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STOCK MARKET TALK | $BTGD
Recorded: July 2, 2025 Duration: 2:34:58Space Recording
Full Transcription
All right, all right. right welcome everybody good afternoon happy wednesday kind of like a
little let's mute that a little thursday friday back from the stock market hope you guys are all
doing well interesting times interesting times apple looking pretty decent today you know i
wasn't going to start spaces without saying that nvidia tesla moving to the upside google's looking
pretty decent bringing qqs up about 0.7 qqq up about 0.7 percent i might have missed a q when
i said that before outperforming the s&p 500 which is up about 0.4 percent today a lot of green when
i look across my portfolio robin hood after a big shoot-up, a little pullback.
We're moving back higher today, up 6.5%.
Let's go, Robinhood!
Robinhood, that was an unexpected...
Yeah, never heard Stock Talk say something like that.
Robinhood, killing it.
98 broke over 100 today, first time.
What an absolute move.
Honeywell with a nice move i saw
a uh a wolfie post i won't dig too deep into that one one that i bought paul's on that isn't working
salesforce pain uh we'll move on from that swiftly because some of the stuff has been working google
and apple i appreciate y'all for joining us on this spaces let's let's kick it off with the person
who's generally the first person here pretty much every single time. A lot of times here before the co-host, Mr. Options Mike, how are you doing today, sir?
Kevin, I'm good. How are you doing, bud?
I am doing well. I am doing well. I am, you know, kind of excited for a little bit of like a three and a half day weekend, four and a half day weekend here. But also I've been trading a little.
My Apple's starting to move.
So I also don't want the market to close.
Conflicted.
What are you watching in this market?
I'm curious also,
have you been sizing down a little,
changing how you're trading,
given where we are with it being pretty much July 4th?
No, I have not.
Sizing up?
I'm longer now than I was a couple days ago yeah hey along some Apple right now because it would be a
good day for it I was I have been long stock since two days ago and I am sold
my calls I held overnight today I'm out of Apple calls at this point. But so, you know, yesterday
we came on here. We all talked. We had some great conversations. And, you know, we said it was
yesterday the start of a rotation or was a one day rotation. Right. Right now it looks like a one day
rotation. This market's relentless. And this is what happens when you have $7 trillion sitting on the sidelines that miss this ride and it's pissed off beyond belief, and they buy the shallows of dips and they come running back to the names that sold off because they're not getting the entrances they want.
Every time they think this market's going to go down, it runs back up.
And, you know, this is a Teflon market, Evan, right?
And, you know, this is a Teflon market, Evan, right?
Nothing bothers it.
ADP numbers today that were horrific.
Now, the market doesn't give ADP as much credit as it should, I think, sometimes.
But it doesn't matter.
We're getting on-farm payroll tomorrow.
And the market just said, yeah, we don't care.
The market doesn't care.
And, you know, you're in a melt-up mode.
At some point, we're going to come back in, right?
It always happens.
But until the music stops that
the trend is up and i see people trying to fight this and i'm like you know i wouldn't fight this
tape this is not a tape i would be sitting here trying to short um so for me it's it is definitely
a market name while the indexes are strong names are stronger uh i am longer more amazon august
calls today on that as it popped up i'm not happy the
way it's trading but it looks great uh what else did i trade i traded tesla pre-market i can use
tsl for that um had a nice trade on that on their delivery number uh you know uh the numbers as we
said were you know they weren't good but that you know that was i think built into the stock it's
just not going anywhere during market hours.
You got crypto running. You got the miners have woken up today. I didn't trade any,
but they're going nuts. Coins on the highs. MSTRs come running back, almost back up here.
I mean, you have some very whippy action here in this market, but overall, the trend tends to be up. I think you mentioned Google having a real nice day getting close to a breakout spot. Reddit had a big day.
I mean, it's really just a matter of looking around and finding what you like or don't like.
Now, tomorrow is going to be quiet.
We're going to have non-farm payroll.
We're going to have maybe some volume in the first half an hour or so.
And then the last two hours of the day or whatever it is, three hours of the day is going to be like, you know, stick a fork in me.
I'm done.
But, you know, this market is strong., I'm done. But, you know,
this market is strong. It wants to go up. Are we overdue for some type of pullback? Sure.
You know, will we get one eventually? Absolutely. Will it probably happen this month? Yeah,
I'd say probably sometimes in the second half of this month, this market will pull back. I mean,
the banks, you have Morgan Stanley hit a new all-time high today. Bank of America, Wells, Citigroup, new 52-week highs.
And, you know, the market just doesn't care.
So, no, I will start dialing it back probably into next week.
But right now, I'm not fighting this tape.
Not one little bit.
I've seen these melt-ups go on for way longer in the past.
in the past so just sitting tight what are some of the names you've been trading and playing in
So, just sitting tight.
has they changed at all um you probably wouldn't have been touching apple a couple weeks ago
no but i trade i've been trading apple three days in a row now right so i that was a so you know the
one thing you always have to realize as a trader or an investor or whatever is what we do is when you have a change in character in a stock.
Apple was left for dead, right?
Until Monday.
What happened on Monday?
That news, the market loved it.
It pushed up.
I went and bought my long-term account.
I bought a bunch of shares, threw it into there.
I traded stock on that move, and then i traded a whole bunch of
contracts since there i've traded one two three four four five times on apple in the last three
days made really nice money on it um i'm watching this gap at 215 but you know it's it's recognizing
the change in character and apple changed character on monday now you know it'll probably come up at
that 250 area area and pause for a bit but i've been trading that uh my longs you know, it'll probably come up at the 250 area and pause for a bit, but I've been trading that.
My longs, you know, these are, you know, I'm, my short-term longs is Amazon right now is the only short-term long I have, which is a swing trade on the, what are they?
Help me out here.
August 230 calls.
I have a bunch of them now.
My own positions I own, I own Amazon stock. I've been owning it for
months now. My average is 194.80. I no longer own NVIDIA. I own IBIT. My average is 56. I own
SPY at 530.84. I own the Qs at 551.22. I own Snow at 195.75. I still own Black Sky, although I sold a bunch of it at $11.64.
And I own Apple at $204.91.
So, you know, that's my positions right now.
And those are what I hold.
And I'll pull back.
At some point, I'll dump a lot of this.
And then on a pullback, I'll probably add a bunch more.
Oracle's setting up nicely going into the end of the week, by the way.
They had some good news.
Yeah. Interesting. So, you know, that's what I own. oracle's setting up nicely going into the end of the week by the way they had some good news yeah
interesting so you know that's that's what i own that's my cost basis so that's what you know my
members they all know what i have that's my cost business which is pretty good oh and i still own
ford but i'm so red on ford i don't bring it up anymore because it just makes me sad it just makes me sad. Fair. That is fair.
Appreciate you, Mike.
As always.
I don't remember who was next between Spartan or Urkel,
so I'm just going to go to Spartan.
How are you doing today, sir?
Not that I like him better, but that he was first.
Not that I don't like you better as well.
I'm good.
You know, it's been a little bit of time since I've joined this
because I was in Europe and a little bit busy.
Seven-month pregnant wife, right?
So there's a lot of stuff to prepare here.
But anyways, guys, let's kind of get into it.
So, you know, market, in my opinion, and what I've been telling my guys for the last month is every single dip into a support is an opportunity to buy, especially on the big cap, high-quality stuff.
And you're seeing a lot of names kind of change their
look off the lows that have been previously hurt you know i think rh is a prime example of that in
lulu where where they've crossed the 50 made of the upside off the lows i mean the daily charts
look fantastic from a risk ward standpoint um swing perspective to the upside and i think we
can see further continuation there uh market in general, the SPY looks great. It's grinding higher. Obviously, we have a holiday
week, which is usually pretty choppy. We like to keep it in the range. Right now, it's breaking
those all-time highs, which is great. And we'll see if we can get a little bit more continuation
tomorrow. But what I'm seeing is a lot of these mega caps that we're beating down, you're seeing
money rotate into them. And that's a, you know,
quite a big positive because it's a healthy sign of a healthier market.
You know, there's such a, I guess,
large amount of capital focused on what seven, eight stocks and the S and P.
And that drives the entire market.
So it's great to see that that that money can get spread around a little bit
more. It's, it's a lot more healthy for a continued push to the upside.
And I don't think
I'm going to change my narrative in that regard. Everything with tariffs, everything with all these
macro kind of events, I think they can produce those buying opportunities. I think a prime
example is you look at solar. That big, beautiful bill came out and solar got hammered. And look at
TAN right now, broke the weekly high. it's higher than where it was before then.
So there's a lot of opportunity in those short-term pullbacks and the
intake of batteries.
But I think you continue to buy those dips on the high quality stuff,
you know, of course,
control the risk until it stops working because it's worked extremely well.
And then, you know, trends tend to, to work until they don't.
So, and I, you know, just keep it simple in that regard you know i have a lot of traders you know
a couple of them ask me you know should we start hedging here and this and that i don't think so
i you know i think you just you ride the wave you move stops up you take profits as they come if
you're an auctions trader you ladder you roll out um you know you can sell you know you can put
yourself into debit spreads if you need to um and you can you know, you can sell, you know, you can put yourself into debit spreads if you
need to. And you can, you know, take some premium off and you can, you know, do that to control
risk a little bit more or use that as a hedge. But I think there's a lot of opportunity there.
So, you know, in general, I think everything's looking good. I don't think we've seen enough
rotation into some of the higher PE tech names. I mean, obviously, HUD's been a fantastic one.
Everyone's been talking about it. Everyone's been talking about it.
Everyone's been in that one from the most part, I can see across the board.
But there's still a lot of those names lagging.
I like PayPal here.
Daily chart looks fantastic.
Nice range break to the upside continuation.
I really like this bull.
I'm quite bullish on bull, I should say.
And I've been riding that one on the long side.
Equity and options, I think, look great.'ve been riding that one on the long side. Equity and
options, I think, look great. In the short term, they're quite cheap. So I think it's a decent one
to keep an eye on. But yeah, I mean, in general, I think market's healthy. I think we can see further
continuation higher. I think, you know, when we see these pullbacks in the short term from, let's
say it's, you know, macro news or geopolitical stuff, a lot of that is going to be buying opportunities
and i'll kind of leave you with one last thing i think kind of the last bullish catalyst for the
market is this you know the rate cuts and i think once the rate cuts happen i think it's actually
going to be a kind of a top signal in the short term for the market i think we'll see a pullback
after that market always needs something to
look forward to.
And as long as that continues to get kicked down the kick down the road,
I think we'll continue to push in anticipation of it.
and then,
you know,
we'll see what happens after that.
That's just what my intuition tells me,
but,
yeah,
that's kind of what I'm looking at for now,
guys.
I appreciate you Spartan.
Good to have you back up here.
There's got any reason to not be here, though. It's acceptable.
How are you doing, sir? We appreciate you for being here. What are you watching?
Thanks for having me on again. I'm just kind of, you know, I'm on the same like mind of the previous two speakers,
I'm on the same like mind of the previous two speakers just about this market trend and strength to the upside.
And the short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends do remain up.
And this market just continues to churn new highs and stocks continue to follow.
Last week when I was on the show, I was talking about on the show on Spaces with you.
I talked about Bitcoin and rotation into Bitcoin and the miners.
And we've seen some significant moves to the upside there.
I specifically covered the iron run, which was catching a bid and suggested that that could potentially ignite the rest of the sector too, of course, with that Coors news as well.
So we've been kind of playing the miners here, CIFR, Mara, and CLSK,
which were lagging the move, have caught up today
and both having some big 11%, 12% moves.
So playing the crypto run right now.
I also like Google, like options, Mike.
I mentioned this one on your show
last week as well at 165. That was a major support level and that is coming into a potential breakout
level above 180 to 182. Something I'm watching there, it rejected there at the start of the week
and dropped. I think it opened around 180, 181 this week and dropped but bounced very very nicely off that
174 175 support so i'm still in google as well nvidia i mean continues to trend higher amd which
i talked about the weekly breakout here several weeks ago continues to churn that needs to reclaim
about 140 141 and it looks like it's headed that way.
And if it can claim the 141 area,
I do still like that on the weekly chart up to about 160.
I'm still swinging some of those 116, 120 buys
I shared here a few weeks ago.
And Amazon, I like too,
but Amazon's stuck at this 225-ish resistance level,
which is a significant area
for it to reclaim in order to trend higher do me a favor would you give amazon a big kick in the
ass for me it could use one but you know it's doing it's doing what it needs to do and you know
for people that kind of like the less you know less violence in their portfolio if you will it's
that and google and nvidia have been trending really nicely.
It looks great.
It just can't quite get that kick out.
So, yeah, I agree with you.
But, I mean, long term, I have no concerns personally with Amazon
unless something concerning comes up in the next quarter or tariffs
or, you know, China deal falls apart or something.
I just, I'm a big Amazon fan.
So I've just kind of bought and been riding the wave off the 180s on that one.
But yeah, this crypto run, I mean, Iron's taken a break today.
It's taken a bit of a breather.
But I think last week when I talked about it here, it was trading around 10.50 and it
ran up to 16, which is, you know, retesting previous highs.
So it's taken a breather which is
good and the others are catching up there's high short interest in the bitcoin mining sector
so i do think you know i certainly wouldn't chase anything that's up 12 13 but if bitcoin can push
through this 109 110k resistance level it can break out on the weekly.
And if it does, it could ignite some of these crypto plays higher as well.
So MSTR, another one to watch as well.
So yeah, that's kind of where my head's at, playing these rotations.
I know the healthcare side's taken a beating today.
So I'm watching Oscar and HIMSS.
I know they're both very popular retail names.
They're quite crowded, but they're also coming
into some potentially opportunistic levels too.
And with heavy retail interest,
there could be some trades there.
I don't know about the long term,
but there could be certainly some nice trades
to catch there too.
So just kind of some of the things I'm watching here
as the market continues to trend higher
and we continue to have healthy rotations all around.
People are very ready to go into whatever names that they don't necessarily understand.
I don't know how many people actually know Oscar Health or just kind of see similar vibes to him.
I know you're a trader, so that's not necessarily what you're even looking for. Yeah. Yeah.
I find it intriguing. And you know, these, these crowded plays,
like the crowded plays, people always get hurt in them, you know,
especially when they get rallying, it's, it's always the same thing.
You get a few people talking about them. They get the big rally.
The rally catches fire. Now everybody in retail is an expert.
These ridiculous
price targets come out. And not to say that they're not attainable, you know, six months,
two years, four years down the road. But every time you start seeing that kind of stuff develop
and random accounts on Twitter posting these outrageous price targets, that's always a
warning sign to get out or at least tread cautiously.
And, you know, HIMSS dropped from 64 to 40, I think,
and Oscar's down 17.5% today.
And obviously there's some impact.
There's a catalyst there, yeah.
What happened?
Well, I think it was yesterday with the bill passing,
a lot of these healthcare, or not the bill passing,
but the bill passing, a lot of these healthcare, or not the bill passing, but the bill getting close.
Even UnitedHealth, which was trending very nicely up into the 320s yesterday, is down 5% too.
So there's a bit of a sector-wide hit there.
So yeah, keeping an eye on them.
Not sure how this bill progresses in the coming days.
I believe the rumor was that Trump was hoping to have it pass by July 4th. I could be mistaken. Political is reporting right now it's dead on arrival right
now in the House until they don't have the votes. But it doesn't mean it won't go forward. But at
the moment, it doesn't have the votes after two hours. So, you know, as a trader, like maybe
there's a bounce to catch on some of these health healthcare names here. Like Oscar right now is at 1686 and it's got some heavy support at 1660 and
it's down 18%. So, you know, maybe there's a reversal to catch there,
but I find, you know,
I'm more focused on strength in this market because it is trending higher,
but it is running on fumes too. But, you know,
key dips to key support levels without catalyst too. But, you know, key dips to key support levels without catalysts.
So, you know, dips happen.
Key dips into key fib levels or demand levels happen.
And as long as they happen in the absence of a catalyst
or a negative catalyst, generally speaking,
those dips are very much viable in this uptrend market.
So, again, those healthy healthy rotations if you will so
yeah i'll pass the mic off i've hogged it a bit
is that your smoke alarm at the end no there's like a screech okay not at my place
never know
um mike i want to come back over to you if there's any other thoughts you had.
I have a question or two, but anything standing out to you in the conversation so far?
Again, I think it's funny.
Everybody here is generally bullish.
We're all kind of on the same boat here.
There's a lot of negativity out there.
I'm like, yep, okay, keep it up.
The more negative people get, the more this market's going to go.
I mean, the market hit new intranet at all-time highs again today.
You know, this wouldn't be the sixth.
It's like, I get that maybe you are, you see negatives on the headlines.
Maybe you're looking for, you know, pullbacks.
But to be a bear in this market, it's just you're guessing what could happen,
not looking at the data in front of you,
which I know a lot of traders, you're talking about, hey, it's information.
Anytime – in fact, right now I'm having two discussions.
I'm talking to you.
I've also been talking in my room, and we're talking macro, and they were bringing up macro and fundamentals.
I'm like, I don't care about about macro fundamentals until it gets to an extreme.
And I don't mean that to be negative on it because they do serve a role and they are very important.
But when they get to an extreme, I start really paying attention.
But when the macro conversation is, yeah, this and the fundamentals are, yeah, they're stretched or whatever.
And the market doesn't care.
I just ignore it until it gets to an extreme level.
And that's what I look for.
But so here, the macro, there's some macro news, right?
You could take the taxing, the tariffs, all that, the house bill.
The fundamentals, yeah, the markets are getting stretched a bit.
The fundamentals, we're getting a little high, but they're not anywhere near.
This house bill is probably good for stocks.
In my mind, listen, if you're telling me we're printing more money and inflation and all that stuff, US stock market, megacab companies with pricing
power are probably the best place to hide out. I don't think that's bad for stocks.
Maybe it's bad for us. I'm not smart enough to understand everything
in that bill because it's 40-something thousand pages. But I will tell you this, the market's
not reacting. So I go with you, Evan, it's good for stocks.
I agree with you guys both.
Yeah, just to add on to that guys,
I mean, if the consumer has more money to spend,
they've got more money to invest, right?
Amen.
Just like the pandemic, all that money,
they had nothing else to do, where'd it go?
Right in the market.
Yep.
I just did my daily.
I'm doing my daily DCA right now, even here at all time highs.
Buy a little bit of QQQ.
I'm curious.
You know, there's a couple of these, obviously financials in the sector.
That's been pretty strong.
They had a lot of dividend and share buyback announcements yesterday.
The results from the Fed's bank stress test came out on Friday.
And yesterday, we got JP Morgan announcing a new $50 billion share buyback.
We got a lot of companies raising their dividends.
And I'm not fully surprised to see these names, which were acting strong near all-time highs,
doing them again.
Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, the big one, Goldman Sachs, all hitting new all-time highs doing them again morgan stanley jp morgan the big one
goldman sachs all hitting you all-time highs today that was an interesting area i don't know
if you guys have been paying attention to the financial side of this anyone trading over there
i'll tell you what on that dip in april i bought a couple hundred thousand of Goldman Sachs. I wish I would have bought hood,
but Goldman Sachs was like a no brainer under, I guess it was last year was trading even under
book value. So, I mean, it's just a matter of, if you believe the financials I put out
last week by DPST, it's a triple leveraged ETF on the regional banks.
And I think you're going to see some of the deregulation.
I don't think that the regional banks have actually caught up.
And I actually think with a dividend and the buybacks, these stocks just became cheaper.
So I think you see these start to actually catch up and start to outperform a little bit in the second half of the year.
But Evan, I only I only joined just because Apple's up again.
And that was I wasn't invited, but I did want to say.
And by the way, Mike, just to your point, I don't think half the senators know what was in that bill either.
Well, I would like to say I would bet you none of them senators know what was in that bill either. Well, I'd like to say.
I would bet you none of them know exactly what's in that bill.
Some of them even posted on X that, I think, was it Marjorie or somebody's like, if I had known this was in the bill, I would have never voted yes.
Like, aren't you supposed to read it?
Exactly. If I had a contract that I had to sign for my business and I was the representative of the business that was responsible for that and I didn't read it, I'd be fired.
Exactly.
So I don't understand how a senator doesn't pull the bill and get an offline language, a large language model. Pull it in. Let's explain it to these people like they're five-year-olds. I guarantee you half these people couldn't program a damn Roku device. And we're letting them figure this out. And then they're telling us they don't
know what's in the bill. That's my problem with this stuff. I think it's good for the market
until it isn't. And you guys just had a great discussion. And again, I only joined just because,
you know, hey, Apple's up. I'm happy. I will say, Stock Market News partner, perplexity.
Maybe you can come in here and fix a couple problems.
Maybe give some summaries.
You can ask me questions.
Reword the bill so anyone can understand, like a fifth grader.
I don't know.
It seems like a business opportunity.
There's no reason not to.
Even if I were a lobbyist in Washington, D.C., that's the first thing I would be starting
to do is starting to sell to senators, hey, we're going to have an offline large language
model that you can open up and your staff can actually do it so that it explains it
to a five-year-old.
And so that way, again, you can get a summary.
I do that with contracts all the time.
It's not that hard.
Is there anything else you're watching?
Anything else you want to talk about catching your, I know it's a little lower time.
I did post, which was funny.
I'm going over my Apple notes.
I keep all my podcast notes and Apple notes for every day.
And I'm just kind of cleaning them up.
And I had one from October 9th of last year. And I posted it if you just go to my Twitter and you can see it.
But there were like five stocks that are up like 300% and stuff that I've just been... I had these
notes just for myself to buy. And I think I bought two of them. I mean, again, I kind of point out to
myself, why the hell didn't I just buy them all? So I'm not necessarily looking at anything. I had some really good plays
this week with Red Robin Burgers, Endless Fries. Anybody like Endless Fries? That one I think is
in a short squeeze. It really went, it kind of took off. I wrote about it yesterday. And there
were a couple others that I wrote.
But honestly, I mean, if you're buying stock today, I know you're dollar cost averaging,
Evan. And I will tell you, the numbers point to just bulk buy at a certain time.
Dollar cost averaging works over time. But I think bulk buying, it's been shown in the numbers that
works better. If you're buying anything before a three-day weekend with Trump's tariff day coming up,
where we could have Liberation Day number two, I think you're crazy from a long term.
But it's pointed out to me many times on these spaces.
I don't use stocks to pay my rent.
This is long term.
I'm retired.
I'm 54 years old.
I'm retired.
I've got enough money to live the rest of my life.
So I may be in a different realm.
But if your timeline is more than a year, there's no reason not to buy today.
But if your timeline is in the next month or so, I don't know why you would be buying.
Time horizon is everything
appreciate you gary and obviously everyone feel free to jump back in
wolfie see you're joining us up here today how you doing i'm good man how are you we got a nice
honeywell post today and it reversed so i guess don't talk nice about it again please you're
welcome how you doing i mean it didn't really like mean, we're still only down like 0.15%.
No, it was extended on the daily.
That's why I used the weekly chart.
But it did break out on the weekly chart.
Nice.
That was a cool one to see this morning.
You know, Apple's doing good too.
But what are you watching in this market?
What's catching your eye?
Mostly selling stuff.
More of a net seller than buyer because of Housemask.
A lot of things ran.
I closed out the bulk of Apple.
I bought Oracle this morning against the prior highs.
Worked out trying to be like a 5X and an 8X.
A lot of these crypto lot of these like crypto
fomo names are pumping i mentioned sbet with you i think a couple days ago that one took off i think
it's like a derivative of the the tom lee thing um you know it's got a lot of got a lot of runway if they really juice it.
It really has a lot of upside if it's like into a gap.
And the gap fills basically in the 20s and stocks at like $12, whatever it's at.
Are you the unusual whale?
No, not on that, no.
But I could be.
He's halfway there.
He's unusual.
Yeah, that's true.
That's basically what I was going to say.
I was going to say I put the unusual in it.
I'm just trying to get myself 1% closer to Gary on a day-to-day basis.
That retirement, living the dream life.
But no, so outside of that, attention to you know any of these boring names that break out i think i mentioned oracle oracle probably
isn't as boring as some of the other ones but it's about to make an all-time high as we speak
um i liked the setup in fedex after earnings that one one's doing okay. Qualcomm actually looks okay.
If they can get above like 163 to 165, somewhere in there.
If they can get above 165, especially it's running.
That CRISPR that I bought.
Go ahead.
If Apple's going, your first look should be to Qualcomm.
That's kind of the logic.
Especially if it has a run.
That's kind of the logic.
And Qualcomm had a nice little run up here in the last few in the last few weeks at least um especially
you know uh after they had a sell-off after earnings it's just kind of like
slow and steady moved uh they had a headline back in early july stocks ripped it's back up against
those highs um so i kind of like the setup see if it
falls through on the on the monthly and weekly some of these quantum names look good ion q for
example looks good looks like a giant cup handle um i don't i don't really believe in the the
premise of it for like a long-term thing i'm just talking about it from a setup i don't care one way
or the other i'm just trying to make a little bit of money. CRISPR's been taking off day in, day out.
Bought that thing like high 30s, low 40s.
It's still working.
I think I just would like to see some of these names reset to kind of like lever into them more aggressively.
That's one of those names.
I'd like to see just kind of like some kind of reset for it.
And then I think that's what I said.
I said I sold most of the Apple.
Yeah.
So outside of that, just staying afloat ahead of the three-day weekend.
Had a nice trade on UNH yesterday.
Kept some runners.
That didn't work out.
So the runners had some loss today but closed above the entry but
what would have been nice for continuation there it didn't happen it is what it is and then uh
under the radar some of these oil names starting to look good again they broke out went back and
retested support uh held and they're looking you know aggressive, which is interesting given this constant battle between
the Fed and the government about rates and about inflation. I saw that Pulte,
he's like the head of housing or something in the Trump administration, sent a letter
to Congress saying they should look into
powell whatever the f that means um so that'll be interesting and but i thought that one was pretty
dumb news that people are covering a lot it's someone that trump appointed saying that we
should look into powell there you go i i i agree with you that that part is dumb, but I think it kind of speaks to a bigger problem, which is that there's
like the fundamental problem with the Fed thing is like you want them to be autonomous. You also
want like most government organizations to within some range be autonomous and kind of like be
supervised. But it seems like pandering, which is kind of problematic in my opinion but that that
won't be a problem until it is so we're not going to go into that but the point of me bringing that
up is uh some of these oil names just don't look good uh valero for example held its 20 day back
in like the mid 130s after breaking out and then looks like it's in a pretty aggressive inverse cup and handle, which, you know, if that thing starts going, especially in summer driving season, I think it could be like 160s real quick.
So paying attention to some of those names.
And then just, you know, Robin Hood broke 100.
So everybody's pretty happy about that.
I don't have a Robin Hood position, but I did trade it.
So it's cool to participate. I know Gary mentioned, I think CCL a few weeks ago.
And I told him I see a CCL and I raise RCL, but they're both on fire. I don't, you know, after,
I personally never want to go on a cruise in my life. It's just me.
But I get it.
People like cruises.
Some of these names are just like nonstop on fire, which kind of makes.
Put me in your boat, by the way.
I have no urge to ever get on a cruise. Especially after that poop cruise documentary.
Oh, my gosh.
I could not watch that.
I refused to watch that just because.
I watched half of it and it just got too gross.
I guess I figured that was the case.
Since I was brought up, I will bring up the reason why I said CCLA.
It's just been on fire since I found it in November.
It's been a good stock to kind of buy and hold.
But B, go and hang out in a 55 and older community.
I'm 54.
I don't live in a 55 and older community, I'm 54. I don't live in a 55 and older
community, but my parents do. And they're, they're buying freaking clothes for new cruises. They are
excited to go on these cruises. I'm with all of you guys. There's no way you can get, I went on
semester at sea, by the way, if you have kids, it's the greatest thing around it's college on a
boat. Imagine 500 freaking, you know, uh-year-olds getting drunk in international waters. That's pretty much what it is. It's fantastic. But a cruise? You couldn't get me on there. But it's clear. These guys are just pumping. So I'm glad you found Royal Caribbean. I don't know which high. So CCL has got a really heavy debt load. It's owned by Mickey Harrison, who owns the Heat.
Pretty heavy debt load.
Stock kind of got obliterated during COVID.
And he kind of flooded the company with debt there, with refinance and stuff like that.
And it hasn't really come anywhere near its levels that it was in pre-COVID.
RCL, better balance sheet.
I think they're cruises people prefer
um since they're like a little bit higher end and it's making an all-time high stocks trading at
like 325 back when you mentioned uh CCL I think RCL was trading around 250. they're both up
aggressively I'm sure if you look at you know the, the performance are pretty much on par, but I know RCL is making an all time high, you know, clear skies above, no pun intended, all that stuff.
But yeah, so the point about me bringing that up is, you know, given that that's the case, I think that there might be some beta chase that could come in some of these other travel names so i want to pay attention to that so take a look at like uh airbnb for example some of these uh hotel bookers like expedia
um and i just want to see if there's any any kind of follow-through because if we get some numbers
on the back of like fourth of july i think uh airbnb is just like airbnb is the one i'm going
to point to
because that's the one that I'm interested in.
It's taken a position in for options.
Straight in mid-130s, right above its 200-day.
It's been testing that 200-day for like a couple weeks now.
Hasn't broken down.
And basically, if we can get above this like 135 level,
it really doesn't have anything in the way between that point, like 142.
So it's like a nice little setup there. And then their implied volatility and their options
really suppressed. So that's the reason for me bringing up the Caribbean, Royal Caribbean
and the cruise liners. We'll see if it plays out or not, but I just thought I'd bring that up.
And that's pretty much it for me. I'll stop there. If you have any questions, happy to answer. Oh, one last
thing, actually. I thought it was funny that
we did talk about
Tesla. Said pretty much everybody's
waiting for them to just put out the number
and get it over with. And then they
run it. And that's basically what
happened. They didn't run it as much as they usually
do. But we'll see. Maybe it's one day of a multi
day. But, you know,
they gapped it up, sold it off
early, and then brought it back up to the highest. So I thought that was interesting.
Hey, I do have a question for you, Wolfie, since you brought up Powell and stuff.
I mean, Trump has been pretty clear. He's going to put somebody in that seat with a 1% goal of
interest rates. I mean, it's just a matter of time. He has telegraphed every single
thing he's done with the stock market where he's told you to buy stocks. And I'm no expert.
And I'd love to hear somebody's opinion on this one if they have it, who might know.
Is 1% a good rate? I mean, I can't imagine it's a good rate, but for the next two years, maybe it's a good thing.
Yeah, so I'm probably the dissenting guy about rates.
I think if rates were bad where they're at, we wouldn't be at all-time highs.
I think trying to artificially pump is only going to increase inflation.
And in a situation like that, you could see if you were to like cut them to one percent
i think you see a situation where like the quote-unquote real economy underneath kind of
like starts breaking but then asset prices just kind of skyrocket um you know just kind of stay
ahead of inflation but we'll see i just i i don't like the idea of that's kind of why i brought up
the poulti thing like i don't like the idea of people kissing the ring that much but do you really i agree with you but you really i mean
one percent he's gonna put somebody at one percent but that's that's what it has to get approved
you're talking april next year yeah that's that's what it's may 26 so So, uh, May 26. May 26.
Before,
but even then it has to get approved by Congress, right?
He can't just appoint somebody.
It has to be approved by Congress.
Mike,
that's my issue.
That's my issue is that we like a lot of these people have kind of just,
that's,
that's,
that's the point of bringing up the Pulte thing where he's kissing the
rain.
There's a lot of these people that are supposed to be the guardrails are just kind of
kowtowing.
Yep, Emperor wants this.
Emperor gets this.
That's fine until it's not.
Does it make you respect
Elon Musk more?
I think
I'm asking a tough question.
Yes, I know.
I will give Elon credit for the one thing I'll give Elon credit is So I think so. Okay. Yes. I'm asking a tough question here. Yes, I know you want to say no.
I will give Elon credit for, the one thing I'll give Elon credit is for speaking his mind.
I think Elon's in it for Elon.
Thank you. I was about to say the same thing. But in this instance, Elon being in it for Elon does rub against what the president wants.
And in that case, he's rubbing against what the president wants.
So I'll give him credit for that.
But I do think that it's just a matter of he wants –
I don't know what his angle is for why he wants certain things.
I genuinely don't believe that it's just because he's, you know,
looking out for the best interests of everybody.
It's just my opinion.
We can agree to disagree on that if you guys want.
But I think he's looking out for something from his own interests, one way, shape or form.
And it just happens to rub up against Trump. So for that, yeah, I'll give him credit.
But I'm just saying that all these checks and balances that are in place are supposed to kind of move idiosyncratically.
I know I love that word, but they're not sometimes. And that kind of gives me
pause because the bond market will sniff that out. Sorry, Mike, go ahead. No, no, no. I need to
run, but I want to say, I think you're, I don't talk politics on here very often because, you know,
we all have different opinions, right? And these old saying opinions are like assholes and everybody
has one. I agree though. The system of checks and balances has been going away, and that worries me very much. And that should not happen. And I'm hoping the closer
we get to the midterms that the things will start to turn, and maybe the midterms are a massive
wake-up call for both parties in general. But I appreciate your thoughts. I don't think you're
wrong. I think you're onto something here, and that's a problem that we need to address in this
country somehow. Yeah, I'm not trying to speak of it politically.
I'm just saying that the reason that our bond market- I know you're not. That's why I'm enjoying
the conversation. Yep. The reason that our bond market is the way that our bond market is,
the reason that people point to the United States is like the global empire that it is,
and the money printer and the reserve currency is because of these
checks and balances, is because there's no cronyism to levels in other places.
And if that kind of goes away, then it's like credit and insurance, right?
Once we have a good credit score, because we don't have any weird stuff going on.
The moment our credit score is perceived
internationally to be weaker than it has been,
now you've got to reprice the paper.
And now your interest rate goes up,
for lack of a better term.
So that's my concern on that front.
We'll see how it plays out,
but hopefully it plays out better.
Sorry.
Yeah, I mean, for that to play out globally, you would also need an
alternative allocation location for all that capital and you won't get it.
I'm not saying it from a capital preservation standpoint, a hundred percent%. I'm just saying in terms of what your yields should be, right?
If you tell the Fed, bring the yields down from where they're at, put them at 1%, like
that letter that he sent suggests, what is that?
I don't think that that's going to bring in the longer end of the curve.
I think the bond market's going to sniff that out
and it's just going to be stubborn.
That's just my opinion.
I mean, why did that work for the 20 years prior to COVID?
Because you were in a situation where you had
40 years of all rates going from the upper left
to the lower right.
Now you're in a situation...
No, no, no.
They weren't going from the upper left to the lower right. For 20 years in a situation. No, no, no. You didn't have,
they weren't going from the upper left to the lower right for 20 years.
We were in a relatively ZERP environment with very little rate volatility.
So it wasn't about 40 for 40 years.
You can pull up any of these. I'm sort of asking you a rhetorical question.
I'll just respond to why I think differently from you on that.
that. As long as the interest in government debt remains relatively baseline, which it has for a
As long as government,
very, very long time, in order to displace the role of U.S. debt and have real pressure on the
sale of U.S. treasuries, you would need an alternate outlet to defer all of that capital
allocation. And I don't believe that one exists. That's where I think the big catch 22 is in
the people that are worried about the bond market. Yeah, I agree. Our debt is not as attractive
today, not nearly as attractive today, if we're being objective as it was 10 years ago. That part, I'm 100% in agreement with you on.
But do I think that it's going to lead to a dangerous environment for US treasuries? No,
I think in order for that to happen, a new golden goose would have to emerge in terms of
government debt. And I don't see that golden goose like whose debt are you gonna buy
you're gonna buy china's no you're not gonna buy russia's no you're not gonna buy eu debt
i mean maybe incrementally most people are allocated to us that have some allocation
to eu debt so yeah maybe a little bit of money goes there but there's no michael saylor right
bitcoin yeah or maybe bitcoin yeah i mean yeah maybe there's some kind of just mag like massive
change in the way people allocate capital in the next 10 years which a lot of people do believe is
going to happen with crypto but even then okay let's say you take i don't know 10 of that
allocation which is a huge sum of money globally 10 of the allocation to to treasuries globally
and you put that into crypto that would like fucking 5x the size of the entire crypto market.
So even with that tailwind, let's say that happens, you know, and let's be liberal and
say 10% over the next 10 years, you still don't have an outlet.
Like there's just nowhere else to go to get government debt.
The unique thing about government debt is if you believe in the sustainable sovereignty
of the nation and the ability of the nation to continue to grow its economy, then it's a relatively zero risk bet.
It's not completely a zero risk bet. If you're buying Uganda's debt, that's not a zero risk bet.
But like out of the if you look at the durability and the political stability of all U.S. counterparts in the world, no one comes close to
us. In spite of all the volatility, the tariff stuff, whether or not you agree with U.S. foreign
policy between an administration to an administration, whether or not you think the
debt path is unsustainable, even with all these risks factored in, not a single nation on earth
has more attractive government debt than the U.S. government. Not a single one.
Yeah, that was kind of the point. on earth has more attractive government debt than the US government. Not a single one.
Yeah, that was kind of the point.
But I'm just saying that you can go from the treasury market from a demand standpoint.
Sure, but I'm just saying that it can go from five to six,
which would kind of hamper what they want to happen what could that's all i'm saying
uh 10 year 30 or whatever whatever one's trading at five right so you're trading at like four two
so the 30 years training at five basically four nine somewhere around there you're saying the 30
you can go to five from five to six in what scenario yeah in a scenario where we artifact
we just decide we're going to put rates at 1%
without the data. I mean, you know, that's not going to happen. I don't know. You're not going
to arbitrarily go from, I mean, no matter what Trump says, we're not going to arbitrarily and
immediately go from 4.5 to 4.75 to 1%. I mean, you know that, right? No, no, I don't know. That's
what I'm saying. I'm saying that you think there's a risk that we go from 4.75 to 1%
in one meeting?
No, not one meeting. I'm not saying one meeting.
But there is a real risk that you go from that
in like a year if he wants to
put someone to be a crony. No shot.
I would bet my life savings
that that's impossible in a year's time, Fran.
I will say.
Unless there's a massive
economic collapse. That's the caveat, obviously.
No, Stock Talk, I'm with you, right?
In a perfectly functional environment, that should not be the case.
All I'm saying is his letter to Powell where he's like, put him from here to here.
My concern is if he ultimately starts to put someone in Powell's seat that's just going to
kowtow to him I think that the the long end of the curve is going to be stubborn because it's
it's no everything we just talked about we agreed on where the U.S. is there's no better place it
just kind of fractures it a little bit right and that's that's all I'm saying. I'm not saying- Yeah, it does, it does.
But I'm saying even with a little bit of fracture,
there's just no alternative.
Sure, but in that case,
I do think that yields on the long end go up,
not down until things normalize.
And I think that would kind of get in the way of a lot of the things that the administration wants,
that we want, everybody wants for a better, blah, blah, blah.
That's all I'm saying.
I'm not, this is not-
Yeah, you're right.
From that perspective, I agree with you, that it could inhibit aggressive policy efforts and make things a little harder if the treasury market's pushing back. That
is completely true, and I agree with you on that. But I just resort, whenever I'm like, start getting
concerned about U.S. institutions, I just resort to the TINA argument all the time. The TINA argument
for people that don't know just means that there is no alternative. And I think the greatest argument for not only U.S. supremacy and supremacy of U.S. stocks in general, which is which obviously because of that, because there is no better place to put your money when you consider all of the risk factors, the geopolitical risk factors,
the economic risk factors, the default risk factors. When you consider them all, if you
were to make like an algorithmic score on those factors for every country on earth,
we would score in a different bracket from the rest of the world. And that is why America always wins.
And so, yeah, look, is our treasury market in the ideal situation right now? No. And even though me
and Wolfie are generally on the same page with a lot of points here, I'm just pushing back to
play devil's advocate here a little bit as well. But he is right that there are more risks to U.S.
treasury interest today. There are more doubts about U.S. Treasury interest today. There are more doubts about U.S. Treasury interest today than there were 10 years ago.
That is unequivocally true.
And if you were to look at incremental interest in U.S. Treasuries from foreign parties this year,
it is a little bit depressed compared to historical standards.
Now, is no one interested in buying our debt?
Of course not.
That's not what either of us are saying, I don't think. But yes, there are risks to the consumption of U.S. debt today that did not exist just 10 years ago.
And that is something that parties who are buying U.S. debt have to consider. And it does also make the bond markets a little bit less sensitive, if you will.
sensitive if you will i was going to say volatile but that's actually not true it makes them a
little bit less sensitive to perceived policy changes because there is less you know when you
have a i don't want to say it's a less liquid market but it's a slightly less liquid market
and that does matter and so yeah yeah i agree with a lot of the risks you outlined i i just think
net net yeah this is not this is not like a doom and gloom.
This is a-
Yeah, no, I know, I know.
I know you're-
I'm being very clear here for people
that don't figure that out.
This is not a doom and gloom,
like the sky is falling, get out, all that stuff.
It's just the reason that we,
the reason that all those institutions
and Tina and all that exists
is because of these autonomy,
the autonomous nature of these things.
And if that starts to crack,
then you start to price it differently.
And those things have reverberations that we just,
in many cases, we just don't fucking know yet, right?
Like if we want something to happen one way
and the result turns out a different way,
we don't know how that's gonna shape out.
And that's just the thing to keep in the back of the mind for like the next few months. And this was all hinged on
Mike's comment saying that he, you know, he hopes that these systems that are in place,
where they have to confirm the new guy, if Trump puts in a new guy, stays that way, etc. He hopes
these things. And if they don't, then they're problematic. That's where this all originated. I don't know if you caught that part. That's where it all originated from.
Yeah, no. And that part I agree with. I do think the Federal Reserve should remain independent.
But, you know, I saw a lot of people mentioning that when Trump said the whole thing about I'm
going to put somebody in the chair that wants to cut rates. I want rates at one percent. When Trump
said all that stuff, I saw a lot of people on Twitter saying like, you know, this is dangerous. It's compromised, it compromises the independence
of the Fed. I sort of roll my eyes at that because like the, the Fed chairs are appointed
anyway. That's not a new thing. And like the idea that a president wouldn't want a Fed chair that
supports his policy is also not a new thing.
Right. Presidents have always picked Fed chairs that they perceive will support their policy.
That doesn't always end up happening. There have been many historical examples where a Fed chair appointed by a president doesn't care what his policy objectives are and stands their ground.
I would hope more Fed chairs than not have the willingness to do
that. But I don't think that this is some unraveling of the Federal Reserve as an institution
because like, yeah, Trump is going to put somebody in there that wants to lower rates that I think
the market knows and has accepted. But, you know, I don't think that that means he's going to get in
there and like just be a child about it either. I think he will probably pick somebody
that has hopefully a decent understanding of the economy
that goes in there and says,
yeah, okay, we're going to cut rates,
but we're not going to cut them irresponsibly.
I hear they're going to get Besson in there.
Stock talk, are you excited about that?
I don't know if Besson would make a good fit.
He already said he's not interested.
He already said he's not interested.
He said he'll do whatever the president wants so the other the other the other aspect about
this conversation just real quickly is regardless regardless wolfie quickly uh to reinforce he says
he'll do whatever the president wants which kind of reinforces the point of one percent uh is not
like you never know uh but joking continue yeah. Yeah, no, but the main,
I think the second order of this,
like the second thing to consider
is one of the main things behind all of this
is that now regardless of what happens,
Trump has his fall gut, right?
Like if, thank you,
if he's got a situation where-
You're welcome.
If he's got a situation where... You're welcome.
If he's got a situation where, you know, the rates, the cut rates and the bond market doesn't like it,
and he's got, well, in his back pocket, he's got, well, things would have worked if Powell had just done his job.
He's got a fall guy. Regardless of all this, he has a fall guy.
That's the other point, the other side of the coin, if you will. Yeah, we got a fall guy regardless of regardless of all this he has a fall guy that's the other point of the other side of the coin if you will yeah we got all that i mean look there's going to be we're going to have a dove as the next fed chair every market's accepted that everyone should
have accepted that so there's going to be a dove as the next fed chair the real question is you know
how is the market going to feel about that so far the market feels pretty good about it i'd say
both equities and bonds. And, you know,
we've known that for what, the better part of two weeks now. And meanwhile, equity markets have hit
new highs. There seems to be a little bit of a brush off of the lapse in the hard data going on
today. You look at rate cut probabilities this morning, they were soaring. They sort of corrected
back down, but they were soaring this morning the fed watch tool um what are we at
today i don't even want to refer to my earlier tweet let me double check and see if it hasn't
changed intraday yes we're sitting at 93.4 percent now for september rate cut you're sitting at 23.3
percent for july rate cut so there is a chance as they say october you're sitting at, well, October's a little complicated because it depends
on what happened in September, but bottom line, by the end of the year in December, you're looking at
55.9% odds now versus just close, a little over 50 this morning for three cuts by the end of the
year, 325 basis points cuts, which would bring, if we get all the way down there, that would bring rates to 3.5 to 3.75 from 4.25 to 4.5 currently.
All right.
We're going to play the game.
How many rate cuts do we get in 2025?
I would like to hear it from everyone.
I'll go first.
I'm going to.
I'm going to go with what the FedWatch tool says.
I'm going to go with what the FedWatch tool says. I'm going to go with three.
Three?
I think the betting market say two, by the way.
Yeah, betting market still say two,
but there's now, as of
today, a greater than 50%
probability of three.
Alright, who wants to hit me
with guesses? I'm hitting three.
If we're playing prices right,
honestly. No, it's got to be exact. I think it's three. If we're playing Price is right. But honestly.
No, it's got to be exact.
I think it's three.
All right.
I heard that.
Urkel.
I'm going to stick with one still because of the tariffs and the July
nonsense and just Powell's current stance.
And I know change could be coming,
but I'm going to stick to my guns and stick with one right now.
Wait, one for next year or this year?
No, this year.
This year.
Yeah, I'm with Urkel.
I think you're going to get one.
They're going to fight each other.
Two.
There we go, Sam, joining me.
Is everyone
actually shy?
Yeah, I think one.
I think there are some rumblings on the floor
of this nysc today there might be some revisions upwards on this miss on the adp so we'll find out
more i forgot when the next uh nfp is but i really think this is going to be one in september and
that's it i think there should be multiple but i think it's really only gonna be one because
it's a lot more politics to the weight of the decision than you would like
unfortunately
alright
you know what normally it doesn't go
successfully we got a guess from everyone
I have that saved in my little notebook
and I'll look back at it
no I mean we got
three ones
we got two twos and
two threes a pretty good ones do we get through the panel yet are we uh ready for uh no no no
we actually have sam and chai still to go and we are about to get a market close here in any second
google looking nice here trying to close close to the the high of days apple there was points
so i was at the point on apple where i was i had a nice i was kind of doing some male astrology and doing some charts and i was i was adjusting my charts as it was invalidating to
keep making it look bullish and i knew at that point you know just let it go for a little bit
and they actually don't look pretty good there's some good names though robin hood looking decent
today up uh six percent although a little bit off that one hundred dollar mark we got a a stock top
cheer like a full visceral tier starting out the space.
It's like a top two position for me in my portfolio.
Right? That's awesome.
But that doesn't happen often.
Robinhood's waiting actually overtook Tesla's waiting.
Tesla? Nice.
I think Robinhood's about to...
It's not reflected in my Savvy Trader,
but this is a really big position now.
It's freaking insane.
We did just close.
SM, you want to take us?
Listen, yesterday was brutal with the interruptions,
but today you're setting yourself up here right at the close for maybe a headline.
We'll see how it goes.
But, yeah, I'd be curious.
I don't know if I want to go.
I don't know if I want to go I don't know if I want to go
that's why I didn't come right to you honestly
because I knew it could happen again
but feel free if you do want to
go through it
I was just going to say the freaking volume
on these miners it's not just CIFR
which I know a lot of you guys are in
but IRAN, Webull
just basically all of these
crypto somehow crypto proxies across the board
we had a yield max crew on earlier uh talking about the dividends for msdy and a bunch of
other stuff like that got a massive run today of course with crypto running up
i don't know man it's just crazy balls of the-wall bullish shaking my feet right now.
So we'll see.
Just enjoying it.
I don't know.
What else is there to do, right?
You know, it does make you think on the play of these Bitcoin miners being able to be used,
the compute being able to use for AI as something that, you know, why didn't we think of that sooner?
It feels like, you know, maybe it was out there.
I'm surprised I didn't think of that one first.
Listen, I think when you look back
at what's happened with NVIDIA a couple of years ago,
with them and crypto,
and then starting to have to turn it off
because of their gaming business.
So for NVIDIA, gaming was a better ROI than crypto.
And now we're here at AI, which is a significantly thing that is shutting down their gaming
business.
It should have been a pretty obvious one.
But here we are saying it after.
That also might mean I might have legs.
How much have all these names moved?
I haven't really looked too deep into it.
I'm sure I've heard Stock Talk talk about it a little bit there it is probably a good bit all these uh bitcoin miners miners yeah that's
what i covered yesterday and they're up huge again today i tune you talk a lot though i tune it out
most times yeah that's your your fault missing out on alpha i'm kidding i'm kidding i I got G and I, and I bought some indie calls.
What's up,
Sam?
Yeah.
Sorry.
he needs to make a little comeback.
You know,
what was actually really interesting is seeing Wolfspeed just crazy
volatile lately.
I thought we were going to get the ticker.
I thought you guys are going to get the ticker.
You guys should just start applying.
Go IPO. Now's probably a good time to do it.
Question is, are you going to buy
Figma or are you going to buy Wolf?
That's a big question.
I will say 2025 was the
first time I jokingly
threw around, should we do this back?
Once I saw Chamath doing it again,
I was like, alright guys, now
everyone's just fucking around. I guess mine says, well, maybe
we could take a good company.
Stock Talk,
you putting your name behind Starfire?
Is we taking them public?
We'll see, we'll see.
We will
see. It's been a very hot environment for space
stocks, that's for sure
yeah it has and spacks and ipos and spacks and ipos and everything everything under the sun really
it's been a hell of a hell of the last couple weeks
all right sam why don't you uh go into it i listen it's the wednesday before yeah no i was
gonna say you didn't want me to start the rant, but then you're coming back to me.
You're on the verge of me just going off.
No, I know.
And I'll stop.
Let's go to Sam and Shai first, get their comments,
and then I'll jump in.
Well, something came out that was actually pretty interesting today.
Microsoft is going to, well, there's a lot of delay shipment
in terms of their proprietary chips,
which we saw Marvell take quite a dump earlier today.
It was up like 3.5%, and then now it closed down about 2.6%
because Marvell designs the Azure proprietary chips.
I mean, it might be like a little bit of a short-term hit
in terms of volatility for Marvell.
It's been quite a run, but at the same time,
it's been one of the laggards in terms of one of the fabulous chip designers.
They have a lot more in their business segments,
but honestly the data center portion is one of their fastest growing segments.
I think it was like 72% last quarter.
At the same time, you know, they are still designing those chips
and they're still designing, they still haven't designed the chip
for Meta as well, Tranium 2, no word on Tranium 3 and 4 yet,
which are Amazon's ASIC processors.
And they're still in the networking segment as well.
So, you know, going to continue to see that one.
I mean, you know, delay maybe isn't so good.
Maybe the market's front running some negative news that might come out from the company as far as the press release goes.
But just normal price action.
I mean, if you look at even all of the semiconductor companies across the board, it really was just a mixed bag.
I mean, Intel was down about 4%.
I already mentioned Marvell.
Micron is basically flat.
Navitas is basically flat.
A net up 2% and so on after a little bit of a pullback. They all have just been basically flat.
I think most of the movement and volume in the market is really these small and mid-cap companies across the board. I don't think it's necessarily going to be a big up week or a big down week.
But if you think about the amount of capital that usually goes in these
mega cap stocks, as well as the larger mid cap stocks,
it doesn't take that much more than a couple of billion dollars to move
maybe something of like the $4 billion range,
like IRN or $3 billion or anything, or even Webull,
which is like $5 billion.
It doesn't take a lot to move that stuff.
So, you know,
definitely some trading momentum going on with a lot of these tickers across the board. What was actually really interesting today,
and you guys were commenting on it earlier, was that you had the weak job reports come out,
and then you see TLT basically just get dumped, which is basically tracking the bonds for the
20-year and 30-year. And it kind of brings the question, like, wait, hold on a second. Why,
if the Fed is anticipated to cut more, and that's getting priced more into the Fed funds futures and the SOFR rates, why are the long-term yields going up necessarily?
And, you know, I mean, your guess is as good as mine. You know, we can all really debate it, but the bond market is a very large market and definitely something's up.
Definitely something's up.
Like there's something to be said as far as that divergence goes with the short-term yields and long-term yields for that steepening to continue occurring, even though we're coming toward a chance to increase the pace of the rate cut cycle.
I think also a lot of it has to do with it.
I kind of got lost in the noise a little bit earlier, but maybe it's not really such a big deal because they made it seem like the U S federal housing department is putting a request in to investigate Jerome Powell,
but it turns out it's just the director and the head of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
You know, I don't know how much weight there is in that, or maybe there's an ulterior motive
there who knows. Um, but at the same time, you know, we, we've all pretty already know,
like Powell is kind of like a straight shooter. Like He's not like an extreme – he does tend to be more of a dove, but he's kind of in the middle, right?
And obviously, if you have any negative news that could potentially put him out of office earlier than they expect around 2026, that could infer more rate cuts coming through the line.
And maybe the market is front-running the rate cutting by assuming that inflation is going to stay a little bit sticky.
market is front running the rate cutting by assuming that inflation is going to stay a little
bit sticky. And the longer the long end of the curve tends to track inflation as far as a
structural point of view. So I don't think that I don't think TLT is going to be going at 95 or 100
anytime soon, in my opinion. But I definitely do think the short term rates are probably going to
come down to maybe like 3% around where the Fed's terminal rate is. And I think that's going to continue to
happen. And the dollar is just getting slammed right down to, I think it's at 96 right now.
And that actually is beneficial for a lot of emerging markets because pitting the dollar
against those paired currencies, it just makes their currencies a lot more powerful. And that
has a substantial upward movement onto a lot of emerging markets, especially Southeast Asia.
It was interesting to see new bank and grab up quite a good amount and then kind of give away most of those gains in the last couple of days.
But at the same time, you know, increasing the local currency for a lot of these emerging markets is definitely bullish for a lot of the technology and investments on those overseas regions. So I can't really say the market's going to drop like five or 10%
because I think a lot of the analysts on Wall Street, they expected that to happen
like five or 10% ago. So if they reiterate that call again, well, then we're just going to end
it right back where a couple of weeks ago. So it's very hard to kind of short the entire market here. But I mean, I think there's
tactical shorts you can do a little bit here by shorting a little bit of weakness. But
Apple is definitely coming back here. Apple closed up about 2.8, 1.8% after that Jeffries
upgrade we were talking about earlier. I mean, if Apple comes out this quarter and says,
hey, we actually beat the expectation on the smartphone sales that maybe China's coming back in terms of sales, like they're going to have to rerun those models to account for possibly a reacceleration of China's smartphone sales, especially when you see the negative news as far as the Chinese tech companies probably going to start getting hit at some point from these tariffs.
So we'll continue to see from that one.
But, I mean, things are just looking pretty decent right now,
but not trying to press the gas too much on anything.
I appreciate those good thoughts there, Sam.
Oh, no, yeah, it's – this market has been crazy.
But I'll continue on.
I want to get shy into it before I have some more thoughts.
I appreciate you,
Sam.
Shy,
what's, what's going on in your world?
Yeah.
I mean,
I think it's crazy because this rally is kind of based on a multiple
expansion.
That's a little dangerous.
So I think that's,
I don't know.
Clearly the market is front running the inevitability
of effect cut.
Like it's that, I think that's, what's really happening.
It's multiple effects is that, and also AI, uh, big tech still drawing even more money
at AI.
And that's clearly going to be a risk on barometer, but I do believe it's that's behind, but money's
already front running the inevitability of that cuts
and there's gonna be a ton of liquidity that's gonna be hitting the market so
i think that i think i called out yesterday that or two days ago that there is some
danger or risk on waiting on the silence until the fed actually cut because typically those events
are selling news and the real move happens before the actual event so i this morning
tesla news is actually a great example of that as well uh so i do believe that if it's one two or
three rate cuts the beginning of that rate cut cycle is going to be a pretty major pivots and
i think it's going to snowball on a couple of them, mainly because we're also going to be entering a production boom from AI.
And that's going to be deflationary organically.
So I think the inflationary worries is somewhat overstated, in my opinion, because we got that two-handle already.
Interest rates are essentially 2x what the inflation handle is.
And there is going to be a deflationary environment from the production boom from AI.
So I think it's okay for the Fed to be a little more aggressive on the rate cuts.
And that's that.
Regarding what else today, I mean, Tesla.
I got a lot of questions on why Tesla's catching a bit today when they miss estimates.
And I think it's the selvin, not selvin.
A lot of fear was priced into today's delivery uh print where a you got a commentary that tesla's like robin i forgot his name i think it's omid
or omid uh he left the organization he was kind of in charge of a lot of the card uh delivery
portion he had a lot of weight behind the car delivery numbers.
So Elon essentially is now taking over the Europe sales and also, I think, filling that gap of him leaving.
So there's a lot of fun.
You know, not to be that guy.
Maybe Elon does know car sales.
Something tells me Elon Musk Europe just doesn't feel like a great sales opportunity.
You know, I feel like someone else could be leading that, but I digress.
I think they just submitted something for FSD supervised, so maybe there's some correlation there.
I think that was just the best way.
So that might be some correlation.
Honestly, that was my tin hat thesis on this theater.
This theater, I call it theater between Trump and Elon.
I call it theater between Trump and Elon.
I really do think it's acting.
I really do think it's acting.
I know there's some like, you should not have gone that far, like pedo comments.
But I think that this, my thesis on the foundation of this bickering is pure theater.
And it could be helping, I don't know, maybe Elon wants to accelerate FSD in Europe or
help his brand more in Europe.
What's the best way of doing that? Hate you, Trump. Hate you, Trump. You're dumb brand more in Europe. What's the best way of doing that?
Hate you, Trump.
Hate you, Trump.
You're dumb.
You're dumb.
That's the easiest way.
So maybe there's an angle there and helping him save face outside of the USA.
Maybe that's it.
But I just think that he's not dumb enough to say the stuff that he actually said and
truly mean it.
It's truly a pawn for something greater.
Just my two cents on that.
I digressed a little.
Today, Tesla, yeah.
So, I mean, I called it,
Tesla's like delivering the past
but still building the future.
Like that's kind of the ethos I called from today's print
where estimates were at 389.
I think they came at 384, a miss.
But I think some of the lower estimates out there
were at 350.
So like there were some fears that maybe it out there were at 350. There were some
fears that maybe it would be
lower than 350. It wasn't.
It wasn't a rounding error
type of miss, but it was still
that much of a
heartburn of a miss, especially when
the market
slowly but surely realizing that these
delivery numbers reflect the company
Tesla was, not the company it's becoming,
aka building the AI network for mobility and robotics.
So I think that these delivery numbers are slowly but surely having less of an impact
on the Tesla stock price.
But yeah, you never know.
This might be the last cycle that really means anything.
I think this can be multiple cycles, but who knows how many quarterly delivery numbers you
actually have to track for Tesla going forward because they're at that inflection point of
RoboTaxi, that launch was successful, still have a ton of amounts in decline to really
fill that gap between them and Waymo. But I think the market is okay enough with
the narrative that they are actually going to be a physical AI disruptor and they're pricing them
accordingly. And the fundamentals are pretty disgusting to look at, but they're willing to
look past that. So that's Tesla. What else? I mean, a lot of the risk-on names caught major bids today.
And I think that's correlated with a huge job deliveries, job number miss that's going to cause a brute force impact on how to cut rates.
And you're seeing names like the CRISPR space and genomic space.
You saw Prime PRME catch a major bit, up 15%.
I think Beam Therapeutics was up 14 percent and tell you up 10 i think a lot of these genomic names are getting catchy and big because they've
kind of the past couple years been the doghouse higher for longer interest rates and environments
and it's all based on some it is somewhat sci-fi where it's a kind of such a crazy disruption for genomics crisper genomics is specifically
going to do for society that it feels too fantasy land but i i'm telling i think that human data is
validating the science and there wasn't really a true benchmark how you could price this theme
until verve their piece got acquired for 1.3 billion and And Verve was really the rut of the group.
Like it was, it didn't have the vast amount of human data
like in Italia, it doesn't have the platformization
like being therapeutic or prime.
Like it really was just like the lowest quality
among that group.
And they got bought out for $1.3 billion.
So I do think that's gonna cause a whole bucket to get re-rated just from that one
factor loan.
Combine that with the risk on environment from rate cut cycle beginning, that theme
is catching a bit and I think has a ways to go.
Like that is one of the spaces to like really, I'm allocating my soldiers, my small capital
foil towards.
Other than that, I mean, Quantum caught a bit today.
I think AI is continuing some strength.
Yeah, I'll pass it back to you,
but that's kind of what I monitored today.
Samuel, I'm going to call on you.
Yeah, no, I have a question.
So we definitely have seen TSM and especially Oracle
in light of the news with that from Oracle.
I mean, we already knew that there was like a $30 billion deal
coming through the door.
We just didn't know who the partner was.
And then I think it was revealed today
that those Stargate advanced talks came in as a agreement with OpenAI.
Oracle has just been a beast lately.
Do we think that this is going to continue being across the board
as far as data center goes?
Because I know you and I both long Estera Labs.
Price doesn't really tell much,
but it's not really participating in the upward movement for the SOX ETF.
So, and the same with Marvell, I know you're not long with Marvell,
but like, what are your thoughts around that, around the ASIC chip design? Do you think that maybe, or not even just ASIC, but also network,
network, network cards as well, network broadband,
like what do you think the narrative is around there?
Currently, I think
Marvell deserve to get hit a bit today if this Microsoft news is true if it's true
You just we all got head faked with the TPU news
Open AI who knows if today's news is even true, but I think like the for the stare labs the Marvell's
stair labs the Marvell's especially the broadcom like this way to tackle
especially the broadcom like this
inference like the reason Andy's catching such a major bid is due to
inference and we got a clear sign this most recent earnings cycle on how
explosive insurance is becoming with Nvidia beating their networking revenue
by literally 40 to 50% estimates I think that Sarah Labs is a moonshot way of solving the AI bottleneck for
scalable inference.
That's going to happen if the momentum continues to snowball,
which I think you are on the same page with me,
Sam,
that it's going to like the way I like to reference is I call AI
intelligence all the time.
Inference is the tax on intelligence.
So call, I call Broadcom uncle Sam a lot because theyference is a tax on intelligence. So I call Broadcom Uncle Sam a
lot because they're collecting the tax on AI, especially the AI workloads that's going to happen
that's going to explode due to training data going lower and lower. It's going to cause an
explosive inference boom, and they're going to benefit from the networking, aka the tax on using
AI intelligence. So that is something that's going to be a lot more sticky.
It's going to be a lot more constant.
We're training data.
I know we're in this like massive boom on AI spend,
but it typically is a transactional component of AI.
It's not supposed to be a constant recurring thing,
but it is right now because Blackwell is so much better than Hopperper and reuben is going to be so much better than blackwell i always forget the
name after reuben i do not remember what the next name it's like but that one's also gonna be even
better than reuben like the innovation that nvidia is providing is substantial it's like 5x type of
like 5x type of fame no it is f-e-y-n-m-a-n is that was a more of a female name
it said that in a female way but i oh yes hide your masculinity evan god i don't know how to say
it yeah but f-e-y-n-m-a-n yeah so that's the next year I mean every derivative of Nvidia's hardware is
just like wow wow wow that it's causing a constant buying spree on training
hardware so eventually that's going to hit his head on the wall or they were
like it doesn't it's not gonna be as like a blank check approach and
inference is where it's gonna be a constant like money print You gotta spend money on inference. Uh, so that's the constant component of AI spend and I think that
Broadcom is going to be the biggest winner by a mile on that. I think Marvell is
Probably the cheapest among the group. They got penalized significantly from
significantly from uh the black box of if they're going to actually innovate the next gen on cranium
The black box of if they're gonna actually
or not estera labs is just really it's they're kind of competing with nvidia like nvidia has a
competing product but they're also like their nv fusion link they're pairing up with uh estera
labs so like it's showing like enemies are working
together in a way but i do believe that as ai as inference workloads outgrow traditional gpu
architectures what i just called out it's going to become some clear choke point choke points
and i think in stair lab is the salt is the solution for that ai bottleneck if it continues
the way i think it's going to, especially with the multi-module AI
that's happening right now in real time.
So I think I completely forgot
your original question, Samuel,
but I think I hit on that maybe.
Let me know if I missed it,
but I just really digressed a little again.
No, I mean, you really pretty much hit it.
The other question was, you know, what are your thoughts around Oracle?
Oh, Oracle, yeah. I knew I missed something. Yeah, Oracle's renaissance is very real, I think.
There's got to be, I don't know, it's guess these grandpa's favorite tech stocks are experiencing a renaissance where IBM,
Cisco, Oracle, I think they're all hitting all-time highs when just five or six years
ago, all of them were struggling from that cloud era that was a bit maturing at the time.
They're all catching second wind.
And I think Oracle is frustrating for me specifically
it's one of the future ai15 names number 11 but for me it's frustrating because i thought
mongo db would catch a similar bid on a reacceleration on the fundamentals because
of the database component for ai driven apps oracle is it's like what broadcom is to Sarah Labs is what Oracle is to MongoDB.
So this is a great case study on maybe just buy the best,
stop trying to get the moonshot of the same theme.
That might be the look back on my strategy.
But I think Oracle is here to stay.
I really believe that OCI is hitting on all cylinders.
And there's going to be multi-trillion
dollars of spend and ai for the next couple years oracle will be one of the pillars of that's like
reciprocation of that spend so it's when you think about ai a multi-trillion dollars of ai spend you
have to think about nvidia clearly you have to think about tsm arm oracle has to be
one of those names as well same with open ai so i think those are like the tier one recipients of
this like multi-trillion dollar spend and it's probably going to have a lot of runway but they
are trading at i don't know i want to say 30 times earnings i think they have high single digits
growth on top lines like it is pricey but it's also one of the
stickiest um players in that arena that i think still have the world's largest ai infrastructure
deployments and i think a lot of databases are gonna it's gonna be essential to have that
compliant mission critical data system like compliant is the major major key word in that statement where
ai still in the experimental phase once it really transitions to the deployment phase
that compliant layer that oracle is unmatched with offering is going to be essential so
i think oracle has a way like it's going to be a major beneficiary for quite a while. Yeah, I mean, if we think about private data center,
because a lot of what usually the market hears about
is the public hyperscalers, AWS, Azure, and GCP as well.
Oracle is basically the leader,
well, not necessarily the leader,
but they're one of the fastest growing
private data center groups.
Larry Ellison's been talking about that
on the comments calls a lot,
just the significance of building these private data centers at scale, which for people who don't
know, private data centers is basically you have your own segmented infrastructure for just your
company or just those clients alone, where you're not necessarily sharing the same compute on the
same computer per se. And that's very important for what you're saying,
as far as compliance goes, where like, let's say for bank security companies, you cannot have,
you cannot have workloads running on the same machine because you never know if hackers
are going to come in and somehow be able to jump onto different systems and stuff
through that actual infrastructure in the background that you might be sharing with
different companies. I mean, that's happened before and that comes along with uh also keeping
keeping certain data and certain models and workloads outside of your systems as well
uh not not so much hacker related but also just as far as compliance purposes and i mean larry's
been talking about that for a while where it's just like they can scale out these private data
centers at lightning speeds and they're getting a lot better at it and doing it a lot quicker and that's actually what makes me wholly bullish on other companies like
nebius uh where they're mostly building the data centers and they're in owning the whole stack as
well it's but it is pretty interesting seeing how you know even in the short term how this is kind
of playing out where you're seeing oracle up like five percent and then you're seeing a lot of the
mega caps basically flatten the day, flatter down.
It's interesting to see how this all
plays out, but we're definitely going to know
what the deal is with all this once earnings season
comes up, and that's just in a couple of weeks,
which is pretty crazy to think about.
We're getting a lot of those
forums
files of like, here, we're going to be reporting
our earnings on this date,
which tends to happen two to four weeks ahead. I'm sure Shai knows
the good exact number, but I would
say closer to a month, but some of them are a little less.
It's the last week of July
is really the heavy
tech earnings.
We got banks in like two weeks or something.
Netflix was maybe a week earlier than it would
normally be. It's not next week,
it's the week after.
It's when we really start to talk about it.
But no one likes bank earnings
except for bank nerds.
I don't think we have too many bank nerds.
I also do want to call out, you made a great
point. I appreciate all of you guys.
Now you can go, sorry.
All good. A lot of earning estimates have revised
upwards in the last couple weeks.
I think you have to keep that in mind entering this upcoming earnings cycle because, I mean, just
three months ago, it was either timid, I don't think that many took down their guide because
we were going through that tariff war. So a lot of paralysis was happening in business
spending, which made a lot of enterprises feel uncomfortable providing guidances. Either
way, a lot of their
estimates were on the conservative side three months ago, and clearly things have improved
drastically since beginning of April. So I do think that having the mentality like, oh man,
last quarter is really bad. This quarter, everyone's going to be because all the estimates were
undercut just three months ago. That's not the case.
A lot of the wall street estimates have actually been revised upwards on a lot of these names.
So be cautious of that.
Like you gotta look to the left a lot entering earnings season.
And this is one of those trickier cycles where a lot of names have caught major bids entering
their prints.
And there's some danger and risk on maybe underperforming post earnings.
I'm just looking forward to the fact that we're actually getting some of these numbers coming up soon.
That is what I am looking forward to.
Okay, cool.
Well, I'll jump in here.
You know what I was thinking about yeah it's kind
of a you problem that like you feel like you can't talk unless it's like a 20 minute rant i'll let
you go now though no i do i do jump in for comments but i want to let people get their
comments out you know but i'm just messing around i'm messing around we make any uh moves today
trade a lot of stocks so gotta have, gotta cover everything. Today did not feel
like a day you would have taken too many plays.
I did see a couple more analyst reports than I maybe
have been the days. I have not
been looking at many new
catalysts lately because I'm very happy with
the stocks I own and I'm
obviously dramatically outperforming
the market, so I don't feel I need to change anything
right now.
A little bit of a
pullback for the portfolio yesterday because we're in a lot of momentum names that obviously
reverted today. It was a great dip buying opportunity yesterday. And portfolio back to
all-time highs today. My focus, I know everyone only gets interested when I talk about these
themes and sectors after they run and people get impatient while they're consolidating.
But pretty much the last four or five sessions, all I've been talking about is this Coors thematic.
For those that don't know or don't remember, last week there was a Wall Street Journal article on CoreWeave potentially buying out Coors.
That stock gapped up instantly to 16 hovering around now 17 plus
dollars um and it was sometimes there are these pivotal catalysts where they force a repricing
of the whole industry and this in my view was one of them we were pretty much all over it in the
discord the ones i currently own right now i went over these yesterday again but for those that were not paying attention they all went up a lot today but i'm currently in cypher iron and riot
and uh that's sort of my high performance compute slash bitcoin mining basket
and i'm riding it i haven't sold a share in any of them. I have Riot $10 calls that are up pretty significantly now after this two-day move. Riot was up 8% today. Cypher was up 15, well, actually 16% today. I posted the Cypher chart yesterday, had about 50,000 views.
and stuff don't nearly get as much engagement as like my headline posts or my news posts which is
sad because there's stock stuff but for those that have notifications on for me you should have seen
that post that i put out about the re-rating of these stocks last week when they were all about
20 or 30 percent lower than they are today um and the volume on these has just been pretty insane so cypher which is the most crazy one
in terms of volume out of all these today put up its fifth day of highest ever volume in a row
okay so we got in on friday after the first big. We got in on Friday. My cost basis is 428 on Cypher.
Stock's trading 570 today.
So we're up 32% and we bought it literally just last Friday.
So it's literally been three days of this week.
So in three days, we're up 32% on the equity and I haven't sold any.
Now, why have I't sold any. Now,
why have I not sold any? I would normally sell on a move like that. I've not sold any because this volume is ridiculous. So after posting its highest ever volume day, five
sessions ago at 70, today it posted 94 million shares of volume. Okay. On a five plus dollar
stock, that's a lot of money. Okay. That's almost $500 million worth of stock
traded today. If you combine the last five sessions in total, you're talking about over
360 million shares of stock in five days on a stock that has a 260 million share float.
That's not normal.
I mean, all I do, I know all I do, but I trade a lot of smid caps.
You know, for people that are in our community, I have, you know, anywhere from 10 to 15 smid
cap positions at a time.
You do not see that.
You might get a highest or a volume day and then you get a bunch of low volume days after that.
Stock fizzles out, sort of consolidates.
That's normal action.
What is not normal action is stock spikes on highest ever volume, then spikes again on highest ever volume, then spikes again on highest ever volume and does that five times in a row.
times in a row. On a 1.8, like if this was a 20 million market cap, some micro cap, I'd be like,
whatever. I'd write it off because I'd be like, oh, some big buyer with 100 million bucks just
wants to buy up the float. That happens a lot. In OTC markets, this happens a lot. Or even in
micro cap markets where you get some big buyer who steps in and just controls the float for an
entire week and buys up everything they can get their hands on.
That happens.
It does not happen with one plus billion dollar companies very often at all.
Like it is extremely rare.
So that's why I haven't sold any.
I don't know what's coming for Cypher, but something is coming.
There's just no way.
Like I, I refuse to believe that that's not preceding some kind of news.
You know, five straight days of highest ever volume, not like, oh, it's high volume,
highest ever for five days in a row. And it's not even close. Like if you look at the second ever highest volume prior to last week, it's like one third of what it did last week. So I don't know
what the hell's going on here, but I'm not selling it. And I have a 32% cushion on the equity now. So why would I? I mean, that gives me a ton of flexibility.
And to be honest, I make the most money when I let things work and don't be super fickle about
profit taking. That's where I make the biggest moves in my portfolio. So I'm going to just let
that work. And Riot, same thing. I had a really nice move on Riot today. Two days ago in our Discord, I put that I was picking up a Riot $11
calls on the break that it had two sessions ago. It was up another 8% today. Those $11 calls are up
a ton. The ones that I have for September are up 72% today on an 8% move in the stock.
are up 72% today on an 8% move in the stock.
So really good use of leverage today
to bring the portfolio back to all-time highs,
not to mention my core positions were dancing today, right?
My two biggest positions, Robinhood and Centris Energy,
which are now my largest positions by weighting,
were both up huge today.
Robinhood up 6%, Centris Energy up 4.5%,
breaking back over the 9 EMA.
That stupid JP Morgan report on Centris Energy
that sent this thing down
was an enormous buying opportunity
for anyone that read that.
Such a garbage note.
They're basically saying it's a super rare asset,
but we think they might need more government funding.
It was such a misplaced.
I imagine they wanted to bring it down
for some shares for their clients,
but that thing ripped today too. So everything was just working for me today. Tesla rebounded
5%. Everything was working. There's a few stocks that were down. Jenny was down a little bit,
but that's not a short-term play for me anyway. I'm building into that position
as a longer-term position. So I'm not worried about that one being red by a couple percent
today. Everything else was green for me. And you you know, you look at Sphere. That's another one in my
short interest basket. That's warming up. CRISPR, which is a name in my short interest basket,
that started taking off today up six and a half percent. I'm loaded on the $50 calls for October
and CRISPR. You had a really nice move in Joby on the rebound after yesterday's pullback. I outperformed Archer today.
I swapped my Archer for Joby last week,
and that's been a great decision based on what it's done this week.
King Tut, one of my buddies, convinced me to do that, and I'm glad he did.
Magnite keeps going up every day.
I'm in the 17 calls for October still on that.
Those are deep in the money now.
Stock's $25.
I bought those 17 calls at like 70 cents.
They're up 400%.
Everything is just working today.
Like today was just a beautiful day.
Indy's consolidating perfectly.
That's when I initiated recently.
Obviously a riskier play, a very high short interest play.
But you look how beautifully Indy is consolidating above the 200-day moving average.
Caught the 90 in May perfectly these last two sessions, keeps shaking out buyers, which I love to see on these high short interest plays.
And that thing's curling back up now, too.
So I was, like, flipping through my portfolio today.
I'm like, is there anything I want to sell?
Like, is there anything that looks dangerous to me, worrisome to me?
And I couldn't find anything.
I remember yesterday we were talking about – remember yesterday was a big selling day for these momentum names. And we were talking about like,
oh, are you doing anything? Are you panicking? There was a little bit of panic on this panel.
I'm not going to call out any individual people, but there was a little bit of panic on this panel
yesterday with those momentum names unwinding. And what you have to know is there's all sorts
of fuckery like that that happens around quarterly rebalancing.
research on our positions and know what we own is for these reasons, so that you don't get shaken
out of something that you should own, that you want to own, that you've done your work on,
and also so that you don't get overly excited about certain movements and stocks that you might
like. So it goes both ways. It's about tempering your emotion on both directions. But you should
expect some fuckery around quarterly rebalancing. That's normal.
And you should, you know, operate with that assumption that that's going to continue to happen.
But my focus right now is really on these these HPC and Bitcoin mining stocks.
And across those three positions, I have quite a bit of weighting in my portfolio across those names.
So I have a big buffer now.
You know, I know whenever I bring these up, everyone wants to chase, right?
Like when I brought up Indy and it was up 25% on the day,
everyone wants to buy it there and then.
Or when I brought up Genius and it was up 8% on the day,
everyone wants to buy it there and then.
Be patient.
You don't have to buy gap ups.
Just because I'm talking about a stock and it's up 20%,
you have to buy it there and then.
I'm just discussing these ideas with you guys
because we come on these shows at 2, 3.m. Obviously I talk about this stuff with our
members in the mornings I do a morning call every morning you know I do discuss the catalyst so if
you want to get into these stocks when I get into them join our community if you don't care about
that then you know the show will always be here I'll always be on the show and the show will always
be free so that's fine too if you prefer to do it that way, but you know, you are going to hear about ideas after they've
moved a little bit, cause that's just part of the game. Um, but yeah, I mean, things are working
really well in this environment and, you know, I have a very big portion of my portfolio, like
30 plus percent allocated to my short interest basket, which I shared with our members last
week. I have about nine names on there. They've all started to pop this week. They've all started
to make moves. Bloom Energy, CRISPR, Indy's shaping up for a move. You have the Bitcoin
mining names, Riot, Iron, Cypher have all taken off. CRISPR made a monster move today.
So they're all starting to work how I expected.
Sphere started to curl up today off the base. All of these names are 20 to 30 percent short.
And that's why I'm positioned in them, because I think this isn't the end of rate cut probabilities
going up. And I think probably by the end of the summer, you will have much higher rate cut
probabilities for the end of the year, whether or not those culminate or not is a separate conversation. But I do think that
will lead to widespread short covering in small and mid cap stocks. And if you go back and look
at cycles historically, this isn't just my opinion. I've done the work to justify this opinion. And I
put my money where my mouth is because I own nine high short interest stocks, some of them not great companies. Some of them are great companies and great brands,
but they're across different industries. And when I own a basket like that, I try to justify it
with cyclical data, not necessarily historical data, but the analysis of previous cycles.
And what you'll find is, is that generally,
when rate cuts are impending, we're getting closer, probabilities are rising,
you generally see short interest trend in the opposite direction. Okay. So to put that simply,
generally, when you're in this stage of a cycle, and you're nearing the beginning of rate cuts,
when you're in this stage of a cycle and you're nearing the beginning of rate cuts,
there tends to be less pessimism in market participation. And as a consequence of that,
you tend to see short covering. Now, that doesn't always trend infinitely. Sometimes what happens is
that you get impending rate cuts. So in other words, rate cut probabilities go up,
You get impending rate cuts. So in other words, rate cut probabilities go up.
Small caps and mid caps begin to perform well. Short interest starts going down as a result of
covering. And then on the precipice of a recession, that trend reverts.
Right. Because the recession is bad for smaller companies. So there's this window of excitement opportunity that you have at this stage
in the cycle. Sometimes you have about four months, sometimes you have about eight months,
sometimes you even have 12 months of a window where pessimism about hard economic data begins
to wane, short interest covering begins to happen rapidly, and you get very, very explosive moves
across baskets of small and mid-cap stocks. This has happened in almost every modern cycle.
So that's what I'm positioned for. Now, that's not all I'm positioned for. I still have my
aerospace and defense basket, which I've talked a lot about. Those names were down a little bit
today, but Huntington and Gallus actually held up really well.
And I tweeted about this name a few weeks ago, but the new Senate bill that got passed by the Senate preserves the shipbuilding money.
And so that's great for Huntington and Gallus.
It's great for General Dynamics as well, but that's a much bigger company. It's going to move much slower.
And you're seeing HII now this week, a quieter stock. This isn't good. It doesn't go up as much as some of the other names I talk about, but you're seeing
Huntington now just curl right out of this beautiful consolidation that it's had. And if
you can get a weekly close this week above this 240 spot, which looks likely we traded 250 today. This thing's back to being,
you know, headed back to all time highs, in my view, likely be a $300 stock pretty soon. So
and speaking of volume, you go look at Huntington and Gallus's volume.
Right? Go look at the volume profile since February ofary of this year you know what i think would be
interesting you know what we should do yeah um we've been talking throwing around the live stream
idea no i i'm kind of just interested i i'm interested in the defense area a good bit and
and i know you are too oh i could talk all day i'd love to do like once a week we find like a
different defense name and just like go through like the
the it's kind of bad the business of war like the war of stocks or whatever or something like that
but i'd be interested in it yeah i mean i there's a i've i spent a lot of the late last year
november december time doing research on those names so i'd be happy to do that if we want to
do a little special on that but um and monitor would be great person to do it with um because he's knowledge very knowledgeable
on those but currently my aerospace and defense basket is four names i guess embrace is kind of
not doesn't really count because they're not as defense focused but they do have defense
component to their business but if you count embrace four if, it's four. If not, it's three, which is Kratos, Huntington & Gallus, and Mercury Systems, MRCY. That's my current basket. Earlier in the year, I owned Leonardo DRS, which has been just a monster. I honestly wish I didn't sell it. It does nothing but go up, which is a great company. I used to own Standard Aero as well, which is one of my favorite names in the sector. That has also been a monster stock.
So there's a lot of names.
Yeah, I could come up with probably 10 mid-cap and defense names that I like a lot.
ETF that I hold.
FEIM is one, two.
ETF that I hold, some of XAR.
You know, Rock to Labs, the second largest holding in here, interestingly.
It has Kratos, third, Haumet, four, Heiko, Huntington, and Gallus. Haumet's been great. helmet for hyco huntington and gallus
i don't think i thought it was huntington or in gals or something i don't know if it was in gallus
axon transdigium bwx technologies and general dynamics i always say in gallus but it is ingles
you're right i don't know why i say you got me to say it there i was like i know i was gonna comment
how you're wrong no but you but you brought up Howmet.
Howmet has been a monster.
It's one of the best performing stocks of the year.
You know, a lot of people don't look at Howmet, but it's been a monster.
You know, it actually had a crazy volume candle a couple of days ago, too, on that rebalancing. So, yeah, mid-cap aerospace and defense has been not an area where a lot of people have talked about this year,
but they have been hella performers in terms of the stocks.
And I think I've talked about them all year on these spaces, but certainly tweeted about them a lot, too.
But that's a great place to be.
So, you know, I feel well balanced here because I have data center exposure.
I have broad tech exposure.
I have short interest exposure and I have aerospace and defense exposure.
And that's sort of my basket.
And nuclear as well, obviously, with Centris Energy and GSRT.
But I'm very comfortable with everything I own.
And I don't always say that.
Sometimes I have about five or six positions where I'm like, oh, it's teetering on the edge.
I don't know if I'm going to keep it.
And it's funny because I close positions all the time that end up going higher.
And then sometimes I get questions from people like, oh, why'd you sell it?
Like, it ended up going higher.
Like, you teach us not to get shaken out of stuff.
You have to understand that it's not always just about whether you get shaken in and out of the trade
or whether you own it at a certain time or who called it first.
That's another funny thing on Twitter, right?
Like who called it first?
Like I called it before you like, okay, did you hold it?
You know, did you hold it through the volatility?
Okay.
You called it $4, but did you keep it?
That's what matters, right?
Like calling stuff doesn't mean shit.
And I know a lot of people in the audience are going to be like kind of
scratching their heads at this.
Pretty much all of FinTwit is just like people saying, I called it.
I called this.
I called that.
And don't get me wrong.
I do it too, right?
But when I call things, I really call them.
I don't say like there's thousands of people in our Discord community, okay?
Any of them could call me a liar to my face right now if if if this wasn't
true or could comment on the space i literally say i'm buying this this is why i'm buying it
i don't say this might go up this might go down i just say hey i'm buying this this is why i'm
buying it you want to buy it too cool that's it like that's a call and saying oh i'm selling it
now or i'm holding it like that's what trading and investing is about.
It's not about having an idea that's going to go up.
You could ask a 15-year-old kid, hey, like what company do you think is cool?
And you'd say like, oh, I don't know.
Like my mom buys Starbucks every morning.
You buy Starbucks and like the stock goes up.
Like does that make you a genius?
And that sort of stuff annoys me.
But that's all a fin to it. Fintwit. People just want to
be like, oh, I called this stock. Now look how cool I am, even though most of them don't even
own the names. You have guys on Twitter that are quote tweeting posts from two years ago
because the stock is up. And I guarantee you 90% of them don't even own the stock anymore.
They got shaken out on some sell-off months ago or years ago,
and now they want to brag that they called out a stock.
All that shit is nonsense.
Only follow people.
I should say this.
Only follow people for trading advice who share their own performance
and who tell you what they own and when they're buying it and selling it.
If they're not telling you all those things, it's just bullshit.
So keep that in mind.
For those people that are following influencers on Twitter
and listening to what they're telling you to buy and sell,
make sure they're putting their money where their mouth is
and also that they are not just lollygagging
and calling different things every week
and then quote tweeting the posts
and pretending like they know how to trade.
Because the reality is most people are very bad at position management. Very bad. Even smart people. Even smart people. Even the
guys who can write a 20-page sub stack on a stock doesn't mean they're going to hold it.
Doesn't mean they're going to leverage it properly or size it properly.
They could write a whole story on a stock. It doesn't matter.
Like, people confuse someone's intelligence as, like, you know,
oh, the guy's intelligent, he sounds smart, he must be a good trader.
That doesn't mean shit.
I know a lot of smart people that can't trade for shit.
Like, I have friends that are multimillionaires and cousins of mine that are multimillionaires that are adults.
They're not like kids.
They're, you know, in their 30s and 40s,
and they can't manage market positions for shit.
Every time a stock's red 2%, they'll call me.
My cousin will call me, oh, my God, what do I do?
They're terrible investors and traders,
and they're very smart people.
That's pretty normal.
So, yeah, follow people that show you how they're doing themselves.
And if they don't, then they're probably full of shit, period.
That's, like, the most simple way I can put Twitter.
If they don't show you how they're doing themselves, they're probably full of shit.
And, you know, keep that in mind when you're taking ideas from people, you know, or you're piggybacking ideas from people.
Keep that in mind that most of them don't hold the stocks they talk about.
Most of them don't still own them.
You know, even though they made a call 11 months ago on some name and said it was going to go higher.
And meanwhile, the market itself is higher by 20 percent.
And the name went up. Well, no shit, Sherlock.
Right. It matters when you time your entries into these
things. When did you buy? When did you sell? What was your plan? Did you use the right amount of
leverage? Did you size it properly? Was it a high conviction position? Was it a low conviction
position? Did you buy only options? Did you buy equity? How much equity did you buy? Are you long
enough? What's the weighting in your portfolio? This is what matters to performance. Ideas do not matter to performance at all.
At all. You know, finding good idea, finding good stocks is not hard. It is not hard. Finding a
stock that will go up is not hard at all. There's thousands and thousands of stocks out there.
What's hard is owning it, managing it, sizing in and out of leverage, monitoring short-term exposure, building into longer-term exposure, monitoring pullbacks versus breakdowns.
That's the work that goes into position management that makes you an excellent outperformer.
If you want to outperform the markets year after year after year, those are the things that matter, not the stocks that you pick.
The stocks that you pick are actually not very relevant to it.
Most individual stocks have a higher beta than a broad-based index like SPY or the Qs.
Most of them do, okay?
Maybe with a handful of exceptions and like industrials and oil and gas and stuff.
So if you size appropriately and manage appropriately, that gives you the keys to outperforming the index.
You already have the vehicles for it.
Vehicles are the individual stocks.
So people should focus, the net net of what I'm saying is, people should focus much more, much more.
I'm talking about two to one on the management of their positions, the entries, the exits, the
trims, the leverage, the size, those things, as opposed to the ideas, as opposed to like, this is
a cool idea. I'm going to buy it. Like, no, that's not how you make real money. You make money by
really thinking about, okay, I like this idea. What do I like about it? Okay. I like the technical
structure. Okay. I think the catalyst is really powerful. Oh, it's also in a theme that's been
really hot in the markets for a few years. Okay. I take a glance at the volume profile. Wow.
Littered with accumulation, high volume bars everywhere. You pick up those kinds of signals
and you build conviction, right? You go read the last analyst report that came out and you're like, oh, my God, this guy's nailing every point.
I like that.
I like that.
I like that.
That makes sense.
You go take a peep at the balance sheet.
Wow, relatively low PE versus the sector.
This is interesting to me.
Like, I'm just throwing out little observational things now, but all of these things can tick boxes for you and build conviction.
can tick boxes for you and build conviction. And from there, it's up to you to manage that
position differently than you do your lower conviction positions, right? Because you're
also going to have stocks that you buy for less convincing reasons, right? You might have a stock
you buy sometime because you're like, oh, this theme's hot. I've traded this in the past. It
works for me. I'm going to get long again. You don't want to own that thing for 20 years, but it's a much simpler thesis and much simpler
idea.
And by virtue of being so, it is a lower conviction idea.
And so you manage it differently than you do that previous position.
You're more willing to take profits on the pops, sell into strength, right?
You're more willing to cut the position on the first
sign of weakness. But on that higher conviction position, you're doing the opposite. You're not
selling into strength. You're buying weakness, right? Two positions, same portfolio, right?
Both your original ideas, but the management is completely the opposite. But that's what builds
super performance, right? Like,
I trade all these stocks. I mentioned all these stocks here every day or every week,
sometimes different industries, sometimes different sectors. Sometimes I'm in them for a couple of weeks. Sometimes I'm in them for a couple of months. That stuff's all gravy and it
helps my performance. Okay. It takes a lot of work, but yeah, it helps my performance. Those
trades and swings I make along the way, they certainly help. But what really drives my
performance is the stocks, the high conviction stocks that I built into. Like if you look at
my performance this year, I posted earlier this week, isn't that 91 ish percent today as of the
close at like 94% year to date. If you look at my performance year to date, it's been driven mainly
by three stocks. The vast majority of my performance been driven by Robinhood,
right? Which is up, I don't know what, 125, 130% year to date now. Nebius, which is more than
doubled year to date and Centris Energy, which is more than doubled year to date.
Those three positions, Robinhood, Centris and Nebius have driven almost all of my outperformance
by themselves. Why? Because I had size in them.
Because I leveraged my conviction properly in those positions.
And guess what?
In the meantime, while those stocks, all three of them went on to double this year,
I didn't sell any.
Any.
But in the meantime, I sold plenty of trades.
I bought and sold plenty of trades.
In the meanwhile, while in the background, Nebius and Robinhood and Centris were just going up and going up and going up.
That's how you build portfolio of performance.
You have your horses, your stalwarts, your core positions that work for you day in and day out.
And then you have accelerators to the portfolio.
You have your catalyst trades, your theme trades,
your day trades, whatever, all that risk and speculation stuff, you have that as an accelerator.
And you're much tighter with the risk management on the trading side than you are on the investing side, or at least I am. When I'm in a position that I want to own for a long time, I don't get
shaken out of it because it sells below the 21 EMA. On the contrary, if I'm in a position that I'm trading for a catalyst and it sells below
the 21 EMA, yeah, I probably am out.
So again, very different lines of management for positions depending on your level of conviction
and depending on your time horizon for those positions.
And over time, your points of conviction may not look like mine.
Like I gave you guys some examples just now. And by the way, I know I talk fast. So if you ever
want to go back and listen to these things, every one of our spaces is recorded. So you can go and
do that later on if you missed something I said. But I know I talk fast. So apologies for that.
But anyway, you base your management on your conviction level
and that's how you build a portfolio you have these stocks where four or five years later you'll look
at them and go wow i'm so glad i held that equity you know i'm up whatever two three hundred percent
on the equity you know and i made might have made all these trades along the way but that that stock just kept performing for me that winner kept performing for
me and you might have two or three stocks like that you know and then you have plenty of capital
or you should have plenty of capital if you've sized appropriately to trade in the meanwhile
whether it's in the same account for me most of my stock assets are all in my same account. But for some of you, it's split into a trading account,
investing account, whatever, however you do it,
however it makes you comfortable.
But that's what it allows you to do, right?
And so the game of outperformance is much more about
A, position management, and B, buying power management
than it is about what stocks you pick.
Much more, like, again, by magnitudes.
And once you learn that, and you recognize recognize that you'll be a better trader overnight and you'll figure like it'll it'll be like a puzzle piece for you to say, wow, I should focus a lot more on managing my existing positions than having FOMO about everything in the market that might be going up or down or getting scared about everything in the market that might be hitting in terms of news.
You just focus on your basket of positions and focus on managing them well and having these points of confluence and points of confidence in your opinion that you can build over time.
That's how you become a good trader.
And it takes a while.
You know, it takes trial and error and takes a while. And I sucked at first, too.
You know, but now I'm confident enough that I can manage 20 positions at once and do very well.
And, you know, hedge when appropriate and take off risk when appropriate.
But those things don't come to you automatically.
Do we have, David, are you buying the Quant account i am i love that conversation i am i'm an investor in nevius and i am undersized um and was late to the game for sure uh but a former
stock portfolio manager in a sofi gig economy etf that and they'd say they had a really good year
but um i love everything you said i wonder what percentage of like fin twit is just kind of feels like they're just on top of the world since this
all really kicked off with like free trading on robin hood in 2020 um so much of the this world
actually kicked off directly because of the opportunity cost of having zero trades and humans, uh, you know, are very simple animals and
we treat things very differently when it's, you know, five cents for any service or offering
versus free. Um, and so it's just kind of been, you know, every, everyone's made money and I
think everyone feels like a guru. So I'd love that. Thank you.
Yep, I would agree that everyone does feel like a guru and it's easy to feel like that
when you're in euphoric markets.
You know, one of the topics
we were talking about earlier, David,
which I actually think is a good segue,
we were kind of talking about, you know,
the US interest rates, everything like that,
you know, basically buying US treasuries.
And the argument Stock Talk was making was the Tina of there is no one else. interest rates, everything like that, you know, basically buying U.S. treasuries.
And the argument Stock Talk was making was the Tina of there is no one else.
There is no other argument here.
And I know the Bitcoin gold people will come in and tell you what they think the other side of it is.
And I even came in there and said that to Stock Talk.
And whereas there are some things he would have swatted away.
I don't know if it's just Bitcoin at $109K that he didn't fully.
But he kind of accepted that one a little bit more than some of the other ones.
So maybe you can kind of rehash what that conversation was.
And maybe if I said your points in the right way.
And then I'd love to hear David's thought on it.
Yeah, I mean, I think crypto has become just by nature a larger part of the financial ecosystem in the last five years.
I was definitely more of a skeptic five years ago than i am today uh but that's what happens when markets you know
accumulate size like a market having size is a sort of gravity to it where you know it becomes
too big to fail in effect and your bitcoin has certainly become too big to fail or at least it
seems like it obviously that risk is still there that there's some kind of crazy quantum development or whatever.
And people have some other, you know, I won't call them fairytale risks, but potential risks down the road.
So that's always there.
But I mean, yeah, it's become sort of an indisposable part of the financial ecosystem now.
And that trend is probably up and to the right i would imagine you
know you're seeing blockchain be used for things outside of crypto now with like what robin hood
just did with tokenized equities um you know that's probably going to become a bigger trend
you know you're headed for probably 24 7 trading of stocks in the next few years as well so you
know there's a lot of accelerants
to it. But yeah, on the on the Treasury side of what you were mentioning, you know, I do think
that there is maybe a little bit too much apocalyptic fear around Treasury markets because
of what I said, because of the Tina argument. And, you know, I don't think they're in the best shape.
And I do think it's something to be concerned about, at least in the back of your mind, where yields are by the end of the year, maybe even going into next year. But I don't think they're in the best shape. And I do think it's something to be concerned about, at least in the back of your mind, where yields are by the end of the year,
maybe even going into next year.
But I don't think you lose your mind over it just yet.
Not until they give us a reason.
Actually, I think last call I had with you guys,
we kicked off talking about treasuries.
I went long treasuries, I think like towards the end of May,
made a little bit of money on it.
I'm still holding it but uh it's still good
diversifier good trading vehicle right it's long-term probably downtrend it's not something
you want to hold like you alluded to this is like something that you trade and if you get huge
like bumps in it you take some games and you sprinkle it elsewhere um but you know i think
at times it will just have negative correlation benefits, just not always.
Whereas like the last three years, we rarely saw any kind of negative correlation benefits.
Yeah, super interesting time right now with everything happening in these markets.
David, are we going to get this next move on Bitcoin soon?
Oh my gosh, I'm hoping we cross 110 on this call.
It was tariffs that took down the last peak on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin last peaked on May 22nd.
And gold last peaked right at the beginning of the Iran war. But we see him on the precipice of
both really breaking out to new highs on this big, beautiful bill, which makes a whole lot of sense
because I think, you know, as Evan alluded to, I don't think, you know, Evan's a all of a sudden
a crypto perma bull, but he just recognizes that like, you know, our fiscal situation that the U S finds
us in is, is so dire and it seems to only be getting worse. And, um, we need to find assets
that have some store value and some, some level of scarcity. Um, the idea of just saying a store
value needs to be something in your bank account that like stays stable. It should be out of your mind because, you know, your European summer trip just costs you 15% more this summer than it did last summer, just because of how quickly the dollars eroded and lost value this year.
I'll pause and I guess I didn't really introduce myself, but hi everyone.
Thank you for having me.
I'm David.
I'm the founder of Quantify Funds and we launched the stacked 100 bitcoin 100 gold etf ticker btgd back in the fall of
october it's been a really fun stretch uh we do a a form of leverage called portable alpha
that allows this thing to have two things to rebalance in between within the portfolio
to have two things to rebalance in between within the portfolio,
this being Bitcoin and gold, so both 100% Bitcoin and 100% gold.
So we don't really care what outperforms what between Bitcoin and gold.
We just need the collective exposure between the two
to just outpace the cost of margin,
which we access through futures markets,
which are the most cost effective form of
margin on both Bitcoin and gold right now.
Yeah, it's pretty fascinating to me.
And I think perfect time to talk about it, David, with this bill, you know, raising the
debt ceiling 5 trillion here.
It just seems pretty clear that the US dollar is going to continue to get massively devalued.
I'm kind of, you know, I'm kind of shocked that we were kind of talking about this earlier. It feels like that bill,
whatever you want, would be bullish for stocks, bullish for the companies with pricing power.
It feels like it would also be bullish for Bitcoin. And I was even just looking at the chart,
the argument for a while was Bitcoin was just moving off of queues or whatever. And you could
argue that the stock market has
taken a leg higher over here over the last little month where bitcoin has gone sideways so i don't
know it feels like it does it is ready for a move above 110 120 130 we'll see before i also i have
some some things which maybe we'll talk about a little later but i'll digress back and not interrupt
you again go Gov.
No, you're good.
I was just going to ask, like, David,
it seems to me that, you know, this bill,
they're trying to push it through by July 4th, which, of course, unlikely that it gets through by July 4th,
but who knows?
That was kind of Trump's date.
If it does get through,
I could think that over the holiday weekend,
right there, we could start seeing an absolute surge in Bitcoin.
And gold, to be honest, is really not slowed down too much. I know it's kind of been consolidating
through April, but it's not like it's pulled back, right? It's still sitting here over 300
on GLD. And so I look at it and I say both of these assets look like they are just primed to
break out. And I do think that this bill could be the catalyst.
And for people looking to play it, BTGD kind of rides that line between the two.
And so that's why, obviously, you know, BTGD are basically at all-time highs right now.
It had another huge spike today, 4.5% on the ETF.
It's up, you know, 35% here to date.
I believe the all-time highs are right up about maybe 50 cents from here.
So I'm looking at this going, these all look like they're ready to surge.
And you've got a clear catalyst, at least in my eyes.
Curious, your thoughts maybe more on this catalyst.
Yeah, I mean, I think as everything, it'll get leaked and it'll, you know,
a couple hours before the bill actually gets signed, it'll start peaking.
I think it could start peaking way in advance of that.
And I think, you know, any tweaks to the bill at this time are probably not going to be monumental.
So the writing's on the wall in the direction we're heading, at least for the foreseeable future.
And it's just going to be more debt, more debt, more debt. You're right that like it's moved
equity markets a little bit, or M2 has moved equity markets in greater
magnitude over the last couple weeks.
And it has Bitcoin.
Everyone has all their random theories.
If you look at like the flows that we've received over this time period, it's definitely
a little bit of an outlier event.
There's some people, for example, like Tom Lee was on TV stating that he believes it's
just there's enough people who were early on Bitcoin that, you know, had this number of like, I'm going to take my opportunity to trim some if it ever gets to this magical number that is $100,000.
And we've just been fighting that a little bit.
And, you know, look, we could we could cross all time highs in the next 15 minutes the way this market is going.
highs in the next 15 minutes the way this market is going. So I would say between now and when that
bill is signed, you're probably going to see that, in my opinion, not financial advice, see that kind
of continue to raise all time highs and not in the same fury. We similarly expect gold to have a very
strong performance over the coming years and even in the short term period for the same reason.
strong performance over the coming years and even in the short term period for the same reason.
It's also exceptionally under-owned by the institutional space. Just like Bitcoin is
exceptionally under-owned by the institutional space. At what point as a financial advisor
are you doing a disservice to your clients to just have no Bitcoin? And these platforms are
just starting to allow people to allocate client assets to Bitcoin.
From my perspective, it's like the pool of people that who are potential allocators to be GGD on the
institutional side is growing leaps and bounds every single day, which is phenomenal. But we
just have to start getting them a little bit over the edge here. But honestly, I'd be surprised if it didn't happen
even before the bill was signed for all-time highs on at least Bitcoin.
Yeah, you were talking with me the other night. We were having dinner about some of the changes
that are being made allowing financial advisors to directly add Bitcoin and Bitcoin-related
products. Right. Can you elaborate on that? Yeah. So for the most part, pretty much all major firms have blocked all use of crypto
related products. And the few that did allow would not allow it in an advisory account. So the advisor
couldn't actually bill on those assets. It'd have to be in like a traditional brokerage account.
And there was additional disclosures that they had to sign.
And these big firms were just trying to COIA cover their assets as much as possible
and just viewed it as a risk that was just not worth it for them.
Obviously, with the administration being so pro Bitcoin and so pro crypto,
that's changed, but it's starting to change.
And it's just happening little by little.
LPL now has an allotted allocation for specific crypto-related ETFs that the advisors can use on discretion.
And none of the big wire house banks have it at all whatsoever, especially not on discretion.
especially not on discretion.
And the use of discretion is the key term there
because your RA is a fiduciary to you
and they have to use their best discretion
and this is not even available for them to use.
And oftentimes you might even have a situation
where your advisor is not legally allowed
to discuss cryptocurrencies with you.
That's how tight-lipped this has been.
And the same conversation that Evan had in his head where he's like, this is becoming adopted.
This is a thing. I could argue how big of a thing it could or couldn't be. Sure. But it is a thing
and it's going to be around, right? Saylor will tell you the coins that $1 million is zero and
it's not going to zero. I have no idea what pace
of growth that could actually occur, but this is something that the institutional world that hasn't
gotten ahead of this is now scratching their heads and getting more and more questions as to
why they're not getting ahead of it. The average person understands that 95% of Bitcoin that'll
ever be mined has already been mined. So what we did in this vehicle is just prepackaged these two assets together and we rebalanced
And unlike a traditional leverage ETF that doesn't give you your intended leverage ratio,
we get much closer to without your action because of the rebalancing that's done within
the portfolio, giving you that intended 2X exposure
on both Bitcoin and gold.
You know, one thing that I thought was pretty interesting,
a little random, the Figma IPO,
they held some Bitcoin on their thing.
Maybe they've held it for a while,
maybe they were just believers,
but I wonder if these new companies going public,
more and more of them might hold
Bitcoin on their balance sheet, a little IPO marketing coming into it, a little belief. I
don't know. But I thought that was really interesting. And I was like, all right, wow,
that's kind of smart, actually. We're about 2% away from some new all-time highs here on Bitcoin,
maybe 2%, 3% right there. So yeah,
definitely exciting times to have this conversation. Stock Talk, I want to pull you back in and get
your thoughts. I can't imagine that you're hugely in favor of this bill. I'm wondering how you
think that this is going to affect gold, Bitcoin, and if you have exposure.
Yeah, we were just talking earlier, I have a ton of exposure to the miners right now. I think they're in a unique valuation situation with the cores buyout, the I mean, you know, there's sort of been a realization on the fiscal side over the last, really since
the great financial crisis, uh, that, you know, we're not going to stop spending blue
or red.
Doesn't matter.
Uh, you know, Elon was sort of saying yesterday saying yesterday it's a unit party.
When it comes to spending,
it certainly is.
And this has been true for a long time.
And I'm not talking about any sort of
unit party conspiracy here. I just mean
in the sense that Republicans and Democrats
both spend like drunken sailors.
That has just universally been true for
I don't know, four plus decades.
And it didn't really matter when we didn't have a deficit problem, right? Like, in absolute terms, the debt isn't an issue,
in absolute terms. But it is an issue when you pair it with the deficit and with the annual spend,
right? So the debt is a problem in the context of the deficit and the annual budget. If the annual spend, right? So the debt is a problem in the context of the deficit and the
annual budget. If the annual budget and the deficit were much lower, then of course the debt
would be servicing the debt and eventually weaning down the debt would be a more surmountable burden.
But because of where the deficit is, because of the acceleration in spending levels, it's become a pretty dangerous situation,
fiscally more dangerous, I think, than it has been really since, I don't know, all of modern history.
So yeah, it is a concern. And I understand Elon's concern about it,
and I understand a lot of politicians concerned about it, that, look, at some point,
concerned about it that look at some point washington has to put the special interests
aside and just prioritize the health the fiscal health of future american generations but they
have not been willing to do that so far neither republicans nor democrats and that's just but i
would argue it's almost i think people are more scared now because they claimed and that they were
going to try.
And then they went,
man,
that didn't work.
Let's just not issue 10 year auctions and just do everything short term.
Let's plan B let's do that.
That's like,
that's the backup plan that we've found ourselves in.
Right.
Yeah. Yeah. I agree. And that's not a great scenario we've found ourselves in, right? Yeah, yeah, I agree.
And that's not a great scenario either.
But I mean, look, fiscal irresponsibility always ends badly.
It's just a matter of when.
And when the vehicle of that fiscal irresponsibility is the most powerful government in the world,
is the most powerful government in the world, you get a little more leeway than you would
if you were an individual who was, you know, 50 months delinquent on your mortgage, they're
just going to take your house, right?
From the standpoint of debt collection, no one can take the United States house, no one
poses a threat to us from debt burden in terms of a direct kinetic military threat.
So really, this is just a matter of the implications of fiscal responsibility on the sale of our debt, right?
On the implications of fiscal responsibility on the sale of U.S. treasuries and, you know, how that will complicate our economic future thereby.
And so when it comes to golden
Bitcoin, yes, I do agree that this is an accelerant for them. The, the drunk fiscal spending
for years that is likely to continue for years is an accelerant for any kind of safe haven.
So yeah, I think you're bullish for golden Bitcoin. Absolutely. Fiscal irresponsibility
is bullish for golden Bitcoin and probably actually another thesis for why there's been
a little bit more juice in equity markets
than Bitcoin over the last couple of weeks could be because of how stealth our operations
actually were in the assistance in the war.
Just because from what I read, apparently nobody saw any of our pilots coming at all
whatsoever.
China didn't. Russia didn't.
And it was more so like a show of force of what we can do to the rest of the world.
And, you know, that was something that probably backed the U.S. dollar,
which probably gives a little more boost to U.S. equities than it does to Bitcoin.
I'm just theorizing on why we've had this delay in this pop,
which it feels like people have been waiting for so long.
So, Gav, how close are we? Any closer than 2%?
I'm watching it very intently at the moment.
We've not broken 110 yet, so that'll be when we'll be a little bit closer.
But at the moment, we did just have a nice little move up here here at about 200 bucks so actually you know what
yeah maybe maybe we're within like 1.8 now you know this would be the most yawning uh bitcoin
top or or uh new high like ever like there's no one's going crazy or anything and this is the
exact thing that uh again this is what the advisors have to sit around and think about is, man, if this thing goes, this thing rips 115, 118.
You know, those five clients that have been asking about this for years are like, are you kidding me?
You're going to miss out on this again.
A whole lot of people have pressure to at least take a starter position in their portfolio.
And honestly, I get why people don't. It's hard.
It's a volatile asset. It's one of the reasons why we made BTGD and stacked Bitcoin on top of
gold here is because we take some of that onus out of their balancing. I don't think that BTGD
needs to be your entirety of your Bitcoin and gold position. You can have some Bitcoin and gold
independent of it and then a slice between the two that will actually do the rebalancing.
As Evan alluded to, sizing and rebalancing methodologies, especially outside
of your individual positions, right?
Let's say you have some broader allocations or how do you allocate to gold or Bitcoin
or how do you size that in your portfolio?
Having something that can actually do a rebalancing mechanism and recognize value from
distortions in either direction,
of which we've seen the seesaw go back and forth in this product.
First, it was Bitcoin to the races, and then it was gold,
and now it appears to be Bitcoin once more.
But are you actually trading through those periods?
And if not, this is a unique way to get leverage to both of them.
I like to say, again, we don't care who's better, Bitcoin or gold.
We just care that they're both better than the dollar.
Can you tell me more about that rebalancing between the two and like, you know, what you
guys are trying to do and like why that matters in this, you know, in this case?
Yeah.
So there's two assets that move in opposite directions.
For those who've been around the fund world for a long time,
you might recall PIMCO Stock Plus funds.
They were total 200% exposure funds,
half stocks, half bonds.
Similar concept here, just doing it to Bitcoin and gold.
Bitcoin and gold have long-term correlation of about 4%,
so quite uncorrelated to each other.
And we've seen that even as of late,
that they seem to be almost seesawing day in, day out between the two.
But anytime you have the ability to rebalance,
it removes some of that path dependency that you would see in a traditional
leveraged ETF.
Leveraged ETFs are not bad.
They just need to be maintained and
trimmed and added to and you always have to have an eye on them. And typically you're going to end
up rebalancing three times a week potentially just to stay on target with your leverage ratio.
And then you don't have to worry as much about slippage, but that's very hard for a lot of
people to do, to be trading at 345 without emotion, you know, three times a week and
making sure they're trimming and adding to their position to reach their intended leverage ratio.
Or instead of leveraging the same asset ETF, we will do that rebalancing. So generally we'll
rebalance on about a 5% drift between
Bitcoin and gold. That usually equates to about two to three trades a week. We do it
with tax consideration and cost in mind. We'll stick to the big futures as the most cost
effective way to trade these ETFs day in, day out to, you know, I think our, you know, a normal trading day cost
will be like $3 of future trading costs, maybe like 450, something like that. Nothing insignificant
for a $40 million fund. But these are all things that like, again, as you know, you guys talked
about at the tail end of the last hour, it's really hard to build in these structural procedures to always do the difficult things during the emotional times.
And that meant the first time Bitcoin hit 108, you're trimming and you're adding to gold, even though it feels irrational.
And then vice versa, when Bitcoin crashed below 80,000 and gold was soaring.
And now on this side as well.
Today, we had to add to our gold portfolio to balance out the imbalance between Bitcoin and gold.
We didn't have to sell any Bitcoin to do so.
We just had to add to gold to get it back to 100 and 100.
And there's a lot of value in doing that.
Everyone talks about the value of stocks and bonds and the imbalance between the two over
the 2010s, right?
That's the same concept with Bitcoin and gold, the risk off and risk on
asset of choice, if you will. And you don't have to sacrifice one for the other because we're not,
you know, selling Bitcoin to buy gold. You have 100% exposure to both. So I'm like, this is not
your 60-40, this is your 100% and your 100%. And I can tell you, had you stacked just treasuries on top of the S&P 500
during the 2010s, that would have significantly outperformed just the S&P 500. And a lot of that
outperformance would have came directly from the rebalancing, not just allowing the two to drift
independently. Same concept here. These are always going to be scarcity assets,
in our opinion, at least for the foreseeable future. And we think there's other options
and other ways to get beta, we would argue with less efficiency on the Sharpe ratio.
Any geeks out there that want to read some research from us, please, you can check out
some information on Quantify Funds. But I have an interesting write up for the case for Bitcoin and gold,
where we compare to, you know, leverage Bitcoin, leverage gold, gold miners, junior gold miners,
leverage gold miners, MSTY, MSTX, a whole lot of different ways that people have tried to access
Bitcoin and gold with different investment thesis and profiles. And we've had by far the highest Sharpe ratio of all of them.
And for those who don't understand what Sharpe is, Sharpe is a measure to normalize return
across different vehicles that might have different risk profiles. So you normalize
the return of a vehicle to normalize the level of risk. So you normalize the return of a vehicle
to normalize the level of risk.
So you can compare different things
that have different volatility profiles.
I just spoke way too much.
So let's see if there's any questions
or anyone else who wants to jump in and say anything.
Yeah, it's a lot of good thoughts shared.
I just wanted to share with Tropic real quick,
see if you had any thoughts or questions here. Yeah, really's a lot of good thoughts shared. I just wanted to share it with Tropic real quick, see if you had any thoughts or questions here.
You had said that institutions are underexposed to Bitcoin.
So I was just wondering, what do you consider a moderate or reasonable exposure for institutions,
considering where we're standing right now, you think is underexposed?
Oh my gosh.
So, you know, did you guys see how, did you see Rick Edelstein's most recent recommendation?
Edelman, Rick Edelman's most recent crypto recommendation.
So Rick Edelman founded the largest RA in the country and sold his stake to it. His
actual RA only had about a half a percent allocation to Bitcoin, but he came out with
a statement recommending 10 to 40% in crypto related assets.
Obviously, now that he's no longer, he sold the firm. That's not his words specifically.
What I will say is I have myself and my clients always between about five and 6%.
And I consider myself to be pretty conservative individual. So again, that's not financial advice.
myself to be pretty conservative individual. So again, that's not financial advice. But you know,
BlackRock said this year, coming into this year, one to 2% allocations were recommended,
they're probably gonna increase that number by the end of the next year, just question of how
high it is, two to four, two to 5%. And you can see where the trend is going. So I would say,
you know, anything is better than zero uh this is a very volta class i would
think less of like obviously it's important to have an end target on your allocation but i would
get there in in in slices and and if you are in zero on crypto you don't need to get to five six
percent overnight you just need to slowly slowly drip into those assets over time,
especially increase your drip or your frequency if you see any volatility in it.
But I think the real, you know, the institutional world as a whole,
I think there's a chart that came out the year that said
it was right around a 1% to 1.5% allocation of their portfolio.
So the question is, like, we know there's a number of institutions that are
north of 40, but you remove that, where is everyone else going to fall on a normal bell curve?
And I'm betting it's going to end up being greater than one and a half. It's for the same reason for
the conversation that we kicked off this call or the call prior that you guys were talking about
is nobody wants to believe in treasuries for defensive
assets anymore, right? So you need to find a mix and a basket. Bitcoin is more volatile than gold
and treasuries. So even a little bit can move the needle there for you. But, you know, outside of
the proper stocks that you're allocating to, which is exceptionally important to your long-term
returns, like the other thing you can do is have structural tools built into your portfolio
that won't always, but sometimes provide negative correlation or benefits to the rest of your
portfolio. And obviously Bitcoin has a lot of correlation to risk assets. Its magnitude is
coming down, but it's along with whether it's treasuries or gold,
et cetera, these are mixes of these vehicles can provide you a lot of diversification and
dry powder when the equity markets do blow up so you can reallocate to your favorite stocks
in your watch list that are now all on sale. But it's hard to do that in this
world unless you can access margin without it costing you your beta. Long-winded way of saying
that these are great tools to give you a little bit of intelligent leverage in your overall
portfolio without having to depend on margin on your actual account, which, you know, depending on who you are, could be very difficult to get competitive rates in the, uh, on, on margin.
Um, and even if you can get competitive rates on margin, uh, if you have no
experience doing it, the fear of waking up to a margin call, et cetera, uh,
this alleviates that completely.
So the, the margin is embedded into the product, uh, and it's designed to be
held and
allocated to. So that's great for like an aggressive model,
especially in like retirement accounts. Yeah.
Hope that answers that question.
Yeah. Really, really, really interesting.
And kind of goes off of the last thing that you said too.
Just have one more question before I pass the mic.
Kind of, I guess you'd say more of like the newbie side question um but i'm sure somebody else has it too as well right
um besides say that the margin call um what benefits would someone who might be exploring
this as opposed to just saying do 2x leverage on gold, 2x leverage on Bitcoin separately and just kind of sitting back.
Is there other benefits and considerations that someone that might be exploring their options of whether they should do that
or pursue or entering through BTGD, what considerations would go into that?
that yeah returns returns and risk uh because then correlated the question is are you going to
Yeah, returns. Returns and risk.
actively rebalance again it doesn't need to be 100 100 in your book but are you going to actually
rebalance between the two um i referenced that paper the case for bitcoin and gold the first
chart on it is a risk reward chart that shows all these assets 2x bitcoin 2x gold versus btgd since our inception
and just buying 2x bitcoin and 2x gold you would have underperformed btgd by a good amount
if you just did that and you just held because those etfs can be quite path dependent
2x gold has been much less path dependent over that time period than 2x bitcoin but
you actually have to add your own level of rebalancing between those assets which if you
could do without emotion is fantastic i just don't know that many people who did a little bit
of trimming of bitcoin at 108 the first time, buying again at 80, etc.
And just doing the unemotional.
These don't have to be massive swings in your portfolio, right?
If you're going to get to 3-4% of Bitcoin, this can be a 1-1.5% allocation of that on both sides.
And it allows some rebalancing to occur between the two that you might not just have the time or emotional ability to do when things get
very volatile really cool pass the mic back to you guys this is really cool conversation
learning quite a bit here so really appreciate your time
yeah this was fantastic um i think we covered it really well i mean this is perfect timing as well with the bill coming up i personally would not be surprised to see some significant uh movement in this area
um you know only we're only continuing to see more and more interest in names like bitcoin and
i really do feel like gold has kind of been winding up as well look at that gold five minute
chart for today you'll see it's i mean that's beautiful just winding up to the top here um wedge continues to move up as well so i'm pretty happy with it
taking one more look at btgd yeah you've definitely seen you've had some crazy volume
days there's a big volume day back on june 18th as well uh that's going to cover most of this i
know that we got to wrap up here but david do you have any other pieces that you'd like to put into the mix here before we do i no uh thank you all please uh
give us a follow up on a five funds give myself a follow david jacansky um and uh sign up for some
of our future research on our website we appreciate all your times i'm sorry we couldn't celebrate
all time highs today but hopefully sometime in the near future.
Yeah, we'll do it on the next one. Looking forward to it. Thanks so much for coming on, David.
All right. Perfect. Devin, I'll turn it back over to you.
Nice, Guff. I'll turn it back over to you.
All right. Thank you, sir. Okay. As I i was saying beforehand just getting back into things uh interesting day in the market how about them robin it's tapping a hundred dollars per share
evan do you remember where you're standing out on the balcony uh two months ago looking at robin
and trading under 30 um and like how we couldn't buy we were not allowed to buy shout out rough times allegedly some people didn't listen
no i'm kidding uh am i no i'm not am i all right guys great spaces everybody um it has been nice
hopefully we get some uh google and apple moves tomorrow we'll be watching out for that
yeah i'm excited reminder short day tomorrow market closes at 1 p.m eastern
1 p.m eastern looks like i'm gonna be doing a live stream tomorrow noon to one
big times big time get excited all right squad appreciate you all shout out amp appreciate
tropic and lady trader and quantify funds david and everyone jordan chilling here too
gov everyone uh who was on the space before gonna be it for stocks on spaces this week My funds, David, and everyone. Jordan, chill in here too. Gov.
Everyone who was on The Space before.
Going to be it for Stocks on Spaces this week.
We're not going to be live tomorrow as we're closing early.
But follow this account.
If you enjoy live free content, we'll be back live Monday.
Every single Monday through Thursday when the market's open,
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Come join us.
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Have a great one, team.
