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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: June 12, 2025 Duration: 0:21:51Space Recording
Short Summary
Genius Sports secures a pivotal partnership with the NFL, extending their deal and positioning for growth in the sports data market. This collaboration not only enhances their visibility but also opens doors for future fundraising opportunities as the NFL increases its stake.
Full Transcription
all right people what is up what is up good afternoon team we have a wild evan behind the
account today what's up everybody referring to myself in the third person to start out the spaces.
What a horrible way to start the spaces.
There we go.
It should be an interesting day, though.
It's been quite the day in the stock market.
We've been, honestly, kind of boring.
But we've been going sideways.
My portfolio is down a little bit.
Some of my calls haven't been going super well, but that's okay.
When I'm looking at the Mag 7, it's pretty green. Microsoft is a notable outperformer here at all-time highs. A couple of their names were hitting all-time highs. Oracle,
off of their earnings yesterday, which we touched a little bit. That stock is doing really well
today. At least it was earlier. That one was up to new all-time highs. We don't really talk about
Oracle much, but it is the 17th largest public company in the world.
Oracle, up 14% today, is currently worth $563, $64 billion.
That is a large company.
If you're wondering, Tencent is one bigger than it at $600 billion.
MasterCard is one smaller than it at $535 billion.
Yeah, so that's kind of what's been going on today.
NVIDIA and Microsoft standing out as over-performers,
out-performers on the Mag 7.
Overall, the Mag 7 doing kind of decent today,
all things considered when I'm looking at the market.
I'm excited to hear what everyone else has to say.
Options Mike, you're the first person on this panel quite often one of the first people
up here how you doing today i saw a picture of the dog on the giants uh on the giants blanket
you know he was uh he was working hard there for me you know sleeping on his blanket awfully happy
yeah he looked happy he looked like he got a good stretch in looked like he was ready to uh
to attack the day uh yeah except that was at 2 o'clock in the afternoon or something,
so not really so much.
How are you doing today, though?
What's standing up for you?
Oh, damn, I just retweeted this from Stocks on Spaces.
I'm just going to warn you guys.
The chances of me clicking a link during this,
and if you don't know when you click a link
and it takes you to a different account,
instantly Spaces ended.
I would say that is elevated today.
I will open it up right back away.
I appreciate you all.
Mike, what are you watching in this market today?
I made two trades today.
I had a huge trade on Oracle on options out of the gate.
Should have stayed even longer.
But that report was just that 24% cloud growth forecast for next year
was huge for a company that size, right?
We're not talking a growth company like a snowflake. That was huge for them. And that's
a great thing. And that's why they're up so much and they're at an all time high. And
I took a tiny 70 buck loss on AMD. So let's talk about AMD. AMD had their AI event today.
AMD had their AI event today.
And I love Lisa and I love AMD, but I got to say it was the same story that they've been kind of just sending us forever.
They talk about inference.
They talked about their new chips, their new servers, their new software, their partners.
Sam Altman even came on there.
But at the end of the day they're not showing
that they're making any dent into nvidia's market share and translation is it's not moving the
needle so they're investing all this money you know they claim their their new um ais are faster
than nvidia's i i don't know which ones they're comparing them first but against they're a heck
of a lot smaller i'll say that much mean, maybe like 120th the size.
But it doesn't really matter here.
You know, they need tangible results.
They need to say, hey, you know, yes, I know, you know,
everybody's using some of their chips that's in AI,
but they're not, you know, the vast majority of the chips
those companies have are NVIDIAs.
They have a small test area for AMD to see how it's working.
So, you know, today was kind of one of those days where, you know, a lot, there was a little
lot of negativity around the open of the market. We were down a little follow through from yesterday
and we talked yesterday. I said, I thought yesterday was just a down day in a bull market.
And then that's all it really was. We held the eight day on the SPY. We bounced. We're almost
back to yesterday's highs, but not far from from it the markets are near highs of the day met is near highs microsoft new all-time high i think i've been
saying that almost like every day now for the last month since they had earnings i mean just
a monster move there nvidia had a nice bounce back day this 145 area is giving it fits but if it gets
above that it could be good i'm still sitting in july calls on that one and then everything else
was kind of meh you know everything kind of came around held in the banks are on the highs energy
is up there's um trump was very active talking today and you know you know he's talking about
israel and you know maybe they will maybe they won't i hope not but you know it was kind of one
of those things i think there's i think there's a lot of effort here to get Iran to move their butts here.
And I think they're kind of allowing this to this idea that Israel might attack them in any moment to go forward.
And then there's Boeing and Boeing, man, this is a stock that just can't catch a break.
That air that there that's Dreamliner crash over there in India is horrible.
Dreamliner crash over there in India is horrible.
If you're Boeing and you're in a Boeing investor, you're praying to God it was bird strikes
because whatever happened after they took off, they lost lift.
Something caused them to not have enough power, and that would be pretty amazing for a plane like that,
you know, to have that happen.
So I think today is a great big nothing burger.
We had the Chime IPO. It opened up. It
was $27. It opened up in the 43 area and it's trading down into the 36 area now. And I didn't
touch that. You know, Chime kind of reminds me of Rocket and SoFi. Those are some names that are
just, they're kind of disruptors, but you know, the market and the financials and disruptors,
it's tougher, has a hard time wrapping its head around them as much as disruptors in tech.
I don't know, Evan, that's kind of where I'm at here today.
It's just kind of one of those days you just don't do too much.
We have Friday tomorrow.
Next week, we go into next week, we have the Fed.
Mike, tomorrow is not just Friday.
It's Friday the 13th.
If there's any superstitious in there, just saying, just so you know.
It is Friday the 13th, yes. Jason will be all over the 13th. If there's any superstitions in there, just saying. Just so you know.
It's Friday the 13th, yes.
Jason will be all over the markets tomorrow.
You have the Fed meeting next Wednesday.
And just remember, next week's a weird week for the markets.
Markets are closed next Thursday for Juneteenth.
So, you know, we'll have three days, then a day off, and then we'll come back next Friday
to finish out the week.
Friday is going to be such a dead day next week.
It's not even funny.
Is that OPEX too?
Yes, it is.
First of the OPEX.
Okay, that's going to be
a horrible day for trading.
Have fun, guys.
I'll warn you a little early.
Because, I mean,
if anybody's anybody,
why not make it
a four-day weekend?
That is what I will be doing.
Nice. Very nice, Mike. You got any thoughts on this tesla move today i
know that was another one um you know maybe they're back we're back to being friends also
there's a apparently a big uh internet outage right now going across cloud flare is having
big problems right now it seems like it's google and aws too i don't know what specific company
this is oh i think it's cloud fairare affects them. Discord, you can't post
pictures on it. Their outage is just affecting a lot
of people. It's also Spotify.
I couldn't access any...
I was going to podcast pages and nothing was showing
My quick thoughts on Tesla is
they've obviously kissed. They
Frenched a little bit. They cuddled. They spooned.
They're all good now.
Trump was talking positive
about tesla and musk again it's irrelevant the stock habits move back up we are in a we're in
a waiting pattern on tesla you know until we start seeing some of these driverless rides go through
with passengers which doesn't start to the 22nd i don't think there's anything to move the needle
on tesla right now.
You know, only thing I could see happening that would be a negative would be like, you know, one of these self-driving cars.
I don't have any handful of them as an accident, right, or causes an accident.
That would be the – there's just no catalyst right now until we get to the 27th.
So it's just kind of maybe dead money for now, short term.
I was starting to feel that a little bit too, honestly.
I was looking at where Tesla stock was before this fallout between Musk and Trump,
and it was a little bit higher.
So that's what makes me think maybe, hey, maybe there's a play up to 340
as we're waiting for this kind of in-between play.
But I overall agree.
We're kind of sitting and waiting.
That's it.
It's just wait mode. And the market's kind of
in wait mode, right? It's that
time of year. It's going into summer.
Appreciate you, Mike.
What's up, Wolfie? How you doing today, sir?
Living the dream. What's going on
with you? Living the dream. Living like Larry.
I am
looking over the Jersey Shore right now
on a space instead of going and enjoying that.
So it's nice. This is what I enjoy doing, you know.
So it's been a good day for me.
What's going on for you in the market?
I have some calls that... I'm learning why I don't trade.
That's what we'll go there.
What do you got?
I have some Tesla calls, which were going in my favor.
I sold half of them at a really nice profit and kind of held on some to the others.
I sold the 2X what I put in my first batch of them.
So I'm kind of just holding risk-free.
And the other one was Warner Bros. Discovery off of the split play, which really did not work out.
I bought $11 calls.
And that's pretty much at zero now.
Happens.
A stressful way to end up making no money is basically where i'm at right now
yeah yeah i've been there um so for me i came into today short nvidia short apple
um i covered apple most of it for a profit i still got some nvidia left it's basically got
that 145 to stop me out on the remaining
coverage of profit early in the morning but outside of that been doing nothing um i think
it's interesting that we have a green day with the vix green uh it's kind of interesting especially
given how quiet today is uh i find it interesting people are bidding some sort of protection
i think that the oracle i couldn't echo more what
mike said oracle was pretty smashing um i posted like a little infographic about it earlier if you
want to check it out it's on my feed it's just it's it's not just the um it's not just what Mike said. They also had their
best quarter in
two years.
Showed no signs of weakness.
Demand still strong
across the board.
Outside of that, I took
a shot on
a recent IPO.
They don't have any options.
Circle?
No, actually. The circle one I want to short because i don't understand that how a you know a stable coin operator could
basically be up and to the right like it has been but no i took a shot on homada health omda
has an amazon partnership um it's a new issue sub 1 billion now came up against like a 15 level on an hourly
basis looked okay i got in around 1550 give or take um i don't know the exact price but about
1550 and yeah it's up all right but i'm taking a shot there just for like a trade nothing not an
investment or anything like that um and that's
just because i'm looking because of how hot the ipo market has been lately i'm looking at these
new issues that come out especially when they get sold off the way this one got sold off
um and outside of that i've just been kind of hanging out um i don't really see a reason to get
you know too aggressive one way or the other.
I said yesterday that I flattened out all the short-term stuff,
all the high-flyer stuff that kind of worked and some that didn't.
So I don't want to get too cute, especially with the Fed next week.
That's the other interesting part about next week.
You guys talked about Juneteenth,
but the interesting part is we got the Fed the day before.
So we're going to have like a Fed announcement.
You got to compress all of that into like a 90-minute window,
then take a day off for a break,
and then come back for OPEX and whatever else is left on the table.
So that's the only wrinkle that I think is interesting on that front.
Another thing that I found interesting todayinkle that i think is interesting on that front um you know another
thing that i found interesting today is that you have this amd uh you know md event and it's not
it's not as like uh as uh you know notable as it was in the past i've just mike mentioned about how
it seems like they're not getting into any of the nVIDIA moat, and that's obvious, but also like they didn't really have anything on the table across the board that like kind of drew up any sort of excitement.
Stock looks like crap still. And it's like a very quiet summer day, but under the surface, you know, you get these moves that happen intraday and then they either get bid back up the next day or a couple of days later.
And you talked about Tesla on the dot, spiked it to about 3.32 and change,
which was like $1 or $1.50 less than where,
or $2 less than where it got to yesterday.
And then that just kind of created that little, you know,
profit-taking event, sell-off, whatever.
It's nothing crazy, right?
It's just like 2%, but just slow melt to the lows.
And if you look at it on a chart basis, it got right to the 20-day.
So it's just kind of like that sell-off last week.
Broke the 20-day.
We rallied right back to it, right back to that inflection point.
And then now it seems like people are taking profits.
You guys talked about the service outage.
Net is getting sold on the back of it.
If there's no real exogenous thing,
then look for that 166 level, or take to be support that's the 20 day 21 ema
whatever you guys want if this if this isn't a hack it feels very comparable i'm stupid but it
feels very comparable to uh the crowd strike one yes exactly exactly what i'm getting at yeah if
there's nothing you know exogenous in there if there's not like a like a real malware problem that could last
then yeah you're looking at 20 day if it is a big problem then this thing could really get smoked
it's had quite the v reversal came you know the lows in april were like 90 bucks and it just
recently made 52 week high um the last couple of sessions got to like 181 and change so yeah
exactly what you just said evan if it's if it's a nothing burger, look for 166.
If there's more, there's really like a lot of air down to like 150.
And then below that, look for like the 100 day, like 140, 135, somewhere on there.
So yeah, I'm just, like I said, just trying to stay afloat.
stay afloat. I did take a short little scalp trade on Microsoft. I find it interesting that
I did take a short little scalp trade on Microsoft.
the option, like the move on Microsoft is breaking out and confirming an all-time high now,
but the options market isn't really pricing for, at least on a short-term basis, for any sort of
momentum trade. So if there's any crowding or piling in, the short-term calls could really kind of squeeze higher
just because of how they're priced.
That's my opinion.
And then the last one that I'm just kind of taking a look at,
two last things, I'm just going to take a look at,
commodities and gold, really kind of still sticky,
kind of performing.
Gold, I think, breaking out of a downtrend here today.
And then for me, I'm looking at just some of these momentum names that spiked into resistance and then now they're
coming back to support the one i could just think of off the top of my head that's pressing into
high days right now is uh unity software unity i you know i i bought it a couple weeks back it traded from like 20 something all the
way to 28 pretty much in a straight line and then now it's come back into that 20 or 21 whatever
number you prefer to use um support which is the breakup of it basically so as long as it holds
this 23 level it could could possibly make a pushback 28 breakout of 28 or the recent highs
is a breakout of a like a pretty major downtrend.
It's like a three-year downtrend.
So, you know, just kind of paying attention.
Don't want to get too cute for me.
I flattened out for the most part yesterday.
Did buy some vol, still have it.
But not expecting anything crazy or anything like that.
Just kind of want to be, you know, level-headed and booking my my profits and that's pretty much how i've been the last couple of days
i appreciate you there wolfie for joining into the conversation and that net will be an interesting
one to watch i want to bring over to illogical now i know logically you've been looking at these
biotech names a lot we had some interesting stories today there was one around with pharma
ads there was some stuff around rfk well i feel like you've been in headlines a
lot so i know that's an area you're watching a bunch i'm actually i'm actually gonna um sorry
logical love you but i'm gonna fuck you logical no i'm gonna steal logical spot here because i do
want to get out um my commentary on genius before the close. So I took a pretty major new position for me. I usually
don't start at a seven or 8% waiting for a new position. I usually start at a five or 6% waiting,
let the options exposure pick up some waiting for me, maybe size in once the sock starts moving,
and then get up to a seven to 10 percent seven to 10 percent
is where i put my higher conviction positions really uh and then my longer term positions
that i've owned for years those sit in the 10 to 15 range you know the amazons the teslas the
robin hoods so that's kind of how the general you know there it's more intricate than that but
that's you know very very basic overview of of how I do weighting in my portfolio.
But I generally don't start at a high weighting,
but I did take a high weighting initial position today in Genius Sports.
So yesterday, Genius Sports announced an extension of their deal with the NFL.
I pinned the post at the top for people that want to – I'm not going to repeat what I said in the post.
I posted it this morning.
Quite a few people saw it, but if you want to go read it, you can. I posted it above.
You know, I think this is an environment where a lot of garbage, small and mid caps have been
running a lot of pre-revenue names and I've traded them too. You know, we traded SMR from 17 to 34.
We've traded a bunch of these pre-revenue stocks and done well on them.
So I don't have anything against it.
I understand why they're running.
I actually like the themes that they're running in.
I'll continue to trade them.
But I do think there are a handful of mid and mid caps in the market that, you know, with the right catalysts are genuine fundamental opportunities as well.
Not just squeezable opportunities, but fundamental opportunities as well. And I think
when you find an overlap of those, it's rare. And so this NFL deal that I got extended yesterday,
I was busy yesterday. And so I didn't really get a chance to look at it. And this morning during
my research, things were kind of slow this morning on the sell side. So I was just scrolling through my notes from yesterday and I saw that I had a note about
genius and I was like, oh, I forgot to go look at that.
So I went and like went over the NFL deal this morning, probably in more detail than
I should have.
I actually didn't even do our pre-market call this morning.
I do a pre-market call for our members every morning where I go over the day's catalyst
and I just hopped on this morning and said, hey guys, I'm working on a new idea. So give me a second. Cause I was still finishing wrapping up the math on everything,
but I read the NFL deal in detail. And I was like, Holy shit. How did the stock only go up 3%
yesterday? Cause the deal was announced yesterday. The stock went up, this was up like 3% on the day.
And like, so I, I read the deal in in detail i looked at all the financials i looked
at the nfl's warrant stake i broke it down on an equity value they have a second trench of 4.5
million warrants all this detail i'm talking about now is not in the original post the post i put out
this morning is just the basic thesis but i went and looked at all the NFL's warrant exercise potentials, and the NFL is dragging out their stake in this company so that they don't have to become a greater than 10 percent owner as long as they can avoid it.
So the NFL now over the last three years or four years has gone from a 6.6 percent owner to a 7.7 percent owner and now an 8.7% owner in the company as the, this deal has been extended.
And the reason the deal was significant wasn't because it was an extension of the deal. Um,
again, what genius is, is Thank you.
