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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: July 15, 2025 Duration: 2:40:48Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, key crypto topics emerged, including the implications of a failed procedural vote on crypto legislation, notable sell-offs in major crypto names, and the potential for future partnerships and fundraising efforts. The conversation highlighted ongoing trends in the crypto space, signaling both growth opportunities and challenges ahead.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. I have more of a voice than I had yesterday. So here we go. Again,
Stocks on Spaces, welcome in everyone. We'll give everyone a moment to get joined up and
connected here this afternoon. It's Power Hour. It is a Tuesday
afternoon, July the 15th. Here we go. And ready to dive into it. Definitely some things going on
today. A lot more. You look at the price action on just like a daily candle or like a one four
hour candle, you'll think, okay, not much happened today. But there's been a little bit of stuff
going on for sure today. And we'll talk about all of it of course right here on this space let me do a little
market update um some of you probably following this developing story that just came out
but essentially the house procedural vote on the crypto measure failed um there's a few follow-up headlines. There's a Fox reporter
that is told the House will try and revote on the rule for the crypto bills around 5 p.m.
Fox also is told that the president is pissed. Very pissed, very upset. But either way,
that's kind of what's going on. If you saw some crypto names, Circle, Coinbase, notably selling off pretty hard.
HUD got a little bit of a sell-off, and it's actually bounced pretty hard off of those loads.
Entire market just rolled over a little bit, just kind of in general.
I think it was more technical than anything.
There wasn't really any additional headlines I saw that maybe moved that.
But there is basically a punch-ball reporter and some others that are talking about a lot of this crypto bill stuff going on. There was some talk
around them wanting to merge that together a little bit as well. So that's kind of what's
going on there. Obviously, we had CPI this morning. There's been some other headlines that have come
out throughout the day. I know Tesla had a headline around a director of sales leaving,
but I won't steal all the thunder here. Just wanted to kind of get us a little introduction here to the day
and everything that's going on. Market is green if you're looking at the NASDAQ, just up about
$2 still on QQQ after the overnight news that I didn't even mention, of course, NVIDIA and H20
over in China. I'm sure we'll hit on that as well during this show. But QQQ, NASDAQ up 0.37%.
The S&P is down 0.2%.
We had some bank earnings this morning.
IWM down a percent and a half today.
And then looking across the board, AMD, NVIDIA having great days.
Broadcom, solid day over there as well.
Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, all green.
A couple other names, Meta, Tesla, and those are red. Some things that
are up a lot, some things that are down a lot, and mostly the market is sideways or unchanged.
And with that said, I've said enough, at least for the kickoff here. Evan, I'm going to toss
you this co-host, and if you want to get a word in, feel free to. If not, we'll start jumping
into the panel
great answer from Evan there so we are just gonna jump straight into the panel here I saw a trident unmute there Evan is good now yeah you can you can yeah I'm
a little busy give me give me a couple minutes gotcha a lot of stuff going on
there I like it okay options Mike I'll bring you in how are you my friend I'm
good how's your voice, bud?
It's getting there. You know, it's one of those things where like, I don't know if you've ever just like, you're not sick, but you lost your voice.
So you just sound like just absolutely awful. But it's just, I guess, a little bit of exhaustion, whatever.
But I'm just happy I can actually get some words out today. And it's a lot more audible than it was yesterday.
So got that going. Appreciate you checking on that.
Mike, how's your day, Ben? What's been on your radar today? What you've been trading? I don't
know. I feel like I ask you about Tesla every day, but it's such a fun one to trade sometimes.
And it seems like there was a little opportunity on the short for that this morning. But
what else has been on your radar today? What you've been trading?
So, you know, the big gap up today made it hard and you
know uh we had a good cpi number in there nobody's really talked about that but that you know cpi
number basically came in line year over year a little higher but not enough to be a problem
and you know that huge gap up on the nvidia news and just kind of was like oh this could be a tough
day you know big gap ups like that are tough and uh for me i i've just done one trade today it was a big one
i grabbed amd calls they heavy right out of the gate and took that for a nice ride and uh you
know huge move on that is going through this big gap although it's it's come off there and it's not
it's not on the highs anymore but tesla tesla to me has just not been the name to be in right now
it's just out of play it's not trading well you It gapped up today, and then it sold. I'm just not
focused on it for right now. It just seems to me like until it takes out
that 50-day area, it's just a problematic.
If you look under the covers, you had J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo
all reported. There were good reports. Cities with the best, they're up.
J.P.gan and wells are
red uh wells their guidance was bad jp morgan's was okay uh but the banks are all getting a hit
on it and the banks had run a lot we talked about that yesterday so you know makes sense for the
come down and when the banks are weak it's a huge part of the indexes that's why you see the idb
iwm getting hit so hard today. Baba had a big day.
I didn't touch it.
You know, under the covers, there's a lot of strength out there.
You mentioned the semis.
You have the SMHs all-time highs, NVIDIA all-time highs, Avgo all-time highs, and AMD nice day.
Microsoft new all-time highs today.
Amazon holding this breakout of 224, got up into the 227 area.
Google also continues to push higher up over 184
apple trying to break a little downtrend right into it here at that 211 area i mean there's strength under the covers and there's still stuff going on it's just narrow right it's just a narrow
market you know specific names we haven't broken below the eight day yet so until we do i'm still
bullish on this market i would love a little here. Seasonality says we should start looking for one. But, you know,
there's a lot of money sitting on the sidelines that missed this run and they are looking and,
you know, they're going to be aggressively buying every little kind of dip. You know,
they're looking to get back into this market. Yeah, great rundown. I mean, that's what,
like, when I look at the market, you mentioned CPI. We still have a two handle on there in the core. Overall, it seemed like it was basically within expectations. IWM did sell off just a little bit today, but it didn't look like there was a big reaction on anything there.
this bid underneath this market is incredible, isn't it? Like it's just any dip, any news headline,
whatever, it just gets bought up immediately. But at the same time, we're seeing some of these
news pops get sold off too. Like right back. I mean, it was just a, it's like a narrow channel
to the upside. I don't know. That's what I see. It's just, you know, the market just doesn't care
right now. And, you know, somebody in our room made a point, you know, we don't really get the
big earnings till next week. Right. Or is it even the week after?
I think it's actually the week after, the week of the 30th.
So, you know, most of the big tech names report the week of the 28th.
So, you know, next week we'll get Tesla and some other names.
But, I mean, it's, you know, the market's going to, you know, it's probably going to sit in a holding pattern until it gets some of those big mega tech names.
Netflix tomorrow night will be interesting. I'm sorry.
Thursday night will be interesting, but you know,
aside from that there's not much there. It's just names,
but not the big ones.
Yeah. It just seems like kind of a,
we're getting more stuff starting today with some of the macro data headlines
and then starting to get into the earnings had the big banks kind of really
kick us off this morning, but I'm with you. Netflix is kind of the first one I really watch for to get going
in the earnings season but yeah that's that's kind of where we're at um do you have any thoughts or
have you been following this this crypto uh bill at all and any of the uh kind of the news around
that I mean I saw it and I know they're going to have another vote again at five. It sounds like, you know, part of the Republicans are fracturing here. They're not happy with everything. They're hearing it. So, you know, you're going to get some resistance in there and we'll see. This is a big one because if it doesn't, this doesn't go through, it's going to look bad for Trump and that's, you know, he's not going to like that.
for Trump, and he's not going to like that. So we'll see how that plays out. But I mean,
Hood came roaring back up, Coyne as well. I mean, I think ultimately there's going to be
a lot of wrangling, but this will probably get done and passed.
Yeah, absolutely. Well, Options Mike, appreciate you kicking us off. As always,
open dialogue. If we have anybody wants to jump in on a certain topic or anything, feel free to do so.
Godfather saw you jump up here as well.
Wanted to see what was on your mind today, what you've been trading, any of the stories that you're tracking.
Yeah, from a trading standpoint, we've just been doing more of what's working and less of what isn't.
And that's, as Mike mentioned,
been fairly narrow in this market. So our focus has been on these ETH treasury or crypto treasury plays from a trading standpoint. You've heard me go off on what I actually think of these things
fundamentally. But look, while the music's playing, we dance and we enjoy the party,
but we stand close to the door in these things. But there is some interesting situations going on here.
I highlighted this in our small cap spaces yesterday that, you know, not all of these names are created equal.
We've seen some tremendous runs due to some, you know, mechanical things with respect to shares that hadn't been qualified on the likes of SBET and BMNR.
on the likes of SBET and BMNR.
And if you look at these names,
the premiums to the underlying crypto valuations
in the case of SBET, for example,
it's around three to three and a half times.
I've been so busy today,
I haven't had the time to crunch the numbers on BTCS or BMNR,
but I suspect they come out somewhere similar.
The name that looks anomalous in all of this to us is BitDigital, BTBT.
If you paid attention to Friday after the close, they filed their S1 regarding the IPO
of their data center business called White Fiber. And obviously with the performance of CRWV,
you know, out of the gate to Forexing from its IPO
and Strength and NBIS and others,
and there's, you know, there's really a dearth
of pure play data center plays out there.
Of course, this whole, you know, conversion of mining
into HBC has captured the market's attention as well.
So I think that IPO, they came out and said, hey, we want to do 100 million.
And then there's another piece that said, hey, we want to retain 80% of this.
So if you do that quick math, you get like 500 million.
I added in the 200 million in cash.
I added in the 300 million in currently held 100,000 ETH.
And I basically get zero premium.
It's basically trading at the market value of all those assets.
I would posit that that data center IPO is probably going to do extremely well
in this kind of a market backdrop.
I would also posit that they've been active on their ATM.
And with this new issue that they announced yesterday,
I think it was some $60 million.
I would not be surprised to see a PR out of them
announcing that that has also been upsized.
Just look at, you can tell from the trading.
This thing clearly-
Wait, Godfather.
I was looking down.
You're one of these ASCS guys.
I'm seeing the A in the name.
It's hitting up here.
Yeah, I was actually going to mention that.
From a technical standpoint, this thing is broken back above some key averages.
There's still this hefty short position in that name.
So once it starts running, it can certainly do so quite buoyantly.
And yeah, we were all over that, picking away at it starts running, it can certainly do so quite buoyantly. And yeah,
we were all over that, picking away at it in this dip into the 40s. So that's been a nice
winner for our community again today as well. But just to finish up on the strategic reserve
that we're seeing with ETH, because it does tie into this vote. Obviously, anything that
impacts the Genius Bill or anything that impacts stable coins, all these things are being built on the Ethereum network.
So, you know, all this ties in.
I agree that I think this is, you know, because it's procedural.
I don't know all of the details, but I gather there is another vote shortly.
And yeah, at the end of the day, I sent a four letter line to our discord, you know, BTFD.
So that's where I stand on that. But yeah, this BTBT looks interesting for that reason.
So I think they're going to come out. They're number three as a publicly listed company after Sharplink.
So SBET, B-A-M-N-R, Tom Lee's thing. They have 160,000.
BTBT is this is the next largest at 100,000. I suspect that they're probably going to be closer to 200,000 just based on what I've calculated on where they could go in terms of their ATM as a percent of the volume,
they could have already purchased in combination again with this 60 million equity deal,
which, of course, hasn't closed. So they haven't bought ETH with that yet.
But I would expect they're going to come out and try to challenge SBET and announce something north of 200,000 ETH.
But that's just speculation on my point. But yeah, that's where we've been focused on a trading basis. A couple of other interesting names in our universe. UNFI is a United Natural Foods. It's a food distributor. It's an interesting company because it's some 31 and a5 billion top-line revenue company.
They had a cyber attack.
The stock went from $33 down to almost $20.
They're coming out with a corporate update tomorrow morning at 8.30 Eastern.
They had at their quarterly results conference call an intention to increase their guidance because they've just been carving basis points after basis points out of the OPEX line.
And of course, you know, when you've got 30 billion on the top line, you know, every 50 basis points is like 160 million in OPEX savings. And you've seen it in terms of their free cash flow profile,
which was up materially year over year, some 200%.
So I think they're going to announce that this cyber event is effectively behind them.
I think they're going to reiterate their guidance increase for 2026.
I think some of the unknowns that we don't know, of course, are what their cybersecurity insurance coverage is going to be and how long it will take.
There's obviously some other risks.
Maybe they get sued by customers for breach of contracts or what have you.
And we don't have a dollar amount on the spoilage and inventory as a result of their inability to ship from some of their distribution centers. But that looks like a low risk, potentially high reward situation
with a very near term catalyst. So that's the name we've been focusing on today. Again, that's
UNFI. What else? Just in terms of macro, before we got this news from NVIDIA last night,
we already were seeing the VIX registering last night, we already were seeing, you
know, the VIX registering six-month lows. We were seeing a little bit of fatigue in, you know, some
of these market-leading areas, which has been, you know, again, as was pointed out by Mike and
others, you know, contributing to a market that has fairly narrow breadth.
And you look at the other indicators, look at the NAIIM, all the other,
the fear of greed indicators, all the rest of these things seem to point that we're in
like the seventh inning kind of thing in terms of a potential for a pullback season.
Seasonality wise, the first two weeks of July are typically the strongest.
July is typically much stronger than August.
September is typically weaker than than August.
So, you know, we're probably at a good time to be taking some profits before we get a little bit of a swoon.
time to be taking some profits before we get a little bit of a swoon. And it'd be nice to have
some powder going into what we think will be a really robust sort of seasonally strong period
of the year from October through to year end, to the extent that we get, you know, some further
progress on the regulatory side of things, to the extent that, you know, we've got a southbound Fed
funds rate, to the extent that we get some clarity on geopolitics and trade.
And we get through what's by all accounts going to be a trough in terms of this year's annual earnings at this upcoming quarter.
Yeah, I think the outlook for a market that's six to 12 months forward looking is pretty solid.
forward looking is pretty solid. And to the extent that we do see some seasonal weakness here,
I think it will be fairly well contained, you know, for the reasons that were also mentioned
in terms of positioning, etc. So yeah, it's easy to find things to worry about. But at the same
time, I think there's a case to be made for multiple expansion.
And even without that multiple expansion, I look at the earnings estimates and the revisions,
you know, going into the early part of 2026, and they start to tick pretty quickly into the double-digit category.
Goldman Sachs has got first quarter 26 earnings up 10%, followed by second quarter, 26, up 16%, 15% in third quarter and 13% in fourth
quarter. So, I mean, these are numbers better than the best quarter we saw last year, which was
third quarter, which came in at 15%. So, yeah, you know, there's a wall to worry. There always is.
Yeah, you know, there's a wall of worry. There always is. But yeah, I think the backdrop looks fantastic. And I think the setup for some diversification or some broadening out to some of the other sectors is there as well. the NII margins that we saw out of Wells Fargo and JPM.
And, you know, we were just a second ago at the new lows on the XLF today on 1.5%. But again, I think with the southbound Fed funds rate, the bull steepener we're seeing in that curve,
the regulatory tailwinds that we're likely to get in the second half of the year with the supplementary leverage ratio, etc.
Things are setting up nicely for the financials.
So yeah, probably missing some things,
but oh yeah, the other themes, look,
rare earths, drones, nuclear, LIDAR, space, batteries.
I'm looking at these subsectors
and some of the percentage returns
and I haven't seen this much green on my screen
since the fourth quarter
of 2024 when a lot of the pros leave the market and and retail runs rampant so there's definitely
some uh some level of froth in this market um but uh it's a it's a good market for uh for trading
it's a great market for days and it's a great market for scalps so make hay while the sun is
shining market for days and it's a great market for scalps. So make hay while the sun is shining.
I'll ask a quick follow-up. Godfather, I would love SBAT. Can you break that down a little bit?
Maybe it's a selfish question, but I'm sure somebody's probably curious as well.
But SBAT, I see it on my screen.
I see it all over social media now.
But what do they do?
What's the trade thesis behind this one?
Yeah, look, maybe they have a legacy business,
but it's inconsequential at this point.
They had done a big rollback to the stock,
so there was essentially nothing outstanding. And then they just started
doing treasury offerings to buy ETH. So, you know, as of yesterday, they were 215,000 ETH.
As of this morning, I think they're 280.6. So I hadn't updated this. I'm just in the middle of building my spreadsheet, but let's do the quick math on this. ETH price is what? 3076. So you've got an ETH value of 860 million and you've got a market cap that's around 2.3 billion. So, you know, again, this is what I'm talking about in terms of
difficult to rationalize fundamentally, you know, you're paying 2.7 times the underlying value of
the ETH. Yes, they can stake this and earn more ETH, but you're talking small, you know, lower
single digit type returns for 5%.
I think some of the best guys are juicing that to like 7%, but that's anomalous.
And yeah, so look, it's great for these guys.
As long as they're trading at a premium, this is micro strategy all over again, right?
They can just issue shares creatively and continue to buy Ethereum.
Ethereum is on a rampage because of, you know,
all this recent market love over stable coins
as a result of the regulatory things, including the Genius Act.
So people are looking to get ahead of that trade.
Before it was all about Bitcoin,
and, you know, now folks are turning their attention
a little bit more to some of the alts.
And, you know, the two highest profile ones after Bitcoin,
of course, was Solana and Ethereum.
So it's a bull market phenomenon.
It's going to work until it doesn't.
And in the meantime,
the Tom Lees and others
that are associated with these companies,
he, of course, being associated with BMNR,
and I'm sure the math looks a little similar to that,
will be raking in the dough any more questions that was good on my side if i'm gonna if i'm gonna get diluted on my face i'd rather do it
than uh whoever espet is yeah the amazing amazing amazing amazing amazing thing to me is that you
know these guys and bt BTBT is no different.
They're all doing the same thing.
They're absolutely hurrying themselves in this market because the market is giving them the opportunity to do it.
So at the same time that every two weeks they announce another public offering,
they've all got like half a billion or billion dollar ATMs that are active.
And so they're doing up to like 20% of the volume
on a daily basis, some of these things.
You can just see it in trading.
So, I mean, kudos to them.
Like I said, it works until it doesn't.
Enjoy the party, but thanks for the door.
I think this kind of goes to what Stock Talks was saying,
is dance when the music is dancing.
I know there's been a theme of,
hey, are we extended here at this point?
Are we maybe in for a pullback?
Yeah, maybe.
But this underlying tone of risk-on attitude
feels like it's still here when the music is dancing.
The thesis of Tom Lee in Ethereum
is crazy when we're talking about long-term
and crazy when we're talking about most of the time.
But in this market, I don't think the the is have to go that much further than that sometimes you just
until obviously it doesn't you have to have your your kind of entries and exits in in mind yeah and
and don't be don't don't be delusional you know some things are trades and some things are
investments and uh i don't know i keep two buckets for that reason. And yeah, act accordingly.
Oh, yeah. I want to ask one more follow-up, actually. Godfather, the thematic piece that kind of just jogged a thought in my head.
We're seeing some of these sector themes and maybe it's a two-part question. So my question is going to be around, are you just chasing the themes while they're hot?
And of the themes you mentioned, drones, for example, I've seen a lot of talk about drones and different things.
Are these themes that you look at and you go, okay, there's continued three months, six months, a year out?
Or are there some that you're going, okay, it's the next month, two months, three months to maybe invest or trade over here?
Yeah, so good question.
And this plays right into my wheelhouse because I'm a fundamental guy, an ex-analyst and a
CFA.
And I look at all these things from a fundamental standpoint.
If they're something I'm going to put in my investing account.
And a lot of these themes I own in both sides of my trading strategy.
For example, LIDAR, The name that's up 13% today
that's leading my LiDAR screen is OUST. And you heard me on small cap spaces yesterday pounding
the table on this saying fair value in this thing is mid-30s and the very first approved
blue UAS 3D LiDAR. And it's only, it's only a matter of time before, you know,
Andro goes to them and says, you know, we need your technology as a subcontractor and
some massive deal with the DOD. And, you know, this, this company is doing 30 million a year
or 30 million a quarter in, in, in revenue. And, you know, one contract like that, and this thing
is trading with a four handle. So name like that. Yeah, absolutely.
Love that the wind is at our back in terms of this theme.
I mean, LiDAR plays into robots.
It plays into industrial automation.
It plays into smart cities.
It plays into EVs, autonomous driving, you know, all these things.
So, but you have to differentiate.
And then you've, you know, I'm just looking at that screen and, you know, below OUST, I've got WIMI and HOLO.
And, you know, anyone who's looking at the markets knows that these are just, you know, trading names.
They're they're pump and dumps. They're, you know, the shit goes, as I like to call them.
So it's fine. You can have a barbell. And, you know, another good example of a barbell that we've got going right now in another theme that's working is drones.
So, you know, we own KTOS because fundamentally they're one of the best positioned companies.
Technology runs through the entire pipe related to drones and UAVs, etc.
to drones and UAVs, et cetera. And then we own UMAC because, you know, Donald Trump Jr. is a
shareholder. He's an advisor. And, you know, if you look at the company, there's not a lot of
operations there, but they just managed to get off a big equity deal. They just, you know,
leased a 17,000 square foot warehouse in Florida. They've got expensive paper now. They'll backfill
that. So, you know, that's a theme trade.
And so, yeah, I think in a market like this, they forge you the opportunity to both play and make money with quality companies as well as, you know, some of these, you know, shit goes.
All the more float, you know, shitco here, because this dropped after hours and it's going to run huge.
And so we jumped in on it. It was Xena, Z-E-N-A, which is a total promote.
Zena, Z-E-N-A, which is a total promote.
And, you know, I think the stock is up some 30% since we got into it.
So, yeah, know what you own and trade accordingly.
Yeah, it was a great rundown there.
Evan, did you have any follow-up questions there?
I know you mentioned Stock Talk, and that's kind of in his wheelhouse over there.
No, Monitib was, once you bring up the small-cap defense, I want to bring Monitib into it.
I was looking at Kratos today.
I think that conversation yesterday around the U.S. sending really kind of to NATO, but to Ukraine,
is just another buoy in this area.
But, yeah, I'm curious sure someone names are getting affected from it
Yeah, I mean, I'm a huge Kratos fan as well as you guys know
I've owned it for a long time
A Kratos is the best position mid cap defense company in the world and I don't think it's particularly close
You know we talked Godfather did a great job covering the drones there.
So I won't be repetitive on that. But yeah, Kratos has drone exposure, but Kratos also has
autonomous weapons exposure, and perhaps the broadest autonomous weapons portfolio
in the world. And again, when you make these sort of statements about
a sub $10 billion company, it's meaningful
because defense contracting is dominated by the primes and has been dominated by the primes
for decades.
And my thesis on mid-cap aerospace and defense, which has been a stalwart in my portfolio
for most of this year, I owned eight or nine names in the basket at the start of the year.
Now I own just three core names on the
defense side. And then if you want to count Embraer, which obviously has underperformed
the last couple of days because of these Brazil tariffs, if you want to count that as aerospace,
I guess you can count that too. But the three that I had going into today and actually cut
Mercury Systems today, which was one of my compliments, were Kratos, Huntington Ingalls,
and Mercury Systems. And now I just have Kratos and Huntington Ingalls.
Those are the only two.
I'm really attempting to just center around my conviction in Kratos.
I think the monthly chart is outrageously bullish.
I posted it like a few weeks ago.
I think the stock's going to $100.
Not tomorrow.
Maybe, probably not even this year.
Although maybe. Depends on how crazy the back half of the year gets. stock's going to 100 bucks not tomorrow not maybe probably not even this year although maybe depends
on how crazy the the back half of the year gets but um yeah within five years i think the stock
is going to 100 and i think that that's frankly reasonable um kratos has like i said autonomous
weapons exposure drones exposure next gen missile defense exposure um they are one of the most recent acquisitions they made.
I've talked about this before the last few years was Florida Turbine Technologies.
There's been a ton of hype.
Another one of these sort of thematics is around hypersonic and supersonic flight.
You know who makes all of those cutting-edge engines?
Florida Turbine Technologies.
So the stock is just grossly undervalued, in my opinion.
And the purely fundamental picture may not say that if you just look at the balance sheet. But I think if you look at the plethora of optionality here, it's really hard to imagine that they don't land either prime contracting status or at the very least subcontracting status on the majority of these next-gen defense things
that are being discussed by the White House and by Senate Republicans and House Republicans in
the last few months. So yeah, I think it's the best position defense stock in the world, and
I'm not selling any. I have a position in shares with around 21 cost basis, and I also have 20,
27 leaps at the 35 and 40
strikes, which I haven't sold any of, and I'm not going to sell any of them. You know,
in a meaningful market pullback, I would probably just add to the position. You know,
when they had earnings earlier this year, the stock actually went down after, put a post in
my journal for our members at that time and said, I don't see why the stock's down.
You know, everything I heard from their CEO on the call was very bullish. And I mentioned then
that I was increasing my position by 10%. And then a few weeks ago, when the stock was knifing,
I said the same thing, that it was a dip by opportunity. And the thing has just continued
to go up. And so, yeah, it's my largest aerospace and defense holding. It's a top five position in my portfolio and I haven't sold any. You know,
it falls to me in my high conviction basket with names like Centris Energy, which I haven't sold
any of, like Nebius, which I haven't sold any of, like Robinhood, which I haven't sold any of.
So those four are my core names in my portfolio. I think it gives me exposure across multiple sectors that I'm interested in staying involved in.
Those are sort of my horses.
You know, I have a lot of other positions.
For our Discord members, you can see my full portfolio, but I have 23 total positions currently.
But those four are not only larger weighting than the rest, but much higher conviction.
only larger weighting than the rest, but much higher conviction.
Most of the other names in my portfolio, I will manage risk much more aggressively than
I would on those positions.
So yeah, I mean, we talked about Nebius a lot yesterday when it was up 17%.
It was up again today.
Seems to be sort of a relentless acknowledgement and a bid under that stock because of what's
going on with all of the
thematic opportunities they're injected and frankly you know taloka av ride i talked about
these yesterday for people that missed it you can go listen to our spaces from yesterday i went over
nebius's various optional exposures but um yeah i think you'll wake up in 10 years and that'll be
a 50 billion dollar stock um a lot of good stuff happened today.
I think I came to the conversation late, but I think Emp and Mike were talking about how performance has sort of become more narrow and concentrated.
And I agree with that, but I think this is where stock pickers win.
And, you know, on a day like today where we had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13,
14 positions in the green on a day like today.
I'm happy with that.
You know, um, I'm, I'm happy with that stock picking and we had pullbacks on a few stuff.
I cut SMLR today.
It had a brutal knife off the open.
Um, I didn't want it to go red on me.
My entry was around 40, 80.
It felt like 41 this morning.
So I just cut it. Uh, and you know, I don't, I just don't like letting trades go red on me. My entry was around 40, 80. It fell to like 41 this morning. So I just cut it. And I just don't like letting trades go red on me. So I did cut that position today.
And I did make a new ad in TOST, Toast, which is a FinTech name. I mentioned a few weeks ago on
here that I really liked how FinTech was setting up and wanted to get involved. So I took a chance
to do that today and put in a starter on toast.
It's not a big position for me, 3.5% of the portfolio.
I have a couple of the 48 calls expiring in August as a leverage complement to the equity position.
So I did that today.
Like I said, small ad, falls below the 21 EMA.
I'll be out of that.
Indy had a really nice pop back up before today with the semiconductor exposure that's heating up.
And so, yeah, things were working today nicely.
And on a day where the indexes were acting like shit, Bitcoin was acting like shit,
I just feel good about having so many spots about performance in the portfolio.
So, yeah, I think performance ticked down today for me by 0.23% on the overall portfolio. So a little bit of a red day, I guess, but that's not horrible.
You know, I mean, I'm still up 106.4% on the year. So I mean, whatever. I mean, you're going to have
you're going to have these little, you know, whatever. I don't want to call it a red day,
even because I'm not really red 0.23%. but you're going to have pullbacks in individual stocks. And as an individual stock picker,
that's the whole...
People ask me like, oh, you know, the stock's red today. Why is it red? Or this is red. Or,
hey, you opened the swing trade a few weeks ago and today it's red. Like I get those kinds of
questions all the time. And I just tell people, look, stocks don't go up a straight line.
You have to learn how to recognize and identify periods of consolidation.
You have to learn how to recognize and identify things like low volume pullbacks into support.
You know, low volume pullbacks into support is bullish, not bearish.
So, you know, once you figure out all these basics about just reading the market and reading
charts, position management
becomes a lot easier and you don't get stressed out. You know, you just look at your stocks and
you're like, hey, this is past max risk. Get rid of it. Okay. This isn't cool. I'll stick with it.
I mean, you know, it's not easy, but it is simple. So yeah, I was really excited about
today, honestly, just because so many of my stocks were working in a day where I thought a lot of things would be down.
You know, ASTS pushing back through 50.
I have a mean cost basis on that now.
Ever since I exercised those 25 calls, I have ASTS cost basis at 28.80.
So that's a pretty comfortable cost basis to be sitting here with the stock 50 plus.
I'd like to see a close on indy above four which i
mean borrowing anything into the close looks like we're gonna get um mbis obviously working it back
into that 55 spot 52 week highs were at 55 75 you'll probably see a little bit of resistance
there but the bid today was awesome off the lows um so yeah i'm just keeping keeping my eyes out
keep it staying sharp, but nothing's really
concerning me yet. I know I say that every week, but I mean, you know, until the market breaks
down, I can't be in panic mode. And back in February, for those of you who listen to the
show all the time, you guys know I was very pessimistic in February. Um, but you know,
But, you know, a lot has changed since then. And technically, certainly a lot has changed since then. And, you know, I wasn't a dip buyer in April. I actually was posting, I was kind of on a rant today on Twitter, just mocking people for not showing their performance. But I didn't buy the dip in April. You know, I had people who were like talking to me like, oh, you know, how did you do so well without buying the dip in April? The short answer to that is, is I just didn't get shaken out.
a lot has changed since then. And technically certainly a lot has changed since then.
well without buying the dip in April. The short answer to that is, is I just didn't get shaken
out. You know, a lot of people think like, Hey, when the market's correct, you have to buy the
dip to outperform. That's not even remotely true. You don't have to catch any knives to do well in
the market ever period. Not in the indexes, not an individual name, nothing like the idea that
you have to be a buyer in these perilous, bloody times in the market, it's because everyone loves that Warren Buffett quote, right?
Like buy when there's blood in the streets or whoever's quote that is.
I don't know.
I think it's Buffett.
But everyone loves that quote.
So they're like, oh, yeah, I got to buy when things are down.
And like if you're a long-term investor, it helps your cost basis.
Sure, it's great.
But you don't have to buy weakness to do well in the market at all ever.
You just don't have to do it, period.
And I'm proof of that because I don't buy weakness.
You know, I didn't buy the dip in April.
My portfolio is of 105%, the whole portfolio this year,
without buying a single share of anything in the dip in April.
I got re-long on names that I liked in mid-May.
After the rebound was already halfway complete,
that's when I started throwing longs on the table.
Now you might scratch your head and be like,
well, don't you think the risk reward was worse there?
Or, you know, weren't you worried about buying stocks
that had recovered 30% off the lows?
My answer to that is no,
because the technical structure looked much better
at that juncture, much better.
And so when the technical structure to me,
when I look at a chart and go
that looks great i'm much more convicted and much more able to buy in size you know size
is what matters in training size and conviction being able to be long a stock with enough leo
what are you barking at
give me a second.
Stock Talk, you're getting robbed in the background right now.
All right, we'll come back to Stock Talk here.
Sam, let's let your hand go up.
I know you kind of jumped in with a comment.
Did you want to jump in? No, I mean, I agree with everything StockTalk is saying and probably a few people
here to be honest. I mean, it is a narrow rally right now. Not everything is working.
There's a lot of things that have been working that are no longer working anymore.
And in my opinion, I think that China is probably going to be working
at least during whatever perceived weakness we might be getting in the near term future.
If you look at the market in general, obviously China is up a lot, but a lot of the data center
picks and shovels are up. But most of the other stuff are not necessarily catching a bit here,
especially on a pullback. One thing that was actually kind of interesting to notice was that you had that midday news or intraday news that came with something with crypto.
We were talking about this on the Wolf Trading Spaces.
And you saw a little bit of a pullback from Coin, from Circle, from Hood and everything.
And what I was thinking was like, how was you had such a
strong uptrend when it came to a lot of these stocks? And then you get one headline and like
you see right now, like basically recovered, maybe like 50% or more of its retracement,
especially hood. Hood is basically recovered at this point. The trend is still strong. If a
headline like that can take it down. And this is even if you look at Oscar logical pointed out
earlier this morning, but this observation, which is a very bullish sign when you get a massive like that can take it down. And this is even if you look at Oscar, Logical pointed out earlier
this morning with his observation, which is a very bullish sign when you get a massive downgrade
after multiple red days, and then you get a very big downgrade in a stock from an analyst perspective,
and it ends up green. It sounds like seller's a little bit exhaustive with that name. So that
was pretty interesting. Went along that name with small size portfolio. But especially during this narrow lead when it comes to the stock market, I wouldn't really attribute this with like, you know, this is the top of the stock market.
But like, obviously, performance is narrowing very much.
You have a lot of names that have been strong in the belt, CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, and so on, that are just not participating in this rally.
CrowdStrike is about 5% to 10%.
Either way, I'm seeing a little headline here.
It looks like we've got another Donald Trump Jr.
He's joining another SPAC board.
Oh, no, this was already tweeted out.
Never mind, never mind, never mind.
He tweeted it out, but it looks like it's actually happening.
He tweeted it out on July 10th.
CLBR, they're just now talking about it.
Yeah, it just hit the newswire.
It was tweeted out, though.
It was tweeted out.
It's not super new.
Keep going. CLBR, that's super old news. out, though. It was tweeted out. It's not super new. CLBR is super old news.
Yeah, exactly.
I was just seeing it.
For some reason, it's happening.
Something's happening right now about it.
We're about to go to merger.
That's why.
Yeah.
Yeah, the deal is changing to PEW as a ticker.
And yeah, he was previously involved as an advisor,
but it's new that he's joining the board.
That's all.
Gotcha.
Okay.
I feel like that stock has two and a half years,
at least three and a half years or whatever it is.
Sorry, Sam.
No, it's all good.
It's all good, Evan.
By the way, it was great meeting you.
Yeah.
It was great meeting you.
I thought maybe it didn't exist
i thought you were just ai for a while and uh no you're real you're very i still could be dude
robots video they could make optimists money they could have plugged me into the matrix before i
went there and i could have just imagined the entire thing but it was a great event um but
anyways uh one of the uh one of the tickers that I might be looking to dollar cost average into
just for more of a long-term perspective to collect yield was BABO, ticker symbol B-A-B-O,
which is the Yield Max Options and Conversion. Instead of MSTR or MicroStrategy, it's Alibaba
or B-A-B-A. And these are the kinds of things where I'm not necessarily looking to go heavy in all at once, but something more of like averaging in and taking in profits that I get from the shorts and trades into more of these options income spaces where obviously the risk is still high because they're leveraging a complex strategy using synthetic positions in these companies by selling a put on it and also selling a shorter term long call on it.
And some of them, they do debit spreads, but some of them they don't, or call credit spreads, some of them they don't.
But whatever it is, they provide a little bit of a yield cushion
and also take part in the upside from that one.
And seeing that BABA has just been, I would just say,
consolidating for the last six or seven months.
Obviously, it's not near its high, around 140-ish,
but I would just say it's created a massive bull flag
from a weekly or monthly candle.
But you take a catalyst like today where BABA is up like 8%,
I think it has a long way to go considering the fundamentals.
What was, Sam, what was the catalyst today for BABA?
Well, the catalyst today, it wasn't directly with BABA,
but BABA is one of the largest hyperscalers in China.
It's actually one of the largest hyperscalers in the entire world.
When you think about Amazon,
obviously the largest hyperscaler in the entire world,
also with e-commerce, BABA is basically the Amazon of China.
So if you think about the fact that
you essentially had the most powerful chips available
that China could buy, made available again,
that basically puts you that much more ahead
as a little boost in the AI data center race.
So that's why I think China's catching a bid.
It's not because, hey, we could buy the's not because hey we could buy the h20 chips and
we buy the mi series chips again from amd or jensen wang whatever it is it's the fact that
you obviously have a lot of incentive for a lot of these companies to start racking up their data
centers with more compute and therefore increase the throughput and increase the potency of their
ai models so whether that's deep seek whether that's DeepSeek, whether that's, I forget the name of BABA's model,
but obviously it's going to put them that ahead of the game.
And when you think of a hyperscaler,
they're providing compute for other companies.
A lot of Chinese companies use BABA
because they are closed off from using hyperscalers
in the US due to compliance purposes,
not just from their companies or their government,
but also from Amazon or the US perspective.
So they have no choice but to go to hyperscalers like BABA or whatever else is internationally
available. And this is why you're seeing NBIS or Nebius catching a bit today along with everything
else and along with the other picks and shovels that have to do with AI data centers and picks
and shovels, because now that they can use H20 chips and MI series chips, they are going
to start building more data centers.
But on top of that, of course, you have Google continuing to throw money more at the data
center expansion and so on.
But when you really stretch a lot of these massive hyperscalers thin, where they have
a lot of demand as far as who they want to sell Compu to, you have the smaller players like NBIS and also Baba,
but not necessarily building their own data centers out,
but they're obviously contracting other companies to do it.
It basically gives a second wave of just building out more data center compute.
Anything that really is high in demand as far as the software side and entry side
is going to require the data center
compute so this is why the pits and shovels usually works most of the time because they don't need to
be the ones who need to worry about i'm going to sell this copy this kind of this and so on
you basically have a big player that comes in perhaps it's baba renting the compute or perhaps
it's them building out the compute but they're going to be buying these H20 chips hand over fist because to them, that is probably one of the best chips available for the best data center company out there like NVIDIA.
Along with that, you have a cheaper product from AMD, like the MI series that they could also buy from.
But they're going to go wild on this because guess what?
We don't know how long this is going to last for.
We don't know how long this window is going to last for as far as being able to buy these chips from U.S. companies.
And also, when you think about that as well, who makes these chips?
TSN does. Taiwan Semiconductor. They make these chips.
So I wouldn't be surprised if that continues on a run.
This is like basically, if anybody has a kid, I have a son, he could be like dead tired toward the end of the day. But then all of a sudden,
boom, out of nowhere, he could catch a second wind and he's no longer tired anymore. This is
kind of like that when you come to AI. But in fact, if you think about it from this perspective,
the tailwind has already been there. It's just giving that second oomph to kind of go a little
bit further. And in my opinion, I think that China might catch a good bid for the next, I would say,
at least few weeks.
And we've seen correlation-wise how China can run while the U.S. remains stagnant.
We saw that back in January when you had the deep-seek stuff come out late January, and then China started to catch a bid and U.S. was essentially flat.
And we could see it again. I'm not saying we're going to see it, but I'm saying there's a pretty good probability we're going to see it because you see a date like today where the US is, the Qs are up 30 basis points, S&P 500 is down 20 basis points. It's essentially flat, but China is up
like two or 3% on the ETF basis. I mean, BABA is up 8% today, just rallying into the closer right
now in the ADR perspective. K-Web, this is all going to gap up tomorrow, in my
opinion. I'm pretty sure it's going to gap
up tomorrow based on whatever inflows I'm seeing.
Plus, a lot of people are saying that they're seeing a lot
of calls come in from the gate
when it comes to BABA. So, I'm
bullish China. I bought leaps on China this
morning, bought leaps on BABA, bought leaps
on K-Web, bought some degenerate
leaps on C-Web. I am
gung-ho David Tepper bullish in China right now.
Yeah, we kind of talked about that earlier, Sam, and that just seems to be the consensus
reaction to what's going on here.
I was curious, Monitiv, do you have any thoughts on that with uh with the h the h20s
from nvidia now being what was it licensed i believe is what the headline was do i have thoughts
look h20s were were ready i mean there was a lot that was already produced and unable to be shipped
and they were not looking for other buyers.
They took that four and a half billion charge
and they said that they had another billion charge
that they expected to take later in the year.
So that's five and a half billion of potential value
that was lost just because of inability to ship H20s.
A quarter.
What's that?
Per quarter, right?
It was five and a half billion for the year because they redeployed all the components
that they could already, right?
They took down that supply chain altogether internally.
So they're going to have to put it back. It depends on how much the...
But minimally, everything that they wrote down
can be written back up again, right?
And that's pure profit on, you know,
stuff that's already sitting in the warehouse.
So, you know, expect a minimal, you know,
reversal of that in the current quarter we are in
and much of it to be reversed the next quarter.
Again, I will reiterate here, I've been saying for multiple quarters now,
that expect a margin peak around 80% during the black oil cycle, and I think it's coming sooner than later.
Dan Nystead had a bunch of posts yesterday about
the demand for the high ends, right? The high end of Blackwells, he said the demand was white hot,
but interestingly enough, he said in the next post, the demand for low end of the Blackwell line is several times larger than planned. So we're talking about across the board,
massive understatement of expectations on Blackwell. And I think the margin is going to
shoot up substantially, 300, 400 basis points to go up to about 78, I think this quarter and
probably 80 next quarter. I mean mean the current quarter we're in
so so yeah i am still extremely bullish nvidia again look this will unravel at some point in
time but that time is not now that time is not this quarter or even the next quarter for that
matter assuming we don't get any surprises from any of the you know the the big spenders right
you've already seen zuck said that he's going to
probably spend in the hundreds of billions to add to data center capacity,
adding five gigawatt data centers.
So at least one major customer, and Oracle
recently confirmed it too, so that would make two major customers have confirmed
or expanded their CapEx. So that would make two major customers have confirmed or expanded their
CapEx.
So much of that's going to come to,
to Nvidia.
so I am super bullish Nvidia.
I think the,
the,
the dog days are probably further laggy for me or is it,
is it him or me?
Just,
just you,
Evan.
You're all good.
Continue.
Okay. It's all right. I passed to, you you know listen to what you guys are saying but uh but yeah i mean look all the doubts about you know what problems nvidia
could face i think are out of the window for now uh that doesn't mean you know it's gonna it's gonna
remain this way that doesn't mean that this policy cannot change but both nvidia and amd
have probably had a lot of stocks staged in in asia in their uh you know regional uh supply centers
at their at their odms and they're going to release those right away so more than likely
they're already shipping them to china so so you're going to see a surprise upside this quarter minimally
and a substantial upside next quarter for all of them that were hand slapped for,
what, seven weeks now, seven, eight weeks now.
So that's the upside surprise on NVIDIA side of it, certainly.
I think that's also going to benefit all the NVIDIA side of it, certainly. I think that's also going to benefit all the NVIDIA suppliers
and the ODMs and the large integrators.
So all of them are going to get the benefit of,
you know, what was it?
When we started the year,
it's estimated that China sales was going to be something
like 23 or 25 billion.
And that was completely in doubt as late as two weeks ago. So from 23 billion, I think they've done 8 billion in sales before the ban went into effect. So we have about 15, 16 billion of sales
that'll probably get added to some extent in the numbers.
And you're going to start seeing those, you know, you already saw a whole bunch of analysts taking
up price targets for Nvidia. So yeah, I am bullish Nvidia. I, the other stock I talk about a lot here
is Google. You know, I keep hearing, yeah, a search market is dead and they're going to lose their shirt and
their market share. I call complete bullshit on that. It will die. It will die a very, very slow,
long death. And it's going to be a long, long, long, long time before that's a problem.
I don't see it this year. Rounding error size losses in market share is not going to do a damn thing.
I think they are making that up in plenty of other places.
So, I mean, search revenue grew at 9%, over 9% last quarter.
So, yeah, they might not be growing as much as the entire search market,
you know, because other smaller players are growing faster.
But when you have 90% market share, you can't really grow at, you know, breakneck speed.
So I'm still very bullish on Google in the short to medium term.
Let us see where it goes from there.
The others, right, I talked about that, that could get benefit.
Arista, for example, pulled back all the way into the 90s.
I talked about that.
I still like that.
I think it still goes back to, you know, revisit close to the highs,
but somewhere above 115 or so, I will get out of that position.
What else?
That's about it it unless somebody has questions
oh uh i did want to talk briefly about uh this morning's um earnings right so so again look i
i don't care about the headlines everybody has read it yeah they jpm beat and they guided up a
little bit uh wells fargo beat and they missed the guidance a tiny bit.
That really doesn't matter that much for banks. Look at the internals, look at, you know, where
the trend of net interest income is, look at, you know, where the net interest margins, look at the
write-offs, see if that's expanding, look at the loan demand, you know, look at the liquidity ratios, the capital ratios, all of those
are trending well. So the pullback you see is a function of, you know, the run we've seen in the
last, you know, few months, you know, and it's been furious. And in Wells Fargo's case, the addition
of their capital controls being lifted, you know, six weeks ago now. So they've had more than their share of the run.
So a pullback is inevitable. And I don't think that's bad. It certainly has nothing to do with
earnings quality or guidance for that matter. I think it's just a matter of some profit taking
because of the run. Great run down there, Monitiv.
If anybody else had something to jump in with, of course, feel free.
I was actually curious, when you mentioned this, the data center stuff, where does it
ever stop?
Or is that just outside of the foreseeable future that they're just going to have to
continue building all these stuff? I mean, you mentioned Meta, you've mentioned these different ones.
Obviously, at some point it will slow down, but is that like far out?
Like, what does that look like?
No, no, I don't think it's that far out.
Look, we have been expecting the economy to weaken.
We've been expecting the consumer to slow down.
It's not happened yet, right?
So every quarter we have this doubt when we start, you know, the earning season and the
consumer is still strong. So it's sort of getting pushed out a little bit here and there. But
the real sense right now is if we are going to have a slowdown at the rate we are getting it,
If you're going to have a slowdown at the rate we are getting it, they probably won't stop for at least another year.
If the slowdown accelerates dramatically, they'll be forced to change their plans.
Now, you've had more than one CEO say that they are willing to accept the risk of overspending and not willing to accept the risk of underspending on AI.
So that will hold till the economy weaken so fast that they don't have a choice but to pull that back.
So there's multiple levels of spend, right? blackwells are obviously far more efficient and more likely to generate you know a higher or
most certainly to generate a higher return you know on a per hour basis than than the hopper
series and the earliest of the hopper investments is probably for most part starting to get written
off uh you know in the books of the hyperscalers, three to four years time.
So you're going to see a replacement cycle starting to kick in
and you're going to see them
start to allocate that data center
to the more efficient
and higher returning chips,
which would be the Blackwells.
So there's that
and we still don't have
any good, uh, um,
idea on, uh, you know, how the rest of the data center, uh, you know, demand is going to,
you know, stay in place. We know that the AI demand is solid. So that's, that's bulk of where
the spend is going. All of it is probably going to change as soon as we see a change in the cadence of slowdown
if that increases you're going to see the you know the the capex uh start to get pushed i mean
they might not necessarily change their capex plan they just won't spend as much as expected to begin
with and then they'll silently start
taking it down, right? Because to come out and say, you're pulling back Apex is probably,
you know, accepting that, you know, there's a bigger problem than, you know, then the market
is willing to give them credit for and, you know, not knowing that answer beforehand. So they'll
probably just end up not spending as much as planned.
And that would be the first sign
that they're not willing to
commit to the capex
that they
planned for or at least
guided to.
Yeah, appreciate that rundown.
Market did close there officially, basically break even on the NASDAQ.
We did close red on the S&P and small caps closed down about 2%.
A little bit of a rug there in the close.
There was also another day, another headline of somebody buying Bitcoin, Cantor Equity
Partners is apparently in talks for what what, $3 billion, I believe.
CEPO is the SPAC ticker that was hitting the wires there.
It closed.
And that's where we're at.
Stock Talk, I know you got cut off there a little bit earlier.
I don't even remember where I got cut off because I got a call while I was talking,
and I don't know if that's when I got cut off.
One thing I would like to say, though, you had some comments about Leo but he was right it was a good bark someone
was at the door it was a good bark yeah no no I gave that to him after so yeah I did give him
credit just want to make sure Leo had some of his flowers yeah it was it was a good bark because I
thought he was barking at nothing and then I went over there and there was there was somebody at the
door so yeah I didn't move my car but anyway um I don't know where I left off. But yeah, look, this is a market that is tightening in terms of narrowness of performance, especially on days like today, where your stock picking stands out, you know, and again, I don't know which names I went over but joe b you know i talked a lot about that two weeks ago uh i swapped my archer
position for joe b uh two weeks ago we bought it at 952 that stock was trading almost 14 today
in a matter of two weeks stocks up like 40 percent more than 40 so yeah that's just been a monster
and joe b has been again we didn't see the catalyst coming.
When we got along on Joby, we got along from a technical standpoint.
The chart looked beautiful.
When I posted it, I actually pinned this at the top.
Let me repin it, which was our original.
By the way, is Global Payments, I know all these names are kind of similar.
They had Elliott Management just announced they took a stake in them.
So I don't know if that's going to be good for the FinTechie.
Maybe.
But I feel like they're also closer to the payment processor names.
Yeah, I grouped those all into the FinTech thematic.
I mean, they're obviously not similar businesses, like Affirm, Upstart, SoFi, Lending Club.
I'll put all of these into the FinTech basket, even though some of them aren't really FinTech.
I just kind of take a broader approach when I'm looking at these things.
But yeah, the reason I've been talking about fintech a little bit and the reason we got
long on toast today was because I have been noticing the daily charts on a lot of these
fintech names are really strong.
SoFi.
That one is fintech.
Yeah, soFi's been incredible.
I also voted in yesterday. Obviously, Robinhood,
if you want to group that into fintech, I think they are fintech to a degree. I mean,
it just depends on how loose you want to be with the term. Some people are more specific with it,
but that group's doing really well. So yeah, we picked up a starter on toast today to try to
jump into that thematic a little bit. But yeah, I mean, if you're picking the right stocks
in this environment, you will find out performance because of the way that this market is acting,
where it is rotational in between themes. I think Godfather was touching on this before,
and I agree with that completely. Having thematic exposure to the hottest themes in the market is
very important in a market like this. And especially if you're a trader. Now for investors,
you're obviously
going to want to be more focused on core positions. When I talk about names like
my core positions, which I mentioned earlier, Centris, Robinhood, Nebius, Kratos, those are
my big four really. When you look at that group, they're all in different industries. And what that allows me to do is capture thematic performance in each of those themes, whether or not they're hot at the same time.
And one thing that saved my performance, I posted my performance chart again earlier. I post it regularly, my year-to-day performance chart of my overall portfolio. But if you look at it recently,
there has been a massive ramp, not only because the market's been going up, but because
we've been having these instances where, like yesterday, Nebius was up 17%, right? That's one
of my core positions. Today, Joby, which is one of my larger positions, it's at about a 6%
weighting in my portfolio, pretty close to where my core positions are weighting-wise.
That was up 10% today. Two days before that, we had Centris Energy up 7%. So it's like days where
some of the stocks I have are consolidating for one reason or another. Either there's bad news
about the thematic out, or there's a negative catalyst out. I have other names in these different thematics that are performing.
And so like on a day like today, people who are exposed to high beta stuff today, a lot
of them got slapped.
You know, they were down four or 5% on the portfolio.
My portfolio was down 0.23% today.
Right.
So why is it able to be durable on a day where a lot of high beta names are are pulling
back because the ones that were consolidating last week or the week before are now moving to
the upside right magnite nebius indy joby asts xmtr erj amazon all green today right and those
stocks were not except for joby a lot of those stocks were not except for Joby. A lot of those stocks
were consolidating for me in the last two weeks. So I like to position myself not just in one
thematic at a time, but I like to identify two or three core thematics in the market and build
baskets around them and then manage each of those positions under each basket technically,
right? So usually using the daily chart, depending on the durability of the theme,
I might be more inclined to look at the weekly charts. But I build these name baskets, four or
five names, right? Like my nuclear basket, for example, my nuclear basket used to be much larger.
I used to have more names, right? I had BWXT,
I had MIR, I had all these other names. Now my nuclear basket is much tighter. It's just
primarily Centris Energy because that's my largest, single largest position by weighting
in my whole portfolio, LEU. But outside of Centris, I just have GSRT, which is an accumulating
positions pre-merger SPAC. That's it. So I went from four or five names in that nuclear basket to two names.
Same thing with the aerospace and defense basket I talked about earlier.
In January, February of this year, I had eight or nine names in the aerospace and defense basket.
I had names like Leonardo DRS, Standard Aero.
I had all of these other peripheral names earlier in the year.
all of these other peripheral names earlier in the year.
And then as the year progressed,
I concentrated that aerospace and defense exposure into just Kratos,
Huntington and Mercury.
And then I closed Mercury today.
So now it's just Kratos and Huntington.
And the same thing goes with my data center basket to open the year.
I had about six or seven data center names.
Now I have just two or three.
I have Nebius, Cypher, and Riot, right?
So, and Cypher and Riot are really also double as Bitcoin sympathy exposures.
But, you know, and I owned Iron two weeks ago and closed that, those options for 500%.
So what I do is I throw a lot of darts.
I'll rewind.
First, I identify two or three hot thematics that I think have catalyst rich
environments and are likely to have catalyst rich environments for months or in some cases,
in the case of the nuclear trade, for years. Once I've identified those thematic baskets,
I go and look at individual stocks in each of those themes, and I pick two
or three that I'm interested in beyond just the chart. Two or three names that I think, hey,
these guys have durability, they have optionality, they have ability to win contracts in the space,
they have ability to get tailwinds from all the thematic opportunity and capital investment in the space. So I pick two or three names. I go look at the charts. I see, okay, are the charts strong? Are
they relatively strong versus the market? Are they above all their moving averages? Are they
holding tightly? Are they presenting a nice entry? Should I wait? Maybe I'll mark a name and say,
buy on pullback or I'll mark another name and say, add the basket. And so I build these baskets over the
course of a few weeks. And then I allow the performance of the stocks to narrow the baskets.
Right. So I don't, I don't go in and say, Oh, positions up 10% taking profits. That's not how
I do it. I build the basket with five or six names, sometimes seven or eight names. And then
over the course of two or three months, the price action in those names narrows it for me. If they fail and break down, cool,
you're off the roster, right? And that's how I get to these positions of just having one or two
stocks in the themes. Like Kratos, right? Kratos was in the aerospace and defense basket in February
with eight other names. Why is Kratos now a top four position in
my portfolio? Because they won. The stock won, right? The other aerospace and defense stocks
were doing well in the front half of the year, either consolidated or broke down or whatever.
And Kratos kept performing. So I didn't cut it. I stuck with the winning position and I cut the
aerospace and defense names that weren't performing the way I wanted them to.
Exact same story with nuclear.
You know, how was I able to hold centrist energy from 96 to 220 and I'm still holding it today?
Well, it outperformed the basket.
Right.
And so the other names that got trimmed and cut along the way, either because they underperformed or because they had shorter term options that won the money or any number of circumstances led to the narrowing of those baskets. So I don't know,
I try to provide you guys insights into mechanically the way I trade and the way I
organize my portfolio. And that is one of the most important mechanics of the way I manage stocks
is this idea of allowing the winners to narrow the baskets for you. You know, in a way to me,
the way I interpret that is the market telling me which is the best name narrow the baskets for you. You know, in a way, to me, the way I interpret that
is the market telling me which is the best name in the basket.
Right?
Because sometimes I'm conflicted.
Like, I think, you know, Monitiv, who I trust very much on defense stuff,
I talked to him earlier in the year about,
I see Monitiv's still up here, yeah.
I talked to him earlier in the year about names like Standard Arrow
and Leonardo DRS, and me and him had some back and forth conversations when I was first getting along those names. But I didn't understand those names as well as I do some other names in the basket. And so my conviction level wasn't as high as a consequence of that. Right. Conviction is built on availability of information, your consumption of that information, and then your perception of that information. That's what conviction is. That's all it is.
your consumption of that information, and then your perception of that information.
That's what conviction is. That's all it is.
And so I didn't have the same level of conviction on some of those names.
And so are some of those names higher from where I sold them?
Absolutely.
But I ended up with the one that I have conviction on, which is Kratos.
And that ended up, which is now a top four waiting for me in the whole portfolio.
When I first opened it, Kratos wasn't even a top 10 position for me in the portfolio.
It was a standard size position. Right.
So I allow the winners to categorize themselves through price action as opposed to sitting around twiddling my thumbs saying, which is the best stock in this basket?
Which is the best stock in this basket?
I don't ask myself that question. I let the market tell me.
I don't ask myself that question.
I let the market tell me.
And so, yeah, that's how I think you get to the point of having a narrow enough range of names that you can continue to outperform in the market, even when you have choppy days like today.
And even like today, I can't even count the number of high beta stocks.
They're down 5%, 10%.
We came out basically unscathed.
I had one position down more than 5% today. Keep
in mind, this is in a basket of 23 stocks. One position down more than 5%. No other positions
down more than 2.5%. And 14 positions green. And everything I own is high beta relative to the
market. Everything. So I don't have any indexes, no ETFs. It's all
23 individual stocks in different sectors. I have nuclear exposure. I have data center exposure.
I have aerospace and defense exposure. I have big tech exposure with Amazon and Tesla.
I have everything that I want to be exposed to. Do I have exposure to everything? No,
I don't have exposure to quantum. I don't have exposure to Ethereum treasuries. I don't have exposure. Well, as of today, I don't have any
exposure to Bitcoin treasuries. I don't have any exposure to a bunch of hot thematics. And I'm
okay with that. I don't get FOMO from that. And I think that this is something that new traders
struggle with is this idea of like, oh my God, that stock went up like a hundred percent.
What's going to be the next one? Like, I'm not in that theme. Like, whatever am I going to do?
Like, you'll be just fine. You know, even with missing those themes, my portfolio is still
doubled year to date and there's still four or five months left in the year. So to me, I don't think that you have to capture everything to win in the market.
And I also don't think that you have to be a fearless dip buyer in the most perilous situations to capture alpha in the market.
I don't know if I got cut off from this part earlier, but I was mentioning this earlier.
I didn't buy any dips in April.
Not one.
Okay? But you can go look at my portfolio performance, which I post mentioning this earlier. I didn't buy any dips in April, not one. Okay, but you can go look at my portfolio performance,
which I post all the time.
How did that happen without buying a dip?
The answer is, is I just didn't sell my core stocks, right?
If you don't get shaken out at the lows,
you don't have to buy the dip at the lows.
You know, when I first started deploying capital again in mid-May, it was because the daily charts
had reconstructed to the point where I felt comfortable getting along again.
Stocks had emerged back above their 50-day moving averages by mid-May.
Many good stocks had recaptured their 9 and 21 daily EMAs.
good stocks had recaptured their 9 and 21 daily EMAs. Many good stocks had seen favorable
accumulative volume profiles over the course of mid-April to mid-May. And having that data in
the rear view mirror made me much more convicted to buy stocks on May 15th instead of April 15th.
Yet you have a lot of people on Twitter who are like, if you didn't catch the dip at the April lows, you're an idiot. Well, really? Because I didn't and I did doing just
fine. Right? So you don't have to catch the bottom. You don't have to be in every stock.
You don't have to like, you don't have to do any of these things. You can focus on a basket of
names that you have done the work on that you have conviction in, and with a little bit of position management finesse, you can do very well with just that.
That propensity really, I think, kills new traders.
This propensity of like, I don't have enough capital and this is running and I want to be in it and my friends are in it or my friend made 300% on BMNR yesterday and I don't have any Ethereum treasury exposure.
Like, whatever am I going to do?
And in the meanwhile, these people have no idea of like even the basics of Ethereum treasuries or even the basics of these things and they just want to get in.
and they just want to get in, right?
Right.
That's how you end up screwing yourself
by getting long on a stock
that you don't understand out of FOMO,
that you have no perception of risk on,
that you just don't understand it.
You just buy it because of FOMO.
And then it makes managing that position magnitudes harder.
You know, and that point is very undersold
on financial Twitter in general. This idea of like, how you can manage positions better from a psychological standpoint. Like, how can you better prepare yourself psychologically to be an excellent portfolio manager? And the simplest answer to that question is to build conviction. The simplest single answer, right? Because if I didn't have
conviction in Kratos, which we've talked a lot about today, I would have sold it in April. Look
how much it went down. You know, if I didn't have conviction, it just, it blew through the 921,
blew through the 50, blew through the 100 day, fell all the way into the 200 day. Like if it
was just a trade for me, there's no shot I'm holding
that. But I had tremendous amount of conviction. So I didn't sell it. Right. And post earnings,
I actually bought more of it. I increased my position size by 10% post earnings. I posted
that for our members too. And a lot of people were like, are you sure, dude, it's big red today
after earnings. Like, are you sure you want to buy the buy the dip? I was like, yeah, I love the company and I know that I have conviction in it. And the same thing goes for
everything else. If I have conviction, I'm willing to manage the position more liberally.
And a lot of times that's what saves you during market corrections because you don't get scared
out from what would otherwise be considered a technical breakdown.
And I don't want to say to people that I never sell stuff. I obviously do. And I get shaken out
of stuff all the time. I mentioned earlier, SMLR, the Bitcoin treasury plan, I got shaken out of
it this morning. It might skyrocket tomorrow. I don't care. When it comes to trading positions,
I have strict risk protocols. When it comes to trading positions, when it comes to core positions, I have strict risk protocols when it comes to trading positions.
When it comes to core positions, I do not have those same risk protocols.
If I buy a stock, for example, let's use Toast as an example because I bought that today.
So Toast wasn't a perfect entry today.
It actually had some air off the 9 EMA.
It actually came back down into the close.
So I didn't get a perfect entry today, but I knew that. And I said in my journal, I said, okay, 21 EMA is a stop.
If I buy that stock today and next week it goes below the 21 EMA, I'm going to sell it.
Does that mean that it's never going to go up again? No, it might skyrocket on the earnings.
It might skyrocket the day after I sell it. None of that matters, though, because with positions I have less conviction in,
which are trading positions, I trade them.
And if my risk protocols are violated, they're cut.
And if they're not, great, it's a win.
But it's that simple.
With the core positions, no.
If Kratos falls below the 21 EMA, I'm not selling it. Even ifratos falls below the 21 EMA, I'm not selling it.
Even if it falls below the 50-day, I'm not selling it. Same thing goes for Nebius. Same thing goes
for Centris Energy. Same thing goes for Robinhood. I'm not selling those stocks. I don't care if
they go down 10%, 20%, 30%. I'm not selling, period. So having that level of conviction in
two or three or maybe four or maybe even five stocks that you want to own, not because the price is high, not because the chart looks good, but because you have genuine conviction that those stocks will be worth more in five or 10 years from now, you don't sell those stocks, period.
You don't sell it.
No matter how bad the market correction is, you don't sell those stocks. Otherwise you'll be the guy that just gets in and out of the market constantly and never has
long-term stocks and never builds real wealth. That's the hard truth. If you're an, if you're
an I'm all cash at the end of every correction guy, you're never going to have stalwart stocks
that win for you for decades. You're never going to, you're never going to get there
because you're going to
constantly be shaken out. Oh, it fell below the 50th. I can't invest in the stock anymore.
That's a stupid mentality. It's frankly stupid mentality. So yeah, I'm not saying you shouldn't
take profits. You should take profits on your trades, but you should also learn to distinguish
between what is just a trade and what is a stock that you really do genuinely for
the right reasons want to own for the long term. And once you make that distinction, you'll be a
better portfolio manager, you'll do better, you'll outperform the market more consistently,
you'll be more comfortable on pullback days, all of those amazing things will be much more
achievable for you. If you learn to differentiate your conviction level between
stocks. I guarantee you just that step alone will change your trading. Try it. If you're somebody
out there who never thinks about that, try it. And if you want to know a simple way to try it,
here's a very simple way to try it. From now on, every time you take a position,
whether it's an investing position, a trading position, a day trading position, a swing trading position, whatever it is, you rank it by conviction.
You're going to suck at this at first. At first, you're not going to really have a semblance of
what your conviction level even is if you're a new trader. But over time, you will get really good
at looking at a setup or looking at a stock and saying, yeah, I like it, but I don't love it.
Or I love it.
Or no, I don't like it.
You will eventually get instinctive enough to just be able to pull up a chart, hear what the company does, and make that decision instantaneously.
Once you get to that point, that's when you know, not that you've made it, but that's when you know your experience.
made it, but that's when you know your experience. And that's when you know you're at the position
where you can start, you know, maybe taking steps to be a little bit more sophisticated in the way
you manage your stocks. But until you're there, try it. Try ranking every single solitary trade
investment, every position you open, rank it by conviction level, see how it turns out and continue
to do that for months. And eventually you'll realize I'm allocating more capital to the stocks I have more conviction in.
I'm also staying in those stocks for longer.
And I also have a higher risk tolerance on those stocks.
Once you make those three realizations around high conviction positions, you will just do way better in the market period.
high conviction positions, you will just do way better in the market, period.
And I think a lot of people take time to learn that because we live on a Twitter world where
everyone is super concerned with instant gratification, taking immediate profits.
You know, I made 30% overnight.
I'm a killer.
Everyone's so concerned with that that they forget that, you know, the best way to win in the markets is to compound long term with stocks that will continually win for you over multi year periods.
That's how you make real money, not like the fun money like, hey, you know, I sports gambled this week in the market and paid for a steak dinner.
the market and paid for a steak dinner. That's fun too. And that's cool too. And if you do that,
That's fun, too. And that's cool, too.
great. But if you really want to make money and look back decades later and be like, holy shit,
I have a $19 cost basis on Robinhood or holy shit, I have a $20 cost basis on Kratos. If you want to
make those statements and look back and say, wow, I really made a good decision and planted a seed
that's going to pay me for years and years and years.
Once that clicks in your
brain, it will transform the way you think
about trading and investing. By the way, we got another
Bezos sale. This one was a little larger.
Six million shares. Let him keep
selling, dude. I don't know what he wants to buy, but he wants to buy
something. Unless he's
just paying for his wedding still.
We'll see. I'm sorry.
This one was a little larger.
Ooh, there was one I missed.
Is this a new one?
Yeah, one just now.
Actually, I did not miss the last one.
One just now.
This one was larger than the last couple, actually.
I'll get you a little bit more of the data in a second.
Bring it back down to the 190s on a market correction.
I'll add some leaps.
Let's go.
Let's play ball.
He sold at 224.50, 225, 225, 226.
Average cost here is probably going to be like 225 or something.
Give him the Celtics.
And I'll tell you exactly how much he has left in a second or two.
What other NBA teams are available for sale?
I mean, with enough money, is it anything for sale?
Hopefully the Mavs,
though, you said that.
Hopefully we got LeBron to the Mavs,
dude. I heard about that rumor.
LeBron to the Mavs.
Bezos to own it and LeBron to come play.
Bezos to own it would be
so sick, dude.
That would be awesome if Bezos brought the Mavs.
Oh, man.
I think that ship has sailed, though, no?
You just found the new owner.
Yeah, we did.
It's okay.
It's okay.
The Adelsons will hopefully fire Nico.
It's actually pretty rigged that you guys got Cooper flag, actually.
Oh, my God.
We're going to go back over this.
It's not rigged, dude.
We deserved it after what happened to us.
Okay, so your argument is that you deserved it to be rigged in your favor, is what you were saying.
No, we deserved it after what happened to Luka.
So you deserve to rig it?
He just sold $1.5 billion.
And then how much would he have left?
Let's give you that.
$1.5 billion. then how much would he have left? Let's give you that.
Five.
Six million.
You can continue on,
and I'll just spit out the number in a second.
I guess we're maybe all committed here.
He's actually more than halfway through now.
Well,
until,
until his next one.
Jeff Bezos is 54% of the way through his sale.
Wow.
Very nice.
Yeah. I mean,
I pretty much covered everything though.
You know,
Joby,
well,
Indy,
nice day,
pretty flat day. Where did it close? Did it close at over four? Oh, Indy. Yeah, I mean, I pretty much covered everything, though. You know, Joby, Val, Indy, nice day, pretty flat day. Where did it close?
Did it close at over four?
Oh, Indy?
Yeah, it did.
It closed right at four.
Actually, four on the penny, which is nice.
Can I ask you about – I want to ask you about Toastin.
Was Shift 4 in there at all?
I've been watching.
I was looking at four.
Obviously, Jared Isaacman.
I actually really like the four chart, Evan,
if that's one you're thinking about. I actually really like the daily chart, Evan, if that's one you're thinking about.
I actually really like the daily.
Only thing that concerns me on four is there's not really the level of volume
profile I like to see prior to entry.
I would like to see a little bit more accumulation,
although net net since May, you would still count this as accumulation.
All the high volume bars are green.
The only thing with four that's sort of like tricky to me is just like the whole
jared isegman you know came back was going to go to nasa administrator then came back and like
i don't know i just think you sort that out but i love four as a name and i do think it's
undervalued relative is he officially back i guess so i don't know i haven't kept track i i thought
that was a good thing yeah that is a good. I'm not saying it's a bad thing.
I'm just saying like there's been a lot of investor confusion around the stock because of that whole, you know, he was gone.
Now he's back.
But I think right now, speaking of, I mean, I'm glad you brought this up because it's actually a beautiful daily chart, but it looks fantastic.
This thing's probably going to go back to 110 pretty quickly.
It's 102 right now.
It's like an 8% move. And then 117 clearance probably gives you all-time highs again so yeah it looks
fantastic and to be honest the reason i said i'd looked at it already was i was going through a lot
of fintech names today that's how i can't stumbled upon toast but i was going through my whole FinTech list today. Let me go pull it up here. Hold on.
Where is it? Oh, here it is. And so I have 28 names on my FinTech list. Um, and I was going
through the charts today, the daily charts. Uh, I didn't get time to go through all the timeframes.
I just peeked at the dailies today. And, uh, I like how a lot of them look like i was also looking at shopify
and i like how that one's building too you know you had this violent collision of the 50 day and
the 200 day uh mid-may on this name and the 50 day just like bounced right off of it like it was
very very um interesting action and since then's consolidated, not even really in the same range
because it popped up to 112, fell back to the hundreds and it had maybe like a two or three
week consolidation in that range. And now it's at the upper part of the range in this 115 to 118
area. And it looks strong. So Shopify looks great too. You know, a lot of these fintech names look great.
I was looking at Okta today, too.
That one, not as nice as the others because it's below the 200-day, 921 sloping down.
But if there's a catalyst at any point here soon and this reverses, then that could be interesting.
But the big red flag for me that kept me away of that one was there's two huge cell candles, cell volume candles on
Okta late June and early May. And so that kept me away from that one. But I was just flipping
through these and just like, like a lot of them. PayPal was when I looked through, I think PayPal
looks pretty interesting. I would like price to be sitting above that 921, but 50 is sloping up
and price is tucked under the 200 day.
You get a collision, uh, start of July where we hit that 77, 36 spot and got rejected.
I think it'll probably make another test at that 200 day pretty soon here. Um,
upstart, you know, that chart looks fantastic. Affirm, that chart looks pretty good. Had a stick save the last two sessions to push back above the 21 EMA.
Doesn't look as good as Upstart, but still looks good.
I mean, a lot of these. I could just keep going.
I mean, there's 28 names on this list.
Pagaya, PGY. I don't know if people have been following that one.
But Monster off the lows.
I mean, it was $10 start of May.
It's 23 now.
So it's more than doubled.
Right? I mean, I could keep going, but there's 28 names on this list.
But a lot of them look good.
And so, you know, when I think about thematic opportunity, like anything, all the stuff I brought up earlier, nuclear, data centers, aerospace and defense, those are the big three for me in my portfolio.
Nuclear, data centers, aerospace and defense. Those are the big three for me in my portfolio, nuclear, data centers, aerospace and defense. But outside of those themes, there's been a lot of other themes that
have traded this year, been involved in either peripherally or for a few weeks or for a few
months that have helped accelerate my performance. And when I'm trying to identify a theme,
you know, a lot of people hear me talk about how I'm a catalyst trader and a theme trader.
The reason I describe myself as that is because the catalyst and the theme are at the output of
the trade for me like those are the reason to get involved right those are the first thing I look at
I look at the catalyst and the theme before the chart and be mindful I always look at the chart
I never buy something without looking at the chart. I think it's hugely important for entries. For all you purely fundamental people out there, I think it's hugely important.
But anyway, I always look at the chart, but I don't look at the chart first,
because that clouds my judgment on identifying the theme and the catalyst. I don't want to look
at a chart and say it's a good chart, and then work backwards in terms of confirmation bias to try to justify my purchase of the stock.
I don't like to do that. What I prefer to do is to say, okay, here's a potential theme.
How do I determine if it's a quality theme? Well, the short answer to that is experience.
But over time, you'll have attributes about thematic opportunities that you look for,
things that make it durable right
what i like to look for one of the main things i look to look for is the propensity of government
support so either direct fiscal dollars being injected into the space or direct policy support
in the way of that you Did you see the MP materials?
Not only did we have the Apple headline this morning,
there was a headline,
a defense minister was talking to CNBC
saying that this could be a framework they use
to go to other mining companies and try and rebuild it out.
Yep, yep, yep.
The MP material deal was huge.
Massive deal.
Stock jumped like 60% on the deal and then jumped again today.
And all of the rare earth plays behind that have been rallying but yes to your point evan that rare
earth minerals theme is absolutely a durable theme you know about a week ago on twitter i didn't catch
my entry on this one unfortunately but it's absolutely ripped but a week realistically i'm
sorry to cut you off here i was sitting here on the spaces asking you the question of china is trying to use these magnet things as leverage we know rare earths is kind of
like uh maybe not the best way to actually think about all this stuff you just have to mine it we
don't want to mine it or haven't wanted to mine it um yeah this should have been the natural
conclusion on a trade of of what we talked about but here we are talking about after
here i know no we talked about it a lot i know you did we've talked yeah exactly that was a me comment none of you no no i mean i'm just saying
we did cover this although watch out some of these some of these trades i've been doing recently
your whole server might be coming to my private one in a couple years all right i've been killing
it i like it um but yeah rare metals is a perfect example of what i was talking about where
it had it's a durable theme because it has government support not only in terms of direct
fiscal dollars but direct policy support legislative support okay another example of this is nuclear
okay nuclear has direct policy support it's not just the executive order it's the department of
energy who is actively moving to support these companies to support the deployment of
small modular reactors what do you think of coal yeah support registry yeah coal is i mean coal
isn't as sexy quote from the uh the press conference that he just had president trump says
quote i say you're not allowed to call it coal you have to call it clean beautiful coal uh that is
the direct quote there you go so yeah he also shat on wind over
solar i don't i wonder if there's some some comments there i haven't heard a little less
of the the shitting on solar yeah i mean i don't know i haven't been particularly interested in
solar i traded bloom energy on the fuel cell category a few weeks ago that one did beautifully
for us but i haven't really looked at solar. But yeah, look, nuclear is an example of this.
Rare earth metals are an example of this. And when you find a theme like this, where
you like the technology, you think there are secular tailwinds in terms of societal adoption,
and you also think there are direct government injection, injective support in the way of
fiscal policy or legislation. When you have
those three check marks mocked, the likelihood that it is a durable theme is significantly higher.
Okay. Significantly, like by magnitudes. And so once you've identified a durable theme,
then you say, okay, how do I get exposure to the theme? And that therein lies the rub. That is the whole game. That's what differentiates my stock picking from somebody else's stock picking from your stock picking from somebody else on the panel stopping. That's what differentiates it is your ability to identify the right names to get exposure to that theme. And that's the hard part.
That's the part where your technical experience comes in. That's the part where your previous
trading experience comes in, your previous investing experience comes in, your knowledge
about the industries comes in, right? I'm a guy who used to be in medical school. I have no
formal education experience in nuclear. I have no formal education experience in nuclear. I have no
formal education experience in rare metals. I have no formal education experience in data centers
at all. Yet, I would venture to bet that I am much more informed in those categories than the
average person. Why? Because I just read about them in order to get exposure.
You know, for weeks or months, right?
By the way, I got a really cool
connection. Do you want to go to
a data center? I genuinely think I
get us in a data center now. Yes, let's go.
I'll go with you.
I would love to do that.
There's a Microsoft one down here
in Mexico. If you guys want to come down, I'll probably
get the hook up too.
I'm down.
I'm flying in for that one as well.
Yeah, I mean, I'm absolutely down to both of those things.
But, yeah, like, guys, again, the beautiful thing about the stock market is that by way of becoming an investor,
you have a chance to become a
really overall knowledgeable person as well you know and that's not just like a
bonus that comes with this that helps you make money you know I was gonna
tweet this later and I'm still gonna tweet it later but you see a lot of
people on Twitter that say two things. There's two camps on Twitter.
There's one camp of the technical guys who say everything is in the chart.
Then there's another camp of the fundamental guys who say everything is on the balance sheet.
You all know what?
They're both wrong.
They're both wrong.
Excellent stock picking comes from context.
Can you pick a great stock using just the chart and do very well?
Yes. Can you pick a great stock by just looking at the balance sheet and do very well? Yes. I'm not saying you can't win by doing that. But if you want to consistently pick the very best stock
in multiple themes, which I'm not self-boasting here, but I have done in the last
year with Robinhood, Nebius and Centris Energy, which are my three biggest positions in the three
biggest themes in the market. If you want to pick those types of stocks, the absolute best in the
sector over and over again repeatedly, it's not just about one or the other. You're not going to get
there by just looking at the charts or doing a FinVis scan or just looking at the balance sheets.
You're just not going to get there. You're going to get there through context. Is the theme right?
Is the catalyst right? Is the chart right? Is the balance sheet right? Is there earnings power
potential here? Can this stock actually make more money as a result of what is going on? The answers to all those are yes, you've picked a
great stock. But yeah, this game is simple, but it's not easy. And over time, you'll get
experience. You'll learn these things. You'll learn the in and outs. You'll learn the attributes
that build conviction, the attributes that harm conviction.
And once you're down in the bottom of figuring all this out and reading and learning and
going through charts, you will get to a point of experience where everything just clicks.
And once you're in that space, you kind of feel invincible.
And the market will humble you along the way.
The market has humbled me many times, my friends.
I know I do very well and I share my performance.
I've taken plenty of losses in my career, too.
I still do.
You know, I just took a loss today on SMLR.
I just talked about earlier.
There's losses, too, right?
But what matters is how does your overall portfolio perform?
How do your overall stock picks perform relative to the market if
they do well you'll do well so yeah there you go that's my rant for today even though i wasn't even
supposed to do any rants this week but there you go there's my extra long rant for today yeah we
actually we had a ban and we had an intervention i was suppressed from rants but i was yeah i was
thinking this was going to be a little bit of a less ranty week for me. But there you go.
Go back and listen to it if you've found any of that to be something you want to take into account.
You know, one of the things we also talk about is you don't always have to be trading.
Where if you would have seen, like, you know, you're talking about buying the bottoms and stuff.
Like, if you would have just traded aggressively in this last month when we were going up.
Maybe I guess before this last week or we were going up maybe i guess before this
last week or two and it's just kind of new hey cool off like these moves just with rolling and
doing some stuff on these swing trades like even just like google playing that one getting back up
like it's been hot for these last two three months and you know that was probably a year for a lot of
people and now they're gonna spend a chop two three months where they should
just be doing nothing net losing money spending a lot of time and uh yeah when they could have
spent that money they lost and a nice nice vacation around the europe or something yeah
over trading is a cancer you know most days i do nothing guys nothing most days i do absolutely
nothing you know the people in my community can attest to
this. I pick stocks, I ride them. If they don't work, I cut them. That's it. That's like it.
You know, there's no like every day I'm like in and out of something or like, no, I just buy good
stocks that I think have staying power and I stay in them. That's it.
That's like the,
if you don't know the big secret to my performance this year and last year,
that's the secret.
That's the secret.
I just buy good stocks and hold them.
I don't overtrade.
I don't take 50 trades a week.
I don't know.
50 trades a week is crazy.
I don't even take three trades a week,
four trades a week.
I take a couple trades a month,
really targeted,
focused trades on the right stocks with the right entries,
and I wait.
That's it.
Patience pays.
I see we got
Kevin down below. I'd love to get you up
here. Here's some of your thoughts, Kevin, if we
got you. I feel like it's been a little.
But, Gary, I don't know if you have any thoughts you want to add to the conversation.
Hey, I always thought Stock Talk traded much more,
so it's good to hear that the buy and hold is kind of winning.
My portfolio, by the way, it was green today,
but I usually call in on apple green days but i just
got back from yeah what the what the hell was that last candle is my question i know
and listen apple is a 260 stock i mean honest to god if you had the staying power to do it
i think anything under 200 is a screaming buy and that's typically the way that I trade is, you know, I think I was laughed on
at one of these spaces
when I said that NVIDIA would hit 160
by the end of the year
and I was buying at 140.
And somebody said,
I don't know who it was,
but they were laughing at me.
And then I got Stock Talk,
your actual people that are subscribed to you
are vicious and nasty. Oh my God. I had to turn off the app for one of my, one of my tweets about,
you know, somebody was saying that I, you know, I didn't know what I was talking about. It was
on the rant where I said that senators didn't know how to program a Roku device. And the guy just went in, you're stupid, you're unintelligent,
blah, blah, blah. Thank God we have people like Soskos. And listen, I'm there for your education.
I love it. Well, I'm sorry about that. I can't monitor every member in our group. We have a lot,
but whoever that was, bad boy. Don't say
that. Don't be mean. As I say, fuck them all the time. I mean, seriously. But yeah, I mean,
my style of trading is different than stock talks. I think it's different than most people,
like Meta. I said Meta is a screaming buy under $500. I didn't try and time it. It was on my list. If you've got a watch list
of five stocks that are quality stocks, that you just, if they pull back 5% or 10%, whatever you
decide, and there's no questions asked. And that's the market that we're in right now. If a stock on
my watch list, Nebius is one. I've been waiting to get into that one. I haven't found the chance.
I was on vacation. And unfortunately, I just haven't had the chance to buy it.
Robinhood, same thing. Palantir, same thing. I just loaded into Grok AI, the founder of Motley Fool, which, listen, Motley Fool is what it is.
I don't count this guy as some genius, but he's got six rules to buying great stocks, and he's done a great job.
some genius, but he's got six rules to buying great stocks. And he's done a great job. I loaded
all of his prerequisites into Grok. And I said, can you find me stocks today that pony up for
this? It found two. It found Palantir and Rivian. And those were the two. And I think
honorable mention went to Unity Software. But that's the stuff that we have today.
With AI, you're crazy if you're not using AI to
try and sift through thousands and thousands of stock to buy it. But the one thing I will tell
you, Stock Talk, is that where you and I are different, I do promote buy and hold for the
large part. But I will take trades on a daily basis just to kind of scalp some just on a chart.
And that's to keep me sharp on the technicals because you hit it right on the head.
If you're not trading both today, I mean, there were days back in the late 90s.
I didn't have a stock chart.
I didn't have all of the tools that we have today.
So I think you've got to learn how to trade.
You'll make mistakes.
Understand you're not going to win everything.
But when somebody tells you that a stock and they have a proven track record,
don't call them stupid and be kind on Twitter.
That's all I have to say.
Oh, I agree.
I agree.
Nobody should be calling anybody stupid.
But yeah.
I told them.
I started the
hashtag die poor because that douche can die poor i don't know who it is you're referring to but we
have thousands of members so um i can't monitor them i can't monitor them all unfortunately but
it was one of those with like 10 followers oh yeah i mean yeah i don't know i don't know who it is
i don't know if it was in your community.
I think it was just one of your followers. Oh, okay.
I thought you were talking about somebody in our community. No, no, no, no, no.
If one of your community members, I would absolutely call you out on that one.
It was one of those blind Twitter folks that, you know,
at you with like 10 followers and tells you that you're stupid. You know,
somebody you really pay attention to. Yeah. I don't, I don't,
you just should ignore those people, but I don't worry about those
people. There's a lot of them. Um, you know, yeah, my, um, 2025 performance and 2024 performance
above for those that want to check it out. I have the full performance graph posted,
direct screenshot for my brokerage. You can run it through whatever Photoshop software you want
for the doubters out there. Um, but yeah, just direct screenshots for my brokersage. You can run it through whatever Photoshop software you want for the doubters out there. Yeah, just direct screenshots from my brokerage that I take regularly and just share
with you guys how I'm doing. Because I think, you know, a lot of us get up here and talk about
what's the right thing to do, what's the wrong thing to do, what you should be doing. And I think
anybody who's saying that kind of stuff, they should probably tell you how they're doing too.
And I'm really really really vehement on
that like i i was arguing with people that i'm friends with today telling them to share their
performance because i don't care i mean i don't yeah am i gonna have people on this platform
other influencers who you know uh aren't as keen to network with me as a result of me saying that
yeah but i'm okay with that.
I think it's bullshit when people have Excel spreadsheets
tracking their performance.
Who are we fucking kidding?
Take a screenshot of your brokerage and post it.
Everyone has a personal brokerage account they're trading and investing on.
Take a screenshot.
You don't have to show anybody how much money you have.
You don't have to show your net worth.
Just show how you're doing on a percentage basis. Your day you're gonna preach if you're not gonna preach yeah who cares
you don't have to share anything but if you're gonna get up every day and talk on twitter like
you're a big man and you know like preach like everyone on on on fin to it does then come on
you know be a grown-up share your performance with the people if you're gonna do that if you're not
gonna do that and you're just somebody that's, you know,
on Twitter to provide information and, you know,
you don't talk about your personal trades, then that's great.
But if you are, you should share your performance.
And all of you out there who are following these people,
you should hold them accountable to that.
You know, get in their comments, tag them, tell them to share.
I think that that's what everyone on this platform do.
If we want to improve the accountability on Twitter,
improve the quality of information, improve, um,
or I should say decrease the level of arrogance.
That's what we need to do as a community on FinTwit is hold people
accountable and tell them, Hey, show me how you're doing.
You know, show me how you're doing if you're going to tell me all this stuff.
And so all of you should expect that from the people you follow.
You should expect that from me.
You should expect that from all the people you follow, all the influencers you follow.
So, yeah, hold those people accountable.
But, yeah, I posted mine above for those that are interested.
Go check it out.
And, yeah, we'll, you you know we'll keep on keeping on keep on sharing those picks and keep on sharing those stocks that we've been talking about um as they come
by the way i uh i don't talk about my stuff or anything really i mean i'm the news guy but i do
make you do share your performance yeah pinned up in the news even though you're a news guy right
look at that well i think it's valuable from the news perspective.
I know, Amp.
Yes, you're there too, brother.
I wouldn't be calling you both out with you guys right here on top.
Hey, that would be...
Hey, two rands in one day.
I like it.
Yeah.
No, yes.
No, shout out to that.
Check that tweet out.
I don't sell it.
I'm not...
You probably shouldn't follow my stuff, but...
I also use my portfolio as my watch list.
That's why there's like a hundred names in there.
but there's a concentration at the top.
You'll see.
I saw Kevin join us though.
Green KG.
Yeah,
what's going on?
Yeah,
I do hear.
I saw you chilling in some other spaces today.
So I was like,
if Kevin doesn't join us,
I might take that person.
Yeah.
Don't take it personal.
I'm on like vacation for the next month, so I'm just kind of chilling.
Where you at?
Fishing?
No, I'm just at home right now.
My son's kind of finishing up his summer camps.
He still has football and baseball and stuff like that.
But I think next week I'm going to take the fam up to Yellowstone
and go see that old faithful and just chill. But I've just been chilling
the first week. I've just been relaxed.
I've played so much Call of Duty
and DMZ.
My son and I play all the time.
Have you played this new rematch game at all?
No, I've just been literally playing
DMZ in a hardcore team deathmatch
Call of Duty.
Black Ops?
Black Ops 6, and then we still play DMZ.
I've just been chilling, though.
That's why I haven't been on the spaces.
Everything's good.
I wanted to jump up.
It seemed like a fun conversation.
What's your KD ratio?
Kevin, kick out.
I would have to see.
I would have to see. Come on. Oh, no.
I would have to actually look.
But, I mean, if you're talking about hardcore.
Let's hope we're positive.
If you're doing home.
Oh, yeah, yeah.
If you're talking about a hardcore team death match.
I mean, like anybody.
Post the screenshot of the KD.
I'm just kidding.
Yeah.
I will post it.
I will post it.
But on hardcore team death match, I'm post it. I will post it. But on Hardcore Team Deathmatch, I'm pretty decent.
DMZ is a little bit different now, right?
Because they don't update it.
So it's a little bit, you know, the bots are a little bit harder.
And then there's people that are exploiting glitches all day.
But it's still a fun game.
What are your thoughts on all the macro stuff, all the tariff stuff,
Indonesia deal we got today, oil markets markets any of that good stuff that you're
knowledgeable on yeah Kevin I saw that Indonesia deal I saw Boeing I was like
guys we're getting the fuck ton of headlines over the next days we're still
on a lot of Boeing jets that's one of his favorite ones right now so I bought
some calls it worked for a second and then it didn't yeah I mean today was a
tough day right today was a tough day right today
was a tough day um yeah i think we only had what 48 stocks in the s&p 500 up uh so far pretty much
every sector outside information technology was down obviously semiconductors moving a little bit
higher i think the market's still discounting uh the tariff risk right we know what the numbers are
the weighted average depending on who you
follow, I believe the weighted average is sitting at around like 18 and a half percent, 19%, which
is well above what we were talking about when this whole thing kicked off at like even a 10%,
we were like, okay, like it could be manageable, but that's still going to be some headwinds here.
So we're at the upper end of that range. I think the market's still discounting it. I think the taco trade, if you will, is still being put into place. And we'll see as we get closer and
closer what's going to be the impact. I think over the last couple of days, even now, I think
volatility is actually very cheap. This is not a recommendation because I'm kind of getting lit up
on this stuff, but volatility, given the environment that
we have right now is still relatively cheap in my opinion. So if you look at the options
on VIX or just vol itself, once again, not a recommendation, but if you go and look at like
the 14 or even $13 calls on VIX, let's say you go a month out, you got to understand that those,
you know, if you go two months out on the VIX options,'s say you go a month out, you got to understand that those, you know, if you go two
months out on the VIX options, those are being priced on VIX futures two months out. It's not
being priced on spot VIX. It's very unique how VIX options actually work. But even if you kind
of go out in time, volatility is still relatively cheap. So not a recommendation, but the likelihood
of us getting to a 14 and staying out of a 14 VIX right
now, I think is something that's a low probability, right? So like if you could go out and buy vol
a little bit deeper in the money and just let that gyrate, right? Tomorrow's expiration was
actually a very good example. If you went back last week and you looked at the, what was it, the $14 expiration, they were trading for about $2.80, which is still pretty decent, but you don't have the exercisable risk. So premiums
actually still stay relatively tight and trade more at intrinsic rather than excessive time
value on there, just because of how options work. So you can even look at, you know, VIX calls,
if you were concerned that maybe the market would pull back, because we kind of have been trading
at the lower end of that range. And it's easier for the VIX to re-rate higher than it is to re-rate from
a 16 and a half to say a 14 and a half. So that's one of the things that I've been kind of like
looking at. I still think volatility is actually really cheap given the events that are potentially
on the horizon. Could you say, yeah, the market's okay with this tariff policy right now?
I don't think that's the case.
Once again, I think the market thinks that we will see a push down the road, another
extension or what have you.
I don't think that's going to be the case this time.
I hope his economic advisors are telling him that's probably not the best because he's
going to just utilize all this political capital. So I think the market's a little bit discounted that when you're looking at CPI,
talking about over the last month, right? But the CPI was going to re-rate higher.
And a lot of that, because depending on, you know, stock talk, you kind of been,
you've been hitting at a lot of people these days 24 hours and talking about people, and I'm just giving you crap, right?
But depending on who you follow when it comes to Twitter, some people are saying, hey, look at this re-rating higher month over month on headline.
It's going in higher because of terror.
That's not actually the case.
There's a couple of things that are actually taking place right now.
Shelter component is actually a pretty decent deflator in this print that we saw today,
but you did see maybe some pricing pressures, especially somewhat on the energy front,
somewhat on the food component portion that is actually still staying elevated and actually
services X shelter is actually re-rating higher. I think it's sitting at around 3.15% or whatever
when it comes to inflation. I'm not saying inflation is going to be the boogeyman here,
but I don't think that we've seen nowhere near the impacts of tariff policy on prices yet.
A lot of people have been saying, look, we have tariffs right now, no inflation,
but the majority of the tariffs are not even put into place, right?
They're delayed.
So I think that you still have to kind of wait for that.
That being the case, you know, a July cut ain't going to happen.
It would be very hard for the Fed to cut in July, given the fact that you're going to
have a re-rating and inflation to the upside in the same print that's being reported for
the month.
So I think September is definitely a lot more likely for that to happen.
I think the market's pricing that in 30 year treasury yield above 5%.
I don't know if that's where it closed at today, but you know, keep your eye out on that level.
We start seeing that kind of blow out a little bit more.
Then you start looking at twos, 10 spreads.
You start looking at three month tens, start seeing the spreads actually blow out themselves. Do we have kind of, as we get
closer and closer to this August 1st deadline, do we start having that kind of domino effect
happening again? I think yields are actually re-rating higher because of the inflationary
picture and tariff picture rather than commentary around Powell stepping down. I know that that was
a narrative about three or four weeks ago. I don't think that's really the case. If Powell did step
down, I think the yields would re-rate really aggressively higher because that would set up
really bad precedent. So that's kind of where I'm at with that. Crude oil, we'll get the numbers
tomorrow, but it is actually holding steady. The one thing that I did kind of note yesterday,
and I'm still kind of scratching my head on it,
and I'll look at some of the individual components,
but we never really saw the full impact of oil kind of re-rating from $57, $58 up to $68.
Gasoline, the same.
In May, we had around a 7% to 9% adjustment in prices for fuel oil and gasoline,
depending on the regions
that you look for, but they're really never translated into CPI. I'm kind of scratching my
head on that a little bit. I'm not saying I'm skeptical of the numbers that are being reported,
but I found it a little tad bit odd that we still haven't really seen that full re-rating,
because if you kind of look at it, we took all of the geopolitical risk premium out, but you are starting to see a pretty decent support level sitting at around 65 to say
$68 here. And now we're getting into the heart meat and potatoes of driving season. So we'll see
how that kind of goes. I had Oxy on the radar today, Occidental Petroleum and just energy
companies as a whole. But Oxy, if you look at a monthly chart, it looks like an interesting setup on the monthly and even on the weekly chart.
That being said, it's down 5% today and the volume was very aggressive and it was systematic selling
on specific time intervals. So I've kind of been keeping that on the radar. Very aggressive selling,
a lot of volume here today.
Once again, it looks more like a VWAP type of trade. It seems like somebody's liquidating out
of an oxy position right now. If you go out in time, you go out two months or so, options are
still relatively cheap. I would say options are relatively cheap for, let's say, 95% of the stocks
that are out there. You still have the thematic names that
are moving very aggressively. The MP materials, talked about that a couple of months ago.
That's still doing a phenomenal, I think that's a little bit overdone when you're looking at the
valuation of that company now. It looks like it's a little bit overdone. CCJ, once again,
phenomenal run when you're looking
at uranium. But if you're looking at options flow today, off the top of my head, if I'm not mistaken,
somebody picked up the $60 puts, 11,500 contracts off the top. It was 11,000 contracts or 7,000
contracts. It was a lot, $690,000 of the premium that somebody got out for what, middle
of August? I think it's the August monthlies. That's something that kind of caught my attention
as well. If we do see this kind of consolidation or this pullback, I would expect maybe some of
these thematic names that have done a phenomenal job actually to kind of consolidate, pullback
here, retest like an Oaklow type of move, come back, consolidate, retest before trying to move higher. So that's where I'm at with that.
Overall, you know, July performance usually for the equity market is pretty decent,
but it's front half loaded. Back half is where it gets tough. August also gets tough.
So are we at that consolidation breakdown phase right now? I don't know.
But I don't really like sitting in this consolidation range for the last two weeks or so in the S&P 500.
Yeah, that's kind of what I got. Once again, I'm on vacay, so I don't have any other major insights or anything like that.
Just kind of keeping it top level for now.
I think, oh, copper, once again, like a metal that's been
doing a phenomenal job, not trying to be a contrarian, but probably a little bit overdone
as well. It's a weird trade because you're going to tariff copper imports from Canada
and some other places. And we import 60% of the copper and then trying to spin up mines here and smelting operations
is going to take a little bit of time.
So I think the initial push to the upside was justified.
But if you kind of think about it over the long term, what is it?
A 50% tariff on copper most likely will degrade demand and you start pricing out projects
that have been in the works, right?
So what is it, 20% or 50% tariff on steel, copper, you're talking about pretty much almost
every LNG, new LNG facility right now just got 50% more expensive.
You're looking at the internal components.
So that probably would deter a lot of those projects getting underway.
Even if you're looking at fabs themselves being on short here in the United States,
if you think that we're going to build out more, you also have to kind of keep that cost in mind.
So I think the tariffs right now will have a one-time price increase outside of maybe autos,
which I think autos will have residual effects when it comes to auto insurance, housing as well.
Housing insurance will go up a little bit more aggressively year over year as prices
for homes go higher, at least the import costs and housing market right now is kind of level off.
So I think right now the copper move, once again, kind of justified, but I would not
be surprised if this is kind of the last wave of copper moving higher. I would not be surprised if you see it hit maybe $6, 6.10 before you see a pretty massive
re-rating back down.
And copper does that.
If you pull up a 20-year chart of copper, it's one of the only commodities out there
that actually tripled tops before breaking its cycle.
I mean, when I say breaking its cycle, meaning going back to a distribution
accumulation phase. So a lot there, but I'll kick it back. Those are kind of the thoughts that I got.
I appreciate you, Kevin.
I'm glad you brought up the tariff threat thing because I agree with you. And I'm sure you
remember back on the space in February was probably the first time you heard me bearish in a long time um and that's
part of why i didn't buy the april dip we were talking about that earlier like people you know
i was like hey i'm doing great this year and i didn't buy the april dip i didn't buy it at all
i kind of wish i did obviously some of my core names that i'm going to hold for 10 years i wish
i did i just was i was really worried about the tariff thing because at, in February, for those that remember, and I know a lot of our
listeners are daily listeners in February, we were talking about 50% tariffs on not just Canada and
Mexico, but on the EU, on China. Like we were talking about an implosion, like, like somebody
took a bomb and threw it at global trade. That's what we were talking about an implosion like like somebody took a bomb and threw it at global trade
that's what we were talking about in february and obviously we have taco'd to find out that
you know we climbed down off that mountain thankfully but to kevin's point when april
first sorry when august 1st rolls around there is a chance and i'm just
putting this out there for people because you know a lot of people are like oh stock talk you're
always bullish you never talk about risks i don't want people to say i didn't say this i agree with
kevin completely that there's a chance that august 1st becomes and i don't know if kevin put it in
these words but these are my words i think there's a chance that august 1st becomes that apr April 2nd moment if we don't delay it again or Trump doesn't come to an
agreement with the EU and China that has significantly lowered tariffs before then.
My bias is going to lean towards the idea that we're not going to end up with 50 or 40% tariffs
only because I'm trying to be logical about it. And I would think in a logical
conversation, both sides would realize that that will destroy trade. And so from my sort of game
theory standpoint, I'm saying, okay, I think they'll probably come to a more mature agreement
before August 1st. However, to your point, if 40 percent, 30 to 40 percent tariffs do go into place with the EU, which collectively is a 20 trillion dollar economy and China, then, yeah, that's a big deal.
And I think that will be buried for the market.
So, yeah, I want to acknowledge that risk because I think right now, technically, a lot of stuff looks great.
And even today's pullback on SPY, yeah, we had the daily red candle was engulfing, but we're still holding the 90 in May.
We'll see how the action goes into the end of the week.
We could lose it.
We lost it on IWM.
So, yeah, there are some signs of some early signs of technical weakness.
We'll see how they play out into those longer moving averages. But yes, I agree. There's a risk. So I just want to say that.
Yeah. Yeah. No, once again, I don't think, right. So, you know, cause you put a lot of
education out here. So I want to kind of do the same. Look, will it get as bad as what we saw in April? I
don't think so. A couple, well, technically, I don't think it's going to happen. I think that
we probably could have a pullback, but I don't think it would be as aggressive in April. Not
just that alone, right? You would have to have a degrading of earnings estimates, which once again,
degrading of earnings estimates, which once again,
is something that could be a risk here.
But the thing is, is when we have major pullbacks,
like we did, it was because it was a black swan event, right?
Now this is something that's kind of on the radar.
So could you have a re-rating in vol?
Yes. Could you have Velo go up to 30, 35?
Yeah, that could be possible.
Could it go up to 60?
I think you would need like another you need
this plus something else to break right you need jgbs to break you would need um yields to just
massively re-rate higher after our september rate cut something that we saw in the past but like
could that be another thing i think you would need to have something else on top of that to
really break this down back to those lows um but the the reason why i say like this is kind
of a risk thing for me um i feel like balls a little bit cheap so you had all these companies
in what q1 calendar q1 um re-rate earnings down and or pull guidance right there's only a couple
of industries that did see a positive re-rate upside. But these tariffs are actually probably, in my opinion, more aggressive than
what we saw for April, because I think April at some point, we're like, there's no way
in hell. These ones seems like they're actually making the case and kind of baking that into
the whole deficit spending conversation a little bit more
than I would like to hear, which leads me to believe that maybe some of this will actually
stick just because they do want to see that revenue. And I don't see how you actually have
this framework going into place going into this earnings cycle. Well, maybe not this earnings
cycle because it's a little bit too late for a lot of companies to probably read rate guidance,
but I don't see how you kind of have a Q3, Q4 guide that's very strong given these numbers
that are going to be put out.
And so once again, that's where it becomes a little bit of a disconnect when it comes
to valuations.
Now, you know, everybody's saying valuations don't matter and they don't matter until they
But that's just one of those things.
Like, I feel like it would actually be a little bit harder for a lot of these companies to guide,
to provide guidance again
and or to re-rate their guidance higher,
knowing that these are potentially going to be
the tariff rates at stake.
And if they do, they do.
We'll get over it eventually.
You said, one thing though,
product is being rerouted.
So consumption is not slowing down on a global scale, right?
I think we actually saw that with the export numbers from China the other night.
You are actually seeing some positive adjustments there.
Now they're rerouting it.
There could be some trans-tripment type of issues that are out there.
I think the administration is trying to address that.
But I do believe that once you kind of get way too far in
on the spectrum of protectionism i'm not trying to talk into politics i'm just talking policy
uh right uh you could also have the you could also have the ramifications of trading partners
uh making their own deals with other countries china's been doing that and i don't know why
we haven't been talking about that more.
If you actually look at the last two and a half months,
China has been inking deals left and right in the EU,
in the Middle East, everywhere for the most part,
South America, we haven't talked about it.
I mean, China's probably 10X start trade deals at this point.
So I wouldn't say 10X, right?
I probably look at 5X,
but that's where you get a little bit concerned over the long term. But that being said, equities are
still holding up. Volatility, once again, relatively cheap. I think credit spreads,
I have not looked at them over the last week, but if credit spreads, I would assume they're
actually still going to be fairly elevated with yields moving higher of last day or so.
That's something to keep on the radar, but we'll see what happens with earnings.
Last thing I will say, the NVIDIA news.
We haven't actually had a firm confirmation from the White House about these adjustments.
So, you know, I know the market's very enthusiastic about it right now, but those things could be
pulled at any time. And a lot of the analysts, I don't know if monitors have said this, because I walked away when he was talking,
but several analysts actually did start to price in H20s back into rev in estimates,
probably over the last two weeks, three weeks. So this is something that might have already been
on the radar. Maybe they already heard some chatter. so we had a nice little run today we probably will see a guidance readjustment from nvidia but if they're smart i would undercut that guide
um as much as you possibly can basically still trying to price out the china impact because it
is something that is not guaranteed so i'm very curious to see how they're going to pull that one
off uh because once again right you get that revenue flow.
Cool.
But it's been start and stop for the last two years.
It's not only in the Trump administration.
It's been the same thing for the Biden administration.
He's going to guide.
I feel like there's certain CEOs, companies, you know how they're going to guide.
And this is also when companies tell you, hey, we're going to do this massive major thing.
Like Elon might tell you this timeline you don't believe,
but I feel like I give him credit for what he says.
When Jensen says this type of thing, you know,
I very much believe it's going to happen.
Oh, yeah.
No, I'm not.
Once again, I'm not discounting.
I think he's going to use that in the right way and put it in like,
they're going to sandbag the guidance.
Yeah, and they should.
And they should.
But here's the other side of that. So AMD also had a
nice little pop here today. I think it was over 6%. But we don't have confirmation. These are
licenses that are given to these companies to be able to sell. So this could be company specific,
not industry specific. And we haven't had that guidance from the White House. So I'm not trying
to be a bear about it i'm just saying you
know we had a nice pop today at nvidia i would say that pop is probably already pricing in a really
you know re-rating of the guidance moving forward i'm not sure if you're going to see another 10
move or 8 move to the upside once they do guide and put that factor back in there that wouldn't
make any sense to me uh but i don't i would love to hear a confirmation that this is going to be
industry specific
everybody gets a license rather than
maybe it's just NVIDIA
right like that might be
the deal we don't know there's not even like
anything open to state that's on
put some stuff out about it it felt like
maybe AMD just put that out themselves
but it felt like they would have had their own independent things.
We'll see.
We'll see.
Yeah, no, I'm just saying, like, it's a developing story.
That's what I'm saying.
It's a developing story that can change on a dime.
But right now, the primary trend is still to the upside.
So I think, like, you know.
What did you say?
I said primary trend right now is still to the upside.
Yeah, you saw a little bit of weakness today.
I didn't like seeing the value names kind of get hit the way that they did. You'd like to see a value kind of
hold up in days like today. But once again, we have seasonality factors taking place. We do have
maybe some risk over the next two weeks or so that's going to be kind of hitting the market.
So I think you just kind of take it day by day and we kind of just go from there.
But if you're a bear, I don't think you have enough yet to really knock this market down.
I think you're going to need to have a very strong catalyst in order to get a pretty decent
re-rating of 5% to 7%.
I just don't think that we're in that environment yet either.
I think we're more in a consolidation range trade until then.
And unfortunately, and some people love this,
right? But unfortunately, you see the stock that's popping 1% in pre-market and you start
seeing options volume try to spark up the first hour and you ride that trade instead of maybe
trying to diversify your way too much in this market because it seems like, once again, we're
losing a little bit of steam here
and seeing that in the technicals
when it comes to consolidation.
I appreciate you, Kevin.
I think we're at a good place in this space.
I'm chilling, but if anyone has any extra comments,
you're going to get in.
To the point of risk that we were just talking about,
and to the point of Kevin's point of if there's a correction,
a lot of people ask me, hey, in April, since you didn't buy the dip,
what would you do if there was another correction?
A lot of my members ask me that.
I have a list of four names now.
I was mentioning earlier how I allow price action to narrow my thematic baskets.
I go in with four or five names in the basket, you know, when I don't have as much of a, you know, knowledge of the winners.
And then I let the names narrow themselves, you know, and I keep the winners.
And that's how I got to Kratos being my core position in mid-cap aerospace and defense.
And so when people ask me, hey, when the next correction happens,
what are you going to do?
I have a list of four names, the four core names that I mentioned earlier,
Nebius, Robin Hood, Kratos, and why am I blanking?
Nebius, what am I missing?
Oh, Centris Energy, duh. What the hell? Yeah,
LEU, which is my biggest position by waiting. So Centris Energy, which is a nuclear stock,
the nuclear enrichment stock, the only non-state owned nuclear enrichment stock on planet Earth.
And it's still even after 100% move in a month and a half under 4 billion market cap. That's
why I haven't sold a share. Fundamentally speaking, from an earnings standpoint,
it will continue to be volatile.
It's always been the type of stock that goes up or down 20% on earnings.
But I think over the next 10 years,
the case has been made that this is an extremely valuable asset
for national security.
And so that's why I own it, and that's why I'm not selling it.
Bought it at 96 on May 22nd.
Nebius Corp.
I believe there's a ton of optionality with the three
investment businesses I've mentioned. ClickHouse, which is a data observability business that's
used by the biggest companies in the world. OpenAI uses them and SpaceX uses them, which are the two
biggest private companies on planet Earth. And when you're observing tons of data, petabytes of
data, you need observability. And ClickHouse, in my view, is a very valuable company. Nebius owns 28% of ClickHouse. They also own AVRide, which is an autonomous delivery and
robotics company, and they operate in Dallas. And I see their robots all the time. So I think that's
also cool. And I think that company also has probably a multi-billion dollar private market
valuation. They also have Toloka, which is their AI data analysis business, which Jeff Bezos and Ventures led the last round of investment with $75 million.
That, I also think, is a multi-billion dollar business.
That's why I own Nebius.
That's why I haven't sold any.
My cost basis is $23.92.
I bought in late May.
Robinhood.
I exercised the 15 and 20 calls in December and January.
in December and January. My cost basis is 1974. I'm not selling not only because of that cost
My cost basis is $19.74.
basis, but I think they're becoming more than a brokerage and I'm becoming a financial ecosystem
company that will trade at a higher multiple and a higher valuation. And so that's the third name.
And the fourth name is Kratos, which is the highest weighting in my aerospace and defense
basket. I have 2140 cost basis on shares, which is deep, deep in the money. And I have 2027 leaps.
Those four stocks, if the market goes down materially, I will be a buyer.
That's my plan.
That's it.
And all the other trades and positions.
And when I post charts about stocks that I'm trading, those will be sold on technical
breakdowns if they come.
So that's it.
And I know that some people may think that's too simple of an approach,
but I'm a single stock guy.
Different people out there, you're going to have different things
that you do during a correction.
But as a single stock guy, I have four very high conviction names
that I want to own more of.
And on a market correction, I will look to attempt to accumulate them.
I probably won't get all of them where I want them. It just really doesn't happen often. I mentioned with Kratos, I upsized after
earnings. I wanted to upsize on the April dip and I just missed the entry. And sometimes that happens.
Like I'm looking at something else or whatever, or I don't have the buying power at the time or
whatever it is, a million different reasons can happen. But that's the intention. So for those
that are wondering what I would do during market correction that's exactly what i would do i would cut my
trading positions on technical breakdowns and i would accumulate my high conviction stocks and
that's how that's what allows me to outperform is that having that level of conviction in a basket
of four or five names and staying focused on them all year. And during the market corrections,
you know, pull back 10%, whatever the market pulls back 15%, whatever, 20% even, you know,
like in April, I just stay focused on those names. And well, not those names every year,
but those are the names for this year and for the foreseeable future where my focus is.
And that can change, you know, things change change about businesses. Sometimes I talk about stocks.
There's a couple of years ago,
I actually traded more frequently
back in five, six years ago.
When I first started trading,
I traded way more frequently.
But basically every year
since I've started trading,
my frequency has gone down substantially.
I don't know if that's a sign of experience
or just that that's the better way to do it,
but whatever.
That's just how it's gone. i've talked about stocks like years ago and sometimes like if you ask me ask
me about stocks i've talked about in like 2021 and i'm like dude i haven't owned any thoughts
on planet labs yeah right back above my cost basis here we go here we go are you above your
cost basis yeah yeah i think so i was oh wow that's so quick yeah but so that's yeah so there's like
you know there's a lot of stocks i got a lot of d spacks that's a great those are great examples
where i talked about them years ago and traded them years ago and i haven't owned them for years
and people be like oh you know do you still own that i'm like no man like things change you know
if the daily chart breaks down on a core position no i'm not going to sell it, you know, but if the monthly chart breaks down on a core position, yeah, I might sell it, you know, like the, I'm never purely going to
manage a core position, like a high conviction position like that purely off the chart. That's
just not going to happen, but it's a factor of consideration. Like I'm not, not looking at the
chart just because it's a core position. So yeah, if enough factors come against
something I really like, you know, or if I go really, really red on the position, then yeah,
I mean, I'm not going to bag hold it if like the chart starts looking bad, the earnings are getting
worse. There's no real catalysts on the horizon. Like once all those attributes start piling up,
it's like, what are the odds really that you stock is going to do what you thought it was going to do?
The probabilities have gone down. So yeah, I don't love a stock forever just because it's
high conviction at a time. It may be high conviction for a few years and something
might happen, or maybe even six or seven months and then something might happen. That happens all
the time. There's stocks that I really liked two or three years ago that I did well on. And then, you know,
something either happened fundamentally or technically and just made me get out. And
there've also been a lot of stocks I've been wrong on because of that. There've been stocks I've been
shaken out of that I was really high conviction on and wanted to own and then you know something or another happened and
you know i didn't end up owning it you know um in fact centrist energy which is my biggest
waiting position by waiting now is a stock i re-entered if you search leu in my tweets you'll
find tweets going back to i don't know 2023 2022 i used to own it in size with like a 40s cost basis and last year when all these
nuclear stocks ran it ran to like the hundreds and then came back down to the 80s and i was like
dude i don't want to give back all these gains so i sold it it was a nice trade don't get me wrong
it's a double on the trade but i wanted to keep it you know i wanted that to become a core position
and then this year when all the nuclear stuff started happening i'm like fuck man like i gotta i gotta buy it back much higher and i did i bought
it back in 96 but that worked out it's 220 now right so i don't know i mean you're gonna have
stocks sometimes where maybe you get into the wrong time like you really want it but you get
in the wrong time or something crazy happens and it like doubles on you and you're like yeah i'll lock it in that's okay too like am i am
i super mad i missed 16 dollars of room on which is effectively what it was right i bought it 40
sold at 80 back in at 96 it's 220 now so i missed 16 dollars of room am i gonna kill myself over
that no like it's not a big deal but i would like to have had a 40s cost basis instead of a 96
cost basis because when the next market correction comes it could very easy come back very easily
come back to 96 right so yeah i mean you're gonna make mistakes along the way you're gonna sometimes
get shaken out of stuff that like you told yourself you weren't going to like everyone's human
you know like even i a lot of the stuff i preach up about here, I try to reiterate from time to time. Like I also don't nail those things, even though I know them,
I know not to do them. I still make those mistakes sometimes. You know, I tell myself all the time,
don't get shaken out. I did a workshop for our members on not getting shaken out. Right.
And this is hilarious story. This is actually a hilarious story and kind of self
deprecating, but hilarious. I hosted the workshop and we were along cores at that time. This is
before the buyout news. This is before the core we buyout news came out. And we were along cores
just technically. And I got shaken out on the Tuesday before the buyout. And I put in my journal
closing position. And then two days later, it gets bought out. And I was laughing so hard on her screen because I was like, dude,
I just did a workshop on how not to get shaken out. But the truth is, in practice, I do generally
do that pretty well. That's what's let me stay in stocks like Robinhood, which is like 100 bucks
now for the 19 cost basis, or Nebius, which is like 55 now with a 23 cost because i am good at it for my
high conviction positions but i sometimes i'm not good at it with my lower conviction swing trades
like cores for example so you're gonna make mistakes but net net like the markets aren't
hard like they're not difficult it's it's they're stressful and they're volatile and you have to have a stomach for them
like that's more of what it's about i think somebody did a great post on this some i forgot
who it was you wrote like a such a long post on it it's like institutional guy on twitter it's like
weeks ago but here's this long thing like he was like you don't have to do much to make money in
the markets you know like planting a few seeds with some capital
and just letting them grow,
markets generally go up.
There's going to be these corrections
like we had earlier this year,
like we had in 2022
where the market just went down all year.
Those are going to happen.
Sometimes they'll even last longer than that.
They may last five years.
Some of the worst corrections in history
have lasted five, ten years.
We had a lost decade before.
So those things can happen.
They happen often, no.
But, like, if you just accept that and be like, yeah, it's going to happen.
But, like, most of the time things are going to go up and quality stuff is probably going to continue to go up.
And, you know, you look at the charts of most good stocks over the last ten years.
the charts of most good stocks over the last 10 years, they've done pretty well.
They've done pretty well.
You know, so I think net net, you just find out what you want to own, what you want to invest in,
what you believe in, what you can build conviction in.
Try to accumulate it when people aren't understanding the story or are selling it for the wrong reasons
and try to hold it even when it's going up, you know, a lot.
And if you can do that, I think you'd do pretty well in the markets.
But yeah, that's all I'm going to do during a correction.
I'll be focused on those four stocks and I'll cut my trading positions.
And that's pretty much it, guys.
You know, I'll probably give back some performance.
But, you know, I won't I won't let myself give back a lot.
You know, once things start breaking down, I'm going to take a lot of exposure off the table you know in february i went from 112 percent long to like 65 percent long and
15 percent short in the span of a week like i was just slicing slicing slicing like after that first
deep seek soft day i took like an eight and a half percent hit on the whole portfolio on that Monday. Like I got slammed on that deep
seek Monday. And you can see it on my performance chart. You can actually see that. Look at that
drop off. I pinned it at the top for those of you that want to see it, but you can see the drop off
of my performance right there in February. Right. But then if you look at it, what happened after
my performance flattened why because I
cut all the garbage that I was holding all these trades quote-unquote kept my core stuff
bought a bunch of spy puts and just batten the hatches and I sat like that through like April
20th ish and then I think my my call the puts I had expired the week after that or something I
can't remember exactly which week it was but um they expired and then I got the puts I had expired the week after that or something. I can't remember exactly which week it was.
But they expired and then I got out of those.
And then by then, daily charts had improved.
And so then I started getting long again.
And you can see that acceleration on the way back up.
So you don't have to catch the top and you also don't have to catch the bottom.
Out of all these huge rants I've given today, that's the bottom line. You don't have to catch the top and you don't have to catch the bottom. Out of all these huge rants I've given today, that's the bottom line.
You don't have to catch the top or you don't have to catch the bottom to make money in the markets.
At all.
Don't let anyone tell you that you have to.
It's just not true.
Period.
End of story.
No one could convince me that you need to do that.
You don't need to get the absolute best price on the stock and you don't need to get the absolute best price on the entry or the sale. You just don't. It's not necessary. You can make great money. You can double your
portfolio like I did in literally six months by not doing that. And keep in mind, people are like,
oh, you did it with a bunch of options? No. No. 85% to 90% of my portfolio, 85% to 90% at any given time is common shares.
So you don't even need options to do it.
You don't.
You just need good stock picking.
That's it.
Just good stock picking and patience and a stomach.
If you have good stock picking, a patience, and a stomach,
and the good stock picking part is the hardest part, obviously.
That requires the work.
If you have those three things you define, you don't need to worry about anything.
You don't even need to take other people's ideas if you have those three things.
You could rock with whatever your three favorite, three or four favorite stocks are,
and you'll probably do very well with just those principles.
You know?
So, yeah.
That's it for me three rants yes
three rants
hey man we didn't have much of a panel today
till the end so
I was like fuck it why not
yeah no it's good well I know you gotta get a man before you travel
as well but
yeah it's been weird
I don't want you guys to miss me you know yeah
i'm gonna need an international rant very soon tell us how bad the uh airport experience is or
we're gonna be bam for most of the week man where at you're flying all the way to japan for only
bamf bamf that makes so much more sense bam Banff is a great place. You an outdoors guy?
It's fantastic.
Yeah, I mean, Banff is like...
I've been to a lot of places,
but Banff is one of the most beautiful places
I've ever seen in my life. It's an unbelievable
place. It's unbelievable.
Like, pristine wilderness.
I've been to Yosemite.
I've been to, like, a bunch of American national
parks as well.
The one, the Paramount one, the Grand Tetons was very nice.
Yes.
I mean, American National Parks are beautiful.
I'm not taking away from America.
We have way more diversity in our nature anyway. But Banff is insane.
I mean, it takes your breath away.
It's so pristine.
I know every now...
I say we tariff at 20%.
On Canada, yeah.
We'll see.
How do you spell this?
B-A-N-F, I believe.
B-A-N-F-F.
I'll send you a picture I took there
from my iPhone, and you'll be like, holy shit.
I thought you were saying BAMF, like B-A-M-F, like badass.
B-A-N-F-F.
Oh, I see. Oh, okay. Oh, wow.
It's unbelievable, dude.
You literally can't escape the beauty if you're there.
Once you get into the park, if you drive away from the site.
I think you can escape anything here. There's nothing around it.
Where are you going to go?
It's insane.
Look up the Banff serial killer, though.
There's there's one every two years.
That is a problem.
Let's go.
Are they overdue?
No, I'm kidding.
Sorry.
But it is a nice place.
The nice place is like such an undersell.
Like I can't emphasize enough.
If anyone has a chance
to ever go to banff just go you don't even need to do anything just go and like look at it it's
it will take your breath away and a little town like the town of banff they have um there's some
smaller towns around it are beautiful too they're like little you know they're like fudge shops and
like bars it's like very if you go in on Christmas time, your socks will be blown off.
But summertime is amazing.
What's the macros on fudge?
I know you're a big gym guy now.
I'm not going to be eating any fudge, dude.
I'm sticking with the...
It's not going to be that kind of vacation
where I'm just going to not be in routine.
I'm going to be in routine.
I'm going to be going to the gym, too.
You're going to sprint up the mountain a few times? No to the gym too. You sprint up the mountain
a few times?
No, I don't want to sprint up the mountain.
You just
taking the PJ?
You're just going to land right there next door?
Yeah, dude.
I've seen your portfolio. Are you taking private jet?
Based on your returns.
Yeah, dude, you're up 190%.
What are you doing?
Are you flying everyone out? I mean, no, I'm not taking the private jet. Yeah, dude, you're up 190%. What are you doing? Are you flying everyone out?
I mean, no, I'm not taking a private jet.
No, no.
Are you going first class, though?
Business.
Wow, why are we trying to do this thing?
No, here's the thing.
I do not think first class.
If there's a comfort plus, I have actually used it a couple times.
It's worth it.
Yeah, it is worth it times. It's worth it. I like comfort plus.
Yeah, it is worth it.
First class is worth it.
I just want to go to the Sun United if I can pretty much every time.
Yeah, Banff is like the best part of Canada, in my opinion.
It's amazing.
I love it.
Like, it might be one of my favorite places in the world.
Everyone should go.
It's not an expensive place to visit either if you're American.
You know, you just fly up to Calgary.
You can stay in one of the local towns.
You can even stay in Calgary.
It's not a far drive.
And, yeah, it's amazing.
Isn't Calgary's rodeo thing this time of year too?
Yeah, it is.
It's like happening.
It was like happening last week.
I think it just ended.
I was actually going to go for that, but I didn't want to take that much time off so i'm just going
for the wedding uh you can just go you just go over to fort worth i guess anytime unless it
makes sense i honestly get like i know this sounds like nerdy but like i just love the market so much
like if i'm away from what market for more than five days like i feel like i'm just missing
something i can't do it i feel
like it takes like a lot of time to come back yeah it's that but it's also like when i'm like
when i know things are like happening like i just feel like you know i'm i don't know i feel like i
want to be get antsy yeah i get super antsy yeah i can't so i can't take more than like five days
away from anything really.
But I probably should.
I need to take a vacation.
I haven't taken like an actual vacation.
This isn't even a vacation.
I'm going to a wedding.
But like,
I mean,
it'll double as a vacation because Banff is,
it's going to be in Banff.
you know,
why,
why would that not double as a vacation?
But look,
don't let him lie.
Stock talk has already purchased three monitors and shipped them to Banff.
They're waiting on him. He's going to set up at the the hotel he'll be live in the discord honestly like i'm just taking my mac
book but yeah i i'm honestly like i just love lately i haven't even been going to my desktop
some days like i've just been sitting on my balcony with my laptop all day i was doing that
today too it's just more It doesn't feel like work.
I mean, you know, July summer in Dallas sounds nice outside.
It's beautiful in Dallas right now, dude.
It's beautiful.
I almost got stuck in Houston on Sunday with all the rain that y'all got.
Yeah.
Oh, you were here recently?
Well, I flew through Houston when I came back from New York.
Well, both directions.
But I landed Sunday morning in Houston, started working in the United Lounge,
and a few hours later I walked around the corner to get a drink,
and it was just pouring, and every flight on the board just delayed, delayed, delayed, delayed.
Damn, yeah, I hope my flight doesn't get delayed tomorrow morning.
I just want to make that a quick one. I didn't realize, honestly, how short the flight is from Dallas to Calgary.
It's kind of crazy.
It does not look short.
It doesn't look short, yeah, but it's a pretty short flight.
It's like three and a half hours?
It's a four-hour flight.
Yeah, like three and a half-hour flight.
It's not bad.
Houston and New York was like three and a half.
Yeah, but anyway.
Hey, Stock Talk at Urkel here. If you get a chance to stop on your way from calgary
to bamf and canmore nice little town there to spend a night or yeah canmore is fantastic yeah
no i've been to bamf i have family in calgary so i've been many times oh nice i was actually just
in calgary last weekend that's where i flew to with some boys to go to the calgary stampede so
when i heard yeah i did i was thinking a a couple years ago of just getting like a house in canmore and like renting it out when i'm not using it
because i love that little town and it's so close and like i mean you basically get i mean obviously
buying in bams is way more expensive but like canmore for where it is i feel like isn't even
that expensive it's not it's not I mean unless you're right in the heart
of town and you're grabbing one of the houses or condos there but no Canmore is great and it's a
perfect middle ground between Calgary and uh Banff so beautiful and if you get a chance to
condo there and like just being able I mean it's what 15 20 from Banff yeah yeah 20 like depending
on traffic and stuff but yeah great little town we were there last
summer with the boys having a few nights away uh easy to easy to have a good couple nights out
there for sure yeah it should be a good time i'm excited to see it you buy a condo me and evan will
come visit yeah i mean hey guys in the audience if you have 500 people listening don't go bid up
the condos in canmore now, guys.
Come on now.
Everybody's going to Zillow.com right now.
Look at Canmore condos.
Don't compete with us, guys.
I'm not doing it.
I want to see Ivan at a rodeo.
I'll probably be on tomorrow for a little bit on the show because I'll be in be done with my flight by then.
I should be on the show tomorrow for a little bit.
Maybe for the whole show. We'll see. I don't want to make any guarantees
but I'll be on tomorrow for a little bit at least.
Anyway.
We appreciate you, man.
We appreciate the squad. Definitely follow
your speakers as well.
Have fun.
And Urkel.
That'd be my follow-up too for sure.
But yeah.
Let's chat tomorrow.
Take it easy, guys.
All right, everyone.
As always, all three of Stock Talk's rants today were recorded.
So you can go back and listen to those as you lay down tonight.
Appreciate everyone tuning in.
The best lullaby.
The best lullaby.
That's what I do every night actually
when I try to get to sleep my son won't fall asleep
I just put on a talk talk rant
no but seriously
appreciate everyone that tunes into the show each and every day
obviously things are
that was good
things are about to kick up into
full gear with earnings
got a little taste of it today
with any real big names
J.B. Hunt
is on our conference call right now. Tomorrow, UAL, Discover. After the close, we have ASML
overnight tonight. So watch for that probably around midnight to 1 a.m. Eastern time. If you're
watching Semiconductors, there's some other names, of course, tomorrow morning. And then we really
get rolling on Thursday, Taiwan Semi. Netflix in the afternoon will be live for that one.
And each and every day, 3 p.m. Eastern right here, Stocks on Spaces.
Thanks for tuning in.
