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Stock Market Talk
Recorded: Feb. 11, 2026 Duration: 2:34:21Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic market landscape, key players like Vertiv and Cisco are showcasing significant growth potential, while Robinhood's strategic expansion and Micron's strong performance highlight emerging trends in the crypto and tech sectors. Upcoming earnings reports from major companies are set to further influence market sentiment.
Full Transcription
What is up? What is up what is up everybody how are you guys doing i appreciate you for joining us
on another day of stocks on spaces another wonderful day of stocks on spaces in the thick
of earnings season the stock market is evenish today there's a couple stocks that are down there
are a couple stocks that are up.
We had a lot of earnings over the last couple days or so.
Even since we last were talking Shopify, Vertiv, etc., reported earnings, there is a lot to
talk about here.
And I'm excited to dig in on this conversation.
I'm going to take a look down in that bottom right a couple times today.
I want to see what questions you guys have.
Shout out to Martin.
He is always super active down in that spaces chat. Love to see it. Shout out to you, Martin,
and everyone else. But I appreciate you guys for hanging out with us today, getting started,
allowing us to be a part of your routine. Like I said, a bunch of companies reported earnings
this morning, last night. Let's see how a couple of them are doing. We had a Shopify earnings in
the morning. It was initially up 10% in the pre-market. Shopify is on pace to close the
day down at 9%. Big turnaround there from Shopify. Vertiv, ticker VRT, reported earnings this morning,
holding on to its game. Data center theme is hot. Vertiv, VRT stock up 23 percent vertive stock is up 23 percent let me send out
an invite or two as well really quickly i know i was talking with roy crossroads i think he might
be able to join we could talk some fintech stuff there i see wolfie down below i was literally
about to send you one come in hang out with us up here let's keep looking across some more of
these companies that reported earnings this morning unity software down 25 percent thicker you down 25 percent here sorry sometimes
i just do things uh t-mobile is down i'm just assuming it is up three percent four percent
there you go that happens when you assume a couple others we're halfway there let's keep going craft
hines craft hines was planning to split its company in two they said that they're not planning to do that as much
anymore trying to figure out the structure the future of that company humana is down a little
bit shark ninja everyone's favorite products there you go up seven percent and then i want to take a
look at some of the companies that reported earnings last night, how these names are moving. Robinhood was the big one.
Stocks down 10%, 9% here at After Hours, hanging out around 70, sorry, and still in regular market, hanging here around $77.
Cloudflare was another big mover.
It was up yesterday.
It gave back a good little bit of it, but still up 6%.
Acera Labs last night, I believe, was one of the names that was moving lower.
Alab moving lower, still holding on to those losses, is what we could say.
They're down 21%.
Sarah Labs down 21% today.
Damn.
Let me just double-check something quickly.
Okay, yeah.
And then also, let's see, Lifts.
Can You Lift Me Higher is not working down 17%.
Upstart.
Down 14.
A lot of these earning names.
LEU I saw was moving lower earlier.
Damn, LEU down 20.
All right.
A little bit of a difficult Tuesday night, Wednesday morning movers coming off of these earnings.
But that's a lot of the stocks that we were seeing there.
I see 160 guys already joining us in here
want to get started couple earnings after the close today McDonald's App
Lovin Cisco grab quantum scape a few others HubSpot album or lay I'm sure a
couple other smaller names but there are a bunch of earnings still coming up
after the close we are still in the thick of it there was a bunch of earnings still coming up after the close. We are still in the thick of it.
There was a few news stories today, and then I will bring in the rest of our amazing panel.
I appreciate all of them for coming in and hanging out with us.
Elon Musk put out a post.
A lot of people have been saying they're leaving XAI, and he put stuff about a reorganization,
maybe trying to say these people were fired, not left.
I don't know.
Apple, there's a story that
they are going to have to delay the rollout of some of their Siri features. They are having
problems even as they bring in Google to save the day and power their Siri AI systems. But
apparently some of the features which were planned to be rolled out this next month are going to be
rolled out in the more distant future is what we could say. A little slower. There was some Bill
Ackman news. Bill Ackman updating his portfolio. He added some Met slower there was some bill ackman news bill ackman
updating his portfolio he added some meta stock bill ackman now a meta shareholder had some good
stuff to say about it there there was a story around novo nordisk giving us some targets that
aim to have 15 million patients via medicare when that starts to get added um bill ackman also had
one or two other moves.
I'm seeing stakes in Amazon, Hertz, and Meta.
Stole stakes in Chipotle and Nike.
There's a story that Google is adding a way for people to buy things within its AI-powered chatbots,
within its Gemini AI-powered chatbot.
That was one of the stories that I saw come out today.
Heineken laying off up to 6,000 workers amid weak beer demand is what the Wall Street Journal framed it as.
But Heineken doing a layoff.
We also did get some macro data coming out this morning.
We got non-farm payrolls, NFP.
We also got the unemployment rate.
NFP came in at $130K, above expectations of $66,000.
So the U.S. economy added more jobs than was expected last month.
That is according to NFP.
And then the unemployment rate was below expectations, 4.3%, below expectations of 4.4%.
So fairly some decent jobs out of this morning.
Not too much of a fear there.
And yeah, that was a lot of the news stories from this morning.
A couple more more a couple other
stuff going on but i've been talking for plenty of time here to kick this spaces off options mike
how are you doing sir good evan how you doing bud i am doing well i am doing well less distraction
today than normal so it's it's good to be able to lock back in and start to get into a routine
i actually i'm very talkative today i guess i have a couple events next month that I am getting very, very excited for.
Some ones that involve making some content for all of you guys.
Maybe involving a Mag7 going to another one of their events.
Cool.
And a nice conference.
Although we're getting to a nice rhythm now, it will be disrupted at some point soon.
What are you watching in this market?
What's standing out to you?
I imagine it was a difficult day.
I was talking to some of the wolf trading guys and it was uh definitely a
there have been easier mornings is how we can frame it yeah i mean we had that nice push up
on that much better than expected non-farm payroll number and unemployment rate lower
um and the market seemed like it wanted to push and it was all great uh and then the market opened
when it's sideways for about 15 minutes, and then just rolled over.
So the market's fighting with this grip, you know, trying to get its act together on what it wants more,
a strong economy or rate cuts.
And with the jobs number like that, you can basically kiss any kind of rate cut until the next Fed chair is in,
which will be June is the first meeting that the new Fed chair will be able, would possibly be installed.
Again, it has to get approved by the Senate first.
So, you know, and, you know, that's to be seen.
I suspect he'll get approved, but, you know, that's never a foregone conclusion anymore.
So we sold off and you had this market with a lot of different things going on.
Again, they went back and the names like Coke and Pepsi were strong.
Energy knew all-time highs on the XLE and Exxon Mobil today.
Also, Chevron is, I don't think it quite got to the all-time, but it's like three bucks away from the all-time high now.
I like to watch my 52-week high list and we're going to meet the post here in a second.
But Exxon Mobil is one that has definitely been an active member.
Actually, there are 250 large cap stops on my 52 week high list.
We got to filter to all time highs.
But ExxonMobil has been a popular one there.
I mean, I think it's been just nonstop at a 45 degree angle for the last month plus.
So, you know, I jumped on Apple a couple of times today and I overall made money on it.
Thankfully, I wasn't in it when that news broke again this afternoon. Not every trade was a
winner. I mean, it's just not an easy, it was not an easy action here today. I'm also a little
longer from AMD calls and I had a really nice trade on the SPY. Honestly, I was watching hood
and hood has come off the lows. It's actually back to the open here now, but I did not like
that report last night. I mean, I got gotta tell you uh i thought that was a very bad
report and they may get a pass on it here ultimately at the end of the day and come back but
you know their guidance was weak um you know the crypto is definitely hurting them and you know
bitcoin remains overall weak it's back under 70k and can't bounce and you know that continues to
be a little bit of a drag here on the markets in general.
The SMHs popped big on the open.
Taiwan Semi hit a new all-time high.
But names like NVIDIA and AMD, they just couldn't find it their way today.
Although, you know, they're both holding in relatively well today.
They're fine.
Tesla held in well today at the end of the day.
Software names like Microsoft got got dumped amazon meta had
news news after news on it today that thing whipped all over the place and ultimately it's basically
flat on the day at this point um google continues to get punished here and beaten up
palantir as well again it's a split market the the names they want aren't really you know aren't
the tech names the tech remains there's trades to be had there but they're not really buying it with gusto there's not a lot
of sustained momentum there right now uh we saw names like walmart and costco bounced nicely again
today if you're looking for a thing to be concerned about the banks continue to get hit um i am you
know you're seeing this going on here and the banks back the xlf back to the 200 day
char schwab has absolutely been destroyed the last two days from 107 down to 95 the 200 days
down at 94 area so it's heading for that we saw bank of america get black pretty good uh jp morgan
which tried to break out this morning now down under the 58 and the 21 day and holding the 100 day by the skin of its
teeth so you know there's a lot going on here as we continue to see these ai headlines come in and
just you know take whole entire sectors down and i suspect that's going to continue for a while that
you know ai is going to take over the world well you know we talked about this yesterday it can't
if it takes over the world there'll be no jobs there'll be no economy so you know something will have to give here and there
and eventually the wall street will figure out that these companies will adapt some will be in
trouble but most will adapt and they'll figure out a way to move on in this space so you know i think
you know less is more here right now the market is a stone's throw from all time highs this morning on the open. We were what, um, a buck, a little over a buck, a buck, 60,
buck 70 from it or so from the all time high.
So it's not like we did anything bad. We're still above the eight day.
We're above all the moving average on the S and P 500. It's just momentum.
And, and, you know, again, investing, not having sold anything.
I haven't added anything recently here i'm being a
little quiet being patient but watching from a day trading you know you have to adapt to the pattern
that is this market that is stuck in and right now this market is stuck in a pattern where you
get this opening salvo goes to around 11 o'clock and then this market goes into a deep coma for the
rest of the day whatever reason whether, whether it's the new AI
models that are doing this, put the algos or whatever it is, it doesn't matter. This is the
current pattern. So what I always try to stress to my members is during the middle of the day,
once you start seeing this pattern set up, if you're trying to buy breakdowns or breakouts on
names on the five-minute chart, chances are they're going to fail and they're going to just
whip them right back in your face
because it just seems to be a whole lot of nothing.
That doesn't mean that the overall market's in trouble,
still holding it just fine.
Those are some good points there.
Normally I would just go around, Hamid.
I believe you're going to have to leave here soonish,
so maybe I'll just come over to you and hear some initial thoughts you have obviously Mike was uh talking a
little bit there I know you have a different perspective a little bit more on the longer
term one um we have uh Bill Ackman making some moves in one or two names that I know you're a
fan of there's also been some interesting earnings Mike was talking a little bit about Robin Hood
earnings there as well a few others coming up after the close and app loving fin twit likes how you doing ameed i'm good what
did bill bill eckman do i missed that oh you didn't see guess what guess what he did tell me
bought some meta oh very cool i'm surprised meta is still down meta just blows me away like they're
they're crushing it in every possible way.
And you can buy it now, I think, less than what it was prior to its quarterly report.
And they had a stellar quarterly report.
So I feel like sometimes the market gives you gifts and, you know, like it is what it is.
It's kind of interesting.
I missed Option Mike's complete analysis on
hood um hood's report they they sort of like missed on the top line revenue but keep in mind
they didn't provide that guidance that's sort of like wall street analyst expectations and they
missed it by uh tens of millions uh on one point roughly $3 billion of revenue. But they had a record quarter,
which was up significantly year over year. And they seem to be accelerating on product development,
which I think is what's far more important in the long term. And they now have 10 or 11 solid businesses that are each driving $100 million of annual recurring revenue.
And each one is growing.
And they haven't even introduced their banking product yet.
And they haven't opened up their credit card completely yet.
They only have a half a million credit card users, even though they have a backlog of
a couple million.
Their banking product, they opened it to tens of thousands of users, I though they have a backlog of a couple million, their banking product, they opened it to
tens of thousands of users, I believe, in their beta testing. And they immediately had over $400
million of assets that got deposited into their bank. So, you know, with something like 50% of
the users choosing direct deposit to go into their Robinhood bank account. So as they roll out new products
and as they go international, when you fast forward this company's potential and prospective
growth over the next five years or 10 years, I think it's one of those things where you kind of
see where it's going and you can kind of like kick yourself five years, 10 years from now for not being a major shareholder. In the same way that, you know,
like you knew the internet was growing in the 2000s and 2010s and smartphones were going and
so on. And, you know, if you didn't own Google and Apple, you might be kicking yourself and Amazon, for example.
So this is one of those things where it's pretty easy to predict where this company's future lies.
And it's only positive.
And that's the way I look at it.
And in the short term, yeah, it's down 10 percent or it was down as much as 12 percent today.
That just seems kind of silly.
But yeah, it has been a rough day, rough month for my portfolio personally.
But again, like I'm not concerned about it at all.
Micron in particular is a sweet spot today, up over 10% now.
And this is a company where the sort of bare thesis has been that memory is
cyclical. The Chinese companies are flooding the market with memory chips, or Micron is behind on
high bandwidth memory, HBM4, and NVIDIA has chosen their competitors for their next generation of chips.
And all of that turns out that it's just basically false rumors,
or even if true, it has no actual impact on them because they're basically sold out on 2026 inventory.
Their high bandwidth memory 4 is actually shipping already,
already and it's like fantastic according to their CEO um and um and all indications are that
and it's fantastic, according to their CEO.
micron is going to have a stellar 2026 and possibly an even better 2027. so um it's it's
one of those things where uh the uh the the uh bullish take seems to sort of like very much uh be standing out in terms of relative
to the bearish take on micron so a lot of good stuff happening in the market and you know that
the short-term turmoil feels like a little bit of noise and i'm sort of tuning it out
a little bit of noise and I'm sort of tuning it out.
I'm curious how you're feeling post the earnings here.
Have you, did you make any moves this morning?
I won't lie.
I bought a little bit of Robinhood last week
when Bitcoin was dumping and Robinhood was moving lower a bit.
So basically back to where I was buying there.
I've talked a bit about it.
I might add an extra share or two.
Maybe go in and digest a
little bit more. But have you made any moves in the last day, two days, three days, that type of
thing? Most of my move was done pre-earnings. So I started buying in the 90s, then 80s, then
low 70s. And I haven't bought any since the report. I thought that, you know, maybe the market can be even more dumb and bring it down
even further. You know, so if it gets into the 60s, I might pull the trigger and buy some more.
But at this point, I'm also, my portfolio is roughly 14% cash. And I like to have a higher
number than that, generally speaking. And then we're going into tax. I'm going to have a higher number than that, generally speaking. And then we're going into tax.
I'm going to have a huge tax bill in April.
So I have to sort of like keep some reserves in terms of cash
just for tax purposes because of the fantastic 2025.
So I haven't pulled the trigger.
I feel like the price is great,
but it's also my second largest holding
with 16% of my portfolio already in it,
despite the price drop. So,
you know, it has been as high as, you know, 150. So if it were to reach those kinds of prices,
again, it would be a huge chunk of my portfolio. But again, I'm not looking at it from a short-term
perspective. I'm looking at it with a three-plus-year horizon, right?
Like, I don't know what the stock's going to do in the next six months or a year,
but I feel like I'm pretty confident in my guess as to what the stock is going to do
three years from now or five years from now.
So, yeah, I haven't pulled the trigger on adding any more post-earnings.
Take a look into Honeywell.
It's been a fun name we've been looking at.
By we, I mean me and Wolfie.
Having a good time up here talking about it every once in a while.
But it's the year.
It's the split up.
Honeywell's been off to a good start, but we'll see.
Hopefully the year hasn't already happened in February.
It's a good transition.
Yeah.
I mean, Honeywell is such a old school company that like it does not excite me in any way uh whatsoever like i don't feel like that's the future of
aerospace or um you know they have like so many different divisions like that's the future of
in like two or three parts so that's where where the hope is. It gets a little leaner.
Right, hopefully.
But it has a PE of 22 and a revenue growth rate of 4% or almost 5%.
What's exciting there?
Even if they split it and then it grows at like 10%, fantastic.
But you can get meta today for a PE of roughly about the same with a 20% growth rate.
And Meta definitely has a much brighter future, in my opinion, and is run by a founder that really
gets it and is making heavy investments into AI. I mean, I don't always agree with Bill Ackman, but in this case,
I feel like there's good reason why somebody like Bill
Ackman is even getting excited about Meta.
So there's better tech opportunities than Honeywell,
in my opinion.
Wolfie, the haters are out.
They're saying bad stuff about Honeywell.
Well, it's the year of boring, so if you don't like boring, I don't know. You might have to endorse some more pain on some of these compressions for some of these tech stocks
that become value traps for the next few months, in my opinion. I don't know if metal will be one
of those, but there's a chance considering they have
to increase their capex.
It could definitely be, but obviously that's like a timeframe type of thing.
Any stock could do, but yeah, I'm just joking around.
Josh.
But the bull thesis, I mean, I'd invite you to take a look again at Honeywell.
They got a $37 billion backlog now and their organic sales in aerospace was just growing.
It's up 21%.
So they do have some tailwinds.
Another boring name.
I'm assuming you went with the punchline so I can go ahead.
But another boring name reports after the close is Cisco.
I've been a fan of a lot of the borings.
I've been a fan of the oils for a few months as well.
Internationals, chemicals, blah, blah, blah.
Just like Grandpa Joe, basically.
So, no, Cisco's got earnings.
We'll see if they could have some more, have another increase in revenue.
I think their revenue for networking, their networking revenue, I believe, was up pretty significantly last quarter.
And I think that's kind of like the driver here.
If you think that the AI data center stuff is going to be a thing that persists, then a lot of these networks need to keep up with that.
You can't have all this iteration, all this inference, all this compute without having
the ability to access it quickly. So I like Cisco. I know Monitivs. I see Monitivs down
there. Monitivs is another Cisco OG. Outside of that, I think it's just, you know, like
rotations from the same same story rotations from the iFlyers rotations from the tech sexy
name type thing to free cash flow, stuff that's got international tailwind and stuff that's got lower spend and increase in margins and so on and so forth.
So you can go from digital to physical.
That's another way people have been saying it.
That one kind of tracks as well.
You basically need to have your physical build out for, you know, whatever economic boom you want to see.
If you want to see, like, the data center thing play out, you want to see the AI thing play out,
you do need energy to run that.
You do need some shovels literally in the ground, so on and so forth. forth and then um you know if you're gonna you know strengthen the the economy and strengthen
the the country in a multipolar world then that fracture kind of creates a demand for
a lot of the legacy boring stuff like defense and so on so it's kind of like what's been working
not kind of that is what's been working uh there was a brief reprieve in
some of these software names uh last time i talked to you guys i was saying that you know some of
them look good for a trade um i picked up some stuff i picked up like some paypal um just off
the back of the selling and and uh the the buyback i think the buyback now by the end of the selling and the buyback. I think the buyback now by the end of the year
should account for like 16%,
which is like really eating up a lot of the share count.
And it doesn't take much for something
to kind of like turn around, even if it's brief, right?
So like you saw some of these sharp reversals
on some of these names up 25, 30% like a week.
It's kind of like the same mantra.
It's not like something that I'm looking for like to be the core staple of the portfolio or something like that.
But some of these reversions, if you just go 5 to 10% in a basket, you just need one to kind of like really drive return and make it worthwhile
um beyond that I just I think um I think whenever you get like a pull forward or you get like
a a sharp rip higher like we've had on a lot of the names here to start the year
that's for me that's kind of like where I start to play a little bit of defense.
You know, taking chips off the table.
So, like I mentioned Cisco.
Like Cisco, I've been long and talking about Cisco since like the 50s.
The calls I have are up significantly.
So, like in a situation like that, I just reduce exposure and roll them up.
So, you know, I can stay in the trade, still have like, the leverage that I want, but
my, you know, my cost on the table basically comes down. And I think that's the same,
the same thing with a lot of these names. So like I've talked about like Valero, Schlumberger,
COP, CVX, Exxon's actually, ironically, the one I don't own.
But same kind of logic applies.
For a lot of those today, I just kind of took a lot off the table
just in the short term.
Some of these chemical plays that have kind of ripped up
into the right pretty aggressively.
I think part of that's currency, part of that's, you know, the energy,
the energy theme in general, part of that's just fortune. But I took a lot of that stuff off. I do
think that if you have these structural inflation narratives still drive out that there's going to
be other stocks that kind of like follow. So I started kicking
the tires on some of these, you know, food relative names. So like something like a mosaic,
ConAgra, and so on and so forth. You know, ConAgra in particular, I posted a chart this morning.
It's coming up on a pretty major downtrend it's reclaimed it's 200 day thing kind
of looks a little violent um it's very boring so so it might not be for hamid but uh the options
are cheap especially if you go out you know beyond eight months so like you got to 2028 you can get
options for really cheap and it doesn't take much for a name if you take a look like any of the other
beaten up names that
have kind of rallied that have been boring the last few weeks some of these chemical names some
of these like tanker names some of these oil names so on um it doesn't take much and once you get a
little bit of momentum in some of these things they they really rip aggressively on the front end
and that's where you can kind of like uh take costs or like, you know, spread out or do whatever you want to do from if you're an options trader.
And then the other the other benefit is because because it's like because taking the bet is so cheap, your your for two years out. You know, for call it like less than five, call it less than four grand if you pull the
right lever.
So anyways, that's kind of like the gist of it.
I do think that as far as like the job number is concerned, I do think that I thought it
was like a really weird number
i wouldn't be and this is like tinfoil whatever but i wouldn't be surprised if that number got
revised in a few months um and then people just kind of look back at it and be like i knew it was
something was off but uh it was just like a perfectly timed perfect time to have a blowout
number that nobody really expected so um but that's just tinfoil. Beyond that,
I hate your Apple. I just want to say that because every time
that it looks like it's going to hold things together,
something comes out of left field.
At the same time, it is rough, but at the same time, I don't think it really
drives the needle for that stock right now now I think that one is more of like a place
it doesn't there you know there stops they'd be down four or five percent off
of that Apple with all yeah one percent of lower you brought up the jobs number
for the last couple years a constantly revising at the end of the year the jobs
numbers down and even I think how Powell two minutes ago said we think that every jobs reports off by 60,000
it should be 60,000 lower they kind of factor that into that when they do
their planning so I'm with you even the feds with you on that one but I think
it's it's it might be even more than that 60,000 number nothing you know it
could be but I mean at least they're doing something. They're not just taking this at base value.
They're saying,
okay, if it's 130, well, we're going to
meet, then it's about 70 probably.
I got a couple of comments
on Wolfie's overall comments.
And then
I got to jump off because I got to
prepare for the podcast.
But PayPal, that is a very, very attractive valuation.
PE of eight, share buybacks going on.
Super awesome.
The only reason I'm not in PayPal is because leadership, right?
Like they basically brought in a CEO about less than a year ago, if I'm not mistaken, and they already fired them.
So any new CEO they bring on board. So like, hey, that was a mistake of the boards or either they mishired or the, you know, and the CEO was bad.
They hired a bad person or they just didn't give this person enough time to fix the problems. And when you don't give enough time for somebody to fix the problems
in a longer-term basis,
even your next CEO has to be very, very short-term focused,
meaning they have to try to turn the company around in six months
before they get fired in nine or 12 months, right?
You know what this sounds like to me?
I'm sorry, a little off reference.
This sounds like being a New York Jets fan for my entire life
and just watching coach after coach get fired.
But I apologize.
You can go.
But that's what I'm sitting here thinking about is PayPal, my New York Jets.
I wouldn't want to owe my New York Jets as a stock.
Think of it as like in 2022 when everybody was predicting doom and gloom for Facebook and
meta that like, it's over, they're done. TikTok's taking their business. You know, nobody uses
social media anymore. If, if they didn't have a founder who basically could not give it rat's ass
about what people thought in the short term and was sort of like building for the long term and
very focused on, you know, a multi-year turnaround for the company as opposed to trying to make things
work in six months. Meta would have gone through three, four CEOs by now because no one would have
been able to turn it around in six months. In fact, after people started saying those things
about Meta, they were kind of correct for the next year. And Meta just kept going down and down and down further. And even their revenue started going down for a little
bit before, and profitability was down substantially before things turned around. So my concern with
PayPal is that the leadership kind of sucks, but the price, man, that is super attractive.
I kind of want to be in it. I'm going to have FOMO if PayPal goes up for sure.
On the other names, though, when I look at a Honeywell or a Cisco, then the value part
of me kicks in and it's like, okay, these companies are trading at a PE of 22, 23, which
is roughly the same PE as a meta.
is roughly the same PE as like a meta,
why would I want to own a slower growth company
that is not able to scale as quickly as a digital company,
since you compared it to that,
for a higher price basically on a per dollar of profits
than I would one of these other companies
that are growing faster.
So when I compare most of these companies to a company like Meta, I end up sort of like
preferring that. And then if you compare it to faster growth, smaller companies, that they're
even more attractive, like Robinhood, for example. So that's sort of like my perspective on those.
I mean, yeah, Cisco might do well, but like right now it's growing at like seven, eight
percent.
Um, it's nothing to write home about.
Even if it doubles that growth rate, it'll still be slower than meta.
It'll be like on par maybe with Microsoft.
Um, but anyway, that, that, that is the reason I'm not in those companies. But great chatting with you guys as always.
I'm going to take off here.
Thanks, Evan.
Thanks, Mike and everybody else.
Appreciate you, Hamid.
As always, I always like to say you should check out the speakers.
Give them a follow.
We got a lot of fantastic, smart people coming through this space and trying to send out some great invites as well.
So check them out.
We appreciate you.
And also, you know what?
I don't say this that often.
I'm curious in who you guys would love to have on these spaces who you would want to join into these conversations join the panel so if you guys just tag some people down below i'll uh i'll
take a look through that and uh maybe we get some of those people on send out a couple of the ends
get a good little uh little situation going on there but, this has been a fantastic show so far. I do
want to quickly say we are going to have some earnings coming
up here around 4, 4.05,
4.10. Maybe
don't have... Whatever. I'll just go through it. We have
McDonald's, Apple Lovin', which I think a lot
of people will be looking at, APP,
Cisco, which Wolfie has been talking about.
They report earnings, Grab. I know Amit,
a lot of his crew, his cycles throughout,
a lot of Grab shareholders there.
And then a few other earnings, QuantumScape, Miking Therapeutics, HubSpot, Album Arlay, Equinox, Equinix.
Maybe is actually how that would be said.
A lot of companies will be reporting earnings today after the close.
We will be covering that live on these spaces as well.
Mr. Logical, do any of your companies report earnings today?
I had Global Foundry's report today.
They had a good report.
The stock's really cheap.
It's writing all the right...
It's saying all the right things.
They're trying to get ahead in physical AI.
They're in the foundries.
They're a foundry, obviously. So anything that's right now in the semi-CapEx cycle tied to AI is a big winner.
And this thing is trading at like, I don't know, 20 times cash flow, 20 times free cash
flow, maybe a little bit higher on gap earnings.
But I think they're at an inflection point.
So the chart looks beautiful.
Yeah, I was a little concerned,
because yesterday there was some selling. I woke up this morning at like 5am, stock was up like 5%.
I read the report. And I'm like, Oh, no, this is great. And the stock's up 5%.
So I reentered the stock this morning. And as soon as the so I got a nice share position. And then
I added calls, basically the calls I was in before. I re-entered them at the open and the stock's been kind of grinding up higher the whole day.
And I think GFS can go a lot higher because it's kind of like an inflection point.
Chart looks really good.
I have, oh, I don't have any other earnings today.
I am looking at ASND, which I was talking about yesterday, which is a healthcare name,
$11 billion market cap.
No position. I did have one, but I don't know. I'm still thinking about the risk-reward there.
We'll see if they report after the bell. Tomorrow, I think after the bell, I have 10X Genomics,
TXG. I think JAG is also a fan of that company. But they already reported preliminary numbers at JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, just like many other biotech and healthcare stocks do.
And I mean, the thing is cheap.
It's like two or it's like three times you need a sales and the sales are inflecting.
And if you know anything about like this whole bioprocessing area, a lot of those businesses are inflecting.
Just like we've seen with Twist.
I mean, Twist has been one of the biggest winners of the year, TWST. TXG is not as exciting of a business. It's more academic focused.
But the stock is way cheaper than Twist. So Twist has like more commercial applications
and they're getting a lot more use cases. So I think the upside on Twist is a lot higher,
but the downside is more capped on TXG.
I don't know if that's going to be famous last words, but the stock is quite cheap and
it's inflecting.
The chart looks really beautiful on TXG.
I'll give just general comments on the market.
I was surprised today that we faded on that jobs report because we got Hassett and Navarro
talking about how we should revise you know, we should revise,
like they're telegraphing an awful jobs fair. And then all of a sudden you get like this huge beat.
You know, so I, you know, I was of the mind that maybe last week when we got that other challenger jobs report with the layoffs being like 10 year highs or whatever, you know, that,
that was maybe kind of the whisper. And maybe, you know, people have been thinking, scratching
their heads like, hey, what is the reason for the choppiness and the selling lately?
And in my head, okay, you get that layoff report, not great.
People start selling ahead of the NFP.
Maybe it's sell the rumor.
You get the retail sales, they're below expectations.
This is kind of confirming that.
And today, all of a sudden, you get to blow out NFP number.
I'm like, okay, hold on.
So we sold the rumor, but the news was not as FP number. I'm like, okay, hold on.
So we sold the rumor, but the news was not as, it's not even bad, it's really good.
So I expected this rally to sustain this morning.
So I got incrementally bullish and I started adding back a long exposure and I just got absolutely stuffed on a lot of holdings that I added pre-market today.
So I think that caught me off guard.
But it's a lot better than the alternative, which is the job numbers were horrible.
And we just like, you know, we're down 2% on the index today.
So yeah, just a little caught off guard by that.
But you know, as long as the macro data holds up, there's really nothing to be too scared about.
But there's a clear bifurcation in the market.
You mentioned AppLovin reporting today.
I mean, go look at that chart.
Go look at, you know, Palantir, Hood, LEU, like a lot of the stocks that have gone absolutely
parabolic over the last couple years, they're up like 10x or whatever, 5x, 10x in the last two
years. I mean, they're just taking a breather and people are taking profits. But those charts look
broken right now. And so, you And so if you're buying them here,
it's just a really tough thing
because they're still up 10 to 20x off their lows,
like in the case of Robinhood and Palantir.
So maybe the more downside there
as those stocks need to find the bottom.
But it's just a little bit frustrating,
I'm sure for a lot of market participants, specifically retail.
Because the things that have been working for the last two years are not working this year.
And it's not even that they're not working to the upside.
They're absolutely getting destroyed to the downside.
So yeah, it is a tough year.
And a lot of tech isn't working either.
And I think the difference is, though, it's like, I don't want to be bearish.
Because the truth is that
there's a lot of sectors that are working.
We've known this, industrials, materials, staples, energy.
If it was just staples and energy, I'd be a little more concerned.
But the macro data is holding up.
It's showing that manufacturing is kind of inflecting to the upside.
So macro data is holding up and it's not just the defensive sectors.
It's also materials. It's also industrial. So
I think I was just saying to the compounded friends with downtown Joss Brown. Yesterday's
episode, they were talking about halo stocks, high asset, low obsolescence. I think that is the theme
for this year. I think the issue right now is, and obviously like you've seen it with hardware
versus software. The hardware names are just less disruptable by AI.
So I think a big thing is right now like we saw what happened with Charles Schwab yesterday.
You know somebody announces a tax software that can like automate taxes whatever you see
Schwab go down 7%.
So it's like going industry by industry like SPGIGI was down, Moody's. So AI is
potentially going to crush a lot of these sectors. So you have to be in a position right now if you
want to catch a bid as a stock where there is no such thing as disruption. And those are the
things that are working. So while it feels like tech and growth, they're not working,
or software is definitely not working.
It's almost like this market is extremely intentional in what it's bidding up.
So it's not, you know, the RSP is making new all-time highs today.
So is XLI, so is XLP, so is XLE, so is XLB.
So it's really tough.
But I think what I'm saying is that like you have to be in these kind of, it's like complete backwards.
Like your brain is going to explode thinking about this. But you know, what we've really
cherished for the last 10 years was these asset like companies that have high margins. Now,
if they're becoming commoditized, and now that you know, that narrative could be overblown.
But in the near term, it is definitely taking a hold. And the cloud narrative is only strengthening
day by day. In the near term, those things are
not going to catch a bid. And the things that are going to catch a bid are the things that
in the past we've looked at as, oh, these are lower margin businesses and they have a lot of
assets and debt and liabilities. But now that's seeming to be like a moat because you can't just
overnight disrupt that business. So they have a lot more staying power. I think that's been the case of why industrials and such are catching bids.
And if you look at SPY, SPY is holding up because while tech is drawing it down with the Qs,
RSP is making new highs. So that kind of tug of war that's happening is keeping the index
basically flat to slightly up. We'll see how that holds up.
But there have been a lot of charts about SPY value versus SPY growth.
And SPY growth is getting crushed while SPY value is just climbing higher.
And it's not necessarily, again, like, okay, so we just got a long value stocks.
I don't think that's the answer either.
I think the answer is because so many of these physical asset companies are
considered value stocks, not growth stocks, because of their, you know, the financial profile,
etc. of the business, you know, we're just thinking of this as like, oh, long value,
short growth. It's like, no, it's a lot more, it's bifurcated, but it's not bifurcated in that way.
It's bifurcated in the sense of what is now potentially re-rating
because it could be disrupted
and turn into lower margins,
commoditized like some software companies
versus things that cannot be disrupted overnight.
So I'm thinking a lot more.
And I think while people have probably
just been following trends and sector flows
and all that thing, You know, great.
I've been trying to understand what's been going on at a kind of like at a finer level.
And I think that, you know, that episode from the Compound of Friends yesterday is a good listen and they explain it.
So, yeah, that's all.
What's up, Wolfie? Yeah, it's not just AI disruption.
When you have the potential of going to a bifurcated multipolar situation where people
are trying to carve out land and carve out assets, some of these assets that these businesses own
end up having a higher intrinsic value on the back of that.
Because when you deglobalize things, it becomes more expensive to replicate some of those things.
So a good example of this would be railroads, right?
So if your labor costs go up and if your material costs are going to go up because
you're de-globalizing and to get things from certain places is going to go up, then the
intrinsic value of that network that's already online goes up, right? So he was talking about
this, the halo effect that Josh Brown was talking about, but which is, yeah, it's correct. But
there's also an additive that a lot of these, you know,
boomer boring names that we've been talking about and that I've been talking about,
their intrinsic value for some of the businesses that they have
or some of the assets that they have goes up
just on the back of the deglobalization thing.
I just kind of wanted to throw that in there.
is that?
I like to leave a little bit of a problem for people to jump back in.
I enjoy when people go back and forth.
So yeah,
no worries.
15 minutes to the close,
about 15 minutes until we get the earnings starting up here.
I did see Urkel joining us in this conversation. how are you doing sir i'm doing good thanks for having me on yeah i appreciate you jumping up here i wonder if you have any thoughts on uh what either logical
wolfie anyone else has been saying i saw you down there for a little bit i know you're a little bit
more of a technical uh guy as well so i don't know if there's any charts that are interesting
for you any of the earnings coming up after the close today, that type of thing. I appreciate your joining.
Yeah, you bet.
I've just been kind of playing the market trend
and it's been very volatile changes from day to day.
But when you zoom out SPY,
I mean, all it did this morning
was drop to back test the 5.9 EMAs on the daily.
It continues to remain strong.
And in this kind of environment,
it's actually quite conducive
to my short-term trading style. I tend to thrive in this environment because I'm a technical trader.
So I've taken the opportunity to add to long-term positions as well. Like I added a little bit of
Robinhood today, but I've been trading the technicals and the technicals have been super
reliable. And in particular, for those of you who use the Fibs, if you use the 0.618 Fib on numerous
charts, there's been plenty of opportunities for trades over the last couple of weeks. Excuse my
dog. So one I was looking at today, I added EOSE, a technical trade off the 1140 support.
It's had a nice little bounce.
The daily is still quite weak, but that is an area where it based around Christmas time
and then went on a rally from 1140 or so.
It rallied all the way up into 18 and change at the start of 2026.
So I jumped back in that
one today. Robinhood, the 618 Fib level, $77. Last week it flushed below that, but it bounced back.
So even though it broke down one day on the daily chart, it held on the weekly just fine.
That level for Palantir is $134. That's one I'm watching personally to get back into.
So, you know, IRON and CIFR, I know there are a couple of really popular names.
IRON, that key level is $40 to $41.
It was $32 last week.
That you can see it dipped right down to $40 today and bounced back.
So in our Discord and with my subscribers, like I've been taking these
trades almost daily. CIFR is another one. If that reclaims $16.50 and it had a big price upgrade
yesterday, that can go on a run. So the high beta stocks are very, very tradable in the short-term
volatile environment. And that works really well for me because I follow my charts to kind of to
a T. Like if it reaches my support area, I will buy, I will trade it, I will trade a bounce. Some
days it's 2%, some days it's 10, 12, 15%, just depending on the broad market trend and strength.
So there's a lot of charts. So ONDS, that's another popular name. So that key level there is $8.90 off our charts.
And today it dipped down to $8.88 and then it's bounced to $9.20, $9.30. So these kind of daily
two to five percent bounces have been there every day. In the volatility and in this kind of ranging
market, the key is just not to chase into resistance levels.
Some days the dips come, some days they don't.
And I've just kind of stayed patient and tried to execute without any preference to any given name.
But I personally tend to profit in these environments, trading the high beta names off key support.
Because the liquidity is there,
the volume is there, the demand is there. And if you catch them in the right spots,
you can often catch some great bounces. So those are a few with key levels. Another one is Rocket
Labs. That key level is $68 down to $61. It's been holding that range really well since last week after a run up to the 90,
I think it went up to 95, 96 recently. So that's another one too. Sorry, I'm out of breath. I just
left the gym. So yeah, I've personally... What'd you do in the gym today?
Cardio day today. Cardio day? What's your cardio days?
I do the elliptical machine. i fucking hate it every single day but i
go into it yeah i'm uh i don't i'm not a cardio guy but baseball season is around the corner
thumbs down from stock talk is it that cardio or is it the type of cardio i hate cardio i fucking
hate cardio like i despise it man but baseball season's around the corner and I kind of plumped up over the winter,
so I can't show up out of shape in April. So I thought I'd start getting on an elliptical
machine again. But just one note on hood, I thought Hamid did a great job just kind of talking about
the overall picture and, you know, some of the things I really like that I heard on the earnings
call, because, you know, the market is forward looking, as most of you, you know, well-established traders know.
So you get the initial reaction post earnings because you had a miss.
But then you start kind of looking at, OK, so we got the miss, but where's this company headed?
Because, again, the markets will react initially to the catalyst.
But then I'm listening for clues like where is this
business going? So one thing I really liked that Vlad mentioned is that they are expanding into
several other international markets this year. For me, that's been really big because for the
most part, their business has been restricted to two markets. I know they had made a strategic
acquisition in Canada too, I think was
last year or the year before. And so he didn't disclose where they're moving into, but that
opens up a whole other, you know, opportunity to expand. And they talked about their trading
volumes being down going into the end of the year. But I think it was at the CFO who mentioned those volumes have come right
back up in January. So some of that won't be reflected in the earnings. So for me personally,
I like the dip. I bought some today. I'll probably buy more if it drops below $70,
but that's more of a long-term play. So just to kind of conclude, I've got this long term portfolio and a longer term swing portfolio that I kind of add to and subtract from less frequently.
And while the markets are going through this earning season, and we saw this last two earning seasons going back to, I think it was July, August, this kind of volatility.
August, this kind of volatility. If you can survive it, not make mistakes or compound mistakes
and compound losses, generally you come out of it on the other end with plenty of opportunities
to capitalize. And I'm personally getting better at that. I used to be more of an aggressive dip
buyer and I've kind of learned to categorize my positions in longer term swing versus day trade or overnight swing trades.
And I've taken the opportunity to be more aggressive on my technical charts and trade
the technical levels more frequently, which I used to shy away from, but it just really,
really works in this market. So unless SPY and the Qs break down significantly,
and unless Bitcoin and Ethereum break down significantly and all four are holding key demand this week again, and they did so last week again, I will continue to take advantage of those dips, particularly on the high beta names when they drop down to demand levels because they almost always provide some level of a bounce. And I'll just keep taking advantage of these conditions
until we either break out higher or break down,
at which point I will de-risk, add a hedge, get through it,
and then kind of revisit the strategy as things change.
So that's just kind of where I've been at.
Thanks for the opportunity to speak.
Appreciate it.
Thank you for hanging out with us giving a little bit also some insights into what the workout regimen looks like as well it's always a good time on spaces
everyone up here yeah sorry i just wanted to say um you know i think urkel and many other day
traders uh off into it this is definitely a good environment because it's just chop zone.
So it's like if that's what you excel in, this is a great environment. If you are like trying to long like swing trading right now is really tough. Long term investing right now is really
frustrating. I'm sure for a lot of people who want to own the best of, you know, best in class
businesses that they know are going to compound for decades. Like you can't even like right now, like, you know, that would be the mag seven.
But like in this, you know, investment a year or two or whatever, and you know, it's really
tough to get them off the mat.
So it's like you have to either have really high duration or it's just kind of like a
take profits kind of market.
I mean, look at Shopify this morning opens up 10%, now down 10%.
But that's a huge swing.
And that's kind of telling you that this market is like, if something is at all iffy,
like if it's in the wrong sector, like software or tech or whatever,
it's like the bounces and the rips are very short lived.
And so it's just been a take take profit kind of market five minutes to the close five minutes left in the day stock talk i wonder if you have any thoughts
on the uh i don't know if there's someone else was i mean there but no it sounds like it was
good uh you got any thoughts on the conversation we've been having so far?
Any of the earnings after the closing?
I didn't hear the initial conversation, but I mean, I had a great day today.
GLDD got bought out this morning.
Wait, actually, like acquired or it just went up?
Yeah, acquired.
Oh, interesting.
I would have liked it to be at a higher premium, but I mean...
What are we doing? It's a 5%. Come on, guys.
Who's negotiating this?
I don't know. I don't know.
But I think probably what happened is that they were in negotiations already for a buyout.
I got long on GLDD three-ish weeks ago, middle of January at $13.90.
And then this morning they got bought out 17 a share.
I mean, it'll close sometime in Q2, but I sold today. I mean, it went up to like 1695,
five cents away from the acquisition price. I'm not going to wait, you know, a quarter for that to close. Like I just sold today into that. So that was nice. I mean, 21% on equity, 250 ish
percent on the calls in a couple of weeks.
I'll take that. So I booked the gain on that today.
And so now I have a bunch of cash that I need to figure out what to do with.
But that was great to see. I mean, I imagine Salt Chuck, who bought them today, who's a private company.
I imagine they were thinking the same thing about Great Lakes Dredge and Dock that I was when I first shared the thesis.
I actually talked to you guys about it here on Spaces when I opened the position in the middle of January.
So hopefully some of you got in on that.
But that was a nice win to secure today earlier in the early in the year.
Usually I don't sell my swing positions that early three weeks in.
But, you know, it gets bought out. It gets bought out.
So I would have liked to see it taken out
at like 21 or 22 a share.
I think that's fair value
based on the research I've done.
I mean, they're the largest dredging contractor
in the country,
but I think Salt Chuck got a deal here.
Pretty good deal.
You know, they're buying them out
at 1.5 billion in transaction value, 17 a share.
So that was awesome.
Secured some good gains on on that very good gains on that
that was a pretty decently large position for me so it was almost a seven percent weighting going
into today and then they get bought out so I cleared that off the deck today Synaptics is
having a nice session today back over 90 I upsized that position earlier this week Amcor hit new 52
week highs this morning as well.
That's been between my first and second largest position for about nine months now,
and that continues to soar and perform really well in a choppy environment, actually.
If you look at that chart year-to-date, it's done very, very well.
So I am totally fine with how this market's working.
I know a lot of people are, like, complaining about the environment.
I don't see it that way. I mean, I think there's been a lot of degrossing in expensive names that ran a lot last year, which is totally okay. And I own some of those, but they're
pretty small weightings in my portfolio compared to the newer positions. So it hasn't really
affected my performance that much. My year-to-date performance as of today especially after the GLDD deal is back to
49% year-to-date so I'm pretty happy with that you know less than a month and
a half in that's one of my better month and a half in performances on a year to
year basis that I think I've ever had so very very pleased with the performance
of the portfolio overall very very pleased with
my stock picking so far so um yeah very happy with everything pangie logistics touching nine
bucks today as well which is one of my other plays uh from this year so the three from this year gldd
synaptics and and pan pangie logistics so far and all of them have performed pretty well so far so
geologistics so far and all of them have performed pretty well so far so I really
like how that synaptics weekly chart is shaping up here especially after today's
move and you know I'd like to see that moving average pinch happen on the
weekly with a nine week EMA and the 200 week moving average overhead I'd like to
see those pinch together and lead to a breakout ideally.
But the synaptic story, I think, is very compelling. I talked about it a lot, obviously, in the last couple of weeks. I think the humanoid angle is very, very compelling.
And I think the stock, even without the humanoid angle, is cheap for how they're growing. So
like that one, I talked about that today on Hamid's show as well, retweeted that space.
If you guys are interested, you can find that on my page.
And go and give that a listen if you are interested in synaptics at all.
Amcor, continue to hold it.
Was that a space or did you go on his live stream?
No, we just did a space.
We brought back Equity Edge today.
So first Equity Edge episode of the year.
Yeah, I mean, the last – so I've done done what uh six total pitches on equity edge so far the first two were amcor and p lab that's when amcor was 30 bucks p lab was 23 amcor
since then is up 90 p labs up 70 since then um i touched on via v2 uh on those episodes that was
when it was 17 bucks that sucks 2727 now I touched on GXO as
well in those conversations that was 53 today that's 65 and so pretty much all
the stocks I touched on have gone up a THR as well touched on that in the 30s
and 40s and you know that's now in the 50s so not pretty much every stock
every single stock I've talked about an Equity Edge is between 50% to 90% higher.
Every single stock.
So I'm pretty proud of that.
I'm pretty proud of the stock picking there.
Haven't given them one loser the entire time we've done that show.
And it's a pretty volatile market in the months since we started that show. Last October is when we started it actually prior to the momentum sell-off in november and december and prior to the volatility of this year and all those
stocks are still up magnitudes um especially versus their peers so very very pleased with the
stock picking um so far um and even this year i'm very very pleased with the stock picking that I've done so far so yeah sticking to my process you know it's a process that I've spent many years developing
my mid-cap stock picking process and it has worked in bear markets and bull markets and
choppy markets alike and it continues to work and so I don't have any cause to deviate from that
process today.
I mean, even with how choppy, I'll put that choppy in quotation marks because I don't really think it's been as choppy as people think it have.
I think a lot of times what happens is people project their own stock picking onto the market.
When they're doing bad, they're like, oh, this market sucks or this market's tough.
It's usually just a product of you're picking the wrong stocks.
That's really, really, again, hard for people to hear that, especially experienced people.
I mean, I know traders with a decade plus of experience who are struggling a lot this year.
They're blaming the market rather than blaming their stock picking, which I think is childish.
ish. Everyone knows market regimes change. They change violently. And sometimes, you
Everyone knows market regimes change.
They change violently.
have to do more than just monitor the charts or do more than just monitor what face value
is from a value standpoint. And I think a lot of people are failing to do that in this
environment. And as a consequence, they're buying the wrong stocks at the wrong times. Sometimes they're buying the right stocks at the wrong times.
But, you know, wrong time is the operative phrase there, I think.
And so timing is very important in a market like this, as is not buying overextended charts.
You know, there's a bull markets, especially at their peak, breed this habit of people
buying every pullback to like the 9 or 21 EMA.
And that doesn't work when regimes start shifting in markets, which is what's happening.
And, you know, there has been more of a preference for value in the last five to six months, but it hasn't been a preference for traditional value.
It's been a preference for the undervalued names in the relevant sectors.
And these blips of rotation we've seen to industrials, transports, home builders, etc.,
I think have been short-lived for a reason traditionally. And I think they'll continue
to be short-lived in this bull market. I still think you need to be looking at the sexy sectors
and just looking at the names in those sexy sectors that have a value component
to them, you know, and if you can find names in these attractive sectors that have a value
component to the business, in other words, in some metric, they're reasonably valued,
and they're growing their top and bottom line, even if it's in a muted fashion, even if it's
in a high single digits fashion, those are the best stocks to be in, I think, right now.
And so that's kind of where I'm focused.
We did get some earnings.
Sorry if it did some weird stuff on the microphone.
from the microphone. I see my headphones out there for a second.
I said I had phones out there for a second.
McDonald's stock did come out with some numbers.
McDonald's stock did come out with some numbers.
Beat on EPS,
beat on revenue, beat on comparable
same stores in the US
and global. McDonald's stock up
2% in after hours.
Mickey Deeds.
I hear it has some great macros if you don't eat the
bun stock top.
Big bulking guy.
You need carbs if you work out.
McDonald's stock is moving higher, though.
Like I said, pretty much most of the numbers there did look good.
Apple 11 just came out.
I don't quite have the numbers in front of me this second.
But APP, how is this stock moving?
APP stock is up 2% initially.
Following its numbers numbers 4%.
I will get those in front of me right now.
5, 6.
There you go.
A nice move.
Apple numbers, 1.65 billion versus 1.61 billion expected.
EPS, 3.24 versus $2.94 expected.
I'm seeing Cisco numbers out
Wolfie. I haven't seen them just yet either, but
Cisco's initial move is up by 2%.
Cisco numbers
15.34 billion
versus 15.12 billion expected.
1.04 EPS
versus 1.02 EPS expected.
Give me a beat miss.
They both beats, both misses.
I honestly...
Both beats.
Double beat for Cisco,
double beat for Apple.
Oh, AMC also just reported earnings.
Apparently, I'm seeing...
There you go.
Were there any AMC apes down below?
I am just posting it to me quickly.
Cisco stock is up one.
App Lovin hanging out up one, 2% here.
Did you read out App Lovin?
Yes, sir.
You want to hear it again?
Yeah.
1.65 billion.
1.61 billion expected.
EPS at $3.24.
Expected $2.94.
Have you seen any other numbers yet?
I'm actively searching for AAPP is one that a lot of people are interested in
probably the biggest one of the day
Cisco, you also said with the beat there
and see for Apple 11, forward guidance
is a little bit above expectations
1.75, 1.76 billion is what they expect.
1.69 billion is what Wall Street was expecting.
So a little bit of a beat there on mute forward guidance.
Yeah, even also above expectations.
I'm a little bit surprised that stock is not moving higher there.
Cisco, profitability was a beat.
Top line performance was a beat operating margin 34.6 percent
there we go with Sam solid off child to the solid report Cisco sees this full
year revenue it's our full year EPS coming in between four dollars and 13
cents to four dollars and 17 cents the news here is that that is up from what Sorry, full year EPS coming in between $4.13 to $4.17.
The news here is that that is up from what they had previously guided towards.
So Cisco increasing its fiscal year adjusted EPS guidance.
A little bit higher.
Yeah, they also increased their revenue guidance a little bit.
a little bit.
Yeah, they also increased their revenue guidance a little bit for Cisco.
Yeah, we also increased the revenue guidance a little bit
for Cisco.
Will, if you got any initial thoughts,
anything crossing the wire there on the Cisco?
Now it's moved a little lower here, but
let's play it around.
No, I have to
read through it.
I think the
Apple 11 number, though, looks
pretty good.
And their guidance is going to catch people off guard.
Stock is now moving lower.
App11 down 6% in after hours.
There you go.
I think there must be something in those numbers,
or maybe it's just priced to perfection,
but the App11 shareholders, I hope they don't celebrate it too early.
I'm just talking about their guidance, their EPS and all that stuff.
Yeah, there's got to be something.
HubSpot beat by Tencent, beat on revenues, EPS above consensus, revenues above consensus, 26 above consensus, and then a $1 billion share buyback.
Take a look at that chart that
thing's been beaten to hell uh if they can't bounce on the back of this i don't know what
will get it to go we just start out starting to rain now by me that is always a fun time
i was outside as well so now i'm getting flipped. What is up, Sam Solid? How you doing?
Sam, I don't know if you've had a chance to look at any of these
earnings. We read most of them out,
just the headline numbers, but I don't know if there's
anything else that's interesting for you.
If we have
a Sam Solid up here.
Evan, are you standing in the
rain doing spaces? No.
I was sitting outside on the balcony, not in the rain doing spaces no I was sitting
outside on the balcony not
in the rain and then it started to rain
and I tried to go to Sam so that I
could move the desk inside
but Sam didn't answer so I kind of was
just standing in the rain there for a second
it's okay though we move on
spaces I made it inside
Apple 11 stock now down 10%
wow this is an interesting one.
There must be something in these numbers.
That's insane.
Holy shit.
This is what I was saying.
The popular growth stocks
over the last two years are cooked.
Revenue guidance is above expectations for APP.
APP.
We really haven't seen anything run this earnings season
or even hold the run, even on strong earnings.
Nothing's really taken off.
You can see Teradyne.
That's one.
There's a lot of them, man.
They're just very selective.
Yeah, man.
You have to be like...
I'm pretty sure Stock Talks VIAVI also went on.
Yep, and Thurman grew to THR.
I suspect...
And Amcor.
On Semi. Let's go.
I can't find Apple Evans margins anywhere.
Has anybody been able to see that?
If you're an Apple Evans bull,
you gotta pray that
right now in the after hours hours this minus 10% move
is just a gap fill because it literally went right down to that gap and you just gotta cross
your fingers but let me tell you a lot of these names popular growth names for the last two years
are just look like they're gonna keep rolling over synaptics just closed above its 200 week
moving average for the first time in three years too let's go man you know me I'm loaded up with that shit yeah I know I actually want to get it up to 10% waiting ideally but I mean dude I
think I have like 8% now let me see I'm close to yeah I'm at 9% right now nice 3% of that being
calls I trimmed like some of the calls and I just moved over to shares. I think maybe that was a mistake, but it's all right.
I'm mostly sharing on that too.
I just don't want to deal with calls and volatile markets.
I just got into the calls.
I got into the 80 calls when it was at 74.
So I got in early.
That's why it wasn't worth it.
So you still had them for a while, yeah.
Yeah, they're up like 150%, so I just kind of trimmed some just the right size.
Because it's starting to become like a 7-8% position in calls.
Yeah, if you can get a monthly close above 90 on that, that'll be really pretty.
Really pretty. We'll see.
Yeah, man. Look, I think it's very clear what's working,
which is why I like this GFS, man.
You should check it out.
I think you might like it, dude.
I looked at it last year.
I like it.
I don't love it, but I like it.
It's solid.
I mean, it's not expensive,
and they just had a good report.
So, yeah, it's solid.
I looked at it last year for a while.
Look at the candles that I did.
Yeah, no, very nice day today.
I saw it.
I think it's like maybe a one-year high or something today.
Yeah.
I looked at that late last year with SEMA and a few others,
but some of them got away from me.
Why didn't you buy Silicon Motion?
There's a lot of factors.
I mean, I looked at like 12 different
semiconductor names late last year after Amcor and P lab. And then after I sold P lab on the
earnings gap up when it gapped up like 40%, I like had some liquidity available. So I looked
at Silicon motion. I looked at Rambus on the memory side. I looked at GFS. I looked at a serious logic. I looked at so many names and
I ended up just liking synaptics the best out of them out of the group. But I mean,
I don't dislike the other names I mentioned there. Like I don't dislike GFS or Silicon
motion or any of those names, but yeah, I don't buy extension ever. Like I never buy extended
stocks just like against my rules and like at this
point silicon motion is is extended right i mean it's like extended on the monthly the weekly and
the daily like i'm not buying it you know so i care a lot about my entry it's like what allows
me like for me for my strategy cost base is everything like it's everything because that's
why i don't panic and like moments of volatility at all. It allows me to maintain conviction in positions and just sit through insane amounts of volatility.
Sometimes to get to five or six beggar status, not sometimes, in all cases, to get to five or six beggar status, you have to sit through 20 or 30% drawdowns.
It's impossible.
I don't know a single five-bagger in my career,
in the 14 years I've been trading,
I don't know a single one that hasn't had moments
where it had a 30% drawdown from the highs
or a 40% drawdown from the highs.
I don't know a single one.
So if you want stocks that super perform
over a multi-year period,
you have to sit through insane volatility it is a requirement and if you don't have a good cost basis
that's impossible to do like if you buy some of these stocks close to the highs
not even at the highs even 10 15 percent from the highs with monthly or weekly
charts that are super extended that have moving averages that are 20 or 30%
apart from each other, you're not going to hold.
Because there is going to be a moment in that trade where you're down on equity 25 or 30%.
No one who's using real size sits through a drawdown like that, right?
If you're a million dollars in a stock and you have a 30% drawdown, you're just like
wide-eyed holding it.
That's bad risk
management, right? So you either pick being a good risk manager or you pick being a short-term
trader in those scenarios. But if you want to do both, if you want to be a good risk manager
who is capable of holding three, four, five beggar stocks, then the only way to do that is cost-based
advantage. That's like the only way. Buying stocks when they're based out, when they're doing nothing,
and then just believing in the thesis and waiting for the breakout, that's the only way.
If you buy extended stocks, you'll just get buried. Not even in an environment like this,
even last year, like if you bought extended stocks the wrong time, let's say you bought extended momentum stocks in October, you're dead.
Like most of those had 40 or 50 percent drawdowns in a matter of three weeks in November to December.
How are you going to hold through that with real size? It's impossible.
And then you'll have cohorts of people that say, well, I dollar cost average. Like, what?
That doesn't matter.
That doesn't matter.
Again, if you're playing with real size, you dollar cost average, you do a 40% drawdown
from the highs.
Like, there's a massive amount of opportunity cost that's lost there, right?
Every incremental dollar you allocate at a higher price is you're losing X amount of incremental value that that dollar can add
to your performance.
Right?
You're buying a stock up at 70, then you're buying it at 65, then you're buying it at
60, all the way down to 40 bucks.
Like if the stock reverses and goes back to 100, you'll think you're a genius, but that's
not a repeatable strategy.
It's not.
You don't have unlimited money.
No one has unlimited money.
Even if your account is $100 million, it doesn't matter. You have limited capital and you have limited margin. And so deploying it flippantly, especially into downtrending stocks, is literally stupid.
they've misinterpreted quotes from people like Warren Buffett that they think are like investing
rules. And yeah, it's just cost basis is king in volatile markets. It's what allows you to sit
through it. And if you can't sit through it, you'll never get to like four or five, six beggar
stocks. It'll never happen. So yeah, coming from somebody that I, over my career, I've had like
a hundred plus multi beggar stocks, high conviction multibaggers.
Like you can go through my portfolio over years and years.
In my Discord, I've had a log active for four years.
You can see how many multibaggers are in there for all the members that are in there.
All of those I was able to hold because I had a deep cost-based event because I bought at the right time.
because I had a deep cost-based advantage, because I bought at the right time.
And so I strongly emphasize that people take that seriously.
Like, if you want to be somebody that can hold a portfolio of 10 or 15 stocks for multiple years
and see five or six of those stocks go through multi-bagger cycles, it's a requirement.
It's not a luxury. It's a requirement to be able to do that. So for people who want to super perform like that in markets, right? I mean, last year in October, if you bought
a 21 EMA pullback on momentum name, you got destroyed, right? If you had waited till mid
December, some of those were fantastic buying opportunities. And some of those stocks hit new
highs in January of this year, right? Because you were able to buy them at based out spots after
those 40 or 50% drawdowns, as opposed to buying them when the weekly and monthly charts were extended because you got FOMO.
Right. So if you're if you're a principled investor and you don't succumb to to greed and fear, which is obviously a very hard thing to do, and it takes years of practice, you buy the right spots.
years of practice, you buy at the right spots. That's how you win in markets. You win in markets
by buying at the right spots and then letting other people who are less disciplined chase.
And then you can dump your contracts on them and hold your shares. That's how you win.
And not enough people do that because everyone thinks that they're Warren Buffett. I'm going to
get DCA into everything in perpetuity. You don't have unlimited capital. You should put that on a
sticky note. Some of you should put that on a sticky note. I have limited capital and every
dollar you deploy has opportunity costs attached to it. Every dollar you deploy. So you should think
of your money like Kevin O'Leary says on Shark Tank. You should think of your money like little
soldiers that you're sending out to war and you want them to come back with more soldiers. You
know, you don't want to send away each dollar and just spend it flippantly like you're at a fire sale in a store, your favorite store.
That's not how it works.
You know, you see every time there's a momentum sell off and you see stocks down 10 or 12 percent, you have people on Twitter who are like, this is a crazy opportunity.
I should buy one.
There's blood in the streets. Like, really?
A 10 or 12% drawdown in a name that's up 800% in 16 months is an opportunity?
That's news to me, right?
That's not an opportunity at all.
That's an opportunity to maybe make a quick trade on a trending stock.
That's what that is.
That's not an opportunity to actually buy and hold, right?
Now, when you talk about a 40 or 50% drawdown on a really, really attractive name, yeah, then maybe you can start talking about that.
But again, it depends on the chart.
It depends on where it's fallen to.
As a stock that was formerly extended above all of its weekly and daily moving averages, fallen to the 21-month EMA maybe, you know, that can be an attractive buy spot, right?
But some of you are looking at too short of time frames and are expecting this market to just stay in a perpetual state of rolling higher.
And that's not how markets work.
There's going to be periods of regime change. We're seeing one in the last two weeks, certainly.
We saw one in November and December for about a three-and-a-half, four-week period.
And those small blips in the trend can kill you.
They can blow up your whole portfolio.
You know how many people's portfolios blew up in November and December of last year?
The answer is a lot.
And some successful traders do.
You know how many people have blown up their portfolios this year year
to date in a month and a half all the answer is a lot there's some guys that were posting year to
date screenshots every two weeks last year and haven't posted a single one this year why do you
think that is you think it's because they're doing well probably not probably not you know and the
same thing applies for nove and December of last year.
A lot of people stop posting their performance suddenly, right?
So don't succumb to temptation of like feeling like you're out of a trade that you should be in or shouldn't be in.
Like there's a lot of stocks that I want to own that I've looked at in the past that i've researched um that are up a lot
year to date i'm not buying them like because i value my cost-based advantage and i'm not going
to go and chase those stocks here now and then there's a market correction a month from now and
then i'm underwater on six names you know how many names i'm underwater in my portfolio right now out
of the well i own 17 as of this morning but i sold GLDD today because of the buyout. I'm down to 16 names. Do you know how many names I'm underwater on? Zero. Zero. I have zero red
positions in a basket of 16 stocks. That makes my life way easier. The markets could shop around
for the next three weeks. I wouldn't give a shit because I have such a deep cost disadvantage on
everything I own that it doesn't matter.
You know, and I can sit through drawdowns with a straight face and be like, hey, this
is part of the market.
Volatility is part of the market.
It's a lot easier to discount volatility as a natural consequence of the market if you're
But if your back is against the wall on cost basis, you can't just write it off as market
volatility because you have to manage risk. back is against the wall on cost basis, you can't just write it off as market volatility
because you have to manage risk.
When you're underwater, risk management becomes your priority, not sitting and holding and
diamond handing, right?
Diamond handing positions that you're down on is a losing game.
That's called bag holding.
You know, and some people like to present it as diamond handing as a euphemism, but that's bag holding you know some people like to present it as diamond handing as a as a euphemism but
that's bag holding and it's only diamond handing if you are up and if you can hold it through that
so these principles are very important to understand because you most of you who like
run around with chickens like you're with your head cut off on Twitter and just chasing whatever
stock is being talked about that's why you get punished by the market consistently, because you don't value
principles of investing and trading discipline. Like that is a hugely important thing in performance.
So, you know, again, I, I, I, I'm not just talking out of my ass here. You guys know,
I share my performance regularly and have shared it for years. And you guys know how well I do.
So I'm speaking from a position of authority here when it comes to actually being someone who super performs on markets.
So choose not to listen to me at your own risk.
But I know what I'm doing.
frustrating to me to see so many honestly smart people perform like shit in markets because
they're caught up on misinterpreting quotes from investing legends, which is really honestly what
the cancer is. Everybody posting, buy when there's blood in the streets. No one even knows what the
definition of blood in the streets is. A red day in the markets is not blood in the streets,
ladies and gentlemen. A minus 12% day in your favorite momentum stock blood in the streets, ladies and gentlemen.
A minus 12% day in your favorite momentum stock that's up 1,000% in 12 months is not blood in the streets.
Like, laser that into your head.
Put it on a sticky note.
Do whatever you need to do.
But remind yourself of that constantly.
And, you know, and if it takes, if it's necessary, some of you who think you know how to recharge may have to sit down and actually learn how to recharge
and actually understand what a based out stock is. Right. So these lessons are very important.
I don't just reiterate this stuff all the time. I'm doing it because I see people making these
mistakes over and over and over again, not just in my community, but on all over X. And it's frustrating me because it feels like a lot of these lessons
should have been learned over the course of this bull market. This bull market has had plenty of
volatility to learn these lessons. You know, if 2022 wasn't enough volatility for you to the
downside, I mean, there have been plenty of blips since then that have been brutal.
Last April was essentially a flash crash in face of the Liberation Day tariffs.
I mean, SPY fell, I don't know what the percentage was, but an enormous amount from the highs to the lows.
It fell to the 470s or whatever it fell to at the lows of the April correction.
So you had that, then you had the momentum sell-off
in November, December of last year.
You had a steep sell-off in August and July.
You had another momentum sell-off to start this year.
So there's been plenty of volatility to learn the lessons.
And if you still haven't learned those lessons,
then you're just being ignorant to the data
that's in front of you.
And for those of you that are not performing well,
that's an even more relevant thing.
Because if you're ignoring the data in front of you and not learning those lessons, and then on top of that, are not performing well, that's an even more relevant thing. Because if you're
ignoring the data in front of you and not learning those lessons, and then on top of that, consistently
underperforming, you're not applying anything. And you're not actually changing anything about
your strategy in light of that. So you should be doing that. And you should be altering your
strategy based on what is happening in front of you in markets. And the last thing I'll say on
this is for those of you who don't know how to observe price action, okay, which is perhaps the most important thing,
job that you have on a week to week basis as an investor or as a trader,
build a comprehensive watch list of the market, build a watch list that covers multiple industries,
multiple sectors that you're trying to monitor have four five six hundred stocks
on that watch list and flip through it every day and that will give you a grasp and perspective on
what is happening in the market on a granular level not just looking at a heat map right and
being like oh heat maps up or the health care is outperforming like
no build a granular watch list i have a watch list of a thousand stocks that i look at every
single week every week i look at it and i flip through it every day separated by industries
i've talked about it many times i flip through it and I immediately get a grasp of
what is working, what's not working, which names in which sectors are working, which names in which
sectors are underperforming. And I can attach rationale to that. I can attach narratives to
that. That's how you get adept at investing and trading. That's how you know where the money is
going. It's not just about looking at relative rotation graphs or any of that bullshit like that stuff can be useful heat maps relative rotation graphs it can be useful but
it's not going to give you a granular perspective like watching individual stocks will you know if
you want to if you want to know what's happening in industrials build an industrial watch list
put 12 stocks on it three small caps three mid three mid caps, three large caps, and watch it
like a hawk. That's how you get perspective on markets. It takes work. It's not just like
go to your favorite free financial info website and peep at the heat map. Anyone can do that.
Five-year-old can do that. That's not going to make you elite at the markets. The markets are
the most competitive sport in the world.
It's $70 trillion up for grabs between millions of participants.
Like, it is the most competitive game on earth.
And if you're not putting in more work than the guy next to you, you're not going to do well consistently.
You might do well in a year like last year where everything was a layup,
but you're not going to do well consistently.
You're not going to do well in a market like this, certainly. Because this certainly because this market's a lot more selective it's not a bad market by any
means i won't go there but it is a select highly selective market and even when you look at the
industries that are working not everything is working in those industries we were talking about
semiconductors doing well today there are a lot of semiconductors names up today.
They're not all up, right?
The ones that have a little bit more of a value angle to them are doing much better today than the ones who don't have a value angle, right? So attentiveness to that is extremely, extremely important.
And you have to decide how you want to approach data recognition like that.
decide how you want to approach data recognition like that.
But I mean, I've given some examples like what I do with these, you know, broad industry
based watch lists with constantly monitoring my own positions, my own charts on my own
stocks every day.
I do a chart review.
I'm starting to do a chart review every week for our group this year.
And so I've done like four already.
I just flip through the charts I own and tell people how to identify technical strength or technical weakness, right? And, you know, warning signs and red flags on
individual charts. So you have to learn a process and apply that process or else you will continue
to struggle. It's pretty simple. There we go. A good stock talk rant for the day it is a very good thoughts there knowing what you
know knowing what you own actually kind of digging into the stocks i think you gave obviously a much
better deeper recap than that but um a lot of times there's so many different plays and so
many different thoughts and so many things that come across our radars every single day. And a lot of times we're also coming from really smart people as well.
So, you know, a lot of times you have to be able to sit there and sit down and think and
take those plays and maybe use it as lead gen. Whatever your lead gen is, that's fine. But being
able to sit there and build that conviction for yourself so that you can kind of sit through those
times of difficulty.
I think you made a lot of really great points there.
I did see we got my friend, our friend, Roy, joining us up here, Mr. Crossroads.
He got in here for a good little bit of a Stock Talk Weekly rant.
So I don't know if you have any thoughts on anything that he was talking about there.
I know I saw I put your post around AEHR this morning, which is a name that was talked about a little bit ago on the spaces, not as much recently, but I'm curious to hear some more
thoughts around that one. And then obviously there's some earnings after the close today,
Applovin, et cetera. Excited to hear your thoughts, but I appreciate you joining us
on the show today, Roy. Yeah, thanks for having me. I appreciate it.
Yeah, like, well, just to go on what Stock Talk was saying, I, you know, I don't look as much at charts rather than individual companies.
But like him, you know, there's a lot of people that look at my portfolio and like, oh, man, you must be losing tons of money because Palantir is going down.
It's like, no, my cost basis is under 20. So I think I'll be okay there. Likewise with Robinhood, it's taking a big
haircut. And I think that's the important thing during times like this where the market's very
volatile and it's not been a pleasant ride really for a lot of the tech stocks that I've been in
since last September. But if we're long-term investors, I know not everybody here is, but
if you're a long-term investor, have that long-term mindset. Don't get so fixated on the short-term moves, whether it's to the upside or the downside.
Those long-term really don't matter that much.
You'll often see a move that's very strong to the upside, like what air test systems did today.
And I'll talk a little bit about that, too, in just a moment.
Fade a little bit, and those that just rip to the downside, likewise revert. It's more about the
long-term, but also don't be afraid. Like when you see screaming buys and opportunities and you're
in something that you have less of a conviction on, it's okay to not have diamond hands and be
like, you know what? I'm going to go after the easier play. Like case in point hymns, I know a
lot of people have banned that stock. I got out at 23.
Technically, I'd taken most of my gains up above 45.
But yeah, bottom line is I'm like, hey, maybe it's still good.
It's kind of cloudy.
But right now with a lot of the tech names, especially selling off over the long term,
I don't know what's going to happen in the short term.
But over the long term, the companies that I'm rotating to should outperform.
And so I'm glad to do that. But yeah, as far as AIR, it's really a confirmation of a thesis
that I've had since last summer, not myself alone, but there's a few of us AIRheads out there,
but ticker symbol is AAHR, in case you guys are wondering. But it's all related to what's
happening in the AI arms race. It's an automated testing equipment provider.
We saw a lot of indications, this earnings, again, of massive CapEx expend, the cost of
failure just being increasingly high.
And what's happening is a lot of people need to shift a little bit further upstream in
their testing processes for a couple of different reasons.
But they're not the only beneficiary.
You saw Teradyne two or three weeks ago
report a very strong earnings.
They're a bit further downstream
as far as testing equipment.
Air is on the package part burning
and then wait for burn in level,
but yeah, massive contract with the hyperscaler.
And it looks like that's just the beginning
of many things to come.
So in micro caps like that,
they are very volatile,
but when there's news,
when there's a catalyst boy,
it can absolutely erupt. And I think that we a longer uh ride up to go this year too so
i really hate to be that guy did i hear a landline there in the background
yeah yeah uh this i'm in the office right now so i've turned the ringer off now i apologize
i'm joking i'm joking
it's more that it was uh it was a landline than anything else it's not even just a landline that's
like a that's like a phone from like the 1990s or something yeah yeah it's a business phone so
you know we have landlines still here in addition to our cell phones so
uh stock talk can i ask you i haven't uh a is that one you revisited at all in the last little
bit no i mean i i owned it way back in the day for a nice trade but i haven't looked at it
at all since then not looked at it in like over a year so i couldn't give any updated thoughts
stock is up 220 percent over the last year there you go okay wow i haven't looked at it in a while
as well yeah it's it's been five years uh 1200 it's held up my portfolio quite nicely added to
it some this year too so but uh yeah i think the upside is there there's always risk with micro
caps and everything and it's now outside just because of its sheer strength.
Chris Wacker, In the rest of my portfolio not doing quite as strong but yeah my main portfolio is down only 5% this year, which I know is nothing compared to stock talk like you're killing it man but i'll take a negative 5% when my number one holding Robin Hood is down by half so.
half. So, but yeah, what's happening with Air mostly, like the CEO came out in the earnings
in January and he said, hey, what's happening in the space is going to benefit us. We talked
with a massive hyperscaler, which is one that was the same customer that kind of propelled them to
do an acquisition last year. And then they followed through on some orders. They had come and said,
hey, we're going to have some massive orders for you soon.
Now they can't actually announce the orders
until like today when they're fully confirmed.
But he's saying, well, this isn't guidance,
but we're looking at bookings this really through May
of going to 60 to 80 million, which sounds tiny.
But if you look at their revenue
and including what looks like it's going to be coming behind that, that's a pretty massive
ramp. So that's the reason why the stock flew is a lot of these companies that are in that market,
in that space, you've actually seen kind of the opposite of what's happened with a lot of the tech
and AI focused stocks, where they are actually getting multiple expansion rather than compression.
Because, I mean, this CapEx stuff, it's got to come from somewhere.
And so a lot of these guys really enable that.
There's some concerns with throughput on a lot of these, as well as the efficacy,
the cost of failure, like I said, as the parts continue to be more and more complex.
And if you are training an LLM
and all of a sudden your whole system goes down,
that's a big problem.
And NVIDIA, you know,
Jensen Wong has talked about this too in the past
with some of the components.
April and May last year,
he was complaining about some of the testing protocols
that some of these were going through.
So yeah, there's a big shift underway,
but lots of names to track out there,
lots of opportunities, but this is one. It's one that I've heard you talking about a little bit. It's obviously been doing super
well and it's one that we were talking about here in the past as well. So it's like, oh,
I know that name. I'm interested in it. I'd like to hear more of the thoughts on it. So I enjoy the thoughts there,
sir. Is there any other stocks that you own that are interested in that have had some big news
recently? Obviously, I'm looking through the page, some Palantir, some Robinhood. Nebius had a little
acquisition yesterday. I didn't really know much about the company that they acquired as well.
There's been a lot of stuff going on in the world. Alsor of course but i mean it's okay so it's a rough time i take you back to uh to
vegas or whatever it was when we were all just excited about it but yeah yeah like so i entered
bmr as a uh kind of a longer swing trade and a possibility of making a long-term position but
i put a two-year time horizon on it just because if we're going through a crypto winner, I'm like, hey, I want to be able to go through the other side of it as well.
I think as far as Ethereum adoption and everything that's attacked, there's been been a painful hold, but I continue to hold.
I think probably the big news this week, at least for me and my portfolio, although the stock didn't react to it, it's continued to be compressed, is Palantir just announcing that 10-year expansion of Skywise, which is a partnership with Airbus.
That was really like the first extremely successful widespread commercial contract that they had.
Of course, BP was one of those two.
Jamie Diamond's firm as well. But yeah, this is just confirmation.
And we continue to get that on Palantir that this is a company with an incredibly deep moat.
I've barely added any.
I had too many shares actually go away when I was running up high.
And so I want to re-add, but I'm being careful even here.
Now, if we fall close to 100 or even below, I'll start adding more meaningfully.
We could still fall further.
I know Burry thinks we're going to fall to like 50 or 60, which I mean, I don't want to know what's happening in the macro to cause that.
But I kind of hope that we see that because that would be a great opportunity to add.
But yeah, I'm treating Palantir that way.
Robinhood as well, I've not added to.
They, of course, had earnings.
Revenue missed on the top line.
And I think there's some concern.
I saw a lot of people pushing back on the predictions market stuff.
But ultimately, it's a generational, I think, company.
Excellent culture. So again, there I'm like, at what generational, I think, company, excellent culture.
So again, there I'm like, at what point do I go in deeper?
It is my number one holding.
And so I'm just kind of adding those targets right now.
Kind of the same thing with SoFi.
A lot of these stocks that were hyper growth, they've seen multiple compression recently.
But as a long-term investor, unless the thesis has changed like it did with PayPal, where it broke apart completely and I got out, sadly with the loss on that one, I'll just hold and look for opportunities to add.
And if we pump too much too fast, I might take just a little bit off the top.
It's always okay to take some gains.
Pain pal has been a difficult one.
Pain pal has for sure been a difficult one.
Yeah, it's been coming up on the spaces here a little bit as well
I don't know how cheap it is now
It is
Cheap can always get cheaper
And the hard thing is
When you have a firm that is literally guiding
For decline
And they're doing that for EPS
Despite if you look at their buyback yield,
it's insane. You would think that EPS would have a hard time being oppressed. So either,
and it could well be the most ridiculous sandbagging that they've ever done. And they've
had a tendency to do that anyway. Or it could be like, hey, we are beginning terminal decline.
And unless some of these projects that the former CEO now has spun up,
that if they leave those alone
and those actually execute like ads,
unless those actually pay off,
this could be a firm that just,
they can't go anywhere.
And honestly, like with Alice Chris,
there was a chance to pivot
from a value stock to a growth stock.
And maybe he's done enough
to get in that trajectory.
But the problem was they needed results quicker.
And there was some execution that stumbled.
There's a reason why he's out.
I mean, you look at the stock price.
But yeah, it's really strange to see a lot of people pile in now
and just say, hey, it's really cheap.
It was really cheap at $60, too.
Now it's cheaper.
And there is a point where it's just overdone.
It probably is overdone.
But I just think that there's a better opportunity with a lot of the other stocks that actually are growing, unlike PayPal, despite the buyback yield free cash flow.
They brought in a guy that's going to trim some headcount, which PayPal could certainly use, I feel, for those that are under the blade, so to speak,
but he's not a guy that's going to pivot them into the next stage of growth. This is just a value
company that may or may not be in terminal decline. So I just don't want to have any part of that.
PayPal has been a difficult one for sure. Sam, I don't know if that's one you have any thoughts on or any things here or any insights
or any of the ones that he was talking about.
Is AEHR one that you've looked into?
I was looking into air test systems.
I do agree with Roy on it, or Crossroads on that one.
I mean, it is obviously part of the semiconductor supply chain,
important part of it.
But also the theme that Stock Talk has said,
the U.S. on-shoring theme,
and I think that's going to continue to play precedence
in really what's actually working in this industry.
A couple of stocks that I added to the portfolio yesterday,
and I did, you know, like he says,
we all have finite capital, right?
And if I want to buy a new position, it would involve me selling another position because
I have no more cash left.
So if I'm going to do that, I really got to weigh it down by what's actually working
in the market and what's not, not just in terms of price, but in terms of themes, right?
So obviously right now it's semiconductors.
And as he was saying earlier, it's not all semiconductors.
It's mostly the ones that are part of the ramp up
in terms of building more supply and meeting demand,
but also the ones that are straining on basically the output
of a multi-trillion dollar TAM
that Jensen Wong said is coming for 2030.
And I think it's more than that too.
I think it's more on profitability, right?
And also expanding on growth, but not just any growth,
but growth that is going to expand in specific business segments
that do have to do with the theme.
So there's a lot of semiconductor companies
that have their hands in multiple themes around the entire sector, but some of them are going to be very meaningful, especially if it's a large part of the business and it's growing or accelerating at double digits.
So one of the companies I've been bulged for quite some time, you guys heard me on here and it was on Semiconductor and I entered that one around 46, 47. And continuing to hear
Stocktalk talk about a lot of his mythology, I look back and I'm just like, wow, that's like
totally fit in from a technical chart as well. Because I was actually looking at it today on
the stream, was that you really had just a lot of sideways action on the stock for quite some time.
And then it finally broke out. And now today,
it's way above moving averages. But the fundamentals that are tied with this, especially
the largest part of the business are actually accelerating. And it's coming from decelerating
growth, right? So last quarter, they're around, not the last quarter, the previous quarter before
that, they're around like minus 11% year-over-year growth. And they've already projected for 2027 to be 10% to 12% positive growth.
And last quarter was, the previous quarter in October was probably the bottom of that decelerating growth.
And since then, they've accelerated.
Not only that, but the largest businesses that they have in their company are accelerating even faster.
And what this company does is they're more involved in the power chips and the analog
segment for semiconductors, which is really important when you think about certain sectors
like AI data centers, the one that popular that a lot of people talk for example, energy
and solar, in addition to EV, automotive, right?
And these are pretty important because solar has essentially bottoms as far as
the entire industry goes probably late last year or middle of last year. And the reason why that's
important is because stocks don't usually bottom right when that report comes out and just shows
that they have bottomed. They usually bottom ahead of that because Washington usually sniffs this
stuff out. And what we're starting to see is really any company that's kind of involved
supply chain for silicon in the EV industry, obviously the AI data center industry and also
solar industry, are seeing a massive benefit from it. But also, companies that are part of the
supply chain from memory are benefiting as well. So there's a couple of other companies that I got
into yesterday, and I've had to sell iron. And I know a lot of people are giving me some heat for that one,
because I'm because you know, all you're selling iron, that means you're bearish. It's like,
not really, because I could be bullish to company, but I don't have, I don't even have leg in it.
But I also do own Nebius, which is a much larger position in iron, even after the pullback.
And I believe that that differs my business to me me and i've always said is a lot more bullish than than iron now iron will stand to benefit up
across the entire across the entire time acceleration toward multi-trillion dollars in 2030
the thing is is that the the line to go there is not going to be a straight line and if i think
about companies that are more bullish on the data center,
neoclouds and Bitcoin miners, it's the one that own the entire stack. Nebius might not own the entire stack for most of their data centers, but the ones that they're building in the future,
they do own the entire stack on, but also they have a cloud. So Iron also owns a full stack and
has a cloud, but they're not as diversified as Nebius. Nebius is much more diversified than Iron.
And both are probably
going to benefit. But I would say that if some of these pull back, which they can, right, Nebius can
report great earnings tomorrow, it could be down 20%. Like we've seen crazy things happen in the
market. They're not going to have the revenue that they've been anticipating the end of 2026
tomorrow. It's going to be the end of 2026. And even then it's an annualized run rate. So it's
the last month that they're reporting for their earnings times 12, right?
So that's going to take time to play out.
So the market can do whatever it does in the meantime, but it's not going to be a straight
line up.
And that doesn't change the fundamental thesis about it.
It's more that, look, it's just the market's not about it right now.
So, and the market's always right 100% of the time at any given moment.
And yeah, they could be, people say that the market is wrong for certain stocks,
but I think that the market is right today
and they could be right later on as well,
but you could be right in your thesis.
And it's that kind of conviction
that makes you hold out to wait for that to happen.
But also, Nebius, like I mentioned, is diversified.
They have Averide, they have Toloka,
which arguably those two
are probably multi-billion dollar businesses.
They have 28% stake in ClickHouse, which is around $4 to $5 billion now and probably higher
since the last time they had their valuation increased. And they also have triple 10, which
is more of an education segment, but they are expanding into Latin America on that one. But
it's probably not going to provide meaningful revenue to the top line to power its core business,
which is data center, right? And we're continuing to see that
anything that's kind of tied in with OpenAI is going to get hit, right? So thankfully,
IRN and Nebius were not anti-beneficiaries of that one. But moreover, Nebius is, they've been
doing this for like 20, 30 years, right? They were the previous Google of Russia.
Since then, they had to sell their assets
in order to be listed in the NASDAQ,
and which probably drew back on a lot of risk.
That was kind of the bear thesis for it.
Now, that being said,
none of these stocks are guaranteed to go up,
but if I were to hold one through the stomach of volatility,
it would probably nebbest in that case.
And I really do have enough exposure
that I don't need to tack on more
of having a secondary player on there.
I did start two positions yesterday,
SIMO or Silicon Motion,
which I did ask about StockDuck earlier,
and Acelis, ACLS.
And these are more focused in the memory industry, right?
So you already have SanDisk and you already have,
SanDisk is more focused on NAND technology,
NAND or NAND memory, which is more focused on NAND technology, NAND or NAND memory,
which is more focused on flash memory or storage.
And Micron is more focused on DRAM, right?
So that's more to do with the short-term memory
that all of these LLMs and all these AI servers
are storing the data in there.
And when you restart a computer, they wipe out.
I don't want to get too technical with that,
but obviously those two stocks are now performing.
And every single time those guys report earnings, their stock just gets cheaper than what it
was a month before.
So that was obviously a boat that I missed completely.
I mean, I was long micron calls, and I sold around $200.
I got in, it was like $120, and then sold way too early on those.
And they didn't expire until June.
So like, I'm definitely smacking myself in the head for that one, but it is what it is.
But I believe that this entire industry, not just semiconductors, but all across the supply
chain has a lot of runway to go.
And it'll be some time until that tops out.
Now, could it top on the next couple quarters?
I don't know.
But if I'm going to be investing in this sector, I want to look for those companies that are
involved in supply chain of the entire industry versus what everyone has already discovered
on Twitter.
Now, Silicon Motion likely was already discovered, has already been bid for quite some time,
looks a little bit extended, but still, I think there's a lot more upside there.
So we'll have to stomach a lot of volatility in that one.
But as Celis reports next quarter, and I do think that this one that is encroaching
on having the ion plants that they build for the DRAM side, I think there's a lot of upside
for this one.
And the valuation isn't too demanding, and their gross margins are around 45% to 50%,
and they're already profitable.
So right now, they trade around three times price to sales, which isn't too demanding.
If you look at these other companies that are in the memory sector, they trade pretty
richly in terms of price of sales, but they are growing pretty rapidly.
But specifically, a lot of names in the semiconductor industry, the ones that you don't see doing
well are trading very expensive with their pre-revenue.
Like if you look at Navitas, like Navitas is probably going to have a bright future.
They're partnered with NVIDIA.
They're also in the power chip segment.
But they trade very expensive for how much they are today.
So if you're owning something like Navitas, you're going to have to go through a lot of
volatility.
The thing was just like $16 just a few months ago.
But I think the ones that are being hit today in the semiconductor industry that aren't
going up with everything else are the ones that are not profitable and the ones that
are already expensive that has priced in their growth.
And one of those is Astera Labs. Estera Labs is down like 20% today.
And it was trading very rich coming into earnings with high expectations. And meanwhile,
those earnings were actually really good, but it had expectations already baked into the stock.
So the time to buy Estera Labs is when it was like 60 bucks last April when I was buying it and Shia was buying it too. And the time to sell it was probably in the $200 plus range when things were just getting
a little bit crazy.
And that was actually around before last October when things really changed in the market.
So I think that being said, I'm looking for companies that are still part of the themes
that look really good in the charts.
You know, obviously things that StockTalk talks about
a lot.
Those principles are really important in this market because not everything is going up.
And avoiding buying things that just have terrible charts that may look good fundamentally
on paper, but the entire sector is just down.
Like software, I haven't added to Rubrik in a while.
My cost basis in Rubrik is around $30, the very bottom of the stock after IPO. So I'm going to continue holding onto that one.
But other stocks that I just don't want to go red on that I've been holding for
quite some time that I do, I am bullish in the thesis, but it's just, I don't want,
I don't want to be a backholder. Right. And it's very difficult because I'm kind of battling with
myself so many times where it's like, there are stocks that would constitute me being a bag holder
because I'm about to go red on it. But some of them, it's like, look, I got to cut this thing
because I want to rotate in this other company that I'm much more bullish on, that have much
more conviction on, that are part of the themes that are likely going to do well in the near term
amid any volatility that we see in the market or actually outperform. So therefore, I'm going to
have to cut Lemonade. So Lemonade was already a two times, it could have been a three bagger if
I got out of the run 100 bucks. But I mean, this is not, Lemonade is not a company that is entirely
benefiting off the software decline of the market. Mind you, they are the insurance sector,
so they aren't totally software. But I mean, let's be completely honest, this is a software stock. They don't even have
offices. This is providing insurance for the younger generation, specifically in EVs as well,
by partnering with Tesla. They're not necessarily a profitable company, but they are growing pretty
dramatically and they're part of a secular trend. But the thing is, the market is just not bullish
to name it. At some point, I'm going to have to cut it if i want to roach in something that's uh that's less volatile something
that's not as expensive and something that is part of the ongoing theme so these are like kind of
some things that i'm back on myself but i do feel confident in the names that it did rotate into
and one day's performance is not going to speak volumes as opposed to multiple months or quarters or years.
I think that it'll take time for this one to play out.
But I mean, obviously, Silicon Ocean's up 7% today.
Asalus is up 3% today.
Iron is down a couple percentage points.
Lemonade is down like 3%.
Okay, that's great one day,
but it might not sustain itself.
So I just want to give a fair warning to people out there.
However, I'm confident in the holdings I have in my portfolio.
And there might be a couple of names I'm looking to cut.
And to be honest, finite capital, you can't be in everything.
And if I'm going to be in something, I want to size that thing up.
That was an awesome little run-through right there, Sam.
We have another conversation coming up here in a couple of minutes.
So I want to make sure we give the people a little bit more time here to speak.
You should make sure you are following the amazing speakers up here.
The conversation we have coming up is going to be really awesome.
Talking about some more of the sectors, the themes that have been working in this market,
the themes that you guys are all excited about.
But Roy, I did see you have your hand up there a little bit.
It was really awesome to have you on this Spaces. I hope we can get you on here more on these wednesdays i wonder what you wanted
to talk about there a little bit and then just in general um there's anything we didn't talk about
this one that you were like yeah that that that's exciting that's going on that was something i wish
we talked about i always appreciate you being here yeah i, I wanted to, Sam, you probably saw, but Nebius was my newest position.
I've traded the name before, but I ended up making a position on Friday.
So entering earnings into it, I followed the name for 9, 10, 11 months, however long.
But this is my first time holding it as a long-term investor.
So I'm kind of curious
what your expectations are. Like, is this a scenario where I expect given what we've seen
from the hyperscalers and given what we've seen from others that are in this space, they're going
to probably increase CapEx. Do you think that we're going to see a shareholder revolt like we
saw with some of the hyperscalers? Or do you think it's just understood by those that are holding the
name like, hey, CapEx is actually a reallyers? Or do you think it's just understood by those that are holding the name,
like, hey, CapEx is actually a really good thing for these guys.
It's just showing that there's durable demand.
And also, your thoughts on the acquisition.
I thought it was really cool.
I like that they're moving away from just –
they've never been pure bare metal, but increasingly so.
They're building a new product there.
So I hate to say to people, but there is nothing that they're going to say on their earnings call or shown earnings call that's going to definitively say where the price is going to go.
Right.
So I think it's really all dependent on the entire sector.
So, I'm bullish Nebius, right?
But you're not going to see those real numbers, those massive multi-billion dollar numbers
in terms of AAR until later this year.
Right now it's forecast.
You're probably going to see heightened revenue likely because they do have an actively running
cloud business and they do have their other businesses as well.
In terms of profitability from the entire business or the group,
not going to happen.
They're not close to profitability.
But if you're investing this, you got to wait for the long term. Now you have a long term time horizon.
So then that's good.
But this is not for the faint hearted.
And you probably already know that you buy here, the stock can go down like 20%
tomorrow or go up 20%, whatever it is. But the whole sector does not look like it's going to
have a five times the next couple of weeks. It doesn't. That's just the heart of it. I mean,
if Amazon is down after accelerating AWS, largest growing business, largest high scale in the entire world, by 24% from 21%,
from 19%, from 18% in the previous quarters, unless the market just completely turns around,
it's like, hey, guys, let's all get bullish AI data center growth. I don't know if it's going
to happen. People playing calls this, the premiums are extremely high. So it's going to be prone to
massive moves the next day, considering the IV crush it's going to be prone to massive moves the next day,
considering the IV crush that's going to be happening.
If it's anything, I would even say it's a vol selling event versus a vol buying event.
When it comes to, I forget the exact name of the business that they purchased,
Taleha or something, that's an AI agent business.
I looked a little bit into them.
They acquired them for more than $100 million,
which isn't really too much considering they're raising,
they're raising like billions of dollars of capital, like every quarter, whatever it is.
It's part of their, it's part of their cloud suite and their suite of cloud products,
like caters toward AI, right? So anything product wise agents is obviously the theme right now. So
they have to offer that. They've already partnered obviously the theme right now. So they have to
offer that. They've already partnered with them with many things. So buying them was not really
anything big of a hurdle. And that company actually has already partnered with NVIDIA
and a bunch of other companies as well. So it's not like it was anything out of the realm.
Would it be surprising if they do more acquisitions just to add more products to their
cloud? Because they are going for that full AI stack in terms of the cloud, right? So in order to get there, they would have
to do more acquisitions, but on top of that, raise capital. So I'm not going to be surprised if they
raise like a billion or two of capital tomorrow when we get the report. Obviously, the market
doesn't like it when they see that. We saw Iron do that last quarter and Iron had nothing but good
news to report last quarter, but the stock was down 24% after I was below 30.
Came back up.
Obviously sold it.
The price action is just terrible with a lot of these stocks right now.
So I think you just have to have a strong stomach.
But I mean, Adam Patti is here.
He knows the bill of materials.
He knows what's really important in this industry.
Obviously, Compute and Memory of the Bottleneck.
And kudos to Adam.
They have their AIS ticker, which has been doing phenomenal.
Majority of that is SK Hymix and Micron.
So those guys have been bullish, I think, for a long time.
Really, it's just a theme right now.
It's semiconductors, and it hasn't changed.
I would have thought that we would shift into software at some point, or at least by now.
We have not switched to that stage too.
And it's done the complete opposite.
Software has went down.
So picks and shovel, baby.
Picks and shovels.
I think Nebius is part of it.
And I think when all this compute turns into top line growth for a lot of these companies,
Nebius does offer that suite of cloud products that a lot of these companies, Nevis does offer
that suite of cloud products that
a lot of companies will actually need.
Still bullish, but we'll see.
Look at that. App loving completely reversed.
We're getting in the awesome
Adam Patti as well.
I do just want to say before I come to Adam
and just ask general thoughts there, and then we'll get
into the whole conversation.
One more time, follow the speakers up here.
They are all fantastic.
They will improve your experience on this app.
We really appreciate the really smart people.
They're really awesome people who come in on the shows and give some value.
But, Adam, I know you've been listening to the conversation a little bit.
We got Sam bringing you in, Ashley, there.
How are you doing, sir?
I wonder if there's any initial thoughts on what we've been talking about here so far uh well
thanks for having me as usual guys and um you know an insightful conversation and look from you know
you're right about a lot of a lot what you're talking about it is about the picks and shovels
right i mean you know you don't want to buy the hype you want to buy where the cash flows are going
and and that's what we focus on and that's what we have focused on, which is probably why the
performance of our thematic super cycle ETFs have been so strong. But, you know, it's hard. It's
hard to be a stock picker, right? I mean, you know, if you have the skills and the time and the
stomach to be a stock picker, then, you know, go for it for a piece of your portfolio.
But I'm not a stock picker, I'm more of a portfolio construction guy.
So what I try to do is with the team at VistaShares is to create the types of
portfolios that provide the exposure that investors are looking for
in the pockets of the market that we believe are the most attractive.
Without picking individual names, we're looking for where attractive without picking individual names.
We're looking for where the cash flow is flowing.
So in the AI space, you're looking in the AI data center space
and you're looking in the semiconductor space,
but that's all well and good,
but how do you break that down, right?
You need to break that down into the components
to see who the players are, who has the pipeline, whose pipelines
are growing, whose are shrinking, and whose technologies are being adopted most favorably
in the marketplace. And that's what we've tried to do with both AIS and the AI space
and POW in our power infrastructure space.
I want to double click into a couple of those ones, but I want to be able to
talk tickers and I want to read out a couple of disclosures, disclaimers before we can go into
that. But our goal here with everything is to create informed investors. Our goal is to create
as much of great content as possible, keep as much of that as free. And we're really lucky to be
working with some really reputable people like Adam Patti, like the VistaShares team who are putting together products.
And our goal is here is to just talk through them.
You guys can come in and ask questions if you have any questions that you guys want answered.
And, you know, if this is right for you, that's awesome.
We'd love for you guys this to be a place to start in your research.
But yeah, we just want to put interesting stuff onto your guys' radars.
Investors should carefully consider a fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus
and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the VistaShares ETFs, and that
is over on the VistaShares website, vistashares.com. If you look in that purple 40 in the bottom right
of your screen in the spaces chat, there is a link to the VistaShares website there. And I also pinned up in the nest above a tweet with a bunch of the tickers
that they have going through on that. But to obtain a fund's prospectus and key information,
you should visit their website. Fund's prospectus and key information documents should be read
carefully before investing. We're excited to be working with Adam Patti and the Vista Shares team.
AIS was prompted a little bit there.
And obviously the bill of materials,
we're talking about the team here,
Sunni Madra over at NVIDIA,
John McNeil, the former president over at Tesla,
a very strong team there and a couple others.
Vertiv, VRT, data center cooling in general.
Vertiv just had earnings the other day.
And I know the stock was, I think it was yesterday.
The stock was absolutely ripping.
And what I find really interesting in talking with you guys, and we've been lucky to have
these conversations, is the bill of materials and how when we go through here, we're actually
looking at what, when people invest in a data center, when people invest in AI and all that
stuff, where is the money actually going to?
And one of the things that has always stood out for me so much in the research that you
guys have been putting out, and obviously the construction here as well is around
cooling and how it is around 30% of the cost when people go in and spend money on data centers.
Cooling was a bigger component than the chips and the NVIDIA segment of it, which I thought was very
interesting in the cost. So Vertiv is obviously a stock playing in that theme. Stock
is up 25% today. It's one of the larger holdings in here. I wonder if you have any thoughts
on that name specifically, but data center cooling, it is quite the theme right now.
Yeah. I mean, it's funny. I've been using Vertiv as the example of just an important
piece of the supply chain that most investors don't really know about. But it sounds like many investors have figured this one out.
So you nailed it.
I mean, you know, when you when you lay out what goes into building an AI data center and you lay it all out, all the different components, then you overlay the bill of materials.
Like you said, you know, most investors haven't known that, you know, power and cooling or cooling systems is
around 30%, as you mentioned. Invertive is the winner there. I mean, they are the dominant player.
They have the best technology and their pipeline is expanding. So, you know, it's been a top 10
holding for us since inception of the fund. And, you know, certainly it's certainly helped the
portfolio without a doubt over time. So, but look, we're always on the lookout for other players in that space, too, because it is so important.
So, you know, we have various players on our watch list where we want to make sure that Vertiv continues their dominance in the space.
And, you know, perhaps they lose some, you know, some of their pipeline in the future from for a new player that has a better technology.
But we haven't seen that yet. But, you know you know that's something we're constantly on the lookout i believe ge vernova
would be another one that i'm looking just through some of the largest holdings that would fit here
this simo stock is one that i've never really seen before silicon motion was this yeah silicon
motion is not a name that i've seen before in this top 10. Yeah, well, it's done very well.
So, you know, the price has floated up into our top 10.
It's been doing well.
But GE Vernova, so if you look at our AIS ETF, which is, of course, the kind of the brains, right?
It's the data centers and the semiconductors.
So that's where the brains of AI is built.
And then if you look at POW, P-O-W, which is our power infrastructure where the physical infrastructure for AI is built. And then if you look at POW, P-O-W, which is our power infrastructure, where the physical infrastructure for AI is built, the only overlapping holding between the two is GE
Vernova. And we added that around, I would say, nine months ago to the portfolio. So that has
been exceptionally well, has done exceptionally well for the portfolio. And look, what's
interesting is that the government recently
came out and, you know, we all know that electricity is the gating issue for AI to actually succeed.
So, you know, we don't have an energy issue in the United States. We have plenty of energy,
you know, natural gas is, you know, we have plenty of that. What we don't have is turbines
for to power, you know, for the on the on the campuses or in the electric um in the utilities
and what the government has come out with recently is that they did because there's been such a
consumer backlash on energy prices that are being driven up in in parts of the country by the usage
of the ai data centers the government has come has come out with kind of a mandate says,
look, you're building a data center,
you need to put your energy facilities on your campus
to power your own data center,
kind of what they call behind the meter.
And so that is creating even more demand
for all the components that go into building
these electric generation facilities.
And again, turbines is a massive part of that.
And who is the dominant player in that?
It's GE Vernova.
And I think they have a two-year backlog for their finished goods.
So, you know, they can't get ahead of demand right now, which is incredible. So,
you know, those are the kind of companies you want to, you want to get into, you want to understand
where the pain points are in the supply chain and, you know, try to get ahead of that by finding the
companies that are the dominant players in those pain points. I just saw Roy Crossroads, who's up
here. He just put a kind of a technical question down below. And if I ask it, I will get messed up. Adam, this guy's awesome. I'm a big fan of Roy. But if you could ask that question for me, Roy, and say, you know, big words.
But now I'm scared. For this, like it's above my brain space, but I understand like Jensen Wong, NVIDIA, and many others have been talking about a shift in the way that they basically handle power distribution at data centers.
And so there's been a shift that's coming. It's going to take a while before we see it even as common, but to 800 volts of the HVDC.
I'm trying to remember what that stands for right now, but in essence, what happens is there's a lot less thermal loss.
And so in that scenario, there's less of a need for products like Vertiv for cooling.
There still is some, but I'm just kind of curious.
Is like that so far out with something like Vertiv that it's just not even worth worrying about?
worrying about? Do they have some sort of pivot or how do you see that impacting this space?
Do they have some sort of pivot or how do you see that impacting this space?
Yeah, I mean, that's an emerging technology that is being tested. It has not been rolled out,
of course, particularly not broadly. So there's a variety of those types of technologies. And
that's why I kind of opened up saying, look, Vertiv is the dominant player, but you have to
keep that segment on the watch list, given how important it is to the overall supply chain.
So there will be different technologies that come up, and you need to get ahead of that as an
investor. Firstly, making sure that it's a viable technology, and of course, that it's actually
being adopted broadly before you invest. But that particular one, I couldn't speak on that
particular technology, for sure. What I can say is that if you look at't speak on that particular technology um for sure what i can say
is that you know if you look at the capex that's being spent right now setting aside the specific
use of that as a cooling technology it's really about the distribution um and transmission of
energy so if you look at the capex spend on the electric side of the equation, over 55% or so is just
in transmission and distribution. And then you got about 10 or 12% in the kind of power
solutions and components related to that. Those are companies like Hubble and Quanta
Services and Prismian and Powell and companies like those. And that's where the money's flowing
into that segment, into the electric grid,
which is mandatory.
We have to upgrade the grid.
It's 30, 40 years old right now
in most places around the country.
And it's a national security risk
that we have such an ancient grid.
And it can't even satiate the consumer demand,
let alone the AI data center demand.
So again, I'm not answering your question demand. So, you know, again,
that, you know, I'm not answering your question directly because I don't know that technology myself. Justin Lopas, who is the COO of Base Power and, you know, one of the leading experts
in energy technology, he's on our investment committee and I will ask him that. I will ask
him that question. So maybe next time I'll be more prepared to answer that.
Yeah, thanks. No, it's one that I genuinely, I've seen a few people bring up and I'm like,
I don't know enough about the space, but my guess is that shift is going to take a long time. So they're probably fine. I just, I don't know. So thank you so much for your thoughts.
Thanks, Roy. Fantastic question. And give us a good talking point for when we uh when we get to do
this one again uh can we also you you kind of touched on it a little bit there but i always
like to kind of bring this one up on these because i think one of the things that you guys are
bringing to the table here listen there are there are different etfs in different areas but one of
the things that you guys are bringing is also that management team behind it the investment committee
uh is the correct term terminology in there but this
industry is shifting so quickly we saw how much money is being pumped into this area in capex
when there is that much opportunity innovation is going to happen people it's going to move quickly
it's going to move aggressively and and you have to stay on top of this so um can you tell me a
little bit more about that team we've kind of danced around a couple of names uh a little bit behind it um and then honestly also like i'd be curious of this is
obviously an entity that changes over time you could remind me on the the amount or the
times the rebalances quarterly monthly that's the england annually whatever it is um and then
maybe one of like the how how the ETF has maybe shifted
in some of the most recent ones.
So a couple of questions loaded in there,
but tell me more about the investment community,
the people that you guys are going to,
to kind of build, get billed out this,
build the materials,
and then maybe how the ETF has changed semi-recently.
Sure.
So, excuse me.
So, you know, to your point,
you know, the way we construct this portfolio is we use this bill of materials methodology that we file the patent on.
And but in fact, it's right on our website. We posted it right on our website, the entire methodology.
So you could see how we form the core of the portfolio.
So we use this supply chain analysis, overlaying the bill of materials, researching the companies and mapping them to the appropriate segments of the supply chain to create the core portfolio.
And that rebalances twice a year in June and December.
But to your point, you know, this is an active ETF.
And the reason why we constructed it like this is that we thought it was important to have transparency into how we create the core portfolio.
thought it was important to have, you know, transparency into how we create the core portfolio.
But the secret sauce is really at the investment committee level, because, you know, in an industry
that's moving so quickly, where technologies are constantly, you know, you know, becoming important
and falling off the table, you know, where there's a lot of activity globally, you need people who
are really in the trenches to understand the industry. You
can't rely on Wall Street analysts. No offense to Wall Street analysts, but they're analyzing
numbers after the fact. So the way we went in creating an investment committee is to really
break it into two components. One is the subject matter experts and then the portfolio construction
people. So in terms of the subject matter experts, you mentioned Sonny Madra, who is the president
of Grok.
Grok was just acquired by Nvidia.
So Sonny is now running hardware over Nvidia.
He is a global luminary in AI.
He was at the White House during that big meeting with Trump a couple of months ago.
He's brilliant.
Of course, John McNeil, who is the co-founder of VistaShares,
who was the president of Tesla.
He's on the board of General Motors.
He's vice chairman of General Motors,
autonomous vehicle subsidiary.
He's another global luminary in AI and electrification
and autonomous vehicles.
Excuse me.
So, and then Justin Lopez.
Justin Lopez is on our investment committee as
well. He was a lead engineer at SpaceX. He was the head of manufacturing at Anduril. And now
he's the co-founder with Michael Del's son over at Base Power. So he's a global expert in energy
technology. So, you know, those guys are doing this every day. They're building data centers. They're assessing vendor relationships.
They're assessing technologies. They're, you know,
they're thinking about the future and how the entire industry plays out over
time. So their insights are, you know, they're, you know,
incredibly timely and invaluable. So,
you know, once they see something in the market, whether it's
XYZ company is gaining market share because of their technology, or this company is losing market share because of their technology or their operational prowess is not as good as it should be,
we're looking at those companies. and the people that are looking at them
is myself, Professor Robert Whitelaw,
who is the chairman of the finance department
at NYU Stern School of Business.
He was also the dean at the NYU Stern School of Business.
And then David Featherstone Ha,
who is our EVP investment strategist as well.
And, you know, our job is then to express their views
into the portfolio, you know, and job is then to express their views into the portfolio,
you know, and make sure that the portfolio is constructed properly while taking into account
their insights. So our job is not to wake up in the morning and trade. So, you know, when a stock
goes up or down, we're not waking up in the morning to go buy more or sell it. You know,
we're looking at structural shifts. We're looking for, you know, major risks
and opportunities in the industry that may impact the composition of our portfolio. And then we're
acting on that. So, you know, we've only made, you know, half a dozen trades in AIS over the past
year. We have done some slight tweaks in the weights of some securities. But, you know, we don't make a lot of changes.
The only time we're going to make a change is when it needs to be made.
You know, when there's something different happening in the industry that requires a change in the portfolio.
How often do those changes come in and happen?
I know you've talked about the investment committee meeting being weekly.
How often do the changes come in and happen?
You know what?
We made a couple last year.
We made just a couple, most recently, a couple weeks ago, into some kind of testing equipment that's AI-driven.
It's been increasingly important in the AI space for chips.
important in the in the AI space for for chips. And, you know, so we can go months without a change or, you know, we can make a change every week if we need to. It really depends on when those risks and opportunities arise. And, you know, in times of flux, you know, you'll see us trade more. But, you know, you know, you're not going to see a lot of turnover in the portfolio, which is important for investors too, because you don't want those tax ramifications.
I do want to put another question in with the team
and get some thoughts back on it.
We were talking about this stock on this basis,
actually, and Roy, who, again, awesome guy,
he is a fan of AEHR.
And I wasn't going to ask about it,
but you were kind of talking
about the general sector, like the burn
in, the testing sector of it
in this area, which transparently
again, I don't know that much about, but
I'd be curious
if the team has
any thoughts on that one at all.
But yeah, AEHR.
I don't, but
I can certainly get back to you on that one.
So one thing.
Yeah, I'm excited to hear the thoughts on that one.
But another big thing that happened today.
And again, Tweet pinned up on the Nest above.
Has a bunch of the products we're talking about.
The ETFs we're talking about.
Our goal is just put interesting stuff on your radar.
Hear the reason.
Hear the thoughts behind them.
Allow you guys to go in and become educated investors
to make these really your own. And again, I'm going to put this in the nest above,
but it is pinned down below the website. Great place to go in and start. Has a prospectus,
has a bunch of other stuff there. One of the other ETFs that you have, a little bit of a
different suite here, the Target 15 ones. We uh a bill ackman little portfolio change them
adding meta today it was a little bit of bill ackman and obviously you guys have aki and a
couple of other ones oma h the uh the buffett one but uh aki a c k y i'm tracking uh bill ackman and
it's uh persian square's portfolio but today was a big day over there we don't hear
too many updates we're also pretty close to 13f season if not this week next week uh so it's an
interesting time it's saturday 13fs are coming out right or at the end of the week but um yeah i mean
that was some really interesting news so and this just underscores again why it's important to have
the active overlay over you know these types of products or if you want to stay on top of the
market so you know actually so meta will be in the acky portfolio as of tomorrow so we made that
that change after the close today so that's in between rebalance dates but you know that was an
important change so we made that and we have that ability to do that when we have verified information on any of our portfolios. So yeah, that was an interesting move.
I mean, Meta is extremely well positioned. It's certainly had a run, but it's come back a little.
And who's to argue with Bill Ackman? He's a legend.
Yeah, adding some Meta. I believe there was a Chipotle and Nike. I don't know if it was a full exit or if that was stories that came out before.
Yep, full exit on Chipotle.
Hilton and Chipotle.
So, yeah, all those changes have been made in the portfolio, which is nice.
Because one of the knocks against products that use 13Fs is like, well, you know, you're delayed.
against um you know products that use 13f's he's like well you know you're delayed and now look at
the end of the day whether you're delayed or not i don't think it changes the dynamics of the
portfolio because you know these are long-term holds so whether you're getting it more expensive
or cheaper who knows depending on how the market gyrates you know between the time they make the
trade and you make the trade but it's it's important to have that flexibility to make changes when you
have that information. So yeah, I'm thrilled that we were able to capture that and get that done
during the afternoon. So I'm looking into it. A little interesting here. I think the deadline
might be Tuesday, actually. It would be the 14th, but since that's this Saturday, and then the market is closed on Monday, the 16th.
Oh, that's right.
For Washington's birthday is what New York Stock Exchange calendar says.
I believe that puts this coming out as the 16th being the deadline for 13Fs next Tuesday.
So we're getting a little bit of a jump on it.
Yeah, which is nice.
And then we do a full rebalance on the on the 23rd.
So we basically get the 13 Fs in for Druckenmiller, for a Druckenmiller product, for all of our
target 15s rebalance.
But so we'll get the information, we'll sort through it, we'll rerun the portfolios and
execute the trades as necessary.
Why do you think the Bill Ackman portfolio has had a little bit more pickup
than the Stanley Druckenmiller portfolio? I think if you ask Stock Talk up here, and maybe I'll come
to Stock Talk after this one, I think he'd be firmly in the Stanley Druckenmiller camp,
is where he would be. Yeah, I think part of it is just when we launched it, to be honest with you, we launched Ackman first. We launched into a positive market with not a lot of news going on.
So, you know, if you look back at our launch dates for ACKY, we were, you know, it's 200, 250,000 shares a day for the first few days.
Really, really strong launch.
And then when we launched DRKY about a month later, the day we launched is when the administration kind of had another trade war start with China.
And all the news was about China and, you know, he got nothing.
You know, there was no buzz around the product being launched and nobody cared about trading.
Everyone was scared about a renewed trade war with China.
So the markets were very rocky and volatile.
So I think it was just trajectory.
You know, I think over time, you know, give it a year, we'll see where they are.
But, you know, they're very different portfolios.
And, you know, you pick your favorite and go with that one.
Yeah, very different portfolios, very different build out than a lot of the other ETFs as well.
But stock talk.
We've had a big pickup in Drucky recently.
Drucky had a big pickup in assets.
You know, it was kind of circling around, you know, the 10, 11 million range.
And now it's above 20.
That'll be at 30 or 40 in the next couple of weeks based on, you know, some pipeline on advisors that we know we're allocating.
Tickered there is DRKY.
And this is a little bit of a different construction than some of the ETF,
other ETFs.
This one is a target 15 ETF,
which means they're giving you out,
trying to give you 15% dividend per year that is paid out monthly.
1.25% is the target doing a covered call strategy over the holdings.
And maybe you can talk,
I don't want to keep going
in through it, but why don't you tell me a little bit more about the general construction of these
ones? I know OMH has a small caveat in there because it's actually also holding Berkshire
Hathaway, but what's happening here? Yeah. So with ACKY and DRKY, what we're doing is we're
looking into the portfolios of Bill Ackman and Stanley
Druckenmiller, and we're identifying their top holdings, their top publicly listed equity
holdings.
And then we're putting those into a portfolio and we're putting them in the, you know,
approximately the correct weights as how they hold it in their portfolio.
And then we rebalance that every quarter once the new 13Fs come out.
And the
reason why we chose those two, and to your point, OMAH is the same. We're looking at the Berkshire
Hathaway portfolio. The difference there is we do hold Berkshire B as our top holding, and then we
hold the top 20 holdings of Berkshire Hathaway underneath Berk B. And, you know, we like these managers because, you know, what makes them similar is
that they typically have long holding periods and they make large high conviction bets. So they're
not in a, you know, hundreds of securities. They don't have a ton of trades where, you know, they,
it looks like they have a big holding in something, but then if you go down their portfolio,
they have a big short position on something else.
So that's not there. They're more about finding the right securities, you know, and having conviction and then holding them for the long term. So that really suited the needs of an ETF and really gives investors a great way to get exposed to some of the best stock pickers in the world in the history of the world.
world and the history of the world. And then on top of that, we overlay our target 15 strategy
And then on top of that, we overlay our target 15 strategy there.
there. So we use an option strategy, primarily call spreads, which is unique in the ETF industry.
So we're not just doing covered calls, we're doing call spreads to try to retain that upside
potential. And the goal there is 15% annually, as you mentioned, 1.25% per month. We're not
looking to blow the doors off on the income.
We are, you know, we want to hit 125, not 126, not 124.
So we want to give investors, you know, stability.
So they'll know what they're getting every month.
Now, of course, look, there's no guarantees.
You know, we've never missed a 125 for any of our products,
but of course, you know, it could happen.
Then hopefully we make it up the next month. But the important thing is that we're not trying to blow the doors off.
We don't want to give you 25% a year or 50%.
We don't want to see that nav decay.
We, you know, the 15% is a, we believe, a perfect number where we can give you a very
fat yield, but not experience nav decay.
Keep that capital appreciation, you know, in hand so, you know, we in hand so we can build our portfolios
over time.
You know, as I'm thinking about it, I think one of the general kind of underlying themes
that I'm thinking about all of these different ETFs and products that you guys have. Because there are a couple different groups, baskets, AIS, PAU,
and then in the kind of super cycle ones,
then we have the Target 15s, and we even have the BitBonds,
which we haven't talked about here,
but I'm sure we'll talk about again next week.
And even S100 a little bit here.
It's just kind of the theme of experts
and that kind of just edge there that they have of being on the ground,
being able to kind of get that extra value edge. And I think in AIS and POW, you kind of are playing
that theme through the investment committee. In the Target 15 ones, we're playing that theme
through either these great investors or just great founders with kind of going into the largest stocks there.
So yeah, I'm kind of sitting here and thinking that is the general kind of
connecting bind here. Just in general, I don't know if you have any thoughts on that. Also,
we're here at 5.30 PM Eastern. I know that's all the time that we have allotted here. I do
love these conversations. I would love to know if you have all the time that we have a lot of here. I do love these conversations.
I would love to know if you have any other thoughts that you'd love to leave the people
with as well. But yeah, the last one I'll just say is I agree with you. And the reason why we
chose to build these types of products is because you look over the last few years, you know, if
you invested in the SPY or, or the QQQ, you were a genius, right? You're everything went up, right?
It was all driven by a handful of mega cap tech stocks
and everything went up, you were a genius.
The problem is that that market is not a typical market.
That's an aberration.
So what we believed and what we see happening
is that we're going into a, first of all,
a more value-oriented market
instead of a momentum-driven market, but also a market that will be driven by stock pickers versus kind of just plain
index exposure. So, you know, that's where we believe these products play. They're diversifiers
and they're giving you that stock picking knowledge of some of the top pick legends in the marketplace.
But, you know, also, you you know more of a value tilt because
all of these investors have more of a value tilt as well in the way that they choose their security
so you know we we think we're well positioned and you know hopefully we'll just continue to
bring out you know innovative products that you know you know people find value with
i appreciate you for joining in with us, Adam.
There are two tweets pinned up in the nest above.
You should go and check them out.
One of them, the last one, is the website.
Like we said at the start of this, that's a great place to go in,
do your research, look at the prospectus, look at the fact sheets,
kind of find that build of materials.
It's in the white paper as well.
So go in, check that out, dig across the website.
AIS was the one that we focused in a lot on this one,
but there are two tweets pinned up in the next above.
The one next to that can kind of also show you some of the tickers.
Just in general, make sure you are following all the speakers.
As I always do like to say, this was a great conversation.
I appreciate everyone for joining in.
There's a lot of value, smart people,
and a lot of really great smart people, and a lot of
really great posts from those people get posted to the timeline. And this is a really great way
to find those new people and add to your timeline and improve it. So check them out. I appreciate
Stock Talk as always, that VistaShares account that is up here as a co-host. If any of this was
interesting for you, you can also find the website, anything through there. Go follow that VistaShares account.
Adam Paddy, also, as you can hear, an expert, also a very connected man.
Adam Paddy knows the right people to build this stuff. So I'm sure there are some very interesting and awesome insights there.
And then, of course, that Wolf Financial account that is up here.
If you enjoy live, free content, talking about the stock market, that is an account that you must be following. But Adam, I lied before you got any final, final words here. I appreciate
you. Thank you very much. I appreciate your time and the time of your listeners. Look forward to
next time. Looking forward to it. And we got some questions maybe coming back to us that we can
talk about next week as well. So I'm excited. Have a great one, everyone.
Check this tweet pinned up on the list above.
Follow the speakers.
We will be back.
Same time, same place.
3 p.m. Eastern.
Stocks on Spaces.
