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STOCK MARKET TALK | NEW 2X CAPPED ACCELERATED ETFs
Recorded: Aug. 19, 2025 Duration: 2:32:17Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. all right all right what is up everybody if you want to send me co-hosts we are getting started
if anyone did not see emperor doors post the guy who's been behind the Stocks on Spaces account a bunch here. He is off having a kid.
So congratulations to him and their whole family.
And honestly, my guess is he'll be on sooner than we think.
But I have no idea when Emp will be joining us back on the Spaces.
But everything is going well over there.
And we're super excited.
And we appreciate and are excited for him.
But we are back a
little bit of a red day here a little red my portfolio that was a bad one my portfolio is
down 1.7 percent so far today now when i'm looking at the indexes my guess won't be as bad spy down
0.7 qqq my guess we're gonna say down 1.4. It is down 1.5. All right, close.
So a little bit of a red day. Pull back.
I know a lot of these tech names that have been going off are pulling back here.
PLTR was one that's been getting talked about a bunch.
Palantir down at 10% now.
I'm going to look at the market cap quickly.
Palantir starting the day was larger than Home Depot and J&J.
$373 billion, so I believe it was like $430 billion.
It might be down like $60 billion market cap today.
Maybe it's $50, something like that.
Palantir with quite the red day.
Still around $157, though.
Not bad.
NVIDIA down $3 a half. Tesla down two.
Amazon down 1.8, while Apple relative outperformance today down just 0.5. Great stock,
great company. Uber, really actually one of the names showing some relative strength. It was
doing great. Now it's doing just solid. So a lot going on. This feels like a fantastic day to start with options, Mike, I feel like.
So come in, Mike.
Congrats.
Congrats on a good day today.
Shows him as a listener, actually.
Are you up here, Mike?
Michael?
The Giants also beat the Jets.
Not that that's saying much, but...
Alright, no worries.
Quick pivot.
Mr. Brian Lund.
I am getting confirmation from
Sam, who's hosting the Stocks on Spaces
account, that he's on good Wi-Fi
and will not rug the Spaces.
So, if it goes down,
his fault, not mine.
Brian Lunt, how are you doing today, sir?
Well, I appreciate being second.
I'm doing okay.
You know, in baseball, Brian, do you put the best hitter first,
or do you put the fastest or the best?
I'm not saying that you don't.
So you're saying that if you go to me fourth, I'm the best. Is that what you're saying? Maybe the biggest hitter, the big dog, you know, but that doesn't so you're saying that if you go to me fourth i'm the best is that what
you're saying uh maybe the biggest hitter the big the big dog you know but it doesn't mean you're
the best yeah you're good buddy um some could argue you want five because that guy's gonna
swing and miss and then five's gonna get in get a single two runs great yeah yeah um so yeah so
i look at this market today and we had a spaces earlier today when people were talking about what sectors are moving. Is this rotation?
technical trader. I don't think anyone should trade unless they have all their financial
foundation in place. Let's just say that right off the bat. But I speak to, I put my trading hat on
when I do this stuff. So if we are having sector rotation, for me as a trader, rotation from sector
to sector is not an apples to apples thing. There are some sectors I want to trade. There are some
sectors I don't want to trade because they're harder to trade. The stocks don't move in the same way. Like I don about rotation from style to style or different time
frames or rotating the frequency that you're trading. And I think that's what we're just
seeing here. We're seeing some definite risk off in the short term. Will it turn into risk off in
the longer term? We don't know yet. It's too early. But we've had a lot of things that have happened
anecdotally in the last couple of weeks that have been sure signs of frothiness in the market. And then when you get
the technicals to confirm them, it's pretty much time to just step back. For example, we had ETH
go crazy last week. We had BMNR go crazy last week. The Tom Lee, Cathie Woods vehicle. Pot has
been strong, which is never a good sign. Solars have been strong. When you get
these junky stocks and sectors that are starting to pop, that usually means we're kind of at the
end of the short-term exuberance. Chamath has a SPAC again, right? I mean, that can't be a great
sign short-term. Dave Portnoy is now trader Davey, day trader, that's never a good sign.
now trader day, bidet trader day. That's never a good sign. So I even saw that Kathy Woods had
record inflows to her funds last week. So you see that sort of short-term frothiness,
and then you get a technical date like today where things are just relentlessly being sold.
I mean, one of the things I do is I look on the intraday charts, the five-minute charts,
I put a five and nine and a 20 EMA on it. And those are just
different barometers for how strong the buying or the selling is during the day. And I have so many
stocks that could not get above the 20 at any point today. They've just been relentlessly sold
every time they rallied. So I think the real question is, what happens with some of these
former high flyers?
A couple of weeks ago, people were crowing that, oh boy, I'd love to get a pullback in Palantir to
buy some of this. I'd love to get a pullback in ASTS to buy some of this. I'd love to get a pullback
in Oklo or Oklo. I never know how you say it. Well, guess what? You got them now. All right.
You got pullbacks anywhere from like 15 to 25% today. The problem
is, is that price usually leads the narrative. Everybody wants to buy the pullback when things
are at all time highs, but they don't want to buy it when it's pulling back. So what I'm doing is
I'm looking at, you know, so I'm looking at ASTS, which is, you know, right about at its 50, you
know, it's below it right now. It was above a little bit earlier. This is
a spot where I'm going to watch to see what it does, because when you cross that 50, you're
crossing the barrier from intermediate term uptrend to an intermediate term downtrend.
And if you get caught on the wrong side of that, you can have a lot of downsides. So I'm watching
that. Palantir, you know, I was watching it at its gap and it just went
right through that. It's got the 50 day, about 154. I'm going to watch that to see if there's
anything that sets up intraday where I can define my risk. Oklo, Oklo, whatever, almost at its 50.
And I think the way that these stocks respond is going to be very informative for the next, you know, for the short
term, because a lot of these things have not been below their eight and their 21 for a while. They
haven't seen the eight and 21 crossover. If they pull back to the 50, that's a normal pullback and
an uptrend. If they fail that, that might be a different scenario altogether. So, you know, I
just think it's a little bit more risk off if you're short term. If you're longer term, you know, I just think it's a little bit more risk off if you're short
term. If you're longer term, you know, I don't think you have to worry yet, but you just want
to be sharp and make sure that you're operating within your timeframes, operating within your
risk parameters, and you're not doing anything stupid. Yeah, no, I think those are a lot of
fair points. This has been a bull bull market and
we haven't had that like we've tried there have been plenty of you know outside whatever you want
to call it type of colored swan events that come up and this market could have sold off on and they
haven't and now we're just kind of at a point where it's maybe a backtesting thing but we haven't
gotten that that you know exogenistic shock.
I don't know if I said that word correctly. I was trying to find a different word in my head for it,
but then I just decided to go right through the, right through the thing.
You did it right. Exogenist. Yeah, that's right.
Thank you. They're good. It's, it's not going bad, but we haven't had that.
Like, I don't see how, I don't see why my bias would be towards the downside at this point in time.
To me, in a prove-it market, the prove-its right now is to the downside.
So, yeah, I think that's a good point.
You've got to remember, too, that the summer, and particularly August, are usually not great times in the market.
And this has kind of been disguised by the whole tariff gain thing, right?
This normal seasonal action has been so distorted by abnormal event that maybe we're
just kind of catching up maybe we're getting that we're getting that that summer malaise that august
downturn a little bit later in the cycle than we would um so again just all you got to do you know
watch this i also i've definitely felt it in my life and stuff and business in general that summer kind of doldrums.
But I do wonder if maybe it's the part that this market is just, you know, when you're thinking about what's happening in the world for a lot of people, a lot of people are just focused on this more now than they were in the past.
Maybe the ability to trade and stuff.
Maybe what I'm saying here is retail's participation, maybe smoothening out some of those prior kind of seasonalities which are
changing specifically. I wonder if that's one of them.
If these outs are just trading more
in the Hamptons as opposed to fully clocking
off. And here's the great
thing, and this is why I'm a technical trader, because I
don't really have to know that, right? I mean, we can
theorize about this, sit at a bar
and have a couple beers. I love talking about that.
How has the volume been this year? How is the volume been this summer compared to like previous
years is it more yeah i don't know i don't know i'm someone that's more macro could probably tell
you but like uh this is a great thing about being a technical trader you just don't have to know the
answers to those things uh you just follow the technicals and and go where they take you i appreciate you i'm trying to get options mike
up here sam i don't know if you can get them up but then also give stock talk the co-host
probably didn't get the text yet uh i can do an option options mike imitation let's do honestly
bank do it let's go what'd you trade this morning, Brian? Well, you know, I was looking at the market here,
and I don't know.
Nothing really jumps out at me.
It seems a little unsure of itself.
That's my options, Mike, right there.
Not bad. Not bad.
I love your options, Mike.
I'm just giving you a hard time.
You only pick on those you love, right?
It's good. It's good.
It's good.
I totally agree.
Honestly, the people that I start to give crap to are definitely the people that I like
and the people that I just kind of don't say anything to.
Yeah.
We'll leave on, though.
I'm going to ignore stock talk for the day.
Wolfie, how are you going?
Good.
The only thing missing out of that impersonation was
saying what he took out the gate
otherwise spot on
good
good
not much really
to really
opine on it's been
slow couple of
volume wise slow couple days the last couple
days that's usually a tell couple of, you know, volume-wise, slow couple of days the last couple of days.
That's usually a tell.
Just to add to what Brian was talking about.
Some of the winners, right?
Like you had Microsoft kind of gap up.
It never really got, after earning, never really got its footing.
It would get these, you know, sales back to that, you know, that, what is it?
520 level? Yeah, 520 level?
Yeah, 520 level.
And then it would rally back down to that 520 level,
and then it would rally a little bit, and then it dried out.
Some of the rotation stuff went to a little bit of a defensive pivot.
That's usually a tell.
Some of these, you know, Momo names, like he said, kind of squeezed.
He had an Oracle headline last week, I think, that was talking about, you know, cutting names like he said kind of squeezed you had an oracle headline last week i think that
was talking about um you know cutting some some of that spending or reducing it possibly
treasury names were the theme can i say on that actually there was a headline today
around meta that went around saying that they are cutting ai spending or whatever that is not
it was a new york time one it was like a squawk or whatever that is not what it was a new york time one it was like a squawk or whatever
that's not what the story was they're restructuring the business into like four separate parts now
whatever the four units are and they are like they were saying that they haven't basically that
they've grown that division by thousands of people and they are going to let some people go
but that was definitely there were some people clinging to that headline on meta today which i
hopefully we'll talk about later.
But I didn't see the meta headline today for what it's worth.
I was just.
That's not what sent it lower.
It was already a week before that.
Yeah.
But.
No, the whole market's, the whole market's down, man.
Like to point to that headline is, as, you know, a reason for meta being down.
It's not really, you know, down crazy.
It's down 2%.
Given some of the run that it's
had two percent it's like not nothing nuts um you know it is it is battling it's 20 day and then
like it's gap up post er low range prior all-time high like 748 i think uh if it breaks down below
then you've got like 725 to look for it's a 50 day i think the real like the real thing to
kind of pay attention to here in the next couple days is going to be one does the s p hold this
20 day because we went that i think we went what like uh 67 days without you know um closing below
the 20 or testing the 20 or something like that um and so, you know, the test to me is going to be, is that 20-day test going to be held
or is it going to do what the cues are doing right now, which is just like snap right through
And the real reason there is, you know, you have a material amount lower that you can
go if we were to snap uh below it's not not to say that it'd be
like material and like change the course of the market but you do have you know two and a half
percent you can go uh from there and generally when you snap when you snap right through it's
it's that happens pretty quickly um and so you know just, you look at it and you have,
you have Jacksonville coming up, you have the minutes tomorrow,
you have two dissenters. So that's going to be an important,
an important thing to pay attention to. Like, why do they dissent?
What kind of commentary is there around it? Some of the, some of the leaders,
right? Some of the favorites, some of the, you know,
up into the right names have been,
that have been consolidating,
started to kind of like roll over as well.
So you take a look and you say,
where's the leadership going to come from
just in the intermediary?
And I don't really have an answer for you.
So it's just a classic,
just kind of like risk off moment,
just kind of reposition for, you know,
whatever intermediary sell that might come
and just kind of wait for mark your levels
and wait for them um you know take a look at like you know we were go back a few few months ago a
few weeks ago the ipo mania you just had to go ipo and then there's just kind of get chased well now
the opposite's happening figma uh went public today. It pushes through its IPO lows and it's down 18% below the IPO price. So like, you know, it's just a little bit of froth coming out, quote unquote froth. Take a look at like what was working earlier, what was leading utilities, some of these, you know, energy plays were kind of getting some bids. Some of these like defensive names are kind of getting some bids some of these uh uh uh like defensive names are kind of
getting bids last i checked like altrio was making a high day for example so it's like a very
in your face just matter of fact um defensive posturing and the last time i was on i was talking
about how you know some of the beaten up names in software kind of were inverse the strength in the AI
hardware and data center plays. And it wasn't a coincidence to me that the software names like
CRM, for example, Duolingo, for example, kind kind of were, you know, at the, at the, at the throes of
going to be displaced by AI. It wasn't, it wasn't a coincidence to me that those names found some
sort of floor while some of the AI favorites, you know, take NVIDIA, AMD, et cetera. You know,
some of the Oracle, et cetera, were finding some sort of profit taking i didn't
think that was coincidental um you know take a look at some of those names duolingo uh crm etc
meaningful balances somewhere between seven percent on crm i think uh duolingo mentioned
on the space i took long uh got 16 in a few days so you know i the they've come up into resistance now uh while some of these
you know uh ai chip hardware uh data center plays i've also started to see some sort of acceleration
to the downside so just kind of have to wait it out um have to be ready for a little bit more
selling probably uh take a look at what pow's going to say on Friday for Jackson Hole
and reevaluate from there.
NVIDIA earnings next week.
So if you get like a real sell in NVIDIA and take us out,
let's say to the 50-day, it'll put us at 165.
That's a pretty material sell-off, right?
It's like a little bit over 10%.
Couple that with some of the favorites like Palantir getting actual selling.
And it might give you a little bit of an earnings setup going into earnings.
So I don't think the selling is a bad thing.
I think washouts are good.
I think when things kind of roll over like this,
there are some tells and you just kind of have to take them as they come.
And for me, I'm just waiting for additional clarity on what's going to come of it.
Take a look at something like Apple last minute, because I know you're the Apple fan here.
Apple was showing real signs of strength relative to some of these other names it was the last one to kind of pop but apple a little
extended um apple's five day is like this 230 level give or take and that's five percent higher
than it's 200 days so if we do get some sort of follow through on the cell i think um that's one
that i'm going to be paying attention to
uh a five percent sell on apple or a four percent sell on apple reset back to that 200 days not a
bad setup gives you a reset back to that breakout point uh back to the 200 day what is that level
right now so here's what i want to say 221 220. they have the iphone event will be early, mid September.
And you're right on the way the stock looks.
So if we gave it a week and a half, week, two weeks.
I'll raise you.
I'll raise you.
I'll raise you.
Google's got their event tomorrow.
And they're going to likely, based on what they were saying, release one of those phones that opens up.
release one of those phones that opens up you know i don't think i know i've had some i've had some
people you know at me and and be in my mentions and in my dms about it about how like this could
be a problem for apple i don't think that the hardware anybody gives anybody who has an iphone
doesn't give a shit about the hardware like that like it's just a phone at this point for them
maybe an incremental camera i don't think
that they're gonna have like a mass exodus for people to go get a google phone um and my rebuttal
for anyone that thinks that is going to be blue bubbles it's it was like one of the best marketing
strategies they've ever had um but i do think that like the event itself could be you know just kind
of given where the stock's sitting given the run-up it's had could be some sort of like incremental push to get the stock down a
little bit uh just from a positioning standpoint just from a selling standpoint doesn't mean that
that that that's going to be in the iphone or that it's going to have a material impact
not saying any of that but just 8 20 tomorrow's event pay attention to it. And then the last thing that I'll mention is just whatever's going to come of this Russia, Ukraine, Trump situation.
If cooler heads prevail, cool.
If not, I want to pay attention to natural gas and some of these energy names, some of these pipeline names, etc.
So that's pretty much it for now.
If you have anything else, I'm happy to chime in and answer.
Appreciate you, Wolfie.
Yeah, that would make sense on Apple.
We'll see.
They're going to start.
They have to announce soon and when that event is.
So hopefully that's the start of the cycle picking up there.
I'm still holding.
Okay, we'll talk about it later. I appreciate you, Wolfie.
Thank you, thank you. Let's go over to...
Yeah, the whole point was, if it gets back
to 220, it's not the end of the world.
You know, it goes right back to that breakout,
right back to that 200-day.
215 was the level that was really
being the resistance before.
So, I mean, holding that, and we're still not
in a horrible place, but, you know, holding higher
than that... Yeah, but you got the 200
days at 221
20 days like 219
218 somewhere around there so that's
the whole point. Oh yeah sorry last
last thing. Congratulations to
Emp.
Pin post up on the nest above if you guys want to say
something nice
you can check that tweet up there. In my head
I was thinking here of maybe closing down one or two of these calls i have right now maybe looking to reopen them in
a week or two because i don't necessarily disagree but we shall see oh okay it was me joining us i
know options mike has been having a lot of troubles so i've been watching that but stock geek you've
been up here since the start how are you doing today sir anything you want to throw into the mix and what we've been talking about what topics are uh
what's in your car you're all right today and yeah i'm loving the bearish action to be honest i put
on some some quick put spreads and put protection earlier in the week um not only because of the
potential momentum rotation that we were seeing, but mainly because Friday, possibility
for a negative surprise there, Jackson Hole. I don't really think we'll get a massively
negative surprise, but the setup is there for it. So wanted to put on a little protection,
a little lucky on the timing, feeling good though. Yeah, it's honestly outside of that,
it's kind of a boring day, you know, trying to watch for what's strong or what's, uh, what's bouncing a little bit,
but we're not really seeing much of that yet.
So probably pretty early to see that.
But, um, you know, I, I do think it's going to be obviously pretty important to see, like,
if we have a more of a full on quant quake where we get like significantly worse drawdowns in some
of these momentum names or if we actually just have another one of these two to three day pullbacks
and it gets bought up quickly. Saw an interesting chart earlier today saying that essentially
there's some seasonality, typical seasonality to retail flows into the market and that September
actually tends to be one of the weaker months.
So we know the seasonality of returns as well.
Obviously, August, September tends to be a little bit dicier,
but interesting to note the retail flows also tends to be weaker seasonally in September.
So we could see follow through on the downside with some of the Momo names
and some of the more retail favorite
names. So I'm kind of watching the basket of retail favorites. Again, I think it's kind of
too early to tell, but yeah, loving, kind of loving the bear's price action. I think it's,
it's healthy, honestly. You know, I, funny, funny enough though, people were talking about the
Chama SPAC as being the top. I don't think it's the top. I actually think that I'll buy some shares in that SPAC, by the way, because what people,
I think, forget about the Chama SPACs is that they actually perform pretty well for SPACs,
not only pre-deal, but also typically right after deal close.
It's the one, two, three-year timeframes after where the businesses don't actually prove to be very good businesses where things, the rubber meets the road, I guess you could say.
But I think the Chama SPAC actually, I'd be willing to bet it's going to be fairly oversubscribed from the institutional side.
And then on the retail side, I think we could even see it trade up pre-deal.
On the retail side, I think we could even see it trade up pre-deal.
So, yeah, I'm going to watch that.
But I think I may be in the contrarian camp there that it's a SPAC perhaps worth owning, believe it or not.
But curious what others think on that.
Doc Talk, I know you often talk about SPACs and you going balls deep.
Yeah, I'm not touching that, no.
You going to trade it, you think, though?
I know you enjoy trading these ones before they do
the merger. Yeah, something means something.
You're probably not going to get it at $10 if we're being real,
but...
Yeah, I mean, I'm not buying Chamaths spec.
Not even considering
it. Chamath has burned
too many people.
I just don't think he's like a...
I mean, I don't want to say a lot of people are genuine, but I just don't think he's like a... I mean, I don't want to say a lot
of people are genuine, but I just don't think he's
a genuine person in general.
I just don't like him. I don't like the
guy.
I have the exact same feeling.
It's so funny. He just comes across as totally...
Comes across as scammy.
Yeah.
I don't trust him.
And he's my least favorite character on the All-in pod in that he often tries to take these intellectual positions and speaks from both sides of his mouth on the same issue on different episodes.
It's kind of crazy.
And congrats.
Guys, I agree with you.
I agree with you.
But that's not what I'm saying here.
What I'm saying here is he's high profile enough that he might actually get one of the better SPAC deals out of this cohort of SPACs.
Therefore, that's what people are missing from the investing side of the ledger.
I agree.
If the target is something that's like, you know, overwhelmingly-
If he takes Andrew Public, you go full in?
Yeah. Yeah. If he takes Andrew Public-
That's what I'm saying.
Yeah. I don't think that's going happen i mean it'll probably be there aren't many high profile
private companies there aren't many there's like 10 maybe also high profile private companies don't
need to go public in a spack spack is viewed as very negatively for high profile companies to go to a public in
that way. And there have been exceptions to that. Obviously, there have been some SPACs that have
done very well, like in a draft Kings is an example of that. And there's SPACs that have
gone way above NAV and stayed above NAV. But yeah, I just can't wrap my mind around like what
target he would take public in this environment that would be like an incredible target to be taking public.
I can't think of one, but maybe, I mean, yeah, I don't want to say never say never.
I guess if he does get some sort of, you know, insane target, then maybe I'll consider it.
But other than that, like, I just don't like the guy.
I don't trust the guy.
And maybe that's not even not a good reason to buy his back.
I just don't want to be involved with it.
But, yeah, we'll see.
I think he's done a little bit of damage to his rep.
I think that the sheen that he had back then isn't the same as well.
I don't disagree with the numbers, Stock Geek.
I don't know.
The All In podcast is bigger than it's
ever been is his microphone not bigger than it's ever been yeah but i'm not looking at it from that
perspective there's also if you're a company do you want to do you want to attach yourself
to you know that track record of maybe you get a pump and then historically outside of i think so
fi none of them have really worked like Take a look at DM, for example.
That's the one that I can think of off the top of my head that I know for a fact has gone down the shitter.
So I think that's a real question that those management teams will ask themselves.
Do you want that hype versus trying to battle that?
And I don't know.
But I think the comment that these guys made like it all
depends on what the name is obviously it'll be an interesting trade before that's announced
don't forget virgin galactic don't forget spc i forgot about that one yeah sp
clover was another one yeah clover clver was the other one.
It's like five of them.
Right.
So like,
do you want to add the management team?
Do you want to go through that?
Are you desperate enough to go to the public markets?
And I think a lot of these companies that are,
you know,
of actual substantive value that,
that have a high profile,
they've actually decided to hold off on going
public. The public thing, they've been able to tap private markets for liquidity events for quite
some time. And the public, they're going public a lot later and a lot bigger these days. So I don't
know, but we'll see. It just totally depends on the name, obviously, but I'm a little skeptical of his sheen.
People that don't remember, SPCE was his first one.
He was on the chair, and then he sold all of his shares basically at the top for a profit of like $400 million.
And then he came out and publicly told all of the retail shareholders of SPce that he was committed to the company that they were like
you know world class in technology that they had a moat this this and that after selling his entire
stake and like pounding the table on the company and then the stock proceeded to go down 99 like
yeah he also did that on open door and clover i mean like he basically screwed the retail investors
after he built a reputation a good reputation people started
trusting him and then he just totally fucked over everyone uh yeah the reputation is like
completely shattered listen the great thing about the ground floor of a ponzi scheme is sometimes
to make money you know doesn't mean it's not going to go down ultimately but it could be a fun ride
for a couple weeks.
Yeah, but I'm with Stock Talk,
and there's plenty of other ways to make money than to try to support this guy.
It'll be interesting to see what the interest is.
And there's this whole thing going on.
I don't know how big the All In podcast was,
but a lot of these people's favorite show
or something like that.
So I don't know
we'll see you gotta think you know the the all-in guys too have ties to the trump admin so i mean
again look i share all of your sentiment about charlotte as a person and about who he is as an
investor even but i'm looking at it as i think a contrarian potential that's all i was trying to
say because of the high profile,
the connections to the admin, et cetera. So I don't know. I mean, yeah, I don't think it's
necessarily a bad idea. Like I'm not saying you can't make money on it or that you won't make
money on it. I mean, you, you're a good trader. You'll probably find a way to, you know, um,
make a trade off of it, but I just don't want to give him my money. Like I just don't want to buy
anything that he has to do with.
And maybe that's silly of me to be investing or trading off the principal
because I typically don't do that.
I'm not one of those guys that's like,
oh, this doesn't fit my moral profile, so I'm not going to invest in it.
I typically don't care about that stuff.
Long defense names.
Raytheon to the moon.
No, I'm kidding. Sorry.
If it was David Sachs,
he has a different level of respect
and authenticity on the show.
I think if it was him doing it,
I'd be all over it.
But Chamath just has already ruined
his credibility with me.
Stock talk.
I want to come over to you.
It's not rant time yet, but
obviously we have some moves
in the market.
My only rant from today is I got a little punch in the face
like I'm sure a lot of people did on today.
So, yeah, I mean,
a lot of stuff was down today.
Not many places to hide, but yeah there's not not too
much to rant on for me today just a a nice little red day you know happens sometimes what are you
doing on a day like today is it just uh is it just just watching chart structure flipping through
names yeah looking at some weekly charts making sure nothing's like too ugly to hold. And some stuff might be too ugly to hold
by the end of the week. We'll see. But I try to keep like a, I always say this, I try to keep a
chill attitude during market pullbacks, even if stock individual stocks are down a lot, because
usually when daily charts start breaking down, there's somewhere on the weekly that you can
find some structure and say, you know what?
I could see this holding here or, you know, there looks like to be the more downside here.
Maybe I should get back at, get out, back out and get back in later.
You know, you can make those types of decisions, but I'm still, even after today's action, still OK with most of the stuff I own.
There might be some stuff I cut it to the end of the week if it can't recover some key spots. But yeah, I mean, markets can't go up all the time. A lot of times when
stocks, I've said this before, you have multiple momentum stocks or market-leading stocks that are
very extended on their daily charts. That's what generally tends to lead to moments like this,
where you have market-leading stocks across five or six different industries that are simultaneously
extended. And then you just sort of need a flush out day like this, where you have broad selling
and momentum and leadership. And at least this morning under the surface, there was a bit of
rotation that faded into the end of the day, obviously, as most of the indexes turned red
into the back half of the session but you still have home builders you know
up 1.7 percent of the day xhb you still have consumer staples green health care green financials
green you know airlines yeah intel um xle slightly green so you do have a couple of indexes you know
the the quote-unquote boring areas that we were sort of talking about yesterday that are holding water. So, yeah, action like this is normal, but it can be brutal if you're, you know, weak
stomached and you get shaken out of stuff.
Because if you get shaken out of stuff on days like today, it's really, really hard
to get back in.
You know, it's hard.
It's much harder to get long than it is. It's much harder to get long than it is.
Sorry, much harder to get long than it is to stay long.
So, yeah, I mean, not too many thoughts on today outside of an unwind.
Why do I think it happened on today?
Probably because we're on the eve of Jackson Hole.
And there's probably some fear from investors that we're going to see a similar moment to the infamous Jackson Hole that marked
a local top where we ended up falling 12 or 13 percent after that. Maybe this one does too.
You know, I think the only similarity between now and then was that, yeah, markets were pretty
euphoric headed into that meeting as they are or have been headed into this one. So I don't blame
people for thinking that, you know, if there are investors today who are saying, oh, I want to just get some exposure
off ahead of Jackson Hole. I don't think it's a terrible idea. I understand why people are doing
it. Do I expect Powell to be as hawkish as he was back then? Probably not. Although he may make a
reference to the PPI data and may, you know, bring the inflation boogeyman out again, which I think could be an issue for markets.
But yeah, I mean, outside of that, I'm just taking it day by day.
I can't, I don't want to make a crazy leap here and be like, yeah, this is the local
top, unwind everything.
I mean, we lost the 90 amount of spikes today, which, you know, isn't a great thing, but
we did lose it earlier last week as well, or the week before, poked down through the 21 actually into the 619 area, and then rebounded all
the way back up to 646, so then had a big move to the upside.
Maybe we come back into the 21 EMA at the end of the week.
If we break below it, I'll put hedges on as I normally do when we break below the 21,
and if not, then I won't, and that's kind of what i'm thinking but
yeah market action looks all right despite all the selling today
did you have a question you were leaning into by the way well when we were kind of talking with
brian um he was kind of talking i'm looking at these couple names that have been high flyers
that are pulling back.
I believe it was the 200 or the 50.
I believe it was the 50, actually, that they were coming back and testing.
Oclo, one or a few other ones in there.
And for me, when we're looking at this market, I still think which direction we're going,
the prove it direction, would still be lower.
This has been a positive lean up where I'm sure most of your indicators,
most of your stuff are telling you
you're still in a bullish market
on some of these longer timeframes.
So yeah, my kind of question was,
what are those stocks here?
What are we looking at here to kind of confirm,
hey, this is still this bullish market.
This is still maybe more confirmed.
This would be a different market and it's changing because I still think that,
you know, we can look easily look back in two days from now,
heading into Jackson Hole, nothing's changed.
We're two, 3% higher.
And it's just back to the exact same thing.
That being the next couple of days wouldn't surprise me.
So I guess really what I'm asking here is what are you looking for to kind of tell you
the difference between i gotta get out of some of these stocks that are more taking the bets on
the lifts that aren't core positions versus maybe doubling down on some of them and looking for
areas to get into yeah um so there's two things i look at. First of all, I look at individual technical structure on all the, all the individual stocks
I own.
So I just go through them daily, weekly and monthly charts.
I don't look at anything below.
I've like, it's been years since I look at anything below the daily timeframe.
I like, don't look at five minute charts.
I look at 30 minute charts.
I don't look at any of that stuff.
I've never needed to look at it.
And I mean, for scalpers or day traders, yes, you obviously have to look at timeframes below
the daily, but I'm not a scalper or a day trader. So I don't, but yeah, I flipped to the daily,
weekly and monthly charts. I make sure structure's intact. Then I go to the indexes and ask myself,
like, what's a worst case scenario for the indexes? And based on my assessment of those two things, I manage risk, right?
I either cut peripheral positions that I have, you know, cost-based advantages on that aren't
as deep as my core positions.
Those are always subject to just be cut.
And so I'll potentially cut some of those.
I didn't cut anything today, but if the action worsens into the end of the week, there will
be names that get cut because a lot of stocks sold today right into support on their weekly charts and you know they
need to secure weekly closes above those levels if they don't then there's going to be bigger
breakdowns in the next few weeks and i don't want to be involved in those breakdowns obviously on
the long side so um it's an it's an important week to have a strong close, uh, after today's
action for a lot of individual names. If you don't get it, then yeah, you may be headed for
a bigger correction. And, you know, if you get, if you get a lack of recovery on the weekly charts
combined with a daily breakdown on the S and P 500 below the 21 EMA, that's exactly what happened
in late February, which led to brutal selling in March and April. Um, like that's exactly what happened in late February, which led to brutal selling in March and April.
Like that's exactly what happened. So if that happens again, I will get out of the way and I will put our hedges on most likely. I'm obviously not going to sell my core stuff, but I will
probably sell some trading positions and put hedges on in that scenario. But we still have a few days
to decide that, you know, we still have Wednesday, Thursday, Friday to see how the action goes into
the end of the week. The close will be very very important though so
yeah i look at technical structure on individual names and i look at technical structure on the
indexes generally on the indexes i'm more focused on the structure on the daily because indexes can
spend a lot of time extended on the weekly and monthly charts especially in bull markets they
they like an extended s p 500 on the weekly chart in the bull especially in bull markets. An extended S&P 500
on the weekly chart in a bull market is not bearish because it can be extended for months or years
on the weekly. So I tend to look when I'm looking at the technical structure of the indexes at the
daily chart because it gives me a little bit more of a grasp on what might happen in the immediate
term. And then all my individual names, I'm looking at all three timeframes, look at the daily, weekly and the monthly, because some
of those individual names are longer term positions. And like if I have a long like
genius sports, for example, which is a higher conviction position for me, I'm not going
to sell it on a breakdown of the daily chart. And in fact, today, there was no breakdown
on the daily chart of genius, right? Genius held the nine EMA today. So there's no concern anyway. But even if it did, let's say it did break the 9 EMA today,
I'm still not a seller because that's a higher conviction position, right? I'd be looking at
the monthly on Genius and asking myself, is there a monthly breakdown? And of course there's not.
I mean, that's one of the prettiest monthly charts in the market. So yeah, that's the sort
of stuff I'm doing. It's like on my longer term stuff, I'm asking myself is, is the higher timeframe structure intact
on my shorter term stuff.
I'm asking myself is the shorter timeframe structure intact and then making decisions
based off that it's pretty procedural for me.
Like there's not a lot of emotion involved.
I know that's funny saying that cause we just, I was just talking shit about Tremoth, but
outside of, outside of, uh, you know, a handful
of, of strong opinions that I hold, I'm generally not emotional about stuff.
I'm pretty procedural.
You know, if there's something I really want to own and it breaks down, oh, well, I'll
get out of it and maybe get back into it later when it starts shaping up again.
But, um, yeah, that's kind of my thinking right now.
And obviously I do own a lot of momentum names.
So as momentum slows, I do get hit hard by it from a performance standpoint.
But that's usually not a reason for me to sell those core positions.
Because even if they bleed out, consolidate a little bit, start to rebuild structure,
when the markets do get into their enthusiastic state again those stocks tend to
perform well um again so i don't really worry too much about the core names at any point but
most of that monitoring stuff is relevant to my trading positions
and lift by the way which you mentioned no breakdowns on the daily on that today either
so that's not really on my list of cutting
candidates. I mean, it's a bit extended
on the daily
over the 50. Maybe
could easily come back
into that $15 area at the 50-day moving
average and retest it, but
no breakdowns on that one.
Uber looking strong.
I haven't done the look I should
probably to know how they compare and trade
together, but that doesn't make me feel bearish. Yeah. I mean, look, like Lyft was down two and a
half percent today, right? Most of its peer market cap stocks were down a lot more than that.
I'm fine with that action. And yeah, Uber does look great and Uber performed well today as well.
But yeah, the Uber chart looks fantastic.
It curls back here.
It's likely going to break 100 here in the next few weeks if all things remain equal.
It's definitely headed back to those 97 highs based on how it's acting right now.
But I mean, look, I had some names that got clapped today, like UUUU,
which was the name in my portfolio that was down the most,
was down like 19% today.
Everything else was down not much, but AUR was down 7.5. They had a short report this morning.
I had a bunch of names down 4%, 5%, 6%.
We did the short report.
Honestly, great timing.
Great day.
It's been a tough market.
Great day.
I mean, the report was asked.
CareSc still is terrible
care still shorted like ion q oclo asts joe b care still is like the worst short report
organization out there but yeah it was well timed for them today certainly um but even like pen
barely budged today that's one of our newer positions i think barely budge was down like
0.5 i think it was green this morning
too. Materion, which I spent a lot of time talking about.
That's our Borealium play. That stock hasn't even given up the 9 EMA.
No breakdowns today. Parsons,
PSN, that had a recent 200-day breakout.
Defended the 9 EMA today. No significant breakdowns. Huntington
Ingalls, same thing. There were names on my portfolio that held up well.
There were names on my portfolio that didn't hold up well.
And that's part of the game.
That's okay.
You know, and the stuff that breaks down, I'm looking at it to say, okay,
I'll give you a chance at the end of the week to recover structure.
And if you don't, then you get cut, you know?
So, yeah, I kind of treat it like a roster.
I treat it like a football roster.
That's how I treat my portfolio.
If you're not performing, you're out.
Football rosters are pretty big.
What would you call a basketball lineup?
12-man squad?
Well, I mean, I have
17 positions right now, so bigger than a basketball team.
The basketball team's
got some, you know,
bench warmers. We'll keep moving now.
Circle back on that.
I appreciate you, Stock Talk.
Amid, we got you up here with us.
I know you've talked a little in here.
Is there anything that you got that's catching your eyes today?
Any of your stocks have any?
I don't know if I'm reporting earnings.
We have Toll Brothers, Keysight Bank, I believe this is.
Keys.
One or two names reporting earnings.
Lazy Boy. Did you guys know Stock Talk? I. One or two names reporting earnings. Lazy Boy.
Did you guys know Stock Talk?
I've been to his house.
It has three Lazy Boys.
One for each floor.
It's quite impressive.
But they report earnings after the close.
I don't know a single Lazy Boy, but I do have a nice couch.
I'm sure Lazy Boy makes couches, too.
I think of them as those recliner thingies, but I don't know.
Surprised, dude. I thought you were a big fan what's up i mean though i haven't been looking at uh earnings this week so far um zoom coming up on thursday is kind of interesting it's you know
like obviously the covet darling but as a zoom, I always keep an eye on them. They still seem
to have the best product out there, which is surprising all these years later. But they
haven't been able to grow their revenue, which is the reason their stock price hasn't really
been performing well. But no, today's the kind of day you kind of go in hibernation.
Like my top two holdings are down pretty heavily, uh, Rocket Lab at eight and a half
percent and Robin Hood at six and a half percent down, like, uh, both of them down heavily.
The entire portfolio today is down like 4%.
It's like one of the, uh, definitely on the worst sides, probably top five worst days of the
year so far.
So, you know, it's like you kind of go into hibernation and just not do anything, stay
patient.
Like Stock Talk was saying, I'm mostly long the market, so I'm just going to wait it out
and see what happens.
And then if prices get suppressed pretty heavily on other things that I really like,
then I might use some of my cash, which is my third largest position, to buy some stuff that might be...
Where do you think that cash would go? That's my question.
Well, the things that I've been buying up recently are Rivian and Bumble, and neither one is down substantially today.
In fact, Bumble is up 1.5%.
The other name that I would add more to would be Meta.
So if Meta goes down pretty substantially, I think Meta is executing so perfectly.
so perfectly uh zuckerberg just seems to be on top of his game and uh if i could own more meta at a
Zuckerberg just seems to be on top of his game.
better price than current price then i would i would be on top of that for sure um so yeah i may
have bought another share of meta today i didn't know why i was down two percent i think meta was
underperforming earlier in the day from the start so that's the thing that i am a fan of we'll see
i i plan on buying those new smart glasses
that come out with the display.
Oh, yeah, me too.
Depending on exactly what it is,
but for what I'm expecting it to be,
that's compelling, $800 maybe.
Yeah, I mean, one thing that Zuckerberg
is learning quickly is that, like,
A, price matters,
and you got to keep at it
in order to sort of get get a build up a
great market share so with the Ray-Ban glasses smart glasses it's like this is going to be their
third major version this year that they're going to release and things usually come about in v3
right like so v3 of this product could be the one that sells in the tens of millions and then
v4 could potentially sell hundreds of millions of units depending on how well they get it right
they uh i suspect the biggest challenge is going to be battery tech especially on the glasses that
have a display like the battery is probably only going to last you a couple hours but if they could figure out the battery and get it get it to be an all-day battery
by v4 v5 this is a product that i think would easily sell you know 100 million units a year
and these guys are like definitely in the lead position a company that could potentially have
that lead position but doesn't get could potentially have that lead position,
but doesn't get pricing right anymore is Apple, right?
Like all their new products are priced out of range
for people to buy.
So I'm more excited about Meta than Apple.
Do you see we also had, I appreciate you Hamid,
not as much the negative Apple comments at
the end, but still appreciate you.
I saw we had Frank joining us up here.
I know we got seven minutes left till the market closes, and we're trading futures a
lot, so it's trading in different areas.
But Frank, you got any comments about your day in the market today?
Maybe anything you want to get in before the close?
We appreciate you being here and hanging out with us.
Kind of rode the nine down all day.
Just hit it again.
Selling off.
I put some UNH puts on yesterday, 300s.
I covered them an hour and a half ago.
Low volume, so I'm not convinced this is too bad.
But it's a pretty broad sell-off, so we'll see.
Yeah, we are about six minutes from the close.
Queues are down about 1.5%.
I mean, I'm sure we're going to hear the stats and this is the worst day since whatever date.
I haven't seen what date that's going to be, but I know the Dow Jones literally hit an all time high earlier today.
So, yeah. Sorry. literally had an all-time high earlier today no don't sorry yeah so well we'll
see how it ends up happening there like I said not too too many earnings coming
up after the clothes that we're watching today I don't believe there's any like
investor events or anything either no more speeches coming up today. Let me check one other place.
Tuesday. There's a Rosenblatt AI conference going on, but we won't see much from that.
All right. So that is a lot of today. Nothing much going on. Okay. A couple of the news stories
that may be stood out. Well, actually, of the news stories that maybe stood out.
Well, actually, does anyone have anything they want to get in there
before the market closes?
We've got five minutes left, stock's still trading.
Any position updates, anything like that?
So you're going to me?
I was just throwing it out there in general.
So the sounding of that one was a no.
No, I didn't do anything to it.
No, that is fair for this type of day.
There wasn't that many news stories that also stood out to me.
There was a couple things around a Bessent conversation this morning.
He was saying stuff around NVIDIA that they will require a license for any new China chip or whatever.
But that NVIDIA is working on a new chip
for the Chinese market based on their new infrastructure.
There was talks about, I don't know,
we'll have to end up be following,
but it seems like we might be heading for this licensing thing
again and again for NVIDIA,
and any clarity there might not have been gotten.
Send comments this morning were interesting.
If we do also want to give myself the pat on the back,
the bend the knee trade, the Intel play has continued to work.
Lyft pulled back today.
I did roll the Intel calls up to the 27 this morning,
and I'm holding some still in there.
We'll see if it keeps going.
It pulled back since, but that was an interesting one.
All right, stock talk what's up the uh that sports kind of theme the espn theme is one that you've been pretty interested in we have their dtc platform the 30 per month one is launching i
think tomorrow is launching this week let me double check when it's launching.
You're going to be able to get the ESPN app and like watch these shows.
I know they're excited about it.
It is.
We have Google event tomorrow.
Thursday is when this is launching.
Football is also back.
DraftKings is in a bunch of,
is in a bunch of states.
How does this trade normally work out for you?
Like, is this a trade to think you're going to be out by a couple of states? How does this trade normally work out for you?
Is this a trade you think you're going to be out by a couple weeks into the NFL season?
Is that how this kind of feels like going?
That wouldn't surprise me.
Depending on where the stocks go, I could be.
I mean, you know, we'll see.
We'll see what happens with the stocks.
But, yeah, for me, it's more so about this collision that's happening between the NFL and Disney.
Not a negative collision, a good collision, I guess, cooperative collision.
But I just think there's billions and billions of dollars of value on the table for the integration that's happening, you know, you have four or five massive media properties,
multiple NFL games, Red Zone, NFL Network that are being transferred from the NFL to Disney.
Disney is then taking those and folding that into their live TV offering.
And there's multiple smid cap companies that fit around that bend.
You know, Genius I've talked a lot about, and I don't think I need to repeat more about Genius Sports here.
I've talked about it hundreds of times in these spaces.
But Genius is sort of a winner agnostic exposure to that theme because Disney, even though they're getting those programs from the NFL, still has to get the data from Genius because they're the exclusive data provider. So now Disney shows will be integrating Genius data as well. And so to me,
Genius wins either way. And in fact, there are people that were talking today, I think DraftKings
was down this morning because there was a report about these poly markets expansion coming back
to the US and how you millions of users are signing up to these apps
and people are like, Oh, it's a risk to sports betting because now you can sports bet through
the, uh, through the, um, betting markets, the, the, the odds markets. And I kind of chuckled
at that because it doesn't matter. Genius still provides the data, even if Polymarket or Kalshi are using sports betting.
So the beauty about Genius is that even if the sports books lose business to the betting markets,
Genius still provides the data. So I sort of chuckled at that this morning and thought that
that was interesting and just made me even more confident with my genius position. So that's kind of where genius fits into that.
Penn Gaming fits into that because they run the ESPN bet app.
How do you feel about the Robinhood adding it?
Do you think it's a net positive TAM expansion,
or do you think it's a net negative?
It goes into the, hey, this is just a betting place,
that kind of aspect of it.
No, I mean, I think Robin is trying to do everything.
I'm fine with them adding it.
I don't think it's a bad thing that they're adding it.
Did you see some of the stats that they were saying
that of all the contracts that they've been traded so far,
like 5% market just closed, by the way.
5% were economic contracts and like 95% were sports.
That was interesting.
Yeah, I would imagine that.
I'm not surprised by that.
I imagine most people want to bet on sports instead of economics. But yeah, that's interesting yeah i would imagine that i'm not surprised by that i imagine most people
want to be on sports instead of economics but yeah that's interesting but yeah pen gaming they
run the espn bet app um i've never really been interested in pen stock but the reason we got
long on it was because um there's a story out last week from a Disney insider that the new ESPN app is
going to have direct links to the ESPN bet app.
That to me is interesting. That makes Ben interesting. You know,
before that,
I didn't think it was interesting because I didn't know how that integration
was going to work. And there are analysts on the street that have speculated
about this too. Like I think it was evercore might have been evercore i don't
remember this months ago that i read this note but um they wrote a note on this and were talking
about the fact that um they were unsure how the integration was going to work because apparently
there were executives at disney that were worried about integrating sports betting into their media
business because you know they feel like it hurts their like family friendly image. And this is sort of why, I mean, ESPN has been owned by
Disney for a long time for people that don't know, but for a long time, many people didn't even know
that, that ESPN was owned by Disney because they intentionally kept ESPN's content at arm's length.
Like the commentators on ESPN, a little bit more mature,
making a little bit more mature jokes. You know, there's sexual references on ESPN. There's like,
it's, it's more, it's more adult geared content. Right. And Disney acknowledged that and wanted
to keep it at an arm's length from all the Marvel shit and all their like, you know, kids geared content. And that was the decision for a long
time. But when Bob Iger came back and this whole sports betting thing started picking up heat,
they realized that ESPN is a massive property for sports betting, right? Like our massive
potential property. And that's when the deal happened with Penn and ESPN. And that's when Penn dropped barstool for ESPN, for those that remember that.
And, um, you know, they, they, they went Disney's way. So I think they will see a lot of traffic
from that direct link, uh, on the ESPN app. And I think it's a smart way to do it. So yeah,
that, that was my thinking there and
like i said they're sort of related to that collision as well and then with fubo obviously
for those that don't know that connection is obvious they're working on a merger with uh hulu
live tv which will now have red zone and nfl network so it's a more robust hulu live tv than
it was prior regulators still have to comment on that, obviously, but Hulu Hulu does have an ongoing proxy merger vote,
which is going to be September 30th,
but there's early voting ongoing.
I don't see a scenario
in which the institutional shareholders of Fubo
would turn down that merger.
I just don't see a scenario.
If the merger goes through,
we'll see if there's a ticker change.
The CEO was actually commenting
and liking on some posts,
people suggesting ticker change.
Some people were suggesting
they change the ticker to Hulu, H-U-L-U.
But we'll see what happens with that.
But that merger date is September 30th.
And if that goes through,
I think the stock deserves to re-rate higher.
I think it's worth a lot more than 1.3 billion if they own 30% of that joint venture.
So, yeah, that's sort of my sports betting.
It's not a sports betting basket, actually.
I don't want to phrase it that way.
It's my basket to play the collision between the NFL and Disney,
which I think will produce billions of dollars of downstream value for these SMID caps.
So, yeah, those are my comments on the sports betting and Disney thing.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Disney has been – I'm not surprised that you're not playing it through Disney.
Obviously, that is quite the large company,
and that one has been round-tripping 85 and 120 like 10 times at this point so wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't again honestly but hey maybe this is
this is a theme that can break it out of it hasn't been any news stories in after hours
by the way so there really hasn't been anything there
yeah very quiet market ahead of i mean there wasn't even much options flow today
at all on anything up like not even i'm not talking – I mean, there wasn't even much options flow today at all on anything.
Like, not even – I'm not talking about no calls.
Like, there wasn't much flow on the put side either today.
So, yeah, clearly a market that is attempting to prepare for what could be a disruptive speech.
Yeah. Yeah, the question is, is, like, what are people expecting powell to say there's maybe for
a little bit there was come in strike a super devish tone that's probably not what you're
gonna get like i just don't know what people are expecting at this point he's probably gonna leave
the door open both sides a lot of the times in this recent market we've come to a point of clarity
it's just turned into a point of more questions.
Now, most of that's Trump, but I wonder if Friday is going to be that as well.
And we're actually waiting for a temporary cut.
So, I don't know.
I can see how it's a difficult day to trade.
Maybe good for those intraday traders.
Although, I don't even know what the type of chop was.
I've seen this Keysight Technology reported.
Revenue
Beat, EPS, I don't know.
I don't think anyone really watches this one, but what
is the stock doing in After Hours?
I got the keys, keys, keys
up 2.5%. It's a $30 billion
company. Maybe I just don't
know it.
I know I haven't talked about analyst reports a lot recently,
but there was one really interesting one out this morning on target
hospitality,
which what's the tech?
You might be familiar with TH TH.
So I was up like 7% today on that report,
but it was out from Stiefel.
So for those that don't know Target Hospitality,
they kind of fit into the border security group.
You can think about stocks like Geo, CoreCivic, CXW,
and Target Hospitality.
Those are sort of like the three that people have been focused on
when they're trying to trade the border security play.
There are others as well, but that's just a quick little top group,
I guess, that gets talked
about the most but anyway target hospitality does management of detention centers and government
facilities along the border for the u.s government and recently they have inked some contracts to do
data center management which is interesting and so steve will comment around this morning
um and said the stock deserves to be re-rated off that they raised their price target from 750 to 11
stock jumped like seven percent today on that report um but i thought it was an interesting argument so they signed a two-year contract worth 43 million for data centers. And they said, based on our conversations
with management and customers, we believe there are several similar deals in Target Hospitality's
pipeline. So I thought that was really interesting. I didn't take a position in it today. I was just
too busy monitoring other positions, but it ended up doing really well.
But that could be an aim to continue to watch if they do ink more data center contracts.
The stock would probably be re-rated in a scenario like that from a government services
play to an AI play.
So that's interesting.
But yeah, Stifel is a great sell side shop and they put out great research, but that
was a great note this morning from them on that stock.
And it ended up brushing off the broader market sell-off
and trading higher on that so that was interesting
yeah there have not been many analyst reports i've definitely been seeing less of them on the
major companies but not not right around earnings there was i know i don't know how much value there
is in all these i saw an NVIDIA one this morning.
Who was it?
TD brought their price target up to two something.
I saw a Robinhood analyst report this morning as well.
What was the Robinhood one?
Price target increased to 160.
Do you know who it was by?
I want to say Bernstein, but I might be wrong.
I don't know.
Stock talk if you looked into that one at all.
I did not see it.
The most recent note I have on Robin Hood is from the 14th from Cantor.
Gotcha, gotcha.
I don't have anything more recent than that.
Microsoft. Okay, never mind.
Yeah, I stopped myself reading that headline.
This was one of the few Red Days.
I haven't seen how this Red Day compares to the last couple.
But, Amid, why don't we come over to you?
Because we don't want Amid just throwing out random names,
random stuff or whatever.
Give me a name.
Give me a sector.
Give me something that was of interest for you today
last couple days.
What are you watching?
Nothing
in particular is super
interesting, exciting. Obviously
Nvidia
next week is
the biggest thing. We got
MongoDB,
Box, all reporting next week.
So all of those should be interesting.
CrowdStrike.
But yeah, nothing crazy on my plate.
Gotcha, gotcha gotcha boring slow day
I guess when you don't have much
going up and much going on you know you have
have to just
deal with
deal with the boredom a little bit sometimes
yeah yeah for sure
next week is surprisingly like
a lot of big names we have
MongoDB on Tuesday along with Box and Okta yeah for sure next week is surprisingly like a lot of big names we have mongodb on tuesday along
with box and uh okta um and then on wednesday we have uh we have nvidia tripadvisor crowdstrike snow
hp um on thursday we have uh best buy td Ameritrade, Dell, Affirm, Alta.
There's a lot of big names next week.
So next week should be a pretty packed week.
Let's run through some of the comments.
By the way, Max saying you guys suck at engaging with your viewers.
I will say X also makes it as hard as possible to be able to engage with you guys.
They have a live chat in a lot of other areas, but not on Spaces.
Why?
Who knows?
He has questions.
Drop in that purple pill at the bottom right of your screen, that 20.
Some stocks, topics, whatever you want us to talk about, and we'll dig into it.
UPS, FedEx, Stock Talk.
I know you're not going to have any interest in these, but transport themes are heating up a little bit. I don't know. UPS, FedEx, Stock Talk. I know you're not going to have any interest in these,
but transport themes are heating up a little bit.
I don't know.
UPS, you got any thoughts on the ups?
I haven't looked at those charts.
Let's see.
We're off.
Not going to see anything good on this chart,
so you maybe want to look somewhere else for a good UPS take.
Well, I mean, UPS is attempting to bottom here.
Needs to do some work, but it's attempting to recapture the 9 EMA.
Let's see FedEx.
Great PE ratio.
FedEx looks a little better.
FedEx looks a little better.
FedEx already recaptured the 50, 921.
FedEx probably going to 245 pretty quickly, or at least it'll test it.
Yeah, I mean, FedEx looks a little better, but yeah, neither of these are particularly interesting to me.
They're not my type of... I'm not a bottom fisher, so...
Not my type of names.
Another comment down below, this one from TheRickiestRick.
AppliedDigital, APLD. i've heard this name on the spaces before maybe it's like a logical shy type name shy tight night
whoa shy type name the the chart on this one looks a lot better than a lot different a lot more
beautiful than the ups one yeah i mean that's, that's a gorgeous chart. And I've traded APLD before, but yeah, it's a gorgeous chart.
I mean, all accumulation.
You know, it's basically at the highs still,
even after today's pullback, didn't give up the 9 EMA.
Yeah, that's a very strong chart.
There's nothing to dislike about that.
I might even want to get in this name.
Again. I might even want to get in this name again outside the chart
what do you love about this company
and it's like revenue growth
I haven't looked
I haven't deep dived APLD too much
to give you too much fundamental commentary
I've traded in the past but I haven't looked
too much into it. Evan just brought
it up, so I thought I'd pull up the chart.
200 mil revenue company
trading at $4 billion. It's not
cheap. It's growing at 30%.
Yeah, that's not cheap.
But clearly someone's
enthusiastic about this. I mean, there's no sellers
on this thing. It's all accumulation.
So maybe a big deal in the pipeline. I don't know. It is a nice chart. I mean, there's no sellers on this thing. It's all accumulation. So maybe a big deal in the pipeline.
I don't know.
It is a nice chart. I can't deny that.
I just don't know enough about the company to give
deeper commentary on it.
Vitamin J.
Okay, I mean, actually.
Can you say something there?
No, no, I'm good.
Vitamin J says,
Could we get Stock Talk's thoughts on leu centrist energy i know
that's one that you are covering more yeah they've done what's pulling back recently they did an uh
did an offering of convertible notes that's why the stock's been down pulling back into the 21
week ema today which is where it needs to hold um so yeah we'll see if it holds but today it came in and
tested that at the lows around 161 you'd like to see it start consolidating here above the 21 week
that's what i'm looking for it to do you'd want to see confirmation here uh for the selling to
slow down but on the daily the selling uh through the 50 day was very high volume so obviously that
is concerning and you need to see that shape back up.
But I mean, I remained in the name.
I got in at 96, so plenty of a cushion.
Obviously it's off from the highs by quite a bit, but that's normal.
There's a lot of stuff not trading at, at all time highs right now.
So yeah, I'm fine with it.
You just have to learn how to monitor structure when you're in these names and when you see pullbacks.
You have to flip through multiple timeframes,
look at the technical structure,
ask yourself if there's any breakdowns happening.
For me right now, I just see this as a significant pullback
into the 21 week, and we will see if it holds.
It's got to close above that spot into the end of the week.
All right, we got
if anyone wants to jump in
on any of these other thoughts, feel free
to jump in. We're just kind of rapid-fire around.
We got C-Mac asking about
SoundHound. Now, I cannot lie.
I'm stupid.
So, you know, it doesn't mean much coming from me.
I kind of thought SoundHound AI
was kind of like a meme name more than anything else i don't know if this is something that people watch
i feel like i saw some 13fs which actually may have included sound town or something um i was
looking at it which surprised me but is this a name that sound town or anyone watches looking
at the chart i mean if this was a level which you're kind of checking back to the highs from July 17th, July 9th.
Yeah, perfect 21 EMA retest today on that name, too.
That chart also looks very good.
I mean, again, is it a shit-go?
Yeah.
Is it a meme name?
Yeah.
I mean, it's not as much of a shit-go as Ticker AI, that's for sure.
I mean, Soundhound does have a real business, right?
They have a partnership with right um you know they have
partnership with wendy's and like multiple big companies so yeah i mean but is it trading richly
you probably had a five and a half billion market cap with with these speculative ai names so yeah
i mean it's not like a high quality company or something but i mean the chart looks good
daily chart looks good you know this is a today's a clean pullback into the 21 EMA on low volume.
So, yeah, I mean, it's another name where, you know, the fundamental story,
people probably have different opinions on that.
I don't know a ton about it fundamentally, but the chart looks good. Yeah, Golden Cross, 50 crossing the 200.
Recently, high volume buying to push this thing up from 10 to 17.
Low volume selling back into the
13 spot 21 ema that's productive you look at the weekly and monthly they look good too the weekly
actually looks gorgeous so yeah i mean a lot of charts still look good even after the momentum
selling today even after the momentum selling earlier in the week um this is another one of
those that i think it looks fine and things can change quickly. You know, one or two more negative daily candles and it won't look so good.
If it sells below 1150, then, um, it won't look good, but for now it looks fine.
All right.
We just got a second person asking about Snapchat, the bullish bear and
Kurdish Prince both asking about snapchat now this is
I mean a lot of people still use this I guess I haven't looked too deep into it
we were talking about this on a live stream today about the CEO that he may
be a little distracted what we call itvenue growth down to 8.7% year-over-year revenue growth.
Yeah, I mean, the company's barely growing,
stocks below all the moving averages on the monthly, weekly, and daily.
I mean, if you want to be a hero,
like there's some people that like to be heroes
and bottom fish in no man's land.
I mean, go for it if you love Snapchat,
but I wouldn't touch this thing with a 10-foot pole.
Everything about this is saying distribution to me. High volume selling.
Again, no real signs of price bottoming yet. I mean, maybe you could say this consolidation
at the lows on the daily is a sign of bottoming. It doesn't look like one to me. No failure to
recapture any moving averages, not even the short-term exponential moving averages, like
not even close.
This thing hasn't even touched the 90MA since that drop off.
So yeah, I would have touched Snapchat with a 10 foot pull personally.
All right.
Selfish one.
Can I chime in on this one?
Yeah.
Honestly, you can chime in on any of them, by the way.
Yeah.
All right.
So fundamentally, obviously, the company is very challenged. They're losing, they're not capturing any type of real meaningful market share at this
point.
And if we do have a little bit of a pullback when it comes to enterprise spend, and those
enterprises actually focus on obviously allocating those dollars to the companies that are going
to provide more return on investment.
You're obviously looking at Google, looking at Meta rather than Snap.
But this is one of those names where you look at, and it's not a recommendation, but this
is one of those names that you look at an options position and you go out to the April's
or the June's of next year, right?
And you look at something that's the eight dollar or the
five dollar right the eight dollar calls right now going for about a dollar forty cents right 140 bucks
because this name is trading at a key area of support and for whatever reason you know the
earnings were bad but people forget about the earnings a month later and for whatever reason people want to pick this
name up because it could be a short target right or whatever you see a little bit of a pop stock
pops at 8.50 nine dollars ten bucks or whatever this could be one of those ones that you just kind
of scout the chart doesn't look great but it obviously has defined range kind of like how
utilities used to trade uh before we kind of had the AI and the nuclear
theme where you buy those support areas, you sell the rips.
And this is kind of that chart set up for that.
So risk reward, does it look like a bad chart?
Like if you were trading stock in it, it makes it very difficult, right?
If you're looking at it for a scalp trade, this is one of those ones that you can look at the slow low priced options are relatively cheap when you go
out in time and actually the IV is a little bit more elevated near term then
it is longer term because you're buying so much time so this is one of those
ones where you could kind of you know flip an options trade on it and then
just wait until it actually does get that pop, that $8 or it goes to $10 or whatever, flip the trade and then move on.
So that's the only thing with Snapchat.
It is interesting.
The chart, once again, looks horrible.
These earnings announcements and the reactions to them, we go back to these same levels, right?
$7, $7.50 or so, trading at that level.
So this would be
more of an options position on the longer term basis, kind of a stock replacement, rather than
putting big capital up to work. I'll put some different perspective on some of these companies
that we've been watching. So Snapchat is trading at a price that is most attractive it's ever been, right?
It's a $12 billion market cap for a company generating $5.5 billion in revenues.
So that's roughly 2.2 times sales, growing at 13%, growing revenues at 13%.
And despite being attacked by Meta, by TikTok, by everyone and their mother, Snapchat continues to be the app for communication for teenagers and 20-somethings.
It's pretty incredible how well it's been able to hold on to its revenue.
I don't own any Snap, but at seven bucks a share, it actually is pretty tempting because of the valuation.
seven bucks a share, it actually is pretty tempting because of the valuation. And the company has
just shown to be an innovative company and is still founder-led, if I'm not mistaken. So
that's sort of like a different perspective than one that I think Stock Talk shared, at least.
I think Kevin is possibly a little bit more bullish on Snapchat.
I'm not bullish.
No, no.
I'm not bullish on the stock.
I'm just, you know, there are certain stocks that just catch bids, right?
And so if it's trading at $7 and it goes up to $3, it goes up to $10 or $10, $15.
Not $10, $15.
Let's say $10, $12 or so.
Usually those are aggressive moves to the upside, which raises implied volatility.
And so what I'm looking at is a risk reward of $1, whatever, $1.40.
At $8 strike, you're looking at $9.40 for your breakeven.
You get a pop to the upside.
You buy a little bit of time, right?
And then you flip it because everybody...
That's just how these stocks work.
Lucid's the same way, right?
I could care less about the fundamentals for Lucid. You guys are a lot better than that
than I am, but I know where Lucid bases and just gets completely destroyed out of nowhere,
it just seems to catch bids. And so it's one of those other stocks where it's so cheaply priced
that you could go out in time and buy something that's expiring 250 days out, 300 days out,
and just get the scout for when people do look at it. Because eventually, I'm not saying this
is guaranteed to happen, but over that timeframe, those names tend to gather at least one or two
bullish headlines that push the stock up, that squeeze shorts. And that's what you're trying
to capitalize on. You sell out and then you basically wait till it goes back to the same level and just do it again.
So I'm not bullish on the name because it does burn. I hear the top line argument that you're
talking about. But if you look at the bottom line, dude, that thing burns a hell of a lot of cash.
And I'm just not sure how much it can go to the well from the investment standpoint,
like big investors to continue to
put money into that name um so i hear the bull i'm not like saying i'm bearish on it but it does have
to figure out how to monetize it because you have all the eyeballs that you want but if you can't
monetize it and size it correctly then it's still kind of a problem. I'm just kind of looking at it tactically, in my opinion.
I hear you.
And then on SoundHound,
where I think the charts are shown to be bullish based on what StockTalk was talking about.
I never looked at charts, by the way, or moving averages.
So to me, those things are completely meaningless.
But looking at the valuation,
5.4 billion for $130 million revenue business is just incredibly expensive.
Price-sales ratio, 46.
For a company that probably doesn't have any significant moat, a lot of their growth is coming from acquisitions, essentially.
So a company is still not profitable,
trading at really high valuation.
So that would be my perspective on SoundHound.
Like some of these companies,
like when the stock goes down,
I wanna be more excited about it, not less excited, right?
I wanna buy more of it as opposed to less of it.
So just, you know, I get a balanced stock talk out
every now and then.
So just putting that out there.
Yeah, I hear you.
I don't want people to mistake what I'm saying either.
I'm not long any of these names.
I'm just responding to Evan's questions about the charts.
So that's pretty much it.
I don't have a position in any of those names.
Yeah, I'll even go back to UPS.
So UPS, the chart, doesn't look great.
It is hitting an area of support at around this $85 level if you kind of go back in time. It's trading at what, $4, $4.50 priced to tangible book. So you start to also kind of question the valuation of this company just in general. short interest on this on off book or exchange float, right? Not the total float, but exchange
float, which means that any type of really good news on this name will squeeze those institutions
and they'll have to actually aggressively cover. It's not like retail is like super shorting this
thing. Now, could there be some further downside? There could. I mean, they do have some headwinds
when it comes to the labor front, but from a technical standpoint, if you're looking at the next, let's say, especially the next, let's say, four months.
What are we in?
August right now, right?
So I would say next five months.
This would be actually a seasonal play if you bring up a seasonal chart.
The holiday period usually is where the UPS catches
a bid, FDX, Amazon catches bids. So once again, I mean, it's catching a falling knife. This
would be, once again, an options play. I mainly just trade options. I don't really trade equities
at all outside of my 401k. But you have a support, the area of resistance back in the past. I mean,
we're talking about literally 2006, $84. That was an area of resistance back in the past. I mean, we're talking about literally 2006,
$84. That was an area of resistance flipped to an area of support back in 2020, March of 2020.
You're hitting that area of support right now. Technically, I would not be surprised if buyers
kind of step in on this name. And if you look at the volume candles right now, you can also make
the case that this could be a little bit of
capitulation volume candles that have actually been taking place basically since the last week
in July, right? Where you are seeing price stabilize, volume still elevated. That means
that we are seeing a changing of hands and it could be a directional shift that takes place.
Now, you could wait for the confirmation uh definitely but if you're scalping
this name uh once again you go out and you say four months from now you're going to start hearing
a lot of holiday data what have you let's say you get a china trade deal they do have exposure
in china and overseas uh this could be one of those ones that kind of re-rates a little bit
higher and once again you can. That's not a recommendation.
But technically speaking, you can make the case that $85 is a key area of support.
And even if it does continue to fail, it's at, what, $87 right now.
You look at a 50% retracement from $103 to $87.
That is, what, 13?
So you look at another $ bucks to the upside right now. So you're looking at 95,
$96 as a potential area of resistance on the retracement.
Once again,
options play.
That's kind of a scout.
That's a scout play.
You just go out and look,
give yourself a little bit of time for it to,
to marinate.
And if not,
you know,
options are risk defined as well.
You don't put the whole bank on it.
This is one of those.
It could actually work out just based on the technicals.
You know, I look at ADM like that.
I talked about that stock a couple of months ago.
Not a recommendation, but it looked horrible, right?
It was trading at like $40 a share.
It had bad news.
It had this, that, and the other.
Now look at the stock, right?
It's just sometimes the valuations get a little bit outsized
or they trade at a little bit of a discount.
And you start talking about tangible book value,
price the book value of four bucks for this name,
that's kind of towards the low end of the range
that we've seen over the last 15 years or so.
So a little optimism there.
That's just something about UPS, a little bit more of a tactical breakdown.
I know it's swinging.
Thank you, Kevin.
I appreciate you there.
I want to keep going here. This is actually enjoyable.
We've got another one from Martin.
Martin is always in the spaces, always commenting stuff.
So whenever I see Martin's comment, I'm going to go to it first.
He asked about the VKTX sell-off today, Vikings Therapeutics.
Viking Therapeutics.
Got slapped today.
Had some news on their oral GLP-1 drug their oral weight loss drug that had
some clinical trials that didn't go as pen i think it was the side effects were stronger than expected
and were causing people to drop out of the trial uh but viking therapeutic stock was down 40
today in general eli lily novo nordis this This theme has had some quite large moves
recently, and not a lot of them
positive. Novo Nordis may now bounce back
a little, but stock
talk, and I want to hear everyone else's thoughts.
This GLP-1 theme, and I don't know if you
looked at VKTX today at all, down 42%.
Kind of hard to do TA
on, I mean, I guess what levels we're watching?
21. Do you want to
break below that? What's this level here? 25? I mean, we're what levels are watching? 21. Do you want to break below that?
What's this level here?
I mean, we're at a big level here.
Yeah, I mean, I haven't followed the VKTX story too closely, so I won't give you commentary on the fundamentals or the data or anything
because I don't want to provide useless information on that topic.
But on the chart, yeah, I mean, obviously it looks brutal.
It looked great going into today, actually.
And that just goes to show what one daily candle can do.
We were above all the moving averages yesterday,
and now we're below all of them.
So that's not a good candle.
It found no support on the daily at all.
It just blew through all the levels.
I don't know. I know there's some people that really like this name and maybe there's a good risk ward for bounce here i mean we're into the 200 week the selling is right into the 200 week
today so maybe that's a good risk ward i mean the last three times it tested that level it
bounced pretty nicely so maybe you see that again but but I mean, you know,
weekly looks better than the daily monthly looks a little bit better than the
weekly. So, I mean, you know,
it tends to happen when you have those big sell-offs you have to scroll to the
higher timeframes to find areas of support. But I mean,
the lows from April on this thing were like 19 bucks.
You know, maybe it comes back down there.
Maybe you find support here the 200, who knows, but yeah, not a name that I'm personally interested
in longing. You know, again, my perspective is different than some of the other traders in the
audience, because, you know, like Kevin mentioned earlier, there are probably scalps and trades to
be made on some of these that, um, you know, if you're a good trader, you can make them.
I don't like to do that. I like to buy positions that I can hold for months or in many cases,
years and sort of trade around them as like portfolio positions. And so for me, I just can't touch broken charts because it requires too much guesswork for me to build into the position
and to trim around the position.
So I like charts that have structure that's easily readable, you know, charts that like
respect their moving averages, respect their view ops, you know, trade cleanly.
I like names like that because it makes it easier to manage.
It does mean that I miss out on some names that don't trade cleanly, but I'm okay with that.
You know, there are, there are plenty of stocks in the market there are plenty of places to make money
you know there's you know different strokes for different folks I tend to be a guy that looks for
strength as opposed to like bottom fishing opportunities and it works well for me so I
kind of stick to that but yeah VKTX not something i'm interested in although i do see a lot of people on twitter today saying they were buying the dip including jeffries who isn't on twitter
but i saw their note this morning they said it was an overreaction raymond james said the same
thing raymond james a note actually came out about an hour before close they reiterated 122
price target on it stocks obviously like 40 bucks So that's implying quite a bit of upside
from Ray J. But Ray J basically saying that it was an overreaction. The investor readout was
more focused on the discontinuation rates and the GI related adverse events. And Raymond James said
that that's the wrong place to be focused because they think it's important to note that um slower titration could
reduce both those factors and jeffrey said a very very similar thing as did truest so there were a
lot of people on the street standing by this name today even after the sell-off with you know truest
at 125 target btig at 125 125, Raymond James at 122.
Then you have people like Citi who lowered their price target to 29.
So you have a mix of opinions on the street.
Morgan Stanley liked it as well.
They reiterated a 98 target.
So yeah, you have a little bit of a difference of opinion on the street around that name.
You have some guys who think it's going 3x from here, and you have some guys who think it's going to get cut in half from here.
So it depends on who you believe.
I know there's people out there that have done their work on that.
If you've done your work on it and you have high confidence, then maybe that's an incredible opportunity for you to buy it at the 200-week year.
If you're somebody that doesn't know the story and you're just like following people on Twitter and just buying it randomly, you probably
shouldn't do that. So yeah, it just
depends on how
well you know it.
Kevin, Hamid,
you got any thoughts on that one you want to run?
Yeah, I mean like this is kind of like
this is biopharma, right? You know, this is
the stuff that happens.
Once again, I'm not an expert in this. Sounds like it was a nausea, you know, situation which can be fixed. The problem that you have potentially could be fixed, right? The problem that you have is going to set them back probably another year, year and a half when it comes to, you know, getting a new trial to fix this or remedy this matter.
So are you optimistic that the tangible,
addressable market is going to be there for them a year and a half from now?
Right.
That's a big question if you're an investor in this name.
Could they be a takeout target? Is their technology and composition of this drug really unique?
Sounds like there's some other players within this space.
So probably not.
That being the case, we're talking about it from a trade standpoint,
not a recommendation, but this is once again one of those ones
if you are bullish on it, you go out of time.
Once again, you're talking about a year for a trial to potentially be completed, maybe a year and a half.
So they do have 2027 jams going out there.
If that's your jam, you sell near-dated calls against that as well.
Doing calendar spreads, right?
Buying long-dated call options, selling your dated premium against it
probably would be a diagonal though,
not a calendar,
which would have the same strike diagonal.
You give yourself a little bit of upside potential.
So let's say that you get the 25
and you start selling the 30s against it, right?
Because the high IV for this name,
at least for right now,
if it remains like that,
well, not like this,
but if it remains still fairly elevated in the trader trading type of stock, that's where you
can kind of reduce that long premium on that long call if you're optimistic on the name and you
wanted to have, once again, a stock replacement type of strategy that is on there. You could also
look at selling puts against this as well with
high IV. If there's a particular strike level that you're willing to buy the stock in, you can pick
that strike. Let's say it's $15. Let's say it's $20, whatever. You have to determine that yourself.
You sell the put, put up the cash in order to hold the position that goes out of the money at the
time of expiration. You keep the cash. If it goes in the money, you got to buy the stock and or do something with that put option. That's also something that's
a viable option as well. And if you think it's a takeout target, then there's a little bit of
a different structure you put there too. So I'm not a fan of biopharma when it comes to actually
putting it as a stock holding, especially for names that kind of just come up
or are centralized in just one area or word segment.
That's not well known and that does not have a long track record.
It makes it a little bit difficult.
But, you know, do you.
I would not probably trade on the technicals on this name, though,
because a lot of this premium is on the enthusiasm of this drug
where they're kind of working out.
And so once again, they're going to be knocked back about a year or so where their competitors are going to be able to once again kind of capitalize.
And by that time, the market might be too saturated, you know, like at some point in time.
And we always have to remember this regardless of any industry.
We're talking about pharmaceuticals, especially in this type of manner, right?
It's a little bit different than if you're talking about like a Gilead Sciences like 10 years ago, 15 years ago, actually,
where they just had like the market cornered when it came to like HIV drugs and stuff like that, where no one was even close to them.
So they deserved a very large premium in the market until their patent pretty much ran off
and then it became a generic. And then that's why the stock hasn't really done anything since.
You know, a one year can be a very long time for a market that's already been kind of saturated
with the HEMS product offerings that are being introduced, Lilly and Govy and what have you.
But, you know, this is a tough trade, right?
These are, when you're looking at biopharma,
you can make a lot of money,
you can lose a lot of money fairly quickly
just because of stuff like this.
So if you're looking at the long,
probably going outdated and doing diagonals
would be the VA opportunity for you.
That's not a recommendation
sorry i'm trying to get back from the unmute there appreciate the thoughts
the unmute there.
Appreciate the thoughts.
Let's go in.
Ooh,
Zeta.
You guys,
this has become a Finput favorite.
Maybe a meme stock.
Some could call a Zeta one you've looked into before.
Talk talk.
And then the meat,
I want to ask you that one as well.
I have not.
I have not.
I mean,
is that one you looked into?
No, I, I also haven't
gotcha gotcha
no worries on that one sorry for
for that
I'm curious
on TTD if that one is one that you
looked into me maybe first is TTD
one that's caught your radar before
that trade does Is one that you've looked into, Amid, maybe first? Is TTD one that's caught your radar before?
Is that Trade Desk?
Yeah.
Not in the advertising space at all.
So I have looked at it a long time ago, but not my wheelhouse. I mean, I can comment a little bit if you want. I mean, look, this is a company that's
obviously seeing the overall industry change and it's really slow and adapting, which is why we're
why we're seeing the erratic behavior when it comes to the price action and their earnings as well.
seeing the erratic behavior when it comes to the price action and their earnings as well.
If you kind of look at the past for the stock, you kind of wait, let this thing kind of
consolidate for about a month, month and a half before putting some dollars to work. Now,
that being said, I do want to also preface it by saying that there has been some very bullish
options flow on this name over the last two trainings today, as well as yesterday.
Now, today, obviously, the stock has been down, but there have been buyers of calls on this name
pretty much going out to next year. So I think somebody is probably obviously playing for a
little bit of a bounce, but you got to let this stock kind of cool off, let the news flow kind of
leave it. And then once again, that's
probably where you see some buyers kind of stepping in. You start to question if this could be also a
takeout target at some point if it's not able to kind of turn the ship around. But this one can be
a mover. And I'm talking about long dated options a lot today. But if you kind of go out in the next
six months or so, you can make, once again, a reasonable trade today but if you kind of go out in the next six months or so uh you can make
once again a reasonable uh trade structure here if you were if you were bullish on the name so
it's fundamentally it's one of those stocks now it has to prove itself post earnings it probably
wouldn't trade it going into earnings like holding it through earnings personally right but you could
actually see this maybe outperform a little
bit leading up to the earnings and then closing out the position. But I would let this one kind
of marinate a bit. There is some structure here. This is trading at the volume weighted average
price, the VWAP price. Last time I checked, which was like yesterday, it's been trading at its
VWAP for the year
on a one-year daily chart. If it does kind of squeeze back a little bit lower and gets down
to that 45, maybe some buyers kind of step in. But I would probably let this one kind of cool it
just a tad bit, let the dust settle. Sometimes there's stocks that just do better when they're
not in the limelight. That's basically what I'm saying, right?
There's stocks that you look at and then you might not look at it for like two months,
three months.
Next thing you know, you look over and this thing is completely killing the game, right?
GE Vintanova is like one of those stocks.
Even GE is like one of those stocks.
And there's a couple of stocks that are like that, where it's just better that it's not
in the headlines.
And that's probably where you get, you know, some buyers to really try to step in right
now.
We probably still want to let the dust settle in the earnings.
Appreciate you, Kevin.
All right, Stock Talk.
We also got a question here that was...
What was this one?
Well, here's just a comment in general.
Stock said, I'm taking this pullback as an opportunity to pull my weeds,
selling off my weaker positions, and looking to add my flowers
to take positions in stock showing relative strength.
Interesting.
Yes, let's go in. And an average Joe is someone I want to go to. Any core holding Stock Talk
Weekly would be looking to add to one
a more significant pullback.
I get that question a lot
and I always give a
disappointing answer because the
short answer is that it depends.
Like,
I don't, when I have a stock that I love and it's down 5%,
I don't just buy the dip. I'm not just like, Oh, the stock's down and I like it. I'm going to buy
it. Like, you know, that's how you run out of capital quickly. Um, I, I, I wait for material
pullbacks on the monthly charts when I am going to look at adding to my longer term
positions. I don't buy daily pullbacks on my core positions because you can generally get a better
opportunity. Once you are under the understanding that markets do pull back regularly, that the
broader markets correct for any given number of reasons on a
regular basis, right? And even if you've only been in the markets since COVID, which a lot of people
in the audience, you know, started during COVID, even if you've only been in for the last five
years, you've seen that already, right? You've seen 2022, you've seen earlier this year, you've
seen last year's, you know, 10% pullbacks, we had multiple of them. And you see what happens to stocks during those pullbacks.
Even the best names, even the market-leading names sell off, right?
You look what happened in April, you know, Robinhood was at $30, right?
So everything pulls back eventually.
There's no stocks that just never pull back.
It's not a thing.
I mean, even the best, strongest stocks with the best volume
profiles, the best technical structure, even they pull back when the market's correct.
So once you've understood that and acknowledged that and said, okay, this is a reality,
then it makes you less overzealous, I should say, to add every single red instance, right? And some people feel like
they have to do that in order to build a position. They're like, oh, I really own the stock. It's
down 6% today on some bad news. I'm going to buy some. And in a raging bull market,
that works well. But when markets consolidate, that may not work well. And you may see the stock
go much lower and see much better adding opportunities. And I think that's where the value of monitoring charts comes in. I don't look at charts and try
to predict things. I look at charts to try to find areas of stoppage in either direction,
whether that's stoppage to the downside, aka support, or that's stoppage to the upside,
aka resistance. That's really what I'm looking for i'm not looking for like oh this chart looks great so i'm gonna buy it without looking into
the company i generally have context on mostly everything i own and i have some sort of thesis
outside of the chart but the charts help me manage the positions and so when it comes to those core
positions the answer is it depends if there's no monthly breakdowns on a core position that i have
and most of my core positions are weighted at over 7% of my portfolio, so they're big positions for me.
If there's no monthly pullbacks or no monthly breakdowns, I may not add to that core position.
I may just ride what I have on the way up.
But on the other hand, if there's a core position that does break down during a broader market pullback and nothing's changed about the story and nothing's changed about my thesis,
then I would add that.
So it's hard to answer that question preemptively
is the point I'm trying to make.
Like whoever asked that question in the audience,
I can't answer that question
because yes, there's core positions that I would add to,
but they're not at the prices I would add to them yet.
So we'll see.
They may or may not get to those prices during a pullback.
Some of them may hold up better than others, but that's how I make those decisions. I sort of make
those decisions on the fly. It's not something I plan. I don't write in my journal, okay, I'm going
to add to Kratos at this level. What I might do is say, hey, if Kratos were to fall to this level during a pullback, then I will add more.
I might do that occasionally.
But, yeah, I don't have like a list of core positions that I'm like waiting to add to.
It just depends on how the structure changes over the course of the next few months, you know,
and if there's opportunities that present themselves.
But, yeah, I never have a good, great answer to that question, even though I get asked that question a lot,
because the short answer is it
depends.
That is fair. Definitely don't have the crystal ball.
Definitely don't know the reasoning for a lot of this stuff,
why they end up going down.
And we've had a lot of reasons for the market to go down,
whatever it was, and it hasn't happened yet.
So maybe it's just an exhaustion theme it's
what's actually going to do it but i am curious to see what's going to push us down speculation
compresses and expands for various reasons right and when it compresses multiples compress with it
and when it expands multiples expand with it right and when the latter is happening, we're generally in a bull market.
And when the former is happening, we're generally in some sort of correction or sometimes even in a bear market.
So that's really the way I think of it.
A lot of the names that I own have some sort of speculative premium attached to them.
Some sort of product they're working on or some sort of moat they may or may not have or some sort of strategic advantage they might have, that fosters a level of premium that the
stock trades on. And that premium can disappear very quickly when the market's attitudes change
towards momentum or when momentum slows in the markets or when leaders are getting sold,
those, you know, those multiple expansions can become multiple compressions very quickly
in a matter of days. Sometimes, you know, you look back in February, the market action,
late February. I mean, there are market leading stocks that fell 30 to 40 percent in a week,
I mean, there are market leading stocks that fell 30 to 40 percent in a week, in a week, you know, not in like months, but in a week.
And that's can be scary if you're not if you don't know what's going on in the markets or don't know what to expect.
That can be scary, especially for new traders and investors.
But people should be prepared for that to happen.
You know, if the markets do pull back and whenever they do pull back, you should be prepared for babies to be thrown out with the bathwater and your ability to
distinguish opportunity in those moments and to capture alpha in those moments is your ability
to distinguish what shouldn't be sold, right? Like your ability to identify those babies that
are being thrown out with the bathwater is where the alpha is. Right. And that's hard to do if you
don't know what you own or you don't know what you're looking at or you haven't done the research. You know, I there's a lot of stocks
Evan asked me about that you guys hear on these shows where I go, I don't have an opinion because
I don't. There's a lot of stocks that I don't know anything about, you know, when it comes to like
the oil and gas stocks, like don't ask me because I don't know. You know, when it comes to the,
you know, the health care stocks, don't ask me because I don't know. You know, I'm not talking to Evan not to ask me.
I'm saying, like, I don't have enough detail on those positions to give commentary.
On the other hand, when it comes to the sports betting stocks or the nuclear stocks or the data center stocks, I do have a lot of knowledge because I've spent hours and hours and hours researching those names.
those names. So I feel more comfortable buying dips on those names. I feel more comfortable,
So I feel more comfortable buying dips on those names.
you know, uh, leaning into my confirmation bias with those names because I understand them well
and the names I don't understand. Well, I don't, I don't feel confident. I don't feel confident
buying dips. I don't feel confident holding through pullbacks on those names. And so I
treat them differently. Like my position management is a product of my conviction level and my conviction level is a product of my preparation. And so if I'm not prepared that I'm not convicted and I won't manage the position well, it's pretty straightforward.
I tend to manage positions very well.
And so, you know, there are times in the markets where, look, I'm not a perfect trader either.
I make mistakes.
I had a bunch of positions that were read today, as most people probably did.
But when markets are euphoric and there's a lot of momentum, myself, like a lot of other people, get drawn into lower conviction positions.
Because, you know, you feel like there's a lot of opportunity
at a given time and there might be stocks that don't check all of your boxes but they check a
handful of them and you feel compelled to get long on those names and maybe you don't understand them
well enough and then when they start to pull back you don't have the conviction to manage them well
and then you end up cutting them at the lows and then they rebound like it just sets you up for bad management and
I try to avoid that so I'm not perfect there are names sometimes I buy that I probably shouldn't
buy that I don't understand well enough but I try to avoid that to the best of my ability and try to
stick with the names that I do understand and that's really the best you can do I think if
you're an individual stock trader in markets like this like I am and some of you out there aren't
individual stock traders some of your index focused or whatever the case may be
you probably need to do a little bit less work in a scenario like that but uh you still need to know
what you own so yeah what's up y'all there you go what is stock talk i have been looking at g and i to be honest a good amount
and everything kind of got slaughtered today it wasn't terrible it's like two and a half percent
on g and i am a bit of a flat week but the year looks really good and you know ramping up in nfl
season as that's getting started that does get me excited i actually wanted to ask one other thought
um for the panel i saw today evan maybe you can confirm
that robin had added uh the markets for nfl and college uh football games that those are going to
be on there i feel like that could uh that could be a huge source of you know volume running through
there and then people you know taking that money maybe putting it into stocks and other items too
so i thought that those were like a couple just interesting points for both hood
and gni as we run into nfl season yeah yeah i got a lot of people asking me about that today
about genius they were like oh hey do you think this sports betting trend in betting markets is
like bad for genius and i was like no they still need the data you know they still need the data
like to verify those bets,
verify the outcomes of those results.
That all comes from Genius, right?
Like, they're an exclusive provider.
The NFL is completely hands-off when it comes to data.
Like, you look at, like, when you see those next-gen stats
on all Red Zone and NFL Network,
those are all in-house provided by Genius.
And now you look at, like, what they're doing in European football stadiums, football as in soccer for the Americans.
They are putting in these data-gathering cameras in the stadiums that can track all sorts of sports-related data.
So they're doing a lot. That's fantastic. And I, you know, I think the expansion of sports betting to the, to the betting markets, to Polymarket and Kalshi is,
I mean, it's just another layer for Genius to exploit. And now you have their partnership with
PKG, which is Nike's, um, advertising agency. Um, you know, you're looking at specialized
marketing and advertising to sports fans now through their data as well. So yeah, I mean like the story i haven't sold any of it you know i've been long since 960
stocks like 13 now i haven't sold any so that kind of tells you where my conviction level is
on that name but i don't think that there's a lot that's bad about that story recently it's
been nothing but positive catalyst for them so yeah um i think it's cool that sports betting
is coming to those betting markets but i don't think it's cool that sports betting is coming to those
betting markets but i don't think it's bearish for genie and at all it might be bearish for some of
the regional sports books if it starts affecting volume but um i don't know if we've seen that yet
speaking of uh you know former spacks do you think chamath coming back and launching a spec
is a signal of the top? Could be.
Could be.
We were talking about this earlier.
I'm not a Chamath fan, so I don't know.
I know he needs a big Chamath fan.
He's not even sure.
Yeah, he must love him.
Neither of us like him very much.
But, yeah, it could be.
It could be another anecdotal stop.
I mean, there's been a lot of anecdotes.
It's tough to say, you know, when we talk about, like, froth,
for me, it's really tough to, like like string together anecdotes and say stuff's frothy
like i mean most of the five years last five years i mean at the peak of these bull markets
has been pretty frothy you've had a lot of names trading at pretty crazy valuations doesn't mean
it's the top i mean that's so tough to you know, because froth can get removed from these names very quickly.
When you have like, you know, a $12 billion market cap that's zero revenue, those names can get flushed by 30, 40 percent of earnings.
Then the froth is gone pretty quickly, you know.
But so I think it's tough.
It's tough to manage froth and look back and say, these are the anecdotes that signal a top.
But I mean, yeah, there are some anecdotes out there.
Chamath launching a SPAC, you know, AI hype at crazy highs, open AI at a $500 billion valuation.
You know, Palantir, a $400 billion valuation.
Are these signs of a top?
They could be.
They could be.
It's just hard to say.
You know, you look at ETH rocks, Ethereum rocks, or whatever the hell they're called.
Those are selling for $300, $400, $500K a pop now again.
You know, that was happening in late 21 when we headed into the 22 bear market.
So could it be?
Yeah.
But I have to see the indexes break down first.
That's just kind of my,
the way I look at things.
I have to see real breakdown of the indexes and we got a 90 MA forfeit on
spy today.
So maybe it's the beginning of something bigger,
but you know,
the 21 EMA is down at six 35 on spy.
If we can hold that,
then,
you know,
maybe you look fine.
Keep in mind, we lost the 21 back at the beginning of August on very high volume selling.
And, you know, recovered it immediately the next day.
So I have to see this market prove to me that it's ready to unwind before I get ahead of that.
So that's kind of where I am right now.
But yes, there are a lot of anecdotal signals of froth that do make you sort of scratch your head and say, you know, is this just getting too ridiculous?
And in certain areas it is, but, you know, in other areas, I don't think it's as bad as people are painting it to be.
So we'll see.
It's really, really tough to call tops in markets based on anecdotes, I think, for anyone.
You know, no matter how smart or experienced you are it's tough to do
that yeah we have to be mindful to like seasonally August not a great month to
trade in general right in September is kind of even worse we have some
economic data that's coming up vol should be going up and you know maybe
it's starting to catch a bit but still only's still only at like 15, 15 and a half VIX.
So there is some froth in this market for sure.
The price action hasn't been great in some respects,
but we also have to be mindful that we are setting,
we're prepping ourselves for potentially a small pullback
and then potentially end of the year rally.
And that's just how it is.
So I don't know.
I mean, we've broken some key technical structure. If you're just looking at potential trend lines,
we did have this kind of wedge pattern fail out,
but it failed out on consolidation.
It didn't fail because of a breakdown in price action per se.
Now, obviously today we saw
some some breakage but still above the 20 day even if we go back down to say the 50 day i don't think
all is like lost so i just days like today especially after a week of only trading in a
what 0.2 percent 0.25 percent range on the S&P 500.
I would say it has to prove it first before getting like too bearish.
And some things did pull back aggressively,
like that Palantir move,
it pulled back aggressively, right?
But every time that we've had these rebalances
or these rotational type of trades
out of tech communication services
into the underlying value sectors, they don't last that long. these rebalances or these rotational type of trades out of tech communication services into
the underlying value sectors, they don't last that long, maybe two days, maybe three days. Now,
some of the stocks are still doing a phenomenal job, right? But the rotations usually don't last.
So if you go with the trend, the trend says it's rotating now, but it could be potentially
balanced opportunities in the future to be mindful of here so i
would just say like there's a lot that's on the calendar right now seasonally this is not the
greatest to trade in september especially like september post op x third week of september
third friday post op x like that following week is usually really tough and then that's what we
gear up for,
for the end of the year, rather. So I would just, you know, brace for it and look for opportunities
and maybe some of these value areas. And if you have a longer term portfolio in certain stocks
that you love, did pull back aggressively for whatever reason, as long as the theme hasn't
truly broken itself, then they might be opportunities. I can say for me, that meta story,
then they might be opportunities.
I could say for me, that meta story,
because I know what the FT story, if I'm not mistaken,
that meta story is not like a huge concern.
It's, I mean, any business that kind of breaks up a unit
and finds synergies is going to lay off people, right?
It doesn't mean that AI is like falling off a cliff yet uh
it just seems like it's kind of a smart business move now the big risk that you have with ai is
once it's truly commoditized then we will have a problem like when the data center aspect is the
commodity because that will happen uh where we basically build out way too much because at the
end of the day it's not about once we have the
data we crunch a model and you have the model built out right you don't need to crunch that
data again and I think people are like kind of forgetting that like Google doesn't have to build
out an overall data center from the ground up to crunch all of the data in the world and then
continue to crunch all that data in the world right they already have a model that's built out
they build on top of that model and then they will sell that that data in the world, right? They already have a model that's built out. They build on top of that model.
And then they will sell that model to other enterprises
for them to be able to build out and customize it for their own data suite.
So right now, we're kind of still at the build out phase.
But at some point, it's going to commoditize itself,
which we are already seeing when it comes to the inference rates
and things of that nature, right?
And then that's where the AI theme kind of changes.
Well, yeah potentially potentially especially especially if you have the productivity gains that the that the
markets expect i don't think we're gonna get like we're gonna have productivity gains for sure it
kind of depends on your time horizon but let's say like we're two years out like you know i don't
think overall business units are going to be fully automated on AI without significant supervision, because I feel like that would just be a massive risk item.
But if you get the productivity gains, then yeah, right? I mean, that's when it will,
it'll be a problem, right? But I think there's some aspect of this AI thing where everybody's
like, oh, well where everybody's like oh well
everybody's gonna have these massive data centers to crunch this no right like once i get a model
i build on top of that model it's just a race to the bottom basically and i don't mean this from
a price standpoint i mean this from a compute standpoint it's a race to the bottom between
the hyperscalers right now and whoever is is able to build out that best model that can be, that you don't also have to rely on huge infrastructure in order to build out, which will also happen.
We're always talking about hardware, but software efficiencies is so underloved and so underappreciated when it comes to technology.
It's kind of ridiculous.
And that's one of the hardest things to see on the horizon.
So that's my thing.
Okay, good.
Sorry, real quick.
I see Paul down there from Leverage Shares.
If you're able to request up on stage,
I know we had a chat starting a few minutes ago.
Just been working to get you on stage.
Really good content here from Kevin
in the meantime that we've been going with.
And I didn't even want to fully stop you there.
I just wanted to shout out to Paul.
If you're able to request on stage,
we'll get you up here and move into that conversation.
But sorry to cut you off there, Kevin, if you had any other thoughts.
No, that's just like, no, that's just where I'm at.
Like right now, we're still in the build-out phase.
I don't think the trend is, I don't think the theme has changed yet.
And once it's fully commoditized, that's when it becomes a little bit difficult, right?
And, you know, that's just how it is.
I wouldn't get too concerned about today's pullback yet, right?
You start breaking 6200 and the S&P 500,
get a little bit more concerned.
6200 is your key, key area that we need to be able to hold before we start making,
because we already have made a higher high,
but if we start making, you know,
lower lows in the sequence, that's when you're concerned.
So I'll kick it to you.
I appreciate you guys having me on.
Love it.
Appreciate that.
Paul, we got you up here now?
Yeah, no, I'm here.
I've been here.
I was on my personal account, and I realized you guys didn't recognize me.
So then I switched over to the Leverage Shares account.
How are you?
All good.
All good.
I'll take care of that for Thursday.
But I'm doing well.
I appreciate you coming up.
It's been a very interesting day in this stock market.
It has certainly been one of the days where you may not want to have double leverage to
the downside, if you know what I'm saying.
Yeah, we deal with that a lot.
I mean, you know, these days are kind of necessary.
I heard a little bit about the discussion that you guys were talking about.
And, you know, somebody mentioned August. You know. For August, it's been a really good August. And it makes sense
that some people are taking a little bit off the table. Generally speaking, August is usually like
a down month if you look over the averages. But we've had a pretty robust August, and I think people
are taking some profits across lots of different sectors, not just technology, but European
defense. We've seen that happen and some other areas as well. But I think that sets us up for a
good September when everybody's back and the markets are trading with a lot more volume and people are getting back
at their desks. So it doesn't surprise me at all. Again, I think I've said this. It would be
inconsistent if I said that I was worried. I'm not really worried. I think we're going to have
a strong end to the year. I know a couple people just spoke a little bit about the Fed. Either way,
it doesn't really matter. The economy is doing
pretty well. And if the Fed doesn't respond by lowering rates, I think we'll be fine.
If the Fed lowers rates responsibly, which is what I think they're going to do, I don't think
they're going to make any huge moves. But if they lower rates responsibly, maybe like 25 basis
points or something like that at the next meeting, I think you see markets start to get excited.
And I think we have a good comeback starting in September, you know, when that meeting happens.
For sure.
Yeah, right now, FedWatch gives it about an 85% chance that they're going to cut by 25 basis points.
Polly Market gives it like a 73% chance.
So both leaning towards a yes.
I did want to talk for a second here
and I want to get Stock Talk and other thoughts
that are up here, maybe even Hamid.
Thoughts on these cap accelerated ETFs
now that they've had a few days to get out here and trade.
So I talked about this on a space
that I did with leverage shares last week,
but it wasn't here on Stocks on Sp basis. So I wanted to talk about it here. And they introduced a new type of ETF. I hadn't seen
this type of ETF before. I'm pretty sure they're the first to bring it to the table. And these are
cap accelerated ETFs. And they're using an internal option strategy inside of the ETF wrapper
that allows people to get 2x exposure to the upside up to a certain cap on single stock while maintaining
basically single exposure to the downside so you know if tesla goes up let's say uh five percent
ideally this is going up ten percent if tesla goes down five percent it's just going down that five
percent now how do you obtain this well you're going to have a cap it's just going down 5%. Now, how do you obtain this? Well, you're going to have a cap.
It's not going to be double leverage the upside forever.
And you can check on their website on the LeverageJars website.
So it's definitely probably one of the more complex ETFs that I think we've seen in this
area.
And I just wanted to kind of dig in with those that were here on stage, because I'm curious,
people like StockTalk, maybe StockTalk, you've run option strategies in the past, where you're selling certain strikes, you're buying certain strikes, and you're creating this.
But it's cool to see it being just, you know, done for retail now at this point in a way that I haven't seen before.
So obviously, you know, I've loved working together with you, Paul.
I appreciate you coming on the space.
And I know we're going to dig in more with one of the actual PMs on Thursday.
But for now, maybe you could just give some insights as to,
you know, initially what you're seeing from traders is like feedback and pieces like that.
And why you think that this is a good product to put inside the ETF wrapper?
Yeah, well, first, let me start by saying, we love working with you guys, too. The second thing
that I bring up is, why do we think these would be attractive?
And I think it's very simple.
Like a lot of people who trade two times leverage don't understand the risks or the daily reset.
And if you're not a trader
and you're using these products,
a lot of times you're wondering
how they operate during the day,
why they don't go percentage for percentage points
during the day,
or what the
daily reset could do if you're not trading actively in these strategies. And so they've
come to us and we've gotten feedback saying, we definitely want to use leverage, but we want some
kind of downside protection. So essentially, that's what we built these to offer. The ability to get
amplified returns on the upside. But again, these aren't for people who are looking to take maximum
risk, both up and down. They want some protection on the downside. Anybody who knows options knows
that if you're buying protection, it's going to cost you a little bit to the upside, right? There's always some kind of cap to the upside
if you're buying protection on the downside. So that's essentially what we're doing. Think of it
as a structured note inside of an ETF wrapper. And what we're getting right now is a lot of
interest and a lot of questions. And so that's there would be um we that we'd have to educate
our investors on actually how they work how they traded and we launched them during the middle of
the month so they didn't have the full monthly cap that you might see at um at the end of this month
and it's coming up so the way that they operate is you know we set the cap on the last business
day of the month so that'll be august 29th for us. Volatility is our friend, especially in some of these, uh, you know,
um, heavily traded names, high volume names, because the more volatility we see better pricing
we get and the chances for higher cap rates. Um, when we set, when we reset them on the last
business day of the month, That cap lasts for a month.
So if you want to get the maximum return potential on that cap,
you get into it on the first day of the month,
and you'll see what that cap is.
And the way that they operate is, based on what the cap rate is,
let's just make it an even 20% for right now.
If the stock returns 5, you have the opportunity to get 10.
If the stock returns 10, you have the opportunity to get 20.
If the stock returns 15, you still have the opportunity to get 20.
It's only if the stock returns more than 20% will you start to lose a little bit of return. But for that protection, for that cap,
even though you're getting accelerated returns up to that cap,
you're only getting one time the downside.
So let's just say the trade doesn't work for you.
And let's say that position is down,
that underlying stock,
let's say it's either Tesla or Nvidia
or Strategy or Palantir or Coinbase,
which is what we offer.
If that stock is down, say 5%, you'll
only lose 5%. But what you're getting on the opposite side is that possibility for the return.
At the end of the next month, the last business day, that cap will reset. You can either roll
into the new cap or you can trade out of it. And by the way, just so you know, you could also trade during the middle of the month.
And you can go to our website.
You could scroll over a chart that will tell you what the monthly cap rate is.
And depending upon the day when you're getting in, what the remaining cap will be for that month, that target cap from the day that you're entering.
And you can make your decision whether or not you think it's worth the risk reward to get into that.
That's essentially how they work. I forget the second part of the question, but that's
sort of how they work. I think that covers a lot of it. Stock Talk,
curious how deep you go with options. Your thoughts about kind of this being taken and
put in an ETF wrapper. I think Gary in the audience, Gary, I'd love to get you on stage
Gary in the audience, Gary, I'd love to get you on stage to talk about this as well.
to talk about this as well. But Stock Talk, what's your thoughts here?
But Stock Talk, what's your thoughts here?
Yeah, I think it's smart.
You know, I think people are seeking leverage in the markets in smart ways.
And I think this is kind of a way where you can get that leverage in an intelligent way.
And honestly, focusing on, you know, the names that are popular is obviously the right way to do it initially.
You have Palantir on here, N Tesla, Coinbase, et cetera. I think that makes it even more interesting to the retail
community because these are the types of names that they want to get leverage on when they're
looking for it. So yeah, I think it's smart. Yeah, I think strategically launching in the
middle of the month was great for our portfolio managers. I know like Gav's been wanting one of our portfolio managers to be on one of these calls.
I've been wanting them to be on one of these calls and they want to be on one of these calls and they're coming on.
Our head of product and lead portfolio manager, Calvin Zhang, is coming on this Thursday.
But the reason why he hasn't is because everything that we've been doing besides managing our other strategies has been making sure that these are operating great and so forth so good.
We're very comfortable with the way that they've been operating.
We purposefully launched them in the middle of the month because we wanted to make sure that we got the right exposure.
And we're really looking forward to seeing what those full month cap rates are at the end of the month. And I think it's going to be very interesting because again, like even from
a personal perspective, if the cap rate is set appropriately and it's high enough, I mean,
it's something that I might not even be able to resist getting into personally because, you know,
the thought of being able to get an accelerated move to the upside, but only taking one times risk
again, how many times, I mean, I know a
lot of these stocks we're talking about, they move pretty quickly, but how many times do you
get a plus 20 position or a plus 25 position or a plus 30 position? And when we back tested this,
we saw that there were periods, some months, where some of the strategies had caps of like 39%.
You got to think about that for a minute. If I
had the ability to get amplified returns up to 39%, why wouldn't I take that only one downside,
you know, one times downside risk? And so, you know, because again, if a stock makes, if it's
set that high and a stock makes a move at 20% for the month, which is a great move, like a phenomenal
move in one month, you're going to get the ability to get up to that cap, which could be 39% or
something like that. I don't want to make it sound like they're always going to be that high
because they're not. And really it depends on the pricing of the options and the volatility,
but we back-tested these names enough to know that there will be periods of time where you're
going to be able to get that cap that high.
And I think that's going to be when a lot of people will start considering these strategies.
And so we'll see what happens at the end of the month. Again, we don't love volatility.
I actually love volatility because it gives you the ability to get into names that you really
are convinced about. And I know a lot of people do like volatility, traders like volatility.
But at times when the markets are moving the way they are and there's a lot of uncertainty,
I know people get nervous.
We really generally like volatility, especially with what's happening in the market today.
I mean, we feel pretty good about the US economy.
Europe is recovering.
So we're pretty bullish.
It's just a matter of getting through a lot of the noise. I want to ask you, so I'm looking, I want to like try and understand more of what's
happening here. Cause I'm looking at the Tesla one, the TSLO. Um, and I'm looking at the holdings
here. I know the weightings can be weird with options and different things, but there are
four different, uh, option strikes in here. There's a three3.8 calls, 340.8 calls, 357.2 calls,
and then 323.8 puts. So I'm just kind of, I would love to kind of understand a little bit more about
like, maybe this is a portfolio manager question, but I'd be curious on what's happening here. Two
of them have negative numbers, or we may be buying some and selling some here.
This is an option strategy play
is what we're kind of underlying here.
So I'm just curious more on the actual strikes
and how it works and stuff like that.
So I won't speak to why we picked those particular strikes.
I'll leave that for the portfolio managers,
but think about it this way.
You're going long a call
and then you're shorting a put
and that's providing
you to want the one-to-one um um exposure to the underlying holding because we can't hold
the actual stock and we're not using swaps in this so that's providing it so those are the first two
legs then we're we're adding additional calls to get the upside and then we're we're buying
protection right so those are the four
different things that you see. And I'm not looking at the same screen that you're looking at. I'm not
on my screen right now. When we have Calvin on the call this week, he could talk you through
the why and the reasoning behind it and why we pick those strikes in those calls. Again, I have a good understanding of what we do, but I'm not the portfolio manager.
And I would hate to talk out of school specifically, you know, why they're doing what they're doing.
I just know the concepts behind it.
And I'd rather have them talk about it because, you know, those are the guys, those are the experts.
Those are the guys with years of experience trading options.
And I just don't want to say something that's just not spot on.
Good question.
Do we have Gary on stage?
Yeah, I'm here.
Gary, have you seen these before?
Ironically, it's funny because I'm sitting at my desk literally doing a screen for leverage DTFs
to try and find some hedging and some stuff because you guys all know I don't do options.
So these things are fantastic.
I joined the discussion late and I was just kind of doing a little look into TSLO.
And my guess is that this is just, just excuse my ignorance because I am the dumbest
one on this panel and I say this all the time. It caps you from the upside, but it protects you
from the downside, right? Yeah. Think of it as a structured note. You know, you're going to get
upside capture up to two times the cap, right? And whatever that cap is, it'll be set again on
the last business day of the month for the following month, right? Point to point calendar month. And yeah, because you're buying
that protection, that's the reason why it's capped. You're only getting one time on the downside.
So again, it's a personal preference for people that want to get some kind of possibility for an
accelerated return. Let's face it, if we could all pick those months
where any position is going to go up 10, 20, 30, 40%, and we knew that, and we were convinced
about that, and we always got our timing perfect, there would be no need for protection on the
downside. The problem is we don't have that ability, and nobody does. And there are really great traders out there that are good at it.
And they use technical analysis and they use, you know, mathematical algorithms and so on and so forth.
And, you know, those types of people are, you know, few and far between.
But a lot of times when people are trading on a day to day basis, especially if they're using leverage and they're not experienced, they often take their lumps. And so while we know that there's interest in those vehicles and we're
very bullish on those vehicles and we have a lot of interest in our two times leverage vehicles,
we also know that there's a huge portion of the investing community and trading community
that likes that protection. So essentially, yeah, that's exactly what you're getting.
It's like a structured note for a single stock inside of an etf wrapper and we're going to do all the risk management for
you we're going to apply the leverage to the upside up to that cap and we're going to provide
the downside management one time the loss uh for people that are interested uh you know in option
strategies but really don't know how to do them themselves.
And I'm the perfect, perfect person for this, because honestly, I don't do options. I've traded for 40 years. I just hate options. I hate thinking about it. It makes my brain hurt.
And I always say to my audience, hey, there's different risk tolerances out there. And I won't
trade Palantir because it's too expensive for me. And I just won't. So these types of ETFs that come out are the perfect vehicle, absolutely perfect for somebody.
Again, I'm 55 years old.
I don't do options.
I don't want it.
Like you said, there's people on this platform who are in this space who are far more intelligent
than I am in options.
But I just want a simple ETF.
So literally, I was just on my
computer and I'm researching, okay, give me some ETF with some protection stuff, because I don't
think we're at the end of the downside, but I also don't think we see an enormous downside.
So I just want a little bit. And these ETFs are nice and easy to trade, very easy to get in and
out of if you want to. And so they provide you some of that. So thanks for inviting
me up, Gab, because I think it's a perfect opportunity for me to just listen to more
information about it. Yeah. And one of the things that's great about it is it keeps you in the game
when you're in a two times leverage strategy, right? And you start to see that thing go down,
if it moves against you, and we've had days like that, when Elon Musk and Donald Trump got into that bitter X battle, right?
And all of a sudden, Twitter got hit.
If you were in that two times leveraged ETF, that hurt.
You felt like you were on the floor in the fetal position getting kicked in the stomach all day long, all day long, all day long.
And then the next day, when it continued, you felt the same way.
But Tesla came back, right? If you're only taking the one-time downside and you still have that
opportunity for two times cap when it turns around and goes up, you're more likely to hang
with the position. And that's the beauty of these things. And then again, let's say you're in that
cap position and you're getting towards the end of the month, but you haven't really realized the
return that you want, but the stock has been super volatile, you have the ability to stay in it
and roll it to the next cap. And if there's been a lot of volatility, potentially the cap is a lot
higher and now you're just rolling over it into the next period. And so it gives you the ability
to take those kicks to the gut when things aren't going well, because it's almost as if you're just in the position, you're not taking on additional leverage to the downside.
And you have the ability to withstand that downturn and stay in it for the potential for amplified gains on the upside.
And then the other thing that I would say is, and it's really important, let's just say you
can't stomach it.
You don't even like the one time down that you're taking, even if you think there's going
to be a return.
You could always get out of the position.
You're not locked in for that month.
So it's daily liquid, just like every other ETF.
And that's the beauty of the innovation of the ETF wrapper.
If you want to get out, you can get out.
You go on the website,
you're going to see what the position holdings value is
on a day-to-day basis.
You'll see the full cap, like I said,
but then you can hover over where you are for that day.
It'll tell you what the remaining cap is
if you were to get in.
It'll also tell you what you would get,
what the value of the options are
if you were to get out that day. So you have full
transparency to make a decision. And let's just say you get out. Let's just say it's like day one
of that X-Rant, right? And you're down pretty big and you're worried. So you blow out of it,
just like you blow out of some other positions. But then the next day it goes down even further
and you're like, oh man, I want to get back into this thing and i think i still have enough remaining cap target cap for the end of the month
where i can get some amplified returns if it does return but i don't have to take you know the the
gut punch if it continues to just go down and down and down and down you can get back in it's
the beauty of the etf wrapper you don't have to hold it for the month-to-month. The only reason why holding it for the month-to-month period is important is if you want
to realize that total cap or as much of it as you can. Last but not least, I would say,
if you're in a situation where, let's just say it's the reverse, you get into it on day one,
um it's the reverse you get into it on day one let's just say it has like a a 20 20 cap again
right 20 cap and tesla just goes to the moon or nvidia goes to the moon or palantir recovers and
goes to the moon or coinbase or whichever one you're in strategy right because strategy can
move pretty big and let's just say you hit that cap you could literally get out of this
you hit that cap you could literally get out of this roll it in if you think the momentum is going
to continue roll that into a two times levered of one of those positions if you wanted you could
put it into the actual uh stock if you wanted because you don't want to miss any more of the
upside but you're satisfied with the return that you got from the leverage you can get out of that
on a day-to-day basis you can see what the value of that option is and you can make the decision. You know,
I've earned enough. I want out of this thing now. And if I want to get, you know, single exposure,
I could just go into the stock. If I want to get amplified exposure and I'm not worried about the
risk anymore because I think the risk is off the table, I can get into a levered fund. It's so
flexible. And that's what the beauty
of the etf wrapper is when you're taking an option strategy and putting it in like you literally have
as much flexibility as you want yeah by the way i pinned up in the nest above um a tweet which has
all of the the etfs and then blow it as a link you guys definitely dig in. We're talking here about the ETF and understanding it.
And you're not going to understand if you don't go to the website
and dig into some of the holdings.
This is definitely a strategy that I'm sure a lot of people are running for themselves.
And if you're sitting there like, ah, I do this for myself, that's great.
But it's for like the everyone else who's doing everything else
to kind of take advantage of these strategies.
So I'm excited to learn more.
But I'm digging into each one and kind of like what the options
are and what the strategies are.
What has been the most popular one so far?
You know, I think across the board, we've had like, you know, just cautionary interests
right now.
And I think it's because we started them in the middle of the month.
We're on an educational tour to help investors understand what these are.
And the good news is we've gotten a lot of great partners that have been helping us
both earn media and paid. And so it's been excellent. Like a lot of people have been
wanting to write stories about these capped accelerated funds, but just like anything else,
when you're first launching, you got to get the word out and you got to educate people and you
got to allow them to do their due diligence. And kind of like what I said, like I'm waiting for that first full cap. Like I want to see what
comes at the end of the month to see where we're at and I want to see how they operate. So I think
people are very interested. They're looking, they're asking questions. We're out educating
everybody. And, you know, people are starting to think about how they're going to position these going into September.
So we'll see how that works.
But so far, the main thing is they're operating well and they're trading well and the PMs are happy.
And again, when Calvin comes on on Thursday, he'll be able to go through that a little bit more with you and talk to you about that.
This was great. I know we're going to have another follow-up chat on Thursday together
with Calvin as well, 12 p.m. Eastern on Thursday for those that want to dive in and understand,
but hopefully the overall concept, you know, the external of this hopefully is easy enough
to grasp, right? 2x upside up to a certain cap. So whether that's, you know, 8%, 10%, 30%, whatever it is, you can go look on
the website and it'll tell you at the start of the month and then it adjusts throughout the month
as to what that upside cap is, but 1x on the downside. So we've talked a lot about leverage
ETFs and UNHG or some of these Tesla ones and others like that. They're great examples where
you're double leveraged both ways, no cap either side. This is a little bit of a different tool.
Instead of using swaps and pieces like that, you're now using options internally
and giving yourself capped upside, but only one X downside.
So really interesting stuff to me.
I've never seen anything like this.
It definitely took me a little bit to understand,
but now I feel like I have a pretty firm grasp on it.
And so hopefully for everyone else, this is easy enough to understand as well.
What we can talk about a little bit more on Thursday is situations where we see these
making sense to use and pieces like that.
And so we'll go through that.
Paul, any final comments from you on this one?
No, I just want to say you haven't seen anything like it because nothing like it exists in
the marketplace today.
We're sort of a first mover to this market.
And this is just the beginning.
And, you know, I've been getting a of uh inquiries about a lot of different things that we're doing at themes and you know where the
industry is going and the number one thing that i always say everybody's always asking me like
what's the next innovation what's the greatest innovation so on and so forth the greatest
innovation is the etf wrapper because it allows you to do so much. And the second piece of that is that, you know, regulations are really getting, you know,
more favorable to new products.
So just keep your eyes out for more things to come,
especially from themes and leverage shares by themes.
And, you know, this is the first iteration
of these capped accelerated products.
As we learn from them, as we see how they work,
as we see how they operate, as we see how they operate,
and as we see interest, there could be more iterations, longer periods, shorter periods.
We're going to be working really hard to provide products that make sense. And I just want to thank
you and your audience for listening and giving us the audience to get this message out.
Perfect. Thanks so much.
Appreciate your time as always.
Looking forward to Thursday.
All right. Thanks so much, guys.
Have a good one.
Appreciate it.
Gov, what were the tickers again?
The ticker?
Yeah, pinned up in the nest above.
TSLO is the Tesla one.
NVDO is the NVIDIA one.
PLOO is the Palantir one.
POIO is the Coinbase one. And then MSOO is the NVIDIA one, PLOO is the Palantir one, SPOIO is the Coinbase one,
and then MSOO is the MicroStrategy one.
Again, that tweet is pinned up in the nest above,
and then right below that is the link for you guys to dig in deeper,
for you guys to start your research
and understand what the calls and the options
and everything that they've got going on underneath it.
Sounds good.
Yeah, Gabby, you got any final thoughts? I thought you explained it well there too at the end seems like you had a good grasp yeah i mean to me it's it's straightforward to make sense i think
the main thing to understand is like it's very obvious to me when to use the double leverage
etfs and maybe this is just a similar situation for me those are you know really really good
tools around earnings catalyst events right items like that you know, really, really good tools around earnings, catalyst events, right? Items like that.
You know, if you thought that Buffett was going to add UNH the other week, hey, well,
there's UNHG, right?
And if for some reason now UNH held up very well, but if it had, let's say, popped 10%
in after hours and sold off that whole move, I mean, you could have sold, right?
And gotten out of the position if you were in the ETF, but not in the options.
And so maybe it's just the same
thing here for these other ones. And it's just basically, you know, hey, you're using it around
earnings and catalysts and using it to trade in after hours. And you're only giving yourself one
X downside and capped upside, which can make a lot of sense around earnings, right? You kind of
have that risk to the downside. And realistically, how much is it going to pop to the upside in one
day, right? And maybe you can just capture that double leverage move and it's maybe an even better tool than what we have
beforehand. So I think that those are just like my thoughts, but we're going to talk more with
Calvin on Thursday and just get a better understanding of when is the right time to be
using these tools because that's the main thing. But I do think that to me, the fact that someone
else is going doing the strategy and there's a professional that's selecting the option strikes
and dealing with all that, and I don't have to care about theta decay and all those pieces. And I just can sit
there, you know, in one of these ETFs and they do the strategy for me. That I agree with Paul is,
is really one of the greatest innovations that we've seen.
Cool. Well, I appreciate everyone for being here and make sure you're following all the speakers
check if you guys have any thoughts or questions as you guys are digging into the etfs feel free
to dm that god blackspot now you got a blackspot account the leverage shares anyone you want to
send the question over to and we'll get it passed along when we have another conversation but
we appreciate everyone for hanging out with us today.
I love our chairs.
