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STOCK MARKET TALK | NETFLIX LIVE EARNINGS
Recorded: April 17, 2025 Duration: 2:02:51Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic market landscape, Netflix's anticipated earnings report is set to unveil new growth avenues, particularly through its ad-supported tier, while Eli Lilly's positive trial results signal growth in biotech. Meanwhile, UnitedHealthcare faces a decline following disappointing earnings, and strategic partnerships in the ride-sharing sector could reshape industry dynamics.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. good afternoon everyone how are we doing can i get a check, Evan? I'm having all kinds of crazy audio issues.
Good? Awesome. Awesome.
All right, well, we'll work to get our speakers up here on stage.
We are moving down at the current moment.
We've moved up overall on the day, taking a look around the market here.
Happy Thursday, by the way, to everyone tuning in this afternoon for Stocks on Spaces.
Yeah, here we are.
SPY up half of a percent.
QQQ barely green.
Big divergence today, only up 0.15% as I'm looking at my screen and as it's pulling back
here a little bit.
A couple of notable names around the market.
NVIDIA down 3% today.
Broadcom down 2% today.
We do have some green names out there.
Apple up a percent and a half.
Meta slightly green.
Netflix ahead of their earnings call this afternoon.
And their earnings report is green by 1%, trading at 972.
Will be very interesting.
I know I'm excited for those earnings.
I know Evan will be all interesting i know i'm excited for those earnings i know evan will be
all over those as well as others and yeah we'll see what happens though kind of looking around
to see what else really stood out to me i know several of these retail names have done well
today costco's up three percent walmart's up two and a half percent home depot up three percent
most of the banks are green uh looking across the board here, what else is sticking out?
Uber's up over 3%.
And yeah, Bitcoin, 85,000.
Green by 1% here, up about 1,000 since last night's turnover on their daily close time.
And here we are.
I'm not sure where everyone's at today.
We'll get everyone up here.
Some people may have checked out for the weekend a little bit earlier. We did have all kinds of news stories.
The Italian prime minister was visiting the White House for luncheon today, sat down with Trump
and a little conversation that we got to watch. We also saw several comments from Trump come out.
Trump kind of took it out on a old Jerome Powell there for a little bit.
Several headlines around that. A couple headlines around deals being made very soon.
Trying to reassure that deals are in the works and will be made and they'll be great. Those were the
direct quotes that I saw there. But yeah, that's where we're at. Evan, anything really stick out
to you today? I know UNH had bad earnings this morning.
That was way down.
Some other news stories throughout the day.
UNH was definitely one that's standing out, dragging the Dow Jones,
the largest holding in the Dow Jones, down about 20%.
I haven't really checked intraday.
There was a couple other stories going around,
which I think you hit on pretty well.
This Trump-P powell one was
uh one that was i don't know the most interesting one i guess for me there was another story of the
wall street journal the last little bit that president trump has been reportedly been for
months uh privately been discussing if he should fire jerome powell he hasn't or tried to i guess
i don't know um i don't even know if he can but um yeah he had someone that he's kind of
named as a successor and the successor I believe it was Kevin Walsh or something I I believe the
last name was Walsh I don't remember the first one but he was even saying that that he thinks
that he should just let Powell stay on his term but a lot of language today telling Powell basically
you should cut that was the uh the summation uh of that language that I was hearing today.
So that was one of the directions we definitely had most of our news stories from the morning.
We have Netflix earnings coming up after the close.
Eli Lilly had a big news story this morning. One of their pills for their weight loss drugs had a positive clinical trial.
Positive results from one of their drugs that's in that stock up.
Initially 10% in the morning. trial, positive results from one of their drugs. That's in that stock up. Initially,
10% in the morning. I haven't double-checked where it's been going on from that one. And then,
yeah, we talked about UnitedHealthcare there for half a second. Maybe we'll double-click more into it. But UnitedHealthcare getting destroyed after missing out on EPS and revenue and lowering its
forward guidance, lowering profit expectations. The market was not a fan of that one.
So it should be an interesting last little bit in the market.
Again, like I said, Netflix earnings after the close.
And interestingly, we have the market closed tomorrow.
Tomorrow's Good Friday,
but it's just a little weird
that Netflix is still reporting earnings here.
So yeah, there might be a couple news stories,
a couple speakers,
different stuff going on throughout the hour
and we'll bring them your way.
Send out a couple more invites.
We've got Wolfie up here to kick us started, but it should be an interesting day.
I'm looking forward to it.
Yeah, for sure.
There was a decent amount of headlines and stuff coming out through the day.
Interesting price action.
Tech, very, very weak relatively to the rest of the
market. Inflows was actually pretty strong in the S&P today. And you see SPY greatly outperforming
tech. You look at some of these big tech names, especially the semis, even Microsoft, Amazon,
not doing very well. Wolfie, you're the first one up here. You're the only one up here actually
right now. We'll see where everyone else is at, but great to have you.
What thoughts are on your mind today? Did you see Trump dunking all over Powell?
I, uh, hold on. One of the sounds are cutting out.
I don't know if you can hear me. Can you hear me? Yeah, I got you.
Okay, cool. Um, no, I, I actually just saw the headlines.
I'm trying to minimize my, you know,
live Trump engagement as much as possible because he's going to say the things.
But, you know, I pat myself on the back. I told you this is how it's going to happen.
I told you that the China thing would happen. Watch TikTok.
It'll give you an insight about how they're going to move forward on tariffs or not.
They kicked the can on TikTok 75 days, which, you know, let him bolster and hunker down a little bit.
I think this is going to be the next thing more important than what trump said is to me about the the
engagement is um yesterday's comments from powell so powell like the main thing about
these fed chairmen is they really value their legacy, right? So nobody wants to be
remembered as the guy or girl, in this case, guy that ruined everything. So there was a little bit,
you know, halfway through his tenure where it looked like Powell was going to ruin everything.
And he was able to kind of steady that ship a little bit and talk down to we have a dual mandate employment
inflation employment inflation and just kind of like stay out of the way enough to let markets
kind of do their thing and then you know cut rates a couple times here in the last uh several months
to kind of like give it a little bit of fuel right so now he's kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place because
you know populist policies which is kind of what we're doing right now um or you know insular
policies at best kind of by design intentionally or unintentionally breed some form of inflation
also if you know some of the things happen the way that they are going to happen it's going to
it's going to develop into some sort of unemployment event as well so from a fed standpoint
he's got to like just stay out of the way long enough to be able to figure out which way it's
going to fall and then react to it the second thing is he he's in his term until the end of May
or the beginning of May of 2026.
So he's kind of like at the tail end.
And so the entire time he's been in office,
like we always joke,
purple tie means bullish.
He doesn't really say anything.
He just said,
no, yesterday he really, to me,
spoke to, you know,
hunkering down on his legacy. It was kind of like gloves are off Powell to me spoke to uh you know hunkering down on his legacy it was it was kind of like gloves
are off powell to me um and so like some of the things he said he's like economy is likely to slow
as unemployment goes up inflation is likely to go up as tariffs come in uh the unexpected
unexpected tariff policy is bad like he he's he's saying the thing that he normally doesn't say and to me it's
like i think he's looking at it from a perspective of uh he knows trump likes to jawbone the markets
he knows trump likes to jawbone policy use the media to kind of you know get his angle out there
and then can retract it at any point and the thing thing that, that stood out to me with Powell is he's basically saying like,
no, no, no, you're not pinning this crap on me.
I've, I've stirred the ship this long.
I've told you what it's going to be.
It's going to be unemployment and it's going to, it's going to be max employment and, uh,
inflation.
I'm going to stay with that.
And so, you know, as I said, a few, a few weeks ago, maybe a month and a half ago, I
think we're going to get there in the summer.
There's going to be like a push-pull between the Fed, which is Powell, and Trump, which is not going to, in my opinion, based on how he's handled it so far and doubling down yesterday, he's not going to, you know, ruin his legacy, quote unquote, in his eyes, so that he can just like kiss the ring for the next, you know, year, especially since they've basically told him,
we're going to replace you. So that's from the Powell-Trump thing. That's kind of the thing I
want to watch. The longer that the tariff stuff overlaps with this stuff, the more it could kind
of erode some sort of confidence. I actually think if Powell just listened to Trump or any of these,
because Evan mentioned that the the one of
the nominee candidates that that they mentioned has said that he's going to stay out of it and
Trump stayed out of it whatever like that's the approach they should take because you know any
any sort of kiss the ring rhetoric out of the fed and just like abandon what they've been saying for
years is gonna in my opinion will kind of breed some sort of like insecurity with investors because like now there's a new regime.
So I think it's going to set up as a battle.
That's that's the starting point.
You guys mentioned Eli Lilly.
I mentioned that one on Monday when I think it was Monday when Red Dog and Logical went back and forth on the bios.
and um logical went back and forth on the bios i said if you don't want any of the um
uh any of like the the smaller cap bios xbi stuff you can kind of go that way it's back
in the support up against that 700 gives you a shot you know didn't expect the headline to come
got a headline cool deal with it um but i also think overall this is kind of market that you're
in you just gotta you just gotta trade levels um and then look for flavor of the week, flavor of the month, flavor of the whatever.
Flavor of the week this week, in my opinion, was Ackman and his HTZ play.
Basically about 20% of the company, allegedly 40% plus is short.
And then there's a lot of option activity around it i want to pay attention to that one in
the coming weeks because i think if if he can get you know some of these like wall street bets people
involved since all of the other stocks um that they generally trade or people generally trade
are kind of plus minus uh they don't meaning they don't really go anywhere. They rally, they fail, they rally, they fail. Any kind of, you know, additional juice might go that way.
And if you look at where it failed today, basically filled right up against the downtrend.
So I pushed through that nine level. I think that was the level that it hit in the after our session yesterday.
Today, I pushed through that probably gives it momentum up to that 200 day for reference, 200 day.
It's flat and it sits around 13. 200 day for reference, 200 day.
It's flat and it sits around 13.
So, you know, it's doubled in price.
I'm not saying anybody chase it here.
Just saying pay attention in the next couple of weeks, how that one plays out.
I kind of feel like management at some point might try to get some cash out of this.
So that could be a tape bomb. But other than that like i really think uh if there's nowhere
else for these people to go these smaller players and these gamma guys they might go here so i want
to pay attention to that last you guys the last thing is netflix netflix comes after the bell
last time when we were uh when they had earnings we we were shocked how they how the street was so
off sides not being able to hit the netflix stuff I think they had a lot of live event stuff. I remember one of the headwinds at the time was currency.
I'm kind of curious to see if currency is going to be a little bit of a tailwind here.
Kind of curious since they said they're going to stop giving some of the data that they gave in the past
if it'll be viewed as a positive thing or if they just miss how how these derivative MAG7, like FAANG names trade around it.
I think it's kind of like a wait and see.
For me, Evan kind of said it's interesting that they're reporting on a Thursday ahead of a Good Friday
where there's no um there's no market open i think if if they're gonna have a bad
quote-unquote bad quarter or like a sloshy quarter that's probably the ideal time to do it so it'd
be interesting to see if that's what happens if not you know we could get a little squeeze into
the weekend in the post session and then kind of like reset uh Mylean is it's probably going to be a premium burn event.
I'm going to give you just enough to like appease people
since the bar has kind of been re-rated low enough
and it's going to be not enough to kind of like squeeze it.
But what do I know? We'll see.
I'll stop there though.
It would be interesting because Netflix came in and the other day,
maybe this is what you're going to say there, Netflix the other day, they came in and they the other day maybe that's what you're
going to say there and netflix the other day they came in and said that they were going to
by 2030 double their uh market cap double their revenue triple their their operating profit 80
billion dollars of revenue so be interested in them to come in with negative language right
after that so no so so they also said they also, they're not sure how they're going to get there,
but that's their goal. It's good to have goals, right? I'm not saying they're going to potentially
have negative language. I'm just saying that the quarter they had last time really blew it out of
the water compared to what people were expecting. I remember like we had a stock talk rant live
on the back of it. Like how did the streak get this so wrong? Everybody was so off sides,
right? So I think off sides, right?
So I think this time, from a positioning standpoint,
people are a little bit more positioned for either way,
whether it's kitchen sink because of tariffs
or whether it's they're expecting to be tariff proof.
so um yeah i'm very interested in netflix in the the live sports i think the live sports is a huge
thing and i'm wondering if they're working on expanding that if they talk about that at all
i'll definitely be paying attention to that wolfie another thing that you said there when you were
talking about actman and hertz actman back in back in February also took a partnership in, or a stake in Uber, right?
Yep, Uber.
Are those two dots we should be connecting?
I don't know, man.
I actually think, I think the dot for the Hertz thing is more of like an insular tariff thing.
The Hertz thing is more of like an insular tariff thing.
So if tariffs are going to stick and cars are going to have a higher resale value,
in the short run, that inventory that Hertz has now has less of a depreciation and more of a value than pre-priced.
So it could just be a tailwind that way. But, you know, I, you know,
they're going to sell cars, I guess, I don't,
I don't know what the Uber connection would be other than, you know,
they're going to use the fleet. I mean, it could,
it could be a thing that he kind of like touts to pump his book.
But I actually think for me i view
it more of as like a tariff thing if you just take a look at like um avis car car um it's up
pretty nicely today as well so to me that speaks to more of like you know a a late um a late a late, um, uh, a late, a late entry to that. Um, the last, the last part, I guess, if you were
gonna, um, you know, try to connect dots with Uber would be that they, they allow you to rent
cars now, but I don't know how much of their business they actually get from that. Um, I guess
maybe you could argue that once these cars that they have kind of hit
their mile peak they could you know rent them as autonomous or something i don't know but
i think it's always a way for me it's more of like a tariff thing
yeah that makes sense i just so recently i can't remember how long ago this was, at some point there was a conversation that, that I guess sparked a thought in my head and we were talking about Lyft.
It was, I don't think it was on this space. I don't know what space it was on.
It's been a little while.
It was an earnings space with Hamid.
And what we talked about was a company like Uber could acquire a Rivian,
which is an auto manufacturer and has like an autonomous unit that they're
working on. And then they also have, I think,
six to 8 billion in cash and it could be like a nice little acquisition for
them to kind of have the full autonomous thing because they tried to go with
RoboTaxi and Tesla or try
to get Tesla involved and Tesla declined to have Uber be the source of their ride share network.
So where my mind went beyond that was if a company, it could be Uber and it could be
Hertz, it could be Avis and it could be Lyft or whoever. I was thinking if you're thinking about
a merger, and honestly, my brain initially thought of this more from Lyft's perspective,
but like, okay, if you're trying to expand your horizons, hey, here's a one-stop app where you can
rent a car or rent a ride, except quote unquote, get a ride somewhere. And just having the multiple
offerings in one spot, like that seemed like a merger thought that made sense. And then now I'm seeing Bill Eichmann in these two. And I just wonder if that makes sense somewhere down the line is okay, does Uber, you know, is there some type of merger here where you basically you have a one stop shop where you can get your ride hailing, you can get your food delivered, whatever that is, but you can also rent a vehicle if you wanted to.
And then knowing the future of autonomous, the potential of it, at some point, there's your third piece of that umbrella that would cover several sectors of business right there.
I don't know. That was just the thought that we had recently.
Yeah, I think it would make sense.
I don't disagree with it making sense or not.
I just feel as though if that was the play or if that was the angle,
I kind of feel like we would see Uber up a lot more than it is today.
I feel like it's up kind of like on a rounding error basis.
And it's not really acting like that.
To me, look, a lot of these guys, one of the things that they have to do to generate income is look at special situations.
If you go back, Hertz was actually bankrupt and delisted.
So this is not generally a recurrently profitable business in general because of the depreciation and how things changed.
profitable business in general because of the depreciation and how things changed.
But I feel like 40% short interest, guy can take a 20% stake and can juice it with options.
It's like a really nice little spot for him to generate revenue and generate income and
just kind of have like a, have a win under his belt.
It's like, to me, how I look at it.
Also the tariff thing.
And if he wants to spin the Uber thing and if they want to go down that Avenue, uh, I feel like once you get that
headline or once you kind of get people sniffing out that way, you're going to have, you know,
multiple, multiple days of that chase on the back of it. Um, which, you know, would give you an
opportunity. And one last piece, uh, and then we'll get around to some of the others up here.
Wolfie,ie you you kind
of alluded to this a little bit the the gamma guys and stuff i feel like right now with the market
being choppy to down any name that like gets a little bit of momentum like it seems like the
market's hungry for a trade and that's why you're seeing some of these ipos go crazy while you're
seeing you know when bill ackman announces a position
that people just chase it and it just gets completely ran like crazy. And that's kind
of the way I felt it. A hundred percent, a hundred percent. And then the other thing is there's just
not as much of them, right? So just look at the IPO market. It's been dead for years. So like,
it's almost like people are just waiting for, you know, some kind of meat on the
bone to go with. I mean, even, even Hertz, right? Like Hertz didn't move until like 1245. I mean,
it did move a little bit, but it didn't really have that move until like 1245 or 1240 PM Pacific
time, excuse me, 345 Eastern yesterday. And then it ran from $ dollars to like six in 20 minutes so you know
these these moves people i feel like people people investors um momentum gamma guys they're all kind
of like looking for that um and you know with some of these levered etfs having to flatten out
and sell-offs and and rebalancing their books
on the back of these sell-offs on a daily basis there's not really much meat on the bone
ipo market like you said you had newsmax go parabolic um you had a a bull go parabolic in
like two days um and then you know recently you had the one service titan which is one i own
it broke out to an all-time high.
People are just kind of looking for these new, in my opinion,
these momentum traders are looking for these new special situation
or IPO names to kind of like juice and lever.
Yeah, that was kind of my thinking.
We're on the same page there.
Even some of these other names that have been flying like crazy, the gold miner names, which,
I mean, yes, gold's up, they're running, but it seems like the moves are exaggerated because
of the market just hungry, traders hungry for a move and finding some alpha somewhere.
I do want to get around to the rest of the panel.
StockSniper, I think you were the next one to jump up here. So I would love to see if you had any thoughts around the market or
I know you've got some Netflix probably stats that you want to drop for us.
Yeah, I do. I don't know if you want to come back to me a little bit closer towards the close
for the Netflix earnings. But, you know, as far as my approach in this market like I said, you know, I don't know maybe
two weeks ago I
Said basically, you know, I'm gonna continue to buy stocks as we continue to go down and you know
I feel pretty good about some of the dips that I've bought and again
I could see us going both directions right now. I don't know. I'm waiting for some China news any day now
and I think that we'll see an extremely aggressive move in one direction from whatever comes out of this Chinese news.
But and if we do end up trading lower, I'm going to be prepared to buy some more stock.
And if we trade higher, then I guess I made some money.
So, you know, honestly, I'm just taking it day by day, watching, waiting for some more China news.
You know, honestly, I'm just taking it day by day, watching, waiting for some more China news.
I don't really want to deploy all of my capital at any point, anytime soon, because I want to see more.
So what's exactly going to happen? What is really coming?
This earnings season is going to be pretty weird, especially with the tariffs in play, because we're not going to be seeing guidance.
And obviously, I mean, they probably don't know exactly how to guide. But yeah, I'm pretty much just waiting for the Chinese information to come out about tariffs and see what's happening there.
And that's where I'm pretty much going to make most of my decisions off of that information.
Perfect. Yeah. And when we get closer to that earnings release, I'll get you to go through the applied move, some of those pieces of it as well.
Logical, how are you today, sir?
I'm having a fantastic day.
I mean, this is a double win for me for my portfolio.
And this is why we do stock picking.
I will give you two great things that happened in my portfolio. The biggest news,
I don't know if you guys have discussed it at all today, but there was an unfavorable ruling against
Google in the ad tech antitrust trial. I've probably mentioned that a dozen times on these
spaces, not because I am invested in Google, but on the contrary, I am invested in the open internet ad tech players on the supply side, namely Magnite and Pubmatic.
Both of those stocks are up 10 to 16% right now.
And, oh my goodness, this is such a huge win, and I'll walk through it a little bit.
Essentially, the judge found that they have anti-competitive practices on the supply side.
Funny enough, they found they weren't able to rule against Google on the demand side. So this is not
a tailwind for the trade desk unless they get, you know, with their OpenPath product, get more
onto the supply side. But this is huge news in terms of inflow of
business if there's potential divestments from Google for the small cap ad tech players on the
supply side. So for a long time, the supply side has been overlooked. I've been personally waiting
for this verdict for 18 months. So this really feels like a watershed moment right now. I added
on this news, I think that this, I don't necessarily think that this move has really been digested yet by market participants because who the hell knows about Pubmatic and Magnite?
Probably nobody.
Magnite's under $2 billion company.
Pubmatic is under $500 million company.
So we don't know exactly what the implications of this are going to be. And, you know, it's not going to be a
straight line in terms of, you know, how long does it take? Is there going to be appeals,
all those things. But what I do know is there was a ruling, I highly doubt it's going to get
appealed. Um, because they don't make those rulings, you know, on a flimsy basis.
So I think, you know, this is going to stick,
and there are revenue implications here.
And so I just made a post, actually, if you want to go read it,
but the gist of it was, look, Google made $344 billion of revenue
in the trailing 12 months.
If they even took a 1% hit to revenue,
I mean, I'm talking nothing.
Like, I'm talking a rounding error for them.
You know, 1% of revenue is, you know, $3.4 billion.
To put that in context, you know, Pubmatic did less than $300 million of revenue last
year.
So, you know, if that $3 billion just just gets moved from you know, Google to these other parts of the ecosystem
I mean that is a huge huge influx for these small cap companies
And this is what I was calling the call option for owning these stocks because they're very cyclical
They're very tied to the ad market and as we know marketing budgets are getting slashed right now due to the uncertainty around
tariffs and that's why a lot of these stocks are down 50 60 percent in a short time frame especially
the small caps they get sold off first um but you know they've been sold off and left for dead and
um in my view like the valuations that you're buying these companies that are
extremely cheap and they just got the call option. Um, so yeah, I mean, I don't know what the
timeline is going to look like for, you know, the, to flow through to the fundamentals. Uh,
but clearly these businesses just got a huge tailwind, um, for the longer term. So I'm very excited. I added a ton to those positions
today. They kept ripping after. I'm not selling anything yet. And I am a little nervous heading
into this Netflix earnings. I won't lie because I do have an outsized Magnite position now
because Magnite is the Netflix partner on the ad tier. So, you know, I do think that Netflix
will do well and, you know, but we know marketing budgets are getting slashed. So in terms of some
Netflix preview there, you know, they came out earlier this week saying we're going to like,
I don't know, get to a trillion market cap, but we're going to do all these things. And we know
from their last few reports, the ad tier is what's driving a lot of the Netflix growth. So that's a great tailwind for a player like Magnite, because they're participating in the upside and the volumes there.
mental thesis for owning Magnite is that, you know, Netflix is, you know, a great partner to
have. And, you know, at some point I thought maybe they would just acquire Magnite as like a tuck-in
acquisition. But now with this Google ruling, I highly doubt that's going to happen.
So yeah, in the near term, I'm still a little cautious and a little scared about what can
happen on the, you know, marketing budget side of things and what these ad companies are going to report.
But if I saw weakness,
I would probably start selling other holdings.
If Magnite fell 10%, 20%,
I would probably start on near-term weaknesses.
That's when I would probably start selling other holdings
and buy the dip. And I think that, so yeah, because the way I see it is, look, nobody's really
covering these small caps, right? But there are these moments where, you know, every bank in the
world covers Google. And so I think over the weekend, and actually Wells Fargo came out with
a note already today
when this ruling came in, basically saying there's meaningful upside for the supply side
ad tech players like Magnite, Pubmatic, et cetera.
So I know that over the weekend, there's going to be people who study Google at a research
bank or whatever investment bank.
They're going to come out with notes saying, hey, this is what we think on this ruling. This is the revenue impact. And as a result, they're going to say, well, who benefits?
And so I think, you know, Wells Fargo already spelled it out in their note today that it
benefits Pubmatic and Magnet. Now, what does that upside look like? I'm not sure. Um, but it's
going to, I mean, it's going to be significant because these are tiny companies and they're the leaders in that space.
So, um, yeah, and I was just kind of, it was just kind of crazy to see that, you know,
the trade desk didn't receive any ruling, like the man side, they had no favorable ruling
against, uh, uh, you know, the demand side platform of Google.
And that's why you saw the trade desk basically fade after their initial move.
People probably thought that it was an all in ruling Google lost everyone open internet wins.
But yeah, it was just on the supply side. So that's insane. Okay, yeah, so that's the one
big part of I think this is like something that I've been waiting for for a long time.
And then another big piece of news came out in my portfolio this morning.
I was stoked about that when I woke up. A company I own, Unicure, Q-U-R-E, is up 40% today because
they got a breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA, which means they're basically on this accelerated path towards approval. They are
the only viable potential cure for Huntington's disease. They've shown meaningful slowing
of that disease. So yeah, it's a really excellent company. And I have a portion of my portfolio.
If you look at my pinned tweet, I always talk about, I always break out my portfolio by my
holdings. And I have a portion of my portfolio in clinical biotechs. I don't ever
size those too big because I mean, let's be real, they're quite binary. So I try to keep those sizes
at around 2%. Uh, but again, like after a day, like today, now it's closer to three, 4%, right?
So, um, you kind of let those things size themselves. And that's how, you know,
I think a big part about portfolio management is position sizing and you got to, you know,
decide what the right risk is, et cetera. So I'm happy to see that that worked out. And obviously
there's a lot of positive implications for society when companies like that win. Um, and, uh, you know, I've talked about another company,
ClearPoint Neuro CLPT. Um, you know, they, they were a big winner. They faded a lot of their
move today. I won't lie. They're up 18% at some point. Now they're up just 6%. But ClearPoint
Neuro is the picks and shovels play for a lot of these, uh, clinical stage biotechs that will
hopefully get to commercialization. And Unicure is one of their partners.
So as their clinical stage biotech partners get closer to commercialization,
then the volumes for ClearPoint also increases.
So yeah, when there's meaningful progress in their partner's pipelines,
that is a net positive for ClearPoint because they get to participate in that upside. So yeah, just, just a very good day. And yeah, I am very long in this
market. I do have some shorts on to balance out my, my net long exposure, but yeah, again, I think you have to be very selective in what you own, uh, in
today's market. I don't think big tech works right now, not until, you know, we get valuation resets
at a minimum or China deals come through, et cetera. But even with tariffs, I mean, it's going
to be a big impact to revenues. And so that's why I've always talked about two segments of the market, which I've been very heavily involved in, which is biotech.
And I keep banging on that drum because, again, what did we get today?
We got good news.
because guess what? Tariffs don't matter for clinical trials. And on the commercial side of
Because guess what?
Tariffs don't matter for clinical trials.
things, um, you know, I would consider ClearPoint to be commercial based. Oh yes. Because they have
an FDA approved product, but they work with clinical stage companies. My point is people
are still going to need treatments. People are still going to need drugs. People are still
going to need medicine and that's not going to stop. Um, and you know, I talk about other,
uh, commercial stage biotech companies like ARQT, Arcutis. I've talked not going to stop. And I talk about other commercial stage biotech companies
like ARQT, Arcutis, I've talked about quite a bit. I just want to give an example there.
Look, let's say there are pharma tariffs, right? People just assume, hey, that's just bad
for all these biotechs or something like that, right? How are they not going to get hurt from
this? Well, if you look at the financials of an ARQT, they have 90%
gross margins, 9-0. So they have 10% on their COGS, their cost of goods sold.
So let's say that pharma gets hit with a 20% tariff. That's a 2% increase to COGS, right?
So it's not material. I mean, their gross margins go from 90% to 88%. And that's assuming they don't raise their prices by 2% to offset that. So, and again, this is when the economy is slowing. And I expect many companies to start removing and pulling their guidances, I think that biotech will end
up being one sector that will maintain their guidances and will potentially beat and raise
them as they would if there were tariffs or no tariffs. So anyways, I spoke a lot, but I'm very
excited about the Magnite Pubmatic opportunity moving forward. We'll see if we get any analyst
notes over the weekend. I'm a little nervous heading into this Netflix report. Of course,
now that I have an outsized position, I think ultimately longer term, it won't matter much. So I just got to be
able to stick and hold through it. And yeah, I mean, there's just always going to be progression
in these biotechs, whether they're on the commercial side and they're launching their
commercially approved products, they're ramping their sales, or it's going to be the clinical stage ones that are progressing through their trials. Anyways. Oh, sorry. I did,
I said there were two themes that I'm very interested in. One of them was biotech. I didn't
mention the second one. The second theme that I'm very interested in that I have probably 25% exposure in is Latin America.
I think that they've been basically the tariff winners
in a sense, because I believe they only got hit
with a 10% tariff.
They are out of all the headlines.
You know, everyone's focused on EU, Japan,
South Korea, China.
You're not really hearing much about Latin America,
which I like quite as good right now.
And you're seeing, you're not really hearing much about Latin America, which I like. Quiet is good right now. And you're seeing right-wing politicians win elections in Latin America.
Like you had Javier Mille in Argentina.
You had this week, you were messaging me about it.
But there was an election in Ecuador that just took place.
But there was an election in Ecuador that just took place.
And then, you know, in the next two years, you have Chile, Colombia, and Brazil with elections.
And so, you know, and they don't really have a bunch of trade with the U.S. right at this point.
So it's not, again, they're out of the headlines and those economies are changing as we speak.
So a lot of good names there.
Yeah, again, that's what I mean by being selective in this market. Like, maybe the last, you know, we're seeing that, you know,
with all the gold bugs who have been basically dunked on for the last, you know, 10, 15 years.
You know, this is why you want to have diversification.
This is why you want to be well-versed in the markets.
I think it's gone, you know,
the tech trade went a little bit too long
and it got too easy.
But now that we're sitting at two, three trillion, almost four
trillion market caps, you know, what's the upside? It's not the same as it was 15 years ago. People
always talk about, oh, well, Buffett bought Apple and did great. Yeah. Buffett bought Apple at $300
billion at eight times free cashflow. You're not doing that today. So just a tougher market and
it's a stock pickers market. And so even that is
tough because even the biotechs, as I said, are doing well. But when the entire market is selling
off and there's liquidity issues, all equities trade alike and they get sold off anyway. But
I do think that people will still look to allocate capital even in a downturn.
And just like in 2022, when energy and commodities were doing well, when inflation was rising, you know, there's always a bull market somewhere. So that's what I'm looking for this year.
I'll just have one follow up question. Why? Can you explain a little bit further why TTD did not get the same reaction? You said something about supply side versus Magnite and Pubmatics? Yes. Here's the note from Wells Fargo
that I saw earlier today.
It says, okay, I'll just read it.
Wells Fargo noted that the judge issued a mixed opinion
in the Google AdTech antitrust case,
finding an anti-competitive behavior
on the supply side of the programmatic market.
The opinion suggests that the government failed to prevail
on the demand
side of the market because there isn't evidence it represents a discrete digital ads category.
However, on the supply side, the judge ruled there is a discrete market and that Google
engaged in anti-competitive practices. While the remedy and appeal process needs to play out,
Wells Fargo sees meaningfully positive potential outcomes for
Magnite, Pubmatic, and the independent supply side platforms. Wells sees a more neutral outcome for
TradeDesk and the independent demand side platforms. So they just weren't able to prevail
on proving that there were anti-competitive behaviors, I guess, on the demand side.
Interesting. Appreciate that logical. Great rundown there. I almost forgot that news story
was even this morning, as much stuff has been going on today. But yeah, that was a big story
there early in the day around Google with the antitrust ruling that came out on the ad side
of stuff. Gary, we have you up here on stage. I haven't heard from you yet this afternoon.
How are you, sir? I'm good.
I sold half my Netflix position.
So I've got about half million dollars sitting in my bank account.
So listen, logical.
Maybe I'll go in for Magnite now.
But no, for me, it's Thursday before a long weekend.
I'm not doing a damn thing.
I sold half my Netflix position because I was up
120% on it. In fact, I had a huge tax bill that I had to pay yesterday or Tuesday because I had
huge capital gains. I took a bunch of capital gains in the first quarter. So I'm not in any
rush to get back into the market. I have put more money back into the market, but I'm still only 80% invested.
I'm comfortable being 95% invested.
And no offense, logical, but Netflix is included in FAANG, and that one's outperformed the market this year.
So my large-cap tech stuff has not been working great this year. So my large cap tech stuff has not been working great this year. But once the AI trade
gets back on, I just have this feeling that I'll be perfectly fine. I do think that NVIDIA though,
specifically, that's turned into a government commodity. Governments used to talk, and then
Stock Talk could probably talk way better about this than I can. But governments used to use energy as kind of the negotiating power and, hey, we've got this power over you for energy and blah, blah, blah.
I think Nvidia has turned into that, just a government commodity that the U.S. is going to use to try and get China to lever a little bit.
That's bad for a business.
And so I think you let it come in. I think if you can get it under 100, I think it's a little bit. That's bad for a business. And so I think you let it come in. I think if
you can get it under 100, I think it's a great one. I still question whether NVIDIA has the
crazy amount of demand that they had for those chips, the H100s that they were selling.
Why would you take a $5 billion write-off if there's that big of a demand? Or does everybody
just want the Blackwell?
But for me, I'm just kind of sitting around waiting for big tech to work.
AI is going to replace everything. I still think that it works long-term. I'm sitting there waiting, and I am still probably in the FAANG trade. And remember, FAANG is Facebook and Netflix,
which have both, I believe, year-to-date outperformed, if I'm not mistaken.
But again, I'm just...
Oh, yeah.
I wasn't against...
I actually think Netflix is the better one because it's a little bit more staple-y.
We haven't really tariffed digital revenues at this point.
Once that happens, then maybe.
And also, they have a lot of international growth through their ad tier right now.
So I'm actually... I said FANG as just kind of a general acronym.
Quit bashing on my large caps, man.
I don't bash on your small caps.
Don't bash on my large caps.
I mean, everyone bashes on my small caps, dude.
It doesn't have to be you.
I'm used to it, man.
I love them all.
So we're all in the same market.
We all just pick our plays and stuff like that.
But and by the way, thank you again, Wolfie, for calling me out the other day.
I mean, you know, positivity on this space. It's a nice thing to see.
But again, I'm still large cap. I still believe that the large cap wins.
I'm still heavily in Apple, even though, you know, when Jim Cramer cries on TV about Apple and NVIDIA,
let's just go back to when he cried on TV about Meta.
And then over the next year, it was three times.
I don't think that Apple and NVIDIA can do that because Logical brought it up brilliantly.
The market cap won't let them triple.
It just can't.
It's not going to.
But I'm just more comfortable in that space.
So what I'm doing, nothing.
Just have a good, good Friday and a good Easter.
So just for a point of clarity,
Meta is basically performing in line with the market so far this year.
Other than that, Netflix is outperforming.
Thanks for raining on the parade.
I appreciate it. No, it's not a not a rain i mean at the end of the
day it's what you're comfortable owning right so yeah it's not a rain you you're you you've spoken
to owning these things for like a decade some of them so yeah it's a little bit different different
games my average apple price is like two bucks buta doesn't make me feel comfortable with, what is it, OpenAI coming out with an Instagram, with Zuckerberg basically getting no relief from donating to Trump.
And I just think that they've got a lot of risk out there.
But for me, as a small business, and I know a bunch of small businesses, I mean, where are you doing your marketing?
It's still on Facebook.
So until that changes.
Yeah.
And the other risk for Facebook is Timu said that they're pulling back all their US advertising, or it was like 80% of their advertising.
So between that and a recession, you could have a big downturn, but those guys
just print money. And sorry, but I think Meta has a big round of layoffs probably coming,
and they're just going to save money. AI is going to replace probably the majority of those
employees. Yeah. I mean, the thing with Meta is like, what was it down?
70%, 80% in 2022?
Whatever it was.
By the way, I don't know if Ackman was listening,
but Ackman put out a tweet saying something like,
Hertz, large-scale fleet of 500k vehicles,
its expertise of blah, blah, blah,
and make an ideal partner for Uber.
There you go.
He is cornering.
There you go.ing there you go
partnership that's it at the top you were right but now like i guess like you look at it he
the volume comes in stock goes from 780 it's only not only but 780 to 820 so if that's a real thing
you want to watch like uber and see how it performs in the next couple of days.
Want to watch that stock, see how it performs in the next couple of days.
Well, there was my idea.
There's your alpha.
Maybe it was on to something.
There's your alpha.
Back to the meta thing. So the point of me saying that is they were able to have that drawdown and, you know, management was able to pivot, management being Zuckerberg, able to pivot pretty quickly from the metaverse to the next thing.
And, you know, really cut the spend, really got that metaverse thing out and then pivot to AI and back to their core business.
And now you have the stock trading still, despite the the sell-off higher than it was a year ago. So if you could stomach some of these things, it's going to ebb and flow,
it's going to be cyclical, but he's proven now multiple iterations, multiple businesses,
he could kind of adapt to it. And it's a founder-led business. And so I often say,
invest in good businesses with good products, with good
profits and good management. And the founder still being a leader. And listen, the guy's
an MMA guy. I mean, whatever you think of him, he's competitive as hell. And Tim Cook
even came out and said he just wants to beat Zuckerberg. So in my mind, I just think it's
a good opportunity. And again, when Jim Cramer cries, you go in and buy.
I was trying to find the unmute button, I guess, over here.
Yeah, so just another point of clarity, Netflix, if you look at, so I
personally, I look at the top 10 weighted stocks in QQQ more than anything. And that throws Broadcom.
A lot of people forget that Broadcom is weighted the sixth heaviest over there in the NASDAQ.
So I always throw that one in when I think about, you know, a lot of people use
Mac 7, they use FANG, whatever it is. Broadcom, I think, is in that basket. Netflix is in there.
It's like number eight, I believe. And Costco, believe it or not, is actually heavily weighted.
It's in that top 10 of the NASDAQ. So I do want to throw that out there. I know, like,
I was actually surprised more people didn't know that. As many traders as I talked to, and I know this is a smart crowd panel up here, but just in general,
I've talked to a lot of traders that trade QQQ very often, that trade, you know, NQ over on the futures,
and they don't even, you know, a lot of them don't know that.
I think it's important to know what are the highest weighted stocks and the instrument that you're even trading.
So I wanted to throw that out there.
Can I say one thing for that?
And then earlier in the top, Evan said that UNH is impacting the Dow.
It's the largest weight.
So just a point.
I know he knows, but point of clarity, Dow is price weighted.
So that means that it goes by the price of the stock. So the stocks that have larger price tags are going to impact the Dow more despite the fact that Apple has a larger market cap.
So whenever you see the Dow and you're like, why is the Dow down so much?
Look at these big price names in the Dow and see if they're down first.
and see if they're down first.
Actually, if you look around the rest of the Dow today,
without UNH being down 20%,
there was actually some decent relative strength
in some of those names.
Sniper.
Yeah, there you go.
We're eight minutes away from Netflix.
I would love to hear implied move, historical move.
Any stats and data you've got going into this?
I got some interesting stuff.
For Netflix earnings, our implied move is $74.59 or 7.68%.
Previous reactions, we got plus 9.69% reaction, plus 11.09%, minus 1.51%, minus 9.09%.
And since the last report, Netflix is up 11.66%.
The thing that's unusual about this Netflix earnings is the open interest is only at $582,162,
which is pretty low compared towards the last two or three reports that we've seen from Netflix.
Seems like a lot of people are not betting on this.
Also going into this, we're not expecting subscriber numbers from Netflix.
Last quarter was the last one that they were providing us with those numbers.
Could be a great move because obviously we know about the NFL partnership
and we also know about the Jake the Jake Paul Mike Tyson fight happening
right before that so I'm sure a lot of people came there right for that um I guess we will not
see basically um any cancellations or how many people actually canceled since that happened
coming into the offseason of the NFL but yeah that's pretty much all I got for Netflix right now
I got for Netflix right now.
Oh, for Wolfie.
Yeah, so since they're not doing the subscriber number,
global streaming paid net ads is a key operating metric
to pay attention to.
Last quarter, they came in at plus 18.91 million. So call it 19 million.
Higher than the Q3's 5.07 million. So it was like a huge beat there. And then the other one is
advertising. So Logical mentioned Magnite, but last quarter, their ads business, which
probably had to do with a lot of those live events, like really kind of juiced the number a little bit.
Non-membership, with membership in the ad-supported tier expanding by 30% sequentially.
So it accounted for over 55% of signups last time. that advertising revenue number go up and you see that ad supported tier number metric expand again,
it could be like a read through
that people are still adding the ad tier from Netflix.
Yeah, I really wanna hear more about the live sports.
I just, my personal view and I do hold Netflix.
I don't hold as much as Gary over there, but I do hold a little bit. Um, I'm,
I think the continued expansion,
I thought getting into live sports was a good idea for them, but they actually got in and did it well. Like I think that was a big key here.
So when, when they did the NFL games, when they,
when they've gotten into the, uh, what they got into the fights that they did, I thought the production was very well.
And I remember making this comment back in October or whenever it was, whenever that Jake Paul fight happened, or November.
And there was a lot of people all over the timeline, you know, the servers crashing, you know, short Netflix, short Netflix. If you have so much popularity for an event that your server crashes, like that, that's an inherently
bullish problem to have. I made that case back then. And as we've seen, it's continued to do
well. Who knows? Are they in between quarters maybe on some stuff? They did mention last time that they got the FIFA Women's World Cup.
I want to hear if they're going to keep expanding.
And really, what I would love to see is if Dana White and the UFC find a way to work out a deal with Netflix,
I think that would be massive.
And honestly, I don't know what the shots are there
i know i mean prime will probably be making a big bid at it as well but if they can continue to
expand the live sports i just think that that strengthens and acquires more people and and i
think they did it very well whenever they when you watch the the nfl production that they did
i watched that thing for six hours straight.
They had basically in between where commercial breaks and stuff would be.
They had three guys just sitting on there or two guys sitting on there commentating, keeping you up to date.
They were shouting out people around the world that were watching in.
I thought they did it very, very, very well.
Go ahead, Gary.
And, Amp, I just want to bring up to that fact. When something is that big, like the Jake Paul, Mike Tyson fight,
when it gets that much attention, just buy the stock.
CrowdStrike is another perfect example.
They shut down the world with that damn kernel.
That shows you how important that stock alone is.
So I think it's a perfect, perfect way. And if you look at
the stock price back in November, right after that Jake Paul fight, you did really well. I added to
my position. I said, there is no way that Netflix will let football be that. The NFL was all over
them after that Jake Paul fight. So I wound up just doubling down and I think I wound up selling some of the shares
that I'd bought there for short-term stuff.
But it's really good.
Again, that's part of the way I invest
is if something's that important
that it shuts down the world, just go and buy it.
Yeah, I agree.
And honestly, if you bought, when that happened, we haven't even returned to the price where
that area, I mean, that was basically the back test that we got on this low last Monday
was that price point, that same area, right around the $800.
It also hit a kind of a trend line in that area, almost got to the 200-day.
But that was, I mean, I agree with you, Gary.
I mean, anytime a company has that type of problem,
like that's an integral piece, right?
Like as something that I typically want to own.
Go ahead, Wolfie.
Yeah, so another, you mentioned UFC,
but another dark horse for content.
So they've done a couple of the boxing things now so far.
So they kind of have an angle with how to do it.
So another dark horse piece to kind of pay attention to is the boxing or, you know, I don't know what the term that they use called combat sports.
A promotional company that Nick Khan, Dana White and the Saudis are putting together.
Dana White and the Saudis are putting together.
Nick Khan did an interview with Bill Simmons recently and said,
look for an announcement on their promotion in the next four to six weeks.
I kind of feel like given the relationship from the promotional side
with Netflix and the cons specifically,
or not the cons with Nikon specifically with WWE.
I feel like since that's an inroad,
that's another one to pay attention to since they're going to start trying to
do some of these boxing or combat events outside of the UFC.
So they've got, in my opinion,
they've got a couple of levers to pull and then, you know,
if they could just kind of be the flagship for that,
they could really use some of this revenue that they generate,
even if they did just like a pay-per-view ad tier,
to make a real bid for when the NFL comes due and whatnot.
We did just close there, waiting on these numbers to come out now.
If you see the stock moving, let me know if you get the numbers.
But expectations
around $10.5 billion,
EPS around $5.72.
And again, the stock works close tomorrow.
Is the 7% implied move,
I heard something that that was
significantly lower than the previous implied moves of Netflix on their earnings.
That is correct.
Same with the open interest.
The implied move that I'm giving is based on how many options are open on it.
But I mean, I guess for other reasons unrelated to Netflix earnings, there's a lot less contracts open on it right now.
Netflix should be out any second.
There, it's moving up.
Mineral moves up.
Still waiting to hear those numbers.
Yeah, I don't see the numbers.
I see that Amazon put its call on May 1st.
661 versus 571.
Big beat.
Yeah.
10.54.
That's 11.04 billion revenue.
Nice.
Stock is all over the place right now.
It's not got a clear direction.
Tim Haley to step down.
Reed Hastings, non-executive chair.
There's some stuff in there, executives as well.
So we closed the day at 973.
It's currently in the 980s.
It's kind of all over the place here.
You wonder how many people, we mentioned this a little early
in this space, how many people are taking
a long weekend? I mean, you even see we have a light
crowd up here today.
It was $10.54
billion of revenue.
I think that might be guidance or something.
Yeah, that's the guidance, which was there.
So it's 10.54, which is still a beat.
I saw people reporting 11.
Maybe that's like adjusted or something.
No, no, that's just their forecast for next quarter.
Next quarter, it is 11.04.
I mean, even without
releasing the sub numbers, you can tell.
They're holding on to their subs
pretty freaking well.
And there was something about their management too
in here, Tim Haley.
$7.03
is what they see for Q2
on EPS. So far
premium burn event.
Reiterating the revenue forecast.
That makes sense though.
Do we not think that they
are, I mean, Nogical kind of
mentioned, like what if we do get a digital tariff at some point?
That's something I hadn't even considered.
I mean, we, we talked about,
we talked about how Europe kind of excludes digital products from,
from, you know, being taxed a certain way.
And that when we put out the numbers we didn't include those
you had that was that was what kind of led to the special situations
face face off with that guy that one night
the war i missed it i was i went to bed it was uh it was diligent right yeah diligent jay
It was Diligent, right?
Yeah, Diligent and Jay.
Who won the war?
You know...
Was that just one battle within the war?
I don't think anybody won.
There's no winners.
I don't think anybody won.
Yeah, there's no winner.
There was a clear, better side of it,
but there was no winner.
There was a very educated point and then a
counterpoint that just kept going on and on and on
we successfully rolled out the Netflix ad suite our in-house first-party ad tech program, on April
the 1st.
Wow.
Good tweet.
Good comment. Google hit with
second interest, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Honestly, I don't think much
is going to come out of these Netflix earnings. We've got Ryan
coming up, hanging out.
The earnings call should be starting at 4.45 p.m. Eastern, that one for Mr. Netflix.
Which, again, obviously, if you guys go to earnings hub, you'll be able to find everything.
Chat with the hub, earnings hub.
Sniper's a big fan of the hub.
Sniper's always on the hub. Yeah, I big fan of the hub sniper is always on the hub yeah i'm addicted to the hub i'm getting to you what's up brian what's up how are you guys
What's up, Brian?
What's up? How are you guys?
We're good.
It's kind of a slower day.
We're going to check out the Netflix earnings right now.
Had a decent conversation last hour or so.
Seems like a lot of people have already hit the road for their holiday weekend.
Yeah, seems like it.
I did get the confirmation.
I am going to the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting.
Let's go.
I'm going to be in silence in the corner.
Omaha!
Rumor has it I am actually in the top left corner.
So you can find me in that section.
I'm sure I'll see you there.
Are you flying straight from New York to Omaha?
Or how's your flight?
It is actually Los Angeles to Ottawa, then down to Omaha.
Oh, okay.
Are you not going to New York?
No, man, I am.
Okay.
But then we're going some other directions there you go say la to ottawa yeah that's what it is that's your real flight path yes la to
ottawa and then we're going to omaha that's a total of canada i got yes i got tariff 25
on the way there. There you go.
Is Woof going as well, or just you?
Woof.
Just me.
As of right now.
Maybe not.
Maybe not.
We'll see.
I was like, all right.
We're crashing.
Ticket confirmed.
Going to the annual show.
There's not many other chances you're going to get left.
So I was like, all right.
Yeah. I'm glad you're going. I left. So I was like, all right. No. Yeah. I'm glad.
I'll see you there for sure.
All right.
Netflix stock moved a little higher here at 0.5%.
But yeah, that's really all we have in the earnings.
The stock moved pretty aggressively into this.
And I don't have too much data.
I know Brendan's down there.
Always has some different data points that he's looking at.
We're just going through this
Netflix
guide that they put out.
All right. Wolfie.
What's up?
I know you're a big fan of these um what's your uh you're throwing out these top
five recession foods things what's your top five easter uh traditions in a bear market
easter traditions in a bear market uh what a top wow i would say you mean can i netflix is
moving higher now up one and a half. Is it one of them watching Netflix?
Yes, Netflix is always the top five in any recessionary bear market environment.
So start there.
Let me think.
Chocolate bunnies.
Is that a thing still?
All right. Chocolate bunniesnies whatever you want to be all
right chocolate i don't know it's a bear market yeah you must be doing well in this bear market
so plastic eggs um i'm not i'm not is that an easter egg hunt are you i mean yeah i mean
it doesn't have to be made a comment earlier that did make me laugh
that he was really excited to hide the eggs for his kids
as hard as possible.
I'm hiding.
I'm talking.
I'm hiding.
I'm going to number them 1 to 25,
but I'm going to leave out two numbers
so they just never find them.
They're only going to be 23 total anyway.
And I'm just going to sit there and watch in a lawn chair.
In that case, you might as well just put 11 out there and say there's 13.
Okay.
So, yeah, for me, for the record, I've never celebrated Easter since I'm not Christian.
But let's try it.
Let's say, you know, chocolate bunnies.
I feel like that's a thing.
Netflix is a thing.
The Easter eggs out of plastic this year.
Cause we had like eggs were very inflated for a while.
Although I don't know which would be cheaper now.
Plastic or,
it'd still be plastic because you still got to paint them.
Are you worried about the plastic in your balls?
I'm not,
I'm not worried about,
I'm not worried about that at all.
I'm scared of microplastics.
I'm not worried about it at all.
Ryan,
are you doing anything to flush your,
your body of the micro toxins,
the microplastics?
Kombucha.
He threw away his crocs.
Kombucha is disgusting, honestly.
We have a kombucha place down here in Sarasota.
And I don't like the regular kombucha.
But they have different flavored.
The one I have is a blueberry lemon one.
And it's actually good.
I would reckon you would actually,
how much is it?
it's $12,
but it's,
it saves you about,
you can,
you can drink it over four to five days.
This guy is getting a little tiny thing and it's like 50 bucks.
It's like,
okay,
I'll give you,
this is something that you savor,
but it,
it does well.
I'll give you my number one.
My number one is
discounted candy the next day.
Get all your
peeps in the next day.
I don't like peeps.
I'm reusing
Halloween candy.
All the Halloween candy.
That's crazy.
You might as well reuse Christmas candy, dude.
Right?
He has risen.
Isn't that what he's doing?
Yeah.
Also, this year, we're going to boil the eggs, paint them,
and then we're going to eat them because we don't want to waste any eggs
during a bear market.
Just make sure it's watercolors.
Nah, build character.
Yeah, that lead paint.
Well, I'm fairly certain they're not very hard things.
I think they're like membranes and stuff in and out.
So I would still recommend using the safe-to-eat stuff. very hard things. I think they're like membranes and stuff in and out.
Would still recommend using the
safe to eat stuff.
I thought we were supposed to have less regulation
this year. What are you guys trying to regulate me?
That's true. RFK would be proud of you
actually. Go use all the food dyes.
Where's Gabba? I'm going to use red
number three. Should I be worried about the microplastics
uh no i think i think that's there there's always the thing that everyone's worried about
and if you pay attention people sort of forget about the last things that they were worried
about like do you remember when everyone was worried about the coatings on cans
but then they sort of forgot to get worried about the coatings on soda cans or seltzer cans there
was like a everyone was worried about the cans but also that was when la croix got really big
i don't know five years ago seven so whatever there's all these things people like everyone
worries about one thing and then the next and so on and most most of the time it's not real. The plastic thing is not real.
I don't just say that because companies I invest in produce natural gas and natural gas liquids.
I was actually, I was going to post this thing. We got artificial turf for our backyard and,
you know, we're in the middle of a bear market. Oil had just fallen a lot, so I didn't really
want to like rub it in, but it's pretty market. Oil had just fallen a lot, so I didn't really want to, like, rub it in.
But it's pretty exciting.
But there's all these news articles about how it's terrible.
And, like, there's fumes and microplastics.
And I don't know.
Like, there's no evidence that anyone ever has been, other than from getting, like, rug burn or something from turf.
But, like, no one's ever gotten harmed by that stuff.
My favorite Easter thing, I want to jump in on your guys thing, is I posted this from my barbecue time account.
In Texas, there's this amazing chain called H-E-B, which is still privately held.
And they have steaks for $4.50 a pound, New York strip steaks.
They're amazing.
And that is, I'm Jewish, so it's not so relevant for me.
But the steaks are amazing.
And I buy a ton of
them gosh we actually have heb down here in mexico and it's super popular wait really it's in mexico
now there's there's probably as many hebs i know there's more states in mexico with heb than there
are in the u.s i are you sure i didn didn't know that. I thought it was just in Texas
and then maybe in Florida or something.
I've never seen it in Florida at all.
I think they opened one in the Panhandle
right near the border.
Yeah, Gulfstream area.
I say we tariff hit 25% at least.
No, that's where I get some American foods.
Less it's made in the U.S.
So what happens when these tariffs lead to the next bout of crazy inflation?
It feels like no one really wants to talk about that too much,
but it almost feels like a COVID-type policy,
which could have bad,
negative, short-term consequences like we saw with the market down, oil down, commodities
down, whatever.
And then it seems like people are starting to price in just starting potential very loose
monetary policy and then direct effects.
I mean, joking aside, like maybe we'll never see 450. I mean, it's still crazy. They're charging 450 a pound for stakes. Like it's obviously like a doorbuster sale, but, um, I don't know. proposed catalyst for the showdown between Powell and Trump because you're going to have this bout of, quote unquote, temporary inflation.
And the Fed's not going to, based on what they've said and how they've acted, they're probably not going to move the way that he wants them to move.
And then that's when things, in my opinion messy i think you're right it's like a similar thing to covid
where you get this shock on the front end and then you know over time it should be the uh once
resolved and and things and supply chains kind of get some supply chains kind of get reshorted
should be like a double way for inflation to come down.
But until that happens, you're 100% should have like this inflationary shock and sticky inflation or a creep, whatever word you want to use there.
But the difference is we're not going to inject four to six trillion dollars into the money supply like we did in COVID.
I think it'll be transitory in my opinion. But I mean, supply i think is a big big part parts of this yeah but that's going
to be that's going to be the battle in my opinion the battle is uh inflation goes up and the fed
says hey inflation's up we can't you know we can't uh we can't print it's going to only add to it
and then the the argument from the trump camp is you have to do something.
You have to cut the rates so that we can bring – it's going to be like a backwards conversation, but I think that's where the battle is going to be.
Yeah.
I mean I can see that.
I think we definitely will have some – we'll definitely have inflation from the tariffs.
But again, how much is it?
Is it enough? And it gets to the point where it gets to 4%. I don't think so. I think that's too
high because it's already on a downward trend. And with tariffs, it depends, I think, really
where they land, right? I mean, if they stick here at where they are now, then we'll definitely see heavy inflation.
But if they actually get to some deals, specifically with the EU, Japan,
every Asian country before China, and then do China, hopefully,
something that's not insane, then I don't think it'll be that big of an issue.
I mean, nobody's really talking about it at all.
But, yeah, we'll see.
Monty, have you had your hand up?
Yeah, looks like I'm the only one that talks with the
reads for my turn to talk with the hands up. But setting that
aside for a second, how is this going to be transitory? We are
going to it's going to be years before we have capacity here.
And whatever capacity we have here is going to create worldwide inefficiencies
because instead of producing at the lowest cost place,
we are producing where it is, you know, politically or, you know,
culturally or whatever else expedient so so cost of production is going to go up one way
or the other when when that reshoring is is is in production which is going to be multiple years
you know or any remainder of of of any of this of this tariff.
And even today, Trump has said that
we're not going to go back to zero.
There's going to be no zero tariff.
Even if we get a deal,
we're going to have remainder tariffs,
whether that's 10 or 20% or whatever that number is.
That is still something that doesn't exist today,
which is still inflationary.
There is no getting away from the fact
that we have inflation coming
unless we completely just undo everything that we've talked about
or we've put in place the last month.
Without that, we're going to have inflation,
and it's not going to be transitory.
Yeah, but if the argument is that it's going to be persistent inflation because we're trying to onshore, that's a different argument than I would say a strict 10% tariff along the way.
I think if it was strictly 10% along the way, that would be a lot more transitory than if we completely try to onshore all production.
But that's not going to happen.
I mean, they understand that we can't onshore
all production for many different reasons. We don't have the labor supply or the capacity to
do that. I mean, in my opinion, I disagree with the notion that they think they're going to onshore
completely. I think they're just going to try to change their supply chains more to different
countries. I think the main goal is to get out of China as much as possible.
Again, that'll take time.
But at the same time, I don't think that it'll be persistent inflation
because there's more dynamics than just tariffs in the economy,
including deregulation, which I think a lot of people have completely forgot.
including deregulation, which I think a lot of people have completely forgot.
20% tariff that stays is not permanently inflationary.
How is that?
It doesn't matter how you slice it.
It's going to get passed on.
If it doesn't get passed on, then we have a shrinking economy.
We were just going to forego sales.
So either... then we have a shrinking economy we were just going to forgo sales so either we have a recession
or worse or we have you know a healthy economy with great consumption that people accept a 20
pass through if you can't there is no middle ground is no middle ground in the sense that part of it is going to happen.
But as long as you put any type of tariff and it stays, the prices have to account for that tariff,
and that tariff is going to get passed on
which is exactly what inflation is correct but long-term inflation is persistent increases in
the price level over time and i'm just saying that if we see uh if they finally come to an
agreement whether it's 10 15 or whatever they come to an agreement with on tariffs the reason
why i say it's more transitory because i think it'll be a more one or whatever they come to an agreement with on tariffs. The reason why I say it's more
transitory because I think it'll be a more one or two time change in the price level. It's not
going to be consistent increases to the price level. And it's completely disregarding other
inflationary pressures too. I mean, oil, yes, has risen recently, but if oil stays in the $58 to $64 range, then that pushes inflation down.
And it's a big inflation trend.
I mean, persistent long-term inflation would mean that inflation is continuing to rise at 4% to 5% to 6% every single year.
I don't think that happens from a 10%
tariffs at all.
Well, you're dislocating this, there's almost certain to be a
level of dislocation of optimal production. Add on top of that.
So before I go there, oil is falling because of the expectation
of decreased economic activity.
If you take that out of the equation and say economic activity is going to be normalized
again, oil is going to start going up.
Just the fact that you have greater demand in the economy automatically means that the energy demand equation jumps.
You can't have higher economic activity without higher demand for oil.
It just does not happen that way.
I agree with you on that.
I agree with you on that i agree with you so where is where is the where is the
adjustment going to come for an additional 20 increase in price across the board for everything
that's important i just don't believe that 20 inflation gets passed on to the consumer based off these tariffs at all. I don't think
that happens. So who's going to eat the loss? I mean, retailers have already said they'll eat
parts of it. But again, I don't think tariffs are going to stay that high. If you think people in the administration believe that inflation will not persist from sitting at 20%, 30% tariffs across the board?
Then, I mean, if they do believe that, then there's a lot more problems there.
But, I mean, I've spoken to people within the administration that believe that whether they negotiate for more free trade or they just stick
at 10%, inflation will not hit the economy nearly as bad as everyone says. And I mean, I agree with
them on that point because we completely neglect other positive situations. We only talk about
tariffs now. We completely neglect everything that relates to tax cuts. We completely neglect everything that relates to deregulation.
And yes, I think inflation may come, but I don't think it's anything more than transitory, in my opinion.
Persistent long-term inflation would mean that we have 3%, 4%, 5%, 6% inflation continuing over the next 3%, 4% years.
If you think we have permanent inflation,
I don't see that situation at all.
Well, since you seem to have context inside the administration,
I cannot say with any certainty.
I only go by what's written in the press
and what Trump talks about himself,
which he again did you know
a couple of hours ago that he said you know and don't even agree themselves
that's the hard thing i agree with that stock talk that's the hard thing
so what can i it's it's hard to believe anything coming out of them but again i don't think i
don't think terrorists stick at this high rate that there
are now. I mean, everything that they've done is they put the maximalist approach and they come
down to a more equal playing field, whatever you determine equal. But that's not how it's been.
That's not how it's been. That was the playbook from the previous administration that Trump had.
This time, that's not how it's been.
This time, you've had countries like we used Vietnam the other day as an example, Sok Tak and I, which said, we'll come to the table and we'll use the formula that you used and we'll zero it out.
you used and we'll zero it out and then they were met with that's not enough so like i don't again
And then they were met with, that's not enough.
so if you if you're talking to someone that's telling you something that we're not privy to i
can't speak to that but based on how things have gone it hasn't been a boil approach first and then
ease off it's been boiled approach hard line go harder so far correct no. No, no, I agree. I think, I mean, I've talked about it the last week.
I haven't been on here much this week, but last week I talked about it a lot. I mean, I think
the way they've rolled out has been very bad. But I do think we will start seeing deals within the
next week to two weeks, because at the end of the day, like we've talked about a hundred times,
as much as this doesn't sound like it, this is how policy should work, and I agree, it's not how
policy should work. But the main thing that Trump cares about is his ego, his approval rating,
everything else. His approval rating on the economy today hit the worst ever, and that's
why you heard more softer rhetoric. I did not hear what he said at the three o'clock hour, but at noon, the rhetoric was a lot softer on deals with the EU.
We will be coming to deals with the EU here soon. China will have a deal here soon.
I mean, I personally believe that they will, that the Trump administration will blink to an extent.
the Trump administration will blink to an extent. They're going to spin it as a win for them at the
end of the day, but they're going to blink and come to some deals that ultimately benefit the
economy in some way or don't hurt the economy as much as we say. And I personally argue against
inflation. I mean, maybe we'll see it, but I just think the rates that actually stick are a lot lower than everyone expects.
So I'm in Monetus camp.
I don't think that it's going to be – I think it'll be like a spike in inflation, and then from there it might come down a little bit, but it'll be persistently higher. higher, there's a structural change that's happening both domestically and internationally
with onshoring production, onshoring labor, and being protectionist and being populist.
Generally speaking, with those types of movements and those types of things, they are stickier
than cyclical inflation, which is business-driven, which is the type of inflation that we've seen. We've had shocks to the business side of it with COVID. And with structural changes
like that, where people are going to probably start demanding, especially like middle classes
and lower are going to start demanding buffers in their own income and buffers in their own
livelihoods. Those types of things, just from wages alone,
are stickier types of inflation. And I think those things are happening with some of these
tariffs. So even if you move the number from 20 to 10, let's say, sure, the baseline on the top
print is going to be 10. It's going to stick at at 10 but everything under it like you've got to pay people more than you were paying because labor costs more then you have to charge more because
labor costs more and businesses will tell you one thing and they'll always do the other thing they'll
always do the the thing that's best for their bottom line i don't i don't think these businesses
that already have like marginal uh marginal, especially on the retail side,
are going to just be like, yeah, sure, we'll eat the loss. That's a very
optimistic view of it. And I just, I don't see it personally. That's just me.
Here, sorry, I kicked off the inflation thing. My bad. I was just saying, I think Monitve said it well. The incremental onshoring, add higher incremental capital necessary to deploy, and then higher incremental labor cost is inflationary.
And then, like Monitve said, the reason oil fell so much recently is that there was this economic shock.
oil fell so much recently is that there was this economic shock.
People were worried there was going to be a temporary demand shock or potentially not
temporary from ultra high tariffs and other sort of economically destructive policies.
As that unwinds, the marginal cost of production for oil, I posted charts on this many times
and you just look at the company's
financials and so on. The marginal cost for oil, the marginal cost of various producers,
including Saudi Aramco, is in the 70s and 80s dollar per barrel and rising over time as there's
a depletion of old fields. You just don't get the full cycle return developing oil fields below that price.
And you're seeing that with the rig count falling and various other factors.
So I think trying to straight line the recent temporary price for oil after a sharp decline,
after announcement of extreme tariffs is probably not the right way to think about the likely future
price in a more stable environment. And Josh, if as part of the deal, we're going to start,
as part of the deal we're going to start let's say we have a lot of leverage and we force europe
to buy oil from us we're just going to make it more inefficient worldwide by you know trying
doing a lot more transport than where it's optimal and and just that pushes up costs too across the
board right for them and for us and if we're going to sell it cheaper then then we're going to pass on
those losses to the companies which makes no sense or don't think it's even practical yeah i mean it's
that stuff's fungible so yeah it's impractical but the reality is the the transport cost for oil and
even for lng these days is actually not that high except for stuff that's supposed to go through the
red sea and is blocked by the Houthis.
So yeah, honestly, like that stuff, it's irrational.
It frankly is irrelevant.
It's a really dumb thing to try.
I was generally pretty supportive of Trump, but this trade policy is asinine.
And it doesn't like getting people to agree to buy your true commodity product that there's a slight undersupply of globally and a projected
future sort of balanced market to potentially slight oversupply or slight undersupply is the
worst thing to try to negotiate. Who cares? Totally. I mean, I'm in the industry. I guess
in theory, I would benefit from it if it was something that mattered, but that's not a thing to negotiate for. If he wanted to benefit U.S. oil and gas, he would secure some other thing. I haven't even
really thought about what he would do, maybe just lower tariffs overall, something positive for
broader trade, positive for broader economic growth. But securing purchases of a true commodity,
like crude oil or liquefied natural gas does not help at all.
And like you said, maybe it's incrementally inefficient, but frankly, that transport cost
is actually not material.
There's a lot. I agree with most of what we've said i think well i my
main point of arguing is that i i don't think that terrorists stick nor as high as as what people
really believe that they're going to stick in my opinion i think one of the ultimate goals is
more free trade across the board i know they they had the hard stance on Vietnam and we went over that.
But in my opinion, and the small stuff I have heard, again, like Stock Talk said,
everyone in the administration disagrees with each other. But in some of the stuff that I've heard,
the main focus at the end of the day is more free trade across the way. Again, could be
completely wrong. And at the end of the day, Trump free trade across the way. Again, could be completely wrong.
And at the end of the day, Trump does what he truly believes in himself,
which is not a great thing at all.
But I do believe that they want more free trade at the end of the day.
And I argue that there's not going to be as much inflation as expected because I just don't think tariffs stick where they are now. I think they get
a little bit better. But again, it's all speculative. I know nothing. I don't think
anyone in here really knows anything because Trump could sweet something in two minutes and
it changes everything. So, but yeah, thanks guys. Stock talk. We were, before this you missed this some good conversation um but but i want to get
your thoughts on this one nice of you to show up hour and 15 minutes late still still better than
than not showing up at all so uh good work there from the from the team um yeah any thought on
these netflix earnings he was out he was out late celebrating that Mavs victory over the Kings last night.
He was super excited.
At the plate with Leo, he hurt his speech.
But I'm still outside, so give me like five minutes.
I'm about to get back to my apartment building.
Before I let you get inside
did you go to the Mav game last night?
we were talking
it was in Sacramento
in Sacramento
gotcha, okay, I don't know
Wolfie, big basketball guy
you knew that right away
yeah, I played both
how tall are you?
how tall am I? I'm not tall I'm 5'10", are you? How tall am I?
I'm not tall.
I'm 5'10", so I'm not tall either.
I'm not tall when you're talking basketball.
Yeah.
But, um...
Do we still have Sniper?
No worries there.
Yes, sir.
Did you have any... Did you have look at these netflix numbers at all or anything else that's catching your eye to be honest uh i decided i'm just gonna wait for
earning subs ai transcript on this one um i'm not really too worried about netflix right now
it definitely doesn't seem like it's uh a mover. And just like I said before going into the report on it, there's very low open interest on this one.
And I imagine that there's a lot of people that probably would be in this in one way or another that aren't in it because of the tariff situation and because of just the current market that we're in.
But, yeah, Netflix broke $1,000.
That's pretty cool.
I don't really have many comments on it just yet, but definitely like seeing it above $1,000, that's pretty cool. I don't really have many comments on it just yet,
but definitely like seeing it above $1,000.
You didn't buy any NFLU?
Did you get you some 2X leverage from Rex?
I did not.
I did not, but I bet NFLU is looking pretty nice right now.
So I haven't listened to the conference call or anything like that, obviously,
but I just saw some of
the headlines come across.
They said that
they re-upped for an NFL
Christmas Day game.
They said that their company is building out
live offerings.
WWE Raw, it's been a global top 10 hit
every week. And then they added
Taylor vs. Serrano 3
women's boxing to stream July 11th.
Also Trump is in the Oval Office taking some questions and signing executive orders.
Oh, interesting.
Do we know what the executive orders are?
Don't worry.
If there's anything important,
it'll be in all caps across all the headline accounts.
I got you.
Yeah, they're talking about tuna right now.
They're taking our fish, is what this guy's telling you.
They're taking our fish. what this guy's telling you. They're taking our fish.
What's up, Omar?
Hey.
How are you doing today, sir?
Doing good.
Just looking at some of these Netflix numbers.
Looks like they beat expectations by a little bit.
Good to see.
The stock's been running, and it had a little bit of juice up in after hours.
I think the implied move was 7% or something.
We're up 4% now, so the options players still didn't win,
but nice for the shareholders.
Back over 1,000.
Yeah, definitely.
You're not going to tariff Squid Games, right?
So it is something that is a little bit defensive.
I think they're doing great.
They're expanding more into live content, into games.
And they've got just a great UI.
They're ubiquitous.
As people start to develop sort of, you know, streaming service fatigue,
I think they've got one of the ones
that's easiest to use so good growth numbers out of the most recent quarter
i think the free tier on the ads also you know has been a big
growth driver for them and is going to continue to be
for them and is going to continue to be.
So, Omar, I don't know if you saw this in the numbers,
but $150 million positive swing on FX alone, right?
The comparable quarter last year, they lost $130 million to FX,
Parable quarter last year, they lost $130 million to FX.
And this year, this quarter, they gained $28 million from FX.
So that's a good thing.
We're going to start to see more of that across the board in tech,
that FX actually swings the other way and gives them a little boost.
Yeah, that's a great point.
As the dollar has been weakening,
they have huge overseas markets.
That's going to make the foreign currency stronger.
So there are some companies
that are definitely going to be FX losers.
Others, like Netflix,
if they have overseas markets
and their costs aren't changing that much,
they could be an fx winner can you guys hear me now yeah we got you okay perfect yeah sorry about that i don't know
if you heard me when i was outside but yeah leo cracked his tooth on a rock today so i had to take
him to the vet but um he's okay. I just saw a little bit of blood
in his mouth and freaked out because I'm like a baby when it comes to him. Anyway, he's fine,
but yeah, today, okay, what do you want? My thoughts on Netflix earnings. Also added some
stuff today, so I guess I'll touch on some of that i'll just start with what i what i added today um i tweeted yesterday evening or afternoon a list of four specific industries
maybe five i don't know i'll pin the tweet at the top uh with mid cap stocks that have shown
tremendous relative strength in this market. My indication of relative
strength being they're not getting sold on red days. They're running a lot on green days,
and they're sitting above all of their short-term moving averages and long-term moving averages on
the daily chart. All the names I listed, again, the tweets pinned at the top, are above their
daily 9 and 21 EMAs. For momentum traders, that's a sign of
strength in the short term. And if you go through those baskets, I mean, I've been talking about a
lot of those baskets year to date, but the ones I'm most focused on right now are the U.S. border
plays, so U.S. border security stocks, rare metals, and aerospace and defense.
I think those three are going to be your leading categories for the rest of the year.
Usually I spend the first quarter.
If you go back and look at my performance charts that I share on Twitter for my trading,
usually the first quarter I bounce around a lot. I switch a lot of positions, filter stocks in and out.
And what I'm doing in the process of that few months is attempting to identify relative
strength candidates in the market who can act as market leaders and who can continue
to see upside, even when the market might be chopping around or inflecting downward.
And the first area we noticed that, or at least the first area I noticed that this year,
was in mid-cap aerospace and defense. I started the year with a big Embraer Jets exposure. I
still have that exposure. You know, that stock's up 15 or 16 percent year to date. It was up a lot
more at the peak, but came down a little bit with the market. Kratos is my second biggest
position in that basket. I think it's the best positioned mid cap defense company in the nation.
They're practically involved with every single next gen industry, from missile defense to
autonomous drones to autonomous aircraft, to specific targeted missile defense.
Everything that's basically being talked about, Kratos has some sort of involvement in through one of its subsidiaries or another.
And I'm also a huge fan of Florida Turbine Technologies, which they acquired a few years ago,
and I think is going to end up being a 4 or 5x acquisition for them, probably more.
So I'm really, really bullish on that whole industry.
I have few exposures there.
Another one has obviously been U.S. border security
where a lot of budget priorities have been shuffled
in this administration.
There's frankly been a lot of policy volatility as well.
So it's difficult to predict
what the course of government spending might be
for a given sector.
But I think it's pretty certain when it comes to U.S. border security that money is going there.
There was a contract that was renewed between CoreCivic, that's ticker CXW, and Target Hospitality, ticker TH.
Chart on Target Hospitality is not as attractive. Chart on CoreCivic is very attractive.
I initiated a position in that earlier this year. It's gone pretty well for us.
And if you look at how that charge acted during the sell-off, no one's touching that thing.
Not only are they a U.S. border security services company, they provide detention services,
they have little to no tariff impact as a services company.
And they are a budget priority in the new administration.
So I think there's a
reason you're seeing those stocks hold up so well. I made another ad in that U.S. border security
space. It's a stock I've owned before and traded before, Geo Group, which a lot of people are
familiar with. I did make an ad on that. Moving averages are stacked. It's sitting kind of tight.
I saw that 1.5% move today. Obviously, that was with the market,
but I figure it could be ready for a move. And if not, you have three moving averages stacked
right below it that you can risk off of for a nice, clean support. So it's the type of market
where I'm not going to take anything where I don't have a support area to risk off of. And if I do,
then I throw a dart. And if it works, it works great. And if it doesn't, then, you know, I cut it for a small loss and move on. This is not the type of market where
I'm going to have a long leash with positions and say, oh, buy something and just, you know,
let it sit. So yeah, I did up my US border security exposure a little bit with that position
today as well. I also added NAK. Now this is a sort of a shit co, but you know,
they do have an asset and the chart is just really, really compelling, which is why I added
it to it's breaking out of a multi-year base, you know, plenty of upside range. So I took a
little ad on that today. PPTA is my favorite play in the rare mineral space. I've owned it in the past and have traded
it a few times. I missed the latest run on PPTA and I don't want to chase it up here in the 13s
or 14s, but perpetual resources is my favorite play in that space. And I think, you know,
all things being equal, that stock probably goes a lot higher as people start to discover
the antimony potential there. I think the asset's underpriced still, even after the move.
But there are a bunch of others in that space as well.
Obviously, MP Materials is one that people like to talk about.
I'm not as big of a fan of them because they don't actually have
the type of rare earth exposure that we're most sensitive to.
I think these sort of antimony exposed plays are better assets,
more strategic assets, in my opinion.
But I digress. That's a longer conversation that, you know, maybe we can have on a different space.
But, yeah, I think having exposure to that area is important, too.
So I did make another ad there with NAK today.
And then what else did I do?
One more thing.
Oh, I opened some LEU again.
Decentris Energy, which is a stock I've loved for a long time.
This is like my favorite nuclear play, you know, like five, six, seven years ago.
And I used to own it in big size. It was one of my biggest positions back in 2016, 2017, 2018.
And then it went on that parabolic run last year with
all the nuclear plays. And so I sold it because, I mean, it was a large position and I was up
over 150% on shares. And so I was like, you know, it's time to cash the check. I'd held it for
multiple years. So I sold out of that last year, not at the peak. I wish I did, but it ended up
going up a little bit more after.
And then now it's come down from the highs pretty significantly.
And I think the policy environment for nuclear is starting to inflect positively again.
I don't think you're going to see the same race to speculation that you saw last year with the nuclear theme,
where all the pre-revenue companies
went to the moon. I think you're going to see a more disciplined approach from investors this time
around on the nuclear stocks. And in my view, there's very few that have real businesses under
the surface that are worth buying, in my opinion. I think if you want to look at the power producers
like Talent Energy, Constellation Energy, Those are good exposures. I think that
those are the obvious ones that people look at. I think if you want to look a little more under
the radar, you look at names like Centris Energy, Marion Technologies, which is a fantastic,
durable business, not explosive growth, but they have a really, really specific radiation testing
niche in which they're a world leader.
And as the nuclear industry grows globally, they probably become a winter agnostic beneficiary of that.
So I think there are smarter plays you can look at that are revenue producing, that do have real businesses under the surface.
And you don't necessarily have to speculate on these multi-billion dollar pre-revenue assets.
So, yeah, I am starting to warm up to that again and probably reposition there.
My other favorite in that space is obviously BWXT, which is an indispensable contractor for the U.S. military, for Virginia class subs and other nuclear subs.
for Virginia class subs and other nuclear subs.
And when you look at SMR technology over the last few years,
there's been a tremendous amount of speculation around it because of the potential.
And I think that speculation is warranted.
The issue is that most of these companies we talk about,
Oclo being probably the most famous example because people love to trade that stock.
You look at Oclo, for example, they don't have production-ready, licensed, commercializable
products yet in that space.
The only mid-cap company that's publicly listed, and this is excluding the larger legacy defense
providers who do have SMR programs as well, the only mid-cap company that's publicly listed
that has workable products in the SMR space
is BWXT Technologies.
So, you know, that would be another one of my favorites here as well.
You know, I think if you really want nuclear exposure,
I think you can pick one of the power producers,
pick CEG, Talon, Vistra,
whichever one of the three you like the best.
You pair that with some Centris Energy.
You pair that with some Mirion.
You pair that with some BWXT. I think something like that makes a nice nuclear basket. I don't
own all those names currently, but in an ideal world, if I wanted to make a nuclear basket,
that's probably what it would look like. A tight basket, four names, power producer,
you get some peripheral exposure and defense exposure with BWXT. Centris Energy gives you that HALU exposure domestically.
And then Marion gives you services exposure.
So it gives you a nice, complete basket.
And in my view, all of those have really nice supports to risk off of as well.
So yeah, I did a couple things today.
Started throwing some cash at the table.
I mean, I'm sitting on a lot of cash.
And at some point, some of these charts are going to look decent and i'm going to take a stab at them
you know um i'm not taking tremendous amounts of risk here you know i'm not going to sit on any of
these stocks i've mentioned if they break down below their short-term moving averages this is
really just an attempt for me to start to incrementally deploy some capital. If we do get a market turnaround, great. But ideally, I want to find spots that can perform without the market.
And I think I've done a good job of doing that this year, especially with aerospace and defense.
I want to open up some of these other categories that might be able to do that,
even if the markets do continue to be really bumpy for the rest of the year.
So that's kind of my thoughts on all that.
On Netflix earnings, I don't think there's anything really remarkable.
I mean, APAC revenue is growing well.
The FX conversation was already brought up.
I think Netflix and pretty much any other international provider of, you know, that
type of consumer-facing subscription software is going to
benefit from that, from the FX volatility, probably in this quarter. But look, all things
being equal, I think this earning season is really going to be a matter of who does it get worse for
and who says, hey, we're keeping our guidance. Because the companies in this environment that
are like, hey, we're not changing anything about our forecast and our guidance due to the tariffs, that's going to be viewed as an incremental
positive by the markets. And I think most of those stocks will get bid up. I think, you know,
what a lot of people I think are misinterpreting is this idea that stocks that are down a lot are
going to report bad earnings and not go down more. I disagree with that notion. I think you're still going to see stocks
that might be down 20, 30 percent headed into the print down another 20 percent on a bad report.
And the reason for that is because people misappropriate the idea of something being
priced in. You know, when people see a 30 percent decline in a stock as a consequence of the broader market going down due to macro pressures,
they attribute that decline to a potential decline in earnings. In my view, those two things are not attributable to each other because the market decline that we've seen the last few
months has had nothing to do with these individual businesses. It's been a matter of multiple
compression as a result of changing risk in the macroeconomic environment. That's
what the sell-off has been about. Babies have been thrown out with the bathwater for that reason,
because multiples have compressed broadly. When you go into an earning season where multiples
have compressed broadly due to the macro, and then you give people a micro reason to sell the stock,
they're going to sell the stock. You're not going to withhold
sellers because you're like, oh, well, my stock's already down 20%. Here's a bad report. So I think
that's sort of a misappropriated expectation that people are having about this earnings season. I
don't think that a lot of those stocks are going to be able to escape more downside pressure.
But I do think there'll be a basket of names that give the all clear signal like Netflix did today that do well post earnings,
where they say, hey, we're not going to be impacted by tariffs.
We're reiterating our guidance.
I think if you hear that, most instances where you hear that phrasing, I think you'll see the stocks go up.
And I also think you're going to see another basket
of names emerge this earnings season, which are going to be tariff immune names. And I think
you'll see some analyst commentary attempting to identify them. And one of the names I talked
about earlier, Kratos, you had commentary today from Truist and RBC saying they're tariff immune.
You had analyst commentary two weeks ago from Bayard saying they're tariff immune.
So some stocks will start getting pointed out as being tariff immune.
And in the cases where they're not pointed out by the analyst community,
the CEOs themselves will point it out on these upcoming earnings calls.
So I think a big theme to pay attention to these next couple of weeks is the companies that
announce tariff immunity, because there's a good shot, especially if those charts look
constructive, that those end up being your next market leaders in the coming months.
And those end up being the stocks that get bid because people are going to be looking for shelter from this.
Because even in a case of resolution or softening net net, we're probably going to be in an environment where there are some level of tariffs on place on a lot of countries, right? And in that operating environment,
if you're an investor who likes to minimize risk
while participating to the long side of the market,
you want tariff immune exposures.
That's, in fact, that's precisely what you'd be looking for
in a market environment like that.
So I think you'll see a gravitation to that
this earnings season.
I think the idea of CEOs self-identifying as tariff immune is going to accelerate that move.
You've started to see blips of it this year, right?
But to be fair, you only notice that if you're a diligent price action observer.
Like when I posted those stocks yesterday, it's like a list of 13 stocks.
You go through those names, you probably haven't seen any of those tickers on Twitter.
Maybe USAR because it went on a crazy run lately.
But like outside of one or two names, you probably haven't seen a single one.
In fact, if you go search any of those names that I put up at the top, again, outside of one or two of them, you won't even find any tweets on them.
on them. Okay. And that the diligent price action observation it takes to identify those areas of
strength is not being conducted by most people. When it becomes obvious to the crowd is when
these companies raise their hand during the earnings call and say, hey, we have no impact
from tariffs. So I think that's what you pay attention to this earning season, a tariff
immunity. I think you also pay attention to companies that may or may not be tariff immune, but
nonetheless are reiterating their guide.
Because, yes, you could interpret that as a sign of ignorance, but the market largely,
I think, is going to interpret that as a sign of confidence in expectations and confidence
that they can circumnavigate any
cost pressures around tariffs.
So those are the two themes in the commentary I'd be looking for, reiteration of guidance
and, you know, self-election of tariff immunity.
And I think in the cases where you can spot both of those things, I think you're going to see some really, really nice movers.
So I do think there's opportunity this earnings season.
On balance, though, I will say I think there's more risk to the downside
if we do get some of these bigger players come out and express some fear.
Yeah, we saw Netflix.
That was pretty good to be able to skirt that.
But we also saw UnitedHealth this morning
get absolutely destroyed
and the Dow itself got destroyed off of that move.
So, you know, you got to pick your spots.
But we'll say it's really funny.
I remember when the whole UnitedHealth thing happened.
That part's not funny,
but I remember when that whole thing happened,
there was somebody in my comments who said,
well, I'll buy the dip on UnitedHealth because I'm not a tech investor and I like lower risk stuff.
I just thought that that was funny because the stock was down 22% today.
But it just shows you in this market environment, in this market volatility,
like regardless of the sector you're in, regardless of how defensive you think it might be,
when the VIX is where it is and
volatility on an index level is where it is, you're going to get major, major moves in big
stocks. And I think people who have been holding MAG7 stocks this year probably can testify to that.
You know, MAG7 stocks have trimmed off trillions and trillions of dollars in market capitalization in just a matter of months.
And so if you don't think your favorite $200 billion company can trim off $50 billion in a night, you know, buckle up.
So, yeah, look, I don't want to be all doom and gloom either.
There's going to be a lot of winners this earnings season, in my opinion, as well.
A lot of big winners.
A lot of stocks that have been unjustifiably sold, babies that have been thrown out with the bathwater. That's the phrase I love
to use, but I think it's just really apt when it comes to these sort of events. But
those are going to be big winners. And I think if you pay attention to basic chart structure,
you don't need to be a rocket scientist to do this, just basic technical health.
You pay attention to that combined with thematic opportunity, things that make sense,
in other words, right? Plays like border security, which I talked about, plays like aerospace and defense, like I talked about, plays like rare metals, like I talked about. Those are areas
where the narrative makes thematic sense as well, right? So if you compare thematic sensibility with a strong chart,
with muted expectations, in other words, not everyone and their mother's talking about it,
you compare those three things, I think you could find some winners in this market environment. And
that's really been the formula for the winners that I've been able to find.
And be mindful, not every dart I've thrown has worked. There's been some stuff I've tried,
you know, stock didn't lift off, cool, cut it and move on. And on the other hand,
there's been stuff that's worked exceedingly well, right? There's stuff that's gone up
week after week after week this year in a very, very volatile market environment. So,
you know, pick your stocks wisely is the broader point.
And, you know, you look at names like, for example, Heritage Financial, which I normally have no interest in financials.
You look at that name, it was up another 4% or 5% today.
That thing is up like 55% year to date.
And I had no clue about the business.
In fact, I didn't know a thing about them.
I read an analyst note. I checked the chart. I looked at the specialty insurance theme and said,
okay, that fits the market environment. And then I bought it. And it just went up and up and up and
up every week. So sometimes you're going to get those big winners out of this sort of observational methodology.
And, you know, if your losers are a percent or two percent and you get huge winners like that, you know, that that really helps your portfolio in times like this, especially for those of you that are holding positions, long term positions like your mag seven stocks or whatever that have gone down a lot.
So, yeah, there you go.
Got my r in for the day
anyway, even though it was an hour late.
And bang, we do have a hard stop at
the top of the hour. It's okay that we're two
minutes late. Make sure you are following all
of the speakers up here.
Stock talk, we hope Leo's okay.
We appreciate you being here. Remind me, the stock market is
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But Sox on Spaces, every single Monday through Thursday,
3 to 5 p.m. Eastern, at least.
Appreciate you all.
And obviously, everything Sox Talk
was saying there, this whole space was recorded
so you can go back and listen to that entire rant
and everything before it, but we appreciate you all.
We've got a VC show starting up right now.
If you've got any final words, we can just close it out. show starting up right now. If you have any final words,
we can just close it out.
It's up to you.
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