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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: March 12, 2026 Duration: 2:15:47Space Recording
Full Transcription
what is up what is up everybody how are we doing i see one person down below no name there we go
we're getting some more friends in here options mike planet, Planet to the T, Matt Fratton, Ari, Varesch. I appreciate you guys for coming in and hanging out with
us today. First couple people in here. It's going to be an awesome day of stocks on spaces.
As always, boy, have I had a lot of calls today. So I have not had the chance to look
too deep into the market today, Mr. Options Mike. It's a little red here. My individual
stock portfolio, how do you think it's performing mr. options mike
sorry evan what was that how do you think my individual stock portfolio is performing today
give me a percentage oh let's see the market's down like two three percent i'm gonna two percent
i'm gonna say you're down a percent and a half. I'm down 2.4%.
Thank you for having the good thoughts that I'm outperforming the market, though.
Good guy.
Good way to start the spaces.
I am not.
Thanks.
It was all fun and games when I was the Apple guy.
But then I became the BM&R guy.
Tom Lee, wonderful man.
It was good meeting him over the weekend.
And his stock has not treated me so well.
So, yeah.
The portfolio is underperforming the s p 500
a little bit there when i look into this i met oh bmr has gone three percent so i mean there are
some worse ones but when i look through the green names in my portfolio msgs the knicks and the
rangers sales force up a little bit you know i mean sometimes you just have to learn to take a
loss i'm not saying you should hear but as some you should have a place you should have cut it off my toxic trait though is
i genuinely do think i'm going to make money in long term in bmr like i really do believe in ethereum
and i probably just don't believe it's i just don't believe it's needed anymore because
you don't need the leverage etns, these companies that are leveraged anymore.
There's easier ways to trade it without them and the risk.
Yeah, I will say when I first bought into BM&R,
I was not able to stake in New York.
I believe you can stake in New York now.
So they are changing one or two things there.
I get what you're saying.
Maybe I should have.
I did tax loss harvest half of it.
So we took a little bit and then I made and then a little bit more this past week.
Don't say anything now. So, um, yeah, I don't know. My toxic trade is I still believe in it,
even after it's lost me this money. Someone's got to talk me out of it. We'll, we'll, we'll bring back this part when stock talks here. Cause we'll, he'll, he'll like making fun of me on this one.
Um, there was a couple of geopolitical headlines today. Straight of Hormuz, maybe not mine.
Maybe it is mine.
I don't know.
Saudi Aramco reportedly buying Ukrainian drones.
Palantir is having an event today.
They have their Palantir AIP Con.
This is their ninth one.
I thought it was pretty freaking awesome,
the setup that they made for Amit.
If you didn't know, Amit's background
is always these bricks and stuff,
and Palantir
literally set up his office there. That was pretty freaking cool. Palantir is a company
that cares about retail investors. Now, maybe I am a little biased in that direction because
they've been good to me and good to the team, but yeah, they were one of the first people
who actually cared about retail. Robinhood, NVIDIA. I don't know if i'm allowed to say this i might i won't say it
i got invited to an event of another mag 7 name could be cool could be cool but uh companies are
taking retail more seriously palantir is one of them from the start palantir did have a lot of
headlines this morning they had uh one partnership with nvidia which is the first one i post posted
and then they had a partnership with centrist energy on das oh and ds for all of you guys's bulls i know stock snipe
is here he's actually in the uh the room with me i'm in miami right now so he is uh it's a studio
apartment so there's not much space in between is what we could say i'd never live in a studio
one bedroom is the max i'd go but pal Palantir, back to that. Partnership with Centris Energy, partnership with Ondus, partnership with General Electric, all of that
was announced today. Uber launching a new chauffeur option. Wow. I'm just going to skip
past that one. I was looking at the word and I couldn't get it out because it just doesn't
look like it's how it sounds. We did have initial jobless claims come in this morning,
slightly, slightly below expectations, but pretty much in line. For anyone who doesn't know,
part of the government is shut down, has been shut down for a little bit. This is going to be
the first week that TSA workers were going to go without a paycheck. We did have the Energy
Secretary Wright come out this morning, obviously famous for deleting a tweet. We did have the Energy Secretary, Wright, come out this morning,
obviously famous for deleting a tweet. He came out with a comment on CNBC. The U.S. is not ready,
not ready, to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. It will happen soon,
but it can't right now. A couple other stories from last night, and then we'll bring in some
of our friends.
Atlassian Picker Team, they announced that they are cutting 10% of their workforce.
Now, they really did talk about AI in this press release.
Quote from the Atlassian CEO, it would be disingenuous to pretend AI doesn't change the mix of skills we need or the number of roles required in certain areas.
It does. So the
Atlassian CEO was very clear about why they are cutting jobs, and it was because of AI.
I'm actually going to reshare that one out. I thought that one was, I don't know if interesting
is the right word that I want to say here when people are losing their job, but fears are kind
of starting to be talked about. There was also
Cursor reportedly raising a $50 billion valuation. That is a private company. Did you know that Nike
stock has closed the day lower for nine trading days in a row? How is it doing today? It is down
another 3%. Nike's about to close the day lower for 10 trading days in a row. Rivian came out with an announcement today. They're releasing their
R2 lineup. I know this has been hotly anticipated. Similar-ish in the... Wow, so Rivian stock's down
7%, all right, so they didn't like it. Lucid came out today. They came out with a couple things.
They said that they plan to be cash flow positive by the end of the decade. Big if true. They also said that they are planning to do this through the robo-taxi and other stuff like that.
They released a concept car. We shall see. But, you know, concept cars are only going to be so much.
Now I am seeing a headline. The U.S. Navy will escort vessels through Strait of Hermoon as soon
as military possible. As militarily possible, Besant tells Sky News.
The U.S. Navy will begin escorting ships through the Strait of Hermoon as soon as militarily possible.
Jeez, I just re-read it and had the same problems.
Alright, I've been talking a lot.
Options Mike, how you doing, sir?
Evan, I'm good, man.
You?
I'm doing well.
We started, we did this song and dance before, but it's a busy day.
I've had a lot of calls.
I was at Future Proof, so I was pushing some stuff off into the later part of the week,
and guess what?
It is now the later part of the week, which is always a fun time.
But markets red, stocks on spaces.
I don't know. I'm good. What'd you trade today?
I did not a lot again today. I did two little trades today.
I took a little scalp on NVIDIA in the first couple of minutes with stock.
And then I, I talked pre-market, my group of that, you know,
we were looking at energy and I said, I really liked the way Oxy set up here so i grabbed some april calls on them sorry march 60 calls and and rode those for
a long time and uh that's it uh i liked oxy because oxy hadn't run like the other names like
exxon mobile and chevron and i i think you know at this point the the world and the markets waking
up to that we have a it's not going to be easy to disengage ourselves from this at this point.
And, you know, they can talk all they want about putting escort ships in that Gulf, but, you know, they're going to be sitting ducks and they know it.
And the admirals are probably telling them, you cannot put our, until you have control of the shores of Iran,an which is not easy going to be easy without boots
on the ground you cannot put boots on the ground you cannot put the ships in there
so you know the market's sitting here today and it's trying to digest all this and uh you know
it's the constant back and forth we won the war yesterday he said it's over then a little while
later on uh we need a lot of time you know we need to make sure we do this right and it's just this
constant back and forth the market's just gyrating it is down here today we gap down uh we're near
the lows here no much of a bounce today and you know the volume's not big there's really just a
lot i mean we're elevated but there's just a lack of buyers nobody wants to buy this market here
and so you know you got to be careful you know you got to look for your spots you know tesla
looked good this morning but it never gave a reason to get into it once the market opened.
You know, just not a lot going on here in terms of stuff I really, really like here in the market right now.
So less is more sitting on the sides is better right now if you're not sure.
I hate markets like this when they're headline driven.
I hate when we get constant headlines and that it'll whip the market briefly but then it typically just goes right back to what it was
doing and so you know it's just just you need to be careful here we have no leadership in this
market i've been saying this for over a week now and until you have leadership in the market you
know it's hard for a market to turn up without leadership something needs to be leading and you
know we had that in different sections of rotation rotation for a while. Everybody keeps saying, where's the money going? Money's
in cash. I think money's in money markets and cash counts and getting taken interest rates.
They'll come back to the market. Don't misunderstand me. But right now,
nobody wants to go in this market. Nobody's rushing to get into this mess.
We just got a truth social post from President Trump.
Where is the Federal Reserve?
Okay, this is a quote.
This is not me.
Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome, quote unquote, too late Powell today?
He should be dropping interest rates immediately, all caps, not waiting for the next meeting.
Because he's trying to distract, right?
You have a problem
with here going on and you have prices going up and he wants the Fed to come to defend his
political policies. And that's not what the Fed does. The menace is not trying to think of him.
That's not what they do. But it's put the blame elsewhere. This is inflationary, guys. I mean,
I hate to say this, but if oil doesn't start coming back down soon oil affects everything we do right everything is transported using oil right everything is
energy a lot of oil is used to make energy a lot of oil products and chemicals which are not being
shipped by the way are are come from crude you know this this can you want to see inflation spike
let oil keep pushing and get above 100.
And then, you know, if it holds there, look out.
I'm seeing another squawk right now.
Same area.
Netanyahu holds first press conference since the start of war with Iran.
I don't know what he's going to say, but apparently that is also going on right now.
Maybe you'd expect a little volatility.
As this happened with last time, time you're gonna see the stocks and
everything start to move first and then you're gonna be like oh what's happening what's happening
we're gonna be able to dig in and i'm sure something will have been said but um no idea
what's what will come from that if anything but i didn't see there were talk earlier today that
israel was considering a ground war with lebanon to root out Hezbollah so maybe he's talking about that
nothing but good news today I know it was one of those markets I'm gonna go
over to mr. stock sniper next and here if you have any thoughts I'm gonna jump
into the conversation obviously stocks night but also running the wolf defense
account so I know you've been keeping up pretty closely on that area on DOS is If you have any thoughts, I want to jump into the conversation. Obviously, StockSniper also running the Wolf Defense account,
so I know you've been keeping up pretty closely on that area.
Ondas is a name you've talked about a bunch.
They had that partnership with Palantir this morning.
We've had conversations around the Strait of Hormuz
and different people talking now.
StockSniper, what's up?
Hey, so yeah, there's three key partnerships
that were announced with Palantir.
The first one that I would talk about briefly is with General Electric.
So for anybody who's not familiar, Palantir has a huge role in the shipbuilding side of things with some companies like Hunts and Ting Ingalls.
And they basically accelerate the production of large ships, whether they're destroyers, carriers, all kinds of different roles and transports.
But they're basically accelerating shipbuilding.
Now, this partnership that is announced today with General Electric is basically saying that they're going to be helping accelerate military aviation.
For anybody who's not familiar with it, General Electric makes a lot more than kitchen appliances.
They also build jet engines and high-performing F-series engines that are often found in most of the U.S. fighters and bombers and some commercial
planes even. So this partnership is going to be pretty huge. It's going to help them roll out
fighter jets, bombers, etc. much quicker than they originally were, as Palantir is notoriously known
to kind of cut their production speeds. And that's going to be huge. The next partnership that we saw
was with NVIDIA. Palantir is going to be running NVIDIA Blackwell chips now and performing at a higher capacity.
But the big one that I really want to talk about is their Andos partnership.
There's a three-way partnership here.
There's another company in here called Worldview.
Worldview specializes in satellite imagery.
And they're planning to develop an advanced multi-domain intelligence program.
They're basically focused on now the post-conflict
cleanup side of things, which on DOS is regularly done.
But now Palantir's software is going to be integrated
into this.
It's going to help them likely do it much more effectively.
And also with the worldview, they're
going to be able to detect exactly where some of these
hazards are.
And on DOS's drones slash ground robots are going to be able to detect exactly where some of these hazards are, and Ondas' drones slash ground robots are going to be able to clean this up
at a much more effective rate and much more quickly.
This is basically not really going to take full effect.
It's going to take them a couple of months to build this out,
and we're likely going to see some of these start to take effect
in quarter four of 2026 on the defense side of things.
But this Stratolite system system that worldview is going to be
providing along with palantir's ai is definitely going to help on us at a much faster rate and help
them clean up a lot of different things and hazards much quicker a lot of things of times
like i've spoke about this on the previous uh stocks on spaces but i don't want to sound too
redundant but a lot of times after a war there's lots of hazards left in the war zone on dos's main role
or one of their biggest uh revenue streams or what it looks like is going to be one of their
biggest revenue streams is going to be that post cleanup conflict side of things where there's
active bombs there's chemicals there's all kinds of different hazards on the battlefield that it's
not exactly the safest for humans to clean up but it has to get cleaned up eventually so now on dos
basically provided the main solution
of sending drones in and autonomous robots in to clean this up and now with some of these key
partners they're going to be able to do this much more effectively and pinpoint the targets and the
hazards much more effectively and clean them up at a much faster rate so there's a lot of news going
around on the side of palantir today and uh yeah you could see a lot more of that coming on Wolf Defense shortly.
Thank you, sir, for the rundown.
I know they also had a little partnership with NVIDIA too.
It's funny to see what company is releasing the press releases.
For the Palantir NVIDIA one, it was Palantir.
And I think for the other ones, it was like for Ondas.
I think Ondas put out the report. But but yeah so a lot of partnerships in that direction was pretty active in that part
of the world they also do have their aip con 9 event going on right now like i said earlier
oh it might be streaming it i have no idea actually but uh yeah be on the lookout for
that one a lot of alex carp dr a Alex Karp squawks as well going around.
Appreciate you, Mr. Stock Sniper.
We do also have an earnings after the close today.
For anyone who doesn't know, obviously, Sniper looks to watch those earnings.
We have Adobe reporting earnings today after the close, Rubrik, SentinelOne, Ulta Beauty, Lenore, and a few others.
But Adobe is the big dog.
Has IGV bottomed?
Maybe, maybe not.
I don't know.
Brian Lunds, has IGV bottomed?
Let's take a look.
You don't actually need to answer that.
You can go with the core of how we're doing on the day, sir.
I always appreciate it.
Okay.
I mean, look, so I'll just answer your question,
even though I know it was kind of a smart-ass question.
Look, when things stop going down, there's steps that have to happen.
The first step, it sounds stupid, but it's true.
Price has to stop going down.
That's the first thing, right?
Then you have to recapture levels.
Then you have to recapture moving.
By the way, that was –
Brian, that is the most brilliant statement made today. Thank you. I know. Thank you. Thank recapture levels. Then you have to recapture moving. By the way, that was – Brian, that is the most brilliant statement made today.
I know.
Brilliant.
And there's been a lot of brilliant statements today, let me tell you.
And then the next thing that has to happen is you have to recapture levels and then moving averages.
And then you have to firm up the chart.
The point I'm trying to make is bottoming is a process, right?
IGV looks like it has started that process pretty well.
You know, the low was about 76. It got as high as 88. That's a pretty good run. It's consolidating
very nicely now, very organized, very orderly. It's right at the 21 and the eight. So my thought would be if it holds in this area and can either, you know,
go sideways for a little bit or then start its next leg up, it's probably has bottomed. But again,
it's a progressive process. There's no one day that tells you of something bottomed. You can
only look in retrospect and see if it has. As far as what I've done today, because I'm sure that's
the next question,
went for a hike, went up to the mountains this morning for about three hours
because there's nothing to do.
There is nothing for me to do in this market.
I have the philosophy, trade less, make more.
I'd rather make $10,000 on one trade than $1,000 on 10 trades.
And right now, unless you're a super aggressive intraday trader,
and some people do that, and that's totally fine,
there's just nothing that looks interesting to me.
I lied. I did do one thing.
I sold some April 17th $10 ONDS puts.
I hope I get assigned the shares,
and I'm doing that to get them at a lower cost. I've been
layering in these sell to open puts on ONDS for the last couple months slowly to build a position
over time, but that's it. That's all I've really done. I'm putting out a daily update today that's
going to ask the question, what would you like your ideal trading life to be? And I'm going to talk about how you can take an opportunity in times like this when
the market's really not doing anything, when it doesn't really need your attention, and try to
figure out how you would like your trading life and your real life to interact. Because that's a
big question I think a lot of people don't answer. They say, I'm going to trade. And then some people
trading takes up all of their
life and it bleeds over into their non-trading life and it makes their life horrible. So I'm
going to talk a little bit today about finding that balance. And these are the things that you
do when the market's in a crappy mode like this. You get away from the screens, you clear your head,
you work on a larger vision of how you want to be a participant in the market, how you want to,
you know, you want to do it for a week, a year, a month, and for the rest of your life. So
that's why I'm out right now.
Go on the hike type of market. I feel like a lot of people were talking to us. Cash is a position.
Your mental sanity is a position as well. You know, so.
Yeah, I mean, I've got positions, but the positions I have are in retirement accounts that I think will be winners over the long run.
I'm I'm building them. You know, we talked about this yesterday and last week, you know, I'm selling puts to get into them.
I'm selling calls when they get ahead of themselves.
I'm just managing.
These are what I call active investments, right?
They're not, you're using trading techniques to manage a longer term position. So you're not just trading for today and tomorrow, but you're also not just buying them and not paying attention to them.
So that's what I'm doing.
But yeah, I went up to Wrightwood today and spent three hours up in the mountains at about
7,500 feet. And it was just amazing. And I feel great. And I'm relaxed and ready to do daily
update. And I'm not stressed. And I hope everyone feels that way. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
You could tell maybe what type of market it is based on the conversations we're having it's a
lot of mentality conversations we got coming up here feels like a prime time for that so we need
to get back to the point when we're talking about uh all the upside we can get that's the fun market
and we were having this conversation yesterday in the second half around 24 7 markets it feels
like a train that is coming no matter what it doesn't feel like a good train that we actually
want to be on uh it it doesn't feel like a good train that we actually want to be on.
It doesn't feel like it's going to be the best thing.
And I imagine these things, these conversations around mental sanity and all this stuff will
increase.
But it just got me to think, Brian, imagine if the market was open 24-7 for the last couple
weeks.
Boy, that would have sucked.
Now, when the market's ripping all-time highs every single day
yeah give me the 24 7 markets that's a fun time there's not much mental stress coming out of that
but i mean the chop market oof yeah that's a fun i mean look uh i'm no luddite but i i feel like
there's some things technology can do uh but they just shouldn't, right? You know, okay, we have the technology to do 24-7 markets, but is that really good for anybody?
You know what it's good for?
Like, we know what it's good for, right?
It's good for the exchanges, right?
Because they want to do this because they want to make more money, more transactions.
But is it really good for the mental health of anybody on this spaces?
I mean, and look, here's the thing.
What's the liquidity going to be overnight,
right? I mean, are you going to get these big moves in names overnight because there's no
liquidity and there's big gaps in the bid and ask and people are going to freak out and sell them?
And then when we get the regular session in the morning, they're going to open up where they
just were, right? And people are going to get shaken out more overnight. I don't know.
more overnight. I don't know. I would hope that this is, you know, the big, the holy grail for
trading has been to internationalize it, right? Because despite what we may think,
the vast majority of the trading that goes on, goes on in the United States. Yes, there's some
in Asia. Yes, there's some in Europe, right? But
most of the world, like if you take the average person that lives in Germany or France or Bolivia
or whatever, they don't have nearly the exposure to stocks that an American person does. They don't
have 401ks that are full of stocks, things like that. So the idea would be, hey, now that we're 24-7,
is there some way that we can convince people that are up at our midnight or up at our two
in the morning or whatever that they should be to continue that liquidity? But the problem is
it's a cultural issue, right? I mean, you can't just show people, hey, you can trade this and
then they just go to it. But that would be
the goal, right? India has been coming on really strong in the last 20 years. A lot of people are
trading India. So it would be great if we could more internationalize the markets, and then that
would help with liquidity. But I think probably in my lifetime, and I'm older, those overnight
hours are going to be very choppy uh and it's you get markets like
that it's just open for manipulation it's open for things that we just really don't want to
you don't want to be checking apple at uh 12 30 at night right and you don't want to be checking
on nvidia at three in the morning the other thing brian there's no stops at night there's no circuit
breakers at night yeah and that's that's a whole nother thing right so i
i i mean because they have them on futures right uh so i mean i wonder if that's something that they'll have to institute right yeah but if there's no liquidity they're going to get people
are going to get killed because i mean how many times do you see a stock drop like you know a
buck or two on 100 shares traded and then all of a sudden bounce right back up the next minute
it's going to get people killed yeah and Yeah, and the thing that people don't understand about pricing,
and so I spent a little bit of time on the broker-dealer side,
and I've seen the Byzantine system.
When you put a trade-in on your trading platform,
it goes usually to your broker.
It then goes to an order routing firm.
It may go to some other intermediary before it goes to the exchange. Then it comes back
to you. Of course, it does this all in milliseconds, right? But the exchange is blind. They don't know
who you are. They don't know Brian Lund place to trade, right? They only know something coming
through the order routing. They don't know if I'm long. They don't know if I'm short.
And what happens a lot of times that people understand is in fast markets,
lot of times people understand is in fast markets, you don't have to have a trade at your price to
trigger your order, right? All you need is a quote at that price because guess what? You are the
trade. Now you can fix that by putting, you know, it depends on what broker dealer you have. There's
certain order categories you can say where, hey, don't execute this unless there's a trade at my price. But my point is the back end of the stock
trading world is so opaque. It is so Byzantine. There's so much stuff that's going on there. And
you put it into a very low liquidity market and it's just ripe for manipulation.
Mike, I wonder if you have any thoughts bouncing off of that.
I know you chimed in for a second there.
I'm really against that for the most part.
I mean, yeah, we need to rest, right?
You need time alone.
You need to unwind to take your head out of the markets every night.
We do this.
It's a long day.
People are like, oh, you do what you want.
You don't work.
I mean, I don't know about you guys, but, you know, i start my days early around five o'clock getting ready prepping getting all
the news together putting you know from my room putting the video together coming up with what i
liked that day coming up with levels for the names i want to trade right so you know by the time the
market's open i put a i put you know good three plus hours in already and gotten a workout in
when the market closes and we're done i I want to free relax, you know,
whether it was a good day and I'm happy, whether it was a bad day,
and I'm a little pissed off at myself, you know,
you need to relax and let your brain unwind.
And if you have 24 by seven, you're not gonna be able to do that.
And people are gonna be sitting here and they're going to just wear
themselves out and you're going to burn out.
And I think that's going to be the problem.
I think there are some clear things that are also going to have to happen on overnights.
Like you were talking right now, the mechanics don't necessarily allow for stops and circuit breakers, but clearly something there is going to have to change.
So I imagine it's going to cause, so a lot of change happens because something happens.
So maybe there's just a massive one day overnight thing that comes in here and wrecks everyone and like okay let's not
do that again and you start to get some of the more of the stuff added um we're going into a
weird couple years and we were talking about this yesterday on here stock talk was saying like
even every single tweet we put out here i don't like we can't stop this the train is coming the
train is coming the wall street is going to make more money off of this. Now, when I think of the end games here, I don't think this is a net benefit for the actual people
doing trading and investing. I do think long-term, there probably does open up a opportunity for a
broker that maybe doesn't embrace all of this new stuff that, sure, maybe it's good for someone,
but it's probably not good for that average long-term customer, long-term investor. And there does create some opportunity in there.
So imagine the broker space itself is going to be changing a bunch over the next couple of years,
obviously. And Robinhood stock, I like the way they're moving. I feel like they're going to be
at the top of it, but I don't think anyone could say that like, I mean, they added prediction
markets onto the platform. Let's not pretend here here like everything they do is for the long-term investor to make more money it's their platform they want
to be a financial ecosystem they want to give you guys the opportunity to go in and do everything
um but i think there's a lane for the other side of it so i don't know it's a conversation that we
had in the second half yesterday i was excited to hear your guys's takes on it yeah i mean look if
you think that robin hood is any different than Facebook, I mean, we are the customer, right? Or we're the product, I guess. And I think the worry
is that, look, when trading became ubiquitous on your phone, people think, oh, it's so great.
It's so convenient, right? Everyone can do it. It's egalitarian. But it removed a lot of friction
for the trading process. It used to be like you had to call your
broker and it was a big process. And by the time you did that, you thought, maybe I'm just panicking.
Now everyone's just push a button. Well, that's added to volatility in the markets in the last
10, 15 years. It's the law of unintended consequences. You don't know what's going to
happen. So the brokers don't care about us. They're not trying to do this for our benefit. They're not trying to make things easier for us.
They're just trying to make more money, right? We are the product. So what the unintended
consequences are, we will see. But I think it's just important that everyone
kind of go into it with their eyes open and understand that overnight trading is probably
not going to be a good thing for them. But you're right. I mean, markets adapt, people adapt, so we'll see what happens.
There's going to be an adoption period.
Not adoption, adoption.
I feel like it's going to be adopted pretty quickly.
The DGENs think they want this, but we'll see.
There'll be a little bit of an in-between period.
My guess is something's going to happen where we thought you would want some certain restrictions
and they're going to figure out it after.
So I don't want to be the person who learns it the hard way.
I don't want to be the reason.
I don't want to be a part of the learning lesson
on why we need overnight circuit breakers.
I just want them there and then benefit from it.
Logical.
How are you doing, sir?
I know you've been on vacation um i heard you
i saw you down below in the space yesterday so i think you heard part of stock talks thoughts on
this one and the guys up here uh i wonder if you have any different thoughts i know it could be a
little different perspective from you as you uh i know you have a full-time job guys guy is in the
tech world he's smart this guy is doing some stuff there so maybe it gives you opportunities in different times um or maybe it just keeps you stressed at more times my guess is probably the
latter and you won't be a fan but what's up logical hope your vacation has been going well went well
you got any thoughts on the 24-hour markets uh yeah so um it's more of the latter definitely
more stressful to have more work at all times uh i, I was in Vegas, but it was for a work conference.
So not much of a, uh, vacation.
I am exhausted and looking at these markets is even more exhausting.
So for me personally, it's like, I think the other guy said it pretty much right,
which is, you know, there's not much to do.
I think I heard Brian say he went on
a hike. I think it's a great idea. I think doing less is more right now. Personally, I really like
a lot of stocks. But the backdrop is ugly. So there's probably more downside ahead. Today,
what I did was, I've been consolidating my portfolio down in number of positions. So today I cut three
positions that were lower conviction. And I use the proceeds to add to my higher convictions that
are getting absolutely stomped. And so it's a little bit of maybe you can call it cutting the
flowers to water the weeds. And I know that's the opposite of what people say you should do.
But yeah, I think it makes a ton of sense for me personally
because I like these names and they don't, you know,
there's nothing wrong with them.
It's just a kind of result of the backdrop.
So yeah, just continue to accumulate in some of these other names
that are getting stomped for no micro reason, more
of a macro backdrop reason. So I think market is in a, I would say accumulation period.
I don't think that this is going to be the end of the bull market. It could cause a more
severe correction within the bull market, which is probably the base case at this point,
which means that there is likely downside ahead. But I just can't get myself to be a seller of
some of these stocks after they're down 30, 40, 50%. And it just doesn't like, is there more
downside from here? Can the total drawdown be we're at 40% now, it ends up being 60%. That would still be a fairly large haircut on some of these names.
Yeah.
But it's also mid-March.
We're not near the end of the year.
I, from a personal standpoint, don't see the need to book losses on positions that I'm
read in at this moment for tax optimization reasons.
I have a lot of year-to-date short-term cap gains
that I've realized I could, you know,
cut some names right off some of those gains,
but it's March, not November.
So I think, yeah, it's just kind of a do less moment.
Definitely volatility ahead.
The situation in the backdrop is not great.
Oil spiking means inflation up. That's why you're
seeing the 10 year yield up. So bonds aren't going to work right now, which is sad because you have
kind of that weak NFP print from last Friday. This is exactly when you want to see actually
that softness in the labor market translate into more cuts being priced in. But this very, very stupid war is essentially causing a roadblock there.
So one thing I will say is I don't think Trump is stupid.
I think this escalation has been idiotic.
I personally think that he will try to find a way to off ramp this.
I personally think that he will try to find a way to off-ramp this.
I don't know how he will, but he'll try to, you know, make it where it seems like he got
a win, just like he did with so many of the tariff wars.
When we truly lost them, we lost the tariff situation by far.
You know, globalization, for example, was a very big victory for the US consumer.
De-globalization is very dumb.
And you can argue that, well, for, you know, some industries like defense, etc.,
it makes sense to not have reliance.
That's something that's like tied to national security.
I agree with that.
But the way that he acts has been the downfall of this administration.
It's the no plan to deal with what will come as a consequence of those actions.
He just acts.
Like if you want to start that tariff war with China last year,
maybe it should have been a stepwise function and not just cut all ties immediately.
And that's why he had to walk
back a lot of those tariffs and he had to de-escalate because he realized that while he set
something in motion it just was executed horribly and i think that this iran oil situation is the
same concept it's like as much as you want to make progress you had to have made it in a slower way
in a more uh sustainable way but
now the you know oil markets are definitely punishing him the and you're headed into a
midterm year i mean if if this is the situation as we get closer to midterm elections just assume
that republicans get absolutely cooked so for that reason i think there's incentive for him to
kind of de-escalate this eventually and hopefully imminently.
So it's hard for me to get overly embarrassed.
Here's the problem with that.
He can de-escalate.
Like last night, he said the war is over.
We won.
But unless Iran backs down – you need to, right?
Both sides need to want to do it.
Iran right now is showing no signs.
This is what they want.
This is the type of war they can fight.
They can't fight us head on.
The problem is how do you get out of this if they refuse that's the problem i mean i'm in
agreement with you i don't know how he's gonna walk this back but he'll he'll probably end up
losing he'll end up giving more um than he wants to it'll definitely be objectively a win for iran
from here whatever he has to give up. But he'll find a way to
get a small win out of it and just like, pretend that you know, he claimed this great victory
for America. Like think about like, you know, we screw ourselves with so many of our trading
partners last year. But then you know, we were taxing Swiss things at like 15% or something like he'll get some BS.
I got a call there. So hopefully you can.
Yeah, so not a great backdrop. You need him to deescalate. I think the thing about Trump is all he cares about is interest rates. All he cares about is he needs
interest rates down the 10 year down for housing affordability. That's a big topic for the midterm
election. He needs rates down so that he can he needs a Fed to cut rates so that he can kind of
refi a lot of the US debt. He knows that he's in kind of an impossible bind here so he needs to wiggle out
of it um so that's why i feel like he's not the type of person to just completely destroy the
economy that doesn't mean that he won't like he's shown his hand before he's shown his hand with the
tariff stuff and to be frank you know the s&p dropped way more than you know five or six percent that
it is down now so you know there could be more pain ahead before he cries uncle but he will
eventually cry uncle i think i don't think he's going to drag this out not the way oil is acting
and so i want to believe that there's an off ramp, but speculating when that's going to happen,
that's the tough part. And in the meantime, until he does deescalate, you can continue to bleed out
in equities. And I've just kind of come to accept it. I've said, okay, well, I don't really want to.
I mean, I think some people, if you want to be a lot more active right now, you can just be sitting in a lot more cash.
That's totally fair.
I think you could just cut out 50% of your portfolio sitting cash,
reduce the volatility, wait for it to de-escalate,
and then add back that exposure.
I think a lot of people are already doing that.
I think that degrossing is probably a reasonable approach here.
Taking one month out SPY or QQQ puts is not going to,
I feel like it's not necessarily the move because it, you know,
VIX is extremely elevated.
One month put SKUs are very, very high.
And then, you know, you already have the NAIM number, the exposure coming down from like
the 90, 100% to down to like 66% now. Just know that around the tariff tantrum lows, we got down
to like 30 or 40%. So again, degrossing can continue, market is in a downtrend. So near term,
I would expect more downside, I would expect more volatility.
But for me, I'm just looking at this as likely an opportunity for what comes after. And if you think
about buying some stocks last year, before the tariff tantrum, by the end of the year, even if
you ended up in a drawdown through the tariff tantrum, those the end of the year, even if you ended up in a drawdown
through the tariff tantrum, those stocks, a lot of them ended up going much higher than their February highs.
So I'm focused on individual names.
I'm focusing on higher conviction names.
I'm getting rid of anything that just doesn't speak to me.
Like it's not something I want to hold through this volatile market, but I want to continue to hold many stocks.
And so, you know, just picking my spots.
Again, I'm probably sitting around 9% cash.
In my view, I think that's too low.
I should probably be around 30%.
So maybe I'll do an indiscriminate trim at some point,
get that overall exposure down a little bit more
while we wait this out.
I mean, I've been kind of managing the exposure
day-to-day, week-to-week, but this is just exhausting.
So I think your time is much better spent
doing other things and being productive,
like watching this tape.
I'm sure there's some people who are,
I see the accounts on here who are like,
taking these crazy trades to trade this day to day volatility.
If that's your style, 100% makes sense.
I think for some people, this is like paradise.
For other people like myself, swing traders, people who need multiple weeks, months, trends, etc.
It's not very productive environment.
I'm not going to overnight change my entire style to become a day trader. It's just very productive environment. I'm not going to overnight trade change my entire style
to become a day trader. It's just not going to be me. And yeah, if you're, you know, long term
buy and hold investor, you these volatility is the price you pay for, you know, exceptional
returns over the long run. So that about covers it
talking no i'm talking yo do you hear me mic check yeah i can hear you i think we may have lost emin
yeah no evan's having some connection issues it seems like um but you know i'm going to segue
over towards earnings um because we do have a couple of interesting ones coming out after close
but the main one that everybody's interested to hear about and everybody sees um is going to be adobe um adobe is looking at a $15.90 implied move for 5.88 which compared
towards the previous quarter it was much higher um it was $20.29 implied move previous quarter
um when we take a look over at adobe though uh when we take a look over at the next name that
is interested in many people might be interested in logical i know you've talked about this name as well
uh i'm not sure if you're there uh but yeah um sentinel one um sentinel one's reporting earnings
today after close they're looking at a one dollar 32 cent move or a 9.49 percent um that's going to
be another interesting name to watch and then the third one that i would say the third most
anticipated earnings of today is going to be ulta Beauty. Ulta Beauty, staple Warren Buffett name, $38.77 or 6.15%.
Compared towards the previous quarter, we were looking at 32.55,
significantly higher coming into this report than the previous one. But that's the overall
implied moves that we're looking at today.
Evan, do we got you back?
I guess we're going to be going through this one.
Space is being annoying.
I appreciate you for speaking through that logical.
Thank you to Mr. StockSniper
for running through those earnings as well.
Market will be closed in about 15 minutes
or so and uh we're gonna have some live earnings to uh to cover for all of you when i look at what
time to expect the earnings adobe should be out around 4 0 5 p.m eastern sentinel 1 4 15 ulta
beauty 405 and rubric is another one that i think a couple will be watching it's 4 0 1 p.m eastern
Rubric is another one that I think a couple will be watching.
It's 4.01 p.m. Eastern.
Logical, are you watching any of those earnings?
No, I don't really care for them.
Yeah.
Sentinel one maybe would have been one, I would have thought.
Also Rubric.
Rubric, yeah.
Sorry, I didn't realize they were reporting today.
Rubric will be interesting.
I think they're a good company, so that'll be good.
Sentinel one just, I don't't know somewhat of a disappointing stock so i've just kind of stopped following it and you know i i'm a valuation guy so i always i'm like
why is this stock so damn cheap and then it always gets cheaper so i just figure maybe
I'm not grasping something here, so I'd rather not bother.
i'm not grasping something here so i'd rather not bother
What is being expected?
Rubric, ticker RBRK.
I'm looking.
My earnings tab says 4.01 p.m. Eastern.
What time we should be expecting those numbers to come out?
Do you have any expectations for RBRK?
For Rubric, give me just one second.
Trying to find it.
It's a little lower on my calendar.
For RBRK.
Oh, my God.
We're glitching out.
Just one second.
I'm sorry.
All good. all good.
Maybe I'll throw it over to Sam, and we'll come back to you after we can talk into it.
Mr. Sam, solid.
It's not even the name anymore, but it's still going to stick, unfortunately, for better or for worse.
It still works.
It still works.
He'll answer to it.
You got any thoughts on rubrics?
I feel like it's one I've heard you talk about a little bit.
And then just in general, what's your seeing in this market? I feel like it's one I've heard you talk about a little bit and then just in general,
what's, what you're seeing in this market, what's going on in your world.
I mean, there's a couple of earnings, Adobe Sentinel one, Ulta, et cetera, obviously hosting
the followed report.
Uh, didn't go live today.
We'll be going live tomorrow.
So I'd also be curious what you would have talked about today.
Oh, um, wait, hello.
Can you hear me?
Yep.
I gotcha.
I heard the, did you just click a button or something?
No, because I think I thought I lost an interconnection to my laptop.
Um, yeah, the interconnection is kind of choppy here.
So anyways, Rubik1 is the one I'm looking at for sure.
I gotta be honest, seeing the way that IDV has been performing,
I mean, it could have whatever earnings it has,
and they already did pre-announce earlier last month.
So I'm not really
sure what to expect as a surprise here. I would say that given the weakness in the market right
now, they'd have to like really surprise the upside. I mean, still, you know, the multiple
isn't too demanding for the current state of valuations for software stocks. Like it's trading
around seven times. EVNTM sales, they're projected to be about, I believe,
$2 billion in revenue next year, I believe,
because they're about 1.4, 1.5.
So they're definitely accelerating.
They're definitely expanding free cash flow.
You're good.
I was trying to talk a lot.
Oh, sorry.
I am unmuted.
Jeez.
Keep going.
Oh, man.
Oh, shoot.
I'm just kidding around.
It's all good, dude. I was actually going to tell him.
Stipe was in the room with me, and I was going to tell him I tried to talk a lot so that I can give him time so that he could get the thing before, but it didn't work.
So, and I just look like a dick here interrupting you.
You're awesome, Sam.
It's all right.
It's all right.
Oh, I think, yeah, a little bit of swearing there, but it's all good.
But as far as… Family-friendly show. Family-friendly swearing there, but it's all good. But as far as...
Family-friendly show.
Family-friendly show.
Yeah, seriously, family-friendly.
As far as the earnings go for Rubrik,
again, like with a lot of software stocks out there,
I don't think it really matters what they're going to report at this point.
I mean, we already have the fundamentals in place here,
but the market has kind of, at least for now,
made the decision as far as software stocks like
if software bounces tomorrow then rubric is going to be up tomorrow um maybe they might surprise with
some crazy news but i think that pre-release and earnings might tell a bit of a story that whatever
that they want to surprise the upside has already happened and i'm not saying that whatever news is
going to have is going to be bad but i'm just saying that the expectations are already baked in
um if anything it might just be a non-event for Rubrik. Of course, you know, they can come in
and surprise. Like, I'm not really coming in here being like, oh, Rubik's going to be up like 20%
tomorrow. Like, I don't know if that in this environment, if that's going to happen. In fact,
on the stock itself, when they did report their earnings, did the pre-release in their earnings,
they did have some news today. I believe they did have a hack, right?
Sorry, I didn't really look too much at the news today for Brubrick because I was looking
more at the macro stuff.
But I believe they just had a hack that was announced today and that's the reason it
went down about 5% on the day.
So it's possible given just a minute of a little manipulative price action we've seen lately
with a lot of these software stocks, especially.
I mean, this isn't even,
this is like a $10 billion market cap.
So it could be prone to a lot of manipulation.
I mean, if they report earnings that they're good,
it's possible they might just recover
whatever they lost today or anything like that.
But that being so, they're at the 20 day moving average.
As far as the daily goes, they are gonna to be closing or if they stay around here they're gonna be closing
below the 9 and 21 uh reclaiming that bearish trend they did reject the 9 ema the weekly um so
the charge is it's not looking good but neither is a chart for a lot of software stocks so it's
just moving with the whole sector uh I'm expecting to come around i think 35 revenue growth uh but i am expecting uh cloud aar or specifically subscription aar to come in
around 30 35 to 40 percent executing as usual uh they are free cash repositive and they are
expanding margins as opposed to set in one which has been talked about a lot and there's a reason
why that one's cheap in my opinion um there every single time there's rumors that it's going to get acquired that pop always gets sold
off over and over again i do think a lot of these software stocks not rubric though but a lot of
these other software stocks like gitlab set in a one are likely going to be uh targets for uh
privatization or acquisition um likely the latter, given the valuation
and given the fact
that a lot of these other competitors
already do have
a lot of the products
already on their platform.
It's possible that maybe GitLab
has more favorable to be acquired,
but I would say
for SentinelOne,
they're probably going to be acquired
to possibly give them
a little bit of a premium
on the current valuation today. Again, you know, not rubric, they already have backing
from Microsoft and so on. So I don't think that that sort of thing's going to happen.
But really, I think the macro is telling the story on the market. Like people, if you look
at rubric, it's down 5% today. Like I wouldn't, they did have some bad news today. But given
the fact that the queues are down like almost two percent today you know that probably amplified that move to the downside like a lot of
these stocks are really moving with their sectors and as far as the market in general uh with some
with some other stocks over here that are actually quite outperforming today in my portfolio um idrm
is actually green today which is good it was actually very green earlier fastly was above 25 bucks giving some of that back oss one stop one one stop shop about two three percent today uh
leu centrist energy they had a partnership with palantir announced this morning they're actually
hitting some interesting inflection points on the charts too so it is nice to see a little bit of
recovery there but again you know the energy trade still stands today and you're seeing a lot of
profit taking on the optics trade which has been very strong lately um but again the the optics stocks
are extremely volatile up and down so i'm i'm not surprised to see this kind of price action you're
getting like 10 20 moves to the upside to have like a 16 move to the downside of aoi like that's
totally expected but it sucks because a lot of people have been chasing this stuff you know in this kind of market it's i don't think this is a great market for swing
trading at all and nebius had really good news yesterday as far as the two billion dollar
investment from nvidia but you guys got to remember they're going to dilute all right so if you thought
six billion dollars for iran was a lot would not be surprised if nebius pulls off something like
that and you have to if you're in these stocks,
you have to expect that to happen.
Especially when you have a lot of mega caps
issuing debt to fund their capex.
These neoclouds and Bitcoin miners,
they will do the same.
And I know that owning this stock.
So that's why I wouldn't be surprised to see it.
And if it drops 15% and gives up all its gains today
because it's at the top right in the range,
well then so be it, right? Like I'll look to add more when it goes lower but like over here i'm
not adding the nebius like that's you don't add after news like that you wait to see when things
will lack when price comes down or when it gets to your levels you want to add but other than that i
mean you know hands uh just just chilling right now at the. I threw out some hedges on today, a few percentage points of position. Not really too crazy. I mean, the contracts, I got the QQQ puts,
they expire in later in May. So I do have time to get out of it if you do reclaim some
moving averages on the Qs. But other than that, you know, not really trying to make
any crazy swings here. I mean, the market is just super volatile and wouldn't be surprised if we get a little
bit of a bounce tomorrow, but you know, we, we, we are trending down on the cues.
We're making lower highs and lower lows.
So don't try to, don't try to swing anything to the fences thinking you're going to make
it big and say like, this is the bottom.
Cause you could have said this is the bottom for months and it absolutely was not the bottom.
So I would just say be careful out there and headlines after headline to headline,
like, you know, the price action is kind of telling you something, the narrative is going to follow that.
So yeah, that's about it.
Adobe, you know, that's going to move with software.
I would be very surprised if Adobe comes in and surprises the market with something to the upside because I feel like they've been executing just fine, but the market doesn't care because they're
just selling off software. So, you know, you can say that I'm not too optimistic, but look,
this is what the price actually presented to me. I don't see like massive opportunity,
us in a massive bull train over here where everything is ripping to the upside, all dips
are getting bought
because we're clearly not seeing that today.
So I would just hold off and wait
and see where the market takes you
and then act after that.
Have some hedges on if you want to,
but I got a pretty high beta portfolio.
So I think I do need those hedges on
since I don't want to be like trading left and right.
Yeah, that's about it.
Thank you for that rundown mr. Sam I want you to know in the background here I had mr. stock sniper go to me you know stands really smart guy he's making a lot of
really great points there so uh it was enjoyed I thought do you have the rubric numbers in front
of you now I do and uh for the record I did actually say that word for word. But yeah, my implied move that I'm
seeing for rubric earnings is going to be $6.94 or 12.72%. Compared towards the previous report,
we were seeing only $8.01 implied move, but yet that came in at 11.38%. So definitely some changes
and a completely different setup for rubric as we were seeing three months ago.
But it'll be pretty interesting to watch. Look for a $6.94 implied move.
All right. And we should expect those numbers to come out pretty much right after the close.
No earnings tomorrow. We do have PCE and GDP coming out tomorrow morning, so be on the
lookout for that. But yeah, it should be an interesting one. Sam, is there one of these
names specifically? I know you were going through a couple of them a little more. Is there one
that you're more focused on? Do you own any of these?
My bad. We'll run the next person. Sorry about that.
Nope. No worries. No worries at all. You gave us a great run through there, sir.
Shout out to the squad, by the way. You should make sure you are following all of the speakers.
They're doing a lot of research, running a lot of accounts, and also have full-time tech software jobs.
We don't need to go too deep into what they're doing, but these guys are very high achievers across the board, smart people, and we appreciate them for joining in.
I really love getting to hear the, now a lot of it does go over my head, but I,
I do know talking with other people and, um, you know, the actual.
Industry insights that we're able to get from logical and STEM and then a lot
of the other people that we have on the panels as well as it really awesome.
So you should check them out.
Give them a follow.
We talk stocks here a lot, but there's also just a lot of industry knowledge that
gets brought onto these spaces and is always a good conversation.
So yeah, no worries there.
I appreciate you.
Logical.
Are you going to actually, I know I like twist an arm a little bit to get an
answer that you're interested in these earnings rubric.
What are you going to be looking at for on that one i don't even really know what rubric fully does
to be fully honest um they they do like cyber security um it's more of a sam name to be honest
he's been on it early uh the issue with rubric is if the entire software complex is re-rating lower on a multiple basis valuation wise.
It's like gotten a lot cheaper. But again, I think it comes to what Sam was saying, which is like,
it's basically going to trade in line with software. If software can get going, then
Rubrik is cheap. If the market starts calling BS on some of the software is dead situation. But
other than that, look, they're putting up great results
if this was the market of six months ago i think it would you know be a great long from here
problem is not and so the backdrop's a little too overwhelming not just in the broad market but also
in software and it's not a cheap stock by any means like it was relatively a good valuation a few months ago. That's before software decided to implode.
We're just kind of resetting the bar for what's considered cheap.
And so it doesn't really have a ton of valuation support on an absolute basis.
So we'll just have to see kind of how the market rewards them.
I got to hop to a meeting guys, but I'll chat later.
I'll try to hop in later. is everyone talking
i'm muted on the wrong account now so my uh on my phone it's not working anymore and i was just
talking there nice to take now shout out to stock sniper I appreciate him for hanging out with me here in Miami in Florida I've gotten to meet Sam solid in person I think once it wasn't
a good time it was at the Nasdaq which was the yeah on time we got to go into
stuff but hopefully I get to see ya in person sometime soon you know well we'll
see there.
There are a couple of stuff coming up here.
Maybe I can convince them.
I tried to get,
so don't tell anyone else this and I'm going to deny it,
but actually I won't say,
I'll say it in a different way,
but I tried to get Sam to,
to the NVIDIA event next week.
I have another event,
which I was invited to.
I tried to maybe do some stuff,
but Sam's a busy
guy he's living the life and uh i do appreciate you for hanging out i got two kids exactly i get
it like oh yeah i wish i could just like go to all these events and stuff but oh man you know
sometimes and i think a lot of the daddies out there, not daddies, my bad, wrong word to use.
Sometimes a lot of the dads out there, they know what I'm saying, but you don't really get an option when you want to go to all these events.
You kind of got to get a little bit of approval from the chief executive and chairman of the house.
But yeah, that would have been cool to go to GTDC, dude. And also to Future Proof as well.
But Future Proof is going to be here in LA in September.
But more importantly also, the Wolf event is happening in August, right?
Yeah, yeah.
So we have the formal announcement coming up pretty soon.
I don't want to spoil too much on it.
But yeah, August 3rd in person, New
York City. Get excited, get excited. We are planning it out now and we got quite the crew
that is going to be there, but we did get the market closed. Market is done for the
day. A couple of these earnings should be coming out here any second. Like I said, 401,
405. I don't know
Rupert's larger than a 10 billion dollar market cap so I think it should go up in this area maybe not
yeah so everyone knows if you guys are regular in the space and when earnings come out kind of
breaks down the space a little bit and then we'll fun we'll funnel through that and then uh we'll start to shift the conversations afterwards sam you're able to chill with me in
the next little bit yeah i'll hang out here um it's it's actually uh it's my daughter's birthday
today which is cool happy birthday all right so please leave no i i was gonna say i wouldn't be
on here but like she's we're at like one of those kids playgrounds right now those indoor ones so she's like having a blast right now so
uh you guys are actually entertaining me right now not the other way around
there we go there we go all right i gotta say uh i'm a sucker for like uh the trampoline parks
are a good time unless i just when it's targeted towards kids that's not gonna be a good time for
me but there's no oh it was all for kids dude david buster is a great time no one can prove to me otherwise
david buster's is cool i do like it but it's so expensive man like good luck going there with a
kid and not spending more than 40 like you're you're just if you want to spend like at least
two hours there at dav & Buster's,
you're easily dropping at least $50.
And that's not including food.
You threw food in there, it's over $100 just for an event with your kids at Dave & Buster's.
I mean, it's fine once in a while.
What do you think Dave & Buster's stock has performed over the last one year?
You know what?
The Dow is not at $50K, so I don't think I need to thank them anymore, right?
I mean, if Dow was still at $50K, busters how do you think david buster's stock has performed oh what
let me get it oh the stock itself i thought you thought i thought you were saying thank
david busters like period uh okay like in the court when she was like you kidding me the dows
at like 50k or something like oh yeah yeah it's not 50k anymore i get what you're saying my bad my bad but a little not that great of a joke but i try i try
just trying to kill some time here before we get those earnings that come out picker play though
how do you think it's performed over the last year play-doh no david the play play i don't know what
how is it performing i well how do i think i i would think it's probably up. I mean, it's been on a crazy rampage for a while.
Oh, my God.
This is an ugly stock, dude.
It is down 70% over the last five years, Dave & Busters.
It was going in a range.
It just got destroyed.
Last year is down 31%.
Oh, wow.
The one year didn't look so bad.
I scrolled to the five year, and that was pretty freaking ugly.
That's crazy. Yeah, a lot of these stocks got wow that's that's because i do remember hearing about
it last july and then wow they got decimated they actually closed at 52 week lows today didn't they
today didn't they that's crazy during cove it i actually put in a buy order for uh david busters
that's four dollars and fifty cents and it got down to like four dollars and sixty cents or
something like that i'm bummer but it was i was so close to bottom taking it but i got a little
too greedy um yeah that march was the absolute bottom for that stock and i think that i think it's because like
that's what people thought right and then they came back i think it was them and like a lot of
the uh six flags a lot of those stocks they came back but okay so we are getting we're getting some
of the data out now rubric ulta beauty and adobe all just reported i'll get you the numbers in a
second robin had also just put out their monthly metrics for february adobe earnings yeah
6.39 billion versus 6.28 billion expected eps six dollars and six cents versus five dollars and 87
cents expecting rubric initial move is down two percent rubric 377.68 million versus 342.37 million
expected eps four cents expected minus 11 cents wow that's a big beat in the top line. Initial move for Rubrik is up 7%.
Ulta?
That's crazy.
Wow.
$3.89 billion.
Axial revenue for Ulta Beauty?
Expected $3.82.
EPS, $8.01.
Expected EPS, $8.04.
And Ulta Beauty stock is down 4%, 5% initial move.
So I'm going to try to cycle into a little bit more of these numbers.
Adobe and it's moved down.
What about Sentinel 1?
I think that might have actually been a 415 guy.
Rubric initial move up.
Then Ulta, then down.
I think I can find this robin hood as well robin
in the restoration what you're saying sam rubric is basically taking back part of the losses it
had today exactly what i thought it would do but we'll see what happens i mean these these things
are crazy movers after oh service titan report i didn't even know service titan was reporting today
uh service titan254 million.
Beat expectations of $245 million.
Grew 22% year over year.
EPS, 27 cents.
Beat expectations of 18 cents.
It's Service Titan.
The ITN?
What's the ticker?
TTAN.
TTAN no TTAN
they just IPO'd
later like mid last year
there is a company that is
TITN but I've never heard of this
Titan machinery
oh wow
PagerDuty reported earnings today
interesting I didn't see that
124.8 million
beat expectations 123 million um eps 29 cents versus 25 cents
yeah did your duty down 12 percent to be honest i am not bullish pay with you paid you like they're
like they're gonna you're gonna get acquired or like they're open for disruption easily
gonna you're gonna get acquired or like they're open for disruption easily
so adobe stuff though is holding in there it's basically that moves i know implied volatility
implied options move on adobe was like seven eight percent doesn't seem like the initial move
there is going to get you to seven eight percent
the dope times the don't reporting it's out what is it yeah yeah yeah yeah it's down 3% Adobe EPS was EPS was as night that was
saying I see six dollars and six cents in position to 587 maybe this is a
different number that I'm seeing in another place for next quarter Adobe
said it sees between five dollars and80 to $5.85.
Wall Street won at 5.68, so slightly above expectations.
Overguards for sales, also above expectations for next quarter.
When I look towards their guidance for the full year it was
reaffirmed it seems like analysts wanted to wanted it to be a little bit higher adobe numbers don't
look so bad here i mean this thing could make a wide move so i wouldn't even surprise on the move
this doesn't especially if i look left on
adobe my guess is it's been struggling yeah i don't know i'm a little surprised it's down five
percent honestly this is definitely more fear-based than anything
like i can't believe like i bought adobe at 330 then I sold it at $308 when it broke some moving averages.
I can't believe it's down here at $2.154. That's crazy.
It's all fear. It is all fear. It is not showing up in their numbers.
Rubric said for the fiscal year, they expect their EPS between $0.07 to $0.27.
So $0.17 midpoint while she wants 7 cents.
That's also, that's above.
There are also revenue guidance
is also above expectations for RBRK for the year.
Nice.
Yeah, let's take decent numbers from a rubric.
They'll be continuing this move lower.
You getting hit?
Damn.
Again, I don't think the numbers looks too bad.
So I'm a little surprised by the move now it's
on 6.7 we can just do a tick by tick uh a little thing here at some point but but that is a
struggle adb adbe stock is uh is moving lower off of their earnings oh ceo of adobe stepping down
the ceo of adobe is stepping down okay that makes more sense yeah that's why
it would be down interesting okay let me let me get this in front of me and he's not the founder
right i i doubt it they've been left a long time no not the founder is he moving up the chair or
anything or he just literally he's just stepping down? That's it.
Adobe CEO announced his transition.
I'm not going to try and say his name.
Who has served as CEO of Adobe for 18 years.
Has decided to transition from his position as CEO.
After a successor has been appointed.
Narayan will remain as the chairman of the board. He will remain as the chairman of the board.
The board of directors has been appointed.
Frank Calderoni,
lead independent director of Adobe,
as chair to the special committee.
Yeah, so he's just stepping back.
That's all he's doing.
He's basically retiring.
Yeah, it sounds like it's a little bit more of a retirement than anything else.
You never know.
You might hear tomorrow of what companies he's going to adobe
ceo is stepping down
thank you for finding out sam that makes a little bit more sense on the move like i just didn't
just didn't make sense like why the stock was so much. I also don't understand why you look less on the stock and it's down a bunch.
I know it's maybe not fair to him because Adobe has turned into a juggernaut under the 18 years that he's been there.
But, you know, it's been a little tough couple days here.
A couple weeks, a couple months in the Adobe stock, especially just given the stock price.
So, I don't know.
It's like you're you're
digging him on the upside you're digging him on the downside it feels like a little bit of
a lose lose but adobe ceo stepping down let me get that posted that's a massive b for rubric
rubric that's crazy good numbers already guys are also about expectations yeah wow for the record
that's crazy good numbers already guys are still about expectations
everyone if you guys are not following sam solid sandbad sam badawi you are completely missing out
he's a fantastic addition to the spaces really great timeline smart guy he also is a host of
the solid report on that wolf financial accounts you guys guys go and see that also live on wolf and
sam badali youtube pages awesome guy great follow you should definitely go and check out the youtube
live streams that he is doing no matter what account you're watching on it is 10 out of 10
amazing content we got our friend will joining us up here will is active on the
which we are live all day every day what is up will that's good how's everybody doing new father too appreciate you doing this might
oh well new father no no i think that might be a different william my bad
you're good uh but yeah mr will active trader how are we feeling today is this your first time on stocks
and spaces uh i was i think i came out with ryan last week for a quick time but usually it's uh
you know we're on the stream so i just thought i saw you guys i'm like i'll jump over there
because i was not at my desk all day i was a little busy so i just came back to the desk
right at the close here just to check some stuff out but it was another interesting day i
think the big theme right now is you got two big problems and that's interest rates going marginally
higher and oil running along with it and yields everywhere are going higher i was doing the uk
show eva this morning and we were talking about you look at like the UK 10-year yields basically back almost at highs of the year into last year's highs.
And same with Germany.
Those yields have skyrocketed off like 50 basis points in like a week and a half here.
And then you look at the US, that 10-year closing up at over 425 um i don't see
unless you get any relief on the rate side and you get some relief in oil um i don't think there's
any chance in hell that the market gets a bounce until one of those two things happens
yeah no that does make sense and obviously all the geopolitical stuff going on who knows
when slash well when not if one more thing you look at um banks today were weak but blackstone
made a new low in the private equity space morgan stanley talked about limiting redemptions and one
of their funds um blue owl made another new low uh what's the other kkr all the well i didn't i didn't have
the i don't know what the word i'm looking for is but one of my friends came to me a couple months
ago i was like i just bought this new stock blue owl i was like i'm not that interested in it but
i hope it goes well for you and boy has it not so far i mean it's down since the beginning of the year i think almost down uh
50 since the year started and if you look since uh you know middle of middle of 25 it was trading
around 20 and it's down almost 65 so dude i don't know that space is a little scary i was looking
into blue owl because not because i was at all interested but i saw someone in discord say like
oh blue out looks interesting because they pay a pretty high dividend now and it's like another
one of those traps because if you yeah your your friend evan is probably like a dividend investor
or something right so it's come like become like super attracted to them you know and this is like
the same story we saw when dividend stocks got decimated before which it makes sense for certain companies but there's a lot to involve in this company especially when they're uh when their
payout ratio is above a hundred percent above a hundred percent for their payout ratio for their
dividend they're going to cut their dividend and when they do they're going to go down even lower
yeah they're going to go down even lower if that happens this is the same situation that with
disney even though that's not like such a massive dividend paying stock now i agree with you little man i i see rates going up i see
oil going up which is something you don't see every day when it spikes up that fast um i see
credit spreads widening uh it's it's above where it was in november which isn't good either um the sentiment in the stock
market is is bearish right now even the positioning is bearish which some people think like that marks
the bottom and it probably it doesn't it doesn't mean oversold or yeah a lot longer than you can
stay solvent so just because something's oversold or sentiment's bad, you could have sentiment bad for six months.
And I think that's a fallacy in the years that I've been trading.
It's like sentiment can be really bad for a long time.
And it doesn't mean that there's a bottom in there.
Price action will give you the determination whether there is a bottom or not.
You start to see bullish price action at the bottom.
You get some big wigs.
You get some constructive situations.
But right now, the only thing that's going to calm us down is some headlines on de-escalation on the war front it's going to
bring yields off going to bring oil off but i said this i was saying this this morning is even if we
have a rally out of the the whole let's say we go down and touch the 200 on spx uh on on um which
is right around 6600 the the stuff in the private equity space, the wider credit spreads,
the negative jobs number, the weak retail sales, outside of the AI earnings that were relatively
good, especially with NVIDIA, like, until I see some better data, I mean, some of the ISM data
was decent in the first quarter so far, the retail sales number not so good um i looked
at the there was a bank of america report they talked about only i think 10 of the increased tax
refunds were going to be spent in the economy and then actually the aggregate number uh dollar amount
of refunds is actually um not up much from from last year so the big retail push that they're
saying we're going to get from
tax funds, I don't know that it's going to materialize at the level that they think.
And if March retail sales aren't very robust, I think that starts to put the economy on a bit
more flat footing. And you say, okay, where are we and where are we going? And until we get some
more catalysts on the war front, either
calming down, I just think like I've been saying this, Evan will tell you, everybody else, I've
been saying for the past two months, you want to be selling rallies in the market. We're in a
downtrend. You want to sell, I mean, on a shorter timeframe, obviously the long-term, you know,
go to monthly chart, et cetera. We're still in a bullish uptrend, of course, but in the short term, you're below the 50, you're below the moving
averages. Price action is telling you to sell rallies because you can't get through, you know,
that 6,800 level is huge. And we just rejected off of it again today. So until then, I think
you need to be nimble, sit on hand, sit in cash, wait, or look for stuff to short. But I would be selling rallies if we stay under the 50-day
and these moving averages keep falling.
I think that's where you got to be for the time being.
How do you react here, Will?
Because I know you're – wait, Sam, is your hand up
or am I looking in the wrong place?
Might have been an old one.
You're a little bit more of an active trader in there, Will. I'm curious what the last couple weeks have been an old one you're you're a little bit more of an active trader in there will um i'm
curious what the last couple weeks have been for you the common theme in the market isn't
necessarily the best market for traders up here a lot of people have been living life going for a
hike some people have been sizing down other different strategies what is the last couple
weeks uh looked like for you i mean for me like you know i've i've i traded to the short side
i've been selling calls and call spreads and i've had put protection on i did clear out um a lot of
my puts uh that were a little bit longer dated well i should say i put them on at the beginning
of the year and they were dated out to the end of the quarter and i did monetize some of those
and we had the vic spike up to 36 and we did test the
200 day in the overnight session on Sunday on the S&P. So I did take some of that put protection off.
I'm lightly short some some futures from yesterday. Yesterday's kind of high area around
that 6800. So I'm lightly short in that area and I'm just going to wait for lower but I mean with a high
VIX environment I've been doing just on as far as day trades and active trading like the last few
days I've been putting on you know iron condors and and some spreads call spreads and SPX just
to pick up some premium because you can get pretty far out of the money when the VIX is high
and you know like yesterday was a great day we didn't really go much. And I kind of waited until we settled in. I didn't put my
spread on until later in the day. So probably about noon until I could see where the market
was kind of looking for some, you know, a little bit of stability where I could pick some prices
we would stay within. So again, I think if you're an options trader and you're in this environment, this is great because you want high volatility when you're trading options because you can get farther out of the money.
We go from mid-20s or 30s to 70 or something like that.
Outside of that move, if you're in a VIX environment that's between 25 and 35, it is a great time to be selling premium in options.
And on top of that, it's actually slightly less risky than normal because you're shorting, obviously, your short volatility.
shorting, obviously a short volatility. And if you're selling puts in this environment,
the best thing about selling puts in a high volatility environment in names that you like,
whether it's single stock names or whatever it is, is that if VIX doesn't go materially higher
from this area, when you are short puts or short put spreads, you have three things working in
your favor. The first thing is you
have time because you're obviously collecting theta, which is your time decay in the option.
The second thing is your short volatility. And if VIX starts to come in, you make money on your
options that way on selling put spreads. And then the third one is you have a positive drift and
positive delta. And because you have that positive drift and positive delta.
And because you have that in the market, those things working in concert, as soon as you get any bounce on the market, like days just when you bounce, those spreads come in dramatically where you might sell a put spread that is, you know, 30 days away.
And in three or four days, if you get a little bounce in the market, those things can come in and be up 30, 40 percent profit in a very short period of time.
So it allows you to get far out of the money. And I would say define your risk with spreads
if you're new to options. And I think it's a great environment to be trading stuff like that.
Yeah, that makes sense, Will. Thank you for coming and hanging out with us here, sir.
Always a great addition to the Wolf Trading Sp trading spaces if you guys are traders and you want
all day content you want a crew that you can hang out with wolf trading we got people like will
people like ryan spaces live stream it's freaking awesome i am a big fan of the wolf trading crew
now i am biased but i am a fan yeah no doubt there's but listen i there are so many great
different perspectives that you can get there and the more the more that i talk to it just makes us
all better like if you're going to trade and you're going to be involved find the right community for
you because there's strength trading by yourself is probably the worst thing you can do.
You want to trade with a community of people
that have different perspectives
and look at stuff differently
because you have so many people out there
that are looking at different markets,
whether it's the credit markets or bonds
or the private equity space
or equities or trading options or futures.
I mean, there's so much stuff you can pick up on
that a lot of people aren't necessarily have the time trading options or futures. I mean, there's so much stuff you can pick up on that, that,
you know, a lot of people aren't, aren't necessarily have the time or, or the knowledge.
And it's a great, great place to be. And I think that's a, you're a newer trader and want to pick
up some great content, follow the crew, the Wolf trading crew and the live stream is going on
going on pretty much every day and i think that's a great place to be
pretty much every day. And I think that's a great place to be.
yeah it's a little fantastic addition yeah one other comment um you know it's interesting like
when you look at the mag names and uh i was just kind of going through because i like to look at
the the big stocks as we kind of um go through where we're at right now. Like Apple, you know, I was looking at Apple on this.
I had a trend line that I was drawing in here just technically
where Apple's starting to break down below this 255.
It's trying to hold on to 256.
If we do break down, I think Apple has a good shot of going to 243
if this falls apart here.
And it was obviously weaker today.
Microsoft, even after that bounce all the way up to you know 415 the last couple days that started to roll back over the key area for
google 296 has to hold should we take out 296 i would be looking probably your next stop is the
200 day which is at 255 and also a key support area horizontally as well in that area.
Meta.
That one takes out.
I'm just giving you downside levels.
I think you really got to hold above 627.
And I was just looking at Amazon and I just noticed this.
But after the big gap down, the way this four hour or daily chart looks, it kind of looks like a bear flag to me.
So I would watch Amazon, you know, sub like 207, 206 to see if this trend breaks.
And that could be a bear flag that opens you up to the downside back to retest that 196 area.
But Netflix pulled back a little bit.
AMD kind of bounced back above and got rejected at the 21 day. I just think there's a lot of these names that still don't look that healthy to the
upside. And the biggest one is the banks. When you look at like the XLF, I had a key trend line
down at like 49 in the XLF that broke today. And I'm really watching to see if we can get some strength in the banks going into the weekend.
I'd like to see that firm up and hold this 49 level.
I don't want to see it crack further tomorrow because that makes it very difficult for the broad market to go higher.
If one of your biggest sectors, which is financials, it's the second highest weighting in the S&P 500
is going against you. It's decisively below the 200. You're about to have the 50-day cross the
200-period moving average, and we're decisively below the nine period. So I think when you look
at the broad picture, it just doesn't look constructive on a bigger time frame to me. I'm starting to say even if we get a bounce that may be from lower levels,
but I would just be cautious on a V-shaped recovery like we saw last year in the April turmoil.
Obviously, if we do get some relief in the war or some de-escalation headlines,
you're 100% guaranteed to get a big pop.
It's going to be 2%, 3% off the bottom.
It's just whether or not the private equity situation materializes to get worse.
And do we have a jobs market that continues to drift to the downside?
Because if we do get another negative payroll number going into the April timeframe from March's numbers,
I think that would
start to set up the market for some disappointment and hopefully lower yields on the fact that the
jobs market may be weakening further and these banks and stuff, if there's going to be more of
an issue there. So I'd watch the private equity space, the banks, keep an eye on oil to see where
that's trading and then keep an eye on oil to see where that's trading and then keep
an eye on yields. I think that'll give you some direction on where the market's going. And we've
seen in the last few days, as oil's been able to come down, the market's rallied up, right?
We had that oil move overnight on Monday into Tuesday. We had a nice move up on Tuesday and
early yesterday back into resistance. And then obviously oil went back up overnight and yields are screaming higher.
And what do you have? You have a big equity sell off today.
I was saying that last time I'm watching these deals like, oh, like two years screaming higher, 30 years screaming higher.
Like it's going to put pressure on equity.
So I think those are the things you need to keep on your charts and kind of watch those.
Because if we get some headline and you start to see oil go
lower you can probably counter trade equities to the upside and vice versa if we see oil go
back above 100 i would say i'd be looking for more downside
let's hope we don't get that. Although I'm open for relief amounts for sure.
I know it's been a weird market for the traders too,
because we're not getting downside the thrust.
We're not really getting upside of just chop.
I mean, I'm sure when your timeframes are intraday,
it can be good in there.
But for, I think, swing traders are maybe the ones that struggle.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So I think to your point, that's a great observation.
I've been kind of in that camp
that we keep seeing the lack of follow through on the downside. So markets started to, especially
technology, the Qs started to break down last month or whatever. We've been in this chop zone
between call it 610, 612 and 594, 595 in the Qs.
And every time we've gotten down to those levels, we bounce and we kind of rotate to the other end
of the balance range. And we've been kind of ping ponging back and forth. The difference is now,
I think with oil moving higher and interest rates moving decisively higher over the last four or
five sessions, that could start,
in my opinion, if they stay elevated and rates continue to push higher from here,
you start seeing the headline where the 30-year and the 10-year towards 4.5% and that 30-year
creeping towards 5%. I think that gets the attention in the market where you do finally
get some follow-through because you got tighter financial conditions and then you have oil which is also a sentiment issue and also a gross scare issue because of oil is too high for
too long it's going to start to take a bite out of the economy and out of the consumer
and that could have some negative implications so i think to your point that the ping-ponging
back and forth on why we haven't seen that is two reasons. One is what I just mentioned. And then the second one is this,
which is the, the dealers, the option dealers,
and the everybody's long volatility right now because of,
of OPEX next week.
So you got a lot of compression in volatility because everybody's long it.
So it's not, the market hasn't gone anywhere. So next week,
once the VIX options expire on Wednesday and you get that OPEX for VIX, and then on Friday,
you'll get quarterly OPEX and all those options roll off, it will give the market to move a little bit more freely.
And you'll start to see maybe some bigger moves in the market where we get out of this balance
range. And that could be the downside or the upside, depending on the news. But I do think
after OPEX next week, you'll start to see the market move a little bit more decisively and
we'll get out of these tighter ranges that we've been in for the latter you know three four weeks
yeah interesting uh i'm sure a lot of the traders will be happy about that one i want to see the
upside uh we shall see thank you for that rundown there will brian can i bring you into the
conversation absolutely are we doing sir uh but if there's anything you want to bounce off of there
before I ask you a question
if there's any thoughts on what Will was saying
I mean I'd love to try to come in
and like paint the other side of
the argument
this is kind of difficult to do after today's action
I mean
I don't know
you look around
other than some good news that
sends oil back down, it's pretty much the market that you're in right now is just a lot of fear.
And the longer it goes on, the worse people are going to, you know, the last people are going to
want to sit here and try to think that the market's going to hold in up here with, you know,
sit here and try to think that the market's going to hold in up here with you know 90 to 100 a barrel
oil um and it is true on the trading side it is trading i mean my approach today was
short cl and long nq as a pairs trade just and one would kind of move the other one would kind
of move and then you just cover some and get back out of it that's That's about all I really did today. And I look across and structure-wise,
the futures, NASDAQ and ES or S&P futures closed under the 200-day for the first time since
last spring. So that's not exciting. Okay, here's the problem. We do still have the 200-day moving
average on the S&P and the NASDAQ right below us.
Actually, really on everything, on all the major indices right below us.
So when I look at it that way, I say, okay, there's still like one last floor in the market down there today.
And you'll have some very just straightforward investors that say, hey, I'll buy the 200-day on the S&P anytime I see it.
So yeah, I guess that's the only other side to paint it. But today, you kind of had
indiscriminate selling. That was the one thing we've kind of talked about that we haven't really
seen yet. It was just like them just kind of selling everything. And today you saw every
sector just getting hit. Banks are down,
industrials are down, tech was down. You know, I guess SMH got absolutely crushed today. Obviously,
energy's up. That one's kind of its own story with oil right now. But gold commodities down
today as well. I mean, I guess you could say crypto held in if you want to count that as a
spot. But pretty much everything was getting hit today. And that's
where you're starting to see this, you know, the sustained prices up here in the oil market
are going to hit the entire economy. And so people are looking at that. So that's the main thing I
noticed. I wish I had some better takeaways, but the only other thing I would say, Evan,
to your point was you said it continues to be kind of in this range.
Like it's not really getting follow through. The NASDAQ is still within kind of this range
it's been in the last month or more. Yeah, just over a month now. But the other sectors have
started to roll over. So we really needed a follow through in tech and we didn't really get that.
And here we are right back. We're
probably going to visit this 200 day during, you know, during normal trading hours. And then we,
then we kind of find out from the bottom of the range of, if it holds in, do we get some kind of
conflict resolution or do we still have to just wait and wait and wait? And I think that's the
hardest thing to do as an investor and a trader is just continue to wait. I see Stock Talk
chilling down there as well. I'm curious what his take is. But today's action,
they didn't throw everything out because it wasn't just like a flash sell, like panic sell.
So you haven't seen that yet, but you did see pretty much everything getting sold today, which
was the first time I've really noticed that. I wasn't around yesterday, but it looked like we didn't do anything yesterday.
Anything my individual single stack portfolio performed today?
Well, it depends how much BM&R you're still sitting in.
Yeah.
Down 2.5% for anyone curious.
Yeah, Will?
Yeah, 2.5%.
That makes sense.
The biggest change from yesterday is just that the yields are just spiking across the board.
And now the oil's moved up 10% since yesterday.
And you got yields just racing higher.
It's a double negative for the market.
So what do you do with – until we see – if we all of a sudden see yields start going north of 490, I think I'm a 30 year.
That's going to get that's going to get everybody's attention, because now, once again, you got tighter financial conditions.
You're not going to get flight to quality. You got higher oil and you got private credit still making new lows so i think those three things like until like maybe there's
some good news in that space or good news in the banks or we get some type of resolution um on on
the iran war front then i don't i don't know how you don't lean to the short side um and and just
maybe it's like you're you know short some futures and maybe get
long some call spread just to hedge it in case you get some snapback um bigger rally but i think
the 200 day has got to probably it's tough to short down here though i know in the bottom of
the range like the s&p does not bad but then with the nasdaq down here it's bottom of the range
and your vix is so high i just feel like i I hate to say I do nothing, but it just feels like this is a very do nothing spot.
Why do you hate to say that?
Well, you know, I hate to say that because I feel like people want an answer stock talk.
But when I come back to it and I know you've kind of preached on this the last few weeks, it seems like the do nothing market is the hardest market to be in because
you're like human nature is to do stuff.
But this is the type of market where I don't think you do much of anything.
And I noticed you've been that way and you know,
we're conditioned as from kids on,
like you always have to be doing something.
And I feel like this is the time to just do very little.
Yeah. You don't need to do anything i don't think i mean all i've done in the last couple of weeks is reduce long options exposure on individual positions and that's about it i agree with the idea
of hedging down here being i don't know i mean you could do it in small size, but you're at the whim of a headline.
If Trump says, look, we're pulling our carrier strike groups out of the Gulf, I mean, the market's going to rip.
Rip, absolutely. So true.
Yeah, so you're going to get caught in a squeeze.
I mean, if you go full bias on positioning to the downside here, it just feels like bad risk reward.
Throwing on some hedges, if you have a net long book, I mean, sure, I don't think that there's anything wrong with that.
But I don't think you should.
I mean, I think that if you're somebody that's used to having durable exposure in the market one way or another,
hopefully on the long side, considering how the markets have
acted for five years. If you're somebody that's used to that, you don't have to do a whole lot.
I mean, if you have some lower eviction trades on the book that just aren't getting momentum and
aren't being able to get off the mat, then you can get rid of those, cut them. If you have some
newer positions that you picked up a week ago or a week and a half ago that you're back against the wall on cost basis, you can get rid of them.
If you're sitting on stuff that you like, that you've owned for a year, year and a half, I don't see any reason to sell that stuff.
I think it's pretty conditional. But for the most part, I think you sit on your hands here and wait for the conflict to resolve.
And I don't again, I'll reiterate this. I don't think the market cares about the war.
I mean, markets just don't care about war.
That's not what the markets are concerned about here.
They're concerned about the Strait of Hormuz.
And there's no viable alternative
for that oil to pass through at this time.
I don't know. I saw your meme.
The truck with the oil tanker.
Yeah, except for the meme.
But jokes aside, I mean, there's just no viable alternative for anywhere from 18% to 23% of the global oil supply passes through that straight.
And I saw some people yesterday on Twitter saying like, well, it's not all the oil.
That's just a silly take.
It doesn't matter.
It doesn't need to be 100% of the world.
I mean, if 100% of the world's oil supply was compromised, we'd be talking about a lot more than a couple percent on the S&P 500.
The reality is that 20% of the world's oil supply being compromised is a big enough deal for the
markets to be upset about it. I said this two weeks ago. I'll say this again. This is the first
market chop slash market sell in two to three years that has a real reason outside of narrative, like a real reason.
And like I'm the first guy on all these spaces for the last.
I mean, we've been doing these spaces for now, what, two or three years.
I'm the first guy to always bash the bears when they're fear mongering about narrative driven stuff like the deep seek moment or the tariff fears or all that stuff,
like when it's narrative driven, it's silly to be selling stocks over it,
but this is not narrative driven.
This is a real thing that materialized and it has real consequences to the
oil market, real consequences to the economy.
Not to mention we're starting to see real cracks in the job market for the
first time in three years too, while all this is happening.
And inflation isn't going anywhere.
We just got an inline CPI print on top of that.
So if you want to take a bias on the direction of inflation, it would probably be to the
upside with oil disruptions going on.
Here's the other problem, too.
They just pulled all the rate cuts, no rate cuts until June of 27 at this point in the
Fed fund futures market.
So now you're having the term premium that's basically skyrocketing.
They're pulling all the rate cuts out of the market and no rate cuts for this year.
And now you're talking about rate cuts not till next June.
And then it's structurally longer until maybe you get your next cut, maybe two cuts in 27.
That's it. So now the market's
got to reprice where these interest rates are going to be over the next 12 months. And it's
structurally higher right now. And that has not been priced into the market. And what it looks
like from the oil curve is now you're starting to see back month crude is rising, where you see the
fourth quarter crude is up $15 from where it was trading last week, where the back end really didn't move a whole lot, and now it's moving.
And then you have interest rates moving as well. And if you're talking about no cuts this year and no cuts until next year, I mean, I think that the market's probably still way overpriced based on no rate cuts,
because now if you're getting no rate cuts, you have higher oil, you're going to have a softer
consumer and a tougher jobs environment. I mean, they need to it needs to be resolved fast,
because the longer this drags on, the market's just going to trade lower because they're pulling
out growth is going to be impacted pretty significantly if there's no
rate cuts coming and you have structurally high oil around a hundred dollars a barrel or higher
yeah the really damning thing that came out today was the wall street journal uh breaking news that
came out this morning about half of all uncontracted available lng tank, half of them in the world. That's 20 tankers, 20 LNG tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf right now.
The COO of Gaslog, which is a big firm, I forgot which European country they're out of,
but they're out of one of the European countries.
But he was talking to the Wall Street Journal this afternoon, and he said,
this is a crisis unlike one he's ever seen in that region because the ships are stuck
and the ships that want to go
through that region can't go. So it is all for all intents and purposes, the strait is frozen
and there's only two viable alternatives. Either the conflict ends somehow or we leave the region,
the U.S. aircraft carrier groups leave the region, or we take control of the region.
Those are the only three solutions. Either the U.S. Navy somehow gains control and full control
of the region, or they leave, or some X factor happens that ends the conflict. Either Iran
surrenders or, I mean, I don't know. those are the only three viable options to resolve the straight.
And none of those, in my view, seem likely at this time, even though Trump keeps reiterating the idea that that it's going to be a short war and that we've almost accomplished our objectives.
It's not clear to me. And I think it's probably not clear to most onlookers what those objectives are.
I mean, Kamini's son is in charge now,
which is clearly not a viable option. And he is not going to surrender. I mean, you're dealing
with a clerical, radical regime that they don't, you can't logically duel it out with them. That's
not what they care about. They want revenge. He said that directly this morning. They want revenge on America for killing his father.
And so, I mean, like, you can't negotiate with them because, I mean, not to mention we –
I believe they also killed his wife and one of his kids.
Yeah, they killed, like, his whole family.
Yeah, they killed, like, his whole family.
So, I mean, you know, to the extent that he was already a radical cleric in the first place, and now you've further radicalized him.
And I think what we were hoping for was that those initial airstrikes and the killing of the leadership would leave Iran as a leaderless rudder and they wouldn't be able to coordinate the IRGC attacks.
They wouldn't be able to coordinate their military. That has not come to fruition.
They have a coordinated military effort. They're still launching missiles. They're still launching drones. They're attacking ships in the strait. The IRGC is putting out unified statements. So they have a command structure still. And that complicates things because unless you're just going to firebomb the whole country, that might not even work. I mean, I don't know. I know I'm not a war expert here,
but I do pay a lot of attention to geopolitics. It doesn't seem like there's a clean solution here
to where we can just whistle our way out of this or for people who like to use the term taco our
way out of this. I don't see how we do that. I mean, unless you literally just leave. Yeah. Unless we leave. And it's like,
that could be the most viable option because Iran can't attack us outright. Iran cannot
attack the mainland United States outright. They just can't. They don't have the assets to do that.
So that could be maybe the most viable option from a U.S. standpoint. But I mean, I know I'm
sure there's a lot of people who don't want that,
who say, look, now that we started it, we have to finish the job or else you're going to let them build up, et cetera, et cetera.
So I don't know. It's a it's a mess. I think this was, you know, I've been I think pretty fair to both administrations.
When when Biden was president, when Trump was president, I I approve of what I approve of and criticize what I criticize.
There's been a lot of things that Trump's done that I've approved of. I think this was just a grave miscalculation,
just a terrible miscalculation. And yeah, I mean, I don't think the impacts were properly
considered. Like, I'm not saying that they're idiots and they didn't know that the straight
was going to be impacted by this. They probably knew that.
But I'm sure that they thought that the U.S. Navy would be able to fix that problem quickly.
And we have not been able to fix that problem.
So I don't know.
I don't know what the alternative is now.
Tough situation.
Now that you're in it, I mean, I feel like if you back away,
like what's going to stop them from rebuilding up and everything.
I don't think they've,
nothing has really fundamentally changed just staying in the back.
Yeah. I just don't think that they, they lay it down.
You know, it's, I think they got into a mess.
It's going to be a little bit more complicated. And I think it's going to take time in the longer this takes the catalyst
for the market, even once it gets resolved like if this
does last a month or two or three the market's going to be significantly lower and even if they
do resolve it in two months there's already going to be some economic damage that's done because
you're going to have rates that are going to keep pushing higher and that's going to put pressure on
the economy you're going to have oil that's going to be structurally higher and here's the other
thing just because they pull out of there that doesn't mean the risk premium oil is going to put pressure on the economy. You're going to have oil that's going to be structurally higher. And here's the other thing.
Just because they pull out of there, that doesn't mean the risk premium oil is going to go down either.
You're probably going to hire a risk premium in oil for the rest of the year because at any point, maybe it flares up again because they're going to have that built into oil prices. prices so i think to your point i just don't think that there's a way that they that this doesn't do
more damage uh than than it's already done to to the to the real economy and probably the global
economy and even if you know i'm just i just think even if we get that snapback rally i just think in
the big picture on the big time frames where the market started to roll over we're below the 21
week moving average in
Qs and S&P going down to the 200. Like, yeah, there's going to be some buyers there. But like,
even if that goes away, the private equity side, the credit side, credit spreads, unemployment,
like those are the other risks of the market that I think may be being overshadowed. Because
we had a nonfarm payroll sprint of negative 92,000 last week and it got brushed under the radar. Nobody really talked about it that much.
And I can tell you this, if we had that print and Iran was not going on, yields would be
significantly lower and they would be talking about recession and everything else. And that's
been overshadowed by the world that's going on Iran. So I think we're in a tricky situation. And if you're long stocks,
now's probably not the time to go right now
and try to hedge because you got a high VIX, right?
If you are going to do it on a short-term basis
and you got some advanced option trading,
I would 100% be looking at like lower broken wing butterflies
or ratio spreads if you can do that
because you want to sell sell some type of premium
to offset the expensive puts that you're buying uh if the market does go decisively lower it's a
more cost effective way to do it and still capture some of the downside move if we are start if we do
start to go lower but i just don't see in a way where they're just going to pull out and everything's
going to be you know immediately fine now you could get you know unless they declare hey we've hit all our objectives we're done and iran you know goes
away and says okay we're we're gonna ratchet down the rhetoric and maybe it's over but i just think
the longer we go i think it's it's going to be it's going to be more and more complicated
yeah i was looking at some bloomberg studies around the trade of her movies and they're
talking about how long it's being closed for kind of impacting how much the price can get
up to. And they were saying if it's closed for three months, according to Bloomberg's
data and own internal research, I think we'll get up like $165 per barrel oil. If it is closed for two months hundred forty dollars look for one month a
hundred dollar hundred and five dollars ish and one thing to note here is that
it does go down pretty aggressively right after but there is still a little
bit of a lag effect in getting me we own gas prices back down there's it's I
think one thing that's also bringing that we can't forget here is a stock talk
was saying like a lot of ships are actually actively trapped in the Strait of Hormuz.
That's not the Red Sea.
Arabian Sea?
Oh, whatever.
A lot of ships are stuck there.
And I would have thought, when we were even talking like a Pangea logistics,
they don't have any exposure to the Strait of Hormuz,
but I would have thought as the global tanker fleet, all the stuff is 10, 20% of it is taken offline.
The other parts of it would be stretched a little further and probably charging some higher rates.
So yeah, it's a really interesting dynamic going on across the world.
A lot of the crude out there is heavy crude, which is obviously in diesel.
I mean, I just noticed actually was in a diesel truck today.
It was interesting timing. went to venezuela first i mean maybe they needed a couple more
weeks to get some stuff online obviously the oil and gas in venezuela is a lot harder uh whatever
thing not perfect for you know just to be turned into gas for cars yeah it's it's more that heavy
crude which is refined for diesel but like i just i'm obviously in the Chicagoland area, and I just went by a sign as I was driving back on the highway, and I've seen diesel for $5.39 already.
So that obviously flows into commerce and shipping and everything else, and that does create a problem.
I mean, the other thing is now you've got potentially, obviously, more headline inflation that's going to come.
Now, what does the fed do this puts the fed in a big box because they're not going to cut they
can't uh the the only reason that they're going to cut the only reason i see that they could come
out and do some type of cutting in the next i guess call it you know six to twelve months at
this point is the economic data gets bad or we have a blow up in private credit
and one of these, you know, one of these private equity firms gets, you know, goes down or
something like that. Then they're going to have to come in and do emergency cuts because now
you got maybe systemic and the, you know, could it be systemic in the banking,
the banking system? Maybe. I mean, I give that obviously it's a lower risk probability,
banking system, maybe. I mean, I give that obviously it's a lower risk probability,
possibility, but I wouldn't take it off your radar because right now, if we had, you know,
four months ago and said, do we think oil is going to trade $120 a barrel in March? I bet
you everybody said probably no chance is it's trading 55, but here we are. So I think you got
to kind of be ready for anything. And like I said, I think sitting on hands in trading small, if you're a trader, trade, trade small size, you know, don't be in the market.
Watch, you know, put on small risk and and don't you know, now's not the time to be a hero because things I just see so many people like trying to call the bottom and i just think that's that's such the wrong move to do because here they're like oh we're gonna we have that huge candle on um you know on monday off the
bottom and we rally up and people like we're gonna be a new all-time highs in three weeks i'm like
like what is all of a sudden like something you know we get one headline and now everything's
changed so it's like i think you got to look at the overall trend. And the overall trend is the S&P has been under the 50-day moving average,
you know, going on for what, since about a month now.
And this is the first time we've traded under the 50 period
for quite some time on the daily.
And we've just been making, you know, higher lows over and over
from a technical standpoint.
So be nimble, you know, watch rates.
If rates continue to press higher into tomorrow and into next week
and oil stays bid up to 100 and we don't get any relief on that side either,
then I think that, you know, you probably got traders tomorrow
that if that happens and rates keep going up,
I think you sell further down tomorrow because who wants to go long into the weekend?
And then you have the headline risk of just Trump make some announcement
over the weekend, and then futures are going to be up on Sunday.
I mean, there's just so much to be in.
It's like I don't know which side to play because you could certainly,
with one headline, get your face ripped off to the upside.
There's no doubt about that.
So I think, honestly, being patient, there's going to be opportunities
in this market to trade, and I think that maybe sitting on the sidelines or just trading small
size is the way to go right now there's some good takes there i saw a stock talk unloading as well
seems like he's driving as well so he got took off the road hit the 100 button and then kept
moving i love his insights he's got he's got some great stuff i mean i'm curious like stock talk to
you like how long do you think that this really goes on i mean that's you know i know nobody knows
the answer but like from your perspective like how long do you think this really lasts
really lasts dumb question how do you dare you even ask that well yeah it's
like he that's a long time I think it seems like forever
when shooting and beyond no I probably have some problems I was also driving
I mean I Ranger behind him.
He's like,
they can't let down.
Guy wants to talk.
I mean, all the conversations were weeks at the start
in that month.
Four to six weeks
seemed to be the time frame
they were talking about.
I think we're like
two weeks into this.
So, I mean,
it just doesn't feel like
the end is necessarily in sight.
He keeps saying
that four to six weeks, yeah.
His messaging is
we're ahead of schedule. Now, obviously, the messaging is the messaging.
I get that. There's so much confusing messaging across the board that seems to change every
other headline at this point. But the messaging from Trump himself and his side is that they're
ahead of schedule. I don't know if they're saying that to try to calm the market or if they if that's actually what's going on obviously that's for each person to kind
of decide i get the feeling yes i was gonna say he's definitely saying that to calm the market
because one i don't really think it's gonna end anytime soon only because of the fact that unless
unless trump changes his attitude
and just like we're pulling out, like you guys were saying earlier,
it's not really in his prerogative to do that.
It is not like to give up and just pull out and be like,
I made a mistake, guys.
Like, first of all, he's never going to apologize for that.
Second of all, even if he did, you already have all that risk
already on the table.
And then there's other things to worry about in the stock market.
Maybe we'll just chop around, but we're still trending down.
We're doing lower highs, lower lows every single few days.
So it doesn't seem like the market even believes it.
Because even when they released the reserves yesterday,
or when they announced they're going to release the reserves yesterday,
oil just went up. It seems announced they're going to release the reserves yesterday, like oil just went up.
It seems like they're already pulling out the cards that they have on the table.
Releasing the reserves, or when you're starting to release the reserve,
you're kind of announcing that this might last a little bit longer than possible.
Because if you really think it's going to end sooner,
you wouldn't release those reserves.
But I guess maybe they want to release it right now.
And it now looks worse because they're releasing the reserves and oil is higher yeah so percent higher that yeah that that puts
them in a much worse position than they did before because what's the next level what happened with
Biden yeah this is similar to what happened with Biden when they released reserves and then oil
was significantly higher because they did it too quickly right clearly he could have wasted now I'm
not going to criticize what an administration does from a political standpoint as far as like
democrat republicans like it really doesn't matter i feel like you're going to get in you're getting
these situations where one of them is going to make a bad decision one way or another but
i i it the market has been warning about this for a while right like just the fact that what's been
leading the whole market up has not been leading up anymore. And the problem is that the broadening out of the market, which is the bull thesis the
whole time that RSP was at all-time highs. Well, that certainly pulled back because then now you
have financials down the gutter. And I posted charts yesterday that KRE is actually red on the
year now when it was like 17% up. XLF just down as soon as the year started like it didn't even have an opportunity
to be green on the year and then on top of that your other defensives are also down as well
so now you're starting to see the market come down because those defensives are not doing well either
when you when the selling has broadened out to other parts of the market that originally leading
broaden out to other parts of the market that originally leading that is when the sell-off
stays a little bit more sticky because now even after the earnings like what other catalyst could
there possibly be other than trump tweeting something which at this point i'm hard-pressed
to even think if the market's actually going to believe him unless like he says the war is over
right but you're saying yeah go ahead how do you? Well, I mean, that's a great point. And I think like as I'm looking, I was just looking backwards on Fed Fund futures all the way to June of 27 for your first rate cut now. That is a significant move in the
Fed Fund futures market that inflation is obviously a week ago to now you took three cuts out of it in
a week. And I think the big thing this week is all of a sudden the rates market has responded
in a big way where yields
have moved significantly higher than they were on Monday. And I think that is what has the
attention of the market today, along with higher oil. And the fact that we're not talking about
rate cuts until 2027 at this point is maybe your first cut that you get. I mean, that's got to be, that's a big deal.
And unless, I mean, somebody's putting their money there. So to me, that's telling me if
the rates market is moving that much in the long end, there's that much more term premium.
That means that people are betting that this war is going to be significantly longer or have more
significant impacts for structurally higher oil
and inflation on a much longer timeframe at this point. Because that's a very big move in Fed fund
futures, especially when we're talking about two cuts at the beginning of this year, and now you're
talking about zero cuts, and maybe only one cut next year. That's a pretty big change, I think.
Yeah, there's also also surveys and surveys aren't
really the best testament to see as far as positioning because we got a question of
participants who are actually in there but even the NAIM exposure index is printed at 66 this
this week and it's just been trending down a lot of people think like okay well that means that
it's bullish right because a lot of people are sitting out of the stock market that means they're
going to come rushing back in.
We can go back up.
Well, it's like, well, I mean, that could also be the case.
But we kind of saw the same thing last year.
And people thought when the fear and green index was an extreme fear,
as soon as it went extreme fear,
the stock market was down like another 15% after that.
It's like, these aren't bottom indicators.
These are just an indicator of the positioning
and the sentiment of the stock market.
But it's a collectively with all these tools is where you can make your decision. But
I would say the most resounding decision right now is the price action like that. It's just,
it is telling you what it's thinking when pops are getting sold off like that.
Right. And people keep getting bullish and get me wrong. I got a little bit bullish on Monday,
but I didn't like try to chase stuff. But I mean, see that happening it's like it's easier just to just to wait
yeah we we've been in a market like you know ryan and i have been talking about this for
i don't know the latter of two three months now it's like just stuff didn't start to look good
like across the board like we're like yeah you know the banks don't look great like you know i would say of the big mag names probably microsoft was the first one to
break down and then you know meta has its issues and like how do we like we're trying to build a
thesis around like what's gonna take like what's the catalyst to take us to like new highs or go
higher and i'm like man none of these charts like just look that constructive for me to want to get
like insanely bullish to the upside and i think ryan called of these charts like just look that constructive for me to want to get like
insanely bullish to the upside and i think ryan called it perfectly for the first couple months this year is like we've just been kind of in this sideways grindy chop like that's what it's been
like we've just been going sideways ping pong and back and forth between levels and i would say
until you know the war and then this week with rates and oil significantly higher, this is probably
another catalyst that could break the market out of the balance range if these yields keep
pressing up along with oil. So maybe it's a market where we get into like this 2022,
where we get a stair step our way down if the news doesn't get better right away.
And I think you need to be prepared in that situation to look, like I said, sell.
I've been saying this on stream for the last three, four, five weeks. You got to look to sell
rallies. We get bounces in the market. If we don't, we keep making lower highs and you have
to be able to sell those rallies and look for further downside. And I think if you've done that,
you could sell call spreads or sell covered calls or whatever it is on the stuff that you have.
And that's worked, I think, really well for the first two
and a half months of this year.
So I don't know if Ryan has any other commentary just on that side of it,
but I think that's a great point.
We've been in the sideways shop, and he nailed it on that.
Maybe he's there. Maybe he's there maybe he's not well you get rejected left and right sorry for the sorry for the first show in here our second show here on stocks on spaces oh no no no I appreciate you
well everyone should check out I was running back yeah I know I appreciate the kind words I was just running back. I can tell you're in a breath. Yeah, I know. I appreciate the kind words.
I ran upstairs to grab something.
I was like, I always get called on whenever I walk away from the desk for a second.
But I think going back to the point I made earlier, and I appreciate Will for the kind words there, but you as a human, you are conditioned to always be doing something.
You're not doing something,
you feel lazy, you feel like you're not working hard enough, whatever it is.
And this market right now just hasn't given any reason to do anything. I just don't see that.
I mean, that's the... If you just take away all the noise, all the other stuff going on,
I mean, you can analyze this thing to death, but the market doesn't really have a reason to go any higher. And I mean, yeah, you could point to this oil thing a little bit, but
and some of the private credit, but it doesn't really want to go lower because it's fighting
an uptrend. It's fighting a bull market. It's fighting an AI revolution. So you have multiple,
multiple tug of war factors on either side of the rope, just trying to pull it back and forth.
And I think if you're at the point where you're like digging into the financials of Blackstone,
then I feel like you're overanalyzing, you're trying too hard. I mean, those things are good
for professionals to look into and know what's going on in the market. I get that. But at the
same time, I think the average person is just, they really want to be doing something all the
time because their human nature is conditioned that they have to do that. And I think that's where people get into the most trouble,
especially in times like this of the market. Stocktalk said it earlier,
been up three years in a row. I mean, a sideways year would be still a healthy market, honestly.
You know, that's one thing I will say, despite the backdrop, despite all the reasons for
this market to be down 5%, 10%, 15% from wherever it was, the market has stayed extremely resilient
and strong.
And, you know, it does feel like the biases to the downside here going forward, at least
in the short term.
Now, median term, long term, I'm a permable, if I'm being real.
So, you know, and I feel like I'll be right 90% of the time and the 10%, 5%, whatever it is.
I'm just not right at that moment in time.
So that is the one thing I would say with the backdrop of this is all the weaknesses,
all the reasons for this market to be down much lower.
And a lot of the times in the past, you would probably want to see like a market that's having
trouble with price discovery, move a little lower to some lower levels, find that price discovery, build back up and try again for the move higher.
But this market hasn't necessarily done that yet.
We're in kind of a battleground here and the backdrop feels a little, I don't know if bleak's the right word, but not as sunshine and roses as it was before.
It's hazy. I would say the word is hazy. Yeah. Right. There's just like, no, I think, I think Ryan was saying this the other
day. It's like, I just don't have like good clarity here. You know, it's like, like what,
what, what clarity do you have like to, to do anything? And obviously if you're a short-term
trader and you know, there's been some great opportunities to trade levels, there's no doubt we've been doing that.
But, you know, if you're a longer term investor and you're thinking to your point, yeah, you want to be a permable because the market has positive drift.
And, you know, the S&P 10 years from now is going to be higher than it is now.
And 10 years after that, I'll probably be higher than that. So long term, you obviously, you want to buy stocks and you want to buy the best companies
in the world when the market gives you the best opportunities when they're discounted.
And those are times if you just said, hey, like Warren Buffett said, you buy all your
favorite companies every time they touch the 200 period moving average and just buy them
in bulk, right?
You'll do extremely well.
You'll beat the S&P 500 just buying the best companies in the world. but uh to that point it's like you want to find stuff that's on sale you
find good companies that are that get sold off in in contagion with with other fears or uh whatever
is going on in the world in companies that aren't going anywhere companies are going to have growth
that's where you want to go look for and there's a ton of them i'm gonna tell you right now the
software space ai is not going to take them out completely they're not going to have growth. That's where you want to go look for. And there's a ton of them. I'm going to tell you right now, the software space, AI is not going to take them out completely.
They're not going to be completely gone. And there's some very good valuations on some of
these companies. I highly doubt Microsoft's going to be gone in five years. It's not realistic.
So I think a lot of these companies that are on sale, you want to buy the best ones with the best
balance sheets and the best cash flow. And those are the names that are on sale, you want to buy the best ones with the best balance sheets and the best cash flow.
And those are the names that are that are crushed in the software space that you can go buy right now that are probably on sale.
Could they go lower? Sure, they can. And if the whole market starts to sell, they will definitely go lower.
Is it possible Microsoft goes another hundred dollars? Very much it could.
But that means it will be on sale. And I do think companies like
that that are quality will end up going higher long term and they'll give you great opportunities
to buy them because the turmoil doesn't last forever. The wars, everything we look at,
we just had all time highs not too long ago. And we've been through a lot in the last hundred years
around the world. So you want to buy stuff when there's blood in
the streets and everything looks like it's only going to get worse is when you want to go out
there and try to buy stuff. So be patient, look for opportunities. If there's stuff that you do
like, size in small and be able to average down on great companies that you want to hold long term, or if you can sell way out of the
money puts. And guess what? If you find levels on stocks that you sell puts on and you get put
to the stock that you want to own it, that's a great place to be. You collected a big premium
on high volatility, and then you're owning stocks at levels that you like. I think that's a great
move is go out 60, 90 days, 120 days where
you got implied vol that's risen across the board and sell puts. If you can, you have the ability
to based on your account size and stuff that you like. And if you get put to the stock at a lot
lower levels, you know, go out and sell, if you like Microsoft at 300, sell the 300 puts 90 days
from now. If it doesn't go there, you're going to collect some premium and you'll collect some yield on some cash.
So I think that's kind of how I'm playing it
and what I think I'll be doing going forward.
Yeah, it is a good place for us to leave it on this basis.
Will, I really do hope you come and join in on these stocks on spaces more often.
Awesome addition, but an awesome addition to the Wolf Trading crew.
For anyone who doesn't know, I said earlier, Wolf Trading live all day, every day on here on X, YouTube, all that good stuff.
Tomorrow is going to be an all day live stream.
Obviously, stocks on spaces is being hosted here.
We've been doing this for like three, four years now.
Every single Monday through Thursday, 3 to 5 p.m. Eastern at least.
Make sure you are following the host of the spaces. I actually never run running the account, but like my phone just keeps glitching. So I haven't been able to talk from it. So follow the hosts,
follow the speakers, Will, Ryan, StockTalk, that Wolf account, all fantastic additions,
releasing smart people. Next week is going to be a little bit of an interesting week of stocks on spaces. Myself and Stock Talk will be out at GTC at NVIDIA's conference. We're going
to get to see a Jensen Mahon keynote. We are going to maybe get to ask Jensen a question,
some other cool stuff, demos. We have some interviews as well with the NVIDIA team. We're
going to have to plan some of that stuff out. So we should be getting some cool exclusive
stuff. As far as stocks on spaces, I'm excited. We've been doing this for three years, as I was saying.
And for anyone who doesn't know, Gov, actually the person who started the Wolf brand,
and I guess he hasn't been on Spaces much recently,
he was the main host for the first year of this or so, maybe a little longer.
And he will be hosting the Spaces next Monday and Tuesday.
So next Monday and Tuesday, we're going to be OG back to hosting the Spaces. We're getting some people to join in. Scott Redler, obviously, on the Mondays.
Jennifer Schoenberger should be on there on Tuesday. Jennifer is one of the people that is
in the room at the FOMC press conference. So FOMC is on Wednesday. We have someone who's in the room
going to ask Jerome Powell a question, who's going to come on our spaces next Tuesday, I think around
3.30 p.m. Eastern. So I am excited for that one. We have quite the fast week coming up next week.
And obviously the Wolf Trading guys, Ryan, Will, that whole crew, they're going to be live throughout
this entire time. We actually don't let them leave their houses during the day for anyone who doesn't
know. So they'll be there. Don't worry. I appreciate everyone for joining in. We really do take it seriously.
The stocks on spaces and everything you guys have allowed us to become a part of your daily
routine.
And, uh, you know, we don't take that for granted.
We're trying to really create as much great content as we can and trying to bring on some
big speakers and other cool stuff like that.
So I just appreciate you all for sticking with us.
Well, speakers, if anyone has any final words feel free to jump in but um wolf trading will
be live tomorrow with you guys it was great i hope everybody has a uh safe evening and afternoon and
uh tomorrow should be some more fireworks stay diligent and uh like i said two things i will
focus on tomorrow in for day trading and short
term trading is what are interest rates doing and what is oil doing i think if you have
extra screens and extra charts up i would be looking at the two-year and the 10-year yield
and see what they're doing and then also look at the price of oil i think that will determine
price of oil, I think that will determine probably tomorrow's trade.
If those keep pressing higher on both on the yield side and the oil side,
I think that equities trade lower.
And if those both come off and you see rates come in a bit or we get some headlines,
you'll probably see both oil and rates come in.
And I think that'll keep you on the right side of the market for tomorrow.
Sir, and you're going to get that here. Hopefully we'll live on the,
and we'll train live stream tomorrow. And for anyone who doesn't know,
sometimes I don't know my life has turned into meetings,
but I really try my favorite thing 4 PM Eastern right after market close on
Fridays is geo guesser time. So I'm going to make sure that we can do that
tomorrow. I got at least 30 minutes there we'll play some geoguester tomorrow we'll get the we'll get the sun as well in there too
shout out to last week's friday live stream was a fun time um so yeah appreciate you will
appreciate the speakers that ryan shout out stock talk inner stock talks had a crazy week
done some properties moving to new mexico monitoring the situation a lot going on but uh yeah we should
get some exclusive content for you guys next week as well so i'm excited for that ryan whatever you
say here after this is going to be the end of the spaces i'm not going to say anything after this
and close it down so close us out here
I was not ready for this at all.
Amazon Prime moves Prime Day from June to June from July.
There you go.
