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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Dec. 3, 2025 Duration: 3:17:24Space Recording
Short Summary
The conversation delves into the bullish trends in the crypto market, emphasizing the impact of upcoming Fed decisions, the integration of AI technologies, and the potential for significant growth as various sectors adapt to new innovations. Participants express optimism about the resilience of key stocks and the overall market, suggesting a favorable outlook for crypto investments.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. What is up, everyone?
This is Ryan.
Evan is somewhere.
I don't know where, but he'll be pulling in soon.
Maybe join us in the back half of the show today.
So I'll hold it down for us a little bit.
You finally had enough of him, didn't you?
You finally just couldn't take it anymore.
You said you're done.
I said, look, man, Options Mike, he just texts me every day.
He's sick of you.
He wants me to come back. So here I am. We'll see. I texts me every day. He's sick of you. He wants me to come back.
So here I am.
We'll see.
I have a boring day in the market.
I mean, a little morning dip, the weird Microsoft story.
Kind of a weird day.
I don't know about boring.
Yeah, I mean, the price action's been pretty boring across most of the names.
I mean, there's been a few that, you know, just, if you got in somewhere, right, you wrote it.
But outside of that, yeah, I don't know.
It's interesting.
Just a little market update here.
We are up 0.3% on the NASDAQ.
We're right back to where we fell from this morning,
pre-market highs
by up almost half a percent. And if you look at SPX breaking over the kind of triple top that
it's made up here at the 6850, about 10 points over that right now. So kind of constructive look
if you look at it that way. IWM outperforming 1.7% up on the day right now. The Dow Jones up 1% as well.
VIX down, we'll call it 3.75%, sub-16 on the VIX right now.
And your big names, your winners, losers, MAG7, whatever popular names.
Hood stands out.
There was an interesting story around that that we'll probably touch on at some point today.
That one is up, what, 5.8%. Tesla up 4%.
Pound tier having a good day, up 2.6%.
I see market leader Walmart, new all-time high, up 2% today.
What a stock that is. Google, AMD, Costco also green, kind of across my list here. And some other names just
going sideways. NVIDIA hasn't really even budged the entire day. That's a wild chart. Microsoft
didn't recover the entire drop. The market did, but just hanging out, recovered some of it,
sitting there down about a percent and a half. And Options Mike, what's up what's uh what's going on i mean dude i look at this and
i go okay we get another dip and then we just grind up all day into power hour and maybe we
just revert back kind of like the opening price or a little above the highs and this lasts like
45 minutes and it's the same thing that i've seen for like three four days in a row i feel like i'm
watching the same episode on repeat right now.
We're kind of in a box and we're trying to break it out of it on the SPY here to the high side, right?
You look at the last four candles.
They all look pretty similar here.
Let's talk. So this morning we got ADP payroll, which was a negative 35,000 number or something like that.
And the market didn't care because the market just wants rate cuts, right?
The market, this market just wants cheap money. It wants the fed to go from qt to qe so whatever it takes
to get that to happen the market wants it one of the more interesting stories coming out today is
that wall street and the bond market is against asset becoming the next fed speaker they're trying
to talk trump out of it uh they don't want, you know, that's kind of an interesting little sidebar that's going
on there.
Then we had that news from the information on Microsoft, and it kind of felt like that
was bogus when it first came out.
You know, Microsoft, why would they just come out and all of a sudden lower their AI sales
guidance for the year?
And they came out and they disputed it.
They said, no, we did not.
And then the market started to bounce back up i was already bouncing up um i'm long some microsoft calls into december i think in the 490s yes the 490s um i think that you know this is i
don't know why it didn't bounce all the way back. Jeffries came out and defended them.
It is what it is.
Not the easiest of action today when you look around the markets.
So the SPY is on the highs of the day.
The Qs are on the highs of the day.
The IWM was very strong along with the energy names and the financials.
The financials have been raging all day.
Kind of safety.
Home builders have been very strong.
So if you look at the X xhb you know big big move
up in the home builders there as well tech has been kind of a mixed bag today meta which looks
so good and ready to break out did nothing apple popped to a new all-time high in the open and is
now lows in the day and been selling off um bitcoin's holding in nicely and then you have
your tech names google had a nice push back up i've
been trading today tesla i traded that for a while nice big move up in tesla today broke
above the 50 day looks very strong here finally i traded hood a couple times today i'm out of it
now but hood back above the 50 day and looking very very strong here as well uh and you know
that's kind of where i focus today but you know there was the strength
of the smhs they came all the way back but it's not names like nvidia and amd it's the
it's the um the the companies that make the equipment to produce the chips it's amat it's
lrcx it's asml you know the market's kind of just changing around and moving around uber was up on
news of their ceo going to taiwan and hong k Uber was up on news of their CEO going to Taiwan and Hong Kong.
I guess they're trying to get Uber into there.
It's just kind of an interesting market.
They're rotating around names.
We sit in this box, and we're waiting for something to nudge us out here.
So the way I kind of look at this now is we just had a big five-day up move, right?
You look at the charts, and not this not this past Friday the Friday before reversed we had a
big five day up move now we've had three days of sideways action digesting that and the eight days
caught up almost to the bottom of the range and I think you know the market's ready here now if it
wants to push now maybe it gets a little dip first and boy do they love to play games in this market
but things overall to me still look good it look bullish we haven't broken any key levels and
we've just been consolidating this move for the last three days so you know i don't have a lot of
short-term risk on i just have those microsoft calls i'm holding right now for december expiration
and then i look at names like amazon i cannot figure out for the life of me why they dump that
name every day but but they do.
But I still have faith in it, so I still have conviction there.
That's it.
Isn't it Bezos is just still selling?
He's sitting on the sale, him and his wife?
I mean, maybe.
We haven't seen any reports, right?
When they're selling, they have to come out and say it.
Yeah, but there's a delay, right?
They only do it quarterly.
Three days.
Oh, is it three days?
If you're doing something like that, three days after the sale, you have to come out and announce it.
Yeah, they file the plan or whatever, but then every time they sell, they do have to disclose that it was a sell.
Right.
I think they have three trading days, not three actual days.
I know that answer if he gets connected up here.
But yeah, Mike, I want to ask you, though,
I look at the indices, time consolidation sideways is healthy.
It's a healthy signal here.
I thought it would have been easier.
I was kind of hoping for a pullback
because I thought it would have been an easier setup to trade.
But either way, healthy consolidation across the markets.
You still have a bunch of charts that are doing all different things.
There's some charts that I like, some charts that I hate.
And I look at the indices and I'm pretty neutral just right now until it either breaks down
a back test or consolidates across the board here and, you know, kind of builds a little
shelf and then pops out of it, which I'm kind of on the verge of doing that as I look at it here.
And I'm curious if you're kind of in the same boat. I mean, is there are there bigger I mean, you can trade day in and day out.
Right. But are there any like bigger swings that you're just excited about right now?
Or are you kind of just in a sit and wait for this consolidation to break out?
Market pop to the highs here. I'm kind of waiting for it to break out.
I'm just finding things to do every day.
I mean, there are things to do.
There are names that are pushing.
There are names that are having momentum.
And then there's a lot of names that aren't.
You know, I missed on the banks today,
even though I thought they might move today.
I'm not overly excited about...
My long-term holds, I'm not touching.
I haven't sold any of them.
I also do not feel like this market is extremely excited right now.
I feel like this market's kind of more nervous than anything else.
It's it's it's letting every little thing bother it like that.
Microsoft News today, NVIDIA came dumping down.
A&D came dumping down. Right.
They're letting every little thing bother it right now.
And that's a market that's jittery or nervous or just end of the year profit taking.
They're just looking for any reason to take profits.
I think this will clear itself up in the near future.
You know, we talked about getting a bigger dip.
We didn't get it.
You know, we got a 5% pullback in the market, which is normal.
But that was it.
And we were just sitting here.
I mean, I think the longer we consolidate here, the more likely we go higher.
We don't get any selling. If the sellers were going going to come back they would have come back already right you know after that last thursday candle
that big down red candle on the friday up you know monday this week or yesterday or today the
sellers should have come back and they haven't it tells you that they're done they're good enough for now.
What do you think is the next,
is it the Fed at this point?
Is that the next thing that we're all looking forward to?
And I'm just curious
how much weight they'll put in Powell's
comments knowing that this is
possibly his last real meeting.
So we're not getting non-farm payroll on friday we're not getting non-farm payroll for the month of october or november
at this point um we are going to get p well we're supposed to get pce on friday although
you know we'll see they said that last week and they pulled it up, you know, two days before.
That, I think, is a player here.
The market's going to see that inflation is not going up.
And that will play into the Fed decision next week.
Because if you get a hot, you know, we're kind of in a funky place where you have the economy,
the job market seems to be weakening.
And if inflation starts going up,
that puts the Fed in a really tough place
on what they want to do.
They're going to want to cut a little bit,
you know, not a lot possibly for the job market,
but they're not going to want to do too much
or do anything here because of the, you know,
inflation going up.
So I think that's your first thing on Friday.
And then we can focus on the Fed on next Wednesday.
That'd be interesting. Brian, I'll come back over to you, Mike. Brian, what's going on? What's your
take around? What's the current, I guess, state of the market, where we're at, what we're doing?
How are you feeling about it? I don't know,
you may have shared this some this week, but you know, humor me a little bit here.
What are you seeing out there? Are you looking at any opportunity in certain areas? Are you kind
of in a sit and wait mode? Are you just kind of comfortably sitting long? What's your approach
look like right now? Man, you're giving me so many options there. I don't know which one to pick.
Man, you've given me so many options there. I don't know which one to pick.
Yes. Just say yes.
Yes. Next speaker. Yeah. Yes. Next speaker. Well, look, I've been on this. I've been on these spaces consistently at least twice a week since.
How long have you guys been doing this? For like two, three years. So it's I've been saying the same thing. I started to raise cash in October, not because I saw anything necessarily
worrisome in the market, but just because it had been such a goddamn good year.
And the reason we do, look, I'll speak for myself, right? The reason I do this is not just to make
money. It's to make money so that I can have financial security, stability for my family,
so I can support causes and people I care about, so that I can have financial security, stability for my family, so I can support causes and people I care about,
so that I can have a better quality of life.
And if you're just sitting there
staring at the screen 24-7,
even if you're making a ton of money,
is that a better life?
So in October, I started to raise cash.
I started to take money out of the market to pay myself.
Like, if you have a great year, pay yourself, take some money out, you know,
put it, buy something, do something nice for someone, put it in an investment, whatever.
So I started doing that in October, which I talked about here,
and kind of reduced my active daily trading.
I love the fall, so I wanted to be super present during the fall.
You know, my kids are at the age where they're almost going to be out of the house in a couple years,
so I've been really present during this fall period, still watching the market, still engaging with my community.
The core positions that I've held through the last couple months, I've been building a position in Bros, which is doing pretty good.
Last couple months, I've been building a position in Bros, which is doing pretty good.
I still have a position in Tesla that I had hedged earlier this year and covered the hedges,
I think in the beginning of, when I say hedged, I sold calls against the position
like in maybe August, maybe a little bit before that, bottom back in November.
August maybe, maybe a little bit before that, bottom back in November. I've been accumulating
a position in Poet, which I've got about an average price of $5.76. So it's finally
profitable. I'm accumulating a position in Oscar. But these aren't really trades. These are longer
term, what I call active investments. I would like to hold them for a long time. And what I
will do is I will trade around
them. If they get ahead of themselves, I'll trim a little bit. If they get a little bit oversold,
I'll buy some. I might sell some puts lower to get the premium. And then if the stock goes lower.
So I've been kind of taking not a hands-off approach, but I've just been taking a little
bit more or a little bit less of a active, you know, micromanaging
every day approach to the market.
What I, you know, every day after the close, I do a review for my subscribers and I told
them this yesterday, just like I did the day before.
And I've said this a few times over the last few months and I know it's boring and I don't
know it doesn't sound exciting, but there is nothing technically wrong with this market. There just isn't. I mean, if you want to nitpick, you could
say that, okay, that rally that we had during Thanksgiving week was on lower volume. But I can
go back over the last two years and look at probably a dozen or more times when we broke out of a range, when we had
a nice one or two week run where volume was lower. If it's between volume and price, I always go with
price. But I can't find anything technically wrong with this market. It's above all the moving
averages, right? I use four moving averages, the 8, the 21, the 50, and the 200. It's above all those.
It's above the all-time high VWAPs. What's even better is all
four of the indexes that I follow, or indexes or ETFs, SPX, Qs, Dow Jones, and IWM, they're all in
sync, right? So, you know, we've had different times of the year where the Qs and SPX were moving
up, but the Dow and IWM were rolling over and you're trying to figure out which one's going to win, right?
They're all in sync.
So the secret to trading, to profitable trading, is it's goddamn boring.
It should be boring, right?
You should just be doing cookie cutter procedures over and over and over again.
It shouldn't be exciting.
You shouldn't get all fired up and get all your juices going. It shouldn't be exciting. You shouldn't get all fired up and get all your
juices going. It should just be boring. And right now, and for most of this year, except for maybe
Tariff Gate, that's what it's been. And Mike has said it a couple of times, like, we're just going
to grind up. We're just going to grind up. And we just keep grinding up and keep grinding up. So yeah, it's, it's been a great year. It's a, it's a great fall.
I'm very glad to be less active going into the end of the year. Um, and right now, I, you know,
I mean, anything could happen tomorrow, but as I see it right now, this market looks technically,
uh, like an A plus. One of the things that I, um, I want to ask back is when I look at that, I've asked this question
to a lot of people, I just haven't heard your take on it yet. And options, Mike, I think I've
asked you, but when I look at the top 10 NASDAQ weighted stocks, so your Mag7, Netflix, Costco,
Broadcom, they're all doing completely different things right now.
Does that set up CHOP? Does that mean anything to you at all? Does that say, okay, there's,
at some point, things are going to work their way back together. But does that mean anything to you,
I guess, would be the basic principle of that. Because I look at a couple are at all-time highs,
a couple are well below a 200-day, a couple are in the middle of nowhere. But any thoughts around that? It doesn't mean that
much to me because I have a pretty simple process. I always say that trading isn't easy,
but it doesn't have to be complicated. The first thing I do, again, when I talk to subscribers,
first thing I do is I give them my take on where we are in terms of risk off to risk off in the total market.
And that is basically looking at the indexes.
Are we in a risk off mode where we're going to do fewer trades, smaller position sizes, and shorter timeframes to minimize our exposure?
Or just step out to have no exposure?
Or are we in a risk on market where we're going to press things because the environment is conducive to making profits? We're going to have more trades. We're going to
hold them longer, hopefully swing them and have larger position sizes. So I start right there,
right? That's the first metric I look at. And then depending on that metric, I look at individual
names. And when I say I look at individual names, they really look at,
they surface themselves. Like I don't go hunting them out. Like I will, you know, I've got filters
set for when things are breaking certain moving averages. If a stock breaks down that I liked at
one point, I'll put an alert at a key support resistance level. And I won't even look at it
again until I get an alert, right? So I'm constantly getting stuff surfaced like that to me.
So I won't see the stocks that are not performing as well.
I'll just see the ones that are hitting my criteria.
I will say this, though, in kind of answering your question.
This market, again, with the tariff gate part of it a little bit accepted, this has been
a very forgiving market for most people this year.
You know, people have had the luxury of buying at the wrong time, of not obeying their rules,
if they even have any risk rules, and still getting bailed out by this market, still getting
rewarded. I think since that October, was it October 10th when we had that one big down day? I think since then,
the market's gotten a little more particular. It hasn't bailed everybody out. You can look at some
of the hot stocks like the Oakhlos and the ASTSs and the QS, those things that people were riding
and then they started to pull back and people are like, yeah, I'm going to buy the pullback.
And then they're buying the third and the fourth and the fifth and the sixth pullback.
And now they're in trouble, right?
So I guess there are a little bit more disparate price actions between stocks than maybe there were at different types of the year.
But like I said, for me, it's big picture.
Are we risk on, risk off?
Where are we on that continuum from zero to 10?
And then I let the best names be surfaced.
And then I just trade them based upon my methodology.
You know, Brian, I think it's just a market of names right now.
It's what they want and what they don't want.
And I'm not caught up in the worry of it, right?
It's just, yep, they want tesla finally and
tesla's look good for a while they finally want apple apple's look good for a while
you know hood's been a favorite name for the whole year it's not a surprise they're buying that back
to me um you know they're rotating around and it's just i think people are looking for problems
where there are none right now or there there are, but they're not.
The market doesn't care, and that's all that matters.
Like Michael Burry.
Yeah.
Michael Burry is starting to sound like a real just jackass right now.
I mean, God, the man is just so sour.
It's funny, though, right?
Because he's now transformed from trying to make money from the market to make money as a publisher.
the market to make money as a publisher, right? He's now on Substack and he's number one. And
He's now on Substack, and he's number one.
that's a lot, let me tell you, it's a lot easier to make money doing a newsletter than it is to
actually trade. But to your point about it being, you know, a market of stocks, stock market,
whatever, we know this because, you know, I put a post out. So if you don't, I have a pinned tweet at the top of my Twitter feed and it says,
fun fact, I'm more palatable in person because sometimes I come across as an a-hole when we do
these things like that. I'm really not an a-hole, right? But sometimes I do.
Oh, come on, man. I wanted you to be that guy.
In person, you'd love me, Mike. I sure would.
I sometimes do a-hole-ish things.
And so in October, I put a post out, it's a little tongue-in-cheek, and it said, you still have time to ruin your year.
And I wanted to get people's attention.
And what I talked about in this is like, don't push it.
There's so many people out there that think they know what they're doing this year that have gotten a ride on the coattails of a massive ripping market. Please don't give it
all back. And what we've seen in the last six to eight weeks is we've seen a lot of people,
and I mean a lot of people, blow up. I have a person in my community that is a good guy. He's a solid guy. He's been around for a while.
And he emailed me and told me he made life-changing money this year, like life-changing money. And the
last six to eight months, he gave it all back. Okay. So Brian, to your point, I got a lot of
people that were saying, why are you selling? Remember, remember I told you guys, I came on
here, I bought heavily into the April lows, right? I did not, you know, I said, I went in heavy.
And on the way up, I kept trimming, trimming, trimming, trimming.
And everybody's like, why are you selling?
I'm like, because that's my methodology.
And I don't break from it.
You know, I get a certain part of a move and I take some profits.
Because if you don't, and it comes back in your face, what do you do?
Yeah, and I see people all the time that talk about how much they're up for the year.
And the first question I say to myself, are those open positions?
Because if they're open positions, you're not really up that much.
You'll be up as much as you are when they click.
Now, some people know how to manage their positions.
Some people know where they'll be out, right?
Someone's up 75%.
They know that their stops are in place.
And if they all get hit, they'll be up 65% for the year. But I see people all the time, right? And this is why
I, again, I took money out of the market. You have to pay yourself at some point.
And I feel sick. My heart aches for a lot of people in the last six to eight weeks. But
when you've been doing this long enough, you can see it. You can just see it. And you can see it
because you've been there. I was there. I've been there multiple long enough, you can see it. You can just see it. And you can see it because you've been there.
I was there.
I've been there multiple times where I thought I was a genius, and I just got the benefit of a market that was super forgiving.
So this last six to eight weeks has changed tone and tenor in the market.
It's washed out a lot of people that didn't know what they're doing.
But the people that do know what they're doing are still fine. And they're still going to have a great year.
I, you know, it's Brian, it's your point.
I keep getting people messaging me about like ASTS and Oklo and NNE.
And these, these names that are, are, are, are really so far pre-revenue.
I'm like, dude, what do you want to touch? I want, I own these.
I own these higher. What do I do? I'm like, I don't know what to tell you to do.
I, I, I never owned them. I traded them a couple of times. Does What do I do? I'm like, I don't know what to tell you to do. I never own them.
I trade them a couple of times.
Does that make sense?
But I never want, never in my long account did I add any of those names.
And yeah, I missed out on a big move, but I don't care.
I'm like, but you know, these guys are pre-revenue.
You know, these are the kind of stocks that get killed, especially in a market like this.
Because who wants to own something that is two to three years, from turning a making a you know having a dime of
revenue coming in that is worth anything so there's there's two two things you can do with a position
with three things you can do that one thing is you sell calls against it yeah so so look if you if
if you want to play the long game and you want to get out of the position eventually you just sell
calls like an mfr on on the regular right 45 to 60 days out and you just hopefully get out of the position eventually, you just sell calls like an MF-er on the regular, right? 45 to 60 days out. And you just hopefully get your cost basis back to a break even.
Or you just sell your position, right? And you just go, sorry, you know, or you take your equity
position, roll it into, it's funny. Someone will sit there and lose $10,000 in an equity position,
but they won't just invest $10,000 in some long-dated calls, right, out of the money.
It's like, it's the same idea.
If you really think this thing's going to the moon, then what does it matter if you lose $10,000 in options and $10,000 in the stock?
If you do it in the options, you buy yourself some time, you lock in a maximum. I mean, I got people that are reticent to pay 300 bucks a year for my
service that will also sit through a $100,000 drawdown. So I don't know what goes through
people's minds, but there's lots of ways you can figure these things out.
Trust me, I get it. It is what it is., again, so I used to do a newsletter every year, a big PDF.
It was like 50-plus pages of my year ahead, right?
What I like, what I'm looking at.
I stopped doing it because it was so much work, and I used to pay some people to proofread it and help me out with it, right?
And people were like, I don't want that.
I'm like, all right, so now I just do a webinar every year for my members,
which we actually can make a date for probably around the end of the year.
But, you know, you always have to always have a look ahead.
And, you know, I go out now and my thought process is still short term on this year,
but long term I'm thinking about next year and what next year is going to look like
and trying to wrap my head around it.
And, you know, for me, I'm thinking this next year is going to be volatile, right? With the midterm elections
and everything, I think next year could be setting up for a volatile year, especially if things
stagnate where the White House can't get what it wants for Congress, could be some issues there.
So I'm thinking next year could be a volatile year as we go into that November timeframe,
especially. And and so you know
you look at this and say okay what do i want and what's going to be the theme of next year and
you know as i'm looking around i still think this ai trade is going to be the theme of next year
it just it may may spread out it may move into different types of names but i still think this
is probably going to be the place it's going to be because it doesn't seem to be sputtering right
now as long as these companies like microsoft and tesla and meta and excenter are paying 100 plus billion a year to
keep building out these you know their their infrastructure this trade is going to keep going
rampant you might be right you might be right yeah but now if we fast forward to earning season
in two months right and so a bunch of these guys come out and said we cut our budget by 30% or 40%, that would indicate to me there's problems.
That would be a real red flag.
Yeah, you know, I'll shut up here in a second because I've been monologizing.
But, you know, I don't –
Good conversation.
I don't – well, we'll have to let the audience be the judge of that. I don't – I'm not a fundamental trader, but I do pay attention to fundamental cues.
And sometimes I see things like, hmm, maybe I should pay attention to that.
So remember three years ago when ChatGPT was launched and Sam Altman was talking about how it was going to be transformative and everything was going to be done for everyone.
We were going to have to tax companies because they were going to make so much money and everyone was going to get UBI and it was going to be transformative and everything was going to be done for everyone. We were going to have to tax companies because they were going to make so much money
and everyone was going to get UBI and it was going to save the world.
Well, now they're talking about maybe we should have ads and maybe we should have porn.
Well, the other day I logged on to chat – yesterday, I logged on to chat GPT
and there was a little bubble that popped up above the prompt that said,
hey, need some help with holiday shopping
we can we can we can help you figure out what you want and i just said oh they're now they've now
got affiliate relationships and again that doesn't mean that the ai trade is over but
there's a little shine off of the apple with some of this stuff and so i'm just going to be
a little more aware by the the way, someone missed out.
Jensen is on Rogan today.
So if you didn't know that,
you probably want to check that podcast out.
I don't know if that's from position of defense or offense.
What's that?
Him appearing on the Rogan show.
You don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing?
Well, I don't know if he appeared on there because he obviously has not for a couple years now.
And then now that...
Maybe I'm speculating a little bit,
but it's pretty clear that Gemini is starting to have a lot of traction in the AI trade.
They would have filmed that before that anyway.
No correlation.
Oh, God.
We let Evan back in.
That's what i was gonna say
so i i've gone on record and i'll say this again i think at the end of the day i think
san altman's in for a massive fall i think you know that company and him and he's just
it reminds me of zuckerberg before zuckerberg figured out, Vlad over at Hood before he figured out.
Some of these guys who just, you know, these CEOs who think they can do whatever.
I'm sorry.
And I think that, you know, he's going to have a fall.
And it might actually come out when they try to IPO and they can't get the value they're looking for.
Their investors get pissed off.
But I think you already saw them with the code red now, right?
We have a huge problem. They're starting to lose this war they haven't even IPO yet that's a huge
problem for them well that'll be a litmus test right i mean uh and yeah and anthrop did anthropic
say they're going ai or going to ipo i thought i saw something like that i can't remember i've seen
talk of it but they have an official anthropic has not said anything yet officially uh i had mine
was they were in talks doing it in 2026 they're exploring options got it so that look that'll be an interesting
like i don't know if you remember when facebook went public right that was these this is this is
like when you've got when you're holding you know speaking of michael burry this is when you're
holding a bunch of unmarkable securities you know you can't market to market because they're just not, you know, they're a little opaque. And then finally you do like,
we're going to see what the valuation is of these companies at some point. And it's going to be
very interesting to see if they are able to, you know, get what they think they're going to get
or more, or if they fall short. You know, something else that's becoming a concern to me is, who's Evan?
My room is giving me a hard time because I was talking on both places at the same time.
Is you seeing some of these companies, IBM was the latest one, coming out and saying
the cost of building these data centers will never be able to turn a profit at the current
cost on what's going on.
Boy, that has to start becoming a concern.
That could be something that's weighing here
on some of these names too.
Anyway, I've talked a ton.
I'll let some other people talk.
What did you see out there in these markets today?
Heard your voice there for a few seconds,
but I'd love to hear some of your thoughts.
Anything that was said that you want to chime in on or anything that we haven't mentioned yet, of course, anything that stuck
out to you, maybe news stories, anything like that? Well, today is definitely a glorious day.
I have some very large positions in my portfolio that are just like on semiconductor. It's up
11, almost 11% today. It's just ripping into clothes.
I have no idea why.
I can't find anything on it.
But, I mean, you had the technicals line up,
and also this company's guiding for basically re-accelerating growth,
10% to 12% in the next couple of years.
And the stock has been trading as if it's been declining revenue growth,
which it has been.
And this next quarter that's going to be coming up,
I do expect on Semiconductor to have a continued declining growth.
But I think the market's going to look past it
because they know that these are going to be some very easy comps for them
to re-accelerate to the upside, probably a bit more significantly.
They're guiding for 10% to 12% in the next couple of years by 2027.
But I think the re-acceleration before that is going to be much greater because of those
comps.
On top of that, they're going to have margin expansion.
They're already partnering with multiple companies from the OEM sector.
So they have two different segments that are growing very quickly that are really going
to bring them out of this woodwork.
And one of them is automotive.
You're already seeing that EV automotive deployments and deliveries in ex-US. I would even add also US from Toyota,
which we heard a report from. Don't know if Toyota is actually a client of On Semiconductor,
but we do know that there's a lot of oil manufacturers that use On Semiconductors,
power chips. If that EV market comes back pretty strong with rates coming down,
it's only going to get a lot stronger for their supply chain, especially since they're the only
US-based player when it comes to building power chips for a lot of these manufacturers. In fact,
they're continuing to build more factories, one in New Hampshire coming up, which does qualify
them for the Chips Act. There really are no other competitors with this company that are based in the US and also have a very good profitability balance sheet and income statement. On top of
that, their other vertical is building vertical GAN technology or gallium nitride toward AI service
and infrastructure. And they have a lot of companies that they're partnered with in that one. Again,
this goes with the on-shoring theme that a lot of people have talked about very strongly, especially StockTalk, is that
there are companies that the US is going to favor if it includes bringing supply chain
in-house, meaning increased GDP, more jobs, and also, of course, higher margins for companies
since everything's going to be local. Now, it might be a little bit of a bump in the road as we do transition onto that.
But I think that this, along with Amcor, that StockTalk's been talking about, along with
many other companies, TSM, Intel, all that, that's bringing all the production on-shoring.
I think OnSemiductor is one of the beneficiaries of that.
And the great part is, I think the chart looked terrible just a couple of weeks ago.
Like, it looked disgusting, right?
It was trading below all the moving averages, all the monthly moving averages.
And now today, it's trading above all the daily moving averages.
Even on the weekly, it's coming up toward the 100 week.
It's still below the 200 week on the, sorry, that was the weekly.
On the monthly, it's actually above the 200 month.
It's above the 100-month.
It's coming up toward the 20-month and the 50-month above it.
I think that the stock, considering that trade is at, well, I think now it's about four times price to sale.
But given its peers in the market, I think this company still trades at a pretty attractive valuation.
But also on top of that, it's really a sector of chip supply chain that hasn't really
been appreciated too much. A lot of the money and speculation with building gallium nitride
and basically anything to do with power chips for AI servers and infrastructure was really looked
upon other companies. That includes Monolithic Power, which is actually one of the competitors. It's actually doing pretty well. It also includes ex-US companies or mostly housed
ex-US, including CyTime. But another one a lot of people heard about is Navitas. Not exactly a
direct competitor, but also in the same sector. But what I would say is that a lot of the profitability for a lot
of these smaller companies that have joint partnerships with NVIDIA and gain a lot of hype,
they're not looking to really be as profitable as On7 Connector is today. They're already a
profitable company today. They're going to continue to expand on their margins as they
discussed in previous earnings and previous slides. They did partner with InnoScience, which is a major gallium nitride producer in the US. And on top of that, well,
we have the data center theme, the major data center buildout that we've all been hearing about,
major investment in CapEx put into it. This is a critical component when you're building a lot
of servers and data centers. You do need that specialized precision powering for a lot of
these accelerated chips, especially the ASIC chips that are coming out. I mean, they're one of the
beneficiaries of all of it. And what better is to say when you get it manufactured in the US? Now,
I'm not going to sit here and say like, I'm the one who thought about this on-shoring theme. I
mean, a lot of that comes from StockTalk. But if you look around in the market, there are a lot of companies that do fit this theme and that are still not really,
still have below fair value today. Now, on semiconductor, now it's up over 11%. Like,
geez, I don't even know what's happening here. But if, of course, their valuation come to fair
value. And when it does that point, I'll probably maybe take some profits on the calls and stuff.
But when you have a lot of these retail stocks that have been basically running for quite
some time and aren't really catching a bit today since the lows that we just had a couple
weeks ago, the money's going somewhere.
The money's broadening out in the market right now.
You see the RSP is pretty green today.
It was green actually ahead of the S&P 500 today.
You see IWM small cap sector up almost 2% today.
It's going somewhere.
And I would say that a lot of it is not going toward the speculative companies, pre-revenue
companies.
A lot of it's going toward quality companies, which is really what you want to see in this
market.
You don't want to see the Oklos and all those companies being pushed up to like crazy valuations.
You want to see the
companies that actually have tangible revenues and profitability today to catch most of the bidding
and then as the bull market continues which it had been in the prior then you see the money start to
allocate into more riskier assets but i'm liking the action i'm seeing today in the market i i do
think that maybe we might be getting a little extended, but I'm not really going to
play that game on a short-term scale because we are above major moving averages on the indices.
But one thing that I've noticed today, though, is that a lot of mega caps are lagging quite a
good amount today. Netflix is down 5% today. Microsoft basically undid a little pop that
they had earlier today. And I want to say it's trading the low of day, but pretty close to it.
Maybe that was just an excuse for the market makers to sell Microsoft.
Who knows? Amazon's lagging a little bit today, but that did have a pretty tremendous week from its Black Friday sales. Meta is about flat today. Google is seeing a little bit of pickup here,
but Tesla's up 4% today, which is great to see. But I would say that you don't need these mid-cap and small-cap companies
to move up a lot
while the indices are somewhat flat
to slightly up in the day.
Like, look at it today.
Look at it today.
Basically, the Qs inspire up about 30 basis points.
And then you have all these other stocks
about 10%, 12%, 13%.
Like, it's pretty insane.
And I would say that a lot of these companies
are pretty good, fair value.
So just wanted to comment on that one.
Also, very glad to start a show tomorrow with Wolf Financial Team.
Going to be streaming exclusively from the YouTube channel for Wolf.
In addition to the Wolf X accounts.
I hope a lot of you guys have tuned into my content that I've had, but this is going to be
a great partnership and a great
start of a new line of shows
providing different content that
you've been seeing online. And on top of that, it's going to
be like during the midday. So I would
say that, you know, after your lunch hour, whatever you want
to tune in, go ahead and check it out.
Going to be doing exclusive streams
for special events that happen
like earnings, maybe some on streamingstreaming, on-ground streaming from major events.
What's supposed to be CES coming up, but I won't be attending that one, unfortunately.
But I hear Evan's going to be attending that one, so that's going to be pretty cool.
But it's going to be pretty exciting.
I would say that this is a very early step in the journey.
And, I mean, if you join my
stuff, guys, go ahead and show up. And we're going to be having some special guests on there,
including some legendary retail investors and so on. It's going to be really cool. Really hope to
see you guys there tomorrow at 2 p.m. Eastern. I'm going to be getting the episode up and then
posting up soon. So really excited.
What all are you going to be talking about on your show there, Sam?
A bunch of Chuck Norris jokes and dad jokes for most of the time.
Sign me up. I don't know.
Yeah, man.
It's going to be awesome.
You're going to have some guest appearances on there?
Yeah, I might have some guest appearances on there.
I know a guy, Stock Talk, you should invite on.
I can connect you with him.
I'm in pretty good with that guy.
Is he here?
Yeah, he might be here.
Don't worry.
I'm his agent, so you just go through me.
I saw him on Stock Talk.
I saw you on Ahmet's live stream, man.
That was a group.
Oh, he just dropped.
Okay, maybe he didn't want to be part of this conversation.
He's got shut down on that... Can you hear me now?
Yeah.
I can't see you anymore.
That's weird.
Can you hear me now?
Yeah, I got you.
That was wild. You disappeared, then your voice
came in. Yeah.
Sometimes he has to mute because he's eating
cucumbers in the background.
Yeah. C he has to mute because he's eating cucumbers in the background. Yeah.
Cucumber water.
That was a great stream on Anonymous Livestream, man.
That was a good one.
I haven't eaten cucumber in a while, actually.
Pause.
But anyway, go for it.
No, it's all good.
It's all good.
Yeah, no, that was a great stream.
It's kind of interesting.
I mean, the world of investing and trading, like it evolves every single day.
I mean, I think I've probably made the biggest change to my investing style this year. But
I think what I'm trying to go for is I want to be pretty public what I'm doing. And that includes
sharing my portfolio. I'm planning on building my portfolio and blossom and just sharing that
out there. But yeah, I mean, you know, I'm learning a lot from you guys and I think it'll be great to
bring some of you guys on one by one on there throughout the time. But yeah, here we go.
Tomorrow, 2 o'clock p.m. Eastern. Let's go. Well, I'm looking forward to it. Appreciate that.
Sam, I saw Trader's Almanac join us up here great to have jeffrey
joining us jeffrey what's going on what are you seeing out there in these markets how you been
hey how you doing uh sorry i've been mia for a little while but um yeah it's that time of year
man everyone's talking santa claus rally and everyone not everyone but a lot of people don't
quite get it uh it's not just a rally to trade.
It's an indicator.
And as the saying goes, as you read in the Traders' Almanac,
if Santa Claus should fail at the call, bears may come to broaden wall.
Santa Claus rally is something we invented back in the 70s.
It's the last five trading days of the year.
The first two of the new year starts on the 24th, ends on the 5th.
And, you know, it's usually a pretty bullish time.
Not super huge move, but it's kind of a quiet period when, you know, tax law selling is over and a lot of people are away from the desk.
And some of the traders are trying to pick up bargains.
S&P is up about 1.5% over the seven days, not a big deal.
But it's the first leg of our indicator,
January indicator trifecta.
And that's the first five days.
It was Santa Claus Rally, first five days
and a full month January barometer,
the other thing we invented, all for the S&P.
And if all three are up, the market's up 90.6% of the time.
That's 29 out of 32 years, 17.7% average gain for the S&P.
So it's good.
And coming into the midterm election year, which we're kind of concerned about, you know,
it's one of the things we'll be watching.
But also looking at the small cap rally, you uh russell's and iwm and all
that stuff getting a bit of a boost from the expected rate cut which another thing i find
interesting but there's a seasonal trade there we used to be called the january effect not the
barometer but the january effect of small caps outperforming large outperforming large caps in january most of that takes place
in the last half of december again we've got a uh there's a uh updated version of that chart
the comp the comparison between the russell 2000 and 1000 on the blog uh it's also on the um
twitter feed the x feed right there um and i find it interesting, you know, with the whole sell off we had and a lot of, you know, AI bubble, you know, blaming and the crypto deleveraging, which is real, that kind of pulled the, you know, the curtain back on all the leverage in crypto ever since the October 10th, you know, China-US tariff scare
that sort of had everyone unload, you know, the leverage crypto Bitcoin trades.
But what I really see is, aside from all that noise, it's really all about the Fed.
I put a chart in the newsletter and in the and in in the uh uh i guess i could
share that out there i don't have it yet my fingertips i mean i do but i've just while
i'm talking it's i i just drew a line in the sand on october 29th it's like i had nasdaq um and
anyone can look at this nasdaq and the s&p and bitcoin on there and yeah bitcoin was already
weakening but as soon as powell waffled uhled at the presser after the last FOMC meeting, everything just fell in unison.
And then the next event is the Williams, the Fed governor, the FOMC member Williams talking down
in Chile on the 21st of the Friday there before Thanksgiving,
and you see everything turn.
So, you know, it's all about the Fed, all eyes of the Fed.
You saw the Fed watch flip, and everyone's expecting that right now.
So, you know, the bull market is back at play.
We're looking again for, you know, another 20% plus year gain for the S&P.
New highs, I've talked about 7,100.
But as we always say, year ends make great exits.
The midterm year is the weakest of the four-year cycle.
It's weak for Bitcoin as well.
And it sets up a great buying opportunity.
So the weak spot is the two quarters, Q2, Q3.
And that's why we call it a midterm year
the bottom picker's paradise.
So with the seasonality turned on its head, that's an indication we had the bearer season not go down from, you know, May through October.
We had new highs in September and October, two of the, you know, rougher months.
And then we had weak, you know, seasonal, weak trading during the seasonally strong
period in November.
So it's telling me that there's other forces going on here. Maybe there's a bit of an unwind. Maybe
it's, you know, I think the tariffs and the fiscal policy is going to have an impact next year,
more so than they've already had. And then the midterms, you know, this president,
this administration has proven to be pretty vocal and active in down ballot and congressional
elections. They're going to be battling a hold on to Congress.
And that takes attention away from the market and the economy.
And that's what creates that, you know, Bonapicker's paradise
and sets up that sweet spot in the midterm year.
And that's where we're at, you know.
So I don't know if there's anything else I missed that you want to hear
from the seasonal cycle into things, but that's where my mind is at.
Really appreciate you clarifying that Santa Claus rally thing.
I've been fighting people on spaces online.
Just everybody wants to say Santa Claus rally because they're just looking for the next
confirmation bias piece, but hearing the actual pieces behind it, love that.
Jeff, we're good to have you on here.
Are there any pockets of the market where you've seen maybe more opportunity, anything that's really interested you?
Obviously, there's been some kind of dispersing out across the board here.
Retail doing well the last few days, some home builder stuff.
Any pockets that you like?
I mean, I'm into copper miners right now.
I'm in the COPX, and that's the seasonal trade there.
So that's kind of
turned around a little bit uh energy setting up um for a seasonal trade but uh you know i mean
there's there's pockets out there um i guess one of the things the copper is the one thing that i
don't think people were ready for talking about so much and i guess you know that's goes with dr
copper and the whole phd in economics but um the build, you know, that goes with Dr. Copper and the whole PhD in economics.
But the build out, you know, in the data centers,
you know, biotech's been screaming,
healthcare's come back.
So there's some opportunities there,
but I think Copper's the one thing
that people haven't really jumped on board with yet.
So I like the miners, COPX, I'm in that.
Boom, appreciate you joining us, Jeffrey. So I like the miners, COPX. I'm in that. Boom.
Appreciate you joining us, Jeffrey.
Feel free to hang out.
Jump back in the convo at any point.
There's some others up here as well.
We've got eight minutes until the close.
I know we have some earnings coming out after the close.
StockSniper, are you up here?
I do know StockTalk's been watching UiPath.
I was going to see if Stock
Steifer wanted to give us the
measured move.
I talked about the calls on Monday
on the Spaces, the 14 calls. They're already up
50%. Scott Redler
tagged me today, I think, or tagged the
Stocks on Spaces account, I think,
that he was selling half of them.
But yeah, yeah.
I wasn't just watching it, but yeah, we took a position.
It's not a huge position, but it's all calls, so it can expand in waiting rapidly.
It was 0.4%.
Now it's 0.6% going into the earnings today.
They're pretty short-dated.
They're January expiries, so if I'm right, I'll be right big.
If I'm wrong, I'll be right big.
If I'm wrong, I'll be wrong small.
But yeah, I do like the story there.
I think it's becoming a real business.
It wasn't a real business like two years ago as a meme stock, but it's not anymore.
I don't think I like went pretty deep through their last quarter and liked what I saw.
Uh, they have to follow through though.
Um, and that's the important part um
but it was a i mean i'll just take that segue to just jump in here but it was a monster day for for me obviously amcore back-to-back days up eight percent that's my largest position i have a ton of
leverage i i don't know how much i've talked about that stock on the space but it has to be the stock
i've mentioned the most out of any stock over the
last three months.
I'm actually curious out of all the people,
those of you that listen to this space every day.
If you bought Amcor at any time since September,
because you heard me ranting about it in the space,
comment on the space.
I'm curious how many of you who aren't in my discord bought that stock
because I feel like
I feel like I've found the absolute living hell out of the table on that stock like I could not
have pounded the table more on Amcor I think but um if I didn't I'd be curious so so if you're in
the audience and you and you bought it you know let me know I'm curious if especially if you're
not on the discord if you're in the discord you obviously bought it, let me know. I'm curious, especially if you're not on the Discord.
If you're in the Discord, you obviously bought it
because you see my portfolio updates, or I hope you did.
But I'm curious about that because I don't know anyone
that was talking about that stock before me.
And I think if you search Twitter, I don't think that there was a soul.
And we were in it, the 24 is still in it.
Stock's hitting 44 today.
Back-to-back monster days for that plus eight percent days breaking new highs
monthly chart just looks so good still um and headed for a major re-rating i mean this thing's
going to be this thing is now a way to play intel to play tsm to play apple to play Apple, to play Broadcom, to play Google TPUs, to play Amazon TPUs. It has become
like the most ubiquitous winter agnostic stock, I think, in the entire semiconductor complex.
And that is going to force an even more aggressive re-rating than we've already seen. I mean,
the stock's up almost 100% from where we opened, um, it looks like it's headed a lot higher based on the aggressive
inflows this thing has seen in the last several weeks. So yeah. Um, very, very happy for it.
Dragged my portfolio to new highs. I hit a pretty big goal today. Um, I consolidated all my
portfolios into one and the beginning of 24 started sharing performance and sharing all my holdings and hit over a thousand percent return today since then.
So that's all individual stocks.
Eighty five to ninety percent common equity.
A thousand percent in less than two years, I think, is something I can hang my hat on.
My year to date returns at like five at like 547 i think as of the
close today um so yeah proof's in the pudding um am core up eight today robin hood up six and a
half path up four and a half tesla up four digital ocean up three kratos up 2.6 nebius up 2.5 plpc up 2.5 oss my only small cap up one percent leu up one
hii up one ens up one vav down slightly amazon down slightly so hell of a day for the portfolio
um i only have 14 positions right now i actually have i have cash right now um i'm not even on
margin i have a ton of leverage on amcor and ens but i have cash right now. I'm not even on margin. I have a ton of leverage on Amcor and ENS, but I have cash right now.
So I could even be more long than I am in theory.
And I will if opportunities present themselves.
There's a handful of stocks I'm watching.
Today's not the type of day where I buy stuff because, you know, I don't like to buy into gap ups.
But there's a couple of stocks I'm watching, keep an eye on that I want to buy and that I want to own. And they're not stocks that people
are talking about, which I like. So yeah, there's still, I feel like under discussed under owned,
uh, names out there. And, um, a lot of them are stagnant today. So that's a good sign. That's
what I want to see and see them consolidating some showed relative strength over the past few weeks so i'm chilling right now i'm happy to
protect performance in the end of the year i'll probably be throwing a lot of darts either into
the end of the year into q1 and next year on five or six new positions two or three new themes
probably add one or two stocks to my grid portfolio, but that'll probably happen later,
maybe later in Q1. In the near term, there's two or three new themes I want to enter and build a
thesis on. So that's what I've just been working on these last couple of weeks. So I've been a
little quieter in terms of activity, but my stocks have been doing the work for me. So
that's good to see. And really, really happy with Amcor finally getting discovered for
the opportunity that it is these past couple of weeks. So that's good to see and really really happy with Amcor finally getting discovered for the opportunity that it is these past couple weeks so that's good to see but
yep that's pretty much it from my side
what about path are you you and an Amcor of a path I missed maybe I'm it's just uh yeah it was
Monday but we talked about it on Monday Maybe I missed everyone else for Monday.
We talked about it on Monday.
But yeah, it's just a, I guess you called a lotto position,
but it was 0.4% waiting initially.
It's all calls, so no stock on it.
Just the 14 calls for January 2026.
Open those on Friday at $1.40.
They're trading.
It's a spread on these. They're trading like $2.12, $2.13 right now. So they're trading it's a spread on these they're trading like 2 12 to 13 right now
so they're up 50 um in a couple of days which is good to see pass up four and a half percent today
was up yesterday as well pushing 15 bucks now um we'll see what happens on earnings you know
the beauty of doing risk is premium paid with earnings.
And I do this anytime I buy a stock close to earnings because, you know, I have a pretty
large retail portfolio.
When I take equity positions, like, you know, if I get hit for 20% on an equity position,
I'm taking a big dollar loss.
And so rather than risking that, if I'm entering close to earnings, this isn't always the case.
If I'm not entering like right on the eve of an earnings, it doesn't matter.
But if I'm entering on the eve of an earnings report, I like to do the risk is premium paid approach, which for people that don't understand what I mean by that, that just means that like you size an options position as much as you're willing to lose.
And then you go into the earnings.
And if you're wrong, you lose maybe not all of lose. And then you go into the earnings. And if
you're wrong, you lose maybe not all of it, but a good chunk of the position. And if you're right,
you have a lot of upside because it's a pure options position and it's entirely leveraged.
You don't have any common stock exposure. So that's what I like to do. And it works well for
me. And the times that I'm right, cool. I have a cushion on that lotto quote unquote. And
I never do a lot earnings lottos in terms of like buying them the week of expiration. That's for
noobs. Okay. You just get Ivy crushed half the time. You buy at least a couple of weeks out of
earnings and you can track this easily. Just look at the Ivy. You know, if you have, IV of 150% the week of earnings, and then the next week it drops up to 92%,
and then two weeks out at 64%, those are the contracts you buy.
You don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure it out.
You don't even need to look at the Greeks.
Just look at the IV.
To be honest, this is going to piss a lot of options pros off.
You really don't need to look at anything besides the implied volatility, to be honest,
and the breakeven price.
If you're capable of just being a logical navigator, that's really all you need to consider,
in my opinion, if you're experienced enough.
For new traders, yeah, you should go through the Greeks, watch YouTube videos of the Greeks,
and understand how they're priced.
But once you're past that point and you've been doing it for long enough, you really just need to look at the IV and look at the break-even price. And so, um, anyway, you should buy the
contracts that don't, that aren't susceptible to IV crush when you are doing that. And if you're
wrong, you're wrong. You're right. You're right. And you have a cushion. So that's kind of the way
I think about it. Salesforce just came out.
Salesforce is up 7%.
I'm trying to get the actual numbers.
That's going to be good for software.
Salesforce numbers, revenue at $10.25 billion, expected $10.27 billion.
EPS at $3.25, expected $2.86.
When's Pat supposed to be out?
4.10 p.m.
Okie dokie.
They raised their guidance even though they had a slight revenue miss.
Okay, 2.26, miss 10.28, but the fourth quarter revenue 11.13 to 11.23 estimated was 10.9.
So a raise on Q4.
Up 7.5, 8% now.
Salesforce showing 258 a share.
Snowflake should be out soon.
Obviously, Path, you heard that one mentioned as well
uh there's a few other names uh five below that's where evan buys his sneakers
that's funny
uh salesforce have confused me.
I know we got you guys up here, Sam, Stock Talk Logical,
some of you guys that dive in a little bit deeper
to the business side of things.
Nah, I'm not in Salesforce.
Five Below posted $1.03 billion versus $983.48 million.
EPS at $0.68 versus $0.26 expected.
Sorry to cut you off there, Sam's all right at least snowflake is not reporting the same days in video that that is no that was good for them to
do that for a while that was no it was terrible that's no best case scenario for them to hide
those bad numbers for like three quarters oh yeah that's you mean okay it was a really that was actually very strategic of them they're like okay now that we're turning
the ship around a little bit let's uh report on our own day you're laughing because somebody
somebody discussed that in a conference room it's true it's true they let's report the same day and
their their stock would always go down but i get a little bit of a pump up after.
But I think the last quarter, though, their numbers were actually really good.
Actually, no, the quarter before that, and then it got pulled down because of the NVIDIA earnings.
But it didn't matter. It sucked because it was $100 higher than it was that earnings.
and was that earnings.
For your fiscal year 2026 guidance from CRM,
they were at 11.37 in the analyst range.
They raised that up to 11.75 to 11.77,
so about a 40-cent increase
on their fiscal year 2026 guidance
for Salesforce CRM.
Waiting on Snowflake, waiting on Path.
And we'll continue the conversation here shortly.
Path should be out in about five minutes, I think.
What is Snowflake? Are they usually?
405.
Yeah, they should be out in about 30 seconds.
Fastly dropped an offering, 125 million convertible notes fsl y shit call man shit call
trump is still speaking live by the way he uh he said we need more compact
automobiles in the u.s that was his big so far. He's got a bunch of car dealers in here.
Does he have Elon there?
Nope.
Some guys that own dealerships.
Salesforce.
Snowflake, my bad.
Yeah, initial move's down five.
Looking for the numbers.
Snowflake shot down.
It's down 3.5%.
It's bouncing around.
Let me see the actual numbers here.
Snowflake revenue at $1.21 billion.
Expected $1.18 billion.
EPS at $0.35.
Expected $0.31. My mic is on, right? 1 billion expected 1.18 billion eps at 35 cents expected 31 cents
my mic is on right yes i got you
yep snowflake small beads they must have by god by guidance or something in there because it's down 7%. C3AI?
Double B.
They need to get rid of that ticker.
Yeah.
We should veto that ticker.
Basically, no change, slide down.
They should just sell the ticker and shore up their balance sheet.
Yeah, that's probably the best proposal I've heard yet
put me on the board
give me equity
it should be Walmart AI
WMAI
Walmart AI
Walmart's going to the NASDAQ
it's the greatest technology on earth
I just cannot stomach the fact
I don't understand that Walmart being more expensive than Amazon doesn't make
any sense to me. It's more expensive than
everything but Tesla, I think.
It's more expensive than everything.
It's the greatest company on earth.
And people keep telling me, like, oh, it's because
they're resilient during recessions
and I'm like, that
does not feel like a good enough reason to
pay 50p.
Well, and you're the best, you know.
I guess.
I guess in one more.
Just the market's telling you.
I don't know.
I mean, you're right.
I can't disagree with the price.
New all-time highs again today.
Yeah.
Keeps going.
Ducks just go up in straight lines.
What is this avalanche that's happening on Snowflake?
Did they drop their
product
revenue?
I mean, think about it. It went up on the MongoDB.
A lot of these things get priced in.
Their operating margins down to
7% now is their projection.
Still sees it at
9%. So they have single digit operating
margins now.
Product revenue is right.
I mean, these just aren't impressive numbers.
Oh, snow is falling.
Yeah, look at the window.
I'm already sick of Christmas music.
It's December 3rd.
Oh, God, get out of here, Grinch.
Dude, my son has a train that plays Santa Claus is Coming to Town.
He keeps, like, turning it on and then going upstairs,
and I just hear it in the background
for two hours until I go turn it off.
So let me ask you,
how did he acquire the train?
I didn't buy it.
It's not my job. It was on my credit card
bill, though.
So you did buy it.
So you did buy it.
No, well, indirectly.
I didn't swipe.
What was I going to...
Yeah, it's really just UI path now,
and then after that, we're past the earnings.
Oh, I was going to ask Sniper,
if you had the measured move on any of these,
what was CRM?
Did you have a measured move on CRM?
I got the measured move on all of them.
The measured move on CRM
is sitting
at $15.34 or 6.45%. The one that's kind of interesting to me, or the one thing that's
kind of jumping out about all of these little reports that I make is UiPath. And over the
last quarter, it's up 37.10%. It's had a very strong quarter,
stronger than most of the names that we've seen in the last couple weeks.
For that name, we're only looking for $1.67 or 11.22%, though.
Should be getting numbers. What about Snow?
What was Snow's measured move?
He gave it to him in 20 seconds.
Yeah, Snowflake is $20.82 or 7.80%.
That's exactly where it's bouncing.
Exactly.
Snowflake hasn't had a bad earnings reaction for the last four reports,
and they're up 32% on the quarter.
Snow announces Anthropic Partnership $200 million deal.
Make Anthropic's clawed models available on Snowflake platform.
Cool story, bro.
Yeah, that feels like a
pump headline.
Oh, shit.
We're using their
thing? That's what they're saying?
You can access their really cool tool
on our platform. Like you can
everyone else.
16 cents adjusted earnings
for Path. That was 15 cents
so they beat 16 versus 15.
I don't see the revenue yet.
411 million versus
392.87 million.
5% beat.
Pretty solid.
That's really good.
Yeah, those are good results.
Top line.
I'll see.
$392 versus $411.
So it seems like the estimates on UiPath are a little bit different
when you're looking around at different providers.
But most of them are around $390 million, give or take five.
It's down about a percent and a half.
One percent.
Yeah, I mean, it just ran straight up for like five years.
Yeah, I mean, it had a nice run into the earnings.
It was boring.
Let me go through this a little bit more.
Not to mention, not only did it run into earnings, but the IP was like plus 200%.
Yeah, for this week's calls, I'm sure.
Not on the ones that I bought, though.
No, yeah, I saw the January's was like 77 when I looked at them like a couple hours ago,
which isn't bad for a name like this
that could really run, especially with the earnings.
Yeah.
It's back up 6%.
Wow, now it's up 7%. Yep.
Do you buy?
I was about to buy some right there
when it was rich.
Maybe you did. That's why it's up 8%. It was a conversion. You right there when it was rich. And it just flipped.
Maybe you did.
That's why it's up 8%. It was a conversion.
You got to be quicker than that.
Yeah, I got to be way quicker than that.
I was like, oh, it's down 2%.
I was like, I'll buy some there.
They see Q4 sells.
Estimate was $462.
They put it at $462 to $467.
So slightly above that previous midpoint.
Slight guide up. to 467, so slightly above that previous midpoint.
Slight guide up.
I'll tell you something, those comps
are going to be easy for that company. Gap gross margin
was 83%. Non-gap
was 85% gross margin.
The beauty of software companies
and gross margins.
Net new ARR, 59 million.
Our first gap profitable third quarter.
It's an interesting way to word that.
Well, that matters because...
Is that a seasonally week or...?
Yeah, they haven't...
I don't think they've had a profitability inflection in the second half before.
And that's what people were really looking for.
Because...
So the last quarter, they were expected to post like a 3 cent EPS.
And they smashed it and they posted 15 cent eps
that's when i started looking at this stock after that quarter and then i was like watching it and
didn't really like the price action and then so yeah this was the first little position but if
this move holds yeah those calls would be up like 200 tomorrow probably so um it'll go from being a
small weighting to a decent little weighting.
And the next pullback, I'll probably size into it a little bit.
I wish I would have just grabbed it there without thinking.
I was pulling up my thing and didn't, but it was an opportunity there to grab it.
But I have a couple hundred contracts.
If it's giving you like 15 seconds to buy the dip,
I wouldn't be too hard on yourself.
Yeah, and I have exposure too.
Those calls will
blow up tomorrow.
It wasn't even that much of a depth, if we're being honest.
50 cents?
At the first price,
it was at the
closed price.
Briefly.
But normally you would was at the, it was at the close price, close price, you know, briefly, but yeah.
But normally you would, you would look at like the,
the like current days range or the current weeks range and like,
you know, a sweep under that you'd want to, you know,
take a liquidity shot there.
Yeah.
That revenue beat was pretty telling.
I was surprised it wasn't up more on that.
It is now 1620, 16 25. it's funny i
just i don't know this name well enough uh stock about it earlier when i was looking into it
and uh you know so i knew that 412 sounded like a great number if it was a name that i knew a
little bit more like well i would have probably like I always buy
things after hours I don't care sometimes I'll buy something up 5-10%
after hours I know it should be up 30 I just if I know like sometimes when I
look at these numbers and I'm quicker to like process that it's a really good
number by buying a little bit higher after hours with that information turns
out to be a decent bet.
Yeah, this is a good report.
It's a real business now.
I am pulling up the metrics here.
Jesus, it's $16.50 now.
What the f***?
You didn't buy enough.
I didn't buy anything,
to be honest.
I thought you did.
I thought you said
you were going to buy it.
Yeah, I know.
And then I had back-to-back meetings, and I just didn't get to it.
Just quit my damn job.
I told you to buy it today.
I know.
That's why I looked into it after that.
But I had the meetings.
I couldn't swear it.
I was like, I figure I'll swear it.
You know how it is.
It's always better when you have conviction.
You don't want to force it.
You know what I mean?
Yeah.
Hating yourself.
Not a good day.
I'm not upset.
I think it's better
when I can blame somebody else
if it doesn't work.
So you blame someone else
when it goes down,
but when it goes up
or when it goes with you,
then that was all you.
Yes.
That's Twitter, brother.
You just figured out
how this half worked. There you go. you. Yes. That's Twitter, brother. You just figured out how this half worked.
There you go.
Welcome.
Welcome.
I mean, what I can say, though, is like these reactions lately, this breadth expansion,
we didn't really come around to me since I joined late, but like just thoughts on the
market here.
Like this is really bullish.
And, um, you know, we were talking about it, the, uh, you know, I was mentioning in my
commentary earlier this week, basically that the quickness of the recovery of the 50 day,
the fact that we didn't even pull back this week at all on the S and P we held all the
moving averages floated above them, didn't even
retest the six EMA. And just this market doesn't want to even do any, like it does not want to go
lower. And then you have IWM, RSP, XBI, all these KRE home builders starting to outperform the market
cap weighted S&P. There are really only two scenarios when you have breadth deterioration.
There are really only two scenarios when you have breath deterioration.
Either the S&P rolls over to catch up to the downside, or you get breath expansion, and
it fuels the next leg higher in the market.
And right now you're saying, and you saw big time breath expansion to the point where we
almost got another breath thrust.
I don't think we're going to meet the ZBT indicator requirement, but you're getting
pretty damn close.
And so that kind of breadth expansion is
quite bullish
So I think it's important because people have been you know wanting to be bearish and if you just look at the chart of the S&P
I mean, you know every time you get oh Lee it's 70
Good Lord
Let's go let's go those calls are gonna be up like 400
First guy, we're since got an invite
That thing's gonna become a 3% waiting room
Who bought it he's probably the one who bought it and pushing it up come on geez man i'm still speaking live if he says anything interesting at all but in logical you were still uh you want to finish your thought there and then
we'll go over to jeffrey's hand yeah yeah um just talking about, you look at the SMP chart on the daily, and there was like, weeks where people were saying, oh, the SMP hasn't touched, you know, touched the 50 day in X number of trading days or whatever.
the SMP hasn't had a greater than 1% draw, you know, pull back in a day or whatever,
then you end up getting like five in a row. So whenever those stats started coming of like,
oh, we haven't touched a 50 day in so long, it meant that we're overdue. And then eventually,
you don't just even get a tap on the 50 day, you get a tap bounce, and then fall down to the 100
day. So you just wiped out, you know, both of those requirements, tapped both of them, and it almost looked like a head and shoulder breakdown.
But that big volume buy off of the 100-day just looks like a failed breakdown.
And then it's just, you know, it's super bullish when you get a failed breakdown.
It's super bearish when you get a failed breakout.
I mean, that's just kind of how I look at these things.
So to me, it's satisfied.
Like the S&P with a 5.4% pullback, you get two to three of those a year on average.
And so when you kind of drown out the noise and a lot of people got super bearish, I think
you have to take the price action day by day for sure.
Today's action was across the board the complete opposite of bearish
I mean you saw the robotics theme this morning got a nod from that Trump headline
The robotics stocks today were up like every single robotics stock was up 20%
Like I think that's on first Tesla too
Yeah, that's the first time in months that a an intraday
catalyst has worked on an entire theme so that's bullish and do you see the rest of the market
i mean i don't think anyone's portfolio was red today it was hard to be red today like i mean
everything from rk to transportation to oil to spy to xbi to home builders everything was ripping today
so like if you found a way to be red today you're in the wrong stocks period like this
you're on the mag 7 yeah or you're on the mag or your full port mag 7 yeah one of the two um but
today is not the day a day where you should excuse your portfolio for being red.
In my opinion, sometimes you have to be self-analytical and hard on yourself.
If your portfolio is down and I'm not talking about just after hours here, like path or
anything.
I mean, like in general today, if your portfolio is down, you're probably in the wrong stocks
and that's okay.
Sometimes you have to make that concession and be like
i don't own enough of the right sectors i mean this morning actually was funny after the um
microsoft news came out and then they dumped uh tech for a second i saw people this morning were
like yeah igv's doomed i don't know if anyone saw saw reversal in software this morning, but it was one of the most powerful index reversals I've seen in weeks.
I mean, it like right off the rip, it dumped a little bit and then buyers were stepping in in droves like the call flow I saw.
And it was insane. And so this thing's battling even IGV, which has been so weak.
Right. And I'm pointing this out as a sector that has been so weak recently, is battling to keep the 200-day
with bulls stepping in right at the same place.
And you saw flips in so many individual software stocks
intraday, like DigitalOcean opened the morning,
it's the only software stock I have,
opened the morning red, closed the day up 3%.
Like, that's not bearish action.
So yeah, it's hard to find things
to be negative about in this market
and that can change quickly but for now i mean what are you going to be mad about it's really
it's hard it's hard to lose right now and when you're just mad it won't it won't pull back and
like backtest it's like it can't even to logical's point to your point uh like a nine ema on the
daily can't even catch up it's hard for me to take swing laws and we're extended from a nine on the
daily.
Yeah.
The only thing in my port that was read today besides Amazon was VIAV.
And the second it came down and touched the 21 EMA,
it just rebounded intraday right off of it.
And like,
that's what I'm seeing right now.
I'm seeing like any decent stock that's coming in,
touching,
kissing their nine or 21 EMA is just rebounding right away and getting bought up.
I mean, that's not bearish action.
And there are some stocks that look bearish, that look like shit.
Still, there's some stocks that got caught up in the selling for weeks that still don't look good.
But I mean, most of the names of my portfolio look good.
So that's all I'm really worried about.
But there are stocks that don't so be sure that you're you know in the right names all i've been
doing is actually like i've been looking for stocks that aren't able to keep up with any sort
of bounce i do like buying things that are beaten down personally because i do like the fundamental
value but if they're not able to muster any strength while everything else is bouncing, I cut them very quickly. Usually it ends up being like flat-ish
on the position, but it was worth a shot. I think the risk reward is fine. And like, um, so, you
know, today I actually did add to names, but I added to the names that were slightly red. I actually
added to Amazon and meta today. Um, I, you know, I, I've still been adding to a few things.
I added to like four names today or five names,
and they were all like at least three of them were red
or four of them were red.
And the other one was maybe slightly green.
But the other, I mean, a lot of names on my portfolio
were up like six, seven, eight, nine, 10%.
Obviously, I'm not going to add to those on a day like today, but like a name like Amazon, which by the way, you know, Amazon meta continue to see
a lot of call flow. Keep seeing shorts, uh, they're, they're selling puts, things like that.
Lag seven, pretty good works out, especially if in a bull market, I just don't see that these
names don't end up participating. Um, I'm personally staying away from speculative names. I'm trying
to get into higher quality businesses that have like better valuations and fundamentals.
So to me, there is a lot of opportunity in the market. You just got to be able to look at those
balances. Yeah. I mean, I, I agree with you. Like a lot of the names that I look at,
they've been like pulling back right to like their 21 EMAs and that's exactly where I've been adding basically
like let me pull up Amazon like Amazon
Touch that's nine and bounce today touch. It's nine and 21 there and then bounced like if I look at meta
Meta pullback didn't even touch the 21 like but it's right there sitting on it
Like it's a pretty easy trade to manage because if it breaks below it then you can just call it a day
There's things like that. So yeah yeah i think you can just pick your spots of where you're adding especially if it's high quality names because you know a pullback is nice to add there
i know we're supposed to manage risk when necessary but i really regret closing 20
closing 20 of my path calls but it's all yeah don't regret that. You can't think like that.
It's all good.
It's all good, though.
It's all good.
Bro, there's so many things that I've de-risked in my life that were super high conviction
that I de-risked early on in the trade that I think the same way about.
I have that mentality, too, where I'm like, dude, if I hadn't sold those, I'd have three
times the gains on this.
Oh, sorry, Jeff.
I see you raised your hand.
What's up?
Hey, man.
Sorry.
No, you guys were talking about breath and the moving average before.
That's what I initially threw my hand about.
I'm wondering what you guys have any take on this whole Hindenburg-Omen scare
and then switching to the Zweig breath thrust.
I mean, it looks like everyone got pretty nervous at the lows again.
So is that something that's on your guys' radar?
I just wonder what you guys thought of that stuff.
I mean, I'm a micro guy.
So for me, I try not to concern myself with any of that stuff.
But you're looking at the 50-day, though.
I mean, that's kind of.
I do.
Yeah, I look at general market structure is what I look at.
You know, I just look at. You're talking about breath really market structure is what i look at you know i just look
at talking about breath really coming around being bullish today you know so i'm just wondering
yeah i mean i'm when i'm more so referring to breath i'm referring to just like when there's
wide participation i'm not really looking at it like an in an incremental way but yeah you're
right i better breath does make me more bullish and breath has been better. Um, I don't factor too much into my stock picking like,
or my individual,
right.
You know,
position management,
but yeah,
it is encouraging.
It's good to see like,
like today was the broadest participation I've day I've seen from an index
perspective in a while.
What was it?
What was the new highs,
new lows and advanced declines?
Was it big,
big,
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't look at those numbers. I just look at it on an index view. So I don't know. I don't know. I don't look at those numbers.
I just look at it on an index view, so
I don't know. I'm sure AMP has that
data. It's worth looking at.
ADD was like 1,000 today. What's that again?
1,100. It was 1,100
on ADD today. Positive 1,100.
That's pretty good. That's solid.
What about new highs and lows?
The interesting...
Evan usually tracks that, I think, a little bit more than I do.
The thing that I watch, kind of the intraday,
up volume versus down volume, ADD, a little bit, some of that stuff.
And then you mentioned a couple pieces there that I think are interesting.
So you have the kind of the bad omen at the high,
whatever the Hindenburg and the Omega 6,
whatever they call that other thing.
And then now we're
getting the breath thrust from the i mean when you have two of those within like a three-week
period i just wonder if they're not gonna like water find that level in the middle like do they
cancel each other out or is it just overshoot in the technician circles about that being kind of
rare um to me it kind of smells like a lot about like the Death Cross and Golden Cross
stuff. I mean, those Death Crosses were the 50 day crosses below to 200 day is notoriously
at lows, you know, and Golden Cross was a bit more positive. But I don't know. It's
definitely, you know, I think there's a lot of this stuff is getting there's less stocks traded there's all this zero expiration option stuff is is uh lessening the the the usage and and uh uh indicativeness of of these of these technical
indicators there's another thing was that logical is talking about you're liking stocks that are
beaten down or or you know out of sorts you like buying them when they're down right i do not like that that's logical stuff
yeah that's the logical well there's a thing i forgot to mention this time of year
we do a thing where we jokingly tongue-in-cheek called the only free lunch on wall street where
we pick uh stocks making new 52-week lows right around mid-december which have historically
outperformed the indices.
We look at it on triple-witching Friday, which I guess is what, that's the 19th this year,
if memory serves.
I got to look.
Two weeks. Yeah.
So we go through New York, NAS, and Amex and look for stocks making new 52-week lows that
aren't IPOs, that have been trading for, you know, full year, no
special dividends, no splits, no weird anything, no closed-end funds, no preferreds, no, just
straight up, you know, straight common stocks that are making new lows that also have some
liquidity and aren't some fly-by-night something that's really thin and have at least a minimum
share price.
You know, we do it relatively.
And then we put out a list, and they tend to bounce.
It's a real tax loss selling ending trade.
It's another feature of one of our seasonal strategies.
Yeah.
Jeff, on that, I think it's a good time to be searching for tax loss selling candidates.
It's whenever, you know, it's a couple of things happening here where like, you know, people get to the end of the year, they have a lot of gains.
So they sell off their losers to write off their gains.
So one, there's some indiscriminate selling here, even though the business might be now at a more fair valuation, but the stock's been underperforming.
So people sell for that reason and they're locked out for 30 days.
And then also you're going to get into the end of the year.
And we already know that like only, I don't know what it is.
It like 20% of active fund managers are actually outperforming their benchmark
right now.
I mean, that was the number back on nine 30 and we know what happened in
October and November.
So a lot of these individuals get absolutely killed while the index index held up so their benchmarks probably held up a lot better
than they did so i would be surprised if that number is even 20 at this point um and so you're
going to have a lot of people who own a lot of these losers and they can just you know sell these
off before they you know i don't i don't know if you want to call it window dressing or whatever
for the end of the year but they probably don't want to show off that they've been holding a loser the whole year.
Oh, it's called window dressing for sure.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And so you're getting in this situation right now towards the end of the year where you might get a lot of bargains.
And I've done pretty well in past years picking the stocks that I think can end up getting like becoming,
you know, tax loss selling losers that end
up becoming January bounce candidate winners.
I mean, what was it?
I don't know if it was this, I think it was this year or last year where, you know, I
bought Tempest AI in size with leaps and it was trading at like $30.
It was very, very cheap.
It's trading like five times sales back then.
And then I got pretty lucky with the whole Nancy Pelosi disclosed position.
But, I mean, that stock ended up going up, you know,
double and triple over the next year or so.
And so, yeah, you're going to get a lot of these situations
where people just leave some of these stocks for dead.
But, yeah, one man's trash is another man's treasure.
We've also found that it works better when you get a bit of a correction,
and we have had one here.
So that buying the new lows around mid-late December is something worth looking at. found that it works better when you get a bit of a correction and we have had one here so that that
buying the new lows around mid late december is something worth looking at and we'll be putting
out a list it'll be over that weekend uh the 20th that's sweet man yeah that sounds like a good idea
um i mean also like i mean you know i've talked about amazon and meta generally speaking i feel
like you know for a lot of funds that can only own,
like, larger cap stocks, like, if this is a bull market, which it is, then you're probably going
to continue to get participation from the Mag7. You know, buying the Lag7 has been a pretty good
call. It's what they were doing with, you know, Google back when. So, you know, today's Mag7
losers end up being tomorrow's Mag7 winners.. Even like Amazon, like forget Meta.
Okay, Meta might be in the dumps and it's a little bit harder to deal with.
But like Amazon is, you know, above its 200 day.
Their last earnings report was stellar.
We all forget that they, you know, gapped up 10% and then gapped up another 4%
because the results were actually that good.
AWS was reaccelerating.
I mean, you talk about like the AI trade being alive and well,
like half the internet runs on AWS.
So, you know, I don't, you know,
the stock has basically gone nowhere since January of this year.
230 then, 230 now.
Everything else has gone on a run.
And, you know, earnings have been growing.
I actually was pulling up some charts, like on fiscal AI.
I've been using some of these valuation stuff.
And you can see that the stock has actually gone up over the last couple of years.
The earnings have gone up in correlation.
So, you know, earnings go up, the stock goes up.
But really, it's had zero multiple expansion.
So the stock's still been trading at like 13 times forward EV to EBITDA.
So it's, you know, this stock has had no, yeah, no multiple expansion. So the stock's still been trading at like 13 times forward EV to EBITDA. So it's,
you know, this stock has had no, yeah, no multiple expansion. And you talk about like the robotics
trade. I think we all know that Amazon's probably going to be like a huge winner in the immediate
term when it comes to robotics for logistics and to be able to actually see that to reduce like
the operating expenses on the retail side of the business. And imagine, if you get any sort of operating leverage
on the retail side of the business,
I mean, that's a very strong business.
And so that can boost earnings more than what people are modeling for now.
And then you get multiple expansion on top of that.
And again, this stock, while it hasn't really done much this year,
it's above the 200 days.
So it's definitely not broken like a meta.
But yeah, you know, I think there are a lot of opportunities out there.
Yeah, I think maybe people have gone to what is the higher beta
or, you know, the shinier objects.
But, you know, I wouldn't be surprised to see Amazon do pretty well from here.
Hey, thanks, guys.
I'm going to jump.
See you next time.
Great talking to you, Jeff.
Appreciate you.
Yeah, I actually added some Amazon 2028 leaps this week.
Logical, too.
I should probably look into some leaps, man, to be honest.
I picked up some 250s for 2028, 300 break even.
It's crazy that December of last year, almost the exact time it's the same price yeah
it's done nothing look there's been a lot of reasons why a little bit of multiple compression
from aws growth slowing that caught the stock a little bit and then you had bezos is selling
you had you know concerns about the consumer like you had all these sort of headwinds sort
of converge that weighed on the
performance but it's the best company in the world like it is it is just the best company in the world
and they have the most optionality and of any of the mag 7 i mean they're in tpus they're in
e-commerce they're in health care they're in grocery delivery they're in
logistics i mean they're the biggest logistics company in the world the amount of cross-theme
exposure you get with a company like amazon like it is the king of cross-theme exposure
the king so yeah the stock has sucked it's actually shrunk and weighed in my own portfolio
as richer that amazon used to be like a 12 13 percent weight of my portfolio back in the day it's like three percent now because the portfolio has grown so much but it is still a stock i love and a company i love more than a
stock i love and i think eventually the stock will resolve itself higher but yeah it's been a
shit stock i mean there's no getting around that and you know maybe that'll keep people away from it but it's it's amazon for goodness sake i mean like so you know here's the thing like back in
january of this year it was my largest position around 10 allocation but then i you know i sold
it at 230 just because when i thought about like okay this trading like i don't know like 20 times
operating cash flow like okay you know here's the growth and the growth is now slowing down or whatever. And I'm like, there's probably better bets to make
at this point based on that. But then you fast forward 10 months where, you know, the numbers
have, the earnings have continued to grow. The picture has gotten better. The robotics theme is
alive and well, AI trade is alive and well, the stocks at the same exact price, which means that
the multiple is actually compressed since 10 months ago and you're telling me that after my portfolio went on this
crazy run and i had ditched that stock i'm able to buy it right back at the same price yeah it's
it's like yeah that's awesome yeah you got the opportunity cost capitalized from it got back in
it for me it's i mean my cost base is managed so deep i ordered it like 88 average that like i just
didn't want to sell it you know but yeah um i mean yeah i love it i love it i love amazon i mean i've spent so much time
talking about amazon probably a lot of it seemingly wasted time because it hasn't performed like all
my other stock picks have but um it's not really like a high alpha pick you know it's a multi
trillion dollar company i'm not sharing anything that people don't know about amazon but i do still
believe it's about the best company in the world like if you had to pick one company i think
frankly speaking aws might be the best business ever conceived in world history i mean aws is
120 billion run rate business growing 20 with like 70 margins like what kind of business has ever existed like that um yeah so yeah it's like
it's a they have a massive cash flow generating behemoth beneath the world's biggest e-commerce
business beneath the world's biggest logistics business it's like there has to be premium value
assigned to that and one thing i think to keep in mind with amazon is no company in the world can penetrate new
markets as easily and as fluidly as amazon can no company in the world because their logistics
advantage allows them to do things like say you know what we're gonna offer same day grocery
delivery they're offering same day grocery delivery now like me and my brother were talking
about this uh the other day and uh we're like dude is there even a point in people like going to the
grocery store anymore if amazon can do like oh dude i don't go to the gross i i have the ten
dollars a month for the whole foods subscription i don't i haven't gone to the grocery store in
like a year man yeah i know and i'm saying we go less and less too now and i'm like you know and
and like i like to cook but you know uh if it can get put in front of me like what
why not and i've never had any problems in terms of the quality of stuff that's broad it's always
fresh it's in these like uh those heat proof bags insulated bags like and now amazon's saying yeah
by the end of next year in every major american city by the end of next year we'll be able to do one hour grocery delivery like the legit you can't compete with
that logistically forget about even wanting to compete with it if you have like the infrastructure
which very few players do you can't even compete with it logistically so they just have so many
advantages that like i just refuse to sell that stock and refuse to not own it so it'll always
be in my portfolio probably until I'm dead
because I don't think it's going anywhere
in terms of going anywhere as a company.
But it is an amazing company.
It's lost some of its luster because it's not found.
I have a question though.
Huh?
Going forward, will retail be like the Walmarts of the world?
I don't know if it's going to be Walmart or not,
but whoever is doing that should be a much higher margin business if you take a lot of the people out of it
so if in that world it is still walmart and costa where we're going to i know you're talking about
this the delivery stuff i still think people go to places i wonder if that's part of the long-term
margin kind of the pe and stuff for that i don't know if it's going to be walmart or not but whoever that is going to benefit the most it will be in grocery and goods selling of all kinds retail is going to be the people that
best leverage robotics and automation at scale in the next 10 years and i think amazon's in a
better position to do that than walmart or costco personally but we'll see um there's a race to be had still you
know no one is meaningfully like amazon has a lot of robots but no one's meaningfully deployed
robotics to the extent that it's like led to an appreciable margin difference for the company
that they can point ai and say that's responsible for this you know four percent margin tailwind or
whatever once you start seeing numbers like that like oh our gross margins are up you know
x amount our net margins are up next month our operating margins are up x amount as a direct
consequence of robotics and automation investments that's when you kind of trigger the inflection
point i think and then everyone starts doing it but i think amazon's in a better position to benefit
from that than anybody and like i think they're in a better position to benefit that even from the other,
than the other mag seven in a better position because it's circular to their
business,
right?
It's like directly integratable into their business,
which it,
which isn't true for the rest of the mag seven.
When you talk about robotics hardware,
you know,
maybe for Tesla,
but that's it.
So yeah,
Amazon is,
is a very unique company.
Yeah, I mean, just wanted to put out there
that like for me right now,
I am trying my best to,
and you've done a really good job
of figuring out the themes that you want to get along.
And for me, my portfolio is still very heavily in the bios and health cares.
And outside of that, though, I'm still, I don't want to say cautious, but I'm being just more prudent with which companies I buy.
So I'm mostly buying the names that I think have the highest quality businesses and the valuation like back and back it.
So the fundamentals look good.
Because like, I mean, you look up some of these names that, you know, I want as much as the next guy to be at a point where it's the full on bull market again of October 2025.
And everything is going to the moon.
But there's a reasonable chance that a lot of those names
have actually peaked for the cycle.
I don't think that's too crazy to even consider.
It could be the case.
So, yeah, I want to stick to names that I know
will be able to have quality throughout the, you know,
through this bull market.
So, yeah, I'm just sticking to those.
And so, you know, some of these really do fit the bill.
And as long as they technically can hold up, if they start losing moving averages and, you know some of these really do fit the bill and as long as they technically can hold up if they start losing moving averages and you know can't you know
like for example like i like mercato libre you know that thing's been down a lot that's like the
lat am you know that's my lat am exposure which i do want to have lat am exposure and that thing's
down like 30 hasn't really done much this year um you know it the bounce on that is far stronger
than like a c limited se you know who has exposure, but, you know, is more known for its Southeast Asia exposure.
Like that bounce is pathetic.
That thing looks like it's a bear flag waiting to break down and it can barely even hold on to like the 9 EMA or 6 or whatever.
So you can clearly see the strength in some of these bounces and the names that the market wants to hold on to.
As long as they don't like, you know, break through, you know, they don't like reverse the price action of these bounces, then they can continue to work to the upside.
And I know what I'm holding from a business standpoint.
There's reasons to believe that they can rebound and, you know, head higher.
reasons to believe that they can rebound and, you know, head higher. So yeah, I'm just sticking to
the quality names outside of, I mean, not to say I'm not standing in the quality names in, um,
like bios and healthcare, but just specifically outside of that, I'm trying my best to,
to not go on for super high valuations right now. I think we kind of sped run that in October and
we saw the pre, you know, we saw the repercussions of, you know,
allowing valuation to take a backseat.
And we saw a lot of names get chopped 40, 50%.
I don't know if the market,
the risk appetite is there to just load back up
and head back into these names.
I think you can see it in some of these names like Iron.
You could see some of the bounces
that are turning into dead cat bounces
i didn't see what that stock did today um but generally saying like those yeah i mean like
today's bounce is semi-pathetic um yeah i mean almost 100 day agree with you but it still looks
like not a great oh no no the chart needs a lot of work yeah exactly so like I'm not trying to buy
one of these things that look like I mean I think people forget like it's a $44 stock and yes it's
not the same business as it was six months ago but six months ago was a six dollar stock and so it's
up 7x in six months I don't know know, I think people need to probably give that perspective
and have a frame of reference there. So I, I'm personally like as much as I want to be as much
as the next guy, YOLOing things that go to the moon. Um, but I'm not in that mode right now.
And yeah, I would say stock talk, your picks lately have actually been very reasonable and
rational with the valuations that back them in the nice themes like the ens is the amcores etc
so i think you're kind of on the same page with me you just want to be able to own quality but
obviously you're sticking to the mid caps i just see enough opportunity right now with the beaten
down larger caps that i'm willing to take a swing i don't think you're wrong there i mean there's
there's large caps that i've wanted to buy here to meta is one that I want to buy I may still buy it I don't know I want to add some like 800 leaps on that or 700 leaps
on that as far out as I can go how far does that chain even go also like
December 28th dude I mean I was thinking about doing that too I don't know what
to do I'm just there is I'm just super prudent because I mean at the same time
like I wasn't sure like you know
obviously these last couple days have been very constructive but the last thing i want to do is
being like these super low delta calls and then the market turns back around and then you know
they get absolutely crushed here's the thing though about like the large caps that are beaten
down the one thing that bugs me opportunity cost wise is like there are mid caps that are beaten down and they're going
to recover more quickly and have a higher beta recovery and i just prefer that so yeah i do think
there are large caps that are compelling here like i said meta i think is one of them there's
mega caps even though i think are compelling here i added a couple calls to amazon this week nothing
big but you know i increased the size from like three to four percent of the portfolio but um yeah there are i i just
i don't know i've had so many mid caps this year that have become large caps that it's like been
my entire portfolio driver so i have a question for you, though. I think the problem, though, is that if I was to say, like, probability-wise, which stock is more likely to recover, I'm probably taking the mega cap or large cap over the mid cap.
But I'm not necessarily saying that the recovery will be bigger on the large cap, right?
Obviously, the recovery will be bigger on the mid cap.
Broadly speaking, I would agree with you.
But stock picking-wise wise i wouldn't because
i mean i obviously i'm confident that i'm gonna pick the right ones right so it's yes yeah if
you're if you're taking a broad-based approach would i say there's more large caps that are
going to recover more easily than the mid-caps that have pulled back yeah but i mean i'm not buying 20 of them you know and i don't
think you are either and so here's one one thought like yeah i feel you on that but actually the
mid-caps i want to own didn't pull back much they they don't like the ones the ones i want to buy
i've looked at those mid-caps they can't catch a bounce dude like they're not doing anything
so they're still by their lows,
and they're having weaker bounces than MercadoLibre and Meta and Amazon.
So, like, I don't know.
Maybe you have, like, this list of them that you're looking at.
I mean, I have, like, 25 stocks on a short list, mid-caps,
that I think are all at reasonable evaluations.
Have they all pulled back?
No, you're right.
A lot of them haven't. And even some of my highest conviction positions that I want to add to have not pulled back to allow me to add to them. You know, like ENS, for example, just won't
budge. It just will not go red. It's kind of annoying because like, I want to add to that.
I would like for it to come back to the one twenties or something, but it just won't.
So, but i also think
that's a good thing like the fact that there are some of these mid caps that will not go down
that to me shows that they have unwilling sellers you know and i want to own those names so
i don't know i mean i have right now i have 14 positions let me sort by market cap here
so amazon and tesla those are obviously mega caps those are legacy positions
i've owned those since 2015 robin hood besides that is my biggest position my in terms of market
caps not my biggest position it's a small weighting but it's 120 billion market cap
that's also a legacy position it's a small weighting and then behind that the next highest is nebius at 25 then kratos at 12 hii at 12 amcor at 10
path at 7.8 ens five and then all the way down i mean and then oss is my smallest at 150 million
and that's the only small cap i have but it's like it's pretty much all mid caps but dude have you have you looked at the charts of your stocks which
obviously speaks to your stock picking ability because these are really quality stocks because
dude none of them are down they're down less than like 10 percent you know what i mean like
yeah no yeah that's that's the thing is but that but that's i didn't get into them when they were
at the highs, you know.
No, I'm more talking about, like, opportunities right now for new positions, for example. Stuff that's gotten smashed.
Yes.
Yeah, there aren't that many mid-caps.
It's probably easier to find, if you want stuff that's gotten smashed, it's probably easier to find large caps.
I'll agree with you on that.
Yeah, that's all I'm saying.
Like, I agree with you.
Like, I would love, you know, if it was, you know, I've tried slamming some of these mid-caps that are broken down,
but they just stay broken.
Like, nobody's saving them.
So if anything's going to get saved right now,
it feels like it's the metas and whatnot that are more likely to catch a bid
if they're from the beaten up basket.
You know what I mean?
Yeah.
I just think there are more UI paths out there, in my opinion.
Yeah, UI path. Yeah, I mean, that's a great problem. But I think there are more UI paths out there in my opinion yeah you I pop yeah I mean that's a that's a great but I think they're more like that
yeah I think what like I'll kind of drop a little gem here for the new traders in
the audience who don't really know how to find stocks but one of the things I
look at frequently when I'm looking at inflections is quarter
over quarter sequential growth in a stock that has negative TTM growth.
Okay.
So stock's cheap because it has negative TTM revenue growth.
It's in a hot sector.
And then you start seeing sequential growth quarter over quarter.
That is a really good sign to take a closer look and see why you're seeing that sequential growth quarter over quarter. That is a really good sign to take a closer look
and see why you're seeing that sequential growth. Are you seeing, you know,
it's funny you say that because I have a stock exactly like that. Um, I think I might've mentioned
it to you. It's that 10 X genomics, that TXG. That's exactly what's happening to that stock.
It's like, yeah, that would be a great one then yeah exactly so yeah but funny i agree with that no no yeah and i know you know your stuff you're i mean you're
doing great this year and you're a great stock worker i'm mostly saying to the you know the
people in the audience that are listening to our conversation like how do you notice these things
when you find those small inflections then you can start taking a deeper look and saying like okay
why is the revenue inflecting is this just a stabilization in the revenue decline,
or is something changing in the business? Did they change a focus of the business?
You know, like for the small cap I own for OSS, that's exactly what is happening there,
is that they've pivoted away from these clean room servers are now doing very specialized,
rugged, transportable, on-site, battlefield-deployed type of servers.
Those servers are a very, very special niche.
Since they started doing that, what happened?
Revenue is inflected massively.
They just posted 37% year-over-year growth.
And their profitability is starting to inflect, too.
Once you start seeing that, you ask yourself, okay, is it thematically relevant?
In other words, will the multiple expanders come for it? Is there a potential for earnings growth? Which means,
hey, even if the multiple expanders don't come for it, can I still win on earnings growth?
That's important. It's very important. The best stocks are stocks that can win on both.
Those are the best stock picks. Almost all of my best picks this year, the top seven, I listed this yesterday in a tweet, the top seven contributors for me this year, Amcor, ENS, Vav, Nebius, Kratos, Robinhood, these names, all were when I first bought them.
was, hey, the multiple could expand because they are part of a hot theme, but they could also see
earnings growth as a result of their participation in that theme. If you get both, those are your
super performing stocks. Those are the stocks that go up two or three hundred percent in six
months and never look back. Right. Those are those types of stocks. So I'll talk a lot about
confluence, technical confluence, fundamental confluence. You also want to look for these types of things where you have two ways to win, you know,
on a name.
And when you find that and you find a fundamental inflection, then you go look at the chart,
or at least that's what I do.
For me, the chart is always a verifying tool and not an idea origination tool, right?
All my ideas come from the theme and the fundamentals, and then I verify on the chart.
So then you go look at the charts of these names and you're like, okay,
do I see signs of accumulation? Do I see these big green volume bars where the stock's being bought
and really low volume selling where the stock's being sold? Do I see structure intact? Do I see
recapturing of key moving averages? Do I see the short-term moving averages, like the 921 EMAs pointing up
or pointing down? That's important. Do I see price consolidating high and tight, or do I see price
acting belligerent? These are important signs to know how your shareholder base is acting,
what the expectations are for the stock. Once you've clarified all that, then you're like,
okay, cool. I have a story. I have a fundamental inflection. I have a supportive chart and I can go hit the buy button. And as
opposed to that, what a lot of new traders are doing, and the reason some of you have suffered
so badly in this last month when we've seen a regime change is because you're unwilling to
go through the checklist. And instead what you do is find one or two good
reasons to buy a stock and you just buy it. You can make quick decisions while also checking
all of that information that I listed. I'm going to give you guys, I don't give away too much about
how I use AI because I do want to protect that mode a little bit, but I'm going to give you guys
a very basic prompt if you're a new trader to put into an AI. Okay. If you want
to learn about a company, the very basics about a company, you go to the AI and you ask it to tell
you, I'm just spitballing here. So I may miss some things, but you ask it to tell you the gross
operating and net margins of the company. You ask it to tell you the annual free cashflow of the
company. You ask it to tell you the gross operating and net margins of the peers of that company. You ask it to tell you the annual free cash flow of the company. You ask it to tell you the gross operating and net margins of the peers of that company. Okay. That is important
because then you're going to get a grasp of what industry standard margins are.
And then you can actually decide if the margins that your company are putting up are impressive.
Then you're going to ask, what are the products that the company produces? What are the main
products? Could be services if it's a services company company then you're going to go back and say okay what are the main
top selling products okay what are the divisions of the company do they have three different
divisions they have one do they have six some depending on how diversified the company is
then find out what the growth rate is for each of those divisions. Okay.
Then figure out whichever division is growing the fastest.
Why is it growing the fastest?
Is there a pricing power advantage?
Is there a technological emote?
Why is that division growing the fastest?
Why are they capturing market share there?
Find that out.
Then compare the growth rate in that division with other peers who have the same division.
Right. that division with other peers who have the same division, right? These are the types of things you
need to do to truly understand a stock, truly understand it, not just read the Robinhood
description and then, um, uh, you know, ask chat CPT, what do they do? And then say, okay,
I like what they do and buy the stock. That's not enough work. It's not enough work. And all of the things that I said, just to check, you can check them 10 minutes
in an AI, literally check their margins, check their profitability, their free cashflow. What's
their total debt load? Is the debt load serviceable? You can ask ChatGPT to analyze the debt load and
say, Hey, is this a serviceable debt load? Okay. You can ask, um, like, I mean, I could go on on and on i could sit here for an hour talking about
things you should basic information you should ask but a lot of the things i just mentioned are
some of the basics and you know once you figure that out and have a formula of all the basic
information you need to know about a stock you do that for every single stock that you consider
buying every single one And then you have a
base by which to compare stock to stock to stock to stock from margins to debt to growth rate to
your bottom and top line growth to industry peer margins. What's the comparison? What's the
deficit, right? If industry standard margins are 13%, your stock's running 20% margins, find out why.
And find out if it's sustainable.
And conversely, if you have a stock that's running 60% margins in an industry where the industry standard margin is 30%, find out if it can last.
Find out what's driving that.
Is the pricing power fleeting?
Is it sustainable?
This is how you really understand stocks.
The shit that you hear on Twitter is bullshit.
You don't just look at the chart and look at the revenue growth and look at the PE
ratio and you know the stock. That's not enough. It's just not enough. You're not differentiating
yourself from any of the holders by knowing that. You have to intimately know the business,
why the business is attractive. And if you sat down and asked the average person, a holder of
a stock, why is the business that you own attractive? They're not going to tell you any of this information.
You know, me and Ahmed have been running the show, the Equity Edge show recently.
The first few episodes, I shared some pitches, Amcor, Ian, SVF, but I don't buy new stocks every week.
So, you know, the last couple of weeks when I haven't had new picks, we've been talking about just bringing people on for pitches.
And I just ask very basic questions.
Like, these are guys that know they're coming on the show.
They're going to pitch a stock.
And I'm not knocking any of the people that came on that show, by the way.
You're all great people and very cool people.
But it's shocking to me sometimes, like, the lack of basic knowledge that people have.
Like, some people don't even know what the margins are of a stock they own.
They don't even know what the gross margins are.
They don't know what the operating margin is.
They don't know why it's impressive
or why it's not impressive.
You know, they don't know what the free cash flow is.
They don't know if the company even generates free cash flow.
They don't know the difference
between free cash flow generation and profitability.
They don't know the difference between
earnings and profitability.
They don't know the difference between these things.
And that's why they're lost.
That's why most of you can't hold stocks through volatility.
This is the honest to God truth reason because you don't know what's going on.
Like you don't even understand what you own.
And I always come back to this no way you own bumper sticker billboard statement.
And it annoys me because then people hear that and they think what a rudimentary stupid thing to say.
And it annoys me because then people hear that and they think, what, like, what a rudimentary, stupid thing to say.
But it's all of this nuance behind that statement that I've been ranting about for the last three minutes.
That is what informs that statement, what forms that bumper sticker slogan of knowing what you own.
Like, really, actually know what you own.
Not just the P-E ratio and the daily chart and, you know, the basic Robin hood description of the company.
That is not enough information. You're not differentiating yourself. You will not be an
elite stock picker by doing that level of basic work. You're just going to be willy nilly holding
it. When the stock goes down 20%, you're probably going to sell it. And when stock breaks below,
it's 50 day, you're going to be like, Oh, it's below 50 day. I can't own this thing because you
don't know the story, you know? So don't be that person, like really understand the names you own.
And if you want to reach out of your comfort zone, then do the work to reach out of your
comfort zone.
Don't just reach out of your comfort zone because, you know, you're like, oh, I think
transportation's hot right now.
So I want to pick up some transportation stocks.
The only way you can ever act that way
is if you're an ETF trader,
which 99% of you are not in the chat
or in the audience, I know that.
99% of you are picking stocks, okay?
And so as long as you're doing that,
then all of this matters.
If you want to be like,
oh, I see relative strength in transportation,
I want to buy XTN and own it. And like, oh, now I see relative strength technology
on by XLK and own it. Yeah, you can do that. And you don't really need to know the details of
anything, which is why ETF trading and owning is much easier. But if you want to do this
stressful game called stock picking, you must put in the work or you'll just be average.
And that's a painful feeling if you put in like the work that some individual stock pickers put in i mean some people put in you know as much work as as actually elite stock pickers do
they're 20 30 hours a week on research and still underperform if you're in that position then you're
not doing the right type of work i probably put like 10 to 12 hours a day you know yeah yeah it's like constant i mean it's
like my job i mean i never stop reading yeah yeah it's not reading dude like girls will get mad at
me on dates because i'm checking my phone too much like you know it's i it's not a great work
life balance but i love the game. I love the game.
I wake up on Monday mornings excited.
The first thing I do, I get up in the morning, I take a shower, I get my coffee out, and
I'm just ready to go.
My computer's fired up.
I love the game.
Passion helps, but the passion isn't the only part of it.
A lot of you are passionate about stocks and just know nothing.
I'm not trying to insult anyone, but like, I see this a lot.
Like people are very gung ho about, you know,
and you ask them what the gross margin of the company is.
And then they're marked intervening.
Well, dude, stock talk. I mean, just here's the thing, right?
Like, um, I, you know, I, I have like a lot of educational background.
Like, you know, I studied for years and years in my undergrad, grad, etc.
So I'm very much first, I have to get educated on as many concepts as I can before I go out
into the wild and apply them.
So I think people probably skip that step.
And I'm not saying to go read textbooks.
Textbooks are boring and probably outdated.
They're not very practical. But if you just go start with like One Up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch,
that's what I always tell people to start with. Like something, you know, the way you read it is
kind of like you're having a conversation with him. Super chill and casual. You could read some
Howard Marks. Like you could read like these kind of low-hanging fruit books that help you with
perspective and know what to look for now
Obviously those books are you know older at this point and they're not mess
Exactly like word for word what you should be doing but general perspective wise they help a lot and then you get into the specifics about like
Okay, I know what I'm looking for now
Like let me dig into the actual
Financials of this company. oh okay like you know this company
does this who are the peers in this group let me go look into that like you're saying you have to
do the full landscape tour but like and then that's how you kind of learn by like like the
only reason why i knew magnite so well is because i've looked at all their competitors and i've
looked at pubmatic and i've looked at trade desk and i've looked at all their earnings press
releases you know the industry yeah like you need to know that they all report on adjusted EBITDA,
but you know, there are other fields, there are other like software goes based off annual
recurring revenue and net retention rates. And it's like, if, and then you know, you know,
you need free cashflow margins because they like to have a lot of stock-based comp. It's like,
you're not going to be able to know that unless you go and do the work to figure out like what you need to know about. So each industry is different.
I love when people, you know, just start out, you know, stock picking and they're like,
oh, look at this stock. It's so cheap. And then they'll come, you know, they'll compare it to a
stock in a completely different industry. It's like, dude, I love this, but like, you know,
you're going to, you probably have like three years till you get to the point of like enlightenment where you're like, oh, like, yeah, you, you don't, you know,
compare a company in aerospace to a company in like software. Like, that's just not how this works.
Do you cut out there?
No, no.
That's all I was going to say, but I was thinking of something else.
Oh, dude, I was going to ask you just a little bit off topic here,
but, man, that HRO, did you ever end up looking into it?
That thing was on.
I was about to buy Tuesday.
That's how I rip.
I even posted about it in the chat.
Yeah.
That's how I rip today.
Great call.
Yeah, yeah.
I mean, mean stocks still really
cheap and it could realistically go a lot higher I mean it has execution risk if
you know the bad you know yeah I was gonna take like a position or not for
some exposure but you know I miss yeah so it is not a big deal it's not a big
bill there will be another but like um you know the thing is know, I've basically been intrigued. No, it's not a big deal. It's not a big deal. There will be another. But, like, you know, the thing is, dude, like, I've actually cut a lot of these clinical names.
Like, I know we talk about PEPG.
I cut that one.
I cut, like, you know, I've been cutting names that I just don't feel like are in this constructive environment.
Like, I was just saying how there's, like, a lot of drama at the FDA.
You know, if you're in the clinical names, then there's obviously this narrative overhang.
And in the near term, sentiment is what these stocks will trade on.
Whether that sentiment is real or not, it affects the actual outcomes are probably low probability.
But in the near term, they're going to be an absolute headache to own.
So that's why I've been like shifting my focus to names that are either commercial which like
Harrow is and like several others they already got approval they're launching into their market
or like names that maybe haven't gotten approval yet but they've already reported their phase three
data and they're just basically like you know floating higher and hopefully gonna get bought
out or something like that so you know or like you own like a big pharma name
that just is riding up with XLV or something like that.
But yeah, I mean, point is just that you can buy things
that are after the binary event.
Buying things before the binary event is a really tough game.
Obviously, it's where you get explosive games,
but the risk-reward is really tough.
You know, we talked about this one PSNL where you caught that Merc
Investment
Yes, I that was that was a nice quick trade on that one. Yes
Dude, yeah, i'm still very long that stockman. I mean, it's one of my favorite names in the market
I think that was one of my best like short-term trades of the year
50 in a day and I think like I don't know if I was like in a tax-loss selling
period or something I just hesitated 50% I want to go back and see hold on I want to see when this
was because I remember that yeah yeah it went from like four to seven or something like in a day
okay it was back oh it was at the start of the year no it was last year something like that that
sounds right yeah that, that sounds fair.
PSNL, because I'm seeing, I'm looking at my PSNL performance chart,
and it says 1219 when I bought it, and then 1220, 1221.
Yeah, so going into the, yeah, 106, 103, so January 3rd.
So that stock, I've been talking about it a while and like
you know i already knew this was going to go a lot higher um the story is just really too good
it's like the some lead like execs from natera left natera to go to this psnl to um build like
their cancer detection tests which are higher sensitivity or higher, yeah, higher sensitivity than the Terra. And Terra is like a 40 times the market cap of PSNL. And then you got PSNL not only
has like potentially better cancer detection tests, but Tempest owns an 18% stake in the company.
They've been increasing it over time and they're partnered on like distributing their tests to a
lot of different like physicians offices and stuff. So they have like hundreds of people like marketing their tests. So you have like this growth engine,
you have somebody kind of backing them. And it fits right in like the Tempest AI portfolio.
And if you look at the, you know, the performance of PSNL versus Tempest, I mean, they're both
volatile, but like PSNL has been outperforming handily. And just recently, they got the insurance
reimbursement coverage,
which was better than expected on one of their tests. They still have another two that they're
waiting for and they expect those. I think getting the first one was just like a really,
I feel like that's like a watershed moment. And so, you know, this one, you got to think about
like what the upside could be. I mean, they do need capital to scale up, but who cares?
I don't think raising capital would be an issue
when they have the product and they have the insurance coverage, then they can just meet
the volume. I mean, I actually sat down with a short seller who basically was sitting there,
like I heard out his pitch on the short thesis and he literally one week before they got insurance
coverage, which I've been waiting for, for like a year. He's like, I just don't think they're
going to get insurance coverage. The stocks are zero. Like I've been in this field for 20 years. And then a
week later, he gets insurance coverage and I'm like, okay, so the bear thesis is dead or what?
Like, you know, just incredible turn of events. But I mean, we'll see what happens. Obviously,
they're still burning cash, but they just raised a hundred mil. We'll see. But you know, it's one
of those things where the stock goes up in price, but
because it gets de-risk, the risk reward actually gets better. So, you know, that's kind of what
I'm waiting for. And it was trading like crap after the insurance coverage. But I think it's
because it was when the entire market was like kind of pulling back and these high beta stocks
were pulling back. And it's a major holding
in arc g so i think because arc g was probably getting shorted to oblivion during the pullback
it was just getting shorted in the meantime so it was a little tricky of a situation
crypto's trying to look good here look at his action right now oh god don't tell me dude this
thing pisses me off man i got whipipsawed out of this thing, man.
What, crypto?
Yeah, man.
You were just long Ethereum?
Oh, my God.
I mean, I tried to buy some micro strategy and stuff, too.
But that Monday morning, just losing the nine after four sessions of trying to hold it just seemed like really weak action.
But maybe I got shaken out and it was the bottom.
I don't know what to tell you.
I don't know.
It's a tough one.
I think I'm just going to stick to things that won't, like, die 10% for no reason on a random Monday.
I mean, Bitcoin recaptured the 21 EMA today.
Yeah, I see that right now.
It actually looks pretty good.
And it's higher than those.
It looks really good.
Yeah, it does look good.
I'm not going to lie.
I may have in my DJ and Calci
account took a bet that Bitcoin would get
above 100k at some point this year.
That's not a bad bet.
That's not a bad bet, Evan.
That's the first bet I've ever heard out of your mouth
that I don't think of.
Let me look up ETH. What's ETH looking like?
ETH is actually stronger.
Yeah, it's breaking news.
I'm only down like 25% on BMNR.
I might get some BMNR calls.
No joke.
God, I just hate these things, man.
BMNR is a fantastic...
My phone's just died.
I'm the one talking about a great trader as an investment, but BMNR has been a fantastic My phone's just died. I'm the one talking about a great trader
as an investment, but BMNR has been
a fantastic trader.
Now, it's also chopped you up a lot,
I'm sure, but
I can afford to take some meme
risk into the end of the year.
I mean,
I would just be using it as a high beta
vehicle to play ETH. I wouldn't be keeping it
It would be a trade but real quick though stock talk. I mean at that point though like
BM and or is the high beta eat
so why would you even need calls on top of that? I'm a degenerate I
Mean look if it's gonna work it can really work because these things can be up 10% of the day
It's just doing I'm telling you right now, it's the most
frustrating things to trade, man.
I've honestly gone to point out, because of how much
my portfolio has grown, I just
can't take equity on
that kind of stuff.
I mean, honestly, the only
exception I've made recently to that is OSS,
just because I really, really loved
that small cap, but
other than that, I mean, mean i generally if it's a
spec thing like yeah even a even like a small weighting in my portfolio now is like a lot of
money so i don't want to i don't want to get bagged like 20 on a serious amount of capital so
i've just been doing a lot of risk is premium paid like honestly dude on on amcor like the guy i own a lot
of shares but like a lot of my size comes from the options that i layered onto that position same
thing for ens like i mean ens was when i got into those calls was like 112 stock and when i got into
the calls they were like 29 ivy because the stock had barely moved and you know now they've inflated and the stock has just
gone up in a straight line since then but um i made an insane amount of money on on that because
of the fact that i had layered exposure with calls and so for me like it's been a more effective way
to take earnings related risk and like yeah even with path moves faded a little bit it's still
up about 10 after hours but like i bought them far out enough that i'll be able to like position
out of them if i need and the thing with a stock like bmnr and i'm not saying i'm for sure gonna
buy it we'll see i'm you know i do want some eth exposure but maybe i'll just go with an ethereum etf but um i would not like allow that stock to go against me like i would just cut it instantly i don't
have that attitude about most names um like logically you're you're a lot more willing to
do that than i am like in terms of just cutting it right away i'm generally more patient, but if it's like a meme stock, I'm not, you know,
like if I see, like, if I get into a meme name, it's generally going to be with momentum. So I'm
going to be getting in above the nine and 21 EMAs. I'm not going to bottom fish meme names ever.
So I'm just speaking strategy here. If I was entering, let's say flat on the 21 EMA on a meme
name and I got a 21 EMA forfeit, I would just instantly cut it, you know, or if I was entering, let's say, flat on the 21 EMA on a meme name, and I got a 21 EMA forfeit, I would just instantly cut it.
Or if I was entering on the 9, which would be an aggressive entry for me,
I generally don't enter on the 9.
I try to get at least a 21 EMA flat entry if I can.
But if I was entering on the 9,
I would cut it instantly on a 9 forfeit.
I wouldn't wait for a 21 drop.
I mean, I guess it depends on how tight they are.
I mean, if they're 50-3-4.
The issue is, man, like Sunday night, Bitcoin and...
Yeah, you're right.
They can do anything over the weekend.
You can just get gapped down.
I get that.
Yeah, that's the issue.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So it's just such a volatile BS.
So it's just such a volatile BS.
Like, I mean, it's probably going to be the most rewarding trade when it works.
But it's just like you think it's going to work and then it just punishes you.
I mean, I'll say it looks better now.
I mean, I thought, you know, maybe the nine reclaim.
Like, if you look at the Bitcoin chart, right?
And you look at, if you're looking at the daily, I mean, that volume of the wick down
to 80,000 looked like the bottom, right?
Because you had huge wick that got bought up, big volume.
And then you see the next like two days, you see that candle.
So that big wick is on Friday, November 21.
If you look at that, it's kind of like a reversal.
You look at two days later, November
23, Sunday, you see that green candle closed above the highs of the candle on that Friday,
November 21, right? So that kind of looks like a reversal. So to me, it felt like, okay,
like big volume on a wick that gets bought up. Then you get this reversal candle and then it kind of stalls for a second,
pushes higher, goes above the nine EMA.
And it's just kind of consolidating ready for that next leg up.
And then it just breaks below it like 10% in a day.
It's just, yeah, no, it's brutal.
But I would size it small, you know, like if I was going to get some, some exposure but i would size it small you know like if i was gonna
get some some exposure i'd size it very small like two to three percent and just let it ride you
know and then put some options leverage on it so if i do hit i hit big that's kind of how i've
been approaching a lot of stuff like dude digital ocean like um has held up its value in my portfolio just because that position had those, you know,
I have like 150 of those calls for 37 and a half for February. And those are up like 100 percent.
And the stock has come off so much from the highs and they're still up 100 percent.
And like playing it with that was the right move for me. Like when, you know, if that stock is 60 by February, which I think it
could be, um, you know, I'll exercise some of those at the 37 and a half goals. And so I've
actually, I was taught when I first started trading, um, by a lot of like younger traders,
like never exercise. And I think with a small account, it's insanely stupid to do,
never exercise and i think with a small account it's insanely stupid to do but once you have like
a big account it makes sense to do sometimes and i've been doing more of it recently like
you know i have some and i have some vav calls uh 14 calls that are expiring uh december 19th in like a couple weeks i'm gonna
be exercising for a large lot of them i got them at 79 cents you know they're trading at four bucks
now the stock's at you know eight 17 18 bucks we're gonna close today close at 1750 you know
i'll get the shares at 1479 on a high conviction stock like it for me for the way i
trade for a positional based trader it's worth sacrificing that premium paid
to get the i'm with you man i don't know
you cut out there disagreeing with you i'm just saying yeah i was saying i'm not even knocking
you or disagree with you i'm just saying there's situations i think where where for me the calls
makes more sense than the shares i i totally agree with you i i think the way we differ is that
you prefer to go partial shares and partial calls the way i do it. Yeah. You like one or the other. Yeah. I like one
or the other. Cause it's just easier for my brain to process the position as like one position,
one holding in my portfolio. So like when I was long Teradyne, when it was at $90,
I bought the $90 calls. Um, you know, it was just 40%, uh, IV, you know, it's just a much easier,
when the IV is that low, it makes no sense.
And the stock's so oversold
and you have potential catalysts on the horizon.
It's extremely mispriced.
So to me, that's like Magnite.
When I knew that was gonna work,
I had just a ton of the leaps.
So yeah, I just pick one or the other.
What I will also say is that I generally, um, pick smaller caps than you and those holding onto small caps, like real small caps,
they're like so volatile. And the, the spreads on those options are untenable. Like, you know,
how illiquid they can be. And the spreads will be like $3 on a
contract. It's like, you can't even build a position. There is no position to build in the
calls. You know what I mean? So, um, uh, yeah. So I think it just depends on the name. I think
it's a case by case basis. Like, you know, if you were to buy personal as PSNL and you see the
volatility on that chart, one, it's horrific.
Two, the options chain is probably crap.
Maybe liquidity has picked up now, but when I was initially looking at it, there was nothing on the chain.
I didn't even know how far it went out.
The problem is that it just doesn't work for every position anyway.
Anything that's sub-50% IV, I think like I had ETH calls earlier
this year. I bought them on July 9th, literally the bottom before it went up like, you know,
ETH went up like 60%. Those calls went up like three, 400% in a couple months. And the IV on ETH,
literally the Ethereum ETF, the IV was like 42% when I bought them. Now, if you look at
those calls, they're like 75%. So, you know, that's where you get IV expansion and all that
good stuff. So I agree with you. Like when it makes sense, it just makes more sense to buy the
calls. But if that's the case, if it makes more sense to buy the calls, I'll just buy the whole positioning calls.
I will say, though, you got me... I agree with you.
Maybe I just got shaken out on this crypto stuff.
Reclaiming the 21 is really nice.
The market generally looks bullish.
I do want to have Ethereum exposure.
Back to the drawing board.
I need to think on this a little bit. I like Ethereum, and I'd like to have ethereum exposure back to the drawing board i need a i need to think on this a little bit i like ethereum and i'd like to have exposure so i gotta i gotta think about the best way to
express that i wonder if any of these exchanges um i don't know if they're moving off ethereum
specifically as opposed to crypto in general um but my mind
went to the robin hits and the coin bases i'm sure there's some smaller cap names that could
be interesting in that area i also think that one thing i will say is every way to play it
i don't know if bmr is the right way like the ivy's too high bro gonna give you it will it will
be yeah i was going to my assumptions but will. But will the IV come down, though?
It's not like there's an event.
It came down, at one point
on MSPR.
50%. I don't remember.
I don't know what it is now, but at one point for MSPR,
it came down way low.
What'd you say, Sam?
Sam, if the IV gets sucked out
of it, that's a losing battle for your options
anyway.
Yeah, you don't want to
fight a compressing
IV. I agree with that completely.
You want to buy it when you think it's going
to inflect back up, obviously.
Or when you think it's bottomed out.
I mean, a lot of
the stocks I've bought this year, I bought
IV when it was 30%, 40%.
That can be money in the bank if you
hit it like I just checked a bunch of the chains on ETH a and they're all like
70% IV like again when I was buying it in July it was like 45% you know yeah
and ever see either like I will say didn't MSC are drop over that drop under that M now the other day
sitting you're basically buying it at the Ethereum that's a Bitcoin to have
on the balance really I believe people were talking that it fell below the end
of yesterday or two days ago or whatever it was okay well I would like to have
to be verified but that's interesting also yeah verify also it had the highest volume in a year
uh two days ago on that monday
i mean it does look like it could have bottomed i don't know man i got shaken out that day i'm not
gonna lie but it's just such a tough trade but if it works it works i mean it still kind of looks
like a bear flag here but that volume is too good.
MSTR is a lot weaker than Ethereum and Bitcoin, though.
That's what concerns me.
It's much weaker than the rest of everything that's bouncing.
It's oversold.
But the structure-wise, I mean,
you're trying to get a bullish engulfing on an inside week.
You look at Bitcoin and Ethereum, both of those are in the second inside week still.
You need a little bit further push up to break out of that.
You do that, it looks a little bit better.
But if you stall here, then you're still stuck.
I mean, I think here's another thing is like, how many times have we kind of come to this understanding of like,
to this understanding of like i think you know stock talk you've mentioned it before but like
I think, you know, StockOak, you've mentioned it before.
if you are bullish if you're bullish the underlying then why would you belong the treasury company
and and it could just be that the treasury company has been more punished if anything you've seen
uh jim chanos yeah yeah no if you're doing it when i said that logical what i meant was like if you
are bullish on the asset long term i completely yeah, yeah, I think you should sell the asset.
But I'm not trying to get long term exposure to the asset.
I'm trying to make a trade because I think Bitcoin looks bottomed out here.
And I think it probably mean reverse.
So, you know, that's what I'm trying to do.
So, yeah, I'm trying to look for the highest beta vehicle, to be honest.
But I don't want to pay 111% IV for the call.
Exactly, bro.
That's the important distinction to StockTag
on the approach there is like,
okay, if you're taking it for a trade,
then yes, you can get some higher beta moves
in BM&R and MSTR.
But if you're taking it for more of a swing trader investment
i don't see i don't see uh an argument that says don't buy the asset over or
oh i don't see an argument where you would not buy the asset over the treasury i agree yes you
buy the asset if you're if you're like bullish on bitcoin for your children or whatever buy the
asset you're pulling on ethereum ethereum for you know your grandchildren, buy the asset. Your bullet on Ethereum for your grandchildren
or whatever, buy the asset.
Don't buy
the...
The treasuries. Yeah, the treasuries.
They're going to be extremely volatile
and there's exogenous
risk about management
and managerial decisions
and preferred shares that
might be erected and dilute your existing
shares etc etc so well also stock talk just on that like i mean if you wanted a higher beta
version to play this but you still agree with the asset or whatever i mean the beauty is that now we
have etfs which you could buy calls on and i mean etha is. It's not great, but the asset is down 40%.
Like if you think that this is the bottom of crypto, even if you pay the higher IV,
I mean, not the stock's cheap, but you know what I mean?
Like it's beaten up.
So you could still probably do really well at this level on ETH.
I just think you just need the distinction of, am I playing an oversold recovery bounce,
you know, or am I trying to make an investment?
And you could even play it both ways.
You could even say, okay, start out with MSTR or BMNR or whatever, play that bounce.
I'll take that higher beta gain and then transfer it over to the asset if it continues to recover.
I agree with what you're saying, Emp. and I guess what I'm trying to say,
to even simplify that trade further, you just take the full position in ETHA calls,
and then eventually, if you want to convert some of it to holdings,
then you can exercise half the calls and then hold the holdings.
You know what I mean? That gives you options.
Yeah, that makes sense too, right? That's a good thought.
A lot of ways. I love stocks love stocks man it's so fun that's why i like what stock talk was saying he thinks about all the time because there's just so many creative ways that you can do stuff there's
literally a million ways that you can invest in and structure different things it's like i think
about when stock talk was making that point a while ago all i could think about was like all
the college like successful college coaches that I had and was around.
They were the same way.
They were at the office at four or five in the morning.
You're on a plane flight after a game and they're watching film and going seat by seat.
Like they never stopped because they just really like love it.
Yeah, I mean, I personally think like I'd probably do etha calls if i got in and i would just stop
doing all these like tertiary adjacent names personally it's just too much bs like why do i
need like three like why do i need a basket of these they're all trading together so just pick
the one you like the most that makes the most sense like ethereum is probably going to be less
volatile than the adjacent ones that are higher beta versions and then you already have calls but because you have calls you can size it lower
than the equity i just uh i put it in the llm here it looks like confirmed mstr did drop below a one
m nav on december the third approximately a 13% discount to the fair market value of its Bitcoin treasury
alone.
Yeah, I mean, I think
like with MSTR and BMNR,
you basically just buy shares,
but if you buy ETHA,
you buy calls. I think that's the trade.
Yeah.
Yeah, maybe.
I don't know. I'll figure it out. i don't even know if i need exposure dude like no you don't you don't need but like it's just i do like the idea of like ethereum the most in the
ecosystem um but yeah i mean like all i was saying is like bmn, MSTR, they're going to have super high IV,
so the options aren't going to really feel worth it.
And if you wanted options to make it a smaller percent of your portfolio
so that you get the higher beta, then you get the ETHJ calls or the IBIT calls.
So it's either the asset calls or the shares on the treasuries.
I just think that makes the most mathematical sense
for the record stock talk you are playing it a little bit i would say if the vision for ethereum
plays out over the next couple years of tokenization and i'm not only for a couple
years no shot i'm saying right i'm saying robin hood basically is how you're kind of playing this
if ethereum works out like i think it will if robhood will be a... Robinhood or Robinhood S companies will be benefactors.
Robinhood will not be selling for a long time.
So, yeah.
That's a good proxy exposure.
But, hmm.
You know, one mistake I make,
I know we haven't talked a lot about mistakes this year
because, I mean, this is my best year ever.
It's been a record year for me, so it's been probably more successful mistakes.
But one mistake I make still frequently, it's more psychological than anything, I guess, is when I'm hot, I want to buy more stuff.
And I don't know why exactly.
I think part of me thinks it's like oh the market's hot but
there hasn't been a single gap up this year that I haven't been like exposed enough for
I've been I've been long on margin for most of the year I mean the only
time I've had any amount of cash was like in the last month when I've raised a little bit of cash
like four to six percent cash but um outside that, I've been margin long the whole year.
And so there hasn't been like a gap up in the market where I'm like,
oh, fuck, like I have no exposure.
That hasn't happened.
But what does happen to me is like when I'm on these streaks,
like the last six days because of Amcor mostly,
but a couple of other positions have moved decently as well.
Also, the fact that Inersis has held up
during this entire correction,
that's probably my second saving grace.
Those are my two largest positions.
But Amcor ripping this week
and the amount of leverage I have in that position
just, like, ripped my portfolio higher.
Like, surge.
You can see it on the performance chart.
I'll pin it again on this, actually.
But the cool thing about this performance chart I shared this morning is you can see all of last
year too. And so you can see, you know, the pullbacks of my portfolio last year, last year
to 260% this year, I'm at 540. So the net return on the initial starting capital from last year is
1000%. And these Weebull returns, by the way, are time weighted now.
So that doesn't the it's not impacted by deposits and withdrawals.
These are time weighted now.
Webull adjusted that like what, six weeks ago on their platform.
There used to be money weighted, the ones I would post.
And some people were like, oh, dude, what if you're exploiting your return by depositing and doing so?
That doesn't matter now because they're time weighted.
So, you know, there's no way to fib it. But you can see during last year, like how those corrections were handled.
And a lot of that is because I would size up into aggression, like when my portfolio was being
aggressive and acting aggressively and going up a lot and then have to downsize aggressively when the market would pull back. And some of those pullbacks
in my performance chart would have been a lot shallower had I not done that. So that's a mistake
that I do frequently and I'm trying to do less often. And right now I have 14 stocks. One thing
I really liked about these last three weeks was it forced me to really say what I wanted to own and get rid of the stuff where I was like, you know what, I'm fine not owning that for X, Y, and Z reasons.
And so I got it down to 14 stocks that I'm very comfortable with.
And yeah, there's five or six other stocks that I want to buy, but I'm not racing in to buy them because I don't want to make that mistake again headed into the end of the year.
The last thing I want to do is jeopardize my performance.
Now, my portfolio is back at all time highs after a pretty decent drawdown.
So I don't want to jeopardize that now.
And, you know, going into next year, that's when I'll throw darts.
So for now, I'm kind of okay with the 14
positions i have and maybe i'll add one more into the end of the year there's one actually that i'm
eyeing like a hawk right now that i do want so we'll see if that presents itself but um i'm
waiting for the right entry like always i have to get a nice flat attractive entry and if i can get
it then we'll see but i'm comfortable where I'm at. I
don't want to make that mistake that I know that I make. I'm like cognizant of the fact that I make
that mistake when my portfolio is hot and my portfolio is hot right now. So I don't want to
make that mistake. So yeah, if I do add anything, it'll be one or two positions, not five or six,
like I usually do when I feel like the markets are getting ready to rip. But I will say if Bitcoin holds this capture through this weekend,
that's bullish for speculation, I think.
And I will also say, just anecdotally speaking,
today's action in the robotics name is bullish.
Not just for speculation, but for the market.
You want to see that working.
You need to have thematic intraday catalysts working for the market you want to see that working you need to have like thematic
intraday catalyst working for the market to really work for to really churn for liquidity to really
churn so um that was good to see today it was the first day in a long time that the thematic trade
has sort of worked and it worked big i mean go look at those robotics names they don't know if
anybody was watching them but um they were up a lot. You know, iRobot was up 75%.
Aiva Technologies was up 25%.
Rich Tech Robotics was up 18%.
Serve Robotics was up 18%.
Arb Robotics was up 15%.
AUR Innovation was up 13%.
Paladine was up 10%.
Symbiotic was up 9%.
Allegro Microsystems was up 9%.
Ouster was up 8.5%.
So, yeah, like robotic stocks ripped face today.
Big, big, big rips.
Some of the best performing stocks in the market.
So that means themes are working
because this morning there was a robotics headline
about the Trump administration
considering an executive order about robotics.
And that was enough to get these stocks,
not just off the mat,
but get them to make 18 to 25 to,
in iRobot's case, a 75% move intraday um and they held into the
close which is perhaps the most important part it wasn't just a pump and intraday fade it was a pump
and grind up into the close for all those names which means there's a good chance that theme
holds even into tomorrow i would imagine um and if that's the case then speculation is back and
then you and look at all the indexes today. Every single fucking index was red.
I mean, was there even anything red?
Like gold was red.
Like everything else was green.
The 10-year yield was red, brother.
Huh?
The 10-year yield was red.
Yeah, 10-year yield was red.
Yeah, I mean, today was just like a very very strong day for bolts so we'll see
there's no reason to be pessimistic you know yeah i gotta i gotta consider if i'm gonna swap swap i
mean a couple things that were read today were amazon and meta so i gotta take a second and
think about if uh it's good to have a mega cap in there man don't you know
one thing like i'm not even kind of oh i'm not dropping them i was thinking if i should convert
them to leaps to be honest oh oh okay i was about to defend i was like man no one in there bro no
i'm not i'm not cutting those there's no way good good good yeah i agree i like both those plays but
um yeah convert leaps put some 28 leaps on.
Then you can just set and forget, you know?
And, like, do risk as premium paid.
Put some 28 leaps on.
Set and forget.
It's, like, those companies aren't going anywhere, you know?
Yeah.
But you would layer them on top of the shares.
That's what you would do.
Yeah, that's what I do, yeah.
That's what I do.
I mean, I have the shares already right for amazon so like i don't want to you know buy it you know 200 higher than my cost
basis on shares so just add some leaps what are your what are your thoughts though like i mean
i still struggle to see you know like i the market has been great and we're up three years in a row
now i don't consider apr April as a bear market.
We've been, you know, the bull market started October 22.
So, you know, we're three years into this bull.
It can go a lot longer.
It's futile exercise to try to guess how long it goes.
But, like, I don't even know how I feel about paying to go out to 2028 on these calls.
Like, I feel like 27 might be enough
to be honest yeah i mean yeah you maybe are you like you're you're worried that we're like
at the tail end of the bull market yeah it's hard to know it's hard to know yeah it's hard to know
i don't i don't know either you know most bull markets last three to five years there have been
bull markets have lasted much longer than that i mean mean, we've had golden decades where stocks just go up for a decade.
And maybe AI is the catalyst for that.
I don't know.
I like the idea of January 27th.
I will say, those return numbers
are also a little skewed by the fact
of how much money we printed just before that.
Yeah, of course.
Yeah, we pumped markets.
Yeah, no, of course, of course.
But I'm saying like, you know, crazy things are happening.
I get it.
We're three years in a row.
Crazy things are happening in the world, right?
Like crazy things are happening.
My thought is, you know what I mean?
Did you guys see the video that Bill Ackman shared with the guy with the Google Gemini?
No, I didn't see that.
Doing work on a car?
You didn't see it?
Nope. Go watch it i'm not right now but like go remember later to go watch it but it's just this guy that has like
his phone and i don't know if i hope it wasn't an ai video but maybe it wasn't ai video these
days you don't even know but he was like doing work on a car and, uh, was using like the video.
Um, somebody in my discord chat, if that was an AI video, tell me, so I don't like embarrass
myself by explaining this, but I don't know.
Somebody in my channel, no.
Um, I don't think it was though, but anyway, he shared a video of this guy that's like
working on a car and like has Google Gemini open and it's, it's looking at what he's looking at and he's asking
it what to do and it's telling him and telling him everything he needs. And like, he's asking
what part of the car that is, what does he need to unscrew? Um, I think he was doing like an oil
change and then like lifting the car and doing something else to it. And like he was servicing
a car and like, he was acting like somebody who didn't know how to do it.
And Gemini was like telling him everything that he needed to do and what each part was and what kind of fluid he needed and what the proper pressure was for the attempts to integrate that maybe sooner into working models, into working software that can just be deployed in these environments.
And like your phone on it can already do most of it in theory.
It's just a matter of taking that software and putting it in real world applications. That's the big jump. And so it's like, if that happens in the next two years, you we may be
headed for a golden decade. Like no joke. Not only is there more what not only is there more
innovation right now, but the pace of innovation is increasing as well. There's a bunch of different
stuff. Yeah. But one thing on that we are there's definitely going to be some headline risk here.
I promise you. I don't want this to to happen someone is probably going to get hurt by using this ai stuff they're going to tell what to do on their car it's going to give
them the wrong answer their car is going to break down on the highway they'll find out it was gemini's
fault i bet you that's going to happen i would i wouldn't be surprised if as we're going to this
this in-between period where where is the liability if I ask the chatbot to view something
I do it and then I actively get hurt
now I don't
think that's a concern in the long term but I do
think when we're investing
headlines are important
I think legally you have to view
these as tools
Google can't get in trouble for you
Googling something and
learning how to build a bomb or whatever.
How is Google liable for that?
It's a tool.
That will not be a liability concern.
And if somebody was going to die from a time I was driving, they would have died already.
It's just the honest truth.
They would have died already.
It would have been more than harsh braking, which has been about the the worst complaint and a handful of stalled waymos on streets that
are like causing traffic problems like whoop-de-doo like there have not been any serious make maybe
there's been a fatality that maybe went unreported somehow i don't imagine that that would have
happened i think the news would have probably been all over it but okay sure let's say maybe
somebody died like for the amount of operations and rides they've done,
that's a way better fatality rate than human drivers.
Even if a hundred people had died.
So it's like, you're talking about, I mean, I don't know,
how many rides has Waymo done now?
An insane amount of rides.
An insane amount.
I would love to know the data on what Uber's accident rate is
versus Waymo's accident rate over the same number of rides. I would love to know, actually. I bet you Waymo's
is better. The only data that I think Waymo's given out is they put this tweet out. Nearly
100 miles of data shows that Waymo's are involved in 91% fewer serious injury crashes. Yeah,
Yeah, I don't doubt that at all.
I don't doubt that at all. I don't doubt that at all. And I think it's probably overwhelming.
I don't doubt that at all.
And I think it's probably overwhelming.
In fact, the amount of less accidents and collisions and dangerous situations that those cars get into.
So, yeah, that is the future.
And the question is, does all of this all of this stump stuff come soon or late?
Like me and Jaguar were having this debate yesterday.
That was the whole debate we had.
Jaguar didn't disagree with me that these things are coming.
You're just like, when is it going to come?
I don't know the answer to that, but if it does come soon,
it is going to transform efficiency everywhere.
Imagine every logistics business in the world running autonomy.
Okay. Every logistics business in the world, every large piece of
transporting equipment being run autonomously, every factory being run autonomously. Like what
is the value add of that to the economy? I think it's unimaginable. Like it's literally unimaginable.
I don't think it's quantifiable.
It's trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars of efficiency.
Like, so, yeah, maybe the reason stocks just won't go down for the last three years is in anticipation of this.
And we've had periods like this in market history before where it's just relentless.
I mean, I was funny i was
sharing my performance in the in the screenshot above and i was like look because it shows the
spy comparison on weeble when you do that and i was like showing it over two years and i was like
holy shit a thousand percent and then i was like oh my god but spy's up 45
like in less than two years like spy forget my portfolio like that's a huge move and it's like
that came after a monster year in 23 as well
so this is what i'm saying man it's really tough it's like is it a bubble or yeah is it a bubble
or is it the precipitation of a golden era okay I don't know. Can I tell you?
I think it's a topic that we talked about last time.
And it's like the users of the AI,
forget the people who are like laying down the brick,
like the NVIDIA, the data centers, infrastructure,
you know, the cloud players, forget all the tech companies.
The question like that, the only question that will matter,
that will propel everything higher is if every other stock in the S&P really begins to implement AI and finding
like efficiencies in it.
And then the earnings numbers for the S&P are way too low because everyone starts contributing.
I think that's probably a part of the story that is not really being reflected in any
sort of earnings revisions because we haven't really seen earnings pick up in any of these other companies
yeah yeah it's i mean i think there are points in the cycle where earnings begin to matter more
and there's points in the cycle where they matter less and in the early stages of this cycle i
didn't really care about the fundamental valuations. I was looking for the best stocks within the best sectors that were going to be leaders.
That's what I was looking for.
And now I'm looking for reasonably priced stocks that are going to benefit from the growth of the sector.
So I'm looking for a different thing because I think we're in a different part of the bull cycle.
But I don't think we're out of the bull market yet.
Clearly, the market's telling you we're not.
But I'm just rotating exposure as opposed to getting out of the market.
I mean, I'm never out of the market.
I'm one of those people that believe you should always be long for your entire life.
Genuinely.
As long as you have the stomach to sit through market crashes, which most people don't.
Wow, Bitcoin looking so good curling up here right now.
God damn it.
It does that at this time every night, by the way. I know, but it looks so nice coming off at 21. It does that at this time every night, by the way.
I know, but it looks so nice coming off at 21.
It does.
It wants to suck you in every time.
Because nighttime, the DJs, the market closes.
They go get some dinner, and then they come back and they trade Bitcoin.
Real quick, I was just looking at this, dude.
Stock talk.
Take a look at the candle on October 26th Sunday
It did the same thing
It is the same exact
It just looks super clean. I know but it looks so clean then too and you were closer to the 50 day then
It's just like you're still well below it and at that point like you
can literally see the wick below on october 20 october 17 you see that wick below and then you
see it rises and then you see it drops it makes a new higher low and then it pushes up above the 21
ema just like you are doing right it's like literally copy paste same same thing i mean
maybe this time will be different but this this kind of volatility is just so frustrating and yeah go look left too
last november december all the weekly structure there your point of control up here is still
above our head it's around 96 96 and change it's like the whole point of control up there
you broke that you haven't back-tested
the trend. I mean, it's got room to move
You know what chart looks sick?
This is one of my portfolio names, but it's a smaller position.
I think I might upsize this.
It's Digital Ocean.
Look at the Digital Ocean chart.
Look at the daily today, the candle.
That chart looks really nice, bro.
It looks so nice, dude dude i keep looking at it
like that thing's probably going to 60 bucks easily i have this box drawn that it needs to
stay over 45 i feel like such an idiot i was long that one dude i was long that at 27 and i think i
sold it at like 39 or something and now dude i've been long it like so many times and it's
burned me like half the times.
And then like the recent one, it was great because I got along before the earnings and then we got the gap up.
But I mean, dude, the way this is just kissing off the 9 and 21 today.
And then like look at this perfect structure. So it comes into the earnings at like 38, right?
Below the 9 and 21.
Then gaps up on, I think this is an hve on the daily
what is this it's close to an hve okay it's not an hve but it's like one of the highest volume bars
ever and gaps up on that on earnings goes all the way to the 50s and then basically no signs
of distribution just extremely low volume curls all the way back down
and is consolidating above the previous local range.
You know, defending this 42 spot.
No, it's really nice.
It's just textbook.
To me, it looks textbook on the daily.
You know, Stock Talk, you know what you should do?
Have you ever put the 30 EMA on your chart?
Somebody told me to do that.
No, no.
Bro, I've been using the same
emas for like 10 years but if you if you do the 30 you'll see that you know how like it's been
kind of having these moves just below the 21 and then it wicks above like you know what i'm saying
like there's three different wicks where it was actually just like below the 21 ema so you might
have gotten why not add the 5 3 10 7 you know like
30 the 65 yeah because then you're just adding you have to just pick your moving averages you
have to i guess you can't do 5 10 if you put the 30 on this one though i i hear you but if you put
the 30 on this one specifically it's like insane how much it respects it i'll save my 233 for it's
like insane how it's touched the 30 my secret one i'm serious usually to me like on the weekly is
where i'll find the most respect for any chart so that's if i'm really trying to track trend i just
look to the weekly like for me digital ocean you look at the weekly nine right like this thing's
just written the weekly nine up um and man look at that cluster
of support too on the week yeah what i like is like on the daily for example you have you can
see every one of these candle body closures or openings right at that 45 area and if you go back
to like the ipo day that is that level 45, like 0.15, 0.16 right there.
And then you've got the upper wicks into that.
And then now you're closing a candle body back up into it.
And you never let go, like, even though it was under the 21 a few times, it never let go of it.
So like, that's the other way I look at like EMAs or SMAs.
Like if you see, it's like, yeah, it's, it's like touching it, but if it can't push away
from it, then somebody's trying to hold it there. Yeah, exactly. There's, there's a defender,
right? There's a bidder there. Then that's important to recognize. Like a lot of the
reason I talk about, I try to talk about both the fundamental side to you guys and the thematic side
and the technical side, because I'm trying to convince those of you who are camped in these schools of thoughts that all
of this is useful. And when we're talking about price in this way, what we're trying to say is
what is price communicating to you? When I was talking about this daily structure,
quote unquote, what I was referring to was, look, it's significant that the stock is defending 42.
What I was referring to was, look, it's significant that the stock is defending 42.
Why?
Because that was the local resistance before the earnings.
Right?
Why is that significant?
Because that tells you now, post-earnings, the buyers, the participants in this stock
who are unwilling to buy above 42 are now willing to defend 42.
That's a classic flip of resistance to support, right?
If you were to draw a line on
DigitalOcean, if you were to pull up the daily chart, for those of you that are, I don't know,
some of you are on your computers or your phones, you can do it on your phone too. Draw a line to
the 42, you'd roughly see how now it is flipped from resistance to support from prior to the
earnings. Now, that's what you like to see, post-earnings gap up. A gap up, a pull back into the moving averages on low volume,
and then consolidation above the pre-earnings local highs. That's simple daily structure out
of a textbook. Then you flip to the weekly and you ask yourself, okay, what's happening? Well,
weekly defense of the 9 EMA, which is defended for the last what? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8,
What? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 weeks.
Yeah. Or 16, 17.
17 weeks. Yeah.
I was going to let you count though.
Well, I know I was zooming. I had to zoom out.
But yeah, so whatever for 17 weeks, it's depending on that spot. So you know, hey, that's a pretty reliable area of support on this newfound uptrend, right? Because why would you classify this as an uptrend? Well, the stock bottomed back in August, right? Then it captured the 921 EMAs on the weekly. And then what happened? It started uptrending with full respect to the nine-week EMA. Not even any tests of the 21-week. That's strength, right? And so stock comes up
here and you say, okay, weekly structure is intact. Where would an ideal buy here be? Yeah,
an ideal buy would be closer to this 37 to 39 area if you wanted to be really, really value-driven.
The problem is you had new information injected to the stock
recently and you had high volume buyers. So barring a significant market pullback,
I think it's unlikely this 42 spot is forfeited. You've seen bears attempt to bring this down and
look at the closes on those candles, right? They closed the highs, all those tests, right? The
test that 4201 went and closed the high. So you want to look at the overall
structure, what the price is telling you. And this one to me says it's going higher. So I don't know,
I might upsize this one, but breaks out of this big base. You know, if you zoom out on the monthly,
you see this big base, you see the first time ever the stock has posted four consecutive months of
green buying volume, right? And that too high volume, right? It's set in HVE three
months ago on the monthly, right? You want to take a little bit more of a deeper perspective,
you can flip to the quarterly. And on the quarterly, it looks really explosive, right?
You look at those two quarterly bars in a row, HVE on the quarterly, followed up by another
really, really good buying month on the quarterly. And you can see the stocks getting thinner,
right? Which is a
sign of accumulation because what happened on that first HB stock from 27 to 35, this second big
volume candle that you're getting this quarter, what's happened? The stock's gone from 32 and a
half to 45, much, much bigger move on relatively less volume, signs of accumulation. And now you're
coming into this 46 spot, you break above 47, What's going to happen? You're going to get a test of 52, 54, 52 to 54 band right there. You break out of there.
Boom. You're off to the races. So you want to be able to read structure and ask yourself the right
questions about a stock the same way. Like earlier when I was going through like the things you
should be studying fundamentally, you should be asking yourself questions repeatedly. That's how you get smart
and learn things, is you ask yourself, why? Why? Why is that stock defending that spot post earnings?
What does that indicate to me about price? What are the shareholders telling me of that stock?
Through the chart, you can deduct these things. It's actually the only place where you can make
those deductions about what the shareholder
base is telling you. And it's important what a shareholder base is telling you, especially when
you're in a highly institutional owned stock, which a lot of stocks are, even the ones you
wouldn't expect are 70, 80% institutionally owned. And so if institutions are communicating
some of you about price, that'd be an issue. Like, as a matter of fact, if DigitalOcean had
not defended that 42 spot,
I would probably cut the calls that I have,
but because during the volatility,
it continually defended that spot.
I held them and now they're back to being up a hundred percent.
Sock,
so what is your,
what is your fundamental thesis on this one?
I just think it's too cheap.
Just think it's flat out too cheap,
but I agree with you. It's it's like what like 15 times even
enough yeah it's just insane to me like it doesn't make any sense well what's the growth like though
isn't it like teens growth yeah i mean let me pull up my notes on this i mean this is like a month
over a month ago that i opened this but i mean trading at a trailing 21 P growing TTM rev 15%,
growing EPS, 16% TTM revenue is a straight tower climb up.
EPS looks like it's plateauing at the highs near this 50 to 60 cents range
potential for expansion to 75 next year.
I'm just reading off my notes here.
So yeah, that's what I had.
I didn't have a crazy amount of thesis i thought the chart
was insane when i opened it in the 30s i mean i opened at like 35 got the 37 and a half calls
february um but i'm still in it because i think the chart still looks good but i thought the
looked insane back then i mean software sector what either one of you know what they do their cloud compute flight
But I don't know the business that well for me, this is purely a technical play
Logically, you know the business pretty well
Yeah, I mean i've looked into it a decent amount but they have like different segments of the business and that's what I don't understand
I know like their machine learning segment was growing like 100 year over
year a couple quarters ago and became more than like 10 of the business they have like a okay so
here's the thing like they they are a cloud computing play from what i understood they were
like uh basically the cloud that where they like they were the cloud provider cloud service provider
for like small and medium businesses when i was studying it that's what i understood um but then they have
like this whole gpu rental business i think that's kind of like a nebbi is i don't know
i get a little lost on that part of it that's why like the story is a little bit like it's not so
much like a super pure play like kind of company i feel like there's like multiple segments
to it but i need to revisit yeah i mean i i haven't deep dived the business enough to give
like a full like you know it's a it's a very small position for me and it's more of a technical and
just the fact the stock is very very cheap um but yeah i mean they're mean, they're cloud infrastructure play and they're sort of quote unquote, I guess, differentiating.
Here, let me read it.
The fact that you, like you mentioned, that they focus on smaller customers and aren't competing with like the big cloud computing guys.
So yeah, I mean, to me, it's just a stock where the chart is insane and the evaluation is
cheap and it feels like in this environment that's a good thing to do
and plus software is so neglected here you know and so I just wanted to like
real quick so I was just reading there about digital ocean on their press
release it's basically what I was saying it you know they have over 640,000
customers so to me that means small and medium businesses
to deliver cloud AI, ML infrastructure.
They need to build and scale the organizations.
So it's like a comprehensive agentic cloud, whatever.
They're enabling AI for small and medium businesses.
That's what they're doing.
So like if, I don't know if AWS is focusing on large enterprises, if, you know, Azure is focusing on, you know, maybe more government side contracts, like these guys are just picking up the scraps of like the small and medium business segment, I'd imagine, which is probably a huge market on its own and makes a ton of sense because small and medium businesses through the AI workloads that are now enabling them to like create apps on the fly. Like if anything, it
makes their business boom a lot more like AI is feeding their business even more and their business
is AI. So that's interesting. Um, look, it, it makes sense. Chart looks good. Stock is pretty
cheap. The fundamentals are inflectinging the stock probably goes to 60 bucks
at a minimum i should probably buy some um talking about it um i don't know i yeah i have to think
on it a little bit more because i don't know it and well enough but like dude what's there to know
just buy the damn stock yeah i mean i already have it sometimes it's that simple where the
chart is just that compelling to me and the valuation is compelling enough to where I'm like, okay, I don't really need to know everything about it. And, you know, that's rare. But this was one of those where I just felt that way. And I've been just watching how it's been acting these last couple weeks. And like, it's just been having these ideal closes over and over again. And like, on days where a bunch of peers have been super weak, it's been like going red to green over and over again and like on days where a bunch of peers have been super weak it's
been like going red to green over and over again and it's just no yeah acting that way the buying
is there for sure yeah like somebody's supporting it somebody's i mean i think it was like two
quarters ago it was trading at 27 before its earnings and it went up 30 percent like i really
got me bulled up on it like and i mean i don't want to say i don't know the business because I know the business like the basics of it but what really got
me bulled up on it was the B of A double upgrade after their earnings um that I read and I mean
this is after I had bought the stock already um when did I open the first these calls let me see
so I opened this back in yeah this was back in september wow so i've held this for a while
um because i opened these back in september um but b of a after the earnings which was in november
they double upgraded it and they just said basically what my first answer was to you which
is that the stock's way too cheap they said preliminary revenue guide for 2026 is now
approaching 20 growth growth. The company
has improved visibility and conviction in their demand, signing multiple eight-figure deals.
They're expanding capacity rapidly, which will support growth into 2026, 2027.
Operating leverage should drive strong EBITDA growth. Free classroom margins in the mid to
high teens are better than almost all peers, and they're ramping infrastructure capacity.
They have sustained growth from high usage customer cohorts that are driving ARR acceleration, which has been clearly visible for the prior three quarters.
We believe the stock is extremely undervalued, trading at just 8x forward PE.
That was the B of A double upgrade from November 6th.
And I think B of A is the best shop on the street.
They had this stock at a sell rating prior to november's earnings bfa had it at a sell rating with a 34 price target
after november 6th earnings which were less than a month ago they double upgraded it raised the
price target from 34 to 60 and raised the rating from sell to buy, which is very unusual for Bank of America.
So when that happened, I was like, damn, I should upsize it. But the stock had already gapped up.
So I was like, I'm not going to buy it up on the gap up, but I've been looking at it. So yeah,
this may be one that I upsize tomorrow or into the end of the week. Um, just add some more exposure
to it. Cause it's like a little over 3% waiting right now. I'd want it to be a little higher than
that, but yeah, I, their last quarter was excellent um and maybe even business
changing but we'll see uh i see sam what was their what was their price target on that 60 yeah 60
that's what i said makes sense yeah that's what the chart shows yeah this is probably where it's
going they often put their price targets on like visible highs where they can see it headed.
But in a real upside scenario, I think the stock could reprice to the 80s, frankly, in a real upside scenario.
I mean, it's only one or two earnings gap-ups away from that 60 target already.
If they have another good quarter um in q under next year then
you know it could really take off um when do those calls expire i was expiring on the 20th
oh so oh i won't even cover the next earnings that's shit yeah i do need to get some more
exposure on this but you're not just in calls right you're sure no I have shares
too but I need to get more exposure why don't you just I mean what's that the
IVs probably up now so why not just exercise it yeah the February's I might
but I won't exercise them early no but you don't need you're not yeah but
that's what I'm saying you'll have more exposure if you exercise the calls. I'm just going to see what the IV is.
IV is not bad.
It's like 60%.
It's not bad at all.
I'd rather do that than dedicate capital to like a technical play.
But let me see.
Yeah, exactly.
Sorry, just real quick comment on like our crypto talk the
other day like from earlier i'd probably wait to see like two or three consecutive closes
over the 21 ema if you get that i'd probably be getting way more aggressive and taking i'm gonna
wait i have way too many trust issues of like this poke your head over and fall down. I'm
probably going to wait a couple days to see if it
can confirm.
Yeah.
Yeah. I mean, we'll
see. Yeah, it just looks nice curling
over this 21.
Really nice, but we'll see.
I don't have any
exposure to this.
While you're talking about it, the stock went up like 1% while you were talking about it
What? Digital Ocean?
People in here are such
DGens
These DGens
When he was talking about Amcor
actually no, when Amit was bringing up
Amcor, obviously from the
Stock Talk pitch
I honestly have to restrain myself from talking about stocks
that i like sometimes like on these things because like people start buying them and then i'm like
okay dude i wanted to buy it but anyway what were you saying
be fair that one this name is so illiquid and after Hours. Yeah, I know. I don't know. The volume is 100.
You should be buying shit in After Hours when it's illiquid.
But anyway.
It's like 460 bucks right there.
But what Amir was talking about.
It was 4,600 bucks, dude.
4,600.
Yeah, sorry.
When Amir brought up Ancora, that thing was going up like 3% After Hours.
It was when he said he was going to buy it.
It was just funny as hell.
Well, I'm glad he got it because
it's a lot higher now.
Dude, that post earnings
drop was pretty wild.
That was... And that reversed
quickly.
I just put in my chat, I was like...
I remember the day it dropped post earnings.
I put in my chat, I was like, I'm not selling any. People literally
don't understand the story.
It's not about gross margins.
It is about volume expansion.
And eventually people figure that out.
That day I bought like a hundred K worth of calls on Amcor.
And I made a great profit in like a day or two.
I ended up converting a lot of it into shares.
Cause I just thought that move, like once it got to like 35 or something, 37 in like a day or two i ended up converting a lot of it into shares because i just thought that move
like once it got to like 35 or something 37 in like two days i was like okay like that was pretty
quick i think that's good and then i swapped it to shares but then now i'm just like crazy move
yeah crazy move dude am i like i have 25 calls for march that are up 516% as of today's close.
I have 30 calls for June that are up 500% as of today's close.
I have 31.5% for Gen 2027 that are up 270% as of today's close.
I have huge positions in all of those.
So it's literally carrying my portfolio.
Yeah, man.
8% on Amcor and you're levered on it like it's crazy but back to
back eight percent days yeah today and yesterday yeah nuts i mean what the hell is that 2x volume
today too on the plus eight percent it's 17 of my portfolio now that's insane dude this is not mom
and pop's buying either that's the crazy thing yeah it's it's yeah it's 17 of my of a very big retail portfolio in like most of my net worth so
um yeah it's it's a big position is an understatement that and ens are huge positions
for me ens and amcor alone make up 33 of my whole portfolio it's kind of crazy well
never let us know when you decide to close all of it at once. I don't want to close either.
I have no desire to sell either of those.
It's a problem that I have.
I actually want more ENS, and it just won't go down.
Today, this morning, it was starting to dip,
and I was like, oh, maybe I'll start getting a pullback on this thing.
it was dipped like 0.7% and then went green i was like dude just will never go red i actually
It was dipped like 0.7%, and then went green.
I was like, dude, it just will never go red.
bought ens i think it was the day before earnings and a little bit the morning after because it just
had a muted reaction but the market was doing really bad that day so it was a pretty good
opportunity it's just such a misunderstood stock like i'm not surprised it has had like i mean
what's a weekly chart on that thing the thing has had like oh my god just like 20
green weeks in a robos house for this one week in october one two three four five six seven eight
it's like at an 80 degree angle here
so 17 out of 18 weeks green for enns that's insane it's funny because somebody in my group was like oh
like why does this stock never rip like five or six percent i'm like dude it goes up two percent
every day dude like what do you want some people want like they're not satisfied if it's like
super high beta like has a 15 day i'm like dude since we bought it ens is up like almost every day i bought a 112 it's just like up up up up up up up
up up up up it's just like ridiculous so i love the stock but i want more and i'm i already have
so much size and i still want more which makes me think hey my conviction is probably in the
right place same thing with vav like that won't break below anything either it did
for a second it broke below 21 ema and then just instantly rebound back to 18 bucks and then now
like hovering back above the nine kiss the 21 this morning pop right back above the nine so that one
won't come down either so the stuff i want to add more of which is already my biggest positions
which is funny it's funny how those are the ones i want to add more to the other one i want to add more to is oss which is my small cap but that one just won't come back
down either i was hoping it would come back down and kiss the hundred day but it's just
consolidating high and tight it makes me feel like it's about a rip again
uh i don't know well i like i don't know how big your portfolio is but that's 150 dollar market
150 million dollar market cap you might be moving the stock if you buy that just guessing no yeah i
mean 100 i mean i i can't fill it without probably moving it a little bit i mean i won't be able to
fill even enough size but i already have a good amount of size it's like 5.3 5.4 something like
that in my portfolio it's like the biggest position for a small cap I think I've ever had.
But I love that chart too.
I mean, look at that little rhythm consolidation.
You zoom out five years on that thing.
Oh, it looks so good.
I don't know.
I love all my stocks, so that's the problem i'm having i don't
even know if i should be adding new stuff rather than just upsizing my existing stuff that's what
i've been doing dude i've actually been exactly doing that what i've been doing is i like i think
i told you the other day i was adding a bunch of names and seeing whichever ones can bounce
whichever could not bounce i just cut those and i added exposed. I added that same exposure back to my
Own positions the ones that are doing well, so I'm rewarding the winners and cutting
Yeah, I needed I need to I think just like add to some stuff that like I already like
It's still good then there's no reason not to
Yeah, I've been adding a lot. I've been averaging up a lot
to be honest.
I'd rather do that. Like, what am I going to do?
Buy these things that look like crap?
There's no point.
You're like trying to make a trade
when you already have the trade in your portfolio.
I am getting a bit more
concentrated though, I will admit.
Which, I don't know.
Like, I'm down to 17 holdings now.
I think you said, what, you're at 14?
So around the same.
But I'd gotten it up to, like, 23 the other day.
Alright.
We're at a pretty good spot then.
Yeah, we can wrap it up Yeah, we've been going well over
We'll see you guys tomorrow
I had a great chat today
What are you working out at the gym today?
I'm going to go do back
Actually
Yeah, yeah, I'm going to do back
What do you do if someone asks you about a stock at the gym?
Uh I don't know, people Not that many people recognize me because I haven't done that much video content What do you do if someone asks you about a stock at the gym?
I don't know.
Not that many people recognize me because I haven't done that much video content,
but I have been recognized a few times from the stuff I've done.
But no, nobody asks me about stocks.
Nobody knows what I do unless they happen to me. It's a pretty exclusive gym, too, if we're being honest.
Yeah, I guess that's true.
What are you doing?
You working out?
There is a gym in this building.
No, we're getting ready to go to something.
I am finally at the Airbnb.
Settled in.
Yeah, I was...
Yesterday messed me up.
I was up at like 1 a.m.
Yeah, just hanging out. I was yesterday. It messed me up. I was up at like 1 a.m. Yeah.
No, just hanging out.
Getting ready for a full night in front of me, unfortunately.
There you go.
Well, I'll be on a plane tomorrow.
I appreciate everyone, though.
You should make sure you are following the speakers.
Great people.
Appreciate them.
Absolutely.
And this host account as well.
Live market talk for at least two hours, sometimes three, sometimes four.
You never know.
One time we went like nine.
Great stuff here.
Monday through Thursday.
Stocks on Spaces.
That was Sam Logical hanging out with us.
Two co-hosts up here.
And, of course, you see
that Wolf account. There's a full schedule over there
for all of the Wolf spaces.
And of course, we put out our daily
schedule here with all the different people. I see Wall
Street Engine down there. Appreciate you hanging
out with us as well. A lot of familiar faces
in the audience hanging out with us on this
beautiful Wednesday evening.
Hope everyone's well. We'll see you guys tomorrow
afternoon.
Don't forget
to tune in to the
new show tomorrow, an hour
before Stocks and Spaces.
YouTube, Twitter.
Let's go!
Let's go!
Appreciate y'all.
Peace.
Later. Býs. Þærri.
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