Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Aug. 13, 2025 Duration: 2:59:27Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. What is up everyone?
Welcome in, welcome in.
Happy, what is today?
Wednesday, August the 13th.
And I forgot what day it was there for a second.
All right, we'll take a little look around the market
as we get everyone up here on stage.
Palantir just had a headline that Citron Research is shorted.
That's interesting.
That just popped up right when I was trying to unmute here for a second.
Yeah, a lot of news headlines, random news headlines today.
Market didn't do a whole lot.
We gapped up at the open, new all-time highs, and trended down most of the day.
A little bit of a recovery here, slightly, the last little bit.
S&P is up 0.19%.
QQQ, NASDAQ is breakeven, or we'll call it breakeven.
We're sitting right at yesterday's close.
IWM is the outperformer, again, up 1.6% over that $230 area.
And the Dow Jones also having a good day, almost 1% up there.
VIX down 1.7%.
It's $14.50-ish right now.
And what else?
TLT was moving up a little bit.
Bitcoin and all the crypto names, continued action over there.
Ethereum up 3%. Solana up 4%, Bitcoin over the 120.
It's hanging out just under 122 right now, up about a percent, 1.3, we'll call that.
And there's been some, I guess, some interesting names and movements, some interesting headlines all throughout the day.
We'll try to cover all of that.
And we'll jump into it cover all of that and we'll
jump into it a little bit here i know where evan's at a lot of apple news and no evan here i'm sure
we'll get oh oh i traded apple today i trade apple today let me talk let me talk did you
short it did you short it no i i traded it long there you hey hey i don't blame you i was just uh
i was just uh hoping evan was maybe gonna sneak in and hear the telling to that. Either way, Options Mike, great to have you. How are you today?
Good, Em. How are you doing, bud?
I'm good. You know, a little gap up, a little fade, a little hold.
I don't know. That's all that was really on my radar.
But there's a lot of other interesting pieces kind of moving around, little circulations going on here.
You said you traded some Apple. What's all been on your radar today so it's so okay today will be day eight in a row of going the opposite direction
of the previous day right we we went right here today we're trying to come off of it a little bit
but we'll see um the market's broadening out so for me i think there's some good news here is the
dow is on fire today trying to go for the all-time high and there's a broadening
out in this market a little bit and which is what we've needed right the one thing the one thing
that always bothers me when you have 10 or 12 names that are the only names people are trading
and holding the market up that is a recipe for eventually failure right you can't they can't
just keep holding the market up forever so this is some good news we have a new all-time high on
the spy on the queues on the smhs
the iwm is breaking out and is above 230 broke above key resistance just now new highs of the
day there um i'm not sure what's going on with google here on this down candle that news that
came out about them getting out of uh in some markets getting rid of some of the apps for
cryptocurrencies was 10 minutes before the big sell-off. And I'm not sure, it's just weird how we got that big down candle there.
That was a really weird story. It was from therage.co. You know, kind of an unknown source
that at least in my world, I don't know that source. And like you said, the article was posted.
I wonder because it was such an off-the-wall source that that's why it took so long to start hitting people's radars
i mean i'm sure you saw the same thing too you saw it just dive down and then all of a sudden
you know yeah and apple went and i'm like this is old news and i'm like you know algos don't um
algos don't try to think things out right.
They just fire.
You get a headline, the algos just fire, and they figure out later whether it worked or didn't.
Let me guess.
Apple slander?
Are you telling me this Apple headline is horrible?
No, no.
There was no Apple headline or Google headline. We're trying to figure out the big drop that came about 25 minutes ago, Evan.
I'm sorry.
Evan, have you ever heard of The Rage?
Have you ever heard of The Rage?
It's called The Rage.
That was the source of that Google news that we were talking about.
Oh, what was the news, though?
Google is taking crypto apps off of some markets, the wallets.
Yeah, so basically it said that the Google store was banning cryptocurrency wallets in
jurisdictions such as the US and EU unless they obtained banking licenses.
But the drops didn't happen until 10 to 15 minutes later.
It was just very weird.
It was just very strange.
A lot of weird movement.
So what was good today?
Intrinated moves don't have to make sense.
Don't have to make sense.
I did five trades today, and I'm focusing on where I can find momentum.
So for me today, I was watching out of the gate.
AMD was gapping up and running.
There was no news on it.
It was strong out of the gate.
And also Amazon with that news about adding same day delivery to a thousand cities or so.
So I jumped on Amazon's September 230 calls and then I jumped on coin quickly.
The August 22nd, 350 calls as it was jumping into that big gap.
Those both paid nicely. I took a small loss on Tesla calls.
I chased as flow kept coming into that to 348 area.
And then I jumped on AMD later and then I jumped on Apple and had a nice trade there into that two 348 area and then i jumped on amd later and then i jumped on apple
and had a nice trade there uh into that highs of the morning session not the afternoon the market's
giving trades and uh you know you know yesterday we come we talked about it i mean it's it's a
it's a hated bear a bull rally but the market's still giving trades and they're giving them to
the long side it's broadening out we're in the dog days of summer um you know i'm watching uh citron i call
him shitron i'm i'm shorting palantir it's beyond overvalued that's a way to get hurt i i and this
is where they'll come in they'll absolutely just rape him left over and just kill him here on this
because while i agree palantance is overvalued i
wouldn't be shorting this thing blindly you know just no effing way not in this market um
the market's fine guys i i mean i i you know at some point we're gonna get a top and it's gonna
come in and it needs to and but you know today felt like a better day because it's broader the
banks participated goldman sachs new all-time highs.
It's a matter of finding what you want.
My long-term account, I haven't sold anything in a couple weeks.
Mike, we were talking yesterday about the bend the knee trade.
It feels like the GS – I'm watching Intel too, but GS, I don't know.
He's going to the White House next week if If the past couple of times has told me anything.
The only thing I think that's going on right now is Trump is very distracted and rightfully so with Russia.
Right. He has that big meeting in Alaska on Friday.
So, you know, somebody in my room brought up today.
Where are the where are the pharma tariffs?
I'm like, supposed to be this week. But I think right now the focus is elsewhere.
But you could see that.
I mean, you know, the market is, it's right now in irrational exuberance.
You have still a ton of money on the sidelines, and that money can propel this market a lot higher.
And it's broadening out.
It's nice to see the Dow trying to play catch up to all-time highs.
It's nice to see the IWM running today.
The NASDAQ's been the weaker link today.
What I don't like is the lack of continuation.
Like if you held meta overnight, you had seconds to get out of that trade.
Same thing with Google.
Neither one of them participated after those really nice days yesterday.
But if you come in flat and you can take a step back and look at things,
it's giving
lots of things to do which is nice to cut you off you said something about uh your long-term
portfolio i i haven't sold anything in weeks i'm still sitting in everything i still have because
you know this market's not giving me any reason to sell anything at this point right just sit
and hold like even though amazon which is my largest holding at this position at this point
i think i have 500 shares there and the earnings that came down it's coming right back this market
is giving no reason to take profits or get out of positions real real quick mike he didn't say he's
shorting it he said oh he came out and said it now he no no no listen he said he didn't say he
shorted it he said he
increased his short position he'd already been shorting it he's doing an interview on fox news
he's already he's already getting he's already getting uh ran through the coals and he's
increasing just wanted to make that clear do you remember when he cried after the meme names
and said i'll never short again. I'll never short again.
Yes.
Hey, listen, I've been watching on the other side, though.
Were they the one who stopped doing shorts as an institution?
Their long RKT has worked so far.
I've been watching that one.
Beautiful today. We'll move on from it.
But maybe, yeah, this is not a name
to short. I don't disagree.
Not that it can't come in. I had something on Palant name to short. I don't disagree. Not that it can come in.
I had something on Palantir this morning where I was looking in my IRA.
I am up 600% on the Palantir I have in here,
but I've already sold more than I put in coming into this.
So to me, I'm like, all right, how much do I want to sell here or let it ride?
I sold one more share this morning at 189.
I got lucky.
It'll probably keep going up.
But I really don't think I'm going to be selling that much.
But that's kind of, I guess, maybe what stock talks about with that cost basis advantage.
We'll see what the next 10 years look like.
But I mean, it's clearly overvalued right now.
But that doesn't mean the market can't stay wrong.
Or, you know.
Yeah. You know what I or, you know. Yeah.
You know what I'm trying to say.
Yeah.
So, I mean, everything here is a lot of other people talking about.
I think everything remains, you know.
I don't like this market.
I think, you know, setups need to be, you know, we'd like to see a refresh and a pullback.
But, you know, at this point, there's really, I was looking at the calendar.
Until we get NVIDIA earnings. There's really nothing out there.
We have Jackson Hole coming up next week
at the end of the week,
but they're not going to,
there's no decisions coming for that, right?
Jackson Hole is next week.
Jackson Hole is the 21st.
No, Jackson Hole is the 21st.
21st.
Really?
Wow, that's weird.
I've said it out loud on this space
like in the last few days.
I don't listen to you.
We do have 13 Fs tomorrow.
All these institutional investors
are going to be updating their portfolio.
We're getting a bunch kind of trickling out.
But Buffett, Ackman, etc.
after the close tomorrow.
You never know.
Might be one or two of those names.
Yeah, but I mean,
there's just not a major catalyst here.
I really do think that the next major catalyst
is NVIDIA earnings,
which is what, the last week of August?
Two weeks from now, roughly, give or take.
Yeah.
It is on the 27th.
Right.
And they're going to beat and die.
The question is whether the market's going to think it's good enough here
for what they've run.
Why don't we – I know we got Allie up here.
I really thought Jackson Hole was September.
And that kind of threw me for a little bit of a loop there.
What are we watching for this Jackson Hole symposium?
And there's just been a lot of data out, I guess.
Not that much coming up, but CPI yesterday.
I'm curious what's on you there, Allie.
We appreciate you being back.
Yeah, no, great to be back. I do think there's a lot of data. We're going to continue to see
that data trickle in. Jackson Hole, there's always a lot of volatility here. And right now,
markets are pricing a near 100% certainty of a Fed rate cut. And I am a little surprised by that.
Of course, the CPI report better than feared in a lot of ways, but court prices still came
in hot.
We had a six-month high.
Services inflation started to firm up a bit.
And I just talked to Michael Gapin.
He's a chief economist at Morgan Stanley.
And he still is maintaining his call of no rate cuts in 2025.
Now, will we potentially see some telegraphing from Powell at Jackson Hole?
Maybe. And he's been pretty good in the past of giving us a heads up whether we're going to see
a rate cut, how much we could potentially see. I think 25 basis points is likely if we see one at
all in September. And it does feel like along with the two descents
that we saw in the last meeting, softer jobs market, maybe that is the move that the Fed is
going to be taking. But we do have inflation that is drifting further from that 2% target.
And the labor market is definitely softening, of course. Unemployment rate is low, but a lot of that has to do with the
tight labor market that we're in due to immigration controls. And that was basically
the argument from Capon, is that why he believes that the Fed should remain on hold for the time
being. But I think it's not just about September. It's really what we see throughout the rest of 2025 and even
into 2026. And I know markets usually have this knee-jerk reaction whenever we see rate cuts,
but there is a part of me that wonders if monetary policy or the direction of monetary policy
matters as much now to markets as it maybe did previously. It just feels like that other things
have been driving this rally. I do
think a rate cut has been priced in at this point, but AI earnings, Citi boosted its S&P 500 target
earlier this week to 6,600. And Scott Croner, the analyst there, he specifically cited earnings,
but not just the positive results that we saw this latest quarter, but what we're going to see in the out quarters. We're raising estimates in 2025, 2026, and beyond, and that's
really helping boost the outlook here. But across the board, a lot of my sources have been saying
that we're not oversold or overbought at this point, that we're pretty much in this neutral
territory. So we'll see. I do think the general consensus is that stocks can
go higher from here. And certainly heading into the year, definitely around the Liberation Day
tariff announcements, there was a lot of this fear that the markets weren't going to be able
to be as resilient. You did see the sell America trade at work. You saw long-term yields rise. Now yields are boring again. So it
feels like all the pieces are in play, but that doesn't mean we're not going to see some volatility
to come. My question around this Jackson Hole though, it's been used as a chance to kind of
change tone, shift stuff. You kind of think to the middle of the pandemic, you know, Jackson Hole's a
beautiful place. And then he's in this dark little room telling us how bad stuff is. And he kind of
started a regime there. Like, I wonder if that's what we end up. Is that something that people are
expecting or starting to price in? Like, I mean, we sometimes talk in these spaces, people will
see a stock down 5%, 10% and try and rush to ask why. and they'll see a stock up 5, 10% and just be
like, okay, yeah, that's awesome.
And not always ask why, you know, I'm thinking about what, what this could be.
Is it like, I don't know, are we, we started to price in maybe a shift of tone from Powell?
And then we know what, what this next Fed chair is going to be, uh, what they're probably
going to end up doing.
Yeah.
And I wonder if maybe that's part of it too, right? Looking out to the future when we know we will have a more dovish Fed chair and
what that can mean for the path forward for rate cuts. Again, I think Powell's been great at
telegraphing things. And I think depending on what he says, that could change where markets are
pricing in right now when it comes to that September rate
cut. We're near 100%. If he comes out and really sticks firm with his previous talking points that
inflation is still too hot for them, perhaps we do see that knee-jerk reaction in markets.
I do think if September comes and we don't see a rate cut,
markets are going to sell off considering, again, I believe it's been priced in. And it's also just
interesting to kind of think of this full circle moment that we've seen from this time last year,
right, when we had that surprise 50 basis point cut from the Fed. And it got me thinking about what's different this time around,
what's similar. And talking to my sources, it is a lot different in many ways. For example,
the Fed funds rate is 100 basis points lower today than where it was last year.
The unemployment rate is still low. It didn't spike like we saw at the end of last summer.
And then, of course, there's a tariff element to that and how there's a lot of uncertainty about where that could lead to inflation and how that could impact growth.
And we haven't seen that pass through effect right now. And I think that's leading to a lot of that optimism.
But we have been hearing from economists that it might be a slower burn and we will slowly see how tariffs impact inflation
over time. So much different story than where we were last year. Yes, payrolls are slowing,
similar to that point last year, but we're just in a different environment at this point.
Trump mentioned Janet Yellen as a potential stand-in today. Did you see that?
There were so many names that were thrown around. Rick Reeder, who I personally love his research, he was thrown around as a name. I mean, we'll see. It feels like it's going to be
one of the Kevins, but I don't know. Like,
you never know. Things could change very quickly. And it has,
things have changed very quickly with this administration.
Yeah, we've seen all kinds of, there's so many like moving pieces of this right now. It's hard
to keep up. What do you foresee or in your circle,
what do people think one of those Kevins are going to get it? Is that what the market would
be happy with? Just is there any take around that? Yeah, I think so. I think that has been
the general consensus. And of course, we got that reporting earlier that the poll was expanding into
11 candidates. And then Trump, I believe, spoke this afternoon saying he's only seeing three to four after
that widened to 11 after those reports.
So it feels like we're back to where we started at this point.
Secretary Besson was on Fox News.
He said that the president has a very open mind when it comes to who he's deciding between.
And, you know, White House has reiterated that unless it comes to the president himself,
any discussions should be regarded as speculation. So I do think Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett are
at the top of the list. He didn't deny that Waller could be among the replacements for Powell, but it feels
like the others that have been floated, Jim Billard, Michelle Bowman, Phil Jefferson, those seem to be
more on the back burner, but still potentially in the running. So we'll have to wait and see.
Of course, we have that BLS nominated person from Trump, Stephen Murren. That's been very controversial.
administrative and personnel switches within the government right now that I think the market is
trying to digest what all of this could mean for the future, not just for the Fed, but also for,
you know, the sake of economic data and everything that we use to determine what should happen to
interest rates and where we're at in the economy. But that's going to lead me into my next question.
What about this? We don't need the jobs numbers anymore. Is that does that sound
creepy to everyone? Yeah, even Besson said he would not support that. I think that would be
a big shock and surprise. That's something that people are largely dismissing. But you know,
that has been something that Trump's pick for the commissioner floated in the past
and it's and his name is EJ Antonia confused him with Steve and Stephen Muir and again a lot of
different personnel changes at this point but uh yeah I just don't don't see that happening I think
the the data is important it's very hard to collect the data I think that's what we've seen
from a lot of these downward revisions and if we're able to get to a better place where we can collect that data and have it be more
reliable, that's awesome. But this entire year, there's just been so many head fakes, so many
switches. I think tariffs have complicated things, the doge layoffs, that's complicated things. So
it's this new reality, this new normal,
that these really kind of archaic and outdated systems and agencies at times, they need to kind of catch up
so that we are able to make really reliable decisions
because it is incredibly important.
But you still need those numbers in order to have that happen.
And then the other piece that came out, Trump basically threatening to sue Powell if he
doesn't lower rates.
At least that's the way that most people were taking that post he put out there.
Do you think there's any credence to that?
Is that something that people are going, oh, gosh, he may actually go through with this,
or it's just more talking points to put more pressure on Powell? No, I think it's more talking points. And I think if investors were really taking that
seriously, you would see that reaction in the bond market. We haven't seen a spike in yield.
Yields are actually lower. And that comes as investors are really pricing in these interest
rate cuts. So anything to do with Fed independence or issues that investors think are going to come out of Trump going after Powell, you're going to see that directly in the bond market.
And the bond vigilantes will return to really check that power.
But right now, I'm not seeing that.
And I don't think that's something that investors are really caring too much about at this point.
But we have seen that issue of Fed independence come up in
the past, and that has had an impact on yields and therefore an impact on equities. So it is
important to keep an eye on those headlines and really assess what's facts from fiction and what
Trump is really serious about versus what he's just, you know, at the moment tweeting on TrueSocial.
Yeah, current FedWatch tool shows 95,
we'll call it 96% chance of a 25 basis point cut for September meeting,
and then two more basically through December.
So basically three cuts back on the board.
Do you think that's where we're sitting at at this point?
Do you agree with that?
Do people in your circle see that as a possibility?
It just seems like we're getting so many different points of view right now.
Does anybody have a clue?
No, and you could see that on Wall Street.
There's a ton of dispersion when it comes to where folks think the Fed funds rate is
going to go.
I've seen the three cuts priced in.
I've seen several no cuts.
I was just talking about Morgan
Stanley. They still see no cuts. And then I just see one cut. So I think more likely than not,
we're going to see that cut in September. But depending on what we see from the data,
it's very possible that we might not get another cut till 2026. And I believe I was on a space as
a few weeks ago, maybe a month ago, and I predicted only one cut.
And I think I'm going to stick with that prediction.
I only think we're going to see one cut.
I do think we're going to have some data that comes in that maybe spooks the Fed a little bit.
But we'll have to see.
I think that's the biggest issue is there's just so much data.
It keeps changing.
This month, CPI mattered to the stock market,
and we saw that immediate reaction and stocks rally. But over the past few months, we haven't
really seen that immediate reaction. It seems like investors are largely looking through a lot
of the previous month's CPI reports due to the fact that we just kept hearing from economists,
well, tariffs are going to need some
time to work their way through. Tariffs are going to not show up in the data at this point.
And I wonder why this month in particular, we did see that jump. And I think it was mostly tied to
these rate cut expectations. And now that we're getting closer and closer to September, that is
top of mind for investors. So September is going to be a big deal. Jackson Hole
is going to be a big deal. September, we usually see some chop if you look back at some seasonality
trends. But by and large, folks are saying that even if we do see some volatility, even if we do
see a pullback in the fall, that we're going to have enough momentum to sort of lift us through
into the end of year.
I appreciate you, Ali.
We'll definitely have you jump back in the conversation at any point.
We'll swing back around to you here in a little bit as well.
Wolfie, I want to ask you around some of those same topics that I was just hitting there and what kind of Evan kicked off with this around the Fed stuff.
What's your take on all this, Wolfie?
Well, so they tell us they have the dual mandate. I think, you know, if you see something material out of the jobs market, that could push.
I think a lot of what she said that kind of went unnoticed with yesterday's inflation
CPI report was echoed today.
I think it was Bostick that, you know, echoed the idea that, is it Bostick?
I don't remember. Whoever the last guy was stated basically that the services inflation is something
that caught his eye and he thinks at this time, you know, one cut is appropriate. The other,
the other speaker this afternoon as well had similar talks.
The two dissents obviously are a thing the last time around.
But I think historically when you get above 70, I think 75% Fed funds expectations, that's usually how it cuts or how it goes.
So in this case, it would be a cut.
She's right. There's data that's going how it cuts so or how it goes so in this case it'd be a cut uh she's right there's
data that's going to come out if there's something that's like material that goes the other way maybe
that that 75 or that 90 whatever it's at now um you know maybe it changes but until then i'm just
going to presume that there's going to be one cut coming in september at least um i was I was with her in the camp saying that this year
would probably be one cut.
I thought that they'd cut for, I thought that the one cut
would be 50 basis points, not 25.
And we got into the semantics conversation about it,
but take that out of it.
I think if you take them at face value,
and I don't know why you wouldn't at this point,
because I don't think Powell's just going to bend the knee
to bend the knee um you know i think if if the data suggests
they should cut more than once they'll cut more than once but you know with stocks at an all-time
high and um you know the economy not not yet breaking down uh there's stuff under the surface
you could have arguments about but you know from surface level 30,000 feet up view,
nothing's broken and things fine.
So what's the argument for cutting rates at this point?
Would you just be like loosen up housing, I guess?
And I don't think that they're in that business.
I think they're in the business,
if you take them at face value,
to use their dual mandate.
My question would be,
is they describe rates as moderately restrictive.
And if you're getting closer down to your targets,
that doesn't mean, hey,
let's cut rates down to 1% or zero again.
But if you're back down to your targets
and what you're seeing is back to your target,
shouldn't you be moderate,
not moderately restrictive?
What's restrictive though? That's the question right now.
I don't know, but they classify it themselves.
Powell has said moderately restrictive right now for a little bit.
I don't remember what point you're speaking to,
but my point is outside of housing or real estate, what is restrictive?
If you've got liquidity doesn't seem to be a problem, yields are backing off, stocks
at an all-time high, the only part left really of the equation would be housing, right?
And if you are a Fed, and this is not me saying it, it's not me saying that this is a problem, but they're still
touting today, as of today, more than one touting the services inflation number and the core being
above. So I'm not here to, I don't disagree with you, but I'm just going off of what they're saying.
So sure, I don't disagree that we could get a cut in September, but I think from that point, it's just going to
have to rely on whether or not anything kind of erodes to a point where they have to kind
of get preemptively so that it's not actually a, quote, too late problem.
Ali, did you have any thoughts on any of that?
Yeah, and that's something that I asked folks, especially when comparing and contrasting September last year.
Because last year, the cut was seen as a catch-up cut, right?
That potentially the Fed was too late.
So what were the lessons learned that you can draw from that? And how can you avoid that mistake again? And the answer I got was, again, how
different the environment is today. And I think that creates a really complicated decision and
a complicated backdrop for the Fed. And that's something we've been talking about over the past
few months, is that they're really stuck between a rock and a hard place, stuck between their two dual mandates.
And of course, there's that question of whether or not the 2% inflation target, whether that should
move up a little bit. Maybe we're at levels that can be sustained, but there has been no conversation
of that, at least from the Fed. So you have to assume that they are still working
towards that 2% target. And if you remove tariffs, I believe JP Morgan had a note out this morning
that said, if you remove tariffs from the equation, we probably would be back to that 2% target,
except right now we're trading around 3%. So how does the Fed handle that? Do you look through
a lot of this tariff noise at this point? They've been debating that question. And it's something
that Powell has spoken about. The textbook tells you to look through tariffs as a one-time price
increase, but it's such a different type of change. I think the effective tariff rate was right around 2%, something like that,
at the beginning of the year. Now, we're at just around 18% according to the latest budget from
the Yale Budget Lab, according to the estimate from the Yale Budget Lab. So when you go from
very minimal tariffs to just this double-digit tariff rate, that's going to change things. And we've seen
businesses absorb a lot of those costs, but at some point they might have to pass that on to
the consumer. That's going to start to hit their margins. We have seen certain businesses that are
more exposed to lower income consumers struggle a bit on the earnings front. If you listen to some
of these earnings calls, there's a lot of talk about bifurcation of the US consumer where the higher income consumer is doing great,
but then that middle and lower income consumer is switching things up a bit. They're trading down.
You can look at Kava results. The stock is down about 20% after that same store sales miss. It's
very similar to what we saw with Chipotle and Kava CEO.
He was on Yahoo Finance earlier today, and he talked about the fact that the consumer is now facing a lot of macroeconomic fog, and they're trying to navigate that.
And that does mean being more selective, being more choosy.
And I also think even beyond what we're seeing over this past year, post-pandemic, consumers
are different. Their, consumers are different.
Their spending behaviors are different.
And that does have an immediate impact
on different companies and some of those biggest companies
that we always talk about as a bellwether
for the state of the US economy.
So that's something I'm looking at as well,
is how is a consumer holding up?
And retail sales will be getting that fresh data on Friday.
That will give us another check on the consumer.
But this is everything that the Fed is focused on.
It's not just the CPI report and the BLS report.
You really have to take all of this data in aggregate.
And then you also have to couple that along with earnings
and what we're seeing with the stock market as well,
because all of that is kind of going to give you the best picture
of where we're at with the economy
and how much the consumer can withstand at this point.
Wolfie, you get your head up. Yeah, i got a call to tell him i don't know if you i just making sure that uh i didn't cut out um but i i tend to agree on the the other data points that she mentioned like
there's a bunch of a bunch of anecdotal pieces there's some other things that are coming down the pike too. So like, you know, the, the EBT stuff's coming down the pike. So there's some, some more, probably some
more tightening on the lower end consumer again as well. But, you know, obviously the top,
what is it like 10% of consumers make up like 90% of the consumer sales data. So as long as those people are not impacted, as long as there's no erosion there, it should
be fine.
But outside of that, my comment was just to answer your questions about the Fed cuts in
general.
It's not about the market or any of that stuff.
Stocks at an all-time high.
There's a little bit of an air pocket between now and next Friday, which is when Jackson Hole is.
And then there's another air pocket from that point.
And then NVIDIA earnings the following week.
And so, you know, outside of those two points past tomorrow, there's not really much that comes in the way between then and, you know, mid-September when you start to get the other data sets
that we're waiting for,
which is like, are they going to cut or not?
And so with that in mind,
IWM rotation seems to be a thing now
versus the last few times where it failed.
It's up meaningfully here in the last few days.
Even, you know, Mike talked about the down aims,
that dispersion that we've seen for the better part of the year.
Now it's kind of that pendulum is kind of swinging the other way.
So, you know, if you've got positions on the table,
this is not like, oh, go sell your stuff.
It's just these are the narratives that are important to kind of pay attention to. as some of these beaten up software, cyclical, retail, rate sensitive stuff started to find
some sort of floor as well.
So I think you kind of still have to be tactical in some respects.
This doesn't mean that you've got to be defensive.
It's just if we've enjoyed the better part of the last few months being led by the Metas, the Microsofts, the AI names, the NVIDIAs, etc.
You know, maybe some of these names that haven't participated in the last few months or have participated less in the last few months, maybe they start to get a kick in the ass here.
the kick in the ass here. I think the stat that I read yesterday or heard on one of your guys'
spaces was that 50% of names still trade below their over 51% of names trade below their 50 day.
And then I think 60% trade below their 200 day or vice versa. So, you know, that, that either,
that either means that there's room for a catch up possibly, or it means that, you know, that either means that there's room for a catch-up, possibly, or it means that,
you know, if and when something does kind of stall out, that that's not a positive thing.
And I'd bet that, you know, with the wind at your sails, the way the market's been,
I'd bet for the catch-up over, you know, betting for the overall, this is the end type of thing.
So, you know, just take a look at, I think Sam was talking about it yesterday,
and I tagged him in two names in particular, Adobe CRM, for example.
Sold off, don't think it's coincidental that those two names,
some other software names, some other names that have been sold off,
like Snow, Team, Monday, et etc. I don't think it's
coincidental those names started to find a floor simultaneously. I also don't think it's coincidental
that the IWM breaks out and you get this retail ramp as well. And some of these oil names and
cyclical names start to find a floor as well. Take a look at like Dow Chemical, for example. Stock made an
all-time low, I think, in the last two weeks. It undercut that low and now starting to find some
sort of possible mean reversion set up to the upside. So I think the alpha is probably in the
beta chase here between now and when the announcement happens. And then from there,
just kind of take what they say at face value
and then kind of reassess and go from there.
To talk a little bit about,
basically the software meltdown we've been seeing
for the last couple of weeks.
I mean, there's been distilled fear
that pretty much AI is going to eat up the moat
of software companies out there, most of the software companies out there.
Because why would you need to basically pay someone for a managed software application
when you could just push the database into ChatT, or whatever LLN that you want to use,
and just ask the questions, ask it to chart some graphs
for you and so on i think that's where the scary part about this is because in reality a lot of a
lot of what software stocks do or a lot of what software companies do is that they take a bunch
of data sets and be able to present it to you visually or give it to you through an application
you know
you've been saying was kind of ridiculous you know you have things in the spotlight like
salesforce which is pretty much just that i'm not saying that that's actually going to happen
i think salesforce has gotten sold off pretty considerably considering how profitable the
company is how sticky the product is and so on but if we're thinking about maybe some of these
companies actually losing clients the market's going to be nitpicking
for little signs of that actually coming. And then they're going to beat the stock up.
For example, you saw Confluent host a pretty bad quarter in terms of its guidance. Confluent is a
data streaming product built from an open source Kafka, which a lot of companies do use, including
Netflix and OpenAI.
And then you saw the news on the same day that they released their earnings when they were already down about 10, 15%, OpenAI pretty much ditched using Confluent altogether.
You have elite engineers in these companies, some of them being offered billions of dollars
just to work for their company, able to take the
extraction of an open source product and then configure it in-house and then start using
that in-house for pretty much zero cost if you don't include the cost of engineers in
the company.
Now, that in itself is probably what's fueling the scare with a lot of these companies.
But I would still argue that Confluent set aside, Confluent isn't exactly a profitable company.
You take a company like Monday.com, I believe that that was mispriced just this morning
when it was trading at the low $170.
And now it's over here, it's bouncing off of that level, coming up to about $180.
Those companies probably present a much better opportunity when they're fundamentally
sound.
They're likely not going to be impacted as heavily or anytime soon when it comes to the
AI wave that's coming, which is a future, I'm like to say, tsunami.
And I think the company is going to continue to still produce positive cash flows and positive
income margins.
I don't know.
Maybe it might happen sometime from now.
I think eventually it probably will.
But the question is a matter of when, not if.
Okay, a lot of these companies are going to be gone in like five years.
There's not really going to be any motive to it,
especially if a lot of their clients are small business
where they can easily just extract whatever software they use
and just switch over.
You have your big conglomerates.
By the way, Pharma just got a headline.
Apparently, the tariffs might be a couple more weeks delayed or something.
We'll see, but I'm seeing that headline right now.
Continue, Sam.
That's interesting.
But then you have Salesforce, where almost every single organization uses them
and basically builds integration with all of their products
and applications to communicate with Salesforce.
You can't exactly
just stop using Salesforce. That's going to take some time. So I think a lot of these companies
are sold off pretty prematurely at intense speed. And then, of course, you have the alpha in the
market being chased. Leaders tend to lead and so on. Money is going to be rotated out of losers,
added to leaders because it's generally how Wall Street works. And you're going to continue to have
that momentum and downward selling pressure on the laggards.
So couple all that together, that's probably the reason why you saw a fierce sell-off in a lot of these software companies.
Now, we did just get some news today as far as NVIDIA reporting that it's going to be delaying its Rubin chips,
which is basically the next line of chips after Blackwell,
because they want to redesign it to be more competitive with the MI450s,
I believe, from AMD.
I think that selling NVIDIA in that fear is pretty much blasphemy.
The leader is always going to be NVIDIA.
AMD is not going to catch up.
I don't think Jensen Wang is afraid
that Lisa Su is going to come over
and build a better chip.
However, I think he's going to take his time
and redesign it because one,
that delivery date is not for quite some time.
But two, Blackwell is already pretty high margins.
So why wouldn't you redesign your chips
and then that way it won't cost you as much internally
so you can account for this 15%
and somehow make this up in the future?
I think there's obviously a strategy
with what Jensen Wong's trying to do.
And to be completely honest,
NVIDIA did not come out the press release
about that one yet.
That was just from a notable article online.
But at the same time, even if that does happen,
I don't think that means that NVIDIA
is going to lose its lead.
NVIDIA will always be the lead, but AMD does not need that much market share in order to see a much profitable
upheaval in its revenue as well as its bottom line. So, I mean, Lisa Su got CEO of the year
for a reason. I think she's going to continue to kill it. The stock was definitely mispriced in
the 80s last April. Obviously, it's run up quite a bit since then, recovered more than its earnings
fall last week when it was down in the 150s. Now it's in the 185s at a 52-week high. The leaders
are going to continue to lead. You see it today, though. There are some smaller names in the market
that caught a lot of tailwind that are actually giving back a little bit of some profit-taking,
like Nevis, for example. That was down about 6%, 7% today. But that was likely on the back of the
Coral Reve news that came out yesterday with its earnings, that Coral Reve was pretty much downward revising their, I believe they cut their full year guidance.
Actually, no, they increased their full year guidance, but they did cut their capex.
The capex is pretty important because that's going to basically show the demand for data centers.
So I think a lot of people who are pumping up Nebius in terms of short-term gains and so on, started to take some profits in
that fear. I mean, this is definitely good for long-term shareholders who want to add more.
I'm not going to personally add in this level, but I'm looking to add maybe in the low 50s or
below the 50s again. But with that being said, there's definitely a volatile market,
and it's definitely lopsided. It's definitely skewed toward certain sectors and so on, but
I don't necessarily see a pullback really happening
to any large degree anytime soon. You have the fundamental backdrop that the Fed has a 95%
chance of cutting rates in fall. And then like Ali was saying, you have some people speculating
this can be around two to three rate cuts for the entire year. So that means you either get
one rate cut for the rest or you get two rate cuts in September and then one and so on.
If that happens, I think IWM is probably just getting started in that case.
Obviously, we've all been faked out with IWM many, many times, myself included.
And of course, the time when I don't go long IWM is, of course, when it makes its run.
But we'll see what happens with that one.
But at the same time, bullish IPO today at a 15 billion dollar valuation when i was originally
supposed to be evaluation 37 5.4 billion like this this is getting a little uh this is getting a
little wild you know i'm not trying to knock anybody that uh picked up 19 shares this morning
from robin hood but uh you know congratulations on that one but at the same time i want to make
a comment here too on this one actually i did get 19 shares
and i'm not going to sell any of this one and i want to tell you why i first of all i don't believe
in investing in ipos really if i really like a company i'm going to wait till it's down 35 50
and that's been a good area otherwise i'm just going to kind of avoid it for a little bit it's
generally treated me pretty well uh it's silly season, so we're going to watch it.
This bullish IPO, what they did differently
than all these other IPOs is they gave 6 million
out of their 30 million shares to retail,
which I believe is the highest percentage of the year,
but is one of the higher ones.
And so I would love to see this IPO, you know,
perform a little better than the other ones,
more from like a business selfish decision that they're like, Hey, we want to give more to retail because of this, and this IPO
closed the day now, like below whatever, and it just dumped hard over the next couple of days,
do you think that's probably less shares to retail shareholders?
Do you think that's why? Because it's retail taking profit?
Yeah, well, I bet you part of this move is retail taking profit. It is acting a little bit
differently. Some of these ones have held up a little bit more but that initial pop i mean we're still 2x higher
so this is still fine we'll see but um you know i'm rooting for it i'm gonna hold my shares i also
if silly season is here on robin hood and you like sell within like whatever they count they
count you as a flipper and you you won't get an IPO for 60 days. We'll see. But yeah, I got 19 shares.
We'll see.
But that was one thing I just...
And listen, if anybody is here,
investor relations works at a company going public,
we would love to have you on the space.
There you go.
There you go.
I mean, it is IPO season.
But at the same time, you know,
FIG holds much more of a fundamentally sound bullish case than than the owner of coin
desk but it is backed by peter thiel so that does mean something also i think you're you're saying
earlier too that uh it's likely kathy wood's gonna be adding that to the etf since they're
part of that and also blackrock is likely gonna add that as well but you know at the same time
um you know you have circle pulling back i think's about 50% from its high after its IPO.
CoreWeave has pulled back quite a bit since its top peak after its IPO.
There was actually an IPO that I did take part of.
Not when it IPO, but I waited until the price pulled back.
And that was Rubrik, ticker symbol RBRK, which is the leading platform in data security or cybersecurity.
And that didn't take long for it to fizzle out.
Mind you, this was 2024 in May, right before we had that pullback.
So that was when I got in that one.
But yeah, I mean, with a lot of these companies,
you're going to get the excitement, the hype as soon as it IPOs.
And that's usually when the traders come in.
And it's just extremely volatile.
Some of them, you never see that price again.
But some of them do end up showing their hand later on. Once the hype starts to wear off and reality starts kicking after an earnings or two
like if you're really bullish years though look at like hood yeah look at hood and i bet you even
palantir you look at this one in facebook and all these other ones look at that big cup that that
robin hood did and look at this explosion it's's out of it. I don't know. It
kind of fits that weight pullback strategy. We'll see what ends up happening. Doesn't mean it's
going to pull back right now. I mean, 2022 was like more of a macro thing than like a hood
centric problem. However, no one kind of expected Vlad to come out and just release a multitude of
products on the line and pretty much revolutionize or continue to revolutionize investing and trading
as it already is today. You know, that that was kind of unforeseen when they went to ipo around 45 bucks
in 2021 but yeah 2022 was uh more of a macro disaster than anything probably less than the
fundamentals that that did impact them but not to that not to the degree which should have been
trading in single digits below oh no they also that's pretty they had the um they had the the
whole game stop stuff, which definitely
did affect them a little bit more than anything else.
That was big for them around that time, which definitely hurt them a lot.
And honestly, it was a big reputational thing.
And that's like, that's kind of a lot of with brokers.
So they made a good comeback.
One thing I do want to say, we're coming up towards the close here.
We don't have that, that many earnings.
We do have a Cisco earnings and I don't want to like speak it into exist or whatever but like if this stock does
have a little move up like let's say a 10 15% move that would be new all-time
highs and this isn't some stock that went live or whatever this is a dot-com
bubble name this we would be touching the dot-com high if we had a big like a
big move I think it's 80 something wolfie set his hand up for a while, though,
so we'll go over his way.
Cisco earnings coming up after the close.
I just wanted to say, Evan,
I did own Cisco in 2000.
Nice.
Did you own it in 2001 as well?
Oh, fuck no.
Okay, well, there you go.
That's a little better.
What's up, Wolfie?
Okay, Boomer.
so I was just really,
really,
I mean,
I mean,
this is what it is.
I don't know.
Just real quick on what,
Sam was saying.
There is a disconnect between when,
like,
let's say you have a company that's going to get priced out of,
based off of AP,
AI in the next 5 10 years whatever
there's still a disconnect between now and when that actually happens and then a lot of times
you'll get these you know these sell-offs and these disconnects in the market that set up
opportunities for for trades so one of those names that people have been talking about has been was
duolingo and they sold it off going into the earnings print uh that company
actually reported better than expected earnings and then the company gapped up and then they sold
it off on the back of earnings especially after that gpt5 um uh release where they actually
modeled the game whatever um stocks down 35 today below where, where it started from going into the earnings
print, went right into a key level, kind of set up a floor.
You got like this, uh, red to green reversal.
And then there was a disconnect between, you know, where it was this morning and just it's
five and 20 day of about 14% or 15%.
So, you know, just to kind of speak to what Sam said, you know, are some of these companies
going to go away? Sure. Will things get ahead of themselves in a short term, give you opportunity
to take trades? Yeah. And I think this is one of those examples on a short term basis just for a
trade. And then from there, if you believe like in the CRMs, or if you're in the weeds, like Sam is,
you probably have a better grasp of, you know take your shot, where the market might be dislocating something that would be sticky and last through all of this AI stuff.
So I just kind of want to throw that in there on the back of what he said.
Speaking of the weeds, we haven't talked about it at all.
The weed stocks.
What a week.
MSOS up 62%.
I just wanted to make sure we got that mentioned in there.
We don't have to talk about it.
Nice transition. Yeah, right? we got that mentioned in there. We don't have to talk about it. Nice transition.
Yeah, right? It just felt too good there.
But yeah, and I looked. It was up another
12% today.
We can continue on that. Sorry.
You just set it up too well.
I guess I killed the conversation.
It happens. It happens.
No, no, you're're good i just don't have
anything to add on the week front it's just so got two weeks one away i listen so i am i was
looking back at my largest port my largest like i i used to post like here's my top 10 holdings
now i just make my portfolio portfolio available to you in real time um and at one or two points
cgc was on it now listen it
never got up to the top five or ten nvidia and and there are some some good winners on top of it
but yes cgc was there that was the one that i got bagged on evan 20 years from now you'll be
telling people just like i did on cisco you owned it back then you think cgc is going to be big i
think it's gonna be dead i hope so i don't want
to think about it anymore but it's okay my big thing is it's just cheaper to buy the illegal
stuff until they crack down the legal stuff you're basically getting tourists by buying these
companies weeds not fully wrong you excited is that is that financial advice
all right top top five favorite illegal spots get your weed
all right we were going to swiftly move on mexico oh
there you go oh so that's why you moved down there this is this is a crazy point
now let's move on uh norwood i don't want to move on from that Now let's move on. No, no, no.
I don't want to move on from that one.
Let's hear some facts.
This is a dangerous...
Yeah, no.
We're joking.
We're joking.
We're joking.
Evan, there's a big Apple story.
Have you guys ever seen Narcos?
Yes.
I watched the first season of one of them
and I got off of it.
There was a big...
What a couple days Apple has.
I actually...
I wanted to say this. I rolled
my Apple calls that I bought live
on these spaces. I bought the 230s
September 19th.
I bought them...
I'd have to go back and look, but I rolled them today
up into the...
up to the 240s.
Let me tell you what happened.
So, these calls
bought live on the spaces because of all of the Apple
slander that was happening. Okay, so I bought three calls for six hundred dollars and then i um that was the
230s 919s and i bought them on june 26th and then we just ended up rolling up into the 240s
and i brought in 1500 i believe well we'll show this on another place
but Apple calls rolled up that actually really did not go well um so well the trade went well
let me explain it didn't swiftly move on um any anyone want to say any nice things about Apple
people that normally say mean things uh I mean, I hope they're successful with this massive CapEx injection into a robot line.
I hope.
DocTalk.
I don't know.
That was a nice.
Never mind.
Sorry.
DocTalk, you bullish?
You buying?
We're going to $250?
Am I buying Apple?
But yeah, I mean, tabletop, robot,
I don't even know what that's supposed to be.
I don't know what that means fully, too.
Were they the company that were...
What is it going to do, like, move your cup out of the way on the table?
Like, I don't do anything on tables that requires robotic intervention.
Are you kidding me?
You sit at your desk all day trading.
What if you had a personal arm to be like...
To do what?
To move the microphone?
To brush your shoes.
Which do everything around you. To click buttons on
my like to do what?
I don't know dude.
If somebody were telling me like hey if a genie were to
pop up right now and the genie was like
hey I will build you a tabletop
robot to do whatever you want I literally
would not be able to explain a use case for a tabletop robot for a household.
Can anyone, I mean, I'm not being facetious here,
can anyone explain to me a use case for a tabletop robot that they would be wowed by?
A lot of people want them to move the mouse so that way it appears they're at their desk when they're not.
Yeah, I mean, exactly.
Other than silly use cases,
like, what would a tabletop robot do?
Is it going to mix your drink for you?
Is it going to be a bartender?
Is it going to make your protein shake?
A tabletop robot that serves as a virtual companion
is the word there.
Yeah, so what the hell does that mean?
Sounds like they're giving these chatbots a body.
On a tabletop?
On a little tabletop.
It sounds like we're getting Teletubbies with AI Teletubbies.
But what is that going to do?
But that can move and dance and stuff, dude.
I don't understand.
I don't know where we're going.
I read the full article and I do not understand.
I don't know why they didn't just buy Perplexity.
I don't know. It's so much buy Perplexity. I don't know.
They still buy Perplexity.
Now it's $2 billion more.
They're talking to raise there, and you never know.
Bullish went public at a $5 billion IPO price.
A couple years ago, they were going to $20.
I work with Perplexity a little bit, so I'm biased.
Keep bringing it higher.
They're wanting to revamp.
Sorry, I'm on my personal'm on my market close by the way
we almost yeah we almost got we almost got rugged but we saved it uh but the the security device
thing was a little bit interesting to me though uh if they make a competing device for like ring
and all that but it works seamlessly with all of your iphone and Mac stuff, like more seamlessly with your iCloud,
that might be something.
But what would you do with it?
Here's what I think, though.
Has anyone really broken into this?
What are these really examples of real-world AI in the home
that's like it just works and stuff like that,
and these robots and stuff like that?
Where is that going,
and what are going to be these
companies that really break into the first mass market in-house robot device i'm not saying this
is that maybe amazon or other breaching into it but maybe that's kind of what their their play is
here and when you're thinking about like ai through a chatbot yeah it'd be it'd be kind of crazy for
apple to come in and be like all right apple chop Apple chatbot, don't worry. We're not five years behind.
Here's why.
Do you understand why I'm confused?
Yeah.
There is no – what mechanical necessity does a tabletop robot serve other than your phone, which you can already talk to an AI on?
Like if I want –
It would have to be like it helps you to be like, it helps you do,
like, if you're a parent, it's going to help you do something if your hands are full or
if you, but we'll be like, help me imagine here.
What your hands are full with the kids.
Let's say when someone calls you and you need to pick it up or I don't know.
It'd have to be something like that.
It would have to be, I don't disagree.
And, or it would have to be, maybe they transition or it would have to be maybe they transition it for you know people who have dexterity issues because they're old or because
they're uh they've got some sort of degenerative diseases like that that's the way i view it i
don't think this is going to be like a like a you me and everybody on here that that we just
don't think it's going to be mass market i don't it would have to be mass market for a certain age an age group but or but there's you know there's other things like it there's yeah
there's there's other things that i could suggest that it could be but it's like not suitable for
work but that would be just like kind of satirical listen i won't lie i did think that only fans will
never be the same but we can move off of it i i just don't
think we need to get caught up on tabletop if they're actually doing so i don't think it's
going to be i mean that's what they said though but that's what they did originally well i didn't
see that today but that is what they originally said right it was tabletop robot but i that that
don't that does sound dumb but if they're trying to get into it to evan's point they're trying to
get into some type of like home ai type
of system maybe there's a market for that because because everyone else is doing everything else
maybe they're what is the home ai type of system well i i feel like it would be whatever if you
imagine what alexa does and take that to the next level and then if why do they need a robot to do
that i don't well that's what that's what i'm
imagining okay was it a vacuum shut up and accept it shut up and accept it apple innovation is back
that's right i mean i'm just asking very basic questions and and i think but can i here's the
point though no the fact that no one has an answer for me and oh there's very smart people on this
panel and the fact that no one has like a real world answer for me is a corroboration to what i'm saying which is that i don't think that apple really knows what
they're doing here either what if it's like an optimist what if it's an actual what if it's an
actual robot though that follows you around carries your laundry behind you up the stairs
maybe a humanoid yeah that's that's the only way i can positively spin this for you evan
yeah if they're building a humanoid, yeah, game on.
Humanoids will be a thing because you don't need to.
The thing with humanoids that people don't understand is there was actually a form factor argument about this, too.
Originally, people were like, why does it need to be in a humanoid form factor?
And the answer is actually quite simple, because you don't need to change anything about global infrastructure if you build it like a human.
It can walk through the doors that are already built.
It can walk up the staircases that are already built.
It can interact with things that are built for human hands already,
like refrigerator doors and cell phones and computers.
That's why the humanoid form factor is so conducive,
because you don't need any infrastructure investment.
You build the robot,
you deploy it in the real world, and it can engage with the real world because the real world's already built for humans. That's why humanoid form factor makes sense. A tabletop form factor,
like for fucking what? For what? It's going to sit on your table and you're going to talk to it?
You can already do that with your laptop or your iPhone with an AI. You could turn on AI voice mode, put your iPhone in the center
of your table while you're cleaning the kitchen or whatever, and talk to it and have it assist you,
right? So, yes, humanoid form factor is the only form factor that makes sense. And then
when you look at like deliveries, autonomous delivery, like that use case, well, you need a
bucket on basically a cooler on four wheels, which is what all the delivery robots look use case, well, you need a bucket on basically a cooler on four wheels,
which is what all the delivery robots look like now.
Right.
They're like, if you look at AV rides, robots from Nebius, it's just like refrigerator,
basically not refrigerator, but a cooler on wheels.
Because that form factor makes the most sense for food because you don't need anything else.
So outside of humanoids and four wheelwheeled robots like maybe robotic arms and factories
that's been a thing Berkshire Gray started doing that like four or five years ago that'll probably
continue to be a thing but like those outside of those three and maybe if you want to include the
new era of personal compute with like these this vision-based computer people wearing glasses smart
glasses you can I guess throw that in there but that's four form factors smart glasses robotic arms delivery bots on four wheels and
humanoid robots I don't see room for anything else practically I mean it's gonna be we're gonna find
things out and somebody might come be ready to have your mind blown by Tim Cook listen that's
what I'm saying wait wait and see I think Tim Cook is a great financial engineer and
Robin Hood by the way Robin Hood just released some monthly metrics is it
moving I don't know Robin Hood this go earnings revenue 14.7 billion versus $14.6. EPS, $0.99 versus $0.91.
See down.
A little bit.
I really did want to see it get to that dot-com bubble high.
That's such a good tweet.
This goes down 3%.
It might come back.
It might come back.
Because you didn't buy calls on it.
It would have gone up.
You've got a hot hand right now.
I do.
Listen, I love bull markets
because even I get to look smart for a while.
Funded customers at the end of July
was $26.7 million for Robinhood,
up $160,000 from June,
so up 26.5.
Total platform assets, $2988 billion up 7% from June but
obviously markets been what it was nice what's the market to in July
yeah it's pretty good I guess if it's not moving we we won't talk too into it.
But Robinhood did just release some monthly metrics for July.
I'm going to dig into that.
The numbers look good.
Don't worry about Robinhood.
Margin balance at the end of July was $11.4 billion up 20 from june guys listen i know
it's good for robin hood stock but let's not let's not let's not sometimes margin is good
so i guess it was good but god you're not gonna be stopped people from doing that by saying that i know we're up 20 month over month
yeah people i mean stock margin is just too easily and readily available and people don't
like perceive it as real money everything's been gamified so you know modern brokerages
are just gamified trading and investing it's going to be really hard to shake that perception
especially for new traders in like
their 20s and 30s like i mean i know people that are really frugal in their real life and throw
around hundreds of thousands of dollars on their brokerage account like flippantly uh because it's
gamified you know and they don't like you know they they won't order a five dollar coffee in
real life but they'll put like a hundred thousand dollars in a stock they've never heard of without thinking so that's just par for the course as far as like
modern yep psychology of like the younger generation goes everyone's like very risk tolerant
and i mean frankly speaking they've been rewarded for it in the last five years at least especially
for new market participants who have come in during covid like they've been rewarded for risk
tolerance they've been rewarded for holding through the corrections,
buying the dip, staying long.
And so until the market punishes that behavior,
you're going to see that behavior accelerate.
I mean, it's pretty simple, straightforward game theory and logic, right?
Like we have new highs on retail accounts every year.
We have new highs on percentage household participation every year.
We have more and more money in those retail accounts every year. Assets under management for these free commission-free
brokerages are growing quarter over quarter constantly. Why? That means the accounts are
going up that they're overseeing. So they're doing well. I mean, are there retail traders
out there that are blowing up? Yeah, I'm sure. But broadly speaking, if you look at the data,
if you look at Robinhood and Weeble's data,
which is probably the most important, they're doing well.
I feel so smart right now investing.
It's easy to feel like that.
That's what I'm saying.
If we're taking it, I know we hate these empirical or whatever,
these one-off things.
Once I start to feel like a genius in the market,
we're pretty deep into this bull market,
and pretty much just anything's working.
It's an easier market.
It's been an easy market for the last couple of years.
Since April, though.
Last month.
Yeah, recoveries tend to be aggressive.
I wouldn't phrase the recovery action from April to now
as like... I don't want I wouldn't phrase the recovery action from April to now as like
I don't say it's not overextended because you know shorter timeframes it things are overextended, but
it's
action is different when you put it in the context of
action post drawdown versus action like outside of a base or outside of a bull market like
if stocks go up for three years and then go up again that's one thing versus having periods like
2022 where you get a lot of froth removal or having periods like earlier this year where you
get a lot of froth removal yeah there's stocks that have doubled off the lows from april and
there are other stocks that have gone lower so you know, there's moments, and I feel like now the difference
is now in like the modern market is maybe these moments happen faster. Like maybe there's
these collisions happen faster where, you know, you wipe out 30, 40, 50% of market cap in these
names quickly. You stop out basically everyone who bought in the two or three months prior,
and then the stock turns around
and you've seen a lot of that you know even in really popular names like you know even in names
like tesla you've seen that you know even in names like amazon frankly you've seen that so
there have been it's not just been a characteristic of small shitty names it's been a characteristic
of a lot of stocks in the last three to four years where, yeah, net net they've trended higher.
If you look at the ROI on a three year basis, you'll scratch your head and be like, oh, my God, why don't I just hold this thing?
But if you zoom in and look at the action, you know, you see why so many people have been shaken out of them.
So I don't think this is a market where just everyone's holding everything and watching it go up 300 percent i think moments like april moments like years like 2022
um you know moments like the 210 to 15 drawdowns we had last year uh those moments scare a lot of
people out because they think oh you know what this mega bull market might finally be coming to
an end and then it resolves higher again and again and again and you know you get these very hated
rallies i don't know if this one is one of them
because of what happened earlier this year i don't know if this is as hated as people are
portraying it to be but yeah i mean it's been it's been an easy market but it's also been
a market where you have to have a stomach sort of volatile market too right so yeah if you're a if
you're a no touch i buy stocks and don't sell anything investor then
yeah it's been very fucking easy because you know those people tend to not worry about short-term
price action as much um but if for people who are trying to capture like thematic alpha or
capture like catalysts or capture any of that stuff it has been tricky because you have to know
when to call it.
You know, I was going to say that suck talk because if you're an active investor like
you, you buy and sell often or obviously if you're a trader, I feel like this float higher
has been pretty difficult.
I mean, at first, yeah, it was pretty easy, probably through May and June.
Once you got into July and you just kept going with no real dips at all in the market, I
feel like it's been tough for at least for a trader and active investor.
Yeah, exactly.
Or even if you're an active investor and you're trying to size into stocks that you have high conviction in, for me, trying to size into some of my winners was very difficult because they just got away from me.
Price got away from me.
They went up too fast.
That's a good problem to have.
I'm not complaining about that.
But it makes it difficult if you're like a positional swing trader slash investor like I am, where I have like, you know, 10 to 15 positions at a given time, sometimes more.
Earlier in this year, I had a lot more than that.
When you're managing that many positions and you're sort of trying to find your spots to sell into, to add into a market where you grind higher on the indexes and you see like variant action from industry to industry, that makes it tricky.
So, yeah, you do have to time things well. And, you know, there's things I could have handled better this year. There's things I could have handled worse.
have handled better this year there's things i could have handled worse but i mean you know i'm
up even after today's to ellie you had a big pullback today on the offering like 13 even after
today's pullback my portfolio was only down like 1.3 off of that from the highs so i'm still at
basically 130 return year to date and i'm happy with the way i managed things if i had if i'd
sold some stuff in a more timely fashion or i'd trim some stuff at more timely spots, could I have been at a higher return than that?
Yeah. But at the end of the day, my goal is to outperform the market as an active investor.
I don't think it's worth being active if you're not.
So I'm fine with the way things have been going.
Broadly speaking, though, I will say that I think the back half of the year will be trickier now that we've gotten these earnings sneezes out of the way.
I think from a stock picking standpoint, the back half of the year will be trickier.
And the front half of this year from a stock picking standpoint was trickier than last year, I think.
I think last year was a very easy stock picking year.
I think the front half of this year was a little harder.
little harder. And I think the back half of this year will be even a little harder still.
And I think the back half of this year will be even a little harder still.
And assuming the economy doesn't cave going into Q4 this year or into Q1 or Q2 of next year,
that I think the first half of next year will be even harder yet again. So I just think markets
are getting a little bit narrower in terms of the super performing stocks as some of these themes
fizzle out. And I think you'll have to have an ability to differentiate the names, especially in those hot themes, if you do want to retain some of your gains.
And, you know, I think even today you had a lot of thematic trades.
I mean, nuclear was weak today.
We had a lot of thematic trades sort of unwind in the middle of the day.
Quantum tried to get hot in the back half of the session.
I think RGTI popped up red to green like 10%, and then those names faded as well.
So there was a lot of favoritism in action today, certainly,
for a lot of the neglected names,
even though the indexes were materially higher.
You know, just in general,
when I was looking through my portfolio,
Apple, nice and green. Apple, nice and green.
Disney, nice and green.
PayPal, nice and green.
All these other names down.
Yeah, the leaders took a break today.
But also, I feel like in some of those days,
maybe these other names wouldn't be so green, but I don't know.
Yeah, I think it's good to see that, though.
I think it's good to see wide-needed action, you know?
Yeah.
I had named, like, okay, so I have a position in Lyft.
It's not a big position for me, but I have a position in Lyft,
and that's, like, sort of a contrarian name.
Ooh, Bumble's down big in After Hours.
What's happening there?
I don't know.
Do they have earnings?
No, the C... No, but...
The notification was down 10%.
Oh, that's a Hamid name, right?
Yeah, I bought some.
I bought some.
Not to like...
Oh, down 20...
Okay.
At one point, someone did come up here and say, like,
I love Snapchat, and then it just dips, and it was a rough time.
But they stuck with it.
Great guy.
But there's something happening here with Bumble.
What happened?
I don't know.
It's down 10% after hours.
I'm trying to figure it out.
Are you sure it's not a low volume?
Is it?
It could be.
It was up 10% today.
It's down 10%.
It's weird.
No, it's not low volume. It's high-aft. It might have 10% today. It's down 10%. It's weird. No, it's not low volume.
It's high F.
It might have been a volume.
I mean, for after hours, there's a lot of orders hitting the tape.
Yeah, something's going on.
I don't see any news hits on Bumble, though, so I don't know what to tell you.
We can move on.
Sorry.
I'm just going to look for it.
Sorry.
Sometimes, Robin had sent me a notification.
It was down 10.
It was a great day for it.
It was a wonderful day.
Lyft is kind of recovering as well.
We've talked about it.
I'm seeing, I think,
Google to invest in Oklahoma.
Wall Street Engine down below.
He's posting that.
One day, Wall Street Engine
will come up here
and be the new squawker.
Now it's at 12.
It's got gotta be this gotta be like a share offering or something
what are we doing here
it's something that somebody
knows about that's selling in advance of it
because I don't see it on any news feeds
we can let it go I'm sorry I'll look
but no you're fine I mean
I'm curious too i don't have
a position but now that you brought it up oh there you go offers shares at 633 to 654 each in block
why haven't i seen it yet that place isn't doing it okay let's try this well that's that's the
headline it's from bloomberg uh bumble holders offer shares at $633 to $654 in block.
Is it selling shareholders or the company itself?
I don't know.
It's just a headline.
I don't have an article.
But it's from Bloomberg.
That's not a fake headline.
There's a pretty big difference between if it's from selling shareholders
or for the company itself.
I don't know.
Somebody loaded up on the $7 calls
15 minutes into the news, though.
Sometimes somebody doesn't know.
No, dude.
Somebody thinks they do.
A lot of times people will just assume that
because it looks like somebody's putting millions of dollars
into a directional options trade, that they're definitely
going to be right. That's not always the case yeah i mean would you buy something that's
23 cents out of the money for 10 cents no one with the two minutes before the close i mean
usually that doesn't happen but who knows right who knows yeah who knows sometimes people do know
i mean we definitely see that too so there's headline, Bumble holders offer shares at up to 11.5% discount.
Bitcoin's absolutely ripping face right now.
It's almost at 123.
Cryptos in general, Ethereum has been...
Tom Lee.
I don't know.
I won't lie.
There was a moment on
whatever it is, on BMNR, that I
doubted there for a second, but
I mean, I guess the rising tide lifts
boats here. Ethereum is just
going
as well. I mean, I guess BMNR ended up closing
red.
Cost base is 40-42
on that one a little trade
oh yeah stock market use is looking good in the market
i'll do something about the market we'll see
kevin you wanna you got any thoughts you wanna any topics that were top of mind for you
we talked i love you buddy we talked, I love you, buddy.
We talked enough commodities this week.
I'm commodity doubt.
Okay.
All right.
So let's talk about soybeans.
No, I'm just kidding.
Even though soybeans have been higher.
No, look, today was actually, I mean, if you're looking at market participation or breadth in the market,
it was probably one of the stronger days that we've seen in a very long time.
The S&P equal weight was finished up 1.3% today, right? If you're
looking at the NASDAQ equal weight or NDX equal weight, that was up 0.8% today. So it was just
some of the larger cap names or mega cap names kind of pulled us lower or just didn't allow us
to kind of continue the swing to the upside as aggressively as we may have hoped at the start of today's session.
Nice little squeeze breaking above that 64-60 level going into the close there as well.
You did see some buyers stepping in.
But yeah, I think I got the tail end of what Stock Talk was talking about here,
but it wasn't thematic names that were actually hitting.
I mean, outside of homebuilders,, home builders are killing it right now.
And I mean, the pricing rate cuts, they got to be pricing in something else.
If you look at the XHB, I think it was like on a tear.
I mean, it barely had any down candles today.
But you just had a bunch of stocks, value names actually outperforming, doing fairly well here today.
It's just kind of looking at maybe some of these names that are a little bit undervalued.
Right. And we just have a rotation trade that just took place here today.
And that's OK. Right. And I actually like seeing that you have a rotation, you have market breadth kind of expanding out.
We're able to hold key levels in the S&P 500.
And then we have days where we have concentration, which really kind of pushes
price up fairly aggressively.
So as long as we do not see net net outflows in the S&P 500 in the market just in general,
I think that's actually a positive, at least for now.
Volatility wise, VIX down today, VVIX, vol of vol, actually up.
We usually don't see them diverge for that long, maybe a day or
two, and then one of them usually re-rates higher. Usually it's the VIX actually re-rating higher,
and that also kind of aligns with several things, right? We have VIX expiration next week. We have
a monthly options expiration on Friday, but we have VIX expiration on Wednesday of next week, last trading day on
Tuesday. So you're going to see an uptick in VIX options trading just in general, but you did
actually see some key flows. And I like to follow flows here. And there was a significant amount of
trading in the $20 calls for the September expiration. That's not surprising. Once you
get to a 14, 14 and a half V vix or so you're probably going to see some
individuals starting to nibble but just knowing that v vix and vix kind of saw that divergence
is something that's kind of telling and in fact I actually have a chart here I can tell you the
last two times that we actually saw this event actually occurring here the first time that we
saw this is back in January basically between January 15th through January 22nd, right after that vol spiked briefly.
Doesn't mean the market had to sell off 20,000% or whatever.
And then the last time that we had that is back in around February, where we actually did sell off pretty aggressively.
But obviously, we had some other news catalysts that were there.
So I just kind of go back and look at the term structure and volatility.
Right now, there's the normalization of the curve or the contango, if you will, still looks decent.
But if you are concerned or you want to be able to hedge a position or if you're trying to play a downside move,
probably playing a downside move going long puts only is probably not the best route to go
maybe it is maybe it isn't just because you have a lot of theta burn and you still have
the upward momentum from a technical standpoint but if you look at vol structure trades you know
calendars diagonals things of that nature those trades in this type of environment tend to do fairly well in some
respects, depending on how you set those up. So that's what I'm looking at on the fall front.
But I like the participation in the broad market right now. There's a name that's been hated on
for a very long time. And I like looking at stocks of companies that no one loves and everybody hates on, but slowly is actually consolidating and doing a really good job price action wise.
So if you take a look at Lockheed Martin, the reason why I bring this up today is this is not a recommendation.
Obviously, we saw the stock sell off pretty aggressively.
We had a consolidation taking place here.
I believe that the weekly MACD is now
in a bullish formation. I'll check that. But the reason why I bring this one up for those that
trade technicals, it is actually testing its gap right now. MACD is in a bullish formation on the
daily. And I would say on the weekly, it's got to be fairly close, pretty close, another two weeks
or so. But it is testing a gap. And so there's a void in volume on the volume profile here.
You can have really aggressive price action either to the upside or downside, but it is trying to fill that gap.
So that's actually very interesting to me.
RTX is also another one in the defense space.
Obviously, it's been doing a phenomenal job.
Doing a phenomenal job.
It does not look like Lockheed Martin.
Does not look like Lockheed Martin.
What's actually very interesting with this one, if you look at the daily chart, it's basically testing the 20-day moving average and has a pretty decent hammer candle today.
CCI kind of in the oversold territory here.
I'm not saying that this is going to be an immediate bounce.
If you look at the trend line right now for a name that has been at the F side. This is another name that's kind of
getting a fair amount of love here. I don't know if I talked about ADM the other day. I think I did.
I think I talked about ADM the other day because I talked about soybeans, which you said that you
don't like, you don't want us to talk about it. But soybeans did actually rip pretty aggressively.
ADM continues to actually rip fairly aggressively. I brought this up on Monday on the network
and it continues to kind of move higher here.
It's up about 2.1% on today's session.
I mean, no one loves-
Why does it have a move in after hours?
Is that just low volume?
I would have to see if there's any news that has come out here.
They've already reported earnings.
So, yeah.
Yeah, this stock is, yeah, it's not something that trades fairly aggressively after hours.
There was another one.
Oh, UNH.
Not a fan, but you can't deny the price action there as well.
Did Warren Buffett buy it?
We're going to find out tomorrow.
I'm kidding.
I don't think he did, but.
Warren Buffett, he's retiring, dude.
You know, he's, he's retiring, dude. You know, he's he's he'll get.
But Berkshire Hathaway, Burt B, is another one that I've been looking at, too.
I don't know what it did today.
Yeah, up 1.4 percent.
That one just got above the 20-day moving average.
MACD just crossed in a bullish formation, CCI over the zero line, which is bullish, testing the 50-day moving average, MACD just crossed in a bullish formation CCI over the zero line, which is bullish testing the 50-day moving average today. So look, it's not the names
that everybody's talking about on FinTwit every single day, because it seems like you got to
own HIMSS or Bibius or whatever. Today was one of those days that you could look at a wide range
of companies that have been consolidating for a very long time and dollars have been put to
work at least for today. We'll see how long that one lasts. Crude oil down to $62 a barrel
is a little concerning to me. We did see some buyers kind of stepping in, but it is starting
to lose its hand here. And I think there's upside risk potential for crude, given the fact that we do have this meeting
between Vladimir Putin and President Trump on Friday,
interested to see what the commentary
is gonna be over the weekend.
That might be an interesting risk trade to the upside here,
but I'm not a fan of crude breaking down.
So that's all I have,
or what I was kind of focusing on today.
I'll kick it back over to you.
I appreciate you.
I enjoy the commodities talk. I do.
I do. I do. I promise.
I promise.
Sometimes.
Seth Barman, by the way, just updated his portfolio.
It is 13F season, like we kind of were talking about there.
Tomorrow is the big day.
There is a PPI tomorrow morning.
There is a retail sales the morning after that.
Is that any macro data?
Mike was kind of talking about the spaces.
I was a little shocked.
Allie was here too.
I was kind of shocked that Jackson Hole is next week.
What are you looking at on the macro data front?
Is there anything interesting for you there?
I would say overseas, you're going to get a lot of data from the European Union.
So they're going to be reporting GDP tomorrow.
So that one, you're expecting 0.1% growth for Q2.
This is the preliminary number.
Let's see if it actually hits that number.
Let's see if it actually hits that number.
I mean, there is a risk that they could actually have a negative print.
That could be the result of tariffs or impending tariffs that the market believes could actually hit the tape here.
We obviously have continuing claims.
You have initial claims tomorrow.
We have PPI, which is not a huge focus, a very volatile number.
We have to be mindful of that.
But PPI, if you're looking at core, is expected to come in at 0.2%, which is actually pretty tame. That's really where you want it to be. But you're looking
at core year over year, inching up to 2.9%. I don't focus on year over year numbers. Some people
do. I focus on month over month. And then either you take a six-month average or a three-month
average of that. That really gives you the clear direction because there's you can have like base effects uh looking at year-over-year uh comps when it comes to ppi
just in general now once again it's a very volatile number but ppi comes in like three different
forms and the two areas that i'm looking at is obviously final goods which is what is the what
the market's looking at right that 0.2 is2% is final goods for PPI, producer price
index. But there's also another category called intermediate goods. And the intermediate goods
are those that are actually, for the most part, in some respects, being tariffed, right? Those
are the goods that are coming in and still need to be processed. They're in the process of becoming a
final good, right? So you're talking about commodities, obviously, you know, I won't go
down that route, but you're also talking about tires and rims for tires and steel for to make
automobiles and whatever, right? so the intermediate goods is actually what would
probably reflect uh the inflationary pressures first rather than final demand so that's the area
that i'm looking at and intermediate demand uh has has been a little bit hot but once again it's been
very volatile but we have not seen it translate into final goods yet which then leads you to believe that businesses are probably eating the
margins for now until they feel confident that they have the pricing pressure to be able to put
on the consumer. So those are the areas that I'm kind of focusing on on the economic calendar. We
have some speakers as well. To my count, I think we have three to four Fed speakers that are looking at 25 basis points, Fed governors, for September.
So I feel like that's pretty much it.
You think any votes for 50?
You think that's the real?
I mean, markets come around 25, so now the best sense of the world are saying 50.
Will any Fed real votes be that way, you think?
We'll see. We'll see if it's going to be 50. I don't know. I don't think it really matters.
I mean, but we are going to get the September, right? So we'll get the summary of economic
projections. So they'll let their voices be heard in the projections. I don't think it really
matters if it's 25 or 50. And I think if you're
looking at the treasury market, maybe equities, but if you're looking at treasuries, I think the
treasury market just knows that we will have a cut and maybe positioning for one of those split
type of decisions or split votes, if you will. Overnight, though, just keep your eye out on this.
out on this so we have china industrial production numbers coming out that's going to be key um
So we have China industrial production numbers coming out. That's going to be key.
markets looking at six percent uh increase your rear growth for that and you have china retail
sales so uh what i have seen over the last couple of trading sessions here is actually options flow
bullish options flow into the china stocks uh i know you guys have seen probably seen it too
but pdd has has really hit the radar there.
So if they actually come in with some pretty decent numbers overnight,
the China names probably could do a pretty good run tomorrow, barring PPI coming in aggressively high.
So that's what I'm looking at on the economic front for pretty much the remainder of this week.
Are you excited that Janet Yellen's name was mentioned today?
Well, yeah, I saw it.
Well, I mean, you know, I'm not going to go down.
Yeah, it doesn't, I mean, it was interesting.
It was interesting, but they're running the same policy.
Interesting things, yeah.
They're running the same policy that Janet Yellen did. So I kind of find that very funny as they were criticizing it on the campaign but they have to do
they have to do that so very interesting some of the names that are being floated out there though
when you're looking at the private space like a rick reader and things of that nature i mean i
think that's another reason probably why bonds actually caught a bit today. You get somebody from the private sector, especially names like that.
I think everybody kind of trusts those individuals and their market knowledge, as well as their ability to make sure that the right things need to be done, regardless of the political pressure.
So yields down today, what, 4.2 percent?
I don't know if you're looking at the 10 year,
but yeah, it was kind of interesting. Oh, we have import export prices as well on Friday. So that
will be interesting. The import prices do not include, and I'm going to post this as well.
So you guys can verify this. The import prices do not include tariffs technically, right?
You're not going to see the added on tariff to those that are being imported, but the
prices could see an increase for companies that are increasing prices in order to offset
those tariffs once it hits here.
So that's one that once again, could be a little bit volatile, but it is a fallationary measure
and that we will have on friday i was leaving it open there see if anyone wanted to jump in off of that
but um bitcoin just ripped uh it's like 300 bucks from all-time high.
I saw Urkel up here.
What is Bitcoin all-time high?
I thought it would be higher than $123.
It's really $123?
$123, $230, depending on which exchange
you look like.
Where did bullish close at?
Was it a bullish day?
It was actually bearish.
Well, no.
It depends where your chart's going from,
but it closed at 70.
And the first trade was 90, right?
But the IPO price was 37.
Yeah.
From the first trade, it was down 22% or so.
Urkel, are you up here on stage?
I'm here.
First off, hope you're doing well. I a tweet so hope everything's good over there on your side glad to hear your voice on the on the space today
just curious uh what you've been trading what you've been looking at and of course whenever i
see you're one of the people that pounded the table on crypto and mstr back in, gosh, when was that? May? Somewhere in there. And here we are.
It's been a fun ride. Yeah. So last week we were talking about Ethereum. I was talking about it at
4,000 or so, looking at a breakout there and I had a target of 4,800. So that's getting really
close and it's very extended. And during that period, it kind of seemed like Bitcoin was the forgotten little brother kind of thing.
But it certainly is making a move today.
I posted a chart this morning on the breakout.
There is a technical breakout.
What was the all-time high?
Sorry, what was the all-time high for Bitcoin?
123 and change, I think.
That's what I have i have 123 like 300 yeah
231 sorry 123 231 is what i have that's based on coinbase yeah that's that sounds about right
so the ethereum target i had was 4800 a bitcoin target i have just based on a 1.618 FIB extension is about $131,000 or so.
And last week when I was on the show, we were talking about BM&R,
and I was talking about it off that 31 area base and the $37 level.
Obviously, that had a significant run now, and it's doubled in a week,
and it's taken a bit of a breather.
I'm still watching that off
the about approximately $64 area. It really needs to have a strong daily close above 64 if it wants
to keep trending higher. Of course, they announced another massive, was it an ATM yesterday or the
day before? I was kind of out of it yesterday for another $2 billion or so.
So, you know, these treasury companies are kind of dilution machines,
and you just have to expect that on the ride.
And we saw MSTR kind of pioneer that back in the day when they started this kind of treasury idea.
So I'm looking at dips on BM&R I do like it in that 50 to 54 range if it lands there
again but if it wants to continue to trend higher as long as it can hold the 64 65 area it could
have some more upside especially if Ethereum can break through the 4800 barrier. I am watching SBET too, S-B-E-T.
I don't know this one as well,
but it is kind of the same style of gameplay,
the treasury style, you know,
dilute buy more Ethereum kind of thing.
That one's been a little bit forgotten.
It could make a really nice sympathy play off 2260.
It's got a really strong support there and it's kind of
back-tested it a couple times this week and held. It looks like it's building a bit of a base off
the 22s and consolidating off the 5, 9 and 20 EMAs on the daily. So if BM&R were to dip or if there
were to be a bit of a break or a pause and they were to go start bidding up a sympathy play or, you know, like a cousin type of play,
SBED could have some significant upside off that 22 to 23 area.
However, with these treasury companies, especially for the newer traders who may not be as aware of risk and risk tolerance you have to just you know play these types of names cautiously
especially during the rally periods we've seen bm and r hit 70 drop to 58 hit 70 and drop to 61
again and if you're on the wrong side of those and if you're over trading these trying to just
catch quick bounces you can easily compound losses on these so pick your spots
carefully but i'm certainly watching both of those still um i'll probably take a little heat for this
but i'm still kind of watching these bitcoin miners this sector is an absolute cancer it's
awful but when they get hot you can catch some pretty decent upside moves.
And a lot of them have fallen off over the last two, three weeks or so. Marathon, Mara's one I
kind of watch. I like to trade it because I'm very familiar with this stock and with its key levels.
So I can get into some pretty low risk trades on it. But it's fallen off from 2150 down to about 15 in recent weeks.
And it's the second largest treasury company Bitcoin holder out there behind MSTR.
And I believe I don't have my numbers in front of me right now, but I believe their Bitcoin
holdings alone would price them in this 15 area.
I'd have to go back and check my notes on that so if bitcoin
were to catch a significant upside push i am watching mara i did actually add some mara this
week around 16 just kind of a speculative trade for me see if i can catch a bit of a curl back
to the upside basing now for two weeks straight off this $15 area so managing that off
kind of the mid low 15s risking three to five percent to see if maybe these catch a bid if
bitcoin can make a significant upside move a few other plays i like so grab this one's a bit of a
fin twit darling i talked about this one off the 480s recently it had a nice push up
to the 550s reported earnings and gap down that one broke out of a base today so it's been basing
between 480 and five dollars for about two weeks it reclaimed the 5 9 and 20 emas today and
established a daily close above the base so i do wonder if this one might have a little bit of upside room this week off the $5 area.
Another one I'm watching is Rocket Labs.
It's been weak since earnings.
It had a big pop to the upside on earnings day.
I think it rallied some 10, 12% up to about $50.
And it's just dropped off ever since.
But on a technical basis,
it's lost all the EMAs, but it's landed at a key trend support level off the 4260 area or so.
It's backtesting a breakout trend line and sitting on some support. Now, I'd be very cautious if the
42s didn't hold on Rocket Labs because it's got some downside room back down into the mid high 30s
But if it can hold this 42 43 area, that's another one. I'm watching to see if they start bidding up again, too
Lastly I'm watching AMD
I love the back test on AMD off the 161 level that was a key fib level
It held post earnings and it gapped up today,
which I don't personally love.
But it's got a big resistance level
at 186.
That was my personal target.
And it had a nice push today
before fading a bit,
but bounced back off 180.
So if AMD can hold 186, 187
or at least claim and hold it, that does have room up to 200 to 220 range or so.
So that's another one I'm watching for a bit of a secondary breakout, if you will, if it can kind of trend above the 186, 187 level.
So those are a few stocks things I'm watching.
few stocks things I'm watching. I thought I really loved the point Stock Talk made earlier today
where, and you know, a lot of the experienced traders are keenly aware of this, that the easy
mode in the markets has gone. You know, SPY and QQQ continue to trend higher. That's kind of the,
you know, the easy trade, if you will. But a lot of the hot stocks recently are are finding resistance and are a
lot more volatile than they were for the first couple months post the trump tariff tantrum if
you will for lack of better terms so finding those key entries for swing traders has been a little
more challenging but if you identify by some good stocks post earnings that have had you know strong
performance just back testing some support levels some of which i shared today i think there's still by some good stocks post earnings that have had strong performance,
just backtesting some support levels, some of which I shared today,
I think there's still a decent amount of upside to capture an individual name.
So I'm focusing on crypto for the rest of the week.
That kind of sounds like a broken record saying that. But just with Bitcoin and Ethereum both coming into resistance here,
both breaking out this week.
If they can break through through their all-time highs, we might see a pretty decent crypto rally into the end of the week.
So my apologies for hogging the mic a little bit, but that's just kind of where I'm at currently.
Appreciate you, Eric.
Well, it is very interesting. I'm just staring at this Bitcoin chart. It looks like it wants to go do this tonight. I appreciate you, Eric.
It is very interesting.
I'm just staring at this Bitcoin chart.
It looks like it wants to go do this tonight.
It's definitely looking good.
You know, Bitcoin has this funny thing it does
where it retests all-time highs and drops.
If you kind of look at it historically,
it tends to do that quite a bit.
Even if you go back to December, I think it was in the 109k range or so and it rallied up that area in early mid-january
if i'm not mistaken and then it dropped down to 75 000 from there so bitcoin does kind of have
this habit of testing all time highs and dropping off but that daily candles looking pretty strong
to me and again i've kind of mentioned this before with this administration stance on crypto now that
it's very clear um you know since january and you've got the trump brothers or at least one of
them kind of pumping bitcoin and ethereum online and the Trump family and others kind of buying into crypto.
You've got Tom Lee, who's got a thing going with Ethereum right now.
I'm kind of, you know, a little more high conviction on the breakouts, if you will.
So if I were to go off on a hunch, I would say this Bitcoin move is going to follow through
and we could see 130k by
the end of the week but for all of us who've been in the market before we know um follow through is
everything and you know you don't trade on bias you trade on price action but yeah i'm kind of
really liking the look of bitcoin here and ethereum has kind of run before bitcoin so that's
coming up into its 4800800 resistance area target area. So
if they were to reject there and pull back, I wouldn't be surprised by that. I just feel like
Bitcoin is kind of playing catch up a little bit. So if Bitcoin were to have a similar style move,
then I would look for it to get into that 130 to 131k area.
Do you have any thoughts on coin? I mean mean we know the numbers were not good it kind
of made that double top numbers were not good and it got punished a little bit it bounced back today
tried to get into that gap fill and just got absolutely stuffed it did and you know not
surprisingly it kind of rejected at the 20 ema on the way back up. And a lot of these strong names that ride those 5, 9, 20 EMAs do find some resistance at them.
So it hit the 20 EMA and dropped back.
I actually haven't had an opportunity to read through the recent reports.
And I think there was some dilution news this week or last as well.
So I haven't had an opportunity to read through it.
But from a technical perspective, the 293 level is big support down to about 257.
So if you want to use round numbers, 250 to 300 would be kind of your major support area.
But it took a pretty healthy run at 330 today.
30 today it needs to claim and hold 22 or 329 330 or so and if it can then i i could see it kind of
It needs to claim and hold 329, 330 or so.
build on this u-shaped recovery and potentially rally back up but i mean it had a really significant
run too right it was at 180 200 then i think it got up to the was it 240s 250s when the smp
inclusion news came in and it rallied up into the 400s. So earnings or not, I mean, the stock almost tripled recently.
So a healthy pullback was certainly in order.
Appreciate you, Oracle.
evan evan
Evans.
Evans.
yo turn into a busy time oh what are you so busy with uh i'm writing my newsletter
kind of stuff in here which you should check out pretty much my last post but
i'm trying to normally oh bitcoin 123 is it moving? Here we go. But
yeah. I don't know. Stock
we didn't get any rounds today. Are you okay?
Yeah, what's wrong?
Do you want to share with the group
why you're not doing okay today?
Must be
holding your shoulder.
It's probably because of how you uh came at everyone yesterday he's just upset oh he said his phone just died i thought listen sometimes you gotta control the space
evan anything else today stick out to you
um no yeah i'm sure there is i just have to go back and look Evan anything else today stick out to you? Um No
Yeah, I'm sure there is I just have to go back and look
A lot of these 13 F's and stuff
Are coming out which I've talked about a bunch
You kind of got me to a point when I'm trying to do something
So it's hard to like gather if you can come back
To me a little
Well the other guy's phone died
You don't want to ask her but no i'm kidding
urkel's fantastic all right let's get him a question you're a trader what question would
you have as a trader what are we looking at for tomorrow you know i know you're a futures guy so
you might even still be trading Futures are closed
Or well, they're closing in nine minutes
So not much to do right now
But you know, you had a big day on
Or whatever, yesterday you had a big trend day
Today, you basically held
If you look at the S&P today
I'll talk for a second actually
So you look at what happened,
you gapped up and it just slowly faded. The low of the day on SPY, the S&P, was yesterday's high.
It came down to it, just sat there. I took one trade because there's a high probability that
when you gap up like that, you do come back and touch previous days high, at least on the indices. So I took a trade on the NASDAQ short until that happened. And then
when it bounced back up, I took it again until SPY came down and did it. And that's all I did
today. And I feel like a lot of traders are probably in that same boat. There were some
other things moving around. I don't know, Urkel, I am curious, did you trade much today on a day
like today after Big Trend Day yesterday? I know there's some individual names that were making some moves.
Oh boy, we lose our call now too?
Yeah, I don't hear him.
I see him like unmuting.
Can you hear me?
There he is.
Yes.
Sorry, I shit you not. I just, I mean, I don't really, I barely hear you. It's like unmuting. Can you hear me? There he is. Yes. Sorry, I shit you not.
I mean, I don't really.
I barely hear you.
It's like super quiet.
Can you hear me now?
Do I hear you clicking the increase volume button?
I hear you.
Yeah.
I hear you tapping on something.
Is this thing on?
Yeah.
I don't know if you can hear this,
but I just literally dropped it.
Nah, you got to go.
Maybe you go down and come back up.
Listen, we don't got to push stuff.
We're just sitting here like this.
I'm, you know,
we don't go to five.
We want to wait a couple minutes
for StarTalk to come back up.
We want to look at a couple things,
but yeah.
Well, I mean, my point, though though is you had a big breakout day yesterday,
trend day up, new all-time highs, and then you gapped up on top of that today.
And all you did was get some profit taking and some rotation.
I mean, you look at what was weak today versus what was strong and you see,
like you mentioned this earlier, even you noticed it,
like a lot of these other names were getting
logged they were selling microsoft they were selling nasdaq or like most of the nasdaq was
selling and you saw that money going into spy and the dow iwm it's just a normal broadening
i thought it was very interesting it was good thing good thing to see. We've talked a lot about the opposite of that, a narrowing of it.
I think today was a good day, but does it feel toppy? Yeah, I can't say it doesn't.
I brought up a chart the other day, RSP. I asked a few different panelists about it. It's the equal weight S&P
and the chart looked really bad. It held the 50 day, but it looked really bad last week.
And then if you look at it the last two days, you see absolute broadening in the market. You see
two huge days in the equal weight. And then like, if you look at SPY, it looks, I mean, obviously
yesterday was a pretty big day, but if you look at the R and just go
RSP on your trading view and look at equal weight and you see that's right
back pushing towards the all-time highs again,
that is a healthy cycle of a bull market. I mean, the broadening out,
everything is, you know,
they sell some of the leaders and spread money out into other things.
It's a very healthy sign of the market.
Can you hear me now there he is yeah i just when you when you asked me if i was trading anything i was um by my kitchen sink putting my kids lunch away and i literally dropped my cell
phone into the fucking sink so there we go i was trying to truthfully it's still not great you're
still super quiet unless i need to make my volume yeah actually i might need to make my volume i can hear i can
hear him okay yeah i dropped my phone into the freaking sink and i might have killed it i don't
know it's an iphone so supposed to be waterproof but i don't know we're about to find out tonight
you should go buy a new one and pump evan's Right. I got to just to get to stock talk too, just pump the Apple stock a bit.
So for me personally, I did not trade today.
But just on that breadth comment, I'm not sure who was just mentioning that.
Just to add to that, I thought it was really good for the markets to remain strong with NVIDIA not participating.
So just kind of just to add to that piece there.
I noticed that yesterday too. Did you notice that yesterday? NVIDIA didn't participate as we were
blowing through a trend at all time highs. And I thought the same thing. I was like,
that looks actually pretty healthy. Yeah, totally. I completely agree with that take. And
it's been kind of nice to see. It's becoming a bit more of a stock picker's
market now i think you know in that first couple months after the trump tariff tantrum you could
have added anything even if it dropped or even if you chased it and still made money
i didn't end up trading today just because i was out of it yesterday i had a medical procedure
done but i did add mara, like I said earlier,
near 16 earlier this week. And I am going to be watching some of those dips I talked about
tomorrow as well. I just kind of wanted to see how things settle today. But BMNR and SBET,
just to kind of catch that Ethereum rush, if you will. Another one I was looking at today too was Archer. That's got a huge support
level at 970 to 1020. And it was dropping off pre earnings, but it had a big comeback yesterday
and a consolidation day today. Consolidating off the 5920 EMAs and above the $10, both psych level and volume shelf, like support level.
So I didn't add anything today,
but if things look healthy tomorrow,
those are a few of the names I'm looking to add.
Rocket Labs as well, like I mentioned off the 42.
So no trades, no active trades for me today.
I tend to lean towards swing trading personally anyway.
So I'll wait to find really
good entries either pullbacks to supports to key support levels or breakouts and after this
morning's gap ups i just didn't see a whole lot of opportunity or high conviction entries so i just
decided to sit on my hands and watch so no big big trades for me today, but I do have some cash ready to go.
So tomorrow I might be a little more active as long as things hold up into the morning.
We'll see what markets look like after PPI tomorrow.
Got some cash there ready to go in there, bud.
I love it.
Always a swing trader.
I'm kind of in and out of my swing,
so I always like to have 10% to 20% cash sitting around
just so I can take advantage of opportunities.
Did we get SokTak back?
I'm here.
Yeah, my phone died.
Sorry.
Sorry.
I'm alive.
Sorry.
Sorry. What were we talking about
uh not not a whole lot we were talking about what today looked like after uh you know big trend day
yesterday slow day today ppi coming in tomorrow just i was curious if urkel was doing a whole
lot we're looking at bitcoin almost at all-time high here and evan was uh pretty disappointed he thought maybe he uh upset you yesterday because you didn't give us a good
rant today oh no no no no i want to say i was not i was not worried or disappointed i was just
apologizing to you no i was making the observation that we didn't get the rent today but no no
concessions were made no i mean some days i don't have a rant you know some days I don't have a rant, you know? Some days I don't have a rant. Like, you know, when there's moments in the market
where I feel like there's a rant needed, I'll give one.
Are you going to rant about not ranting?
Yes.
I could rant about the conditions of rant right now.
No, I mean, I could talk about some stuff.
Well, I could ask you the same question.
You don't have to.
Or not.
No, I was going to ask the same question, though.
Today, you had a trend day yesterday.
You gapped up open today and just sat there above yesterday's high on SPY, for example.
You, as a fairly active trader, I know you do a lot of swing stuff as well,
but do you come into a day like today with just low expectations of doing anything?
I've had low expectations.
I haven't done much
in the last month to be honest i mean i've made a couple of new ads here and there like last friday
we added parsons i actually posted about that on twitter too i usually only post my new positions
in our community but i post about that one on twitter too but that one's green every day this
week so that was nice pars Parsons working well. Goldman
actually downgraded it this morning and the stock was still up two and a half percent today. So that
was nice. And then I had more recent ads with Lyft and Fubo, which both did well today. I think
it was a lot of the neglected stocks today that got a bid. Lyft was super neglected. It even went
down further after earnings. I just don't think the stock should have been going down, but it just shows you how bad sentiment is on this name.
It's obviously not been a good performing name,
but I don't have many plays in my portfolio where I'm like in them thinking
that like I'm in them for the fact that I think they're cheap.
Like I don't have many stocks like that.
And so Lyft is one of those where maybe it works, maybe it doesn't,
but it was nice to see it turn around today and have a good day.
It retook, Lyft retook like all of its moving averages today in one day,
which tells you how quickly price action can change.
Yesterday, the chart looked really ugly.
Today, it retook the 9 EMA, the 21 EMA, the 200-day moving average,
and the 100-day moving average.
And on the weekly, it retook all of those spots as well.
The weekly and daily moving averages
are like blended together on this thing.
They're all in the $13 to $14 range.
Like if you pull up Lyft's chart
and go to your daily chart and weekly chart
and flip back and forth, you'll see what I mean.
Like there's like 12 moving averages
on two different timeframes all stacked together.
So I feel like there's a tremendous amount of support here for a bid if the stock can hold up above these areas.
But yeah, that thing acted nicely today.
LEU, which I talk about a lot, which has more than doubled for us, has been cooling off and had a big cool off day today.
They did a $650 million convertible note offering.
I think they're going to use that for capacity expansion but the market clearly didn't like it today high volume sell
broke below the 50 day i could see leu fall if it cannot recover the 50 i could see it fall
further into the 160 spot which would be the 21 week ema and that would be a good much needed
cool off for a stock that is you know more than doubled in
two months you know it needs and it needs a cool off and so this is I think one that's
overdue and the reasons sometimes change for why that happens but in this case it was an offering
but you know I wasn't too mad to see that even Nebius cooled off today which is another big
position for me but that thing has also gone insane, right? That thing has tripled in the last three months. So when stocks make
these massive moves, they have to cool off. And I'm okay with that. And today was a day where the
underbid things caught a bid and the overbid things cooled off. And there was a lot of breath
expansion on a day like today, which I think is healthy for the broader market. But a lot of my
quieter names that don't get talked about a lot did well today, you know, like Materion, which I think is healthy for the broader market. But a lot of my quieter names that don't get talked about a lot did well today, you know,
like Materion, which I talk about a lot on these spaces, but doesn't get talked about
a lot on Twitter or in the analyst community.
That stock did well again today, pushing to new highs, 112, new local highs, not new all-time
highs, 112.41, Parsons, continuous to push another 2.5%.
Fubo and Lyft had good reconstruction sort of days.
Fubo pulled back into the 50-day.
When did it pull back?
Yesterday? Yeah.
Or day before yesterday.
Confirmed the 50-day support yesterday
and then pushed back over the 9-21 daily EMAs today.
We're starting to develop a little bit of a pinch on the weekly
chart on Fubo, a pinch into the 200 day. This is a setup that I play over and over and over and over
and over again for people that are my community. They recognize this pattern. Anytime you have an
overhead 200 week or 200 day or sometimes even 200 month resistance, and you have the shorter
term moving averages pointing to the
upside supporting price, that's, you know, some people would look at that. Some technical traders
will look at that and say, you know, you're buying into resistance. And I don't view it that way.
I think if the stock has a favorable story, favorable theme and favorable catalyst,
and you're heading into that sort of setup, I think the probability of a breakout is higher
than a probability of rejection. So that's why I play those. And I played a ton of stocks this year off
that same setup that have done very well. Bloom Energy, that stock doubled after its 200-day
pinch. Nebius, same thing. Centris, same thing. They go on and on and on. There have been countless
stocks this year that have traded with that exact setup. Indy Semiconductor, like so many,
that have either doubled or run 40% or 50%. But anyway, Fubo is
doing that now in the weekly where you have a 200 week moving average that it has not been above
since 2022. And back then the stock was $15, right? It's a $3 stock now. And really what happened to Fubo was their growth was pretty high
in 21 and 22. And then the growth fell off and revenues are still shrinking, but EPS is
accelerating. And obviously at the beginning of this year, Fubo forexed on the Disney catalyst, which was the proposed merger of Hulu Live TV with Fubo.
And in the joint venture, Fubo would be purported to own 30%.
Start of the year, the stock was trading at 121.
That was actually the first alert of the year for me.
People who have been in my community all year, they probably remember, but that was our first
alert.
We got in at 120 and then sold the next day at like $5.
It was pretty insane. And we just got into the chart, but that catalyst ended up alert we got in at 120 and then sold the next day like five dollars it was pretty insane and we just got into the chart but that catalyst ended up coming and
sometimes that happens charge setting up a crazy catalyst comes that one was particularly crazy
but anyway after that crazy move i was like whatever made my gains on food but haven't
looked at it and then the last couple weeks i started scrolling through some low price to sales
stocks what i was what i was doing was i was looking at groups of stocks that have high growth started scrolling through some low price to sales stocks.
What I was,
what I was doing was I was looking at groups of stocks that have high growth
and low price to sales.
And I stumbled upon both Fubo and Lyft and ended up buying them in the same
week.
because I like both the setups.
And so we'll see,
we'll see what happens with these.
You know,
they haven't made an crazy move from where I bought them yet,
but we'll see what happens.
but I really liked that weekly setup.
And if it breaks over the 200 week, which is at $4, stocks 376 today, I think the move can be explosive.
They're supposed to have a September 30th shareholder vote.
For the merger, I don't see any reason why that shareholder vote would not be overwhelmingly
approved by shareholders. I mean, if you look at the volume bar, if you look at the weekly,
monthly, daily, whatever volume bar you want to, because it was the highest on all of them
from the start of this year, you look how overwhelming it was. I mean, that should give
you a pretty good ability to predict the shareholder vote, right? Because if the biggest volume ever for the stock on a weekly, monthly, and daily basis was the day that the merger proposal was announced, what do you think the shareholder base thinks about the merger?
They probably want it to happen.
If tens of millions of shares, I don't know what the volume was back then, but let's see.
Okay.
It was 650 million shares traded that day. And the day after, it was like 400 million shares.
Okay, that's not nothing.
And if all those shareholders bought it on the disney catalyst and the stocks consolidated literally for the entire year if you pull up pull up daily chart
pull up your year-to-date horizon on fubo and you'll see what i'm talking about huge pop at
the start of the year and for the entire year the stock has consolidated basically in this two to four range. And now you have a vote coming up.
And by the way, this is not something a lot of people talk about, but there's something called moving average reorganization where a stock consolidates for a long time and all of its moving averages restack.
Okay, and that's exactly what happened to Fubo.
OK, and that's exactly what happened to Fubo.
So if you look at Fubo now, you'll see it's sitting above the 9 EMA and 21 EMA cluster,
which are sitting above the 50-day, which is sitting above the 100-day, which is sitting above the 200-day.
That's how it should be, right?
But when a stock gets neglected, it often requires a gap up and then a period of consolidation
for that moving average reorganization to happen.
So now you have Fubo with literally all of its moving averages stacked below price after a full year or full half year of consolidation
into a 200 week pinch. I just really like the setup. In fact, the more I talk about it,
I probably should have more size on this, but I think it's a very strong technical setup
and their earnings are already over. And, you know, even if you look at them on an earnings
basis,
frankly, yeah, revenue isn't growing.
So that could make you just completely disinterested right there.
But the stock is trading at 0.8 times sales
with a merger with Hulu on the horizon.
I mean, you can't segment Hulu Live TV out of Disney's business.
This is what makes valuation hard in the case of Fubo
because you can't segment out Hulu Live TV from the business
because Disney doesn't do it that way. Disney has their streaming business and Hulu Live TV is
included in it. But I mean, conservatively speaking, Disney's market cap is what?
210 billion. Okay. If you ascribe, I don't know, 40 billion of their market cap to their streaming
business, like what is just the Hulu Live TV portion worth? I don't know, 40 billion of their market cap to their streaming business. Like what is just the
Hulu live TV portion worth? I don't know, but I think it's worth billions. I think it's probably
in a vacuum worth over 10 billion, honestly. And now you get a deal with the NFL to bring six games,
NFL network and red zone, which by the way, have millions of viewers on those programs,
all bring them all to Disney's live TV offerings, which are offered on Hulu,
which will now be offered on Fubo. And the companies are trading at a 1.3 billion market cap.
I don't know. It doesn't make sense to me. So yeah, that's why I'm long on that name.
Very strong technical structure and the story just, I think it's mispriced.
I mean, obviously the risk is that the merger is not approved, but I just can't wrap my
mind around a scenario where shareholders would vote against that.
Like if you were a shareholder of a $1.3 billion company and Disney came to you and said, yeah,
do you want to merge with Hulu and you got to own 30% of the joint venture?
I'd be like, dude, fucking where do I sign?
That's what I would say.
If I was the CEO of a $1.3 billion company
and Disney came to me and said that,
but there may be some shareholder, I don't know,
maybe there's some activist shareholder in this stock
that owns a bunch that just like fucking hates Disney.
I don't know.
There's always some risk in things, guys.
So I can't say there's no risk,
but yeah, that's why i like it
and lift i just like because i don't think autonomy is going to kill rideshare apps the way a lot of
autonomy bulls do um if the av narrative ends up weighing on it in the back half of the year i'll
close it it's not a position i'm married to neither of these are positions i'm married to
if the price action goes against me i'll close them but you know i'm just talking to you guys about stuff i've bought and why i bought it but there
is a chance i may have added to that left call position that i have that would get to me a little
bit mine went down like after earnings those two days where it was red mine were down like 20 and
now they're back to green again after today's move so it's like you know you you're playing
with a double-edged sword when you have calls you know and and i have januaries on it too uh september's october's
january's so like you're playing with a double-edged sword you know but i know what i'm doing
and so i'm not too worried about that but i upsized it with shares and then i have shares on fubo so
i'm fine with it i'm fine with the volatility like Like I can sit through it. It's not a big deal, but I try to look for setups where this is the, if you want me to put my
trading in a nutshell, I try to look for setups where the stock has a tremendous amount of support
below it. It's coming into a major resistance, like the 200 day or the 200 week. And it has a
promising story. And the promising story part of
it is the hard part, right? That's what takes experience to have like a measured understanding
of like, what's a good story? Because some people think, oh, if there's earnings growth,
it's a good story. No, you can't look at that in a vacuum. But if you have earnings growth,
individual stock catalysts, a hot thematic in the backdrop relatively good
financials relatively low debt ideally zero debt those are the type of stocks
that can run not just for a month or two months but for a lot of those not
during me in RKT I was trying to get to yesterday so I like I like RKT I just
missed my entry and just I'm not gonna chase it here i was i was
looking to get into it at 13 so i'm not gonna chase it at 20 but i was looking at it at 13 and
really strongly considering it and just didn't but the volume profile on rkt is gorgeous that's
going much much higher i don't think it's that it's bad that you're in that at all i i like i
said i wanted to get into it but i missed my entry but i missed my entry on stuff i just you know sometimes i i say okay i write it off and it goes way way higher and that's okay but
i can live with that like cost-based the way i manage my portfolio and the reason i'm able to
stay so calm during drawdowns is because i have cost-based advantages on everything I have,
except the very new stuff.
Very new stuff I'm not going to have a big cost-based advantage on unless I get a crazy move on day one,
which happens sometimes, but not all the time.
But out of the 16 positions I have right now,
on 14 of them, I have deep cost-based advantages. So it's like, that just makes my
life a million times easier because when the stocks go down, like LEU, right? Went down,
whatever, 13% today. It might fall down more. It might fall down to 160, but my cost is 96.
Like, even if it falls down to 160, I'm probably a buyer there if anything so that's
that's what allows you to hold stocks through volatility no one no matter how sophisticated
or strong stomach they say they are is going to hold a six or seven figure position through a 30
percent drawdown from their cost if you put a million dollars into a stock and you buy it and
you you hold it through earnings you buy a week before earnings and it goes down 30%, you're down 300K in two days, like very few people are going to sit there at that P&L and just hold and hope.
Right?
Very few people are going to look at it.
Most people are going to be worried, oh my God, that 300K loss might turn into a 500 or 600 or 700K loss.
I'm just going to cut my loss and get over with.
That's what human psychology is generally going to produce.
That's the course of action
that human psychology is going to produce.
So to avert that as a portfolio manager,
as a manager of positions,
to avert that,
you ensure that you have good cost-based advantages
by not chasing stocks when they're up a lot
or when they're gapped up,
six or seven candles green in a row. That's people want to buy stuff it blows my mind that people want to buy stuff when
it's open if the breakout has like halfway complete people are buying stuff as opposed to
you know waiting for meaningful pullbacks into like monthly levels monthly levels not daily and
weekly levels you know if you're somebody wants to accumulate something and own it for ten years which a lot of you are a lot of you are like
passive slash active investors you should not be buying stuff on daily
pullback I talked a little bit about this yesterday too but like you know I
have people were like oh stock like I like one of your core positions that
you're up 500% on and I want to buy it I'm gonna buy it on a 21 EMA pullback
on the daily like no what what no you want to buy it, I'm going to buy it on a 21 EMA pullback on the daily. Like, no,
what, what? No, you want to buy it when there are meaningful pullbacks on the monthly. Cause
look, everyone looks at daily charts and says, Oh, the stock's extended or the index is extended
or whatever's extended. Very few people ever look at monthly charts and say they're extended,
but monthly charts get extended too. And generally,, for people who like to predict market corrections, I always say never
to do that. But if you are a stickler and somebody who really, really want to know when the markets
might be pulling back, a really, really reliable indicator that I've found of that is look at
market leaders in various industries and look at how extended their monthly charts are.
at how extended their monthly charts are. When market leaders across various industries all have
monthly charts that are 150% above their nine EMAs, you could probably expect a 10 or 15%
correction in the markets to cool those names off. It's pretty reasonable to expect that.
And so those are the moments where if you're interested in accumulating a market leader to hold for five years or 10 years, that's when you buy.
Not when the stock's down 5%.
You're like, oh, it's a bloody day in the market.
Warren Buffett told me to buy when there's blood in the streets.
Spy's down 2% today, so I'm going to buy.
That's not where you accumulate long-term positions if you want to have if you want to enjoy the psychological benefits of having deep
cost-based advantages you do not buy dips on daily pullbacks you buy dips on
monthly pullbacks and those are deep pullbacks those are sometimes 30 40
percent pullbacks in the equity very often in those moments no one wants to
buy the stock and that's precisely the problem is that in those moments, no one wants to buy the stock. And that's precisely the problem, is that in those
moments, when the stock's down three weeks in a row, down 30%, and it's testing its 200-month
moving average, which if anyone looks at the ROI, you look at the one-year, two-year, three-year,
five-year ROI for a market-leading stock off its 200-month moving average, it's insane.
ROI for market leading stock off its 200 month moving average. It's insane. It's insane how much
stocks can go up off that spot because that's like the bottom of the run of support for moving
average traders. And a lot of the institutional guys on Wall Street, institutional guys, they
don't use any sort of complicated TA. They're just looking at moving averages. That's it.
They're looking at moving averages and trends. The guys who are moving really big money. And so you come
down to the 200 month and there's a stock you like, you better buy it. Like that's not financial
advice, but kind of it's, but like, if there's a stock you love and it's, and you want to own it
for a decade and it's in, it's landing on its 200 month moving average,
it might go a little lower, but
you buy it. Where's Adobe?
Where's Adobe and
Lululemon? I'm curious.
Let's do a little
fucking one. We're doing a little live workshop right here.
Adobe.
Monthly.
Adobe just forfeited its 100 month. Which, 100 i mean 100 month return isn't a bad spot
either but like if you can in some scenario get this thing at its 200 month at 223 that'd probably
be a hell of a buy although it's never gone there-month. Adobe did. It did it in late 2011 at $22.
from that period through 2015, the stock went to 77 from 22 and then proceeded to go straight up
in a line all the way to 300 bucks by 2019. So actually the 10 year return, if you bought the
200 month moving average on Adobe in late 2011 and you sold in 2021 was 2267 to 540.
So percent change calculated.
So if you bought the 200 month moving average pullback on Adobe in 2011,
you had a 2,300% gain on the equity in 10 years.
Want to do it with another stock?
Yeah, let's go through all of Evan's
holdings.
His bags.
I do not own any Adobe.
I do not own any Adobe.
I cut my Lululemon as well.
I cut my TTD.
What's your worst performing stock?
It was Lululemon?
The worst performing stock,
I think it's Intel.
I don't know if I can tell you a dollar pretty quickly one second nope that's the wrong one
yeah and if you really want to be a specialist about this and really be
a sniper with your entries what you can do is wait for a 200 month support confirmation test
on the monthly and then wait for a reclaim of the nine week ema on the weekly chart those setups are
sick and i'm not a bottom fisher but those are sick setups i've hit a few a few of those sometimes
that's the kind of shit where it can go up like 100% a month.
Those
are crazy setups.
200-month
test and confirmation,
which means the stock comes into the 200-month
and... Where is UNH, though, right now?
I'm curious.
Or where was it? Did it get down to the 200-month?
Shit, that was quite a move.
It's basically almost there.
210 is the 200 month.
Interesting.
Listen, people are getting all excited
about these 13F filings.
They don't get what they want tomorrow.
Dude, speaking of what I just
said, 200 month
test and confirm with
a 9 week
EMA reclaim.
UNH is about to do
that.
UNH is $10
away from basically doing that.
Say that
one more time.
He said buy UNHG. $10 away from basically doing that. Say that one more time. Okay.
He said buy UNHG.
200 month
test and confirmation,
which means the stock sells into the
200 month and then confirms support
with a green candle, plus
a reclaim of the
weekly 9 EMA. If I
was going to be a bottom fisher, which
I'm not, that's what i would bottom
fish and unh is actually about to do that all right so i will say if i want to switch into ad
i am i might have been working with a company for a little bit that launched a 2x unh uh ticker
if i was alternate universe I was a bottom fisher.
If UNH reclaimed a weekly close above
283, I would probably add
300 call leaps on
UNH, personally.
If I were a bottom fisher.
We're going to go
buy these spaces one day. It's going to be at like
3.30. Stack Talks will be like, yeah, I couldn't fucking help
it. I'm in.
The more I talk about it i might buy it
a little a little bit this market's hot you know we'll see but they they're people are there's a
lot a lot of people wanting to take a trade on unh right now both short and long um obviously
this is what happens in this area but it's it's getting talked about a lot oh it was a decent day today
and yesterday or two days ago
it started really
bouncing didn't it
I wanted to check meta's 200
month but it doesn't even have a 200
month yet
it doesn't even exist
no how could it not it hasn't been public for 200 months month yet. Doesn't even exist.
How could it not?
It hasn't been public for 200 months, Evan.
Yeah.
Into 200.
200 a month is a, is a.
Yeah. There's a reason, there's the reason why the return,
there's a reason why the returns are so insane.
Because like, again, if you're, if you're a basic price, volume, and moving average guy, which I am, right?
And a lot of institutional guys are.
If that's all you look at, price, volume, and moving averages, then the 200 month is like the bottom of the line, right?
So it's like if you are going to bottom are gonna bottom fish that's where you're gonna
bottom fish you're gonna be like okay dude like how much lower can it really go if a stock comes
down to its 200 month that means like that thing got brutalized like that stock just got sold
like it's really hard for stock that's been trending up or been going up to fall into its
200 month unless it's like a shit stock that's always been shit obviously it's a shit stock
it's always been shit it's probably not that's a shit stock that's always been shit, it's probably not that far.
Speaking of, where's Intel?
Let's see.
I still have my Intel calls.
I rolled them yesterday and had a good day today.
Intel is below its 200 month and below.
Intel looks brutal, dude.
Intel is like, yeah, Intel looks brutal, dude.
I couldn't touch Intel. I'm sorry.
On the daily, it looks good, though.
I'm playing this for next week.
That's weird, actually. Intel looks terrible
on the monthly, but looks good on the daily
and looks
decent on the weekly,
although it needs to clear 25, in my view, on the weekly, although it needs to clear 25 in my view on the weekly.
DocTalk, to bend the knee trade, I'm telling you.
They said in their release next week that the CEO of Intel and my team
are going to work over this next week,
and they're going to come to me with a proposal.
Bend the knee trade, give me a week.
Yeah, I need to see Intel get more productive on these monthly closes it's gonna get
rejected it's probably it probably makes a run and it just gets absolutely stomped yeah that's
what it looks like a lot of monthly chart is saying like look at the i'm just rolling the
way but look at these calls on like the the i went out to next week because i want to get some of
that i'm just rolling up every dollar we up, I'm taking the profits in.
My trade is pretty much break even
at this point. I'm up
on it, but I've already put in my pocket
on the rolls. After, if I
roll in one time, I'll be good.
Yeah.
This is going to pull back at some point. I don't trust that this
is it on Intel. I would need to see it prove
that it can get a monthly close
above this 21 month EMA, which is just like coming down on top of it.
The nine, the nine months is just stuffing it these last like four months.
So I would need to see a little more strength from it on the longer timeframes before I get interested.
But the daily looks nice.
I can't deny the daily.
The daily looks really nice.
The daily looks like it has clearance
probably to $25 pretty easily.
But I don't know.
Above that is going to require
some real volume and some real work.
Volume profile is still pretty messy too.
Yeah, I don't know.
Intel is not really clean
in my view, not yet.
Look at the way Apple has been moving, though.
I don't know.
It's insane.
The bend-the-knee trade is off to a hot start.
I'm watching Goldman Sachs.
I mean, dude, I don't know if Goldman Sachs is going to do the bend.
I think it's different with these tech companies bending the knee
than it is with financial firms.
What can Trump really do to goldman can't do much you know so like with with apple he can though
because like like goldman doesn't really care about tariffs like but apple does and nvidia does
and they care about export controls and things so i think it's like the companies that he has direct
ability goldman sachs buys Upstart gets into the loan market
opening for everyone
BNPL to everyone, GS
I'm kind of kidding but they are
there is this whole debanked and unbanked thing
and a lot of these crypto people go and talk about it
Bitcoin about to hit new all time highs
I don't know
is Trump going to make them get into crypto more?
The companies that traditionally in the modern era bend the knee to the executive are tech companies and aerospace and defense companies.
Because both of those industries can be – sorry, and oil and gas.
So energy companies, tech companies, they are the ones that – I'm sorry, aerospace and defense companies, they're
the ones that the president's decision making can directly impact the grants, support, you
know, whatever, all that stuff that they receive, they can be directly impacted by the president's
actions. So those industries tend to be the White House visiting group, you know, the
automobile industry too, but that's more so a post-financial crisis thing since the bailout of the, uh, bailout of Detroit happened.
Ever since then, there's been a more intimate relationship between Washington and the automotive
industry, but the automotive industry is obviously deeply entrenched in the political lobby too
around the country. That's really why the dealership model even exists in America. But,
um, anyway, that's an entirely separate conversation.
But really, those are the big three, you know, the energy companies and aerospace and defense companies and the tech companies, because they are trying to win favor.
That's why, I mean, even look at the inaugural fund.
Like everyone was surprised at all the million dollar checks that were written at the inaugural fund by tech CEOs for Trump.
That happens every year.
CEOs write million dollar checks every every time, not every year, but every four years when a
president is inaugurated, they they write, you know, multimillion dollar checks because they
want to win curry favor with the president of the United States. It's a powerful person. And
yeah, that's happening this time around, too. Although, you know, I do think there are some
things that I'm fine with.
There's some things I'm not fine with.
I don't love the idea of the board of a publicly traded company meeting with the cabinet of the president.
I don't love that idea.
It makes me feel like it feels a little China.
It feels a little China, to be frank.
And, you know, what I value about the United States the most is our capital structure.
The fact that, you know, we have relatively free markets.
We have, you know, companies that are relatively free to do what they want to seek profit and innovate.
And that's why we have the biggest economy.
If I'm taking if I'm taking the devil's advocate here,, clearly I'm not going to fight and say the way he's
going about it.
But the idea of, hey, you have to invest in more in America, in China, like they wouldn't
even have the other option to go in and invest or whatever.
They would have just been told.
Like, I hear what you're saying, and maybe it is going into that, but it's not like...
No, yeah.
I'm not saying we are China. I'm just just saying like i don't like the idea of the cabinet
i just don't like the idea of the presidential cabinet meeting with a board i just don't like
that idea i'm fine with the ceos of companies going and consulting or talking with the president
i'm fine with that but i just don't like i don't want us to create a precedent of the presidential
cabinet meeting with boards i just don't like that. And maybe I'm being,
I don't know, maybe I'm being like unnecessarily strict about that and it doesn't really matter.
And I'm making a big deal out of nothing, but I don't like the precedent it sets.
That's just point blank. But outside of that, yes, I agree that we need to,
like, I agree with his intentions of wanting to domesticate semiconductors. That I
agree with. Like, I want the semiconductor industry to be more at home. But let's be realistic here.
Like, Evan, I don't know, put this into an LLM. What percentage of Taiwan
semiconductors revenue comes from American companies? Let me know when you have that.
let me know when you have that
but my point is is that for all intents and purposes i think for the next
decade control of chips is going to be the most single most important physical good to control
and allegedly 69 okay so what almost 70 percent of tsm's revenue so tell me how tsm isn't already
an american company outside of name and headquarters it is and where they make the
chips yeah but that's changing yeah and they're more advanced ship in phoenix now
yeah their two nanometer is going to start being built in phoenix
now it's not going to be at the scale that's built in Taiwan initially, but I'm saying we buy 70 percent of their chips.
We are now they're now building three factories in Arizona with progressing levels of complexity.
And effectively, we're providing for Taiwan's defense as well. So for all intents and purposes, outside of the name of the company,
I think that if somebody were to ask me,
is TSM more a Taiwanese company or an American company,
I would say, well, take the Americans out of the equation.
And what is TSM?
It would be a shell of its former self.
The money that has funded TSM's development and expansion
and the trillions of dollars that have funded the
expansion of Taiwan Semiconductor has come from American technology companies' pockets.
It's come from Silicon Valley and NVIDIA and AMD and Apple that buy their chips.
Everyone buys their chips.
And the biggest buyers of their chips are all American.
So maybe that's a little imperialist of me, I guess, or whatever to say that. But I
think for all intents and purposes, TSM is an American company. Now, I get Trump's intention
to say, you know, Intel is really an American company, really a domestic company, but Intel
is executed terribly. Like, we aren't supposed to excuse that in America. In America, you're supposed to get punished for that.
You know, this is supposed to be a free market economy where, hey, if you can't compete, you get punished.
And they did.
And TSM did compete, and they won the business from American companies instead.
And now, effectively, they're an American company.
And that's the underrated point of leverage that we have, not just with our tech companies, but with our consumers, which is that so many of the biggest companies in the world outside of the United States, which there aren't many, 23 of the 25 biggest are ours.
But of the few big companies in the United States, outside of the United States, almost all of them depend on American business to survive. Almost all of them outside of Saudi
Aramco. So, I mean, you know, I know I'm flag waving a bit here, but the semiconductor industry
is already ours by virtue of the American dollars being the lifeblood by which innovation occurs in
the semiconductor industry and the lifeblood by which chips are shipped. Without the American dollar wanting those chips, the whole thing
collapses pretty quickly, as does the valuation of all those companies, even the non-US ones. So
we don't need to incentivize these companies to come to America. We need to demand it. And
the demands have been different. In the case of the Biden administration,
the CHIPS Act was more of an incentive. In the case of the Trump administration,
they're basically demanding it by saying, if you don't come here, you're going to face insanely
high tariffs and be unable to sell 70 percent of your sales into our market freely. And that's all
the incentive you need. You think TSM is even going to attempt to push back against that? No,
they cannot compromise whatever, 65 to 70 percent of their sales or whatever the actual number is.
They cannot afford to do that. The company would collapse. And they know that. And so just like
China needs the American buyer, TSM needs the American buyer too, and needs the American tech
company. Could you imagine if Apple tomorrow was like, oh, well, sorry, you didn't meet the
requirements. You didn't build enough factories here. We can't buy your chips anymore. And
NVIDIA said the same thing. We're like, that'd be terrible. It would be terrible for our companies
too, because they're the ones making the most advanced chips. But it's a mutual recognition
of importance. And that's why the project in Arizona is happening. And if I had to bet my
bottom dollar, all timelines on the Arizona project are going to be ahead of schedule as they
have been. They've been ahead of schedule by months so far, I think they will continue to
be ahead of schedule in the Arizona project because the urgency is very well articulated here.
And it's very well understood by all parties in power that there is a tremendous amount of urgency to secure a domestic semiconductor supply chain and secure a domestic rare earth supply chain.
It's part of the reason also why these rare earth stocks are holding up so well.
You know, someone got smacked today because the number put out in the executive order wasn't big enough.
order wasn't big enough. But I think people are missing the point there. And I think these stocks
But I think people are missing the point there.
will continue to perform well over the next few years, because if one thing came out of the
discussions with China, one acknowledgement came out, the U.S. certainly knows now that they are
going to apply leverage on rare earths. So now we already know that. They've told us, we know this
is your pain point. We know it's the pain point. So now it's a matter of saying, OK, how do we
address that pain point so China can't pressure us in that category again? And that's going to be, in my view,
the next 10 years of not only development in the energy space, but also development in the
rare earth space to enable that. So what's this name? MP Materials. Great. Cool.
There's got to be some more of these rare earth themes. When we talked about the MP Materials
deal, it was kind of talked about, even the administration said that would be used as a rubric for future deals.
So what are these names?
I was joking around with that TMC company, which probably is just a shit code.
I won't go to anything, but I wonder what, maybe, maybe it won't.
Maybe we'll also get like in the meantime, get a little love, maybe take a trade.
But I wonder what the long-term ones are here.
If it is just, hey, some of of these they're gonna sign a deal yeah i can touch on some so um yeah empty materials is the obvious one or the the obviously the american ones too yeah these are
all i'm not looking at non-american ones you would i wouldn't i'm sorry for disrespecting
you by thinking that you would give it a non-American America. I'm a very
pro-America guy, but that's not even
why. I just think the bid is under...
What's your favorite country that's non-America
both to invest in and maybe that you'd visit?
If you're... Yeah.
Talked about
India at one point. We had the India trade.
But not for investing in either
of them. If you're talking about places I like to
visit, I like those places. If you're talking about places I like to visit, I like those places.
And if you're talking about investing, I like pretty much all of South America.
And I like pretty much all of Southeast Asia for investing purposes.
Those are probably my favorites.
Highest growth, most potential, growing middle classes.
I like those places. So yeah, that's two countries for visiting and two countries for investing. But yeah, on rare earths,
I own MTRN and UUUU currently. So Materion, I've talked about here a bunch, beryllium,
niche industry, about a $250 to $300 million global industry. But I think the five-year CAGR on the growth of the beryllium market is underrated.
Materion is the only integrated beryllium producer in the Western Hemisphere.
It's super critically important for all the important industries,
nuclear reactors and weapons, aerospace and defense, space and satellites.
I think the relative strength has been very impressive in the past eight or so sessions
for this name, too. I think it goes much higher, about a 2.3 billion market cap.
And UUU is, I think, very interesting because of their white MESA mill, where they mill
conventional uranium, but they also start a pilot program to mill where earth assets in the
same mill. Um, that makes it interesting to me. Um, uh,
sorry, I'm replying to this text message. Um,
by the way, also while you're doing that,
president Trump signed executive order to fill strategic active pharmaceutical
ingredients reserve
with critical drug components so there's an executive order being signed pharma related
doesn't look like this is like a tariff something or one so it seems like buying drugs good yeah
that positive for these companies maybe i don't know we'll see yeah but that just came out now
he generally follows these with a little speech
and then he does some Q&A
so you never know.
Imagine Trump might be talking soon
if not right now.
Yeah.
Perpetual Resources,
PPTA,
they have a golden antimony mine.
Antimony is a rare metal
that the United States
does not have enough production
of the reserve.
Where are these mines?
Huh?
Where are they? We're just mining in the U.S.?
Like, just a lot of places.
Yeah, these are all in the U.S. All these projects are in the U.S.
Off the top of my head, I don't want to name all
the states because I'm going to misname states
and stuff off the top of my head.
Yeah, PBTA, Preacher Resource, Dave Gold
Antoine, mine.
Trump signed space industry related
executive order.
Okay, alright. Now we're talking the Fintwit favorite names. 929. Trump signed space industry-related executive order. Okay.
All right.
Now we're talking the Fintwit favorite names.
Don't know what it is.
Rocket Lab with a small tick up in After Hours.
What does this mean?
What does this mean?
Where is this happening to?
I'm not seeing.
Probably in the White House.
Do you think he's screaming it from the he's on the the roof right now screaming down executive orders you never know rocket lab with a small tick up there I'm sure all these ones are going
across on like uh the algos but I want to see what it is. Sorry. I guess there is just news happening.
No, you're good. I'm looking at it too now.
Office of Space Commerce?
The problem is sometimes it's just...
Did you just say offensive space commerce?
Is that what I just heard?
Office of Space Commerce.
Elevating the Office of Space Commerce.
I don't know what that means.
The Office of Space Commerce will promote the growth and competitiveness of the u.s commercial while ensuring it operates safely and responsibly the office of space commerce will coordinate
space policy license certain commercial satellites and lead efforts in civil space
traffic management and debris tracking. Interesting. Gotcha.
Okay.
All right.
That makes more sense when you explain it like that. I just saw the headline at first.
That's not really moving stocks either.
Robbie labbed up a couple of percent and a half.
That might come back.
All right.
You might get interrupted again by some random executive order.
We'll see what it does.
But rare earths.
I wonder where a lot of these
are located.
I'd imagine creating new mines is difficult.
I'm surprised that this hasn't
been a part of the trade deals.
Keep America beautiful. Let's build the mines
in Australia
and all these other places.
I'm surprised that hasn't been a part of the trade deals.
Perpetua is called the
Stib Night, and I think it's in Idaho. like 40, somewhere in like North Idaho, I think.
I don't know exactly where.
But again, these are all U.S.-based projects.
But yeah, Perpetua is pre-revenue.
Most of these are also, by the way, since Evan, they're pre-revenue because they're valued off of the assets in the mines that they own, not off of their revenue because the assets are pre-commercial. Again, we don't have a rare metals industry. So the rare metals
assets are going to be largely pre-revenue. Now, some of the names are not, right? Like Materion,
which I own, is not pre-revenue because they're an integrated beryllium producer. They own
basically the global beryllium industry. They're not pre-revenue. In Energy Fuels, they're not
pre-revenue. Although their pilot program in they're not pre-revenue, although their pilot
program in Rare Earths is not a major revenue producing project at the White Mesa Mill.
So important to make those distinctions. And like Perpetual Resources, they are working on
accessing this large golden antimony mine, depending on the valuations you look at,
which could be worth between $3.5 to $4 billion, perpetual resource trading at $1.7 billion market cap. Why? Well, because there's commercialization, there's time in between now
and 2028 when they're supposed to be commercialized. So it's going to be a volatile asset.
USA Rare Earth, they have multiple projects. Obviously, the name helps too, USAR.
Cody, C-O-D-I, Compass Diversified, had uh one of their units have some kind of fraud
issue a couple of months ago and the stock got killed but they also have a rare earth metal asset
which some people are now arguing is worth more than their market cap uh you have uamy which is
another antimony play but they're an antimony refinement not actual antimony mining like
perpetua uh but that stock has gotten a bit
under the rare earth uh stuff idaho strategic resources idr they have a very very speculative
small asset but some people have bid that one up i think that one popped today too like 10 percent
um what am i forgetting about um i'm just going off the top of my head. Oh, Neocorp NB.
That one's a big one too.
That one's, they actually are interesting because of who's investing in them.
Ken Griffin and a couple of others have bought, and it's a very speculative small cap company.
It's not used to seeing Ken Griffin buy into it.
But a couple of other celebrity investors have bought into that one too.
That one's been performing beautifully. Wall Street Engine in our community actually called that out
really early before it started running and made a great, great entry on that one.
So ticker NB on that, Neocorp. So I don't know, I just named what, like 10 names?
names you know mpu ppta nb all these are are ways to play rare earths in the united states it just
depends on which charts you like which assets you like more you know and which stories you like more
but some were revenue producing some are not revenue producing some are close to producing
revenue some are a year and a half away from commercialization. You have to do your own research to distinguish those things. I share my thoughts in our community, obviously, on which ones I'm buying and why I'm buying them. But yeah, I can't imagine a scenario where rare earths don't become a bipartisan priority in the next decade. I literally can't imagine a scenario. It's like the only pain point for the United States globally,
period. It makes no
sense that we would just
put it off.
Once we solve the rare earth problem,
the United States literally cannot be
fucked with. And that's a
big deal.
Because in everything else,
semiconductors,
we are on the process of solving that.
We haven't solved it yet.
We're in the process of solving that.
If TSM could create more like, you know, consistent with the rate of factory deployment they have been over the last five years in the United States, we'll be fine.
We'll eventually have enough two nanometer production domestically that we can wean off our international reliance.
But rare earths, we're not even close.
We're not even fucking close.
Like we're not even within a football field from where we need to be for rare earths.
And everyone who's smart and who studied the industry knows that, including the people in the Trump administration who are recognizing this problem.
They know that, too. They know that too.
They know that we are not ready to let go of China when it comes to rare earths. And that
has to be addressed now. Because could you imagine a wartime scenario with China? They would just
choke us on the rare earths. They'd be like, you're not getting a single drop of rare earths.
That means munitions production,
nuclear weapon production,
aerospace
and defense production of all kinds,
of all kinds.
Semiconductor production,
all of this requires rare earth metals,
and we don't have them domestically.
We have them.
Sorry. We have them. We don't have the infrastructureically. We have them. Sorry. We have them.
We don't have the infrastructure domestically to produce and refine, which is shocking for
the richest country in the world.
And all Americans on both sides of the aisle should be saying this is unacceptable.
We need to address it now.
And I think they will.
I think Democrats will recognize the issue, and I think Republicans will recognize the issue, too.
And I think it'll be a bipartisan policy issue for the next decade.
I can't imagine that getting shot down in Congress, even if they don't have an overwhelming majority.
A measure like that to support U.S. rare earth production. It's good for our communities.
It's good for Americans for in terms of employment. It's good for everything.
It's good to bring back some of the mining communities that have been killed in some of the middle states.
It's great for all that stuff.
So, yeah, we have to do that.
It's got to be top priority.
Are you going to buy any mines?
Doc Tuck, are you making private buy any mines? Doc Tuck, are you making
private investments in mines?
No, I'm too focused on
my ranch right now.
That's fair.
And dealing with the guy in the background?
Yeah. Well, I mean, for this guy,
I would love to get a ranch because he'd run around more
than a ranch. I'd love to take him out to walk
anytime today. Oh, I thought you said
a rant than a ranch. Oh'm going to take them out to walk anytime today. I thought you said a rant than a ranch.
Oh, no. Ranch.
I'm looking. I'm going to wait, though.
Horses?
That's what I want.
How many?
You about to be a horse guy?
I'm about to be a horse guy.
Nice.
Alright.
I think we're at a good place on this one.
We've been going for a while.
You getting it at the gym?
Are you eating during this?
I'm hitting the gym in about 30 minutes.
What's today?
Back and biceps.
Nice.
Alright.
This was a good time.
Anything you want to add?
Anything else?
Any of your stocks?
I'm sure I know we didn't talk about LEU that much.
It had the offering.
Yeah, I don't, I mean, it's kind of going to be,
me going over my stocks is kind of like,
I haven't added too much.
Like I said, outside of Parsons last week
and then Lyft and Fubo recently.
Those are like my most recent ads.
Outside of that, I haven't done much.
I've been pretty chill.
Just sticking with my names.
Genius is almost 13 bucks though, eh?
You see that?
I did not really look and there was a lot of stuff going on. It's almost 13 bucks though, eh? You see that? I did not really look and there was a lot of stuff
going on. It's almost 13 bucks now.
Nice. 1036
is my cost basis. 25%.
Not bad, not bad.
Let's go. Nice.
Lift,
my commons are looking good.
The options that I'm in are not looking great.
Same exact boat with Lift. I'm in my commons are looking okay. The options that I'm in are not looking great. Same exact boat with Lyft I'm in.
My commons are looking okay.
My options are not looking as okay.
They recovered a lot today.
My later dated ones
were on green today.
That was good.
Listen, Lyft is not a coiled thing
in Cold Spring.
It's a nice move.
It's a contrarian story.
The market doesn't like the stock, but I personally think it's too cheap, right?
It's just like, we talked about this the day we talked about it.
I was like, can you name another household name that is growing double digits and trading at one-time sales?
I can't.
So, yeah, we'll see.
Anyway, we'll see you guys tomorrow.
I wonder if Bumble fits those stats.
I don't think Bumble's trading at one-time sales.
I could be wrong.
I have no idea, but I know it was pretty cheap.
Let's see.
All right, I'm out wait one second let me look at this Bumble thing
because it honestly might be
Bumble's definitely not one time sales I mean I'd be surprised
I mean are we talking annual sales?
yeah of course
yeah 1.03 billion dollars
oh they are trading under one time sales
wow are they growing double digits though? At one point, they're $1.03 billion of revenue. Oh, they are trading under one head sales. Wow.
Yeah.
Are they growing double digits, though?
Are they growing double digits?
Give me a second.
Bumble.
Are they growing at all? No. That profitable though yeah but i mean they're not
growing prof not growing yeah growth matters you if you're that small of a company you have to be
growing like there's 750 million market cap you have to be growing. You just have to be. That's like the bottom line requirement for small market caps.
At least be posting some growth.
Like, you know, a lot of small market caps are not profitable.
That's just kind of a write-off.
But, I mean, even Lyft is inflecting in profitability too, right?
Like Lyft posted.
What did Lyft post last quarter?
Yeah, they posted 10 cents positive earnings per share.
Two quarters in a row now.
First two positive quarters in a row.
I don't know.
I don't want people to misinterpret my conviction level on this.
It's not a big position for me, but I do think it's cheap.
And you kind of look where I was at.
We were talking just, hey, if it's going to happen, this is a good area,
good levels, let's test them back. It's like if they're going happen this is a good area good levels it's testing back yeah
it's like it's like if they're gonna sell it down here like okay i'll i'll cut it for a loss and say
whatever but like i just really don't see a reason to sell it down here it's like what are you what
are you selling it for here they're growing their profitability is inflecting up they're trading at
less than one time sales like i mean i don't, I don't know what the details are that go into these earnings hub scores,
but they have an A on that for what that counts for.
I don't know what they factor into this.
It is growth and valuation.
What stock is this again? Sorry.
Lift.
Lift. Okay, yeah.
So what it's going to be is if you look down a little bit,
it's going to be DE, they're saying a little bit so it's going to be de they're saying it's 22 price of sales is one so they're saying it's cheaply valued and then
the growth is 20 and eps growth is there there aren't many basically what you're seeing here is
is one of these set valuation or growth one of them tends to be overvalued one of them tends
to be undervalued for the good companies
for apple truthfully both kind of look bad there's a couple that both look bad
uh but you don't want and there's some where both there's very few rare ones where both look good
and look and look both both valuation and growth are not super strong yeah no exactly yeah so so
that's that's that's interesting to me with lyft i just think it's cheap and if i can get a move to like 18 bucks i'll be happy with it i know that's
maybe a lot to ask for with the stock that's traded this shitty but we'll see
i think it deserves to be trading at over 20 and actually evercore um released a note this no rbc
sorry released a note this morning they reiterated their 21 price target on lyft rbc is royal bank canada they don't know but anyway
their their south side shop is actually very good on u.s stocks but um they said uh post earnings
we did a call with investor relations investor relations gave us a very confident tone while investors
maintained doubt. We hosted Lyft's VP of IR, and we always gear this call after earnings. This is
sort of a conversational piece, so I'm literally reading what he wrote. We always gear this call
around the most pressing investor questions coming out of the print. The key takeaways for me are one, an unfavorable mix continues to be a key
investor concern. And two, the free now season and seasonality and Delta are offset by other
demand drivers within their 13 to 17% booking guidance, which we expect to be an active
tailwind for rider growth in the second half of Q3. Confident tone on insurance renewal with
moderated costs and ride increases are likely sustainable in our view. Ride cost efficiency
targets are way ahead of plan and should normalize, but margin trends consistent year over year,
even including the drag from free now. Cash conversion in 2025 is consistent with 2024.
free now. Cash conversion in 2025 is consistent with 2024. AV capital comments, that's autonomous
vehicle, capital commitments may arise with specific deals, but long-term balance sheet
impact should remain stable. Lyft remains an out-of-favor name in the market. And while
durability of organic growth is certainly a debate, we take the stock reaction on the print
of a reflection of how negative investors really
are. We see no reason to be so negative on a story where we see growth, increasing profitability,
and a staying power within the industry. That's what RBC said this morning. So they're saying,
yes, the stock was red after earnings. Yes, investors clearly are negative on the stock,
but they enumerated a handful of, I think,
very good reasons why it should be trading higher.
And they have a very high, I think they have one of the street high price targets on it
at 21.
And that was just an excerpt from the abstract of the note, because the note was like 20
pages.
So, you know, they really went into detail.
So, yeah, I don't know.
Like I said, I'm not a value guy.
I'm not a this stock is cheap guy. I'm not a, this stock is cheap guy.
I'm not a, um, bottom fishing guy, but sometimes I see stocks that I'm like, man, you know,
there may not be the moving average support here. There may not be bidders here, but it's just too
cheap. And maybe eventually somebody will realize that. And that's kind of how I operate. And I'm
okay with being more patient with those. You know know i know everyone's super impatient stocks down like three
percent one day everyone's like ah what's going on why is it down but i don't really operate like
that so i'm just i keep it even keel we'll see if it works it works it doesn't work it doesn't work
i'll take a little loss on it and move on but that's kind of how i think of all these outside
of my core positions obviously which i think about with a little bit more seriousness and,
I plan out a little bit more,
but yeah,
anyway,
I'm going to go to the gym.
We'll see you guys tomorrow.
I took a little side gamble today on that UNHG earlier.
So we'll see what plays out.
Actually,
I think that's a little bit more positive price action on that thing.
Maybe push it over to 83.
Maybe I'll also get some leaps on it.'ll see all right appreciate you everyone make sure you're following stock
talk make sure you're following the host of the spaces awesome time live every single uh monday
through thursday right now 3 to 5 p.m eastern days like today we're going live we'll see we'll
see what ends up happening here but i appreciate everyone and we'll be back live again tomorrow
have a great one, team. . .
