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STOCK MARKET TALK | PALANTIR $PLTR EARNINGS TALK
Recorded: Aug. 4, 2025 Duration: 2:00:33Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts highlighted Bitcoin's recent bounce back, signaling a potential upward trend in the market. The anticipation surrounding upcoming earnings reports and the recovery of major tech stocks like Meta and Microsoft further fueled optimism, indicating a growing interest in cryptocurrencies and their potential for growth.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Oh, what is up everyone happy monday august the fourth first monday of august here this summer and uh
here we are power hour on a monday we've uh had a little bounce back day after a couple rough days, Thursday and Friday,
kind of all over the place, but just mostly up and then to the side today. We've got Nasdaq up
1.68% currently, Spy 1.3%. IWM outperforming a little bit, almost up 2% here at the highs of the
day. NVIDIA 3% up today. Microsoft up 2%.
Meta, 3.5%.
Just made a new high of day.
Apple, not near as much love there.
Neither is Amazon, which is red today.
Pretty much everything else, nice bounce back day.
A lot of pockets of value, excitement.
A lot of earnings going on as well today, this afternoon.
I know we have volunteer reporting, HIMSS, MercadoLibre, Exxon, several other names that have been mentioned around these spaces.
And, of course, a huge week of earnings coming up with all kinds of names, all different sectors reporting.
So a lot going on.
We also, on the news front of things, there wasn't a ton of news, but obviously Friday, a lot of the
terrorists went into effect. And then the only thing I heard today really around that, that was
big news was Trump made a little threat towards India about raising some of their terrorists,
which may go along with part of that Apple weakness we saw in the middle of the day today.
But other than that, it's been a bounce back type of Monday, bounce back and go sideways.
We spy the S&P gap below the 20-day, pushing back up above it, hitting the 9 EMA right at the high of day-to-day.
So that's where we're at across the market.
VIX down 13% as well.
Bitcoin this weekend, also over in crypto land, Bitcoin pulled back, hit the 50-day moving average, back-tested the previous high from back in May, and bounced right off of that spot as well.
So a lot of things, doing a little bounce back here on this Monday. I'm interested to see what our panel thinks about what's going on here.
And of course, as always on these Mondays, we have Mr. Red Dog himself. Scott, how are you today, sir?
I'm doing all right. How was your weekend?
It was good. You know, normally I say not long enough, but as a trader, sometimes I get a little
over-ansy and I get ready. Sunday night, I see futures open, get a little dip-eye going, and
I was actually kind of excited to come into this week a little bit here. Scott, what's your take
on the last few days of action
since we last spoke last Monday?
Obviously, a couple gap up and fades,
and obviously the big one on Thursday
and kind of a follow-through day on Friday.
And here we are, bouncing back a little bit.
What's your take?
Well, if you kind of remember last Monday,
it feels like every Monday we have a pretty good focus.
And we were talking about how the market was getting a little thinner or more
narrow.
And I think I said that I called out on power plays.
I was accumulating the UVXY calls just because I didn't know really what I wanted to short
and spy puts haven't really been working.
So I started on Friday and on Monday and tried to stay with positions.
And then, you know, at least on Thursday least on Thursday, technically, if you look at that candle, that candle was a bearish engulfing candle to the downside where the S&P cash opened above $6,409, couldn't hold it.
So that was one little signal to reduce and maybe add to the VIX or whatever.
And then basically closed near the lows and took back four or five days.
So as a trader, you know, that's kind of you want to pare back a little bit.
So if you did so, Friday wasn't as painful.
So on Friday, we sold about half of the UVXY.
But I'm not going to make it like I went cajonies to the wall long and to the close because I didn't.
I was like, OK, you know, I kind of pared down.
I'm in control now i'm not exactly
sure what's going to be next so um i was also looking over the weekend and i was watching
bitcoin bounced and ethereum bounced like you know what like they're going to probably take back
a portion of thursday friday and make it a little bit more difficult but at that point you know i
can't really do much i don't trade futures i just don't want to tease myself because i get up at 445
if i trade all night i'll never sleep and chances are i would have been out of this business a long time ago people like red
dog why don't you trade smb futures i'm like because i'm up at 445 and i can't be trading at
one o'clock in the morning when would i sleep but anyway um so today was probably i would think a
little bit on the frustrating side if you're an active trader just a little bit i would think
most guys in my community covered probably you know half their shorts or if they were trying to make money
short i was just trying to catch a q trade that that happened so i don't think anyone anyone is
short i just feel like people were not as long as it would have been like to been into this gap up
um you had a little bit of time to to buy the spies through 626 if you had that much conviction
for the gap fill.
And now that we've filled the gap, you know, we're above the 21-day, below the 8-day.
I could just see us kind of being very choppy where you kind of have to sell them when they're up, buy them when they're down, look for relative strength, look for the right names.
And, you know, at least they're rewarding the right names.
Like, you know, Meta and Microsoft came out.
Obviously, they were a little extended into earnings, and sold them you know thursday into friday but if you
nibbled on on friday you know today those names are bouncing back pretty well and meta is actually
having a pretty potent one you know nvidia best in breed also up today so like the three names
that you would hope on a bounce back day are up besides you know something that's a little lesser
known like i've been telling you guys about dash for like six months and Dash is at an all time high today.
Wow.
You know, a lot of guys doing really well there.
So there are some names that are still rewarding you for being a stock picker and for looking at relative strength rules.
Some people are scratching their head.
Why is Amazon down?
Why is Amazon down?
I'm not asking any questions.
I had a call spread.
I lost money on Friday. it wasn't a wow report and even if it was typically when there's a great report you have a
good set of options on Jeff starts selling the next day and he screws up your options so at this
point I'm fine with Amazon being out of play for a little while and let it let it sift out I actually
love the action in Google today Google held up up on Friday. Google, I think,
could be more of a focus for traders for the next week or two. I would think it takes out that 197.50
and sees a move if we kind of are choppy back and forth. I think that, I'm sorry, Hood,
they sold it down a little bit just because of the size of the move. I think it repaired itself
really fast. I think there are going to be be we have names that are strong that on days that we're going up
hopefully they'll react well and on days that we're you know down they'll be down a little less
to focus on as a trader and i'm kind of done trying to find the the the rotation trade the
lagger trade all those kind of things because all that seems to do is really cost money
instead of just going with what's been working.
And obviously it works until it doesn't is a whole thing
that we've been saying since, you know, for a long time.
But I just made it too complicated, you know,
trying to buy the XLE or trying to buy even the XBI,
which actually looks a little bit better today.
It's just better to stick with the leaders and stay with what's working until it really shows you that it's not. I got to give a shout out to Logical. Logical gave everybody a huge
winner last week with LC Lending Club. He talked everybody through it, a name that not a lot of
people knew. And the options were up huge for so many guys, and the Alpha
team says thank you, because some of them took it also.
So, there's
definitely, if you do your homework, you do your research,
there are things to do.
We've been up a lot this year, so,
you know, do I think Friday's
low is going to be the low of August?
I really don't know. All I know is that
this was a decent bounce back.
It wasn't feeble. There are
names to go with, so I'm not going to put out a prediction saying the high is in for the year or
Friday's low is going to stick. There's no reason to do that if you trade for a living. You just
got to try and make the right decisions and go to the right things and try and participate in a way
where if you need to get paid monthly or quarterly, you do it responsibly. As far as Palantir after the close, I'm not taking it.
It's right at an all-time high above 160.
I've played this name so many times, and it's been a great go-to name.
But it's a type of setup where guys will say, hey, is it really worth taking it?
It's a high-valuation name.
The report's going to have to be like Blockbuster, and the guide's got to be crazy.
Otherwise, it like wind up just
being like a robin hood where it doesn't do much and then in a few days repairs and goes
um as far as another name that i i like that i got involved in my group really likes is it's
apld um if you want to take a different setup that is off the bean path, applied digital,
you know, had that nice gap up on, what was it, on Friday, came in a little bit and held the eight day and perked up today.
A lot of us have been accumulating this.
It seems like if we could hang around, if you want a little lesser name, a little lesser
known name, I think this one, you know, has the makings of being an outperformer to stick
with if you want a different type of name.
Speaking of some of the different names, with all the things reporting this week, is there anything that really sticks out to you?
I know you mentioned Dash a little bit earlier.
Obviously, we have Palantir, Hems, and Mercado Libre today.
But what really sticks out to you this week that's big on your watch list?
Well, Dash has been a
go-to stock since actually a year ago when it was put on my radar um it's giving a lot of people a
pre-earnings move which is great you know like look at the stock at all-time highs i think they're
reporting on wednesday so last few times dash has reported you know it was a solid report but they
just didn't pay you to take um option strategy into it. So I would say
if you're very active and you're not going to stay in the stock for the next three to six months and
you're in the equity, you know, I mean, if you're in the equity, just stay, stay the course, you
know, but if you're in options and you're playing it for a pre-earnings move, you know, I would turn
it into a call spread here, maybe sell like the two 70s or wait till tomorrow but that might be a little too cute
but overall
Dash has been great and I guess
I'm not trading earnings
right now, there's no reason for it
just the way
I haven't had the best
options earnings season this season, it's cost
me more money to try and
look for those type of plays versus
playing them thereafter when it's costing me more money to try and, you know, look for those type of plays versus playing them thereafter when it's more in
control.
Yeah, absolutely. I got you there. Big picture,
anything changed since last week with where we're at in the market and any,
on the macro side of things?
It just seems like now the narrative will be if, you know,
we get slowed down type of information, finally, they can cut rates in September. You know, they couldn't cut rates. A week ago, the S&P is at all time high and Trump's threatening Powell with his job and wanting a rate. But it just, you know, how could you do that? I know that, you know, the Federal Reserve is not supposed to watch the action in the stock market. But when you have when you have sentiment high and you have stock markets at highs, how do they do it? So if we could be choppy to the downside, which we just
came with almost 3% off the highs in the S&P and 4% in the Qs, then the narrative could change for
cutting in September through the end of the year. And I think that'll be kind of the narrative a
little bit more, which is good. I personally don't think the high is in for the year. And I think that'll be, you know, kind of the narrative a little bit more where, which is good.
I personally don't think the highs in for the year.
And I think that, you know, we can continue into next year.
So I'm just trying to responsibly use my trading accounts to generate money where I feel comfortable.
So now that we had this little, you know, shake up from last week into today, you know, it could be that things rebuild.
You'll see leadership faster.
Not everything is just at highs.
It gives you a better list of names that can continue once they approve they can like on friday if you look at dash dash held the 21 day the s&p closed well below it you know like you what happens is when
the s&p and then the queues get below the eight day you look at what's above it if it gets below
the 21 day you look what's above that and that's how you find you know better stock selection that
move quicker when when you're trading yeah i appreciate you getting us kicked off here scott
let's throw it around the panel a little bit and see uh if anybody else has any thoughts similar
to those uh options mike so that i'm mute there i'm gonna throw it right to you oh man thanks hey scott hey what up mike um and what a what a couple days here um
i i came approach friday today a little differently than i think you did scott i
kind of felt friday was with a follow-through day and um i one thing i noticed quickly on
friday was the names they wanted were the ones that really started bouncing back right away. It was NVIDIA, AMD, Avgo, Palantir, Hood, right? They have a set names that just keep coming back to,
and they just cannot leave these names alone. And my fear over the weekend was we're going to gap
up, and we definitely gapped up today. And this was a short squeeze today, right? They caught
everybody leaning short, thinking we're going to get a big time down follow through. And they
squeezed the hell out of them with this gap up back to the
eight day. And now we've been sitting here since what, 10 o'clock, 1030 this morning. We haven't
really moved on the S&P 500. But they came for the names that have good reports. And I think
that's where I went. I tried a beautiful trade on Microsoft out of the open today. I forgot to,
I wanted meta and I missed it when it finally took off. But those two names were strong today.
Hood had another good day.
Google, good reports, right?
They came running for these names that have had good reports.
They came running back for NVIDIA.
You know, Amazon, Apple, yeah.
Yeah, you know, I don't know what to say.
Apple I'm more worried about than Amazon, to be honest with you.
But I think it's just a market of names, and they're going to keep coming back for those same names. be honest with you but i think it's just it's a it's a name
a market of names and they're going to keep coming back for those same names i'm with you i don't
know i tend to think the low is not in here for the month of august but you know who knows i'm
with you i don't know here you know it could be this market has so much money sitting on the
sidelines it just doesn't know what to do with itself but you know what you don't have to we
don't have to know that like all of a sudden if you accumulated the uvxy on monday or tuesday you know when when it was up big you take off half
you know on on on friday maybe you buy like the names that you spoke about that had leadership
if you felt comfortable just in case we got down i also went pretty fast this morning i went after
nvidia and nvidia you actually were able to buy it after the open and still make money you
know it held that um like went over that 176 50 which was the spot i'm like if you can get above
and stay above friday's high i'll i'll just revisit it there you know so again um so if they
do try and bring us down like if all of a sudden everybody wanted to gap down today and then we
close well today and they suck people in and tomorrow we're lower.
You know, I can see, I've seen that happen a bunch of times too, but I don't think we're going to be down 80 handles, but you can be down 20, 30 handles and pack and fill a little
bit and find good entries also if all of a sudden you feel like you're chasing today.
But you're right.
The names that were supposed to go up today went up today, which is all you could kind
of ask for.
Yeah.
And it's just, you know, at some point they need to spread this out a little bit. Right. I
mean, we're seeing a little rotation here, but it doesn't seem to last. And, you know, so it's,
it's like, you know, can we get off of the same names? Can we find something else? And otherwise
that, that, that, that starts to worry me under the covers a bit when you cannot change, you know,
when you have a dozen names that just keep staying with the same names,
eventually that's a recipe for a problem in the markets, but not today.
And that's something you will watch down the road.
But they also, they are in the RN.
Dash wasn't a name making all-time highs last year.
That's a new leader.
Hood a year ago, who would have thought it would be at 106?
So there are some new names outside of the Mag 7 and some of those,
and every name in the Mag 7 isn't created equal either.
But, you know, I get it.
I get it.
You want to have the small caps, the BIOS, the XLE, and all that stuff.
And I've tried it so many times, and all I keep doing is donating money.
Yeah, and even the semis, right?
It's NVIDIA, it's AMD, it's Avgo.
And the rest of them are dead.
You'd like to see
them you know buy something you know get more involved in some of the other names in these
sectors and i think you know software it's palantir you know outside of palantir you try
and get another name i tried to i took arm a call spread into arm earnings and i lost money
you know and but also amd wasn't always like this amd was probably one of the biggest frustrating
stocks you know from from last year a year and a half all the way down finally it kind of got
reborn in may with a nice gap up that held above that 107 and changes and it's just been a great
trade trend since so we're kind of trying to find the next trend that that you know that ignites and
holds and goes and stays special i I love to find a new trend somewhere
and then be able to massage it and have it act better than the market and stay with it. Because
if you find those early, you make really good money before everyone starts getting there.
But those have been kind of hard to find. Yeah. I think that's what's getting a little
frustrating. But by the way, markets just pop the highs of the day while we're talking here.
And there goes NVIDIA running right back to highs.
Palantir just put an all-time high in as we're going into earnings.
So it's the same.
But otherwise, I mean, there's things to do every day.
And I think that's the most important thing.
If you're like me and me, forget your long-term account.
There's things to do here every day.
The market's giving trades if you're paying attention.
You're willing to just look around a little bit.
And you look for the setups in the morning.
Right.
Someone said they like Calcavo a little bit. You know, it's kind of rebuilding some, you want to talk about a shorted name that
kind of seems like it might be better. That's something, but I don't really like trading that.
Yeah. Yeah. I'm a little personally worried about the foods, you know, the restaurant stocks in this
in the current economy and what's going on and costs going up and seems like you know same store sales in most of these places are our store our
comps are coming down scott do you think it's possible kava was punished a little too harshly
for chipotle's earnings yeah yeah yeah i i'm i definitely think so just you know sometimes these
program traders just you know just come after you with the whole group. And if you could, and if you're good at, you know, no names much better, like something like logical is great at names.
Like if, you know, if all of a sudden a group gets punished and one doesn't deserve to be punished and you could take some pain and wait for the street to figure that out, you could do better.
I'm actually looking at CMG right now at Chipotle.
And I actually did a little red dog reversal today.
For those of you that don't know what a red dog reversal is you know traded below 42 46 which was uh the low of Friday
and came back above it it's really extended down from the eighth day it is a broken name but
today would be like day one first bounce attempt it's a trade right it's a it's a calculated trade
it's trade in the life I just sometimes sometimes it's I tell my guys also but it's a calculated trade. It's a trade in the life. I just sometimes, sometimes I tell my guys also, but it's just a trade in the life.
It doesn't have to be a massive swing trade for three weeks.
Like even like MSOS, I took MSOS options like two, three weeks ago.
I'm like, I don't know if they're going to get the, you know, the safe banking bill in September.
But, you know, I saw that whole thing on Fox Business on how all the celebrities are going after Trump,
trying to pressure them to try and get
the banking bill done and this and that. I'm like,
you know what? I've tried this 170,000
times. I'll try it one more.
This time, it looks like the MSOS
could take back the 200-day
back from the do not trust list.
Trade in the like. Maybe even
today it closes strong. It could be up
30 cents tomorrow.
Just finding what you're comfortable with here. Trade in the light. Maybe even today, close to strong. It could be up 30 cents tomorrow. Yeah.
Just finding what you're comfortable with here.
Exactly.
For me, I'm not actually adding to any longs or buying any new positions right now.
I think I'm going to wait a little bit, but that's my personal feeling that,
yeah, let's see how this trades out over the next couple weeks.
You had the luxury of doing it.
You said you did it on Friday.
So, you know, you don't have to chase.
You got ahead of the game.
That's good.
You know, that helps.
Brian, I want to jump in there a little bit.
I was going to throw it over to him next and see what thoughts he had around this conversation so far.
Sure you were.
So, look, before I jump into this, I rarely get out of California. Like I say,
it usually takes a funeral or wedding to get me east of Vegas. But I'm going to be in Denver on
Monday night and we're hosting a traders meet up there with Chicago Sean from All Stars Charts.
It's open to anybody. There's no selling. There's nothing. It's just
a lot of traders and investors getting together at a really cool brew house to talk markets. So
if you're in Denver, check out my Twitter feed. I think there's a meetup link in there. I'd love to
see anybody that's here out there. So I think last week was an interesting week. And I'll be honest with you. It was a tough week for me because, you know, we had that reversal bar on Thursday.
And I sat there and I looked at my portfolio and I felt like I was too heavy.
And I almost closed out a lot of positions in the after hours, like two or three times.
And I went back and forth and back
and forth and back forth. And I did. And then of course, the next morning we opened up down and I
started to lighten up on positions. And at the end of the day, I had really nothing significant.
I looked through my list. I saw a couple of names that looked like they were holding up. One was Dash, one was
Oklo or Oklo. I never know how you say it. And I thought that Tesla looked like it was at a spot
where it can bounce. It was on the 200 EMA. So I took some small positions in those over the
weekend with the idea that I would try to cash out on them if they popped today. I felt like we were
down two days in a row and we probably were going to get a pop. So on them if they pop today. I felt like we were down two days in a row
and we probably were going to get a pop. So that's what we got today. I lightened up into
the second hour and I'm pretty much flat again. I think the hardest thing for traders and sometimes
investors to get their head around is when markets transition. And the reason why is because nobody ever rings a bell and says,
okay, we're transitioning. It's a slow, ugly process. But every 20% drop starts with a 5%
drop. And so every market transition starts with some key price action. Now, I'm not saying that
the market is transitioning now. I'm saying it could be
transitioning. And that could just be like for August, right? That could just be a pullback,
a reasonable pullback for this month, 3%, 5%. And if that's the case, those bars that we saw
on Thursday and Friday are kind of a warning signal. So we're up big today. And it does feel
like a lot of short covering. I think Mike mentioned that, but I finally did.
I got some names that I thought I could pop for some cash flow today, got out of those,
and now I'm totally fine in just sitting and waiting. Market pullbacks and market bottoms,
they stop incrementally. First, they stop going down, then they recapture levels,
then they recapture moving averages. It's a process, even in the micro. So I'm waiting to see some stability
in the indexes and see them firm up a little bit. And then if they do, I'll start getting
my foot back in the water. I'm also going on vacation next week. So this is one of those
things where we talk about the balance between markets and life, right? Sometimes your life and the markets are out of sync. And even
though maybe the markets are going to start ripping, is it really a good idea for me to
start getting long now while I'm going to be on a family vacation for a week in Colorado? Like,
I don't want to be checking for sales service when I'm up in Vail seeing, you know, are my
positions moving or not? So for me, you know, wasn't real happy about Thursday, Friday, happy about today.
And now I'm just willing to sit and watch and see what happens.
First of all, I think what Wolf said is great.
You know, you have to know what you want to do, how much time you want to allocate and,
you know, doing a few little things in a day two down when the oscillator is minus 70 that that made some sense you know if you didn't buy on friday buying today
into the close because we bounced probably not the smartest idea but sometimes what a lot of
guys do they'll do that like their retracement rules and see how how potent is this bounce
you know did sellers have any control you know and at this point um you know they filled the
gap from Friday.
So one thing would be is if this was a really, really weak market where you weren't allowed
to buy anything, we would not have filled the gap from Friday.
But because the buyers were able to do that and buyers came back to the leaders, it's
telling you this could be more of like a range-bound market where who knows which way the range
will kind of go, but there's still things to do so again buying in the close today because you think you missed today for tomorrow
tomorrow we could be down 20 handles 22 handles and go green and still be in this range but if
you take too much overnight and start down in the hole and we don't bounce in the first 30 minutes
you're going to lose money that and you chased it so you just got to realize what you're doing you know as far as
the type of trade it is and as of right now you know we don't this friday's low doesn't have to
be the low but doesn't mean we have to make a new low in the next two days it could happen next week
after going sideways for a little bit yeah and look you know something today was a great start
if if that really was the flush on Friday.
But as we sit and look at the charts right now, I know we've still got 30 minutes.
Today's candle on the SPX, it's not even above the 8 EMA.
It's just up to the bottom of it.
I'll feel a lot better if we can recapture that 8, and I'll feel even a lot better if we can at least recapture the lows from Thursday.
That was an ugly, ugly bar bar it wasn't technically bearish
engulfing because it didn't you know it didn't close at the low of the day but it had the same
dynamic and that's a big barrier the market's going to have to get through uh and i'd like to
see it stabilize you know into that area before i get too too aggressive yeah it doesn't it doesn't
have to happen today we don't need that huge of a travel range. And we can close here, open down 10 handles tomorrow, go green and go up 15 and then take
it back tomorrow. So again, it's like you said, it's a process and it doesn't have to happen to
us in a certain way. But you're right. All we did is fill the gap, which was step one. Next step is
taking back the eight day and then holding the eight day because we took back the 21 day,
which the market's been pretty much above since April 24th.
So, you know, again, it could be a process of rebuilding,
seeing the leadership, taking time,
and, you know, so traders should take their time also.
You know, something, guys, I just want to add here back in here
that's been bothering me is earnings overall have not been that good
except for a few names.
The semis in general on
another one that guided down today right these semis other than taiwan semi have had bad reports
we've had mixed reports out of the mag 7 tesla was bad amazon was not very good apple great report
but no ai story and guidance unclear you know you look around overall in general earnings most names have been dropping
on earnings you haven't seen those moves up and that's usually to me a little bit of a warning
sign that either their price to perfection here or their earnings guidance is just not enough here
or they're just just not good reports so that's been playing the back of my mind for the last
couple weeks as well yeah and then the market kind of confirmed it on thursday where even they sold off even the good
ones that were too extended exactly and now it's kind of like the act of bears balls in their hands
what could they do with it you know so i'm making i kind of rebuilt also i got out of a lot of things
i got back on sides and caught me a little bit of money to do so but i still had a great quarter
into you know the wishy-washiness.
And now I just feel good that I could pick spots and hopefully make some money, let it add up, and not be in the way in my trading accounts.
You know, one other thing I just want to add here, and this is, it's very anecdotal.
And so it's never a good idea to do anything anecdotal.
But sometimes when we see the anecdotal things come up,
it gives us a little bit of a warning to look at the technicals or pay a little bit more attention.
So, you know, we're seeing pot stocks run, right? We're seeing a lot of really sketchy
derivatives on derivatives run, like a lot of really crappy stuff is running. And oftentimes that signals the end of a move.
And again, I'm not saying crash or anything. I'm saying the end of a move for a time being. So,
you know, we're just that bearish reversal bar. You know, we don't have a lot of volume today
on the bounce back. We got a lot of junkie names running. We had a lot of stocks in the last couple
of weeks that did this jump and dump. I don't like the term gap and crap, so I don't say it,
but big jumps on earnings and then just giving it all back. We've got Amazon red. We've got
Apple red. I told my subscribers last week that we're just a little bit more risk on now.
If you're short term, it was definitely more risk on. If you're intermediate term, not as much. If you're an investor and you're investing for
retirement, who cares, right? Just keep dollar cost indexing. But there are some little puzzle
pieces. There's been some weird moves in the US dollar. So, you know, it's, I don't know,
it's just an uneasy time right now.
That's really good thoughts there.
I don't see him today.
Let's keep going around the panel here a little bit, though.
Wolfie, I wanted to bring you in and see any of the things that were mentioned today,
what your thoughts are around the conversation, the markets, and where we're at.
Anything that's sticking out to you?
And of course, any of these earnings if you're watching this.
I mean, last we talked, what was it?
Thursday, I believe, or Wednesday.
I don't remember which day.
I think it was Thursday.
Fed Day was on Wednesday, correct?
So it was Thursday. Fed Day was on Wednesday, correct? So it was Thursday. What I was looking for was the notable week or what I was looking at was the IWM's inability during PAL, post-PAL, while some of the other indexes regained their PAL losses on the back of Meta.
And Microsoft was notable.
I was looking for some sort of retracement down to the 200-day.
We overshot it early in the morning exceeded my expectations for you know from the
put side um i thought you know chasing chasing bearishness into a weekend is probably not ideal
i covered a lot of it um you know but i've but i think for me i'm like i'm like the guy that
tries to find stuff that isn't you know micro or small cap for the most part,
try to find that mid-cap stuff sometimes.
But I also try to find some of these themes that are working and that could be tailwinds for other similar themes.
you know similar themes uh so these guys were talking about trying to find you know the next
leg or the next you know the next baton passing you take it and but if you take a look at like
some of these names that are like material names for example you know take a look at like mlm which
i've mentioned on the space a couple weeks back uh off the 200 day base there for probably like
two three months at, pretty solid earnings.
BMC got some tailwind on the back of it as well, breaking out today. There's other story stocks,
for example, like in July 27th, I think it was, whenever that space was, I made a joke about
taking a position in AEO for the Sweenweeney bottom it didn't take long for trump to
kind of co-sign her being like a great republican and take a look at that stock up like 20 percent
uh after giving people an opportunity to get back into it uh against that ten dollar level which it
kind of broke out from so i think there are like stories there uh for me personally like some of
these earnings there's a lot of names that have to report here today and tomorrow in particular.
A lot of names that I watch.
Some of the staple names that I've had.
Hymns, for example.
Axon.
Palantir.
Lemonade announces.
Just trying to remember them off the top of my head.
Yum Brands, which give you another, you know, fast food insight into the lower end consumer.
You know, W gave us earnings this morning.
So there's a lot of, like like names that kind of gauge the sentiment
appetite of risk in the next couple of days i think hymns uh and palantir would kind of be if
i put them at the top for some of these retail names outside of like robin hood um and then i
think i think that some of the action on the back of the previous earnings from last week, some of these bigger names, you know, the move after the initial moves kind of like the important thing for me, like, they talked about how Microsoft and Meta, you know, sold off on the back of earnings and give you an entry. I mean, just take a look at like Microsoft, for example, basically sold off to where that prior all-time high level was. Basically, I think the prior all-time high was
like 518, sold off like 520 on Friday. So it kind of gave you, if you're a believer in like
the three-day rule, kind of gave you that three-day rule bottom to trade from against that prior all-time
high and the five-day if you wanted to go that wonky.
So I think from that perspective, like the MAG7 is kind of bifurcated, where you've got some winners currently, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta, and then Google kind of sits in the
middle.
And then you have the other side of the equation where it seems like amazon is entering some sort of uh uh you know some sort of distribution uh maybe some basing for the next
leg or whenever the the uh expensive latina top is over um that's a joke about his wife by the way
don't nobody at me about that but um and then and then you you have Tesla and Apple at the bottom of the barrel. Apple
looked good for like 10 minutes on Friday, Evan, sorry. And then if you just pull up a weekly chart,
that thing looks like it just wants to roll over aggressively. So I think the dispersion is there.
There's rotations happening under the surface, like industry to industry. The last time we talked, I think Godfather brought it to the attention.
I hinted at it, but then Godfather put the metrics on it about how some of the industrials have outperformed in the last several weeks relative to their peers.
Take a look today, for example.
Stock like Johnson & Johnson really outperforming.
Is it the start of something?
Maybe.
I mean, it's at an important level.
But, you know, it's a market kind of that just gives you a little bit for everybody, in my opinion.
It's not the first time I've said this.
It's not like rocket science or anything like that.
But I think, in part, the more you kind of like dumb it down, the more you you have an opportunity to find stuff i think also
kind of not the more important thing to me is not falling falling victim to your biases right so
like it's one thing to have an opinion it's one thing to like state your opinion it's another
thing to take trade on the opinions another thing to be stubborn about it so for example like the
number of the number of times i've heard you you know, UNH as a generational bottom in the last few months, that clearly hasn't played out in the last few weeks, especially last week when it broke through that 250 level.
what themes could play out.
Last week when we were talking, I think Emp, you mentioned it,
when there was a headline that came out
saying basically that MP deal won't be the
only one and there are more to come.
We got that pop on some of these other material names,
these precious material names.
So I think that's something.
There's other things like take a look at Comscope, for example,
COMM reported good earnings.
And then they came out and said they're going to sell their connectivity
and cable solution this morning.
And the stock's up like 75% intraday or like 90%, I don't remember off the top of my
head, but stock basically doubled, let's say almost in a day. Like there's like, there's
themes out there. And it's a little bit for everybody. If you're like one of these people
wants to find this scarcity stuff or some of these sum of parts things, that for you,
if you're someone that wants to trade you know uh large cap growth there's you
know you got these guys mentioned like uh nvidia but at the same point in time take a look at
something like oracle which is a little bit a little bit more of a you know slower slower
concept movers one of my one of my positions um it gives you the opportunity to participate on
the back some of this ai stuff without having to be completely you know uh choosing sides about who's gonna win which chip which ship's gonna
happen and what's gonna happen unless you kind of like participate um and then there's other you
know there's other other conduits to it as well there's like some of the software stack these
guys talk about from time to time and so i just think you got to kind of be flexible i think we're kind of like off the back of the the pal stuff last week we're kind of like right back to where we kind of broke
down a few days ago it's like slip a coin is it gonna go up go down i don't know flip a coin
but i think the more that you can try to find names that could move idiosyncratically or move uh independent of you know the overall index
um which you know there's several names that are mentioned on this space let whoever wants to talk
about whatever they want to talk about talk about it uh the more the more that dispersion or that
that like bifurcation in the market kind of benefits you. And I feel like that's the best way to kind of go at it.
From a hedging perspective, I know, I think it was Scott
that was talking about how he went along the UVX
because the puts on the S&P weren't working.
Yeah, I think that's another interesting part
about this market that's kind of melted up
and kind of ripped people's faces off.
You've kind of been rewarded
not carrying that drag, right?
But now that we've kind of broken that trend
that we started back in May,
we're into a five-day into the the 20 day, see how that plays out in
the next couple of days. It's not, it's not something that I'd like go out and chase. Like,
I don't think chasing the volatility side is the way to do it. I think there are pockets where,
you know, gold will outperform. For example, I mentioned that when we talked last week with
Mish, you know, on a relative basis, basis gold relative to silver without like its lowest point
i think at least in the year but it's the lowest point in several years so it's like a reversion
setup the dollar the positioning on the dollar got to a point where it's two offsides one way
and it gives you opportunity to it gave people an opportunity to hedge you know by going long dollar
um and still kind of get that that uh that you know synthetic hedge basically so there's like
different ways to do it I don't think it's like it's not like you're you know the last few years
where if I felt like you know I wanted to hedge something I'd go out and buy VIX or if I wanted
to hedge something I'd go out and short the short the S&P all of that being said obviously you guys covered go into like a little
bit of a seasonality period here and uh in the mid-august with like a a quiet period for the fed
there's no fed meeting you got to kind of push it out to jackson hole and then september which is
like i think seasonally the worst month on record you know it to me with that with that in the in the
in the you know in the, facing you up front,
you kind of have to be a little bit more selective with how you hold stuff
and how you trade stuff.
So I'm trying to look for, again, some of these, you know, schemes that are,
like the materials thing that came up last week,
some of these, like, scarcity plays,
some of these ways to participate the ai thing without owning
the chips and you know in terms of like uh in terms of other names down down down channel look
for like distress stuff that could have asymmetric asymmetric risk reward um you know that's kind of
like how i'm playing it but you know other than, if you want to like dig deep and do all the research and try to find valuations, that always works as well.
But I'm kind of rambling now, so I'll stop there.
The last name, though, that I am paying attention to on an earnings front is Oddity Tech, ODD, just because of like how unique their product is.
And I want to see if like there's any sort of continued adoption,
you know, from their consumers,
their like custom makeup thing.
And I just kind of want to pay attention
to see if there's any sort of like continued adoption there.
I feel like we generalize the consumer a lot of times,
and I think that's for the most part correct.
But I think sometimes there are these pockets
where we can kind of get the insight. An that you know mike's referenced a couple times now
i mean when chipotle reported their quarter last week and they talked about the consumer they kind
of broke it up and they said the low-end consumer is not coming anymore to their stores at least
so just kind of want to pay attention to some of these names that kind of have
you know broken up uh insights into some of the consumer stuff.
Appreciate that rundown there.
Wolfie, Scott, any thoughts around that piece?
No, I think we all like have been doing this a long time.
So I feel like everyone's pretty responsible in the advice that they give.
So I agree, you know, you know, there are things to do if you look for them.
You just have to make sure you're careful and, you know, you know what you're looking for and how you're looking for it and know what you're expecting.
You know, there's a lot of things working on a lot of different time frames.
There's a lot of instruments out there.
Just make sure you know what instrument you're doing and not, you know, just taking someone else's call.
I remember on Friday, actually, you know, I accumulated some of the UVXY calls.
I said it's an accumulator. I'm like, I'm not buying it here. call i remember on friday actually because you know i accumulated some of the uvxy calls i was
i said it's an accumulate i'm like i'm not buying it here and i started buying it on friday of the
week before small and i and i got into it and then finally um you know i think i was done buying it
a little bit on on tuesday and then on friday when it was up a bunch and the options were going so
one's like this is the worst instrument ever to play for a down move.
And I was like, okay.
I'm like, the options are up 70% from the worst buy, let alone the best buy.
What did you play to the downside?
Well, I'm like, come up with something better.
Learn something.
Go figure it out.
You know, maybe the spy puts actually worked better on Friday.
Yes, for the first time since in two months.
But this is the first time I've been in this thing for four days.
And you're going to complain that you're actually making money on a down day and you're out of some of your lungs.
I might do some of your own homework.
So anyway, the advice there is definitely take a look at what you're doing and why you're doing it.
Don't just take anyone else's advice.
And if you're going to do so and blame other people for what you're in you're never going to make money never going to last longer than whatever your lucky
streak is just in general um i actually i'm while i'm while i'm sitting here i i i bought more of
this umac you know which is at umac i kind of uh played it back in the day that like the the drone
names are intact obviously this morning on the 630, everyone pointed out JLBY is the best one,
which it's kind of cool to see that even a name like that that went sideways.
JLBY put a little high in on, what was it, July 17th.
It's been going sideways since.
They let a stock-specific name come out in news.
I guess they like the fact that they were doing an acquisition.
They don't need to raise money so they're financially solid.
And look at the move in JLBY. so if you were in the leader great i wasn't in i i stopped
training that because i didn't think that concept names can go up so you know i connect that to the
dots of umac that i know did a money raise right around here a while ago i'm like you know what so
i bought i bought it at 9 30 just as a trade just because it's it it has the potential to do something different versus where you know in the support side of the chart but you know you have to be able to go back to
things at the right time when the market gives you a little bit more clues that maybe it's the
right time you know versus when you think it's the right time somebody just pointed out achr which
also hurt me a little bit uh you know because i didn didn't, I, you know, look at that move ACHR had.
It went all the way to the highs.
And then on July 18th, it broke below that low.
And I didn't, I really just was thinking we're going to make new highs.
And I didn't, you know, get out of it enough and whatever.
It's just a day in the life.
Another trailer, just a day one potential.
But I don't even want to talk about that one.
But, you know, the group, J-O-B-Y,
was the leader, and they're letting it make a higher high
today after a consolidation, so shorts get a little nervous
in the catch-up ones, or the ones that aren't as good.
We have a couple FinTwit favorites reporting
after the close. We're now like 10 minutes away from the market closing.
I know you actually have to go in and do your final rip here, so
we appreciate you joining in. You watching any of these
names coming up after the close today?
I'm going to watch them. I'm not
in them. I feel like there's been
so much money made in Palantir
that to buy it here at an all-time
high when it's got the valuation,
you could be right and wrong. You could
play a call spread right now like a
165 by 175.
It could be up seven points and you lose money tomorrow.
I'm not that interested.
But we'll see.
We'll see.
If Palantir is just a good and they sell it down,
chances are some of the higher valuation ones might be sold down too
because it's just trades and sympathy.
I think my biggest concentration right now, I hate to say it, I don't even know how it happened, but it's just trades and sympathy. I think my biggest concentration right now,
I hate to say it, I don't even know how it happened,
but it's Robinhood.
Robinhood, look at that chart.
It looks really, really solid.
It rebuilt.
The rapport was great.
I think that there's a good chance this time
they're not going to get snubbed by the S&P 500.
Hopefully, I think this Friday or next Friday,
maybe they get the news.
So 113 is the all-time high.
I'm thinking that maybe this could be a play.
So I'm doing it the way I feel comfortable
by buying the $1.10 calls for next Friday.
Some guys are going out to September and buying the $1.13.
But those are just two more things
that I don't have to have the earnings risk.
And if Palantir is down because it's not enough,
a name like Hood, not say it's the same sector whatsoever.
It's not.
They just kind of air in a basket that I'm comfortable enough to buy more tomorrow there
because it is the same but different.
So you have to know what's happening and know what you're in.
So this way, you know what you need to know for the next day.
Yeah, no, I think it's very fair to say those two names have become linked.
Yeah.
There's a couple other in that category, but those seem to kind of be the leaders.
I don't know exactly what I'd call it.
Maybe it's like FinTwit favorites, but there seems to be like the open doors of the world
and then the real companies that have kind of turned into these big ones.
And maybe they are overvalued at this point, and we'll talk about what they go into the future,
but there definitely seems to be that basket.
Hims and Hers, I don't know where we put that one.
SoFi2, MercadoLibre.
Some of these names are borderline between just
FinTwit favorites buying them up
and just really great companies underneath.
Right.
I got to go back to the office for the close.
All right.
Good luck.
Good luck into the close.
And just, you know, again,
don't have that FOMO where if you missed out today, you're buying into the close because you think we'll be up tomorrow and
get spun around i've seen that happen way too many times and just don't short the close because of
last thursday's outside day no if you're short here where would be the next spot that might be
some trouble that you might have to trade around and no if you buy here you know what could you
handle where we are in the morning and and base off of what you can handle and what you can do
versus what, you know,
what you feel like you're missing out on.
All right, guys, gotta jump. Good luck.
Emp, over to you.
Yeah, we appreciate Scott. Make sure you've gone
in and gave him a follow.
And, yeah, here we are.
What, eight, we'll call it eight minutes from the close here.
Sniper, I know that you like to jump in
and give some of the numbers around the earnings
that we'll be watching here in just a few minutes.
So I'm going to throw it over to you if you're around
and see if you've got any of those.
I know a couple of them had some outsized moves it sounded like earlier. Yeah. Can you hear me all right? I got you. Awesome.
Yeah. So we were talking about it earlier, but I'm going to go over it again, but pretty much
the big three that everybody cares about. These are these hyper growth names is Palantir Technologies,
Hims and Hers Health and Mercado Libre. As far as Palantir goes, we're looking at a $16.13
move, 10.06%. When we look at our previous reactions, it's always been a crazy one.
Last quarter is a minus 12.05%, plus 23.99%, plus 23.47%, plus 10.38%. And since the last earnings report Palantir is up 29 point 65% this earnings report Palantir is coming in with 3 million
78,000 773 open interest every single quarter pretty much has been increasing in premiums going into Palantir earnings for quite a while now
Just about as long as I can remember to be honest
When I look at him's and hers health earnings the other big one that a lot of people are looking at
Our implied move is not as big there, but a nine dollar and 35 cent move or 14.36 percent
um excuse me i meant it's bigger um but our previous reactions here are plus 18.12 percent
uh minus 22.32 percent uh minus 0.58 and minus 5.38 percent%. Since the last report, we could see HIMSS has had a monstrous quarter up
55.54%. Coming into this earnings report with 906,107 open interest, also continuing to grow
in premium. For the third one, that's absolutely just fascinating and some crazy numbers just to even look at MercadoLibre. Our implied move over here is $165.39
or 6.9%. In our previous reactions, we could see 6.54, 7.09%, minus 16.29%, and plus 10.59%.
Since the last report, MercadoLibre is only up 5.92% pretty much at the same exact spot
open interest is $31,516
but again don't misread that
that's a lot more premium than you'd anticipate
because these are very expensive contracts
cool
appreciate the thoughts there
we are 6 minutes from the close
most of these numbers should be coming out
401-405pm.m. Eastern.
Watch out there.
I did see we were joined by Matt.
I think we got you up here.
You got to unmute in the bottom left.
There we go.
How you doing, Matt?
Thank you, Wolf, and thanks for having me on, guys.
We are so excited about the Palantir earnings.
Despite valuations being a bit stretched,
we think that they're really going to have to hit
everything. Otherwise, we'll potentially see some negative price performance.
But what's been nice on the ETF side, what we do here at Granted Shares is we offer leveraged ETFs
two times the daily performance. And we're actually starting to see some inflows into
Palantir this year. I mean, this today.
So we've got some positive pricing and buying here in our ETF, which is a nice sentiment from retail and institutional traders.
How does this compare to some of the other ones going into it?
My guess is the Palantir people are really excited, but it's had quite the run up into this.
Obviously, the numbers need to be really perfect. The numbers are going to have to be next to perfect.
And I believe that if we even just hit expectations, we could see some negative
price performance because of that. But there's a lot of really exciting things that they can
release that would potentially bring us to the next leg. I mean, one of the things that I'm excited to hear more about is this AIP adoption metrics
and seeing kind of what those conversions are like and what new clients we could potentially
see from there and revenue growing.
But relative to other quarters, we are seeing a little less purchasing power than we have in our ETF PTIR
relative to other quarters beforehand. So it's really exciting, though, to still see
people optimistic on what's going to happen with earnings.
Yeah, we are only like 10 minutes away from the, well, 10 minutes away from all these
numbers come out, about four minutes from the close.
Feel free to jump in on any part of this conversation we have coming up here.
Yeah, and I just want to tell people as well, I sent some people invites.
Once these numbers come out, it takes us a second.
If you want to talk for a second so I could change the title, Live Earnings.
And if you want to talk for a second so I could change the title,
Live Earnings.
I know we got, what, three minutes here, just under three minutes.
I do want to just say, Stock Talk, I'm sure we'll give a full rundown here shortly,
but shout out to him for that genius.
I saw that had a really nice pop today.
Yes, yes, yes, genius sports.
You know, I've been, yes. Genius Sports. You know, I've been
yeah, backtalk. Actually, we are getting to the close. I do want to ask you a question. No, I want to ask you a question on
this. Melly is is one you've talked a lot about Amazon about
their international kind of e commerce segment. And you've been
kind of excited about the expansion there. And the product
Libre is is a South American e-commerce name.
Even like the Sea Limiteds of the world,
some people are going towards Grab in different ways.
The general theme of international e-commerce,
stuff like this seems to be one that's pretty strong.
It sounds like, it feels like MercadoLibre
would have been a name you've looked into before
and have some thoughts on.
Those numbers should be out close to 401pm.
Is there anything there?
Like obvious visibility and obvious runway and e-commerce is one of them.
Cloud is another one of them.
There's a few of these themes where they're hyper relevant.
They're sexy themes.
They have, you know, current investment.
They have obviously infrastructure
expansion. So you have all the tailwinds you need for an industry to grow. But the thing a lot of
people don't realize about e-commerce and cloud is that the penetration power is still very high.
Like people in North America have a North American lens on these industries, right? Like we think of e-commerce
like, oh, it's saturated. Like I already order everything online, but that's true for Americans,
but that's not true for the world, right? You still have over half, well over half,
I think it's over 60% of retail still occurs in person, right? And on the cloud side,
you still have most cloud storage
happening on premises
and not in the cloud,
most data storage.
So both of those trends are like,
they are going to capture
the rest of that market share.
It's just a matter of time.
Like retail, yeah,
there's a couple of areas
like furniture shopping,
apparel shopping,
maybe home goods shopping, like
accessories and things like that.
Outside of a handful of industries like that, you just don't need brick and mortar retail.
It's just not necessary, especially with AI now.
And like people can, you know, view products in 3D and on video and, you know, match the sizing with a reference point
in real life. Like now that you can do all of that online, it's just becoming less and less
necessary. So yeah, e-commerce is a huge global trend. Not enough people pay attention to the
runway that exists internationally. And yeah, MercadoLibre is a huge beneficiary of that.
Most e-commerce companies have suffered from poor management um an inability to really capture
consumer data and refine it well amazon obviously mastered that and mercadolibre has done a good
job of that as well but outside of amazon and mercadolibre are the global leaders in e-commerce
like there there are really no peers how much of the what part of the world i know them for
south american what other parts of the world is, is million? Is it mostly just South America? I think they have talked in the
past about expansion to Africa and parts of Southeast Asia as well. But then in Southeast
Asia, you have grab who is the pretty dominant player. So there are regional sort of entities
here that exist, but,
you know,
competition is competition.
And sometimes you can erode the market share of those regional entities.
If you do a good enough job logistically,
which is what Amazon has done in their international markets.
And so,
yeah,
logistics is really the way you displace your competitors and e-commerce.
And some people are better at it than others.
And Amazon,
Amazon and Mercado Libre are both excellent at it.
I really like MercadoLibre as a company.
In fact, I wanted to own it a few years ago.
And I just fumbled my entry and then never looked back and tried to catch it on a quarter.
I mean, that happens sometimes.
It's just a stock that I never got to own that I wanted to own.
But I think they're excellently run and a solid company.
I'll also be really interested in BWXT earnings after hours because that'll give a good
pulse on the nuclear industry.
Obviously, a lot of SMR
stocks out there are
trading really well. A lot of them report
this week, too. Yeah, they don't have any earnings
but BWXT does.
What do they do?
What about CEG?
They are a very, very important
company because they are practically the only provider of nuclear reactors to the Department of Defense.
And when you think of Virginia-class submarines that the United States military runs, BWXT's reactors are mission critical to Virginia-class nuclear submarines.
They're also mission critical to all Navy and Army nuclear programs. It is a very
entrenched provider and contractor for the U.S. government, for the U.S. Navy particularly,
but for the U.S. Army as well. And yeah, they're an excellent company. I used to own it. It used
to be one of my higher conviction names in my nuclear basket. Frankly, I probably still would
want to own it. But all those names have doubled tripled
quadrupled the last few years and i owned a lot of them and so i had to sell some of them you know
i still have centrist but bwxt i owned from like the 60s and 70s and doubled down in the low hundreds
and then it ran to like 150 so like i just had to get off yeah i had too much size so i don't own
it anymore but i do love that company. I think an excellent company.
Maybe one of the best nuclear companies.
They're definitely in the top three, in my opinion.
This is Nick Cap University.
We should be getting
PLTR Palantir out in
three minutes or so. Mercado Libre
as well.
There's a lot of nice reports that'll give
some pulses on industry.
Vertix.
I got Mercado should be out now.
I got Mercado numbers.
Actual EPS
$10.31.
Expected $11.89.
Revenue $6.79
billion and revenue expected
was $6.66 billion.
Beat by 2% on revenue.
Stock's down 8%, but it doesn't trade a whole lot in after hours.
Also not to be a smart ass, but they operate all the way up to Mexico,
all throughout Central America as well.
Yeah, we said that.
You said South America.
And then Mexico.
Yeah, South America.
Because Amp talks about them a lot.
They operate all through all the regions south of the United States.
Half of the small businesses around me use Melipago,
which is like Mercado Pay or whatever you want to call it.
It's point of self.
I've seen Axon as well.
What's that stock doing?
Up about 1%.
EPS was a beat.
$212.
$1.46 was expected.
Revenue $669 million on revenue.
Wall Street was expecting closer to $640 million.
All right, Palantir people and the IMs people,
we're getting up to your moment.
Can Palantir continue it?
You know what?
I'm going to say the answer that no one else is gonna is gonna be able to say up here
i'm gonna say yes i'm gonna say palatier up five percent following this watch out maybe i just
jinxed you all ptir would be up uh ten percent if if palatier gets up ten percent right here we got
three big booms coming right in your ear right by the way i pinned the chart if anybody hasn't
seen this glorious chart and evan i'm pretty sure we were the first people
that talked about PTIR on X
because we were talking about it the day
that this thing launched.
This is 11 months.
Look at the chart.
1,500% in the past year.
Glorious.
Up like 10% today.
All right.
Someone wants to keep an eye on that penalty
or stock move.
Initial reaction was up 5%,
but here we go. Revenue of 733 is the US. $1 billion. They got $1 billion. EPS was 16 cents. Guys, stop. EPS was 16 cents being expectations of 12 cents. Now you can go.
Beating expectations of 12 cents.
Now you can go.
We were just up 7%.
We broke 170 right here.
We dropped back a couple percent, but still up 5% at the moment.
Keep an eye on this.
We are moving around a fine.
Okay.
Yeah, revenue again.
$1 billion beating expectations of 939 million.
EPS of 16 cents beating expectations of 12 cents.
End of the quarter was $6 billion in cash.
Rule of 40 score
they're saying was at a 94 um palantir sees revenue next quarter they raised it or for the
fiscal year to 4.14 to 4.15 billion they had previously seen between 3.89 to 3.9 billion so
they raised their full year guidance on talent um i got the hymns numbers uh our revenue is 544.83
million expected 552.05 eps 17 cents expected 16 cents slightly missed on revenue
that stock has been running down 12 volunteer No, it's down 12% and yeah, yeah, yeah that you miss revenue where that stock was that that actually kind of makes sense
Yeah, nice nice solid move on palantir so did someone before just say they expect it to be up
5% tomorrow?
That'd be crazy.
God, HIMSS is getting brutalized.
Oscar Health probably moving lower too with it.
I want to see some more of these Palantir numbers.
Palantir total revenue
fiscally regenerated.
All right.
Is there anything else here?
Amateurs post other earnings
before the Palantir.
They got to know
this is what they care about
uh net income operating income gross profit revenue okay now i don't see too many more
interesting stuff there palantir earnings calls at 5 p.m eastern so we will keep an eye on that
one initial move is up about three percent i heard you say the hymns there but i didn't get
the chance to actually fully digest what you were saying there. EPS was 17 cents, being an expectation of 14 feet, but the problem
was the revenue. 545 is what they reported. 550 is what Wall Street wanted. So not the largest of
misses, but anything for this name, like we like to talk on these spaces, look left.
You look left on the hymns, it's not looking so
good. Well, it's looking great is what I'm saying.
So that makes it a little difficult for the earnings.
Palantir, you also look left.
Palantir also
guided
981. They guided up to
1.08.
Yeah, 1.08
area. So
it's like a 40- ish 30 ish million guidance raised there just doing quick math in
my head you should find out also by the next quarter for palantir what the initial exercise
is going to be on that army software contract um you know when you were when you were saying that by the way uh
raytheon got a 50 billion dollar one there seems to be some difference there seems to be something
new going on with these government contracts that i don't think we fully know it will we
i'll explain it i'll explain it so what palantir received is called a consolidation of existing
contracts so there were 75 i think the headline said 75,
but I went through the paperwork is more like 79 or 80.
But there's these individual line items for software awards
that the Army already had out.
They added like 23 awards to that list
and then provided the consolidated prime contracting status to
Palantir. So what that means is, is that Palantir has the option, if capable of being the prime
contractor on all $10 billion of those software contracts. However, however, in reality, it will
play out like this. The army will choose every year over the next 10 years what portion of that 10 billion they want to exercise based on their needs.
Then Palantir will decide which of those line items they can fulfill internally and which of those line items they will have to subcontract out,
subcontract out, which is very standard for military contracts, for those that follow
which is very standard for military contracts for those that follow military contracts.
military contracts. What will likely happen is Palantir will receive a few billion of that 10
billion, and a few billion of that will be subcontracted out. That's what's likely going
to happen. Is it still a good thing? Yes, it's still the biggest software award in U.S. Army
history. And the 50 billion contract that you're referring to is entirely different. That's for munitions, parts.
That's a hardware contract.
And again, same thing.
That does not have to be exercised in full.
A lot of times when people look at...
But the general concept of it,
that was not something I'd seen before of them bringing together that prime kind of...
That's a new thing, right?
Or maybe it's not been done in the last five years.
It's not common
is what you're trying to say,
I think.
Right.
Yeah, basically what I'm saying
is since I've started watching this,
the Palantir one,
maybe I've seen,
I've never seen the $50 billion.
Do you know what an ID IQ is?
If you didn't give me the slang there,
I might,
but at this point in time,
no, I do not.
It's always affected by the slang
in contracting, but it means an indefinite
quantity contract. Okay. So what it means is, is that the army will say, Hey, we might need
$50 billion of parts over this period. So we're going to award you a $50 billion IDIQ contract,
but that depends on what portion of the contract the army decides to exercise.
That's why it's called an indefinite quantity contract, because you don't know how much
you're going to deliver.
This is how most military contracts are treated.
So like some people will see it like a $5 billion contract for a $2 billion company.
And they're like, oh, my God, the stock should double.
And I'm like, no, it's an IDIQ.
And the company is not going to be able to fulfill the IDIQ without raising an additional $1 billion for CapEx and subcontracting out $2.5 billion of the total award to companies that they need
to fulfill the delivery. So it's like, these things are nuanced. A lot of times, that's why
people mistrade defense awards, because they don't understand. They're like, oh, it's a $12
billion award. Like, oh my my god that's more than the
three-year revenue of this entire company shouldn't the stock explode and then the stock goes up two
percent and they're like huh i don't get it and that's why because most of those contracts are
idiq most of those contracts are not nearly fully exercised you know there's like a 12 billion
dollar contract that expired last year for virgin Virginia class sub maintenance and the Army or the US Navy only exercised $4.2 billion of it. It's a $12 billion IDIQ contract. So, yeah, that's in a nutshell. That's the very basics of military contracting and why it's not as it appears when you look at it. Again, that's the very basics. There's more nuance to it than that but um yeah that's an
explanation to your question good question i feel like maybe some of the dms i've gotten over the
last couple days thank you thank you um we do have uh yeah palantir pulling back a little bit here
but uh ptr is up 7.5 so my guess is palantir is up like 3.5, something like that in the after hours.
So still holding in pretty well.
They posted a graphic about, I know we talked about the rule of 40.
They talked about the rule of 80 Frontier.
Their own graphic has NVIDIA at 122% better than them.
So, you know, you can take that with what you will,
but Palantir,
put out the rule of 80.
They have five names on here.
The five names are Nvidia,
Palantir,
Eli Lilly,
Taiwan,
Semiconductor,
and Visa.
I don't know.
Something interesting.
Meta's right outside of it.
The master car.
Like these are monster report.
Yeah.
Stock up or down.
Um, they reported seven 64 or seven 12, $1.02 EPS versus $7.79.
They're raising their guidance as well.
Great report.
Stock up.
What do you think Peter Thiel is doing right now?
Dancing probably.
Yeah.
Dancing somewhere in the room.
Probably always dancing, dude.
He doesn't lose.
He literally does not lose. Everything he you invest in just goes to the moon so yeah
Peter I saw something recently that they were doing there was a couple big Tim
and Joe Lonsdale or something we're back yet I remember if Peter Thiel so So you a big BMNR fan?
Is that what I'm saying?
No, I think all the treasury companies are stupid, honestly.
They're getting close.
I haven't fully looked too deep into all this stuff.
They're MNAV or whatever.
So I think the amount of Ethereum or whatever they're holding compared to it is like $30 or something, $29.
to it is like $30 or something, $29, and the stock is at $33, $34.
And the stock is at $33, $34.
So it's actually kind of closed off or gotten closer to the amount of Ethereum they actually
hold.
Yeah.
I mean, I get the whole people trying to arbitrage the MNAV thing and like, you know, I get it.
You know, these MSTR lovers that, you know, think the stock's the best thing since sliced
bread.
And then you have, you know, your Ethereum side of it.
I get it i just also don't get it because you know i don't see the reason
these things should be trading at any premium to mnav at all i get that people want like leverage
and they want volatility and like these things are the promise of volatility but i just don't
see the reason why any of them are trading at a premium because when the markets crash and they
will crash they always crash like half of these companies are not going to be able to operate financially you know like
they're just not going to be able to if bitcoin falls to 50k or whatever in a market crash or
60k or whatever 70k whatever you think the floor is bitcoin collapses in a market crash with the
rest of the market like and you're a company that has very little operating leverage,
very little profitability in your core business, and you're dumping all of your money into Bitcoin
and holding it because you've painted yourself as a Bitcoin treasury, you're fucked when the
market crashes. You will have to liquidate, in some cases, these companies have to liquidate
all of their assets. Real quick, that was quite the shift. I like the Peter Thiel connection.
I wanted to get Matt's thoughts on the kind of the earnings numbers that we actually got in the reaction we saw here.
I mean, so far on the reaction side, at least on our ETF, we've already traded around 20% of today's volume just in the last 10 minutes.
So people are actively trading in this after-hours market right now.
It's really exciting.
I would agree.
And I'm sure, listen, I mean, with it being upside,
people are really into it.
What do you think of them smashing those numbers
and especially that U.S. revenue?
I mean, Palantir to us is behind Microsoft and NVIDIA.
We kind of consider them a leader in the AI space.
And we're just in the second to third inning of AI.
With their U.S. commerce and their ability to really just open up new industries and just completely disrupt the way that we currently operate, we don't really see Palantir stopping.
We think that in the next three to five years, this could be over a trillion dollar company.
Stock talk, you see this going at trillion?
I mean, they are executing. They are executing. You can't take that away from them. Stock is
expensive. Yeah, obviously, but a lot of stocks are expensive
Right now, especially the market leading stock so I don't think that's any reason to try to to try to short it, but yeah, they're executing and
You know, they have this niche where it's really hard to compete with them and and their government services side of their business is becoming
Sort of an uninvatable moat. I mean,
you can't really like the, the, the contract they secured, the consolidated contract they
secured with the U S army, um, is rare for a reason because it's very, very hard to find,
um, contractors, prime contractors that can fulfill that broad of a range of requirements. It's really, really hard to do
that. And there's very few companies in the world like Lockheed Martin. They're a prime contractor
for a reason because they have a very, very widespread business. You look at General Dynamics,
right? When it comes to the US Navy, General Dynamics, it receives 20, 30, 40, 50 billion
dollar contracts all the time. But even they can't fulfill all of them directly and internally, right?
Like they subcontract out of companies like Huntington.
But in Palantir's case, when it comes to their software contracts, if you go through Palantir's previous software awards, there have been many awards where they didn't do any subcontracting at all.
They just handle the entire software protocol internally.
So that does put them in a unique position to win more military awards.
It really does.
And the bears are not going to like that because it's going to continually give this stock fresh catalysts.
And that makes like when a stock's expensive, it usually gets inexpensive when the catalytic environment becomes dry.
And that's going to be hard to do for Palantir.
It's going to be hard to rob them of the catalytic environment because in the software side of things, when it comes to military contracting, they really have no peer on the software side.
And so it's putting them in this pole vault position where I wouldn't be surprised to see Palantir sign another multibillion dollar contract in the near future.
And then another multibillion dollar contract after that, at a certain juncture, they may become the prime provider for software for not only the U.S. Army, but the U.S. Navy, other Department of Defense initiatives, special ops. Like that's
a pretty wide range of responsibilities and it could be worth a lot of money. So, yeah, I don't
think Palantir is a stock you get in the way of here. Management is executing well. It's really,
really hard to sort of forecast a slowdown in their business because
of how black box all of their services are. You don't know exactly what they're doing
for the government with all these new software initiatives. And so because of that, it's really
hard to say, hey, you know, there's going to be a lack of visibility in Q3. That's a good time to
short the stock. If you're a bear, it's going to be hard to do that. So this stock, I think you
either stay long if you're long or you stay out of the way if you're negative on it or you think it's expensive,
because this is the type of thing that's going to run you over with a fresh catalyst. So
expensive stocks can stay expensive if they remain in a catalyst-rich environment.
Expensive stocks that get less expensive is when the land know, the land gets dry, you know, and you don't have any new, interesting,
sexy things on the table to drive the stock to the country.
Fed President Dali says we may need more than two rate cuts.
I don't know if this is 2025, but that's what I'm seeing this, this headline.
I mean, I would, I think that would imply 2025, right?
He said we may need to do fewer
than two rate cuts. The more likely
thing is we need to do more.
Ah, okay. So he's saying on balance
the risk is for more cuts. Yeah.
Risk of the upside. I agree with that.
I believe Fed's Dally is a she
if I'm not wrong.
Fed Dally is what?
A she.
Oh, yeah.
I think it's Daly and I think it's Mary Daly. Yes, she is yeah. I guess it's 2025.
I think it's Daly and I think it's Mary.
Yeah, Mary Daly. Yes, she is she. Sorry if I said he.
Yes.
No, it was Emp who prompted you there.
It's one for Team Stocks on Space as hosts.
Why did I get thrown into the bus?
I didn't give gender.
Vimeo is up 25%.
You did? You said he.
Vimeo, really?
They beat earnings by 500%.
But that's not always real.
Normally it's either one-time
spends or something.
If the stock's up 20%, it's probably real.
Sees
EPS of
4 cents. Wall Street was expecting
0 cents, is what it was.
So there you go.
So it's not real.
Revenue of 104 million, missing expectations.
Guided next quarter, 106 million.
Looks like Wall Street was expecting 107 million.
Stock's up 30% now.
There's something missing that I have not seen
in the numbers I just read off there.
There wasn't something in commentary or something,
I don't know, but that stock is ripping.
And there's good volume on it, too.
Damn, dude, I used to own that thing.
I think it was earlier last year.
Maybe it was earlier this year.
I think that was this year.
I remember you talking about it.
Was it this year?
Yeah, it might have been this year.
I don't remember.
I've been trading so many stocks in the last two years.
Logical was in this one.
I mean, maybe.
So Wall Street was expecting it to have negative EPS, so maybe it's a big shock of them posting a positive EPS I mean
the main the real value there is their video data so I imagine maybe they made
some commentary about monetizing that an AI thing that probably is why but I
don't know every short interest problem and actually there is department, election director's appointments.
No, that's not going to be anything.
I don't know.
Anyway, I'll get into some other stuff then if we're past the earnings.
I think we are mostly right.
I think we got a couple more seconds or two here on this one.
And really exciting.
I'm just seeing this now.
For Palantir, U.S. commercial revenue jumped up by 93%.
That is a phenomenal way for them to diversify away from just all their government contracts.
This is really exciting.
Yeah, I agree.
Because that was part of the worry, right, Stock Talk?
Yeah.
Was that they were too reliant on the government? Yeah, that was part of the worry right stock talk was that they were too reliant
on the government yeah that that was part of the rare case for sure um although but i mean that's
one thing that scares me on the government side is like volunteers this is larger than lockheed
martin and the boeings and it's the largest defense name i guess if you consider like a
microsoft or like some of those big big dogs but like it makes sense now at this point right because
instead of making planes the AI side
of things is going to be much bigger right
yeah just less hardware more software
yeah exactly
yeah I mean and that's
I'm pretty sure isn't Andrel going for
like 20-40 billion dollars
in the private markets I don't know what their valuation in the private
markets I'd have to check I don't know
it feels like they should go public and we get a massive yesterday In the private markets? I don't know what their valuation is in the private markets. I'd have to check. I don't know.
It feels like they should go public and we get a massive... Yesterday.
They would get a massive valuation.
That's a $100 billion company.
$200 billion problem.
That close.
And the thing is, considering what Palmer Luckey wants to do,
he wants to build the biggest drone factory in the United States
and wants to produce millions of drones.
Take the money.
Like, take the public's money.
They'll give it to you.
I just don't get it.
Like, they should go public today.
The stock will triple.
The stock will literally triple in very short order.
It might even double on day one and hold it, unlike Figma.
Figma, that was a crazy move and gave it back,
but it would hold the move.
The bid would be enormous.
Can you imagine the options chain on Anderil?
People would be in 100% out of the money calls
slapping them.
It would go parabolic.
I would buy it hand over fist.
I don't care at what price.
I would buy it hand over fist. I don't care at what price I would buy it hand over fist at the IPO. Um, they should, they should take advantage of never before,
not even never before in the last like 20 years, there's never ever been an inflection point.
Like we're at now for mid cap aerospace and defense, mid cap aerospace and defense is
trading at like twice the multiple of legacy prime contractors. It's never happened before.
And it's happening now because people are realizing what's happening in the aerospace
and defense world. And that money is trickling down to the smaller contractors because they're
more specialized and they can do things, small, special things more effectively and more efficiently
than these large contractors. And most of the mid-cap aerospace and
defense companies operate like real research shops. They spend their own money to develop weapons.
This has never been a thing in traditional contracting. In fact, Kratos, which is my
largest aerospace and defense holding, is the first company that started this idea of saying,
instead of waiting, okay, for those that don't understand military contracting in the
audience, I'll break this down from the sort of top of it. Traditionally, what happens is that
a prime contractor will receive a contract, right? There'll maybe subcontract portions of it out,
but they use the money provided by the contract to develop the product.
Okay. So there'll be, let's say a's say a billion dollar, um, liquidity portion of
the award at the outset of the contract. They'll take that billion dollars and develop what they
are meant to be developing for the contract. That's how traditional prime defense contracting
works. Okay. Kratos started saying, we aren't going to wait for, to, to ink contracts. We're
going to develop the technologies, present the technologies to the Department of Defense,
and then secure contracts that way because it'll be more compelling.
Our offering will be more compelling because it'll be a complete offering
rather than offering a concept or a prototype to the DoD and saying we want the contract.
So that's what Kratos started doing.
And they started winning more awards and they started growing.
And now the stock's a $10 billion stock after this move that's made the last two years. But Palantir has done the same thing. And Anduril has done the same thing, where they say, we're not going to wait for the awards. We're going to build and we're going to innovate and then we're going to go to the DoD. And so what Palmer is doing with Androil is exactly that. And, you know, they are world leading, I don't say manufacturer,
but they're world leading in the design of drones. They're world leading in the design
of precision munitions. And so they have these design capabilities internally that they just
now need to leverage at scale and become a real hardware defense company
and build millions of products.
And you need public money to do that, I think, to do it more effectively.
Can they continue to raise in the private markets at a premium valuation?
Yeah, but on the public markets, that stock's going to $100-plus billion valuations very quickly.
And they'll be able to raise a lot more money at a lot more favorable terms.
So I think they should go public,
but obviously it's up to Palmer. Lucky he has hinted at wanting to do it,
but we'll see what happens.
But yeah, that's kind of how it works.
Damn. You got any other thoughts on any of these earnings,
the penalty or numbers, anything like that?
Yeah.
Nvidia wins everything. Sorry. I mean, that, that's just the way that i read this the ai storm is not over it's re-accelerating against the narrative you have all these companies
powering a lot of their systems with additional compute that of course is getting cheaper by the
day but the demand is always increasing probably double that every single day as well. So on top of that, you have smaller companies
that are starting to bring on more Palantir technologies, considering that US revenue is
of 93%. Actually, that's what I'm assuming, but I think under the radar, that is happening a lot.
You're seeing the use cases increase. You're starting to see a lot of these other companies
report excellent numbers, including Axon Enterprises, which basically is the AI for defense.
And then you see the entire e-commerce expansion when you look at MercadoLibre with their GMV
numbers, which are really good.
Obviously, the stock has been on quite a run lately.
You're going to see a little bit of the tax situation hit there.
Haven't dived into those numbers.
But at the end of the day, everything that is powering all this is compute in one way
or another.
Like Stock Talk was saying before, MercadoLibre runs logistics for Latin America.
Amazon does it for the US internationally.
And then you have other competitors around the entire world also running the e-commerce
branches as well, C Limited.
And then you have the ride sharing as well.
You saw Lyft have a deal with Baidu in terms of bringing ride sharing
autonomously to Europe.
All this compute needs to be powered
by GPUs, GPU clusters,
and data centers around the world.
But it also needs to be provided by compute
that's a lot closer to people
than data centers that are tens
and hundreds of miles away.
You need faster inference queries.
And the only way you can do that is to bring the compute closer to the customers with edge
computing, whatever it is.
At the end of the day, NVIDIA is just going to win all this.
It is a clear sign that they are going to be the winner of all this because they are
the leader in that entire sector.
And then it's all going to trickle down to other data center suppliers as well.
But this isn't stopping.
Anyway, guys, I got a job.
I got to jump into a really cool ETF interview.
So talk to you guys later.
You don't want to talk, my Gav.
Let's go.
Nice.
Yes, sir.
All right, Stock Talk.
We can throw it your way if you want to jump into some of the other names you're watching.
Yeah, I mean, obviously everything was up today,
so there's no point in really recapping everything being up
but um we did make some ads on friday which turned out nicely today um added to uu uu energy fuels
there was a clean pullback on friday for this name into the 21 ema uh posted the chart on friday for
our members at the lows we caught the 21 ema then bounced and closed in between the 21 and 9 EMA on a low volume sell.
If you look at the volume on the ramp for UUU from 6 to 9, which happened earlier in July, it was very, very high volume.
In fact, if you look at the volume profile on UUU in general over the last three months, it's extremely accumulative.
All of the selling is low volume.
And so I felt like it was a nice opportunity for us on Friday at the 21st.
We made it grab that.
We did grab it.
And it was up 10% today, which is beautiful.
Gives us a very, very big cushion right away.
Rare metal stocks were in general hot again today.
That's the theme that sort of held up last week when a lot of other thematic areas were selling.
Rare metals held up really well, and they had a monster day today.
You had UAMY, which is the antimony play, up 20%.
PPTA, which is another antimony in gold play, up 10%.
Energy fuel, UUU, which is uranium play and also a rare earth metals processing play. They have the
only rare earth metals processing plant in the United States. That was up 10%. IDR, IDO strategic
resources. They have three or four rare metals assets. That was up 7%. All the rare metals names
ripped to the upside today. So that was nice to see in that space. And I think that space remains
very, very strongly bid for good reason.
The Trump administration came out last week and said the MP materials deal that they signed is not going to be the only deal in rare earth metals.
And so I expect you will see more deals in that space.
And I think that's why those stocks are holding up so well and are not selling with the other momentum selling that we saw last week.
They just did not go down. So that's notable.
I feel like I'm pretty comfortable with my rare metals exposure here.
I have Materion and Energy Fuels, and I like both those names here. So I remain long on those.
Materion, a little bit of consolidation today, but that's to be expected. Stock moved like 15% higher last week post earnings for us. So nice little consolidation today, closed up about 0.53%. Genius Sports,
I talked a lot about this stock on these spaces. Talked about it the first day back in June in
960, where we got in. Stock is over 12 today. It hasn't been an easy one to sit through because
it has very choppy action.
But if you have conviction like we had and we've remained long on this thing, it is just trended higher.
These last four sessions have been beautiful as stock pushes through the $12 spot.
There remains a ton of range on this thing.
It's reporting earnings this week, the 6th on Wednesday.
I will obviously be holding through earnings.
If we get a little pullback on earnings, it's a position I would add to.
It's not a position I would panic sell on earnings personally.
I'm not telling you guys what to do, but that's what I'm going to do.
I do expect earnings to be strong.
I think the stock remains mispriced even after this 25% move higher.
25% move higher. I think the stock remains mispriced. That's why I remain long.
I think the stock remains mispriced.
That's why I remain long.
You know, back in July, stock posted its highest ever daily, weekly, and monthly volumes
simultaneously. That's bullish. Range is tightening and stock is now above this $12 spot,
which should unlock range to 14 bucks in my view. Past 14, you unlock range to the 16 80 ish area past that you
blue skies to the highs at 25 so i think this thing has plenty of room i think it should be
valued as a software stock and it remains valued as a sports betting stock i think that's incorrect
i think the market will realize that and it as it has been realizing over these past few weeks
and the stock has been slowly repriced uh to upside. We talked a little bit about the NFL and Disney deal last week when
I was talking about Genius and why they're a beneficiary of that deal. Another name we opened
on Friday, which moved nicely today in light of that same catalyst. And for those that did not
hear last week, the catalyst was that the NFL is selling
Red Zone, NFL Network, and seven league-owned broadcasts to Disney to be integrated into ESPN.
We also added on Friday another stock in this space that tested the 9 EMA very cleanly on Friday,
which is Fubo, F-U-B-O. Now, for people that remember, this was one of our bigger trades at the start of the year.
I opened this name up at the very start of the year down to around 150. And then we got a massive
catalyst of Disney selling part of their stake and combining their Hulu live TV business with
Fubo. That stock went from 150 to 650 overnight on that catalyst. It was the
biggest trade for us at the start of the year. Obviously, we sold into that move, and I haven't
looked at it since then. But since then, it came back down from 650 down into 250, consolidated
around the 100-day, sloppy action. And then over the last few months, started tightening up again,
caught support on
all of its moving averages. If you look last week, this thing sitting above all the moving averages
was tightly flat on the 90MA. I really liked the technical look on the daily last week. So we bought
it at 374 on Friday. That stock traded over four today, closed at 396, was up 6%. The earnings are
coming up for that name this week. I don't really have
a read through on earnings. I was more so playing the catalyst on that. So we'll see how Fubo moves
in through the rest of the week. If I can get like 415, 420 going to earnings, I'll just sell
the whole thing prior to earnings. If not, I'll probably take half the position in with a cushion
because I do have a cushion on it now, about a 6% cushion after today's move. So that's my thinking on Fubo.
We opened that on Friday, like I said, with Energy Fuels
and saw that move to the upside.
We covered a few catalysts this morning on our morning call as well,
a pre-market call that I do every morning.
And a couple of those moved nicely today.
MNMD, Oppenheimer was out on that one.
They had a really nice note on it.
They called it a high conviction on their psychedelic asset that could be going into production next year.
And so they came out with a big $24 or $26 price target on it.
That stock moved up 10% today, M&MD, to the upside.
Psychedelic names in general were strong today.
We covered Zevia, ZVIA,
which is a beverage company. It was a pretty simple note out this morning from Telsey saying,
look, this name's undervalued versus other beverage names. You look at peers like Celsius,
even bigger peers like Coca-Cola and Dr. Pepper Keurig, they're trading at 2.5 to up to 6.5 times EV over sales,
while Zevia trades at just 1.5 times EV over sales.
And so they think the stock is mispriced versus peers.
And so Telsey came out.
Have you ever tried it before?
I actually don't.
I have had it.
It's pretty good.
Oh, okay.
That's interesting.
I think it's pretty good.
Zevia, I could be wrong.
Maybe that's just what the person is calling it.
They own some other brands too, but yeah.
What is this?
It's a drink?
Yeah, it's a beverage company.
They use the, instead of like using the sugar or whatever, they're using like the Zevia
or whatever that leaf is.
Are you talking about Stevia?
The sugar leaf that's supposed to be a little better for you?
Stevia.
The company's called...
They use Stevia or Stevia, but they use it like, yeah.
But yeah, they have like...
I did not know this was public and stock market
nerd brad actually uh got me to try the product i don't know if he's ever looked for the stock
i don't think so okay yeah but so yeah so anyway telsey coming out this morning saying look
so i'll see his coca-cola keurig monster pepsi vita cocoa they're all trading 2.5 to 6.5 x
zevia is trading you know at 1.5 X so they just think
it's underpriced pretty simple pretty straightforward note that stock had a nice
morning and sort of faded close up about 7% today lift obviously I thought had a really nice catalyst
I was surprised only up 3% today but they had to buy new catalyst I bought some yeah I think
the chart actually looks good earnings this week and Lyft off of that catalyst this morning. Yeah, I think the chart actually looks good. Chart looks good.
Earnings this week.
And I really, so Lyft has been kind of left for dead.
I really thought if you were giving them something to speculate on, I thought this EV theme would be something there.
Or sorry, the autonomous theme would be something they would speculate on.
I'm a little surprised they didn't move higher either.
My second thought after that, after what this means for Lyft
was this is probably not a good thing for the European market, the fact that an American and
Chinese company are partnering to launch in your area. Yeah, I mean, Europe's a museum at this
point, dude. Europe's like, I don't know what's wrong with Europe, but Europe's a museum. Like,
they literally are. It's just for the entertainment of Americans and rich Asians to go and explore and look at your palaces and things that you built.
Like Europe has just fallen behind.
I mean, they're so behind in AI.
I don't even know if they're competitive.
They're behind in new tech hardware.
They don't have their own military defense supplies.
They're going to be sending $200 billion to $300 billion to the United States over the next 10 years.
NATO is to buy U.S. military supplies. They're going to be sending two to 300 billion to the United States over the next 10 years. NATO is to buy U.S. military supplies. They have very little native agriculture outside
of a few regions in Spain and Italy and France, like Germany. It's just Europe is a mess. Europe
is a mess. And they need to figure it out because they're falling behind the rest of the world.
I mean, Europe, to me,
Europe from an investment standpoint is less interesting than Southeast Asia. You couldn't
say that 10 years ago. You'd be laughed out of the room for saying that 10 years ago. People
would be like, are you kidding me? Southeast Asia? But look at the growth in Southeast Asia
right now. And I mean, it's enormous. And the tech in Southeast Asia, you look at the battery
companies in Southeast Asia, the biggest battery companies in the world tech in Southeast Asia you look at the battery companies in Southeast
Asia the biggest battery companies in the world are in Southeast Asia batteries are becoming
every more important every day Europe just doesn't have a crown right now in anything
it's like it's sad it's actually sad what's happening in Europe but anyway yeah and an
American and Chinese companies coming in and dominating market share in new industries is
just another peg in that wheel. But Europe needs new leadership.
They need motivation.
They need some hype, some energy.
The young people in Europe have to stand up and, you know, take the reins because, yeah,
it's sad.
Sad what's happened to Europe.
And I love Europe.
I love visiting Europe.
But it's become a museum for the rest of the world.
And it's sad. But anyway, um yeah lift lift chart looks great um defended you know it came below the 100
and 200 day uh on friday and i was like that's ugly that's an ugly look below all the moving
averages on friday and then today you get this catalyst and it's sort price tucked in today uh you know with this green cattle between
the 100 and 200 day i like that look you know it's not a high probability look let's be clear
you get a rejection here at the 200 tomorrow and just send this thing back lower so it's not high
probability but you break the 200 to the upside here recapture the 9 and 21 let's say this thing
can take 1460 into
the end of the week then that's a really pretty look you know and it goes to show how quickly a
future candles can change things right we were talking about spy last week let's talk about spy
right spy gave up the 21 ema on friday today what happened we not only did we take it back we retook the nine too right we closed what 631 17 nines at 630 65 so
we retook the 9 and 21 today now granted low volume right compared to friday's sell very low
volume now you know we posted what 540 million volume on spy on friday posted 72 today so
literally half the volume um it nonetheless it nonetheless, it is nice to see
us recapture both of those overhead. Generally, if you're going to get stuffed, what you'll see is
when you get a 21 EMA forfeit, if you're going to get faked out, you'll see a recapture of the 21
and a rejection at the nine, right? That's like, if you want to be textbook about it, that's
generally a bad sign where you say, okay, yeah, you got a low volume rebound.
We got a low volume rebound into the nine. You couldn't recapture it. Then you see that second sell the next day.
We could still get that. I'd say you can't get that. But in my view, less of a probability when you recapture the nine.
So you want to see more green at the end of the week if you're a bull, because that will mean that last week selling was just a blip on the radar.
On the other hand, if we lose the 21 again headed into the end of the week, that's going to be an
ugly look. And in that scenario, I probably would hedge. I was considering a hedge on Friday,
but I was looking at that 620 forfeit. So I put out a note for our members saying,
hey, if we forfeit 620, I'll get hedges into the close. We did not. We defended 620 into the close
on Friday. So I didn't pick those hedges up. But if we get rejected in the end of the week, go back below
the 21, I will pick those hedges up. So just to be clear about that, that is my thinking on hedging
currently. We lose that 620 spot into the end of the week, lose the 21, I will put some on.
But for now, things look great. I have a lot of stocks reporting this week so it will be a busy week for me in
terms of um paying attention to things you you reports on the 7th this week and three days
warby parker which i've talked a lot about in these spaces which also had a very nice day today
by the way up 3.7 percent uh they report on the 7th i'm gonna be holding all these through earnings
by the way so fyi i have big cost basis advantages on all these names.
Nebius reports on the 7th.
Our cost on that is $23.92.
I remain very bullish on Nebius.
I think it's still a misunderstood story.
I think everyone thinks it's a data center play, and it's not.
It's a high optionality AI play.
You have ClickHouse.
You have Toloka.
You have AVRide, a robotics business. So to me,
it's one of those stocks where you get all the exposure to AI, you get data center exposure,
you get robotics exposure, you get software exposure, you get data observability exposure.
And by the way, in the data observability space with ClickHouse, which Nebius owns a 28% stake in,
there's no competitors really in data observability right now.
And it's an overlooked part of data consumption
because everyone's thinking about these enormous sets of data
that we're feeding AI.
And if you look at the early stages of AI training
a year and a half ago, two years ago,
the very early stages of AI training was just brute force, right?
Feed the AI as much data as possible in fact i'm sure
some of you remember that funny moment with mira marati from open ai where they asked her about
like the youtube videos right they asked her like hey how like have you guys been feeding youtube
videos to uh to train open ai and she like had she gave a non-answer she's like i i don't know
and like people were laughing at that like how do you actually not know? And in her defense, you know, first of all,
she's not the one directly training the AI. So she may not have actually known. But the brute force
approach they were using back then of just feeding the internet, basically to AI, did not have a lot
of discretion. You know, in many cases, they didn't know what they were feeding to the AI in terms
of the specificity of the data. Now, since then, a lot of things have changed in AI training.
Efficiency has changed. We've realized that compute is probably needed more so for inference
than training. We've realized that models have limitations and that we need bigger and bigger
clusters to build bigger and bigger
models, right? That's why you're seeing these million GPU clusters now that Zuckerberg and
Elon are building. So we've realized some things. And we've also realized that data sets are
important. What you feed the models when you're training them is important. And it distinguishes quality
of models. Like when we're doing these benchmarkings of all these AI models and like
the chatbot arena and like all these different third party programs that are testing the models,
when you look at them, the data sets that are being fed to the models are a big point of
differentiation. It's why, you know, four or five months ago, a lot of people were saying Claude was the best because they are very specific with the data. Anthropic is that
they feed Claude versus OpenAI takes a more generalist approach with the data that they feed
ChatGPT. So anyway, on this broader point of data ingestion, data observability matters.
ingestion, data observability matters. What data observability is, is your ability to
view and splice data sets, enormous data sets. I'm talking about millions of millions of terabytes
of data. You can't even wrap your mind around how large these data sets are,
they're feeding these models. Data observability is what clickhouse does
is it lets you go to these data sets and say i want this this and this but i don't want all this
garbage you know this this and this are what the relevant data sets to our model and you think
about it and you say well why why does that need to be done by software well imagine doing that as
a human imagine going through millions of videos and saying, yeah,
it's these 45,000 videos that are quality. You just can't do that. That would take hundreds of
thousands of hours of manpower to do, and it would probably be done inefficiently, right?
I mean, you would have human error involved. So ClickHouse does it through AI and they do it through AI whose purpose is, is to
observe the data, the data, the, these AIs are not training or ingesting the data. They're
observing the data, splicing it and finding appropriate places. But it's, so anyway,
I could talk about Nebius all day, but yeah, I still love Nebius. No plans to sell. It's more
than a double for us. Stock goes down on earnings. I'm a buyer, not a seller. It's a core position
for us. So yeah, Kratos, same thing. They report this week. That's our
core position. Biggest aerospace and defense position. Same MO there. I'm a buyer, not a
seller. Genius reports, Magni reports, Centris Energy, which is our biggest position by waiting
reports. So I have a huge week this week for earnings. You know, portfolio is probably going
to see some volatility, but post this week, I will be able to make some decisions on what names I may want to get rid of or add to based on how the reports went.
So, yeah, that's kind of what I'm looking forward to this week.
I got two things.
One, I want to say I appreciate everyone for being here.
And if you enjoy this, you should make sure you are following the host of the spaces.
We're doing this type of show all the time. You get to hear Stock Talk and everyone for being here. And if you enjoy this, you should make sure you are following the hosts of the spaces. We're doing this type of show all the time.
You get to hear Stock Talk and everyone else up here.
They're amazing thoughts.
If you've enjoyed this, follow the hosts.
Also follow the other speakers.
We appreciate Matt for being here.
Stock Talk, Wolf, Stock Sniper, everyone else.
Give them a follow.
The question I want to ask you though, Stock Talk,
the second point here,
a lot of those themes,
the kind of defense sector
with those drone names the kind of nuclear and the kind of new energy themes all these themes
have run a lot and i just wanted to get your thoughts on at what point is like does the i
don't know if it's valuation or if it's it's just a theme letting itself run out i don't know maybe
you're thinking protecting your down.
I don't know exactly what you think about it,
but the question here is when is enough?
Are you starting to take those profits?
This might be a question for after.
I'll give you an example of this.
So Joby, which was up 20% today,
we were in this from 9.50 in June,
and it was a thematic trade based off the eVTOL theme.
I sold it last week at 18.
It doubled for us.
The valuation was $15 billion.
They have no revenue.
I was like, this is getting a little long in the tooth.
It went up another 20% today.
Could I have held it?
Yeah.
Was I like, oh, fuck, dude.
I sold it right before it went up 20%.
Yeah, but I also doubled my money on it in four weeks.
So am I mad about that? No, I made a killing on Joby. But before it went up 20%. Yeah, but I also doubled my money on it in four weeks. So like, am I mad about that?
No, I made like a killing on Joby.
But the stock went up again today.
So to your question of when do you know a theme's over,
you don't, you don't.
These themes can last years sometimes
and get long in the tooth, right?
Then my question is,
at what point do you start thinking about taking profits?
That's what I'm saying right now.
At what point do you start to kind of...
Like with Joby, right?
I took profits because it was a $15 billion valuation with no revenue.
I was like, hey...
How much of the profits did you take off when you go do that?
I took the whole position off.
I was like, could it go higher?
Yeah, but I mean, if you were to come to me and be like,
hey, would you pay a $15 billion valuation for Joby today?
I would say no.
So it was that simple for me, right?
Sometimes it's about just like asking yourself, okay, when I got in, when I got in, Joby was trading at an $8 billion valuation, right?
And did I think even that was a little rich for a pre-revenue company?
Yeah, but the chart looked great.
The EBITOL theme was hot.
The drone theme was hot.
I was like, okay, I want to get some exposure. So I opened it. In a week, it was
like 14. In another week, it was 18. I was like, all right, dude. Okay, great. I guess people
really like this name, but it's too much for me. And so I took the money off. And I mean,
there's going to be times like that. Centris Energy, for example, which I love, that stock
could go down 20% on earnings this week, right? But I don't think it's expensive.
It's a $3.5 billion market cap.
Is it expensive on a PE basis?
Yes.
But it's a $3.5 billion market cap for the only uranium enricher on planet Earth that's publicly traded.
I'll keep that.
I'm cool with that trading at a $3.5 billion market cap.
Now, is the market going to be okay with it?
I don't know.
We'll find out on earnings this week. But those are the sort of ways I decide whether to stay in these themes or
not. It's like I look at the company and I'm like, hey, I got in. What was the valuation? What is the
valuation now? Is it too much too fast? Has it doubled in three weeks? These are the types of
things I ask myself and say, okay, look, I'm okay with getting out of the theme now. Could it continue on? Sure. But I'm okay with stepping away at this juncture. And that's, those decisions are
made on a personal basis. There's no like ABC, XYZ rules that I'm following to say I'm getting out.
Sometimes I think the charge too extended. Sometimes I think the valuation's too high.
Sometimes I think there's a negative catalyst out for the theme that has durability and
is going to scare people out of the trade.
You know, that could be a reason to get out.
Sometimes I think, you know, maybe the peer valuations are lower and I'd rather rotate
into the peers than stay in the leader.
Like there's all sorts of different decisions that go into saying, hey, I want to be out
of the theme now. But I wish it
was something as simple as me saying, oh, when it trades above a 25 P I sell it. Like it's not that
simple. I wish it was. It's on a case by case basis. And like I said, many times I sell and
it goes higher. Like Joby, I sold, it just went 20% higher today. Talon Energy, I sold it like
three weeks ago, four weeks ago. It went like 40% higher
after sold it. It's trading in the 300s now. But I was like, oh, power producers getting a little
long in the tooth. Does it mean I'm going to be right? No. But it means that I secure my profits
and move on to the next trade and move on to the next idea. And there's other trades where it's not
about the theme for me. It's about some greater reason that I'm in it.
Like Genius Sports. There was a catalyst on Genius Sports when we got in, was the extension
of the NFL deal. But the stock went up, down, sideways. They were forfeited the 21 EMA like
three times. I never sold it. Why? Because it wasn't just a technical trade for me. I had faith
that the market would understand that this is a software stock and begin repricing it. And in the last two weeks, that has begun to happen, right?
The stock's gone 25% higher.
So it's case by case.
I have a thesis for every stock I buy.
And when that thesis becomes extended or becomes long in the tooth or becomes shaky on its feet, I get out in some way, shape, or form.
I might sell all of it. I might sell
half of it, you know, who knows, but yeah, it's, there's no hard and fast rule. And that, that sort
of management style comes with experience, right? You learn over time, like, what are the reasons
you should be selling? And what are the reasons you should be buying? And sometimes people buy
and sell for the wrong reasons and
they learn their lesson. And then, you know, next time you're presented with that opportunity in
that situation, you say, oh, okay, well, I remember I made this decision last time and
it didn't work out for me. I'm going to wait this time or I'm going to, you know, buy instead of
sell this time or whatever. And you learn that you learn that over time. But yeah, I'm happy with the way things are going.
I mean, I had a big pullback in these last few weeks on performance. That's going to happen.
You know, I don't have the liberty of selling all my stocks like traders do. So when the markets
are going to pull back, I have to be prepared for a drawdown. I'm going to see one. But
after today's bounce, I'm back at 123% year-to-date performance. So, yeah, I'm chilling.
I'm going to expect high volatility for the portfolio.
I'm in high volatility names.
I'm in a lot of smid caps, right?
If I look at my portfolio right now, let's organize my market cap.
I have one, two, three, four, five, six, six names above a 10 billion market cap.
And one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 10 names below a 10 billion market cap.
So I'm going to expect volatility, you know, especially on these earnings.
I'm going to have stocks that go up 20%.
I'm going to have stocks that come down 20%.
And I'm okay with that, you know, and as long as the technical structure holds i'll
stay in those names so yeah i'm very okay with this market being a little choppy these last
couple weeks is fine with me looks like we have another bid here after hours on the indexes so
looks like we may end up getting some continuation i will say even though the markets the market's ripped today, it was interesting to me that Bitcoin stayed pinned.
Bitcoin tried to make a move earlier in the day and then got rejected in that 115.5-ish area.
So Bitcoin remains underneath its 9.21.
Now, you could get an explosive move to retake both of these levels tomorrow.
And the reason for that is they're actually overlapped here a little bit.
9 EMAs sitting at 115.7.
You see the 50-day on that as well?
Yeah, the 50-day defense was near perfect, yeah.
And so it came in this weekend and tucked onto the 50-day basically to the penny.
Came in this weekend and tucked onto the 50-day, like basically to the penny at that one.
It's sitting today at 112.3, I think on the weekend it was sitting around 112 flat.
But defended that 50-day, bounced, now pushing into the 921, it's a good look.
But you would want it to retake that spot tomorrow.
So you'd like to see Bitcoin, not necessarily tomorrow, but into the end of the week above 116. That'd put it above both the nine and 21. And that would be a nice
recovery candle for Bitcoin. So that's what I'd like to see on Bitcoin. And I'd like to see SPY
go back to the highs at the end of the week. So I'd like to see SPY trading closer to 640 into
the end of the week. If you can get both of those things, bulls will be back in tip top shape to
keep going.
On the other hand, this low-volume bounce today gets faded.
We go back below the 21, in which case I will hedge and prepare for a retest of the 50 down at 611.
So, yeah, that's my thinking on the broader markets and on individual stocks this week.
week. I'm preparing. I got my cup on this week to ready to get hit in the nuts if I have to
I'm preparing.
by a few of these names because... Don't pretend like you don't like it.
Sometimes I do. Sometimes I'm like, okay, it's a good wake-up call. Sometimes it gets you refocused.
We got a bad chime in there
Matt we appreciate you being here by the way
I don't know if you have any thoughts
how many shares do we get up to traded on PTIR
let me pull that up
but yeah we definitely appreciate you being here
people should check you out
if you guys didn't know that there was a 2x penalty
or ETF out there PTIR
obviously you guys should know what you're investing in,
and we just want to put stuff on your radar,
but that is out there.
I imagine we're about to say some very large number
where most of you guys already do know it exists.
I don't know if you saw that headline.
I was going through my old headlines we were talking.
I saw the headline, half of NVIDIA employees
now have a net worth over $25 million.
Do you see that?
I'd have to look a little bit later, but it does not really surprise me it Jensen came out
with a comment that he's created the most billion I think our most billion
I think the number was actually 10 10 what 10 million oh the headline I see on
my news feeds it's 20 10 million Wow I don't know we're up to one I can't
verify it I can't do a survey of all the employees, unfortunately.
We're up to 1.2 million, up almost 8% after hours.
Just a monstrous day.
I don't know what's going to stop this company.
It's amazing.
It looks like the average volume is 2.74.
Today it was 4.6.
So what?
Half volume of the day?
After hours.
This is incredible, guys.
First hour, we still got that earnings call.
Palantir earnings call starting right this second.
We are also going to be closing this one out.
We got some stuff coming up from the Wolf account in a second.
Make sure you are following all of the speakers up here.
Again, Stocks on Spaces will be live again tomorrow at 3 p.m. Eastern.
Matt, we appreciate you being here.
Thanks for having me, guys.
I don't know if you have any final words.
Thank you so much for the time.
Let's keep the market ripping.
Thank you, sir.
Stock Talk, you got anything you want to leave?
No, we'll see you guys tomorrow.
It should be an exciting week.
There's going to be a lot to talk about this week.
It's going to be a lot of moves, big earnings.
AMD earnings.
Yeah, a lot of big earnings.
So it should be fun.
Very nice. All right, Em Should be fun. Very nice.
All right, Em.
Appreciate you.
Appreciate everyone.
Appreciate your sniper.
Have a great one, team.
All right.
We'll see everyone over on that Wolf account here in about 90 seconds. Thank you.
