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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: May 5, 2025 Duration: 2:01:27Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic market landscape, discussions highlighted the resilience of tech stocks like Palantir and HIMSS, showcasing their strong earnings and growth potential. The conversation also delved into the implications of tariffs on various sectors, emphasizing the cautious optimism among investors as they navigate upcoming Fed decisions and market trends.
Full Transcription
Thank you. what is up everyone happy monday welcome back to stocks on spaces we uh interesting day here today a little
bit of a gap down from friday we had that 200 day of course on qqq and nasdaq and uh gap down on some
headlines and uh just slow chug grind all the way right back up to basically where we were um kind
of the upper end of fr's range here. So it's
been an interesting trading day. We'll see what everyone thinks about this move. Of course,
we do have some earnings coming up this afternoon as well. I know several people will be watching
HIMSS, Palantir, and some other names, I'm sure, are on some radar. So excited to hear everyone's
thoughts around any of those as well and any of the news that's going on out there, of course, quick look around the market,
just a quick market update, and then we'll jump into it with our friend, Mr. Scott Red Dog. QQQ
down just, we'll call it a quarter percent. SPY exactly the same. IWM exactly the same, all within
that small range right there. The Dow is actually green.
VIX is a little bit higher than where it closed on Friday, believe it or not.
That just surprised me.
Mixed bag across most of tech.
Of course, Apple with the Warren Buffett news over the weekend.
Apple sold off.
I think that's kind of the pin action there.
Amazon, Broadcom, Netflix. Netflix had a separate headline, of course, about tariff on
movies and things produced overseas. So that's an interesting headline there to deal with for
Netflix. Tesla down 2% as well. But we have a green Microsoft meta, Google, and interesting day, I guess, across the board.
So we'll see, kind of a dull day, I guess, on the news front and in the market action side,
but I kind of welcome that a little bit.
But either way, let's dive into it a little bit here.
Scott, great to have you, as always, on these Mondays.
Excited for you to kick us off a little bit today.
Well, it's great to be here.
And what I want to do is because I
have to apologize, I missed last Monday, I just had a lot going on. But I wanted to give a little
shout out to those who were on with us on the 21st. Because if you remember, you know, that was
that was a pretty big day in the market. That was when the I think the spies and the Q's,
the spies were making a higher low in that like W formation and the Qs.
And I think some of the guests were talking about buying into that.
And it was hard to see that that was the spot that was going to hold at that point.
A lot of people were talking about retests, lower prices, et cetera.
And then really like technicians on April 22nd was the day that they kind of trapped
the sellers on the 21st that
Monday and then we took out Monday's high and from there it's been a you know a really methodical
grind higher but that was a hard day to see but um so kudos to you know I feel like people are
talking about the XBI they were talking about the IWM and they were all you know positioning a
little bit kind of like I guess their blood in street account, which is what I also put two tiers into.
But then from there, it's been a really big move.
I know we were talking about also potentially being able to see the 200-day EMA or even the SMA, which was 562, which we got through last week.
And I thought today was very impressive just in many different ways you know after a huge move off the
lows probably what 17 or so we had definitely a few reasons to go down there was nothing real
concrete on the tariff deal side it feels like every weekend everyone gets a little worried to
be short because something could happen and nothing happened then you had like you said
Buffett had his Berkshire Hathaway weekend where it didn't look like he was in a rush to buy anything, but he also sold things pretty early.
And then here, you know, he came in today.
So today I'm actually having an open house where I was talking about, you know, what could keep things controlled and what would get things sloppier.
So there's like two different ways to look at it.
And the spies wound up holding 562, which was Friday's low by 30 cents. The Q's held 484
to the, you know, pretty much by 10 cents. So if you just simplified and said, hey,
can we hold Friday's lows and have some constructive action and dips being bought again?
You know, we got to stay with some things. And that's exactly kind of what happened.
Netflix was one of the things that I think people were looking at this morning because of Trump's
100% tariff on Europe, you know, and doing production in Europe. And then, you know,
this morning was below 1100 and it's now at 1140. So they even came in and bought that. So
ultimately, it feels like the fix is kind of in where while the shorts are on the run,
they're not letting buyers come in real fast.
And although you don't want to get over your skis and get all giddy and excited,
but this grind trend could sometimes go further than you think.
And if you're just rolling up shorts, that could be a tough game overall.
I would think the next level that traders will be watching is like this 576,
which is the peak from March 26th.
You have the low from January 13th, and then you have the peak around March 26th, and that would be a spot.
I guess we'll also wait to see where we are come Fed Day on Wednesday because it always gets a little erratic.
But all in all, leaders gave some clues that they can go up, like, right, Palantir, you know, Palantir go back to the highs.
Dash has been awesome.
You know, you had Meta and Microsoft came out a little better than fear.
And then, you know, even Apple and Amazon being lower on Friday into today didn't, you know, didn't just have things fall apart.
So at this point, there's a bid and it's very specific and
they're not giving money away on trees, but you have to definitely have one to three plans a day.
And today's was, hey, can they hold 562 in the spies and 484 in the names that were better
after earnings like a Microsoft, a Meta, even a Google, can those go green early? And for those
who bought these things to go red to green versus those levels,
there's still cash flow to be made.
So there's not a lot of predatory action right here.
It's more methodical than predatory, and that's how traders make money.
As of from what I'm seeing.
So as we've kind of just continued to float higher here,
do you think any of this has to do with just so many walkbacks as well from the administration around the tar China was talking about, you know, controlling the fentanyl exports.
And that is what the market, you know, I guess got a little stronger on Friday with.
Before then, it was a different, just a headline that they were actually opening the lines of talking, which is what was being, which the China ministry said
they weren't doing. So those two headlines late last week, you know, continued the bid underneath
the market besides, you know, Microsoft and Meta that came out better than feared. So then
who wants to be short going into the weekend just in case there's something a little bit more
concrete or just in case India had something really definitive, which we're still waiting on.
They're still waiting on a little bit more stuff out of Mexico and Canada.
So you have this bid in the market where it's like sometimes it's just mechanics
and mechanically people aren't in a rush to buy, but they kind of sold out.
And until there's actually a real definitive deal where they gapped the market
six, seven, eight, nine points in the spies and they sell it down and now they say, oh, they sold the news, then I think sellers get more confident.
But for right now, there's a good rotation here that feels like there's a lot to like where dips have been viable.
There's been a little bit of power.
I think today's going to be important.
What does Palantir do?
If it has a bad report and can't go higher, then we're overbought.
If it's in line and goes down 8%, will it be buyable?
Kind of like what happened with Spotify last week.
If you remember, Spotify came out.
It was not fantastic, but it was a strong stock.
The dip was buyable and you didn't have to take it into numbers.
So trying to figure out what the market will let happen.
You know, and each week it's like a different type of scenario.
Like right now is, you know, can upper levels hold?
We kind of did that.
And now it'll be like, hey, you know, can, you know, Palantir and DoorDash, which have been fantastic, can they go up on good numbers?
Or are there no buyers
higher?
And, you know, can other names join?
Which, you know, Tesla has been a pain, but, you know, sometime maybe it gets above 292,
which is where the 200-day EMA is.
Microsoft and Meta are better.
And maybe even Amazon, after a few more days of Jeff selling, when the news comes out,
maybe that acts better.
So there's a lot of little different things to do.
It's not just, you know, sometimes you're in that correlation of one where everything
is up or everything is down.
We're not in that phase of the market where you just trade the spies in the queues.
And now it's really, you know, you have to be in the right names that are more forgiving
than others, long or short.
And I think it's a good spot to reset ahead of the Fed. Like if you made really
good money the last two weeks, definitely a spot to reduce. If you think that at some point,
we might have a one and a half percent of upside versus four to five percent of downside in the
next two, three weeks, then you go out a little bit and buy some puts for two weeks from now.
So if we go up, 1%, doesn't really matter. And then if all of a sudden we get a little bit
of a leg sweep and we go lower, then, you know, you're hedged pretty, pretty well.
Yeah, I don't think I can disagree with that at all. Scott, appreciate that take. Let's go ahead
and work our way around the panel a little bit, see what everyone else is thinking around the
market in general and what we've done going into this Monday about 45-48 minutes
until the close here. Wolfie, let's go over your direction next and see what's on your mind.
Good question. I don't have too much right now. I think we've got like two days to go. You have
Palantir earnings, HIMSS earnings. I used to be a Palantir shareholder I sold after the last
earnings report for personal reasons don't like their CEO but that's just me
owned him since four bucks so I don't really look at it anymore but I think
those are like your momentum drivers if I were to pick momentum drivers in the market I think those are like the ones drivers. If I were to pick momentum drivers in the market,
I think those are like the ones that's going to be like,
in my opinion,
the risk appetite for retail.
So I'm kind of curious to see if they could just like put anything out there
that,
you know,
squeezes even further for the technical folks.
If Palantir were to fail here,
let's say they had a really bad report or, you know, valuations were too rich for people to push it any higher.
There's your pretty standard double top right here at that 125 call it level.
Outside of that, I mean, just looking for Wednesday's Fed stuff and just trying to make it through the week.
I think Scott covered most of it.
I think it was two or three Mondays ago. stuff and just trying to make it through the week i think scott covered most of it um i think
it was two or three mondays ago i don't remember the exact one but whenever facebook was trading
at that 480 we're all on here saying like it's in the middle of nowhere i said there's some levels
you could take shots at and i think like a couple days after, the market started calling the bluff for, you know, the plan that was on the table, basically saying it's not going to happen.
And I think the farther that we go, the more material the tariff stuff has to be.
is at some point, I just believe that Trump and Powell are going to beef because some of the
short-term effects of the trade policy stuff are going to create inflationary shocks, in my opinion.
In the long term, if it were to hold and tariff stuff holds, you could argue that it's
disinflationary, but in the short term, it is inflationary. And on a year to year basis,
it will be inflationary. And so I think at some point that battle will rev up a little bit.
I think that's a real thing that again, I just like to talk about when we're at a VIX 23 instead
of 50 and S&P flat, basically. So I think that's in the future.
So I kind of want to set myself up for prepping for that.
So again, pretty much the same kind of convo
that I've had the last few weeks.
I look for idiosyncratic plays.
I'm looking for things that may or may not move
with the market or may or may not have
great impacts on the market, whether it be special situations, whether it be, you know,
buyout candidates, whether it be just smaller names that have momentum that perform. So I
mentioned at the top that I sold Palantir, you know, if I was looking to trade something in the
last few weeks, that would have been one of the primary things that I would Palantir, you know, if I was looking to trade something in the last few weeks, that
would have been one of the primary things that I would have looked for because it was outperforming
when the market was going down, it was going sideways. It's like one of the tells. So now I
think there's a couple of other names that have, you know, that kind of potential, like Duolingo
is one. Netflix has been one for the last few weeks. We talked about that one being tariff-proof, and then now it's down on the back of movies getting tariffed.
So if it doesn't find its footing in the next couple of days,
I think that story might kind of have a couple cracks in the armor,
and I just want to see how that plays out.
Outside of just that, I think for me, again,
the playbook's the same for me.
It hasn't really changed.
I want to have international on one side value on one side.
And then on the other side, that momentum rotationary thing.
Um, and then just, you know, idiosyncratic moves.
Um, that's, that's kind of, that's kind of like playbook.
And then along the way, we're going to have these, in my opinion, we're going to have these shocks along the way that you know we go it could be upside shocks
that kind of get overbought to extremes and then downside shocks uh overbought to extreme or over
sold to extremes and then the upside shocks that we get um i kind of want to see the market prove
itself before i just kind of lever and so into those moves I want to lighten up so and I think
we're kind of getting close to it here one of these inflections where it's going to have to
prove itself uh and so anything that I felt uncomfortable in the last couple of months that
I still own and I didn't lighten up on I'm looking to like trim or lighten up on anything that I felt
like I didn't own enough of in the last couple of months on the
back of the tariff stuff that performed well. I'm looking to see if it's at levels or if the story
is held and if I can kind of, you know, put stuff there. And then, you know, outside of that, just,
I think it's a tape bomb to tape bomb headline thing. So in my opinion, you kind of have to be comfortable with what you own
and comfortable with what you want to see.
I'm personally kind of shocked at some of the names that have performed very well.
Like I'm not shocked that they are performing well.
I'm just shocked how aggressive some of these moves have been.
So, you know, again, like the CrowdStrike moves,
moving as aggressively as it's moved in the last three weeks.
It's kind of caught me off guard.
The Palantir one moving basically a double off the lows.
That's really phenomenal and aggressive.
But, and then just take a look at some of these mega caps.
I think Microsoft, for example, is like 25% two weeks, right?
Obviously they had earnings.
Obviously it was like a little bit, the fear was a little bit greater than what it actually went out with, and it did well.
But just the size of these moves, and the reason I'm bringing that up is because anytime you feel like you might have had FOMO, in my opinion, this year, anytime you feel like you might have had FOMO, I think these are good reminders to see how fast and how aggressive the moves to the downside were, but then just how aggressive
the moves, you know, the mean reversion moves back up or so it kind of keeps you balanced.
So at this point in the game for me, like I said, I'm not trying to do anything cute.
I said this like last week, I'm saying again, not trying to do anything too cute.
You know, I've posted a couple of charts Thursday, Friday, and today
that I think, you know, you can go dig a little bit.
I think that they're pretty decent setups.
And then, you know, from there, just trying to be nimble
and take what's in front of me.
Yeah, from Wolfie, that sounds exactly right.
Like, I think for, like like when you try and judgmentum and
when things get to levels that need to prove themselves like palantir it's gonna be interesting
it's either gonna be a double top of 125 and everyone will say oh how did we not see that
with a big gap down if the report's not enough or it'll be gapped up tomorrow and the shorts
who are still rolling it up get squeezed and then then the question would be, do they sell that?
And then they'll say, okay, the best things are priced in.
So there's a lot of ways to use this as an example of what happens tomorrow.
But then you have to also kind of be comfortable what you're doing into it.
We had a pretty good play here from like 91 up until here.
So I'm not taking it on an earnings play.
I just feel like the premiums are just too high,
and I don't have FOMO missing an extra 10, 15 points in Palantir
because they gave us way too many great setups
between the last few weeks up to here.
So just a question of, again, what do you feel like you're going to miss?
And if you feel like you're going to miss something,
you're really not going to miss anything.
So you better just be kind of careful where things are at,
if they can be sustainable.
Like the DoorDash also, that's been something we've mentioned here for the last multiple, multiple months.
And this too gave you a few great swing trades into this corrective phase as it showed relative strength.
So here at 2.05, heading into print tomorrow morning, I'm just not taking a call spread or I don't FOMO that it's going to get back to 215, which is the prior high, or even take out that 230.
So I think into this spot, you have to really love what you're in, thinking you're going to get bigger upside from here versus the risk of things stalling around here.
So just, I guess, keep your mind. So I told, like, you know, I think I've only interacted with you, Scott,
on here a couple of times.
But I think there's a lot, like, you know, you're obviously a more seasoned,
the more seasoned dog here.
But, like, there's a lot of similarities with how you trade
and, like, just a lot of other people's momentum trading in here
and, like, myself included. And one of the things that, you know, as you've been doing this long
than I have, so you've seen firsthand is these like, you know, setups into earnings in a healthy
market, right? Well, you'll get situations in a healthy market where you have like earnings growth,
earnings growing,
you'll get these setups where they'll either chase them into the report. And then if the report
seeds, it'll blow off and continue, or they'll chase them or they won't chase them in the report.
And then they'll be like an exaggerated move to the upside. In this environment, I feel it's like
take a coin flip on some of these moves. And then if you just take a look at like some of the implied volatility on some of these names on the back of the moves that we just had, it really makes it so it's like difficult.
So I'm just going to pick on HIMSS, for example.
Like I said, I've owned this one.
I've owned this one basically the entire move, right?
I've owned it single digits.
I still own it.
I don't own nearly as much as I used to.
But if I was looking at it, like let's say I didn't own it.
I wanted to play it. I look at own nearly as much as I used to. But if I was looking at it, like, let's say I didn't own it. I wanted to play it.
I look at the implied volatility on the stock on the options right now.
It's sitting at 125%.
You know, one day event vol sitting at 29%.
Like that they have to really crush it for you to, for you to like actually make any money, even if you play the option.
So you're sitting there and you're like, okay, well then how's it looking for, you know, put the call. It's not, it's like 50, 50. So it's not, there's not really any edge on the back of some of these moves. And then for some of these like aggressive players, and then the, then you just take a look at like the downside, the downside risk, right? So HIMSS in particular, I mentioned on this space, like the last Thursday, or two
Thursdays ago in April, it's trading on like 25 bucks. It's at 42 going into earnings. So like,
what's your downside from here? By the way, Wolfie, was that you that did that right before
that news? Because I remember we were on a space and somebody's like, look at that. I'm like,
oh, the chart looks good. And then boom, the next day it was up huge. And people were giving you props.
I wasn't sure who said it.
So I got to give you props.
I don't know if people were giving me props.
But yeah, I mentioned it at 25.
It was back to the prior all-time high and uptrend, all that stuff.
I owned it.
So it's not like I added to it or anything like that.
I own the stock.
I'm good with it.
But it's at 42.
So your downside risk now, just on a conservative basis it's a 35 bucks
which was the prior all-time high like you really want to risk 20 downside into the print right of
course and now of course now that i said that tomorrow it's going to open at like seven i'm
like an idiot but but you know that's that's kind of like the math you have to do do i want to risk
20 on the equity uh so that i can possibly make you know a move to do. Do I want to risk 20% on the equity so that I can possibly make,
you know,
a move to 50?
I don't know.
It's for me,
those kinds of coin flips aren't,
aren't,
aren't fun.
And then on,
on top of it,
just take a look at all the,
all the indices themselves,
pressing into the 200 day,
kind of having inside days,
et cetera.
And if you want to take like a look at a,
an extreme example of how bad it could be,
if you do actually miss when markets are giving you a pass this quarter, take a look at Square, right?
X, Y, Z now.
Just take a look at how that one played out.
Obviously, they got their own problems, stuff like that, but really destroyed in the back of earnings.
So I think in these types of tapes, you're going to get opportunities.
Let the volatility kind of come in a little bit.
Implied volatility on some of these names come in a little bit.
You can always trade it afterwards.
There's a three-day rule, all that stuff.
Yeah, yeah.
We played SoFi.
We were dead right, and you couldn't make a dime playing options,
even though it was up 7% the next day.
I think we took whatever it was at that point.
I think what was it with SoFi?
We took the $14 calls, and you still, with the implied volatility, there was no
money to be made.
I had a Google call spread, the perfect call spread at the time going into Google, thinking
that, you know, it could be better than feared.
160 by 167 and a half.
You had three minutes to adjust it on that Friday.
Otherwise, it was a zero.
So yeah, there are definitely ways to trade things
after earnings using some rules versus having to take the implied and doing the coin flip.
So that's why I do think, like you said, I don't think Palantir or Dash is worth it right here.
I'd rather wait till after and see what's going on. The best setup was Microsoft because no one
expected anything. Microsoft's been out of play for a year and a half. So usually those are the best setups when sentiment's so against it.
And all of a sudden, if they do something that no one expects,
you can make big money.
Like Microsoft was a big money option play for some.
You know, but anyway, into this spot after an eight, nine-day rally
with looking for more upside is just, again, it's not the risk-reward to me.
It's just keep your money, especially if you've been doing well.
Well, two last points on this. other one particularly tesla right you didn't have to play the earnings nope on the back of earnings right they crushed premium on iv on the
calls and puts after earnings because because of the setup and then you got a 20 move basically
on the back of earnings so you got that gift right so that's one
two um the the other thing that happens when you have the first two names meta and microsoft in
this case the major bellwethers report good numbers is everybody starts to go oh crap
let me get in front of the next one right and so that's like you that's what we saw and so when you
had amazon and apple come out with lackluster reports,
now that imbalance has to kind of flatten the other way.
So I'm with you.
You mentioned a couple of names.
Dash is another one I took.
I sold it last week.
So you're going to have the opportunities.
Don't feel like you have FOMO.
This is not the market for FOMO, in my opinion.
That's basically the line.
I concur.
Let's see. We had a hand go up there from Tom.
So let's go over to Tom and then we'll work our way around the panel.
Yeah. So I'm in agreement with the other speakers.
Scott, I've been listening to your morning show for probably a year now. So great to finally be on the same panel.
Yeah, I love it. But yeah, so we're kind of at the 200 day, a lot of names are sort of pressing into major resistance. Meta failed to
break above 600 or close above 600 on Friday. And it's struggling with that level today.
I'm looking for stocks like Meta to make another leg higher
before I have confidence that we're going to base above the 200-day and have some continuation to
the upside. I think it probably makes sense that we sold off. I was short going into Friday. I
bought some puts just anticipating deleveraging into the FOMC.
And I think that'll probably continue into the FOMC just because, I mean, I think the rate decision is relatively certain that they're going to leave rates unchanged. but if Powell comes out very hawkish, could see a negative reaction.
I think it's a really pivotal point in the indices.
A lot of bear market rallies end right at the 200-day and never look back.
and never look back. So I'm going to be waiting till after FOMC to see if the market starts
picking back up again and starts approaching that 200 day to just take new longs. I think
Palantir is pretty important and Bitcoin as well. I've been watching Bitcoin sort of pulled back
today under 95K, which I think is a good indicator of risk
appetite.
There's a lot of apprehension right now.
We've run the indices and a lot of these stocks up right to the point where people are getting
a little bit uncomfortable buying.
And I think a lot of market participants are kind of thinking, what else would need to go right from here to justify this rally?
Because we haven't really got a trade deal. We've made some policy progress.
There's been exemptions from China and the U.S., which is causing a lot of people to be very optimistic.
people to be very optimistic in addition to Microsoft and Amazon not pulling their CapEx
guidance and having Microsoft had a blowout quarter, Meta had a great quarter.
So I think there's a lot of optimism right now. But unless we get some support in terms of the policy and actual trade deals being made, we might unwind going into FOMC and even pass to FOMC.
So that's sort of in terms of positioning.
I'm short right now and I'm on the queues.
But it's really tactical just up until FOMC, and then I'll be looking to
start new longs. I really like CoreWeave. That's one of my favorite stocks. I think if we do
keep rallying, that could go up kind of like ARM. It reminds me a lot of ARM. It has a lot of potential. The revenue growth is really strong. So a lot if something changes in the market, it could pull back.
They have earnings next Friday, or Thursday, sorry.
And so that's what I'm looking for,
to take a new big, long position in.
But yeah, right now I'm being a little cautious
because we are sort of pushing up against resistance.
Yeah, so thanks.
I think CoreWeave's good.
I think that's a good name to throw out there.
A new issue, not a lot of new issues are out there.
It's tied into the semis.
Not a lot of, you know, footsteps in that one.
It had a quick move, so there was appetite when it first came out,
and then it's now been basing.
That's something for investors to probably start looking into,
you know, because it definitely had to be strong to come out.
It's got a lot of people behind it and, you know,
just got to know your timeframe on your entries and exits there.
So that's definitely a good one to put on the go-to list.
Yeah, I'm pretty in love with it.
I think that it could have a lot of potential, especially if we're going to continue to restrict advanced AI chips.
Other countries are going to have to look for alternatives to actually hosting the compute themselves.
And so a lot of them will turn to cloud-based providers for training their AI models.
And CoreWeave is in a great position there.
Yeah, some great, excuse me, some great thoughts there.
Logical, let's go over your direction next
and see what thoughts you have around this market.
Yeah, I mean, the market is really strong.
It's red to green kind of market. And yeah yeah we're fading a little bit after uh right now but i mean it's still holding up and obviously you know
everyone can see the charts we're just below the 200 day on spy we touched it on um the queue so
you know on friday i definitely took a lot of shorts like SQQQ. I had some swipe puts, et cetera.
But honestly, just watching this market open down and just climb up all day,
red to green is typically a sign of a pretty strong market.
So while, you know, I understand from a tactical perspective
and I know that there's, you know, clearly some anxiety around the FOMC,
really some anxiety around the FOMC, the press conference, what he can say.
the press conference, what he can say.
So, you know, I am very cautious, but, you know, I've taken off my hedges at this point.
I'm very, very, very, very long in this market.
But I'm also the kind of person that if I felt if I, you know, I'm watching the action
very closely.
So it won't take me very long to go from 120 percent long to like, you know, 50 percent
that long in like an hour if I need to.
So, you know, I might, you know, get hit or be off, caught off guard for the initial move.
But if, you know, I feel like it's going to be the, um, it's going to be a prolonged move to
the downside, then, you know, I'll make sure to catch the meat of that move and protect myself.
So for the time being, you know, I'm still very long specific names individual names um and yeah i still think there's a ton
of great valuations uh in the market outside of the typical uh what people are looking at you know
um if you're looking at palantir at 100 times sales you know and i'm gonna say that 30 minutes
before the report i still think that stock's probably going to go to freaking 160. It's unstoppable. But
that's not really what I'm talking about in terms of value in this market. I think if you
want to do well in individual stocks, I mean, right now, the momentum names are clearly one
of the first to really bounce back hard. But I think that after the re-rating back towards these prices and some of
these names, the forward returns get a little bit tougher. And so, you know, for me, I try to avoid
a lot of the popular names and I stick to off the beaten path kind of situations, which I think have
not really moved quite. I mean, they've moved off the bottoms, but they're nowhere near their highs.
And so that's kind of where I'm focused at this point and i have about 13 or 14 names this week reporting earnings so uh it's a very big week for me and my
portfolio and uh we'll we'll see what happens um you know i i think you know magnite might be an
interesting uh earnings this week given that you know netflix kind of a leader in this market and
they have that partnership with Netflix.
So I'm watching that.
I'm watching Amplitude, which got some decent call flow today.
Yeah, I mean, Pubmatic along the lines with Magnite.
A lot of these ad names have actually been reporting stronger numbers than anticipated,
whereas the stocks have been beaten down 50 60 percent or more
so um yeah that's where i'm focused um i have a lot of names reporting this week so uh first one starts today with banker colombia so let's see what happens there i think latin america still
set up pretty nicely but yeah i mean like when i'm adding exposure in this market i'm still very wary
of tariff impacted businesses you know those are regardless of the severity of the tariffs being walked
back and talked down, even a 10%, 20% tariff is going to be a big problem for a lot of
businesses that are exposed to them, especially if we get into a slowing consumer environment right
now. So far, the consumer has been resilient, but there's going to be second order effects
of the tariffs, which is, you know, if they're going to have to raise prices to keep their
margins intact, they get less sales, they're going to have to, you know, turn around and
keep those margins intact with lower costs. costs could mean layoffs that could mean
unemployment picks up that means that you have a slower economy weaker consumer so again like
i have a lot of exposure to biotech which are minimally impacted not even really impacted by
tariffs i have latin america exposure um yeah i still do have some stocks that are obviously
tied to the u. US economy and consumer, like
I just named a couple of ad tech names, etc.
But the valuations that we're starting at right now are much cheaper.
And obviously, cheaper can get even cheaper.
So relative valuation only matters so much.
But if this market can hold up, I think there's tremendous upside from those.
But those are probably some of the places that I'd like to cut exposure first if I was to start to get more defensive.
Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of names that are looking pretty solid and that can work in a slowing economy like the biotechs and Dollar Tree, for example.
Catalyst-driven names. Economy like the biotech and Dollar Tree for example catalyst driven names
so like Magna and Pubmatic have a huge catalyst with the
Google antitrust trial which I've been talking about a lot, but that's gonna take a longer time to play out
We'll kind of have to see what happens. By the way logical. I gotta give you a little shout-out
You've had a good call with the with the XBI, you know about two and a half weeks ago when everybody thought it was really left for dead.
It was a good move back up to resistance around 84-ish.
So I'm sure those names that you gave individually must have done really well considering the nice move in the actual ETF itself.
Yeah, thanks. I appreciate that.
A lot of these names, I mean, there's some bios and the clinical bios are the ones that were hit the hardest for sure.
The commercial bios have just generally been more resilient since they're, you know, growing businesses with profit margins, etc.
But like, you know, I think the the fear around the FDA not approving as many drugs with the ousting of the FDA commissioner was a big issue.
And then the new commissioner comes out and says, no, no, no, we're going to approve more
drugs, not less.
And so some of these names are up to 300% off the lows from a couple of weeks ago.
And obviously clinical bios, I don't really size them more than 2%, 3% of the portfolio,
but you get a 200% mover off the lows.
That's pretty meaningful.
So yeah, I mean, these are things that are not going to be that impacted by
tariffs in my view.
So it's kind of where you want to be.
I'm not sure exactly what my overall exposure is.
I think maybe around 60% of my portfolio is biotech.
So yeah, I mean, again, I'm not saying that like when I say I'm bullish, I am still bullish,
but I'm selectively bullish.
I'm not just bullish like,
I'm not necessarily bullish big tech.
I'm not necessarily bullish popular growth means.
I never really have been though.
So, you know, feel free to ignore me or not,
but I just have a different approach to markets.
By the way, let's backtrack one more second
because you said you have a lot of names
coming out with earnings.
So are you long app loving going into the print um for when it's the seventh app loving
no um no i'm i'm more of a small small mid-cap guy um and app loving um it just seems like
there's some interesting things happening at the company level there uh i think i feel
like a fool because i looked at that thing uh when it was that 80 bucks trading at 20 times free cash flow. And I was like, what's wrong
with this business? Why is it so cheap? And I looked at the estimates for the next 12
months on the top line. It said that they're going to slow down their growth to like 10,
14%. I'm like, oh, okay. 20 times free cash flow, growing 10, 15%. Maybe it's more fairly
valued than I thought.
And of course, you know, analysts were very dead wrong on that one.
And so, you know, when I miss that one, I'm not the type to chase things typically.
So, which is maybe the wrong thing.
It's just, you know, how I am personally.
I'm really, as much as I can, you know, I think the technicals for me tell me when to
enter a trade, when to exit a trade, when to to get cautious or bullish but I'm really fundamentally driven and so in that regard you know
like a like a magnite is more interesting to me again I'm I'm more of a smoke I
lean small caps because magnite yeah it was 21 bucks a couple months ago all the
ad names are still reporting great numbers the stocks at 12 bucks right now
they just and you know they have that partnership with Netflix. Netflix is probably a leader in this
market. They had great numbers and the ad tech, their ad tier offering is on fire, growing very
fast. So Magnet is a $2 billion business is getting a slice of that pie. So yeah, very strong
business ad companies reporting better than expected earnings.
They're partnered with Netflix.
And then you have the Google antitrust ruling, which I don't think is really getting as much
attention as it deserves.
But that will take time because of the remedies and the appeals and all those things.
But I'd expect a market that looks forward to start pricing things like that in ahead of time especially when the DOJ has been very clear that they expect a breakup of the Google's ad tech business which
you know is maybe a drop in the bucket for Google's overall ad revenue but when you're talking about
you know a two billion dollar company like magnite or a 500 million dollar company like plumatic
getting a larger market share
and higher value auctions that they get to participate in,
which can greatly shift their revenues,
profits, margins, et cetera, in that market.
You know, they're getting the crumbs.
Right now they're getting the crumbs of Google.
What happens when they start getting, you know,
a slice of that bread?
And I think that's what's going to come for these businesses.
So yeah, those are my largest positions. they both report this week but uh very cheap
valuations a lot of catalysts ahead and so whenever i'm thinking about you know names and
uh that are tied to the u.s consumer u.s economy i'm a lot more um i'm gonna be a lot quicker to
judge the output like the the results that they have, right? Like,
if they're slowing down in any certain way, like, I'm going to be quick to cut those kinds of
exposures. Whereas, you know, something like biotech, Latin America, I'm not feeling as,
from a fundamental perspective, I'm not feeling as concerned, because those are, you know,
industries and geographies that are going to be growing
regardless of if we have a slowdown here for the consumer.
So, yeah, I mean, while I'm extremely bullish and people say, how the heck are you 120%
long right now, especially into resistance, it's like, well, because I don't own a lot
of these things.
And not to say that equities aren't correlated at the moment, but I do think that at some
point, once we start getting more numbers out, there will be a bifurcation of um you know what is working and you know there's
always going to be a bull market somewhere and uh you know i'm kind of looking for that right now
i've never heard that statement before who says that
well it's been it's been pretty true i mean if we think about like even 2022 right energy and
commodities for the bull market i do think that in a slowing consumer environment, I think that it's potential that biotech could be that bull market. And we
think from like a worldwide perspective, I think that Latin America is one of the biggest
beneficiaries. You know, they're out of the tariff headline news. They're out of the news headlines.
I would consider them a tariff winner because they have like a blanket 10% tariff.
So, you know, and we don't really have that much trade with them.
So they're kind of doing their own thing.
And then you have political elections over there going right wing, fixing those economies.
You saw with Javier Mille in Argentina, you had Ecuador elections go to the right wing candidate two weeks ago.
This year you have Chile and the next year you have colombia and brazil so um and it looks like it's gonna go to the right wing candidate so
there's gonna be a big boom in latin america so i think that that is a pretty good place to be
so i want to continue to have like exposure there i probably have like maybe 15 of my portfolio 15
and 20. i've lowered it because we've gone on some a bit of a run with names like pag seguro and stone
uh stne which has been absolute like ripper stock this year um so yeah i mean those are you know
financials companies trading at like five six times earnings um in a growing economy so uh yeah
um yeah so while i'm very long i'm not i'm not long the Mag 7. I'm not long market cap weighted. I'm not long popular growth names that are trading at a hundred times sales. You know, it seems that right now that is working, but I'm just more, I have my fundamental hat on a little bit and I'm still using the technicals to guide me in terms of, you know, increasing or reducing exposure basically.
exposure basically well i'm going to look into mg and i before it reports nice little accumulation
pattern if you're looking at technicals you know it's a little inverse head and shoulders
pattern ahead of uh this you have another day or so seems like options are pretty cheap where
there's really not a lot of uh attention here so that could be a little hidden gem if you did your
fundamental work here you know the 200 days at 13.76 you could actually buy these options like
the 13 calls for you know not too much even the 12 calls for next friday are are only like a dollar
it's pretty interesting yeah yeah and um you know it's it's pubmatic as well uh both of those names
are you know excellent i think uh but magnite it's a little bit clearer because uh they have the ctv
tailwind and the netflix partnership and we already got netflix numbers so to me it's a little bit clearer because they have the CTV Tailwind and the Netflix partnership.
And we already got Netflix numbers.
So to me, it's a little bit more de-risk than a Pubmatic, which still is kind of trying to prove itself.
But yeah, man, I totally agree.
And again, I've studied both of these businesses for four years or so.
And yeah, the Google antitrust ruling is really being, it's flying under the radar.
But by later this year, once we get through the appeals process and remedies, et cetera,
those things take time.
All this stuff takes time.
But yeah, I mean, they just had that ruling against Google a couple of weeks ago.
So it's still pretty fresh.
And they have, but you know, that you know years and it finally came to an end
They ruled against Google and now
Comes the appeals and remedies and so that's gonna probably take through the rest of this year
So, you know, maybe that's why you want to have some duration if you want to hold these things longer term via shares or
Jan 27 leaps or something like that, which is what I'm mostly in. But, I mean, I still think there's an incredible upside, even X that,
just through the businesses, what they're valued at,
and, you know, the other tailwinds like the Netflix partnerships and whatnot.
All right, cool.
Great back and forth there, gentlemen.
Let's go to Gary next. How's my friend Gary with the blue check mark doing?
Uh, not only do I have blue check mark, but I just told Wolfie, uh, that, uh, I joined
the blue pill crowd.
I just went into HIMSS and I heard you guys talk about HIMSS.
I think with 28% short interest, GLP one, not factored into their last, uh, forward
estimates, a new partnership with Novo.
I just, I, I just Novo. I like the upside. I'll take the
downside, but I like the upside. So Palantir for me, I'm not even touching that one. I'm a guy who
sold out at 25, thought it was overvalued. Then it's the same story as Tesla. I just thought it
was overvalued, didn't buy it in 2018, started trading it and stuff like that.
So I'm kind of there. Now, I will tell you, as a long-term investor, my QQQ that I put six figures into, I'm up 10% on that one over the past few weeks.
VOO, which is just the S&P 500, I'm up 8% on that one, another six-figure position that I put in.
six-figure position that I put in. Meta, I put in a huge five-figure position. I'm up about 8%
on that one. CrowdStrike, a big five-figure position. I'm up 20% on that one. And Wells
Fargo, huge five-figure position. I'm up 13% on that. Don't miss the chance to get into those
financials because I think that's what you're going to see later in the year is just deregulation.
And those financials should start, especially if they can buy back their stock
like Wells Fargo can now. So I think somebody said it before. I think it was logical. There's a bull
market in every – there's a bull opportunity in every market. I don't know what Jim Kramer always
says. But again, I think there's opportunities in this market. I don't think that it's a straight market up. I'm not saying that. But in the
opportunities that you guys have had with these pullbacks, I don't care if we go down another 10,
15% a year from now. I just believe that these positions will be fine and I'll just pay long-term
capital gains on it. So that's usually the way I play it. More than likely, I'm going to lose
you money. Don't follow me.
Don't at me.
You know, you can send me a message of hate all you want.
I just got off the mountains in Denver.
I was out snow hiking for the past week.
So I'm in a pretty good mood.
So don't try and bring me down.
Gary, I replied to you with my average share price.
um with uh my average share price so that'll give you a little bit of context why
So that'll give you a little bit of context of why.
hey i'm just i'm hoping that you know something happens and we get into that short squeeze i just
think it's it's one of those things that i'm not risking money that i can't lose and so i'm not an
options player i'm too dumb to do options you guys that talk options it goes way over my head i am
literally probably one step above the quote
unquote short bus level as far as intelligence goes. So I just do this every now and then.
Sometimes it pays off. I'll just have my stop loss about 10%. And if I make 20% on a short
squeeze, I'm happy. Gary, with your new blue checkmark, have you dove into the world of Grok yet?
I have. In fact, it was funny with the whole John Elway story of him killing his agent on the golf cart.
I said I did a picture of J.D. Vance holding his agent's hand because we don't know J.D. Vance probably killed the Pope.
And he fumbled the, uh, the
college championship trophy. So, uh, I put a picture of that. So I have delved into Grok.
I think it's one of my favorite AIs that and perplexity are the two that I, uh, I particularly
like and Gemini is really good as well. I mean, they're just getting so good. I don't think that
that's a, um, an investment opportunity because I think they're good. They're all going to become
a commodity. They're all going to become a commodity.
They're all going to be incredibly good.
Some might be better at other things.
But I like Grok for the pictures.
It does a really good job.
Well, that John Elway thing is very interesting.
You just threw about three blacklist items on here.
We're probably all going to get shadow banned at this point, but it's all right. Just for you, Gary, we'll wear it.
Stock Sniper, we got about 10 minutes until these earnings. I do know you have thoughts around HIMSS for sure, but any thoughts you have around those?
And then if you want to break down any numbers or anything that you're looking at.
Yeah, you know, there's a couple of things that I want to touch on.
You know, the first thing I want to say is welcome to the Grok
Gang. Gary, it's nice to have you in here, man. I love the attitude that you have there around
HIMSS and around a bunch of other different companies that you were just mentioning previously.
Just about pretty much taking shots and, you know, playing with money that you can't lose.
It's very important to understand people's perspectives,
and I think that that's a very big key there.
And a lot of people need to do a better job of understanding people's perspectives.
One thing I want to talk about is it just came out maybe 10 minutes ago or so,
but Trump is going to sign an executive order promoting domestic drug manufacturing.
This is going to affect HIMSS, Novo Nordisk, and Eli Lilly.
I'm not really sure how exactly this is going to affect it, but I'm pretty interested to see what this headline kind of comes of.
With HIMSS, there's a couple of things that I really want to break down and talk about.
You know, and I got some information on Palantir and a couple of the other names reporting today as well.
But, you know, with HIMSS, we're coming into this report about 20% lower than the previous one, so I feel a lot better about this one.
You know, there's a lot of people having some valuation concerns for HIMSS coming into the previous report.
And again, it was priced for absolute perfection going into the last report at $50.
You know, coming into this at $40, it's a lot better.
And, you know, considering that it's had some pretty nice momentum over the last week, I'm
feeling a lot better about this report than the previous one.
The open interest on this name is pretty comparable but um when i take a look at
this on hymns we have an implied move of six dollars and 73 cents or 16.31 um we cannot forget
the previous reactions of hymns last quarter we saw a minus 22.32 uh reaction. HEMS actually ended up beating on revenue and EPS. However, they got it down.
And also, at the same time, they were announcing semi-glutide shortages or GLP-1 shortages are,
you know, kind of coming out of play. And a lot of people were shaken out of the position or sold
off because of them at the time. You know, another thing that I want to bring up also is the short
interest on HEMS has been climbing consistently for the last couple of weeks. So, you know another thing that i want to bring up also is the short interest on hims has
been climbing consistently for the last couple of weeks so you know that possibility and you know
that first time where we really saw this name come into the 50s we saw the short interest uh
completely shift um as hims was soaring through 40 levels um so you know it does have a pretty
similar setup and on a good report could there there be a short squeeze? Absolutely. It is possible with as high short interest as it is.
Am I betting on it?
No, I'm not personally.
I've been holding shares for quite a while right now.
And, you know, I'm just going to be watching.
I personally don't see any need or any desire to sell this name.
So, therefore, I'm just holding it.
I'm in a pretty similar situation to Wolfie, I presume.
But that's pretty much how I'm attacking this HEMS earnings.
The next thing that I really kind of want to cover or talk about and i'm just going to talk about it briefly but i know a lot
of you guys are here for this one um we have forward earnings coming it's only a 59 cent
implied move or 5.85 but in the previous reactions we could see ford is never really a nothing burger
we could see a minus 7.49 reaction minus 8.44 minus 18.36 and then plus 0.69 since last report, though, it's only up 1.5%, pretty much at the same exact spot.
In the open interest, nothing is really unusual on Ford.
There is also a lot of catalysts going around about that name, a lot of uncertainties,
especially in the automobile sector with the tariffs.
So, you know, I imagine that the open interest is a little bit lower than normal because
a lot of people are uncertain of the future for
You know the one that we're all here for or the main event and you know
The one that is probably the most exciting and you know the one that will probably have us
Staring at the computer for the longest after close is Palantir technologies with Palantir
We're looking at a $14.84 implied move. This is extremely high for Palantir
11.93%. And the one thing that jumps out to me and looks absolutely even crazier about Palantir is the previous
reactions. Last report, we saw a plus 23.99% reaction. We cannot forget that one. It was a
monstrous report. Before that, it was plus 23.47, you know, did the same exact thing two quarters ago.
And then we saw plus 10.38% three quarters ago.
Four quarters ago, we saw minus 15.11% negative reaction.
But since the last report, Palantir Technologies is up 48.57% coming into this open interest,
coming into this report with 3,222,317 open interest, which is exceptionally high for Palantir. This is going to be definitely the most exciting earnings of the day. All these numbers that I've read off also are all posted
throughout the page, so there's no need to tag me and ask about them. But yeah, some pretty exciting
earnings. We also have the Realty Income. I have all of those numbers posted for that one. I imagine
there's a lot less people here for that one, so I won't go ahead and read that one off.
But that will be posted on the page if you guys are looking for that one.
And as far as HIMSS goes, another comment that I really want to mention is HIMSS has not missed on revenue.
HIMSS is 16 for 16 in their last reports, and Palantir is 16 for 17 in their last reports on revenue.
year is 16 for 17 in their last reports on revenue. Both of these names are insanely
consistent and if you take a look at the two tweets that I pinned in the nest above, you
can look through the revenue and you will see such a steady growth for quite a prolonged
period of time and you'll see how insanely consistent both of these companies are and
that's why a lot of people are interested in these companies in case if anybody was wondering.
That's pretty much all I got for the earnings today.
Sniper, when you were going through your thoughts there on HIMSS and domestic production and stuff,
were you saying that was a net positive or net negative for HIMSS?
I was saying that that's a net undecided.
I think I really kind of want to see what really happens with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordis
and see what's going on and what their plans are.
But HIMSS has already mentioned about making a Made in America chain and brand.
They've mentioned this probably for the last two weeks simultaneously on the same time
the pharmaceutical tariffs were announced.
But there's also points when these were mentioned to be paused.
You know, I think it still is a little too soon to tell as far as that goes,
especially considering the news is about 15 minutes old right now.
It definitely does seem, though, like the market does not like that headline when it came out.
We can definitely see we're trading lower since we saw there.
All right. Appreciate those thoughts. We've got about two and a half
minutes or so here until the bell, and we'll get some of those numbers out for everyone.
Monit, if I haven't got over to you yet, I wanted to see if you had any thoughts around the
conversation or anything that hadn't been mentioned yet. Not much. I was going to go
through numbers, but we'll skip that since we're going to go into
earnings so just a couple of notes on what people talked about um corby very interesting uh you know somewhere between 60 and 60 percent and two-thirds of the revenue comes from microsoft so if if
microsoft is is is reducing their build velocity in their data center, which they sort of hedged on, and a lot of news has been going out about it.
And the latest news that, as far as I can see, is that even this, you know, projects in progress right now and slated for completion are being, you know reduced so if that's the case then and given that they they they are you know
doing very well my guess is that they're going to lean more on core weave's capacity to to to move
their customers there at least temporarily till they sort out why whatever it is that they are
you know backing off on data center bills so that's a a positive for CoreWeave. So I don't have a position just saying
that it is by far CoreWeave's largest customer.
The next largest customer is under 20%.
So if you want to, so they're thrice as large
as the second largest customer.
So that's CoreWeave.
Wells Fargo, just want to make a quick comment.
There's a good reason why they went with such a large buyback
they are still under federal reserves uh you know um restriction for uh you know sub two trillion
market uh capital uh sorry uh balance sheet size so they have to stay under 1.997 trillion something
like that so they really cannot employ their capital you know
effectively anyway to to go beyond that so you know they are in a position where they're just
buying back it is possible that comes off and they could uh you know uh you know use their leverage
to to to use that money for a better return than than just buying back. That's been talked about for a long time.
We don't know it yet, but that is something that will come up again this year.
But that's the reason why they're doing such a large buyback is they cannot use the money anyways.
So that's Wells Fargo.
In general, I think the earnings season has been better than most people had expected, certainly better than I had expected. We are running at about 13.5%, 13.6% earnings growth to date. That is extrapolating the rest of, we're at 75%. So if you extrapolate that out, we're at 13%. If you just stop with earnings today we're at almost 15 and 15.8 percent
and revenue growth is also very healthy at 4.6 percent so so it has been a very very very good
earning season but that's of course uh backward looking uh there's a lot of unknown about uh
about guidance uh everybody we've talked about it before so i'm not going to rehash that
again that still remains to be seen so i'll stop right there we'll uh we'll get into earnings here
i appreciate those thoughts monitor of course if you're wondering stock talk couldn't make it today
and evan's flight got delayed so i'm uh just steering the ship by myself up here today so of course anybody
i was hoping evan was at the uh the the berkshire wasn't he yeah he caused buffett to retire you
believe that it's all i was hoping to hear a little bit from him today so maybe tomorrow
yeah i heard a little bit this morning but as he was planning on being here but his flight
got delayed i think he's mid-air right now so uh obviously uh frowned upon when you uh try to get on it i actually got yelled at
that i was on spaces one day uh and uh plane was about to take off they yelled at me for
communicating i don't know how that works but uh don't do that um but yeah if y'all see any of
these numbers come out uh feel free to call them out if you've got any other headlines or anything. I've got 10 charts in front of me and a squawker going.
I'm refreshing, looking for Palantir numbers, HIMSS numbers.
Was it logical you were looking for Bank of Columbia as well, weren't you?
Yep.
We also got Ford and we got Income Realty, or Realty Income.
Yeah, I've also heard Vertex called out, the RTX.
Yeah, there's a couple other ones.
There's Vertex.
There's, like you guys said, Ford.
There's, sorry, Fang, which is an energy name.
There's just a couple.
And then tomorrow, there's a couple as well.
Yeah, tomorrow morning, Celsius, Datadog, Dash, Wolf, your Ferrari.
My Ferrari.
Vimeo is another one that I want to see their earnings.
And Ford, you guys mentioned, you just kind of glossed over, but it's interesting because they cut the prices on their cars
when the tariff headline came out saying they're going to cut it to employee pricing.
So I want to see if they actually drummed up any sales on the back of that.
And they actually have a really good read-through on some of these tariff impacts
because they get a lot of their parts from Mexico and
they do have some,
some manufacturing plants in Mexico and some other stuff in Canada.
So it's going to be interesting to see how they play out.
Yeah,
for sure.
I didn't know Vimeo was still around until I saw it on the earnings calendar
today,
to be a hundred percent honest.
It's still,
it's still north of
a billion dollars.
To me, it's interesting because it could be a
bolt-on acquisition
at some point.
Their left earnings
were pretty abysmal.
Yeah.
As a business,
it's not ideal.
Another one for the tariff stuff is Mattel.
Oh, yeah.
Barbie bumped last summer.
I believe it was last summer.
And now it's, you know, facing that tariff stuff.
I do see some of these numbers come out.
Fing, that's Diamondback Energy, came out.
Double Beat.
Looks like they lowered guidance a guidance a little bit vertex
pharmaceuticals double miss oh oof the rtx double top that one's a double top too then
it's only down on the back of this yeah only down 2.8 but a double miss there looks like they uh
slightly lower guidance not really a big guidance there.
I'm waiting on Palantir, waiting on HIMSS.
I think those are the big ones for today.
Market's continuing back down basically to where we opened now this morning.
I gave back this entire grind up here in the last hour or so.
Palantir trading down.
Haven't seen anything yet.
I'll call it out as soon as I hear it.
Pretty flat.
Yes.
123.
I got like four little thingies right now.
They moved quickly.
Another couple
favorites during, you know, a couple
years ago especially. Digital Ocean.
Upwork was
another favorite from back in the day.
And Lemonade.
Alright. Ford is out.
Hems is moving too.
Hems is down 3%.
Let's see. There goes power. Sorry.
I'll get these numbers as soon as I see them on my screen here.
I mean,
it's like recovering
Ford suspended
guidance due to tariffs.
That's fair.
Soccer, right?
And MSTR dropped an offer.
Apple did a buyback.
Surprises of the market
the last week.
Vertex missed by
the balance yields a slight
beat it's a 3%
beat on revenue
and inline EPS
13 cents
13 cents on EPS so
slight beat on revenue
inline
on EPS
do you have a number for revenue?
Yeah, it's
883 million.
883 million.
Expected 862 million.
Very nice.
Vertex was a $4.06
per share earnings.
19 cent miss.
It missed on revenue as well.
And it got revs in line for the year.
Is he is he's out?
I don't think it's out.
I haven't seen it.
It was moving.
I haven't seen it.
Palantir is moving higher now.
Okay.
I got him.
Hims expectations.
12 cent EPS actual 20 cents revenue expectations expectations 538.87 million actual 586.01 million
smashed revenue or nine percent beat by revenue so valentier beat on the revenue i see that now
201 versus 195 but they were i'm sorry. Where'd it go?
I think a bunch of names just came out.
Okay, 883 versus 862.
They were in line on the EPS from what I'm seeing, 13 cents.
Cells, they raised guidance
from 899 to 934 to 938.
That's Q2 C sells for Palantir.
Mattel is out.
I haven't seen FEMS anywhere yet, by the way.
I just read them.
I see results here.
Yeah, it's 586 mil, up 111%.
Net income, 49.5 million. Just 111% net income 49.5 million just to leave it a 91.1 million
they I think a big thing here is they introduced 2030 targets of at least 6.5 billion in revenue
and 1.3 billion and just to leave it up and those are bonkers numbers to be honest. Yeah,
Realty income, 28 cent EPS, expectations 38 cents, 1.31 billion revenue, expectations 1.30.
Slight revenue beat and 26% EPS miss.
So volunteer guidance went full year or fiscal year 2025 guidance from basically 3.75 they put it up to
3.89 to 3.90 that's a pretty big raise on guidance so i just did 130 a share a new all-time high oh
my god i'm actually so happy to see this because i would love to see this market keep ripping higher
and i thought palantir and hymSS were a good reason for that to continue.
I mean, but the reaction is like on a relative basis is muted, right?
So it's...
We'll see.
We're up like 40, 50% on these names in a couple of weeks.
The fact that they didn't sell off 20, 30% is a huge win here.
That's not what I'm saying, dude.
Those are two different comments than the one you made.
The comment you made was you would love to see it rip on the back of these earnings and i'm saying
as of right now they haven't moved like it's 125 spot 50 so it's destroyed premium the move's going
to come in the next couple of days so sure if it actually moves in the next couple of days
you're going to see fall through otherwise if it kind of sits here i wouldn't be surprised to see some selling on the back of it just for some profit taking the move hasn't happened it's
it's it gave you the the beat it gave you the raise
yeah hems is also down four percent again it briefly went to a new hive day just came back
in there a little bit
monitor if anything sticking out to you on these numbers no I'm not as fast as
you guys I look through all the details so it it's going to take me some time.
It's like HIMSS did Q2 sells. They raised a little bit from 540 midpoint to 564.
For your guidance, they basically reaffirmed, pushed a little bit higher, 2.32 billion. Now they're seeing 2.3 to 2.4.
I also saw Mattel suspended their guidance, of course,
similar to Ford.
Any of these tariff-impacted names just are like, oh, we're on it.
Here's a bright spot for a beaten-up name.
Upwork beat by 7 cents, beats on revenues.
Q2 in line, full year raised above consensus
here you go up work up 5.48 here
vimeo double beat that's funny
they they really destroyed they're really destroying the premium both ways on
palantir and hymns right now
yeah pretty much unchanged at this point um the videos continued down a little bit lower here in after
hours from the close but nothing really notable sam solid i saw you snook in here did you uh
are you back stateside yep got back in friday i am suffering right now
pretty jet lagged yeah i mean i've been looking at the rates. I'm actually surprised
that we were bouncing pretty hard, but the rates really are just unchanged from the lows or as far
as the bonds go. The yields are near the pivot highs, around 4.35%. We did get a sizable bounce
though on the bonds toward the end of the day,
which is pretty ironic to see.
But that was just as the market was continuing
to pull back. So I'm keeping an eye on rates
during this whole move.
I was short a little bit using
SQQQ, but
kind of took a little bit of profits there
as we were bouncing pretty hard during the day.
Obviously, that was bad timing, but
I mean, still, you know, still sitting on a little bit of cash here. It's just difficult to
continue to see massive upside in the market in the near term, considering that there was a lot
of price thing movement for the assumptions that a lot of the deals are going to come in. And then
quickly the narrative shift over the weekend,
which is just right back to where we were before,
where we just get the new news over the weekend as far as the tariffs go.
For a while, I thought Netflix, Spotify, and all those streaming platforms,
oh, yeah, these guys will be untouched during the whole thing.
And then all of a sudden you get that tariff news,
100% tariffs regarding foreign films being imported.
It just makes no sense what is actually happening,
what's being put on the table.
You think that maybe we just get a little bit of a reprieve here
as far as volatility goes for the narrative,
but it just keeps changing.
So, you know, just still sticking to the guns.
I mean, generally, short-term, I am a little bit bearish, but long term, I think the thesis is still there as far as AI goes. I don't think that's necessarily going to change anytime soon. I mean, they're going to be bringing a lot of onshoring, might see some heightened costs a little bit, but I am keeping an eye on the economic data for some opportunity in the future but as far as like generally getting bearish the entire market for the long-term perspective i don't think that's necessarily
there for me um i am keeping an eye on this uh on the hymns earnings i'm trying to dig into these
numbers right now because i do have a position that i got back into hymns in the around 28
was fortunate enough to get that huge bounce about about 42%, just the next day, less than 24 hours after I bought it, which is awesome.
So I did trim a little bit around the $40 range, but still holding on to a good sizable amount of hymns right now.
I guess I got pretty lucky.
I did have a large hymns position, probably around the low 20s, and then sold it as it kept going up uh well before
the 70s but uh got back in because i do believe in the long-term thesis for hims uh i am a little
cautious around amazon and really a lot of other companies on the short term medium term not not
the long term amazon is definitely a big position of mine but as far as impacts from tariffs, and we've seen the massive inventory
build up as far as a lot of companies trying to front load from the tariffs happened for quite
some time, probably about a few weeks now. And that's all going to fall off probably this week
as the chief, I forget the name of the guy, but the person who's basically the head of the Port of Los Angeles, which is the largest container repository and importer from China.
We're going to get a 35% drop off this week. And is that necessarily going to recover and
normalize? I mean, I don't know. They front load for a reason. And all that front loading
did mean that they have to hire a lot of temporary workers or even a lot of workers to handle all the inventory that was coming in, which is very high above the norm.
So I believe that what we saw on Friday as far as the job growth goes, or sorry, as far as the US ADP payroll goes,
I believe that was a factor of the massive front loading of inventory that you need people to actually help bring in that inventory.
And is that number going to drop off after? Well, we did see the March payrolls actually drop about 60,000 jobs on that revision, but we did get a 34,000 job beat as far as the data goes on Friday.
So I'm going to keep an eye on that one. Wage growth is actually slowing down a little bit. So I mean, more money
out, less money in is the way that I'm seeing, along with inflation kind of becoming a little
sticky here, but unemployment's a little bit tight. So I'm going to monitor the whole situation
because I do think we might get some opportunity to get some better prices than we're seeing today.
But either way, as far as the market goes, we did reject that 200-day
last Friday on the Qs. And that was actually pretty interesting. So it's like, oh, wow,
that comes in timely when the narrative starts to switch the other way around versus the massive
optimism. Now we're seeing a little bit of uncertainty put back in the tariffs. So
I'm just kind of staying put here,
just seeing as far as what's going to happen
or how the tariffs is going to unroll
and continue to dig into earnings.
This is a really big week for me.
A lot of my companies are reporting this week,
especially Mercado Libre.
That's a very big one.
I'm not sure.
Is NewBank reporting this week?
Forget. I didn't get an alert i don't think it's until next week oh yeah may 13 yeah may 13 next week
uh but grab they actually had well not grab necessarily but there's that whole talk about
the acquisition or the merger whatever
they want to call it between grab and go to and it was actually pretty interesting seeing a lot
of people step down from the board for go to like around the same time and then grab
hi you know i gotta actually look that one up but there's a lot of moves being made for a uh we don't want to comment on
an acquisition of go-to from the grab cfo so we didn't hear any clarity during the earnings call
or even anywhere in the press release for the last earnings for grab that they had last week
and i'm surprised no analysts actually asked about it specifically um There was an indirect question that was put in there. And Peter Oye,
the CFO, he did say that they're looking to be a bit strategic in terms of acquisitions they're
making, but obviously did not say anything or any specifics about GoTo. And of course,
didn't deny it either. So, you know, going to wait and see what's going to happen. I think
it's going to happen. And if it does, that will be very good as far as Grab continuing to take market share of Southeast Asia whenever it comes to the three arms.
It's delivery, mobility, and also financial arm.
And they also have stake in Time Group, which is also kind of like the new bank, but for South Africa and the Philippines.
So it's going to be pretty interesting seeing that build out. But Grab is definitely, oh, I'm sorry, that was New
Bank that did that one. But Grab is definitely in the fintech sector for Southeast Asia. So
going to continue to see that one. But so far, so good. I mean, it doesn't look like,
I think we are in a recession right now.
I know that's a very big side to take on that one.
But at the same time, the data is just getting materially worse.
It's not like falling off a cliff or anything, but it is still continuing.
It's trending down.
We just need to wait to see what's going to happen to inflation. But with oil pulling back to the lows over here, it's pretty ironic that – well, not really ironic, but that if the Fed does say or if Jerome Prowse says on Wednesday, hey, we're going to remain data dependent.
I just feel like at some point they are going to cut, of course, and it's likely going to happen this year.
But by the time they do do that, I think it might be a little too late, but not necessarily saying that we're going to be in a
massive recession or anything. I think if there will be a recession, it'll just be a shallow one.
But at the same time, we got to keep an ear on is if anything breaks, because if something breaks,
that's when things might get a little bit worse. But at the same time, I mean, I think we've been
a long way since the global financial crisis in 2008.
And I think the systems and the balances have already put in place to prevent that sort of thing from happening.
So I'm definitely a bit optimistic about that, you know, because no one wants to wish a recession in the economy.
Like, yes, of course, we're going to get better prices in the stock market, but that's going to be a really crappy time for a lot of people.
So just keep an eye on the data. Staying dated, Bennett.
And obviously going to be busy this week with earnings.
Glad to have you back.
Go ahead.
I just want to say I posted the earnings details for Palantir and HIMSS up top
for anybody who wants to go through them.
Cool. Check them out.
I'll check.
Yeah, I did see HEMS.
What was it?
Gross profit margin missed slightly on this.
It was just about four points or so.
But nothing too concerning.
I saw a headline Nike named a new president.
That's NKE.
And there was one.
Oh, you were mentioning the rates there, Sam.
That's the other thing I was going to hit on.
I've been watching the FedWatch tool for June's meeting or Wednesday's meeting.
I think it's pretty much said and done that there's going to be no action taken there.
But it has moved significantly over the last week.
We were at a 60 percent rate cut probability for the June 18th meeting.
That has now dropped under 30% or right at 30% for any type of cut going into June,
the next meeting after this Wednesday.
So interesting, you brought up rates.
I just wanted to throw that piece in there as well.
Yeah, I mean, they're going to keep pushing back that rate cut
and they're going to do whatever the market throws at them. So if the market says they're not going to cut this Wednesday, they're not going to cut. They don't want to surprise the bond market. If they do cut out of nowhere, then that's going to cause a little bit of volatility in terms of the bond market. And we've already seen quite enough volatility. They don't want to lose control of that because they do control only the short-term rates.
They do not control the long end of the curve.
And if they lose control of that short end of the curve,
which is very less likely, what was that?
Yield control might come into play.
That's probably not going to happen,
but they're not going to let the long end of the curve run away from them like that.
So as far as I see it,
oh, Pound here is here making lower lows here. But as far as I'm seeing, though, I think it's
just a bit of wait and see what's going to happen with Trump as far as the tariffs go. I mean,
are these tariffs going to continue being effective? He's kind of taking the market on a
run back and forth. And ironically, the long-term rates is what
Bissent is actually keeping an eye on. And if those long-term yields continue riding up,
that's not necessarily going to paint a great picture for exactly what they want
when it comes to the rolling refinancing of their debt. It's not all going to be at once,
but it's going to be over time. But Bissette said many times, he does not want to refinance in the front end.
He wants to refinance in the long end.
He's criticized Janet Yellen many times about that.
So I'm going to continue to wait and see because I think in this case, I think the rates do matter.
I don't think we're going to get rates rising high above 4.5% and then continue to see all-time highs.
I think there's a certain breaking point that comes into the market when it comes to the rates. And I think we're kind of reaching around
that breaking point here around 4.35 in the 10-year where the market's starting to take a step back,
which is like, oh, yeah, hold on. Let's just relax a little bit here and start to wait and
see what the market instead of just continuing to rally. Because if those rates go past 4.5%,
that's going to mean pretty bad business for a lot of the smaller businesses,
which are already getting hit as well, but also the medium-sized businesses as far as their debt
goes, and especially software companies. Software companies, they have a considerable amount of
debt in fact that their valuation is based more on the future expectations. They do provide
that contract revenue that has not been realized yet, and that's the remaining performance obligations.
Software companies are very forward-looking, and when you've got the 10-year above 4.5%, even at these levels, that's not necessarily going to paint a good picture for medium-sized and small-sized companies.
Yeah, great thoughts there, Sam.
I was going to go back to your...
Wait, back to your Nike point.
It wasn't just a new president.
So they also have...
They also announced a new chief innovator
and design and product officer.
Then they moved up chief marketing officer and then a growth
initiatives officer.
And then Heidi O'Neill is set to retire.
So they like shook up a lot of people at the top and they said they want to
have these changes to quote,
accelerate growth and drive win now action plans and quote.
We need, we need more winning out of nike for sure it's probably a good plan win now i was gonna go to hamid i think we lost him uh so uh i see
mr kevin green has joined us this afternoon always good to hear from you how are you kevin
i'm doing pretty good man man. How about yourself?
Oh, not too bad. Steering the ship alone up here with Stock Talk and Evan out of pocket.
Oh, you're doing a phenomenal job, man. Don't let anybody tell you any differently.
Look, I mean, after nine days, having a pullback, I think it's not, you know, it should be normal, right?
So having a pullback here today, don't really like the candle, but I mean, the trend has been to the upside.
What I find very interesting
and what makes this market
a little bit difficult right now,
if you follow the technicals,
if you look at the weekly,
you pull up a weekly chart,
put a 20, 50 and 200 day
or 200 week moving average on those
and just pull up every sector,
I would say probably what, nine out of
the 11, eight out of the 11 are pretty much hitting an inflection point of either the 20-week or the
50-week moving average. If you look at the MACDs on these, they all look like they really want to
cross into bullish formation, right? And so you're kind of in a little bit of a rock and a hard place
given the fact that we have the economic data, or not the economic data, but the Fed meeting this week,
I think it makes it a little bit tough.
That being said, I kind of, and I hate saying this,
but like if you're looking at the charts,
and I have to be like objective about this,
like if you look at the charts,
do we see a little bit of maybe some headwinds
in the near term?
Yes.
But I do believe that, you know,
if you wanted to play the longer term,
when I say a longer term, I, like the June contracts, June expiration, you look at the monthlies, you can look at in a month, June, or even go out to July, probably could get some bullish activity or some bullish positioning there and be able to weather a storm, right, by a little bit of time. Because I think those MACD crosses, for the most part, if you kind of go back and look at how they cross on the weeklies,
we usually do see around a three-week to at least a four-week follow-through to the upside for that.
So I think that there is some risk for a pullback for the Fed meeting. Obviously,
we're not going to see any rate cuts. In my opinion,
the possibility of a June rate cut probably should be taken off the table. We just don't
have enough time. It's a race against time and data. And I get the fact that, hey, the Fed might
be late, they probably should be cutting right now. I understand that. In a normal cycle without
tariffs, you can make that case. I would be down for that. I think earlier this year, we were kind of all talking about what are we looking for this year. I was looking at two rate cuts, maintenance cut in June, and then another maintenance cut in December, right?
I could have made that call of like, yeah, we should be cutting in June at least for the maintenance side. Optically, though, it's really bad. If you have tariff policy,
you don't know what the impact is going to be on price. So I think that's a risk for the Fed.
They know that. Look, Jerome Powell doesn't want to go down as the other Fed chairman that cut rates too early knowing that there's some implied risk when it comes to prices.
What I do believe that what's going to happen with prices, though, is that you're going to see
a short-term blip to the upside in certain items. And I think you probably will see a pretty
decent drop-off. So Sam brought up the ports. Everybody's talking about the ports. Yes, you are seeing a
drop-off. It will level off here. I think over the next like four weeks or so, if you're kind
of looking at the data, because when you're looking at shipping data, it's not like, oh man,
like what actually happened this week? Like we know what's going to happen this week.
For the most part, we know what's going to happen next week. For the most part, we know what's
going to happen for the following week, right? So you're kind of looking
three, four weeks out to try to guess, okay, what's going to happen here? If we last in this
tariff regime or in this stance of 145% tariffs for China for another three weeks, four weeks,
things will materially break. It's just a fact. Two reasons why. One, the warehouses that a lot of these
container ships are going to are full. So even if you brought things over here, unless you're
going to take that cargo immediately off that ship and then take it to your facility and pay
that tariff straight up, a lot of that cargo right now is being taken off the ship and being embargoed in a warehouse. And until that individual or that company picks up that inventory
from that warehouse, they don't get charged a tariff. So you have a lot of companies right now
that are pretty much embargoing their inventory right now, willing to pay port fees to even delay
that in order to try to avoid these tariffs in the hopes that this policy is
not going to be on for the next three weeks or so. And you'll see a massive influx. I don't think
that's going to be the case. I think you will see, people are like, oh, it's going to be like COVID-19.
Certain things will, right? It's not going to be everything. We have to be mindful of that. In fact,
I would say that beef prices for the most part, probably are going to come everything. We have to be mindful of that. In fact, I would say that beef prices, for the most part,
probably are going to come down, right?
The food items, for the most part, will actually be OK.
That was the scary thing about COVID-19.
It's different than this time around, where we were actually,
I mean, like when you saw bare shells,
you couldn't even buy food in some respects, right?
Or you had to buy something that was gluten-free.
That was the thing that made me laugh.
The only thing that were on the shelves
or everything that was gluten-free.
That's when people really freak out.
But you're going to see more shortages
when it comes to consumer discretionary items,
clothing, things of that nature for the everyday person, right?
There's going to be impacts
when it comes to industrial manufacturing, yes.
But I don't think it's to the
level of bare you know shelves in every single aisle i don't think that's going to be the case
um that being said i think actually if you kind of look at some industrial companies the industrial
chart if you're looking at the weekly in my opinion probably looks the best out of all of them
um just because it's already
right now, for the most part, actually completing its MACD cross. And if you do have this influx,
let's say that we do get the tariffs brought down, you're going to see a massive run to those
ports, to those warehouses, get that inventory out, you're going to see a little bit of a boom.
When you're looking at locomotives freight
by rail that actually is seeing a boom right now too those companies and those stocks have been a little bit depressed rightfully so but they actually might prefer perform really well in
this earnings season coming up before this current quarter which they'll report in like
two months two months from now they actually might be doing really well.
And if they cut tariffs between this time
and when they report next,
their guidance actually probably could
outperform the street's expectations.
So I like the industrial side of it,
but it's very hard to pick a specific industrial stock.
So I would go with an ETF or a couple of different ones
rather than trying to pick one over the other.
Like a GE for Nova, for instance, right?
Industrial, that stock's looking phenomenal.
It's like really hard to try to buy it up here.
Whereas if you look at UNP, which is going to have the West Coast exposure,
that one's actually a little bit depressed.
So that's something to keep on the radar there.
I don't see the Fed actually kind of giving any signal for rate cuts, but for the bulls,
there is a possibility that the Fed or that Jerome Powell comes out with commentary regarding
setting the stage for potential quantitative easing policies in the event that they need to do so.
And they formalize that outside of some of these conversations that we had before the blackout period. If he formalizes that, or you see a situation where they maybe slow down MBS runoff, they
completely stop, which I think we're only running off for like $5 billion or something
like that.
It's very small compared to what we were running off for U.S. treasuries.
They actually end that policy.
I think that would be your signal that they're ready to do something.
And I think that would be your signal that they're ready to do something. And I think that would be ultimately bullish. I think the event's bearish, but that could be your bullish sign that I have to keep that in mind there.
So that's kind of the crude.
Last thing I want crude is is having some some problems here.
The OPEC situation, they're increasing production. There's two things, a couple of things, right? There's this notion that they're increasing production because major countries, bigger
countries like Saudi Arabia were pissed off around Iraq and Kazakhstan and their production because
they've been overproducing for like the last year and a half, two years. And so they wanted to be
able to raise those production levels to try to eat into that pie and try to keep them in line.
I understand that. I think that's something to be said there. I also do believe that there's also
a pricing war situation that's going on. And I'm going to put my conspiratorial hat here,
but I think we are about to sacrifice. And I think Josh talked about this last week, but I think we
are right now about to sacrifice our own domestic
production. And I think that's unfortunate because like my buddy, he works in shale out in Oklahoma.
Oklahoma had this huge boom bust cycle of people that follow energy, but huge boom bust cycle. And
now they're just literally getting rigs back online and trying to expand out there again.
And it seems like they might have to shut down operations again, which is unfortunate and giving that back to
the Saudis. So can prices continue to go lower? Yes, they can. I still think geopolitical risk
premiums is not being priced in at all, but no one's really pricing that in. Not a recommendation,
but if you go out and if you could stomach it, if you're an energy charity, you go out and you look at selling the 45 puts.
And you've looked at July's, looking at the November contracts, going past August, I mean, there's actually some pretty decent premium out there.
You can even do a put spread to buy something that's super out of the money to reduce and margin requirements and things of that nature.
If oil were to get down to 45, which is a possibility that it could, that would be a significant value area, not only for oil itself, but also for energy companies.
Energy companies I don't think are there yet,
but it is something that I am now keeping on my radar
a little bit more.
The Trump administration has to be very careful.
The rapid move in energy prices to the downside,
especially when you're looking at oil,
could also bite them in the butt when it does stabilize.
It's not an if.
It's not like oil will never trade at 75.
Oil will never trade at 100 again.
It eventually will get there.
It's just a matter of when.
And they're going into a bullish season right now.
So we have market forces pushing prices lower, but you technically do have the seasonal effect of that should be kind of bullish.
So I think that's something that should be mindful.
You have too quick of a move to the downside
for energy prices and gasoline
and a collapse of gasoline prices,
which is not happening at the pump, mind you,
just happening in futures.
The pump, it's been actually fairly stabilized.
But if you do get that,
let's say for two or three months,
we bottom out and then we start seeing prices going higher,
what's that going to do
to inflation? So there's got to be a decent balance there. I'm sure the administration
could care less, but there should be a little bit of a decent balance there because that'll
just fuel into the narrative of stagflation because the economic data, in my opinion,
like Sam was talking about, two weeks or two months, three months from now will show the economy slowing. Outside of GDP, I'm ranting, but GDP will have a positive print. What will be
interesting is consumption in Q2, but a lot of, there's people are like, hey, there's this massive
disconnect, what's happening between imports and inventory. Inventory, what we measure in GDP is finalized
goods that are ready for consumption, final consumption, not intermediate goods. So we've
had a significant amount of imports coming in. But once again, what did I say? You put them,
you warehouse them, you embargo them at certain locations, or if those goods are going to be used
to, let's say, put together a car, you buy a whole bunch of tires, you bring those tires in, you don't count those tires and you don't count those parts of that car
as two separate transactions, right? Because one is going to be utilized for the final product of
another. So it's a weird mathematical thing that's going to happen. So you're going to see inventory
balloon. You're going to see imports completely drop off
and that'll actually be net net positive.
Now, if we still have a negative print in Q2,
that means consumption completely fell off a map
and that would confirm the recession.
So I'll kick it back.
I knew I threw a lot there,
but I think that's some good stuff
for people to kind of think about here,
not only with the macro,
but also maybe some industry specific areas of the market.
Go ahead, Sam, jump in.
Yeah, no, I was gonna say, as far as the consumption goes,
I mean, you could already see consumer confidence.
Like I wouldn't say falling off a cliff,
which is continuing its downtrend,
which is where it had been for the last year.
I mean, wouldn't you think that consumption would not necessarily be impacted table will be impacted next few months
because of that and i'm not trying to speculate so much in macros i'm definitely not an economist
when it comes to this stuff i'm just looking as far as how it's going to affect my holdings
in my portfolio go ahead yeah no um so it it just depends. And I hate giving you that answer. I see Monitive up here. He'll
probably he could probably talk about this on the business level side of it. But there's a
you slow consumption when you have lack of confidence. Hey, I might be my job might be
at risk, things of that nature. Right. The thing that we don't know, or I don't know, because we don't have a lot of use cases for this
because of the aggressive nature of these tariffs, and I'll call it fear buying, right? But are
people actually still consuming goods because of the risk of tariffs? For instance, automotive sales spiked January, February, rightfully so. People
didn't want to pay tariffs on automotives because that's a really hefty bill. So you saw this pull
forward effect, but was that pull forward effect something that those consumers really wanted to
buy at that time because it just fit within their plan or did they actually accelerate that
purchase because of the risk?
Companies are doing the same thing.
Purchasing managers, if you look at PMIs, they feel like crap, right?
They're not really optimistic right now.
But on the other hand here, you just saw a complete pull forward in imports
because they want to get ahead of the tariffs, right?
Fear buying.
And so I don't know.
I don't know if
consumption really drops off a cliff because there's people that, even myself, like I'm
looking at phones. I rarely buy phones. I'll buy a phone when it actually like physically breaks
and I can't use a button or something of that nature, right? But now I'm like, oh man, I might
go and pick up a Galaxy S25, whatever those models are, right?
I might actually pull forward that expense because who knows, right?
I might actually have a tariff on that.
I might not have a tariff on it.
So you could have consumer confidence and sentiment fall off a cliff, but people might
still be buying things because they don't know of the fear of the unknown.
And you also have this whole, the shelves are going to be empty
thing. And in some respects, like I said earlier, you will see some products having some impact here.
But I think you are also getting the fear mongers that are trying to make it seem like we're about
to go into the apocalypse and we're not going to have water and food on the shelves. And that's just not the case.
But you have people probably buying in the event of that, right?
Somebody just turned into a doomsday prepper over the last two weeks because they don't know what the hell is going on.
So, yes, it probably will have an impact over time, especially if these things settle in for a little bit, Sam.
But I don't think in the near term you're going to see a massive drop off in consumption trends in general, if you're looking at the notational value, just because
of the uncertainty and people trying to buy ahead of what's going to happen. We probably will get
another extension, but I think that's probably actually fueling a lot of these purchases.
I might be wrong though, but that's just my take on it i would love to hear
what monitors gotta say i mean i think there's been a couple earnings calls where companies have
said yeah like we're looking at the landscape right now we're able to hold inventory until xyz
and then we'll have to determine later but there's a lot of companies sitting on a lot of goods
unfinished goods uh and they probably didn't want to spend that money during the quarter.
And they did. So that's what I have.
Kevin, I had that real fast, Sam. I had that thought earlier. I was saying
these companies that did buy ahead of this, are they not trying to thread a very tough needle
here on both sides of this? Because if they do get exempted or whatever
you know find some type of relief have they not overbought and overspent is there a risk on that
side as well dude okay so there's a listener here i won't say his his name but solid guy
hits me up in the dns provides phenomenal information here i'll keep it high level i
won't get specific he went out he's got a couple of businesses,
right? Went out, purchased a boatload of stuff, right? Front loaded because of the tariffs,
right? $400,000, $500,000 worth of stuff. Working these deals out with these companies,
I won't name the company, but working these deals out, going back and forth, trying to get a deal
done, pulled forward, spending $400,000, $500,000. And then like a
week later, tariffs are passed. You know, like he could have used half a mil. You can use that
capital anywhere. If you're a small business, right, an actual small business, which really
fuels the economy here, half a million dollars, a lot of money. So that's just one example. I mean,
there's a bunch of examples. We probably have friends and family that have businesses that have pulled forward.
But that's just one example of the uncertainty of a pull forward.
I just bought five hundred thousand dollars worth of stuff from a company that I really
didn't want to do anything with.
Like, you know, he was a I'll still go through the inventory eventually,
but it's just not something you want to do.
And so a lot of companies are doing that right now.
So you're going to get a lot of false flags. And then let's go back and say, what does the Fed do?
Right? These people that come on, and I'm not trying to hate on anybody up here,
they've said this, but if you come up and you're like, oh yeah, Fed should cut immediately.
Even if you said that before this whole, if you were saying that in October last year, cool,
right? Just November, cool, right? Completely different landscape. This is a little different
one, right? How is the Fed, how is the Fed member going to analyze a lot of this data and be like,
okay, is this true consumption? Are consumers really still good? Or are we seeing a pull forward?
Are we going to see prices increase? Are we going to see a massive deflationary effect when, if, or when Trump says, okay, look, baseline 10% tariffs and everybody goes on their merry way.
Now you went from having shortages to gluts, right? How do you navigate that? And I think you're going to need to have the hard data first in order for the Fed to do something.
navigate that. And I think you're going to need to have the hard data first in order for the Fed
to do something. I think they're going to do as much as they possibly can to signal that they're
ready to act. But man, can you imagine cutting rates right now? And then President Trump says,
look, okay, we're all done. We're not going to charge anything. We're going to work through
these deals. We have some non-binding agreements. That's what we did the first time. And everything's
going to be on their merry way. And you've got lower rates.
And the Fed's not going to cut rates and then raise rates again.
I mean, that would be crazy.
Then you go from having a fear of economic contraction, which probably, well, we're seeing one right now, right?
But you have that fear to now, did you just light a firecracker in a crowded theater, right? Like that's, it makes it very difficult for them.
So I think they're going to have to hold off until they actually get something to crack. And
unfortunately, if you want rate cuts right now, you need labor to crack because I don't think
there's anybody that would be prudent from an economic analytical standpoint to make a call
on inflation right now, because we haven't seen this environment
before. And even if you go back to, you know, 30s and all, the economy is completely different.
So I feel like it's very difficult for them. So, and the consumption may not match,
you know, Sam, it's just going to be hard. No, I mean, I agree with you.
Like, it's much different because when you think about COVID, it was like a moving target, right?
But I would say that Jerome Powell did a good job.
The Fed did a good job during that time.
Otherwise, it would have been a nasty time during COVID.
But they had no choice.
They had to drop the rates that low, and they had to pump the economy with stimulus. And like you're saying in this one, I said this actually,
Wolf Financial, they have a weekly newsletter they release. And I wrote an article for them
that was sent out yesterday. And that's what I was saying was that when it comes to the Fed,
is that they're saying they're waiting for data to come in.
And like you're saying, they are waiting for the hard data to come in.
But that hard data is basically a result or a factor of how businesses react to whatever Trump is doing.
And that's not even a moving target.
Like, I don't even know if there is even a metaphor to describe what's happening there.
But there is only one person in the entire world that can literally put a stop to all the tariffs, right?
And the market is really thinking like, he's going to cave, he's going to cave, he's going
to cave, right? Because we did see that pivot. We did see that pivot in April 9,
less than 24 hours after he put on the blanket tariffs around the entire world.
He pushed, he delayed all of that by 90 days for every single country, except for China. And the market thinks he's going to cave with
China. He thinks that he's going to cave with it. And then there's going to be some sort of
stabilization and homeostasis as far as the tariffs goes. And we're going to go back to
green skies. That's what the market is pricing, what they have been pricing in. And it does appear
that's going to happen. And I don't think that it's going to get materially worse when it comes to the tariffs what i do think is gonna it might
get worse is if whatever we are in right now stays and there is no pivot then that might
continue the downtrend when it comes to the economy and also when it comes to the uh the
job market and if that continues its downtrend then there's going to be a certain point where it's going to be like Max Payne, where the bonds are going to continue rallying as far as the yields go.
The bonds itself are going to start depreciating or continue depreciating.
And it's going to get out of control where someone has to do something.
And whether that's going to be Trump pivoting or whether that's going to be the Fed, one of them is going to have to act.
Like it's a weird game of chicken. It's a three-way chicken. It's
three-way chicken between China, the Fed, and Trump. And I don't know. When I think about all
this stuff put together, it's so hard to go balls to the wall with the market as we have the last
two years doing that today. There's too much risk on the table right now
in order to perceive exactly what businesses do
because businesses don't even know what they're going to do.
Commerce Secretary Letnick was on Fox Business just a few moments ago
and made some interesting comments.
I almost called him Lugnut again. I'll try to refrain from that.
I don't see how a Trump-Carney meeting works out perfectly.
That was one of the main comments that's interesting.
Monitiv, I want to swing it over to you and see if you had a chance to look through any of these numbers,
anything that stuck out to you today or any other thoughts that you've had
as the conversations progressed here.
Well, not so much anything specific about the numbers.
I think everything has been talked about.
Fabrinet, one of the companies you didn't talk about today,
that's also down significantly.
Again, a small miss
I think there's not much in the numbers that that should cause eight nine percent sell-off
but they they are going to be impacted significantly by track tariff they have uh plants in uh in um
in Thailand and and China primarily so And they are a major contract manufacturer
for optical and laser-related gear.
So that goes into pretty much every electronic item today,
every computer item today.
So that's one that I just wanted to call out.
But going back to the tariff discussion, look, for most part, I have no argument with anything
that Kevin said.
I'm just not that hopeful.
We have messed with the supply chain again, right?
And we know from experience now that it takes a lot longer to recover than just waving a wand and saying, okay, let's bring it all back.
It just doesn't work like that.
A lot of factories have laid off people.
A lot of factories have shut down.
A lot of factories have, you know, changed their plans.
They have not, you know, their plans they have not you know ordered their inputs so you know and so on down the chain so it's piling up everywhere so there is going to be a period when we get some
final tariff numbers that we can all live with there's going to be a period of time when
production is going to lag significantly behind demand,
which is inflationary. Maybe not so much in food, but we do import a lot of food items,
right? So 270 billion or so last year. So it's not a small number but certainly in uh in consumer discretionary where we import almost
everything um i think you're going to see you're going to see you know a shortage at least for a
short period of time followed by a price increase and then a messed up uh um a messed up uh supply
chain that will have a more permanent jump in prices and,
and, and potentially, you know, change the equation there.
For most part, I have no problem with the rest of the stuff that was said here.
I think, you know, it's, it's going to play what it's,
it's going to play out however it is, but, but I will, I will again repeat,
right. I don't think the problem is going to go
away as soon as uh you know um as soon as uh this there is an agreement right if you just take an
example japan it was talked about as one of the first countries that we're going to do uh you know
do a deal with today there was news that there is going to be a reminder tariff you're not going to zero
tariff with japan now based on last trump administration's you know tariff war trade war
a lot of companies moved operations from from other countries to japan because there was a
trade deal with japan and uh you know as an example, Apple increased their number of suppliers in Japan
and they increased the content that they buy from Japan.
Now you're saying that's off the table.
So this is not going to help any business.
We are still in this problem of talking potential deals,
but underneath it all, we're unraveling everything. And there
is no deal that's going to fix that unless you just say, you know, there's no need for a deal,
we'll just cancel everything, right? So unless we get back to that point, no amount of deal
is going to completely solve this. And no deal even now, even immediately if it happens,
is going to completely protect us from what is coming at least for a short period of time.
So basically, if you don't start making deals quickly,
you're going to ring this out longer and the impact will be spread over the rest of the year, not a quarter.
You know what's funny? It's not funny.
But I don't know who pissed Trump off yesterday,
but he was popping off a lot. And his commentary around, we're looking at making deals, but
ultimately I set the deals and blah, blah, it's going to be on my terms. I found that to be very
interesting. It's like, what is it? it three steps forward, you know, two steps
back, like we're still incrementally maybe getting some opportunities here. But, you know, comments
like that just doesn't do you doesn't do you any good. And once again, it's a respect factor that
I think probably is going really unnoticed when it comes to a lot of these deals. So I'm with you.
Once again, I think it's, you know, you got another two, three weeks here of this posture, and then you will have an impact.
The reason why I don't think the food, like some food items will be impacted,
but I don't think it's going to be like COVID-esque on the food front is because people
have to eat, you know, so you'll be forced to pay those higher prices.
So I just don't feel, and whereas COVID-19,
it was all like, yeah, mask,
and certain people couldn't come out,
and you know, it was a whole big thing.
So I just don't think the food items,
yeah, we probably will see price increases,
but I don't think that you're gonna see
this massive, you know, bare shelves,
everybody's
eating vienna sausages and spam every day because there's nothing on the shelves i don't think it's
gonna be like that oh i like hold up i like vienna i like vienna sausages i just don't i don't like
spam i mean i'll eat spam you got fried that bad boy look kevin, Kevin, but you might not need PPE, but if you're going to tariff genetics, those prices go up.
People are going to have to cut back somewhere else, right?
There's a widespread population that has to have medication, and those medications eat up a lot of their disposable income, And they're just going to have to cut back elsewhere.
So the impact is far reaching.
I don't think people, you know, quite have taken, I mean, put their head around how wide this is going to be.
Everything that we touch in one way or the other, right?
Like if you have capacity issues, right?
Meaning, you know, if you just lower the level of activity
for a short period of time,
you're going to have a lot of companies
that are at the very edge of, you know, financial stability go under
and take that capacity out. You're going to have just lesser goods chasing
you know some level of you know flattened demand and if that is that is still an imbalance either
you're going to see prices go up or you're going to see you know oversupply and companies go down
right so so this mess is this mess is going to stay with us for a lot longer
than I think people are expecting right now.
I agree.
We might be getting an update on these pharmaceutical tariffs maybe.
He's signing executive orders right now.
He's reducing regulatory barriers to domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing,
directing the FDA to reduce the amount of time it takes to approve. He also directed the FDA to improve enforcement of active pharmaceutical
ingredient sources, source reporting by foreign drug producers. And he was saying they would even
publicly display a list of facilities that do not comply. Yeah, there was another one too. Maybe that's the same one. Hold on.
Reduce the amount of time. Increase fees for and inspections of foreign manufacturing plants.
That's actually a very big deal. So under the hood of our little spat with India
is this whole quality of manufacturing with pharmaceuticals and the conditions that they're
made. So that's an interesting one. If we are making a deal, that could also be a little bit
of a sticking point. And I'm curious to see how that's going to actually resolve itself. That's
been an issue going back and forth for decades. And that could be a big deal.
And if he's, that could be a big deal.
Yeah.
And today we opened up, we opened up services to another mess, right?
With going after Netflix, you know, we've not even seen the other side of this, right?
But just by putting services into the mix, we've created a bigger problem now.
bigger problem now is is that going to be extended by everybody else because that's an easy target
Is that going to be extended by everybody else?
Because that's an easy target.
last thing i just saw trump said he'll have an announcement next week related to the costs
of medicines as well we are coming in here to the top of the hour uh gab we're about to have
our stock pick show and a spoiler alert you may be the winner. Gav, are you around?
I saw you sneak in here.
He may not be here.
We'll make sure he's on that next space to collect his crown for Stock Pick of the Week.
But that does bring us to the top of the hour here.
Big shout out to all the speakers.
There he is.
Can you hear me out?
Okay, sorry.
Twitter just doesn't work on iOS anymore.
I don't know what's up with it. So I'm on desktop, but then I had to change my mic input.
Yeah.
Big winners. If you want more big winners.
So last week, did I win? Did I win him?
Did I take first place?
Yes.
Okay, cool.
So if you guys want more amazing stock picks,
I just sometimes be dropping them for free on these 5 p.m.
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Now, you got to do your own due diligence.
It's not financial advice, but it's worth tuning into and listening.
Last week, gave out Duolingo as our playwright, 29% on the week.
Sometimes, listen, as a person who has a 503-day streak on Duolingo,
you might know what I'm talking about there.
With that being said, I got more picks coming out tonight.
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Come tune in.
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Yeah, great stocks on Spaces show today.
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