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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: June 11, 2025 Duration: 2:50:57Space Recording
Short Summary
Market trends indicate cautious optimism as CPI data shows inflation easing, while ongoing trade tensions with China and upcoming earnings reports keep investors alert. Key stocks like Palantir and Starbucks hit new highs, reflecting strong growth potential.
Full Transcription
you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you what is up everybody how are we doing you're good I got this for the whole thing this should be
another interesting day on the spaces we have some interesting stock moves happening let me
quickly pull up my portfolio to see where everything is going some of the names this
morning we're a little bit greener than they are net right now most of the mag 7 is red right now
besides Microsoft when I was looking at this morning Microsoft is pretty much one of the MAG-7 is red right now, besides Microsoft. When I was looking at this morning,
Microsoft was pretty much one of the lone red MAG-7 names and everything else was green,
and we played a little bit of a swapperoo here.
Tesla's been obviously one that's been getting a lot of eyeballs recently
with Elon Musk and Trump, and that name was up to 3%.
Now it's down about 0.1% as we're heading into Power Hour here.
Robinhood with a decent move around 75.
We had names like Palantir and Microsoft and Visa and MasterCard,
all hitting new all-time highs.
S&P 500, QQQ within 2% to 3% as well.
So although today kind of turned into a little bit of a downwards day,
which maybe chopped downwards,
you know, we still are within striking distance of those all time highs. We did get
inflation data come out this morning. CPI came in slightly below expectations. I'd be curious
on what PPI and initial jobless claims and what everyone is taking away there. But the inflation
data wasn't anything too crazy. It was kind of close to what Wall Street was expecting. And
therefore, I don't think it ended up moving the markets too aggressively either. We also had
a 10-year bond auction. We have a 30-year tomorrow. So a lot to look out for, even though we maybe
don't have as many earnings up here. This very moment, also one thing I'll note, and then I'll
throw it over to Mike and then some of our other speakers. We got Wolfie and Urkel down below too,
logical here. The Fed presence. The Fed is currently in a blackout window. There are no Fed presidents speaking this week.
No FOMC speakers as their meeting is next week. And about the week, two weeks before that meeting,
they tend to go into a blackout period where no Fed presidents speak. So that's why you're not
hearing anything from that direction. That is a lot of rambling from me there. Let's kick us off
into it. We already got a hundred of you going down and listening. If there's any stocks or anything you want us to cover, feel
free to throw that down in the Spaces chat right now below. It's a purple one in the
bottom right of your screen, but let's kick off into it. Mr. Options. Mike, how are you
doing today this afternoon?
Hey, Evan. I'm doing good. And yourself?
I am doing well. I'm doing well. It's an interesting time, interesting days.
I'm on kind of like a half vacation here is what we'll call it.
I'm still watching.
Someplace good?
Yeah, Jersey Shore.
Jersey Shore.
Not great.
Not horrible. Good time.
You're in my backyard. How come we never get together?
We need to meet one of these days.
Yeah.
No, I'm definitely down.
Especially in New York City, it's a nice, easy time.
But just hanging out on the Jersey Shore.
Enjoy. It's a beautiful day to be down there. It's a nice, easy time. But just hanging out on the Jersey Shore. Enjoy.
It's a beautiful day to be down there.
It's a nice day out here, finally.
Well, I'm watching some stocks.
I'm inside.
I'm talking about the markets here.
All right.
So let's talk.
What is outside, question mark?
Let's talk.
The CPI report was a good report.
So let's just throw that aside.
We don't need to talk about that anymore.
We get PPI tomorrow.
Let's talk this china
whatever the excuse my language whatever the they want to call it it really is in my opinion
and nothing and i i think this is just the market is just not happy with that
there nothing's changed you're keeping a 55 tariff on china they're keeping 10 on us um
the rare earth minerals they're gonna start
shipping them but they can cut it off it's only for six months this sounds
like not a trade deal as it's trying to be worked at or a framework it sounds
more like just a continued sensation of hostilities and the markets reacting to
that and if you're a company that does a lot of business in China all right in
terms of either you do a lot of business selling there or you do a lot of
business importing from there, you know, i.e. Apple, Walmart, any of the chip manufacturers,
right? This is not good news for you. This is really not good news for you. And this is
not what you want to hear. So the market's kind of trying to come with terms with this. And it's
kind of like, I don't know what to do with this today. And so you have a down day and an uptrend. And I think that's how you have to look at today.
You have a downtrend and up day. We put a new range high in as we continue to climb back
towards all-time highs. And we come down quite a bit here. We're near the lows of the day. We're
still above the eight day and on the indexes, no damage has been done. That said, there were names
that were trading today. and if you're paid attention
there were things to do so i came into tesla overnight long with some calls and next week's
350s i'd sold them on the open made some nice money hood gave a nice trade today hood woke back
up shot up didn't quite make an all-time high but nice big move there palantir made a new all-time
high that gave a nice trade today i didn't catch it microsoft hit new all-time high. That gave a nice trade today. I didn't catch it.
Microsoft hit an all-time high today. Shop had a nice breakout move today. CMG is breaking out
today as well. Nice move there. Starbucks has had a big move. There is, under the covers,
there are names that are moving. And yep, it's a down day in the market. Amazon's down. Google,
And, yep, it's a down day in the market. Amazon's down. Google, Apple, Meta all weaker today. Coins on the lows. But, you know, while crypto is near the highs, there's a weird disconnect going on there.
But overall, the market is holding in just fine. It's a down day and an uptrend. And, you know, I think the market's looking at this China deal and saying, what does this mean for everything else? We're down to less than four
weeks until the 90-day extension expires. Lutnik came on and spoke. The market does not like him.
They don't want to hear from him. I mean, the administration hasn't figured this out yet.
And he came on saying, this is a great deal. The first of many, we're going to get rapid-fire
deals next week and the next week. He can keep saying stuff like this.
The market doesn't believe him.
Trump came on and spoke.
Let's talk about him real quick.
First of all, looks like him and Trump actually had a conversation.
Trump was consolatory towards Trump was consolatory towards Musk, Musk to him.
And that, at least for the moment, seems to be put to bed.
Tesla's pulling back. Why? Because, well, it had a nice move off of this.
The actual drive, the actual robo-taxi service doesn't start until June 22nd.
So while there are a couple cars, and when I say a couple, I mean a handful, a few,
driving around Austin, they are passenger-less, that will service will start on june 22nd
according to musk today so you know that was a good thing musk then went and bashed the fed some
more i mean not musk trump bashed the fed some more because he wants rates down now a full point
he's not going to get it when no one's a fed blackout um nobody expects the fed to cut next
week and you know he's just not going to help they're not going to help him that way that's
not their mandate so you know the market is just not going to help. They're not going to help him that way. That's not their mandate.
So, you know, the market is looking for a catalyst.
It's not finding one.
So it's grinding up slowly. It's back and forth, but it's not, you know, we want it to move rapidly to that all-time high.
It's just not doing it.
But overall, I think the market feels fine.
It feels fine.
The semis, after leading the last couple of days, getting a little bit of a pullback.
getting a little bit of a pullback.
NVIDIA getting hit hard today as it looks like much of the restrictions
in this trade deal.
As everybody expected, there were restrictions lifted for China.
That didn't happen.
That's basically it.
That's where I'm at.
An eventful day.
A lot of stuff going on from very different directions and
you know who knows if we're going to look back on this and anything actually ever even happened
exactly in one of those markets obviously Mike feel free to jump back in on the part of the
conversation I want to throw it over to Brett I know you were on yesterday Brett and we didn't
get the chance to go over to you and I'm excited to hear what you have to say what you were watching
on the market yesterday just stuff going on We're in a very interesting headline-driven market.
Yeah, definitely in an interesting market at the moment.
We have, at this point, call it a month before earnings really start to pick back up.
And we have kind of the Fed next week.
And I don't know, it's kind of like, to me, it's sort of a lull period in that sense,
where it's just kind of a lot of macro related, you know, just typical inflation reports and jobs reports and things of that nature.
But, you know, it's going to kind of sit, I think, with trade. It's sort of, as Mike was alluding to, and kind of the power that these tweets or tirades, whatever you want to call them, have the potential to move markets. And, you know, we're going to need to start seeing more progress on that front.
You're starting to see some trade deals come together.
And as the market dissects them, they're going to decide whether they like the deals or they
won't.
But overall, I mean, I think it does put investors, especially kind of more active investors,
like a lot of people on these calls, it does put us in sort of a trickier spot when it comes to navigating it, I think.
You know, we've come up pretty quick off the lows, like SPXs, S&P sitting at 6K.
We were trading like almost 4,800 just over two months ago.
Like, that's a huge move.
Granted, it was a huge decline that that went into it so
it's been a very you know impressive v-shaped recovery but now we're just kind of sitting
within that like two to three percent off the record highs i think if you've been long for a
bulk of this and again it really depends on your time frame if you're someone who's measuring in
months quarters and years maybe it's not so important. But if you're someone who's going days and weeks, I think you do have to start thinking about, you know, my risk reward
has shifted quite a bit over the last four weeks, the last eight weeks and 10 weeks.
And I see that even in my own, you know, my own approach to markets, like could markets go up to
new highs? Of course, they go up to new highs. We're so close to them, it wouldn't be weird to
me or surprising to me if we got there, especially with some of the options expirations we have
coming up next week and then the end of quarter ones at the end of the month. But outside of that,
we need to have a lot more clarity on sort of the bigger picture in terms of earnings and in
terms of trade and how that's going to affect things
moving forward. I know Mike touched on the CPI report this morning, and that number was
fine. I think it's another sigh of relief, I think, is kind of the way I interpreted
it as tariffs have still not had this huge inflationary effect on markets. I don't know
how that's going to affect the Fed
next week. It'd be very interesting to hear Powell's thoughts on the matter. But I just think
we need to have a little bit more clarity in terms of how tariffs are going to affect earnings.
So far, the expectations are it's going to be, not surprising, but a negative for Q2 and Q3,
a negative effect. But if that is just a sort of
temporary one or two quarter thing, and these trade deals come to fruition, and markets are
forward looking. So I think we can move past that pretty quickly. But if we don't get the deals and
the impact to earnings is more than two quarters, I think that's when things could, you know, we
could see more turbulence again. But as we stand right now, you know, it's been pretty smooth sailing.
The markets have done incredibly well.
But I don't know.
Now we're kind of coming back into those highs.
I appreciate that, Brett.
I'm going to keep going around in the order.
And obviously, guys, these conversations are best when we're kind of talking,
having some good conversations.
So feel free to jump in on points.
Hey, Evan, real quick.
I'm not sure if you're sending me requests or not, but I'm already a speaker.
I don't know if it's the app that's glitching.
No, I did send you a request.
It shows you as a listener, so I sent it away.
We got Monitib up here on that one.
Just wanted to make sure that you – because maybe there's other people as well.
I wasn't going to come to you, probably, if that's what that was.
So it's good to know.
I do believe Logical is the next person up here on this one.
Yeah.
Pretty cool day.
You know, I think having a consolidation day is fine.
You know, if you look at the IWM chart, because I think that's what all eyes have been on,
people are talking about small cap rally.
The setup going into today was, in my view, too good to be true.
And I was constantly, I'm a little concerned because I have so much long exposure.
I'm like levered long, you know, right below the 200 day, you get the nice CPI.
You know, we had a pretty decent day throughout the day.
But if you go look at the IWM chart today, it was rejected at the 200 day to the penny
to my, in my view, it's not a big deal.
So if, you know, you're going to get overly bearish because we sold off midday, not a
big deal.
And if anything, a lot of times when you
consolidate under the 200 day, it's a pretty bullish place to be consolidating. If you go
look at the Ethereum chart, we basically consolidated right under the 200 day, tested it
four times before breaking through it just like yesterday. So, you know, I, I didn't expect that the, that we would break above the 200 day on
IWM on the first attempt that would require some insane catalyst, which I guess CPI was definitely
not enough for. So, you know, consolidate here, digest some of these gains. Obviously we've had
some insane runners on some of these names you know my portfolio
performance just last like late last week it was like Friday I passed 40%
year-to-date performance and this morning like three trading days later I
passed 50% so clearly there's a lot of you know upward price action. So for us to kind of chill for a second makes a ton of sense.
Obviously, the S&P isn't necessarily ripping to the upside. And I actually shared a write-up
that I keep retweeting because it seems to be coming true on May 19th. I forgot exactly what
happened that day. There was something that happened where like i think it
was like maybe it was our debt was downgraded maybe it was that day and basically like bonds
went up i don't remember which which exact day it was but something bullish happened well i thought
was very bullish and i wrote up something basically saying i feel like going into the end of June is going to be a ripper because what do you have right now?
You have a lot of people still underexposed on the sidelines.
You have at the end of June, Q2, like quarter end.
For people who have been sidelined, if you're a fund and you're managing clients' money,
I think in two simple words, it's called window dressing.
So people are going to have to chase performance and you're not going to be able to move the
market or be able to make up for lost time or make up the lost ground if you are jumping
into large caps or things that have, you know,
maybe already run, even though like the things that have been running are continuing to run.
But I think that was a good, I don't know what the word is, driver for the rally broadening out
to small caps. So to me, that made a ton of sense as, you know, why we're starting to see a lot of these smaller caps uh participate because
they are where people can potentially find alpha uh given their low valuations you can see in the
volume uh that they've been getting accumulated for the last couple months they're sitting in
stage one bases they're kind of slowly creeping up the volume is undeniable and it's possible
that some
of these are going to start heading into you know stage two uptrends uh you know a ticker today that
was absolutely on fire god bless mystic in our discord for ouster oust up 25 today um on some
pretty strong news uh there's there's just a lot of these names uh DGXX, which is a small cap.
It's more like a micro cap, but up 13% today.
It was up like another 10, 15% yesterday.
They announced a partnership with SMCI.
It's a tiny company.
So I think that there's like, and again,
there's companies like Techogen,
which I've mentioned a bunch of times.
TGen, what's that one doing?
That one was up a little bit today,
but now basically
flat on the day but I mean in the last like month this thing's up a hundred percent because they
have a partnership with Vertiv so the 40 billion dollar company the leader in the cooling space for
AI data centers so there's a lot of these kind of I don't know the word is tertiary kind of names
that are smaller caps that are kind of riding the coattails of these bigger themes.
And, you know, I think Stock Talk has found one that I'm also interested in, which is GSRT, which is currently a SPAC in the nuclear theme, which has yet to merge with the target company.
But that can be something that's very interesting because, again, the peers are much, much larger in market cap.
And it's riding a very nice theme right now. So there's, um, a lot of alpha out there and yeah, seeing a, you know, a couple of days of consolidations after huge runs in some of these
names, totally fine. Um, I, as I was saying in my kind of rant yesterday, I don't think that the thing that's going to take this market down or to change the trend in this market is something that any of us know today.
I think that a lot of the fears in the market, inflation, rates, tariffs, I mean, they basically just told you China has 55% tariffs. I mean, they basically just told you China has 55% tariffs. And maybe when the impacts
come down the line and affect corporate earnings, maybe that will be enough to take this market down.
But the market today knows that the number is 55%. You would think that would just destroy this
market. And we were green on the day. So in a scenario like that, I think a few months ago,
if you said back in January, 55% tariffs on China, I think we'd have like a minus 5% day on
SPY. So yeah, I don't know. There are really good names out there. There's a lot of good value.
I think you have to be a more selective stock picker. I'm actually enjoying this environment
a lot more. You know, I think
a lot of people did extremely well in 2023. I had a very good year in 2023, but, you know,
I probably underperformed the Mag 7 because that's just kind of not my style of buying big tech
companies. In hindsight, I should have just played it on easy mode. But I think that now that we're
further out into this bull market, you know, I don't, I don't necessarily think that the, uh, the drawdown we had this year, I mean, technically a bear market, but clearly we just
resumed the bear market, uh, the bull market. So I'm going to say 2022 to now is still the
same bull market with a steep correction in between. Um, like, you know, year one was mag
seven year two, which was 24, was basically low volatility.
You can buy all these high-flying growth stocks, the Palantir's, the HIMS, the App, Applovin, the popular growth stocks.
And this third year is an interesting one because what do you buy when the mag 7 is more or less getting fully valued um
the popular growth names are you know very i would say in some places overvalued so it's not to say
that there isn't still alpha there but i think at this point you would call that beta not alpha
um which sounds like semantics but it isn't. It just means that you're kind of writing the volatility of these names
rather than the underlying outperformance you can get from buying value.
So I think that if you're looking for true alpha in this market,
it's going to take looking more closely into ideas you wouldn't otherwise know.
And that's how you're able to get superior performance on a year like this,
is when all of those easier, lower-hanging fruit
have already been exhausted.
And now you have to do a lot more clever stock picking,
which is an environment that I think I thrive in.
I know Stock Talk loves these, you know, smid cap times.
So yeah, we're having fun with it.
Again, I still stand by the bios being extremely undervalued.
And I do think that they're going to have their day in the sun, which is why I'm highly
allocated to them.
And the tone at the FDA is really changing.
It's inflecting to being very positive.
They're talking about reducing timelines, in some cases up like by half, which could accelerate pipelines
and drug development and getting to market. So all of a sudden, you know, if you were to model
out, let's say DCFs, which, you know, you look at cash flows out into the future and all of a sudden
those timelines actually get cut in half, then those cash flows come a lot sooner and the net
present value of those cash flows should actually be valued a lot higher.
And so yeah, longer duration assets
just become a little less long,
maybe even medium term.
And that could really change the sector.
So yeah, I love to see the green shoots.
As I said, I'll just go through a couple names
and then I'll pass it off.
Magnite was green today.
Alster, 25%.
DGXX plus 12%. AIP is a name that's in the
Robotaxi, kind of a small cap name that, and I quote in there, they had a presentation this
morning. They said, we're backing all horses. So I guess they're working with all the different
Robotaxi providers. Yeah, that was up 7% today, now kind of fading through the day, still up 2%.
Regenexx Bio, which is one that I've talked about a lot, up 5% today. That chart is looking
beautiful up and to the right. PSNL, which is that baby Tempest AI, is up 7% today. And yeah,
that one's just looking beautiful as well. Yeah. I mean,
there are a lot of green shoots.
So yeah,
you gotta be a clever stock picker is I guess the point for this year.
So anyways,
I'll pass it off.
I appreciate the thoughts there.
Logical.
Let's,
let's keep following around here at the start.
Erkel,
how are you doing?
Are you watching today? day with the stock market in an uptrend. Totally, totally normal action here. The market is getting
a little extended, so I was worried about a big gap up day today because generally speaking,
from a technical analysis perspective, anytime you're coming up to a major resistance level
in overbought conditions, you often see rejections and drops before potential
basing, consolidation, and then continuation higher.
So with that respect, I actually don't mind the drops today.
I think it's healthy.
The 5.9 EMAs, the very short-term trend on SPY and the Qs are holding up just fine.
Bitcoin's holding up fine.
Last week I talked about Bitcoin a little bit
just off that 104K support
and how I was looking for it to continue higher.
I still do like the daily structure here.
Despite today's drop,
it is a little bit extended like the SPY and the Qs.
So a little consolidation here wouldn't hurt.
And during that period, just monitoring the crypto plays, I think I covered MSTR last week off that 350, 370 base.
The next level there is 387.
And I'm watching, I actually added a little bit today and it's down about 1%, just kind of assessing it off that 380s.
and it's down about 1%, just kind of assessing it off that 380s.
And the Bitcoin miners, which I covered,
I still think a lot of those charts look constructive
and some really nice daily weekly setups in that area.
But like Logical said, it's a stock pickers market.
You can play four or five names right now that are running hot.
And if you catch them in the right part of the cycles,
you can do really well.
Palantir was set up for a breakout today
and it had follow through.
That was a really nice move.
One I'm watching right now is HIMSS, H-I-M-S,
for those who aren't familiar with this name.
This is looking like it's setting up
for a breakout right now off this $57 level.
If it does break out here, I think it can, it's got a runway to 60 to $64.
So that's what I'm watching right now.
As we speak, it looks like it's getting a little hot after some consolidation.
Robin hood has been fantastic.
This one I've been swinging.
I bought it into the SNP rumors last week and I sold it on Friday and I added it back
on Monday when it dropped under 70. I've just been kind of swinging that position in addition
to my long-term holdings. I do like Robinhood for new potential all-time highs just with all
the catalysts recently, stock performance, vlad over at in washington so
definitely like that one for continuation and it's building a little bit of a
base and support off the 72 73 level so as long as that area holds i still do like the risk reward
on a short-term trade here uh so far looks really strong today that's another one we had to watch for a potential breakout today
Over the 1460 level and it looks like it is following through
And AMD, so NVIDIA is really having trouble holding anything above 144, 145
And it looked promising today but once again it rejected
But it's near support so i don't
mind this consolidation range it's sitting in and i do like amd as well which looks like it's
potentially breaking out of a weekly downtrend that goes back 12 13 weeks or so so amd is one
i'm launching to to potentially break this year-long downtrend and hopefully begin to put in some higher lows and higher highs as long as this 115-120 range can hold and it can confirm a breakout here. of stocks you can really cycle through them really nicely right now if you're playing either
breakouts or stocks and uptrends that are pulling back to key support and demand levels to reload
them and play them again if you're a short-term trader plenty of great looking opportunities
with that regard so just kind of where i'm at with the markets. Just a quick final note before I pass the mic off with SPY and Q2Q, just something I personally am a little bit concerned about.
And despite the fact that everything's in an-shaped rally, kind of what is the
next fuel, if you will, or catalyst to push the markets higher? Because a lot of the narrative,
which started over a month ago, was the tariffs on China were not sustainable, which was a comment
the cent made, I think a month and a half ago, which really kicked off this rally into high gear.
And, you know, we've been running on a number of things, including this trade deals are
getting close narrative, and we still don't have any trade deals.
And at some point, I just wonder if the markets will look for something more, for a little
more fuel to push to the upside.
So, you know, markets are extended.
So this pullback is totally normal.
But I do wonder if a bigger pullback could come, which wouldn't be concerning.
We haven't seen a pullback of consequence in two months, just based on the lack of
catalysts and just running out of fuel.
But, you know, I was reading somewhere that there's still plenty of cash on the sidelines
that some funds still aren't quite allocated.
So plenty of fuel to add to the fire, but just something I'm keeping in the back of
my mind, just wondering, you know, outside of just riding trend forever, what else could
help fuel the next significant move up?
Just kind of where my head's at.
So I'll leave it at that and pass the mic off.
Erkel, can I ask you a question?
Yeah.
You brought up MSTR and I've been tracking how crypto names in general are decoupling from Bitcoin right now, right?
now, right? Bitcoin is almost an all time high and they're not moving. I think there's just a
Bitcoin's almost an all-time high and they're not moving.
distraction right now with, you know, GME and DJT trying to do what MSTR did, but obviously their
scale at this point is minimal, right? They're dwarfed. I just keep looking at MSTR and say,
what's the catalyst there other than a Bitcoin holding company? Because that's really all they
are, right? A leveraged Bitcoin holding company. Is it too much competition
you think at this point that's keeping it down or you think it's just biting its time?
I'm trying to figure it out. So, you know, that's a great question. And I don't know that I have
a educated answer there because you're right. It is basically a leveraged Bitcoin holding company at this point. So, yeah, I'm not sure.
I'm not sure what might be holding it back.
And again, I don't think that I can provide an educated response to that outside of.
That's fine.
I just I'm trying to figure it out myself.
And I keep looking at going Bitcoin is almost at an all time high.
You would think a leveraged Bitcoin company would be, I don't know, you know what I mean,
would be raging up. And it's not. And I'm like, what am I missing? And I just feel like I'm missing something
and nobody seems to know it either. So thank you, though. I thought you were a good person to ask
the question of. No, you bet. You bet. And just in light of that kind of the all-time high comment,
that rally it went on, what was that, about a year ago where it went from 100 up to 500.
went on what was that about a year ago where it went from 100 up to 500 that got ridiculous
yes it got to a point where i mean it was parabolic it went up to 500 and then dropped
down to 200 so i i don't know how much weight personally i will put on the previous all-time
high given that oh i'm just looking at bitcoin i'm just looking at Bitcoin, the stone's throw from all time high and MSDR is not even close to its current high, three week ago high.
And I'm like, what's the disconnect that I'm not seeing here?
You're right. That parabolic move, I agree with you.
You know, that's something you look at and say we may never get back there.
Maybe we will. You know, I understand.
It's just I don't worry about those things.
Yeah, no, great, great question.
Great point.
And probably a lot yet to be learned and discovered going forward.
I just see we got a hand up from Sniper.
Can I get a mic check?
You hear me alright?
I totally forgot my hand was up, my bad.
I wanted to make a comment towards what Urkel said a couple of
minutes ago, probably about five minutes ago
or so, but he mentioned about HIMSS.
I posted the HIMSS daily chart, and I think
that $64 is an amazing
price target. It's literally
the next leg up, and it looks very clear to me on the daily.
I just wanted to put that out there.
I appreciate the thoughts there.
Let's keep it going, Mr. Monitiv.
What are you watching in this earnings area?
I know you always bring the numbers were
punished passes I'm curious how this this one ended up going into the
conversation any thoughts on what we're talking about
Oracle is is a really big you know player to to keep the momentum on on the
AI team so so that's very important coming out today.
And obviously, you know, the continuing move to the next phase of AI,
we should see that from Adobe tomorrow of, you know,
software income from AI-related, you know, themes. So those two are really important.
But just to take it further on what Urkel was saying, again, I've talked about this a little bit already, but we are within a week of the end of stock buybacks for the quarter.
for the quarter, you know, and we'll have a blackout period of about four weeks or so,
four or five weeks or so when that doesn't, you know, happen and that support for the
market does not exist.
I think there's been a lot of, you know, buybacks that are helping the market in an otherwise
lower volume here.
So that's one more positive that goes away. The other is,
you know, if we do keep these, you know, tariffs where they are headed towards well north of,
you know, 30% or more, is what, 55% in case of China,
you're going to see that, you know,
the earnings guidance starts to come down even more
because we're already seeing that
the ability for companies to pass on all of their cost increases
is getting lesser and less.
So they will have to absorb some of that.
Certainly, I don't think they have the ability to absorb all of that.
If they do, then you would quietly see earnings growth completely disappear altogether.
As it stands, we're looking at mid to high single digit earnings growth for the
rest of the year with a four percent or so revenue growth that is not good at all we we had twice
this earnings growth for you know about four percent revenue growth all of the last you know
four or five quarters so so we're basically continuing to grow some revenue while
slowing down to a crawl in earnings growth which is basically you know loss of pricing power
taking some of the costs without being able to pass it on so that is not a good sign so unless unless the uh estimates start going up uh you know i think
some of the some of the worries that oracle expressed we're going to start seeing those
come to play very soon that's that's how i see it
are any of these earnings this week interesting for you i know we have like an adobe and an oracle
um and some of those other ones is there anything this week you're watching monitors
no primarily just those two that should pretty much you know, their guidance is more relevant than somebody who, you know, reports at the beginning of the quarter, the beginning of the earning cycle.
So these guys are reporting almost the end of the quarter. So what they guide is more guided by what they're seeing today or,
you know, as late as maybe last week. So their data is far more current and far more relevant.
So that's really important to, you know, to listen carefully to their words and their message.
I think that speaks a lot more than, you know,
than consensus guidance for the, you know, for the market as a whole, right?
The rest of the mega caps were, you know, two months ago almost now.
So this data that you're going to see from Oracle and Adobe is far more current.
So what they say matters actually a lot more than what somebody says
at the beginning of the running cycle.
Anybody talking here?
No, I was going to ask. anybody talking here no i was gonna ask i was wondering like did we lose everybody
oh do you hear me mic check there you go good all right i'm having some problems anyway uh
shy next person up here mr futurum how we doing. How are we doing today? Hello, hello. Yeah, I mean, regarding Oracle, it's definitely a monster of a company. When
you think American AI, you immediately have to think NVIDIA, TSM and Oracle. So I think
you have to ask yourself, what's kind of being baked into their current valuation right now?
And it's a lie. So I think last cycle was like a really strong rpo numbers i think they
had i want to say it was 23 or 24 cloud division growth like it was really impressive numbers so
now it's all about how can they convert those rpos can they show any kind of variable real
acceleration uh watch out for those the quarterly cloud backlog rates, any kind of OCI, revenue
inflection, or any kind of customer acceleration adoption that's more than the market baked
into.
But right now, it's expensive.
So I do think you have to ask yourself, what more can they provide?
And it's going to be tricky but that's that other things I'm on like
I don't know what happened intraday I've been off the computers for most of today but something
it's caused the market a complete 180 so maybe it just needs a breather I know on the daily and
monthly charts it's been a little heated So possibly it's just a consolidation phase right now.
Some other things I've noticed on my, on Palantir.
Palantir here hit an all-time high today.
This is one name that just will not stop.
Even when we had a risk on pullback, like it was still showing,
it was one of the most, the growth stocks showing the greatest relative strength.
And it's just defying all odds of that valuation.
And I'm happy to see it because it's my number one position.
But it's just one of those names that just everyone's waiting for it to drop.
It just won't.
Other than that, I mean, Quantum.
Quantum today was definitely a major conversation
because last night's or this morning's, I don't even know which,
but it's NVIDIA's, Jensen Wong's comments.
He was very focused on quantum,
very heavy on how Kuda Q is going to fit into the quantum thematic.
He was making comments about Moore's Law,
how it's going to 10X every five years,
100X every 10 years.
And there's gonna be a pretty significant
S curve adoption when it comes.
And his tone changed drastically from,
I don't know, it was a couple months ago
when he said it was like 15, 20 years away.
He kept mentioning comments that was years away.
He sees real world applications right
now so that was nice i mean when jensen talks uh nobody in the world knows where the puck is
heading more than nvidia so i do put a lot of weight in what he was saying uh last night but
there's some there's definitely a quantum bubble a bit right now especially when you see names like uh what's the name uh qbq uh quantum computing inc qubt ticker i mean that's not a real
quantum computing company at all they don't even sell any computers and they're at three billion
dollar market cap and they were up 28 at some point point today. So I think a lot of times,
I was talking to Logical about this, actually. It's really tricky to value these kind of early
secular growth themes when nobody really knows the ceiling on it. And it's more of a concept than
an actual factual reality. That's the trickiness you saw it
early days with ai you saw it early days with ev i know tesla experienced it heavily back in the day
when they're really pushing that ev narrative 10 years i think it was 10 years ago so it's you just
never know when the ford volume is getting sucked today's valuation. But there's just some names in the closet space.
I can't believe they're valued that way.
And QUBT is one of them.
But yeah, other than that, small caps have been roaring of late.
I think there needs to be somewhat of a cool-off period.
But you're just seeing names like archers up 6%. I'm wondering if that's.
They're like the clearest.
Exposure to.
Andrew, which is about to go public, according to their founder yesterday,
and maybe they're catching a bit from that, but that's been a heater.
Some other heaters, AST has been on on a heater like a lot of the space evtol quantum names like they've been a bit catching major bids but seem overextending near term so I'd caution
those names same with Navitas like Navitas is the name that I've been in since uh in the twos and
threes and I don't know what the high was today, but it's definitely red right now. I think the high today was almost $9.
It's been on a crazy re-rating since that Nvidia partnership.
But it needs to cool off as well.
A lot of these names just need to have a cool-off period a bit,
so I wouldn't look into it too much.
We went from green to red.
I just think we're in a digestive period.
I just think we're in a digestive period.
But yeah, I'll pass it back to you, Evan.
But yeah, I'll pass it back to you, Evan.
Yeah, sometimes after these big moves,
the digestive period isn't so bad.
Definitely can't go in one way forever.
So yeah, it makes sense.
Wolfie, how are we doing today, sir?
I did forget once or two times that you were up here
because it's showing you as a listener.
You're the only one that chose to do that today, so it's
interesting. What are you
watching, sir?
I did quite a bit today.
I'm going to preface
it on the front end saying I'm talking about trading,
not investing. I'm not talking about investment
accounts and all that stuff, just for my trading stuff.
I sold out of most of my mid know made to short-term trades closed all of lemonade all
of tempest all of ascs crisper archer peloton uh took an l on baba and an l on some intel runners
after a pop yesterday shorted apple and palantir off the or not palantir excuse me shorted apple
and nvidia off the open um and took some profits on some midterm stuff like chevron um got really
fortunate with a apollo takeout speculation on papa john's took some profits there still have a small position left but still
profits um taking a look at like what was working most of the day so pretty early on i tweeted this
as well but it outside of microsoft um most of the mag 7 was acting weak underperforming, all of that stuff. We got a China deal that's sort of a deal, but nothing in paper, but a handshake.
But it's going to take a while, but it's not.
Have the Fed next week.
They've already started jawboning ahead of the Fed saying got a soft CPI print.
JD Vance went out and said that it's financial malpractice, I think is the term that he used for them not to cut.
So we have the Fed next week. It's going to be interesting.
The market is not pricing in a cut currently.
So if they were to cut, that'd be something that people aren't expecting.
A couple of days ago when CCJ popped, I talked about how, you know think I think let's talk let's talk talk about this that
a lot of times people feel like oh I missed it so you know I'm gonna chase it or whatever and
I was mentioning that uh unlike early in the move it seems like now you're getting a little bit of
a bifurcated situation where you get these names that pop and then some of the
derivatives or the things that are pin action names don't pop with it. But the setups don't
break down either. So you get these moments where these setups are there. And take a look today,
like CCJ popped to an all-time high breakout, not CCJ,cj occlo excuse me after ccj broke out a
couple days ago um i the way that i play that that space uh outside of owning ccj is i own
a floor flr which is a construction company an engineering company for the most part but they
own i think a 60 stake in smr so they get a little bit of derivative, get a little bit of tailwind.
That name took off today.
I own January 2026 calls.
They're already up significantly.
We book profits in most of those.
So for me, outside of all that,
I've pretty much flattened out
from a trading perspective ahead of next week,
head of the Fed.
It's like a whisper from an
all-time high. You know, you got the Trump birthday parade on Saturday. There's rumors of
possible attack in the Middle East somewhere. They're moving troops from the bases or from embassies, excuse me.
So I, you know, been beneficiary of some of these mid-cap names,
some of these names that these idiosyncratic names working.
So when that happens for me, from a trading perspective,
not investing, if you're an investor, I want to lighten off,
take my foot off the gas, you know, tap the brakes a little bit, reassess. If you get a follow-through breakout, great. Happy to
reassess and redistribute, redeploy. But with a 618 Fibonacci retracement off the lows on IWM,
right at the 200-day, I don't want to press my luck. That's how I start to have to make second and third order decisions, and I don't like doing that.
You guys are talking about Oracle.
Real quick, Oracle missed EPS three of the last four quarters.
Stocks up 50% pretty much off the lows and raises valuation concerns going into the print.
And then they're obviously a bellwether, so anything that they can say or any sort of guidance that they want to give, you know, moving forward on the stock or the industry or anything like that, it's probably going to move markets. in Argan AGX. They are a construction company. They provide services to construction and power
on their earnings call a few weeks ago. They mentioned that they have a record backlog in
their project pipeline strong. And it's obviously like a space that's probably going to get,
And it's obviously like a space that's probably going to get, you know, the tires kicked on and evaluated in the next couple of years as we have more of a need for more power supply in this country.
So that's pretty much it for me.
A little bit cautious on the big names.
You know, got a negative position, a short position in Apple and NVIDIA.
And I'm just, you know, trying to flatten out and trade.
I also bought a little bit of VIX today.
So that's pretty much it for me.
Appreciate your thoughts there, C.
And again, I'm going to say this one more time as we go into this conversation.
We're about 10 minutes from the close here. If you guys want to say this one more time as we go into this conversation we're about 10 minutes
from the close here if you guys want to jump into anything
especially as we're talking
sometimes we'll even leave a second here so feel free to
jump in and throw the conversation around
we've been to everyone
interesting times
dramatic music
we gotta get some Jaws music to cue me in.
You know?
Or something like that.
Something dangerous, suspenseful.
Oh, dangerous?
So is your middle name, do you feel like a dangerous trader?
I'm definitely a dangerous trader.
I'll take that.
No, it was a fucking hell of a day for us.
It was one of the best days of the year for me
with spy red which is kind of crazy uh portfolio is up four percent today posted a performance
update on twitter i pinned that up on the top now up 72.78 a year today it's actually a little
higher than that into the close um 70 72.91 actually now into the close but total return since i started this
consolidated account at the beginning of 2024 is now which is almost ridiculous to say this number
but 460.18 versus 26.95 for the s p 500 it's my main account it's most of my net worth um i
consolidated my stocks at the end of 2023
for easier management. I know there's a lot of people out there that have multiple accounts.
Because of how active I am, it's just easier for me to have everything in one place.
And also, it's better for leverage purposes as well. But new traders, pretend you didn't hear
that. But yeah, it's just going really well.
I posted a lot of our updates on stocks that I talked about, not only here, but on Twitter today.
Centris Energy just continues to win.
I continue to believe that is the best overall play in the nuclear stocks.
You know, we traded SMR for a double already.
That thing keeps going up, as do the the other smr small modular reactor names look i think those things can probably go to 15 20 billion
dollar valuations at this point i mean what's to stop them you know they're all pre-revenue so
you know people can keep having fun with those i made a killing on smr earlier this year i'm happy
with that return we traded it from like 17 to 34. But centrist energy, I am keeping.
I don't care about the volatility.
I don't care if it goes down 5% or 6%.
In fact, on the days where we've had pullbacks in the nuclear stocks, we've seen almost no pullbacks at all in centrist energy.
You're talking about, I talked about this a couple weeks ago on HALU, which I'm sure some of you remember me and Evan discussing. But, you know, it's a two and a
half billion market cap, and it's the only uranium enricher in the United States using US technology.
It's just, I don't even care about the numbers. The premium is just super off the mark, in my
view. Like, it should be a five plus billion dollar company on premium and rarity alone,
in my opinion. So, yeah, I'm not touching the centrist energy shares. I've traded this name so many times over the last five years and every single
time I go back to it, it's higher. So I'm not selling this time. Cost basis is 96. I
have flexibility. Even if this thing were to pull back, I mean, it's trading in the
one sixties now. So it's like so far off our cost basis that I feel very comfortable holding
it. But that name continuing to do really well today um you know up
over 60 on shares now in literally three weeks uh you know we opened that position at the end of may
um pretty perfect timing before all this nuclear craze picked up again and it's done nothing but
go up since archery aviation we picked up last friday after the close that stock pushed through
12 this morning.
It's closing actually above 12 here again, even despite a pullback.
It's closing above 12.22.
We opened it in the 9.90s on Friday.
Those October and July calls that we picked up on Friday are both up very, very nicely this week.
The July calls are up 170%. The October calls are up almost 85%.
I'm holding on to those full size.
Haven't touched and sold a single one.
I really, really think the setup is compelling.
And, you know, a lot of people who remember the DOMH, which is a private fund that used to hold Anduril.
The stock went up like 200-300% because they were the only publicly traded asset that owned Anduril.
They sold all their Anduril.
And so now the only real publicly traded way to get exposure to Anduril is by their only
publicly traded smid cap partner, which is Archer.
And so that was my thesis originally going into the trade.
It's the reason I became interested in the ticker in the first place.
We actually traded Archer earlier in the year as well, from the eights to the tens.
And so now we're back in sub 10,
have those $10 calls, which are now obviously deep in the money with the stock trading 12.
So I'll use those $10 calls effectively, treat them as an equity position now.
I'm not going to exercise early. There's no point in doing that. That's very stupid. If anyone out
there is ever considering exercising anything early, never do that. You're saving buying power by not exercising.
But yeah, we'll see what happens when those expiries roll around.
Maybe I'll exercise some of those $10 calls.
Maybe I won't.
I have both the 18th July and October expiries covered.
So yeah, whatever.
We'll see what happens to Archer by the time those expiries roll around.
And I'll address those contracts once we get there um but
i was so glad to see that thing pushed through 12 today um on uh all the andrel hype that was
coming out today after palmer lucky's comments yesterday and then one that i'm actually honestly
really proud of this one even though it isn't as big of a bigger gainer as a lot of my other
positions it's not as high beta but but, you know, Warby Parker,
Bravo, Warby Parker.
Like this thing just quietly went from 20 to 23.
No one talking about it.
Just, you know, we had that big pump
on the Google Glasses Partnership
and everyone forgot about it, consolidated nicely.
Yeah, I even posted that idea on Twitter.
I usually only post my ideas, my live ideas for our members, but I actually posted that idea on twitter i usually only post my ideas my live ideas for our members
but i actually posted that idea on twitter too the morning i bought it and orby parker and like
you know everyone was just kind of like whatever dude tell me about a tech stock
i got july 22 and a half calls on warby parker those are up 130 as of the close today
like in in a week and a half on a name that's not traditionally a high beta name,
you know, not a stock that a lot of people talk about,
very little analyst coverage, and it's just working beautifully.
So I'm very proud of that one.
And I like the fact that Warby Parker has been just quietly performing down there.
I added some longer exposure to Tempest AI today.
We had some lottos that worked really well.
Those were up about 80% today, the 70 call lottos that we had for this week.
But I added some exposure to that for the August 80 calls.
I don't know.
I just like the way it's acting.
I think it has squeezability.
Not much more to that thesis.
I just think there's a lot of attention on it.
I think with the Pelosi position gives it a little bit more of a dynamic.
So not a big position for me, but just a couple of options. Like I said,
have the weeklies for this week, added some August 80s. We'll see how that goes. You know,
I could take a full loss on those August 80s and it would make like maybe a half a percent
impact to the portfolio. So I don't really mind taking that risk. And we had some couple of red
positions today too. M&MD, I think was acting really weak into the close. I'll give that one leeway into the 21 EMA, but I'm not hesitant to cut it. Keeping CMPS
because it's holding the 9 EMA. If it loses that next week, I'll be happy to cut that one.
Yeah. I don't play around with risk. If it's my risk level, that's it. I'm out. Sometimes I get
shaken out of stuff as a product of that, but that's okay with me. You know, I'm okay with getting shaken out of stuff considering how much stuff that I, I stay in.
And the last one I'll bring up is a GSRT, which I've talked about here before I explained the
SPAC nav thing. I did a Twitter post about this back on May 29th for those that might've missed
it. But if you don't understand SPAC, SPACss have a NAV floor. That NAV floor guarantees your risk.
You can redeem at NAV prior to merger by the redemption deadline.
GSRT is small modular revenue.
So small modular reactor, small modular revenue.
Small modular reactor play, SMRs, which have had obviously a ton of hype.
For those that know the stocks, Oclo, SMR, NNE, these are all small
modular reactor peer plays. They've had a ton of attention from the market. They've inflated from
a couple hundred million market caps to 10 plus billion dollar market caps with a B
on speculation alone. None of them have any revenue. And so when we get to those points,
I think, okay, look, that game can continue, but eventually people are going to want to find relative value in the space.
At some point that happens.
Sometimes it takes longer than others, but eventually it always comes.
And so I've been pounding the table in our Discord.
I mean, Logical can testify to this.
I've been adding like every other day for the last, I don't know, three or four weeks
while this thing has been sitting in the 1060s.
I even added more this
morning when it was sitting at 1065. And here now into the close now, it's finally pushing over 11
and we may get a close over 11. Well, we are probably going to get a close on 11. There's
two minutes left of the session here on this thing. So now it's finally starting to move.
Maybe ARBs are cleared. I don't know. We'll find out later this week if they decide to sell it back
down to the 1050s, 1060s again. But this has been sitting there on the market for the last four weeks as one of the most compelling
risk reward opportunities on the market. And it's gone overlooked. But I didn't overlook it.
You know, I put over 11% of my portfolio into this name in the last month. I don't do that
with SPACs typically. That's a very big position for me. I'm running a
book of 10, 15, 20 positions. That's a big position for me. So I've just been accumulating it. Glad
to see that one finally breaking into this 11 spot today. See how it acts for the rest of the week.
I think once they add options onto GSRT, it's game over over you look at what happened with dmyy clbr these spacks went up
50 60 percent with nav risks playable right like dmyy the quantum computing spec you could have
taken that at nav when the da was announced or very close to nav when the da was announced you
five six percent removed from nav when the DA was announced. You know, 5%, 6% removed from NAV when the DA was announced. It is now 50% higher.
It went from 10% to 15%.
You know, CLBR, same thing, right?
All of these things sit at NAV for a couple of weeks or a couple of months
while the ARB traders are removed from the trade,
the arbitrage traders who want to scalp it for 50 or 60 cents.
It takes weeks or months to flush them out.
But once you flush them out, go look at the CLBR chart.
That's the one that's backed by the Trump boys for SPAC.
Look at, you know, the DMYY chart.
That's what happens.
So, yeah, anyway, I think the risk-reward is compelling, was compelling,
is a little bit less compelling now. Obviously, with, was compelling, is a little bit less compelling.
Now, obviously, with an 11, you have a little bit more risk, but it's trading at, if you consider the NAV market cap of $475 million,
you add the 5% or 6% removal from NAV, because it's obviously higher than NAV now.
You're looking at a $500-ish million market cap, $510, $520.
SMR is trading at $11.5 billion market cap with zero revenue.
Oculus trading at a $9.5 billion market cap with zero revenue.
So, I mean, I could go, I could repeat that over and over again,
but that to me is compelling.
And yeah, so very, very big size on that for me.
And I'm holding and not planning to sell even in the 11s.
So yeah, do what you will with that information.
GSRT, NAVS, we're close to NAVS back with a small modular reactor target.
Merger should happen sometime in the second half of the year.
And the coolest thing about it, I think, from a retail attention standpoint,
is the fact that the ticker will be NKLR, which is a sick ticker to have.
Especially in this era of nuclear stocks being parabolic, that's an awesome ticker.
So that's one to watch.
I mentioned Archer.
I mentioned Centris.
I mentioned Tam.
I mentioned Warby Parkerer oh uh bloom energy okay so i talked
a little bit about this one a couple of days ago on these spaces but this stock still held 25
percent sure and it is now what is this one two three four five six seven candles removed from the 200-day moving average after a breakout
921 pointing up stocks above the hundred and building higher highs above the hundred days
that's a nice look you have a clean channel forming it's not quite formed yet but you have
a clean channel forming off that 200 day looks launch patty to me if it can hold the hundred day
if it's 25 short you have the slightest positive news.
That thing will rip to 25.
So I remain long on that one.
We have a little bit of a cushion now on Bloom Energy.
I'm up about 50% on the 21 calls for July.
Most of my options exposure is on the July expiration, but I do mostly have equity
on that position as is true with all of my positions. You know, the options are just
compliments to my positions. Um, I run 85 to 90% equity on my book. So, um, yeah, everything's
working fucking beautifully. And especially considering spy was read today, like I will
take that, you know, six or seven of our names just breaking to new highs.
You know, it's just beautiful to see.
So these are the moments, consolidation moments in markets where stock picking really stands out, where you have when you have stocks that have a reason to move on their own merit.
move on their own merit that this these are the moments where that stands out when you start
These are the moments where that stands out.
getting chopped once we start you know i heard a lot of people on the panel today talked about
the idea of a risk of a pullback guys the risk of pullback is always there right you have to operate
with that as a base assumption as a trader right i never operate with the assumption the markets
are going to be green every day i know days like this are going to happen right i just try to pick
the stocks that i think even on a day like today, we'll still catch a bid,
we'll still find support. And we do a pretty damn good job of it. And for those in the audience that
hear me talk about these every day, and you're like, oh my god, I want to trade like that and
trade those types of stocks, come join our community for a month, come check it out.
If it floats your boat,
great. If not, great. But all these things I post on Twitter, these plays that I post,
these screenshots that I post, my portfolio of the trades that we're taking, these are all my dream.
Aclo, $400 million share offering, stock moving lower.
There you go.
There you go. Guess who's not going to do an offering gsrt because they can't
do an offering because they're spec so yeah that's great actually that's poetic that they
just did an offering after i was just talking about how much risk those smr plays have you
you can play smr and oklo and nne as a momentum trader all you want. Maybe some of you are invested in those names.
That's fine, I guess.
I think there's an incredible amount of risk, but that's fine, I guess.
But there's enormous risk at these levels.
GameStop just announced another $1.75 billion convertible note offering.
Cloudflare did as well.
I imagine the GameStop one is for Bitcoin.
Cloudflare one would be for actual stuff
um gme down five percent after hours cloudflare it was down three and then ocklow was down six
the oracle earnings also might have just came out oracle looks like it was a beat on eps
i haven't seen revenue just yet do they have a pricey on the offering? Let's see.
For Oclo? Yeah.
They said it was a stock offering.
I imagine that there's a...
$400 million
offering, par value,
under in public.
I think it's just going to be out the money, out the market
offering.
Underwriters uh up to 60 million dollars more so up to 460 million dollars for those of you traders out there that like to pay attention to the right things you should pay attention to
the prospectus on these offerings whenever there are offerings from smid cap speculative companies and pay attention to the banks on the offerings. Why, Stock Talk? Why would I do that? Because the Chinese wall that
exists between servicing banks and bank analysts is bullshit. That's why. You will very often see
banks that are on the prospectus of these smid caps, either issuing reports and upgrades,
price target upgrades on those stocks, either after the prospectus is made or many times before
the prospectus is made. So don't fall for that. Goldman Sachs on this offering, Bank of America
on this offering, JP Morgan on this offering. If you see coverage from those guys on Oclo,
you know what they're doing. You
know, always be mindful of that. In fact, when me and Yonezu do our catalyst checks in the morning,
me and him go through a variety of stocks every morning and do catalyst checks for my pre-market
calls. When we do that, one of the things we do is we look for the most recent offering on the
stock. And this goes for smid caps mainly. We look for the most recent offering on the stock, and this goes for smid caps mainly, we look for the most recent offering on the stock and we see who was on the prospectus.
And if the report we're looking at as a catalyst is from that bank, we generally ignore it.
Now, does that always work?
Sometimes you get a report from B of A who did the offering on a stock and it moves anyway.
That's still going to happen sometimes.
But very often what happens is that it seems like a great catalyst.
You have like a tier one bank coming out on a speculative name, giving it a crazy price
target.
You're like, this is going to run today.
You slap it in pre-market.
The second the market opens, they hit the offering and it tanks, right?
Sometimes these upgrades are put out for liquidity purposes. And it's hard to know
that as a new trader, but pay attention to these things when I'm going over them, because these
are small tidbits by which you can navigate and avoid those outcomes, or at least try to avoid
them. You know, you're not, nothing's ever going going to work perfectly but you could try to avoid those outcomes by by knowing small things like that and knowing how to check offerings for
which banks were involved etc um but yeah keep an eye on bloom energy as it comes over the spot
you know like i said highly shorted one pr and that thing goes
but that's pretty much it for me today i I mean, you know, we just enjoyed the fruits of our labor, really.
I expected the portfolio to be down more on a day to day and it was up 4%.
So that was surprising to me.
But I think it's sort of a testament that we're in the right stocks.
There are a lot of names losing momentum in this market.
And I think that's something to be mindful of.
It doesn't necessarily mean that the market is coming to a corrective point but it
could mean that some of those leadership names are gonna see some impending
rotation out of them and sometimes the indexes can hold up in fact not
sometimes most of the time the indexes hold up during moments like that maybe
you'll get you know half a percent declines for two or three sessions while the market reorganizes.
But pay attention to flows, right?
Like when you see weakness coming out of leadership names, what you should first do is look at peers in that group, right?
So with nuclear plays, for example, if whatever it does happen that these SMR plays start
losing leadership, maybe it starts now with this Oclo offering, who knows? But whenever
that moment does come that you see these names start to underperform the market consistently,
first thing you should do is look at the peers. So look at the other nuclear names and ask
yourself, are they also underperforming? If they're not, then you know it's an SMR problem,
not a nuclear problem. If they are, then you can start
being cautious about the nuclear theme. And the second thing you want to look at after you look
at the peers is you want to look at general market positioning. So you want to look at the indexes
themselves and be like, hey, are the indexes also breaking down while the individual market leaders
are breaking down? That's when you get cautious. That's what happened at the end of February, post DeepSeek, right?
DeepSeek, you saw this big sell-off in individual leadership names that led the market for the
last eight or nine months.
And that subsequently was followed by three or four really brutal days in the indexes,
where we fell below the short-term moving average of the indexes.
When you pair those two observations, that's when you get cautious.
Indexes breaking below the 200-day moving average combined with weakness and leadership names.
That's your biggest red flag.
Fuck the macro.
Forget all the conversations that we have on these spaces,
these long-winded speculations about whether a correction is coming or not.
You'll know if it's coming when that
happens. You'll know if a correction is coming when the index is knife blow the 200 day and when
leadership names start to lose momentum, not just lose momentum, but start to sell off.
When that happens, then you manage risk. Until then, I don't know. Try to pick the best stocks
you can pick. That's the way at least I'm doing it. So, you know, people say you can't get out of the market in time when the markets start correcting.
I think if you're a skilled trader, you can.
You know, another thing on my performance charts that I shared,
if you go look at my performance charts from earlier this year,
you look at that deep seek moment.
I was not hedged for the deep seek moment, right?
You saw that drop off.
You look at the subsequent
cells in March, and you see my portfolio actually jump because I was heavily hedged for the tariff
selling in March. And so that's the difference, right? You're not always going to be prepared
for the drop. I wasn't prepared for the drop when deep seek happened. But I was prepared for the
drop when the tariff sell off happened. So you can manage risk.
It's never, never too late to manage risk.
A lot of times people will say when the market starts breaking down, people like, wow, the puts are too expensive now or the hedges are too expensive.
Like, I can't hedge if if not hedging means you're going to stay in that long through that sell off.
Like, you know, the alternative of throwing some money at a hedge and losing that money on the hedge is better, you know?
So, yeah, could markets correct?
Absolutely.
They could always correct.
They could correct here.
It's been a big rally.
Maybe now's the time.
Maybe pushing into the 600 spot.
Who knows?
I don't know.
You know, for now, the S&P 500 is sitting right above the 5 and 9 EMAs.
It hasn't broken down in any sort of technical structure yet yeah we had
a red day today but we seem to have this conversation every time we have a red day
about like when's the next impending correction like i just don't have that attitude about markets
so we'll see we'll see what happens and for now you know the music keeps playing individual stocks
keep working beautifully like not just kind of working working beautifully the technical setups
on an individual basis across the board are super strong so what am i going to worry about i mean i'll worry when
there's a reason to worry right i'll worry once i start flipping through the charts of the names i
like and i'm like oh shit nothing's above the 9 and 21 emas that's when i start getting concerned
you know so we're out there yet we're a long way from there we can handle five or six more brutal
red days frankly There's some stocks
that I missed the last couple weeks that I'd love to buy.
So, you know,
bring it on back down.
I'm cool with that.
You see Oaklow down?
Did you guys talk about that already?
Yeah, we did. We talked about the SMR stuff.
Oh, no, you see it move
just now? Yeah, offering. offering yeah oh yeah gotcha yeah
what else are you watching today kevin we had uh kirk up here talking some oil and gas yesterday
now that's in your arena i'm uh curious on what uh you're watching on in this world literally
there's a headline in front of me right now shell to add up to 12 million tons of additional lng
capacity by 2030.
So it's like it was meant to ask about oil and gas.
But how was your day in the market?
You got any thoughts on what Stockton was talking about there?
I only cut the tail end, but I think I got the gist.
Look, we are continuing to be resilient for right now.
And once again, you gotta play the trends
as they are being played.
And look, you don't see immediate corrections usually when you have high beta stocks pumping.
They are pumping really hard.
Even, look, Oklo, I love the technology.
I think we brought this stock up a very long time ago when they first started bringing on the scene.
And the technology, we talked about SMR. We talked about even Berkshire Hathaway, which is like very low key, actually
has some very interesting technology when it comes to the power space. We've been talking
about that as well. But at the end of the day, I kind of also think about it and say,
all right, this is also going to be a power generating company. So how much is it truly worth?
But you got to play those trends, right?
And so if you see a Palantir, maybe Palantir is not, because it actually has a secular trend.
But when you see a lot of these stocks starting to pump as aggressively on an intraday basis as they are, that's usually not the signal that we have an immediate pullback taking place here.
And the economic data has been holding up.
You know, the CPI data haven't been on this week, I don't think, which is kind of unfortunate here,
but the Cleveland Fed actually had lower expectations going into this report,
the CPI report, than the street's expectations, right? And so we had that number. Obviously,
we saw the initial reaction to the upside.
But if you kind of look under the hood there, you know, the energy impact was actually a deflator for inflation, which is kind of not really the case, meaning that it has not come through yet on the numbers.
And so I will be waiting for that on the June report.
I think the market probably is bracing for that. Cleveland Fed's already re-rating to the upside when it comes to that inflation forecast.
And I would be mindful for that. Cleveland Fed's already re-rating to the upside when it comes to that inflation forecast, and I would be mindful of that. The oil space, if you're kind of looking at it,
it was basing out. It posted something like last week or whatever. Looking at the weekly chart that
MACD was basically crossing at that point in time, you're seeing the follow-through right now.
I think there's also a little bit of a push. Actually actually it was a big push because of this news report about embassies in Iraq being, the U.S. embassies being evacuated or whatever, planning to or what have you.
It seems like that report was a little bit off.
It looks like there is voluntary leave for the domestic spouses and family members of those individuals in that region or location. But it's something
to be mindful of. Keep your eye out on it. I mean, usually when we do see those actions being
taken place, it's either something that's an internal struggle that is happening, especially
when you look at Africa, countries in Africa, we see that kind of a lot, unfortunately. Or it could
be a wider escalation or preparation for an escalation there.
Not in Iraq, but probably in Iran.
In Iraq, airspace is used and whatever, Iran has proxies there, whatever.
So that's pumping it up as well.
I would be cautious here, though.
I'm not overly optimistic when it comes to the oil space.
I think you trade it on the technicals. I think this level, 67, maybe $70 is a comfortable level for me right now. Anything above that's kind of icing on the cake because the fundamental story, in my opinion, is still not there on the demand side.
Now on the supply side, it's kind of half and half. Rig counts continue to go lower.
is kind of half and half. Rig counts continue to go lower. Production will slow. It's going to take,
even if we do see a spike in demand, probably eight months to even get some of those rigs
even back online. That might even be a stretch. So it's setting up for a longer term structural
issue, but I still feel like the demand picture is a little bit wishy-washy. And then as prices go up,
I believe OPEC will continue to announce these increases
in quotas for production.
It doesn't mean that they are actually producing
at those quotas.
It just means that they're increasing those quotas.
And there's a couple of reasons for that.
One, it's a kind of an internal battle within OPEC Plus.
And then two, I do believe that OPEC is taking a shot at U.S. shale.
And I think the administration is kind of greenlit that, but that's just my own opinion there.
But you are seeing oil obviously move.
Heating oil is also breaking out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
I got that on my page if you guys want to see that.
That's the one that I have the biggest concern about because heating oil is actually diesel. In my opinion, from my research, from my backtesting,
heating oil and diesel is actually the best leading indicator for what CPI is going to do
on a headline front. And you can do that yourself. You can go to the FRED database. You can type in
diesel, overlay that with CPI. You can do that on the year over year or month over month, and you will see the direct correlation that occurred there.
And that's another reason why the energy prices that were reflected in CPI came in negative,
especially when you're looking at fuel oil. So I do believe that that will be something that is
reflected in June. But if you look at some of the other components within CPI, you are seeing some softness, right?
Airline transportation services and softness there,
apparel pretty much fell off a cliff.
So you are seeing some price adjustments
to the downside there.
But once again, I don't think that the energy impact
that we've seen over the last, let's say,
five weeks, six weeks or five weeks or so,
basing and breaking out has been reflected there.
You know, if we look at the yield space, yields obviously moving to the downside, that trend
continues.
Then you look at yield sensitive assets.
Unfortunately, I hate saying it, like utilities have had a great run and it's trying to break
out some new all time highs.
But I think you go back to those traditional names um in that respect if you're
looking at institutional dollars that probably will put money to work in order to chase yields
because utility yields actually look a lot more attractive when treasuries are lower i think
that's a play you can have your speculative um exposure when it comes to power and electricity
and utilities but i still think those core plays,
the Dukes, next areas of the world
are still serve a little bit of value there.
And then the last thing I'll say is healthcare is also one.
It's not a favorite right now for many,
but if you look at the weekly chart,
you can make a case that it is trying to base out.
And I believe that MACD is trying to cross in a bullish formation as well.
I don't think you're going to get a massive thrust up without United Health.
And so it's dragging it down.
But that's one that I think that there might be some value plays sitting in that area as well.
So that's kind of what I've been focused. And then I got to actually
give Jag a shout out. Platinum's like killing it right now. I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot
pole, but it's been doing a phenomenal job with the short squeeze, getting a lot of those managed
money, fun flows out on the short side there. And let's see how long that one lasts i don't
think it's gonna last for too long but we'll see uh that's another one and the metal space
is definitely bifurcated um and we we can see that pretty much on a daily basis so
that's kind of what i got i'll uh i'll kick you back
we got a hand up from you guys talked about
Oracle
not much past surface level
what are the numbers
I haven't even looked at how the stocks are doing
after hours
they're insanely
bullish in their
outlook
I'm reading the stuff
the headline numbers
beat top and bottom line
nothing fantastic but I'm reading the stuff. I mean, look, the headline numbers, yeah, beat top and bottom line.
Nothing fantastic.
But what they're talking is insane.
FY25 was a good year, but we believe FY26 will be even better. Our revenue growth rates will be dramatically higher.
our revenue growth rates will be dramatically higher.
They are increasing their cloud growth rate
from 24% in 25 to 40% in 26.
Cloud infrastructure from 50% to 70%.
RPO grows at more than 100%.
These guys are just killing it.
And the Oracle Virtual Cloud, I talked about that 115 sequentially q3 to q4
they expect triple digit growth rate to continue in fi 26 oh my god and and that is going from 23 multi-cloud data centers to an additional 47
and going from 29 dedicated cloud customer data centers
to 59, right?
So doubling both of those are more than doubling
and they're still going to grow by more than a hundred percent.
These guys are insanely bullish.
Either they're on some drugs or they're really executing absolutely flawlessly.
I think the numbers are insane.
I think this just shows that data center is re-accelerating across the board.
Yes, it is.
NBIS, baby.
Yep, Nebius.
That's right.
Let's right.
Let's go.
No, that's actually a hell of a report, though.
Marner's not exaggerating.
I was just scrolling through while he was talking.
Very impressive.
It's the drugs.
It's the drugs.
Yeah, he got on whatever he was doing in the academy.
Yeah, maybe he is.
No, they're doing a phenomenal job, man.
I mean, you know, they're doing a phenomenal job.
Let's see if they make it.
I mean, they're setting the bar up really high.
It was actually interesting.
I think this is actually better from a technical standpoint than the fundamentals.
Obviously, the fundamentals were phenomenal, but the technicals also.
That 180 level was an area of resistance.
There's some gaps to the upside as
well so let's see how this resolves tomorrow i mean yeah i'm not trying to make a call but it's
not outside of the realm of nor uh to say it could hit 192 when i uh yeah go ahead for for a company
their size reporting this late in the cycle to guide this bullish is yeah but they've had yeah but they had core uh excuse my language
there i feel like there has been some pretty low bars for this this company over the last
two quarters as well as i don't get me wrong i'm not like trying to poo poo on that i'm just i just
think technically it looks actually like a better chart and probably the fundamental story i think
was a lot lower bar for them over the last couple of quarters so yeah the guy is phenomenal
a lot lower bar for them over the last couple of quarters.
So yeah, the guy is phenomenal.
But I'm not taking anything against him.
I just think once again, the technicals,
it's technically going to be breaking out to the upside here.
And I would love to see how that's going to resolve itself tomorrow,
even by the end of this week.
And 195 is not out of the question for this name, in my opinion.
I'm seeing a headline.
Saudi Arabia taps Cisco and AMD for cloud projects.
Tap it in the American B team,
I guess.
Sorry to...
Wow, dude. Shots fired.
I own some AMD.
We're not saying it's wrong, though.
Oh, B.
Imagine Lisa Suze listening, dude.
Lisa Su's assistant is listening,
and now you're never going to get that interview.
If she's listening in here,
then my AMD stock is probably not going up anyway,
so it's okay.
I hope she's a little busier.
If they're buying,
that means your video's out of stock.
Sorry, go for it.
We're just being idiots.
Go for it.
Since everybody's voice cracking, I was just going to join in.
If Saudis are buying AMD, that means Nvidia's out of stock.
AMD, that means Nvidia is out of stock.
Yeah, I mean, look, you know, it's funny because I think Sam's right on point with the idea
that if they're this bullish on a guide and to your point, Monitiv, at the end of the
season, they have to be seeing something and they have to be confident enough in spite
of what other people and to be fair there
have been some data center names with mixed guidance right there have been others with very
very strong guidance so they're coming out you know in the in the final inning of the earnings
season and saying hey you know we are expecting to have this insane quarter and yeah i think i
mean obviously data center stocks are gonna get a bid tomorrow on this. There's no doubt about that.
And I know they have been being bid already.
But yeah, they're going to get an additional boost from this for sure.
It seems, you know, my opinions have gone back and forth on this. I came into the year very bullish on data center with a ton of data center exposure in my portfolio.
After the deep seek moment, I became very bearish on it and became very cautious about it
and caught most of my data center exposure.
Most of that I didn't regret doing.
Lumentum, maybe a little bit I regretted selling
after I got shooken out from the deep seek.
So I definitely got shaken out of some names
and my opinion got tugged around.
I think the most interesting thing I've read
about that trend though is actually Sam Altman's piece
that he wrote, I don't know if it was yesterday or the day before.
My days kind of blend together.
But I don't know if anyone else saw that, but he wrote a blog about how he thinks the
era of robotics is going to lead to this huge automated data center construction trend where
all over the globe, they're going to just have companies using
these robotics and software instruments that are being developed specifically for data
center construction and deployment that he's like, oh, in five years, you'll be able to
just have data centers being built autonomously.
And he was just talking about this in such a crazy way.
And I always think these
visionaries are a bit hyperbolic. They're certainly a little optimistic with timelines. That goes for
Elon, that goes for Sam, that goes for pretty much every visionary technologist, if you will,
of our generation. But in spite of them being optimistic and a bit hyperbolic, they're also
usually in some way, shape or form right about the overall trend. And, you know, in that kind of future, not having data center
exposure would be crazy, you know, and, and to Kevin's point, and to a lot of other, I think,
well made points that have been on this topic before, like, at the end of the day, a lot of
these guys, even when you talk about the SMR players, you talk about these data center players, like they're going to effectively be in sort of this construction deployment and
electricity generation business. That's not traditionally a high multiple business or
a high moat business, right? Like when you look at other industries and you look at other
analogs for what data center build outs really are when you get down to the nitty gritty.
But because they have this relevance to AI, because they have this not even peripheral relevance, this direct relevance to AI training and AI inference, the market has chosen to give pretty much everything touching that theme an enormous premium.
How long does that last?
I don't know.
But I mean, you dance while the music is playing, you know, for now, pretty much everything
touching that theme gets a premium because people don't know how big AI is going to be,
how big it can be, how far it can go.
People don't know that yet.
And so right now, the speculation is sort of endless.
And, you know, that's why some of these companies are trading at head scratching market caps, but
maybe rightfully so. I mean, who am I to doubt the market? Do I think that
the bubble in SMRs will eventually pop? Yeah. Might it pop when these things are 100% higher
than they are today? Yeah. You know, it's not like knowing that something is bubbly, I think, doesn't mean that you should short it right there and then.
I think a lot of people get killed doing that.
I think people got killed doing that with quantum stocks.
I think people got killed doing that with nuclear stocks, even space stocks.
A lot of themes in the last couple of years that have gotten so red hot, but the actual products and commercialization timelines are a decade
out, you'd think those make excellent shorts, right?
By traditional intelligent investor standards, you'd be like, yeah, those are excellent shorts.
Like, none of them make any money.
The products are years out, if not more.
Like, these valuations are $10, $15, $20 billion.
Like, these are easy shorts, but they haven't been.
In fact, if you tried to, and maybe outside of the deep seek moment, outside of, 15, 20 billion. Like these are easy shorts, but they haven't been. In fact, if you tried to,
and maybe outside of the deep seek moment,
outside of like,
outside of these brief two to three week periods
where these stocks fell precipitously in a group,
they've done nothing but go up for 18 months.
Quantum, space, nuclear,
and just rip,
not just kind of go up,
but like parabolic runs where if you-
Well, they pulled back.
They pulled back a bit.
Yeah, that's what I'm saying.
They pulled back for three or four week periods, two or three times.
That's what I said.
Well, I mean, Oklahoma pulled back for like, I mean, they pulled back for almost like three,
four months, but yeah, I know what you mean.
Since 18 months ago when the CEG deal came out-
Oh, okay.
Gotcha.
Yeah. I got you. I'm sorry. I thought you meant just the CEG deal came out. Oh, okay. Gotcha. Yeah.
I got you.
I'm sorry.
I thought you meant just the last year.
No, every stock pulls back.
Of course they pull back.
But I'm saying these have been the most parabolic stocks on the market.
Like the most parabolic stocks on the market have been space, quantum, and nuclear.
Like not having been in those themes for the last two years has frankly been an enormously missed opportunity.
And for the people that have tried
to short them, they've gotten pummeled. These stocks have gone up 700, 800 percent in a very
short period of time. So to me, the market is expressly telling us its attitude towards these
thematics. Is that attitude and that hype going to last forever? Of course not. It never does.
Eventually, the commercialization, the earnings, what these business models will actually look like, that'll matter eventually.
But for now, there's an enormous amount of speculation.
And as a consequence of that, there's an enormous amount of trading opportunity in all of these sectors.
And there has been for over a year.
And so I think paying attention to thematic opportunity in a market like this is probably the single best thing you can do if you want to make crazy individual equity returns and be able to, you know,
participate in these mega themes that sometime last not just a few months, but 12, 15, 18 months,
you know, where life changing money can be made. That's what these themes have all been.
You know, you didn't even have to be in all three could have been in any one of them could have had a handful of stocks and they've all performed like
i can't think of a single name that's a pure play exposure to all any of those three themes
even the worst names like qubt that have no technology like they're up 800 you know like
the the market is just so so much salivating over these next generation themes that they've been the best places in the market to be, frankly.
Yeah, I was going to say, I mean, there's a lot of this, you know, thematic related run that seems insane.
But if you think about it, you know, every one of those is severely constrained by capacity,
has never in the history of the industry had this kind of, you know, market power and ability to charge a price that,
you know, frankly, because of shortage, there's nothing you can do, right? Utilities is one
thing, right? Other than regulated utilities, which cannot pass on, you know, increases,
everybody else can just charge whatever the heck they want, and these companies have to pay.
Data centers have to pay.
It's like, you know, you want power to get connected?
It's still cheaper than running generators on site, so they will pay.
That's a huge premium that the industry has never seen in its history.
All of these engineering companies, all of these construction companies, all of the companies that make the components for that, they don't nearly have any of the capacity to put this together in the growth
rate that it's growing at. So every one of them is bumping up their prices and they're
getting what they're asking because you can't create another power equipment producer suddenly.
It just doesn't work like that, right?
These are things that are sometimes pretty old, decades old technology
that are so deeply certified and tested and verified.
You can't just bring in a new producer.
And these companies really marginal capacity
at best. So they can't suddenly say, okay, we're going to double the triple capacity.
They don't have the people, they don't have the capital, they don't have, you know, so
many things. So they have incredible market power right now. So in some sense, that's
behind most of, you know, the multiple appreciation that they've seen in the last
uh you know certainly last 18 months you know on the power front this reminds me of uh 08 and solar
0708 right um it was the same thing right new technology i wouldn't say this is truly government backed um in the way
that solar was but obviously uh regulatory wise probably uh and somewhat equivalent uh and that
can last for a fairly long time as well right the technology is very unique and i think we
you know if you just silo it and you just think okay it's because of just data centers. I think that's selling the technology way too short itself.
If you start thinking about how you can actually implement these in municipalities themselves
that are actually going to be taxed by GOs, basically backed by actually state funding as well.
I mean, there's a whole huge option here
when it comes to the power space.
So data center is definitely taking the brunt
of the sunshine right now,
but I think that's gonna be a very small slice
to how this could actually apply to pretty much anywhere,
almost in the United States in some respects.
Now you will have to have some type of infrastructure, right? Water, cooling, things of that nature. But over time, this
definitely will grow. I'm just not sure as much, how much of a premium over time these things will
last because obviously they're trading at very high multiples right now. But yeah, no, the theme
kind of reminds me of 08, 07, 08.
And that's a cool thing.
And then we're going to have capacity.
Eventually, just like with everything, we will overproduce.
And then once again, prices will then come down
and markets move forward.
So this is a, it's a good, it's a good development overall.
But I think if you just look at the
power space and utility space and say, it's just data centers and that's it, you're selling it
short. I think over time, once you see other applications being put into place, you're talking
about taking a very small town that wants to be able to grow. Maybe they do have some certain
resources that are there. Now actually making it viable to be able to build on top of that instead of trying to
tie directly, well, the grid also have to be built out, but not tie, put too much money into
building out the grid infrastructure and knowing that you're going to be able to have maybe a rate
of return or maybe other investors to be able to build out towns and cities. I think that's,
for me, that's where the money's
gonna be made over time,
not so much the data center aspect of it.
Oh, I wanted to bring this up.
NBIS, you guys talked about that earlier.
There were some flows.
Somebody for the July 18th expiration got into 65 calls today.
That was me.
That was you?
Yeah.
Well, showed up on my scan.
So that was actually a very interesting trade.
And then for Okla, what was actually very interesting is somebody took a $62.
Obviously, there's a lot of volume there, but I saw the $62 puts being brought up today as well,
probably in relation to maybe this news coming out. So continue to trade them and be tactical
with it. I think right now the market's kind of in a lull period until we get anything that actually kind of disrupts us from a news front geopolitically.
But it has to be a pretty big thing. I think we've become very numb to a lot of the news events that have hit the market here.
And from an economic standpoint, the three key areas as far as economic data, if you're looking at inflation, if you're looking at jobs,
those two just together itself, holding up. And if you're looking at GDP, that's just so erratic
that I don't think anybody should probably even pay attention to that over the next couple of
quarters. Until you see any of those three really truly crack or create a trend or negative trend,
I think the market's going to try to hold up as much as it possibly can.
Yeah, I mean, really the whole theme is that when you have expectations to a certain point,
you come in above those expectations, regardless of how outlandish it might be,
that's going to cause the pump. I think we all thought Oracle's last quarter was pretty good,
and then they come in with 70% growth for fiscal year 2026.
And that right there is increasing expectations.
I mean, not really.
I'm not to short the market.
I don't even think from a technical position, it's not the best time.
You never short all-time highs, even though we're not all-time highs.
Still, it's like you don't want to short all-time highs.
Maybe we're selective with it, but it's just so hard to bearish right now. It really is. I think there will be times when we
can probably short the high beta, but right now high beta is in favor, especially since we're
pretty much transitioning from a reflation state to a Goldilocks state. We have GDP expanding or
the rate of GDP expanding, and you also have the rate of inflation decelerating.
And that's enough to create a bullish backdrop. It's so hard to be bearish that that's when high
beta just outperforms low beta by far. And we're probably going to continue seeing that. I mean,
just these names just running. So especially the pre-revenue companies, I don't even need
to talk about that one. And quads computing, I know it's not i would not short these stocks right now uh especially
since premiums high so if someone were to short it then that would definitely be put spreads put
debit spreads at least uh but you need some time for that like you can't be buying anything to
expire the next couple of weeks like you'd have to get really lucky to call the top on that one
uh but uh when that moment happens then you know that that'll be a moment to put on some risks to the downside. But until then,
it's just, you just throwing money into a fire, in my opinion, unless you have the short exposure
or unless you have the time, whatever it is, times like this, you know, be tactical. And that's even
to the upside as well. Probably could have said the same for the upside maybe uh probably three weeks ago maybe mid-may you know there was a lot of upside that you could
probably price into the market but now especially since earnings season is over i mean i don't
really know what else could possibly come up that'll be somewhat new to the market that'll
push it up higher than it is right now even though though it might anyway, but shorting it at this point is pretty risky in my opinion.
But it is, yeah, if you were outright shorting stock, like the actual equity, but I will say, vol is actually really cheap.
So, I mean, if you wanted to get short exposure to the downside on indexes, I mean, or if you want to call it a hedge, if you wanted to put in a hedge, I mean, now is kind of the time to do so.
Usually people buy vol when vol's way too elevated.
I mean, short vol when it's way too low.
And I think that we're actually at one of these lower points when it comes to volatility.
So it's just.
Yeah.
I mean, that's what I was saying.
Like you need time, right?
Like you can't buy like
puts on i and q for next week like you're gonna get murdered i mean the iv is so escalated like
you need a huge move through the downside quickly um but uh yeah you need time to do these things
and i think uh you know you see the big you see the drop that happened intraday and nq
and that recovered you know it's just the dips, you see the drop that happened intraday and NQ and then that recovered,
you know, it's just the dips are just getting bought relentlessly. Like you got to have time and layer in, obviously, like I know you're definitely not new to it at all. You know,
that's something you definitely want to layer into if you're going to put it on and even as
hedge, right. Cause you don't want to leave the risk that there is upside risk, even in this
market still. And, um, people don't really think about that right tail as well. So, you know, cover your feet.
But it's just, it's hard to look at the market and see opportunity today
versus like just a few weeks ago and seeing opportunity.
There's isolated opportunity elsewhere, maybe for trend following as well.
There's a few names that are just relentless in strength today, like Hood.
Hood is just power performing throughout the entire day
and closed pretty much above its last Friday highs
before the inclusion announcement
or non-inclusion announcement, whatever we want to call that.
But at the same time, software was underperforming today.
And that's something I've been noting on
for the last few sessions here,
probably the last couple of weeks, is that semiconductors have been outperforming today. And that's something I've been noting on for the last few sessions here, probably the last couple of weeks
is that semiconductors have been outperforming software
for quite some time.
The tickers that I, the ETFs that I track for that
are SMH, or sorry, SOX and IGV.
And on a ratio basis,
today is probably the first day that IGV did outperform.
But at the same time, you know,
when you see the performance, when you see
the outperforms of certain leaders in the market, especially in like kind of a flat market today,
for short term plays, those are the ones that I want to focus on more of the upside stuff.
And then of course, you know, if you're going to the downside, then you want to focus on the
laggards in that case. But you know, still, yeah, you need some time if you're going to
be buying puts and stuff put debit spreads in my opinion
I appreciate those those thoughts there um we haven't talked that much about China in this one.
Some interesting talks going on there.
Kevin, if I could pick your brain on that one,
on where those trade talks are at.
We seem to maybe have some sounded-like conclusions,
but it sounds like there's nothing on paper.
It's all just oral agreements.
It's kind of going back to what we were talking about
in those Geneva talks at the last one. I'm curious of your takeaway takeaway on this one it was also a little confusing when he came out first
and said 55 percent tariffs and 10 one way and i kind of re retold what that was is that u.s is
charging 55 percent uh imports or tariffs on chinese imports and 10 the other way around
there was talks from the wall street journal about you know, the rare earths that China maybe agreed to give,
that had a timeline on it for six months.
It seems like there wants to be more talks.
So it definitely doesn't feel like a conclusion point,
but a launching off point.
I'm curious your thoughts on that, the commentary that around it.
Obviously, we had Lutnick coming out and saying, you know,
we're moving on to the next deals, expect a lot of them.
Mark didn't seem to react to that a bunch.
I know we had Mike talking about that.
So I blabbered a lot there.
I'm curious your thoughts on that.
Yeah.
So there was no progress from what we saw from Geneva.
They were just reinforcing what happened in Geneva.
So I know that we're
they're they're touting it and they have to right you spend 20 hours of time trying to crank out a
deal and probably went nowhere and they just said hey we'll just you know let's keep the same
framework and then we're gonna blame the bosses if uh the deal doesn't go through, right? So they have another couple of days until they fully approve, apparently, whatever.
So, but yeah, no, there wasn't any progress.
Like, let's call a spade a spade.
You could read the news headlines as much as you want and say,
oh, we got a deal done and this, that, and the other.
But literally nothing changed.
We saw no progress.
Maybe that is progress. Maybe that is progress.
Maybe progress is that it did not break down,
but there was nothing that actually moved the needle forward
here on the terror front, which is why you saw that lack
luster kind of reaction overnight.
It was a five-point move.
I think I was trading it.
I was like, oh, OK, this is the thing he's going to pop.
And it popped like five bucks or five points. And I was like, all right, this ain't happening. This ain't the jam
tonight. The 55% tariffs that President Trump is talking about is the 30% that's already existing
right now, and then the carryover from his first administration, so that's where he's getting that 55% number.
Howard Lucknick, I believe, was the one that kind of explained that on CNBC earlier today.
And then, look, we're not hearing a lot from China.
What I find interesting here is not so much, you're not hearing us comment that we're going to roll back tech restrictions.
You're hearing a lot of commentary about Chinese students being able to go to U.S. universities, schools and things of that nature.
Like that was the concession, which is why I think once again, the markets may be questioning the messaging here.
So we'll see. We'll see.
And I just feel like there hasn't been any progress. Now, Howard Luckner came out and said, hey, we're going to have an
announcement like next week. We've been hearing that for the last four weeks. So is that actually
going to happen? Maybe, maybe not. He also said that the EU is actually the toughest one to
negotiate with, which is understandable. You're talking about a conglomerate of different countries that represent the eu and they all have their own different interests and
you have one person that's kind of heading this whole thing so it's going to be very difficult
but i think the expectations that the administration had when they kind of kicked this thing off and
then saw this reversal or did this reversal uh they're probably behind their own timeline right now.
And so small wins, they're being amplified as big wins for now. And at some point,
the market might be, I don't want to say calling its bluff, but like, hey, let's actually see the
numbers. Let's actually see it on paper. Let's see more than just a framework because you don't
want to hear just framework. Framework is going to be,
obviously, it's going to be the first step, but these trade deals are going to take a very long
time. I think the expectations from the administration at first were like, we're
going to power through these things. That's just not the case. And then what do these final deals
look like? I'm not too concerned about a deal with Mexico in the United States or
a deal with Canada in the United States. I think those will get worked out. There's some other
legal basis there for that. Even the EU, not really a concern. Japan, kind of interesting,
but they are in a rock and a hard place. So if we wanted to put excessive pressure on Japan,
we could do so pretty much in an instant
because they buy our treasury debt
and everybody kind of talks about that.
Well, they buy our treasuries, yeah.
But who's actually like providing them the backstop
for their finances is us.
So if they go down, we go down.
And if we go down, they go down.
So I think we still have a little bit more leverage
that's there.
But when you kind of look at China,
the end trade agreements that I foresee right now,
it's going to be announced. Purchase agreements, they're probably going to be non-binding purchase
agreements. You put them in writing, right? Let's say this happens six months from now,
eight months from now, what have you. You put it in writing. Obviously, if you're going to
increase trade, it's not going to happen instantly. It's going to take some time. By the time that we can actually hold China to account, when we look back, the Trump administration is going to be long gone, just like in 1.0.
had in the first Trump administration. There's nothing that's going to be different with this.
You're going to come out, they're going to talk about liquefied natural gas. That's going to be
a new thing that hits. You're going to talk about agricultural commitments. That's something that
they had the last time around and that completely destroyed a lot of small farmers because the
commitments obviously didn't go through. You're going to talk about automotive. Those are going
to be the big three industrials. I'm going to throw automotive and industrials in there, the Boeens of the world, maybe cats, deers, and things of that nature.
There was a story today that Boeing was asking to not be included in the tariffs. Now, I'm and saying, okay, right? Boy who cried wolf.
And maybe that's okay. I think if you're bullish, you want it to be that way. You don't really want
it to be centered around this. Cause I think if you're really looking for the actual substance
and things that are actually going to stick over the longterm, I don't think that you're going to
see that being formulated in the next six months, in my opinion. And I think the way out is going to be purchase agreements and lack of follow-up
and then blame the next administration that didn't follow through, just like the first one.
So I'm not really optimistic with it.
Howard Lucknick pretty much is saying that these tariffs are going to stay in place.
I still think that's going to have an impact on earnings growth.
I think it's going to have an impact on economic growth here in the United States.
But if the market doesn't really care about it, not much
you can really do. You can't short just based off that. You got to short based on other items.
That's how I kind of look at it. And I might be completely wrong, but you kind of look at this
path as eerily similar to what we saw in the first Trump administration.
I'm waiting for one of the vice premiers to visit the White House, man.
I still remember that day.
I still remember that day.
We were pretty much at all-time highs in 2018, or near all-time highs in 2018.
And then you had all the trade representatives from China and the vice premier, Lu, at the
time was the vice premier, visit the White House, and everyone was waiting for that dump.
Everyone was waiting for that dump everyone's
waiting for the day and it didn't dump it done for like maybe 30 points in nq but that was really it
and it just took off after that yeah no this is very sick and i would have never thought it was
very similar to what it was a couple of months ago but it really is turning out to be that way
It really is turning out to be that way.
And they'll probably pull me one fourth of the way.
And they'll probably just continue to add company.
I mean, companies that are willing to do deals, quote unquote deals, pay up, whatever you want to call it.
Those will be the ones that get on exemptions.
And those that don't want to play ball, don't.
You know, like that's kind of call a spade
a spade here and i think you know i think executives also understand that and are working
in that type of environment and if the market's fine with that then the market's fine with it i
just i wouldn't get your hopes up um that you're going to get anything that's going to be truly
truly monumental that actually sticks and is reflected in trade data over the next two years, three years.
I'm just, I'm not that optimistic at all.
Yeah, I can't believe we're only like, what is it, June?
We're officially like
seven months into this so we got a lot of news headlines oh and no deals in one
and one deal and one deal that is all of six pages I believe and like damn
they're like one and a half space on the text well apparently like Nick says that
next week we're gonna get deal after deal after deal starting next week.
It's probably India. I would
probably put money on India.
Well,
we're getting a lot of rumors that India is close.
The Japanese ones have not sounded
super close.
Mexico, there was rumors that stuff
around the steel and ones that
I don't know, it seems like there's a lot of different discussions
also going on at once between these fentanyl tariffs and we have the steel tariffs steel and ones. I don't know. It seems like there's a lot of different discussions also going on at once
between these fentanyl tariffs
and we have the steel tariffs
and we have this bunch of different things.
And maybe the core underlying it
is trade surpluses and that.
But it's, I don't know.
Just just like every single direction
and nothing's actually happening.
But the market doesn't seem to hate that the market, you know, this,
it clearly can gobble up and all this indigestion, all this like,
I'm not knowing what's going to happen.
Not facing the market as we're pretty much back at all time.
Yeah. If it doesn't get worse, that's what the market's price again,
that it doesn't get that it,
that the policy doesn't get
more erratic and it doesn't get more restrictive you know once you have those two factors coming
back into the picture that's when you're going to get volatility but the market's kind of like
probably egging them on like yeah you know like take more time like 20 hours you should be in
there for like a hundred hours and then like not speak to the public and equity markets are open.
So you don't pull out people's positions.
Wild ass commentary.
Yeah, wait till Friday night.
Wait till Friday night.
Exactly.
There seems to be some, I know absolutely, I don't know a lot about geopolitics, but there seems to be a lot of people talking about this Israel Iran Middle East kind of stuff seems to be a
lot of rumors stuff going around right now but that's obviously something to
keep an eye on is that something you're watching right now obviously nothing's
happened yet but and a couple of geopolitical people that I watch seem to
think something's gonna happen in that region very soon. What's the first step to a, you know, first step to like a major conflict is, is, you know,
adjusting your, your embassies and trying to just, um, drawn down only like essential staff
and things of that nature. So, um, it seems like once again, those reports are kind of mixed,
uh, like ROC continues to come out and say, hey, there's no security concerns, this, that, and the
other. But it is true that Pete Hedid Seth did authorize the voluntary departure of dependents
of those that are working in the embassies. That's your first level. If you guys remember back in the
Ukraine-Russia conflict, that was your of like your first thing that happened, right? And then you start pulling more people back. It's just a signal. And think he wants to do it, but I think he's trying to
show that bluff in order to try to get them to the table when it comes to this nuclear deal.
And if you do, and this will be, because I got a gem, my little man's birthday is today. So
Iran, if you think about it, probably the only thing that you're going to be able to do is bomb
them, right? You're not going to probably put boots on the ground or even significant boots on the ground.
I'd be very hesitant to put boots on the ground.
Because if you look at Tehran itself and the landscape, mountainous is basically a bowl.
If you kind of look at the West, and I love our troops, but if you guys go back in the past, if you're a student of history, we don't really do too well in mountainous regions and prolonged conflicts.
No, like none of the Western countries really do.
So I don't think if you're going to see any type of escalation, I think it'll be all air and not really actually putting physical boots on the ground.
actually putting physical boots on the ground.
And I think if there is a concern,
Iraq could be, once again,
it will be a country that will be involved,
not probably from its government sponsoring it,
but from military actors or militias
and things of that nature that are within the region
that probably are causing a little bit of concern.
So I wouldn't fret about it yet
until you actually see a news headline that says like
things are actually up in the air i would kind of i would i would discount i would discount the risk
for now that's fair i appreciate you kevin i think you said it was your son's birthday there so
definitely happy birthday to him uh i saw you you loading up some of the, giving him some
shitty pitches to test his eye. He was swinging at every single one. I didn't want to comment
that on the video.
Yeah, he had him do like 15 or 20 of them. He actually connected on two of them though.
I was very surprised, but that was a fun time. So I appreciate it
Appreciate everybody on here and I hope you all have a good rest of your night
We appreciate you Kevin you should definitely make sure you're following Kevin and all the other amazing speakers up here all fantastic
Improve your experience on this app. We appreciate them. I
Definitely happy birthday to your son
I'll see you joining us up here. Was there anything you want to add into the conversation?
Hey, what's up, boys?
How are you doing, Frank?
Good.
So I spoke to a couple of guys today, friends of mine in New York and Washington.
And this thing with Bahrain, right when I saw it, I'm like, ah, make a call.
So Kevin just said maybe he just wants to do that to put pressure on Iran.
I think he's doing it for more than that. I don't think it's too obvious. Right. I think that he's getting he's like Trump is the type of guy that doesn't want to put the troops in harm's way.
If he's going to put them in harm's way, it's going to be like all or none.
Like that's the kind of president he is. And I think Kevin was right, like air power.
But we may be just moving things out of the way for Israel. So the heat is Israel is done. They
do not want it. You know, Iran's been a threat. The whole thing is just continuing, continuing. And they've been
bombing Syria. And the odds of it are probably only about 30 percent, but it's something we
definitely should keep an eye on. Because once it hits, once it starts, there's no reacting to it.
So you've got to know it's out there. It's a little bit of a black swan. You know, I think the odds are probably 20, 30 percent.
But, you know, it could happen. And, you know, things are leading, have been leading in that direction for a long time.
And obviously talks aren't going well. And to move troops and families and and equipment, you know, that's a half a billion dollar.
You know, that costs money to to move that out of Bahrain and Iraq.
So, and, you know, they're moving a lot.
So they don't just move, you know.
Remember how pissed he was when they left all that equipment in Afghanistan?
They're going to be taking equipment with them.
So this is a, it's bigger than I think anyone, it's not that big, but it's bigger than we realize.
That's just my thoughts frank and kevin i i just have to say i i don't disagree with you but i don't think it's imminent
no no i said 20 30 i think that you know these times takes these things take time but
you know trump is all about surprise it It's real about surprise. So like we
have a lot going on here this weekend with this parade in Washington and, you know, showing the
military strength of the United States. So I just think that it's something you have to keep an eye
on, you know, and that move in oil today was pretty 5% at one point. It was pretty dramatic and quick and that had other things going on besides that it was
obviously the reserves went down so
but like, you know, I've been through this shit before I actually during
89 I was in an airplane we went to war in with with Iraq the first time I was on my way to ski in Europe and
with Iraq the first time. I was on my way to skiing in Europe and the guy comes on and says,
yeah, we're at war with Iraq and I'm on an airplane going to Switzerland. I'm like, okay,
great. But like, you know, you just, there's just a feel and my feel is that it's, it's not a level,
you know, say we've one to 10. I think this is a level like four um three or four five which is
pretty you know that means you got to pay attention that's all i agree with your monitor
it's not nothing tremendous but you know once it happens and then the market quickly reacts
now let me be a little more specific right we we really, really thin on resources in the Gulf right now.
One carrier strike group, that's it.
Nobody else around.
Nobody in the med.
So this is, and the kind of relationship that we have right now with NATO and EU,
it's not set up for U.S US to start anything here right now.
It's probably going to be a couple of weeks before the US has the resources to do something and stick to it for weeks.
So that's what I'm saying.
Not so that it's unlikely to happen.
This is probably being forced into a reaction by what Israel is planning to do irrespective of what we do.
Exactly. And Israel is, you know, I look at Israel as part of the bigger issue. Like,
he's probably trying to hold them back and they're jonesing. You know, this is a bigger threat to
them than it is to the United States. I'm sorry, Last thing. They have to be able to secure a significant part of Syrian airspace.
I thought you laughed.
I thought you laughed.
Yeah, I know.
Hold on, because you bring up a good point.
I had to sit on, you know.
I got to listen to Frankie real quick.
They would have to really secure a significant portion of Syria's airspace and have those
guarantees, I think, in for israel to launch something successful
um because they either have to they have to land in syria and or refuel to get in and out of iran
uh they can't just go in one shot from israel directly to iran they have to have two things
up wasn't there that wasn't there that whole thing when the char fell that they like struck all the
the defenses to syria or? That was the reason why.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Because if they're going to do any type of refueling, they're still going to have some
risk of air defenses.
So like there's multiple pawns within this whole chess game.
And I think the Syria portion is something that's definitely overlooked.
And that would be like your final stride.
We have been cozying to the new Syrian regime as well, right?
I mean, like the signs are definitely on the wall,
but I don't think that we've secured like full on like airspace control there
in order to operate.
I think that's something that if you start hearing that type of commentary,
then Israel basically has a clear shot uh i'm trying to attack
that was the only other thing all right i'm out
appreciate you kevin i saw kevin hanging out up here i was like all right we got him stuck in
he was intrigued and you see how quickly he got off there he's like all right can't be interested
have to go stock talk quickly we don got to go too deep into it.
I don't know how much you're watching it.
There is some geopolitical stuff going on.
I know that's something you've watched in the past.
Do you have any thoughts in that direction?
I didn't see it. What happened?
A lot of stuff is more so...
No, no.
It's around Israel and Iran is where the rumors are.
The U.S. had a couple bases in the middle east
that they were like repositioning like the port staff and like friends and family of staff to
move them out of it um there was just movement around and people were prognosticating we'll say
we're thinking that that is what the some of the thought process was going around we were just
talking there it's not soup it doesn, maybe it's not super imminent.
Maybe it's imminent.
To that effect, I actually noticed something about that.
I'm actually glad you brought that up.
Because Trump's last White House, I don't even know what to call these.
I guess White House interviews that he does.
Is that the right term for it?
Whatever, White House PR things that he does every other day.
The last one, they asked him about the Iran deal.
And he said, I tweeted this out when it came out, but he said something like, oh, Iran has changed their attitude.
They're being more aggressive in the talks.
They're not coming to the table.
And I thought that was weird because he sort of brought that up. Like it wasn't relevant to the
question he was asked. I forgot the question he was asked, but it wasn't relevant to the question
he was asked. So I thought it was weird that he brought that up. And then I thought about it for
a second. And I remembered his earlier comments when he said, hey, if Iran cooperates and signs
a deal from us, then we won't have to strike them.
But if they don't, then we might have to do the hard option.
He kept referring it to as like the hard way.
If the U.S. was going to strike Iran, they would probably do it through the Israeli proxy because Israel wants that.
And that way the U.S. can off-burden the fallout, like the political or narrative fallout and just be like, oh, Israel wanted to do it and we had to let them do it for their national security interests.
So we allowed it. That would be the best way to play it from the U.S. national security standpoint. if it's true that the Iranians are not willing to back off the enrichment clause,
which for people who don't follow the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations,
the biggest difference between the deal the Obama administration signed
and the deal that Trump wanted to change in his first term
term and now wants to change more aggressively against Iran. The big difference is Obama was
and now wants to change more aggressively against Iran,
okay with them having a uranium enrichment clause and Trump is not. There are other differences,
but for the purposes of this conversation and for the purposes of what most people should be
paying attention to, that's what matters. So the enrichment clause basically says the Iranians can
enrich uranium for energy purposes, but obviously can't use it for weapons purposes.
purposes or, and this has been detailed in many U.S. national security briefings, what they think
the real risk is, is that Iran could pass enriched uraniums onto non-state proxies that would then be
able to attempt to develop a nuclear weapon and use it for terroristic purposes. That, according
to U.S. national security briefings, is what they are concerned about, more so than Iran themselves as a state weaponizing enriched uranium.
Because for those who know about Iran's modern political history, they like to use proxies.
I mean, everyone does. We do it too. Russia does it as well. But they particularly like to use
proxies to accomplish objectives, even though they don't do, I would say, a great job of obfuscating
the connection between those proxies and the Iranian government. They do a pretty poor job
of that. So they essentially operate through obvious proxies, like the Houthis, for example,
which many people have heard of in the media for the last several months. So long story short,
Iran wants to enrich uranium because they were allowed to enrich uranium under the original
Obama deal. The Trump administration finds that unacceptable. And the Iranian government thinks
that it is a, I guess, too tall of an order for them to not be able to enrich uranium because it
takes away their energy security and their view and takes away their ability to develop nuclear
power plants and so on. So we'll see. I don't know. Yeah. If they don't budge, then yeah, there may be kinetic action. Do I think of kinetic action on a regional basis as a market risk? That's a more complicated
question. Generally speaking, historically, regional conflict is good for the markets.
I'm not minimizing the human cost, but markets tend
to overlook regional conflict. You've seen many examples of this in the past several years. You
don't need to take my word for it. You can look at how the markets reacted to Russia, Ukraine
initially and what they did in the six months after. You can look at how the markets reacted
to Israel, Gaza initially and look what they did in the six months after. That should be a good
enough example for you. But if you really want to, you can go back, plenty of sites and data pools that show this and look through all the history
of regional kinetic conflicts and how the U.S. markets responded to them. U.S. markets tend to
brush that off. Why? Because the United States is relatively immune to, you know, an invasion of our
homeland. Now, you know, whatever, we're going to have a World War III conversation. But, you know, an invasion of our homeland. Now, you know, whatever, we're going to have a World War III conversation.
But, you know, at that point, everything's fucked.
So there's no point in even going there.
But that's why our markets tend to brush off regional conflicts in other parts of the world
where they feel like the United States is isolated from them.
Could a conflict in Iran evolve into a larger conflict?
in Iran evolve into a larger conflict? Yes, obviously. You know, Russia and China have
Yes, obviously.
backed Iran at times. And other times, Russia has been more standoffish about it. But they've
both backed Iran at times. And the United States obviously backs Israel. And so if those two
proxy nations were to get into a conflict, then you could see a bigger conflict. But
I mean, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.
This kind of goes back to the thing I always say on these spaces
when we have these conversations.
I'm happy to give my opinion on it.
I'm happy to chat about it.
I'm happy to speculate.
But it doesn't do you a great service as a portfolio manager
of your own portfolio to try to worry about these things.
Why?
Because you never know when they're going to happen.
You never know if they're going to happen. One of my favorite memes about the market is the nothing ever happens
memes, where people like, I don't know if people have ever seen those, but it's just like,
shit, almost, almost happens. And then it doesn't happen. You know, like COVID, like,
there's this big market crash, and everyone's like, the world is over. And then within two
months, we were back to highs, and people were starting to leave their houses within four months after that.
And, you know, so on. Now we look back on COVID and some people are like, oh, my God, you know, the world panicked.
And same thing happens for everything, right? Like not everything, but most corrections in the markets end up being something that is eventually brushed off by the economy and the globe.
in the globe and we end up continuing higher three months later, six months later or whatever.
And we end up continuing higher three months later, six months later or whatever.
So these things will happen. There'll always be market risks. There'll always be war risks and
recession risks. These things will always exist, even in the most bullish environments.
Even when markets are at highs, savings are at highs, house prices are stable, rates are low.
Even when we're in those scenarios, there will still be red flags. There might be red
flags in consumer credit or commercial credit. There might be red flags in unrealized losses
for banks. There might be red flags in the geopolitical environment. These things are
always, always, always, always going to exist. You're never going to have a point in the markets
where you look around and go, there's nothing to worry about. There's nothing at all to be
concerned about. That's never going to never gonna happen so yeah they'll always be
concerns my philosophy on that and on trading investing in general is cross
the bridge when you come to it dance while the music is playing and it's the
best you can do you know we it's fun to chat about these things I like chatting
about them I like speculating and wondering what could happen but that's
about the extent of the usefulness of it. You shouldn't use it to guide your
decision making. You know, if you're somebody that's like, you know, I
am long all these stocks and I heard them on stocks on
spaces talking about Israel might strike Iran. I better sell everything.
Like if that's your attitude towards what
happens in the world, you're probably not going to make it and invest it.
You know, you'll get shaken up by all sorts of things if that's your attitude.
So don't have that attitude.
You know, look around the markets, look for queues in the stocks that you own.
See if they're holding up.
And if everything looks fine and dandy, then you can chill.
And until it doesn't, then you can compensate and adjust
your portfolio afterwards. You know, I brought up that example earlier about how I failed to hedge
during the deep seek, but did how it hedged during the tariffs. That's a great example of that. I
wasn't risk prepared as early as I could have been. But still, I eventually went and managed
my risk and ended up saving my portfolio a significant amount of headache during April and March.
So, you know, you can choose to just go balls to the wall and ignore everything that's happening in the macro.
That's not an approach I would advocate for.
What I think is, is you go dance with the music and just pay attention to what's happening in the backdrop.
And when something does happen, not when something might happen or could happen, but when something does happen, then you compensate.
Are you going to nail the top with that attitude? No, you're not going to nail the top with that attitude.
attitude. I can tell you that right from the get go. But you're also not going to miss out when the
I can tell you that right from the get go.
market just continues to swing to the upside. And you're sitting on the sidelines because you were
worried that there might be a recession, or you were worried that Israel might strike Iran. And
you're sitting there scratching your heads like how is the Nasdaq up 100% in three years?
Right, but it is. So, you know, I don't know. You can you can choose to just forego and sit on the sidelines.
But if you take that attitude, you'll end up doing that for way too long and you'll end up missing on massive periods of compounding on the markets.
You know, there's people that have sat out that on Twitter that I see all the time talking about these permit beers who have sat out of the markets,
have sat at a risk for four or five years consecutively.
Because they're like, it's going to come down.
It's going to come down.
Recession is coming.
You know, 2020, they said this.
2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025.
Markets just ripping, ripping, ripping.
Stocks up 100, 203.
Like, if you want to sit on the sidelines during that, sure.
But I don't.
You know?
I don't.
That's where life-changing money is made.
And you get probably four or five bull runs like that in your lifetime.
So you miss one.
OK, you know, are you going to do the same thing during the next one?
That's up to you.
Right.
But markets broadly go up.
They broadly go up.
I mean, there's going to be tough periods.
There's going to be brutal three month periods.
There's going to be brutal quarters. There's going to be tough periods there's gonna be brutal three-month periods it's gonna be brutal quarters gonna be brutal years sometimes like 2022 you don't have to go
too far back in your memory to remember 2022 just a couple of years ago that was a brutal year for
most stocks for most of the year but if you toughed it out the reward in 2023 and 2024 was historic
it was one of the best two-year returns for the market ever.
So if you stuck it out during 2022 and didn't get shaken out of your long-term stocks, you were paid for that patience in 2023 and 2024.
You were rewarded for that patience and that resilience.
And the market will continue to reward you over that indefinitely for the rest of your life if you're patient.
That's not my opinion.
That's just how it is.
Go look at the S&P 500 all-time chart.
Recessions, depressions, world wars, credit events, bank dissolutions, the biggest companies in the world dropping 90% in a year.
Up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up, up,
decade after decade after decade, rip, rip, rip, rip. More people want equities. More people own
equities. 65% of American households now own equities. 5 million retail accounts getting
open a year. You think the train is going to stop? Now we have the government talking about
giving every baby in America $1,000 spy account. Like, you know, what are we talking about?
Like, do you think this,
if you look at this as a momentum chart,
the interest in equities
and the accessibility to equities,
if you look at that as a momentum chart,
would you short it?
I wouldn't.
You know, in COVID, we had what?
8.5 million new retail accounts open.
And since then, it's been parabolic.
Just look at Robinhood stock if you want any evidence of it.
You know, so this democratization of access brokerage is accelerating.
And now U.S. brokerages are going international with that democratization of access.
The U.K., Europe, Asia, Singapore, commission-free brokerages are opening up in these countries
with U.S.-listed stocks. In fact, I was talking to a buddy who was just in India.
There's companies going into India now offering the top 80 most liquid U.S. stocks to Indians
who want to invest in the U.S. stock market. You go around the world, you ask people,
hey, which stock market do you want to invest in? 95% of people are going to tell you in America.
You know, in spite of the fact that we're already the biggest and richest economy we're not necessarily
the fastest growing in the world but everyone still wants their money here and the more those
people have access to it like you think that's going to make the market go down you know stocks
i another one great quote that i love and one of my hedge fund mentors, Rob, he used to be on Twitter.
I don't know if he's here anymore.
I'll only tell you guys his first name.
But he used to tell me all the time, stocks are just tickers with a story at the end of the day.
And there's only so many shares available.
That's it.
And that's the perfect reason why these stocks we were just talking
about earlier, space stocks, nuclear stocks, quantum stocks, why they keep going parabolic,
because people want exposure to these themes. And there's only so much pure exposure available.
You can think about the market like that as a vehicle in general, there's only so much exposure
to America available, period.
You know, and people want it. And as soon as the liquidity comes back in the system, they rush to get it. It's like a drug. You know, the second QE or rate cut start, people rush into
these risk assets. They sprint. They can't even go any faster. You know, you look at the point
where QE and rate cuts started in COVID and you look at
the parabolic V-shape recovery and equities from there, that's a demonstration of that attitude.
You know, people couldn't even wait. They got their stimmy checks. The first thing they did
is dumped it into their brokerage accounts, bought meme coins or NFTs or whatever the fuck
they wanted to buy. Like, that is risk attitude. Americans love risk. American culture loves risk.
You know, our stock market is big, the biggest in the world for many reasons. You know, American ingenuity, American exceptionalism. I believe in all these things. You know, I think we have the best capital environment, the best, most supportive tax and business policies, broadly speaking, for a developed country.
oddly speaking, for a developed country. And all of these things have factored into it.
But one key element of the fact that U.S. markets just rip and rip and rip to the upside is Americans
in our culture, in our DNA, have an appetite for risk and an attitude for risk. It's the reason
why all the greatest innovators of the modern era were Americans. All the greatest companies
of the modern era are American companies, by far, 23 out of the top 25 in the world are American companies,
built by American innovators and American entrepreneurs.
You can't say that's a coincidence, that one nation on Earth holds 60% of the global market cap.
It's not a coincidence.
And that attitude, that appetite for risk is the same reason we have 70 percent of the world's VC dollars in one country.
Why? Because we have an appetite for risk.
People in this country are willing once they make 10 or 15 million dollars to throw five million dollars at a pre-revenue speculative private company because they want to take the risk.
Because they want to take the risk.
You know, Justice Palmer with Starfighters, who took me and Evan and Gov and all of us to the Kennedy Space Center to watch the Starfighters flight.
He's a great example of that.
He's a guy that made great money in the financial world, great money in traditional finance, and then went and started his own VC fund.
And he's taking these high-risk asymmetric bets in new industries.
He did it in marijuana.
He did it in lithium.
He's doing it in space now. He did it in marijuana. He did it in lithium. He's doing it in space now.
That's the American attitude. That's what separates us from the pack. That's why our
companies grow the fastest. That's why people are willing to bid up, fund companies before
they've ever made a dollar. You look at OpenAI's funding rounds, the first four of them. That
would have never happened in any other nation
on earth.
People were throwing tens, hundreds of billions of dollars in valuation at a company that
was making a couple of billion dollars, not in profit, but in revenue annually.
Only in America can that happen.
Literally only in America.
If you took a Chinese company that was making $4 billion in revenue a year with no profit,
do you think it would have raised money the way OpenAI did?
Absolutely not.
Absolutely not.
Do you think if a European company was doing $4 billion in AI revenue
and wanted to raise it at a $300 billion valuation,
or whatever OpenAI is valued at now that they could do it?
But OpenAI can do it because they're an American company led by an American entrepreneur with a team of American
engineers and the globe gives value to that. Not us. The world grants value to that. You know? So
yeah, we're the fucking best. I don't even know where I was going with this. Where did this,
I don't even know how I got on this topic. Yeah, America.
We started on the
geopolitical stuff.
Yeah, okay, yeah.
I don't know how we got here from there,
but I tend to do that, so I don't know.
But yeah, go America.
Is tonight a good night to post that one video again?
You know which one I'm talking about.
I love it.
That was a good diatribe.
I like it.
Yeah, I just love this country, and I think we are exceptional.
And I don't think it's cocky or arrogant for us to say that, to be honest,
because the proof's in the pudding.
Absolutely.
No, like what I did today when I saw that, the market was at its high,
and I saw that come across the tape because I have it right there in front of me.
And, you know, you know me, I'd trade an NQ all day and, you know, longer term positions I don't even look at.
And over the last probably seven trading days, I've been starting to buy short term VIX, which was it had a June 20th expiration.
And today I'm like, I got nine days. Like this
is like, and I'm funding it with profits. And, you know, I went from, you know, 50 contracts
today to the top to 150 contracts. And then we got that news and the market rolled over a little
bit. And at the same time, I bought 50 Julys and sold my entire June position today
at a profit. Now did I kill it? No but I made 30 percent and I actually moved that risk that I like
you know I moved my risk and it's kind of like having a put on the market you know what I mean
to another month so now I got another you know 39 days which is you know what I mean? To another month. So now I got another, you know, 39 days, which is,
you know, awesome. Like, because like the market doesn't go up forever and fall and you can't
really sell a dull, low volume market short. So like, that's how I do it for a short term trader.
And it's like, kind of like swinging a little bit But, you know, I felt like really good about, you know, you get confidence in that and you keep doing it as long as it keeps working, as long as you get that opportunity.
And the market really went nowhere today. Right. It went nowhere.
And after Oracle probably opened much higher tomorrow.
And, you know, and but like I feel like I'm in a better position.
I was looking for an opportunity because I was running out of time and time
gives you opportunity, right?
Did Frank turn out or is that me?
Sound like he got a phone call
give it half uh half another second here
i definitely think it is is definitely something to keep an eye on
no and you look at valuations around the world you look at valuations around the world, you look at private companies around the world, I think there was a magnitude more unicorns in the US
worth more than a billion dollars.
I think it was like 1,500 US companies
worth more than a billion dollars
versus like 1,200 in Europe.
And then China was like 3,400 or something like that.
It's even that culture aspect of it.
It is interesting to see these larger and larger companies staying
private. I wonder if OpenAI,
I wonder when a SpaceX is going to end up coming
public, what valuations that might be.
Seems like we're setting up for some
possible trillion dollar IPOs.
Yeah, the SpaceX IPO,
the Andro IPO,
these will be... Well, Andro's going to be small. Andro's
only like a $14 billion company.
If Andro went public today, the market cap would 3x in a month.
Today.
Today.
Okay.
I genuinely mean that.
The attitude about that company is so ferociously bullish.
Like, people really believe in Palmer Luckey.
I believe in him too, frankly.
I think he's very, very smart.
I like a lot too, frankly. I think he's very, very smart. I like a
lot of his takes. But I mean, look, people are desperately searching on the public markets for
any way to get exposure to that company. Like Archer Aviation, which I've been talking about
these last couple of weeks, I actually think Joby's a better, more developed eVTOL company.
But I always trade and prefer Archer whenever I do play this theme,
because Archer has the direct connection to Androil, because they're developing a military
eVTOL with Androil. So for me, you get that thematic energy on top of the technical setup.
You know, I did a tweet a few weeks ago, and I talked about this idea that, look, the best stocks
are not just the best, the stocks with the best charts, the best stocks are the best, the stocks with
great charts that are also in great themes and have solid individual stock catalysts
and have promising fundamental narratives.
Those are the best stocks.
If you just go through a pile of 100 different stocks sitting tightly above the 9 and 21 EMAs and you bought them all, you know, and they had the exact same or relatively the same technical setup, relatively the same volume profile, you could find 100 stocks like that.
You bought them all.
You look at performance on a one-month basis, they'd be dramatically different, right?
Because the technical setup isn't everything.
I agree that it's hugely important. I never buy a stock without looking at the chart setup isn't everything. I agree that
it's hugely important. I never buy a stock without looking at the chart. I want to be clear about
that. But it's not the only thing that matters if you want to find the super performing stocks.
Right? If you want to find, and in modern markets, there are a lot of super performing stocks. Don't let people convince you that it's a rarity.
Once you go into the $500 million to $10 billion market cap range, that's a pretty wide range. You
don't have to go with small caps. You can go with mid caps instead if you're a more risk tolerant
person who doesn't want stocks that move as aggressively. The stocks in that range move incredibly well. And they also have more
room for speculation. You know, when you're a $500 billion company, and you want to become a
$600 billion company, you need to make shit happen. Okay, when you're a $2 billion company,
and you want to become a $3 billion company, you just need to drop a really, really good catalyst.
and you want to become a $3 billion company,
you just need to drop a really, really good catalyst.
That's it.
And the market will expand your multiple
based on the value of the catalyst, right?
Understanding that multiple expansion
is not an objective thing
is a very important thing to realize.
And again, whenever I'm talking, guys,
I'm talking about individual stock traders, okay?
Because that's what I am.
I trade individual stocks only.
I don't trade the indexes.
I don't trade, you know, ETFs really.
Occasionally, I will.
It's like if I want to get leverage on something, I might trade a leveraged ETF, like a 2X or 3X ETF, like some of the partners that we have.
But outside of that, I generally trade individual stocks for the vast majority of my
trades and my investments. And so I'm always speaking from an individual stock perspective.
I want people to realize that. But when you're looking at individual stocks and you're like,
okay, I want to find an opportunity where the multiple can expand. a lot of people get trapped in that mentality
because they don't understand how multiple expansion works.
Multiple expansion is variable.
There's no hard rule.
There's no calculator online
where you type in a company's earnings
and it gives you the multiple that the company should be.
That doesn't exist.
Okay. Multiples are like price multiples are a very fluid thing. The most useful way that people look at them in the objective lens is when they say, what is the market trading at? What is the
S&P 500's multiple? That can be useful. Okay. But on an individual stock basis, it's far less useful. And here's why. Opportunity
is inherently subjective. Okay. Some people think when a company is building a new product,
that product might be worth a billion dollars. Other investors might think that product might
be worth $10 billion. Some investors might think over five years, that product might be worth $50
billion. I'm just throwing random numbers out there, by the way, for an example.
But the point is, is that investor speculation on the forward earnings power of a new product
or a new service or a new offering is inherently subjective because we don't know what's going
to happen in five years, right?
No one does.
So people are projecting, they're guessing, they're years, right? No one does. So people are
projecting, they're guessing, they're modeling, right? And they have different factors in their
models. That reality alone, the fact that the forward estimates are variable means that you
cannot reliably calculate expected multiples on an individual stock ever. The multiple comes
from multiple things. It comes from the earnings power,
no pun intended, comes from the earnings power. It comes from the total revenue. It comes from
the revenue growth. It comes from the ability to retain market share. It comes from products
in the pipeline that may be exciting, i.e. Tesla and Palantir. Tesla and Palantir are not trading
on their current balance sheets. Neither of those stocks are. But they're still holding up. Why? Because the multiples that
they're trading at are not multiples on the existing business. They're multiples on the
forward potential. And you can't put a number on that. The market tells you what that number is
through price. All the market participants go and buy and sell the stock. And where it settles is
what the market is telling you that forward potential is worth, according to the market participants go and buy and sell the stock and where it settles is what the market is telling you that forward potential is worth according to the market at that current
time and that changes right when the narrative gets worse or the idea that the product might
launch successfully becomes less likely what happens the stock goes down aka the multiple
compresses right so multiple compression and expansion is not something you
can determine through a calculator it is something that is subjective and because it is subjective
it leaves room for speculation on individual stocks that's why you see these names that have
no revenue at all trading at eye-boggling valuations because the people investing in those stocks believe
that forward potential is worth X amount of money, and they land at a valuation that way.
So you can't use the idea of the PE is getting high to be your guide in trading and investing
if you want super-performing stocks, because typically the super-performing stocks have
one thing in common.
They're expensive. Their valuations are astronomical but they keep going up they continue to lead the market just
like robin hood and palantir did just like even to some people think nvidia's valuation is eye
catching the multiple isn't but their valuation certainly is eye catching and that continues to
be resilient.
You know, so on and so on.
The small modular reactor plays that have no revenue.
The quantum plays that have no revenue.
Valuation is resilient across the board for 18 months straight.
Why?
Because speculators are allowing that to happen.
And understanding that is important.
If you want to just continue to be in stocks for the rest of your life that just perform with the index and they do okay and go up, that's great too.
You can be a very successful passive investor just buying quality stocks, big stocks, mag seven stocks and just sit in them.
You do great doing that.
In fact, I always say this.
That's what most people should do.
But if you do want to be the guy that goes and picks stocks and you will really do your purpose of that is finding the best ones, you have to keep things like this in mind. And that's the only way you're going to be able to stay in the trade. Otherwise, you would have sold half of the
best performing stocks in this market a year ago when they were a third of the price that they are Yeah.
You know,
I struggle with some of these pre-revenue companies, though.
Yeah.
I find it gets taken to the extreme, though.
And you always talk about, you know,
people giving a reason to speculate.
And I feel like a lot of times people like to speculate without that reason.
That's where my caveat would be, is at least, you know, get given a reason to speculate. And I feel like a lot of times people like to speculate without that reason. That's where my caveat would be,
is at least get given a good reason.
I get the...
I think the nuclear ones, I get it.
Quantum ones lose me a little bit.
Maybe Jensen talking could be a reason to get into it.
But there's just so many different themes right now
that are pretty freaking out that I just can't touch.
I'm curious what you just said.
So you just said, for the nuclear themes, I kind of get it.
The quantum ones, I don't.
What's the difference to you there?
The honest truth is I wouldn't invest in either.
I don't think either are great technologies.
I think the nuclear one is a lot easier of a sell.
Like, it's clear of, hey, we need more clean energy.
Here's a good example of it.
You know, how can this technology is 60, 70, 80 years old?
It makes sense to update it and go from there.
Now,
what's the business use cases of that? I don't know. But it feels like a much more easy to understand thing. Whereas quantum, I don't even get what we're fixing. I don't even get what
problems are happening or anything like that. And I haven't heard anyone really tell me much about
it. So I just, I don't know. I agree with you on that. And I think that's important to keep in
mind too.
You know, when the markets do eventually correct,
those stocks will get hit the hardest, right?
Like when multiple compression does happen,
when the markets decline,
the stocks that have nothing to back themselves up
in terms of real monetary value will decline the hardest.
So absolutely, you know,
it's part of the reason why I was talking about SMR earlier.
That's a pre-revenue one.
We got a double on that in the month and I got out.
I'm not trying to be an investor in that yet.
You know, maybe one day when they have commercialized technology and I can get a better feel of what it'll look like as an investment, then I'll become an investor.
But like Centris Energy, for example, that's a revenue producing nuclear company.
That's different.
That I am investing in.
Right.
So I agree with you.
The pre-revenue ones aren't ones that you probably want to invest in there's gonna be a lot of aqua and SMR
investors out there that are probably like what the hell are you talking about
but I personally don't want to invest in a company at a 10 or 11 billion
valuation that has no revenue will I trade it absolutely I'll trade it if
it's setting up just like we traded SMR but yeah you're right and with that with
the quantum companies look I understand what the promise of quantum computing is, but you're right. It could be three years away. It could be five years. It could be 10 years away. We don't know. You know, but for now, the market's really interested in it. Right. And sometimes what happens is the market pumps these themes up and people think it's just hype. And then some really, really big news comes out about the sector six months later or a year later. Sometimes it is in the charts before it happens.
You know, technical traders say that all the time. I sort of joke about it. You know, I don't think
it's always in the chart, but sometimes it is in the chart before it happens. And, you know,
I sort of think with nuclear that happened last year, you know, prior to the Constellation Energy deal.
Like part of the reason we were able to capitalize on it so well was those charts were setting up right before the Constellation Energy deal.
Then the Constellation Energy deal hit and the stocks ripped for like six months straight.
Like they just didn't stop.
And then you kept getting new catalysts, data center signing new nuclear power agreements, Susquehanna Nuclear Center getting expanded, this, this, that, like week after week.
And then you had to pause for a few months.
And then what happened this year?
You got even more catalysts to the nuclear sector with the executive orders and, you know, Oclo getting this contract with the Air Force and, you know, Centris Energy being the only U.S. enriched uranium player.
Like all these stories started emerging this year that drove those stocks even higher, you know.
And, you know, who knows?
Maybe in the future there'll be another catalyst.
But that's sometimes how it happens with these mega themes is it starts off as just hype and speculation and then things start happening.
and then things start happening.
And this is the last thing I'll touch on
because I know we've ran this a little bit over,
but the mechanism of that happening
is actually like the self-fulfilling prophecy
of stocks in the first place.
Like stocks operate on this,
like when a company is young
and they are trading at X valuation.
In fact, let's use Anderil as an example,
because I just mentioned earlier
that I thought the stock would 3X if they IPO'd today.
Ben, I do believe that.
But let's use that as an example.
So Evan, you said they're trading
at like a $14 billion valuation or whatever.
So Anderil's potential
as a $14 billion private company
is probably still great.
They're in a lot of sectors.
They develop their own technology, right?
Maybe they'll get to a year from now a 25 billion valuation and another year from now
maybe they'll get to 50 billion dollar valuation, right? And as they get bigger,
you know, the rules of capitalism will kick in. You can raise more money, you have more leverage,
you can build bigger factories, you can have more scale because you're a more valuable company you can go to the banks hey we're 50
billion dollar company now we need to raise a billion dollars they'll cough it
up so it increases your ability to leverage capital as you become more
valuable so sometimes what happens is in speculative industries and this is not
sometimes it actually happens frequently in speculative industries, and this is not sometimes, this actually happens frequently, in speculative industries, a perceived market leader's valuation will get bid up.
And it'll get bid up so high that as a consequence of their valuation skyrocketing,
they are able to leverage capital in an exponentially larger way and out-compete
in areas they would not have otherwise been able to out-compete
at if they were still sitting at a $14 billion valuation.
And that is a self-fulfilling prophecy because it's like market bids up stock on hype.
Company is now bigger.
Company now has more capital leverage through which to execute.
And as a consequence of that, company gets even bigger,
gets even more hype,
gets even more capital leverage,
uses that capital leverage to compete,
gets even bigger,
gets even more hype, etc.
That's what happens with a lot of these companies.
In fact, it's happened with Palantir in the last year.
Okay?
It happened with Tesla in 2018, 2019, 2020. You know, Tesla's ability to leverage
capital in 2017 was dramatically different than their ability to leverage capital after the
company became a $600, $700 billion company in 2020, right? The market cap 10X in four years,
that changes things. All of a sudden it's like,, oh, shit. They went from being, oh,
is Tesla going to go bankrupt in 2016, 2017, people were talking about, to in 2021, one of
the biggest companies in the world. So I do agree. Hype is dangerous. I do agree that in bad market
environments, pre-revenue names are probably not what you want to own. They'll get hurt really bad.
But I also do think sometimes hype is a self-fulfilling prophecy. And sometimes
attention and capital flow into an industry is precisely what makes the industry in the first
place. And it happens a lot more than people think. It happened with automobiles too in the
early 1900s. That's probably the earliest modern example of it, where after Ford started producing
the Model T on the assembly line, the capital investment flow into automobile manufacturing globally went up 600% in two years.
After Henry Ford did that, everyone was like, oh, shit, we can get rid of the horses. And you had this flash moment all over the world from 1905 to 1920,
15-year period, where you had 600% growth the first two years and like an 80% kegger,
not in just automobile proliferation, but in the capital flow into the automobile industry.
Think about how quickly the infrastructure was built around the automobile industry,
the interstate highway system, gas stations everywhere.
This all happened in a very, very short relative period of 15 to 20 years.
You know, hundreds of billions of dollars of infrastructure rollout, capital investment,
structure rollout, capital investment, stock soaring, those sort of things, you know,
help things happen more quickly than they may have expected to happen.
And that's part of the reason why I think the stock market is the greatest ally to technology
that we have. It gives technology companies the ability to just have unlimited capital power.
You know, all the Meg7 guys, they have unlimited capital power, they can do whatever they want, buy whoever they want, start whatever new business they want.
That's good for technology. Is it also good for the oligarchy to an extent? Yeah. And that's a
separate argument. But it's good for technology, because it ensures the perpetual advancement of
technology. And it ensures the perpetual flow of capital into technological innovation, which is a good thing for the world.
You know, I know a lot of people complain about the way things are, but as a result of technology over the last 25 years, more people have more stuff than ever before.
You know, more people have access to food and technology than ever, ever before.
And that's a good thing.
You know, we're not perfect, but, you know, technology will help us get closer to that point.
All right, we're coming up on the point. I got a live stream that I got to start preparing for
coming up here in a couple of seconds. I'm going to have to jump off here. If you do enjoy these
live conversations, make sure you're following the host of the Spaces. We're live every single
Monday through Thursday, 3 to 5 p.m.m eastern at least which means we're going to be
back live same time same place again we got a lot of talks some rants and get back and forth
and days like today where we have some good talks uh there's a lot of stuff going on so
i appreciate everyone make sure you're following speakers stock talk is there any other uh
any other things points you want to touch on here any other final words things you're looking for
tomorrow morning obviously we got PPI
I think tomorrow's a 30 year auction
It was Adobe earnings after the close as well
Some stuff going on
I know you were going to just say you're a catalyst guy
and don't watch any of it, but anything you want to leave the people with?
I talked enough today
See you guys tomorrow
Pacers or Thunder tonight?
Give me the Thunder.
Yeah, it's a tough one.
It's first game back in Indiana,
but the Thunder is a little...
It's a tough call.
Pacers money line.
Pacers are actually home dogs.
I think it's like plus 180.
Plus five and a half.
Maybe you take Oguistee and hedge it with a
Halliburton game winner.
Bro, for real, right?
Okay, I stopped myself
from a meme there. Let's move on.
Pacers
will go over and then
I'd like to Halliburton over too. SGA's
going to get us 30.
Don't do a parlay anyway. I'm waiting
for Robin Hood for my odds to go a little bit more
in the favor and then
go from there.
It is fun. I don't know if
you're not as much of a trader, Evan.
You're getting into it a little bit, but it's fun
to live
grade those prediction markets during these games.
It really is. We literally sit there like Paper Gaines and me and several other
Sam Solid. We sit there and we'll be like, alright, buying the dip. Here's the dip. We want it.
Or whatever. It's hilarious.
Robin Hood should put a VWAP on that chart.
Robin Hood should put a VWAP on that chart.
Oh, on the...
What's it called?
The prediction markets.
Yeah, I find them interesting.
I wish there was more options on it, but we'll see.
I'm sure they're making some nice money on it.
Yeah, well, all I really want to know
is if they're going to have the NFL games.
At least... If we have to wait until the playoffs, it really want to know is if they're going to have the NFL games. At least
if we have to wait until the playoffs, it's no fun.
But if they have
even if they just started with Monday Night Football
each week, I think it would be huge.
I think they will.
We should ask that next time.
All right.
I'm going to be doing a live stream.
Yeah, we appreciate you.
Always great having you on here.
I know you were hosting some stuff.
I am going to be doing a live stream in like 10 minutes or so with Brad and
Tanner from Future Investing.
So that should be interesting.
I'm going to have to go and defend my Apple again.
What channel?
Group of people who hate it.
I will be live on.
We're going to go live everywhere.
So it should be on my ex.
Perfect. All right. I'll be watching for that. I'm glad I got in here in time for Stock Talk Rant. Good show. we're going to go live everywhere those should be on my ex perfect alright
I'll be watching for that I'm glad I got in here in time
for Stock Talk Rant good show
I appreciate you guys
have a great one team
follow speakers
have a nice Thank you. Thank you.
