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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Sept. 25, 2025 Duration: 2:04:15Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic market landscape, major tech players like Apple and Google are showcasing resilience and growth potential, while Intel and Oracle navigate challenges. Partnerships and strategic shifts are pivotal as companies adapt to evolving industry trends.
Full Transcription
All right, all right, all right.
What is that, everybody the delay is pretty quick
we got you unmuted here from the auto unmute
one two three four
it's seven seconds so it's way better than what it was
yeah we changed it we changed it
it's not 20 seconds so here's what ends up happening guys
apple amazon among companies probed by u.s senators interesting headline by bipartisan
senators we got a couple headlines coming out there was also an intel one that just crossed the
wire intel has approached taiwan semiconductor about a manufacturing partnership i guess intel
is going after everyone
but i want to see more into this amazon apple i'm going to dig into it then we'll actually look at
the around the market look at the reaction of apple it doesn't give a crap yeah no one cares
it's not gonna happen and also intel seems everyone and anyone can get a piece of intel
guys please take a plate piece of intel that seems to be what I'm hearing right now
Interesting times
Mike we relate to I guess we were kind of coming to think is during the spaces got any extra comments there
How we doing? I'm good. How are you? What'd you take off the open today this was a weird day
this was a weird day in the market it's you know we are in the middle of a i don't even know if i
want to call a pullback here we're in the middle of uh lethargic action a little bit of some profit
taking here so despite underneath the eight day but the 21 day, that's what we bounced off of today.
Right.
So we're kind of OK there.
When you look around the markets, not everything is selling Apple's highs in the day and trying to break out.
Right.
You have you have strength in some names still.
NVIDIA had a huge bounce.
It's not like everything is just selling and dumping here.
It's typically a tough week.
We talked about this last week.
Monday made it seem like it wasn't going to happen,
but that old adage of sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur.
And we're kind of seeing that here.
And, you know, for me today, it was not the – I didn't do a lot today.
I made two trades.
And they were both based off price action and flow.
Tesla shorted the puts out of the gate made some nice money there got out um when the that vitamin candle and the five minute chart
came way back more than it should and then i took nvidia to the long side on the way up and i'm
still sitting in apple calls from last week because the stock just looks so good like it wants to
break out to all-time highs and i i mean that i mean look how it's holding in here look how strong it is so you know we have to ask yourself you know how do you feel about this market i i am
not bearish on this market i i can't get bearish on this market this market is so strong you know
again since august i'm sorry since april the only time we closed under the 21 day was august 1st
on the spy that is one hell of a trend.
You're trying to fight that trend.
That's why in the first 15 minutes when we came into that area, I'm like, I'm not shorting anything here because it's just been too strong of a trend.
The market is that strong.
If you're looking for problems, you know, you can go out there and find them.
Consumer looks weak, you know, job numbers look weak and find them consumer looks weak you know job numbers look
weak but this market doesn't care you know like you said apple we just had that headline apple
just pushed a high of the day this market is complacent it doesn't care and so you know you
just kind of have to take that everything is with a grain of salt here and the market wants to go up
palantir had a nice big bounce back earlier today. Intel, new highs in the day now, well for that news now.
Intel wants everybody to take a piece of them.
That's because Intel can't do anything for themselves.
And I mean, money's not the solution for Intel.
Intel needs the right people there and they need to change a culture.
Same thing as Boeing.
So, I mean, you can funnel hundreds of billions of dollars to that company
and they will find a way to screw it up.
That's my honest answer best thing they could do would be divide their assets and sell off
and have other people take control of it because that's just how bad they are as a company at this
point that's sad for me to say that outside of that i'm sitting tight i haven't sold any
my long-term positions i thought about buying um more spy cues on video ibit and some other
names today that i already own and i just hesitated to say let's make sure this is actually over
do we have monotiv up here
Was I on mute or something?
was i on mute or something no no we heard you okay okay good
No, no.
We heard you, Mike.
Okay, good.
I appreciate you.
Brian, you got any thoughts on that?
Yeah.
Today's one of those days.
It's a very, very profitable day for chiropractors because there are people just twisting themselves into a pretzel who were hyperbolish yesterday that now claim that they saw this pullback coming and told everyone about it.
There is a lot of teeth gnashing.
There's a lot of – I mean Stock Talk posted this recently.
A pullback like this shows how many people are just so weak because I'm looking at my portfolio and it's down
like 1.3% and people are acting like it's Armageddon.
So I think what we're seeing is we're seeing a lot of the high flyers get hit, right?
We saw Oklo or Oklo was down 15% at some point today.
I think we saw IonQ, what's that other one, RKTA, whatever.
So a lot of high flyers are getting the air taken out
of them. But I mean, I don't really see anything yet that tells me this is anything more than just a
normal pullback. And will we get another leg down? Maybe. But honestly, we could get all the way down
to the 21, even down to the 50 EMA and still be in a really strong uptrend.
I think a 3% to 5% pullback, maybe even a 5% to 7% pullback would be healthy for the market.
I think it would set up some great entries on some names going into the end of the year.
Will we get that?
Probably not.
I mean, this market has taught people to come in and
buy um so yeah i'm kind of with mike it's like this today's action is neither fish nor foul it
does you know it's not a great up day but it's not a big down day it's just kind of a it's part of Part of the process.
Amen, brother.
You guys sized down on a day like today?
I mean, we got a giant... I mean...
He'd be getting an M forming.
We got power hour.
This is a fun time for something.
Maybe we got like a...
I don't know.
What if we get a giant wick up here?
You never know.
I don't know.
We still got a pretty busy time of day.
What did you guys end up doing today?
Was this a size up or size down day?
Just trade.
Make some money.
And then move on.
Today for me was a not do anything day.
Part of me wants to pick.
What I like to do, and I think this is great for new traders or people that are still trying to get their feet wet.
Like I don't think anyone should ever paper trade because I think the problem is that you remove the emotional part of the trading process.
And so you think you're going to act a certain way.
And then when you actually get money in the market, you do it a different way.
I think one thing you can do is trade very small.
Like you can trade like 50 shares, 100 shares, whatever.
Super small so that you can figure out what you're doing.
A variation that I like to do, and this is just – this is a hack for my own ADHD, is that I often won't pay attention to a stock unless I have some money.
I shouldn't say I won't pay attention to it.
I have watch lists obviously, but like I won't get that hyper focus that I need in a stock or a name
unless I've got a little skin in the game but I don't want to put too much skin in if I'm if it's
not set up so for example I took a little probing position in Amazon right now part of me says hey
I want to size that up a little bit but because we could get a bounce we could get a reactive
bounce tomorrow but I want to see Amazon firm
up a little bit before I would do that. So I'm waiting on that. So there's little things that
I'm just tempted to do here and there. I'll be honest, last week, and this is going to sound
like a humble brag, but it's not. Last week, I was worried that I had too much cash. I really did.
And so I put a little bit to work earlier in the week.
I still have an ASTS position, which is up still pretty good, but it's taking a hit today.
But yeah, I think today's the day where people right out of the gate, when we fell off a cliff this morning when the NASDAQ was down 300,
I think the people that sold there are going to, they're probably,
they probably panic sold. Not saying we won't go lower, but like I was just waiting to see,
okay, do we get a bounce? Do we stabilize? We've seen this pattern repeat a lot over the last six
or eight months where the first hour or two is pretty aggressive in selling. And then we stabilize
between the eight to eight 30 period here on the Pacific coast.
And we firm up and we start to go higher.
We kind of did that earlier in the day.
That failed.
But now as we're getting into the final hour,
the queues are just at yesterday's low.
They could go either way here.
So again, when it's a day like that, where it's kind of binary,
I don't want to do anything too big one way or the other, um, because I feel like I just don't have an edge.
So Monitiv, how you doing? I appreciate that conversation you guys are having there. Monitiv,
I want to maybe switch us up here a little bit. I think we don't get you on every day.
I wonder how you're feeling. Google's been one that I know you've covered a good bit in the past.
And I know maybe today we're down a little bit, but Google's had quite the run.
I don't know if you have any thoughts there.
No, I think it's come well into it.
It's taken out a lot of the discount that it was selling for.
lot of the discount that it was selling for now it's probably more fairly valued
than maybe any of the large tech so it's it's priced well I'm not gonna say it's
cheap anymore it certainly is not but it's priced well it's probably a very
defendable number here as long as the economy doesn't break down. So I'm very happy with my position. I'm not trimming
anymore yet. I will probably reconsider that as we get to the end of the year and, you know,
take some profits for, you know, year end. But other than that, I'm just, you know, I'm just
watching Google, not much. I have been very vocal about uh you know since
since their last earnings i've been very vocal about uh what i think of oracle i completely
flipped from the last earnings call or the earnings call before that where i've been extremely bullish
and uh you know i turned very negative on or. I just did not like anything that I saw there.
And I've been extremely vocal about it on Spaces.
And I called out that none of those numbers make sense.
Nothing that they claim they are going to do makes any financial sense.
It's just out there.
And I also called out that they were going to have to raise a shit ton of money, whether it's debt or dilution, I don't know.
And we saw the beginnings of that.
And we're not done.
It's very early season for Oracle dilution.
That said, I'm not saying it's going to go down to 175 or whatever the analysts called it today, one analyst called out today.
I'm just saying that that 350 is probably a ceiling.
It's not going to break anytime soon.
So I'm comfortable when it goes closer to that to short it and take 20, 15, $20 on the trade and then sit aside and wait.
I'm not playing it on the long side.
We'll wait for it to run back up again because people think that, you know, 14 times growth in cloud revenue is somehow going to pan out.
More than happy to take the other side of that trade when it goes back up closer to the 350.
So let's say about 330, 325, 330 or so, I'll shout it again.
Take a few bucks and then step aside and wait.
So that's been a trade that I've been doing multiple times here.
Other than that, I'm starting to, you know, spend time seeing...
What did you think of the Micron numbers from this week?
Okay, so that's a good thing.
I forgot talking about that.
So really solid numbers, really solid guidance,
and underneath it all, very good commentary
from the management.
I listened to the call, and I actually went back
and listened to the recording also just to make sure
I heard all the right things.
So a couple of things, you know, obviously, you know,
their data center products, they at least, you know, blurted out in one of the questions that they are for most part sold out for for 2026 or close to it.
That's positive.
They are obviously, you know, gaining margin every quarter, quarter over quarter, primarily because of the product mix moving to a higher margin data center and server products versus commodity DRAM, which they have, you know, de-emphasized or the entire industry has. So that's a good thing. So we should see a significant bump in their 2026
numbers and their guidance is showing that they're cheap right now. They are significantly
underpriced versus the rest of SMH in terms of multiples. And given that, you know, just
to take a Blackwell example, 60% of the cost of Blackwell,
and these numbers I'm quoting are from Dylan, from semi-analysis, 60% of the cost of a Blackwell
is memory. So they are making significant revenue and great margins on that. So it's not your DRAM industry of, you know, 15 years ago.
It's a very different story.
So there's no need for Micron to sell at a discount to the rest of SMH.
And I think just as I, you know, had this opinion with Google,
I think you're going to see, you know, you're going to see that move up.
You're going to see those multiples move back up.
I mean, obviously, that assumes that the market holds
and the CapEx doesn't take a crapper and start going down for data centers.
Did you start a position here?
I mean, we're moving lower off of it.
You sound excited.
I have a position.
I'll keep adding, yes.
I'm very comfortable doing that right now. That is assuming, you know, market holds and, you know,
we don't have a serious problem with data center. The risk is, you know, in just about a month,
you're going to start hearing from Mag7. So that could end the whole story very quickly. But,
end the whole story very quickly, but, you know, they're going to make anywhere from
$8 to $11 next year in 2026. You know, that takes them well below, you know, 20 PE forward,
right? It could be as little as 15 PE forward. So that is cheap, right? I mean, compared
to that to, you know, S&P PE, we're talking, you know, significant discount, right?
Almost 50, 60% discount to S&P number.
So I'm very comfortable with my position.
And at some point in time, it'll get to a point where I'm, you know, more comfortable
selling puts.
I don't know that yet, right?
I'm just waiting for this shakeout to sort itself out.
It's just been two few days after earnings.
So let's wait and see what happens next week.
But they did say that all of their numbers
are contingent on the CapEx guides,
staying where they are, right?
So if those numbers hold,
then, then, then micron is cheap. If those numbers don't hold, then maybe micron is fairly
valued rather than cheap. And, you know, maybe it's a place to hide if, if, if, you know,
rest of SMH goes down. So if we, if we get, if we get solid capex guides in about five weeks time we should get most
or six weeks time we should get all of them then you know micron might be heck of a trade.
Remember when you get data that's at the end of a reporting cycle, those covered periods, both in actual numbers and
in management commentary, that is not covered by the earlier reporters. So this is new information
on what has happened since the end of the quarter. So that's very valuable as long as the company is trustworthy and large
enough and the management is trustworthy. That is the freshest data you get of what is happening
since the large companies reported their quarter. So it is very important to weight that information
significantly towards, you know, where you want to, you know, peg the, you know,
the upcoming quarter. So, so to me, that's very important. I take very seriously the numbers from
the likes of Delavago, Micron, even Nvidia for that matter, that report later in the quarter,
because that tells me that, you know, even towards the end of a reporting,
standard reporting period for the entire S&P,
the commentary covers that period.
And if they are saying that they've not heard anything
from their customers about cancellations,
that tells me that nothing bad happened in Q3.
So that to me is very valuable
and I always pay a lot of attention to that.
Having said that, I'm just looking at preliminary and we are in the pre-announcement season
here so we should start seeing any terrible surprises start to roll out.
I don't expect anything from tech but it's always possible one of these days.
Hey look, the bottom of the expectations was the beginning of Q, Q,
or the end of Q2, meaning July.
So July was where the expectations for water were very low,
not just for Q2 numbers, but for Q3 and so on.
And they've started moving back up.
Just as an example, the expectation for Q3 earnings growth,
quarter over quarter, was 8%, and it's now moved to 8.6%.
Not a huge move, but the fact that it bottomed and started moving up, taking into account
the actual results for Q2 were so much higher than expectations.
And most of the guides were solid, if not very, very bullish.
So taking that into account, you know, we have bottomed on expectations and expectations
are starting to move up.
So you know, we'll see where we stand in two weeks from now or a week before, let's say
three weeks from now, a week before JPM.
That's most relevant to, you know, where to pet the expectations as a starting point. So of that, right, the biggest jump is in, where is this?
Give me a second.
I'm just trying to pull this up.
I'm struggling today.
So of the growth expectations, the biggest jump has been in technology and communication services,
obviously. Those two have been the biggest contributors to growth. So again, there are,
and I think consumer discretionary is slightly up also in terms of expectations.
Most of the others are just down.
Some a lot, some a little bit.
But here we go.
So the expectation for technology, which is most relevant to what people watch here most
of the time, was 17% earnings growth.
That has now gone up to 21 points,
so just under 22%.
The expectation for communication services
was 2.5%, 2.2%.
It's gone up to 5.5%.
Most of the others are actually all negative.
Financials are up a little bit from 8% to 11%.
The rest of the expectations are actually lower than they were at the beginning of July.
So we're just, I mean, this is early stages of data.
We'll take into account the pre-announcement season.
We'll take into account the late reports.
And like I said, in about three weeks' time, we should have a starting point for Q3.
So far, touch wood wood that looks good which also goes with the commentary I've been hearing
here from the previous speakers that you know there isn't enough data out there to tell
anybody to panic and sell everything out right that data is just not there yet.
Doesn't mean we we will not get some confirmation of that,
but we don't have any of that yet.
Anyway, that's what I see so far.
Again, a lot more work to do in the next three weeks,
so I actually have some data to start off.
Very nice, Mantov.
I appreciate you there.
Let's keep this conversation going.
Wolfie, let's keep this conversation going Wolfie
let's bring you
into it
what thoughts
do you have
on there
on what
Montev
was talking about
Google
Micron
talking a little bit
about the general
earnings season
we are less
than a month away
I mean
you're
people's thoughts
on Oracle too
because I
what's the
Oracle you know what let's circle in on that Montev is getting good I mean, you're... I have to do people's thoughts on Oracle, too, because I'm... What's the Oracle?
You know what?
Let's circle in on that.
Monty's getting good at the gaslighting.
You saw the Jeffries report, Monty?
Yes, I did.
And it's not just that.
Yesterday, Niles was...
He was, you know, he tiptoes around, you know, open criticism.
But in some, he said the same things.
Sorry, I said Jeffries.
I meant Rothschild Redburn.
But for people that did not see,
Rothschild Redburn put out a pretty damning report
this morning on Oracle.
And I tweeted an excerpt of it this morning.
I'll pin it at the top here for those
that might own oracle or be interested in reading it but they did a breakdown i i obviously can't
post the full report and post the images of it and stuff but they did a breakdown of um
their estimates of what oracle will actually receive in dollars like in Oracle's pocket from this mega
cloud computing announcement that they made on their earnings call and that the announcements
that have been made since then and Rothschild Redburn is basically saying bullshit that's
essentially the summary of the note so they did like a it was a pretty lengthy note but they
the summary of the note is they basically said bullshit a, it was a pretty lengthy note, but the summary of the note is they
basically said bullshit.
They're saying Oracle's five-year OCI revenue guide equates to roughly $60 billion in value
in our math, meaning the market is already completely priced in a risky blue sky scenario
that is unlikely to materialize.
While the market currently fixates on headline figures, we expect attention to shift toward
the underlying economics of the deal.
Combined with subdued non-IAS growth, which the market appears willing to overlook for now, this sets up meaningful downside risk for Oracle.
Consequently, we were launching coverage with a sell rating and a $175 price target.
And I don't know what that stock traded at today, but $175 is way below the current price.
Yeah, I mean, it traded $292 today. It was down five percent i think partially due to that note probably but uh obviously the market in general was weak today but um yeah i mean if they're
right that's a long way down i mean look a lot of setting aside the price target itself, a lot of what they said is
absolutely on point, right?
Leave that 135 price target alone.
But like I've been saying, there's a need for massive amount of capital raise.
Oracle is not the highest margin among the large caps and their margins in the rest of their business
is not that high to begin with and you're going to see margin compression further.
And much of their expectations of revenue growth is contingent on, you know, one customer who was
openly said during their last fundraise that they're going to lose 135 billion over
the next three years.
So we're talking, you know, your largest potential customer having to go borrow money to pay
anybody, right?
Because that's not being covered by their revenues.
And them continuing to grow to need that kind of capacity all of this is is based on so much supposition
that you know it almost looks like it was done to take away from the fact that the rest of the
numbers for blah at best and bad at worst for the real numbers of the quarter.
Wolfie, you an Oracle guy?
So, no.
I mean, I talked about it after they had their earnings.
It had been a pretty decent position
for me for the last six years.
I closed out the majority of it.
I was skeptical at the time.
That one in Avgo, I closed out
a lot of skeptical at the time. Mon one in avgo i closed out a lot of uh skeptical at the
time monitor was kind of gaslighting me there because we've had conversations about it in other
spaces and offline about how the numbers just the math doesn't math um you know basically you're
you get commitments but they're not actual sales until they're actual sales and then like where's
the money going to come from
and they have the tiktok thing so they have to raise capital for that so just like the math
doesn't really make sense currently it really kind of kind of prices in a lot so just kind of
like gaslighting me there a little bit but um for me the interesting part about the Oracle thing is there's a lot of, and I'm not suggesting
that they're the same, I'm not suggesting that they're the same place, you know, in
their history or the businesses or anything similar.
But just from a headline perspective, like a $200 billion deal, I think is what TikTok's
billion dollar deal I think is what TikTok's going for like I feel like maybe if if uh if
going for.
things start to be priced based off of actual sales not the potential for sales we could point
back to that 200 million dollar number kind of similar or 200 billion excuse me kind of similar
to how uh you know from a size of size perspective how we we view the AOL Time Warner thing.
Because, you know, I don't know at what point the TikTok story kind of slows just from a growth perspective.
There's also like TikTok's kind of, you know, low key, don't tell anybody,
but they're kind of like one of Oracle's biggest cloud customers.
So like, you know, maybe it's a good way to kind of suppress that.
I don't know.
But I'm kind of speculating a little bit here,
but I just don't see chasing it at this level.
I think a lot of stuff has to go right.
I think he said, I don't know,
was the number 190 stock talk on that report you're talking about?
So the price target, you said? about? So the price target you said?
Yeah, was the price target 195?
Okay, so 190 is your 200 day.
Just to kind of give you an idea of like how aggressive that move was on the back of earnings.
It was a lot.
I mean, there was two earnings reports where it was just like priced in pretty aggressively and kind of caught people by surprise.
For the size of the company, it's pretty but basically 35 above your 200 days so it's
extended so i'm not an oracle guy at this point in the game um i did you know i did talk about
yesterday and the day before how i was like uh i took a tactical short i wasn't looking for anything crazy not looking calling for not being
chicken little over here but i did take a tactical short i covered the majority of it was looking for
a retest down to that i said uh 56 80 level we undercut that um just briefly today but i was
looking for a test possibly the 20 day uh which basically we kind of got there today. I do think that there's a chance that this bounce that we got, maybe we get a
little bit more of a bounce, maybe go back to 6, 630. And then maybe we get some other kind of
spell, just kind of wash things out. Ideally, you know, from just from a trading perspective,
I'd love to see them kind of retest the 200 hour, which is kind of in
line with that 50 day, like 6,500 ish. I'd love to see that, but I don't know. Maybe I'm asking
for too much. I'm a little bit, you know, flatter than I have been the last few weeks, months,
whatever. I don't think that means that you go out and try to go full tilt,
full short everything.
But I do think that there's a little bit more caution than the last few
sessions. But that, that being said,
there's stuff that gets put on sale and stuff that comes back into support.
I took a position earlier in the week,
I think yesterday into Golar GLNG.
I like the setup. It's back to its 200 day basically if you can consolidate here kind of sets up for a potential you know retest
of that 44 prior high zone that kind of overshot i like that um i do think that you know some of
the mania for lack of a better word,
that we saw in some of these names,
it was mostly short squeezes. It wasn't anything crazy.
From the
quantum to the nuclear
to all that stuff
kind of got a little excessive.
Maybe got a little too far too fast
in the short term.
A lot of times,
I've talked about the last two sessions, the last two calls, but a lot of times when know i've talked about the last two sessions but less
calls but a lot of times when you see some of this stuff get pulled forward the way that it does you
see some of these things trade uh as aggressively above their 200 day as indexes or as uh as sectors
they kind of point to you know a possible mean reversion it's not anything crazy you don't it's not again not
to look for crashes or anything all that's over it's just like you know if you're a little over
levered you know reduce your leverage kind of thing um but yeah outside of that there's there's
there's other things that you know that happen where you know if you can if you read the right
thing or if you look at the right thing,
I think it's like more stock-tocks game,
trying to find catalysts.
But one today was Marvell.
Marvell had an accelerated buyback
that was supposed to take place during the session today.
And either the Barron's article was lying
or misrepresenting it or was just fortunate.
But take a look at that chart midday.
Kind of took off.
Once it broke out of $79, $80, just kind of went up and to the right.
Was fortunate enough to be on the positive side of that. know national security defensive you know pseudo socialist government buys of some of these
companies like take a look at mp today bounced aggressively uh a couple days ago when we were
on here lac got the spark uh i took a position on the back of that headline i also took a position
in alb it'll be kind of like poking its head a little bit looks
looks pretty decent if it could if for alb specifically they could kind of press through
the 87 and a half level probably don't really have much uh much resistance in the way
between that that point and like 95 96 bucks which is in line with the downtrend 100 week etc
so there's stuff like that's tactical the um that kind of set up um i just don't want me personally
i don't want to be in you know the overcrowded stuff at this point like currently you know
maybe in a week that changes once we kind
of get out of this like little seasonality period, get some of this data stuff out the way and people
need to reposition ahead of earnings, which is kind of what the question was originally.
You know, typically I've noticed that before the earnings happen, we either get a performance chase
into it, not performance chase, we either get a positioning chase into these prints and it's like up into the right and then you know the a lot of the reports will come in line or slight beats or
whatever but the reaction won't really meet the expected and just kind of turns into a premium
sell events or we get something that kind of rattles the cages a little bit and people kind
of freak out and gives you an opportunity for, you know,
positioning to the long side. So if you go back to the extreme of that in April, right, that was
the extreme, we had, you know, the extreme headlines, extreme fear, extreme stuff like that.
And if you remember, Meta and Microsoft specifically kicked us off, and we had like really aggressive
moves on the back of it. So I don't don't know which basket we'll fall into this time around
but i'm you know kind of cautiously optimistic before that until we get some of this data and
some seasonality out the way but the last thing i'll say is you know oil in early september some
of the oil names outperformed especially refining names uh they've outperformed early September.
A lot of these names that were doing pretty solid
back during that stretch,
they broke out of these major downtrends
and they started to consolidate above moving averages
that are basically playing catch up.
Now, I don't know what camp everybody falls into,
but I will say that if people were pricing a recession
or like people were expecting some sort of recessionary stuff
and we don't necessarily get one
and maybe we're going to try to run things hot,
then some of these like inflation
bets or these inflation hedges, oil, for example, being one of them might do well,
especially if they can consolidate here and kind of, you know, people start to position that way.
One note in conjunction with that is, you know, some of these gold miners have done really well in part
because of how quote unquote cheap their input cost in oil is and they're very extended i talked
about that yesterday and did before i talked to you in the stat they're as extended as they've been
since the coming out of the great financial crisis and then back in I think 2016 when they came out of a bear
market so those were the last two times that we got that they got that extended to the to the
bullish side and all that was back then was a short squeeze right but here today and they've
run pretty aggressively they've been you know one of the really bright spots in the bull market this
year so you know they're pretty extended above the 200 day.
If you get any kind of like new reversion to the downside,
I could see a situation where you get like miners sell a little bit and you
get some of these oil and oil derivative names kind of like light up a little
bit and just kind of get this performance for the next few weeks,
months, whatever. So that's mostly what I'm watching.
I am watching your Apple to kind of hold things together, you know, mark it down, bid Apple,
make sure it doesn't like fall off a cliff. And yeah, that's pretty much it for me as far as the
diatribe goes. If you have any questions, happy to answer.
Hit me with the nice thing at the end.
Smart man, smart man. I like it.
Apple is looking pretty good today.
Just saying.
Less than $5 from all-time highs.
Yeah, it's in line with what we were talking about earlier in the week.
They rotate out of certain names and they bid other names.
Apple's the flavor of the day.
L.U. is the flavor of the day, actually right. I know you guys. The flavor of the day, actually.
Well, I mean
in terms of the mega caps.
I'm messing with you. I'm messing with you.
In terms of the mega caps.
Centris is having a hell of a day today, though.
It's my largest position by waiting. I've talked
to you guys about it every fucking day for
I don't know how long. Centris Energy, Centris Energy.
Search my tweets. I don't know. I have 500
tweets on Centris Energy going back to 2021.
This talk just keeps going up. up i mean today of all days a market leading name that's up 300 percent off the lows in nuclear energy of all themes should be down today i mean look at the
nuclear stocks today look at the speculative stocks today le is my number one position by
waiting i share my full portfolio transparently i'm not just saying it today because, oh, it's up 14% today. So it'd be a good, good day to pretend like it's
my top waiting. I share my portfolio to thousands of people. They see it for months. LEU has been
number one waiting, number one, waiting, number one, waiting, went from 96 to 200 to now 300.
I think it's going much, much, much higher, um, which is why I still own it and why I own it in
the size I do.
But there's going to be volatility along the way. It fell to 160 four weeks ago.
You know, how many people did that shake out? Stock fell from 260 to 160. If you didn't know the story, you got out there, right? If you don't know the story, you look at that and go, well,
this is the daily and weekly breakdown. I don't know. What are the chances the stock goes back
to the highs? Not only did it go back to the highs in the 300s now. And is, I mean, i don't know what are the chances the stock goes back to the highs not
only to go back to the highs in the 300s now and is i mean i don't know all things being equal
probably going higher the department of energy today this morning for people that don't know
why centrist energy is up 15 today announced that they are going to expand centrist's enrichment
capacity in ohio and as i've mentioned many times before people follow
my content know already centrist is the only uranium enricher in the entire country
and now the department of energy has come out and said yep you're in a league of your own
we have to expand capacity in ohio at your plant because no one else in the country is enriching
uranium and still i mean at 96, people thought
I was stupid for buying the stock because they said, look at the PE ratio. And my retort then
was, this is a national strategic asset, and it's worth more than $3 billion. Today, the market cap
is obviously much higher. It's more than doubled since we bought it. Today, the market cap is 5.7
billion. And I still think if you put the only uranium enricher in the country up for bid and private
auction it would go for much much more than that and that's how i'm thinking about the valuation
of these strategic assets not from a p ratio perspective and i think the people who understand
the assets and understand what's happening from a national policy standpoint to secure these assets
they're the people that have high conviction in these types of stocks that have held them.
I mean, energy fuels is another one, which I also believe has strategic importance with
the White Mesa mill, which is the only conventional uranium mill in the country,
and is now also refining rare earth metals, heavy rare earth metals.
They're also the only place in the country doing that.
Like White Mesa is also a national strategic asset.
Look at energy fuels today.
It's green again.
Keep in mind, this is a stock that has doubled in the past month.
It is every reason to be down today with everything else.
And it's not.
In fact, it was down 9% off the open and it's going to close green.
It's going to close up 2%.
It's not a stock that's like was consolidating and now just finally had its green day today.
No, it's doubled in a month and it's still green.
Because the market's seeing through to these things and it's flushing out speculation where it should. It's flushing out
speculation in the SMR stocks and the pre-revenue SMR stocks and the quantum stocks. The speculation
should be flushed out there. People should be burnt out of those stocks, in my opinion,
for all I'm concerned. I think the idea that people are paying $20 billion valuations for
pre-revenue companies is hilarious to me.
I would never own something like that in my portfolio.
And I'm a speculative guy.
The stuff I own is not cheap.
If you go through my portfolio, you won't find low PE ratios, right?
But everything I own, I can justify the valuation via my thesis.
I can justify what the company is valued at via my overall thesis on the company,
not just based on the P-E ratio. And that to me is what makes a great stock picker is the ability
to see through the noise and put context around the companies that you pick and say, look,
I think this is worth more for X, Y, and Z reasons. I don't care that the earnings aren't
where they need to be to justify the stock. if you felt that way you missed all the best performing stocks the last five last five years
right if you're a p ratio uh guy you miss all the best stocks right so that's just true that's not
like my opinion that's just true right palantir robin hood anything even the best nuclear stocks
this year leu you like super performing stocks don't trade cheaply.
Okay.
But anyway, Centris, amazing day.
And that thing flowed in my portfolio today.
Most of the names of my portfolio were red today, like they were for most people.
But Centris being up almost 15% as of the close, and it's my largest position by weighting, really, really helped for the portfolio today.
As did Kratos being up 4% and Yu Yu being green as well. But a slight red day for the portfolio.
It could have been much worse had Centris been down with a lot of other speculative names, but it wasn't.
So maybe a little bit of luck there because Centris had the catalyst this morning.
But, you know, luck only goes so far.
You know, my portfolio has been able to thwart volatility pretty much all year and continue to hit new highs.
I mean, even through the April lows.
So I think part of it is just having picks in different industries. I talked about this
yesterday. My picks aren't all in tech. And on that topic is the new position that I opened
today. I shared on Twitter earlier, but obviously I like to talk about it on stocks on spaces when i get onto the show uh with you guys but so this is uh
i like to look at under covered names right like a lot of times you know when i was talking about
leu in 2021 nobody was talking about it when i was talking about nebby as very few people were
talking about it when i was talking about amcor two weeks ago no one was talking about it not a
single soul on the platform now that stock's 20. And I think people will begin to talk more and more about that in the coming
quarters. Still love Amcor, by the way, just because I opened something new doesn't mean
it's going down. Amcor is a top three waiting in my portfolio. So I don't want people to think
that I've lost conviction in that. It's literally top three waiting in my portfolio. And the fastest
ever stock to get there, by the way. It got there in two weeks and no other stock's gotten that high
for me in such a short period of time. But anyway, in a similar vein to Amcor, what I've been focusing on lately
as the markets get higher and higher here is I'm focused less on speculation and I'm focused more
on reasonably priced opportunities and hot themes. So I'm caring a little more about valuation at the tail end of this bull market than I did at
the front end and the reason for that is is that when the correction does come I want the stocks
that I open more recently that I have less cost basis advantage on I want those stocks to be less
susceptible to correction so Amcor when I opened it I felt like that you know I was trading at 1x
sales and I felt like it was in a very hot industry,
which is U.S. semiconductor reshoring.
And I felt like it had direct relevance there, blue chip partners, all the good stuff.
So that was the thing behind that.
And today with GXO Logistics, and I'll pin a tweet at the top,
just summarizing my thesis on it.
I posted this earlier.
But there's three companies I'm researching currently.
This is one of them or was one of them because now I'm long on it.
So it's not technically on my research list, but this was one of them.
I generally research two to three companies at a time.
Usually that results in me taking no positions.
So I'd say 90% of the time that I'm researching a company, I'm not taking a position.
I end up not taking a position.
And then 10% of the time I do.
And so in this set, I was looking at three positions and this was one of them. And then
yesterday I saw Goldman Sachs upgrade this stock. And like, I don't have 10 stocks on my research
list. I have three stocks. So when I see somebody on wall street, like mentioned an undercovered
stock on my research list and all the names of my research list are not stocks that people talk about. Like if you search the tickers, they're
not really stocks that people talk about. But anyway, GXO yesterday, Goldman upgraded it.
And when I saw that, I read part of Goldman's note and I was like, oh, they're starting to
notice what I noticed. So I was like, I have to get long on this before people start seeing the
thesis that I have because I didn't want Goldman to blow it out.
So I got long on it today. And Goldman has a little bit of a different thesis than me, but
here's mine. The stock is trading at 0.5 times sales. Now they have about $2 billion in net debt,
400 billion in cash. Stock is trading at about 6 billion market cap.
The debt's serviceable.
It's not an unreasonable amount of debt.
It's not like a financially precarious situation for them,
especially considering the company in the trailing 12 months is doing 12.7 billion in revenue, right?
So they're doing twice as much revenue as their market cap.
That's 0.1.
But 0.2 is that they're growing, and they're growing fast.
The TTM revenue growth is at a 22% clip.
So what I see there is a boring business that is inflecting to serious growth.
And the reason I even stumbled upon the stock in the first place actually had nothing to
do with industrials or anything.
I was surprised I even stumbled upon it.
But what I was researching lately in the last
couple of months was robotics. And I was researching the robotics supply chain in the last couple of
months. And I was trying to find stocks that I thought were fairly valued that I could get
exposure to robotics to. And I just couldn't find any. Like I looked for, I don't know, three weeks
and just nothing was reasonably priced. Like there were some nice charts, but like, I just couldn't get conviction behind anything. I went to probably like eight or
nine robotics names. There aren't a ton of publicly traded peer plays, but went through eight or nine
names. Like serve robotics is one I've owned in the past. I still like, like that one. And I think
the charts nice and I think it's probably going higher, but I just couldn't get behind it with
conviction. So anyway, I bounced around and then I started thinking about, um, warehouses and like factories. And I started thinking like,
you know, if, if automation robotics is going to come, it's probably going to go there first
because commercial players have the incentive to deploy robotics and automation in their,
in their factories and their warehouses, but they also have the money to do it. Right? Like these commercial players who, anybody who's warehousing
goods has a lot of capital, period. Right? Like the Amazons, the Walmarts, the Apples, the Boeings,
they have a shitload of money. Okay? So these people, you're dealing with capital rich customers.
That's point one. But point two is that they have the incentives and the ability to rapidly deploy these systems.
Whenever a party has both incentive and ability, whatever thing that you're imagining happens.
Like 99% of the time, I don't care if it's a corporate entity or a government entity or an individual person.
This isn't even just with respect to stocks.
If someone or something or some company has both the ability and the capital and the incentive to do something, they will do it.
It's basic logic, right?
And so for me, warehouse automation is – this is just my opinion.
Again, this is a thesis.
This isn't like something that I read.
I'm just speaking from what I think.
But in my opinion,
warehouse automation is going to be
the first frontier for robotics,
the first real frontier
where robotics are going to be deployed at scale.
And I want exposure to that.
Now, I talked about this
when I posted the thesis
in our Discord this morning.
I always post the ideas there first, of course.
But I talked about this briefly
and I talked about the idea
that I have robotics exposure in my portfolio, right? Like I own Amazon,
I own Nebius, I own Tesla, I've owned these stocks for a long time, I have deep cost-based
advantages on them, I have no plans to sell them. They all have robotics exposure, right? Amazon has
robotics exposure, Tesla has Optimus program, Nebius has AV ride with the food delivery robots
that are in Dallas that I see every day. So i have robotics exposure but i wanted a pure play and i didn't want to pay a 50 times sales
for one of these memes robotic stocks that are like trading at retarded valuation so i was like
you know what i'm gonna pass on those and so i started to really deep dive of the chain and I stumbled upon GXO, which is a spinoff. And what I realized
was, was that GXO in the last eight months has been pivoting heavily. So what they do
is that their, their, uh, contract was just logistics company, right? So they do logistics
for a fee. Okay. And that can be everything.
They do it in a lot of specialized industries. So they do an aerospace and defense and healthcare.
This can be everything from storing, uh, uh, like highly sensitive medical materials or, or,
or human materials or whatever to storing highly sensitive aerospace and defense parts that need to be cooled
at a specific temperature all the way to storing Apple devices before their release. They do these
secure storage facilities for Apple before release, these secure warehouses where like
they have the iPhones in there ready to go, ready to ship before they even present them to the
public. Like they have these really, really specialized warehousing solutions.
That's what they do.
Okay.
And they go to these big companies and they say, look, instead of hiring hundreds of engineers
and cooling techs and all these specialists, we have those teams already.
You give us a logistics fee, usually a multi-year logistics fee, usually a multi-billion dollar
multi-year logistics fee, right? The-billion dollar multi-year logistics fee,
right? The company's done $13 billion in revenue in the last 12 months. It's not a small company
in terms of revenue. So they're signing these massive multi-billion dollar logistics contracts
with some of the biggest companies in the world. Their partnership list is not a small one. Apple,
one, Apple, Nike, Nestle, Boeing, like Whirlpool appliances, like big companies. Okay. And
these companies, what their job is to make the products and sell them. They don't want to have
to worry about specialized warehousing and logistical operations and being able to get
deliveries off in remote parts of the country. They don't even want to have to worry about that.
They want a warehousing partner to do that.
And so for a long time, this has been that sort of business.
And frankly, it's a boring business
when you think about warehousing in a vacuum, right?
You're like, oh, warehousing, who gives a shit?
But it becomes a more interesting business now
because of robotics.
And it becomes a more interesting business now
because now automated and robotics-enabled warehouses have an even higher barrier to entry than traditional warehousing.
Right. Like if you're if you're a company and you want a warehouse built near, let's say, a location of interest where, you know, you have a lot of customers and you want to have efficient and fast delivery to those customers in the area.
So you build a warehouse. OK. Build a warehouse, get some operators for the warehouse. The burden on the third-party
contractor there is not enormous. In many cases, you don't even need a third-party contractor,
right? But it becomes an entirely different conversation when you want an automated
warehouse that's robotics enabled, that has the robots installed, that has the necessary
softwares installed, that is turnkey, that you can just drop shit off in and it's automated, right?
That if you're Amazon or Walmart or Nike, you can just drop, if you're Nike, who's a big partner of
theirs, you can just drop off all your shoes and they are automatically sorted and warehoused and
set for delivery. And all the logistics are done for you without you having to become a logistics company if you're Nike, right? And the premise here is that not everyone can do what
Amazon has done, right? Amazon was an e-commerce player that became the world's biggest logistics
company. Not everyone is going to do that. In fact, almost no one else is going to do that.
Everyone else, Apple, Nike, all these guys, they don't want to be a logistics company,
right? So they need a third-party logistics provider. And these guys, they don't want to be a logistics company, right? So they need a third
party logistics provider. And these guys are the world's largest peer play on third party logistics.
And now, in my view, they're becoming thematically relevant to robotics and automation as well. And
I think that's going to drive growth. Because I think as this theme heats up, this automation
heats up, and there's higher and higher demand for automation and automated warehouses, I think as this theme heats up, this automation theme hits up and there's higher and higher demand for automation and automated warehouses, I think that there'll be a spillover effect for demand for companies like GXO.
And I think the double whammy here is that they are an asset light model.
Like they're ready to go now.
If the warehousing trend started tomorrow, they are ready to go. They have part. They have they are an asset light model. Like they're ready to go now. If the warehousing
trend started tomorrow, they are ready to go. They don't build the robots. They're not a robotics
company in the sense they build the robots. They have partners, which they procure robots from,
and then they have software partners who build platforms for warehousing, and they integrate
those technologies and then deliver them to their blue chip customers, right? Hey, here's the warehouse. It's automated. The equipment's
installed. The robotics are installed. You just need to put your shit in there and pay us a
multi-year fee to manage it and operate the warehouse. And so I like the business model.
And I think they have a pretty convincing trajectory to consistent growth. And my view is if the stock returns to consistent
growth, which TTM revenue shows pretty nice growth, right, 22%, if they can keep that up
and at the same time the market says your robotics and automation play,
there's no way in my view the multiple doesn't expand significantly.
The stock won't trade at 0.5x sales in that scenario. 0.5x sales is not an expensive
valuation by any measure, even if you're not profitable and they are profitable.
So yeah, I don't know. I think it's another undiscovered stock that, you know, I'd like to operate in those types of names.
And then I, you know, sort of smile and laugh when the crowd finds them.
But, you know, it took the crowd a week or so to figure out what I was talking about with Amcor.
And then the stock around 20 percent. And I think it's going to run much, much more.
And with this one, I think it'll probably take the crowd a little bit to figure it out.
But, you know, I'm not saying the stocks
be green every day. I always like to preface this because whenever I bring up an idea, people always
like tag me every time a stock's red. Every stock goes red, guys. Like, you know, so just be wary
of that. But I like the idea. I like the company. I think they're in a unique positioning here.
And I think they're cheap. And i think because they're cheap thematically
positioned and have a lot of secular tailwinds behind them i think it's an interesting story so
yeah i'm long on that name today it's about five and a half percent waiting for me um almost close
to six as of the close because some of those options went up a nice amount on today's 3% move. But, yeah, 5.5% to 6%-ish waiting for me on that thing.
So, yep, that's GXO.
I wanted to get that out before the close because I know some of you complain when I talk about positions I took and don't say it before the close.
So, that's all for me.
And I don't know if Brian got to talk or got to talk or or uh Evan if you want to rotate to
some other topics but I know there were some other good things out this morning
um on the sell side and stuff too so we can talk about that if you want but yeah that's GXO
logistics at this point we have Costco earnings coming out in any second let me double check what
time this says 4 15 so we actually do have a
couple minutes brian lund you a gxo guy was that compelling for you i'm just scribbling or you
bored i'm scribbling notes i just can't get enough uh no i look i said this yesterday and i'm not
trying to kiss up to stock talk but um i appreciate his. It's different than mine. But it's obviously been very effective.
And I think one of the things that's important is that no matter how long we've done this, you're always open to new ideas, new concepts, that you're always evolving the way you look at markets.
And we can also walk and chew gum at the same time like i can have some short-term intermediate term trade plays that i like while i
also incorporate longer term uh value plays that that i use technical analysis to get in strategically
um so it's all good i mean i can't overestimate the the value or overemphasize the value of these
spaces uh you know we all have discords the more eyes that are on the market, the better,
because it's all about idea generation, right? And when people are bringing ideas to you can evaluate them based on your, your criteria, your timeframe, your risk parameters. But the more
people looking at the markets, the better you are poised to find those things, uh, before the rest
of the market. I appreciate that, Brian. And then I agree with you, you know, and whenever I'm talking,
like, I think some people mistake when I advocate for my style that I'm like knocking other people's
style. I'm not. It's just kind of the way we all are. Like we all have found success in our own
ways and like kind of pound the table about the way that we do things. And I don't ever mean it
to say like, you know, other people are doing things wrong.
One thing I will say, though, you know, one thing I have stood behind in my career and I used to be more short term oriented is that like I genuinely do believe overactivity is a curse, like no matter
what your time frame is as a trader or investor, like even if you're a short term guy, I think overactivity is
a curse because like what I've found, again, this is just my personal experience is that
like less clicking with more thought makes way more money. Like I used to click a lot and not
think a lot, you know, and this kind of sounds rudimentary
and stupid maybe to some people listening to the audience.
But like when I, when I started trading, I clicked a lot of buttons, right?
You do a lot of buying and selling and, you know, uh, searching and whatever.
But I don't do much of that anymore.
Like when I'm at my screen, I am at my screens all day, right?
Twitter, discord discord like i'm
in the discord most of the day and the mornings and like then i'm here on spaces like i'm at my
desk all day but like am i trading all day like not really most of it is looking at charts
researching you know pop up some balance sheets occasionally i'm not a big balance sheet guy but
occasionally i will you know look at some revenue graphs i'll read about read some news articles that no one's
reading i'll i read a lot of taiwanese news lately about the semiconductor industry but like
i just try to learn basically in a really broad way you know about everything about
the technical side of the market about you know liquidity pools about you know, about everything, about the technical side of the market, about, you know,
liquidity pools, about, you know, how many unhedged flows are coming in the market. I don't
use all this information. I don't want people to pretend that it's all useful. Like I'm a very
micro-focused guy, but I just find it easier to navigate markets if you just stay focused on the
stocks that you have, whether you're focused on them technically or fundamentally, and just like stay focused on that. And when everything in your
portfolio is breaking down at the same time, then you can start asking questions, you know, but
those periods are rare in the markets, especially if you have a diversified set of positions. And
part of the reason why corrections have been less stressful for me in the last couple of years is that I've tried to build baskets that are going to perform on different types of days.
I'll be frank, I didn't think centers were going to be up today. Obviously, it was, and that helped.
But there have been many other days this year where some of my speculative names were down, and then maybe my aerospace and defense stocks were up on that day.
Or maybe my aerospace and defense stocks were down, but my sports media basket was up on that day because there was an nfl catalyst or something
and that kind of stuff helps me float performance in the interim like when i don't have any explosive
ideas on the table and i know i've had a hot hand lately so a lot of people are like oh it is
everything you talk about just rip like no so a lot of stuff i talk about consolidates for weeks or months before right like not everything just goes up right away but i'm better able to hold through those periods
of consolidation because i have other things in my portfolio that are paying me if i didn't
it'd be harder right and because there's more opportunity costs that way or there's more i
shouldn't say there's more opportunity costs because there's not more literal opportunity costs, but there's more perceived opportunity costs that way. Right. Like if you're long something, if you full port something, for example, this is probably an extreme example, but I know a lot of people full port on this platform. and then you see other stuff running, that's painful, right? Because all of your money is
in one thing. And there are other opportunities that are moving in the market, maybe stuff that
you maybe even want to buy, and you can't buy it because you're maxed out one position, right?
That's always a shitty position to be in. In fact, it's a shittier position to be in
when you don't have the ability to generate or have a new idea. That's why for me, I always,
like I'm a leverage trader, so I do go into margin. I don't recommend new traders do that. You should only do that if you're experienced.
But even if you don't use margin, if you're in a cash account, you should keep some level of cash
always, in my opinion. Because if you're a margin account, it's a different story, you know what
you're doing. But if you're not, you should keep some cash always because you want to be able to,
there might be a ripe new idea that you really like. And you're like, dude,
I don't have the capital for it. And your capital's frozen and locked up in stuff that's not moving
or not performing. And that's a tricky place to be in. A lot of people say you'll win in markets
if you just buy and hold stocks. That's not true either you have to buy and hold the right ones we talked about this a few weeks ago with intel which has done nothing for
so long and now it's finally starting to move but you know you could have been a shareholder
from intel since 1998 and been flat that's brutal you know and you you have to recognize that though
that this is why both sides of the ball matter this is why why learning both technical and fundamentals matter, in my opinion.
If you want to be able to superperform the markets, because you want to be able to hold the winning stocks for long.
And you want to be able to know which ones are just hype trains and are going to come back down.
That's a really hard call to make.
You know, I tweeted this several months ago, but I said, you know, the difference between the great stock pickers and the good stock pickers is that the good stock pickers get into the good stocks, but they don't stay in them for long enough because they don't understand them.
All they see is the chart. They're like, hey, nice volume profile, sick wedge breakout.
You know, it looks nice on all time frames. I'm going to long it here.
Then it rips 20% and
they sell it. Right. And it's a great trade. I'm not knocking anyone for making money ever. Okay.
Make money. Great. If you're consistently profitable, even better. But it's not about
knocking somebody for making money. The point is, is that there are many of those names that
should not be sold on that 20% move. That 20% move is the beginning of a four or 500, 600% move for so
many stocks in the last five years. Right. And I think the super performers are the difference
between the super performers and the great performers in the last five years are the
ones who held those stocks versus the one who sold them on rallies and then got locked out of them.
How do you know the difference? Research work Work. Like actual work. Like not reading tweets and like hearing about stuff, but like real work.
That's how you know the difference. That's how you figure out, oh, this is not just a hype stock that's getting insane momentum volume and riding the 921 EMAs because there's a retail bid under it 365 days a year.
This is a stock that's seeing increased institutional interest, growing revenue, a sexy story. It's thematically relevant. Maybe they have a national strategic
asset like Centrist or Energy Fuels did. When all of those factors click, then you're like,
oh, dude, let me print the cash out for you. That's how I feel when I have those factors
lined up. And that's what makes a high conviction trip. That's what makes the sort of trade that carries your
whole portfolio and you just don't have to worry about anything. Like that's ideal, right? The
goal in markets is, no matter what your style is, to make money with the least stress possible,
right? That's everyone's goal, I imagine. I would hope so. Make as much money money with the least stress possible, right? That's everyone's goal, I imagine.
I would hope so.
Make as much money possible with the least stress possible.
The best way I've found to do that
is to take deliberate, high-conviction positions
in a handful of stocks, be low turnover,
and if you want to pay yourself, trim the positions.
You know, I said this a few weeks ago, and I'll repeat it.
Very often, people are looking for where they should put their money.
What's the next stock I should put my money in.
And very often it's the place where it already is.
Think about that.
Think about that for those of you that have extremely high turnover,
who are always selling your winners to find another winner.
You know, give that serious thought.
Like, sometimes is your money better used by just keeping it?
I know you see profits on the screen.
I know what you've been told by the setup gurus on Twitter, which is that you must pay
yourself regularly.
You must take a 50% tax event regularly.
Okay.
You know. Okay. You know, okay. Good luck giving back half your performance doing that in taxes and good luck ever building a portfolio
doing that. You're never going to build a portfolio of stocks doing that. If all of,
if most of your capital, not even all of it, if most of your capital is used to just cycle in and out of trades constantly in perpetuity, cycle after cycle after cycle,
you're going to wake up 25 years later and be like, where are all the stocks I was supposed to own?
5,000% lower.
You won't have any of them.
You might have a pile of cash if you're really good.
If you're really good, that's a caveat.
Most of you
do that for ten years won't have will have the opposite of a pile of cash but
if you're really really really really good at short-term trading you'll end up
with the 20 years later with a pile of cash and I'd much rather end up with a
pile of stocks that I own thousands of percent lower personally I'd much rather
have that and that's up to you you to you. And that decision of where you want to be in 20 years,
whether you want a pile of 50% taxed cash, or if you want a pile of high conviction stocks that
in really cutting edge industries that you own at cost basis that they'll never see again,
the prices that they'll never see again, You decide which of those two things you want.
And that should dictate the style of your effort and the time you put in markets and
where you dictate that time.
For me, the answer is very clear.
And so I don't spend my time clicking buttons.
I spend my time doing a lot of work on the few things that I own, sizing them aggressively.
And then if I want to pay myself or I need to pay myself, I pay myself by selling
some of them. That's it. That's simple. It's that easy. There's a falsity. There's a misconception
on Twitter that you can only pay yourself regularly or you can only make a living trading
if you're doing short-term trading. That is literally a lie. Because long before I ever
had my sock talk business and when I was trading, I was making a living trading on just trading and I was not doing that.
I was not scalping and day trading.
I was making a living on swing trading and you can do that.
I don't know how that even got started, that myth.
But it's like a very like commonly accepted thing on Twitter.
Like, oh, dude, well, if you need to pay yourself and you need to generate your income, you can't do that.
You can't do the low turnover. What are you talking about?
Yes, you can. It's just dollars in, dollars out. If you put 100K in 10 stocks that are short-term trades, you put 100K in one high-conviction stock, and that stock keeps going up, and out of those
10 short-term trades, you hit maybe six out of 10, what's paying you more?
You're the one who decides to sell. If you have a thousand shares, okay, sell a hundred shares.
When it goes up, pay yourself. I don't care. I mean, that's up to you. I don't know. People
have their own financial obligations. I'm not telling people when or when to or when not to
pay themselves. That's up to you based on your own needs and income needs and tax obligations
and yada, yada, yada, whatever, that person to person.
But broadly speaking, what sounds better? I mean, to me, the answer was clear. And
this is really why I changed the way I operate. You know, I was like 99% of the accounts on Twitter,
I was doing the whole, where's the next setup? Where's the next wedge breakout? Where's the next,
you know, retest of resistance where's this where's
that i was just constantly looking and growing gray hairs looking for new setups every day like
i felt like a crazy person and now i'm like all right i have this five or six names i know like
the back of my hand i have a huge size in them i can trim the contracts whenever i want they keep
going up every month like that's an amazingly stress-free position to be in.
And when they go down, I don't give a shit because I know them so well. I know the companies and the
valuations and the peer valuations and the industries so well that I have zero concern
when they go down. You know, like energy fuels this morning was down like 9% this morning.
A bunch of people were tagging me in the discord. It closed green. I was like, don't worry about it,
guys. Relax. Stock doubled in a month. It's down 9%.
Big deal.
Whoop.
Stock literally reversed like 20 minutes later and ripped to green.
Like, conviction is what makes money in markets, not activity.
Conviction in size, not activity.
Conviction in size, not activity.
Put it on a fucking sticky note.
Put it on a fucking sticky note. Put it on a
sticky note. And people realize this over time because most of Twitter is cancerous garbage
because it's a bunch of 19 and 20-year-olds who just learned how to trade, who are obsessed with
short-term gratification, who are posting pictures of Lambos and Rolexes. These guys are not going
to be consistently profitable over 10 years. I promise you. I promise you. Okay.
And the second a bear market hits, none of them are going to be able to find these setups
that they are looking for. The quote unquote setups are going to disappear real fast when
a bear market shows up, right? What do you do then? You have no context about any of the stocks.
All you see are the charts. You do nothing then is what you do, right? What a lot of the setup traders will say, well, it's sit on your hands time.
No, it's never sit on your hands time. Some there's times to observe.
Right. But you diligently observe the stocks that you know well for compelling buy points, you know, not just technical buy points, but compelling buy points on valuation, on peer valuation, you know, on industry momentum, on a recent earnings
release. Like if you're aware of your surroundings with a stock, you are able to make those
sophisticated decisions. If you're not, you're like a deer in headlights when the markets turn
on you. So conviction and size, that's how you make money. If you want to actually make money,
if you want to play the game of like, oh, I made 500 bucks today because I hit an options trade because I saw a wedge
breakout. You want to do that for the rest of your life? Or do you want to like actually like
own stocks that grow and pay you by their own merit rather than you having to go find them
all the time? That's the decision. That's the decision. And everyone will make a different one.
But for me, I know my answer
is pretty clear.
We should be getting these Costco numbers out in a second.
Costco
warehouses by GXO Logistics.
No, I'm just kidding. They're not a partner, but
maybe. Let's see.
Costco does release their numbers
out their monthly sales data, so I don't know
how much moves. We got a little bit of a COTG
What did you think of the GXO?
I thought it was good.
Warehousing isn't that interesting to you?
No, I'd have to look into a
Costco with a little bit of a move
higher here.
It's not a small cap. I know you don't like higher here. It's not a small gap.
I know you don't like small gaps.
It's not a small gap.
$5.87, which is a beat on expectations.
And we also have revenue, which is give or take in line with expectations.
I'm seeing it reported as a small beat.
$86.2 billion.
Green circle.
I didn't hear too much about the numbers. So I'd have to actually get in front of me yeah I mean
you can keep my tweet but twelve point seven billion in annual revenue five
point nine billion market cap so trading point five times sales growing 22% not
pull it up on earnings up I it has like an A rating on earnings
I think I checked like yesterday or today
anyway I think I scared away the panel with my GXO rant but
maybe it was too boring
um are there any other topics you want to touch on we touched on the oracle cell
um I was sorry honestly just what a time to be alive what no just just whatever
but yeah
what's going on
we could talk about GXO
let me take a look at some of the numbers
I already gave a
30 minute rant on it we don't need to pound it
yeah
Oklo got a neutral price target
this morning Webull got a buy
rating Amentum Oracle got a sell rating centrist had big news but i already covered that
dot dot dot
yeah we pretty much covered everything i don't know i don't know if there's any other topics
like there wasn't i was focused just on the centrist news today and then on the
gxl position so i wasn't really looking at the broader market too much today
i'm imagining you are we're not either based on your silence
you or we're not either based on your silence honestly man honestly man i don't even know
what's going on at this point in time in life so i have no idea about anything that's happening
i know bmr was going down i was buying a little bit i probably should sell
what's cool what is what is up with you right now you're like i don't know what's going on in life
what's going on
okay evan is uh busy or something uh amp are you there
em's not there either okay it's just me on the panel
do a little q a then i guess Are you there? Em's not there either. Okay, it's just me on the panel.
Do a little Q&A then, I guess.
So a Q&A would be good for you today.
Anyone got any questions?
You can also close it out if you want.
Iron and Cypher.
I saw Cypher had some news this morning.
That was a weird one with NVIDIA. What do we got coming up after this?
Did you look into that cipher news stock talk i did i thought it was a pretty bad deal i did i said this remember when we were talking about this we're talking with other stocks and
i was like all these stocks are running and they're they think they're going to get a deal but
they're probably not going to get the type of deal that they think they are and I did not think that
That cypher deal was very good in my opinion
Too long of a period too small of a number the warrants are really a concession
This seems to me like a deal more so where they went to Google than Google went to them.
And I don't know.
It pales in comparison to the Nebius deal, and I think for good reason.
Like, everyone thinks, there's this misconception.
Everyone thinks that, like, everybody with HPC capacity is going to get a fucking $20 billion
deal from Microsoft or from Google.
And, like, those people just don't know what they're talking about.
Those people don't know the first thing about data center.
And that's most of Twitter.
The problem is that because Iron and Cypher both became meme stocks,
because, you know, they just became meme stocks.
Mike Alfred and Eric Jackson just pumping them to the building.
They had a great call on them early.
Those stocks should have been re-rated for HPC capacity.
They probably should have all doubled.
But the run that they've been on is just ridiculous.
I mean, I owned Cypher at one point.
That was a great trade when you had the HVEs coming in.
I was like, oh, this thing could go to $10, $12, maybe even $15.
And it did.
But, I mean, I don't know.
If that's the best they're going to get, the Google deal they got today,
those companies are not worth the run that they had.
They're just not.
Nebius has the strategic expertise to execute on a deal like that.
That's why they got the number that they got from who they got it from.
Anyone who's under the illusion that Microsoft is going to go around
writing multi-billion dollar checks to Bitcoin miners
has lost their fucking mind.
Lost their mind. Like, keep in mind, guys, like.
Yeah, these facilities are valuable, but they are not valuable in perpetuity.
Think about how much infrastructure spend is on the table right now, like trillions of dollars.
Right. So.
It's going to be hard to compete with that by just saying we have a facility.
It's not like that compelling. If you're a hyperscaler, I think people have kind of over overreached a little bit on how compelling like the HPC opportunity is. Again, I tweeted this when the Coors deal happened.
I said all of these stocks need a re-rating.
They did re-rate.
Like they have re-rated.
So like people who are buying them now after a 400% run, like, I mean, good luck.
Maybe they go higher.
I'm not saying they don't go higher.
I'm not saying to short them either.
But like, are they all going to get $17 billion deals from Microsoft? No.
And if you expect that, you're going to be like really, really sorely disappointed. So,
you know, just right size your expectations if you are in the shit code Bitcoin miners that
are pretending to be HPC stocks, because that's what most of them are. Right. So just understand
that. And there are real facilities of value.
Like, Iron has facilities of value.
Cypher has facilities of value.
Riot has facilities of value.
I'm not saying that these stocks are zeros,
and I'm not saying that they shouldn't have re-rated.
Again, they should have re-rated.
They are not zeros.
They are multi-billion dollar companies.
But you have to understand the risk-reward.
You have to be like, what is the catalyst now?
The catalyst now is that these guys have to get deals to justify their valuations, period.
And some of them won't.
In fact, most of them won't.
It's just that simple.
You don't even need to get into the specifics on individual ones.
Most of them will not get multi-billion dollar HBC deals, period.
They're going to get something in the similarity of what Cypher got today, which is mostly
just good for Google as an optionality as opposed to being that remarkably beneficial or game-changing for Cypher got today, which is mostly just good for Google as an optionality as opposed to
being that remarkably beneficial or game-changing for Cypher. I think that's part of why the move
reversed. But I mean, there were stocks that were green today, right? You can't blame it on the
market. Centris had a catalyst today. It was green today. You can't say, oh, the market just pulled
Cypher red. I think the reaction was based on the terms of the deal. And yeah,
I don't know. This is, again, all of
this stuff is just a product of people
not knowing what they own.
It's what this is. It's just a product
of people reading a paragraph on Twitter
and then saying,
oh, I know what I'm buying.
I know why I'm buying it because I read a paragraph
on Twitter. No, you don't. You have to actually know why I'm buying it, because I read a paragraph on Twitter.
No, you don't.
You have to actually know it.
You have to research it and understand the industry and all that stuff.
This is the only one I can't.
Here's some... I think we got any interesting comments.
I think we got any interesting comments.
The 25K PDT requirement.
You have any thoughts on that one?
They might be getting rid of the pattern day trader thing.
I think it might be going down to 2K.
I'm going to send a stock a little bit,
but I'm sure you've heard people in the Discord talking about it.
Yeah, I mean, just another accelerant for markets
right i did that long post yesterday um about retail versus institutions and i sort of acknowledge
this in there where the democratization of access to stocks is changing rapidly.
Excuse me, sorry, throat's so dry.
That the democratization of access to stocks is changing rapidly.
And I think this day trading rule is just one more step in that direction.
If you look at what's happening with tokenization of stocks,
I think that's another step in that direction. I feel like what's happening with single stock futures, which are going to be coming within the next six months, maybe sooner, that's all going in that direction.
So the vehicles for speculation are opening up. Maybe it's a top signal, but I don't know.
Markets look fine to me for now let's try this out I don't know
if I love it though the change well it's kind of had the I kind of I mean
that's how the direction is going a lot of kids are gonna lose their asses also with this 24-hour
markets and stuff yeah i don't know it's like now that robinard allows shorting could you imagine
like some kid that doesn't know what he's doing you probably shouldn't short the fees are going
to be pretty high yeah i know of course but i'm saying you know there's still going to be kids
that don't know what they're doing who short in size not understanding this max risk even though there's
a warning there and they're going to short in size with unlimited day training like it's just
yeah that's that's going to be bad for a lot of people but that's how you learn lessons you know
like uh i have so many funny stories with stupid stuff I've done with trading. Like I remember, you know, one time I had, uh,
I had a spy put position that was a hedge and it went in the money.
The hedge went in the money and it was like a Friday and I can't remember what
I was doing. This is like years ago. And I was so busy and I,
I forgot about it. Like I forgot about how I had the head hedge on that
it was expiring that day. I think I thought it was expiring like the next week or something.
So expiring that day. And so then I woke up like that next Monday morning with like a million
dollars of spy short in stock. And I was like, what the hell is going on?
And, uh, I had to close it rapidly and I took like a big loss.
I don't remember what it was.
I took like a 70 or 80 K loss just like from having accidentally exercised, um, against
that position.
But yeah, it was, it was not fun, But people make stupid mistakes.
What do you think are some of the stupid mistakes you think people make as young people?
Some people don't take enough risks.
Some people take too much risk.
Some people go on margin.
What do you think of margin? This conversation is always tricky because
what everyone says on Twitter is don't use margin.
Trump approves TikTok deal through executive order.
But I mean, this has been telegraphed. Continue, sorry.
What were you who just asked me about? Um, Oh, Oh,
were you just asked me about a margin?
Oh yeah.
So the,
the prevailing sentiment that you see on Twitter is like,
don't use margin.
And like,
I'm going to agree with that because I know most of you in the audience are
like,
not that experienced.
I know some of you are, but like, I know most of you are probably pretty new to markets and even if you have been in markets for a long time I know a lot of you aren't like
you know technically or fundamentally like literate I don't mean that as an insult I just
mean like you guys are do other things you're not, most of you are not full time in the markets. That's what I'm trying to say.
I'm not insulting anyone.
And so when you're not full time in the markets and it's not like your job to
know all these things,
it probably is a good thing to not use margin because use the use of margin
requires active observation at all times.
Okay.
That means you need to be able to watch price from the open to the close.
Because anything can happen, right?
Like, if you're using margin and there's a big knife in the markets, like, I don't know, World War III starts, and you're, like, not at your desk, you can get screwed.
You know, there's people that go so negative on their accounts that they can't afford to pay back
for years. So first rules first, if you can't observe your portfolio at all times without,
what's the phrase I'm looking for? Without any sort of restriction, there's nothing that'll
prevent you from checking your portfolio and clicking buttons at any time. If you cannot do that, then never use margin,
period, end of story. That's point one before we even get into the conversation about it.
Okay. If you can, at all times, look at your portfolio and you are consistently profitable for years, then I think you can use it.
And I use it.
But I use it tactically.
Okay?
So I use it to add leverage to positions that I have high conviction on.
Okay?
That I've researched intently for a long time.
And I also know how to manage against that leverage
when the markets go against me.
Like when the markets turn against me,
the first thing I do is cut my leverage.
The first thing I do, okay?
And the markets don't even need to go very far against me
for that to happen.
Like if SPY goes below the 21 EMA,
I usually start cutting short-term leverage pretty quickly.
Okay, because I don't want to sit in,
like if I'm in calls that expire in a few months,
I'm not going to sit in them
if we're trading below the 21 EMA on spike
because I don't know what's going to happen.
And there are moments where I get faked out.
Dude, I got faked out of some short-term calls in September.
Net, net, did it matter for the portfolio?
No, I'm at 250% here today.
Who cares?
I took a little haircut on some short-term calls
at the lows. Big whoop. It's a risk management move, right? It's something you have to do.
So if you can intently monitor your portfolio and you know how to effectively manage risk and you
are experienced and consistently profitable, then yes, you can use margin on high conviction
positions, in my opinion. If you do not meet even one of those criteria,
you should never use it, in my opinion. So that's my simple view on it. And I think it's a useful
tool. If you look at all the great investing records in history, not a single one has been
done without margin, not a single one without margin or leverage of some sort. So yes, if you're good and you know you're good,
this is the thing about being good in the markets, guys.
It's not about if you think you're good.
Okay?
I'm going to repeat that.
It's not about if you, like, when I, when, okay,
I play video games with my little brother sometimes, right?
I suck, okay? But my brother brother sometimes. Right. I suck.
Okay.
But my brother's good and he knows I suck.
Right.
But I'm not like, I can still be like, oh yeah, dude, I'm better than you think I am.
Right.
Cause it's a video game.
There's no objective way to quantify.
Right.
He might be like, oh, you don't play like me.
You're not aggressive enough.
Whatever.
I can be like, you know what?
I think I'm good.
I can make that argument.
Right.
In trading, you can't make that argument in trading there is no there
is no like oh yeah i don't care i i think i'm good i think i'm good no you know you're good
you know you know how you know you're good your performance that's it that's it
if your performance sucks you suck like i'm. It's not an insult to anyone.
It's just like, that's it. That's that simple. You're not, you're not good. You're doing
something wrong. If you're underperforming the S and B 500 and you're actively managing your
money. And in many cases, the simple answer is not anything bad about you. It's simple answer for most people is that I don't have the time.
And that's why for most people, you should just buy the S&P 500 and never use margin
and not pick stocks. Most of you, probably most of you, I wouldn't, I won't say most of you,
because most of you are probably people who are really intently focused on the markets,
but most people in general should do that. Now now the people who do feel like they have the time to do the work and have the
time to know the stocks and have the time to study the charts and study the financials
know the industries if you do you do feel you have the time to do that then it's not about
whether you think you're good it's about your performance your performance is going to tell
you whether you're doing it right or wrong and if you're doing if you're underperforming the short answer is going to tell you whether you're doing it right or wrong. And if you're underperforming, the short answer is you need
to change what you're doing. You either need to change the stocks you're picking, or you need to
change the way you're managing them. Something needs to change. Because you don't need your
buddy Fred to come and tell you, hey, dude, you're not that good at trading. Your portfolio will tell
you. And this goes for investing too.
Like some of you, like I'm not just talking to like when I, when I use the term trader,
I'm talking to active market participants.
That's what I mean.
When I say traders, everyone's a trader.
I've said this before.
I'm not going to repeat it, but everyone's a trader.
But for active market participants, that's your benchmark.
Like, and if, and if you're even even even if you're an investor who never actively
trades and you're looking at your five-year performance and you're under performing the
s&p 500 that might be a good signal to wrap it up and just buy the s&p 500 instead of the single
stocks you're picking that's a good signal that you're a bad stock picker if on a five-year base
and guys i'm not like i some people are going to read this and being like you're a bad stock picker. If on a five-year basis, and guys, I'm not like,
some people are going to read this and be like, you're being a dick. I'm really not,
that's not the intention of this. I'm trying to help people get over their confirmation bias and
get over their self sense of worth about their strategy and just say, dude, I have to go by the numbers. Like,
is what I am doing working? And if it's not, you have to change it. And so for the people,
the relevance to this, the margin conversation to cycle back to that is that those people should
not use margin. The people who have been confirmed by the market to be consistently correct. And not just this year guys.
Okay.
I mean,
for many,
many years,
if you've been profitable,
then you're like,
yeah,
I could put some leverage on my ideas.
So yeah,
that's my,
my rant on margin and leverage and that stuff.
I appreciate it. All right. Devinin i'm curious now because i know you only recently started being more active in the last couple years but do you use margin now no i've never used margin
like you never even thought thought about it or are you not fully allocated like do you always
have a cash position is that why no no for for Like, do you always have a cash position? Is that why?
No, no.
For a while, I maybe had a cash position over the last couple of years, but now that I'm fully allocated, maybe there's degen moments.
There's just something where I...
So, like, when you entered BM&R, you had cash?
Yeah.
Okay, so, like, what...
I don't know if you care about disclosing this,
but, like, what percent of your portfolio is that?
In BMNR?
Yeah.
Like all your total stock assets.
The problem is that like I have my portfolios in a couple different places and stuff like that.
So out of all your stock assets, what percentage is it?
10%.
Okay.
So it's a pretty big position for you.
It is a pretty big position.
That would be my guess.
Yeah.
The single stock one, it might be 20%. When we go across go across everything maybe it's even 12 i just go by all assets like i mean i i consolidated
all my stock assets in one portfolio anyway but i had to get it out because for me if i wanted to go
a little bit more risky in certain areas i had to have my qqq holding and that stuff the the
retirement things the more longer term one in a separate place that i'm not gonna yeah for me as
like a self-employed guy i'm like i want my capital on my one one place because i want my
leverage all in one place because i do use leverage and so yeah i like i just i was like
i'm gonna i had multiple accounts prior to 23 and then end of 23 i just consolidated it all in one
account and it's easier to manage it's better for leverage better for everything so i just like it better that way people are like oh it's not tax ideal i was like
dude don't worry don't worry about it i do fine but yeah that's it though that was there you go
i don't know what's happening earlier with you i guess you were busy but those were two good
questions that was uh i think useful stuff stuff. Here's a story.
Mark Zuckerberg and Meta reportedly in talks with Google
to use its Gemini AI model for targeted ads.
Maybe a lot of that because these come...
It's interesting that Meta is using someone else externally.
Yeah, the thing is, is so now people are these companies are scrambling to justify um
to justify the uh
spend right because the big reports that are coming out now is like everyone's like dude
we're not seeing any ROI.
Like where's the revenue from the AI spin, blah, blah, blah, blah.
And we've seen a lot of circular money flow to try to justify it.
Right. Like I particularly think the open AI Oracle NVIDIA deal is hilarious.
I think it's hilarious. Like in a dumb way.
It's like so circular.
Anyone can see it.
You don't even have to understand the industries to see it.
It's like hundreds of billions of dollars
flowing from OpenAI
to Oracle to NVIDIA back to
OpenAI. What?
It doesn't make any sense.
we need products products like useful products quickly
you know or else this bubble will pop and it'll be bad
so i hope that all this spend yields extremely useful next gen ai products within the next year i think there's a
shot but it has to happen like i frankly like put all the macro noise aside like if you want a really
big picture view for me or a really bold opinion i think this whole market is hinging on the next
ai product like the whole shebang like trillions of dollars in market capitalization.
I think if the next gen AI products are disappointing,
dude,
like if we hit a plateau in AI development and like,
I'm not saying this is going to happen,
but this is a risk.
This is the biggest risk to the market,
in my opinion.
And then everything goes. happen but this is a risk this is the biggest risk to the market in my opinion and again then
everything goes like it's not just gonna be the ai stocks like everything goes kaput in that
scenario and it'll probably be one of the worst crashes ever in my opinion so they have to and
i think these guys know that's why they're spending so much they know it. Like, Microsoft's market cap has done what since the release of ChatGPT?
Let's see.
Let's ask ChatGPT that.
How much has Microsoft...
Laughing at your own jokes.
I mean, that was funny, though.
Market cap grown.
I'm typing so slow right now.
I'm so tired.
Okay, let's see.
Microsoft's market cap is...
Eagles again at his own joke after.
Microsoft's market cap is Microsoft's market cap has doubled
from
1.9 trillion in November 2022
the release of chat GBT
to now 3.8 trillion
so Microsoft's market cap
the business has not doubled let's be clear
right
business has not doubled. Let's be clear. Right? Business has not doubled.
Right?
But in less than three years,
the mark gap has,
of one of the biggest companies in the world,
which is now the second biggest company in the world,
and that's not it.
It's not just that two trillion.
It's trillions of dollars in mark gap
for Meta and NVIDIA and all the stocks that have gone up.
Think about all the small caps that have gone up in the AI trade.
Think about all the suppliers.
Think about the photonic stocks.
Think about the power producers.
Think about the nuclear stocks.
Think about...
I go on.
That's, what, at least $20 trillion? Maybe a little less. That's what, at least 20 trillion?
Maybe a little less.
Let's say 15 trillion.
I think it's probably closer to 20,
maybe more than 20.
So what, 20 trillion in market cap
is hinging on AI
AI creating a genie.
creating a genie.
Like a literal genie in a bottle.
That's what they're betting on.
I think it's going to happen.
I just don't know when.
Right. And maybe.
Right?
Rate cuts and economic growth and incremental efficiency, maybe those carry enough weight to keep the bubble going for like another year, maybe a year and a half.
year maybe like year and a half
but you you're buying runway like the reason these guys why do you think these guys sam satya
sundar elon trump even why are they all doing so much pr around this like remember the announcement the announcement of Stargate, the, like, ridiculous numbers we heard?
Think about the numbers we've heard since then.
Now we get a headline from the Wall Street Journal opening out to invest $1 trillion.
$1 trillion.
No, not $100 billion, not $200 billion, but $1 trillion in U.S. agriculture.
Like, what are we fucking talking about?
Like, are we serious? If we we serious if we are serious then they really
do think there's a genie in the bottle at the end of this and like
how long is the market going to float that cost right what's happening what's happened in the
last three years is this the public the corporate and public, like the corporate public and the regular public, the retail public,
have funded to the tune of trillions of dollars the development of AI.
The building of all these data centers, the building of all these GPUs have been funded in the form of
the stock price appreciation of these massive companies who are building
this thing.
And the public has varying durations of patience.
And the public has been overwhelmingly patient with this theme, let's be clear, right?
Like, it's been three years since the release of ChatGPT, we've seen no meaningful earnings anywhere directly from AI. I mean, if you want,
the reason we just, this just came up was the point you just brought up, Evan, about the Gemini
meta partnership. That's the type of stuff we've seen, where they're leveraging AI to make more
efficient ad tools and then calling it AI revenue. Like that's not exactly fair if you look at the actual
ai native companies they're not making any earnings they're making some revenue now like
chat dbg's doing what they're gonna do like 10 billion revenue this year probably not making any
money and like that's a problem because it has to change you have to get to the point where the product is so compelling, is such a value add,
that like everyone has to use it.
And it's not there yet.
Because most businesses do not have any kind of AI deployed.
Let's be real.
Like restaurants,
like regular everyday small businesses,
like you think they have any kind of AI deployed?
99% of them have nothing of the sort.
Probably not using an LLM on the computer in the back of the table.
Like that's the simplest integration, but like they're probably not even doing that.
So the level of adoption is much lower than people perceive it to be.
The people in the bubble who use these things, who are on Twitter, think that like everyone is using them all the time.
who use these things who are on Twitter think that like everyone is using them all the time.
And like, even if that's true on a commercial level, like on a, sorry, on a consumer level,
that's not an earnings generator. Like that's not going to move the needle for multi-trillion
dollar companies. If a bunch of people are paying for $20 chat GPT subscriptions, that's not going
to drive earnings power. So how do you drive earnings power? You
drive earnings power by creating an AI software that is so compelling, that is so expertly adept
at everything, that you can sell it to enterprise at scale to do everything for them, to automate
everything for them, right? And then you relieve yourselves of enormous workforce costs you drive
the earnings of your companies higher and then the market goes okay ai adoption is paying off
all that money paid off because the companies who are adopting ai are seeing their eps grow by you
know a 15 kegger like that is going to convince the market that it's worth it,
but we're not there yet. And right now, based on the bid in the market over the last two years,
the market seems to be willing to be patient. I don't know how long that'll last. And that's
the biggest risk to the market. The single biggest solitary risk to the market is underwhelming AI
product development. Period.
Bigger than the Fed. It's bigger than the interest rates. It's bigger than everything.
Everything. Like bigger than the economic policy. Like everything is one bar below that.
Because if the next AI product is amazing
and truly transformational,
then this bubble continues.
It continues.
It probably gets bigger.
But if it sucks, the opposite happens,
and it's going to be horrific.
So just be ready for that.
In the next year or two years, I think,
will be a big moment where we either get these humanoid robots and self-driving
cars everywhere and we get real-world AI and software AI that's extremely, extremely capable
and PhD-level expert on all topics. When we get there, then you can sigh relief if you own these
names. but until then
everyone should be kind of holding their
marbles close to their chest because
that is a huge
risk and I don't care what you own
it doesn't have to be tech
if you own any asset long
anything
that would be horrific
so let's hope that doesn't happen
that's at least the best we can do, I think, for now.
All right, we got one more, and then we could,
if we want to close it out, we can close it out after that.
Google's actually moving up a little bit in after hours
on that story there.
on uh on that story there
i feel like you did skip off of the leu a little bit you used it to go into your gxo conversation
but uh and you maybe talked a little bit but what was the leu story today they had something around
uh increasing their uranium supply yeah so they're the only enricher in the country
they have been for a long time.
The company's been publicly traded for decades, but yeah, the DOE is backing an expansion of their
uranium enrichment capacity. And so I think it's a pretty pivotal moment. It's a validation of the
thesis. I always have, I mentioned this, but I always have a
purpose for every position in my portfolio, a very specific purpose. Like there's something
I want exposure to. It's never like broad. I'm not like, I'm never the guy that's like,
I want exposure to tech. Like no, or like I want exposure to, you know, nuclear even.
I want exposure to very specific
things in nuclear like with centrist i bought it because i wanted exposure to their ohio enrichment
plant which is the only enrichment facility in the country i wanted to own a piece of that
that was it right and today is a validation of that facility to say yes we need to expand
capacity there because we want to domesticate more,
more enrichment capacity. And we want to do it there because you guys have done it. You guys
know how to do it. You have decades of experience doing it. Why would we not do it with you?
You're the only viable commercial candidate in the country today. Everyone else is speculative,
everyone else. And there's a lot of stocks that have gone up a lot, but I chose this one for that
reason. It's, it goes quality over quantity, right right like same thing with nebius like i was talking about earlier why did i
why did i trade cypher and keep nebius because it's a better play why did i trade smr
and keep centrist because it's the better play you know i i I don't want to keep the highly speculative pre-revenue, maybe something
will happen names. I want to keep the names that I've studied and that I know are strategic assets
that have value. Like same thing with energy fuels, like white Mesa. I knew that's a valuable
asset. And I was like, I, I want to own the asset.
I don't care about the earnings.
I don't care about the revenue of the company.
That's not important.
That's not thesis.
Thesis is the asset.
And the same thing goes for Centris, which is that this facility, I think, well, this is just the first of many expansions, in my opinion.
I think, well, this is just the first of many expansions, in my opinion.
Like, this stock's the top, retook the top weighting this week from Centris in my portfolio.
I started from Nebius.
Nebius and Centris are top two, so they're neck and neck.
But it retook the top weighting from Nebius this week because it outperformed the market this week.
And it's a hell of a story it's like you know if you believe that
nuclear is coming back to america then you need enrichment capacity there's only one guy who does
it and there's still under 10 billion market cap and so it's pretty simple it's always been a simple
thesis for me most of my theses on stocks are not very long written i know like gxo i wrote a little
more than usual people have been asking me like stock doc can you write more when you share an
idea so i wrote more but i generally don't have a complicated thesis like the research is complicated
right that's hard that that i spent a lot of time on but when i present the idea to you guys i can explain it in two two sentences if i want to i try to provide color and detail in these spaces but
you should be able to do that you should be able to simply say i own centrist because i think
they're the only in uranium and richer in the cut not i think i own centrist because they're the only
uranium enricher in the country that's the thesis I own Nebius because I believe they're
the best multi-theme AI exposure on the market. I own energy fuels because I believe the white
mesa mill is the only conventional uranium mill in the country and is a strategic asset.
Like that's a one sentence on three of my highest conviction positions that I've owned for a while
that have all more than doubled. And I, I did hours of research on all of them. But the conclusion is one sentence.
That should be. Otherwise, you don't understand what you own.
If somebody asks you what a stock you own and you have to be like, well,
I read this tweet and like this and like I think this is like a cool thing and like I really think this industry is going to go up and like I really believe in that industry.
Like if that's your thesis, like you're lazy and you didn't do the work.
You should know it very well.
You should understand everything that's happening.
Like, you know, what I said on this space in May, when I bought Centris, it was 98 bucks when I was talking about all this spaces.
I said on the first day, it's the only uranium enricher in the whole country.
And the first question I got was, well, how do you know that uranium is a big industry?
And I was like dude look
it up like just type into google is centrist the only uranium richer in the united states
and you'll find out yourself like people are so people are so rudimentary with their work
that people didn't even know that about it, you know?
Or like when I was talking about white missile and I said the same thing,
I was like, it's the only conventional uranium
that's running in the country
that has the ability to process rare earths.
People were like, how do you know that?
By five minutes of research is how I know that.
I'm not some expert in uranium mining.
I'm an ex-med student who has spent my life trading stocks.
I'm not an expert in any of these industries that I talk to you about, guys.
You think I'm an expert in logistics?
I just talked about GX.
You think I'm an expert in logistics?
I have no logistics experience.
I just read stuff and try to learn.
I'm a regular person.
I just try to learn stuff.
I read stuff, try to understand.
When I don't understand stuff, ask questions to llms or to
google or i watch a youtube video and i'm like oh okay that's how uranium enrichment works
like it's just effort it's like basic fundamental effort that's all it is
and you'll find these things and you'll find them often before the crowd because
like when you get under a 10 billion market cap the lights turn off on wall street
for the most part what i mean by that is that like the spotlights turn off
like the spotlights turn off and you have an opportunity with smid cap companies which is
what i specialize in to capture alpha that is not yet widely recognized you don't really have that
opportunity with 100 200 300 million dollar companies i'm not saying you can't make money
owning them they go up a lot i'm not saying that at all the meg seven have been a terrific thing to own i own meg seven names but
the real super performing stocks are always smid caps you know 200 million to 10 billion
market capitalization that's a big range i prefer two to ten i prefer mids. I'm not a big small cap guy.
I occasionally have a few in my portfolio.
I have one right now, DPRO, the drone stock.
I've talked about it.
Hell of a chart, by the way.
I mean, if anybody likes charts, go pull up the quarterly chart on DPRO.
Might be the prettiest quarterly chart in all of small cap land.
But sorry, I was taking a sip of the drink.
My throat is fried.
I've talked so much today.
What was I going to say?
Oh, I lost my train of thought.
What was I just saying?
I don't know.
I lost my train of thought.
I am here.
We're basically at the end of the day.
The reason that I didn't pop in sooner
is because I didn't know exactly where you were at,
so I was going to be like,
all right, we'll give him a second.
No, I don't even remember.
I just totally lost my train of thought
if I took a sip of that.
Anyway. Yeah. anyway yeah
centrist energy
sometimes it goes back to
sometimes it goes back to you
sometimes it goes back to you
centrist energy was doing pretty good
kratos was another one that was moving
there was a lot of geopolitical talks and stuff going on
there you go
what do you want to say
there's just more alpha there that is able to be found like you go. What do you want to say? I was talking about why I focus on some mid-caps. There's just more
alpha there that is able to be found.
You're not going to be able to
find things that people
don't know in really big
stocks. Everyone knows
everything about the really big stocks.
You're not going to be able to find things and be like,
oh, people don't recognize this, or they aren't
pricing it in. You find
that a lot with mid-caps. For people that don't recognize this or they aren't pricing it in you find that a lot with mid caps
you know and for people that don't
okay sorry i just got a uh email from my, oh, I could have this one. Um,
people think that, uh, small caps are dangerous and they are. Most of them are like debt laden
and you know, they're small caps for a reason. Mid caps are where you find companies that have
sort of graduated from that shitty stage, right?
Like the two to 10 billion market cap ranges where you find companies that
it's kind of like gotten over the hump,
you know,
of being like niche industry players who are trying to get the big contracts.
You find companies that are a little more mature,
tend to have much better debt servicing profiles.
In fact,
most of them,
the good ones tend to be just fine just fine with servicing their debt.
And they tend to have some kind of advantage
that allowed them to grow into their form, right?
You don't go from being a $100 million company
to a $2 billion company through magic.
You have to execute or have some kind of competitive advantage.
And sometimes it's just the management team, sometimes it's a product, sometimes it's,
you know, whatever, it can be any number of things. And when you do that, you get sort of a
pre-filtered basket of small cap growth, in a way. If you know where to look, you know, I'm not implying that it's as
easy as I'm making it sound, but you get sort of a pre-filtered basket of small cap growth,
which is what I look for. I'm looking for stocks, a lot of upside. And it gives you an ability to
get pure play exposure more easily because these larger companies that are more diversified and
own parts of multiple different businesses, when these hot
themes come up in the markets, investors are looking for really, really specific, smart
investors are looking for a really, really specific way to get exposure to that specific
thing. And if you track with that line of thinking, you can find these sort of gem stocks along the way, like Centris, like Nebius, like Kratos, that fit all the boxes that are sort of sleeper stocks or have been for a few years that are sitting in that mid-cap range.
And now all of a sudden they've won thematic relevance from the market, right?
They've won relevance because relevance is not usually earned
in markets. Thematic relevance, it's given, right? It's given by the narrative. Like
when Trump came into office and he's like, we're going to revive the nuclear industry.
He gave the nuclear industry thematic relevance. The nuclear industry didn't do something last year,
didn't do something marvelous. There was not some new nuclear technology that was invented that caused people to suddenly become interested in nuclear
stocks. They became interested in because there was a policy shift towards them. And this is how
every theme works. Like every kind of hot thematic in the markets is because there is either policy
shift or an industry shift towards there. There's momentum. And so as a result of that momentum,
investors are seeking exposure rapidly
and they find these stocks, right?
Next-gen defense.
Investors eventually started finding Kratos.
Stock went from the 20s to 80 bucks very fast.
AI, data center, autonomous robots.
People were looking for exposure to those themes.
They realized Nebius was a multi-theme exposure.
Boom, they get a Microsoft deal.
Now that stock's 100 bucks from 23 in a few months.
You know, Centrist, people started realizing,
oh my God, the only uranium richer, the only one,
slowly more and more people realized
went from 100 to 200 to 300.
And I think we'll be at 400 and 500 and 600
in the next year or two years.
And you look at, I could go on and on and on, all these names.
At first, there's a slow recognition.
There's an appreciation of price.
And then there gets wider recognitions.
And then all of a sudden you have B of A upgrading it.
Like B of A's upgrade on Centris came when the stock was like 190 bucks.
I bought it a month before that B of A upgrade in 96.
Because B of A is not really looking at those mid-caps that intently.
B of A usually doesn't come out and initiate reports on mid-cap stocks.
They're focused on stocks that are a little bigger.
And so that's the thing.
It's like you find these niches before the big spotlight gets put on them.
And then you're positioned already you might
be sitting in low ivy calls you might be sitting in shares with a deep cost-based advantage then
the market finds the opportunity and now you're sitting pretty and now the position becomes so
easy to manage for the rest of the time so anyway i gotta do a workshop on discord uh pretty soon
here so and then i'm gonna go to the gym gym right after. We'll wrap it up here.
But we'll be...
I appreciate you, Stock Talk.
You should definitely make sure you're following Stock Talk.
I had a two-minute recap for the last two hours I missed today.
No, you're good.
And a five-minute rant on top of that.
I didn't get a good one today.
No, I'm just playing.
I got stuck on a stream, but it was a great stream.
But I missed out on this.
I appreciate everyone.
I'm sure it was a great show.
I'm just going to go with that because I was unable to be here,
but stock talk holding it down. Appreciate it. Who's going to win tonight?
You're good. I think it's a tough one. It's a, it's like,
don't make me jinx it.
I don't, I don't have a good call on it. So we'll see. I don't know.
You guys tell me in the comments down there
who's going to win, Seattle, Arizona.
All right, everyone.
We'll be back next week.
Stocks on Spaces, 3 p.m. Eastern each and every day,
Monday through Thursday.
Appreciate it, everyone. Thank you.
