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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: June 23, 2025 Duration: 2:02:09Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the latest trends in the market, highlighting the resilience of tech stocks like NVIDIA and the potential for growth in projects like Dash. The conversation also touched on the impact of geopolitical events on market sentiment, with a focus on the importance of strategic partnerships and funding opportunities in driving innovation and adoption.
Full Transcription
Thank you. you well if i can get unmuted what's up everyone welcome man happy monday happy green that i
see all over my screen now after a little a little bit of a ride there midday um but a lot
of things moving up a couple things not google and oil uh not doing too well him's not doing
too well today but across the board other things doing very well tesla's not doing too well today, but across the board, other things doing very well.
Tesla at 9%.
I see CrowdStrike is up almost 3%.
Meta up a couple percent.
Microsoft just, this thing will never slow down.
I don't think at this point.
Now that I say that, that's the top of Microsoft.
Sorry, Options Mike.
I know you're probably long that,
and I just ruined it for everyone.
But either way, welcome in everyone.
Hope everyone's having a great Monday interesting day in the market I'm excited to hear what everyone's been watching trading doing how they're reacting to the different news and things going on
in the market we'll dive fully into it Scott great to have my man Red Dog up here with us every
Monday how are you, sir?
I'm doing great.
How's everybody doing out there?
Happy Monday.
Happy Monday.
Well, depending on, I guess, where you are, it's happy Monday or not.
You know, some people like to be long, some people like to be short.
I tend to like to be long, and, you know, I did bring a little risk down last
week.
I think we spoke about it.
Um, you know, the spies were playing with the eight day, broke the eight day.
Um, it did hold the 21 day on, on Friday.
You know, some things look more vulnerable than others.
You know, we always talk a little bit here and how it's more of a, it's a, you know,
stock specific tape.
It's not always where
everything's going so you have to do some homework um i think what was interesting today so um when
that dip happened you know midday when the when the strikes happened they got two texts from
people saying you know this they're they're actually firing missiles at empty u.s bases
so basically what they did is they were firing missiles to to save face and that that might be it
And I think the market kind of knows it which is why we're up, you know four almost five points in the spies
They didn't get intercepted. There was nothing there. They like kind of set that up
We've seen that before but that's between you and I and everyone else here. But anyway
Interesting stuff either which way, which way, I'm going
to say, even though we're not political, I'm glad what happened Saturday night happened.
I think if we set that whole program back 10, 20, 30 years, we've been talking about doing it for
10 years. We finally did it and it was very successful. And here we are back to the markets
with the new week. And like you said, I'm hoping Tesla is a day one, a nice strong day one on volume.
I think it is.
You know, it ignited above 335.
That was my spot to add to it or get pretty involved, which I did.
I'd hate to see it roll over this last hour.
Sometimes it plays with people, but we'll see.
The VWAP is 343.48 and a quarter.
I'd like to see that hold around there.
You know, definitely it's mixed.
It's not so easy out there.
On Friday, Meta looked like it was ready to lose its upper area,
and today it bounced back well, so that's good to see it staying in the game.
I think Amazon's fine.
You know, it's kind of trying to hold in there today. It also lost a little bit of its upper momentum last week.
I know I've been kind of knocking my head against the wall with Nvidia. Nvidia has been a pain,
hasn't really been able to get volume and follow through. At first, it looked like...
You and me both, Scott, on Nvidia,IA, that thing just will not break $145.
Yeah, I don't know.
I guess it's a source of funds.
That's what we say.
Like the ones that are the most widely owned
feels like they need funds for other things
for some of the spec names.
I don't know.
Or they're waiting to use NVIDIA as a vehicle
to get the market back to highs whenever that is.
All I know is I lost some money the last week or so, playing some options.
I'm not really playing the stock as much because I feel like I keep adding to it on strength
and it doesn't go anywhere.
So for today, I just bought the 147 calls for this Friday and for July 3rd.
So this way, I don't really have to trade the stock because I don't want to lose money
buying and selling it and
then they're not going anywhere. And, you know, and then all of a sudden it's up four and a half,
five dollars in a day and you're too tired to play it. So that's how I did NVIDIA, you know,
for this week. The 147s for this Friday and next Friday. Dash, I hope, is there anybody on here
playing Dash? I think when I started kind of hosting this with you guys,
I've been talking about Dash being like my number one play for this year,
and here it is at 229, up 4%. I think we were talking about this in the 150s, 160s, and this too.
You know, if you go out a month and buy options higher,
it was definitely a really good way to play it.
Besides, you know, being in the name i'm still in the name i sold
some today the weekly chart if you look at the weekly charted dash which is really exciting
that's that cup and handle pattern which kind of kept me in this thing because in the daily it was
a grind um so there's yeah there's still there's still things to do names that are coming on the
radar setups that aren't that predatory that are that are working a little bit. But you have to definitely
be on your toes. Whereas, you know, when you have the headline-driven geopolitical type of things,
which we've been seeing, you know, you do get some air pockets, like we saw midday,
you know, that happened a lot, which at least we're used to it. The tariffs were the first
part of the year, you know, tariffs on tariffs off.
You know, usually you'd see a three point move in the spies.
Like, what was it?
Must have been something tariff.
Now it's something I ran.
I bet you start going back to tariffs, you know, soon because this might, you know, and let's say end soon.
But I would think that it might die down if this was what, you know, Iran did to save a little bit of face, which really isn't.
But anyway, let's hope that's the case.
And yeah, and lastly, the spies are back above the 8-day.
So sometimes everyone's like, red dog, you use that 8-day,
but what happens if you sell it when it goes below the 8-day?
What happens when it goes back above the 8-day?
I'm like, well, if it goes back above it and stocks are acting okay,
you can buy and sell stocks and get back involved and have different points of reference
usually you know if you get below an area and it stays below you know and then it rolls down you
know it's good to have risks down it didn't happen we were below the eighth day for two days and we
held the 21 day and the 21 day has been the trend since April 22nd so to make a long story short you don't have
to be all in or all out there's definitely some things that are that are still you know working
and you just have to kind of pick and choose which which it is for which week because it's
changes like Google's really weak today so if you were in Google you're unhappy if you're in
Meta you're okay I I hate to see things like kim's happen just because
if you look at that chart that chart looked really pretty you know there was no clues that that was
going to happen sometimes a stock acts a little faulty before news like that happens because
somebody knows and it gives you a little clues there really were no clues that today was going
to happen i'm not in it but i know a lot of guys got hurt in something like kim's so if you got
hurt in that you didn't do anything wrong.
The chart looked good.
It was hard to see this coming today.
But now you just have to figure out, you know, do you want to move on
and then just, you know, let it rebuild and find something easier to play or not.
I guess that's the job as a trader.
So one of the interesting things I was watching, the 20-day moving average on both QQQ and
SPY, we came down to it on Friday, and it's the first time we've touched it since late
April, basically two months of time here.
You have to think that some people, just from a simplistic standpoint, were looking at that
going, hey, the 20- day catches up at bull market.
I'll, I'll buy it.
Yeah.
It held.
Listen, when sometimes what happens is like people like red dog, why do you get out when,
you know, when it breaks the eight, they have a lot of things on mic.
So you could test the 20 day and not go underwater.
And at the 10 and 20 day doesn't hold, then you could test the 50 day.
If the 50 day doesn't hold, you could test it instead day if the 50 day doesn't hold you could test instead of just going you know underwater and holding your nose if you're very active you
could buy and sell things so yeah if you sold the eight day you know the 21 day saying hey it hasn't
first kiss of the 21 day should hold we haven't broken it since early april then you know you
could have reduced a little higher and added a little bit lower. And then at the 21 day, different things were acting better than others.
So you could have adjusted some names.
So that makes sense.
Like late last week, really, you know, it was all about CRCL.
It was about Coinbase.
And, you know, those were the names that were going, you know.
It's not really so much.
Today's more about Tesla.
Hopefully Meta's getting better.
It seems like Apple got a tiny bit better on Friday.
It's still not acting great, you know, short term, but it's fine.
But yeah, when levels break, you have to see commitment to those broken levels.
So if somebody said, hey, we broke the eighth day last week.
I'm shorting every rally.
And all of a sudden today we close like this, I think you have to be more neutral to positive
because the sellers didn't reject price there again. They'd actually reclaimed it. So that
means that we were a little weaker, but those sellers don't have power to keep it below so
you could readjust and find names and keep going. What is your take around Google? When you see, obviously,
there's some narrative things going on over there, but when you see the market rally like this and
Google not really participate at all, I mean, when you look at Amazon's breakeven, we know Jeff
is selling a lot over there, or at least we're waiting on filings for the selling. But I'll tell you that, Google's what
sticks out to me. And obviously, it's the news is part of it, the sentiments part of it. But when
you see the relative weakness here, is that alarm bells? Or are you saying, okay, there's a catch up
play? Well, Google has been kind of odd for the last six months, it's never really leading the
tape. It's usually either lag or catch-up when the market's not doing
anything it hasn't been so great to be honest you know if you look at the chart
you'll see on 618 when it broke below 173 kind of broke its rising trend line
so that was the spot to get out so technically it just got a weaker you
know and and it wasn't able to repair fast so now I don't know you know and and it wasn't able to repair fast so now um i don't know you know actively i'm not in
it um this is the type of name where you almost have to buy it when it looks bad and sell it when
it looks good that's why a lot of traders don't like it it's more of an institutional name that
just over time will probably work but as traders you can't just say i'm going to accumulate
something over time because it probably will work because we have to time things.
So now you have a new point of reference, 162.
That's the low of the week.
And, you know, maybe tomorrow if we open lower and it's the first to go green,
gives you a first little signal you could buy it versus up a level.
So that could be now 162.
And then you see how a trade's moving forward.
But it's not leading.
It's not holding the tape back.
You can't start shorting
other names because google is so weak it's kind of just in its own little world for now
for a long time i always referred to apple as kind of detached kind of doing its own thing but
it seems like google's kind of taking over that role or maybe they're sharing the role at this
point good point sir anything else uh scott did you want to hit on here off the top before we start going around the panel?
I'd say, you know, I don't know if it's the case,
but I think that the CRCL, I, a little bit higher. I bought some puts.
I kind of feel like today's high of two 98, you know,
could be a little bit of a short term. I'm not calling the top,
but I'm just saying, I know there's been a lot of stress around it.
Some people got caught short last week.
I'm usually pretty good catching these type of trades.
I would like to see it close below 250, but I don't know if that's going to happen.
If it closed below 250, today it turns into like a topping tail doji.
I could see it trading 205, 210, but it's still kind of resilient holding here.
You know, you look at that chart, though, there was some really nice moves there.
People are like, oh, it's too crazy.
But if you look at CRCL and you look at the, you know, the way it traded above 165,
you know, that was a key spot.
And then you had a really nice move that day, had a nice follow through.
If you're not trading that kind of stuff you have to you have to as an
active trader because you know we're in the moving business not the storage business you know if
anything you got to get comfortable you saw a crwv a lot of traders made their year on that thing
because it also moved really well when it got into big areas so you know as the year develops and we
get some more new issues you got to start getting comfortable when they come and track them and put them on your go-to list because those are the ones, you know, that would have made you money in the past two weeks.
Not Apple, you know, not Amazon, not Google.
So, you know, got to do your whole life.
I know Logical does like a lot of work on individual names and whatnot.
You know, he doesn't just go with the, you know, the names you know type of thing, which do work a lot of the times.
But you find these other names and they start acting well and you catch them.
That's what I did with Dash, to be honest.
I never traded DoorDash before.
And about a year ago on August 8th, you look at the candle on August 8th, that was the day we bought them.
And that was the day Dash had this major wide range igniting bar. And that put that on the map for me. And then I did a lot of
fundamental work on it, on how it's misunderstood. It's not just a food delivery company. And a lot
of institutions started to like it. And I stuck with that pretty much for the whole year, trading
around the roadmap of the tech goals and made a lot of money for me and a lot of money for the alpha team but it was a name that the year before I never traded it once so new names happen
and if they wind up becoming great names you could be there before everyone else like I think I sort
of note that Kathy Kathy would start buying this thing at 215 I'm like 215 that was like two weeks
ago you know in her funds but anyway so if you if
you get if you do your homework and you find something early you know and you could trade
technicals and you could see and feel and learn how it moves you know so it's kind of like you
know you get to know it so you're you can get the clues on whether it's showing you you could add to
it if it's acting worse or better or whatnot and And you can make a lot of money, and it can make your quarter and your year by doing that kind of work.
I was going to toss over to Logical.
Looks like he got disconnected here.
Options Mike, let me bring you in and see.
Please tell me today you traded Tesla.
I'm just taking a wild stab.
I had three option trades on Tesla.
I had a very nice day on that.
It was on my radar out of the gate because it was, first of all, in the market this morning, it was green, right?
And we knew it had, there was no reported incidents from their tests that started yesterday in Austin.
I figured that's good.
And I figured that could get it going. And I said, well, we can get up to 346 or 350 area,
put as resistances. We got all the way up to 356 area. So we had a real nice move on that. And it's,
as Scott said, it's kind of digesting here. This name is not the easiest to bleep, right? It,
you know, it likes to dip and then come running back after hours. I'm out of it for now. But that
was just a beautiful move on Tesla. And,
you know, one thing I've been saying here is that, you know, when the bombs start flying,
typically that's the, you know, the worst comes in at that point. And then we rally and,
you know, it feels like the market and it wants to look past the Middle East. And it feels like
Iran wants to be done with this. If you look at the SPY, not only is it above the 8-day, there's a little downtrend.
If you took the last four candles, you had a little downtrend there.
We're breaking above it and holding above it here right now into the close.
That's very bullish to me.
If we can do that little cup and handle type pattern there, a very small one.
What else did I get?
I came along a couple of calls on AMD, which were heavy red.
I added to them aggressively this morning, made nice money,
got out and kept two at a lower price.
So that worked out nice.
I actually shorted crude today on that news as it came out on the futures
because I'm like, yeah, look what crude is doing.
Crude is dropping.
It's not spiking.
So, you know, it's just lots of little things to do today.
The market, you know, to me, nothing's changed.
It remains strong.
Microsoft, yet another new all-time high.
I think Scott said Meta came screaming back.
Walmart's having a big day out of nowhere.
The financials remain strong.
The financials are highs of the day.
You know, NVIDIA, I'm still long calls and heavily underwater,
and that name is just, I mean, I don't know what to say.
It's frustrating the hell out of me.
I did get called away on my AMD stock on Friday after the close.
I had cover calls on it from earnings, so I expected that to happen.
And overall, I mean, everything's kind of holding it okay.
I mean, the market needs a catalyst.
And, you know, earnings season is about two weeks away.
You know, two weeks we start
and maybe we're going to wait until then.
I think Scott's right.
I think tariffs are going to become
a conversation again
because that deadline is rapidly approaching
and are they going to extend
and know what they can do.
And I think the market would like it settled
because then it knows
and the Fed knows what they can do.
Other than that, you know,
I'm still long.
I haven't sold anything.
Black Sky, which i bought
about a month ago it's been a beautiful last couple days on that little stock you know still
still pre-revenue but they love their partnership with amazon and you know they're trying to go into
that space and take on tesla with amazon and the yes you know uh with the you know internet satellite
internet there and i like them they're doing good they're helping out with Amazon and working with them you know
we'll see you know Nvidia is gonna have its day in the Sun eventually if this
market's gonna move you just have to be patient and wait for it I that's why I
just went out and put the 147 so I don't have to trade the stock and buy it when
it looks good and then set you know you have too much in that to trim out of
some when it looks bad I'm in the July know, you have too much in that to trim out of some when it looks bad.
It's not the way I would do it.
I'm in the July 150s.
I'm with you.
I'm just trying to sit in it, Scott.
You know, as you say, risk is premium paid.
Just, you know, again, I feel strongly it's going to go.
It's just I'm not trying to time it at this point.
Yeah.
To your point, you know.
I'm a pretty damn good market timer, and it's not really letting me either.
Every time I try to, it just comes right back in my face It breaks out and then it reverses about 15 minutes later. I'm like, yeah, okay
Meanwhile, what about ASTS? Is anyone still in that? I sold my ASTS on Friday
I felt like a friggin rock star and then I I just missed today
I literally had bids in at 43 down to 42 to buy it back.
And I missed it.
And look at it.
It's at 49.
Holy cow.
We've been talking about this thing and, you know, putting options on using it as a swing since like 25 and 27.
It's a great example of looking at a chart and saying, hey, you know, because there was a lot of false starts with that name, you know.
And there are some people
who are just like, this stock's going to be 60 no matter what, I don't care, I'm just buying it.
Okay, that was cool. But also, you know, you could have done it technically, like if you look at ASTS
technically on the daily, finally, you know, when it woke up, you could have been a buyer,
literally on, really the day was right around June 4th is when it really ignited.
And then you had a bunch of, you know, different different ways to do it.
You had that day you had when it got above 35, it went when it got above the high from from August 18th.
That was a spot. So this traded beautifully. But a lot of people, a lot of traders got worn out.
You know, they bought too much at different times when it didn't work and
So bottom line is just because the stock doesn't go when you want it to go
Doesn't mean it stays on the do not touch lists, which we all have one
But it's really a fake list because it just means the stock needed more time So you got to make sure you have enough endurance to go after it when finally it's ready to go you know what else today is a coin despite bitcoin
being down hard a coin is holding in very nicely at this 310 level trying to break to break higher
yeah yeah um you know really nice nice flag there yeah yeah the names they want it just seems like
these keep piling into them right if you a dip, they seem to come running back.
Like Hood today dipped down, but they came running back already to VWAP,
you know, well off the lows, a couple bucks.
It just seems like they just cannot give up on the same names.
Yeah.
What do you guys think about IBM?
This is an interesting mover, which normally we talk about,
but look at the chart this year and how it's been moving.
Every day, new all-time highs.
Yeah, listen, I remember...
This is an interesting one I'm watching.
It's been pretty strong recently.
It looks great.
You know, it just consolidated, played with the 8-day, held the 8-day.
It's been a special name.
I remember when, you know, IBM, they said, you know,
people who buy an IBM would park their money to die.
Same thing they said in Microsoft like 10 years ago.
But all it did is have a huge consolidation on the weekly and the monthly and the yearly.
And then once, I guess, the fundamentals and the way they reworked their business, you know, took hold.
you know, took four, you know, took hold, you know, look at that,
You know, look at that.
Look at the chart.
you know, that really was when IBM became a go-to name again.
And then it traded great. Now it's at an all time. Is it an all time?
Yeah, I guess so. Wow. Held the eight day. Yeah. It's an all time high.
Yeah. Look at, you know, the spies hit the 21 day last weekend,
and IBM didn't even really break the eight days.
So that shows you
relative strength so ibm just like everything else out there when it follows the rules of traders
relative strength relative strength and then moves like this you know it's good it makes some sense
so hopefully you're in it it's acting better than the video i tell you that much
no another one relative strength oracle continues to hold well after that report at all-time highs.
I mean, there's a lot of strength in individual names out there.
Just because the markets are moving, you just have to look around.
You know, it's there.
Oracle just took five days off, and it just held the eight days,
and it's giving you a little bottom hammer here.
So if you're looking for a pull in an Oracle,
today's your day probably to nibble in that.
What a move. Geez, so if you're looking for a pull in an oracle, today's your day probably to nibble in that. What a move.
Geez, yeah, look at that.
Old school.
Should we play a little raw bass?
I usually listen to a little raw bass around 6 o'clock in the morning
when I'm doing my 40 charts.
I will say, instead of listening to CNBC and Bloomberg
when you're doing your 40 charts in the morning, listen to the radio.
It'll keep your sanity a lot more.
Little tidbit.
Hey man, you can't listen to these guys. I don't listen to them anymore.
It's just, nothing good comes from it.
No. No, no, no. I put it on like 920.
But anyway, so I guess on that i'm just saying like
you know if you have your routine in the morning some people like red dog how do you get up at 4 45
every day and keep your sanity and go through the motions i'm like because i like my routine
i like you know doing my workout in the sauna and talking stocks and getting some fitness and i like
sitting on my desk and doing the 6 30 club and then i turn some music on and i do my charts and
you know and i kind of relax with an iced coffee so whatever you do however you go about your
routine and your morning and your process make sure it's something you don't mind doing every
day because if you don't you know if you don't like it you're not going to do it every day if
you don't do it every day there's no way you're going to be prepared enough to actually execute
with confidence when things are on the move. I saw Shai jumped up here.
Shai, I'd love to bring you in next and see some of the names we were talking about a
little bit earlier, names you've talked about a lot, ASTS.
Obviously, we saw the Tesla yesterday.
And what else is on your radar?
But Shai, I'd love to hear how your day was in the market.
What's sticking out to you?
Yeah, I mean, I told Sam in Logical last last night like as soon as the futures opened when i
saw tessa right i was like they're gonna catch a major bid off of that uh uh robo tax yesterday
and here we see it they're up nine percent so 10 swing since the futures opened and i think
it's nice to see uh i i want to call out that i am uh it's-ten position for me. I am a long-term Tesla bull, Elon fangirl.
But I think the optimism might be a little too aggressive.
I think that this weekend was a clear step that the first domino has officially fallen.
And it's not a sci-fi promise.
It's an actual reality that Elon's angle on autonomy is going to only gain momentum from here on out.
And the market is treating this as a milestone. You're seeing them up 8% today at 350.
Even when we had that intraday sell off, like it was still holding pretty strong and again it's because a lot of the markets for looking mechanism and
it's pricing in Tesla becoming this revenue generating node where like gross margin per
vehicle won't be capped at a one-time sale anymore it's going to compound over time that is a complete
180 on the whole space that's something that's going to become revolutionary just as in a very much like an Elon way.
So I do think that, again, if this continues momentum, it's going to result in less reliance on the car delivery volume.
It's going to be a lot more leverage on the fleet density and a lot more of a business model that's going to be a scalable software.
But in this morning's future and daily signal
now like we went over the tesla robo taxi events and we reiterated like we loved what we saw
but this won't be as simple of a plug and play as a software angle will be because again autonomy
doesn't scale like software it's going to scale like infrastructure which means each city
is going to bring its own regulatory friction complexity and all these overheads that are going
to be very case specific city by city so what worked in austin doesn't necessarily mean it
will replicate linearly in different cities is what i'm trying to say. So like California, for example, or LA, like it's going to be so different than Austin.
So it's going to take time.
But I think this was a monumental first step.
And it's being priced a 9% to 10% jump on that.
But it's not going to be a complete rerating off the gate.
It's going to take some time. It's the beginning of a new chapter. gate it's going to take some time it's the beginning
of a new chapter and it's going to be an exciting one i'm really happy to be part of the journey and
i think that mobility as a service economics is now officially a reality and uh we'll see where
it takes from here um so that's tesla other one is rock lab that's a two percent away from all-time highs they're up
nine percent today i have not found any news story on why they're catching a major bit today
as well as friday i think they had a huge bid on friday i don't know maybe new the momentum
towards neutron i i don't know but this is a name that's catching a major bid and it's i think it's also moving with asts by the
way just so you know oh maybe it could be space infrastructure uh well t t mobile is launching
um satellite to phone capability in late july uh even though st is a competitor that technically
go ahead there's a story from amazon that they launched project hyper satellites today so it could be a
high tide result boat space is clearly getting more bullish and if rock lab is the space logistics
company in the future it's high tide they're gonna benefit off that so that could be the case and
that's thesis validating because that was a whole original thesis that they're not launching company
they're going to turn to a prime and even more than that uh the fedex of space uh so other some other names i noticed i mean security
is just like crowd strike to like v-shaped off that earnings dud uh they're just showing a ton
of strength since they uh reported their earnings at 490 now uh uh, they're, they're gonna hit the 500 psych level.
And, uh, that's gonna be, they might be at all time highs right now.
Actually, I don't know.
Uh, but they're just showing so much relative strength.
And this is a name that you look at the price action since the outage and you think like,
oh, everything's better than, uh, back to normal.
It's not the case.
Like under the hood, it's still very ugly.
It's still very margin compression story it's uh they are experiencing a multiple expansion
and they're getting price here and price here but the market's willing to price up names that
will survive the ai tsunami not just survive thrive and that's where you're seeing crowd
strike hit all-time highs uh pounds here just all time highs, relative strength cloud flare.
I still think the same way under discussed.
Like they are just so expensive.
They are just, but they're a ton of relative strength close to, uh, not close to all time
highs.
They went crazy actually in 2021, I think it was two 20, but either way, like they're
at one 85, that's really expensive what they
do, but they're going to be thriving from AI. So they're going to survive the AI tsunami. So
either way, like this new age defense bucket is clearly acting really well. Some names that
aren't acting well. Astera Labs is a really interesting case study for me. I don't know
why they keep giving back their gains like i know
it's a broadcoms game that they're trying to play at not even play directly at but it's their they
have a competing product with nvidia but nvidia's mv link fusion's partying up with them so really
it's a it's not as much of a competition as you would think but i don't know network is clearly
a hop the hot pocket on on where AI spend is happening.
You just saw, due to the explosion inference from training data become cheaper and cheaper.
And you saw NVIDIA just destroy their networking revenue estimates.
That was like the hidden gem of their last earnings cycle was that specific metric.
And that's where you're seeing Broadcom catch bids.
You're seeing Marvell catch bids you're seeing
marvell just have that tam expansion last week uh we had we had our team at that event and they came
away very bullish um we'll see what they how they tackle the next gen of tranium but they
reiterated the tam uh that lisa also talked about at amd a couple weeks ago so like either way like
inference data,
inference demand is exploding
and that's gonna cause a TAM expansion.
And Astera Labs is solving an interesting AI bottleneck
in that realm, but they keep fading.
Like, I don't know, maybe I'll pass the stamp
because Sam follows that space.
Well, why do you think they keep fading?
Like it's, they hit 95, they always,
they're down 8% today on, I don't think any news.
It's just a stare thing to do.
Well, it just might be more competition.
I mean, look at Cisco has been on the run lately as well as Arrested Net is up like
7% today.
Yeah.
Almost 7% today based on reiterating news from analysts.
But overall, I mean, it's just a volatile stock.
I mean, we've been watching this for quite some time.
It's up like from like 60 bucks,
even though I think it was like 50 bucks in April.
So it's going to continue to be volatile,
but it's not surprising.
There has to be some sort of theme
that's happening right now in the background
because Marvell is down like 5%.
Sterile Labs is down like 5%.
I wouldn't say Broadcom is down today,
but you would expect it to have much.
Actually, no, it's up 1.5%.
I think they didn't refresh.
But probably just a little bit of rotation of money
in terms of what's happening in the market.
I mean, SMCI is down like 9%.
Vertiv Holdings or Vertiv is down like 2%.
It doesn't really seem like it's any particular thing that's happening with the company on a micro level.
It's just money chasing certain trends.
But I would say even with the Arrested Network, they're much more profitable in that nature.
And I would even say a bit more mature than Estelle Labs.
But speculative money is kind of moving around a bit in the markets.
Yeah, that's a very valid point okay and I would be the floats very different but yeah I'll pass it back to you Sam that was my piece
but yeah strong day today if you're a growth investor love to see the balance and I still
think the foundation is a bit shaky but follow the action. Clearly, the market's shrugging off all the geopolitical mess across the pond.
But Sam, pass it to you.
Yeah, I mean, I was also going to comment on Apple 11.
It's getting a little bit of a bid today after falling about 25% from its recent highs
after possibly not being included in the S&P 500 inclusion.
I mean, it wasn't expected to happen, but it was one of the candidates for it.
Robinhood's about down 2.6%.
But I think a lot of what people are wondering is why HEMS is down 32% today.
You commented that I met earlier today, Shai.
And it's just that partnership as far as Nova Nordisk goes with HEMS, I mean, that's quite something.
I didn't necessarily see that coming.
I'm sure a lot of people did. but that was actually consolidated for quite some time,
probably two or three weeks, and kind of had a false break out there in the 60s,
and then just pulled back down like 32%.
So, you know, continues to be a volatile stock.
Is it thesis changing?
I'm not so sure if that's thesis changing, to be honest.
But at the same time, you know, it's just, you see, I wouldn't say this is necessarily
profit taking, but maybe shorts are just being added more onto the stock, if anything.
But I mean, like 32% down on Hams is like 5% down on like some Medcap stock.
I saw somebody post that earlier, but it's really what it is.
It's a very volatile stock.
And like, I just seeing something like this happen.
Yeah, it's a pretty big move for him in terms of 32 but at the same time it's like not really surprising to
just see how how many peaks and troughs this thing has had uh but overall i mean google is down like
one percent amazon's down like 30 basis points and then you have like tesla up like eight percent
today it's just uh i i wouldn't say like it's an all out hey we're in the. We're going back to all time highs market because generally speaking, you'd see like all the sectors rally with the exception of energy pulling back quite a considerable amount.
I mean, oil was up like 8 percent as soon as it opened.
If you looked at the weekend Wall Street for crude oil, that thing was up like almost 9 percent.
And then see it down like 7 percent today, likely because of the retaliation.
People expected the retaliation to be a lot worse for the continued escalation to continue occurring.
And it just didn't seem that way.
But I think it's kind of forward looking at this one and thinking like, okay, well, we just saw the largest escalation of benefits.
I think we bombed those nuclear reactors or whatever you call them in iran so
now maybe we're in the clearing and you saw bitcoin had quite a bounce off of that uh 98k
level so you know probably still a little bit cautious here um not looking in terms of pressing
leverage or anything uh maybe maybe something as like a short day trade play but it doesn't seem
like this is a,
Hey guys,
we're in the clear sort of thing with the exception of maybe a few names on the board.
You know,
you brought up hims.
I'm not sure they can survive this without Nova notice and they're going to
get sued because they said,
we're going to keep doing it anyway.
If their financials were not good.
The main problem for them is the personalization.
It was a stupid idea in the first place, in my opinion.
But, yeah, the personalization is going to be an issue for them
because Novo Nordisk did not terminate their partnerships
with the other third-party providers.
So if they choose to just continue to compound personalized GLP-1s,
that will be a legal issue.
That was actually in Needham's note today.
Needham downgraded the stock intraday.
They were actually one of the most bullish shops on Wall Street, on Hems on the way up. issue that was actually in needham's note today needham downgraded the stock intraday they were
actually one of the most bullish shops on wall street on hymns on the way up but they downgraded
it today and said this adds a level of cloudiness to the legal situation that we can't yet
determine so yeah i do think it'll be an issue for them um i'm to take that segue to jump in here. I do have a lot of things I want to touch on today. I'm going to go over a bunch of stocks in our portfolio, talk about some
potentially setting up for some more upside. But I opened a position this morning in Sphere,
digger SPHR, traded this one several times in the past. It's usually been good to us.
traded this one several times in the past.
It's usually been good to us.
There was a Craig Hallam note out this morning on Sphere
that I thought was pretty interesting and pretty compelling.
Obviously, they described the business like they normally would.
For those that don't know Sphere, it's a Las Vegas,
pretty captivating venue for people who have not been.
But they made the argument that they're
disrupting the traditional venue model and they expect rapid expansion and franchising of the
model in the coming years and they made a case for a long-term bull case on the stock of 200
dollars per share keep in mind that's a stock that as of this morning was trading under 40 bucks
um that's pretty bold from craig hallam you generally don't see craig hallam throw
the rock out that far but um they were willing to do that on this name i was looking at the chart
this morning and i found the chart to be pretty compelling stocks emerging above the 200 in moving
average and uh looks like we are going to get a close above that spot today as well.
Let me pull this up the chart here.
But yeah, we retook the... Oh, that'll load.
There you go.
We attempted to retake the 200-day moving average three times in the past week or so.
Today, punching through it pretty decisively with the 90MA pointing up about to collide with the 200.
I like that look i generally love when prices wedge right under the 200 attempting a breakout there's a catalyst in favor if you have short interest i think that magnifies the scenario
the stock is 30 short floats 30 short which i think frankly is too high um and so i do think
some of those shorts need to come out of this trade and
around the 200 day would be a great place to do it around a recapture the
200 day.
So maybe potentially setting up for a squeezier move.
But we did open a position in that one this morning on that name.
And this sort of fits into,
I have baskets in my portfolio.
You know,
I've talked a lot about our mid cap aerospace and defense basket, which has obviously been performing very well in the last couple weeks with all these
geopolitical tensions that basket is kratos huntington and gallus and mercury systems
currently um but i have baskets like that for the exposures i want throughout my portfolio and right
now i have what i like to call a little bit of a short interest basket. So this kind of started with ASTS.
So I've been posting my ASTS on my timeline for the last couple of weeks.
But the monthly consolidation about two weeks ago, I thought looked very explosive.
So it opened up some $25 and $30 calls.
And obviously the stock proceeded to go on a monster run.
That was when the stock was around $31 a share.
And those ended up running hundreds of percent the 25 calls as of friday's close for june 20th expiry were up 520 percent
and uh i ended up exercising those on friday for asts so it gave me an effective cost based on the
stock of 2863 and so I'm still holding that.
And it was great to see that stock up again today, another 7% because now I'm effectively a shareholder.
And so the advantage, cost advantage on those shares now is I'm up 72% on those shares with a 2883 cost basis.
And I literally just picked them up on Friday by exercising the 25 calls.
So I rarely exercise calls.
I think the last two years I've exerc exercising the 25 calls. So I rarely exercise calls. In the last two years,
I've exercised two different calls. The first were on Robin Hood with the 15 and 20 calls that I
exercised in December of last year. And then this ASTS position that I exercised on Friday,
those have been the only contracts I've exercised over the last two years. So it's very rare for me to do it,
but I felt like ASDS was in a good position to do that.
So the short interest basket sort of started with ASDS for us.
Last couple of weeks, I added other names to that basket.
I've touched on a few of them here, but Bloom Energy is one of them,
which I think continues to have a very, very compelling chart
on all timeframes.
I think the monthly is compelling.
I think the weekly is compelling. I think the monthly is compelling.
I think the weekly is compelling.
I think the daily is compelling.
Bloom Energy is also 25% short.
The third name that we added over the last couple of weeks to fit this basket was CRISPR Therapeutics, CRSP.
That stock is also recently emerging above the 200-day moving average on high volume.
It's now attempting to consolidate above it with the 9 EMA poking its head above the 200-day moving average on high volume, is now attempting
to consolidate above it with the 9 EMA poking its head above the 200-day. Similar type of explosive
setup that I like, and also highly shorted. Also, over 25% of the float is short. So that's my little
bit of a short interest basket, I guess, in my portfolio right now. ASTS, Sphere, Bloom Energy,
I guess in my portfolio right now, ASTS, Sphere, Bloom Energy, and CRISPR Therapeutics, are they all going to work? No. But I do expect a few of them to make short squeeze type moves. And yeah, very clearly defined points of risk on most of those trades because they're trading so close to the 200 day moving average.
It makes it really easy for me and comfortable for me to be in those trades because, you know, it's obvious to me where my point of risk is.
I don't have to guess. I don't have to wait for the stock to be down 5% or 6% and be like, should I still be in the trade?
Very, very clearly defined support on all those names of the 200 days.
So I'll continue to play those names off of it.
But I really like the way they're shaping up today.
They're actually acting great in the front half of the session bloom energy didn't even budge to the red today even
with the the intraday war volatility that had the s&p 500 moving up and down and crisper shaping up
really nicely into the close as well same thing with sphere you know that thing came down intraday
when spy sold off it was up 10 off the open now curling back up into the close. So I like the looks on those. I picked up a small position in that as well, North American tankers,
in case we do see some geopolitical volatility, additional geopolitical volatility, but that's a
very small position and it's more of a positional hedge for me than anything where, hey, look,
if we do get some kind of obstructions in the straight-up
or moose, I think that probably benefits the tanker stocks.
And if not, another stock where there's a clearly defined stop at the 200-day.
And it's very, very tight on that one, right?
So you get 272, so you're risking like 10 cents on the trade.
Pretty sensible, straightforward position there for me.
So did some stuff today.
Mostly it was the sphere position that I opened and added to that short interest basket. But I really, really
liked the way my portfolio is working. I mean, you know, this morning, even when the markets
turned on their head intraday, still had like 13, 14 positions in the bright green in the middle of
the day. So to me, that tells me I'm in the right stocks. Another name that I want to touch on too
is GSRT, which I've touched on plenty here in these spaces in the right stocks. Another name that I want to touch on too is GSRT,
which I've touched on plenty here in these spaces in the last couple of weeks.
It's a pre-merger SPAC, but a couple of weeks ago when I discussed it, it was trading in the 1050s.
The net asset value for that is in the 1030s. So your total absolute risk on that position at that time was around less than four percent
now as of friday's close some big bidder came in on friday and stepped this thing up over the 11
break then closed above 11 for the first time on friday and then saw some relative strength
early in the session today looks like we're going to close above 11 again for the second consecutive
session for those that have not traded pre-merger SPACs before,
generally a close above 11 is an indication
that the ARBs have been churned.
If you don't know what ARBs are,
they're arbitrage traders.
And with SPACs, they like to sit in these names
when they're close to net asset value.
Why?
Because they can buy the stocks in extremely large size at the 1040, 1050, 1030 area,
and then sell them in extremely large size, the 1080, 1090, 11 area. So that's basic arbitrage
trading in the SPAC world. It happens with almost every SPAC. And the key to trading pre-merger SPACs is having the patience to wait for that arbitration period
to end. And for GSRT, we've been accumulating it. It's actually the biggest pre-merger SPAC
position I've ever had, even bigger than CCIV for those that remember the 2020 SPAC craze for those
that were following me back then. But yeah, it's become a massive position.
My portfolio is about 15% of my portfolio.
I was accumulating it aggressively in the 1050s, 1060s.
I think I posted.
What symbol is that?
I missed the symbol you said on that one.
GSRT.
GSRT.
Yes, I think I posted about it on our server every day for, I don't know,
two weeks that I was buying more, buying more, buying more. And I rarely don't do that. But now that we got the pop above 11,
obviously the risk has increased. So the net asset value is sitting around 1030. You can do the math,
whatever that is versus the current share price, that is your total risk. So it's up to being
around 7-ish percent risk now versus 4% risk when we shared it. But I do still think
it's an incredibly compelling opportunity, which is why I haven't sold any shares,
not even a single share, because if you look at the SMR environment, the small modular reactor
stock environment, and you look at the comps for GSRT, they are trading at literally 20 times the
market cap. If you look at SMR, which is the
leading commercialization player, I still think it's the best player in the space. But from a
valuation standpoint, SMR is trading at a $10 billion market cap. GSRT's effective market cap
at net asset value is $475 million. If you add the 7% premium to that, you're looking at a market cap of about 530
million with comps trading at 10 to 20 times. Keep in mind, there is no differentiation to
the comps here because all of these small modular reactor companies, every single one
is pre-revenue. It's not like some of them are making more money than others. They're
all making no money. So the entire market pricing around this theme with names like Ocklo, SMR, NNNE is entirely
market premium, the entirety of the valuations.
That plus whatever sort of contract longevity you think they have, blue chip partnerships,
et cetera, that obviously adds to it as well.
But entirely speculative space, market caps in excess of $10 billion, and you have a near zero risk play trading at 1 20th
the market cap with an investor presentation this Wednesday, this week. I mean, it's only a matter
of time before the market realizes, holy shit, this is the only small modular reactor play in
the entire market that hasn't run 500%. All right. So you're risking back to 10 bucks.
Not so bad. Yeah, I'm risking 15% of my portfolio with an effective less than 4% risk.
My cost average on the stock is $10.62.
The net asset value at this point is you add $0.05 roughly per month.
So you're looking at probably like a $10.30, $10.35 net asset value,
which means I can redeem my shares for $ for 1035 at any point pre-merger
it's people this what people don't understand about SPACs I try to teach this to people very
often I guess they get confused and like walk away from it it sounds too good to be true
but there are scenarios in which SPACs are literally free money
I listen no one ever wants to hear that that. You just sold me. I bought a little
bit. There are scenarios where if you are trading under the net asset value, it's free money. If the
net asset value for SPAC is 1020 and the stock is trading 980, you can buy as many shares as you can
get your hands on at 980 and redeem them for 1020. This is what people don't understand about SPACs.
your hands on at 980 and redeem them for 1020. So this is what people don't understand about SPACs
is like, there are scenarios, and it's very rare, by the way, for SPAC to trade under NAV. It's very
rare, maybe in a more volatile environment, like 2020, where there were so many SPACs, it was a
little bit more common back then. But now with very few quality targets, it's going to be very
rare to find a SPAC under NAV. But you do still have controlled risk, right?
If you buy a regular stock, there is no floor, right?
I mean, if you just buy a stock and hold it and close your eyes, you could be down 30%.
You could be down 50%.
You could be down 70% over a certain period of time.
That cannot happen with a pre-merger SPAC.
Period.
End of story.
Cannot happen.
So something to be mindful of.
I've been saying this on these spaces about the stock, I don't know, for three weeks now. A lot of people still don't be mindful of, I've been saying this on these spaces
about the stock, I don't know, for three weeks now. A lot of people still don't seem to understand
what I've been saying, but we're 11 plus now on the name. So your risk is higher. So be mindful
of that. Don't allocate an amount of capital that you can't lose 7% on, but it is one of my largest
positions. I have been accumulating at hand over fist for weeks and they have an investor presentation
this Wednesday, which will be their first investor presentation.
Maybe the market will wake up to the fact that they've missed a nuclear stock.
But outside of GSRT.
What symbol is that, Scott?
I'm sorry, I missed it.
I think they told a lot of people.
What symbol?
Back in the day when you were like a stockbroker, I'm not saying you, just in general, when you give the whole pitch and then you shut up and everyone's like, wait, what was the symbol on that?
That's a pure buy signal.
Stuck.
Yeah, I mean.
Stuck, have you heard of this GSRT name?
I've been looking at it.
Sorry, Mike, what were you asking me?
GSRT.
Just wanted to make sure that's what we're talking about here.
Yeah, yeah.
By the way, I like your idea with Sphere also.
Yeah, everyone should keep in mind, post-merger, your risk floor disappears.
So if you want to trade a pre-merger SPAC with a risk floor, you must only trade it for the duration prior to the redemption date so
before the merger there will be a redemption date prior to that redemption
date you have a risk for after that redemption date you cannot redeem your
shares any longer so whoever has bought this idea in the past or is interested
in this idea now even though I've been talking about it for weeks if if you are interested in it, just understand that. Understand that the floor isn't there forever.
When it IPOs and merges with the target, that floor disappears. So be mindful of that.
But yeah, GSRT, I think it remains compelling. And as far as the nuclear trade goes, I still have,
you know, a major, major position in
LEU, which I have not sold any shares in, even though the stock has doubled in a month.
And some of our members are like, you're crazy for not selling a share.
But I just don't see it that way.
You know, Centris Energy has been my favorite nuclear name for five years.
I used to own it in the 40s, sold it in the 80s last year on that
massive run that nuclear stocks had, and I regretted selling it. And so when I reentered
at 96 in May, I'm not touching it. I really do think that Centris Energy is one of the most
valuable mid-cap assets on planet Earth. And I don't think I'm going to sell it at a $3.5 billion
market capitalization. And the reason I believe that'm going to sell it at a three and a half billion dollar market
capitalization. And the reason I believe that is because I've mentioned this before, but it is the
only publicly traded uranium enrichment company in the world. The only, not one of them, not one
of a handful, just one, just one. Every other uranium enrichment asset on earth is either
state owned or privately owned. Every single solitary one except Centris Energy. Is that
worth more than a $3.5 billion market capitalization regardless of the earnings? I think so. I think
on rarity premium alone. And so that's why I haven't sold a single solitary share of Centris
Energy despite a parabolic run. So some positions
you have higher conviction in, some positions you have lower conviction in, that's the way it works.
You know, my high short interest basket, are those investments for me? No. I'm looking for a squeeze
on those names. If I get it, cool. If I don't get it, I move on. My names that I spend 20, 30 minutes
talking about in detail that are my core positions,
like Nebius and Centris Energy and Robinhood and Tesla and Amazon, I don't sell those stocks.
So, you know, it just, for me, the purpose of the position dictates my management of the position
and how willing I am to be risk attentive to the position, how strict I am with risk.
You know, a lot of times I'll share like my trading principles or like spots I'll look at.
Like I was doing a workshop yesterday for our members called How to Swing Like a Pro,
where I was recapping these swing trades and trying to teach them some principles of swing trading.
And a question I often get in that is like,
okay, like what's your risk spot? Do you stop out of everything at the 21 EMA? Do you stop out of everything at the 200 day? And my simple response to that is no, of course not. There's not some
universal line in the sand that I have for every equity I own that if it loses this magical line,
then I'm out. No, it depends on the purpose of the position.
Some positions are trading.
By the way, sorry to interrupt.
There's a true social post going around right now.
It's actually a little bit calmer than you would have thought.
But Trump, some of it saying, please report no Americans were harmed.
Hardly any damage was done.
More importantly, they've gotten it all out of their systems,
and there will hopefully be no further
hate. So it kind of sounds like that
you know, tit for tat, he doesn't want to go back.
I don't know. We'll see. But Trump
comments, too social, two, three minutes old.
You can get some new thoughts.
I want to get that out there.
Sorry for interrupting you. No, you're good you're good i was pretty much done anyway
we can um markets do seem to be moving off of that one
yep i i clearly killed the conversation you're good it wasn't a conversation i was just ranting
but yeah that's that's pretty much it.
I mean, I think, you know, in this market,
you just stay focused on the names that you understand
and work well for you.
And you continue to manage risk incrementally along the way.
I mean, this has been a very, very hard market to short,
obviously, I don't need to tell anyone that.
And it has been a market where holding high conviction
individual stocks has paid very, very handsomely.
And, you know, yes, you're going to have moments where you get shaken out.
I mean, even this morning, there were a bunch of stocks that were down when the market dumped off the of the initial rip.
And, you know, people were like, this it is this the end and it's just
that mentality just gets quick like you know repeated every time uh we have a red day in the
markets and like i even put out a little message for our members today in the chat because people
were like scrambling about stocks being down four or five percent in the morning i was like
guys chill out like take a deep breath like if you can't handle stocks being down 4% or 5%,
you're never going to be able to swing trade anything or invest in anything.
Right?
Like, you might as well just give up on it.
If you can't, if you literally cannot handle it when a stock is red in your portfolio
and you just are scrambling and wondering what you have to do
and wondering if you need to hedge, I mean, that's no way to manage a portfolio.
And you're never going to be able to do it effectively
if you just live in constant fear of seeing red on your positions.
That's part of the game.
Some of my best trades of this year, last year, the year before,
best trades of my career period,
have been stocks that for the first few weeks of the trade didn't do anything.
Or sometimes even the first couple of months of the trade didn't do anything. Or sometimes even the first couple of months of the trade didn't do anything. And that's something you have to navigate based
on your conviction level. It's really hard to sit in a stock that you bought because somebody else
mentioned and wait for it to consolidate for weeks or months, if you have no idea why you own the stock or you have no idea what the potential for the stock is
or what the catalyst on the table is, or you don't have any context about it,
it's really hard to just sit there and hold it.
But for me, when I have a thesis on a stock, it's not hard for me at all to sit there and hold it.
There are reservations about it. If I make the decision to allocate capital to a stock, I have already made the decision that
there is some sort of thesis there, whether it's technical, fundamental, catalyst-driven.
So there's already a purpose to the trade on the table. Once I allocate that capital,
the capital is allocated unless my point of risk is breached.
If the stock bounces around and consolidates along support, I'm not getting out of the trade just because.
I'm not just getting impatient and getting out of it.
There are times where there are exceptions to that, but that's by virtue of buying power management and not by virtue of lack of confidence in the position.
Those are two distinct things, right?
Like sometimes I'll cut a stock and I'll be like, hey, guys, I just need to free up some
buying power.
You know, something else I'm interested in.
And people will be like, well, do you hate the stock now?
You know, it's just the stock still looks fine.
The stock might structurally still be fine, but there's just something else I want to
buy more. And so, you know, I'm moving some buying power around. I do that frequently. And, you know,
a lot of times the stocks I sell end up proceeding higher, but that's not a, you know, that's not a,
a critique on the, on the, on the strategy or on the management of, of, of doing so.
Because at the end of the day, it's going to vary from person to person.
It's going to depend on how many positions you have. It's going to depend on if you're in margin
and if you are in margin by how much, what percentage overweight are you, are you diversified
enough, how many sectors do you have exposure to. All of those things can matter to position
management. So it's not just a simple black and white answer when it comes to those things.
It really depends on the collective set of positions you have.
And if you're somebody that trades only one position at a time or two positions at a time, and there's some people that do that, I guess, then, you know, what I'm saying is probably not relevant for you.
But for me, as somebody that manages a portfolio of stocks, I have to think that way.
I have to think in terms
of buying power conservation. I have to think in terms of how I'm deploying my leverage, if I'm
deploying it smartly, which stocks I'm deploying leverage on, which stocks I'm choosing not to
deploy leverage on. Those are performance-based decisions that I make in real time. And they're
not always black and white decisions. Sometimes I might like too
many stocks at once. I can't own them all. Right. And so I have to find some way to filter and
differentiate through those opportunities. And sometimes it can be something as simple as,
well, I'm between these two names. One of them has been a relative strength candidate and the
other hasn't. Outside of that, they technically look similar outside of that the quality of their catalysts are similar sometimes i have to get
nitpicky to be able to make those distinctions but that's part of the game you can't own
everything right even if you have a portfolio that's hundreds of millions of dollars or billions
of dollars no matter how much capital you have you can only have a limited amount of positions
period that never changes you know getting more capital doesn't mean you can only have a limited amount of positions, period. That never changes.
You know, getting more capital doesn't mean you can have an unlimited amount of positions. It just
means you're going to have bigger positions. And, you know, you still have to follow the principles
of portfolio management either way, regardless of how much money you have. So anyway, back to you,
I don't think enough people put enough emphasis on risk management,
and that also includes position sizing. It also includes admitting when you're wrong on something,
selling position on a long-term basis, even a short-term basis too, stop losses and so on.
Risk management is something to be acclimated in not just trading, but also investing. When I say
trading, I mean like short-term versus investing long-term.
It needs to be practiced regardless.
I think there's a lot of people who, you know,
they don't really understand risk management.
Maybe they have a higher risk tolerance,
so they put on very volatile, high beta positions at big size.
And that's fine, but as long as you understand what you're doing.
You know, because even a day like today,
if you saw maybe like your portfolio double because you're all in hymns and then you get a day like today and you're down like 32 percent, it's possible you might have lost all your gains just in one day.
If you got in around forty two dollars or more, it's a close below forty two dollars.
But people got to understand risk management is probably the most important thing this entire game like if you're not managing risk then you might as well just not really might as well but if you're not managing risk in a certain position then you can easily see
a position double and then pull back all the way to your cost basis where you originally were because
you didn't manage your risk or you didn't take anything off the top of whatever it is i mean from
a long-term perspective i think selling out a position or selling out of a company when the
fundamentals change that that's a form of risk management because your risk parameters in that are that when the fundamentals
change then you're going to sell so if you take a day like today oh their partnership's over
just gonna cause a lot of implications for him and you sell well that's a form of risk management
as well just because you're not selling at profit doesn't mean it doesn't mean that you're not
managing risk you're managing risk when you know what you when you're going to sell and when you
do sell when you know you're going to take sell and when you do sell, when you know you're going to take profit
and when you do take profit at that time.
For example, taking some off the top from CrowdTrack today,
closed nearly at an all-time high, just shy of an all-time high today.
But taking like 10% off, there's nothing wrong with that.
You're just managing risk from your parameters, right?
Meanwhile, someone who's 21 years old,
they can hold CrowdTrack for about 20 years,
and today doesn't really matter to them.
That's important too.
But at the same time, in this whole game, I feel like risk management 20 years and today doesn't really matter to them. That's important too.
But at the same time in this whole game, I feel like risk management is the most important
thing when it comes to it.
Some great thoughts there.
I saw Ali joined us again.
Great to have you back on the show.
Ali, what have you been watching out there in this market?
We've hit a few of the major topics that have gone through everything.
I'd love to see what's on your radar, what's on your mind today.
I definitely say that the oil price is watching very closely. Obviously, this is something that
Wall Street watchers have been looking at over the past few trading sessions, and especially after the escalation that we saw over the weekend. I think the expectation heading
into today was that we were going to see oil prices move significantly to the upside, which we
saw a bit in overnight futures trading. But the fact that we closed down around 7%, the fact that
crude oil is down below 70 bucks a barrel, I think it's just a sign that markets are not pricing in a longer term conflict here.
So we'll continue to monitor this and see what happens.
But it seems like there's a big shrug on the part of investors and definitely oil traders as well, that this isn't going to be a major escalation, that Iran is not going to close the Strait of Hormuz, that we're not going to see higher elevated oil prices over the long term, because that has been the big risk, I'd say, that
analysts have been pointing to.
Because historically speaking, markets really tend to look past a lot of these geopolitical
risks.
The only way that they would not in this case is if we saw that continued climb higher
in oil prices. And I'm
talking like 120 bucks a barrel, 130 bucks a barrel. Clearly, we're not seeing that right now.
In fact, we're seeing the exact opposite. But it seems like that risk, at least right now,
has been removed. It seemed like the, you know, people were kind of speculating with the oil
overnight, maybe even hedging long in case something happened with the straight-up form use.
And then when we saw what the actual reaction or retaliation was from Iran today, it's like
immediately just everyone said, oh, that's it?
Okay, sell everything in oil.
And we just saw it just crash.
I mean, looking at the futures are down 8% from where they were the previous,
what, Friday, I guess, would be the previous day's close.
Right. It seems like the worst case, which would be that closure of Shredder Pramos,
did not materialize. So because of that, that is a big sigh of relief here. And Iran,
even though they did retaliate, they telegraphed that they were
going to do it. They warned this would be happening. They launched the same amount of
bombs that the US did on them. So that was also looked at as another possible de-escalation.
So all things considered, I think the expectation was maybe for something worse. And because that
did not happen, we're seeing this reaction, not just in oil markets, but also equity markets as well. Bitcoin often looked at as a parameter
when it comes to risk appetite for investors. That's edging higher today when earlier we saw
that edging lower. So I just think we're now back in this risk on mode for stocks.
risk on mode for stocks.
Are there any stocks that you were watching today in particular?
I know one avenue we haven't really dove deep into, we talked about a little bit earlier,
was the RoboTaxi, Tesla stuff over the weekend.
Yesterday, we were watching a lot of those live streams.
But what was on your radar today on the stock side of things?
Yeah, I think the stock side of things, obviously Tesla was a
surprising one. I think we saw that stock and is it over 10% at this point? At one point it was up
double digits. And for a company like Tesla, which we know can be up and down, I always love watching
this, the sheer reaction from that investor perspective. And it wasn't too long ago that we had
the Musk versus Trump situation. It just feels like the news cycle is so fast at this point,
and it's hard to keep up with all the different changes there. But yeah, Tesla was definitely
one on my mind. We saw strategy stock dip after buying more Bitcoin. And I think just the whole strategy mantra of just
leaning into the crypto universe so heavily, and we're seeing that with other stocks as well. I
mean, DJT, Trump Media Group, they're planning to launch their own Bitcoin reserve. I just think
the fact that crypto has become so mainstream for these individual companies, it's part of their
balance sheets now. I just
wonder what that means for the longer term there, the longer term story for crypto, what that means
for retail investors, especially with all those ETFs performing so well at the same time. So yeah,
I mean, it seems like the economic news took over and just the general headlines coming out from
this Israel-Iran escalation.
That seemed to be the main focus today, but certainly a lot of good individual company stories out there as well.
I do want to, Stock Talk, I want to ask you a little bit more about the Tesla stuff.
We hear the term and people use the term proof of concept a lot, right?
We hear the term and people use the term proof of concept a lot, right?
This is proof of concept in one of the bigger stages, revolution that we've seen, right?
Is that where your opinion's at on this?
Yeah, I mean, look, people are going to minimize this the same way that they've minimized pretty much all of elon's impossible
accomplishments i mean you know one thing i like to refer to often when people uh when i when i
hear skepticism about elon is the the falcon program spacex's falcon program for those that
don't know their reusable rocket program in the very early days.
To go back and look at, like, the media coverage of it,
when SpaceX was developing it, it's very, very synonymous with the media coverage around Tesla full-self driving.
And, you know, also analogous to the media coverage around Neuralink as well,
which the media was very wrong about.
Neuralink is, you know, in several patients now and has transformed their lives. SpaceX
owns 95% of the global payload market share with a reusable rocket program. And Tesla
is now vying to also try to do something that many have painted as impossible.
The distinction that's important to keep in mind is what I've mentioned before, which is the absence of LIDAR.
People don't think it's a big deal, but it is a big deal.
Every autonomous company in the world, every single one, every Chinese company, every American company, I'm talking about Google, I'm talking about Amazon Zoo, I'm talking about every self-driving company you can think of uses LIDAR.
Every single solitary one.
There's not one vision-based pure AI company that's attempting to make self-driving vehicles in the world outside of Tesla.
And that is partially why so many people said it was impossible.
Now, to be sober about this and put this in realistic terms, yes, it is just a start.
Yes, it is a geofenced area. It's actually a relatively small geofenced area.
Yes, it is a geofenced area. It's actually a relatively small geofenced area. Yes, it is only 30 vehicles. There have been down times during the service so far where, you know, only 20 or so, the fleet. But there have been no adverse events reported so far.
And I know it's just been a few days.
That may change when it goes wide. But I think you have to wait for that to happen before you can make broad sweeping judgments about whether the technology is effective.
I think what Tesla has at the very least demonstrated is that they can operate a vehicle with no driver,
with the liability of a passenger in the vehicle, with nothing but cameras.
And that alone is impressive.
Even if it's at small scale, even if there's not hundreds or thousands of vehicles
involved the fact that they have demonstrated for the public to see that somebody can ride in the
back of a vehicle with no driver and then they will be taken to a destination um in what i think
is a pretty decent looking app too actually actually. But obviously a preliminary introduction app.
It's not their full app yet, but I think it's impressive.
Obviously coming from a very, very long time Tesla bull,
who's been in the stock for 10 years plus now,
obviously I'm, you know, have some bias towards saying that,
but I certainly think it beats what the skeptics were saying heading into this.
You know, many of the skeptics said that this wouldn't launch at all in June.
Many of the skeptics said if it did launch, it would launch with LIDAR, which it did not.
These are standard factory built model wise, and they are driving people around safely to their destinations, dropping them off. And there have been no incidents.
So, I mean, I don't know how
else to interpret that besides bullish. I wasn't surprised by the market response today. Stock shot
up 9%. I mean, yeah, obviously people are going to debate like what's the fundamental value.
I don't think Tesla stock has traded like that for five years. But yes, it's a good thing. I mean,
they have executed on this at a small scale. Now the question is, can they execute it on a larger scale?
If they expand service in Austin by the end of the year to the entire city and there are still no incidents.
That's going to be a huge, huge moment for the rest of the autonomous industry.
And something that sort of went quietly by over the weekend, or I think it maybe came out last week, but it was Waymo's paper on this topic,
where they were discussing their views on autonomous training in the future. And
they didn't directly make the concession, but in the abstract of the paper at the very end,
they said, we believe with enough accelerated compute, there may be a scenario where pure vision-based systems may be able to operate autonomously.
Waymo has never said that before.
And now their research team, I don't know if it's a coincidence, you know, big coincidence, but at the introduction of Tesla's robo-taxi service, their research team now suddenly has come to this realization.
That's kind of like cheeky a little bit.
The fact that they're dropping this paper now, now that Tesla is literally showing them, hey, look, you don't need LIDAR.
We're doing it without LIDAR.
So I don't know.
We'll see.
Obviously, they have to execute at scale.
But the implications for the proof of concept of what they've done here are enormous.
I've said this before, but if this can be extrapolated to other modes of transportation where you need nothing besides cameras for vehicles to operate autonomously, that is revolutionary. Like, the total addressable market for that is you can't even quantify it.
It's every mode of transportation on Earth, every vehicle, every plane, ship, car.
Now, is that going to happen tomorrow?
No, it'll take years, maybe even a decade for that to happen.
But this is the very early inflection of that, where if they can prove, hey guys, all you need is cameras and AI,
blows the top off the whole industry.
Yeah, I was watching a lot of those streams yesterday.
It's just mind boggling watching the cars drive itself.
And then even into the night with no issues.
I was watching some of the night streams last night.
Just little clips here and there.
Pretty interesting stuff.
Kevin Green, I saw you joined us up here.
I would love to see what's on your mind today.
We've talked about just about everything.
So no worries on what topic you want to hit on. but I'd love to hear what's on your mind.
Specifically, oil is my question for you more than anything.
How are you, first off?
Doing pretty good.
Doing pretty good.
I hope everybody's having a good day.
From the oil standpoint, I posted a couple of things over the weekend.
You guys can go back and check, right?
Like, you know, the trade hormones thing, could it still be a raise?
I don't think it would be.
Could it still be mined?
It could.
But without any type of significant disruption in logistics, it just seems hard for a crew to actually, you know, break above the $80 level, let alone actually sustain for a fairly long time here so
um we did see that fade a very sharp fade and that's what i was saying i think was going to
be a pop and fade um and it literally did pop and then faded pretty much the whole way down
uh you know is it a little bit overdone from a technical standpoint? Probably. How do I say this? I'm not bullish on crude, but I would say that I feel like everybody's trying to was sitting in around 75 bucks, pretty decent fade.
Getting to around 67 ish seems like a little bit of a tougher fade.
So let's say trade at your own risk.
Same thing with energy stocks, you know, like everybody and their mother is talking about like XLE is going to rip and do all this.
It's like once again, it just seems like it's not really sustainable.
And it's not only just because of the geopolitical risk. You know, I like to look
at like the internals in the structure under the hood a little bit. And when you kind of look at
the positioning right now, especially when you're looking at producers, now producers, when they
are classified as that are the ones that are actually like hedging physical inventory, their
refiners, their exploration companies, what have
you. If you kind of look at their position, go back last 20 years, actually last what, up until
2008, right? One of the largest long positions for producers at this point here. You'd like to see,
if you are a bull, you'd like to see producers short, not go long, in my opinion, in certain respects.
When we had the Russia-Ukraine conflict, because that was actually very disruptive immediately, and we did see a restructuring of supply lines, that was a situation where you saw longs for producers getting hit into the market.
And that was really just to be able to hedge once price risk as well as delivery risk.
There wasn't really that much risk of that right now.
And so my thing is that going up, seeing this price kind of moving up, you would also think
that producers would kind of fade or try to sell into those higher prices to lock in higher
prices, right?
To also then improve or at least sustain current
margins. And I just don't think that we, one, had enough time for that to be able, for that
liquidity to be dried up because it kind of just started happening. And then two, I do believe
that retail, I don't want to say retail because I hate saying retail. I feel like those that might be passive observers of energy markets just in general
may have gotten a little bit ahead of themselves.
And so once again, it seemed like a little bit of a better fade, at least for now.
Something else can happen on the radar, but it seemed like it was a decent pop and fade type of setup.
And it looks like we do have that follow through.
A little bit tougher of a short, in my opinion, right now.
You probably could get it, but I would.
You probably could get it, but it's very tough.
Because even if you're trailing, you would have to have a pretty decent trailing stop on it.
Because it's still whipsawing like 50 cents in a matter of minutes.
So if you're talking about large contract,
if you're talking about the CL contract,
you're trading that straight up, 50 cents is 500 bucks.
So it's kind of like,
do you wanna have a dollar trailing on there, right?
Risk a thousand bucks for some downside.
It just makes it for a very choppy trade.
You could probably still sell some premium there,
still fairly expensive.
So that's kind of where I'm at You could probably still sell some premium there, still fairly expensive.
So that's kind of where I'm at when it comes to the energy stocks, the energy plays.
I just found that to be interesting.
Look, if everybody and their mother on your Twitter feed, and I hate saying it like this, but it's true.
If everybody and your mother is in their Twitter feed talking about $100, $120 oil, and you know that they like literally never talk about oil, there's some people that do.
And that I respect.
Josh Young, one of them.
Respect the hell out of him because he's got the fundamental research to back his stance. I always respect somebody that's actually got the fundamental research behind their calls, no matter if they're right or wrong.
At least they're getting an effort.
And I'm not saying that he's wrong.
I think he's got a longer term view, which I think I do agree with over time, just in
the near term, I don't.
But then there was others that were like, I never seen this person ever talk about oil
or anything.
And then now they're calling for $120 oil.
That's just usually suspect.
Look, energy markets are just commodities in general, how I look at them. You buy the commodities
and no one loves them and you sell them when everybody does love it. That's how you trade
commodities. As soon as oil hits to $77, $78 and everybody, their mother's talking about $100 oil,
it's probably when you need to fit it same thing with natural gas i think that the weekly
chart of natural gas actually is a pretty decent setup but once again like four dollars for natty
is very expensive from a fundamental standpoint so it's like hard so it's kind of like you still
gotta you still gotta try to fade natty at four dollars even though you don't want to get the
chart set up and it's it's a hard trade And it's like that for all the commodities out there, for the most part, right?
Outside of maybe live cattle,
which has been ripping people's faces off
for the last two or three years.
So that's where I'm at with that.
Utilities, I think, is actually very interesting.
The Oakland move to the downside here today.
I feel like there's actually a pretty decent scalp there,
but you got to be in and out with that particular trade.
Outside of that, man, I don't really have anything else that's like pressing or anything that's like, I don't know, a good setup, if you will.
I think it's just a good, oh, yeah, broad market standpoint.
I will say that I feel like this is a bullish event and not like, oh, we're going to see tensions cool.
I think this was actually a bullish event before we actually saw tensions cool.
Because one, I think it's actually going to be, it was going to be a pull forward for rate cuts, in my opinion.
cuts in my opinion people were freaking out about oil but at the end of the day fed cannot adjust
People were freaking out about oil.
But at the end of the day, Fed cannot adjust.
I mean unless we got to 130 140 barrel I don't think the fed was going to keep markets restricted
for something that's completely out of their control they did that back in the Russia Ukraine
conflict completely failed and probably delayed rate cuts by a whole year that's still my my stance
on that so I think and then also if we did get actually involved prolonged,
you would actually want to see more liquidity in the markets because of that event. So I thought
that was a pull forward. A couple of other things though, you have two Fed members, Waller and
Bowman talking about, you know, there could be a possibility in July. It seems like there are the
two dots on the dot plot that kind of had, I think it was 75 basis points priced in for this year.
So you start having that commentary.
Goolsby had some positive comments.
Let's say a little bit more dovish comments than what he's had in the past.
I think that's a positive.
You had the 20-day moving average being tested to the downside today,
fire stepping in, bullish engulfing candle on Friday's candle.
That's a positive right now.
You know, there's a lot here. And then you have the summer season, which is low volume,
low liquidity, good news could push prices higher. So I'm not usually like a man, I'm super bullish,
and I'm probably really not super bullish. But you have all the ingredients for continued follow-through barring any type of
massive you know re-rating of this geopolitical risk event that we have i think everything else
sets up for a pretty decent couple of days outside of credit default swaps which actually still kind
of inched up higher today that's like if i had to give a bear something to on. I don't like seeing CDS's continue to move higher
for a day like today,
but maybe that will subside by tomorrow.
Who knows?
That's pretty much my thoughts.
I think we're actually
in a bullish setup right now.
One of the first things I want to ask,
these Fed speakers, how many of them do you think are
pandering for a job opportunity in the coming 11 months is any of that factoring into this or do we
think oh this is actually their thoughts and their their dots yeah well both of them so waller i think
everybody knows that bowman just got put into a position. I think everybody kind of knows that as well. And then Goolsby, in my opinion, some people
like him, some people don't. Chicago Cat, so I like him. I feel like he's a realist and
he speaks to whatever the data that he has available. So I think he's speaking from the
heart because he kind of, let's say not like did a 180, but let's say like a 90 degree turn when it comes to his comments.
So I think that I take him as genuine. But the two. Yeah.
The Bowman and Waller definitely probably vying for a chair position.
We'll see. Well, you know, I don't. We'll see.
But yeah, I think some of it might be political.
You know, what's interesting and kind of funny about this is that, like, given the events that we have, because the markets and people and humans are so, you know, short sighted, is that like we're not even talking about trade deals anymore, which, you know, we haven't had any outside the UK.
more, which we haven't had any outside of the UK.
That deadline's coming up in like two weeks, I think.
Most likely, obviously, market's probably pricing in that we're going to kick that can
down the road.
So maybe the market gets a little bit more concerned, maybe something that fear comes
back into the market around trade talks.
But if you look at these events and you're like, excuse my language here, but I think this really kind of puts it in perspective what I'm talking about.
When you have a potential oh shit event, like the one we just had, and it could, once again, it can continue to ramp up. you could do as a for the as the us or any type of uh person that's in uh executive power right
now is to think that this thing's all said and done and clear and move on uh because you let
your guard down so i don't think that's a good thing at all uh because once again ironda still
have a lot of proxies and you know there's still a lot that they could probably do uh at least
impact the us uh maybe not long term do at least impact the U.S.
Maybe not long term, but at least impact the U.S.
But let's just say that, you know, cooler heads kind of do prevail here.
We kind of go from, oh, man, we just went from World War Three.
Now we're kind of worried about trade talks now.
Like, who cares about those trade talks?
We almost had a potential nuclear escalation.
You know, so you kind of move that tolerance level for some of these things as well, which, once again, I feel is actually bullish for the markets.
But is it political? Yes, it is. But all you need is the comments.
You need an event like today.
You consumers can sentiment and consumer confidence numbers to try to improve.
I think that's going to be the case.
You're going to PC on Friday. It's going to be the case. You're going to have PC on Friday.
It's going to be in the right direction.
Once again, it kind of sets you up for bull market.
I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if we actually do see all-time highs here
in the next like two or three trading sessions.
And I'm not trying to make that call, but we're pretty close to it.
And given the events and that buying pressure that we
had at the close here today, kind of seems like we might be nearing those levels here soon, very soon.
Yeah. And just jumping in here, the fact that we now have oil prices settling in lower. One of the
big concerns was that if we did see oil prices higher, and if that trickled through into gas prices,
it could lead to elevated inflation expectations. And a lot of the times, if you have inflated
expectations, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy in a lot of ways. So that was always a concern
on the Fed side. So the fact that we are now seeing this lower pricing here that seems to remove that risk
off of the table, which Jerome Powell pretty much said last week, he essentially said that
we are going to be able to look through this one-time price shock. Of course, if you had the
closure of the straighter of hummus and there was greater escalations there, that is the big risk.
But at this point,
that risk seems to be removed from the table here. And I think now we can start to look ahead
and see what happens with Trump's tax bill, how that makes its way through Congress. If there's
any deficit concerns there, 10-year yields closed lower today. They've been on this downward
trajectory that hasn't been a concern,
but we know how quickly these things can change. So if this Israel-Iran conflict is contained for
now, I think we will probably get back into a cycle of where we're starting to worry about
the things we used to worry about before possible World War III. And that includes, you know, deficit concerns, trade
tariffs, and all that other, you know, headlines that we've been getting over the past few weeks.
So that is what I think we're going to continue to see is just a return to what we were wondering
before. And we're not going to get the answers to that anytime soon. But I do think at some point
this summer, we'll at least have a clearer picture of what's ahead. And I think the Fed will as well. And we know that most
markets, most FOMC officials, they're calling for those two rate cuts by the end of the year.
Markets are pricing in a cut in September, a cut in December. But we're continuing to monitor that
data and see if anything changes on that front that would force the Fed to either stay on hold for longer or potentially cut rates sooner.
Yeah. And just to talk about the straight few her moves real quick, because like, yes, that was a concern. But that's like another like fade, in my opinion, because has it ever been fully like locked down? No. Has it had there
been attempts? Yes, there has. Right. And the last time that that happened is like in 88.
Right. And then the U.S. had this Operation Prey Mantis. I think we had some correlation
fighters with us as well that were helping us out. And we destroyed the naval fleet for Iran in a day,
right? Like, given the escalation that we're seeing right now, they obviously do not have
any type of real air defense that is out there. They probably do have a naval fleet that is
definitely formidable, but they got a lot of frigates and stuff like that. But like, at the
end of the day, that was one of those things that you could also kind of look at the situation and
say, all right, I mean, you're getting all of your nuke sites, which are supposed to be your prize assets are getting like bombed hell.
You can't protect Tehran. Are you going to really be able to lock down straight for a very long time?
I don't think so. Not without partners to be involved.
and I just once again it just seemed like there's a risk that's what being priced in but the
likelihood of that being actually closed down for a prolonged period of time just doesn't seem
doesn't seem highly likely even if we do see this happen again you know but do you do you need to
shut it down with the way insurance works where if you're hitting one unknown one a week how much
is that going to end up lowering
stuff and i guess if you get to the point of hey we really need to go through this more companies
might take that gamble but you don't also necessarily need to fully shut it down to
um discourage people now from going through it yeah i think you do for the straight over moves
yeah like you have to right like? It's a major throwback.
I mean, the U.S. probably wouldn't let them do that functionally.
Well, it wouldn't really impact the U.S. as much.
I mean, I think that was also another – that was also something that was really being priced in.
That would really impact us and our oil flows.
Our oil flows really don't go through the straight-over moves at all.
Maybe if you're talking about LNG, yes, but oil, not so much.
Who's it going to really impact?
It's going to impact China, Russia, India, it's going to impact damn near half of the allies that Iran has.
So that's one thing.
And you're going to obviously have some impacts when it comes to some other countries, some Western countries that will be impacted.
But the thing is, it's not just going to hit us, you start pissing a lot of people off.
And so everybody then usually comes to the table and says, hey, we got to handle this, because
there's definitely an issue when it comes to sovereignty on land. But when you start talking
about maritime, it's a completely different beast and how people and how countries actually view it. So yeah, I still think it's a very low likelihood that it would have lasted for that long. Could
you see maybe a standoff for a week or so? Yes. Could that impact oil prices? It could.
But what's the likelihood of it being shut down for months? I don't think it's that likely. The
biggest risk that you have are these mines that you put at the bottom of the sea floor
that basically explode anytime there's a tank or a ship that's right above it.
Not one of these mines that you actually see, like those big balls that you actually see,
but the ones that are under underwater. Those are harder to actually try to demine, if you will.
But at the end of the day, it doesn't seem like from the OSINT side, the open source intelligence
side, and even we would actually probably have word of this coming from the OSINT side, the open source intelligence side, and even we would
actually probably have word of this coming from the White House here that that activity was
actually taking place. So I still feel like you call that bluff until you see otherwise. And we've
seen this type of operation in the past and Iran has been dealt with fairly quickly. And it seems
like if I had to put at least a couple of countries
in on an operation like that, definitely the UK, we already had the naval ships pretty much in
place to be able to help out. So let's say that this thing, old thing is over, right? We're kind
of doing an after action report. But at the end of the day, if it does happen again, it's all about
probabilities when you trade.
And it seems like that probability, even though it could have a small, short-term disruption,
doesn't seem like it would be a long-term disruption, in my opinion.
There's way too many other parties involved that are friends with Iran that still would be impacted,
would be impacted, even if you slow those flows.
even if you slow those flows.
I don't know what will happen here, but it was interesting to me that the first reaction
after this Iran retaliation was a step towards peace and ending it as opposed to the other
way around.
Soleimani.
So who knows if that was actually last.
When we took out Soleimani the first time around, Trump 1.0, same thing happened, right? They want to be able to show that they responded. I mean, even with the report, they're talking about they completely destroyed the base.
We talked about that they matched as many missiles that we shot. I mean, we use a boatload of missiles throughout that whole operation. So I think they sent, what, five or six over?
So I think they sent, what, five or six over. But, you know, they're trying to project to their own people like, hey, we dealt with this situation.
We responded. And that's just this is not outside of the norm.
I mean, the New York Times report basically said that Carter not only helped Iran plan it, but then told us about the plan and had us evacuate.
it, but then told us about the plan and had us evacuate, right? I'll give you another one too,
just real quick. And I know I'm hogging this thing, but let me throw my conspiracy tinfoil hat on,
right? If you look at that Fordo nuclear facility, the amount of trucks that were at that bad boy
the day before it was brought down and the fact that we still went and hit on that Saturday,
down in the fact that we still went and hit on that Saturday.
No one's talking about the trucks and the activity that was at that nuclear facility
beforehand, and then no one knows where those damn trucks are, also kind of tells you maybe
that we did the signaling as well.
I mean, this is kind of what happens when you have propaganda.
I'm not saying that we did do that, but it's kind of like, it's not outside of the norm
for us to say, hey, we need a symbolic gesture to take this thing down.
We're giving you a warning that we're striking this thing.
And then infrastructure has moved out, just like we moved out.
Even the air bases that were being targeted, I believe we evacuated like 90 percent of the infrastructure and people that were there.
Like there weren't anybody there. So sometimes these things happen.
I think it's more symbolic in nature than anything.
And I think this party moves on. Your biggest wild card is Israel.
And I think that's still going to be a problem because they're 90% of the way there of trying
to finish what they believe is a problem. I'm not even trying to get into the politics of it.
Do you stop at 90%? I don't know. I don't know if maybe not Yahoo is willing to do that.
It doesn't seem like President Trump is willing to try to put any more assets in a play here.
But that I just wanted to highlight is not outside of the norm for for these types of conflicts.
And I would not be surprised once again that that nuclear facility, at least majority of that, not the infrastructure,
that that nuclear facility, at least majority of that, not the infrastructure,
but at least the majority of that uranium that was enriched was moved out beforehand.
Just given the satellite imagery that's literally on Twitter everywhere.
It just seems odd and fitting at the same time.
I guess that's the biggest question left, right, is what's next.
It doesn't seem like Israel wants to stop here.
It doesn't seem like their goals have been achieved.
But I guess the lack of escalation today is a decent sign in the bigger scheme of things.
I don't know.
The other interesting thing, Kevin, I know you look at this quite often. I mentioned this a little bit earlier in the space is something as simple, you know,
sometimes when you look at the S&P, you look at something as simple as just a 20-day moving
average, first touch of it in two months. And here we have a lot of buyers stepping in and
also the news timing out with it. True. I think E-Mini S&p futures violated that 20-day moving average over the last three
trading sessions if i'm not mistaken i'm not by my my desk you can call me a liar from if i'm wrong
they did the yes yes yeah and actually the low of day is going to be almost exactly the 200 day
believe it or not the low from last night okay. Okay. Yeah. So, I mean, we've had it violated
overnight, but today's the first session that it's actually been tested and you had some buyers
stepping in. I like the candle structure there. Could it be a fake out? It could be. I'm just
trying to figure out what would be the cause for the sell-off there. But yeah, you're right. I mean,
sometimes you just go back to the basics and sometimes the basics are for me, it's price, volume, right?
Open interest if you're looking at futures and the environment that we're in.
And I think that we did have a pretty decent amount of potential risk being taken off, being priced out right now.
Anything can happen. If we can continue to go down that road.
happen. I mean, if we can continue to go down that road, I'm not saying like, I just feel like
we're close enough here. And with that valuing activity towards the end of the day, I mean,
that was some pretty decent volume pressure to the upside going into the close. That's kind of
a signal that a continuation might be here on the horizon for the S&P 500. We're kind of close
to the all-time highs here.
Going back to the other open question that we were talking about, this is kind of, in my opinion,
one of the worst coups that I've seen actually taking place. And that's because half of it's actually happening on Twitter here. I think that Israel wants to see a regime change. And
unfortunately, the person that they're sponsoring or that they want to have in power is
somebody that's probably lived in the united states for a whole boatload of time um right the
former shaw's yeah so so i think that's going to be a hard sell for those in in the country here
and you're going to have to find somebody else to be able to lead uh the reason why i also kind
of bring that up once you start seeing jails and prisons starting to be open or attempted to be open
that's usually like that final sign right because that's where you want to see like uprisings in
the streets and things of that nature same thing happened in syria happens to the african nations
all the time um when these events happen here so i still feel like israel wants to see regime change
and i think president trump's probably the only thing stopping that.
And maybe that was a concession today.
Maybe we stopped hearing about that type of rhetoric today, at least from the U.S.
Who knows?
And I think that would be the sign that this thing is trying to get close to an end.
But we'll see.
Who knows?
New political risk.
You can't really.
Because Trump just the other day was blatantly using the term regime change.
Yeah, yesterday. Not today.
And we know the U.S. has a great track record on regime change.
That's sarcasm, obviously.
Right. No, I mean, but we do this a lot, right?
But I feel like if you kind of look at the past and those that have been effective or at least stick for more than like a year, usually have somebody that's lived in the United States for a fairly long time for the majority of their lives, grew up here to go back to Iran and then be installed.
That would be a really crazy twist.
We'll see unless they find somebody else.
But I feel like that's what they want.
I feel like they want to be able to have regime change.
And they're hitting all the right sort.
They're hitting all the right sites.
Militarily, they're hitting all the right sort they're hitting all the right sites militarily they're doing all the right things but if you don't have anybody to lead
the effort with from within then it's uh you bring destabilization actually that's where it gets a
little bit like dangerous that's when you start having a libya type of uh of a country it's the
same thing that happened uh in libya with q Gaddafi. We're going down completely a different rabbit hole, so my bad here.
I'm going to sit in the background. I'd love to hear somebody else's thoughts.
I was just going to keep grilling you, honestly,
for the next 15 minutes. If no one has anything to say,
then by all means, I don't want to kind of hog this in the geopolitical
space.
Well, actually, both you and Ali were kind of talking about the Fed a little bit there.
I heard the term mercy cut earlier.
It was one of the first times I've heard that in a while, I guess.
I saw the rate cut on the FedWatch tool move slightly.
It's still 77% of a hold in July, but they were trickling down. We're hearing these Fed speakers come out and sound a little bit more dovish. What are the chances with all
this stuff, the oil maybe not being a big concern? Where do the dominoes fall on the rate cut stuff
right now? I'd love to hear your and Ali both perspectives on this. And if we do get a cut in
July, how would the market react to that? Well, so let me ask you that question or those that are
in the audience, if you want to put a comment in there, how much more bullish would you be?
How much capital are you willing to put to work because you're going to recut in July rather than
September? I don't feel like it's a big game changer. I think the market, institutional money knows that rate cuts are going to be on the horizon here. And you usually will set up your portfolio, deploy capital before
that event happens. That's usually what you want to do, right? You want to buy low, want to buy
below before something. And we talked about that with commodities. In my opinion, even if you get
a July cut, does that really make the market that much more uber bullish?
I don't think so.
That's me, though.
I might be wrong.
Does it also kind of send the wrong signal?
Do you cut rates?
If we have everything and the economic data kind of stays the same from where it's at right now, a month later, it stays exactly the same.
Nothing changes.
Inflation doesn't change.
Unemployment doesn't change.
Nothing changes. But we see a rate cut. Does that give you confidence? Does that give you
confidence? Or is that like, oh, wait, why are you accelerating this if nothing materially changed
or improved? I don't think it does. But I don't think it also matters. I think if you're bullish
now because you feel like rate cuts are going to be on the horizon, it shouldn't matter to you if it's July or September because they're definitely coming. And if they're not, if they're not on the horizon and to continue to get pushed back, it's probably getting pushed back because of stagflationary fears more than any.
more than any, because you can make the case, yeah, on the inflation front, there's probably
some areas that are going to be sticky. You will, and here's going to be the curveball,
and this is why I say I would discount July, because CPI will come in hot for this month,
for this month, for this month's report, because before the geopolitical risk events,
oil was still up 9%.
Diesel prices were still up 9.5%. Gasoline prices were up at least 7.5% on a retail basis,
even a little bit more depending on the region. Now, they're a little bit weird now how they
judge energy prices. I think they're only taking them, and Ellie, correct me if I'm wrong, but I
think they're only taking national averages. And I don't think that they're weighting them based on geographic regions anymore.
I know there's a couple of adjustments with CPI that has occurred here over the last couple of months.
But there is still already kind of some pricing pressures to the upside happening for this month already.
When I say this month, I mean happening in May, which will be reflected in the May report,
which will be released in June. Cleveland Feds already has that priced out if you look at their
expectations. So we will actually see a re-rating higher of inflation. So that being the case,
once again, three weeks from now, next Fed meeting four weeks from now, you're going to have slightly higher month over month, as well as potentially an intake and year over year inflation for at least headline and probably for PCE.
Nothing materially changes. So do you cut at that point? I feel like that's a tough sell.
That's a tough sell. That's how I kind of look at it. But if you think that they're going to be on the horizon, which I do believe so, then you probably want to get ahead of that and look for assets that you feel like we're going to be able to perform in that type of environment rather than sitting back and waiting.
So, in my opinion, I used to, I don't do that anymore.
In my opinion, it's like if you're going to deploy capital, then deploy capital.
The trend of something occurring is actually going to be on the horizon here, and you know it's going to happen, then deploy capital.
I don't see how you get much more bullish because you have 25 basis points or 75 basis points this year compared to 25 basis points in the grand scheme of things. The 25 basis points really is, in my opinion, kind of minuscule, maybe more symbolic in
nature than anything that actually drives liquidity in the market or eases financial conditions.
Sorry.
No, I was just going to say, I think Jerome Powell has been very good at telegraphing
where he thinks the Fed's next
move is going to be. And I do think markets would be, they probably would go up. I'm not going to
lie if we got a rate cut, but I also think investors would be a little bit confused just
because of how clear Jerome Powell has been that the Fed is in a comfortable position, that they are able to continue to wait.
And again, we have to see how a lot of that July, August data comes out at that point. And I think
we're going to learn a lot at Jackson Hole. I think that's always a market moving event, but I think
this year in particular, it's going to be a really important time, especially if that September cut
continues to get priced in by
markets. We'll probably have a pretty good sense at Jackson Hole, how Jerome Powell is talking,
whether he sounds a little bit more dovish if we're on that trajectory. So yeah, I mean,
I just cannot foresee a world where we get that cut. Also, I mean, the Fed was generally more
hawkish in the projections this
time around than they were in March. Eight officials think there's going to be two cuts,
but seven officials think we're going to remain on hold. And that is an increase
from the four officials that thought we would be on hold in March. So there seems to be some more
division within the Fed itself. There's a divergence of opinions. Jerome Powell was
asked directly about this in his
post-decision press conference. And he did say, we have to continue to wait and see more of that data.
And I don't think that we're going to have a clear and obvious answer before that July meeting. So I
just don't think it's realistic to think that we could see a cut by then. And if you do, once again,
let's go back to the inflationary picture. I agree with you, by the way. Let's go back to the inflationary picture. Let's say the Cleveland Fed's right, and they do cut in the event that we do have CPI kind of having a marginal uptick. Who's to say that 10 years and 30s actually don't re-rate higher? I mean, we've seen that before. The first cut, 10-year yields and longer duration yields went
higher, right? I feel like if you go into an event knowing that the market's seeing that you
have higher inflation, that might only just be near term. Okay. I'm not saying like, oh man,
this is the low for inflation. We're going back to 6%. I don't think that's the case,
but I feel like it's a wrong, it does give you a little
bit of a mixed signal, one, and then two, it's not going to be a good look.
Now, let's say the CPI does beat and it comes in really light.
Yeah, by all means, but you could have a situation where we cut and longer into the curve calls
as the Fed's bluff again. I mean, we saw that before. It could happen again. And, you know,
the Fed's bluff again.
I mean, we saw that before.
It could happen again.
a lot of just, you know, Fed can only impact the front end of the curve, can impact the longer end
of the curve. So got to be careful what you wish for. And I feel like we've waited for this long,
like, let's just do it the right way, rather than trying to rush something because of
rather than trying to rush something because of politics or whatever.
I don't think that you're seeing enough stress in the housing market right now to learn a cut.
I mean, the housing data doesn't look that great,
but I don't think it's fallen off a complete cliff yet where you're like,
oh my God, we have a crisis here that you need to have an emergency cut.
Or I wouldn't say emergency cut, but you need to cut right now.
I feel like it just went.
The home sales data was actually solid this morning, wasn't it?
Yeah, but I mean, have you seen month-over-month comps?
I mean, we got some pretty low bars going into this.
It's back and forth.
Yeah, we had some pretty low bars coming into this housing data
that we're going to have coming out over the next, well, this week and next week.
I mean, I think pending home sales last month uh i'm gonna
say that that's wrong i believe pending home sales what dropped 9.9 percent month over month something
crazy like that so like month over month prints for pretty much all the housing data in my opinion
are gonna look probably a lot more encouraging but you still gotta look at the long term but i
don't think there's a crisis there to warrant it. But I just feel,
I feel like if you have a hot CPI print and you cut and you cut,
I don't think that's going to end well when it comes to long iteration
yields.
And I think that will also then impact equities.
So I feel like you just hold on for now.
You get it,
you get it.
You don't,
you know,
I feel like you trade,
you trade,
like you get two cuts this year,
you get a bonus one for whatever. Then that's icing the cake but i wouldn't count on it are any other macro points that are on either of you guys's radar when we
uh as we go through this week or upcoming like i know one that's been talked about a lot is the gdp gdp and pce on friday yeah the
the gdp and then powell is also powell is testifying in front of congress tomorrow and
wednesday although that's normally just political pandering for multiple hours there might be one or
two actual statements in there but you'll have to listen through a lot of politics so a couple one event each day pretty much oh yeah and that gdp like the the rolling piece of it are i guess they're already looking
ahead of that and factoring that in when i when i look at the like month over month what they're
projecting but uh you just wonder if the headline risk is there on that at all or if people are like
oh yeah let's you know not worried about middle now. Let's go back to paying attention to data.
Yeah, I think data is always important.
And I do think that Powell's testimony is going to be important, too.
I just think from here on out, especially with rate cuts so top of mind and how we are still penciling in those two cuts.
Anytime Powell speaks, it's going to be closely scrutinized,
every single word. Again, he's very good at telegraphing and giving clues into what the Fed
is thinking. And investors know this at this point. So I do think that two-day testimony is
going to be closely watched. And yeah, I mean, GDP, third revision, we pretty much know there
was that pull forward effect. I think PCE on Friday,
that's going to be the big one to watch here, probably is going to come in solid considering
we've seen solid CPI prints. And yeah, I mean, solid data is encouraging. And it wasn't just
the Iran developments that I think move markets today. I also think you've got solid
manufacturing PMIs around 10 a.m. today, and that lifted stocks a little bit in earlier trading,
boosted some of that sentiment. So good data is never going to be a bad thing. So I think that's
going to be a big focus point for investors, especially as we head deeper and deeper
into the summer months. But beyond
inflation, GDP, I think unemployment is super, super important. And those job reports that we
are going to continue to get through the summer, all eyes are going to be on them because they've
been very solid so far. But Powell has made it very clear that if we see a deterioration in the
labor market, that could
potentially be the thing that forces the Fed to act. Now, if they do act at that point, they'd be
cutting for bad news, right? Not good news on the inflation front. So for me, I think the labor side
of the equation has maybe not been underreported, but has been maybe a bit overshadowed by inflation and tariffs and trade, but the labor side,
that needs to be solid in order for the Fed's plan to work. And if it's not, they're going to
have to change course. So I think continuing to watch those unemployment numbers, jobless claims
can give you a bit of a clue there, but they've been pretty stable so far. That is one data set that I'm constantly focused on.
Yeah, I would say GDP, don't get your hopes.
It's the final revision.
I think the median for the adjustment is like 0.1%.
So I think it's safe to say that we will have a contracting,
you know, first quarter,
and it seems like we're going to have a booming second quarter,
which I feel like we just discount GDP, unfortunately,
for the next couple of quarters because of the variability that we have.
So I wouldn't get too excited about GDP.
PCE, I think, is going to be a big one.
Powell's testimony.
I just have the sneaking suspicion that you will see more
political attacks and maybe try to agitate him a little more on party lines than usual,
just given how the president's really, you know, one tweet and kind of like insinuating
you're going to fire him, you know, everything's all good. But, you know, now he's kind of like
hitting him. He's hitting them several
different times. And I think that especially on the House side, those that probably want to be
on the president's good side or come to his defense, maybe might act out a little bit more
or may have, you know, I don't know, I think it might just be a little bit more rambunctious.
So he's usually a measured guy. Let's see if he's going to be able to hold up.
But I'm looking at that these testimonies
will get a lot more politically contentious
than what we've seen in the past.
I don't think that's going to really rile markets,
but that might be a spectacle that we might want to watch.
I mean, I'll have the popcorn ready for sure.
Too late, pal.
Talking in front of Congress.
Oh, yeah.
There will be a few true social posts coming out this week about pal.
I don't doubt that one bit, especially as soon as he's on the stage in there in Congress.
We are coming towards the top of the hour.
We have the Stock Picks for the Week show
coming up right after this,
but I want to give a chance
if anybody has any final thoughts
to leave with the audience.
Allie, thanks for joining today.
Anything on your mind to leave with us today
on the way out?
No, I think, you know,
we hit a lot of different things,
but ultimately it was a good markets day.
And this just, you know,
I saw a post on X or something about how it was a good markets day. And this just, you know, I saw a post on X or something
about how it was good. We didn't have 24 hour trading this weekend because you would have had
a lot of maybe panic selling. And right now you saw stocks and in the green oils down, like,
you know, nothing ever happened. We're just right back to where we started. So it just goes to show
how there can often be this disconnect between the human condition, human nature to really focus on
the present current headlines. And then the markets are always forward looking and looking
at all the different outcomes there. And we're obviously continuing to monitor the Israel-Aran
situation. But for now, that risk, at least from the market perspective,
largely seems to be contained. Appreciate that, Ali. Great having you on. Looking forward to having you on each Monday going forward. Excited for that. KG, any thoughts from you? Stay ahead.
I think- The number goes up. No, I think, well, from a tactical standpoint, if you're looking for an
overnight setup, I do believe that there could be a little bit of a retracement trade overnight for
crude. So that's what I'm looking at there. And then I will say the only sector that I feel
looks a little bit weak technically on the weekly, even though it's kind of holding up
the 20 period moving average is financials.
So keep your eye out on that one. But I agree. I think it was a good market breath today. Good close.
Hopefully you see some follow through. Cooler heads prevail.
And hopefully hitting all time highs before 4th of July.
So that's all I got. Appreciate you guys having me on.
That would be the most American thing, right? New all time highs. Appreciate you guys having me on. That would be
the most American thing, right?
New all-time highs.
Go ahead, Evan.
Little story. Starbucks reportedly
considering selling its full
sale of its China business.
Chinese media
reporting that one. Also,
follow the speakers. I appreciate everyone
that they host this space.
We're live every single Monday through Thursday,
3 to 5 p.m. Eastern at least.
Shout out to everyone else.
Let me get another thing open up.
I will say, I pinned a post up in the nest above.
I'm starting to do this.
We'll see how it goes.
But I made a little calendar for the week
of all the big Catalyst watch and earnings
and all that stuff.
I'm going to continuously update it.
So if people like it, I'll continue to do it.
But check that tweet up in the notes.
Peace.
Thanks guys.
Thanks everyone.
Appreciate you for joining in.
Yeah.
Thanks,
Allie,
Kevin,
stock talk,
Evan,
of course,
co-hosting this.
Yeah,
that space right now.
It sounds,
it sounds like you don't know.
I am,
shutting this down,
telling everyone to go straight over to Wolf Financial.
We'll see you over there. Evan. I need a little, I need a little more to see everyone to go straight over to Wolf Financial. We'll see you over there. Evan.
I need a little more. We'll see you next time.
Evan, second place. We'll see you there.
See you guys. Thank you.
