Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: April 28, 2025 Duration: 2:00:27Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic market landscape, discussions highlight the resilience of major tech stocks and the potential for growth amidst economic uncertainties. Key earnings reports and macroeconomic data are set to influence market sentiment, with a focus on upcoming earnings from major players like Apple and Meta, as well as critical economic indicators that could shape investor strategies.
Full Transcription
Thank you. So a good afternoon everyone welcome in to stocks on spaces our daily show Monday through Thursday
right here at power hour each and every day a lot of things coming up this week um we've pulled back
slightly red in the market taking a look around here. Not too bad, though. Pulled back, and now we're bouncing back here, back towards breakeven a little bit. QQQ down $2, about 0.44%.
Spies down $1.50. That's about a quarter of a percent. And IWM basically at breakeven here.
The Dow Jones just went slightly green on the day. And here we are. We're pushing as I'm looking at my charts here.
Yeah, a couple of big names. NVIDIA obviously down today, still down 3%. Has not particularly
acted too well today. But we have a green Apple, we have a green Meta, and a green Netflix right
now. Basically breakeven on Microsoft, Broadcom. And yeah, that's where we're at. Working on getting all
of our panelists up here to get started. Evan, I can't tell if you're on stage or not.
Shows requested and co-hosted at the same time. We'll try that again for Evan.
Testing Evan, testing one two
it shows his listener yeah he just he just got rugged well wolfie let's go to you first today
then what are your uh what are you seeing out there in the market what have you been trading
what are your thoughts around this uh i mean we went up four days in a row, so kind of makes sense to pull back a little today. Yeah, so I said on Thursday when you guys had this thing that I, you know, generally when people, when the market's down, people are like, you know, markets don't bottom on a Friday.
And then when you have a rally, an aggressive rally, generally that aggressive rally doesn't stall on a Friday.
rally an aggressive rally generally that aggressive rally doesn't stall on a friday
um and i you know was just kind of like looking for a place to sell some into the weekend
i'd write and i kind of said i'd rather sell when i can not when i have to um you know so for the
most part i haven't i just kind of traded that mantra um you know i had a little bit of nvidia left over from last week so whatever
i had left over after my costs were off the table is now basically no profit on that on the leftover
stuff so that's a it's not fun um i saw you know not so when we talked about tesla in the earnings space you know there were levels that were given to basically the
um the above bumper zones were 220 on the downside give or take five points and then on the upside
293 give or take a couple points as well yeah today we got to that 293 level and it failed
perfectly um it failed right into that 200 day as well, if you look at it.
And now there's like a little bit of a tug of war.
So into that trend, into that 293 failure, kind of took some to the downside.
And that was pretty much it for me on the day.
Some things that I'm watching, obviously a lot of the earnings that are coming up this week,
the percent commentary has kind of been aggressive today aggressive meaning like freak in terms of frequency not like necessarily the words and then he's got a scheduled press
uh thing tomorrow so it's kind of curious uh either they have something in the in the pike
like whether it be india or whether it be japan
um or it's kind of like a damage control thing potentially we'll see but that's kind of uh where
my head's at on the back of um you know volatility also last week when we had these conversations
said to look for you know this 25 level 25 level potentially, um, and then below that, like
23, 22 at 25 level, give or take, um, kind of got bid. Um, and I just, you know, I'd
like to see some sort of quote unquote fail on the VIX, uh, and just kind of push it back to that $22 to $20 range and just kind of get that
last bit out of the way. Outside of that, you know, just looking at specific names, specific
setups. I said last week that I bought some Hertz on the back of the minor selling that it had.
I'm still in it.
So it's got a downtrend.
Basically, it tagged that downtrend almost to the penny two or three times last week.
I still look for those idiosyncratic moves in the market and these stocks that are small enough that they don't really impact the indices but then you know
they move wide enough or greatly enough to kind of give you a payout so it's one i'm still watching
another one in the same kind of ballpark category is rivian uh rivian is pressing into a you know
pretty substantive downtrend from 2022 and it's broken out above its 200 day pretty aggressively it's
kind of like poking its head above this downtrend it's put this head above that downtrend
three times previously and it kind of like overshoots and then fails so i want to see if
that's what happens especially want to see if that's what happens or not because they have
earnings next tuesday so it'd be pretty interesting to see it kind of like rally into that, especially since Tesla's earnings were so,
you know, negative from a car sales perspective. And then in the same breath, like GM has earnings.
So we'll see if it's like one of those things where it's an industry thing or if it was like a Tesla thing.
And I kind of think that if it was, quote unquote, just a Tesla thing, some of these other names will kind of get front ran ahead of the reports.
So kind of paying attention to Rivian there.
really main headline I kind of watched or I'm kind of curious about the timing of is the J.P.
Morgan, Jamie Dimon headline that says that he's cautioned that a recession is the best case
scenario. I'm not sure if I'm misquoting it, but some version of that. And it's kind of interesting, the timing, kind of interesting, you know, how that's put out there now.
And it's also kind of interesting because we're just now starting to get like our legs under us, quote unquote, for the market.
And I just think that I think I'm not alone in saying this.
I think Options Mike was kind of laying out similar levels where, um,
basically we were looking for a bounce and you want that bounce.
I think his bounce is like 5,700, but you can go from 56 to 5,800.
Um, you know, I'm quoting his, cause he was more specific with the level,
but effectively that 200 day, right?
Like, so I think in stock talk, same thing, 200 days. So
it's like kind of, kind of curious the timing of that, but also it gives you that a little bit of
that like perspective that I kind of spoke to last week, where when we're up as aggressively
as we were up, people tend to look at the number on the screen and the reaction on the screen,
kind of like marry what they think about things with that.
And I think it's really important to, you know,
if you believe that that sell-off that we just had is just like a retest and that was it,
then cool, I'm not speaking to you.
But if you're one of those people that feels like there's some structural stuff,
it's kind of good to stay level-headed and kind of see these things play out the way that they're playing out
because it kind of keeps you a little bit measured.
So I'm paying attention to that stuff because I'm in the camp that I don't think that that low that we tested was just going to be like a one-off.
I kind of feel like this bounce is going to get sold eventually.
And it's just a matter of when, right?
So maybe we get through earnings and then get some sort of thing that, you know, resuscitates a sell-off of some
kind. I don't know how aggressive it'll be, but I'm in that camp. So kind of pay attention to
some of those things. And then lastly, we have like, you know, Meta reporting and some other
major companies. So with that same logic, want to see how that kind of shakes out, kind of plays
out. Meta's pressed up against a pretty aggressive downtrend.
So, you know, I think the quote is, violent indecision leads to violent decision. So it's probably going to be, you know, violent one way or the other based on if they beat or miss. Or,
you know, maybe it'll just be a premium sell event for the earnings itself, but the move after it
probably be, you know, some sort of relief in one direction or the other.
So that's kind of general high level where I'm at.
I'm not sure if I've got any other question on that, but I'll yield.
To your point, I believe Jamie Dimon said that his best case scenario was a mild recession, which, I mean, we're talking about the wild wings, wing stop, like what level are there's different levels of mild out there.
But I also would want to know what is his worst case scenario then, if his best case is the mild recession at this point.
Yeah, that's why it was interesting because of that logic.
Because he said best. He said best case scenario is mild recession.
So it's like, well, that's your best. Where's your middle or worst?
That always leaves the mind away.
And I also, again, so I'm saying the timing was interesting,
but I also wonder the why, right?
So if his best case scenario is a mild recession,
why is that his best case scenario?
What's the data behind it that he's using?
Or what's the logic that he gave?
That's the other thing. We'll see if it comes out or is he signaling he could be signaling to
people like you know this could be a shot straight towards the white house right
say hey this is what i'm seeing yeah 100 there was a when all this stuff was going down like a month ago, I remember one of the headlines that like circulated was that Jamie Dimon did an interview with Fox News because he knew that the president watched Fox News.
And so he kind of wanted to get his point across.
So, again, that's why I say like I'm curious of the timing.
And to your point, like, is he signaling? That's mean i'm curious of the timing and to your point like is he signaling
um that's kind of like part of the logic the other part for me is like like why again why is that the
best case scenario like does he see something structural or does he see something that's like
self-induced is it you know something that i'm not seeing or other people aren't seeing who knows
we'll see
yeah that'll definitely be interesting appreciate you kicking us off today wolfie uh cliff let's go over your direction next to what thoughts you have around this conversation
or just in general around the market what are you watching out there yeah definitely thanks
for having me on um it has been a wild a wild couple of weeks it's it's nice to see you know
i i mean i'm not much of a
trader. I don't pay attention to too much of the technicals, but at least some type of relief here.
I think that that's given a lot of people some things to think about from my side. You know,
we, we deal with a lot of people that are, you know, looking to invest for retirement. And when
you see those big swings in the market, not a bad time to see how you react, because a lot of people do react.
And that's the important thing.
When you're having reactions to these massive swings, sometimes you have to put your risk tolerance into perspective and really think how comfortable are you.
I think, you know, when things are great, like 23 and 24, where we're clocking over 20% on
the indices, everybody's happy, right? Nobody's upset about that. That's awesome. And everybody
wants to be risk on. But when you get that other tail end, which is, you know, we were on the one
tail end of reward, you know, being risk on investors. And then you kind of see that risk
is still there when you see those big snaps and that big whiplash in the market. And I think that drives a lot of people, they get really nervous.
There's a lot of investor psychology that plays out through that. I think that, you know,
especially in turbulent markets, I think investor psychology is exacerbated, whether that's,
you know, we're anchoring ourselves to previous price points,
where, you know, loss aversion comes into play. There's a lot of these different psychological
aspects that really get highlighted when the markets move like this. And I think it's not
a bad time to maybe go through your portfolio. Is this aligned with my risk tolerance? I mean,
you guys know me, I'm not really trading or anything for any clients or anything along those lines.
We're long-term investors, but it's not a bad time to go back through, see if your risk
tolerance is really in line with where you think it is.
If you got really, really nervous, that's usually an indicator that maybe we're being
a little bit too risk on. And there's ways to mitigate risk, right? Whether that's, you know,
increasing our fixed income exposure. But outside of that, you know, general rebalancing, you know,
it's, you know, when markets get super turbulent for people that are super long, they have super
long time horizons. Maybe it's not a bad idea.
Maybe we're going to build risk into the portfolio. Maybe, you know, stocks are down and we have a
little slice towards fixed income. Maybe we're looking to rotate out of the fixed income and
kind of buy that dip within our portfolios if we don't have cash on the side to, you know,
kind of execute on something like that.
But, you know, we're pretty much always preaching, you know, the idea that for most people, I know that there's a lot of traders. I don't mean to step on anybody's toes here. I know that, you know,
people can be successful at that. But for a lot of people that are working and looking to invest,
the best way to do that is through, you know, broad based indices, make sure making sure that we're maintaining, you know, an actual level
of diversification within a portfolio, especially when a lot of ETFs or indices are cap weighted
indices, where we see that, you know, the S&P 500 really isn't as diversified as one may see,
one may think, right? Yes, of course, it's five, of course, you're holding, I think it's 503 holdings or something like that. But when you see the top 10 holdings
are up on that 30% of the index, that's really what's driving the daily moves, right? So we want
to make sure that not only are we in line with our risk
tolerance levels, but we're actually investing in a diversified way. So those are some of the
things that I've been seeing. I never think it's a bad idea to go check in, whether that's, you
know, your 401k, you know, your annual rebalancing, anything along those lines. But other than that,
you know, so long as you are stable in your
employment, you know, sometimes these whiplashes really can create opportunities, especially for
a lot of our clients and people like myself that are younger. I have, you know, 20, 30,
40 year time horizon on some of this stuff. So it's pretty cool.
Appreciate those thoughts, Cliff. And of course, anyone, feel free to jump in if somebody said
something that you want to uh tack on to or rebuttal against either way would love to have
some open dialogue in the meantime uh options mike let's go over your direction and see what
you're seeing out there in the market hey i'm sorry i was having technical difficulties i had
restart my phone for some reason.
You know, today is kind of just what I thought we might get. It was an inside day of digestion, right?
After, you know, last week after that horrible Monday, we gapped up twice and we pushed here right to the, you know, this 552 area in the SPY. That was the 5% pullback area, and that was support. If you look at the SPY, we held there, you know, multiple
times before we finally gapped down and broke it. So it makes sense that it's going to be a little
bit of a tough area to take out here. What was support becomes resistance. I still think for me,
you know, the next target is we get back above this, we go into the gap, we hit the 50-day at
561 area, and then we tag the 200-day, and that's up around 573 right now I'll give you a number
uh you know roughly and then we go from there you know that's the spot where you know you take that
out you know then then we have a nice big rally on our hands you know and we'll see if we fail
there um I think this week for me is all about earnings right it's all about earnings this week
it's about meta it's about Microsoft it's week. It's about Meta, it's about Microsoft,
it's about Apple, it's about Amazon.
You know, those are gonna be the big drivers.
We got Caterpillar this week.
We have, you know, a lot of second year names
like SoFi and PayPal and UPS reports tomorrow.
So, you know, I think this is just really all about earnings
and how they react.
And it's been kind of weird.
Like I liked that Google report. I liked that Google report a ton and they completely sold it off. That whole big gap up has
been completely given back as of about two hours ago. You know, Tesla, which had an absolute
disaster of report along with CMG, they're both up. So I, you know, kind of weird what's going on
here, but you know, you just kind of take the action what it is.
For me today, I didn't do a lot.
I tried to take a trade on the, using TNA on the IWM,
and I made like 4 cents on a thousand shares
and it pulled back in my face and took me out.
And I had a nice trade on Tesla to the long side on the open
when it came out and started raging.
But outside of that, you know, this is type of action
where sometimes I just say, I'm just not interested in it. I'm not interested in shorting here because I did not see
a good reason for this sell-off today other than digestion, some premium burn-up Mondays.
And so I'm saying I'm not interested in shorting, and unless I see something I like,
I'm just going to leave it be. Palantir all over the place, but almost highs of the day here after
pulling all the way
back to the one on 09 area up five bucks there seems to be names they want no matter what and
if you're one of them they're going to just keep running them uh you know for me uh i think tomorrow
we hopefully get a little better action then i think kings really kick in in the later half of
this week once we get some of these big tech earnings come in.
Yeah, Mike, I'll add to that thought just a little bit.
I mean, we moved up pretty strongly over the last four sessions going into today.
So I had a little bit of a short bias when we were opening up and pushing in the morning.
On the daily chart, like if you look at QQQ, we spent 10 days basically inside a range,
but there was a pretty heavy level I had around 473-ish,
472, 473 in that area,
kind of entering that consolidation from the bottom side.
I just figured it would probably pull back from there.
And it basically pulled back and back-tested,
and I haven't done anything the entire afternoon. I haven't been a part of this move back up
and closed out all the shorts right there going into lunch, basically.
So that's what I saw.
I saw four days of big up movement
and coming into a little bit of an overhead kind of supply zone
and said, okay, well, I'll play shorts in the morning
and then get out of the way.
And honestly, I couldn't tell you what I really expect to happen
in the next 24, 48 hours.
Yeah, I kind of feel the same here.
You know, we can go either way with this,
but ultimately I think as long as earnings
are good on these big tech names,
the move's going to take us up higher
and then we'll see.
You know, again,
unless these reports are disasters,
but market seems to be liking companies
that have bad reports,
except for UnitedHealthcare.
They did not like that at all.
Yeah, it'd be interesting. Obviously, huge week of earnings this week. We'll be live during most
of them. We have four Mac7 names coming up later this week. We have Robinhood. We have Qualcomm,
MSTR, Reddit, a lot of other big names that people watch. So just to call out a few there.
it, a lot of other big names that people watch. So just to call out a few there and yeah, who knows
what they're going to say. And of course the Fed did enter into a blackout period on Friday. So
we won't hear any Fed speakers until we hear from Powell on the 7th and we'll, well, we get a big
job report on Friday as well. And those GDP numbers coming out Wednesday. So a lot of data is going
to hit us in the next three to four
trading sessions should be very interesting. And of course, we'll cover it all right here on
Stocks on Spaces. Logical, let's go over your direction next and see what you're doing out
there in this market. Yeah, I just got in the gym. So apologies for any background noise. But
yeah, I think doing nothing is kind of what i did today i tried
a short today and uh just because i agree like you know clearly we're at that point that level
we had a few strong sessions i thought we'd get some chop but man the sell-off today was low volume
uh the the bounce back it's just showing that this is a very resilient market um having opinions
one way or another i think screw you i think you want to be very nimble and i'm very long in this
market i have zero shorts on will i will i regret that possibly but i'm also the type of person that
can change my net long exposure pretty quickly so So, um, I'm just kind of thinking about
it like day to day watching the price action. If we lose some moving averages and whatnot, then
I'll probably, uh, you know, sell some longs that maybe are a little far-fetched or they start
looking a little weak, ready to roll over. Uh, I'll add some shorts, just get my net long exposure
down. But yeah,
I mean, at this point, there's really no point in having too strong of an opinion.
I think, you know, people keep talking about, you know, these headlines of shipping containers.
And I think a lot of the macro stuff is, it's a little bit too hard. And, you know, if you
look too deep into the macro, then you're going to feel like, hard. And, you know, if you look too deep into the macro, uh, then you're going to feel like, yeah,
like, you know, sell all equities. It doesn't make sense,
but all those things are known by the market.
So they're priced in by the market and the market is holding up just fine. So,
you know, I wonder, you know, I think to, to get us, like, I'm,
I'm getting to the camp where, you know know it's a break below the 480 lows
i think you're gonna need some sort of i don't know something you're gonna need something to
break those lows uh that isn't known today uh because the headlines i mean we had i think
stock talk mentioned the other day we had news failure um to the upside, which was, you know, the news was getting worse and the market shrugged it off and went higher.
So, you know, I'm wondering if, you know, what's that thing that's going to really take us further down?
So I don't want to say that I'm complacent at this point, because like I said, I'll be quick to adjust if I feel that things are getting worse.
But and then, you know, you're seeing all those headlines about shipping container volumes are down it's like well you know that's that's known um and then
you see things like walmart and other big box retailers are actually resuming those shipments
you know and that comes after their uh meeting with trump so just wondering you know do they
know something do they think that maybe there will be a resolution to these trade wars i mean clearly
you had 145
percent tariffs right like that is the worst possible scenario i don't it doesn't get worse
than that so it can only get better um that said you know if they you know if he's serious about
50 percent tariffs then yeah i mean kiss this market goodbye but i have a feeling it's not
going to get there um also all that stuff about austerity um seems like bs now especially with
the with doge not being able to cut as nowhere near what they thought they would it seems like
they're just gonna blow out the fiscal deficit uh again even after they basically said uh no this
will be different like no and uh that's what we're i think that's what's being proven true at this
point so for me uh it's hard to get bearish equities
when they come out and say things like,
oh, we're not watching the market.
Market goes down 20%.
And they're definitely watching the markets
because Basant had his interview yesterday
and he said, oh, well,
what about the strong bounce back in history
from the lows recently?
Nobody's talking about that.
It's like, okay, dude, so you are watching the market.
Yeah, they're still using it very much as a kpi for their success as an administration so you know when you have these people who are you know selling you a story and they're not actually
believing it themselves and they keep showing you that um it's tough to get bearish and um yeah i
mean look from a fundamental perspective i still think that there's going to be pockets of strength and weakness.
Like, I am not long any big tech.
You know, I do see a lot of the big options flow going out to June 2026 in names like Amazon and Google, which makes me think, OK, maybe, you know, this will be short lived and, you know, the leaders will go back to leading.
But my thought is also that, you know, they're sitting at like almost two three trillion dollar market caps which
means that you need a lot more liquidity in the system to support those types of valuations so
i'm just wondering you know are there going to be other pockets of strength and you know like
palantir for example just you know up and keeps going up right like nothing is stopping that train
um i have not long anything like that uh so yeah i mean i guess what i'm trying to say is like
So, yeah, I mean, I guess what I'm trying to say is like, it's possible that, I don't know, we go to a period where RRSP holds up better than SPY.
I mean, even just looking today, RRSP showed relative strength against SPY, which is the market cap weighted versus the equal weighted.
stock, catch, bids? Can people continue to degross and deleverage and rotate out of big tech into
other parts of the market that are at better valuations, easier to support valuations,
lower size, et cetera? So that's where I'm focused. And I still think my base case is definitely that
we're going to have a slowing economy considering, you know, the consumer has been as strong as possible. You're getting resuming of student loans and that's going to affect,
you know, income statements and balance sheets of the American consumer. So, you know, my baseline
is still, I'm heavily weighted. I still have about half my portfolio in biotechs, which I've been
talking a lot about. I think they'll do well in whatever the tariff scenario is, given their high margins, given that people will continue to buy medicines.
I still have, you know, 15, 20% exposure in Latin America, which I think is still going to do well
from here. And then, you know, I have a lot of exposure in some names that are catalyst trade
driven around that Google ad tech antitrust trial ruling, which we should get proposed remedies
as early as this Friday,
which will be an interesting catalyst as well.
So I'm not saying, you know, market goes straight up
and, you know, everything makes sense,
but would it make sense that maybe the market cap weighted
ends up, I don't know, chopping around, consolidating
while we start seeing rotation to other parts of the market which
have basically been overlooked for a long time i don't know i think that would be pretty healthy
i like so i guess if i was to lean one way or another at this point given the facts today no
further deterioration no further whatever no news etc i would say maybe like a consolidation year
go sideways it's chop fest because I think to break to new lows,
you would need more bad incremental information.
And, you know, like at 20% decline at that 480 level,
you basically were starting to price in, I think like a mild recession.
So, you know, and they're now like trying to pivot and change course
and the fiscal is still supporting any type of slowdown at this moment to get through this trade war.
You know, I'm just thinking like, what's it going to take to break below those lows?
I mean, can we do, you know, a double bottom retest of those lows?
Yeah, maybe.
I'll just keep watching the price action and let that tell me if I should be a little bit more defensive or not.
watching the price action and let that tell me if I should be a little bit more defensive or not.
But I think like spy 520 gap fill, putting it a higher low, I think that actually would be super
bullish. I would like to see something like that. I don't like the gap on the chart. Other than that,
I mean, just pick your spots, know what you like. Stocks are still in some cases, 50, 60% cheaper
than they were two months ago. So yeah, if you think that you know we could potentially bounce
back and there's pockets of value through low valuations um and hopefully minimal business
disruption then you know it you know if we start to turn around that's how you're gonna get a lot
of outperformance i think so but again um i'm not discrediting the possibility of having to flip back to defensive if things change or price action tells me.
But this market just showed it's pretty resilient, even after a multi-day run.
I mean, the sell-off was on low volume and it recovered and bounced back to green.
So I don't know. I'm just going to let that price action tell me what to do.
Anyways, that's all.
I want to jump in quickly on something logical said, and it's important.
The market is shrugging off news at this point, shrugging off bad news.
It's just kind of done with it.
And when the market starts doing that, it's basically accepted that this is just going to be the chatter and it's going to try to ignore it unless it's something that is just beyond what's expected.
So, you know, when you get chatter, China says, no, we're not talking to the US, the market just shrugs
it off.
It doesn't care anymore.
And that's important because that's a strong market.
That's what you want to be in.
That's what you want here is you want the market to only really care if it's good news
or if it's just something completely unexpected bad news.
Whereas talks with Japan could say, well, it's just fell apart. You know, that would be something like that.
Good point, logical.
Monitiv, great to have you up here on stage.
What are you seeing out there in the market?
Well, we have, you know, we are in the meat of the earnings season and i think earnings is
providing a lot of support here when we entered the earnings season the expected year over year
earnings growth was eight percent and about four percent revenue growth we are doing quite a bit
better than that in in earnings so far with just over a third of
the companies reported we have uh we are knocking on 11 10.9 earnings growth and 4.4 revenue growth
that that's that's far better than was expected you know two weeks ago so so that is certainly providing support the fact that uh
companies still haven't pulled guidance or have not been or the commentary has not been extremely
negative uh so far has certainly helped put a floor on the market and uh you know we've got we've got
the rest of this week massive amounts of earnings to come
and also a lot of economic data
so I think we're going to react
a lot to all of that
once we take that in
we've got a whole bunch of
by the first week of may we've got a whole bunch of
companies that will be open to uh to buybacks or that'll be you know that that'll be out of their
lockdowns uh they're sorry they're lockups so you know we could have hundreds of billions in buybacks
in may so that's that's another positive for
the market so that there's a lot of reasons to like this but i i honestly don't see how anyone
can say that we priced in even a 20 across the boat tariff let alone a 50 or 60%. I think that's, we are nowhere near that priced into the market.
I mean, the level of inflation, even with a 20% across the board tariff, would be immense.
We're not talking mild recession.
We're talking a significant stagflation if if that stays in the
books we're still pricing in some sort of resolution with everything going back to what it was you know
at the beginning of the year and nothing in the rhetoric tells me that that's the case
so so that's that's what i worry about we we've got the support of the earnings and when that
goes away in about two weeks time time for most of the market,
your earnings is pretty much written in stone.
Where do we get that support from?
Then we're going to trade on every tweet again, right?
Every time there's some news about we have a deal,
then we don't have a deal, then we have a deal,
then no partner has signed a deal so
i i don't know i i am far more negative than anybody that that that i've heard so far here
about where this about the confidence in where this market is going uh could we just stop here
roughly in the you know plus or minus 10, 15% range?
Possibly.
But I don't have that confidence if we are still, you know, at the end of the season,
if you're still at the end of this earning season, if you're still talking about, you
know, a massive reminder tariff on everything, I think all bets are off.
And I think it's impossible to imagine a soft landing of any sort with a 20% reminder tariff, let alone a 50% or a 60%.
I don't know how anybody can claim that we're going to make it out of that without serious destruction.
without uh without serious destruction it just it just boggles my mind that that we're we're not
we're not discussing this more right this this is a big problem but you know it's been surprisingly
good so far companies are not freaking out yet we shall see we shall see how we land right uh the one thing that i do agree there's nothing to
suggest that there's any you know uh budgetary slowdown in the government right there they're
spinning up the the continuing resolution for defense at 150 billion that's being discussed
you know over and above the 870 billion budget that's been presented.
We're talking a trillion dollar defense budget.
And that's 15% raise over last year.
And this is going to pervade in pretty much every area at this point in time
to make up for what we are going to lose in economic activity from private sector.
But I don't think it's enough.
I think it's a little too late to stay off at least some level of slowdown this year.
I don't know where we stop, but there is no stopping if we set a permanent tariff of 20%. Yeah, Monit, if I totally agree with you, I just think either the market is telling
you that they don't believe that that's going to happen.
No, I don't think it necessarily is saying they don't believe it's going to happen.
I think they're in part calling his bluff.
So maybe he is crazy enough for it to happen.
But this started last week when you started to get some of these headlines from Trump that ran counter to some of these headlines that you got from China. You have Trump saying one thing and then like minutes or an hour later, you'd have Chinese
accounts, Chinese official accounts say, no, this is not true.
And the market just kind of ran, ran with it.
And I think if you're like, if you're going to just equate it to like playing some sort
of cards or something, they're basically calling this bluff they're saying uh okay we know that that's not what's
happening we just want to see if if you're gonna be crazy enough to let it happen kind of thing
that's how like that's how i'm doing it maybe maybe i'm wrong but that's how i'm doing it
because eventually that rubber has to meet the road and if he does go through with it then we'll
be at we'll be at it we'll be at
like you know multiples that are way too high and a lot of things have to come down so i think
if i'm just playing if i'm just equating to like playing chicken i think they're calling his bluff
yeah wolf the the the you if you look under the covers right now china has exempted a ton of you know exports from us already they've
been exempted from tariff so this is my thing right right now there is zero impact and we're
still you know what 15 uh below from the high and that's with zero impact with almost everything everything exempted right with with a few exceptions if we really start undoing everything
and and forcing uh you know and across the board tariff all these things come back right i mean
semis have been exempted for most part semi caps are all mouthing off about how good things are
because they all got exempted and nobody's blocking them today but you know if if it
does get back in right i mean we could have a situation where like like nvidia is is one of
the few that's that's actually facing the you know the impact of of of trade barriers right nvidia amd and and asml you're going to see the impact of of of events like that
on every every semi cap if they're blocked from trading if they're blocked from you know having
a zero tariff export all of those those uh those guidance that they've given have to be pulled they
only gave that guidance because they have been exempted so far. And that's
not going to hold if we don't get a trade deal with
China done and with others for that matter.
So this NVIDIA like large
write downs will have to be taken by everybody across the board
in semis. It's just an example i'm saying
yeah 100 i just i'm just trying to point i agree with you i just i'm trying to point to
i think you know it's not just you know the the media headlines or the media conversation
even conversations here we were talking about how asinine that plan was right and so i think people started to position
against those headlines saying this is just so crazy it won't happen right and so
if it's crazy enough to happen i think the positioning will go the other way
as quickly as it went this way for for many of the reasons that Monitif just said.
Stock talk.
What's up?
What's cracking?
What's cracking, guys?
Happy Monday. Good conversations here.
I guess I'll just go through what I did today.
I did a couple things today.
We added Huntington and Gallus on Friday, HII,
which made about a percent and a half move after our ad
and was up another percent or so today.
I've added that to my aerospace and defense basket.
That includes Kratos and Embraayer jets um and a couple of other
names as well um but i feel like it's a good fit you know hunting den giles is trading right now
at an 8.5 billion market cap it's the only real shipbuilder in the united states at least in terms
of military shipbuilding um it's hard to draw a line in terms of immediate earnings impact for
what the administration is trying to do. We found out about the supplementary defense package
details last week. We knew shipbuilding was a priority for the administration,
but we didn't know the numbers. And the Republican package or the defense supplementary package allocating between $20 to $30 billion for shipbuilding.
So I think it's an area that you have to have exposure.
And we went with Huntington and Gallus.
They obviously report earnings this week.
I have no clue what's going to happen on the earnings report.
But on a week report, I would add more because that's sort of a thematic trade for me
as opposed to based on the fundamental inflection.
So Huntington and Gallus, nice relative strength today, nice move on Friday.
That's a new position for us.
I added some exometry today, ticker XMTR.
That made a nice move off this morning as well.
Picked it up this morning around 2430.
It's going to close around 2660 today.
So nice four or 5% cushion for us on day one of this.
This was actually a mystic idea.
It's one of the analysts in our,
in our server.
He also has a great Twitter page.
If you want to go check him out and follow him,
but he did some research on this one over the weekend. and I think he has some good points he's making.
They are a company that is matching smaller manufacturers with larger manufacturers.
And you might think at face value, that's pretty boring business, but with tariffs on the table, um, it's actually
quite interesting. Uh, you know, they, it's really hard to make an argument that this company
wouldn't benefit from tariff adaptation, if you will, is the, is the way I'll put it, uh, that's
happening in the United States. And so, um, I think it's a pretty clear cut beneficiary of nearshoring and reshoring.
And I like the look of the chart this morning as well.
Mystic posted about that idea today on our server.
And I looked at the chart popping over the 200-day moving average,
you know, 9 and 21 EMAs sloping to the upside.
Today it's pushing to the 50 day as well.
So you have a 50 and 200 day recapture simultaneously with a up sloping 9 and 21 EMA.
That's a great setup.
It's a type of setup I'll hit all the time.
So like the technical setup, like the thematic picture here,
I think if this thing can push over 2750 in the coming days,
you have a pretty clear cut path to 30. And then you'll encounter some resistance there. And we'll
see where it goes from there. But that was another new ad for me today as well. There were some good
analyst reports out this morning, or at least some interesting ones that did move stocks.
Peloton had a report out from Truist today. This is a stock that very frequently moves off reports out this morning or at least some interesting ones that did move stocks um peloton
had a report out from truest today this is a stock that very frequently moves off analyst reports
it was a really nice mover at the front end of the year before the correction started
on some b of a commentary on peloton you had truest coming out this morning as well saying
They believe the business is at an inflection point.
they believe the business is at an inflection point they put an 11 target on it
They put an $11 target on it.
That stock sort of brunt the pullback of the markets today is going to close up about 5% on that report.
Boeing also had a nice report this morning from Bernstein.
Bernstein basically calling bottom on Boeing.
And if you pull up the Boeing chart this morning, it actually was another really nice chart, you know up sloping 9 and 21 ema
it's actually stacked on all of its moving averages or was as of this morning uh it's
pulled away a little bit now but over 185 this can get explosive you know 100 day 200 day and
50 day all stacked up sloping 9 and 21 emas there's some stocks like this that are popping up
now where
they've done the corrective work a little bit of this green action over the last few weeks has
pushed them back above their 200 days and now they're looking to build support those are the
types of names i think you want to be in um boeing is is on my no trade list personally so that's not
one that i hit today but we did cover that on our stream this morning,
and that stock did nicely save about 2.5% Boeing.
We also talked about Jack in the Box this morning on our live stream, ticker Jack.
There was a bottom call on that one from Stiefel this morning.
Now, unlike the other two that I mentioned, this is not a nice chart.
This thing's been sold pretty aggressively.
It was in the 40s back in
march trading 25 now but steve will basically making the argument that last week was a clearing
event for jack-in-the-box so they're just calling bottom catching the knife putting a 32 target on
it which is lower than the original 35 target. But all things considered, the price
has gone down a lot, so it makes sense. They're talking about debt reduction over the next 12
months. They're also talking about a divestiture of Del Taco, which is currently owned by Jack
of the Box. They think that'll provide some balance sheet support and aid in reducing debt,
which should bring the equity up to a $30 to $32 fair value, according to Stiefel.
So Jack of the Bucks did also quite well on that report today.
And on the speculative side, you also had LPTH, Light Path Technologies, which is sort of a meme stock.
But you had a very aggressive note this morning from Craig Hallam on Light Path Technologies saying that they think the stock could be a four-bagger.
They just directly said that.
Craig Hallam's, in my view, one of the better shops when it comes to small caps.
They make some great calls.
They don't really say that often.
They say we see the opportunity for the stock to be a four-bagger if not more from catalysts coming in the near term
and we also see a great margin of safety to the downside we think a strategic change is underway
at lightpath technologies that is unfolding before us right now lightpath is moving from a component
level business in infrared imaging to be focused on higher level integration and as a result higher
asps and the growth that comes with it.
Not coincidentally, LPTH's new capabilities are increasingly necessary for defense and
related markets.
That's the part of the note that got me because you guys know how bullish I am on these small
and mid-cap defense opportunities.
But yeah, I thought it was a really aggressive note from Craig Hallam on that one.
I took that one for a day trade as well this morning, and that's working really really well about 13 on the day so it was a nice day for
catalyst today it's been a while since um i've seen this many good reports today like i said
there were about four or five good ones um we chatted about them on our stream this morning
as well but yeah i'm starting to see a handful more single stock opportunities in the market
obviously the stabilization of the last couple weeks has helped with that um when it comes to
the backdrop my concerns remain the same um i have very very deep concerns about the economy
um and that that hasn't gone away in spite of the technical structure improving in spite of the
single stock opportunities presenting themselves i'm going to hit these stocks when they set up for me,
you know, especially if they're in my areas of interest. And that's a big thing with me. Like,
I typically don't hit stocks outside of my areas of interest. There are exceptions to that. You
know, I'm currently along a biotech name, ASND, which I don't know a whole lot about, but I think
it has very, very strong technical structure.
So there's going to be some exceptions where I might long a stock in an industry where
I don't have a tremendous amount of knowledge, but I try not to do that.
Most of the names I buy, I try to be at least somewhat cognizant of what's going on in the
backdrop of the industry, what the competitors are doing, so on and so forth.
And so, yeah, single stock trades are working in this environment still.
Catalysts are a little harder to come by.
They're not going to be three or four great reports every morning.
But when they're there, then we hit them.
And when not, then we just be patient.
I do think twofold about this whole conversation in the backdrop,
which there were some good comments from Wolf and Monitiv and stuff earlier.
I think what Wolf and Monitiv and Logical said,
even though they were kind of disagreeing with each other on certain points,
I think they're all correct.
First of all, I think the market is calling bluff on tariffs
or else we'd be down way more.
In fact, I think we'd be down way more than the 480 lows if the market was trying to price these in.
So I think that's the only possible scenario is that the market is saying we don't believe this is going to stay in place.
Which is concerning because if it does stay in place, that means you have more downside.
Because if it does stay in place, that means you have more downside.
Secondarily on earnings, I think earnings are going to give a misleading picture this season.
The reason for that is for the same reason that I just mentioned, which is that markets are calling bluff on this.
I think to a degree, you will have executives calling bluff on this as well.
Now, does that mean you're not going to hear any
commentary about tariffs on earnings? Of course not. You're going to hear commentaries about
tariffs on earnings. We've already heard plenty of tariff commentary on earnings.
What it does mean is that you might not get the full picture of business impact
on a stock-by-stock basis this earnings season, which I think some people are expecting.
Coming into the earnings season, there was a school of people
that were saying, well, we're going to get big cuts.
You know, if earnings go down, stocks go down more.
And I agree with that notion.
Obviously, if earnings, if we end this earnings season with dramatically lower earnings, that's
not going to be good for stocks.
But it was either you're in that camp or you're in the camp that, you know, we're going to
see huge beats and everything's going to go up 20 percent.
I think it's somewhere in between.
I think more realistically, you're going to have executives attempt to navigate tariff uncertainty, give you their most confident look heading into that.
And, you know, they may not be able to meet those expectations in the following quarters, especially if the tariffs remain in place.
So I think we're kind of in a gray area this earnings season when it comes to the guidance that we're being given.
You know, the start of the earnings season, I felt like the risk reward was good for a lot of individual names.
And I still think that purely on a technical basis, right?
Names have sold off a lot.
If they're able to muster together some sort of sensible results, those stocks probably go higher.
I still agree with that notion. But the problem I'm having is kind of squaring away the
believability of earnings outlooks the same way I'm having trouble squaring away the believability
of if the tariffs remain in place. And those two things go hand in hand, right? Because if you're a market participant is sitting
here like, well, stocks have rebounded, technical structure is coming back on a lot of individual
names. It looks like a market that's safe to wade back into again. I would agree with that
sentiment. The tricky part about it is though, you wade back into the market here, Q1 goes fine.
In the next few quarters of the year, we start seeing those real-world impacts on the tariffs and start seeing them show up in the economic data.
You know, part of the reason why the soft data right now looks okay, and the Dallas Fed manufacturing data from today was not. But outside of that, it's looked okay so far because,
again, soft data, or sorry, I said that backwards. The reason hard data has looked okay and soft data
has looked bad is because the speculation shows up in the soft data first, right? When people
are worried about something and they see something that might be coming around the corner, that's not reflected in the hard data because the hard data hasn't changed yet.
But it is reflected in people's fears and level of confidence.
And that's what we're seeing right now.
That's stage one.
You know, and somebody brought up a great chart on Twitter today.
I forgot which account it was.
which account it was i want to give them credit but i'm trying to scroll through anyway there was
I want to give them credit, but I'm trying to scroll through.
a chart this morning somebody posted and it was talking about um just showing the global financial
crisis the dot-com bubble they're showing like how data hard data was resilient for like the first
four or five months of those events and i think it's a good point because a lot of times you'll have things happen
like external impetus on the economy. And then people will say, well, it's not impacting the
data. And they use that as like a crutch to sort of shrug it off and say like, well, it's not
impacting the economic data. So we must be concerned about nothing. But the issue with that
line of thinking is it's like, you know, it's it's an urgent line of thinking.
Right. People are like, oh, I want I want I want the data to reflect the economic uncertainty now, even though that's not the way it works.
Right. A lack of confidence takes a long time to bleed into the real economy.
And in this case, where we're talking about things like shipping and freight volumes, right, you look at the satellite imaging over the weekend and last week of Chinese ports,
and they're at like literally 25-year highs of congestion
because there's so many goods that are stalled at the Chinese ports
that are supposed to be headed for L.A. and New York,
and they're stalled there because
of tariffs. And so the issue with that is, is that that will have, that impact will happen in
bunches, right? Those goods that are scheduled to be exported, right? That are sitting in the
poor right now in China is a massive amount of, call it X goods supply. Okay. And that X amount
of goods supply is currently in limbo between both the Western and Eastern economies. Okay.
It's not, it hasn't, it hasn't been injected into either market as a result of tariffs. And so
if this sit, if these tariffs sit in place for another month or two months,
a lot of that supply is going to just return to the manufacturers in China.
Freight volumes are going to collapse. You're going to see a deflationary impact in China.
You're going to see an inflationary impact, so the opposite in the United States. And you're
going to see a large stall in business activity across the board
globally. That will, not maybe, not kind of, not could, that will cause a global recession.
The math doesn't work. And I'd love for anyone to come up here and make the argument to me that
it won't, because I would love to have that debate. I'd love to spend the rest of the space
having that debate, to be honest, because I don't know anyone that can convince me that's not going to happen.
And that's my concern.
What's not going to happen? I'm sorry, just to be clear.
A global recession if the tariffs remain in place.
Oh, yeah. I wouldn't even take the other side of that for entertainment purposes.
I wouldn't take the other side of that for, yeah, for a 1 to 10.
I wouldn't take any amount of odds on the other
side of that. So top five, top five worst arguments. Yeah, yeah, exactly. So yeah,
that's the thing. I think you basically, you have two options here. We've kind of spent weeks now
debating this thing. It's pretty simple now here. Either the tariffs remain in place and we get a
global recession and markets go way lower or the tariffs come off and the markets are fine with it. Obviously, there's a caveat, sort of a third scenario where we wait too long
to pull the tariffs off and then it's too late anyway and you get the recession anyway.
But yeah, I'm starting to get more incrementally positive in individual stocks, like I mentioned,
I mentioned, starting to look at more catalysts, starting to take more stabs. Many of them are
starting to look at more catalysts, starting to take more stabs. Many of them are working,
working, but my concerns about the backdrop remain. My concerns about a global recession remain. So
I have to weigh that balance to a degree, right? That affects my sizing a little bit.
It affects my willingness to hold stuff. There's certain stuff I've added recently that I've put
down on a 3% allocation where in a more bullish market or in an environment where I was more certain, I might have put that at a 5% or 6% allocation to my portfolio.
But I'm operating with conservative size here.
So if I'm wrong, I'm wrong small.
And if I'm not wrong, I can participate in the upside.
And outside of that, I'm chilling.
I still have a very good cash pile
not rushing into equities there are there's a short list i have of a handful of names that i
really really want to own but i will buy them 10 or 15 percent higher if i have to and there's more
clarity in the background because those aren't names that i want to trade for a couple months
they're names that i really want to own so I'm willing to wait you know markets not going anywhere
I'm doing fine making trades in the meanwhile not making as many trades as normal but the ones that
I am making are working well so I have nothing nothing to complain about I do think to get back
to 480 to get back to the lows you are going to need another downside catalyst.
I don't think that's just going to happen automatically.
And I think there's some people that think like, well, this scenario is, you know, kind of being shrugged off by the markets now.
We can go higher. I can start buying everything I want.
I think the issue with that line of thinking is, again, we're calling bluff in
the status quo right now in the markets, but that bluff may or may not come through.
And Trump's comments recently have worried about me that have worried me about that as
well.
You know, Trump recently has said, like, he's been talking about the income tax thing again,
which like, if that's a goal, then tariffs coming off makes no sense.
But also he said this morning, there's no red line in the sand.
I don't know if he wants to take him off.
You know, I was thinking like earlier that it's just impractical and stupid, but now
I'm starting to think like, maybe he just doesn't want to take him off.
Maybe this really is a policy change he wants to make
and wants to change it.
And the last thing I'll say is that
there were some comments about J.D. Vance over the weekend.
A lot of people were rallying around where,
I don't know if it was an interview or a speech he was giving.
I just saw a clip of it.
But he made some comments and said that,
you know, the United States is too reliant on China for everything.
You know, our producers need their parts and we need their electronics and their screens for our TVs and so on and so on.
He's going through a laundry list of stuff that we're dependent on China for.
China for. And he said, well, President Trump's the first Trump president in 30 years to say this
is dumb and we can't be reliant on an enemy of ours and it needs to change. And the crowd roared
and a bunch of people were reposting it. I don't disagree with that sentiment, like at all.
You know, I strongly agree with the idea that the United States is too dependent on China.
But I think even if you hold that position, which again, I hold that belief,
this isn't the right way to decouple. And it's not a practical way to decouple.
It's going to result in an enormously unpredictable path for the economy for a long time.
And that's not a risk you generally want to take.
You know, you go back to the global financial crisis, it took roughly a decade for the economy to fully recover, maybe 11 or 12 years if you want to be conservative.
Some people make an argument that there's still lingering effects from the GFC.
Some people make an argument that there's still lingering effects from the GFC.
You know, you look at the response that it takes to save a global economy.
You know, you have people out there that are saying, I want rates to come down.
So I'm cool with crashing the economy.
So rates come down.
That's a really, really silly way to think.
Because rates coming down and fiscal stimulus is what got us into such a complicated economic scenario in the first place, where we're a nation with high inflation, high debt, and an economy that's on the teeter that could end up slowing down into the end of the year.
That sort of thinking got us there in the first place.
So, no, we don't want to induce a recession just to cut rates, especially a global recession.
That would be a bad risk calculus.
Everyone talks about risk calculus, risk reward, benefit.
We talk about that in trading a lot.
That would be terrible risk calculus to say, put the global economy into recession just
to get rates down.
So hopefully we don't do that.
And hopefully people stop clamoring in support of that.
Because if you think that's going to help regular everyday people,
you've lost your mind. That's not what happens in a recession. In a recession, regular everyday
people suffer. And a lot of times the rich get richer. And in the cases where the rich don't
get richer, they still go to their steak dinners and still take their wives on vacations. It's a
completely different reality for the wealthy when we go into an economic slowdown.
The everyday people suffer, not the wealthy.
So be mindful of that if you're one of those people that's clapping for a recession to get rates down.
Unless you're a billionaire or multi-multi-millionaire, you're probably going to be one of the people that suffer too.
Yeah, I saw, I put out a post, but uh 55 of americans there's been different data points but 55 of them own stocks either directly or indirectly through like their pensions or
something like that yeah it's the the wall street versus main street thing is like hilariously dumb
it's just dumb i don't know why it gets reiterated so much. It's like, dude, Main Street has a very big stake in Wall Street.
Very big.
And even if you don't believe that, for whatever reason,
I know these days there's a lot of people that just don't believe facts.
So, okay, even if you're one of the people that just doesn't believe
that people are that exposed to stocks,
do you think people are exposed to the job market?
Is that an unbelievable statement too? Because hopefully not. And people are exposed to job
market, right? I was talking about people's retirements getting delayed and somebody
commented on one of my posts and they were like, well, I'm a 25 year old American. I don't care
about retirement. I feel bad for those people, but I don't care. And I don't care what asset
price is because I'm going to be holding stocks for for 30 years so i don't care if there's a correction
right now so somebody legitimately replied to my post um and commented last week or the week before
and my response to him was you're 25 do you care about the job market like at all and if you don't
do you think other 25 year olds care about it or other
30 year olds care about it? The answer, the short answer is obviously yes. And, you know, not only
do we already have a tight and competitive job market in America where we have, you know,
jobs that are require either college degrees or require high technical skill to be competitive for,
then that job market's already tight, regardless if it's healthy or not.
The job market slows into the back half of the year.
You know, a lot of these people, it won't just be about retirement delays anymore.
It'll be about new college grads not being able to get jobs.
college grads not being able to get jobs.
And that matters
or it should matter to the people
who are somehow in
favor of the way we're approaching
this policy.
So I ask those people
if, you know, I imagine there's a lot of those people
in the audience because it's been very...
Let me tell you, dude, I got
the dumbest reply ever
I posted about this. I was like,
you know, like, we're getting a policy driven
bad correction very quickly in the market.
And I was just saying like, you know, that's not really good.
Doesn't help if you're like somebody who owns assets.
And someone tried to reply to me and said,
well, if you don't own assets,
this is a great opportunity to be able to buy lower.
I think he's trying to help people.
Like Trump is trying to help people
by lowering asset prices.
And it's like, dude, if one person can just take the entire market at any given point
then what makes you think this won't happen when you are the one who owns assets like stability is
what we need in market so i just find it really funny when people try to put a positive spin or
try to find some less negative spin on this doesn't make sense
yeah yeah there's no positive spin on a global recession
and there's like yeah again the idea that like asset prices go down and that's good because like
people can buy assets um yeah that's just stupid that's destruction of economic value
there's long-term impacts to that on the businesses there's long-term impacts to that on the businesses. There's long-term impacts to that on the consumers.
It's just not smart thinking.
And I think a lot of those people, frankly, I'm not insulting anyone here, are just not thinking for themselves.
They're not looking at the balance of evidence and being like, hmm, what's really going to happen here if the two countries who have 40% of globaldp just stop trading you know what's the
consequence of that like i don't know you don't need to be a genius to figure that out um monitor
what's up well nothing i was just waiting uh earnings are starting to come out so i have a
few that i can talk about go for it so sanmina sanmina is a contract manufacturer. We heard from Celestica last week. So Sanmina,
revenue at 1.98 billion, that's at the high end of their guidance. Year over year, small growth
there. Again, negligible percentage growth, but it is there, whatever. Gap margin 4.6% from up from 4.1% non gap margin 5.6,
which is also up from 5.4. EPS, gap EPS up again, non gap, which is above their guidance.
gap which is above their guidance that's a 1.41 versus 1.3 that they guided
cash flow is up they did a small they repurchased a million shares guidance is sort of negative
guidance they are guiding down very slightly revenue between 1.925 and 2.
Revenue between 1.925 and 2.
They are guiding EPS between 1.05 and 1.15.
All of those numbers are lower from last,
comparable quarter last year.
That is Samina.
Teradyne just came out.
Teradyne revenue guidance.
Hold on. Let me go to the one. Teradyne revenue was $693 million near the top end of their guidance, which was $660 to $700, above analyst expectation of $684.
That's a 15% growth, so that's good. EPS of 65, which is again at the higher end of their guidance, 58 to 68.
Analyst expectation of 61 cents.
So that's another good growth.
So Teradyne, strong demand from AI networking and high bandwidth memory.
So they don't have guidance.
Guidance will be in the call.
So don't have guidance for them,
but let me see if Cadence is out.
Appreciate you monitor there. There's, I've seen a couple other numbers too, appreciate you
monitor there
I've seen a couple
other numbers too
like well tower
and cadence systems
and a couple
other stuff like that
let us know
down below
if you want us
to talk about
some of these
earnings and
monitor as you
continue to kind
of dig into them
if there's anything
else that's
interesting for you
definitely feel free
to jump back
into the conversation
NXPI is a
semi-name
isn't it yeah did they just report earnings i was looking for it they're on the schedule for
today it says 410 so i'm looking for those numbers here it is right here yeah we have 2.84 billion in revenue. In line with midpoint.
So we can quickly go over cadence.
Cadence 1.242
met the consensus.
So that's not a beat there, but it did meet.
Gap margin at 29%,
which is up from 25 last quarter.
That's good.
Non-gap margin at 41 41.7 that's also up
uh 1.57 net income for non-gap which beat estimate of 1.49 so this is pretty solid
uh quarter and backlog is 6.4 billion. Remaining performance obligations are 3.2 million.
Again, 3.2 billion.
Again, very solid numbers.
Let's see.
What are they saying?
They raised their full-year outlook for 2025.
Revenue range from 5.1 to 5.23 billion.
range from 5.1 to 5.23 billion. So it's very slightly over the previous estimate for the year.
Margin expectations were not given previously, but it's now 30 and a quarter up to 31 and a quarter.
up to 31.25. Non-GAAP margin is flat exactly what they gave before, 43.25 to 44.25. That's exactly where they had it before. GAP diluted net income per share is up slightly from 421 to 431 range. It is two cents beyond the previous range
non-gap is
About eight cents over the previous range from top to bottom
That's cadence you guys continue. I'll look for the others
Very nice motive very nice monotive yeah nxpi looks like it was beat on eps on eps yeah in line with revenue
stocks down about three four percent in after hours trading here let me pin up the earnings
oh the earnings calendar is already pinned up in the nest above we have a lot of names i know
there's a couple here today waste management too we're looking but tomorrow morning there's
names like coca-cola sofi spotify pf UPS, and more. Altria, General Motors, Honeywell.
A lot of things reporting earnings tomorrow morning, tomorrow after the close.
So definitely keep an eye on those ones.
And the macro data points start to pick up pretty aggressively tomorrow as well.
We have jolts, job openings, 10 a.m. Eastern.
That's one that a lot of the market ends up watching,
other retail inventories and stuff in the morning.
So, yeah, definitely watching those directions.
And I saw that I think Lutnick was going to be on CNBC tomorrow.
And I know the crowd loves it when he speaks.
So I'm sure that one will be on watch.
So F5, the first network edge company to report.
These guys make load balancers, among other things.
Revenue,
$731 million.
Gross margin,
80.7% up from 79.3%.
Non-GAAP margin,
83%. Man, these guys have
some serious margin.
GAAP
diluted EPS was 2.48 versus 2.33 expected so that's a beat
yeah i don't have more details i will come back on yeah you're good well you can dig in if you
find anything extra interesting we can move on from some of those ones yeah it's
dumping hard down 5% for anyone who doesn't know by the way fart coin now
1 billion dollar market cap larger than 70% of US listen stocks I'm also seeing
this Pelosi act thing going around which I feel like based on the name
they're probably not going to be able to get it through, but it is a bill to try and stop
people from senators, Congress people from being able to trade stocks.
We'll see if that one ends up going through.
My guess would be no.
Democrats will not vote for that.
Well, if no Democrats vote for it, would it go through?
Or is this one of those ones where you need more than a majority?
It's a Senate bill.
Okay.
So, yeah, I think it's just kind of some PR stuff,
but you never know.
We have a stock talk.
If I can kind of pull you into it quickly.
We have a lot of macro data points. We have a lot of earnings coming up this week for example wednesday we have gdp and pce
you know thursday we have the initial jobless claims friday we have nfp unemployment rate
stuff like that we have four mag sevens reporting earnings you have so many different directions is
there like i don't know something you're watching more than some of the others is there something the analysts have been kind of pricing on talking about i saw an hsbc downgrade
of who is that oh nova nordis can eli lily or eli lily downgrade nova nordis share bring down
nxp semiconductors announced ceo kurt sievers to retire at the end of 2025 uh so nxpi semi uh
ceo is leaving bs doc top what are you watching this week more have there
been any analyst commentary about kind of just some of the more important events you know in a
very busy week um not really i mean there were some downgrades this morning but that's been
pretty par for the course lately there's been a lot of analyst downgrading stocks and with respect
to the price changes um that happens pretty frequently on the street.
On Biogen, I think you're talking about Biogen and Eli Lilly this morning from HSBC.
Those are pretty aggressive notes to the downside.
HSBC cut their Eli Lilly price target to 700 from from 1150 which is a pretty big cut they um
are looking at the premium that the glp1 stocks are trading at and they're basically making the
argument that um the premium is no longer justified this is biofarmer sector of premium of 1%, earlier 0%, ESG premium of 1%, earlier 1%.
By earlier, they mean prior quarters.
And a beta of 0.57, our target price of USD 700, implies downside of 15%.
We downgrade the stock to reduce from buy as we think shares are priced for perfection and potential for disappointment can be high, not only for Eli Lilly, but for all GLP one related names. Um, they think growth
expectations have become too inflated on a five-year basis. Um, I will also say HSBC was one
of the first to call the data center thematic for being inflated before, um, those stocks started
coming down, but I digress that's a separate point but
anyway um they also digrated by downgraded biogen on the same principle they think um the company
their buy thesis originally on biogen they had a 342 target keep in mind and a buy rating um that's
analyst rajesh kumar from hsbc but he's cutting it to hold and cutting his price target well more than in half
from 342 down to 118 so brutal price cut on biogen from him but uh he said our buy thesis was based
on a return to mid single digit growth and the company's two growth drivers we now view both
growth drivers with underwhelming results and think that a single-digit, mid-to-single-digit return is unlikely for Biogen.
We adjust sales trajectories down accordingly.
This leaves us with a marginally positive growth of 1% from 2027E, albeit with some margin progression.
We do not expect this to justify the current multiple.
Pipeline readouts are mainly in the medium term and carry above average risk associated with alzheimer's for the stock to perform we believe management needs to successfully deploy
capital to revive growth um so yeah very very aggressive downside notes from hsbc on biotech
today outside of that there wasn't much i mean analysts are not going to comment on i know you
asked what economic data analysts are not going to comment on economic data, generally speaking, ahead of the data. They'll comment on it after, but not ahead
of the data. So yeah, there is some interesting economic data this week. I do think it'll
matter. There have been points in the cycle where economic data has not really mattered
because there's been some larger macro backdrop that has prevented the market from responding or reacting to those things.
We're in an environment now where I think incremental economic data matters a lot,
probably the most that it has in the entirety of the cycle.
So, yeah, JOLTS matters tomorrow.
ADP numbers probably matter on Wednesday.
We have preliminary GDP numbers for the quarter on Wednesday as well. Obviously,
GDP comes in three versions. You get the preliminary, then the revised, and the final.
But as far as market reactions go, it's generally to the preliminary numbers. So you have those
Wednesday morning as well. And then you end the week out with a bunch of more jobs data. You got
initial jobless games Thursday, non-farm payrolls Friday.
You have three or two manufacturing PMI indexes,
ISM and SMP on Thursday.
So yeah, we're going to get manufactured data.
We're going to get jobs data.
We're going to get GDP data.
That's good data to get at this point.
So we'll see.
Again, I don't expect anything dramatic in the real data.
And again, people need to distinguish between the real data and the survey data.
I don't expect dramatic changes in the real data. Maybe some modest misses,
maybe some compensation numbers where you see efforts to compensate or front run tariffs.
You might see some of that, but I think most of the weakness
is going to be in the soft data.
That's just my line of thinking right now,
but we'll see.
Obviously, if you pair the soft data weakness
with some hard data misses,
it's not going to be great.
Probably get some downside
in the markets off of that.
So yeah, tons of important stuff this week.
This is a week where I'm probably
not going to get a lot of sleep.
I'll certainly be up early looking at this data
and looking at all the analyst commentary too.
So, yeah, I'm sure we'll have some interesting stuff to talk about,
but that pretty much covers it for today.
I didn't see anything else that was interesting.
what's up bothy so beset 8 30 a.m press and then lutnik at 2 p.m in conjunction with
What's up, Bolfi?
trump's hundredth day in office quote-unquote celebration if there's you know any possibility
to like game it or you know try to have some sort of back pocket announcement
i feel like tomorrow would be the day especially on the back of those two things so i'm kind of
curious to see how they play it or maybe it's nothing and i'm just kind of like looking too
far into it right but 100 100 day celebration with like some sort of you know here's a here's
here's an agreement that we have right would be would be, you know, that would kind of press things a little bit ahead
of some of the other stuff.
Isn't Besant, or Besant, however you pronounce it, I've heard both ways,
doing a conjunction with Levitt tomorrow, like the White House press secretary?
I'm not sure.
I just know that it's at 8.30 a.m.
and then Lutnick.
Yeah, it is in conjunction with the press secretary.
Just like she did today with Tom Holman, yeah.
All right, cool.
So, I don't know.
I feel like if there's ever a time to see another one of those weird
poster boards with
stats that, you know,
they want to tout, tomorrow might
be the day.
Alright,
I got a question. Today is
the Canadian elections.
Does Canada matter?
That is a joke of a question,
but due to Canadian elections,
it seems like they're going in a direction where it's going to be a
combative person.
And maybe some of the commentary around Trump has been
kind of changed a little bit
over
negotiations that might have to come with Mark Carney
and the side that doesn't like him.
Who was losing before.
Yeah, I think it
matters based on how they,
you know,
how hawkish or aggressive they're going to be.
And I think that the populist rhetoric and the,
you know,
the defensive tone kind of is winning over.
And if that does,
then it does matter because if,
if you get someone that sinks their teeth into it and just doesn't want to
let go and it's just going to be like, okay, like okay cool i'm gonna go tiff or tap for you then all this stuff kind
of gets pushed out and then it really does matter um if you get someone that's really
hawkish they want to like kind of set a tone they have uh you know an ability with with the power
grade in the northeast to really like if they ever really wanted to you know be a prick for lack of a better term
they could right so i think it does matter based on tone based on what they're able to say and what
their uh you know what their message will be on day one um and then how they actually deal with
the administration.
Talk, talk, I saw a thumbs up.
You think the Canadian elections have any impact here?
I'm sure, I don't know.
The Canadian economy doesn't really matter. But the Canadian stance on negotiating does matter.
The Canadian stance on negotiating does matter.
So, I think insofar as there is a distinction between the way Carney and Pollyev are going to handle U.S. tariffs, I think that matters.
but yeah, I mean, that's all I would say on that. I don't think there's anything,
But, yeah, I mean, that's all I would say on that.
I don't think there's any kind of dramatic, like, you know, second and third order impacts from who
is prime minister of Canada. Canada is a pretty insignificant economy on the grand scheme of
things. Um, when it comes to us though, there are energy implications and there are automobile
industry implications. Those two in particular, um two in particular should be areas of focus with our relationship with Canada.
And those areas will be impacted.
Auto production and energy security, especially for the northern United States, will be impacted in the short term.
We can compensate.
The United States is in a position to compensate, especially on the energy side, on the short term. We can compensate. The United States is in a position to compensate,
especially on the energy side.
On the automotive side, I'm not so sure.
I think, you know, in conjunction with Mexico tariffs,
it makes it really, really difficult for the automotive industry to operate.
I actually think the automotive industry is maybe at the highest risk
out of all industries where we stand today with regard to tariffs.
That's an entirely separate conversation. We could talk about that later. But
yeah, I think the only thing that really matters with the Canadian elections is how they're going
to deal with the tariffs. And if they can find a way to bring themselves to the negotiating table,
great. Although if you look at Trump's comments this morning, it doesn't seem like he wants to negotiate.
It seems like he just wants it to be the 51st state.
So I don't know.
We'll see.
But, yeah, I think two parts to your question.
Part A, Canadian economy, grand scheme of things doesn't really matter.
But with respect to energy and automobiles, it matters to us.
And so that's where I'd be focused.
I think it's pretty clear the distinction, though.
You know, Polyev seems a little bit more aggressive and like Canada first sort of stance and, you know, the conservative stance.
And then, you know, Carney is a little more middle of the road, you know, status quo.
Let's do things how we've been doing them sort of stance.
So as of right now, I think Kearney has like overwhelming odds to win.
I don't know what the results have been so far today.
I haven't been paying much attention, but yeah,
we'll react to that after it happens.
But that's kind of my view on Canada.
Yeah, there's some fair points there.
I didn't see too many other news stories today that really was catching my eye.
I'll get a lot of stuff coming out here on that like 8.30, 9 a.m. Eastern point.
There was Germany's incoming Chancellor Friedrich Mertz,
who said this morning after this commentary was interesting that he'll suggest to the United States
a return to zero on all tariffs.
I don't know if he has the power to do that as a part of the European Union,
but I thought that commentary was a little bit interesting this morning.
And best in talking this morning, kind of talking about many of the whatever.
But the one was we could be having a trade, the first trade deal signed this week or next week.
A lot of the memes were talking, or the week after or whatever.
I don't know.
There just wasn't as much...
I don't know.
It wasn't as crazy of a whipsaw-y day
when you look at the stock market.
Maybe it's the other way.
I don't know what headline we got out around 1.30.
Do you remember what headline we got out around 1.30
that kind of started a trend higher?
I don't think it was really a headline.
Is market movement fair?
It was just, we had some support.
We were getting a little overextended on the trend down
and shorts were covering.
That's what I noticed anyway.
Sock Talk, I don't know if you saw anything different.
I didn't see any actual headlines
really throughout the entire day.
Yeah, it was pretty quiet today from a headline basis.
I mean, in the morning there was a
lot but not intraday
were there any more numbers that came out that we didn't talk about yet
uh i don't think there's anything much that this group would be interested in uh i was looking for uh new core i've not seen
that yet let me see let me check what time earnings hub says to expect the new core numbers
yeah new code is here 4 30 it says right now it should be coming out. No, it's here.
Interesting.
So $166 million.
Let me pull up what they're supposed to make.
Let me see.
They were supposed to make $0.68.
What did they make? $0.69.
So a tiny bit
nice so sales revenue is below consensus 7.17 versus 7.23 expected
so uh so they are calling out, lower average selling prices and margin pressure
in key segments.
Um, let's see.
That is it.
Um, you can dig in here, have this look into that new core report for me and I'll come
right back over to you.
Um, that makes sense.
Stock talk. I want to come over to you. Yeah, that makes sense.
Stock talk.
I want to come over to you. I was also looking at some Michael Wilson commentary this morning.
Mr. Morgan Stanley, who a lot of people know him,
will probably know him as a bear here.
But the note that I saw this morning was talking about, you know,
weakening US dollar being good for stocks and US equities outperforming
the international market off of that one.
Did you see that note?
Do you have any thoughts on Michael Wilson's commentary?
Was there any deeper kind of meaning?
Did I give off the general point there,
or what else would you add to the point before?
I mean, that's pretty much what he said.
He said basically that a weakening dollar,
especially for U.S. international businesses,
is going to lead to outperformance for U.S. stocks versus international. He didn't really necessarily take a bullish view on U.S. stocks,
just an outperformance view, which isn't necessarily the same thing. Sometimes,
you know, you can be advocating for a basket of stocks to go down less than their peers.
If that's the argument he's making, I think maybe you can make the argument. The issue with what he's saying, I think, is that he is forgetting to pair a decline in the dollar with what's happening in the rest of the asset classes.
The reason the declining dollar has been significant to people, at least in the prior month, and I'm not talking about this on an intraday or intraweek basis because the correlation does not hold every day.
But over a one-month basis, and this is as of last week, I haven't gone to look at the data yet, but as of last week on a one-month basis, we had seen 10% decline in the S&P 500, 5% decline in the dollar index, and a 10 bps push up in the 10-year
yield. Obviously, things have changed a little bit since then, but that scenario has not been
shown for decades. And so that's like a sell America scenario, essentially, where people
are dumping the dollar, dumping bonds and dumping stocks simultaneously.
In that type of environment, that's not bullish for America.
In a vacuum, if the dollar goes down, like if we were just doing like, I don't know, an economics class,
and we were like, hey, in a vacuum, if the dollar goes down, is that good for U.S. stocks? Yes, you can make that argument, but it's not happening in a vacuum.
And so that would be my counterargument to the points he made.
I have liked his commentary in the past.
Obviously, I was a big critic of his during the bull run when he was just being, in my view, far too pessimistic.
But I don't know.
He's been on the wrong side of the ball for the better part of seven years now.
So maybe even almost eight years.
So I wouldn't necessarily tie my pony to his carriage, if you will.
I wouldn't take a ton of weight from his commentary, at least personally.
But I do think there are contextual issues with the argument he's making is what I'll say.
Monotiv, I want to quickly circle back to you,
see if you had anything on the new core earnings.
Yeah, so it was a small beat on earnings,
a small miss on
revenue and they
are more positive
about the rest of the year.
That's the summary.
He'll definitely
be one to watch.
Michael Wilson though
definitely got a lot of
notoriety people enjoying him not liking
him around his kind of bear calls.
So it's always interesting to see when someone,
what they're known for being on one side,
coming on the other side of it.
And like you're saying,
I guess this isn't necessarily a bullish call,
more of a, hey, everywhere is going to be bad.
This might not just, you know,
might just not be great.
All is relative outperformance there.
So I don't know.
Want to watch though.
Appreciate the caller.
I do think Cargill's comments on,
Cargill CEO's comments this weekend on Brazil were interesting.
He said Brazil is the biggest beneficiary of the U S China trade war.
As a result of near shoring.
And you look at Latin American stocks in general,
look at their year to day performance,
look at the rest of the sectors of the world. and I think the market's saying that pretty loudly.
Latin America is outperforming.
And I think with good cause, you know, more and more stuff that gets reshored and nearshored, South America benefits from a lot of that.
So I did think Cargill CEO's comments were interesting.
Logical.
I know that's a theme that you're talking about too
yeah um you know I've been long Brazil and Colombia I think the Brazil election is in late
26 I think Colombia election is also sometime in 26 I think it's Chile this year we already had
Ecuador obviously we had Argentina with Millay a year ago or so or
two years now. So, yeah, I mean, it looks like there's like this political shift happening to
the right wing parties in these various countries, which is generally good for their economies and
getting a more stable currency, which I think has been a big issue, is that like the inflation in
these countries have been insane. And so, yeah, it's a very favorable backdrop.
Latin America is out of the tariff headlines.
They're not in all this drama.
And yeah, you could call them a tariff winner.
I've been saying that on our podcast,
Investing with the Boys for probably months now.
I mean, obviously not the tariff winner part,
but Latin America in general with the election ship.
But, you know, ever since we got those numbers that Trump presented on Liberation Day,
it looked like Latin America was definitely the winner from, I mean, or like the smallest loser,
I guess you could say from the tariff stuff. So yeah, and those stocks are really cheap.
I continue to trim them into strength because some of these stocks are now up 50 year
to date like stoneco which is a financials in brazil pag seguro which is a fintech company i
mean go look at those charts they look like the opposite of um any u.s stock that you're interested
in just go compare these stocks are above all moving averages and if anything are now getting
a little bit too extended overextended to the upside which is why i've been kind of trimming a little bit into
strength uh new bank also reclaimed like most of their moving averages so those are three fintechs
that i'm playing in uh brazil i think what's really key to remember is just that like you
know a lot of these other countries when you invest invest ex-US, it's not like investing in US. US has all these great tech companies.
You don't really get tech in a lot of these other countries.
You know, a lot of them are going to get like, I don't know, energy or commodities or some sort of industrials.
Or I think financials is kind of like the easiest way to play a strengthening economy.
And without thinking too hard about it, especially when a lot of these stocks again are trading a very reasonable forward multiples like stoneco is still trading at like
i don't know five six times next 12 month earnings we're talking gap net earnings so
um it's very cheap uh in columbia i'm long uh bank of columbia um you know they're doing a lot of
real estate development in the major cities there so yeah i mean i just think that they're doing a lot of real estate development in the major cities there. So yeah,
I mean, I just think that they're going to just continue, you know, expanding balance sheets,
loan lending, more money, more business activity, just a very different environment there right now
than what we're seeing in the U S and the valuations you're starting with are really cheap.
And obviously they're always going to trade at a discount because nobody cares enough. It's not a crowded trade. No one cares to bid these things up. But
even if they got a little bit, just some sort of re-rating based on sentiment shift, I think
that's enough. And you also have the accelerating fundamentals. So it's kind of that twin engine.
Yeah. I don't know if people read finance books at all. There's one good book by Chris Mayer.
you know, read finance books at all. There's one good book by Chris Mayer. He's written
100 Baggers, which sounds like a meme, but it's not. He basically studied a lot of like all stocks
that, you know, in the last 30 years or so have hit 100 times return. It's a very simple and easy
book to read. You know, it just talks about how like, you know, if you have like good return on
equity year in, year out, you have good ROIC
return on invested capital, you end up getting very nice returns. But he coins a term called
the twin engine. And that's typically when you get earnings growth and you start from a low
valuation. So as the multiple expands, that's the multiplier effect on top of the earnings growth
that you're getting on an equity. So I think that's kind of what you're getting in some of these different countries right now is
you're getting earnings growth uh and you're starting from a low multiple and as the sentiment
ships you should start to see a re-rating and that gives you the multiplier effect um yeah i
think joel greenblatt you know if you've ever read the little book of investing by him he drives
home the idea of like a very simple formula to outperforming and picking individual stocks is find again, same concept, you know, high return on invested capital or high earnings growth and low earnings multiple.
If you get those two things right, the rest kind of works itself out typically.
out typically.
What's the opposite side of this?
What's the possible, what are kind of the risks in this kind of trade that we see going
on right now in the Latin America area?
Is it around currency?
Is it around possible that, hey, we have no idea what's happening in this current form
of tariffs would be good for Latin America, but we don't know what's going to actually
end up happening?
Dr. Talk, I don't know if
you're thinking that maybe we can go back to logical
on that one. Is there like a
possible negative that
you're seeing or like a risk? I mean, any
broad economic negatives
would apply to South America too, right?
Like if we get a global recession,
South America is not going to be immune
to that. So
yeah, I would say the risks there are the same risks that there are to the global economy.
You know, if like, look, is Brazil a beneficiary of the trade to the extent that Brazil is a developing economy that is growing rapidly?
It's one of the premier economies, if not the premier economy in South
America. And as a consequence of that, they see volume, economic volume benefits from tariffs.
That's the simple ABC thinking. That's why Brazil benefits. Now, what are the risks? Well,
the risks are the global economy enters a recession and Brazil is a part of that.
That's the risk. yeah i'd echo that
i would see the risks as identical to the risks of the global economy
yeah it's hard for like a you know country specific risks because it feels like again
these stocks are trading at extremely low multiples because there has been a lot of
pessimism or i should say low optimism for the outlooks. And that's why these trade at single digit
multiples. So it's like, what is the risk? I don't know. Can something that trades at six
times earnings head down to two or three? I mean, maybe, right? But you're kind of already starting
at a pretty low floor. And I would basically just say that typically the multiple that, you know, investors in the market attribute
to a stock is directly like correlated with the sentiment around that stock. So I would say the
sentiment is already, it's coming off of a very low base here. Whereas if you look at like, you
know, US equities, you're at a much higher premium.
So I'll ask a question here.
GDP on Wednesday, NFP on Friday.
My general stance or belief right now is the market does not really care that much about current data with the fact that it could look very differently as trade deals are made,
if they are made or when they are made.
What are your thoughts around that?
As we get GDP, a lot of people looking into GDP on Wednesday, looking into the jobs number
on Friday.
Do you think the market really cares that much about them?
I mean, to a certain extent, they will, of course.
But yeah, monitoring the current conditions is one thing, but if those
could look much differently, what are your thoughts around that? Were you asking me? Yes, sir.
Okay. Yeah. So look, I think there's two scenarios here. Scenario one is the market is calling bluff on the tariffs being what they are today which is
what we talked about earlier right this idea that like the reason the markets aren't down more or
the reason they've recovered is because they don't believe these tariffs will remain in place that's
scenario one but there's an alternate scenario there's an alternate scenario where we've seen stabilization in the markets because people are unsure about the real economic impact.
Now, I don't know how to equate the probability between those two options because I can't go and interview every market participant and tell them why I've stopped.
Ask them why stocks have stabilized right but I
think it's somewhere in between I think most camps who are either neutral or bullish on the market
fall in one of those two categories they either feel the tariffs are unrealistic and won't stay
as a consequence of that or they're waiting to see what the actual economic impact will be from those tariffs. So I think insofar
as you're in the second camp, if you're in that camp that says, well, I want to see a GDP impact,
I want to see a job data impact before I panic, then I think the economic data is relevant to you.
I think if you're in the cohort where you think the tariffs are a bluff, then I think you're more
likely to shrug off the economic data because you're going to say, well, this is all temporary because the tariffs are
going to come off. So that'd be my simple answer to your question. I think if you fall into the
camp of, I want to see the data, then it can change your opinion. And in some cases, it can
turn buyers into sellers and vice versa. But yeah, I think it does matter.
Just flat out, I think it does matter because it affects that second camp so much.
It affects the opinion of that second camp so much.
Monodiv, what's up?
Now, I was going to say that, you know, the market will care because the Fed will care.
All of this data is something the Fed takes into account.
So, you know, certainly, you know, the market has to care about it because, you know, we're not going to hear any Fed speakers.
We're in the Fed blackout here.
So I think the market will have to pay attention to that data.
market will have to pay attention to that data.
Monad, do you think the Fed is kind of in a, like just a holding pattern right now?
I mean, don't they have an easy out to just sit around and do nothing?
Well, if, if the data is not terribly changed, then it's an easy out.
They have to do nothing.
But if you see a reduction in economic activity and a worsening job situation and Joel's falling off,
it's one of my pet peeves that even talking about dual state as a waste of time, but setting that aside, if the economic data is not falling off the cliff, that's going to just sit tight.
is if the economic data is starting to break apart or at least there's more than a doubt that we might have topped and things are starting to fall apart,
then you're going to have almost daily pressure on them to consider bringing rates down.
So we have to see. At least let's get through tomorrow to see you know um what is what what is
the level of pressure that's going to be on on on feds heads and they meet my guess is we're going
to see you know employment numbers starting to look go in the wrong direction certainly if nothing
more than that and that's probably going to start a huge amount of noise already but if we if we really if we
really see Joel's data which I don't expect it to change much but if we see job openings fall
off the cliff then we've got a huge problem then you know that's going to quickly be followed by
uh consumer sentiment and the rest of it will fall in place, and the Fed might be forced to act.
I don't know that happens.
Again, right, Joel's data is very stale,
which is what I've been calling out for the better part of two years now.
It's not really any reflection of active hiring.
I think there is enough active hiring data out there.
I don't know why we even track Joel's.
It's just a meaningless data.
And I mean, companies don't really refresh open positions.
They just leave it alone.
There's rarely an update made once a quarter, let alone more frequently.
But if you really look at active hires versus Joel's, there's a massive difference.
if you really look at active hires versus JOLs,
there's a massive difference.
You'll really see a huge sentiment shift
if you replace JOLs data with active hiring data,
because that shows you that companies are not as,
you know, the open positions are a fraction
of what JOLs is telling you as, you know,
as a show of economic strength.
It's just not there.
So that's my take.
I think we will start seeing some pressure build on Fed.
If they're going to stand pat, this is the last meeting
where they will have data to stand pat.
And I think we see significant cracks after this meeting.
Yeah, they're definitely in an interesting position here coming up is what we'll call
President Trump working on larger trade deals, not just ones involving tariffs is what Fox
business is saying right now
what what does that mean i don't know uh i want to see the full headline on it that's just kind
of a squawk out of this one let me see if i can find exactly where that's from but it sounds like
just they want to have stuff outside of tariffs just on the discussion. Just something we kind of already knew.
He also just hosted the Super Bowl champion
Philadelphia Eagles at the White House.
I was just watching that.
He didn't say anything.
Great team.
Great team.
Good win.
Big fan of the Tush Push.
They need to keep it in the game
just because you're really good at something.
I'd actually think every
play should be the Tush Push.
Alright, we got about 10 minutes left on the spaces.
Obviously a lot of the stuff coming up later in this week
I think is going to be the bigger events.
We have a hard cut off at 5pm Easternm. Eastern anyway. Like we've been talking about
here, we have four, five, six, whatever it is, major data points coming up this week. You throw
on top of that, the fact that we have earnings from four out of seven of the Mag7 and hundreds
of other companies. If you own a portfolio of a lot of names, there's probably multiple,
multiple of them reporting earnings today. Just tomorrow, before the stock market opens, again, we have Coca-Cola, SoFi, PayPal,
Spotify, Pfizer, UPS, Altria, General Motors, Honeywell, and more. Shift4, Royal Caribbean,
Hilton, Sherwin-Williams, et cetera. All of these names report earnings just tomorrow morning. So
just tomorrow morning.
So keep an eye on a lot of those.
keep an eye on a lot of those. And then tomorrow after the close, we have Starbucks, Visa,
And then tomorrow after the close,
we have Starbucks, Visa, Bookings,
Snapchat, First Solar, et cetera.
So a lot of names,
a lot of commentary will be given around,
you know, what's happening in the real world,
actually, what's up?
What's the, outside of Apple,
what's the one company that reports this week
you're most looking forward to?
Robinhood?
I was looking forward to,
well, I'm going to be,
like last quarter,
I actually did get to ask a
question and Robin Hood earnings call. They're gonna be doing that again this one. So if you
have any questions you want me to ask the team. Let me know. So that's one that I'm very much
excited for just because I'm gonna get to ask a question on the live earnings call. That was
definitely good for me. I own Mike meta. I don't know a bunch of these names but meta is definitely
the one up there that I'm seeing so far that I think I would classify here at the top. I'm very intrigued
on Eli Lilly. HSBC came out with their report the same week Eli Lilly is about to be reporting
earnings. So that's one that, you know, I own a share or two of it's on a watch list for me.
I don't know if it's necessarily something I'm going into running right now, running and buying
right now, but that's one that I'll be watching. The big ones. Amazon, we also
have coming. Airbnb is one that's exciting
for me.
Meta, Hood.
I'm intrigued to see how Visa goes, but I'm not going to make
too much movement off of it.
And then PayPal tomorrow morning.
I'm really interested in Robinhood's prediction markets.
I want to know how much revenue they're generating off of this.
They seem like they've been a hit.
I think they're doing well.
I am very curious to see
how that one has gone.
And what are you watching
for the rest of the week
in this market, though?
Anything standing out?
I mean, we're going to get
a ton of data thrown at us.
And I mean,
I guess you could say starting tomorrow, but starting Wednesday, we're going to get a ton of data thrown at us. And I mean, I guess you could say starting tomorrow, but starting Wednesday, we're going
to get so much data thrown at us from Wednesday through Friday morning.
I don't know.
I'm kind of in a sit and wait.
And then at any point, you know, what kind of headlines are coming next?
It's almost been too quiet.
Like, I assume that we would kind of just float higher.
I think I said that about a week ago.
We just kind of float higher and
that's kind of what we're doing and we're the market's getting less and less reactive to some
of these headlines kind of that news exhaustion several on here have mentioned but at some point
you got to feel like at least one or two deals will be announced of some type.
Like, who knows what those look like?
But I just feel like at some point, we're going to have to get something, right?
Whether it's EU, whether it's India, you know, who knows, Japan.
I just, I do think we're going to get something.
And there's no telling what the timing's going to be or if Trump's going to, you know,
give us a layup and tweet about it beforehand.
But yeah, that's kind of where I'm at.
I mean, the last week made a lot of sense to me.
And now we've come kind of full circle to where that has played out to.
So for me, I'm just kind of like, I don't know, I was looking today, I tweeted this a while ago.
Hedges are pretty cheap right now if you look uh you know you look out a little bit on on spying
qqq vix obviously has come back down into the mid-20s um you know if you are long or been long
i've been trimming out some of the gains um from from the dip buys that i was talking about
on the 4th and the 7th of april and i'm you And I'm looking around today and I'm going,
hey, some protection isn't,
it's not too expensive right now.
It's probably not a bad idea,
especially, I mean, today,
when we closed basically break even,
we went up four days in a row.
And it's a pretty sharp move.
And volatility is down.
I just feel like having some protection on there is still a good idea,
even though the setups in general are looking a little bit better across the market.
Several names obviously stronger than others.
I noticed that tech was very weak going into this morning.
As we were starting to sell off, I noticed Microsoft and NVIDIA very weak while
the market was trying to push higher off the open. And a lot of Mac 7 just were fairly weak.
Obviously, we turned around a little bit there in the back half of the session. But
the only other thing I did notice was the MOC again today, the market on close imbalance,
was the the MOC again today the market on close imbalance was very large by side
across the board and the individual names were a lot there were several mag 7
names on there and a video was a very large one Apple was on there there's a
couple others I can't remember off top of my head right now but it was there was
a lot of buying going on there at the end of the day today too so kind of an
interesting spot that we're at.
And I see Monitv's hand.
Go ahead, Monitv.
So just quickly.
So, you know, looking forward to Apple, right?
So tomorrow we have Corvo reporting.
Corvo gets just under half the revenue from Apple.
Apple is obviously their largest customer. So that should be a window into Apple
to see if there's anything in terms of hard surprise.
We already saw from Google search revenue,
there is still growth there.
So that's also a good sign for Apple.
So that might account for Apple's strength
in the last few sessions.
So just saying that nothing we've seen so far
suggests that Apple's going to fall
off the cliff. The only unknown, of course, is their China revenue. So.
Stock talk, how many new colors will we get from Apple earnings?
Oh, he would get stuck in the elevator right on that. Evan, you're saved.
Evan, you're saved.
Evan just dropped some revenue at Apple.
Only $60, though, because I have AppleCare.
I got the front and the back rice cream.
He upsold me to get the back of my phone fixed, too.
So good work there from the sales team.
Was it broken?
Like one small crack.
It was very usable.
I did not need to get the backs fixed,
but he was just like,
all right, you know.
Did you just make a rash?
I don't understand why you would fix the back of the phone.
Did it cost?
I mean, if it cost nothing.
He cost me an extra $30 to fix the back.
It was a little cracked,
and I just wanted my phone to have no cracks at that point
I was already there
And that's only because I had Apple care
Logical though anything you want to leave the people within the last three minutes of the spaces?
Yeah, I would say that none of us no one on this panel is smarter than the market
The market is a collective voting machine. You can decide to take
other sides of that bet. That's fine. But it's just important to be nimble in where we are right
now. We're not out of the woods yet. I think we've seen some constructive signs at this point.
Again, I'll reiterate some of what I was saying. It's like, I'm willing to
be reactive in this environment. Right now. I think it's shown me that it can still be constructive. Look, we had VIX over 60.
Typically that is a good buying opportunity. Doesn't mean we can't retest the lows. Doesn't
mean we can't even take out those lows. It just would be a very rare scenario given market history.
And I understand the implications of these tariffs, that they remain intact the way that
they've been described. I just have a hard time believing that at this point. So I'd rather wait for the incremental news that tells me,
oh no, this is very bad. And then I would try to get a lot more defensive. But if I'm able to buy
these stocks down 50, 60%, and in some cases even more, they're down versus two months ago.
And if the economy is able to just kind of, you know,
shrug this off, I still think that, you know, it is possible that we get probably a mild recession
for sure. But I think again, at 480, you potentially discounted that. And there's a
good post by Michael Batnick from a couple of weeks ago where he said, where he shows that markets typically bottom 10 to
13 months before EPS bottoms. And so the stock market is very forward looking. It was pricing
that. And again, it's like the stock market crashes, right? Like 20% plus from the highs,
you got to ask yourself, did any of the data change? No, it is forecasting that the data is
changing in the future months. So that's, I mean, that's kind of where we're at.
And I think that right now we're offsides in terms of sentiment and positioning, which
could feel more to the upside, barring no more detrimental news to the downside.
And again, if they reiterate that there's 50% tariffs on China and they're really firm
on that, I don't believe them.
But if they say that and that's the path forward,
yeah, of course, this market is dumping
and I'll be dumping a lot of longs along with it.
I just don't believe it right now.
Nice. Appreciate the logical.
Appreciate the squad.
Make sure you're following all the speakers up here.
We'll be back same time, same place.
If you're following the host, the space,
and the other people, you'll see it at the top of your
timeline. Appreciate everyone for joining in.
I know we've got a live conversation joining up here at the top.
Starting up at the top of the hour, right?
We sure do.
Appreciate everyone. Stock picks for the week
coming up in about 30
seconds by the time I close this out and
open up over on Wolf Financial. Appreciate you
having. Appreciate the whole crew. Make sure
you follow all the speakers, of course. We'll be back same time, same place tomorrow right here,
Stocks on Spaces. See you guys over on the Wolf Financial account in 22 seconds. . .
