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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: June 10, 2025 Duration: 3:01:57Space Recording
Short Summary
Tesla's groundbreaking advancements in autonomous driving technology, highlighted by the launch of the first fully unsupervised Tesla in Austin, Texas, signal a transformative trend in the automotive industry. As the market reacts positively, with stock prices nearing all-time highs, the potential for strategic partnerships and fundraising opportunities emerges, positioning Tesla as a leader in the integration of AI and autonomous technology.
Full Transcription
Thank you. you Yo, yo, hello.
What is up?
We got a wild headlight coming out here a couple seconds ago, a couple minutes ago.
And all it was was, hey, talks are going well.
We hope we're done tonight from Lutnick over in London.
Talks should be resuming right about now, actually.
That was probably comments of him walking in the door would be my guess.
They were saying 8 p.m. Eastern.
That's what time it is in London.
New logo.
Who dis?
The old logo.
We don't need to talk about how long it was a chat GPT thing for,
but let us know on this new one.
We're making it.
I enjoy it.
Definitely think it's better than the other one.
If you guys have any thoughts, let us know.
Go into the Soxone Spaces profile as well.
If you're in here, you're one of the ones who really enjoy the page, getting new nice and early. Check out the thumbnail
photo too. I think that one is really, really nice. So I'm excited for this conversation today.
Yeah, this last move here in the last couple seconds is from that one comment about Lutnik
probably walking in the door to hopefully finish those trade talks with China.
QQQ now like five, six dollars away from hitting new all time highs. And obviously one of the big
stories of the day is around Tesla, FSD, the first fully unsupervised Tesla on the road in Austin,
Texas being spotted. Soir Amerit, like everybody, everybody in the Tesla world retweeted his video from Elon
to the Tesla account to even Bloomberg, every single Tesla employee. They were clearly very
excited for this moment. So yeah, it's an interesting time in the market. Good time to
be the owner of some TSLT, which is the 2X long Tesla ETF. Shout out, RecShares. And Emp, I'll
throw it over you to to get us started but i
really do want to hear everyone's thoughts and comments down below if you're still in here on the
new profile picture for the stocks and spaces account uh if you have any thoughts on it i'm a
fan but it's definitely uh something we we don't need to change shout out to that amp over to you
over to you
and if you guys heard nothing i just said did you hear me i heard everything i'm sorry i was
literally you know i was stuck on the banner the new banner i was taking a look at it i was like
okay stock price of tesla is 309 when this was created microsoft force said pretty new pretty
pretty new interesting i like it yeah New profile pic who this, uh,
set out to whichever person did that. I have no idea.
I saw it and I was like, what? I actually confused me.
I thought I went to the wrong account when I was opening up the space here. Um,
but yeah, here we are, um, ripping on those comments. Um,
Tesla obviously getting excited for that. Uh,
what you were mentioning a little bit earlier we
were actually live on the tesla deep dive space and uh sawyer came on like as soon as that happened
i heard it coming out and yeah we saw a uh a left turn from a tesla without anybody in the
driver's seat there in austin and uh here we go New high of day. Market's ripping. It's been back and forth.
It's been kind of an interesting day. Nvidia's really pushing right here with the market.
When I look across, I see Tesla up 5%. What else? Everything else is, what, a percent?
Google had a good day, 1.7%. Nvidia's just under a percent. Microsoft a little red today.
1.7% and the video is just under a percent. Microsoft a little red today.
On green days, we look at the 2x long ETF, TSLT up 10%.
Yeah, I have my TSLL position is doing very well. I'm up 16% on that from buying it the other day.
Yeah, it's been a day. I don't know. The market's been so back and forth, though.
We had that.
The other piece of news that stuck out to me, and then we'll kind of get to the panel here.
The tax bill, Speaker Johnson made some comments, and this is kind of when we had that drop mid-morning,
was basically saying that they have some backup bills ready, which I think the market kind of read into as, okay, there's an issue with
this big, beautiful bill, the greatest bill. We're about to hit 22,000 on the NQ futures here. What
a ripper. But yeah, that was the one interesting thing that kind of happened when we had the little
down move this morning.
We saw some headlines out of that that maybe there were some issues with the tax bill going on.
But outside of that, I mean, I guess mostly positive news.
I think the market kind of was waiting all day for an update out of London.
We wears 1% off all-time highs on QQQ.
I think we're pretty much there.
On QQQ, I just measured it.
We were 1.2 and
then this last little pop here depending how much this pop is we are 1.09 here i'll i'll tell you
it's um going to be 535 like 10 11 would be my guess hey guys sorry what was the news that just
made this pop happen it's best uh sorry l sorry, Lutnik, who was it?
Lutniks, as he's walking into the talks with China, said the trade talks with China are going really well.
Hope talks end this evening.
Wow, amazing.
Yeah.
And given the time, this is when they were going in to reconvene.
It's probably a video of him walking in saying that.
It's probably a video of him walking in saying that.
Yeah, so there's your headline.
I was measuring that out for a little bit.
Where is it?
535, 20?
535, like 41.
Gotcha.
A little higher than I was expecting.
Okay, close enough.
All right, let's jump into it.
Options Mike, you're my right-hand man, I think, a lot of times when we get going on these spaces, Gotcha a little higher than I was expecting. Okay close enough. All right. Yeah, let's jump into an options Mike
You're uh, my right hand man I think a lot of times when we get going on these spaces bringing in your thoughts
If you want to do my voice you gotta do it, right?
Otherwise, I'm gonna have to cancel you and fire you if you want to do my voice you gotta do it, right?
Look this guy just make the markets explode
He's got bleeding kids in his car and you want to listen to him
Just listen, elon and I are not buddies. We're frenemies now, but his car things going good
So I'm gonna give him a break star and great product and
You know, I told you to buy the market a month ago and here we are and in all honesty here guys
I mean the markets been wanting to go up. We've been talking about this for
weeks on end and
You know, we're grinding our way
higher here. We know we're nicely above 600 now. Again, 605 and 610 and 613 is your all-time high
area on the SPY. And I've been saying for a while, I think we're going there. NVIDIA bouncing back
nicely highs of the day. People are looking for NVIDIA to get some type of relief to China as
part of this deal. Tesla, I mean,
it's running into this. I've been trading. I took Tesla. I had Tesla overnight, sold it,
and traded it four times today, and just closed everything out there for the day.
Very nice move there. It was kind of one of a weird days. There was some rotation. We saw
names like UPS running today. saw home builders running today we saw energy
names up and we saw a lot of our big tech names took the day off which is
nothing wrong with that right I mean that's there's nothing wrong with that
you know a day of rest in a name like meta and Amazon and Microsoft which have
been so strong the semis are highs of the day they breaking out here AMD's on
highs arms on highs taking out yesterday's highs
i don't know what the hell got into intel today i didn't treat it but that thing it took off
this afternoon and hasn't stopped moving since then you know we do have cpi tomorrow and i don't
think the market's really caring too much i don't think the market's heavily looking at that right
now we have ppi on thursday as well. But I mean, honestly, guys,
the market just is strong. It's this little rotation back and forth. They're moving around.
You know, Tesla now, after all that weakness, they're buying it back here. And it's just had
this really nice move. Will it go all the way back up? I don't know. Honestly, there's only
going to be, what, I believe 10 or so cars deployed to Austin to start before they ramp up to 30 to 40 over time.
So, you know, what you're really looking for here for news out of this is you just want to hear they're doing pickups and drop offs and everything's going well.
Right. And that's what you're looking for from Elon.
You don't want to hear there was involved in a car accident crash, you understand my point or something like that, because it's just not going to be it's not a needle mover right now in terms of the amount of volume they're going to do.
They're just not. We just want to hear that. And I don't know, you know, I'd love to say something bad.
I got nothing to say here other than the market just feels strong. You know, will we get a deal today?
The market just feels strong.
Will we get a deal today?
Again, I don't expect us to get any kind of deal to come here today out of this to China.
I expect there to be agreements, some kind of acknowledgments here, an agreement to do certain things together.
Both sides need a win, so I'm sure we're going to get something out of it.
I would guess rare earth metal is going to be part of it and our chip
curve controls are going to be part of our move back to them. And, you know, and then we'll see
where we go from there and then we'll turn our attention elsewhere. But overall, I got nothing
bad to say here today. Options, Mike, real quick. Intel was up because Imperial college of london excuse me chose intel xeon 6 for their supercomputer
ah okay thank you i couldn't find it i was like what the hell is driving that move today
all right i wouldn't think that's a huge thing for them but okay
logical
logical
yeah hey i gotta drop off in like uh 15 minutes so i just wanted to uh get some thoughts in here
um yeah market is extremely strong i am like the longest i've ever been in my trading career at
this point obviously i'm uh very quick to manage the additional exposure.
But at this moment in time, like, I don't know, it, it feels like it's a perfect situation.
I mean, you're sitting at like 603, 604, spy, all-time highs at 613. I don't think anybody
would take the other side of the bet of, you know, we're not going to make new all-time highs or whatever, right? Like, so you still have a lot of positioning offsides.
You know, I continue to follow a lot of these guys who give good institutional level data for the markets.
I don't know if any of you guys follow like Connor Bates or, um, Ryan Dietrich, Ryan Dietrich's been giving out a lot of great info on,
basically.
So Ryan Dietrich has been giving like returns info,
seeing,
you know,
what happens to the spy,
you know,
after days like this happened,
what,
what is one month,
three months,
six months,
12 month returns look like.
and when you have a period where you have,
he just posted something last night where it was like, if you have a period of two month returns that are 20%
or higher, on average, the market is up 30% a year later in the last five or six instances that this
has happened. And it's never been read in a one, three, six or 12 month period after that. And so
you keep seeing things like that.
Then Connor Bates has been posting info,
like random charts from basically studying positioning
by different funds.
And it still shows that long exposure is still really light.
It's gotten better.
It's improved, but it's nowhere near overbought.
I think the general consensus is that people are still underweight equities
and are going to have to chase, which is why I think that
when you get these intraday dips, like we saw earlier in the day,
actually twice now today, which is crazy, you just kind of see these big dips,
and they get bought up immediately.
And I think it's because, you know, and if you pay attention to the price action for
the last couple of weeks, few weeks, it's basically just been like market kind of starts
slightly green, maybe a little red, and then it just chugs higher throughout the day, which
kind of tells me that there's some buyers kind of like sitting at the VWAP waiting for,
you know, to be filled on any sort of equity exposure without driving the price higher
at the really high volume purchases. So that it just feels like extremely mechanical buying.
And that's what I've been feeling. So and then you are seeing a proliferation of setups in
small cap stocks, which is where I've been believing that the market
rally can essentially broaden out to. I think the Russell is probably the most shorted index,
I'm assuming. Maybe biotechs are more short than that. So from a positioning standpoint,
I feel really good about that because that's just going to add to the buying pressure when it
inevitably gets to that point. You still have a lot of great fundamental value. I'm not really a proponent for
trading the IWM or XVI necessarily, more so individual stocks that are in the small cap
or biotech world or the small cap biotech world. There's just a lot of standouts. Alistair, OUST,
there's just a lot of standouts.
Alster OUST has an extremely strong chart, up 8% today.
AIP, another RoboTaxi name in the small cap space, is up 3%.
AEHR Air Test Systems up 4% today.
I think it's believed that, I'm not sure if it's confirmed or not,
but there's like speculation that their largest customer is Navitas NVTS, which has gone crazy through that NVIDIA investment
recently.
Techogen, TGen up 3% today.
They have a partnership.
It's like a, it's a, sorry, what's the market cap on this?
It's 150 million market cap now.
I'm kind of crazy.
I found this at 60 million, now 150 million.
And they have a partnership with Vertiv, which is a $40 billion leader in the cooling space
in the data centers.
I mean, there's just so many of these like gems.
Core Scientific is one that StockDoc has mentioned.
I joined him on this trade.
Was kind of treading water, kind of red a little bit today and just flip green towards the height of the day.
It's just so much opportunity.
If you look at Bitcoin, it just looks like one big cup and handle.
You know, we're at a point where, yeah, I mean, sure.
Can all of these, you know, setups fail?
There's just so many setups and they all look so good. And I just find myself constantly
adding more exposure because like every other day I'm, you know, finding a new name, I'm finding new
ideas. And I look at the chart, I look at the fundamentals, I look at, you know, the momentum,
I look at the volume. I'm like, man, these things are just kind of like riding up into the right.
They're kind of at like, you know, trying to get out of these stage one bases. So if these, if the collection of these stocks end up exiting these stage one bases and
heading into stage two uptrends, you know, that's, it's just, it feels like it could end up being a
very unstoppable market. And, you know, in terms of these tariff talks, I, you know, if they're,
if Howard Lutnick, the probably worst person besides Peter Navarro over the last four months, comes out and says, you know, the trade talks are going well and we want to finish them tonight.
I mean, you know, that's pretty it's a very big change of tone for what's basically been happening.
so it's kind of like when people were constantly concerned about inflation back in 2024 last year
you know we kept talking about on these spaces people would bring up oh you know there's going
to be a reflation narrative and you know all that stuff and you know maybe inflation has been stickier
um and it has restricted rates from coming down to an extent. But in my view, inflation was a story of 2022, maybe 2023.
But my point is that a lot of these major events or catalysts or whatever, macro dynamics,
I think a lot of the ones that we already know about are in the rear view, including tariffs.
I know maybe some won't agree with me on that, and there's still going to be impacts down the road of what that ends up being.
But the point is that we already are past the peak of uncertainty around that.
So, you know, I think maybe inflation is a 2022 story.
Rates were a 2023 story.
You know, tariffs were an earlier part of this year's story.
Now, what it's going to take for this market to roll over
is going to require a new catalyst.
That's kind of the camp I'm in right now.
And until that new catalyst comes
that is going to destroy the market.
Otherwise, I understand that we have- Logic? Yeah, logical people. That could destroy the market. Otherwise, I understand that we have...
Logic?
Yeah, logical people.
That could be the bonds.
Yeah, Google, they're doing buyout offers
to employees and platforms and devices.
Ad space?
Yeah, yeah.
Well, do you think that bonds could be it?
And I'm not a bond guy,
and I keep looking at the bonds, what's going on.
See, one of the few things that worries me in this market.
Yeah, I mean, maybe, right?
I think it could potentially be something that ends up being restrictive, just like reflation was sticky and, you know, has ended up being a problem.
But in my view, it's not going to be enough to take the market down.
I think it could be something that people get concerned about and
causes pullbacks along the way. But I think that the real thing that's going to take us down
isn't something that everyone is already fearful about today, because those things are already
known. So that's kind of where I said, I mean, there's no like secret, right? We have like the
nine trillion of bonds maturing in July. I think everybody knows that, right? And so, and the market knows that
and they're still bidding this thing.
So, that's just kind of my stance here.
And is, maybe CPI tomorrow is maybe a catalyst
for bonds to the upside
where we can potentially start pricing in more rate cuts if it comes in
cool. I saw a forecast, I forgot which firm it was, but basically they're estimating that it
comes in cooler than estimates. Not too cool where it's like the downfall of the economy,
but more so cool enough where maybe we can start seeing inflation kind of cooling down and we can get to more rate cuts or at least sooner rate cuts.
So, and, you know, in the last 15 minutes, I just saw a bunch of
builder first source BLDR calls come in for June. So maybe that's a play on the CPI tomorrow.
I'm not too sure. But yeah, I mean, right, like, we are at a point where,
you know, the Russell's still
below the 200 day. And so there could be a lot of room to the upside, if that thing is able to
reclaim it. If we have any sort of easing in the rate policy, that could fuel the next leg higher.
So I'm just keeping an open mind, right? Like everything I'm talking about today. Yeah,
I'm very quick to modify my exposure levels right now. I'm extremely long. Uh, but if I found
reasons to be more cautious or like these technical setups that look so beautiful today
ended up failing, then that would be an easy place for me to take a small hit.
I have a lot of cushion on my year-to-date performance already,
so I'm willing to take a little bit more risk knowing that I can't afford to give some back
and I'm willing to juice it if we get that upside scenario.
And I can just turn off a lot of the additional exposure I have, basically.
So that's
kind of how I'm playing it.
Appreciate those thoughts. Logical. Shy, what's up? Good afternoon. I want to bring you in,
see what thoughts you have. I know there's
probably some things on your radar as well. I also want to get your reaction to the Tesla news that
we had today. We finally saw a video of a car without a driver in it. Yeah, I mean,
could not have come at a better time. Honestly, being a Tesla shareholder has been absolutely
nuts the past couple of weeks uh not a couple weeks I mean
I think it's actually just been one one week not even a week the past couple days have felt like a
month if you're a Tesla shareholder it's been kind of crazy but today is a massive milestone I think
it's important not just to see today's uh that video of the first time ever the public seeing
a Tesla Model Y driving itself uh in Austin with the really dope ass
RoboTaxi logo on the passenger seat. I think it was just more than just a random symbolic video.
It was more symbolic than what just the video indicated to me because I think it's been a
decade in the works where yes uh it came
out of nowhere it isn't didn't feel like a real announcement like oh today is gonna be the first
time the public sees the Tesla Model Y driving and stuff but it was just a moment in decades in
the making that finally this isn't just a prototype this isn't just uh a beta user
clutching me on the wheel like this was Elonon's vision of what a driverless test will
look like and we saw it out in the wild like it had its own vision-based ai uh it didn't have any
lead uh lidar it didn't have any kind of fallback human that's sitting behind the glass like it was
raw and real and yes it was in a closed environment a sensitive geofence streets and it was confined
in a sandbox per se but it doesn't matter anymore like this was a much bigger accomplishment because
we're past that prototype phase sure it's a controlled setting it's going to be a small fleet
um but it was the first tangible proof i think for a lot of people in the market, myself, etc.
And seeing them stock up was almost 6% now is
because we're finally seeing that tangible proof that
Tesla's end-to-end autonomy stack has finally became a reality.
And that's where things start.
The narrative starts changing a bit because this,
I think, if this was six months ago,
I think that was more of an argument that,
is this an EV company?
Is this an AI software company?
I think it's overwhelming that this is
clearly not an EV company anymore.
The capitalization of their core business of automotive sales
has been very in-your-face month after month,
ever since the election, to be honest.
So I think now that this is truly a trillion-dollar startup
with 2% operating margins, that this is an autonomy.
This is going to be a leader in the physical AI realm.
I realm it's going to be one that's trying to build a neural network of physical AI and
It's going to be one that's trying to build a neural network of physical AI.
going past the prototype phase is huge for a company like that especially that's built
on a narrative it has no fundamentals be backing on being a trillion dollar company uh it's
actually really ugly fundamentals but everyone's looking past that because of the scalability of what Elon's autonomy vision is.
I mean, Google's cars, the Waymos, they're 200K.
It costs 200K essentially per car.
It's not scalable.
And it's also much smaller ceiling on how they can scale autonomy than what Tesla's is trying to conquer.
autonomy than what Tesla's is trying to conquer.
I do want to reiterate, this is a great W today, but there's still such a ways to go
for it to really move the needle on a fundamental backing.
I think it's going to catch a bid due to the narrative change, clearly.
But to actually get that FSD revenue autonomy fundamentals hitting their fundamentals, it's
going to take some time
and I want to reiterate the panic on uber shouldn't be over exaggerated like as people
shouldn't over exaggerate the narrative that uber is screwed now because of the success waymos had
in the past like gear and now today's tesla's autonomy uh went on going past the prototype stage.
Now it's going to cement.
It's the last nail in the coffin for Uber.
That's just not the case.
Uber is going to be the aggregator model that's designed for a world that is going to have
autonomous fleets.
That's going to be not just one winner.
It's going to be multiple winners and they're going to centralize them.
And I think Uber is going to be a great partner for that.
So I think, yes, the narrative risk on uber is real it's probably going to be very similar to
Google search narrative debacle like if you're a Google shareholder you know that not just the
annoyance but how long it takes to shake a narrative from your from the stock price you
can be executing flawlessly under the hood you've seen that the google search revenue is igniting showing any kind of sequential decline
yet but everyone's pricing in google like search is gonna get destroyed and i mean it's gonna
change it's gonna look different i don't know if it's gonna get destroyed but it's gonna look
different but the way that the price is the stock price has been acting lagging it feels like it's
gonna become like the blockbuster for some reason I'm not blockbuster the Blackberry first Apple and
becoming a Mac 7 and that's just not the case just the consumer side softening either way
the reason I say that I think it's gonna be a probably a difficult near term on Uber stock
price because that narrative risk that just won't get shaken and as more momentum of Tesla's 80 breakthroughs
signal and accelerate timeline towards I don't know human human driver obsolete
just being no-go I think that is gonna be an anchor on uber stock price so
doesn't mean it's gonna go away it's just it's just an annoying thing that a
lot of Google shareholders have experienced for a while in search but either way
as a tester shareholder this is great uh love to see it this is just know that this is not gonna
happen overnight uh but also know that this is no longer theoretical it's real we have tangible
evidence of it the first domino has fallen and tesla does in a way control its own
timeline and execution now because the first step is the hardest step so uh i think that tesla is the
only player position to drive both the hardware and software element of av and that's what makes
the scalability just so bonkers um but i just just put your foot on the brakes a bit on the fundamentals flowing through.
But other than that, yeah, I mean, the market is just resilience.
I think there is definitely a pain trade that's happening right now.
It's been happening.
I think what Logical was saying is like really accurate.
Like, think about what new variable risk can hit the market for it to kind of buck this trend.
We're entering the summer months right now.
I agree with Mike's sentiment that the bond market is just been confusing.
It's has been confusing for a while now and not just it's not a recent phenomenon either.
So bond market and equities are clearly saying conflicting messages.
But end of the day, I do believe that if like the 10 year yield hits a 5%,
like things will get ugly and it's going to force Trump's hand on something. But you have
to ask yourself like what's being priced in the market and a lot of fear and FUDs been
priced in the market and the East versus West here for is not. It's not being solved yet.
The tenure, the interest rates aren't getting cut yet.
Didn't really matter.
So I think that you have to ask yourself like what's next black swan like maybe the fed
don't cut interest rates in September and August will just be a pain trade of just maybe the
pullback happens then.
I just think it's really difficult to be bearish in the market in the summer months when there's low volume. And a lot of the moves is usually a transcending season.
And right now, it's clearly up to the right.
I just think it's pretty aggressive, the VGA.
But yeah, he's got to follow market sentiment.
But everyone should be very happy.
Just two months ago, it was pretty grim out there.
It was pretty ugly.
And now it's good.
Cy, do you think that the summer is different this year because of the recent events?
Do you think that that changes anything at all in regards to the seasonality?
I would say yes if you asked me a couple weeks ago.
But over the weekend, I forgot it was two weekends ago, but we got some bad China-US news.
I was like okay ugly
monday open the market digested that information really it was a red pre-market but digested itself
pretty well at the open and that was kind of a way that was a signal for me i was like all right
mark is digesting bad news now and it's not impacting the way it's been acting prior months
so i think this is is not a potential bond,
but I think we're at a next phase of this market rally
that we experienced since April 7th.
Also, keep in mind, the reason I say paint trade is,
you can call it dumb money, fine,
but I don't think it's dumb money anymore
when the scoreboard has been on the retail side the past couple years.
Retail was buying that dip.
Institutions weren't.
Institutions were actually kind of going on the sidelines.
So now there is a ton of capital that really needs to get infused into the markets.
What is it?
Yeah, so I think that's what the paint trade is.
Now they're paying a premium associated to participate in the market when things are
clearly not as bad as feared.
But retail bought it at April 7th, April 8th, and now two months later, institutions are
going to have to buy it up.
And that's how melt-ups happen.
That's why the paint trade is a reality where um you feel like
that the feel the tape's like levitating in a way it's just going up and every shallow dips game
bots with bids and logical mention like the charts are just looking up to the right and it's real
like it's there's just so many blow setups left and right and i think that the market's interface
where it feels like if you're not participating,
you're experiencing like you want to thumb up chasing.
But as a long-term investor, I don't like this environment.
But as an institutional one where you get paid for participating in rallies
and if you miss out on it, it's pretty detrimental to your performance.
That's where I think a lot of liquidity is going to reenter the market.
But Godfather, I'll pass it to you.
Yeah, I just got a couple of data points to back up what you're saying regarding that
pain trade.
So, you know, the average long only institutional and hedge fund, they're both under the 30%
tile in terms of performance.
They're still licking their wounds from the early March drawdowns.
And you're seeing, you know, this melt up, right?
Six days in a row here, six of the last seven days.
Smalls outperformed bigs.
Cyclocos have outperformed defensive.
Laggards have actually started to outperform the leaders here.
You know, value over growth, you know, non-profitable tech over quality, you know, of late.
So, you know, this is all evidence of exactly that pain trade.
And a couple of guys hit on this.
Yeah, there is talk about a lighter CPI print tomorrow, mostly on the heels of sharply lower energy prices.
I think there's expected to be some volatility on the food side, but sharply lower energy prices is enough to keep that lower.
I will note that you're seeing a little bit of strength in TLT, of course.
Somebody mentioned the home builders. Oh, it was an options trade. I think
Logical mentioned that. But if you look at NAIL, which is the 3x ETF, it broke through its 50-day
moving average today, which I thought was interesting. So kind of confirmation of that again.
was interesting. So, you know, kind of confirmation of that again. I know a lot of houses are focused
on an economic view that actually gets worse over the summer. And, you know, what we're seeing now
is kind of this temporary pull forward bubble or what have you. But either way, you know, when you
see things like heavily shorted names outperforming, it speaks to this positioning. Retail has definitely
kicked ass. You can see it, you know, again, names that are really speculative in nature,
all these crypto treasury names, for example, you know, doing extremely well. So,
I even heard Mike Wilson this morning saying, hey, geez, you know, just don't fight this tape.
And, you know, I'm not sure I really understand what all the talk is
about the bond market here as far as I'm concerned. Under four and a half on the 10 year,
it's green light go for equities. And I thought this was an interesting stat that came on my
radar that July has actually been the strongest month of the year in the last 16 or 17 years. So maybe worth double checking that.
But if we got a seasonality boost on top of all this, then it should be an interesting time for
the market. A couple of things that I think are worth noting here. Everybody knows that
from an economic side, we've got this CPI number coming tomorrow morning.
Of course, we've got a 10-year note auction that's going to see a lot of eyeballs as well.
Thursday, Jabba's claims, and then the 30-year bond auction, which people used to not care about.
But, you know, given some nervousness there, people certainly are.
And then consumer sentiment on Friday.
Earnings-wise, GameStop today, for those that care. Oracle tomorrow and Adobe
Thursday, really light schedule. Jensen is doing a keynote in Paris at GTC tomorrow.
Just worthy to note because AI is obviously still the biggest theme in the market.
And then on Thursday, another heavyweight being Salesforce has their CNX25, which is their big AI agent force conference.
So that name could be topical on Thursday.
I just wanted to point those things out. In terms of what I was focusing on today, to try and take advantage of
some of this short trades, particularly in run, it was a nice all-day mover. LQDA and SEZL all day
sort of grind hires off of events that took them lower earlier. In LQDA's case, their competitor had strong results.
In Sezzle's case, it was some insider selling.
Those were profitable trades.
Somebody here mentioned Cores.
I can't remember who that was, but also a focus name on our side.
Of course, you got CoreWeave up 280% since its IPO.
You've got APLD up 90% year-to-date.
You've got Nebius up 65%, almost 70% year-to-date.
And Coors is still down year-to-date.
Just a little plug there.
I'm going to do a Simulcast X and YouTube at 1030 Eastern on Thursday.
It's a due diligence, fundamental deep dive on valuation for people who care about course.
I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Beautiful. Definitely will be keeping my eye out for that.
Appreciate those thoughts, Godfather.
Let's keep moving around here. Sam, I don't know if we've heard a lot from you today.
I know I heard you in another space, but Sam, what's your take on the conversation?
Tesla, bond markets, what market in general? Are we at peak good news? There's multiple topics we
could hit on here.
Well, first, do you hear any background noise from me?
Not really.
Okay, good.
You're a dad.
You get a free pass.
Yeah, because I'm sitting over here at the mall,
so I didn't want to catch a loud views in the background.
But to be honest, I mean, the bond market has not been showing any strength recently.
Even on a trending, trend following basis. You know, it's not exactly an asset that a lot of fund managers
want to go long on or overweight on. However, I think what happens is that whenever we correlate
or we overlay the move of TLT or the US 10 year yield over the stock market, whenever we get big
moves in the bond market, whether that's up or down, that's when it starts yield over the stock market. Whenever we get big moves in the bond market, whether that's
up or down, that's when it starts to impact the stock market. But it's been stabilizing recently,
and that's why we've noticed this significant melt-up in the market. I think a lot of the
people that are on here, we've been calling for a melt-up for quite some time ever since we've
crossed the 200-day moving average. And we're already seeing that tech just has a massive
outperformance in the market.
And to be honest, whenever this sort of thing happens, you have to undercapitalize from the fund managers, the NAIM index, exposure index is around 82 right now.
The average is around 95.
And once that goes over 100, that means that hedge fund managers in the survey are putting
on leverage.
We're not even there yet.
We actually went to below 80 the other week,
but now we're at 82. So things are getting, I don't want to say they're frothy, but
we are seeing some capitulation across the board when it comes to a lot of companies.
And it is currently the buy the dip stage, right? So just last week we had Tesla around the 270s
and a lot of people selling their Tesla stake. I'm not going to sit over here and judge people for selling anything,
but we're seeing the complete opposite today in terms of sentiment and price
action. And, uh,
I would not be surprised if there's certain people potentially and then buy
into Tesla again, given that nothing's actually really changed.
And then, uh,
the richest man in the world just went on an emotional banter on, uh,
on social media, which is nothing new to anyone.
Like that's been happening for a while
but you know i guess a little bit of fear did come into place when you have the richest man
in the world pretty much start a start a social media war with the most powerful man in the world
in terms of political power but here we are again tesla's up six percent today doing the normal
tesla thing as it always does moving moving based on sentiment, not really off of fundamentals.
The things that came up with Tesla last week as far as their auto market decelerating,
their margins are contracting. I mean, that was nothing new. That's been happening for a couple of years now. And that shouldn't really change the thesis when it comes to Tesla. I wouldn't
even say that for me, I'm not investing in Tesla because I think they're going to have a good
quarter next quarter. I'm investing in Tesla because in a few years from now, actually, maybe a little bit longer time for that one, they're going to solve the autonomy.
They're going to solve the robotics. They're going to be on Mars at some point and so on and probably beyond Mars and whatever, maybe in a few decades.
That is what I would be investing in Tesla.
Not as far as what tweets you're going to see on Twitter in terms of Musk bantering about Trump anytime soon. But that's the reason why you'd be
investing in Tesla. And investing is much different from trading. Trading is way different from
investing. But if you're a buy and hold person with Tesla, this is really nothing new. I mean,
I'm not a long-term shareholder of Tesla, but I'm not even surprised of seeing this price action and
seeing it push over here, bouncing off those moving averages and coming up here. But besides
that, we have a couple of our and coming up here but besides that we
have a couple of our earnings coming up after hours today uh one that i talked about earlier
with gitlab ticker simple gtlb they're posting a uh 26 uh growth quarter year of a year um sorry
coming in at 26 growth year of a year and uh assuming that everything's going to be okay they
could be a gap profitable once again this quarter, but we'll see.
I think there's a lot of negative sensitive when it comes around this
company,
seeing that Google did sell,
sell about 22% of its stake in the company.
And they were actually one of the largest shareholders in the company,
but now no longer anymore.
But at the same time,
that doesn't actually have a change of thesis.
That just means that a large tech firm that was bullish Google is,
I'm sorry,
bullish GitLab isn't as bullish a GitLab as they were last quarter based on the amount of sun they've been doing.
But at the same time, if you're going to stick with a company for the long term, you're going to invest in leaders.
This is the leader of the DevOps security platform.
I use this software every single day, and maybe I'm a little bit biased toward it.
But the financials that are set in the company look pretty good.
But the financials that are set in the company look pretty good at the rate that it's growing, at the price you're paying for the company, growing at 26 percent and probably going to beat those earnings as they beat earnings 15 out of 15 times the last three years, four years.
I think they're going to continue to execute.
And I think that paying around six to seven times enterprise value over the next 12 months sales is a pretty good price to pay for this company.
And if I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. You know, I'm wrong. That's the reason why we diversify our portfolio. It's because we're never going to
be right 100% of the time. And don't get me wrong. Anyone who says they're right 100% of the time,
just run away from them because no one is ever right 100% of the time, but that's a reason why
we risk manage to account for those risks. And for me, I think the earnings are going to do well.
I can't really speak for how the market's going to react to it,
but I definitely think it's undervalued in terms of historical valuation for the company.
But again, backdrop that with the meltdown continuing,
I see no reason for this to be back in the 80s, maybe the next year.
Now, go ahead and pull me on that, and maybe it's not in the 80s for the next year.
That's fine.
I'm a long-term shareholder in this one, so I'm okay to win on that one.
But besides that, software has been a little bit underperforming the queues lately so if it does if software continues on the queues being under underperforming the socks etf you know then so be
it but at the same time you know you have like these little plays that give you opportunities
like google and the 157s and then you had tesla get over 300s and then now you had
bitcoin hit the 100k mark and then bouncing back from that hitting pretty much close to new all-time
highs i mean those are really the opportunities for the short-term trades there in my opinion
sorry cut that one off that's it it. No, you're fantastic.
Wolfie, we haven't heard from you yet fully.
What thoughts do you have around the conversation and anything else you've got on your mind today?
I mean, they touched on pretty much the majority of it.
I've been like a net seller the last two days.
I've had a lot of things work, go my way.
So I've been trying to just collect profits where I have them.
And I found after doing that, so for example, I sold out most of CRSP,
sold out of Lemonade in full, took profits on some of this Tempest,
took all the ASTS calls off the table yesterday
with the exception of runners.
Sold all of the short-term ACHR options that I had.
So, you know, I've been just taking profits
on some of these mid-cap names
that I've been kind of focused on the last few weeks on setups.
I did take a trade on Google this morning
on the back of that OpenAI headline.
There's just like a day trade.
And I'm eyeing BABA on the back of, you know,
any sort of China headline.
The options aren't really pricing a move
like some of the moves that we've seen in baba in the past
outside of that some of these uh dislocated names some of these beaten up names that i've
been talking about starting to show signs of life for example retail um i you know i'd mentioned a
couple retail names before but i don't own many of them i do own some colds for example uh stocks had a pretty
aggressive move in the last few sessions uh pressed right up against 100 day so outside of
you know just some of these dislocated names and um you know taking profits on some of these names
that have moved i find that the balance of what i have remaining ends up being like some of these value names so
think like sepsi chevron just like these boomer boring names basically so um i'm not sure you
know maybe i'm i'm looking at it a different way but um i feel like the closer that we get to this
The closer that we get to this impending headline that we might get just ahead of Trump's birthday and the military parade on Saturday, that you get the headline and then get one of those profit-taking events potentially ahead of the Fed.
So I'd rather trade setups, individual names, and then as I get the profits, I book them.
They were talking about, some of the guys mentioned some of these crypto names.
Ethereum just broke out through its 200-day.
So I'm going to pay attention to whether or not Hood, Coin, etc. start to move on the back of it.
If I can throw
some two cents in there um but outside of that i just think get through tomorrow's cpi with
unscathed uh sets up for you know the end of the week friday the 13th announcement potentially
uh get through that you set up for the fed i don't think you want to
i think if i think if
you're trying to be contrarian you're just trying to be contrarian right so i you know if you're if
you get the headline uh and then you have something to shoot against you can shoot against something
but ahead of something like that i just think you know trying to pull uh you know, pee in, for lack of a better term,
trying to pee in the wind doesn't really benefit anybody.
And so I still want to be in situations where I'm taking setups.
I think for me right now, now that we've gone through some of this,
some of these mid-cap names that have moved aggressively,
some of these small cap names have moved aggressively, I'm kind of shifting from there to some of these beaten-up boomer names, for lack of a better term.
I've mentioned a couple of them.
Another one that looks interesting is Dow Inc.
It would be a beneficiary of a China headline.
They've got a lot of international exposure.
Triple M is another one that I'm kind of focused on.
They've got a lot of China exposure. And so, yeah,
so that's kind of the gist of where my head's at.
If I've got setups that look well, I'm
going to take them. More positioning from a
name-by-name basis than just an overall market
perspective i think the uh iwm we talked about it what was it two mondays ago whenever scott
redler was last on and i think logical and scott were having a conversation about it and uh the
the concept was to be long iWM through the 100-day.
That worked out.
Now you're pressing up against the 200-day.
You've got to wait for it to prove itself, in my opinion.
Otherwise, book your profits, shoot against it, whatever.
Outside of that, I think when we have these events that occur on Tesla specifically,
it's fun to talk about you know we we have these conversations about what could come down the pike uh from a negative perspective
or a positive perspective depending on the headline um you know on the back of elon having
a tirade some of the stuff that he was saying was just really crazy so to to have cooler heads prevail is a great step but i will say
that the stock is only back to where it was when it broke down last thursday right so at an
aggressive move you could get you know squeeze an additional squeeze into that uh robotexy event
on the 12th um but i just it's one of those names i wouldnaxi event on the 12th.
But I just, it's one of those names.
I wouldn't chase it on the way down.
I wouldn't chase it on the way up.
You know, when I say chase on the way down,
I like press my bet to the short side.
It's one of those names that it's going to give you these.
It's more to me until it goes from Elon being able to sell the dream,
sell the vision, unless you want to own it long-term.
It's a trading vehicle, in my opinion. So I'm looking for on Tesla that 338, 340 level, which is the 20-day breakdown pivot where it came from.
It gets through there.
It could probably get back up to that 350 range.
until we start to have recurring the robotaxi driver currently.
Until we start having recurring robotaxi sentiment or growth or metrics or stuff like that,
I think it's going to be one of those things where it's going to trade aggressively to the upside.
Bulls are going to have their way, trade aggressively to downsides.
Bears are going to tell you, I told you so.
So yeah, that's probably where I'd like to leave it. If you've got any you, I told you so. So yeah, that's pretty,
that's probably where I'd like to leave it. If you've got any questions, I'm happy to answer them.
Pretty good spot to leave it right there. We'll be appreciate your thoughts.
Definitely interesting to see how you got to figure that at some point there will be a hiccup with RoboTaxi
there will be a bunch of
hit pieces come out and there will be some
some fun and some more volatility
around you just have to
almost plan for that I guess
and to Sam's went earlier
sorry I forgot
so when you started talking about hiccups I started thinking about Uber
I tweeted something yesterday that i think is just it's not something
i'm calling for or anything that i'm expecting anything like that but it's just something to
kind of keep in the back of your head when we get this like um political unrest uh situation
um there's a lot of there's a lot of uh potential headline written not a lot but there's a lot of potential headline risk, not a lot,
but there's some potential headline risk, in my opinion,
for Uber and DoorDash on the back of any sort of mass deportations
and things like that.
I feel like if government starts poking around,
they could see some sort of, you know, social security number
abuse or, you know, some of these layered delivery. I don't want to call them scams,
because that's not what I'm trying to say. But just some of these people that are delivering
food on these platforms who are not supposed to have legal work. So I do want, I didn't want to
mention that, just kind of want to keep that if
if i'm if i'm a doordash or an uber investor it's kind of one of the things that i want to keep in
the back of my mind just in case right i'm not calling for i'm just saying it's one of those
things that could come down the pike sorry i just wanted to throw that in there
yeah appreciate that yeah uber will be interesting uh the this narrative around that and how it gets
affected by all this as well so good good call out there uh kirk got you up on stage haven't heard
from you yet today uh love to get some of your thoughts around this market yeah well i've been
waiting for the energy trade to pick up quite a while now.
And I think maybe it's finally moving.
Some of the boring names are starting to rise.
You've got Occidental Petroleum, which is opening up some Gulf of America wells.
You know, they're really expanding there.
That's probably where the growth in American oil will come from next year.
Not going to move a lot, but I think
that there's almost no downside given the Berkshire position. I think maybe make 20, 30 percent on
that in the next cyclical move there. Same thing with Permian Resources and Katera. They put out a
lot of natural gas as well as oil.
So I think that they're well positioned in the western part of the Permian Basin, given their gas to oil mix.
Again, 20, 30 percent upside on the next cyclical move.
Ametis, which I've mentioned here before, which I'm finally underwater on just by a little bit, but started to move off its bottom.
It has about a 19 or 18% short float, but that's down from what it was.
I think that you're probably going to see some of their catalysts hit in the next several months.
going to see some of their catalysts hit in the next several months. They have a
ruling on tax credits in California coming imminently. That's probably going
to be pretty positive. That's already been signaled. 45Z is a tax credit out of
the federal government. It looks like the Senate's going to keep it. That's good for renewable natural gas and sustainable aviation fuel.
They look like they're breaking ground on their new refinery in California soon for sustainable aviation fuel.
They have $3 billion in contracts with airlines already. So they have just a list
of catalysts that look like they'll be hitting over the next year or so, including an IPO of
their India operations, which is a debt-free refinery in India. It's the biggest biofuels
refinery in India. I think that that'll benefit from the
India trade deal that I think is probably coming. So I think there's a lot of good things with the
Metis. The risk there is obviously CapEx dependent, financing dependent, and regulation dependent.
So there's still plenty of things that can go wrong or more likely stretch out the timelines and make it more expensive and less profitable.
So, you know, we'll see how that works out.
The last time it short squeezed, it went up to around eight or nine.
That's why I'm still profitable.
I made a lot of money on that a few years ago.
It might be coming again.
I haven't seen any option activity yet.
Maybe I'll start buying calls, but I don't like the seasonality after the first week or two of July.
So I'm pretty shy about that sort of thing.
As far as another one, somebody mentioned liquefied natural gas last week.
I think that was you, Evan.
I'm not positive.
New Fortress Energy, which is...
There is never a world where I would mention liquefied natural gas.
Love you.
All right.
Somebody said it.
Somebody mentioned it.
I mentioned it.
I was talking about it.
Okay.
New Fortress Energy, which is run by Wes Edens,
New Fortress Energy, which is run by Wes Edens, the man who brought you Yanis Tentacpacombo, the Greek freak.
He bought some shares in his own company, NFE, recently, and they did a lot of refinancing.
They sold their Jamaica assets to bring down their debt.
They have catalysts in Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Brazil sometime soon,
could be as soon as this month, could be as late as never. But I think Mexico is all but assured.
Brazil, they're working on something. Puerto Rico, they're waiting on some things.
They're dealing with the Trump administration, though, and Wes Edens is a big Democrat,
so I don't know if he's going to get screwed with or not.
But I think that the upside on New Fortress Energy, which is also heavily shorted, I mean, them and Emetis, if things go well, the upside is, you know, multi-baggers.
The downside, I think, is pretty much all priced in.
It could chop along forever.
They both could chop along a really long time.
But I think the risk of chopping along
is worth the potential
to get 10 baggers out of these things.
So I'm pretty heavy in both.
I own about a half a million shares of Ametis.
My clients own more than that.
And my subscribers own that.
I got to think that we're well over 10% of the flow to the company at this point.
New Fortress Energy, we're not that big in that one.
But we've been adding to it.
And we've been selling a ton of cash secured puts on New Fortress Energy.
So there's some upside from the option market starting to manifest
in that because the most recent puts we sold were in the money. So, you know, because we want it put
to us. We were just trying to get a discount. So I like both of those if you're looking for
something that has started to move. If you think that energy prices probably go up, if you think that maybe there's a catalyst with Iran at some point, and if you understand that the rig counts plunging in oil the last couple of months manifestly mean that the associated natural gas that comes from oil is going to fall.
And that means that natural gas will be pretty firm in pricing.
That makes for a very good outlook for any company that has a high natural gas to oil mix or just is pumping out renewable natural gas or LNG or anything along those lines.
So I like both of those.
I don't think the demand from ai is going away anytime soon
new fortress energy is involved with that directly actually so we'll see those are both uh
you know could chop for a very long time but they could also break out super heavy
and i think it's worth those lotto tickets so i hold them both
all right uh we do have the we have the market closing here snipe i see you got your hand up I think it's worth those lotto tickets, so I hold them both.
All right.
We do have the market closing here.
Snipe, I see you got your hand up.
We're not going to do any GameStop numbers, though.
What else do you want to talk to if there's anything else?
Do we care about GitLab?
I wouldn't say so.
Some people do. We'll read out the numbers after, but we don't need the expectations into it.
I'd be curious on implied moves but besides that we don't need the numbers with GitLab our implied move is $5 31 cents 11.0 what is that I'm
11 11.0 0 and I percent is correct and GameStop is you have the percent give
the previous moves on that one how How that compares? I do.
Previously, we see... Just the percentages, though.
Do you have that? 11.64%
plus 1.74%
plus 21.69%
and minus 4.93%.
Okay, so what?
One out of...
One above, one in line, two below.
So it seems like the option seller is going to win there.
Alright, what was the GameStop implied move? They don't even game stop doesn't even think report like doing
earnings call they don't care about their earnings yeah why should three dollars and five cents or
ten point nineteen percent um nothing too exciting all right well we'll see those numbers we will
cover them i know git lab is a company as sam is saying there that people actually do care about
but i do you know the numbers is a little difficult at the before um especially through spaces but you do i know you
post the the post in there on your timeline was there anything else you were watching today i
know we're getting these numbers out in a couple minutes but um to be honest uh i just really
wanted to cover the earnings i didn't really trade today um it wasn't really the greatest
action for me but you know that's pretty much all I got right now.
Yeah, you're good. Both those names coming out around 4.05 p.m. Eastern, so as you get more information around them, feel free to update us as well.
What's up, Cliff? How you doing?
Hey, guys. What's going on? It's nice to be included today. A lot of stuff going on.
People, sentiment seems to be changing a little bit here. I was actually just taking a look at some of the, oddly enough, I was taking a look at some of the headlines that came out in April and
I posted it. My favorite one that I saw was, the bull market is dead, what investing pros are
saying about a historic two-day stock market crash. And that was after the back-to-back 5% and 6% days.
And just kind of reminiscing that that was only 60 days ago.
And things seem to really have changed.
S&P 500 is up almost 3% near to date.
It's kind of crazy to think of how quickly things are just changing.
So I always like to do that,
especially when we see that heightened volatility.
Same thing kind of happened
when there was that like yen carry trade unwind.
People get really, really riled up
when that stuff happens.
And it's always interesting to me
to take a look at the headlines
that we were seeing not too long ago.
So just a little hobby of mine every once in a while,
especially when markets are covered and sentiment kind of changes.
I mean, it feels like not that long ago,
the fear and greed index hit a, what was it, three?
So always funny to me.
I am seeing the GameStop earnings out,
beat EPS, missed revenue, stock.
My guess is it might not even move.
They did say they purchased 4,710 Bitcoin.
When you don't have a company anymore, you buy Bitcoin.
Cash equivalent, 6.4 billion.
Completed the divestment of its kind of business.
Bought some Bitcoin.
Market did close green.
I don't know if we really called that out.
Not as big of a green day as it feels like with the sentiment, but a green day.
Yeah, so when I was looking at the MAG7, not every single name was participating underneath necessarily.
Like Tesla obviously ended up having a great day
yesterday it was starting out today down six percent close the day up for today another five
six percent day so interesting there microsoft ended the day uh red so one or two of the the
largest name coming in the world coming into the day close the day green and you know it becomes
a little bit uh difficult berkshire hathaway walmart walmart was down 0.1 but not many names down big netflix was down 1.7 but that one's that one's been uh hitting
new 52 week new all-time highs pretty regularly ibm all of a sudden a pretty strong one as well
i had another solid day here up 1.5 and just crossed over 250 billion dollar market cap
for the first time so uh some interesting stuff there
for the ibm but we should be getting those git lab numbers out in a second for you sam
which i know the sam we're talking about the numbers and sam's like no don't not talk to them
godfather we'll come to you in half a second i feel like if we come to you right now we'll end
up having to cut you off um yeah we should get the numbers here right now some more insider sales from uh from palantir
i'm seeing uh sham sankar with uh get labs out it's down nine percent maybe we shouldn't cover
it no i'm kidding uh 131st commons monthly increase. Realty income. O increases dividend again by another.
0.0005.
Gets.
GitLab's not going to show up here.
It's too small.
DTLB.
214 million on revenue.
And then what was EPS? Can't figure out which one of these it is
non-gap 17 cents adjusted versus 15. yeah it looks like double beat yeah or what was the
revenue expectations all right there you go decent moves there i'm sure it's gonna if this
stock's down aggressively i'm sure it's going to, if this stock's down aggressively,
I'm sure it's something in the forward guidance.
It's down about eight.
Is there forward guidance on here?
There is.
They say 226, 227 on revenue next quarter.
940 938 billion for the year million for the year
940, 938 billion for the year, million for the year.
You know just put out a post
Retweet his earlier one. He just responded to
To Omar
Interesting yeah, that is one story that we'll end up having to talk about a little bit later on
but we'll cover that after godfather what's up man how you doing today did we go to you we didn't
yeah i've already spoke i was just going to give you a little bit of uh filler while you're waiting
on the get lab numbers so but uh obviously they came out so um another number that did come out
a few people might care because it's certainly been a big mover uh on earnings of stitch fix
clearly their numbers uh were a little less than expected it's been a big mover on earnings of Stitch Fix. Clearly their numbers were a little less than expected.
It's now getting absolutely hammered.
Used to be a really heavily shorted name.
So you would often see this thing pop on small beats and stuff.
But I just had to look only 10% short these days.
So definitely a winner for that community today.
The filler I was just going to provide was just leaning in a couple of these other comments that were made earlier when people were going through the macro and talking about retail.
And I found a stat on that. The net leverage retail margin has now risen for four straight weeks.
So if it feels like gains are being chased higher and speculative things and you're seeing outperformance and small versus big and heavily shorted names and things like that, there's your evidence of it.
And people were talking about, OK, we're at 6K on S&P.
We've come up some 30 percent from the lows.
We're at all time highs.
You've got all time highs being made in the Microsofts and Broadcoms and so on in the world.
Where do we go from here?
I think it's worth noting that actually the most bought sector in the entire U.S. last week was industrials.
The largest net buying that we've seen there in seven months.
So, you know, people are talking about, well, it's going to take something to take the market higher from here because we're already building in some trade optimism.
We're already starting to see some better than feared macro numbers. We saw it in the NFIB numbers, obviously. And if we see it in the inflation numbers tomorrow, that could
continue to propel things higher. And then, of course, we saw it in really good or good enough
corporate earnings and guidance that didn't look too shabby for
the upcoming quarter. And then you keep getting these things like, you know, TSMC came out,
you know, with their May numbers, again, showing continuation of strong trends. So,
you know, these are all things that are driving the market higher. But then if you look underneath
and you look at like the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, which is sort of a conglomeration of a whole bunch of economic indices, it's actually approaching year to date lows.
So, you know, that's something to be aware of.
Anyway, I'll leave it there if you want to cover some more earnings.
But I think we're pretty much it for earnings.
It's a pretty light day.
There's some other small cap names.
But Dave & Buster's reported they were the double miss.
I actually really do.
Call me crazy.
Dave & Buster's is an enjoyable time.
Did it bad?
I almost bought that stock at five during the pandemic.
How did it do?
Bad. Did really bad, but it's a fun place I get the commercials for what they're
doing too I don't know if those are targeted down five interesting I don't
dad don't look at the stock obviously but yeah I was going to ask Kirk
more about the energy stuff
when we had a chance
we have some other topics to get to as well
but I was curious
Kirk, what was the catalyst
was there a catalyst, was it technical
what was the move in
in some of those energy stocks today
I think for the last few days
it's been building
because the news with regard to Iran has been questionable. I think that there's a potential
for a conflict finally there. But I also know that it's becoming pretty apparent to a lot of people,
know that it's becoming pretty apparent to a lot of people, especially folks that understand
that oil and gas are just cyclical, right? I mean, when they're dirt cheap and everybody hates them,
buy them, you know, hold your breath and then buy them. And when they're super expensive,
everybody says, oh, got to have oil and gas, sell, you know, hold your breath for a little
while and then sell it to them. But we know that the rig count plunged. So the rig count in
the Permian Basin, which is the only place there's been growth in the last couple of years,
everything else has been flat to negative, really plunged. And part of that is due to the technology
of the fracking. I mentioned this a few months ago, the laterals, the sideways movement of the drilling,
those laterals are two to three miles now, right?
It used to be 400 yards and then 800 yards and then a mile.
Well, they're up to pushing three miles in a lot of spots
where the acreage is contiguous.
So a lot of the wells that aren't
getting drilled anymore has to just do with efficiency. But a lot of it has to do with
the small companies. They don't have the ability to meet today's requirements for wastewater,
meet today's requirements for wastewater, which have gotten more stringent even in the Trump
administration. And, you know, they can't do the lateral wells because they just run out of acreage.
So I think what everybody sees right now, and this is what, if you follow Nuttall or Josh Young
or me or any of the oil guys, Dan Dicker,
there's going to be another wave of consolidation.
And this time, it's not going to be the companies getting bought out that do well,
because they're pretty much forced sellers at this point.
The companies that are acquiring acreage right now are going to do really well. So your Permian Resources, Katera, if they acquire Devon Energy, Diamondback, Occidental,
Encana, they're called something else. Encana is now, I forget what they're called now. But
you know, EOG, those companies are going to do really well because they're picking up,
you know, acreage for dirt cheap, and then
they just extend their wells. So there's very little cost. So I think that everybody's just
taking a look at it and saying, okay, it bottomed, and it's time to buy it. And by the way, there are
some catalysts on price for natural gas. There's a potential catalyst in the Middle East for oil.
There's a potential catalyst in the Middle East for oil.
And if the economy stays strong, then obviously we just need a lot more energy.
So I think that's all that's driving it.
There's nothing super exciting.
It's just the mundane bottoming of a cycle turning into an upcycle.
So I'm going to...
I do see...
Wait.
Yeah, I know. Sorry. Yeah, stock talk does not have much time today and
i want to get his thoughts on the uh on the tesla thing so wolfie we will definitely come back to
you we've got well plenty of time to talk but i want to make sure we go over to stock talk
mr talk it would be crazy if it was a false alarm
there you go classic classic uh kirk there was uh an audience let's go over to go over to wolfie
well no we did just cut him off yeah well real fast because i was going to go back to kirk before
we went to wolfie um real fast there what were the two tickers you met or you mentioned there
for uh somebody in the audience.
AMTX and then NFE were the two he said.
Yeah, I'll put them in the chat right now.
Yeah, Ametis and New Fortress Energy.
All right, we'll go over to Wolfie.
And then when Stocktalk gets ready, we'll go to him.
Sure. So just to put color, the rate count is at its lowest point in
five years. It's a lot of what Kirk had to say. It's also like a demand thing. People were prepping
for a recession, might not get it the same way people thought. And then the other aspect that
he said, which was consolidation, another portion for selling is going to be people or companies that were
able to refinance during the interest rate cuts on the back of COVID that may see themselves
in the next, call it 18 months, needing to kick the can again, but not be
able to do so with rates where they are.
So consolidation and just kind of being forced to sell rather than, you know, lose the asset
is another way that you might be able to, might see some of these consolidations happen.
Yeah.
Do I have a second to describe a couple transactions that I just saw?
So there's not a lot of big private leaseholds available anymore. They've almost all been
consolidated. I think there's like two left of any substance. The acreage that's available
are like somebody's ranch, right? They're not gigantic.
And what the oil companies are coming to them and saying is,
hey, you've got a couple legacy wells, but your land could be fracked.
And these guys say, I don't really want you fracking on my land.
The oil company comes back and says, well, we're right next door.
So we can just extend the lateral under your land and pay you a royalty.
Just let us drill
underneath your land. We don't actually have to put anything on top of your land. And they love
that. So they're getting a little extra money. The company's cut pretty sweetheart landman type
deals because they don't have to pay these guys much because they weren't getting anything. So
a little bit of something is better than a lot of nothing. And I think you're going to see all of those deals happen
over the next year or two. And those companies that I mentioned, right, all the big players in
the Midland and in particular the Delaware, they're just going to pick up ranches. Oh yeah,
we can run a line underneath your property and never drop a truck on it. And they get them for cheap.
So they're going to do pretty well just extending their laterals in places they couldn't go before,
and they suck out the extra barrels and the extra natural gas.
That's where that I drink your milkshake meme is going to come in
there you go my milkshake sorry i couldn't i couldn't hold back um no it was it was interesting
oil itself crude was down today but i noticed in the morning xle of the sector was just gapped up
and stayed strong pretty much most of the day it didn't do
much after the gap up but it did gap up it was almost two percent at the open
let's try stock talk one more time yeah yeah can you guys hear me now we do have you
yeah do you have voice try once our voice isolation mode though oh double
check your voice isolation mode on though where do I check that go on the
scroll down menu like on the top right if you like hit that scroll down thing
where like you could turn on airplane mode quickly at the top it should say
like X controls like the very top I have like a microphone thing that says X
controls and if you click that there's an area to do to start to voice
isolation
I'm excited to find it but how well can you hear me we can hear a lot of
background noise we'll go for a minute or two and see how it goes we can also
hear that the cops are after you. Yeah, you're at Fort Worth's finest behind you.
Okay, well, do you guys want to just get my thoughts on Tesla Robotex?
Yeah, go for it.
Go for it.
I want to hear your thoughts.
Yeah, I'm just curious.
Thoughts, anything else you want to share today?
We know you're busy, but that Tesla news seemed pretty big.
Stock up like 6% at the close.
It's even moving higher in after hours right now, too.
Yeah, there was a ridiculous amount of call buying today too in the 650 strikes 700 strikes 800 strikes all
the way up to 950 strikes at the ask um going out to October so some crazy call buying um on that
name today uh I'm not I didn't follow any of that crazy call buying I don't buy calls that far out of the money and or ever on anything personally, but
It was interesting to see
Yeah, look, I know people are going to the skeptics are gonna move goalposts here. That's what's gonna happen
You know a lot of people coming into the robotaxi launch said
Tesla's approach to a pure vision system is impossible
and they will have to employ LIDAR. That was the prevailing criticism. As of today, as far as,
unless Elon is just making insanely false statements, which I doubt he's doing,
there are robotaxis on the road that have been filmed by non Tesla employees
in Austin, driving on Austin's busiest roads. The one that was pictured in the video is a road
called South Congress. I go to Austin all the time. It's two hours away from Dallas. For people
that don't know, South Congress for an autonomous system, you would imagine is a hard street to
navigate. They seem to be navigating it pretty well. If you watch the video, which I reposted, Sawyer reposted it, Elon obviously reposted it.
For those who haven't go seen it, I recommend you go watch it. There's no one in the driver's seat.
Additionally, there is no additional LiDAR systems on the vehicle. And this is the important point.
important point. Okay. There is no supplemental LIDAR on the system. That is crazy. Okay.
That means as Elon said, this is coming from the factory. Okay. Yeah. They repainted it. They put
a RoboTaxi logo on the side, but this is coming from the factory. And if this program launches
without any hiccups in Austin, I don't care about the scale.
If they're doing 50 rides a week flawlessly through the city of Austin in a fully autonomous
system with no LIDAR, in a pure vision system, that changes the industry immediately.
Immediately.
The only other deployed autonomous vehicle in the world is Waymo,
broadly deployed. There are some systems in China that are deployed, but they're largely
teleoperated systems, especially Baidu's system, which is probably the most famous one.
It is fully teleoperated. There is a data center full of people who are on cameras,
teleoperating those vehicles. So not nearly as impressive as the U.S. counterparts,
but the only other U.S. counterpart deploying at scale is Waymo.
For those who have seen a Waymo,
there are sophisticated, expensive LiDAR systems on a Waymo.
Okay?
That not only prohibits their ability to scale,
but it prohibits the attractiveness of the unit economics for an autonomous program.
If this works, and again, this is just day one of us seeing that this is actually happening in Austin.
If this works, even at small scale, the industry changes overnight.
Companies that were investing tons of money in LIDAR as a solution to autonomous technologies
will realize they can get there through vision and AI alone.
That will be an inflection point in the industry if what we saw today goes through without hiccup.
Now, obviously, that is a conditional response. That doesn't mean that this is going to go
flawlessly. I don't know. I don't have a crystal ball. Obviously, if something happens, if an
accident happens or somebody dies, you know, God forbid, that would be catastrophic.
And that would be catastrophic for the stock as well. But if nothing happens and these robo taxis
are driving around the busy streets of Austin, which is a college town, by the way, for people
who haven't been, the University of Texas is there. If you've ever been around the streets
of Austin, there are hundreds of people walking around in massive crowds. If the car can navigate that on streets
like South Congress and can effectively be a vehicle that comes out of a Tesla factory at a
$30,000 to $50,000 price point and can operate autonomously, it is game over. And I mean that.
I don't mean that hyperbolically. If this program works flawlessly, it's game over. Every automaker in the world will want to license this technology if it works at scale. And that's what we're about to find out in the next two months. This is a very, I obviously believe in Elon wholeheartedly and his ability to accomplish impossible things.
But if if if that short video, what we saw in that short video is true, and if Tesla executes without incident over the next two months on that technology, I mean, who else is doing that in the world?
The answer is no one.
No one is doing this on a pure vision system.
No one is doing this with a factory produced car.
Okay, at all.
The Jaguar I-Paces that Waymo got
when they originally got them,
look at the size difference between a Waymo
and a regular I-Pace,
but also look at the size of the cameras that are installed, the size of between a Waymo and a regular I-Pace, but also look at the
size of the cameras that are installed, the size of the LiDAR cameras on the top and on the sides
and on the rear and on the front. Those are costly. You know, Waymo proposes in their next
model, they'll bring those costs down dramatically and bring their total vehicle costs down from
something like 300K to 110K in their new renditions, that's still double, maybe even triple the price
if Tesla can accomplish this with their cheaper models.
Now, if the Vision system works with a Model Y, which is what's being deployed,
then it can scale down, which means if Tesla so chooses to to they could release effectively a 25 or 30 000
fully functioning autonomous vehicle that will break the industry that will break the industry
so that masterstroke remains in elon's hands for now we'll see what happens again the major major
risk here is execution risk from here on but what was that might have been me sorry no you're good
i was actually coming to the end of it anyway but i was saying what was accomplished today
is crazy if we take it at face value um there's no other way to put it you know and like i said
the skeptics will move the goalpost they'll say the first i already heard the first skepticisms
you know when i posted that video i looked at Sawyer's comments too. A bunch of people saying, well,
it's only one city. Waymo's in 10 cities. That is a really intellectually dishonest criticism.
Okay. If you hear anyone saying it's only one city, that is straight up intellectually dishonest
because Waymo is in 10 cities with a lidar installed program
with an average cost like $236,000 per vehicle right so if it works in Austin it will work
elsewhere and at that point it's game over so um I you know I'll reserve my statement till after this program launches and we see the results for two months.
But if that is successful, then Elon will have pulled off another impossible masterstroke in technology.
Just like Starship and just like you did with the Raptor and Falcon programs.
So stock talk, wouldn't the only variable that people, not the only, the main variable people would want to see is how it performs during weather as well?
Yeah, if you operate in Austin, right, for a multi-month period without incident, that concern will be completely overlooked.
completely overlooked. You know, might somebody say, yeah, there's a rainy, rainy, icy region in
the North Atlantic where driving conditions are one of the worst in the world. And I don't know
if Tesla autonomous driving will work there. That's fine. If it works in every major American
city off rip and you can build the cars in existing factories, it is game over. Right.
If it works in Detroit, Austin, New York, Los Angeles, San Diego,
the big cities with relatively moderate weather, right?
It's game over.
90% of the driving in the country occurs in those major metropolitan areas, right?
And the highways in between,
which are a much easier use case to solve for than the cities anyway.
If it works in New York City,
it's going to work on the highways in between
Iowa and wherever.
Right?
And inclement, they could
just turn off inclement weather, right?
They could just say, okay, it's inclement weather, just
they don't drive today.
Yeah, exactly, or that.
Exactly, exactly. If that ends up being
a problem, they could just, just like Uber
sometimes, like Uber Eats sometimes, when it's really stormy outside.
They like, you know, they'll say like, oh, you're no, no one accepted your delivery driver because of, you know, dangerous weather or whatever.
If you've ever been like a really bad thunderstorm wherever you might have seen that alert, you could do the same thing.
Right. You could say, hey, weather conditions are inclement. We advise against driving in this weather.
And in fact, that's not a concession
against the technology, right? That's not saying the technology is incapable. It's saying, hey,
you're still in a vehicle that is attached to the road, right? These aren't flying cars. They're
autonomous cars. If the road's slippery, they're still susceptible to the dangers of that. And so
it's fine for them as a company, like you said, to say, hey, we think the conditions are hazardous right now.
So we are going to pause operations for two hours.
We'll be available later this evening when the storm stops, like, you know, or whatever.
I don't anticipate that being a thing.
But, yeah, it's a cool fail safe if they want to use that.
But, you know, again, the skeptics going into this moment said this was impossible without LiDAR. If Tesla has proven as of this week that it is possible without LiDAR, it is industry changing.
It is literally industry changing.
And again, if it is true what Elon said today, that this car came out of a Tesla factory unmodified,
I'm assuming these things are true.
I'm taking it at face value.
I know there's skeptics out there who never take anything at face value.
You know, I'm a glass half full guy. I'll take things at face value until they're proven wrong.
If what Elon is saying is that these vehicles are unmodified model wise.
In other words, they were taken out of the factory, painted black, spray painted with a cyber, sorry, a robo taxi logo and deployed onto the street autonomously.
That is fucking crazy.
Like that should blow people's minds that they have the confidence to do that.
Right.
Because Elon said they've been testing this for what has been a month now since he said it.
No one's died.
Right.
There have been no like the New York Times times the wall street journal would have been all over
that okay if there was a police report that someone had been killed by one of these tesla
robo taxis that tesla was testing in austin it would have been all over the news it's been a
month okay so something is working like like the technology is clearly doing like something that's getting them
from point A to point B. Maybe they haven't navigated every corner of Austin, but I imagine
that was the goal of testing for a month in the first place, right? You don't test for a month
in a city like that. I mean, it's not a massive, massive city for those that have been to Austin.
You don't test for a month in a city like that. Um you're attempting to cover a pretty good amount of
square mileage. I imagine most of the city. And so, again, this is a completely different approach
than Waymo took. When we used to debate and discuss these things on these spaces,
which we have many times, we talked about Waymo's approach versus Tesla's approach.
And I've explained this many times, but they're fundamentally different approaches.
Waymo wants to geo fence and map cities on a city by city basis and deploy LIDAR capable vehicles into those map zones of coverage incrementally.
That is Waymo's strategy to date.
OK, it has worked well.
They are the widest deployed autonomy program in the world.
Right. But it's expensive and the scale is limited as a result of that, as are the unit economics.
The only way you usurp them in an overnight fashion is to both improve the unit economics and improve the absolute per unit cost,
which, again, if what we're seeing is true, Tesla has effectively done today.
So, yeah, I don't know.
Again, if this is true, I'm going to keep caveating everything with that because I don't want people to be like, hey, this ended up failing a month later.
You were so bullish on it.
If it works, it's over.
It's game over.
What part do you think would be questionable?
I mean, now that we've seen a video with the car driving, a remote operator or something?
Yeah, remote control
would be like that or if it just stops working for some reason yeah the risk at
this point is is a flaw in the technology that's the risk at this point
there's a flaw in the technology you can't tell me if it's a real control
remote control there won't be a crash at some point I've played video games all
my life I'm good exactly always mistake at some point. I've played video games all my life. I'm good. Exactly. There's always a mistake at some point. Exactly. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
Evan, that's actually an excellent point. You know, that's not even like a funny point. That's
an excellent point because teleoperated services will have the same error rate as a human driver,
right? In fact, arguably higher. Okay. So you, if it is a flawless service right in other words there are no incidents
that means it it works okay and you'll have enough you'll have enough samples you know how many
people you know how many investigative reporters in this country who have it out for elon who have
written not only libelous articles, but just extremely opinion slanted
articles on him for years who are salivating at the opportunity to expose this program as
either hazardous or unsafe or it killed somebody or et cetera, et cetera.
They're waiting.
They're waiting.
I promise you hundreds of journalists all over the country are going to be in Austin, probably not only testing it,
but talking to people who have used it, attempting to garner a story. So there'll be plenty of
coverage on this. Okay. But until there is proof that something happened with one of these vehicles,
they have a ton of room for speculation. Investors, I mean, because
you just broke the global transportation system, if this is true. What this means is,
if a basic vision, again, I'm going to keep saying this repeatedly, I don't care if it
annoys people. If this is true, what it means that is that a basic camera-based vision system
can be installed on any moving vehicle on earth and it can operate autonomously.
Like, think about the consequences of that. Every ship, every car, every piece of heavy machinery
can operate autonomously safer than a human can with a fucking regular camera and vision-based
AI system. That is mind-boggling if it is true. Okay? So yeah, like this is not something that
should be understated at all. And I think like even everyone shared the video today,
but I think it was dramatically understated across social media today.
This is an insane accomplishment.
You know, again, the risk remains that over the course of the rollout of this in Austin, something happens.
That is the only and ultimate risk.
So we'll see. But I was mind blown when I saw that today.
Literally mind blown because I did not know they were doing it when they said they were testing it in Austin.
What I thought is they were testing it in remote parts of Austin.
I thought they were just testing it in Austin. Right. I thought I sort of thought they were using that as marketing.
Like, oh, we're already testing it in Austin to get people excited.
The fact that that car was rolling down South Congress, you can see the
crowd of people that it waits for, by the way, when it's turning in the video that was shared today.
There's a crowd of people crossing the street, there's a crowd of people on the other side,
you can see how many people are just on the road. That shocked me. Because that to me is not it's
not just the fact that it's operating in that environment. It is a demonstration of confidence
on behalf of the company to deploy an autonomous vehicle in that environment with It is a demonstration of confidence on behalf of the company to deploy
an autonomous vehicle in that environment with no one in the driver's seat, right? Like, put
yourself in the shoes of Elon. You're a CEO, you have an autonomous system, vision-based system,
the first of its kind in the world, and you think it works. And you've been testing it in Austin
for a while. And then one of your employees says, hey, you want to drop it on the street with thousands of college kids walking around? A bunch of college kids. You want to just
drop it on the street and let it drive autonomously? Yeah. Yeah. I'm confident enough in the technology
to do that. That is quite a declaration. And that's what surprised me about today the most.
It wasn't that they were testing in Austin. We already knew that. It was that they are just testing in the open.
Students walking around that could easily be hit or killed.
The vehicle's not going, the vehicle coming into that turn is not going at like a marginal speed.
It's going at the speed limit.
It's going at like what cars are driving in that area as Teslas autonomously, for those who have ever ridden in one on FSD.
So, yeah, it is a big deal.
That video alone, you see it fluidly slow down and stop for people in that crosswalk.
Yeah, and it's a beautiful stop, too.
Arguably better than a human would stop.
See, that would be my argument. Beautiful stop. it's a beautiful stop, too. Arguably better than a human would stop. See, that would be my argument. Beautiful stop.
It's a beautiful bill.
I mean, if I saw Evan coming at me
and I'm crossing the road
in a crosswalk, I'm probably going to speed up
and get out of the way.
Yeah, it's incredible.
Like I said, I've taken away a moment
before in San Francisco if you need to see if the tech is real. Yeah, it's incredible. Like I said, I've taken away a moment before.
In San Francisco, if you need to see if the tech is real,
now I think it's about proving the safety and scaling it.
So that's clearly where we're at right now.
I think you might have to change your landscape a little bit because there is going to be an accident at some point.
Something is going to go wrong during this point.
You've got to hope it's past the initial stage here
where it could maybe set it back longer.
Any fatality is going to set this back probably more than people think so the longer and more that you can avoid that i think we'll obviously you know do this company the best
but there is going to be mistakes at some point during this it's just a fatality technology
the fatality would be catastrophic even if it's not the vehicle's fault, frankly.
What was that?
Was it Waymo or was it another company?
I don't remember.
The lady who got hit by another car and then got sent under the car and the Waymo kept going.
Weird stuff happens.
Didn't she sue Waymo?
I don't remember exactly.
I remember that story, but I don't remember how it ended up.
I don't either i
but i the story waymo had a lot of drama uh for a couple days as well i think she was suing waymo
and then the story kind of came out like hey here's what happened like another car hit her
she got hit like right under the waymo and then it kept going so not perfect but i mean
i don't know i mean the big the biggest inhibitors to the adoption of new technology are A, complacency.
That's the biggest one.
But B is fear.
And usually when you're at the precipice of like, you know, crossing that crossing into that.
You know, pole position, if you will, in a new industry where you're replacing an existing
technology and you're doing something that people have never seen the worst
thing you can run into early in that stage is like inducement of fear or you
know how however it may come sometimes it comes from the media sometimes it
comes from the product itself sometimes it comes from an incident but when
people get scared of a new
emerging technology they are quick to back away from it like it would push back the regulatory
effort in my opinion by years if somebody's killed by one of these things so yes that is the most
that is the biggest risk hands down oh yeah because it were having accidents though you know because there's
cars on a road and 99 of the drivers 99.9 of the drivers are human so humans suck at driving
and you know tens of what's the u.s road fatality rate annually it's some crazy number right um i don't even want to know what the
number is i don't want to say it but it's a crazy number and you know humans suck at driving they're
irresponsible drivers they do it intoxicated at times they do it distracted very often they do it
irresponsibly at high higher than necessary speeds very often. You know, people are stupid.
I wouldn't put past someone just running into one of these cars
just to get out of Elon.
Yeah, exactly.
I would not be surprised by that either.
I would not be surprised by that either.
And I wouldn't be surprised by somebody getting into one of them
and saying, like, it did something terrifying
and they were so scared when they got out of the car.
You know, those kind of reports are going to come out, okay?
And that's not what I'm talking about when I'm talking about executional failure. To me, executional failure
here is the car kills someone and the car is at fault. That to me is executional failure. But
if somebody dies and it's an accident with an autonomous vehicle and the autonomous vehicle is not at fault, I still think that will
hurt the regulatory effort because, you know, the courts are going to, in my view, view that
as a risk of the technology and, you know, a product of like, you know, the idea that the
technology is not human and can't respond like a human and, you know,
or react instinctively like a human. I feel like those are the arguments that would be made if
someone's killed. So will someone eventually as autonomous vehicles spread more and more die in
an accident with an autonomous vehicle? Yes, it will happen, you know, but it's going to take the courage of the public and the media to, whenever that does happen, analyze the situation soberly and really try to determine, you know, who was at fault.
Not like an insurance company would, but to really determine if, you know, the technology itself was the cause of the fatality. Because in many of these instances
that will happen, where human drivers crash into autonomous cars, I imagine in almost all of them,
the human driver will be at fault. That would be my speculation. And I think that's actually a
better case to argue that had the human driver not been driving at all, the accident wouldn't have occurred in the first place.
And so I think that's how the argument should be framed when these accidents inevitably do happen.
Because, again, I'm speculating here, but when they do happen, I'm almost certain it'll be the fault of the human more than the machine.
You know, machines are just better at us, better than us at decision making.
We are emotional creatures.
All of us are emotional.
We have our biases.
We have our angers, our fears, our desires.
You just all have them.
None of you can escape it.
None of you are holier than thou.
None of you are, you know, even Buddhist monks have desires and fears.
And, okay, everyone does.
And as a product of that, you are a flawed decision maker and operator of machinery.
End of story.
Are you better than a giraffe?
Yeah.
Are you better than a chimpanzee?
Yeah, you're much better than those counterparts.
But now we have another counterpart, and that counterpart is machine learned systems.
And if we can prove that they are better than us, then humans will have to make that concession
and grow up and take the mature point of view in that scenario to say, you know what, this is safer.
You know what? This is safer.
Elon actually tweeted about 20 minutes ago or so that Tesla AI slash autopilot could probably beat the best human around a track already.
And eventually it really won't be a contest at all. Human reflexes cannot match machines.
Yep. Our reflexes can't match machines they never get exhausted
they never get tired emotional they don't get emotional they don't do any of these things
they just drive and they just yeah wait till wait till i pull out my emp you know
i got a question for you about like um the concerns you had there in terms of like the the public
perception do you think like the there's a bigger negative if something happens on the road in public
perception or like what happens in terms of liability from there like you said you brought
up like the insurance question do you think it like sparks a bigger issue of like well who was
liable and therefore like because we can't determine whether or not the human would or wouldn't have, as it's a machine, made that decision, then like, where does liability fall?
Like, do you think that actually in the long run has a more drastic impact than public perception does?
Yeah. OK. So, yes, I agree. I think legal liability does have a much more dramatic impact in the long term than public perception does.
have a much more dramatic impact in the long term than public perception does. But obviously,
I think in the short term, public perception matters a lot more to the narrative. And as a
result of that, probably to the short term price of the stock. But I will say Sean Duffy, the
Department of Transportation chief, who was actually recommended by Elon to Trump. Part of
the reason Elon recommended him was back in 2015, 2016, when he was,
I forgot what his role was back then. I think he was a Congress person or something.
I forgot. You can go look it up. But back in 2015, 2016, he talked about the idea of creating
insurance regulations for the operation of autonomous vehicles for exactly the purpose
that you're talking about. Yeah. That's my question is like, eventually there has to be some model around it, right?
Yeah, that will come. And I think part of the reason why the DOT is, I mean, the DOT is working
on that as we speak. That's like one of their top priorities this year is creating federal AV
regulations. So yeah, I imagine along with those federal AV regulations, there'll be some general legal guidelines around insurance liability.
That would be probably one of the first things they address, frankly speaking, because that's something that needs to be figured out.
So I again, I don't know for sure, but I imagine when the DOT does release their federal AV guidelines, there will be stipulations about how it should be handled
in the insurance sphere. So we'll find out. I agree. And I just think that I worry that
if something happens in that front before regulation around it gets passed, it may
influence the regulation greater than public perception would. Yes, I completely agree.
By the way, a little headline here. Again, whatever. But Besson says he has to go back.
We had two days of productive talks.
Have to go back to DC to testify.
Greer and Lutnik will continue as needed.
So talks might continue tomorrow.
Maybe a question mark.
We'll see.
But that's the latest there.
You guys continue.
Sorry.
Nope.
I don't know if you found the voice isolation mode by the way but it's
been pretty clear that whole time for it there was also another headline between the US and Mexico
that when trade talks might be there to get rid of some of those 50% tariffs we shall see they
were waiting for someone to they were really waiting for Sawyer in a post this video I don't
know if you saw like 75 Tesla employees, Elon Musk, the Tesla account.
Every single buddy in the space retweeted that one video, which was pretty crazy.
But they were definitely waiting for it.
And so there were a lot of headlines that this week, Thursday was the day they were going to kind of open it up to the public.
I don't know if they put out no information on it.
We'll see.
I think that we might no information on it. We'll see. I think that's the thing that...
We might look back on this and be like,
oh, is this just them saying, hey, okay,
there's something happening here, even though we don't open up.
Yeah, what were you saying?
That's the thing we still...
There's more that we don't know than what we do know.
And we had this discussion on the Tesla space earlier today
that even your your, your high
profile people that would get, you know, the, the special invites to, you know, be testers
in this type of, of scenario, uh, they still have no, no knowledge of anything planned
yet.
So, I mean, even though we are super excited, I'm super excited seeing that video. I watched it
probably a hundred times, but there's still nothing like as far as launch, launch date,
like how much is it going to, you know, it looked like there was a trail car behind it. We were
speculating around that. There was a trail car monitoring it from the back, which makes sense.
I think that that makes perfect sense, honestly, the way they're rolling this out. But we still don't have any details around what a launch and further
testing looks like what public launch looks like what a date looks like.
I question if there would be a legality around those people discussing it publicly if they did
know or not as well. I think that would be under wraps, right?
or not as well i think that would be under wraps right well right so even if they had um
you know a hey this june 20th just whatever arbitrary date uh we're gonna invite you in
whatever um yeah like an nda whatever even but at some point that would you know it doesn't leak
maybe it leaks eventually it it leaks. Eventually.
It still leaks more times than not.
But even if it didn't, there would still be some type of announcement from Elon or Tesla at some point.
And we don't have that yet.
I think my only point is we don't have any further details other than we saw a video of a Tesla in the wild today.
of a Tesla in the wild today.
My read from Tesla is they just don't tell them.
Yeah, I think they're planning it
and they're probably just going to call a bunch of people
and bring them in and do something in the next few weeks.
But it makes sense for them to slow roll this.
As much as I want to see it just you know flip a switch and start going it makes way more sense
to have you know 10 cars with constant surveillance with constant data collecting that way they can
get those early software updates put together and pushed out quickly they have a trail car to to
monitor it the entire time like that makes the most sense to me.
Yeah.
Putting it,
if you're going to roll this out,
putting a date on it just sets a,
an easy way to like disappoint.
Right.
Like,
cause like there's no date it needs to be ready by,
but putting that date makes it a date that you missed by if you don't get it
ready.
Right.
Like,
so I think it also just sets you up for like a,
well,
did they get it by in time?
they delayed.
You know what I mean?
If you kind of put a date out there.
Well, it wouldn't that be full circle after all the criticism of how many times the date got pushed back at the end?
They just don't even have a date. They just start going.
Yeah, that's kind of like what I'm getting at. I think if you're thinking about, you know, the past, I guess, hiccups, you're like, well, we always kind of like we failed to deliver in time because we tried to aggressively push the schedule.
If we just don't say anything in surprise, that's probably a win, right?
All right, separate question for you, Tesla owners.
Does Tesla have their own insurance?
Don't they have their own insurance department or something?
Yes.
Wolfie, I know.
Is it through Tesla?
Yes. So they have their own underwriting they raised insurance uh rates on tesla across the board nationally i think it
was last fall off the top of my head um it didn't matter if you and and it's part it's not necessarily them. Their insurance rates were impacted by regulation that no longer allows insurance companies to collect certain types of data.
So they couldn't group you into an insurance rate based off of gender, age, etc.
In most cases.
And so their insurance premiums went up across the board
because of that. But I don't think it was Tesla specific. They do have options in the vehicle to
have your driving monitored, and then you can get insurance discounts based off of
achieving certain scores, you know, as long as you have the FSD enabled.
as long as you have the FSD enabled.
Now, is your insurance a different rate
if you have FSD enabled or not?
I've never activated it,
but basically you have a score rank
between zero to 100.
And then if you achieve, you there's like certain things right so if
you're not driving after a certain hour right you're not driving before a certain hour if
you're not driving more than a certain amount of miles per day there's like all these different
variables but you achieve a certain score based on every trip and it just monitors everything from
how well you stopped you know how often you stopped, you know, how often you use your
blinker, how consistent you are on, um, on speed limit. And, uh, based on what I remember,
if you have FSD active, it will inherently lower your insurance rate because of,
you know, having to fit in those guidelines anyways. Right. So, but, but the, so the scoring is dynamic.
What you're pricing is not necessarily dynamically changed.
Like you'd be,
you would be alerted of that,
right?
Yeah.
So it tells you on a drive by drive basis.
I remember,
if I remember correctly,
how,
you know,
how impact,
how impactful that drive was,
for example.
So I,
I'm not sure.
I mean,
I've done it.
I did it the first.
Like if you make a massive fuck up,
like it's more impactful than like your like average break.
Yeah, so I'll give you an example.
I did it for like two drives.
So if you, there's two levers.
There's one lever on the left, one lever on the right.
If you pull one lever, it does one thing.
You pull the other one, it will be your blinker. So if you pull one lever it does one thing you pull the other one it
will be your blinker so if you pull the wrong lever lever for example uh while you're driving it'll give you it'll flash a red alarm it'll override whatever but it will like
seriously impact whatever that driving score was and it'll like you'll have to take multiple trips offset it
for example um i haven't done it i've never i've never done it uh since like i did it one drive
maybe even since then i've never done it so um it's not something that i worry about the the
more interesting thing for me was that they're uh the more interesting interesting thing for me will be if their insurance premiums go up just because of having to insure all these vehicles gets grouped in.
And if there's any insurance risk from just, you know, people being assholes.
Right. So I don't know.
On the latter one, my insurance policy has been locked in since all this Musk hate started to kind of go into a fervor.
But we'll see.
So that, yeah, so that's what I was asking.
It does lock in, even though your score dynamically.
It's the same thing.
Six months, six months.
You can impact it negatively, right?
So if you do, as far as I understand, if you just start driving really negatively, it can impact on a month-to-month basis.
But as far as I understand, for me, I was locked into an insurance rate of like $105.
And then once the national thing went up, I think it went up like 60% or 70% for me.
But yeah, I don't know what it's like now.
I don't know if it's changed since people started hating on Musk and
vandalizing vehicles in the first quarter.
I don't know because I've been locked in.
So I'll let you know if things change.
Yeah, yeah, please do.
I also, I just realized how impactful that is of letting someone else drive
your vehicle if they're not insured in it as well, right?
And I guess that's like a positive outcome in terms of the underwriting
but like your score could be decreased right because it doesn't know it's you driving if
like someone else is driving the vehicle yeah that was the example that i was giving like
there's two levers i guess i left that part out well when i let um when i let my my when i let
someone drive my vehicle we pulled the wrong wrong lever. It flashed red.
My score was impacted right away.
Yeah, that's one thing.
But the more interesting thing for me was just how dynamic just their pricing was from things that had no impact on me whatsoever.
So, like, it was just something that they had to do.
Just rates had to change, I guess.
And it just kind of flipped no notice.
But it was material.
But I don't know if that was just a national thing,
because again, I'm not due for a rate change
in the middle of this.
Tesla's being vandalized, blowing up, all that stuff.
So I don't know if that's going to change.
And then the second part was if that is like an actuary risk across the board,
is there any actuary risk just across the board because they have FSD vehicles
that have robotaxis or anything like that?
I have no idea.
That's just something to think about.
Yeah, if you could keep us posted, like if there's any changes that they make
to your rate based on like the broad FSD capabilities, just like, you know what I mean? Like that would be across the board changes. That'd be interesting to know.
you good there you good there buddy you look sounds like you're down bad somewhere uh
and we're deep in the trenches but we're in a good place here um i don't think we have a
hard cut off today correct no no hard cut off that's why I was just gonna see if you had anything that we miss out there was like three or four tops
area hit on and then we just we got into it yeah no one or two other stories
Starbucks rolling out Microsoft Microsoft Azure open AI assisted for
baristas so baristas coming up to the AI age interesting to see IBM had a
quantum announcement today I have no idea what's happening to quantum.
I listened. I was watching
Amit's channel last night and he had
Martin Scurley and someone else
talking about quantum. I have no idea
what anything in that conversation was talking
about. So no thoughts there.
There's a lot of stories today around
meta too. And then
stuff around scale AI.
They might buy 49% of scale AI. Alexander Wang might come in
and lead a new unit within Meta. Mark Zuckerberg seems pretty focused on artificial general
intelligence, which I don't know if that was something we had considered if Meta was really
going into that direction. I know Meta AI, open source models, but yeah, I thought it was a very interesting day
for Meta as well.
A lot of good announcements there.
And I don't know if StockTalk
or any others have thoughts on that one,
but that may close the day back over $700.
I have a secondary to that.
The scale AI thing was originally rumored at 10 billion.
The valuation jumped to 15. And then AI thing was originally rumored at $10 billion. The valuation jumped to $15.
And then secondarily,
not meta,
but Snapchat is
relaunching lightweight
glasses. And they said that they're
going to have deep integrations with OpenAI,
Gemini, on Gemini
Google Cloud.
And yeah, so the whole thing
is back on. Everybody's trying to get in the
glasses game. Everybody's trying to get into the AI vision game. The scale deal is actually
quite interesting too. You're right. It's 14.9, I think. And it's buying out all previous investors
and equity grants from employees as well, like that would be done in secondaries.
They're going to buy all of it so they can acquire 49%.
Yeah, they want to own it all and not greater than 49% to avoid anything regulatory.
Yeah. I'm just watching Trump over here speak at Fort Bragg.
I think we're at a pretty good spot.
Yeah, I was posting a tweet there.
Microsoft declared a dividend. That was unchanged from his previous one. I'm good to close a pretty good spot. I was posting a tweet there. Microsoft declared a dividend.
That was unchanged from its previous one.
I'm good to close it out, though.
Definitely make sure you are following the speakers up here.
We appreciate everyone for joining in.
This was a really interesting day.
We had a lot of stuff going on from Tesla to Amazon had some news this morning.
Meta with a lot of news. And Starbucks and Microsoft and etc.
We get to do it all again tomorrow.
If you guys enjoy this, make sure you're following the host.
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They gave it right back to us. They know we're
the best show on Space. Exactly.
They were like, alright, they're not.
100% they were like, yeah,
the people need this. We actually
have talked with the X team and they told us we are
the only thing keeping Space. No, I'm kidding.
That's actually not true. They wouldn't talk to us.
But tell us, let us know
what you think of the logo. If you have any
thoughts on it.
We made a change. Thought it was time.
We're excited about it. We appreciate all
of you guys. I
like the change. It's modern. The one
thing I would say is it looks like
SOS. That's the only
it's not negative, but that's the
only thing. No, I know. That's kind of what's avoiding
us from making it more like an O, you know?
Yeah. I thought it was a salt shaker until I look. That's kind of what's avoiding us from making it more like an O, you know? Yeah.
I thought it was a salt shaker
until I looked closer.
We kind of call it stocks.
We call it SOS to short it.
Shortens.
That's funny.
Kind of is what it is.
No, but it's good.
I like it.
It's a lot more modern,
a lot more clean.
More energy, more passion.
How often do we have to update the banner up there?
Because it has all the current prices
of a lot of Mag 7 socks.
Never.
It's done.
I look back in a year and it's like Tesla 307
current price is $650.
A couple of, I guess,
I don't know, we were trying to wrap it up.
Did we talk markets at all?
No, we didn't know how much time you had for us today.
Yeah, I've been, for those that don't know, I was looking at horses today.
I've just really been obsessed with horses lately.
I kind of want to get a horse, so I've been looking at horses today.
Is this like a horse to race or something?
What kind of horse?
I mean, dude.
You're going to get more info.
We don't have a million questions on me yet, guys.
You can't just slip that in and go past this road.
Well, because I'm looking at getting a ranch, and I want horses.
One does not have a ranch without a horse.
Sorry, a ranch without a horse.
Well, I want two dogs.
I already have one.
I want another dog.
I want another lab.
And then I want two horses and just a ranch and just chill.
You can't put those in an apartment?
No, unfortunately not.
I mean, I love my apartment right now.
But I don't know.
I just want a horse.
I don't know why I want a horse.
I don't know.
It's just been a fixation.
But anyway.
How long has this fixation been a thing?
Just curious.
Is this like a new one? Or is this like always been a thing?
No, I've been thinking about it for years.
I've been thinking about it for years.
Are you going to treat it in your house?
Okay, what color of ours? Let's start there.
I don't know. You guys are putting a lot of pressure on me right now.
I'm still thinking about it.
I'm still browsing. I'm still browsing.
You know, I'm thinking.
Do you have a name picked out?
No, no. You guys are...
We're going to put you through the ring. You guys are taking the football all the way down the field.
Well, you also said two dogs.
Did you say two dogs?
We've only heard one.
I only have one dog, but I want another dog.
Gotcha.
What are you going to name that dog?
I don't know.
Leo's brother.
I'm just kidding.
I don't know.
He's going to name that one DiCaprio.
I'm not a planner, man. I'm a catalyst trader. You guys know this He's going to name that one DiCaprio. I'm not a planner, man.
I'm a catalyst trader.
You guys know this.
You know, I just go with the flow.
So what's the catalyst for land?
What's the catalyst for land?
I don't know.
Land's just a good thing to own.
Yeah, there was some interesting stuff in the markets today, I think, that I noticed.
You know, a couple of stocks, I think, stood out.
Obviously, Tesla, nice rebound since the Trump-Elon stuff softened up.
But I think both the hydrogen trade and the psychedelic trade have really interesting setups across the board.
Psychedelic names are, you know, three to 500 million-ish market caps.
They're not big stocks, but they're all setting up. Compass, Mind Medicine, MNMD, CMPS. is it oh yeah uh cybn cmps mnmd atai those are the three i have on my list i think all those
technical setups look pretty clean um mnmd cmbs cmps sorry cybn all sitting around that 200 day
spot with some nice relative strength the daily charts over the last couple of weeks.
It looks like some money's flowing to those names.
Now, I don't know if that means a catalyst is coming.
CMPS, Compass, I was talking Logical about this earlier today,
he has a position in that name too.
They have data coming up this month.
I think ATAI had some positive data announcement this morning.
Stock jumped up and
faded with uh some of the more speculative names in the market later in the day but
it's an interesting area to watch for volume i think uh you know stock talk real quick i think
atai actually owns 20 of compass as well oh there you go there you go that that could be uh
where the connection was but yeah anyway that's another another name on there
um the ones i have positions in are m&md and compass um i have pretty good cushion on my m&md
now position we got in around 7 15 that stock today was pushing eight bucks so i have a nice
cushion there to kind of be a little bit more flexible with that one but cmps i opened today
um to sort of add to that psychedelic basket i'm playing
these close to the chest you know these aren't the kind of trades where i'm like they become
core positions for me it's not at all how i treat these thematic uh trades at all outside of nuclear
because i believe in that in the long term and centrist energy is a core position for me but
um for these names most thematic trades i don't treat these as like multi-month or multi-year holds.
I'm really just looking for potentially parabolic moves on these types of setups.
And they don't always happen.
Sometimes, you know, they fade below the spots I was looking at them and I just move on.
And a lot of times they do work.
And, you know, they're big performance accelerators for me during the year uh for my
trading so anyway you know mnmd been sitting above stacked moving averages or was around that 670
spot and since then has drifted up here to eight bucks uh but 921 pointing up 100 day and 200 day
stacked 50 day climbing up below them you'll probably get a golden cross on this name in the next two weeks if price action
holds up here.
You know, this 50-day sitting at 650, 200-day sitting at 675, you'll probably get an impending
golden cross on that chart on the daily as well.
Weekly is the same way, stacked up.
All the weekly moving averages stacked, 921 crossing the 50-week moving average.
And they're basically overlapped on price. Like 50-week moving average is sitting at $6.93,
inclining 21 EMAs also exactly at $6.93 to the penny.
So they're literally stacked on top of each other.
There's just a tremendous amount of demand for this name
in that $7 area.
And I think that's why it's held up so well.
On the monthly, there is overhead resistance up at 1033, you have the 100 month moving average emerging right there. It's only
been active for four months. The stock's only been public for 104 months, but newly emerging
100 and moving average overhead at 1033, you probably meet some resistance there, but that's a big move from eight.
And, you know, above that, 12 bucks really is your next spot
where you'd encounter some resistance.
So it has the chance for a nice move.
I think all the setups are sort of explosive.
You know, Compass has a similar setup.
A couple of weeks ago, it didn't.
You know, it's obviously still below the 200-day moving average.
That's the big distinction between an MNMD.
So I do prefer
the mnmd setup but um this thing can make a move up to 650 660 pretty easily which is the 100 in
moving average so those are the two that i like there are other psychedelic names too there's
like a bunch of names you know some are 500 million some most are in most psychedelic names
are falling in that three to 800 million cap category. So
they're much riskier. They are small caps. Keep that in mind. Yada, yada, yada, caveat emptor,
you know, high risk. And same thing goes to the hydrogen theme, but those names are also setting
up, you know, bloom energy is the name I own in that space. I posted a chart this weekend,
very high short interest. I like the way the stock's holding up. Weekly looks actually gorgeous. You just got a golden cross in the
weekly chart on this thing. When was this? Three weeks ago, golden cross in the weekly on Bloom
Energy. Stock's 25% short. JP Morgan likes it. RBC likes it. They says the deal flow are going
to continue. Electricity theme is pretty big.
Hydrogen names haven't run.
I don't know.
I try to anticipate themes sometimes before they pop up.
I'd say most of the money I make is in themes that are already active.
I just pick the best names in the theme.
And, you know, or not always, but I try to pick the best names in the theme and capitalize
it on that way.
But sometimes I like to try to position for a theme that I think is coming.
That's thematically relevant to other stuff that's been running.
You know,
like with the psychedelic theme,
you've seen a lot of these healthcare AI sort of names start running lately.
You know,
I even took some lotto calls on Tempest AI today,
some 70 calls for the end of the week,
which I rarely do.
I rarely take weekly calls,
but that theme isn't picking
up. So I'm like, okay, and where's the next logical step? Maybe they run the psychedelics.
There's a lot of government support for that sector still to, uh, RFK looks like he's wielding
his power a little more fluidly now as health and human secretary. That's probably good for,
for psychedelics. So thematically, I think that works. And then, you know, the, the hydrogen
names, like hydrogen names,
like I mentioned, fits into the electricity theme. Those names have been monster performers
all year. The data center names, the electricity names, you know, on and on. So that I feel like
is the next logical theme as well. And a lot of times the way these kick off is a really,
really, really speculative small cap runner. Like for those that have been watching Plug,
really speculative small cap runner. Like for those that have been watching Plug, which is like
which is like a shit co in the hydrogen space, but it's a popular trading name because it's
very often high short interest and it moves smoothly. That name's up like 60% in like a week.
And so usually when you see these like little shit co's in the sector start to like blow up
and explode. And on top of that, you have traditional leadership stocks in the sector,
the quote-unquote quality names.
There aren't always quality names in these sectors.
In these kind of sectors, they're sort of all shitcos,
but the general leadership names,
if those are setting up technically while the shitcos are running,
it generally gives you a cue.
So I'm looking at those two areas now.
Like I said, I'm positioning both of them with a handful of names.
I think collectively those represent about, what, 3, 7, maybe like 10% of the port.
I have a cushion on three out of four positions.
So, yeah, that's kind of the way I'm dealing with it.
My stops are the 200-day on almost all those positions.
For CMPS, which is below the 200- i'm just using uh the trailing 21 ema
as a stop um so yeah anyway i just wanted to update you guys on that because i know i don't
talk about markets earlier just talked about the tesla thing real real quick on plug that thing
started to take off after their cfo bought 650 000 shares and then shortly thereafter they they got
like really aggressive call buying on the back
of it. Stocks trading like a buck, call it less than that. I think it was like 80 cents. But
that one, like anybody's like a degenerate, that one with the price point basically gives you
just like a long-term call lotto for like $1.30. That's just the way I'd say it.
for like $1.30.
That's just the way I'd say it.
Yeah, I mean, Plug has a lot of financial problems,
which is kind of why I stay away from it.
But it's a great trading stock.
Yeah, that's what I mean.
I just mean like, yeah, it's a dollar.
Fantastic trading stock.
I don't disagree at all.
You lose a dollar.
If you want to gamble, yeah, for sure.
I don't disagree with that at all.
Asymmetric long-term call is the way i'd say it yeah i i think if you are looking for like you want you do want hydrogen
exposure in the electricity generation sense from a company that has real contracts on the table
the only real public pure play is bloom energy it's not the greatest company in the world they
don't have the best balance sheet in the world. It's not like a high, super high quality investment, but it is a good trading vehicle when it does
run. It is a high short interest vehicle. I don't remember. I mean, Bloom Energy to me is one
ticker that has never been bad to me. So every time I see it setting up, I always go into it.
You know, last year was actually one of my best names. And we traded that massive explosion where
it doubled on like two candles. We got into it before that move. And it was literally one of
my best trades of the year. So yeah, when I see it setting up, I like to hit this name. It's been
good to me. You know, that's not really a data driven approach. I'll be honest, you know, as a
trader, what you should do is have some sort of data data set that tells you your best tickers.
I'm talking about for stock picking traders, not for like futures traders or index traders.
If you're a stock picking trader, you should have some sort of data set that tells you objectively what your best tickers are.
I don't necessarily have that.
I'm more of like a mental note sort of guy.
I do the same thing with my stop losses.
Like I don't computerize my stop losses.
I'm a mental stop guy. But you have more flexibility to do that with individual stocks than you do with futures trading or index trading.
But anyway, I tried to – God, I lost my train of thought.
What was I talking about?
What did I go into this with?
You said that you just took a trade.
It wasn't fundamental basically
um no i was trying to say something else fuck
you've been out there in the we were talking about blue we were talking oh yeah yeah yeah
so i try to take mental notes of like which stocks are like when I go to them work well for me consistently, because to me, that's sort of a testament to the idea that that the way that stock trades fits my style of trading.
Right. Like there are certain stocks that are really responsive to catalysts. Right. And as a catalyst and thematic trader, I try to focus on those stocks.
Like a lot of times when there's a theme active, I just have a go-to name. You know, like when the
psychedelic theme is active, I just go to M&MD. When the hydrogen theme is active, I go to Bloom
Energy. Like they're just these go-to stocks I have because they work for me very consistently.
And in the same way, there are other stocks that I've mentally noted that I can't trade well.
The number one stock on my no trade list is Boeing.
Because every time I trade it, I just get burned.
I thought you were going to say Apple.
Apple, though.
Dude, honestly, Apple, if I tried to short it the times that I wanted to short it,
I actually probably would have done well trading that.
But I didn't.
I didn't have the balls to short it.
Post-WWDC is not the balls to short it so um post wwdc is not i should have i should have hit it intraday for a short after that garbage event because that was
a terrible i did i saw i saw liquid glass and shorted it yeah that was just an ass event but
anyway um yeah so i i there's stocks that have not been good to me that i avoid also and sometimes at
there's stocks that have not been good to me that I avoid also.
And sometimes at,
at a cost,
right.
There's sometimes great setups that I would normally hit on another stock.
And I'm like,
you know what?
I fucking hate that stock.
That stock always fakes me out or,
you know,
nice on good news.
And like,
you know,
I'm not going to trade it.
I'm okay with that.
You know,
I will,
I know I'm not going to own every stock that ever goes up.
And I think for new traders, that's a big like sort of hurdle you have to overcome.
You know, I have like a lot of new traders on my server who like, you know, I have a big enough portfolio to where I can spread my my positions over 20 positions.
Right. People have a couple thousand dollars in their account.
They want to own everything I own. And I try to tell them, like, you can't do, you probably can't do that with
the size of account that you have. And that's okay. But you have to figure out the stocks that
you do want to own. Even when your account, even if your account was theoretically, let's say,
you know, a billion dollars, which none of us have a billion dollars, but even if your account was
that big, you still have a limited amount of buying power.
Right.
The bigger your account, the bigger your position sizes have to be to be meaningful, which means no matter how much money you have, you can only own so much stuff.
Even if you're margined to the max, you could be margined 300 percent in and, you know, leveraged to the tilt with options.
You can still only own so much. Still,
there's a finite number of stocks you can own. And once you accept that as a trader,
it'll make position management, FOMO, it'll make these things a lot easier. Because you'll realize,
well, I have to forego an opportunity cost elsewhere to have chased whatever train I missed
that's pissing me off. Right. So, yeah, are there
sometimes where I'm sitting around and I see a stock that I was looking at last week and it's
like ripping it. Does that annoy me still after a decade plus of trading? Yeah, it still annoys me.
But do I let it interfere with my stock picking or my trade management? No. You know, I'll see it and be like,
ah, shit, I should have hit that last week. I knew it. And it's sort of just like a funny,
you know, oh shit moment. And then I go back to my positions and I'm like, okay,
what do I need to trim today? What can I add back on? Okay, what's getting extended?
You go back to my regular, you know, boring process right after that. But
you have to get over that hump. You have to get over the hump and saying like, hey, there's just some stocks that aren't for me. Either because I didn't
notice them at the right time or because they're not in an industry that I understand or because
it's not an opportunity that I feel convicted about. I see people sell great performing stocks
all the time when they're up five or 6% on the position.
They intended it to be a swing trade,
but they have no idea what the company does
and they see some green and they're like,
whatever, I'm going to take it.
And the stock proceeds to double or triple from there.
And they're like, what the hell?
Like, I didn't know it was that great of a company.
Well, yeah, of course you didn't know
it was that great of a company
because you just bought it
because someone else mentioned it, right?
Or you bought it because you saw it on Twitter feed
or on a commercial or whatever. And you were like, oh, that looks like a great company. I'm going to buy it. And you just
bought it to him. It went up a little bit and you sold it and missed out on what could have been a
great high conviction investment opportunity with an hour of research, right? So yeah, just be
willing to accept that you're not going to trade everything. You're not going to own everything.
You're not going to get every 100% mover. But if you focus on the stuff, you know, well,
you focus on the stocks that are good to you consistently, you know, uh, you flower your,
whatever that quote is, you flower your water, your flowers, not your weeds or whatever. Um,
that's a great quote. Um, so yeah, just, just, just try to be understanding of that and don't
stretch yourself.
You know, another thing I see new traders do is they start dipping into their margin
to buy stocks that they see moving without them because they don't want to miss out.
You know, I use margin, but I'm also like a pro trader.
I know what I'm doing.
I've been doing this for a long time.
I outperform consistently.
I can know how to manage margin in a way where I'm not going to get caught with my pants down and have to
liquidate my account or get margin called. New traders do not know how to do that. You know,
if you're leveraged on your Robinhood account, 130% and you're in 40% of your portfolios and
options, two really red days in the market,
and you can get margin called, maybe even one. And once you understand that and understand what
the risks of that are, which means getting shaken out of existing positions, being a forced seller,
you never want to be a forced seller in markets, ever, ever, ever. If there's one rule you can
take home and put in your pocket, take that rule. Never let yourself become a forced seller. Sell when you want to sell.
Sell, always be a willing seller. If you feel like a position is getting too big in your portfolio
and you look at it every day the market is running and you worry with fear about your net worth,
it's time to sell some shares. It's not worth that headache where
you're up 678% on a position. It's now accounting for 23% of your net worth. And
every morning you check if the market's up or down half a percent or else your net worth is
going to fluctuate because of your margin on the position by plus or minus 10% on a given day.
Maybe you should recalculate
the risk you're taking there, not just the monetary risk, but the psychological risk.
Don't wake up every day stressed out, dude. Like that's not worth, worth holding a position at all.
You know, and if you're somebody that operates that way, you should think about that. You know,
and for me, that's why I use waiting as a guide for me.
I use waiting as a guide to sell, not targets.
People are like, oh, I have a target on this stock.
A lot of people trade like that.
If you're a short-term trader, that makes sense.
You have targets to hit on the chart.
You mapped it out.
Great.
I don't trade with targets.
I don't swing trade with targets.
I swing trades what I think are quality charts with quality catalysts, and I let them work.
As long as they don't break down on me, I let them work.
Okay, wants to consolidate for a few weeks above the 21 EMA?
Sure, I'll let it do it.
Let it do that, you know?
So that's what I do.
And a lot of traders who don't do that, who are target-based traders, will be like,
oh, you know, this is the target, that's the target.
That's fine.
But if you're going to hold a position for a longer period of time and you want to see truly transformative returns where this you
can watch the stock triple and quadruple sitting in your portfolio right that's
where the real money is made the day trading stuff is great I've made some
money day trading I've made some money swing trading you know you can make some
money doing these things but the real money is made by holding
a stock and letting it work. You know, letting it work. You don't have to invest for 25 years.
You don't even invest for five years. You frankly don't even have to invest for two or three years.
But sometimes holding a stock for six plus months is what it takes to see that stock,
the story really pan out how you thought it was going
to, right? For the market to discover what you were seeing when the stock was, you know,
much, much cheaper. A lot of times people see, oh, people start getting interested. First analyst
commentary comes out on the thing and they're like, well, it's getting found now. I'm out.
And they go look at it seven months later and the stock's like 200% higher. You know, usually that's the moment you
don't want to sell. You know, when you see your highest volume ever candles on the monthly or
the weekly or the daily chart, people are like, oh, now it's getting crowded. Now it's getting
discovered. No, no, no. That's when the real boys are coming to play.
Okay. That's when it goes from being a retail stock that gets pumped and dumped to
becoming a real stock.
You know, Bloom Energy, which I talked about earlier,
is a great example of this actually.
You know, you go back to the move it made last year.
I don't know if it was the highest daily volume.
Kendall was one of the highest ever. No, it was the highest daily volume candle. It was one of the highest ever.
No, it was the highest ever by far.
If you zoom out on that chart,
zoom out what?
You zoom out five years on the daily.
Look at that daily candle from November of last year compared to everything
else.
It's like five times the size of the next nearest candle. Okay. Though that's what makes explosive moves, right? That stock
went from, I don't know what it went to on that candle, but it went insane on that catalyst.
Yeah. Like over the course of that week, it went from nine bucks to 2870. Okay. And, you know,
consolidated and then obviously pulled back with the markets earlier this year
and is now building back up.
But those are the types of candles
that take it from being shit co,
you, me and my brother trade it
and a bunch of people on Twitter trade it
to institutions trade it.
That's what highest volume ever candles do.
So yeah, at this point I'm rambling,
but there's a lot of things you can take note of
throughout your trading and
investing career little points of experience that you'll realize will inform you on how to stay
involved with stocks when you should stay involved instead of just scalping them or selling them um
you know at a whim and i did a tweet on this earlier this morning too but you the biggest
thing you can do to improve your performance, the single biggest skill you can learn.
If I had to pick one skill to learn for a new trader,
I would say go back, pick five stocks that you used to own,
that you sold, five stocks.
Go through the charts.
If they went lower after you sold them,
note what the trend broke down looked like.
Okay?
When stocks go up, they go up in an uptrend.
Okay?
So go back to a stock you sold and say, hmm, okay, it was in an uptrend when I owned it.
Then I sold here.
And then after I sold, it went down a lot.
Why did it go down?
Go study the technical structure of that chart.
Look what happened. Was there a 21 EMA crossing back below the 200? What happened technically to cause the breakdown? And what kept the stock in the breakdown? You know, did it sell below the 21 EMA all the way down? Did that act as a roof or resistance all the way down through the breakdown?
a roof or resistance all the way down through the breakdown. These are little things you can
take notes on. Same thing goes for the upside. Find a stock that you sold that after you sold
went up and look at the chart and say, what happened after I sold it? Why did I sell too
early? You should ask yourself. I'm not saying you're going to get everything right and perfect
in markets. That's not the point of this exercise.
The point of the exercise is to better recognize patterns.
And the most important point of it is to be able to differentiate pullbacks from breakdowns.
That's what makes great swing traders.
If you want to have crazy year-to-date returns, okay, and really outperform the market, which is possible on a stock picking basis, that's what you have to do.
You have to know that when the red days come, because they will always come, you're never, ever, ever going to have a year where the market's green every day, okay?
Point blank.
That's never, ever going to happen, okay?
So you know the red days are going to come. What makes great traders is what you do during the red days,
not the green days. Do you get shaken out of your stocks on red days? If you do,
there's a good chance that you are underperforming the market. Okay. That's like the number one
killer of performance is, Hey, I'm in this stock that I've owned
for months or for years or for weeks.
And there's the stock after going up 30 or 40% had two or three red days and I sold it,
you know, into a low volume sell into the daily 21 EMA.
Forget the weekly or monthly charge,
which is where you actually should be looking
for the longer term picture, okay?
But that happens all the time.
You know, I see it all the time.
Like even Nebius Group,
which is a high conviction swing,
I put into our group,
put it in at 2392 on May 2nd, okay?
The stock proceeded to go up like 20% the week
after we bought it,
then another 20% the week after we bought it, then another
the 20% the week after that. And I had questions in our chat, like, why are you not selling any
shares? And I was like, because I think this thing goes a lot higher and it's a core position for me.
That was my answer. And there were people now that it's 50 who were like, oh, you know, I sold
too early. And I was like, where did you sell? You know, and I asked one of them and he showed
me the point, told me the point of the chart where he sold and there's a low volume pullback right low volume
pullback into the 9 ema not even the 20 ema that was just the you know to me the utmost point right
some people use the five if you want to get a little even closer to the price but the 90 may
low volume pullback on that ema got shaken out on it. After having an amazing cost basis, having a ton of cushion, he took profits already
in the position.
He had so much flexibility.
Trade was profitable.
Stock was holding up.
Technical structure was continuing to be great.
You know, I wasn't selling a share.
And he told me, he was like, I'm super frustrated because I didn't know that that was just a
pullback.
I thought it was over.
it was over. You know, I thought, oh, that was the top because the stock was red for two days.
You know, I thought, oh, that was the top because the stock was red for two days.
And that small adjustment of saying, hey, this is not the stock breaking down. This is not the
trend breaking down. This is a pullback within the trend. Once you can skillfully recognize that
your performance will explode. That is one thing you can teach yourself. One single thing. Go this
weekend and do it. Everybody in the fucking audience, go.
If you don't know how to do that, go this weekend and do it.
Find five stocks you sold.
Find ones that went higher after you sold them.
Find ones that went lower after you sold them and study what happened to the price.
And you will make those mistakes far less.
And you will see way more of these crazy gainers where you're like, oh my God, dude, I held
this stock for three years and I'm up 300% on shares.
That's a gratifying feeling.
And that's where you make real money.
And so do that.
Do that.
If you don't know how to do that this weekend, go do that.
That's your homework assignment from StockDoc.
If you don't want to do it, cool.
I guess you ain't money.
I'm going to stick with the Nebius example.
I'm going to stick with the Nebius example.
There's also like, sometimes you buy something and you get, you know, you get, you buy it and you say, I'm going to give it, let's say, 15% or 20%, whatever stop that I have in place.
Then you get a headline that just like comes out of nowhere.
And you get a gap down or a sell or something like that.
Some rumor kind of tests your gut before the move actually happens.
And it doesn't hit your stop.
And if you just get shaken out, you get fucked.
So I bought Nebbius on April 24th.
It gapped down on April 30th. It gapped down like 10% almost on April 24th. It gapped down on April 30th.
It gapped down like 10% almost on April 30th.
It wasn't outside of my stop, so I didn't stop on it.
But I could easily see how people would stop on it there.
And then there was another moment of that, I think, on June 2nd
when they raised capital.
And they needed to raise capital, right? I think on June 2nd, when they raised capital.
And they needed to raise capital, right?
Like to fund some of their projects, they needed to raise capital.
And they raised it at a premium too at like 51 a share.
Whatever they did it at. But the stock went from like $40 back to $35 in two days.
And then that morning, it was a weekend.
And that morning, there was a headline
and it gapped down some more.
And if you didn't expect that they were going to
try to grow the business by raising some sort of cash,
you would have sold it, right?
But effectively, take a look at where it stops.
Basically, you can use 21 or 20, doesn't matter.
Stopped at a 20-day, got bid, and then you got the move.
So there were two moments, just from my example,
there were two moments where had I just not known
why I was in something or why I wanted to partake in something,
I would have stopped out.
And then there's other ways to look at it too.
Like if you had
sold it early, for example, and it continued to run, you know, you had an opportunity again on
that one day to get in against the 20 day or against the 200 day if you wanted to give it
more slack, but there's other ways to do it. And then the concept of owning a ton of positions.
Me personally, I try not to own a ton of positions.
It's not because I can't do it.
It's just too much.
For me, it's too much mental bandwidth to try to manage that.
People who are good at doing that, great.
I'm happy for you.
Whatever works for you, great.
But if you're new, I find that, or like newer, I find that most people will struggle with that, especially early on when they
have even less capital to work with than they want, particularly because every time you have
to make another 50-50 decision, it lowers your probability of making the right decision.
So if the market opens, let's say the market across the board opens red,
you have 15 positions.
You've got to go through 15 cases,
you know, you should be at least,
15 cases of did anything change?
If you, you know, if you don't get up early enough,
you might not give yourself enough time,
now get 15 real-time decisions.
The odds of you making the right decision on all 15
is not in your favor, right?
So generally speaking, until you get your bearings, and I'm just throwing the number 15 out here,
you'd be 20, it could be whatever, right? But generally speaking, you want to kind of get,
everybody's numbers different. For me, once I get around 10 to 12, that's where I try to be like,
all right, let me dial it back. That's just for me. For me personally, I like to keep it between five and seven. That's just me. But my trading style
is a little bit more concentrated. I'm not trying to manage it or anything like that. I'm trying to
be in and out. So it depends on what type of person you are. And then if you're limited with
experience on when a headline for capital raise might happen and actually hurt the stock versus when it can help the stock.
Things that you want to buy into versus things you want to sell out of having more decisions to make typically is not going to work in your favor.
So you want to kind of like ramp yourself up into being able to juggle more balls for lack of a better term.
Pause. yourself up into being able to juggle more balls for lack of a better term pause yeah position i mean the amount of positions you want to run at a given time i also agree by the way i'm more comfortable in the 10 to 10 to 12 range generally but you know i expand my position
count when i feel like there's
widespread opportunity. And by widespread opportunity, I don't necessarily mean
like opportunity in the broader market. I just mean that there's a lot of active themes.
Because, you know, I always describe myself as a catalyst trader, but really what I am is a
catalyst and theme trader. You know. The stocks that I like to pick
in the baskets that I pick usually have a theme in the background that has bigger workings going
on. Something is happening in the macro economy or on an industry basis that makes me interested
in the industry itself. And then I go find a stock within that industry that has not
only a good chart, but a good catalyst. That's really, if I had to put my stock picking process
in one sentence, that's my stock picking process. Find a hot, durable theme and find a leading stock
in that theme that has a promising chart and promising individual catalyst. By individual
catalyst, I mean a company-specific
catalyst. Once I've checked those boxes, I'd go long. At a minimum with a 3% to 4% position,
that's usually my base position sizing. Higher conviction, I go 7% to 10%.
And that's the way I roll. And I usually, on almost every position that I have that I think is going to move quickly,
which anytime I have a high short interest position, that counts. If I have a position
that has a springboard setup, springboard setup as in all of the moving averages are stacked on top
of each other, that also counts. If I see a position with short-term options flow, that also
counts. So there's any number of qualifiers here, but those are some examples. If one of those qualifiers are met,
then I also add options leverage to the equity position. I run generally an 85 to 15 equity to
options split. That can change. I think right now my book is around 87 to 13, somewhere in that area.
But I generally run that 85 to 15 split.
It can go as low as 90 to 10.
It can go as high as 80 to 20 at times when the market is really, really ripping.
There were times in 2023 where I had an 80 to 20.
2024, most of it I spend in that 85 to 15 range. But the purpose of those
options positions is to amplify my buying power, which I've talked about many times before,
give me more exposure than I can afford. And that allows me to get these huge performance boosts
off of just a few stocks, even though I own so many stocks, you know, like with Nebius,
you know, in a book of when I first opened Nebius, I think my book was 15 spots. So Nebius was the
16th. I don't remember exactly. It was a month ago. But when I opened it, you know, I had people
asking me like, oh, OK, well, you're saying this high conviction position, but you're only sizing
it at seven to 10 percent of the portfolio. You know, why wouldn't you size it more? And my answer to that was because
there's enough options leverage on the position that if I'm right in the way I think I'm going
to be right, it'll be a massive performance booster. And that's exactly what happened.
I had the $40 calls and I bought those when the stock was 23. The stock went to 50 and those went
up like 8% to 900%. And so the gain on, you know, nine, eight to 900%. And so that the gain on those
contracts alone, even though the dollar value in my equity position was materially higher,
15 times higher, more capital in the equity position, I made more money on the second leg
of the run on the options than the equity. On the first leg of the run, I made more money in the
equity, right? But on the second leg of the run, I made more money on the options than the equity. On the first leg of the run, I made more money on the equity, right? But on the second leg of the run,
I made more money on the options than the equity.
And then I was able to sell those options
with the June 20th expiry options
and lock a massive profit on the position
and still keep the shares, right?
So I don't have to get FOMO of the shares.
My position in those shares is still full size, right?
And the cost basis is half the current price.
So now I can build. This stock comes back down into the 30s, I'll build into it, right? And so
that gives me that flexibility by adding on my higher conviction positions, not necessarily
higher conviction, it's the wrong way to phrase it, on the positions I think are going to move
imminently. Adding that options leverage gives me the ability to take off profits, secure profits
early into the trade,
recycle buying power and continue to benefit from the upside of the core equity position.
So, yeah, again, I'm sort of just trying to give you guys insights in my process and the very, very specific ways that I trade.
But you don't have to do things exactly like me.
I'm just explaining to you guys why I do things the way I do them, why I balance my equity to options ratio the way I do. Some people aren't comfortable with options. If you're not, don't use
them at all. Please do not use them at all if you're not comfortable with them. If you just do
nothing but throw away money on options, then don't use them. I actually know fantastic traders
personally, friends of mine, some of who have been trading for much longer than me, who are very profitable traders on the common stock side and are very unprofitable traders
on the option side. So it's no shame to say, I don't know how to use options effectively.
They just don't work for me. It doesn't suit my risks tolerance. I get scared when the options go down 30%.
Like, I'll just say this flat out.
If you're putting enough capital into an options position that if it goes down 30% on a given day, you are going to freak out.
You should never buy options.
Period.
End of story.
Because any contract, even a seven-month expiry contract on a bad enough day can go down 30%, 40%.
Even if the IV is under 60%,
even if the expiration is above six months,
even if it's close to the money,
on a really bad day for the stock,
stock's down 10%, 12%,
that contract can get crushed.
So no matter how conservative you think the contract is,
it can get crushed.
So if you're not comfortable with that,
either in sizing or in risk psychology, do not trade options at all.
Not even a little bit.
But if you are OK with that risk and you understand the principle of absolute dollar risk, which is how I think of money.
When I think of capital, I think of it in terms of the absolute dollars allocated, because that's really what matters. At the end of the day, the percentage
on the paper is not what matters. It's about the dollars that you are making on the position.
And so my options complements to my equity cores are always sized accordingly. You know, if the options complement on the equity
core to a position drops to zero, my weighting is going to go from like 5% to like 4.3, 4.4%.
That does not hurt the portfolio. But if it works, and the option goes up 900%,
But if it works and the option goes up 900%, now that went from being a, you know, a potential
rise in weighting from five to maybe eight or nine percent to a rise in weighting from
five to 12, 13 percent.
And it ends up being a six percent carry to the entire portfolio.
That's serious upside.
Right.
So I size the options in conscious of that risk, right?
Hey, look, if the equity works over a six-month basis,
but the three-month expiry options expire worthless,
it can still be a winning trade for me
based on the way that you size it in absolute dollar cost terms.
Requires a little bit of math.
Once you get experience, you won't need to do the math.
You'll have an instinctive feel of how the options should be sized.
But if you're new to doing this, if you're new to building sophisticated positions that
have equity components and options components on them, which is the way that high level traders trade.
If you're wanting to start getting used to that
and learning how to do that,
you need to at first learn how to do the math.
Learn how to price risk,
hedge, how to hedge if necessary an existing position.
You know, look at these options, calculators,
they can help you. I don't
generally look at those things anymore. Because again, I've been doing this for long enough that
it's sort of instinctual to me about how to size. But if you don't know how to do that,
you should learn how to do that. And do the math and be like, okay, if I have, you know, $5,000
in 5% out of the money call options expiring four months out and the stock goes to $75,
what will be the total dollar return on those options? Versus I have $150,000 in equity,
the stock goes up 22% over that period. What is my total return on equity? Compare that total
absolute dollar return on equity with the total absolute dollar return on the options, and that will help you on how to size it.
Okay.
And then you can say, okay, you know, if the stock hits my 50 target, I will take off half
the options, cover my risk on the options.
The options are now free leverage on the position, take off 10% of the shares.
That 10% sale in shares now secures profit on the equity side as well.
These are the types of things that you need to do if you want to be a really sophisticated trader.
And I know that might be like years away for some of you or some of you might just be starting.
That's okay. Don't rush into sophisticated, like high-level trading. You're just going to get
run over if you rush into it. So start with equity, learn how to trade with equity effectively, learn how to scale in and
out of positions effectively, learn how to identify pullbacks from breakdowns, master
that first.
Master basic support resistance common stock trading first before you do anything and learn
the basics of reading a chart, how to read volume, how to read price, moving averages.
Once you've done those things, then you can graduate to saying, okay, how do I amplify leverage on
individual positions? How do I learn the math of how to do that appropriately? And work from there,
you know? And if it doesn't work for you, great, go back to just trading common stock. There's
fucking nothing wrong with that. That's what most people do and most people should do, frankly.
And I mentioned this before, but I've made much more money trading common stock than I ever have trading options.
I'm profitable on both, but I've made much more in absolute dollar terms on trading commons over
my career than I have with options. So that's why the majority of my portfolio stays in common stock. But if you know how to use them, it can be an excellent accentuator to a position.
And they're a smart way to use leverage if you know how to use them.
If you're just blindly buying lottery tickets with 200% implied volatility, you're not going to make it.
going to make it. You're not going to be consistently profitable doing that. I don't
You're not going to be consistently profitable doing that.
care if one time you bought a 200% IV call on GME and you made half a million dollars and you think
you're a genius and you want to keep doing it over and over again, you're just going to burn money
90% of the time. Anytime you're buying a contract with over 80% implied volatility, you are taking
enormous risk, period. And there are going to be moments where it's appropriate to do if you're a skilled
trader. There are going to be moments of news where it's appropriate to do. There's going to
be moments on high momentum, high short interest stocks, which never have cheap IV. There's going
to be moments where it's appropriate to do that. But there are going to be many more moments where
it's not appropriate to on stocks that are trading above an 80 percent iv on those out of the money contracts so just learn these lessons as you go you know i try to go on these rants when
we have spare time to teach you guys some lessons i've learned along the way and these specific
things that i do so i hope that's helpful but um you know just try to build these things over time
yourself and the only way to do is experience you got to get in the trenches you got to try things
out and don't be scared and if are scared, then lower the amount of capital
you're using. You know, if you're getting scared out of learning things and trading and investing
because you're putting thousands of dollars in and every time the stock moves around a little
bit, you get terrified. OK, that's OK. That's normal for new traders. So don't be embarrassed by that. But
a good way to start solving it is to just dramatically size down.
You know, if you can, I don't know, if you're out, somebody out there who's sports bets,
let's say, and you spend a couple hundred bucks on your sports bets. Okay. Instead of doing that,
spend a couple hundred bucks trying to learn how to trade. You're not gonna be able to take big
position sizes, but you can learn the principles of trading with a couple hundred dollars.
You can buy 10 shares of something. You're not going to make life-changing money on 10 shares
of anything, but you can learn the principles of scaling in and out of a position, the principles
of pullbacks versus breakdowns. You can learn that. So learn it.
You know, capital is no excuse.
It's no excuse at all.
You know, I have friends who tell me that capital is.
Yeah, go for it.
So I trade a lot of options.
So I'm going to start there.
Most of the money is not made trying to bet like,
hey, this stock's going to go here if I buy this out of money.
Most of the money that you'll make on an option comes from either selling those types of options or from having in the money or at the money farther out strikes and catching a run. For example, Tesla in the last couple of sessions, both ways, went from 330 to 280 in a straight line or 270 in a straight line, whatever it hit, went from 280 to where it's at
now, basically in a straight line. So just most of the money that you could have made, obviously,
in an extreme case, you buy way out of the money. Those are exogenous. You're not going to get those often, right? That's one. The second
part is when you're doing equity, most people look at it on a nominal or a number basis.
Look at it in terms of percentages, because that's the logic that's going to scale, right?
So if you get accustomed to using 10% of your money on an individual trade,
because a lot of times people
will say, I have $500, I'm going to put $250 here. Well, that $250 is half your money. It's not $250,
it's half the money that you're going to play with. So looking at things on a percent basis,
and obviously if you're trading very, very small amounts on a relative basis, it could be a lot of money to you.
I'm not I'm not undermining that.
But if you're trading like, let's say, two thousand dollars, your position sizing generally, unless you're just genuinely trying to learn how to do something and you're going to hold yourself accountable and buy partial shares.
Generally speaking, your position sizing is going to be bigger than when you start having, you know, six, seven, eight figures, whatever. So those are the main things that I'd say.
Get accustomed to thinking in percent terms, not dollar terms, not share terms, percent terms.
Because if you have a 10% position with a 30% stop, that's 3% of your account.
If you have a 10% position and you're saying, I'm going to give it a 50% stop, that's 5% of your account.
And 5% of your account might be $100.
5% of your account might be $1,000.
Depends on the size of the account that you're trading.
But that'll get you to work out the kinks as you grow.
Because that logic can scale, right?
Having a 10% position at a $10,000 account, that logic can scale.
Once you have a $100,000 account, that 10% position is bigger, but it's still 10%.
So the swings might look bigger, but you'll be used to having this size,
that kind of sizing.
I think that that part could go hand in hand with what you were just saying,
Stockton.
Yeah. Yeah, of course. Yeah.
And I never want people to think about like, you know,
trading and investing in, in like dream terms you know which is what i think really happened
in like since the robinette era is like everyone wants to make a million bucks trading like every
21 year old kid it's like oh i can make a million bucks my robinette account you know like they see
these screenshots um that's not how you make a million bucks it's not you know as a guy who has made a couple million bucks i can tell you that's not how you make a million bucks. It's not, you know, as a guy who has made a couple
million bucks, I can tell you that's not how you make a million bucks. You know, how you make,
how you make a million bucks is by have building and learning over time, over years and understanding
the markets, understanding where your niche is in the markets and exploiting that to the best of
your ability. That's it. It's the whole game. Everyone has a different niche and a different
style. And Wolfie has a dramatically different style than me.
And I have a dramatically different style than Emp.
And Emp has a dramatically different style than Kirk.
And Logical is a dramatically different style than me.
And it's just, that's how it is.
You're going to find something that you probably understand.
Maybe a couple of industries that you understand well.
You're going to find some stocks that you probably understand well.
Maybe you work in an industry in software or something and you have some insight or maybe you're a former,
you know, or an active doctor or nurse and you have some healthcare insight. I don't know. Who
knows? Who knows? Everyone has a unique edge of knowledge in their life. And you'll find a way
to exploit it if you're smart and you're attentive and you work your ass off, you'll find a way to exploit it.
You will.
And there was a great post yesterday.
Ruth Capital posted one of my buddies on Twitter.
He's a great account.
He just made this great post yesterday.
And he's like, look, we dramatize markets a lot.
We do it on this show.
I love this show.
We're here every day.
And I helped start the show with Evan and Wolf when we co-founded it years ago.
But shows like this even, right?
We're here to not dramatize markets, but to give you guys really granular insights on markets, right?
To give you guys day-to-day insights on markets.
What's happening today?
What's happening tomorrow?
But if you zoom out markets are easy
you know if you really zoom out you know and like in the long run it's really hard to not
make money in markets yeah that's why i emphasize so much not getting scared out of stuff you know
back during that pullback in February and April, you know,
I wasn't buying the dip, but I wasn't selling my stocks, you know, and you look at the performance
chart, which I share on Twitter, my performance chart, you can like see kind of how my year went.
That's why I share the full chart. You can see during the deep seek sell off, I wasn't hedged,
right? During the deep seek sell off, I didn't see the deep seek sell-off I wasn't hedged right during the deep
seeks off I didn't see the deep seek self coming I didn't see the deep seek
moment coming right so I wasn't properly hedged for it and you can see I pinned
it at the top but you can see the drop-off at the start of that year or
sorry at after the deep seek moment you see the drop-off in my portfolio where I
went for being up I think I was up like 20 something percent of my portfolio at
start a year to fly almost flat on the year and then even slightly negative
on the year. I felt like a minus four or 5% drawdown, I think at the worst of it. But if you
look at March on that chart and you look at April on that chart, and I pinned the chart above,
you could see I was hedged. You can see how the
portfolio performance, it actually jumped in late March as the market continued to trend down.
Because after the deep seek sell-off, what did I do? I managed risk because my stocks where
I had my points of risk had fallen below those points of risk. So what did I do? I took them off the table. I took options exposure off the table. Yeah, I took a hit.
But if I didn't take that exposure off the table and hedge when I did, I would have seen a 20 or
30% drawdown on the portfolio. And instead, I saw a single digit drawdown. So what I'm trying to say is, is that the way you operate your portfolio does magnify your year to year returns.
But even without operation over the course of multiple years, you'll generally do pretty well.
You know, for those who want to maximize their returns, smart active management can help you do that.
And smart active management of leverage can help you do that.
But for those who just want to win in the markets and you want to do it the easiest way possible, don't trade at all.
You know, if you want to win in markets and just not have to worry about CPI and all the shit that we talk about all the time,
fucking, you know, at the topics that we're on this basis every day, if you don't want to worry about those things,
just don't trade at all and just invest.
And in 20 years, you'll do just fine.
You're not going to have crazy multi-hundred percent returns over, you know, on a year-to-year basis, but you're going to have
great returns on a 20-year basis. So choose who you want to be, you know? And I'm not saying
there's anything wrong with trading. I fucking spend my whole life trading. Like, I can't
knock people for doing it. I love it. I love markets. I love waking up in the morning and
seeing the pre-market tickers moving and seeing my news feed filling up.
I just love the feeling of it.
It's like ecstasy for me in the mornings.
I love it.
If you love it like that and active management is something that you want to do to superperform, then hell yeah.
Come join our Discord and do it with me.
That's what we do in there if you like active management.
But you don't have to do that
is my point you don't have to you know you can do very very well and make a lot of money
by just sitting on some great stocks over years you know there's stocks i've told this is really
funny because i get reminded of this all the time because over the course of trading like my friends
my whole life have just like always asked me like, Hey, what should I buy?
What should I invest? Like, you know, my real life friends who aren't exposed to markets,
who do other things, I have friends in real estate and in marketing and in tech. And they'll
message me sometimes be like, Hey man, what stock should I buy? You know, and of the course of the
last 10 years, I've given out tons of recommendations and all the time, all the time, I'll have a friend
talk to me who I haven't talked to in a long time. And he'll message me and be like, bro,
remember when you told me about this stock? And sometimes I won't even remember telling them
about it. And the stock's like a thousand percent higher, you know, or, you know, he's like, oh,
you told me about this eight years ago and I 10 X my money on her. You told me about this four
years ago and I six X my money on it. I'm told me about this four years ago and I 6x my money on it.
And I'm like, holy shit, dude.
Like, I remember making 20% on that trade.
You know?
So I come across this myself all the time.
And I just kind of laugh and chuckle to myself.
Like, you know, it's the stock market requires nothing but patience and a stomach.
That's it.
That's it. If you have patience and a stomach. That's it. That's it.
If you have patience and a stomach, you win already.
Before it even starts.
If you can sit through a decade of recessions and fucking COVIDs and whatever,
and just hold quality companies that have moats and niches,
and that you understand well you could
make out like a bandit with almost no effort at all you know on the contrary you can do what i do
and get barely any sleep and try to super perform but you know for me like i said i love doing it
so that's why i do it i genuinely would rather do nothing else in the world than trade markets. So that's why I do
it. But if you don't fall into that boat, don't fucking do it. Just go enjoy your life and just
invest and, you know, do whatever the hell you want to do. That's what most people should do.
I always say this, but yeah, it's a good place to, that's a good final note to leave it with, I think. I got to go to the gym.
There you have it.
Follow Stock Talk and you can buy a horse just from investing in the market.
All right, great show today.
Great talk.
Glad we had Stock Talk join us from out in the boondocks a little bit.
I didn't get the full live cattle update.
Maybe we'll save that for tomorrow.
That's charts looking bullish at all time highs though.
Appreciate everyone that tuned in and make sure you follow this host account, of course,
for all of our daily shows that we do.
3 p.m. Eastern each and every day.
We go for at least two hours,
sometimes three, sometimes nine,
like we did a couple months ago.
But either way, appreciate that.
Follow the speakers.
Thanks, everyone, for tuning in.
We'll be back.
What is today?
We'll be back tomorrow.
CPI tomorrow.
Wow.
Yeah, that's going to be fun.
All right.
CPI tomorrow.
Maybe China news at some point.
Keep your eyes peeled.
New all-time high soon.
I don't know.
We'll see all
right give me the china god candle yeah do we get that i mean i don't know they we the smartest guy
in the room can you imagine like they come over the meeting they're like dude we love each other
dude we're dropping all terrorists oh my god crazy yeah well that would send us well beyond new all
time high but we're only a percent
away. G and Trump come out and do
a photo shoot for Vogue together.
Can you
imagine? I
don't have any confidence in that at all, because
we left Lugnut over there, and
Vestin's leaving, but
we'll see what happens. Maybe we get some
good news. It feels
like the market's just ready to explode with good news or or sprint out the door one of the two the way
it's consolidated we'll see what happens all right have a good evening everyone Thank you.
