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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: July 9, 2025 Duration: 2:57:18Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, participants highlighted significant developments in the crypto space, including Perplexity's browser launch, OpenAI's competitive responses, and the growing trend of tokenization in real-world assets. The conversation also touched on the bullish outlook for Ethereum and Coinbase's strategic positioning, indicating a vibrant market landscape.
Full Transcription
What is up? What is up? how is everybody doing today i am currently outdoors touching some
grass some could say well touching some pavement stones actually for being more more realistic here
hope everyone is having a good day though there's some interesting stuff going on in the market overall. Nothing too crazy. I'm seeing Google up 1.3% after one or two scares throughout the day.
I know Perplexity launching their own browser.
I saw OpenAI also coming in after Perplexity had their announcements.
OpenAI put out one too.
So a couple interesting stuff there.
I have some thoughts on the Perplexity launch too and what it may mean for Google, we'll see.
But there's a lot of other stuff going on.
QQQ up 0.6%, SPY up 0.5% overall.
Pretty solid day.
NVIDIA, META, two names that are working.
Apple, Tesla, two names that honestly aren't doing too bad today.
Apple's about even.
Tesla's down about 0.3%, which is also about even.
But not the 1%,
which also Microsoft and Amazon are up 1% too.
Nice.
Google too. Basically, every single one of the Mag 7
is up 1%. Apple and Vedia. Apple and
Tesla are both around even on
the day. I appreciate you all for coming
in and hanging out with us. Options Mike
was here within the first five people I saw.
So, let's kick it over to you, Mike.
How are you doing?
We appreciate you being a nice guy.
I'm good, man.
Emp was late.
Mike was on time.
Good job.
Score one for me.
What do you take?
Any trades today?
Was it green today?
Mark is still struggling along.
So, you know, this morning, NVIDIA was set up set up and meta were really nicely set up um
i didn't get nvidia i didn't feel twice on it and i gave up chasing it that was a mistake but i i
traded meta twice and caught really nice trades on that that just right alone made my day entire day
just on that so i met a real nice day here the Q's did hit a new all-time high today. The SPY not quite, just missed it by about a buck and a half. You know, it's just, it's very summer
trading, Evan. It's, you know, we get an explosion out of the gate for 30, 40 minutes, and then we go,
you got to whip back down, right? We gave the whole entire move back. The SPY gave the gap up
back, and now we're grinding back up. You you know seasonality says we're due for you know
some kind of mischief here probably you know some selling off some precelling pressure but
i look at this week next week we have earnings i know we're gonna have our earnings call tomorrow
and you know it's gonna give a lot of names to focus on but today it was you know today it was
a nice name meta boeing broke out today um dav Davidia obviously knew all-time highs.
The SMHs knew all-time highs.
Google had a nice day despite those two.
Did Boeing have a
headline? I just got a notification
about halfway through that it was up 5%.
I didn't even see it.
No, there was no headlines on it.
It's been trying to break this level and finally
get it today. Palantir's
having a nice day, extending his nice three-day run on it.
Hood bounce back, coins on highs of the day.
I mean, if you look around, there's things to do.
There's definitely things to do in this market as long as you're looking around
and looking for trades if you're active.
If you're not active, a little bit tougher.
So I did eventually trade NVIDIA on a small trade,
traded Microsoft and Meta twice, and that's it for me today you know i i learned long ago you don't
try to screw around with a tape like this you make your money and then you look for opportunities
that either really excite you or you just let them let the market go do its thing and
you know um mark is just doing his thing it's it's a rudderless ship here it's generally strong
and moving up.
But, you know, the algos are going to whip things around and try to stop everybody else.
I just realized that.
Mike, do you trade crypto at all?
Well, I'm long IBIT.
That's my extent, or I trade coin or some of the crypto names.
But I don't trade crypto per se.
I want to ask people, and, you know I'm going to hear my thoughts from you.
It just came up on my screen, Ethereum.
Does anyone have any, anyone watching this one?
I know it's been in this range bound.
We had the Tom Lee making this treasury company.
Oh, you got SBET, right? That's a different one.
That's a second one.
BMNR is the one that Tom Lee is on.
That was only 50% earlier today.
Well, I mean, it was just stupidly valued.
Let's see.
It's at 40% today.
BMNR.
Progress.
Yeah, but the idea is that like, you know how people say, oh, why would you buy MicroStrategy
when you can buy Bitcoin?
Because MicroStrategy trades at like three times
the net asset value. Basically, how much Bitcoin they own, the market cap is three times that or
whatever it is now. And BMNR was like, I don't know, it was like 40 times or something. It
basically got that Tom Lee effect. And that doesn't make a lot of sense. Then a name like SBET is
trading, I think, closer to two times. Yeah, there you go. Something like that. I don't know what it is now because it's obviously been running up,
but I'm personally in SBAT.
It's down today a little bit on SBAT.
But are these?
I think it's been kind of sideways for a little.
Well, actually, I just posted a chart on it yesterday.
If you looked at it, it got rejected at the 200-day five times.
One of them, it broke above the 200-day recently,
and it was a fake breakout it broke
down found support back at the 100 day and then it bounced right back up and now it's above the
200 day and all the different moving averages so ethereum looks even better than bitcoin right now
here i think personally but bitcoin looks amazing
pump my bags pump my bags i saw a wolfie emoji as well emote maybe look at those bags pumping baby
uh you i saw you emote a little when i made the ethereum comments
yeah any thoughts on it um yeah first time long time it outperforms bitcoin on a relative basis
has a lot of catch up um we We've been along since mid-May.
I've talked about it here.
Been along SBET for, you know, since $9.
Whenever we talked about it, Evan, I sold most of the SBET trade today,
whatever was left of it, down to 10% of my original position.
I'm not hearing anybody talking.
I can hear anybody else.
Wolf is talking.
Sorry. No, I'm just making sure sorry um yeah so i i like it i think uh if it can get
above its recent highs ethereum that is uh you might get this momentum build
on the back of on the back of just you know bitcoin can't seem to get out of its own way.
But the second order of this is this tokenization thing, right?
So you've got this Robinhood issuing tokens for, you know, the idea of trading private companies
without having any affiliation for private companies.
and you could dunk on that and you know i dunk on it so i'll start there i dunk on the idea of
And you could dunk on that.
And, you know, I dunk on it.
So I'll start there.
anyone wanting to trade some sort of token that just represents uh a theoretical asset price
with no underlying because you don't actually own anything but uh that being said like it's
no different than trading like buying something on poly So you want to do that and have a ball.
But to me, the tokenization thing is just laying the foundation and testing out the bugs for Rails for the second order of tokenization,
which is eventually putting mortgages and putting asset-backed stuff on it.
So all that stuff's going to have to run on Ethereum or Solana, probably Ethereum first.
that stuff's gonna have to run on Ethereum or Solana, probably Ethereum first.
And so I think if that starts to kind of happen in the short term, short order, you're gonna
see a pump just off of momentum and off of that hype.
So that's kind of the thesis.
But outside of that, it's been underperforming Bitcoin for like four years.
And for the first time in a long time, it's starting to perform a little bit better.
Larry, you had your hand up.
Were you gonna say something about that?
And then I definitely wanna go over to Jeff.
Yeah, no, I would just say it's all a similar theme.
You look at biotechs, you look at micro caps,
you look at small caps, you look at regional banks,
you look at home builders.
It's just a part of like I'm a technician, right? So understanding market cycles and understanding that we had leadership and we're seeing junky areas of the market. We're seeing rotation into
those areas of the market. And I think Ethereum is just another example of more risk on behavior. If you look like an ETH versus BTC ratio, Ethereum versus Bitcoin ratio, all of this
to me is a very similar looking trade.
You look at, like I said, you look at microcaps, you look at the regional banks, you look at
biotechs.
It's all doing this similar thing where it's getting above the 200 day, it's building a
base, and now it's built like a base on top of a base.
Very similar-looking patterns there.
I think the stories around it, there's always stories around everything,
but I think it's that next wave of not leadership,
but just rotation that you see under the surface.
Look at something like materials, XLB.
Materials look great, and it's that same exact setup you're seeing in Ethereum.
What's materials have to do with Ethereum? Nothing. Right. So I think it's just we're in that part of
the cycle where you're seeing these, we call them catch up trades, right? Catch up areas of the
market kind of working underneath the surface of the market. Microcaps are up 82 bps today,
right? I don't hear anyone talking about that. Not that you need to, right? I'm not saying that
in an aggressive tone, just there's actually breadth expansion that's taking place under the
surface in the market. And I think the same thing is happening in crypto. It's not a uniqueness to
a story around Ethereum, in my opinion. I think it's just a feature of where we're at in the
cycle of the market. That's my thoughts on Ethereumereum i appreciate the thoughts and as always anyone
can feel free to jump in whenever they have anything heaven could you see my hand there no
no i cannot actually you know you and mike are the only people you now you're the only person
down there as a listener okay well um sorry jeff uh did did you want to comment i don't know if you have like
short time and you want to go now no no i'm just this whole bitcoin thing i don't know but i've
been tracking it a little bit here is it is it me or is it having trouble breaking out to a new high
uh well it's been doing the shakeout for like a few weeks now what i can say is that the last
time we were at these 110k levels uh you know, the first time we got there on November to January timeframe,
you were 30% overextended on the 200 day.
Now you're just about 10%.
So I think that the moving averages
are gonna act more of a support here.
So, you know, I do feel,
it does feel like we're getting that cup and handle
and it's consolidating at the highs.
And I don't know, the chart looks freaking beautiful,
but yeah, it's the king of the shakeout and it has been. you know who knows if we get that move what i can say uh just to
comment on piggyback on some of that um crypto stuff i was listening to the compound and friends
with the ritholtz wealth guys like downtown josh brown michael batnick they had um rick edelman on
who runs a 300 billion dollar fund he was talking about you know having crypto exposure he recommends
his clients have like anywhere between 15 to 40% of their portfolio in crypto, which was crazy to hear from a guy who runs a legit fund.
But he spent the hour talking about tokenization of real world assets. And these are topics that
when I was writing for Wolf Financial on the street, I would write about these articles a lot
about these different companies trying to tokenize real world assets like treasury bills and get them, you know, tokenized essentially.
So people in the crypto layer can be able to access traditional assets, but also that we could have real time processing of, you know, real world assets.
What I think is really interesting is once they break into tokenizing real estate, real estate has a global market cap 10 times that of the stock market.
So if we're able to- You still can't use Bitcoin or any of this stuff to buy anything.
No, Bitcoin is not the play there. It's just general crypto and blockchain, but I think
Ethereum is the most legitimate network. I think that the winner is not necessarily going to be
Ethereum, but it could very well end up being a layer two
built on top of Ethereum.
Like for example, the base network
that Coinbase is building.
I talked about this one a lot last year.
And the more I'm starting to see these tailwinds
for tokenizing real world assets,
I'm starting to think, man, is it gonna be Coinbase
that ends up being the victor here?
Because that base network is basically leveraging
the amazing processing ability of the Ethereum that layer one. that ends up being the victor here because um that base network is basically leveraging the
amazing processing ability of the ethereum that layer one but if you know ethereum has insane gas
fees so it just makes it practical base is able to do uh transactions for like fractions and
fractions of a penny so you get the fast and strong processing ability of the layer one ethereum while getting the low fees
of like a solana and so again if we end up going down this path there's two implications here uh
one for the general markets imagine you could lick like make liquid the most illiquid asset
which is real estate and now that can end up becoming more liquidity into markets in general
i mean that's an insane tailwind that has never really been there before and that could just like
cause insane halterps across the board and two uh on the coinbase front dude if they end up being
the winner and transact and like you know the base network for example being the layer that
is doing a lot of this i mean you know coinbase is probably
the next trailer company if not beyond that and you know coinbase to one thousand dollars probably
this uh this cycle and i'm just you know i'm price anchoring here because it was just at 250 and
after the circle stuff it went to 350. i i just can't get myself to buy right now but if we get
any sort of pullback you know and coin and Coinbase, this like narrative materializes,
the tokenizing assets and they're the leader,
then that thing is going much higher.
So that was my thoughts on that.
What about this Algorand platform?
Any thoughts on that?
Look, there's a lot of these platforms,
but they all have something, usability one stellar xlm
the other one is you know chain link and blah blah but i think is really the king and i think
that it's going to be like a layer two built on top of that but who knows man you know it could
totally be a layer one that none of us have even heard of yet it could something else could end up
being the winner right like we didn't all know about OpenAI a few years ago,
and all of a sudden it's killing search, right?
So who knows, right?
The winner could be something we don't know yet.
The other thing, just from my seasonal hat,
is we are entering that period that also impacts Bitcoin.
So I didn't get my entry point on the iBit.
I trade the ETF.
So I think we might get
another opportunity late august september like we have many years in the recent past with with uh
the cryptos um though you know sorry jeff just because i just saw literally five minutes ago
a friend of ours key on flow side and posted 11.9 million of $370 puts being sold
to open on Coinbase just now.
Like, it might be time, but we'll see.
Yeah.
Well, I mean, it's in line, you know, crypto is supposed to be some sort of hedge.
But what we've all realized over the past few years is that it's pretty much tracking
the market, Nasdaq, like 2, 3, 4x, whatever.
And we are heading into this seasonal peak that everyone's talking about now that I've been
talking about for years. And recently, the Christmas in July, NASDAQ mid-year rally,
mid-July peak, week this August, September. My only concern is everybody's talking about it
right now. And when everybody's talking about it, it's probably not likely to happen.
So we might get this bull run a little bit longer than everyone's expecting.
And that sell-off may be either off time or not as steep as the naysayers or as the bears or whatever seasonal people normally look for.
So I don't know. There's, there's a lot of bullish underpinnings.
Technically we're seeing, you know, the internals improve a bit.
We're seeing, you know, the advanced, there's no discussion.
You have anything nice to say about Apple?
Your seasonality is a good time right now.
Say again? People listen, I've been hearing a lot of claims on the internet that this is a good time right now. Say again?
People, listen, I've been hearing a lot of claims on the internet that this is a good time period for Apple.
This week and last week,
or next week, historically.
Maybe July in general.
Yeah, I think it's part of that tech
run that I was talking about.
I'm using Apple right now.
I tried to find something to watch
on Apple TV last night to no avail.
So I think they should stick to that.
Are you a sci-fi guy?
Have you seen Silo?
I'm kind of picky, you know.
I'm from New York, so I'm kind of a critic.
Silo is good.
If you haven't seen Severance as well, that is good.
I'll check it, you know.
My time is limited, and I value it good. I'll check it. You know, my time is limited and I value it.
But I know I just didn't see a lot of great content on the Apple TV thing.
But they're still killing it with the phones.
But, you know, some other things.
I've been looking at some of this, you know, macro picture stuff and people talking about
stagflation of tariffs. And I keep digging into the hard data and I don't see any of this real,
you know, concerning weakness in the market. So that's just another sort of, you know,
backdrop thing for me that economically, big picture, macro picture, things seem to be improving.
So it's hard for me to get bearish, even though I'm coming into my seasonal week period.
Look at these home builders, Jeff.
What about?
Looking good.
Yeah.
Moving off the lows, right?
I think that's my thinking about the barometer from an economic technical perspective.
Seeing those kind of recover has been helpful in my eyes.
I think that's important.
We want to see some of the ISM and manufacturing stuff pick up as well.
But there's always going to be some weak spots.
With what's going on on the world stage and a lot of things have changed in the last few weeks since I've been on.
I mean, I finished up the 26th Almanac, so we got that going for us.
I just, I'm really having trouble getting negative in the market.
You know one thing that's changed since the last time you've been on, Jeff?
Every kid in America gets $1,000 in the S&P 500.
Exactly.
That's not bearish, is it? I don't think it is. it is no i mean we got a couple trade deals iran's kind of you know uh dealt with uh well to be fair we've gotten letters and we've gotten
in principle we've gotten move deadlines but you know what isn't? We actually have a lot of smoke and mirrors,
and I think that's the side maybe weighing us down.
This $5 trillion thing, it's been talked about maybe on Twitter a lot
from the perspective of what it's going to do to our country
and blah, blah, blah, what it means, not blah, blah, blah.
But I mean, the perspective of stocks, I mean,
inflation is good for these assets,
and these are probably going to be some of the winners,
i.e. every single American child is about to buy SPY.
A lot of Apple, a lot more financial engineering going on.
Maybe even favors a lot of the biggest stocks in America, too.
One of the things that's been talked about among the technicians, I think Larry will attest to this, is a lot of the indicators, the advanced decline stuff, the new highs, new lows are changing.
They have to be adjusted because there's just so much less stocks out there.
It's about half as many as there were 10 years ago or so, or not even.
So there's more ETFs than stocks.
It's a different world.
Sorry to keep interrupting you, but if we keep going up like this, I promise you, more stocks are coming.
Yeah, but we're still not going to double.
They just might all be Bitcoin treasuries and random other stuff.
They'll probably just be ETFs.
They'll probably just be ETFs, yep.
I heard you're launching a Bitcoin treasury.
Hey, listen, I can do better than some of these other ones.
We're looking for contributors. I wouldn't take on Tom Lee, listen. I can do better than some of these other ones. We're looking for contributors.
I wouldn't take on Tom Lee, though.
Raise your hand on stage if you'd like to contribute to Evan's Bitcoin.
Wow, two hands already.
Evan, you're in good hands.
Dang.
Deepak, it's too.
I've heard how they're doing this year.
If you have anything else?
I'll let Jeff finish.
I'll go after.
I was just kind of checking in with stuff here.
I mean, the one last
season thing, you know, we have our NASDAQ
best eight months, kind of like the
best six months, you know, the sell MA
strategy, and
we used MACD for a trigger
on that. We started looking for a sell on nasdaq
uh june 1st but we came into the month with the macd uh negative the 12 26 nights we had to wait
for it we had we had to wait for it to go positive before it crosses over again and um we finally did
that but we are here getting closer to a signal. So I'll definitely shift my, you know, tactical switching strategy portfolio portion into the more bonds or just put it in the cash and follow it.
But so that's just the update on that. We're waiting for that trigger.
And definitely feel free to jump in on the conversation, you or anyone else.
Logical. I am looking at my all-time high list right now there's a stock called Verona Pharma I've never oh let's go babies and yeah how about we check out XBI it's I actually have that filtered
by 10 billion as well so I don't know if this was a mid cap before and now it's moving higher or
something I mean obviously it's moving higher it's on the all-time high list. What's happening? Merck buying out that company for $10 billion,
which has interesting pros and cons. Well, it's mostly pros. Obviously, with Merck buying this
stock, buyouts are good for the sector. It's what I've been talking about. Everything's
really cheap in BioLand. So it helps people think, okay, you know, the reinvestment cycle is here, but Merck just spent $10 billion. So a lot of these, you know, $1 billion, $2 billion, $500 million companies, there's $10 billion now less in deal flow.
bio funds now have billions of dollars to reallocate to all these other opportunities
and right now you're seeing xbi reflect that it's up 3.5 today on above average volume
um look i know i was early to this trade and oftentimes uh early um you know is often like
being wrong but you know when you feel that there's value fundamental value these stocks
are trading at cash value they have insane upside, there's commercial launches and their drugs, etc. You know, there's a lot of upside that's just being
basically calculated for $0, actually, in some cases, negative enterprise values. So it's something
that I've been talking about, like, you have to incorporate, I think, fundamentals at some extent,
yes, the technicals looked horrible. But horrible but you know when everything is basically going
right for a theme then the sentiment is extremely positive which is reflected in the valuation
when everything is going wrong for a theme then the sentiment is extremely pessimistic which is
also reflected in the valuation so sentiment is what drives valuation and if you can take the
other side of that bet that you you know, I think that these stocks
are way too cheap, then you can probably end up doing pretty well.
And I don't think you get that opportunity too often.
But I think that this entire sector is set to like light up from here, which is what
I've been calling for for a long time.
And I think we're starting to see green shoots.
We priced in all of these assets at extremely low valuations, because they thought the FDA was going to be big scary under the, you know, RFK or the new
FDA commissioners or blah, blah, blah. But they keep coming out and saying no, they're very aware,
by the way, that Chinese biotech is trying to, you know, surpass us. And right now, I feel like
it's the US China Cold War or something. And they want to be, you know, us and right now i feel like it's the the us china cold war or
something and they want to be you know make sure that they're ahead of things and so they're
actually speeding up review timelines at the fba they're becoming way more accommodative for you
know these rare diseases orphan drugs are actually excluded from the pharma tariffs. I mean, there's just so many things that they're doing to basically
motivate innovation in the sector.
So and just in time for us to have basically dumped these stocks to all time
lows, and if you think about it from a positioning standpoint, everyone has
already sold these stocks in other situations.
No offense to anyone that's about their bull.
Obviously, they've done really well.
I don't have to apologize to you but um you know versus where the sentiment
is extremely high and everyone has already bought stock so i think positioning wise you know you
have this interesting stuff um larry also i just wanted to call out i saw your archer chart and
obviously you know stock talk and i have watched that ticker for a while and i i won't lie i i saw
your chart and i i agree with you it looks extremely great, ACHR. I took a punt on that today. So hopefully we can see some consolidation
and following of like the Joby strength. But look, this has been an insanely great market if you're
in the right names, right? Like SPY is, okay, it's up 50 bips on the day-to-day now. So that's
actually pretty good. But it was, you know, down closer to flat at some point.
My portfolio is up 5.2%.
My overall performance is back above 70% year-to-date.
It's just freaking phenomenal.
And a lot of that comes down to stock picking.
And Larry mentioned it, you know, microcaps up.
That's my bread and butter.
I'm a small cap guy.
A lot of my names are small caps
uh you know everyone's paying attention to the mega caps and whatnot but i don't think this is
the year of mega caps 23 was the year of mega caps 2024 was the name uh the year for popular growth
stocks and i think 2025 is shaping up to be basically everything else and a lot of times
when people give me the argument of like oh how could this be a bull market there's no breath
and i always respond with, isn't that opportunity?
Doesn't it mean that we're still early in this bull market?
Because it is pretty typical for a new bull market for having leaders lead.
If you recall back in 2023, it was all of the Mag7 driving like 85% of the performance of the S&P.
percent of the performance of the SMP. I mean, they were up 100% as a basket, whereas most other
I mean, they were up 100% as a basket.
stocks were sitting at their lows for all of 2023 until maybe the tail end in like that October
where we got the Fed meeting where they said they're going to cut rates. So you have a situation
where breadth can expand and that's what we're seeing. And so to me, that's opportunity and
bullishness and we could start seeing rotation under the hood. And so what would be great is for the market cap weighted like spy to chug along, but there's
rotation under underneath.
So that's a great map market backdrop, I think.
And in crypto, I think I wrote this up in my note in mid-May and like with crypto, it
could be the same thing.
Bitcoin can do really well from here.
It can go higher and do its next leg.
But what would be extremely bullish is if you saw Bitcoin dominance come down.
So you could actually look up that chart on TradingView.
And Bitcoin dominance is the market cap of Bitcoin divided by the total crypto market cap.
So, you know, extremely bullish situation is Bitcoin up, Bitcoin dominance down.
And that would tell you that risk on and speculation and breadth expansion
in crypto markets as well as equity markets um and you're still seeing all these data points around
like basically hedge funds are um you know in a still bearish positioning so here's the thing
right people are like oh well you know these guys are the smartest guys in the world and um you know
if they're bearish then you know why do you think you're gonna do better it's like well if they're
already bearish and they're already in their bearish positioning, then who's left to sell?
So, I mean, isn't there just more people that can still buy this market if they've already sold?
So that's kind of how I think about positioning as well.
But obviously, we're going to have pullbacks along the way, which would be totally normal.
I think I just saw a stat today that said we're on one of the longest streaks for SPY to be above the 20-day.
So seeing a little bit of a rest at the market cap weighted index and getting a little bit of a pullback, that'd be totally fine.
We are definitely overheated, but I still see a ton of value in this market, and I can't keep loading up more stock personally.
Larry, you have your hand up.
Yeah, I was just going to say Archer do like that name name i'm also looking at the reason i got on
that name was gorilla technology g r r r similar setup and it actually broke out today uh probably
a different space i'm not familiar with gorilla tech uh just as i feel like i saw them having a
video story today is what that was maybe yeah but? Yeah. So I think Archer can follow.
But I do want to piggyback on the breadth conversation really quickly just from a technical perspective.
And someone who studied it just more than what maybe you'll see from layman's online, you can look at, say, a few things.
One, you can look at new highs minus new lows. So 52-week
highs minus 52-week lows. And all of this data, I will say, is as of Friday because we had two
down days, Monday, Tuesday. But we were up eight of the prior nine days before the two down days
we had back-to-back. And for that Thursday holiday day, we had year-to-date highs in NASDAQ as a composite, the index,
new highs minus new lows, had new year-to-date highs. So did the S&P 500. So did the NYSE
stock exchange. So I think the theory around breadth is centered around AD lines and a few
other things that aren't as... People are confusing, for lack of a better word,
people are confusing confirmation from breath
with weak breath, right?
So breath is lagging, but it's not weak.
It's actually improving overall.
And so it's just funny
because people don't look at the data.
Another data point, if we're talking about breath,
percent above 20-day moving averages,
you have 80%, 80% of the S&P 600 small caps above their 20-day. You have 80% of mid-caps above their 20-day.
You have 75% of large caps above their 20-day. You look at the 50-day, 78% of small caps are above their 50 day 79% of mid caps are above their 50 day
74% of large caps are above their 50 day
So I think the breadth story
I like it because you need future buyers
And you need a wall of worry to climb
But I think to Logic's point
One of my worries is that I don't have that many
And I know that sounds crazy to say on a space. I should be this wise, sage person that's, I'm cautiously optimistic. But looking at that data, it's like we're exploding. three months, you might see a pullback, but I think the context for that pullback with all
these things rocketing the way they are is that that pullback will become an opportunity. And what
you might also see, which would be beautiful, is the mega caps correct and breath do well.
So something you can look at RSP versus the S&P 500. RSP is S&P 500 equal weight. You can also look at EQWL, which is the S&P 100 equally weighted.
And fun fact for you, S&P 100 equally weighted, the S&P 100 makes up 70% of the S&P 500. The 100
names make up 70% of the index. So breadth is really a want for the market. It's not a need
anymore because we have such concentration in
the mega cap names, right? So think about it this way. It's a logical fallacy when people say breath
is really important. And then in the second sentence, they say the market is super concentrated,
right? When you, the more concentrated the S&P 500 is, it literally means mathematically
breath is less important for it to move. So those are just some of the
contexts and things I think that some people talk about breath from a perspective of not
understanding the context of it and not understanding it's improved a lot. It was
just lagging. And what are we seeing now? We're seeing small cats. We're seeing regional banks.
We're seeing that breath expand. And then what are people going to do? They're going to get
bearish because maybe the mega caps correct, or maybe they don't, but that was just some of the
context I wanted to provide around breadth. I agree with logic there. It also, if you think
breadth is Brad, it gives the market room to run. That's another thought too. Yeah, exactly what I
was basically saying. And look, you know, IWM just now broke up, broke out above the 200 day. And I don't really care for the IWM.
But look, this stock, this index is basically flat on a one year basis. It's I don't care what
people say. But we are definitely not overextended. Like all we've seen is sideways chopping
consolidation for the longest period. And, And the administration has told you they are going to get rates down,
and they're going to get rates way down.
So equity markets always move ahead of that.
And so that's probably why you're going to start to see continued strength.
I mean, if they're really talking about 1% Fed fund rate,
I don't think people are prepared for how much higher we're going to go at this point,
especially in these regionals and biotechs and small caps.
Can I ask Jeff a quick question? I'm here. 98. Do you have any analogs you're currently using for right now? I'm just curious. And then second question, two questions, that one. And then
secondly, how does small cap and micro cap seasonality kind of pair to the normal,
right, peak in July type of seasonality?
Those are my two. I'll answer that first. The small cap, you know, mid cap peak in July runs
right with NASDAQ. I mean, we hold the IWM and the QQQs for our NASDAQ best eight months. So
they run very close together. i even have some research where
you see a best nine you know nine months for um the small cap starting even a little bit earlier
like october so um but you know to your point before uh or maybe not to it completely we're
still lagging i mean uh the the iwms whatever have had a great run since the April 8th, but it's still below the twin peak tops from late 21 and early 25,
or was it late, late 24?
So there's still some issues there.
Analog question 98.
You know, I'm a four-year cycle guy. So 98 is not a post election year.
I think there's a there's a, you know, consideration there. 98 is not one of the analogs that I'm looking at currently, but it's something worth considering.
I'm always looking for other ways to think of things. I think the sort of weaker post election year for Republicans pattern was rearing its head for quite some time.
That seems to be dissipated a little bit.
As for the breath you were talking about, Larry, I just wanted to comment on that.
You know, a month, excuse me, two weeks ago in our July outlook, when we do our pulse
of the market, which is, you know, runs a lot of stats that come out of the back of
the Almanac, you know, indicator trackers.
You know, we've got the New York Stock Exchange advanced declines and highs and lows on a weekly basis.
We look at that. They were kind of, you know, struggling.
It was there were a few more decliners than advancers that that week ending June 20th.
You know, 1400 versus 1300 and highs were 137 and lows were 106.
But over the past couple of weeks, as you have pointed out,
that has improved considerably.
So I think that catch-up is happening.
You know, it remains to be seen if it fizzles out with this seasonal weakness but uh yeah 98 i don't really see that as a
comparison but um i'll have a look
bitcoin's flying so i'll take five percent of the credit for bringing up
that conversation good work team
thanks jeff for the input yeah i need to do more about 98 too but I was just curious I'm gonna look
at it while I take the mic off and yeah um 111 I know that's what I was saying we're moving higher
Ethereum also I might have gotten a text from Emp who's a little busy right now so that's probably
what he would have interjected with there. If you want the full
truth, but yeah.
I'm sure.
Martin, we haven't gone your way yet.
How are you doing, sir?
Have you any thoughts on the conversation?
Yeah, I'm good.
I agree with a lot
what was said.
In regards to Brett,
the market's been fairly focused in, you know, seven, eight names for quite a long time.
Eventually, though, this breadth does start to spread out as we do push to the upside.
And then it gets kind of sucked back in.
And that's when you get those really big parabolic moves.
But, you know, what I'm seeing right now, especially in the last couple of weeks, I mean, obviously, we've all been aware of kind of what's going on the small cap land iw i'm starting to break out it
does have quite a bit of room to the upside here you know they tend to say that's kind of the last
straw of a bullish market but it's not really what i'm looking i think you know everything's
healthy looks good technically um you know all these semiconductors are set up for the next leg
and the way that i kind of look at the market now is you know you start semiconductors are set up for the next leg and the way that i
kind of look at the market now is you know you start to see the semis move and then after the
semis move you get the uh the mag 7 moving and then you tend to get the mega cap uh tech and
then from there it trickles into the lower or sorry the higher beta smaller cap tech the mid
cap tech which we haven't even really seen those names move yet. I think what's notable today is
this biotech kind of breakout. There's a ton of names off the lows that look pretty good.
If you just scan for names that evaluation that are trading at whatever cash or assets
to market cap, you're going to see a ton of small cap names in that realm. Some that are even profitable or generating some form of income.
So I think there's not really too many multiples in that sector.
And, you know, you're starting to see some nice consolidation sector names getting taken
out.
I think that's probably a sector that could get hot again.
I don't really remember the last time it was hot, maybe like 2019 2019 2018 is when we really had a hot biotech
market which is great trading um so it's something that i can keep an eye on uh going forward you
know it's funny we have when we got when you guys were talking about the crypto name bitcoin broke
out mstr coin have been trading those to the upside since Power Hour started. And, you know, I think on the crypto side, I think there's a lot of leg behind all these treasury companies.
And we saw most of these treasury companies be formed, let's call it like a month to a month and a half ago.
And that's going to continue and they're going to continue to add to their assets.
A lot of them are trading below NAV like, I don't know, two weeks ago.
I picked up some of this like
upx i for instance at 280 it's at 460 or 430 or wherever the hell it's at now i spent as well but
my point there being is there's a leg behind you know what what these guys are announcing in terms
of how much they're buying and the actual move in the crypto um uh you know the coins themselves so
i think that's going to continue and continue to be a nice bullish kind of catalyst for crypto
going forward.
And I think you're going to see a bigger leg up in the short term than I think expected.
And I think you're going to see a lot of these names squeeze as well.
You know, keep an eye on for sure coin on the daily chart.
That thing looks like it's going to take up those recent range highs, potentially the
next couple of days.
And it's got quite a bit of room through 400s.
You know, it's hard to get bearish on anything right now.
I think keep an eye on some of the sectors with cheaper valuation.
And, you know, don't throw all your eggs in those baskets.
But I think you take charters on those positions and you watch for them to
increase in terms of liquidity. And then when you start to see momentum pour into those names,
you can get into really nice risk reward trades that's fairly cheap. You've got to be very
strategic in regards to where you put your capital though. There's a lot of momentum in this market.
There's a lot of relative strength, especially this week that you need to search for. The best
way to do
that is you know look at the market have a list of you know a ton of mega cap names in different
sectors and you can see pretty easily when you're looking at the spy and then looking at
your little watch list which ones are outperforming and then you tend to see nice continuation on
those i've also noticed in the last week and a half two weeks relative volume is becoming
increasingly important on the algal side.
So when you see a company with a bubble one and sustained relative volume right up to gate, they tend to get continuation the entire day.
So it's one of the things I've been screening for on the day trading side.
It's been working tremendously well.
If you're an auction's trader, you can do the exact same thing.
Look at the big caps, screen for that relative volume.
Anything breaking out on the daily early on in the morning is getting a ton of continuation.
You get to some really nice opportunities there.
But yeah, I mean, in general, I think market looks, you know, fine, healthy.
Probably get a breakout into the end of the week is what I'm thinking.
I think the semiconductors are going to be the key for the market breaking the next,
getting the next leg higher, and then we'll watch the mega caps follow suit.
So, yeah, that's kind of what I'm thinking at the moment.
All right.
I think we got a stock talk.
Who might have made some moves today?
We also want to see it before the open as well.
You make any moves today, sir?
Mr. Talk?
Yes, I did make some moves.
I'll go over
just some other stuff that's going on later,
but yeah, I did add
some Coursera here just about
30, 40 minutes ago, actually.
Well, not even 30, 40 minutes ago, like
20 minutes ago.
Ticker C-O-U-R. Mystic
shared this idea on Twitter, and then I
went and looked at what he was saying,
and I think he's right.
First of all, the chart looks great.
It's been broke over the 200-day moving average back end of April, going into May.
Has been consolidating above since.
50-day found its way for Golden Cross, started June.
Has held the 200 200 days since then. And then today,
921 started poking up into the 50 and price pushed over it. And I think that's no coincidence
because this morning, Microsoft announced a $4 billion commitment to AI education.
And Coursera is the only mid cap that has any relevancy to that at all
uh mystic just popped it into his llm and turns out they have 15 open collaborations on ai
education with microsoft i mean it's like a 1.6 billion market cap and they just committed 4
billion of spend feels like a no-brainer based on the charge so i just opened that at 872 a little
bit it's sort of running here into the close but but I think that'll get found. So yeah, I did open that like not even today, just like 20 minutes
ago. But outside of Corsair, a lot of stuff was just beautiful today. I've been talking about the
short interest basket that I've been holding. And the thesis behind that has really been just having my exposure to multiple different industries and thematics with high short interest mid caps.
That's really been the idea behind that basket.
And I've picked nine names over the course of the last month and a half and built that basket.
And today was just a fantastic day for those names.
Bloom Energy was one of those names.
I also tweeted the chart out of this in June,
talking about how it was 25% short and building beautifully.
And then this morning, JPMorgan raised their price target
on Bloom Energy to $33, and we were positioned for that.
Stock ripped today, up 20%.
It's going to close up about 18%.
We entered at $20 less than a month ago,
2060 stock almost at 30 today. I dumped most of my contracts and most of my shares today.
That's the move I was looking for. I was actually looking for a 25 target on this trade. So it blew
past my target. I have so many open positions right now that I feel no shame in just getting
out of the trade here. Do I think it goes higher? Yeah. I saw a ton of 35 flow. I think a lot of stocks,
you know, I like a lot of stocks for continuation after I sell them. It's not always about thinking
the run is over. Sometimes it's merely a matter of position management. You have a lot of other
stocks, you have other higher conviction positions you'd rather allocate to, or maybe there's other stocks that you want to add to that you want to generate
buying power before. It's not always a binary decision based on, I don't think this stock can
go up anymore. But anyway, yeah. So I am getting out of bloom today after what was a monster trade
on that one. CRISPR, which we got into more recently and is also part of the high short
interest basket. Basically the barometers I looked for when i built this basket was stocks that recently emerged above their 200 day
moving averages on higher than average volume many of them did so on their highest weekly volumes
ever which is what made a lot of them stand out candidates for the basket but stocks that are
newly emerging over their 200 day moving average above all of their shorter-term EMAs,
so 921 EMA. I like to treat it as like a band. Some people treat it as like a cloud.
There's like a 921 EMA cloud function that Ripster came up with. But however we want to look at it,
I look at stocks that are above their 921 EMA with the 921 EMA pointing up that have recently
emerged above the 200-day moving average on high volume,
very high volume, preferably. And they have over 25% short interest. So if stocks met those
qualifications technically, and also met my subjective qualifications, as far as themes
and catalysts are concerned, then they made the list and I bought them and I just waited. And one by one, these names have exploded to the upside. So Bloom today, also CRISPR,
not even just today over this last week. I mean, I've been in the 50 calls. Those are now deep in
the money. Stock's pushing 60 bucks today. CRISPR up 8.74% has not moved as much as some
of the smaller cap names in that gene editing space like prime or um you know
sauna or even like pgen today up 13 but it has moved consistently and i think has been has
traded a little bit more cleanly and has been easier to stay in and so crisper made a beautiful
move today as well riot which we upsized recently with the 11 calls and shares that's up six percent
today um i think if Bitcoin continues
through this trend, I think Riot is going to be one of those stocks that because it got so
pigeonholed in this Bitcoin mining narrative and it got treated like a Bitcoin mining business,
people have just overlooked the amount of raw assets they have. They are a top five Bitcoin holder. They have a massive, massive HPC facility
that can be repurposed with a snap of a finger. They have compute assets that are worth significantly
more than $4.5 billion if you take the core's $9 billion floating valuation, which it is a
floating valuation because we don't know where CoreWi is going to close the year. But if you
take that into any consideration, Riot's worth significantly more. So Riot's one of the horses
I've picked. Cypher is another one. Cypher has been a monster for us too. It's green again today,
seems to have no relent in that stock. We touched on this one a couple of weeks ago,
but I opened it up at 428 a couple of weeks ago. Stock's trading in the sixes now.
You don't see volume profiles like that often. It's not very often that a stock, a couple billion market cap like Cypher,
sets a highest volume every day, then another highest volume every day,
then another highest volume every day, and does it five sessions in a row.
I've traded SMID caps for over a decade, and I do not see that often.
I can't even think of the last
time I saw it. And I look at hundreds and hundreds of stocks. So I just haven't sold any of it.
Maybe I'm stupid. Maybe it's like, you know, maybe I should take profits of 40. I'm up 45%
on the equity in two weeks. In any other scenario, I would be a seller. But the volume is just too
high. Like either someone knows something or like, I don't know.
I just can't ignore that volume profile on Cypher.
So I remain in that one too.
And maybe I'm playing with fire here.
I'll probably end up giving some back.
I doubt I'm going to sell the top on that thing,
but I just can't sell into volume like that.
You know, five straight sessions of highest ever volume.
And then even today on like a slower day for those names,
it's still posting another 45 million volume.
You're talking about a stock with a 260 million share float
that's traded over 400 million shares in two weeks.
Like what's going on?
You know, IREN and all these others like Riot,
they've had high volume too, but nothing close to that.
Like nothing remotely close to that where the entire free float
is getting churned in
a couple of sessions. So it keeps working and the volume is crazy. So I just don't see a reason to
sell it. And again, probably playing with fire. But even if I give back a little bit on that,
like up 45% in shares on two week, that's a, that's a cushion that, you know, is easy to deal
with. Like if I end up giving back back 10 on those shares or even 15 on
those shares like i'm okay with that so yeah i'm sticking with cypher having a monster day riot
having a monster day like i mentioned uh kratos just goes up every day i'm just kind of tired of
talking about it but kratos is our biggest aerospace and defense position it just is relentless in this
market and i think rightfully so you know aero environment recently had a big sell-off for those who don't have aerospace and defense exposure i think that there's an opportunity
there for avav it's had a low volume sell-off after a monster move um i'm not adding it because
i have enough aerospace and defense exposure but i do think kratos is still the best in breed
um and you know these sort of trends don't last a few months. Like I've been talking about aerospace and defense for over a year.
These stocks just keep going up every month.
And there's a reason for it is because in my view, and this has been the thesis the whole time, the Ukraine war and this sort of new age of defense have both simultaneously demonstrated that highly specialized weapon systems that are produced not through legacy means where you get a contract and produce it, but produced in house by these smaller firms, specialized, you know, futuristic defense this like eight or nine months ago, how it may only be five or 10% of the allocation that goes to the legacy guys initially.
But that's hundreds of billions of dollars globally.
Bitcoin is still ripping new all-time highs.
Yeah, Bitcoin's ripping and these Bitcoin mining players just keep ripping after.
Let's go!
But yeah, that's great to see.
But yeah, a lot of stuff performing today.
The last thing I'll touch on is Genius, which had a very nice session today.
This weekly chart is just, I don't know.
I don't know if it gets prettier on Genius.
But I mean, this stock's obviously been in a multi-year uptrend.
It's come a long way off the lows.
A lot of people look at that and say like the opportunity has been depleted.
I think the opposite i think the story has gotten dramatically better here at ten dollars
a share than it was at five dollars a share and sometimes that happens sometimes it's not just
the price of the stock going up which we see a lot of especially in this kind of market and
the momentum chasing market but sometimes it's a material improvement in the business and the
picture of the business and i think that's exactly what's happened with genius over the past few years you know speaking of highest volume ever
candles and i covered the thesis on genius here on this spaces a few weeks ago uh for those that
missed that spaces you can go listen to recording if you want i don't remember which one it was but
i also wrote a longer form tweet on it and i pinned that on the top if you want to go read it
if you don't remember me talking about this uh when I talked about it a couple of weeks ago.
But June 12th is when you talked about it.
June 12th.
There you go.
So you can go back and listen to the recording from June 12th if you want.
So this is a former SPAC, right?
And like a lot of former SPACs, it ran really hard either pre or post post merger, and then tanked post merger, right? And
that's what happened to this one, too, you know, around to the 25 area from that $10 nav floor,
and then went all the way down to two bucks. And a lot of SPACs did that and went out of business.
In fact, most of them did, or got delisted, or they're trading at 80 cents today. But genius
over the course of the last several years, climbed its way out of the hole,
not just through price action, but through genuine improvement in the business. Their
earnings have dramatically improved. Their revenue has dramatically improved. There's a company
that's expecting through 2030 to post a 36% EPS kegger. That's pretty good. And I don't think the multiple is pricing that.
Like, I think this business is priced as a sports betting business.
And I think that is an error. And I think the chart tells you that, too, because not only have we recovered significantly off the lows over several years,
but we're pushing now over this ten10 spot into an explosive area of range where
the stock can see, in my opinion, 15 quickly.
And so I'm positioned for it.
It's one of my largest positions.
I've been talking about it for a while.
It's starting to work now.
I'm sure there's going to be a lot of people now who buy it today and it goes down 1% and
they're like, what's going on?
And they ask me a million questions, but it's a longer term position for me.
I think the story, everything is lining up in terms of story, catalyst, NFL deal renewal.
The NFL is the single largest shareholder.
The NFL owns like no other stocks.
I think they only have like a small stake in skills, which is like going out of business.
But other than that, they have no file a 13F.
I don't know.
I don't know if they did or didn't.
I don't know if they do or don't, but they don't need to disclose the stake yet because it's 9%. But anyway, yeah, I just think
everything's lining up. It lines up technically, fundamentally. So that's just a position where
if it goes down, I will just probably buy more. If it comes anywhere near the back to the 960s,
I would just buy more. So yeah genius starting to work you know like always
when i bring stocks up on on these spaces you know i'm talking about them very often after i
bought them because if you're in my community then you know when i buy them but if you're not
then you probably hear about them late you don't have to buy stuff if you like what i'm saying
right when i talk about it you know wait for smart entries stuff pulls back you know learn how to
read a chart if you don't first things first but know, learn how to read a chart if you don't.
First things first.
But once you learn how to read a chart, you know, wait for technically supported entry.
Wait for stocks to pull back or whatever, depending on whatever they've been respecting,
their 921 EMA clusters or their 50-day moving averages or whatever area they've been respecting historically,
just scroll through the chart and wait for a pullback into that area and take a stab if it doesn't work you've a
clearly defined area of risk if it does great you're in the trade for life
really that's by the way oh Apple looking nice into the clothes I'm just I
someone just someone had to say it not yeah but yeah that's it new position in
Coursera everything else in the portfolio pretty much working only thing
that was down for us today meaningfully was Embraer. ASPS is a relatively smaller position for me too, but that was down today too.
But Embraer, that was down today. Trump threatened Brazil tariff, so that thing got smack. But I'm
mostly in leaps and shares on that. Leaps are like $30 cost average. It doesn't matter. I'm
not really worried about it. But yeah, that stock will probably see some continued pressure
if this Brazil tariff conversation heats up.
It's obviously a Brazilian company.
But outside of that, everything's working.
So nice day for me, just hanging out
and just enjoying the spoils of good stock picking.
But what I will say is that I do think people right now
are feeling anxious because they feel like there's a lot of potential uncertainties on the table in the second half of the year.
I think the easiest way to navigate that, if you are sitting in these spaces and you listen to all the conversations we have about different macro risks in different industries, the easiest way to navigate that is just listen to what the price is telling you.
The price will tell you when to be worried.
They'll pretty clearly tell you when to be worried. And so you don't really have to like decide when you feel worried or you're concerned. Like the market will tell you loudly
like it did in February after the deep seek moment. You know, that was your signal. A lot
of people stuck around in names that got charts that got destroyed post deep seek. And then what happened? Then you had the tariff sell off, which was even worse. A lot of people got destroyed because they didn't pay attention to what the price was telling them. So, you know, just let the price tell you red alarm, you know, and we haven't seen that.
What's up, Larry? Sorry, I saw you weren't.
No, just amen to that. Let price tell you. I agree't seen that. What's up, Larry? Sorry, I saw you weren't. No, just amen to that.
Let price tell you.
I agree.
Love it.
Price is all that matters.
Yeah, like talking about this stuff is fun.
Like I think there's an educational purpose to it.
Like trust me, I engage in the conversations when we have them about the macro or about the risks.
It's nice to know, hey, these things might happen.
know, hey, these things might happen. But where most people fuck up is they try to
inform their trading and investing decisions on those possibilities. That's where you mess up.
Because they're just possibilities. And there's always risks in the market. Even in the most
raging bull markets, there's something could happen. I mean, you don't know. For all you know,
there's something could happen. I mean, you don't know, you know, for all you know, like some rogue
entity somewhere builds a nuke and fires it off randomly in the middle of a massive bull market.
Okay, boom. How, like, how are you gonna, so, so why even concern yourself with that?
Right? Like a logical person would think about what I just said and say, he's right, anything
can happen at any time. So why i attempt to like build a a calculus
of what could happen like i see people modeling recession probabilities like traders and i'm like
what the fuck are you doing like what does that what does that do for you like okay my recession
probability has gone up based on this model using 11 different data sets from 60 to 65%.
Stock talk, even beyond that, dude, first off, that's fucking stupid.
But beyond that.
I saw this on Twitter like three days ago.
I'm not going to say who posted it, but it got a lot of engagement.
It was from somebody with over 100,000 followers.
Dude, we just passed a $5 trillion bill after we have record fiscal deficit spending more than the last
president.
It's impossible.
I'm not as excited about like the whole fiscal party continues on thing as some people are.
Like that's not even my reason to be bullish.
My reason to be bullish is because the price action says be bullish.
You know, I'm not even worried about like, yeah, the fiscal thing is great.
The fiscal tailwind is great.
The $1,000 for every kid in America, like all this stuff isn't bad. Um, it's, it's certainly not bearish, but
I don't even really contextualize, um, broader news about the market at all anymore.
I'm just like, okay, this happened. This might happen. If it happens, we'll cross that bridge
when we come to it and we'll manage the risk accordingly.
But, you know, are you going to give some profits back in those moments? Yes.
Are you going to lose some money in those moments? Yes. That's part of the fucking game.
Like you're not going to just nail everything that ever happens in the market. Right.
And even these guys who write 45 page dissertations and post them on Twitter about like when they think the next recession is coming.
five page dissertations and post them on Twitter about like when they think the next recession is
coming. They're never consistently right. Like tell me one of them that has ever called
recessions consistently. None of them do. Not a single solitary one. And then certainly if they
do, they're never on time. So what's the point? Like what is the point of all of that? Like
nothing. The point is nothing. Just focus on your individual stocks and your holdings.ings watch the price action let it tell you when to be worried and let it tell you
when to be bullish and for the last three years straight it's been saying buy buy buy buy buy buy
buy buy buy and so you know until it stops saying that you just keep dancing like
risk is a function of of of like your actual decisions and allocation, you know, if you are if you want to be risk averse, then hedge your positions.
You know, if you want to be very risk averse, then allocate them small and hedge them like you can you can dial in the risk as low as you want it.
You know, you can use spreads instead of naked options.
You can use hedges.
You can use individual stock hedges.
You can use ETF hedges.
You can, you know, like there's a million ways
to manage risk on a position
if you are worried about these things
and you're more of a conservative person.
I'm not.
I'm, you know, balls to the wall
in terms of taking risk when I'm confident.
But if you are a more conservative person, you don't have to approach the market in that way. You can still participate in the market
and be engaged and, you know, be in a more conservative position if that's, if that suits
you, you know, it's better than not being in the market at all. And what a lot of people have,
frankly, screwed up on in the last three or even five years is letting those things scare them
out letting the stories scare them out not the price action but the stories right and you just
shouldn't allow that to happen as a trader investor you should like you know listen what the price of
the names that you own is telling you listen to what the price of the names that you own is telling you. Listen to what the price of the index is telling you. Don't listen to what people are telling you.
People are biased, and they're wrong a lot.
And price is rarely wrong.
So, yeah, just stick to your guns.
Can I chime in on some of this wonderful lesson stuff that we're hearing here?
Of course.
You can chime in any time you want, Jeff.
All right.
All these things you're talking about,
who's that talking?
Logical?
Is that who that was?
Stock talk.
That was stock talk.
I'm sorry.
You're good.
Your voice got less deep as you were talking,
so I forgot.
I guess you cleared your throat.
But all of this price behavior stuff is in the back of the Stock Traders' Almanac. All these lessons, this performance of recommendations by who recommended it and what happened to it. If you don't profit from survival checklist stuff, the battle plan. It's all relevant.
There's weekly indicator, you know, record keepers,
your own portfolio price record keeper,
which is what Stock Talk was just saying.
You know, you keep track of what your own portfolio is doing,
what your own stocks are doing,
and it's going to tell you what's going down
and what's not working, you know?
So I don't know.
Some of that stuff still works.
Yeah, exactly.
Especially in a market where rotation is happening, you really notice it.
Right?
Yeah, go for it.
Sorry, there's some news out, but it's a small cap bio.
Stock Talk, you've traded this one before.
That PSNL personalist, that baby baby tempest ai that i've been talking about
announced expansion and extension of strategic collaboration with tempest ai new adding new
indication colorectal cancer up 15 after hours uh they're expanding their commercial agreement
dude fuck yeah let's go sorry go on damn that's great. Yeah, you've killed that one.
That one's just done nothing but go up for you.
I should have stayed in that.
I honestly, like, the only biotech exposure I have right now is CRISPR.
And, yeah, that's it.
I'm pretty light on biotech.
I need maybe to pick some up.
We'll see.
Come on, brother.
Let's go.
I got a lot for you.
Let me know.
By the way, a little bit of other news around like five ten minutes before the
close there was a story that autodesk is looking at maybe acquiring this company called ptc ptc
was up about 17 18 percent autodesk was on two dude the mna news the mna news is picking up like
i mean i know i was just telling everyone to ignore anecdotes and dude you should not make
decisions off this but buybacks to the front
half of the year with me and dan were talking about this yesterday 700 plus billion like and
now you have m&a activity picking up companies buying out biotech's getting bought out now
you have bids coming in what was the other bid something went flying today some uh a power
producer aec or something i saw some news middle of the day.
I don't know.
There was some fucking stock that jumped 20%.
Some mid cap power producer that some larger power producers are interested in buying.
Like AES.
There you go.
AES.
That was it.
But yeah, that thing jumped today on a buyout rumor.
Verve a couple of weeks ago got bought out and then every gene editing name ripped like 150%.
Like those things are not bearish.
When that happens in this type of environment where stocks are 20 to 30% short, in fact, if you just flip through, I don't know, just anybody can do this.
Go find 20 smid cap stocks that you're looking at that
are on a watch list and flip through the short interest. You'll be shocked, or at least I was,
I was doing this last week and in the weekend before when I was building my short interest
basket. And I was just shocked. I just kept flipping through names, 22% short, 25% short,
28% short, 31% short, 26% short. And I'm like, dude, these are all in different industries.
Like it's not even an, it's not even a sector or an area. It's like the pessimism has gotten so
broad on some of these mid cap stocks. Keep in mind, IWI'm flat over what last four years,
five years flat. And so the pessimism has gotten so bad on some of these like m and a pack activity picks
up in a couple of these industries you get relative peer valuations to have to match that
exactly what happened in gene editing in the last two weeks like go look at any gene editing stock
it's up massively in you know 14 days that happens in a couple more smid cap industries these short interest caps just start blowing off the stuff off the top of these stocks and you see three four weeks of
consecutive short covering that sends these types of stocks 30 40 50 percent higher on equity you
know that's a big deal and then you have that happening you know not only in gene editing now
you have that happening in a bunch of these d dspac names right asts a couple of weeks
ago monster short squeeze move right short interest materially got reduced on that move up rocket lab
same thing you know uh genius which i talked about earlier not high short highly shorted but you know
a lot of these names have started cooking up to the upside now and a lot of them are 20 to 30
shorts you look at the art k basket like k% short. You look at the RK basket, like Cathie Wood's basket,
look at the short interest on those names.
And then look at the RK chart.
Those are not setups that you just look away from.
We got another one for you, actually.
Ferrero Rocher, or whatever it is,
and Nutella is nearing a roughly $3 billion deal
to buy breakfast cereal giant WK Kellogg.
Look at that.
Even cereal is getting bought out.
Look at this.
The Italians.
How do you feel about that?
Does that hurt your American pride?
I love Ferrero Rocher.
Or does that enhance it because they want it?
Of course you do.
I've seen it.
It's a great chocolate, dude.
I'm not hating on Ferrero Rocher.
Dude, one more news update.
Sorry.
Oh, go ahead, Jeff.
Larry, can I just check?
Did you say that 1998, 1998 was the analog you were looking at, right?
Oh, it's not.
Yes, but I just did some more work.
I was probably looking at the wrong year.
I was just going to share the picture with you.
Yeah, I can't remember.
It was a 95.
I can't remember what I was looking at.
I ran some numbers, and I was like, yeah, this looks like crap. It was a 95. I can't remember what I was looking at. I ran some numbers and I was like, yeah, this looks like crap. So it doesn't really correlate
at 98. So anyway, thanks. Larry, you're going to pull in these stats. Maybe I'll ask you this.
Do you know what that stat is that says like since 1981 or something buying at all time highs
has yielded better returns than buying at any other
time of the year did you that's a net favor uh analysis that i've seen yeah it's not yeah it's
basically it beats buy and hold and the only feature of that is essentially that right strength
begets strength which is a feature of an uptrend which which is what the market's been in. So that's really what that is saying. But the other point I will add there that is I'll get the data and then next spaces
we'll talk about it because I do have the data. I just got to find it. So I don't want to misquote
it. But essentially the market doesn't crash from all time highs. So as you mentioned earlier,
price will give you warning signs most of the time.
So if you're a probabilistic person, making an all-time high should be seen as an opportunity, not as a risk.
But yeah, so I'll get that data for the next basis.
But yes, when you buy all-time highs since 81, you do outperform just buying any other day.
Well, now that we have you talking, why don't you just go into
your general thoughts as well? Because I know you've just chimed in on a few of these topics,
but I don't know if you wanted to touch on just the broader market and individual stocks or
whatever you want to touch on. Yeah, I kind of talked about the broader market from a breadth
perspective. I'll just run through a few individual names I like right here. We mentioned ACHR, Archer.
I kind of doing some technical analysis, started to see the rotation underneath the surface when
I saw breath improve, right? Breath basically saying, hey, stocks underneath the surface are
improving and started looking at other areas of the market. So I've had on a, I call it bottom
fishing trade, which is essentially the
home builders. I think even from, I know it's boring, but if you look at the ETF perspective
for ITB and just see the bottoming that it's forming here, this RSI divergence, getting above
a hundred for home construction, I think would be huge. So that's kind of a trade I'm in that I like. I mentioned earlier, Gorilla Technology.
I think that looks great against 20.
Obviously, it's up 14% today.
But you guys, right, you're adults.
You can kind of analyze these stocks as they come.
Something else I've been looking at is doing some pattern analysis.
There's these breakout pullbacks that are looking interesting. And
one of them that I'm taking a look at right now that I added some exposure to was CSEA,
C limited, but the ticker is SE. It's this 150 level. It kind of consolidated here,
breakout retest. So that's another name I'm taking a look at. And then generally speaking,
retest. So that's another name I'm taking a look at. And then generally speaking, I actually have
a decent amount in ETFs for the simple fact is a lot of ETFs have exposure to the fact that we have
rotation and leadership doing well. So I'm just kind of leveraged in ETF spaces because of that.
I think Apple here just needs to continue to do what it's
doing. And it's stuck in between its all-time high AVWAP and its 200-day it's getting above.
I liked that trade last week. I put on some calls and they did really well the first two days and
then they got hammered to start this week. But those are kind of the names individually that I'm looking at.
I really do like, from an ETF perspective,
don't sleep on EQWL, S&P 100 Equal Weight.
It's a beautiful breakout.
I think it looks good.
I do a lot of work around ETFs currently,
just because of some of the names that I like.
Also, you got to take a look at some of these material names,
right? I'm talking about boring stuff here, but look at XLB and tell me that chart doesn't look
pretty. We're above the all-time high AVWAP and we're above the 200-day. We consolidated,
had a base on base, and now this bullish, it's a little tight bull flag that's resolving higher. I like materials against 90, which you guys can look into option chains,
or you can look at the individual names. I don't want to talk about the individual names within
industrial material space because of the space I work in. But I think in general, those areas
of the market continue to do well. Yeah, it's tricky because you need to doubt your doubts in bull
markets and it's very hard to do. And so that's just, I think you can just stay in what you're
in probably to a degree and just manage risk and you don't have to chase some leadership that might
emerge right here. And that's why I think some of the ETFs do a good job of that.
But those are kind of some of the individual names.
Obviously, Rocket Lab, something I think looks good.
Uber looks great.
One trade that didn't work this week that I'm a little annoyed by
is UFC and WWE, ticker TKO, the TKA Group Holding.
That kind of had a failed breakout,
and now it's looking to kind
of recover from its earnings day VWAP. So if TKO can get back above 175, I just think it's a
brilliant business. I think if you can create a sports media company where you know the outcomes
of one side of the business, and then you have the UFC, which at any point can be a genie in a
bottle business, the chart obviously looks great be a genie in a bottle business.
The chart obviously looks great, but just in general, I think the WWE is just a beautiful
business from the perspective of, right, they control the outcomes based on what the fans do.
And as data gets better, they're only going to get better at figuring out what people want.
wants. So yeah, those are some of the names I'm looking at.
So yeah, those are some of the names I'm looking at.
I wanted to call out one more. Another news in BioLand just happened only because there's a lot
of people on Twitter, generalists, et cetera, people retail. I've noticed on this ticker MREO,
retail i've noticed on this ticker mreo it's very popular they had a data down it was negative
minus 42 after hours and their partner rare ultragenyx which has been seeing a ton of call
flow by the way november 55 calls i just saw december calls uh slammed an hour ago which is
tragic and i was literally going to follow them thankfully i exited this
stock after talking to a friend a couple days ago and i just dodged a 30 downside move but
yeah rare is a regular name and so that's just crazy um i think one topic one thing that i'd
note for people who are interested in bios is like when you look up the ticker on Twitter, here's a pro tip.
If you just notice traders and retail people talking about the ticker, probably avoid it like the plague.
You'll save yourself a lot of heartache.
And you should only focus on names where when you look up the ticker,
it's like very serious biotech specialist people on here talking about it.
Cause they're, this isn't,
this isn't a place
where it's like you can just you know throw a dart or you can uh you know buy the chart or it's very
binary so you gotta like really follow the smart folks in here you you gotta have some sort of edge
it's not like studying a business it's unless it's already commercially approved so just that's my tip
for you
appreciate that i want to get over i don't think monstead and wolfie has spoken too much yet and mods i want to come over to you first because wolfie will chime in i know you won't oh tarot
trump announces 50 tariff on brazil i'm seeing that crossing right here what was that what was
the stock we were watching earlier about it was it merc MercadoLibre? It's Argentinian.
Yeah, you're lagging a little, but maybe it was in Briar.
Let me unmute.
No, yeah, you're super choppy.
But let's go over to Montev.
Montev, I'm sure there's some true social posts coming out right now.
It's now making me sign in to view the post, which I'm not going to do.
What's up up Montev?
Were you in the conversation?
Yeah. Yeah. For most part, I caught the conversation. Not, not,
not much that I, that, that I have any disagreement with. I, uh,
you know, I know there's a lot of stocks,
irrespective of how bullish the narrative is. Uh, you know, when, when,
when, uh, I have massive profits, I do start to hedge or take profits, depending on how I feel.
I am taking profits. The recent ones, I took much of my Oracle position off. I took some of my Arista position off today.
my aristoposition of today i will uh i i have also sold out a little bit more of my nvidia today
i will probably start selling coinbase soon those are all you know the options are up you know
few multiples and the stocks themselves are up you know i have both in all of them
you know are up significantly so i'm starting to take
profits there not that i feel anything negative but you know i'm just locking in some gains
um other than that uh let's see um oh we i'm sure you know we mentioned google going to zero or
search business dying today for sure because that that always comes up every, you know, 15 hours on, on X. Somebody always brings that up.
Today was an interesting day of it though, because we had, um, perplexity launched their comment browser, which can kind of early beta. One thing that I did think was interesting that I saw, it's actually a fork of Google Chrome right now.
So I don't know.
I'm sure the long term of that isn't necessarily wanting to do that.
But I thought that was a little bit interesting.
Maybe not as bearish as we thought.
But also, I did see Google stocking a little bit more when OpenAI came out and said that they might be thinking about doing something.
It always does, right?
It's been a narrative problem, not a real problem.
I mean, Google search business is growing at over 9%.
The rest of Google's business is growing at many multiples of that.
So obviously, I've disclosed your very large position, so I am biased.
But yeah, every time there's a news item from OpenAI or any of the others,
it's instantly moved to, oh, Google's going to zero.
Here's one more confirmation of that silliness.
Anyway, that was more tongue-in-cheek comment rather than anything serious again we're days
from earnings uh you know kicking off fully so that that that becomes really interesting to me
um a lot of questioning about um about uh amazon's um you know prime day event again you know four
days versus two days. So people are
probably just buying slower because they have more time to buy. We will see at the end of four
days if there's a problem. But if you go into, you know, expectations, consumer discretionary,
this, you know, expectation that earnings growth will be negative year over year for consumer discretionary.
So the expectations are not all that high.
So it's, again, I've been saying this so many times, 5.8% overall earnings growth on a 3.7% revenue growth is not that difficult, you know, a hill to climb.
revenue growth is not that difficult uh you know a hill to climb and given that we've not had the
economy breakdown in that you know in the quarter that just uh you know that that that we're talking
about right the second quarter do expect significant beats uh you know what remains to be seen is is
how the guidance holds up so so looking back things should be just fine so quarter earnings
i don't see a problem and i do expect to you know pick up um stocks if if they pull back
as long as you know the numbers are solid right um this there's still a lot of positive news, right? Nvidia today is talking to China again on exports and China,
those news items that China is looking for 115,000 GPUs or something like that.
Anyway, these numbers don't make sense anymore.
They all run into hundreds of millions.
So, you know, no point even thinking about these.
But the point is, I'm not sure that's the right thing to do but they are going for another round of
we'll make a export compliant chip and you know that's that's another thing whether it's smart
after they've done that multiple times and had their hands slapped i'm
not sure but it is a big market and you know it's one more sign that you know you cannot ignore the
chinese market altogether just too large to you know to to look away from so that's happening um
let's see what else is uh interesting in the larger scheme of things.
We have Delta tomorrow, so that should be interesting.
I'm not sure if I saw the production numbers from TSM, but that's due one of these days.
So that's another one to look out for.
Maybe give a preview into how AI yeah uh demand stacks up um what else
that's about it it was really for me a rather quiet day just just taking a little bit off the
table and uh you know tightening stops on the rest and uh taking some selective hedges I thought I saw Cantor join us up here.
I don't know if he is in one back down or showing him as a listener,
but yeah, no, I appreciate those thoughts there.
Monitiv, Cantor, if he's up here, definitely.
Can I talk about a stock?
I don't know if you got Cantor up here.
No, go for it.
I want to pitch Hubmatic.
Um, it's a name that I've talked about for a long time, but I think there is a
clear, clear disconnect in the market right now.
Um, Magnite is obviously one that StockTalk and I have both talked about.
Um, and it has more than doubled off the lows.
We got a new price target at $39.
Stocks is 24 still.
It's basically waking up to the bull case that I've been talking about,
which is that Google antitrust ruling.
I talked about that months ago,
and finally the stock is beginning to reflect that with the 52-week highs.
And obviously their CTV platform,
where they have partners like Netflix,
DirecTV, Live Sports. you know, their CTV platform where they have partners like Netflix,
direct TV, live sports. They have, you know, they have a bunch of other partnerships like Spotify, Pinterest, et cetera.
But Pubmatic, it is a crappier business.
I'm not going to sugarcoat it.
You know, CTV is where you want to be in this space.
But I think what's really important to understand,
and I think maybe it's possible that the market is beginning to wake up to it after the magnite move um is that pubmatic is going to have
the same exact tailwind from the google antitrust ruling uh the stock i mean not long ago was
trading at three times adjusted ebitda it might be trading at like closer to four or five times now
probably uh after you remove the cash since they are profitable.
They've been buying back shares with that amount.
So they're buying back shares extremely cheap.
They have the same tailwind from the Google antitrust ruling.
And it's a 650 million market cap, whereas Magnite is a $3.3 billion market cap. So let's say,
you know, they're neck at neck tied for market share in the SSP market in which they're competing
with Google. So, you know, they're the next two biggest competitors to Google in that space.
So I would expect that they roughly both get about 50% of whatever the impacts are each.
And, you know, I think the market has begun to reflect that in the
Magnite stock price, but I don't think that that's been reflected
at the Pubmatic stock price.
And, you know, you have a situation where, you know, what is that revenue
impact going to be for these businesses?
In one scenario, it's a 3 billion business.
And in the other scenario, it's a $600 billion business.
And the incremental revenue with that extremely high margin uh profit margin uh is going to go
to a 600 million dollar company a company that's one-fifth the size so yeah i first i added this
morning and somehow the stock ripped nine percent right after that so that was pretty lucky of me
um but yeah i think it's possible that the market starts to wake up to this and
you know if they do i i really don't possible that the market starts to wake up to this and
you know if they do i i really don't want to be selling any more shares of magnite or pubmatic for like the next year two years three years etc because um i i think starting from these valuations
cyclical lows etc that tailwind is going to be monstrous for both these companies and again it
is a tiny market cap uh in comparison to magniteite's competitor. So just wanted to talk about...
What was the ticker again?
That's Pubmatic, P-U-B-M.
It's right below the 200-day.
But look, this is something that...
These are small caps.
They move on news, et cetera.
Let me see what that chart looks like now.
Oh, it just broke above the 200-day today.
We'll love to see that.
So there you go.
That's nice.
And yeah, I mean, it's clearly going to fill that gap right here if it didn't already today.
But I wouldn't be surprised to see this stock at 25 bucks later this year, next year. And that's not financial advice. Just just my thought.
So we'll see what happens. Let's see what their report is. As long as, you know, the core business doesn't crap the bed but um you know at these valuations it
feels really tough for them to crap the bed um and yeah those tailwinds from google once the appeal
process is over that could take a year or so which is why shares uh you know our majority of my
position uh the call the options chain is not that great it only goes out to january 26th you want
time with this one just to let it play out.
So yeah, I don't know. I've studied this business for over four years now, so I know it pretty well.
I know the management pretty well.
Yeah, an inferior business to Magnite, but that's why it commands one-fifth the market cap.
But the tailwind is the same.
The daily looks good um i think probably on the weekly and monthly you have some you meet some resistance in that like 15 to 15 50 area uh you have the 100 week overhead and the
21 month ema overhead but yeah i think if you can eat through like 16 bucks i think it becomes
really really interesting but yeah it is already interesting on the daily.
Emerging above the 200-day here.
921 pointing up.
Good volume, too.
Yeah, yeah.
I think it'll get the sympathy move.
I don't think it's gotten it yet.
So that's kind of what I'm looking for.
Yeah, if I end up rotating out of Magnite later in the year, then maybe I'll rotate to that.
But I still have those 17 calls for September for Magnite.
So I have to figure out what to do with those.
Dude, I mean, I personally think you should probably exercise some and hold some Magnite for the longer term, personally.
I've always just traded it, but it's always been so good to me, you know?
Like, it's never done me wrong on a trade.
I think what's important to understand though
is that the entire landscape for being an ssp just changed it used to be like google eats your lunch
why would you want to operate there and it just became you get to yeah i know the five-year
earnings outlook for magnite transformed i completely agree with that i completely agree
with that yeah and i mean that's why i got long again with you when when that inflection happened um i mean man what the stock was like 16 under 17 then and i got the 17 calls
and now they're the 17 calls like seven dollars in the money um i got them for like 8 80 cents or
something i think i'm up like huge on those but um anyway uh yeah i i love magnite so maybe i will
exercise some of those 17s we'll see where
the stock is by september obviously if the market holds up i mean it looks beautiful
the strength magnites had like over the last how many sessions like really since it emerged above
the 200 day this the relative strength the market has been fantastic. There's just not been any big red days at all.
And then you had this monster move recently,
which is from the 23rd of June to now from 17th to 24th.
Pretty beautiful move.
Magnet just still looks so good,
even though it's up so much for both of us it still
looks so good that's crazy uh yeah a lot of stuff looks good i don't know i mean larry was you were
talking about biotechs earlier after today's candles a lot of biotechs look good that's why
i was saying that earlier uh larry was talking about builders i mean we talked about these old
names too yeah i mean, even the tech leaders,
like, even some of those that have been fizzling
and pulling back a little bit,
just pulled back into their 21 EMAs,
like, reloaded, ready to go.
Like, I mean, it's hard to get pessimistic
when that much stuff looks that good.
And I think Larry brought this up
at the start of the space
when we were talking about Ethereum
and was just like,
it's all just one big risk on trade that looks good right now.
And I couldn't agree more.
I mean, that's really what it is.
That's why SMID caps, so many individual SMID caps look good.
IWM, even though I hate that index and would never bet on it going up.
I mean, that looks good, too.
RK looks good.
Biotechs look good.
Ethereum looks good.
Bitcoin obviously just ripped during the spaces and looks great.
I mean, I don't know.
Nothing, no risk assets that I'm looking at look scary.
And that's usually a good sign.
But sometimes you get rug pulls in those moments, too, because it's some exogenous news.
And if Trump wants to reinitiate the tariff war now, that could be the catalyst that makes the market calm down a little bit too.
But we just got 50% tariffs on Brazil while we're talking, which might shake up some confidence.
But market's not giving us any warning signs yet.
You can't tariff the BBL base in Bitcoin.
That's true. You can't tariff Bitcoin BBL base In Bitcoin That's true You can't tariff Bitcoin
That's very true
It says Tom where he had a 50% out
On his
Little divorce settlement
I don't get it
Did he get paid in Bitcoin or something?
No, Giselle's Brazilian
Interesting Operating at levels I didn't even think about he get paid in Bitcoin or something no Giselle's Brazilian oh interesting
operating at levels I didn't even think about good job good job bump we still
haven't gone to Wolfie yet I don't think on this one if I'm not wrong so what do
you want to talk about top five stocks that have hit all-time highs in the last
couple weeks that you're a fan of
nah just what's going on we've been having some stuff talking about stocks being successful even
since i did my list 3m joined that list of hidden stocks that hit new all-time highs today actually
i switched over the 52 week list it probably was i switched over to the 52 week high list from the
all-time high but also was on that list doing good,
I don't know.
Interesting names.
Curious what's catching your eye.
I was just,
again,
for me,
I've just been not really adding too much.
I traded video today off the open.
And a couple of the, the crypto derivatives,
Coinbase and MSDR. But outside of that i i didn't really do too much
like i said earlier i was just mostly net seller a lot of stuff that i took just like a month two
months ago started accelerating in the last week um a lot of it's i trade down on the option so a
lot of it's like either 6x to 10x 12x whatever depending on the
strike so i'm just kind of like a net seller of things just because of how far they've gone
not like a net seller of the market like if you know all-time highs beget more all-time highs
i just rather you know buy this buy the stuff on the back tests or trade them off the back tests or trade them off the mean reversions or whatnot.
And so, yeah, so I just, I've been booking profits, SBET, CRISPR is another one, you know, some, some other names as well.
But those are the two biggest ones that i kind of like took
off the table just because of how aggressively they moved um or took the bulk off the table i
should say just because how aggressively they moved um and then outside of that i just kind of
like keep looking back at the you know the boring names like i said um you know oracle ripped in the
last couple weeks and booked a lot of profit on the options front.
And now it's consolidating again.
We'll see where the consolidation takes us.
And then, you know, outside of that, I don't disagree with Larry.
Like there's a move to risk on.
um but earlier when we were talking i was when we're talking about ethereum and bitcoin uh
But earlier when we were talking, I was talking about Ethereum and Bitcoin.
ethereum on a relative basis was trading you know at its lowest level in four years uh to bitcoin
um on a relative basis and if you just back out and look um back to like 2016 was like the last
time beyond those four years that it traded to that level and usually when
things get that far extended uh you know they they both could definitely move higher but uh as long
as liquidity is there as long as market risk on is there the mean reversion ones kind of rip more
aggressively which is kind of why i favor ethereum in the short run, especially with some of these headlines
that come out on the back of it.
So yeah, it's just pick your stock,
pick and choose what you prefer,
and go from there.
I'm curious now that you see this Kellogg headline,
if it'll just have some sort of interaction
in the boring names.
And if it does, it sets up of inaction in the boring names and if it does it sets up
an opportunity for options from an options perspective uh to really like compound on some
of these uh names that are just usually low ivy anyways and um if there's any kind of chase
that gives you a really good asymmetry there so that'll be my homework assignment. See if there's anything that trades against positive
levels or solid levels that I could look
And then, you know, quiet,
quietly under the surface,
some of these,
again, boring names that
I talk about, but some of these
boring names that I like, some of these names
that I've mentioned on here, I've ripped
aggressively. One of them, take a look at Valero.
First talked about it when it was trading like around 130.
Very quietly has ripped to 150, almost in a straight line.
You know, would like to see some sort of consolidation pullback rip,
consolidation pullback rip.
And I'm just kind of curious how that would play out
in the next half of the year.
And I just think at this point, you't want to be too cute if you don't think something's going to you know go
i'll give you the example i'll give you is tesla right so like tesla trades to this like 295 293
level it's trades like crap right now um if you went back a few weeks and you had like
the market not as load up as it is for lack of a better word um you know that thing would probably
been hit but just like perpetual bid at that like 293 just kind of holding it together holding it
together holding it together doesn't really go anywhere but doesn't also doesn't sell off so i use that as an example
uh to say that like if you don't if you don't think something's going to run i don't think it's
a time for you to get cute and get ahead of it and try to short uh i think it's a time to like
try to find the thing that you think is going to run um or that you like from
a setup perspective or whatever uh and then the other thing i'd say is um especially if you're
trading options in the summer uh doldrums if if we just kind of like go sideways for a couple days
and they just kind of rotate from sector to sector and name to name. If you overstay your welcome on some of these things,
green can really burn you.
So, you know, just try to trade the setups if you have them,
if you like them, especially from an options perspective.
You know, not there, move on to the next setup.
I don't think you should try to,
I don't think anyone should try to go out and try to be in the wind
and try to call the top or expect some crazy thing to happen
because, you know, you could be right.
But that's the wrong way to look at it.
So, yeah, that's pretty much it for me.
I'm just booking profits where they are.
I'm not really being a little more selective up here, I'd say.
You know, if I could give you one thing that I'm watching, I'm trying to think.
You know, fuck it.
I'd watch Tesla.
I'd watch Tesla.
I think it could possibly end of week after consolidating for a couple days
and not going anywhere.
It could give you a big move to end of the week.
So that's what I'm watching.
We'll see.
I hope so.
Yeah, I'm just talking about it from, you know, it's gone nowhere for three days.
It's literally where it's at for three days.
You know, I kind of feel like it's pressed a little bit.
And I don't know if the move, the mean reversion move would be the move to the upside or if it'd just break down.
if the move the mean reversion move would be the move to the upside or if it just break down but
i feel like that's the one i'm going to watch the next couple days see if it uh resolves one way or
the other by friday that's my one trade i'm in a consumer discretionary calls uh and that's my
one trade that's being annoying right now because tesla to start this week uh but consumer discretionary against
215 has that same base on base look as these other areas of the market that we're talking about
like the risk on areas right so just i was just about to say go buy some stuff on amazon prime
help it prime day i'll give you i'll give those, actually, now that I think about it. Take a look at Netflix, traded back to a previous all-time high off of 340,
got back to like 1250, 1260, somewhere around there.
As long as that like 1250 level previous all-time high can hold,
kind of sets up pretty decently for, you know, just from a trading perspective.
Another one that is a little bit wider,
you have to give it a little more room,
would be Duolingo, trading back close to its 200-day.
I don't know if it actually hit it today or not,
but against the 200-day, probably a solid setup.
I'm trying to go off memory.
Sorry, I'm away from my desk now, Evan.
I got you.
Duolingo, i was actually that's
one that i got smoked on because it broke out and then failed uh the breakout move but it's still on
my watch list you are correct it is sitting right there at the uh rate below right above the 200 day
but also um looking at its earning vwop it's sitting right there, that 390. I think 400 is the level if it
can get back above. Same thing you're saying, right? Pretty oversold in the short term. But
yeah, that's one that had that earnings gap and then filled it. This is a trade that hurt.
Yeah. And then the secondary, or the last thing I'd say is i i talked about it yesterday with evan but maybe maybe there's
new ears out there um you know i i people started people myself included hated on apple
well evan loves apple um i was fortunate enough to be you know be in it at the right proper time
um and it worked out thankfully but uh you know when we talked about it yesterday or the day
before i was saying that a lot of people were looking for that 210 level um or the 209 level
or whatever it was on apple and i was talking to evan about it saying for me i'd rather see it go
back to like you know somewhere between 204205, and then right from there.
I don't know if it'll get there, but the longer it consolidates, the more I like it as that anchor for the market.
For a long period of time, they were using Tesla, NVIDIAvidia and some of those names to kind of anchor things
as that's the best way i could word it where you know on down days they just kind of bid those
names up kind of keep the indices afloat because of how much how big those companies are uh and i
feel like because of how everything is moving um you know majority of stocks going up and a lot of
stocks performing really well.
I wouldn't be shocked if Apple now starts getting used that way, where, you know, on
down days where there's no real reason to sell off, they just kind of use the funds
to go buy Apple and kind of hold things together.
So I'd like to see, you know, either go back to that breakout point, give me an entry so
I can get back into it with a little more size. I still have a position on options front, but I booked, you know,
the majority of the trade. So if we get back to like that 204 breakout level, whatever that exact
number is, would love to add it back there. If not, would love to see this consolidation. And
then if we get some kind of just moderate profit-taking days,
I kind of would want to pay attention to see if they go back
and buy Apple on those days as well.
I don't know if you saw the intraday move today.
It went down to the 207, 208 level intraday.
It had a pretty nice...
I mean, the whole market did this type of thing,
but Apple, I think, did a little bit more, is what I would say.
Yeah, that one did that one did awesome.
Nice stick save.
Nice little stick save.
The one that, the one that had the most impressive stick save that I was watching was Coinbase.
Coinbase ripped to its breakout pivot, like first, like 20 minutes or so.
Sated made a new low on the session and then just a v bottom and then closed at the highest of the
session so um yeah i'd like i like to see you know those kinds of names coinbase if you zoom out
larry you can you can probably uh speak to this if you're if you're at your computer oh my gosh
the base i actually just tweeted the base probably 20 minutes ago. Yeah. It's ridiculous.
Outside of the base, if you just comp it, go take a look at Robinhood's chart.
Exactly.
Right?
It's almost identical to the setup that Robinhood had.
Even to the point of Robinhood's IPO high was the all-time high.
Same with Coinbase, right?
Yeah.
So if you just pull up a chart,
just put up a side-by-side chart, if you guys are sitting at your computer, look at Robinhood,
draw a line at its previous all-time high, it was like 85 bucks, and then do the same with Coinbase.
And you can just put them side-by-side, almost identical setup, right? So the more that it sits at this level, people who want to take profits or bet against that prior all-time high, they're going to do it because people need to be made whole.
If you've held it the entire way and you get back, just the psychology of it, you want to – I don't want to lose, right?
The longer that it sits kind of here and just kind of like creates a giant handle or whatever, as soon as it breaks through, you're going to see something similar that you saw on Robinhood.
So once Robinhood broke that 85 level, basically moved 20%, give or take, I think 17, 20%, straight to 100, right?
Same kind of concept here.
Want to see it kind of grind back.
And as soon as it breaks out on that all-time high, I really think they're going to chase this name but um just want to pay attention to it and you can pull up an
hourly chart and pull up a four-hour chart and just use your moving averages on those
to kind of give you you know confluence zones uh with with trading setups right so and the the the
cool thing i personally like i know i know a lot of people on this space and people who trade in general like to trade these SMID names, small and mid market cap names.
I'm one of them as well.
Like I like I've done well on ASTS, CRISPR, Rocket Lab, et cetera.
And I'm not unique to that.
A lot of people have.
But my favorite kind of names are those names that have a quote unquote smaller market cap, but a higher price tag,
because there's a lot, there's a lot more room for these, these, these names to skip digits.
So they skip integers. They don't skip pennies. Right. And from an options perspective, those,
those multiply a lot, a lot more effectively. That's just me. So Coinbase fits right in that sweet spot, where, you know, it's
it's a big name. It's not small, but it's not like, you know, some some of these
other other names that traded that price tag. So I kind of like that setup, kind
of want to pay attention to that kind of thing. Same thing with MSTR, right? So
MSTR kind of break above this for 2025 25 level and it has kind of has a air
pocket and we'll see how it goes but yeah that's about it for me yeah the hood and coin comparison
is a great one i uh did some work last year for stock twits but looking at similar relationships
spotify and netflix right so like same thing those run together coin and hood tend to run together but looking at similar relationships, Spotify and Netflix.
So same thing.
Those run together.
Coin and hood tend to run together.
Anyone looking at bonds here?
Looking at yields?
I saw the TLT look decent.
Never.
I saw the TLT look decent this morning um i think i think you know i mentioned
it a couple days ago uh whenever you guys had um the yahoo anchor her name escapes me on but
i i wouldn't be shocked to see like a mean reversion set up uh in the dollar given that
they probably aren't going to cut or not probably it's more likely that they're not going to cut this month.
And it kind of sets up for, you know,
kind of a gap period until Jackson Hole.
And so in a situation like that,
wouldn't be shocked to see mean reversion in the dollar,
mean reversion on the TLT and the bonds.
Yeah, if you look at the daily chart of bonds, which once again, I think
bonds, dollar and home builders is all kind of the same trade. It's all that interest rate
sensitive trade, same thing with the micro caps. But if you look at the daily chart of TLT,
I can post it here in a few. We had a really strong RSI divergence,
which for those that are unaware,
essentially where price makes a lower low and then the actual momentum using RSI
makes a higher low,
basically signaling exhaustion in the sell side,
which you can then,
once you get back above that key level,
which in TLT, I need to find the chart,
I believe is the $90 level in TLT. That need to find the chart. I believe it's the $90
level in TLT. That might be the ITB chart. Let me see. Here it is. Yeah, it was the 85 level.
Once you got back above 85 in TLT, you had a nice move. And then this pullback that we had,
RSI stayed above 40, which if you study some, Andrew Caldwell is an old technician,
passed away a couple of years ago, rest in peace.
But essentially during a pullback when RSI stays above 40
and then you have this RSI divergence,
can kind of signal that the reversal, right?
It's just more confirmation that there's some type of reversal here.
And the level I would use for this,
because being more of a trend follower in nature,
I ran a recent high AVWAP from last September.
That's basically where rates peaked last year.
And that puts you at $90.
So if you can get a move from 86 to 90 and then play it via options when volatility is low,
you can make a killing trading options in this space. But yeah, this
chart, very similar to that home builder chart. To me, it's kind of the same trade, but I find it
interesting because I think that jobs number, if that was just a one-time thing, and I'm not trying
to speak here like a macro guy, but if that was just a blip on the radar and this allows the Fed
to cut, I mean, I think bonds could be a bottom fishing trade,
which for some people who don't want to buy all-time highs, I understand that.
But maybe look at some of these bond trades.
Pretty interesting.
But dude, Larry, you know that home builders look so great.
And so since we're equity guys, why not just go the high beta version and just long builder?
Good question. So to me, it comes down to the chart. So it just depends on the setup.
So I like TLT and then playing it via calls because calls are affordable and I think it's a short-term move.
But you look at something like ITB against 90, it's the same exact setup.
look at something like ITB against 90, it's the same exact setup. Individual charts, I believe
it's DHI is the one that's, yeah, DHI is the one that looks great, but we're kind of running into
this, the recent high AVWAPs in those names. It just, you can pick your poison. It's really what
you want to trade. Liquidity in options for these individual home builders is not as great as it is for that bond
trade. So I'm actually getting more beta and limiting my downside risk playing it via option
because all I can lose is the two, 300 bucks that I have per contract. So just something,
that's why I'm playing it that way. And I don't like individual stock risk as much when it
comes to some of these home builders because they have earnings coming up I believe in the next two
weeks so a couple reasons but a fair point and if you do want beta go ahead I was gonna say you
should check out the builders first source chart I chatted about this a few months ago, but this thing is now finally climbing
all the moving average.
Yeah, all those moving averages are kind of stacking up.
It's riding the 9 EMA.
It's above the 1,500 now, just below the 200.
And yeah, I mean, obviously earnings and whatnot, but volume looks good.
There was a $55 million insider buy like a couple months ago around like 110, 115.
So it's an interesting one for sure. $55 million insider buy like a couple months ago around like 110, 115.
So it's an interesting one for sure.
And also the solar stocks were definitely getting in like,
cause that's a definitely a rate sensitive cyclical sector like solar edge, for example. But man,
the thing with solar is more so than home builders is like at the end of the
day, nobody hates home builders but i feel like
as a sector solar has so many like opposites has so much opposition like especially from
this administration like one day you know trump can just say oh we're we're assigning you know
whatever benefits to the solar sector in like two seconds you know it could just kill your trade
whereas like home builders are going to trade on rates alone. Solar has more than just rates. Yeah. The thing I would counter, not just because I like to counter sometimes and have fun,
but look, I think ITB, right? The ETF for home builders looks better than BLDR or yeah, ITB,
I think looks great. So I think, I mean, it's the same trade, right? It's a very similar chart.
I just don't have that single stock risk in something. But the other thing I would say too,
is if you do want beta in this space and you like really want junk, look at NAIL, N-A-I-L.
It's a daily home builders and supply 3X leveraged ETF. So that's another way to play it.
leveraged ETF. So that's another way to play it.
Yeah, that's still my thunder, Larry.
Stole my thunder, Larry.
My bad. Yeah. So there's a hundred ways, right? When I do a lot of my writing, I typically write
in like three, four different ways. I'm like, if you're the plain Jane, you're the vanilla guy,
right? In terms of ice cream. And then you have the swirl and then you have the sprinkles. And
then you have the person who gets like the banana split like nails kind of the banana split like it's like exotic if you're into that stuff i think for me
it's like um look i i'm gonna be honest like i'm not like a home builder expert definitely not far
from it and i'm not i'm also not like a bio expert i'm also not like an anything expert to be honest
i just try to have my i try to understand things and i think a lot of how i'm able to understand fundamental
stories is i'm able to what's that quote and i know it's kind of cringe but uh stand on the
shoulders of giants so i always you know i think with having a platform like uh x and talking to
people all day long meeting really really really sharp investors um hearing out like their picks
and what they're talking about. So you end up meeting like
a ton of specialists that you can truly feel there's no BS with them. And they know certain
sectors. And that's how I came across Builder specifically is somebody who's much deeper in
real estate. So that's why I was able to make that pick is I am definitely borrowing some conviction
on a individual name basis. And it probably if you're a generalist and you just want to play the trend,
then obviously an ETF is the much smarter way to do it.
But that's kind of how I end up on some of these individual names.
I definitely borrow conviction, but at the same time,
there's going to be probably the bigger moves there.
And I think what's been really helpful to me
is taking in as much information as possible. And then I think what my actual,
like talent is at this point is to be able to distill what is good and what is probably not
for me. And I can kind of get by with that. Yeah, I think, and I got to pop off here soon, but if you want to go a level deeper,
when you analyze price, you're analyzing the behavior of hundreds of thousands of
very intelligent people buying, right? So that's kind of one of my takes. And like you said,
with home construction, you just had a clean risk reward in that BLDR name, right? And then once you
got above those key levels and buyers started to step in because sellers were exhausted, now you have the reversal
playing out. So yeah, it's bull market out there, right? Got to act like it. But that's all I got,
guys. Y'all have a great, great night. Cheers. Appreciate it, Larry. The only thing I'll disagree appreciate it Larry
the only thing I'll disagree with is when you say that they're all
intelligent people buying it
because that would be a broad
brush out there either way though
they'll add me next time bro
CC at
everyday I cash every time I cash
whatever it is I don't know I just know you as wolf
oh man what a day day I cash every time I cash, whatever it is. I don't know. I just know you as Wolf.
Oh, man. What a day.
Talk to me. You got any.
So funny is Wolf.
Wolf told me he's like, yeah, it's not Wolfie.
It's Wolf. But I just let you guys
call me Wolfie.
He knows this place.
That made me laugh so hard.
Yo, that's the last time you you want me to get
toxic i'll get toxic and geez i know my place that was just the way you said it was so funny
though you were just like yeah i just let you call people yeah i just kind of make it easy
for your audience no i know i know it's funny i know i know i'm telling them i'm telling them
not you yeah you know you're you. You're on the call.
Yeah, I know.
I'm just messing with you.
I mean, I guess Wolfie was a nice enough guy
since we have Wolf at the same time a lot of times.
Yeah, I know, exactly.
It's made sense.
It's nice that we have that distinction.
Otherwise, we'd just be saying Wolf and Wolf and Wolfie.
Imagine if I was one of those pricks that just had to correct you every time.
Yeah, like, sorry, it's not Wolfie.
There's no E at the end.
Sorry.
Just Wolf.
Sorry.
Yeah, that's the one, I don't know.
I feel like people are really, some people are really weird about that.
I don't mind if somebody mispronounces my name.
Hopefully they get stock talk right.
No, I mean, but even if they say Vishal a lot of people say
the shawl wrong I guess a lot of people don't hear me all because everyone calls me stock talk but
sometimes yeah a lot of shy or logical sometimes say it occasionally I just I don't I don't like
to I don't like to use people's governments if they don't have them as yeah I don't care I don't
care people do it yeah I know you don't. In general, I just
try to... Unless they have it up there
like, you know, like their name's Mike
on the thing. I'm like, cool, Mike.
He just goes by Mike. I just know it's easier
for most people to just say Stock Talk because it's what
it says on my handle. So I'm like, alright, I'll just
roll with that. The other
side of that annoying
coin would be if like
Michael Malone, the old coach of the nuggets
where it's like someone would call him mike shorthand when they're asking a question and
you just like interrupt them and cry it's michael okay i'm sorry sir like relax
yeah so i've met people that are like really weird about it but
i mean i'm a pretty i'm a pretty uh nonchalant guy when it comes to that stuff i don't really
care as long as you're like you know not being weird about it i don't i don't care if people
mispronounce my name yeah you're also a brown dude that grew up in the South or lives in the South.
I know people have that impression about the South, but I've never had issues with that kind of stuff.
Racial stuff, I guess.
I've never had issues with that.
I don't know.
Maybe I'm just lucky.
Anyway, a lot of good stocks, a lot of good stuff going on we talked about I think we talked about
like a ton of names today between the panel there's a lot of stocks that look
great I tweeted a bunch of charts today to some of the names I'm in that are
making interesting moves off of off of very promising setups.
If market sentiment holds up, you don't need much to hold up at the end of the year,
but if market sentiment holds up for another couple months going into earnings season,
you can see some big squeezes.
I kind of put this caution note out today for some of our members,
so I'll just repeat it here too.
But momentum names are fantastic to own during bull markets.
It's actually easier to own them outright than it is to trade them
because a lot of times they don't present technically attractive re-entries.
They don't always pull back cleanly.
Sometimes they'll pull back a couple percent and just rip next leg higher.
So they don't present the kind of entries where a strictly technical trader who's trying to get in and out of them can do so seamlessly.
Really skilled traders can do it.
Like some of the traders on this panel can do it because they've been doing it for a long time and they understand their process.
time and they, you know, understand their process. But for the masses, it's really hard to
navigate market leading momentum stocks and like get in them after they've started running.
A lot of times it can feel like they don't provide an opportunity to get back in.
They eventually all do, but sometimes it feels like, you know, for the first,
you know, three or four legs of the move, They don't provide a clean opportunity to get in. So in a market like that, you know, earning season provides a lot of opportunities.
And not enough people are focused on earning season because a lot of times they're not,
I'm just being frank here. A lot of times, especially retail is not buying stocks because
of the earnings. And, you know, that means that there isn't many eyes on the earnings reports now people that
have owned companies for a long time or bought them for a fundamental reason they pay attention
to earnings reports like i pay attention to the earnings reports of all the stocks i own and i
think you should even if you're a retail trader who thinks it's not important i think you should
pay attention to that stuff but earnings season provides opportunities in momentum stocks
because momentum stocks are often up on no real fundamental change, right?
Like in the past three months,
there are some momentum stocks in the market that have doubled.
There are some that have tripled in the past quarter alone,
in the past three months alone, past three quarter alone, right? In the past three months alone, not past quarter, past three months alone, okay?
None of those stocks have reported earnings
for this upcoming quarter yet.
Very few of those stocks issued material PRs.
You know, a lot of them issued fluffy PRs,
like, hey, we're partnering with some big company
or they were in a really hot theme,
like nuclear or quantum or space
or all these themes that have ripped face to this year.
So by virtue of being one of those things, either an individual stock catalyst, hot theme, high short interest, rising tide lifts all boats, tons of stocks have gone up a lot.
Without any discernible or material change to their fundamentals or earnings.
And so when those stocks go into earnings season,
the shareholders or market participants that do care about that stuff
will relentlessly dump those stocks if the earnings are bad.
And for a lot of these companies, the earnings will be bad.
Not bad in the sense of being bad outright but bad in the sense of you know relative to a hundred percent market cap
appreciation bad and that's a pretty high bar to me right if your company's doubled in size in the
last three months and you have nothing to show for it on the earning side or the guidance side
the stock's probably going to get punished and you you see this in bull markets too. Like this
isn't a feature of bear markets or something. This isn't like a, some kind of like, I'm not
up here preaching for like market downside. This happens in bull markets too. Like in last year,
the market went straight up all year, right? Year before market went straight up all year,
but go look at some of the earnings reactions for some of the market leading stocks.
some of the earnings reactions for some of the market-leading stocks.
And you'll see a lot of moves, minus 20% moves, minus 15% moves.
There's obviously some stocks that do have earnings profiles to support the stock price,
in which case those stocks gap up on earnings, right? And those are the real winning stocks,
right? Like Robinhood last year, where it just goes up and up and up and up.
And there aren't really opportunities to buy the dip. This year, there was actually even better
opportunity in April, but I digress. Anyway, some stocks do provide those opportunities. And
if there's momentum stocks that you're looking at now, and I'm talking to the retail community
who sees these tickers getting floated on Twitter all day. And there's momentum stocks that you're looking at now, and I'm talking to the retail community who sees these tickers getting floated on Twitter all day, and there's momentum stocks that are in a theme that
you really like, and there's sort of these more speculative mid-cap companies, which have been
the hottest things on the market this year. You don't have to feel like you have to buy them here
because a lot of them, a lot of them, not all of them, but a lot of them
will get killed on earnings. Okay. And if you really do believe those are the moments you buy
them, what a lot of retail traders find is that when that moment comes, they're not interested.
Right? Like Kratos is a great example of this. Kratos had a perfect pullback earlier this year
in April into the 200 day.
It's one of my biggest positions. It's my biggest aerospace and defense position.
So I didn't buy the dip because I, you know, I have enough size on it.
But there are people in our community who are asking me like, oh, Kratos is down a lot.
Like, you know, is this a good dip by opportunity?
And I was telling them, I was like, hey, if you're not in, yeah, if you like the stock, if you like the thesis, yeah, then it is a great dip by opportunity into the 200-day moving average.
You know, and I was telling them, I was like, hey, if you're not in.
Yeah. If you like the stock.
The stock has doubled since then in the past couple of months from that 200-day moving average dip.
But the point is to say you have to know that you like the stock. If you only like the stock because the price is going up,
and think about that, because a lot of retail traders,
and I'm not classifying it as me versus you guys,
I'm also a retail trader, to be absolutely clear.
But a lot of retail traders think that they're interested in the stock
because the price is going up.
That's what makes them interested in it.
They're not interested in it because they're interested in the thematic or sometimes they're
not even interested in the chart. They're just interested in it because it's going up. That's it.
And I know this is true because we have thousands of members in our community and
this happens repeatedly. I'll share an idea. It'll go up a lot. Right. And then people will ask me, hey, is it too late to buy? You know, or is now a good time? i'm assuming that was not just me that got got off from stock talk oh no i think it was me
i thought it was me too i just just reset my mode. That's funny.
I'll pick up.
I get the same thing.
I'll get, you know, especially on the options front.
Like CRISPR is a good example.
The CRISPR 45 calls were like 70 cents when I took them.
Stock got to, you know, 48.
And then it's on a lot of people's radars.
Like, is it too late?
Yeah, it's too late for that trade
you know uh he's he was talking about the 200 day stock talk interrupt me whenever you get back
he's talking about the 200 day but um you know hymns was another one went right back to the 200
day right back to prior all-time high during the sell-off um left for dead nobody wanted it
robin hood another one right back to its 200-day,
I think prior 52-week hire or something like that,
nobody wanted it.
The other part about, he's talking about earnings.
Earnings, another avenue for using earnings as a gauge
or as a way to get in
is when you get a surprise upside beat and a revision higher.
So take a look at like advanced auto parts, for example.
And then turnaround story, left for dead.
You can take AutoZone, you can take O'Reilly,
put them up and then put advanced auto parts right next to it.
Advanced auto parts, significant laggard.
Last quarter was way better than expected.
Turnaround story appears to be going ahead of schedule.
And then the stock just kind of bases.
It gaps up significantly, like 40% or 50%.
And then it gives some back in basis
and it gives you that opportunity if you want to play a turnaround with like a lower uh downside
risk so it's not always just chasing the the ones that work although i prefer chasing the ones that
work not the ones that are in um you know a bottom of the barrel but there are times for the bottom
of the barrel um and and earnings
generally light that light that match logical go ahead i'm just trying to filibuster for him
yeah no i um i retweeted something from august 2024 i can't believe it's been almost a year
since then but uh i i had a tweet from back then that said in in investing you must have an
imagination without it you can't envision a potential future reality.
Yes, trade on facts and data, manage risk, but use your imagination.
Think about a stock chart after it made a 300% rally.
It was never obvious then than before, but in hindsight, it seems so.
So I think a lot of people, what they struggle with, and exactly,
they see the price go up, and then use that as like confirmation of like the trade working but the truth is in in trading
you have to believe that that move can come before the move actually happens but yeah take a look at
take a look at crowd strike right crowd strike one year ago nobody wanted it because of their issues. And then go look at August 5th.
August 5th, I think it was at 204 or 202, something like that.
That was a low.
Has not gotten back to that point since.
Never retested it.
Do you guys hear me now?
Yeah, I can hear you.
Sorry, I don't know.
Pick up where I left off.
No, go for it.
I was just saying that uh you know uh
crowd strike gave people an opportunity off that japan uh headline last year august 5th or august
4th i don't remember the exact date that that two-day period was 200 basically that was a low
and if you if you were like oh shit i it, despite the stock selling off, I think, 30% into that point, you never got that price back.
So sometimes when you get the day to buy the thing, it doesn't really make sense to buy the thing from a complete technical perspective.
But you got to buy the thing.
And that just comes with experience.
Yeah. Yeah. You have to be decisive like you can't um you can't like sit around and like take too long to make decisions in trading and and that
applies to even short-term and long-term traders like even if you're a swing trader like i'm a positional
swing trader like i i day trade stuff sometimes but i generally hold positions like for people
that follow me in our community i generally hold positions for a while like i don't i don't just
buy stuff and then like sell it on the first pop that's just not the way i trade and some people
do that and that's fine if you like my philosophy is if you make money doing it i don't care what
you do that's fine good keep doing what you're is if you make money doing it, I don't care what you do. That's fine. Good. Keep doing what you're doing. If you make money,
it doesn't matter. Um, I don't, I don't criticize people who make money, but if you're not making
money, then you should listen to the things that we talk about and the tips that we give in these
spaces, because, you know, in these kinds of markets of the last few years, you know, I don't
want to say it's like easier to outperform but it is a little bit easier to
outperform in markets like this where the the overall market is in an uptrend for three
consecutive years and so in order to do that you have to be a little bit more attentive to your
positions you have to be decisive like your greatest ally in trading whether you're a day
trader swing trader or an investor even this isn't just for traders your greatest ally in trading, whether you're a day trader, swing trader, or an investor, even, this isn't just for traders, your greatest ally in trading, your single greatest ally
is your cost basis.
Because it changes everything about your portfolio management.
I cannot stress this enough.
If I buy a stock and I'm green immediately, or if I'm green within the first week or first month, and I'm like green as in I have a cushion on the position, it's above my cost basis, whether it's an options contract or stock or whatever.
The flexibility that that gives you mentally, psychologically.
I mean, I imagine most people in the audience, you don't have AI managing your portfolio, right?
You have, even if you're not managing your own portfolio, even if you have an advisor managing it, guess what? He's a human being, right? You have, even if you're not managing your own portfolio,
even if you have an advisor managing it, he gets what he's a human being,
right? And human beings react to psychological things. And when you are green on a position,
it is so much easier to manage, like infinitely easier, magnitudes easier.
Because you've, there's a a there's a factor of forgiveness
there and it's not that you're treating your profits as house money you shouldn't do that
either i'm not implying that people should do that you shouldn't just treat green as like free money
either but if a stock if you know you buy a stock and you have a really good entry right this is
about this is emphasizing entries more than anything you buy a stock with really good entry it begins a larger breakout and moves 10 percent not only can you take maybe some
options exposure off the table secure some profits maybe sell 10 of your shares but now if the stock
pulls back five percent you're still green on the overall position and holding it becomes much easier
this sounds sort of like arbitrary silliness.
Like if you're listening to it as like a new trader,
you're like, whatever, dude.
Like obviously it's easier to manage if you're green.
Sounds like an obvious point that I'm making.
But the reason I'm emphasizing it so much
is because when you're holding a basket of positions,
like 20 positions, you will notice this.
Like, and as your portfolio gets bigger,
you'll probably have more positions.
I mean, some people stay really, really concentrated
and have like two or three positions and do really well.
Congrats, you're one of those people.
I could never do that because, you know,
one stock goes down 20% and you're like,
net worth goes down 20%.
I could just never do that.
But, you know, if you are one of those people, congrats.
There are some great investors that do.
I have friends that do that. Like one of my cousins, like his whole net worth is like in Palantir. So, you know, if you are one of those people, congrats. There are some great investors that do. I have friends that do that.
Like one of my cousins, like his whole net worth is like in Palantir.
So, you know, I get it.
If it works for you and you hit it big and you want to keep that great.
But for me, as somebody that owns a lot of stocks, when I'm scrolling through my portfolio every day, I want to see green, even on red days.
You want to see like, hey, like these positions are maturing. They've
moved. The ideas that I thought would work have worked. They've developed. I have, you know, I
can roll some of my options out. I can convert some options to equity or vice versa. Like
that flexibility just brings another level of confidence to portfolio management. And
during drawdowns in the market, that is
hugely important, like hugely important. Like in April, if I didn't have such huge cushions
on my existing positions, I would have been shaken out of them. No question. No question.
Like if my cost basis had been worse on things like Kratos or like any of my core positions,
I would have been shaken out of them on those pullbacks because I would have been deep red
on those positions.
And I just don't hold stuff that's deep red.
I don't bag hold at all.
Like there's nothing in my portfolio that I'm down a ton on.
Nothing.
There are, you know, occasionally a handful handful of positions might be slightly red on as
i let them build but there's nothing i don't hold stuff where i'm down like 50 or 60 sometimes i
might have options contracts that are like sitting there that are down 90 that i'm not like whatever
i'll leave them there and occasionally they'll wake up from the dead but outside of that like
in terms of like an actual position like i'm never holding tens of thousands of shares of something down 80%.
And there's people that do that.
Like that to me is silliness.
You know, that money can be better allocated elsewhere.
So I don't bag hold by principle.
It's not that that doesn't mean I don't lose.
That's not what I'm saying.
And I'm not saying I don't have stock.
People might be misinterpreting that.
Like I'm not saying I don't have stocks that go red.
I do.
But when they go red, I cut them generally, you know, again, unless it's a high conviction
position where I'm like, okay, yeah, it's chopping around, but I'm not going to get shaken out.
There's no hard and fast rule. There are exceptions as always, but generally speaking,
I don't hold positions that are losing positions for me. So when you have a basket of portfolio, like I was thinking,
basket of stocks, and you have stocks that are green, it improves your psychological fitness
innately. You don't need to do anything. Like over time and over years of trading experience,
you will build psychological fitness for the markets. You will build a stomach for drawdowns.
You will build an ability to discern opportunities more effectively. You will build an ability to dip by stocks you
have conviction in. That's one of the most important things, really, that people should
learn as newer traders. Once you get to a high level of experience and extreme level of confidence,
I mean, for me, I don't even really scale in anymore. I'm just so highly confident in my
stock selection that I just buy my full positions within the first day or two days.
That's risky for new traders to do, though.
Because if you're a new trader and you do that and you don't scale in and you're wrong on your entry, you'll get buried.
And then we're back to square one in terms of psychologically managing your positions.
So you should favor things that improve your psychological fitness and training and not enough
people focus on that because they're very focused on like just what they own and like what new ideas
they might want to own and what they might want to sell that's all important to to portfolio
management but your ability to open your position set every day and be like yeah that's working
gonna let you let it keep yeah, that's working.
Going to let it keep working.
Yep, that's working.
Going to let it keep working.
You know, I can stomach pullbacks here.
I can stomach pullbacks here.
Okay, this one's close to the margin.
It's sitting on its 21 EMA.
Do I want to take additional risk below the 21 EMA?
What's my conviction level look like?
Like that is elite level portfolio management.
That's when you are really good at knowing what needs to be taken off the table, you know, when you need to trim,
which stocks you need to add to that level of minutia is what accelerates performance.
If you want to like 10x index performance, I know that sounds crazy to people, but,
you know, I know good traders that do it consistently. I've done it consistently.
If you want to have that magnitude of outperformance, and I think Wolfie's mentioned this before.
Other people have mentioned this before.
If you're not outperforming the market, you shouldn't be actively managing it at all in the first place.
So if you want to outperform, you want to outperform significantly.
And if you want to outperform significantly, you have to do those little things.
Yeah, that's the part. Not to outperform significantly, you have to do those little things. Yeah, that's the part.
Not just outperform.
It's got to be a significant enough outperforming after taxes.
After taxes and after your time, it has to be worth it.
Yeah, absolutely.
And so if after taxes and after your time, your outperformance is not significant enough to justify active trading, you shouldn't be doing it.
Or you need to get better.
One of the two. And a lot of you will choose to get better. And I admire that.
I chose that too early in my career when I was a shitty trader. I chose, you know, I'm instead of
quitting, I'm going to try to get better. And I spent years and years and years. My process just
five years ago was dramatically different than my process today, let alone my process 10 years ago. It was way different. I was a kid 10 years ago. I'm still young, but I was really a kid 10 years
ago. I didn't know what I was doing. A lot of you don't know what you're doing. You think you know
what you're doing because you're in a lot of good stocks that have gone up because we've been in a
raging bull market for three years straight. But when the going gets rough and stock selection gets harder and stocks get choppier and technicals get choppier
like they were in 2017, 2018, 2015, 2016, when you get into those types of periods, that's when
this type of stuff matters even more. But even in bull markets, okay, even last year, even the year before, like last year, I did 260%. I would say out of that 260%, 50-plus percent of that performance was from minutiae.
Trims at the right spots, ads at the right spots, option rolls at the right spots, converting
equity to options at the right spots.
That's the minutiae.
That's the little crap that no one wants to do.
Everyone's just going to buy a stock and close your eyes and dance around, right?
That's what people want to do.
But if you want to accelerate performance, those are the things you have to do.
You have to flip through your charts regularly and be like, okay, where is the stock?
What is it doing?
How does the volume profile look?
What did the last earnings look like?
Is there any recent analyst commentary?
Okay, has my perspective on the stock either improved or worsened as a result of those incremental changes in the data?
Okay, if it's improved, okay, I'm going to add this to my list of dip buy candidates.
to my list of dip buy candidates. And I'm going to monitor that chart. And when it comes into key
And I'm going to monitor that chart.
spots, technically, I'm going to, if I have available buying power, add to that position.
On the contrary, okay, this incremental data has made my position more negative on the stock.
I'm now going to institute tighter risk control on this position. Next time it's testing the 21 EMA, I'm not going
to give it room. If it forfeits the 21 daily EMA, I'll be out of this position because my outlook
has worsened about it based on this incremental data. Like that's it. It's just logical procession
through. And I know I talk fast guys. So if you want to go back and listen to these things,
as always, the things are recorded. You can go back and listen. But these are the types of things that accelerate performance,
small minutiae in management, especially if you have a lot of positions. If you have a few,
this is easy. If you have three positions at a time, that's easy. You know, you just look at
three charts and be like, okay, cool. I don't need to do this. Don't need to do this. That's easy.
But if you have 20 plus positions, it's not easy. It's not easy. It requires actual work to sit down and be like, okay,
what's my available buying power? How many dip buy candidates do I have? How many at risk
candidates do I have? This is just the way I do it, by the way. I'm not speaking like from out
of a book or something. This is just what I do. Okay. And every weekend I make a list of dip buy candidates and a list of at risk candidates.
And throughout the week, I monitor those names, you know, and it's not all the names of my
portfolio.
It's probably five at the tail end of my portfolio and five at the top end of my portfolio that
I'm looking for.
Right.
I'm looking for dip buys on my highest five conviction positions.
And I'm looking, you know, my five, my lowest five
conviction positions are at risk at any given time, which means they're sitting flat against
their moving averages or flat against some kind of historical support. The IV might be cooling off,
volume might be cooling off, attributes like that. I mean, there's no specific one thing I look at,
but I look at various attributes and make an assessment. Okay, this position is at risk. And then I watched the action that week. And very often what happens
because I'm an experienced stock picker, but very often what happens is that the stocks that are on
my at risk list will pull off stick saves. You know, they'll be pressing into their 21 week or
21 day moving average. And it looks like they're about to give it up. And then boom, they'll be pressing into their 21 week or 21 day moving average and it looks like they're about to give it up and then boom, they'll have two or three green days of action that week and I'm like, oh, okay, cool. Everything's gravy. That's very often what happens. Occasionally, one of the at risk stocks will break down. And then it gets cut. And for those that follow my journal in our community, that's rare.
When I'm cutting positions, it's usually I'm cutting them due to profit.
I'm rarely cutting swings because they were at risk and then broke down.
Or it's usually some kind of exogenous event, some kind of news release hits and the stock knifes down and I go, okay, I'm out.
But those are usually the things that push me out of trades. It's some kind of exogenous negative news or, you know, something else that I couldn't have seen coming. So
that's the type of stuff you do. You know, you have to do those little things. And
it won't matter much in the front quarter of the year. you know, and I mentioned this before, but if you look at the
performance charts I've chaired for my performance this year and last year,
you'll see my Q1 is usually choppy, even on good years, because what I'm doing is I'm throwing
darts to find my horses in that Q1. I'm opening a bunch of new positions, seeing, is it working? Is it working?
Okay, is chart maturing? No, no. Okay, cut it. Okay, this one's working. Oh, okay, the theme's
heating up. Oh, okay, it's a very catalyst-rich environment. Okay, okay, I'll keep this horse.
That's the way I think about Q1. I don't really care about performance in Q1 ever. In fact,
In fact, there have been years where my performance through Q1 is like in line with the market, and I don't care.
there have been years where my performance through Q1 is in line with the market, and I don't care.
My goal is in Q2, Q3, Q4 for my portfolio to go parabolic.
That's what happened last year.
That's what started to happen this year in Q2.
And, you know, it's really about how you pick your stock.
Some people want to be in every short- term theme for a small amount of time.
I don't involve myself in short term themes generally. I'm a thematic trader, but I only
trade themes that I think are durable. So themes that I think can last for multiple months. If I
don't think the theme can last for multiple months, I don't even bother. Because if you try to catch
really short duration themes, it's more work than you need to do, in my opinion.
Like with this gene editing theme,
I've just been riding CRISPR
and like those calls are up like 300% now,
the $50 calls for October.
I haven't done anything, just waited for it.
Let it move, right?
That took no effort on my part.
I just bought it the day after the Verve thing,
sat on it.
It just goes up and up and up and up and up, right? Sometimes it's just about laying that seed and just letting it work
on these themes because I believed, okay, the gene editing theme probably has legs because of that
Verve acquisition. Same thing with the nuclear theme, okay? When I bought LEU at 96, I didn't
sell. I still haven't sold any of it. I think LEU's, I mean, we'll do a space one day on LEU,
but I think LEU is going to
like a ridiculous number, but I won't say it here because I want people to start smacking it after
hours and going crazy. But, you know, LEU, which I still haven't sold a share of, which is like my
highest conviction position in my whole portfolio, that stock made a ripper move and I could have
sold into that strength, right? But no,
I didn't. Why? Because I think the theme, I think the nuclear theme is durable. I don't think it's
a one month theme. So I'm not selling on a one month move. You know, and sort of analogous to
this is kind of a side note. But I see people do this with options too. Like people buy January
2026 expires, the stock moves up 5% and they sell them. I'm like, what the fuck? Why did you buy
2026 exprees if you're going to sell on a 5% move? That doesn't make any sense. Why are you
paying that premium? So buy a quarter out if you're trying to sell on a 5% or 10% move. I mean,
if you're buying it on a smid cap, that's even still too conservative. But
my point is, when you're in durable themes, you can afford to build core positions in those themes.
You cannot afford to do that in fleeting short duration thematics in the market because they can get rug pulled on you at any moment and knife 20 percent.
And the issue is, if it's a fleeting short duration theme with no earnings relevancy, there is no hard price
floor. There is no expectation of value, right? Like centrist energy is a very volatile stock,
right? Because of where my conviction level is on it right now, I would buy any significant dip,
any significant dip. And so for me, and by significant dip, I mean like 20% plus,
like any kind of earnings knife or news knife down, I would be a buyer, not a seller.
And once you build that level of conviction position, then you know you're in a durable theme, you can build into those positions.
But if it was a short duration theme with no earnings, you wouldn't know where the floor is.
There's no inherent intrinsic value to the company.
So it's harder to be a convicted dip buyer.
This is the point I'm making. It is
more difficult to be a convicted dip buyer in short duration themes with dog water stocks
than it is to be a convicted dip buyer in high, long duration themes with actual revenue producing
names. Those are the big winners.
Those are the stocks that you could hold for eight months and not worry about it and not worry about the dips. People panic when they're holding a zero revenue company
or a hundred million dollar revenue company with a $10 billion valuation and it starts going down.
That's when people panic. And guess what? Rightfully so. Because many of those stocks
collapse from five or $10 billion valuations down to a couple of hundred million dollar valuations.
Scroll through a hundred small caps of your choice and you'll see many that were trading at 10x the
price 10 years ago. So my point is to say that you can trade short duration themes if you're a skilled trader,
but for people who want to be involved in these sexy thematics for a long time and not have to
get in and out of exposure, I think nuclear is a great example of this because that's a theme that
a lot of people really believe in, but the stocks have obviously run
to a magnitude that some people can't justify. If that's the boat you're in with the thematic,
where you really believe in it, you want to invest in it, but the stocks are running too much too
fast, what you do is you find these names that not only benefit from the thematic, but are actually
revenue producing, will see real earnings benefits from
the thematic and have really nice charts. Those are market winning, market leading stocks.
Those are the Robin Hoods and the Nebbias and the Centrist Energies that double in a month and then
keep going. Those are the types of stocks that do that, where the theme gets hot, sets off a trigger, sets off a new level of interest, a new level of volume, right, and opens up the stock to institutional interest.
And then it's just off to the races from there. you not only recognize the durability of the theme, but you found a horse within that theme
that not only is high beta, but has direct earnings relevance to the growth of the industry.
Those are like, those are stocks that get me pumped up. Like those are stocks that make me
want to just like slam my computer when I see that, you know, like that's how I felt when I
saw Centris and after the executive order at 96. That's how I felt when I saw Centris after the executive order at 96.
That's how I felt when I saw Nebius at 23 after the ClickHouse valuation. That's how I felt
when I bought Robinhood in February of last year. Those are the stocks where everything is just
lining up and you're like, oh my God, I'm not going to sell this thing. I'm not going to sell
this thing because over months or years,
it's going to trend higher and higher and higher. And, you know, if you don't have that level of
faith and conviction, you are going to get shaken out no matter how cool or savvy you think you are,
you will inevitably get shaken out because I mean, look at the, look at the April correction,
right? Look at what stocks did during the April correction.
You know, if you were long Robinhood at 60, would you really have been able to Did we lose him or it's just me?
I lost him again.
Yikes.
Man, I thought it's me.
I can't connect to my Wi-Fi, so...
Good to know it's not me.
All right, well, any famous last words here? We lost Stock Talk.
No, I mean,
I guess I can say some last comments, which is just,
and I think Stock Talk was talking about it earlier,
is like, you know, I think you
want to wait for any sort of
competition in price before you
get overly bearish or believe all sorts
of negative narratives
and stuff like that. I would just say that
a lot of the price action looks still very bullish.
I mean, until it doesn't, right?
But you can always react instead of trying to speculate.
That's one thing.
Two, you should just pay attention where the strength is.
To me, I think they call it rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market.
And so paying attention to where that rotation is, you don't have like
jump theme to theme and stuff like that. But as long as you like the spots you're in and you pick
them wisely. Like for example, there's a lot of times where a lot of, for example, like the
biotechs that I own haven't moved for a very long time, but I have hella conviction in them. So I've
stuck with that. The small caps, I've stuck stuck with them so don't try to be a trader
you're not um but because i think at some point a lot of these themes and sectors will have their
day in the sun so you know i think ultimately have conviction in what you hold and um but but look
around you i mean the breath is just finally starting to expand as we get rotation uh from
what has been absolutely killer
trades. Like, I mean, you know, like Robinhood, fantastic stock probably goes higher, right?
Palantir, I mean, could go higher at this point, but like those stocks are up 10X off the lows.
Is that where you're going to find the real alpha from this point on? Like, can it double from here?
Yeah, of course. It can double from here. If we get crazy, we get into bubble territory, but these
things are already up so much at this point. And I just personally don't think that that's where you're
going to find the great upside. So a lot of people who are like, you know, saying, oh,
Palantir is up 10x, like this market overvalued. It's like, well, have you looked at anything
outside of Palantir? Or are you just basing it off, you know, a couple of stocks, handful of
stocks that are getting mentioned on Twitter every single day? Because, you know, the retail
crowd is extremely long, the Palantir, the Hymns, the Hoods, the Oscars, etc.
So I think this is a year where you want to widen your scope of available opportunities.
And in my view, the fundamental case is fantastic.
Valuations are really good outside of what's been working.
I think that's why so many investors can remain bullish.
And those technicals are just now starting to shape up.
Like I was talking about Pumatic and the fundamental case earlier. That's just one example. investors can remain bullish and those technicals are just now starting to shape up like i was
talking about problematic in the fundamental case earlier that's just one example um and it just
today crossed over the 200 day and closed above it for the first time in one year i mean you know
there's you know palatine is probably 100 above its 200 day and we're not talking about that kind
of overextension here you know so i still think's a ton of upside. You just have to find it in the market.
You can't be lazy.
It's not 2023, the same seven stocks.
It's not 2024, the same 10 stocks work.
You got to do a little bit more work this year
if you really want to do well.
And I still feel, the good news is,
I still feel incredibly bullish
on so many opportunities in the market,
which is why, again, if I looked around,
because I'm like, it's kind of like
secondhand investor or some shit, because, you know, I'm not, I'm not the guy who's like talking about,
you know, the main stocks, most people are along. But if I start feeling like there's,
I think a lot of people will say, oh, there's no opportunity in owning like Robinhood or something
like that. Yeah, that might be true. But there's still a ton of opportunity in this market. But
if I personally, who studies the rest of the market start feeling like there are
no opportunities, that's when I would personally start getting a little bit more
concerned is when I personally don't see any more opportunities.
And right now I feel like there's still a ton of opportunities in the market.
So yeah, looking forward to breadth expansion, rotation, et cetera.
Uh, let it rip.
That's all. Sock Talk, did we get you back to close out your thoughts?
I don't even remember what I was talking about.
It was a great rant.
It was really good.
That's what happens.
I just get into these things, and then I just can't stop my brain from just spitting stuff out that I can think of.
I mean, honestly, I know a lot of it sounds just like me going off.
But if you guys go back and listen to it, I'm actually saying stuff that will be helpful to you if you're new.
you basically start off as a new trader,
just picking stocks and buying stocks and not really knowing where you're
buying them and not really knowing where you're selling them,
just selling them and buying them just cause things you see on Twitter or
things your friend told you about.
That's like where everyone kind of starts.
Just like buy stocks and sell them when they're up or don't sell them when
they're up and watch
yourself lose all your profits or whatever sort of bounce around try to figure out what areas you like
with industries and companies you want to own for the long term what trades you might be interested
in and you sort of just stumble along that path for a few years or at least for me it was a few years, or at least for me, it was a few years. And then eventually you kind of find your niche and you realize, okay,
I'm better at stock picking in this given area.
And then you master that niche and then you expand the trading principles and
practices that you learned in that industry or in that asset class to other
asset classes,
as you get more experience and other industries, as you get more experience and other industries as
you get more experience. Like for me that I started with just tech stocks and I'm by tech
stocks. I kind of consider everything tech, you know, I consider like within my nuclear exposure
tech as well. But, you know, when I mean tech stocks, I mean like, you know, your traditional
tech stocks, your traditional mag seven style software style stocks. And I did well. And,
you know, I had some very, very early entries that, that sort of made a lot of my early wealth
within in Tesla and Amazon, you know, years ago, many years ago that, you know, those investments
did very well. And, you know, over the last seven or eight years, I've been
branching out and sort of refining and honing my process. And now really what I do is I focus on
market caps under 10 billion, vast majority of my portfolios and market caps under 10 billion.
And I focus on thematically rich environments. I talk a lot about catalyst trading. And what I mean by
catalyst trading is really just a reason for the stock to go up. It's kind of a fancy word,
I guess. Not really a fancy word, but that's all it means. Just reasons for stocks to go up.
And what you'll find in thematically rich environments is that very often you don't
need individual stock catalysts. And all these areas that I've touched on in my earlier rant,
like nuclear and quantum and all these things,
they haven't needed individual catalysts.
The stocks just keep going up.
And that's a sign of durability.
Like that thing I was talking about earlier,
where you need to learn how to identify a durable theme
versus a short duration theme. That's one of the signs of that, where the stocks continue to make new
highs even after brutal pullbacks, right? Like the top for all of these has been brutal. Like
you look at the unwind of the nuclear trade last year, you look at the unwind of the quantum trade
last year, and then look at the rebounds on those, all the stocks to new highs.
That's not bearish.
And that's not the type of activity you see in short-duration themes.
And so those are the kind of cues you pick up over time over trading hundreds and hundreds.
Like, I've traded, I don't know, probably 1,000-plus stocks in my career now.
And many have come and gone.
Many aren't even listed anymore. Some are 20X higher than they were when I first traded them.
Some are, you know, down 90% from when I first traded them. But you pick up, um, like these,
these, these cues in your mind over time, over years of doing this, right, that you notice
trends and symbols and patterns. And you're like, hey, you know, this theme is always good to me.
These stocks are always good to me. Like, you know, you go back and look at someone you've
traded a few years ago. You're like, wow, they're 100% higher. And, you know, that becomes a theme
of interest for you. And that becomes a theme that never leaves your portfolio for years and years and years, you retain exposure to that theme and it does very well for you.
You know, that that's been software for many people in the last 20 years. That's really been
the leading thing. And people invested in a lot of mega American software companies early did very
well. And in the next 20 years, there'll be another handful of themes like that, where if
you bought them early and stuck with them in your portfolio and retained some level of exposure
you saw those stocks continue to go up and what i'll end with i know we've ran way over time here
is is to say none of this is to say that you shouldn't take profits or that you shouldn't
sell stocks that is not the message that anything that you shouldn't sell stocks. That is not
the message that anything I just said for the last 30 minutes is attempting to send.
The message that I'm attempting to send is there are stocks, there are stocks,
you know, that never stop winning. And having those stocks in your portfolio,
it's not going to be every stock in your portfolio, but having just some of those stocks in your portfolio can literally change your life.
Literally. Like Tesla, buying Tesla in 2015 changed my life. You know,
buying Robinhood last year didn't change my life, but it made me a significant amount of
money that made a material difference in my life. You know, um, same thing with Nebius and,
and centrist energy. Like those made me significant amount of money, amounts of money.
Like you can make money that can change your life off just a few stocks by just being disciplined
enough to hold your conviction in them, monitor
them constantly, you know, build into them.
And so, so yeah, there are stocks out there that are meant for trading and there are stocks
out there that are meant to hold.
And learning to distinguish those things is what is the biggest, I should say, graduation
step as a stock picker.
Like learning which stocks am I not going to sell.
That's the hardest part.
Taking profits is like, that's when you go from rookie to sophomore,
when you learn to take profits.
When you learn the positions you shouldn't take profits
on, that's when you go from sophomore to like elite market outperformer because they remain
stalwarts in your portfolio and drive returns for you even when the other stuff in the market
isn't working or even when your hand might be cold or even when it might be an environment that is
very catalyst poor and you don't have a lot of new opportunities presenting themselves.
Those periods happen in markets, guys, and sometimes they can last for a year.
Sometimes they can last for a year and a half.
If you don't have stalwarts in your portfolio during times like that,
you're going to feel like shit.
You're going to feel like, God, there's nothing I can buy at these prices.
There's nothing I'm interested in.
There's no hot thematics.
And like, you know, I wish I had exposure to the market that I liked and had conviction in.
That's what those positions will do for you.
You know, that's what the positions that go up five, six, 700% from your entry, that's what they'll do for you.
They provide you not only the comfort of owning them, but the comfort of having exposure to the market
without having to constantly chase it or change it
or chase the newest season or the newest theme.
Because if you're perpetually in a state
of doing that with your money, right?
If you're perpetually in a state of my buying power
constantly needs to be rotated to the hottest new thing,
you're going to get, not only are you going to get gray hairs very quickly,
but you're going to miss out on a lot of compounding. You know, there are stocks that
look very extended, you know, that a lot of people will look at and say, I missed my chance
to invest. I'll wait for a pullback. And some of them never come back. You know, even in market crashes, like they just don't come back to those prices sometimes.
So you got to pick your style. Some people like to buy weakness. Some people like to,
to, to participate in momentum. I am the latter. I think by virtue of participating in momentum, you plant seeds in the
market anyway. Robinhood, which I keep bringing up as an example just because it's been one of
my best performers in my portfolio and is one of my biggest positions now. But when I opened my
Robinhood position last year, it wasn't meant to be an investment. When the stock was trading like, you know, nine, 10 bucks, I bought $10 and $15 and
$20 calls leaps, right? I was like, okay, I think this thing can make a nice move this year. I'm
going to, it's going to be a trade for me. Well, it obviously went past all of those strikes.
And, you know, by the end of the year, the $20 calls were so deep in the money I sat down I looked at
how the business had changed right I looked at the last four quarterly reports I looked at how
you know their earnings had changed I look at their new products I look at what they were doing
geographically and I said you know what it's kind of not even a brokerage to me anymore
it's kind of a financial ecosystem product so So what did I do? I exercised those calls. And so a trade became an investment. I didn't go into that position
saying, I'm going to invest in Robinhood. I went into it as a trade. And as a consequence of that
trade, I laid seeds that became a core long-term position for me. Right. And so by virtue of being an active market participant,
and by virtue of being a trader, I build these positions along the way. Centrist Energy is
another one, right? Centrist Energy, which is like, you know, one of my largest positions right
now is second largest position right now. It and Robinhood are top two. They're like neck and neck right now. But I owned that back
when it was 40. Okay. In 2021, 2022, and I owned it back when it was 40. And I owned it as a trade.
Okay. And I sold it in the 80s. I was like, okay, I made 100%. I'm happy. I got out of it. Right.
And then earlier this year, when that executive order about uranium independence came out, the first name that popped up in my mind was Centris Energy.
And this time I didn't open it as a trade. I opened it as an investment.
I opened it with a longer time horizon. So these examples are to show you that in both of those examples.
that the boat in both of those examples right in centrist energy's case i initially traded it i
made a successful trade and then i revisited it for a different reason and i'm now managing that
position differently right the first time i opened it if it went up 40 50 i was already trimming it
right now i'm up almost 100 on shares and i haven't sold a single share what's the difference
right you would say well stock talk by principle shouldn't you be selling you sold last time when I'm up almost 100% on shares and I haven't sold a single share. What's the difference? Right?
You would say, well, stock talk by principle, shouldn't you be selling? You sold last time
when it was at these levels. Right? And my answer would be no. The purpose of the position has
changed. Right? This is like a fundamental concept to understand. Like, why do you own it?
Do you own it just because you want it to go up? That's a trade. Do you own it because you think it has durable thematic relevance and you think over the next 10 years it can go significantly magnitudes higher? That's an investment. That's a stock you're going to stay in.
really mean is just a trade with a really long time horizon. That's all an investment is.
Okay. So when I say investment, that's what I mean. When other people say investment,
they mean something else, but that's what I mean. I mean a trade with a really long time horizon.
And so distinguishing those things and saying, okay, I'm only in this because I want it to go
up a little bit and I think it's going to pop and it's in a wedge. And I just looked at the chart.
That's a trade. There's no reason for that position
to become an investment.
But if things about the company change,
you know, it becomes more promising,
new catalysts emerge, new partners and contracts emerge
and you go, you know what?
It started as a trade, but this is a hell of a company
and they're doing everything
that I thought they would and more,
I want to own it. You know, I'm going to exercise my calls or I'm going to keep this stock instead
of selling it. Those distinctions will make you a shitload of money in your life.
Making the right calls on those distinctions will make you a ton of money in your life. Like
if you can make a right call on just one or two stocks, you don't have to be right
about everything. I said this before. You can make life changing money. That's why the stock
market is the greatest place in the world. And you don't even need to take risk to do this, guys.
You don't need to take an enormous amount of risk. Like I said, you can value your entry.
It's OK to value your entry. You know, I think it's sort of demonized. The
idea of valuing your entry is demonized sort of by the investment community because they're like,
well, it doesn't matter what price you buy at because if you hold for 10 years, then you'll be
up. I think that's a stupid mentality. I think it absolutely matters what price you buy at,
whether you're investing or trading.
I think it absolutely matters.
Not only does it matter for capital efficiency, right?
You get more shares at a lower price.
That's just basic logic.
Fundamentals 101.
I don't need to explain that to you.
Not only do you get more shares at a lower price, but you get that psychological fitness that we talked about earlier,
about having a position that's in the green
instead of a position that's in the red.
And perhaps most importantly of all, what you get by having a good entry is you get even better compounding from a percentage standpoint.
And over the long run, over the very long run, it will improve your returns, your net return.
And what you'll realize as you build these seeds is some seeds won't sprout.
You're going to drop capital in stocks sometimes that just don't work, whether it's because of execution, whether it's because of whatever.
A million reasons.
A chart breaks down, negative catalysts, bad earnings, bad management, whatever the fuck happens.
Something bad happens.
It's not performing.
You do not have to just sit and hold and hope and wait.
That's also a stupid mentality that a lot of people have.
It'll come back.
It'll come back.
Unless you have a good reason, then you don't do that.
If you really have high conviction, hey, you know what?
There's this upcoming catalyst.
They're just shaking traders out of the trade.
If you're experienced, you can make that judgment call.
Absolutely.
But if you're not experienced and you have no idea what's going on and your conviction level isn't there and the stock's down 20% and you're red as hell on it, put your money somewhere else.
Like sitting around and the technical structure is broken down.
You're just praying that it recovers.
That's nonsense and it's a waste of money.
Every single dollar you allocate in the market, every solitary dollar you allocate in the market can be allocated elsewhere.
Every dollar.
I talk about sometimes in our community, like putting sticky notes out.
You know, one time when one of them is like patience pays and chasing hurts.
But that's another good sticky note to put on your computer.
You know, it's there's there's just a fleeting understanding of risk in the market. I think once people realize that they become much better stock pickers
and much better portfolio managers.
Anyway, that's it for the day.
We're super over time.
I got to go to the gym anyway.
I'm just killing time over here ranting.
Appreciate you guys.
We'll see you tomorrow.
Same time, same place i don't know i
can't believe like i can't believe like four or five hundred of you just sit in here and listen
to me probably this is probably i'll go top 10 that's probably top 10 rap
top 10 top 10 right it blows my mind like hundreds of people just sit here and listen to me rant i'm
just trying to get stuff off my head.
Hopefully, some of it's helpful to you guys.
I appreciate you guys for sitting in here and listening to me.
Just go on and on about stuff.
I am really trying to be as coherent as possible.
I know I talk fast, but there's a recording.
You can listen to it at half speed.
All right, we'll see you guys tomorrow.
You can just imagine somebody listening at half speed to that.
That would take forever.
Either way.
For 60 minutes.
Dude, imagine this is a three-hour show today.
Six hours.
You can sleep through the whole thing.
Six hours.
Good Lord.
But no, good stuff.
Talk, talk.
Actually, I really like it. I'm glad good stuff. Talk, talk. I actually,
I really like it.
I'm glad you,
I mean,
you're a seasoned trader.
You have a lot of great thoughts and I love that.
You just kind of get them out there for people.
And I think it's good for the audience.
I think that's why so many people to the Testament,
why so many people are here is because they like listening to other people,
get their thoughts out.
Things that you've gone through in your career.
I just think it is super helpful.
So that's,
I actually really enjoy it. So appreciate you appreciate all the panelists we had today. And
of course, appreciate all the audience shout out to all of you guys. And like Stock Talk said,
we'll be back tomorrow, power hour, same time, same place. See you then. Thank you.
