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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: May 29, 2025 Duration: 2:02:03Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, participants explored the latest partnerships and fundraising efforts in the crypto and tech sectors, highlighting Warby Parker's collaboration with Google and Starfighters' innovative approach to satellite launches, signaling growth and emerging trends in the market.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone.
Welcome in to Stocks on Spaces, stock market talk, where we're going to talk about everything.
We'll see what's on everyone's mind.
Interesting market after yesterday, NVIDIA earnings some news overnight.
U.S. court basically saying that the tariffs are unlawful.
I'm not going to go into all the details.
I'll let other people that maybe have dove into that and give their thoughts on that piece of things.
But we had that news come out last night. We've given all of it right back up.
And we are basically a break even, I guess, if you want to call it that.
If you look at QQQ, we are basically where we closed yesterday afternoon before all of that happened.
that happened. Honestly, if you've been away for the last 24 hours, it looks like nothing happened,
which a lot of took a long route to go nowhere, basically to get right back to where we were.
S&P doing a little bit better today, up a quarter of a percent, as well as IWM.
NVIDIA, who did report yesterday, been a slow kind of fade today, but still up 3% from yesterday's close.
Pretty much everything else is mostly breakeven.
I don't see a whole lot of things standing out to me.
We're slightly green across some things.
Netflix stuck out to me a little bit today, underperforming the market down about 2.3%.
Everything else is within up or down a percent as far as the big tech names go.
I do have some earnings I know that we're looking forward to this afternoon.
Costco, Dell reporting.
I'll save that for a little bit later.
We'll see who wants to mention anything on those names.
But Marvell, also Ulta reporting this afternoon.
So a few things going on and excited to kind of see what everyone's thinking as we come in to this Thursday afternoon.
Evan, saw you join us up here. Any opening thoughts from you?
I'm excited for these earnings after the close today.
They should be slightly interesting, so that should be a good time.
We have PCE coming up tomorrow morning, so it's another thing to watch out for.
We obviously got those headlines yesterday.
The market did not perform as some people might thought it might have in that scenario but um
but yeah i don't know my my portfolio is down about 0.2 apple's obviously not doing great off
of this i think we have no idea where we're at right now and we'll see. I don't know. Yeah, that's kind of the analysis.
Yeah, honestly, that actually might be a good take.
It's kind of like, I don't know what's next,
because you've got the Trump administration,
obviously challenging that court's ruling yesterday.
That was kind of the big catalyst basically saying,
OK, well, tariffs are gone.
So we rip up overnight.
And then obviously some challenges coming back out to that.
So more uncertainty, I think, is kind of my takeaway.
So we'll see what happens.
Options, Mike, what's on your mind?
What are you taking away from all this?
What all hit your radar and what are kind of your reactions to what's happened in the last 24 hours?
Let's talk last night.
That news came out,
and I immediately said to all my members, this is nothing. And then Goldman came out today,
Goldman Sachs, and said this is a nothing burger because, one, you know they're going to appeal it,
and they already appealed it to multiple levels. They already had it stayed at the appeal level,
and they're appealing it now to the Supreme Court. Secondly, more importantly, they have two other
ways to implement these tariffs that are
not covered under these judges' rulings. One is he can right now put up to 15% tariff on any
country he wants for all of them for 150 days before Congress then has to come in and vote to
maintain it. Secondly, he can go out and the administration would have a lot of work to do,
but country by country can show how they're treating us badly and then apply tariffs that way.
But he has to prove it.
So bottom line, this was a nothing burger.
This gap up today, I talked to my members.
I even put a video out there for free today and talked to everybody about this.
I thought we're going to give this back because this was just a stupid reaction to the trade judges.
There were three of them who made a good good decision and it is what it is.
Nothing changes in my opinion.
This does not change.
I mean there's a lot of legal challenges to everything he does and that's probably becoming
more of a problem than most people realize but that's beside the point.
So no surprise we faded today.
Hold on, hold on. But that's beside the point. So no surprise we faded today.
We're still stuck. U.S. appeals court reinstates Trump tariffs during appeal.
Just hit the wire. Wow. OK.
Again, this is going to end up the Supreme Court because they already went there.
The Supreme Court will take this or they'll kick it back and say no.
But thank you. We're stuck in this range.
The market is sideways.
We're going to next week.
First of all, we have PCE tomorrow, which is a big one.
Next week is historically one of the worst weeks in the stock market,
just over historical.
It's jobs week.
We don't have a lot of names for earnings.
We talked about NVIDIA to death in the previous meeting, but it was a great it was a good report
It wasn't a blowout report. It was a very good report in my opinion
So what have I been doing today and what have I been watching? So I was watching for this fade today and we're getting it
I did trade today. I traded around some things I had there.
I caught Boeing on that news.
They were talking at a conference,
and I caught a couple of quick trades on that one for some nice moves.
I traded NVIDIA today, the 145 calls for June.
I've jumped in them.
I've been holding a couple.
I'm still in a couple.
I've been in and out of it making money,
but I'm down on the current calls I have.
I traded AI, God help me. I made some money on that.
But overall, I've been pretty quiet here. I just think today is one of those we don't know.
Goldman Sachs came out with a note and said there's $89 billion that needs to be sold between now and tomorrow that is currently set up.
And it ranks, was it $89 billion? It was more. Now I have to go look. I have to get my numbers right.
I don't want to give you guys bad information here.
But bottom line is there's a lot of money that is scheduled to be sold between now and tomorrow night in the markets.
And, you know, that, here it is.
19, sorry, 19 billion, which ranks 85th percentile going back to 2000, the amount of sales into the end of the quarter.
So there's a lot of money that might be going out today ahead of this, right?
So we're seeing that.
You watch your big names like Microsoft and Amazon and Tesla and Meta,
you know, Netflix getting killed today, you know, Apple getting destroyed.
And this is not unusual here.
They're probably selling some of these names only to buy it back at the end of the quarter.
Remember, they have to refresh everything, resize everything.
And I'm not reading much in today's action other than this market is stuck and and we cannot break
and hold above that 594.85 level which i've been talking about with you guys now for about two and
a half weeks that is where we three percent pull back from the all-time highs and it was resistance
it was support on the way down and has now been a big resistance on the way back up and yeah that's kind of where i'm at i'm just kind of chill i'm holding my long-term
positions i told you i dumped nvidia yesterday i did not add it back today i'm only two dollars
above where i sold it at so maybe i get it back cheaper.
Appreciate you kicking us off options, Mike.
Stock talk.
Did we get you up here?
Yes, sir.
What's going on?
Well, I, uh, a lot is going on a lot of, well, a lot and nothing.
I mean, it depends on your take.
Yeah. I have a lot of commentary for today.
So why don't we just go to the panel first?
Okay.
Circle back to me at the end because I want to give everyone a chance to talk.
I don't want to.
You guys know me.
You know, when I start talking, it's a train.
You know, you can't stop the train.
I thought you were going to have to get rid of your tariff talk name,
but I think you just got reinstated in the last few moments.
So, all right, we'll continue on the panel.
We'll get to stock talk here in a little bit.
Wolfie, I think you were one of the next ones up here.
What's your take on everything going on?
Just FYI, while we're running through the panel,
I'm just going to go take Leo out to pee now.
So just putting that clarification out there
in case anyone calls on me, I may not.
I'll make sure to call on you in 90 seconds.
Okay, okay, okay.
Hi. So, you in 90 seconds. Okay. Okay. Okay. Hi.
So I,
you know,
top five tacos.
Top five.
You know,
I actually do have that list.
I'll get it to you at the end of the segment.
I actually put one together last night just cause I knew you were going to come with it.
a spoiler alert,
alert taco ball is on the list.
I'm not saying most has great great tacos but mo's is definitely
underrated you can continue are you are you a quiz nose guy too evan i've never actually had
quiz nose so i can't give you a fair take on that okay um all right so you know i i
kind of feel like that if you didn't use the gap up today as an opportunity to like reduce risk or sell stuff or kind of flatten out, hedge, buy vol, buy, you know, protection, do whatever you want to do to, you know, protect yourself, you're kind of gambling at this point. So, you know, when I give opinions or I talk about things on here, I try to find setups, predominantly short-term stuff.
There's a lot of long-term stuff. If things get distressed or depressed long enough,
if there's things that are like, you know, set up against strong backdrop or economic backdrop,
it's a little bit more long-term. But for the most part, for me, what I try to do is I try to find
imbalances in positioning, sentiment, et cetera, and try to take advantage of that on a short-term basis or a mid-term basis.
That's predominantly what I do.
So for the most part, for me as a trader, things that have run up aggressively that I've had that aren't long-term positions, I'm flattening out for the most part.
So again, I've been for the last several weeks saying that I look for these idiosyncratic plays, these mid-cap type names, not really trying to trade these mega caps.
I thought yesterday's NVIDIA quarter was, you know, better than feared, but not as great as, you know, historically the precedent that they've set.
Right. And so I think that's kind of what we're seeing in terms of price action. I mentioned before the Nvidia earnings and in the back of the
Nvidia print that I'm looking for some of these really aggressive, you know, ancillary
plays that have moved up aggressively. And I'm looking to potentially like fade them.
The name I gave was CoreWeave. CoreWeavey take a look at it today opened pretty high made a new high and now it's been you know straight
line since if there's any follow-through from here on core weave it doesn't really have any
support till it gets like 100 bucks and then outside of that pick your moving average pick
as far as it can go etc etc so i for like based off of that um i think, you know, for the most part, what option Mike said is like, we're kind of like in a range.
It's accurate. I think that, you know, I tongue in cheek tweeted top five worst day for Trump as president yesterday.
I got, you know, got made fun of and called taco to his face by a reporter.
called taco to his face by a reporter. And then, you know, shortly thereafter, there was a headline,
though it's a nothing burger, it's still a headline about how, you know, the tariffs got
rolled back. But I think what my fear is on the back of that is that he might have some more,
you know, more bite to kind of like, prove it type thing. So for me, when I see gap ups,
the way that we saw flattened out, had some nice movers, whether it be earnings or whether it be
just things that have run up. For example, I've talked on this space before a couple weeks ago,
you know, KSS, distressed retail, was a fan of it going into earnings, gapped up aggressively,
pushed up to about 10 bucks i flattened out uh
from the calls and basically kind of gives me a now 35 stop on equity because of you know how much
the calls have expanded so that's kind of the generalized thought um on on my end and then i if
you just take a look at just some just some basic generalized uh themes right so um you know take a look at just some basic generalized themes, right?
So, you know, take a look at the Sox.
Strong NVIDIA ER, right?
Couldn't really push it out of a downtrend.
You can pull up a Sox chart, take a look at the weekly,
in a downtrend, couldn't push up out of it.
Bitcoin made an all-time high this week into the conference.
Right now, we're basically pressed up against prior all-time high range
uh any fall through the downside that's that's a false breakout or a double top whatever japan
pushed out to all-time highs uh i think today um and then kind of faded off that volatility got
bid right at a trend uh volatility got bid right at a range where you expect to get bid and then
you know again we talked about the s&p and Qs, gap up and fade off of it.
So for me, I'm cautious.
You know, protect your chickens, for lack of a better term.
You know, try to take advantage of some of these moves that you've had.
There's plenty of names that have been mentioned in here.
And then just some of these, you know darlings just from a trading
perspective i'm not talking about the long-term capabilities of these names and these companies
from a trading perspective some of these darlings that have run up from the april lows
and have pushed i was just about to walk leo out but this is uh just breaking right now uh u.s
federal circuit appeals court has made a statement saying,
we need time to consider the filings that were made by the International Trade Court yesterday.
At the current time, we are blocking the injunction and reinstating the existing tariff policy.
So they are reversing the decision that was made yesterday until the appeals court can consider the filings. Yeah, I think I think I think Ed mentioned it during Options Mike's.
Oh, he did. Sorry. I didn't even know that I already mentioned yeah that was
actually his question to you yeah okay
honestly that'll keep the great question let's go stop hot start I'll teach you
go walk your dog stock talks man take, man. Can't walk your dog in the market?
Take care of your chores before the job, sir.
2 a.m. is the only safe time to walk a dog right now in this market.
He doesn't get his real walk during the day.
He gets his real walk at night.
That's someone that lives in Texas.
That's someone that doesn't want to be in the heat.
No, so just the last notice, some of these moves that you've seen,
they've run up pretty aggressively.
Take a look at like Robinhood, for example.
April Lowe is pressed right up against all-time highs, hasn't broken out.
You know, anything that could possibly be, you know, negative, that's a short-term.
Again, not speaking to the long-term perspectives of a company or the fundamentals, just from a trading perspective.
They're pushing a lot of these names pushing up against major levels, either double tops or, you know, fib retracements or, you know, downtrends, etc.
So it's kind of like the overall it's kind of like what my logic is.
I just want to be defensive here just in case.
just in case. Never know when you're going to get the next taco tweet.
Never know when you're going to get the next taco tweet.
Ariel, welcome to the stage. How are you?
I'm doing well, brother. How are you guys?
I'm fantastic. A little confused overall, like I have been for a while with all this stuff going
on. But what's your thoughts around all of this? Yeah. I mean, I was kind of looking at the NASDAQ today and we're up 30% in six, seven weeks,
effectively. The S&P 500 is up effectively a year's worth of gains in six, seven weeks.
When I kind of just look underneath the hood and you start to look at names like a GEV,
when I kind of just look underneath the hood and you start to look at names like, you know,
a GEV, an SE, a rubric, you know, it starts to, and even Bitcoin, if you think about it off of
the lows, you know, it's effectively straight up off the lows with no real digestion. And again,
same with an NVIDIA, right? You start to go up 40 percent on some of these names without any real digestion.
I don't want to get negative on the market here.
It's just the reality is, is that this is exactly how stocks move.
They go up, they digest, they go up, they digest, they go up, they digest.
And, you know, there are some periods where, you know, things can get a little bit nastier.
And, you know, it's like you everybody everybody kind of, you see the Nvidia earnings,
you know, we're gapping up, right. Apple's gapping up pretty hard overnight and Amazon's
gapping up pretty hard overnight. And Tesla's gapping back up after what looked like, you know,
some pretty mean selling off there. And then, you know, all of a sudden you come into today
and there's profit takers, you know, after a huge move off the lows, right from $90 effectively. And I don't think that there's anything wrong with that at all.
Some red flags, you know, an MSTR when Bitcoin's at all time highs was acting weak last Thursday.
Uber today, you know, losing the 20 simple moving average in a pretty big way on a pickup in volume.
Right. Bitcoin today as well, not really leading to the upside, you know, and showing relative strength as it's been doing.
So there are a few things where you could point to and say, hey, you know, and showing relative strength as it's been doing. So there are a few things where you could kind of point to and say, hey, you know what? You know, and I kind of put
a tweet out about it. It feels like today was a short term high, right? It's like I'm not calling
for a long term high, right? Long term markets tend to go up. But, you know, it's like the ES
is flashing a 6000 print in the morning and everybody thinks that's where we're going to wake up. But just considering where we've come from in such a short period of time,
I don't think that there is anything wrong with stocks digesting a little bit longer, right?
You've had some really big euphoria, you know, whether it be in the crypto or, you know,
your core weaves or your hoods and Palantir. And, you know, some of these stocks are still up 100% plus from April lows effectively.
So, you know, for some stocks to just kind of digest and chop around here,
I think is totally on par for the course.
I don't think that that's totally, you know, out of left field.
And even today, you know, I kind of was saying, hey, you know what,
I'm going to keep, you know, some of these, like, you know, even look at an Oaklow, right? It made
that big run up, it effectively, you know, came all the way back, you know, a few months ago,
and then all of a sudden, you know, we're right back up the right hand side of the chart,
you know, and some people will be like, oh, this is a cup and a handle. It's like, well, hold on a second. You know, it's never a
cup and a handle until the stock begins to consolidate for a few weeks on the right hand
side of the chart. And, you know, things just need to digest. And again, for me, it was like,
you know, is some of the air going to start to come out of a few of these names, right? If a GEV
starts to come down, you know, which is like,
kind of like your main player for the power generation. And, you know, I, again, I don't
think that there's anything wrong going on with the market. I just think that like anything,
things need to digest the euphoria kind of needs to cool off, right? Things just need that cool
off period, you know, how long it lasts, right? If somebody wants to maybe play in something inverse or short something and you begin to gain some traction and
then you take another short and you gain a little bit more traction and then another short and you
gain some more traction. Like for myself, I tried HIMSS yesterday and it stopped me out this morning.
I tried Dash, that stopped me out, right? My my Uber which I had been holding since 75 bucks
finally came and stopped me out today so it's like I'm losing some traction on the long side
but then on the flip side of that you know if you're going to take some shorts whether it be
an MSTR a few days ago you know maybe some of the euphoria and parabolic, you know, kind of like a first red day trade in core weave today, or, you know, maybe trying a few of these quantum
stocks effectively not finding a bid today.
You know, if you're starting to gain some traction on that side of the market, right,
it's okay to maybe try to look for another setup and then another one if the market's
starting to be friendly to that side of the market. But I'm not being negative. I think that this is completely
natural and that the market is just going through a digestion period, right? Again,
the NASDAQ going up 30% in six, seven weeks, that's a year's worth of gains in two months.
So just digest some of those gains. a stock like AVGO still looks awesome.
A stock like NVIDIA still acts really well.
A stock like Tesla I still think looks great. You know, Microsoft is still, you know, 10 bucks and a stone throw away from its own
all-time high, right?
There's nothing truly broken out there, at least not from my perspective.
And I think, you know, some digestion was just
kind of long overdue. It still feels like, you know, maybe there are some people off sides and
the pain trade is still higher. But these dips, you know, more than likely become viable. But
normally the first leg down, you know, after a sharp move up is the steepest. So I don't recommend
anybody go out there and just start trying to buy the first dip, you know, kind of let, you know after a sharp move up is the steepest so i don't recommend anybody go out there and just
start trying to buy the first dip you know kind of let you know price consolidate and then you
know start to look back at you know some of these stocks that that have been leadership and then to
see if you know i mean as silly as it might sound you know how how is nvidia and avgo still acting
because if you looked at arm today, you would be like, boy,
that's not too positive for semiconductors. Now, ARM's not a leader, but if you start to look at
an ARM and an AMAT and an AMD, those are your laggards. So they're not going to tell you as
much. So keep your eyes on the leaders. How are the leaders acting of any particular group?
And if those are acting well, and they're consolidating above your key moving averages and they're starting to even push out, you know, before your market, that's normal.
But again, for me, it's like Netflix has been one of my leaders now for six, seven weeks.
And, you know, today it's like finally having a pretty nasty distribution day.
So, again, just looking around, this doesn't feel completely abnormal. In fact, this is like a perfect time to take liquidity when everybody gets incredibly excited. You know, Jensen's talking about this is the start of the AI, you know, of whatever the hell he said yesterday. And the reality is, is this isn't the start, right? It's like we're in a period of kind of euphoria where stocks like Oklo and IONQ and Regetti
are just ripping effectively these, you know, low revenue to no revenue companies.
And, you know, it's like and then the best companies in the world have made really substantial
moves recently.
So, you know, we'll see kind of what happens in a few
weeks, but I'm still of the belief that, you know, for the ES or the S&P 500 today was probably our
short-term top for a few weeks. And, you know, we'll see again, you know, as we scan the market,
what's holding up best in a few weeks. Like I said, the first move down after a sharp move up
is usually the steepest. And then
price will begin to build higher lows and consolidate and volatility will contract a
little bit and then we'll take it from there. But if we're just looking at the biggest risk on risk
off asset, which has been Bitcoin for multiple years now, right now it's just digesting and there's nothing wrong with it. And what happens
from here is yet to be seen, but I'm remaining optimistic. I'm still positive, but of course,
I'm not going to get stubborn. If something like Uber is going to stop me out and break the 20
simple moving average, I can look at another setup like Spotify and say, hmm, that might be
doing something similar. Or I could look at a setup like Palantir going into Spotify and say, hmm, that might be doing something similar. Or I could look
at a setup like Palantir going into tomorrow and say, you know, if this thing starts to break that
little lower trend line and it's 20 simple moving average, this could also be a short opportunity
to tomorrow. So it's not lost on me that, you know, this thing could come lower and retest its
50 simple moving average and then maybe find some support there.
Similar to what MSTR has kind of been doing for the last few days, maybe a little bit of what Uber has been doing today could be what Palantir is doing tomorrow.
And that still wouldn't be too bad of price action.
So we'll kind of just take it one day at a time and we'll let the market pull us in, whether it's with shorts or with longs.
It really doesn't make too much of a difference to me.
But we'll see what, you know, how the cards kind of lay after a few weeks from now.
Because, again, the reality is things have gotten so far ahead of themselves in terms of it's like, you know, there is no fiscal stimulus going on.
But yet the market's V-shaped recovering like it's after COVID.
It was insane. And, you know, there's a bunch of bullish euphoria.
And, you know, it's like a good opportunity for some, you know, money to kind of come out of the markets.
And I don't know who it was. I think it even may have been Wolf, if I'm not mistaken.
Somebody here was saying, you know, there is some or even Frank, I believe, you know, saying, hey, you know, there is some or even frank i believe um you know saying
hey you know there's some selling to be done and i don't know if this is um you know kind of like
your market on close orders or rebalancing i don't know exactly um what he was referring to but you
know hey it's mike and it's me it's goldman said there's 19 billion left to be sold between now and
tomorrow um by the big funds and And that ranks 85%. So it's
pretty high level. So that's why I pointed out. Yeah, I appreciate that. Yeah. So that's who that
was. And yeah, it's like, you know, so some money is going to come out of the market after some
humongous bullish runs on a bunch of these stocks. You know, again, whether it be an IONQ.
And by the way, guys, when I think about like the IONQs and the OCLOS of the
world and these like effectively unprofitable, you know, low EPS, no real sales kind of companies
making these 100 plus percent moves like, you know, IONQ up 40 percent on the day as if they
cured cancer. Right. That's not the start of a bull market, in my opinion. That's like what kind
of happens at the tail end of a really euphoric run. And then, you know, stocks just kind of slowing down for a little bit,
you know, while the IONQs deflate. And then, you know, your leaders will go sideways,
you know, your unprofitables will start to round trip a big chunk of the move. And then, you know,
we see where we stand in terms of leadership from there. You know, is it going to go into,
you know, even these restaurant stocks?
Like I've started to notice EAT start to look better.
SHAQ start to look better.
You know, so DRI start to look better.
There are names out there of groups that are hanging in there.
And then again, you know, is the power generation names going to come back to life?
GEV going to continue higher.
It's not just going to continue higher from here
without some proper digestion. I mean, a big company like that being up 50% in 30 something
days. I mean, that's just a kind of insane. And it just is totally, like I said, on par for the
course for things to just slow down a moment, you know, everybody catch their breath and, you know,
we'll see where we stand in the next couple of weeks. And again, I'm not
bullish. I'm not bearish. I just trade setups as they're given to me. And the side of the market
where I'm gaining most traction is how I like to focus and where I like to focus more of my
attention on. If the market's rewarding me for being bullish, well, great. I had names like
CrowdStrike and Uber and Palantir and Netflix,
Tesla and Toast and TMDX and CLS and, you know, even a gold name like KGC. And, you know, even if I had to just kind of put a stamp on it, I'd say gold names look pretty damn good right now.
You know, they're not acting perfect at the moment, but gold and silver names don't act
too poorly. And, you know, even silver looks like, hey, if we get going back over 35 bucks, that's a breakout.
And, you know, who knows what comes from there. So, again, one day at a time.
Let's give it a few weeks. And when we revisit this conversation, there'll probably be a lot to talk about in the next few weeks.
Wolfie, jump in.
Wolfie, jump in.
Yeah, just following up on a comment he made
where he said some version of like,
it's not the leaders that are performing lately.
And that's like a tail end.
Yeah, generally in like the tail end of any time period move,
like the further out on the risk curve
and the smaller stuff starts to move,
they move pretty aggressively. And then the value stuff that didn't really,
you know, work as well, or didn't really work starts to find floors. And I think that part's
kind of important, like just take a look at things like GME in the last week, pretty aggressive,
you know, blow off into that Bitcoin announcement, gave the entire move back.
Again, I mentioned CoreWeave.
CoreWeave to me is like the most momentum centric name of the last month, at least one of them.
First time in a long time that it's made a new high and kind of given back.
And then on the flip side of what he said, he said some of the names that he mentioned,
but just take a look at stuff like, you know, Pepsi,
some of these oil names bouncing against major support levels.
Some of these other value names like Hormel and Ketchup,
KHC, things like that.
They're all starting to find these like bids, you know,
as we kind of digest and go sideways
i think that's i think that was like a really important uh comment that he made from a from
just a trading and a and a sentiment shift potential perspective
i appreciate the thoughts there wolfie empathy over Emp, I see you over there. I also saw your message.
You want to give it a test?
I'm good over here.
I just, we saved it.
We're still here.
I don't know if you guys got the message.
We haven't heard from some of the other people up here.
Gary, let's go over to you and see if you have any thoughts around the conversation so far
what's on your mind today Gary
well just correcting Wolfie
ketchup is the name of the condiment
it's Kraft Heinz is the name of the condiment
I call it ketchup
yeah my bad
I don't know if you do it but I have like all these
pet names for some of these
stocks right so like
ketchup is that one for there.
Yeah. Pet names are later on the thing. But I think everybody... Honestly, I don't even know
why I'm here. The reality of this market is it's uncomfortable to be a bull and you don't want to be a bear, um, because you're
just scared that you're going to be wrong.
And that's the way I feel.
I mean, you know, I put seven figures to work during the April kind of bottom during that
time.
And it felt uncomfortable at the time.
I didn't know if it was the bottom, but you know, Hey, I made a bet.
I'm going to lie in it.
I've said it for about two weeks now.
I think that the S&P is range bound between 5,000 and 6,000 as long as tariffs are still
in the mix. And I think the taco trade with Trump pushing everything out, at some point,
that becomes a reckoning. And sell in May and go away has been a decent thing. It's moved more to June
for like the past three years, where selling in June was a good thing and then buying back at the
bottom in August for the past few years. So I'm a guy who doesn't trade on a daily basis. I mean,
I'm a long-term investor. I'm just somebody who kind of, I'm sitting here doing nothing. I mean,
I'm not selling anything. I told my folks this morning, the fear that I always have at all-time
highs is it's like walking into a car dealership and seeing the sticker price and saying, I'll pay
more. Why? I mean, why do I want to buy at all-time highs? When I look at those little sliders that have the 52-week range on it and you're close to the top, it kind of tells me, hey, unless I have a thesis on this stock that is going to push it higher or I have a strategy that's long-term and I believe that it's going to go higher, why wouldn't I take profits? And I think you're at
that point with a lot of it. If I had to position people and tell people, sit down with yourself
and ask yourself, realistically, what's pushing us 500 points higher and what's pushing us 500
points lower on the S&P? Because that's 10%. I'd say that you could find 10 or 15 top of mind things that could push
you lower 500 points. And I think it'd be really hard for you to come with five or 10 things off
the top of your head that could push you 500 points higher. Doesn't mean that you can't go
500 points higher. It just means I'm feeling uncomfortable in the market.
And I think these guys pointed out perfectly. I think a lot of folks on this panel that need to do the options or take a shorter term view of the market, I think you've got it right. I'm just
a longer term. I think we're range bound. I'd rather be taking profits at these times during
the pop this morning. It was like, why would I buy this?
Tariffs are still in the realm. All it did was kind of push things out. So I don't feel comfortable in the market. Doesn't mean that I'm feeling comfortable enough to buy. Doesn't mean
that I'm feeling comfortable enough to sell either. So I'm just kind of sitting here doing
nothing. So again, I don't even know why I'm on this panel, but hopefully it helped somebody.
So again, I don't even know why I'm on this panel, but hopefully it helped somebody.
I do like the perspective because I was going to ask you, as more of an investor and not like a super active trader or anything, I don't know how active of an investor you are.
But I feel like if I'm looking at this from just the investment standpoint, just not an active trader standpoint, I don't know that I want to do anything with this market right here until things are sorted out.
Right.
I mean, again, from a longer term perspective, I've never done an option in my life.
I am too dumb to do options, but I am smart enough that I have made an average person living to make enough money that I don't ever need to work again in my life.
So I've done really well in that
perspective. And it's times like this, 2008, great time to trade. 2009, felt a little bit
uncomfortable. You had to find your spots. I'd rather buy something that's 10% off the all-time
high than something that's 5% off the all-time high. It doesn't mean that it's not going to go up.
It doesn't mean that I can't find a thesis for it. Apple's a great example. In the past,
I've always had great thesis on Apple. I'm not giving up any thesis on Apple. I still think
it's a great company that puts off great cash, but am I comfortable holding this thing at, I think, 24, 25 times forward earnings with 4% or 5% year-over-year gross revenue growth?
It doesn't feel comfortable to me.
Yet my entire portfolio, I think I'm sitting there with about 50%, 60%.
Currently, my portfolio is made up of Apple.
I like that it got over 200 today.
Don't like the fact that it couldn't hold over 200.
I like that there's rumors out there that WWDC, like last year, may provide it a boost.
So I'm not sitting there doing anything.
And I don't think you have to do anything every day in the market.
For somebody like me, I know plenty of rich folks like me that I talk to all
the time. I'm way more active than they are. They're like, how can you look at the market every
day? I look at it, but I don't necessarily take action. It takes a lot for me to take an action.
And maybe I'm trading twice a week, three times a week. And for many people, that tends to be a lot.
For people on this space,
you're probably trading a lot more than that. I would say step back and make your thesis on
the large market, then go into the small market. Because the large market, again, unless you're
picking a stock that's going to be a huge winner, which I don't know. I mean, Estee Lauder, Michael Burry put his money into that one. It's reaching a new higher low, I guess. I mean, that one seems to be pushing around.
Elf, the beauty thing, they bought a company today and it's up 25%. Do you get into that
falling knife and buy into that growth story? But I think that the big movers like Palantir at 120, I'm not
touching Palantir at 120. Uber at 90, it was clearly a sell at 90, even though I do think
at some point it gets to $100 stock. NVIDIA, I said it yesterday, I think NVIDIA touches 160 at some point this year. But if you didn't buy NVIDIA at 100, why are you buying it today at 140?
And if you bought it at 120 and you said, well, it's getting towards its all-time high at 150,
why are you not trimming that as it popped towards 150 today?
So I think there's ways to look at this from a long-term
perspective and just create your own strategy. But I think everybody else has probably a better
look at it from a daily standpoint. I'm just saying, hey, the market's not telling me to do
a damn thing right now. I do think that the next, if you put a gun to my head and said,
now. I do think that the next, if you had to,
if you put a gun to my head and said, where's the next 500 points in the S&P,
I would say it's down.
Just, just real quick, Gary, you're here for the sponsors.
Yeah, I think, I think I do push sponsorships, but yeah, no, somebody,
somebody said my voice grates on them this morning. I said,
why are you tuning into a podcast where the voice grates on you?
But, hey, the content is gold.
Appreciate those thoughts, Gary.
Monit, if I haven't heard from you this afternoon, what's your take on everything going on?
I know I listened to some of your takes last night but I was curious have you organized your thoughts
a little bit around everything going on what do you have for us this afternoon
so let's let's I have a few comments from from what I heard I do agree with
with with daily stock pick I'm a lot more like him i don't work anymore i manage my money
i'm comfortable doing it i don't need a daily income from this so i don't need to trade i
trade maybe uh like he said two three times a week and that too sometimes out of boredom than
anything else uh my high conviction trades are probably one or two a month.
And I'm very happy just doing that.
I don't need any, you know, I don't need to, you know, make something on a daily basis.
So I was just listening to him say about NVIDIA.
So I got into NVIDvidia somewhere around just below 105 and uh i posted on discord
yesterday as as they were uh you know going through the earnings i sold five percent at uh
at what was that 140 and today i sold another five percent at 143. I'm comfortable with that. I'm comfortable letting the rest ride because I went through every part of their earnings.
I listened.
I, you know, called up my contacts, talked to them.
And I'm very comfortable that we're not going to, you know, break down completely.
And even if we do, my cost is at a place where I will add more if it breaks down.
is at a place where I will add more if it breaks down.
So that's, I mean, look,
you saw a whole bunch of price target upgrades today,
but there were nothing that is shockingly good.
Everybody has the same opinion.
There is another 10, 15% left to run,
but it might take a while to get there.
There is still a lot of uncertainty,
nothing to do with the company's execution.
That's the problem.
If it was all within the control of Jensen and his team,
the price target upgrades would have been much, much, much, much larger.
Instead of a 10% upgrade,
there would have been price target ups of 20%, 25%,
given where their margin profile is right now percent upgrade there would have been you know price target ups of 20 25 percent given you know
where their margin profile is right now and given that you know conservatively they're projecting
to hit above 75 for the year so so this is sort of outside their control which which is why it
makes sense to you know take some profits here and not get aggressively long here right let it play out let let things settle uh and even
if you have settlement with um with with with tariffs it doesn't help jensen right they need a
policy change and that's a bigger problem so so it is really not under their control so yeah i
understand you know where the analysts are coming from but i also you know want to make it clear
the company's execution has been flawless and it's solid uh just staying on that point for a while longer i think
it was ariel that uh was talking about it so jensen did say very clearly that we are at the
beginning of you know of of of this revolution he was not talking about stock price right he
could care less he was talking about the ai thematic which
is clearly in very very early stages and that's that's all he was saying he does not talk about
stock price as he shouldn't so so anyway just that uh ariel if i misunderstood you i'm sorry
i don't mean to pick on you but i just heard that i wanted to correct that. That's all. But if I misunderstood you, I'm sorry.
So just going back,
I talked about it in another space yesterday.
We are going to finish this quarter, right?
It's pretty much done.
I think there's a whole bunch of companies reporting today
that could be interesting.
But for all practical purposes,
S&P's numbers are written you know, written in stone.
5% revenue growth, 14% earnings growth is just fantastic.
Just for comparison, we did 5.2% revenue growth
and 17% earnings growth last quarter.
So even with all the noise we've had,
you know, we just slowed down a little bit there for consecutive quarter growth.
And earnings growth at 5% is actually insanely good.
The problem is when you look forward, the next three quarter projections are coming down as they normally do as we get closer to the end of the quarter.
coming down as they normally do as we get closer to the end of the quarter.
But we are pretty much at the lows of projections for, I don't know, six, seven quarters now.
So projection for Q2, I'm looking at tax in LSEG, right?
which is basically uh what was it 3.6 percent revenue growth and 5.8 5.9 percent earnings
growth that is low uh going forward 4.1 percent revenue growth and 7.9 percent earnings for q3
4.8 and 6 for q4 so the rest of the year, we are talking mid-single-digit growth.
And that is a lot lower than how we finished out last year.
So that is something to pay attention to.
Remember, at those growth rates, valuations look even more stretched than they are today.
So that's a risk that bears watching.
And people have to, you know, place their bets based on that.
The rest beyond 26, I mean, 26 numbers really,
you know, it's a little too early to talk about
since meaningless numbers.
But Q2 is not setting up all that great.
Now, you know, granted that expectations are low means beats are easier.
So that's one way of looking at it.
But as it stands now, analysts don't expect companies to do all that great next quarter.
And Monitiv, wouldn't that, I thought the earnings beat a lot of it was based on tariffs
spring forward, basically people loading up on purchases and stuff, which would even put
the next quarter at a lower rate.
For consumption companies, right?
So consumer staples and consumer discretionary, that is
certainly very true. It is to a lesser extent true for industrials, which are stocking up on
consumables, on spare parts, things like that. But there's also a reverse condition that's true. I'll just give you a quick example. So because of tariff, a company like ACCO or CNH
that imports a lot of machinery from outside the US
put it on hold because their customers
don't want to pay the tariff.
There's demand for it.
They just decided to push it out
and they took the hit
in in you know started taking the hit and and and guide it down for next quarter
now if if we if we had stayed the the the the the tariff uh policy you know from yesterday's news
now it's irrelevant right now because that's also reversed
but if if that becomes true or that comes true on appeal right if if the courts this the trade
court's decision is withheld on appeal then you have a whole burst of orders coming in from you
know products that are already sold but were not brought in because you know a whole burst of orders coming in from, you know, products that are already sold, but were not brought in because, you know,
a couple of hundred thousand, seven,
800 thousand million dollar combined at 20% tariff could, could easily,
you know, be out of reach of, you know, even a, even a large farmer.
So, so some of those things, there is a positive and a negative,
but certainly for staples and discretionary as a larger, I mean, in a larger sense, are likely to be the most impacted.
Tech, probably less so anyway.
But I think what's relevant for tech, and I've not heard this discussion here, is Germany is proposing a 10% tax on online.
You know, that was coming, right? Anybody, you know, I posted on Discord
saying that, you know, any functioning adult would have seen that, you know, it was an easy,
you know, low-hanging fruit to hit back US and we had no way of, you know, fighting back against
that. If we keep pushing these tariff policies on others you're gonna see that
that um that that that they're gonna get back on tech and services in general and there goes your
balance of trade again right that the only positive contribution we had is now under attack
and if that happens you know your your your s&P numbers are going to look far, far worse.
Imagine taking out the largest contributor to your profitability and then financial services,
which is the second largest, very close contributor to S&P profitability.
Between those two sectors is over 65% of S&P's profits.
sectors is over 65% of S&P's profits. So you take that down by 20%, you're going to see a nasty
revaluation of S&P. And that, see, this is the kind of stuff that I, you know, look at on a
daily basis. It doesn't change on a daily basis, but, you know, this is the data that that that i take and and and calculate up and down
to see you know where the higher risks are and right now you know it's it's not the it's not
the upside that that that that that i see it's it's it's the risk of downside is increasing more
and more certainly on a valuation basis, if nothing else.
So I just wanted to add some comments on your discussion as far as earnings expectations for the S&P 500 for the next couple of quarters.
I mean, that's my case that I've certainly contracted quite a bit, but we also got to
remember the US dollar did depreciate quite a good amount.
Damn, your mic is terrible right now.
Okay, let me do something else.
While Sam's fixing that, do we get to everyone?
Is Spartan on stage?
I can't really see.
I've seen a lot of listeners.
But Spartan's up here.
Can get his perspective. Yeah, sure. I i'm here you guys can hear me fine yeah i got you okay good uh yeah so you know i think and i've said this many times but i think don't don't try to figure
out what's going to happen with the market the market changes so much i mean look at the last
12 hours no one could have guessed what was going to happen. And you can't. But one thing that doesn't lie is price
action. Price action doesn't lie. It hasn't the entire time. I think when everyone was, you know,
when the semis were selling off, everyone was kicking and screaming. We were grabbing them
on valuation. I was on Spaces, I don't know, two months ago talking about that. There's a couple
facts you can kind of look at when we're looking at the big cap names. Now, are there names that have decent valuations at this curb price? Sure.
From a fundamental standpoint, there probably is. I think what you need to do is you need to align
the technicals with the fundamentals in this type of environment because, you know, you really can't
just go off of one thing. You've got to combine things in this environment.
Now, if I'm looking at, let's like talk about the semiconductors, for instance, you know,
at these valuations, do these still make sense to own?
Absolutely.
Would I go in and, you know, go, you know, buying hand over fist?
Probably not.
I'd probably wait in the short term to see what's going on.
What we're looking at on the market from a technical standpoint is it still looks bullish.
It looks great, in my opinion. It's a little bit extended to the upside today,
but it looks fine. I think the last 12 hours, obviously the market doesn't love uncertainty,
but it held up pretty damn well, I would say. The issue I see is what's going to be the catalyst
going forward? Well, obviously we're going to be looking for more positive developments in terms of understanding what's going on with the tariffs and all that stuff.
It's going to go to the Supreme Court, and we'll see what happens there.
But looking at the entire environment as a whole, we've got to consider what's going on with the bond market as well.
I think that's going to be probably an overhang for the market for the next kind of foreseeable future. I see that probably going to be
quite important in the next month. But again, you want to trade off the technicals. I think
if you are afraid to do anything day to day, that's fine. Stay out of the market then.
Position when you see valuations come into levels of a sense and then, you know, basically wait. If, you know, there's a lot of trading,
I think this is probably the best trading environment I've seen in four or five years.
There's so much range intraday. If you are a trader, it's a good market, but I wouldn't be
overnighting too many things. Essentially, you know, getting in and out day to day or short term,
you know, one, two, three day hold, buying off of bottom end range supports because the market is still trending to the upside.
Right now we are a little bit extended.
I think that extension is probably going to fill in the next 24 hours.
I don't think it's going to be a big pullback.
I think it's going to be a little bit muted.
And, you know, we'll see what happens from there.
The only the only, you know, kind of issue I have with the upside is I just don't know what the cattle
circuit to continue to be.
Now that we have all these kinds of big earnings out of the way and there's a
little bit of uncertainty in the market,
I think you've got to be a little bit cautious. I'm hedging here.
The cues I'm going to be looking at in particular on that because obviously
techs had a pretty decent rip to the upside.
You got to keep an eye on some of these small cap names.
There's obviously been a lot of blowoffs.
And usually when you get a blowoff in the small cap market,
it's pretty indicative of a top in the short term.
So I got to keep that in mind as well.
But by no means am I, you know, extremely bearish on the market.
I'm just saying, hey, you know, short term, we're a little extended.
I think we'll get a, you know, pullback.
We'll see what happens if these trends hold.
I think we continue to grind higher in that regard.
From a macro standpoint, I'm not going to try to guess what's going to happen.
I don't know. I think if you try to trade
what you think is going to happen on the market on the macro side, you're probably going to get
smoked because things come out of left field like they did yesterday and then today
all the
time. So, you know, stick with the charts, stick with the technicals. I think you play a little
bit more on the conservative side. You wait till your support levels are being tested. You wait
till you see valuations come in if you're a long-term trader at levels you like, and then
that's when you go after it. So it's a market of patience. And then if you're a short-term trader,
there's certainly a ton of volatility to go after intraday.
So, you know, I would say go after it,
but just be cautious holding overnight with size.
That's, you know, kind of the way that I'm approaching it.
And, you know, I've had the best trading month this year so far in May,
and it hasn't been, you know, that,
it's been a little bit on the choppier side,
but the ranges have been massive.
So there's a lot of opportunity in that.
Anyways, guys, that's, that's kind of what I'm looking at right now. And I wrote more on the choppier side, but the ranges have been massive. So there's a lot of opportunity in that. Anyways, guys, that's kind of what I'm looking at right now.
And I run more on the, you know, well-versed on the macro side.
I'm definitely more of a technical momentum type of guy.
So that's just the way I look at it.
Appreciate those thoughts, Spartan.
Thanks for joining this afternoon.
We are just a couple minutes from the final bell.
Stock Sniper, do you want to jump in and give us a quick
rundown of some of the earnings numbers for after hours yes sir do you hear me all right
gotcha nice um yeah for our most anticipated earnings you know we kind of got like a
miscellaneous earnings day one of the last uh let's say um last days with several um significant
companies reporting but we got costco at 415 we got Costco at $4.15.
We got Dell at $4.05, Marvell at $4.05, Ulta at $4.05,
and the full schedule, I have it all posted on my page.
But there's like 10 other names that are reporting.
Some people might care about them, but they're pretty small.
With Costco, we have an insanely small move expected today.
We're only looking for a 2.75% move or a $27.79 move um with costco's previous reactions we could see it went down 6.07 last quarter um but other than that there hasn't
really been much crazy moves in costco out of the last four reports um when we go over to marvell
though we're expecting an 8.8 move so it should be pretty nice there or five dollars and 63 cents
one thing that is interesting about this name is since the last report in the last quarter marvell's down 28.94 percent um this name
still has not been it's not one of the slower ones to recover here um but we could see some
previous reactions on this name uh minus 19.86 percent down last quarter and plus 23.19 percent
up the quarter before that um four quarters ago we saw minus 10.46 down but um we've seen some pretty
crazy reactions on marvell um with ulta beauty uh we have a pretty normal um expectation um our
implied move is 25.83 or 6.18 we typically see that um that's very common for this name i want
to say it's pretty similar in open interest towards the last quarter if not within 5 000 of it um but our previous reactions we could see a plus 13.68 um last report plus 8.99 the report before that and then minus
4.01 three reports ago um since the last report though uh ulta is up 32.89 so it has had quite a
quarter um and you know i think a lot of people are gonna be watching for this one you know if
they get another good report today that would be three in a row. It would be really big for
Ulta Beauty. Of course, though, the last one that anybody really cares about, and you know,
this guy doesn't really move too much, but we got Dell earnings at $8.74 implied move or 7.78%.
When we look at our previous reactions, we haven't really seen too much out of Dell this year. But
since the last report, Dell is up 4.2020 pretty much the same exact spot where they were at last quarter coming into
this earnings so you know not much has really changed on dell um open interest is at 705 613
which is relatively normal for dell as well but um that's pretty much everything that i got for
you guys today um i will be posting the earnings results and blurbing them out as they
come out but um 405 we should be getting a lot of them market did close right there uh green day
compared to yesterday's close went a long way to go nowhere here at the end of the day
okay i will take that opportunity to jump in here so uh yeah obviously a lot of a lot of commentary about today it seems
i don't know every time we get any sort of lack of a bid there's um a lot of clamor about why
what could be coming you know is this the local top it's like literally every single time and
today wasn't even a red day but you know you still got a lot of the red day commentary.
Look, no one knows what's going to happen on the headline level. You can monitor things
that you think are coming and there's going to be probably another headline that you don't expect
pretty soon after that. And so the idea of trying to
pretty soon after that. And so the idea of trying to
map out like a cause and effect on the macroeconomic side and overlay that to what
you do in the market is kind of like a crazy idea, especially in a headline driven market like this.
What you should instead be doing is focusing on baskets of stocks that you know well,
companies you're familiar with. And with a little bit of
technical literacy, you can monitor areas on those charts, look for areas of support,
understand when charts are breaking down versus holding up, especially in environments like this,
you can do very basic relative strength analysis and just see what's catching a bid and what's
holding up. I did do a couple of things today, so I guess I'll go over
what I did before I get into more of my thoughts on macro, because I think what I did is actually
more useful. I actually think we should all talk a little bit more about that. But I closed my SMR
position. So we opened this on May 9th at $17.20.
And in less than a month since, 20 days since, the stock has doubled.
And this morning when momentum names were kind of weak in the morning, I was sort of looking at my portfolio and I was like,
we're up so huge on this thing that I just decided to cut it in the morning
when it was up about down about two or 3%.
And it ended up being a good decision.
It fell a lot more than that. We actually make it made a quick day trade off the lows on it as well
on the headline about the regulatory approval. So that was a nice little bonus. But yeah, I mean,
100 percent on equity, 830 percent on the options in 20 days is pretty freaking good. So locked in
a lot of profit on that and closed
that position fully today, but I'm not getting out of the nuclear trade. I'm still full size
and centrist energy, ticker LEU, which I've talked about here before, but they're the only domestic
enricher of uranium. And I think they're going to be in pole vault position with all of
this new nuclear policy. And I think the market cap is still very reasonable considering how
uniquely positioned they are in the domestic market. So that's going to probably become a
core position for me. Even if these names do end up coming back, I was able to snag that at 96 when this whole nuclear craze started.
And so I have a nice cushion on that, on the shares. And the reason I'm thinking of making
a core position now is just because I've traded this thing like so many times over the past five
years. And every time I revisit it, the stock is like materially higher. So at this point,
I'm just like, okay, this company is's executing they are expanding their market share and they're just in an enormously enviable thematic
position with everything that's happening in in nuclear so if the stock does come back with these
nuclear stocks do come back which some of them came back a little bit today maybe they'll come
back some more in the coming weeks that will be a stock that'll be a dip buyer on if it does come back near my
cost basis which no guarantee but if it does uh that's a stock where i'd consider dip buying and
i also upped my exposure to another sort of indirect nuclear name today which is gsrt
now in this sort of hyper volatile market these are the type of opportunities where I want to put capital.
So GSRT is a pre-merger SPAC.
For those that don't know, pre-merger SPACs are NAV protected, which means they have a maximum risk of the floor of the price and the trust.
So they all have a trust price per share at which you can resume.
Real quick.
Sorry, real quick.
Dell's out, up 10%.
Nice.
Nice.
Any particular headlines out of that?
Hey, they have earnings.
I'm going to go in and say something before you start up again.
But Marvell just came out.
62 cent EPS versus 61 cent expectation.
1.895 billion revenue first 1.88
expected so double beat by marvell nice um yeah so gsrt is a is back that currently has a nav
somewhere between 10 17 and 10 25 as of the last filing it was 10 17 but there have been
this is all complicated17 but there have been
this is all complicated stuff but there have been contribution contributions made to the trust since then so the nav has actually technically gone up a little bit um what it basically means is that
your maximum risk is whatever that net asset value is so the stock right now as of this morning at
least was trading around 1060 i think it closed
around 1055 or whatever that means your maximum risk on the position is roughly four percent
like your maximum risk assuming you hold it you know you don't hold it through the merger right
that risk floor is only intact pre-merger so before the merger happens there'll be a redemption
deadline at which point you can redeem your shares for the net asset value.
That's basically a crash course in how SPACs work.
Anyway, stocks trading like 1050, 1060, it's 4% above NAV, and it's an SMR stock.
Okay.
Some people say they're not in as good of a position as others.
Their investor presentation says they're in a good position.
I don't really think that's relevant. You know, their pre-money valuation at NAV is $475 million.
SMR, for example, the position I exited today is also pre-revenue, pre-commercial, small modular reactor company.
It's trading at a $10 billion valuation.
Neither of them have any revenue.
You know, SMR is closer to commercialization, has a more sustainable and available fuel source.
So, you know, you make an argument that it should be trading at a higher valuation, but should it be trading at, you know, $500 million versus $10 billion?
I don't think so.
And so I think there's a valuation arbitrage to be made here.
And I think it's a low risk valuation arbitrage. And so I upsized that position again today. It's now approaching 9% of my portfolio, which is pretty big size for me because I run 15-ish
positions at any given time. So that's a pretty big size for me. And I probably will continue to increase the size if it sits around here.
In fact, if it goes lower into the 1030s or 1020s, I'll probably increase my size more.
So I just want to mention that opportunity.
If people like low-risk opportunities, that's a low-risk opportunity.
You allocate however much money you're okay with losing 4% on is how I like to think of these things.
If losing 4% on whatever money you're putting into it is too much, then don't allocate
that capital, right? Because that is your risk. And in the case where the market turns down or
whatever, SPACs aren't just going to run for no reason. Well, they might, but you know, they're
probably not. And so you have a 4% risk in that scenario. And so, you know, be mindful of that.
But I do think it's an interesting opportunity. i bought more today of it and i already own a decent amount so yeah anyway that's gsrt
uh pre-merger spec and then i also bought something else today which
uh it's kind of a weird stock but i bought warby parker um this morning, ticker WRBY, we opened it around 2020, closed around 2070.
So we got a nice little 3%, 4%, or not 3%, 4%, but 3% cushion-ish on the position.
Options up about 15%.
So that's a nice little intraday move, especially considering most stuff faded during the day
especially considering most stuff faded during the day and Warby didn't.
and Warby didn't.
Warby went up during the day.
But for those that don't know, Warby signed a partnership with Google
to produce real world, you know, stylish, I guess, quote unquote,
glasses similar to Meta's Ray-Bans.
And so I thought that was interesting.
I peeped the daily chart this morning and thought the daily chart was pretty.
So that was good enough for me. the daily chart this morning and thought the daily chart was pretty so that was good enough for me pretty daily chart cool catalyst um you know uh that was pretty
that's it so i opened a position in that uh because of those two simple reasons today and
you know i think it's interesting i think if it breaks above this you know 25 ish area i think
we get a nice move out of it. So
Yeah, that's pretty much what I did today closed SMR
Added a little bit to GSRT and open a new position or be Parker
Quick real touch back on the macro. Oh shit. Wolfie. I didn't miss your hand up. Go for it
So good. I don't want to interrupt you Ulta beats by 89 cents beats on beats on revenue, comps up to 0.9%, raises full year guidance, slightly raises upper end of revenue, raises upper end of comp guidance range as well. Stocks to 28.5 billion to 29.5 billion versus 25, three, three expectation. And that's kind of why the stocks up.
Not kind of, that is why the stock went up.
Nice. Nice. There's some nice earnings there after hours, but yeah,
just cycling back real quick, just touch on the macro.
Cause I know that's in front of everyone's minds after the last 12 hours.
I don't know what's going to happen with the appeals process.
I'm not going to pretend to know.
We obviously had the first appeals ruling today, which isn't really a ruling.
They're just saying they need time to look over the filings.
So we'll see that federal court of appeals make an actual ruling probably within the next few weeks, I would imagine,
make an actual ruling probably within the next few weeks, I would imagine, because I imagine
this process is being accelerated or is being requested to be accelerated by the White House
due to the sensitive nature, obviously, of trade policy and the fluidity of it. So I imagine this
will happen more quickly than traditional court challenges. That's my guess. I don't know for a fact,
but that's my guess. So I think we'll probably have some answers around that in a few weeks,
but I obviously don't know what decision is going to be made. Piper had a note out this morning
saying they think the Supreme Court would side with the U.S. Court of International Trade in
this instance. Then you also had Goldman Sachs coming out saying, this is a nothing burger because there's other tools to impose tariffs. Then you had Evercore
coming out saying that the Supreme Court will not side with the international court ruling.
So literally, people have taken every opinion on this. People have taken that it doesn't matter
opinion. People have taken that it's going to get confirmed opinion. People have taken that it's
going to get overturned opinion. And people have made pretty good arguments in all directions.
So I don't know what's going to happen.
But one thing I think we can deduce from this whole charade of the last few months
is that we are going to see softer tariff policy than we initially thought.
Whether it's through the process of negotiation and trade deals and concessions or whether it's through the process of negotiation and trade deals and
concessions or whether it's through the process of court orders.
I mean, net net, the result is the same, in my view, which is softer tariff policy.
And so I think that is the saving grace in this market in terms of narrative.
The idea that, look, despite all the drama, despite all the uncertainty, we are in a better place than we were on April 2nd when it comes to the numbers on the paper.
OK, so that's a fact. Now, has the market already priced in that enthusiasm?
That's an entirely separate conversation. And maybe some of the people who are selling stocks today felt that to be the case, right? I think some of the sellers today probably felt, okay, yeah, we've gone to the road of
another chapter in this tariff story, but look, the markets have rallied a lot.
Maybe the enthusiasm is baked in.
What I will say is if the hard data doesn't start showing some signs of weakness into the summer, then
the yield problem is probably going to take the forefront over the tariff problem.
I tweeted this earlier as well, but I think at this point, everyone's sort of not even
boy who cried wolf about the tariff thing, but they're just exhausted with the back and
forth.
I mean, at least I am.
I think people who follow it closely probably are exhausted with the back and forth. I mean, at least I am. I think people who follow it closely probably are exhausted with it. So at a certain point, the market will become exhausted with the
narrative and they will move on to the next prevailing concern or the next prevailing
narrative. And that is probably going to be the bond market because amidst all of this back and
forth in the equity markets, the tariff drama, the in the backdrop has been ominous bond market activity, to be frank.
Now, you know, if if we can find a way, whether it's through data or through the Fed just outright coming out and cutting rates, either way, we can get some softness and yields.
We can get some softness and yields.
But one of those two things have to happen.
But one of those two things have to happen.
You know, some people looked at today's housing data and they were like, OK, you know, really bad print for housing data today.
And, you know, maybe it's the start of something bigger.
Maybe, you know, we have to see another follow up print.
You know, if we get a couple more follow up prints like that from a housing standpoint, then, yeah, the Fed may start to factor that in when it comes to their stance on rates.
And that may lead to lower rates that in a vacuum may even lead to lower rates,
a stall in housing market activity if it's a big enough stall.
So there are potential catalysts on the table that could drive the Fed's hand to cut rates.
You just have to hope that they're not big problems, that they're not real systemic economic
problems that could induce a recession.
Because if they are, then equities are probably headed lower.
Hey, Stock Talk.
Yeah.
I'm going to cut you off for a second.
Costco.
Costco just came out.
EPS at $4.28, expected $4.24, is $63.20 billion, expected $63.10 billion.
Double beat on Costco.
Nice. What's up, Wolfie?
I have a point after you're done.
I'm just going to take you back off of the Powell's.
Okay, so I don't think anybody mentioned this. Powell actually met with Trump today at the White House.
And the report said that Powell didn't discuss expectations for monetary policy,
except that he stressed that the path of the policy is going to be dependent entirely on incoming economic information
and what that means for the outlook.
And he also said that his colleagues at the FOMC are going to set policy as required by law to support maximum employment.
And then I saw a headline afterwards that said the White House said Trump told Fed Chair Powell it's a mistake not to lower interest rates.
fed chair pal it's a mistake not to lower interest rates so just to piggyback off the rates comment
i think the one thing about i do i do agree that the tariffs are going to be materially lower than
first expected likely um but the one the one thing that i will say is i think the you know the just to look out into the future obviously
nobody knows nobody has crystal ball but just the things to kind of you know plan for you've got the
90-day china window basically it's going to fall uh close it's going to fall shortly thereafter
after the july 9th europe headline and then uh it's also going to probably fall after the July 9th Europe headline. And then it's also going to probably fall after the Fed
does not lower interest rates in June. So I think there is a potential where all these things kind
of like have a confluence at once, where he's not getting what he wants from Powell,
because if he's going to stick to this data dependent thing,
I don't think anything between now and I think, what is it?
June 19th, the date is going to go, you know,
materially lowered to, to, for them to cut. Uh, and then if,
then you look out to the July, I think it's July 9th for the EU.
And then thereafter for that, um, that last,
I think two week window for the, for the China can kick. I think that last, I think, two-week window for the China can kick,
I think that's where you start to plan, I think,
for the potential headline berate between he and the Fed.
So I just wanted to add that because I don't think anyone mentioned today
that they spoke at the White House.
Hey, Wolfie, just want to add,
that is also right in the middle of the
pre-announcement season yeah it's also it's also if you went back and looked at the you looked at
like when we were in the throes of covet people were putting out these calendars for when you can
start to see you know tariffs actually materially start to impact
like the consumer prices.
And that was like right in the thick of it.
So I'm interested just how these things kind of unfold.
Obviously, the first one being the Fed in the middle of late June, and then how it unfolds
with the EU and so on and so forth.
Because Monitiv also mentioned the german headline for the 10
uh what was it monitive 10 uh internet tax basically yep pretty much yeah so we kind of get
in a summer you know obviously summer's generally more quiet than other times of the year for for
market participation,
people on vacation, stuff like that. But like,
kind of in the middle of it,
we get these things that kind of happen semi simultaneously.
Stock talk. What's up when it when it comes to this where we're at with all the legal battle and stuff going on i mean really we're right back to where we were yesterday when the news
started coming out uh i mean it's basically unchanged while the challenge is going on.
But when you dig into it, did you have any takes around the legalities of,
I don't know, did you read into the decision?
There was also another, a DC Circuit judge came out today
and basically reiterated an opinion that it was for all companies,
not just the two that were previously suing.
Did you have any takeaways from that?
You know, a summary judgment against the administration, basically saying that what
they're doing doesn't classify as national security and they can't do it on that means.
And then obviously we heard Levitt today come back and say, well, we've got other avenues
too.
So it's like, it's interesting because they're arguing
like that they're right but they're also saying but we've we still have plan b and plan c ready
yeah i mean the reality is is like i mean goldman's piece on this was what everyone
was sharing this morning and i mean goldman was kind of the one that brought up this whole section 122 thing.
The reality is, is that the president does have an enormous amount of power over trade. And
that's through various pieces of legislation that have been passed, you know, in the 30s,
40s, 50s, 60s, that, you know, are still codified in law and haven't been rewritten and new laws that
contradict those laws haven't been written. And so the point of that is to say that there are a
lot of baskets into which the administration can reach in order to affect tariffs. And so this is one avenue that is being potentially cut off,
because we don't even know. The appeals court may rule in the administration's favor.
But really, the debate is around the idea, it's a very subjective debate. It's around the idea
of how the emergency powers should be classified. The debate debate here is what should it take for a
president to declare a national emergency? The White House is arguing that fentanyl and the U.S.
debt crisis are national emergencies, which to be frank, you can probably make a decent argument
for those. But the question is, is are those arguments significant enough to invoke this sort of measure?
And the court is basically saying, no, you can't magnify certain political issues into
emergencies in order to invoke emergency powers.
That's what the court ruled.
A lot of people yesterday were saying, were missharing the story, saying that the court ruled that the president can't impose tariffs.
That's not what they said. That's written in law. The president can impose tariffs for national
security purposes. That's written in law, right? That's the IEPA powers. Some people in like the comments of some of those posts thought
it was like a court or something, but the IEPA powers are what gives the president the right to
do this. What is being brought into question is the justification for the use of those powers.
And so that's why the appeals decision is so unpredictable because it is going to depend on
the subjective opinion of that panel of judges, right now, it's going to go to nine judges.
Then it will go to a full appeals court of judges if there's another appeal.
And then if there's another appeal after that, then it'll go to the Supreme Court.
But along the way, at all of those junctures, people will be deciding it because it's not as black and white as other judicial precedents, if you will. Like, this is
the judgment of people to say, hey, this is within the realm of emergency powers, or this is not
within the realm of emergency powers, because it's not spelled out, right? Like, the dictation of
what is a national emergency is not well spelled out in these laws. And so, as a consequence of that, there's room for interpretation. so as a consequence of that, there's room for
interpretation. And as a consequence of that, there's room for judicial interpretation as well,
right? Anytime a law is unspecific, there's room for interpretation on both the executive and
legislative side of that law and on the judicial side of that law. So that's kind of where we're
at right now. And that's why, you know, there's so many opinions out there about what's going to happen in the appeals process, because the reality is, is nobody knows. You get a
favorable judge that's, you know, a conservative judge that has been, you know, affiliated with
the Republican party. I know we don't like to put party labels on judges, but the reality is,
is most judges in this country have party labels, whether you like it or not. You get a Republican judge, you get a conservative host of judges, maybe they rule in
favor of the administration. You get a more liberal host of judges, maybe they rule against
the administration. That's kind of the political reality we're in with the judicial system, right?
It works both ways. And so, yeah, I don't know. That's all all to say I don't know what's going to happen but that's
just an explanation of the process from from here on and and what it you know what to watch for and
what it might look like but again I really think if we rewind the clock before this whole decision
happened like what was the base case we were dealing with? We were dealing with the EU under negotiation, tariffs paused till July 9th, China under negotiation, tariffs lowered and other
tariffs delayed. And then everyone else doesn't really matter. So we were already making progress
with the two entities that matter prior to this decision. So like, I think it's also part of the reason why markets didn't
absolutely dump red today. Right. Like you kind of saw markets hold at that red to green spot.
I think what I'm saying right now is part of the justification for that,
where people who are already long the market prior to this ruling are like,
okay, wait, is the ruling now a reason for me to sell? If I was already long prior to the ruling
on the basis of softening trade policy with China and the EU, like if that was your thesis to be
long, well, that's theoretically still happening, right? I don't think this court ruling would
interrupt those negotiations, especially if the appeals court rules in favor of the administration,
then it'll just be back to business as usual. So I think people have to look at like narrative
risk in terms of where they were prior to the narrative inflection, right? Like every big story
is a narrative inflection. That's how you should treat it. And what you should think about when
you think about the base case or what's priced in is where the narrative was prior to that inflection point.
So prior to that new piece of information, where were the markets and what was the base case and what was the bull case and what was the bear case?
And I think if you rewind the clock 24 hours to before that announcement from the U.S. Court of International Trade, I think the conclusion you'll come to is the markets were chilling.
You know, we're back above the 200
day. The last few red days we got were pretty modest. The trend was still up. So, you know,
could this be flipped into a narrative of panic by people that are overstating the consequence of it?
I think so. But I don't think conditions have changed much from where they were 24 hours ago.
And what I will say is that the real thing to watch if you do want to make an
assessment that conditions have changed is the macro data, right? Like that's what's really
going to tell us if something's wrong, not the back and forth about tariffs good, tariffs bad,
tariffs up, tariffs down. I mean, that's largely noise. What matters is what the impact is,
right? If you can, if we can assume, like right now, I just heard somebody in the Fed's comments while we were talking.
It was on my feed. I read somebody's comments daily or somebody.
And he said, look, we don't know what the impact of tariffs are going to be.
We're going to have to wait and see where they settle. Like, that's what everyone's thinking.
Right. So. We have to know and we're not going to know yet, we have to know is,
is that causing a real economic impact? Like, is that going to cause enough of an economic impact
to draw us into recession? Just that alone, the idea of, I'm going to wait and see. You know,
I don't know where tariffs are going to settle. So I'm going to delay this purchase order by six months. You multiply that by a million businesses that can have a very real economic impact.
So we have to see if that shows up in the data. If it shows up in the data, then, yeah, we have a problem.
And then you should probably start bracing for impact.
You know, if into the summer, I wouldn't pay attention to confidence either.
I don't think I think the surveys are going to be misleading here in the early stages of this.
So I wouldn't overemphasize.
I also, I found out those consumer confidence surveys are like 3,000 households or something.
Yeah, they're small samples.
They're smaller than the UMichigan data, aren't they?
Yeah, I mean, UMichigan is garbage too.
Yeah, all of this survey expectation data
is largely i mean you just look at the respondent pools it's just largely garbage data just is you
know data with that kind of uh constituency skew is like it's not reliable data you know you can't
have you know 20 of respondents saying inflation is going to be 7% and 20% of respondents saying
inflation is going to be 1% that you throw that data in the garbage in my view. Um, and most
survey data looks like that. If you actually break it down into the constituent data, most
survey data looks like that. And what you see on Twitter is just the headlines. And so you're like,
Oh my God, we missed. And then you go look at the data and you're like, what the hell is this
nonsense? Like, it's just literally garbage data. my my also question is is like we all sit here and watch this stuff and if you ask us what
we think inflation would be in the next year how the fuck do i know so what exactly question is this
no but that's my point that's why it's garbage data like you just you just reiterate i think
you thought you were making a contention to my point, but you actually just.
No, no, I thought it was the same.
Yeah, exactly.
How, how, how are you going to know?
The reality is, is no one fucking knows where inflation is going to be in a year from now. No economist knows.
The best economist at any school you want to go pick, you tell him, hey, predict inflation for the next 12 months, month over month.
He's going to be terribly wrong, as are all of us on the panel.
That's kind of my take, Stock Talk, that even all the data that's coming out right now,
who cares? Any of the data that comes out.
Even PC and some of the more important ones, even the hard data, though, because it could
just look so much different in a month, three months from now.
How much do we really even care about the hard data right now?
Okay, this is what I'd say. The reason the hard data does matter is because, yes, you're
right, there could be these sort of like, early stage narrative impacts where people get worried.
And so they stop spending, or they stop buying or investing or whatever out of just pure fear,
not out of like operational inability
to do so. So yeah, that's a good point. That's well taken. That could be maybe an intra-quarter
impact, right? But the issue is, is in a vacuum, deteriorating confidence is unimportant. But when
you pair deteriorating confidence with deteriorating data that almost always leads to recession.
So that's why it's important. In synchronization with, or in sync with, God, wow, I couldn't even
think of the short term there. In sync with confidence data, hard economic data can be a warning flag.
So that's what I would say.
If we see a decreasing of confidence in the summer, which may happen anyway, and that's
paired with higher unemployment, lower spending, that's a bad sign. And that's probably an indicator of an
impending recession. You know, alternatively, this whole thing ends up a lot softer than expected,
and the economy brunts off yet another year of recession, and the markets rip higher. That is
a very possible scenario as well. But it's part of why I'm playing this market so close to the
chest. I'm not afraid to flip my bias. In February, when we took out many key levels on individual
stocks, I became very negative on a lot of individual stocks. And it wasn't until I didn't
start getting bullish at the bottom. No, I got bullish five, six, seven, eight percent off the bottom. One stocks had recovered and rebuilt. That's just the way I operate. I'm not going to
catch the lows. I'm not going to sell the top, but I am going to catch the meat in the middle.
And that's where the money is made. The money is not made in being the cool guy that's like,
look, I called the top tick on the S&P 500. Like, you know, follow me. Or look, I called the bottom tick.
You know, how good am I?
No, the money is made by catching the meat of the move, buying good stocks at good prices
where you can get real high performance returns over short periods of time.
That's where the real performance is made.
That's where the money is made.
So like if we give up the 200-day moving average and combined with that, the data is worsening, I will get bearish again.
If we don't, I'll keep dancing with music.
Like, it's, again, I always say this.
My opinion always comes to this.
It is not rocket science.
You have a simple system that you can follow, you know, that dictates your market bias.
Whenever somebody, like, I get this question a lot from our members,
are you bullish? Are you bearish? Do you think we could go lower? Do you think we could go higher?
And every time I get that question, I tell people, you should have a set of rules under which you are
bullish on the market in terms of your bias. And you should have a set of rules in which you are
bearish on the market. When those rules are validated in either direction, you follow them.
That's what I do. Like when we're trading under the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500,
I am not aggressive in the markets. And 95% of the time we're trading under the 200-day moving
average, I'm also hedged with size. When we're trading above the 200-day moving average,
I'm usually employing margin. I'm usually long a lot of names. I usually have a lot of short-term
options exposure on the table. Like those are the differences in how I position based on a very
simple rule set. I don't need to go ask my friend, hey man, like I'm worried about the market. Are
you bullish or are you bearish? Are you selling your stocks? Like, you know, and act like a crack
head all the time, which is what 90% of you are doing, especially new
traders.
I know you guys are doing that because I have thousands of new traders in our community
and I get those sort of questions all the time.
Panic questions.
Every time a stock is red, what's going to happen?
Are you selling?
Is this the top?
Is the rally over?
What am I going to do?
Oh, I bought this stock.
I'm up a lot on it.
I don't want to sell it.
Just have a simple set of rules. When the rules are broken, you
follow them. When the rules are confirmed, you follow them in the other direction. That's it.
It doesn't have to be the 200 day moving average. That's my general barometer for risk. Cause it's
simple. It's easy. Everyone knows where it is. Institutions look at it. Retail traders look at it. That's why I like it.
Okay.
But your risk parameter or your risk barometer can be, I don't know, some people like RSI or MACD crossovers or whatever the hell works for you.
I don't know.
Okay.
I'm not going to tell you how to, how to recharge.
Fear and greed index.
Huh?
Fear and greed index getting up. Yeah, fear and greed index. If you're Evan, huh fear and green index getting up yeah fear and green index
if you're Evan the fear and green index uh whatever works for you and has worked for you
and helps you make money keep doing that now let's tell people if something's making you money
please do not stop doing it no matter what anyone says okay but if you don't know what you're doing
stop insider training time like most of you don't know what you're doing,
stop insider training time,
like most of you.
And I know a lot of you just feel lost in volatile markets like this.
If you're one of those people,
please,
please,
please.
I put my hands together and I beg you develop a simple rule for how you manage your money,
you know,
and,
and then stick to those rules.
You know,
it's your money.
I don't know.
Some people,
some of you have gamified investing so much that people forget that they're trading with real money.
And yeah, just care about it.
Just care about it.
Care about when you buy a stock.
Care about how much risk you're taking.
Care about if you buy options that you're not putting too much money in them so that if they go to zero, you lose all your capital.
them so that if they go to zero, you lose all your capital.
You know, care about not buying stuff that's, you know, call options that are 150% out of
the money because you want a lottery ticket.
Like, these are simple little things that everyone can do, and it'll just instantly
improve your performance.
You know, don't have to be a rocket scientist, as I always say.
as i always say monitor go for it yeah so um look i i've been one of the loudest voices on spaces
Monitive, go for it.
against survey data i think it's it's a carryover from the past we have tools and we have data that's
far far far superior to anything the need need for surveys, I think, has outmitted utility.
Sorry to interrupt you, Monativ.
Should we start a StocksOnSpaces survey?
I genuinely think we could do a better job.
Continue, Monativ.
Don't worry.
Thanks to Ponder.
We're going to do a shitty job.
Might as well have our name on it and do a little better.
So again, right?
So the value of surveys is very limited i i don't
say it's zero i say it's very limited i'm carefully choosing that word here so remember you know
every company's guidance is based on some level of survey that's surveying internal data, surveying receipts, surveying consumers, surveying preferences, surveying their suppliers, and looking at economic data that's relevant to their industry. We look at the guidance of consumer staples and consumer discretionary.
That is a far more reliable, far larger sample size.
And on top of all that, just the quality of data is so very high with those things because now you're playing with real money, not a phone call where you're asking somebody's opinion.
not a phone call where you're asking somebody's opinion. These are decisions that the companies
have to make, which could cost them tens or hundreds of billions of dollars in some cases.
So that is really where you need to look at. So what I would say is, if there is a normal 5-10% plus or minus miss on sentiment data,
it's meaningless because that could be
you caught a few people on a bad day
or you missed a few regulars,
you changed your sample size.
It could be hundreds of different things
that are irrelevant to the actual question being asked.
But if you get something that's way outlier,
don't react based on that data.
Go back and see where there is confirmation to that data.
For me, confirmation would be things like same-store sales,
if it's consumer data.
Look at same-store sales.
Has it been really going off the rails completely?
Look at, because these are far closer to real-time data. Look at companies' guidance. Is anybody
in the sector pre-announcing? Is anybody taking their guidance off? Is there something else
happening? Are there management changes? Is there management selling stock you know a lot of those things will give you far
richer data set than a survey does if your person that's influenced by survey it's probably a trade
for a few minutes right after and it has outlived its utility at the end of those few you know 10
15 30 minutes it's a noise for most part not real data data. But it many times underlies some real problem somewhere else,
which is why I ignore it as long as it's within the range.
But if it's far outside the range they've been releasing versus the hard data,
I mean, we've seen time and time again that the soft data is coming out pretty bad as far as
consumer sentiment, but it's just not showing up in the hard data. I think you guys were mentioning
that too as well. I mean, if that continues to happen, then you're pretty much going
to start phasing out the recession probabilities in the economy. I mean, if the market's looking
at the recession probabilities or possible consumer slowdown or possible unemployment
expansion and so on, then if that's what they're expecting and that's not happening,
then the market's just going to start rallying off more certainty. Because if you're introducing
more uncertainty in the market, it's certainly to bring the market down. But if you're not
introducing any more uncertainty in the market and you're introducing more certainty, I'm not
going to say whether that's good or bad, but usually if it's not as bad as expected, that's
something the market's going to like. I think the same can actually be said for earnings as well.
You know, even though earnings are not going to be as expansive as people expected last year, if they're expecting it next quarter today and it's not as bad as expected, then that would be considered a win in the market's opinion.
I mean, I'm not going to say the market's going to go based off of that.
What I'm saying is that if you're not introducing more uncertainty or as much an uncertainty as last month it'll be
very hard to see newer lows in the market so m i i don't disagree with you completely but
there is a lot of data that's coming in part of which is is uh hard data part of which is
questionable there's also a lot of worried guidance that companies are basing on hard data.
That is worrisome.
To your point, there is not enough of that
to confirm what the soft data is showing yet.
But it is certainly worth careful watch
because hard data is not as good as it was a few months ago.
Yeah, this is, I mean, without overthinking it,
my thought process around, you know,
a lot of these data prints coming out is just,
maybe you get a little reaction to it,
but I just don't think it changes anything.
I mean, obviously the trend of the data is more important, I think, than each individual print. I think we can all agree on that, but I just don't
see where any data that we've got, even for the month of April, you know, going into the month of
May's data that'll be coming out, I just don't know that the market really is going to put a
whole lot of weight into it right now. I mean, typically, yes, the data is the data and the facts are the facts, right?
But when you have so much question marks still left going forward, I mean, we have no idea where this is going at this point around the tariffs.
And these companies, you know, these companies, they're trying to guide, but they're just guiding with the best, to your point, the best data possible that they have.
They're saying, okay, based on this and this, X, Y is going to be Z if this stays the same.
But they're all variables right now.
I don't think there's much constants to even go off of. and a follow-up question for stock talk and i just got sidetracked
the different thought altogether
uh stock talk what was i gonna ask you the um
i don't know you're around this is a good question i know well you should know i know What was I going to ask you?
I don't know what you're going to ask me.
This is a good question. I know.
You should know.
I know.
I'm trying to read my mind right now.
I mean, it was around this tariff stuff.
I mean, oh, okay, okay, I got it.
So based on this injunction, and I know the White House is coming out and they're spinning their narrative how they want to.
Country, they're still calling us and we still have tree deals.
If you are Japan, if you're the EU, are you not taking a step back a little bit going, wait a second?
Or do you feel like, or maybe you rush in and say, well, maybe have a little bit leverage here.
I don't know.
And if you're sitting over in London right now, are you saying, man, did we screw up?
Like, did we agree to something way too early?
I think.
What does this do to negotiations?
I mean, could they pause them?
Yeah, I guess.
I mean, like, I guess to a degree this takes away leverage from the White House.
Because, you know, if a court can take away their ability to impose tariffs, then
these other countries don't have as much pressure on them to get a deal done immediately. But
I don't think the White House is going to communicate it that way to these other countries.
Like if you look at the UK's comments this morning, they basically said like,
this is up to the United States to figure out domestically.
We're going to continue our conversations with them on the trade deal.
So it seemed like the UK, at least publicly, I mean, obviously, maybe privately from a negotiation standpoint, they're thinking about it differently.
But at least publicly, that seems like they're reaffirming support for negotiations.
And India came out today as well, even after that ruling yesterday and said that they are
anxious to get the deal done with the United States also. So
the EU and China are really what matter. I think India matters too, just because it's a big potential partner.
And outside of those three countries, nothing else matters. So we'll really have to see where
those three go. But I don't think any of them are going to step away from the table. In fact,
even when you look at China's comments, there were some comments a foreign minister made this
morning. I was reading a bunch of Chinese news at like 3 a.m., but there was a comment the foreign minister made this morning, and he was like way softer than he was.
I've read all of his statements like this year, and he was way softer in his statement today, he was like, yeah, we have restrictions on rare earth metals because
there are certain industries where you need to have it, you know, like just the, like the United
States has it with chips. It was almost like he was making like a concession that there are certain
strategic industries where they both have pain points and it's just part of the game for them to use them like he was defending the
chinese rare earth uh controls so i thought that was interesting it was sort of like a
a little bit of a different tone to where he was acknowledging that yeah maybe the u.s is going to
play tough with us in a couple of industries we'll play tough with them back in a couple of
industries as long as we both understand that net net we both still need to trade you know even if the u.s is going to restrict chips and
china is going to restrict rare earths whatever you want to go tit for tat on that stuff that's
fine as long as the balance of trade uh remains fluid that's the main concern right because that
just halts the global economy and trump was talking about that today or yesterday too when the reporter called him taco
he said that in his response as well he said you know the 145 tariffs on china when they were in
place nothing was going through like trade had halted and you know several other sources reported that well before
like during the actual implementation of those tariffs but you know and he said oh somebody
brought me the paper and i asked how high are they now and they said 145 and he's like oh that's high
you know so i think even trump is acknowledging that like business can't be done at those levels
and i think part of the reason the chinese came to the table is because they acknowledge that as well. Like as much as the U S and China are opposed,
we still need to do business with each other. We can protect whatever industries we think we have
the strategic ability to protect. And outside of that, we got to keep doing business until
one or both of us is independent enough to wean off the other. And right now,
neither nation has the infrastructure to wean off the other. We need more manufacturing
infrastructure. We need more skilled manufacturing labor. We need more raw materials and not in terms
of overall raw materials, but very specific raw materials like rare earth minerals that we need.
And China needs a consumption partner that can equal us, which right now, as of today, is no one.
And so both of us are in a position where we're not ready to decouple just yet.
It's pretty clear both parties want to decouple
in terms of where we align politically and culturally.
Like we're pretty much at odds on everything.
China spies on us every day.
We spy on them.
We both conduct espionage.
China steals our IP.
Like this is not a friendly relationship.
And so, yeah, the decoupling will probably happen.
It's just, it's going to have to happen more gradually.
And I think both sides have acknowledged that.
And I think that's really been the conclusion they came to
after these three, four months of tariff back and forth.
And I think that's why we've gotten to a softer landing point. So do I think that they're going
to leverage this court situation, long story short, against a trade deal? No. Because I think
as much as the United States and Trump want to get a trade deal done for optics purposes, these nations want to get one done for economic purposes.
The European Union needs us.
China needs us.
India will need us when they have the infrastructure and the manufacturing ability that China had had 10 years ago.
Once India is there, they will need us to buy their shit.
And so, yeah, they want to get deals done,
court ruling or not.
So, yeah, I don't think it'll interrupt negotiations.
That was a long-winded way of saying that.
Well, I think it has to delay them a little.
I mean, how can you ongoing when you don't even know if
they're gonna be a thing also yeah you don't even know if they're legal you can't back away as well
right because if you if you're kind of putting that signal taking a victory lap and then you
know we go the other way again god I imagine there's a grudge gonna be held yeah that's the
other thing if they do start playing hardball if they start playing hardball now i mean do they start like plastering against each other does the does the eu say well hey you
know i know you've got this legal challenge going on over there but let's continue our talks and
maybe try to get a more favorable deal than maybe china or something like that i mean they could
almost hit against each other i don't know evan before i was going to ask you something but uh
that tweet up in the nest that you just pinned i don't know if you want to mention that
real fast yeah we don't talk too much we talked a bunch about starfighters on here i'm sure you
guys have all heard of it we're working with them it's a company they're trying to enter into the
small launch satellite market they have a private fleet of fighter jets uh that have the ability to
go mach 2 which i did look up is like
1500 miles per hour for anyone doesn't know with rocket launches you're really trying to get up to
speed to get out of orbit and you know they're betting that this is a cheaper way to go in and
do it with more agility whatever uh we've talked about them a bunch i would just say i actually put
a little bit of money into it this week and i want to know as we were talking about if any of
you guys did as well um so i'd love to know if you guys comment below that tweet, if any of you guys join me.
Just so we can talk a little bit about it in the future.
We'll see.
But yeah, I put a little money in this week.
What was the question, though?
Well, first off, you know what doesn't just go up and down like crazy like this market does on every headline?
Starfighters.
Private investments.
Yeah, no, that's fair.
I will say, net net,
I'd rather invest in the liquidity
of the public markets.
But yeah, that is fair.
You've also seen all these
Rocket Lab headlines
and where that stock is at.
It's interesting.
But no, it's definitely different.
Hopefully their plan is to go public
later this year,
so you should be able to get the liquidity.
Evan, I was excited.
Do you have any take around any of this, by the way?
What's your perspective as somebody that works in the news and has to deal with this?
But when it comes to just one thing after another, back and forth,
from the investor side of things are
is it changing anything that you're doing right now are you still just dcaing or what is what's
your uh i've been down with the markets closer to all-time highs but i don't see how this is a net
negative um yeah maybe the market needed to pull back but when i look at what what's changed over
the last 24 hours it's you, are we going closer to no tariffs
than we're in the environment that we were before?
So I guess we're just back to the arguments
from before all of this.
I don't know.
Or the kind of worst case scenario
is the like 10% tariff.
So I mean, it's difficult here at all time highs.
Maybe we need a natural pullback,
but I don't see,
I still feel like stuff is bullish.
Yeah. You start getting worried when we get another 200 day, like,
just keep it, keep it simple. You know, last week we had,
last week we had a little modest tug below the nine EMA, right.
And we found support right at the 200 day and we rallied right back
above it. So it's like the 200 day, we confirmed support on the first test of it. You know,
maybe we come back down. That's where are we right now? 590 as of the close today, 200 days at 574.
5.74 that would be a
2.7% drop oh my god you know terrifying low of the day was the nine daily ema
there you go so you defended it intraday too i didn't even know that i didn't even notice that
today the bottom of the wick was exactly on that spot.
I had it marked this morning.
Okay.
So markets are confirming support.
That's what that tells you.
For the people out there that don't know how to recharge, I can tell you something.
When I started trading, I started trading when I was 18.
So I was literally a kid.
And I first looked at the first book of TA, the first few books I ever read,
I just didn't know what the hell was going on. I had friends that recommended me books. I had
one of my dad's friends who was a money manager for 25 years. He was one of the first guys that
told me about trading and was like, oh, you should read these books. I had no clue what I was doing.
By the time I was 21, I had no better clue what I was doing. I had just written a bunch of stuff and, you know, tried to overcomplicate trading.
I was trading with 20 indicators on my screen, you know, thinking that the more stuff I had
on my chart, the better I'd be at reading price and the more edge I'd have.
You know, today it's funny.
You would have think I went backwards.
Today I just have on my chart,
nothing but volume and moving averages. And like, you know, I have members ask me about a stock
and I'll just pull it up. And within a second, I will tell them if it's potentially interesting
or not. I don't even need to know anything about the company. I'll take a glance at the chart and
be like, yeah, okay, this is interesting. What interesting what's the story and i mean that comes with experience i'm not saying it should be immediately instinctual
like that but reading price and volume and areas of support is not a complicated thing
it is presented as a complicated thing it is is not a complicated thing. Having a basic ability to recharge is so, will help you so much.
I cannot emphasize it enough.
Will help you so much in terms of your entries and exits.
And everyone says the hardest thing in the market is timing.
The thing that helps a lot with it is having a basic understanding of how to read price.
Just a basic understanding of how to read price. Just a basic understanding. You don't need to be Anna Kooling or, uh, any of these famous technical
analysts to, to do that. Um, you just need to like, look at price and see what the price is
telling you. You know, when, when, when a stock bounces off an area, what that's telling you is
that there are bidders there. When a stock gets rejected off an area, what that's telling you is that there are bidders there. When a stock gets rejected off an area, what it's telling you is there are sellers there. Once you start
identifying those areas of bid support and identifying those areas of sell shelves, then you
quickly understand why price is working, why it's working, what the price is telling you.
When you have a catalyst and price comes up into resistance and gets rejected, that's a good sign. That's not a good catalyst, right? Like you could
know nothing about reading catalysts and the price would tell you that, you know, or when you get
really good news on a stock and the stock tanks, that's the price telling you that it's baked in.
stock and the stock tanks. That's the price telling you that it's baked in. You know,
these are, this is like, like, it sounds like, uh, you know, some people like to call TA like
astrology for men or whatever. I don't know what people like, but it's not. Okay. Because
millions of people are looking at it. You can pull up, you can pull up any chart and pull up like the 20 day 100 day
200 day 50 day 20 day any chart okay and you will find a pattern along one of those lines
did you say astrology for men yeah that's what some people call it yeah they're like oh people who say like ta's
bullshit they call it like astrology for men but i mean like i like that one the reality is is yeah
you know critics will say is it's all backward looking it it is right like even moving averages
are backward looking but that's not the point the point is is that other people are looking at it. That's the point.
Why does price bounce so hard off a 200-day
on hundreds of individual stocks and on major indexes?
Because people are looking at it.
They're like, oh, you know what?
I'll buy when it gets to the 200-day.
Or I'll sell once this stock gets too high up off its 9 EMA.
Or I'll sell once this stock hits its five-year,
multi-year resistance point.
Or I'll buy when this stock comes down
into its six-year trend line.
These are all things that millions of people say every day,
and they're easy, obvious spots to identify.
And so thinking that it's useless like i talked to so many fundamental guys who like again some of these guys are money managers some
of these guys are traders with decades of experience and they just refuse they're like
oh charts bullshit who cares the fuck about a chart i've never needed a chart it it to me it's intellectually lazy frankly like if for
people who have been in the markets for 20 years and haven't learned how to read a chart like i
honestly get shocked because it's so helpful it is so incredibly helpful so if you're one of those
people who's just like putting it off and you're like you know what you
can literally learn how to basically read a chart in a weekend you learn the basics of price reading
price in a weekend the basics you know the reading basics of reading support and resistance
in a weekend you know and does he have no excuse especially if you're somebody who's managing millions of dollars
or a portfolio of hundreds of thousands of dollars,
or even if you're not managing a big portfolio,
but you're active six hours a day in the market,
listening to spaces, scrolling your Twitter feed,
scrolling your portfolio.
If you're spending that much time and you don't know how to read a chart,
you're just giving up money.
You're leaving money on the table.
Your entries will be better.
They'll be cleaner.
They'll be crisper.
You'll have better cushions on your positions early on into holding them, which helps a ton psychologically with trading.
You'll have better sales.
You'll learn how to sell into resistance and not have to take 5%, 6%, 7% haircuts on your positions
before you get out of them.
These are the basic things that you can do.
So don't put it off if you're one of those people
that doesn't know how to read a chart.
Sam, what's up?
We do have a hard cutoff right here.
Yeah, I think we do appreciate everyone.
Sorry about that, Sam.
Make sure you're following all the speakers. We got the hard cutoff here. And a lot more everyone. Sorry about that, Sam. Make sure you follow all the speakers.
We got the hard cutoff here.
A lot more great content coming from that Wolf Account
VC show, but if you enjoy this type
of live free content every single Monday through Thursday
at 3 to 5 p.m. Eastern at least,
make sure you're following the host of Spaces.
Appreciate Stock Talk for helping us co-host this one.
And we will catch you all next week.
But yeah, we appreciate
you all. Fantastic conversations as always.
Follow the speakers.
Check that tweet pinned up in the comments above.
Goodbye. Thank you.
