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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Aug. 12, 2025 Duration: 2:27:33Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. All right, what's up? good to get started yo yo
what's up I am looking forward to what everyone has to say on this one it's an interesting day we
got a couple earnings maybe coming up after the close I saw this Nvidia headline not that many
core weave kava kava's reporting but yeah let's jump right into it we're already a couple minutes I saw this NVIDIA headline. Eh, not that many. CoreWeave, Kava.
Yeah, Kava's reporting.
But yeah, let's jump right into it.
We're already a couple minutes late.
What are you watching on this market today?
Intel's looking nice.
Just saying.
I'm just watching all-time highs. Apple not too bad.
Number go up.
All right.
You want to give us the rundown, and then we can kick right into it?
Yeah, absolutely.
A little quick market update here.
We did have the CPI prints this morning and the market, I guess I would say they loved it.
SPX, SPY up right at 1%, new all-time highs there.
QQQ, of course, also new all-time highs up 1.15%.
IWM, the rate cut odds, I haven't checked this since this morning, but they were up in the
90s. So it was between 90 and 94 when I was looking this morning for the September meeting.
IWM liking that 2.7% up over on the Russell. The Dow is also up 1%. The VIX is absolutely
crushing down below 15, down 8.5% over there. TLT and the dollar also down a little bit on the day. Some of the big
names obviously have been moving around. Bitcoin still stuck under the 120. Ethereum and Solana
are having a huge day though. Ethereum's up 6%. Solana up 7%. And some of the big names,
I know everyone watches MAG7 type of names. Meta was the big outperformer today,
up 3%. New all-time highs there. Broadcom also up 2.5%. Those are the two ones that kind of stand
out to me. NVIDIA, not even a huge part of this. Amazon, not either a huge part of this rally,
and the market still doesn't care. Is the market still able to continue pushing to all-time highs?
Evan, is there anything outside of that that you wanted to add on?
I gave you a little bit of a sassy mark before when we started a minute or too late.
I thought that was a fantastic review of the day.
So I'll give you your flowers as well.
Perfect.
I really don't have much I need to add in on that.
Perfect.
Yeah.
And then, of course, the big news story of the day.
There's, of course, maybe some other ones.
If any of those are on your radar, make sure. bring them up. I would love to talk about them. But obviously, the core inflation rate CPI came out this morning, month over month. We were basically in line with the consensus 0.3. The year over year is sitting at 3.1. The actual inflation rate, 2.7 year over year versus the 2.8 consensus. That
was the little bit of a beat there. So that was interesting on that. And I'm sure we'll hear some
thoughts on that, but obviously the market seemed to love it. As I'm looking through some of the
headlines that I have posted already today, the ones that are standing out to me, the perplexity
Google one, obviously I do some work the perplexity Google one. Obviously,
I do some work with perplexity, so that's cool,
but I think that was more of
some decent marketing. I thought this President
Trump-Goldman Sachs
kind of thing going on was
intriguing. I think the move on Intel
today within that.
What about the Trump
truth, I guess is the term?
About... Basically saying he's going to sue Powell if he doesn't cut rates, which maybe that's reading between the lines a little bit. But I know a lot of people were kind of reading it that way as he's basically threatening a lawsuit against Powell unless Powell cuts rates over the Fed expansion.
Yeah, I didn't think that was good, but I didn't think that was good,
but they're pretty much everything signaled they're going to be cutting rates next time anyway.
So I don't know. I don't know.
I don't want to give too many more thoughts on that.
That was the one that I was like, all right, what are we doing here?
But for me, the Goldman Sachs one, this seems to be a theme that might be going on.
We'll see if it works well with the Intel one,
but there seems
to be a trade developing. You get called out by the president for how bad you are. You're going
to come in, bend the knee over the next day, and then your stock price goes up to 5% the next day
after that. We'll see. I want to roll these calls for the Intel calls into next week because they're
going to make that announcement, and I want to get out. But it's just an interesting time.
I thought that was the thing that was standing out the most for me.
Oclo had a headline in the middle of the day.
It's just kind of interesting off of those earnings yesterday.
So that one's up 8%.
I also talked some shit about ASTS and how I like Rocket Lab better.
But ASTS telling me the market doesn't care about my thoughts.
It was up 10% today.
I thought that was a little interesting as well so congrats to them yeah there was a there was a good amount going on
under the scene over these last couple days and a lot of small mid medium-sized companies are
working today the broad market this is a I don't know I'm sitting here not bearish so I'm excited
to hear what other people have to come in and say.
Boom. There you have it.
Let's jump into the panel a little bit here
and see what's...
Actually, last thing. I'm watching this bullish IPO.
It's not an IPO that I'm bullish on.
The company's called Bullish.
It's overpricing or whatever.
I put in a request for 100 shares on Robinhood.
We'll see if we end up getting it.
It's silly season. I bet you it continues.
I have no idea, but this is one that I'm watching.
And if I can get my...
I asked for 100 shares of Figma.
I got one, so I didn't sell it.
If I get 100 shares of this one,
if Robinhood's listening, I promise I won't do this,
but I'm probably going to end up flipping it
if I can get a nice first day pop.
We'll see, though.
Anyone else watching that IPO?
If you sell it, don't they restrict you from joining additional IPOs for $60?
Yeah.
I don't know if I'm going to give up that card.
That's why I didn't sell the Figma IPO.
I'm still holding my one share of Figma.
FIG, guys.
I got in on the IPO.
I am now rich at my $89.11.
I have made $ 12. imagine if you
sold that and then anduril goes ipo in like the next couple of months that would really suck
they're not it's going to be a while but i do want that andrew ipo we'll see that one the one
share that robin hood will give you you're not going to get any shares of the andrew ipo unless
they they go out a different route it's just not going to happen you're gonna going to get any shares of the Android IPL. Unless they go out a different route, it's just not going to happen.
You're going to have to buy in the secondary market.
Sorry, kids.
All right, we can go around.
A lot of stories, last couple days.
Honestly, a lot of stuff's working.
A couple not, though.
There are some names on this 52-week low list,
if I'm looking at some of them.
Stocks that have hit new 52-week lows today.
Large cap stocks that hit new 52-week lows today.
Adobe is on here.
Salesforce is on here.
FactSet.
Monday.com is on here.
It's the most of them.
Versk, Fair Isaac, which is FICO.
So tax credit, tax scores on the low end, I guess.
Yeah, so there are a couple names here,
but definitely not as many on this 52-week high list.
Meta is also getting really close to passing
over a $2 trillion market cap for the first time,
joining the only other,
there would be the sixth company to join that club.
I did not know FactSet was publicly traded.
FDS.
Interesting.
Stocktalk, you in the bullish ipo you missed out on the figma one
all right he's probably he's probably walking leo i no i think they actually do a four mile walk to start the spaces every day that's why you don't hear him until the second hour options mike though
what do you what do you got for us um what's your thoughts on this market listen i feel i'm feeling i'm feeling
bullish i'm not saying we're not near the top but um i'm not saying that definitely not seeing
any bearishness oh i mean what do you want this market is relentless you know um we're suck it
mike that's what i want no i'm kidding i appreciate you being here
you know again i i i think this market's overlooking a ton of under the covers and it just doesn't care so i keep trading to the long side i'm not you know i'm not saying i've
not been trying to short anything but you know yesterday we closed on the lows we gapped up and
pushed that means tomorrow will probably come back down this market for the last two weeks goes the
opposite direction of the day before uh it is not trading under the covers particularly easily look at google that open then all the way
down put a new low of the day and before coming back this afternoon you get a lot of action like
that it's annoying that said you have meta a new all-time high abgo the smh is a new all-time highs
goldman sachs new all-time highs oh uh palantir which looked like death yesterday new all-time high. Goldman Sachs, new all-time highs. Oh, Palantir, which looked like death yesterday, new all-time highs.
And this market is just relentless.
The small caps are running today.
The banks had a nice move.
You know, for me today, I traded Circle out of the gate, made nice money on stock and
got quickly out of it just before it came crashing back down.
Caught some Google, caught some Meta, caught a little bit of an apple on a trade but um you
know i just either the names the setups aren't all that great anymore right they're feeling tired
you know when you look at them and you keep looking at the setups the setups just feel kind
of tired especially in tech the big tech names like you know are we really piling back into
palantir after one down day after the size size of that move? The answer is yes.
You know, so, you know, it's just the nature of it.
It's just the nature of this market.
So you just have to ignore it and just, you know,
hold your nose and trade the names that they want
and the names that are in play.
If you're trying to do anything but that,
you're going to just, you know,
you're trying to short this market
to an effort and absolute futility.
You know, I saw people out and buying
the VIX today because the VIX is too low. I'm like, have you ever looked at the VIX? We get
prints on this thing sub 10 or hangs in the 10 area for long periods of time.
You pulled up all this stuff. The market's just shrugging off everything right now. It just
really doesn't care. Mike, on that, one of the conversations we have on here a lot or at least we'll say Kevin Green brings it up is the cost to had your
portfolio the VIX goes down the cost gets cheaper and you can hedge yourself a
little bit better so in this environment like I'm okay to hear those arguments
but I feel like it's it's cheaper to protect yourself to downside and you can
still be like all right like like you're talking about their dance while the music
is dancing oh and you can but I mean people, these aren't people looking to,
they're not looking to hedge.
They were looking at me, they're thinking, you know,
we're going to reverse and we're going to have a hard fall.
And I'm like, what are you smoking here?
Because there's nothing to indicate this market wants to come down.
Two weeks ago, I thought maybe we might get some good selling.
And then we gapped up and that was the end of that, right?
We got a two-day sell-off for a 3% pullback and that was the end of it.
It's quiet overall, but the market's strong.
I mean, so it's just a matter of identifying.
What I missed is Unity.
Unity's having a beautiful day today in the markets.
SoFi had a nice day.
So is it getting a little bit old?
Yeah.
It's just getting a little bit old to see the same names over and over again,
but it's just what they want.
And you try to fight it, it's not going to work.
I thought Circle Report was interesting.
I didn't know if it was how good or bad it was.
It seemed pretty good on the surface, but they gapped it up and they dumped it.
I think CoreWeb tonight is going to be real interesting.
That's their first report too, I believe,
and I'm looking forward to seeing what they have to say there.
It's their second report. It's their second, too, I believe, and I'm looking forward to seeing what they have to say there.
It's their second report. It's their second, sorry.
Analysts still have no idea what's happening, but yeah.
Well, I think they're a hard one to figure out
because they have so much debt.
It's going to be a very hard one with that rental fee,
but it can be very good for a while,
but the debt load is going to be a problem down the road.
I sold my intel calls just after the open because I'm like yep okay uh you know came in bent a knee nothing new they're
trying to get out but it did push back up again today and apple up but you know kind of trading
into the thursday's high that 231 areas in the area needs to clear but holding it nicely even
amd and nvidia bounced back after china told uh China told their companies there not to buy any of their chips, their companies.
It's a weird market, Evan.
I don't know if you saw this headline at CNBC, too.
It was probably 15 minutes ago, maybe a little less, maybe a little more.
The U.S. Trump administration is still working out the details of its 15% export tax on NVIDIA and AMD and could bring deals of this kind to more companies.
White House Press Secretary Levitt said today.
So they still don't even know the full details yet, but they are going to bring it to other places.
I don't think I'm surprised at how NVIDIA and AMD have responded since.
AMD has been responding a little bit better, though.
I mean, again, I think somebody pointed out yesterday
if it's a $50 billion market you can get into
and it costs you 15%, that's the cost.
But if you take that aside,
that's just a very weird thing for us
and what we're doing there.
And if we're going to keep doing it, I don't know.
Very convoluted, everything that's going on.
Well, I think this Goldman Sachs thing today
is honestly more. I mean, this is the new strategy. We're going to call the CEO out. Convoluted everything that's going on. Well, I think this I think this Goldman Sachs thing today is
Honestly more I mean, this is the new strategy We're gonna call the CEO out get them to come to the office
Make a deal and go from there like there. There's a clear strategy developing up here. I mean, we're
Yeah, Tim cook
But it's wasn't it worrisome that anybody that doesn't like a diesel doesn't like what he's doing has to get called in and has to bend the knee?
I mean, aren't this country supposed to be able to say and we want to be different?
I mean, that worries me to my core as a person, not because of this.
It's like, you know, nobody's speaking up.
Everybody's just bending the knee.
It's like, is this really a good thing at the end of the day?
I don't know.
But you know what?
That's not really a stock conversation.
The stock conversation I'm thinking here is Intel stock is up 6% today.
I bought some cheap calls going into it.
I want to find a way to roll these into next week when they announce it and then probably sell out.
Announce what?
That is where my mind is going right now and see this strategy play out a couple times.
Announce what?
That they're still a piece of crap company and there's no easy fix for them?
Listen, that's not what we're talking about these trades here.
I agree, honestly.
My soul likes these great American companies
that have fallen off a little bit,
that are still in strong areas,
that if they can turn it around, there's there.
I do have a soft spot for those type of companies.
God, I've been buying PayPal a little little bit too that one hasn't gone well um but intel's
fooled me so many times so i don't know but this this trade here what's happened with apple
and a couple others it seems to be a theme a little a little short-term bet trader market
news seems a compelling one i just don't know what they could announce that's going to fix them
they are just in such a bad way and slightly you're just so much debt on that company and bad debt i don't know but yeah you know so we have uh three
days left this week you have some nice earnings tonight and you know for me the the move tomorrow
is probably you know down but we'll see you Maybe this is the time they keep pushing us up.
Maybe we finally break out of this mess and move higher,
but all time highs.
So whatever weakness is, the market is quick to buy it back.
It's not letting things go far.
Godfather, you have any thoughts
on the conversation we're having here having here anything you want to throw
into the mix yeah for sure um so look at you know aside from the for sure forget about it sorry
the uh you know aside from the um the cpi uh induced rallies we're seeing in the iwm today
and uh you know a sort of smattering of uh of these smaller cap companies. The other stat you need to look at is the MAG7 just reached a new all-time high in terms of outperformance relative to the 493.
So cue the market breadth whiners.
But look, I think seasonality-wise is a difficult time for small caps,
and it's clear that investors continue to assign a high valuation premium to the perceived safety of the large cap companies.
And of course, these large cap companies are trafficking in the biggest theme in the market.
Outside of the key themes, the market's been in profit-taking mode.
Just touching on some of these key themes, it was called out Solana and ETH, Ethereum breaking through 4,500 today.
The key theme there, of course, is this whole stablecoin and tokenization of real-world assets onto the blockchain,
which if you followed this for a long time, it's sort of the second go around.
It looks like it's finally got some traction.
You know, there's a lot of talk, of course, about stable coins, which is really just a tokenization of the U.S. dollar.
And, you know, when you get the Treasury sector, you know, coming out saying, hey, you know, this should be a two trillion dollar market by 2028, and it's $250 billion today, people start
looking even beyond that to these other sort of real-world assets. And yeah, Boston Consulting
Group is out with a headline saying that the $13 billion in real-world assets that are tokenized
on blockchains, 83% of that on ETH, by the way, is going to grow to $16 trillion by 2028.
So, you know, this is becoming a focused theme.
Obviously, we saw Robinhood jump into this and, you know, give tokenized portions of,
what was it, Andrel and SpaceX? Or or was it XAI I can't remember.
Open AI and SpaceX.
Yeah there you go. So you got that you've got you know Bank of America endorsing Ethereum as a global
stablecoin settlement rail. You know there's I've been doing some work on this little company called the bioseg which looks to be a shell that's uh
now um embarking on a tokenization strategy they've uh they've brought in stream x as a fully
owned subsidiary they've got a 1.1 billion dollar equity line of credit um that they're looking to
that they're looking to buy gold bullion with and then tokenize it on Solana and pursue a gold treasury strategy in addition to tokenizing other commodities.
So, you know, this thing has been extremely strong on the 7th of July when they announced the equity line of credit,
1.1 billion.
This thing, even after a run from sub a dollar to six, spiked to 14, and it looks to be basing
and coming back again.
So I'm just trying to wrap my mind around how real this tokenization of real world assets
Is this sort of the next extension of this theme? And if so,
you know, where do you skate to in terms of looking for where the puck is going to go in that? So
that's been a big focus of my research today. BSGM is the one name that's come on my radar
screen. I'm sure there are others that I'm missing. In terms of other themes, you know,
we saw the Barron's article today about the DOE tapping 11 startups to build a nuclear reactor by mid-26. And, you know,
we just went through earnings for most of the big, you know, unregulated or utilities that
have an unregulated portion. And these things have really demanding valuations for the type
of companies they are, but they certainly don't look to be going anywhere in terms of the multiples.
And we're seeing a bleed down.
Obviously, LEU has been talked about a lot here by Stock Talk and others.
If you look at this group.
You know, I don't think I've heard anyone else talk about LEU.
So we'll give them credit and detraction if it ever comes down. Yeah, but look at the group now, and you're starting to see this strength bleed into some of the smaller cap companies,
like Lightbridge, LTBR, up 21% today.
The dog I have in this hunt is ASPI, which is pursuing enrichment through their laser enrichment strategies
of all sorts of radioactive isotopes
that are used in nuclear medicine, but also for producing HALU, high assay, low enriched uranium
along the lines of what LEU is doing with the incumbent centrifuge technology.
So that theme isn't going anywhere. I thought it was interesting that, you know, on top of all that, you know, I took a look at what Kobe Ese was saying today,
and they were saying that, you know, data center energy reached 5% of total U.S. power demand.
And that's going to 10 in the next five years, some 40% all uh load uh to the network is uh is data center and um
yeah when you got a kegger of 23 percent um it's it's clear that this this is the new ai bottleneck
so um in terms of key themes in the market um if you don't own a little bit of both sides of
the barbell in terms of quality and
perhaps some of these smaller cap names in that sector, I think you're probably missing out.
I think there's some sustainability there. I'm watching, you've heard me talk about housing
and how I think that this is going to be one of the sleeper trades of the second half of this year.
the sleeper trades of the second half of this year. We saw NAIL, which is the ETF on housing
and building products, 3X ETF, go back above 70 again for the first time since we saw that
weakness in the non-farm payrolls. This has been a great trading vehicle. Obviously, these levered
ETFs are just for trading, but buying it under 70 and then selling it on strength.
but buying it under 70 and,
and then selling it on strength.
You know,
look,
to the extent we get some,
some weakness here.
Yeah.
What was the one you were talking about?
It was the sector before this one.
You were talking about energy for,
for the data centers.
Yes.
Well,
you can finish up,
but I want to double,
I want to double click on,
on that one.
Yeah,
I was just talking about how we're seeing this rally.
That's been, you know, strong in the VSTs and TLNs and the CEGs of the world and so on, and the LEUs bleed into the LTBRs and the ASPIs,
some of these smaller names.
So there's that, I think, that story about data center energy consumption.
On that, and I'll come back to you stock talk
i want to bring you into this and just godfather kind of came out with a statement it's kind of
becoming clear that the bottleneck within these ai data centers is looking like to be this energy
side of it definitely you seem to so i'm curious your just general thoughts on leu is one area
what are what are other some areas maybe that he talked about?
Maybe I don't know if you have any thoughts on those
or if there's ones that maybe are just outside the LEU
that's making the portfolio.
Yeah, you have to decide how you want to play the nuclear theme.
There's three ways, right?
Is it even just nuclear?
There's the SMRs, there's the unregulated electrical utilities,
and then there's the nuclear nuclear
nuclear uh fuel names yep yep that's it and and i guess you can play raw uranium names if you
if you're interested in you know exploration side of things but um yeah uh personally why is nuclear
the answer here um so nuclear is not the only way to play it there's there's a couple reasons i
actually talked about this we had a workshop on sunday and i covered the nuclear thematic and
sort of talked about why i think it has more durability and the stocks will trade higher than the peers. So somebody brought up NatGas to me when we were talking about this. They brought it up to me earlier in the year as well. And they were like, hey, well, shouldn't the NatGas stocks be trading at these multiples or shouldn't the NatGas stocks have run 300% each because that's a more immediate solution than nuclear?
And that to me is sometimes when people,
and I always say not to complicate things,
but that's an oversimplification.
Nat gas stocks are never going to trade at the multiples
that nuclear stocks trade at.
There's multiple reasons for that.
Perceived growth is a big one, right?
Nuclear has been a relatively stagnant industry
in the United States for a couple of decades now.
There's a perception that this new awakening of investment and interest will lead to
material growth in that industry in a way where legacy industries like NatGas or Peeker power
plants for the grid, those businesses just aren't getting the same multiples. And they've had plenty
of time to catch up to this trade, right? trade didn't start this year it's been running for at
least two and a half years now if you look at the lows of those nuclear stocks two two and a half
years ago is when you would have found them and there was i will say there's something that changed
when i feel like at a part when we've been having these conversations there was a point when la was
going to shut down like their last nuclear reactor on these at some point in these spaces shut down there's and stuff
there was a reflection point it feels like within the last year or two last year with the
constellation energy deal with the microsoft constellation energy deal which is the biggest
deal ever signed by a tech company for energy ever right so that deal is what ignited this because, you know, tech companies aren't
traditionally investing in the energy supply chain. And that was like the first step forward
here. And then you had everyone follow up. Meta, you know, I mean, obviously Tesla is already
indirectly involved, not indirectly, they're directly involved in energy. So that wasn't a
surprise with them deploying Tesla mega packs at the data centers but everyone else met a Microsoft Amazon
their investments like you look at Amazon's relationship with talent
energy that became significantly more material in the last 18 months post
this realization that all of these guys need to be invested in in in power
producers and then constellation energy microsoft amazon talent by the way just got a notification kratos up five percent kratos up five percent today yeah notification
pretty much everything is up today i wasn't even gonna bother i mean i have 15 positions right now
but yeah anyways those are the power producers and that's where the tickets have gone for the
big tech companies like godfather said there's's a handful of enrichment plays that you can look to.
ASPI and Lightbridge, LTBR, are the more speculative ones.
They're developing new methods to enrich uranium as opposed to traditional centrifuge technology which Centris is using.
But as of today, the only viable enricher at scale is still Centris is using. But as of today, the only viable
enricher at scale is still Centris. It's not to say that Lightbridge and ASPI won't
get there and they are they do have more upside from the potential of oh, you can speculate
on on what the development and deployment of those products might look like. But Centris today,
if you want your enrichment exposure is the only way to get it not only in the United States, but
globally. That's why I continue to remain in the name. I think at a $4 billion market cap, that's just egregious.
Stocks should be trading at a $10 billion market cap, in my opinion.
But anyway, that's the nuclear fuel space.
And then you have the SMR plays, which the SMR plays is probably the most complicated
to navigate because I talked about this yesterday, but it's really hard to anchor on valuation
with those names because building nuclear reactors isn't exactly, I mean, not traditionally because SMRs are a relatively
new thing, but it's not traditionally a highly profitable or high margin endeavor. Okay. So
it's hard for people to wrap their minds around the idea that these companies can be worth a lot.
Now, today, the DOE made a very direct statement with 10
specific companies that were selected. And both of the ones that were publicly traded went up 10%
today. Aqua went up 10% and HOND, which is a SPAC that's going to be merging with Terrestrial
Energy, who was also on the list of small modular reactor companies today. Those two stocks both ran
10%. Now, the other SMR stocks did not run with them, or at least I looked at New Scale today,
I think it was flat on the day.
Why?
Well, New Scale wasn't on the list,
and New Scale is trading at a 10 billion market cap.
Stocks tucked under the 50-day,
didn't reclaim it today with the rest of the market
being green.
I'm not saying New Scale's going lower,
but that's not a great look.
And so there will be some differentiation now
in the SMR plays based on the directly outlined policy benefits that they're going to receive.
Because this administration isn't coming out and saying, oh, we're going to support small modular development.
They're saying we're going to support small modular reactor development with these 10 specific companies.
And could companies be added to that list? Sure.
I'm not saying companies that aren't on that list are doomed, but that's a nod in the right direction. And, you know, what all these companies need for reactors,
they need reactor fuel, which currently is high assay, low enriched uranium. Hallyu, which we,
I don't know, I think I talked about, gave a dissertation to Evan on Hallyu back in May,
when we first talked about Centris on these spaces. Centris stock is obviously,
you know, more than doubled since then. So, yes, you can play nuclear with any of those plays. And if you don't want to play nuclear and you want to play the electricity angle in a different way,
you can just buy the power producers directly, the TLNs, the CEGs, the Vistras of the world.
Or if you don't want to play any of those, you can look at how some other
plays have done that are indirectly related to data center powering. You look at Bloom Energy,
which provides fuel cells and signed a deal with Oracle. Bloom Energy stock has more than doubled
in the last couple of months, right? It's like 40 plus today. I mean, we traded it from 20 to 28,
and I got out of it, and it just kept going. I got into it near the 200-day moving average of 20.
I think my alert went out back in, I don't know, June. And then we got out of it and it just kept going. I got into it near the 200-day moving average of 20. I think my alert went out back in, I don't know, June. And then we got out of it when it was like 28.
And then the next week, there was another catalyst. It went to 35, went to 40. So maybe you can look
at fuel cells if you want to. You can look at energy storage systems, which frankly, outside
of Tesla's energy storage business, most of the other publicly traded energy storage place stocks
have not been performing well uh so their management
teams haven't been executing well but there's a tons of tons and tons of ways to play electricity
you could even play the cable electric cable providers right those stocks have gone up non-stop
so um there's so many ways to play you don't have to play it through nuclear i just think nuclear
has more sex appeal i think the multiples will be, which has proven to be true so far, and I think will continue to be true. And I also think there's...
What's the regulatory landscape look like that? Because I'm thinking like these weed
stocks and stuff back a couple of years ago. Do we get those dark years when nuclear kind of
fades out? The regulatory landscape, like that has been a headwind for nuclear. And now it seems
like that is changing.
Right. Timelines are being accelerated. Red tape is being lifted.
The administration is basically saying, like, we want you to develop nuclear.
Could those tailwinds be temporary and only last for the course of this presidency if the next administration doesn't pick up on those efforts?
Yeah, they could. But it depends on how much infrastructure and investment gets deployed in the next four years. That dictates the staying power of the thematic, not whether or not it's interesting.
Still, it'll always be interesting.
It's just there's something about nuclear energy that easily attracts investors and traders.
And so I think there'll be a moment where, you know, the market says, OK, there's been enough capital investment in the space that we can start modeling out the growth for some of these companies based on the expansion of their
infrastructure. And for a lot of the players in the United States, like, you know, UUU, which is
energy fuels, which I was talking earlier about, you can play the theme. This is one area I kind
of didn't bring up. If you want to bring up the uranium milling and mining process, you can look
at uranium energy cor uh, corp,
you see which got a price target upgrade from Goldman this morning from 10 to
13. That was actually a nice note. I thought,
I think that stock rate five 5% today on that note,
but nice note from Goldman, nice daily chart on that thing too. Um,
if you want to get access to uranium mining, that's a great way to play it.
And it's a pure play.
If you want to get access to uranium milling at the white missile, uh,
mill that you buy you you you and you
also get indirect rare earth exposure there because they've started a small
pilot program for rare earth refining at the same uranium mill that they're
milling uranium so I don't know I just named what 15 tickers they're related to
the energy industry you could buy any of those in theory I'm noters there related to the energy industry. You could buy any
of those in theory. I'm not saying to buy any specific one of them. You could buy any of those
in theory and have exposure to this theme. So you don't need to feel like you have to own one
particular stock or like if you miss the stock that doubled, you don't have to feel like you
have to chase it. Like there's a lot of ways to get exposure. And some of these names have not
run as much as the others. So, you know, if you're that kind of risk reward investor where you look at that sort of stuff and ask yourself you know is my
entry good then there's plenty of names out there it's not just the the popular ones and the cool
thing about the pure plays uh this last comment i'll make before we go back to panel 10 we still
have a lot of people get to the cool thing about the pure plays is they're smid caps and so they
move much more quickly there's much more room for speculation you know you're not going to move 150 billion market cap on just pure
speculation but you can move a 2 billion market cap on pure speculation so yeah that's kind of
my general thoughts on the power industry but i could go for longer but i know we have the panel
to go to so maybe i'll make some more more comments later. People should just cut in.
Where I was trying to bring the conversation was, you know, I'm trying to focus on where
this administration points their guns next. You know, obviously trade has been front and center,
but we've seen, you know, these initiatives. We just talked at length about nuclear, but,
you know, we saw it in terms of data center, you know, Trump basically eliminating red tape for new construction.
And we saw it in accelerated depreciation.
We saw it in next-gen military drones specifically.
You know, we saw it in crypto, which was, you know, electronic armor.
All right, should I go long this TMC stock?
Is that what you're telling me?
I'm not recommending any specific stock.
Have you seen this one
it's that one that's trying to like i i don't think it's i watched a video that claimed it
wasn't real but it's like it's that one that's trying to like mine rare earth metals off the
bottom of the ocean right so rare earth is obviously another one but um and and crypto
which which we've talked about um but you know, I honestly think that the one that people
are sleeping on here is housing. You know, we are going to get, look, we've got another non-farm
payrolls report coming up September 5th. I think the narrative in the market is that CPI is slowly
becoming, you know, less important and the Fed is looking past, is looking past the tariffs as a one-time tax.
And it's about arguing about the pace of the rate cutting cycle, not sort of the direction.
And all of this leaning on Powell and trying to get rates lower,
obviously the biggest single beneficiary of that is housing. But you've also heard, you know, various things,
you know, from Trump himself, like, like this, you know, talking about eliminating capital gains
on primary residences, which, you know, we have here in, in Canada, it's like the one thing we
have in Canada that you guys don't have there. It's crazy. But there's all these other initiatives,
and you can go back to the campaign promises, you know, that were on the table for crypto and
all the rest, but there was a ton on
the table in terms of housing affordability as well. So there's lots of things that the
administration can do. And if you combine that with a lower interest rate environment,
you combine that with a sector like these home builders, they've improved their capital efficiency
massively over the last number of years. I mean, and the P's here are sub 15.
And now you've got ROICs and ROEs that are, you know, 15 going as high as 30 percent in some companies.
So, yeah, I really think that this is an underappreciated area.
I talked about Nail as a trading vehicle, and that's kind of where we're at right now.
Every time people start focusing on lower rates. Have you looked into RKT at all?
Are you not buying single stocks? So right now, I'm just trading NAIL on
sympathy moves to lower rates. I want to see some actual traction on tax credits for mortgage
insurance or further mortgage interest deductions or
new initiatives for first-time homebuyers or other low-income housing tax credits,
all these kind of housing affordability things. There's been hints on this from the banking side
in terms of making it easier to access, but we haven't seen anything specific yet targeting housing or,
you know, credits to home builders, these types of things. But I think it's coming.
And, you know, irrespective of actual, you know, specific initiatives from the administration,
we're going into a rate, the part of the rate cycle that housing benefits the most.
And with a market that, you know, as we just talked about, lacks a lot of breadth.
This is one sector.
I guess the other one is financials, but that's been a relatively better performer.
The one that's completely been crickets in all of this is housing.
So anyway, that's where I was going on that conversation.
The other tidbit that I...
You got me excited on that one. I'll let you finish up, but I was going on that conversation. The other tidbit that I...
You got me excited on that one.
I'll let you finish up, but I want to dig into there.
The other, and I just want to quickly go back to Ethereum because this is a big theme, this tokenization theme
and all the rest of it.
My worry with Ethereum is that the fact about Bitcoin
that it has that kind of fixed number and Ethereum is always going to
continue diluting on you. It's one thing that I don't know. So here's the stat you can chew on
then, Evan. And this comes right out of a biased source, if you will. It's the PowerPoint
presentation for SBET. But they're claiming that over the, if you look at the last five years,
the R-squared between the Ethereum market cap and the value of assets that are secured on the
Ethereum blockchain is around 78%. And that for every $2 of real world assets that are secured
by the network, the market cap grows by a dollar. You put that in the context of, you know,
Besant talking about just US dollars, which, you know, stable coins went from 5 billion in 2020
to 250 billion today. And he's talking about 2 trillion three years from now, less than three
years from now. And then, you know, think about all these other real world assets that are people
are working on in terms of tokenizing commodities, gold, all the rest of that. And there's really no end to this. But Boston Consulting
has thrown out this $16 trillion number from $13 billion where we are today. So anyway,
this is one of the key drivers of this theme. And yeah, combine that with these ETH treasury
companies, as long as they're getting a premium in the markets raising money and buying up Ethereum and pushing it higher as well.
So anyway, I talked a lot today. I'll shut up now.
No, you sparked a lot of good thoughts. Honestly, I want to try and what I would love to do is DocTalk might have set a bad precedent and I'll blame him and then get to a point.
I want to try and dig into one or two of these topics, not bounce around to a bunch of them.
But when we were talking about the housing, love you all, great spaces, make sure you're
following all the amazing speakers, really smart people.
SoFi though was another theme, this rate cut area, options Mike talked about a little bit
there and now he left.
Is anyone watching SoFi in any of these payments?
He kind of mentioned the financials there.
I started a position, SoFi, cost basis around 21.58 around the earnings.
Hamid, is the financial sector anything you've watched?
I know I can go in and look at your portfolio right now,
but I'll go in and take a look in a second.
Welcome as well.
You watch the SoFis of the world at all? Thanks, Evan. I don't have any position in SoFi, but of course, as you know,
I have a strong position in Robinhood. So financial sector is definitely within my...
Why not rotate?
Rotate into SoFi. That's actually a good possibility.
I mean, I refuse to allow you to do that. Do not sell Robinhood from SoFi.
Don't do it.
Do not listen to that.
But here's the thing, though.
Hamid likes to sell his positions.
I'm surprised he's still holding Robinhood
at the position he's at.
Well, no.
I mean, I sell some of my position, but...
Okay, can I say...
Don't take that in a bad way.
Hamid likes to come in and take profits up 100%, 200%.
What's your Robinhood cost basis?
You're up a lot. That's the type of thing that Hamid goes in and trim and take profits up 100%, 200%. What's your Robinhood cost basis? You're up a lot.
That's the type of thing that Hamid goes in and trims.
Look at back.
You take the gains.
Right.
That's a good thing.
I have like 1,000% gain.
In some cases, some of my Robinhood shares, I have had it since $7 a share.
So what is that, 1,300% gain?
So I've definitely trimmed quite a bit.
And then I actually bought some more in April when the tariff thing happened in the 30s
and low 40s.
And yeah, I've been trimming because it's a higher risk stock today than it was when
it was, you know, a $20 or $30 stock, right?
But still to this day, like Robinhood represents 24% of my portfolio.
So it's like, it's still either the number one or number two largest position in my portfolio,
depending on how Rocket Lab is doing that day or how Robinhood is doing.
They switch back and forth between one and two.
I'm surprised you haven't,
have you trimmed any of them?
Because I mean,
I'm seeing,
I'm looking at your portfolio and you're up a nice chunk on both of them.
Yeah.
It's the third largest position.
Is that actually?
Yeah.
So I,
I have probably sold a half of my Robin,
Robin hood shares over,
over time.
But you know, because of how much it's gone up, it's still a
pretty significant chunk of my portfolio. I've now taken out more money out of both Robin Hood
and Rocket Lab than I have put into them. And they still represent half of my portfolio.
I was saying, girl math is whatever, boy math is that when I buy a stock, it goes up 2x, I take out half, now it's free.
So, yeah, nice to see.
Yeah, but I've learned to be a little bit more patient than just doubling.
But yeah, I think I've taken out close to three times now.
As much as I've put into Robinhood, I've taken out,
and it's still 24% of my portfolio.
So it's been a crazy ride.
Same with Rocket Lab,
same with Meta.
And, you know,
I expect the same will happen with Bumble.
DocTalk, you gave us a hell no.
Is that the love for Robinhood or the hate for SoFi?
No, I love Robinhood.
Have you looked into these lenders at all?
I mean, we're starting to cut some rates.
The RKTs, the whatever in the world.
I don't find SoFi business to be...
Dexy enough? Is that what we were going to say?
No, I just think at scale it won't be attractive.
I think at scale it'll look a lot like other financials.
Yeah, look, I think the thing that distinguishes Robinhood
from the rest of the financial publicly traded ecosystem
is that there is a tidal wave coming in inheritance that we talked a lot a lot
three or four years ago it was all over the news headlines and no one's really talked about it but
that's coming in the next decade trillions of dollars are going to be inherited by young people
and where are they going to put that money you think they're going to go to jp more all right
here's what i want to ask everybody let's see see how many we can. In the bottom right of your screen, there is a purple 20 down there.
Go in.
If you could just put your age and what broker you use.
Or like where you put some of the money or investment.
I'd be so curious.
I know the flash sample you're trying to do.
And I imagine most people are.
I think it will be a lot of Robin Hood.
I think it will be a lot of Robin Hood.
I'm just curious.
It's going to be a lot of Robin Hood and Weeble.
But I'm saying we can make that conclusion without doing the flash sample.
But yeah, sure.
If you're in the audience and you're under 30...
Alright, don't do it.
If you're under 30 years old...
Stock says this is dumb.
Fuck you all.
Don't participate.
Alright, I apologize.
This is the family-friendly show,
and we will not curse.
That won't happen much.
You can play this in your car.
I appreciate it.
Evan's on one today uh so
listen i want to host an extra cup of coffee this morning or something um but anyway yeah so
look without if you want to do in the audience if you want to appease evan just go do it comment
what broker you use if you're under 30 but without doing that i'm pretty sure we can safely make the
conclusion that most people under the age of 30 who are using the markets are either
using Robinhood or Webull or some other commission-free alternative brokerage, right?
And in North America, the predominant leader in that category is Robinhood, far and above, right?
Robinhood does way more, has way more AUM than Webull. I don't even know what the comparison is,
but it's like they have way more and they're growing faster.
The retention is better, all that stuff.
So if you say, okay, there are maybe three companies
that are capturing most of the attention
for investors under the age of 30.
And in the next decade, trillions of dollars
will flow into the pockets of those
investors, where are they going to put that money? I think the short answer to that question is
Robinhood. That's why I still own the stock. And I agree with Hamid that it's a very, very
expensive stock compared to, I mean, when Hamid first bought in the sevens, I wasn't that early,
but I bought 15 and 20 calls when the stock was 10, about 15 and 20 leaps.
And so I had like a close to a $20 cost basis, 1974 to be exact.
So I'm up a lot too, not as much as me, but I'm up a lot.
I could sell here, but I'm not selling because of that philosophy that I have,
which is that the story for Robinhood has just started. And if they're able to capture the ecosystem of Europeans and Asians who are interested in investing in American stocks, that unlocks an entirely new total addressable market for them.
Whether or not they do it through this tokenization thing they want to do or not, whether or not that culminates, they can find another way to offer stocks to those people.
I mean, there are companies offering, you know, U.S. stock trading in India. So it's not like it
can't be done. You know, it's just it's a harder process without tokenization. So, yeah, I think
they have tons of tailwinds in the long term. I think it's like I think there's a reason the stock
has been bid so aggressively at 100 billion market cap is it the same conversation as it was at like a 20 billion
market cap no but um you know i think they still have tailwinds so big tailwinds not just like oh
intra-year tailwinds i mean like decade-long tailwinds uh from the inheritance yeah i i tend
to i tend to agree and and one of the things things with Robinhood is that the way that they're executing on product and strategy, it you know that the industry itself is large enough to allow for 10x growth.
And Robinhood is definitely like sort of checks all those boxes.
The industry is big enough for them to easily have 10x growth.
The management and product and strategy is just spot on.
They're about to introduce a banking product for people to do banking with Robinhood.
So could I see these guys growing from roughly $4 billion run rate of revenue to $40 billion in 10
years? Absolutely. It seems like they're just on that trajectory. They might even get there faster
than 10 years. When I looked at SoFi, there was a number of different little
issues I had with them. And also the whole lending thing creates this leverage position,
which if all of a sudden default rates go up, can really be catastrophic for a lender.
So Robinhood doesn't have that kind of risk as SoFi does. But I mean, I don't want to diss SoFi. I think SoFi is probably a good company and a good stock to own.
But that's the reason I'm not in it myself.
Yeah, I still haven't sold any of my hood.
But see if we can spark some discussion here.
StockGeek, we haven't heard you on this one.
You got any thoughts on the conversation that we've had so far?
Any topics that you're,
you're interested in right now?
I'm a little under the weather,
but just listening in,
you know,
I've been involved in nuclear stuff as well.
I'm kind of,
kind of wondering what stock talks and your take is these days on GSRT, why you think it hasn't moved.
Other than that, man, I've really been enjoying the run in the cannabis stocks because I had a small position there.
They may have got ahead of themselves a little bit in terms of the regulatory catalyst, but a lot of potential explosiveness still there.
And I'm just kind of sitting on that one.
So yeah, curious if anybody's trading those stocks.
Those are really the two things on my mind today.
Yeah, I still own it
because it's really low risk for where my entry was.
But yeah, GSRT started running,
got to the 11s and then Pew happened.
I don't know if you know what Pew is.
It was-
Yeah, grab a gun.
Yeah, so it was CLBR.
It ran really hard pre-merger.
And then post-merger, it dumped like 90%.
Like a lot of SPACs do, right?
That's why I don't hold SPACs through merger.
Some people do.
I don't.
If I want to buy them back, I'll buy them back later.
But a lot of people held and didn't understand SPACs.
This is another thing too, right?
Like people see tickers online
and they hear people talk about SPACs or whatever
and they don't understand them and they buy it anyway.
That's foolish to do, you know?
People shouldn't do that.
And so, yeah, a lot of retailers got caught
holding that stock through merger
because they thought, you know, it's a Trump stock.
It's a Trump Jr. stock.
It's going to go up, yada, yada, yada.
And it did go up a lot pre-merger,
but the trade was pre-merger. And so people held it through merger, got killed,
and then all the SPACs got dumped that day. And so GSRT peeled off the 11s and then, you know,
they haven't really come back for a lot of those pre-merger SPACs since. And on top of that,
they are not as advanced in the regulation process as some of the other smr stocks namely oklo and hond which i just
mentioned earlier which is another spac they're behind gsrt in the merger process though so um
and they are trading higher above nav than gsrt is they were trading like 11 this morning i think
as of the close they're trading like 1180 but so there's more risk from a net asset value
standpoint um that which is how you should think about pre-merger specs in my view if you want to
size them aggressively you should think about them in a nav risk standpoint so that you know
that's really how you trade specs you size aggressively as close to nav as possible and
then sell the pops that's like the way to trade SPACs for people who don't know. But anyway, yeah.
So GSRT just got caught up in the SPAC selling
and got pinned and didn't run.
I frankly thought it would run more pre-merger.
I think they all would have run more pre-merger
had CLBR not happened,
but that kind of killed sentiment in the space.
So yeah, I think that's what happened there.
But I still think if you look at it
relative to all the other SMR plays, I still think the valuation is attractive, even though they're not as ahead in the regulatory schedule.
I mean, it's one fifth of the lowest market cap in the SMR space, which is NNE.
Still one fifth of that.
And then you look at, you know, the OCLOS and the SMRs, which are leading that space in valuation,
they're trading 10 plus billion.
So I do still think there's valuation arbitrage for the pre-merger SMR SPAC targets.
I think that that like it's a no brainer valuation arbitrage.
The question is, will SPAC sentiment be strong enough pre-merger to run those things?
That I don't know.
But if you can get them at NAV or close to NAV, it's pretty low risk.
So, you know, it's kind of like you hold and if they pop they pop sort of thing but yeah i don't think yeah i don't think
the um merger date has been officially set on no they have not not on either of them yeah hond
actually hasn't done any of their like they need to do a lot more filings before that even comes close to clear. GSRT, you'll probably know by Q3-ish when that date will be.
Maybe it'll even be a little, sorry, Q4-ish by when that date will be.
Maybe it might be a little bit earlier than that.
But yeah, you just have to kind of wait for the filings to come and eventually for the merger vote to be set.
And then there's a redemption date prior to the merger vote to be set and then there's a redemption date prior to the merger vote and if
you're somebody that does not want to hold through merger and the SPAC is not trading above nav by
a redemption date you should redeem your shares because that's how you get the zero risk attitude
right like people don't get that they're like why is this back zero risk at nav the SPAC is
zero risk at nav because you can redeem your shares at NAV.
SPACs are required to hold the necessary cash to offer redemption.
And so when you, let's say the SPAC's about to go into merger, the NAV was 10.22, you bought it 10.24, the stock is trading at 10.09.
Don't sell at 10.09. There's some retail traders that do this. They just sell at 10.09. Don't sell at 10.09.
There's some retail traders that do this.
They just sell at 10.09.
Do not do that.
File for redemption of the shares.
You can do it through your brokerage pretty easily.
Just call them if it's not obvious on how to do it.
And you can redeem your shares at the net asset value.
So that's why it's their quote unquote nears your risk. Your risk is
effectively how much above net asset value you buy them at. Of course, this only applies
pre-merger. Okay. So if anyone missed that, just go back and listen to the recording of
that explanation, but that's how they work.
I do want to cut in here. I know we're getting closer to the market closing and we have one or two earnings that people care about.
So I want to shift this conversation and we'll take it back because I think there is some alpha there and there are some potential opportunities that might be coming forward.
So, yeah, definitely a conversation we can come back on. I'll actually make note on it.
Stocksniper, I know Kava, they're reporting earnings today. I have heard you talk about
this one for a while. I have also
said this in the past. I like to add stocks
to my watch list. I will add one
share. Sometimes I'll add a couple, honestly.
I added Kava to my
watch list at $144.35.
So, yeah.
I'm down 40% on my
Kava. Listen,
we'll talk about it later. later but give me what are you watching for
these earnings am I gonna be up tomorrow um I gonna be green I just gotta say dude that that
was like one time in after hours that's like the worst luck I've ever seen um yeah so today we have
three names that are reporting that people care about um kava is definitely just give me the kava
give me the kava for now because I know that's what you care about i care about kava the most for sure as well
um the implied move on kava is eight dollars and 61 cents or 10.31 percent um last quarter there
wasn't much of a reaction same with the one before that but um four quarters like same store sales
or anything um say that one more time the parable same store sales and stuff like that. I would imagine that's going to be a super
important number for them. So the line to
watch on Kava is locations.
A lot of people are going to be watching
for how many locations that
have been open. I don't have the expectation
right here.
Give me just one second.
Let me open up this options chain. 86 yeah juice intel was so not juiced is honestly kind of kind of pretty to look at that's crazy so yeah with kava basically the data line to watch that
most people are looking for is the locations.
We're assuming or expecting 24 locations in this quarter two period.
But, you know, Brett Shulman has been known or notorious for slowing down the company's expansion to control quality control.
We've seen that happen about three different times in the history of Kava, and they haven't been around for that long.
about three different times in the history of kava and they haven't been around for that long
it's just because they have expanded quite rapidly in some quarters opening above 50 stores in the
matter of only three months but the revenue we're not looking for some crazy revenue record high
again also similar to chipotle kava also really respect seasonalities in quarter four and in
quarter one typically you spend you tend to see a lot of people spend more money on goods and less money on food. That was pretty much expected. But when we saw the
quarter one revenue come in at $331.8 million, which is record, we're now only looking for $295.84
million. CAVA is also undefeated on the revenue, beating revenue eight out of eight times. It only
has reported eight times. The EPS has been a little bit shaky, but it has been pretty good for the most part. And today, again, we're not looking for record
revenue. The bar is still at 295.84 million, which I'm sorry, 285.76 million, excuse me. And again,
I think that's extremely doable for Kava, but we will see. Yeah. Cool, cool. Market did just end up closing.
This is the first time the S&P 500 index closed the day over 6,400.
CoreWeave is the other one that a lot of people are reporting,
watching.
Rigetti, too.
I believe that it, I know that's a name that StockTalk
has at least traded a little bit in the past.
Rigetti, how was the sticker?
I've traded all the quantum names. I've traded all the quantum names.
I've traded all the quantum names.
They're good traders.
I don't know what you're doing.
Don't seem like good plays around earnings.
I don't.
Yeah, I don't hold garbage through earnings.
I mean, like, honestly, a lot of people would look at my portfolio and be like, wow, there's a lot of smid caps.
You probably had a terrible earnings season.
Like all of my core positions were up like 20% on earnings.
Centris Energy, Kratos, except for Genius i guess which hasn't wasn't up much but it's still trended to the upside it's gone from 960 to 1270 i mean even without the
earnings reaction um you know you look at mtrn up 10 on earnings you look at nbis up like 20
percent kratos up 20%, Centris up 20%.
I mean, all my stuff held well through earnings,
even though it's speculative stuff, even though it's up.
Most of those names are up double in the last three months
and people would have looked at them going into earnings like,
oh, that's risky holding Nebbius through earnings
or it's risky holding Centris through earnings
or it's risky holding Kratos through earnings.
It turned out not being risky holding any of them through earnings.
So it isn't always just about looking left and saying,
how much is the stock up going into the report?
Or looking left and saying like,
hey, is this a smid cap stock or a shitty stock?
Not all smid cap stocks have rough earnings seasons
just because they've run a lot.
Sometimes the thematic opportunity is so compelling
that people will float the stocks.
And in the case of the names that I mentioned,
that the core positions of my portfolio,
those names haven't gotten sold.
And I mean, that just corroborates my bias, right?
Because why not sell them?
Why not sell Centris, which isn't growing earnings that much, which is very expensive on a PE basis?
Why not dump that 20% on that report?
Well, you know, you ask yourself that question.
For me, it's because the asset's rare, you know, you ask yourself that question. For me, it's because the asset's rare, you know?
And I think sometimes, you know, I talked, I did a workshop this weekend called Rarity
Premium and Multi-Theme Exposure.
I did a workshop for our members.
And I'm going to do a series of those over the next couple of weeks on my stock picking
process.
But I also put out a tweet last week and I said, look, the chart bros never stay in the right stocks for long enough because they don't understand the story.
And the P.E. bros never get into the right stocks in the first place because they're always too expensive.
Right. And so to me, great stock picking comes from the context in between those two things, the context in between the chart and in between the balance sheet. And that comes from things like rarity premium and
multi-theme exposure. And this idea that like people in the market, essentially the market is
a game of tons of people with different beliefs and different convictions seeking exposure.
That is essentially what they're doing when you're doing, you're buying a stock or an ETF of any kind. And once you find exposures that in the nature of the
opportunity are very limited, those stocks tend to trade at enormous premiums, at high multiples,
and they tend to go higher and higher and higher in spite of that. Why? Because there is no
alternative to those exposures in many cases.
And when you find a smid cap stock that fits that description, know that it is rare. It is rare to
find a smid cap stock that can offer you an exposure that a large cap stock cannot offer you.
In fact, most of the themes we think about, the pure play smid cap stocks that run a lot,
there are larger companies that do what they're doing better but those stocks don't get bid in the same way because
they're not pure plays and the market caps aren't as small you know and there are some very few rare
exceptional cases where a smid cap company does something that no other peer does period and those opportunities tend to get
relentlessly bid to the upside and hold up very well and in the quantum computing
space like your initial question when I started this little tangent the quantum
community space is not yet one of those spaces you know it's a very very young
industry and so I think those stocks are great trading you know who I heard say
quantum he believes in quantum this morning this person said they believe in the quantum industry
and they're doing a quantum bonanza later today you know who it was who it was jim kramer just
so you know really interesting yeah today literally this morning yeah quantum bonanza he's having the
d-wave ceo on his show later today so maybe that's a catalyst i mean jim's an entertainer at the end
of the day, right?
He's trying to talk about things that are interesting to people.
But yeah, look, I think quantum in the future will be a big industry.
I just think it's really hard to pick a winner right now because to me, what the quantum
computing companies that are publicly traded today offer, it pales in comparison to what
like Google.
Forget he did report.
What's the stock doing? CoreWeave 2? in comparison to what Google and IBM.
CoreWeave,
1.1 billion,
estimated 1.08 EPS.
I'm seeing minus 42 cents versus
minus 31 cents expected, but that is...
Stocks down
1% initially.
Yeah, and then
let's see what this Argentina was doing.
It was down about 5 and a half it's uh
four and a half right now before we people care definitely care more about i actually don't even
see anything in this port let's see what some other people are saying playboy might have just
reported earnings too i believe is what that tick was dude yeah boom it's off fast stock market news
tweet all right uh so stock talk how are you keeping this
company alive 28.15 million I heard you spend ten million dollar deal with them
with your stock talk insiders what are you talking about that book company your
your playboy deal with stock talk oh you replace ricks yeah we summed up for
ricks on the advertising the official weekend partner of the group. Yo, um, I started talking,
I wanted to emphasize on one thing you just said, uh, the exact name that you were talking about,
you saw 112% intra quarter move. Um, and now that I think about it, because I posted literally
all 500 names, you know, throughout the earnings reports, just about every single one, you could
pretty much move or get a trade on without going through earnings. You know, you don't really need to hold for earnings for just about anything.
Exactly. Yeah. You don't need to hold earnings for anything. I agree with that completely.
Like, I like on if you if you're a trader, if you're a trader, if you're a trader, that's the big caveat, you know.
But they're like on names that I trade. I make the majority of my core.
We've, by the way, sorry to interrupt. I'm seeing the report now, which is why it's maybe moving higher.
Like revenue backlog, $30.1 billion.
Let's see if there's a forward guidance on here.
I don't quite see forward guidance, so maybe it's worth waiting.
Sorry to interrupt.
But yeah, Corweave now is moving higher.
I'm seeing the report in front of me right now.
$1.2 billion in revenue?
Corweave will provide forward-looking guidance and connection with his Corley
revenue on the earnings call.
So Corweave's move still
is probably in front of it.
Corweave earnings call...
Lost of 60 cents.
Yeah, yeah.
That's way worse than expected.
It was, what, expected 45 cents?
They lost 60?
49 cents.
It's a pretty decent mess, but it's a new company.
Who knows?
Everybody wants to own it.
All right.
Kava should be out in a minute or two as well and then we're past the earnings that
people really care about lumentum ticker light which was a spin-off of what company i don't
know i'd have to go and look beat revenue bdps light all right now now what I do want to touch on what stocks I brought up because I think this is that's important
Thing for for new traders and investors are not even just new traders investors. I think in general for
Some experienced traders and investors too. I've seen managed earning seasons very poorly
Unless you're a very short-term trader you have to get used to holding positions through earning season because
earnings happen four times a year
You can't like if you're a swing trader or an investor. You cannot avoid earnings season
You know what what can you do? Well?
There's a couple things you can do first of all
You can learn to read a chart so that you get a good entry and that you have a cushion going
into earnings. This is a huge problem that people don't think is a problem because people think that
their cost basis doesn't matter if they're holding for 10 years. And that is not true.
You're a human being. If you buy a stock at $70, let's say, on February 10th, and on February 15th, they report earnings, and in between your purchase of the stock and the earnings, it did not move.
Now you're going into earnings with, I don't know, let's say it's a $200,000 position.
You're going into earnings, and the stock goes down 20% on earnings.
20% on earnings. Okay. That's a much different scenario than if you had been somewhat technically
literate, got an ideal entry on that earnings, let's say at 58 near the lows when the stock was
covered down 10. Okay. You go into earning with a cushion on the position. Not only does that
drawdown hurt less, but there are scenarios where, let's say, instead of going down 20%, it goes down 7%, you're actually still green on the
position.
DocTalk, Kava's down 15%.
Oh, I don't know.
I haven't seen the numbers yet, but we're doing...
Bessette should think about a 50 basis point.
Kava expected EPS was 13 cents.
Actual EPS was 16 cents.
Expected revenue was 285.23 million.
Actual revenue was 280.61 million.
Missed by 2% on Rev.
These BESEC comments are kind of interesting on Fox Business right now.
What's he saying?
He said he hopes that Moran will be confirmed by the Senate before the September meeting and that they should cut 50 basis points.
50 basis points in September.
Wide net for next Fed chair.
Trump has open mind is what you just said.
Yeah, Kava beat EPS, missed revenue.
Same store sales was 2.1% versus 6.5%, which was expectations.
That's rough.
Wall Street, they expect same store sales for the fiscal year between 4% to 6%.
Wall Street wanted 8% or 7.5%.
So that is rough.
Yeah, that makes some sense, actually.
Goddamn.
It doesn't mean it's going down forever.
Great food.
I actually really like kava.
But the food,
more than the stock, it's not pretty new.
Kava down
20 now.
Alright, stock talk.
Now we're, now you,
we're starting to go with the rain a little early.
I mean, I don't know.
No, I know, I know.
You've never had the food, right?
No, I've had the food. I mean, I don't think. No, I know. I know. It was, yeah. You've never had the food, right?
No, I've had the food.
I mean, I don't think the food's that great either.
Mids?
Maybe I'm.
Do you like the Mediterranean style of food in general?
Yeah.
Yeah, I like Mediterranean food.
I just don't like kava that much.
I think it's a little overhyped.
But anyway, I don't know much about the business, so I don't want to comment on something I don't know.
Well, they missed on same-store sales growth,
so that's not going to be good for these type of...
Didn't Sweetgreen get killed on their earnings, too?
A couple of these companies,
but a couple of them have been working really well as well.
I think even like McDonald's or Starbucks.
Sweetgreen was 42 at the start of the year,
and it's nine now?
Yeah.
What?
What happened?
No, it's another one that's gotten hammered.
They've missed every earnings they've had.
I don't pay attention to the food companies, but damn, that's wild.
Lululemon has also had itself a wild year.
Yeah, that stock's gotten crushed.
That story I have seen unfold.
But I mean, dude, I think the fact that people thought that they had a moat in yoga pants
was hilarious in the first place.
But that industry has just been invaded by competitors.
There are so many competitors now in the athleisure space.
It's unbelievably different.
I guess Sydney Sweeney 5% of the company.
I mean, that's...
I don't even know.
Is AEO even an athleisure?
I'm sure they have some kind of athleisure sub-brands.
But anyway, what was I talking about earlier?
Oh yeah, holding through earnings.
Yeah.
So holding through earnings becomes way easier when you have a cushion.
And that goes for swing traders and investors.
Just because you're an investor and you have a decade-long timeline,
it doesn't mean you don't want to build a good cost basis.
You do.
You want to buy at the ideal times.
You know, I was talking to like one of our members, and he shares a long-term position with me.
And he was like, oh, I want to add to the position.
Stock pulled back into the 9 EMA.
And I was like, dude, that's not where long-term investors add to their positions.
You don't look for pullbacks on the monthly chart.
If you're planning on holding something for years, you're not looking for pullbacks on
the daily chart.
You're not looking for a 21 EMA pullback.
You say, I'm a buyer right here.
If it's a long-term position, no.
You look for bigger pullbacks when the market gives you broader corrections
because the market will give you broader corrections.
Anyone who's been in the market for more than a couple of years should know that, right?
You will get broader corrections.
You get them all the time.
And in those broader corrections, great stocks get caught up and get sold.
And there are opportunities to buy stocks if babies get thrown out with the bathwater
in those corrections.
And anyone with, like I said, any amount of market experience knows that.
So if you know that, then why be in a rush to add to those positions?
You know, you will get pullbacks on everything, no matter how strong the stock is, no matter
how high flying it is, how parabolic it is.
Everything pulls back significantly eventually.
And those are the opportunities you look for.
But you have to learn to hold through earnings season unless, like I said, you're a very short term trader.
Then you can operate in that intracurricular basis.
But if you plan on owning anything, like compounding any names over a multi-year basis, of course you're going to have to hold through earnings seasons.
And there's going to be some earnings reactions that are great
and some that are not so great.
But, you know, the better your entry is and the smarter your entry is,
that's part of why I like to enter with catalysts
because it gives you that extra juice in the first couple weeks
or couple months of your position where, you know,
you have a big cost-based advantage and you have flexibility from there. Different people have different ways of ensuring that. But that's an important factor
in psychologically managing your trade or your investment or whatever it is. I say trade,
but I don't mean this just for traders. And so, yeah, I think that matters a lot. I think a lot
of people say, oh, I don't want to hold anything through earnings season. That's okay if you're a
very short-term trader. But if you're a like very short-term
trader but if you're not it's really hard you can't adopt that philosophy if you're not if
you're a swing trader or an investor you just can't adopt that philosophy of being scared of earnings
because that usually either means a you don't know the company well enough that you're holding
through earnings in fact that's probably the overwhelming reason for most people is that they just don't understand the company well enough.
They don't know what to expect. They don't know what the downside could be.
And so they feel nervous holding through it or that you're oversized.
I think those are probably two of the most common reasons why people are like scared to hold something through earnings.
And I see investors say that, too, you know, like, oh, my stocks doubled in the last
three months. I don't want to hold their earnings. And it's like, dude, well, what's your time rise
on this position? You're planning on investing the stock for years. Yeah, I had a great couple
of months, but that doesn't mean you just sell it just because, you know, you got to, you got to
sit through the story, you know, if that's your thesis. And again, that's different for traders
versus investors, because traders just want
to get some juice out of it and investors usually have some kind of bigger reason they're buying the
stock so yeah you have to get used to holding through earning season if you your time frame
is more than like a couple of months hamid i wonder if you have any thoughts on uh on this one because obviously you the kind of the
way you trade or invest i don't know if you you call yourself an investor but i don't know if it's
also just a long-term swing trader really um i wonder your take on that but yeah what's your
thoughts on this and kind of approach your approach to earning season?
Yeah, I definitely am a long-term investor.
Are you asking my thoughts on Kava in particular?
No, I mean, if you have any thoughts on Kava, you can give them.
But just kind of, I just got a notification, Ethereum up 9.3% over the last 22 hours.
That one's making a move up to 4,600.
What a move.
No, Stock Talk's been talking here and Sniper was talking about a little bit too
about some of these positions.
You're going to have to hold through earnings
and a lot of people can be afraid of that.
And obviously you're holding your positions
for a couple quarters,
which means you're going into earnings
and you're really understanding the names.
But I'm just curious on these positions,
how you manage them through earnings,
just updating your theses.
How sometimes when a thesis changes off of earnings, how do you maybe get out of it?
If you've had any examples of that, just in general, this expectation.
So the way I like to think about it, there's sort of like the ideal scenarios and then
then just the temptation scenarios, right? Like the ideal scenarios is where you find a company
just the temptation scenarios, right?
that you speculate has a very great future long-term and it's trading at a decent price.
And ideally you discover it relatively early in its life cycle and you get in with the intention
of holding onto it for a decade or longer, right? That's the sort of ideal scenario.
But every now and then the temptations come in quite a bit.
And Kamba was actually one of those temptations for me
where I started hearing a lot of people talking about it on Axe.
I looked at the restaurant.
It just seemed like it's, you know, people love the food.
And that kind of company usually comes on my radar and I get excited about it.
I bought the stock on right before I was supposed to report earnings.
And this was around $100 a share roughly, I want to say six months, maybe eight months, nine months ago.
And I hadn't tested out their food yet.
I hadn't done a lot of due diligence.
I just bought a small amount.
Uh, they reported their earnings.
It went up like 15, 20%.
And then on the Monday I went and tested out their food and, uh, or, or over the weekend,
rather I test out their food and I wasn't that crazy.
I was kind of like a stock talk.
And I was like, wow, Chipotle is way better than Cava. And then I came back
and looked at their numbers. And it was like, on a per store basis, Cava at the time was valued at
something like $40 million per store, which was more than like two or three times as much
as Chipotle at the time. So, you know, and the valuation was basically as if it's already Chipotle, not that
it's going to become like Chipotle success. So the valuation that it was getting seemed too high
to me. I ended up selling, I bought it at a hundred, sold it around 115. I was in and out.
Like, so that was one of those sexy temptations. And I was like, okay, I'm out because I don't see myself staying in this stock long term.
Stock ripped all the way to 170.
And it seemed like it was a huge mistake for a little bit.
But then eventually gravity brought it back down to where today was trading in the 80s before earnings.
before earnings and it might be significantly lower after earnings.
And it might be significantly lower after earnings.
But Kama is one of those stories where it goes to show you that valuations matter even
if a company continues to do well.
Because even if they do well but they don't exceed all expectations, their stock price
could be half what it was just a few months ago.
And you would have no explanation as to why that happened. Well, the explanation is that the stock got ahead of its revenues and growth curve and its current performance. So whenever
that happens, you can have stocks that stagnate for a long time or even go down substantially. So I like to think of myself as a long-term investor, but also where I take into consideration
valuations pretty heavily.
And I think valuations matter big.
Sam, you heard once a little earlier.
You got any thoughts on any of the conversations and the earnings?
Anything you want to add in?
Yeah, I mean, I think StockTalk's going to agree with me.
When it comes to the data center expansion for the smaller player,
especially in GPU and compute,
I'm not talking about the hyperscalers or Oracle, but the small players, I would say Nebius is the better pick.
We've seen it from stock performance,
but in addition to just fundamentals as well, man.
I mean, go ahead.
Why would I rip you for that?
I own Nebius.
No, no, no.
I said you would agree with me.
Oh, I thought you said I was going to rip you for it.
No, dude.
You and I have both been Nebius around the same time.
Yeah, no, I agree.
I love Nebius.
When you think about CoreWeave, they're renting
GPUs and basically selling
compute.
The big thing with CoreWeave is that they've got a large
backlog, opening as a customer,
Microsoft and so on. That's a big thing.
When you think about Nebius,
much smaller player compared to the
hyperscalersers but they own the
entire stack they build the data centers they build the servers they build a software that's
running their cloud engines and everything they're finding their clients and so on and on top of that
and i don't know if this is necessarily a negative because a lot of people think it's a negative
but they basically used to be the google of russia yandex rebranded themselves to be listed on the
nasdaq sold all their Russian assets.
Now they're based in the Netherlands.
And now they're basically part of a data center expansion story.
They originally guided from, I think it was about $500 to $750 million ARR at the beginning of the year or end of last year.
Now they're guided from $1.0 billion to $1.1 billion.
They're growing at an astronomical rate.
On top of that, they're
forecasting adjusted EBITDA positive by next year. I think it's pretty early in the story,
in my opinion. Obviously, Stock Talk says this all the time. When you have a much lower cost
basis, you have that power to just sit through whatever drawdown you're going to experience.
I don't think that things are going to continue going straight up. But if it pulls back to like 40 something bucks, I'm going to add. Meanwhile,
someone who just buys in today with the expectation is going to keep going up. They're probably going
to freak out and sell. This is probably one of those things where I'll look to add to it a
weakness, not necessarily sell it. And that was the all-star earnings that I was looking for this
quarter. And they reported they did great stock reacted positively. I don't know if it's going
to keep going up. We'll see. But when I see CoreWeave, okay, they got a great backlog
and everything, but it's not really the company I want to bet on right now. Plus, a lot of that
has already been priced into the stock since the IPO season. And also, it did IPO this year,
so it already had the momentum from the IPO season. So now, what if IPO season kind of
falls off a cliff for a little bit? I don't know yet, but is CoreWeave going to take part in that?
We'll see also what happens for the guidance next quarter,
but I'm sure the guidance is going to be pretty good
as long as NVIDIA still continues to build GPU chips.
There's going to be a lot of demand for CoreWeave as well to give them out.
But if you guys haven't heard,
Envius is already offering the GP200 compute to its customers.
So really, when you think about it, would you rather just
rent the GPUs for AI workflows, or would you rather own the whole stack? Or would you rather
rent the whole stack and probably get a better deal if you're a smaller company? Of course,
OpenAI and Microsoft are going to continue going to CoreWeb. When you think about Nebius,
they have a large plethora of customers all around the entire world, most of them, of course,
in Silicon Valley, but they're building large data centers in Europe as well, in addition to the larger data
center in Paris. They used to say they're going to have 22,000 black belt chips. Now, they opted
to more than that. And it's going to continue being high in demand. And on top of that, they're
building data centers around the entire world. They're not limited by the amount of GPUs they
can rent from people. They're just going to go ahead and build it, and they have experience experience doing it and this is the reason why i'm long nebius and i'm not long core
weave not to say that stock can't keep going up i mean you know it's also the wall earning season
ipo season and so on i'll probably just keep going up when i think about it from a fundamental
perspective uh definitely nebius is it's early in the game my opinion i think uh i it did beat my
forecast for 2027 which which I thought was around
70 bucks. But that was based on the multiples. And that was based on the metrics I was seeing
at the beginning of the year. Obviously, those have to be revised up along with Wall Street,
getting those price target increases to the $80 range. Wouldn't be surprised seeing it there in
the next couple of weeks, as long as the market stays bullish. But at the same time, not buying
right here, hoping I'm going to make some money on it. I'm buying way down there and adding on pullbacks. So you've got to kind of think of it that way,
especially if you're wanting a longer-term perspective for a trade. I'm not really sure
the options I'd be on this thing is ridiculous even after the earnings. So you might have to
be careful a little bit. One thing I did notice since this morning, where that China stocks are
basically flat this morning. And then out of nowhere, we start getting the news saying that China is basically telling its large manufacturers and
large caps to not buy the NVIDIA chips, which is just ridiculous in my opinion. I mean, why would
you tell your companies not to buy the best company available to them? What are you going to
do? You're going to start buying more China chips when obviously it's high in demand to have their video chips, even though they're the underclocked H20 and MI30
308 chips from AMD, they're still the best chips they can get their hands on. Of course, you're
going to buy those chips, but it also shows that there's a lot of demand and there's a large
speculation. Sorry, not speculation. There's the lower sentiment backdrop on it, making it seem
like they don't want these chips, but it seem like they don't want these chips.
But in actuality, they do want these chips.
They do want to compete with the US model creators.
And it's the only way they can actually compete with it with that kind of compute.
If you think about the amount of money it costs to generate power in China, it is fractions
compared to the US, but they don't have access to compute.
And that's the problem.
So they need this in
order to get ahead in the race. And I think that's the reason why we're starting to see
a rally pickup in China stocks. Not holding it for the long term, but I thought Bobo was very
mispriced. I thought K-Web, which is basically the QQQ of China was mispriced. But definitely
when I'm placing more of a long-term bet, and of course, my faith, that is in the United States
of America, freaking NVIDIA, OpenAI, Microsoft, open ai microsoft meta and someone those are the companies i want to bet on not necessarily china for the long term a lot
of people are going to disagree with me on that one but uh you know i i live and breathe on this
country and i you know we're definitely going to win this race without a doubt i think the other
thing that makes happen go for it i think the other thing that makes Nebius unique is the fact that when you look at a lot of these other, well, Nebius is no longer a Smith cap, but when I bought it, it was, but now it's obviously a large cap. It's like an $18 billion mark cap now.
But we bought it earlier in the year, $23.92. It was a third of the mark cap that it is now. And the thinking back then was the distinction, at least for me.
Ooh, circle public offering.
Financial ticket company Stable Clinton announced the launch of a public offering of 10 million shares,
classic common stock, and the selling stakeholders are offering 8 million.
So this might not be the company itself getting the shares, which tends to be a less thing.
Is the stock moving at all?
Yeah, it's down 6%.
Give that a second.
So a lot of times when it's insider selling
and not necessarily a large shareholder,
it means less.
But Circle is offering 2 million shares.
So there is a little bit.
Yeah, Circle offering down 6.
Interesting. But yeah, the thing that makes nebius uh distinguished from its other sub 20 billion market cap data center peers is that
it's a very capital intensive process to build data centers and a lot of nebius's valuation
comes from their subsidiaries like click house which, which I'm not going to go over data observability again, but I've talked about it on the last four or five spaces if going to become increasingly important as the models become the foundational models become more and more generalist, quote unquote.
Anthropics' most recent rounds, I imagine their next round will be $10 billion plus, at least.
Because their $6 billion round was prior to OpenAI's last two up rounds and Anthropics' last two up rounds.
So ClickHouse is going to be worth more than the next round, unless the market crashes in between now and then, of course.
That's the caveat.
But if the market doesn't crash between now and then, Clickouse will be worth probably 10 billion plus in the next round,
that'd be assumed to 28%. Toloka, their AI data business, which isn't really the same as data
observability because it's an AI data analytics business. So it's a little bit different. I know
people might not get the distinction there, but the distinction there really is like
with data observability, you're looking at petabytes of data and trying to sort the useful data and with taloka their ai
analytics business they're providing specific ai analytics to specific companies so it sounds like
it could be an overlapping business but it's not anyway bezos ventures was in their last round
and that company will probably fetch a three to $4 billion valuation. That subsidiary
will fetch a three to $4 billion valuation in the next round. And so, you know, you look at AV
Ride, they're robotics companies. They're making live food deliveries autonomously in LA, New York,
Dallas, Houston, Austin, where else? Two other cities in Florida. I don't know. I'm off the top
of my dome right now. There's like 12 cities and their bots are driving around. Like I literally, when I go to walk Leo at the
start of these spaces downstairs, there are AV ride robots on the street that's owned by Nebius
too. So that, that to me, or that's why I bought Nebius when I bought it back in May, I bought it
for those reasons because it's not just a data center play. And the data center plays that are just data center plays are going to have to raise a lot of capital to meet the contracts that they're getting from these massive companies.
Because in many cases, these contracts are not, hey, we'll fund you and build it.
It's, hey, we are giving you this massive contract to rent the build out once the build out is complete. And in many cases, these guys need, you know, 500 million plus dollars to fulfill those requirements. So
the smaller companies are going to have to like raise into oblivion and Nebius will have to raise
too. I'm not implying that they won't because again, a lot of their valuation comes from these
stagnant, not stagnant, but comes from these investments that aren't liquid yet, right? Like,
maybe when ClickHouse, if they go public, or if they have like a big round that they'll find some
liquidity, and maybe they'll end up selling some of their stake. I don't know what their plan is
for that. They've talked about it. They said, hey, if there's a liquidity event, maybe, but like,
they're not going to get a liquidity event with Toloka or AV ride anytime soon. And so,
you know, they will have to raise money too. But the
difference between them and others is that you don't have to just depend on the data center
business to say, oh, all the valuation is coming from here, even though the guidance for their
data center business was phenomenal on this last call. That's why the stock went up 20%.
But even though the data center businesses and the guidance is phenomenal, you don't have to rely
on that for the valuation support. You can look to the valuation of their subsidiaries and say, okay, that offers some
level of like floor here for, you know, what Nebius is worth. And I think that makes it more
attractive to me at least. And that's why I still own it. And even though we're up a lot on shares
now, up like 223% on shares now, and we just bought it in May. This isn't a multi-year hold.
I'm planning on making it a multi-year hold, but this wasn't like a position we own going into this year. So I like Nebius a lot. I've done a lot of research
on them this year. I like them a lot. I like Toloka a lot. I think Toloka is just probably
very undervalued. I'm not surprised Bezos Ventures went into it. AV Ride is undervalued.
Clickhouse is not undervalued, but their their next round they will probably be worth twice what they
were worth in the previous round so yeah i don't know i mean the previous round they raised at six
and since then they've inked deals with spacex and open ai and anthropic so what do you think
their next round is going to be at i would imagine higher um but yeah nebius is fantastic it's a
multi-theme ai exposure you get data data center exposure. You get robotics exposure through AVRIDE.
You get data analytics and observability exposure through Teloka and through ClickHouse.
So it's like a real potential powerhouse in the AI space if they continue to execute in the next five years.
So, yeah, I like Nebius.
By the way, Eli Lilly, CEO, came in and bought a million dollars worth of stock.
Stock's up 0.5%.
Seems to be a little theme we got going on.
There was another, ooh, Shift4, Jared Isaacman bought like $16 million worth of stock yesterday.
Yeah, that was crazy.
So it held on to some of the gains.
Actually, no, it didn't.
I gave some of it back, but that was a buy from him yesterday.
We do have Kevin Green up here.
Hey, Kevin.
It's an interesting after-hours of earnings.
A lot of share filings
and I guess share purchases too.
It's 13F season for anyone who doesn't know.
The, what is this?
Whatever.
How are you doing today, Mr. Kevin Green?
Doing pretty good.
Hey, for that circle offering, it's 2 million for class A shares from the company, and then
selling stockholders are offering 8 million shares.
Yeah, so, so yeah, let's see that.
I think everything, I mean, today, I don't even remember.
It's been a minute since I've been on Spaces for a while, and that was on for a little bit yesterday.
But I'm not sure if I talked about the Cleveland Fed and their forecast for inflation.
That was really kind of the setup.
So the Cleveland Fed has been on fire when it comes to their inflation expectations over the last couple of months.
And they actually had their inflation expectations slightly lower than the street's consensus expectations as well. So that was kind of the setup going into today.
You know, volatility did crush. I don't like wallet with a 14 handle. I think it's at a 14
level. For me, in my opinion, days like today, obviously, it's because of a news event. But if
we don't have any news or economic data, you could have very flat days.
And I think that volatility can actually re-rate higher.
So kind of going back, I think a couple of weeks ago, I was on this basis and kind of talking about just how VIX structure is priced in general.
And it's easier to re-rate higher than it is to re-rate lower.
And it's easier to re-rate higher than it is to re-rate lower.
VIX, we were in the 14s.
VIX, we were in the 14s.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And then just kind of note this too.
The VIX moving state from 14 to 16 doesn't mean the market has to sell off, right?
It just means that there's buyers, active buyers or activity, if you will.
It could be sellers of premium as well on the wings of the SPX option.
So VIX is actually fairly low and disconnected from the seasonal trends that
we usually see if you go back last 10 years, 15 years or so.
Volatility actually re-rates higher right now in preparation for September, which is
usually a pretty volatile month.
And we're kind of diverging from that trend.
So, you know, not a recommendation, but there could be opportunities for re-rating higher
for volatility while you still could have gains in the S&P 500.
If you're looking at the E-mini S&P 500, this is wedge pattern that has formed.
We're pretty much trading at the upper end of that resistance level.
You'd like to see a follow-through day tomorrow and the next day to break out of that range to kind of get us to this next cycle leading us a little bit higher.
There's still a bearish divergence on RSI right now, but price is king.
Volume somewhat mixed.
If you're looking at the options volume SPX, I mean,
it's just like astronomical what you're seeing on zero DTE options right now.
So a lot of activity, but if you kind of look farther out,
outside of the zero DTE expirations, volume is relatively light.
So yeah, today, phenomenal day. A couple of areas that I've
really been, you know, kind of like highlighting and just focusing on over the last couple
of days here is ADM, which is not AMBA, it's ADM, or should Daniel Midland. They're basically
the biggest, let's say, protein provider in the United States or processor, as well as
moving logistics from grain,
corn, soybeans, things of that nature. If you look at that stock, it was kind of like left for dead.
It was actually trading. It was actually paying like a seven and a half or 8% dividend yield at
the lowest. But that's been catching a decent little bit. Saw a little bit of a fade towards
the end of the day. That's because of the WASDE report, the agricultural report that came out.
But I've been keeping my eye out on that and then i briefly mentioned this yesterday with stock talk towards
the end of our conversation around the whole soybean market no one cares about it except for
like maybe two people in this space but that's one to also kind of be mindful of as you start
of us you start hearing some of that rhetoric coming out from the white house the wasd report
hearing some of that rhetoric coming out from the white house the WASDE report also re-rated
also re-rated their expectations lower when it comes to full-on production and ending
inventories for the year and if you look at soybeans completely ripped and if you look at
that chart uh you know a nice little bullish candle right now weekly candle right now sitting
at uh in a bullish formation if you're an ag trader you know you gotta keep that one on the
radar because a lot of the grains have just been fading to the downside.
So a significant amount of short sellers in the grain markets just in general.
And it looks like we're seeing the beginning of a short squeeze in that in that area.
ADM, once again, could be a beneficiary if we do see any type of formal trade deal.
This happened in the first Trump administration as well.
Industrials still doing pretty decent here,
but the locomotives are a little bit lackluster. Right now, if you look at Union Pacific,
look at that trading patterns, trading at around 218 or so, it's kind of a make or break level
for Union Pacific. So I have that one kind of on the radar that I've been actually looking at here.
Tech looks good. Communication services look good. And financials, you know, Burt B, you know, everybody's kind of been focusing
on Burt B because of Warren Buffett leaving. But if you actually look at the technical setup on
the weekly chart on Burt B right now, and its ability to carry the weight for financials,
that also looks like an interesting technical setup, if you will. So that's kind of
where I'm at. Overall, the inflation picture, if you're looking at year over year, yeah,
kind of it's a little bit higher on core, but disregard year over year. Look at month over
month. That's really what matters right now. Month over month, still a little bit hot on core,
but not excessively hot. I don't think it gives the Fed enough of a reason not to
do 25 basis points in September. Maybe if you're looking at further cuts remainder of this year,
you can make that case, but I don't think it's going to change the direction.
And yields kind of look like they want to inch a little bit higher on a technical basis here.
But today, what we saw is kind of early cycle behavior, in my opinion, where you see a sell-off in treasuries, which means you'll go higher and then deployment of that capital in the equity markets. You want to see that trend continue over the next couple of weeks. That's really bullish. And that's kind of what I got for the market. So the earnings front, core weave will wait for the earnings, the guidance moving
forward. I think that's actually like the most important thing when it comes to these numbers.
And yeah, that's what I got. So I'll kick it back over to you guys,
unless you guys have any other questions.
Devin, what do you think about CPI?
Yeah, I mean, there was a lot there.
I mean, if you kind of look at the internals, there's a lot that can be explained away and
certain things that I'm not too, too concerned about right now.
I believe that inflation will kind of stay sticky and actually will be elevated once
we actually get these full tariffs actually implemented
because we continue to delay them and i find it very funny we continue to delay the tariffs and
then everybody's like look there's no way there's no tariff impact on the inflation it's like yeah
because only like 30 of the actual tariffs that were initially announced are actually enacted so
i'm kind of waiting to see what the residual effect is for some of these tariffs actually going to affect and how it's going to impact CPI.
If you look at food prices, I think they're a flat month over month.
I'm going off of memory.
Food away from home, a little bit concerning.
I think that was an increase to 0.3% month over month.
Food away from home is the services that you receive as you are at the restaurant.
Okay. And it's not the actual food itself.
I think people kind of look at food away from home and they say, oh, okay, it's just another food category. It's not. It's the services that you provide. So is that a services inflation
pickup in a sense? It is. Once again, not too, too concerned about that. Everybody was also
talking about autos and used car prices.
Yes, it was a significant re-rating to the upside.
If you look at the previous two months, it was a pretty decent deflator as well.
So I think there's just more of a normalization there.
And then energy prices were a deflator, and that is really the result of heavy seasonality adjustments for the number itself.
So that was also something that was fairly helpful.
And then shelter, we were at 0.2%.
I mean, if we get another month at 0.2% for shelter,
I think that once again gives another reason for the Fed
to at least try to cut rates in September.
So if you kind of look at the, I mean, there were some
pockets of heat, if you will, when it comes to this number, but not enough for me to say that
the Fed's going to readjust. Transportation services, so airline prices as well, so a massive
re-rating. I think there's like, and maybe we'll see this in the numbers that come out from a lot
of these airline companies, but TSA data is not really confirming this, that there's this massive uptick in
people that are traveling.
It's just not within the data right now.
What is happening from a lot of these airline companies is they are actually pulling capacity
down, right?
So the amount of seats available are going lower.
And in order to do that, they can also kind of raise up prices.
So I think that's more reflecting
the capacity side of the equation in airlines
rather than true demand spiking higher.
We're just not, I'm just not seeing that.
You did see the airline companies up like 8% today.
That's not on the back of inflation.
It's on the back of the fact that Spirit Airlines
probably sounds like,
I don't want to choose my words wisely, it sounds like they're very cash strapped, which we already
knew that from the jump, but they may not have enough liquidity to even continue. So if they
actually do go bankrupt and they're not able to complete or continue their operations, then the
thought process is that those customers are obviously gonna go to these other airline companies.
That's really the big push for airlines today,
not CPI and the fact that prices went higher,
which is something that I've heard pretty much all day.
So overall, I think it was an okay print
and met the streets expectations
in some way of shape or form.
I think the Cleveland Fed's still on it right now.
I think that they're still the boogeyman down the road.
But the way that we have this whole thing set up right now from a political angle, as well as these delays for these certain tariffs kind of going in and some of these exemptions, I think that there's still some opportunity for potential stickiness of inflation or even rising inflation as well.
Last thing I'll say on this. We had a couple of Fed presidents come out today.
Fed Schmid came out, or this might be, we haven't had too many come out and say,
hey, I support us to hold right here.
And he was one of them saying, when he was saying like,
hey, us not seeing an impact inflation yet shouldn't be a signal to cut rates. It should
be a signal that, you know, it just hasn't come in yet. I agree with him. I don't know
that well, but.
I completely, yeah, no, I completely, I agree with him on principle. The other side of that
is a maintenance. If you came out and said, Hey, a maintenance cut of 25 basis points,
just to kind of one, give signal to the market to probably freeze up a little bit of liquidity
on the lending side. And three kind of could act like a little bit
of a backstop as far as the sentiment for corporations when it comes to the labor market.
I think that's fitting, right?
I understand him on principle.
I mean, him and I, like, we're on the same page.
I've been talking about that all year.
But on the other side of that, I think you still have to maybe react a small bit to the fact that maybe labor is breaking.
And unfortunately, the seasonal impacts that we have in the seasonal nature of the BLS data makes it very, very difficult for this, which is exactly what happened this time last year.
And everybody's like, completely forgets why the Fed cut 50 basis points. It's because they saw
120,000 jobs, I won't say lost, but a reduction in jobs added around 120,000 between the June
print, July, and the August print. The July, August is usually the report months are usually weak.
You report the following month, right?
And then the September month, which will be reported in October, is usually fairly strong, a really strong print.
This is exactly what happened this time last year.
So I get his thought of, hey, like we might we're not at our target yet when it comes to inflation.
Waiver market is this experience some cracking?
That might be the case, but we really just don't know because it's just usually weak at this point.
But if you give 25 basis points to say as a backstop, okay, just in case we can kind of start this process, I don't think that there's a problem with that.
And I think that's what the market's really pricing in.
The market is not pricing in 100 basis points worth of cuts by the end of this year,
right? We are looking at 50 basis points. You might get 75. And if we get 75 basis points,
honestly, I think that that would be negative for equities. And especially if you start off with
50 basis point rate cut, I still think that would kind of be negative for equities,
at least in the near term or long term. Equities will still thrive. They'll readjust
and readapt, but I get
where he's coming from.
But, I mean, you don't have... It sounds like they
don't have enough Fed members right now to really block
a rate cut.
In my opinion.
Sorry for that noise, by the way.
It's practically we're getting a
rate cut, and now they're trying to angle in for the
50-paces point cut one.
We'll see.
I imagine that might be where this language starts to shift a little bit more.
If they're going to do that, they've got to signal it.
No, they've got to signal it. At least by Jackson Hole.
They have to.
Because if the market's pricing in what it's pricing in right now,
and they don't abide by that,
I mean, there's only been a couple of times in history since we've been tracking these probabilities
where a disconnect like that has actually occurred and has created, one, an issue when it comes to
the plumbing of treasuries and fixed income markets, as well as a drawdown in equities.
So they got to signal it and they got to signal it now because the market's really built on this whole cut in September thing. And I don't think that you're going to get a
negative surprise in Jackson Hole. I find that very unlikely. If you're not going to get,
if you know that you're going to have at least two to three descents, you don't go in Jackson
Hole being very hawkish because then that that looks like a leadership issue right we're
not like the bank of england where we just have split votes all the time uh we had one dissent
now you got to get everybody out you know on board one way or another i would be very shocked if
jackson hall they came out with a very hawkish tone and re-rates the market so close to the Fed meeting in September.
Stock talk.
I know generally where this question will be going, this answer will be going.
You got any thoughts on this kind of rate cut theme?
It seems like we're here.
It seems like the market is starting to wrap itself around it. Whatever metric you want to look at,
whether it's these betting markets,
poly market,
if you want to look at,
if you want to look at the CME FedWatch tool or whatever,
but the more,
or even just sentiment,
whatever your gauges market is starting to wrap itself around.
Wow.
CME FedWatch tool says 94.4% chance of a cut at this next meeting.
Are you taking any trades off of this are we
taking anything i again i whatever but um like off the rate cut narrative yeah the answer is no
as i've kind of tried to poke a little bit join me in rkt or sofa if you want to join in a couple
uh i don't feel the need like whatever like okay i guess this depends on the style of trader you
are but or
investor you are or i hate when i make these classifications because like i don't really
think of myself as either there's stocks that i invest in and there's stocks that i trade that's
how i think of it so um anyway when you put like on the lens of that and you think about like the
rate cut trade like i don't feel the need to dramatically reposition i mean i'm a young
young guy i tend to trade higher beta stocks that move a lot i tend to trade some mid caps
i mean i own some mega caps and some large caps but most of my portfolio in terms of the number
of the position is mid caps so like you know i am very intentional about my stock picking like i do a lot of research
into the names that i do decide to own for months or years and so i'm generally like have very high
conviction in the story in a vacuum right like in the story of that stock which is partially why
like i don't ever really make trades off the macro at all like
not that i don't think it's important i i for my personal portfolio like people are different some
people have exposure to like indexes some people trade and invest in commodities some people have
exposure to like all i have just single stock exposure over a basket of stocks and different
industries and different thematics that's like like what my exposure to the market is.
So for me, it makes more sense to think in the micro than in the macro.
And so when like the rate cut narrative comes up,
it's probably good for the companies I own
because I own a lot of mid-cap companies
and mid-cap companies tend to be more rate sensitive, tend to be, not always.
And so, yeah, it's probably a good thing for most of the stocks i own
but do i like reposition aggressively around it no not really um
yeah no not really is the short answer i don't know if i'm saying reposition aggressively but
you know when like are there stocks i'm buying just because rates are coming i don't know if
it's just because of it but but kind of sparking it.
You know, listen, when we're talking about these rallies and you want to wait for the confirmation, maybe it is Jackson Hole.
But this does seem to be the start of a shift that who knows if it will actually be.
It feels like it actually is the start of the rate cutting cycle.
Because when you look at Powell's replacement, maybe it's, I don't know.
Feels like we're getting to the start of a trade here.
Yeah, it feels a little banana republic-y.
Yeah, it feels a little banana republic-y. It does.
And I don't know if that ends well or if that leads to four years of throw a dart at the wall.
I don't know if I'm saying it's banana republic-y,
but what I'm saying is I feel like we're at the like rates are going to be a decent bit lower at this time next year.
I feel like the market is starting to get that as whatever level of certainty, and it's starting now, or at least at the next meeting, Kevin.
It feels like the market can start to speculate on some of these trades at that point.
Yeah, well, look, markets markets are front-running mechanism so i mean a lot of these trades are probably already pricing it in um i think one of the things in in stock talk i
don't want to put words in your mouth right but the sectors that probably will be impacted are
probably not the ones that you're putting a significant amount of dollars in right like
you would care about rate cuts if you're looking at utilities. Utilities can go
down and their comparable yield on a dividend standpoint is better, you know, post-tax
adjustments and things of that nature than treasuries, then that's where they see positive
inflows, right? We know that from history. If you're looking at financials, financials are
another one. Rate cuts can be beneficial, can be, but it usually is actually a hiccup for financial companies for like the first quarter or two as they readjust their portfolio because they can't just completely readjust as of right now in anticipation.
but generally lower rates sparks low demand right that increase in demand especially if you have a
widening out spread um looking at 710s those spreads start to widen out they lend uh they
basically you know land on the long and they borrow on the short uh so like that that's another
industry that would benefit financials have done a phenomenal job right now and i'm i'm confident
that they probably have priced in a lot of this right now within their evaluation.
Some of these financial companies are trading at very steep valuations.
You're looking at a four multiple or even price to book ratio.
But if you're looking at like tech mega cap tech, do they care about interest rate cuts?
No. If you're looking at small caps, do they care about interest rate cuts?
Some. yes.
That could be a tailwind for them, right?
Cheaper cost of capital, easier to be able to finance.
Once again, right?
So there's certain just areas of the market that's going to be beneficial.
The problem that we have, I don't want to say the problem.
I'm going to be very upbeat today.
I got knocked down yesterday because I was being too pessimistic.
But the issue that we may have is if the yields on the long end don't actually come down and they stay where they are or they actually go higher post rate cuts.
That's exactly what happened last year. administration, Republican, Democrat, who cares? They want to be able to lend on, they want to be able to issue debt on the longer end at low rates because it locks it in. You don't have to really worry about refinancing that debt. Right now they're front loading on the short end,
basically in T-bills and they're flooding the T-bill market right now. T-bill auctions have
looked god awful over the last couple of weeks. No one has talked about that because they're T-bills,
but they haven't been that great.
10-year auction wasn't that great.
30-year wasn't that great.
But the problem that it has,
if the yield doesn't actually come down
on the longer end of the curve,
where do they start issuing?
Because that can only last for so long,
especially if the demand on the T-bills start to dry up
and they deserve higher price.
So that's kind of the interesting component
of the overall rate cut scenario.
But I think right now, the market definitely has that priced in for the most part. And if you're
investing in a company because you're waiting on a rate cut, it's probably not the best company,
right? It's probably not the best company because we've been talking about rate cuts for the last
two years or so. I think that's going to be the interesting, eating my popcorn and watching how the treasury
markets actually react to everything once we get three or four of these in the bag because
next year we're probably going to get maybe, but we're going to at least get four that's
being priced in, but probably up to six.
So once you actually have that dynamic, does the longer end of the curve actually come
down or not?
And just because the Fed cuts, it doesn't automatically mean lending rates, say for buying a home, automatically go down as well, right?
Home mortgage rates are usually priced on seven-year or 10-year maturities.
of maturities. So that's kind of the issue that I'm going to be looking at is if we don't have
that re-rating, the housing market probably still will be in this kind of weird dynamic where
interest rates are still relatively elevated with prices still fairly high. So it's interesting,
but there's a lot more, I don't know, there's a lot more opportunity in this market than kind
of focusing on the rate cut saga at this point. I think it's kind of, it's been priced in.
Unless we see an about face,
you see inflation cracking, let's say 4%
on headline inflation for CPI.
Then I think that's probably where that discussion
probably comes back into the picture here
and it becomes more of a retreat from the current policy.
Retreat from the current policy.
It's being priced in, so I'll take it.
I appreciate you, Kevin.
It's like Kevin mentioned. It's those
specific industries, and it's also the
shitty companies that have a lot of debt.
He's right. I tend
to not operate in either of those.
I'm not a big financials guy. I'm not a big utilities guy.
I definitely don't like owning companies with a lot of debt either.
So, yeah, it's just not really a consideration for my portfolio.
I mean, do I think it will help accelerate some of the names I own?
Sure, but yeah, I'm not buying something because I think it's going to happen
if that's the bottom question.
Those are some fair thoughts there.
I'm holding NVIDIA 220 calls.
January 16th strike. Do you think I get them in the money?
Yes.
I didn't think when I bought them
I would, but it's looking
close like they might actually get there I have four options open right now I
have Intel I had the 20 so if you guys saw the tweet where I put out right
before the yesterday's clothes I bought some Intel calls about five Intel calls
$21 strike for this week.
Those were up a little bit. So I rolled those into the $22 calls for next week and took in,
I don't know. I could go in and double check there. So I'm sitting in the 22 Intel calls
for next week. He said we're getting some stuff, the bend the knee trade. I'll make some money off of it. I'm in the Lyft $15 calls for 822.
That has not worked.
So we're still in there.
And yeah, I'm not a trader.
I am holding Apple 230 calls, 919.
Bought live on these spaces that day.
Back in the day, my average cost was $2 on that one.
So we're sitting up nice there. And I have I bought in video leaps and then I bought these January of
this year I bought Nvidia to 20s or which expired January 2026 and yeah those
four you bought those you bought those at the start of this year I bought those
at the start of this year and how did you add to it oh yeah I did not add to it but I did I did hold
it it's up listen this is where a better person would have trained better I'm up
50% where it's this if someone where and I held this I promise you guys I was
down in the dumps at one or two points on this position and I just I guess I
didn't have the balls to add to it. But it's sitting fine.
The Apple ones are decent.
Those are the four call options I am holding right now.
Did you say you're opening a good Discord service or something?
Life's too short to take the under.
Well, did I tell you guys about the one share of the Sigma IPO I got in?
Up 2x.
I'm trying to get filled into this bullish IPO.
I think I'll know in After Hours today if I get a fill maybe it was tomorrow morning I don't know silly season maybe it's over when I get in but
yeah that's exactly okay so just real quick I'll talk about my trades but this
is actually a very funny one so I've been seeing these IPOs like pop right so
I'm like all right was it fly whatever that one was from last week so yeah like all right you know I didn't get into fly
because they didn't give it a Robin Hood any any exposure and I try to reach out
to their people I know their head of PR got full radio silence to me it's like
all right you guys don't want to don't want to bring retail into your stuff I
let it go yeah I was like all right let me put some dollars in this
one right it's just chump change and of course like now the ipo like fevered like broke the data
like all the other ones figma and all this other stuff is like ripping and i'm like all right let
me just throw it into this this one and you know sometimes it just doesn't work so far or something
no dude i've worked oh wait that was actually a really
as i'm saying it yeah i i put that was a dumb question i put in a request to uh to get a couple
of these bullish shares in the ipo uh i don't know the sauce here is in this ipo price this first pop
i don't know if it's after the first trade i don't like buying ipos because I like to wait for great companies, wait till they're down 35 to 50% from the IPO.
And that seems to be a rule that's,
you look at kind of names and meta,
there's been a couple other times if you starting to do that has worked well
for me in IPOs,
but this first day pop is crazy.
That was a dumb question for me.
Actually there's,
there's a couple of space.
Can I buy,
can like you get like the, into the IPOs on Schwab? Yeah, there's a couple of space. Can I buy? Can you get into the IPOs on Schwab?
Yeah, there's ways to do it.
Check it out.
There's BLSH1.
They raised up the price they were going to go between.
Their indicator range.
They also allegedly increased the amount of shares
that they're going to be getting in.
And then also, I saw a headline today. I don't know at what point in this process it was, but they were saying there were 20x
oversubscribed, which means I'm going to probably just get one share again. But this IPO is probably
going to fit. And there's been so many more IPO stories today. I think I had one this morning.
Yesterday, Bain Capital is considering taking Bob's discount furniture public.
StubHub said yesterday they're considering going public again.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac going public again.
The IPO window is open.
They love these IPOs.
Let's hope I get filled on the bullish.
I believe it starts trading tomorrow, if I'm not wrong.
I'll keep them the bullish. I believe it starts trading tomorrow if I'm not wrong. I'll keep you updated.
I know everyone is super concerned.
It's expected to begin trading tomorrow.
All right.
Anyone else have anything that they're excited about?
We don't have really too much on the macro front tomorrow.
Not too many earnings.
PPI is coming up on Thursday retail sales Friday morning looking for
those Cisco earnings after the close tomorrow that's one but they don't think
there's a Friday is kind of where the events end up coming up I don't know if
we have too much going into tomorrow I think Cisco is a pretty big one what if
they make a no it's a bigger one it's What if they make a new off-site? Cisco is a bigger one.
It's been running.
Yeah, it's interesting how much higher the price.
If you look at the stock price and the market cap since the past, the 2000.com bubble,
the market cap still isn't quite over.
But the stock price is pretty much getting there.
Stock talk, this TMC, the metals company, is that one you've ever
looked into before?
Yeah, I know
about that company.
Is it a rarity premium
or is it a shitco?
No, it's not.
I mean, look, the stock's done well because it's
like
a shitco name that you can use to play
this whole deep sea metals mining thing.
But, I mean, I don't know.
Maybe they capture some of that because the Trump administration has been pushing for it.
But no, I don't think it's a serious company.
It's been a good trader, though.
I mean, if you've traded it, it's gone from like $160 to fucking $8.
So, yeah. I i mean if you've
traded it this year you've done fantastic but not all things that go up are quality and not all
things that go down are that's just the truth about the market and your ability to distinguish
the justifications is what makes you a good stock picker that's like the whole game it's like can
you look at a company that's going up and say man there's better buys and can you look at a company
that's going down and say oh that shouldn't be going down and making those distinctions that
context is what makes good stock pickers that's how you consistently pick the best stocks like i don't ever let like one thing
push me in either direction like one factor like you know there's a lot of noise on every name
there's always going to be somebody that can tell you a bad story about a stock you own
or like a reason to sell it so you get caught up in all that just it's really hard to
stick to your guns it's part of the
reason why a lot of my friends were like oh dude you never comment on my tweets
or like other people are like oh you know I never see you like my tweets the
truth is because like during the day outside of me seems a big piece of news
that I need a tweet about during the day I'm like not really on Twitter yeah
because I don't like noise like when when I'm... You excited for these LinkedIn games?
Huh?
You excited for the LinkedIn games?
You did like that post this morning.
You made a funny comment.
Oh, yeah.
I was just trolling you about Apple.
I have no clue what the hell the LinkedIn games are.
But, yeah.
I was just trolling you about Apple because I saw they were adding Sudoku
and I thought that was innovative.
But, yeah. Yeah. I don't even know whatoku and I thought that was innovative. But yeah.
Yeah. I don't even know what I'm talking about at this point.
It's been a great
earnings season though. I honestly thought I was
going to get smacked harder than I did
this earnings season.
What a day today was though.
I know you weren't
going to say it. We're towards the end of the spaces.
If you want to tell us what you're carb loading before you go to the
gym with and then you didn't want to
talk about a couple of these names rest oh okay well I saw Kratos was up a bunch
what are their names of yours were running you want to give me the the one
or two seconds on it everything I was not even up one two percent yeah we had
out of my 16 positions 15 we were green today. What was the red one?
Let me go see.
Hold on.
I pulled it up on my computer already.
Oh, well, two, technically.
LEU.
LEU did an offering after hours, by the way.
It's down like 7%. But LEU and UUU were both red into the close.
But outside of that, everything else is green.
On the trading spaces, that is actually called the Soldier Boy.
You!
That gets thrown out of there.
It's not me. That wasn't me.
That was other boomers. Actually,
Emp loves that. Emp really does love that one.
Materion
jumped over
110, though, today. That was really nice.
Materion had a really clean pullback yesterday
into the nine ema nice little low volume sell and caught the 90 ma and the materion jumped
back today to back above 110 that was really nice it's up like four percent today nebius
was up another seven percent today uh asts was up a lot more in the morning but ended up
up about eight percent kratos was up another six percent lift was up three percent parsons which is my newest position from last week that was up
two percent genius was up another 1.7 genius almost 13 bucks now would you look at that you
know i was pounding the table over here to you guys when it was 960, and people were like, oh, it's so choppy.
It goes 1050 and comes back down to 1030.
A lot of people got scared in that pullback.
Yeah, people get shaken out.
Why do people get shaken out?
Because they don't know the story.
That's why they get shaken out.
They don't know the story.
I know great chart setup traders out there,
the best technical analysts
you'll ever meet they never hold the winning stocks for long enough never you know they make
great trades on them but they never hold them for long enough because they don't know the story
right and that's the thing is like people just don't understand why stocks go up. Even people who know how to read price action well,
they think, oh, well, all of the story
is in the volume and the price action.
That's not true.
That's not true.
The volume and the price action tells you
where the money is flowing
and tells you what the prices want to do,
but it doesn't tell you why all of that is happening.
And that context matters
if you're going to develop conviction
and hold anything for any meaningful amount of time.
If you want to see a stock compound in front of you and double and triple and quadruple and 5X,
if you want those kind of gains, you have to have conviction because you have to hold through massive pullbacks and sit through it.
So, yeah, I mean, Genius is an example of that.
Centris is an example of that.
There's Centris doing an offering right now.
There'll be people that say, oh, you know, the daily chart's breaking down.
I'm going to get out of it now.
And it's the same thing.
People get shaken out easily.
People have weak stomachs, you know.
And I think it's a Peter Lynch quote.
I don't know whose quote it is, but I say this quote all the time.
But it's like the market is more about your stomach than your brain.
That is 150,000 million percent true.
Everyone thinks they need to be a genius to do well in the markets.
You don't need to really need to be that smart.
You don't even really need to be that knowledgeable.
You need to know the things you own well, and you need to have a stomach.
If you do, you'll probably do well.
Because markets go up, as we've seen for the last five years plus.
By the way, speaking of going up,
a lot of people have been posting fake news on this,
but the U.S. national debt just actually crossed over $37 trillion for the first time.
So if anyone was posting it before this, that actually was not true.
But today was the...
Well, actually...
It doesn't matter until it matters.
Yeah, well, actually, today was the day of the 37T, and it's going up. It does not matter until it matters. Yeah, well, actually, today was the day of 37T, and it's going up.
It does not matter until it matters.
The thing with global debt is it's all going.
There's some funny memes I've seen.
Yeah, like who do we owe it to?
Yeah, that's a funny meme.
And then we know what the next answer is.
There's been one that maybe just pops up in my eye ago.
It will all come crashing down
spectacularly one day all the leverage and the debt and the all of that will come collapsing
down one day and it'll be brutal and it'll be like the financial crisis was maybe worse but
no one knows when that's going to happen you know i think i said this two spaces ago but i was taught
by people much smarter than me who have been in the markets much longer than me that you just stay long and cross those bridges when you come to them.
Because sitting around waiting for those things to happen means you will perpetually be stuck on the sidelines.
Like in my view, and this is my opinion, this isn't fact, but based on things I've been talking, based on things I've seen in my own experience in the markets, the best strategy is to just stay long.
And when the bad things happen, and they will happen, you cross that bridge when you come to it.
Are you going to top tick your performance operating this way?
You will not top tick performance operating this way because you're not going to
nail the top if you operate this way. You're going to get caught in that initial leg of the cell.
But to me, it's better to get caught in the initial leg of the cell and give back some of
your performance from the top than it is to be stuck on the sidelines and miss the bull markets
in the first place. Think about how many people on Twitter alone, how many of these perpetual
doomsters on Twitter you've seen, how many of them do you think have been underweight the market long for the last five years?
Probably a lot of them.
And the money that they've left on the table is far more money than they would have lost if they did go long and the correction ended up happening.
Like, that correction that happened earlier this year was a pretty brutal correction for individual stocks. I gave back some performance.
But six months later, my portfolio is back at significant, not at highs for the year, but back up 130% on the year.
So it's like if you know how to weather the correction, if you know how to manage your exposure when it happens,
and you do so in a disciplined and urgent way,
you can survive correction in the market, even while being net long. They're not going to be fun.
It's not going to be fun watching money disappear. But if you want to be long in the market for
decades of your life, if you're in your 20s or 30s or 40s or even your 50s, you want to be long
in the market for decades, you have to live with that. That's the cost of doing life. If you're in your 20s or 30s or 40s or even your 50s, you're going to be long on the market for decades.
You have to live with that. That's the cost of doing
business. Markets are volatile.
They go up, they go down, they crash, they recover.
It's just part of the game. You cannot
escape that. If your goal is to be like,
I want to avoid that, just get out of the markets
altogether. Buy the S&P 500 and don't
listen to anybody tell you about
anything. Just buy the S&P 500 and go away
if you're really that worried. if you're not and you want to and you're willing to take on that risk then yeah
you can stock pick and you have to stock pick with the understanding that those moments are
going to come and when those moments come that's when your conviction is tested the stuff that
you're not willing to sell when those moments come is the stuff you really believe in and the stuff you know well. Like there's a lot of stuff I sold earlier this year in February,
a lot of stuff, like eight or nine positions. I don't remember what they all were back then.
I'd have to go back and look at my journal notes, but I sold like eight or nine positions on that
DeepSeek sell-off, right? Many of them are higher today, six months later than when I sold
them. Was it the wrong decision? No, because had I not sold them in February, in April, my portfolio
correction would have been astronomical. I would have been down 20 or 30%. Instead, I was down like
9.8% at the lows. I was down less than double digits at the lows of the April correction.
Because what? Because I managed exposure.
I cut nine positions.
I added SPY hedges that were like 5% out of the money at that time.
They ended up going 15% in the money.
They paid huge.
They paid like 800%. Those hedges combined with the cutting of short-term exposure let my portfolio not collapse during that correction.
And if you go look at my performance chart, which I post regularly, I post it again today
because the earnings season is over now.
You can see that drop in February and you can see how my portfolio plateaued at the
bottom and held ground because of those decisions.
So if you're smart and proactive, you can cross the bridge of corrections when they
come.
But the alternative to doing that
is to sit around and anticipate them in perpetuity and you'll give back way more money doing that
than you will doing it my way and that's just the truth it's not my way but it's peter lynch's way
and it's stanley drucken miller's way and all these guys. Doc Talk's way, Peter Lynch's way.
I mean, Peter Lynch is my goat.
So, like, I model a lot of what I try to do in investing principle after Peter Lynch.
I think Peter Lynch is hands down the greatest, like, I guess you'd call him a swing trader, if you want, of all time.
Like, hands down, in my opinion.
So, yeah, I like to reiterate the things that Peter Lynch says. I hope no one's pretending that I'm saying I'm inventing these things.
I'm not.
Great investors that have come way before me have taught me these things and should teach you these things, too.
Like, you know, Druckenmiller always said, like, I mean, sorry, Lynch always said that the biggest sin a market participant can make is to sell their favorite stock.
He said that's the single biggest sin a market participant can make.
And it's the truth.
Can I ask you something?
Yeah.
You're a palantir bull.
You've been holding it since like 40.
since like 40.
Are you telling yourself that same thing there?
Are you telling yourself
that same thing there?
See, but these sort of
investing cliches
are not to be taken
without nuance, of course, right?
Like, yeah, it does matter
what the valuation is.
Am I telling Pallengeables
they should be selling their stock?
I don't know.
I mean, would I buy it here?
That'd be really hard
for me to stomach.
But could the stock go higher?
I don't know.
They're positioning themselves to take the whole government software pie.
And if they take that, then they're probably worth more than what they are today.
So, yeah, I think it does probably apply to Palantir.
You know, I'm like I have a this guy.
He is actually on Twitter at FOMO stocks.
He's a Palantir millionaire.
And I've taught him a lot about stocks over the years.
And he's been in our community for a long time.
And I never owned Palantir.
But, you know, he held it through.
He always talks to me about this and tags me.
He always says, thanks, StockDoc.
And I always ask him, like, why are you thanking me?
I never owned Palantir.
And he's like, oh, because you're always ranting to me about high conviction plays.
And I held it.
And he held it for the last five years.
And he started buying it at $10.
And he put $110K in it.
And he has like $1.4 million now from that one stock.
He just never sold it.
He never sold one share.
Right?
Like, that's conviction.
And in three and a half years, he made over a million dollars on one
stock and it's not his it's not his only stock in his portfolio he made over a million dollars on
one stock you know with 100k investment in three and a half years because he was convicted because
he did not want to sell it and palantir did a lot in between now and then right yeah it it went up
to 17 down to nine down i don't even know what the
lows were but you know and he sat there through all of that and he actually bought more when it
went up to 17 and you know i think his cost base is something like 13 bucks or something but whatever
like and he posted a screenshot you can go to his page at fomo stocks um but he started his own
little page for it and he was like talking
to me about it and he's like, yeah, I killed it.
You know what one of my problems is
though? It's definitely not, I don't know if this is
for everyone else, it's not the buying and holding
part. It's the selling
part. I feel like I hold them too long.
We'll see.
What do you feel like you've held?
I don't know if I've held it for too long, but
we're talking here. I've held this NVIDIA.
I still have not taken one profit on NVIDIA.
But you haven't been punished for that, right?
No, I know.
And is that always a good thing?
So give me an example.
I'm not doing this facetiously.
I mean this like productively.
Give me an example of a stock that you had a lot of conviction in that you held too long.
I'm not necessarily saying that
i'm just saying that i am sitting here with i'm saying you can't think of many right
that's but there isn't yeah sometimes you have to wait till stuff change and it's become become
an expert in the play but the point i'm making through that rhetorical question is that if you
ask most people that hey tell me a stock that you did a lot of research on,
that you had a lot of conviction on,
that you held for too long.
If you ask somebody that,
most people will either not have an answer
or have to think a long time to have an answer, right?
And that doesn't mean you're never wrong.
What it means is that you are rarely punished
for holding quality companies
that you understand well for long periods of time.
Your market rarely punishes you for that.
Like NVIDIA, the hottest stock of the last decade.
Exactly.
Like, you didn't get punished for not selling.
Right?
Like, you could have sold when NVIDIA doubled, and you could have done well.
Right?
But the high-conviction people who didn't sell, they didn't get punished for that.
The high-conviction people who bought Palantir at, you know, $8 and didn't sell, they didn't get punished for that. The high conviction people who bought Palantir at $8 and didn't sell, they didn't get punished
for that.
The high conviction people who bought Robinhood at $4 or $5 and didn't sell, they didn't get
punished for that.
The high conviction people that bought whatever, I could go down the list, Tesla at $15, didn't
get punished for that.
The people who bought any of these stocks 1,000 or 1,500 or 2,000% ago, they were rewarded
for their conviction, not punished by the market.
And keep in mind, keep in mind, the markets have crashed since then. There have been severe
corrections in the past five years. The COVID crash, okay, say it wasn't a crash because of
a V-shaped recovery, fine, painted as a flash crash. 2022, the markets bled all year long, peaked a trough decline of 27%.
We've had over five, 10% pullbacks. This year, we get an over 20% pullback in the indexes,
40% to 50% pullbacks in names. All of this has happened in the last five years.
And still, these stocks are 1,500, 2,000% higher through those events. Right. So the market has rewarded
conviction, not punished it in those instances. Now, there are other companies, obviously.
Yeah, Intel. Yeah, exactly. That the market has punished conviction. But to me, that's not
punishing conviction. That is punishing people who are trying to be contrarian.
Contrarians have been punished, right? Because people who have shorted the highs in the market have been punished. People who have tried to buy stocks that are being neglected by the markets
have been punished. People who have tried to bottom fish stocks that are underperforming the
markets have been punished. This has been a market in the last five years of leaders leading. That's what this has been a market of. And thematics,
when they pick up steam, leading the market and people who have avoided strength and avoided the
crowded trade have underperformed. Right. And so take that for what you will but like it's it's it's not about finding something that's
like super unique and super smart all the time there are people that are great at doing that
like special situations people or people who are industry specialists are great at doing that i'm
not discouraging people who actually have the expertise to do that but most people don't and
for people that don't,
you know, finding a market leading stock that you understand well, that is growing a lot,
that's in a hot industry that has good management, studying it, you know, charting it out well for entries and exits and trims and ad spots, and then proceeding to manage it well as a consequence of that preparation, that leads to super performance, you know?
And some people want that, some people don't,
but it's not as much work as you think it is.
It's more about preparation.
It's more about knowing these things before you go into the position
as opposed to, like, finding them out on the fly or, you know, trying to,
oh, I bought this
stock and now I'm going to learn about it.
That's what most people do.
And, you know, if you do it the other way around, you'll have a much better time in
the markets, a much easier time to much less stressful time as well.
You won't be panicked every day when stocks go up or down 3%, you know, you'll pay attention
to the bigger structure.
You'll pay attention to the broader story. You'll pay attention to the broader
story, the backdrop, how much staying power the thematic has, are the catalysts still coming,
volume still there, all these things. Anyway, we went a little over today. We're 25 minutes over.
Yeah. One of the things that I also do is, transparently, I buy a lot more ETFs than
probably a lot more people in our spaces do.
Did you know that only 12.8% of U.S. households, or whatever, 12.8% of U.S. households own ETFs at this point? The numbers for stocks are like 50-60% or something?
I don't know.
That seems like a mistake.
That seems like a number that probably should be the other way around, but it is what it is.
number that probably should be the other way around but it is what it is i sent to ask best
about uh pelosi and trading earlier and he was saying that it should be etfs only for congress
members and there should be a holding period um one etf so yeah i don't know i i play more stuff
through etfs i i enjoy having individual stocks.
I own a good bit of them, but my largest holding is, are these couple ETFs. One that I don't work
with this one. One that I like to play is a theme that I kind of believe in is QTOP.
The general theme that the large cap tech names are going to continue outperforming the general
S&P 500 in markets. Maybe you want to look into it, maybe you don't.
You want to give me
a bias one of a company,
a company that I work with,
a bias one if you want to look in, take a Google
into DRUP.
Maybe it's one for you, maybe it's not.
Granite shares, NASDAQ,
disruptors, DRUP.
Qtop though, it is an iShares,
it's a BlackRock one.
Is it like 30 or something?
Yeah, top 30 NASDAQ 100 stocks is basically taking the NASDAQ 100
and concentrating it even further into the top 30 largest names.
So my general bet that what's going to outperform that,
we sit here and talk on these spaces, or some people sit here and talk about like, you know, a lot of these other
names catching up and you know, these these markets any anywhere in general, I continue
to believe that these large names that have dominated will continue to dominate.
And we're in an era of these large cap names leading the markets, holding on stopping.
So this is this is one that I am trying to add to a little bit personally
but yeah I mean it's a good place on the spaces we did go over make sure you're
following the speaker speakers I enjoyed the space I had a good time you
should make sure you're following the host. DocTalk, real-time rating, 1 out of 10.
How much did you enjoy this space?
Was it good content?
You can give us real.
Well, okay, compared to how much you enjoy
the other spaces. We're in the
best two hours of your day
every day. I know that. But where does it compare
within that bar?
I mean, I don't go to any other spaces.
Alright, he's not giving me an answer
that I want. This is the best. Great day.
I mean, that's the literal answer. I'm not on any other spaces.
Why was Evan so feisty today?
I wanted feedback on
how the space... I personally
was maybe a little feisty, but I enjoyed
this space a little more. I don't know.
Was the Jets having an injury or something? Are you all fired up?
No, someone did put Justin Fields
on the trade block. Listen, I don't want some rants.
I don't want to go around.
There's a lot to talk about.
I thought there were some good discussions we had.
I thought this was one of the more valuable spaces we had.
What did you say?
I said you had one too many monsters.
I actually drink my coffee black.
I'm unhealthy enough in most areas will will take my morning
caffeine drug and tell us if possible I generally only have one cup to or we must have given some
guidance or something they're just dropped there down a lot of this Intel trade looking pretty
well but oh yeah Corey was doing guidance in After Hours. Is down more?
It's down 11%. Not as bad as Kava.
Same thing happened last quarter.
Alright.
Good spaces, team.
See you tomorrow.
Peace. Thank you.
