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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: July 7, 2025 Duration: 2:00:18Space Recording
Short Summary
Market trends show a mixed sentiment with Bitcoin slightly down, while companies like Palantir and Uber are experiencing growth. The upcoming earnings season and economic data are set to influence market dynamics, with traders focusing on sector rotations and cautious optimism.
Full Transcription
Thank you. What is up, everyone?
Welcome into Stocks on Spaces on this Monday afternoon, Power Hour time, taking a look at the market real fast before
we dive into some of our great panelists that we have on this show each and every week.
And yeah, tariff talks are back. That's been kind of the talk of the day, the news of the day.
A lot of true social letters being dropped that are being sent out to different countries with different tariff
rates. Malaysia, Japan, Korea, among those Laos mentioned so far. And yeah, here we are. QQQ down
0.78%. The S&P down a little bit more, actually. QQQ has been slightly stronger overall. 0.84%,
just over $5 on SPY. IWM getting beat up a little bit more, percent and a half,
Dow's down a percent. VIX up 2%. And some of your big names, obviously Tesla, I'm sure we'll
hear some of that today, but Tesla down 7%, going sideways for the most part today. But
big gap down on Tesla with the American Party and the political stuff creeping back in from Elon Musk.
What else do we have here? Bitcoin is down about a percent, hanging out just over 108,000 down here.
There's some names up, there's some names down. Pretty mixed bag out there.
Palantir, nice and green today. Uber, new all-time highs and nice and green today as well.
Some other things getting a little bit beat up. I've seen some things that were down roughly in the
morning that have come back, just kind of waterfinding its level here a little bit. And a
couple of slight green spots if I look across MAG7, I do see Meta still green. Costco, also in the top
10 weightings of the NASDAQ, is currently green. Amazon at break
even. Broadcom, strong this morning, has faded a little bit. And Microsoft kind of hanging in here
as well as NVIDIA, just kind of sideways, less than a percent down. Not a whole lot to talk about
on those fronts, but we'll talk about everything. We'll see what everyone's watching. Scott,
always great to have you, Mr. Red Dog, on the show. How you scott i'm doing good how's uh how's it going over there
not too bad i was uh kind of out of pocket the last uh week or so so i was playing a little
catch up looking at some stuff over the weekend and it looks like we had just a float up into
fourth of july a little bit of euphoria and just a kind of a controlled slow sell sell-off today. I don't know. What are you seeing out there in these markets?
You know, it's funny. Like last week, again, we do the Mondays and we talked about, you know,
a little bit of a shake and bake between sectors from some profit takers coming into some of the
winners and some of the names to focus on to play catch up i know last week everybody here was focusing on apple
at like 203 20350 and it you know i think most were talking about going to 214 216 and that's
what it did today um some of the names that you mentioned before are in like a little bit of a
rebuild stage some of the mega cap tech that actually led in the second quarter saw some
profit taking you know uh monday tuesday of last, whether it was Meta or Netflix, you know, or Palantir, more on the super growth side.
And then, yeah, you know, you had the XBI give you a decent move, not a great move.
You had the IWM give you a much better move.
But PS, it felt like the SPY, like you said, had a float up.
Like, I know for me, you know, when I have multiple positions that I'm trying to hold
for swings and we start to get overbought and the oscillator was plus 40, I start to
sell some SPY premium above.
I start to sell like I was selling like the 623s last week on Wednesday.
And then when we had the jobs report and we went up, I was selling like the 624s and the
625s.
And at some point, you know, it felt like we were in the midst of a little bit of a pain trade where, you know, I was losing more of my hedges than I was on my leftover positions because I was trimming and trailing myself out of a lot of good longs because of the size of the move.
So I didn't want to get caught in the daylight today, even though nothing's really changed, changed, but when the Spies are down 0.9% and the Qs are down 0.86 and you have names trying to correct a little
bit to the 8-day or the 21-day or even just getting below Thursday's low to fill that
gap if you have too many shares, it kind of hurts.
And then if you have a lot of positions, it adds up.
So for me, today was one of those days where, you know, when we break below
a prior low, like the Spies broke below 622, I tend to just reduce a little bit of the things
I'm not as committed to. You know, the Qs did the same thing. The Qs broke Thursday's low
of what's it called? What was it? 553. But if you look at both, both are still above the eight day.
You know, we talked about the eight day being the momentum trend.
We talk about the 21 day being the real trend.
If you're not as active, you know, we've been above the 21 day pretty much since April.
So in the whole scheme of things, today is not a big deal.
But if you were extra long thinking that Trump was going to give you, you know, some good news about tariffs over the weekend and you were going to have a Bitcoin July 4th.
I kind of thought we were going to have a Bitcoin July 4th and I was wrong.
It's not bad. Bitcoin's holding up fine, but it's not like it's above 110, 112.
I'm getting paid on my IBIT calls or Ethereum calls or my Mr. calls.
So, again, you know, I think that I'll tell you just the day that they get you a little, where you have to say, hey, it's July 7th.
Some trends are starting to kind of come in together a little bit here
for the third quarter.
You have to be a little bit more careful,
considering the size of the move that we've had since the April lows.
And you just got to know what you're looking to do here.
I'll introduce today, but now I know I have
points of reference we have 617 87 for the spies that's today's low we'll deal with that tomorrow
we have 549 58 in the queues you have a bunch of things in other stocks and sectors um and that's
and you know that's kind of like how I friend the week at this point met is rebuilding so it's up a
little bit it was down four days last week it's a little. It still has a lot of work to do before I start getting back into it as a swing trade,
and it needs to prove that it's a short.
It's probably not that.
Same thing with the Palantir.
It's having a nice bounce today, but still, you know, it's definitely in a rebuild stage
after the size of the move that it had.
You know, CRCL is kind of rebuilding.
CRWV is like, I think a lot of things are kind of
rebuilding and when you get a daylight today it you know you kind of take off off your overhead
just to get a little bit more neutral like the oscillators plus 10 from plus 44 not even neutral
yet and um and then you see kind of like what pokes its head out like right now to me nvidia's
poking its head a little bit out today saying hey you know it's kind of holding up here so maybe that's something I'll focus a little bit more on this week to see
if it could hang in to get some traction if we bounce it's Amazon's holding in a little bit
better but still you know Amazon can change pretty quick Tesla I'm just avoiding Tesla's
been such a problem Tesla reminds me of Boeing when the doors were blowing off you know every other day other day you get some kind of news and, you know, it's green and red and then
it's, you know, one day negates another day and it's below all the moving averages. And now I feel
like it's hard to find the real narrative in Tesla. You know, you thought Elon was going to
get special privileges and then all of a sudden he gets into a spat with Trump and then you thought,
you know, they made up and they didn't. You know, then you hear how EV sales are slowing. But if it's an AI name or a robotics name or
whatever name now, all of a sudden he's starting a political party. How much time is he going to
give? So I think people are exhausted there. If you own Tesla for 10 years, you really don't care.
But if you're trying to play it to get some outperformance and make money short term,
you know, I've been avoiding it for a little bit.
Especially, some people thought, hey, Red Dog,
the deliveries are better than feared.
I'm buying it.
If you bought it last week because the deliveries were better than feared,
all of a sudden you walk in the stand 7%
and you just started a new week on a bad foot.
I would just think that's a little bit more trouble than it's worth right now.
I just think that's a little bit more trouble than it's worth right now.
How active have you been, Scott, when you're looking at this market on a morning like today,
after a long weekend, after this?
Is today kind of a lot of sit and watch, kind of look for setups to start building?
Or what have you done out there today?
I walked in.
The futures was down 40 handles on Friday.
And then when I came in, the spies were only down $1.60.
I actually started shorting some spies for something.
I think I have too many longs on, too many of these little small names, too many quantum names, too many drone names.
And I tried to just start shorting some spies and getting a little bit more flexible.
And it helped a little bit, but I still kind of had a lot of things add up.
You know, I had IONQ overnight, and all of a sudden, you know, it was up two, three bucks.
So that kind of helped me in the down tape this morning, but then kind of fizzled out.
So it's showing me that it needs time to figure out what kind of money raised that was.
I came with a decent amount of Amazon.
I tried adding through 224, but then it just
seemed like the market was too weak where it's not going to let you get paid for adding
on strength. So I kind of reduced a little bit just to be more flexible and keep my calls
for 7-Eleven, which is this Friday. NVIDIA gave us a nice extra trade last Thursday when
it got above 159 to 161. I kind of reduced that day and I bought
a little bit back of that today. Apple, I was really big one week ago and I had a little left
on and I actually got out of the rest of it today into that little push through failure, which I
call a red dog reversal sell. When it gets above, the higher the week comes back below, which was
around 214. And that helped considering it's a 209.68. So now
I'll see how it kind of settles in. So I'm always active. I trade for a living. You know, my order
just ended. I just had probably, you know, you know, I was on the highs of my year. And right
now I'm kind of just trying to figure out what kind of risk do I want to stay with, you know,
through the summer, because I also want to take some time. I'm also going to be traveling. I'm
going to kind of be in and out. So I'll have some looser stops on things.
But I also think there's still some things to stay with, things that are rebuilding.
Like I know we're talking about how ASTS is rebuilding.
That hit a high of 54, so I'd like to rebuy that in some size between, you know, 41 and 44.
It bounced last week off 44.5 and didn't give you such a great bounce.
I'm kind of thinking that I might be able to buy more of that lower.
Dash was great. Dash gave you that ramp up into quarter end and then got a little beat up,
and it's already bounced. 6-244. I was hoping to get bigger there.
Again, I feel like not much has changed, but you have to watch your
sizing based on where the ranges are and based on what you're looking to do. I know a lot of guys
here talk about they're trading their IRAs and they've been in things for years and they don't
really care about the day-to-day, week-to-week. The Alpha team, which is who I trade with,
most of them get a check every month or quarter. so we need to be right every one to three days and if i'm going to stay in swing trades it better they better act better
than the market act special pay you to buy a dip you know pay you to buy high and sell higher
like today crcl was actually a good one you know i came with i posted the chart i'm like if you can
get above and stay above 194 down from 298 maybe there's a good trade there so a lot of guys
re-entered so far it's been a good day trading now does crcl work higher from here so far it's
acting better than tape it's up 7.5 percent it made a high of 205 60 which was one spot so maybe
that's something that it's showing its face for the week to make more money than just the day
and those are the kind of things that i'm looking for to see if, you know, we can get one to three day moves or even one to two week moves prior to earnings season now.
Appreciate that, Scott.
Let's start jumping around the panel here a little bit and see what's on everyone else's mind.
Options, Mike, I know you were up here quickly.
Would love to throw it your direction, see what you've been doing, trading.
Any thoughts around this market?
Hi, Amp. Welcome back.
So, I mean, you know, today's, what, the second down day in the last 10 on the SPY?
You know, we kind of needed this, kind of needed a little rest,
and there's nothing going on this week.
There's no earnings, there's no economic data, right?
You know, the big thing is going to be the focus on tariffs. And, you know, the tariff man
can has already been busy today with all these letters and the market's kind of taking it in
stride, right? You know, we're dipping down, but there's no volume selling on any of this.
For me, I'm so I've loved Amazon. I'm still long stock. I'm still long some options into August,
but I lightened up um
the last couple times it popped because it's not breaking loose and you know eventually i think it
will but right now it's just stuck but it's really this market's still about names uh for me today i
came in and i i'm with scott i'm not touching tesla you know some people in my room they want
to short i'm like you know i'm not shorting it down 7%. I'm not, you know, I'm just going to leave it alone here. It's kind of getting messy.
Everybody in the world wants to defend it. You know, you got Ron Barron out and Dan Ives out
and, you know, panicking, like defending it. But the truth is, is this, you know,
there's a lot of uncertainty and unhappiness around what he's doing on a personal level
there. And that that's problematic for a stock.
So for me, better things to do.
So that said, Uber provided a wonderful choice.
There's also like rhyme or reason.
There's no continuity, right, Options Mike?
It's just like one day it looks good and then some news come out and you get
sideswiped.
One day it looks bad.
You could be, like you said, some people want to short it now and it could be
up $8 tomorrow before it goes lower again later this week.
It's just, you know, there's really no way to gauge it.
You know, I was trading Tesla almost every day for a lot of this year, and I've just stopped.
Because to your point, you can't tell what it's going to do minute to minute or day by day.
It's just gotten too chaotic.
I got to say, it's really funny, Mike, because it's like every time we're on each week, we're always focused on the same thing. Like two weeks ago, we were both buying
the 149, 150 calls in the video, waiting for that to go. Last week, we were buying Apple 203,
waiting for that to go. I guess we're from the same technical school because we look at setups,
we do our homework, and we see what gives you a good risk-reward play and what's harder. So it's actually pretty funny.
I was born in 1972.
When were you born?
1969, so a couple years before you.
Not much.
But I learned a lot from you, Scott.
When I first started trading, I was paying attention to you
and listening to you all the time.
I learned a lot.
So I go through charts every weekend, every Sunday,
I go and post about 100 charts online for everybody.
I do my chart work and make my idea of i like going into that week may or may not trigger
but what i like yeah well that's what you got to do you got to do put you know put what you want
on paper multiple plans and then wait for the market to confirm something into a strategy
because if the market doesn't confirm it it's just a potential plan that that means nothing until
something triggers or gives you a clue to go with it.
Like even Bitcoin.
Like right now, people are asking me, Red Dog, you were wrong.
You said we were going to have a Bitcoin July 4th holiday.
I'm like, okay.
I just was kind of being cute.
I thought maybe that could happen.
But all in all, I'm looking at the chart of IBIT and I'm looking at Bitcoin above 107, which I thought was kind of a key-ish spot, 106.80.
And I think Bitcoin looks just fine, even though I'm not getting paid. ibit and i'm looking at bitcoin above 107 which i thought was a kind of a keyish spot 10680 and
i think bitcoin looks just fine even though i'm not getting paid i'm i'm with you i'm in i own
the stock ibit the etf right i'm not sitting in anything special i'm like i can sit in this
yeah i'm waiting because i it looks good right and i can sit in it and yeah but it's fair you
know went from an a an a play now it's like hanging on to being an a minus and it's fair. It went from an A play. Now it's like hanging on to being an A minus.
And it's got to prove that it can get back to being the A focus for it to clear 62 and change and then 112.
I think the big change on it is institutions have taken more control of it.
And it moves more with the markets now because all the big banks and all the ETFs have so much of it.
Yeah.
When you get a little pullback today, it tends to come in a little bit at the market instead of trying to trade.
Remember, it used to trade against the market often.
Yeah, it's had a few different identities.
Sometimes it has an identity crisis.
Sometimes it takes on a mind of its own.
So right now, I feel like it's kind of caught between like, I don't even know.
What would you say the identity of Bitcoin is this week?
I would say it's in neutral.
It's not really.
It's holding it fine.
It's a little bit of a risk asset.
It's still a little bit about the chaos of government and overspending.
And it's a little bit of war-ish type stuff.
So it's got a little bit, a lot of everything working for it, actually.
What I find is I've been focusing on the name.
So I did, you know, I was watching Coin today
and that spike when it took out
the opening five-minute candle,
I jumped on CoinL.
I didn't like the options on it.
They were only the weekly options had volume.
Everything else had no volume.
And I'm a big guy that there's no volume on a strike.
I'm not touching it, right? I'm going to let it pass because, you know, market makers could have their way with you.
So I jumped on CoinL for a nice there. MSTR has been holding in nicely. It looks like, you know, if it can break this 430 area, I think that one can run. It's been, you know, sitting there trying to get 420 today. Hood had another bounce back today. I kind of consider Hood now another Bitcoin name, the way it's been trading with all the news on crypto. Somebody said, I think you brought up
Uber. I'm sure that was beautiful out of the gate today. Yeah, that's turned into the anti-Tesla
trade. Yeah. Yeah. No, it seems like the Bitcoin stocks, which we think are Bitcoin stocks,
are making you think that Bitcoin is going
to have another move and we're going to get above $110 and $112 at some point in July.
That's what it kind of feels like. I agree. And the difference is the miners did run a little
last week, but for the most part, the miners are not participating in this rally overall.
They had a little bit of a move last week, but the Mars, the riots, the clean sparks,
they're trying to perk up, but they still don't look good to me.
No, well, I think what happened is a lot of people thought that CORZ was going to get taken over.
So those got to push because of that.
And because it doesn't seem like it is, they're getting a little bit of that premium taken out.
Oh, they got taken off.
They bought Coors this morning.
What?
It was for an all-stock.
They got bought out this morning, Coors by Corway.
Oh, they—
For an all-stock deal. That's funny. I didn't really read into it. All I know is I saw it going down an all-stock. They got bought out this morning, cores by Corwee. For an all-stock deal.
That's funny.
I didn't even really read into it.
All I know is I saw it going down and getting beat up, and I just was like, okay, I sold half options on Thursday, and I'm going to lose in the other half, and I just moved on.
Yeah, it's an all-stock deal.
The valuation doesn't look great.
Remember all the analysts talking about 30, 40, you know, these stupid numbers?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Oh, wow.
Hey, Stock Talk's up here.
Don't talk bad about the analysts
so yeah I'm with you I mean the other thing I keep looking at it's like you know the one thing
that you start to worry about when they only will stay with the same names now the markets
brought down the banks have been strong I mean thanks going to earnings next week those the
move on these banks is ludicrous but you, you know, right back to Palantir today, Microsoft continues to act very strong.
As you said, NVIDIA, they really are staying very name specific right now.
You know, the rest of these aren't falling apart, but, you know, you need other leadership to come in to try to help this market broaden out to get that next pop, I think.
And seasonality, you know, starts to work against us here into July.
Yeah, kind of tried with the IWM and the XBI.
Now today the XBI had a full 1.7%,
and the IWM kind of came in a little bit more sloppy,
but it's still okay.
218 was the area the IWM had a hold,
and really 83 the XBI,
so they ought to take you to your limits there today.
But yeah, I hear you about bordering out
and being able to have other sectors trend.
Like it looks like some of the nuclear names are trying to get a little bit better after a pull in for the past few weeks.
It looks like Quantum is trying to stay as a leader, you know, and maybe be able to make higher highs, you know, because they've all been kind of just rebuilding since some of the money raises.
You know, because they've been all been kind of just rebuilding since some of the money raises.
You know, the drone stocks have been kind of in rebuild stage since they also raised money.
So, you know, you're just in this spot that it can't be always easy money.
You know, there was great money, I feel like, when we held the 21 Day two weeks ago,
and you had that really nice move in NVIDIA and Amazon and Google and some other things.
And that was like a really nice three, four days.
Now it feels like it's a little tougher.
So that's why I'm trying to clean up a little bit.
Yeah, I'm definitely lighter.
I mean, I've been taking my portfolio down.
I still have SPY and the Q's and Amazon and IBIT.
I have a little bit of snow and a little bit of apple left.
I have a little bit of snow and a little bit of Apple left.
But I'm down to sizing here because, you know, market tenants tell us this time of year, sometime in the next 30 days, this market should start to pull back.
Yeah, usually next week-ish.
Yeah.
And, you know, let's face it.
We've had a hell of a run off the lows.
Yeah.
Great thoughts there.
Great back and forth.
Great dialogue.
Appreciate that options, Mike and Scott.
I saw Tom Nash up here on stage with us today.
Tom, welcome to the show.
Appreciate you joining us.
What's on your mind today?
What have you been trading?
How are you, sir?
Howdy, folks.
Hope everybody had a great weekend, relaxing weekend, right into this craziness of a Monday and I'm not trading
anything because I don't trade in general I'm a very hardcore long-term investor so
my two cents about today will obviously have to be withla so for disclosure a significant amount of my portfolio is in tesla
and very well-known tesla also take everything i say with the grain of salt given that disclosure
i think today is a great example of of the difference between traders and investors
and sometimes how people who are not that good at making that
separation actually get confused so we've got panelists here who are traders and i heard
scott earlier and the option is a options mike earlier so we got professional traders here they
know what they are they know how they operate they look at it from a cold-blooded perspective and that's how they operate right we've got investors like me who
look at it and say well it's a massive discount because if tesla achieves what the you know the
10-year plan sets out with regards to robotics with the with the robotaxis with fsd with the
energy business and so forth and so forth and so forth right then this is just you know this is just a discount and then the problem is that we are in
the minority because unfortunately retail investors for the most part uh get rattled
and they they forget you know what they say uh investing horizons shrink in red days
and they extend to infinity in green days, right?
So you've got a lot of confused people running.
So my DMs are flooded with,
Tom, what's going on with Tesla?
From long-term investors.
So I want to use this stage today to talk to people who may be a little bit anxious about what's going on with Tesla
and say what's going on, in my opinion,
kind of give my two cents.
So number one, you have to know what you are, right?
If you're a trader, it's not a good stock to be in right now.
It's all over the place, like Scott said.
It's absolutely manic depressive.
It's like a crazy ex.
You don't want to be around.
It's going to slash your tires.
It's going to write nasty things about you.
It's not a fun day.
No, no, no.
That's not the thing.
You want to get as far away from this as possible, right?
As a long-term investor, if you're looking at this, okay, 2030, 2035, none of this matters, right?
If you can solve FSD, it's a multi-trillion dollar solution, right?
Same with energy.
Robotics is a whole different ball game with human and robotics so the you
know the question is does this hurt the pieces potentially in the short term yes so here's where
the problem for investors can be here so if if this backlash turns into a regulatory constraints
to tesla with regards to the the deployment of full-step driving, robotaxis, and whatnot,
if this becomes a regulatory war against Tesla, and we have another unfriendly administration
towards Tesla for another few years, that's going to set them back a while, for sure.
But, and again, not certain that this is going to happen, because maybe this doesn't pan out.
But even in that worst-case scenario, I haven haven't really i'm trying to think back 100 years right
we've never seen technology being being stopped by any regulatory constraints or lack of
infrastructure or lack of cooperation from certain administrations right they'll get
done eventually right so the big question for you as a Tesla investor is,
do you believe Tesla is going to solve FSD?
Do you believe they're going to be able to launch robotaxis on the nationwide deployment?
Do you believe that they will be able to get regulatory approval to do that?
Do you believe that they're leading in robotaxis?
And same question for human robotics with the AGI or the energy etc etc
these are the questions you need to ask yourself I don't want investors trading on the relationship
between Trump and Elon and and kind of getting confused as an investor you have to understand
what you are and what you're not so just relax sit back analyze the company and kind of hedge
your risk from an investor perspective and let the traders do their thing.
Because for an investor, this might be one of the best opportunities.
You know what they say?
Buy when there's blood in the water, especially when that blood is yours.
I think you bring up some valid points.
And I will say that as much as retail controls this stock, you know, to be honest, the institutions control it.
The big money holders control it.
I know there's emotion and it definitely may grease the wheels here and there.
But, yeah, you know, again, like people have gotten filthy rich off this stock.
Congratulations.
You've seen, you know, it become get the premium that everyone gives it.
You've seen it get the premium that everyone gives it.
Now, it's just a matter of whether the erraticness could wind up having it work against it for a little while because the EV market is slowing.
And obviously, there's a whole different narrative to look forward to down the road.
I just think there's a lot of time between now and then.
And yeah, just know your time frame. Again, if you're looking to get paid now for July, this probably isn't the best stock to trade unless you define your risk.
Maybe like today you buy a call spread versus a stock just in case.
Or if you think it's going lower, buy a put spread.
But from day to day, it's a drain right now emotionally and I think just P& you know, just P&L-wise, because it's hard to
quantify what could happen next. You could be short overnight, and then all of a sudden,
you know, Elon and Trump have a little bit of a press conference together, and you can get really
hurt too. So anyway, and by the way, I used to trade Tesla every day. I love Tesla. When the
Cybertruck came out, I was on TV, and I'm like, when is Elon ever normal?
You know, when everyone thought that truck was the ugliest thing ever.
So I've given this stock the benefit of the doubt more than any other stock, and I probably will again.
I'm just – right now, for me, I'm avoiding it a little bit until I get some more clarity and I start getting paid more to be in it than out of it.
You know, I'm interested to watch.
Yep.
Say, Scott, let's face it.
It is an ugly truck, but people are still buying it.
But everybody who sees it says, hey, did you see the Cybertruck?
Yeah.
I think it's huge.
When you actually get alongside of one, you're like, oh my God, that thing is massive.
I'm curious on what you thought about the rollout of RoboTaxi.
Obviously, we're a couple weeks from it now, and we're in this period.
I don't even know what, I know they're rolling it out a little bit more to a couple people,
but I wonder if we're in a, I wonder how you're feeling about how this rollout's going to be.
If it's maybe slower than you were expecting a couple weeks ago, same speed.
We haven't heard that that much out of it.
I did see them driving in rain, which was interesting.
It was over to you, Tom.
Okay, sorry about that.
I was speaking to myself again.
I tend to do that.
I think the, I call it kind of the beta, right?
So it was a beta, a limited pilot.
It went as well as you could have hoped, right?
We haven't had any catastrophic incidents.
We haven't had any PR nightmares.
Everything worked, everything functioned.
So I think as a, you have to define your goals for this, right?
So what was the goals
of elon and tesla and this is show proof of concept right they basically needed to show look
this thing costs fraction of a waymo and it does the same thing right so we can do this at scale
waymo can't right that was the point it's like show hey we're you know eons ahead
and a lot of people
talked about well it was supervised they had
a guy in the passenger seat I mean that's
I mean that's normal that's for you know for liability
purposes you gotta have that
not too concerned about that
I watched a few
I haven't had the pleasure to do this
myself I wasn't in Austin at the time
but I talked to a few folks and I watched
a few live streams and whatnot
I think they went as good as it could have
the biggest question for Testa
again, with this, what's the next
stage, right, so
and that's going to have to be, I think
they have to strike while they are in his heart
people have seen it, the proof of concept
is there
can he move
at the same speed that people
are expecting? Probably not. Elon has been
kind of known to
be very liberal with
estimated
dates of releases
of products.
But on the other hand,
I don't think he's going to release
something that's half-paid.
So to me, it was
if you want to score, probably like an 8.5 out of 10.
Still supervised, but worked as good as it could have.
The bigger question is, can he keep kind of a level head and work with this administration
so he gets kind of a clear path from a regulatory perspective to start getting a little bit more
support as far as kind of a more nationwide launch we'll see but i mean again i know it's it's weird
to hear this but right now july 7th i is the most bullish i've been on the stock and this company, right? And at this price, even more. And turbulence happens, you know, crazy things every day happen,
especially when you mix two personalities like Elon and Trump,
probably two of the most explosive personalities you can imagine.
And I alluded to this earlier.
You can't have the innovator thinker Elon andon and then not have the you know the crazy elon
it's a package deal you're gonna have the guy who has like you know 17 wives 47 kids and whatever
like everything you know it's kind of the package right he's a probably are the one of the best
innovators we've seen in our lifetime and we'll see. He's done really great things.
So can he manage the relationship with Trump in a way that doesn't get in the way of what they're about to achieve?
I certainly hope so.
We'll find out.
You know the funny thing that you just said there?
Because everyone knows I'm pretty active.
I trade for a living and I uh i've been with tesla a lot so i'm always like when when tesla's above the 21 day
elon's a genius when tesla's below the 21 day he's a little uh he's a little cynical he's a
little crazy he's a little wonky so you you could you know you can call him whatever you want based
on how the action is and create the narrative. But the bottom line is, you're right.
He is one of the best in our time.
And thank goodness we have him.
And I kind of feel bad what the administration did.
He went in there to cut costs and do the right thing.
And it feels like the tough love that he wanted to give, they just basically kicked him out and said, you know what?
It's too tough.
We'll let someone else do it because we don't want to look bad.
And that's what Washington's been doing for freaking 20 years right now, which sucks. Excuse my French. It is what it's too tough we'll let someone else do it because we don't want to look bad and that's what washington's been doing for freaking 20 years right now which sucks
excuse my french it is what it is and he tried to clean it up a little bit and now you know maybe
at some point it'll it'll it'll you know blossom a little bit but for right now it's like more of a
tarnish i think it was a little bit naive to be be honest. And I hate to say that, but I mean, expecting politicians to spend less money is a little bit naive.
Well, I also didn't think he thought there would be such fair-weathered friends.
Like, all of a sudden, he's traveling the country on private planes and hanging out with Trump for I don't even know how long.
And then they get into one little argument, and all of a sudden, they go nuclear on each other.
That's crazy. You know, long. And then they get into one little argument and all of a sudden they go nuclear on each other. That's crazy.
You know, it's like where they really even,
like that's why politics is such smoke and mirrors
and everyone gets so frustrated
because it's like, you know,
once they get in office,
they're already working to get in office again.
You know, there are parties based on, you know,
where they think they can get the votes
and then they're working for themselves
versus the people.
It's just a problem.
Politics is just a problem, and I try not to think about it
because it's very frustrating, and we can't really control it.
As much as we say we could vote, it's still hard to control policy
and what's going on.
He should have taken a play from Michael Jordan's playbook,
not the basketball one, the one with the Republicans buying sneakers.
That was a brilliant statement by Jordan back in the day.
What was he saying?
Well, they've asked him, why haven't you been political ever?
And he said, because Republicans buy sneakers too.
All right, I get it.
Well, I've had that before.
I've had, you know, I'm the chief strategic officer at T3 Live,
and every now and then the CEO and CSO, I mean the CFO are like, red dog, stop talking politics.
We have Republicans and Democrats that like technical analysis.
I'm like, well, I try to be a centrist in the middle, and if I'm pissed off, I'm going to talk.
And if people don't want to deal with it, then I don't need them as subscribers.
I'm rarely ever far left or far right.
I'm kind of a moderate in the middle,. I feel like some things need to be said.
And if someone doesn't want to hear me say them,
I block five to ten people every week on Twitter
just when I see what I say sometimes gets crazy responses.
But anyway, Michael Jordan did a little bit better.
I think the bottom line of that is, though, right?
Politics is a muck.
Tesla, you might have thought maybe, again,
Elon was naive for thinking some things
we were probably naive for thinking he was done with this i feel like some people thought hey
maybe you know after he said sorry for the the epstein one was an interesting comment but that
seems the one that he was saying sorry about it felt like after that like hey maybe we'll keep
this chilled out a little bit and we're at the point of no and no matter if elon wins here
in the long term the short term is politics is never a win you know so it feels like this next
year year and a half we might be distracted a lot and i think the real thing if you're a tesla
long-term investor is the rollout of robo taxi and i don't think you're gonna see much with
with optimist but like uh what's actually happening you know um and then the price will
probably just be crazy over the next year year and a half probably within a range would be my
guess if the market stays strong if the market dumps tussle a bit more well going into the seven
the other side was i think a lot of us looked at this and probably yourself included and said
these are two massive egos how are they going to coexist and i think a lot of us kind of said
there's probably going to be a blow up between these two egos at some point. And here it is. Did I think it was going to be this big of a blow up? No, no, I did not. But I did think that at some point the heads were going to butt too hard and they were going to separate ways. And, you know, here we are now.
This starting a whole other political party, I think, is a whole different wrench here in the whole situation.
So we'll kind of see how that plays out.
Yes, and now he'll have both parties hating him and overseas because he was with Trump.
So it's just a lot of people working against you when he really tried to do something that, I guess, wasn't appreciated.
Tom's point is the opposite of what Jordan did. when he really tried to do something that, you know, I guess, wasn't appreciated.
Tom's point is like the opposite of what Jordan did.
Jordan said he didn't want to play politics,
and now he just pissed off both sides instead.
Interesting tactic.
If everyone is mad at you, is anyone mad at you?
That's the question.
Maybe that's the strategy he's playing.
Just piss everyone off a little bit.
So we got a bunch of people. Yeah, let's go ahead and throw it around a little bit, Evan we got a bunch of people, yeah.
Yeah, let's go ahead and throw it around a little bit, Evan.
I saw Shai jumped up here.
Shai, I would love to see what, if you have a take around the Tesla stuff here, of course, on this kind of slow, choppy Monday, and then anything else that you're watching that may have stuck out to you.
Yeah, I mean, some commentary on my end regarding Tesla.
Yeah, I mean, some commentary on my end regarding Tesla.
Again, this is coming from a late Tesla shareholder because I got into it on the post-EV narrative.
So my cost base is around 170s.
I think it was like a year or two ago.
I started really building a position.
I got into Tesla due to the AI software vision.
So I really invested in a company that was really aiming to change the way
the world moves and how it stores energy I did not expect to get into this
holding becomes like some kind of political movements that's something that
is exhausting as a shareholder that's something I just don't want to
underwrite in any of my investments. Do you get any grief from the
fiancé about it, or no?
Oh, yes. I'm not allowed
about Tesla. Listen, there's a hidden cost
in there that we don't talk about always, but that's one of them.
Yeah, the Cali tax.
I don't even think it's that because I know a couple,
but yeah.
But, no, so I think
if it wasn't for the disruptive
nature of what Tesla is trying to solve, which is essentially building the AI network for mobility and robotics, like I'd probably close the position, put it is the biggest ham of mankind history, which is physical AI, it's a tough pill to swallow, but it's a pill I want to swallow because it's worth the risk.
And I think the inevitability of autonomy and inevitability of humanoids, that's real for me.
I think the timeline is nobody can tell it could be
two years it could be five years it could be two months nobody can tell but i do think that point
b a to b the b location is he's going to solve it is a reality so i'm willing to stomach uh probably
a dead couple years like i really do think that if this is a real thing he's trying to pursue
Like, I really do think that if this is a real thing he's trying to pursue, maybe it's going to last until the end of next year.
Or, like, another theory is he got a taste of what power is like.
And as soon as him and Trump just got into, like, fit, he got essentially isolated from that room and he wants that power back.
And so maybe that's why he's launching a third party.
He wants to be in the room again this is a pawn for some kind of political movement in order for him get his hand in the
door again i don't know what it is but when you're that stupid freaking wealthy i'm sure when you get
a taste of the power that he had for a couple months of this year that's something you can't
buy back and you have to maybe do a move like this form the third party uh i don't know if it's
going to work or not but that could be an angle again never read anything about that it's just a
guts tin hat theory of mine but regardless i'm not selling the position i'm not adding the position
if it gets in my 170 180 range i think the risk or reward is definitely there
to build that position again for me not Not saying it's going to get there.
I just think it's going to be in a very digestive range bound trade.
You also have to ask yourself what kind of disruptive company in a long secular
growth theme in the market right now is trading the same value as five years ago.
I think maybe on one hand you can count how many companies are essentially been stuck
five years ago to today that aren't a dinosaur company and an early disruptor in a secular
growth thing.
Tesla's one of those companies.
So knowing that I'm going to be patient, but I'm not going to be adding just because it's
down 8% today.
I'm also not going to be adding when it's a trillion dollar market cap with 2% operating
margins, but I'm also not going to sell.
Like I want, to be honest, I want more blood in the water, but to really add.
And I think right now it's not as bloody as you'd think.
But either way, I think the mission is still there.
I just think it's the narrative distortion is real for the stock,
and it's something I just don't feel comfortable adding.
Other than that, yeah, today was an interesting day.
So I think the anti-Elon trade is doing really strong.
You're seeing, wow, Rock Lab just hit an all-time high at 9% today.
That's up a lot.
I don't know what ASTS is doing, actually,
but Rock Lab is really going to be the major
beneficiary of any kind of elon drama just because they are they have transformed into the satellite
launching rocket launching company to a full-on spice prime so there is going to in theory be
be some deal flow from spacex to rock lab potentially if you know escalates so also
people were like naturally
pointing towards like rivian too and one of the things that i think rocket lab has that rivian
doesn't is you know trump also doesn't seem to like evs in general taking away that 7 500 tax
credit whereas you know trump seems to more be of a fan of the space sector so well it seems like
the sector of favor when you're playing that like move away from Elon Musk, he's better in space than his reviews.
Well, I think the Rivian argument is idiotic because it's B2B.
Like, we're not talking B2C.
Like, consumer behavior, fine, it might change slightly to buy Rivian over Tesla, but the real money to be made on an anti-Elon trade is,
where's the government funds going?
Where's the B2B funds going?
That's not the Rivian angle. So, lab is that angle for that uh ascs i think like maybe in a year if
they just need some more um maturity in my opinion in order to get the media flow but i think it's a
net positive for them as well honestly the whole space sector like redwire might be one as well but
rock labs the majority so i think they're catching
a bit they're still and they're expensive now uh the risk and reward is definitely different than
when i got in at five but it's still long term it's a two trillion dollar economy in the next
10 to 15 years they're still under 20 billion dollar market cap so not advising you buying it
uh i own a substantial portion of my holdings
is in rock lab but it's catching a bit for that reason other than that um in novix caught a major
win today uh they're up 15 uh that's another classic example on when you prove you're no
longer a science project uh and they got their first major order today
and I think that is a great concept win especially in I want to say it's like a 1.2 billion units
smartphone market so if their sci-fi tech is proving to actually be a reality that differentiation
in their battery offering solution is a real thing that vendors are not going to be able to match and flip of switch so they're catching a bid i think
it's uh maybe potentially have a big run don't know uh another one primed their medicine prme
up another 26 this is one of the quicker uh multi-baggers. I didn't anticipate them being the ones to catch that much of a bid.
But a month ago, I went pretty hard at the CRISPR names.
Maybe it was even a month ago.
Maybe it was a couple weeks ago.
But that Verve Therapeutic acquisition of a $1.3 billion valuation was a substantial re-rating for the whole buck it was my initial
thesis because again another science sci-fi type of theme genomics there really wasn't a great
benchmark on valuation the human data is definitely pro uh accelerating and validating the science but
it's still not at the point where people are willing to say okay this is real but that 1.3 billion
acquisition of verve put a like quantitative stamp of what the low the worst quality of
crisper genomic names caught for uh their tech 1.3 billion i was like all right at that time
prime medicine was around a couple hundred million market cap i was like they're the most disruptive among all the names yes seven to eight years away for sure the furthest along from any
kind of real human data but this is a name that i was like i think it's going to re-rate just from
that alone i thought beam therapeutic would be the biggest winner because they own a substantial
portion of prime medicine and also i think they're the best combination of highest ceiling, highest floor among that whole group.
They're not really catching a name as much, a bid as much, up 25%.
But either way, I thought Intelia, Beam, and Prime would catch major bids over the near term.
And for some reason, Prime is up like 180%, while Intelia is up like 35 and beams up 25 but i still think beam and intelia
are names that deserve more of a re-rating but yeah small caps collar breather uh pounds here
is just chugging along again it's almost at 140. unity is the name that i don't it's catching a bid
today i have not seen any kind of specific strength news catalyst to drive that
7% performance on a week
Week day, but it might just be I don't know roaring kitty talk. I don't follow that space. Maybe he's there's some hints there
I saw a lot of a bullish call activity come in for that one. Oh
Maybe that's I know uh technically speaking they're finally
breaking that stupid uh three-year spiral down like right now so maybe it's breaking out on that
reason alone but those are like unity is one of those names as a duopoly in the gaming engine space
awful freaking ceo that dug into the ground got a new ceo a year ago coming the fats things are turning around a bit and in a
market where we're hitting close to an all-time highs and a lot of names have been winners this
year have been going up just based on multiple expansion which is not my favorite kind of
performance like i think the eyeballs go elsewhere and like high quality tech that's been
somewhat um anchored down due
to poor corporate governance.
And Unity fits that bill and they have a high floor because I think a lot of like the Metas
and Netflix out there would love to acquire Unity's technology into their own ecosystem
going forward.
So it's got a high floor and also like it's not the most expensive name that they do prove
any kind of ad engine momentum in their ecosystem this
is a name that can really run really quickly this haven't done that so yet so
that's all my plate today I'll pass it back to you Evan or and don't know which
one's the MC thanks shy just I got a jump I got gotta be on the radio here for the last 10 minutes but that was
good appreciate you scott as always uh love these mondays anything you uh want to throw out here in
the last minute or two or seconds you got nope he's gotta go brian i know you also tend to go
at the top of the hour i really want to make sure we get her from you on this basis how you doing
today sir um i feel like we maybe had a little bit of less Brian Lund recently. You on vacation or something?
Or you just don't like us as much?
I can accept both.
I don't hear Brian. Is this me?
I don't hear him either.
I actually
don't even... Oh yeah, I do see him, but
he shows up as a listener for me, but it's probably a bug.
Yeah, he's probably coming back up. I don't want as a listener for me, but it's probably a bug.
Yeah, he's probably coming back up. I don't want to go... I'll come to you right after Logical.
I don't want to, because I know he does tend to go at the top of the hour, so I want to make sure.
We get Brian Lund, who my guest is coming right back up here, to come in and share some of his thoughts.
Brian, how you doing?
Good. Can you hear me now?
We got you now.
You got me now, okay. Yeah, I was just saying I don't like you.
There we go.
Honestly, at least I respect someone being truthful.
Yeah, you know, it's summer.
I live by the beach.
I got kids that are home from school.
So, yeah, I've been a little less involved online.
But, you know, it's interesting.
I've been talking to a lot of subscribers and people have a really easy time holding in down markets because they hold on to their losers. But sometimes people have a very hard time holding on in a bull market. And, you know, I mean, when I say a bull market, I mean like this run from the April lows.
I mean, when I say a bull market, I mean like this run from the April lows.
And I've got a lot of positions open.
And I looked at all my positions at the end of the day on Thursday.
And I was sitting there thinking to myself, I feel like I should be selling some stuff.
And the problem is, is just because you feel some way doesn't mean you should do it.
I mean, you know, selling something because it's up a lot is not a methodology. Sometimes it makes you feel good, but it's not a methodology. So I went through and I
just looked at all my positions one by one and I couldn't find a reason to sell any of them.
Now, to be fair, I don't have any short term, highly concentrated outsized positions. These
are all positions that I've been just slowly building over the last
few months as we came off the bottom. But I looked at all of them and they're like, they're all above
the eight EMA, which is the ultra short moving average. I mean, I don't even really start
thinking about trimming things until they maybe get down to the eight or the 21. If you look at today's action, it's pretty, you know, there's nothing crazy today.
I mean, we just have a minor pullback. If you look at the weeklies, I know it's not a good idea to
look at weeklies in the middle of the week, but I mean, we have so much room to come back in and
still be in a very, very normal pullback or small correction.
So I'm just doing nothing.
I'm just holding and just seeing how we do the next couple of days.
Do we make a trip to the 8th?
I mean, it doesn't look like we're going to.
I mean, we kind of bounced off it today a little bit.
Um, you know, so I'll see tomorrow. Tomorrow feels like it should be the day when we should bounce.
So I'll see tomorrow.
Tomorrow feels like it should be the day when we should bounce.
If we don't bounce tomorrow or if we bounce tomorrow and then we we give that back on Wednesday or Thursday, then I might start trimming some stuff.
But right now I'm just trying to be hands off. You know, I've been telling my subscribers for the last three months.
This is a leave it alone market. You know, unless, of course, you're like a super aggressive day trader.
Then, you know, then you have to manage things. But i just that's not the mode i'm in right now so yeah that's that's
kind of what i've been doing this this summer i appreciate you brian are you kind of how are
you approaching these next couple weeks though is it more of the same? Taking any trades? Like, are we just summer?
That's fair enough.
I mean, this week also doesn't have a lot on it.
So maybe I'm even surprised you're here this week and not next.
Yeah, I mean, I think Scott and Mike were talking earlier in the call
that about mid-July is traditionally when the market will kind of rest
and pull back.
I'll be watching it.
But we could certainly just do a little sideways action.
You know, one of the things we've seen on this run is we've seen corrections through time instead of price.
You know, I'm doing some travel.
I'm going out to Toronto at some point this year.
The future-proof thing's coming here.
I'm going to Binghamton, New York.
So I'm going to be doing some traveling or I won't be in front of my computer screens. But honestly,
I got to tell you, I think this is just, there's a concept that I'm working on about seasonality.
And it's not seasonality in terms of the market seasonality. It's like our own personal seasonality.
you know, the market seasonality. It's like our own personal seasonality. And it can be everything
from the seasonality of a day, like the idea that you can be on point for eight hours a day at your
top performing levels, I think kind of ridiculous. It's seasonality for the week. Are there better
days in the week that you trade better? It's seasonality for the year, right? Are there
periods of the year where you're more in tune? Or do you have situations like me where like you got kids home and you're traveling? So
I've really been trying to get in tune with my seasonality in all those different timeframes
and try to just be involved in the timeframes that are best for me when I am at my optimal.
And obviously the market has to work with you at that time.
But I, so I'm kind of doing a little bit of a trade less, make more right now.
So, and it's the best way I can describe it.
I don't know if we have you here.
If we don't, let me know though. But let's keep it going
logical. Hello, good sir. How are you doing today, sir? We're watching this market.
Hey, pretty ugly day for me today, but I've been having an incredible year. I mean,
my taxable account, which is 94% of the assets like the IRAs I don't really pay
much attention to but taxable account was hit 70% year-to-date on Thursday so
it's just incredible performance but I am down 6% today so clearly ugly but I
look at a lot of the charts of my portfolio and you know live and die by
the volatility so you know I you can't
have those plus eight percent days if you're not willing to stomach the minus
six percent I look at the individual names in my portfolio and I think Brian
was mentioning it earlier like you know I keep going down the list every single
day every single trading day and I just look at them and I'm like you know I do
a couple checks every day I'm like, do I own enough dollar amounts in my holdings?
Like, I have companies that I think are more so higher conviction investments, longer term.
But then I also have a fairly big chunk, especially in a market like this, that is allocated to more so shorter term trades,
this momentum stuff like the Bitcoin miners have been ripping.
So I just kind of look at these positions constantly
and I say, I ask myself a few questions.
One, do I have enough dollar amounts to ride this position
in the amount of exposure that I'd like to have?
So if I don't, then I I will add if something is overextended
if something's just been ripping non-stop non-stop non-stop I'll take a
look at the chart if I feel that it went vertical for a little bit maybe that's a
good place to trim a little bit and you know people will say well why are you
gonna trim your winners it's because I'm running on a good amount of leverage
right now so I need to be smart about where I trim and where I add.
So for example, today we had a decent pullback.
And I think Brian was talking about how like you look at them and, you know,
a lot of these names are just sitting, they pulled back right to their 90 MAs,
a couple of bounced off their 21 EMAs.
Buying, you know, those spots are in an uptrend are typically not a bad spot to be adding.
So that's what I was doing today was, you know, it's obviously a red day. That's what I want to
be adding a bit. Um, yeah, so all I do is just kind of shift around holdings, add to some trim
to others, but I don't really feel the need to exit positions for the sake of a red day or anything like that
um yeah just I you know I think we've had a hell of a ripper off the bottom and expecting volatility
expecting pullbacks as normal just being able to survive through that volatility making sure that
positions don't go completely like upside down on you um in terms of the trades at least maybe the
investments you can give a lot more leniency there and care a little bit less about technicals for
sure give them a little bit more breathing room that said i mean yeah i i still am very much
leverage long i still have a good chunk of uh calls and names that you know i feel can do really
well and i can look at the volume on the charts and determine that,
hey, look, these things look like they've been getting accumulated.
And so, yeah, when I talk about options, I'm not playing weeklies or monthlies.
I'm typically going three to six months out, sometimes a year plus out.
So that's kind of how I look at calls in terms of leverage.
Yeah, it depends, right?
Like sometimes I'll start a position and maybe I'll like, let's just use easy numbers.
I'll buy 500 shares of something and then I'll add 10 calls on top of it.
And those could be like three, four, five months out.
I did that with like SolarEdge. I feel like it's potentially the bottoming point of the cyclicals that are rate sensitive, like solar, like the home builders, Builder First Source, BLDR, another one that I think could get going.
I did that with like SolarEdge.
I think another one that seems imminent for a breakout is clearly Bitcoin.
That's why I've been, you know, I have three different Bitcoin miners right now.
Cypher has just been showing insane strength.
Riot has been doing very well.
Obviously there's like the iron in the cores, but I've left those positions now and I'm
focused on others.
Another one is DGXX, like, you know, a name like that has bounced perfectly off the 9 EMA
today. So it just feels hard to get, you know, like overly bearish or concerned.
Again, ugly day for me, but as long as things aren't necessarily breaking down,
you know, we just passed this insane bill,
which is going to increase government deficit spending.
They're going to expand the, you expand the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.
It's very difficult.
I think it's impossible, actually, to have a recession with such levels of deficit spending.
So with recession basically off the table at this point, the downside for equities,
if you're bearish, you're going to have to be fighting, you know, this extremely high fiscal spend, which generally speaking, it provides fuel
to the upside. You know, whether or not J-PAL cuts rates or J-PAL steps down or whatever
happens with that nonsense drama, we know that in a year from, you know, less than a
year from now, we're going to have a new Fed chair.
So, you know, rates are going to come down.
Clearly, they're going to appoint someone who is willing to play ball.
And, yeah, so you have a huge, you have a bunch of tailwinds.
You have this big bill that was just passed.
You have rates coming down uh you have you know tariff deadlines being uh basically extended
through august 1st another month which means that he really does want to get some you know trade
deals obviously the the japan news today was kind of dumb uh considering that they you know own a
big chunk of our treasuries uh i think the bond market is what made Donald basically capitulate on the tariff front
early on. So I don't know why he keeps starting to fight there. I don't know. But I don't know.
I don't think that there's just too many things that are pushing to the upside at this point.
You can see in the tone of treasury president Scott, the Treasury Secretary, sorry, not
President, you know, he went from we need to go to austerity, we need to reduce
fiscal spend. And then now he's flipped entirely and said, no, no, no, this bill
is going to help us spend less because it's going to grow more and our revenue is
going to outpace us. But I mean, it's just total bullshit.
But what I can say is that whenever the government is going to spend that much money, you just
got to assume that the dollar of your value is going to get inflated away even further,
which means that in these kinds of environments, you absolutely need to own equities or other
assets.
I think equities are the best assets to own in an inflationary environment
because they are dynamic.
The management teams can understand what's going on
and whether it's be dynamic in their pricing strategies.
Every kid born in America is now getting $1,000 accounts to buy DZTFs for these stocks.
Yeah, the Ponzi is getting freaking pumped.
Like, I just don't understand how you can come up with any sort of bearish narrative right now.
Look, I think when the facts were different two, three months, three months ago, four months ago,
we didn't have all of these things happening in our favor to the upside.
Now you kind of are building up this melt up uh bubble
scenario in my view so i i'm just seeing this as um it just seems silly not to be extremely long
in this market and you know down days and red days and pullbacks etc are going to happen but
if you want to be able to capture the meat of this move in this bull market, then you can't be scared.
You got to lean in. That's what I'm doing.
Anyways, I saw a Samson go up, so I'll pass it.
Yeah, I mean, I'll just go real quick because I saw Ali joined up.
I mean, my thing is that, you know, these things did not necessarily exist as far as bullish narratives goes or bullish backdrop narrative goes a couple of months ago because everyone was predicting recession.
But now coming the other side,
that's kind of what has me a little bit cautious,
not necessarily a concern to start shorting the market
or start decreasing my leverage or anything like that.
I mean, I know you're really going to act a lot quicker
than a lot of people are in terms of things breaking down.
You'll probably see it way before.
I'll probably see it anyway.
But I mean, it is a tangible time
to start taking some profits
and not like go super duper long on certain things
just because you're expected to recover.
I mean, going with momentum makes a lot of sense,
but, you know, sitting on leaps on something
that clearly does not have any momentum in it anymore.
I think that's the part where people have needed to shift.
You know, long-term wise, it's just really noise but uh i'll stop talking now because i i'm kind of interested
to see what uh ali has to see with yahoo finance hi guys how are you yeah what an interesting day
in the markets here but for me what stands out is we did close off of those session lows you guys
were talking about some profit taking and that was immediately where my head went. Maybe this is the first, you know, hint that we could be seeing some more chaos on the trade
and tariff front. And maybe that was a sign for certain investors to just start to book some
profits here. But we've seen over the past few weeks this taco trade at work. Trump always
chickens out to that point. I do think even in the tariff letters,
it said that these tariff rates could go lower depending on the relationship with the country
at the time. And we still have three weeks of negotiations until we get to that point. So
I feel like at this stage of the cycle, where we at with markets, how resilient the economy has been on several
fronts. I don't think this was a panic day. I think the next catalyst in the near term for
stocks is going to be earnings. And we have a very low bar to cross at this point. So as long
as we're able to kind of hurdle over that low bar and have some beats and raises, maybe have
companies come out and say, look,
what we said three months ago, we're in a better than feared outlook right now. I think that will
lead to a lot more optimism on the stock market front as well. So I do think equities are poised
to go higher from here. I've heard from a few of my sources today saying that this is a time to buy
the dip, take advantage of some of this weakness because stocks, you know,
I think are set up and are poised to go higher at this point.
Well said. I was basically saying very similar things.
So I appreciate that.
Awesome.
I appreciate you there, Ali.
What are you watching for this week, though?
There isn't that much going on.
You know, it feels like a lot of the data points we have
or maybe it's earning season is the next thing.
Trade talks seem to be the conversation.
We even got some stuff that that might be delayed towards the end.
So I don't know.
I'm just curious.
Maybe it is just another vacation week.
Maybe I should have, instead of the one week, maybe I should extend it to an extra week. Go do something.
It is a pretty chill week this week. Not a ton of data on the economic front. I mean, we'll have
Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday, I believe. And then we have earnings starting to trickle in. I'm
curious what we'll hear from Delta, especially since they withdrew guidance. I think Delta, a lot of those airliners, some of those more consumer-facing companies,
they could provide a good gauge on how the consumer is feeling at this point.
And we know generally from a lot of the soft data points, a lot of the survey results,
that consumers are a bit cautious.
However, they are still spending.
So even though we see cracks building underneath
the surface, even in the jobs report, right, on the surface, it was all solid. But there are some
cracks that we are seeing on the labor market front. The consumer is still spending. That is
the thing that's going to break the ice with all these cracks, is if the consumer stops spending.
And right now, we've seen this resiliency, especially among those middle to higher income earners. The lower income consumer has been squeezed, continues to be squeezed. But until we see a significant pullback there, I don't think we're going to see that trickle through into a lot of the other economic indicators that we closely watch. And I think we could get a lot of that color
from earnings, from the commentary that we're hearing from executives and on the calls. So I think the start of earnings season is something I'll be watching. And oil was interesting today,
too, after the OPEC surprise production output increases, the fact that we saw crude rise a
little bit today maybe speaks to the
demand picture, but there's a few different stories to watch. You mentioned trade.
It feels like we're kind of in this wait and see mode now until August 1st, but until then,
I think markets are going to be sensitive to headlines, but I don't think we're going to see
a significant overreaction there. I appreciate the thoughts there.
Wolfie, I want to bring you into the conversation as well.
We'll definitely circle around and touch in some more of those topics.
I hope Kevin joins us up here too,
and we can dig more into that oil sector,
because I thought we would have had some certain movements
off of the information that you were kind of talking about this weekend.
We didn't necessarily get that.
So we're in an intriguing place.
But Wolfie, I want to bring you into the conversation here.
I don't know if you have any thoughts on what Allie was talking about there
and anything else.
I know earlier what Scott was talking about.
I forget what name it was,
but it was one of those old boring names that you've been talking about,
like a tech name that he said something good about,
and you were excited.
I saw it in the moat.
So what's going on in your world?
What was he talking about?
I don't know. But it was something like that know I don't know if it was a tech name I went long circle that's like the
only trade I put on it's worked it's been working all day I don't I don't
think that's what he was talking about but I really don't remember it's been
about an hour now so but I had a mental note when I was going to come to you.
I have a question, though.
Is Allie the one that coined the taco, Nate,
or got the taco conversation started?
Might have been.
I do love a good taco trade.
Oh, there we go.
There it is.
All right, cool.
So we got a taco Monday.
That's great.
No, so I think a lot of what was said, you know,
we talked about some of it last week when we were talking about markets all-time highs and all this.
No one saw it coming.
And I think Stock Talk and I were the ones that kind of like had a conversation about it or agreed we didn't disagree about it.
So shout out to us.
That's probably the ammo
that you're going to see Trump use.
And it seems like this administration
this time around, everybody for
the beginning of the year is using the playbook from the last
time. And this time around, I feel like it's
you can use the
this now, you can use
the stock, you can use that playbook where you can use
the stock market as
basically the goalposts when
stock market looks like and then bonds are screaming uh trump and beset and lutnik and
everybody else kind of falls in line gets in front of the cameras and does their best jim
kramer impersonation tells you to buy buy buy and they tell you that you know things are too crazy
and they're we're gonna make deals and we're gonna this we're going to do that and then you get this quiet period and as long as you get this quiet
period and they just kind of hush hush put things in the background we kind of continue to march
climb that wall of worry uh you know unwind some of that uh put protection and some of this uh you
know uh negative positioning and then when when the scoreboard's
there and it's, you know, all time highs or we've we're in a bull market and, you know,
nothing can stop us now. That's basically your your ammo for Trump to come out and use it as
capital, for lack of a better term, to kind of just do what he wants to do, whatever he wants
to push through his administration's agenda.
And I think that's kind of what we're saying here.
I don't think that, like, if you looked at some of these tariff numbers today, for example,
they make less sense than the first tariff board.
I mean, it's just kind of like, guy feels like charging you 27%, he's going to charge you 27%. One thing that I thought was interesting was Japan's tariffs actually went up from 24
to 25. It went up 1%.
So here's the question for you, Evan.
we start out of
number and you
do nothing and you risk
getting a 1% tack on,
is it really worth the headache?
I don't think so. So I don't know
what's going to come of it. I think i think to some extent some some places might play chicken with him um and then
you know we saw the headline today kicked it out to august um so yeah i don't know man i don't know
what i think if you're trading around you know his headline to headline you're not gonna do okay i do think you can use it as guide
posts uh use it you know as extremes and sentiment gauges and you know for me for the most part i've
outside of uh last week when i took a couple of evan trades like apple um i've been i've been
avoidant of you know some of these names that you guys talk about. And that's kind of like what you started with.
If you just take a look at like, I think I mentioned Oracle.
I bought Oracle last week.
I think I mentioned it last Tuesday.
I don't remember the exact day.
But in two days, that stock retested a prior high, ripped to an all-time high.
I think it ripped like $20 in two days, right?
So I prefer those
those types of names i'll give you some more names i got you i got you a nice little list evan um you
take a look at something like ati sweet spot for metals manufacturing aerospace data centers um
trading at uh at the highest level straight that since 2008 this was like a a real winner from the housing boom in
the early 2000s take a look at tt it's an air conditioning name you know people are are hanging
on to things longer they're people are not moving as much as they were with rates where they're at
so maybe they take some of that money put it into repairs anyway stock trading at all-time high
today tapestry tapestry's coach.
They bought out, I think, I know they bought out Kate Spade,
but I think they also bought out Versace a few years back.
During the throes of the pandemic, the thing was trading single digits.
Today, knocking on 100s doorstep all-time high.
We talked about a few weeks ago uh i think
daily stock picks mentioned um carnival i told them you know but for me the best of breeds rcl
take a look at all of those names on fire right so i think there's a lot of places for
for things to work um i think at this stage if you don't feel like you have an edge in whether it be like small caps or whatever, I feel like at this stage, you're going to have to kind of think second order, third order, or think kind of like of building positions for potential drawdowns.
drawdowns. I'm still in the camp. I think that given how much money we're going to spend,
I know Logical said, yeah, it's going to be tough for it to be a bear market. I don't disagree,
but I do think it can set up for a situation where you have a sagflationary environment.
And in situations like that, you probably get a little bit more dispersion than people like,
and you kind of trade a flat market basically you you rip higher
you sell off you sell off you rip higher um they rotate name name sector to sector got a lot of
winners under the under the hood like really compound but then that money has to come from
somewhere so a lot of these uh winners that you know people rang the register on for four or five
seven years they kind of just kind of trade
sideways take a look at like tesla like not tesla i'm not talking about tesla there's several of the
mega caps this year uh google for example tesla for example um apple for example etc so i think
that's kind of like where my head's at um i don't that being said i know a lot of times um you know
when i when i say stuff like this i get conflated as like the chief pessimist or whatever. I'm not telling you short stops.
I'm not telling you to, uh, you know, uh, I, I'm in full agreement with you, man. Um,
I've been saying this for like two months. I had a big post on it in the middle of May
where I was saying like, I think it's going to be a time for like, you know, market to chug
along and do just fine. But the real alpha is going to be in the underlying names. And you're going to
see where I saw rotation starting on the first day of the Q3, you know, people rotating out of
what has been working to what has yet to work. I think that's going to be one of the best
environments for people who are willing to do the work and figure out, you know, where is the next,
where is the alpha? Where is the undervalued? where is the growth? There's a lot, like, again,
we saw a strength in the RSP, if anything, in the last week. So I would love to see more stocks do
well, the median stock do well, rather than the average stock do well. And so, you know, there's
a lot of money that can come from, you know, the largest largest and even a small fraction of that money can be very significant inflows for the smaller caps.
Yeah, and I think one of the dynamics that happens on this year so far, for example, is when you get some of these headline-driven or some of these story-sentiment-driven things, sometimes they don't
run them all at once. One example, when
Musk vs. Trump 1.0 kicked off,
people picked their favorite names.
We all own all of them, Rocket Lab, ASDS, etc.
I felt that it was an ASDS more likely to be favorable
because that thing trades on potential contracts,
not on actual launches as of now.
That did end up working.
When it got to the 50s, I told everybody here,
I took my cost principle off.
And then I thought that there's a
catch-up trade in Rocket Lab. And that's exactly what's happening right now. You're getting that
catch-up in Rocket Lab while ASCS consolidates. And then same thing with some of the nuclear
names. I don't have, outside of Ocklo, I don't have any of the sexy nuclear names.
I do have Florilo, which owns part of SMR. and there's a lot of different ways to play it but
for me it seems like you know as as we push through it's basically like hand the baton here
hand the baton there and that kind of sets up for like the most painful type of market
if you're if your positioning is off sides because instead of a situation where we had
you know at the beginning of the year twice where people were just kind of off sides both times
now you have people that are that are positioned in a way where there's a lot more protection,
a lot more hedging, a lot more people that didn't get back in full tilt.
And so that hand the baton, hand the baton, hand the baton, sector to sector, rotate to rotate
kind of keeps that pushing higher and it also kind of keeps that that that bearish uh
sentiment that bearish um anticipation just on their toes like it's hard to it's like it's like
pushing a pushing a um pushing like a beach ball underwater right you can push it you can hold it
you can push it and then all it takes is one little flip and now it's gone right so that's that's one um and then
outside of that i just think you know if you're not if you're not one of these people that's in
something for 10 years and you don't have like a you have visibility into it or five years whatever
whatever term you want to use right uh i think that there are times to pick your shots at names
like tesla i've owned tesla since 2013. Tesla's, if I go back, Tesla's
probably been my best winner for me in my life, made more money trading Tesla than anything else.
There was a year where I was up like a thousand percent. All I did was trade Tesla for the most
part, right? I think there are times where that can work. I don't think this is one of those times,
right? I don't know how the Elon and Trump thing is going to play out. I just don't want to try to guess it. There's going to be a time where everybody's
going to love Tesla. And every day, there's going to be people on your timeline. They're
going to be shitting on it. And every day while they shit on it, they lose. Today's not one of
those times. This is one of those times where they win sometimes. And then the other side of the
other side of the coin wins sometimes. And then you zoom out and you look at the stock and for four years
it just kind of goes sideways with really wide uh ranges so i don't i don't know when that time will
come but when it comes you will know right not just for me but just in general you'll know you'll be
on your timeline you'll see it um and then so the the last thing i want to say is just, I think for the better part of the year, we've seen the dollar come in aggressively.
So I just talked about positioning.
I talked about how this is like a pain trade for bears.
I know, based on some of the stuff that I've read, that positioning in the dollar is as negative as it's been in years.
in the dollar is as negative as it's been in years, wouldn't be shocked to have just
a face ripper reversal type of trade in that.
And so when you, if you're like to pay attention to that, which I'm just saying pay attention
to, I'm not predicting go out and long dollars to sell everything else.
I'm just saying pay attention to it.
If that actually starts to play out, some of these multinational laggards that you know are sensitive to the dollar um they might start to perform and then some of
some of the inverse might happen as well some of these names that have been on fire um might start
to kind of fade and then the last thing is i'm starting to again kick tires i'm sorry i've been
starting to kick tires again on some of these boring names.
Some of these, like, you know,
I started looking at, you know,
one of the names I own, like,
Advanced Auto Parts, on fire today.
All right, on fire the last couple of days, actually.
Haas will be going to break out
on the back of that huge gap up it had
on the back of earnings.
Love to see it, uh probably probably needs a little
consolidation because how aggressively it moved last couple of sessions but i'm paying attention
paying attention to stuff like that take a look at hershey's you know hershey's really beaten up name
uh cocoa prices i think down 54 i'm going off the top of my head so forgive me i might be wrong
sugar prices down significantly broke out of a downtrend and now starting to consolidate a little bit.
Any kind of, you know, continuation there, any kind of sensitivity there, probably rips.
And these are the kinds of names that their options trade, if you're an options trader, especially, their options trade pennies.
And when they move, they can move, you know, multi-standard deviation moves and really pay out
with like limited risk right so that's kind of like what i'm paying attention to currently and
then the last the last thing i'm gonna leave this just for you evan uh caught caught the apple moves
awesome you know closed out a lot of a lot of the trade i would love nothing more than to get just a
reset back to that breakout point somewhere between that 201 to 205 level and
then just have the sentiment go back to being everybody saying oh this is such a piece of crap
why do i trade it of course it's going to do that and then it just kind of sparks uh for the for the
end of the month so that's kind of like where my head's at 204 205 is a level that i'm like you
mother you mother apple come on what what the hell i wanted
to hold this like 207 is what i'm looking back at it yeah everybody wants the 207 210 that's why i
said if you can that's 204 just like wash out the froth people that chased it and then run that'd be
awesome love it lovely good chance at 204 again yeah and your thoughts on the dollar were interesting
too because we have seen you know the dollar obviously struggle so far this year, although there hasn't been a lot of panic on the analyst side, on the institution side.
They tell me that, you know, the dollar has been high for a very long time.
And what we're seeing now is just opportunities elsewhere.
But if we do see the Fed on hold, maintain this higher for longer stance, that
could actually help boost the dollar. And right now, you know, the chance of a July rate cut has
essentially evaporated at this point after we saw that strong labor market report last week.
It feels like it's a real possibility that we might not see any rate cuts throughout this year.
I think Goldman's projecting about six to seven
cuts in 2026 instead. So I wonder how that could potentially affect equities if investors are
disappointed that we don't see a rate cut in July. And then again, we don't see a rate cut in September,
which is what's being priced in right now. How will the markets react to that? So there's just
a lot of intricacies in there when it comes to that policy and what we could see out of the central bank over the next few months too yeah ali this reminds me
of uh that i think it was summer of 22 period where it just kind of like set up for that jackson
hole meeting and i just i just i just feel like we're kind of trading similarly uh you know, with some of the pain trades that have happened.
Some of these oil names have started to kind of pick up.
I think in that summer they picked up as well,
or maybe they peaked there, I don't remember.
But there was a little bit of correlation there.
And then, you know, people were expecting a more sanguine,
for lack of a better term, Jerome Powell.
He came out a lot more hawkish people expected at, um, at, uh, Jackson hole. And that's kind of, I feel like this might be the same setup. It might
be, but I don't think the, the, the hawkish tone is, is what I'd be, what I'd point to this time
around. I think this time around, it's just, I'm going to stand pat and do what I think needs to be
done, which probably gets perceived as hawkish. because then you have like a temper tantrum between, you know, administration and Powell.
So that's kind of like what the logic is on the reversion for the dollar.
Good call.
Yeah.
And to your point, too, I mean, Powell's been very good at telegraphing where he thinks
interest rates are going to go where the central bank is leading.
So I think you sort of have to pay close attention to what he's saying whenever he speaks.
And Jackson Hole is going to set us up for that.
It's literally right before that September meeting.
And then depending on what we see August 1st with a lot of these reciprocal tariffs,
hopefully we have a bit more clarity.
But the longer this can gets kicked down the road, so to speak, the greater uncertainty
it is for the Fed.
We might have more clarity on the market side of things, but it's just going to increase the
unknowns here for the Fed and what trickle through we could see on the economic front
when it comes to growth and inflation. So I think that just builds the case for the
Fed to remain on hold and see what the data says.
We actually played a little bit of a game.
I think it was last week.
We were asking how many rate cuts we think people thought
we were going to have this year.
We had two people say three, two people say two,
and then three people say one.
Wolfie was actually one of the people who said one.
Al, you want to join in here?
I think one, too.
I was on one of our shows the other week.
I said my hot take was that we won't see a rate cut in September.
And the next time we'll see a rate cut is December at that final meeting.
So I will go with that take.
I'm in the same camp.
I think it's kind of like, you know, pardon my French.
But I think it's kind of like a fuck you rate cut at that point.
Yeah.
Logical.
It'll be interesting.
You know, it sets us up for this new Fed chair, too.
I mean, that's going to be probably one of the biggest stories at the start of next year.
Logical.
I also, everyone else up here, I have what they think.
You want to get a little guess in here?
How many cuts you think 2025?
I'm going to still stick with three so I think I think we'll get a 25 and a 50 in the back of oh I think maybe
25 in September 25 and 50s two cuts bro no that's three that be like labor market deterioration or what, what do you, what's driving that for you?
Um, it could be a labor because I mean, look, at the end of the day, we're so sensitive to, is it 4.1? Is it 4.2? Is it 4.3?
Yeah, one 4.3, I bet you the odds shoot back up in a month or so.
So, you know, and also we have like, I think that there's maybe less job openings happening these days.
So potentially it's already impacts of AI where the lower entry level jobs are already being wiped out to a certain extent.
There's like less of them being posted.
So I think that there could be an uptick in unemployment, but I think ultimately, I don't know, I've just been saying essentially that three makes sense to me.
I think we got three last year, even when everybody said, you know, we'd get zero.
I've been holding on to three since the baseline was zero.
So whatever the data is, I don't know. I'm still sticking to my 3 call.
I would just like to say that the game is rigged.
I thought we were talking about total number of hikes, not total base points. I think when they do cut net 1, I think you do 50.
I wasn't going off of quarter points.
I was just talking about the number of times instances.
I was thinking 25 is how they started off just to give the markets
that we're playing ball and then the 50 might come if we actually get a
deterioration I got a hop guys so nice talking to you see you tomorrow like we
appreciate you I would say for that question the way we were framing like a
cut like one rate cut each time is 25 basis points i know that's not i could have
asked the question in a better way but that's kind of how this is being yeah i think and then
they cut they cut 50 last september yeah yeah i mean this is just this is just standard language
that's how it's phrased every 25 basis points points as phrases a cut that's just standard
if they do 50 in a meeting that is that counts two cuts. That's just the way it is referred to in financial media
and has been for a long, long time.
I don't know why it's that way, but it is.
Yes, sometimes we can get two 25 basis points cuts in the same meeting,
but it's still portrayed as two cuts, just for clarity purposes,
because I know there was some debate about that.
Toc, Toc, you have any thoughts on the conversation we're having so far?
I guess this is a non-Ramp Monday because it's a pretty...
Yeah, pretty slow Monday.
I mean, some pullbacks and some stuff.
You know, for me, I'm a pretty calm guy on pullback days.
I mean, I'm confident in the stuff I own.
And I'm also more micro-focused.
So, you know,
on days like today, I think that daily charts can be noisy on days like today. So I'd like to look
the weekly charts and just make sure the setup's intact. There aren't any technical breakdowns.
There isn't any high volume selling. And if I don't see any of that stuff, then I don't worry
about it. I just stick with my positions. And when I do start seeing that stuff is when I start
cutting stuff. And, you know, for that stuff is when I start cutting stuff.
And, you know, for people that are in our community that follow my portfolio updates,
I tend not to do much on red days unless there's something that's screaming dip buy at me,
which is rare because I'm not really much of a scale in guys.
I know some newer traders like to practice that.
And when you're learning, you should.
But when I know I want to get in something, I usually know.
So I'm usually in full size within the first week of considering the position.
I usually don't need much longer than that to build a position.
So, yeah, it depends.
Sometimes there is stuff that I don't know enough size in that I'll pick up on red days, but it tends to be rare.
Obviously, there's some relative strength today in the nuclear stocks
which is good to see that's one of the largest positions in my portfolio the name that I rock
with is centrist energy I think technically speaking and that was about five percent today
but I think technically speaking centrist energy has been the clear leader in the nuclear stocks
you look at the entire group you look at the volatility on the red days
you look at the moves up on the green days centrist has been the best performer um i've
obviously talked about that stock a lot over several the last several months on the space
i've actually been talking about it since 2021 but um i think it's it's getting the bid that it has
and having hasn't having the strength that it has,
relative strength versus the rest of the nuclear names for a reason.
Obviously, a lot of the other price action leaders are pre-revenue names,
as we've talked about, Oclo, SMR, NNE.
I think those are great trading vehicles to trade the theme
because there's a lot of attention on them and a lot of volume,
and they're very liquid, and they tend to trade pretty well
within technical parameters and well-defined levels of risk so
for traders they're great and and i trade them when they present themselves but i think for a
longer duration exposure in the theme you probably want a revenue producer you want some a company
that's making money a company that has you know asset has asset leverage and can benefit from the theme quickly
and rapidly and see earnings growth as a result of it.
So names like Centris, which I own currently, names like BWXT, which I've owned in the past,
names like Mirion Technologies, which I've also owned in the past.
In my view, if you want long duration, mid-cap exposure to the nuclear theme, you buy those
names because they make money and they have genuine prospects for near
term earnings growth as a result of this whole nuclear renaissance thing so nice
season strength in those names today my aerospace and defense basket also
squeeze the day out green those names have tended to perform well all year
this year on red days in the broader market. I don't know why particularly,
but they just have. They've been great relative strength candidates, Kratos, Mercury, Huntington,
Ingalls, which are my three defense positions, all green today, slightly green, not big green,
but still green in a day, where a lot of other names were pulling back. So some good areas of
relative strength in my portfolio, like I said, mainly the nuclear and defense name, some pullbacks for the Bitcoin mining names today. The Coors deal was announced
this morning. And the market not only was expecting a higher price per share, a lot of the
firms on the street were expecting 25 to 35 a share, but it's also an all stock deal. And the
market today, I think, put in a vote that they don't think CoreWeave is going to be trading
at today's equity prices by the end of the year, because if they did think that,
then cores would have gone straight to 20 today instead of down 15%. And so I think the reason
that happened is pretty simple, which is that it's an all-stock
transaction and that CoreWeave may not have that stock price by the end of the year. In fact,
DA Davidson came out close to the end of the session and said they've had an underweight
rating on Core's, by the way, the whole time since IPO, even though it's squeezed in their faces,
they've had a 36 price target the whole time. Stock like 160 155 whatever it is so they've been wrong obviously on the price but
they reiterate their underperforming again today into the clothes right into the clothes it was
like I don't know for maybe an hour before the clothes two hours before the clothes but sorry
before the open I don't know I'm saying before the close to one or two hours before the open but um
They put out a note saying hey, we think that this is financial engineering
You know, we think core weave knows that their stock price is too high and they're attempting to acquire assets using their stock
Before it crashes essentially. That's what DA Davidson was saying. And so the market
agreed with them today based on the reaction of those
names, but daily charts still not breaking down on a lot of those. So, you know, I'm still in
Cypher, still in Riot. And I think, you know, Iron today as well, great relative strength,
went right back to green after dipping big off the open. So I think there's still a bit under
those names. I think even if you don't think CoreWeave's stock is going to be trading where it is today i think the fact that
it implies a 9 billion valuation for uh cores today is still pretty significant because that's
double what the price was prior to that wall street journal coming out right when that wall
street journal story came out the stock was like 11 bucks so implying a 20 40 takeout price does
imply a 9 billion valuation currently and all things being
equal even if you don't think corby's gonna be trading where it is i do think that tide lifts
the valuations of those boats so that's why i didn't get scared out of those names today
and a lot of people were like panicking because they were red but the sim i don't own any cores
so for me it wasn't an issue um but i own some of the sympathies and I didn't see a reason to get out of those today based on those daily candles.
Now, it could lead to more selling in those names throughout the week if sentiment gets really bad.
And then some of those daily setups might start to break down.
And in that case, I would get out of some of those names.
But it hasn't happened yet.
So, you know, you have to get used to red days.
I say this all the time.
Like, you can't be an effective swing trader or an effective investor.
A lot of times people think, oh, if you're talking about Trump.
By the way, getting a lot of these Trump true social posts on these country numbers.
For anyone curious, for anyone who's excited about it just went away, I think Bosnia was 30%.
Serbia, he's literally going country by country right now.
Serbia is 35
uh bangladesh is 32 um there was another one tunisia uh i did look 1.14 million dollars of
products a lot of like animal oils and like olive oil stuff is what they import but uh 25 percent
tariff cambodia is the latest one here at 36. Yeah a lot of those posts uh a lot of
letters going sent out you know postage from the U.S. government has at least three dollars four
dollars been spent today. Sorry I stopped talking for cutting you off. I don't know there's just
you just going going at him right now. Yeah I'm seeing her and I sending all these letters.
And it's funny because we've talked in the spaces like, listen, they're not going to do this.
They're just going to put a blanket thing and they're going to focus.
The market cares about three, four or five countries, maybe 10.
And then what else?
Why are we talking about Tunisia with 30% tariff?
I mean, Europe, the reason Europe and China are the only things that matter is because Europe, China, and the United States make up, like, what?
I don't know the number.
75% of the world's GDP.
Something like that.
So, yeah.
I mean, the other countries don't matter.
I don't mean that in, like, an insulting way.
If you're in the audience and you're, like, from Cambodia or these other places, like they're sure they're beautiful countries.
I'm not saying anything about the culture or anything,
but economically speaking,
just being objective,
like the only economies that matter are China and Europe to the United States,
like net net,
all things considered.
That's,
I mean,
Europe's collective GDP is pretty big.
If you combine all the European countries, there's no individual country that can really hold a candle to the United States.
But collectively, they are a powerful economic entity, as is China, obviously, as is India as well but I think the difference with India is is that the
Indian export controls like for those are familiar with the Indian economy
they have had extremely stringent controls on most production level goods
in terms of cars like anything that anything that needs to be like
manufactured at scale through you through a complex supply chain.
India has protected pretty much all of those industries for a long time.
And so whether or not a trade deal gets done with India, my point is that it's not disruptive
to markets because it's not changing anything about the status quo.
It's not like the US is selling millions of cars into India, right?
So anything that happens with India is just a cherry on top. But when it comes to the
China and the EU, we have had a very intimate trade relationship with both of those entities
for a long time. And so that is disruptive to markets. And so, you know, the EU said they're not getting a letter today, which is good.
As long as nothing happens on the China end, like, if you want to know a catalyst that could really derail the markets, that's it.
Which is that we don't come to a deal with the EU and then China, you know, takes advantage of that and, you know, reneges on some of the agreements they made with us initially or
starts to get more strict and says, you know what, to get the rare earths, actually, you're
going to have to drop your chip tariffs or something like that.
I mean, I'm speculating, but that is a risk to the markets.
And that is a case where I would become less bullish on the markets.
That hasn't happened yet.
Could happen next week, could happen this week.
But that to me is the biggest risk to this stock market,
is the biggest risk to the economy,
is the biggest risk to the whole party we're having right now.
But in terms of technical structure, I mean, like I said,
I flipped through daily charts, flipped through weekly charts.
Today on all my individual stocks, everything looks great.
So I don't have no reason to worry about any of my individual hold. Everything looks great. So I have no
reason to worry about any of my individual holdings. I did the same thing with the indexes,
took a peep at SPY. We needed a pullback. We're getting extended off the 9 EMA. Even after today's
pullback, we didn't even touch the 9 EMA. So, you know, markets get extended. They need the
moving averages to catch up. That's absolutely normal action. Now, if the tariff stuff starts picking up heat again,
the China and EU situation becomes uncertain, and we really do start breaking down on the indexes,
in other words, going from breaking down under the 9 EMA to breaking down to the 21 EMA to
breaking down to the 50 MA. If we start seeing action like that with the tariff narrative
picking back up, yeah, you get get defensive again we're not there yet though
you know these letters going out to cambodia and stuff yeah maybe you get another red day tomorrow minus 0.2 minus 0.3 percent you know some stocks down whatever that kind of action doesn't bug me
what bugs me is when you get minus 1.5 minus two percent days in the indexes and individual stocks
are down minus 15 20 daily charts breaking down weekly charts losing key areas of support. That's when you get cautious in the market.
And it's very obvious when it happens. It's not like, you know, you need to be guessing like,
oh, like is something coming? Market kind of tells you when something's coming.
You know, you look at that deep seek sell off. Yeah, I know it had nothing to do with tariffs.
But you look at deep seek sell off in late February. Go look at what was happening to
the weekly charts
of a lot of those market-leading names following that sell-off.
The answer is they were breaking down.
And what happened after that breakdown?
They met another month, month and a half of selling
after those breakdowns happened, right?
And what does that mean?
Well, I mean, it doesn't mean that that's always going to happen
when you see that action. But it does mean, it doesn't mean that that's always going to happen when you see that action.
But it does mean, hey, if a new narrative problem is coming up in the markets and you have, in addition to that, a technical breakdown in the markets, that's caution.
It's the sort of it's the same sort of confluence you look at to the upside.
Right. Like when you like upside right like when you like the
market when you like the narrative of the market you like everything that's going on you like some
individual names you get long on those individual names you're like wow the chart's great the
catalyst is great the theme's great that's confluence on the long side that makes you
really want to buy a stock right you're like wow everything is checking the boxes sometimes
everything checks the boxes to the downside. And we're not there
yet. Not even close. We haven't even seen a 9 EMA breakdown yet. So you're not even close.
But be able to recognize that when it happens and be able to recognize if there's a good causation
behind it. Because sometimes it's for dumb reasons, right? Sometimes you see breakdowns
for dumb reasons. And your intelligence and ability to differentiate market catalysts can
help you spot those things and be like, look, stocks down 10%, but this isn't really bad news.
I'm going to buy the dip, right? You see that all the time from experienced investors and traders,
and it works out for them often because they can recognize, you know, oh, this, the market
shouldn't be selling for this reason. But if you have something that does seem like a good reason to be selling and it's accompanied by a technical breakdown
that's where you should start being cautious so that's just something to
watch out for in the next few weeks and months if it does happen you know that
will probably open us up for another pullback I don't lean as much on the
seasonality tune you know Mike and Scott we're talking about the start of the
space I don't lean on the idea of like hey markets usually pull back in the next
few weeks so we should be expecting a pullback that I don't know it's just not
really productive to me I think like for all the years I've traded I don't think
historical data has done me too much good but again that's also because I
don't trade the indexes right and I don't most the vast majority of my allocations are in individual stocks.
And so, you know, I don't really get caught up with the idea of seasonality, because if you have an individual stock that's in the right sector with the right theme, with the right catalyst, the seasonality doesn't really matter.
It can perform without the indexes.
So not to mention a lot of the mid cap names I own aren't even in the indexes so that's another
advantage as well but yeah I let the market one to tell me when to panic long story short you know
of all the 20 minutes of rand I just gave that's basically what I'm saying I let the market and
the technical structure tell me when to panic and we're just not there yet you're gonna get pullback
days you're gonna have red days markets don't go up every day. You're going to have days where you have
stocks that you like, that you think are on the right theme that are red for one reason or another.
And, you know, that's where conviction comes in handy. That's where the experience and ability
to read a basic price action, read a basic chart, that comes in handy.
You know, your ability to have experienced market catalysts before and seen what they do to the market, seen what they do,
being able to sit through a pullback, that comes in handy, right?
That's a skill, really.
And, you know, a lot of people panic.
They see stock down right away and they panic out of it,
and then by the end of the day, it's back to green.
I mean, I'm sure a lot of you new traders in the audience have done that a million times.
You know, you own something, something happens in the morning of the next day,
it sucks down a lot in pre-market, goes down more off the open, you panic out of it at the lows,
and then four hours later, it's green. Happens to a lot of new traders. You know,
I've even had it happen to me before. Even though I have plenty of traders. I've even had it happen to me before.
Even though I have plenty of experience, I've even had it happen to me where something crosses my line of risk and looks really bad and the selling is high volume.
And I'm like, you know what?
I'm just going to get out here.
And then lo and behold, something else comes out during the day.
Stock rebounds.
And I'm like, wow, I'm an idiot.
But that's going to happen to you.
You're not going to trade everything perfectly or get in and out of everything perfectly. There's's gonna be stocks you sell that you're like, oh, I wish I didn't sell it
There's gonna be stocks you buy that you're like, oh, I wish I didn't buy it and so on and so forth
But just part of the game you get better at it over time. That's Leo lapping water loudly in the background, but
Yeah, that's pretty much it pretty slow day for me like I said, so
If there's something specific you guys want to chat about, let's do it.
But there wasn't too much going on today.
Yeah, I was in a similar boat.
I knew once this week was going to be centered around trade talks and waiting for two social posts.
I knew exactly what type of week this was going to be for the market.
So we're also a week or two from earnings season.
I've
heard once or twice,
I know these companies are in blackout windows,
so it feels like even just the
PRs we've gotten from these companies
have been a little bit less over the last couple weeks.
Maybe it's just July 4th.
This is kind of what you'd expect here.
I go back to the point I said earlier.
Maybe next year, if someone wants to pull this up and says,
Evan, take a two-week break, come on into July 4th,
get a day and a half off, then come here the week after,
nothing's going to happen.
It'll be the prime time for it.
I do wonder what else we're looking forward to this week.
When I was looking at my Catalyst watch for tomorrow, it is Prime Day, Amazon Prime Day.
I saw some Adobe estimates saying that this, they were kind of putting in that Adobe forecast,
a record $23.8 billion in online spending will be had through July 8th to 11th.
Now, this doesn't tell you, it tells you it's up 28.4% year over year,
but it doesn't tell you what the baseline level would be.
I guess you could kind of back into that.
But they were kind of framing it as, hey, this is two Black Fridays,
which is a pretty significant number.
So Amazon Prime, I know I was kind of talking.
Did you see the Reddit thread on it?
I did not.
What was it?
It was like this morning, and it was like this guy, and he's like,
I work at Amazon, guys, full disclosure.
They're going to dump all the pre-tariff China inventory on you guys on private.
Listen, it's better than the argument of them raising the prices the day before,
or a couple days before, and then discounting.
At least I'm getting some discounted prices.
I mean, Amazon's definitely... One thing thing amazon is definitely sitting on a lot of
chinese inventory right now and they're probably logistically working on
ways to either replace those products in the chain if the china tariffs are going to be higher than
expected or offload them or i don't know But there's so many third-party sellers that use Chinese suppliers on Amazon,
like an insane amount.
So I don't know how Amazon's going to tackle that,
but that is going to be an issue for Amazon in the back half of the year, I think.
Maybe they'll use Prime Day to offload some of it,
but I don't know how much they can really get off.
Prime Day purchases tend to be higher ticket.
So that's something to consider.
You won't have maybe as easy of a time offloading like cheap Chinese
products on prime day,
but who knows?
Who knows?
But yeah,
that's,
I guess the catalyst for this week.
We don't have any economic data this week,
right?
I don't think we have anything.
There was really not much interesting.
I wonder if Ali,
if there's anything you're watching in that direction.
I see FOMC minutes.
Does that matter when every single fed president comes out and tells us what they think all the time right exactly yeah i'm not
sure if that's the number one thing here but like you guys were just saying with the lack of economic
data perhaps that's something that has a bit more focus on but yeah i really think this week is just any more from the trade front. What we
hear from Trump, the start, I guess, the trickle in of earnings, what companies could be saying.
But I think you're right. I think there's not a lot of volume right now. People are
on vacation. But next week, I believe next week is CPI and all this other crazy economic
data.
And that's when earnings will really start to get into high gear.
So sort of the calm before the storm, I would say.
Yeah.
And next week, we have CPI on Tuesday.
We have PPI on Wednesday.
Thursday, we have retail sales.
I'm looking at the earnings calendar for next week.
Shout out earnings sub.
I actually get to use this a little more again.
These are just the confirmed dates.
JP Morgan, BlackRock, C rock city a couple banks tuesday morning wednesday asml johnson johnson
it's weird those banks are starting on tuesday uh asml johnson johnson a couple more banks goldman
bank of america t-mobile on wednesday then we get netflix thursday as well pepsi i know a lot of
people have been uh on these trading spaces some people have been talking about pepsi and coca-cola
a little bit,
which is interesting.
Then we get Amex on Friday.
So next week, earnings season, CPI, PPI, retail sales.
Sam, I see your hand up.
Ali, I don't know if any of those earnings are specifically interesting for you.
I mean, maybe not the ones that are later on next week,
but likely the ones in the following week after that.
But probably starting next week, I think you the uh blackout period for the fed so we're definitely getting a lot of
uh well i wouldn't really say market movers over there because lately it's been more of a tamper
effect with the uh with the things that some of the fed chairs were saying or some of the fed
presidents were saying but um i think wednesday or thursday we're supposed to be getting another one of the Atlantic Fed
GDP Now forecasts, which
the market is kind of
increasing their consensus
as far as what that GDP would actually be.
I think it's probably going to be above 3%,
but I'm being a little bit optimistic
there. However, we did
see some... You guys already
mentioned earlier, we did see the
job... That was the startup of a 2023 Honda Accord.
I'm saying a new car, but like a Honda or Toyota.
How far off am I?
Sorry?
You started your car during that, so I heard that.
I was trying to go off of the engine.
Oh, no, no, no.
I'm staying in the parking lot because I had to have a car.
Gotcha.
But no, man, I got a Tesla.
You don't hear any engine turnover when that happens.
Boom.
Sorry for the disrespect.
No, it's okay.
I should have known it was the person next to you.
What are we talking about?
You guys here?
Sam's in the valley.
Yeah, actually, if there's anyone who's probably disrespecting Tesla, definitely not me.
I think there's a lot of that going on on Twitter.
But I mean, if anything,
once these Fed presidents start
getting into a blackout period, the earnings start
coming out, we just have that kind of consolidation
effect, especially if it's going to be happening this week.
Probably not going to be a lot of movement this week.
Ironically, we would have expected that last week
during a short week. But yeah, the
lack of economic events happening this week and so on.
Tariffs, which everyone knows, is probably not going to be August 1st.
It's probably going to push back a little bit further than that.
I mean, we'll see.
But earnings are definitely going to be what's interesting and probably what the market's going to be setting up for.
Nellie, you got any thoughts on that? You yeah you think august 1st is the day you think you think
is this time different is this an actual deadline i'm kidding but i don't know i don't know i don't
think you can say that definitively but it's funny because august 1st is actually my birthday so here
we go terrors for my birthday uh but also uh kevin gordon from Charles Schwab, he pointed out on a post that
August 1st is also when we'll get the July jobs report. So there'll be a lot of news around that
date. And I think the next few weeks, starting next week, it's just going to be a flurry of,
you know, news when it comes to earnings, when it comes to the Fed decision, the tariff deadline,
jobs data. I mean, I just think there's going to be a lot to chew on over the next few weeks.
What I don't get is some of the choice of what countries got these letters. So we had Japan,
South Korea. Okay, cool. That makes sense. The first two in the morning. And now we're at Malaysia,
Tunisia, Kazakhstan, Bosnia, and Herzegovina,
South Africa, Indonesia. Again, that one makes a little more sense. I don't know numbers,
but it feels big. Cambodia. I was worried about that one. Myanmar and Laos. Not surprised those
ones are near the top. Yeah, it's interesting. And I think that's another point too, is even if
these smaller trading partners have higher tariff rates, how much does it actually impact the economy versus some of these bigger trading partners?
So that's another thing that I think we'll want to get a little bit more clarity on.
It feels like these letters are for countries that maybe aren't negotiating in the way that Trump wants or he's using them as pawns in a bigger.
But I don't get the Japan one
it just makes sense because we we have heard them talk about Japan I know they've maybe played a
little harder he's been frustrated he's been frustrated with Japan and we did see you know
slightly higher you know one percent 25 percent versus the prior 24 percent so pretty much
identical I would say to what we heard from April. But, you know, again, Trump has been very vocal about Japan
and how he's been frustrated with them.
So, yeah, I mean, I wish I could be inside his brain
and know what the thought process was there.
Are you sure you want to be inside that brain?
That's true, too.
A lot going on, a lot happening.
I'll tell him to say some nice things about Apple. I know we're coming up here. We tend to
have a hard stop at the top of the hour. Allie, anything else you want to throw in on this basis?
Any interesting watch over the week? Yeah, I think we talked about a lot of good stuff. Again,
I would just go back to earnings and just really concentrate on earnings. Look at some of those
mega cap tech stocks, but at some of those mega cap tech
stocks, but also some of those consumer names too. I mean, you mentioned Netflix next week.
That's a company I watch very closely. Any commentary on that front on tariffs, what people
are spending, you talked about Prime Day coming up. I think that's going to be a really good gauge
on the state of the consumer because really this rally relies on consumers continuing to spend. So
if we see any cracks or further cracks, I should say, on that front,
I think that's when you can start to maybe get a little bit worried that this rally is losing some steam.
And I think you're going to get that from the earnings calls and a lot of this commentary.
So I would say focus on that, see how that trickles through into the underlying data,
and then sets us up for later this summer where I think jackson hole is going to be a big event to watch we appreciate you ali as always if you guys are enjoying these spaces make sure
you're following all the speakers up here uh we appreciate ali and everyone else who has joined
in on this one uh and if you guys enjoy these live free conversations the hosts of the spaces
we're live every single monday through Thursday, three to 5 p.m.
Eastern,
at least.
Doc Talk,
we didn't get the,
oh yeah,
we kind of did get a little 20,
20 minute rant in there,
something like that.
But yeah,
any final words you want to leave us on what you're watching for this week
tomorrow?
Anything famous last word on this Monday?
it should be a pretty calm week.
I think it's because of the lack of catalyst,
obviously barring anything new from Trump's side on the tariff stuff.
But we did get another month-ish of runway, I should say, August 1st, a couple weeks, more like it.
But, yeah, we'll see what happens.
You know, everything looks fine in the market so far.
Maybe we get another pullback day tomorrow with all these Trump tweets about tariffs.
But a lot of charts still look great out there.
So I think there's opportunity still.
All right, Sam.
What you say is going to end this space is I'm not going to come in after.
I'm just going to close it out.
We appreciate everyone.
Follow the speakers.
Sam, end this out.
Sam's been posting a lot of great tweets.
Not that he wasn't before, but they've been doing good stuff recently. I appreciate the speakers. Sam's been posting a lot of great tweets. Not that he wasn't before, but they've been doing good stuff recently.
I appreciate the commenting.
Tease the stock picks
we're going to do here in a little bit.
Well, I mean,
the ticker on X starts with a dollar sign
and ends with a letter.
There you go. Perfect.
All right.
That was a rough outro there, Sam.
Good tweets, though.
Follow the speakers.
Partially M's fault.
He did sabotage you a little there.
Space open up from that Wolf account.
Appreciate you, Ali. Appreciate you, Sam.
Stock talk and everyone else who's up here.
M for hosting the spaces.
Follow the speakers. We'll be back tomorrow.
Same time, same place. 5 p.m. Eastern.
Have a great one, team. Thank appreciate you bye thanks everyone we'll see you on stock picks for the
week i'm gonna open it up in 30 seconds we're also doing second half picks for the year so uh
tune in for that and call it 22 seconds from now. Thank you.
