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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: July 14, 2025 Duration: 2:02:39Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. what is up everyone welcome in to stocks fund spaces i have no voice but i'm trying to get
through the day hope everyone's doing well out there what's's up, Bevan? Yo, yo.
What is up, everybody?
I hope you're excited.
Monday, you know, Emp lost his...
He was screaming buy orders at the New York Stock Exchange,
and then all of a sudden he has no voice anymore.
But no, I'm excited for this conversation.
I have a really cool call that I'm not going to say what it is at 4 to 4.30,
but it's a pretty cool call. So maybe not going to say what it is at 4 to 4 30 but it's like
pretty cool call so maybe one day we'll hear about that soon
it's mr. beast isn't it no no no mr. beast no mr. beast but it is it's with a public company
that everybody up here has probably traded before
Rick's Cabaret right no you never know
what's up em so we should uh we should get into it it's been an interesting day so far we had a
really nice move off the open uh and then we kind of pulled back a little bit at least on the stocks
that i was watching and then it's been a nice trail up uh and recovery throughout the day i'm
seeing qqq up about 0.5 percent voo up about 0.2%. We have a pretty busy week this week. Earnings season is
back. Bank earnings tomorrow, Netflix Thursday, Taiwan Semi, ASML. There's actually a couple
names that report this week. And then on top of that, we also have CPI tomorrow morning.
And then we have PPI Wednesday morning, retail sales. A lot of Fed speakers.
The Fed go into a blackout window on Saturday, I believe.
Or Friday.
Friday or Saturday ahead of their FOMC meeting.
So it'll be a lot of Fed presence speaking this week.
And not only that, they know this will be the last time they could talk before the FOMC meeting.
So I imagine they might go out with a bang or tweet their language in a particular way.
So we have a lot of stuff coming up this week. And we're going to on stocks and spaces for a lot of it i'm excited yeah definitely big week uh finally getting some data finally getting some earnings that's what i'm
most excited about but let's see what everyone out there's trading watching kind of a quiet
grind higher day here we are sitting basically at the highs of day here not not
much movement really kind of going sideways the last few hours but uh options mike let's kick it
over and uh start with you and see uh what's on your mind what were you watching going into today
did you do anything will you sit here and waste a day staring at the screen what's what's going on
hey um uh first feel better Actually, slightly red on today.
I mean, I'm not much, down like $150, but it's been a tough day.
The action today was not the easiest.
Let's call this market what it is.
It's the Teflon market.
Nothing bothers this market.
35% tax on Mexico, 30% tax on Europe, tariff on Europe.
Who cares?
Nobody cares. We don't care right back
up yeah right back up we come we held the eight day perfectly on the spy uh you know tomorrow um
tomorrow we get um what do you call a cpi and that's a big one i mean and i have to think that
the administration has already seen it because they've been beating the hell out of Powell for the last four days and company, and they must already know it's going to be an okay number.
A lot of people think that, you know, inflation will start rearing its head again in this report. I don't. I think it's not yet. The fact that most of the tariffs haven't gotten to effect and won't until August 1st is why I don't think it's going to really show up yet.
Bottom line here is…
That was kind of my thing.
So you call it the Teflon market, but I was curious going into today, it's like we don't even care about tariffs anymore.
Is that what it is?
I mean, is it just shrugged it off literally in the overnight trading session before we even opened today?
I think it's really just the market just doesn't believe that.
Phone was ringing. Sorry. I think the market just doesn't care.
And what I mean by that is the market doesn't believe anything's real until it's real.
So we have just under two weeks, right, to get this sorted out before August 1st.
And, you know, so I think the market's believing it.
Well, until we actually see it, it's not real.
That's my take.
It's just like, yeah, it doesn't really exist until it's real.
I think more importantly this week is to watch.
We have a ton of Fed speakers before the blackout and watch the interactions and what they say and the Trump administration, because it's not just him.
The whole cabinet and other people have been really aggressively going after Powell and company.
So I think that's more interesting to watch here.
If we do get a hot CPI tomorrow, the Fed's going to look great.
If we get a cool CPI tomorrow, the administration's going to look great uh if we get a cool cpi tomorrow the
administration's going to double down on top of them the banks tomorrow are going to kick us off
we're going to get a lot of good stuff going on there you know we'll see if uh jp morgan wells
farg on citigroup can they you know will they give buybacks and dividends because they haven't done it
yet after the stress test and then you look at today you have uh palantir new all-time high today uh the crypto
names really just didn't do much by the way mike i think they did do dividends and buybacks they did
it on like the the news came out friday and then they did it like monday or tuesday after the
i think jp morgan was like a 50 billion dollar share buyback can you hear me my headset just
kid yeah yeah we hear you it's definitely connected to a different one.
But yeah, a couple days after that bank stress test, they did do dividend and buybacks.
Okay.
They were big. At least for JP Morgan.
Mike, sorry, I got a pushback on your comment that you said that
crypto names aren't doing much today. I think you're just looking at the wrong crypto names potentially.
Well, I mean, what's moving today other than the gap up?
What's actually in play to trade today?
The treasury names, SBET is up 15%, was up like 20% at some point today.
UPXI, another treasury name, up 10%.
You know, I'm not into those things about just
day trading it too though he's not talking about the the gap he's talking about the moves during
the session oh yeah the first one i learned that was circle interestingly and i because i know that
people were saying this crypto week and it sounded like it was actually around stable coins i've heard
this 55 times but circle is one of the ones that I actually did see do a little intraday movement.
Entered at one, up six now.
Can anybody hear me?
Yeah, we got you still.
Okay, so I'm having Twitter problems as normal.
I meant day trading.
I meant, you know, if you're looking to trade them today, and it just, like, the gap up was the big part of the move.
Now, I'm sitting in IVIT, so I'm a happy camper.
I understand.
But, I mean, there was not much to do there today.
OKLO has had a huge day.
It just ripped in the last hour all the way up to 61.
Tesla couldn't hold that pop and gave it all back.
I mean, it's just a wishy-washy market as we go into tomorrow.
market as we go into tomorrow.
I'm going to jump off here because I'm not hearing anything and I'll jump back on.
You're good.
We appreciate you.
Let's keep it moving here.
I want to go over to Mr. Brian Lund next.
How are you doing, Brian?
Good, good.
You got any thoughts on what Mike was talking about there?
You got anything you're watching in this market?
Yeah, so on Friday, I exited a lot of names that I had been in for quite a while.
This is something that anyone's been listening to these spaces that I've been on for the last year or two.
You know that when we had what I'm now going to perpetually refer to as tariff gate,
when that started, I thought it was overdone.
I thought the America's century is over narrative was wrong.
But I also wasn't going to try to step in front of a freight train and aggressively trade.
So what I did was I slowly picked up names on that drop.
And I talked about all these names before. But yesterday, or on Friday, I got rid of a lot of them. And you shouldn't just get rid
of names because they're up a lot. That's usually not a good idea. But I just felt like I was too
complacent. I would just, yeah, I'd see the dip in
the morning and then the market would raise by the afternoon and my P&L would be green. And that
just seems like how it's been for the last few months. And even like when we went through the
all-time highs and one of the things I've figured out is that the best indicator in the market is me. Like I use myself as an
indicator. So when I get too complacent, I go, eh, it might be a problem there, right?
So I trimmed some names that look to me like they were a little extended, not that they were going
to crash or have major pullbacks, but that, you know, things that are riding above their 8 EMA
for a long time. Like for example, I trimmed NVIDIA, which I had
been holding for a few months. And I got rid of Amazon. I got rid of AI, got rid of PayPal after
that news from JP Morgan, got rid of a couple other ones. But this morning I got back in some
when the market didn't really do much over the weekend, we had the futures open
negative Sunday night, but they recovered. And everything kind of firmed up and I was able to
get levels from the open that I could trade against. And so I actually ended up hopping
back in some of the names. I didn't buy NVIDIA back. I did buy AI back lower. I bought PayPal back lower.
I bought Amazon back lower. I'm even in some Apple right now. So yeah, yeah. I don't know.
I was going into this week and thinking we might start to see the beginning of a pullback
and maybe we will eventually, but we didn't see it today. And again, if you look at the daily charts,
We didn't see it today.
And again, if you look at the daily charts, they look really primed to go higher.
So yeah, a little bit of a schizophrenic three-day trading period for me.
But that's the thing about trading is I used to be like, if I sold a position, I couldn't
get back into it for like six months for some psychological reason.
But now it's like, I'll sell a position and get right back into it later in the day if
the technicals warrant it.
And so that's what happened on a number of names for me today.
Brian, go for it.
Yeah, I was going to ask the trading side of the question.
Brian, when you come into a day like today where you basically had a gap down, but it was on its way back up and it's been a slow grind.
Do you just close the screen and walk outside and check back in every hour or so? How do you
approach one of these days like this where there's not really a downside catalyst? I guess
maybe you had a downside catalyst that got shrugged off completely and it's just a slow
grind to the upside. Do you just pull back for the day or how do you handle a day like
today? So it depends on so many different factors, not the least of which is like how I'm feeling
personally. You know, am I focused that day? Do I have other stuff going on in my life? But this is
a great question and here's why. If you go on to Fintwit or StockTwits or whatever form you want to, everybody can throw up a chart.
Like it's not hard to throw up a chart.
When I first got on Fintwit, there were people that, you know, needed to know, you needed to know some technical analysis, right?
You needed to really have a background in order to talk intelligently about chart setups and things like that.
And just because of the nature of information, it's so much out.
There's so much out there.
A lot of the people that are on FinTwit today are just mimicking, like they don't really
have a, you know, they don't have a five, 10, 20 year background in technical analysis.
So they can put up the same chart I do.
Right.
And if they're just better at marketing
or they're slicker or they have better graphics, people will gravitate towards them. So the dirty
secret about trading is it's not the daily charts that make you money. It's the intraday charts.
Because you can't just freeze the
market and say, okay, I want to get on based on this daily candle. You have to find a spot intraday.
So the long, long winded answer to your question is what I try to do is I try to find intraday
setups, levels that I can trade against. So for example, you know, on Apple this morning, you got this run down to the lows, right?
And then you get a bounce and then you get a little bit of a higher low.
All right.
That's a level, right?
So when you get that higher low at 208, if you want to, you can take a long position there
and you can either stop yourself out below that higher low, which is a really tight stop.
It's maybe 20 cents, or you can stop it below the low of the day, which is more like 50 cents, right? But you know, you have a relatively
good idea of where you would be wrong. The other thing that I key off of intraday on days like this,
or when I'm trying to fine tune an entry, are the previous days high high, previous day's low, and the previous day's close. And the reason why
is because those are key spots where buyers and sellers are having a fight. Because that's all
stock movement is about. It's about more buyers or more sellers. And they get into equilibrium
at certain areas, and they reverse the trend, right? So if you can get past an area where they
were in equilibrium, that tells you who's in charge, right? If you go below the low of the
previous day, that means, oh, sellers are in charge. If you get back above the high of the
previous days, buyers are in charge. And I'm talking in generalities. There are so many
little fine-tuned things here. So I'm just looking to find spots that give me the best chance of success, meaning that when
I get in on the entry, it's going to go in my direction, but give me the most obvious spots
where I know I'll be wrong so I can manage my risk and then not have to look at every single
stock and every single tick.
Yeah, that's where I think a lot of traders as they're developing and learning,
one of the hardest things is to not force things
on a day like today.
A lot of times you get to that first level
of you find winners,
but then it's a day like today where you do too much
and you have a bad day trying to do too much.
So I was just picking your brain there a little bit.
Evan, I thought you might've had another question
you wanted to throw back at Brian as well.
No, we'll circle back down to it.
I think that was a really good one, yeah.
Hey, real quick before you go,
let me just add onto that last part you said.
One of the ways you can help eliminate that, right?
Where you get too scatterbrained,
you're too overtrading.
I think a lot of traders come in the morning,
they go, okay, I'm just going to trade. I try to trade from a fixed list that I make the night
before. And I make it the night before because it's quiet and I can focus and I can pay attention.
And then I don't really go outside that list during the day. Now, the trade-off is you're
going to miss some things, right? Some things are going to go. And if you have big FOMO,
but if you're just concentrating on your seven to 10 best setups every day, then you don't have to
worry that you're looking at too many things or you're not going to catch something. You put some
alerts in it at spots that make sense. And then you let price come to you instead of chasing price
all across the market. Yeah, I appreciate that. That's one thing i just know as a trader i went through it
for a long time you know trying to force stuff on days like today and get myself upside down
i just love for myself and for the audience both just kind of picking the minds of these
different traders of okay how do you approach this how do what how do i get inside of europe
rain you know somebody that's for this can't appreciate that, Brian.
You've got to stop saying just traders, traders and investors.
We've got a lot of...
We do have both.
That's why I wanted to bring Tom into it, too, I know.
Stock talk will be maybe just a longer-term trader,
but I did want to talk that.
Tom, how are you doing?
I appreciate that.
I don't mind when people just say traders
because it's like almost this automatic way
of referencing people in the market.
But yeah, I'm good.
Happy to see Palantir riding high again.
I'm kind of known as the Mac Daddy
of the Palantir retail community.
retail community and so it's always like fun to see the green and but i think it's more important
So it's always fun to see the green.
to kind of follow the whole journey here because it's kind of easy to forget how the pricing of
the share kind of went through these cycles of the past few years and it's really fun to look at
what's going on right now but i think it's important to learn
from 2022 because nobody guarantees that this thing will last nobody knows how long this euphoria
cycle continues and i think if if you want to do your homework if you want to make money for the
next five years you have to learn from the history right so right now it's beautiful you know i can
give you all the numbers in the world right we can talk about you know fundamentally the company doubling revenues over the past three
years the free cash flow is up 500 of the past three years and all that and i can explain why
the high p ratio doesn't really matter that much for a company that's in hyper growth
ratio doesn't really matter that much for a company that's in hyper growth and just you know
the 40 revenue growth and whatnot but and here's what i want to kind of use this few minutes i have
on stage to kind of educate here's the thing so palantir went through a hype cycle
back in 2021 a lot of people that are in the market right now were not part of that hype cycle
so in 2021 as we started buying palantir at the dpo at about 10 within a year reddit basically
took it um i think it was wall street but they basically took the stock to like 35 without within a year so they three and a half x the stock price in a year or so and in 2021 we 35 lots of euphoria lots of excitement
a lot of um so-called dumb money right very little institutional investors i think about a 25
institutional 75 retail right and the rock pull came of course in 2022 the stock
price dropped from 35 all the way to below seven to six and a half dollars per share
most of these investors um they got washed out of the market entirely a lot of them are no longer
in the market a lot of them you know did the wrong thing so notice notice this, right? So who made the money?
Like everybody now flaunts,
oh, I've made 10X, 15X, 20X on Palantir.
But there's two groups of people, right?
The ones who came into 2022
knowing what they own,
understanding the business of Palantir,
building their own conviction
based on their own research
and understanding, hey,
this is a huge discount
on a really good product.
And there's the second group who bought it because of the height, because of
somebody told them because they watched a video on YouTube, because they heard
somebody say it's a great stock because the stock went up a million different
things, right?
So the second group that did not have a built in conviction internally, right?
They got wrecked and because they had no foundation
the house literally flew the tornado blew the house it was like you know the story with the
piglets right the house is gone so they they saw that the worst possible time while the people who
had the conviction understood what they own and were not afraid to double down they are the ones
you're seeing today kind of flaunting the success and sharing the screenshots
and whatnot right so my lesson from this to you guys is like number one I made a
video on YouTube nine months ago saying it's not too late to buy Palantir and
I'm saying again today it's not too late to buy palantir again however okay um i expect
because the market is a very cyclical beast and if you have been in the market for long enough
you know that these cycles they continue so you have you know optimism euphoria then the you know
the collapse and whatnot the cycle will repeat itself because it does it it's just the way the market is wired right so there will be at
some point a euphoria busting kind of process in which stocks like palantir with high beta
and very very hyped up stocks like palantir or nvidia or tesla or tesla maybe not as much
because a lot of it was already kind of played out. But Palantir in particular is going to get the most wet out of this.
And I expect that when this happens,
there's going to be another discount cycle on Palantir.
Not six and seven like we had in 2022,
but there's going to be a significant discount at some point, right?
And I think what people need to be doing right now
is not trying to chase the stock price right now.
People buying it up at 150 are crazy, thinking they missed out. But rather slowly, dollar cost doing right now is not trying to chase the stock price right now. People buying it up 150 are crazy, thinking they missed out, but rather slowly dollar
cost averaging right now, little amounts, just a tiny bit, just nibbling and waiting
for the time where the cycle plays itself out and then trying to BCA dollar cost
average a little bit more aggressively, right?
Not when it's peaking, not when it's going parabolic, but when it's correcting again, because the corrections is like, if you tell me, hey,
there's not going to be another correction. You're just going to go straight to 500.
It's not going to happen. This is not how the stock market works, right? So I think what the
right mindset for investors right now that are interested in Palantir is to do as much research
as possible, build conviction, understand the business,
understand what the company is doing different today versus three years ago, what's the plan
for the next five years, and build the conviction, slowly dollar-cross average at little amounts,
and then wait until the correction happens.
And then you can start piling in as everybody else will be just basically bailing on it,
just the way it happened this year. In February,, if you remember the same thing happened in February, the stock dropped like 50% in, in the span of a few weeks.
And it dropped all the way from 120 to 65 or 70.
Right.
A lot of people didn't use that opportunity because they didn't have the conviction.
So for me, if you ask me, Hey, what should I do in this market?
You shouldn't be chasing high
top stocks you should be using this time to learn study improve your conviction get cash in order
slowly they say that's possible but basically just prepare yourself mentally and financially
and emotionally for the time where the opportunity will present itself again just like it did in
february this year okay and that's the most important part,
even though it's very popular to talk about how great and yeah,
we can talk about that. No problem.
But I think that as an educators here on the platform,
that's what we should be for the longterm investors.
That's the service we should be providing kind of explaining that.
And that's what I'm kind of trying to do in my community as well.
So I hope it kind of puts to do in my community as well so I hope it
kind of puts you guys in the right headspace
I appreciate you Tommy you should definitely feel free to jump into the
the rest of the conversation whenever you feel to and hopefully we can yeah
keep talking I definitely don't want this to just be like the the small day
trading thing although that is definitely
a big part of this and yeah i would love to talk about the kind of by the way i'll give you a little
anecdote evan yeah what's up so i had a conversation with a big big financial publisher i'm not gonna
name any names but a huge financial publisher four years ago and they said look we'd love to work
with you but your long-term investing stick, it's not going to work. People want trading.
When trading, your thing is irrelevant.
I said, okay, we'll see.
I guess people like long-term investing after all.
Yeah, no, there definitely is an angle for it.
I want to ask you a question, actually.
Stock Talk comes on here.
He's actually doing a little bit of a trip this week, so he may not be here as much.
But he'll come in and argue that everyone on here really is's actually doing a little bit of a trip this week, so he may not be here as much. But he'll come in and
argue that everyone on here really is just a
trader. That you really are maybe
a long-term investor, quote-unquote, but you're really
kind of maybe more of like a swing trader on it.
Because, you know, you're taking an
active stake in it. You have any thoughts on that?
Do you reject that?
He's not entirely wrong.
I love Stock Talk.
And I think when you boil it down, yes, it has a lot of merit to it.
What I think he's talking about is that for most people, you know the saying that investing time horizons, they extend to infinity in bull markets and they shrink to 24 hours in the bear market, right?
So a lot of people think they are long-term investors when the feet hit the shan so to speak
right they're they kind of become traders and vice versa right and there are there are certain
people who are like me and what we're trying to build is i'm trying to think of my investing
journey as a way to build up my pension okay so just as i'm trying to think of my investing journey as a way to build up my pension. Okay. So just as I'm trying to set myself up for retirement, I'm not trying to buy a McMansion or a plane or a Lambo.
I'm saving up so that when I retire, I can retire comfortably.
Okay.
So I'm not trying to monetize or create liquidity or to get out, get in.
To me, it's very, very simple.
I'm an uber long-term investor, not because I think it's morally better.
There's more than one way to make money in the stock market, of course.
But for me, the game is very simple.
If we know for a fact that good companies thrive in the stock market long term, right?
Short term, anything can happen.
Traders know this way better than me, right?
But if long term, the stock market does better every single year, right?
You have the number of green days in the stock market is 54%.
The number of green years is 75%.
The number of green decades is 95%.
The number of 20-year periods who are green are 100%, right?
So if you know that as a fact, right, then your only variable becomes selecting the companies.
Then the only way you can kind of screw up is by investing in bad companies.
I argue that it's a lot easier to improve your due diligence process to pick better companies than to predict the market so entry
points exit points and timing the market in my opinion is a lot harder than to just study
fundamentals because i can look at it and the company can say hey revenue is good you know
free cash flow is good and the ceo is great it's a lot easier to analyze quality than timing the
market so that you'd be surprised but there's a growing group of
people like me who look at this as yeah this is for age 65 and above we're not touching this money
we're just trying to stay in and we literally won't sell unless the thesis breaks right or you
know some life happens and you need the money all of a sudden for some emergency but our group
literally is like that we won't sell unless the
thesis is gone or some life event happens but uh for for 90 of retail investors stock is right
yeah i i think to an extent they're all traders
i appreciate you tom definitely feel free to uh to jump back into the conversation
uh i want to keep us moving a little and bring Ali into it.
I know, Ali, you're coming up here once a week,
so we'll pull you up to the line a little bit.
It's actually an interesting time.
It's an interesting week.
I know you're covering a lot of stuff
over at Yahoo Finance,
but the Fed is one of them.
We have CPI tomorrow.
We have PPI the next day.
We also have...
This is the last week
that all these Fed presidents could speak
before their blackout window ahead of the next meeting. So I don't know if they, like, I feel like they would maybe come
out and like say more controversial things. But what are you watching going on this week? What's
most relevant for you? Is it that CPI? Yeah, I mean, CPI earnings as well. I mean, we're going
to get into the thick of earnings with the big banks kicking us
off tomorrow.
So I think really for the next six months, the thing that will hold this rally up is
going to be corporate America.
And that comes in the form of earnings.
We know if earnings start to deteriorate, that doesn't bode well for any type of rally.
So I'm excited to see how these various companies, these various sectors perform. Of course,
we're entering at a time when there's a pretty low bar when it comes to earnings expectations.
I've asked strategists too, what does that mean if we cross that very low bar? It's artificial
in some ways, but they told me, hey, it's never easy, especially in this environment.
We've seen several Wall Street strategists raise their respective price
targets. They've talked about how resilient corporate America has been, how they've been
able to insulate themselves from a lot of this uncertainty. And that's been a key factor here.
I've also talked to folks that are a little more bearish and say that underneath the surface,
there are cracks in the labor market, there's slowdowns there. And if jobs really start to
deteriorate, if people start to lose their jobs, that could spell trouble as well. But we don't
seem to be in that area yet. It's something obviously the Fed is hyper-focused on. And I
think whatever we see tomorrow on the inflation front is going to probably reaffirm their higher for longer stance in the near term, how they're
not likely to move anytime soon. And that's been a big debate that I've been curious about and
talking to sources about is when will the Fed cut interest rates and how will markets react if we
don't see a cut this year at all? And it feels like markets are a little bit more accustomed to being in this
higher for longer rate environment than they are to seeing really bad earnings from NVIDIA,
for example. So that'll just be an interesting story to continue to track there. But obviously,
a big week, and it sets us up to the thick of earnings season, and especially when those big tech companies start to report in a couple weeks too.
I was watching the betting markets,
and actually now they have for the September meetings.
The CME FedWatch tool still has a cut,
but the betting markets now has zero cut,
zero change as the most likely outcome for that September meeting too,
which did start to change a little bit over the last, has zero cut, zero change as the most likely outcome for that September meeting too, which
did start to change a little bit over the last, I don't know, it's been volatile. But yeah,
that's where that market's at right now. We'll see. That's where this whole conversation ends
going to. Yeah, there's a lot of hot takes out there. I've sort of have been in this camp that
I don't know if the Fed's going to cut this year. And that might not be such a bad thing, because if you think about why they're cutting,
that's really more important than how many cuts we get, whether it be 25, 50, 75.
If we're cutting for good news, that's great.
But if we're cutting for bad news, I think fundamentally, that's not a solid thing for
this rally at all.
So that's another thing investors need to think about is why is the Fed making these moves?
Because sometimes it's better not to see a cut depending on the reason.
Yeah, that is definitely true.
I think Powell also knows that.
I wonder if we get to the point of this shadow fat as I'm saying this,
but Powell definitely knows what's coming after him.
And, you know,
you're even seeing these forecasts of how many rate cuts they see next year.
And that definitely has to have some Powell into it.
I'm curious to see how that conversation ends up shifting of, you know,
do we end up saying, Hey, December,
that's going to be the only rate cut this year.
I wonder if we get more and more people of these banks end up coming and saying that.
I don't think that's the consensus really for many of them.
There's a couple saying it, but definitely not a consensus.
No, no.
The consensus on Wall Street is that we're going to see some cuts likely in September,
maybe December, as you said as well.
So, yeah, I agree.
I think that's going to be an interesting journey
and how markets digest it too
is something I have my eye on.
Other people can definitely jump in.
I don't know if I said that last time,
but one thing I do also,
CPI is the event we're really looking forward to this week.
CPI seems to be the market's favorite inflation gauge.
I know the Fed comes in and says PCE or some form of PCE,
whatever they have missing in it,
is what the Fed actually goes in and looks at.
But the market does seem to move the most off of this CPI.
Obviously, with PCE, people might end up talking about it.
Earnings are probably going to end up being a big language.
Earnings are also something that, Ali, I want to get your thoughts on.
You mentioned it a little bit there. Last earnings season, what were you
going to say on some of these earnings calls besides we don't know? And you still might have
that as much, but even early signs showing companies are a little bit more confident to
give forward guidance. So I think that there's going to be a lot more of a focus on company
specific earnings this earnings season, as opposed to the last one.
I was curious of your thoughts on that.
There's still uncertainty, but it's definitely a lot less than last time.
Oh, a lot less than last time.
We seem to have reached peak uncertainty.
And you already started to see that, right?
Delta reinstating guidance.
Levi's came out, and they had strong guidance.
So now the expectation is you need to beat, raise, reinstate guidance. It has always
been an important thing for Wall Street, but I think investors gave companies a bit of a pass
last earnings season because of all the uncertainties and all the unknowns. And like
you said, there really wasn't anything else to say, but hey, we're preparing as best we can, but we really don't know what the future holds. Now that we have the taco trade seemingly alive and well on Wall Street, now that companies have a bit more of an idea of where things are going, they are going to have to come out and say, this is what we're accounting for, here's our plan A, here's our plan B, here's our plan C, and these account for all
the variety of ways that tariff policy and trade policy could change under the Trump administration.
I think that is also going to be key. Just having a company that has an agile backup plan
would give investors confidence, in my view. And I spoke with the Levi's CFO shortly after his earnings. And I asked him that specifically because the guidance that they had was accounting
for, I think it was 30% tariffs on China, 10% on the rest of the world. And I said, okay,
but what happens when maybe that is not the case and we see a variety of different tariff rates?
And he said that that's exactly what his team is working on, making sure that they have different types of scenarios played out. And as things continue to develop,
which we even saw over the weekend, that they're prepared to pivot. So just a willingness to pivot,
a preparedness to pivot is going to be key on these earnings calls. And the elephant in the
room too, maybe not so much the elephant in the room,
it's pretty obvious at this point, but AI. I mean, artificial intelligence has been such a key part to this rally, I think. And a big part of why we're seeing a lot of these
mega cap tech stocks like NVIDIA now trading at a 4 trillion valuation. And we'll have Netflix,
kind of the first of the big tech players coming out next week.
How are those companies doing?
Because we're seeing tech trade at record highs.
We know that the AI boom has been a big productivity focus for the economy in general.
So that's also, I think, a big conversation point on earnings calls is how are folks integrating AI into their systems?
How is this making them more efficient? How is this making them more efficient?
How is this helping them with earnings? And then when you talk about the big tech players coming
up and those hyperscalers, what does that AI demand look like? Are they aggressively spending?
We have seen that pretty consistently. I think it's something that Wall Street has now come to
expect. So any big deviations from that is going to serve as a bit of a surprise.
So any big deviations from that is going to serve as a bit of a surprise.
I appreciate you, Ali.
I want to circle Wolfie into the conversation a little bit too.
Wolf, you got any thoughts on what Ali was talking about there?
You got any thoughts on the CPI, the news we got this week,
earning season being back?
What are you watching for this week?
I'm watching, not this week, but I'm watching
if I have a wrinkle for you.
Can we get odds on
whether or not Powell ever go
anything besides purple tie before he's done?
It's his
final one. I like that.
I like those odds. Let's see if we can get
what is the odds maker that people
use called, Evan?
Polymarket.
Maybe you guys
could do a little combo with
them. Get that going.
I think Allie and I kind of agree
for the most part on the
tariff stuff.
I've been saying it the entire
time. I don't think he's going to
budge, and I think he's going to try to kind of force, you know, an exogenous hand if there is one but I don't I don't think he's going to run the risk of tarnishing his legacy for just just someone wanting him to do something.
You can argue that the economy is fine.
You can argue that the markets are fine.
You can argue that it's easier to cut in a fine market or in a reactionary, you know, if something bad happens than it is to preemptively cut.
end of 2018 uh when Powell started to hike he basically got walked basically a walk back because
the market started to sell off at the end of the year and Trump just kind of you know lost his
lost his head and uh just started barking on Twitter and then the Fed just kind of
slipped it into at the beginning of the year which kind of hurt us uh on the back of COVID right we
didn't have as much slack as we'd like
from a race perspective, and they ended up cutting, you know, an emergency cut or whatever. But
it would have been, it would have been nicer to have had a higher base to cut from. So I think
from that, as far as that conversation goes, I think that's my opinion um you know i take the push on one cut for the year
that's uh i'm still there uh unless you have a real you know economic something happens as
calamitous but outside of that i'm sticking with that one cut situation um i do think that the one
the one cut could be you know 50 points just to kind of assuage things but i if that's the case
i think it'd be like the end of the year but i'm sticking with the one uh i do have a little bit of
antidotes for you we've gone 55 trading days now without closing below our 20 day and that's that's
at around 61 45 so this is the longest streak since jan of 2021, which was 56 days.
So close today, close tomorrow, we break it.
It's the fourth longest streak in the last 30 years.
So the longest streak was in 1997.
Generally, what I try to do is I try to give the most generalized information I give this
the most people information i give this like the most people
could use so um i don't i don't think that you know trying to top tick or bottom tick you know
works for most people but i do think that when you get you know things like this it kind of tells
you where you are on the extremes and then from that do whatever you want right so um yet cpi tomorrow
i don't think that will get anything crazy because i don't think some of these prices go into effect
till later i think options mike mentioned that um but i do think that what what this administration
has shown you now twice is the stock market is basically their scoreboard, or their playing field, whatever metaphor you want to use,
where they kind of use the extremes
to push one way or the other.
So, you know, 55 days above the 20-day,
I haven't gone below it.
That's not to speak that it's going to be,
okay, because that happened, now we got to sell off.
That's not the point of this.
The point of it is, where do you want to start lightening up and where do you want to start bulking up, right?
And so I've been in the camp for about a week, week and a half now, where I'm not trying to get too cute with anything.
You know, I've traded idiosyncratic things.
I've mentioned them on this space.
Some of them have been awesome.
Hopefully people have been able to profit. I've been able to profit other people been in the same
similar names i still have positions i'm not saying sell everything but i'm just saying
generally 55 days it's it's where any little thing can kind of just push it the other way so
that's that's i start there the second part is uh it's also not a longer term sign of weakness.
These last instances that I mentioned resolve in a bullish sentiment.
So if I go back to 2021, we basically peaked,
and then we bottomed off of the low that we set two days later,
rallied, but then eventually made a new low,
I think, within the next month. 1997 was the strongest of the last 30 years. It was 76 days.
After it did that, it went sideways for six months, right? And then in other instances,
it's kind of the same thing it goes sideways
it gives back and it takes off whatever but the point is that up into the right works until up
into the right doesn't work um i think you know most people have kind of had the same thing you
want to pay attention to the rotations you want to be in things that are for me i like to say i like to be in things that are idiosyncratic boring uh you know not really looked at as much uh i've mentioned
several names but then also i've noticed and i've mentioned this as well a lot of these themes they
basically get uh it's kind of like a baton so you have the bitcoin names go first then the ethereum
stuff go and then like the second order
derivative stuff of that and then like coinbase goes one week then mstr goes another right um and
then the same thing with some of these space names you had like the asts and that side of things go
and then the baton got handed off to to rocket lab and and so on and so forth and that kind of just
makes the most painful trade for people who are negative or
under positioned or any of that stuff because you don't have this like all at once thing and so like
it's kind of like uh the cartoon where there's a crack in the dam the guy plugs it with his finger
and then the water goes elsewhere and then eventually it just it just breaks right but we
we have all these things that are coming we have this seasonality thing in the second half
of july and into um september so from my perspective at this point if you didn't benefit
from you know nvidia up what was it up off the lows like 55 and just just to name one for example
and some of these other names i i wouldn't chase them i'd kind of like set levels where i want to
enter things and set levels where i want to trade things and set levels where I want to trade things.
And then I'm just trying to trade around things, especially with earnings season coming up.
You mentioned blackout period.
Also, you have the buyback blackout period as well.
So some of this bid that kind of sits in the market because of this passive slow from a buyback perspective, that gets pulled off for earnings for some of these names.
So, you know, we got the banks tomorrow, got Netflix in a couple of days. slow from a buyback perspective that gets pulled off for earnings for some of these names so you
know we got the banks tomorrow got netflix uh in a couple days you got the cpi tomorrow i i don't
think i don't think we're gonna be surprised by the cpi i'm more interested in what jamie diamond
has to say because a lot of a lot of the color he speaks to people listen to uh and i'm also
interested in netflix because Netflix a couple of quarters ago
gave us a surprise where, you know,
you had Stock Talk waxing for like 10 minutes
about he doesn't know how the street got it so wrong.
It was like that shocking of a beat.
And then this time around,
it could set up for a situation where it's, you know,
not really much was added. It's just ho a situation where it's, you know, not really much was added.
It's just ho-hum. And then, you know, some people could just kind of use it to ring the register.
But outside of that, I'm not saying to go pass shorts into all-time highs. I'm just saying, like,
look for things that are, you know, setting up that haven't participated for some time. I'll
give you an example. Take a look at some of you
guys talked about it earlier. Take a look at some of these nuclear names. A lot of them went and
retested their prior all-time highs, kind of based for a little bit. Broke out today on a headline,
like a headline suggesting that we're going to cut the red tape for some of these nuclear
projects and the deregulation will kind of create this energy boon in America, right?
So you get these headlines generally
and then people kind of chase them.
I don't know if it means that it's going to be a one-off.
I don't know if they're going to be any follow-through,
but some of these names went back
to their previous all-time highs held.
And now that, you know,
some of them are pressing back into their all-time highs.
CCJ, I think someone talked about earlier.
Oclo is another one.
SMR is another one.
If you're someone who's not like, you know,
I don't want to chase these pre-rev or some of these high-flyer multiple names,
there's other ways for you to participate.
And I've mentioned it before as well.
So FLR, for example, Floor, it's an industrial company.
It's not just one thing.
It owns like, I think, 60% of SMR.
So there's a lot of different ways to play it.
Another name I mentioned is take a look at like Duolingo, right?
Momentum name.
Traded back basically to the penny, back to its prior high,
and it's 200-day kind of held there.
So I think at this point, you kind of have to, if you haven't,
if you've got a lot of winners, you've got to figure out how much you're willing to risk should we get back to the 20-day, right?
So if we already get back to the 20-day, and eventually we will, it's just a matter of when, not if, we're currently about 125 points from there. So, you know, and if you take,
if you just pull up a chart
and take a look at it,
20 day basically sits
at that prior all time high level.
So from, from a,
from a trading perspective,
if you're, if we're able to get there
and just kind of base,
that's your floor.
That's your floor that you want to trade from
outside of that.
And then you get, you get,
you know, the other moving averages,
50, 200, whatever.
But, you know, either for me,
either try to buy breakouts as they happen, all time high breakouts, or I want to trade against
the floors. And, you know, Evan, I've been telling you for, I've been telling you for weeks,
I'm looking for the boomers. I'm looking for the oracles, the ciscos, the honeywells, the GEs,
you know, those names. Those are the ones I like to trade in this environment currently,
mostly because they're triple digit names. And I can get more bang for my buck from an options
perspective. And then the second, the second wing of that is anytime we get some of these,
these high flyer momentum names, take a look at SBET, for example, I mentioned SBET and several
other people have mentioned it. I mentioned it on this space, trading at like nine and a quarter,
nine and a half, something like that, trading against this 200-day.
The stock itself went to 27 in a straight line.
And then the options, it depends on what strike.
I mean, I kept rolling up and ended up with a 2,000% return.
So as long as you're kind of like got your head on straight
and you're not chasing and you're not doing any of that stuff,
you're going to have you know got your head on straight you're not chasing and you're not doing that stuff you have a lot of opportunities um i think you the last thing i'll say is this blackout period for the fed i just look for any kind of you know any kind of mic drop situation before then
um because i think that could possibly stir up a back and forth with the administration, especially.
I think Trump's got his fall guy.
He's going to try to have his fall guy.
And so long as they're in a quiet period, it's a perfect time to kind of just bang on him.
But I'll stop there.
Ali, I want to get your thoughts on that last point.
You think we get any, like, Fed president hopefuls telling, you know, the day before, I think we get any like fed president hopefuls telling you know
day before i think we should cut by 50 points we got any bombshells coming up
i mean i wouldn't mean it happens honestly ever like this last week before an fomc blackout kind
of then taking the time to actually like be a little bit more meaningful with their last
statements obviously you don't fully know that but we we kind of could tell. Yeah, you know, I wouldn't be totally surprised. I feel
like it's it's nothing surprises me anymore, especially this year. I just feel like there
are so many things that have happened with this administration. You know, President Trump does not
hold back in his posts on true social, you know, consistently calling for rate cuts, calling Pal, too late, Pal. And like
you were saying, there's a lot of Fed officials that are gunning right now for that top job. And
Michelle Bowman, one of those, for example, who's talked about the need for more rate cuts. But
I think it's important to also remember that whoever becomes the next Fed chair,
member that whoever becomes the next Fed chair, they're not the only one making this decision.
The FOMC is comprised of multiple Fed officials. There are multiple members here, and ultimately,
the majority have to be aligned. So just because we get a more dovish Fed chairman doesn't
necessarily mean that that's going to immediately lead to a ton of interest
rate cuts. So I think that's important to keep in mind too, is yes, you're going to see a lot
of different names jockeying for this job. Ultimately, it's going to come down to the
president and who he thinks is best positioned at that specific moment in time. But I know it's important, but I think investors also
have to remember that this isn't the end-all be-all when it comes to interest rates. And
ultimately, the data is going to have to show that we're in a position where we can cut,
whether that be for good news, like inflation moderating and these one-time price increases
from tariffs, which is something that Fed Chair Powell has even said is something we could see. Of course, there's an expectation
and there's a possibility that we won't see that. Or for bad news where the growth picture slows
down, where the unemployment rate ticks up. And that's a whole other side of the story that
I do think you need to keep a close eye on, especially with immigration policies
and how those immigration decisions could have the unemployment rate be kept artificially low.
So that is something that I've been reading a lot of commentary about that maybe that's a bit
underreported at this point in time, especially with tariffs just continuing to dominate the
conversation here. So yeah, nothing would surprise me anymore, but I think it's just
good to keep perspective at the same time. I appreciate you, Allie. Anyone else has any
thoughts on this Fed conversation we're having? Feel free to jump in. I was curious myself if we
start seeing some more pandering it
seems like we've seen some of the comments that have come out kind of like yeah you know maybe i
want to position myself for the future so i don't know i think it's a very good question evan
i think i think the closer that you get to uh the end of the year the more of that pandering and jockeying you're gonna get
um i think nobody wants to in an ambiguity well not nobody i'm sure somebody will but uh most
don't want to uh do the thing that kind of disrupts the status quo or disrupts um certainty
or clarity um i don't think that the rates picture is the issue as much as the
clarity part. And I think, you know, kind of coming out and creating contradictory statements
that are basically from a positioning standpoint, I think kind of sets people up for,
you know, a more opaque Fed, which the Fed doesn't like to be, in my opinion.
At least that's how they've handled it the last 10 years.
They try to be as like opaque as possible, but in unison, not like against the grain
with one another so that you've got multiple people saying multiple things at any given
time.
time um that's just that's just the way they've been uh from the last 10 years in my opinion
That's just the way they've been from the last 10 years, in my opinion.
if we see any direct drastic drastic changes to it i wonder if that breaks
that's what i would go in through my mind if you have a fed chair up there saying yeah we
didn't cut here but we really should have the fed's stupid i wonder if they're that'd be a wild
time yeah and markets would definitely react off of that.
Just like we see markets react with a lot of the posts that Trump has.
If we had a Fed chair come out and the press conference and say that,
I definitely think you would see that immediate reaction in stocks.
I would not think that's the base case though,
but I don't think you can be like that.
That definitely can't happen at this point.
Maybe in the past, but it's an interesting time totally totally agree totally great i appreciate you
ali and again i want to keep saying this everyone feel free to jump in the conversation where you
guys want to um let's get over to logical next i know it's taking us a little bit different
direction more back toward the trading uh logical i think every single day i see these like right
now that i'm kind of looking and know you're trading them,
I'm seeing these, like, random small biotech headlines,
like three or four of them every day.
But what's going on in your world, sir?
What's the approach for you?
Yeah, a whole lot going on.
For one, dude, I have a lot of comments.
One, today SPY is up 16 bps, so it's up 0.16% on the day.
First off, I love the red bps. So it's up point 16% on the day.
First off, I love the red to green.
Everyone's crying overnight with the futures.
It's I love the red overnight futures because it gives you an opportunity to get red to
green, which is pretty bullish.
Don't short it, don't market.
It doesn't matter.
Low volume, you know, things look constructive and it's a summer low volume lull period because
there's people on vacation.
So that's pretty normal.
Look at IWM today outperforming by a lot, up 0.65% today.
New highs of day right here at the end of the day.
XBI plus 1.4% on the day.
Like to see that.
It's actually been outperforming SPY on a one-month basis.
A lot of the bios have been, yeah, for sure doing good.
You know, you guys talked about SBET.
I closed out my trade in that today.
I posted my actual brokerage statement today.
You can go see it on my Twitter
because when I talk about these things,
I'm very serious about what I do.
I closed out $24,600 in profits in just a single week.
So I'm very, very happy with that trade.
I have a lot of positions open right now.
You know, probably more than I'd like,
but the opportunity set is amazing right now.
For example, I'm up 3.3% on the day, very much outperforming the S&P.
But that kind of volatility in my portfolio is definitely going to lead to certain days
where I'm underperforming by a lot as well.
So I think what's key if you really want to have big outperformance is to be able to stomach
volatility.
So that's a big thing for me.
I've been beating up a lot of my top positions lately.
I'm still very constructive on Pubmatic here.
It's been a couple days.
It reclaimed the 200 day for a day.
Fell below today, finding support here at the 90 MA.
But if you look at that volume um you know the green
days have been much bigger than the red days love to see that as i said they have a very similar
tailwind to magnite so i've been leaning into that um there's a lot of things going on man
uh in the bio world i really like this name uh day one uh ticker Dawn. Those technicals are shaping up.
The stock is extremely cheap.
I'm just kind of looking through my list because there's so many.
But yeah, I think these treasury names and the crypto treasury names are obviously very strong.
What has been pretty smart probably is to take a basket approach and to figure out which ones are really acting well.
Obviously, SBET has been doing extremely well.
I had four different lotto plays.
Today, I closed out SBET and two or three other ones, and I decided to consolidate and concentrate in one of them.
and i decided to consolidate and concentrate in one of them um the other one that i'm in right now
it looks a lot like s bet it did at the 14 price uh this is upxi upexi uh today closing above the
21 ema so it actually reclaimed the 200 day and the 21 EMA today. The volume is absolutely gorgeous. There's still a gap fill up to around eight and change stocks at six bucks
right now. So I beat up that position. You know, but again,
you have to just be very cognizant of the environment we're in right now.
And, you know, something could work today and lose steam tomorrow.
My main concern for a lot of these treasury names which are really what's
working with momentum is that there's you know they're popping up left and right and the reason
why i've been able to lean into these bets and profit from something like a s bet is because
i was born in the trenches and lived trading these meme coins and altcoins. And I've talked about them several times on these spaces.
And the truth is, if you have ever traded crypto on chain, et cetera,
this is going to be it feels like a copy paste scenario,
maybe even better because so you have like these high beta out on the risk
curve ways to get exposure to the crypto theme.
So, for example, you like Solana.
So you might go on chain to Solana and buy some meme coin or altcoin and get way higher gains than you would in Solana.
That's fair. So right now you could get Solana or you can get the Solana treasury companies, which are going to basically it feels like a Solana meme coin.
So I like that angle. Obviously, Ethereum versus SBET, same sort of thing. So I look at these
treasury companies, these utility companies, these crypto, these Bitcoin miners, I look at them as
like a high beta out on the risk curve version of, it's basically, it feels like an on-chain version
of how to get a higher beta way to track
those cryptocurrencies that are underlying the stock.
You know, and here's the thing,
some are gonna work really well,
and some are gonna work, they're not gonna work,
and you're gonna lose money.
And so, you know, that's why I say, you know,
you have to be very careful when you're trading these things
because like, you know, things can jump 100% in a day
and be down 40% the next day.
So you can only play with fun money.
This isn't something that, you know, I'd recommend for people at all, especially if you like
don't know what you're doing and you've never been a part of these.
I mean, like people probably hear these things like, oh, I'm going to slam my whole portfolio
into short dated calls.
It's like, that is how you lose your entire account.
Don't ever do that.
You got to have risk management and you got to know like what you got to play these games,
not by how much money you can make, but how much money you can lose.
And so considering the downside is, you know, I think a much, much more conservative way to play these things.
And you can always use, you know, moving averages as a sense of momentum and lines in the sand.
So, you know, if UPXI ends up losing its its 21 ema tomorrow i'm probably going to cut some of
it um if it helped but as long as it holds it 200 days if it loses both i'll probably be out of the
trade entirely um so i'm never going to let a trade get too it's not going to go too against
me so even though i sized up that position specifically by consolidating a few other ones
i'm not going to let myself get my ass handed to me i'm going to you know then again i say that but
you know these things can open up minus 20 30 tomorrow and i did get my ass handed to me. I'm going to, you know, then again, I say that, but you know, these things can open up minus 20, 30% tomorrow. And I did get my ass handed to me. So this is
very, you have to be very cognizant. You don't get these kinds of big gains without taking on
the risk. Don't let anyone tell you there's risk for yield doesn't exist. So all I was trying to
say is that it's pretty interesting, the environment we're in right now, because
in right now because these treasury companies are popping up left and right which gives you a ton of
these treasury companies are popping up left and right, which gives you a ton of opportunity.
opportunity but what i'm concerned about is that so many are popping up left and right that it starts
diluting the opportunity and that's why i for example like a few of the other ones that weren't
working so well today i decided to cut them because the momentum looked like it was losing
so there's going to be winners and losers um and i'd rather try to you know swing at the winners
uh the ones that are setting up nicely, the ones
that are trading at more reasonable valuations, kind of use those as like guardrails.
But if they keep popping up left and right, this trade is going to die very quickly and
you're going to lose momentum across the board.
So they work until they don't work.
But I think they're still working for now.
The one good thing about these treasury companies, for example,
or any sort of crypto derivative stock,
is that ultimately it takes a lot more time to get a company to be publicly traded
and build out an Ethereum treasury or whatever
and raise funds and all that stuff.
These are real companies, whether they're bullshit and like they're overvalued and they're just,
you know, chasing some heat and momentum.
That's all fine.
But they're real companies.
And versus, you know, meme coins where I saw a stat that like 1 million new coins are made a day.
And I think the reason why like in 2024, March was when things were heating up
last year. And that basically fizzled out and died because every single day there was a new
meme coin. And I know me and Gov Wolf have talked about this quite a bit. You know, today it's
MogCoin, tomorrow it's Pepe, the next day it's dog with whatever the hell it is, you know,
Pepe, the next day it's a dog with whatever the hell it is, you know,
uh, yeah, cat with hat. I don't, I don't remember what the hell they had,
but it was like a thousand of them. And every single day there was a new one.
There was Joe Bowden meme. There's a Trump meme coin.
So when you get too many of these things,
there ends up being too many buckets and a finite amount of money chasing an
infinite number of buckets.
And so there's not enough money for any of them to go up.
So the odds of profiting is very low. So that's kind of how I think about trading meme coins. And again, this is supposed to be fun gambling money.
You have to play with based on what you're willing to lose.
And it's definitely not financial advice.
This is telling you this is like literally gambling and high risk, but there's money
to be made if you are somebody who has traded crypto in the past and you know what I'm talking
about.
This is probably a comment for more people who are more comfortable trading on chain rather
than trad five people in the past and you know what I'm talking about. This is probably a comment from more people who are more comfortable trading on chain rather than tradfied people.
Because I think you know the risks of highly volatile assets related to crypto, etc.
So yeah, that's just a comment I wanted to make is, you know, some of these are pretty interesting and can pay out pretty nicely.
But you have to understand the downside risks.
Like, I'll be honest, like I took BTCM calls last week. interesting and can pay out pretty nicely, but you have to understand the downside risks.
I'll be honest. I took BTCM calls last week. That thing was up 150%. The stock was down 36% the next day, up 30% today, and my calls were down like 48%. So these things are crazy and you got to
size them appropriately is all I'm trying to say.
Because you can't get too confident one way or another.
Anyways, I'll move on from the crypto treasury stuff and all the crazy stuff.
Just real quick before you move on.
It's almost like the stocks trade analog to how the crypto names run.
So generally the crypto names will run like... Wolfie's talking if you can't hear him brian
maybe i don't know if you can hear either i don't know i don't know so when you disconnect sometimes
and you're like i'm me to your mic when you glitch out sorry about that go ahead wolf
that's all good no so they're basically the stocks are basically trading analogous to how
the crypto names uh run generally you'll have like
you know bitcoin move or the boom quote unquote boomer coins move and then all the alternative
derivatives under it move after so like it moves further on on the meme chain and on the risk chain
right so like it starts with the boomer crypto names and then it'll go to like all these different
memes and that's kind of how this this this thing's kind of played out a little bit uh it started with like the robin hood the
mstrs the coinbase they kind of went sideways for a while and now they're chasing all these
different derivatives of that which is i think is i just wanted to throw that in there i think
it's pretty interesting because it's kind of like one to one kind of tells you where you are no
exactly and it's really funny to me that you know people are all in my comments telling me lol save this move oh they're all gonna like
you're gonna get bagged buying this like dude ethereum just broke out above its 200 day bitcoin
just broke out out of its eight seven eight month consolidation range i mean to think that this move
immediately goes back is like pretty, especially considering the moving averages have caught up.
The breakout was beautiful.
I mean, it was like a textbook kind of breakout, and it was very well telegraphed.
And people were on the timeline saying, oh, it's the most obvious move, and everyone's eyes are on it, so it's not going to work out. It's like, just like they said that when the Zweg breath thrust that we got on April 22nd,
near the lows of the market, just enough time for that to trigger basically like 10 days or so after
the bottom, everyone was mocking it. Like, oh, everyone's a breath expert now. Everyone, you know,
oh, if this signal works every time, then it must not work every time because it's too obvious. And
it's like, yeah, well, the market's now like now like 15 20 percent higher than that so sometimes you just got to keep it simple and stop you know like just pay
attention to the price action and the price action has been that you know a lot of these things are
going higher um can it can i change my mind yes if things change of course i will but i'm just
paying attention to the price action i think stock talk says that all the time is like pay attention
to what's going on and to to me, you know, you get
constant. I think BMNR was up a lot today, which is the one that Tom Lee's associated with. And
they had a note, I just retweeted it. Oh, I guess it was, oh, wow, it faded all day. So that's good
to know, right? I mean, this thing was literally at four bucks, and it's still up 10x as of, you
know, two weeks ago. So I wouldn't really say a fade today is that big a deal.
I'm not touching that one because it's up so much.
But the point I'm saying is like, I'm pretty sure,
yeah, I just retweeted that they bought $500 million worth of Ethereum.
Like that's a lot of Ethereum.
And that's just one of these treasury companies.
So imagine this, these treasury companies. So imagine this,
these treasury companies, whether they're BS, whether they're legit, whether their valuations are way overvalued, they are still providing the bid for the underlying asset. So at the very
minimum, I'm not saying you have to be bullish. A lot of these treasury companies that are trading
at like 10 times their net asset value, definitely not saying that, nor am I going along anything like that,
because that's ridiculous.
But you got to assume that there's a lot of buying demand right now,
and they know that they're getting rewarded for it.
So these whales are just buying, you know, Ethereum in large size.
And so you got to assume that there's some decent like support here.
And yeah, so it's hard for me to get bearish when so many people are just like now buying
And, you know, if you think about like the relative performance of Bitcoin to Ethereum
and Ethereum, by the way, is much more useful than Bitcoin.
Bitcoin doesn't do much.
That's why they kind of call it, you know, the digital gold and Ethereum has a real network.
So you can do a lot of things
like for example everyone's like chasing i've talked about this but like everyone's chasing
circle because of stable coins well guess what usdc is on the ethereum network so if you're
bullish stable coins and then there's the government involved in the genius act and
you know trump wants to make uh you know crypto or amer, the crypto center. And, you know, by the way, uh, the reason I think is because stable coins,
and I wrote about this maybe a few days ago before the Ethereum breakout,
I had a nice little, um, Ethereum note.
Um, you know, these, uh, stable coins are actually a top 15 holder for us treasuries.
And what is the biggest topic right now
for the macro is there isn't demand for our bonds.
So I think this is a strategic move to build in demand for our bonds.
So, yeah, it's really tough for me to fade this crypto move.
You know, obviously, like I said, I exited SBET.
You know, when you get like a big, big profit in a small time,
doesn't mean it's not going higher
but you know i i got my move and i'm happy with it and you know i can move on and see what's what
else is happening and but i you know i still have a solid amount of um crypto exposure like you got
to take profit because these are trades for me personally these are trades uh maybe i'll regret
not holding these long long long term i have like eth calls, ETH calls for December, which I'm willing to exercise and keep my Ethereum exposure longer term.
But some of these trades are getting hot.
And I would be a fool not to take some of these profits.
Like people hope they get, you know, 10% returns on a yearly basis.
Let's not forget what we're doing here.
It's just to beat the market.
And when you're getting 100% returns in like a week, you got to ring the register at least
a little bit.
So that's what I'm doing.
I'm not saying chase these things up 100, 200, 800%.
I'm not saying that.
I'm saying pick your spots and take profits along the way.
Yeah, because the trade is crazy.
It could go on longer than you expect.
But like, for example,
today my riot calls for September were up 100%.
I trimmed those as soon as I saw 100%.
I took off like 20 of my calls, got 40 left.
And the stock faded throughout the rest of the day.
I was very happy I took some profits this morning.
So, you know, my entire style has been
take profits from what's working and you can always
add to things that are pulling back to support.
So I just keep recycling capital.
And that's how I've been thinking about this market is like orderly pullbacks.
You buy that something that runs a lot in a short amount of time.
You you you trim that.
And another thought, because this is on the conversation with Tom earlier, talking about investors versus trading.
Look, we've had three bear markets in the last five years.
I don't care what anyone says.
Those are minus 20% corrections in the index that we've had that.
2020, COVID.
2022, we had a real bear market.
And 2025, we had the crash, and that was a 20% drawdown.
These are still bear markets, very much so.
Whether we had a ways out of them or whatever, but we, we got the 20% correction.
These are, this is very rare.
So I think everyone's like, assuming we go right back to those lows right after we, you know, basically announced the largest tax cut in history with that tax bill, the BBB.
We want lower rates coming up.
We want lower rates coming up. There's just a lot of things lining up.
There's just a lot of things lining up.
What I think is happening, though, is you need to change your mind as an investor in modern day.
And am I saying, is this time different?
You know what?
I absolutely am.
I know people will say, oh, that's so dangerous.
And I'm not saying you should buy things that, you know, again, up 800%.
That's not what I'm saying.
I'm not saying that that's the strategy now but what I'm trying to say is like things need to be thought of a
little bit differently now we have you know the the fiscal side of things supporting the markets
now we have you know rate you know fed they're in modern day the fed there's a fed put I don't care
what they say there's a fed put you know don't care what they say, there's a Fed put. You know, that
helps on the downside. And then you have the best of breed businesses, basically like Microsoft at
45% operating margins, still growing with diversified revenues across the globe. Like,
it's not L'Oreal from like 20 years ago. So try, like people love to post that chart. It's like,
the S&P is at its historical average highs of the whatever, whatever.
Like, look, is the market expensive? Sure it is. But using historical average PEs when we when
within that data set is probably L'Oreal at like, I don't know, freaking, you know, 10% net profit
margin, best case scenario, comparing it to a business like, you know, Microsoft or that can
scale much higher, much
better revenue growth and durability.
You know, obviously we should trade at a premium to that.
And then now you're adding to the point that, you know, the government is backing the more
so backing than they used to with the BBB, you know, every birth gets a thousand dollars
into the market.
Like the dynamics are changing.
So should we be paying a higher price for the market?
I think the answer is yes. So what I can say though is as much as you want to be a long-term investor, short-term
trader, whatever, whatever, I think what's very important to understand is we, again, I'll repeat,
we had three bear markets in five years, which is like basically unprecedented. What does that tell
me? That tells me that we're having booms and busts cycles are faster which means that if you're a um a swing trader
with way less ego um and you're not like married to your stocks i think you have an opportunity
uh in the modern day market which is to say look um you know things are getting frothy or my stock
is losing momentum i'm going to cut it um you know just to avoid those big downsides, because the big downsides, these
bear markets are playing out far more frequently than they were in the past.
So I'm not saying you're going to, you know, nail every top and, you know, nail every bottom.
But I think that being a little bit more higher frequency than the set it and forget it could
end up yielding you much more than incremental performance
boosts than it did in the past versus, you know, the buy and hold works forever, et cetera.
And, you know, that said, like, as much as I talked up, you know, the mag seven stocks
being great.
Yeah, I'm not really the one to buy these things.
Sure, you could buy them and, you know, close your eyes and rest easy.
But, you know, the upside from a $4 trillion market cap,
will these go to $6, $10 trillion?
Of course they will.
I have no doubt in my mind.
I don't know when, but how long will it take them to get there?
And that's just never been interesting to me.
The one thing that you've noticed in this market
that I was mentioning earlier is there is a broadening.
There is rotation.
IWM, XBI outperforming SPI recently, XBI outperforming on a one month basis.
I haven't checked IWM, but I bet that as well.
We're just now breaking out of the 200 day on IWM.
XBI still hasn't.
Those stocks are extremely cheap valuations.
There are still opportunities in this market.
So when I talk to people and they say, oh, you know, the market's frothy, etc.
It's like, well, are you are you just looking at the same 50 stocks?
Because if you are, then I agree with you.
But I don't think that this is a market of 50 stocks.
It's a market of thousands of stocks.
So my suggestion is to do more work and find the opportunities.
And when I feel that the opportunities are no longer there, you'll know because I'll
say, you know, I'm going in much heavier cash at this point.
But for right now, I still feel the setups are really nice and i still see a lot of good technical
setups and the fundamental valuations are nowhere near stretched um that that's you know more so in
the investments rather than the um you know the trading side of things which is much much higher
frequency for me i'm in and i'm out tell me how do you end up yeah I accidentally dropped down when you were
talking and I was thinking to myself he's gonna think I did it as a sign of
protest but it actually I accidentally leaned on my phone and so I just wanted
to add one little tidbit to what you just said and I don't think there is
such a thing an expensive market market in general, from a different perspective.
One of my all-time
favorites ever is
Bill Lynch, right?
He has this very good lecture where he explains
there is no such thing
a bad time to buy a great company.
So we come from different
you make money in the stock market I make money in the stock market, I make
money in the stock market, we use different strategies, that's fine.
But on my kind of neck of the woods, it is never too late to buy a great company.
Because if you go through history, expensive great companies who have recently doubled
have doubled and doubled and doubled again multiple times right after.
So I agree with you.
To me, the argument,
oh, the market is expensive, it's horseshit.
The market is never expensive
for fundamentally insanely good businesses.
So you can talk to me about,
oh, it's like 28 P.U. and the S.P. 500.
Sure, yeah, it's not ideal for bargains.
But if you're looking at generational game changers, it's not ideal for bargains but if you're looking at
generational game changers it's not gonna matter it's like I'm out of that
they doubled or tripled it's at the end of the day you know as long as investing
great businesses business this thing is oh it's expensive you can bargain for
trash I mean yeah get a bargain for a piece of shit.
But you know what I mean?
Here's what I'll argue, though, is that I'm very GARP-y, which for those don't know, the acronym means growth at a reasonable price.
I am still very cost conscious valuation wise.
I need to make sure that I'm paying a reasonable multiple if I'm going to size up a position.
So we definitely have very different views. That said, you know, I don't pay attention to the top,
you know, 50 stocks that everyone on this platform pays attention to. If I did, I would be like,
this is the most frothy market because the valuations are pretty absurd. And to your point,
you know, high quality deserves it. But I do think that they are very expensive. That said,
I would only pay attention to the market, like index level, those kinds of things, backdrop,
how are the leaders doing, just to understand market health.
As long as they're able to chug along
and they're not really showing signs of breaking down,
which could take the rest of the market down, right?
Because just because the stock is cheap,
if the market goes into a downtrend, you're right,
the lower quality names, cheap will get cheaper. But as long as the leaders stay up, the market goes into a downtrend, you're right. The lower quality names, cheap will get cheaper.
But as long as the leaders stay up, the market stays up,
to me, I'm not really considering or concerned
with what those market leaders are doing or the index level
because I don't trade those things.
I'm not interested.
And I'm just looking to see if there are opportunities in this market.
And I have way too many ideas for the amount of capital, to be honest.
I think it's just the difference.
We're trying to get to the same destination, but there's more than one road to do it.
As a trader, you have to be minded to pricing, right?
I mean, it's the whole point.
So there's no other way to do it, what you do.
you have to understand that you have to have like a margin it's like when you know if you
You have to understand that you have to have a margin.
you're um if if you are you know selling a car buying and selling a car you gotta leave some
margin to profit right so if you buy a great car at an expensive price it's not gonna be profiting
if you try to sell flip it you know what i mean so i completely understand what you're saying
So I completely understand what you're saying.
At the end of the day, look, I've made pretty good returns
over the past five years being like 40% in Palantir
and another 40% just in the index,
which is the most boring portfolio ever.
I mean, you've done well.
I think people just need to understand,
most importantly, stock is like where I think
where most people get screwed is not knowing what they are.
I think that's the biggest problem.
Because people listen to you, they listen to me,
and we both make great arguments.
And then one day they're a trader, the other day they're an investor,
and they get it confused.
They don't know how to wear different hats.
I think the one skill you guys need to master if you want to make money is you know either what you are completely or know under
which hat a metaphorical hat you're operating and dude that's a that's a perfect point because
anytime i end up borrowing conviction or going to a trade that's not really meant for me as a person
or me as a trader i end up always getting shaken out of that as soon as we lose any so as
soon as we get volatility which is day-to-day volatility that I should just be able to hold on
to if I had the proper conviction and it was the right trade for me I would probably not get shaken
out but oftentimes I take on positions I probably shouldn't touch and those are the ones that end up
losing for me mostly yeah because think about it this way remember like I don't know if you like
basketball like I'm an OG 90s basketball fan.
If you're Shaq, you don't want to be shooting threes.
You want to be in the paint.
And if you're Kobe, you want to be shooting mid-range and three-pointers.
You don't want to be trying to dunk on centers.
You have to play your game where your advantages are.
Well said.
I got to head off here in a couple of minutes, but thanks for the combo.
Yeah, good talk.
All right, Wolfie, you saw your hand
patiently waiting there. Let's throw it over your direction.
Yeah.
I was going to talk about something.
I'll do both one.
No, sorry. I had to talk about it.
Most recent.
What?
Can you hear me?
I can hear you, Wolfie.
You're good.
Sorry.
I cut out.
Okay.
Okay.
I was like, what's going on?
I tend to disagree.
I think valuations do matter.
They don't matter until they do.
But if you just zoom out in your time horizons forever, yeah, obviously, if you buy a good company, then their earnings should compound, their revenue should compound, their growth should compound, and then the valuation should slow down over time.
Or the valuation that it has, the EPS, whatever, PE, whatever it has. If it's a growing company, then that PE should shrink
if you're in the right thing.
That's totally factual, but they do matter.
I mean, just take a look at Tesla the last few years, right?
It gets ahead of itself.
It goes sideways.
It rips again once there's a new revenue driver,
once there's a new growth driver.
It gets ahead of itself.
Same kind of thing.
You go back, look at Netflix, same thing. Go go back look at apple when it was growing same thing so they you know you we
could say they don't matter over over over a timeline of infinity sure right um especially
if you're buying companies over timeline infinity that shows too but they they do matter and they
also matter from uh from an indexing standpoint right so
there's certain there's certain variables that that go into some of these passive flows and you
know once certain things get past a certain point just use the russell for example right once a
certain company grows to a certain point uh in the russell they kick it out right so similar similar kind of concept um but if you're just talking
about buying generational companies for decade holds or 5 10 15 year holds yeah sure no argument
here um then going back in reverse uh you know when logical is talking about SBET um so so
I want to I want to talk about it real quick just because it's like a real real
world example of like some of the things that i talk about i don't know about other people but i
talk about i always say things like i look for like second order or third order so he was talking
about um about ethereum and having things on chain and all that stuff but you know when i talked about espet with evan on this space it was uh thursday um
it was thursday july it was uh thursday july 2nd or i don't remember it was that thursday
and the reason it was brought up was because of that tom lee um ethereum treasury stock that
or etf whatever whatever it is that have gone ballistic and
the point was you know if you miss some of these things you don't want to chase them when they've
gone from 10 to 120. shout out to evan who caught it at like 12 or whatever you want to try to think
second order third order because if those if those things work if that theme tends to work then it's
not going to be the only one it's not going to be one and done. You're going to get other ones.
So I talked about that one in particular.
And so the same kind of concept here applies just from a larger theme.
So Logical was talking about, you know, Ethereum has like real shit.
They have contracts.
They have the Treasuries.
They have the stablecoin thing.
They've got, you know, all these things that are coming into the works.
So if that is something that ends up working, then the second way to think about it is to think about, like, who's going to be the beneficiary of these transactions?
Who's going to be the beneficiary of some of these things?
And a real application to this is just Robinhood, right? right so robin hood's robin hood's interest in entrance into this tokenization of some of these privatized companies that don't really have an actual uh tag to the the overall ownership of
the company people you can dunk on that all you want but i've mentioned this a couple times i'll
mention it again that to me is not nothing more than just a pilot test to iron out all the kinks
for when they actually start to do this stuff.
And this stuff is going to come.
You can look at Palmer Luckey's Bank with Peter Thiel that's coming up.
It's going to be totally crypto-based or primarily crypto-based.
You can look at all these other articles.
You can look at the tokenization thing.
That is coming.
So when you see these types of moves happen moves happen and you hear about oh
well they're they're buying they're buying the coins you can look at it as oh well they're buying
the coins that's a one-to-one of oh i need to buy ethereum so maybe i can make money that's one way
to look at it or you can think of it as okay what what's the foundational piece that would
you know create that next leg, right?
And that tokenization thing, you know, once it starts getting kicked off and actually
going and people start tokenizing things like titles and car loans and things like that,
that's when that thing actually starts to go.
And that's when you're going to start to see some of this appreciation on these, you
know, second beneficiaries and third
beneficiaries and things like that.
So I wanted, I wanted to say that because we can talk about a stock that worked or didn't
work, but to me, the, the better, the better use of, you know, forward moving time is to
just think about like, okay, that worked because X happened.
So if Y happens, what would benefit so that's i just wanted
to put that in there uh kind of like a real time because we talked about it on this space um when
it was trading it was evan stock and i were talking about that and msgs and it was totally
totally just a derivative of the tom lee the tom lee mania and so when you get the second order
third order mania of, you know,
the Ethereum stuff, if it does happen, material is into tokenization, think Robinhood,
think Coinbase, and think any of the other names that are going to benefit off the back of it.
It is really interesting, especially from the investor perspective with all the stuff going
on with crypto and stable coins and everything, just to make that happen i do see we have uh
mr stock talk himself stopping by this afternoon what's up what's cracking guys yeah i'm uh i was
busy today i'm running errands i got a wedding to go to out of country on wednesday so i'm just
running errands for that get some dry cleaning done and stuff.
But yeah, hell of a day. I mean, even though I wasn't at the desk, hell of a day for the
portfolio. Portfolio hitting you all-time highs today. We are plus 107.91% versus plus 6.8%
for the S&P 500. So the outperformance continues. Obviously, the big story today for my portfolio was Nebius with that stock rebounding after being weak and consolidating for about a week, week and a half.
It jumped 17% today on the Goldman Sachs report that came out this morning.
They had a nice price target and applying on about 45% upside on it.
and applying on about 45% upside on it.
I mean, I agree with Goldman's commentary.
I mean, I agree with Goldman's commentary.
You know, the thing around MBIS
and why I've been talking about it so much this year,
and I don't know, I covered on the spaces in the 20s,
the 25s, talked about it a lot.
You know, there was tons of opportunity there in my view.
We're sitting on it right now with a 23.92 cost basis,
which is beautiful.
Stock traded over 50 today.
Again, 52-week highs around 55.95.
So I'm sure you'll expect a little bit of resistance
when it climbs back up there.
But Nebius is really differentiated
from the rest of the data center compute group.
You know, obviously a lot of these names have been popular
over the last few weeks.
Iron, Cypher, et cetera.
We traded Iron. we made like 500
on the options in two weeks on that monster move we traded cypher got in at 428 that stock's trading
over six today so over 45 on those shares i get the compute trade you know the compute trade makes
sense because of what happened with cores obviously for cores themselves it didn't work out very well because they secured an all-stock deal and that stock um has been punished really
since the deal came out but the sympathies have been holding up very well you know your ciphers
and your irons have been holding up very very well uh versus cores because obviously they're
not locked into a deal and so you know they don't have to worry about what core we've stock price
is going to be but i think the point of that acquisition, the purpose of that acquisition in creating
interest around these Bitcoin mining companies for the repurposing of their Bitcoin mining
assets to high performance compute, that point, I think, still stands, regardless of what's
happened to cores since that acquisition. And so you're going to continue, in my view, to see a scramble for high performance compute
for the smaller mid cap, I should say, companies in that space that are sitting on tons of
compute, frankly.
And we're obviously seeing a little bit of restraint right now, especially for inference
inference purposes. Grok4 Heavy was released last week. They're charging $300 a month for it,
purposes.
You know, Grok4 Heavy was released last week.
but they're limiting queries for even the $300 a month users to 20 queries per month.
That's because of lack of inference compute. So there is sort of this
second bottleneck, if you will, in compute that we're stumbling into right now, which is inference.
And as these models get better and better, more people are going to want to use them. And so it's
a flywheel effect for compute. So I remain really, I mean, not only invested, I have like five
positions related to that theme, but I remain very confident on the data center theme over the next five years. You're going into the year prior to DeepSeek. That was the biggest
exposure in my portfolio. I had like nine data center names this year going into DeepSeek.
And then in the DeepSeek sell off, I got shaken out of a lot of them. I got shaken out of most
of them. The only one that I still own from that era of stocks is Nebius.
And I chose that to be my horse because I think they're differentiated. And to the point I was
making earlier, when you look at these other high performance compute stocks like Iron,
Cypher, the Bitcoin miners, you have to take into account the fact that Nebius doesn't just
have data centers. And Nebius is not just a data center
company and that's sort of a goldman was talking about in the note today it's what i was talking
about in uh about nebius and back in may when we first opened our positions but the real value in
nebius is threefold outside of the data centers obviously yes you get data center exposure yes
you get a high quality team that knows how to operate and deploy data centers. That's important. Execution and a team that can
execute on those things is important. But you also get a lot more than you get with any of the other
high performance compute companies. You get ClickHouse, which MBIS has a 28% stake in. Now,
ClickHouse is a very important company in data observability.
OpenAI is using them.
Tesla is using them.
SpaceX is using them.
Like, they're customers of ClickHouse.
Okay.
ClickHouse, in my view, is worth $10 billion today.
I think the last round was at $6 billion.
I think they're worth at least $10 billion now.
If you look at the rest of the peer valuations of the private market,
I think that's easily
a $20 billion company if this AI hype cycle continues.
These private market valuations have expanded very rapidly.
And ClickHouse is actually doing irreplaceable service for companies that are trying to observe
terabytes and terabytes, pentabytes of data at a time.
They need to be able to compartmentalize that data,
sort through that data, access that data effectively,
organize it effectively.
That's what ClickHouse does.
And so that's a huge value add for NBIS shareholders
to own 28% of that company.
Not to mention, NBIS also has an in-house AI data business in Toloka, which Jeffrey Bezos' ventures team, Bezos Ventures, they recently were the top investor in their last round. because it's not just a data inference and access and observability business like ClickHouse,
but it allows you to engage and customize data sets,
which if you pair the offerings of ClickHouse and Taloka,
you become quite literally the master of massive, massive pentabytes of data.
AI now, at the stage we're at now is about improving the data sets in the very early stages of LMS
and AI we were looking at huge amounts of information allowing AI to basically funnel
that information and hope that the models would be generally intelligent to a degree and that
worked pretty well and you look at GPT-3 when that was released,
that was a pretty generally intelligent model. You know, the first Grok that was released was
a pretty generally intelligent model. The first Claude, the first Gemini, et cetera. These were
all at inception intended to be generally intelligent models and were relatively generally
intelligent models. And that was the goal in their improvement. But now, as we get further
and further into the cycle of development, people want much more specific data, much more curated
data being fed to LLMs for training purposes, because not only is it more efficient, but it
prevents LLMs from saying and doing some stupid things, which for those that have been around the
internet for the last couple of weeks, we've seen plenty of examples of that with Grok and with ChatGPT's latest update.
So we're in this sort of late, not late stage, we're in this sort of second stage of data analysis
and AI training where these types of businesses like ClickHouse and Taloka are going to become even
more important. And then the last thing, obviously, Nebius also has AVRide, which is one of the
largest autonomous robotics companies in the world in terms of actual vehicles in operation.
They're all around Dallas where I am. I was actually ordering Uber Eats two days ago and
they're like, hey, would you like an AV ride autonomous drone to deliver your food? You won't have to tip.
And I was like, oh, that's cool. But yeah, there's a wide deployment of these going on. It's not a very profitable business. I don't expect it to be. But obviously, if you're bullish on robotics,
that's another bonus. So yeah, my view Nebius is in a league of their own in the data center
place. I think bit dips are viable. There's a reason it's a core position for me. I do not have many core positions. Centris Energy, Robinhood, Nebius, those are really my big three. There are
a couple of others, obviously, that I've talked about that I'm high conviction in. My full
portfolio is always shared in our community. But yeah, Nebius, fantastic day for it. And a massive
jump off of a pullback over the last few weeks. We popped right back above the 9 and a massive jump off of, um, uh, a pullback, uh, over the last few weeks,
we popped right back above the nine and 21 EMAs today, which is exactly what you want to see
on a stock. That's going to continue its uptrend. Um, I don't have a position in energy fuels,
but I have been eyeing this one like a Hawk and just missed my entry, but I didn't post a chart
about it on Twitter last week that it was poking its head above the 200 week.
And it made that move today.
Yeah, it posted this, what, three days ago.
UUU peaking its head above the 200 week and 50 month moving averages simultaneously. That was last Friday and the stock jumped another 6% today.
That thing just looks explosive.
Probably going much, much higher.
I wouldn't be surprised to see energy fuels at 10 by the end of the year, which would be a big move from here. Obviously, stock closed seven today.
I'm going to try to find an entry on that thing. I don't know if it'll give it to me,
but some people did catch it in our server because I posted those charts last week,
and I know some people on Twitter caught it as well, but that was a monster day for that.
Centris Energy, what can I say? This is my top position. I've been talking about it, I don't know,
for months and months and months on these spaces every day.
Centris Energy, Centris Energy.
But that stock just goes up every day.
216 today.
Relentless, relentless bid.
Like no sellers, not even on market corrections.
Barely going down.
It'll go down like half a percent or 1%.
There's a reason for that, I think.
I still, as I've said many times on these
spaces, I believe that centrist energy is the most valuable mid cap asset on planet earth,
period. End of story. Revenue taken out of the equation. Like I, I, frankly, I don't want to say
I don't care about the revenue, but like revenue taken out of the equation. They're the only
nuclear enricher that is privately owned or not owned, I should say, in the world.
The only ones with the expertise in nuclear enrichment.
They're literally the only company in the United States, period, end of story, that can fill that part of the supply chain.
And that to me is worth more than $3 billion.
It's that simple.
So I haven't sold a share of Centrist still.
I know I've been saying that over and over again, but I'm up 125% on shares in a month and a half in any other scenario literally any other scenario
I'd be a seller here but I'm not a seller here I frankly won't be a seller
of centrist or nebius on any on any down move like I don't care if they correct
25% I would just buy more of both of them so those are like non-negotiable
core positions for me.
I don't care what happens to the price.
Those stocks are going to go much, much higher over the next 10 years, like materially higher.
So I don't care.
So yeah, those positions I'm not touching.
They just have been doing really well, which is nice to see, obviously.
Better to see your stocks go up than down sometimes.
I am hoping for a pullback on Centris. In August, they report earnings
August 5th. This is a stock that is a history of pretty brutal pullbacks on earnings. I'm hoping
we get one. You've seen minus 20, minus 25% nice on this thing on earnings in the past. I am like
praying with both hands together that we get that. For some new traders in the audience,
you might be like, why would you want your biggest position to go down by 20 percent well that's what you do when you're high conviction
you want to buy more and you want to own more so that's kind of the boat i'm in with those names
and i really hope that they do pull back on earnings but we will see no guarantees of course
um but they are reporting on August 5th.
Warby Parker is another name I talk about a lot out here.
Actually had a really nice day.
Intra day was up like 4.5%.
Faded a little bit into the close, but still closed about 3.5%.
I just really like the Warby story.
You know, I continue to really like it.
Spent, what, the last...
Since late May. Basically, late May popped over the last, since late May.
Basically, late May popped over the 200-day moving average.
Since then, it's been consolidating in this pretty tight price range from 20 to 23, just bouncing around.
And now we're pushing back up to the top of that range after today's candle.
Breaka over 2350 can be explosive for this name.
I still think it's being underappreciated by the market.
I don't think people recognize the uh ai glasses opportunity with google obviously the overhead
risk is that they execute poorly honored and google just drops them which that's obviously a risk um
but you know from a relative valuation standpoint to s or s or luksatica who's the owner of ray-ban
uh from a relative valuation standpoint i think the stock is still too cheap so i remain long on warby uh doing nicely for us today sphere you know that
stock's in our short interest basket as well remains highly shorted um kevin mack who covers
it on twitter has talked a little bit about how some of those shorts might be from convertible
note holders who are already wrong long um so maybe you can't expect as much covering.
But, I mean, the stock's performed well for us anyway.
It just keeps ticking up.
SPHR, we got long around 40.
It's trading 44 today now.
Sorry, we got long sub 40.
It's trading 44 today now.
So it's been climbing out of this base.
And you look at the stock now, traded under the 200-day moving average from mid-May to basically mid-June popped over late June.
And then since then, it's really been cruising to the upside.
We took out the highs of this local range today at 44.32.
High of the local range was 44.04.
So that's good to see.
Stock probably pushes to 50 pretty quickly in my eyes.
And then we'll see what happens from there because that has been multi-year resistance
up there at 50 so you probably would expect some sellers to show up if this thing does manage to
climb back up there but yeah just terrific another terrific day in the market i mean i i don't know
just i didn't do anything today i just watched my positions go up and you know on a day worth
spy up whatever 0.2 percent or whatever it was up the close, you know, 18 out of 23 positions green in the
portfolio, pretty fucking good stock picking if you ask me. So yeah, I'm happy with the names
we're in. Again, I really want to get into the whole, it's been a big run, like this attitude
that a lot of people are in right now. I want to get into that attitude, but everything still looks great
and everything is working great.
So until it doesn't, I mean, you know,
I'm not going to make myself panic for no reason
when the price action looks this good every day.
I try to let the price action tell me when I panic.
I've said this before, but I think if you're somebody
who's constantly worried in the markets about whether you should be scared or whether a correction is
coming or whether this, this or that is happening, price tells you pretty loudly and pretty clearly
when it is concerned. It told you back in February with DeepSeek and it will tell you again
when markets start breaking down. So for now, the music is still playing,
although a lot of people feel that there's a lot of reasons for it to stop, especially with all these tariff conversations resurfacing. I think the market, frankly, still doesn't believe Trump.
I think that's really what we're dealing with here, because if we really are headed
for 30 to 40 percent tariffs on everyone on August 1st, that is going to destroy the global economy.
So the markets clearly don't believe him.
The markets believed him, we wouldn't be having this sort of performance in the market right
now.
Markets are calling bluff.
And so they think there's going to be a softer tariff picture by August 1st.
I have no other way to justify the market action.
You know, that's my thinking currently, which is that the market's calling bluff and thinks that
the tariffs won't be what they are. Now, come August 1st, if we have a repeat of Liberation
Day, keep in mind, going into Liberation Day on April 2nd, we knew there were going to be tariffs.
Market knew there were going to be tariffs. The market just didn't know what the numbers were going to be.
And the assumption was, hey, there'll be like 10 or 15 percent and we'll shrug it off.
And then when he pulled out that board of 30, 40 percent tariffs, that's when the tariff
sell off started.
Right.
And over the course of the next few weeks, you know, stocks unwound 40, 50 percent.
Right.
What triggered that?
Well, what triggered that was when he lifted the board up
and showed the market, hey, it's not 10 or 15%,
it's 30 or 40%, and that scared the market, okay?
There is a chance of that scenario repeating on August 1st
where we go into it-
Well, Stock Talk, what feels like what might end up happening here
is we know that there are a couple countries that matter and a lot that were just like a 40% tariff on Laos going into effect.
I don't know what that's going to do.
Yeah, nothing.
Give or take.
But so what I feel like we could be going towards is, hey, these five at the top, Japan, South Korea, and then really the EU, Canada, Mexico, which got letters, China hasn't, whatever.
Those might still be delayed but i
wonder if you know some of those other ones actually go into effect and you know how the
market ends up taking that yeah if laos and like cambodia i don't see why you would delay those
again it doesn't seem like those are going to get delayed yeah i agree but that doesn't matter
either right like like you said those i hate when i phrase it like this i hate when i say those countries don't matter because i don't mean like those countries don't matter either, right? Like you said, I hate when I phrase it like this. I hate when I say those countries don't matter, because I don't mean like those countries don't matter.
I'm sure there's fantastic people there.
I respect everyone's culture.
I'm talking about this in an economic context.
Outside of the EU and China, nobody else really matters.
Canada and Mexico matter because they're geographically proximal allies, or allies, I should say, whatever you want to phrase them as. They're geographically proximal allies or allies, I should say, whatever you want to phrase them as.
They're geographically proximal allies who are pretty chill with us.
They don't attack us. They just they're right there.
We have logistical advantages to trading with them.
Canada, there's obviously oil market implications with our trade with Canada.
With Mexico, they are very dependent on U.S. dollars. Like, I don't understand.
Mexico basically have to give up whatever we ask. Like, from Mexico's standpoint,
they do not have negotiating leverage. So, you know, whatever Trump wants from Mexico, they better give it to him because the Mexican economy will get destroyed if the United States puts 30% tariffs on Mexico.
It will get completely rattled top to bottom.
Every single solitary part of the Mexican economy is dependent on U.S. dollars coming into the country.
So I don't know how Mexico is going to handle that, but they're going to have to handle it.
If I was in Mexico's position, I would just say, what do you want?
There's just no... It's going to be very hard for them to negotiate.
But when it comes to the EU and China, they do have negotiating power.
The EU and China are, you know, that's a lot of GDP.
If you add up all of the countries in Europe, that's a significant portion of global GDP.
You know, what do you think of the defense deal that was signed today?
I thought it was very smart.
I think that seems like it's going to go about trying to solve this part of a little bit.
It seems like they are going to work with someone to ask directly of, hey, does this
mean you're willing to work with the EU on lower tariffs?
Trump didn't say yes.
He said we're willing to work with them.
I don't think they got the answer they necessarily want, but it doesn't seem like we're saying
it 30%.
I think, again, this is if there is a deal. But yes, I agree with you, Evan.
If there is a deal, I think it will be around that U.S. weapons contribution from NATO.
Because it's really perfect.
I mean, again, I'll give credit where credit is due.
I think that was a very smart move by Trump.
To set up NATO for a 5% defense commitment.
And then say, oh yeah, and about our trade deficit.
Now that you've committed to this 5% spending,
you know what would be awfully convenient
if you just spent it on American weapons
and, you know, helped solve the deficit.
And, oh, if you do do that,
if you do make $100 billion annual commitment
to buying American weapons,
then we'll drop the tariff rate to 10% from 30% or whatever, you know?
I imagine the negotiation will go something along those lines if we do or when we do end up getting a deal with the EU.
But I think there's a higher propensity for the EU deal to get done because both sides know it's important and both sides know it would rattle the global economy.
And frankly speaking, both sides are allies.
On the China side, yeah, there might be a little bit more tit for tat. You know, the rare metals thing,
they still have that in their wheelhouse where they can use that as leverage against the United
States, the same way that we can use leverage against China and so many other industries as
well. So there is that sort of schism between the United States and China that could continue to be
battled out back and forth. But I expected the EU deal to happen because both sides need it to happen
and the global economy needs it to happen. So just out of sake of necessity, I expect it to happen.
Obviously, there's a chance that it doesn't. And that would be really bad for the markets.
I think a lack of a deal with either the EU or China would be really bad for the markets. I think every other country we can get over.
But I hope that we don't
not get a deal.
I hope we do get a deal
between the EU and China.
And if we don't, that will be bad
and markets will go down, in my view.
A lot.
What's up, Wolfie?
So, you like the...
Excuse me, I didn't mean to do that.
You like the special situation type of things,
like HII, for example.
This is up your alley.
So, the MP deal,
where the Pentagon basically bought a stake in MP,
I think is kind of a signal that a lot of these companies
that have to do with whether it be industrials
or whether it be materials, steel, copper, et cetera,
a lot of these companies that are viewed a certain way
or priced a certain way are undervalued
because of the non-numerical value that they...
I'm blanking on the word for you.
Rarity premium is what I like to call it, yeah.
Sure, call it a rarity premium.
But I think what we're seeing with
a lot of um a lot more insular behavior across the world even in the united states um and with some
of this tariff stuff you know people people look at it and they go okay well tariffs are going to
go up so that means the price of whatever thing is going to go up as well. So I have to own this, right?
But I think that there's a premium
that is being discounted by the market
on a lot of these metal names,
a lot of these material names,
a lot of these pipelines,
a lot of these rails,
because I think they have an inherent value
that isn't priced by a PDA ratio.
Yeah, like the potential to get multi-billion dollar government support.
Well, that's one way.
Or another way to look at it.
That's absolutely true.
That's one way to look at it. you know a potential that certain pe firms or certain uh private uh private investment companies
or certain uh takeout candidates candidates come from this because people are going to try to front
run what you just said right so you've i think you've got two levers one where they become like
a national defense thing that has to happen. Like we have to protect this company.
We have to invest in it.
And then two, you know,
people are going to start sniffing this out, I think,
and try to get in front of it.
So I think if you just take a look at some of these copper names,
some of these metal names, take a look at some of these pipelines,
take a look at some of these, you know, rails, things like that.
I think there's a lot of value there that's about to start taking off i think that mp deal that happened i think it was last
week i think that mp deal that happened is kind of a nod kind of a signal that this is not just
like a one-off i mean you already see it you already see it internationally with some of these
defense uh names international defense names like uh some of these aerospace defense names international some of these um weapons manufacturer manufacturers
internationally uh the incremental dollar to go to you know protecting yourself is going up and i
think that's not something that's just going to be for protection I think it's going to be also for like agriculture also for um uh you know metals materials mining etc because I think this this
de-globalization it doesn't have to be completely de-globalized if you just break certain things or
just pull certain things apart then there is an an inherent premium to whatever onshore solution
you have domestically. And the other one, and this is the one that I think is up your alley,
you just kind of dig around it, is the way that Intel is valued today is valued based off of the
AI theme that they missed. But Intel is the only fab that we have domestically.
So I think there's a real premium behind the potential.
Well, it's not, it's not, they don't, it's not domestic.
Yeah.
Taiwan's so many fabs.
No, as far as, as far as I know,
the only one that's like domestically in this country.
Can I ask a question actually also? What about Google foundries? What do they do? Why have I heard them in this country. Can I ask a question actually also?
What about Global Foundries?
What do they do?
Why have I heard them in this similar area?
I'm not an expert on Global Foundries,
but Global Foundries is a domestic company.
I don't think they do core Foundry of chips,
but I don't want to comment
because I've not done work on Global Foundries
to give you an explanation of their business.
I don't think I've ever even traded that stock maybe once or twice.
Your point is still taken that if we're investing heavily
in making semiconductors in the U.S., Intel is one of the leaders,
if not the one who's –
It's not just that they make it.
It's not that they make it.
The value is if you're one of these international companies or one of these companies that wants to do business here and you want to manufacture it here, there's a limited number of options.
And so I think this is going to create asymmetric risk return across the board.
create asymmetric risk
return across the board.
I'm not pointing
it out like I'm some sort of expert and I know
all the ins and outs. I'm pointing it out to him because this is up
his alley.
Kick the tires around.
What I will say is this. First of all,
Intel's chart looks very nice.
I will say that. The chart looks bullish.
Probably going higher. All things being equal.
Market staying steady. Probably
going higher. I'll open the comments with that
I don't I'm not bearish on Intel or anything
But I do think that taiwan semi remains our best chance at cutting-edge
Domestic manufacturing or domestic fabrication of chips quickly if we want to do it in any sort of time efficient manner and have
You know two to four nanometer chips made in volume in the United States, it has to be through TSM.
Intel is not in a position to do it.
It would take Intel a decade and maybe a hundred billion dollars to be competitive in that
space.
And I mean, maybe that'll come from the U.S.
government.
Maybe there'll be another chip deal and in Trump style instead, where he makes it different from the Biden chips deal.
But Taiwan remains in a league of their own.
TSM remains in a league of their own when it comes to fabrication.
I don't know if we can just forcibly close that gap with Intel.
That remains my concern.
Like, I think Intel is a generation behind in technology and that's a
problem yeah i'm not i'm not talking about closing the gap you're absolutely i'm not arguing there
i'm just saying like if we wanted manufacturing chips we would go to tsm is what i'm trying to
say we like we would lean on to you well i just i just think that the factories that they have and
and that the foundry that they have sets up an opportunity doesn't have to be the high-end stuff
right if our goal is we have to onshore a lot of stuff i mean just take a look at some like i know they're completely
different businesses completely stuff but just take a look at some of these charts like stx and
wdc which nobody talks about boring boring old archaic businesses right um but up and to the
right up like vertically and to the right uh some of the best performers in the chip space off the
lows i i don't disagree.
I'm not, this is not like a point about like bacon ketchup even. It's just, if you want to do
something here, they have a segment that storage value the way that it's valued because we're
valuing that segment is less than I agree 100 but the fact that it's domestic and
there aren't very many entrants domestically it creates an opportunity for that premium in my
opinion and if you can get it in the teens you can get it you know 20 or whatever i think i think it
really sets up like you said the chart i'm talking talking about that perspective and then the chart
does look great i'm saying and i'm saying this as someone who bought it based off the chart before I even saw the MP thing.
But I do think that there is going to be, and even if it's not Intel, maybe I'm wrong and it's not Intel, right?
And it's something else.
I do think that there is a value right now to shift the logic to thinking that way right what other companies and what other
industries could be the next you know recipient of government invest 10 to acquire 10 the the
the dod is going to give them this contract to do like i think that's the next thing we have
and it's not just domestically too so if other people are like more international based and understanding those types of things
that's coming as well in my opinion there's there's a there's a flight to protect yourself
happening internationally and in part because some people feel ripped off and in part because
some people don't want to feel ripped off um And then in part, just some of the chaos behind the tariff stuff and some of that other stuff.
Yeah,
I do agree that there's going to be a seek for these rarity premium companies.
I mean,
a lot of my portfolio is concentrated in these types of names.
I mean,
you,
you,
which I talked about earlier,
which I don't own currently,
that I think is one candidate for,
again,
not a deal similar to MP, but a deal regarding the u.s supply chain of
these things you use obviously not all is that the that the only uh you were talking about the
only no that's centrist um that's that's that's the one i was trying to think of that's an example
as well very lined up for a deal like this in In fact, I wouldn't be surprised for Centris to get a deal bigger than their market cap.
You know, they're a 3.5 billion market cap.
I wouldn't be surprised to see that.
So a lot of my portfolio is concentrated in these rarity premium names where I think they're mid-cap assets that have no peers.
And that, I think, is a great place to be, especially if they're U.S.-based mid-cap assets with no peers like Centris Energy, you know, in my view, like Joby Aviation.
And like many of these stocks that are in cutting-edge next-gen themes that have potential for government support, that have executive orders behind their back already, and we'll probably see billions and billions of dollars in investment opportunities over the next few years.
So, yeah, I agree with that.
What's up? You got a hard stop? You got a hard stop right here. I hate to do it next few years. So, yeah, I agree with that. What's up?
You got a hard stop?
You got a hard stop right here.
I hate to do it.
All right.
No, you're good.
We'll see you.
Stock picks for the week.
Why were you here?
I thought you were going to be on board.
I'm going on a trip on Wednesday.
I'm not going to be here for a lot of the week.
I might not even be here tomorrow, but we'll see.
I'll be in and out sporadically.
Anything fun?
Anything you want to talk about on Spaces?
No, I'm just going for a wedding.
But, yeah, I'll be there for like seven days i'll still be feeling and stuff i'll still be you enjoying the gym i saw the sky posted in the location a photo saying his high school
friends wouldn't believe it i'm getting i'm getting big baby i'm out there i'm in there
appreciate you all every day all right take it easy. Make sure to follow the speakers, follow Stock Talk, follow the host.
Catch you all tomorrow.
Hopefully you come chill with us a little again, Stock Talk.
See ya. Thank you.
