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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Dec. 29, 2025 Duration: 2:02:00Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, traders analyzed the volatility of silver, indicating potential growth opportunities despite recent declines. The conversation also touched on trends in the AI sector, with Nvidia's movements reflecting broader market sentiments, while caution was advised regarding Google's performance.
Full Transcription
All right, all right.
Good afternoon to your team.
I hope you guys are all doing well.
It is a holiday season we got going
on right here. So shortened market week. I'm sure low volatility, low volume, sorry. That is what
I meant to say. I'm sure a decent amount of volatility. The VIX is a little bit low. Yeah,
but welcome back to the stock market this week. It's an interesting holiday week. The market will
be closed on Thursday for New Year's Day. The market is not
closed on New Year's Eve. It does not close at 1. The bond market will be closed. But Thursday,
January 1st, the market will be closed for a day week. For any of you options traders,
if you're looking at the weekly contracts, which who even knows if you should or not,
I'm not that person to tell you. But just keep that in mind that there is one less trading day
this week. And obviously last week was three and a half trading days.
When I look over towards the market, we got a Q's down about 0.4%, a VOO down about 0.3%,
but really not a hugely volatile day.
Obviously silver became a huge story over the last couple days and weeks,
but it's coming to a little bit more of a head over the last couple days.
Absolutely exploded over the last little bit.
And this morning, late last night, was at 80 on futures and now it's it's moved quite a little bit lower
down about seven and a half percent slv is moving lower today which actually will put it on pace for
its worst day since february 2021 now granted it closed it closed friday at all-time highs so we're
coming off a high level but obviously those names have become really really hot over the last couple of days and weeks most of the mag 7 is red we got an apple holding
in green which has been kind of going it's the anti-ai trade we'll call it a little bit but i
do see we have a scott redler up here i'm always a big fan of when scott joins us on these mondays
how you doing mr scott i'm doing good how's it going over there i'm doing well i
am doing well i'm in florida i am in the warm that's a plus market my portfolio is not doing
so bad it's a shortened week it's good stuff going on around family how are you doing how am i doing
i'm pretty local um my son plays basketball so no one's allowed to go away during the holidays
which is fine because my wife's uh
she celebrates christmas i celebrate hanukkah so we being around is good and i don't mind
being around i like to be in my routine i'm a creature of habit i like to do my sauna workout
an ice barrel and then get in here and do all my contact and i feel like i'm missing out um
probably would have been better to be had to beach or in the mountains past few sessions,
you know, but I guess if you had to use a narrative, I would say just in stride, you know, we had a nice five day move from Thanksgiving into Christmas. So to be off for
two days and come in on the spies and accused and test, what did the spies test even today?
The eight day or the 21 day hold on i think it
only tested the eight days so that just goes to show how early the eight day you know how extended
we were kind of felt a little worse to me maybe i had too many positions on it was my fault but
all in all you look at the spies the spies tested the eight day the the queues uh tested uh the eight
day um but there's just really like it just there, there's no momentum. There's no power.
It just doesn't seem like there's a lot of fun in the market. Sometimes it's not like the market's
supposed to be fun, but it would have probably would have been like a lot more fun if silver
opened up at $80 or 81 and we were able to short it this morning. That could have been a fun trade.
Instead, you know, it opened lower, but with all said and done, silver still held the eighth day,
you know, after all the, the, the, the talk and done silver still held the eight day you know
after all the the the talk and the banter and the this and that the bottom line is silver
held the eight day it bounced a little bit we'll see if it tries to fill some of this gap today or
gold because everyone's now trying to figure out whether or not the top is in but you know it's
just an opinion for now what you do is you wait, you know, how many days does it try and hold to days low? And does it try and fill a big portion of,
of the gap that's open? If silver could fill a big portion, which already started in gold,
it'll show you that there's still demand and, you know, and that there's a chance that it could
rebuild and not be done. But if the balance is feeble and things get sold fast, then you'll know,
hey, that could have been the top.
And it makes a little bit of sense.
Had a big move.
Had its blow-off move.
I'm sure everyone here that's been doing this for 20, 30 years knows that parabolic moves don't end well.
And it was in a strong, strong trend that just pretty much went parabolic into Friday's action.
And now here we are, kind of rambling a little bit because there's
nothing that's so exciting like when tesla looked like it was going to break above 498
and get the 500 it failed we're sorry about 495 so now tesla's struggling to hold the 21 day
um so that momentum trade kind of you know left us so that that fun was gone now we're trying to
figure out where it'll hold and maybe this 4613 32 is a low you know apple had its big you know sexy move a month ago and now it's just
trying to prove it could hold this 270 272 and maybe get above 275 this week amazon had a nice
move last week it's acting a little bit better it's just you know i guess it's just a time of
year where it's like okay you know you know, most people made their money.
A lot of people are away.
Do a little bit less.
You have to know what you're committed to because on a two-day down move like Friday into today, if you have 25 positions, you know, it definitely hurts a little bit.
And you're like, wow, I didn't really want to lose that much.
But if you have 25 positions and everything's down a little bit, you know, you lose a little bit 25 which ways and it adds up.
But all, you know, all said said and done it feels pretty healthy small caps you know kind of rebuilding um you know the again the mag 7l's left for dead isn't horrible um the ai trade like
nvidia had a big move from 176 to 192 and now if 185 91 is the low of the week that's not going to be a headwind so it's
like there's different categories uh funny yeah you know is there power and fun are we rebuilding
are we in a corrective mode are we in a do less mode are we in you know get ready to go mode and
right now um feels like we're not ready to go and it feels like we're hanging in and just have to
kind of be a little patient and make sure you're not uh over go, and it feels like we're hanging in, and you just have to kind of be a little patient
and make sure you're not over your skis because, again, like I said,
25 positions or more down for two days in a row could add up more than you want,
especially if you're looking to get paid in December or the fourth quarter,
which is kind of just a little lethargic right here.
I'll keep going. I appreciate it. I just don't feel like rambling on. I feel like if you want to ask me some questions, we can go back and forth. I think if any time is for the ramble on,
this time of year is for it. One thing that we talk about a lot, and maybe this is a good thing
here, and I'd love to hear your thoughts on it cash is a position for traders especially maybe i don't want to say that for investors but for
traders 100 there you can be long you can be short you can be flat and i'd imagine for me
someone who's not actively trading super aggressively and from what i've heard is this
has not been the best tape the best environment to be trading in so like i i am curious of like
is that true?
Am I just kind of saying stuff here that, that you're not seeing on the practice? And,
you know, I think it's like, you know, that's a, that's a fair statement because for me,
you know, as a chief strategist at T3, my job is to find momentum. My job is to find that one to
three day, you know, inflection point where stocks could break out and go for two, three days and give
you some power and some follow-through. Or if it has a day one higher, you could buy day two lower
and by day three, it's going. And it just doesn't feel like it's the market where that's kind of
there. We've been lucky to buy verse levels, trade verse spots. When it finally looked like
Tesla was ready to be super exciting, which was good. It failed when it didn't hold 495.
It failed when it didn't hold $495.
You know, Google's been, it was a bright spot for a while, but it's also been just a
buy-versal level.
Apple's been a buy-versal level.
Amazon, you know, I don't even know what it's been.
Then you have like the ASTSs, which was fun.
You know, ASTS, you know, RKLB made a new high after rebuilding.
You know, ASTS, you know, RKLB made a new high after rebuilding, you know, ASTS though,
they sold into the launch. So you had to say, okay, you know, after, after a move to, you know,
what, almost 90 ish, it failed to hold that 87 ish. So you had to kind of get out of the way,
but then today you could have bought some back. So it's just like, what type of trade is it?
Is there momentum? Is there, is, is, is there like any follow through? Are we buying burst levels? Are we building? Are we able to buy high and sell higher? I feel like a lot of this year we haven't had, you know, you could really just buy high and sell higher. Obviously, silver and gold had an awesome move. People haven't been able to do that in crypto. Everyone thought in October crypto was going to be better and it's been lethargic and out of play.
You know, Bitcoin, Ethereum just has like,
everyone wanted Ethereum to do what silver did and it didn't happen,
you know?
So, um, and anyway, I see what you're saying.
Like I, uh, I'm trying to situate a little bit, which like the last two
sessions, I got a little beat up.
Like I'm trying to situate in a few January effect plays.
So if they're not ready, it could kind of hurt. I'm trying to situate in a few january effect plays so if they're not ready it
could kind of hurt i'm trying to situate into what i think could be a decent move to start the year
which it's not really showing it so when you're trying to situate you know it could cost you money
versus just trading through levels for price action and and taking trades um but again those
trying to do that it's been pretty far and few between.
It's not, from what I see, a crazy momentum market that you're getting paid to look for
technical breakout areas that reward you. It's more like very surgical. But usually those type
of TBA momentum type of moves only happen three times a year in the market.
And you have to make sure you're involved for those three times.
And you're there when things are above the eighth day and things are making higher lows and higher highs.
And things are, you know, just show momentum.
And I don't see that right here.
I don't know.
Maybe Option Mike knows where that is right here or, you know, Logical's on here or Stock Trading.
Momentum?
Did you say momentum?
There's no momentum in this market.
Right.
Scott, I think you've nailed it here.
I mean, I'm finding a little trade every day.
Like today, I made a nice 45 cent trade on Tesla
and got out on that when it came off the lows
on some options, right?
Nothing huge, but made some money.
You know, that's all I'm trying to do.
Had a nice trade on Amazon last week. I'm holding two January contracts cause it's
acting better it is you know I'm sitting in two Nvidia calls not so happy I had a
nice trade on the video held two in January calls because it was acting
better than we got today's big gap down and I'm sitting in some mini ES future
contracts because I didn't want the big ones because I didn't want to take the risk.
But they're about flat.
They were up nicely, then they're back down a bit.
But overall, I think the market wants to try to go up into the end of the year.
Right.
It's what it wants to do.
Yeah, like you really put in perspective, like despising the queues, all they did is come back to the eight-day, eight-day moving average holding.
That means a strong market.
It doesn't mean momentum.
It just means it means a strong market it doesn't mean momentum it just means it's a strong market every time you think there's gonna be momentum it's been more of a tease versus like
real momentum we're like wow that was awesome like if tesla went to 510 that would have been
awesome and had a stole at 498 and get back below 495 to turn into just another trade you know
there's just there hasn't been that trade like ifSTS would have held up after the, you know, the launch and stayed there and went back through 100, it would have felt awesome.
Instead, it was just a trade.
But again, we're just the jockeys.
We have to be on the horses and we have to ride them based on the, you know, how they're running.
And right now, you can't complain with the action, but it's just, you know, there's nothing so exciting.
Yeah, I think that's a great way of putting it.
You know, it's just you look for something.
You know, for me, I just this time of year, I've learned over the years, I look for a trade or two to make some money, leave a little risk on in case we get a nice big gap up overnight.
Right.
Today was that weird morning.
I don't know if you caught.
It was all these social media rumors that a bank, a big bank had blown up
and the Fed was injecting emergency money in.
And I'm looking at this going,
of course, there's a silver trade.
I'm like, no big bank's going to be caught
in the silver trade the wrong way,
where they're shorting it.
They just don't short gold and silver, right?
You know, they may hedge,
but they don't short it.
And I'm like, when they said UBS-
By the way, silver is a tiny market.
It's not like gold. It's gold. the way, silver is a tiny market. It's not like gold.
Silver is tiny.
No bank is blown up being short silver. Two brothers
cornered the entire market
way back when. The Hunt brothers.
Honestly, I need to get that tweet out again.
Thanks for the reminder.
One thing that was going around,
the market cap posts of silver
getting over NVIDIA and market cap,
I think it was getting people to maybe feel a different way that this is a big deal.
Maybe big deal is the wrong word, but it is actually systemically impactful.
Maybe there's another way to say it?
Yeah, systemically.
Okay, that was my theory, right?
You know, if you look at, it was 81.
You know, look where gold is or look where even
you know the digital market is like silver um played some catch up and like I remember a few
weeks ago people like red dog silver is parabolic I'm like no it's not I'm like it's just in a very
strong trend it hasn't started like I've I remember where I think we went over the chart
you know when it went from like 40 to 49 in like two days. That was parabolic, and that was at a different time.
That was the last time.
You know, this was a strong move up until it did get a little.
You know, finally Friday, they caught any shorts off sides, and it really had to move, you know.
But it wasn't parabolic yet.
But I guess, you know, again, it's holiday time.
People want to create narratives.
You could write anything on social media.
But it's almost like the XLE.
Can the XLE do something systemic out there?
It's like 2.5% of the S&P.
Of course not.
I was looking at this year, and I just did my webinar for my members, Scott,
in 2026 when I'm thinking here.
I think you and I are similar. I think the market's ready to run out of the gate just because it's
consolidating now for the last couple months right it's been a nice sideways channel just
starting to break out but you know energy is the one thing i can't wrap my head around this year
and i'll be the first to tell you like i i don't you know i don't know what the hell if if this
whole ukraine peace deal and russia comes back on, I mean, that can't be good for energy names, oil.
Yeah, I don't know either.
I stare at that five-year chart, the 10-year chart,
and I'm like, it's the biggest consolidation it's had.
And, you know, we all know the bigger the base, the larger the space.
And, you know, I'm trying to think about what could the narrative be.
Like, why would energy all of a sudden, you know, have a sustained move?
I know XOM has been acting better and the XLEs still – I've tried it a lot of times. the narrative be like why would energy all of a sudden you know have a sustained move i know xom's
been acting better and the xle still i i've tried it a lot of times the only time also with xle every
single time i've bought verse support i can make a little bit of money but anytime it looks good
you have to sell it because it fails i guess one of these times it might get better in 2026 i know
a bunch of smart guys are telling me like this is this is the year of energy and cannabis you
know and um while we talk about that so i'll mention one more time this msos like i we caught
a pretty good trade in msos from from like four and a half i got rid of most at six and a half
from smart guys that i talked to in cannabis and i'm not gonna you know make like i'm so plugged
in but i have a few friends that have been in the sector like real friends not likely you know, make it like I'm so plugged in, but I have a few friends that have been in the sector, like real friends, not like, you know, like an investor, like, like funds that have made big
bets in this sector that got very smart here. They've been dead wrong for five years. They say
that this is the best setup they've seen in 37 years, that this, that the news that came out
already is not the news. Like people are selling this news as if it's the news. And he thinks there's
three or four more things coming. So I'll say it one more time because I just hate throwing bad money after
good money or whatever that's called. I bought a lot of $6 and $7 calls for February and March in
the MSOS that if they do come back and they talk more about banking and they talk about listing
some of these names on exchanges, which I think they might do.
I think MSOS that everyone is like, it's over.
I'm never touching this again.
Could have a much better move.
If you don't want to be in the ETF itself, you know, the $6, $7 calls like 30 cents.
I've been buying them for the past few days.
I bought more today.
I'm not buying any more.
I'm full.
If it happens, there'll be big money there. If it doesn't happen, I'll probably never play it ever again in my life.
That's a tough one, listening to the guys who've been dead wrong for five years. That's a
faith call right there, Scott. I'm just putting it out there. I know I put it out in June when Mike Tyson and Kevin Durant and all those guys were pressuring Trump to declassify it.
And then, you know, there was two good trades there.
One on that news and when it finally kind of happened, you know, a few weeks ago.
But from the individuals who actually talked to people in Washington, they say that, you know, that wasn't it.
That was just a start,
that they're going to really create safe banking. They're going to do something with taxes. Like,
I don't, I'm not going to have to think I'm so smart here, except for I bought it well,
I sold it well. So I bought my last portion today. It's on the dead lows. It looks like horrendous. It's at 446. And I'm just going to be in the six and $7 calls for,
for February and March. And, and if for some reason, you know, whatever comes out that's a little bit more exciting and real, maybe it'll work.
And then if not, at least, you know, risk is premium paid and you move on.
I've been, you know, pretty accurate here on a lot of like narrative type things and technical type things.
This is more of like, you know, I guess it's a little bit
of a lotto ticket, but I think it's worth a try. For anyone who has been trying this and like,
I'm never going to do this again, just do one more. Go out to March and buy the $7 calls and
forget you own them. And if the legislature kicks in and all of a sudden you're in and it has a nice
gap and go and get a stain, you could probably make some good money.
Yeah, you know, I listened to a very well-known perma bowl in pot do a presentation in 2018 about how it was going to create generational.
2018, seven years ago?
Yeah, it was at Stocktoberfest in Coronado.
And talking about generational wealth creation, blah, blah, blah.
He's been dead wrong.
And I don't trust any of those guys.
But what I do trust are the technicals. And I was on the morning show with JC back in June when we had that double bottom in MSOS and kind of popped off that.
And that's when I said,
okay, maybe the risk reward is worth it here. So I got a little more active then. Unfortunately,
I also had a lot of names in the drawer that I'd bought previous. So I feel like the pot story,
like I would encourage people to not listen to anybody anymore, but just to look at the technicals.
And I think as long as we stay above that little pivot that we just had last
week, which is like in the four 30 area,
I think we're probably still in play.
We get below there.
I'd be a little bit more nervous.
I agree.
I listen.
I, I, I thank goodness use technicals also.
I don't, you know, i don't catch a falling knife
and i don't accumulate i don't play that game a lot of people who did in 2018 i remember
when you know who was on tv when you know cgc was like 58 and said it was going 100 it's better
than berkshire hathaway and i never saw another update um but you know uh so technicals have
saved my my my tush many a times.
That's why with this MSOS, I'm going to just buy, you know, the calls, 30 cents.
That's it.
I have some MSOS on all, so I started buying around 505.
Yeah, I know what pivot you're talking about.
If it breaks below that, 428, I'll probably just get out of the ETF itself, use a stop,
and I'll just stay in the options.
And the options are either going to work or be a zero.
I'm not going to spread out.
And I'm not even going to focus on it or think about it. I'm going to trade everything else, but it's just something, it's a narrative.
Sometimes if you have a narrative and you kind of say, okay, you know, let me try this
in time, at least you do with options.
So you're not like getting bored and just buying more and buying more and buying more
than all of a sudden you're really getting your, you know, you're getting beat up, you
know?
So I know what, I know what the risk will be there.
So that's what I'm just, that's just what I'm going to do.
And it's not going to be a focus. a focus after today and not button unless it ignites
like it did that other day and then holds and goes because that was a nice trade too when it
went through 505 you held there you know held all like that whole morning then went to like six and
change and then gave you a few good days of trading you know unless we see that like there's
an anticipation trade and then there's a turn on trade.
By the way, I do think Chinese names are trading a little better.
I bought Baidu last week and I was like, oh, God, they're going to get me again.
And Baidu all of a sudden went from red to green.
It looks pretty good.
And I'm also building a little bit of a position in XPEV, XPEV.
I started buying it a week or so ago.
It pulled in from like 27, 28.
Morgan Stanley came out on it this morning.
No one really talked about it.
The names are lower.
So I think, you know, Chinese names are acting a little bit better and they tend to do okay.
In January, I also, on Friday, I bought NIO for the first time in a long time,
but I don't think it's going to like run away, but it's up 4%,
so that helped today.
If you want to see like what could ignite a move or what it looks, look at the chart of NIO and look what it did on Friday.
I call that a day one.
That tells me, hey, there's some volume there.
It woke up a little bit.
It's worth a try.
When I see a move like that, I'd rather see a move like that than hear from somebody that legislation is going to go through, that Trump is going to back this or that.
So NIO itself, you look at that chart, which has been a disaster. First time I bought NIO, literally,
I don't even know when, in like a year, because of the candle that came up on Friday,
little volume, it took out a prior range. So day one went to day two. So if you want a little bit
of a bar-by-bar analysis chart lesson, on you know, on Friday, that gave you a little bit of
a green light to buy some. And, you know, now you had a little bit of follow-through, you trim some,
and then you hold some. You know, that kind of stuff. Sometimes people are like, oh, how do you
get back in a name? Do you have a bid in? What do you look for? Well, that was something. And then
you look at Baidu, look at the chart of Baidu, you know, it had a nice inside range going sideways.
And then today, it opened lower, then reclaimed the five-day range, and now it's above the five-day range.
So that tells you, hey, wow, they bought the dip, and there's a little bit of power.
So I have Baidu options.
I'm in NIO stock, and I added to XPEV stock today.
Those are my three Chinese names for now, and I hate Chinese names.
I don't hate them.
They're just tricky at times.
You can't hate stocks. It just means you don't hate them. They're just tricky at times. Can't hate stocks.
It just means you didn't plan well.
We're stuck.
My problem with China names, Scott, is you never know when the government's just going to do something.
Yeah.
And they gap all over the place.
That makes it just very difficult.
But do you see what I'm talking about?
Look at the chart of NIO.
Do you see what I saw?
I see what you're saying.
I see them pushing up a little bit here and there.
They're looking better.
Then I see BABA, which was looking better,
and it gapped down horribly today.
Yeah, I get it.
I thought Baidu was going to do the same thing,
and Baidu came back, and Baba didn't.
Why is that?
I hear you.
There's not a lot of continuity.
I don't like trading Chinese names unless you're in a perfect little spot.
I'm not saying this is a perfect little spot at all it just is a spot that you know was worth
trying you know um and and i thought i would i get it i i get what you're saying i just i just yeah
i i don't know i find that sector i find that sector to be tough and it's tough to trade
intraday for a day trader because the movement tends to be overnight on that sector.
Kind of like trading commodities.
Yeah, I get it.
But then on my bread and butter, there's bread and butter, and then there's a little dipping sauce.
Sometimes it looks good for a little dipping sauce.
Anyway, NIO was decent, and then Baidu came in decent.
And then, yeah, so again, I'm looking at things to do. also um one last thing because I have to do my recap at 3 30 my son's got a basketball game
at 5 30 um you know Chipotle I I still think that this could have you that could be a decent
January effect type play here we did I think we spoke about this way back when in November
you know November 24th it had its move, and it's been trending since.
It's a little bit lower today.
I would watch that if it pulls in a little bit more.
Go out and buy the $38, $39 calls,
maybe for January 16th or after that.
I think there could be a little bit more,
unless that was it.
I'm still in that.
Also, Kava in that same space.
It's pretty interesting.
Yeah, Kava actually did better.
Kava, I think, is more of the gender.
Actually, he just had a bottom tail, too.
Same kind of thing.
I actually think the Pulte is going to be one of the outperformed names this year.
I think they're starting to get their act back together again.
I think they're going to outperform the Marcus.
Okay, so then you should definitely be looking at that, too.
And Bros in that space too that looks
nice too bros bros before what i mean bros bros yeah bros and scott i disagree with you i think
you can hate a stock i have some stocks that i hate that just they go on my no trade list i
for some reason i'm never in sync with certain stocks. Win is one of them. Ice is another.
I get it, but to be honest, that's a little bit in your head.
I've been there before, too.
Of course.
So if you think like that, you're never going to be in sync or in rhythm with the name,
so you have to just put it in the penalty box.
But if you readjust and look at the chart and say, hey, would I do that again at a different time?
And you say yes, then you have to do it again at a different time and you say yes then you have to do it again a different time just maybe wasn't ready like the other
the other day I said the same thing with FSLR you know I traded that breakout
on whatever that was I was on December 22nd I'm like I hate solar names they
always get me and I'm like you know I had an open house there was not many
trades out there I bought FSLR it was a great day trade. I was feeling good.
I'm like, it was a new trade.
Everyone was following me.
And the next day, they gave it all back.
And I said the same thing.
I hate this frigging stock.
And I don't like to say I hate stocks.
Right?
Look at that day, the day after.
Look at 1223 after 1222.
That just, that just, it's not fun.
You know, there are some groups that definitely do that a lot more than other groups.
So I get it. You're right. You know, as I know you have a cutoff coming up here, I want to maybe
ask a little bit of like a finalist question here. And sometimes we talk about how we don't
love these questions of like, oh, what's your 2026 target? I definitely don't want to do that.
Well, what I want to ask you is going into January and the first part of the year, what
sectors are you keeping an eye on?
I know you kind of mentioned some of them there, the Chipotles, the different areas,
January effect, maybe some of these tax loss harvesting type of names.
But what are you watching for as we head into the first part of this year?
I know this year also, like 2025, we talked a lot about seasonality and how it wasn't working so maybe we're looking for something there as we get into the first part of
of the year i'm curious of what your like new year checklist looks like if there's anything
like that of stuff that you go through um and then kind of stuff you're keeping your eye on
for that yeah no listen there's thoughts there's thoughts that i've that i've you know that i've
had from the years that I have developed.
They say into the year end, now strong stocks get stronger because people don't want to take profits on them.
But then they say the strongest names that are at highs typically could be prone to a sell-off because finally,
hey, if you could sell a stock that is on the highs in
the first few days of January, now you're paying taxes in 2027 versus April. But then some people
will try and be cute and short those names and then new funds come in and push them for a few
more weeks. So sometimes they go to like the third, fourth week of January before they go
through a corrective phase. So there's like a lot of little things that happen that you have to think about. Then again, like I think sometimes,
you know, you're like, all right, I'm going to play a January effect on a crappy name that's
been just thrown out because people don't care about it. But then sometimes it's crappy for a
reason. So you play a Chipotle or a Cava or Nike or one of these things. And then all of a sudden
they just resume their downtrends and they never have that January effect lift.
So from what I've learned is you can't just expect things to happen
at a certain point of a new year, but you could have multiple plans
to see if it looks that way.
So I'm in some January calls for Apple and Amazon feeling like no one's taking,
no one's like doing tax- tax lost harvesting in Amazon and Apple, but they've also haven't been so crazy where people are waiting and jumping out of their skins to take a profit on them because they'll pay taxes later.
So I think those two names are kind of in the game.
You know, then you want to see like Tesla, if you thought you were going to miss a move through 500, now you have it at 462 and change. Like maybe now you nibble a little bit for the third week of January just to have to get engaged for some options higher.
So just in case it wakes up fast and you miss that first day.
But again, I like to, when I'm trying to think about things potentially happen, I use options because at least I know what I'm risking versus then I wait for the market to show me what's kind of happening. So then I go from options only into options in stock
because, you know, maybe now it looks like what I was expecting to happen. Um, but you're going to
hear a lot of things like, so goes January, so goes the year, so goes the first five days, so
goes January. And then, so, you know, a lot of these things are, they're just historically, there's reasons why people say them, but they, they, they like, just like sell them in go away.
I don't remember the last time that happened. Um, but, um, I, you know, again, I think the most,
the most important thing is know your timeframe, you know, like you're going to get new mutual
funds, pension plans on 401ks. There's going to be new flows that come in because
it happens. There's a lot of people employed. There's a lot of flows that, you know, I have a
401k also. Like it goes in every month. I don't care about it. There are flows there. So there's
a way to mechanically think about that for trading. But, you know, I would say no matter what,
if you're in your thirties and you think, Hey, you know, we've been up for three years,
we can't be up for a fourth. It doesn't put your monthly flows in it'll help your average cost if we go down for two years it doesn't
matter it'll help your average cost if you have a child start your 529 at one i started chase at
five and i'm a little bit behind so sacrifice a little bit you know so long term long term you
never need to time anything if you're doing etf, especially if you're in your 20s and your 30s. Just start, engage.
But if you trade for a living again, you can't think that every type of cycle is going to be the same
and that just because something happened last year, it's going to happen this year,
just because it usually happens a certain way.
You know, the machines are getting really good.
They're getting really good at trying to make people feel bad about themselves.
So if you want to start the year kind of fresh in January and you want to have risk down,
I mean, a lot of cash and day trade a little bit until you see some new trends show their face
and you see really some things stand out, then I would say do that.
If you feel like you might miss out a few things because they're going to come in and new flows are going to come in,
we're going to gap up 60 handles and you don't want to miss it. You know, then do it with some options.
So at least if it doesn't happen, I know I've tried to time the first day of the year a few times and it's gone the opposite.
And then I started in a hole in January and I'm digging myself out.
So just know, you know, what are you looking for?
Are you looking to make money in January?
Did you have a fantastic year in 2025 where you're like, you know,
trying to just bust out? Well, then don't bust out.
Do what you did in 2025 because if you're looking to bust out,
chances are it's not going to be the same action and you're going to probably have to learn a lesson or two. So I would say the most,
the best thing to think about and realize is how approaching 2026 with what
timeframes and what allocations if
you're work somewhere make sure you know you've maxed out your 401k especially if they have it
if you have children make sure to start your 529 if you trade for a living just make sure you want
to start on a good on a on the right foot without um putting yourself back and getting on a back
foot because it kind of sucks to start off on a back foot.
And there's no reason that you have to.
But if you've been trading for 10, 15 years
and you're in positions,
then you know how to handle
if you happen to be a little wrong
and you don't want to sell something
that you're engaged with.
And then we'll see some trends develop
and we'll see like right now XLE is up 1.1%.
Everyone's like, is this the start of the XLE outperformance? We got to buy the $46 calls for the third week of January. I'm like, I'd rather see you buy the $46 calls in the third week of January than buying the XLE today because, you know, the Ukrainian war wasn't solved and oil's up today. It could be just another bounce to be sold and then you'll be caught in the XLE.
be just another bounce to be sold and then you'll be caught in the xle so i just babbled again um
but this is this is the way the market is you know a lot of people are upset about crypto
doesn't mean you know it it could change real quick crypto could ignite and get better and
you know this you know maybe they're i don't think there's tax law selling crypto people who
were you know in the long term or in the long term people who trade it for momentum like i do there's been none um you know granted there's been
a lot of money mating in bitcoin and ethereum i don't think you know people are down a lot maybe
you got some paper cuts in october november but you know it's not like bitcoin is at 70 000 you're
talking bitcoin's still trading around what 86, 86,000, 87,000?
So just keep your head above water and make sure you're mentally strong so when things happen,
you could see it clearly and you could execute based on all your timeframes. That's the major.
There's no one way to do it. There's lots of ways to do it. And when they all combine,
that's when it's really special. Like the metals had a special year. Asset allocators made a ton of money. And if you wanted to use momentum rules to trade assets to silver and gold to make money monthly and quarterly,
there were a ton of setups. It wasn't that way in a lot of other sectors. So we got to look for
the sector that's going to be in 2026 that's special, that rewards investors and rewards traders. It's awesome when that happens. And right now we don't know what that's going to be in 2026 that's special, that rewards investors and rewards
traders. It's awesome when that happens. And right now we don't know what that's going to be yet for
2026. Right now they think it's going to be the year of space because SpaceX doesn't come public.
The year of the drones, because usually it's kind of the secondary group and, you know, there's a
lot of high technology, new drones, robotics, but, you know, these a lot of high technology new drones and robotics but you know these these
names are not doing anything right now right um joeby's just in a base rdw is kind of just
hanging around achr is hanging around umac is hanging around so it's again um have your list
you know shy literally has a list of you know, the top three, four stocks in every sector.
What I would suggest is chart each one and create an A, B, and C list.
And when they're acting the best, move them up the list, and that's what you're trading.
When they don't, just watch them and keep an eye on them so when they get better, you're ready to go.
That was awesome, Scott.
We appreciate it.
I know you said you have a hard cutoff coming up here.
I do just want to say, we are lucky to be having Scott on the show,
Chief Strategist over at T3 Live.
He is a veteran in the industry.
You've seen him on Fox Business, CNBC, Bloomberg, all that stuff.
We are lucky to have you join us here, Scott.
If you guys are not following Scott, you are missing out.
He's putting out his own piece of content every single morning, 6.30
a.m. Eastern. Get up with him
if you guys are up in that area. Start your day off
with a routine. But definitely check out
Scott and all the stuff that he's doing. We appreciate
you for joining us here.
Scott, wishing you and your family a happy,
healthy, prosperous new year.
I appreciate you and
thanks for having me on.
I like being around with younger kids and those who are in their 20s and 30s. There's really not that many around that are in their 50s like us. But it's good to be able to help with people's learning curves. I've been through so many cycles between the NASDAQ bubble bursting, the financial crisis, the pandemic. I've seen all the cycles. So if I could help in any way, you know, to keep people
safe, keep people profitable, keep people on course. Well, that's what I meant to, that's
what I'm here to do. And as far as my routine and process, I'm up every day at 445. I do the 2520
with a few hundred people in the sauna. It's a 20 minute workout. It's a lot of fun. And if you
want to watch for free on Twitter, 630 club is for free. I'm usually feeling my best. Just got out of
the sauna, just got out of the ice barrel. And, you know,. I'm usually feeling my best. Just got out of the sauna, just got out
of the ice barrel. And then I'm finally sitting in front of the computer with the X's and O's
trying to explain the keys to the day, where we can go, where we can make some money,
but everyone's hyper-focusing on it. And then you could just go about your day or you could
join us on the Alpha Team where you can see positions live all day. I'm on the radio all
day. I'm doing very similar things,
but it's for the longevity of the day
versus just 20 minutes.
But whatever it is you guys want to do,
I will say just use your resources.
You know, just use your resources.
And if you're not performing, figure out why.
You know, maybe you're listening to the wrong people.
Maybe your TV's too loud.
You know, if you're on spaces every day,
they have awesome experts, you know, or just guys
that have been around for a long time that have been, you know, been here, said that,
done that.
Like I was on, like you said, like real quick, I was, you know, I was on CBC a hundred times,
Fox Business, you know, 50 times, Bloomberg.
Like now it's, you can't go on CNBC because you're not allowed to say anything that you
would be saying on CNBC prior.
So that means I wouldn't be able to write my note,
I wouldn't be able to do the 6.30 Club,
and I wouldn't be able to do my morning call.
So guess what I told CNBC?
I'm like, you can stick with the guys that play traders on TV
because I have my own services I want to run.
I don't need to say it for the first time in a soundbite on CNBC or on a network.
So anyway, those guys, it's good to get on there and get seen
and get what they think,
whatever they think is credibility.
If you see someone there on every single day,
how much time is he spending at his desk?
Just saying.
It takes four hours to go put on a 15-minute segment somewhere.
So anyway, with that being said,
I trust more of these guys on Spaces
that are at their desks that are talking
and that are trading, that are doing their thing,
that are involved in the markets for are talking and that are trading, that are doing their thing that are, you know,
involved in the markets for a real level. With that said, I got to jump.
I appreciate you guys.
I got to do my recap and I have to get over to the holiday tournament.
Shout out Scott. Have a happy and healthy new year.
Hope your son wins the tournament here. I'm expecting a triple double.
There we go. All right.
We got about 20 minutes until the market
closed here that was an awesome conversation like i said these mondays scott joining in for
the first hours always fantastic we appreciate him for for being here um yeah let's uh let's
let's funnel back around some of the guys that we've had already up here and then we'll hit
stock talk for a bunch of the second hour stock Talk unless you have anything you want to get in
before the close.
No, I haven't done shit in the last week.
I'm sure most people probably haven't,
but yeah, I've just been out with friends
and family and stuff.
Choppy day these last couple sessions,
but no, I haven't made any new moves that I need
to inform people about or anything, so
no, you're good.
Appreciate you as always.
Hope everyone, by the way, has enjoyed their holidays,
was able to recharge, all that good stuff.
If you're with your family, fantastic.
Not so hope you guys had a great time.
Let's throw it over to Mr. Brian Lund.
So let's get Mr. Brian Lund's thoughts on this conversation.
Obviously, we had Scott on there.
We're 40 minutes into it.
But I'm just curious on what's standing out to you today in this market this week.
Obviously, as Stock Talk was saying there, it's choppy.
I haven't really looked at the volume, but I'm sure it's low.
Probably should be on vacation right now, but here we are talking.
How are we feeling?
What is catching your eye on this market?
What are you preparing for next year?
You're in Florida. You're not on vacation you know i never uh go on vacation i haven't had a true my vacations just turned into me working from that vacation spot
i hear you so a couple things look i think scott pretty much scott and mike have
nailed it uh pretty much but i'll add a little bit of extra
color. The first thing is, you know, I don't really think today and Friday's action is anything
unusual because the five trading days before that, we just went straight up. I mean, people forget
that we had that low, that ugly day on Wednesday, the 17th, where it looked like we were rolling
over and everyone was free. I mean, on these spaces here, people were freaking out. And then we just went straight up for five days,
which is great, but we're digesting now. And digesting is super boring, but it's healthy.
And if we can just stay around this level, certainly above the AEMA, maybe one more day, maybe tomorrow. I think that sets the stage for us to
attack those highs on Wednesday, Friday, and Monday, which would correspond with the end of
the Santa Claus rally. So I think that's healthy. I think a lot of people right now are pushing it.
They're trying to force trades in a choppy, untrending market. It's a bad
thing to do. It's not an amateur thing to do, but you get frustrated because this has been such a
fantastic year for so many people. And the market has been so forgiving. And when you get a market
like this, you think, oh, it's going to wake up at any time, just like it always has.
But there's so many end-of-year mechanics going on right now.
There are so many traders, so many investors, so many hedge funds, so many institutional people that are doing little fine-tuning things at the end of the year that it's just not a great environment to be too active.
So I would just look for maybe one more consolidation day tomorrow.
And if we get that, like if we get a little bit of a, you know,
a little bit of what I call a ramp towards the end of the day tomorrow,
I think that would be a spot to maybe get involved in some names
and then we could see something run into the end of the week
or the beginning of next week. The last thing I'll say is about when it comes to next year, people
predicting what sectors are going to be hot. I think that's a bad idea. What happens when you
get into the prediction game is not only can you be wrong about what you're predicting,
but because you're so focused on what you think is going to happen, you often forget or you often
are blinded to what is happening. And the most famous example of this was at the end of the bear market in 2022
or 2023, I always forget which one it was, I guess it was 2023. Nobody was looking at housing stocks.
If you remember, we had high inflation rates, mortgage rates were going
through the roof. Nobody thought that housing was going to rocket and that's all it did for
a year straight. Everyone had predictions of what would happen and that blinded them to what did
happen. So I would just not be in a hurry to jump on the first thing that moves in the first two weeks of January. I would
wait till you see sectors and names in sectors getting stronger. The theme for next year will
surface itself. You've got 12 months to ride next year's sector themes, thematic trades.
You don't have to get on them in the first month. And if you're trying to jump on them and trying to
predict them, you might be wrong and you might end up losing money and you might not be paying attention to where they really are.
So I would just say right now is the time to just kind of sit back, chill a little bit, and just wait for the market to tell you when it's time to get involved.
Be patient. Don't force it.
How do you normally operate in a low volume environment? Do you take a step back? Is that maybe when your prime strategy comes in? Yeah. Yeah. So a hundred
percent. There is this myth that you're a trader, so you got to trade. I never have understood that.
Well, if I'm a trader and
I'm in front of my computer, I got to find something. There's always something. I say
trade less, make more. I would rather take three trades and hit them out of the park than try to
get 10 trades and miss on some and win on some, especially if you want to balance your life out with the market. So,
you know, I've been talking about this since October, starting in end of October,
I was raising cash. I was paying myself because it's been a fantastic year. And I specifically
dialed it down going into the holidays because I wanted to be less active. I wanted to spend more
time with my, you just talked about family and friends. I wanted to be spending time during the holidays with my family and friends.
And I just didn't want to push it.
I know people, unfortunately, who in the last two months blew their whole year because they
pushed it and they pushed it and they pushed it.
They couldn't just chill out and say, let's wait for fatter pitches.
Let's wait till the edge is in our favor.
Let's wait until we're in a more risk on environment. I think that's just something you learn with maturity. I spent 20 years doing the
opposite of that, and I've been doing this for 40. So it's only really on the second half of my
career that I've learned to kind of chill out. And really only this year and last year have I really
got into that mode where sometimes during summer, I've always
threatened that I'm going to take the summer off every year and I don't. And that's oftentimes a
choppy market. Now this year it wasn't, but yeah, I'm really into seasonality, not in the sense of
like the trader's almanac and that, but like a season for when the market is in risk on,
a season for when the market's in risk on. a season for when the market's in risk on,
and when you are trued up to those things. If you've got lots going on in your life,
if you've got other things pulling you away from the market, if you've got stress or traumas,
if you're not healthy and you're trying to push it in times when the market is seasonally
not in the right spot, it's just a recipe for disaster. So I think patience is a highly underrated virtue.
I don't know if Mike would agree with me.
He's been around a long time.
But I think it's something that a lot of people need to work on.
Patience, dude.
Patience, patience, patience.
I'm with you.
I can go through my trade logs in the last week and a half.
And it's last week.
And it's been – I'm not trading much.
And it's because there's just nothing out there that is saying, screaming, you know, trade me.
Do this.
You know, there's no momentum.
I'm a momentum junk, right?
Know who you are.
And so, you know, when I look at last week, on Monday, I traded Palantir calls.
I traded some Tesla calls.
That was it. Tuesday, I traded Amazonantir calls. I traded some Tesla calls. That was it.
Tuesday, I traded Amazon stocking calls, still holding two of them.
On Wednesday, I bought some mini ES contracts.
And on Friday, I bought some NVIDIA contracts, traded from 10 down to 2.
Today, one trade, Tesla.
The January 9th we already called, and I got out completely.
I am just trying to put a little bit of cash in my pocket during the holidays and wait until this market picks a direction.
Cash is a position, 1,000%.
Some good points there, Mike.
Is there anything else you want to add in on any of the topics that kind of Brian was bringing up there?
And then just in general, what you're seeing in this market, if you had anything to add in on any of the topics that kind of Brian was bringing up there and then just in general what you're seeing in this market if you had anything to add in I you know I think this
market's going to go higher I think it's just this this week and the next week and a half these two
weeks are always a more difficult time in the markets and you know now with AI driving these
algos it's even more difficult and that's what you're trading against you're trading his computers
they're just trying to fake you out.
So if you're an investor,
there's nothing to see here.
If you're trying to day trade,
dial it back.
And that's my message.
Is there some quick and concise points there for Mr.
Options Mike?
What are you watching as you head into next year?
There's just some good,
good thoughts there.
I'm sure the volume,
even this,
the rest of this week,
like Fridays,
January 2nd,
the first of the year, my guess is the volume the the momentum probably won't be there probably take an extra week or two for people to end up coming back so what does the
general sort of the year look like for you yeah i mean i i personally think this market's been
digesting for two months and we're getting ready to break out and the breakout's going to be you
know there's so many people out there bearish saying everybody's going to going to sell you
know they don't want to take profits this year they're going to take to be, you know, so many people out there bearish saying everybody's going to sell. You know, they don't want to take profits this year.
They're going to take profits next year.
You know, as soon as the year starts, I think you've seen a ton of profit taking, especially in big cap tech and these, you know, mag seven names.
I think this market's ready to run in the beginning of the year.
I think next year is going to be another up year in the markets for what it's worth.
I think it'll be more volatile.
I think it's going to be another up year.
You know, I think 78 percent is probably where I'm penning at. what it's worth i think it'll be more volatile i think it's gonna be another up year um you know
i i think 78 is probably where i'm penning at but you know it you know it's just it's guess based
that you know i don't think we're gonna get another 20 up year you know again uh three years in a row
or so but ultimately i think this mark is strong and i think it's always hard when the market's at
all-time highs to pick names that are outperforms so you kind of had to really do my homework this year when I did my webinar for my members.
And I think I had 26 names on there that I thought could outperform the market.
So, you know, as I kind of said, Chipotle is one of them.
I really kind of like Chipotle here and looking to buy that one.
And I do think the theme, you know, it's just focusing on the themes.
You know, what's the theme of the market going to be?
And, you know, that's where you have to wrap your head around here.
Yep. Those are some good points there it's funny i see this tweet in front of me intel stock is now 82 this year the government now owns 10 nvidia now owns 4 soft
bacon now owns 2 what the year for intel on that one i'm sorry for the adhd squirrel brand there
but i just saw it in front of me it was was like, okay, wow. Intel has had quite the year.
But yeah,
Mike, those are some good points there.
Intel wasn't one of the names on the list,
was it? I saw people talk about Micron today as
one that they're excited about, which obviously
is the type of name. I think Micron's run too far
and I can't touch it up here from an investment
standpoint. My personal name. Type a name in history
when it looks great is when
maybe you want to go away from it. When it doesn't as good as has been the good moments but past is not equal to
future i see monitor down below i have a selfish reason i want you up here i'm going to ces and i
want your advice on what i should hit but maybe we could do that off camera shout out options mike
though i did just see him drop off there i see options mike and brian lund down in the crowd i
don't know if it's just showing you guys as listeners
if you want to come up, but all good.
I appreciate you all.
Like I was saying earlier with Scott,
we really are lucky to have a great crew on here,
and we appreciate them for supporting
and making the content so great.
So when they say something you enjoy, smart.
Spaces is a great way to find new people to follow.
Obviously, you can unfollow later.
It's easy. It's free. can unfollow later it's easy it's
free that unfollow button is super easy to click but this is a great way to to find new people to
add to your timeline uh stock sniper do we have you oh we got a monotiv up here as well
but uh i'll go over to you sniper if we have you
stock sniper all right interesting times what's up monaziv how you doing sir
good good good good it's been too long it's been way too long so are you still traveling
no no back home there we go okay uh i'm just curious like i could ask you prompt you have
some questions and go to ces for the first time so I need to know some of the stuff that I need to do.
And I imagine you're a CES expert.
Maybe I'm wrong.
I've not looked at CES for a decade and a half.
So I'm the wrong guy to ask.
That is fair.
It must be a lot bigger than it is now.
It was over like 15 hotels or something.
I was like, wow.
But what has been catching your eye recently?
In the months since you've gone and left,
I don't remember exactly when it was.
We had Google, which I know is a name that you watch.
A couple months ago, everyone thought they were dead from AI search.
And now we've done a whole 360
and Google's the darling,
Gemini, Waymo making some big advancements
in a couple other areas.
So Google has been one that the narrative
has shifted quite drastically.
It is now, honestly, on social media wise,
this is empirical.
But when I make a post about a stock,
Google might've been 10, 15, 20th most popular at the start of the year.
Now it's top five.
People are loving the Google on the social media.
Now, I don't know if that means that's the time I want to run into it.
But yeah, I'm curious your general landscape.
I also...
But also, yeah, we'll go there.
Yeah, we'll go there. I'll prompt you again.
I'll prompt you again.
No, you go. You go.
You go.
So look, I've been critical of Google management,
but I've also been very positive on how undervalued it was.
It is not undervalued anymore.
It's pretty well fully valued if a tiny bit rich,
at least for people like me.
But it's certainly not undervalued anymore.
I think there's a lot that Google can still do.
There's nothing that they've done on the cost side,
which has been a point that I've been bringing across for two years now.
They're still at all-time highs on employment.
They've been adding headcount like crazy.
So there's something that they can do on the cost side,
easily knock a few billions off there
without too much of change to their execution.
So I think that's one area where you will see Google Active next year
is start trimming around the edges to begin with.
And if things don't look great,
they'll probably start trimming around the edges to begin with. And if things don't look great, they'll probably start trimming faster.
They're also doing some other cost consolidation
real estate-wise.
They're getting rid of facilities
outside their core areas
and adding to facilities in campuses
that already exist for them around
the country. So there's a few things that Google is doing. You know, the finance side is going to
be pretty active next year, in my opinion. For me, the one problem I see with Google is they could
get tripped up with memory. You've already seen that story about people getting fired
because they did not have the right amount of capacity
lined up for delivering to Broadcom.
So I don't know.
I don't have access to the information
whether Broadcom is responsible for procuring memory for TPUs
or whether Google's got assigned that contract.
So if it is Google's responsibility,
we could very well see a situation
where they're not able to get enough TPUs
into the data center as much as they expected
and they could run out of capacity.
So that's one place where I do see a good possibility of them tripping up.
And certainly, you know, the cost equation is going to change.
It's going to change for everybody, but certainly given that TPU is competing on, you know,
a lower price model, it is going to be important to see how much the rent price increases hurt
that price differential that they claim. So those are two areas that worry me about where
Google is going. But on the flip side, I talked about this before. I'll leave out things that
people have already talked about, like search you know, search market shares, really not broken, things like that. I'll leave that out. But one-time profits, look, they have significantly undervalued stake in very large privately held companies that they will get to write up sometime next year.
I don't know whether that happens earlier in the year or later in the year.
But the last time they wrote up, they wrote up SpaceX in Q1.
And since then, SpaceX valuation has, you know, bowled up considerably.
Anthropic.
So they have just under 10% of SpaceX and just under 15 percent of
anthropic so you know you calculate the numbers this a bunch of others that they have by my back
of the envelope calculations they could see somewhere between 25 and 50 billion one time
you know profit from from mark to market on on these properties that they have or stakes that they have.
So that's the second part that's not much talked about for Google.
I think the third one is they are definitely gaining market share in cloud.
So cloud is now leading where they're going. So I think you could see some, they
might not be getting that from AWS or Azure, but certainly from smaller players. So these
three are becoming more and more critical. And also they have a lot of acquisitions
they've made that integrations should start
paying up a little bit.
So we'll see.
So those are things about Google.
What else?
I still like Cisco.
I think that story is far from done.
We did hit all-time high, and we promptly pulled back
a little bit. But I think that growth story is far from done. We did hit all-time high and we promptly pulled back a little bit,
but I think that growth story is far from done. I think you're going to see Cisco really
deliver in 2026 as long as the economy holds. So I still like that. I've talked about PATH.
I still like that. I talked about Zoom Info GTM. It's now GoToMarket is their ticker GTM. I still like
that as a turnaround. Really? Zoom Info changed their ticker? Wow, I did not know that. Okay.
It tells you how much it's followed, right? I was a financial advisor for a hot two weeks,
two weeks and we use the zoom info to scrape info off of linkedin so i can cold call lawyers
and we used Zoom Info to scrape info off of LinkedIn so that I could cold call lawyers.
yeah i think i think it's going to i think it's going to finally turn around so so i mean look
it's not going to double in a you know in a hot quarter but but it's it's going to be a steady
grow next year that's that's my take so i still like those um let's see um oracle right I've been
you know
I've talked about this enough
I still think there's a problem there
I don't think it's
it's a stock that's going to go to zero
so I'm not a
I'm not a shot at any cost
you know
out there for Oracle
but there is a trade
it's not going to break out of a range
if it gets anywhere close to all-time high,
it's a great shot. I'll take 25, 30 points off of it and sit back and let it play out again.
They have a serious problem with the balance sheet. And if they continue to do what they're
doing, it's just going to get worse. So that's Oracle. I still feel the same way about AMD.
going to get worse. So that's Oracle. I still feel the same way about AMD. You know, better
part of the best, you know, GPU cycle ever in history. And all they have to show for
is a 5-6% at best market share, maybe 7% market share. And what is going to suddenly change?
I mean, the expectation is for their P multiple to go from, you know, mid 70s to mid 30s.
That would imply, you know, a significant increase in margin and profit.
So it's already priced for that.
If you don't see any of those coming or if you don't see any of those perfect scenarios play out,
AMD is going to be expensive as shit.
And I think it is.
So I am negative.
I do not have a current shot position, but I'm again looking to get a shot position.
It's one of those, again, same.
I'll play it in the channel.
I'm not going to short it at any cost.
I don't expect it to, you know, have going concern issues or anything stupid like that.
I'll short it, you know, take $20, $25, walk away and be happy.
Same thing with Avago.
I think there's a little too much expected from that company.
little too much expected from that company. If memory is an issue and it's, if it's their
responsibility, they're screwed because, you know, they're going to have to take part of their,
you know, part of the hit from Google. I don't know what the contract is. If it's Google's
responsibility and they don't deliver the memory, you still have the same issue. They're not going
to output as much as expected. So I had a shot position on Avago.
I happily took what I got.
I'm out of it.
But again, if it runs up again, that's another shot I will happily take.
So there's a few like that.
So that's mostly the AI trade.
I still have a lot of work to do in defense.
Given that we had six weeks of shutdown,
I think there's going to be significant impact on defense.
They are probably going to miss the top end of the expectations
and they're probably going to guide week for the year.
But given that we have a very large budget submitted, it's going to be week for the year but given that we have a very large budget submitted
it's it's going to be fine for the whole year so you know it's a h2 story for me so i would rather
see them sell off on a on a bad quarter or a bad guide or both and start picking up you know defense
stocks there so that's that's defense um do you's defense. Do you have a part of defense that is more interesting for you?
So, so you have to start looking at a few things, right?
My expertise is not in small defense companies. I don't, you know, I,
I look to other people, you know, Mike and, you know,
we have a few others that, that, that I look up to, to, you know,
to give me ideas about smaller companies.
But for big companies, I see something that not too many people want to talk about,
which is basically we are destroying the foreign military sales and backlog
on a daily basis by the policies that we have.
If that's the case, then it's going to hurt a few companies far more than others. For example, Lockheed Martin is the most exposed, obviously, there. They have the largest component of foreign military sales.
45% of their business is commercial, so it's not easy to split that up.
But probably Boeing and Raytheon is the second most exposed
on foreign military sales, primarily because they're tied at the hip
with Lockheed on F-35s and a few other large programs.
So that could hurt them so if you if you just play out that scenario
i prefer northrop from the large uh primarily because most of the programs is one restricted
programs which rarely you know get taken out unless there's a you know there's a significant
uh you know change in uh you know what we want to do. So I think Northrop is in the best of spots right here.
I'm not buying it, but I'm waiting for, like I said,
a weak quarter and a weak guide to pick it up
maybe 15, 20% lower, I hope.
Boeing, I still like.
I think it's crossed that problem zone
and it's up to execution now.
They've started increasing production.
It's going to take a while to get up there.
But increasing production means increased cash flow,
which means they can put a real dent on the debt pile that they have.
So that's I'm positive about Boeing,
which basically also translates to very positive on GE.
But I can't touch GE at these valuations.
I just let it go.
I have a significant position in Saffron and Rolls-Royce, so I'll play it that way.
Got any thoughts on Huntington Ingalls or Ingalls or anything like that?
I'm not a fan of shippers, shipping companies.
not a fan of shippers. Shipping companies, they just, if you just dig into every program,
almost every program is way, way, way, way over budget, delayed by years and extremely prone to,
you know, fixes and changes and rebuilds and recalls and all kinds of stuff. I'm not a huge fan, but in that complex,
it's really only two players, right?
Huntington Ingalls and GD.
And they both had quite a run based on, you know,
this expected resurgence in shipbuilding in the US.
Personally, I think that resurgence is going to come
from other players entering,
you know, Hyundai Heavy, players like that, which will actually be able to bring in their
capabilities from outside. I don't think Huntington Ingalls is going to change colors,
you know, overnight. So they'll continue to be the only carrier builder and it's going to keep them busy
and they'll continue to be one of two submarine builders and that's going to keep them busy. So
I have no problems with Huntington, but I'm not a fan of that part of defense altogether. Navy
programs tend to be... I mean, we just recently had another big major program cancellation.
So this never ends.
It's not been a good few decades for the Navy as far as executing on the programs is concerned.
So not a fan.
So I will stay out of it.
But I think both Ingalls and GD are going to be fine in terms of the size of the programs.
And the flow through is probably more interesting.
So somebody like DRS, which does the electric drive for part of the submarine program, is to me more interesting than GD itself.
So I'm going to be spending some more time.
Like I said, most of these report before end of January.
So we should get very good info on how things stand in the defense field
and probably start picking up something late February after it plays out.
Other than that, so let's see, we sort of ended Q3 at just under 15% earnings growth and over 8% revenue growth.
We're setting up for just under 9% earnings growth and about 7% revenue growth for Q4.
I think we beat those numbers.
I don't think we've broken anything so badly
that those numbers are at risk.
But again, the risk is going to come from, you know,
companies that will be impacted by the shutdown,
though, you know, that can be talked away by,
you know, it's just a delay,
not really a huge complete loss of revenue
for all those companies.
So anyway, those are my quick thoughts.
I do need to do a lot more work before I can form real opinions
of where I want to go.
I'm keeping, I've not touched my Google stake.
I'm keeping it.
It's fine.
It'll be there for a while now.
I have no intention changing it.
I still have my Nvidia stake.
I have no problem with that either.
I'm just going to let it play.
I do have a weak position in UNH that's just barely profitable,
so I'm not sure what I want to do there.
That's not played out.
I took a loss and closed my ADP position.
That didn't play.
So there's a few things that I've adjusted.
I have a large cash position now to do what I need to do.
But like Stock Talk says, probably the first few weeks is just observing.
We're only now a little over three weeks from earnings.
So, you know, we're going to be deluged by data. So that's the time I need to spend, you know, trying to sort out where the, you know, where, if any, there's interesting places to, you know, put money in. Right now, those are my only ideas that I have. I don't have anything else.
So, you know, we're going to be deluged by data.
We did get the market closed there, by the way, while you were speaking.
Closed red.
It's not that big of a deal.
We're in an interesting time right now.
I did want to ask you, though, Motive, since it's been a little since we've had you on here,
I want to dig in deeper.
Is there any parts that...
I know we're talking parts that you do like.
Are there any parts of this market that you are maybe closer to shorting
or maybe not quite in that neutral area on,
but maybe you're a little bit less interested in, if there's it.
Do we have any in the bottom half of the category there?
Well, so if we start having problems with the AI trade for whatever reason,
whether it's lack of memory or memory is too expensive
or whatever else the reason is, there's a lot of
ancillary trades that have run up that are purely based on future flows, not valuations today.
So I think if you just at a generic level from a valuation perspective, there's a lot more to
short than long in the AI trade.
So that's just, just that is going to keep me busy. If we start seeing any signs of unraveling,
I could probably, you know, test waters there with, you know, 50 bunch of, just for the heck of it, a bunch of
utilities are selling at valuation multiples of tech companies. That makes no sense to me.
If things start unraveling, I'm more than happy to place bets there. Again, I don't have active shorts i'm i'm just thinking uh even within the the core ai theme
this there's companies that are so far out on on on on current multiple versus you know uh versus
what's expected pretty much anything that that that that you start questioning on their valuation makes them worth a fraction of what they are today.
So very simply, there's far more short opportunities in AI
than long at this point in time.
Yeah, yeah.
Those are some good points there, Mr. Monativ.
If you guys are not following Monativ,
you are completely missing out.
He is awesome. And we really do appreciate you for hanging out with us on these spaces. there mr monotiv if you guys are not following monotiv you are completely missing out uh he is
awesome and we really do appreciate you for hanging out with us on these spaces monotiv
you're an active trader as well i see you on uh the trading spaces during throughout the day um
what's the trading environment looking like for you right now you i mean you were on vacation so
i hope you were enjoying the vacation as opposed to being active, trading, doing all the stuff.
But yeah, I'm curious on what the trading environment is looking like for you right now.
Anything you were taking today?
I'm not an active trader.
I listen there mostly to learn, mostly to see what people are doing, to see if any of those trades that people talk about have, you know, legs longer than, you know,
minutes or hours, right? It takes me longer to decide what to do. By the time I think these
guys are, you know, in and out of the trade five times over. So that's, I cannot do that. It's just
beyond me. But it does give me some interesting ideas. I have a swing trade in Apple right now.
I think Apple goes to 285, 290, something like that in a month's time before they announce earnings is my guess.
So I have a swing trade there.
Let's see what else.
Which strike are you in?
In the money, 272s.
Interesting.
Yeah.
So again, right, if it was very high conviction,
I would be out of the money, but it's not very high conviction.
So it's in the money.
Let's see.
I added some more Cisco Februaries as a swing trade, trading around
my larger position. So that's again a Feb 80. So again, not too far out of money. So
that's one. That's it. Those are the only two swing trades I have. Oh, Netflix. So Netflix is an interesting trade for me. I think Netflix, you know, setting aside the noise of this deal, they do get a breakup fee if Oracle forces the WBD to change their mind.
So I'm more than glad to see that happen.
And I think if they do close, we're talking, you're 18 months away.
So I don't think the weakness right now is any function of whether the deal is going to close or not.
And most people are salty on the deal.
I'm not.
I think it'll be fine.
I think Netflix was sold off unfairly.
After the last earnings, I talked about it here.
I think that was a miss on part of the market.
But again, for me, that's an opportunity to pick it up.
I do have a swing trade for January and February.
I don't know.
99 strikes.
So those are the only swing trades I have at this moment.
Interesting.
Interesting, interesting. Mantev, it's been good to have you back on the show. I hope you enjoyed moment. Interesting. Interesting, interesting.
Monotiv, it's been good to have you back on the show.
I hope you enjoyed the time off,
but I hope you don't do it again to us.
No, I'm kidding.
But we do appreciate you being back.
I have a trip in April, nothing before.
Very nice, very nice.
Shout out to Mr. Monotiv.
You guys are not following him you are missing out
i also enjoy when we get around the earnings season he's my guy that i go to asking for
where we are versus the uh the estimates across the whole earnings so shout out to him
good guy good part of the spaces thank you mr. monotiv and definitely feel free to chime back
in on any part of the conversation that we have going forward in here.
Sam Solid, host of the Solid Report,
getting some growing quickly on YouTube and the other platforms.
Mr. Sam, how are you feeling?
We had a good chat there about tech and all that good stuff.
Montez is obviously very smart in the area.
We can jump some conversations off of that back and forth. But I am curious on what's catching your eye in this market.
Obviously, Micron is a story. I saw your cover photo had zeta in it and nebius all of a sudden stock talk the the whole amit's crew and and all of them they're super excited
about nebius now i was even looking into i was like wow this is uh no kratos was today
uh kratos maybe it was maybe i would just want to bring up the nebius
one but that whole crew is now getting excited and getting behind nebius as well so that's
that's a name that's coming across them but yeah what's what's going on in your world i know you
heard a little bit of that conversation there sam but um yeah uh i mean to be honest like this end
of year low volume sopiness we've seen.
The volume is just not there.
VIX is at 14.
I really have not made many moves in the last week,
even in anything other than maybe like added
like a little bit of size to some decisions.
Other than that, like, I don't know.
I think I've just been spending the last couple of weeks
just solidifying the thesis I have on some of the stocks that I own, some of the stocks that I bullish on, and just working on more concentrated portfolio.
The way I'm positioning myself for next year is just staying in profitable companies that have a high margin of safety, high floor, in case we do get a pullback, whatever it is.
But at the end of the year,
it just doesn't seem like anything's going to happen.
So just kind of staying put,
waiting for next year, being a little patient,
working more on the content and stuff,
trying to plan out some stuff for the audience in 2026.
But it's been pretty interesting
just watching the commodity stuff in the sidelines.
I mean, that's a crazy move you have in silver.
Actually, I jumped on the Wolf Trading stream just a few minutes ago. I wouldn't be surprised if silver comes over here
and just rips shorts, faces off, and then falls after that. Like, probably the most probable
scenario that I would picture. Didn't really expect Bitcoin to continue selling off. But if
you kind of zoom out in like the medium to perspective, like it's literally just been shopping in this 85 to 95 range for quite some time. So
I don't think the move is going to happen yet. If it does happen, it's obviously going to be
either up or down. But I think it's just consolidating much like the market is. I mean,
yeah, the market's making new highs and everything. But really, if you zoom out to
since last October, we've just been in a massive 200-point range on ES. It just really hasn't done anything since then. Actually, you can even go
out to September just for three months, like a massive 300-point range. It looks like it wants
to go to the upside, but it's just not getting up there, plus the end of the year. It's probably
just a better time just to take it easy, right?
And let's say if you're an active trader, maybe.
But I would even say, like, what do we get?
Like a 20-point, 30-point range on ES for the last couple of days?
Like, is there really much trading you can do unless you're doing NQ
or unless you just need a couple of points in ES or whatever?
I don't know.
Not really anything that I'm kind of into right now.
Just enjoying the gains from the year and just waiting until next year.
There's some exciting stuff to see starting in January.
Late January, Netflix reports earnings.
Applied Digital is actually reporting earnings in the second week of January.
So it'll be very interesting to see how that pans out.
But toward the end of the year, there's like barely any news out there.
I was trying to come up with some content to talk about today.
Actually, it ended up being a really good show.
We talked about more than a few stocks.
But besides the NVIDIA Grok deal last week,
really isn't anything happening in Silicon Valley.
And I think a lot of that really has to do with my timeline being flooded
with potential short positions on silver and whatever's happening in California.
I mean, this state's crazy.
I honestly don't really care.
I'm not a billionaire, so it doesn't really affect me that much.
It is kind of annoying, but it is what it is, politics set aside.
Just waiting for some things to pick up the market.
I don't really know what else there is to say with that.
Monitib, good seeing you again, man
Glad to see
You're back at home
Wondering where you're going in April
Pretty interesting to hear about that trip coming up
But yeah, that's pretty much it
Oh, by the way, I got smoked in the competition last week
I don't want to talk about it
You're good
That competition is
Not meant to be real It's meant to be uh let's get as high
high beta as we can and hope it works out it doesn't it doesn't it's it's real when i win
it's not real when i lose that is that is life that is how i live my life whatever
time frame best suits my argument is the one that i am talking about. Very nice.
Let's preamp into it,
and then maybe I'll circle back with some more questions
and some conversations off of it.
Mr. Emperor Doerr,
taking a little bit more
of an intraday trading perspective
than some of the other ones on here.
What's catching your eye?
What has this week been like for you?
Obviously, it's Monday,
so the last week or so
i was about to nail you with that one yeah i know i stopped it in vents but um but yeah what
what's what's going on what is this time period been like obviously it's a holiday season i'm
sure maybe you're sitting there thinking uh i could be on a beach sipping a what's your go-to
drink sipping a uh but i'm go-to drink? Sipping a...
I'm just going to say beer because I don't know what else to say.
Una cerveza, por favor.
Yeah, beer, marg, whatever.
Whatever's close by.
Is that what we're feeling like right now, though?
Or were there some good opportunities available?
There was decent intraday opportunities
today. In the big picture of things,
the big scheme of things, I don't think there's much opportunity in this market, period.
Right now, I said this kind of going into the holiday season
about a week, week and a half ago.
After we bounced right before Christmas
and started getting back up to where we're at,
I don't see anything really happening or moving this market
for the next couple weeks.
VIX is super low right now, so you're not getting a lot of volatility for these moves either way.
I don't think you have really any catalysts coming down the pipe at the moment.
We've pretty much, like I've said for a few months on here,
we kept looking forward to the next piece of good news until we ran out of good news to look forward to.
And right now we're kind of looking, what's that next piece of good news going to be?
And I just don't see it out there quite yet. There's not bad news. There's no reason to just
be shorting the market. So I mean, there's things on both sides. There's charts that look pretty
good that are setting up pretty nicely. There's charts that still look pretty bad. I mean,
anything crypto related looks just got awful right now. But there's some other names that,
you know, in tech names that look pretty decent. Amazon, Google, some of those looking pretty
solid right now. There's some other names and some stock talk names that are still looking
pretty decent out there in the market. When I look at the overall market, I mean, you look at
the NASDAQ today came down to the 9 EMA and the 20 simple moving average. That was basically your low of day.
The S&P couldn't even get down to touch the 9 EMA. So still a little bit overextended,
just made a new all-time high on Friday. Just not much to do. And I think the takeaway for me,
at least, has been, hey, I can just sit here and be patient.
I can find some little intraday trades here or there.
You can find a decent opportunity.
I know over on our trading space, we had Casey and some guys that were long eBay today.
And eBay played out nicely for them.
So there are some pockets of opportunity.
Silver, obviously, a lot of people were talking about that.
I bought some puts on Friday.
I was planning to actually buy some more today.
It started the rug pullback before I could even get into any more.
So all I did was take some profits.
I mean, that worked out nicely.
And I think the silver trade's probably a nothing right now.
It's literally a coin flip of what happens.
You may get another little bounce, and then you can short it.
You may get follow-through continuation.
I think the takeaway on silver is the trade's over.
If you weren't already in it, it's over for either side
until it does some type of consolidation
or pushes back up to another high or something.
I just don't think right here with where you're at,
I think if you're not in the trade, I think you missed it.
That's my take on the silver thing.
But in general, I just think the seasonality has been off all year.
We really haven't tracked much seasonality.
September was supposed to be typically a down month.
It wasn't. October was kind of the down month.
We've had a couple interesting pullbacks over the last two months in the market.
And here we are sitting right near all-time highs.
There's nothing wrong with the market, but it doesn't really have a reason to move anywhere.
There's not much volume going on right now at all.
You look at the daily volume, it's pretty anemic, which is typically just a
small float higher, which is what we've been seeing. There's mechanical pieces with the
Santa Claus rally going on, which is basically just, you know, people reshuffling things,
getting some things on their books, things like that. But at all time highs, I don't think you
get the same effect. That's kind of my take around it. So I think it's just kind of a muted Santa Claus rally. And I think we ran it a little bit last week.
So today was kind of a natural little pullback after making a new all-time high. I mean,
what else can you really say here on the broader market? And there's really nothing going on.
There's no real headlines coming out. There's not really anybody at the desk trading this thing.
Most people had a great year across the board. They're not going to put anything in jeopardy
here the last few days of the year. All they're going to do is shape up and dress up their books
a little bit as we get into the new year. And then we'll see as we get into January,
what's the next good news? What's the next wall of worry that the market climbs? Because I don't
see either side of those right now presenting themselves. I feel like we have a very, very neutral, quiet, tame,
calm market. I think you can see that reflected in the VIX. You can see it reflected in the low
volume, slow grind up. And there's just not much going on. I mean, I listened to Newsquacker all
day. You follow the news all day, Evan. There's just not a whole lot of stuff going on. Trump did just say he would love to fire Powell,
but we're so close. I still may. That was his quote just a few moments ago, by the way.
But yeah, until you find out who a new Fed chair is, until you find out if the government may shut
down in January again, you've got the January effect kind of coming in
where people that have done the wash sell,
tax-loss harvesting,
may start buying back some undervalued stocks
here in the next week or two.
And then as we get back into the swing of things,
kids get back into school,
people get back into their normal routine
going into January,
New Year's resolutions kicking off.
Then I think we start to see
maybe what the next move of the market's going to look like.
And how far are we from earnings season, Evan?
Maybe two weeks, two and a half weeks?
Yeah, something like that, two, three weeks.
Yeah.
So until then, I just really don't see, I mean, maybe we move back and forth marginally
a percent or so here or there, but I just don't see us really doing anything other than
kind of going sideways with maybe a slight float to the upside until something changes.
Yeah, those are some decent points there.
I'm just curious on like from a trader's perspective, how does the end of the year cycle into stuff?
Like obviously it's just a day
wednesday is december 31st january uh thursday is january 1st and the market is closed on
thursday so maybe there's some stuff there but as a trader someone with you know most sometimes
intraday time frame mostly intraday time frame sometimes a swing there going after hours is
there any impact on uh on this part of the, on this part of the time of the year?
Yeah, I think you have to trade it a little bit differently.
I think something that I did poorly earlier in my career and what a lot of people I think struggle with is they want to trade the market the same all the time.
And right now the conditions are just much different. It reminds me of like an early July, like that, you know, 4th of July week kind of time where things just, there's not much volume. There's not much move in the market. We're sitting at all time highs. That's kind of what my point was. There's not a whole lot to do. If you do take any intraday trades, you have to be a lot quicker to take profit.
And right now the conditions are just much different.
to take profit. The swing trades, I'm just, I'm not convinced in entering the swing trades just
yet. I mean, if you got in on some swing trades a week and a half ago, I think you're sitting in a
pretty good spot. If you're in a longer, you know, long, long dated, you know, three, six plus months
out, I think you're sitting fine and probably several of your swing trades depending on your
entry, but just net new stuff.
I just don't see a whole lot of opportunity to do that right here. And so for what I,
I just slow way down, you know, I'm still watching things. I'm still looking for opportunities, but
my overall volume of trades goes way down. My total trading positions goes way down.
And really what we've been doing, at least on the trading side, a lot of us have been selling a lot
more options, selling a lot more premium because of the market conditions.
I mean, I know Stock Talk's around here. He's probably not doing much. I mean, I watch his
alerts and stuff. I don't think he's doing a whole lot right here. I think he's fine. He's fine with
the way his year went. He's fine with the positions he's holding and the conviction he's got.
And there's probably just not much going on.
And I saw Monitiv reacting down there too.
I mean, you can play the market both ways
when the market has, it's actually,
it's almost tough to sell premium with VIX this low,
but you can adjust your risk a little bit differently
because the VIX is so low
that you're not gonna get outsized moves
like we've seen really since April. I mean, the VIX is as low as you're not going to get outsized moves like we've seen really since April.
I mean, the VIX is as low as it's been since Trump took office.
But you can find, you know, you can go out a little bit of time or go out a few strikes on either side,
and you can pretty much just sell the market back to the middle and sell premium, just let it burn out.
And honestly, I think that's the best way to trade the the market until we get to maybe
mid late january where we start to get some more catalysts moving yeah it has definitely been a uh
slow couple weeks is what we can call it here slow couple days slow couple weeks from the news
perspective i definitely have had not that much to go in and post about um sometimes you got to make your own news which
means maybe i should be at the beach or something but that is not what i will be doing that is not
what i shall be doing thank you mr m for uh for throwing in there by by the way guys if you didn't
know wolf trading is like 20 30 40 followers away from hitting 30k so if you guys enjoy
trading content throughout
the day you guys can go give that account a follow should definitely be checking out and
giving everyone up here a follow sniper i'll try back over to you one more time
oh i'm sorry i didn't even know that i was called on um i was just dealing with the cold weather
um and just recently got out of it.
What was that?
What was the topic that was asked?
Just general.
Why don't you jump in on what's catchy?
I monitored was talking through the defense areas.
It was when I believe I brought it back into your direction.
But just in general, what you were keeping an eye on,
if there's a part of the market.
Obviously, we were at the end of the year.
This is a specific time period where maybe a lot of not a lot is happening maybe you are
looking back at some of your old positions planning for next year not even looking at
the portfolio whatever it is i'm curious uh what the last little bit has looked like for you
yeah um honestly i've looked back at this year and um there's some some names that i'm very
happy that i got into um I gotta say, overall collectively,
it was a pretty good year for me. I'm definitely more happy about some names than others, but
two of my favorite ones thus far are Kratos and Iron that I've been talking about a lot recently.
I pretty much am, I say, my highest conviction going into 2026, I would say, is the autonomous drone
systems. And I'm pretty much very infatuated or trying to figure out who's going to win that
loyal wingman program. I think that that company is going to make billions and billions of revenue.
I think that we will have a winner of that next year at some point. And basically the two of the
main contenders right now is Lockheed Martin's Vectis and Kratos's QX58 Valkyrie. I'm pretty much looking at those two and kind of watching
what developments are coming in these spaces and also watching Kratos's moves very carefully.
They're doing a lot of hypersonic developments. They're building lots of different test
effectiveness measurements and basically things that are helping them kind of completely understand and further test out hypersonic labs.
So I put out a list. I'm going to go ahead and pin it in the nest above.
But I put out a list this week where I was talking about every potential one billion dollar project on Kratos.
billion dollar project on Kratos. Every single one potential 1 billion plus project in Kratos,
I'm going to pin that in the nest just shortly. And then I have to say that my second highest
conviction pick going into 2026 is going to be Iron. I'm very interested in watching what happens
at the Sweetwater 2 data center, and I've been pretty focused on that. There's just lots of
Mag7 companies and other hyperscalers in close proximity of Sweetwater
So again, there's rumors and all kinds of things circulating about a potential additional
Mag7 name partnering with Iron.
Keeping an eye on that very closely, I know that they're using only about 10% of their
total portfolio right now.
And that's pretty much what I'm watching.
I'd say is those two names are my highest picks slash closest watches as a plate.
Monitive, if I could circle back over to you, are the irons of the world, the, I don't know
exactly what to call them, high-performance compute switchers from other industries,
whatever you want to call it.
Are there anything you're interested in at all?
Strangely enough, I am.
Look, it's basically a call option on, you know, power contract, right?
That's really what they have.
Everything else, you know, everybody else has more,
including access to capital.
What they have is contracted power capacity
that they can, you know, that they can monetize,
you know, in different ways.
Personally, you know, going into the business
and renting out GPUs is probably
the worst way to do it, in my opinion. They're probably better off, you know, leasing out
those contracted power, you know, deals and getting paid for it or, you know, whether
directly or indirectly, you know, you can structure that deal in multiple ways.
But it is a big deal.
It is one thing that seems to be a massive problem,
even for the largest players with no limits to capital.
So this is a time for them.
But going into that business and trying to compete, you know,
on anything but price is not possible for these companies.
So you've got to be careful.
They do not have the ability to generate the cash flow that the hyperscalers have.
So if they go in, they have to compete on price to a certain extent.
So I think they take advantage of what they have and figure out the best way to monetize it rather than just just being
another new scaler i don't think that's a business i like yeah those are some fair points there i
honestly thought you would maybe have a not as positive take on it so it's interesting for me i i don't on the entire industry i look
the you you see you know a wealth of posts every day about oh gpu prices gpu rental rates are
actually going up this and that i i don't think I believe any of that over time.
These are all point-in-time data that's being thrown about as reasons to be hyper-bullish, the entire sector.
I have a problem with that.
I have a problem with that.
Valuation is just way out of whack.
Valuation is just way out of whack.
So unless you show me cashflow that's following right now,
I don't like the idea.
That doesn't mean I'm short it.
That doesn't mean I'm short multiple,
I'm not even short anything at this point in that.
But I don't like where this entire bet is,
it's gonna come in the future and it's coming fast.
It's like, yeah, I'll wait till I see it.
Right now, it's overvalued.
So most of them are.
So, Manitav, I got to ask you a question, right?
And your opinion, you know, so a lot of these data centers or some of them that are kind of focusing more towards capital expenditures are capable with the current compute of making about a million cash a day,
you know, in Bitcoin mining.
If you were out there and you were in charge,
would you rather see some of these data centers focus more on the Bitcoin mining side?
Well, I'm going to assume one thing here, right?
I'm going to assume that whatever they do,
they do not need the entire capacity of power connection that they already contracted for to do Bitcoin.
use what they can for Bitcoin
and then lease out the rest of the
space or
somebody else to come in and pay them
to use it
they're going to develop
all of, maybe
write the contract in such a way that
the remainder assets get
left to them so
once we're done with one or
two generations of GPU,
you still have improvements to the, you know, to the data center left, right? So you still have
substantially upgraded network, back end, you know, power nodes, HVAC, all that kind of stuff
can be left behind. So it's up to how they write the contract. If they're just going to join the bunch and say, you know what,
we're also going to get into, you know, GP renting,
that to me is the, you know, is the least,
it seems the simplest solution to push up share price now,
but the least effective over term because it's just not going to be a high margin
business for too long.
I think that was a great answer.
Thank you, man.
I got to say, I agree.
I would like to see them mining some Bitcoin, but I got to say, I think that there is potential
and also with the total AI space, I think it's going to continue to grow.
And I think that we're going to see lots of things that we probably were not expecting in 2026 coming up.
But I do see your perspective.
And if they were to use these data centers to mine Bitcoins, they could again sell it in two, three years later.
Probably at a lower rate than they bought for everything, but they would have gotten something out of
So it does significantly mitigate their risk.
I do see your perspective there.
So you also have to remember, right, we're looking at it from a US centric point of view.
I was in India for six weeks.
I had a chance to, you know, visit a couple of states where they're throwing a shit ton of government money, support backing,
free land, all kinds of stuff to attract data centers. And those are by nature, let alone
fixed costs of these things, those are by nature going to be lower priced options when customers go looking for them. So this is, at some point in time, we're going to realize that there's a valuation issue here, right?
So that's my problem.
You go to Singapore, they're packed.
All of their data centers have been upgraded and they're working around the clock to free up capacity
in older data centers to do this stuff.
So everywhere around the world I look,
lower-cost locations are getting deep into the business,
which to me is all the more reason that pricing is going to go down.
So that's my point.
It seems the easiest way to push up stock price in the short term,
but I don't see this as a sustainable competitive advantage for any of them, right?
Without the ability to generate obscene amount of cash flow from other businesses.
That's what differentiates the hyperscalers and neoscalers,
is they're making this shit ton of money on a daily basis from other businesses
at great margins that they can afford to make 20, 30, 40, 50 billion dollar mistakes
and not even feel the, you know, effect of
that.
These guys, you know, have a debt burden to tide over unless they do it all in stock and
they're able to get away with it.
I question that, you know, I mean, we saw what happened to Oracle.
Precisely what I've been questioning is the balance sheet is an issue, right?
Your leverage is an issue.
If these smaller companies try that,
you're going to start seeing, you know,
serious problems
in the debt market.
I don't think this can continue
for long. That's the point I made
earlier. I see more shorts
in the AI space than lungs that
doesn't mean i'm i'm short already i'm just seeing that the risk of a downside is far higher
in far larger number of companies in the ai space than is an upside you know upside run
on yeah there's just some interesting points there um because obviously listen it's it's it's
when are they going to start to make money from this stuff there probably is a blip there probably
is a scare before it ends up getting to the point there and when you look back at the internet and
all that stuff i feel like we don't now maybe i happen to believe that the winners are just going to be the really large companies that are investing in this aggressively the um
microsoft googles amazons of the world etc meta i don't want to leave any of those mega cap names
out but um you know a lot of new names are going to come up through this and i feel like a lot of
the names that are big today may not be the ones that are driving this forward once we're really
getting to commercialization in 5, 10, 15 years.
So yeah, we are definitely in a very interesting time right now. Most of my bets here are on the bigger names, but that's also more my investing style than anything else. So definitely should
be an interesting one. And 2026 Monotiff could be a year where we start to get more answers
and questions. I feel like we've had a little joke on the spaces every once in a while, like around earnings and Jerome Powell days and stuff like
that. Like, we'll go into it, stock talk, we'll say the stuff that he learned, and then we come
out of it thinking like, I say the stuff that we want to hear, and then we come out of it thinking,
all right, I have more questions than answers before. And I wonder if we're, if 2026 can be a
year, this is probably what we thought coming into every single year where we start to see more of the answers
around AI actually turning into money,
actually turning into revenue,
actually turning into profits for these companies.
Obviously, revenue is going to be first,
but we are still looking for those couple of examples.
Right now, there's still a lot of trust
that's going in of this AI success is coming
as opposed to actually seeing it?
Well, think about what happens if we don't see it soon enough, right?
Then the valuations are going to be even more stretched.
The risk is going to be even higher.
That's the point I'm making.
That's why I'm not in some of these trades,
though they look interesting like having pulled back 50, 60% or so from their tops.
having pulled back 50, 60% or so from their tops.
My worry is if they're not able to show, you know,
the level of revenue growth that supports the stock price
and the guidance and, you know,
and the analyst expectations, we've got a problem.
We are building risk on a daily basis
until we see those numbers.
I'll be happy to be wrong if I see those numbers,
but I don't see them yet, so I'll just wait.
Yeah, that is some fair points. So Manitiv, I got to ask you one last question on that. What
numbers would you be looking for going into next year? Do you want to see an increase in revenues,
or are you looking for them to maintain high margins? No, no margin can come later. I'm not
worried about margins, but I need to see significant. Look, it's cash, right? Cash generation needs to
start scaling up dramatically or they're going to have to depend on fundraise on a regular basis to
keep up their, you keep up their expansion plans.
If they start generating free cash flow, it doesn't have to be real profitability, but
free cash flow is important.
They need to start increasing that dramatically.
And I'll be happy if I see that happening.
Yeah, I can't really agree with that one right or disagree with that one right there um i would like
to see the cash flow increase uh i do believe that they could instantly doing it do it with
the bitcoin mining pivot um but again i personally just believe because of the west texas proximity
uh to a lot of uh hyperscalers i think think that that will be more incentive for the hyperscalers
to want to work with some of these Texas-based data centers.
Just because of the proximity of it,
it would cut their travel costs significantly.
I'm curious how many of these Bitcoin miners
are going to try to pivot into this seemingly crowded space
that's kind of an unknown of data
centers. And I've seen that presented for months now on the Bitcoin miner side that, hey, they can
also tap into this instead and have kind of a dual purpose. And it was kind of a positive note. But
now it's like, how competitive is that space going to be? And it seems like, you know, with what we're
seeing, I don't know, but Modern is much more in touch with this than I am,
but from the narratives coming out of Oracle
and some of these other places is like,
they might have overshot this idea a little bit
on this like renting out space in the data centers.
That was exactly my point earlier.
It's like, you know, you have one asset
that's an extreme short supply and extreme high demand, which is your contracted power.
You know, leverage that, not go into business, you know, doubling down on what everybody else is doing when you don't have the financial wherewithal of an Oracle, let alone a Microsoft or a Google.
of an Oracle, let alone a Microsoft or Google.
Can I switch the topic up a little bit?
I just posted this about Groq, G-R-O-Q.
NVIDIA recently making this acquisition.
I'm curious, Montev, if you could share your thoughts on it a little bit more,
if you have too many insights into this one.
When I'm reading into this, and obviously it's not an area that i consider myself to be a full
expert in but this was a lot more of an inference deal the inference side of the market which is a
lot more competitive giving nvidia a landscape in there obviously like grok doesn't want to say this
is an acquisition but it's this whole weird thing i just saw an article from wall street journal
saying grok was projecting revenue of 1.4 billion billion in 2026 from $500 million this year and $90 million last year.
Now, I don't see the profit side of that one, so we don't know too deep into it.
But I am curious, Monitiv, if you have any thoughts on NVIDIA acquiring Grok.
If any initial reactions you had, maybe some reasons they were going to do it, is this an area that you
know and understand?
I don't have a
direct opinion. I don't know much about
the technology behind
SRAM and why they're buying
or why they're
licensing non-exclusively
but look
Nvidia is generating way more cash they can use,
and they have two problems. One is they don't know when this will end, and two,
they know that everybody that's buying from them is vastly different in their financial abilities.
is vastly different in their financial abilities.
They need to keep the whole market running, right?
The Microsofts and the Amazons and the Googles can run themselves to some extent.
I suppose even Oracle can do that just fine.
But as you come down that list, the rest of them are going to need a lot of help.
And by investing,
NVIDIA is just buying their sales,
their own sales, right?
So they're buying their own future revenues by investing in these companies.
I don't like it.
I think that's going to end badly at some point in time. But as long as they keep generating this kind of cash flow at the 75, 76% margin, it's probably not the you know, this is not as bad as it would be in other circumstances.
So it's, they're being an active VC with a market to support and sustain. actively making sure that their future cash flows are somewhat protected and in their control.
And that's what they're trying to do.
Whether it works, how long it works, I don't know.
But again, the cost of doing it with the kind of margin they make is not terrible.
They can afford it for now when this all falls apart.
Then we'll know how bad this gets. terrible they can afford it for now when this all falls apart you know then then
we'll know you know then we'll know how bad this gets but but right now they
generate so much cash that this is it's it's not that among all the options they
have you know this is not the very worst I suppose it's some at the bottom I
don't like it but you know what what else are they going to do with the cash?
You know, they keep buying back.
Yeah, maybe that's an option.
But then again, you know, the valuation is so high.
I don't think that is going to help with, you know, preserving their cash flow for, you know, a bit longer, a bit longer, you know, every, maybe add a
few quarters of, of, of this rally continuing by making sure that, you know, all the companies
that are buying from them are also companies that they have a stake.
And so, you know, it, it, it looks better when they need to go raise money.
So it's, I don't like it.
Let's just put it that way.
It's not a good look, but it helps them short term, maybe even, you know, medium term.
A very interesting landscape right now, for sure.
With the amount of money that they are throwing off every single quarter of recash so like they're looking for stuff to do with it
so i'm sure a lot of this and that's the entire point right in in a few quarters if this continues
on nobody will remember that they threw in you know 10 billion to corvi even you know 20 billion
to grak and nobody will even remember this if they continue spinning money out at the rate they are.
All they need is to just keep this going for a little bit longer and a little bit longer.
And that's precisely what they're trying to do.
The market did seem to be happy with this one, though. It seems to be going after the right part of the market did seem to be happy with this one though
seems to be going after the right part of the market
again I don't know too much
I'd have to dig in deeper to really
be able to give you that firm opinion
but the opinions going around
were that at least they're playing in the right market here
going for a weakness
in an area that might be a big part
going forward
but Motif I appreciate the in an area that might be a big part going forward.
But Monitif, I appreciate the take there.
You've been carrying a lot of the second hour here, Monitif,
so we've got about six minutes left.
After this, the Wolf Financial account will be opening up a space,
doing those stock picks for the week.
So you go and expect that, get excited, opening that up in six minutes.
But Monitif, I'll kick it over to you first as we kind of get into outros,-ups all that good stuff i don't know if you'll be joining us tomorrow but if there's
anything you want to share and like it's the end of the year getting excited for next year just as
we go into closing thoughts i appreciate you for for being active um coming back to our back i hope
you had a great vacation but we but we appreciate you being back.
Any kind of finalish words you want to leave the people with?
Yeah.
I mean, look, we had an incredibly good quarterly report last quarter, right?
We ended, like I said, just under 15% earnings growth and 8.3% revenue growth.
This late in this expansion cycle, that's incredible numbers.
These are really, really good numbers.
So at least as far as what the companies are seeing on the ground,
we are in good shape.
So unless things,
I mean, there's really nothing to show
that things are going to unravel
at a rapid pace, right?
If you have a decline,
it's going to be a slow decline,
but even that we're not seeing yet.
So that's the only thing that keeps me from, you know,
taking short positions at this point in time is
overall data is really good.
The strength is really there.
We did not even see, you know, serious caution or worry
in the commentary from last quarter, at least certainly not from the big company.
So that's the only thing that, you know, keeps me in my large trades and not brings me into, you know, short trades.
And I think some of the projected numbers for next quarter sort of show that, right?
So unless we see something change, and I don't expect a dramatic change,
it's probably going to be a slow change, which is why I don't want to be short.
I just want to, you know, wait and get that data before I make that decision.
Good points.
Shout out, Malintifif you should be following him mr. stock sniper on that wolf defense account that we have up here if you guys aren't
already following the wolf defense you guys should be checking that out giving
it a follow we'll talk more about the just defense space airplanes I think
planes other stuff like that so you check out the account but
snap anything you want to leave the people with i saw your text feel free yeah so um i just wanted
to let everybody know for those who keep up with the defense contracts or are interested in keeping
up with the defense contracts in an efficient way um you can follow this account and i will be
posting slightly after 5 p.m on mondays through thursdays um at 5 p.m slightly after 5 p.m. on Mondays through Thursdays
at 5 p.m. slightly after 5 p.m. the defense contracts for every branch of the military every day with the cash values with the companies receiving them and everything you want to know.
And also if you wanted to know about geopolitical tensions without all the dumb updates and just
the high impact headlines you will be able to find that here as well vice versa with some space and also with some commercial aviation news so take a look for awesome
content coming out of this account and especially for those who are into
defense and aviation and in space shout out I appreciate you for being here sir
mr. and you guys follow that account follow the speakers up here for those
who don't know stock talks feel a little bit under the weather today.
So I'm not going to prod and maybe if it was a crazy day in the market, we'd be going the more that way.
But we'll let them rest.
You guys aren't following Stock Talk.
You were missing out.
I'm sure a lot of you guys are here for Stock Talk specifically.
So sorry to disappoint today.
I'm sure I think it was still a good conversation either way.
conversation either way but you should go and check out what he's doing and if you're uh
But you should go and check out what he's doing.
word on the street was he got so mad at the mavs for losing to the kings that he uh he just started
screaming at the coach and lost his voice that's that's word on the street i can't confirm that yet
yeah i can neither confirm nor deny i was gonna go over to sam but mr uh imp you did unmute there
you got anything you want to leave the people with on this one i know you got a space opening
up in two minutes from that Wolf account.
Also, like I said earlier, Wolf Trading is less than 60 followers away
from hitting 30,000 followers.
That's exciting.
You guys are posting a lot of stuff over there.
You got anything you want to leave the people with, Mr. Emp?
Short and sweet.
Less is more in times like this.
No one there's opportunity and no one there's more in times like this. Knowing there's opportunity and knowing there's not.
Bang, bang. Wolf Trading
Live. Whenever the market is open,
you should expect Wolf Trading to be live, either
on Spaces or Livestream.
Like I said, now
less than 50 followers away from 30k.
Or both.
There you go, Taco Bell.
Oh, sorry.
Last, but certainly not least,
the host of the Solid Report
goes live on Wolf Financial X
and YouTube a bunch.
This guy's doing some great content.
Mr. Sam Solid,
anything you want to leave the people with?
Not much. Just competition's not real because I lost
bang bang
if you want more live free content right now
I'm second place so
competition's real this week
it's very not real
if you guys want more live free content
first make sure you're following this account
that is hosting this space.
If you are not already,
you should throw in notifications.
We really don't post that much from this account.
You really shouldn't see much
except for the post of us going live.
Follow the other speakers up here.
Once I close this down,
that Wolf Financial account
is opening up spaces right now.
Another two hours of content
with some really smart investors and traders
and all that stuff will be coming in. And yeah montev follow that wolf defense account follow sam solid i
appreciate you all shout stock top stock talk for helping me co-host this and the wolf financial
account as well we've been doing this for like three years now or something and we're heading
into our fourth year i am excited i am appreciative of every single one of you guys coming in and supporting the stuff that
we are doing.
I see all the comments.
I see the stuff, the support.
We really, really do appreciate each and every single one of you guys for allowing us to
do what we do and allowing us to do something that we genuinely enjoy and love and get to
talk.
So yeah, thank you to each and every single one of you.
Thank you to the speakers for coming in and supporting us.
I hope everyone has a happy new year.
Hope you guys get to celebrate it with someone you love, family, anything else like that.
But thank you to everyone.
I will catch you all later.
Like I said, go check out that Wolf account.
Space should have just opened up.
Let's see.
I don't see space just yet, but it should be coming soon.
All right.
Have a great one, team.
We will catch you all tomorrow.
Stocks on Spaces will be live tomorrow.
No Stocks on Spaces on Wednesday.
It is New Year's Day.
Yeah.
And the market is closed on Thursday, so no Stocks on Spaces.
That's tomorrow.
Last Stocks on Sp spaces of the week.
I will make sure Stock Talk talks tomorrow.
We'll make them fight through the Mavs loss.
But thank you to everyone.
I saw even that Wolf Defense account dumped like 50 followers.
Shout out to that.
Have a great one, team.
Love you, bye. Thank you.
Insights
P
