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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: April 1, 2025 Duration: 2:37:12Space Recording
Short Summary
The market is characterized by trends of cautious optimism, economic uncertainty, and strategic positioning amidst tariff concerns. Growth in sectors like telehealth and AI continues, while declines in biotech and tech stocks reflect broader market volatility. Partnerships and innovations in healthcare and technology are shaping future market dynamics.
Full Transcription
What is up, everyone?
We had a little bit of a glitch there over on Jordan Space.
Decided to just go ahead and open up, continue the discussion over here on Stocks on Spaces,
and then we'll roll at the top of the hour into our Stocks on Spaces normal discussion.
So a little bonus content from the Stocks on Spaces account today.
Evan, what's up
i haven't heard your voice in a while no it's been i'm so ready to just get back in one place
and not be traveling anymore it's been way too long i'm tired it's very cool stuff though you
see the uh the video i posted yesterday of the spacex launch that was only one of those that was
like a side thing for what i was here for. It was actually pretty cool. But yeah, that was my first time seeing lunch.
Gav was telling us this morning.
I think it was on the Tesla space.
He was telling us that you guys landed and sprinted across the parking lot to catch a piece of the first one or something like that.
Yeah, yeah.
Because we were doing stuff and the guy was like, if we don't leave right now, we're going to miss it.
So the guy whipping it around the place.
Oh, yeah.
So I was relieving the guy can't find his car.
And then all of a sudden we find like just a group of firemen and the guy's
like, all right, I know where my car is. Can you take me there?
So we hop in the fire truck and then we go from there.
We get in the guy's car. He's whipping it around.
We get there with like a minute to spare.
And then we're just running through the parking lot to get the perfect view.
And so the guy got us there with like a minute to spare and then we're just running through the parking lot to get the perfect view and so the guy got us there with like 45 seconds to spare horrible storytelling here for myself but uh it was quite the harrowing tale from the guy plus one i got a good photo from
it yeah no it looks like really cool i have a quick question before we continue as we get some
of our speakers back what what is the like polar mission stuff like did you look into it at all i
was i didn't dig into that i was kind of confused by what the mission actually was no i don't even
know what we're talking about on the on the uh spacex launch oh so there was two different
launches we saw the first one which i think was just spacex uh starlink satellites the second one
was a crude launch um where the guy i think it was like paid to go on there. I didn't look too deep into it, truthfully. I'll do
that after this.
But yeah, I don't know.
It was very cool in person. I want to go to
Texas and see the other one.
it's been interesting.
We're getting... Tomorrow's a big day, so
I'm excited for that.
It should be interesting.
We have some cool interviews coming up as well.
And then earnings season starts next week, right?
I believe it's April 11th, right?
Is when JPMorgan is?
Yeah, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo, BlackRock, all that day.
It's eight trading days away, Evan.
So you need to get back in place because you're about to get a lot busier.
Yeah.
Actually, you're probably going to be very busy the rest of this week, too, to be 100%
honest.
Oh, yeah.
Well, we'll see what ends up happening.
I know I was looking at the earnings calendar on earnings up for a little bit, and this
week we didn't have much in that department.
The macro did have a couple of things, but honestly, nothing too, too crazy either.
What are the biggest earnings this week?
ExxonMobil?
Is that on the calendar?
Really?
Interesting.
Yeah, ExxonMobil
is probably the only big
name that, I mean, RH maybe,
a decent-sized name, tomorrow afternoon.
Today, there's only one company
over, I don't even know this company,
NCNO.
Encino is the only company with a 1 billion market cap or bigger that's reporting today yeah i've seen stock but
i don't really know much about the company but excellent 100 billion plus that's a big company
reporting on thursday and energy's been doing well lately actually
but how was trading been for you guys?
What's the market been like?
I didn't trade today,
to be honest. I traded yesterday,
which is unlike me, but
there's nothing clean for me
today, personally.
So you didn't buy news back in
until you attend? Nothing for me no i am waiting to dump a
ton of cash into spy though when the time's right i'm not there yet we're we're getting pretty close
to my cost basis on qqq we were they were like within one percent yesterday at the lows when i
was looking it might have got closer where we know my cost basis on qq right now is four five four seventy four it's only up 2.8
getting close and i would definitely be buying more once it gets under that that is my long-term
position yeah we had some decent movement today though just not didn't get what I wanted to see for any setups.
And then I know a lot of people are buying this dip.
I'm holding off on buying it, even though I think this is going to turn into probably a great dip to buy,
because I want to see multiple consecutive months to the downside.
And anytime we've had a real cycle down, you've seen that on SPY.
If you put SPY on a monthly, I mean, that's what we've seen every real time. So this is our first month,
this last month that we just closed up to the downside. And I want to see more. I want to see
that continue for me to really want to throw some heavy cash in the investment side of things. But
at the same time, who knows, we might rock it back to all time highs from here, which again,
I don't think is going to happen, but we might do that. And in that case, great,
my long term investments go back to where they were, but I'm just not ready to buy yet, to be
honest. But I do think all this, all the tariff crap and all the uncertainty that gets brought
to the market is just, it's going to benefit us, even though it doesn't seem like it in right away, right, because prices start dropping and everything. But at the end of the day, it's going to benefit us, even though it doesn't seem like it right away, right?
Because prices start dropping and everything.
But at the end of the day,
it's just bringing an opportunity
that I think will benefit us in the future.
So I'm loving it.
It's bringing the better moves intraday too.
I'm sure, Emp, you've noticed that.
Oh, was that a subtle way of you telling us
you're in McDonald's right now?
Maybe I should be.
I kind of need a McMuffin.
You said I'm loving it by the way I don't know if you're like why did he say that
no I hear something cool I see we got Ariel up here too but I actually
speaking of socks on spaces I'm at stock talk this weekend for the first oh did
you how was that how much was how much was there There's about to be a picture coming up. How much was the tariff, Demeter?
25%. Actually, there might be a post coming up from Stocks on Spaces right now.
Some people might say it's a face reveal.
Some people might say it's not.
His voice doesn't match his face, does it?
Well, first of all, my face is covered.
No, I think it does. I think he's shown his face does it uh no well first of all my face is covered um no i think it does you guys i think he's shown his face let's see no i've seen his i've seen a picture of him and to me that i gotta
say i did not expect that voice to come out of that in person he does stock talks might actually
be louder in person honestly it's really funny we'll save we'll save all uh talks for for any
dot com spaces let me say for it but honestly i was it's crazy we've'll save we'll save all uh talks for one of these back on spaces let me
say for it but honestly i was it's crazy we've been doing this for three years and
i only met in person now and yes i did get tariff 25 percent did you uh i guess you didn't get to
meet leo though i think that would be the real milestone no i actually that's true i gotta go
down there go to a maps game with him and just make fun of him i'll buy him mastic that actually that's true I gotta go down there go to a Mavs game with him and just make fun of
him I'll buy him Mavs tickets that's that's actually a good idea all right cool I'm gonna
buy a Mavs season tickets next year well oh season tickets nah I'm kidding but I see we got some uh
I see we got some of the crew up here okay we can kick it around a little bit shout out to Jordan
for rugging the last basis.
I'm so sorry.
I'm literally sitting in my room on Wi-Fi.
I have no idea what happened.
So my bad.
Oh, it's been X in general over the last, like, ever since that first, I mean, it was
like a week or two ago when that first attack happened.
But honestly, the last, like, probably week or so, it's just been very glitchy in general.
There's been, like, points of the day where, like like posts don't load or the whole app just stops loading like i know at the end of last week
when i was trying to you know send out some dms and stuff like i couldn't even get in to i couldn't
get anything to load so it's been a it's been an interesting time i guess uh maybe xai buying x or
whatever merging whatever you want to call it maybe that does something maybe it did
something bad actually i don't know i was gonna say maybe it's maybe it's solve a problem but
maybe it's just making it worse but um we we did hear some thoughts from from ariel and uh i do
want to throw it around we got wolfie up here we'll be we've been talking before uh we had a
little technical difficulty there we were talking about just coming out of the last earnings season
kind of recapping that and uh planning on the next one that is eight trading days away, actually.
And kind of what the plan is, is it sit and wait? I think that's been kind of the general
consensus among a lot of conversations in general right now. But as we get through this tariff news
coming over the next few days and then back into earnings season.
What's your plan of attack? What's on your mind? And how are you?
I'm good. I don't think anything really changes from a game plan perspective.
Ahead of earnings, we have the headline tomorrow.
And you got the numbers on Friday, followed by the thing that's flying under the radar is this TikTok ban headline
is it going to get re-banned is it not uh is there going to be any sort of tip for tap from China
and now China Japan and South Korea collectively which there was a headline yesterday saying that
they've uh started to basically plan and prep collectively so So I think that's kind of like what you got to
get through first. And then any reciprocity from the tariff front, you've got, you know,
I'm going to tear a few 25% and then someone says 30 and then they say 35 and it's, you know, this,
this headline war going into earnings. I think anyone who's going to come up um let's say less than par
is going to my opinion likely blame the tariff stuff on it because if you remember back to
the throes of the inflationist transitory days any ceo or any cfo or any misprint, they use the inflation headlines as an excuse.
Like if a company,
I remember Snap was like the bellwether,
quote unquote,
even though it's not really a bellwether,
that bled tariffs for some of the stuff
that they went through in,
I think it was summer of 22.
And then it was just like a precursor
for the rest of the entire tech space to kind of sell
off. But I don't know how we could mitigate that, for lack of a better term, ahead of
the headline prints themselves. So I thinko is that feels like some things are going
to be squishy they're going to probably use that as a as a kitchen sink my my thing
they cut out he Is he gone?
Is he back?
He's gone for me.
He cut out like mid-center.
I don't hear anything for a while.
Now he's a listener.
Oh, boy.
X is so weird, dude.
Oh, gosh.
All right.
Well, we're having a hot afternoon right now here on this app
but yeah in general area up here too right yeah we uh we got a lot of his thoughts ariel did did
you have anything else uh that's just on your mind in general um no i mean i was personally
hoping that today would be you you know, the potential start
of a rally, um, at least just some oversold rally.
Um, but again, I, I also was a little bit weary buying stocks into supply today because
it felt like yesterday was a bit of window dressing.
And then to me, it just, you know, I'm watching these stocks, you know, NMAX and WTF, you
know, I think that one,
they couldn't have labeled that one any better. It just feels like, you know, traders are just,
you know, they're looking for, there's still a little too much froth in the market, even with
as much as things have come down. So I don't know if just sentiment is, you know, things have gotten so bad that they're good kind of deal.
And the reality is, is, you know, from like the swing perspective, what growth names look good?
I understand, you know, some people having, you know, five and 10 year outlooks on their favorite on hood or Uber or toast or, you know, their favorite companies in the world.
or, you know, their favorite companies in the world, fine. But the reality is, is if you're
Fine.
a swing trader, you know, what's offering like a low risk setup, that's just not running into
supply and rejecting right now. That's like what I'm having a hard time finding. It's just like
everything that, you know, pops up even as simple as an MSTR. It's like, you know, you kind of get
back into the declining 10 day and, and you know, then you're heavy for the rest of the day. So I don't know. And the stocks that are making the
absolute biggest moves over the last few days, they're all these either fresh IPOs or kind of
crap, small caps. So I don't really know what to think here, to be totally honest with you.
Gold's doing nothing wrong. It's just pulling back after kind of an extended move. Crude oil names look just fine. Semiconductors
still look kind of rough to me. So yeah, I mean, my thoughts are kind of let's wait and see what
earnings are going to look like. And it's not even what the earnings look like. It's the reaction to
the earnings because I can read an earnings report like AVGO last quarter and say, wow, you know, the CEO is super bullish and,
you know, that was a great report. And, you know, they raise guidance and, you know,
it just gets completely sold off the following day. You know, I don't like to get in front of
price when it's not agreeing with the quote unquote good report. So I think
just, you know, a report could be bad and price could be going up and that's more important
to the overall price structure of a chart than it is, you know, the report being good and price
going down, right? I'm not going to argue with, you know, what the big institutions are doing
with, with stocks. So if they continue to sell them off, I'm not really going to get in the way of that. And then on the flip side,
you know, it is kind of negative out there in the market. And, you know, again, I don't want
to pick on Tom Lee, but every dip has been a good viable dip for him. And, and every pundit on CNBC
seems to agree. So, you know, until they're capitulating, until they finally start to sing a different tune, it's hard to get bullish.
I mean, you know, I know a broken clock is right twice a day.
So if you just keep saying every dip is a viable dip, eventually it'll work.
But, you know, comparing even this market to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, I mean, you know, when you weren't even alive in 1962, it's like it's hard to wrap my brain around the sort of bullishness that I'm seeing just because price has come down. When the reality
is, is when price came down and the last time we had like a really nice 10% retrace, you know,
excluding like the Japan scare last year, you know, was in, was in like August, September,
October of 23. And when we were getting into November, we had a
bunch of bullish charts, whether it was ANET or DEC or Uber or ANET, DEC, Uber, AMD. I mean,
so there was just a lot of Bible merchandise in the growth space where stocks are making 52-week
or all-time highs, even Netflix, right? And Netflix
gapped up middle of October and the market still continued lower for two weeks. But what did
Netflix do? Netflix just went sideways. And then the second that the markets gave us, you know,
some follow through ends of October, first day of November, right? Netflix is off to the races.
Deck is off to the races. A-Net's off to the races. AMD likewise off to the races. Anet's off to the races. AMD likewise, Uber as
well. So it's like you had so much more viable merchandise above key moving averages where
you're not just fighting a bunch of overhead supply. And that's the problem that we've got
right now. We got tons of overhead supply. So am I just going to sit there and fight that?
I don't think so. There's no sense in me doing that. And charts with the best bases with the least amount of
overhead supply are in the energy space. And nobody really likes energy names. Nobody really
likes utilities. I mean, nobody likes consumer staples, aka grocery stores. Nobody likes tobacco
companies. Those are the charts that look cleanest and the best. And I get it. They're slow. They're
not sexy, but it's what's going up right now. And I get it. They're slow. They're not sexy.
But it's what's going up right now.
And they're going up because institutions like them.
And in the meantime, everything else is just kind of getting its ass kicked.
And I don't want to cherry pick a bottom because what goes low can go lower.
I mean, I was just looking again at Moderna today, and it was just getting worse.
So, again, when do things stop
going down? I don't think anybody knows. And even in NVIDIA, along with the rest of the semis,
they're in stage four downtrends. It can go lower. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if we're
looking at NVIDIA sub a hundred here pretty soon and then lower maybe. So I'm not bullish on prior
leaders just because they once were leaders.
They're going to need much bigger bases.
They're going to have to clear up some of that overhead supply.
They're going to have to rinse out some of these dip buyers.
And, you know, that's just the nature of the beast.
So, you know, we'll see.
I mean, today, a positive that I can spin is Bitcoin's holding up pretty well.
But then again, on the flip side of it, coin, not so much,
you know, MSTR gave up a big chunk of its gain. So, you know, for me, it's just sidelines because,
you know, any new names that I try buying, like I tried Uber today and, you know, it had a nice
pop off of 72 bucks and, you know, it effectively round trip that most of the move. And then I tried SE
and then that just really didn't go anywhere. So there's no sense in just like forcing the issue
when you're not really gaining traction on new longs. So it's better to just be patient,
either wait for some real panic and we'll know when it hits. But for now, even if you just look
at the VIX, which I know some people do, there's no real panic because this has just been, you know, really like a
structured sell-off where they're just kind of taking down semis. And then today they're taking
down some drug manufacturers and they're taking down the next group and the next group and the
next group. And what's holding up best, like tobacco companies, consumer staples, like grocery
stores, like Kroger and Ollie. And, you know,
like that's what's holding up. So it's not exciting. So I'm not looking to buy those either.
And in the meantime, I think it's just best to sit on your hands, wait for a better uptrend.
And then, you know, the market will tell us kind of when the coast is clear, because
you'll go to buy a breakout and it'll work and it'll have follow through. Right now you go to buy a breakout and you're really
just buying into supply and then it's, you know, you're red on it not long after. So, you know,
I don't think that that's the way to go right now in the market. And I'm not here to, you know,
call a bottom or cherry pick a bottom and think that that's like a generational low.
It's a waste of mental capital in my opinion yeah great thoughts sir ariel wolfie would you get you back yeah can
you hear me yes sir i don't know what happened um yeah so mid thought basically, I think any of these companies that might have some sort of drag or some sort of missed guide or revision or anything like that, I think it's just prudent on their part.
But it's likely that they use the tariff headlines as a caveat for why things aren't going as well as they should be.
Headlines is a caveat for why things aren't going as well as they should be.
I also think that we're going to get a test here in the next couple of days with this Tesla delivery number, right?
So if we get a number and it's terrible and the stock can stomach it, it can be like a measure for risk appetite in the market.
And so I think I want to pay attention to that as well.
But outside of that, I think for the first couple of earnings, like the main ones that
are the main one out of the banks that I want to pay attention to is JP Morgan.
Jamie Dimon tends to give some sort of clarity around the macro picture as well
as some kind of sentiment check for the rest of the market.
And so I just kind of want to go off of that.
Outside of that, like all the other spaces that we've done the last couple days, thought
we were going to get a retest of those lows, maybe an undercut.
And then the pain trade I felt was higher, pain
trades higher, we press right up against that five day rejected today. That, you know, today's
highs basically kind of set the tone for that line of demarcation for further upside, or
just be like a bear rally into a rejection. And so basically 5,500 to today's highs, that's your range.
And then if you look at some of the darlings, some of the favorites, a lot of them undercut support, rally back into the resistance level that was support prior, and they're still there.
I say that as someone who took Avgo and who took Microsoft off of the sell-offs yesterday morning. I had Tesla since
the 217, sold most of it, got a couple of runners left. But outside of that, you just kind of need
to go headline to headline, kind of need to go shock to shock, and then go from there. The main
thing that I'd illustrate again is this month,
we don't really have, no, we don't really have,
we don't have an FOMC date.
So what Powell says on Friday should be a creative or a headwind,
depends on what he says and how he says it.
And then if you, if like the terrified line comes
and it's like not as bad as people fear,
you could get a situation where you have like a little bit of a rally for a couple of weeks.
But I don't think it'll be as broad-based as it could be because, again, you have that earnings period and the buyback period blacks out ahead of some of those names.
So, again, just headline to headline.
The earnings prints themselves aren't going to matter as much as guidance.
For the megas, you want to pay attention to CapEx, any reduction CapEx. Honestly, the Microsoft color on some of these headlines that we've seen from Microsoft, if they could provide
any color around it, will breathe life into some of these semis, or it'll really bury them. Just
depends on what they say. And just the primary thing is if it's a trader's
market currently, not an investor's market. So if you want to trade levels, have a ball,
I'd say just keep it light and keep it tight because you can be offsides very quickly.
And then the next thing you know, your favorite trade turns into a long-term investment, right?
And then the last anecdotal piece of evidence I'll give you is
there's been a lot of people in the last couple of years that have made a name for themselves,
for lack of a better term.
I heard you guys talking about Tom Lee and you got Tom Lee coming on.
There's a lot of people that have been uh uh you know kind of want
to be the next tom lee in the last couple of years and they've they've been who is this tom lee guy
everyone keeps talking about it's uh evan's evan's uh interviewing him tomorrow i thought evan was
here to tell you but uh he's a he's an analyst he's a he wears thick black glasses, Asian guy, always on CNBC, always telling you to buy the dip
in a bull market. Everybody has him on, tells you how great he is. And when things turn,
like Bitcoin did in the late 20-teens and early 2020s, the buy the dip mantra kind of goes away
until the next cycle.
So he's been right, not shitting on Tom Lee.
And the point is that for the last couple of years, a lot of people have picked stocks
and given you a bull case for those stocks.
And they've been right because we've had a bullish market.
And some of those people have not been able to differentiate between, is this just someone who knows their
shit or is this someone who just got fortunate?
The tell that I'm going to give you is over the next couple of months, as you get more
dispersion in the market, a lot of these guys and girls, not going to be sexist here, who have been fundamental investors.
As their names stop working fundamentally, they'll slowly turn into technical traders.
So just be very cautious.
And I say that because, again, if you want to take shots in this market, you got to have
defined levels, be really, really concise about it.
And if it doesn't work, it doesn't work because very quickly, your fundamental
case can turn into a long-term trap. Just Moderna was mentioned earlier. Look at that stock. It was
like a $300 stock now trading sub 30. So just be cautious and stay nimble.
I did pin up top. I was being a little facetious there. Tom Lee is doing an interview on Spaces
tomorrow with Mr. Stock Market News that he dropped. Obviously, that was a softball. There
he is. That was a softball toss for a shout out to that. But I am excited to hear that interview
tomorrow when anybody smart like Tom lee talks i i definitely listen and
you know try to uh try to see what they're seeing of course so that will be interesting that will
be tomorrow there is a uh link up in the nest to uh set a reminder for that and uh wolfie i do
appreciate your commentary there around no doubt i just i don't want to be very clear i'm not taking
shots at tom lee just so we're clear no no no yeah i didn't take it that way yeah i want to make sure everybody else in here like i don't want you know this guy
shit on tom lee like i don't want that smoke i'm not taking shots at anybody
no but everything with a grain of salt i think that should be a general rule in the market in
general right but obviously at the same time uh now more than never uh with the general talk i
hear from everyone is this this wait and see what's going to
happen next. Now, there is a scenario here where everyone is preparing for the absolute worst,
and it's not as bad as may be feared. And we've seen that happen in individual names,
but across the entire board here, especially everyone that's affected by these tariffs.
but across the entire board here, especially everyone that's affected by these tariffs.
So it will be interesting to see if that scenario presents itself.
Stock Sniper, if you're available, would love to get your commentary.
Any thoughts?
Because I know you got cut off in that last space as well.
But if you're not available, no worries.
Give it a second.
Yeah, I'm available.
There he is.
Can you hear me all right?
Yes, sir. Awesome, awesome. yeah i'm available there he is can i can you hear me all right yes sir awesome awesome yeah you know um i was kind of saying before in the last market uh similar to what i've been saying for the last
few weeks um as the market continues to fall down here i'm just slowly buying more stock i'm not in
a rush to really completely add everything that i can and And at the same time, again, I don't know if we're going to trade higher or lower,
and I don't really think anybody does.
I think the biggest talk right now is the tariffs, obviously.
And, you know, we're in a massive speculation.
We don't know what tariffs are actually going to come and what is and isn't going to happen.
Considering this, everything is just a speculation.
We've sold off more than 10%, slightly bounced back and then sold off again.
But again, not a single tariff has actually been implemented yet.
So nobody really knows exactly what's, what is going to happen and what's not going to
happen.
We're seeing new headlines come out every single day.
Um, all my perspective, I'm looking to set myself up for a better position later on in
my life.
So, you know, if we can continue to fall
down and I can continue to see some ideal prices, you know, and better than what I currently have,
obviously. And, you know, just in general, companies, quality companies that I really like
and companies that I already own, I will look to average down on these companies if possible,
you know, especially if it is news that is unrelated to the stocks. Those are some of my
favorite dips to buy.
But personally, I'm just sitting on my hands.
I'm waiting.
I want to see, you know, we could go down another 10% for all I know.
Or we could bounce back from here.
The bottom could be in.
I don't really know.
I'm not going to act like I know or anybody really knows.
But as far as that goes, that's pretty much how I'm taking this market.
With hims and hers, could I talk about that one briefly?
Please do.
We got some really big news on HIMSS and HERS today.
And I know a lot of you guys probably saw this already.
But HIMSS and HERS is going to sell EOS set bound through telehealth platforms.
So basically now, you know, this is already a drug that we know is
selling very well. And now HIMSS total address, their total addressable market just increased
exponentially today. I think that this is amazing that they're going to be able to, you know,
sell this and they're basically white labeling products. You know, HIMSS isn't really founding
drugs. They're, you know, selling already existing drugs under their name, which is totally
fine. They're buying it from wholesalers like Eli Lilly. I think having this new product here
is going to increase their revenue, generally speaking. I think that there's going to be a
whole new market now. And the one thing that I really like about this company is they're entering
into new markets and they're trying new things. The know. The news definitely, the market definitely loves seeing this.
You know, we can see we're up over 11.5% today.
Amazing day for the stock.
But in the future, and especially coming into this next earnings,
I'm going to be really interested.
I don't think any of this Eli Lilly Zetbound is going to be reflected
in the next earnings report for him and hers.
But we've seen consistent revenue growth for every single quarter, actually.
And, you know, I'd like to see that trend continue.
And I know a lot of people are going to be watching for that one.
And, you know, another big question for them is where they set their guidance at.
You know, everybody is going to say, oh, GLP-1s are going to follow through and the
company's not going to survive.
You know, there's lots of different reasons for people to hate the stock, you know, but
the way I see it is they just keep adapting and finding a new way.
Go ahead, Wolf.
Yeah, quick follow-up on the HIMSS thing.
Long-time HIMSS holder since eight.
There was a headline today that Lilly's's gonna go after a lot of these
off-market uh glp1 quote-unquote imitators i think is the word they use so in it you know the
the idea that the company the stock's shaking off the headlines is not a bad thing but i would want
to keep a keep an eye on any sort of headline risk moving forward for something like that.
I just wanted to throw that in there for all of the HIMSS watchers.
What was the stock time for?
What was the full headline that came out today on that?
I remember curing it.
It was something Eli.
The one I saw was Eli Lilly with one one of those drugs what was the name zef something with a z bound
yeah so what was the full headline around that uh the full headline is him to sell eli lily's
zip bound through telehealth platform um yeah it's not it's pretty straightforward there i feel like
um no there's
another headline as well though the other there was two headlines yeah the other headline is eli
lily uh is targeting companies making copycat versions of its weight loss glp treatment so
there's two headlines the the the distribution of eli lily's product is a net positive but i'm just
saying that moving forward when they say they're
targeting companies that make copycat versions of its weight loss drug, are they going to exempt
something like HIMSS? Is this like a trial to see if they could deliver it? Would they create an
additional partnership? Or is it going to be something that's like, you soften them up and
then hit them later? So it's just something you want to keep an eye on if you're an investor.
I've owned the stock since $8. I'm an investor. I've owned the stock since eight bucks.
I'm an investor.
I love the telemedicine space.
It's just something that I want to keep
in the back of my mind.
Awesome.
Well, we are going to just kind of roll
into our normal programming at this point.
And we'll continue the conversation there. we'll start to kick it around here.
Take a quick market update here. Looking around the market, we are, well, the S&P is red by not very much, 0.28%. QQQ is at break-even. We'll call it green because it's green on my screen,
a percent. QQQ is at breakeven. We'll call it green because it's green on my screen, but it's
not by much. And IWM down half a percent. The Dow Jones also down almost half a percent.
We went a long way to go nowhere today. A little dip in the morning, big rally, and then a rejection.
And we're basically at the same place that we finished up yesterday's trading session.
If they were going to close today as the most confusing spot possible,
I think on a daily chart, they might be pulling this off. We still obviously have just under an
hour left until the market does close today. Some notable movers, Tesla is up 3.8%. It was up as
much as 6% earlier today. Microsoft up over a percent still. Google also up over a percent as well as Meta
right there at that same spot. Apple is red. Nvidia is red. Netflix having a rough day down
1.72 percent. Hanging out at the lows right now over on Netflix. Those are the ones that kind of
stuck out to me as I go through kind of the bigger tech names and stuff.
There was something out of that. Newsmax is up insanely again today.
I don't even know if anybody wants to talk about that one, of course.
But that IPO yesterday, just unbelievable.
It's at like an $18 billion market cap at this point.
So crazy things happening in some areas of the market and not much happening in other areas.
Hems, that was previously mentioned, up 5.5% currently. And yeah, with that, let's start to
throw it around. Oh, CrowdStrike up 2%. That one just popped up in front of my face.
Let's start to throw it around and get everyone's thoughts. Obviously, we all know tomorrow is
Liberation Day as coined by President Trump, and we will get a lot of information, I guess, out of that from the Rose Garden tomorrow.
And with that said, let's start tossing it around.
Logical, you made it up here, I believe, before most people.
And I want to throw it over to you first and see what thoughts you may have today.
Sounds good.
Although I think Ariel was here before me,
but I'll be quick and I'll let Ariel go after. Look, I talk about biotech a lot. Holy crap,
that entire sector got decimated. So a lot of my bioholdings absolutely got cooked,
which is really sad because I thought we were, you know, making progress there through this year. XBI is down 10% on the week. And if you look up
the clinical stage biotech ETF, which is BBC, it is down 14% a week in the last week. And it's down
like 32% in the last three months. Holy crap. Basically,
the bottom fell out of that thing. It's really tough to be a biotech investor. Basically,
Friday night after markets closed, you got news that the FDA commissioner was ousted. He
signed in his, he handed in his resignation, which is such fun news to have right after markets closed for the week.
And yeah, I mean, basically everything was straight gap down yesterday.
I was hoping that maybe, you know, that was capitulation.
Nope, XBI down another three something percent today.
today. There's a lot more weakness in the clinical stage names because now there's a lot more
uncertainty around, you know, approval, timelines, the things get pushed back because it's not just
the FDA commissioner that left at this point. Now we're getting news that a lot of senior heads are
leaving. And, you know, they're obviously firing a lot of people through, you know, the government
workforce reduction.
Yeah, it's a freaking mess at the FDA. So this is definitely not what that sector needed. It's the exact opposite. And I think a lot of investors are basically just hoping to see,
you know, how this ends up getting resolved. But clearly grim stocks are just selling with
no bottom in sight. I had to cut three clinical stage biotech names
today because I could just tell that the selling was likely to continue. I was hoping for some sort
of, you know, resemblance of a bottom after yesterday's action, but nope. So I think a lot
of investors, I mean, I'm sure there's a bunch of biotech funds that are basically enforced
liquidations at this point. Given that kind of
sharp move down, yeah, it's crazy bad. But it's weird because we're in a time where China's coming
out with all sorts of gene therapies and they're boasting about how they're getting ahead of
America. And then you just have this gutting of this healthcare system here. So it really doesn't
make much sense. I think it won't last forever. But at this point, you know, this healthcare system here. So it really doesn't make much sense. Um,
I think it won't last forever, but at this point you're basically catching a falling knife. And
I think a lot of the investors are get me out and let's wait for clarity and see what happens. So,
you know, I think, um, basically the commercial stage names are a little bit more, uh, you know,
they're insulated from a lot of this
because they already have approvals so i'm fortunate that a lot of my biotech names are
commercial stage i only allocate you know two percent positions here and there for clinical
names but i mean the the biotech names just in general it's just like for selling it's probably
people who you know even the commercial names are taking a hit and even though they're real
businesses with real products and real revenues and growth etc
you know people probably try to supplement some of the losses they're feeling elsewhere with
still exiting some of those other names so yeah it's just brutal um for selling if you have
duration you're probably going to find so many great bargains at this point so many of these
names trading at like below cash on the balance sheet of this you know at these valuations so it's like i don't know it you know clearly you
want to start putting a shopping list together because one way or another this will resolve
but in the near time in near term it's there's a lot of uncertainty but uh from a market perspective
i'm actually pretty constructive here as long as we don't take out yesterday's lows
i am full-on long at this point no hedges to the downside. If we end up, you know, tomorrow's
Liberation Day, you know, I think there's a lot of people that are basically taking down a lot of
their exposure. And it's definitely not an environment to be too, you know, excited to the
upside. I'm not like swinging calls or anything like that, but I own equities and names that I'm buying for a lot cheaper today than I was two, three months ago. Um, let's just kind
of see how tomorrow goes. If you know, markets, you know, if it's really gross and there's nothing
you can say positive about it and the markets react poorly, I'll definitely be getting a lot
more aggressive, uh, defensive, I should say. And, but in the meantime, you know, I'm feeling
decent being long here, but I'm not, you know, I'm not being silly about it. Like, you know,
if tomorrow's news is truly bad and the price action confirms how bad it is, I'll take it on
the chin for being long into the moment. And I will, you know, cut some longs, get defensive,
And I will, you know, cut some lungs, get defensive, etc.
But yeah, going into tomorrow, I think a lot of people are expecting the worst.
So if it's slightly better than expected or we priced it too much, then I could see also us bouncing from here, especially with the double bottom we put in yesterday.
Some relative strength as well from many individual names.
RSP holding up decently, showing that, you know, names outside of the MAG-7 are doing okay. So yeah, let's just kind of see what happens, take it day by day,
watch the price action, etc. Appreciate those thoughts. It'll be interesting what people
think here as far as if, you know, tomorrow, do we think we've priced this in pretty well? Do we
think maybe it's not as bad as feared and we get some type of pop to the upside? Or do we think we've priced this in pretty well? Do we think maybe it's not as bad as feared and we get some type of pop to the upside?
Or do we think it is as bad as feared and everything does come on?
So it will be interesting to see how that plays out and what everyone's thoughts are around that.
Thanks for going there, Logical.
Appreciate that.
Let's throw it around.
Mike Larson.
We've got our man Mike Larson from The Money Show.
Great to have you on Spaces again, Mike. I want to see what thoughts you have around the market these days.
Yeah, hey, thanks for having me. Glad to join the conversation.
Sometimes you got to try and really work hard to find something to talk about.
I don't really think any of us are having a hard time with that this week with the whole Liberation Day stuff going on.
It's interesting when I look at
the markets, we just wrapped up Q1, obviously. It's crazy because towards maybe the November,
December timeframe, if you were to say foreign markets were going to dramatically outperform
US markets, small caps were going to stink, treasuries were going to beat the S&P,
gold was going to be up 17, 18% in three months, and emerging markets were going to look
great, somebody would probably look at you like you needed to have your head examined. Yet that's
what happened in Q1. It was really sort of the opposite of what the narrative was heading into
year end and sort of the post-election narrative would have told you to basically be long everything
you were short and short everything you were long or overweight everything you were underway and
vice versa. So it's kind of interesting that we have the table
set that way heading into this big week and all the news that's out there. I think, you know,
yesterday's action was potentially encouraging from a technical standpoint, we kind of retested,
you know, these lows here, what we're trying to hold, we're trying to see if just retracing all
of the post-election euphoria is all that needs to happen, or if things are truly going to get
worse. I'd say it's a pretty pivotal point in the market. My sense, and from some of the people on
our Money Show roster, like some of the experts that I follow, that I trust, that I really enjoy
their perspectives on, are still pretty encouraged that we tend to think we
can hold here. We've priced in a lot of potential downsides. So even news that's only moderately
less bad than expected could really ignite this market. I guess one caveat to that is
Washington leaks like a sieve in almost, you know, any administration,
there's always leaks to the press, there's always people talking off stage and kind of telling you
what to expect. But if you look at some of the reporting in the last 48, 72 hours or so, it's
all over the map, you know, it's, maybe it's going to be minimalist, maybe it's going to be
reciprocal, maybe it's gonna be maximalist, maybe it's going to be across the board, you know, like
depending on who you're reading, and not just what day you're reading, what hour of the day you're reading,
the news is really conflicting. So I think one of the reasons the market is so uncertain
is that usually you have at least a decent idea of what the plan is going to be. But, you know,
politics aside, this is the kind of administration and kind of environment that, you know,
you can wake up with a whole different ballgame 12, 24 hours later.
So I think that that probably magnifies the amount of ground we're going to cover one way or the other
on this news simply because Wall Street isn't really able to sort of pre-plan and pre-position
for what the big news is going to be because, frankly, we don't really know.
So wild day tomorrow probably, maybe wild end of the week.
I'm modestly bullish still.
I still think that we've priced in a lot of risk and sentiment has gotten way
negative for reality. But, you know,
I do have to acknowledge that a lot could change just, you know,
in 24 hours.
Absolutely. Mike, one question i just wanted to jump in there because like
you know i think if you look i think people are just quick to say like
you know we only have a few percent off the highs on the index levels but most of us on here are not
focused at the index level we're focusing on names. And a lot of times in pullbacks, you see individual names bottom before the end of
season.
Like a lot of really good names that I follow.
Fundamentals are good.
Stories haven't necessarily deteriorated.
Maybe there's some like, you know, industry data that's coming out that's showing some
slowing or something like that.
You know, that's all possible.
But a lot of these names are down 50, 60, 70%.
It's freaking nuts.
So, you know, I've been on the side of like,
yeah, I mean, we could easily go lower, et cetera.
But I mean, we've just priced in insane downside
and it is more or less,
I know we were looking for a reason to sell,
but, you know, it's more or less from the tariff stuff
and it's causing uncertainty in businesses and they're cutting back spending and consumers
potentially as well. But again, a lot comes down to tomorrow, I guess, but we have definitely
priced in. My favorite names are down 40, 50 percent. And I would not consider them that they
were overvalued 50 percent ago. So from a fundamental perspective, I think that there are bargains in this market.
But when the trend is down, not a lot of things are going to work for you, regardless of the fundamentals or the relative valuations and stuff like that.
Yeah, I think that's a great point.
You're right.
If you're not hugging the index and you're trading individual stocks, especially in momentum tech, AI, a lot of the stuff that was hot.
Yeah, no doubt that the numbers are worse. The degree of potential downside risk that's been priced in is a lot worse. So arguably that could be an encouraging sign or something that sends
you into this number in a better frame of mind as a trader and particularly as a longer term investor.
Mike, let me ask you one follow-up question here, and then we'll continue around the panel.
We're waiting on a lot of this information, obviously, but I've asked this a few times.
Outside of the tariffs, and obviously, sentiment's gotten terrible. You mentioned that,
and we're trying to price this in.
Is anything else around the narrative in your eyes changed other than a lot of these companies obviously pulling back on their guidance and stuff? Is there any other concerns you have
around the market right now? Or do you think most things are solid if we get through the tariff
without any just terrible, terrible news? Yeah, sure. I mean, you know, I've done some
of these other spaces before and I've kind of talked that my shorthand market view, if I had to sum it up with a thesis is be
bold, right? You know, it's been for the greater part of two years, it's made sense to take a more
offensive type approach in your stock portfolio and in your overall portfolio in terms of being
more tilted towards stocks versus bonds and so on. You know, I will say that some of the technical
damage that's been done
has probably had me pulling my horns a little bit. It's kind of a be bold with an asterisk around it.
I don't think recession is the most likely possibility. I don't think this is the start
of a bear market. But I can't ignore some of the deterioration in terms of technical outlook.
And I don't want to be a Pollyanna. So I still tend to lean bullish,
but I think you got to be more selective. I like things like financials. I've been a big bull on
gold, precious metals, and things tied to that mining stocks. Those have been great.
In tech, I think you're probably just going to see this is going to be a year, in my opinion,
we're going to see money that is still long is going to be looking for maybe some new homes.
It's not going to be overloaded in AI and tech and the MAG7 and so on. So I do think as an investor, you know, again, for your longer term money, maybe not just your short term money that you're trading, you know, you do want to shade your portfolio towards some of that stuff that hadn't done much for the last couple of years, but now maybe it is going to take the lead. And you're seeing it already in global stocks.
You're seeing it in emerging and developed market equities outside of the U.S.
So some of these things that haven't worked in a long time are starting to work
and work in a potentially big way.
So I think that's something that's worth paying attention to.
Appreciate those thoughts, Mike.
Blake, let me bring you into the conversation.
Was going to come to you next either way. that hand go up would love to bring you in
hey guys um i was just going to echo some of the the comments that both these gentlemen have just
been making which i fully agree with i don't need like a fine razor tooth comb saying that,
you know,
like by the absolute textbook definition that we're in a bear market,
because as you guys were just noting,
most stocks that,
you know,
a lot of people are following or,
or watching,
I mean,
there's names that are down as you guys just astutely pointed to, 20, 30, 50%. So
when I look at the broader index and I'm like, all right, where's the median stock? Or maybe
let's look at RSP. We're well at that range. So textbook, are they going to write this down at the moment
as a as a full bear market no of course not because it doesn't meet that that definition
um but most stocks have re-rated in a meaningful way um so my my just general take is yes we
basically are already in a bear market um but we all know that stocks and the
actual index levels, they move at different times. So, you know, that's just sort of, I guess, more
picking at the margin there. So when I look at like, though, just how much has been priced in,
how much has been priced in um it just tells me that people are
selling everything and asking questions later so i i think the the news at this point has been
priced in about as rough as it can get now if he goes out tomorrow and says all right we're
it's 25 it's everyone it's every sector it's everyone, it's every sector, it's every material, it's every
this, that, and the other thing, you're going to obviously see more downside. But if you're
looking for just a few different little tells, say you go by each sector and go equal weight,
not market weight, just what are like most stocks doing?
I think really outside of, of course,
tech where all the momentum on wind has been.
And then some of the healthcare space.
I think most recent, this pullback,
has been at a higher low than where we were earlier in March.
So I think that's encouraging.
The VIX hasn't eclipsed that same level.
You start to look at different things,
and I don't know if I'm just picking it at straws here
and just trying to look for some sort of relief and maybe
some bias potentially leaning towards the upside.
But I am seeing a few different
things that would maybe suggest that this move perhaps may be exhausted. And given how awful
expectations are right now, consumers, individual investors, the newsletter writers, big money, small money. I don't think it will take a lot to nudge this market higher,
given just how defensively positioned, how much rotation there's been,
baby out of the bathwater, whatever you want to say.
I think everyone's just quick to basically say, look, you know,
this 10% correction, it feels like a bear market.
You know, all of these growth concerns, it feels like we're already now heading into recession.
I think we're sort of just maybe jumping the gun.
And look, a lot of evidence is pointing to that.
I don't want to dismiss those that that possibility.
that possibility.
But I do think that there are some opportunities
to get excited about on a move higher
if the announcement itself isn't nearly as bad
as what we are all fearing.
And one final point, one of you,
I forgot who was just suggesting, you know,
what's different now versus maybe at the beginning of the year? What have we
has changed or what have we learned? And one thing I would definitely note is earnings.
You know, earnings revisions are now reflecting economic uncertainty. And you can see that in the data,
bottom-up analysts,
there have been net downgradeds
every single week this year.
Now, again, a lot of that is more towards Q1
and some towards Q2.
So people are still sort of hammering away at the idea
of why our expectation is still so high at Q3, Q4.
That's fair.
But I will note that there is definitely a repricing in terms of earnings.
And you're seeing it all across the street. Everyone's taking down their earnings estimates.
Everyone's raising their recession guide. And so it's, and there shouldn't be any surprise,
guys. We saw this in Trump 45. We're seeing it again in 47.
He's going about policy in a different manner. Last time we got the tax cuts,
then we got the tariffs. Now we're doing it in a reverse order. But that's definitely one thing
that has my attention that has notably changed is the earnings coming down. And with that, I'll sort of yield back to the group.
Appreciate those thoughts, Blake. Let me ask you one follow-up question around that. So I am curious to hear what's changed just posing that as the subject matter here of the conversation.
But outside of that, we were running very hot as a market.
Things were screaming to the upside. We saw a lot of these names that were flying probably higher
than they deserve to fly. And if you think about your Palantirs or your HEMS and some of those
names, not to offend anyone maybe that really loves those stocks, but just in general, we were
running pretty hot in the market. Do you think that this cautionary approach right now has
anything to do with where we were in the market before some of this news started coming out?
Yeah, definitely. You saw, obviously, we gapped up on the election. Everything at the time was all,
I mean, just think about how different the narrative was back then. It was all this stuff
that I was sort of just alluding to. It was, you know, tax cuts are coming, deregulation. Gosh, we haven't even gone there. And the market absolutely
ripped higher. And you saw that with some of those names. You're absolutely right. I think
there was just sort of this momentum wind up, not down. And I think a lot of that move came stretch.
And I don't have the numbers in front of me,
but whatever Palantir's price of sales,
and you look at some of these metrics,
and they had obviously way overstretched in one direction.
So the same way that markets can over exaggerate
to the upside, they can do so on the downside.
And a lot of these
names have absolutely re-rated in a very meaningful way um you know we've been telling clients if there
are names on your shopping list it's kind of one of those things plug your nose and go buy maybe
don't you know spend all your dry powder but if there were three or four or five different names that you
had wanted and missed all those different opportunities over the last year,
now you're getting, you know, the opportunity at a huge discount. I'm going to butcher the
quote a little bit, but one of my favorite quotes is the stock market is the only market
like in the world where when things go on sale, people run out of the building.
We've sort of been gifted this opportunity for some really, really good companies now at supremely discounted rates.
They're on 30% off rack sale or maybe even 40%.
Is this the absolute bottom?
Obviously, the chances, the probability of that
are very low, but if you have some patience and like I said, you can sort of leg in, you don't
have to, you know, spend everything. I equate it to like walking into a cold pool. You don't have
to jump, you know, head first in the deep end, you know, walk down the steps, let the water kind of rise
up to your belly, get acclimated, and then sort of then go, you know, wait further in.
If you're patient and you're, you know, these are names that you miss and you're buying good
quality companies, as you know, you guys were previously discussing, a lot of the fundamentals
themselves haven't changed. Now, that can obviously change a lot here in three
weeks when we start getting into earnings season and we really hear from C-suite, okay, we're
taking down guidance here. We're seeing a slowdown in this market. These projects that we were
looking to greenlight, those have come off the boil now. So there's still a lot to learn
as corporate America responds to this, and we're going to learn that in real time in about three weeks.
But for now, fundamentals have not really changed, and you're now looking at some really good buying opportunities.
You just have to put up with the potential that there's a lot more CHOP and maybe some downside from here.
potential that there's a lot more chop and, you know, maybe some downside from here.
Yeah, great thoughts. I've been meaning to ask that to some of the group in general here
is the euphoric stage that we were kind of in, if that's led to any of this or if that makes
anybody think any differently here. So appreciate those comments. Blake, great to have you on stage.
Let's continue around. Mr. Godfather, let's go over your direction next, see if you had any
comments around conversation we're having or anything else that's on your radar today.
Yeah, I'll try to be additive instead of repetitive. I'm sure you guys have been
talking about tariffs at Spaces all day. On that note, we'll just follow up some comments
that Logical made on this FDA transition.
And, um, you know, I do think that there are some, you know, babies out with the bathwater
in this, um, I do get market wanting to sell first and ask questions later when it comes
to wholesale changes at the top of the FDA and staff cuts and what that might mean for
timelines for approvals and all the rest of it.
But, um, you know,, you know, the basic narrative that
caused this real bearish reaction in a lot of these clinical biotechs is that, you know,
you're replacing a guy that's been known as, you know, really sound on scientific rigor,
Peter Marks, with a guy that's been, you know, critical of the FDA, especially when it comes to,
you know, vaccine mandates and all the rest of this.
And he's been sort of spun as anti-science and politicizing and polarizing and all the rest of it.
I think that's a bit stretched.
I think that companies that do have the things that the FDA is looking for will continue
to see and be beneficiaries of what Macri is trying to do here.
I mean, when he was being confirmed, it was quite clear that his focus is just simply, you know,
more cures, more treatments for Americans. Let's use more AI if we need to. We're not going to
replace human involvement, but, you know, let's basically
protect and then enhance the accelerated approval therapy pathway. So, you know, name and point
Capricor Therapeutics, for example, CAPR, you know, here's a company that's got
a drug for cardiomyopathy and indochene muscular dystrophy. And it's particularly focused on pediatric applications.
And, you know, the FDA is partial to approving therapies in rare terminal pediatric diseases,
where there's solid data, there's safety. You know, these are compounds that have gotten every,
every, you know, possible designation, orphan drug, regenerative medicine, advanced therapy,
every possible designation, orphan drug, regenerative medicine, advanced therapy,
the rare pediatric disease designations. These are things that are in line for priority review
vouchers, all the rest of this. This is not going to be wholesale changed. And I mentioned this one
because they're doing a fireside with Piper tomorrow at, I think, noon Eastern. So here's
a stock that was down, I think, 20% over the last two days, just a case in point. So I think there's some overreactions in segments of the market
like that. So I just wanted to bring that up. My two bits worth on the whole tariff side,
and again, I'll try to keep it brief and not be repetitive here. But my view is that,
and you saw this a couple of times today, you know, clearly nobody knows exactly what's going to happen.
But here's what we do know about Trump. Right. He likes to start out strong.
But again, he wants to negotiate deals. So the consensus bear case view, there seems to be a blanket 20 percent tariff.
tariff. Anything less than that is potentially good news. We saw a headline around 1130 this
Anything less than that is potentially good news.
morning with Scheinbaum saying, hey, we're hoping to get this USMCA exemption back in place and
we'll offer up names of drug traffickers and various other things, whatever concessions you
need. There's some rumblings about the UK offering some concessions. I saw, I know it's small, but Israel basically cancelled all tariffs on US goods.
So, you know, to the extent that there are things that are to the positive of that 20% blanket, you will see the stock market rally.
To the extent it's, you know, the other side of that, you'll see the inverse.
I think Morgan Stanley, no, it was JP Morgan came out with a good piece. And I think they're pretty much on track, essentially saying
if the tariffs end up at this consensus, you know, let's say we get, he goes out strong,
we get retaliation, we get escalation, and then ultimately we get reconciliation. He's not going
to just do a
blanket tariff. He wants to do deals. So he's already talked about doing country-specific deals.
He's already talked about doing industry-specific deals, autos, case in point, steel, aluminum,
case in point, pharmaceuticals, chips, champagne, wine, et cetera. So this is just turning the
screws to get everybody to the table, and then deals are going to get done.
So if we end up at that sort of 9% to 10%, that's good for a 2% to 2.5% rally in the market.
And I think both JP Morgan and Goldman came out with about the same conclusion.
If we stick at 20% blanket, it's like another 1.5% downside here. So, you know, you've got to remember that the trade is just 15%
of the economy. It's like, you know, 0.2 or 0.3% of GDP. So it's, you know, I know it's all the
headlines right now, but, you know, it's not the be all and end all. Let me just finish by saying
I'm of the view that there is going to be an air pocket here for Q1 earnings.
And to the extent that we get through tariffs hogging up or sucking all the air out of the headlines,
market is going to turn its attention to Q1 earnings.
And those are tilting more and more red, as one of the other speakers just mentioned.
I'm kind of coming around to the view, though,
now that the market will see through that and say, hey, okay, that was just a period of
uncertainty. And now that we've got a little bit better back, let's focus on what's coming down
the pipe, which is, again, potentially easing a bank regulations, which favor business regulation,
further easing corporate tax cuts, personal tax cuts, you know, all these
stimulative things that will come in the latter half of the year. So I think the market quickly
starts to move past that. If you do put some numbers on, you know, where the index could go
and kind of game out both from a technical as well as a fundamental basis, you know, where
potentially the Fed and Trump put sit, every number that I
get gets me somewhere in this 5,000 to 5,200 range. Goldman says that if it's a 10% tariff
increase across the board as an average, you still get 7% growth in earnings over last year.
So it was 243 last year on the S&P. That gets you to 260. Put a 20 times multiple on that at minimum, you're at 5,200.
If there's downside risk to that, if it's worse, if things get extended, we end up dragging this through into the summer.
You know, maybe it gets haircut down to 250.
20 on that is 5,000.
So either way, you know, this is like 10% max downside from here.
And personally, I don't think we get there.
I think maybe we see five, but that's just my view. And I'm pissing in the wind and don't really know
like everybody else. We do know that uncertainty kills earnings as corporations are frozen. And,
you know, we're seeing it in the consumer numbers as well. And, you know, these people that say
that, oh, well, the soft data, you know, hasn't shown up in hard data yet. I mean, look, it's going to. And, you know, eventually that part of the Fed's mandate with
respect to slowing is going to take precedence in terms of directing interest rates. But it's
going to take a material slowdown and it's going to take, you know, materially more
chance of a recession for the Fed to go there because they are certainly
in a box in the near term in terms of combating near term goods inflation. So, yeah, I ride along
a lot. I'll leave it there, I guess. Appreciate that rundown, Godfather. And I see Kirk has joined us up here on stage.
And if I haven't got to someone, please throw up your hand.
Let me know.
I think we've got around.
I know Ariel and Wolfie are still hanging out here from the other space.
We definitely want to get some continued thoughts from you guys.
But Kirk, how's your day been?
How's Kirk's world?
And what are you seeing out there in this market?
Well, interesting world today.
You'd think that on Wisconsin we wouldn't have an election on April Fool's Day, but we are.
So I'm a little bit late, and I apologize for that because, and this isn't an April Fool's joke,
I dropped my car key down a sewer grate and I got a little bit delayed
in getting back here. So there's that. Everything that Godfather just said, I think is pretty spot
on. I do. I think that earnings are going to continue to see downward revisions, and that is not supportive of high valuations.
I've been doing some research on foreign direct investment and long-term capital flows
into and out of the United States and what's going on in the short term.
You know, we had outflows of foreign money in January out of Treasuries and then again in February.
We don't know the March numbers yet, but it looks like there were outflows again.
And that the money that went into ETFs last week was probably American money, just money coming out of money markets, people thinking that they were buying the dip.
money markets, people thinking that they were buying the dip.
I haven't seen a market with this many cracks in it since 2007.
Now, I'm not so sure that we're going to get that type of correction because I don't think
that the leverage necessarily is that bad.
I don't think that there's necessarily that much disorderly hot money. But I keep looking
at things and I keep seeing a rough year throughout the year. I have a hard time not seeing the stock
market continue to drop. I think that 5200 range is the first level of real support, but I see an S&P 500 in the middle 4,000 range
being my base case at this point.
The liquidity just isn't there.
And we have over 6 million people delinquent on their mortgages.
We have over 6 million people delinquent on their mortgages.
We have record high delinquencies on cars and getting their own credit cards again.
And most of the money in money markets, frankly, is 10% of money.
You know, a lot of it is 1% of money.
So it's not like 90% of the population is sitting on cash in their money markets. We got a record,
not a record low, but a recent low in job openings, this last report. So everything is weakening.
And the transition to a different type of taxation and debt regime, I think it's going to be tough.
And I don't think it's going to be fast. Now, do we see quantitative easing come in and save the
day? I think back in December or November, one of you guys asked me when I thought that we would see QE again, and I said 2026.
And there was some surprise that it would be that soon.
I actually think we might see it at the end of this year if Powell is really trying to
keep his job, because I think that Trump is going to want the next three years to look
Trump is going to want the next three years to look really good.
really good.
That means we have to monetize a lot of debt, over $6 trillion this year,
and something like $26 or $27 trillion by 2028 or 2029.
I forget the numbers exactly, but it's a giant number.
Most of the debt has to be refinanced this decade.
So I think the idea that multiples will continue to expand
this year and maybe even next year,
like they did in 23 and 24,
I think that's wishful thinking.
And I think the idea that earnings are going to go up as we transition into a more tariff-led regime, I think is wishful thinking.
I do think that at some point, and I don't know if it's during this administration or the next,
or the next. At some point, I think that just like when we produce too much oil, the cure for
cheap oil is to produce less and then you get more expensive oil. Anywhere where there's a shortage,
you produce less. And anytime there's a glut, anytime there's a shortage, you produce more.
Anytime there's a glut, you produce less. I think the same thing's going to happen with tariffs.
I think the tariffs probably are higher at the start of this.
And hopefully by the end, everybody's like, we don't want this pain.
Let's go back to more free trade.
And I hope that that's what happens.
I don't think it'll be fast.
I think there's going to be hard feelings.
So I just think that this is going to be a lot tougher.
You know, I came into the year neutral to bearish.
I've switched to bearish,
and I'm having a hard time getting back to neutral.
I am at 60% to 65% cash in client accounts.
I am at 60% to 65% cash in client accounts.
In the accounts that are sophisticated enough to have a short position, I do own puts on the S&P 500.
I'm down to about a dozen of my very best stock ideas, and I hold those because those are more catalyst-driven than correlation to the market-driven.
I really don't own any ETFs at this point except for intermediate term bond fund.
Folks, I don't get scared real easy.
I've only been scared a half a dozen times in my career.
This is the sixth time.
is the sixth time.
Eric, when you mentioned some of these cracks around, what are some of the cracks that you're
most concerned about?
So, you know, just all the basic debt that we know about.
But then you take a look at private credit.
And private credit has been taking on riskier loans and then packaging products for the less sophisticated market.
It used to be that private equity was regulated to accredited investors, but they've repackaged it and put it into skins that allow retail to get involved.
And then you have, you know, your basic,
your private markets that are out there too on the internet.
So the private credit out there is way more dangerous than people talk about.
And I think somebody here talked about it a while back
with those buy now, pay later programs
for, you know, online shopping and whatnot.
There's just an awful lot of debt that can go bad out there, especially if unemployment ticks up.
So if we get unemployment rising into the middle and later part of this year,
there's going to be a lot of people hurting.
And the last thing they stop paying
actually is their car payments. They'll give the keys back on a house or go live with mom and dad
before they give back their car. And we're starting to see the car payments already being missed.
being missed. So the way that the structure of those credit markets work is that somebody has
to take that loss. And, you know, the guys who package the products of, you know, they pay
themselves first. There's just not going to be money to see all these things be whole at the end.
And I don't know if the haircut is 5% or 25%.
You know, that's an unknown.
But when the credit markets get damaged, it flows through.
And right now, at the very top end,
the U.S. Treasury market has all this demand from the
government to refinance debt, but there's not a supply of money to do it. So the only answer
is going to be QE. It's just a matter of how much and when. But between now and then, before they
do that, they want it to be very clear to everybody that they
have to.
So there will be a crisis before they bail out the bond market, because up until the
moment of crisis, you can always say, but there's no crisis, so why should we do it?
I cannot see a situation here where money magically comes out of the foreign markets
and supports our debt.
I mean, this is not a new argument, right?
Peter Schiff and all the gold bugs and everybody out there has been saying there's a reckoning
coming on U.S. debt.
And I always thought it would be later.
I thought it would be towards the end of the decade when we were at peak baby boomer retirement.
But we have a president who, rightly or wrongly, is pissing everybody off.
And if the checkbooks around the world aren't going to write checks for U.S. debt, then you have a problem.
And granted, I am of the belief that you can do quantitative easing
and stretch that debt out over 30 years and deal with it
as the demographics smooth out over a very long period of time.
But it's not pain-free, And it might come with both a slowdown in the economy
and inflation. So we might get stagflation. I don't think it's 1970s style, which was oil-driven.
I think it's true crowding out. Crowding out is something that has always been theoretical for us.
We've never really had to deal with it, right?
Like emerging markets.
But we might actually see crowding out,
and then the banks aren't lending.
So this is really a cycle that, you know, I'm convinced that they'll just do the quantitative easing.
It's either that or have a revolution.
But I just don't see them doing the QE until there's really a kick in your face, punch
in your gut, you know, crisis, right? They're not going to do QE until there's a crisis. So therefore,
if QE is the only solution, but they can't do it politically until there's a crisis,
you know, then that's what they'll wait for. And at this point, the scapegoats are all set up. I
mean, you know, right now the scapegoat is Biden and then the scapegoat will be,
you know, the Federal Reserve. And just everybody is going to get blamed except for the tariffs.
And the tariffs really are the match. You know, not that the problems weren't there.
And not that trade doesn't have to be fixed. I'm just saying that they've decided to do it now,
and maybe that's better.
I don't know.
But I do know that when capital flows change,
there's a consequence.
Sometimes the consequence is positive.
Sometimes it's negative.
It looks negative this time.
Go ahead, Godfather, jump in.
Yeah, look, I also lean bearish sometimes, but I always look at the other side as well.
And what is the market actually telling us?
And right now, the market seems to be telling us it's looking for an excuse to go higher.
We've seen a massive amount of repositioning from what was clearly way overweight.
Some of these high growth names with big multiples earlier in the year.
But, you know, we're now down to an equal weight on the S&P of 16 times.
We know we have historically, you know, when we've had these drawdowns, you know, look back at the end of 18 and the spring of 23, you know, big cap tech struggled both of those times. And then, you know,
that sort of defensive outperformance kicked in again. And I saw this quote today, you guys
probably did, or maybe even talked about it by Sam Altman. So, you know, obviously, we saw the
largest private tech deal ever with the investment of 30 billion into open AI. And, you know, obviously we saw the largest private tech deal ever with the investment of 30 billion to open AI.
And, you know, he was out there basically saying, hey, we're trying to deal with capacity here.
And, you know, anyone who can get his GPU in, you know, 100,000 chunks, you know, let us know, call us. So, you know, like, I think that everyone's focused on the pillar of the
economy being the consumer and the pillar of the economy being government, you know, both weakening
in terms of government spend. And then, you know, this potentially failed leadership of
these companies, which have the biggest bloated weights in the indices, you know, all of them collapsing on each other and, you know, causing the index to go down through these sort of 5000 levels.
But I think there's a case to be made that we see some stabilization here that, again, people look through this air pocket of Q1 numbers and the markets are forward looking mechanism.
And right now, everybody's focused on these things that seem to be stagflationary in the near term, being tariffs.
But I think we need to be aware of recency bias and currency bias.
And what we're focusing on now is not what we're going to focus on six months from now.
And the market may well be focused on deregulation, may well be focused on best in saying,
the market may well be focused on deregulation, may well be focused on best in saying, hey,
we're going to really loosen bank controls or other things that are, you know, stimulative to
the economy. So I think you need to remain open to that. And, you know, over time, stocks do go up
in the long run. So I guess the net sum of this whole conversation is to the extent that you've
got a short term bucket, be tactical there. But the extent that you've got a short-term bucket, be tactical there, but the extent that you've got a long-term bucket,
you know, I think at minimum you should be DCA-ing into some of the names that
you like, but, you know, certainly, you know,
you shouldn't be selling you long-term compelling holds.
So I just wanted to offer the, you know,
to offer the other side to the bear equation here.
the other side to the bear equation here.
Can I jump back in?
Yeah, absolutely.
So I don't disagree that there can be a rally in the short run.
When they get the reconciliation bill done, and here's the mechanics of that, the Treasury
steps away from extraordinary measures, correct?
So they'll get the debt ceiling raised when the reconciliation bill is done, maybe before.
And that allows the Treasury to take the money that they've kind of been holding to make
sure that we can pay the bills, and they can put it back into the economy. That type of money flowing into the economy usually is stimulative
for a couple months, maybe three or four, but generally a couple months. So you can see
a little rebound here if earnings aren't revised down too terribly much. But when you take a look
at fact set, it is clear that 50, 60, 70% of the companies could in fact be guiding down.
That is problematic.
You know, the forward PE, you know, is higher than 16.
So if the E is going to come down, right, that expands your PE right there.
And therefore, prices probably come down.
So I have a hard time on the S&P 500, liking it in general, especially as a stock picker.
I don't like the small caps as a group.
I mean, I think that that's the best place to find your big winners longer term.
But I also think that as a group, since we've gone so heavy to indexing with half-ish of the money, that the Russell 2000 is kind of a shit index at this point.
But 60% of the companies are unprofitable and probably never will be profitable.
So you have to be a stock picker there. The mid-caps are the one place where, you know, so the very top end of
the S&P, excuse me, the Russell 2000, those 50 or 100 companies that might end up on the
S&P 500 at some point. That's a sweet spot, right? Because you have the magnet of the S&P 500
pulling on them and you have growth and you have, you you have them being past the small cap dangers.
I just don't see a lot in the stock market compelling from a valuation and growth standpoint.
I screen all 6,000 stocks and I break it up into segments and I take a look at the oscillators
and the moving averages and everything.
We're all using AIs to do this now.
If you believe that earnings are flat and revenues are flat,
then there's almost no argument for a higher stock market in the face of liquidity that is no longer increasing.
And until we get quantitative easing
or people around the world love us again,
it's just going to be a lot of pressure
until those things change, at least one of them changes.
Now, I do believe that lower income taxes and deregulation of finance in general, not just banking, but finance in general, and then QE, they're all stimulative.
But is it stimulative in a way that actually is beneficial for the economy long term?
Or is it just a two or three-year sugar high?
In the past, it's been a two or three-year sugar high.
So we'll see.
You know, we became super-duper rich
in a low-tariff regime.
And this is a fact.
We've typically had lower tariffs
than all of our trading partners, and it's worked.
capping the economy in a way that the handful of increased jobs doesn't offset the price increases.
And in the short run, we have a slowdown too.
So it is hard to make the math work is what I'm trying to say.
And while I understand the ideas, right, I understand the desires, I am convinced that they're rolling the dice.
Nobody knows if this is going to work.
And in the past, it has not. do, the necessary outcome has to be the tariffs across the board ultimately come down. And my
argument is that that won't happen fast. So while we can get a rally, especially after reconciliation,
reconciliation, I would look at that as a rip to sell unless these other factors are being repaired,
such as people catching up on their mortgage and their car payment and their credit cards
and the private credit not being under stress and trying to offload those
products onto unsuspecting investors like CLOs back in the day.
products onto unsuspecting investors like CLOs back in the day.
I just, I am very skeptical of what is going on.
And again, I'm a bull.
I'm a long-term bull.
Long-term bull.
Yeah, the other math here, though, is that, you know, the MAG-7 is still 30% of the S&P,
and the earnings estimates for the MAG-7 are still double digits for this year. They've come
down from 36% in 24 down to 16% in 25. And then for the other 493, it's still around 7%.
Does that come down as the consumer slows with tariff edwinds, et cetera, as the soft data seems to be talking about in terms of consumer sentiment and expectations for job losses and these things potentially? or 250, these kind of numbers, not something that's materially less than that. So you're
going to have to take an equal weighted S&P of 16 times and say that's too expensive.
And that multiple is going to come down materially to get to numbers that are well south of 10%
below here or 5,000 on the S&P. So this is the kind of math that I'm looking at as well.
You don't think that earnings can drop 20 or 30%? So this is the kind of, you know, math that I'm looking at as well and seeing, you know,
relatively important.
You don't think that earnings can drop 20 or 30 percent?
No, not the S&P earnings with that kind of weighting in the mag seven.
I mean, conversely, Apple's earnings growth, revenue growth, sales growth has been stagnant for three years while the multiple expanded basically 3x.
Right.
I'm not saying that multiples can't go down.
We've already seen that. Yeah, but you also said that they make up like a 30% to 40% of the index.
30%. like a 30 to 40 percent of the index so like 30 i don't i don't understand how uh some of these
companies that have basically gone sideways and have gotten this multiple expansion uh on the
promise of some sort of innovation or revenue growth or like something will catch up down the
line without actually something catching up down the line for the for the ones that haven't produced
and then conversely the ones that have
have gotten like a benefit of the doubt where they've gotten severe uh you know a forward pull
and that stuff's probably going to come back to reality simultaneously i don't understand how
you know with those two things happening at the same time that the indexes that you know that
the index can't come down once these things normalize?
Well, the index has come down.
It's come down to 100%.
The MAG-7 did produce 36% earnings growth last year and 35% the year prior to that.
So 16% seems like a lot less, but, you know, this is still relatively robust,
and I think my personal view is that this narrative
that the AI theme is over
and that we're not going to get defensive leadership
from the MAG-7 is BS.
I think you're going to see the market return to these names
in the latter half of the year and return to growth,
and I don't see another theme that's taking over
in terms of leadership in this market from AI and tech
and the efficiencies that are gained from that.
So, you know, you have to have that view to, you know,
have confidence that the indices are going to be supported
by what are, you know, the biggest bloated weight names
that still make up 30%.
Well, in the meantime, the market did just close there. Great combo back and forth there. I love
the debate aspect of that. The market did close. We officially closed green on the day. All MAG7 names did close green.
The S&P closed up 0.3%, QQQ 0.8%. IWM barely snuck it in, closed three pennies in the green,
Dow seven pennies in the red. So basically break even on those two. Green day, I guess,
officially. And I'm looking that I made this comment earlier at
the beginning of space. If you were going to close the day at a more confusing spot, I don't know if
you could have planned it this way, but QQQ and SPY both right at pretty key levels here as we go
into tomorrow. Tomorrow, the tariff announcement is supposed to be at 4 p.m eastern that is right
when the market closes from the rose garden event and uh evan i saw there was a headline in the last
few minutes around apple and visa and if you're here you can speak to that of course as the
resident apple bull if you're not i'll call that out for us i mean i'm here one there he is i don't know
much to add and looks like visa might be offering to take over the partner the apple car partnership
from uh mastercard looks like they're offering apple 100 million dollars you know dying company
taking in his 100 million dollars see what it does with it
interesting do you see any other uh news stories or anything that stuck out to you throughout the
day um yeah yeah yeah um so obviously a lot of the tariff stuff going around don't know
what to take i guess tomorrow we'll find out um
just mostly tariff stuff i don't know uh tesla a little bit like q1 data points not coming in
super strong uh delivery
numbers come out tomorrow morning for that one so i'm watching there yeah i saw the headline the
sam altman tweets about uh you know if anyone has a gpu capacity for 100 000 chunks or whatever they
needed asap so you know my man went to nvidia right there but i'm in the airport i'm barely hanging
on and i'll be back tomorrow so i don't know not much to add well the uh quality of the show will
be better tomorrow when you are back but uh we're holding it down in the meantime i know stock talk
and gov and evan all three traveling i appreciate the whole crew that has been up here i would say
take a moment and make sure you follow all of the crew that is up here each
and every day.
We appreciate everyone that joined.
I know we had Blake Miller join us today.
Mike Larson from The Money Show joined us.
You see Ariel Wolf, Kirk Spano, The Godfather, Logical, Stock Sniper.
Make sure you follow all of these great people.
And we have a late arrival here that I would love to get some thoughts out of.
Sam Solid, how are you today, sir?
What are your thoughts around the market?
Oh, wow.
Quite the introduction.
Appreciate it, man.
I'm doing good.
I mean, just did the buying last week.
This morning, I was just a little bit patient in the pullback to possibly add some
leverage back to the market as I could start to see the trend starting to recover. But at the
same time, keeping a very small size still and not getting into anything too crazy. Most of the
buys were done in the last couple of weeks. But what I did find interesting today was the negative news that came out along the entire day with tariffs, but also with the Atlanta Fed downgrading its GDP forecast. here but you know seeing that happen and then ending green somehow kind of just makes me think
like okay well does that mean the bad news is already prized into the market I mean just some
interesting observations that you keep an eye and I'm sure a lot of you guys do as well especially
the traders and I know logical is like a big promoter that like you know once you get that
flush and you and you see the market rally in spite of bad news continuing to come into the real,
that's when you start to think like, hey, maybe the seller's getting exhaustive. Maybe
we're at a low-term pivot, whatever it is. So it's just pretty interesting. And there's always that
historical data trend. And obviously this isn't just Tom Lee that says it, because he does refer
to a lot of data points. But when you have a binary event, not even a binary event, but when
you have a negative event that's already on the calendar that the market's very well of,
and it generally tends to bottom ahead of that event. We've seen that many times. I mean,
COVID is a very extreme example. like the market bottoms, probably as
conditions were getting worse and worse and worse. And then if you close your eyes in March,
and thought like, okay, the market's probably gonna be lower a few months from now and the
impacts of COVID did get extremely worse, but the market bottom way ahead of that schedule.
And that happened with many times over and over and over. So I wouldn't be surprised if we see that, you know,
I'm not necessarily a pro chartist or probably a seasonally experienced
trader like a lot of you guys, but I'm sure, you know,
the caution is still in the wind right now.
I'm pretty cautious.
Probably looking to continue building that cash position
again. Even though I do do some dollar cost averaging, I did do a good amount of buys.
So we'll see what happens on the next iteration of my deposits. But at the same time, it's
seeing just how much the market's been down so much lately. People got so used to the market
going up every single day. And then people kind of got used to the market going down every day.
And, you know, we'll see what happens.
But that pendulum always swings from one side to the other and much further than people
expect.
And to see the fifth fastest correction in history or one of the fifth, because there
were other fast corrections during that time as well,
kind of makes me think, like, do you think we might get some considerable bounce here?
Or do you think it's going to continue being that bulls climb the wall of worry situation where the rally becomes hated? And at that point, that's when the meltdown might just commence,
you know, and that's, you've seen that time and time again, but nevertheless, I wouldn't say that valuations
are necessarily like very cheap or even cheap per se.
They're certainly a lot better than they were a few months ago, which warrants adds to high
conviction positions.
But at the same time, you know, when we've seen corrections in the past, we saw multiples
compress quite a good amount.
I would say we went to very overvalued territory to not as overvalued territory.
So it kind of makes me a little bit cautious still because of that.
Are we ever going to get that reversion to the mean or not?
But I wouldn't really attribute that to how I'm positioning my entire portfolio, but certainly like short-term trades.
how I'm positioning my entire portfolio, but certainly like short-term trades.
Appreciate you sneaking in here and leaving us with some thoughts there, Mr. Sam Solid.
Jordan, we haven't heard from you, I don't think, in this space. We heard at the very beginning when
we were getting going on the earnings part of it, but we'd love to see if you had any thoughts to
share with the crew today.
Yeah, I mean, everybody's kind of freaking out this year on a higher time frame perspective, which I love to see because it brings a volatile market. It brings uncertainty,
which is beautiful for the short-term trades, as I'm sure you know,
just trading futures throughout the day. We love to see that volatility. It brings just cleaner, bigger opportunities. So overall for the short-term trades, loving the market so far
this entire year, it's been a whole lot of fun, obviously just craziness with all the uncertainty
that goes around. But even from a long-term perspective, it obviously sucks if you're
sitting back and you're like only a long-term investor and you're like, okay, well, all my
investments are coming in. And especially if you just bought like late last year, right? It's not
an ideal timeline the way things are going right now. But at the end of the day, I just sit back
and I put spy on a yearly chart. And I'm like, okay, what have we done since, since these charts
were available to us? And everything always ends up recovering, right? And what I've noticed about
every real dip that we've had and every real cycle to the downside that we've had on SPY,
we get those consecutive months to the downside. And we just had our first one on SPY
this last month. So I would love to see some more downside in the market before I really deploy
my cash that I have sitting on the sidelines from a long-term perspective,
because I did sell a lot of individual names that I was able to make some great money on
throughout the last two years. I'm taking some risk off with those and really just focused on
ETFs. Now I'm holding all my positions in SPY and QQQ, and I'm looking to add to those for the long
term. But I just don't think it's time yet. And you know, if we want to rip back
to all time highs from here, I'm all for it. No worries. My investments that I have will
go back to where they were in SPY and QQQ. And I'm happy about it, right? But for me to really
want to deploy the cash that I have, I want to see some, you know, just a real cycle down.
And I don't think we've truly seen that yet. So I definitely think the market can come in more.
And I think everybody should truly be happy about that yet. So I definitely think the market can come in more.
And I think everybody should truly be happy about it.
It's opportunity for us to get lower prices.
Somebody said it way earlier.
I forgot exactly who.
I think it was our man Daily Stock Picks.
I think he's out now.
But he was saying this is the only market where things go on sale and everybody runs away, right?
And I just think that's hilarious.
And again, obviously short term, yeah, things are coming in.
I've actually made most of my money on the short-term playing shorts, right?
I'm all for a down market.
I absolutely love it.
But at the end of the day, it's bringing an opportunity for us on the higher timeframes.
And when you look at the ETFs on a yearly, really bump up that timeframe
and just see what we've done during every correction. It's just clear that you want to be buying dips and you want to be taking advantage of all the uncertainty in the market. So I'm keeping it extremely simple. Really stepping away from a lot of individual names, staying with the ETFs. Since I'm so focused on the short term, I'm not like at heart a long-term investor,
even though, you know, you kind of have to be a long-term investor if you're in this
market at all. So I want to be taking advantage of stuff there, but I'm just trying to keep it
more simple and lay off of the individual names and just keep it with the ETFs, keep that simple
and take advantage of the volatility on the short term. So that's kind of my thoughts on things
right now and everything. I'm not worried about a single thing that happens with tariffs or
whatever. Everybody's so concerned about it. I could care less. We're going to go up. We're
going to go down. Doesn't matter to me. The charts will tell me what I should be doing on the short
timeframe. And on the longer timeframe, it's either I get what I want for lower prices or I
don't. And either way, I'm happy. So it's just funny.
You look at your timeline, you see all this uncertainty, you see everybody freaking out.
And, you know, but there's there's a very small amount of people that are sitting back like I am happy no matter what happens, because you set yourself up in a position where you can't be right.
So love in the market. I think it's a blessing. And I do think there's more downside to come.
But we'll see. Maybe we get some short term relief in the market. I think it's a blessing and I do think there's more downside to come, but we'll see. Maybe we get some short-term relief in the meantime.
Yeah, great thoughts, Jordan.
And definitely appreciate you jumping up here, co-hosting this with the rest of the crew on the move.
Sam, saw your hand go up. I want to go to you and then we'll bring Kevin Green into the conversation.
Yeah, just wanted to address something.
Jordan, you're just all around like a happy guy. That's a very good, it's a very good persona to have. I mean, honestly,
with the market going down, I got to admit, even as a long term investor, there are some times I'm
just like, God damn it, you know, that sort of thing. But overall, like not even just with the
market, just keeping like an overall optimistic point of view.
In the long term, you know, at the end of the day, I think a lot of people can confidently say that in 20 years, the market's going to be higher than it is today.
And if you don't, then, well, short America, I guess.
I mean, that would be a very drastic scenario in 20 years to see the market still down.
in 20 years to see the market still down. At the end of the day, something drastic can happen. But
At the end of the day, something drastic can happen.
when I look at the charts and what's happened forever, it's like we haven't seen like the market
really go absolutely crazy to the downside. So it's not saying in the future that it might never
happen. But until I see that, I'm going to keep going with what the market's done since before I
was born, right? Absolutely. I's just it's just when you think about
it because um that there has been a sentiment lately like you know i wouldn't say amazon is
necessarily cheap i mean i feel like i hear both sides of the story especially when it comes to
google but um there are a lot of people that are really like chasing google and thinking that the
value is going to keep expanding and everything and then now it's sitting over here trading under 20 times PE.
And it's just, everyone should be kind of happy that Google was this low.
Like that gives you the opportunity to buy more Google,
especially for the longterm.
But also I wanted to address as well that what I've noticed was that even
though we have like a lot of inflation induced news coming out lately,
the 10 year has actually been falling.
And if you look at the CME Fed funds futures, May, it's only a couple percentage points, but May is starting to price in just a little bit more of a rate cut.
Personally, I would not be surprised to see a rate cut in May or, if anything, more than two rate cuts for the entire year. And certainly even with more bad
news coming in, wouldn't you be asking yourselves, why hasn't the bond market continued that trend
in the downward trend and the yields continue to rise? We're getting all this tariff news.
We're getting all the inflation news. We're getting that inflation is stickier than expected
and so on. And then yet the bond market is somewhat disagreeing
in the last couple of days.
So it was just kind of an interesting dynamic
to see in the market.
I'm sure Kevin probably has some things to say
about that one too.
What's up, KG?
What's going on, guys?
What up, Jordy? The long time I talk, man. What's going on, guys? What up, Jordy?
Long time no talk, man.
What's going on, man?
Hopefully, all is well.
Yeah, look, so I think from the Treasury side, I think we're looking at this a little bit.
And Sam, I'm right there.
I'm with you to a point, right?
But I think people ought to understand there's a lot that's happening right now in the treasury market just in general. And it's not just one
factor. I think right now what you're seeing in treasuries right now is a flight to safety or a
flight to quality type of mentality that's taking place. Even if you kind of look at the last two
days, today and even yesterday's popped to the upside, right? Yields haven't really budged.
They actually continue to move lower on a day-by-day basis.
And that's just signifying the fact that they have a little bit of uncertainty there.
Now, in history, bond markets are usually more than equity markets.
But so we'll keep an eye out on that.
One thing that people have not talked about today,
I don't know if you guys brought it up,
but something to keep on the radar too.
We did actually invert again on the yield curve,
the three month, 10 year,
believe twos and tens may have.
I'll have to look
because I don't know what the intraday move was
for the two year,
but we had inverted again.
And so that means that our short-term rates
are actually pricing in or are higher than our our longer term rates so uh that is something just to
kind of be mindful of and it just depends on where you're at in the cycle and i won't have to go
through this whole thing so i don't want to hog this thing right but usually when you're late
cycle getting into early cycle uh meaning you're getting out of this, you're getting more
towards the peak of the Fed policy. You start cutting and normalizing markets. Usually what
you would like to see is actually yields moving higher, equities moving higher in the same fashion.
And then when you have risk on days or risk off days, equities move lower, yields move lower, right?
Take capital from the treasury, something that's a little bit more safer.
You put it into equities, putting it something more risky, that's risk on, vice versa.
So the fact that we actually did invert today, it could be a small one.
It could be something that's a blip on the radar.
We had a blip of an inversion in early March as well.
So I also want to be mindful of that. But a month ago,
two months ago, we were sitting, blowing out at about 4% on a normalization, give or take, right?
40 basis points, I'm sorry. So we were actually looking pretty decent. We're going the opposite
way. There's two things that can be happening here. One, tariff risk could be factored in. I think the treasury market's also probably maybe going to
be already pricing in an economic slowdown. I think that's exactly what they are doing.
And then potentially jobs being lost and labor market cracking, forcing the Fed to actually
take action. And then you'll hear this
term like bond vigilantes, right? The Fed will tell you, look, we're only doing two. You have
Bostick saying, hey, we're only doing one. And the market's like, hold my beer. You're going to
be pricing in two and a half to maybe three cuts this year, right? That's not a really good sign.
So that's something that I am keeping on the radar. We'll say though, the price action that we had yesterday
for the quarterly, I discounted a little bit, even though I do light that hammer candle. Today,
the price action, a little bit more interesting, just the intraday swing and the way that we were
able to recover in the market breadth. I do like that. Liquidity is actually coming down. If you're
looking at the E-mini S&P 500 futures book
depth, and I'll post that here in a sec if you guys want to look at my page or what have
you.
So I think that instead of trying to call top or try to call a bottom or any of that,
I think what we have to just do and make it very simple is just day by day, just trade
the market day by day, right?
If you're nervous and concerned, low beta stocks, if you have to have equity exposure, if you don't
want to do that, you can get into treasuries. If you don't want to do that because you, whatever,
you can sit into cash. Because I always like to bring this perspective up. You know, if you were
actually holding cash, I'm not saying do this, but just perspective, right? If you were actually holding cash, I'm not saying do this, but just perspective. If you were actually holding cash since the start of the year, you'd be winning.
You're never forced to make a trade.
If you are finding yourself churning your account more and being a little bit more on edge,
then it's probably a sign that you've got to either pair back sizing or just not trade at all.
I think that's actually something that you probably need to
keep on the radar in the next 24, 48 hours. Look, if we have good news tomorrow, I don't even know
if it's good news. It sounds like the reports from the Washington Post are saying that we're
going to have a weighted average of around 20%. That's pretty aggressive. And that's like max
high end, I think, that the market was pricing in. But let's say if that is the case and we say,
okay, one and done, we're good. We're going to move forward. We're not going to do any other actions, right? We might have some small areas. Auto parts we'll look at, which is going to be a key one. It should not do that. But auto parts, we might take a look at maybe energy in some respects here. But for the most part, let's say 90% of things that we're going to tariff, this is it. Boom.
year. But for the most part, let's say 90% of things that we're going to tariff, this is it,
boom. Vol probably will crush a little bit. Market will say, hey, we have clarity, even though it's
not great policy as far as an economic standpoint, it could cause a little bit of slowing. The market
cares about clarity more than anything, right? Even bad news, we can deal with bad news. We
have bad news, we sell off, we reprice, we move forward. That's just what's happened in history,
which is what Jordan is saying, right? It's a different way of saying it, but even the bad
things that we've ever had happen here in the United States, we sell off, we price it, re-rate,
move forward, and look for the next opportunity. So I would just be a little bit cautious. I'm not
completely sold on this price action the last two days, personally. I'm
not saying I'm like uber bearish, but until we actually start seeing some of these other
complimentary asset markets correlate, traditionally correlate like they should,
instead of this disjointed behavior that we have seen over the last two days,
I'm going to be very skeptical of it.
So that's kind of where I'm at with this whole thing here. So decent day, decent little price action. Somebody just did a hit and somebody was like, hey, what would be like the ideal thing for
vol going into the weekend? 16 and a half, 16 and a half, 17 vol for me, that's a trader's dream,
right? Enough money, enough vol to get premium if you're
selling premium, enough to be able to get intraday swings if you're going long calls,
going long puts. You don't really want to go anything lower than that because that's when
you have these compressed and dull markets. So that's kind of why I take it and where we're at
here. But I can tell you the yield space is telling you a completely different story than what you're seeing from the equity market.
And I tend to trust and also dollar, too.
But I tend to trust the yield correlation first.
And if yields back off very aggressively, we could have a rip rally.
And you got to be prepared for that.
But cautiously optimistic, I'll say that.
But I think that we still got more to the downside
over the coming months and i don't think it's going to be like every day we're down two percent
three percent or anything of that nature i think it's going to be a very slow grind of the downside
here you know two steps what is it one step forward two steps back type of price action
and that's just i'm sorry let me clarify too because jordan brought this that's just, I'm sorry, let me clarify too, because Jordan brought this.
That's just for trading. For investing, DCA, I mean, you have 8%, what, 6% off highs or whatever,
8% depends on the day. Nibble. You don't go all in, you nibble. And if we drop another 5%,
nibble again. You drop another, nibble again. That's personally what I'm doing, Kevin. I'm
taking little nibbles here and there, but I'm waiting for levels I really want to throw some
bigger limit orders in, and then we'll live with those decisions, right?
Yeah. Look, it's 5,500 a bus, right? That's what it is on the S&P 500. Notice that today we got
55, 65, the buyer stepped in. The other day, we got to about 5,500. What last week, buyers stepped in. There's a reason why. Because we people hate, it's not all the time, right?
But when people hate a company that is already kind of round tripped, you got to look at it.
Because those will be the companies that two months from now, everybody's gonna be like, oh, man, that's a 10 banger.
But the problem that you have with Google is that it's sitting at a neckline, like a two year neckline.
So it's like, it's got to prove itself a little bit right uh but
if we do have another three percent four percent pullback and we break that 150 on google then
you're looking at a pretty decent pull the pullback to the downside a lot of these stocks are
are doing the same thing nvidia it's not a surprise nvidia i've been talking about this for the last
month or so what was the value range 105 to 95. to 95. There's a reason why people are buying in at that
level because it's kind of that make or break. So you can make a shot and take a shot right now.
Definitely, you could do that or you could wait, right? And you might give up a little bit of
alpha to the upside or you may be able to preserve capital. Who knows? Or you can look at options to
try to get exposure. And so I think you just have to be very, very tactical
with this one, but yield markets right now
are not signaling the same thing that equities are.
And once again, if you go back in time,
yield markets are generally correct.
Gold too. correct gold too oh can i bring that can i talk about that real quick i think it's very interesting fascinating i'm sorry i want to hear what you have to say about gold all right
all right so this is very fascinating so um you guys can check out the articles that I write. I wrote one on gold
a couple of weeks ago, whatever, right? So what happened with gold, right? In January,
what you saw was actually in the futures contracts, if you're short futures, you have the right or the
option to take action. It's opposite of equity options, right? Where buyer has the right to do
whatever. In futures, the seller
actually has the right. And when you're talking about the physicals, you have the right to take
action at something called the first notice day. So if I'm a seller and I say, hey, I want to,
we call them delivery of intent notices. You say, hey, just like you exercise an option, right? Hey,
I want to deliver this gold, a hundred ounces of gold. Got one contract I want to deliver. Okay. In January, we saw these delivery notices skyrocket through the roof
because there was actually physical transfer of gold from London, from Europe to here in the
United States, right? And that physical movement of gold is actually impacting our GDP. I don't
know if you guys have talked about GDP now, that forecast, but the actual headline number,
if you don't X out these gold transfers is actually really bad. I mean, if any other time
that you would do this, our market probably would have been down easily over 15, 20% if you're
just talking about equities. GDP now forecast is looking for a decline of negative 3.7% for Q1.
If you X out the gold transfers, the import exports, you net those out, we're still looking
at down negative 1.4% for first quarter GDP. So two things to kind of note there before
I go back on the gold thing. One, the gold transfers to have a major impact, what we've
seen has a major impact on GDP. And this is like once in a generational thing. I mean,
like last time we saw something this aggressive was COVID-19, right? Like literally the week
before, two weeks before the major drop of COVID-19 I'm not saying
that this is going to be the same thing this time around but something just be mindful of
and then two what happens if those deliveries notices or there's intent to deliver notices
ramp back up again so on Friday the April contract was eligible for first notice day.
OK, so what happened Monday?
What was reported?
The April contract had thirty four thousand eight hundred and sixty five contracts delivered.
You're talking about one about 108 tons of gold. You're talking about $3.8 billion, I believe.
I'm sorry, misquoted. $10.8 billion. And I'm rounding down there. Worth of money. Just in notational value of gold just for Monday. And if that continues, gold is going to still continue
to have a bid because that's literally a physical short squeeze that we are seeing in this market.
And so, yeah, you might see a pullback. And I was wrong about it. I did not think that we were
going to see this. I wrote an article and said, hey, I would be thoroughly shocked. And I am
thoroughly shocked. And if this is going to continue, gold is going to still have
the fundamental stability to be able to hold up prices for now. And until those delivery notices
drop off, until the physical transfers slow down, gold is going to continue to maintain a bid,
at least, and or continue to move higher. And I am completely 180. And it's not because of price is this. This
is really what I wanted to see. And that's going to be also concerning to for one more reason. And
I'm going to kick it back me just land this plane here because it's really, really important.
Let's just say and I'll be very generous. Let's just say that we printed on a negative 1.5%
print on GDP. Let's say that Atlanta Fed is completely off its rocker
when it comes to the gold transfers and we negative 1.5%. Cool. But if we still see the
same aggressive gold action in Q2, and we print a negative GDP print in Q2, what technically happens? And that recession, right? People say, oh,
two negative two quarters of GDP is recession, blah, blah. You're going to have positive revisions,
negative revisions. But the problem that I have is that that's actually a little bit more scarier
because a lot of people under the hood don't understand what's going on. You guys do because
you guys are very knowledgeable and you guys have just heard me talk about what's
happening in the gold market and how it's impacting GDP but the headline that you would see in the
news is not going to probably tell you that full story right and if it doesn't tell you that full
story that's where it gets a little bit like oh man second half of the year could actually be very
interesting so uh that's the goal thing. Gold skill can maintain a bid if those
physical deliveries can maintain themselves. And that's a lot of contracts. 34,000 is a lot of
contracts. If you continue to see that type of action, I would be a little bit concerned. Now,
one thing to kind of note, there's only 18,000 contracts that are left in that open interest.
So you need to have, so there's only 18,000 contracts right now that can be tendered up for delivery, unless you have buyers that step into
that contract and no retail trader is going to be, no good brokerage is going to let a retail trader
trade into a contract that has a first notice day and get in on the long side. That would be
completely suicide. and you would have
issues with delivery and all that stuff right so this one's actually very interesting to see that
size so let's see how this churn actually takes place but the gold move could sustain itself for
a bit so i'll kick it back i appreciate you guys letting me nerd out on that nerd nerd I personally enjoy
getting those nuggets of wisdom
appreciate you Kevin
and of course if anybody has any comments around that
please feel free to jump in
if not I do want to ask Kevin
have you seen any major positioning
or any moves
that's kind of I mean it seems like the whole market's in the sit and wait until the next I do want to ask Kevin, have you seen any major positioning or any moves?
That's kind of, I mean,
it seems like the whole market's in the sit and wait until the next three days kind of pass.
I would say nothing that like, so that's always a really good question,
especially after we have like a quarterly, like we had the other day, right?
Yesterday, because you have the collar thing.
And there's also just repositioning when it comes to pension funds.
Because if you looked at the last 10 minutes of the trading day yesterday,
I think somebody is like, what?
I don't even want to throw a number out there, but it's a boatload of money.
I think it was the largest amount of assets rotated and rebalanced.
Kirk might have even heard of this.
But I think it was the largest buy order
or rebalance for pension funds that we've seen in a very long time. I think even history,
I think Goldman Sachs said that. So you're going to have a lot of institutions kind of repositioning
their options or their collars or however they're going to manage their position, right? It could
just be downside put protection. It could be anything.
So there's a lot of fluff that you see on the radar.
I continue to see, and AJ and I talked about this the other day,
somebody continues to get into these 4,600 puts.
And this has been happening for like the last three weeks, four weeks,
actually down there a month now.
And it's just continuing to gyrate and rotate.
And they're aggressively buying them, by the way.
And I don't know why.
So that one is kind of the strike that I'm looking at to the downside.
It says, hey, like, you continue to show up on my radar at some point.
And I don't know who that institution is, because a lot of times I'll know who the bigger guys are.
Another person that knows that pretty well, well too is Options Pit, Mark Sebastian. He's
actually really good at that. He's got a lot of insight, knows a lot of guys on the exchanges,
right? But sometimes you're looking at flows and it's like, dude, I don't know who continues to
put these 500 lot orders buying up to 4650 puts every single day. And for whatever reason,
they're going for a buck, but they're doing them every single day. And for whatever reason, you know, they're going for a buck,
but they're doing them every single day. And it just seems like way too far out of the money for the rate of return. So I'm kind of figuring out what that is. But to the upside, I'm not
really seeing anything. 5600s continue to print. We're in that range right now. But I don't think I haven't seen anything that's like, oh, man, like massive whale that's just bought
30 million dollars worth of premiums, out of the money, call
options expiring in a week from now. I haven't seen that enough
for me to say, okay, like this is something to be warranted. And
once again, you're gonna see a kind of a lot of debris, I
guess you're gonna see a lot of a lot of uh i don't know debris i guess you're going to see a
lot of debris uh in the in the options field field right now probably for this week just because of
everything that's going on and once again just the overall repositioning um but the premiums are
cheap so like you know if you look at the at the money options for the SPX that are expiring, not tomorrow, but on Thursday, right, it's pricing in about a 2.2% move to the upside or downside, right?
That's the implied vol.
And I would be very careful for people tomorrow because we were like, tomorrow is the day.
Tomorrow is going to be the day, but the press conference actually takes place after market closes.
conference actually takes place after market closes. So I would not be surprised tomorrow
if we actually get, it could be a wide range day, but if we get a range day leading up to that. So
if you wanted to take a play on this, you would actually play the Thursday option. So you could
actually look at, not a recommendation, but even if you went to the at the money calls and you
bought the at the money calls for SPX and you sold at the monies for tomorrow's session,
that's actually a pretty decent vol trade, right? So let's say that you don't, it doesn't work out.
I think you net net, it's like eight bucks, right? So you get eight bucks when they call
and it doesn't work out. Market drops. you'd be out eight bucks, then you can roll that short call position even to a credit or debit or what have you. Let's say that we have a
massive pop to the upside because everybody is so joyous that we have 20% tariffs coming in on
all of our imported goods for the most part outside of some of these exceptions. But let's
say the market's like, oh, thank God it's only 20% and we get a rip to the upside.
You could also then take that short call
that expires tomorrow and then roll those into a,
and then just basically make a debit spread.
Because once again, we have a high IV,
but skew between these two days is actually,
in my opinion, fairly minimal to take a shot.
So that's something to kind of look at to leverage the option structure or the IV structure,
the premium structure, whatever you want to call it, to put it into your favor. Either way,
you can do the same thing on the put side and it would work out for you, even though the burn on those puts probably tomorrow, if we do get a rip rally for whatever reason is going to be obviously bad.
So if you're bullish, you could calendar that bad boy and get an upside shot in a sense of direction.
So I'll kick it back.
Yeah, I have been wondering if the news doesn doesn't come out what's the term that we typically
use like not as bad as feared and uh you see a big short covering rally i mean does that where
do people get off sides at is it this 5700 oh i don. I mean, I'd love to hear somebody else.
For me personally, it's like if you're looking for an actual clear break and you say, hey, this bottom is going to really sustain, it's 5,800.
You've got to close and sustain above that.
And I would say you have to sustain at least two to three trading sessions.
And the key word is sustain there because we've had pops,
but we haven't sustained anything.
Both the downside move below 5550, 5500 for the most part, right?
We haven't sustained that for the Bears.
And then for the Bulls, you haven't been able to really hold anything above 5700.
But I think 5700 is too close, if that makes sense.
You know, like I feel like it's too close.
Like you really got to do some damage. You really got
to make a higher high on this bounce in order to get you out and really probably squeeze a lot of
these shorts. So that's kind of how I look at it. But I go back and say, all right, cool. Tariffs
are one thing. We don't even see the economic impacts of those yet so what are we what are you going to
rip rally what are we going to back to all-time highs for uh you still have very high inflation
you're going to have a contractionary gdp print what are we happy about this is just near-term
technical trading that i'm talking about right like over time it will go back up but you know
that's my kind of dilemma.
It's like, all right, do we stop focusing on tariffs and then do we go and refocus on
the fact that ISM prices just ripped higher, S&P global PMI prices for manufacturing just
ripped higher. If you're looking at shipping rates right now, they're still staying elevated.
I mean, you're seeing kind of all of this first order effects of a lot of things and i'm
not blaming 100 of these things on tariffs but a lot of it is on these uh tariff fears here so
uh and then what if the consumers get spooked what if they get spooked and stop spending as much
and you have all these companies that just front loaded on inventory right And then they got to sell out their inventory.
What are they going to do?
They have to cut prices.
Are they cut prices?
What are they going to do?
Cut margins.
You cut margins, your adjusted earnings for shares go lower.
Shareable goes lower.
What happens if the consumer stops consuming?
Top line growth slow.
It's like it's a weird cycle we're about to be going into.
And I don't know if the market is really kind of like looking at it like that.
I think we kind of have our blinders on and just looking at tariffs in a vacuum
without thinking about the overall consequences of how this is going to play
out over the next three to six months.
What else does anybody else have?
What does Kurt, anybody else have anything to counter that?
I'm waiting on Kirk to come in and tell us those are his 4,600 strikes down there.
It might be.
Mine are 5,500.
I've had them for a while.
You know, the pension thing is interesting.
It doesn't get talked about a lot.
doesn't get talked about a lot. The corporate pensions out there, their contributions have
dropped 75% the last seven years. So sometime by the end of the decade, corporate pensions flip
from net inflows to net outflows. And that's probably pretty bad for equities and maybe even for treasuries because those plans are 60 to 70 percent bond.
They don't invest 80 percent of their money in equities or 30 to 50 percent in equities.
50 percent is aggressive.
pensions, depending on if you're talking about federal or various states and municipalities,
those are already flat in withdrawal, so in distribution.
So you're really losing over the next three, four, five years, a lot of the money that
was flowing into treasuries and equities.
Again, I think that points towards a liquidity crisis is coming.
Again, timing is probably the only issue with regard to when it happens.
I don't think it's an if.
And then the response.
So again, I'm with Luke Grumman on this one.
I just think they end up, you know, I dropped $15 trillion as quantitative easing the other day.
And, you know, I don't remember who gasped, but I think $15 trillion is a starting point.
I think that's the minimum QE that we see between now and 2030-ish, and it could be double that.
So if we have a crisis and that's, you know, you get your panic and your fear,
and maybe we have two crises, who knows, and then we print our way out of it,
I think we saw a mini version of that with COVID. So you should be able
to look back and see what happened with COVID and say, okay, well, that was a pandemic or
a really serious flu, depending on how you look at it. And if the credit markets crack
and we have outflows from retirement plans because of
the baby boomers retiring, and the response is going to be QE, what ends up happening?
Well we know that asset prices need to go up to fund the government, unless we really
can do it through tariffs, which we probably can't. So you're going to see higher
asset prices in time because most inflation flows through to two things. It's asset prices and the
cost of goods, right? And then services, depending on, you know, are a lot more supply and demand
dependent. So I would say this to all the younger investors. My experience has been
the baby boomers are very emotional investors, but they've been through a number of collapses,
right? A lot of them remember 1987. After a while, that was in the dust. It was in the memory.
But then we had the dot-com crisis when everybody thought that they were a stock market genius.
Then we had the financial crisis when real estate can't go down.
And then we had the QE era.
And I think a lot of the boomers are sophisticated enough, those who had money,
to know that it was probably time to start cashing out
into the boom in 2021 and then this latest one.
So I think a lot of baby boomers are out or on the way out from this market.
And you have one or two, I'm giving you a predatory trade here.
You're going to have a panic bottom.
And you should probably buy the hell out of it.
Because, and I would not take leverage because you don't know how fast things move,
and leverage requires precision, not just accuracy.
But I think that you're going to have a chance to kind of have an early inheritance.
And if you get panic selling from indexers who bought into it always goes up,
you can go to Crestmont Research and you can see that you get choppy decades.
About every four decades, you get a choppy decade.
Maybe we're getting into that.
And for the longer-term investor,
you want to buy these big corrections.
And I tell my folks,
scale in slow, small, and at wide price points.
I don't buy every 5% down. I'm looking
for double digit percentage price changes. You know, 5% to me, 7% to me, 8% to me, that's
volatility. 20%, 30%, 50%. That's creating a really good risk-reward equation.
I don't know that that's about to happen.
Seems like it's more likely than it has been in the recent past.
If it does, hold your breath, polish your rifle, load the powder, and wait for a chance to buy those 10 or 12 or 15 things
that you just think are the greatest ideas since sliced bread, and QQQ probably, or a
momentum S&P 500 fund because they beat the regular S&P 500 funds.
You know, I'm bearish short term, but the only response to any bad thing that happens is we all die and go to hell and the world, or we figure it out.
And we take the medicine, and sometimes the medicine has side effects, which could be inflation.
But if there is a side effect of inflation, asset prices do really well in that.
You do not want to be without assets if we get inflation. And the most recent bout
is proof of that, right? The people who sold their investments when it crashed in 2020
or 2022 and did not get back in are the worst ones off because they suffered inflation in their life
without inflation in their assets. So I would just say if you're going to trim,
you probably should have done it the last few months, but it doesn't hurt to trim now because
I don't think 5% or 10% is the real downside. If I'm wrong about that, sorry.
Go back to dollar costs averaging in or just be patient and wait for a bigger correction.
But I do think that if we get a great big correction, the next narrative, the narrative
that always happens during a giant sell-off is it's the end of the world. And people end up being
like deer in the headlights. I mean,
in Wisconsin, that's the thing. I don't know if it is where you all are. You know, and they don't
move and they just get run over. Don't be the deer in the headlights. Have a plan for what to do
if we get a real bear market. Because if we do, they're going to respond. They're going to do cash for clunkers.
They're going to do quantitative easing. They're going to do whatever. And then things go back up.
Historically, on average, three out of four years are up years. So if we get a down year or two or
one and a half or whatever, buy the hell out of it for the long
term. As far as the short term goes, you do you on your trading. Again, I could see a little rally
with reconciliation and the lifting of the debt ceiling that's historically happened in the past.
But I don't like this year in general because I think the tariffs are going to be negative.
I think the revenues are going to be flattish. I think the earnings are probably not going up.
They're probably going down and there's going to be a lot of transition, not my word,
that leads to some pain. And whenever there's pain, people point their fingers at other people and they sell
indiscriminately, and that is the greatest opportunity for an emotionally forward-thinking
investor, emotionally solid, intestinal fortitude.
You don't get over-emotional.
If you have a forward-looking plan saying, okay, can get rocket lab for 12 if i can get est space mobile
for 15 if i can get uh google for 110 if i can get apple for 150 you know just go down your list
what do you what about newsmax what about newsmax because newsmax is that is the next hot
hot thing i was just making a joke. I'm making a joke.
$30 billion market cap.
It's ridiculous.
Ridiculous.
What's their market cap?
$30 billion.
They're worth more than any other publicly traded media company, if I'm not mistaken now, based on today's clothes.
They're worth more than Warner Brothers.
So I have a book in development, and the working title is The Big Skim.
And if you go to hashtag Big Skim, you see that I throw it out there once in a while.
Man, that is one of the biggest, and I have a Breitbart story I could tell you too, because
they recruited me.
I'm just telling you that the money involved in media, pumps dumps man they are spectacular i mean they're
evil probably but they're spectacular i mean they're just they're case studies in pump and dump
so you know hey i i don't know what it costs to short that one uh it's not you're gonna be able
to short it ain't no it's such a low float, too.
There's no options on it.
But you had the number for that market cap, right?
What was it?
$39 billion?
It was like $30 billion.
Last I checked, this was right around the close, right before the close.
It was right at $30 billion with the high that it was making.
All right, Check this out. So $30 billion market cap revenue of $40 million.
That's what I'm looking at for the quarterly revenue.
That's just quarterly.
That's not the annualized.
1,500 PE, that's a bargain.
This is interesting.
But you know what?
That's all right.
So if you put a nugget in the bull case, let's put a nugget in the bull case.
That's what you want to see, right?
You want to see stuff like this.
You want to see what is the other core weave that acted like it just IPO today, catching the bid like you did.
That shows you risk on sentiment that's
wild valuation but very interesting kind of play I was just kind of making a joke there but it is
you're talking about a company that has a quarterly revenue that's only one percent of its total market
cap rate you know I know people with revenues like that.
Hey, I will throw something out there about buy the big correction.
And this is something that's got talked about for 30 years now.
I actually think it's going to happen eventually.
It might even happen under President Trump.
I think eventually we put part of the Social Security money in the stock market. And if that happens, think about the psychology of President Trump.
He wants the stock market to go up. What is a better way to pump up the stock market than putting
a quarter of the inflows from payroll taxes into the S&P 1500 or something.
Be perpetual bid.
Take a look at Japan.
I mean, yeah, people do that.
Yeah, people do it.
There's countries that do that, right?
It wouldn't be something that would be like,
oh my God, look at him now.
He's trying to bet our money.
You wouldn't want private equity in there picking and choosing,
but if you just used an index,
you know,
the three S and P five,
the 500,
400,
600,
and did a market cap weighted of the 1500 profitable ish companies in the,
in the country.
I mean,
suddenly everybody becomes vested again and you don't have private equity and the richest 1% of the people owning 50% to 70% of everything.
Well, that still would be the case, right?
Because inflationary-wise, it probably wouldn't balance itself out if you can't believe in that monetary theory.
itself out if you if you can't believe in that monetary theory yeah that you know it's like
oligarch it's like oligarch level it's like the stage of oligarchs right like everybody has a
piece of the pie but they're still like the person that still has like the majority of the piece of
the pie that can dictate how much everybody else could yeah but over the last 20 years and and i've
i've played with private equity because i want to get my beak wet, but so much has gone private in the last 20 years since the financial crisis, 15 years, 16 years.
It's pretty extraordinary when you just go look at some of Apollo's research.
when you just go look at some of Apollo's research.
They basically tell you that the world is going private
and that's great for them.
But they, you know, and then their other analyst comes out
and says that's bad for the stock market.
So, you know, it's kind of like analysts
and investment bankers at the same bank, right?
But the privatization of assets has been net negative for everybody except the people who are doing the aggregating.
So it would be a way of reversing that trend towards privatization back into the publicly traded realm.
I do actually think that would be good.
You know, you take a look at the housing market.
It's 7% or 8% or 9% privately owned now by big investors,
you know, institutions and stuff, hedge funds, REITs.
That was never the case.
They never owned more than 1% of the single family homes before.
And then since the financial crisis, they're pushing 10%.
You know, that's one of the reasons why we have surging rents that, you know, haven't come down.
They've been choppy for the last couple of years, but they haven't come down.
You know, I think we need answers to income inequality. And I think they're probably less traditional than the far left or the far
right talk about, and they chant about, and they stomp their feet about, and pound the table about.
I think it's probably somewhere more considered in the middle. And I don't know exactly what it is,
but there's a lot of money in this country, folks. There shouldn't be the income inequality that we have.
But I don't know necessarily what the solution is.
Better education, financial literacy.
That's the solution.
They start teaching that a lot earlier.
They start teaching trades a lot earlier.
They start teaching how to be a functioning human a lot earlier.
Let's not go down that rabbit hole,
but they definitely needed to start doing that, right?
Because it's just not being taught.
I mean, even if you get to like 17, you know,
16 years old, 17 years old,
and you're just starting to dip your feet in the finance,
it might be a little bit too late, right?
You probably need to bring that a little bit more.
I understand what you're saying too, right?
You need to also have a source of capital.
But, you know, every once in a while, I know a lot of us up here, you know, once you start
getting the concept of money at a young age, you become a little bit of a hustler.
You know what I'm saying?
And even when you have a little bit of money, you still want to hustle.
And so if they can kind of ingrain that
a little bit earlier in life, that could also help out, you know, and less dependency in some
respects here. And I'm talking as a guy that leans a little bit towards the liberal side,
centralist-ish, right? But I think there's also a need to kind of readjust the education side of it to be able to get greater access to these things.
And especially now, man, we have so many free tools that are out there, just in general, free trading platforms.
You have all this knowledge base that's online now and all of these things.
It's like, you know, get these kids to be able to learn.
I think you're spot on. Like, you know, get these kids to be aware of that.
I think you're spot on.
And I don't think it would hurt Americans to take a look at the German education system.
Also learn how to change tires and stuff, right?
It's just like basic stuff.
Hey, shout out to the skilled trades guy.
I don't know exactly the skilled trades. hey i wasn't joking earlier i said i dropped my key down a freaking sewer today and i had to have
public works come out and help me out you know so they came out lifted the sewer grate we got a
grabber we got my key back you know i mean not everybody wants to take that job and it's a good
job it's an important job and plumbers andbers and anything that's engineering of any kind and electricians and mechanics
and the people who are going to be controlling the robots to do the construction and the
agriculture in the future.
You're right.
Our education system is part of why we have such a big mismatch. Isn't it like 12 million jobs that are mismatched in this country?
Yeah, but that's generational. I was just going to call that out. You know what's very funny about it is that we think about the here and now. So I'm 34, about to be 35 this year.
I'm 34, about to be 35 this year.
When I was a freshman in high school,
going into eighth grade,
going into a freshman in high school,
what was the cool thing to do, right?
And I'm not saying that, like, don't do this,
but it's like, hey, you go get your four-year degree,
learn something in business, finance, computers.
That was the big thing.
And then even after you're done with your undergrad, go get your
graduate's degree. Boom. You know, like you could be banking out more. And then now it's like,
we told everybody to do that. And now we have an oversupply. And then we did not tell enough
or didn't guide enough. I don't even know how you do this or how you say it in the most polite way,
but we did not provide maybe the opportunities
for other skills in trades.
And I can tell you right now,
I got a buddy that works in HVAC.
He owns his own business now.
Started off doing it.
Homeboy, he's making bank,
like serious cheddar, right?
Is he burning up on a roof every once yeah
but homeboy's clocking probably like 75 80 an hour I mean he has his own business now
but these guys are they're clocking garb people think oh looking down on like people that uh
garbage men like you make like serious bank doing that stuff, auto mechanics. So we have now a supply deficit of the trades, and we have an oversupply of, I don't even call it the skill, but white-collar skilled workers that now might be being phased out.
But what you're also probably seeing right now is a shift where everybody's like, dude, I just want to do a trade.
I want to drive a truck.
I want to own a truck.
I want to move freight, or I want to own a truck. I want to move freight or I want to do this, that and the other. And we might be, and obviously the student loan debt situation
and the way that education has just been completely inflated just in general, as far as
cost, which is absolutely ridiculous is also deterring people. So like we go through these
like weird, not even weird, but these cycle,
20 year cycle shifts of like, hey, everybody needs to do this. Go to college. You're going to have
your white picket fence and your new home, and you're going to do this, that, and the other,
right? And then now it's like, you kind of look over your shoulder and just like, all right,
your auto mechanic is easily making 75
an hour off of you base rate easily right for like the most basic of i don't want to say basic or basic of things but you know hours of work 75 bucks an hour you're clocking you you can really
do some damage there right and then on the entrepreneurial side of that the trades are a
lot easier to really able to start something up than it is on the
services front, especially now. Well, now AI is going to help that out a little bit, but
this is how it shifts. And I know for us, we used to have those tests. This will be the last thing
I say. I got to go. We used to have these tests. It was like, oh, your career finder and stuff,
which is kind of odd.'s like seventh grade eighth grade or
whatever and they get you this thing and they give you a list of like the 10 top jobs that you or
industries that you could work in i don't know maybe i just went to a weird school but in illinois
i'm pretty sure they did this everywhere uh and then you're like oh okay these are like the five
things that i should actually look into and it just kind of like drives you in one little spot.
I'm kind of ranting here. I was listening to Louis C.K. yesterday. Man, I have it on my Spotify
and I forgot the skit. It's the one there he's talking about. He did a comedy show at a vocational
high school. That's the only thing I know about that. But like, if you just look, Google it,
if you guys want a really funny laugh,
just Google it because it is actually
really relevant and pretty funny here.
So I appreciate you guys having me on.
I know we're kind of getting off topic here,
but I hope everybody has a prosperous day.
Kurt, everybody else up here.
Always love talking to you guys.
Appreciate you for having me on
and talk to you guys maybe tomorrow.
Peace out.
Peace.
All right.
Appreciate everyone that tuned in today.
I'm going to close it down at this point.
If you want to go back and listen to it, of course, it is recorded.
And you can check it out from the beginning.
Or you can just tune back in tomorrow, 3 p.m. Eastern.
I'm assuming we'll be live right when most of those announcements
happen. So make sure you tune in tomorrow. Stock Talk, Gav, Evan, all of them should be back with
us as well. And we will see all of you guys then. And of course, check out all the great spaces we
have over on Wolf Financial. You can see the pinned tweet over there as the schedule. And yeah, that is it for this day, this Tuesday, April the 1st, and Liberation Day coming tomorrow.
Take care all.
Hope you have a great, great rest of your evening. Thank you.
