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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: July 21, 2025 Duration: 2:04:03Space Recording
Short Summary
As the earnings season heats up, major tech players like Tesla and Google are set to report, fueling optimism in the market. Discussions highlight the resilience of tech stocks, with a focus on growth potential driven by AI advancements and strategic partnerships.
Full Transcription
Thank you. so
What is up, everyone?
Welcome in.
Happy Monday.
Hope you're all doing well out there.
It's July the 21st.
It's a quick popper in the morning and a sideways day in the market, but a lot of green on my screen as I look across the landscape here.
And, of course, as soon as I say that, it starts to pull back a little bit.
We're green, though.
NASDAQ is up 0.7%. I see SPY. The S&P is up about 0.4%. The small caps break even on the day. Not a whole lot going on. There are some things under the hood moving around
a little bit, but big cap land, you know, MAG7 land, you have basically a red Tesla that's been
sideways all day. You have NVIDIA sitting at
breakeven. And a couple other things up. Google's up 2.5% today. Broadcom had a nice day at 1.7%.
Netflix 1.8% up. Even Meta up over 1%. So a couple things sticking out there. Amazon,
I didn't mention that one, up 1% as well. It's been an interesting day in the market. A couple
names and pockets moving. A couple things not really doing a whole lot today. Kind of slow on
the news front, but a couple things going on. We'll see what everyone thinks about everything.
We'll jump into it a little bit here. Let me get the rest of the panel up here on.
Yeah. I also didn't hear you talk about Apple too, by the way. Just saying.
Apple's not a Mag 7 anymore.
Let's just call it out.
Apple tried to break out and failed and is back at lows of the day.
For the nth time is what you mean.
Yes.
For the nth time.
I like that.
Evan, anything that really stuck out to you today?
I didn't see a whole lot on the news front.
There was a kind of a – what they're saying is a fake news article on Sentinel One being taken over
by Pan W a few moments ago at Palo Alto.
And other than that,
I don't really,
I didn't really have a whole lot of news on my radar.
Was there anything that stuck out to you today
or over the weekend, Evan?
Nothing that we have to start the spaces with
if I am being fully honest.
I can tell you, yes.
You know what?
We got a little S&P 500 and NASDAQ rebalance.
No one talked about the NASDAQ 100.
Did you know Reuters is joining the NASDAQ 100?
Big tech company, I guess.
But XYZ joining the S&P 500, I thought that was interesting.
But no, I'm excited to hear what everyone has to say.
Obviously, we're back into earnings season, so I guess that's kind of the news here.
There isn't much on the other kind of macro data front.
So earnings, I think, is going to be in the boat.
We got Tesla this week.
We have Google this week.
I'm kind of excited to hear what Google has to say.
There's a lot of those other interesting companies in different areas.
I'm not looking at it right now.
My computer is actually freezing for some reason.
I know we have Coca-Cola, Lockheed martin and raytheon all reporting
tomorrow morning which i am uh looking forward to so yeah stuff going on i'm excited to hear what
uh some of these awesome traders up here are gonna say and uh my apple calls that i bought
live on these spaces when someone was shit talking the stock i will not name who are still up it's stock talk stock talk all right let's uh confirm neither deny deny yeah there
you go uh yeah a lot of things coming up this week obviously with the earnings and everything
going on but let's dive into it uh scott how are you sir great to have you back on stage with us
what's uh what's going on in your world what's going on in my world every time i look at my
virtual trade
floor, which is real positions, I'm trying to figure out what can I get rid of so I don't get
caught just in case we finally roll over a little bit. And every week I try and reduce and then some
new things perk up and then a lot of setups continue just to continue to work. And I feel
like I'm still caught in like 30 you know, 30 positions and I trade
actively for a living. So whenever that's the case, that means we've been trending for a while.
And we, you know, like I think a bunch of weeks ago, we talked about how the S&P held the 21 day
again. And, you know, here we are almost at a, you know, at another high where I'm actually a
little over hedged right here. I've sold premium in the spies. I'm short a little spy from Friday, actually.
And just to have a little bit more of a hedge, I have the 625 puts.
But I am net long.
I'm just saying I'm at a spot where I'm like, OK, you know, this morning I was up a lot
of money and then the market went up a little bit more and my P&L started going lower and
I've given money back.
So that means my positions aren't so great right now.
And I've been up 16 out of 17 days in a row at the highs of my year on all my accounts. So I'm just trying
to avoid giving money back in August for no reason. So anyway, the names that we've been
going over here, I've been talking about Amazon for a month. I haven't bought on strength once
because you haven't been able to in the mag seven. All I keep doing is every time it pulls in, I buy the stock and I roll options higher.
And Amazon still is probably my biggest long right now.
Google was my biggest long coming into today.
And I've taken off most of it because the earnings are on Wednesday.
And I'm going to figure that out.
We've been in that thing talking about it since the 172s.
So the only way to play make money
really in the mag 7 was to buy on those trend lines each and every time and then adding has been
tough as far as your apple conversation you know remember we the real trade was when i was at 203
we were talking about that when the first ai news broke and that was a great trade from
203 50 to like tool 15 and now it's trying to prove it could flag and do it again
so i'm also there but i'm i'm a little skeptical it's it's you know the it's hard it doesn't have
traction you have to you know i'm almost getting rid of the shares and just have some calls on
just in case that kind of news breaks because it's still you know that there's no no traction um
i'm at the point where there's no real like i'm looking
there's no real money trades it's just like uh it's just a trend that if you want to stay with
and kind of be smaller and make sure that the trend stays the same you know then then that's
cool because i feel like we are close to you know some kind of you know um area where it's going to
get a little trickier and i know i said that coming into
this week uh last week but i again i still have 25 things on that i'm trying to just keep producing
at least share wise um you know ethereum i just i just finished it my position we were talking about
buying the ethe 22 calls a month ago when bitcoin was close to like 105 106 so that was a great trade now i
feel like it needs time you know bitcoin 106 was a great trade to 123 now it feels like it's
struggling to hold 115. i feel like at this point of the summer after the size of the move that
we've seen you have to really just measure your commitment to your involvement with the names
you're in and if you've had a great run run, just make sure you're reduced and enjoy your summer a little bit.
It's July 21st.
Somebody's like, well, does Netflix mean the earnings season is going to not have enough?
I'm like, well, Netflix was different.
Netflix has made higher highs four different times this year.
So it didn't really matter what it was going to say.
Kind of like the same thing JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs did the week before.
They just sold the news and now they're rebuilding.
So does that mean that there could be no money in Google post numbers or Tesla?
I'm like, well, they're different names.
Tesla hasn't been making higher highs all year.
And you could go back a year, it was higher.
It was higher.
Google, you can go back a year, was in the same spot.
Google, you can go back a year, was in the same spot.
They're more similar to like the way Nvidia was,
where Nvidia was in the same spot before breaking above that 146 to 151 area.
So just because Netflix didn't pay option, guys,
I don't think you could just extrapolate that to Tesla and Google
that are different names and they have different charts.
That's what you have to kind of look at in earnings season is,
where have these things been? What have they done for the last year? are different names and they have different charts. That's what you have to kind of look at in earnings season is, you know,
where have these things been?
What have they done for the last year?
And is it worthy of trying to be cued and make money playing an option play
where they juice up the premiums galore?
So far, you know, everyone's like, right, dog, you usually do 10 earnings plays
and sometimes you have like 10X, 8X.
I haven't done any earnings plays yet.
I didn't play Netflix.
I didn't play netflix i didn't play goldman and jp morgan you know i've done better with actual just with options with stocks
with their charts whether it was again ethereum was a huge winner um bitcoin was a huge winner
amazon was a huge winner google was a huge winner but it's great when they give you the like google
and amazon giving you these moves pre preprint so you don't have to take them into the print.
Feels like Quantum tried to break out today,
but QBTS had like a false breakout.
When QBTS was trying to go up, QUBT was weak and so was IONQ,
so I feel like that group's a little wishy-washy. The drone names, I sold a lot last week, and now they feel like they're –
it just feels like you've got to be a little careful in this spot.
And that's what I'm trying to be as we roll over a little bit here in the spies as we're talking.
Scott, when it comes to that big picture here, do you think it's – you think the market's waiting on just the next catalyst at this point?
Is it waiting on earnings to see what's going on over there?
Is it waiting on August 1st?
Is it the bond market?
What do you think we're waiting on here?
Well, right now it's earnings.
Every week, this is something different.
Last week, we were waiting on the July tariffs.
The week before, we were waiting on rates.
The week before, we were waiting on whether we were – on whether it's always something far or parallel.
Right now, I feel like, first of all, the market hasn't weighed on anything because we're at the
highs of the year. Now the question is, what will be a catalyst for people to say, hey,
I'm taking my profits and I don't really care what goes on here? They tried doing that last
week, if you remember, when the IWM and and the x buy opened up you know uh well and they
reversed and those bearish engulfing days and then you had the the s p and the queues opened up at
highs and they failed to hold the prior breakout area and then they made lows and then all of a
sudden on wednesday they saved the day again so i feel like the market's more waiting on whether or
not sellers will actually have a little extra power and keep market down below the 8 or 21 day for
for more than a session
you know what i'm saying so the price action keeps rewarding dip buyers until it doesn't
and you know you just don't want to do it you know at a time where you're going back to the well
too fast and i'm trying not to go back to the well because the well has been flowing well
um so anyway i yeah at this point i feel like they want to see mark and they want to see
you know are earnings enough enough for another upside move?
Netflix earnings were good, but it wasn't exciting enough for it to go back to all-time highs.
Will Google's number be good enough for it to go to 200 plus?
If Google all of a sudden comes out and it's really strong again, and the AI search is in a problem and it doesn't go higher,
it'll give more clues that things are just too priced in and they need time. Tesla also, Tesla, which way are they going to go?
Is it going to be glass half empty where they're focusing more on the EV business or is it going
to be glass half full where it's going to be robotics, autonomous driving and the future?
So I think we're trying to figure out what's left here.
Could we carve any more meat off this bone,
especially from the active long side?
And it's hard to tell.
I feel I'm a little bit,
this is the most careful I'm trying to be now.
And I'm still looking at my position.
So I'm trying to figure out what's worth it.
You should sometimes ask yourself,
is this trade worth it, even if it might work, if it's going to wind up getting you too overextended, like even the video,
like the videos, is it worth sitting in there? If you're an active trader who trades for a living at this point, there's no setup there. It's just, you know, uh, above the eight and 21 day,
it's above that, that gap from the chip news, but it's, you know, it's just, it's, there's nothing that it's, it's, it's, it's tired.
But I'm, I'm a very active guy that, you know, gets paid monthly and quarterly. And that's what, you know, 500 of my other people in the alpha team room is. So they need to be right every
other day or every few days. Yeah. That seems to be the toughest thing,
right. As some of there's these pockets, the market where maybe you can find something here or there, but overall it's like, okay, take some stuff down. Like you were saying, let things run into earnings, take some stuff down off the board and just sitting and waiting for that next setup is probably one of the hardest things, especially sitting up here at all time highs.
yeah and you have to like i just took off my google today this first time on the alpha team
i'm on any google any options um but i'm in amazon still because amazon you know that their numbers
aren't coming out um when's amazon's numbers coming out aren't they next week uh yeah next
thursday with apple right so i feel like you know there's still like google's up amazon will be up
if google's down you could probably still buy Amazon and be able to trade around it.
So I'm bigger there.
It also hasn't gone as much as Google.
Google kind of outperformed last week because Amazon had, you know,
a few of those Jeff sells, you know, think he's on his honeymoon now.
So maybe he's not leaning on the stock today.
He's about 55.
He's about 55% of the way through his stock sale by the way bezos
oh okay that's good to know that is good to know you know him and mckenzie own like freaking 18 19
percent of the float and they're always net sellers which is always tricky for the stock if
you feel longer term i mean shorter term sorry and after this we'll get a nice window in amazon
where it's clear to trade until he gets divorced.
So that will be good.
Oh, shit.
And then she'll get gifted stock that she doesn't care about and she'll start selling.
Right, right.
So let me just jump in here real quick because I got to unfortunately jump in a bit.
I think Scott made a really interesting point early on you know
when you've been doing this uh as long as a lot of us have you create what i guess are called
internal indicators and we all have like the standard indicators moving averages macds but
you see patterns in the market that make you pay attention and get a little bit more focused. And like one of the ones I've seen lately is I usually set alerts for my stocks higher and lower.
They have different sounds, right?
If they're going up, they'll make a certain sound when they trigger a level.
If they're going down, they'll see the opposite.
At the morning open, I'm just hearing tons of these upside alerts going, right?
And I'm seeing all these gaps and these runs really hard in the first 30 minutes, but then they're giving it back, right? They're
not holding it. That's a signal, right? That's a sign that something's going on. Doesn't mean you
trade right off of it, but it's a piece of the puzzle. Another piece of the puzzle is the
crappiest stocks are going. Like right now, the pot stocks are going. Generally, over the last
five years, when the pot stocks start to rally, it means we're kind of at the end of a short term uptrend.
You got stocks like Curaleaf, which are up 23 percent.
Like that's not a good sign.
see things that are on your list forever and ever and ever, and price is not taking them off one way
or the other. They're not breaking out, but they're not fully breaking down. Those are all part of the
puzzle pieces that you have to go, okay, do I need to have all these positions? Are the odds in my
favor? Is there more upside for these positions or have they already run hard? And then you just
have to trim as they hit your timeframes or your technical spots.
Now, having said that, I will tell you that there's two things that I think are interesting.
One is we talked about Apple before, right?
So Apple has knocked on the door of its all-time high VWAP a couple of times.
It hit it on the 7th, and it just hit it today, and it got knocked back down both times.
That also lines up with the 200 day moving average.
Sometimes you have to knock on those doors a few times to get sellers out of the way.
If we can get Apple above that level before earnings, I think we can get a really nice pop.
The problem you have with Apple is you have to think, well, everything else in the universe has run over the last three months and it hasn't, right? So is it still playing catch up or is it a situation where it's just, it's not going to do
it and it's going to fail. So there are individual names you can look at where you say, okay,
maybe it's worth me hanging in Apple a little bit to see if we can get above that level. But then
names like Nvidia that have already made a big, massive run, you say, well, that's maybe not one that I'm willing to park my money in for too long.
So it's just a combination of figuring out what your methodology is and then listening to those internal signals that you get.
Honestly, I think that's the difference between good traders and great traders.
And I'm not saying I'm a great trader.
Sometimes I am.
Sometimes I'm a shitty trader.
But we have to make these decisions in real time. And a lot of times they're very, very subtle decision points where, again,
one by itself doesn't really mean anything. But if you start seeing two or three or four,
that's when you really have to say, OK, I got to really focus and see if I need to be in these
positions, if it's making sense, if I've got the odds in my favor, or if maybe, you know,
like Scott said, it's time to just cut back and enjoy my summer.
Yeah, exactly.
The seat time creates your inner voice.
And if you listen to your inner voice more times than not, it'll tell you the right thing
to do.
So again, this morning, I was like, when I was, I opened up, I was up a lot of money
and then market still was doing well.
And I'm like, my P&L is coming off.
I'm like, I'm in too many things right now.
Let me see what's telling me what.
So the false breakout in QBTS when QUBT was heavy, I'm like, I got to get rid of some of these quantum names.
Thank goodness I sold a lot of the drone names on Friday, so I'm okay to buy it back slow.
ASTS has been an absolute monster for us.
I'm the smallest that I've been. I remember last time we were on, I think it was below 45. I'm
like, I'm finally buying some options back. That was after the pullback in 54. And now at 58,
I'm smaller there. But a lot of rumble on what's it called last week between 10 and 1040. I feel
like I sold some 1070.
I'm nibbling here.
I feel like that can go higher.
They should come out with some news about their Bitcoin buys or whatever the hell that is.
But yeah, this is like a spot where it's like, you don't have to get it.
By the way, it's not all or nothing.
You don't have to like, if you're like, I don't want to risk on, I'm getting a lot of everything.
It's like, no, what is worth you staying in and giving your mind power to?
And what isn't worth it?
So then you have less bandwidth out there so you can actually see other things too.
And at this point, trying to feel like it's not worth it to me to be in Ethereum right now.
ETHE was 21, 22, and I even rolled it up twice.
Here, I'm like, you know what?
Let it hang out a little bit.
You saved it with NVIDIA. NVIDIA is not acting poorly, but if we wind up getting a 1% down day, not saying we will,
that's going to all of a sudden give you a big, probably red candle, and you're going to lose
there and lose eight other places. Then all of a sudden, if you lose in eight other places,
like sitting in a swing in NVIDIA when you don't need to be, that'll add up to a day you don't
want to give back.
And I think the other thing that people have to remember is their timeframes.
Not everybody has a super short timeframe.
Sometimes people have an intermediate timeframe.
Sometimes you're what I call an active investor, right?
You're not really on a day-to-day basis turning over your positions, but you want to be strategic in where you get in those positions that you want to hold for a long time.
So let me give an example of that.
So everyone is focusing on Tesla because we've got earnings coming out in two days because
there's been this soap opera between him and Trump and the administration.
And do people like Elon?
And do they not?
Yeah, I don't know.
But if you look at the charts, right, go to a weekly chart of Tesla.
Tesla is basically in a five-year base,
okay? And if you go back and see the last time it was in a base of that size, it was basically
between 2013, 2019, a six-year base. After it broke out, it went 1,500% in like 12 months.
Now, I'm not saying Tesla's going to do that, but I'm saying if you're a longer term investor, if you have a faith and a longer term thesis in something like Tesla,
you shouldn't be listening to the news and the soap opera. And you shouldn't really care that
much about what's happening on earnings in two days. You should be zooming out. You should be
figuring out strategic spots where you can add over time that makes sense, where you can define your risk. So again, it's all about what you're looking to
get out of the market. I may trade Tesla one way. Another person may trade Tesla a different way.
I may trade Tesla two different ways. I might have a portion of it that I want to do short,
quick, oversized positions that I'll get out as soon as they move in my direction. And I may also have something in a different account that I want to accumulate slow. It's
all about your strategy, but you got to have a strategy. You have to know what your end outcome
is supposed to be and then try to manage it towards that.
Just and lastly, on that note before, you know, the people want to talk. That's why on the
weekends I list like my seven accounts.
I'm 52.
I have a day trading account to day trade a lot when the market's volatile.
I have a swing trading account, and I have an options account, so I know where everything is and what to use based on the market.
So that's my T3 world besides a 401k, which is Scott Reddler world, 529 for my son, which
is Scott Reddler world, and then a whole life insurance policy.
But anyway, I have blood on the street account.
So that's a lot of accounts.
What I will say here, it sounds like a lot of people are like active investors.
They might not be getting paid on August 1st for July.
And you have positions.
If you have NVIDIA, I don't want you to sell NVIDIA because you say, oh, Red Dog said
sell NVIDIA.
It's not worth it.
That's not true. If you've had it on for four years, you're't want you to sell NVIDIA because you say, oh, Red Dog said sell NVIDIA. It's not worth it. That's not true.
If you've had it on for four years, you're going to have it on for another three because
that's what you do.
And if you are that active, then you learn how to trade the big ranges.
Like Mike said, look at the weekly and the monthly charts.
It could be good spots to sell a covered call strategy.
Right now, it wouldn't be the worst thing if you sold a covered call strategy. Like right now, it wouldn't be the worst thing if you sold a covered call strategy after the stock just went from 146 to 174 just to create income around things.
Or sometimes a name you love like Tesla comes in so much, then you go low or sell some puts.
So you can create income around the positions you love.
And that's probably what people are doing actively if they don't hold the position.
So it sounds like a lot of guys are putting the time in.
So if you're putting the time in, there's lots of ways to create cash around things you've been in for the mid and the long term besides trying to be right every day, which is what a lot of people need to do if they're trading for a living.
Anywho, so who has an idea that they think is going to be up this week that's going to make
money for everyone like is something is there something i we've come up in the last month or
two i you know me and mike came up with you know in the video when we were frustrated 146 amazon we
came up with google we came up with you know i think i gave you guys umac before at eight dollars before it went to
13 um you know so asts we've always talked about with a lot of guys contributing um if someone
said a gun you know water pistol to to back of the neck you know come up with something you think
could make money this week um right now it'd be a little harder that's why i think it's a little
wishy-washy right now it would be hard for me to do that.
I've probably saw spreads.
Do you ever do anything like that?
Just the indices.
Just put a condor on it or something.
Well, I sell it.
Right now I'm actually short naked.
The 631s and the 632s.
So I don't have to be right that much. And if I'm wrong,
all my positions will be higher. I'll lose a little there. And I also just the way I was
feeling today, I bought some 625 Friday puts with the money generated from there. But yeah,
you could do that. Because we're not that overbought, believe it or not. The oscillator
was only plus 22 today. It wasn't even plus 40. When we're plus 40, I'm selling premium everywhere.
You know, but a plus 22, you're kind of overbought. When we're plus 40, I'm selling premium everywhere,
you know, but a plus 22, you kind of overbought, but you're not really overbought.
Yeah, exactly. I like that line of thinking. Options, Mike, what's up?
Hey guys. I'm kind of with Scott, you know, Scott's selling premium. I've been cutting my positions. In fact, the only position I'm heavy in right now still is Amazon.
And, but I own it from 19480. I mean i owe it lower and higher you know average that's my
average cost on as i went into it and actually i'm debating how much of i want to sell before
i hit a google earnings on wednesday night because if google is bad that'll probably take a hit if
google is good that'll probably ramp so you know or do i want to just sell calls against it you
know i own a little apple and long term a little bit of IVIT and the Qs and Snow and Spy, but I'm pretty small there.
Scott made a great point.
For me today, I was focused on Meta, Apple, and Google pre-market, and I did trade all three on the open because they had volume pre-market and they were stronger pre-market, showing where it wants to go.
But none of them did I stay in for long.
You know, they were ball, like, you know, five-minute max, you know,
10-minute type trades because these moves aren't seeming to last that long.
Well, Google with stock, Meta and Apple with options and, you know,
option premiums on Meta for next week are jacked because of earnings.
So I traded weekly, which I hate doing.
But what i did notice
on friday is again looking around is some of the leaders here are showing signs of exhaustion finally
if you look at the candles that developed on coin and hood and palantir they're starting to show
some shines of uh exhaustion buyers maybe you know finally being um just running out of buyers to buy
them and you know the setups just aren't great you know and
you see a lot of these little names like open moving and stuff that's usually another warning
sign to me that the market's kind of it's at least it's tired or it's waiting because it cannot move
the big names anymore and you know another warning sign for me scott i know if you pepsi last week
had fabulous earnings and it's already filling that earnings gap and that's generally not a good
sign right you want that to hold you know it's pulling back out of it here but it went back into it here and
you know an earning report like that i would expect it to hold in a little bit better and
i don't know markets just feeling a little bit tired here seasonality is working against us
it's summer it's slower i mean i don't know about you guys i traded in the first half now i don't
think i've done anything since and this market this This day is just dragging. You know, it's just like nothing going on. You just keep looking for something that's not there. I'll give you a setup, Scott, and I hate the name, but GME is touching this big ass gap it has from a couple months ago. It just went up and kissed it just about a half an hour ago and pulled off of it. I don't know what the catalyst will be to get it going.
and pulled off of it i don't know what the catalyst will be to get it going by the way it's
funny that you said that because i just i just bought the uh the 2450 calls for friday i figure
like if it's going to go it's going to happen with this little meme stuff i think there's still some
maybe some news that they can come out and talk about how much crypto they bought with all those
money raises and atms so it's funny i haven't been in it in a long time i feel like you know
people are looking for things to do i don't want in it in a long time i feel like you know people are looking for
things to do i don't want to be in the stock just in case it fails but that you know right now you
can look at the 24 50s for friday because i don't need to be in the past this week are only 32 cents
so if it's going to go into that gap and squeeze and do something you know you could see 26 and
that's that's a nice little trade good that's like a lotto-type trade. But I would say it's not an 11 versus six in blackjack,
but I would say it's like you're a nine versus six,
and you kind of think he's going to turn over a face card and bust,
and you'll stay in that hand.
Yeah.
And as you said, these little names are running, right?
So why not?
Maybe they'll come back and give that one a pop again.
Right.
But I'm buying the options not to share.
Because if it doesn't work, it doesn't work.
And Tesla to me, I think it's going to be – okay, sorry.
No, no, continue. I want to hear what you have to say about Tesla.
I think Tesla is going to be all about the conference call.
I think the numbers that come out are going to be irrelevant.
I think the bad news is baked in so even if they are bad or they're better it's going to be all about musk
on that call assuming he's on it what he says about um cyber taxi and how soon they can start
monetizing that and he's going to get peppered i think on the politics and stuff and how he
responds to that and if he takes those questions but sometimes he just refuses to take those type of questions um and you know it's all about the future with him i think whatever the
numbers are as long as he turns a profit it doesn't matter i don't think the stock gets hit unless he
says we're all cyber taxis a year plus out before we monetize it that would be a problem yeah i don't
i don't think i'll say something like that i think it's still people gonna ask him about the third
party is he really serious about it and hopefully he says no you know i feel
like he's learning the fact that just all washington politics suck and you know he tried
to do the right thing and cut costs and this and that and no one has to go jones to stick to anything
that could actually help down the road but we won't talk politics so hopefully he says i'm back
at tesla i'm focused here and if he does that you know i feel like
resistance is like 360 so if you wanted to do like a call spread i feel like you could do like a
you know um a 345 by 360 and your risk isn't that much and you could probably do a you know
7 to 10x if if it gets to you know the three to 360 and that's only just where we kind of failed
uh a while what you know where was that that was uh
you know we were at what 357 on june 23rd so that's pretty realistic and that's not even with
a huge move yeah yeah i i don't again i don't think it's going to move off the numbers itself
as big as people expect right it's about the the conference call too and that's whether or not you know it
can go up 10 points and you can still lose long options in tesla you need like a big that's why
you have to do like a call spread and just make sure you know the areas you know i like to think
like what's the easy thing to get over and where we'll have a hard time and that's how i create my
call spread like i mean the market makers got the the market makers love Netflix because it opened up barely down.
And you know, most people that had their calls, they made money left and right on that.
So, and, you know, and Netflix, again, you know, this is the other thing to watch.
Their guidance was all based upon currency changes.
That's not what you want to hear from a company like Netflix.
Yeah.
You know, we're talking talk one of the setups i'd be curious your thoughts it might fall into i don't know if it's a car or not but our rocket companies rkt it might be moving off
of this open door theme but i haven't seen it increase people talking about it there's nothing
wrong with them as a company but they're just yeah i'm on it actually my guys in the alpha team
called that out i bought it they actually weren't even talking about the meme they were talking about
like rates and uh you know rates are going lower so they were saying you know it's a lender that
banks are okay etc etc so they were like using that besides the meme and besides you know same
kind of thing people were looking at like home builders today they're saying all right if rates
are going to come down home builders might be at the next sector that can get
a little attention and rkt just happened to have a nice chart and you know it was trading above 14
and still looks good nice volume today too it seems like it's approaching some some resistances
on the i saw people drawing downwards trends i've also, I'm just looking on the chart right now, around this $14.50, $15 range, $15.50 range.
Seems to be a level.
It's come in and turned as resistance a couple times.
Maybe it supports.
Yeah, now it looks like it could see $16.
That was the highest back in April.
And that's not with the meme juice,
if it just wants to go up because rates are coming in
and the banks got better. If you want something, I think Goldman
Sachs is a decent setup. Goldman Sachs, they sold it on earnings just because, you know,
that's what they were doing at the time and in the mood to do. You know, it could be long versus
691-ish. Actually, yeah, they sold today too. It was up a little bit. I take some caution today.
You know, if you feel like you have a lot of
long positions you know go out and buy like the 625 puts for this friday just in case or go out
you know a little bit longer term and maybe buy some 620s or 618s because that's that was where
support was you know last week ethereum's coming in i'd be definitely trimming that bitcoin didn't you know had a kind of a
reversal again yeah i think caution caution banks thanks round trip banks loads of the day round
tripped from one liters early on yeah again this little subtle warning signs that this market might
be running out of buyers up here. Yeah.
I got back all my money from my hedges that I had on.
I was losing most there.
So that makes sense.
It's interesting.
And let's be clear that just because it's running out of steam,
I don't think anyone's saying it's going to crash, right? We're just saying that it may have gotten ahead of itself
and we may need to get through earnings season.
I mean, I think there's so many people are just used to the market going up and up and up and up, but it could go sideways
for a while. That would be great. Even a three or 5% pullback would be perfectly good.
100%. So I think that, again, that's the timeframe thing. People that are intermediate
term maybe should be out. Longer term, I don't think you have to worry about anything yet.
Maybe it should be out, you know, longer term.
I don't think you have to worry about anything yet.
It's all about your time frame and your risk.
Yeah, if you're getting paid in July for August, you know, you don't want to be sitting in too many shares if we pull in even 2%.
And 2% is nothing.
That'll hurt.
So you got to make sure what you own and why.
It's so funny when I hear people talk about it on TV.
They're like, you know, we're going're gonna have a five or ten percent correctional makes a lot difference between a five percent or ten percent correction
but anyway not for i guess longer term individuals
brian i wanted to check and see i know you threw some comments in but i didn't know if you had
anything else on your mind or anything else on your radar that you've been doing in this market
or are you just kind of in agreeance with most of the
panelists up here? It's kind of just sit and wait, ride some, trim some. Yeah. So one of the things,
I think anyone that's heard me talk for a amount of time is like, I'm just going to tell you the
truth and what's going on. If I'm, if I'm killing it, I'll tell you. If I, if I'm not killing it, I will tell you as well. I'll also tell you that, you know,
a lot of people try to represent that they, you know, I knew what to do exactly when like,
there's a lot of confusion for traders. I know I, sometimes I get a little bit schizophrenic and
what I think I should do or shouldn't do. And I kind of got into that mode last week. So as I talked about on the spaces, when we started to go into that risk off mode in late February and selling really started to accelerate, and especially when Tariffgate got around, I made a conscious decision not to be as active in trading.
I decided I was going to be very slow and try to pick up some names that I
liked that I thought had longer term potential. And at the time, we talked about the idea that
this tariff issue was manmade and it could be unmanmade. And we were also talking about,
you know, I was very vocal about the fact that this is not the end of the American era,
that if you bet against the United States and the stock market, you're going to lose. So
I had a lot of positions that I accumulated in that drop and that I had in April,
and I'd just done nothing with them because they just keep going up and the market just keeps
looking technically good. But part of me is nervous, like, gosh, whenever I'm hands off,
whenever the market just works out the way it should without me having to be too involved in it, I go, that's a little too easy.
So last week we got into this spot where where we had that big reversal day.
I think was the day that that Trump talked about maybe firing Jerome Powell.
OK. Yep. And I finally said, OK, you know what?
I'm cutting these names. I've held them since April lows.
I've made some good money,
but I've been too complacent, too lackadaisical, and I cut them. And then the next day,
we started to roll over, but we held and the market started to firm back up. And I was like,
okay, I just cut these names. Should I get back in them? And I did. I started getting back in
those names again. Now today, I'm like, I don't know. Maybe I started getting back in those names again. Now today I'm like, I don't know, right? Maybe I shouldn't be in those names. So when I find myself a little bit
unsure, when I find myself overreacting, you know, like I start to go, eh, so I'm in a weird spot
right now. I'm not really sure what the market's going to do here. I do hear what Scott and Mike are saying, and I feel that too,
like I should be trimming a little bit. But I also feel like from a technical standpoint,
if I look at all my charts, I mean, we're not even near the eight EMA on the SPX or the Qs.
And so there's that push and pull in me of my emotions and the experience I've had for 40 years.
There's that push and pull in me of my emotions and the experience I've had for 40 years.
But the technicals are not telling me anything yet, at least on a daily basis, that says I should be out.
So it's a weird spot to be in.
I know most traders won't tell you that.
Can I just say something?
Can I say something?
Yeah, go ahead.
Let me just say it to that.
That's so true.
A healthy market is above the eight-day moving average.
So when you're that elevated from it, that's when I don't want to sometimes sell positions.
I'll sell some premium above it.
So if we do pull back towards the eight-day, you're not out of the position, but you got paid to sit in it by selling some premium.
I tend to do that usually with like the spies.
Like you said, it's pretty elevated from the eight-day.
You could pull back to the eight-day and still be a great market.
But if you're that extended from it with whatever you're in, sell some premium out higher. And worst case scenario, you were a little
conservative and they called you away. So yeah, it is one of those. The last few weeks have been
like that, I feel like. Weird spot, market's got to prove itself. Make sure you know what you own
and why and just be a little bit safer with your money.
And I try to put myself back in the mindset that I was at and where everyone was at when
we were at the bottom in April. And I'm shocked. I mean, people thought that the world was over
and it just went away and everything was fine. That's great. But sometimes when things happen
that easily, you just want to be a little bit more like, I like what you said, Scott, about maybe enjoying the summer.
I mean, I'm out in Southern California. The weather is beautiful. My kids are home.
I don't need to make money every single day. I don't need to be at the exact high of my P&L every day.
Like it's been a great run. And so, you know, either I'm going to start trimming in the next day or two or maybe do what Scott says, unless the market gets going higher.
But I do feel a little conflicted.
And usually when I'm conflicted, it means I should be getting smaller or getting a little bit more defensive.
Yes, I agree with that.
Your inner voice is telling you you're conflicted.
telling you you're conflicted there's not a lot of conviction so don't be a hero
There's not a lot of conviction, so don't be a hero.
and everyone should be thinking the same way with their stuff yeah absolutely brett we've got you
up here on stage i'd love to pull you into the conversation see if you have any thoughts around
uh this piece kind of where we're at in the market here and how you're approaching it
yeah i think um god there's been so many
good points made in this call so far. Uh, just, I've just enjoyed kind of hanging back and listen
to everyone's, you know, sort of take. I, I honestly kind of find myself in the midst here
a little bit, kind of in the middle of these viewpoints. Um, you know, for me, I tend to be
a little bit longer term, both in terms of, uh, how, when I'm investing and when I'm trading so you know
from those perspectives you know it's a couple months ago there was you know I would say a
bountiful amount of opportunities now up here we kind of keep grinding out these highs you kind of
it feels like momentum's waned a bit but technically nothing nothing wrong has really developed so
kind of as Brian was alluding to,
you kind of get in this little bit of an uncomfortable position.
On the one hand, it feels like not enough is working in your favor,
but then again, there's nothing really working against your favor.
So from that sort of perspective, from a trading perspective,
very little on the books at this point,
just kind of milking out the last little bits of a few different positions. Some things are setting up a little better than others on the, on the longer term front. But, you know,
I think one sort of, I think Scott mentioned selling upside, selling premium, selling covered
calls. I think that's a great, a great suggestion for me. If it's not a longer term trade, if it's a trade and kind of have been layering out of those as we go, if it's an
investment that's run a lot, I think selling that premium is a great idea. Again, you have to be
comfortable with parting ways with it if that comes to fruition. But other than that, that can
be a great way to collect some premium and sort of stifle a little bit of that volatility.
But I think when you're looking at where we are now, sitting on your hands is an okay thing to do.
I know we've talked a few times.
You guys talked a few times.
It's summer.
It's nice.
Get out.
Go do something else.
I think that's okay.
Set some alerts.
Look at what you want to own, where you want
to own it. And if we get that opportunity, maybe it's, you know, in the next few weeks, maybe it
takes a little longer, but, and maybe it doesn't come, but you know, there's a big difference.
I think, you know, you look at like the queues and they're up, it looks like eight out of the
last 12 or 13 weeks or so, which is pretty solid run, but there's been, you know, little dips and
pauses along the way. That's kind of given it enough time to recharge and reload, which is a pretty solid run, but there's been little dips and pauses along the way that's kind of given it enough time to recharge and reload, which is why it's up 40% from the
lows, which is a pretty insane move. If we were to get a 4% or 5% dip, I think that's a type of
dip that can refresh, especially when we're in these strong trends, these big bowl modes.
You pull 4% to 5% here on the spies and the queues gets us to retest both those breakout levels. It gets us into the 50 day or the 10
week, you know, again, assuming it's, you know, sometime in the near future, something like that,
I think would be incredibly healthy. But, you know, that doesn't mean that we're going to get
it next week. You know, a little chance to shake things up a little bit more when you have, you
know, this week's kind of quiet, we only have a, earnings are picking up, but next week's got,
you know, I think four of the mag seven names, you get Visa, MasterCard, some more of the tech
names. Um, and you get a ton of econ next week. We have PC, GDP, jobs, the fed. Um, so maybe
something in there can rock the boat a little bit and get us, get us some of these dips and,
and have some of these names reset.
Because there's a big difference when you're looking at things from a longer-term perspective.
There's a big difference of buying something like Microsoft at $350, trading at 25 times versus up here north of $500.
It's rallied like I think it's gone straight up from the lows.
There's been like one week where it was down and it was down like 1%. And it's trading at 35, 36 times earnings. So it's kind of a straight up from the lows. There's been one week where it was down, and it was down 1%.
And it's straightened at 35, 36 times earnings.
So it's kind of a big difference between the two.
And now you're just kind of in a wait-and-see mode.
Or that's where I'm at, at least.
Are you hedging here kind of like what Scott was saying, Brett?
When you look at this and you say, okay, maybe we're talking, maybe we're getting extended, but it's not really
overbought. There's not really like the scared factor right now. I mean, VIX is not popping up.
What, what's your approach? I mean, I don't think hedging would be a bad idea, especially if you're
looking to buy protection. I mean, vol is cheaper now. We have run a lot. So there is that potential
where we do, you know, where they shake the tree a little bit and we do pull in. I mean, vol is cheaper now. We have run a lot. So there is that potential where we do,
you know, where they shake the tree a little bit and we do pull in. I mean, I'm not really engaged
in active hedging. Like I said, I've trimmed some names a little bit like Microsoft is a good
example. I just kind of referenced them. You know, you're buying a good company at a good price,
but when you start to get up 35, 36, 37 times, I don't know, it's really a
good price anymore. For me, it's an opportunity to lighten up a little bit and to have that cash
ready to go and redeploy either into opportunities that are more attractively valued, maybe something
like a sales force, even though technically it doesn't look all that pretty, but its fundamentals
are, or its valuation fundamentals are a bit more attractive or if you just want to
have it in cash on the sideline and ready to go when there is an opportunity
and from that perspective that's where I'm
I'm finding my trading account just sort of riding the last
last bits of smaller positions I've cut down over time like an uber is a good
example still have some uber left but really just kind of waiting for that
opportunity to come back along,
whether it's broad market-based
or individual name-based.
I'm still just kind of raising cash
when I can, looking to redeploy later.
Yeah, that makes perfect sense.
Yeah, I look at this and I say,
well, either time consolidation
is one piece of it,
a pullback is one piece of it.
You know, something.
A little rollover here, aren't we, Scott?
Yeah, yeah.
This daily candle is not going to look too pretty, by the way.
We just got below the opening price here.
Yeah.
Google is still looking relatively strong compared to the rest, though.
Yeah, listen. Amazon's at the high of the day also.
So entries and exits matter.
I just, yeah, I get it.
Yeah, it's not a perfect and it's not saying the bears, oh my God, you know, bulls are in trouble.
No, Apple was looking strong this morning and it definitely gave some of it off.
Meta was another one that was acting pretty strong this morning.
Okay, that's falling off a little too.
Yeah, it's a very specific trade like i i was long google i'm i i'm out of google today you can mark my word it doesn't mean it might not act well in earnings
i just have my trade happened for google and amazon's still my bigger one because it has
till next week i'm trimming some of that um apple the leash is getting smaller here um
trimming some of that um apple the leash is getting smaller here um but i also i i put on a
lot of spy hedges that's helping absorb some of this down move so it's giving me a little bit more
room to to stay but again look through all your positions and see like even on my power plays
product i just you know i had some a third trailers on things that were up a lot i'm like
why am i going to hold the third here let's just get rid of it the move happened no need to sit you know if i you know if i'm doing in my in my
swing account in my trading account i might as well do it for the power plays um portfolio
of product that we have
anywho it's uh yeah it's 347 um just take a little care and just you know what i always say
what's the reason you're in a trade?
Don't count the money.
And if the reason changes, if you're in something because there's a bull flag and you expect
it to break out, you know, and all of a sudden it breaks below the four-day support of a
bull flag, then that reason changed, you're out.
If you're in something because it's above the eight-day and it's still above it, then
it hasn't changed.
If you're in something because you give it to the 21-day, that's different too.
So that's just why are you in the trade
and has that reason changed?
Yeah, I appreciate you for coming, Scott.
All right.
Appreciate you guys.
I got to jump back on the alpha teams of ETF.
And yeah, this is, it's interesting.
Sometimes they'll get people out.
It's like pre-fed day.
They get you out two days before
and then, you know, Google kills it and then everything gaps up and it's back. Sometimes they'll get people out. It's like pre-Fed Day. They get you out two days before, and then Google kills it,
and then everything gaps up, and it's back to where it was.
So, again, how do you want to play the game, everybody?
I'm a little lighter.
Yeah, very true.
Great thoughts there, Scott.
Appreciate you joining on these Mondays.
Make sure you do follow Scott there.
You see his account right here on top.
Scott, where can they find you the easiest off of this platform
when you do your Monday thing, don't you, your Monday morning?
I do a thing called the 630 Club every day right on Twitter.
It's for free.
It's every day, 630, 20 minutes.
It's kind of like a brief morning call, what I'm looking at,
what the keys of the day are,
where do I think there could be active cash flow for the week? And usually people who watch that for a consistent
amount of time, they wind up joining the alpha team, which is where I'm at all day long, where
you get to see my positions live, be on our radio here, like same way we are here. But it's like a
group that's there every day, all day. And most people have been on for like five years, 10 years,
12 years, you know, and I've been doing it for 30. And I think I probably have 10 years left, maybe.
You know, so but if you don't want to, you know, a lot of people don't like to pay for things and
resources, that's cool, too, then just tune into the 630 Club. Or I have this subscribe button for
Red Dog Mindset, which is my own company that I founded. Just the mindset behind execution on the
X's and O's of trading, or in a lot of other careers you
know it's kind of more like a life performance coach basing scenario which it's pretty cheap
and i do a morning workout five the 25 20 where a lot of people over actually a few hundred people
now are joining me in the morning it's pretty cool and i you know talk about life listen to
music sweat for 20 minutes in a sauna some people think's weird. Some people won't miss a day. It's all up to you. But I appreciate you, Scott. Thanks for tuning in and thanks for giving me the platform.
And hopefully you guys are doing well. And if you haven't been, just realize what you've been
doing wrong and just look at yourself in the mirror and say, Hey, it's my fault. It's not
the market. It's not the situation. It's maybe I need to change my approach and figure things out
and be a little less stubborn either which way, whichever way it is.
I spoke to a lot of people this weekend that are very miserable.
I'm like, what are you so miserable?
They've been shorting the market for the last two months because they don't like Trump.
They've been shorting the market because they thought we were going to invade Taiwan.
They've been shorting the market because of this or that.
I'm like, but we're above the AIM 21 day.
Why are you shorting the market? Like, I don't know. I'm know i'm like okay well then you really shouldn't be putting money to work if
you don't know why you're doing it but anyway um and then if things change we changed you know like
like you said back in april looked at the world was gonna end and then all of a sudden boom you
know they took off the tariffs we gapped up we held the gap and we started a whole new active
sequence and you know the end of april at some point we get a big reversal day you know to the downside you know to the outside day bearish
engulfing and instead of bouncing back and repairing over two days you know you get some
follow through to the downside which shows you that the active bears have a little bit more power
so you don't you don't have to put things on so fast which like they get they tried that last
week if you remember on i think on tuesday you know the bears revert you know the have to put things on so fast. They tried that last week, if you remember.
I think on Tuesday, you know, the bears, you know,
the big bearish engulfing candles in the IWM, the XBI.
Strength was sold in the spies and the queues.
And then literally, you know, the news happened.
We held the 21 day and then we went up every day since.
One of those times, it's not going to happen that way.
And until then, just, you know, try and let the market tell you how to do it instead of thinking this isn't going to end well because that's not a trading strategy.
Wise words from Red Dog right there.
We appreciate you, Scott, for joining on these Mondays.
Let's keep the conversation rolling around here with some of the other panelists we haven't gotten to yet.
Sam Saad, I know you've been waiting patiently up here.
We'll go over to you next, and we'll make sure we hit uh gary and logical yeah uh i mean was looking at some earnings numbers coming up as far as estimation goes also looking at some financials uh on fiscal.ai
i'm actually somewhat bullish uh tesla coming into earnings only because their energy storage
business is about 15% of the revenue.
And it's been accelerating sequentially for a few quarters now. It grew at about 67% last quarter.
And like I mentioned, it is 15% of the revenue. But if it does continue to accelerate, which
I wouldn't be surprised considering the contracts they've signed up abroad for the energy storage
business, then that could continue to push up the overall revenue from a generalized perspective.
Also on top of that, this is actually a seasonally strong quarter, not the strongest quarter.
The strongest quarter is actually six months from now.
But this is a seasonally strong quarter compared to the last few years that they've reported
in the second quarter of
the year. So the comps aren't so great considering last year at $22.5 billion, but we have been
seeing some inflection, some good data as far as DMV registrations goes for Tesla or EV vehicles
in China. So there's a possibility that that might have bottomed and if that does
that might bring the numbers overall up for last quarter tesla is one of those stocks where uh as
you guys were saying you know the fundamentals are not super important uh but uh once the momentum
is there the stock can just go right so i am somewhat bullish to price action on Tesla coming out of the earnings.
I have added a small position to the portfolio, might continue to add it in case maybe we
get some weakness or whatever it is.
But as far as that, not really looking to do anything too crazy in the portfolio.
I mean, as you guys were mentioning last April, things were just, the world was basically
going to end according to a lot of people. What we're seeing today, in my opinion, is a lot of liquidity getting injected into the
system, not necessarily from a money printing standpoint that we saw in 2020 and 2021,
but more of a fiscal perspective. So if you have the SEC or the FINRA, which is a subsidiary of the SEC,
basically bring down the pattern day trading rules from $25,000 to $2,000, that will encourage some
traders to start trading with smaller accounts. So as it stands today, is that if you day trade
five or more times in an account with less than $25,000 in cash, then you can be basically,
they're going to suspend your trading if you do that for, I don't know how long, what is it,
like nine days or something. But if they enable this rule, then that means that essentially any
account with more than $2,000 can circumvent these rules. So that will probably encourage a bit more
volatility in the market,
the up and down direction, especially since with an account that small, a lot of people are likely
going to play options to grow a small account. And then on top of that, you have basically a
bunch of politicians trying to get Jerome Powell out of office by questioning all this stuff that
he's doing, $2.5 billion renovations in his office in the Federal Reserve.
I mean, I don't know how much validity that is.
Maybe it is, maybe it isn't.
But clearly, they're trying to make these situations look a lot worse
than it actually is.
You had Howard Lucknick last weekend saying that the U.S. could save $700 billion
or basically blaming it on the Fed that the
US is basically spending an extra $700 billion in interest per year.
And there was actually a calculation that I did and also actually I saw some people modeling
it before is that if they did, if the Fed did reduce rates by 2% every single year,
we're sitting on a $35 trillion deficit, then that would mean that
2% of that or take a 2% savings, that would be $700 billion a year.
Is that going to exactly be one-to-one?
Probably not, because if you save $700 billion, the government's probably going to turn around
and spend it somehow.
But it does appear we're trying to grow ourselves out of this debt issue as opposed to trying
to reduce the amount
of spending, which was the incentive coming into the year and also coming into the election.
That was basically the whole concept there. And I'm not going to take sides or anything,
but it is interesting to see how we completely reversed on what the government was trying to do
back in April. And today, now we're just trying to grow ourselves out of it.
As far as global money supply goes, I mean is just expanding it's so not not even from just a technical perspective as far as the
market goes where we're trading above the 21 ema trading above the 8 ema but also on top of that
like almost every single central bank around the entire world is printing money in some way in some
way or another they're either cutting rates or they're buying bonds, whatever it is.
Liquidity is expanding, and then you're getting these pro-crypto speculative assets being pushed
by the government or policies, whatever they are.
It's just, I wouldn't say we're in a peak of a 2021 bubble, but we're certainly going
to head there to continue doing what we're doing, where it's all probably going to burst
at some point.
But now, to call that now is just very difficult to do. I'm not a technical
expert, but even the technicians on here are saying like, this isn't like a screaming short,
the markets are going to crash. It just means things got to cool off a little bit.
And I would even say is that the RSI's aren't even hot, which is an indicator that I do look at.
even say is that the r size aren't even hot which is an indicator that i do look at but on top of
that i would say that a lot of the momentum in the market has been pushed by a lot smaller names
small and mid-cat names in the last few weeks we have the earnings coming up for the mag 7 because
starting this week we googled tesla on wednesday and then next week we have basically the rest of
the mag 7. we already had netflix and so, but Netflix was already trading at a pretty crazy valuation coming
into the earnings. So it just pulled back to where I was trading a couple of days before
that, which wasn't really a big deal. So to short the market here is pretty tough, but
at the same time, one of the positions that I had was the Steril labs and then things
up like 20% today, extremely strong. Everyone will not everyone while she was trying to sell this stock down to 55
bucks last April.
And that's when I was buying.
And today is what I'm trimming.
Cause the thing basically ran up about a hundred and 25%.
I mean, the story might continue, but my model showed me that it, there
would be a lot of assumptions baked into this valuation that it
is today why it's up 20 today i have no idea i couldn't find a single thing but it was interesting
to see a lot of the data center stocks basically pumped this morning immediately at the open
and then certain names uh like nebius has seriously pulled back from being up i think it was about like
up 10 15 and now it's in the red and i haven't checked on core weave but
a lot of other names as well have pulled back considerably a lot of small cap and big cap
stocks so there's definitely a lot of profit taking happening here obviously the market's a
little bit cautious obviously we're all cautious here in this board i mean you know there's
definitely certain plays but it just requires to be more tactical i was quite bullish china uh
coming into this week, and I still am
bullish China, but I had to reduce some exposure based on the leaps that I did have open because
they basically ran up 30 to 40 percent last week. And those charts are looking pretty hot. But,
you know, we can we can see it continue. And if it does, I'm cool with it. And if it doesn't,
then I'll stop myself out at a decent profit. And that's just the way that I'm playing it from a
short term to medium term perspective here.term-wise, not really doing anything. There really isn't anything to do. The
time to make moves on a long-term portfolio on a dramatic basis was last April. That's when a lot
of buying was happening. Today, it's tough. I'm forced to be more tactical in this situation and
start long-term positions. Maybe something from the short to medium-term, I might swing. But other
than that, not going to do it in size. Definitely going to do it in size but we'll see we'll see
anyways i think that's really all i got to say for the markets uh any comments i mean i'm not
really going to comment open door like the thing is just uh it's a trap in both directions um i
when i saw it go up about 100 percent, earlier last week from like 50 cents or 80
cents all the way up to a dollar 50.
I posted about it, did some due diligence on Twitter and I was basically called a pumper.
And it was like, I mean, I don't know how it could be a pumper for one.
I'm not even in it.
And two, um, I'm basically saying the valuations don't justify it, but it is, it looked like
it was setting up for a short termterm short squeeze, and we got it.
I'm not going to say that I have a forecast or a fortune teller, whatever it is, but the sentiment was really bad in the stock, and it was heavily shorted, and it ran up for no reason with valuations not even covering it, and it obviously continued.
reason with valuations not even covering it and it obviously continued and then you saw a day like
today where it was up 100% pulled back man I would not be surprised this thing had to double digits
and I'm not going to say I'm not in it I am little than I am not going to advise on it but it just it
feels like this is one of those companies like GameStop or AMC in, where a lot of the specular community went along this thing.
And a lot of fund managers got stopped out who were trying to short it.
I don't know why anyone would try to short their stock right now.
Like there's other stocks in the stock market to try to short it in size.
I'm looking at the short interest in this thing on FinTel.io.
It looks like people are just trying to take all the shorts, short shares available on
the prime brokerages and trying to take short this company and you want to stand in front of a speeding train
go ahead uh i would not advocate that but i will also not right jump onto a speeding train that's
heading toward a ledge so it is interesting to see this kind of dynamics in this market
starting to see it happen a bit more often and then obviously starting to see a lot of value plays,
not finding any momentum at all.
And when that tells me it is completely risk on,
in my opinion,
but it is not as easy as it was a couple of months ago.
You just,
you have to go tactical and put on extra risk in order to do really well in
this market.
Unless you,
unless,
you know,
that's something you obviously do full time. I know a lot of you guys do it a lot and i congratulate you on
that but you can't sit here and tell me that this is easy like this is hard to find certain trades
in here today more of a medium term perspective than it was a couple of months ago but you know
i digress we'll see who knows what could happen we'll be up another five percent we'll see we did close the day there by the way appreciate you sam
we did close definitely was not the strongest of close we've closes we've had over the last
couple days and weeks but it was okay i saw ally joining us up here um well i see a lot of thumbs
up there i don't know if there's something there, but let's keep us moving here. Logical. How are you doing?
And Gary, and then I saw Ali joined us up here.
We've got a nice stack panel.
What a great day.
Um, I do want to go out Logical quickly.
Uh, make sure you're following all the speakers up here.
We do appreciate all of them for joining in.
A lot of great people have already come in so far.
A lot more conversations will come up.
This entire space was recorded, so you can go back and listen to it and follow, you know,
all the great people.
We appreciate you and Logical. great people. We appreciate you.
And Logical, now we're over to you.
Yeah, so, sorry, I just raised my hand so I can go next because I got to leave in a little bit.
But, you know, I think it's an interesting spot because we've had the crazy momentum run in a lot of these names over the last week or so.
And I think that, you know, while Sam, I think it's all about the eyes of the beholder in
this market.
I think it's all about the opportunity set that you're personally looking at.
You know, I don't necessarily disagree that there are less opportunities today, given that a lot of the tech names, the popular growth names, a lot of these crypto stuff have run like crazy.
But I can't stress this enough.
There's a small percent of the total market in terms of number of names, not necessarily in terms of percent of market cap.
But yeah, I mean, like I heard everyone else talk about the Microsoft and 30 times like,
yeah, I'm not chasing that either.
What I will say to that, though, is if you do pay attention to options flow,
they keep selling puts in huge size on a lot of these names, which makes me feel
like there's still a floor on this market in terms of how much we can pull back.
And so I think that generally speaking,
dips will probably be bought.
I don't think that, look, you just came out of a 20%
quick correction bear market.
Historically speaking, you're not gonna get another one
of those that quickly.
And we keep printing money.
I think Sam said, you know, liquidity is expanding
and that's very true.
We went from we're going to save money to we're going to print the most money, do the biggest tax cut in history.
We have rate cuts coming and they're going to be aggressive.
So it's kind of hard to sit there and be like, oh, I'm going to raise cash or I'm going to hold cash. And, you know, maybe in the near term, specifically, if you're being tactical, fine, fine.
term specifically if you're being tactical fine fine but you can't you cannot hold cash that big
in size i think um when they're literally devaluing the dollar every single day and they're
inflating your dollars away and so you have to understand that as you know the number of dollars
goes up the best hedge against inflation are dynamic magic management teams in stocks because they're able to modify and
figure out how do we keep our margins intact uh revenues growing because you know the dollars are
growing and yeah so you know they their profits are going to continue to uh you know increase so
i i think you know stocks are the most dynamic in that way um and a lot of stocks still look
really good so i i think it
comes down to your opportunity set for me personally i'm extremely long i have increased
my holdings again today um and people are gonna be like dude what are you doing it's the opposite
of what you should be doing um but i don't i don't focus on the same 30 to 50 tickers that all of
twitter is focused on i've been taking a very different approach. I've been putting my fundamental hat back on
because, you know, this is a bull market.
And so to me, I think there's a lot of opportunities
that have yet to even run or catch up.
So I made a post today that's saying
I'm in my bottom fishing phase.
And so, you know, I think that could be dangerous
if we're in a bear market
because what's cheap can get cheaper.
But we're clearly in a bull market that maybe is ready for a pullback.
Fine.
Ultimately, I think we're headed higher.
So for me, I want to be in the places that have relatively underperformed to a great extent compared to a lot of these high flyers.
compared to a lot of these high flyers.
I do not touch any of these high momentum names.
I do not touch any of these high momentum names.
Yeah, I might have some of these crypto exposures because the crypto
ecosystem and market is just getting a ton of support.
I made a post yesterday that I'm still so bullish on Ethereum because,
I mean, it's going to encapsulate the USDC phenomenon and stable coins
because that's on the Ethereum blockchain.
It's going to encapsulate, you know, the layer twos that they're building to build more DeFi apps and
change the way payments are processed.
Coinbase, for example, has the base L2 on Ethereum.
So whatever ends up winning, Ethereum is definitely the biggest blockchain in terms of market
cap utilization.
Some will say Solana is better in
processing, blah, blah, blah, but it has less security. It's less established. So Ethereum
still looks very good from here. You know, you're going to get pullbacks along the way. I mean,
we just went up 40% in like a week or two, right? Like to expect that we're just going to go
straight up to the moon or whatever. No, but you know, Ethereum just broke out and the backdrop's
getting more bullish, not less bullish.
And people are still very offside in positioning. They're not overweight these things at all.
So, you know, on the Ethereum, you know, maybe my highest momentum things that I hold are probably there on the crypto side,
which I probably have like 15-ish, 20 percent, 20 percent exposure now.
I don't know, somewhere around there, maybe a little more,
but a lot of the exposure I have are in things that nobody, um,
is, you know, really wanting to touch or think about or look at.
I think that right now, um,
speculators are still as short as they've ever been the Russell. Um,
they are, which in a situation
where we're going to get lower rates
and KRE, for example,
makes up a big chunk of the regional banks,
which should benefit biotechs,
which are long duration assets,
which should benefit from lower rates.
And these are all things
that are going to help improve
the equity investing in small cap land.
So when I look there,
I don't buy the shitcos because there's plenty of
them. But I buy the companies that have extremely good fundamentals and don't actually need any sort
of lower rates. But I think that the reason why a lot of these stocks are not catching the bids
they should be and not seeing the kind of momentum that we're seeing in the high popular growth
stocks is because the general backdrop for small caps are still down in the gutter.
Positioning is still extremely offside and negative.
But I like investing in places where the positioning is offside because to me it
feels like while the sentiment, while the backdrop will improve, sentiment will
improve, technicals will improve and people who are off sides are going to be
forced buyers. So here's a situation where I, you know,
like people talk about, Oh, well, you know,
I want to be in the high short interest names because I can catch a short
squeeze. Yep.
That works because everybody is positioned negatively on the stock.
Well, what do you do when an entire sector is the most shorted?
I think it doesn't take a lot to get it moving.
And eventually investors are going to look at some of these assets and think, well, damn,
that thing is cheap. And right now people are talking about, well, I don't know where
to allocate my money. Like this thing is up 500%. It's like, yeah, I wouldn't touch that
thing either. But I just keep finding so many good ideas. I mean, even in software land,
which by the way, is definitely not a joke of a sector. Like some might believe, you know, saw a small caps are, for example,
but we're talking about like very high quality software names like, um,
GitLab, Okta. Um, I mean, I have a few others, but I mean,
those are the ones that people probably recognize. I mean, those things are,
I'm bottom fishing personally, because I look at the numbers and I think,
that's way too cheap. Um, so I'm looking for names that can easily re-rate 50% or more 100% or more and that's the kind of person I am I have my fundamental hat on right now
uh I think that the market backdrop is still very uh good for equities so I'm not necessarily
looking up looking for the catch-up trades but but that's basically what it ends up amounting to.
And yeah, I would be definitely taking profits if I was in these high momentum flyers that just went up a bazillion percent and your portfolio moved like 30% in a month or whatever.
I would not touch those with 10-foot pole, but I think there's a ton of fundamental value in this market.
I think there's a ton of fundamental value in this market.
It's just not getting any love because everybody wants to own the open doors and the iron Bitcoin miners and stuff like that.
I think having a healthy mix of both types of allocations is probably good for a portfolio.
But I've been more so shifting away from the high momentum technical leaders into what I think are better bottom
fishing fundamental purchases.
So my portfolio is made up of things that I feel that I can fundamentally
justify and using some sort of signals as like, hey, maybe this is the bottom.
If we see any sort of meaningful options flow come in after a stock is down 20,
30, 40 percent from its recent highs highs there's a lot of those um
still in the market so i think that this market still with the breadth that it's had has not been
that great um i think that it can expand the breadth and show you that there's still a ton
of opportunity in this market but it's one of those years where you're gonna have to go look
because you don't want to buy palantir 150 or 50 or whatever it is. I'm not saying that won't go to two 25 or whatever it is,
because that's just the kind of market it is.
But there is a lot of opportunity.
I always talk about those.
Anyways,
I'll pass it on.
Appreciate you logical as always.
I may actually bring it over to Allie next.
I want to get your thoughts,
Allie.
We appreciate everyone joining.
I'll be coming to Gary right after.
But Allie, first of all, how are you doing?
I don't know if you have any thoughts on the market that you want to lead off with.
I know we have Powell speaking tomorrow, which was surprising to me because it's a Fed blackout period.
So I didn't know how that one happened.
I don't know if you explained that.
I put out a tweet last week.
I was like, all right, guys, we're back in blackout period.
No more Fed speakers next week.
And I was quickly proven wrong.
Biff, what's going on in your world?
Yeah, no, I mean, interesting to see Powell speaking.
I think because we're in the blackout period, we're not going to hear much on monetary policy.
But obviously, if he talks about any economic indicator, particularly jobs, inflation, it's going to be closely looked at. But I think it's been interesting to see how
CME Fed futures just continue to keep changing. And now the odds of just one cut are increasing
while two cuts are decreasing. And we have various Wall Street firms coming out and
rejiggering their guidance for when we could see rate cuts.
I believe Bank of America now sees no cuts in 2025, looking ahead to 2026.
Morgan Stanley has the same stance as well.
So it feels like all the signs are pointing to a higher for longer environment
as economic data is coming strong.
And then, of course, on the inflation side, we continue to be a little sticky there.
We haven't seen the pass through, the tariff pass through onto the consumer as aggressively as economists had thought we could. That's not to say we haven't seen it at all. There definitely has been signs with apparel, footwear, furniture that we're starting to see some i saw an interesting uh wall street journal article about amazon um i think
they published it yesterday it was talking about i don't know if you saw but i was talking about
them raising prices on a lot of their cheaper items and i didn't see data on what they consider
a cheaper rider item versus a more expensive item but yeah i was saying average prices this
year for cheaper items on amazon for like whatever is up 5.2%. Yeah. Right. On like essentials, right? That's what it was more saying. Yeah.
Yeah. Which, which is interesting. And I've been really focused on this bifurcation of the consumer
when you have your high income earners, your stock market investors, these are the consumers
that the banks talked about last week saying that, well, the
consumer is fine. They're resilient. But then you do have these lower income consumers that have
been really struggling, that have felt the weight of inflation. And I'm curious as we get deeper and
deeper into earnings season, how that affects some of these more consumer-facing names that are
exposed to these types of consumers. We did have Domino's reporting this morning, and they saw stuff like our pizza,
lifting seams for sales,
and increase in delivery as well,
but we still are struggling on the earnings front there.
So, and even looking at a name like Chipotle,
which I remember Chipotle was always high-flying,
there's so much bullish optimism on that stock.
And if you take a look at year to date,
I think we're down pretty significantly. So that's one thing I'm focused on this earning
season is just the bifurcation of the US consumer. And at what point are we going to start to see
some cracks under the surface if we do have a lower income consumer that is continuing to
struggle here? So there's that element of things. I believe you guys were talking about
some of the market frothiness in the market, particularly when we look at Open Door and a
lot of these meme stock names. And I think that's a story I want to pursue a little bit more because
you have different opinions on Wall Street when it comes to how frothy we are, how overvalued we
are in certain names. I think it's clear to say that we are in an overstretched market,
but the general consensus seems to be that stocks could still move higher from here.
Individual company names can still move higher. And AI is really at the core of all of the bullish optimism. And I don't think we've even scratched the surface on what AI could do on both the B2B level along with the consumer level. So I tend to agree
that stocks will continue to go higher. However, there certainly is going to be a lot of volatility
in the meantime. We have the seasonality factors heading into the doldrums of summer, as I like to
call it. And then, of course, depending on monetary policy, what we see with the rest of
earnings season and the tariff and trade deadline, August 1st. And right before August 1st,
we're going to have that jobs report as well. Or I think it's on August 1st, actually, is when we're
going to have the jobs report. So I think that'll be a big day for markets to just get a gut check
on where we are with the economy and where potentially could be heading if
we do see those higher tariffs go into effect. And how long can that be sustained too? Because
Howard Lutnick said that August 1st is when the tariffs are going into effect, but that doesn't
mean we will stop our conversations with trade partners. So let's say we don't get a deal with
the EU and then those tariffs go into effect on August 1st.
And then we're continuing to talk with the EU to try and get a deal.
At what point when those tariffs are being implemented and going through the system, at what point is that going to really start to show up in pricing?
Because we haven't seen that yet. That doesn't mean it's not coming.
We know the tariff impacts are typically on an 18th month lag.
So there's still a lot of near-term risks and the volatility and choppiness in this
market, I think all investors need to be aware of because I think we will see some chop when
we look at just how stretched valuations are on certain names and how, even though I don't
think we have a market that's priced to perfection,
we're priced pretty well at this point. So there's always that fragility there of what happens when the shoe drops. So a lot of things I have my eye on, but those stick out.
Another one that I've also thought has been interesting,
that I just don't know if people, there was a point last week.
The big topic was,
is Powell going to get fired?
There was this supposed letter that was waved around at some point.
I don't know.
There seems to be two or three people in different places in government that
are continuously throwing different.
Well,
we'll say crap up the wall to see if anything sticks.
But I'm curious on kind of that whole Powell situation. Every
single day, they're reiterating they're not going to fire Powell, but we're trying different
random stuff here. Just, you know, more of the market's reaction to it. You throw the
same headlight at it, something in 10 different ways, the market's going to stop caring about it.
But last week, we did move pretty aggressively off of, you know, some fears there. So I don't
know. It's a weird spot. It's a weird spot where he's
continuously said the exact same thing. And I'm like, I just, I don't know why we're not over
the story yet. I totally agree, Evan. Yeah, I had this same reaction. I think it was the fact
that we had multiple sources come out and reputable sources too from Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal,
saying that he wants to pursue this aggressively. And to me,
what stood out was just the bond market reaction. We saw yields spike. We eventually came back down.
And right now, I mean, the 30-year yield were well below 5%, 10-year yield well below 4.4%.
So that's all well and good. But last week, we did not see that. We did see a little bit of panic in the bond market and equities as
well. But I remember when that broke, I turned to my editor and I said, well, hasn't he said this
a thousand times? And we don't care. Why all of a sudden do we care now? And I think it's just a
combination of how sensitive the bond market is and the general general markets are at the current moment and
taking Trump at his word, but also balancing that with realistic outcomes. And I do think there's a
little bit of fear that there could be a loophole in there where he could push Powell out. Powell
has consistently reiterated that he will not be leaving his position, that he wants to stay,
that it's against the law.
But you just, you never know with this administration. So everyone I've talked to has said that is definitely a big risk to the market because it just throws off the whole
notion of Fed independence and the stability of the Federal Reserve. But by and large,
this is an institution that is really, really hard to
interfere with and mess with. So long term, I don't think this is the biggest risk, especially
with Powell's term up next year. But in the interim, if we keep hearing these headlines,
it does lead to a shaky market. We're definitely going to get more of those headlines. That is one thing I'm fairly
certain on, but I'm thinking the market will stop caring about it. We shall see on that one. Are
there any data points this week you're watching? When I was looking, I don't think there was too
many. Obviously, the initial jobless claims come in every single Thursday. How much should we be
paying attention to data of that frequency? I don't know, but that's not for me to decide.
Is there any other stuff you're watching this week? Yeah, I think there's some housing data
out this week, but really it's earnings, right? I mean, we have the start of the hyperscalers,
the MAG7 names of Alphabet. I think earnings is going to be the focus point now,
probably even a little bit more so than trade, Because for a while there, it was all about trade
tariffs. Now we just have this whole new element in the market. And as long as companies are
continuing to beat, I think we'll be okay. However, I will say that even though entering
earnings, the bar has been set low, investor expectations are high because we are in this
market where you have stretched positions, you have really high
valuations. We're trading at 22 forward earnings with S&P 500. And because of that, investors
really want to see these companies significantly beat and raise their guidance too. And you can
look at Netflix as a prime example for that. We had a beat on both the top and bottom lines.
We raised guidance. And yet on Friday, we saw the stock fall 5%.
And maybe they wanted a bigger raise.
Maybe they wanted to see a little bit more from this company.
And valuation concerns was probably paramount for Netflix heading into their earnings report.
And you saw that in the reaction to shares.
So I think that the misses are going to be punished a lot more than
they typically are within this current market environment. And even the winners, you could see
them maybe be punished a little bit depending on their valuation levels and how quote unquote
overpriced they are from the investor perspective. So this earnings season is going to be pretty
interesting. I'm excited to see what happens, especially since the data keeps being revised higher for how much we could see
earnings growth year over year. FactSet has it now at 5.6%. That's up from the prior 5%.
So again, just all eyes on earnings. I think that's going to be the big focus point now
for the foreseeable future. All right, separate question.
I need this from a post. Was Google green on Friday? This could be anyone for down in the chat.
I believe it was, but I could be wrong there. If it was, this would be an eighth day in a row.
Anyone can confirm that before I post that. Thank you, Ali. I appreciate you. I want to keep us
moving here. Definitely feel free to jump back into the conversation. But I want to make sure
we get over to Gary as well, who's been hanging out here super patiently as always we appreciate
you gary for being here how are you doing you watching i'm patient because i'm just the dumbest
one on this panel that's that's the reality i don't deserve to be uh put in front of anybody
but i will tell you going back to the beginning of the space brian's right time frame matters
i don't need to pay myself monthly quarterly quarterly like Scott does. So I'm a
much longer term trader. When I said buy NVIDIA at 140, I got laughed at on this space. I said
it would hit 160 at some point in time this year. It did. So my way of buying and selling is not
like most on this panel. I will add to it, Evan, and I know Stock Talk is on here, Apple,
for the last 15 years, you've only had eight times
where you could buy this under the 50-day weekly SMA. I've got tens of thousands of shares. Full
disclosure, my portfolio was up six figures today. I'm sitting on this position. Would I buy it here?
I'm not buying it because I've got tens of thousands of shares. They'll get AI right.
I've got tens of thousands of shares.
They'll get AI right.
For long-term holders, I think making $120 billion in earnings over a year, they have
money to buy, even if they don't have the talent right now.
I think they'll get it right.
Tesla, long-term.
I learned my lesson on Tesla.
I bought a Model 3 in 2018.
I traded this stock.
During these times, it goes parabolic. It's sitting there waiting to go
again. And we hear Elon is sleeping on the floor of the factory. I think it's getting ready. I think
the street's going to focus on some car sales and stuff like that. But long term, that doesn't
matter. Google, the street's going to focus on search. It's trading at 19 times earning when
the S&P is at 24 times earnings.
I personally use Perplexity and Grok.
I use Google every now and then, but Gmail is still my Gmail.
I watch like four to six hours a day of freaking YouTube.
Google is a great buy.
It's not a dead company. I added to my Palo Alto Networks position when it dipped under 200, and they're just
going to get stronger today
with the Sentinel purchase. And I'm waiting for my four hour algorithm to trigger on CrowdStrike
again so I can buy more of that. Hey, just real quick. I think they denied this Sentinel One
acquisition. They always deny it though. I mean, there was a, there was a deny of the deny though,
or like a non-comment from Sentinel One later too. It's a, it's a whole saga.
I listen, I would buy Sentinel because I do think that maybe that puts the bidding up there,
even though it's up, I think, 10% or something today. Cybersecurity, my point is cybersecurity
is a position that you want to have in your portfolio, 100%. I am not a short-term trader,
but I'll go over some short- term. We got QuantumScape,
which I think is the most interesting one to report this week. I don't think they're going
to say anything, but this freaking stock is up 138 percent this week. Hey, Gary. Yeah. Real quick,
just before you move on a little bit, because you're saying cybersecurity, what are your
thoughts on Okta? It's very cheap here. I love fucking Okta. Okta, full disclosure, I'm an affiliate of Seeking Alpha, which has this AlphaPix portfolio.
I bought Okta as part of that AlphaPix portfolio.
And then I remembered my company used freaking Okta when I was actually employed.
And so I talked to some of the cybersecurity guys and they said, Okta is incredible.
So I bought more of it.
It was, for me, it was an add to your, you know, cut your losers, add to your winners.
I think it lost for a while, but it's been on a run.
And honestly, as cybersecurity goes, I think that's a great one.
I just don't know the details of it.
I don't remember the discussion with the IT folks, but I trust them.
They said, of it. I don't remember the discussion with the IT folks, but I trust them. They said,
buy it. I've used it for the last, I don't know, five to seven years at my workplace. And we use
it for ID verification, like if you're logging into internal server stuff or whatever. So I think
it's a no brainer. It's going to be around. You are way more tapped into that world than I am.
And you are way more tapped into that world than I am.
And from a small cap perspective, I would say listen to logical about that one.
I think it's a great one.
Again, if you don't have any cybersecurity, I'm a large cap tech guy.
So I want Palo Alto.
I want CrowdStrike because anything that shuts down the world, I want to buy it.
I don't care what the valuation is.
I want to buy it.
And Okta, same kind of thing. Also, its valuation is so cheap. It's not that it's not
bad. It's cheap as hell. Recently had a bunch of November call flow come through, which was
interesting. And if you look at the chart, it undercut and is now rallying around the 200 days.
So it undercut the 200 days and now it rallied above it.
So I love a setup like that that shakes people out.
The peg ratio per Okta, forward peg ratio, which figures in price to earnings and growth,
1.45.
Anything under two is like Peter Lynch's greatest thing.
And it's growing revenues year over year at 13%, where most of the other ones are growing at 6%.
So again, it's a great, great stock. I think if you don't have that one, find an entry on it.
And it's trading at the lower end of its 52-week range, between 70 and 127. In a bull market,
that's just screaming a stock that may be underperformed. But I'll give you a good story about that.
I bought Apple way back in 2007. The reason is I went to my IT department and I had bought a new
iPhone and I said, I want to get this put on the IT. And they said, you can't. And I said, well,
how many people are coming to you every day with iPhones? And they said, 10 to 15, we have to turn
down. This was a 2000 person in a company and 10 to 15 people per day were asking about iPhones.
Simple, you know, and Logical just told you.
His company uses it.
I just told you the old company that I work for uses it.
So Okta is a great one.
But short term, I do like this kind of logic about stuff. NatGas crashed today and we saw EQT, the biggest
stock, biggest loser in the S&P was down 8%. I like trading triple leveraged ETFs. So Boyle and
KOD, I would expect any reaction. I always say this on my podcast, any reaction is an overreaction
in the market. So I tend to like Boy boil tomorrow. And for Scott's setup, Scott has
anything in here. And I think somebody had mentioned Salesforce. Instead of Salesforce,
look at ServiceNow. They report on Wednesday. It's an AI play. It just got a buy in my four
hour algorithm. I posted the chart up there. And I think that's one that could, again,
it's in its 52 week range. It's not trading at all-time highs, and I like the company. So again, from a long-term standpoint, I don't know if you're
going to make money this week. I was up six figures today, like I said. I'm perfectly fine.
But again, to Stock Talk's point, I don't post my personal portfolio. And the reason I don't post it,
if I had less than eight-figure portfolio, I would absolutely post it. But the reason I don't post it, if I had less than eight figure portfolio,
I would absolutely post it. But the problem I have with posting my portfolio returns is I have
over 50% of my portfolio in Apple. I don't think anybody should be following my portfolio,
but 50% of my portfolio in Apple and my actual portfolio is positive when Apple's down like 18% this year.
So I'm doing okay. But if you want to follow me just for specific names and stuff and not
learning about how I think about things, don't follow me. Please don't at me and stock talk.
I love you, but your guys still come after me every now and then whenever I say anything.
So please. I have a lot of followers. I can't crawl them.
You know I'm okay with that.
You've got a dog, so we've got love for each other.
Yeah, I love dogs.
Yeah, I was at the vet most of the day,
speaking of dogs, but he's all good.
It was just an annual checkup.
um pretty chill day in the markets i mean yeah momentum names pulled back today we seem to have
Pretty chill day in the markets.
I mean, yeah, Momentum name's pulled back today.
this uh conversation every time momentum names have a weekday like every single time and i think
it's like um this propensity of especially people who you know come on public shows like this with
a lot of people in the audience like everyone wants
to be right right like everyone wants to be like oh you know hey i was putting out the warning signs
guys and you know look at this correction that happened i mean i i don't find that to be
particularly productive and to be honest most of those people are mostly wrong. Like the people who are always in a rush to call inflections in the market or call downside in the market, like, are they occasionally right?
Yeah.
I mean, market's correct, but they are wrong 90% of the time.
I mean, that's just objectively true.
And it's been true for the last five years, too.
Like, we've had corrections.
We had a big correction earlier this year.
I mean, into the Aprilil lows pull up any stock doesn't matter the industry pull up any stock doesn't have to be ai related doesn't even have to have tariff exposure right like kratos
one of my favorite names has like no tariff exposure that stock still went all the way down
to the 200 day during the april correction so go back to last year to 10% corrections. You'll go back to the year before,
go back to 2022 where the markets were down 27 peak to peak to trough all the
way down over the period of all of those instances,
stocks are higher and most individual quality names are higher.
Like not just net net higher,
but like new highs higher.
And I mean,
there's going to be another correction too.
Maybe it starts here. Maybe it starts tomorrow, tomorrow but like i just don't i mean and maybe this is also because a lot of people are more short-term
minded than i am i'm a positional trader like i don't buy stuff and sell it the next day so
maybe that's why i have this perspective but like is anyone looking at the spy chart
like where the where are the red flags i i don't see them and maybe i'm blind but like is anyone looking at the spy chart like where the where are the red flags i i
don't see them and maybe i'm blind but like we haven't even given up the 90 ma on spot like i
mean maybe we can start having the conversation about a major market pullback if we knock out the
21 daily and stocks look weak on a broad basis yeah but right now it's like i don't know maybe
maybe we get red into the end of the week and peel below it and you see some more loss in
momentum names and and you're forced to rotate out of them but you know i'll cross that bridge
when i come to it even today i was looking at pullbacks like centris had a centris was the
biggest pullback for me today was down like 10 today uh which isn't a big deal we're up more than double on it but it just pulled back into
the 90 ma today it's like is that concerning to me no that's not a structural breakdown at all
and i flipped through all of my names like i had a couple other names that were down three or four
percent i flipped through i'm like no daily breakdowns, no weekly breakdowns, no monthly breakdowns. It's like, could the market go lower? Yeah. The market can always
like start to correct for any number of reasons, tariffs, economic data, the interest rate curve,
yields, and any of these things, a tweet from Trump. I don't like plan out. I don't plan that
out or try to anticipate it. Those things will happen.
And if the charts and markets start breaking down, then I start adapting and reacting,
but I don't do it in anticipation of that. And I'm not saying I don't occasionally plant seeds
in an industry that I think might get some attention. I do that on an individual stock
basis. When it comes to the broader market, it's like today pretty clearly in my eyes was small and mid momentum getting sold.
And you saw a broader rotation into big tech and mag seven.
I mean, if I had to describe today in one way, that's what I would how I would describe it.
And into the end of the day, we saw fade in some of those moves.
But like I had some green positions today.
I had some flat positions today.
I had riot green.
I had Warby Parker green. I had riot green. I had Warby Parker green.
I had Amazon green.
I had materion green,
which I talked about on Friday as my new position.
I had crisper green,
big green in the morning,
slightly green to the close.
I had a couple of positions,
but slightly flat Kratos,
Huntington,
you know,
my aerospace and defense names.
I had a couple of names down three or 4% like genius and Robin hood, Joby. And I had a couple names down three or four percent like
genius and Robin Hood and Joby and I had a couple names down or not couple one name down more than
that which was centrist but that's down into the 90 ma after a parabolic run like is that gonna
scare me no so I mean I don't know maybe it's a matter of experience maybe it's a matter of
perspective or maybe it's a matter of like just not panicking
constantly but i don't know i i don't think about like every time market leading names are read five
or six percent i don't think it's game over it's time to pivot the entire market attitude
i generally think cyclically speaking that doesn't really happen like i actually think there's a dramatic
overemphasis on the idea of rotation broadly speaking not just like with traders but like
with everyone in the market like i just think there's too much of an emphasis like
can anyone remember the last major bull market year where tech outperformed for three months
and then like industrials took over and just ripped for the
rest of the year and were the top performers? I can't remember. Like maybe for a quarter
or maybe for three weeks, you see that type of rotation to safety. And then the second that
there's a clearing event on whatever overhang is on the market that's causing a rotation to safety,
you see a rotation immediately back to strength and tech. And if we think about the secular thematics in the market right now that
are driving valuations, right? Like what's really driving the market right now? It's still AI.
Yeah, there's lagging names in industrials and in biotech and all these other areas. But like,
what is really driving market expectation? Why have markets so relentlessly been going higher year after year? Because in my view, and this is just my opinion, this isn't objectively true,
there is a broad understanding that in the next five years, you're going to see deployment of
AI software and robotics at the type of scale that will transform the economy. I believe that.
And I think the market believes that too. And I think that's
why there's this relentless strength in all of these speculative technology names. Like, yes,
they go down a lot when the market cools off. Yes, this is not news to anyone. Yet we talk about it
like it's some novel concept every time the markets are red. Yes, if the market's correct 10%,
these names like Joby and these these evtol names and these data
center names are going to go down 30 or 40 percent if you don't have that as the assumption under
your belt you shouldn't own those names or trade those names at all so that's one thing to just
clear up because i think people have some kind of perception that that's like debatable or
controversial it's not. Speculative,
high beta names will go down a lot during market corrections, period, end of story.
But again, it's about what you want to own when the markets aren't correcting. And I think for
the last three years, the thing you've wanted to own when the markets aren't correcting is tech,
is data center, is nuclear power, is all of these themes that have been relentlessly bought on dips
and have made new highs, not just on a multi-month basis, but on a multi-year basis,
through corrections, through market pullbacks. That's where your attention should be,
because that's the market loudly telling you, hey, we see value in these industries. We think
there's going to be real fundamental earnings change as a result of what's happening secularly in the background.
So that's where I remain focused. I'm happy with the names I own. I don't see any red flags from
today's action. If there's more selling at the end of the week, there's going to be some lower
conviction stuff, some stuff that I kind of wear at the edge of my portfolio belt, if you will,
that I'll cut.
And other than that, I probably won't do much. If we break down below the 21 EMA and individual
stocks look heavy, then I may throw some spy edges on. And that's about it. I don't think
you need to do anything crazy here. I don't think you need to be rethinking the entire composition
of your portfolio because we had one rotation day into the mag seven um money will flip around in markets but you have to pay attention
to the larger trend right like look at those weekly and monthly charts i did a little short
hour long workshop yesterday where just um scanned through all the names of my portfolio for our
members i was going through the weekly and monthly charts. I was like, these all look great. And if it's a name that you don't plan to hold for a few weeks,
then you should be looking at the weekly and monthly charts and you shouldn't be just
obsessed with the daily chart and obsessed with any sign of weakness in the daily chart.
Because yeah, if you're a short-term trader, then yeah, you should be. But if you're like
planning a whole positions for months and you're like, two or three red candles on the daily scare you out of a stock,
you're never going to swing anything. Like, anything. You're just going to get shaken out
of every single stock. You're never going to have a multi-month swing trade in your life if you act
like that. So, I mean, I don't know. I just think there's a ton of hyperbole, and every single time
market-leading names are are weak we have this conversation
of like hey guys you know i'm like taking stuff off the table and i'm not knocking anyone who
says that i just think it's people trying to be right more than anything people trying to be like
the ones that said i told you to be safe you know and look what happened the market pulled back 10
like market pulling back 10 isn't going to kill. It's probably not going to kill most decent traders. So I welcome that. That's fine if that's what we're headed for. But I mean,
what's on the table really that can cause that? The only thing I can think of is that tariffs
come in higher than expected on August 1st. And if that happens, then yeah, we might be headed
for a correction, but that's also two weeks away or a week and a half away and yeah i mean
we'll see i will cross that bridge when we come to it based on besan's comments today
it doesn't seem like they're going to be too hard to stick with it he today he said something to
the effect of i don't remember the exact quote but he said um the timing isn't as important as
the quality of the deals.
Because he's asked with August 1st deadlines.
Like, what does that mean?
Does that mean if they're having good discussions that they're going to delay it again?
Because the market's really good at this boy who cried wolf thing.
You know, for those who have heard the story, boy who cried wolf, the boy who like, you know,
eventually they stopped listening to him and it actually was a wolf.
The Trump has, you know, called the taco trade, called the boy who cried wolf trade, call it whatever you want to.
But the market has been calling bluff on tariffs like for the last two months.
Right. The market does not believe that we're headed for 30, 40 percent universal tariffs.
Now, if we are. And the market is surprised with that on August 1st.
Yeah, you're going to get a big sell off. You're probably going to, I'm not going to say it's going to be like April 2nd, but
you're probably going to get a similar type of sell-off. And you should be prepared for that
on August 1st, if that's the reality, if we don't have trade deals done by August 1st,
or if the deadline gets pushed again. If the deadline gets pushed again, then this catalyst
is really going to start losing its significance to the market. Right. I mean,
you get delayed a fourth time on tariffs, then the market's going to be like, all right, dude,
are you going to even do this? Or is this the intention of this just trade deals? And so,
yeah, on the macro, I think that's the thing to be focused on. I know everyone's like, Oh,
you know, we should be focused elsewhere. I do agree.
I think somebody said this earlier.
It might have been Lally.
One thing I do agree with is that earnings are very important, probably this week and
next week.
We do want to see in the background the economy is still doing well.
You always want to have that box checked off because it's important for market confidence
to just know that, like, the best companies are still doing well.
You know, if the best companies are doing poorly, then the market, it does shake market confidence.
So I think the biggest thing to take away from this earnings season will be are market leading companies still doing fine despite all the noise that's going on in the macro?
And then the second thing I think will be on August 1st, will the tariffs surprise market expectations like they did on August 2nd, right?
And for those that remember, sorry on august 2nd right and for those that remember
sorry on a on april 2nd for those that remember liberation day april 2nd when trump held up that
sign that's when the markets dumped like literally that moment when he held up the sign because
that was him saying these are the tariff levels and the market saying oh shit that's more than
we expected that's what you saw on april 2nd and you may see that again on, oh, shit, that's more than we expected.
That's what you saw on April 2nd.
And you may see that again on August 1st.
So that's if somebody can ask me, hey, what's the risks in the market?
When would when would you actually be worried about a correction?
I would say post August 1st, if those numbers are higher than we expect. But before that, it's like I'm not going to take cues from this like general attitude of euphoria, you know?
And this is another thing that bothers me.
A lot of things bother me on Twitter.
But this is another thing that bothers me is this idea of like anecdotal assessment of euphoria.
Like, you know, what's an example of this?
Like somebody tweeting, oh, hey, my Uber driver asked me about, you know,'s an example of this like well like somebody tweeting oh hey my
uber driver asked me about you know Bitcoin today that's a sign of euphoria
or like some mid cap stock goes up a hundred percent and people are like
that's a sign of euphoria like whenever I see that I'm like do people realize
like how meaningless that is like Let's say a $2 billion
company doubles. Let's say it doubles in a week. Is that euphoria in the market?
There are some people on Twitter who would have you believe that, that a company going from $2
to $4 billion is euphoria. The United States equity market is a $60 trillion market.
the United States equity market is a $60 trillion market.
$60 trillion.
Like a $4 billion company doubling,
even a $10 billion company doubling is meaningless.
It is literally meaningless.
Now, if $110 billion companies double,
could that be an early sign of euphoria? Yeah. But that's a different thing than what we're seeing. You know, we're seeing very selective niche market euphoria in a handful of industries. And, you know, I think net net in the last month, you've probably seen what, maybe 100 billion of market capitalization and those concentrated names,
maybe 200 billion of market cap movement in a month. Is that a lot of money? Yeah. On a relative
basis to you and I, yeah, but to the, to the market, no, it's not to the broader, like United
States equity market. It's not. And that's an important thing to keep in perspective as well is like what are you using to assess euphoria are you using random anecdotes from smid cap stocks
that you trade like are you a retail trader with 20 smid cap stocks in your watch list and they're
all up 20 in a day and you're like that's euphoria i'm sorry to burst your bubble it's not
that's not euphoria you know euphoria is like what you saw with the SPAC era. That was euphoria.
For those that remember the 2021 SPAC era, that was euphoria. That was hundreds of SPACs going
public at multi-billion dollar valuations running three to 400% pre-merger, each of them. That is
euphoria. And that's not what we're seeing yet. And so I wouldn't call this in line with euphoria.
Does that also mean that a market correction can't come?
No, that's not what I'm saying.
But I'm saying you have to be careful about how you assess these things.
If your assessment of euphoria is based on the things you're seeing on your Twitter feed or on your personal watch list, that's a poor sample size.
Just is.
That's not effective sampling sample sizing for any of you that took statistics in college or high school yeah that's probably an early thing you would have learned so the sample
the sample sizing on these assessments of euphoria is very very niche and i think not doesn't really
make any any good points and i also think that you know if the markets are going to correct they're
not going to correct because of euphoria and smid cap stocks. They're going to correct because of some larger problem, in my view, either in yields or in this tariff situation.
So that's kind of my 360 on the market.
It's like I said, nothing concerning today.
I didn't see any major breakdowns in anything, let alone the indexes, at least in anything that I was looking at.
So, yeah, I kind of just shrugged my shoulder today like today and say, we'll see what happens into the end of the week.
Could there be some pressure at the end of the week that does force me to change my mind
on some individual stocks that might live at the corner of my portfolio?
Yeah, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it like we always do.
I don't panic in advance, if you will.
So, yeah, those are my thoughts.
Nice rant to start the week.
I appreciate you, Stock Talk, there.
Ali, I don't know if there's any points to that.
I saw Monitiv also come up for a second.
I don't know if he's still up here.
But Ali, I don't know if there's anything in that.
Obviously, you've got a couple different areas you could pick through.
It was interesting.
No worries. Yeah, through. It was interesting. No worries.
Yeah, no. Oh, sorry. I was just going to say, I totally agree on market exuberance. And it does
seem like the general theme on Wall Street is that we have not reached over exuberance in the
market. Of course, you have various sentiment indicators and different Wall Street firms have
their own indexes that track this stuff.
But by and large, I feel like a lot of Wall Street strategists are saying that this is a healthy market.
We're seeing this market broadening out. It's not just concentrated in tech.
We have industrials at record highs, financials, communication services.
Yes, you still have some meme stock action and open door was a prime example of that today,
but it does feel like we're not at a place that we should be worried that we
are overly frothy in this market.
So I think that's adding to a lot of the bull cases out there.
So definitely,
definitely agree with everything that was just said.
I appreciate the thoughts there.
There was a couple of headlines that came out during this,
by the way,
the spaces this last hour especially.
Not that many huge ones.
Michael Saylor creating another new class of stock.
I'd have to dig into what this one exactly means, but there's another one.
You can guess what they're going to do.
Buy more Bitcoin.
Five million shares, $100 each.
What is that math out to?
I know I should just be able to add two zeros at the end.
So what, there's another $500 million worth?
I don't know.
You guys can dig into what that one was actually about.
OpenAI plans to establish a dedicated office in Washington, D.C.
Obviously, they want more government contracts. The story Netflix is using more an AI video generation software called Runway AI. They're testing that out,
which I find to be a little interesting coming from Netflix, who you maybe want to see at the
top. And then the S&P 500 closed the day above 6,300 for the first time, 10th time this year,
it's hit new all-time highs. Those are a couple of headlines that I saw coming out in after hours.
We did have some earnings as well.xpi semiconductor uh did report and earnings the
numbers came in and were a beat on eps beat our revenue forward guidance
looks like it was the revenue was on the lower end of the range i saw the stock was moving a
little bit higher but the the forward guidance wasn't horrible.
Stock's down about 5% in after hours.
There's a couple other names that are reported too,
but nothing major.
Tomorrow morning, we have names like Coca-Cola,
Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, General Motors,
Philip Morris.
We've got some home builders going tomorrow,
D.R. Horton, and a lot of other names.
Sherwin-Williams, I'd imagine that
moves off of the home building theme, paint company. So a lot of names reporting tomorrow
morning. And then after the close, a little bit less, but names like Intuitive Surgical,
Texas Instruments, Enphase Energy, Capital One. I use Earnings Hub, whatever earnings calendar you
guys want to go to. Now is the prime time to be looking at it as we were talking about there.
Later in the week, obviously,
we have Tesla and Google coming up as well.
So a lot of massive names that we'll be reporting.
On the macro front, there wasn't a lot of stuff either.
We talked about a little earlier,
Powell, the Fed should be in a blackout period.
So I don't know why there are so many interviews
with the Fed,
but there are three that are happening tomorrow.
And then we have like initial jobs claims.
We have some services, PMIs and other flash stuff,
manufacturing PMIs on Thursday.
But that's really it on the macro front.
So a lot of this is an earning season focus,
waiting for the FOMC meeting next week as well.
Em, do we have you here?
Yes, sir.
I only heard you asking questions. Do you have any thoughts on this market? Do you have you here? Yes, sir. Yeah, I only heard you asking questions.
You got any thoughts on this market?
You got any trades?
I know you were kind of sharing some thoughts through the questions, but I'm curious how you're feeling.
Was anything standing up?
I mean, when you look at the entire market and like, yeah, some of the more high beta names that a lot of people like to trade or, you know, or they're in them and their portfolios,
they probably pulled back a little bit harder today.
But if you looked at the entire market basically pulled back today at the same
time, like I really, I mean, some things were a little bit stronger than others,
but it's just kind of a broad swooping kind of just,
it just looks tired to me. And, you know, I look at the futures,
I'm seeing mostly sell side on the futures, people like
clothing out positions. It's not necessarily bearish. I mean, just like StockTalk laid it
out. And earlier in the first hour, we had a lot of people kind of laying it out. There's
nothing really bearish about what's going on, but could it be the market's waiting for the next
piece to move it? That's kind of what I was asking. I was sitting there, okay,
you have earnings coming up. I think I agree that the August 1st deadline or whatever,
I just don't think it's going to be anything. But yeah, we have the earnings coming up. We have
Powell speaking next week. I just don't see what really scares this market other than earnings.
I think that's what it's going to hinge on. And we do have a lot of earnings that maybe we hear a little bit about what tariffs look like
in there. Maybe that surprises some people. I don't know how they're going to be able to price
some of those things in, but just broad market, it looks like normal broadening in a way. Now,
we did have the entire market kind of slow down today. you look at you know your your small mid-caps you look at your your your dow names and some of your safety names that maybe they weren't
as strong today as they've been but you know you look at this and yeah we're a little extended but
we're not like overextended if that makes sense it's just the dog days of summer for me this is
probably one of the first times in my trading career where I've just completely slowed down and not doing a whole lot here.
I did actually personally add a little bit of just downside protection, just a little small amount.
If the market keeps going up, I'll net that out pretty easily.
The market does pull back even to, like Stock Talk said, the 21-day.
I mean, we haven't touched the 21-day moving average in, gosh, it's been almost over a month now.
I mean, those are normal type of things in an uptrend that you revisit.
I mean, we're just riding a 90MA.
I mean, the 20-day moving average, simple moving average is, you know, moving up at like a 50 50, 60 degree angle at this point.
I mean, it either you go sideways to catch up or you get some kind of catalyst that allows
you to break out more.
But I don't know.
I just don't really have like a, hey, I need to be doing something right now.
And I think that's probably the toughest thing for a lot of people is like, I got to be doing
something.
I'm an active investor.
I'm an active trader this or that and a lot of times when you start looking around the market you know and i i noticed i was doing this this morning for a little bit uh late last week
kind of the same thing i'm looking around the market going what's moving what's moving what's
going on and um when you get to that point like, okay, you should probably just sit and wait.
And I can't disagree with StockTalk either.
If you're highly convicted and great names that you want to own or that you're in a strong catalyst behind it, I mean, I can understand not even wanting to trim here.
I mean, if you think there's a continued move going on, why would you trim here? I mean, maybe you're looking to add back a little bit lower or something,
but if you get too cute, you can really cause more damage than not.
So I'm just trying to keep it simple.
And I've got some dry powder ready for a pullback,
but at the same time, just a slight downside protection
with just some S&P puts know just some some general light puts
if they if they go if they're worthless the market probably goes a little bit higher they're about
the same amount of my portfolio as what that would be anyway so you know i i'm i'm fine with where
we're at and i'm excited to see what these uh what all these earnings are going to kick off you know
as we get going really tomorrow some big. I counted 27 companies reporting this week with $100 billion or larger market cap.
So should finally get some type of news and action going on.
Yeah, I mean, if the earnings are good, it's like, you know, and I agree with you.
There's signs of some exhaustion.
But, you know, sometimes you see signs of exhaustion.
And as you know, and they don't produce downside.
They end up just producing consolidation. Sometimes you see signs of exhaustion, and as you know, and they don't produce downside.
They end up just producing consolidation.
And that's a very possible outcome here as well.
You know, I would have been, and this is just technically speaking, post-April rally, if the markets had, let's say, come to previous all-time highs at like, what was it, like
609 or something?
I forgot what the highs were before that, but like something like that, 609, 610.
If the market had said came back to that spot and gotten rejected, you know, let's say some tariff news had come out or whatever,
some negative catalyst had come out at previous all-time highs and pulled us back down, I would not be as long as I am. But because we not only ripped through those highs, but also because since we
ripped through those highs, the indexes have been very strong. To me, that's more signal than noise.
The follow through on the all-time high break. And you can go look at the attitude of the indexes in 2022 to get a sort of analog to
this.
You can also go back and look at the attitude of the indexes in any, you know, pullback
market pullback or return.
I shouldn't say pullback in any return to all time highs since like 2016.
If you go back all the way in any of those, you'll see this sort of behavior.
The probabilities of, you know, a major pullback are much higher when you get rejected
at those levels. And we didn't. And not only did we not, but we saw some major short covering as
we followed through that along with, like you said, an S&P 500 that doesn't even want to give up the 90 in May. So I won't get in front of that train and call top until the market starts topping. And
that can change very quickly. You know, like I agree with you on spy puts, I'd probably put some
spy puts on here if we gave up the 21 EMA, but that would involve a fall all the way down to,
If we gave up the 21 EMA, but that would involve a fall all the way down to where is it sitting right now?
618.
So if we come back down to 618 and fail and break down, then yeah, I'll put some spy puts on.
But we're not there yet.
You know, am I going to give back five or six or 7% performance if that pullback happens and I stay as long as I am?
Yeah, but I'm okay with that.
I mean, I'm at a hundred and even after today's pullback, I'm stay as long as I am yeah but I'm okay with that I mean
I'm at a you know 100 and even after today's pullback I'm at 156 percent year to date so like
okay I give back five or six percent I manage some risk below the 21 EMA I throw some puts on
cut some peripheral positions and I think I'll handle it pretty well you know if you go look at
my performance chart I mentioned this before that's exactly what I did at post deep seek in February. And I was able to, you know,
not see as much of a drawdown as I would have, or nearly as much of a drawdown as it would have.
So I'll do that again, if we see a breakdown, but we're not there yet. And so I, again,
I've said this like six times the space, but I'll cross that bridge when I come to. And I think
for most of you that are actively managing a retail portfolio out there, I don't think you need to do more than that.
I don't think every single time you see a slowdown in momentum, you need to get worried that it's game over.
Because keep in mind, we've seen plenty of slowdowns in momentum, not just in this last week or so, but in the last several months, in the last several years,
and most of them have resolved higher. So until that behavior and that general attitude changes,
I don't see a reason to call bluff on that from the market, because to me, that's price action
telling you something. And so, yeah, I need to see a genuine behavior change in markets here before I start calling for weakness and calling for a correction.
And we're not even close to that.
I mean, we just got a golden cross in the S&P 500.
What, like in late June?
Yeah, like June 28th, 29th here.
You got a golden cross in the S&P 500, 921 pointing up.
S&P 500 riding the 9 EMA with no signs of give up since 23rd of June.
Most major momentum stocks, even after today's pullback, holding all of their short-term moving averages.
Big Tech and MAG7 caught a bid today.
We haven't seen any major minus 20 or minus 30% earnings reactions yet.
Maybe we get one or two of those this week.
But if the big names hold up,
the AI thematic and the backdrop holds up.
Sam Ullman tweeted on Sunday,
they can't get enough GPUs.
So we're back to that GPU mania race.
Are there signs of toppy euphoric behavior
on an anecdotal basis?
Yeah, you know,
I think today's people this morning were posting about
um the regulatory organization potentially removing the 25 000 day trading rule
is that a bit toppy and euphoric like yeah it sounds like one of those things that you'd refer
to if the market ended up topping you know is the is all these this at this crazy squeezing
action and these ethereum treasury plays and bitcoin plays, is that a bit toppy and euphoric?
Yeah, but again, the day trading thing isn't.
That hasn't been done yet either.
But a lot of these quote-unquote smid cap bubbles that you're seeing are relatively small total market caps, like I said earlier.
relatively small total market caps, like I said earlier.
So I don't know.
I think the euphoria has to graduate a little bit in size before it becomes
concerning, but I know we do have a hard stop. So anyway,
we'll see you guys tomorrow.
Yes, sir.
Big thanks to a stock talk and Evan for co-hosting this,
the whole panel that joined up here,
Ali hanging out with us here to the end.
I see Monitive down there as well.
A lot of things coming up this week.
We'll be live same time tomorrow, 3 p.m. Eastern.
Got some more earnings on deck as well.
So we'll see you guys then.
Of course, the space is recorded.
If you miss anything, you can go back and listen to it in its entirety.
And I am going to close this out so I can jump over to the Wolf account
and open up our stock picks for the week show.
Take care, everyone.
Have a good night.
