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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Sept. 29, 2025 Duration: 1:59:33Space Recording
Short Summary
Rocket Lab secures a major partnership with Synspective for 21 dedicated satellite launches, while Energy Fuels raises $550 million to expand its rare earth operations, signaling strong growth potential in the space and energy sectors.
Full Transcription
Thank you. We got the quick mute unmute.
I know that's what happens.
I hope you guys are all doing well.
Another interesting day in the stock market.
We're back here on Stockstone Spaces. well that's rough
Evan just jumps in and just gets rugged
immediately let me get him back up here
can you guys hear me?
Yeah, we got you.
It's just, it's Evan, it's that co-host thing.
It just seems to happen.
Yeah, everything got ruined when I tried to take co-host.
We got Scott, though.
Is that what happened?
I wasn't finding it.
It wasn't showing up today.
We're good, we're good.
How are we doing?
I hope you guys are all ready and excited for another day of Stocks on Spaces.
How are you doing, Scott? I'm doing great. How are you doing? I hope you guys are all ready and excited for another day of Stocks on Spaces. How are you doing, Scott?
I'm doing great.
How are you doing?
I enjoy having you on these Mondays.
It's been quite a crazy time in my life, but I'm excited to hang out and look at some of
these stocks going on in the market.
I have some questions.
I have some thoughts.
There's some big stories that are going on.
There's a Sydney Sweeney headline, a stock that's going off of it, all types of stuff.
But what's going on in your world?
What stocks are standing out right now?
What's going on in Red Dog World?
First of all, what's the matter with your world?
What's so crazy and hectic?
Big change.
I would say crazy and hectic
might not be the worst things to do,
but big change.
Hopefully for the good.
I think for the good. Change is good sometimes. Change is good sometimes. If you want change, what do you have to things to do, but big change. Hopefully for the good. All right.
Change is good sometimes.
Change is good sometimes.
If you want change, what do you have to do?
You have to make change.
Maybe I'm someone who change can be difficult for sometimes.
I get it.
All right.
You do it for a reason, right?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Deep breaths.
Usually change is good.
It just takes a little bit of time to settle in.
And if you're making a change, it doesn't happen overnight. So let it come.
But anyway, let's go back to the stock market here. So here we are on this Monday.
You know, it's definitely very interesting. You know, last week, I think on Tuesday,
we kind of felt as if the market was a little vulnerable.
The S&P, the spies, the queues, everything worked to the 21-day on Thursday morning.
In order to make money short, you really had to be perfect from Wednesday into Thursday,
and then we put a bottom tail in at the 21-day.
And then there was, what, a little bit of a battle on Friday around the 8-day,
and then market closed, you know, decent.
I don't think many people, including me, were expecting, you know, 30 plus handles to the upside today.
Like, why does the market have to do that?
You know, but again, it kind of made it easier if you did cover some shorts into, you know, into support and put on some a little bit of risk, you know, into risk into the dip on Thursday or Friday. It almost
made you have to sell this morning some stuff because of the size of the range from Thursday
morning up into the open. So I know for me, I always trim when a gap is in my favor. I always
take some off and then I revisit to figure out what the complexion of the day is.
So I did take a bunch of things off into the up open, even if I thought they would go higher,
because that's what I do. And now here we are, a little bit off the lows. Some people are saying
the market's bearish. I'm like, why would you say the market's bearish? We just went from Thursday's
low to a big gap open. That's three days.
You know, you could maybe cover it in the hole.
Maybe you put on a few more hedges into the strength.
You could buy a dip, look around, see what's happening,
and try and find the rotation because the rotation is definitely, you know,
complicated at times, but it's been pretty healthy given trade has a lot to do.
You know, so I guess, you know, what are some of the the things i think look it's funny because sometimes these things look their best and then you know then then all of a
sudden they sell the strength and then they need a few days of rest and then the names that have
been a little bit more bean up start to rebuild and start to look better setup wise so you know
if you wanted my opinion on the mag 7 names um you7 names, my biggest position coming in today was Tesla.
And I did trade it through 445, I'm sure like most technical traders did.
It hit 450.
I did trim some and I'm still in some even today.
Could develop into a little bit of a topping tail.
I don't think it's the end of the world.
It's like a short-term little thing.
So I know everyone has different time frames here.
I am smaller in Tesla, but I still think it's acting best.
And I know the delivery is on Thursday.
So you have to just be careful with how you approach it if you do get paid for a living.
Because you have September coming close to an end.
You have the first quarter almost coming close.
I know I get paid per quarter, not per month.
So I just want to make sure I don't get stuck in a leg sweep somewhere just because.
So I'm trying to make sure.
But I just want to do the right trades at the right time because usually they add up.
So anyway, we're going to get not the greatest looking candle in in Tesla today but it's fine
um as far as other names I kind of I still think that Microsoft is getting better it's kind of
rebuilding here um I would suggest which is what I did is if you want to go out like two weeks take
like the 520 calls just in case the market wants to hang in just in case it wants to take out this
inside range lately if you if you
bought microsoft you know while it was up you didn't get paid um as far as apple apple's been
great had a really huge move it's trying to prove it could hold the eight they prove it called 251
so then maybe it could prove it could take out 257 to see the all-time high so i'm kind of watching
that for this week to see if it can do it you You know, it's down a little bit today. It's not a big deal.
As far as, like, you know, the semis, NVIDIA, to me, is getting a little bit annoying.
You know, it was constructive after last week.
It just wasn't ready to get above 184.50.
And then this morning it looked real strong, went to 183.5, 184 pretty fast.
And then it just took the, you know, just decided to take
the rest of the afternoon off and bleed. I do think there's a good setup here. It's just a
matter of time for when this thing's going to take out that 184.50. And when it does and closes above
it, you'll probably see 190, 192.50 so fast. So if you don't want to miss that and you don't want
to be in too much size just in case it doesn't happen, you know, I started going out and buying the 187.5 calls just to have a little bit more
exposure so I'm not sitting in a lot of the shares just in case, you know, there is some news that
they could sell the Blackwell, a cheaper version in China, where something happens, you know,
in the newsy front. I want to make sure that, you know, when that trade happens, I have a decent
amount of exposure there. I'm not really looking at many other
semis for now. Intel,
we had really good trades in. Now
it just needs a little bit of time. We had two
really good trades in Intel. Intel, first
time in the 20th. I never thought...
I don't know if I talked
about the bend the knee trade on here with you.
Intel was at 20, and I was
like, all right, we're going to 25. Good
stuff there. I never thought Intel was going to get up to $35. I don't know if I ever thought I was going to see it again. Maybe it was Intel was at 20 and I was like, all right, we're going to 25. Good stuff there.
I never thought Intel was going to get up to $35.
I don't know if I ever thought I was going to see it again.
Maybe it was one of those people who thought Intel was going to be on the slow decline.
And maybe it still is.
Maybe this is a road bump in that. But yeah, quite the move on Intel.
Well, the beauty of the market is if you do the right trade, you can be pleasantly surprised.
And like that chart that was building when it was in the 25 area going sideways with a lower channel,
I was along options, not thinking we were going to get a move to 32, 33.
But if you're in the right trade, you could be rewarded.
And if you followed the action between Trump getting involved and then you knew that Trump was with Jen Singh and this and that,
and all of a sudden it was almost like you could have been a detective that something was going to
happen soon. And then boom, the news came out and it went to 32 and change. And then after that,
on the pull-in, you could use your, you know, your chart technical skills where it held the 28 area,
held a big portion of the gap and then added it back. That was my second trade, which was bigger
than the first because, you know, you had some more price discovery and then um i came in today small and now i'm
watching it then i'm going to try and figure out if i want to roll up options or just say hey i
just rode you know intel from 25 to 35 plus who would have thunk it like you just said you know
in your wildest dreams you wouldn't have thought intel could have a move like that but some of
these names that base for years could do that.
Look at what happened with Oracle.
Cisco has been decent.
A lot of the old school names that have a ton of cash, really no debt and, you know,
dividends, like all of a sudden they get a little excitement behind them and a good base
and you could get a move.
And I don't think the move in Intel is over.
You think that, you know, that NVIDIA trump uh both took what five billion dollar stakes whatever they did just because they feel nice for
them or are they going to all of a sudden start getting you know some some big uh deals that can
actually create a decent amount of revenue so um i i think it's something that that went from the
d list to the a plus list and now it's like on the A minus list as it tries to rebuild a little bit. Um, what else? I want to, I want to ask people on that one. Where does, where does Intel
kind of rate on people's lists right now, uh, as something they're watching or not? Like,
I think the statement you're saying there about, um, you know, Trump and Jensen, they wouldn't
take a stake in this to lose money, but I also don't know if they can get preferential treatment and stuff like that.
Maybe Intel gets a good bit more revenue, but maybe they don't never turn around that bottom line.
I don't know.
I still think Intel has some...
I don't know.
I wouldn't put this on no A-list.
I just think that it's a bad company.
And I've been saying this for many years now and
they don't even make they don't even make any of their current like five-year chips they send them
all the time on semi and if they want to do something they don't have the right makeup or
the right talent there to do it i'm not sure that they can turn this around in terms of making chips
for others and doing it here in this country i still think that is a a pipe dream for them and
you know these small investments they're getting by other companies,
they're just doing to appease the powers that be in the White House.
I'm not convinced that's an infel to turn around, but that's a personal opinion.
I just think there's just too much debt, too much bad people in there,
and they just can't get it right.
All right.
Well, first of all, just, you know, I put was on the,
like kind of the A list when you, when you had the range from like August 14th, all the way
going across, that was like, you know, buy some options. And then when it turned back up
technically on September 24th and held that gap area, then at least it was calculated. And now
it's just, it's just a a sequence like does the sequence continue or does
all of a sudden everyone lose interest because you know it was um it was a masquerade you know
like i don't know exactly from the fundamental story of intel what i know is that i keep looking
for different types of setups and i try not to read too much into it because you know it always
contradicts whatever could happen um so for me like i know like remember what the nuclear name
was like you know i remember when Oklo was 50-50
and I was trading it and guys like,
that's not making money for two years.
It's pre-revenue.
What's the matter with you?
And I kind of got away from it because I was like,
all right, you know, you guys are the fundamental guys.
I'm just a technician that likes to buy things
that are rotting the eighth day
that has a good narrative behind it
and could be explosive.
But so, but again, you know, Intel, right now there's a little halo, a little bit of one, just a little,
and we'll see how long it stays.
And if it starts to die down and drift and there's no action there, I'm sure traders
will move on.
But right now, I do think there's still some eyeballs on it.
I think right now it's at 34.70.
There's a chance that this thing within the next few months
could see you know 37 to 40 and you could kind of do it in a low risk way but um and if it doesn't
then then it'll just start to drift and be intel over again but um anyway yeah too much time on
intel just but it was a good setup again good setup that setup. That's all it was. And it was a pleasant surprise for those.
Like I had 50 cent calls.
The calls that I bought were for 50 cents and I sold them up to six.
And it wasn't even an earnings play.
But anyway, moving on.
Let's talk some China names.
You know, China was up again.
That sector, now everyone's saying it's investable now.
When they came out and said it was uninvestable,
when there was a lot of great opportunities,
Baba still looks pretty good.
What I've been doing is I've been really,
even though it's a lagging, I feel kind of embarrassed about it.
Every time JD's pulled in in the last two weeks,
I keep buying calls, and every time it goes up like it does today,
I keep selling it.
But net, net, net, I've been long pretty much from like from like 30 50 and i still think it can go to 38 to 40 as long as china
continues to trade the way it's trading um you know body still looks pretty good um yeah right
now the market's fading as we're talking it's 3 15 and the spies are going to go red that's cute
um the way the way I've been
doing it is into like a day like today, I short premium. So I, I sold some 665s, I sold some 664s
and it's been easier to do that than, than to try and make money in puts, you know, lately as,
as a hedge, unless you're perfect, like Wednesday into Thursday. Um, like right now, actually it's
a little busy. My P and L is all over the place as we're actually, it's a little busy.
My P&L is all over the place as we're speaking because things are coming in.
Does somebody else want to talk right now?
I got to look at my platform for a second.
Yeah, I'll tell you.
Oh, go ahead.
Yeah, well, first I want to remind everyone
tomorrow is end of month, end of quarter.
So we're probably going to see some shenanigans
as institutions position themselves for the last part of the year. But I wanted to just jump on
something that Scott had mentioned because he talked about Oklo or Oklo, I never know how to
pronounce it, and made the point about trading it. And there were some fundamental guys that were
saying, hey, this thing doesn't even make money. And I actually put a video out this weekend for my subscribers
about this concept of the danger that you run into if you rely on fundamentals. And I'm not
talking about fundamental analysis like you see from Stock Talk or Monitiv or some of these guys
who are really good at what they do and almost have like a bespoke angle. I'm talking about the
average person out there that's listening to
quote-unquote experts or just looking at PE ratios or all the standard 101 fundamental stuff.
There's two great examples of that right now. So if you look at the pot stocks today,
the pot stocks are flying and all the long-term permabulls in pot are celebrating, right?
If you look at my timeline on Twitter for the last couple of weeks, months, you'll see that we've been involved in the pot stocks, right?
Because technically they were starting to set up.
But for the last five years, they've literally gone straight down while all these people that were supposedly experts in that area were telling you all the fundamental reasons why pot names were going to be great, right?
It was going to be this state was going to legalize it.
This was going to happen.
And yet there was no compelling reason from a technical standpoint to own those names.
When you're a trader, one of the things you can do is you can negate cost opportunity, time opportunity, right? Like you don't have to
be in that name for four and a half years while it just keeps going down. You can wait until you
see some setups that make sense that say maybe the odds are more in my favor for a move to the
upside and then get involved. Another example of that is kava, right? So all I've heard from people for a couple years now is kava,
kava, it's great. The food is the best and they're going to be in the fast, casual,
metatrainian world. Today, kava is trading like hummus causes cancer, right? It is horrible,
right? There is no technical reason that you would want to be in that stock. And so the point I'm trying to make here is
it's okay to be a trader and it's okay to be an investor. I think the problem is when people
confuse what they're doing, right? When they're in a stock really big, really heavy, really short
term for some macro fundamental reason, right? And then the stock moves against them and they can't handle it and they have to sell.
And then that's usually when it corrects.
So it's important to know what game you're playing,
whether you're playing a technical game,
a fundamental game, you can do both by the way.
I do both.
I have a lot of my fundamental retirement accounts,
all that stuff that's managed by people
or I've got long-term accounts
that I just are picking things up strategically. But in my trading account, those stocks that I'm playing,
I know why I'm playing those stocks. I'm playing them for one to three day moves,
maybe a swing trade if the market lets me. And every single time, and I can go, you know,
we all remember our losers. I can go down a list of names. Metro Mile, M-I-L-E, NVTA, NVTA, right?
MBIO. I can go down a list of names that I thought, oh, I listened to the fundamental people.
And most of them went to zero. So I just think it's important that you know what game you're
playing. I think that's a great concept, great thought.
It's exactly true.
Traders could find one- to three-day trades, and that's how you can make a living.
Sometimes you could trail it then for one to three weeks,
but our job is to find the battleground between the Bulls and the Bears
and figure out who's going to win and jump on for what usually could be
a one- to three-day great breakout and then figure out if it's worthy
to stay with. My job I do for a lot of people are they've been accumulating names for months
and years, like you said, with the pot stocks. If I had a dollar for every time one of those
fundamental guys said that cannabis is going to change the world, I'd have a lot of dollars and
I'd probably be out of business because all the false starts and how bad it was. But, you know, the size of these bases now, you know, with maybe a catalyst with Trump and
a bunch of, and then you kind of could see the use. I could see, I could see friends of mine
going from, you know, drinking beer to seltzer with THC, like they're really doing it. You know,
I was at a strong New York this weekend where, you know, I participated, it was in New York,
you know, more of a wellness longevity event. But, you know, there was a, there was an expert actually had a full packed room talking
about microdosing, like, and how it's, how it's great for the brain and how it's so much better
for you than the toxins of alcohol and the synopsis and the mitochondria and all the things
he was saying sounded so smart and everyone was in there. I'm like, holy cow, like some things are
coming together. And then when it comes together with some technicals like a huge day one today on massive volume in a
lot of these things you know what just like intel like right now they've moved up the list again
you know these stocks now that have been on the bottom of the list they might not be fundamentally
you know there but but msos you know had a big gap, traded huge volume. It pulled in earlier this afternoon or midday.
Now you have 456 to be long against.
And who knows, you know, a month ago it went as high as 602.
You know, maybe it goes to nine.
And now it's just another piece of business that you could view as a trade as long as
the volume and the interest stays there versus being a fundamental, you know, hocus pocus thesis
that, you know, the experts in the business have had and they've been pulling their hair out. So
I'm hoping, I'm actually hoping for them, you know, that this is their time, you know, that.
And you can, you can even, you can look at the component names in MSOS. If you even want to get
granular, you can see there's a total change in character, right? These are names that would
normally pop on big news and then they would fade and go red at the end of the day. And
you're seeing names like Cron or names like Cureleaf. I know Tilray is a Canadian pot name,
but you're seeing some of these individual names that are also changing their characteristics. So
there's so many pieces of the puzzle that you can put together from a technical standpoint.
And again, it just saves you not having to wait four years while your money is parked in these
dead stocks while everything else is going to the moon. Exactly. Know who you are and what you're
looking to do. And it's great to have multiple accounts too, to take advantage of everything.
then long-term, short-term, mid-term,
Long-term, short-term, mid-term, just put the time and effort in and it could happen.
just put the time and effort in and it could happen.
By the way, Citron just came out short RGTI.
And technically it actually looks like-
And still short Palantir,
which he's been getting crucified on.
No, listen, I'm not saying they're right all the time.
I'm just saying one of my friends just actually said,
look at the quantum names, they need a little bit my friends just actually said, look at, you know, the quantum names.
They need a little bit more downside.
And I was like looking at 2880.
And someone in my Alfa team just posted that Sichuan came out short on him.
I could, you know, I could see going to 26 and still being fine.
You know, we were playing this thing at 18, you know, a month ago or 20.
But, you know, just bringing it up.
I'm not short at this second.
I don't want to get anyone out.
I'm just saying this is what happens real time.
You know, you look at the technicals, all of a sudden it was weaker.
Citron must have been telling all their friends, and now it's public,
and we'll see, you know, there's a breaking close below 2880.
If so, you'll probably get 26.5 by tomorrow.
I think it's going to be very interesting to see tomorrow
what the institutions dump and what they pick up because, we've had a pretty good year. And I don't like to get into
the mechanics of stuff. But if I'm an institutional investor, if I'm a hedge fund manager, I want to
protect my bonus at the end of the year. I want to run this year strong to the end. So I'll be
interested to see what sectors get picked up what get dropped um by the close tomorrow
don't you guys think that today was a markup day i mean today felt like a classic end of the quarter
let's mark it up let's run into hood again to all-time highs let's run nvidia again today
let's run tesla out of the gate you know they they came after these names micron had a nice day amd
ran names that had been strong most of the quarter.
And they kind of felt like a classic end of the quarter markup day today.
I don't know. That's kind of how I kind of felt about this today.
And I think if we didn't have the looming shutdown tomorrow, we probably we may not have gone red.
You know, we may have held some of those gains.
So you got conflicting, you know, crosswinds here.
Will we shut down? And then what are people going to get themselves positioned into to run it into the last
three months? We also may not be getting the BLS data on Friday
now, apparently. That's interesting.
Yeah.
I'll remind everybody that the last shutdown was the longest one
on record and was under Trump's first administration.
The market did just fine. I think it was 35 days or 39. I don't remember the exact number.
So if the government shuts down, it doesn't really matter. It really doesn't to the market.
It doesn't matter, but there is a little bit of headline risk, I think, that people worry about.
If you're getting paid in September and we're down 50 handles and they shut down, you know, Wednesday in the last day, that would just kind of be a little unfortunate,
even if it bounces back the week after.
It's just a bad time, a bad walking time for some people.
Bad time, but the market really just doesn't care about it at the end of the day.
Yeah.
End of the day, everybody that gets laid off or furloughed,
they're going to get time and a half.
They're all going to get their money.
They're going to sit home and watch Netflix and laugh at the media and then everyone will make their money back.
And, you know, anyone who sold will have to chase and anyone who gets caught short is going to figure out, you know, when's the right time to take it off.
By the way, we're just talking about pot stocks and tiller.
I guess even though it's been a dog for so long, it's at highs of the day day of 55 on all-time high record volume i mean you know we always want to see high volume on a breakout
like i don't think there's a better scenario than what what i'm seeing right here in till ray
yeah i'm telling you infused uh seltzers are a huge thing now it's real mainstream
but even though this is canadian and they that doesn't this company own a lot of the the brands now from Anheuser-Busch they bought it
from them and when that when Bush wasn't supposed to be allowed to do stuff like
so they have a big big portfolio of craft brews and beers I was in Colorado
a few weeks ago and we were in Breckenridge and I stopped into the
Breckenridge brewery and I didn't realize until i was in there for a minute they're owned by tillray so they own a lot of uh they own a brand out here called alpine
which is in san diego county so they're much broader than just uh cannabis for sure definitely
and that ceo knows what you know knows knows how it feels when you get a big squeeze. I remember trading Tilray from $210 to $300,
and then it was back at $150 that day,
for those of you who have been around the block from years ago.
What did you say was that right now?
Anybody remember that Tilray?
So I was a financial advisor at that point,
and I had to talk some people out of buying Tilray at like 200.
I imagine they did like reverse stock splits.
Okay.
But yeah, wow.
What an interesting one.
I'd actually talk people off a cliff that got squeezed at like 240 because couldn't handle it,
and that they would have just taken a walk around the block.
It closed at 155 or something that day.
So it's all about pricing and timing and what you can handle.
Sometimes you short something and you can't stay solvent until you're correct.
So just keep that in mind with any of these things that have crazy short interest.
If you think you can handle it, it's great.
But when you can't, every minute counts.
Yeah, CGC was the weed stock that I lost my money on.
Yeah, that was a good one for a while, too.
I think the guys on Fast Money were saying it can't go down ever,
and it was like $60.
And then it might have went down a few times.
There was a deal with Constellation Brands where something might have happened
with those infused drinks, I think maybe just a couple years too early now we're spending too much time we're an intel and
weed stock space what a good time what a time to be alive that's how bad the market is right now i
guess sometimes sometimes it feels like sometimes it feels like the 90s again people talking about
uh blackberry they're talking about intel uh i mean it's like crazy i'm looking at cisco it's
in a 25-year base.
Can't wait for that to break out.
I think the world too.
To be honest, I have a lot of friends that work there.
They've never been happier.
Two weeks ago, I think they were in Vegas.
They rented out the Tau in Tau Beach for 2,000 employees.
At Cisco?
Yeah, Cisco.
Interesting.
Okay.
Well, remember, Microsoft was in
a 13-year base, right? And then it broke out.
So, we'll see.
Yeah, I remember when 2001
to 2011 would make fun of Microsoft.
They said it's where money went to die.
Meanwhile, it was just a huge, huge
base. So, I think Cisco,
mark my words, within the
next one to three years, could be
a $90 stock also,
if not more, or get some kind of frisky news.
And these stocks are big.
These stocks are pretty large.
We're talking right now like two, $300 billion companies.
I think Cisco is something like that.
I'll tell you, Cisco was such the go-to stock back in the 90s.
My goddaughter was born on December 31st,
1999.
I remember saying to her parents, I said, I'm going to put $1,000 into an account with
Cisco stock and don't worry, her college is paid for, right?
That $1,000 is still, I think it's like $695 right now.
It was hot and it went to sleep for a whole generation.
Yes, that's why pricing and timing matters. So it was hot and it went to sleep for a whole generation.
Yes, that's why pricing and timing matters.
Pricing and timing matters, that's true.
Let's see what else is going here.
By the way, I've spoken to you guys about this name a bunch of times over a month ago when it ignited for me at $15, $16.
Today it's at $22.92 today it's a 22.92.
It's trading well.
It's up 8%.
I still think that this is going to be like 30, 40 bucks by the end of the year.
So it's just poked its head back to the weekly high near 24 to 23.83.
I just rolled up my options.
I had like 15 and $22 options on.
I sold the rest of them into strength.
And now I'm going out like three weeks and I'm buying the 25s just a just the stock to
put out there and no I know you and you logical might have a name or two as well
logically give me one or two names give Scott one or two names you're watching
right now yes Scott by the way that gap trade is not working out.
I'm sure you've seen that.
I actually just looked.
I'm sitting in options.
I think they're 27 cents.
I don't know where I bought them, maybe 40 cents or whatever it was.
I exited the trade because, I mean, look at that candle today.
Just disgusting.
I'd like to see it actually be able to do something before I reenter.
I mean, I'll watch it closer to earnings.
I thought it would run into earnings, but I don't know what they're keeping this thing down.
Anyways, just wanted to touch on that since we talked about it last time, but I exited the trade.
You know, it is what it is.
Lost momentum.
So what?
You know, I've been focused on the bios.
I keep saying that.
I just did a portfolio update.
I added a bunch more exposure today, actually.
I'm sitting at around 155% long.
So I added like 40% exposure today.
I think I have over 100% exposure to different bio names.
Now that said, about like 60% of that is in names that are likely buyout candidates.
And we got another buyout candidate today with MRUS. These buyouts are happening every day and
they're in the billions of dollars of value. So yeah, I just added to another name, Nectar,
NKTR. I've been adding to this one since the 20s. It's at 58, and I'm still adding to it.
They have a trial, but they're going to trial. I think it'll get settled before that, but
they're suing Eli Lilly. All the facts look like it's in the favor of Nectar.
I think that's something that's not really being priced into the stock right now. They have very
limited time before this doesn't go to trial and they risk
a much higher uh payout verdict so i feel like eli lily will probably settle just looking at
the facts they're pretty damning uh which would be probably a few hundred million dollars of
payment to nectar and i think that that is definitely not priced in here um but yeah i
mean the drug itself the data they've shown a few months's, yeah, it's still undervalued on that alone.
And yeah, I'm staying long in the stock.
And yeah, I added today after seeing some more details, some people posted on the Lily situation there.
Yeah, I mean, as I've been saying, I've just been liking a lot of the bios.
a lot of the bios. Let's see what's been going on. The CDTX is my second largest position,
Let's see what's been going on.
up 7% today on 2X volume. This one looks like a clear buyout candidate, probably going to go for
like 130 plus. It's at 97 now. I was buying this thing after it was already up so much. I bought
it at like 65. It's at 97 a couple of weeks later, crazy stuff um but that's kind of what you need to do in this space
is like not price anchor and but kind of understand what's the price something is trading at and
understand the value uh that you're getting for that so you do need to definitely have like that
you know fundamental kind of valuation perspective and the only way to get really confident and build
conviction in these bios is to build either you got to be a phd biologist yourself which i have not um but i have built a network of investors
and identified some people who are really good and so i've been able to kind of over time pick
their brains and understand and learn and after years of doing this uh it's started to really
click um i don't know like I want to talk about specific names,
but there's just so many.
Unicure, I actually added to that position today.
That's the one that they cured.
Huntington's disease, or I don't know if I necessarily call it a cure,
but very much slowing the progression of that disease,
which is an incredible step for humans.
This thing, I bought it at 54 today.
Now it's up 8% on the day, up close to 59.
I mean, I'm just thinking if Donald Trump is,
you know, he's the kind of guy who takes a lot of pride
in what gets done under his administration,
even though Unicure has been at this for like over a decade,
possibly decades, the fact that, you know,
this treatment is on its way to get approval in 26
after their phase three data last week under his administration and under his revamping of the fda
under the hhs you know rfk jr uh you know i i just gotta imagine that he's gonna be trying to take
credit of look what we've done in trump's america or something like that so i feel like it's it's big you know this news of curing honey disease is
very big news um it's a huge leap forward in you know treating these rare diseases so i think that
it can continue to get a lot a lot of uh media coverage and i think we're only just getting
you know some of that now but I think that can
continue to expand um I don't even know what to say man it's just a lot of things look really good
uh we had a couple of biotech failures today uh MLTX being a major one down like 80 90 percent
so obviously when you're playing these binary names before the data a very important thing is
to just be sized appropriately.
Like if you put 2% into that, it's not the end of the world. If you put 20, you just crush your year.
So I never really, if I never head into the data readout at a large position, I'm not a person that
is going to have enough conviction to do something like that and bet the farm. You know, in the case of like Abivax earlier this year,
I had a 1.5% position or something like that.
And that thing like 6x overnight, it was still extremely meaningful for me.
You know, but if it failed, it wouldn't have killed me.
So I think, you know, headed into data readouts,
unless you're some biologist that has an edge into the data readout,
it's a really really tough game and even the smartest people uh hedge themselves with position sizing
for me what i've actually loved from a setup standpoint is to buy these stocks after the data
readout i'll miss the first 300 move which sounds crazy and then I'll buy something and then you know be up 50% in the next like two
weeks so if you look at Unicure Unicure was actually like 25 30 bucks in pre-market unfortunately
I'm on the west coast and woke up too late I bought it at $40 which seems late you know the
stocks at like 13 or 14 pre-data it's up 200% already i buy it at 40 to 59 right now man it's almost 50
move after the data after it got the wrist and we're talking in a week's time it's up 50 percent
um so just you know really incredible work there um you know cdtx same situation i bought it after
the data uh abivax and nectar i actually had some into the data but i actually sized up
after the data and like for example you know nectar ripped into 37 dollars uh right after
they reported data it pulled back to 22 range the 22 range 23 range and it was there for about two
weeks gave you all the opportunity to you know buy more of this thing after the buy dairy risk.
And then the stock's now at $58.
So, I mean, you could double, triple your money even after the data.
And that's kind of the idea I want to drive home is like, those seem to be really big
winners.
Moving on from bios.
Scott, I was wondering if any of those names that he was talking about there, if any of the things were interesting for you.
I was just kind of listening to him go through it.
I wasn't punching him up.
I'm still trying to manage some of my positions from today.
I would just say that hearing him talk about pre-data and all that kind of stuff.
I know what I tell my traders is never take any kind of positions any kind of positions, pre-data or whatever it is.
If anything, just options.
Mostly for buyers, I tell them just take options because you're either going to, you know, hit a home run or you're going to strike out.
And if you strike out, you don't want to blow up your account.
So, you know, make sure risk is premium paid.
So I'd rather see individuals, you know, take options.
And I know some bios don't have options
because they're like $1 or $3, whatever.
So those are like options anyway.
So you have to be size appropriate.
But in most, you know, bios...
Do you ever trade bios yourself?
Sometimes, you know, sometimes.
I like to trade the indices
if I think the sector is going to work out.
I don't know enough about names every now and then.
Some individuals from the alpha team
will bring in some decent names.
We used to have a bunch of guys that really focused on it that, you know,
they would bring it up and make a case for it, and I would do it.
But for me, I really, it's not my sector.
I just, you know, if someone has a real ace set up and they present it to me
and I like it, I just go with it.
You know, but I'd never do it for more than, you know, a Tier 1 type of thing.
I did have a really bad experience with a bio. It was called a Mustang bio. I heard,
we talked about it a little bit earlier where, you know, I had a friend of mine who was, you know,
close to the company and made it like it was going to be cure cancer and do all these things. And
PS, every time it had good news and it had like 20 pieces of good news, it would, it would it would it would just go down and I bought too much of it and I learned a few lessons I haven't
been in it in three four years and I just you know again for me I'd rather be in sectors that
you know that it's not a it's not a kind of like an all or none more like I could stay the sequence
I can massage the position I could you know not know, not be really surprised. Like, I don't even trade Boeing, really, because of that. You know, when it's a battleground, and it's kind of
had news, you could have a door blown off, or something could change that you didn't foresee,
I'd rather just be in different sectors and different stocks that usually that doesn't happen
to. You know, here's the thing, Scott, and that's kind of what I want to say is, like,
You know, here's the thing though, Scott, and that's kind of what I want to say is like,
I've had a couple into the data readouts and whatnot.
But again, like, I would say that like the biggest alpha I've seen so far in terms of
risk adjusted reward has been buying it after the data.
Because it's like, then it's no longer all or nothing.
Then it's like, this is already positive.
And it's almost like, I don't want to say it's a guarantee to make money because uh there was actually a name imrx last week that was up like
50 or 60 percent after hours after reporting their nine months data and then the next day
completely reversed so i'm not going to say it's like a blanket statement 100 hit rate um
but like it's kind of probably it's kind of like you know a company comes out a great earns report, great guidance has a huge gap and you buy versus that gap.
And if it holds above the gap, you could then see another huge move thereafter.
But sometimes the gap is priced and it doesn't hold it.
And it just, it's unfortunate.
Yeah.
I mean, I think definitely like it's, it's not a, it's not something you can, you can't trade these things.
You need to have a fundamental view of like what you're paying.
You know, there needs to be like, Hey, this stock is, you know, um, this
stock should like, for example, neck, there was trading at 22, $23.
Like there was a, this shouldn't have been under $50 basically from all the
estimates I had seen all the comparable, uh,PX same thing it was you know at 50 60 bucks every come
you know comparable buyout in the past was at what would have been equivalent of like 120 or more and
the stocks trading at like you know 50 60. so it just even right now it's sitting at 80. you know
that's still reasonably to expect a 50 upside from here So I think you need to have like that kind of view
to have confidence and conviction,
confidence to take the position and conviction to size it up.
Yeah.
Yeah.
But you also do your homework.
Like, you know, this is your stuff.
This is the way you do it.
So, you know, so I do my homework on technicals.
And I'm unfortunately, because not unfortunately,
but as a chief strategic officer here,
I have to, you know, in an hour 15, give my active take on 40 different names, you know, that I put together early in the morning.
So I'm not doing the deep dives, you know, more like cocktail napkin technician stuff with the feel to the overall macro,
with where the narrative is and what everybody's keying off of.
I put it all together into decisions.
Oh, yeah.
I mean, I totally feel that.
You know, here's another thing is this market looks great.
A couple of thoughts there is like, you know, SPY kind of almost touched flat and bounced
a little bit.
But if you look at the RSP, which is an equal weight S&P, I think it's at the highs of the
day today.
I mean, that looks great.
And I saw that they were selling puts on it last week.
So maybe they still believe this breadth expansion
carries this bull market for its next life higher.
And then if you look at, I just posted something today
about looking at the SPY over the last five years,
the 2021 bear market, 2024 bear market,
up until the tariff tantrum
and then uh now 2025 i mean if you just look at the weekly chart of spy it just climbs up that
nine ema on the weekly and that's very normal so like this trend of you know up and to the right
non-stop like this trending market is very normal if you look at passable markets and you know i
think what you'll notice is like a common theme is like if we start losing the 21 ema on the weekly
that's when you start getting a little bit more defensive because you're not sure if it's a fake
out or if it is like we're actually you know going to break down and this is the end of that
that market and we get some sort of you know correction so i think you know for right now
the market's been looking
healthy. I think trying to predict that it's not going to be healthy is not a really useful or
productive task. It's just more like being paranoid and cautious, but at the same time,
taking full advantage and riding along. One last comment on the bios, man. I mean,
XBI is about to crack a hundred bucks. This thing looks great. And, you know, it's been probably the strongest index lately.
And if you look at the weekly chart of XBI and you look at it on like a 10 plus year range,
basically, whenever the XBI breaks above the 200 SMA sustainably, it's basically a decade
it's basically a decade-long bull market at least that's what happened last time and um you know
long bull market.
At least that's what happened last time.
in the last maybe year in the last november um maybe february this year it basically had fake
breakouts above the 200 sma and it got rejected and broke down but this does feel like it's gonna
stay above the 200 sma there's just way too much fundamental momentum in the sector. So many
buyouts, so much money, like just being moved around. For example, a buyout happens, right?
All of a sudden those stocks move up, you know, whoever Merck or whatever, whoever's buying these
companies, they're basically infusing billions of dollars into the market. They're paying out
those shareholders. Now that's just wealth created in the industry.
And then those investors who are getting paid out for their shares have a ton of
money to reinvest back into the sector.
So there's just a lot of this money going into the sector right now.
And a lot of it's coming straight out of, um, you know, these.
Pharma companies balance sheets.
So it's like the fundamental thing is there. The companies are
bidding up the stocks in the sector. And you just have like this tailwind right now. And
as interest rates come down, I feel like there's going to be more and more money being invested
into the sector because, you know, what are you going to do? You can't sit at T-bills with $10
billion of cash if you're collecting 3% on that. It's just not going to do? You can't sit at T-bills with $10 billion of cash if you're collecting 3% on that.
It's just not going to work. You're basically barely beating inflation.
You've got to go do something with that capital.
And right now, the bioassets are still cheap.
So I think if you're not snatching up these therapeutics companies that are in phase three trials, etc., then your competitors might.
So it's a race to buy as many companies as you can right now. And we're having
a record year of M&A in the biotechs right now, which is great to see. And I mean, look at XBI
today, up 1.3% compared to the other industries. It's just been showing a lot of strength.
Anyways, yeah, just want to end it there on the bios. I know I talk a lot about them, but
they really are starting to wake up and it's great.
Well, congratulations, stay in the course, you know, and now the technicals are all kind of getting in line with a lot of the research and research and fundamental facts that, you know,
everyone puts in. So when they go, they go. And then hopefully, you know, the, the, the best ones
perform the best, you know, and that's that. So, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, thank you.
And it's another thing, like, you know, people are talking about the IWM a lot.
And I look at that and I say, yeah, there are no such things as triple tops.
This thing's probably had 300 bucks just through this breadth expansion, you know, small caps getting involved.
That said, I don't, you know, I think we can all agree that, you know, the alpha is not in buying the indices.
It's not in buying XDA, It's not in buying XPY.
It's not in buying IWM.
It's in finding the winners in the sector.
So I think that's why small caps have still been able to do really well
over the last year or two, even if IWM hasn't gone anywhere.
So it's still always going to be the alpha is in the individual picks.
But still a very, very nice backdrop for a lot of these uh stocks to keep
working from here um so yeah i think uh outside of the bios though i mean there's been a few
tech stocks that look pretty damn good today i mean ethereum bouncing back a little bit uh galaxy
digital looks great today up 11 on the day uh braze software bouncing from the lows now
near the highs of the day um let's see what else evolve technologies i mentioned this one last time
basically at highs of day today uh yeah i mean there's a lot of stuff working so it's a healthy
market last monday that i taught last monday i started to buy, you know, the IBIT calls because I was like, listen, guys, everyone talks about October and they talk.
And during Thanksgiving is when the grandma and the Uber driver says you have to be in Bitcoin.
I'm like, but that's when it's at highs. I'm like, right now, it looked like the Bitcoin was trying to form the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
And I put it out there over the weekend.
Well, actually, no, I put it out there on Thursday, Friday.
So I started buying the IBIT calls, the $67 calls.
I went out to, I think, October 17th and then November 7th just to say, hey, I want to be in the money for this to go for it.
Because if it holds 108, it has free reign to
about 117, you know, so that that's a trade. And then if it gets above 117, then there's really
nothing until the highs of 124. And like, so instead of waiting for October, or, you know,
or Thanksgiving, like, this is the time to get in some. So and then, you know, know today it's up five percent so my entire like i actually sent it out
for my powerplace product on thursday um but i think i was i was wondering if i spoke about it
here on last monday um maybe i don't know if i did hopefully some people bought it because
you know it's a really good trade for me today and i had to take a little bit off just the size
of the move but i do think that today's
you know big day one in in ethereum and and bitcoin is going to create a sequence to take
us through highs you know over the next few weeks anyway that's uh you know well said no i mean i
think that you know look it's a bull market and if that's the case and risk is still on then you
know bitcoin's gonna work and Ethereum is going to work.
I'm still very bullish Ethereum.
I'd like to see a little bit more reclaim of some moving averages.
But you're doing probably a decent job here of, you know, I don't know if I want to say calling the bottom, but you're, you know, you're buying the bottom, I would think.
And because I expect that, you know, we will reclaim these moving averages and head back up to the next leg higher.
I don't think we've seen the tops of, you know, crypto in this cycle.
You know what I mean?
No, no.
I hate to have such conviction, but that 124 is not going to be the high of 2025.
We're going to probably see like 140.
I'm not in the Tom Lee crazy camp.
He likes to make headlines but you know the amount of institutional interest and buying that's happening the net net net buying you know it's you know coming into the time of year
it people were expecting a lot in september and they would say what's the matter with crypto i'm
like what are you talking about september's a month of crypto and it's hanging out you know
acting well i'm like don't you know don't have a fault a fault you know have such crazy expectations
you know and then finally it started to get beat up a little bit and then that was the time that Don't have such crazy expectations.
And then finally, it started to get beat up a little bit.
And then that was the time that I started to buy some for last week. And now I'll continue to just buy dips and measure the sequence and measure the power.
Yeah, man.
I totally get it.
And I kind of want to add more Ethereum, to be honest.
I'm very bullish Ethereum.
So this is the time you should. So, like, enjoy BMNR.
BMNR.
Water's warm.
Tom Lee.
And we made some claims there.
Scott, you're not treasuries.
I just actually, today I just bought some options on SBET.
S-B-E-T.
I like SBET.
It got battered and bruised.
I usually trade BMNR more.
I just screwed up something there, and I just kind of psychologically didn't want to go back to it today. It got battered and bruised. I usually trade BMNR more.
I just screwed up something there, and I just kind of psychologically didn't want to go back to it today.
So I looked at SBT, and I had some really good trades a month or two ago.
So some of the option guys in my floor were saying that the Octobers are lighting up the October 31 20s.
And here we are at 17.
I think that's a good risk-reward that if crypto and ethereum and they start moving in october and get back there like i don't see why this espet
won't be 25 to 30 and you could probably make 5x on these october options that's a great call
i like that i actually have had a uh successful trade onPET this year, a very big trade. But BMNR, I got absolutely cooked on that one.
It's funny how you have footsteps.
Even though the stock doesn't remember it, and I'm sure the sponsorship on BMNR is a lot more.
You have Peter Thiel.
You have Kathy Woods buying that.
You have Tom Lee.
So it's better than this.
But just for today, I just wasn't in the mood to do that one.
I also owned a ton of it at 42 on that last pullback.
And then when things started to get a little nuts where every treasury stock was coming out, being announcements for, you know, link chain treasury stock for sole treasury stock, this and that.
I'm like, you know what?
It's getting a little too crazy.
I'm done.
Well, that's the thing with the treasury stocks is that there's so many of them popping up that the premiums to NAV that they've been trading at start to deteriorate.
So all of a sudden, if two times or three times was what we were pushing, I think a
lot of these are going to re-rate back towards like one times NAV, which is like the Ethereum
that they hold on their balance sheet.
And that's kind of what happened to MicroStrategy.
I mean, Jim Chanos came out and shorted MicroStrategy
and bought Bitcoin and has had like a 25% delta
in his favor.
I remember that day.
I fully remember that day.
That's why I've been buying more ETFs.
I say the same thing.
I'm like, why are you going to try and be so cute
with these stocks when just buy IBIT
or buy a 2X IBIT, buy ETHE or do whatever it is.
You don't need to be in the ones that are going to, when they look their best, they're going to come out with some kind of at-the-money offering or something because they need to raise money to buy them.
Yeah, you're basically making a bet on a bet rather than just the bet itself.
Make the bet.
Go with Dexterian.
Go with Sol.
Because ETFs match them pretty well now.
I own ETHE with calls, and I've held those since July, so I feel pretty good about that.
I've trimmed a good amount, which is why I'd like to size it back up a little bit.
But yeah, I mean, I totally agree with you.
And then you think about that micro strategy trade.
I think everyone thought Jim Chanos was crazy when he said that.
And he's like, okay, dude, good luck.
You're getting blown out of the water.
And that has not happened because they basically, all these other companies
saying they're going to do Bitcoin treasuries have diluted the opportunity and taken away,
you know, the flair of MicroStrategy.
So yeah, it's a tough one.
Why bother?
It's kind of my thought.
And yeah, you could just always, if you want leverage to the asset, just lever the ETFs
through options, you know, like what E ETHA calls, what's the difference?
No, I get it.
There's some premium there,
but then you just could do a call spread.
So if you're not sure on the times,
if you think, hey, maybe it's going to happen mid-October
or no, it's going to happen in November,
then go out and like, I was thinking, I didn't do it.
I was going to buy the $67 calls and then sell the the 72's and instead thank goodness
All I did is buy straight calls because it didn't ignite yet
So I'll wait for it to have a two three day move and then I'll sell
Create a call spread lock it in and then figure out a different trade
Anyway, um, it's 356 I have to get back in my radio um yeah listen end of the quarter don't
do anything stupid hopefully getting paid really well for september this quarter been a lot to do
you know you have to be planned you have to have your routine you have to figure out ways to burn
off bad days not celebrate too much on good days and you know this this you know this career could
happen and investing could create wealth there's so many things that you could do in the stock market.
And everyone talks about all the risks of the stock market, but these spaces that you guys do talk about all the risks of not being in the market, which is a lot more constructive than most networks out there.
So congrats to the spaces and for everyone who contributes and for you guys doing it every day.
You're adding much more value than the three-minute sound bites that i even do on fox business because it doesn't make anyone any money
you know so this is this is the place to be spaces like this with people who are doing it
we appreciate you for being here scott everyone should definitely make sure you are following scott
we appreciate you for hanging out with us and the kind words.
All right, be well.
You should also be checking out all the other speakers too.
A lot of great people contributing to this first hour we have going here.
We have three minutes until the market closed, Les.
Was there anything anyone was itching to say before the market closed?
Any trades you guys want to call out or anything?
No worries.
I did just get a notification around Lyft being up 5%. I know that's kind of became a little bit of a spaces story.
Also, while you were talking there, there was a story from Wire that OpenAI is preparing to launch a social app for its AI-generated videos.
As I was reading the story, this kind of reminded me of the meta announcement that came out that was ridiculed a lot on X
yesterday or two the other day from Alexander Wang that's radio but yeah um
hot name spiking into the clothes here meta was falling is what was kind of
getting their snapchat was to mess so us let's take a look I like Amazon I'll see I want to see how Amazon acts
tomorrow made a turn in the last two trading days so we'll see if it can
catch up with rest of market probably won't till we're up 60% today Apple down 20% really yeah no you hit me with the Apple
down yeah yeah I know crazy right but I guess we're at a dollar 20 there no I
was I was clicking it in I was like do I believe you remember Apple doesn't
innovate Evan remember that you can't make money in them they don't innovate
so struggling to innovate its way to all-time highs right now 254 to 60 we're Remember, Apple doesn't innovate, Evan. Remember, you can't make money in them. They don't innovate.
Struggling to innovate its way to all-time highs right now. $254, $260. We're kind of close.
The problem is my individual stock portfolio is now a little bit skewed and is not a true reflection of the market anymore.
So I need to shift off this one.
I got to say one thing real quick before we close. I'd be curious if Mike feels this too.
I got a lot of people in my streams and in my Discord that are super bearish right now.
They're like, just, the market's going to crash.
This is it.
And I'm like, I don't get it.
Like, do you see that, Mike?
Do you see people?
Oh, Mike's gone, I think.
Yeah.
I see it a lot.
I mean, I definitely do see it a little bit more than normal.
Not too much more than when we're in an extended bull market. But yeah, there was this comment about everyone posting their screenshots,
and people were dunking on them for that.
But then also you dunking on them for them posting their screenshots,
doesn't that kind of negate it out because people are talking about it?
So some interesting stuff going on.
I've definitely seen more people
I guess on both sides being parabolic
about it. Yeah, so we're going to
till rate closed up 61%
all-time volume.
Wow. All right.
The weed
stocks are getting lit.
It gets easier to set all-time volume the lower the price goes. the weed stocks are getting lit. They're, uh,
gets easier to set a new all time volume,
the lower the price goes.
Easier,
easier to set a new all time volume at a dollar share than it is at $3 share.
Just messing around.
It is six times,
six times average volume too,
which is pretty good.
Yeah, no,
it was good volume on the weed stocks today.
I'm just messing with you. Um, those, those had some nice nice moves i actually was thinking of buying some of them pre-market i should have but i was too busy reading other stuff pretty good day
in the market so i'm running 19 positions right now i have 14 green today out of the ones that
are red nothing down more than one and a half%. So pretty balanced day for the book.
I mean, obviously a green day.
I imagine most people were green today.
I don't think that's much of a surprise.
Total return on the year is at 263% now year-to-date, which is beautiful to see.
I don't really think any of the names that I'm in are giving me much of a concern at all based on the price action.
So I continue to just keep my head down and stay focused on those names.
Robinhood obviously had a monster day today.
I'm sure that was one of the market leading stocks today at 12%.
Lyft was up about five.
Genius Sports was up about five.
DPRO, which is my small cap drone play, that was up another four.
That stock's up like 30 30 since our entry like eight
days ago so that thing has just been absolutely ripping it's the only really true small cap in my
whole portfolio right now um and it's performing really well so i think we started at a four and a
half percent position it's almost a seven percent waiting now in the portfolio so it's been absolutely
on a tear uh centrist energy doesn't seem to want to go down.
Found its way to squeeze out another 3.5% day again today to the upside.
I think sellers are just disappearing on this thing as that expansion news came out last week about their Piked in Ohio plant.
That was like the bull thesis for Centrist and it's panning out now. So, um, not surprised that sellers are disappearing on that one as it hits back to three 15 today.
It's my largest position by waiting.
My second largest position by waiting is Nebius obviously, which is, uh, also up two and a
half percent today.
So yeah, it was a nice day today for pretty much everything.
Um, not a whole lot of whole lot of distinctions and observations you
think I think you can make on a day like today where there was so much strength, but that's fine
by me. You know, even on some of the choppier days last week, I found my way to make some relative
strength observations, but I don't even know if that's too productive to do in this environment
because it seems like a market that just net-net wants to go up.
Now we have a lot of quarterly rebalancing actions that are going to happen in the next nine days or so.
Next nine to 12 days, I think, is really a better way to put it.
You will probably see some big random moves on a lot of individual stocks.
probably see some big random moves on a lot of individual stocks. I think one thing that I like
because I'm focused on smid caps is in smid caps, you're generally isolated from those types of
moves. Those types of aggressive rotations tend to happen in the more liquid names. You're talking
50 plus billion market cap, at least usually 100 plus billion. Those are the names that see
really aggressive rotations because they allow for it. You have to think from a liquidity
standpoint, like if an institution is positioned in a SMID cap name, let's say, and they want to
decrease their exposure or rotate out of it into a new quarter, they can't do that immediately.
The liquidity doesn't allow for it. They would tank the stock
and they would hurt their own sales. So they have to gradually exit those positions, which means
that there tends to be less of a direct volatility impact from institutions rotating in and out of
smid caps. And you'd think it wouldn't be that way, right? Like intuitively you would think,
well, smid caps are actually more susceptible to extreme volatility
when there's institutions rotating in and out. But it actually doesn't work that way. So
counterintuitive, but yeah, smid caps provides you a little bit of isolation, I think, during
these quarterly rebalance periods, the same way that they do provide you some shelter during
events like quad witching and stuff. So just another advantage of being in those mid-cap names in my view.
But it's a healthy market.
I mean, very healthy market.
As far as I can see, all I'm seeing is broadening.
I think the rebound in crypto over the weekend was much needed just for speculative purposes.
Crypto is a really important part of speculative enthusiasm in this market.
And so you need it to
kind of perform if you want the high beta stuff to perform so I liked the rebound we saw in crypto
over the weekend it was much needed it was at a very critical spot for Bitcoin on the weekly chart
that it defended around that 1095 area and then got a really really nice bounce and over 5000 higher
so crypto did what it needed to do over the weekend. A lot of individual stocks,
market leading names did what they needed to do at the end of last week. And when I'm thinking
about price action in these moments in the market where there's a lot of narrative headbutting going
on, there's a lot of people like calling for a top and then there's other people that are like,
I don't know when it's going to come. And when you have this kind of a lot of narrative noise,
I think the best thing you can do is ask yourself, like, what do the stocks need to do?
You know, what spots do they need to defend?
Not what you want to happen, because like in these kind of environments, you're not going to get ideal price action.
You get ideal price action when everything's gravy and you're in a raging bull market and conditions are, you know, in the status quo are relatively chill. That's like when
you when everything works. And, you know, every wedge breakout is exploding to the upside,
every test of the 200 day moving average is producing a 20% upside move. Those environments
are not only easier to trade, but they don't require a lot of conviction, and they don't
require you to do a lot of work. These environments that we're in now, you sort of have to stay focused on the names you own and on a week to week basis, ask yourself, OK, the price action may not have
been ideal this week. It may have been noisy on the daily chart. It may have even shaken out a
lot of shorter term traders. But is it defending the spots it needs to on those weekly and monthly
charts? Like are bidders stepping in at the last point of support?
Like that's what you want to see in this market.
You want to see bidders still willing to buy stocks that might show relative weakness
headed into these types of days.
So I'm still seeing that.
You know, I'm still seeing stocks that even the disappointing stocks, right?
Like there are only two names.
Right now I'm holding 19 names.
Like I mentioned, there are only two names that are down from our entry.
Both of those names into the end of last week and the start of this week,
we're defending the spots they needed to defend. So that's promising to me from a price action
standpoint. And that's the kind of things I like to look for in environments like this,
rather than listen to everyone else who's telling me how to feel. I like to kind of just zoom in
and be like, okay, is this working how it's supposed to work? Are the buyers stepping
in where they have to step in? If they are, then, you know, who am I to say the market's going to
break down in a scenario like that? So I remain cautiously bullish. Obviously, the caution mostly
comes from the reality, frankly, that we've doubled the NASDAQ in two years. So yeah,
things do feel stretched. But I'm not going to be a guy that fades a doubled the NASDAQ in two years. So yeah, things do feel stretched,
but I'm not going to be a guy that fades a bull market. We're in a bull market at the technical
say it, the economic data still says it. We're still hanging on by a thread as far as it comes
to labor. So, you know, you have to just wait till the data says we're not in a bull market anymore.
And I don't know when that's going to be, But for now, you dance while the music's playing,
and you've been getting paid if you've been doing that.
All right, well, I'm here now.
I was going to say, I hope both the hosts are in AFP.
No, no, I just got here.
So I don't know what's really been covered yet,
but I do have a question that I'm curious on your opinion on.
It's around the quantum stuff.
And I think there's a couple different pieces that we could hit on this.
But I'm curious, you and Logical both, if Logical's still up here.
But like today, you just said dance while the music's playing,
right? And how does that work on a sector by sector basis? And then when it comes to something
like quantum, today we saw Citron came out a little bit ago and they're shorting it. They're
putting out a short report, those kinds of things. I'm just curious how much credence you put into
short reports if it depends on who it's from.
Do you read that and add that to your research?
Where's the, I guess, the balance there?
And then as far as, hey, a sector, a theme is hot.
I mean, if the market's hot, the market's hot, right?
But on top of that, when you go down to sector, I'm curious your thoughts around,
okay, the quantum names of the
whole are all doing this. They're holding their moving averages, for the example. I'm not looking
at the charts. I'm just saying for the example. Do you still dance while that's playing and wait
for that to break? You've talked about Nebius. You've talked about several of these other rare
earths. Just curious, where do you go with that? of get your kind of get your question yeah so I think a lot of what you're referring to
is actually has to do with stock picking you know when we refer to like the music
playing the there's a couple things to realize about that first of all the
music doesn't play equally across the whole market it never does so like
everything goes up the same amount right so? So that's point one. The music does not play equally across the whole market.
Point two is if you ascribe to this philosophy of dancing while the music is playing, which
essentially for people that don't know what that means, what that means is you stay long
until the market forces you to not be long.
That's what that means.
Okay.
You just stay long in perpetuity until there is a genuine legitimate breakdown on
your short-term stocks then you sell your short-term stocks you keep your long-term stocks
you build core positions that you can hold into the next cycle that's what that means that's what
dance while the music is playing means but anyway if you ascribe to that philosophy of dance while
the music is playing what you are also assuming what is implicit in that philosophy is that the
music will stop right if like if you say dance while the music is playing you are implying that
at some point the music will not be played right and that's where the stock picking comes in
because there are a lot of people and you can ask the SPAC people from 2021 about this and I think um Brian brought
up some names there's a lot of SPAC names from 2021 that are either not listed anymore or didn't
recover at all despite what's happened to the markets in the last two years many of them are
still 90 cents or a dollar right but in the moment in 2021 they were the best things to trade they
were the single best upside opportunities in the market, risk reward opportunities in the market in 2021. I traded the hell out of them.
I did not hold any of them post that cycle. But that's the difference, right? The difference is
distinguishing, like when you look at, from a technical standpoint, when you look at momentum,
right? If you're somebody who's like, oh, I'm going to identify momentum stocks in the market,
somebody who's like, oh, I'm going to identify momentum stocks in a market, and you're looking
at them purely technically. The good quality names and the momentum hype garbage names look
really similar. They both win the title of momentum stocks if you were looking at them in purely a
technical vacuum. But to your point of which ones you should be willing to or scared to hold into the next cycle, I think the distinction is is the context.
Right. Like what you know about them, how how much you feel that you can stomach the valuations.
Like I think a nuclear great example of this is the small modular reactor stocks versus the national strategic asset stocks.
Right. Like SMR, we owned it earlier in the year in 18
sold it at 36 never got back in i don't know what it's trading at today maybe higher maybe lower but
it doesn't matter to me why did i not hold that stock despite my belief in the nuclear trade well
because it's a pre-revenue stock i can't personally in my brain justify it at a 10 or 15 or whatever valuation it was when we sold it. Same thing
for Joby. Like Joby, we got an A50, sold at 16, 17. I don't know what it is today. Maybe it's
higher, maybe it's lower. I haven't looked at it. The point is, is I couldn't stomach it at a 15,
16, 17 billion dollar valuation or whatever it was when we sold it, because again, it's a pre-revenue name.
So for me, and this is just me, the pre-revenue names that are momentum stocks are just for trading.
And the ones that I decide to keep, if I do ever keep them, are ones that I feel like
have real sustainable value.
Now, there are examples of that.
Robinhood from last year, right?
We're in sub 10, still own it.
It's 100 plus, still own it, right? We're in sub 10, still own it. It's a hundred plus, still own it, right?
So that's a name that I didn't just trade out for the momentum, right? I held it through
last year and this year, and I plan to continue to hold it. I have a sub 20 cost basis. At this
point, that's going to become a core part of the portfolio probably forever, you know, for the
You know, for the foreseeable future, I should say, not forever, because I don't want to ever say that.
foreseeable future, I should say, not forever, because I don't want to ever say that. But
But that's an example of one that I retained, right?
And then on the nuclear side, I was like, okay, getting out of SMR, but I kept centrist energy and energy fuels.
Well, why did I keep those ones?
Well, because even though on a PE basis or price to sales basis, they were overvalued in May, the same way they are overvalued now.
They have real strategic national assets in Pipedon, Ohio, Enrichment Plant, and the White
Mesa Mill that I knew, or in my view, not knew, but I had studied those assets well,
and I felt that they were extremely valuable national assets. So I stayed long those stocks.
Look how well those stocks have held up energy fuels
and centers versus the rest of the nuclear stocks and look at the constant bid underneath those
things even on days when nuclear is corrected right that's the market loudly telling you the
distinction between hype and actual value so to your question about any of these names space stocks
satellite stocks nuclear stocks stocks. There are names
in these industries that will probably find their way to be first movers of some sort or product
innovators of some sort, or even be beneficiaries of huge levels of government assistance or
government investment like we're seeing in nuclear. All of those are potential routes to
them becoming legitimate plays.
But the vast majority of these momentum stocks are going to go to zero.
Like, let's not lie to ourselves.
The vast majority of these pre-revenue stocks are not going to become multi-billion dollar
behemoths.
I mean, even when you look at the SMR stocks, right, which again, I'm bullish on nuclear.
I'm bullish on small modular reactors.
Like, what is the business going to look like for those guys, even when they do
deploy the SMRs? Is it going to be an extremely high margin, like business? No, no, like, who are
we kidding? So you have to try to contextualize things. And look, Brian was saying this, too.
He was like, oh, well, the pre-revenue people, they missed Oklo. Yeah, OK.
You're going to miss stocks by having that point of view.
I'm not saying you should never trade a pre-revenue stock.
I'm saying for me personally, to be able to hold a stock for multiple months or multiple years, I have to be able to wrap my mind around if it is valued at a premium, why it is valued at a premium.
And if it's not, you know, then I have to wrap my mind around why it should be. And those two things are sort of the way that I try to guide what I hold
versus what I trade. And I like to trade the hype stuff. I've traded the quantum names. I've traded
the space and satellite names. I've traded the SMR names. I've traded these stocks. I'm not telling
people not to trade them. You should trade them. They're fantastic stocks to trade, especially when they have catalysts.
But I don't, for me personally, in my portfolio, I don't see a place for them in terms of durable
holds for any of those names.
Now, Centris and Energy Fuels, that's different.
Those I am holding, right?
Those I don't think are just hype.
I think they're very, very valuable national strategic assets.
But, you know, the other pre-revenue names like no, and I don't have really any I mean, I guess you could I do
have technically one sort of pre-revenue name in my portfolio. It's the only small cap in my
portfolio. But outside of that, I don't really have a lot of pre-revenue exposure. And some
people do and some people love it. And they think it's, you know, the hottest things that sliced
bread. That's cool. And if you if you feel that way, that's fine. But for me, being able to hold stocks
through multiple different market corrections and rebounds, the ones that I've found
to be better to do that with are the ones that are, you know, have a real value proposition,
have real innovation.
They're at the cusp of the margin of their industry when it comes to new products.
And they're not, you know, just a completely speculative pre-revenue company.
It's really, really hard to do all the things that's necessary to go from, you know, no real products,
no real commercial revenue to like significant commercial revenue.
That's like a very, very big step.
It requires a lot of execution.
It just requires a ton of stuff.
So I think a lot of people feel like there's a zero risk path to monetization for a lot of these things.
And that's why they're willing to pay up.
But for me, a lot of the pre-revenue valuations, not just in quantum, in a lot of industries, in SMRs, in space and satellites, in a lot of these industries, I think are just ridiculous.
Even in some of these pure play robotic stocks, like I think the valuations are getting ridiculous.
The pure play drone stocks, like ONDS, valuations are absurd.
Some of them are making like $3 million in revenue per quarter, trading at $1.5 billion valuations.
It makes no sense.
So could those stocks all go higher?
Yes.
If the bull market continues, those groups of speculative stocks likely go much higher.
Am I feeling the need to be exposed to them here to get upside of the market?
And I've done fine.
I mean, I post my performance all the time.
You guys have seen I've done just. I mean, I post my performance all the time. You guys have seen I've done just
fine not owning these names. So I think there's a propensity for new traders to think that they
have to own the hype. They have to own the open doors and this and that in order to make money
in the market. They have to own the stocks that like are going up 80% in a day to make money.
And this is not true. It's just simply simply not true i've owned like nine stocks this year that have doubled this year all of them in different industries you know everything from
lift to centrist to nebius to robin hood to kratos like these are all in different industries on all
these names they've all doubled bloom energy cypher on and on and on and on like you can find
opportunity in the market with with with stocks that have a real story, that have real
potential value, whether or not it pans out, that may or may not have value that's off the balance
sheet, like with things I discussed, like with Centris and Energy Fuels. There are so many ways
to find perceived value. It doesn't have to just be the PE ratio or the revenue the company's
making per quarter. It can maybe be something that they own that no one else owns or a capability they have that no one else has. That's worth something in
the open market. And a lot of times the strictly balance sheet guys or the strictly chart guys
will insist that it's not worth something. And I disagree with that. I think that the context
is really the answer to your initial question is context, is that that's how you decide
where the music is playing. And that's how you decide that, hey, if I know that eventually the
music will stop playing, I don't want to be holding the names that are going to fall off a cliff.
Right? That's the distinction, is that when that moment comes, I don't want to own those names.
So there are people that are okay with that. There's people that when that moment comes, I don't want to own those names. So there are people that are
okay with that. There's people that when the market crashes, they'll be in all the pre-revenue
names and they'll be okay with the results. And if you're somebody that's an experienced risk
manager, then have at it. I'm not going to stop anyone from making money. If you're making money
on those things, do it. But for me, I like to, when the crash does come, and it will come, it will come.
It always does.
I want to be in the names that I can sit on and be like, you know what?
I know why I own this.
Yes, it could go 40, 50% lower, but I would just buy more.
Those are the only names I want to own in that moment.
And whenever that moment comes, right now, like I said, I have 19 positions in the book.
I'll probably go down from 19 positions to nine positions in that moment.
Right.
Because I only have about eight to nine core positions.
So, yeah, that's kind of how I feel.
I feel I feel fine in this market and there will be that moment.
And when that moment comes, I'll be ready for it.
But I think a lot of people need to realize, hey, depending what you own your portfolio,
you have to be OK owning that when the drawdown does come.
Right?
Because some things are going to draw down a lot more significantly than others whenever that moment does come.
So, yeah, that's kind of my thoughts on the music playing.
It's not always playing equally.
And the last thing I'll say is that some people, I think, think that just because the markets are grinding higher that they can own
anything and benefit from that and I also don't think that's true I think that's a misconception
as well people like oh well spy's going up so like this stock that I own that hasn't performed for
four months like it'll perform right eventually it'll perform eventually somebody will find it
like not necessarily so that's important to keep in mind too just because the market goes up doesn't
mean every stock in the entire market goes up right or just because the S&P 500 goes up doesn't mean
your favorite mid-cap stock is going to get a bid. It is not required to, right? Your favorite
$2 billion mid-cap stock that you've loved for years that hasn't caught a bid, just because the
market's going up doesn't mean everyone's going to find it all of a sudden, right? Something has
to happen. Catalyst has to emerge, maybe a great earnings report, maybe a CEO change, maybe a competitor
of theirs falls out of the market.
Who knows?
Something has to change, usually, in order for those things to get found.
So, yep, feel very good about the market.
Like I said, 14 out of 19 positions green today, nothing down more than 1.5%.
So I feel very comfortable with the names that we're in.
So, yep.
I see Jaguar joined us up here.
What's going on, Jaguar?
Good afternoon, everybody.
How's it going?
Hey, what a performance by Dallas last night.
I thought that...
Yes, yes, what a performance.
And it was one crazy game.
You go to overtime, then you tie, and nobody wins.
So it's funny because I had the money line bet on Dallas last night,
and I saw that it was moving in the direction that I could lose the bet.
So when they were actually ahead,
I cashed out a pretty nice chunk of money on the bet,
and then it ended up being a tie.
So I would have actually, it would have been voided
had I stayed all the way.
Nevertheless, fantastic.
Did you see the, so Hood, just for that game last night,
the Robin Hood prediction alone,
there was over 19 million contracts traded,
which is 190,000 in revenue from one game.
Yeah, that's what I was pointing out in week one. And then I noticed a trend here that it just kept going and going. So, you know, I saw
one analysis from JPMorgan Chase on this, another one from Bank of America. My expectation is that
by the time we get to playoffs you're gonna see 40 50 million contracts
per game will become a new normal people are still discovering these prediction
markets and as they have expanded into spreads and a couple other maybe
ultimately we'll have player props to available in Robin Hood so yeah the
number will only go up maybe we'll see peaking around
15 million. I don't know exactly what the addressable market size is, but you get to a point when you
do math around it that it's, yeah, they're probably in the two, three hundred million dollars in
sales per year around this prediction market for now. I'm not sure how many people are trading in and out throughout the game.
I would assume it's a smaller percentage of the overall,
but I do know that that's happening.
But a guy that I follow that's tracking all of this on his own spreadsheet,
he said, he put this out about an hour ago,
Juan Rodriguez is the guy's name,
124 million contracts traded yesterday, just on Sunday,
124 million contracts traded.
That's 1.24 million in revenue.
Yeah, you know, it's funny.
So you can, I don't know if you've done this, Emperor,
but on your phone, if you turn the Robinhood app on
while the game is playing,
you can put up the chart of both teams side by side right on your phone.
And just like we watch Tix, the Zero DT guys,
and then they go in both directions, calls and puts,
that's exactly what's going on.
People have these odds of win or loss, you know, Dallas odds, win or loss.
And they're watching this chart move up or down as the game is happening, and they're betting in
that direction, and they're cashing out. That's how it typically works. But if that's what people
were doing yesterday, then I think now in terms of context of stock market, yesterday was a chop day for that game.
You know, where, you know,
it was three point or one possession game that kept going back and forth between the two teams.
So if you were trying to look for a trend,
there was no trend.
Both were at pretty much 50-50 odd for most of the time,
and you couldn't make any money on it, essentially.
Look at the nest up top i just
pinned i actually took a screenshot of it last night and posted it yeah look at that
that's exactly what i'm talking about a chop day yesterday for now if you get something like when
the lions played on sunday right if you look at that chart i bet you it was a very clean, just steady up all the way towards 100%.
But yeah, I wanted to circle back to what Stock Talk was saying. Your question was about
IonQ, right? And how, generally speaking, how does one go about protecting?
It's kind of a two-part thing here.
One being you have a sector that... The quantum sector, I think, is an interesting subject either way.
And then within that, you had Citron come out
and say that they were shorting quantum today.
And so I'm curious within the noise of a catalyst type of event
or people flooding into quantum that's had these tell winds with headlines behind it, the navigation of that from your perspective.
Very simple answer.
Callers.
For those who understand, they know exactly what I'm talking about, but the answer is very simple.
Callers. talking about but the answer is very simple collars i did collars on seven positions last week
and not entire positions but partial positions and the plan is to continue to do the same thing
in many other positions so i'm gonna put this in the nest because i posted about this
last week as well on September 19 in fact.
This is about IonQ. I've been long this stock for a very very long time.
From low teens. So it's been a phenomenal trade for me.
And that's not counting many times when I wrote covered calls in this or I sold out of money puts that also expired worthless for maximum gains. But anyways, take a look at this post in the nest. You know, after that massive run when the company
held the analyst day and it broke out through 45 and it just went straight to 70 plus,
it was so easy. And this is what I typically do when my stocks get extremely overbought,
which at this time I find
there's a lot of those right across the board with too many
overbought conditions everywhere. So the simple thing that I like to do is I go
out two to three months and I sell 30 Delta, way out of money, 30 Delta calls
and I use the proceeds to partially finance
right at the money puts. It's called caller. You're selling the covered calls
and you're financing right at the money puts. You still pay net debit for it.
So in this case, if you look at what I did in IonQ, It was $11.60 that I paid for the puts at 70 strike, expiring in November, and I partially financed it by selling the max November 105 strike covered calls that was available at the time for 460 credit.
460 credit. So I paid net net about $7 for that, which is 10% of the underlying. And now I can go
to bed. I can sleep and I not have to worry about what may happen to INQ tomorrow. And that's
exactly what happened. You've seen the stock rolled over right now. It's about $63, but I am 100% fully hedged below 70. It can collapse, get cut in half, all the way down to 35, and I wouldn't care.
Because I am basically fully protected below 70, and all it cost me was 10% of the underlying.
That's it. Easy, simple. Now, I did this in Rocket Lab. I did this in, again, I didn't do against the entire position. In some cases, I did it against partial position. In some cases, against the entire position. But I did this in Rocket Lab. I did this in Tempus AI.
half the position because I do think that that thing is going to make another run towards 100
plus soon, maybe after next earnings, and at least four other stocks in my portfolio.
So that's what I like to do. When things run too hot, and especially when you are holding stuff
that is, like Stock Talk was saying, these are pre-revenue companies that you have no idea.
They may not make any money for the next five years, and this could end up being a dot-com-style bubble or whatnot.
Just callers. Easy peasy. Just do callers.
30 Delta. Sell the 30 Delta. Cover calls. Finance right at the money. Put options.
That's it.
Those callers, you're basically putting a floor and a ceiling around your position, right?
Like, okay, I'm up this X amount.
Let me just squeeze it in here and survive. And what's best case scenario, right?
You just sit in it.
I mean, if there is any drawdown, like right? You just sit in it.
I mean, if there is any drawdown, like you're not that worried about it.
That's exactly right.
You know, so if IonQ, for example, goes to 105 on November expiration and it expires and the stock settles above 105 on November expiration,
I'm going to make the entire money on top of what I've already made. I'm going to make more money all the way from 70 to 105. That is $35. $35 as a percentage of when
I put this collar on, which was when the stock was at 70, 35 divided by 70 is another 50% gain from the time when I put on this collar, right?
But on the other hand, if the stock collapses, right, and goes right below 70,
max loss is $7 or 10% of the underlying because for that collar, I paid $7.
That's it.
Now, I'll give you an example because I don't have a position in Centris Energy
and I know Stock Talk does, but at the time when I was looking at a whole bunch of these
stocks last week and I was thinking about, you know, how some of these stocks have made a dramatic
move. Now, I don't know. The prices have changed since then, but i was looking at this at centrist too at that one point and i was seeing that you could have gone to november and you could have sold 400 and this
was when stock was at 303 or 304 that's centrist energy you could have sold 420 strike
covered calls in november to finance right at the money 300 strike puts.
The stock was trading at 302 or 303, something like that.
Net cost was only $14, which as a percentage of the underlying,
it's less than 5%.
You are 100% protected below 300, and it could collapse.
It could go to 150 or 100 for that matter.
It doesn't really matter.
While you're still leaving, giving yourself room all the way to 420.
Now maybe you think that even you don't want to even do that.
That's perfectly fine.
Then you can find something else, but that's how I like to do it, especially after parabolic
runs.
You know, one could do this in ACLO.
One could do this in Oclo, one could do this in anything. So if some short settler comes
out tomorrow and starts
hammering IonQ
and takes it all the way down to
50, 45, 40, I really
don't care. I am fully hedged
below 70 and
would not matter to me a bit.
Yeah, that makes perfect sense i'm curious stock talk do you have any thoughts around that strategy yeah callers are a great way to do it callers are a great way to do it if you want to
pay for it using you know a cap on your position i mean me and jag trade a little differently you
know jag is a lot more active than i am you know we talked about me and we had the debate about rolling and and stuff so for me if i ever want
to protect a position i generally protect my position headed into binary events like i it's
i'm one of those guys where again i don't know when the market correction is going to come so i
try not to prepare my positions for that event but if my positions are ever going into like if i have
a big position that's up a lot that's's going into earnings, for example, I just grab some naked puts,
you know, I'll, I'll try to grab naked puts that can cover the quantity of the shares that can
cover like the underlying one-to-one. And I'll try to buy them relatively close to the money if
I can get them. Um, and that's kind of how I'll manage risk in a binary events, but there's a lot
of ways to do it. What Jag's saying is a very capital efficient way to do it.
And it allows you to set a target for what you want.
But like for me, for high conviction positions, I, I just can't sell covered calls on high
conviction positions because my goal is to accumulate shares on high conviction positions,
not to like trim in and out of strength.
And I know some people who are really good at doing that. That's not really my MO. My MO is more like thematically relevant
stock picking, finding really, really high conviction positions, two or three in each
basket and just riding them like with insane conviction. Sometimes I even think I'm crazy.
Like there are moments in parts of bull markets, Like there were parts of last year where I held stuff for like three or four months longer than I thought I was going to.
And I'm like, dude, am I crazy?
But, you know, like on Centris, for example, you know, pull up that monthly chart.
I mean, I bought the stock at 96 in May, right?
It's tripled since then.
But you would think, okay, you should take some off the table.
I get that philosophy, you know, and maybe I'll regret it.
But I look at that monthly chart and I see all-time volume coming out of a 25-year base.
You know, this 315 area that's priced pushed into today is actually a huge historic level.
I don't know. I'm rocking with it.
I think the fact that it's the only commercial uranium enrichment plant in the entire country,
and they just got an expansion from the DOE,
I think the likelihood that this becomes the uranium enrichment
of the entire Western Hemisphere for national security purposes is highly likely.
And at that valuation, I think people are going to look off the balance sheet like they have.
I mean, when I bought it at 96, the funny thing is I bought this stock at 40 in 2021. And if you go back and look at my tweets and people were like, dude, the P is so high.
That's what they were telling me in 2021 when it was 40. And I was like, yeah, but they're the only
uranium enrichment in the country. And people didn't get that. They didn't get why that's
valuable. Right. Like I had a lot of, you could go look at the debates on my tweets from 2021
and people are like debating me. They're like, yeah, dude, like no one's ever going to pay a
higher P for that business. It's not a, it's not a high margin business. Right. And I was
like, dude, that's not the point. The point is, is that we have no zero, none zip uranium
enrichment capacity in the entire nation. And they're the only guys that do it. And they've
20, they really have 50 years of experience doing it, you know, but, me, it was a pretty simple thesis. And the stock
has obviously tripled since then. And I actually think it's going much, much, much higher. So
it's still a 6 billion market cap, right? Like you look at ASPI, LTBR, all these other fuel and
enrichment speculative stocks. And I know all the nuclear names. Nuclear Watch is like 45 names.
I've spent over a thousand hours researching the industry.
I've researched SMRs.
I've researched the entire enrichment supply chain.
I know this like the back of my hand.
And in my view, energy fuels and centrist energy are maybe the most important strategic assets we have for nuclear supply chain in the whole country.
And they're both sub 10 billion market caps.
What are we talking about?
So to me, that's the thesis the thesis is not the p.e. ratio or the fact the charge extended or
anything it's that i think still people are misunderstanding the opportunity in nuclear
they're focused on the smrs there's too much valuation stocked into those in my opinion
i think a lot of i think billions of dollars is going to come out of the smr valuations i even
think billions of dollars might not even come out of the SMR valuations. I even think billions of dollars might not even come out of the utility valuations, because those are getting a little high in some places, too.
And a lot of it, I think, is going to go to the strategic assets, because this is an administration that has made it very clear that they value strategic assets and are willing to put administration support and money.
And keep in mind, this administration that does not want to throw money around in these industries, right? Like they hated the CHIPS Act. They tried to find
ways to get these companies to comply with CHIPS Act provisions without getting money.
Like they want, they don't want to give money to people, but in the rare earth industry,
specifically into the nuclear industry, specifically, they're moving quickly. And I
think much more money will be deployed. And there just aren't a lot of people that have the expertise to do what's being done
at Piketon Enrichment or what's being done at White Mesa. You can't just build it. I think
that's the misperception that people have, is that like, well, you could just build a uranium
enrichment plant. No, you can't. That's not how it works at all.
And not to mention the years of regulatory approvals you have to go through. Like people
forgot Centris Energy was spun off from the DOD, right? The Centris Energy was a part of the
government. Then they became a private company. You cannot just spawn a uranium, even if you have
unlimited money. Like even if Elon Musk wanted to build a uranium-riched plant, he can't just do it.
And same thing at White Mesa.
Like, the heavy rare earth that White Mesa, go look at the strength in energy fuel stock from August 10th to today.
Nothing but bids, right?
And it won't even go down.
It was down like 1.7% today. Like, that's a bad day for that stock. it won't even go down. It was down like 1.7% today.
Like that's a bad day for that stock.
Why won't it go down?
Because they purified heavy rare earths,
the only place in the country that did it at White Mesa,
and they were commercially approved
by the biggest battery manufacturer in South Korea.
These sort of validations hold value.
Like they are a driver of value, right? And the people who get fixated
on balance sheets miss that. So yeah, for me, I agree. There's great ways to manage risk. I do
it with naked puts. Jag brought up a great way to do it with callers. But there are some positions
for me that I'm so high conviction on in terms of their relative valuations that I don't actively
or consistently hedge those positions i
only hedge them in moments where the charts are breaking down or where binary events are coming up
i like to hedge when charts are breaking down is a simpler way to put it i don't like to just stay
hedged at all times what's up jaguar there's a breaking news on rocket lab after hours this
stock is making a small move up one dollar or or about 2-2.5%, but this could make a bigger move tomorrow. We'll see. They're saying that Rocket Lab and Synspective strike another 10 launch deal, boosting contracted missions to 21 electron launches.
missions to 21 electron launches.
Announced that it has secured a second multi-launch contract with Synspective, a leading synthetic
aperture radar satellite data and analytics company from Japan.
The new contract for a further 10 dedicated Electron launches brings the total number of upcoming Synspective missions to 21, marking the largest order of dedicated Electron missions
with a single customer to date.
Following the first launch agreement announced in June 2024, the second multi-launch contract
within 18 months further solidifies Electron's international expansion. There's more to
this you can pull up the press release yourself and read it but this just
basically further boosts the not the funded but the contracted backlog that
the company has and it just keeps happening around the world.
Anybody that wants to set a satellite into the sky, they call the 800 number to Rocket Lab and they do it for them.
So this is good news.
You know, the stock has settled back in.
This is again one of my names that I'm long and in this case, only against partial position,
I've sold all the way out to 70 strike covered calls
against partial position to hedge myself below $45 per share the the concept that
we were just talking about because just because the stock ran up so much and so
on but I expect this to pop on this tomorrow should be a good day
day that's not gonna be the suckers been a beast all the space satellite sucks
been beast but I mean to Jaguar's point me Jaguar knows this stuff very well you
guys see his research and you know I like to think of myself in the same way
like I we both deep dive the names that we do own and the names that we know and
like we know them we read the analyst And like we know them, we read the analyst notes, like we know the details.
We read the, you know, industry surveys.
You guys have to know your stuff that well in order to hold it in these kind of markets.
Because, yeah, this has been a great market.
It's been an easy market.
Last year was an easy market too.
But there's moments of volatility, right?
Even in easy markets.
Like last year, there were – what did we have?
Two or – how many 10% corrections corrections we have last year three or two
or evan when you will probably know that i think it was i think it's just one
right no we no we had one but there was like three that were five percent or above yeah there
was one that was like not eight or nine right i think that was close to 10 but anyway we had a
couple little blips last year we had a big blip this year.
What was that decline?
27 peak to 12?
Hold on.
We had a big one last year, too.
That was July and August.
Remember the Sunday night massacre when Nasdaq was down 1,100 or 1,200 points in one session?
Yeah.
VIX went to 65.
What was that peak to 12?
Like 12 or 13?
On SPY, it was only like, well, if you don't include like the morning stuff,
just day by day, it was only like, it was right less than 10% actually.
Yeah.
I don't remember.
But if you include that overnight when NASDAQ was getting over,
I think it was high teens, something like that.
Yeah.
I remember that.
Yeah.
Yeah.
The overnight knife.
Yeah.
And then that got bought up a lot by the open and it was driven by the the Japanese chaos right with the
Yeah, yeah, yep. Yep. I remember that. Okay, so so yeah, so we got a couple of blips last year
We got a nice big deep blip this year. We got obviously a massacre in 22. So the retail guys have seen the knife
They've seen the knife, right?
Do you know, Stock Talk, do you know Jeff Mackey?
That rings a bell.
So I know Jeff Mackey.
He used to be on CNBC as one of the panelists for many, many years on Fast Money.
I've had dinners with
him a couple times when we were in Vegas together and he's very nice guy and
very funny guy too like he would occasionally throw jokes you know in the
middle of discussions and very very nice guy. Anyway so one time and this was
you know when when I was only a few years into the markets myself, we were out together and he made a point over dinner that resonated with me.
Until today, I remember this.
He said that there will be times in the market when the whole stock market, everything, the whole stock market will go down 30% or more.
It will happen only a few times in your life.
Only a few times.
When that happens, you go all in.
You don't ask questions.
You just go all in.
You buy the whole market and do not care. You just buy it. It will only happen a few
times, 30% or more drawdowns. Now, the reason why it has resonated with me, 30% are very, very real,
like GFC and .com and so on, or the pandemic crash. But outside of 30%, if you think about just how frequently we get 20% to 30% drawdowns, right?
We just had one, you know, six months ago in April, in March and April.
Before that, we had one in not that high, but we got pretty close to it in July and August last year.
last year. Before that, we had in 2022. Before that, I mean, this seems to be a repeating pattern
Before that, we had in 2022.
where these very high drawdowns, very fast and vicious, just happen every six months to,
I would say, six months to every two years. Take advantage of those. That's all I was going to say
because you may not be getting full-blown bear markets, but you're going to open up the opportunities.
They're just going to open up in front of you.
And they're phenomenal.
They're fantastic.
Anyways, I just randomly remembered that discussion one time I had with him.
There's some news out for Eric since I was just talking about Energy Fuels.
Energy Fuels doing a $550 million convertible notes offering.
Stock's down about 5.5%.
Actually, kind of perfect.
You need to do a 21 EMA retest anyway.
So that'd be nice,
but very interesting in this filing,
they say exactly what you want to hear specific funding targets include our
phase two rare earth separation circuit expansion at the white mess up mill and the
development of our donald heavy mineral sands project in australia people that don't know
what that is we don't follow the energy fuel story the heavy rare earth um separation that
they did at the beginning of august is the first that's ever been done on U.S. soil.
Okay. It was then validated eight days later by the largest battery manufacturer in South Korea as high enough purity to be used in electric vehicle batteries. That is another very major
validation. And now today they're raising 550 million and it says specific funding includes
the expansion of our phase two rare earth project at
waste that might make some mill and their heavy rare earth mining and purification project in
australia so this is i think the perfect use of the money and stock is getting sold here we'll
see how it acts tomorrow i'm not the one to call for day-to-day moves, but we'll see.
The stock is down about 6% after hours.
For people that don't remember, Centris Energy did an offering when the stock was about 260 back in June,
or I believe it was July, I forgot exactly the month it was.
So stock fell from 260 to 160.
The stock fell from 260 to 160.
Then a week later, 160, by the way, was around like, I think, believe the hundred eight or was around the 21 weeks, something like that.
Moving average. I forgot exactly what it was.
But anyway, it came down to that spot to like the dollar.
And then a week later, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, shows up at a MOU signing for Centris Energy. I tweeted
about it and I was like, how often does the United States Secretary of Commerce go to the signing of
not a major national contract, but an MOU for a sub $4 billion company? Has that ever happened?
I haven't. To personally attend it made no sense to me. But anyway, the stock then trended up the next day about 3% or 4%, went from 160 to 165.
And in the preceding three weeks, the stock ran back to 300 plus with no other news.
Just the U.S. Secretary of Commerce had attended this MOU and no one saw it and no one recognized the significance of the news,
wasn't on any news sources, but I tweeted it with a bunch of question marks.
How often do you see this?
The stock doubled in the three weeks after that.
And then last week, they announced an expansion of Pipedon and Richmond.
Like, the signs, the key leaves were there for those that were paying attention.
But the problem is, is that this is why there's so much more alpha in mid-caps.
Because Wall Street doesn't have their eyes on this.
Not one analyst commented on Lutnik attending that ceremony. Not one. And I read all of their reports, all the ones that cover centrist at least. Nobody commented on it. Nobody thought that was significant. Really?
you that you sign every few years, all of a sudden he's attending your ceremonies.
I thought that was significant. And then you see two weeks later, they do the thing. And so
since they're offering, the stocks doubled since they're offering two months ago,
so I don't know. But there's a supply chain in the United States lacks severely.
chain in the United States lacks severely. And that is rare earths, right? We, with China,
that's our pain point with China, especially heavy rare earths. They push the pressure on us every
single time we try to lever something in negotiations. Why do you think the China
negotiations didn't go anywhere with Trump? Because he knew he could bully everyone else,
but he couldn't bully them because they were like,
dude, we'll just shut off the rare earth tap. And your entire aerospace and defense industry,
everything is fucked. You're the semiconductor industry. You won't be able to do anything.
And so he knew, okay, I can't battle with that. And so now the administration is racing,
racing, right? You saw the MP deal. You saw the Lithium Americas deal, although I don't know why
they did the Lithium Americas deal before securing more rare earth deals, but we'll see what happens. But the Lithium Americas
deal, the NP deal, there will be more deals. What they're trying to do is essentially not
nationalize because they're not taking 100% stakes in the company, but they're attempting to
somewhat nationalize a heavy rare earth supply chain overnight, right, to spawn one overnight.
And there's only a handful of assets that are commercially viable in the country. And if you
pay attention, you'll know which ones those are. And all of those stocks have doubled in the last
month or so. But I think they haven't been more broadly recognized, their importance. So this is
a great offering. I think this money is going to be well used. I think the offering, they should
do a bigger offering. I think they should do another offering be well used. I think the offering, they should do a bigger offering.
I think they should do another offering.
You know,
I think with,
with mid caps,
when you're doing offerings like this,
I think you're,
the investor base is more tolerant of it,
especially when you know you have an asset like that.
So yeah,
anyway,
they did an offering.
I just want to mention that since I was talking about that stock earlier.
Yeah.
Two cleanup pieces.
So the NASDAQ futures that night we were talking about last,
it was like August 1st, I think, August 5th, I'm sorry.
They were down 1,200.
Jag was spot on on that 1,200 at one point.
The peak to trough was 16% on the ES or S&P futures.
It was 9.99% peak to trough.
So you technical folks can qualify that or not.
We've got a few minutes here until the top of the hour.
We do have a hard cutoff at the top of the hour.
Last thing I just want to ask about,
we don't have to dive fully into this,
but Schumer just came out and made some comments here.
Jeffries did as well.
We met with Trump.
We have large differences.
It is up to Republicans if they want to shut down.
We made proposals.
It's the typical politics thing.
But we did see Calci has it at like a 75% probability of government shutdown right now.
The last one we saw that actually shut down, obviously,
we've heard this story over and over for many years, but the last actual shutdown was December
of 2018 for 35 days. Do any of you guys have concerns about this? Is it, well, as soon as
it gets resolved, just hammer the bye? Like what's, I don't know if anybody's getting takes around
what may come out of this government possible,
potential government shutdown?
It's a nothing burger.
This happens every year.
A lot of noise.
Nothing happens at the end.
They come back to the table.
They figure out a way.
Look, neither party can lose to the populace.
I mean, if you're going to force the federal employees out because you couldn't just put a damn signature on a piece of paper and say, okay, we're not going to shut the government down and now somebody has lost their job and whatnot.
I mean, these kind of things just, you know, can wreck your political career, essentially.
So nobody has ever any incentive, you know, to move forward with the government shutdown.
And yeah, and by the way, even when it has happened temporarily, there are mitigating
factors that are involved in which the Treasury has so much money, right, where they can continue to run operations
for a good amount of time,
whether it be several weeks or even months at a time
while they work out a detail.
So it's always a nothing burger.
And this would be the same way as always.
Yeah, that's, you know, we haven't even seen this.
How many headlines, to Jaguar's point here,
how many headlines or how many times it's been in the news
over the last six, seven years since the last time it did happen?
And it never happened any of those times.
I do remember at one point we went sideways.
I think it was like 2023. We went sideways for like a month waiting on them to figure it out
they figured it out market rips i don't stock talk did you have any thoughts around that government
shutdown yeah jake's right about that i mean if you if you've if any if you've been trading for
more than like i don't even want to say more than five years, even for you, even for the, those of you who started during COVID you've, how many times have you seen this?
Probably every year? No. And, and come on, look,
it doesn't matter who you voted for. Okay. Let's, let's get one thing straight.
Like nothing changes, nothing changes. Budgets go up.
Military budget goes up every year. The broader budget goes up every year the broader budget goes up every year
the money printer stays on growth over inflation nothing changes from regime to regime democrat
like nothing changes if you've been i mean i don't know even if you're in your 20s like
you've seen it for long enough nothing changes it's just one big train one big party one big system it's just like
you know growth over everything money printing over everything one regime they're not going to
shut down if they do shut down the government it'll be for a blip it's happened like what for
a couple hours it's happened a few times in history for a couple of days a couple like
okay it'll happen for a blip if it does if and it rarely, if ever, happens. So, yeah, it's not something you should worry about.
I'll say this again.
I think the biggest risk right now to this market,
and I think right now,
most people in this space care about the market, right?
I mean, yeah, you care about the economy too,
but that's really hard to talk about
on a person-to-person basis
because everyone's in different jobs,
in different parts of the economy,
in different states.
So, you know, hope everyone's doing well personally, but as far as the market goes, like, you know, the market is dependent
on a lot of things going right, but it usually goes up anyway. And the hard part about that
is if you're an onlooker, is there's so much fucking noise.
There's so much noise.
And you just have to find a way to navigate through it.
But I mean, it's going to take a lot of you time to distinguish what's important and what's worth paying attention to.
But I still believe the biggest risk in this market, more than the Fed, more than labor, more than anything, is that the next generation of AI products are underwhelming.
That, I think, is the biggest risk.
And, like, I think the race to real-world AI that we're seeing, like autonomous vehicles and humanoid robotics, I think that is part of an attempt by the industry to, like, put
AI in front of people so that they're convinced that it's working,
you know, because the chat GPT moment spurred what trillions of dollars in global investment.
Now, trillions of dollars in market capitalization on top of that investment,
right? So the multiple expansion, the inflow of investment, the market cap expansion,
that is just one thing.
Not to mention the actual dollars that have been invested in startups and have been spent on GPUs and so on and so forth.
So trillions and trillions of dollars, right, in just a couple of years.
And now we're staring down the barrel of a promise that I think will happen, but we don't know when. And so I think the next 10 years for
the market are really going to be a battle of investor patience on the ROI of AI and
the ability for these companies to rapidly deploy AI products that are useful.
Not cool. Like it actually annoyed me today, the headline that came out of, what was it from Wired?
That leaked today was that they're working on.
They've internally released a social media app amongst employees with Sora.
And do we have a hard cutoff, Imp?
Yes, we do right now.
Okay.
All right.
But yeah, we'll talk about that tomorrow.
But yeah, that annoyed me.
I don't think they should be focused on video generation. They should focus on useful products,
but we'll see. There was a headline, a follow-up headline on that just a second ago, actually,
as well. We'll hit that topic tomorrow, as well as anything else that pops up, of course. Appreciate
everyone tuning in. Thanks to Jaguar Logical hanging out with us here at the end make sure you follow all the speakers and our co-host of course Stock Talk and Evan should be co-host normally as make sure you
follow him and of course the host account here I'm jumping over to Wolf Financial for our stock
picks of the week show and we'll see we'll see how that goes what everyone's doing everyone was
very mixed last week kind of all over the board. It was a very tight race, one clear winner.
So tune in over there.
We'll have that, and we'll be back on this show tomorrow, 3 p.m. Eastern. Thank you.
