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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Aug. 20, 2025 Duration: 3:32:18Space Recording
Full Transcription
What is up everybody?
Evan behind the account again today.
We should be getting a bunch of our friends joining up in a second,
but I hope you guys are doing well.
Obviously, a little bit of red and a little red on the market today.
A lot of tech red.
When you look at the little red on the market today a lot of tech red uh when you look at the the heat
map on the day there are definitely some pockets that are green today the walmart's and costco's
of the world are up more than one percent the tobacco can you actually hear me yeah i got you
now we got you today freaking awesome thank you no i know spaces sometimes uh can be rough but we gotcha we do gotcha uh looking through the market thing
you can see it's the the mega cap tech names which have been leading and doing well are
having a second third day in a row of pullbacks but the overall market there's still a lot of
names under the cover in different sectors medical names besides unH looking pretty strong energy names not looking bad walmart and costco
and philip morris there are a couple names just not the ones that we sit on here talking about
and that the thintuit talks about a lot i know palantir had quite the intraday reversal it still
is red but palantir at one point was down like 10 today and when i last look it was down like
point uh down like two% or so. Yeah.
Down 2%.
We'll see if penalty or does the full,
the full V the flying V and goes green on the day.
That'd be crazy.
We're here on power hours.
So big moves can happen.
We're not,
we're not about to close the day green.
Are we?
I've,
I've,
this market has over the last day or two,
been a little different than the
last couple ones yeah I still think it's two or I think it's early to say that
this is not syllable market and the small pullback within that but who knows
we shall see going forward stock talk want to throw it over to you first say
you're doing if there's anything start off the spaces would was there any yeah
there anything just front of front center topics that you were just itching to Say you're doing if there's anything you want to start off the spaces with. Was there any, yeah,
is there anything just front of front center topics that you were just itching to talk about today?
Oh my God.
We're about to get a stock hot rant at the start of the show.
This is awesome.
Sign me up, baby.
I have a lot of stuff to talk about today.
I mean, we can touch on the Fed minutes.
We can touch on some market action stuff on some individual names.
I mean, there's a lot of stuff we can talk about today, some reports that were out this morning.
But, I mean, do you want to go to the panel first?
Yeah, well, we'll go around it.
No, but I was saying if there's any topics we want to launch into.
No, there's nothing I'm dying to jump into.
No, I mean, there's quite a few things we can talk about today, but nothing I'm dying to jump into no i mean i there's there's quite a few things we can talk about today but nothing i'm dying to jump into off the rip so yeah why don't we get to the panel first give everybody
a chance to get their thoughts out and then and then we'll rotate back cool let's go over to uh
options mike you can kick us off with the the first real one today what were you watching today
i appreciate it i'm sick as hell so uh i apologize in advance for my voice if i cough for everybody
um i wanted to go
and do it like a nice response to people yesterday who imitated me they were they were fabulous i
really want to thank them for that it was awesome uh i think today i mean yesterday i think was a
a take notice candle right yesterday we broke below the eight day and today we broke below 21 day but we're back above it here um i tried one short
today i got out flat on meta and then a minute later it finally broke down after sitting in the
short for 20 minutes it didn't move and it finally did uh then i traded uh spx calls and made some
nice money and some hood up to the upside a couple times times. And I really don't have a feel for
where this market wants to go. And I just want to be honest with that. I don't have a feel for,
you know, I'm hoping we go lower, but this market's been so resilient. It makes me think
that we're just not going to go that far. And, you know, the fact that we, you know,
right back above the 21 day here that the opening dip, which lasted till 11 o'clock has been bought back half of it
already it's just like okay um you know palantir got crucified and it's almost back to the open
hood and the coin almost got back to the opens today you know there's some damage on the covers
there definitely is i mean you know i've been looking around but the financials are holding
strong energy strong this market's just kind of in a weird spot.
And it's the end of August, so I try not to overly read into these things.
We're going to get Powell on Friday.
I didn't read anything into the Fed minutes other than that there's some division there, but it's maybe not as bad as it seems.
Long term, I didn't cut any of my positions today because I've been lighting up into this.
I'm actually looking to buy here.
I'm hoping we can actually get down to the 50-day area.
That's where the 3% correction is on the SPY.
Sorry, correction, pullback.
I don't have a lot here that is – I kind of feel like we're just kind of just in one of these modes and the market
doesn't, the easy move was
down today, if that makes sense and
I don't think like there's
anything out of the covers that's horribly
bad, I mean
Palantir selling well, I mean that had to
happen, Hood, yep, that had to happen
eventually, right, we knew that
Apple holding in fairly well you know that. Apple holding in fairly well.
Google's still holding in fairly well.
Financials are strong.
Energy's had a nice little move today.
Mixed day for a lot of these safety names
like Clorox and Coke and Pepsi, which were all up.
I'm sorry, my voice is shot, Evan,
so I'm not gonna be able to talk a lot today um but i mean i don't feel like there's anything horrific going on here
under the hood does that make sense yeah no i agree it was a nice action today where we're kind
of talking yesterday about certain levels on the downside whether it's the eight day the 20.
um whatever i forget what brian lund was talking about tomorrow specific uh yesterday specifically yesterday about certain levels on the downside, whether it's the eight day, the 20, whatever.
I forget what Brian Lund was talking about tomorrow, yesterday specifically.
Brian did me so well.
I had to get him props, man.
It was good. Honestly, it was accurate.
It was accurate for what you said just now, too, at the start.
I didn't say anything today about what I took out of the game, so I'm vindicated there.
But yes.
No, he was really good.
I actually always appreciate that.
I just don't feel like, could we go lower?
Yes.
Do I hope we go lower?
I do.
Personally, because I think the setup's been better if we go lower.
This market's so resilient, I wouldn't be surprised if we break back up to the upside
here in the next day or two.
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised either.
That's what this market
has been. So
we shall see if
this is different. I'm going to mute now because my
voice is completely dead.
I appreciate you, Mike. Feel free to jump into more.
Feel free to jump into more of the convos.
And by the way, Emp, we miss you, man. Congrats to you.
Congrats to Emp. For anyone who doesn't know
had a kid,
I have no idea when he'll be back on the spaces my guest is sooner than he probably should be so i'm sure we'll hear him here in the not too
not super too distant suits here we shall see though i want to go over to crossroads mr roy
roy how are you doing sir doing well thanks for. Thanks for the invite. Yeah, no, we appreciate you joining us.
I know you're a little bit of a different type of market participant than Mike.
I know you're much more of a longer-term investor.
I've been seeing a couple of your posts and different other stuff going on.
Before I ask you about one or two names, is there any –
honestly, the ones I'm going to probably ask you about, New, SoFi, and PayPal,
so I guess I'm going down a fintech route.
But are there any stories, stocks, anything like that, that are catching your eye that you were excited to talk about?
I mean, like the Palantir one with Citron and everything.
It's hilarious, though.
We did listen.
long we had chris patel on this spaces yesterday and i i told him listen i respect that chris you
We had Chris Patel on this basis yesterday.
are not only the person giving uh this about their talent to your take but you're friends
with a lot of people so i know you're getting a lot of experience on it do you do you think
he was smart enough to sell his shorts and get up citron uh no i i think he's an idiot i i agree
i agree uh like the thing is today greed works both ways in the market and short sellers like I think he's an idiot. I agree. I agree. Point to me today.
Greed works both ways in the market.
And short sellers, when things are going well for them,
and frankly, they are on the short for Citroën,
theoretically, I'm sure that it is.
Then they like to boast and brag and talk about,
and then if not, then they talk about why,
basically whining why it's not
going the direction, but it should, that they expect. And they're going against a natural
tendency of the market. I don't think retail should shorten anyway. And there are legitimate
short sellers. There are very legitimate companies that should be shorted. In this case, I think a
lot of short sellers, including Citron, make the mistake of, instead of just saying, okay,
Palantir is really expensive. And here's a few
areas where they're weak or vulnerable. And you can make a legitimate case with that. That's fair.
That's fine. And I agree. It's very expensive. But then you go from that. And then you go to
increasingly sketchy and spurious arguments, which, I mean, frankly, Citroen has been doing
left and right, pulling things out front and center. Not quite lying because, I mean, he is in a legal battle right now because of some market manipulation.
We'll see how he does there.
But it's just it's hilarious that basically his whole legitimate argument is around valuation.
There are some other things you could poke at with Palantir that are bearish, but he has not.
He's missed all of those.
And instead, he's throwing out a bunch of arguments that just like throwing spaghetti and so on.
Can I step in?
Am I the only person that hoping he gets his ass ramed here?
And I don't mean that nastily.
I mean, this is the guy that cried during the meme stock
because he was shorting, right?
He had to get bailed out.
And I'm never going to short again.
And now he shorts all the time.
Like, can somebody please just shut him up forever?
Yeah, literally, it's a good call out
there. It was 2022, he said that he'd never short again. Here he is shorting. And again, it should
be legal. You should be able to short. And if you want to do a short just based on valuation, I mean,
you'll win some of those, but that's really risky, especially on a name like Palantir,
which is not trading ever or hasn't for a long time based on fundamentals.
It trades on the narrative and the narrative is intact for Palantir.
It's intact for the market, too.
This is a pullback.
Pullbacks are healthy in a market.
Earnings season has been great.
We've seen, I think, about 80 percent beat earnings.
I was trying to pull up from the trans.
Trying to pull up from the trans, oh, here it is.
Oh, here it is.
Earnings are up about 13% year over year, almost 15% excluding energy, which is phenomenal in any quarter.
And of course, the next quarter as well for analyst estimates looks very rosy as well.
So fundamentally, yes, maybe you say, well, you know, this is just things got a little bit priced too much too soon.
And you can say that for a lot of names, but I'm not really seeing any deterioration in the macro or in the market you there's always things you
can find but we're just climbing the wall of worry this is healthy pullback
and a great time to add names that are quality conviction and companies
including Palantir which I've been adding to just a little bit from my $12
average I'm going to destroy that but that's okay
Okay.
So, Evan, I know you mentioned some other fintech names as well.
You know, SoFi, like, it's basically a broad market pullback.
A lot of times sorts to, this is kind of the annoying thing about Citron is, you know, you can pound your chest and be like, look how right it was.
It's like, well, yeah, macro.
Of course, to be fair, us as bulls, we can think that we're the greatest geniuses in the world since April 5th.
And the reality is, if you're in a name that hasn't done well, I mean, that's an aberration. A lot of stuff is done well.
You can almost throw a dart at the wall and be right 90% of the time at this point.
So it's a great thing to be biased in the direction the market goes.
He absolutely caught
the mark at the right moment with this you nailed it right he absolutely did mark it was ready for
a pullback and he caught it yep and is the valuation still high of course it is yes does
it really matter in this in this market and i mean this market because it does matter at times
market and I mean this market because it does matter at times and this market I don't think it does.
Yeah it's it's uh I agree with it yes it's it trades on it like many other stocks uh in you
don't want to like go all in on a name like that especially as high as it is uh or like I'm adding
but it's like it's really it's a slow slow dca that I'm adding just because I ended up having some covered calls get
away from my Palantir. So I have less of a position that I'd like to have. So I'm being
cautious on adding. Now, if Citron is right, which I think he's absolutely wrong, but let's say
Palantir goes to 40 bucks. I love that. I would love that so much. That would become my largest
position easily. It might become half of my portfolio at 40 bucks a share, probably more,
honestly, because even there, it still looks kind of expensive to some
people. It's not, though. The arguments
that he's using are kind of weak.
Can I sell out a quick story?
I bought
Citron. I'm sorry, Citron. I bought
Palantir just before the
COVID thing
at around $39.
I held it down into the 11 area and i sell calls against it
calls against and i'm getting out of it about break even at 39 bucks i've been crying ever since
yeah if it got back to there i would love every moment of it i'm with you
oh yeah i think it's a great company and at one point like in 2022 palatir became 90 of my
portfolio so i've sold some along the way i think it's prudent to take gains even as a long-term
investor uh but because of covered calls i sold more than i wanted so yeah i would i would hope
to re-add those shares i may not get a chance that's fine that happens but yeah uh pullbacks
are healthy and in quality names you know wait for wait for that strike level, add or DCA, however you want to do. But I'm just seeing this.
And I think a lot of us are probably as well, seeing this as an opportunity to add,
not even though there's a lot of fear, probably for like, you know, new investors.
They're always at zero.
Roy, what part are you looking to add? And have you bought anything?
I saw on YouTube your last video was like, I bought some new.
I don't know exactly that was film versus whatever i really want to ask you so fine paypal but um yeah in this environment i know
you're a long-term guy and you kind of talked about palantir there is there anything you've
bought or you uh looking at maybe buying i bought duolingo uh that one it may not be like a super
long term i think it's a great company it It's one that I missed during COVID. I just overlooked. I actually didn't realize it was publicly traded at the time.
And was still trying to figure out my style of investing at that point.
I saw this as an opportunity, very strong. I don't think they're being disrupted by AI. I think
people misunderstand. I think the market really misunderstands what Duolingo is about.
I've added to NewBank. I've added to NVIDIA. I don't mind adding to NVIDIA
here. Earnings are next week. I don't really care what earnings do. It's fundamentally,
it's a strong company that's in the center of this AI wave, which is not going to end magically
in two years. There is a point when NVIDIA doesn't grow like it's growing. That's fine. Yes,
it's the most expensive publicly traded company in the planet, but it deserves to be. And I think over
the next five to 10 years, which is my horizon, there's a lot of upside. So I don't mind adding
slowly to that one. I've added and filled out my position for air test systems. I don't mind
adding to pretty much any name in my portfolio as we continue to draw back, but I still have a lot of cash. I'm more than 10% cash right now. All right.
AEHR is a name
I heard from a stock talk.
Now, he's going to say I haven't traded in
a while, but
AEHR
stock talk, is that one that's on your
radar at all?
I'm going to say exactly what you thought I was going to
say, which is I haven't looked at it in a while.
Let's look at it.
Take a look.
I like the weekly a lot.
The daily needs a little bit of work.
I like the weekly a lot.
Seems like maybe we got a half-ass bounce off the 50-day.
Not quite a retest, but yeah.
What was your thesis there i know you like to kind of do a little
long-term versus i haven't funded this in like two years so i i don't i don't know you've been
doing these for a long time yeah we've been doing these for a long time yeah that was a crazy poll
when you mentioned that i was like dude i haven't mentioned that stock in years but
yeah the monthly chart i think looks the monthly and weekly, like look fantastic on this, but I haven't paid attention to the story enough to like
jump into it or anything. But I mean, look, you have, you have basically, I mean, it's crazy to
say, but you have basically four years of volume consolidation on this thing right like you go back to january of
21 no that's july of 21 you go back to july of 21 there was a massive volume candle this thing
went from like two bucks to eight bucks and since then the thing has had like no volume
and it's traded in this i mean i don't even want to call this a range because it's not a range it's just like this bellowing very very wide action but recently it has tightened a little bit and
that's pushing back into the 200 day for the first time since uh feb of 24 so yeah it's a nice look
it's cut back into the 200 day i mean i don't think it's discouraging like i said daily could
use a little work but i like it on the weekly and the monthly.
Yeah, what I've been interested in there is, you know, they popped, like you said, a few years ago, silicon carbide.
They did the burn in wafer test for, you know, a lot of what's happening.
But specifically, silicon carbide was all the rage at that point.
A lot of those are used in EV vehicles.
And, of course course that market has seen
some massive headwinds instead of tell winds and so they still do that they still provide that as
well but what's really got my interest is a gallium nitride which specifically is used in a lot of ai
and data center applications and they are right now the only ones that actually do the wafer level burn in for gallium nitride multi-stack layer system
and it's just looking at this like the i believe it was the last earnings uh where gain erickson
kind of laid out uh and an analyst asked a great question on what what's the tam look like for this
what's the opportunity specifically in gallium nitride which of course they have silicon photonics
silicon carbide this is still okay it's just it's been a headwind rather than a nitelwind for a while and it's immense. And the narrative
basically shifted over the last year, which I wasn't really paying attention to it at all at
that point, but I've gone back and looked from them not even knowing if it was possible to do
this kind of test on gallium nitride the way that they did,
but they had a customer that really wanted them to try. So they did, they were successful wildly.
So now they're, they're currently qualifying a number of people that are interested as well.
And there is rampant, rampant interest in demand. And actually a lot of their customers or future
customers are just in shock that they're actually able to pull this off and do this. And this is a company that has a very long track record. It's not just a pop-up and
we can't really trust what Gain Erickson or the company is saying and doing. So I think that
there's a phenomenal upside. It's not necessarily going to be, it is a micro cap. So anything can
happen with the stock. It's not necessarily something that I am expecting to perform
incredibly well over the next year.
But over the next two to three years, I think that there's an immense opportunity here.
So continuing to learn about it, I build out my position.
It's not a massive position.
It's about 5% allotment in my portfolio right now.
But yeah, I'm pretty excited by that one.
And I love to hear that it looks good on the weekly and monthly.
the weekly and monthly data. That never hurts.
That never hurts.
Yeah, some of the
way you were describing the things you were
excited about is similar stuff
to what I've heard StockTalk talk about
in the past. Now, I don't know the difference between
Gallium Nitrate and anything StockTalk has
talked about half the time, but they do sound
similar.
Connecting dots, connecting dots.
Yeah, no, I mean, if you like this, this is
one of those stocks where if you like the story, this is type of chart like i would long if i liked the story so you
know for what that's worth um it's a nice structure maybe take another look since it's been a little
while let me know what you think too yeah i'll look into it yeah i mean like i said i haven't
looked into it fundamentally but i'll look into it fundamentally i i don't ever trade stocks off
just the chart anyway so um if i was going to take a position i't looked into it fundamentally, but I'll look into it fundamentally. I don't ever trade stocks off just the chart anyway.
So if I was going to take a position, I'd look into it.
But I will.
In a different universe, you and Jaguar have a fantastic show right now.
It's been going on for two, three years.
Me and Jaguar actually like a lot of the same stocks.
You have such a great same style too.
I think you guys fit so well together.
It's a shame. It's a shame.
It's a shame.
We've butt heads, but I like disagreeing with people.
Maybe we bring it back together because you and him, I think, is a great combo.
You guys have a very similar style.
Kratos, Embraer, Arrow Vireman, BWXT.
There's so many names that me and Jaguar have both liked for years.
I have a lot of respect for Jaguar.
I think he's a great stock picker.
Me and him butt heads on the macro, but that's okay.
Disagreements are okay.
Stock talk.
I bought Kratos today.
Oh, look at you.
Welcome to the family.
Hey, Toast.
Where are we at?
I bought a little bit ago.
Cost base is $5,107. I bought a little bit ago. Cost base is $5107.
I bought on July 15th. There was a little later into some of the conversations. At some point,
I was like, all right, we'll just buy a tiny bit and see how it goes. That type of market.
I said at $25, we were going to $100 on Twitter. I said that and we're what? I mean,
And we're what?
I mean, we got to 70.
we got to $70. Now we're back at like $60-ish, but we'll get there.
Now we're back at like 60-ish.
But we'll get there.
I want to come back to SoFi.
But I do want to actually say this because I've been talking a lot about Intel on here.
There was a story that came out this morning around Intel that some of the equity stake they're looking to build is going to be at a discounted price.
So basically, Intel is trading at $23, $24, $25, whatever it was.
And they're going to be looking to do. I don't see what price was but that means it'll be less 18 20 i don't know
that was sort of my concern when the whole u.s government equity stake thing came up in intel
and everyone started chasing intel that was one of the things i mentioned which is like okay yeah
the u.s government's gonna take an intel, a stake in intel. That sounds promising. But what does that imply for Intel's valuation?
Right?
Like, in what universe is anyone, including the U.S. government, going to pay a premium for Intel?
And if you know anything about Trump, I mean, obviously, he's not going to pay a market premium to acquire that stake, right?
So that complicates the Intel scenario.
complicates the Intel scenario. It does. Because you have to assume that whether it's strategic
It does.
equity owners or even if it's private companies, even if it's other semiconductor companies,
right? Like Taiwan Semi. Why would Taiwan Semi pay a premium for Intel shares? They'd be out of
their mind to do that. Every dollar of which they would do that with would be better spent on
increasing their own infrastructure. So like in no scenario would Taiwan Semi, which the Trump administration or there's
been reporting that the Trump administration has wanted them to do that as a way of bringing
up Intel's competitiveness from a talent standpoint and an infrastructure standpoint.
Well, if we want Taiwan Semi to do that, they're not going to do it at a market premium.
They would probably do it at a deep market discount. So i don't find that headline from today to be surprising frankly
i think a lot of the people were bidding it up on the idea that an equity stake is bullish i think
they're probably caught off guard by that but i think it's basic logic right like intel is a
not a uncompetitive business but it's nearly an uncompetitive business compared to its peers.
And it does not deserve a market premium in the open market, right?
Like the big runs that we've seen in Intel have been a product of what?
Management.
I'm talking about in the last few years, management changes, right?
We've seen runs in Intel because of that U S government potential
cooperation or, or, or more lately investments?
That's what you've seen runs in Intel on.
Have we seen any big sustainable runs in Intel in the last few years on business improvements?
Well, you have the Intel bulls and they'll add to the position and so on.
And then you get a 10% move after hours based on the U.S. government saying they're going to buy it.
Yeah.
I think that that is, yeah, that's definitely traders trying to get in there i mean like there's there's no way that intel bulls are looking at that like
real intel bulls who are into the company fundamentally are going to look at that
and be like oh now it's signed by intel it's like no they're probably in it still they probably stuck
around for more than a few years eating the drawdown or opportunity cost whatever it is
like i'm not gonna bad mouth it i mean i've stayed in companies for a long time. I'm not saying it's going to zero either. Here's the thing though. Here's what I want to say.
The reason I brought this up though was I have been riding that trade and I've been
rolling my calls. Maybe I wouldn't have gotten as much at the peak, but I locked in those trades.
The long-term shares that I was holding in my portfolio that I was sitting on,
I sold. Cost basis, 30, 35, not something I was making money
on, but I use this move up even today. I think I might've sold some after or before, but to get
out in the longterm. I think most, a lot of it was today at 2360 is what I actually sold out today.
So I just want to say that on here that even though I am still, I still have that call,
that last call swing at 27, but I did use this to get out of my common shares.
Truthfully, I bought a share of QQQ, two shares of QQQ, and that was about it.
I'd rather have my money there.
Yeah, I mean, look, I also don't want to come across as somebody that's saying Intel is over or you shouldn't buy it or you shouldn't try to buy it like i mean the stock has pretty much attempted to bottom over the last you know
eight to nine months and it's built to bottom effectively around this 19 area that you that
has been tradable off of right like if you bought the stock at 1850 at any time in the last several
months you could have made a productive trade from that 1850 floor into the 20s, in some
cases, the high 20s, right? That's a nice trade. So I'm not deflecting people from trading the
stock. Trade the stock. If you make money doing something, don't let anyone convince you not to
do it. And that's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that it's going to be difficult for
Intel to turn the entire story around, the long-term story around it's going to
be difficult without actually being competitive from a product standpoint even if the u.s government
does end up taking a stake like you still have to be competitive right like you you can't say like
oh well don't worry we're an american company we fly an american flag so we'll be okay like i mean
i've said this before but tai Taiwan Semi is effectively an American
company now too, in all things besides name. So, you know, you have to compete with those
companies and Intel has been unable to do that for a long time. And for me, if I ever wanted to open
like an actual longer term swing or investment position in Intel, I would rather open it 30 or
40% higher from the current prices with more confidence in the product story than I
would open it here and just hope that they execute. Right. And I say this a lot. There are a lot of
stocks and a lot of scenarios, both fundamental and technical, where I prefer to pay higher prices.
Right. Not because not because I don't want to get lower prices. Obviously, everyone wants the lowest possible price, but because I prefer when the story has improved or inflected or is beginning to inflect.
And when the chart has improved and the structure has improved, those are better risk reward entries for me where I don't have to do a lot of guesswork and I can get into a stock confidently, both confidently in the technical side and the fundamental side
and hold it with size, right? Like people who advocate for knife catching often do it with
negligible size. And so even if you do nail it, you're nailing it in, I was too scared to buy a
lot size, right? And no one makes real money doing that. You make real money with high conviction
positions that you have the confidence to size into and that you have the visibility to manage.
And for me, in order to have the visibility to manage a position, I need the technical structure
to be intact because that allows me to know where I expect to see resistance for price, where I
expect to see productive dips that are worth buying, and those sorts of things.
You want to know a company that will probably look like a good setup to you that is fundamentally, well, not fundamentally,
is the largest digital bank in Latin America,
and Crossroads knows what I'm talking about.
They just had earnings last week, NewBank.
I read a great report on them yesterday morning.
Oh, my goodness.
Citi did a double upgrade on that company. Yeah, it was a great report. And I don't even like Citi, but it was a great report on them yesterday morning. Oh my goodness. Citi did a double upgrade on that company.
Yeah, it was a great report.
And I don't even like Citi, but it was a great report.
Yeah, so if you look at the chart too,
when it had earnings,
it basically broke through all the moving averages.
I thought coming into earnings,
the 200-day moving average
was going to be somewhat of resistance.
Coming in there,
and it just broke right through, obviously,
with high volume after earnings.
But then it came back to retest that 50-day moving average and then bounced right back up even after coming back to retest the descending channel on that stock.
So I think that NewBank may have bottomed over here considering that their net interest margins, it looks like they have bottoms because they've been falling for the last four consecutive quarters.
And this is the first quarter where they actually expanded those margins.
If anyone doesn't know, net interest margin is probably the one thing you want to look
at when you look at financial institutions or banks, because that basically just shows
how much money they're making off the arbitrage of just basically loaning out the deposits
that they're getting from clients, which they have a lot of deposits that are growing astronomically.
I'm sure Crossroads is a lot to say about it, but even the chart is just like, wow.
And along with that, it's up 4% today
when the market is, eh, it's not down that much,
but it was pretty much flat to green all day.
Yeah, it's, I mean, it was a really strong report.
If you look at like just the headline numbers
and that's it, you'd be like, eh, whatever.
But that's really missing this story.
And really the reason why Citi reversed course
and said, hey, we're actually doubling our price target.
We're switching from sell to buy.
This is a company that executes.
They were born out of recession.
They're resilient.
There's always going to be geopolitical noise that comes and goes, ebbs and flows.
But really what they've shown with Mexico, I think, beyond what you mentioned with the net or dismargin,
which they alluded to previous quarter that it was probably bottoming. It looks like it has bottomed. It's always going to be a little bit lumpy, but
there were some specific things that they targeted. And every single time they target
something, they know that. And so specifically in Mexico, that was what I was looking at before
I became an investor a year and a half ago or a year ago, whatever it was, just to see how that
was going. And I had enough of a read on it. I'm like, okay, if they take Mexico, they're going to take all of
Latin America, essentially. There may be some companies or countries rather that they don't
go into, but that's the linchpin. And they've been succeeding very well. And this report right
here basically illustrated a magical moment that in Mexico, they're of course building out in
Mexico and Colombia, the deposit franchises, which is a drag on net interest margin. There's a few other drags as well. But
the most significant thing to me is you see that expansion. There's always going to be some users
in whatever country that you look at that are tech savvy, that like the next best thing,
they're going to be early adopters. They've gotten past that population in Mexico. They're
still growing very nicely. On top of that, they ended up cutting their deposit yields from 15% to 11.5%. And yet customers stayed in masses.
It was very, very, I mean, they didn't really didn't have any much churn at all other than what
you would normally expect through a given season. Despite competition that's already existing,
already they're offering a giving higher yield. So this is kind of like the question that a lot of people had in their mind is like, is NewBake just succeeding because
they're giving a lot of money away and they're basically burning money in Mexico to grow
and also for deposits? Well, no. I mean, that is part of the story and that is part of how you scale,
but also they have a phenomenal product that people love that is sticky and quite a moat,
and they're going to win in Mexico, which means they're going to win in all of Latin America.
And they're not just going to stop there either.
So great report.
There's a reason why it's up.
I was happy to add more and happy to just hold it,
not to worry too much about the share price.
Yeah.
I added more today as well.
Don't want to say like what I added in.
Let's just say it's not say it's not in shares.
Unless I'm buying bonds, I think it's pretty awesome what I did. But at the same time,
I really think that looking at other emerging markets as well, seeing a little bit of rotation,
possibly out of tech, we're seeing a lot of rotation today out of pretty much what's been
leading the market up for some time. I don't necessarily think we're going to get a dramatic pullback,
but I do think the rotation is really happening in front of our eyes.
You can see XLK, which is basically US tech and XLY, consumer discretionary,
and XLC, and those are pretty much all the mega caps in all those SPY sectors
or S&P sectors.
They're all down while pretty much all the other sectors are up.
With XLE or energy leading, you really, just a very obvious rotation happening here.
You saw the dip being bought pretty dramatically this morning, coming into the beginning of the
day, from the beginning of the day into the middle of the day. I mean, this just looks like all signs
that money and capital is rotating out of the tech leaders and the high beta is rotating other
stocks, even though NuBank is a high beta growth stock as well,
along with Mercado Libre, Grab, C Limited, and so on.
I think the money is going to be rotating into these emerging market sectors,
probably not for the rest of the year,
but probably for some time as there's going to be some performance changing.
Go ahead, Evan.
Yeah, you can go.
Yeah, I was going to say,
you mentioned the other fintech.
So just like real quick,
because you mentioned PayPal and SoFi earlier.
There's been like,
it's been tough for payment names.
SoFi, thankfully,
it's one of those times where it's like,
hey, it's actually nice.
It's being perceived as a bank right now.
They've done very well. They had a phenomenal last quarter.
They reported three or four weeks ago. And PayPal, honestly, had a great quarter relative to expectations as well. Triple beat, very strong. Market sold it off anyway. That's just
kind of where payments is. So sometimes we have sector-based rotation. That's where it is with payments. A lot of perception that there's a lot of disruption across the
industry and space. And for some names, that certainly is true. There's some aspects of
payments I wouldn't want to be fully exposed to. PayPal does have some of those too, but
yeah, continue to just sit on those positions and we'll let the companies execute and we'll
see where they go. Yeah. There's also D's also d local which is basically international back-end payment system not necessarily pos but mostly for
the back-end work and then there's a stone co which is mostly latin american focused and toast
which actually i was kind of surprised how that sold off even after the earnings which i thought
was still a good earnings report um a lot of these companies are traded pretty cheaply.
But as Crosswood was saying,
the payment processing space is not really getting any love.
You even see, even after Jared Isaacman,
he's still the chair of Shift 4,
which is mostly used in restaurants and hospitality.
He increased his size pretty dramatically recently,
and that got quite a bidding and then has pretty much sold off a little bit from there. But
I think a lot of this stuff is really mispriced. I think a lot of people are looking at the
Palantir's, Robinhood, and so on, and you just got to open your eyes in the other sectors of
the market. And you could still stand in growth. A lot of these payment companies are growth stocks.
I'm a very strong growth stock investor.
And when I look at some of these other mispriced assets, you know, I'm not going to add to my
hood positions from here.
You know, I have that cost basis power that Stock Talk talks about a lot.
But then I look at these other names that I believe are mispriced.
You know, PayPal is not on my radar, but I think there's going to be a point where the
market's going to be chasing this thing.
Like they're only expanding their processing, their pay and processing in international transactions than Stablecoin.
And that's the same thing that we saw from a lot of other companies.
They're expanding payment processing with Stablecoin.
Stablecoin is, I'm not going to make guarantees say that's going to happen next year, but that's generally the direction we're going to be headed when you're talking about almost immediate settlement for your transactions and very fast and at very low cost.
You know, you see this move that a lot of people are doing toward Ethereum, Latomley is doing.
I feel like that's kind of a different story riding that wave.
But at the same time, I think the real alpha when it comes to payment processing is just faster transactions, reduced fees, and at the end of the day, increase the margins
of these companies that are in those systems.
I mean, if they can actually succeed doing this, like we're talking about rapid margin
expansion once they start implementing these projects at scale.
And if you start doing that across payment systems around the entire world, like that's
going to be an explosive effect on fintech, in my opinion.
Lou, I want to bring you into the conversation.
I don't know if fintech is something that you watch at all
or any of the topics that we've talked about here
and then just in general what you're watching.
Yeah, so many directions to go
that whether we talk about the Palantir to Pampers trade,
I mean, there's a rotation, as Sam said,
into staples of all things today.
I've got my own Citron rant and experience with them, a story there.
But I want to go back to the beginning of what options Mike was saying.
He's not even on right now, I don't think.
But I agree with him.
I couldn't put a finger on a specific reason or fundamental or data point.
But the market just felt off in the last couple of days.
market just felt off in the last couple of days. If I look at like last week, you know,
Tara Wolf was a trade that I was in that, you know, worked out really well as they announced a
big deal for HPC compute and Google was taking a position. They came out Monday,
announced an extension of that deal. So like 6 billion in total among both those deals. And it
was really dragging that whole space up between IREN and cypher mining. And even, you know, Core Scientific really kicked that off
with CoreWeave. So that was looking really good. And like everything was just going to keep rallying.
And then the same thing like Viking Therapeutics with Nova Nordisk cutting prices in half for
non-insurance payers. And, you know, everyone thought Viking was going to have great data that
was going to be a pill that replaces all these weight loss drugs.
It just seemed a little frothy.
So I think it's good.
Like it's a good just pause moment right now, especially too, if you think we're just wrapping
up earnings, maybe it's a little polite justice.
I feel like we always come into Nvidia week, like waiting for Nvidia to save the market
and the bull market again.
So look, we're Wednesday, maybe by Monday that's changed.
But it's interesting to me that here we are, we're going to talk about the future of the
bull market, the future of AI all riding on a single earnings report, which is never the
case.
AI is well intact.
The growth is well intact.
I think that AI Bitcoin miner pivot to AI is going to be a really powerful trend that
keeps playing out.
I've been adding to those positions.
Like Sam, I wasn't buying stocks or bonds.
So I got longer with some leap options, which I think is really compelling at this point of the market, getting out to 2026, 2027 for a little bit of leverage on these moves.
I think it's interesting, too, what the Fed's going to do.
You get the minutes.
Powell's going to do, right? You get the minutes, Al is going to speak.
I really feel like they're, and this is gut after reading the data and watching the change
in futures market.
There was a period last week heading into CPI where people were thinking, high probability
of one, 25 basis points.
Then we got the CPI report and like everyone abandoned that.
We're definitely getting 50 basis points.
And then within a matter of days, we got the PPI report and everyone switched again.
Today we're switching again.
So I think there's just this, it's a directionless market right now because we're on the tail end
of earnings.
We're waiting for the Fed.
I think if the Fed is stubborn and holds rates, I think you're going to get some of these
big tech names coming down some more.
But I think that's good. I echo everyone else's.
I look at all the tech names and say these are places to buy.
Alphabet is a name I continue to add to because it's the only MAG7 stock that I think is undervalued.
I liken the MAG7 to a boy band that broke up.
You got to pick one or two of them that are going to have breakout careers, not all of them.
And then the other thing, like Citron with Palantir, like I haven't played in Palantir.
I don't quite understand it, never really did, so I couldn't get my arms around it.
I wish I just bought blindly like everyone.
But Citron, you know, everything's speculation, allegedly.
But I came up in the markets at a time when Citron cut their teeth writing, let's say, misleading short reports about story stocks in the micro cap and
small cap space that got overvalued and had huge runs. And they don't practice as, let me just put
it this way. I prefer higher integrity research. So if he gets a little comeuppance on some of the
suits against him about maybe working with hedge funds, the front run, I think we all get what we
deserve in the end. But it's interesting to me that you would try and pick this point of the market to try and short palantir uh or any of
these ai names because i think the tape is just always going to be fighting you um so yeah it's
interesting to me i'm looking i've got a lot of cash like like crossroads was saying looking for
what's next but nothing's jumped off where it's like a screaming by that i got to really go in
with a high conviction position.
I can add to that Citro and Palantir short, you know, be whatever fundamental they want to argue.
The main stake of the entire argument was valuation.
And my argument, and as Dan was, sorry, as Lou was saying, is that is that you know you can come up with a valuation argument for time and time and time again you could they could have shorted pounds
here a year ago and they would have gotten smoked like we don't we don't even know when they're
going to cover they could have covered by now they could have said they doubled down they're
just projecting news out but we don't know what their position is whether that might be oh go ahead
no i was just going to tell you i bet you they covered so i watched when they got that suit i'm a nerd i love
sec filings i dug into the suit and showed all the trading history so like andrew left would be on
cnbc talking it up while they were trading out of all their positions so i'm very surprised if they
have much of that position left based upon historical patterns exactly i mean that's what
a lot of these short reports are
it's an it's basically they're trying to create exit liquidity to get out of their positions or
cover their shorts which is essentially buying the stock that they are short or have sold short on
right like that that's what they do these things for and you know what they say on tv is a lot
different from what they're doing their filings as you're saying you know it's in my opinion it's
the same with the fed like what they say is a lot different from what they're doing in their filings, as you're saying. In my opinion, it's the same with the Fed. What they say is a lot different from what they're doing.
So a lot of these headlines are really there to scare you most of the time.
But if you look under the radar, it's a smash and grab type of play, right?
To do these short reports on headlines, bombastic headlines, cause a dip,
hover, and they move on.
They clip their coupon and move on.
I just don't think – look, to your point, Sam, and I'll shut up,
is I don't think there's anyone in the history of the markets that's run a short strategy based
on overvaluation that stays in the markets that long. It doesn't work. You can't short on valuation
alone. Yeah, you can get lucky from time to time if you do grab the money and go. But yeah, there's
no way that they're waiting till $40 or. They actually believe in that $40 price target.
It's all just noise.
Yeah, they definitely come out and be loud.
I thought they said recently that they were done short selling.
I don't know.
Interesting times, interesting days.
We all revert to the mean.
We all revert to the mean. That was always their their core strategy he can't help himself from shorting but and i didn't mean to cut you
off sam i know you were going on another direction so my apologies no it's all good it's all good i
i'm i'm done i'm good man appreciate it blue what i want to ask you though i i you kind of learned
some people up here and i know what stocks they end up talking about over time and we can kind
of ask them about it give me a give me me a one or two categories that you enjoy talking about
the most. And we could you could talk to one or two of those names right now. But what areas do
you look into the deepest? I've always been a tech guy, right? So just kind of came up in the
markets through Morgan Stanley and realized the most alpha generation happens as an individual investor, mainstream investor in kind of small and micro caps, tech focused. I think tech has been a, you know,
I'd argue that every stock in the market is a tech stock because I don't care what they're doing.
They're using tech in their stack somewhere to run their business. So I think tech's the most
pervasive trend that's in the market. So I've always been a top down, bottom up guy, which means
I talk about Apple, Alphabet, all the mag seven names. And so I got Alphabet, I really think has
been mispriced in this market because of regulatory fears. If you look at it, I mean,
they keep putting up results, right? They had a great quarterly report, shocked everyone how well
search was doing because AI was supposed to put out a business search and now had a nice run off
the bottom. And now everyone's trying to come out and say search and now had a nice run off the bottom.
And now everyone's trying to come out and say, well, maybe those search numbers were
driven by AI that we don't even understand and that they're really getting disrupted.
I think it's still an opportunity there.
But then I like small caps because I think there's just a lot of mispricings there.
You can do the work and find opportunities.
So, you know, I don't, not any specific small cap right now today that I think is a screaming
bargain that you got to get into.
But I do think for people that are looking to trade trends,
like the Russell last week tried to have a massive breakout.
There's record short.
And so you had two days last week where it was up over 2%,
the Russell 2000 IWM ETF, and then got clapped back on PPI data.
But the growth in the Russell 2000, we talk about
earnings growth and people trying to get ahead of valuations. The aggregate Russell 2000 growth
over the next two years for earnings is going to be north of, I think, 40%.
If you stylistically look at it, Russell small cap growth stocks versus value, it's even higher.
So there's a huge earnings growth story that's going to come into play there once we get rates cut.
And I think biotech is going to have its comeback, too.
So if you look at the XBI, there's a lot of individual names in the biotech space that we're trading below cash values.
But that's a tough game. That's a specialist game.
So I think I play it with the XBI and then I look for individual names because they can stay down for a long time, a long time holding a mind that's been
completely underwater. That's actually curing certain types of cancer, head and neck cancer
specifically. It's keeping people alive 36 months and longer when they only stay alive by about six
months on standard of care with E-Truda is Q-Biopharma, CUE, but there's no urgency to go
rush out and buy it yet. They're still in like phase one
trials, but they just started a trial in glioblastoma, which is a nasty drug, nasty brain
cancer that really standard of care just extends life by maybe 14 weeks. So if Q's drug, Q102,
actually works in glioblastoma, that stock can turn and turn in a hurry. But that's the thing with biotech.
I mean, I had a position in Viking and it was down 50% at the open yesterday. So you have to
invest with speculative capital in those. But yeah, I'm always following biotech,
life sciences, so med device, and then it's mostly tech related. And then I got into energy
as well. So if you look at the energy sector, it generates the most profit per employee.
So it's the biggest cash flowing profit generating industry,
but it's also the most undervalued sector in the S&P 500.
So I think that's a place.
And recently Insider has been buying a lot.
So I think it's another area to look for opportunities
when everyone's talking about valuations getting stretched.
Nice, Luke, I appreciate you being here. getting stretched. Nice.
I appreciate you being here. We're getting up to the market
close. We're about nine minutes.
We'll circle back in on a couple
of those. I don't think we have any earnings
coming up after the close.
For some reason, I was signed out of my calendar.
Nah. Nothing really that people care
about. We've got Stock Talk coming back up. Nah, nothing really that people care about. We got stock talk coming back up.
Lou, definitely feel free to jump back in on the conversation as we continue forward and
everyone else. Someone just told me, it was questioned me why there's no small cap worth
buying. Maybe, maybe clarify that. I didn't like today and yesterday, there's nothing that's
jumping off my screens where I have to get in. I mean, there's some names, small cap names that I really love
that have become mid caps,
like Symbotic and Tempus AI.
I mean, just moving up the market cap.
But right now, today,
I think just the opportunity is more
than just buying the ETF
or maybe some options on the ETF
for the Russell 2000,
just because I think it's undervalued.
And there's about 21 billion
in hedge fund debts short against the Russell 2000. so i think there's a big squeeze potential there
yes we did hear your stock talk by the way um cool wolfie i want to bring you into the conversation
what's up buddy how we feeling hello you want me to talk
about your left if you want to keep coming in keep piling on not a left fan beefed with him
personally about a decade ago i met him uh don't like him um have a couple of people that i know
personally that he's stiffed you know for some research some research work. So I'm not a fan.
Hope he gets what he deserves.
That's me being nice.
Outside of that, like, yeah, Apple.
We talked about Apple yesterday.
I was looking forward to be rolling over.
And got it. So I covered most of my short for the – just a small little short, a little nibble.
Bought some stuff today.
Caught some of that Palantir move just for trade options front um what else did we do got got a little bit of that nvidia soon
that reclaimed 170 took a shot worked out um and then i i'd like this hymn set up for a trade if it holds this 200 day so that like 40 point whatever give or take
looks good looks good for a shot uh just like a little bit of a mean reversion stock's gotten
beaten up um i think it's down like 46 percent in the last few weeks um had a lot of headlines
earnings everything yeah since uh july 31st it it's down about 44% peak to trough.
So yeah, I like that one.
I bought a little bit of TSSI, a little data center-driven.
Stock gave up another one, gave up 58% in a matter of like 10 days or something like that.
Back into its 200-day, into day into its trend really really nice setup
um if it could hold just gives you like a good risk reward to trade against
and uh in terms of this i took a flyer just on some options calls on serepta um i bought that
one a few i think like a month ago,
whenever it was,
whenever it flushed out,
bought it like 12,
was a beneficiary of a headline,
sold out at like the majority of the position.
I had August 15 calls.
They closed out last week.
So I didn't,
I didn't roll any of them.
I just bought some Lottos today
because the setup looks good for,
you know,
maybe you just pop through this inverse head and shoulders. But that i think um i think you know if you're pressing your bets into
things that are selling off aggressively like i saw the headlines today saying like palantir
hits correction territory or whatever the fuck it's called so it's down 20%. And, you know, I think if you're pressing your bets short there,
you're kind of playing the wrong game.
And then conversely, if you're chasing stuff that's up like 40%
in a matter of moments, then you're playing the wrong game.
I think obviously people are on pause for Jerome Powell's, you know,
Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
I don't think Powell's going to really
give much. I think he's
going to kind of do the data dependent thing.
I don't think there's a net
benefit either way.
When I was
sitting at this market today,
looking at what was going down and up at least
earlier, it looked like a market that was absorbing
less rate cuts
this year. And the CME FedWatch tool was doing that a little bit but that's that was the vibes
yeah um you know i we've had the conversation before i'm on the one cut camp um if it's two
i think they'd do it in one meeting but from here i think it's got to be like the data's got to
really deteriorate in my opinion. I think for me,
I'm kind of looking at some of this like reflation stuff.
Some of these guys talked about it before me,
you know,
for the last couple of weeks,
I've been poking around in this energy play,
been poking around some of these majors,
bought some Valero a few weeks ago.
It's working out a little bit right now.
Bought some Chevron recently,
like the way some of these setups look
like if you just look at look at the setups on like oxy conical phillips uh and some of these
other names they're it's like a really tight big wedge that's like down some of these downturns
like two years right so it's it's coming to an inflection point soon who knows if it'll it'll
play out to the upside or not,
but the setup's there.
And some of these implied volatilities
are low enough to where you can take shots.
And then some of these moves
that have been suppressed for so long are good enough.
I mean, just take a look at some of these solar names
in the last few weeks.
Similar kind of thing.
I took First Solar, I think, a week and a half ago.
Got a headline last week, which popped it's not it's not whether or not that the you know the
the timing of it's it's that once you get once you get the resolution outside of these like major
downtrends the move is violent so the asymmetry is in your favor so i see a lot of same similar stuff
in energy and I do think that
there is like a cyclicality tailwind that's going to come there, in my opinion, because I think
people kind of expected that inflation would cool off significantly. And I do think we do have
inflation cooling in some spots. But I also think that there was a camp to thought,
we're going to get this like recession. And if we do get a recession, I don't think it's going
to be like your traditional one, where, you know get a recession, I don't think it's going to be like your traditional one where,
you know,
activity completely dies down.
I think it's going to be kind of like this weird stagflationary one.
If you get it,
I don't know,
but different conversation,
different day.
The,
the point,
the point of all this is you got,
you got stocks that are trading back into setups against like 200 days
against like 50 days.
In some cases.
Palantir, for example, knife right through it this morning,
kind of trapped a little bit of the chase.
I think it's going to close above its 50 day.
I'm not sure.
Let me just check so I don't misspeak.
But yes, if it's going to close above its 50 day,
basically that's your bull bear line for now.
If you're bullish, you want to see it kind of hold there and then you get like you know on the back of some of these sell-offs corrections whatever
term you want to use you get like a really wide dislocation from near near-term prices
a near-term price action near to near-term moving averages midterm and long-term moving averages so
the 20 and 5 day are about 10% higher on Palantir, right?
From right now, not from this morning.
From this morning is like meaningfully lower.
So it was about 18% from the 20 and five days.
So it'll tell you how dislocated it got really quickly.
It kind of gives you an opportunity for that mean reversion setup, right?
So plenty of ways to skin a to cat lack of a better,
euphemism.
you can either try to find the ones that got like really aggressively sold
in a very short period of time and kind of get dislocated from their shorter
term moving averages and try to play for a bounce.
If that's your game,
you can find the stuff that's,
you know,
like Sam was talking about that there was,
the rotation into value rotation to,
uh, uh, I would say like the, the yield-sensitive names, right?
Like rotation and stuff that pays you to be in it, the boomer names.
And while he was talking, another one was XLF,
which was making eyes at the session while he was talking.
I don't know where it's at right now, but similar kind of concept, right? You want to be in stuff that kind of pays you.
That's not tech heavy, that the multiples aren't,
aren't extreme in some cases.
And that's kind of where they were conditioning this morning.
So it gives you that setup.
It also gives you some of these setups of like, you know,
if you've been waiting around, like I, like for,
I'm just going to use hims, for example,
if you've been waiting around to trade hims and you felt like you missed it,
you missed it, you missed it.
It came right back to not this most recent earnings but the one before it came right back down to that
uh earnings move gap which was like at 38 to 40 pretty much today and that's where your 200 day
is so you kind of have this like bull bear lying in the sand you could trade against you know i
mentioned tssi is one i took um and then there's like story stocks right so like you guys were covering all of the all
the the US government investment stuff I don't way the market just closed closed
down a quarter of a percent right quarter was a little fly going on some
call it not palantir I thought I than it was. A little flying V going on, some could call it. A lot better than it was.
Palantir, I thought it wanted to close green.
We'll see what that ends up meaning tomorrow, but yeah.
Market did just close, no real earnings
after. And then, you got
Walmart tomorrow for what it's worth, so we'll see
what they have to say about the consumer on the low end.
Target was, like, a little bit better
than feared, but there was some stuff that they
said that wasn't ideal.
And then the the last
thing on the on the uh oil front i just kind of want to pay attention to there's there's there's
a report this morning where uh u.s troops were just kind of patrolling the off the coast of the
i think it was venezuela just kind of want to pay attention to it.
Not from a fear perspective, none of that stuff,
but there was some bars going back and forth.
You know, it's probably just like a piss and match,
but worth watching.
Also worth watching the Russia-Ukraine resolution.
So just a little bit of something for everybody.
Ideally, we talked about it yesterday. Ideally, you get Apple that,
you know, if this sell off isn't crazy, just goes back to the 200 day old gives people an opportunity one way or the other. And then business as usual, but we'll see how it plays
out. Like I said, I'm out. And then the last one, you know, just kind of gives you the froth of it.
Some of these IPO flyers that we talked about, that I talked about,
we talked about all the time, they've been getting destroyed.
Take Figma, for example, recently.
Take CoreWeave as one.
They're coming up on important spots.
And some of the charts have been been some of the charts were constructive
today so figma for example had or not figma excuse me corwee for example today had a uh effectively
a 50 retrace off of the the highs that it made um and then had some bottom fissures there see if it
means anything see if it's just like some short covering but those types of setups like those types of names generally when they when they when they base some some and then they reverse the
reverse is a little bit violent doesn't mean that the the trend has changed just that intermediary
reversal becomes violet and uh so i'm just kind of paying attention there especially since some of the
implied volatility has gotten destroyed on some of these names to the upside.
So that's,
that's it for me.
If you've got any questions,
happy to answer.
I appreciate you,
sir.
And definitely feel free to join in on the conversation.
NASDAQ post back-to-back losses is tech name slides.
I just want to read through some of the stuff. If's any interesting like closing facts or whatever. What was this?
The sixth red day for Palantir in a row? Again, looks a lot worse a couple hours ago than it does
now. So I think that some of the, you know, a lot of the Palantir bulls are not taken today as too
big of an L. Bostick had some comments during Power Hour talking about crypto.
I thought him saying crypto is too small to put financial stability in play.
I thought the crypto bulls would like that.
We also had Sam Altman.
A story came out.
This might have been earlier that he said that they messed up the launch of Chachi BT5.
I didn't really see too deep into the rollout.
But Roy, I did see that you unmuted a little earlier um when we were starting there i forget what it was for though i like figma though i hope figma keeps
falling so i'd love to i got allocated one share on that ipo at 33 bucks and if it falls back to
33 i'm very happy to add there instead of selling my silly one share.
I didn't sell my Figma share, and I got 19 shares of bullish, which I didn't sell either at this point.
Yeah, the whole flipping rules and whatever, and we'll see.
Also, I've talked about this on the Spaces, but bullish, the way that the IPO would give me a lot more allocation to retail shareholders.
I hope it does well. We'll see.
Yeah, yeah.
But I got one share of, yeah.
I got a chunk of shares too.
Same thing.
I'm not, that one I don't plan to hold long term.
I think it's nice, but I mean, I have Robinhood that is kind of my crypto proxy play instead that I prefer.
And I have crypto too.
So I'll sell that once we get outside of the penalty window.
Figma though though i really like
the name actually uh while we while i was listening to you guys talk i was working on
something like figma too so i like the product like the name i just don't like the valuation so
keep tanking baby give me some of that figma
we have any sigma users up here you never know i know uh Wolf goes in and use it, but a lot of people building
stuff. If they work in tech,
they use it. Yeah.
Bullish,
I'm sure we got no users of. I believe that
is just like institutional stuff, so
I don't know.
I do not know.
Urkel, you've been hanging out with us for
a while up here.
How are you doing, sir?
I'm doing good.
How are you?
I'm doing well.
I'm doing well.
How are you feeling on this market?
I've been listening to the traders.
A lot of downside talk.
We appreciate, by the way, Roy for being here.
You should make sure you're checking out him.
Make sure you're following all the other amazing speakers up here.
They are fantastic.
And if you missed any part of what they were saying,
this whole space is recorded.
So you can go back and listen to any parts of it.
Especially if someone said something smart
and you missed who they were and who said it,
you can go in, listen to the recording, find that spot.
We start at 3 p.m. Eastern,
so you can kind of go from there on if it was like 20, 30 minutes in or whatever
and find who that was.
But Roy, a lot of the other people up here are fantastic and we appreciate them for joining in.
We'll see.
We appreciate them for hanging out with us on these spaces.
Yeah, Urkel though.
I'm curious on what you were watching today.
What was on your radar?
I know you're more of an active, shorter-term trader.
So, trader.
I said that a little weird, I feel like.
I don't know what was on your radar, what you were doing.
What were you even watching this week?
Yeah, I actually had a pretty good day.
You know I kind of take a liking to crypto and crypto plays.
And last week when I was on the show, we talked about Bitcoin breaking out
to a new all time high. And I talked about that weird thing Bitcoin likes to do on the show where
it tends to make an all time high and then drop. And of course, that's exactly how it played out.
And it dropped down to that $112k area and held, which is really important.
That's been support from the end of July onward.
So that was a critical hold and it's bounced back into the $114s.
And Ethereum, I posted a chart on this as well.
We talked about it when it broke $4k.
We were looking at it up to that $4,800 area where it rejected and dropped.
Perfectly normal after a significant rip to the upside. ethereum held the 20-day ema yesterday and it's had a pretty significant
bounce off of it today and when we were talking about ethereum a couple weeks ago i discussed
bmnr which was tom lee's kind of project if you will and that took off from 30 up to 70 and has had a significant pullback.
So I've been adding back to BM&R with the anticipation and hope, fingers crossed,
that Ethereum would hold around that 20 EMA and the 4000 level. So BM&R is working on a turnaround.
I've got that on watch for further accumulation if it can hold the 44 to 50 range, which was my dip by target zone.
I'm still in iron.
I still like this play just as one of my proxies or miners that I kind of been playing off of this $19 area.
That's got a potential breakout if it can hold above $19.
And it's been dancing around that level for about a month or so.
And we got to close over $19 today, which was important.
So if crypto kind of takes off tomorrow, then I'd watch those two names for a potential push.
those two names for a potential push.
Bitcoin does need to push through $114.3k in order to kind of gain a little upside momentum,
if you will.
Ethereum needs to push through this $4,350, $4,400 area to gain some momentum.
And from a broader market perspective, I mean, SPY, the drops can be uncomfortable, but all it really did was drop down to the 20 EMA, you know, and test somewhat below it and bounce back.
And we really only had one daily close below the 20 EMA, which was back on the 1st of August.
And that bounced back sharply and we made new all-time highs.
So we haven't actually had a daily close below the 20 EMA,
I think going back to about April or so.
So, you know, the dip today was uncomfortable
and of course the high beta names always get hit the hardest
and they've also been running the hardest.
So it's no surprise to get proportionate pullbacks too.
But overall,
the structure market-wide is holding. The queues did close below the 20 EMA.
They did bounce back off this 558, 563 level. That's a big pivot and a key area to hold for a potential bounce. No surprise to see tech kind of drop a little harder on pullbacks than, you know,
other sectors. So not entirely worried about the structure there, but kind of keeping an eye on it.
That too has only had one previous daily close below the 20 EMA also on August 1st, and it bounced
back to make a new all-time high as well. So we did get our second close below the 20 EMA
since I think April on both of these.
So kind of being cautious here.
But if anything, like options Mike suggested earlier today,
this market has been resilient
and it has shaken off a ton of negative news.
So watching for potential bounces,
but with Powell coming up and what he may
say I'm certainly being a little more cautious I think what was it two three years ago when Powell
spoke at Jackson Hole during a period where the market was rallying and for those of you who were
around a few years ago you would remember the the market went into a steep decline after the jackson hole presser i think we had like
a significant two three four week pullback after he spoke so i do wonder if some of that might
potentially be spooking the markets as well you know for particularly after the the run we've been
on since the tariff tantrum drop if you will so i'm cautious but i've been holding on to my swings
i've been adding where where i see opportunity like bm and r and crypto for example if we do
see a strong bounce i do like did you buy any i did i cannot lie i added today at uh 48.87 i had a little more my bmr class base is 41.83 very nice i added yesterday
just above 50 and today i had it pegged for i was hoping for a drop down to 44.46 area
it bounced and i kind of chickened out of adding on the bounce so i just decided to wait i didn't
trust today's bounce to be perfectly honest on, on Bitcoin, Ethereum and the markets.
I just wanted a little more direction, a little more confidence.
And I think we got that to a certain extent today.
But I'd love to see some follow through tomorrow.
So I'm in no rush to add it.
It does move violently.
And, you know, if I just get swinging what I'm holding, then that's fine with me, too.
And if I get to add some more, if it bases off the 40s, then great.
But yeah, my last ad was just over 50 yesterday.
So I'm down on that position right now because I did add at 54 as well on Friday.
But I'm pretty comfortable with that position, particularly with some of the success I've had on the miners figmas
actually that came up today that's a stock I traded today I added it off a
reclaim of the 69 level because it was actually trying to base yesterday I saw
some strength on it today so I added that off the 69 and I sold it at 74 I do
like to kind of jump in on these post IPO stocks when interest tends
to wane after the significant volatility over the first few days. So the chart has room on a
pullback down to the 40s. And this is just from a technical perspective. There are much smarter
people than me on the panel in terms of the fundamentals here.
But if it can break through 76 tomorrow, then this one could have a potentially significant upside move again.
I'm out of it for now.
I kind of took the win and ran for the hills, but that's what I'm watching tomorrow.
I also like the SoFi chart above the 2240 level where it closed today.
And it's been kind of basing and bouncing off 21 and under for about a month or so,
but it keeps rejecting the breakout level over 2450. It had a pretty decent drop today,
but it bounced back to close at the 20 EMA as well. And this is another
one that hasn't given up the 20 EMA for a few months. So as long as it holds the 22s tomorrow,
I'm going to look for a potential trade on that to see if it can bounce back and retest the 24s.
A name I'm very interested in there, Rocket Labs as well. It's been trending down
since earnings, but it landed at some major
support today and bounced and put in a nice little hammer candle in today. I've been hesitant to add
this one, but if it can hold the mid-high 30s and a lower end of 40, that's one I'm interested
in adding as well and playing a potential bounce on. I had a few on my list. Wolf is another one.
That's one I was looking at trading today. I missed the entry on that, but that one is a breakout
candidate over $9.30 or so, $9.30 or so. And it had a nice bounce off the 5 VMA today, but it closed
right at $9.28. So if Bitcoin and Ethereum do follow through and they haven't yet, they've kind of rallied
into resistance and dropped.
If they do follow through, then I do think there are some tradable stocks tomorrow and
going into the Powell speech in the crypto sector that could have significant upside
moves.
But, you know, follow through, as we all know,
is everything. So those are a few stocks I'm keeping an eye on. And last one is Nebius.
I've been watching this for a dip buy since earnings. It's got a big gap down to 55 or so,
I think, 56 on the daily chart. And I lost track of it today. I've been waiting to add a starter
on it. It partially filled the gap and bounced right off the 20 EMA today. I've been waiting to add a starter on it. It partially filled the
gap and bounced right off the 20 EMA today. So it dipped down to about 62 actually, and it ripped
back to close at 67. So I do feel like I might have kind of missed the boat on that one, but I've
been watching this one for a buy. I'm not sure it'll fully fill the gap. Certainly a stock with a lot of interest on the streets.
So watching it, but that's one I've been kind of eyeballing for a potential reversal for some time as well.
But I totally missed the dip buy and the entry today.
So just some of the things I'm keeping an eye on.
And I did actually have a question for Stock Talk on Intel.
I was very interested in the conversation on Intel.
And I was just wondering what he or others on the panel thought of the $2 billion stake
by SoftBank in this at the $23 valuation as well, just as a kind of added piece to the
puzzle on this one.
Because I do like the chart
on a weekly. It's built a year long base in that 20 to 25 range like Stock Talk was talking about.
And we know that breakouts out of year long ranges or bases can be pretty aggressive. So I've been
watching that for a breakout over about 25, 60, 2626. I just wonder if that SoftBank $2 billion stake in Intel changed StockDocs or others' perspective on Intel going forward.
For me, it's a $100 billion company.
So I didn't really think about that too much.
Copy that.
So that's significant of a stake.
I mean, I guess you could think maybe it's strategically significant if you value that.
But no, I didn't give it too much consideration.
But I agree.
The weekly looks good.
I agree with that.
I think the monthly, there's obviously a lot of work to do.
But the weekly, I think, looks good.
It's not a position that I'm currently considering.
But I can see why people want to try to call bottom here like i don't think it's a terrible call you know it's
it's basically built an effective multi-month bottom around 1850 to 19 so you could operate
with that as like a floor for now um and yeah i i don't like i i never discourage people from
making trades that they think you know
They can do well on of course if you think if you think there's signs of a bottoming here
I would agree with that. I think there are signs of that technically and
It could absolutely make a monster run. I mean if it breaks 2750 it could easily go to back to the 30s
agreed so
Yeah, it could make an explosive move. I agree
If I'm not in it right now, I haven't really considered it, but yeah, it could make an explosive move i agree um if i'm not in it right now or i haven't really
considered it but yeah it could yeah great and that was it for me just kind of the stocks i'm
watching um the crypto sector you know encouraging bounces today um but again we have to differentiate
between relief bounces and trend changes and with the queues still closing below
the 20 EMA, I'd still like to see strength there. SPY did hold and Bitcoin and Ethereum did hold
key support levels. So if markets wanted to turn around, this would be the spot. And again, I think
a lot of it's going to depend on what Thursday and Friday bring in terms of daily and weekly
structure in the markets
and what Powell might say
before a seasonally weak September month.
So just kind of where my head's at,
I'm managing some swings.
I haven't taken anything with size this week.
I'm kind of nibbling around some of my swings
and taking trades like Figma today,
capitalizing on the drops and pops while I can and waiting for further direction from the markets before I can confidently take new swings with size
Good stuff man
Good technical analysis there on the oral our names
so it's just there on the whole our names so
did he cut out let's hear me no now we can okay sorry um last thing I didn't
tell there real quick I was actually just flipping through the chart zooming
in a little more than I was earlier the daily actually looks really nice too i mean
you popped over the 200 day on high volume last couple weeks and then you have this sort of
weird pullback where we pull back into 23 you pop back to 26 and now pull back to 23 today but
either way held the daily 90ma that whole time and you have basically massive moving moving average stacking
right below the price right you have like the 200 days at 2169 the 50 days at 2198 the 21 ema is at
2229 like between 21 to 23 you have basically all the moving averages stacked so that's i mean that's
a nice daily look too frankly speaking if you know we're just being objective here i don't love intel as a
business uh obviously i've made a lot of comments about why i think they're uncompetitive but
technically speaking you know from to urkel's point the daily and weekly both look pretty nice
actually so i agree with you i i personally added a little bit today at 23 60s but i'm speculating a
bit i think if you're a breakout trader, you want to wait for
strength above kind of that 2627 level, because every move above 2526 going back to last summer
has basically sold and dropped down into the mid low 20s or down to that 18 area. So it's still
stuck in a range. I just wonder with the change with the CEO
recently with the US government involvement and SoftBank, I just wonder if there's enough of
a turn or, you know, shift in the tide to get investors interested in whether or not this
chart could potentially meaningfully break out of a year longlong base so i added i'm speculating on this personally
it has not broken out it's not close to a breakout where it sits right now
100 000 share order just went through on intel right now actually after hours
but i've been kind of keeping an eye on it and i've taken a bit of a speculative position on it
just want to see how this one plays out but structurally speaking it does look pretty good but on a weekly candle
it is putting in a rejection candle again this week so would love to see it above the mid-20s
but certainly has my interest down here.
I see Kevin and Kirk joined us up here.
What's going on, guys?
I guess we'll go to Kevin first.
I think Kevin was first.
Yeah, I just want to – well, Kurt was first.
I just wanted to comment on Intel just real, real quick.
It does look like an evening star pattern, though, on the daily, right,
with that shooting star yesterday.
You kind of got this. It's like coming back and testing that confluence of moving averages that you talked about i think it's what
21 or so probably would give you some confidence of a better entry but i mean yeah that depends
right it kind of just depends i mean if you're here for pinching pennies for it you know i mean
if you're trading size you know what i sat down and realized today, though? It's Intel.
This is not the winner.
This is not... It just isn't the winner.
I'm taking this rally to get out of my long term,
if I'm being real.
Yeah.
It's trying. It's trial.
It's good.
You're welcome, everybody.
Yeah, I would just say watch that pattern. I i mean uh but i mean it's only what another
buck in order you hit like some key areas of support with all that confluence of the moving
averages so if you're speculating i mean once again it's gotta yeah it's gotta get above 2750
before you can really start talking about maybe a turnaround, right? Like that's the top of that range. Yeah, straight up breakout, yeah.
Yeah, that's what you need.
And so, I mean, because look at the last time we were up here, right?
Like the price just floated all the way back down to 17,
and then we had, you know, a couple more attempts,
and now we're getting another one.
Albeit, I will say, though, the volume profile on this thing
in the past week was better than the last few attempts
you know although actually in february it was pretty good too so now i don't know you know
you have a point you could probably get a better entry on it um i would be surprised to see it go
below 21 28 though i'd be surprised if we go by that 100 month. If you look at the weekly and wait for the weekly MACD to break out officially,
break out to the upside, it's very close, right?
Like 12 EMA is above the 26, and we're talking about the weekly.
12 EMA is above the zero line.
Wait until the 26 gets above the zero line, which, I mean,
if it elevates at this level, let's say $23 for next
week, most likely it'll push through. That'll be a pretty decent signal. If you kind of look at the
past, that's kind of where you get these pretty decent run-ups. When you have that MACD cross,
it happened back in what? June of 2023. Once it started to cross, you had a power candle the next
day, consolidated, and then it started and proceeded to move a power candle the next day consolidated and then it
started and proceeded to move up to around 51 so it's it's pretty close there you just need to have
it you just don't want it to give it up and if you wanted to get it up give it up and you know
take a shot and you know by all means but who knows evan this could be your turnaround story
we've seen stocks in the past have you know been under love for a very long time apple was
like that at some point i don't think people remember that but apple was a dog stock for a
bit before it actually started getting uh a little bit more interesting it was dog stock for a very
long time um so you never know this could be your apple i'm kind of joking but you never know. This could be your Apple. I'm kind of joking, but you never know.
I sold today. I'm out. I'm out.
Fuck the bend the knee trade. I'm still in my bend the knee trade.
I've been rolling up those calls. Right now I'm in Intel 27s.
Now they're at five cents for the week.
And maybe I'll re-enter into it.
But this is a trade for me.
And it definitely is.
And I've used it to get out of some of my long-term position.
Because Intel is... The good thing Intel has going for it that a lot of other names don't is they are in the right category.
They are in the right segment.
There is a rising boat tides lifting all boats here.
You can fall upwards.
You probably don't want to short Intel because no matter how bad they are, their industry is deemed important enough that the government would consider taking a stake in it.
So, you know, I'm not in here shorting it, but when I get excited about the future, I'd rather have that money in Q2Q.
It's being real.
If you get a refresh cycle on personal computers, right, laptops, things of that nature, right? Laptops, things of that nature, right?
If the CPU space within AI actually gets some love
and deserves a premium,
then Intel will definitely shine, right?
Hewlett-Packard is going to be another one
that's going to shine.
Just everybody cares about data centers right now.
No one cares about personal compute.
So if and or when that cycle does happen,
we were kind of talking about this yesterday, right?
Once you get smaller models,
as far as the total memory that's needed,
once you get smaller models that are actually just as efficient
in some respects or even more efficient
than what we have right now,
and that gains traction within the, you know,
the retail space and the consumer space.
And then Intel is going to be a beneficiary.
But until that happens, you know, it's going to be a tough trip.
Tough trades, tough trades.
I will say though, Kirk has been up here for like an hour.
Yeah, Kirk, let's get you in here.
He'll win that time game.
Although you could jump in at any point.
So only so much sympathy, but we appreciate you being here, Kirk.
I like listening to Kevin if you want to go that route.
No, you can come in and we'll go around.
We got time.
All right.
Well, hey, can I tell Andrew Left's story?
I guess that's what today is.
So back when I was with MarketWatch, I got solicited to write short pieces on MarketWatch.
And they offered me pretty good money.
And I told my editor, and he said they didn't offer enough.
So I never did it.
I had a big stake in a company called Exact Sciences.
It's still out there.
I think ARK Investments has been in and out of it in the last couple of years.
But I was buying that stock at a buck and a half, two bucks, three bucks.
And at some point, Andrew left, wrote a hit piece on it after a rally.
And I wrote a counterpoint piece over at Seeking Alpha when I was switching over there.
And ultimately, there was a little bit of contact.
I will say this.
I ended up making about a million bucks on exact sciences
over two different big trades,
which has seeded the last eight years of my career.
I will try to be very diplomatic here.
I think that there is the potential
that Citron Investments has been lax with their regulatory
compliance and ethics. And I'll just leave that there. As far as his short on Palantir,
I think it was a valuation play. I think it was a technical play. And I think he wanted to brag
about it. I take a look at Palantir and I was one of the people who bought it under 10 bucks a share.
And then I was hyper stupid and I sold sold it at $30 and $40.
So I only tripled and quadrupled pieces of my money.
I wish I had held it to over $100.
In my head, I was saying I should hold it to $100, and I didn't.
I think if Palantir continues to grow the way that they have been,
and I think the state of the world is that they will.
If you take a look at their sustainable growth rate,
at about $150 a share, give or take,
they are roughly fair value
for what their earnings would project out
to be about five years out.
And in five years, there's so much fudgibility.
That means they could be a little overvalued
or a little undervalued based on five years, there's so much fudgeability. That means they could be a little overvalued or a little undervalued based on five years out.
If that stock would fall under 100, I'd be super, super interested.
If that stock fell down to 40, 50, 60, I think that would indicate one of two things.
Either the world is going to hell, in which case I buy it, or somehow Palantir got disrupted
and then you have to
understand that and move away. I think the odds of Palantir being disrupted are pretty slim.
So that might just mean that there's a macro event, in which case Palantir is in my top 20 ideas list.
So if macro gives me a chance to buy Palantir under 100, oh my gosh, am I buying a lot of that stock.
So on to the macro.
Neil Duda, Duda?
I'm not sure how you say it over at Renaissance Macro.
He's probably the economist Duda.
Yes.
I think he's brilliant.
I think that I try to understand the world the way that he does.
And I certainly come up short.
However, he identified that consumer spending was starting to get kind of thin and, you
know, starting to trend down several months ago.
Back in February, when I went to Vegas and I think I hit four cities, I said the same thing.
I thought it was lightening up, but I thought it could be seasonal.
Well, then, you know, I haven't been around much this summer with you guys because I've just been screwing off a lot.
And I went to the World Series of Poker.
I lost some money.
I saw Vegas in June when it's supposed to be just rip-roaring busy, and it was not.
Vegas in June when it's supposed to be just rip-roaring busy, and it was not. There was one
Saturday night where at midnight, you know, the Horseshoe Casino floor, and I started at MGM,
so I went through four casinos to get there. All the casino floors were slow, and if you're taking
a look, what's really happening in Vegas is that two things. One, I don't think the Millennials
and Gen Zers think of it the way that boomers and Xers did.
You know, we would go two, three, four, five times a year.
I have an event in Las Vegas, and God, I hate Vegas.
The time zone sucks.
I don't love gambling that much.
I'm just going to lose money.
Vegas stinks.
Well, then I have a recommendation for you in one moment.
Stock Talk loves it, though.
Stock Talk, did you know
Stock Talk only goes to the high-rise
tables there?
Yeah, it goes to the top floor.
Evan just makes up random stuff
and says it to the audience
and then people believe it and they DM me.
People DM me, they were like, do you really
love KFC? And I was like, no.
You're not.
Damn, what's wrong with KFC? Evan've been just told people i love kfc and
red lobster and so now people will dm me and they're like people will dm me pictures of red
lobster they're like dude i'm at red lobster i'm like dude i have not eaten a red lobster in like
12 years so so i've had breakfast with you once i would not believe that you like KFC. Too busy?
I don't dislike.
If somebody gave me KFC, I wouldn't eat it.
But there's other fried chicken I prefer.
I live in Dallas.
I'm not going to eat KFC.
There's great fried chicken in Dallas.
Why would I eat KFC?
But anyway, people are just, they'll just message me stuff and be like,
yeah, dude, I'm at Red Lobster tonight.
I thought you'd appreciate it.
So anyway, I don't like Red Lobster for all the people that actually believe that.
All right. Listen, don't
hate on Red Lobster.
I haven't eaten it in so long.
I can't even tell you what
the quality is like now.
I thought they went on a boost.
They did, but they didn't.
Chapter 11 is bullish in 2025 or in
2020, as if you didn't know.
They chapter 11 and then they got some new CEO,
and now they – apparently he's been doing pretty good.
I don't know.
But, like, he's reinvented the menu.
People are keeping you updated?
Huh?
They're keeping you updated?
No, I don't know, dude.
People send me stuff about fucking Red Lobster now.
So I've just passively found out about it.
But, yeah yeah apparently they have
some new young CEO and he's like been doing good I guess I don't I don't know
fucking no I don't know oh yeah no dude homeboy is like legit yeah yeah yeah
dude he's got yeah he looks like he's like 20 now what's the other restaurant
that's got a sponsor Come sponsor the spaces.
He was joking there.
Stock Talk loves Red Lobster.
Someone clipped this part, not the part before.
We are Red Lobster's Faces.
Come sponsor us.
Quick note on this, Dave.
Quick note on Greg.
Let's talk about some stocks.
Let's talk about some stocks.
Yeah, I got stocks for you.
Yeah, I got stocks for you.
Yeah, Kirk.
Let Kirk kind of go on the stock.
I usually get asked about Rocket Lab and ASC Space Mobile,
and somebody mentioned Rocket Lab today.
I think that both stocks, we trimmed those back when they were up at their highs,
Rocket Lab just
a couple of days ago.
But we've been selling cash secured puts on both of them as they come down.
They both could get to 30-ish, depending on if there's a macro correction or not, or if
there's a delay in launches or whatever, you know, space.
Things go wrong with space.
I mean, just take a look at the rockets that blow up once in a while.
So if those stocks come back to 30-ish, I think they're super attractive right around there, both of them.
And we've been selling cash-secured puts, the December cash-secured puts.
So four months out, a little longer than normal, and collecting pretty big premiums to give us net entries between 35 and 30.
So if people feel like they miss those,
you might have a chance to try to scale in by selling cash-secured puts
that have internal rates of return analyzed way over 40%.
So that's a pretty good way to use idle cash.
Intel, I've been selling cash-secured puts on that for months and months and months.
I took a starter position back at like 22.
And our net cost is about 19 after the expired puts.
And we had one assignment.
So the net cost after all the premiums is about 19.
Net cost after all the premiums is about 19.
We just sold like the day of the news of the Trump rumor, but not the SoftBank thing.
And so we sold the, I was just looking at it.
I think it's November, it's November, December.
I'll tell you exactly.
November 23 cash secured puts.
We got two bucks for them.
I don't know what they're going for now.
I'm sure it's pretty close.
My thesis on Intel is very simple.
We need them to survive.
Now, I don't know if that means that money ever passes to the shareholders.
And I'm probably pretty likely to sell a bunch of whatever it is I own on a FOMO.
And I just like collecting the premiums over and over again because the internal rates of return on selling the cash-secured puts,
with all the people speculating against it, are very, very high.
I think that's a lesson that people who are getting into options should learn.
And I think everybody who's been in options understands, is that speculation
drives the option premiums up a lot. So there are a lot of cases where being on the selling side of
an option is a lot better than being on the buying side, because you can just keep piling up,
you know, 40, 50, 60% annualized returns on some of these options that you get to sell to the people who
are speculating. It's like being the house. It's like being the casino instead of being the gambler.
And I really like that. Last one would be a Metis, which I have talked about for two years,
and I've just been breaking even on this one for two years with a big hunk of money.
A lot of the things that I thought were going to happen with the Medix,
a Medix, A-M-T-X, that I thought would happen a year or two ago after Biden set them up to win and California set them up to win and then they never followed through on their promises,
suddenly President Trump has done some really good things
with them in the tax bill that went through. And now the things that I thought would happen a year
or two are all seeming to be pretty imminent. So they have a big refinancing coming up.
In the last earnings call, they said it would happen this month or next month.
I always bet on next month. They have new tax credits coming that they are able to sell. This is one of the things that the
Trump tax code really helped them with. And I think that all the things that I've talked about
for two years on that company are finally happening. I know people go, oh, they only
have a couple bucks on the balance sheet. It doesn't matter. It all has to do with the financing.
So you want to understand the financing,
not the balance sheet.
And that means that if they can get the financing done,
okay, and I don't know that they can,
bad things happen,
but if they can get their financing redone
here in the next month or two,
that'll be huge.
And the tax credits that they're going to get
from selling their clean energy tax credits
will be a big deal. And if they can turn off the ATM, and this is why that stock keeps shopping,
is they have an ATM and they've been using it. If the refinancing and the tax credits for the
clean energy, mainly RNG, actually are enough that they can turn off the ATM, the short squeeze on this will be spectacular,
I think. So understand what's really going on there. The shorts have been able to just pound
on this stock because the ATM keeps letting them out for cheap. If the ATM shuts off,
just like when it shut off at, well, it wasn't an ATM.
It was the stock-based compensation at Palantir.
And this company is not going to do what Palantir did.
But it'll have the same sort of impact where there's not going to be enough shares floating around for shorts to keep doing what they do.
One other thing about short selling.
Is everybody aware that the rules are
supposed to change in February on short selling? So that's important. I think that if the shorts
have a day here this year or by early next year, presuming the rules really change and presuming
the court case doesn't get overturned on appeal. There are regulations coming, and there was a court case
that's going to make it very hard for short sellers
to get away with naked short selling.
And that's really why short sellers on these micro caps
and small caps get away with it,
is because they can pile on through trading rooms
and discord rooms and hedge funds
and everybody else that piles on
because there is really no policing of
naked shorting.
That is supposed to change in February.
It was supposed to change last February and it got delayed a year.
There was also a court case that held the brokerages liable for damages to companies
if they didn't police the naked short selling.
So you have it coming from the court side and you have it coming from the regulatory side that short selling might change dramatically in February. And I think
that is why firms like Hindenburg, who I think was a spectacular short company,
are getting out of the business. I think they see that it's going to be much harder to be a short seller come next year. And if we get QE or easy money, it'll be even harder.
So I am pretty inclined to buy the dips on all my top 20 or 30 ideas. And if we get a macro-driven
correction, then I think the easiest play out there is QQQ. So, you know, that's how I'm looking at the world.
That's what I thought about this summer after I lamented all the money I lost
at the World Series of Poker.
And I think that's it.
That's the fastest guy from Wisconsin can talk.
Very nice. I like it yeah sometimes you let's see let's see if uh what people want to say after i appreciate you uh you kirk for hanging out with us up here mr kirk all right the the i've i've
enjoyed the rocket lab one for a little more than the asts one and i can't lie uh i did for a little more than the ASTS one, and I can't lie. I did buy a little AMTX.
I added it to the watch list.
So we'll keep an eye on that one.
It's been honestly for a while.
We'll keep on getting some.
I have gotten a couple lending payments.
So like Robinhood has paid out my shares to other people.
So I have facilitated in the short of the stock a little bit.
Well, cut that out.
Sorry.
Cut that out. Well, hey, out. Sorry. Cut that out.
Well, hey, at least I'll make some money on it, you know?
If it goes up to 20, it'll make more.
Yeah, we'll see.
Let's see.
I'm watching.
Short interest is good for smid caps.
It's good for smid caps.
It accelerates free ratings and multiple expansion.
Most of the great entries I've ever gotten on smid cap stocks like,
you know, Nebius, Kratos, all those when I bought them to 300% lower, what they were,
they were highly shorted, and it accelerates re rating for smid cap stocks. To me, short
interest is operates completely differently in the smid cap universe with individual stocks
than it does with larger stocks. I like to see on a name if i'm
looking for an inflection on a name or in a catalyst on a name that i expect to produce a
big move i like to see some people off sides you know there's there's some stocks i'll enter on
catalyst there's actually been many this year that i've entered in this mid-cap world that
had 20 plus percent short interest when i got in. And that led to 30,
40 percent moves in the upside, not only due to the catalyst, but partially due to the short
covering as well. And it's sort of a double whammy for price to the upside as an accelerant.
And so you can get huge cushions on entries if you time an entry well, both technically and with,
you know, a market moving catalyst for an individual stock.
And it's much easier to move a sub 10 billion market cap on a catalyst or a partnership or
a thematic relevancy than it is to move 100 billion market cap, of course. So that's just,
I mean, that's just common sense. Yeah. Can we talk about the mechanics of that just real,
real quick too? Yeah. So because when you're looking at the aggregate of like a small cap, mid cap, and somebody wants
to short, they're usually going out and trying to search for shares. And usually you have smaller
investors, right, that you're trying to pull. You'll have a brokerage house that may have,
let's say 20,000 shares here, another brokerage house that says 50,000 shares here, blah, blah,
blah. They're able to at least, what you're supposed to do is at least be able to show
that there's a reasonable expectation
that you are able to locate shares
whenever you're shorting anything, right?
You gotta be able to do that.
I think the new rules that are gonna take place too
is that they have to report, if it's like like $10 million or more in the position, Kirk, I think they have to start reporting it to the SEC, which is not happening right now.
But they do. You do have to report certain short positions to Fenra, depending on the brokerage house. Right.
brokerage house, right? Now, when you have a larger cap stock, let's say at NVIDIA,
because they have bigger pools of investors, right? It's easier to one, locate shares. And then two,
in some cases, if you're working with a wire house, for that matter, let's say a Goldman Sachs,
JP Morgan, or what have you, and somebody wants to take a really big state, right? One of these
short selling firms or whatever, they say, hey, we want to do 500,000 shares of XYZ stock. They may have a big block investor that can cover that trade that
allows that trade to happen, right? So it's harder to squeeze that individual because when you're
locating a $500,000 or a 500,000 share or a million share block, right? You're probably
just borrowing it from just one individual or maybe two individuals.
Whereas the mid cap, as you were kind of talking about stock talk, you're basically gathering
twos and fused when it comes to the stock locates. And so it makes it really harder to be able to
short those names when you do get squeezed, because then you have, you know, you could get
called to be able to either deliver shares or what have you. So that's another reason why not only just from a float standpoint,
but just from like the back office standpoint,
it's just easier to find the big whale that's willing to allow you to short
against him and not really be squeezed out until that whale says, Hey,
guess what? I'm done. You know?
And then you're forced to look for other, locate other shares as well. So
I just wanted to compliment with you were saying. Yeah. And because they're thinner from a free
float market cap standpoint, right? Like from a dollar standpoint, not a share account standpoint,
then whenever they do start moving, people who are short in size are more compelled to cover quickly right as opposed to
like waiting out the cover because they know that price can move quickly on those things so
yeah yeah i agree there's a lot there's a lot of factors to drive it um i did want to touch on
um the story that came out today uh from on the espn app about the details so as a lot of you guys know especially those that listen
to these spaces i've been talking for months sort of about about this trade and i'll kind of recap
it shortly because i know some of you tune in all the time some of you don't do it all the time but
basically what's happening is there's a collision happening between disney and the NFL and ESPN, which is a subsidiary of Disney.
That started happening really a couple of months ago.
It started with a deal that a lot of people don't think is relevant to this, but it is,
which was an extension of the deal between Genius Sports and the NFL.
And I've talked about Genius Sports a lot. They're the exclusive data provider of the NFL and the Premier League and the PGA Tour and NCAA Sports and a bunch of other leagues.
But anyway, they signed an extension with Genius.
And then about three weeks later, stories started coming out that they were engaging in negotiations to sell their media, a large portion of their media business, really all of the popular content,
which is Red Zone, NFL Network, and the six most popular league-owned broadcasts, all
being sold in a bundle to Disney, who will house them under ESPN.
So they're really being sold to the ESPN subsidiary specifically in return for the
NFL taking a stake in ESPN.
Okay, so it's technically a stake in Disney,
but it's a stake directly in ESPN,
but ESPN is a subsidiary of Disney.
So anyway, so that's what's happening.
And people have been talking about Disney
and people are like, oh, you know,
maybe Disney will perform off this.
Maybe in the long term they have sports betting upside.
But I think there is going to,
the real beneficiaries are going to be
the spillover beneficiaries from this collision are going to be the spillover beneficiaries from this
collision are going to be the smid caps that surround this network.
So genius sports,
if you haven't heard my thesis on genius sports search from stock talk weekly
in your search bar,
ticker G and I,
you'll find the long ass posts that I wrote back in like end of June when the
stock was like nine 60,
it's like 12
something today. So it's gone up 25% ish since then, but I'm still in it full size. I haven't
sold any. Um, but anyway, genius is the obvious one because they're the exclusive data provider
for the NFL. Uh, and that includes all the data that's used on live broadcasts of the games. It's
the, it's what it's called. It's called the NFL master data feed. Okay.
And it's a low latency feed. It is the lowest latency feed of all NFL league data. Okay. And
so if you're a sports betting operation or a media operation who is going to show live games,
you need the lowest possible latency data, obviously, right? Because otherwise people
would exploit live bets. And this actually happens by the way, people would exploit live bets. This actually happens,
by the way, there's arbitrages, this is entirely irrelevant to this, it's just a random fun fact.
This happens with like Bovada and other like, quote unquote, international sports books that
have American clients that are like, you know, using them illegal, or quote unquote, illegally.
This happens with a lot of them where Americans who are live at the games are exploiting it because it doesn't register on the books because they're not using official league feeds.
This happens with a lot of them where Americans who are live at the games,
So somebody who's watching the game live and sees the goal happen bets on a live goal and then cashes out on an app that's not using a NFL master feed.
Because the app doesn't register the goal until a second after it happens and the
guys they're watching it live so you understand the principle of why an NFL master data league
feed is important um and some sports books skimp out on it but none of the major ones do none of
the major ones do they all use the master feed okay and now people are like oh well you know
people are talking about genius they're like oh well Talk, isn't this a risk to DraftKings and sports betting that Kalshi and Polymarket are getting into sports betting?
No, because if Kalshi and Polymarket want to offer live betting markets live, they will also have to use the NFL master data feed.
So it doesn't matter.
Even if in some imaginary scenario, betting markets
cannibalize all sports betting, which won't happen, but let's just imagine that they would
still use genius sports data. So no, it's not a risk. But anyway, that was just a side note on
genius. But genius is one of them, one of the beneficiaries of this collision, but I believe there are two others, and those are more recent ads for me too.
But I think both Fubo TV,
if the Disney merger goes through.
So Fubo earlier this year,
the very beginning of the year was $1.50 stock.
They announced a proposed merger with Hulu Live TV.
Fubo in this arrangement will own 30% of the joint venture. Disney will
own 70%. It's up to people's opinion on what Hulu Live TV is worth as a portion of Hulu.
Different analysts on the street have speculated different amounts. There are some that think it's
worth 10 plus billion. There are some that think it's worth less than 5 billion. So
go do the math if you're really interested in trying to determine evaluation for that. But
anyway, Fubo right now trades at like a 1.15 billion market cap. And the merger, the approval
vote for that merger is September 30th. I imagine, imagine it will be approved.
Now,
obviously if it's not approved,
the stock goes down a lot.
That's a risk and everyone should be aware of that.
But if it is approved,
it's tough for me to imagine a scenario where it's not worth more than,
you know,
1.15 billion.
I mean,
look,
the company's not growing anymore,
right?
But on the precipice of a merger with a Disney corporation entity that is going to be co-promoted on the new ESPN app and is going to have direct inference with the NFL network and Red Zone and six league broadcasted games, including the rumor today that ESPN is in talks to secure a deal with the MLB. If that happens too, then, you know,
if they get MLB network on top of that too,
then, I mean, it's just overlays, right?
And it's like, you have to decide
what you think the value of the ecosystem is to the company.
And to me, I think it's more valuable
than the market is currently pricing it at.
So that's the simple thesis there.
And I think this collision, again, they're a direct beneficiary of it. And then the third one I think is pretty straightforward So that's the simple thesis there. And I think this collision, again,
they're a direct beneficiary of it. And then the third one I think is pretty straightforward,
and that's Penn National, who runs the ESPN bet app. And they actually secured an exclusive
partnership with the Chicago Bears today too, which is a nice little, I guess, add on. But
Penn National runs the ESPN bet app. The ESPN bet app will now be directly broadcasting Red Zone and linking you
live bets while you're watching it. And those bets will redirect the ESPN bet app, which is run by
Penn National. I don't think I feel like that's not priced in. You know, I feel like the upside
from that is not priced in like the potential market care capture. Right. I mean,
Penn national too.
What is that?
When what's their market cap today is trading at a 2.73 billion market cap.
So I mean,
again,
I won't like,
are they going to,
is this,
are the effects of all these things going to be immediate?
In fact,
like the official rights won't transfer until 2026, probably the start of the 2026
NFL season.
So it won't even be for this, for the majority, or at least the majority of this NFL season.
But the overlays are happening immediately because between Disney and the NFL, they're
already allowing the integrations to happen.
Disney is already taking these properties and overlaying them and co-promoting them
and advertising Hulu Live TV with Red Zone, with NFL Network. They're already advertising it and
selling it. So the larger entities are treating the deal as done, right? And maybe there'll be
regulatory scrutiny. Maybe they'll get delayed. All that stuff is risk, you know, whatever. But
these are trade positions for me. So it's like if they break down, I'm not going to like hold these
to $1 or anything. These aren't like long-term high-conditioned things but this is a basket of
three stocks that i own i have a pretty good cushion a pretty big cushion on genius pen and
fubo are more recent positions so i don't really have i mean pen i have a little bit of a cushion
uh fubo i do not have a cushion i'm down actually down on my entry on fubo so
yeah that's i don't know i guess some people might find that interesting but i i think those
three stocks will if the merger goes through if the partnership is executed well i think all three
of those stocks will capture significant market share as a consequence of their direct relation to the activities that are going to be conducted under the new entities.
Like it's to me, it's straightforward and all the charts look good.
So, you know, Fubo's daily charts a mess.
But, you know, if you zoom out, I think there's a potential bottoming event there, too.
So, I mean, it's been consolidating all year on no volume
after it had a highest ever daily weekly and monthly volume on basically the first trading
second trading day of the year when it you know forexed on on the news of that merger so and since
then it's just been consolidating on nothing volume but if you pull up the chart you can't
even see the volume bars for the whole year other other than the start of the year, which is like this massive skyscraper tower of volume.
Like, clearly, everyone who bought at the beginning of the year on that, like the people who bought in the beginning of the year on the Disney version news have not distributed into this price consolidation.
That's obvious from the volume.
You don't need to be an expert in volume price analysis to see that. There's no volume.
So they're holding. Now, could there be an event where they become four sellers and the stock
absolutely tanks? Yes, that's a risk. Obviously, there could be an event where the merger is not
approved or the merger is shot down by a regulator. And then it becomes a massively crowded trade from
all the people that
jumped into the beginning of the year and crashes that could absolutely happen but you know smid
caps are high risk but yeah keep that in mind but yeah so that those are i think those are
ideas that are worth mentioning um that i'm in and yeah even though genius has gone up a lot
since i first talked to you guys about it i still haven haven't sold any. So for what that's worth, I don't know.
Take that for what it's worth.
And during this quote-unquote correction in the last two days in momentum names and smid caps, Genius hasn't really budged.
It closed green today and went down like 2% or 2.5% yesterday.
half percent yesterday so like it didn't really budge um but yeah anyway um nice bounce for for
So it didn't really budge.
centrist energy today too off the 21 week at ema that was actually the spot i mentioned about a
week ago that we were looking for it to bounce off of after it broke the 50 day so nice bounce
on that one today i remain in that one as well you know even though it's come down a lot off the
highs it's it's okay because we have a cost based advantage, you know,
and somebody did a great post on this today. Connor Bates. Uh,
he's a guy follow. He's a great follow. You should follow him.
I'm sure a lot of people in the crowd do, but, um,
he did a post today just mentioning like why it's so important to have a
cushion. And I just want to like reiterate what he was saying, but like,
when you have a really good entry on a stock and you've,
you hold it for months when the markets are hot, right? Like they have been for the last four or five months and you have a really good entry on a stock and you hold it for months when the markets are hot, right?
Like they have been for the last four or five months and you build an enormous cushion on the position.
It is easier to hold through these types of momentum where everyone's rotating out of momentum in one day and everything's down 7%.
It's easier to hold through that because you're up 185% on shares or whatever you're up.
You know, like you're like, OK, fine. The stock's pulling back after an insane run. Like, and I still really
like the name. I can sit through this. And in many cases, if you have dry powder, some people add to
their positions in those moments, right? Where the stock's down 10, 12% or whatever, you know,
maybe they add a little bit and then goes down a little bit more, they add a little bit. Like,
it's easier to build into and hold and manage a position and sit through the volatility and everything.
Like it's every part of position management is easier when you have an enormous cushion like that.
So that's why entries, I think, are very valuable.
It's why I think it's worth learning how to read a chart, even if you're an investor.
Like so many investors are like, I never look at a chart, never needed it.
Like, yeah, in a raging bull market, OK, you don't need to look at it.
It's not like necessary, but it improves your outcomes i think overall but anyway yeah i think you can look at
a lot of names right now in the action the last two days and say last week like yesterday yesterday
was a day where a lot of names came to the precipice of breaking down on their weeklies. Like the amount of stocks that were read yesterday
that I pulled up and looked at their weekly charts
and they came down right into their nine week EMAs
like to the penny, like was astonishing.
Like so many of them, right?
And that's where it's like the markets
are on the verge of a breakdown.
And then today off the open,
it looked like a lot of those stocks were going to break down.
And then we got,
you know,
dip buyers stepped in on individual names,
big,
like they stepped in on the indexes towards the back half too and bought
spy backup.
Like what did we close on spy?
We ended up closing,
like minus 0.27%.
I think,
you know,
one point today we were down like a 0.8 point of over 1%.
um, the indexes did get bob in the back half but a lot of individual names started
rebounding aggressively like right off the morning like you know like my time central time like 11 30
you know close to lunch time a lot of individual names started v-shape recovering off off the
bottom and then eventually the index has turned around as well.
And I think that action is promising, but it was on low volume in a lot of cases.
So, you know, I think you have to remain a little cautious here after yesterday's action on a lot of market leaders.
But structure is still intact as far as I'm concerned.
far as I'm concerned, like, could that change depending on the weekly close here? Yeah. But
Like, could that change depending on the weekly close here?
a lot of stocks at their weekly lows defended really, really important like technical spots.
And that's, even if that happens on low volume, you have to give the market credit for that. So
yeah, like bulls stepped in, not numerously, but they stepped in in the right places on a lot of like momentum leaders and market leading stocks.
And so to me that, you know, that that's a promising sign.
I think what really matters is the weekly closes here.
And if we get some brutal weekly closes, like if we get like, I don't know, maybe we get like a rebound on Powell's initials, comments, then like flush into the close on Friday and you get some brutal weekly
closes on some of these market leading names, then I think that could be a bad sign.
But we have two days to find that out.
So the summary of what I just said, technically speaking, is that I think today's action was
nice, but the weekly close matters a lot more.
That's it for me.
I know we haven't gone to Kevin, so let's go to Kevin.
Well, one thing I want to ask you on that before we do the weekly close,
just in general, I mean, obviously, Friday is Jackson Hole Day.
Friday is kind of what a lot of people have been talking towards this week.
I don't think there's a coincidence there that it's lining up.
It feels like you're watching Jackson Hole.
Yeah, markets tend to do that.
Like charts, yeah, exactly.
You're exactly right.
Charts tend to do that.
do that. You know, they tend to come to these inflection points when there's big binary moments
They tend to come to these inflection points when there's big binary moments.
because they're really important CPIA or it's like, you know, really important Powell speech or
it's a big market announcement. Like a lot of stocks were doing that ahead of April 2nd. You
know, they were tight with their moving averages, like going into that event. And then, you know,
a lot of people were like, oh, they're going to explode higher than they don't. Right. So. Yeah, you can you could see that happening, like markets get indecisive
going into those events by their nature, like the market is a very intelligent vehicle, you know,
it understands that risk has to kind of be repriced in both directions going into those
things. And so you tend to see price tighten up, get flat onto like really important moving averages
that they tend to respect.
And it makes traders indecisive
going into those moments too.
It's meant to do that, right?
It's like, I see it so often,
like going into like an earnings report
or going into like a big individual stock catalyst,
like a stock's flat, like hugging.
It's 21 EMA going into the catalyst like
that's by design that's that's to make you think like dude this could break down or it could just
catapult to the upside like that's you know that's by design so yes that's a good observation
all right kevin yeah i'm be, I'm doing pretty good.
I'm going to be fairly quick because I got to pick myself up from school here.
So once again, the rotation definitely kind of held up here today.
We had a similar situation about two months ago, about a month and a half ago, two months
ago.
The rotation trade lasted for about a week.
And then we started seeing buyers kind of stepping in to the mega cap names or, you know,
high beta tech or whatever.
What I would say is like, keep focusing on this 50-day moving average right microsoft pretty much trading at it
uh a couple of other other stocks kind of trading at the 50-day moving average
um as well let's see what the bounce kind of uh what that really kind of looks like here
i posted a thing at the top as well so the the palantir i'm not going to beat a dead
horse but what's actually very interesting on the options front here is obviously we saw the flush
of the downside earlier this morning a stock got to around 143 dollars and then we started seeing
a significant amount of put sales at the 140 strike expiring this friday a significant amount
right so somebody's selling those puts they're bullish on the stock, they think the stock's going to go up. Dealers are going to be buying those puts. So they would
like to stock for the most part to go down as the price kind of goes up as buyers started to step in
and put the dealer at a little bit more risk. That means they either have to unload shares
that they have in their books and or buy shares in the Palantir, right? So we started seeing that happening at around 1pm Eastern time.
Yeah, 1pm Eastern time, 12pm or 1pm Eastern time, you started seeing a significant amount of
activity in the 155 calls, once again, expiring for this Friday, like a significant amount.
There's 154,000 contracts that traded on the on the day. Open interest to start today was like 2,500.
What was that?
The 155 strikes.
So about 1 o'clock Eastern time, 12 to 1 o'clock Eastern time,
the 155 strikes for Palantir started printing.
And I'm talking about systematic buying.
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Danny should mention that.
Yeah, yeah.
Okay.
Yeah.
So systematic buying, 2,000, 4,000 lots kind of going in. The trades that I was following,
that individual was hitting those at around $3.20, $3.20 for the $1.55, $3.20, $3.50 or whatever.
But they're happening for this Friday, a significant amount of activity there. Now,
this is where I find very interesting. You have the confluence of the 50 day moving average, got a really decent candle there as well, that hammer candle right there
on the 50. But the reason why I kind of bring this up is once again, the 140 sales on the put side
kind of created the initial inertia for the move to the upside. You could call it even a risk
reversal, right? Selling premium, then buying upside calls, using that premium on the sales to buy the upside calls. Obviously, it would be
uber bullish. I'm actually looking forward to this on Friday. This is the biggest thing that
I'm looking forward to outside of Jackson Hole. And the reason why is because this premium will
also fall off. So you really need the stock to actually have a follow through day, like an aggressive one
tomorrow to really kind of dead that premium risk, not only for those that actually bought those
calls, but also for those dealers as well. And if you have those, you know, the stock, let's say,
because right now there is going to be theoretically a wall at the 155 to 156-ish area,
just based on the gamma exposure that's out there. And if it's able to kind of hold that 155, 156-ish area, just based on the gamma exposure that's out there. And if it's able to kind of
hold that 155, 156 going into that Friday's expiration, the unwind on that Monday, in my
opinion, would be fairly aggressive from those dealers actually kind of unwinding some of these
long positions because of this call of buying. But it also kind of gives you the confidence,
at least maybe for tomorrow, that you can see a follow-through day. So I think that was actually very interesting. The rotational trade, once again, last time we
had this lasted for maybe four trading sessions, five trading sessions, and we saw a reversal.
So I would be a little concerned about that. Not surprising that you saw kind of that sell to the
downside this morning. And then also yesterday, been talking about bond volatility. Bond volatility crept up on Monday and it crept up on Tuesday as well. That has a
direct relationship or correlation with the S&P 500. You would hope that we actually see bond
vol actually crushing today, which I think that it did. I'll check the move index tomorrow.
But if you have a reversal in bond vol, that's going to be conducive for equities kind of moving
higher here. There was also this kind of narrative early on in today's session where the market was selling off and everybody's
freaking out that Powell's not going to signal any type of rate cut in September and he's going to do
this whole reversal thing. I don't think that's actually true because a 10-year wouldn't be
trading in the manner that it is. 30-year wouldn't have been trading in the manner that it did today,
which both of those were bid up. So at the end of the day, I think that was a false narrative. I think this is all mechanical.
I don't think that this is over with as far as this volatility, and this could be both upside
vol and downside vol. September, I think, is going to get a little bit worse. You had a taste of
volatility re-rating higher and then kind of crushing a little bit. If the last 24 to 48 hours
is a little concerning for you,
volatility is still relatively cheap compared to where it could go based on the events that we have.
And hedging a portfolio is not the worst thing in the world to be able to do in this type of environment.
So I would say you still got to be a little bit tactical here.
I still think that we will see some gyration.
But the intraday swings that we will see some gyration. But the
intraday swings that we saw on some of these names, like an Oklo or Palantir, I think, once again,
I feel like they're a little bit more options related than actual dollars being put to work
on shares. And the big hope is that you actually have a supplement of shares over the next couple
of days to kind of stabilize those option positions before they actually roll off on Friday
and dealers actually kind of recorrect their books, if you will, because that's just how options work. So that's
where, oh yeah, and then crude moved to the upside. Exports actually saw a pretty decent gain
in exports last week. Everybody's been bearish on crude oil, so keep your eye out on that.
And then Dmitry Medvedev came out with a post today saying, any NATO troops on the ground,
we don't care.
It would be a non-starter for a deal. I still think that there's geopolitical risk out there
between Russia and Ukraine. And Ukraine is actually launching their new Flamingo cruise
missiles into Russia as we speak. And it sounds like they're going towards Moscow territory.
So that will be an interesting one to see and follow over the next couple of hours. So
with that, I will kick it back and I appreciate you guys having me on.
Yeah, I appreciate that.
That was some good commentary right there.
So I had somebody DM me while Kevin was talking, and they said that I didn't mention what the news was from today on the ESPN app.
today on the espn app i just went straight into the stocks and so i didn't realize i didn't even
I just went straight into the stocks.
So I didn't realize I didn't even mention the news.
mention the news so anyway uh the details came out today and it's going to be uh they said nearly
50 000 live sports events will feature on the espn app which is kind of a crazy number the actual
number uh i checked the headline on a different source, and the actual number is 46,000.
But anyway, that's a lot of events.
But anyway, that's going to include major leagues like NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL.
It's going to be able to be personalized depending on which teams you want to watch or which teams you're fans of.
So you can set it to say, okay, I'm a Lakers fan.
I want to see all Lakers broadcasts and highlights pop up on the app,
and it'll do that.
And it'll have the integrated betting features.
It'll be $30 a month.
That's pretty good.
You know, for people who are sports fans, I have so many friends,
For people who are sports fans, I have so many friends, so many friends,
that will only get TV, like get TV bundles so they can watch sports.
And they don't watch anything else.
And now, you know, Disney is going to, as of next season,
potentially this season, depending on how quickly regulators approve the sale
that NFL is making to Disney.
But depending on how quickly regulators approve that sale, that's a compelling offering.
Anybody who wants to just watch, and if they secure the deal with the MLB that they're working on, that'd be pretty crazy.
And then you pay $30 a month and you get a ton of live sports events and you get
it all personalized and you can bet through it too all in one like that's i think it's a compelling
offering whatever you think of espn whatever you think of disney i think the offering is compelling
you know and some people would say why wouldn't you buy disney in that case i just think there's
more upside to the peripheral players than there is to Disney personally. But anyway, that's to reiterate that
because somebody asked, somebody DMed me and said, why didn't you explain the news? Because
that's true. I didn't even mention that. So that was the news that came out today. But
there was like, for when, when the Penn deal happened, when like Penn and the Penn and Barstool
deal happened, the funny thing is most of the
press around that deal was centered around portnoy buying barstool for a dollar like does anyone
remember the day that happened does anyone remember a headline on that day about pen's
deal with espn no most of what people talked about and remember from that day is that dave
portnoy bought barstool back for a dollar and
people are like oh my god that's like the greatest trade of all time but but yeah okay you know Penn
made whatever deal they made but on the flip side they got access to probably the most compelling
sports media brand to put their betting offering behind and you know i don't think the stock has
been accredited for it because there was obviously execution risk but there also wasn't really an
understanding of how willingly disney would integrate betting and i talked about this
yesterday a little bit but not really but i talked a little bit about this idea of like Disney keeping betting at arm's length because it is a, it's not like
a family friendly thing, you know, but this move over the last couple of months, really
this acceleration of their, like their aggressiveness with the NFL, uh, you know, that is a suggestion that they don't really feel that
way anymore. And that they're like, okay, look, we're going to use ESPN, the subsidiary,
as our sort of, to let them do the dirty work. You know what I mean? Like, why is the NFL doing
a deal with ESPN directly instead of Disney directly, even though ESPN is owned by Disney
because of this exactly, which is that Disney saying, okay, we want to bet. We want the stock
and the company to benefit from the upside there is in integrating sports betting with sports media,
but we don't want our Disney watching audience who show their kids cartoons to feel like the brand is associated
with that. So how do we do it? Well, we just use ESPN as our sort of arm to do this, right?
Like, I don't remember, I remember reading the stats somewhere, but Evan, you can, I guess,
verify this on an LLM if this is true, but I don't remember the exact figure, but I think it's
something like 20% of Disney's operating profit comes from espn is that true
you check that uh let's see let's look into what they release see what percent of disney's
operating profit comes from espn i remember reading a tweet that said that but i've never
verified it so i'm just curious i'm looking at ebit
whatever give me give me give me something like give me something a third a fourth of the ebit I'm looking at EBIT. Whatever.
Give me something.
A third, a fourth of the EBIT comes from sports.
Really?
Yeah.
It's not like a crazy statement.
I mean, that's pretty.
So, okay.
So, whatever.
So, you said a third.
You said, is it closer to a third or closer to a fourth?
Okay.
Last quarter, they brought an operating income from the sports division of
$1 billion, and the total was $3.5 billion.
So it's pretty smack in the middle.
Okay, dude, that's pretty significant.
28% is what this is saying.
But of revenue,
it's contributing
nearly a third, right?
17% of revenue.
Profit, right?
What'd you say? Closer to like 17% of revenue. Profit. Right. What'd you say?
Closer to like 17% of the total revenue comes from sports and 28% of the total operating income comes from sports.
Yeah.
Duh.
so Bob Iger probably realized this,
right?
And keep in mind,
this is based on the current figures.
Right. This is based on the current figures. This is based on the current figures.
Right?
So the more I actually talk about this, I mean, maybe Disney is along.
Here's what I've been thinking here and been telling you and not said.
Disney is not a company I would bet on to do tech super well.
But see, that's the beauty
of this.
But here's what I'd also say.
They've just struggled. I own Disney.
I'm a shareholder. I'm waiting for it.
It's great IP, but it's just a struggling company
to execute. I used to own it back in the day,
but I haven't owned it in a long time.
Hey, one thing I will say
is that Go Woke, Go Broke
stench that was kind of on the stock
for a while seems to have snapped off a little
bit. Mr.
Texas Stock Talk
coming up here talking about Disney.
That ESPN brand shining through.
But see, I think
the sports...
I wonder what's the...
Let me just ask.
I'm going to ask this laptop.
Speak out loud what your question is.
I want to know the difference in margins between sports betting operations and...
Linear TV? Licensed media and linear TV.
But I need to know it
in a more nuanced way.
The thing about sports betting is it's a little more of a
risky income because sometimes...
But I imagine most of the profit is not from linear TV for ESPN.
It's probably from licensed media.
And I actually don't know.
I don't know the breakdown of any of this stuff.
So I'm just like not qualified to talk about this.
Isn't there also an inherent thing with a sports book?
Like you win when your people lose.
Why also don't want to own a prop firm?
Sports betting is a great...
Digital sports betting is a phenomenal operation
because you have to think about it.
You're removing the physical operation burden.
Right?
And volumes are still enormous.
In fact, in some instances,
in some regional market studies,
people have found that the population is betting more
than they would
with a conventional casino in the area they did a study based on um so people have been to new
orleans there's a harrah's and within a 10 mile radius almost all the casino traffic goes to that
harrah's okay in probably within greater of that of that of a radius. So anyway, for those who have been, you'll understand this analogy better.
There was somebody that did a study based on that and based on a similar density area.
I forgot which city they use, but they took a similar density area that had a regional sports book active.
There was a similar density area to that area of New Orleans, right?
Which is a pretty high density area for those that have been to New Orleans.
That's a pretty touristy area.
It's right near Bourbon Street.
So anyway, they did this thing and the regional sports book blew them out of the water.
It was in like New Jersey, if I remember correctly.
But anyway, I read that study like eight months ago.
But it blew them out of the water in terms of total participation in terms of the amount of people that were betting.
And it also blew them on the water in terms of the total amount bet.
Now, that's going to change based on regional profiles, the popularity of the local sports book, the wealth of the local people.
It's not it's not a nuanced data.
So you have to consider all those factors.
But broadly speaking, it's more convenient. It's cheaper. There's no investment in physical infrastructure needed. It is a good business. The problem is, is it is it is a very low barrier to entry business. That is the issue. exist in the first place because they've captured regional market share like that's why books like
rush street interactive exist right because they've captured regional market share and
betters are used to their platform and so they just use it and that's not really a moat you know
it's not the likely scenario is they all get acquired all the regional books will get acquired
and there'll be like a few books standing. Probably FanDuel and DraftKings look like the incumbent winners right now. It's probably
going to be a duopoly between them. Maybe a couple of other books will survive and defend their
regional market share somehow. I don't know. Maybe they'll offer like deals to existing clients or
something or I don't know. They might figure out some way to defend off the bigger guys or or they'll just get bought out at you know premiums that they feel are are worthy but yeah it's not a crazy good business
but that's why i also don't i don't own really when right now i currently own one as a trade
and pen but i think pen's approach is better frankly i i think the approach to say let's go to a established brand like espn
and just integrate into all of their media offerings that's way better like if you think
of the future of betting the future of betting is not like hey bro log into your draft kings app
real quick like as we're walking up to the stadium like you know i want to see this the future of
betting is is like people at their houses who are watching a game and a thing pops up it goes do you
want to bet on devin booker to hit this three as he's coming across the half court line and you can
hit yes or no right there like that's the future of betting obviously like you don't need to be a
genius to see that right and the future of betting is like you you turn a game on and as they're
warming up the pregame routine they go three biggest bets and you can literally click them
on your screen and take them that's obviously the future everyone knows that anyone who's bet any amount of times knows that
that's where it's going bro at some point i don't want to i don't want to like bet the one it doesn't
matter if you want it it makes the money it doesn't matter if you want it they figured out that you
can monetize this and in many cases you can monetize i don't want to watch the tick charts
dude i want to watch the 15 minutes don't get me down to the tip come on dude think about the advertising revenue for events like the super bowl right
now layer on to that live betting that is done by the nfl through integrations and companies or
stakes they take in companies like you know the nfl okay who owns this is the craziest thing about
the the espn nfl deal okay the espn bet is owned by espn and the nfl is now giving nfl network and
red zone network and six league-owned games to a company that owns a betting company. And the NFL is taking a 10% stake in that same company. Like, do you understand what's happening there?
Like, the NFL is saying, we want you to bet. And we're going to profit off of it when you do.
Like, people are underestimating the, like, tailwind here for the idea of just betting.
They're going to make it so accessible.
They're going to,
they're going to,
they're going to offer you $5 bets on,
you know,
a live three pointer calls and touchdown calls.
And,
you know,
there's going to,
there's going to be a breakaway in the end of the NHL.
They're going to say,
is he going to score a goal here?
And they're going to offer you, like, crazy odds for $5 live on the screen.
And you're going to click it.
People are watching on their tablets or their phones.
You know how many guys were at events or, like, I do this all the time when, I mean, when, like, I'm a big NBA guy.
I watch games on my phone.
My friends watch games on their phone.
You know how many people are doing that? You know how many people are doing that?
You know how many people are doing that?
A lot of people are doing that, or on their tablets, or on their screens.
And, you know, there'll be integrations very quickly where you're watching on your TV,
and you can bet with your remote.
Very quickly that will happen, and it'll be seamless.
You know, you'll have your card saved, and boom, boom, boom, boom,
where you'll have a balance saved on the ESPN app on your TV.
At what point are we just too deep?
Like, what are we talking about?
It doesn't matter.
I just wanted to watch football, you know?
I just wanted to watch football.
Convenience always means.
I just wanted to watch some people go hit some other people.
It doesn't matter if you think it's moral or ethical.
What do we want to go in a boxing fight and pause mid-fight
so I can get a bet in and see if his punch is going to knock him out?
This feels really great for that slap league, for Dana White or whatever.
It feels good, but I don't know, man.
I feel like there's just a too far point.
The world has made my world be much simpler.
It has made me a much better analyst of stocks.
It has made me a much better stock picker. It has made me a much better analyst of stocks and made me a much better stock picker
and made me a much smarter person?
A very simple thing.
I think of the world not through my moral and ethical lens.
I have morals and ethics,
but I don't think of the world through that
because the world doesn't operate on your ideal moral and ethics.
I think about the world through the lens of tailwind and headwind.
But here's the thing.
I don't think your strategy leads to less people watching
maybe than making more money from those less people watching.
And that's not been the strategy so far.
It's been getting more people.
I think clearly the growth should be international.
Less people are not going to watch.
I would be watching less games if I'm getting 75,000 ads on bets and stuff.
It's not going to be ads.
They're going to do it tastefully.
They're not going to interrupt the broadcast to do it.
It's going to be on timeouts and in between.
Dude, they're going to do it intelligently.
They're going to do it intelligently.
And really high-stakes moments, they'll do it.
And they'll have the option to turn those integrations off.
It's not going to be standard, obviously.
But the people who bet on sports will like it.
The people who bet on sports will like it you know the people who bet on sports will like it and the people who are like sports enthusiasts will like it you know and it's that's
all that matters like this is a market dude this really seems to have the full ecosystem
gambling is a market that's never going anywhere it's as old as time it's as old as time. It's as old as time. It's never going anywhere.
So Disney seems to have this entire ecosystem built out.
Not these data providers.
That's one it doesn't have.
But I mean, it has the eyeballs.
It also has the sports book.
It has these things.
Disney should be quite the player in this space.
And it kind of just isn't.
I mean, yeah, but look, my point is that they have suspended the... They have found a strategic way to conceal their hand in the betting world by using ESPN.
ESPN is like a black glove for them.
Like, they are using it to say, look, ESPN is the betting entity.
It's a sports entity, right?
So they see that nearly a third of their operating profit is coming from an operation that makes up 17% of their revenue.
That's a pretty glaring, if you're a business manager and you see that, what should your deduction be?
It's pretty simple.
Your deduction is I need to grow that operation because its contribution to operating profit
relative to revenue is enormous, right?
And that's what they're doing.
And it's an intelligent thing to do.
And I think as a consequence of them realizing that they are going to be aggressive.
Like when you're trying to think
about companies in these ways and predict like how a company is going to act, in my view, you have to
like think about all available variables. And to me here, everything is pointing in one direction.
The NFL wants a stake in ESPN. Why do they want a stake in ESPN? They know ESPN owns ESPN bet.
That's why they're giving all the media rights to them. Then on top of that,
right? Like the NFL early exercised their warrants in genius ahead of the Disney deal.
Like when I brought up genius on these spaces, this deal between NFL and Disney
about red zone had not happened. Okay. The reason I brought up genius originally,
when I brought it up on these spaces in June was because of the NFL extension.
And when I brought it up, even if you see my original post on genius, what I said was, was that I think it's weird that they are exercising exercising their stake in Genius early? And then they do this Disney deal to give the media rights to Disney and to take a stake in ESPN. Like, from the NFL's perspective, it's obvious what the NFL wants. The NFL wants more sports betting, and they want an ownership stake in it.
They want an ownership stake in it.
And on top of that, it's obvious what Disney wants.
Disney wants to expand their sports betting operations because it's a massive contributor to offering operating profit.
Right.
So once you once you consider all those factors, to me, it becomes obvious where that is headed.
But obviously, regulators are the big risk here with all of this stuff, which is that regulators can come poop on the whole party.
So, you know, that's the big risk, that regulators fuck it over.
But I think in that case,
Genius would still be okay.
But obviously, Penn and FUBA wouldn't be as enticing
if regulators shot those mergers down.
But we'll see.
There's, like I said, big risks to all those names.
But, I mean, I own them.
So, you know, figured they're worth talking about, worth explaining.
Lyft acted really well today off the lows.
I don't know if you're still there.
I didn't really look into it too deep.
Let me see.
I just saw the calls weren't doing too great earlier.
Again, I had too much in – oh, nice.
Yeah, close flat.
I had too much in Lyft, and I rolled from 15 to 16 on the short-term data
and kind of basically took out all the costs.
Don't do the short-term data, man.
I know.
But hey, listen, I got the break-even on it. I'm good.
No matter what happens on it, I made $100, unless I buy more.
Dude, when you're trading sub-70% IV,
like the contracts were on Lyft when you and me were buying them,
like you can get contracts an extra three months out for very little change in the actual net premium.
And the thing is, people don't think about it that way.
They go like, you know, somebody will look at like a contract that's like $2.20.
And then the one three months further out is like $2.90.
And then they're like, you know, oh, I'm not going to pay $2.90.
I'll pay $2.20 though, right?
And they're buying like 10 contracts.
And I'm like, dude, you're buying 10 contracts.
That's the difference between you risking $2,200 versus risking $2,900 for an extra three months of time.
Like, of course you should for an extra three months of time like are you of course you
should buy the extra three months but like people weirdly think about premium as if like they're
putting a billion dollars into the trade like you're not you're not most of you are not i think
you know i'm not either i don't i don't have billions of dollars either so you know if you're
not putting a billion dollars into the trade, like it's OK.
You know, you can I mean, most people on options are putting, you know, five, six figures at most.
And most people who are retail are probably putting, you know, a couple hundred bucks.
Right. And so buying yourself time in those instances will save you from the volatility.
Like so many retail
traders i see buy contracts and then the stock goes against them for two days like it goes down
like six or seven percent and they're down like 80 on their calls like why like why are you buying
calls that expire in three three weeks to be honest most of you should just be trading equity
like even though i'm experienced with options i still only trade options in like 10 maximum 15% of my portfolio maximum. That's like when I'm
really, really options exposed. So you don't need them to do well. And for those of you that do
insist on using them or actually know how to use them, use them intelligently, like buy a lot more
time than you think you need. You know, some people are like, oh, there's a catalyst in September that I'm trying to
play.
Like I'm going to buy October calls.
Yeah, you could.
But, you know, if the catalyst gets delayed or if there's a market correction in between
now and the catalyst, like your calls are going to get crushed.
Right.
Buying time isn't just about saying like, oh oh i need to be in the stock for longer
sometimes it's about saying in between now and the event i want to reduce the volatility
of the amount of capital i have allocated like that's why you buy time it's not just because
you think something's going to happen a little later so you know for me generally i like to go
like really far out and there's some events where, you know, I'll go three months out.
And there's some catalysts where I'll go closer.
It just depends.
Like very rarely I will if I think something's really impending.
But you just do it to add a little bit of leverage on positions where you think something could happen soon.
That's really all you do it for.
And if you don't think something's going to happen soon, then don't buy options.
You know, maybe you could buy leaps if they're extremely low IV, right?
If they're extremely low IV leaps that you can buy super far out that you just want to accumulate, that's fine.
if you're really, really confident on the stock.
You know, if you're really, really confident on the stock.
But know this, if for some reason something crazy happens in the macro,
markets break down and get crushed for 8, 12 months,
your leaps are dead.
I don't care how conservative you were with them,
they're going to get crushed. So leaps are nice when we're were with them. They're going to get crushed.
So leaps are nice when we're in bull markets.
They're nice when we're in bull markets.
But if the market decides to trade sideways or trade down for 8 or 12 months, like in 2022, there are a lot of people that started 2022, had leaps on stuff that by the end of 2022 were washed out, like washed out, you know, completely like down 80, 90 percent on stuff they thought was safe.
Like they're like, oh, I bought, you know, I bought stuff two years out, leaps two years out. Right. And then, you know, the stock goes down peak to trough decline of 58 percent in per year.
a trough decline of 58% in per year, your leaps are fucking screwed. Unless you're so deep,
unless you're like Nancy Pelosi deep in the money, you know, for those that get that reference,
because Nancy Pelosi always buys super deep in the money calls. But like, unless you're crazy
deep in the money, and even then, even then the premium is going to get crushed. Even then.
the premium is going to get crushed even then. So yeah, don't do that. Just don't do it. Don't
do it unless you, you know, know how to manage your risk and not to manage your positions.
Like, cause that people just, I hate watching people just like stack stuff at the wrong times
and get buried on. And they're now like 98% on like tens of thousands of dollars in options.
It hurts my heart watching people burn money like that. So
don't be an idiot. Like you pay attention to the potential probabilities of what you're,
what you're, you're proposing, you know, like sometimes I'll share an idea and some members
in our community will be like, Oh, I'm going to buy, you know, 30% out of the money calls expiring
two weeks from now. It's like, dude, what are you
expecting? Like, did I say something was going to happen tomorrow that was going to send this thing
30% higher? Like, that's a crazy way to play something like, either just buy the equity,
or buy a very, very conservative set of call options. Like, most of the call options I buy
ever period, regardless of how far out they are
are less than 10 out of the money generally like i'm not going like i see people buying stuff that's
like 60 70 percent of the money i'm like dude have you lost your fucking mind like why with the risk
reward on that is so low like there's so many better ways to get that exposure. Just buy shares if you think it's going that high.
You know, like if you're buying calls on a stock that are like 70% of the money, you
think the stock's going that high, buy shares in size.
They'll be much easier to manage along the way.
And you'll make more money probably on a dollar standpoint than you will anyway.
From how much money you allocate to the leaps you know and that's another thing that
people don't which would we maybe talk about another day because we're already way over
a time but that's another thing people don't think about enough which is they don't think
about their dollar allocation enough like they don't think about like how much money would i put
into that and even experienced traders don't think
about this I think sometimes uh they don't like they don't consider the fact of of like okay
if all it takes in a year to drive performance like most of my performance this year has been
driven by like four stocks I've traded like what 30 maybe 35 names this year maybe even more maybe maybe almost 40 names i've been i
have i've cycled through a bunch of trades on different names this year and last year right
but through that like maybe five or six stocks have driven most of my performance
you know so and that's because of sizing because i sized them more aggressively and didn't sell
them into strength right like as opposed to other positions where i bought them and sold them into
strength and many of them ended up way higher you know but um that's that that's what matters
is like what is your actual dollar allocation going to be do it
like are you going to allocate a meaningful amount of money to it and a lot of people who
trade shorter term options who are looking for like a big home run they throw a couple hundred
bucks into it and they hit some really lucky play right and they get 500 percent of their options
and they're like oh dude i only made you know a couple hundred bucks you know and
like i've had i've had 500 options plays before that i put tens of thousands of dollars into
because i may i wanted to make like the position matter i wanted to add leverage to the position. Right. And so but I'm not buying like call options that are 90 percent out of the money.
Like I'm buying less than 10 percent of money with plenty of capital. Like if I were ever putting more than five or 10 or 15 or $20,000 into a set of options, I am not buying them far out of the money ever, ever. Like I don't even
think about it. And I'm never buying them short term either. Those options positions are usually
way out, at least six months out, at least.
And they're usually very close to the money, which means by the time the stock gets there,
you know, they're going to be up a lot.
Like, I'll give an example of this Kratos leaps, right?
Like, I have Kratos leaps that expire in 2027 that i bought back in february of this year okay what was kratos back and well i bought them actually on several dates i bought
them throughout the weeks of uh 211 and 227 so i bought them them two weeks in February. So sort of average into them. But anyway,
the average price on those is $4.64, right? And I bought 2027 leaps. Now, these were obviously a
lot more than 10% of the money, but they were expiring in 2027 far out, right? So I was
aggressively targeting this stock and it had recently come down and tested the 200 day moving average.
So I was a little more aggressive with these, but I bought tons of time, right?
Tons of time.
And I also bought the 35s, which was much more conservative, right?
And so I bought the 35s also.
The average price on those was $8.75.
The 35s are now trading at $35.
So they're up 300%. And the $40s are up
571%. Those were not far out of the money crazy options. They were super far out, expiring in
2027, right? So when I bought them, they were expiring two years from when I bought them.
And they were, in my view, pretty conservative
based on how far down the stock had come, right? It had come down into its 200 day moving average.
So I felt the combined risk reward of those two things was appropriate, but I'm also experienced,
right? Like for somebody who's inexperienced, I would, I wouldn't say to even go that far out.
I would say to go down to 30, if you're inexperienced, you know, like that's the rule I give our community members is to go down. You know,
for me, I've been doing a long time so I could flex that rule sometimes on higher conviction
positions. But for newer traders, I would go even more conservative than that. And even if you had
gone with the 30s, let's say you went with the 30s, right? Well, your 30s are going to be $30 in the money anyway.
The stock's 64, right? So even if you'd gone more conservative, it's not like you wouldn't have had a huge gain. You would still be sitting on a multi-hundred percent gain,
right? On a much, much safer buy. Rather than buying weeklies with a couple hundred bucks and
making a couple hundred bucks, you could make tens of thousands or for some
people, hundreds of thousands on, uh, you know, a lead play like that, or for some people millions.
I mean, I don't know how big everyone's accounts are. There's some really rich people out there
that are very quiet. So I don't know, but I don't want to speak for anyone, but however much is
relevant to your portfolio is my point. And, you know, so it's the same thing. Like with genius,
I bought a bunch of equity, right? But I bought a bunch of 10 calls too when i bought the genius 10 calls the stock was 960 talk about
less than 10 of the money it was i bought i bought calls that were 40 cents out of the money
when i bought genius right and those calls are up you I mean, the year's not over yet. Those Jan 2026 calls, you know, but those are up over 100%, right?
So you don't need to be risky in the markets to make great compounded returns or to make monster trades.
You don't need to be a crazy risk taker and buy silly stuff.
You can buy smart, concentrated things and, you know, you can you can give thought to to what you're buying and say, OK, I'm going to wait till this develops and builds out and then I'm going to build into a few more contracts.
You can buy smart, concentrated things.
And as it starts to accelerate, I'm going to build into a few more contracts and out of positions is gradually. Because if you do it all at once and try to escape price action,
you're never going to get anywhere in terms of building positions.
So, yeah, I don't know.
We talked about a lot of stuff today, but there was good action on a lot of names.
I know I talked about Genius earlier and Penn and Fubo,
so I won't touch on that again.
But there was good action, a lot of names.
LEU, Bounce, I mentioned that earlier.
Huntington acted great today.
HII, which is the other name in my defense basket.
I cut Parsons today.
I cut Aurora today.
PSN and AUR.
I cut GSRT today.
So those are three things that I did.
That was just a position management thing.
You know, I saw a lot of momentum leaders breaking down this morning and figured, you know what,
if some other market risks come on the horizon, they could push us down further pretty easily.
So I just consolidated positions. That doesn't mean I'm out. I'm still in that long. I have,
you know, 15 positions still long. So, you know, I'm not like jumping out of the market or anything. I haven't even gotten hedges yet,
but I just trimmed some fat on lower conviction stuff today. A couple lower conviction positions.
And yeah, I have some buying power now. There's some stuff I'm looking at, but nothing's quite
ready after these daily breakdowns
i don't like to rush into stuff after daily breakdowns some people like to be heroes i don't
uh i like to wait for the price to consolidate a little bit you know give me some signal of a sign
of bottoming uh before i start jumping back into things but there's there's a lot of charts that i
think still look good even after this two days of momentum melt. You know, Lyft, Penn.
I'm talking about just other names that I own.
Huntington, you know, Centris.
I really liked the bounce today off the 21 week,
but it has some work to do.
You know, I'd like to see it recapture that 200 level.
So, you know, but I would be fine.
Even if Centris ends up with a weekly
month, week, monthly close, I'd be fine as long as it gets a higher, uh, higher low put
in on the month from, from the last month.
So that'll be fine with me.
Um, and I, I liked the action today.
I liked the buyer stepped in to save it at that spot.
Um, cause it could have fallen a lot further if it if it forfeited that um kratos acted
beautifully today too kratos had like a really a perfect uh bounce off the 21 ema uh 20 simple
moving average stack on it too but um has a 90 ema still overhead hasn't recaptured that yet but
perfect bounce for them same thing with nebius kratos and nebius actually had really really similar looks going into today uh nebius's volume profile is a little bit superior
uh well i should say a lot superior but they had similar looks going into today
um and both caught their 21 emas at the lows today and bounced so buyers stepped in to save
those names as well um a lot of structure saves in a lot of
places. I did a workshop last night, about an hour long, just talking about how to kind of
casually observe market structure. I kept it pretty straightforward. And my thinking was that,
look, there's a lot of potential breakdowns on the horizon,
but we could still get some saves.
And today we got a lot of those saves at the lows intraday for a lot of these names.
You know, Genius, I actually expected Genius to have a bigger pullback during that momentum unwind,
but recapture the 9 EMA today into the close, close 12 1264 which was a hell of a close I mean at the
lows the thing had fallen pretty far below so a hell of a close for genius love the way I think
that thing acted these past couple days a lot of other names for me unwound lift, I expected this thing to, you know, maybe settle today near the lows against that 90MA and give buyers maybe a chance to step in tomorrow.
But they didn't even really wait.
You know, they picked the thing off the lows and closed it basically green, flat on the day.
That's nice, too, to see on lift so some some good attitude change from lift
um in an environment like this you know it's not the type of stock based on it's i mean it's
stocks flat year today right so it's not the type of stock based on its recent performance you would
expect to act like that but it acted well um so you know i think that that that was interesting um
yeah a fubo also you know it's kind of acting like shit these last couple days but
it caught that hundred day you know it bounced off that hundred day today and on the weekly i mean
the weekly it looks good you know this weekly looks like it's sort of just bouncing and waiting
for this declining 200 week to collide with price that's what it looks like it's sort of just bouncing and waiting for this declining 200 week to collide with price.
That's what it looks like to me.
and that could be the moment where you,
where this thing makes a move,
but,
it's holding structure well too.
And like,
I think on the monthly,
it still looks beautiful,
right?
Like,
you know,
that monthly is essentially high and tight.
You know,
if you just sort of block out the noise of the, the lows from the, um,
the May candle, right. Block out the noise from that sort of,
sort of a high and tight monthly consolidation after that monster candle to
open the year. So, um, yeah, I, I, I like the structure.
I think the structure is fine on all my names like
you know a lot of people were like oh like you know because i i had a yesterday most of my names
got smacked almost all of them were red i think i think maybe i had one green or something by the
clothes i don't remember but i think they were almost all red so yesterday i got smacked and
then today i was like okay i'm gonna have to cut a lot of fat if things don't rebound and i did cut
a little fat this morning i cut a couple lower conviction things but i thought i to have to cut a lot of fat if things don't rebound. And I did cut a little fat this morning. I cut a couple lower conviction things.
But I thought I would have to cut more, honestly, if things didn't recover.
But, yeah, I didn't.
The rest of the structure is held well.
I mean, again, that can change.
Any of those names, that can change at the end of the week.
If we see some ugly weekly closes, I may have to make some tough cuts on Friday because I don't want to, on pretty much everything else I have in my portfolio,
outside of the stuff I cut today, I have a nice cushion. Outside of Fubo, which I'm down on,
Fubo is like the only thing I'm red on in my portfolio right now. So yeah, outside of that,
Yeah. Outside of that, I'm not going to have to really cut anything, hopefully.
If Powell just kills the markets on Jackson Hole, like if he just dunks on the markets, then so be it.
I'll get hit from that. But if he doesn't then every the structure looks all right
you know and i think you have to take things day by day and it's funny when i say that some people
will like say well there are people who listen to the show will say well don't you always say
like you zoom out and look at the weekly and monthly charts and i do but But if you really want to master a stock, master stock in terms of managing the name,
you should pay attention to the day-to-day action.
I'm of the philosophy that you don't need to go to any time frame lower than that.
People will disagree with me.
People, you know, yell at the top of their lungs to disagree with that.
People will yell at the top of their lungs to disagree with that.
I have never needed to go below the daily to make decisions about trading or investing.
Personally, I've never needed to go above.
I mean, sometimes I'll look at yearly charts, I guess.
So I don't want to say never above the monthly, but usually I don't really look too much at the yearly charts. But, yeah, I think you have to, you know, know what you own
and sort of be able to make those decisions and be flexible in moments like this
because people, like, the reason you always hear people talk about, you know,
oh, if you owned Apple in fucking, you know, people 19, whatever, and held it till now,
you would be, you know, worth 242 billion if you invested $10,000 or whatever, right?
right and it's like yeah but like the reason no one there's no one you know or i know or very few
people in the world and there are some people i guess but there are very few people in the world
that have done that is because stocks are% and the people who said
they were investors
turned out to be traders.
Right?
That's why I always say
when investors come up here
and they say, I'm not a trader.
That's why I always push back on that.
Because they are.
They're just traders with longer time horizons.
Everyone is a trader.
Everyone.
You just have a different point
when you plan on selling.
I disagree with what you're saying there.
A 10-year time horizon trading?
A year trader over a 10-year time horizon, yeah.
It's a very different thing than one week, you know, one week, one month, or whatever.
You're still trading.
Like, what I'm saying is that, like, Evan, if Apple went down 90% next year, would you hold it?
Well, listen.
The hypothetical.
No, no, no.
Hypothetically, it's not going to do that.
It's not going to do that.
The answer is yes.
Let's play a game.
The answer is yes.
But I'm dumb.
I'm dumb.
That's because I know you were sending me up
to say no there. Yes, I would hold Apple through that.
But I'm also not the typical
person and investor here.
Yeah, I just think most
people wouldn't, right?
Most people wouldn't hold a stock through a 90%
drawdown, I think.
Right? And
that's the truth. And
I stay in stocks as long Right. And that's the truth. And so.
I stay in stocks as long as their.
Monthly structure is intact.
And when it's not, it usually means something is changing in the story too, generally.
You see a monthly, like a long-term monthly structure in a stock that's breaking down, generally means something has changed.
And so it's not usually just a coincidence. It's not like, oh, I'm selling the stock because of the charts.
Yeah, listen, if the story changed on Apple and then it was down 90%, that's a different thing.
Yeah, but it wouldn't go down 90% without the story changing, right?
Like, there's no way.
That's a stupid question.
What am I supposed to say to that?
If the stock you like changes, gets terrible, and then is down 90%, would you sell?
Yeah.
Yeah, exactly.
But Evan, but I'm saying exactly, right?
But like, that's why no one holds stuff for 20 years.
20 years. The point I'm trying to make is this is why TA matters. Because
Like, the point I'm trying to make is this is why TA matters.
before a stock ever goes down 90%, it breaks down on the monthly. It goes down 20, 30, 40%,
it breaks down on the monthly before it ever goes down that much. So that's why it matters
to investors too. Because even though you say you're
an investor, stock went down 90%, which would mean obviously, yes, the story was also changing.
Apple wouldn't go down 90% if the story wasn't changing. Then you're saying in that scenario,
you would sell the stock. Well, so would most people, right? And so I think what people think when they buy a stock is that my kids are going to inherit it.
And this is the truth.
If that company never goes anywhere, right?
If that company never goes, like it exists for the next 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 years, which isn't as many companies as some people think.
Okay.
That's your first assumption.
Your second assumption is that the company continues to be interesting and the stock continues to go up over that period and appreciate.
Right.
That's your other assumption.
Right. appreciate, right? That's your other assumption, right? Those are big assumptions that a company
will A, be around for 80 plus years and B, will go up over that period, you know, or be a worthy
investment of your capital over that period. Because keep in mind, every investment is an
allocation of capital, right? The 500,000 or million or $2 million that you have in a stock is an allocation
of capital that could be used elsewhere, right? Yeah, you get a margin loan on your account,
depending on the account you have, right? You get a margin loan on that capital. Yeah, sure,
on the assets you own. You can get bank loans on the equities you own. You can get house loans in some places on the on the equity you own as collateral. But yeah, so you can use it as collateral. Of course, I'm not saying you can't use equities collateral. But at the end of the day, it's money that you've allocated to equity, right? That that money could also be allocated to a different equity, right? That would have the same collateral benefits, right? So that that are the argument of Oh, you know, I know, I, but yeah, I can use the equities, collateral and boring against it as a poor one,
because yeah, you could also put it in a stock that performs better and provides you the same
equity and collateral benefit, right? So anyway, stock picking is never irrelevant, regardless of
your goal is the point I'm making with that point but um fuck i forgot my
train of thought now with that's uh tangent um equity capital what was i talking about
damn i should not have gone on that tangent we're talking about if i'd hold apple if it
was down 90 the story changing yeah yeah Yeah, yeah, yeah. So people think that they're going to hold stocks to their grave, right?
So I just explained why that's a weird expectation to have.
I'm not saying it's a silly expectation or a bad expectation.
I'm explaining why it's a weird expectation to have.
Because you have to bet on the company being around forever.
And if you're buying a MAG-7 name, you probably can bet on that. You can probably bet on it being around forever. And if you're buying a MAG7 name, you probably can bet on that.
You can probably bet on it being around forever.
But can you bet on it going up forever in perpetuity?
Sure, as long as the long-term uptrend remains intact.
Once the long-term uptrend starts breaking down,
for most people, if you've been in the stock for 10 years
and you're up 20,000% on it,
that could be a decent time to trim some.
You know, I'm not saying sell all of it, but I'm saying that could be a decent time where investors can say, you know what?
I've been in the stock for 20 years.
I'm up 15,000%.
You know, the monthly chart is now breaking down.
The story is a little less sexy than it was.
The growth is way lower than it was.
Like, that's generally a pretty market
rewarding time to trim. I'm not saying like to sell stocks early or not invest in them,
but I'm saying most people think they're going to hold stock for 80 years and their kids are
going to get it. And that's just not the case. Like the case is that at some point, something
really bad will happen and you will be a forced seller. That's more likely. That is more likely
than you giving it to your grandkids.
So the summary of everything I just said is you are more likely to be a forced seller at some
ridiculous local low than you are to ever get your grandkids to inherit a stock. So yes,
invest. I invest too. I've owned Tesla and Amazon for what next year will be over 10 years.
Okay. I've owned both of them for that long. Now, eventually I will sell them.
I don't know when, but eventually I will sell them.
Okay. Eventually there'll be some sort of explosive event and I will probably sell
them.
Maybe,
maybe not,
but eventually I think I will sell them.
Right.
and that goes for everything else I own too.
Like eventually the gain will become enough where I will say,
okay,
I'm going to sell this and move the capital to some new opportunity or
something else.
But I also hold some stuff for a really long time.
So I don't want people to think I'm not advocating against investing here.
I just told you two stocks I've owned for a really long time.
Well, this is why I also, a lot of my largest holdings are these products.
And I probably won't sell Robinhood for another 10 years.
I probably hold that for the next 10 years.
What are you going to say, Evan?
I'd say a lot of this is why a lot of my largest holdings,
and I have accounts that are mixed that shouldn't be,
so I'll probably have to unmix it at some point.
But what I'm considering for my longer-term holdings,
that listen, this might say something about me.
I'm not really thinking about the grandkids or kids or anything.
I'm thinking about myself and what vacations i'll be able to do in the future
with some fuck you money um but with that i'm i'm investing in indexes and stocks and well
etfs really qqq voo i like utop a bunch of others
yeah i mean we talk about individual stock picking and we give this kind of
underlying thought a lot maybe not a lot but more than more than some other people did but
a lot of people what i'd say is the worst case scenario is you do something too far in individual
stock picking and you lose money and then you stay away from the market as opposed to
moving to a slightly safer part of the market is what i will say so broad-based market these
broad-based indexes are good for most people there's value in rotations but for me i value
performance in bull markets more than i do survival during rotations. Because in bull
markets is where the money is made, in my
view. That's when your pedal
should be on the gas, right?
What pedal should be...
Wow, I'm too tired. Your foot should be
on the... It's a skip in the gym
today, too, right?
Yeah, my gym's
getting renovated. Oh, no.
Don't let this knock you off your path.
You've been on a good one for a while.
So that can be rough, but yeah.
Anyway.
Um, so what was I going to say?
Um, what was I just saying?
Oh yeah.
You should put your foot on the pedal during bull markets.
Um, that's, that's when you should be, God, I'm so tired.
I keep losing my share of thoughts
that feels like a conversation
around sizing and everything
it's not something that we talk about a lot
but like the size of your positions
scaling them up
in bull markets
scaling them down to bear markets
knowing when to do that
seems to be quite an important thing to do
for someone who's a serious serious trader it's a it's a it's important like you have to know when to be aggressive and you have to know
when is the right time to build positions because like you know like something really bad would have
to happen for me to go underwater on my core positions in my portfolio. Like something really bad would
have to happen in the markets. Like, like even in the pullback in April, when a lot of stocks
crash 30, 40%, like my core position still didn't go underwater, you know? So like
it would have, like there would have to be some kind of like, you know, COVID level event or financial crisis level event for me to go underwater on my core positions.
And in that scenario, I would add to them.
You know, if if if if names like.
I mean, Tesla, I don't think it could ever come back to like 20 bucks, but or less than 20 bucks now for all the covered call sales i've done but uh maybe uh or amazon
you know i mean amazon could come back to my cost basis you know low 110s now so yeah on the equity
but then i have i have options too so i don't know i mean maybe amazon could in like a market
crash come down it would have to come down like you know almost 50 percent um to put me underwater
uh so these things could happen you know but i don't know how long it would last you know i don't
know how long those compressions would last probably not very long you know in a covid style
event there would probably be a pretty quick recovery for a lot of them so something really
has bad has to happen to shake me out of core positions. I don't think something like that is going to happen anytime soon, maybe,
but I probably wouldn't get shaken. There's probably five or six names that I would not sell
no matter what happened. And so if a correction like that happens, I'll probably end up with a portfolio of like five or six or seven names.
Yeah.
No, that's fair.
We'll wrap it up.
The question is why.
We can't, but why is it, why are we falling?
And if it's a Powell-led conversation, to me, that's a, I'm definitely going in and looking to buy in here.
If it's AI is fake, it was all a hoax, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah,
then that's a very different conversation.
But underlying pace of innovation, continue to see it.
AI is not going to be a hoax.
There's been so much talk about this recently.
Remember that article that got shared where people were like,
oh, there's no return for AI investments.
You see that one?
Yeah, and there's also Sam Altman saying he thinks the valuations are crazy
or something like that.
Yeah, but the market's smarter than Sam Altman, I think.
Here.
Yeah, I know a lot of people, everyone wants to call a dot-com bubble.
Do I think open ai's
valuation is a little rich yeah i think it's a little rich okay but i think like overall
most of the froth here is in smaller companies and i think if you added them all up you're
talking about a couple like you're probably talking about globally in the ai trade you know
the the difficult thing is that i was going to put value on it but i'm actually not because
the difficult thing is that a lot of the valuation rise in microsoft and meta and
these stocks is also tied to ai right and so it's really difficult actually to calculate that.
So I won't put a number on that.
But what I will say is that I think a lot of the valuations
where people look at and say like, that's crazy, right?
Like that's stupid.
Like I think that's pretty niche.
I think if you added up all the instances of like,
oh, this AI company has a $10 billion valuation and has no revenue, I think all the instances of that are worth, what, a couple hundred billion bucks combined, which is like nothing on the global scale of things.
I mean, we have like a $60 trillion equity market, so it's nothing on the scale of the U.S. equity market either.
So that doesn't bug me.
You know, what does bug me, obviously, is the perpetual momentum that eventually needs to
stop, right? Markets can't just be in this like, perpetual state of upward momentum. But I think
underneath all of this, there's a narrative that's driving everything. And if I had to put my finger
on it, and take all the macro noise out of it, and take all of the rate cut stuff and Trump policy stuff and tariff policy stuff and
take all of the noise out and just say, hey, what is the overall, like, if somebody were to say,
look at the market the last five years post-COVID, right? Which I think is an important
line in the sand to draw because the global economy changed post-COVID, right? In more ways
than just the money printing, the global economy changed from a, you know, commercial standpoint
too, right? Like, you look at the rise of Uber Eats and DoorDash, like, what's DoorDash's market
cap today? You know, DoorDash's $104 billion of market cap, know and probably 30 or 40 billion worth of uber's
market cap that comes from these uh deliveries and postmates and whoever else and all the
i mean the grab in southeast asia all the global i mean what is that market worth just food delivery
globally since covet has probably seen an expansion of hundreds of billions globally.
And that's a product of COVID.
Are you a Grab fan at all?
I haven't really given that stock much thought.
I know I'm a fan.
I mean, I see what he sees.
To me, at a $20 billion market cap, I don't find it to be that attractive for upside.
But I see what he sees.
I guess the story is decent. But, uh god i keep losing my train of thought
fuck damn it every time you ask me a question i lose my train of thought um yeah okay so post
covid trends right like the the the food delivery trend post covid like you look at um the digitization
trend right like digitization trend was already happening pre-COVID.
If you look at the acceleration of the digitization trend,
like the app ecosystem, like I'm sure,
I don't know if this is true,
but I'm sure like, you know,
the per capita usage of like apps has increased, I imagine.
And now you add to all of this as an accelerant, this, you
know, new LLM ecosystem, right? Like, that's not really a product of COVID, but it's a post COVID
trend that's emerging. You look at all these post COVID trends, these are economy transforming
trends, really, right? They're behavior transforming trends. They are commercially relevant. They're relevant to consumer behavior. They're relevant to like every part of the economy, the way like international security is operated,
like and you look at all the conflicts that have happened. And when I'm talking about post-COVID,
I mean, really, this last five years, right, post-COVID, you look at all the geopolitical
conflicts that have happened since then. Warfare has been transformed. war in ukraine you know created a bottleneck for agriculture
and fertilizers and created a bottleneck for um uh uh metals the world and the world is
fundamentally different after covid even when you look at all this not just because of covid though
right it's because of all the things that happened after.
And also because of it, yeah,
but was it because of COVID,
but shutting down and people becoming more insular than you're,
you have these kind of slightly right-wing shift around the world,
the anti-immigration kind of legal immigration,
which is a crazy time where people,
the pendulum swings quite aggressively and it swung quite aggressively from one way to the other.
Yeah, it did.
And all these new technology trends emerged either by virtue of convenience or by virtue of necessity.
And you had all these new technologies that sort of got initially funded and spawned. And then AI topped it all off as an accelerant. So like,
you know, you look at all of this and you say,
what is it all indicating? Right. And to me, like, if I look at the last five years as one
big trade, what my conclusion would be to say, this is indicating that this is going to be economy
transforming, that the AI revolution is going to transform the economy. Now, will it happen
right away? No. That's why this whole rant started with me bringing up that headline to Evan about
the headline that came out saying
that people aren't making money on their AI investments yet. Of course they're not. Of
course they're not. Because this is one of those races where, like any other product,
there's investment before there's a goldmine, right? And in this case, that gold mine is an AI
gold mine that could literally replace human labor on a scale that we've never ever considered before.
You know, and you have skeptics that will come out and say, well, what happened during that promise during the, you know, dot com era?
Like, what happened to that promise?
Because during the dot com era, everyone said computers would replace people, and they never did.
That's such a brain dead take.
Like, I hear people saying that.
Anyone who says that, no offense to you, but that's a brain brain-dead take look I hear people saying that anyone who says that no offense to you but that's a brain-dead take okay because the
computers that we had then we're not thinking computers right and we don't
really have thinking computers yet either depending on what your
consideration of LLM is but we have AI products that can replace a lot of the redundant, useless
data analysis work that so much of the human population does. And in a physical form,
they can also replace a lot of the redundant, low-skill, physical labor that is done.
And that is the difference.
A computer with a keyboard could never, not only could never do that, but never purported
to do that in the first place.
That's the difference.
And same thing like with the Industrial Revolution.
People are like, oh, well, during the Industrial Revolution, people also had this fear that people point to those old newspapers where people are like, oh, my God, the steam engine is like the computers of the first era were used by humans. The difference now
is that they can do from a thinking and in a physical form, from a doing standpoint,
what a human can do. Like, I don't know if anyone's used the video versions of these AIs,
but like, they can effectively recognize and understand your environment completely.
In a physical form, they can thereby interact with that environment.
It's not a big leap to imagine that.
It's not a big technological leap required to go from point A to point B.
So I think that's what the market sees.
I think that's why markets have been so resilient.
I think that's like, and maybe markets are wrong.
You know, maybe it will end like the dot-com bubble.
Maybe, and look, to be frank, the dot-com bubble ended with a flash, right?
And a bunch of those companies disappeared.
But there were a lot of survivors that are around today that are much bigger companies.
Much, much bigger companies.
So there are some survivors
too right but yeah i mean all the speculative bullshit is obviously that's anyone's game that
can pop that bubble can pop at any time but you've got to just try your best during this little
five-year era we've had to accumulate some gems along the way
some gems that when the music does stop you'll be down to say you know what yeah everything's
cratering but i can rock with nebius or i can rock with kratos or i can rock with
you know the robin hood or whatever i mean whatever your your favorite stocks are you
can say you know what?
Yeah, the market's cratering.
Everything's down, but it's okay.
Hopefully this thing-
My question for you, Stock Talk, would be as we're kind of looking at this market
and we've had some points here where we were talking like you can see how long we've been
doing these spaces.
I can kind of see when we're getting bearish and stuff and we've had different different languages this is not really bear stock talk yet now this isn't fully
dismissive what are the bears talking about you're dumb there was also a point where we had okay guys
i'll give you exhaustive price action there was some more language that hey maybe maybe this is
a little bit you were paying attention you were paying attention let's go yeah i do a little bit
and now we're at the point where you still haven't, you were still saying today that you
haven't cut any, you haven't got any hedges at all. But, you know, you thought today maybe you're
going to have to cut some positions, maybe Friday. I'm curious on why you haven't actually gotten
some of those hedges yet. And,MA yet. What this next week or so
will look like if we go that way?
Is it, like, cutting positions, then hedges?
Are you getting the hedge first, then you're cutting positions?
Like, what does that look like for you?
And we'll hear it on Spaces, I guess, but...
I guess we'll talk about Friday.
This is my thinking on it.
So, this will actually be useful, even for the Discord people in the audience. This will be useful, because I haven't really talked about this. This is my thinking on it.
This will actually be useful, even for the Discord people in the audience.
This will be useful, because I haven't really talked about this.
Spy's at what today?
637.
637, right?
Yeah, pretty much 638. It closed at...
638.07 is what SPY closed at today.
Okay.
So the daily 21 EMA is at 635.55.
Okay.
So it's $2 and, you know, whatever, 60, 70 cents away.
Right.
Why hedge here?
You know what I mean?
Like, why not wait for a close blow?
Now, what some people will say is, well, StockDoc, look at August 1st.
On August 1st, we, you know, went through the 21 EMA and then we rebounded.
Yeah.
Okay.
It doesn't matter.
Hedges are a risk management thing.
You're not trying to make money on your hedges.
This is a stupid thing that people are dumb about.
And like some new traders in my discord also don't get this.
Like when I alert hedges, like sometimes I'll alert hedge and it'll go down like 20% the next day.
And people are like, what the hell?
And I'm like, yeah, dude, that's what you want to happen. That's what you want. That's literally what
you want to happen, right? Because you're net long. You're net long with a hedge. You want
your stocks to go up. So you want your hedge to go to zeros. People don't understand this.
They missize their hedges as a consequence of this. You should be sizing it at most at a couple percent of your portfolio, or at least
for me, that's what I do, because I'm never that bearish. Even when I am bearish, I'm never that
bearish. In February, after the deep seek sell-off, when I got my hedges, I think I sized it at like
3%, but because the sell-off was so severe it ended up becoming like 6 or 7% it actually like
saved my portfolio at the lows of April uh my drawdown would have been way worse if I didn't
have them but yeah so for me it's like okay look Kevin was talking about this earlier too and
Kevin's right premiums are still cheap right now for hedges right but like how much more expensive
will premiums be for hedges if I wait for a six below $635.55 instead of buying them right now?
They'll be a little more expensive, but they won't be that much more expensive.
And then what? If I get faked out like they did on August 1st, okay, so what? I burn my hedges.
Who cares? The portfolio is still net long. My portfolio will just stampede that with performance.
So it won't matter. I've never, ever, ever regretted burning a hedge to zero because that's the point.
That's literally the point.
And if you really want to be like strategic with it, you, you, you, you close the hedge
for a lot, like a 50, 60% loss on a recapture of the 90 MA.
If you really want to be as efficient as possible
with your money on on hedge management then you say okay on a 90ma recapture on the daily end i'll
just close the edge like you can do it like that too you don't have to let it go to zero i generally
don't care because i size them so small i'm just like whatever i'll let it go to zero and sometimes
you get faked out on 90ma recaptures, right? Fake outs don't just happen to the downside.
Sometimes the markets will let a 90 and Mary capture happen and then they'll dunk it on you.
So that's a possibility as well, right? So you just have to decide like how you want to manage your portfolio and what you want to do.
Some people don't hedge at all.
You know, I have friends who do well in the markets who don't hedge at all, right?
But granted, most of them are newer to the markets and have only ever seen like a raging bull market. So that's probably why they don't hedge at all right but granted most of them are newer to the markets and have only ever
seen like a raging bull market so that's probably why they don't but um like one of those friends
got killed in 2022 because you refused to hedge when the markets broke down right and that's
another reason why reading charts is important right like um like a lot of the dip buyers in
april right who like bought the lows on broken charts are like, look at me, dude.
Like I bought the absolute lows. Like I'm a fucking genius, you know?
And they're like parading it, right?
The reason that in my view that that's not smart,
long-term decision-making to buy a broken chart is because you,
you actually don't know if that recovery is,
is going to sustain until the chart rebuilds itself.
And the perfect example of that is 2022,
where a lot of people who bought,
a lot of people bought the first 9-ish percent decline,
thinking it was like a major correction.
And then we saw a peak to drop decline of 27% in the indexes,
27% on the index, the S&P 500 in 2022, right?
Peak to drop.
That means there were individual stocks were down 80
right so you know that is a scenario where the dip buyers would have said oh fuck why did i buy the dip
you know because many of those dip buyers you're all were already long going into 2022
You know, because many of those dip buyers, you're all we're already long going into 2022.
Markets go down 9%.
They add to already long exposure to a stock that proceeds to go down 60 or 70%.
In 2022, you're not singing that song.
So, yeah, on a consistent basis, sometimes you're going to get lucky catching a knife and trying to buy a dip on a broken stock and a broken chart.
It's not going to reward you in the long run.
I've never done that.
I never had to do it. And I have great entries on all my stocks. So did that just happen
by coincidence? No. I buy stocks as they're emerging. Like I talk a lot about that setup
that I love where a stock is pinched underneath its 200 day moving average with an inclining 921
EMA. It's pinched in that setup. I love that setup because that is a stock that's proving
that it is attempting to build structure, right?
The shorter moving averages are attempting to merge above a long,
really the most important moving average from an institutional standpoint,
which is the 200-day moving average, 200-week, 200-month.
That's like an institutional favorite thing to look at. And, you know,
that's a simple reference point for a lot of people. Like I believe, I believe Charlie
Munger even referenced the 200 week moving average. If I'm not incorrect, is that it?
Evan, ask an LLM that say, did Charlie Munger reference the 200 week moving average? Might
have been the 200 day, but ask him that.
Are you there, Evan?
Yeah, I'm looking it up.
Yeah, my phone's about to die, so I don't want to.
No, it's 10% still.
I'm good.
Do not spit, but he widely quoted as advocating a strategy involving the 20-week moving average.
strategy involving the 20-week moving average.
Oh, okay.
Munger said, quote,
if all you ever did was buy high-quality stocks
on the 200-week moving average,
you would beat the S&P 500
by a large margin over time.
Yeah, so you said 200-week?
Yeah.
Read that quote again.
If all you ever did was buy high-quality stocks
on the 200-week moving average,
you would beat the S&P 500 by a large margin overtime.
So now you guys know that I'm not bullshitting because Charlie Munger said the same thing to me.
So there you go.
Well, you said the same thing to Charlie Munger, but we'll let it go.
That's true.
But I didn't say that because of Charlie Munger.
I do trade consistently off the 200 day
and 200 week and 200 month.
Like, and it's something that,
the reason Charlie Munger said it
is not because it's Charlie Munger's idea either.
It's just an institutional thing.
Like, they look at these things
because it's, your price has memory, right?
Like, buyers and sellers and
shareholders have memory. And when, when people say that, I don't, what they mean is not literally
that it's not literally that price itself has memory, that the numbers have memory, but that
the shareholders have memory and the, that memory is communicated to them by
their brokerage accounts right like you buy a stock at 123 you as a shareholder are going to
react a certain way when the stock is 123 you know you're either a buyer there or you're a seller
there you know and that that that's really what are about. It's about this idea of like trying to blend the data with your expected psychology of what's going to happen.
That's why things like volume matter.
That's why price reacts to moving averages so often because people are watching them.
People like prospective dip buyers of those stocks are saying, I'm going to wait till this thing retest the 50
day moving average and they're buying them or the 200 day moving average and they're buying them.
Like why do you think so many stocks act perfectly off that? Like I was talking earlier about
Kratos, Nebby, so many stocks like this week that held their either their 21 day moving averages or
their nine week moving averages like perfectly, like to the penny or a couple of pennies off like that's not a coincidence right it's because there's a consensus of people
that are looking at these things and that's why i also advocate for simple takes on charts like
i went over uh price or observing structure last night and like i bet you some of the technical guys on here would
watch that workshop and be like what do like he has no indicators on he has nothing on like
i have nothing on my charts you know just moving average is just price and when you look at it to
me simply it gives you the ability to benefit of higher probability decisions because what you're really trying to bet on is
what is something that a lot of participants are watching and a lot of participants are not
watching super niche things is that's just the truth like the the mass of participants are not
watching incredibly niche thing and for a catalyst trader i need it to be the mass of participants right
like i don't trade biotechs i'm a catalyst trader who you know who's looking at events that i want
to be recognized by the broader market and i want them to react to it and buy the stock that's why
i'm surprised you're not a biotech guy based on dude i just don't know the industry well enough and like your failed med student there's too much there's too much there's too much um uh like it's too much binary moves
off that like i i can't stomach positions just going down like 50 like that like that just
you know that would kill me i couldn't size things confidently. So, I mean, there's
some biotechs I've traded, dude, this is like, dude, oh my God, there's one, oh dude,
I don't want to check the price of it right now. I'm going to fucking be so bad. Oh my
God. Okay. It's not as high as I thought it was. was okay but there's this one biotech that i did trade
last year that was one of my best trades last year uh atyr that i bought like um god i don't
remember when i bought it but i think i bought it like a like close to a buck and like sold it like
close to like three or four bucks but um yeah this one's actually still near that price it's like 4.90 or
five bucks it went as high as seven but yeah that's that's one biotech that i did trade last
year atyr but um i sold it too early a little too early um but anyway yeah i don't really trade
biotechs that often i just like i don't like to trade stuff i don't understand like if you were to go through my portfolio right now and like ask me about
um every stock like i could talk to you about it for 30 minutes
like every stock i own i can talk to you about it for 30 minutes and a lot of them i didn't
do much research on it just like know the company by relation
to industry research i've done on another um stock but like i don't think you need to be
that in depth on the knowledge of the stuff you own but i'll tell you it fucking helps
like it fucking helps it makes like position management way less stressful when you when
you can like you understand everything you understand the industry you understand like
where the competitive role is you understand like all those things it just like makes you so much
more at peace with with managing your position so yeah that's how i feel i think you you should do
that if you have time and i think
a lot of people think they don't have time but they do have time just like a lot of people think
they don't have time to like go to the gym but they do have time or like a lot of people don't
think they have time to like do these things but everyone has time to do these things
the people over every hour and a half ranting yeah exactly exactly i just spent an hour and a half ranting. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. I just spent an hour and a half ranting, and I'm a very busy person.
And so you have time.
You have time.
Whoever you are out there.
Hey, you down below also just listen to me.
I bet you out of here.
And look, there's like 400 people that have been here with us for like three hours.
You 400 people, all of you, if any of you are out there saying i don't have time
to research the stocks i buy you're fucking lying okay because you've been listening to the show
for three hours so you are we love you all for listening but you are lying if you're one of
those people that says you don't have time yeah we're not saying change necessarily change what
you're doing but we are saying you learn you're lying to Yeah, we're not saying change, necessarily change what you're doing. But we are saying you're lying to yourself.
Yeah, we're saying you're lying to yourself.
But, you know, you should do that.
Do some research on it.
Yeah, trust me.
Your life will be easier.
You'll make more money.
Everyone will be happier.
Society will improve as a result of everyone being happier and richer.
And then the market will go higher as a result of more innovation as a result of everyone being happier and richer and And then the market will go higher as a result of more innovation
as a result of everyone being happier and richer
and having higher conviction in their stocks.
And then the companies will get bigger
and more innovative.
And then we'll create this massive network effect
of the market going up endlessly.
That'd be great, right?
That's like that meme
where they have the futuristic...
You know what meme I'm talking about?
The city and the person walking their dog, yeah.
Yeah, like that.
But anyway.
All right.
It's a good place.
We'll see you guys tomorrow.
We appreciate y'all.
Make sure you're following this account with the host.
This space is Stock Talk as well.
If you're not here,
if you're still in here,
you're probably already following Stock Talk.
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If you guys are,
I'm sure a lot of you guys are in the discord as well,
but we're live on these spaces every single week,
every single Monday through Thursday,
three to 5.
P.M.
Eastern,
at least uh today
a day like today it's 6 30 p.m eastern but um yeah we're always going to be here free i know
stock talking doing a lot of extra stuff i stock market news will financial uh you know we're all
doing our things so yeah we appreciate you for hanging out with us a couple yeah a couple of
you have probably been hanging out with us for like three
years every single day.
So we appreciate you. We'll catch you all tomorrow.
Have a good one,
team. Thank you.
