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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Sept. 22, 2025 Duration: 2:01:54Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic market landscape, major players like Apple and Nvidia are driving growth, while strategic partnerships and emerging trends signal a robust environment for crypto investments. Despite some declines in key stocks like Amazon, the overall sentiment remains bullish, with opportunities for yield and innovation in the tech and crypto sectors.
Full Transcription
What is up?
How are we doing?
Can I just get a quick mic check and then we we're good to get into it you're all good yeah it's that i wonder how does everyone hear that that noise
when people come up or do you think that's just us because we're like hosts or speakers or
something i don't know but it's definitely loud with that start there how are we doing
happy monday to everybody wonderful apple Apple day. Wonderful Apple day.
Vibes, sentiment, great. BMNR down though. So it's like, listen, a couple weeks ago,
this might've been a much greener day in my portfolio than it is today.
But Apple and Nvidia are ripping. I see we got Scott joining us up here.
Emp, what's standing out to you? know i i heard you saying this morning oh there's not much to
look at boring day from a from a trader perspective i don't know what it looked like
for you there but for me uh some of the larger names in my position big moves different directions
yeah i mean there's definitely uh some big mo today, right? One of the things that did stick out to me is,
you know, we're making new all-time highs,
pushing pretty much everything all-time high or indice-wise.
But the Mag 7 outside of, of course, you had Apple with a great move, obviously.
Tesla actually gave back a lot of its move.
And then NVIDIA with the midday move on that news headline with OpenAI.
The rest of the Mag 7 is red and has really not participated in this.
Some of your other big names like Palantir.
Yeah, but isn't that kind of a loser take in the nicest way possible?
That like, hey, you know, the Mag7 is red,
except for the ones that are really green.
No, so like the point being is like the argument a lot of times that,
well, the whole market is these seven stocks
and stuff like that,
which we know has been kind of disproven.
But here again today,
and I bet most of these traders
will probably agree with this take
that this is another healthy,
broadening out type of day.
You know, and I look at,
I look at a market continuing to push new highs
and there's, you know, different names moving around.
I mean, obviously Apple and NVIDIA,
two of the largest companies, help that.
But when you have kind of a sustained bid in the market throughout the day without the Mag7,
I mean, to me, that is a healthy kind of broadening out across the market.
And we started down, actually, in several places and have bounced back a little bit as far as like banks, energy, some of those things.
Gold also up 2% today. Crypto is a little bit as far as like banks, energy, some of those things. Gold also
up 2% today. Crypto is a little interesting though, which I know you're one of your positions
that you've spoke about on here, not having the best day, but it could be a decent little back
test if you look at it here coming down from a huge move that it made over the last couple of
weeks. But that's all I really have.
I mean, to me, at all-time highs, as a trader, there's not a whole lot that I do as a day trader.
I look more at the other things.
And Wolfie will jump up here in a minute.
We found a good opportunity in Nebius on Friday on our live stream.
And that one took off again today.
So there's opportunities in the
market, single stocks. I mean, obviously, if you're an Apple, if you're in NVIDIA and several
other names that are popping up today. But I think it's nice when you see new all-time highs
in the market and it's not just all MAG7 that's pushing the market. one thing i do want to say before we keep moving on
i do talk to people i have a bad tendency sometimes where the people i feel the most comfortable with i will talk a little bit of extra to and in public settings so i will say
that the me saying that type of stuff to amp also the host of the spaces who is the account
uh is is not coming from a it's coming from a piece of love and something else.
But still, don't disagree.
You get more of my inner thoughts that maybe
that is a little bit of a loser take, but I still appreciate
it in a nice way.
You didn't talk any shit to me when we
met a few weeks ago, so you don't like me? Is that what you're
saying?
Listen, maybe sometimes there's not stuff to talk shit about all right guys you guys can take it outside or in the to
the playground um uh i just want i want to interrupt i saw you uh i saw you tweet a little
bit about rivian too that's one we've been talking about uh on here as well um how are you doing sir
i know it's been a couple weeks weeks vacation. I don't know, but
these Mondays are always a great time. Let's kick into it. I don't know if there's anything
you wanted to start with there, but I do have a couple stuff that I want to ask you about.
I just think, again, like you said, the market's really rotating. I came in this morning,
all three of my accounts were lower. I have my swing account, my active account,
my options account, and I came in along a lot of Tesla. So that just shows you how spread out I was.
But if you kind of had a cooler head and said, all right, you know what? They had a $5 billion
buy into quad witching. They're just taking back 20 handles. It's not a big deal. And just managed
the positions. Today's now turning out to be a really good day.
Sometimes you come in, the futures are up 15 handles, you just trim stuff and it's easy.
But sometimes you make more money if you know what you're doing and know what's kind of cooking.
And so this morning, you know, like you said, you know, NBIS last week, I was buying that also around like 94-ish.
You know, it held at 86 to 88 area. and then this morning I had a little bit too much
But I was like, you know what? I'm not gonna get worried here
It was a 99 I bought a little bit more and then in the first, you know 15 minutes
It went to like 103 you able to trade around it and then hold the core which now it's at 107
You know, I had a lot of pony PO and why which is kind of-Y, which kind of to me was in the same group, but it's
not really where it had a major move last week.
I think we've spoken about it here on a bunch of Mondays, you know, around 14, 15, and it
got up to 20, 70, and I got a lot smaller on Friday than this morning was down a dollar.
So my subscribers like, you know, what's going on here?
I'm like, it went from 14 to almost 21.
So I wound up rolling into $22 calls and I bought
some more shares and here it is only down two cents. I'm like, okay. The market's like not
really being predatory, meaning where it's like trapping you. Even some of the AI type names that
are even considered lower tier, like BBAI. A bunch of us were buying it last week and this morning was down 40
cents which seemed like a lot but it really wasn't and now it's up 20 cents so you could have bought
it down 40 cents or 30 cents and traded around it and held it um and uh even some of the drone names
that we spoke about a week or so ago or two weeks ago or three weeks ago um UMAC, JLBY, even Joby.
Like, Joby hasn't been acting great, JLBY.
And this morning, you could have bought it down, you know, a dollar or more,
and it's only down 48 cents.
So things are just moving along.
But everything, again, isn't created equal.
Like, Meta's down nine.
There are a lot of people like, oh, my God, I thought it was acting better,
and it's down nine.
Microsoft, still kind of acting better, but not really where the action is. Amazon has been my
biggest loser, literally for two weeks. I've been buying calls out a week and it's just doing
nothing, but I'm not just focused there. Like some people, if you're just focused on Amazon and meta
and you're not in the groups that are moving, you're never going to fund your position. So I'm
kind of losing a little bit of money in Amazon but making money in so many other places that when amazon turns on
you know i'll be ready for it if it does at this point but same way with nvidia nvidia
you know was out of play since earnings it hit 184 and change and it's been consolidating this
morning i posted the chart i'm like hey nvidia is not really that bad you know as long as it
holds 173 ish which was this morning level which was above the two
day low from last week it's in the game to take out 180 and change and then maybe even the all
time high and all of a sudden the news came out started to go people like oh you see no video
it got it got like you start to flicker the vine came in and boom you could have been prepared
with that a little bit engaged like i was a little bit engaged. Like I was a little bit engaged.
I bought the 180 calls prior to that, thank goodness.
And now here you are, 183.67.
It feels like now, NVIDIA, that was just something that should have been on the C list or the B list the last two weeks has to be back to the A list.
A, B, C, D list, you know, all your 40 or 50 go-to names and rotating up and down your,
your, you know, your, your, your plate or your, on your, in your template, um, is what is really
making traders a lot of money. And it's, and if you're, if you're doing that, you know, you're
moving around, you're moving your feet, you're getting prepared. And like last week Rivian,
I think it was on Thursday and everyone was yelling at me because I went out with, you know,
Rivian, I was like, cause I was very yelling at me. I went out with Rivian
because I was very heavy in Tesla.
I'm like, Rivian looks pretty good.
I don't remember what day it was,
but it was really heavy.
I think maybe it was heavy on Friday.
It was two Fridays ago.
There was a headline.
It shook it down to $12.
Oh, that was a different one.
I'm talking about even Friday.
I'm more micro.
It almost looked like it was going to break $14,
I think, on Friday. Everyone was getting on me a little bit. I'm like micro. It almost looked like it was going to break 14, I think,
on Friday. And everyone was getting on me a little bit. I'm like, just look at the chart.
Nothing has really changed. It's just not ready yet. And then today, I said it to my guys at 1480. I'm like, it feels a little different that we're done with that stock. I'm like, why? Because you
tried it a bunch of times and it didn't work when you were ready for it. And now it's ready.
tried it a bunch of times and it didn't work when you were ready for it.
And now it's ready.
Like that's,
that's,
that's kind of like old school,
baby ish.
But anyway,
so for everyone who said that August was going to be seasonally bad or,
or week or September,
and now they're talking about Rosh Hashanah,
you know,
so Rosh Hashanah by Yom Kippur,
the spies are up three 30.
And actually,
again,
the spies are probably one of my bigger,
you know,
P and L takeaways.
Cause once we went green and pushed, I was like, all right, I covered my spy short in the hole of the premium at all.
I started selling premium again today thinking I wanted to be safe and now it's costing me money.
So anyway, there's a lot to manage for those who are kind of really just moving their feet. Even Wolf. Like I've been, we've been talking about like my guys love the Wolf, you know,
because it's just fun to say since like 10s.
And I thought today I was going to be in trouble there.
I was like, you know what?
Ethereum's a little weaker.
Bitcoin's a little weaker.
You know, this is a minor.
And P.S. it's now at the highs of the day, the highs of the week.
And you could have been a buyer of it below 10 and, you know, not 10, but below 11, 10.72 it hit and stayed the course.
And now it's at the highest of the day to manage.
So it's really trade management and mind management.
That's why I created Red Dog Mindset.
So we could start early, get ourselves primed, get ourselves feeling good, and not get full, I guess, hypnotized to everyone
out there who says that this isn't going to end well.
I'd love to hear, do you have a take on Ethereum here?
I was talking with Paper Gains a little earlier, one of our kind of swing train and chart friends
as well, and he was kind of saying Ethereum looks like it's kind of uh if it pulled back to that 4k level
that'd still be very healthy maybe even like uh you know there's some got a little uglier after
it but there's definitely some room for it to move down here call it the bart simpson or the
reverse bart simpson or something right now you got any thoughts on uh ethereum here itself i'm
at bm and r it's been holding up a little bit better maybe i want to see that pull back a tiny
bit too but yeah well here's the funny thing on on friday there was there was so much strength that
i was holding small ethereum and i didn't even like realize that it closed in the lows of the
day and that bitcoin closed in the lows of the day and it closed below the eight day actually
so sometimes i try and treat crypto just like a momentum, you know, high growth name.
And usually when it breaks the eight day or the 21 day, it gets smaller anyway.
So I actually got stopped out of Bitcoin.
And I held my Ethereum and I didn't realize how much I held.
So today Ethereum in my swing account is my biggest down P&L for today, but I'm not that big.
And then you look at the wedge on the daily.
It broke it to
the downside over the weekend where if you're trading etfs it's not like you could trade ethereum
um over the weekend if you're trading etfs and not ethereum itself but anyway the bottom line is
crypto is not supposed to be strong in september october has been created over the last decade
because usually september is bad for crypto but it was such a strong market that it was acting better than it probably should have. So it lulled some people to sleep.
So to me, I think, you know, they like to stop people out. They don't like to make it as easy
as possible. If you're not trading to get paid in September, it shouldn't really matter to you.
If you have it longer term, if you're not trying to be perfect, if you were trading for P&L,
kind of hurt, you know, hurt a little bit i i would say my my
thought without the market confirming it yet is that ethereum is going to be at highs of the year
come thanksgiving and bitcoin is probably going to be well through 123 up to 143 how it trades the
next week or two to to drive people a little nuts that i'm not sure so i'm going to be a little
smaller waiting for
the chart to let me know that hey the 50 day just held on ethereum or the 100 day because right now
it's below the 21 day and from what i've learned from anything is once something's below the 21 day
it could do whatever it wants so if you want to have an opinion that it's going to be at highs
come thanksgiving you better be able to handle whatever it throws at you the next two weeks. So, you know, to me, I do think that institutional interest is there.
People are buying Bitcoin, like it's getting adoption,
and Ethereum is, you know, second best because he needed something else.
So it's just a matter of being cute this next week or two
and finding, you know, where the low is
and how much you can handle looking for it
because a lot of things can happen.
Did I lose you guys?
I got taken down.
Yeah.
So I only,
I honestly didn't hear much of that,
but I, a good thing this space is recorded.
I'll go back and listen.
I'd love to hear your take on Apple as well. Oh, wait.
Was I not?
No, no.
You were good.
No, you were good.
He dropped.
He dropped.
Yeah, yeah.
That was me.
That was me.
Okay.
I talk to myself a lot at night, usually not during the day on the spaces.
No, I'm kidding.
Oh, listen.
Spaces always has problems. usually not during the day on the spaces I'm putting on so I'm looking at the
chart of a theorem you could see how it broke 4400 over the weekend which was a
rising ascending channel kind of here so I would think now it's below the 50 day
if it doesn't reclaim 4200 fast you would think 3900 ish is a prior pivot
area and then the hundred day and then the 200-day.
And if you look from where it came from when it ignited back on May 8th, it was only 1,900.
So for it to get to 3,900, which is pretty much still the top third of that range,
or if you want to say the breakout from July 9th, which was right around 2,600,
9th, which was right around $2,600,
this isn't
an unhealthy
retracement, except if you had too much
of it, it probably feels unhealthy
because you didn't realize that
this could move and it could
knock you around a little bit.
Scott, I'll bring
Logical into it. I know you and him have a good
thing in a second,
but I want to hear the take on Apple.
We had a good little trade on this one back.
I mean, it was like $50 ago,
but it was like a month ago or something,
like $200 to $215.
And I wonder if you're up a couple percentage points today,
$255, all-time highs for $260.
I mean, we're talking about this after the move,
or maybe we're not talking about this. No, no, no, we're not talking about it after the move. So maybe, or maybe we're not talking
about it. No, no, no. We're not talking about it after the move because we talked about,
we talked about before it happened. We were talking about, we had it a few times. We had
it actually on June 30th when it took out 204. And then again, that day or day right, right around
when it took out 217, I actually put it on as a power play. That's one of my products. And I just
took off the last third today just took
it off just because i wanted them to see that you know you could book something you could hold it for
a month or more um i personally you know again i'm going to be fully transparent i messed up this
trade personally because i i was talking to one or two of my institutional friends and he told me
that apple was huge for sale for
Friday. So I tried to be cute and I was, I got out of the way and I was like, you know, I'll wait
till the last two minutes of Friday's close. And PS the stock never went down. So I missed this last
portion of it, but my product was in it. But I, you know, I'm, I'm, I'm not crying because I have
like 20 longs on, but I, I missed this little tail end of apple because i thought you know my institutional
friends were were ahead of the you know the the quad witching and the selling balance which a lot
of you're not alone in that i saw i had two reports from two of the big funds as well saying
apple had 10 billion for sale going into the close so you're not the only one that had that
right so so i i don't know where they it off, but they must have paired it off somewhere,
you know, in underneath the surface, but it got me good, but at least then short it. Like I wasn't
trying to game it. I just thought I could get better prices and I just didn't make money.
There's one thing, you know, like I tell this to my guys a lot too, is if you sell something early,
it doesn't mean it's a short. And if you missed it, it doesn't mean it's a short. It just means you have to wait to a better entry that you can handle or whatnot.
But there are a lot of people caught short from probably Thursday if they started to try and short it ahead.
But I've seen that movie way too many times where I'm like, I'm not doing that.
I just didn't hold mine.
I had great options for this week, too.
I had the 241s my
goodness but anyway i'm not gonna cry move on so how you what so what um so what are you doing
over there i feel like you know this is your market now like you know for logical like you
have these second third tier stocks they're all moving well they're trading great technically you
probably got in there before the technical start to even act better and probably having yourself a nice little run oh scott i'm having
a wonderful time it's a great market for me uh i just hit a new all-time high on the portfolio
up 133 year-to-date very very nice um you, about to crack one 30. Let's go. It just, yeah. Thank you.
It's just patience, picking the right spots, being there. Um, obviously the bios are something I've
been pounding the table on nonstop. Uh, and you know, if you've been listening to the show for
the last year, yeah, I've been saying that today XBI up another 1.95% compared to, you know,
spy up 50 bips or so.
Yeah, that's three to four times the performance today.
IWM also really strong.
Look at that.
New highs a day, you know, about to close at the highs of the day.
Went from red to green this morning, you know, above average volume.
Now, I don't like that crappy index but
when that thing is doing stuff like that the other good holdings are basically doing cartwheels
so um it's a good time it's a fun time um let's see let's go down the list
this isn't really a small cap uh teradyne ter T-E-R, up 12% today on an upgrade. I've been
long those calls for a while. I mentioned on these spaces a while ago that they have this
kind of rumored partnership with Amazon back when the stock was at $90. Now it's sitting at $134.
Excellent move. I've ridden the whole thing with calls. So that's been really nice.
I've been long Amcor with stock talk you know i definitely relied on
his uh conviction there and i'm glad i took that entire position in june call that thing is zooming
up another five percent today uh galaxy digital you know we talk about the uh crypto names i i
actually i'm not really too scared about like this ethereum shakeout look this is the kind of market where a name like ethereum is gonna do great um and galaxy has a great benefit because it's not just a crypto exposure it's a
data center exposure so after we got that news from nebius uh on their you know data center deal
with microsoft and we saw the oracle uh the OpenAI partnership. Obviously, the data center
stuff are going to catch a second tailwind. And so, you know, I think Galaxy fit perfectly. And
you're seeing a lot of this bullish call flow on CoreWeave. Galaxy has partnered with CoreWeave
to lease out their, you know, Helios data center, at least 800 megawatts of it, which is a lot.
That's going to bring a ton of income for Galaxy Digital.
So I think that's been pretty underappreciated as a data center play.
I think people have just been looking at Galaxy as a crypto play.
Yeah, but I think data center is actually going to be a much more meaningful piece of
that revenue for them.
Can I ask you a question on that real quick?
Go ahead, brother.
Is that kind of like is that kind of like I R E N because I feel like that turned into a data center slash you know a minor play
also are a lot of guys like wait I can't be so you know in I R E N and they didn't understand
that it was a data center play also besides mining where crypto was kind of weak so why would it go
so well and that's what added to I think some shorts there which is why that move was so fast and furious yeah i would say yes um i think that iron has gotten a lot more
uh retail hype along with cypher i mean you have champions of the stock like eric jackson
um but i think from a business standpoint galaxy is actually a far better business than those two
i don't buy the whole uh you know iron bitcoin mining that oh you get to have higher
profit margins uh than your peers you're you're a commodity business i don't believe that stuff
um i think that you know galaxy is a more resilient business because it has that crypto
side of the business where um they have a much more um i i guess well-rounded treasury filled with digital assets as well as it you know they have their
what is it called they have a exchange business crypto exchange business so they have like more
revenue segments that are in my view higher revenue higher margin and then you add on this
data center which they have basically the largest data center uh it's 2.7 terawatts
that they're trying to build out they basically have the capacity they're just trying to get more
of the energy uh contracted out for that data center if so i mean because they've only basically
leased out 800 megawatts of that that's what they've been approved on the energy side but
they're trying to get another 1.9 terawatts of energy uh confirmed and again that deal is already
inked with CoreWeave.
So, you know, I think while you're sitting around waiting to see is Iron or Cypher going
to get that next big data center deal, the truth is that Galaxy already has that deal
and it's with CoreWeave.
And again, that stock is really resilient.
Go look at the price action today.
It went from the bottom left to top right, red to green.
So really resilient stock.
And I think, you know obviously with ethereum and whatnot
and crypto kind of struggling a little bit coinbase is a lot more cryptos focused but i think that
that chart still looks pretty good it poked its head into that gap um and i'm a believer that you
know crypto will get going again and you know going this could be a good play from there
start taking a position there there's a lot of good names um rubric red
to green today as well uh it's a cyber security name a lot of these software names uh starting
to really wake up uh yeah i think snowflake looks good it poked its head out above the downtrend last
week i i got long again digital ocean relentless going green after green. Let's see, Evolve Technology, EVLV is another small cap tech play.
I'm seeing that April $9 calls are getting slammed right now.
I've been long that one since $3.50, now sitting at $8.24.
I want to add to this one.
I've foolishly trimmed it as it ran a lot from my cost basis.
There's a lot of names on my list in my portfolio
that I feel like I blundered by trimming the exposure.
You never go broke taking profits
and that's never a bad thing.
But some of these names,
clearly they look like they're going to continue
and go a lot higher over time.
Now let's make it over to the bios.
Nectar, I've been talking about on these spaces a lot. The bull case there just gets
stronger and stronger. This thing is at $58 now. It's a 20% position for me. I never size anything
that big, but yeah, this one just continues to win. And you had opportunities to buy this thing
at $23 just a few weeks ago after they reported their stellar data.
You had like weeks of buying it in the low to mid-20s.
And now it's at $58 just a few weeks later.
And the story just keeps getting better here.
I saw that over the weekend,
they're basically suing Eli Lilly
and hoping for a couple hundred dollars settlement.
And Lilly tried some moves where they
countersued and over the weekend, they actually dropped their countersue. So I think they're
probably going to arrive at some sort of settlement. But yeah, I mean, right now,
the three, four biggest bio positions that I have are, in my view, very strong M&A candidates.
So I still think that Nectar is very undervalued from an M&A perspective.
I still think Abivax, ABVX is very undervalued.
Look at this CDTX right now, up 8.6% today.
If you look at what this stock is doing today,
it went from flat to plus 8.5% today.
It's my second largest position around 12, 13%.
ZVRA, this one really hasn't run a lot yet. Last week, I saw them sell the $5 puts, buy the nine.
They did basically a bullish risk reversal. They sold the five puts. They bought the 9.14 call
spreads. It seems there was some recent insider buying there
the stock's down a good amount um and you know they have really strong revenues and it does seem
like this is kind of a high floor low ceiling stock so maybe you know from the upside potential
not going to be like a crazy crazy winner but um you know probabilities and risk adjusted return looks very strong at ZBRA.
So, yeah, so, you know, four of my bios, especially like my top positions are, you know, Nectar, CDTX, ABVX, ZBRA.
These things are just ripping every day.
And, you know, today you had a buyout.
Was it Pfizer buying out M mtsr obesity drug um so there's just been a ton of m&a in this sector and that's kind of what i've been hoping on and
it's a record year um yeah just just really happy to see all this kind of coming together all the
different pieces and oh there's one i'll mention And this is me completely doing a complete YOLO here. Actually,
there's two more names. Sorry, let me just say this one's a complete YOLO. It is an Eric Jackson
name, BTQ Technologies Corp. This is still listed on the OTC. So obviously, it's much higher risk.
But I saw a post today from the company saying they're uplifting to the NASDAQ on Friday.
So I took a small like 3% position there because I figure, know there's a lot of people probably they're gonna gamble on this sort
of thing and so i'm gonna go ahead and say that this is the complete yolo and i don't know what
will happen so i'm not sizing it up but you know i i figure you know once this gets listed to the
nasdaq it could potentially do you know ridiculous meme like things uh so that yeah that's btq um lastly i like the action today in gap gap
that's sitting on all these moving averages tried to shake people out below the 50 sma 50 ema today
uh reek bounce reclaim those bounced reclaim the 200 sma and now it's at the highs of the day
up on the day uh so I thought that that was pretty good
action. If you look at the social sentiment for Gap brands, specifically Gap, because they also
own Old Navy and Banana Republic. I know this isn't probably the super exciting AI name, but
they had a recent cat's eye commercial for the Gap brands.
And that thing has like 80, I don't know what it was,
like 80 billion impressions or something on social.
Just an insane moment.
So like, yeah, just a huge,
I don't know if that was the right number,
it was 8 billion or whatever it was,
but it was just massive.
And it was bigger than like the Sydney Sweeney, uh, AEO moment. Um, the difference is here that gap stores make up 23%
of the stores, uh, of the entire gap stock. Cause they also own old Navy and banana public. So it's
not exactly a pure play, but if you like, cause AEO is a pure play on American Eagle outfitters.
Yeah. The, um, yeah, so it's not a pure play,
but the stock trades at like seven times earnings.
So, you know, I think risk reward looks pretty damn good.
And I think that we should probably see
some sort of uptick on the next earnings
because they're growing a lot on their socials
in terms of followers.
And yeah, I think it's been shaking people out,
but I eventually assume that, you know, this will work itself out yeah that's it for today I like it so
gap itself they did it actually did a red dog reversal today you turn my GAP
yep yeah when one below Friday's low but of 22 24 made a little bottom tail
reclaimed it and pulled in from 24.
Probably a really good entry.
Plus, it's back to school.
You figure a lot of people went out and bought some clothing and stuff for their kids and this and that.
So probably not a bad spot.
I like that idea.
Plus, I don't know.
I'm a very big garpy, small cap guy.
And from a valuation standpoint, it's really cheap.
And then so you don't need a lot to go right from this valuation.
It's extremely cheap.
So and then you see if you look up like some of these people on Twitter are pretty, you know, these retail investors are pretty savvy.
And they're like showing like these Google trends.
And it's like gap denim is like hitting like multi-year highs, all-time highs, et cetera.
So, you know, there's got to be some read through there.
Is there a date that it's supposed to have retail sales
where people will get some clarity or when's their earnings?
Yeah, it's...
I'm being a little...
The earnings are in November.
So there's nothing...
It's going to be kind of...
But I just imagine...
And again, the stock's been pretty weak these last couple of days.
But I just imagine that everybody knows the second-order data.
So unless I'm blatantly missing something, I feel like at some point that thing is going to get priced in
for it. I don't know. But I'm willing to take a stab on it for sure. All right. I'm going to do,
I'm going to buy some options with you. Let's see. Yeah, I'm in the January. So let's see what
happens. I won't go out to January. I'll probably go out October like 17 and do maybe like the $23 calls.
Which ones did you do?
I'm in the 23s for January, so a lot more conservative.
I have decent size on them.
But at the same time, I want to make sure that I capture the earnings.
Right, right.
That's why I'm going to January.
Gotcha.
And also, I don't want to realize any more gains this year.
And I don't want to exercise those calls, so I want them to go out to next year.
That was my thought.
Oh, you poor baby.
Too many gains this year.
It's a little flex.
Yeah, my bad.
There you go.
That's all right.
That's your lad.
You worked for him.
All right, cool.
Yeah.
So here we are again, another all-time high.
Just like that.
They were supposed to sell Rosh Hashanah today. It's the same way they were supposed to sell Apple at $3.50 on Friday.
And guess what? Sometimes it doesn't go that way. Or you can't listen to old live styles.
I mean, are you kidding me? How many people told you that seasonality of September? I heard you
saying that before. It's ridiculous. Just play the charts.
Just play the price action.
The price action doesn't work out.
You can always de-risk.
And people who just try to forecast and project all sorts of things,
it doesn't have to work out.
That's the beauty of statistics, right?
When you flip a coin, it's the same odds every time.
That's true.
That's true.
All right, good.
Let's see, does anyone else, where's the options, Mike?
Is he around?
Hey, Scott, how are you, man?
Good, how are you doing?
I'm good, thanks.
You know, this market is just incredibly complacent.
Nothing bothers this thing at all. I had an ascending channel drone on the spy and the last three sessions we banged our head against it.
And today we came up, hit it around 11 o'clock, pulled back for about a half an hour and then just blew right through it.
And now like five handles above. It's like, OK, the two handles above.
It's like, yep, we're just going to keep going.
I was lucky enough to jump on apple
calls this morning made nice money um and then jump back on them still in some now holding them
for overnight because i mean this market just likes to run names to all-time highs right so
what why wouldn't apple jump up to that 260 area at this point and get the all-time high
right uh nvidia on that news i don't know i didn't think it was the biggest news in the world, but Marcus looking for things to do. So here that one's at an all time high. Oracle pushing back up. Hood another new all time high just about 15, 20 minutes ago. And they have their names they like and they're rotating them. Right. And that's the good news. They're giving you chances to rotate around a little bit if you're paying attention every day, whether to the setups and the charts, the volume on them, or just the news or the option flow.
I mean, for me today, I mean, Apple was just smothered and called buying like we haven't seen it forever.
That was just a dead giveaway.
And then NVIDIA wasn't until that news broke at lunchtime and unfortunately wasn't at my desk.
And after that, it had like 20 call alerts on it.
It was just insane.
What's the majority of the calls being
bought up? Are they for like 190s for this Friday? If it takes out 184.55 with authority,
that's probably where it's going to be? Or is it going out a few weeks?
They were all almost entirely in the weeklies. And that seems to be the MO of this market right
now when you get the momentum flow, it's in the weeklies. We're seeing some for the 195s for next week. I'm sorry,
for October 3rd. Yeah, for next Friday. For next week, I saw a couple of those out there.
But the majority of them were for weeklies. Let me pull them up here. We had the October 185s,
next week's 185s, weekly 190s, October 190s, 177 50s for this week,
where a lot of them like that came in.
So mixed.
190 was a very popular strike across multiple time frames.
Right.
Makes sense.
Which makes sense.
If it gets above 184.50 and closes above it,
then the Bears have nothing to stand on.
Today they kind of rejected it right there.
So they could be like, hey, it's a double top,
which it's probably not.
But at least they suffocated that around 1 o'clock, but, uh, you do close above that.
You probably blow on this thing and it's one 90.
I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if it opened up above one 90,
the way this market likes to gap things up these days on some of these names.
Um, you're not alone on Amazon. I'm sitting in stock. Just, uh, you know,
I I'm still not sure why I got hit so hard on the Oracle news earnings. I just don't see how Oracle really affects them. Oracle's taking overflow. They're not going to be stealing any of Amazon's business, their AWS business, but they just don't want it right now. Uh, so I'm happy to sit in stock. Um, but yeah, they just, they just don't want it for whatever reason. It feels like Amazon, you look at the chart, it's a fine, up five years or whatever over the last couple of years.
It feels like Amazon's always in this thing.
They're building something huge.
We all know they have the future.
It's this big opportunity.
But the stock just does okay when you compare it to the rest of the market.
Amazon has 100% flown under the radar for the last couple of years.
Maybe a year or two but you also have the dynamics where you have jeff and you have mckenzie they
own 19 of the float and all they are is net sellers so every time there's a great earnings report
that they're they're you know filing they're selling and filing selling and filing and by
the time they're done momentum's gone and people have moved on. Whereas, you know, what really got Tesla going was, you know, Elon bought, you know,
X amount of shares in the open market. Like if all of a sudden Jeff came out and bought,
you know, a billion shares in the open market or whatever it is and took two years off from
selling, he'd be able to sell this thing at 400. You know, somebody should be like,
hey, buddy, you know, let's take a little break here.
You know, and then Tesla today was another nice trader early and it's faded, gave it all back.
But it was up on just because Trump and and Musk sat next to each other.
OK, that's not really a reason to tee up, you know, OK, I'll make money on it and then I'll get out of it.
But yeah, technically, it's been better.
Like, it's just a lot of things you know that was one
negative that they that had over its head that people were short but yeah i get it and then and
then when the nvidia news came out kind of like it sucked the air out of a lot of things just
because you know everyone was so focused there and everything started to drift midday and then
started to like kind of resume again yeah and nbis missed today. By the way, Disney says Jimmy Kimmel
will return to the air
on Tuesday. And I was also
going to say that that just came out.
Tesla also was approved to start testing
its full self-driving in Arizona
over the weekend without a safety monitor.
Or with a safety monitor, sorry.
With a safety monitor.
Yeah, but it's a bull market.
It's a relentless bull market at this point. I mean, I know we'd all love to see a nice little pullback, but it's a bull market. It's a relentless bull market at this point.
I mean, I know we'd all love to see a nice little pullback,
but this market doesn't want to give one.
It doesn't even want to give an inch.
So you just kind of have to just look for things to do,
and I've stopped selling any of my longer-term stuff at this point
because I just don't want to get any less exposed than I already am.
I'll be honest.
At this point, if it's not going to pull in, I like this rotation.
When it does pull back and gets below the 21 day I'd almost like it to then stay below it for a
day or so and if you if we have our risk reduced like kind of reward us for bringing stuff down
instead of feeling like a jerk two days later when everything just continues to go you know
what I'm saying like today felt like okay um they gave you a chance if you were
too overexposed from Friday to trade around things but the one or two times when a look
technically a little challenge the leaders weren't acting great and we closed below the eighth day
they gave you one follow through down day where you had a big gap it came off the lows in the
first hour and then that was it then it was just back and then no and then you gapped up the next
day yeah trapping anybody who was short.
And it was just – that's it.
I mean, to your point, you can't get more than – you can't really get a move below the 21 day.
We've had one close under the 21 day since April, and that was August 1st.
That's just insane.
Actually, I think two, but I hear you.
Yeah.
But, yeah, I was there too.
I didn't really get short, but I put some hedges on.
I tried to feel smart.
I sold some strength. I got stopped out of some things. I'm like, all right, let me take a little rest.
And then two days later, you had to be back in there engaging and buying. But again, one of these
times, it's going to close below it, stay below it, and someone's going to have a false sense
of security. And then you're going to get a move to the 50, the 100-day, the 200-day. And when the
market's ready for that, well, I guess we'll know when.
Just got to continue to obey momentum
rules, moving average rules,
tier size rules, time frame rules,
and then they're the ones that keep you
safe. And if you make a little less, but reducing
on some days that feel like you shouldn't,
you don't have to, then it'll save you another
time.
I mean, we may have to call
April the great pullback of
2025.
The great correction. Yeah. It was pretty fast and furious. Well, the same thing happened
during the pandemic. You had a fast and furious pandemic that, I mean, pullback 30% or whatever
it was. And then you had this snapback that was so strong. And then I feel like for the next nine months,
all everyone did is try and call a top into resistance and it just kept
grinding higher.
So I mean,
that's like,
that's just the dynamic,
I guess.
Things move faster than they,
than they used to.
I agree.
I saw Brian London meet there for a second too.
Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
I was enjoying the conversation between Scott and Mike as always.
Yeah, this is – Mike, you said it a couple weeks ago.
This market is just melting up, right?
And it just keeps going up and up and up.
And now it's rotating to what's hot for a week or week and a half.
Then it cools down.
It rotates to something else. It's giving us opportunities's hot for a week or week and a half. Then it cools down. It rotates to something else.
It's giving us opportunities all over the place.
One of the things that I pointed out to my subscribers on Friday is a stock called Voozie.
Today it's up 30%.
These are normally what I would consider junkie stocks.
But because I don't pay attention to fundamentals, I look at the technicals.
They come up on my radar. So, you know, last week it was Oklo or Oklo, which I still don't know how to say the name.
No sales, no revenue, none on the on the future docket, but just went through the roof last week. Another one that's not really in that same category,
but we talked about this last week with Stock Talk, is ASTS, which is looking really good.
And one of the things that you'll learn if you trade for a while is when a stock doesn't do
something you think it's supposed to do or that you think it will do from a technical standpoint,
think it's supposed to do or that you think it will do from a technical standpoint, sometimes
it will do something exactly the opposite. So we saw ASTS break down in early September,
and it started to form like this little bear flag between maybe like the 9th and the 12th, right?
And so you'd think, okay, it's going to break that bear flag and go down. Instead, it gapped up,
and it gapped up and it held right at this little gap
resistance. And I remember because I happened to be at a craft beer bar here in Southern California
with a buddy and I was on my phone and I just basically traced out a little pattern and I said,
look, if we get back in this gap, we could really reverse and move fast in the opposite direction.
I tweeted it out and now we're almost
at 49. We just crossed the all-time high VWAP today. So sometimes, you know, sometimes signal
is something you see, but also sometimes signal is something that doesn't happen.
Another name that I'm kind of just putting my toe in, which is a, it's a super hated name,
is Kava. And the reason that I'm in that is because last week we had DRI,
which was Darden, really tank.
But Kava didn't move lower, and neither did CMG.
And so the idea there is, why didn't they move lower
when the other restaurant, the big restaurant names,
well, maybe it's because they've been ahead of the curve
and the bottom is already in now. I could be wrong, and I know where I'll be out, but sometimes it's not what you see, it's what you don't see.
back to the 50 and hopefully holds, but maybe goes lower. I think a lot of people that think
that they are really good at trading and investing in the last year or two are going to find out that
they've just been at the benefit of a strong market. And that's okay. That happens to all
of us. It's happened to me numerous times in the last 40 years. But you can maybe save yourself
some trouble now if you start looking at your methodology and just see why are you in stocks?
Are there real reasons that you're in them?
Are there technical spots where you know you'll be wrong?
Are you managing your risk?
Because if 100 people get blown out when the market does pull back to the 50, try to be the 10 or 15 that don't, that plan ahead.
Sometimes when times are good, we forget to look at that stuff, the risk parameters.
But I think that's always a good thing to keep front and center. I agree. I agree. If you get out of
things when they break the 8 and 21, you got to keep getting out of them because one time it's
going to save your tush, whereas you might have to buy them back higher, but at least when you get
into that corrective phase, you're out of the way, and you're prudent versus just being high-strung, just anticipating.
No, anticipating is good, but don't start breaking your rules because your rules cost you a little bit of money but kept you in the game for 30, 40 years.
Sometimes it costs you a little bit of money, but you're still making money, but you're making less, and then sometimes it saves you.
So the rules are there for a reason.
If you've been around as long as you and me and Mike and some others have, you know that buy every dip works every time until the last time, and then that's when your account blows up.
Yes.
BTFD.
That's right.
BTFD remember BTFD baby oh you know I just want to add on to what Brian was saying too
is like there are a lot of names to own in this market
and I know StockDoc mentions this too
is like why would you own the weak stuff
if something starts breaking down or it's just not participating in this rally, it's
not the stock to own.
Yeah, that's all I'll say is like, I cut stocks all the time.
Today, I added a stock at the 50 EMA and then it dumped midday and lost it.
And I was just like, yeah, I don't need to own this thing.
See you later.
And then I just want to rotate my exposure to something else.
Right.
You're like, if the spot is above the eight day, why the hell are we buying something at the 50 day you know i mean
it's been weaker and it's been lagging yes some sometimes every week there's a new little flavor
and you know we've seen that in the max sevens we've seen it we've seen like in the beginning
of the year when microsoft and mic could do no wrong and then post earnings they've been sold
down we saw when apple could do no right you know two months ago and then we've seen when
you know when tesla was it chopping a range before it goes.
So we'll know when it goes.
So we need to like kind of really try and anticipate, especially when it's not giving any signals yet.
I mean, there's been a lot of noise on the daily charts this year.
And I think, you know, usually when you get follow through rallies, like we had a ripper of a year last year, and then we had another ripper of a year this year. And when you get followed through rallies with the sort of volatility we've had, I think the daily charts are noisy. Like they just are. And like, I'm with you, Scott, on sticking to your rules. I mean, I've, you know, I've been training for a little over 12 years now. And, you know, I'm not as long as you or not as long as Brian.
But in that time, I've noticed that a lot of traders, and I'll put that in quotation marks, get shaken out of the best stocks because they have an overt, strict focus on the daily charts and in this kind of market you know if
you're if you're using like the 21 daily ema as your max point of risk in this kind of market you
won't even be able to hold the best momentum names let alone the compounders i mean even the
best momentum names will shake you out with with that sort of barometer for me at least one thing
that's helped this year tremendously with the market leading names like centrist energy, which I've held all year long,
haven't sold a single share. It's up like a stock just keeps going up. Uh, nebbi is same thing.
Like these stocks, the reason I've been able to stay in them and not be shaken out of them is
because I've just been focused on the weekly charts. You focus on the weekly charts on these
things and they haven't even attempted to break structure.
Right. So I think zooming out a little bit in a market environment, even if you get a more comprehensive picture of the strength behind
some of these stocks. That's been helpful to me, at least, to stay in names this year.
You bring up a great point, and this is something that I think is key to longevity in the market,
is you have a set of rules and you have a methodology and a risk-based methodology,
but you also have to know when to adapt it, when to change it, when to tweak it.
I'll give you a great example, right?
Anybody that's ever picked up a technical analysis book can see where a double bottom
is on a chart.
And so what will happen is, let's say the bottom is $20.
And so what they'll do is they'll put a stop just below it, right?
1975 or 1950.
And then their stop will get run, they'll get knocked out,
and then the stock will reverse either intraday or the next day. And of course, they always say,
oh, they ran my stops. They ran my 100 shares or 500 shares. They didn't run your 500 shares.
They ran everybody else that's putting their stops to that obvious place. So what you have to do is
you have to adapt, right? So you can do this by scaling in, by scaling out,
by lowering your position so you can have a wider range that you can still stay in the game. You can
do what you talked about using weekly charts. And that I think is the little edge that separates
decent or good traders from really, really profitable traders over the long term. So
I totally agree with you. I think
you have a base framework, but you have to know how to be flexible. And to me, it's all about
sizing and time, right? Taking some time to get into a position to build it at smart points and
also not getting too big too quick. One of the biggest, I think it's Howard Marks says,
Too quick. You know, one of the biggest, I think it's Howard Marks says, the worst sin in the market is selling at the bottom.
And you usually sell at the bottom because your size is too big and you can't handle the move.
And that's usually when the market returns.
Right. Well, if you start too early by the time, you know, it's ready to reverse.
You've definitely taken too much pain and you didn't have great price points.
So 100%. And I also I agree with zooming out also out also you know where you want to look at the weekly
chart and you want to make sure that bigger trends are intact are you not being too micro
are you not being shaken out are you the guy that you know is the retail getting stopped
out before it gets reclaimed so there's all like you know there's just a ton of things
to consider um as you trade and play and are involved.
I might say play this game because it's not a game.
This is life.
You know, people make a living trading.
People need to make money to pay their rent, their bills.
People, you know, invest for their retirement and their olden age.
So it's really it's a process across the board, multiple different ways.
And everyone's is a little bit different because everyone has a little bit of a different personality.
But just so you know, some of the best stocks since May did not really get below the 21 day.
So I would say for those who get paid monthly or quarterly, like maybe the eight day is too tight.
But if you look at something like IREN, it hasn't touched a 21 day in like three months.
That's how strong that name has been.
So if you need to be in a strong name, you know, that's acting special,
that there's names that have different personalities.
That's been really strong.
NBIS, yes, that one you had to give to like the 21 day or a little bit more
because, again, it's, you know, a little.
With NBIS, Scottott the funny thing is the day
it gave up the 21 ema was the day before the microsoft deal the day before geez yeah i was
like not like not like oh it gave up the 21 ema and then trended down and then had a microsoft
deal two weeks later it gave up the 21 ema on september 8th going into that weekend and then
got the microsoft deal and the stock went up 50%.
So it's like, I mean, look at LEU, right?
I'm only bringing up Nebius and LEU because these have been my two biggest positions all
year.
But look at LEU, right?
LEU ran from 96, that's where we entered back in May, all the way up to 270.
Then in late August, LEU fell from 265 to 160, below the 9, 21, and 50 days.
Guess what?
That was the bottom.
If you zoomed out on the weekly chart.
Wait, wait, hold on a sec.
Just hold on a sec, because you can see.
So I see you're topping until on August 6th.
Technically, that would have been a kind of little bit of a signal to got loose and wide,
be a little careful.
And then it went down for like, I don't think active traders could have sat in that through
the gap down through the 50 day. And then you had a red dog. I hate to call
it my own name, but he had a red dog reversal on August 20th. You could have been kind of out of
the way here at 221. And if you are very active and very specific, you could have a buyer again
at 164 and not sat there for 40 points. If you trade for living. Of course, I'm not saying that
they should have sat there for 40 points. I'm for living course i'm not saying that they should have sat there for 40 points i'm not saying like day traders should have sat through that i'm just
saying like for people who had conviction in these names these were fake outs that were if you zoomed
out a little bit pretty easy to monitor structure on right like that 162 bottom was the 21 week ema
almost to the penny and it was also the 100 day on the daily. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. I mean, so you don't,
what I'm saying is, is that you don't have to like, you know, in my view, even if you are
paying yourself in the short term, you don't have to view all of these, all this daily action as
signal. In fact, I think most of it's noise, you know, in these market leading names, I think a
lot of the daily action is just frankly noise. And you can hold these names through two X's, three X's this year in just a matter of months,
just by paying a little more attention to the higher timeframes, at least for swing traders
or positional traders like me, that's been, you know, an easy recipe for success.
So let me ask a question on your swing trade. Do you pay yourself monthly or quarterly,
or do you do it on the year or do you not feel like I don't, I don't think about it like paying
myself monthly or quarterly.
I think about it in terms of when positions are ready to be unwound.
And that depends from position to position.
But I don't have like a strict, I'm going to pay myself this quarter,
pay myself this year.
No, I don't think about it that way.
Well, that's a luxury.
Even for me as somebody who's –
That's a luxury you have.
There are traders who have been trading for one fixed basis to you know live off of i i get that
those people are operating a lot differently than me and probably have nothing and similar to my
strategy um but yeah for those people i i'm generally not even speaking to those people
what i'm kind of sharing my stuff because that's not it.
No, but your stuff is good because they can evolve into you after a decade or 12 years of being in the market.
You know, everything evolves and you can take more pain.
You can put longer term time frames once you have money in the bank and once you're not worried about paying your mortgage or your car.
There's a cost basis is matter a lot, too. Right. Like, you know, in markets, in extended bull markets, I think sometimes the difference between super performers and people that just do OK are is the difference between the people that are constantly chasing the increment, like chasing the market at the margin versus the people who were positioned in high conviction names in the very early parts of the bull market who are up four or five hundred percent on those names.
There's a whole process.
And cost basis does matter a lot, too, right?
It's easy to hold that.
No, no, I get it.
You listen to like logical like two months ago when everyone was pulling their hair out in the XBI.
He had a, you know, he had a very extensive knowledge base.
So he was positioning while people were pulling their hair out.
And which is one way to do it because that's how you can get your size.
And then when finally the technicals triggered and then you could add your
tier size and that's when like the momentum's there but they're paying up a little bit more
than he did because he was there when you know but it's also you could have been there for two years
before it finally did but then that's not your time then that doesn't matter for generating
cash flow then it's just all different.
But yeah.
Yeah, of course.
If you're waiting for a trade to pan out for two years, I don't even consider that a win.
You know, that's a huge opportunity cost you're living on the table.
I agree.
Stocks have to perform relatively quickly from you getting positioned in them as a function of opportunity cost.
So I'm with you on that.
I don't let stocks consolidate for two years for what it's worth.
But yeah.
Right.
No, no.
But you see when it's almost.
Look how long Tesla consolidated before it finally broke above 355.
You know, that's.
And then you're talking about 80 points in two weeks.
Do you position in there for the three months or do you wait for the real breakout with real volume when it gets in motion?
So it's different games.
And I think one of the things we forget is that, because we all come on here,
we talk mostly what we do as a core part of our trading,
but you can do multiple things at the same time.
I mean, I've got long-term accounts. Yeah, 100%.
Yeah, so I've got stocks that I expect them to move in the next one to three days, right?
But I also have stocks that I'm willing to take a larger position over time.
And look, at the risk of sounding like I'm kissing your ass, Doc Talk, I will admit, I've been doing this a long time and I tend to get kind of in my own groove.
Like this is how I do it.
I know how I do it.
I try to listen to other ideas and other
people. But I have to say, I'll be honest, the last two years, you're probably one of the people
that has opened my eyes most to different names, different ways of approaching them.
And I think that's the value of spaces and the value. A lot of people say social media is a bad
force, and it is in some ways. But I think one of the great benefits is, you know, 40 years ago, 30 years ago, 20 years ago, we didn't have these resources.
There were no communities where you could get different ideas and different viewpoints and different styles that you could evaluate and say, can I use part of this and what I do?
So I'm very grateful for these spaces and for these communities.
I think we can all learn, you know, something from each other.
Yeah, I've learned a lot from you and from all the people on this panel. So
I appreciate that. You know, it just real quickly, just because the markets like it's like you do a
thousand percent, like, look again, let's look at NBIS. You know, you had that big gap up, you know,
for three, four days approved, it could hold that 86 to 88. So one of the frameworks was you could
be long, it was like 90 versus that 86 gap.
Because if it holds it, it shows power, it shows strength.
That means it's going to get above 100 a lot faster.
Then if it filled the gap, we did like what Intel is doing,
where it's like slowly bleeding into the gap and can do whatever.
So one trade is you're buying it around 91 versus the 86, 88.
That's something that I really never did until like a year ago and then there's
another trade when it finally got above 94 so that was another trade and then there was the
whole momentum trade game where there are some people who wouldn't touch that trade until today
when it went over 150 so if you can catch all three of those trades within a week and a half
you're making real money versus you know some scalps so the the
key to this market is you can learn all three ways and then combine all three ways when you're ready
so that's which is great and it's again you have spaces like this and you listen to every
different personality like people used to watch when i was on cnbc back in 2007 2008 you know
i'd be on for three minutes and i said nothing important ever it was it was sound, you know, I'd be on for three minutes. I said, nothing important ever. It was, it was sound bites. You know, what could you learn? You know, when you see people on TV, it's like,
that's why I turn the TVs off. Like there, there are great forums like this, where you have people
teaching and going over things and really, you know, adding value versus back in the day,
there was none of this. And you had to see your favorite person on TV for two minutes when
Mark Haynes used to ask stupid questions, you know,
to try and stump you.
But anyway, so things have evolved well.
So for everyone who says that everything is so bad, it's not so bad.
It's, you know, you got to be glass half full and make sure, you know,
it's good because there's a lot of good out there too
and a lot of people that do try and help degrade a good that aren't robots.
You know, like on Twitter, every time you send a tweet there's
up 40 tweets attached to it it's getting that's getting really it's a you know i'm i don't get
into that but that's such a pain in the ass i want to say i don't know if this is going to be it but
maybe a couple weeks ago i wouldn't have read this out like this but after the whole sinny sweeney
who knows sinny sweeney stuff who knows nikeims. I believe that is the Kim Kardashian one. Their
collection launching on September 26th.
Inaugural
apparel collection?
I don't know. I'm not
saying it's the first trade I would have jumped on, but in this
market... Oh, you're saying
Nike came out with news?
Yeah, so they're partnering with...
They had news that they partnered with
Kim Kardashian's
or something with their Skims lineup.
And they're launching the inaugural collection.
Nikki, jump in.
Yeah.
This is a long-awaited partnership between Kim Kardashian, Skims, and Nike.
And it's Nike's attempt to try to revive and, you know, turn,
turn the business around. So, you know, Skims,
you can get it anywhere. You can get it at Nordstrom.
You can get it online.
So it's going to be interesting to see exactly what they're doing to,
to make us want to go to Nike specifically. But we'll,
make us want to go to Nike specifically.
But we'll see
we'll see what it looks like.
what it looks like.
Listen, if Sydney Sweeney
could do it, Kim Kardashian might be able to
too as well. We'll see.
I guess Nike's a little bit of a different behemoth
than the AEOs
and those other different names in the world.
But we'll make it.
We'll probably have to do this.
Thanks for having me. Love you all will be you know i'm around all
week this week and i'll definitely be on next week and if you want to hit me up you know you
know where to find me i gotta jump we appreciate you for joining in scott if you're not following
scott you are missing out appreciate you joining we got an extra 10 minutes with him today too
appreciate you thanks also make sure you're following all of the other speakers as well
we enjoy doing this
every single Monday through Thursday
3 to 5 p.m. Eastern at least
we get some awesome special speakers on
like we've had for the last little bit
and you'll hear throughout the week
to come in and share some thoughts
we did get the market closed there
a couple of minutes ago
markets did close green
aren't expecting too many earnings today
after the close
tomorrow we do have a Micron and then Thursday we have a expecting too many earnings today after the close. Tomorrow we do have a Micron.
And then Thursday we have a Costco,
but nothing coming up after the close today.
I'm seeing Kratos promotes Ryan Shepard
to chief information officer.
Not that that's going to move the stock,
but I know it is a talked about name here on DSpaces.
Did anyone, Nikki, I know you came in there i don't know how much you you've talked in the
spaces um were there any parts that we've talked about so far that were interesting for you anything
that that you were excited about that we haven't touched on yet yeah um i've enjoyed the conversation
as a as a trader myself i've been trading trading and basically coaching traders for the past 15 years.
So my personal style has evolved over the years from more day trading into swing trading, as kind of Stock Talk talked about his style with swings.
And I found that, you know, with the swing trades, my performance and profitability has just gotten so much better. So I think everyone just
kind of evolved over time and finds what works best for them. I do think this market environment
right now, we go through these periods where as traders, we have to know when to press the gas
and when to press the brake, right?
Market environment can get you into a lot of trouble if you're not familiar with how to judge
it. And right now, it's a press the gas time, of course. A lot of short squeezes. I think it was,
I forgot who it was speaking about this, but talking about some recent names that they're not profitable,
kind of shit shares, as you will, but they're taken off. And a lot of that has to do with
highly shorted stocks that are just getting momentum behind them. And I think with that,
as a trader, we have to know, okay, we're in a hit the gas environment. We know what this looks
like. We went through 2021 and other environments where
you get euphoric, you get trader greed, and you overstay your welcomes and your trades,
and then everything takes a turn pretty quick. So I think that traders need to be very aware of what they're feeling in terms of greed and take profit scale out.
Um, as you go, especially when you have outsized returns on a trade,
you want to be taking action very quickly on, on those when they come. Cause it's easy to be like,
Oh my God, I'm up a hundred percent, 200%. And you're like, Oh, I'm just going to keep going.
I'm up 100%, 200%.
And you're like, oh, I'm just going to keep going.
I'm just going to not take profit.
And then that's when markets at all time highs and we're due for a correction.
And boom, one headline comes out and we're selling off.
And there goes your gains because you didn't take profit.
So I think right now it's a press the gas moment for traders.
But it's also a, hey, let's not get greedy.
Let me really kind of tap into that and make sure that I'm making the right moves with my trade management.
So, but all in all, great conversation.
Thanks for having me.
I appreciate you for being here.
Let's see.
Has anyone else not spoken too much yet?
Wolfie.
Go ahead.
There we go.
Let's come over to you anyway.
Any thoughts on the conversation we've been having?
Anything standing out?
Monday?
I'm going to give people two minutes to start here.
Is this Nike Skims thing something interesting?
I know you were in on the AEO play.
Well, it bounced off the 200.
This has been like a way that they kicked the can, I think, two months ago or a month and a half ago.
But, you know, they're trying to revive that.
They lost market share basically for running from Hoka and I forget the other one.
But basically there's a couple of running brands.
And they got some of running brands and they, they
got some of it back cause I, they own a six, but there are other categories that they lost
out on.
So Allo came in and took market share from Lulu.
Nike, Nike originally took some market share, but they're basically trying to revive, you
know, a segment for women's apparel and the site's up.
So you can go check it.
It's like Nike.com slash Skims.
It's on the homepage too.
They got a nice little collab video
with some, you know, female athletes and Kim Kardashian.
I will say, I don't know how to word this,
but like there are some of the pieces
are designed in a way to grab attention.
I'll just put it that way.
I'll leave it at that.
Other parts of the conversation, like they were talking about Nebius.
If you guys go back, anybody in the audience, if you go and listen to or watch the Wolf Financial live trading segment from Friday.
If you go in and you watch, I think it was an hour and a half
to two hours before the market closed.
So if you just watch that 30-minute window.
Emp and I actually talked about the exact trade in real-time live. we took the trade live gave the strikes and everything
um then i we were talking about you know yolo potentials and we were talking about buying this
week's calls 103 105s um with potential to stack going to 110 basically talked about you know having
if you if you'd missed it, Stock Talk actually
brought up the same point we were talking about in the thing, it broke the 20 day, the
day before, the day of, or whatever, where it, you know, gapped up the next day for the
Microsoft headline.
So like, if you were just technically training it, you missed it, talked about, you could
have been long against the prior high, which was 87, call it, or 88, whatever you want to use.
And then, you know, even if you missed that, there was a coil setup for this week where, you know, breakout of an all-time high.
And then even if you missed that today, you had an opportunity to go back and buy it against the prior all-time high at like 99 and change.
So we talked about it on friday
mentioned that one and tempest both got up pretty nicely um so if if you wanted to get a little more
depth and emp actually had the screen up so we marked the chart so if you just want to go back
and see it that's that's there there's not really much uh you know everything's working everything
works across the board we talked about rivian before uh we had a little back and forth um you know that since we've since we talked about it
uh that's you and me evan stocks up 34 so it's pretty done pretty nicely on on a equity basis
uh you know i've had call options or for 2026 calls those are up like 43 so that's that one's doing well there's
he has talked about a lot of things there's a lot of things that are setting up still though
uh you know bottom of the barrel type shit so you know take a look like teledoc i've mentioned that
a few weeks ago it's done well but it's still just below its 200 day i feel like 2025 is kathy wood's
year some could say it yeah it says bottom of the barrel that we get into a T-Doc
Kathy Wood name. I love it.
Yeah, but T-Doc actually
there's a fundamental setup behind
it. I mentioned it in a couple
of spaces before on evaluation,
but there's this
potential
horde that they might have based on
questions people ask and better know, and better help general
questions, not like the HIPAA stuff. There's a lot of different levers they could possibly pull.
There's an acquisition potential, all that stuff. But just from a technical setup, if it can get
above its 200 day, I think 200 day is like 880, 870, somewhere around there. There's a lot of
runway to go for where it was earlier in the year when people got behind the name. So that's one that still has like an interesting look that hasn't gone. Intel headline went, which we've talked about several times before the first government entry
and then after and then last week and so on and so forth. But once you get the headline on Friday,
I think it was, or Thursday maybe, where Intel was up like 50%. Yeah, it was Thursday.
They came back and bought that name against prior highs as well. In the same vein, there was Thursday. They came back and bought that name against Pryor Heights as well.
In the same vein, there was a stock that kind of caught my eye. I don't really usually pay attention to unusual options activity,
but there's a stock, UMAC, which is a drone defense stock.
And DJT Jr. sits on the board.
So there was, I think, 7,000 calls bought in the November strike,
which was unusual for a name like that. Worth paying attention to, at least. You know, again,
I'm not usually unusual options activity guy, but, you know, when that seems to be the playbook
as of late, it's worth watching. VKTX is another one. They were talking about the
Pfizer acquisition this morning. VKTX is, depending on who you talk to, it's allegedly
the better of the two oral agents. And the stock got beaten up from 40 back down to 23.
It trades just a little bit north of 25, I think right now.
You know, if you take a look at some of these price targets on the name, there's a there's a price target that came out today.
I know Stock Talk's big on reading analyst notes.
But if you go back and read the analyst note today, there's a reiteration.
I forget who it was that reiterated it, but reiteration was for,
it was BTIG.
So Justin Zellen,
you know,
they reiterated and talked about the premiums and,
and,
and some of the,
some of the benefits of,
of Viking.
And they put up,
maintained their buy rating and $125 price target.
So particularly that stock straight at 25 bucks.
So it's, it's worth, worth mentioning on the back of the acquisition.
And then, you know, I don't,
there's not really too much to add.
I'd just say,
there's like some anecdotal stuff I could add.
You know, there's been this like,
there's been this like hatred,
not by anyone here. it's just just online there's been this like hatred uh by some people of you know kind of pointing to
uh people sharing screenshots of their portfolio performance which you know i i will i will say if
you're not sharing it with the lows and you're sharing it only at the highs, I think it's something Stock Talk says too.
But if you're one of those, you know, whatever turned you on, my perspective.
But for me, it's like take it with a grain of salt.
But I will say that there's people that are using it as like an anecdotal evidence point to like why some crash is imminent.
I'd say don't listen to that. Right. So like if you go back to 2020 and 2021, you know, people were saying that very early on.
And then we went through a SPAC mania and then through like even more, you know, crazy
bullish times before that became true.
So while it might be true on an elongated basis, maybe. It's not really anything where you should go out and, like, really panic,
is what I would say.
But, you know, that being said, the VIX did close green today,
which I thought was interesting.
You know, again, not to say that there's going to be some sort of, like,
mass hysteria, black swan, whatever.
But, you know, when you've got S&P up half a percent, NASDAQ up three quarters of a percent, you know, Russell up half percent or more.
And then you have the VIX basically pressing into, you know, a pretty important spot for it as of late.
With the 200-day set, I think 30% above,
it does give you an opportunity to just take a look at what you own,
maybe buy some protection if you haven't.
Just protection.
It's not like, again, not calling for a market crash or anything like that.
But generally, those are some sort of tells that result in some sort of back and fill at some point.
So while things are still positive, and again, I've pressed the brakes sometimes while other guys were aggressive on here.
And for the past, I'd say, like month or so, there's no reason to
positioning windows set in a way where there's no, you know, like real reason to get crazy
afraid outside of quote unquote seasonality. And some of the, you know, colloquial isms that
people like to use the Rosh Hashanah one, for example. But, you know, if you are someone who's
locked in really good returns, if you are someone who's locked in
really good returns, if you, let's say,
I'm just going to pick on a name, let's say Oklo,
you've been in Oklo for, you know,
the last 40% upside
in however short weeks it's been,
you know, maybe you
sell some sort of upside premium
to cap, you know, whatever
could happen, or you sell some,
or you buy some protection or do something like that. Whatever works for you, right? So, you know whatever could happen or you sell some or you buy some protection or do something
like that whatever whatever whatever works for you right so you know it is it is it is great
everything's doing everything's fine for the rotation thing that you guys were talking about
that's been a theme at the top it's been like an hour since you guys mentioned that's been a theme
for like months now a lot of these mega cap names when when they do run together, I've met like,
you can run like a core, a correlation assessment or something like that. But like when they do run
together, it's generally when everything else is puking, or selling, for lack of a better,
I don't want to say puking when things are selling, and they're kind of used as like a
buoy to hold things together. And then when you know, you get this is not like a new phenomenon,
but we've
noticed on this, on this space and others, I think this is what Emp was kind of speaking to,
when you see some, when you see like, so today, for example, you've seen NVIDIA up, Tesla up,
you know, Apple up, right? There'll be profit taking elsewhere. So you'll see like, you know,
the Amazon, the Google, the Meta, whatever. And then before that, the previous weeks before that,
you'd seen Google up, Meta up, for example, in the last couple of weeks.
And some of the other names kind of holding firm or some profit-taking happening.
This is not a new phenomenon.
It's just something that they're just going from one to the other.
It kind of keeps the things lubricated.
I do think that the broadening out
and some of the boring stuff working is a net positive. I do think that if you enjoyed
opportunities like NVIDIA today during the session, like you could have bought out of the
money weeklies, out of money next week, out of money whatever, just compounded your money.
Those are times where you don't really press the guess. You kind of like, you take advantage of it,
take the profit, move on, right? It's not like a start of something much more, much,
I wouldn't press it as a start of something much more major for the market itself, right? But
there's a lot of different ways, a lot of different things working. There's not really
much to add beyond that.
So I'll stop there.
If you have anything specific, whether it's Kim Kardashian or otherwise, let me know.
I did see an Allie join us up here, and I want to bring her into the conversation,
and then we'll see where we're at coming out of it.
Appreciate you, Wolfie, as always.
I think it was an interesting...
We'll see if the market picks up the Nike skims one.
I won't front run it.
I'll let the market force my hand on that one.
I will say the headline came out at a very interesting spot.
Held a prior uptrend on a retest and then held its 200-day today.
If your PR department doesn't have a technician, what are you doing?
Leaving stock shareholder value on the table, if you ask me. Allie, I want to bring you into the conversation, kind of my way. I was going to
say, I have more thoughts on the Nike skims thing after I took a look at it. We can talk about it
after Allie. No, come to it. Oh, I was just going to say that after looking at it, I see what they
did here. And it's interesting. And it's what Nike needed, you know, for sure to,
to target women and athleisure, uh, active wear. However, is it going to turn things around? Um,
I can't say by looking at it that I'm like, oh, this is a slam dunk. It's going to win,
but I do think it's what they needed. So it's a good start.
so it's a good start
yeah I wouldn't have thought the American Eagle Sidney Sweeney thing would have gone the way it
necessarily did I thought it would have just been you know not the biggest news story and then it
turned into something big uh so we'll see if it could do it for Nike as well oh yeah I keep trying
to set you up for this that there are like 30 Fed presidents speaking this week. It's quite insane. The number on my calendar was 19, but there's already multiple ones that were like
on top of that, like the Bostick thing this morning. So it is quite the headline driven week.
I feel like what was introduced today, which is sticking to me, is that maybe we're going to get
less rate cuts than we were previously expected. I think a Bostick said that and one other.
It's not like that that's all the Fed decisions we're saying or even anything changed. I'm sure we'll get some more of
the dovish people coming on the other side. But I felt a net hawkish commentary on the Fed today.
What was standing out for you there? And I don't know if there's anything else,
if I'm not prompting you that way, that was interesting for you.
Yeah, of course.
I do think right now the Fed is probably the biggest focus point this week from an economic perspective.
We sort of have a little bit of a break when it comes to some of the major economic data points.
And obviously we're gearing up for the start of earnings season, which is just a couple weeks away, I guess, at this point.
But, yeah, all eyes on the Fed.
The Boston Comments were interesting, seeing no rate cuts through the rest of this year.
And I do think under the surface of the cut, I talked about this last week too,
Powell's presser, a lot of the components of the statement,
maybe did lean a little more hawkish than the cut and even the dots projected. So I
don't think you can ignore that side of the Fed and what they're looking at moving forward.
Obviously, you have that dissenter, Stephen Myron, the newest Fed governor,
pushing for that 50 basis point cut. He didn't get that last week. Consensus was firmly at 25.
He didn't get that last week. Consensus was firmly at 25. And he argues that policy is too
restrictive, as is probably around 200 basis points worth too restrictive is what he said.
And that risks a downward shift in the labor market and unnecessary layoffs down the line.
So he wants to move quickly to that neutral rate. And he downplayed a lot of the tariff-driven inflation
concerns. He's called them unreasonable. And he also emphasized Fed independence. And that's been
something that a lot of economists and investors have been watching closely, this idea of Fed
independence. And he said himself specifically that he'd weigh the president's views but make decisions on merit.
So he's emphasized that point to the central bank.
But we do have a fair amount of Fed governors coming out later this week.
It'll be interesting to put all the talking points together and try and bring out some sort of clarity on where central bank leaders could see the Fed moving for the
rest of this year. And maybe we do have a slightly more hawkish Fed. And in 2026, we see some more
cuts. But I think what we saw last week was the start of this easing cycle. The data, at least
the hard data points, has been coming in pretty strong. Survey data is still pretty
pessimistic. And reading through Wall Street commentary, that's been something that's been
pointed out to why we're not at over-exuberance in the market, why stocks can keep going up higher
from here, because it's not this blind optimism, buy, bye, bye. There still is a healthy amount of pessimism out there.
And that suggests that we're not in bubble-like territory.
We're not in this exuberant part of the cycle,
which we've seen before usually leads to some significant downward pressure on equities.
But it doesn't seem like we're there yet
that we still have a lot more room to run
and that AI is really driving a lot of those gains.
And I think you saw that
with some of the individual movers today with NVIDIA,
the investment in open AI.
And that is really the story right now.
We have consistent record highs here.
And it feels like there's little that can stop the momentum in the market.
S&P just logged its 28th record close of the year.
And if you were to tell us this during the April lows, I don't know if many people would
believe the ramp up that we've seen.
And even a company like Apple that's really struggled, that even hit a closing high for 2025 for the year after bouncing back significantly off the lows.
Now it's still lagging the broader market. It's nowhere near some of its big tech competitors.
But it might be a sign or a sentiment shift maybe that some of 2025's biggest laggards are now starting to
gain some ground there um and then on a sector basis tech utilities outperformed
stays staples communication services consumer discretionary i believe are the laggards
and then yeah it's like it's really your your big player is i just continue
to drive a lot of these gains and help boost uh the broader
market here do you so a couple people have been talking about this powell press conference or i
don't even know if that's the right word for it that he has coming up tomorrow he's speaking at
an economic event what was it i don't know why do I feel like it was like Rhode Island or something?
But do you know how anything we're expecting for Powell tomorrow? And generally, like, I feel this happens a good little bit where he'll go and speak at some conference or some event or something like that after he comes in and has his Fed speak.
And I don't know if he normally says anything new.
And I don't know if he normally says anything new.
I feel like he doesn't, but I wonder if I'm just, you know, not remembering it.
I feel like he doesn't.
But I wonder if I'm just, you know, not remembering it.
So I'm curious if you looked into this Powell press conference we have coming up this week or whatever it is.
Yeah, I didn't look too much into it.
You're right, though.
Sometimes it's hit or miss.
Sometimes he'll come out and speak and he will say things that are interesting and he will say things that move markets.
Other times it's, you know, a bit of a nothing burger. But I think
considering the amount of Fed governors that we have this week and how they all are giving their
opinions on where they see the future of interest rates, I think you'll be able to glean where Powell
sits within that. And he's pretty neutral when you stack all the Fed governors up against each other.
But his answers, especially if there's a Q&A, I think that usually tells a lot about his thinking.
And we've seen his thinking change, too, over the course of the year.
And we know that he's looking closely at the data and looking closely at policies too. I mean, Fed operates sort of as
a data dependent agency, but at the same time, I think certain moments within the year, we've
heard Jay Powell talk about how different policy is making things. And I'm curious to hear if he
has more to say on the immigration crackdown, how that's filtering through into the labor market, how he
sees the strength and the resilience of the labor market, because that was a big reason why the Fed
decided to cut 25 basis points, that it was a lot weaker than initially anticipated.
But at the same time, though, you know, jobless claims aren't running away from us. We're not at
this tipping point. So how do you really balance that for the Fed?
I think that's something that Jerome Powell will continuously be asked about,
continually be pressed about. We did just hear from him. So this press conference,
I wonder how much more he's going to elaborate on the things he talked about last week. But again,
I do think last week did lean a bit more hawkish, that risk management cut.
Even that framing does make you think, okay, they're taking a meeting by meeting approach,
which they've always said. They're looking at the data in totality. They're not trying to get
ahead of themselves. And they're broadly aligned with the markets. I do think the markets, though,
can be a pricing in a few more cuts than I think are realistic that we will actually see. And what will the reaction be for that? Because certainly the expectation of easing has fueled a scenario where we have a melt-up in stocks because of expected easing.
And now that's not necessarily a good thing either because you don't want to cut too quickly and risk fueling inflation at a time where the economy seems very sensitive to that moment.
And even if you look at the consumer, the bifurcated consumer, which we've been talking about for quite some time now, it is this very weird environment where you have stocks at record highs, that upper echelon of consumer doing well, but then you have everyone else really struggling. the most hated stock market rally, because it really doesn't feel like we're in this time
period where there's a lot of exuberance, even though we are at these record highs. So a lot of
that comes down to policy and what the Fed decides to do. But I'm very interested to see what he says
and whether or not he leans a little more hawkish or dovish compared to what we just heard from him.
a little more hawkish or dovish compared to what we just heard from him.
I appreciate the thoughts there.
I'm seeing a Rocket Lab headline out, by the way, something around that.
And there's Rocket Lab, two Mars-bound spacecraft arrived in Florida ahead of launch.
I don't even know moves these stocks sometimes.
Was someone going to talk there quickly?
I was just going to say you were correct.
It is in Rhode Island, the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon with 600 attendees.
Wonderful event.
I'm sure it'll be good.
So there is a lot on this kind of docket, I guess, this week.
There's plenty of noise that's going to be coming in on the macro front this week.
What are you actually watching?
Now, I know PCE on Friday is one that maybe could be the answer for.
Maybe there's one or two specific Fed presidents
we want to hear what they think about.
But yeah, give me the kind of...
I don't know if it's when we're coming out of this week
what you think the one or two interesting stuff in
or just, you know, cutting through the noise.
Headphone died there.
But yeah, what's going to be, what's standing out for you?
Allie, that was over to you.
I know I probably cut out there.
Oh, sorry.
Yes, can you just repeat the question?
There is a lot going on this week on the macro front.
There's going to be a lot of noise.
What's the signal?
What are the one or two things you're really watching for?
I was pointing to PCE is one I've heard people talking about.
I don't know if that's Powell.
I feel like this Powell one might end up being more noise and signal.
Trying to cut through it.
What are you watching?
We do have PCE this week.
How could I forget?
It does feel like we've been on overdrive with
everything. I think PCE probably is the signal because I think that is the risk to more rate
cuts. Given what we saw with CPI and what filters through into PCE, there's been a lot of commentary
from economists that the latest CPI report that we got is actually pretty good for PCE. There's been a lot of commentary from economists that the latest CPI report that
we got is actually pretty good for PCE, at least the components that flow through into PCE.
But if that comes in super hot, I do think that maybe changes the way the Fed thinks about the
pace of rate cuts. And really, that's what it comes down to, right? It's not the fact that we
will continue to see rate cuts. I think we will. It's just how aggressive will the Fed be? How more consistently will they come? Will they take a pause or will they just continue to deliver these very standard 25 basis point cuts on a regular cadence? cadence. And I think what could stop that is it's the insurgence of inflation. And I've said this
before that I do think the Fed has elements of PTSD that they will, you know, kind of inflation
will run away from them. And then that's an even more difficult position. And then, like I said,
the good thing with the labor market is that it's been pretty strong. It's held up. I mean,
always look at those jobless claims.
That's the most real-time data that we get. The jobs reports are pretty backward looking.
So if we can see any massive swings in either direction on the jobless claims front, that'll
probably give us the biggest indication on where we're at at the current moment. But the inflation side of the story hasn't totally been completed, right? I mean,
we still have terrorists working their way through the economy. We've seen elements of that. Of
course, it's better than feared in a lot of ways. I think at this point, economists thought that we
would see a bigger surge in inflation when we look at consumer prices, but we haven't necessarily
seen that at this point in time. That doesn't mean we won't. And the Fed does not want to get
itself in a position where inflation all of a sudden is running away from them.
And the labor market's good, but what does that mean for prices? Because that is a tricky balancing act.
So I would definitely look at PCE this week
in combination with the voices
that we're hearing on the Fed side
and what their tone is
when it comes to the future of break cuts.
I appreciate you, Allie, for joining in as always.
Everyone should make sure you're following the speakers, all that good stuff.
Hope you join us back and feel free to hang out.
I want to shift the conversation a little bit again,
unless anyone has any thoughts on that.
I don't know if Emp or Stock Talk or anyone else wants to keep digging in.
I hope you join us back later in the week, Ali.
I want to dig more into this PCE thing,
which I know the market will be focused a lot on.
But yeah.
Me and StockSniper were talking a little bit.
There was a little Lockheed Martin announcement yesterday.
And I know, Sniper, you were excited to talk about this.
And there was maybe some stuff linking it to Kratos.
So I wonder if this is a StockTalk conversation as well, Sniper.
But I'll throw it over to you.
What are you watching? How are you feeling?
I'm feeling entertained, slightly contested, and extremely curious.
You know, this weekend on Saturday, we saw that Lockheed did announce that they're going to be making a new fully autonomous jet.
This one, they're going to be calling it the vectus um the vectus will be a threat in my opinion towards the kratos qx 58 valkyrie
um which is kratos's uh leading autonomous drone um and you know this is pretty much uh for anybody
who is not familiar really with uh aviation and fighter jets exactly per se. The main difference between
fifth and sixth generation fighters that we're kind of looking to see here, it's not really as
much as the hypersonic and a lot of the other crazy conversations we were having a few years ago.
It's starting to really look like you're going to see drone swarms with all these new advanced
fighters. And even with the existing fifth generation fighters that are in the air right now,
it seems like there's a lot of interest on autonomous drones providing support roles for these fifth generation fighters in the air right now.
Examples are the F-35 and the F-22 Raptor, both American and Lockheed jets slash Boeing.
But Lockheed announced that this new autonomous drone is going to be coming out.
You could see I put a little thing in the nest above.
You could see the Kratos QX-58 Valkyrie inside of here. The one thing that is mainly jumping out towards me, and a lot of
the information on this is still classified because, again, they just unveiled plans of making
this on Saturday. But the one thing that's really immediately jumping out to me is that Lockheed's
price target for this drone is supposed to be under $30 million, above $20 million.
So in that $20 to $30 million range, Kratos is building this QX58 Valkyrie.
It's going to cost around $4 million right now.
Their objective is to bring this under $2 million going in towards production units of over 100 within a year.
And for anyone who's a little more unfamiliar with the manufacturing of these
kind of vehicles, typically the higher the volume is, the cheaper they're able to bring down their
price because they can pretty much make everything more efficient, you know, because you're doing the
same thing over and over again. Labor is more efficient. Materials are going to see a price
curve when you're buying a lot more of it as well. But that's pretty much the story. We're
kind of seeing the Kratos QX58 Valkyrie now has some more autonomous drone competition. And these are not like regular drones. You know, these are pretty much a fighter jet. You know, this is able to, you know, it's able to shoot strikes. It's able to gather surveillance, gather intelligence. It's able to accomplish practically anything that these fifth generation fighter jets are doing. And the thing is, it's going to be
completely autonomous. And same with the ones coming out, you know, the F-47, which is supposed
to be our sixth generation fighter, our first sixth generation fighter, as far as USA goes.
This Kratos QX-58 Valkyrie and, you know, the Lockheed Martin Vectus seem like they're going to be in competition to become the loyal wingman of the F-47.
And it also seems like they're in competition with existing fifth generation fighters in the air right now.
But Stock Talk, I wanted to ask if you were able to read on this story and if you had any thoughts or questions or anything that you noticed or any observations that you made.
questions or anything that you noticed or any observations that you made yeah I
saw it you know I'm familiar with LMT's autonomous drone program and there are
a couple other companies as well LMT is obviously the main competitor
can you hear me now yeah we got you back now uh lmt is obviously the main competitor in terms of
technological capability um i looked at the vectus program
in quite a bit of detail uh about a month and a half ago when i first
saw an article on it and it is competitive to the valkyrie system. But recently the Valkyrie systems had modifications made to it.
Kratos made several modifications to it to add built-in landing gear for both standard landing and carrier-based operations too.
So, you know, they theoretically think it can work off an aircraft carrier the same way that the actual fighter jets
will um but that adds complexity and a little bit of cost to the platform but it adds enough
complexity i think for them to be competitive so i think the valkyrie's probably still
a top two candidate for unmanned drone systems and if if you look at the DOD's demonstrations of unmanned
drone systems, like the Valkyrie has been there for the last four demonstrations,
been on site at DOD facilities. So a lot of this is about effective marketing. Obviously,
LMT has an edge there because they're prime and they're essentially really a subsidiary of the U.S. government,
the same way that Northrop is and the same way that BAE Systems is.
But I still think Kratos is uniquely positioned here.
Kratos has competition, to be frank, in all of their platforms. But I think they're uniquely positioned here because they can offer a very, very operationally specific platform.
In other words, they can modify the Valkyrie accordingly based on what the budgetary needs are, right?
So if you're launching a Valkyrie program full scale, you're going to want the modifications in.
You're going to want the landing gear.
You're going to want the landing gear you're going to want the carrier based um tech so i think they have the flexibility to meet what is going to be required for the
unmanned systems but yeah they have competition from lmt they have competition for plenty of
people the argument really with favoring the mid-cap guys in this space and the same thing
goes for shipbuilding right like huntington angles is a much smaller company than General Dynamics, but I own that name instead of General Dynamics. And the principle there is that I want
the more pure play exposure to the thematic, right? LMT is a very diversified business,
as is General Dynamics. Now, General Dynamics' main focus is on shipbuilding, the way that
Lockheed Martin's main focus is on aircraft and munitions for the government. But when you segment those off and you look at the size of these prime
contractors, they're big businesses, right? They're, you know, many of them are multi
hundred billion dollar businesses. Some are 50, 60 billion dollar businesses, but they're big
businesses and their midcap counterparts have tremendously more upside
from contract securing, right? Like if Lockheed secures a $2 billion test contract for Vectis,
is that going to make a difference to Lockheed's market cap or their profitability? No,
it doesn't make any difference, right? If Kratos wins that contract, the stock goes up 30%.
Same thing with Huntington, right? Like,
if Huntington wins incremental shipbuilding awards, even if they're just subcontracted for them,
the size of those shipbuilding awards on a relative basis to Huntington is far more meaningful
than the size of those shipbuilding awards on a relative basis to General Dynamics.
Do you see the argument I'm making?
Which is that, yes, these companies have competition, but they're hyper-specialized.
They serve as pure-play exposures, which means the market gives them more premium in the first place.
And on top of all of that, and perhaps the most important point,
when they do sign contracts, those contracts are more meaningful to their market cap.
So that's really the overall reason why I'm focused on mid-cap defense as opposed to large-cap defense.
I think the opportunity for large-cap defense is still good.
But, I mean, look at what those stocks have done with 10 years of rising defense spending, right?
Yeah, they go up, but, like, they haven't made incredibly compelling investments or trades for the better
part of the last decade. Now, on the other hand, in just the last two years, look at mid cap defense.
Most of the mid cap defense leaders are three to five hundred percent in two years. Right. I mean,
not only do the returns from the primes pale in comparison to that, they're not even comparable.
Right. And so I think the market's speaking loudly as to where the opportunity is in mid-cap defense. And it's in specialized contractors
that have smaller market caps that can meet the needs of a shifting set of priorities when it
comes to U.S. defense, drones, autonomous weapon systems, precision munitions. This is like the
new age of defense. And there are probably four
or five companies, in my view, that mid-cap companies that are best positioned to benefit
from it. I've brought up many of them this year. Mercury Systems, Leonardo DRS, Huntington Ingalls,
Kratos. I mean, I really could bring up 12 if I really wanted to get into a deep dive conversation
about this. Maybe we'll do a spaces on it one day where I go over all my 12 or 13 favorites. But for every area of the defense apparatus, there is a pure play
exposure in the mid cap space that in my view, will offer better returns than the large cap
counterpart. That's the basic simplicity of the thesis. And for me, even my conviction in that
basket has changed, right? like I've mentioned this before
but the beginning of the year I had like eight or nine names in my defense basket now I'm down to
just three right I just have well four if you want to count D pro which is the small cap that I picked
up a couple of weeks ago it's already up 25 from our entry but that's a small cap drone play if you
want to count that one counted in the basket if not it's just Huntington, Kratos, and Embraer. And Embraer is not even really a defense play. It's more of an
aerospace slash defense because they have a civilian aircraft business that is pretty large.
So yeah, I mean, again, I still love the other names that I don't own anymore. I'm not saying
they're bad opportunities. In fact, I think Mercury is probably the one that's the most boring,
but also has a ton of upside if you're into the picks and shovels. I mean, Mercury's system is
deeply entrenched in pretty much every next-gen theme as a supplier. But again, I could talk
about this for 45 minutes, but there's a lot of opportunities. But to your point about Kratos and
LMT, yes, LMT is competitive. No, I don't think that changes the upside case for
Kratos is the short answer. So let me ask you this, right? Just as far as the overall market
goes, right? And I'm going to give you my perspective on this, and then I'm going to ask
you a question after that. But in my opinion, and this is just from all the reading that I've done, are you familiar with the Next Generation Air Defense program?
Yeah.
I'm sorry, Air Superiority.
I got to say that I find that the F-47 is extremely underwhelming compared towards the stats of the F-22 Raptor.
It doesn't really go much faster.
The stealth capabilities are better, I guess. But I mean, overall, it kind of seems like pretty weak for 20 years of development, in my opinion, at least. The
autonomous is cool, but it seems like that's pretty much expected at this point also.
I personally, the way that I've positioned some of my stocks and my bet on towards what exactly
is going to be happening in the defense space over the next year, I think that we're going to stick with the fifth generation fighters for a while.
And I think that you're going to see the government spend a lot more money,
just about every branch of it, spend a lot more money on these support drones.
Would you agree with that take?
Yeah, I think drones will be the number one area of U.S. defense spending in the next five years.
The number one area.
And I don't think it'll even be close.
If you look at the program you're referring to, and GAD, which people might not be familiar with, but it refers
to next generation air dominance program. And GAD is the, is the acronym that the air force uses,
but, um, you know, the, the, sorry, whatever. I was going to say, look, the thing about drones
is it's, it's the most important thing right now, but they're, they tend to be cheaper than a lot
of these other missiles and stuff like that.
I wonder if it's not – like it's probably going to be a lot of the mind share, but I don't know if it's going to be a dollar amount.
I don't know if I should have interrupted you with that.
No, no, you're good.
That's a fine question.
The majority of the capital in the next five years will be the infrastructure, right?
I mean, when you think about this in a product way, it's difficult to think about because you think about a product where you're thinking like, OK, like are millions of drones going
to be built?
Who's going to be buying them?
How quickly are they going to be deployed?
That's a much more complicated question.
The simpler way to think about this is the United States government's drone infrastructure
versus all of our significant counterparties, basically just China is all that matters, is hilariously bad.
Right. And part of that is because most of the U.S. defense apparatus in the prior 10 years has been focused on legacy hardware,
like making new fighter jets. You know, the F-47 program was ridiculously expensive.
program was ridiculously expensive. And, you know, tanks, you know, heavy munitions, missiles. I mean,
there's been a little bit more of a focus in the last three years, specifically, I'd say,
around long range ballistics. I mean, that's been a global focus. That's not even just a
US based focus. Long range ballistics has been a global focus for like three years,
and will continue to be one. But if you look at the NGAD's outline from the Department of
Defense, NGAD again, meaning next generation air dominance, you look at the outline, they highlight
three specific functions. Function A being enhanced sensor functions. We were talking about that
earlier. Companies like Mercury Systems help with that. Long range strike capabilities. So long range
ballistic missiles and long range mun capabilities. So long range ballistic missiles
and long range munitions. And the third and the one that we're referring to here with Kratos is
quote unquote, what they're calling the loyal wingman. That's what they're referring to it
as the DOD. That's what they're referring to it in the military industrial apparatus. And what
loyal wingman means is essentially an unmanned aircraft that will fly alongside F-45 fighter jets,
I'm sorry, F-47 fighter jets in this next generation of American air dominance. Now,
almost all of the loyal wingman program details are extremely buttoned up outside of what we've
heard indirectly from companies like Kratos and LMT. Now, if you listen to the LMT and Kratos
earnings calls, what you will notice is that there is an intentional tone surrounding the NGAD program
that is very tight-lipped. Even if you listen to DeMarco's, Kratos' CEO on the last earnings call,
he was continually like, I cannot talk he was continually like I cannot talk about that
here I cannot talk about that here I cannot talk about the year that's a confidential program yes
we're involved but I cannot talk about that here that was like his response to I don't know five
of the questions he was asked um and he wanted to be emphatic you could tell but it's very very
highly classified the loyal wingman part of the NGAD So we know Kratos is a bidder for that with Valkyrie.
We know LMT is probably a bidder for that with Vestias.
I forgot what it was called, but whatever the hell their aircraft's called.
But there's a couple of other bidders as well.
Now, we don't know how the rollout of that contract is going to look.
We don't know how many tranches it's going to be rolled out in.
We don't know if there's going to be maybe multiple awards to testers in the first stage of the contract. So I don't want to speculate on the details of that. But yes, that's a big focus for the Department of Defense right now. lifting drones, ISR, all that stuff is a little bit separate from the NGAD, right?
Because the NGAD is specifically focused on fighter jet dominance, air-to-air superiority.
That's the primary focus of NGAD, whereas the other programs, the other programs that are rolling now,
like the drone program, the UAVs, the Blue List, all these are more focused on drones.
drone program, the UAVs, the Blue List, all these are more focused on drones. So I think it's smart
to have exposure to multiple of these areas. At least my money's where my mouth is. I have
small cap drone exposure. I have mid cap exposure to most of the specialized defense areas that I'm
interested in. Shipbuilding has been pretty mute of a conversation for most of
this year since late last year when we first found out it's going to be a priority for the
Trump administration. I mean, I continue to hone Huntington. I know I mentioned it here and there.
It's not really a ripper like a lot of my other names, but I mean, we got in low 200s. Huntington's
trading 276 now. And I mean, go look at that daily chart on Huntington. Nothing but buyers.
starting 276 now. And I mean, go look at that daily chart on Huntington. Nothing but buyers,
nothing but buyers on this thing as it consolidates very, very tightly above the 9 and 21 EMAs. So,
I mean, if you want exposure to U.S. shipbuilding, I think the stock remains a buy. I mean,
I'm still obviously long it from a lower cost basis, but I think the stock remains a buy if
you want exposure to U.S. shipbuilding. And I mean, look at this huge cup it's forming
with all time price, right? If this thing decides to push back to that two ninety area, the three hundred breakout could be huge on this thing. Topped out at two eighty nine mid twenty twenty four fell all the way to two twenty 150s, hell of a recovery since. And if you believe
the administration at all about shipbuilding priorities, I mean, this is the only builder,
the only builder of US nuclear aircraft carriers, right? And it's a 10 billion market cap trading
at one time sales. I mean, there are opportunities in this market that are neither expensive nor unsexy. There are still sexy, thematically relevant,
cheap stocks in this market, as much as that would be hard to believe.
And as much as people would be like, everything's run too much, everything's at nosebleed levels,
I have to chase anything if I want to buy it. It's just simply not true. I mean, look at Amcor
two weeks ago, which was a very high conviction position for me that I upsized twice, was tweeting about it all day.
Not a soul was talking about it on the platform. Stock's up 20 percent higher in two weeks.
Look at the call flow on that thing today. Insane call flow.
Thirty five, thirty six strikes going into next year.
You know, soon that stock will be in the 30s and then people will be scratching their head being like why didn't i see that opportunity sitting there in front of me when it was sitting at 24 and a half and nobody was interested in it
and not a single analyst on the street was talking about it you know you can either roll your
shoulders at those opportunities when they present themselves or chase them when they're 30 40 50
percent higher same thing goes for nebius and centrist and all these stocks that i've been
talking about all year people now ask me i get people tagging me now is it too late to buy a nebius i'm like bro are you serious i was talking
about it at 23 25 27 29 35 44 45 50 and now you want to buy it at 100. you know same thing with
kratos talking about it in the 20s 30s 40s 50s now people want it at the 80s like you can do that i'm
not saying you can't buy these names i still still own them. So obviously I still think there's upside if I still own them.
But understand that it's much more difficult to build a position when all you're doing is chasing.
If all you're ever doing is chasing, finding the hottest stock, buying it after, you know, it gaps up and it's in a high tight flag.
Like eventually you're going to come to a point in the market where you have opened 10
new positions in the prior four weeks and then the market pulls back 20 then what then you're
underwater on 10 brand new positions and you're forced to make decisions that you probably didn't
want to make you're forced to sell stuff you didn't want to sell you know like that's how traders
blow up accounts that's how they give back performance that's how they blow up accounts. That's how they give back performance. That's how they get shaken out of stocks that they want to own.
It's by a habit of chasing,
as opposed to a habit of positioning yourself
and then allowing the market to chase the stocks that you own.
For me, the last five weeks has been chill.
Super chill.
Outside of like the Amcor ad and the D-Pro ad,
I haven't done anything.
And those stocks just
went up straight in a straight line after i bought them so it's not like that added to my stress
give me a favor i've been i've been chilling bmr ethereum is probably gonna test this 4k level uh
maybe it's a 3900 bmr i was talking paper maybe it's a maybe to around a 50 or 49 give it a watch
come water's warm come join in give it a couple. Water's warm. Come join in. Give it a couple $5
pullback if we get it.
We're strong. Dude, this is the thing.
I don't get FOMO. I know
PM&R's been ripping. Water's warm. The chart looks great.
I know the water's warm.
But I just don't get FOMO. You know, I have
people tag me all the time
and stuff.
In our Discord or on Twitter,
people are like, look at the stock, you know,
and it'll go up 30% the next day. I am never ever like, oh, I should have bought it. I would process,
I stick to it. I own the names I want to own. I own the names I understand and look at my
performance, right? It speaks for itself. So there's always going to be stocks that
I don't own for some reason.
Maybe I like them and I sold them.
Maybe they fell below my risk.
Maybe they, any number of things can happen for a reason why I sell or don't own a stock.
But there's a handful of core positions that I do my best to stay in every year.
And every year I maybe add one or two core positions.
Maybe, maybe two or three. I positions, maybe, maybe two or three.
I think this year I added two or three.
You know, I'm not a guy who has super high turnover.
I'm not a guy who has a new idea every week.
You know, there's some there's some times where I go an entire month without having a new idea.
My portfolio still performs.
Even though I'm not clicking buttons, my portfolio still performs. Why is that? Because
I'm in the right stocks. And one thing that I think a lot of people don't understand
and that they struggle with is that because people are in this constant state of immediate
gratification, that they search their feed for new ideas constantly. And what people often don't consider is maybe the stock I already own is the best place for my money.
Not enough people ever consider that.
People are always like, what's going to run next?
You know, what's the next stock that's setting up?
What's the next stock that has a catalyst?
What's the next stock?
And I do that sometimes, too.
I'm not saying, like, I don't involve myself with what's hot in the market.
Of course, you know, if a theme picks up pace and is really hot and I think the volume's there, y'all get involved.
But that's not most of the time what I'm doing. Most of the time what I'm doing is studying industries, studying thematics,
deciding if I think they have durability, picking a basket of stocks, building that basket, and then playing the game, holding it, which is most of the game.
Most of the game is not button clicking. Most of the game is just holding.
Anyone who tries to convince you that trading and investing is a product of button clicking
is lying to you. The button clicking is the smallest part of the game. The holding and the stomach,
that's the hardest part. And so I just rinse and repeat that process every year. And if you look
at my, I pin my performance chart at the top, you can look at, you can see my performance chart
from this year and from last year in that post. The last year's is in the quote tweet. And if you look at it,
this year was very different from last year. If you look at the consolidation of my portfolio,
last year, I had a lot more quote unquote pullbacks, right? If you look at my last year's
performance chart, I had every other week, my performance was getting ticks down, right? Why?
Because I was in a much wider array of names, right? I was not in as concentrated
of a series of names. Now this year, I was in a much more concentrated series of names. And you
can see the difference in the performance, right? There's these big rampant gaps where the portfolio
just takes off. And then there's these long periods of consolidation and then a big rampant
gap again. And again, that's by design.
That's because of the differences in the portfolio construction from last year to this year.
And last year, I was sort of scrambling for more opportunities.
This year, I've been much more concentrated and focused on high conviction data.
So again, same results relatively, right?
Last year, posted a 260% return.
Now, as of today, we're at 250.
I know the year isn't over yet, but, you know, it's not like the results have been
dramatically different from a different portfolio composition.
Why is that?
Because the process hasn't changed.
The portfolio has changed dramatically.
The process has not changed.
My rules are still the same. My barometers
for conviction are still the same. The way I monitor stocks on a quarter to quarter basis,
that has not changed. My digestion of information and my reactivity to the data is the same and has
been the same for, I don't know, probably going on eight, nine, 10 plus years. It's been the same
process. But the portfolio composition changes.
The portfolio composition changes in reaction to what the markets are telling me, in reaction
to what I'm seeing.
Where is the money going?
Like the nuclear trade, I couldn't have pounded the table more on it in the past year.
Why was I so high conviction?
because the volume was record volume, all time volume.
Because the volume was a record volume, all time volume.
And still today, even after these nuclear stocks have doubled and tripled,
they are still posting record volume, right?
That's how you tell where the durability is going to be in these themes.
It's not by guessing.
It's not by saying, oh, there's a hot theme in the market.
I'm just going to go balls to the wall and go all in on it.
That's not how you get there. You get there by a diligent analysis of the full context,
of the technical context, of the options flow, of the fundamentals of the business.
Once you have a full picture, then you can say, yeah, this theme is going to last. And I have
conviction it's going to last. I'm going to put my money where my mouth is. That's the difference
my mouth is. That's the difference between people who super perform in the market, people who do
between people who super perform in the market, people who do just okay.
just okay. All right, Emp, I know we're here at a card cutoff. Throw it over to you, but make sure
you are following the speakers. We appreciate everyone. We've got a full day of more content
coming tomorrow. I appreciate you all. Stock Talk, we'll dig in. We prompted you a little bit today.
We'll dig into some more of the stuff that you want to watch. We'll still get a little rant.
Still, you know, old reliable,
old faithful, but
yeah, I'll throw it over to you to close us off. We appreciate
everyone.
Like Evan just said, make sure
you follow this host account right here
and you turn on notifications because
we barely even put out posts other than schedule
and when we go live here on
Spaces each and every day, Monday through
Thursday at 3 p.m. Eastern.
Some days we go for two hours.
Sometimes we go for five hours.
Just depends on what's going on that day.
But for now, I'm going to close this up and hop over to Wolf Financial.
We have our stock picks for the week show.
And out of our pickers last week, here's a little teaser for you.
Our pickers last week, here's a little teaser for you.
Out of our pickers last week, we had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 out of 10 pickers with a positive return.
So still crushing it over there.
Come tune in to see who won and what picks were the best and what they think for this coming week.
We'll see you guys over there. Thank you.
