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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Jan. 12, 2026 Duration: 2:01:09Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, market participants analyzed the implications of Powell's legal troubles, the rising prices of gold and silver, and the potential for growth driven by fiscal policies and technological advancements. The conversation also touched on the influence of political factors on market trends, particularly in the defense sector, as well as the ongoing resilience of the economy amidst regulatory scrutiny.
Full Transcription
Hello, hello.
Whoa, got muted on my computer.
Hope everybody is doing well.
I'll let people get into here nice and slowly.
We already got 23 people of you in here.
But I am excited for another week of Stocks on Spaces.
Welcome back.
Welcome back.
Sorry about last week.
The whole team, most of the team, was over at CES in person, Las Vegas.
I am not made for Las Vegas for a week, so I am excited to be back.
Back on the East Coast, back to getting into the groove of the market. I hope everyone had
a good week last week, good New Year's, all that stuff. This is a very interesting market. We had
quite the headline yesterday about Powell getting sued by the Department of Justice.
I would have told you markets would be lower, but that is not the case that is happening today. We
got markets are moving higher, not aggressive, not that, that crazy. My single stock portfolio
is up by 0.8% today, but even RSP is only down by 0.04%. That is the equal weight SPY across everything. So it has even some of those
bad stocks in there. SPY, which is a little over-indexed to those larger names, up 0.3%
today. Gold and Silver, obviously those are two names that are absolutely ripping.
Have been for a little bit. Continue that today. So it was a very interesting move in the market.
Like I said, I would have told you that you were moving lower based off of the headlines we got yesterday.
Market didn't react to it.
Gold and silver did do the move.
I thought it would.
But the rest of the market, not so much.
One more time.
I see we're getting a lot more people in here
from when I started speaking.
I appreciate you all for joining us back here
on Stocks on Spaces.
Last week, myself, Gov, Stock Talk,
Emp had some stuff to do as well,
but a lot of us were at CES in Las Vegas,
so the week kind of didn't happen.
I'm seeing some Roku news crossing,
but I didn't see what the news is,
just thought they got a headline.
But, yeah, okay, that wasn't it.
But we are back, back this week.
Stock Talk should be on here in a little bit.
We'll get some good talks in.
I appreciate everyone for coming in and hanging out with us. Mr. Brian Lund
How are you doing sir? I appreciate you being here right away
Sorry, I missed you guys out in Vegas. Yeah, I didn't get this the chance at the at all. Unfortunately, unfortunate was a
It was quite the the busy couple days though. Like I said, I am not made for for Vegas
Not made for that type of thing for the week.
I was so tired.
Even just the West Coast gets me.
But I enjoyed it.
I got to see some cool stuff.
I was very interested by everything I got to see at NVIDIA.
The main conference center had a lot of really cool tech that should be coming or should be here or whatever.
A lot of robots and cool cars and stuff like that.
I got some good photos, which I can use for content in the future. It was definitely a draining couple days
though. So I'm curious if you had any thoughts of CES, if there's anything that stood out to you,
but just in general, how this market is treating you today, sir?
Yeah. So real quick, CES, I went out there because some of my friends were attending.
quick CS. I went out there because some of my friends were attending. My sister lives out in
Henderson. So I thought, I'll go to CS. I'll see some people. And it's funny. So I spent the first
two days mountain hiking in the mountains outside of Vegas. About 45 minutes outside of Vegas is a
place called Mount Charleston. And snow, pine trees, had a great time up there.
And every time I came back into the city and was in my hotel, I would just hear these conversations
in the elevators and in the lobbies and all these CES tech nerds were just talking about, you know,
who's going to man the booth today? And I just said to myself, you know what, I have no interest
in going to CES. So I ripped up my credentials and threw them away and went out to the mountains one more day.
So that was my experience in Vegas.
In terms of this market, this is a tough market for what I call the catalyst hunters.
And these are people that are always saying, I don't know what the catalyst will be.
What will the catalyst be for this to happen or the market to break out to new highs or the pullback
to end or whatever? And last week, I put out a post to my subscribers just kind of emphasizing
something I've thought for a long time is that you'll never know what the catalyst is. I mean,
there's some situations where like,
okay, NVIDIA is going to have earnings, maybe that.
But most of the time on a macro sense,
you don't know what the catalyst is going to be.
Now today I'm updating that headline for my daily update
to not just you don't know what the catalyst will be,
but you don't know what the catalyst will do.
Because so many people last night, Sunday night,
this morning before the open, so many bears were just crowing. Oh, this is it. They're going after
the Fed. The futures were down and they were sure that this was the big crash they'd been waiting
for. And then they got their faces ripped off
about 15 minutes into the market day.
So not only is trying to figure out
what the catalyst will be,
not only is that folly,
but even if you can figure out
what that catalyst would be,
you still don't know how the market will react to it.
So I just think it's a waste of time to do that.
I think the other thing that today reemphasizes is a theme that I've been noodling on for about a year now. I feel like our society with information that, you know, objective truth
that conflicted with your opinion, you'd go, well, all right, maybe I was wrong. Nowadays,
nobody does that anymore because everyone can find their own truth, right? I also believe
we are in a post data world when it comes to the markets. I think we've seen this time and time
again, like Bureau of Labor Statistics. Oh,
we're not going to be putting out numbers this week because whatever. And you would think in a
different day and time, the market would have imploded. Markets like, yeah, okay. Doesn't really
matter. You know, you've got companies like Oklo that have no earnings, no chance at earnings,
no product, and people don't care. They bid the stock up. And today's
another example is, oh, the Fed, the Fed is being attacked by the White House.
Any semblance of nonpartisanship between the two is gone. This can't be good for the structure of
the United States, for the Fed, for our economic system. Nobody cares because they're bidding
everything up. So I think this is just a nut. I think what kind of is happening today is the market is telling you they don't believe anything is going to come from this.
Again, it doesn't really matter what – that's an interpretation.
I don't know if that's an interpretation, but I'm pretty sure that like 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago, if the White House had ever directly attacked the Fed, it would have been a massive
thing. And that's the whole point. The market's telling you they don't-
This would have happened between 2016 to 2020. I bet you we would have had a similar type of action.
Yeah. And the market's telling you they don't think anything's going to happen from that
because they don't care about the data anymore. They don't care. It's just,
StockTalk has talked about this before. This is is just these are liquidity plays in the market now just where's the liquidity going here
there the next week the next month the the whole upshot of this is this is why i think technical
analysis is a must for most people unless you are someone like stock talk who can go super deep on
thematic research i think the only real way that you can have a
system that can be consistently profitable and more importantly, that can manage your risk and
your downside is technical analysis because technical analysis just cares about price and
volume. It tunes out, or at least tries to tune out all the data, all the news, all the truth.
And I just think that's the sort of world that we're in
where PE ratios and value investing and great products is –
I'm not going to say it doesn't have any impact,
but I think it has way less impact than it had for most of the history of the stock market.
Let's do a little sandwich. I feel like Mike might have a similar take. We'll see. I want to hear it. Logical. I feel like mike might have a similar take we'll see i want
to hear it logical i feel like might have a different one you have any thoughts on that
logical uh on what specifically because uh you know brian talked about a lot of things
um market not caring about data and information at this point.
Yeah, I mean, I think the market is extremely bullish. There's really no other way to chop it up.
Like you go look at the weekly charts.
I always do like on Fridays afternoons when the market closes, I do a weekly chart review.
And, you know, just looking at, you know, spy, gorgeous, are, you know, RSP IWM.
That's like the breath in the market, not just the Mag7.
Those were even stronger.
Qs were lagging a bit.
But if you looked at it, it just looked like an ascending triangle with higher lows.
XBI, my favorite, has been an absolute dog to start the year, to be very honest.
But that's okay.
It was up 36%
in 2025. I think it's fair that it is taking a bit of a breather and consolidating. But these are
the types of things we're talking about. We're talking about right now where you're feeling a
little bit more like, oh, I don't know. In reality, most of those things are probably just consolidating
after having massive moves.
And that's just generally what you want to see in a healthy bull market.
Obviously, September, October were huge up months.
And then what did you have till Q4?
I mean, some people blew up their accounts in Q4 because they continued to remain long.
These things that were already up 10x in four months
uh you know i think that's how you learn by being a market participant and just realizing when
something goes a little too far too fast that's probably a good time to maybe ring the register
reduce your size take some trims there's nothing wrong with taking trims. Everybody thinks that like,
no, I'm going to hold this to be a hundred bagger. You know, I hope so. But if you see a 10 bagger
in like a four month timeframe, and you're not taking any profits on that, I just feel that's
pretty silly. And, you know, that's just called risk management. Besides that, yeah, I mean,
Yeah, I mean, you know, the Fed, all that noise, it's completely noise.
You know, J-PAL, great, great Fed chair.
I think we were so blessed and fortunate to have him.
I don't think anyone can sit there and say, you know, he was a bad Fed chair.
He was a very good Fed chair, very reasonable, responsible.
Was he, you know, behind a little bit come, you know, in 2021 and 22 to hike rates for inflation. Okay,
like, dude, you go take that high pressure job and everyone's tweeting at you. And, you know,
so it's a it's a tough job. And, you know, damned if you do damned if you don't. So I think the
latest thing is just a stunt. I don't really see a point of this stunt. It does feel political.
Yeah, we're people concerned, maybe our bond
market should be worth a little less just because, you know, there's maybe a potential
lack of independence. But, you know, equities are going to continue to keep roaring. And
a lot of the latest policies have been pointing towards reflation. So if anything, it makes sense that, you know,
J-POW and the Fed chair has been smart and vocal in terms of not wanting to cut rates because
all the fiscal policies point to be heating the economy. And you don't want to see inflation
tick back up, especially when you've been kind of stuck at this range where you want to get it down
to two. But in reality, you're going to have to swallow the pill of reality,
which is, you know, we're probably going to be sitting at 3% in a better case scenario.
So it's all dramatic theater.
I think it's really tough to get bearish when you can tell
that Trump is doing everything in his power
to keep the midterm election year.
He wants to regain the populist vote.
And so he's going to do all sorts of things that you're already hearing about.
I mean, the credit card thing, I don't think it's ever going to go into play.
But I made a post about that.
If you're bearish, you're literally dumb.
People were coming out of Woodward telling me,
oh, well, the credit card rate, banks can't survive.
It's like, dude, I don't even think that's going to go into effect.
I'm almost certain of it, or at least not in just that way that he just said it at surface level.
Congress would have to vote to do it,
and there's no way they're getting
two-thirds majority of whatever they need.
My point is, one, it's not even going to go into
effect. The point I make about these
things is, do you hear this guy?
He is just willing to do anything
to get...
I think we're forgetting that
a week ago, he basically is going to use
Freddie and Fannie funds to
buy mortgage bonds and
help you know compress the spread uh on on mortgage rates so uh between the treasury so it's like
you don't know like are you know how bearish are we going to be when this guy knows exactly what
he needs to do his approval rating is in the gutter it's just really tough to be bearish here
especially when the thing that has kind of led this economy,
which is AI CapEx spend,
has actually continued to remain resilient.
And so, you know, what did you get that revised GDP number
of potentially a five handle?
I mean, like over 5% growth.
And then you're telling me the consumer is potentially softening.
Sure, sure.
But, you know, Trump with fiscal policy is willing to support the consumer.
So it's like, okay, so the weak part,
so there's a strong part of the economy.
It continues to hum along.
That's what's been driving this market.
And then you have the weak part of the economy,
which is potentially the lower end consumer.
And Trump is basically on a mission to support them in any way,
shape as they can.
And you have to remember also in a couple of months,
we're going to get a fairly,
like probably one of the biggest tax refunds
in American history, I would imagine,
just because of the big, beautiful bill
is actually retroactive to January 20th of 2025.
And all those tips or overtime
that they can't be taxed on,
all that is going to come back as a form of refund.
And I don't think people are, you know, probably even realize,
you know, they're going to have a couple thousand,
few thousand probably back in their pockets to be spenders.
So I would see a pretty big tax refund season.
Look, these are silly things.
I don't even care.
But my point is, like, that can't drive your investment thesis.
It's just like, just point to me what the bear case is right now. And I just don't even care. But my point is, that can't drive your investment thesis. It's just like,
just point to me what the bear case is right now. And I just don't see it. I would say, probably,
I think if StockDoc was here, he would say the burden of proof is on the bears at this point,
I would agree with that statement. So I remain long, I'm probably 110% longer. So the bios have
been lagging a bit, which is, which is annoying. And they've been super
volatile. And that's a little frustrating for my portfolio. But still having a hell of a year. I'm
fairly nicely diversified. I've been pretty long China. So today is an absolutely stellar day on
that front. I think I mentioned it on Spaces here. but like a couple of weeks ago, there was like FXI calls, which is large cap China ETF, $41 million worth for the May 40s.
I mean, those things are up like 65% already in two weeks.
And that's a large cap ETF.
Anytime I see flow in something unusual that's like, you know, in a nice pullback makes sense. And it's above $10 million,
I start paying attention. So here's what I'll say. FXI calls came in for 40 million, those are up a
lot. And then a week later, the K web calls came in. K webs of 5% today on, you know, 2x volume.
And yeah, so and then obviously, you have Alibaba that's up like 10%.
Actually, on Friday, I saw Alibaba March calls,
the 170s for, I forgot how much I paid for them,
but it was like $8 million worth of out of the money calls
on Alibaba two months out.
I've tailed that flow as well,
because China just felt like,
okay, this is like a good time for China.
I feel dumb because this morning
I sold those calls at like a 60, 70% profit.
And if I held them,
they'd probably be up closer to 150% right now.
I have an issue with that of like selling
some of these like options related positions too soon
because when I see 60% in a day,
I'm just kind of like, okay, well, I mean,
I just made good money. I should probably take that. But yeah, I mean, I probably, you know, I think as a trader,
you have to be very critical and honest with yourself and say, okay, well, you know, review
your trades and what did you do right? What did you do wrong? And I think some of the things that
I've done wrong is I've been right on the trade and then I cut myself short sometimes.
And so that's tough.
But I'd rather as long as I'm constantly booking wins, you don't go broke taking a profit.
So I'm not too upset about that.
Yeah, so China very strong today.
I still hold the FXI calls, the K-Web calls.
I did trim a little bit of those just because they're getting like oversized.
And I mean, some of these small
cap tech companies are continuing to do really well. Like Schmidt Group, SHMD is up. It's
been going straight vertical today. It's down a little bit, not a big deal. The Synaptics,
S-Y-N-A is an IoT player. They have a Google partnership. I mean, you're talking about
two, $3 billion companies with an IoT segment that's growing
70% year over year trading at like 15 PE.
That's S-Y-N-A.
There's so many names, ACMR, which kind of has a China component to it too.
But dude, there's just so many of these kind of small cap semi names that are just running
a lot.
And so I'm happy
I'm diversified. I got the China, I got the bios, which aren't doing as well. I got the small cap
tech, which is crushing. And then talking about flow, I do follow flow. If it's over 10 million,
I definitely start paying attention. So another one I saw, I think it was Friday, Netflix,
I think it was Friday, Netflix, they bought the 110, 130 call spreads for August for like $19 million.
So anytime again, I see something like that, I'm typically in the trade.
I don't care.
And that's been working pretty well.
Like I told you with the China stuff, all those flows that I followed worked out pretty well.
I don't know.
There's a lot, man.
I mean, who's not having a good year at this point?
I mean, S&P is just kind of humming along to the upside.
We kind of knew it with the 5% correction in November.
Yes, there was a little bit of chop after that.
There were times when we lost a 50-day.
But whenever you were able to reclaim
the 50-day so quickly, you got to kind of be able to say, okay, I mean, this is a pretty
resilient market that every time it tries to lose it, it just picks back up again.
Yeah, I mean, there's so many things to like. Obviously, like I said, RSP, IWM are clear
out performers. So that means that there's a lot of opportunity out there as a stock picker.
Yeah, that's all.
Let's keep this first part going.
Mr. Options Mike, how are you doing, sir?
Hey, Evan, welcome back, bud.
Thank you for having me back.
It must be a little weird for you going third and not first.
You know, I can get used to it.
It's okay.
I'm not going to withdraw.
How are you doing, sir? What's standing up for you?
I feel like you might have came into this market thinking we were going to –
after the headlines yesterday, I thought we were going to be moving lower.
And I do want to dig in a little deeper onto all the Powell stuff.
But generally, how are you approaching the market today? What's standing up?
I mean, I came in and said, let's see how we react.
And the first five-minute candle in the market was straight up. i'm like all right looks like we're gonna be bullish right and
everything started coming running back and you know that was we talked about a pre-market my
group i said you know you know should we sell off yeah we should did we know the market's saying it
doesn't care um you know something to keep in mind here that this administration does not have a good track track record when it comes to getting grand juries to um to basically take you know actually go anywhere with their with
these investigations right we've seen this over and over and that could be one of the reasons why
the market's just shrugging this off and um you know i i don't think there's all that much to say
that the market said it doesn't care so we don't't care. And here's your spy at an all time high.
The IWM and the Dow missed it by pennies.
SMHs went to the all time high.
I mean, everything came running back.
The banks are still down.
You know, I think, you know, tomorrow really starts the things in earning and what's really going to drive this week.
Tomorrow, J.P. Morgan and Delta report before the open.
We have inflation data of CPI tomorrow.
Wednesday morning, we have PPI.
And then at 10 o'clock, we get the tariff decision.
And, you know, we're about to find out how the Supreme Court is going to handle that
and what the market reaction will be and where we go from there.
And, you know, so the mantra of what's going to drive this market is changing.
There's a lot of juice in this market.
SPI is high, but hasn't gone anywhere.
And, you know, when you look at the structure here, yeah, we're at all-time highs,
but if you really look at the overall pattern, we're still stuck in the same pattern we've been in for the last couple of months.
You know, we grind up a little bit, then we sell back off,
and we don't really break out by, you know, very tiny little bit and then come right back in.
So we haven't gotten that move yet that gave us any kind of momentum to the upside.
For me today, I was a little bit more cautious just based on what was going on.
I caught a quick little trade on Palantir.
It wasn't a great one, but made some money off of that nice upgrade this morning.
I then focused on Tesla when I saw it taking off and clearing the opening candle there.
And I grabbed that and had a very nice trade there.
And I'm seeing a couple of Oracle calls that's back into the gap,
at earnings gap, and it looks a lot better here.
It's just you look around, there's not much to worry about.
We talked about the whole 10% cap on interest rates.
He can't do that.
Congress would have to do it.
So just go out there and say this has to, you know, it's just him saying things, and he's trying to put pressure.
I kind of read it as, I'm going to put pressure on Congress to do my bidding because if you don't do this, people are going to be upset that you didn't do this because you're perceived you're hurting them.
Whether you're helping them or not remains to be seen because everything's part of a pie, right?
If you're taking away profits from the banks they're going to lend less money and they're
going to think so everything kind of works together so i don't i don't know how that's
going to play out and honestly i'm not overly worried about it but you know for me it was like
sofi and affirm were so strong pre-market they both dumped and went red it tells you that the
market didn't think this was going to hold up either or go anywhere uh what else you know um yeah
you know google knew all-time highs hood had a nice bounce today nvidia breaking above 185 and
trying to hold it here into the close apple trying to wake up a little bit you know the market's
trying to wake up it's just a matter of can we get some sustained momentum in some of these names
so i look forward to tomorrow morning we get get earnings, get CPI, and then hopefully we'll start getting some more
positive catalysts for this market to try to get it to break out of this range
and then move itself.
Yeah, we are back in earnings season starting tomorrow.
JP Morgan, Delta, et cetera.
Then we got a lot of banks a couple weeks away from the MAG7.
We're going to have Jerome Powell speaking the last week of January. morgan delta etc then we got a lot of banks a couple weeks away from the mag 7 that we're
gonna have jerome powell speaking the last week of january we're gonna have multiple mag 7 names
reporting earnings that last week of january so not next week the week after that we will be
getting a lot of information should be a very very interesting uh couple days coming up there was a
lot of uh trump posts trump truths whatever we want to call them, on Friday-ish, Saturday-ish,
maybe Thursday, I don't know exactly, last week. One of them was around what we were talking about
there, about credit cards being capped at 10%. It would be interesting to see what the ramifications
would be. I've heard people talk about how it would be harder for certain groups of people to
get credit. I've heard that in certain other groups, the rewards that you get from it would have to
be drastically lowered. It seems like 10% cap would cost the people who are using credit cards
quote unquote correctly for the rewards, their rewards would be less. But it does seem like
the people who need credit and are paying that 10, 20, well, not 10, 20, we're paying that 30% interest rates,
it would probably help them. You know, I'm not someone, I did not expect myself to get to the
point where I was actually kind of like, you know, maybe the 10% thing isn't the worst idea.
Maybe it needs time to be implemented and can't be a shock overnight. But it does, I think,
the benefits might outweigh the consequences? Unless these companies just shut down their
access to credit. But it's not going to happen. It would clearly be quite the shock to the system
for these credit card names. And you know, the visas and the MasterCards would adapt and probably
be fine. But a lot of these newer fintechs would be interesting to see what that reaction would be.
But I think it's a moot point, shall I say, because it's not going to be coming up.
There was another talk about raising the defense budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, which saw a lot of the defense names rip on Friday.
It was interesting because earlier in that same day, there was a post saying that these defense names would not allow to be doing share buybacks, dividends. There was stuff around executive compensation that might have to
be lowered. So that was quite the interesting couple headlines there. And I might even be
missing one. There was maybe stuff around Venezuelan oil as well. So we got quite the
headlines in different directions over this last weekend. And then obviously this Jerome Powell
headline. What's your guys' take on the Jerome Powell DOJ aspect of it all? And I'd be curious,
Mike, if I could start with you, the market's reaction to it. Are you surprised that the
market is up today? I know you said you kind of wait for the first candle, let it go in, but
from a non-trader, from just a market commentator perspective, are you surprised with the market's reaction today?
I was a little bit.
I mean, I thought, you know, this was if they're looking for a reason to pull the market back.
They certainly had it this morning and last night with that.
But the market just seemed to take it right in stride.
And, you know, the futures just sat there.
And then as soon as the market opened, they took it back. So, you know, I thought Powell's response, his video was very well done on his part.
And, you know, we'll see how this plays out.
I don't you know, we don't know enough to know what's really going on here.
I do think it's, you know, Trump wants interest rates not just down much lower and he wants it now.
So if he can getell out and put in another
one of his people in he'll have three of the seven votes required you know three of seven he just
needs one more to get his way and i think that's all he's trying to do if he can get anybody caught
up in this he's trying to get rid of lisa cook right he wants to put his people in the power to
do we'll to do what he wants to do and so why is he going to push the buttons here and see what happens?
Because what's going to happen?
I mean, it doesn't really seem to fall on him.
So I guess, you know, might as well go for it, I guess,
see what happens and see how this plays out.
I mean, it's not going to be quick.
I mean, that's for sure.
Things like this do not go quickly.
It felt very interesting timing.
It felt like something we were a little bit past.
It also feels like, as you were saying there, the timing of the speed that this would take to go about doesn't really make sense in stopping Jerome Powell from whatever he's going to do.
Because my assumption, and we know what happens when we assume, my assumption is that before any resolution could be even close to being had, Jerome Powell's turn will be done.
any resolution could be even close to being had,
Jerome Powell's term will be done.
Here you go. You've got
January 19th, February 16th,
April 3rd, and I believe May 25th is
his last meeting. You've got four meetings left.
To your point,
unless you
can force him to resign, this is going to
play out. This is not going to go on.
One thing I did think was interesting is
even when he is done with
being Fed Chairman, he still doesn't have a term as Fed Governor for a couple time period.
And he would still be a voting member on the FOMC.
So maybe that's what this angle is and just another board seat that he could kind of fill up.
But I did think it was a little interesting.
Yeah, we'll see.
I mean, I think if the market's not worried, we don't worry.
That is fair.
What about you, Brian?
Is this kind of going into the point you were saying of market's just going to wipe off the stuff?
Were you kind of surprised by the market reaction this morning or today?
Uh, nothing surprises me. Uh, so, so one of the things that helped me, uh, be profitable last
Nothing surprises me.
year is trying to suspend what I think should or shouldn't have happened, like try not to put a
judgment on it. But if you had to ask me gun to my head, what would have happened last night with
that news? Normally I would have thought that it would have knocked the market down. And I will say that that spike in the futures, that spike up, I actually commented in our trading room.
I said, wow.
So I guess it did take me a little bit by surprise.
I find it interesting that gold and silver have been able to hold on to their gains as well.
We got gold up, silver up, stocks up, crypto still down somehow.
Somehow crypto is the loser still in this.
Yeah, so I, you know, look, I haven't been paying attention really to the fundamental story of silver because I don't try to, you know, get, I try to keep fundamentals out.
What is the fundamental story on silver? I mean, I mean,
silver I know is one of the few really industrial precious metals.
So the thing about silver is silver is not like a stock, right?
Like it's a physical commodity.
So there really needs to be some sort of real demand above just speculation.
So I don't know what the fundamental story is on Silver.
Anyone want to tell me?
Michael Burry bearish on Shift 4 is what I'm seeing.
Sorry for the little squirrel moment there.
Yeah, I was going to say a little ADD.
Yeah, another one.
Meta to cut 10% of its Reality Labs business staff.
Well, we knew they were going to cut CapEx there,
so that's not a thing.
But wait, that's so weird because he just...
Sorry, Brian, didn't mean to cut you off,
but it was long Shift 4,
and people were using that as a bull case for Shift 4.
So I don't think he is shorted.
I think it is negative comments on it is more.
I no longer like Shift 4 stock.
Shift 4 has a history of shady transactions.
Interesting. So interesting. longer like shift four stock shift four has a history of shady transactions interesting so interesting i apologize for uh cutting you off mr brian lunds can you restate that last part my
swirl moment i really don't even remember what you said but i was interested yeah i was just
wondering if anyone could tell me what the uh fundamental case is for silver why it's ripping
so much so long my assumption i mean and i don't know is if it would
have to be something around data centers right so some some industrial need like a real world need
not a theoretical need i know with copper specifically jensen i was he showed off the
the new vera rubin system and when he kind of switched it to the back he was talking about
how there's i don't remember the exact number. It was like 500 feet, 5,000 feet, big difference.
I don't know which one it was. A lot of copper, a lot of copper was being used in that one.
So yeah, that would be my guess is the only thing that'd be strong enough to do,
it would be a data center theme. Got it.
But I didn't give you anything you didn't already know there no i mean i really i
mean again i know silver's in look i think silver is in is in microchips i mean i know it's an
industrial metal right gold moves based upon jewelry and things like that there's not really
an application for gold so i knew there was a real world
component, but I just for a move this massive in this
this continuous in this parabolic I figured there would be a lot more
Obvious story that's been going around about silver and why it's going through the roof, but maybe not
I got a comment solid state Sam battery using silver and then I looked up a little bit into my AI.
Silver is used throughout data centers mainly because it is the most conductive metal,
so it improves electrical efficiency, signal quality, and heat management in critical hardware.
Right.
So you're right.
So it's a hyper-industrial use focused on energy generation data centers for AI.
That probably was the first 20, 30, 40, 50% of the move.
Now we're just speculating, having a good time.
Probably.
We'll see.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I mean, that's a real commodity.
It's hard to move.
I don't know.
Look, if silver doesn't implode, what it's telling us, if that is the case, right, it's telling us that despite all the naysayers and whatever, that this AI, that we're just at the beginning of this thing.
Like this could be a thing that just goes on for five years, ten years.
on for five years,
10 years.
I know the memory
chip names, the microns
of the world, Sandisk. Guys,
Sandisk is a 50% year-to-date. It's January
12th.
When you become the bottleneck
for the AI build-out, for the data center
build-out, the market's going to
shoot up your stock pretty quickly.
Maybe that's happening with silver a little bit there.
I wonder if the transition
I wonder if we start hearing more about the transition
to optical, right? Companies like Poet
if that's going to be a real thing
that was the comment I was getting
when I was kind of talking about the Jensen
Honk, them showing off the Vera Rubin
and the back end being so much
copper, the fact of that
he was saying, someone told me in 5 to 10 years
this is all going to be fiber optic which which maybe it is. I have no idea.
All right. Uh, logical original question here. Original prompt was around the, uh, the Powell
headlines yesterday of him being sued by the deal or potentially, sorry, there was a subpoena for
information that he would go in front of a grand jury.
He was not being sued yet.
There was a threat of a lawsuit.
I would have thought the market would have moved lower off of that.
If you would have told me that in a vacuum, I would have thought we were moving lower.
I was a little surprised when we didn't.
Were you surprised on the market move today?
Were you kind of maybe expecting to come into the day to happen to make certain moves?
No, I mean, I don't think so.
I mean, again, like what is interesting is that I think the 10-year rate is up.
I think that's probably the thing that really would be affected, like our bond market.
And yeah, if you look at it, it actually spiked now towards the end of the day on TNX.
So I think it's not good for bonds, but I don't think equities care at all.
I mean, he's basically like a, you know,
a sitting duck president of the Fed right now. You know, people are expecting that he's not
going to cut in his next three meetings. So, you know, I don't know what the purpose of this is.
Maybe it's to, I mean, the claims are ridiculous. And even J-PAL yesterday in his response said,
you know, this feels political, which it probably is. So I think that maybe they just want him out of the Fed entirely. So that
way it's like, not only do you get the Fed chair you want, but you also get rid of like J-Pow at
the Fed, because he would still retain his board seat even after he's not the chair anymore. So
I don't know, that could be something but I don't think anyone cares. I think that, you know, it's like, in 24, when everyone was talking about like
inflation, and it's like, dude, inflation was like a 2022 story. And then like everyone, you know,
then moves their narrative to like interest rates. And then it's like, okay, but like interest rates
are kind of like a old story, you know, like, once we start cutting rates, now we're in a rate
cutting cycle. So it's like, people look forward, markets look forward. Once
you are already in a certain like regime, then, you know, you don't start, you've already priced
in that regime. You're not like, so if people are already looking past his, you know, chair tenure,
then I don't think it's going to impact much.
This would probably be more impactful a year or two ago, but
he's on his way out, so
I don't think it's a big deal for a market's
perspective in terms of what actually happens to him.
I don't think anything will actually come from this.
We're kind of at the point now
with Powell, you're saying it there, that he's pretty much done
with the moves that he's going to come in and do.
I mean, we'll talk.
The real answer to this will be known in three, five, six years, whatever it is.
But what are you thinking Jerome Powell's legacy is going to be at the Fed?
Do you think it's going to be remembered as a good Fed chair?
I think the people who traded through it are going to think he's a great Fed chair.
But I think that everyone else is going to be like, you know, think about it. Trump is, you know, very vocal and he's been, you know, he blames
everyone else for his issues. So if, you know, we had inflation and it was crippling, then,
you know, it's easy for people to just blame the Fed chair at the time for not raising rates in
time. So I think, you know, there is going to be a cohort of people who just call him like the too late Fed. And, you know, I think even maybe they'll call him too late on the
hiking side. And then they'll call him too late on the cutting side to now, because you
saw unemployment take up from 4% to 4.5% over a few months span. But I think generally,
he handled it pretty gracefully throughout. And I don't know, I think we, if you think about like the actual outcomes of the economy,
I mean, nothing fell apart.
We basically avoided a recession throughout the whole thing.
We might have had excessive inflation for like a few months or a year or so.
But, you know, mostly it normalized.
And yeah, I mean, 3% is above where you want to be.
But if you actually look through history, like in the more recent times, like, I don't know, being around 3% or, you know, whatever it is, it's not that horrendous.
And you have to think about how much of that inflation was actually caused by fiscal stimulus and not the Fed policy, most of it.
Inflation was actually caused by fiscal stimulus and not the Fed policy, most of it, because
supply chains were down and there was a supply shock.
And then you had all this money slushing around with them to supply.
So I don't think you can really blame this guy for all of our woes.
So I think he did a pretty good job.
But I don't know.
People are going to say what they're going to say.
I think online, at least within our ecosystem of
just people who buy, sell stocks, trade stocks, I think he does have a pretty good reputation.
I don't think everyone necessarily goes and agrees with everything that he does. I mean,
no one agrees with everything. Trust me, I watch all your opinions. But I think they kind of,
you know, I don't want the Fed chair to come in and really decide the market. I want the Fed chair
to be that backstop, which, you know which for better or worse, I think that that's
kind of what ended up trying to happen.
And I know a lot of people do disagree with the kind of decisions and stuff that he's
made.
But I think that kind of him as a Fed chair, I think will be remembered pretty well.
I do want to shift the conversation a little bit back towards some stocks.
I know that's what we more care and enjoy talking about. Hamid joining us up here. Mr. Hamid. I do want to shift the conversation a little bit back towards some stocks.
I know that's what we more care and enjoy talking about.
Hamid, joining us up here, Mr. Hamid.
If you do have any takes on Powell, all this stuff going on, feel free to share them.
But I did see your post talking about Meta.
Hamid, increasing your position in Meta stock.
I'd love to talk through that a little bit.
So how are you doing, sir?
Yeah, I'm good.
Thanks, Evan. I don't really worry about
what Powell says or the macro in general. I'm reminded of Warren Buffett's conversation about
these issues. He's been asked in various different interviews, you know, what does he think about the
interest rate or the macro economy or whatever? And he says, basically, like, I can't predict
that stuff. And therefore, I don't worry about it. And if Warren Buffett is not smart enough to worry about the macro
with investing hundreds of billions of dollars, then who the fuck am I to be worried about the
macro? So I just don't ever take that into consideration on my investments. What I want
is the same thing that Warren wants, which is to buy great companies at good prices.
And that's the reason I just added more microns today.
I was just doing the basic math on it.
And it's like, holy macron, bro.
This company, if it continues to have a PE of 30, which seems very reasonable and low, like NVIDIA has a PE of 45, close to 50 sometimes.
If it has a PE of 30 in a year, it's expected to have $32 of profits per share based on their
expected revenue and profit run rate of this quarter. So this is something that is very close in terms of their expectations.
It's not some pie in the sky
way down the line future.
And their entire 2026 inventory
or capacity of creating supply
is already sold out.
So if you give that supply
being sold out a PE of 30,
then you come up with a price of 900 and some change,
$970 or something like that per share for Micron.
And this is like basic math.
And I'm a little skeptical even myself.
But I'm like, OK, if my own calculation based on very conservative estimates is that this might be a 900 or a
thousand dollar stock in a year. It just, I'm going to kick myself if I don't buy more of it.
And so I had bought some in the past couple of weeks. I had put six, 6% of my portfolio into it.
And since then it had already gained like something like 15 16 percent uh and i just
decided to add another um uh increase my position uh a little bit today so um yeah i mean i added
more micron i added more meta as well can i actually ask you on the micron thing before
we move on to meta i think this is a very difficult thing for myself and i'm sure for a lot of other
people is adding when i'm up on a position,
you know,
sometimes I'll buy a stock.
I think it's going to X.
We're at X.
I think it's going to Y.
damn.
Okay.
Let me rephrase this.
We're at X.
I think it's going to two X and we're at 1.1 X and it struggles for me to buy,
but that 90% upside or whatever it is,
I still feel like is there.
I'd like to hear your thoughts around that psychology of kind of going in and
buying it and stuff.
And yeah, what kind of,
because it's a difficult thing for myself.
Yeah, so generally speaking,
I try to buy slow as opposed to buying it all at once.
Historically, when I buy a stock,
it's because it's undervalued
and the market has been soured on a particular stock when I'm starting to buy it.
That's the reason why I think it's undervalued.
And the momentum of the stock tends to be in the negative direction, meaning it comes on my radar because I'm like, wait a second, this company is pretty solid.
It's great. like when Netflix was being oversold, when Bill Ackman sold it, for example,
I was like, okay, wait a second.
It now has a PE of 17.
This is a fast-growing company.
It's pretty solid.
I love their shows.
It's like my number one streaming service.
So when I start buying it, it's still going in a downward direction.
So I've kind of learned to buy slow because oftentimes it goes down even
further than I expect. In Micron's case, it's one of those things that it had upward momentum
already when it came on my radar. And it came on my radar not because I found it, but someone else
was like, hey, I just made a bunch of money from Micron this year, over 240%. And I was like, oh, well, that's cool.
You know, like my view was that,
okay, it's probably overvalued.
You might want to trim.
But I decided to look into it
before I gave that opinion to the family friend
who brought it to my attention.
And then when I looked into it, I was like,
wait a second, this company just grew over 40% this year, is expected to grow
over 70% next year. And then I started listening to their management calls and quarterly calls and
interviews with the CEO and CFO. And these guys are legit out there saying that their entire
2026 supply is sold out already. It's contractually sold out, meaning like they
cannot have more revenue than they already have sold. And therefore, they have 100% visibility
on what they're selling, what their revenues and profits are expected to be. So unless they're
lying for some reason, or some catastrophe happens where they can't deliver, they expect to have $18 billion of
revenue next quarter with $8 and some change per share of profits, EPS. So when you take $18 billion
and just simply take the 18 and multiply it by four, that's like roughly $72 billion.
Last 12 months revenue was $45 billion. So this is an incredible growth
rate. And then when you take their profits to $8 per share, multiply it by four, you get $32
per share. So you're talking about a stock that if it got a PE of 30, this is just basic math,
30 times $32 a share is $960. So just from that perspective, I'm like, okay, well, wait a second.
If these guys are, you know, going to be doing that much in revenue and profits over the course
of the next year, and they're completely sold out, and they're, by the way, they're also investing
heavily to expand their capabilities for 2027 and 2028 based on their visibility, then who am I to say
that memory is cyclical and they're about to run out of steam? You know, like these guys are
investing $20 billion to make more fabs and capabilities that are going to come online in
2027 and 2028. And I'm going to take some random Joe Schmoe's opinion on the internet who says memory is cyclical as the reason not to buy it.
That just seems kind of dumb.
So, you know, that's why I went into it.
And honestly, like you, I'm uncomfortable buying something that already, like, makes a pretty significant move.
But in Micron's case, this is not significant.
It just went up 15%, yes, in a short period of time.
But relative to where I think it might be in a year, it's not significant.
So that's the perspective I have on it.
And that's why I added more.
I appreciate the take there.
I appreciate the take.
All right.
Meta, tell me more.
They had some interesting news today.
Meta had a story.
Positive.
I'm sorry.
Look at the comments.
Micron positive blog report.
Price target to over $500.
I did see that.
I saw you tweet it.
I just didn't really know who Lynx Global was.
So kind of left that one out there.
But over to Meta.
Meta had a couple interesting stories today.
They had one about a new kind of division that they're having talking about compute maybe they kind of
view where amazon and a couple other companies are going there's also this headline within the last
20 30 minutes or so from the new york times that meta is planning to reduce the size of its reality
labs segment the workforce there by 10 so that was a little bit of an interesting headline but tell tell me more about Meta and why you're liking it here. And maybe why you think the market has
kind of left this name behind a little bit. I don't know if that's the correct statement,
but we have SPY, all-time high, say we have QQQ, not too far off. And Meta obviously still has a
little bit of work to do to get that back to that point. So tell me what you think the market is seeing here and what you're seeing differently.
Yeah, so this is a great question on Meta.
So what I love about Meta is that Mark Zuckerberg is like executing on all cylinders.
His three main products, Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, are all having record usage,
record high revenues from advertisements,
and they're just humming along.
In fact, they are growing faster than Apple, Microsoft, and Google, and obviously Tesla
and Netflix and others who are in the Mac 7.
But they're the fastest growing Mac 7 company by far.
by far. I mean, no one else is even remotely close. The closest is 13% annualized growth,
I mean, no one else is even remotely close.
which is Microsoft and Google, whereas Meta is at over 20% and accelerating, by the way.
And ironically, the market is rewarding them with a lower price earnings ratio, which,
you know, if you extrapolate that over time, becomes even more ridiculous.
So in a few years, Meta has an opportunity to be even bigger than Google, which is hard to believe.
But at the current growth rates, it takes roughly seven or eight years before that's the case, if the growth rates don't change.
if the growth rates don't change. So, you know, them having a PE of low 20s, which is like 22,
if I'm not mistaken, for meta versus everybody else in the max seven is in the 30s or higher.
So them having a low PE and faster growth, those combinations just make them a much better all
all-around investment from my perspective if you didn't even consider anything else.
around investment from my perspective, if you didn't even consider anything else,
Then when you consider other things, which is that it's also out of Microsoft, Google,
Apple, Amazon, and Meta, it's the only one that's founder-run.
It's the only one that's really making bold bets and very heavy investments in AI much
more so and much more aggressively than any of the others.
And they have currently zero revenue from that AI investment. So these are all investments
they're making in future products and future opportunities, which currently are basically
valued at zero dollars. I mean, just their core business is worth what it is undervalued as it is.
So none of the AI stuff is even valued at all the way I see it.
So if any of those things actually turn out to be a positive revenue generating machine, then meta becomes this incredible opportunity down the road um and you know uh betting on it based on the combination of the factors that
it's undervalued for its existing businesses mark zuckerberg is a pretty smart dude who happens to
be making the right investments that i agree with and then the future for that company is probably
very bright
overall i do tend to agree i do tend to agree did you look deeper into this headline today
around compute meta compute i didn't fully take the time to be able to sit down and understand
exactly what's happening there i saw the headline but i did not um find any additional details about it other than what you already shared.
And I think Ahmed also shared it as well.
But based on the surface level of what we are seeing is that they might be sort of positioning themselves to at least,
I don't know if they're planning on selling compute or not, but they're planning on having a shitload of compute.
And that's promising either way.
If they're not selling it, that means they're using it for themselves in some ways that's going to be extremely positive to their financials.
And, of course, they might also get into the business of selling it.
of selling it. So who knows
So who knows if that ends up being the case.
if that ends up being the case.
Brian Lund, if we still got you,
I wonder what the technicals are looking like on Meta.
Name that has been struggling
a little bit behind, market's been moving
higher. Is this the type of name you just wait and see
on? Or is there like some
levels you're watching on a Meta from a trader
more technical perspective?
Mr. Brian Lund, if we still have you no worries no worries the stocks night but down below I may circle back with you one more question
to meet and it might turn to it into a couple more but obviously you made earnings hub great
website I use it pretty much all the time, especially during earnings season.
We're back tomorrow.
JP Morgan, Delta report earnings.
We have Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock.
I personally don't love bank earnings that much.
I don't love just taking my time and digging deep into banks.
But this kind of signals the start of earnings season being back.
Obviously, next week, we start to get into the tech.
We have Netflix reporting earnings.
The week after that, we have Tesla, Microsoft, and a couple Mag7.
I actually don't see the other ones on here just yet.
I think they'll be confirming their times.
But also that last week of January is Jerome Powell and the Fed speaking.
So I think we're setting ourselves up for a very busy Wednesday the 28th,
which would include Tesla earnings Microsoft
earnings and Jerome Powell speaking but as we head back into earnings season I'm curious kind
of what you're watching here what you're excited about um you know what what really is going to be
be catching your eye obviously the names that you own but are there any names that you may be
intrigued in uh little different ones that you're excited to hear more about during this journey season yeah of course uh netflix is one
of those uh names that i'll i'll always watch because it was uh such a it's been such a fantastic
company for me historically i've made uh a bunch of times my money on them on two different occasions one in
2012 when they're they sort of like had a major correction price correction after announcing their
dvd business uh separation and then again when uh bill ackman and others uh soured on them in 2022
um so in both of those cases netflix uh was became one of my favorite companies and did really really well
for me I'm currently out of it but I still watch them Tesla is one of those companies that again
like between 2015 and 2021 I was a huge fan and then I thought that their stock price got a little
bit ahead of their skis so but I love just hearing what Elon has to say
and counting all the future promises that he's going to make.
He just makes those earnings calls super interesting.
So I'll be listening to that one for sure.
So Wednesday the 28th is a big one with Microsoft and Meta also reporting,
and then the 29th with Apple reporting,
which I'll also be listening to.
So there's a bunch of stuff coming up.
Of course, earning season is my favorite time because for me, it's all about like the revenue
and earnings of a company.
That's the only reason I invest.
I don't invest on hype.
I don't care what other people think.
I don't care what analysts think.
I do my own sort of like math on what my expectations of revenue and profits are. And the earnings is how
I sort of track that in terms of are they sort of meeting the expectations that I had for the
company. And if so, then I buy those companies and I hold on to them. And when price goes ahead of where I think revenues and profits are, then I start trimming or selling out particular companies.
We have added some really cool features since the last earnings season.
So if you haven't been on Earnings Hub lately, I would encourage you to click on any stock and then go to the SEC filings tab. This is a new tab that we just added. And
then we just added the ability to summarize SEC filings. We actually have two summaries for every
single filing. One is a one-line summary, which we show you as we show you
like all of the SCC filings for a company.
Then when you click on a particular SCC filing,
you can also see a detailed summary.
Now, if the AI summaries are not pre-generated,
we're going to pre-generate them for the top 500 companies.
You can actually click the little
generate AI summary button right there
as well. So this is the cool feature. You can subscribe to SEC filings so that you can get
notified every time a company files something with the SEC so you don't miss out on anything.
This is a cool feature that I think I'm shocked that nobody else has out there. And we just added it for Earnings Hub.
So super exciting.
Very cool.
Love it.
Shout out Earnings Hub.
We're about two minutes from the market close.
Other days, really next week,
once we're in the afternoon earnings,
this is when we'll be getting down to business,
getting to the busy points of earnings,
having that Earnings Hub open in front of me. the one that i'm really excited for will be very late
in the earnings season is micron as we were just talking about there you guys look on on earnings
how about the expectations and you include the estimates it's uh quite a giant wick higher than
anything else they've had in the past uh what is expected next quarter 13 billion was what was
reported this past quarter 13.6 billion uh next quarter is expected to be 18.8 billion that 13.6 billion
was an all-time high so uh micron should be an interesting one but they just reported last month
so we're about two months away from that there's only one other time that i've seen that
that kind of jump yeah and as for nvidia it's unbelievable i've never seen anything like it
before i'm very intrigued to see a sandisk as well as i transparently not a name i cover much
similar theme got added to the s&p 500 and has absolutely ripped so far this year i was saying
this earlier the stock is up uh like 50 60 so far in 2026, guys. It's January 12th. Today's the seventh trading day.
So the theme is hot.
When you become the AI bottleneck,
data center bottleneck,
you can become hot.
Logical, I'll come back over to you.
Earnings season is coming up.
You look at a lot of very different names
than most people,
including myself especially.
I am here looking at the big names big names that people
care about stock market just closed i know you're a trader looking for some of the names where you
can find that alpha and do you have any names that are reporting within the next week two weeks and
the first kind of start of earning season as we go into it no i never have large cap holdings so no
my my holdings i'm sure there's still a lot of smaller names
reporting this next week.
I highly doubt that.
I think most of them report in like the,
I mean, starting in somewhere probably mid-February,
I'd imagine, maybe even March.
I'm not kidding.
These guys report Q4s like first week of March.
I mean, generally speaking, when you own small caps, they are reporting very late.
They don't have the same kind of infrastructure that a meta will have where they can just click refresh on their model or whatever and pop out a 10k or whatever.
So, yeah, I don't, in terms of my actual thoughts on earnings season, I mean, I think it's good
that we've had basically three months of consolidation.
So it's much better than, you know, the other situations into like the Q3 earnings report
where we just had a massive ripper from July to October.
And then we go straight into earnings.
And then that's how you get everything gapping down 30%.
So I think what will be interesting is some of these names that,
yeah, I think maybe Micron, they just reported,
so not them specifically, but a concept of that,
like, you know, names that have like like explosive demand but we haven't really been
able to quantify it yet i think that's probably going to be the most interesting so um we'll see
uh those are kind of the more interesting things is like i don't really think it matters much for
i mean i guess maybe for meta because it's's beaten down and like AWS hopefully continues to show acceleration.
So for those reasons, those could be interesting.
But I mean, yeah, I don't know.
Like, obviously, it's going to be great when we get like, you know, those plus 5% on those mega caps and after hours.
And everyone's going to be really hyped about it because that means that the market's probably going to continue to the upside.
But, you know, the last couple quarters where we've had those kinds of reactions, you fade it by the next day and then it ends up being
gross. So I mean, I think what's more interesting that comes out of the earnings is like, I'm not
really too concerned about the business fundamentals, but I'm more thinking about like how the market's
going to react. But overall, this has been a very healthy market. I mean, things look good. Nothing looks overextended.
I think everything's been pretty healthy.
We're not in a bubble.
So I don't think there's anything too concerning.
There have, you know, there have been other,
like when we were into Q3 earnings,
I was very concerned about a lot of things.
And I was quite bearish because, you know,
things had ripped 10X in a few months.
So this is not the same setup.
You've had things down 40, 50% from the highs.
You've had just sideways action.
Whenever you basically get another quarter of data and the price goes sideways, the multiple
actually compresses, which means that from a valuation standpoint, you have a easier
hurdle to cross than you did three months ago. So, yeah, I mean, am I, I'm not really looking at any specific
earnings probably for at least another month and a half, month, month and a half or so.
We'll see what happens then. I have probably 22 holdings right now. I mean, I got a lot of bios.
They're still over like 50% allocation for me. So their earnings don't matter as much because some of them are clinical stage or, you know,
they're buyout candidates or whatever. So I actually prefer this because you have way less
landmines to step over. But what's been interesting actually is, I guess, while you asked,
you know, what earnings am I paying attention to?
It's a JPMorgan Healthcare Conference right now.
And we've already had several, several companies report preliminary numbers for Q4.
That's kind of what they do at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference.
And a few of the numbers coming out have been really strong.
So, yeah, you're getting some preliminary numbers this week
yeah i also even saw the uh nvidia eli lily and thermo fisher i think was a part of that one
came in and made a little little announcement there today as well these conferences for the
record they they can be very interesting uh because a lot of times companies will give updates on how they're doing.
What's the word?
What's that?
Financial updates.
I don't know why I couldn't say that.
They give a lot of financial updates on how their companies are doing, especially at this point in the cycle.
They'll update stuff because a lot of times CFOs want to go out and talk about it.
So these conferences, and there's going to be a couple of them, were really kind of in conference season.
I was at CES last week. I'm sure you saw a couple of these. You'll there's going to be a couple of them, we're really kind of in conference season. I was at CES last week.
I'm sure you saw a couple of these.
You'll see more going forward.
Make sure you're keeping an eye on them.
A little bit could happen.
And some large partnerships will also be announced.
Just so we also know, there's a lot of companies saying
what day they're going to be reporting earnings right now.
So this is not their earnings,
but when they're going to be reporting earnings.
Roblox said February 5th.
Palantir is a popular name. Palantir said, if this loads, that they will be reporting earnings.
Their Q4 earnings for the record, Q4 and 2025, that was a stall tactic. Monday after the close,
February 2nd is when those Palantir earnings will be reported for you fans out there.
So that should be interesting.
Monitiv, I see you down below.
Would love to get you up here, talk about Google,
talk about all the other great stuff going on in the world,
the data center world, the tech world, to come join us up here.
Stock Stampa, see you go in and out a little bit.
We got the Wolf Defense account up here.
Speaking of Palantir, we have a Spaces tomorrow with some Palantir employees, which I am very much looking forward to. I'm going to go over to you, Mr. Stock
Snape, behind that Wolf Defense account, and then I will go over to the wonderful Monitive.
I'm going to say this. I'll probably say it again at some point. You should make sure you're
following the speakers up here. I missed Stocks on Spaces for a week. Stock Talk probably will be here. It's not Wolf Defense.
Weird.
Okay.
Oh, it's not Wolf Defense.
It's Wolf Trading.
Damn.
What's up, Emp?
What's up?
That was quite the curveball for me.
A little bit off.
A little bit off there, but big space tomorrow.
Big space tomorrow. We're going to have
Palantir employees on.
I apologize. I'm going to Monitiv.
Love you. Bye. Hey, Monitiv.
How we doing, sir? Appreciate you joining
us up here. Good afternoon.
Good afternoon, sir. We've gotten
a lot of news in your world
over the last little bit. We had meta, this
compute news. It still
is kind of just a headline right now.
I haven't really seen what's actually happening there.
So I don't know if you have too much takes on Meta.
Google, they finally got that Google-Apple partnership
being announced.
There's still so much more details we need out of that one.
How much will Google be paying Apple?
And I wonder if there's any other takes
you were down there for a little bit.
I appreciate you, sir.
So I have not been following that because I've been busy collating data for the earnings season, right?
This is a very, very busy week for me.
I know none of you guys care about what happens, but J.P. Morgan matters a lot because I don't know how many times I've said this exact thing.
because I don't know how many times I've said this exact thing.
They have the best exposure to every part of the economy,
and their data is far more current than any data you get from any other source.
So as a bank that needs to make decisions every day based on data that they see coming back to them,
that data is about the most current economic
data you can get.
So what JP Morgan does and what JP Morgan says is far more important than, you know,
hearing some economic report, you know, that's based on, you know, two-month-old data and
data and one month old computation of that data.
one-month-old computation of that data.
So anyway, look, Google's run up, right?
At this point, my interest is to start hedging it and making some, maybe some income while
it continues to go wherever it's going and not add to the position anymore.
I have a very large position,
so I don't need to add to anything in Google.
And I don't think it's cheap anymore.
It's certainly fairly priced,
but they need to continue to show, you know, execution.
So that's Google.
Meta, I mean, I'll just say this much. I'm still concerned about,
you know, about their, you know, really tiny cash, free cash flow at this point in time outside of
their, you know, all the, because of all their spend. So, so I want to see, you know, I want
to see if the free cash flow improves. And I want to see what they're
doing about the spend. And I'm also concerned about their off balance sheet items. So I have to,
you know, get alternate data to research that. So again, I have a position, I'm not adding to it,
I'm not cutting it back, but I'm not adding to it. So that's those two. Those are the,
adding to it so that's those two um those are the well i have a large nvidia position um but again
that's that's another position i've not added in you know three four months on nvidia did you have
any takes from uh ces last week jensen wonk speaking was there anything that stood out too
or kind of more of the same i didn't i was i was uh i was busy. I had to take care of some things at home. So I did not watch. I'll catch up eventually. But again, the stock has not reacted all that much. So I'm guessing whatever he said has, demand is through the roof. We can't get enough memory. We can't
get enough manufacturing capacity. Customers, you know, are still paying just as much they did
three years ago for compute as they're doing today. So either all of that is true and we're
all very cheap, in which case I'm happy to just let my position explode up or you know all of that
is bluster and we're going to have a day of reckoning soon so i don't know which is which
yet but but i'm i'm concerned that not all of it can be absolutely true if if that's the case why
is why is nvidia not running up much more um like i said uh you know i got the position during uh you know deep seek uh uh mess
when they sold down hard and i've just padded it a little bit and left it alone i i trade around it
i hedge it occasionally i don't have any hedges now so we'll see what happens. I did have a bunch of people I met yesterday at a friend's party.
They're all from the semi-space.
They're all bullish.
One of my friends, his company was bought by Marvell.
It's a startup.
Another friend, his startup was bought by Marvell. It's a startup. Another friend, his startup was bought by Meta.
So this activity is still going on,
and the deals are pretty good from how I understand it,
from what they're being paid to stay back
and finish what they're doing.
You know, these are good deals.
So there's still premium there valuations uh you know
it's it's not that easy anymore they're all stretched so this is a show me quarter for a
lot of them if they don't show the kind of growth that has been priced in you're going to see some
pullbacks if they do and guide up then you know maybe we are cheap so you know it could be that that wide of
you know a variation between what you know what could be and you know what happens so
we'll see i i'm not super bullish just because i think we've run up so much, I think we need to take a breather in semis.
I'll give you an example.
If the news about Google firing people because they did not manage the program correctly
and they do not have the amount of memory they need
well one of two things happens right well one of few things happens one google's going to
not have you know enough gpus for the demand they forecast so their cloud growth expectations
should be off even if it's a tiny bit off, certainly, right?
Or maybe the growth is not as strong as expected.
If that's the case, then they're going to, you know,
have less memory to hand over to Broadcom,
who will produce less.
And, you know, Broadcom will have a, you know,
will have a miss of some sort, right?
Either in guidance or in real numbers.
I don't know.
I mean, the chatter and the price action don't necessarily match up.
So I'm waiting to see some real data that I can show on and say, you know what?
Okay, this was all bluster.
There's really nothing to it.
Or this is for real and these guys are in deep shit and they need to
be sold off right one or two things has to happen so yeah it's for that reason i've not added in
quite a while i'm just just sitting by watching my positions but going back you know to to to
to numbers here right we're looking at 8.8 percent earnings growth and 7.2% revenue growth.
Almost, well, much of that earnings growth is coming from technology.
Now, I don't have the data yet to break up within technology, which industry, I'm going to guess much of that is going to be semis just based on price action.
But 26.5% earnings growth from technology and 18% revenue growth. Now, that's a good thing. So
18% revenue growth producing another 27% earnings growth. That seems not lopsided like last time.
Like last time, the revenue growth was high
and the earnings growth expectation was not that high,
which meant, you know, they were probably going to struggle
to bring up their margins.
But this time it looks good.
So we should see a healthy margin growth also.
Communication services.
Communication services is interesting, actually.
So 7.3% earnings growth with 8.6% revenue growth.
So that's lopsided.
So there could be margin pressure there in communication services.
Growing revenues faster than earnings is very rare.
So that's that. And the only other sector with that higher growth
is healthcare. Everybody else
and healthcare is also mostly revenue growth, not earnings growth.
Let's see, industrials are small.
Yeah, the rest are meaningless.
So the numbers are still solid, right?
And they've not changed all that much since the beginning of Jan.
They're pretty flat.
Since the beginning of October, they've gone up,
which is good because that takes into account last quarter's earnings and guidance.
is good because that takes into account last quarter's earnings and guidance.
So that is, the numbers look just fine at this point in time.
The expectations look pretty solid.
So we should know by the second week of February how S&P as a whole will look for Q1.
S&P as a whole will look for Q1.
Oh, I did talk about this in other places,
but defense, right?
So I'm actually expecting mixed results from defense,
definitely the defense majors,
primarily because we had half the quarter
the government was shut down,
literally half quarter, 45, 43 days
or whatever it was, down literally half quarter 45 43 days or whatever it was which
is half quarter anyway so um it's not like they would have missed um it's not like they'll have
a revenue impairment fully but rather a delay in in recognition of revenue or delay in program
delay in deliveries which could also mean that, you know, delivery-based payments didn't come
through or will come through later than expected and might fall out in a completely different
quarter.
So I do expect a few of those to happen, right?
Like either outright misses and negative guides or, you know, not expected beats and cautious guides at best.
But given what we are seeing in terms of budget expectations, things like that,
should probably be a very good full year guide and a very cautious Q1 and potentially even Q2 guide.
cautious Q1 and potentially even Q2 guide, right?
If somebody says that they had a problem with their numbers because of the last
shutdown, then the next question is going to be, okay,
we expect there's a possibility of another shutdown in January, you know,
January 30th.
Are you not taking that into account?
So my guess is we could have from defense,
cautious guide for H1 and a very bullish guide for H2 without taking down the full year numbers at all.
So much of that growth is going to come in second half
is the way I read the data.
I think the market would penalize for that as well.
I've seen, if you miss any of the forward guidance.
It should, which is why I have not built big positions and I'm expecting the market to penalize them.
So I will use that opportunity to pick up.
That's exactly what I'm counting on.
I could be very wrong here, of course.
But, you know, you cannot go half a quarter with the government shutdown and not impact the defense sector.
Again, right? It's temporary, but it's still an impact.
What about the defense sector headlines we got on Friday-ish?
Might have been the day before or the day after.
We got two interesting ones.
One was they're not allowed to do dividends, not allowed to do share buybacks until certain things happen. But there was another one.
And they sort of set off each other.
Yeah, there was another one that was kind of interesting.
He wants to bring the defense budget from $1 trillion up to $1.5 trillion.
That one probably needs approval.
But yeah, now our thought does.
That's never going to happen.
We'll get it to maybe one.
Look, usually it grows somewhere between 3% and 6%.
We probably get a little bit more, let's say charitably it goes to $1.1 trillion.
$1.5 trillion is not happening.
That's just bluster.
For that to happen, we're going to have to cut back somewhere else or we're going to raise taxes.
You think those fly in an election year of all things?
Yeah, I don't think so.
Again, it's not up to him, right? It's up to the Congress.
So either he has to beat them down and say, you know what, I'm going to go against every one of
you that doesn't vote for $1.5 trillion. He's still going to have people that push back and
it'll likely fail. $1.1 at best could come through. through 1.5 not without significant offsets somewhere else
right so so and and and remember we are not increasing we're not increasing pay substantially
we're not so there will be some deployment costs and and and and uh pay related to that.
But, you know, much of that half a trillion increase
is towards equipment and upgrades, right?
Like brand new equipment and upgrade and maintenance of,
you know, and larger depreciation because, you know,
we're moving things around quite a bit at rapid pace.
So some of those will directly, you know, a lot of that, right,
anything that increase from trillion dollars is all going to go to the industry for most part.
So it's a big deal.
So even if it's $100 billion, it's a very big deal.
As far as blocking dividends and buybacks, again, it'll get appealed.
How many institutions, how many pension funds invest in defense only because the 8% or 9%
annual growth is topped up by 3% or 4% percent dividend and then the buyback adds another
couple of hundred basis points so you get your you know mid to low i mean low to mid teens growth
right that's that's the only reason it's part of the package that's why people invest in defense
i'm talking about primes so to to say that they're not allowed to do that uh i don't think is is
first of all i don't think it's legal all, I don't think it's legal.
Second, I don't think it's going to get implemented because it's going to get blocked on appeal.
So we're far from that.
But, you know, let's take the extreme case, right?
He was pissed off with Raytheon not expanding production or something like that.
They could pull back deals for Raytheon, and that could really hurt them, right?
They can do that.
Just by dragging their feet, they can really hurt the company.
So even if there is a sell-off in defense, I'd probably be far more careful getting into a Raytheon versus a Northrop,
for example.
So those are things you have to take into account because there can be significant headaches
if nothing else, right?
So that's my thing.
My two favorites are still, you know, the same as it was, you know, two months, three
months ago now.
Northrop and Boeing, those are the only two I still like.
The others are far more expensive for my taste.
I have very large positions outside U.S. in defense,
so I'm not going to, you know, I'm probably going to start taking profits
in European defense and moving those to small cap positions.
Probably do some of that in the U.S.
I don't have exposure to U.S. mega caps defense right now.
So I will add at some point in time this month or early next month, I will add Boeing and Northrop back into my portfolio.
Very nice. very nice.
One of the companies that I've been doing a little bit work with,
Themes, Leverchairs, has a one of the thematic ETFs is a defense one.
It's transatlantic, ticker's NATO, N-A-T-O.
So I've been kind of focused and trying to dig in deeper into those European ones a little bit
more, which I didn't have too much knowledge on. The Ryan Mittals, Rolls-Royce, South France, et cetera.
So Ryan Mittal has already run up a lot.
So it's going to, I mean, look, they've gone from, you know,
assisting a few large programs to delivering, you know,
NATO standard munitions to becoming, you know becoming one of the largest NATO munition producers
and becoming a larger part of programs in armaments, like mobile armor, tanks and infantry vehicles.
So they're getting larger and larger deals there. But again,
it's up, what, 400% in three years or 500% in three years, some crazy number like that. I took
my position off. I have NATO. I like it. So that's what I've done. I've started taking some
individual positions off and put them back, part of it back into European ETFs. That way it's diversified and I don't have, you know, large swing exposure to
something. I mean, look, every one of those companies, Trump could change policy and say,
you cannot sell to this country because there's a, you know, part of it comes
from, you know, from U.S. technology. So that existential risk is always there, right? Like
we're seeing that with Saab Grippens, right? So that risk is always there. So you have to be
careful with European defense in that sense. So, which is why I want to lock in some of my profits this year.
Probably early in the year.
And then I'll put that back
just to not be overexposed
to small caps. Put that back
in some large cap ETFs.
And then put the rest
into individual names.
But there's a lot of very interesting
European defense names, right?
Like Safran.
I have a very large position in Safran.
It's more than, it's up, you know, four times or something in the last few years.
It's really the only engine producer outside of U.S.
But they also have a large commercial side because they are 50% of CFM.
So they supply pretty much all of Airbus's needs for single-oil engines.
And Boeing still dominates in the larger engine program.
So that's Saffron.
And they also supply to all the French aircraft, right, Rafales.
Anything made by Dussault on the defense side is Saffron engines.
So that's big.
Rolls-Royce, of course, Rolls-Royce has business everywhere,
and they are the only competitor to Boeing in the large engine side of it, right?
The multi-isle aircraft.
They supply to both Airbus and Boeing.
They do also have defense contracts.
They also have exposure to nuclear.
They have exposure to energy market, right?
Like data center turbine market.
So Rolls-R Royce is very interesting.
Still not overly crazy multiples.
I still like that, so I'm going to keep most of my position.
I trimmed a little at the end of last year, took some profits.
Just going to keep the rest, just let it be.
Leonardo, a big powerhouse in electronics in Europe's side.
They do have a lot of exposure in the U.S. also.
That is part of pretty much every European ETF.
There's a couple of others that are large uh bae system bae has probably among
european companies the largest exposure to to us mega programs right like they supply to
f35s f16s they supply to pretty much every one of the gD's, GDLS's machines.
They have a bunch of mega programs
where they are one of the largest suppliers.
So BAE Systems is there in pretty much every European ETF.
Let's see, who else? Airbus, of course.
I have a position in Airbus.
I've not sold it it's it's more than
doubled i i like it i'm just going to leave it alone but again they still have the issue that
you know um that rayteon is struggling with uh with maintenance issues with uh gear turbofan And Trump is slow walking CFM supply to Airbus.
So that is why Airbus is not meeting the top end of their delivery numbers.
But it's something if it gets settled, their production numbers could explode up.
I still like Airbus. I'm not going to do anything with it.
But that's about it.
Those are the really large names.
I have already talked about Saab.
You mentioned Rhinmetal.
There's a few others.
But those are the big ones.
But my favorites and my best performers last year were Japanese and Korean names.
So those, even the ETFs, you know,
gone up substantially, like some of the ETFs are up like 3, 4x. But those names have outperformed
dramatically in defense in the last year. So I'm going to double down on some of them, and let the rest run. I don't think we're done with the move in Korean and Japanese names.
The more we try to increase manufacturing,
the more these names are going to have to be involved in it
because they bring heavy engineering expertise.
They bring production at a much lower cost
and a much higher quality than we can build in any short period of time.
And also, what is interesting with Korean and Japanese names is that they tend to be very large engineering shops, meaning they do heavy engineering, which transcends you know ai data centers for energy into nuclear
they supply you know pressure vessels they supply uh control systems things like that so so they
tend to win on multiple friend fronts right like uh you know mitsubishi heavy or Sumitomo Heavy. Those are all companies that have defense presence,
but they also excel in shipbuilding, in engineering,
in heavy industrial, heavy electrical.
So all of those are winners.
And as long as these data center teams keep playing,
they'll have a full order book.
So multiple places to win with Japanese and Korean.
You know, they're conglomerates, basically.
So it just so happens now is a good time where all of their businesses is doing well.
So I still like that.
And I'm still going to double down on my overall position there. I'm going to increase the percentage allocation to Korean and
Japanese industrials and defense. And I've started increasing my position to the Indian
defense companies too. So. Thank you, Amantiv, for that really good rundown. Defense areas is thank you
for that really good rundown
defense areas is one that I'm interested in for sure
and even within those nation pockets
there are also pockets of
what part of defense they're in
whether it's missiles, whether it's drones
which I know has become very popular
even the AI software aspect of it
which has also become popular
in the Palantir's of the world.
This is definitely a part of the market that...
Listen, I don't want this to be the truth,
but I live in a world of truth.
This is going to be needed going forward,
and it's probably going to be more needed to continue.
So it's definitely an area that I am watching,
and I'd rather have it than not and need it for sure.
And like I said, it's not what I want.
But we live in a world where you got to be realistic.
And honestly, what we've seen with Venezuela and this stuff,
you have the power to do something.
You can kind of just do it right now.
Again, for better or for worse.
But things are just happening.
So it's a very interesting world.
And the defense area is quite an interesting area to invest in.
So I appreciate that take right there.
I apologize for keeping it on you for maybe like 20, 30 minutes here or something,
but I have one last question.
And then we'll have some of the other friends come in,
maybe logical, take us home for a little bit and tell us about the market
and what he was watching from the trader's perspective.
If you guys love hearing, if you're an active trader
and you want to hear trading content throughout that day,
that Black Wolf that's up here is a wolf trading account.
And Jordan, we got the whole squad on there.
Logical comes in, hangs out every once in a while.
Monitive, not so much, but we'll get into the light side sometime soon.
They're just trading all day, every day.
So if you love that, go follow that account
and you'll
get some great content. But the question I wanted to ask you, Monitiv, and you, sorry, follow all
the speakers. They are all fantastic. They will improve your experience on this app. Really smart
people. Monitiv is great. So is everyone else. Logical. And if you guys enjoy these type of live
free content, follow the host. Question I wanted to ask you about was Oracle. Oracle is a name that you've kind of been a little bit negative on here in the past.
The reason it's kind of coming up a little bit, Michael Burry,
there is a, he kind of came out short on it.
He was kind of talking about, listen, I don't like this AI theme.
If I go short a lot of these other names,
I'm getting a lot of other businesses that I think I enjoy.
He said Meta and their advertising business was one that he didn't want to short Amazon and their e-commerce
business was one that he didn't want to short, but he did want to get access to that AI play,
uh, and going short it. Now I'm not saying Michael Burry is the end all be all, but he definitely
did make some people come in and talk about it. And it's something that you've talked about before.
Tell me more about Oracle. If we're feeling it. I believe those Oracle comments were closer to when we were at like $900 billion market cap.
And here we are around $600.
So a lot of that has played out.
A very different story where it is right now.
But do you have any updated takes on Oracle?
Well, I still don't like it, but I don't dislike it enough to go short here.
I need to let it go up to $250 or so before I short it again.
Oracle, I think, has a serious problem.
They're just throwing money into AI at a very late state,
state and they are not in any position to dictate prices, right? They're basically,
and they are not in any position to dictate prices.
whatever money they make from their very high margin traditional business is going to go to a
very low or far lower margin, you know, computer rental business. That's not the way I want to see
balance sheets evolve. And this is going the wrong way. And they do not
make the kind of cash to commit, you know, to a questionable customer, you know, that size of
CapEx, right? It's just not comfortable, which was my original thesis and which turned out to
be 100% right. But again, Oracle is not a, you know know it's not a shit go they they make a lot of
money so um to to to think that they are a shot at any price is just stupid it's it's a death wish
i needed to get back to the 250 or so range to short it again. Here, I have no interest. I don't trust it enough to run the upside,
but I'm happily waiting for the next downside.
I have similar issues with AMD too.
The level of exposure you have to a single customer
who does not have the kind of balance sheet to really deliver the kind of growth you want from them.
I don't think it's going to work.
Same thing with AMD.
Like I said, at 250s, it was a great short.
Below 200, I have no interest in it i don't i don't trust it enough to
let it run up but i'm happy to wait and watch that run up so i can short it again
so um right now i have no position but hopefully it goes up 10 15 on earnings so i can hit it again.
Good take there, Monotov.
It's definitely a very different story here where it is right now versus
where it was getting to when all those announcements
were coming out. And you kind of mentioned it with meta.
All this off-balance sheet stuff,
Blue Owl Capital, whatever, I'm sure there's
a lot more of them,
might end up never
becoming anything.
If this AI wave keeps doing well,
it won't matter.
But it could be a little interesting.
Could cause some interesting times going forward the next little bit.
Well, it's not just AI wave, right?
Remember, all of these companies
are committing to contracts
that will require them to spend money.
Even if we have a consumer slowdown, it's a problem.
If we have disruption because of war or something else, we have a problem.
So there's multiple reasons this could go wrong.
If we just have shortages, we have a problem, right? Because, I mean, even Google, for that matter, has guaranteed revenue to what
IREN or the other one, ClearSpark, whoever, that they did, two of them that they did a deal with.
If we end up with serious memory shortages whereby we're not able to build enough hardware to power
these up, they're still on the hook for guaranteeing that revenue.
So they still have to pay up.
So there's multiple ways this could unravel.
And, you know, with a balance sheet like Google,
I'm willing to, you know, take that risk a little bit,
not add, but at least wait.
With a balance sheet like Oracle, I'm not. And that's
the difference. Why I'm, you know, okay, sitting on one position versus, you know, not wanting to
have anything to do with another position. Why don't we bring thank you
if you guys are not following Monitive I think that was
like 30 minutes going through and we learned
a lot there through a couple different sectors
and there's still a couple more that we didn't even get
to touch on that that Monitive is
a big fan of so
thank you for that Mr. Sir
Mr. Monitive, Mr. Wealth
let's bring
Emperor Ador into this Mr. Wolf Ryan it's Monitiv, Mr. Wealth. Let's bring Emperor Ador into this.
Mr. Wolf Ryan, it's not even an Emperor Ador anymore.
How was the market for you today?
Pretty straightforward based on the read that I had going into today.
Panic hedging last night in the futures market with the Powell headline.
Panic hedging last night in the futures market with the Powell headline.
And basically, market buying the dip, not caring,
and just a lot of people had to cover those shorts all day long.
So you just got a grind up, ripped off the open,
and then just grind it up all day with those shorts just covering right back out.
New all-time high.
Nothing bearish about that.
IWM and the S&P both.
I believe, yes, IWM hit it today as well.
Highest closing ever on the S&P once again.
Tech's still lagging a little bit, but fully out of this triangle breakout.
Took out the two previous shots.
So we'll see.
Obviously, there's some stuff on the radar with CPI tomorrow, PPI on Wednesday, possible Supreme Court decision on Wednesday.
So there's still some things there, but I think the market kind of needs the wall of worry to climb other than this run up maybe into earnings season kind of getting kicked off.
kicked off obviously at the banks, you know, tomorrow morning through the rest of this week.
And then Netflix next Tuesday kind of kicking off the tech earnings after the Monday holiday. So
I don't know. I mean, obviously the metals went crazy today as well, but just the bigger
perspective was, you know, a little bit of hedging, I guess, more than anything. And the dip got bought
immediately. You had, you know, the markets telling you it didn't care as much about what's going on with the
Powell stuff and all those hedges that came in last night into the overnight session.
We're just getting unwound and grinding us higher all day.
So yeah, I mean, other than some of your mega cap tech names, some of your MAG7 names,
other than some of those, most of your charts look pretty
good. I mean, there's some bad looking charts out there, but your indices look good. And there's some
names here and there that are set up pretty nicely. And yeah, that's what I've got on this
Monday. I still think we're waiting for the next catalyst to push the market higher, but the wall of worry kind of pulled that rubber band down a little bit to dip by.
I think that does help a little bit.
And then the technical structure of all these charts looks really good from the small caps to the Dow to the S&P to the NASDAQ.
I mean, technically speaking, all these charts look very, very good.
We were talking about this a little bit earlier.
Were you surprised on the market reaction today off of those headlines from yesterday?
This is what I was looking for.
And I was kind of saying this last night, you know, by the fear, you know, people hedging.
It's like, okay, it's,
it's kind of a, an uncertainty shock to the thing. But if you, I guess if you take a step back from
the headline piece of it and you just think, okay, Powell's kind of on the way out anyway,
is it kind of concerning what's going on from the political side? Yes. But just as it pertains to
the actual market after that initial shock, shock kind of hits, then you're kind of like,
okay, well, what changed as far as, you know, the pricing and rate cuts and stuff like that?
Did anything just materially change here in the current scenario that we're in? And I think if
you put all the other pieces aside and just think about it from the market perspective,
I don't think there's as much of a shock thing to it.
I don't think it changed or re-rated anything.
So other than, like I said, some hedging off the headline that was getting unwound once price kind of started picking up today,
I'm not that surprised by the reaction.
And this market is a strong, raging bull market.
It's very resilient.
These dips keep getting bought.
And, I mean, low of day-to-day was a daily 9 EMA on NASDAQ.
And we didn't even, I don't even think we got close to it, a little bit close to it,
but we didn't even touch it, you know, a 9 period EMA on a daily chart, which is a pretty
fast reactive moving average.
So we didn't even get that low.
So yeah, I think, you know, if you were
wondering if the headline was a big deal, the market's basically telling you that they're not
concerned about that piece of the headline right now. Yeah, that is fair. It's a really interesting
market right now because, I mean, the indexes are basically at all-time highs. SPY hit it today.
But there are still some names under the cover that that are are being a little interesting and I know you're
uh you enjoy taking those short plays on spaces that's the where we're at in the world right now
or we we make it some longs yeah I was on the long side from this morning and I mean when I
look at the bigger you know the bigger picture of things, it looks like a run up into earnings season to me. And then then you get, you know, further information at that point, you make a further decision there. But at this point, just just purely technicals, it looks like everything is set up to make another leg higher.
the leg higher. Um, I don't think it's just going to explode higher, um, without some type of, you
know, catalyst that drives it, whether it be good earnings across the board, maybe some more news
or something, but everything just looks, and I love shorts and it's hard for me to like,
to sit, sit like today, just get in a long and just sit there all day, just, you know, hold your
breath and buy somewhere and close your eyes and wait for it to go up. But sometimes you just, you have to do that when the charts are telling you how strong they are
and, you know, buyers are stepping in, shorts are covering. So yeah, I mean, as much as I love
shorts because they move a little bit faster on the shorter timeframes, I don't see a short in
this market right now. Well, it's individuals. There's some individual names, yes.
But outside of like in the bigger scheme of things,
I don't see any reason to be that bearish on the overall market.
I mean, the only argument I could see is,
you know, some of your MAG7 names,
you know, like Microsoft rejecting the 200-day today.
Meta's still having trouble.
I mean, it's sitting on the 50-day,
but it's still having trouble
kind of getting moving a little bit. Apple just kind of consolidating right at a
previous all-time high. I can see like a couple charts and heavily weighted names that maybe are
struggling a little bit. I mean, Nvidia is also under its 50-day, but it's over the 20-day.
But I just, when I look at the bigger picture of things,
as the market keeps broadening out into some of these other names,
it just looks healthy to me, and it looks strong.
Were there any takes during this last 45 minutes or so
you were in a space that you felt interesting that were intrigued for you?
Yeah, I mean, every time
Monitiv talks, I get smarter. So I always appreciate listening to him anywhere he's
speaking. So great to have him on here. And that's, you know, I only really caught what he was
saying. I didn't get to join in much earlier. We were finishing up the stream, of course. But
you know, I hear about this, the picture, and obviously there's some
concerns there, but it just feels like, and Monit, you know, correct me if I'm wrong, but it just
feels like they're going to push this thing as far as they can before those cracks start mattering,
the ones under the surface. And I'm not saying they don't matter now. I just think people are
not as concerned about them now as they are concerned about missing out on the upside in the near term.
And eventually, yes, there's some major concerns there that Monitif points out.
And yes, they will surface at some point.
It just feels like the market's going to continue to risk itself to the upside
versus pay attention to the current
risks that are downside? Yeah, I mean, look, the consensus estimates, that's exactly what they're
saying. The consensus estimates is a sum total of analysts' own work plus heavily influenced by what the companies guide. And if the companies overall are bullish still,
the analysts find it very difficult to go against that and say, except in individual cases,
like an Oracle or an AMD or something like that, it's very difficult for them to find reasons to
go against it. So yes, the consensus take is that we keep grinding higher.
The earnings keep growing.
The revenue keeps growing until something falls apart.
But we don't know today what's going to fall apart, and we don't know when yet, right?
So yeah, the easier path is up.
The easier path is up.
I'm seeing some Trump comments.
I assume this is a Truth Social post, but I'm having trouble getting on to Truth Social.
Effective immediately, any country doing business with Iran will pay a 25% tariff on any business.
This basically means, if you guys don't know, China buys a lot of oil from
Iran. It is true social effective immediately. You just read the first two lines of it. This
order is final and conclusive. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
So this is 25% in addition to the tariff they have today. Yeah.
Okay.
I did think it was interesting that they were working out a deal with Taiwan Semi to lower the Taiwan tariff to 15% that I saw earlier today. I thought that was an interesting piece.
I don't know how that affects Taiwan Semi as far as between them producing chips over there versus over here.
between them producing chips over there versus over here.
But I guess if you're in the good graces of the administration, either way,
and I wouldn't be surprised to see some subsidies from the government at some point
to even help Taiwan semi-further in these Arizona fabs that they are continuing to try to build.
But I did see – haven't heard much from tariffs in a while, I guess, overall,
other than the Supreme Court decision.
But hearing a lowering tariff on Taiwan, the market seem to like that in the middle of the day what's up sniper um
i don't have anything providing towards the this current comment uh i was gonna ask if we
talked defense or not uh we did we did a little bit but what do you want to add to it? Did we talk Kratos?
Not particularly.
Okay, so again, I was not here in the beginning,
so nobody get mad at me if I'm talking about something that's already covered.
But guys, Kratos is up 58% in the last month,
and I feel like still not enough people are paying attention to this.
I think that just about any time you hear the word hypersonic, Kratos is involved one way or another with 10 massively developing hypersonic test kits and different kinds of hypersonic exhaust, different hypersonic technologies all over the place.
We saw a massive boost on this under the news or under the rumor that Trump is planning to increase the U.S. defense budget in 2027 from one trillion to one point five trillion.
That is a 50% increase. That is
massive. One of the biggest ones we've seen in quite a while. And if this goes through,
Kratos will be a huge key player. The reason why we're saying this is, again, we can talk about
autonomous warfare and next generation stuff, but I think it's going to be also partly because of
this hypersonic technology. Another thing that Trump has been talking about is sending somebody to Mars.
I think we saw some of that last week.
I don't want to get too in-depth on that.
But, again, good reason to be watching Rocket Lab.
And also, Kratos will get another buff for that for the hypersonic technology.
Because, believe it or not, hypersonic technology does help power rocket ships.
Quick little 60 second round.
There we go, Kratos.
I actually thought the Wolf trading account
that's up here was the Wolf defense one.
So I was calling you earlier
to give some defense takes.
We got a cool interview with Palantir
coming up tomorrow.
I'm excited for that one,
especially if you're interested
in the defense area.
We will be focused on that one.
We might even talk a little drones and hypersonic
and all of that stuff.
So I am looking forward to that conversation coming up.
Post it from the Wolf Defense account.
If you're following me, you will see that.
If you're following the Wolf account and some others.
We're going to have a special guest or two.
And I have one that I can say now.
Amit will probably be there.
Amit will probably be there.
Yeah, I don't want to say what happened, but Amit will probably be there. And we will probably be there. Yeah, I don't want to say what happened,
but Amit will probably be there.
And we have another special guest on top of that
who I am excited about.
And we'll get to hear from...
I've talked to him before,
but I don't know if he's actually been on X Spaces
or anything like that before.
So we might be getting a nice,
exclusive interview coming that way.
I'm looking forward to it.
Mr. Logic, yeah? He's apparently, and he's been described to me of you coming that way. I'm looking forward to it. Yeah.
He's apparently, and he's been described to me as an absolute
expert and an absolute wizard of defense.
I'm looking forward
to it. Good conversations. I've met him before.
He is. He's a very smart guy.
You don't work at some of these large companies
with whatever if you're not a very smart
person. So, yeah. Shout out to him.
I'm looking forward to that interview tomorrow.
Shout out to Kevin's team for getting that set up.
And, yeah, Mr. Logical, why don't you bring us home here?
We got about seven minutes left in the spaces.
You don't have to talk for seven minutes.
I got some stuff to come back in and cutting on.
But was there any parts of this that you found interesting?
I know you're small.
You're a Smithcap guy.
So maybe there's some themes.
But yeah, tell me more.
How are we feeling?
You know, I think one thing I'm thinking about is, man,
I'm looking at some of these names,
and it's almost like a lot of the growth names from 25
are the ones that are leading the charge again here in 26.
Man, some of these moves are crazy fast.
Like, I don't really pay too much attention to a lot of these names that have a ton of hype i mean you know stocks night but just mentioned k
kratos and i just look at that stock i can't believe it's up 48 year-to-date holy i mean
some of these names are up a lot in like a two-week, bloom energy of 39% year to date. I mean,
these are crazy moves. I don't know. Yeah, maybe, maybe they keep going higher from here.
But that's just crazy. I don't know. I'm just kind of speechless, to be honest, like,
what I can say is like, clearly, that's probably been the right call to be long some of these things.
I'm not that kind of investor.
But I don't know if like, if you're thinking about it now, like, it's so hard for me to say that you want to go get long these things right now because they're up so much in such a short period of time.
I'm just personally not someone who chases.
But who knows, man? I mean, last year, that's kind
of how it felt in the beginning of the year in January and then, you know, February, things got
even sillier. So you never know these things can just keep ripping to the upside. But man, some of
these moves have been insane. And I mean, I have a few in my portfolio that are up a lot too. But
I mean, these are like $20 billion companies that are up this much. So it's pretty crazy.
I don't know. I don't really have much else to add.
Sandisk, SNDK, what?
Sandisk, the memory chip players.
That's my thing though.
It's like, did we just do, like, did some people just get like their annual returns in the first two weeks owning a lot of these things?
The answer might be yes.
I don't know yet.
But we'll see.
I mean, I'm just wondering how much of like the future of this year did we just price in on some of these names so quickly.
I haven't been paying much attention, but now that I'm looking, I'm like, holy crap.
Those are like, those are moves where it's like too far too fast.
But who knows?
I mean, 26 just started.
So it's not like these things have been running all year.
I mean, they technically have, but it's only been two weeks.
So, you know, I don't, it would be hard for me to think that two weeks and the run's over.
So they could probably keep going higher from here.
But, you know, every day that these things go up, it just makes it for a tougher risk reward.
Yeah, no, that is fair. That is fair.
The high beta names have had a good start to the year.
They had a little rough points before.
Some of them maybe even didn't recover fully from certain levels. But yeah, high beta has had this year so far.
I saw someone comment tomorrow is Taco Tuesday.
Tomorrow is we'll be back.
We'll be back on the spaces.
We've got a full week coming up.
Thursday might be a little wonky, but we will be here.
I got confirmation of Stock Talk. We'll also be back on Spaces. We've got a full week coming up. Thursday might be a little wonky, but we will be here. I got confirmation that Stock Talk will also be back on Spaces tomorrow.
So I'm sure we'll talk about the Inersis, the Amcors,
One Stop Systems, OSS has been one that's been getting talked about a bunch.
I was talking with Sam.
I'm excited to have him on.
I know Zeta has become a FinTwip favorite a little bit out of nowhere.
I'm excited to dig more in on that one as well.
So we should have a full week of stocks on spaces back.
I'm looking forward to it.
We're getting very, very close to the point where earnings are not just,
earnings season is just not back, but we're having earnings on these spaces.
Afternoon earnings.
Give me those tech names.
I love it.
I love it when there's like one or two, not when there's like 25 and I have to like be
all over the place.
The ADHD can only handle so much.
But we are getting very close back into the thick of earning season.
You should make sure you are following all of the fantastic speakers up here.
We got StockSniper.
We got Logical.
We got WolfTrading.
We got Monitive.
Go in, check them out.
They're all fantastic.
They will improve your experience on this app. If you enjoy content in general, that Wolf account,
you should make sure you go in and follow it. We got a couple of Wolf badges. If the
news account was up here, you'd also see another Wolf badge there. The pinned post for that Wolf
financial page is all the live content. Well, a bunch of that we are doing out through this week.
That doesn't even include Wolf Bitcoin and so much. There is just a ton. page is all the live content. Well, a bunch of that we are doing out through this week.
That doesn't even include Wolf Bitcoin and so much.
There is just a ton.
And even all the YouTube videos we're making.
There is a lot of content going out from that page. So go ahead and follow that Wolf account.
And then, of course, if you enjoy live free content Monday through Thursday,
we are live here, 3 to 5 p.m. Eastern at least,
having some good conversations.
Last week was CES, so it was a little bit more.
We were just on the side.
We were not doing it.
But we will be back fully this week and pretty much going forward.
I'm excited for Ernie's season.
I am looking forward to it.
Does anyone have any things that they didn't get to say on this basis?
I don't necessarily have the craziest of hard stops in my life at 5 p.m. Eastern, just a call,
but they can wait.
Is there any last comments anyone had,
any conversations that we kind of were going down
that maybe you didn't get a point out on,
anything we didn't talk about?
I would just say watch bank earnings in the morning
before they come out and take a look
at one of the airlines reports
and it will give us some good sector
insight for the rest of them. And I guess that's my closing thought.
I went for a strategic pause there. See if anyone grabbed the bull by its horns. We do have JP
Morgan earnings tomorrow morning and then Delta earnings tomorrow morning as well.
So banks and airlines,
airlines should get some movement off of that one.
As Monica was saying before,
people love them some JP Morgan earnings.
Jamie Dimon is a very well-respected person.
A little bit of a doomer most of the time,
but well-respected.
I'm sure we're gonna get some sort of headline
about how stuff isn't going so great,
but I digress. We shall see.'re going to get some sort of headline about how stuff isn't going so great, but I digress.
We shall see.
JP Morgan does have some fantastic insights across the economy, and they should share them with us as well.
All right, people.
On that Wolf account, there will be a spaces opening up right now when I close this.
They are going to be opening up a space doing stock picks for the week.
30 minutes, roughly, going through just thoughts, sentiments, stuff like that.
30 minutes giving two stock picks for this next upcoming week.
It's a fun competition.
This is one of our longest running spaces series.
So if you want more content right now, if you're sitting here wanting more stuff to do,
I know that we got up to 700 people and there's still 500 of you in here.
That Wolf account will be opening up a space pretty much right when I close this down.
5 p.m. Eastern. Stock picks for the week. It is 5 p.m. Eastern. They are starting. We got a crew
over there. Michael Knauss, Chris Patel, Sam Sallard might go over there. Paper Gains hangs
out a bunch of the time. Jordan and Nemp and everyone. It is a great time. I appreciate you all.
Same time, same place.
Tomorrow, Stock Talk will be here.
I'm excited.
If you guys have questions that you want me to ask Stock Talk,
let me know.
Send them my way.
Last thing I will say as we close this out.
It was Monday.
Normally, we do have Scott on this one,
but we've kind of been a little
wish-washy on stuff on our time and our fault. Scott will still be back on the Spaces. Maybe I
try and get him for a different time sometime this week, but definitely next Monday, Scott will be
back. I love when Mr. Scott Redler comes on the Spaces and shares so much wisdom, and we're
definitely not going to stop that. So if you guys were here for that Monday and kind of didn't get
the chance to see that, it will be back. I appreciate you that. So if you guys were here for that Monday and kind of didn't get the chance to see that it will be back.
I appreciate you all.
Make sure you are following the speakers.
That Wolf account is about to open up a space.
Shout out Sniper,
Monitive and Logical.
If you guys,
one more time,
live free content Monday through Thursday,
three to 5 PM Eastern,
at least follow this account.
Love you and goodbye.
We're going to do a little bit of a hard exit there quickly. So they don't hear the last part.
Insights
P
