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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: July 1, 2025 Duration: 2:06:57Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. All right, all right.
What is up, everybody?
Evan, stock market news behind the Stocks on Spaces account again today.
We are moving lower a little here.
This first start to power hour here.
I'm seeing a headline from Trump saying,
I doubt we will have a deal with Japan by the July 9th deadline,
saying he's not thinking about extending it.
The market is moving lower right now off of this headline.
I want to get this post out.
Let's get Mr. Options, Mike, and some others up
here. What is up, everybody? Another day of Stocks on Spaces. We got plenty to talk about here,
including live Trump comments. So sending the market lower.
What's up, Mike? How you doing?
What's up, Mike? How you doing?
Good, Evan. Long time no see.
Long time no see. Well, yeah, you know, we actually, I haven't seen you, but long time no talk.
Markets are moving lower now off this headline here from Trump. I think it's about not getting a trade deal with Japan in that time and what that necessarily means.
time and what that necessarily means.
And it's even one of the ones that were necessarily close. Now I got that headline out. Good.
Now I got that headline out.
Good.
Yeah, market's moving lower here.
As I'm looking at some of the other stuff, Apple still up 1%, holding up a little better
than some of the other names.
Amazon's still green.
Did Jeff Bezos sell?
I don't fully understand that filing.
I'm curious to see a little bit more information.
But if he did sell on that Friday, like it said in the filing, then we should really hear
it today after the close.
So I'm watching out for that. Part of me did want to take an Amazon call on a small chance that it
was, but I don't think it's going to happen. So I'm not going to do that. NVIDIA is down about
3%, Meta down 3%, Tesla down 5%. A lot of movement going on in the Mag 7, a couple other stuff going
there. Obviously, a lot of the Mag 7 is moving that much. A bunch of other names are too, and
some names are working. PayPal is up 1.4%. I'm seeing a Coca-Cola up 1.5%. Airbnb up too. SCHD up 2%. Intel,
a couple other names are working. So text down, seems like a lot of other stuff is moving,
is having decent days. Although this last headline is shaking us around a little bit.
Let's get all our friends up here mike you want to kick
into what you're watching today if there's any any kind of stuff top of mind and trades taken
yeah um what have i been doing today uh i've been trading apple i came in long apple overnight with
options took profits cooked them off bought them back a little bit a little less of them i was very
heavy traded with stock and just sitting in a couple of them now uh it's really been a rotation day and uh you know this market is effing relentless
like we capped down today on the little the you know trump musk feud part two and the market came
roaring back and the iwm small caps had a big day although they're coming off now you saw the banks
just made a new all-time high you saw energy
spike you saw pharma and biotech having strong days names like coke it was a rotation day and
while that was going on under the covers netflix and meta and nvidia and amd and palantir are all
getting hit hard they're seeing a little rotation now is this is this a trend change you know where
we're going to be rotating out back to other names it might be or it could be a one-day thing i find it hard
to believe that they won't be coming back for tech sometime in the non-distant future but
you got a little rotation day here going on and you know the market is now sensitive uh trump has
been extremely active today talking he's been he's been going on since early this morning. He's just talking again,
not thinking about extending the July 9th trade deadline. I think I'm going to hit with 35% tariffs on Japan. They're not going to be any close. And this is him just trying
to force things through, right? I mean, this is how he is. He just sits there and he tries
to, you know, he tries to get forced people to do what he wants by publicly
speaking out, or countries in this case.
And we'll see what kind of effect
this has. There's not a lot of time left.
We're down to basically seven days here.
We still don't have anything signed.
It'll be interesting next week.
Again, day and a half left
after today, so it'll be a short
week for the markets. I'm sure we'll enjoy the quiet time.
Yeah, I think that's the backdrop of a lot of this is that a lot of people are vacation right now probably not their monitors imagine
volumes a little low today it's actually been higher than I thought it would have
been volumes been much better but yes it's usually a very big vacation week. All right.
Top five vacation spots to go to right now.
I felt like the next common thing to say.
Let's go over to Brett.
Brett, how are you doing today, sir?
I feel like normally we go to you like last, but this time, second.
How are you doing today, sir?
I never join on time, so it kind of sets me up to be in the back half of the rotation.
But that's fine.
I like hearing kind of everyone's thoughts and opinions on what's going on
and kind of how they're seeing things.
So it works out.
What are you watching in this market?
Any parts of it standing out to you?
Yeah.
I think taking sort of a bigger picture view, so NASDAQ and S&P, obviously NASDAQ is a little
rougher today, but it's hard to take one day of red out of the last six days in a row that
have been pretty much straight up.
So I think this is coming from someone who's been a net seller over the past call it week, I guess, into that strength.
But I mean, I think the market looks incredibly strong at this point.
And it's hard to I don't know, it's hard for me to not feel that way.
Obviously, there are, you know, risks and concerns to have.
But in terms of this flat out price action, I mean, this is it's what an active sequence this has been to
the upside really you can go all the way back to uh early may mid may when we had that it was like
a huge gap up on like mid may monday i think it was it was like i think we climbed like four percent
in one day and since then has just been off to the races um support coming in in every little area
you needed to whether it was, you know, like something like
the 10 day, I think guided us for like a month. Then we got our first test of the 21 day that was
last Monday when we opened down on the Middle East headlines and we closed green and it's been
like a relentless run to the upside. And, you know, for me, I have used that as an opportunity to sort of take some cash off the table and really just kind of raise some equity and kind of looking for different opportunities and sort of getting ready for, you know, just getting using it as an opportunity, I guess, because I thought, you know, the end of Q2 or excuse me, the end of Q1.
So like late March, early April was an opportunity to buy. A lot of valuations there
were really attractive, especially considering the earnings picture hasn't changed a lot,
especially for some of these names. So now that we've run up in many of these names,
30, 40%, if not much more than that. And so from that perspective, the valuation
proposition is a lot different.
So I don't know.
I just think it's been a good opportunity
if you've been long from really at any point
in the second half of March or the first half of April.
It's an opportunity to trim.
It's not getting outright short.
It's not even, for me, at least personally,
it's not even getting out of the names that I like with the exception of, you know, if they were like a weekly swing or something
where it's more of a trade and a short term idea, like an AMD, for instance, you know, that that ran
more than I thought it would. And I took the opportunity to exit. But when you look at something
like, if you're looking at some of these other names, it's more of an investment, then, you know,
it's an opportunity, I think,
to kind of reduce a little bit.
But other than that, I mean,
I think the overall picture,
the backdrop looks pretty strong.
We'll go to earnings season in a couple of weeks.
Maybe that lets us melt up into it.
But we'll see where things stand
when we get to about mid-August,
when we have most of the mega caps reported,
You know, most of the mega caps reported the banks are in, credit card companies are in.
the banks are in,
credit card companies are in.
So I look forward to that.
Yeah, it really isn't that far away from earnings season starting to pick up.
We get the names, not next week, week after.
We start to hit like the banks and then big tech starts to come in a couple weeks after that.
I appreciate you, Brett.
Let's keep it going around here at the start and then we'll come back in on a couple more of these topics.
Godfather, how are you doing?
Yeah, good.
Look, if you've been anything other than fully invested, anything other than being fully invested in this market, you've basically underperformed.
This melt-up continues.
continues. We've had the fastest recovery in history. It's a widely heated rally, I think,
We've had the fastest recovery in history.
you know, by the institutions that are caught off guard, you know, and I think institutional
positioning is still at something like the 20th percentile. Meanwhile, retail is laughing all the
way to the bank as, you know, they've outperformed as evidenced by the record high margin levels that
keep trucking. So look, now we've got the widest
spread in relative performance between cyclicals and defensives that we've seen in two years.
And, you know, the naysayers will say, well, look, you know, breadth still sucks. You got the 10
largest S&P companies representing 38% of the market cap and 30% of the earnings. And, you know,
the median stock is still 13% from its all time highs. And, you know, the median stock is still 13% from its all-time highs. And,
you know, we need this to widen out to go higher. And, you know, like, I'm challenging my own
thinking on that. It's starting to feel, that argument is starting to feel more and more like
the, you know, VIX is too low argument that, you know, continues to persist and, you know,
structurally seems to have changed. So, look, you know, the AI bulls are clearly back in the driver's seat.
AI data center and the second river plays are still the biggest theme in this market.
You're continuing to see, you know, that widen out beyond, you know, the initial leaders of the
NVIDIAs and the Broadcoms and the TSMs of the world. And, you know, just look at any of these
charts. You've heard me say it for weeks here. The WDCs and the KLACs and the DMs of the world. And, you know, just look at any of these charts. You've heard me say it for weeks here.
The WDCs and the KLACs and the Dells, the Oracles, the Marvels,
even AMD starting to participate again.
So, you know, I think in terms of breadth, you know,
that's enough to take this market higher again.
And, you know, I think Tom Lee's right.
I wouldn't be surprised to see 6,600 or more on the S&P this year. You know, it all comes down to earnings, right? And,
you know, frankly, I was looking for confirmation of a stat that I heard from Warren Pies on CNBC
saying that, you know, forward earnings have accelerated to now all-time highs. And I got it
in a Goldman research piece. And yeah, their chart's showing exactly the same thing.
This upcoming earnings in the second quarter right now are anticipated to be the trough,
which is 4% earnings growth. But they expected 7% in Q Q1 and we came in at 12. They expected 9% in Q4 of 24 and we came in at 15.
So, you know, we've consistently, you know, beat and surprised to the upside on earnings.
And if you look at their graph beyond the second quarter, which is supposedly the trough, you do see exactly what Warren Pies was talking about, this forward earnings acceleration.
exactly what Warren Pies was talking about, this forward earnings acceleration. And to the extent
that we beat those at the cadence that we have consistently, you're talking deep double-digit
numbers. And so without multiple expansion, that portends double-digit returns to the indices.
So look, I don't know how some of these firms are talking about seven rate cuts next year.
And I think Goldman, even this morning, raised their rate cut assumption to three quarter points this year.
And we saw this immediately.
Pull up a chart of DPST, which is the 3X regional bank.
Pull up the nail chart, NAIL, the 3X home builders.
These charts were just on fire this morning coming out of the gate, you know, because I guess there were some comments about Powell saying he's not necessarily ruling out July.
And then Goldman saying three quarter point cuts. I've been in the one and done, you know, since the beginning of the year.
three-quarter point cuts. I've been in the one and done, you know, since the beginning of the year,
but look, I'm not fighting the tape here. You know, I've been waiting for some rotation.
And, you know, as Mike said on the outset, I'm not sure if it's durable yet, but, you know,
I am participating in those two things I just mentioned because, you know, I do see that in
the second half of the year, especially for the financials. Things that will steepen the yield
curve, clearly rate cuts will do that. The other things that we know are coming, and Besant's been
saying for a while that we're going to get some relaxing of the supplementary leverage ratio.
It's obviously good for the banks, especially the regionals, and that's in turn good for small caps.
So yeah, I'm big on financials starting to perform alongside tech to take this market to new highs.
So, you know, all of that sounds really euphoric.
And, you know, you have to check yourself when, you know, when you're feeling that way.
And I do think the market is feeling a bit euphoric here, right?
Because, look, you know, everything looking forward seems to be, you know, kind of known.
We know about the tariffs now. We know about the breadth that we talked about.
You know, the geopolitical side seems to be stabilizing a little bit.
Looks like we might actually get this big, big, big, beautiful bill through.
Like I said, the earnings expectations are, you know, looking like a pretty low bar that will be beat.
So, yeah, where do we go wrong here?
If you look at the stats, there's always a summer swoon, or at least there has been consistently for the last five years.
And it's typically lasted around 40 days.
And it typically takes about 10 percent off the S&P and takes about, you know, 13 to 15 percent off the queues.
And, you know, it depends when it starts.
Last year, we started to see it.
You can pull up the chart of the Qs and you'll see it from July 10 to August 10.
Typically, it's been a little bit closer to the end of the summer,
but we could certainly see that again.
But with what I just said in terms of backdrop,
What I just said in terms of backdrop, I think that'll provide a buying opportunity.
I think that'll provide a buying opportunity.
And, you know, even, you know, against this backdrop, which I think is really quite buoyant for smooth sailing ahead.
You know, there's individual themes that are, you know, even outperforming that, right?
Gen AIs, stable coins, autonomous vehicles, chatbots, agentic, space, defense, robots, nuclear, like you name it.
I think you can add fintech to that in the second half of the year and financials.
So, you know, there's just I don't see any reason transformation being led in the headlines, of course, you know, converting that to HPC,
you know, getting those power contracts that would otherwise be used for co-location or Bitcoin
mining, you know, in the hands of guys that want to use them for high margin AI compute. So,
you know, there are tier ones and there are tier twos in terms of both operators and assets.
We've been focusing in our community on who are those guys and where does the money come after I think this deal is imminent.
I think probably after the long weekend would be my guess.
We'll see a merger Monday.
You're going to see all the names like Iron and Cypher and Galaxy and Riot
and BTBT and Wolf and so on probably go to new highs. So yeah, I could go on and on, but I'll
leave it there.
Brett?
Yeah, I just, I kind of want to piggyback for a second on some of what Godfather just said,
because I think, you know, it's so important to understand what kind of what's going on under the surface.
And when you look at, you know, I think it's easy to sort of look at the favorite names,
especially like within tech or even look at the market as a whole and see that we've pushed back
to all-time highs. But, you know, it's not all things are weighted equally, like in the S&P,
for instance, like tech is like a third of the entire index and financials are like,
they're almost 15%. So you're talking like almost half the indexes are just these two sectors where,
you know, when you look back over the last year, financials are
the best performing sector. And you look back over the last quarter, like when you look in Q2,
tech was by far the best performer. And I think so many people, and when I say so many people,
I do mean myself included, you get used to this leadership role within tech where,
you know, especially when you look back to 2023, which now feels like a long time ago,
but it was kind of the onset of this bull market, you know, it was like the MAG-7 led the whole
thing and everything else sucked for all intents and purposes. It was the only group that was
dragging the entire index higher. And when you think of tech, like when I think of tech, it's
like I always kind of expect them to have that leadership role, but that has not been the case. Like they were the best performing group last
quarter, but the prior, if you measure Q3, Q4, and Q1, take that those three quarters and measure
their performance, tech was the worst performer. And it wasn't even close in terms of hanging around
the other ones. So I think if it's really, I don't want to say it's going to hinge on tech,
but I think tech plays such a big role in terms of the momentum it has now.
And as we look into the second half,
because if this group can continue to perform well,
obviously I'm not expecting multiple repeats of Q2 that it was,
that just did too well.
But if they can continue to push higher,
given the size that they hold,
they hold a third of the S and P.
If that's the case, if they can do well, that can really be a stabilizer, I think,
going into Q3 and into the second half of the year.
But if they do really well, if they do outperform by a wide margin,
that can just pour fuel on the fire.
And when you look at tech, you see that strength in semis.
You see the capital returning to, yes, the big capital, the big mega cap names, the NVIDIAs, the Broadcoms, the Taiwan Summys.
But even, as Godfather mentioned, the beaten down ones, the ASMLs, the AMDs, this group has been returning.
So I'd like to see, for me, I want to see if tech can continue to perform the way it has in Q2, keep up some of that momentum, see if it can push markets forward.
in Q2, keep up some of that momentum, see if it can push markets forward. And I agree with his
stance too, in the sense of if we do have something in that 5% to 10% range, I think it is an
opportunity for us in the second half. Wolfie, oh, Stock Talk, did you unmute?
Not hearing anything that way. Wolfie, how are you doing, did you unmute? Not hearing anything that way.
Wolfie, how are you doing today, sir?
Keep it moving.
Good, man.
How are you?
I'm doing well.
I'm doing well.
You know, this morning I was maybe doing a little bit better, but yeah, no, I'm still
doing well.
You a fan of that Jordan Clarkson signing?
Wait, did he sign with an X?
Yeah.
He did.
That's such a bad acquisition.
That's wild.
Why is that a bad acquisition?
Tell me more.
He has such bad chemistry for a team, dude.
He has just like a shoot first, no defense.
He's got such a bad attitude for a locker.
Yeah, but that's what they needed.
They needed a guy to come off the bench and just have no conscience.
Jalen Brunson, great leader.
He'll get them in shape, you know?
I did miss this one.
I saw some of the other ones, but
Nixon Six,
what's going on in the market today? MSGS?
I saw it was like...
That's the problem. It just doesn't move enough.
I love this play, though. Let's see. What did I do today? My guess would be up a little bit. I don't know. I don't problem it just doesn't move enough I love this play though let's see what did I do today
I don't know I don't think it's one of those things that you
it's not
you just kind of own it and then
wait for the next
franchise buy
I am in at
165.50
damn that's good you're doing good then
cause I bought
I literally bought this.
Like a year ago?
No, in 2020.
Okay, yeah. No, you're doing alright.
No, no. For me, it was like I went long Apple yesterday.
It was a banger.
And then another one was, I'd mentioned it.
I didn't really mention a strike or anything like that.
But we went long UNH ahead of today because today is their employee share purchase program.
And they can buy their shares at a discount. Management's been buying at a discount.
It's not surprising the stock broke out today of all days, up 4% on the day.
I think it could have some legs into earnings just because of, you know, people front running.
And then some of the positioning on it kind of bodes well for it.
You know, all time high today.
But again, the market still kind of gives you, or not you, it just gives people a little bit of everything.
So you got an all time high, but it lowest, lowest breadth breakout on the S&P,
I think in the last 30 years. So the 22 names are at an all-time high while the S&P is at an all-time
high, which is the lowest number of all-time highs when you have an all-time high. So outside of that,
So outside of that, you know, I got a short week.
I still try to find the names that are, you know, not the Mag 7 for the most part, except when, you know, I feel like they're going to rotate into one of these names every now and then.
But now some of these Mag 7 names across the board outside of Tesla still, They actually look good. It looked like Amazon went back and retested, held, and now it looks like it's going to
probably break out further to the upside now that the Bezos stuff's behind them.
Wait, wait, wait.
Did you look into the filing?
I didn't.
There was a little controversy around if it's actually behind them and stuff like that.
Twitter seems to think he has not sold yet.
We'll see.
Okay.
Well, I sold. So once I'm out, I'm out.
I don't want to like, it's like ex-girlfriends. I just, I'm out, you know?
And then, so, but outside of that, if you,
you guys were talking about it earlier, some of these,
some of the,
some of the action today was just around some of these beaten up sectors or
some of these kind of like
consumer driven names. So whether it's whether it's some of the oil trade, the home builders,
retail was doing really well today. And then some of the metals, miners, materials,
those kinds of names are doing really well. So I kind of feel like where we're at, people are possibly considering a rate cut.
I think it's like 68% chance that you get at least 25 basis points in September.
So, you know, I think the commentary that people were latched onto is the possibility that July is not off the table.
that people were latched onto is the possibility that July is not off the table.
But even if, even if they don't cut in July,
I think the read through is by September, we should get one.
So outside of, you know, outside of July,
I think like the main thing people will focus on is Jackson Hole.
But then by the time September rolls around,
I believe that the market's starting to believe that,
that there will be some sort of, you know, meaningful
cut, whether it's one and done or yet to be seen. But the possibility isn't that it's just a 25,
it's that there's more than 25 base point cut by then. So with that in mind, like I just, I would
like to pay attention to in the coming weeks, some of these, you know, whether it's home builders,
whether it's some of these material names, industri whether it's home builders, whether it's some
of these material names, industrials, like take a look at Caterpillar really performing well
in the last few weeks, you know, pressing, it's now within, you know, striking distance of an
all-time high, I think it's like 7% away, which is not close, close, but it's close enough
to monitor. And then, you know, again, I mentioned the home builders,
which, you know, you would think that in a situation
where, you know, the housing market's been absolutely abysmal,
they shouldn't perform.
But I think the read there is that people are starting to expect
the opportunity or the potential for, like, you know,
a meaningful cut, maybe some for like, you know, a meaningful cut,
maybe some sort of, you know, re-stimulating of that sector in one way, shape or form,
who knows what's going to come down the pike. And then the last thing that I'm paying attention to in the earnings front is if you do get these cuts and some of this like proposed
around the corner deregulation, banks should do fine.
And if banks and financials are doing fine, I think that overall, until the music stops,
then things will be viewed as okay, which a lot of times the sentiment drives things.
things. I saw that there was a post earlier that I saw about JP Morgan basically saying there's a
greater than 60% chance that we end the year significantly higher from here. I don't know
what to make of that, but I thought it was worth noting if people are now out there talking that way.
I still think that outside of price action, just if you want to talk macro real quick,
I really do still think that this market kind of gives you a little bit for everybody.
So the macro guys and the credit guys and those guys can still see their alarms.
The inflation guys can still see the alarms.
And then the guys that just point to the all-time high and the technicals can still point to the all-time high and technicals and say, hey, market, the price is fact, price is king, price is truth, whatever.
And so, you know, I just think it's important to keep in the back burner.
I think if Powell doesn't cut the way that Trump wants, I'm really curious to see how that one plays out.
I'm curious to see if he's going to try to undermine him in any way,
shape or form.
But, you know,
it's just something that you keep in mind and it's not something that you
like actually trade off of.
And then the last thing that I want to pay attention to, you know,
if, if gas prices and oil sit where they're at and they don't really move
meaningfully.
I think that there could be a catch up here in some of these transports, especially some of these trucking names and some of these shipping names.
I'm taking a look at FedEx, which had a really crappy quarter, but it didn't get sold off.
And that's pretty interesting to me.
It could be some sort of bottom form there,
something to trade against at least for sure.
And then I'm also looking at things like Packard and Cummins
and things of that nature.
I know these are all boring names.
And lastly, before you jump down my neck,
Honeywell still looks good, Evan.
Bang, bang.
No, I won't anymore.
But listen, it says old, boring names.
My mind goes one place.
I did not know Squid Game Season 3 was released.
Yeah, it's one of those people forgot all about it, huh?
Yeah, apparently it's doing well.
It's doing numbers.
I'm sorry.
I literally saw a headline while you were speaking that.
60 million views in the first three days.
I was like, wow, that came out?
Sorry.
Options Mike's got his hand up, though.
You guys could just go.
Well, you know, I didn't mention.
Nobody else did.
I can't believe Karol forgot this.
And they're just telling.
Tesla delivery numbers are around 9 o'clock tomorrow morning.
And nobody's talking about it.
I think, you know, we mentioned it yesterday.
Stockton and I mentioned it yesterday after the 2 o'clock hour.
I think people are just expecting them to be trash.
Well, I am expecting them bad,
but I expect it's going to drop and rally right back
because everybody's expecting it.
Well, so this is where it gets fun.
Are we all expecting it to do that?
So now exactly like that.
We're all now at a point where we're like, we expect the bad number.
We expect the gamma pull on the back of the bad number.
So is there going to be a situation where we expect the bad number,
get the pop and then just fades?
I don't know.
But I think it's, I think it's more interesting.
This like this tip for tap that Musk has now with Trump ratcheting back up, I think is more interesting than the numbers, because I don't know what's going to come with that.
I agree.
I think that's the big thing.
I don't think Musk is done, because I think now he's going to go and try to do the same thing against the House Republicans.
He's still trying to get this thing changed.
So I think this is going to go all weekend, my personal thought.
I mean, the Senate got it through by one vote.
One vote.
It was Vance had to come in and let the vote in.
And the House is said to be much tighter.
So interesting.
So interesting.
Yeah.
But I just find like, I just find, you know, it's just rhetoric till it's not.
But I just find some of the rhetoric around it from Trump.
Because, you know, earlier on, Trump didn't play that game.
He just kind of like sidestepped it, wish him well, so on and so forth.
But now it just seems like, OK, you want to go for tit for tat.
Let's go tip for tat
I agree
let's keep it moving get us through the start here shy how you doing today sir
good good I got the experience how lucky all the East Coasters are today. I'm in New York, so it's nice to have to wake up only at 7 a.m., not 4.
But, yeah, I don't really know much what happened in the market today.
I've been quite busy, but we had to sell off.
But I do think it's really important to make sure this pause or maybe this, like pullback slight pullback isn't confused with a
massive pullback and a bull market's over like i think that everyone can agree the market needed
a breather and i do think as we begin second half of 2025 we have somewhat of a perfect setup because
uh a the feds behind like i do believe that they should probably cut rates
already um literally simple thesis inflation is the two handle interest rates are four and a half
that delta should not be that wide and i think uh that's something that needs to be adjusted
before something breaks and i do believe that rate cuts are coming regardless of whether or not the dot plot shows it or
uh whoever if pal doesn't even want to say it out loud investors are already betting on it i think
that's what the front running is happening the market recently in the past couple weeks is
rate cuts are coming it's the worst world's worst kept secret pals rate cut window is closing closing and the market's a forward looking
mechanism so i think there's getting ahead of that so if you're part of the camp where you're
just going to be waiting on the sidelines until we officially get like the first rate cut in
september i think that's uh a bit premature because that's typically not when the move actually
happens that's actually usually to sell the move
because the move already happened leading up to that event so i do think like we are entering a
period where rate cuts are gonna actually happen and ai like you guys uh mentioned it before and
obviously i'm the big ai bull so i'm talking my book but it's still the main event it's what's
chugging this market along.
Like big tech is throwing even more money at AI like never before.
Yes, the year-over-year growth might be slowly diminishing, but there's going to be trillions of dollars being spent in the next couple of years.
Like you heard Dan Ives just, I think it was this morning, his second half outlook notes.
I think he said $2 trillion by 2028 uh but don't quote me like that's actually i think i'm on part of that camp where that's not too aggressive it's not like
an ives estimate where it's the most aggressive on the street i think that's actually floor to
reality and when when there's any kind of geopolitical risk you got a quick glimpse recently on what's going to happen to AI when geopolitical
tensions rise.
You can't turn the switch off on your CapEx spend when there's this massive tariff or
the Middle East tensions are rising.
We got proof of that.
So I think that trillions of dollars that are being spent the next couple of years will
continue chugging along regardless of what the Fed's going to do, regardless of the geopolitical tensions rising, because you can't just turn that switch off.
And if you do, you're at risk for your biggest competitors getting ahead in this AI race, which I think safe to say from all the hyperscalers that this is their biggest attention like you just heard
zuck uh last week just reiterate how important it is to him that he made the shadow aqua hire of
scale ai through 15 billion just to get alexander wing in-house and also to remove
the data labeling moat that google and OpenAI was using from scale.
Like, this is going to get, I want to say ugly,
but it's going to get hyper-competitive between all these hyperscalers because they're all racing for one thing, superintelligence.
Zuck's creating a roster of superintelligence gurus.
Like, it's funny.
I made a comment about it early on Yahoo.
The NBA free agency started this week,
but it also feels like the AI free agency is starting as well.
Like I think there's going to be a massive talent grab
that's going to be happening the rest of the year
where these individuals are getting $100 million signing bonuses
thrown at them if they're proven to be the AI,
like one of those mega brains in the AI space.
That's because that's like showing you the precursor
of how big this AI theme is going to become.
Like it's truly intelligence
and it's truly going to be structured.
It's going to structurally shift
so many different industries
and it's not going to just pause or slow down.
It's probably going to accelerate.
Like Jensen made a comment,
$100 trillion is going to be spent on AI infrastructure.
I don't think he said a time window, but it's going to be so substantial that it's going to be a safety blanket.
So it's like almost a combination of you can be aggressive, offensive by being risk-on in these AI names,
but you can also be somewhat defensive as well because it is a safety blanket,
especially the security names, especially the MAG-7 names.
The mid-cap names, smaller-cap names that have been catching
some ridiculous bids recently, like maybe those are the names that need a breather.
And unfortunately, those are some names in my book as well.
But I do think this AI maintaining their main event status
will provide a very high floor on the market for
quite some time.
And there has to be a true black swan variable to really buck this bull market.
And I think the last two months proved that, in my opinion.
What else did I notice?
I think the, let's see, Robinhood.
I don't think I got a chance to talk to Robinhood.
I'm like, wow. Can't be't think I got a chance to talk to Robinhood. Like, wow.
Can't be there about to be a $100 billion company.
I don't know what they are today, but I saw this morning they're like $98.
I don't know if they hit $100 or not yet.
It fell off, actually.
It was down at like $90.
It got down to $90.
It held pretty well there.
It was $92, $93 last year.
Yeah, it's $92 right now.
By the way, I don't know if you're a Figma guy, but they just filed to go public
on the New York Stock Exchange.
FIG is what they're going to go with.
But that might be coming kind of soon.
I still can't believe they didn't let Adobe acquire them.
I don't know what the reason was two years
ago or not, but
Figma is, again,
I'm not a target market for them,
but they are kind of the
hotter Photoshop name than what Adobe does.
They've been a really great acquire for Adobe.
But yeah, also, you brought up the point.
I think IPO season is going to be really hot.
And I think that you're going to see a lot of AI and crypto names hit the market because you're seeing the appetite for these leverage-themed names catch major bids.
Like I'm not bullish on Corby, for example.
I've been very public about that.
Stocks went up four or five X.
Like maybe we do need what they're offering.
Like maybe that's really hard to replicate.
And there is a space in the future digital economy for a name like that.
I just don't like their business model of constantly being heavy CapEx.
There is no margin expansion because they have to always pay for the latest and greatest but they're a great trading tool if your AI is the AI trades humming you go to core weave
to capitalize love alpha same thing for crypto crypto's humming right now and I think stable
coin is one of the hottest topics recently the guest uh when i was on charles's show this morning the guest before me was all about stablecoin and ethereum like she was super bullish and she was
like i've seen this for years but uh circle is just creating a lot of spotlight on on that
beam now but it's been there for a while it's going to change the infrastructure for a lot of um
financial institutions going forward but again like i don't I don't know much about that space, but they're catching a major bid because crypto
is on fire.
So I think a lot of companies on private markets are seeing this, and they probably want to
capitalize on that and go public before who knows if something breaks in the market and
it's too late.
So I think that M&A IPOs are going to be very healthy for a bull market. I do think
M&As will significantly pick up. You got whiz getting acquired, but potentially getting acquired
by Google. I think there's going to be a lot more. You're seeing snowflake make some acquisition
Databricks. I think the biggest, so I think the next wave of AI which I you want to hear something a
little twist on the Sigma IPO they own 70 million dollars of Bitcoin Wow smart
so now they have that narrative a little narrative says I have no idea why they
would even own that but that's a great low-hanging fruit narrative one but yeah
where's it going oh the next winners this AI wave is going to not
really be these hyperscalers that's why I'm still bullish on the mid cap names
it's truly going to be the like this next wave isn't going to be whoever
builds the biggest AI models like you're seeing how important foundational
models are like with what Meta is doing for scale. Like they had a poor foundational model.
They need one.
They made spending $20 billion on it.
Apple, they are sick of being behind in the AI race.
So what are they doing?
We have to wave the white flag on our internal foundational model.
We have to go external or risk being way too far behind in this AI race.
too far behind this ai race they're going to probably partner with perplexity or open ai
They're going to probably partner up with Perplexity or OpenAI.
whoever whatever uh outsourcing third-party company they're going to use for that it's still
going to be beneficial for apple but in the near term because i don't know how much google was
paying them for their go-to search i want to say it's like 20 billion they're going to be making
billions of dollars from open ai or perplexity on just getting
that real estate on Apple's devices. It's going to be a great lever for them to pull, but I still
think it's really important to have an internal foundational model. And that's something that,
if this rumor is true, that's worrisome. But either way, this first wave you're seeing,
it's clearly all about foundational models, hardware, etc.
I do think the next AI wave won't be whomever builds the biggest AI models.
It's going to be who can orchestrate outcomes at scale.
That's the second wave.
That's the application wave.
So I think that a lot of middleware software companies
are going to look sexy in the near term because of
this uh narrative of like low-hanging fruit that they can capitalize on from all the board
of director members just telling their ceos like what are you doing about ai and they're causing
the ctos and cios to overspend on software but eventually there's gonna be an roi conversation
and i think a lot of software names will struggle but the names that will benefit are the ones who can actually orchestrate outcomes at scale the Palantirs
the hopefully Tesla in the physical AI realm and you're seeing cloudflare crowdstrike a lot of
security names and like the dark horses and like snowflake and mongo either way excuse me I do think
that AI is the main event it's going to
continue and that's going to provide a very high floor on any kind of pullback especially when
it's going to cause an opex margin expansion opportunity because eventually there's going to
be a turn the faucet off on this stupid amount of middleware software subscriptions that they're paying that once
NGENTIC AI has that chat GPT moment which spoiler alert they have not had that yet we're a ways away
but when it does it's going to be a massive opx lever that's going to pull it and that's going to
cause earnings to expand that's going to cause an revisions estimates to go up. So like I think we're not there yet
But again, like just like we're not at the rate cut cycle
Yet I think of markets pricing and that as well as the earnings expansion
That's gonna happen from the OpEx lever or FOSTA being pulled back, but I went really long
So I'll pass it back to you Evan
wait, I have a question
Shad you do you have any inflection point?
Like you use the salary cap analogy.
Like, you know, obviously sometimes when you have teams that overpay for, you know, the top end guys that aren't really top end guys.
I'm not saying any of the meta guys aren't top end.
But is there like an inflection point where you start to worry about how much money is being thrown at these people based on like return on investment i'd say that we're
ways away from that and i'll give you an example i i said earlier on y'all so meta for zuck thinks
meta is falling behind uh llama three to llama four jump was minimal and i think that even chat
gbt4 to 4.5 was minimal i think there there's a spot here
that's low gain low trick but i digress a little right there so zuck he he's worried about uh meta's
place in the ai race they're uh don't quote me on this i think they're like two trillion dollars
maybe one point it's just round up to two trillion dollars if they prove that if zuck gets a whiff
of them falling behind an ai and they're not going to have that AI narrative, that might be a 25% haircut for them.
So that 25% is $500 billion at risk.
So spending $100 million per FTE of their super intelligence team, it truly is minimal for what's at risk on falling behind to maybe being a tier two or tier three AI player.
So I think we're years away from what you're highlighting, Wolfie, on like, all right, when are they going to actually have the conversation of ROI per AI spend on headcounts, foundational models, et cetera?
foundational models, et cetera. Like, I think we're years away from that. I really think that
Like, I think we're years away from that.
I know odds is very bullish, but like, I do think his multi-trillion dollar estimate by 2020,
I think that's actually a reality. And a lot of times like people price on PE or multiples are
usually within 12 months. I think that because I think it's really important in this super cycle
we're in to have a multi-year outlook.
And I think the trillions of dollars being spent, they're not going to fuss over spending millions of dollars,
especially when it's going to consistently grow and grow.
And we have an abundance of models out there as well.
And I think it's really important that even in China, I'm blanking on the names, but Alibaba is a great model.
DeepSeek has a great model. Uh, deep seek has a great model. They have great specific nuances of their models that are gonna be beneficial for other
competitors to use, uh, within theirs.
But I just think that there's so much competition on the foundational models that they're going
to have to continue investing for years in order to accelerate their path towards super intelligence
so i i know maybe i didn't answer your question directly wolfie but i just think we're so far
away from that that it's more of a little rock than a big rock for a lot of the ceos and ccs
you you answered it i'm i'm mostly asking because i remember a few years ago they you know this is
not the same so i'm not on the front end
i'm going to say it's not the same they but they were pushing for the the metaverse and then like
one of the moves they made after they had like that earnings that dropped 25 or something like
that was they just quickly pivoted out of it and they're just like all right we're done we're going
to cut this uh cut this cost and go a different route um so, so I'm, I'm just asking just based off,
I know, I know they're not nearly, I'm not comparing. No, no, no, I totally, I totally get it. I think you brought up a great point though, because I think eventually during the cloud
booms initially as well. And like.com era, I get questions all the time with the.com era, how
this is the next one. I think it's important. Like the metaverse, for example, that was product
oriented, that disruption again.comcom era product oriented the cloud era
product oriented i think ai is something totally different where it's intelligence it's a
characteristic it's not a product really yeah there can be products out of it but it's really
a characteristic of the world is going to become a boom of productivity due to the intelligence
factor into that so that knowing that it's not a product revolution, it's more of a characteristic trait,
that's going to be structurally impactful for so many different industries
that it won't be – they will never have that metaverse pause, for example, type of thing.
So I want to add more color to that.
But I agree.
You're not saying it's like a metaverse 2.0 but i want to call out the listeners because like i get that question all the time about dot com uh bubble
ai bubble etc
zucker i was waiting for someone else to come in and lead the host but it was me uh zuckerberg has
done a pretty good job with acquisitions if you look
at their biggest ones. Even Oculus
you could argue how well did it work
out. There is clearly some talent there with
Palmer Lockie.
WhatsApp, $19 billion. Oculus,
$2 billion. Instagram, $1 billion.
Yep.
You know, the interesting thing about
some of these latest trends, this is just like a side comment. I think it's really amazing that right now for meta, one of the, you know, AR innovation things that people point to are these glasses and, you know, whether it's Google or meta or anybody else down the, down the pike.
whether it's Google or Meta or anybody else down the pike.
I just find it really amazing that Snapchat was actually first to that.
They just weren't in the right time space for it or the right usage.
I think Snap would get acquired if it wasn't for Evan owning uh owning like all the voting powers and essentially you
have to get his approval to get bought and why would he when he treats snapchat as his piggy bank
that's why you also see no activists try to disrupt snapchat because there's it's no point
it's a waste of mental capital exercise but yeah i mean i think I think Matt is going to figure it out. Like I'm not I don't even think they're that far behind.
I just think it honestly it highlights how incredible Google is.
Like Google's control of their whole infrastructure stack is underappreciated.
TPUs, Gemini's, etc.
That Matt has to spend $20 billion just to improve their foundational model to
prove how valuable Google's privacy stack is. And I think that there's going to be a lot more
shadow acquisitions. And when I call out shadow acquisitions, I want to call it out like the reason that these companies do so is this ai race is every minute counts and clearly zuck wanted alexander wang to lead his super
intelligence team if he just made the traditional mna yes it might get blocked due to some red tape
you're actually bs that's a risk it's going to take a long time for Alexander Wang to really go underneath Meta's umbrella.
That's annoying.
So I think you're going to see a lot more people or companies try to do the same similar thing where they acquire 49% of a company that immediately gets the talent pool that they wanted internally.
So I think a lot of private markets are going to get acquired in a similar deal like that.
But yeah, I'll pass it to you.
I don't know where I was going with that.
Well, I saw something like two weeks ago or a week ago.
I read a piece and they said that Google trades like a conglomerate.
And that just really stuck with me because they really do.
All right, Mr. Talk.
What's going on? What's cracking?
Yeah, I didn't do too much today.
Obviously, a pullback and a lot of momentum names.
I was slipping through daily charts, um, second half of the session. And even with some of these five or 6% pullback to some of these, uh, momentum market leading names,
their daily charts still aren't broken. You know, I started getting concerned about,
um, uh, uh, selling action in the market leaders and the momentum names,
I start getting concerned about it when the weekly charts start breaking down.
And that's what happened in late February after the deep seek sell off.
So I'm not seeing that yet.
Maybe if we get a couple more days where these names get sold into the end of the week, then you may start seeing
some breakdowns. But for now, this just looks like kind of overdue, frankly, profit taking on
a lot of these names that have run hundreds of percent off the lows. And the relative strength
today, obviously, not only in regional banks,re's having a monster day up three percent
but you're seeing that strength and a lot of what i like to call traditional economy stocks consumer
staples health care yeah airlines some oil and gas stocks seeing some nice days gold energy
consumer discretionaries financials that's what's performing today and those stocks have underper have underperformed, frankly, not only for most of this year, but most of
last year as well.
So you're going to have days where you see rotational bids into those names.
And I think that's what today is, at least, you know, at face value.
Now, we'll see later in the week if the selling continues, then there may be some breakdowns
and there may be some risk management warranted.
But for now, I think the action's fine.
The names that we came into this week with, the new sort of sector and trade that I opened
up in these Bitcoin mining and high performance compute names, that's still holding pretty
well today in an environment where a lot of those types of names, the thematic names, if you will, are selling.
Those are all holding pretty well.
Iron's up another 5% today.
Seems to be relentless to the upside for that name.
Obviously, Coors is still holding about 17, which is where it went to.
We're at 16s, really.
High 16s after the Wall Street Journal rumor came out.
We also have Clean spark holding up well.
They had a B. Riley note this morning talking about how they are a sympathy play to that
whole thing.
And I don't know, I could count 15, 20 of those data centers slash high performance
compute slash Bitcoin mining names that are green today.
So that's certainly an area where the bid did not evaporate.
And so, yeah, it's kind of a digestion day.
Obviously, Amazon was green today, too.
A lot of consumer discretionary names green.
Magnite found its way back into the green, into the close.
That stock's just been relentlessly strong.
Up, down, sideways markets.
It's just had a crazy bid.
I mean, you had that price start yesterday
from rosenblatt to 38 but you pull up the magnite chart basically since this thing
emerged above the 200 day it's been uh just consolidating in this upward melt i don't
even want to call it consolidation because it's not consolidation i mean the stocks moved
dramatically uh off the 200 day uh and just
nothing but buyers like not a seller in sight on the volume profile on magnite so that thing just
continues to cook to the upside even though a lot of it's sort of uh peer performing stocks are down
today i thought crisper therapeutics held up remarkably well again considering the types of
stocks that were sold today i thought that that held up pretty well. Again, considering the types of stocks that were sold today,
I thought that that held up pretty well.
Actually, there's a point today where I wanted to go green.
Same thing with Sphere.
Same thing with Warby Parker.
So a couple of these names where I don't see the sellers showing up yet.
And then on some of the big high flyers like Nebius,
which is one of our core positions
that's at nine percent today so that one got hit but i mean you go pull that chart up
daily looks absolutely fine you know you have a low volume sell right into the nine a little bit
below i mean maybe you get some selling pressure into the 21 for this thing but it continues to
look like one of the best charts on the market and i mean most of these names still look great so when those start breaking down then
you know maybe it will uh manage some risk add some hedges etc all those good things that we did
back in february but i'm not quite there yet um you know once you've been through markets up down
you've been through you know days where certain stocks you own are down, certain stocks you own are up, you just kind of become numb to it and you just manage it objectively or as objectively as possible, which is what I try to do.
Now, I don't always make the right decision.
Sometimes you sell something that you shouldn't sell or you buy something that you shouldn't buy at the wrong time and you end up paying a price for it.
But that's part of the game.
So, yeah, I think all in all, just a digestion day for the market.
It's a bit of a rotation day.
We'll see if that rotation sticks into the end of this week.
Very well could.
Maybe see a little bit more of a chase into some of these financials and consumer discretionary names into the end of the week.
I do think fintech is a sweet spot right now where it sort of feeds this speculation and animal spirit attitude that the market has been in for the last few months,
but also fits into the, I guess, newfound hotness in the regional bank names and some of the smaller financial names.
So I do think fintech is kind of living in sweet spot here. Maybe over the next couple of months,
I'm going to go through some FinTech charts tonight and see if there's a
couple of names that maybe I want to pick up in that area and maybe make a
basket there.
But that is one area I have my eyes on.
I was sort of scrolling through some of,
I have a pretty big FinTech watch list.
I have like 150 stocks on it.
So I was like scrolling through it.
And I noticed some interesting relative strength stuff.
So I'm going to go through those charts tonight.
Maybe I'll grab a fintech name or two tomorrow.
But I do think they're in a sweet spot right now,
especially if rate cut odds go up into the summer,
which they could,
in the end of the summer, sorry, which they could.
We've seen them tick up.
Goldman's forecast changed this morning.
Their previous forecast was one cut in December,
and now they're at three cuts starting in September.
So they're expecting 25 basis points at the September meeting
and 50 basis points at the December meeting.
If you read the full note from them, I know a lot of people shared that December meeting, if you read the full
note from them, I know a lot of people shared that headline,
but if you read the full note from Goldman, they basically said
that they expect economic weakness
at the end of the year, which they think would accelerate
the path of rate cuts.
So anyway,
we'll see what happens on that front.
Brad, do you think that could
not only invigorate the small cap trade,
and for those that notice IWM, obviously, relative strength today.
I wouldn't say really confirming that 200-day breakout at this juncture,
but you get a couple more days of action up here
than maybe I would consider a confirmation.
But yeah, that was interesting to see that relative strength.
To me, that speaks to the rate cut narrative,
a lot of the names that were strong today and some of these names do have to be rotated to and picked up like there are a lot of
depressed classical industry names you know in health care consumer
discretionary and consumer staples etc there's a lot of names in these
categories that probably should have performed better in the prior eight months just by virtue of being members of the market.
So I'm not surprised that at the start of a new quarter, which is where we are now, that some institutions are like, hmm, maybe we'll pick up some exposure in these other categories if they are looking to get long.
maybe we'll pick up some exposure in these other categories if they are looking to get long.
Because keep in mind, when people are picking up net long exposure or they want to get more long,
which is what we kind of saw at the start of both 23 and 24,
after a hot start to the year, you see these guys try to jump in,
to now we're seeing it sort of later in the year because there was a lot to be worried
about in the front half of the year. You know, institutions are still offsides. You look at most
of the positioning metrics. They're just not long enough. They're certainly less long than they were
according to every metric I've seen. They're a lot less long than they were in February of this year
prior to deep seek, prior to the tariffs. So there is room still for new entrants to fuel the market higher.
The question is, is will the narrative path be clear enough to allow for that?
In other words, will the concerns that kept those institutional buyers on the sidelines in the first half of the year,
will they dissipate enough in the second half of the year that they'll
be willing buyers of the market? And, you know, that depends on your point of view on the whole
tariff scenario. That depends on your point of view on how resilient employment can be into the
end of the year. That depends on your point of view of if the Fed actually will give us two or
maybe three cuts by the end of the year,
depending on what side you take on those things, your view on that could be very different. But for now, as I mentioned, when I try not to take my cues on fear from any one day of price action,
I've said that many times in the past, I'll say it again, like one day is one day, it's not a trend.
But I am cognizant enough of the action to say, OK, when the technical structure is breaking down, that's my cue to be cautious and to manage risk.
We're not quite there yet, from my point of view. In fact, we're a long way from there.
I mean, we're you know, we're still well above the nine EMA on spy.
nine EMA on SPY.
Like that's to me not a zone where you get concerned.
Like that's to me,
not a zone where you get concerned.
If we start breaking down,
we lose the nine,
we lose the 21.
You know,
we start heading back towards the 200.
There's a new negative catalyst on the table about tariffs or inflation or
whatever.
Yeah.
I mean,
that's when you start managing risk and then you break the 200,
then you really manage risk.
But,
you know,
you can do that fluidly if you're skilled enough and you've been doing this for
long enough. New traders probably would have a difficult time with that. But that's what I do.
I mean, that's what I did in February after the deep seek moment. And did I take a hit? Yeah,
I took a hit on the portfolio from the deep seek sell off for sure. I mean, I don't know very many
people that didn't, right? That deep seek sell off kind of came i mean i don't know very many people that didn't right that deep that deep
seek sell-off kind of came on that monday and then boom like stocks melted down in unison so
i took a hit on that but following that hit i said okay i didn't say i'm gonna hedge because
the deep seek moment i had i said i said in fe, I'm going to hedge because the weekly charts are breaking down.
It was a very different, like, yeah, the Deep Seek was the catalyst for it.
But what the price was telling you then was that there was more downside.
And there certainly was more downside from that February Deep Seek sell-off.
And so that's how I'd like to take my cues. I like the weekly charts to show me that maybe something, a bigger sell-off is coming.
And so that's how I'd like to take my cues.
The daily and weekly charts are still technically and structurally intact, and I can flip through a bunch of charts and be like, okay, low volume pullback, low volume pullback, low volume pullback.
That just doesn't make me concerned.
So I try to take my cues about fear from the technical structure in
the market more than I do take it from the news. Because as most of you know, there's a lot of
news. And it's sometimes really hard to interpret that news accurately or what the impact on the
market of that news could be accurately. I think if you ask the average person, for example, that doesn't trade or invest,
like, hey, if a war broke out, do you think it would be good or bad for the stock market?
Like the average person who doesn't listen to these spaces, who doesn't like know about
individual stocks, they'd probably be like, no, it's bad.
But you'd be like, no, it's actually not bad.
And in fact, in most situations, the war, the market actually goes up.
And they'd be like, wow, really?
Or if you were to tell somebody, hey, what if a company missed big, you know, on this
category of their earnings?
And they're like, oh, I think the stock would be down.
Oh, no, the stock's up 20% because it was down 30% going into the earnings.
It's like it's these types of like counterintuitive sort of ways of thinking that, that, that trick people in the market.
yeah,
I don't know.
for me,
I'm totally fine with the way the technical structure looks for now.
Today was a big pullback day in a lot of momentum stocks,
but it was needed,
frankly.
I mean,
you look at some of the momentum names and how extended they were off
their nine and 21 EMA clusters,
like some of them were 20% removed.
Like they have to come back and rest for a little bit.
So sometimes it happens all at once, right?
Sometimes you get two or three minus five or 6% days in a row,
and it just happens in the snap of a finger.
Sometimes it happens over a period of weeks,
and those stocks just slow bleed back into their 21 EMAs, and catalyst comes out and they all rip 15 of the upside like that's how at least
for mid caps the small and mid caps which is mostly what i trade that's how the price action
very often goes you know um so yeah people just need to get used to red if they want to be
effective swing traders or effective investors, either or.
I know whenever I make that comment, people are like, well, I'm not a trader, I'm an investor.
Well, even if you're an investor, you need to get used to seeing red.
And you need to get used to being able to navigate environments where you see a little red clearly.
Like with a clear mind.
Like not to be like, oh my God, there's a stock i own and it's down five percent
today like what is happening what happened to the company did the ceo leave like people freak out
like you know stocks go up and down for no reason sometimes for no discernible reason i should say
not for no reason there's always a reason but for no discernible or publicly available reason, stocks go down all the time.
And they go up all the time, too.
You know, and so I don't know.
Once you adopt the mentality of like, hey, I'm just going to check on the technical structure of the stock.
If it's intact, I'm not going to be worried.
Once it is breaking down, then I can start considering my options.
Do I close the position?
Do maybe I roll out my closer term contract do I add to the position depending on where
it is obviously it's breaking down you don't want to do that you have any any
range of options you can consider at that juncture but if you look at it and
you go well I still like the idea I still like the theme I still like the
company and it's not breaking down you have no reason to sell it and all my biggest winners this year, I've gotten them because of that mentality.
Like Nebius at 23, I could have sold it in the 30s, could have sold it in the 40s,
but there was no reason for me to sell it. The chart wasn't telling me to sell it,
so I didn't sell it. And now it's in the 50s. Even with the pullback today, it's still whatever,
50 bucks. And, you know, Centris Energy, same thing. That thing pulled back today,
but that thing still back today but that
thing still doubled from my entry right why because it gave me no reason to sell it like you can go on
and on and on there's stocks that sometimes give you no reason to sell them and if they don't give
you a reason to sell them you shouldn't like if they don't if a stock's not raising any alarm
then it's just winning for you every day. Like, why would you sell it?
But there's a lot of traders that are like, well, I have to take profits.
I've been trying to take profits, so I take profits.
Like, yeah, I mean, if it's a trade, if you're looking for like a trigger move or a breakout or you're buying the stock that's getting tight in a wedge and that's what you're looking for, then, yeah, you take profits. But if you're buying a horse to ride a thematic, like, I don't know, the nuclear thematic or whatever it is, if you're buying a horse and you're like, hey.
You really want that horse.
I love horses.
I keep using horse analogies.
And I think it's because I subconsciously just want a horse.
But anyway, you're buying a horse sometimes when you're buying a stock.
Not everything you buy is a horse when you're buying in some sometimes when you're buying a stock not every thing you buy is a trade right like there's stocks i buy where they have a nice catalyst
and i'm like oh cool the catalyst is going to move the stock right so i'm going to buy the stock and
when the catalyst is over i'm going to sell it like i don't have any emotional affinity to those
stocks as soon as they're as soon as they're up i I'm like, okay, I'm out. But there's other stocks where
you're like, hey, I want to be an investor in, I don't know, nuclear energy. And I want to own
an asset in that space. And I want to own it for a while, because I think it's going to be a
multi-year thematic. And I'm just giving an example here. I'm not professing for nuclear
energy, although I am a nuclear energy bull, but this is an example. So in that scenario, you would say, okay, do I want to buy a stock and trade it and take profits, quote unquote, in two weeks? Like, no, not if that's your intention. If that's your intention, then you want to build into a position and hold it. Right? And reap the benefits of being right about a thematic over a multi-year period.
That's where you make real money. You know, there's a lot of glorification of like day trading on Twitter. And if you have the money to do it and you're good at it and you want to
day trade, great, have fun, do it. I'm not like discouraging day trading. I day trade sometimes
too. But real money is not made in day trading. Like I know very few day traders, maybe a handful that I've met
that have like decades of experience
that trade highly liquid stocks
and sit at a screen all day and make good money.
But they're also trading with seven,
eight figures in capital on each of those trades
with enormous amounts of money.
Most people don't have that much capital,
A. And B, it's just like a way more grueling way to be a market participant, to sit in front of
the screens all day and be a day trader. It is just a grueling way to be a market participant.
So I don't know. I'm not knocking the day traders necessarily out there, but I do firmly believe
that that's not the way you make big money in the markets. You make big money in the markets by holding a stock with high conviction that goes
higher and higher and higher and higher. That's how you make big money in the markets. And,
you know, when you're not a seller, when you're not a profit taker after the first move, those
Those are like, that's what changes your portfolio.
are like, that's what changes your portfolio. That's what transforms your portfolio.
That's what transforms your portfolio.
So yeah, I don't, I'm not discouraging any type of trading.
I do day trade occasionally.
I mean, you know, I trade a lot of stuff, but over a lot of time frames.
But the biggest winners for me, always, unequivocally, from a dollar perspective, right?
Maybe not even from a percentage perspective, but from a dollar perspective, have been the
stocks that I have bought and held for months, sometimes years.
But always at least for a few months.
And you let the move mature.
You let retail discover it.
And then you let some smaller institutions discover it.
Then maybe one or two bigger institutions.
And by then, the price is materially higher from where you bought it.
And it's a gratifying feeling too to know when you're ahead of those things and you're
like, okay, I think this is worth more and you buy it and you go in with conviction and
size and the market finds it.
That's a very gratifying feeling for you new traders out there who don't know how to generate
your own ideas.
That's extremely gratifying.
Not only will it boost your confidence, but it'll just make you a better trader in general
And so yeah, I don't know at this point. I'm just ranting, but we do have Kevin up here. So that's great
Kevin can give us some useful commentary
What's going on Kevin?
Can you give me like two seconds you me like give me like one minute all right
bottom line of what i said is is learn how to differentiate the stocks that
are thoroughbred horses that you want to keep from the stocks that you're just trading for a
very specific reason and i think the easiest way to do that for a new trader
is just ask yourself, why did I buy it?
If you bought it because it's a wedge breakout on the chart
or you bought it because of some sell side report
or you bought it because of whatever,
some fleeting catalyst, it's probably a trade.
If you bought it because you really love a thematic
and you think it's a quality company
and a good exposure to that thematic
and you think it's undervalued for X, and z reasons that's probably a horse that's probably a stock that
you want to keep and try to build into and monitor the technical structure and make their make sure
everything's gravy and go through the quarterly filings and pay attention to the ceo insider buys
and all that good stuff like that's how you build a winning position over the long term
and you know you can day trade in the meanwhile you can day trade a bunch of stuff in the meanwhile and all that good stuff. That's how you build a winning position over the long term.
And you can day trade in the meanwhile.
You can day trade a bunch of stuff in the meanwhile.
So, yeah, that's really my bottom line point of that whole record.
I see you're ready, Kevin.
All right.
Yeah, sorry about that.
How's everybody doing today?
No, you're good, dude.
We are doing well. It was a little bit of a slower day for the most part, but, you know, when you have a three and a half day week or July 4th weekend coming up, you know, some of these Constellation brands reported earnings. I didn't even dig into how that stock is moving.
Yeah, it's a very low bar for that one. Unchanged. Yeah, those alcohol names.
There's not been many stocks that were on the 52-week low list over the last couple weeks, last couple days, none.
But alcohol names were one of them.
Yeah.
This is a company, I mean, they've been having some issues.
So European sales over the last, what, year and a half, two years have been really low for them or slow.
over the last, what, year and a half, two years have been really low for them or slow.
I think they put some investment in and tried to get into the, I don't want to call it CBD,
but like, I don't want to say the weed space, but like looking at infusions and things of
that nature. I think that operation's out in Canada. I haven't heard anything about that
lately. And then US sales have been a little bit slower. And then their cost is actually,
has been going up as well cost
of aluminum has been impacting their margins and i'm actually curious to see what they're going to
comment about what their comments are going to be around the tariffs and how that's going to impact
their business just from a raw goods uh and input cost uh standpoint right now even i don't even care
left care less about the alcohol demand that has been slowing that seems
like that's a generational thing right now um but i'm they're going to be kind of right there
on that front line because everything that they put into their products right i mean if you're
aluminum if you're talking about uh even steel and build and building out factories.
I mean, they're going to get hit with it.
So they've seen headwinds before.
Let's see if they're going to have headwinds now.
But there's a very low bar there.
So I don't know what the earnings are.
I don't know if you guys want to go through them.
Nah, I don't think people care that much.
I actually did own STZ at one point.
Not anymore.
Let's see how I did on it.
I don't think I did that well.
Hopefully you're short.
No, no.
My cost basically would have been like $220, let's say.
And I sold at $178.
So, didn't do well on that one.
We'll call it tax loss harvesting and say it was a good thing.
What are you watching in this market in general, though?
Look, I like today's action.
If you look at the internals, we were kind of talking about it yesterday.
We had a really good panel.
I went back and even listened to it.
I mean, some of the nuggets that people were talking about before I even came on is really good.
But the value trade or that rotation trade is obviously what we are seeing right now.
Some of this actually is mechanical.
So I think we have to be mindful of that.
It's not like one day somebody said, you know what?
I'd rather just devalue rather than tech.
This is, you know, we had a quarter in on what Friday or quarter in was yesterday.
I keep saying Friday. The reason why I
say Friday, you had the rebalancing of the Russell index and some other indexes, not the S&P 500,
but the Russell and some other international indexes on Friday. X day was Monday. You had
quarterly expiration on Monday. And then now you're seeing kind of,
you know, the portfolio managers, in my opinion, you know, institutions kind of rebalancing to new
benchmarks and then looking for opportunities elsewhere. And if you kind of look at this,
you guys can do this on your own, but if you bring up your watch list, bring up the S&P 100
stocks, or you can look at the 500, don't matter. But if you do the S&P 100, look at the companies
and sort of by the percent change and look at all of these stocks that were obviously heavily in the
green here today. Take the top five, pull up their charts, and then what do you see? A lot of the
stocks that really ripped to the upside today have the same type of chart formations, right?
Basing for a fairly long time, probably left for dead, not really popular when it comes to the upside today, have the same type of chart formations, right? Basing for a fairly long time, probably left for dead,
not really popular when it comes to the options flow space.
I mean, we kind of talk about this every once in a while.
There's gems out there that people just don't trade.
Options might not be as sexy,
but when they rip, they rip and they rip hard, right?
So if you kind of look at the basing formations
for a lot of these companies,
these charts are pretty much all the same.
If this is going to be a trend that does actually last
and something that's more than just the mechanical nature
of starting a new quarter,
starting second half of the year,
dollar flows have to be rebalanced
because that's pretty much what we saw today.
I mean, there's no reason why NVIDIA was getting hit the way it was intraday on no news it was down at six was down
six percent or six bucks or six percent or something like that at one point um without any
news you can just tell that's just uh people just profit taking that's going to be the case a lot
of these chart setups for these companies are looking pretty good and they're just starting out.
So Apple being one of them, obviously we had the news, but regardless of the news,
if you looked at the weekly chart, we actually had a pretty decent setup. It was this triangle formation that it basically broke out of last week. It broke out in time of that formation.
You had the MACD cross that occurred yesterday, right? You have follow through
happening today. You can make the case 215, even 220 over the next couple of weeks if you're
following that weekly chart. Could be in the cards. But a lot of these stocks are looking the
same. Target looking the same. Now, it might have been too aggressive to the upside. But if you do
believe that this trend is going to hold, a lot of these stocks could actually, once again, be very profitable. And these are not
a lot of names that people trade options on. So looking at that, not too concerned about the
broader index in the performance today, because once again, we know it's all about just math
at this point, rather than something that's concerning under the hood.
Volatility, for the most part, held up today.
Credit spreads did go to the downside.
I was talking about that the other day, credit default spots.
Finally moved to the downside today, so that's good.
to the downside today. So that's good. Volume on the index, if you look at the S&P 500 total
composite volume today, looks really good. The only other risk, I think, is...
A little surprising, by the way. I would have expected volume to be a little bit lower today
in this week in general, for sure. Maybe just the first of the month.
Well, no, I mean, once again, yeah, I mean, once again, you have a rebalancing that's taking place right now.
I mean, that's Smuckers.
You guys remember Smuckers?
About a week ago, they had earnings, what, a week ago, two weeks ago.
Horrible earnings, horrible guidance, horrible commentary when it came to the executive team.
Hit a critical area, was consolidating there.
That company is up, what, 5%? Yeah,
it's up 4%, 4.8% today, right? I think these are just people and money being deployed to value,
stocks that were considerably oversold, disconnected from fundamentals. If you look
at dividend yields or high yield dividend stocks in the S&P 500, there's an index for that.
She was up like over 1.8%, I think over 2% at one point today. So I think when you have that,
going back to that, Evan, when you have that and you have over 80 to 85% of the stocks in the S&P
500 moving higher on outsized volume, that collectively is going to push volumes up too.
on outsized volume that collectively is going to push volumes up too. You know what I'm saying?
So this is mechanical for now. I can't like, we can't say, Hey, this is a new trend starting today.
But I think if you see the same type of price action this time next week, I would say that,
yeah, this could be a pretty decent trend. And if you look at the premiums on the options,
not a recommendation, because you could look at the options of the downside as well. If you think that this is overdone, honestly, like
Hershey moving up 7% intraday, I'm like, dude, that's completely nonsense for this company to do
that. You can look at the downside, but like, they're still relatively cheap, even though we
had a pretty decent move today. So there's opportunities within this space. And I, once
again, you could chase the FOMO names all day, but I think if you do have a catch-up trade that's in hand right now,
some of these stocks are trading 40%, 50%, 60% from their halftime highs. I don't know if we
get there, but even if these stocks move another 10% to the upside, the trade options would be a pretty decent trade-off.
The trade front is the only thing that I'm, you know,
some of the commentary over the last couple of days, you know, Friday,
today's comments around Japan seems like we might not be hitting some of the
goals that we stated earlier.
It doesn't seem like the president from his comments is willing to kick the can down the road for some of the goals that we stated earlier. It doesn't seem like the president from his
comments is willing to kick the can down the road for some of these countries. So I think that's
probably your biggest risk point over the next couple of weeks as these deadlines kind of come
to fruition or mature. Outside of that, I don't want to A lot of ideas. Yeah, but who knows, though?
One thing I will say, first of all, since we talked about the taco thing, as in the reporter to Trump, it does feel like he has changed his tone a little bit, for sure.
And another thing I'll say is, you know, we're setting up for that prime position.
This is what he's saying a week out into it, probably when he wants to get everyone to the table.
Let's see what happens when we get to these actual deadlines.
There was a report out of Nikkei, or however I say it correctly, that they're putting some of those talks for Japan on hold and that India is going in front of them.
So it sounds like we're gearing up for a deal with India is maybe some language.
But if we're talking about it July 9th, yeah.
I was just going to say we have been for last month. the india deal was supposed to be announced like six weeks ago you know
like i understand you're you're you know you're putting a positive light on it
uh and i'm not saying you right but
it had to be about six weeks ago can you guys got me uh yeah yeah we got you now i'm sorry my my
thing's messing up because i had a call so it was like five six weeks ago luck nick was like oh
they're india the indian parliament was gonna like vote on a deal that was like a month ago
month and a half ago so i don't know i understand like there's optimism there. You're redeploying resources and focusing, but at the end of the day, it still seems like they missed the mark, at least with their initial assessment here.
It doesn't seem like the market really cares, but if you start seeing a fundamental breakdown, especially like Japan kind of being that first leg to kick out, that's not a good idea.
to kick out, that's not a good...
...out a little bit,
I would get a little bit more concerned. And then the
commentary around Canada is also
a little concerning here. Not enough to sell
off a portfolio or anything like that,
but it just kind of shows that maybe
we priced in a lot of optimism
that these deals are going to be done, and let's
see how the market actually reacts if
some of these don't hit these deadlines.
Well, I mean, we're not going to hit some of these deadlines for sure.
So we're getting close to them.
And it'd be interesting to see.
It'd be interesting to see.
There was one or two headlines.
When we got that one, the market did push lower.
And maybe we could say we didn't recover from it.
But it wasn't an aggressive move.
I do wonder how, you know, if we're 20 headlines deep, 500 headlines deep, whatever you can call it on the trade talks,
and how much the market's still going to move off of it.
But it's also going to be a little different because, you know, some of these deadlines are actually here versus the last two, three months when we were waiting for them.
So it will be interesting to watch.
I know we do have NFP on Thursday,
maybe going a little bit under the radar,
but that's something that I've also been watching.
I'm sure that's on your radar.
Is there any macro data points coming up this week?
I know there was jolts and other PMIs and stuff this morning.
Yeah, well, ISM manufacturing PMI came in better than the street's expectations,
but you are still seeing prices kind of elevate.
And you are still seeing new orders actually contract and come in lower on a month-over-month basis. So that's not really what you want to see.
You know, the bright spot within this report, and I would suggest, like, people that are listening, just type in ISM manufacturer, read the report.
Or even just pull up the chart table because the chart table is
basically a report with charts and it's only like three pages, four pages and it's not a lot of
words, right? But I would actually like suggest reading it. The order backlog is actually increasing.
That was something that did actually see a healthy amount of growth, but new orders is not. So you are kind of seeing this stopping and starting of tariff policy being reflected, at least in the sentiment, when it comes to purchasing managers just alone.
Jolts is a very volatile number.
So, you know, it came in better than the street's expectations, obviously.
But that's a very volatile number.
I think you got to kind of discount jolts moving forward.
I mean, post-COVID, HR managers, companies have obviously posted a lot more jobs than what they're actually willing to hire for to obviously build a Rolodex for potential candidates when things do come available because they obviously
got burned during COVID-19. I don't think you're going to see a normalization back to pre-COVID
levels for job openings right now. And then you have the immigration policy standpoint as well.
I don't think that's going to be a massive driver for that though. Moving forward, what am I looking
at? For tomorrow, I'm going gonna look at the EIA report.
We've had two weeks of really significant draws
for crude oil.
You did see diesel demand also starting to ramp up
pretty aggressively as well.
Diesel has been doing for the most part pretty good
even after the geopolitical risk,
it's holding up pretty well here.
And then we also have the summer driving season
taking place. We do have services PMI for China coming out tomorrow night. That'll be a really
decent gauge. Check out the metals for that. If you actually look at today, and what I found very
interesting is the dollar, it did recover, but the dollar obviously continues to get hit. And we're
probably starting to hit at some levels where it's actually having an impact on commodities.
And every physical metal major contract on the CME physical metal was in the green early on today.
And that's kind of a sign.
Oh, baby, we got the Bezos filing.
I wouldn't cut you off if it wasn't for that.
Looks like Bezos did sell. I knew it. God, it said got the Bezos filing. I wouldn't cut you off if it wasn't for that. It looks like Bezos did sell.
I knew it.
God, it said on the filing, guys.
All right, Bezos sold, that's 3.3 million shares.
Is that all of it?
Is that what it was?
Average cost around $221.
So that times $221.
$100. No, that times 221. 100.
That is not all of it. So he sold like
one-eighth of it. Okay.
Bezos overhang is back. Sorry for cutting you off, Kevin.
No, it's okay. Was that on Friday?
Was that on Friday?
Yeah, he sold on the 27th and the 30th.
Yeah, you can tell by the
Yeah, you can tell by the volume.
The volume candles are starting to perk up when he starts to sell, for sure.
Sorry.
No, it's all good.
No, no, services PMI from China.
Oh, every metal from copper, silver to gold, you name it.
Palladium, platinum.
Platinum's been on the run palladium's
now uh in that catch-up trade was actually in the green uh today that's something that doesn't really
happen that much i think that's really happening because of uh dollar weakness and if we continue
to see dollar weakness i would expect some of these commodities to really kind of perk up
uh jobless claims uh we'll have that you just don't want to see you don't see jobless claims. We'll have that. You don't want to see jobless claims hit the 245,000 to 250,000
mark. I think that's kind of that line in the sand probably for the Fed in nonfarm payrolls.
The estimate right now is sitting at 120,000, but Evan, understand that we've been underestimating
nonfarm payrolls every month. We always have this fear leading up to nonfarm payrolls that the number is going to be bad, that this is going to be the time.
Maybe this will be the time.
There's one analyst, I think, street low expectations, 90,000 last time that I checked.
But we've been lowballing them.
So until that trend changes where we do see a drop off, I would expect that we probably would exceed the street's expectations there.
And unemployment still kind of holds up.
Now, I might be wrong, but once again, go back, look at the estimates, look at what we've been reporting.
We haven't really missed that number, but we continue to revise the estimates to the downside leading up to it.
So that'll be a big one. Unemployment rate, they're expecting a small tick up, but I don't
think it's going to be anything meaningful. So we'll focus on it. It's going to be an interesting
day on that Thursday because it's like a half day too. So you have a lot of economic events,
a half day of trading. So you're going to pack a bunch of volume
in what, three hours?
I think we have three and a half,
four hours of trading.
I know a lot of people who look at like NFP days
and say like, hey, this is a big level
for the high and the low
for the month going forward.
So I wonder how that changes it.
Yeah, you're going to have to ask them.
I don't know.
I don't know how they're going to,
you know, I don't know.
That's a good question
uh because yeah it's just gonna be a lot of volume and you got the you know the holiday too
but i don't think if you're a trader in my opinion i don't think you can ignore um thursday i don't
think you can just discount it right off from a price action standpoint so that's kind of what i'm
what i'm looking at and then like powell kind of leaving the possibility of a July rate cut.
I thought that was very interesting from some of the comments this morning too.
Did the markets price it in at all?
I didn't look at the FedWatch tool.
21%, 22%.
I mean, that's not nothing.
That is not nothing.
Yeah, it's trying to.
Well, see, I think the only way you're going to get that is if this jobs report comes in horribly.
I mean, is it going to?
Why would it?
Well, I mean, initial claims have been moving to the upside.
Continuing claims are starting to see a steady uptrend, and you are seeing a disconnect between there.
a steady uptrend and you are seeing a disconnect between there, the rise in both compared to the
unemployment rate and then also compared to yields. If you look at like a historical, I think it's
like a 20-year historical chart and you plot all three, there's definitely a disconnect. So
I think that's probably why the market continues to say, hey, this is the time, but it just hasn't
been reflected. And unemployment is going to be kind of the unemployment rate is going to be a little bit unique because of the immigration policies really taking a little bit of a hold here.
So you could have a significant, you know, you could have maybe the labor market loose, like tightening up, if you will. But if you also have the population also kind of
contracting as far as available workers, then they're going to kind of offset each other in a
sense as well. So this will be an interesting dynamic here. But I just kind of say everything
looks like the trend still wants to kind of move higher outside of maybe some credit items.
That's a little bit odd, as we talked about yesterday.
But I don't see anything that really shows any type of fundamental crack at the moment.
So that's kind of what I got, man.
I don't want much outside of them.
I appreciate you, Kevin. I appreciate you, Kevin.
I appreciate you.
I see we also got Mr. Sam Solid
joining us up on stage. Sam, how you doing?
Doing good. I mean,
I agree with Kevin. We've got to wait for that
additional data to come out.
The data from this morning
was definitely better than expected.
However, we still are contracting from a global uh pmi perspective uh still below 50 but at the same
time you know it's seeing that jobs number surprise and upside was definitely good news
uh market didn't follow through with the reaction so we'll continue to see with that one
uh but yeah no i've been looking at the cma fed tool seeing what the market's pricing as far as
the fed funds futures uh definitely starting to price in more of a rate cuts in september i think the
market pretty much accepted the fact that it's not going to get a rate cut later on this month
uh but more so in the end of september and ultimately whatever the market's going to price
in is pretty much what the fed's going to do um that's not to say that the data can change
uh leading into it but uh you know the likelihood that the Fed is not going to cut, even though the market's pricing in
for the sever cut at that time.
Wow.
If I just read that correctly, JP Morgan, $50 billion share buyback?
Well, there you go.
They did have that bank stress test the other day.
I haven't seen the full thing yet.
$50 million buyback?
No, B. B, billion. Jeez, that's50 million buyback. No, B,
billion.
Jeez,
that's insane,
man.
I mean,
they might as well.
If they go down,
the whole market's going to go down.
Let's be honest.
Like the largest bank in the entire world.
I think that's implicitly Jamie diamond's tune changing a little bit.
Ooh.
Right.
I mean,
without him opening his mouth
I mean he was pretty negative
on everything like six months ago
so I would imagine if he's down with a
$50 billion buyback
that maybe he feels a little better
I don't know
maybe he's saying that he has nowhere else
but the capital.
Or that, yeah.
Or some other reason.
Maybe he's a deal coming.
I don't know.
Yeah, it's 6% afloat.
6% of market cap.
Yeah, it's not bad. I don't think they do too many of those, right?
When was the last one, Evan?
I'd have to look.
Let me get this post up.
They did also increase their dividend by 10 cents.
Let's see.
Oh, wow. They closed it off.
I'm just saying, I mean, I'm not going to make a huge speculation off this,
but I think all things being equal, it's not bearish.
I see 2022, they authorized a $30 billion share buyback program,
and then later I reported that they
temporarily suspended the
program for allowing for maximum flexibility.
But that was 2022
is the last time I reported about J.P. Morgan having a share buyback.
When in 2022 did they announce it?
April. And then they
froze it when?
July. Yeah.
What did the market
do during 2022 during that period?
I mean, I know 2020 was a bad period,
but what about those months?
Let's see.
I imagine maybe the market went down more.
Yeah, 2022, it looks like it did.
April was like...
Well, 2022, I know it did,
but I'm saying what happened during those months?
Basically, they said they're going to stop
their share buyback program,
give or take right at the bottom. Oh, that's funny. Okay. Yeah, they said they're going to stop their share buyback program, give or take, right at the bottom.
Oh, that's funny.
Okay. Yeah, there you go.
That is what it was. They stopped it about halfway down
more, and then
They got the trough.
Yeah, they started about halfway down
and stopped it full, and then who knows.
I didn't report when they started it back up.
That's funny.
Okay, well, I mean, yeah, I don don't know it's not a bad thing I guess
all right sorry Sam I was a couple interesting stories today you know yeah
Apple got a well not a big upgrade but Jeffries upgraded from underperformed to
hold an Apple from 17170, $188.
I feel like, you know, I think Stock Talk might agree with me.
Like, when you have that inflection with
or the pivot with a lot of these
firms, that's
pretty decent.
There's a Diddy announcement, it sounds like.
What?
I don't know. It says, jury reaches verdict
on several counts in Sean Diddy
Combs' federal criminal trial.
Sam starts going on all the news.
So my bad. Yeah, I got it. Yeah, I'm going to I'm going to definitely tune into that one.
That's going to be. By the way, I want to let you know that this is every single bank is basically increasing dividends right now.
This is from that bank stress test. They must have been able to do this.
Morgan Stanley increased their dividend,
$20 billion share buyback program or multi-year common equity.
Weird.
State Street increased their dividend.
So this is just more across the banks.
Okay.
Regionals did phenomenal today.
Sorry.
That's the last thing I wanted to kind of call out.
Sam is fighting for his life.
Yeah.
You know, good days, good times good times but hey it's gonna happen
we'll see Morgan Stanley out on Wayfair after hours a pretty big note big W
guys the reason the price target to 70 from 50 it's pretty big price are you
raised raising our price target to 70 on Wayfair, implying 35% upside versus the current price from 50.
Our risk reward is asymmetric to the upside.
Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
They're expecting a quantum improvement in...
What the hell does that mean?
A quantum improvement in existing...
They said quantum by i own q
yeah yeah wayfair is doing quantum guys
it's a quantum computing yeah wayfair is getting into quantum computing no i was kidding
uh they think we expect a more benign trade policy macroeconomic and category outlook
wayfair has been oversold blah blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
But that's a pretty big price target for Morgan Stanley.
Wayfair is 70.
That stock, I believe, is still highly shorted.
Let's check.
Have they been bullish Wayfair?
Like, did they switch it?
They were.
It was already overweight rated.
They had a 50 target.
They're raising it to 70.
They say we believe this is one of the most asymmetric mid-cap opportunities in the market.
Interesting.
Let's see here.
I'm going to check this short interest.
Maybe my password's incorrect.
Yeah, it's the end of it's 69 exc mark not question mark it's one two three four five six
starting to see these analysts chase the price targets upwards so as opposed to chasing downward
all right let's let's let let's let Sam Sam come in here I actually want to hear your thoughts on
the day I'm excited to hear it and hopefully there's no major massive breaking news that
randomly comes out now what's what's been going on in your world Sam what's standing out you know
I'll stay quiet if there's a p diddy verdict then I'll stay quiet for that one like that one
it's actually kind of a were you sammy you're asking me something before the oh yeah interest is 22 by the way but anyway go for it i was gonna ask um i mean since you keep
a lot of eye on the uh on the analyst upgrade standard and so on um how how is jeffrey's fared
with apple generally because i did see that note come out i think it was after close apple's up
almost one percent it's pretty big move for apple uh especially after hours but jeffrey's has been
pretty negative on apple for like last two years and i think rightfully so but they uh they had it
underperformed for that note that came out today you're talking about the note that just came out
today right yeah they they upgraded from underperformed to hold. Yeah, they raised their price target by $18 to $188.
Still lower, but kind of a change in sentiment there.
Yeah, they basically said they do believe that the stock should be discounted because of competition in China,
but they said that they feel that maybe the discount has gone a little far.
They think that there could be some recovery with a lighter tariff scenario, and they could see EPS growth roughly 1% to 2% higher than current street consensus.
They said we expect iPhone unit growth to go nowhere and remain near zero for second half of the year due to pulled-in demand and lack of excitement about new Apple intelligence
features for iPhone 17. They say this entire model is assuming the market's more benign view
on the tariff outcome is likely. They also see Apple service revenue is becoming inflated with
downside. They also see good Q3 fiscal year 2025
could keep stocks stable
and lead to higher price than expected.
Upgrade to hold from underperform.
That's like the summary of the notes, basically.
It basically sounds like we don't believe in this company,
but we don't want to be short Apple.
Yeah, but they're also basically saying, look, maybe they think the estimates for China have gotten...
Like, they're not just randomly upgrading it to hold.
They say maybe they think the estimates for China have gotten a little too pessimistic.
That's basically the centerpiece of the note.
So sometimes you can do that.
I think Jeffries is great.
Like, Jeffries is very often one of the shops that, like, doesn't take the consensus view.
And I like that.
And they're not always right.
Morgan Stanley does that a lot, too.
Morgan Stanley will be like, yeah, everyone on the street, like, is raising their price target on this name.
But, like, we think, you know, stock's up 55% in three months.
Like, we're not going to upgrade it again.
Like, it just depends on the year and the shop. you know, stocks up 55% to three months. Like we're not going to upgrade it again. Like they,
like it just depends on the year and the shop,
but, um,
you know,
is that a lot too?
There's like certain shops that are more willing to,
I guess like issue a bold opinion.
Craig Hallam does it a lot too,
especially with small and mid caps.
I like Craig Hallam stuff a lot.
I don't know.
It just depends.
You got any ratings agencies you have a beef with?
Michael America.
H.C. Wainwright ef hutton um
yeah any champagne for them on the wall capital securities
no i don't have any beef with them like that it just like don't i don't like i don't like
shops that are just like pumping dumpy annoys me when they issue like 25 price targets
in one day
and they're all like implying 100% upside
that's just stupid
it's not helpful to anyone
except for people that are trying to pump small caps
but yeah I mean
there's a lot of really good stuff
and there's a lot of really bad stuff
and the people that just see the stuff on Twitter
think it's all bad but it's not all bad
um in fact i would say like a lot of people ask me like where do you find the stocks
that you trade like what scanner do you use and i don't use a scanner i just read research in the
morning that's it and i build watch lists i've been doing it for years and so i have like very
comprehensive watch lists like occasionally there'll be like a stock that's new you know obviously it's like a new ipo or
something i don't know it but like most of the stocks in the areas i trade i know them
and so like when a thematic gets hot or something i just you generally know between two or three
names what i'm going to buy. But that comes to the experience.
Did you add the Tom Lee BMNR to your thing?
It closed pretty much at the low.
No, I didn't.
I'm not going to buy that after a 700% move in one day.
But, I mean, I'm sure.
It's actually down a little now.
Now I have 40.
I'm sure it'll go higher.
But, yeah, I don't buy stuff after moves like that.
But, yeah, I mean, I throw darts at stuff.
Some work, some doesn't and
you know only dance with the music from there but i've just kind of become numb to the like
all the panic and overreaction that you see on most of uh twitter every time the markets are
like up or down or sideways people just like freak out start extrapolating i think the market will tell you
when it's worried through price i don't think you need to guess when things are going to getting
bad like the market will literally show you through price like hey get out you know like
it did in february so you don't have to be like you don't have to So you don't have to be like, you don't have to speculate. You don't have to sit around and wonder,
oh my God, like this might happen.
Like, what is it going to do the market?
There's no point in doing that.
It's actually silly behavior.
Just wait for the price to violently tell you
that it's concerned about something.
And then you manage your risk.
And then once things are gravy again,
then you start throwing darts.
Like this entire second
half of the year for me performance wise has been because i was willing to throw darts after
stuff rebuilt itself in mid to late april i didn't have to catch the bottom in fact i didn't catch
the bottom on anything and i still did very well that shows you that you don't have to guess these things.
You just wait.
When the structure breaks down, you take your hands off, take some risk off, hedge if you need to.
And then when the structure starts rebuilding again, the opportunities present themselves, then you throw darts again.
And you rinse and repeat that process.
And that works in any market, frankly.
Like, if the market strength is not there, the indexes aren't giving you what you want from them in terms of fuel for the fire under your individual stocks.
Then you either cut the individual stocks or you slow exposure and risk altogether.
And you hope that on the other side of it, when the markets recover and structure
rebuilt, you have a list of names that you want to buy. And that's basically the simplest way to
present it. That's the simplest way to present market navigation in general. Like people really
try to overcomplicate trading strategy and portfolio management. But the whole game is when you're confident and things are good,
you press the gas.
When you're not confident and price action is not good,
you stop pressing the gas.
Like that's the whole game front to back in any market.
You know,
it really is that simple.
It's not easy,
but it is simple.
So a day like today today what are you thinking like today i'm going through the daily charts right and i'm asking myself are these pullbacks or breakdowns that's that's what i'm asking myself
on a day like today and most of the names that i went through today in fact all the names i went
through my own portfolio today were they looked like pullbacks to me more than breakdowns.
Now, if we sell tomorrow on those same names, a lot of those pullbacks can become breakdowns,
in which case I would manage risk, in which case I would cut some positions, right?
But I never do it on the first day.
I never do it on the first day of I never do it on the first day of selling
because, yeah, do you miss out on some upside? Yeah, you do. Because if you're wrong and they
sell the next day and they start to break down and you cut your risk, then yeah, you've given
up some gains. But I'm okay with giving up some gains rather than holding a stock that's breaking
down, especially in these momentum names and these sort of tech and smid cap names that a lot of us on the
panel like to trade those can unwind very quickly 40 50 percent very quickly in two weeks three
weeks sometimes so yeah i i'm aware of that ability of unwind in those kind of names and so
i let the market tell me you know and on a day like today, I flipped through daily charts, weekly charts, everything looked gravy to me. So, you know, I treat it as a, as just a pullback day. You know, if tomorrow and the day after those, those same names are down five or 6%, the charts will not look pretty.
cut a lot of them. So it's, it's, it's totally conditional, you know, based on your ability to
review the structure on a day-to-day basis. If you're, if you have short-term exposure on the
table, if you don't have short-term exposure on the table, you probably don't need to look at the
market every day. You can look at the market every week, you know, look at the weekly charts and be
like, okay, cool. Everything's still intact. You know, a lot of times what will happen is
stocks will look gross in the front half of a
week. They'll sell off. The daily charts will break. And then into the end of the week, they'll
put in a beautiful weekly candle and you go into the next week and you're like, oh my God, how did
I get shaken out of that thing? That happens a lot, like a lot. So that, that's an, that again,
you just noticed that with experience,
you recognize that with experience and you're like, Oh, okay. Okay. I'm not going to get shaken
out on that or whatever the case is, but pullbacks happen in markets. The way you navigate them is
how you super perform. If you are outperform, I should say not super perform because not everyone
wants to super perform, but, um, how you outperform is how you navigate the pullbacks of the markets.
That's the key to doing it. Not the, like the upside is the easy part. Like stocks going up
is the easy part of the equation. You know, the neutral state of the market is stocks going up.
You just have to make sure that when they're going up, you're positioned well for it.
Um, and a lot of people struggle on both sides of that. They struggle during market
pullbacks because they panic sell everything and they don't recognize the difference between a
pullback and a breakdown. And then on the upside, they make the mistake of selling everything too
early. They sell everything the second it goes up as opposed to like letting it work. So most
new traders are making mistakes on both ends of that spectrum. And
that leads to very bad performance. You're not going to outperform the market operating that way.
You're probably going to underperform the market pretty dramatically, actually.
So you have to give yourself the ability to compound directionally. And what I mean by that
is like when the market is strong, when we are in a bull market and you are long, you have to let your positions work.
If you're just like super scared of an impending pullback at all times, you won't be able to capture periods like the rebound from the April lows or all of 23 or all of 24 where the markets just went vertical for the whole year you won't be able to capture those opportunities because you'll constantly be selling into strength every month or every week or every
quarter and you'll never get the opportunity to compound on names that go up three or four
or five hundred percent in a two-year period like many names did in the last two years
two and a half years so you have to decide like if you want to make money or if you're just here to like gamble
on a day-to-day basis, which some people are, and that's okay. You know, if you're just here to
treat the market like a sports gambling operation where you throw some money in and buy a name and
sell it and you're like, cool, I made some profit. If that's your goal, uh, which to be honest,
80% of FinTwit is doing that. And and like i'm not talking about the people on fin to
it i'm talking about like the pages on fin to it where they're like here's an idea wedge breakout
like buy it and oh it broke out guys congrats sell you know stocks up 10 that's what most
people are doing on twitter like at risk of mocking that i think if your plan is to do that for the rest of your life and that
that's the extent of your market participation, I don't think you're going to make a lot of money.
If I'm just being flat out, like straight up, that's like a, it can be fun. Sometimes you might
hit a home run or hit a thousand percent weekly call or something. And you feel like a hero and
you make like, you know, 50,000 bucks and you're like, Oh my you make like you know 50 000 bucks and you're
like oh my god like i did it if that's like glorifying to you and that's the reason you're
in markets okay that's fine i'm not gonna i'm no one to tell people what they should or shouldn't
do but if you really want to make money that's not how you make money in markets you make money
in markets by having like high conviction stocks that you own in size and you let them work for you you don't do anything
you just let them work for you and you own them in size with real conviction you know and in a way
that's investing i i think i've said this before i think everyone's just a trader it's just with
different time horizons like i think investors are just traders with very long time horizon
you know and i think
if you're trading a stock for months or a couple of years you own a stock for months or a couple
of years some people classify you as investors some people classify you as a trader it doesn't
really matter you know people are so obsessed with like the labels like oh what am what am i
well i'm an investor so i can't do that uh no i can't sell that i'm an investor you know like
just people people almost pigeonhole
themselves into these categories just for the sake of having a label it's like remarkably silly
the end of the day you're a market participant your goal is to make money that's it that's the
objective right you're in the markets your goal is to make money so you'll find the best way to do that
you don't act like a chicken with your head cut off learn to hold stocks with conviction and then
learn in other times to recognize like i said earlier what's a trade versus what's a
what's a stock you really want to own and keep you see value in but i could talk about this stuff all day, obviously.
We talk about these things all the time.
But we'll see you guys tomorrow.
Obviously, it'll be a short week this week.
We won't have a show on Thursday, right?
Yeah, we won't have a show on Thursday.
We haven't caught.
We weren't going to do spaces.
But I do think, what if we did a live stream?
What if we did a Power Hour live stream?
12 to 1?
We could.
Yeah, we could.
I'm also asking here in front of 576 people so you
guys know who said no.
And you're welcome for that.
But I'm down. One out of two.
I'll get us some guests.
We'll see how I feel on Thursday if we want to do it.
I do like the idea of us finally getting
a short week, though. I could use some sleep.
So we'll see. 100%.
Even the training this week,
you might as well just stop
and just go out. Although Apple,
I mean, frick. What the...
This one's been nice. Ever since we really
got to head on that conversation.
I knew you'd like that Jeffries upgrade. That's why I said it.
Sam, I feel like
we also still, after me trying to get
to you a couple times, we've still
gotten you cut off and we haven't heard what you were talking to
talk about. I'm curious
what was catching your eye?
Well, I mean,
the markets run a lot.
Short weeks tend to be,
well, I mean, I would have said like
smaller ranges, but clearly not the
case today. But if you kind of
look at back where we started yesterday,
I mean, kind of the same place where we started the week. So really nothing's happened except for
the ES. ES is actually up pretty considerably in the week. But we could just easily get that
all back tomorrow. I mean, I'm not trying to shoot for the hills right now, anything short term.
I do see this as somewhat as a little bit of a pullback. Um, cause I am seeing equal weight up considerably today.
And a lot of names up today, like it's not like a major sell off anything, uh, with the
exception of a few names.
Um, but at the same time, I mean, HUD has been up like, like more than double, almost
triple since it's April lows.
So, you know, you've been pulling back today and having those overnight highs near a hundred
dollars. I mean, that could all change back today and having those overnight highs near a hundred dollars.
I mean, that could all change back tomorrow,
but I'm not trying to bend anything short term like that,
to be honest.
I mean, it's just, that's a core holding.
I am not looking to sell covered calls
or anything against it.
I mean, that's the thing.
Like I know a lot of people are in a covered call game.
They want to make some income off their stocks,
but then you get like what we just saw in hood
and you're just like, oh shoot, I shouldn't have it. I mean, like you only made maybe like a few
thousand dollars, maybe more if you have more shares and so on. But depending how aggressive
you are, it's just some people, they sell cover calls that are like way far out of the money,
like two weeks out. And maybe they got a little bit lucky in this scenario, but some people are
a bit aggressive at that. They sell the weeklies that are maybe $5, $10 close to the money,
and then they see a day like today where hood is up basically like 10,
12 points from $80, and then a couple weeks ago it was like $70,
right after that inclusion with the SP500 where there was no rebounds whatsoever,
so it sold off a little bit.
Just very difficult to sell covered calls in these momentum stocks, especially leaders in the market.
So, you know, just kind of staying naked with that, not to uncover calls against really anything right now.
Same time, kind of reducing the amount of leverage exposure.
My risk tolerance is actually pretty low.
It's not that high.
My positions I tend to size pretty small when it comes to using leverage or calls and a day like today. And I'm just kind of sitting and just
waiting to see what's happening. I mean, I did put on a small position in IREN, mostly because
there's a lot of momentum there. It was up like 10, 12% today. And then it pulled back down up
only, sorry, up only 5%. I think that whole narrative is still going to continue, but I mean, we'll see with the BNMR or the one that Tom leads in, but that, that, that has like a mark cap,
like $200 million. So, you know, there might be some manipulation there as far as some trading
going on with some hedge funds, whatever it is, it doesn't take a whole lot of capital over that
one, but you know, the other names were following what Stock Talk was saying with the Coors acquisition from CoreWeave.
I mean, that sentiment is – or that momentum is still there, in my opinion, being that those were the plays that are kind of green today.
So, you know, going to continue holding that one.
Again, not a big position.
It's like 0.5% of portfolio in those leaps that I bought in Iron.
But, you know, just keep it a lookout, and I will be ready to cut this in case it's my
stop loss without an issue.
The volume on these, I'm also long Iron.
We got along last week with 13 calls up like 200% today, which is awesome.
But I'm along a bunch of the miners, long Riot and cypher um i think if the cores deal goes
through a 20 plus these are all going to be massively re-rated there's a couple things
interesting about these names last couple days cypher i actually just posted the chart earlier
i'll pin it at the top cypher's a 1.8 billion market cap um i haven't seen volume like this on a 1.8 billion market cap. I don't know, maybe in
years. But it was two bars in a row. So it was highest ever volume. Then it did another highest
ever volume. That's where we bought it. Or that's where I bought it. 2030, one of our analysts in
our server brought this one up to me and I had to buy it when I saw that.
I entered around 4, what was my cost this year, 4.29 on that second highest ever candle.
And then since then, not only has price gone like 20% higher,
but we've put in another two highest ever volume candles.
I mean, obviously relative to each other the second one
was the highest but i mean all of these standalone would have been highest ever volume candles
four in a row you know so that's 280 million shares it's a 260 million share free float
i don't i don't know that's not meaningless like somebody with a lot of capital is buying those shares aggressively,
like in just four days,
the entire float is churned.
And then you look at iron and it's not as standout because iron's had some
higher volume days in the past,
but you look at these last six or seven candles on iron,
it's like seven straight days green.
The volume just keeps getting
higher you know you look at um riot that volume profile is a little messier than the others
but you look at the options chain on that there's activity out to the 35 calls on riot keep in mind
that's 11 call 11 stock there's like 60 000 open interest on the Riot 35 calls for, I think it was December or November, like 60,000 contracts of open interest.
And there's like 30,000 contracts of open interest.
So there's a ton of open interest, share volume, charts emerging above 200-day moving averages, high short interest.
Like this setup is extremely explosive for all of these names.
But obviously the risk remains that the Coors deal doesn't go through
at this massive premium that a lot of people are expecting.
But if that deal does go through, then the chase will continue on these names.
The setups are there for it.
So it's an interesting scenario. I have exposure to it. I have quite a
bit of exposure to it now across those three names. But if it breaks down, it breaks down.
Okay, we get out. Maybe not at the top, but for now, they look pretty promising. Obviously,
there'll be some red days too, and they're very speculative names.
But you're talking about anywhere from 15% to 25% short interest on each of them.
Riot is one of the most highly short.
It's 25% short in free flow.
So if somebody's interested in these names, and I think rightfully so,
because these names have all been priced as Bitcoin miners,
and Bitcoin mining is a shitty business.
It's just a garbage business.
And so these names have been priced not very well relative to Bitcoin, especially if you look at the last cycle and look how the miners did for the people that traded these miners last cycle.
You know, back in 2020 and 2021, you look at how they did back then.
They ripped face when Bitcoin hit new highs.
Right. But now they've sort of underperformed, especially relative to the Bitcoin treasury plays.
And so this Coors deal, what it does is, is it forces a market repricing of their compute assets.
And as a consequence of that repricing, like the market caps have to go up, especially if that deal consummates at a premium.
So that's really, I think, one of the main themes to watch in the market today. Like I mentioned,
pretty much all the momentum stuff sold off today. Those Bitcoin mining and high performance
compute names did not sell off. And what makes that even more interesting is today they traded
detached from Bitcoin. Right. And that makes it even more interesting because you have the high volume,
you have the high open interest, you have the high short interest. And on a day where momentum
selling and Bitcoin is selling, you know, Bitcoin was down like 105 today or whatever.
I don't know what it's at now, but these names weren't down that much. I think Raya was down
like 0.3% into the close. Obviously, Iron was green, Cypher was green. So that you have to, I talk a lot about this idea of like
interpreting what the price is telling you. And this is what I mean by that is like trying to
interpret what the market is telling you through price. And to me, what the market was saying
through price today was that, hey, these stocks are in the middle of a re-rate as high performance compute companies and not just Bitcoin writers.
And, you know, in some scenarios with some of these names that could double the market caps.
And so that's why I think there's a tremendous amount of interest and volume around them now.
And that's why I'm along with those names as well.
So we'll see what happens.
That is fair enough.
They are an interesting one to watch and they fell off for a while too.
There's a lot of different ways
to play that Bitcoin space.
Bitcoin treasuries,
Bitcoin ETFs,
blah, blah, blah,
Bitcoin miners and, you know, they're finding a different lane, which is pretty powerful right now.
All right, we're at a good place in this space.
What are you eating before the gym today, Stock Talk?
You're bulking off on gummy bears?
Off day, off day.
Fresh day.
I'm not going to the gym today.
You know, once you said off day,
I did understand, but I was just going to let you keep going.
Yeah.
I'm chilling. I'm probably going to take a nap.
Amex increasing their dividend
as previously
disclosed, though. Okay.
Dividend and return, blah, blah, blah. Okay.
Alright. Good spaces, team.
I hope that didn't sound too horrible.
I appreciate you all.
See you all.
Make sure you're following Stock Talk and Sam.
We're going to be back live, same time, same place.
Stocks on Spaces, live every single Monday through Thursday,
unless the market's closed on that Thursday, 3 to 5 p.m. Eastern.
Make sure you're following this account.
Once we close down the space, it becomes a recording.
We have yesterday's.
Kevin mentioned that one. Pretty great time.
And yeah, I appreciate
y'all. Have a great one, team. And we'll
catch you all back here again tomorrow.
Peace. Thank you.
