Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: July 22, 2025 Duration: 2:57:03Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the potential launch of a new S&P 500 treasury company, the implications of tokenization, and the impact of major tech earnings on market trends. With Bitcoin's resurgence and strategic partnerships in AI, the conversation highlighted growth opportunities amidst signs of volatility in the crypto space.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Happy Tuesday, July the 22nd. It is Stocks on Spaces, and it's
Power Hour, and we're going to talk markets and everything going on. Obviously, some earnings stuff coming up today. Intuitive Surgical, Texas Instruments, Capital One, some of the names reporting this
afternoon. We had a few this morning, Coca-Cola, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, GM. Some more obviously
coming down the pipe tomorrow. Mag7 really gets us going with Tesla and Google. Market itself,
a little interesting, a little quick sell-off this morning that is pretty much reclaimed. The S&P is actually currently green by just a little bit. Tech
dragging us down just a bit, still red on the day. IWM outperforming up almost 1%. Looking across
your big names, Tesla just made a new high of day, up almost 2%. We'll call it 1.88% as I'm
looking at it now. Google, Apple having nice days.
NVIDIA, basically sideways after heading down this morning,
down about 2%.
Microsoft at the lows of the day still,
not having a great day over there.
SMH as a whole, your Broadcoms
and some of your other ones pulling back today a little bit,
but some other names getting some love,
a little spread out in the market here.
And yeah, that's basically what I've seen as far as where we're at in the market for a little market update.
Evan, how are you today, sir?
I'm doing well. I'm doing well.
Hope everyone is as well.
I pinned up. I was having a thought.
I wanted people to tell why it's stupid.
I was thinking maybe I start an S&P 500 treasury company.
You know, nothing
makes sense anyway, but this one maybe does.
Potentially a billion dollar idea.
You're welcome. Is it going to be tokenized
or just straight up? No, probably not.
But I mean, everything they say you could do with Bitcoin,
I mean, you can lend out your S&P 500 shares
and you could probably borrow against
it and then dilute myself and just buy
more SPY or something like that.
VOO, super low
fees.
Why not just go buy S&P 500?
Why not just go buy Bitcoin? I don't know.
Felt like a billion dollar idea.
I'll let someone else do it.
But Apple also holding in pretty
strong here as well.
I'd like to hear people say why
that above is not a good idea and
hear nice things about Apple today.
Besides that, earnings really.
I'm excited for the tomorrow ones.
The ones this morning were kind of interested.
Lockheed Martin was down pretty big.
So I hope we get Monitve up here and maybe talk a little bit of the defense name
because I'm interested in that area.
I want to dig a little deeper that way.
But yeah, I'm looking forward to
uh to what we got intuitive surgical texas instruments like you were saying a couple
others tomorrow the ones i'm really excited about and then honeywell thursday morning as well so
i pull back i'm excited for the conversation not too many of the news stories that that i think
will move markets bitcoin climbed back over 120k uh je Jeff Bezos met with Trump for an hour last week,
apparently. Hershey's raising
its candy prices or its chocolate
prices by double digits.
Elon Musk wants to spend
a lot of money on NVIDIA GPUs.
Microsoft
also stealing a lot of Google
AI researchers. We're just poaching
everyone from everywhere. I saw that.
There were a lot of headlines to everyone. saw that yeah exactly there was also a headline uh spacex that reportedly was telling people to repair for
elon to get back into politics so yeah so what that was is i was looking at it it was uh in their
file so in their risk disclosures for their tender offer whatever it was they included
that elon musk might get into politics they were saying this is the first time that has happened.
So I imagine when Tesla
reports earnings, when they release
the 10Q with it, I believe
that normally has risks in it.
And I'd imagine you're going to see the same thing.
That might just be the 10K
that they do once a year. I could be wrong.
But we'll see.
Now that I think about it, I don't normally see it in the
10Q. So maybe it's just the annual filing.
Maybe that's why
he did it in November.
The annual shareholder meeting to wait after the disclose.
I don't know. I'm just speculating now.
Let's pass it around the panel.
Yeah, absolutely. Let's jump into it. I do want everyone
to tell Evan why
his idea is not going to work.
Why it's dumb or why maybe it does work.
I think it's a genuinely thing.
$100 billion company.
I'd be rich.
There you go.
All right.
Well, if you dilute people enough, maybe.
We'll see.
Y'all let Evan know on that.
And then, of course, we'll toss it around here.
Options Mike, you're always great at setting the tone for these conversations.
So let's come over to you.
Great to hear you a little bit earlier today. but what's going on in your world today?
What are you looking at across the market?
News that hit your radar, trades, investing, what's going on?
And why is Evan dumb?
Because nobody knows who he is and nobody's going to give him $100 billion.
How's that for an answer? I know who he is.'s gonna give him $100 billion. How's that for an answer?
If I know who he is, I might give him like a billion.
Well, you know, then there he goes. He's ready to rock.
This is what happens when you get a market that's waiting or tired, right?
And today it's just that classic feel.
I mean, the sell-off this morning felt horrible until you realize that, you know, the banks were holding up, IWM was holding up, energy was pushing up.
It was market breadth was not bad during this.
It was very much concentrated in tech names and the recent runners.
We saw Coin get hammered.
We saw Hood get hammered, NVIDIA, AMD, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Palantir, right?
Even Google. And most, a lot of them came back. Google's all the way back to the open. Tesla's at highs of the day. It's just kind of one of those markets
where the market's nervous. So what they're doing is they're taking profits. They're taking profits
because seasonality says it's time for the market to go to sleep or come in a little bit.
And they're worried about earnings won't be enough to move the market.
And tomorrow, obviously, we're going to get a great look with Google and Tesla and IBM
and ServiceNow and Chipotle is in there as well.
For me, Google is really going to set the tone because, you know, again, nobody expects
anything good to come out of Tesla.
Maybe something on the call goes well, but, you know, that's not going to be it.
It's going to be Google.
And what they say, how search is going, how YouTube is doing, you know, how they're monetizing AI, how their cloud is doing.
You know, are they growing that still rapidly?
That's going to give you the inclination of where we're heading here.
And that's the first of the really big, important ones to report, in my opinion.
So today I shorted uh i shorted an video just after they opened and that turned into a nice trade and took a couple little trades on hood and ended about flat there and i haven't
done much because it's just a quiet market and you know long term i'm as quiet i'm i'm as light
as i've been now since I bought into April.
Just Amazon is my only major large position at this point.
Everything else I'm very small in, whether it's IVIT or the SPY or the Q's or, you know, among others.
And, you know, just wait to see what we're going to get here.
I think, you know, we're stuck in this kind of holding pattern until we get some of these big names.
Tomorrow might give us some ideas.
And then obviously next week will be huge starting on Wednesday.
Wednesday and Thursday next week are huge.
Monday and Tuesday are kind of quieter, especially Monday night.
Don't overtrade.
And that's the one thing I always tell people.
Don't overtrade.
But, you know, there was strength today.
Banks for your highs.
IWM's on highs.
China names, whether it was Baidu or bob or pdd had nice days and pushed
there's still strength in this market they're still looking at buying names there was this
whole stupid thing with coals which i still can't figure out what the hell drove that
uh incredible move today but that was one hell of a short squeeze on that thing pre-market so yeah
you know don't over trade if you don't see your pitch, wait. We'll have more opportunities this week as more names start to report.
I didn't see news on that Coles move.
I think that might have just been a mean play.
I think it was a mean play.
I think some analysts said something positive about it, but nothing great.
Golden raised their price target to 7 from 5.
I don't know what they said, Stock Talk, if you saw.
But it then shot up to like 15.
24, 34.
I was looking on Prospero, and it had really high net social sentiment
and very high short pressure as well.
So it looked very –
I didn't look for myself, but somebody said it had a 49% short interest.
Yeah, it's 49% short interest.
That could have done it. The value on is like 33 so I
mean you sell it for its parts minus the debt and that's probably not a bad move
to be honest with you I think somebody might buy it other names on that list
I'll just read you out if we're in silly season because Cole's an opener on here
the screener Tilray, Lucid,
Crisper
Cheesecake Factory, Chargepoint
is that Aurora Cannabis? Shift 4
and then Jack in the Box
there you go
Stock Talk's favorite place to go
big Jack in the Box
guy I know I heard that Red Lobster is making a little bit of a comeback is Stock Talk's favorite place to go. Big Jack in the Box guy.
I heard that Red Lobster is making a little bit of a comeback.
You guys are hilarious.
I hate both those places.
But yeah, no, short
interest.
Definitely an interesting place to be looking
for sure. We'll talk a little bit more about that later
when we get through the panel.
Appreciate Options Mike kicking us off there.
As always, if somebody mentions something that you want to chime in on, feel free to jump in
or throw up a hand. I want to go over to my friend StockGeek. Oh, okay.
Hey, now go to StockGeek. Go to StockGeek. Let's go to StockGeek. StockGeek, thanks for joining.
Great to have you on the panel. Hey, what's up, gents? How are you?
Good. How are you, sir? I Interested to see what's been on your radar
lately, investing trading-wise, market thoughts. What's going on in your world? Yeah, man, it's
been fast and furious lately. So caught the open move. I was actually tweeting about that back in
May before it hit most people's radars. And then all the follow-through, of course. We've seen a
lot of rotation, obviously, Kohl's today, but a ton of other names getting getting that sort of companion squeeze. I think, you know, a lot of traders are kind of trying to figure out what's the next big one to go. So yeah, just following that, following all the hot themes, you know, fintech, robotics, space, quantum, nuclear, you guys know all those themes have been super hot. So trying to find opportunities there where, you know, there's actually still some upside asymmetry there.
But yeah, I mean, today was interesting.
It did feel like there was like some factor rotation.
I think some quant funds were probably degrossing.
We had like, you know, I think that's why we saw a lot of the market leaders like Palantir, Robinhood, etc.
Coinbase get hit.
And then you had a lot of covering in a lot of the highly shorted stuff.
And so we saw that pretty much across the board in a bunch of different names.
So, yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what this looks like, like if there's any follow through to this, you know, the squeeze mania or if we're it was sort of like a flash in the pan with open and cold.
So I'm I've got a few on my radar that I'm kind of watching and waiting for.
And then, yeah, other than that, obviously
covering as much of the earnings stuff as we can. So yeah, it's been a very busy couple of weeks
here. It's going to be still pretty busy here for a while. Do you think the market's just pausing
because it's waiting on the earnings? Where do you think we're at? Do you think we're a little
too hot right now? What's your general take on where we've, I mean, obviously we've come
a long way back up here to all-time highs, but you think it's just a normal consolidation? Do
you think we need a pullback? What's your read on that? Yeah, I think we've all probably been
feeling that a pullback would be healthy here. With the size of the moves, with the valuation
levels we're at and some of the leaders, Good companies with good trajectories. Palantir is
the perfect example. NVIDIA, another one. Even some of the more unknown names like GE Verona,
the AI beneficiaries. And so I think just given the size of the moves that we've seen in the last
couple of months, really since April, I think most people felt like things were getting overheated in
some of these areas and that we needed. I mean, Rocket Lab, another one, right?
I own that stock at $4 and I didn't think we'd see 40 for five or 10 years.
And here we are, right?
I mean, it's the size of the moves, the speed of the moves, I think has been pretty breathtaking.
So I think most of us felt like it was, you know, we're a little nervous for that correction to happen.
And, you know, I don't know how deep it'll be.
It seems like everybody has a lot of dry powder.
You know, a lot of institutional investors are still under allocated.
Like they kind of missed that dip buying in April to a good degree.
So I guess the question is like how deep will any pullback be?
It feels like they get bought up pretty quick.
The one risk obviously out there is still the trade war.
There's still some, I think the market doesn't seem really concerned by it because of Taco
and all the other extensions that we've seen.
But I do think if we start to see some actual pressure on inflation and on some of the economic
aspects of it later in the year, that could be cause for the market to take a further breather.
But we are in a risk-on environment.
And other than this morning, it doesn't look like we're moving out of that yet.
So I'm trying to take as many opportunities as I can right now, while also sort of keeping
my eye on that exit door and a bunch of stuff, which I think a lot of other people are also
doing.
So I think that's
what leads us to these fast moves. Yeah, definitely. If a lot of people have that
one foot near the exit type of mentality up here, which is understandable, today may be a little
de-risking ahead of some of the earnings. You mentioned earnings in there. Before I continue
around the panel, I just wanted to get your take.
Is there anything in particular you're looking forward to in the earnings season?
Is there a general thought of like, okay, things are going to be under a microscope here, like these companies at these valuations are really going to have to nail it and blow
it out?
Do you have any takes around earnings?
Yeah, I mean, I just, I'd really like to see how stocks react, especially the big techs,
the leaders in the market.
So, you know, last week, small sample size, but Netflix down 5% after a really solid set of results was an interesting indicator. I don't you know, I don't it's still a small sample size. So we'll have to see. I think this week, that's why, like y'all mentioned, Tesla, Google after the market closed tomorrow, you know, those are going to be really telling as far as if they put up solid results, particularly
in Google's case, does the stock move up or does it sell off even if results are good?
Are people going to be nitpicking little statements on the conference call or minor things in
the earnings release?
And so I guess a big part of that for me is just going to be assessing the market's reaction
to it.
So the numbers themselves, but also like, how is the market reacting?
Are we going to get a Netflix like reaction or, you know, we're going to get positive
follow through.
And so that's, that's something I'll be keeping a close eye on.
You know, I think with Google, it's interesting.
If you go back and read their conference call from the prior earnings, they really talked
down Q2 results in a way.
Like they said, well, we're going to have higher depreciation expense because of our
AI investments and growth rates can fluctuate because of the timing of these AI buildouts.
And there's some pressure from the loss of the de minimis exemptions for some of our
advertisers.
So they didn't really give super, super bullish guidance.
But it seems like we've had a lot of sell-side reports out lately
saying that we think Google's numbers are going to be better than expected.
So I think the Google numbers, I expect them to be probably pretty good
and they're going to talk up AI and AI overviews.
So again, I guess we'll see how the stock reacts,
but I'm cautiously optimistic on Google going into earnings.
And yeah, I think just the reactions will be telling as far as what stocks are going
to do over the next few weeks and into August.
Appreciate those takes, StockGeek.
Feel free to jump back in the conversation at any point.
Of course, we're going to continue around the panel here.
I want to go over to my friend, the Godfather.
What's up, my friend?
How are you?
And what's going on in your world?
Yeah, doing well.
I'll pick up the conversation right on the earnings topic, since we were just talking
about that.
I was reading a note from Goldman saying, hey, this 70% of the tech and comm services
report in the next two weeks.
And the average tech stock is implying an earnings day move of only 4.7%,
which is the lowest in like two decades.
And then I went back to actually what the earnings expectations are for Q2.
And, you know, again, I'm focusing on S&P,
but, you know, 30% of the S&P earnings are, you know,
the 10 largest companies,
which are tech companies.
So it's all kind of one and the same,
but the estimates on a year over year basis are 4%.
So that's kind of in line, frankly.
And I've mentioned this before,
and it's worthy of reiterating that this is really the trough
in terms of earnings expectations,
growth expectations, pardon me.
It just goes up from here and it starts to go up into double digits as you get into 2026.
So, yeah, I really think that it's going to kind of be a look through earnings season.
you know, there will be those names that gets taken to the woodshed for, you know, comments that are otherwise, you know, not expected or setups going in that were, you know, otherwise a little bit too juiced.
But, you know, I think as a whole, I don't expect anything out of earnings season to kind of derail the market from here.
That's a good segue, I guess, into, you know, this market.
a good segue, I guess, into this market. And I took a mark out of Stock Talk's book, and I set
some alerts for nine and 21-day EMAs on the queues and the spies this morning, just because we're
seeing this sort of momentum selling under the surface, but it hasn't really hit the indices yet,
and waiting for this to trigger. And we're all sort of looking at under the surface, but it hasn't really hit the indices yet. And, you know, waiting for this to trigger.
And we're all sort of looking at this and timing it relative to, you know, the looming
tariff date and, you know, the threat of more trade letters coming and, you know, the seasonal
effects and, you know, the fact that this market's essentially gone up, you know, for
60 consecutive days, stayed above the 20-day moving averages. So it's just a matter
of time before there's at least some sort of digestion here. So I'm looking at that. When I
scanned around on all of my theme plays, there really wasn't much. Again, this is sort of the
end of the surface action that points to things slowing down a little bit here.
There's selling in these names
or profit taking in these names.
And there were a few standout names.
Cypher, for example, these rumors
that have been going on essentially
since the cores takeover by CoreWeave,
that they're the next in line
to announce a big data center deal.
And Microsoft was the name that rose to the top today, or deal. And Microsoft was the name that rose to the top today.
Or sorry, Meta was the name that rose to the top today in that name.
And, you know, that name was up big and, you know, led that group up over 10%.
But, you know, beyond that, everything is kind of in single digits.
And over half of my screen there is red.
So there are a few battery names that for whatever
reason got some excitement, posted some double digit returns, but they're just really just kind
of muted action. You know, quantum, space, power, robots, nuclear, you name it. It's mostly sort of
lackluster single digit returns. So slowing down a little bit. It's a question of
when we start to see it in the indices, of course. The China strength was called out already. That's
the third day now. There was a great call, I think on this call actually last week, and I can't
remember who that was, but I want to give credit. It might have been Wolfie, you know, just saying, hey,
I think China is a good place to put some chips on the table because of, you know, the backtracking
of the chip restrictions to China. And, you know, what does that mean in terms of trade tensions?
And then, you know, of course, you saw some more positive headlines about invitations to China
and other things. So notable strength there, breakout in NIO,
some of the other leading names that you would expect, Baba, et cetera.
I don't know if this is what you're talking about.
There was a headline this morning that Chinese government
was dropping their case against DuPont,
which I thought was really interesting.
A little under the radar.
Yeah, sorry.
Yeah, well, there's all these sort of hints about this grand bargain,
but we haven't seen it yet. But certainly that's starting to get reflected. I keep
the YIN ETF, which is the 3X ETF, on a corner of my screen just to keep an eye on that.
So that's notable. Obviously, we had these fake know fake power resignation rumors uh hit the market and
yeah that one was really dumb literally the seal was the most ai looking thing i've ever seen in
my life you deserve to lose money if you fell for that one but there was a senator who fell for it
sorry to that one that one yeah they got picked up uh like a couple guys making comments on our
discord it got picked up by several radio stations and all the rest of it. And yeah, I looked and yeah, we actually saw some reactions in some of the sectors that
you would expect to see it in, like the DPST, for example.
If they're falling for that, within the next year or two, some of these people are going
to be fucked because some of these AI fakes, that's going to be a prelude and that one
was horrible.
There's going to be some interesting ones.
There was, I even remember, like a couple, a couple remember a couple years ago there was like some fake
pentagon or something was on fire no i was gonna no i was gonna say um there was a press release
that actually got put out that walmart was gonna buy like ripple or something like four years ago
there was some random deal someone like hacked the news wires um and then it actually moved off
of it like that's how they're not even have to hack it they're just gonna be really real stuff and if you're falling for that you're screwed
with the amount of with the amount of grift and and just leaks from deals like you know
spacks are obviously back to some degree as well like every day every morning i spend time like
sifting through the the options activity and unusual options activity trying to find like
you know what are what are the insiders trading?
What are they tipping their hand to that's about to happen?
You know, what's about to drop on some, you know, company that no one's ever heard of?
And, you know, obviously like looking, especially outside, like the typical five to ten names that get the most options volumes, I think can turn up some pretty interesting opportunities.
So just to finish up my macro comments,
it's worth mentioning again,
the signs of fraud that are everywhere.
You can see it in the social sentiment ETF
hitting 52 week highs.
You can see it in the most shorted basket
up 50% in the last 75 days.
You can see it in non-profitable tech outperforming
the big cap established tech names. up 50% in the last 75 days. You can see it in non-profitable tech outperforming, you know,
the big cap established tech names.
You can see it in the extreme greed indicators.
You can see it in institutions no longer being underweight.
You can see it in retail margin.
You know, you've got this kind of, in a lot of respects,
an all-in market, you know, meeting what should be some seasonal weakness
in August and September.
So, yeah, it's definitely out there.
You know, it's an AI and meme stocks and risk assets like crypto, you know, these crypto treasury names, you know, all of these things are.
Father, what did you think of my S&P 500 treasury idea?
It's definitely a hallmark of a froth in the market.
You're top-ticking.
Well, don't tell me you don't think it would work.
We'll put you on the cover of The Economist.
Listen, I might have top-ticked.
It might be a top-tick, but you don't think I'm a billion first?
Hey, we rely on guys like you for trading indicators.
That's why people come.
There's value-add.
This is the top for sure indicators. That's why people come. There's value add. This is the top for sure now. If I can be the inverse indicator
and I can consistently do that,
I will be the next Jim Cramer for you guys.
Listen, I'd play into it too.
I'd sell you a Discord service
that's telling you all my plays
and you can inverse them.
Yeah, look, it's about how you impute
the information out there
and how you interpret it
and how you transact on it.
But yeah, in terms of some trades that we were focused on today, obviously housing got a lift here with the orders beat from DHI.
Fulte numbers were basically in line, but they had some positive comments as well.
So, you know, the NAIL ETF, which is one that I traffic in from time to time, is up some 23 percent today.
We're riding the momentum in Cypher, which I mentioned already.
This QS, you know, they announced some breakthroughs in their battery technology, which has been a science experiment for forever.
And, you know, ever since then, it's kind of been incredibly, incredibly strong.
I will note that they announced earnings after market on Wednesday.
Obviously, it's not an earnings story, but the market will certainly look to further comments on breakthroughs in their technology and when they will start to inflect to actual revenues.
So, yeah, those are sort of been the pockets of strength
and the things that we were trading on.
I'm sure I'm missing some things.
We shorted Opendoor yesterday.
That's worked out nicely today.
You know, again, you know,
sure sign of Froth when you get names like this
that are trading one and a half billion shares
and, you know, hundreds of percent in a day.
So I'll leave it there.
There was a Trump comment today about taking capital gains off of,
was it primary resident properties or something like that?
I think that goes with that home builder stuff as well,
with the positive note you mentioned.
Yeah, and it was interesting when that came, or when I first saw that on CNBC in terms of headline,
Neil was already up some 18%, I think, at that point.
Really didn't have any additional effect.
So clearly most of the effect was off of what DH Wharton had to say this morning.
Yeah, and we were talking about Rocket yesterday,
and there was a level we wanted to break it above, and this is kind of where it was.
So if we can turn what we're at now into some support.
One other comment I wanted to get in that I forgot to mention.
Kobe SEO has these great nuggets, and one of the things that I thought was interesting to note was that 90% of all insiders have been net sellers.
It's the highest recorded in the last decade.
And 10 out of 11 sectors have been negative, with the exception of utilities.
So, again, if this is a sign of froth or a sign of a market that's stretched to the upside,
there's just another data point, which I thought was kind of interesting, confirming that.
Appreciate you, Godfather.
Let's continue around the panel.
Wolfie, let's go to you next,
and then we'll continue around.
You know, I also want Wolfie's take on my Treasury one.
The steam won't get past today, I promise.
Is this the tie?
Why not? Why not? What's the difference? everyone the steam won't get passed today i promise is this the time why not why not what's
the difference right we're just gonna put tokens you might as well might as well do this too
doesn't really matter did you guys see the gme treasury company it's a tiny tiny microcap uh
quantum biopharma but they announced today that they're they bought a few thousand shares of
game stop and that they're gonna be uh all right that's too far let's lock it all burn it
all down guys it's over that's funny um no i i don't really i don't know where you want me to
go with this but um the beneficiary of cold talked about it a couple times um didn't expect
to get 19 that fast i was looking for like somewhere around 15 couple times um didn't expect to get 19 that fast i was looking for
like somewhere around 15 16 but um didn't expect for it to become some part of some sort of
mania where the the bondholders short the equity as a hedge or whatever but i'll take it you know
that buck calls 10 calls for september um under 60 cents and you know at some point today they were going for like 10 bucks i
didn't i wasn't able to fill around 10 more than like the eights but i'll take it um i like
what's the idea on this one now i'm curious on on kohl's now yeah i have no i have no idea here's
what i honestly there's like none these i guess this is what happens when you're so deep in the money yeah i just i just woke up was like what the hell's going on all right let me sell
i'll sell sold what i wanted to sell and then said you know what if i stick around i'm gonna
think i have more money to waste than i actually do so i'm not gonna do anything i'm just gonna
back off and that's pretty much what i've done for the most part today um yeah but you guys were
talking about some of these squeezes yeah that's been the play you know since the s best stuff started
taking off that's kind of like uh where where my head's been at for uh some of these names i haven't
traded like open with the big one i didn't trade it um one that's going right now and i'm just
going to be interested to see how they how they handle it next couple days
is gopro uh if they're able to get open to north of four dollars with six times the float that gopro
has i can imagine if these lunatics hop on that one with what would happen so i'm just paying
attention to it um outside of that i just think there's a lot there's a lot of – this isn't like anything new.
I've been saying this for a few months now.
There's a lot of distressed names that provide opportunity.
They're dislocated.
You talked about a couple of them early.
Hershey's, for example, distressed.
I think it's interesting that they're raising prices now,
now that cocoa prices are actually coming in and sugar prices
and their input costs are actually coming in and sugar prices and their input costs
are actually coming in, they've decided to raise prices. So I think it's really fascinating because
that's going to be like a margin tailwind if that keeps up. But outside of that, I've mentioned
quite a few advanced auto parts. I talked about that one was around $50 after it consolidated
post ER. I talked about it before ER as well,
but they're up today because genuine parts is up 7% on good earnings.
There's a lot of other really random things like MedPace.
Take a look at that one, for example.
That one's up like 40% on the back of just earnings,
but the earnings weren't anything that I thought
would drive the thing 40%.
It's also popped some other
names like IQV, for example.
And then it's like a lot
of other CROs that are
possibly going to pop
on the back of earnings. So people are front running them
as well. So it's kind of like a tell of what's
going on. On the back of the China stuff
that Godfather was alluding to, yeah names are one way another way is um some of these solar
names now that you've got the the bill in the in the rear view uh along with um the china
you know tension softening potential like that bodes well for that sector um there it's kind of catching a bid um
and then i i i think the next few weeks if i just like you know talk about it just from a macro
perspective um i think that you know some of these tech names have gone a little, you know, ahead of their skis.
I think trying to figure out which ones have gone ahead of their skis too fast is a failed game.
I think if you've been the beneficiary of that, you just kind of ride it.
But if you're just thinking about, like, where can I go?
Where can I hide?
How can I earn money? You know, without,
like trying to call it top, I think that there might be a,
I think there might be some,
some kind of flight to some of these utility names.
Take a look at like constellation knee reports earnings on the today,
I think, or, or tomorrow morning, but they report earnings after the bell.
That's going to probably tip it off. So yeah, I think, or tomorrow morning. But they report earnings after the bell. That's going to probably tip it off.
So yeah, Constellation, Duke Energy, NEI.
I talked about ETR before on here a few weeks ago.
That one's up nicely.
So I think that might be the safety rotationary concept.
Outside of that, I think some of these XLV components are starting to perk up a little
bit. Johnson & Johnson caught a bit today. BMY looks like it's basing at prior support. It's
holding again. You got any thoughts on Eli Lilly?
Lilly's been in a range. It's been basically between 720 and 800. The one thing that I think
is interesting about Lily now is that it, you know, after it failed the 200 day, it just basically
went back to the breakout point. It didn't actually go all the way to 720 this time around.
So I think if it could, you know, hold this level,
whatever the recent loads were, call it like 750, just around down,
and then, you know, catch a second leg,
I think, you know, above that 200-day, it could open the door to like 880.
I don't know.
You know, people talk about, you know,
there's a couple of lawsuit potentials going on with them.
I don't know if it'll actually materialize that way,
but I do think that if it is to hold this level, it looks pretty good.
I don't hate it.
I actually like it.
Let me put it that way.
I don't hate it.
I like it.
Other names around the FOMO stuff, like I've talked about,
and you guys mentioned Coldohl's at the top.
Take a look at something like Children's Place.
It's another one that I've owned for quite a bit.
I owned it for like since $5.
You know, I don't think that they potentially have the same type of fundamental case, potentially,
because I think there's like a little bit,
a little bit more real estate play with Kohl's. But I do know that like last September,
that stock popped from basically $5 to like 18 bucks in a straight line on some, you know,
Saudi takeover investment or something like that. And I don't, I don't think that that's something that's out of the question to pop back
up again.
if people want to play that mantra outside of that,
look,
it's I'm looking at like,
you know,
again,
just same kind of concept.
What,
what could they go after next?
You know,
Snapchat's breaking out of a downtrend going north of $10,
you know snapchat's breaking out of a downtrend going north of ten dollars um you know and uh and some of these the inverse of that would be some of these names that have taken off
that you know like espet for example it went from nine to 40 bucks i don't i don't think picking a
side is the way to go i think it's more of like you know let those things cool off go
sideways whatever and just move uh down the line um some of these beaten up uh fast casual food
whatever you want to call them names look good sweet green kava come to come to mind off the top
they're they're basing uh the inverse of that is take a look at Cheesecake Factory. It's at like an eight-year
high, about to break out of its all-time high. Really awesome setup if it actually does break
out. They're benefiting from menu changes, reducing costs, labor costs coming down,
automating a lot of things, and then the DoorD dash effect of of of some of those things um and then the last
thing is like you know a lot of these names have run so i've been you know taking a lot off the
table and i got into i got i got into crisper for example like 39 bucks it's trading north of 60
cool take it bag most of it got you know rolled out of all the options and that's kind of
like where where you got to be i think i think you just if if you are the beneficiary of some
of these winners you book them uh if you want to if you want to keep participating you just reduce
along the way and um you don't really chase because i like i've mentioned time and time again
you're gonna have opportunities like like again i've been long calls for a few months now.
I didn't expect them to wake up.
I didn't expect to wake up today and be like,
oh shit, this is at $19.
I was looking for $15, give or take,
$16, somewhere around there in the next few months possibly.
But to just wake up and see it that way,
that's the kind of market we're in.
So if you miss something, you miss it.
The last one on the FOMO front, take a look at Hertz,
you know, the Ackman play.
It feels like they're kind of going after it again.
And if it could break out of that recent high
that it made on the back of Ackman,
I think it's like eight and change, maybe nine.
That thing could squeeze.
The analog to it is Avis. Avis, once the Ackman headline came out, I think was trading at $90.
That stock's more than doubled. So HTV did run aggressively, but if you just compare them side
by side, it didn't run as much as its cohort and that's the one that people were
kind of targeting so that's pretty much it if you've got anything i'm happy to answer it
yeah any thoughts on these earnings coming up over the next uh day or so there's a lot of
different names so the answer is gonna be yes but i'm curious if there's any like one or two
in there specific um you know well if there's any one or two in there specific.
I do well, Thursday morning you can get the cop out and just say that you have an approved answer.
No, no.
I think this setup is a little bit more difficult than the previous setup.
I think the last time people were bracing for, are they going to not give guidance and sandbag and all that stuff and i think this time around it's a little bit different um i i'm kind of a fan of
like the bar is pretty low for google so if there's ever a time for them to kind of like
go full bore now would be the time and then the market kind of plays catch up um i'm kind of
talking my book though because i own google but that's that's
me i don't like chasing like microsoft up here or you know i'd rather i'd rather trade meta after
the print um but the one of all of them i kind of like google amazon's interesting as well but
that my fave going into this quarter is Google just because of, you know,
the valuation is really cheap and they are at the crossroads.
Like they've put out a decent AI product with VO, for example.
And I'm kind of interested to see if that had any tailwind effect for them
or if there's any other AI stuff that's coming.
Google also has a conference set for August 20th.
So again, if you go back and
look at summer of 2015, I kind of feel like the setup for Google is kind of in line with that.
And back then they pulled a rabbit out the hat and took off, kept going. So I'd be curious to
see if they're able to do that again this time around. Tesla's pressing into a downtrend.
I don't think the quote-unquote earnings matter as much as, like,
the talk around the future stuff.
So I'm kind of curious, you know, if they give them a leash again
or if it's, you know, one of those where they're not able to spin it.
But outside of that, again, I'm looking for – I like the boring stuff.
But outside of that, again, I like the boring stuff.
I like the beaten up stuff.
I like the beaten-up stuff.
I like things that can move integers, but the options prices don't really price 10%, 15%.
You go back to the previous quarter, Oracle's the perfect example.
Oracle came out and smashed earnings, re-rated to the upside, and then gave you multiple days.
earnings, you know, re-rate it to the upside, and then it gave you multiple days. You know,
some of these retail-sensitive names, like take a look at Starbucks breaking above its 200-day-to-day,
you know, some of those kinds of names, Target is another one I've mentioned on a couple of
your guides and spaces. They had a really crappy quarter last time, and it still didn't sell off.
So, you know, any marginal positive from them
and I think names like that
could really light and take off.
So that's kind of like where my head's at
for some of these earnings names.
Appreciate you.
I did see a Montez hand go up
at some point during there.
It was kind of crazy.
It was like, you said Google
and Montez hands went up at the same time.
I don't know if it was before or after.
And then you also mentioned the defense a little bit too.
We got, we got a lot of months of interest in there.
How you doing, sir?
So your hand up.
Hey guys.
No, actually, I was, I put my hand up to, to, to, to, to comment on his,
his utility as a safety trade comment. So it's interesting, right? So
I think we are going to see the market continue to narrow, the breadth continue to narrow,
and there's very few real values out there. The problem is when you look at utilities in terms of a relative valuation from recent times or even longer term, there is no value there.
The multiple has been in the mid 20s.
Last few years, multiple has been averaging in the, you know, high 20s.
And we are up 35 times, roughly 33 times, 33 point something.
That's as expensive as Microsoft and 50% more expensive than S&P.
This is a utility.
We're not talking about a tech stock.
This is a fucking utility.
I mean, there is a risk there that we're already
so damn overstretched. And if the market is weak, would you buy a utility with whatever
a utility growth rate is going to be, even if it's 50% better than historical growth rates?
50% better than historical growth rates.
Are you paying 35 times or more for a utility?
I don't get that argument.
I mean, all of the utilities are far more extended in their multiples against their historical norm, right?
I mean, it was always historically the safety trade, because there
was a dividend, there was, you know, low beta, you know, low volatility sector. But man,
I had 35 times for Constellation. I don't know, it scares me far more than you know putting up with uh with
pullback in a in a tech stock i don't get that yeah i don't disagree with you i'm just talking
about um you know where money could flow for for i agree yeah i agree but what's your point right
but to your point if we do let's say have a crazy trade where money blindly shifts to constellation and it pops to like a 40 or a 50p, that would be heck of a short.
It would be a lifetime short opportunity for me.
That's how I see it.
I'm not saying it's unlikely to happen.
I'm just saying that it's crazier.
It's like, happen. I'm just saying that it's crazier.
It's like, I don't know. It's the medicine worse than the disease kind of situation here.
So I can't.
It's very likely that some form of it happens.
But to me, the opportunity is on the other side of that trade to be the counterparty there.
What else?
Oh, I don't want to talk about Google.
We've talked enough about Google.
Defense.
Yeah, I am completely out of U.S. defense.
I'm completely out of U.S. defense other than, you know, a position in Endural from two fundraisers ago.
That's my only, it's the private holding and that's the only holding I have.
I don't even have a U.S. defense ETF exposure, right?
I'm completely out.
I'm completely out.
I do have a significant defense position.
I do have a significant defense position.
Almost all of it is Europe, India, and Korean companies.
There's small exceptions.
But outside of that, I do not have defense positions.
Natrop was a really good report.
Most of it comes from two primary programs sentinel which is kicking up and
the the strategic forces are committed to it there is no choice even though the program
budget is blown out it is not a narthra problem it is more a problem of the infrastructure that the missile is going to sit on.
Sentinel, for those who don't know, is one leg of the nuclear triad. It's the replacement for
the Minutemen missiles, which are, you know, anywhere from 40 to 60 years old now. So you
don't want a 60-year-old nuclear missile. You don't know what it's going to do. So, that's one program that has been confirmed, even though there was a non-McCurdy analysis um, analysis on it because they, they, they went 10% over.
So, so that was a big problem last year.
They've confirmed that it's going to go ahead and they are getting additional funding for it.
So the second part is the B21 program.
They expect the, uh, the low rate production, uh, L3, um, to be, uh, to be assigned this quarter, late in this current quarter, late K3.
So the chatter is that they are taking production up to 10 a year of B21s.
So that's also a positive.
There is an allocation of $5.2 billion for the program.
So they've got money to expand that. So those are the two primary things that Northrup is
running on. I would still wager that they have a problem with exposure to F-35s. If that program is
curtailed back, Northrop as a supplier to the prime is going to have problems there.
They do supply a lot of systems to the F-35. Lockheed was a known disaster. They did beat on earnings, but they had to take a
charge. My guess is, I did not listen to the call, but my guess is that charge was against
closing out the F-47 program because that was obviously given to Boeing. So they had some
factory expansion in expectation of that. They had made the demonstrator so they had some factory expansion in expectation of that they had, um, they'd made the
demonstrator and they had committed a lot of tooling to it. So all of that is being unwound.
So it's a 1.6 billion charge. Uh, the other divisions are doing okay. Obviously, uh, you know,
there's a lot of demand for, um, from their, uh, mission, um, um, missiles, fire control division.
So that's doing okay.
All of them are sort of struggling in the space side of it.
You know, it's just that, you know,
the cost benefit analysis that's being done clearly favors,
you know, players like SpaceX or one of the newer players,
and these guys are much higher cost.
So space division of Northrop and Lockheed,
not going to be able to compete unless something changes, right?
There's a qualitative difference there, but still a problem.
Raytheon is okay, but it's run so much that I think it just ran out of gas.
But Raytheon did call out MRO as one of the reasons for outperformance.
So again, I'll plug it.
The MRO industry maintenance repair overhaul is going to be a longer-term beneficiary
of sustained strength in air transportation
because the more
you fly the planes, the more wars
you have, the more you fly your
aircraft, the more
maintenance is needed and that's where these
guys come in. So Suryatian
shipped more engines for maintenance, they
did more maintenance on the engines
and they have guided up that segment.
So that's the summary of the defense that I caught up on.
Appreciate the thoughts, Damontev.
Got about nine minutes to the close here.
Looking at some of these earnings that we have coming up,
I don't know how much people care about them that much.
Intuitive Surgical says 405.
Texas Instruments says 401.
SAP, 405.
Enphase, well, as a Fintuit favorite for a while, 405.
Looks like we've got a lot of 405 names coming up here, by the way.
So I'll cut in.
I don't know if we need to dig into the expectations too much before.
Brian, Mr. Brian Lund, I know you normally have to go at the top of the hour.
I want to make sure we can get some of your thoughts in here.
How are you doing, sir?
Good, good.
A lot of stuff been covered so far, so I'm not going to retread that ground.
I'm just going to talk real quick about a conversation I've been having with maybe half a dozen friends of mine that were around trading in the 90s.
of mine that were around trading the 90s. When the 90s were over, we used to say to each other,
wow, we'll never see a market like that again. I mean, these are markets. I have a buddy who
worked at a desk job there and he would day trade on the side. And one day he just put on this
massive order and he set five sell limits at 20 point increments higher,
turned his computer off, went to lunch, came back and was up $150,000. That's the kind of market we
had where things were going up 50, 60, 80 points in a clip. Companies that had no product,
not even anything on the horizon of a product. We're just going
through the roof. And we used to say there's never going to be a market like this again.
Well, I think we're in a market like that again. And I've been trying to talk with my buddies that
were there and say, where do you think we are in this market? We're going from 1990, which is kind
of when it all started to 2000, when it blew up, when
we had the dot-com explosion.
Like, where do we think we are if we had to guess?
And obviously, you're never going to know.
But based upon the irrational exuberance, some of the ridiculous stuff that's happening,
like, where do we think we're at?
And the consensus is we're somewhere in 98, right?
We're like maybe a year, two years, maybe three from when this thing all goes bad.
And it's going to go bad. Like this is going to go so horribly bad.
And people that have been trading for two years, five years, maybe even 10 years, they're going to see something like they've never seen before.
Because we just are, you know, we're in a degenerate economy.
Everybody is a trader.
Everybody is in the market.
Everybody is gambling.
Instruments that are derivatives of other instruments that have nothing underneath them are going to the moon.
So it's going to end bad.
But between now and when it ends bad, there's going to be generational money to be made. I mean,
obviously some people have already made generational money, but there's going to be
opportunities. I think what's really important for people that are listening to the space right now
is you better make sure you have a methodology that's risk-based. And I mean, not that you think
you have one or one that bails you out every time buyers come in. Because when this thing finally
does go away, it's not going to be how much money you made, it's going to be how much money you
kept. There's a famous trader from the 90s, Dan Zanger, maybe some people know his name.
And he famously turned an account of a few thousand dollars into like 89 million, right?
And it's all documented and it was all audited
and everything the amazing thing isn't that he did that a lot of people did that the amazing
thing is that he kept about 70 65 to 70 percent of it when the dot-com uh market blew up and so i i
just would encourage people who things are great now Now people are making money. You just, you know, you roll out of bed an hour after the market opens,
your counts up $30,000.
Great.
But it's not going to last forever.
So this is a good time to be,
you know,
testing your methodologies,
testing your risk parameters,
knowing why you're in a position when you would get out of it.
Because,
you know,
if I'm right,
and this is bigger than it was at the.com implosion, you're going to lose 10 years out of the market.
I mean, it was 16 years before we got back up to the dot-com highs.
So, and it was three years before we even hit the lows.
So it's going to be a long, long time.
long time. Again, not saying it's going to happen tomorrow. I am not bearish. I just think people
Again, not saying it's going to happen tomorrow.
I am not bearish.
need to really make sure they know what they're doing and then double check that about seven or
eight times because you don't want to look back in three, four, five, seven years and say, God,
I had all that money on the table and I let it ride and it went away.
went away.
Appreciate you, Brian.
A couple minutes here until
we close out.
Let's see. Blake,
you're hanging out with us today.
Blake, do you have a talk during the conversation?
Hey, guys. I bet he hates that.
I bet he hates that, Evan.
There was a phase where you got a lot of blockade,
but I'm sure it doesn't happen much anymore.
I will tell you, you won't even believe this.
My brother-in-law is Aaron.
So he was one of the other idiots called out in the classroom.
But that's an all-time skit.
It always brings a smile to my face when I hear that.
So, yeah, I mean, at this point this point i mean we're an hour in so most things have been covered um like sentiment i think is more
favorable than it has been in in weeks and months um i still think it's interesting that large
speculators are still pretty weekly positions so i think that's you that large speculators are still pretty weakly positioned so i think that's
you know potentially more fuel for upside but um how and when that manifests itself you never know
cyclicals have been outpacing defensives a lot of tech strength so i don't want to kind of rehash
this but interesting because we've talked to like we've been weaving in and out of earnings
and the multiple and uh brian with his nice doom and gloom outlook um love you brian i eventually
not now eventually no i'm it trust me it gets me laughing and i 100 agree everyone always needs to
be working on like their exit, making sure that the risks are
covered, not for just this moment, next week or whatever, but exactly what you're saying. You got
to have an exit strategy, an exit plan. You got to know when it is for you. It's not going to be
the same for me. I'm a much longer term investor, so I don't look nearly at this day to day stuff that a lot of you guys do.
But I would just sort of note what I think is pretty interesting is a lot of and I was on TV last week and I got this question asked a lot about the ball.
And, you know, is it justified? Is it a reason to sell?
And we know that valuation is just sort of like a general guide in terms of
confidence and what people are willing to pay and it's not really like a timing mechanism
I would just sort of think of it this I was I've heard like Nicholas on this recently of data track
Tom Lee has talked about this um and I just kind of, you know, if anyone has an opinion, but more like,
if you imagine where the market was pre-COVID versus where we are now, the market is only
one and a half turns higher on the multiple for the S&P, right? So over that five-whatever-ish year period, we have gone through these major extinction level or Black Swan type events.
And again, that's not saying that this was only true to this era and it's not going to happen any other time.
But when you think about 2020, once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, 2022, it was like the inflation surge to 50 year
highs.
Then we had the fastest interest rate hikes in cycle or interest rate hiking cycle in
history.
Just recently, we had, you know, a potentially like nuclear war.
I don't know how realistic it was that we got there, but there were bombs dropping all over.
We knew Iran was building something.
The U.S. actually had to get involved back on the ground over there.
So the situation was scary.
So we had all of these things.
And I guess I just kind of turn it over to the group. economy, this market is so battle-tested at this point.
Like, not only did companies endure through that craziness,
but they've been growing earnings along that.
Now, again, a lot of that is MAG-7 and it's tech-related,
so it's not uniformly distributed.
But, fuck, we live in a market-cap-weighted world, right? So I think that has to mean something.
I guess I would just sort of,
I'm curious to hear anyone's opinion as to like, do the multiples of like the 70s and 80s, do they really have any bearing as to the companies now with like technology and innovation that we have?
Are we structurally anything? Or is that just like short termism? This is recency bias. I'm not,
you know, I'm not young or I'm not old enough.
I've only been doing this 20 years.
But I'm just curious, like what people think about that. Is it appropriate to potentially be in a structurally different regime in terms of multiples?
Not only are the companies different.
What I would also say is the amount of people
investing in the market is also different you're seeing an expansion of international markets
you know i think you could debate it but i i don't see how i i feel like everything points
towards multiples would be higher in the future than they were the past and then of course it'll
be you know to like brian's point as soon as there's the turn right and it will be coming
i don't know if that's next month or it's now
because we have earnings that are low
and maybe we come in lower.
Although I do think, as someone noted,
like-
Speaking on, by the way,
Texas Instruments did release EPS,
141, beating expectations of $1.33,
revenue of 4.44 billion,
beating expectations of 4.3 billion,
Texas Instruments.
Most of the bad guys, they're getting punished down seven percent i see monitors hand up on the valuations
i also i did cut blake off there so he might not finish what he was saying no you're good i mean
i was i was just more curious as to like what what people think about that idea i i know people want to
like anchor to history it's it's it's always helpful trust me i use this all the time in my
own work you got to look at like historical analogs to try to at least assign probabilities
or upside and downside type scenarios um the multiple is rich. I keep hearing it in every podcast on any news. I don't
really watch the news, but when it's on, I feel like people are gravitating towards it. And I'm
wondering if when that turn comes, because look, I mean, the momentum in the market is there.
The amount of, I forgot what the stat is, it's all over Twitter, like the amount of days the S&P and the NASDAQ have not had like 1% down days and how far we've
been above the 20-day for moving average for as many days. So I get that there's going to be some
sort of pullback, whether that's 3%, 4% standard run of the mill, or if it's like 7, 8, maybe people
then point to the multiple and say, you know that was that was the reason maybe
maybe not but i mean i think that's like really short term in nature i am of the opinion that we
could be in this sort of what brian was saying kind of like this just major expansion and
technological innovation sort of like the internet and all the dot-com stuff except this is this is
different that perhaps ai is not just like selling bullshit, plastic internet routers, but like actually utilizing our, you know, our, our economy and our workforce at a much higher pace.
So that you can assign a structurally different multiple.
just looking at like you know the 30-year average on the s&p which is like a 17 17 and a half and
we're at 21 22 so maybe maybe it's just not a fair comparison and perhaps we should stop
using that as an excuse for a sell-off that's coming plake i would say that some of those
numbers that you're seeing on on fin twit like you know number of days above the ADMA or haven't had a 1% pullback. I think those
are a little bit deceptive because those are numbers that are based upon, you know, let's just
say 50, 60 years of different markets than we're in now and also in quote unquote normal times.
It doesn't surprise me that we have these crazy stats because we had a man-made crash in the
market and so i just sort of think to myself if we didn't have that where would we be right now
relate relative to where the highs were before that happened so i think we're i think we're a
little bit in a distorted market right now it's kind of like you know like when when markets crash
you see all the people come out and sell
annuities to people and people buy the annuities because they know that we're in a distorted
market and it's going to eventually come back. So they take advantage of it. I just think there's a
lot of people that are taking advantage of data and stats and putting out really cool, interesting
things that may not be super
applicable to the very short term that we're in right now. Now, in terms of multiples,
it's hard to speak to that. But I think in order to have a structure in the market change,
you need an increasingly larger and larger pool of investors. And we've been getting that over
the last 10, 20 years. When I was starting
out, if you wanted to open up a brokerage account, it took a week and a half and it was physical
paperwork you had to do. Now a 13-year-old can do it on their phone. That removes friction.
So we've seen this friction removed over the last 10 years. That means more people are coming into
the market. The market is becoming more international, which means more buyers, more sellers. So I think there are structural things
that are happening in the market. But the one thing that never changes in the market is greed
and fear. And I think that's where the problem is going to come is that at some point when everybody
has gotten to the top of their greed and someone decides, okay, I'm going to pull the plug and that cascades down. That's what I think will probably undo this market. But until then,
I think it's really hard to use historical numbers and metrics and impose them on the type of market
we're in right now. Just quickly, a couple more earnings out, sorry. Intuitive Sergio came out,
EPS was a beat revenue was a beat I'll
get you forward guidance a little bit later capital Capital One missed revenue EPS actually
looks pretty weak there but that could be a one-time expense I did also see nphase reported
intuitive surgical was down to nphase which reported EPS of a small beat revenue of a small beat as well that stock is moving higher and then uh
yeah I was gonna say all the solar names are up on the back of it 15 to 20 percent take your pick
there we go Capital One moving a little higher as well uh sorry you can go to you guys or actually
now Capital One just went down but a lot of earnings did just cross there hey wolf by the way cg is already up maybe what you said is happening
yeah i saw it was up six percent after hours i think it's on the back of knee
biggest u.s grid sets capacity price at record 329.17 milliwatt hours per day or something.
I don't know what that is,
but maybe that's what that headline is also it moved off of.
Yeah, the other thing, Montev,
I don't disagree with you about the, you know,
the PEs or whatever, the multiples,
but some of these companies,
they're going to have, I think, a sizable expansion
given where their footprint is with some of these data centers,
some other things happening down there. So like take a look at ETR, for example, it's located in
those Gulf states where a lot of these servers and a lot of these farms are going. So I don't know,
but I do think just from a trading perspective, that's all I was talking about.
No, no, I agree with you. Look, we probably have a step function expensive in history.
And that is something to consider before looking at it as a safety trade.
That's it.
Yeah, 100%. I was just talking about the mechanics.
100%, though.
I agree with you.
No argument here.
Hey, can I respond to some of the stuff that Blake was talking about?
Yeah, please do.
Okay.
So a couple of things, right?
I mean, look, valuation is stretched, but we've also seen earnings growth and revenue growth
really being sustained for for a while now and and and you know and and and the company's
cost structure being managed very well right yeah there's capex but a lot of that is coming from
internally derived cash flow and if you have the kind of margin that tech has and at these prices and multiples,
CapEx is a better use of money than a buyback, for example.
So in that sense,
we are in a very different market compared to .com.
I do agree in general terms with what Brian was talking about.
I was there in .com.
In fact, I was there here in the Valley at that time
and I know how it was
here right it was it was it was something else but i think there is a lot better uh financial
situation in most of tech but not all of it there there are plenty of tech companies which are purely priced for
you know sustaining this level of growth into the into the near future and if things break down
that's not going to happen so you're going to see multiple compression there there are also
shit costs that are you know similar to better than or worse than, you know, the dot-com situation,
where you could see most of them quickly go to zero because there's really no sustainable
business there in the first place, which was the case with all these PowerPoint companies
during dot-com.
So there is some parallel, but it doesn't mean, you know, I mean, look, Cisco is barely coming to its levels, you know, back from dot-com heights.
Would we see NVIDIA get there? Yeah, but for that, other things have to happen.
You know, we're going to have to see, you know, the entire, you know, CapEx spend breakdown.
you know, CapEx spend breakdown.
I think it will be a slower process
for the good companies
than it was during dot-com
and probably a much faster process
for shitcos and companies
that are purely driven by,
you know, forward growth multiples.
By the way, another headline,
Zuckerberg stealing another
researcher from the company,
Google, this time. Three researchers leaving.
And there's a story that Microsoft was doing
something too earlier.
I just saw they stole
Monitive Wealth away from Google.
Yeah, Monitive monitor wealth shares have
now been converted over to meta shares he will now be talking about meta on
social media thank you for your attention to this matter
Blake I don't have to move I have to just go 101 north instead of 101 so
that's it.
Blake, did you want to respond back to any of that?
Any of the pieces that Bonit have just said on there?
I know, Brian, also, you were trying to talk before, too.
A few thoughts on there as well.
No, I mean, those are... They make really great points.
It's just something I wrestle with for, I mean, these are conversations that I have. I'm a portfolio manager for an RIA. So these are conversations that we have with not like every a recent pushback just, you know, over the last.
I mean, it's just interesting, like the psychology you go through.
I feel like I've gone through a full market cycle of psychology just in six months where it's like, you know, everyone was so euphoric over Trump getting elected. And then it was sort of this breadth divergent, like the index was sort of still painting
new highs in early mid-February, and we weren't seeing the confirmation from breadth.
And then it was people getting a little nervous, and then the tariff talk started to latch up.
So then it was kind of like, let's de-risk, we're nervous.
And then, of course, the bottom fell out.
And then, I mean, I've been doing this since the GFC.
I want to say this was maybe, I mean, I was right out of college.
So it's hard to say, but I think people were losing their shit just as much,
or if not more, with the tariff stuff than they were back then.
I don't know if that's just because we have way more access to information information moves faster uh this was different of course just because no one was losing
their jobs day after day um but then of course you get the recovery and it's all of a sudden
kind of this fomo and the euphoria is back and then kind of full circle with you know these
recent conversations it's like you know if i fresh powder it's like you know, these recent conversations, it's like, you know, if I have fresh powder, it's like, you know, what are the opportunity sets now in front of us? And they're like staring
at this multiple. And I'm trying to explain, well, like, you know, if you normalize it,
maybe you look at the equal weight, we're like, you know, four or five clicks lower.
If, you know, you go on my argument, which I think we're just going to be in a structurally higher
sort of new regime.
Sure, you're going to get pullbacks along the way, but I don't think like you can just like stare at the multiple and say like that was the reason why.
It would be nice, though, just to start to see like the last two years, it's all it's all been, you know, the mag seven and the extension of tech, it's not just them, but again, because they carry so much market weight,
it would just be nice to start to see some of the other levers being pulled. And, you know,
we heard from the financials last week, they were strong. I think deregulation helps them.
I think if this economy does continue to open up and we do really have some of this pull forward
from like all the fiscal stimulus, you know, industrials could start to really work under that.
I mean, if you're seeing a lot of the hallmarks of the bull market and that your offensive leader is leading, which is what you want to see.
I think you just you got to lean into that and know that there's probably still room to run it, you know, over the next year or two and obviously manage risk accordingly on the way.
Yeah, I think, like you said before too, valuation multiples aren't really a great timing signal in the first place.
But, you know, we're also sitting at all time multi-decade highs and operating margins for
S&P 500 companies.
We're not even at a peak yet in terms of peak multiple.
Like, you know, we were a couple of points higher even for the overall indices in 99-2000.
So I don't know.
My personal opinion is like there's no reason multiple can't expand further here.
Not that I necessarily want to bet on that for S&P,
but all-time high operating margins in the S&P,
very consistent CAGR of earnings growth
over the last decade, decade and a half,
highly kind of monetary supportive environment
in terms of growth of the money supply,
things like that,
like nominal earnings growth continues probably in the foreseeable future. There are some risks, like AI investment
bubble potentially at some point. I do think the MAG-7 is going to have some headwinds from
the massive, massive expansion, particularly for companies like Meta, Microsoft, and Google
in the CapEx budgets. Just over the last last two years they've basically more than doubled their capex budgets and that
that feeds through to the income statement be a depreciation so they've got to find ways to
to keep growing revenue in the next couple years otherwise that depreciation starts to actually hit
earnings growth uh so there's some risk there from the ai side there's risks from you know the
trade war creating some pressures inflationary pressures You know, there's always going to be some black swan risks out there, too.
But overall, hard to hard to say that, like, S&P valuation multiple is the reason to sell your stocks at this point.
Yeah, I think those are all fair.
It's just something that continues to come up.
I honestly just wanted to pick the brain of the group and sort of hear what everyone else's thoughts were.
So I appreciate it.
I mean, stocks never really crashed because of the multiples, right?
I mean, that's never the catalyst.
But it's just something people point to, right?
Yeah, right.
It's always something we point to.
Right, yeah.
I think people point to, like, when we talk about, like, markets being expensive,
I think people point to that, like, after markets correct. And then they're like, about like markets being expensive, I think people point to that like after markets correct.
And then they're like, look, markets were expensive.
But I mean, the reality is, is markets
can stay expensive for years.
And it's usually some sort of exogenous shock
that starts the unwind, right?
Whether that's in the macroeconomic data
or something in the rate cut narrative
or something else like COVID. I mean, that's what
causes what starts causing the selling, right? Most other selling is relatively controlled. Now,
the tariff tantrum from April 2nd is obviously an exception to that. We have 10% corrections
all the time. We had two last year. Those tend to be pretty controlled if you're technically
literate and you're watching the charts.
I mean, I think even the last two days of action, obviously, there's a lot of noise about it on Twitter because it's momentum names that have been sold in the last two days. But you look at
the overall market, you look at the indexes, they look absolutely fine. And to me, it's just
textbook rotation. I mean, even if you look at some of the pullbacks in the market leading momentum
names today, yesterday, I mean, you don't need to be a rocket scientist or a technical whiz.
Just pull up your chart, pull up your moving averages.
A lot of very, very clean, orderly, low volume pullbacks.
Like you're going to see that.
I mean, stocks don't go up in a straight line.
I don't think market leading stocks are on the verge of being banished here or anything.
But I do think there's some laggards
in the market that need to perform. And, you know, for me, I have 20 names in the portfolio right now.
I had about what? One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12 green, nine red
today. The ones that were red were mostly slightly red, no pullbacks into or below any major levels.
no pullbacks into or below any major levels.
So, I mean, I remain pretty fine with the action, broadly speaking.
Is there going to be a correction?
Yes, there always are corrections.
Do I think we're desperately in need of one as much as some people are implying?
I don't know if I fall into that camp.
I mean, we had a pretty historic correction in terms of speed post April 2nd.
Like in terms of the speed of the unwind, especially on the market leading names, it was pretty, it was pretty, pretty big pullback.
Right.
When you look at you look at a lot of the market leading names now, which have doubled off the lows, but you look at what they did in April.
I mean, many of them fell all the way down to their 200-day moving averages. You're talking about stocks that were 40, 50% removed from their 200-day moving averages that went back and
revisited them, bounced, recovered. I think one thing about recoveries post-correction
is they tend to get contextualized incorrectly. Have a lot of stocks doubled off the April lows?
Yeah, but they got cut in half first. It like it's not like it's not like we were
dealing like the base effect is different right like if stocks hadn't pulled back let's say let's
say the tariff tantrum had never happened let's say we had in in april we had a five percent
correction instead of what we got and then stocks doubled yeah that would be that would probably be
a pretty big sign of froth if stocks doubled
intra-year from a flat base but they didn't double from a flat base they doubled from 30 40 50 60
percent pullbacks into their 200 day moving averages is that is that sort of recovery bearish
or is it like you know if you look at the shorter time frames are we extended on a lot of market
leading stocks yeah but i mean that's also why you've seen many of them unwind five to 7% two days in a row in the last two sessions and may unwind further into the end
of the week. But you may end up taking a glance at some of those daily or weekly charts and be like,
wow, these stocks pulled back into the nine-week EMA or into the daily 21 EMA. Is that a bad thing
for stocks that have doubled in the last 30 to 60 days?
I don't think so.
So I do think there's a tendency when market leaders tend to stall to automatically assume
it's a market top.
I don't really fall into that camp of people.
But, you know, I think if you continue to monitor broader technical structure in the
indexes and keep an eye on the individual names that you may
own or for those of some of you don't own individual names and are just etf investors
that's fine too but um you know keep an eye on the individual names you know and keep on the
eye on the general technical structure in the indexes and i think you'll be able to see when
the warning signs are coming but i don't see them yet i mean i think you know again we talked about
froth earlier i wasn't i didn't trade the dot-com bubble you know i again, we talked about froth earlier. I wasn't, I didn't trade the dotcom
bubble. You know, I've, I only started trading 12 years ago, but I've studied it and, you know,
I would hesitate to compare the megatech names of today to the megatech names of then just from
an earnings standpoint, that's point one, but point two, I think the areas of froth that you've seen in the last two months, to me, have been mostly concentrated in smaller market caps.
Now, there's been a little bit of it in larger names.
But if we were to group up the Jobys and the Crispers and the gene editing names and the bitcoin treasury names we're gonna group all
these up and add up their market caps you might get to like 250 billion so it's like is that
important i don't know and maybe i mean maybe it's an early sign of like just this broader
froth that's going to come when this rotation is complete but i i just think it's difficult to call markets,
call tops and markets just due to froth because it's a really anecdotal signal
and there's no like hard,
there's no froth indicator
that everyone in the world looks at.
There's no like thing that you just pull up on your screen.
It says like, you know,
some people look at CNN fear and greed,
which I think is a stupid indicator.
I think all the fear and greed indexes are stupid,
just in my opinion.
If you look at the way they're constructed, it's just like market goes up, it interprets
it as fear.
Market goes down and interprets it.
Sorry, vice versa.
Market goes up, it interprets it as greed.
Market goes down and interprets it as fear.
That's like pretty useless information for me personally, as far as indicators go.
But yeah, I don't know.
I'll wait for the indexes to start breaking down before I
start getting defensive. And some people may want to do it in advance of that to avoid that like
minus 2% day in the indexes where stocks get cut off. I'm not really worried about that. So
yeah, I remain in a pretty neutral stance. Do I think that, you know, not even neutral,
my portfolio, I remain in a bullish stance. But I mean, I remain in a neutral stance in terms of when the correction is coming. I have
no clue. Could happen tomorrow, could happen next week. You know, I'll adapt when the indexes start
breaking down, but we're just not there yet. I mean, SPI hasn't even given up the 9 EMA yet,
and we're talking about like the market turning around. I just feel like it's premature. So,
you know, I won't nail the top. Didn't even touch it today. Yeah, we didn't even touch it today.
We didn't even get to it.
Exactly.
And we confirmed, we retested the, I think paper posted this.
We retested the previous NFP highs today perfectly and balanced.
So it's like, I don't know.
People don't want to sell the indexes yet.
Until people want to sell the indexes, that's when I'll get concerned.
But, like, if SPY is going to hold up and not give any, like, like, there was every reason for a sell-off in the indexes yesterday with momentum fading,
and we didn't get it. Like, you know what I mean? People don't contextualize that. I try to
contextualize that and say, like, that's not bearish, you know? And again, I just ride the,
like, I dance with the music. I say this all the time.
I dance with the music while it's playing.
And when the music is stopped playing, if you're technically literate, you will know.
You will know.
You won't have to like have anyone on the panel tell you.
You won't have to like listen to a news report or a headline that tells you.
I mean, that may be the catalyst, but the price action will tell you.
You know, when you stop seeing this incredible
strength and like even today like off the open a bunch of my names are down a lot by midday they
were bought up off the load you know that's what when we were we they do the live trading thing
all day and i was saying as we were getting to the bottom listen if this is what the market has
been for the last little bit we're probably going to end this day uh right about even you know uh maybe we fell
a little bit below that but like i had names this morning that closed green the strong internet
market they were down five or six percent off the open that closed green i had other names that
were down seven or eight percent that closed down two percent like is it you know is it, you know, is it arena scenario where you can call this like action exhaustive?
Yeah, I think you can.
I think that's a fair assessment to make to say, hey, the momentum leaders are getting
exhausted.
And that's just that's just me anecdotally speaking.
I'm not looking at any indicator to say that.
I just look at hundreds of stocks every day, all day.
That's my job.
And when I wake up in the morning and I see moves getting faded super hard
into the open, yeah, that's generally an anecdotal sign of exhaustion. Does it mean the market's
going to unwind? No. Those two things do not go in. Exhaustion does not always necessarily lead
to corrective action. In fact, I would argue that in bull markets, most of the consolidation periods do look more like exhaustion than they do like breakdowns because you're in a bull market.
Right. So you see this sort of volume fizzle out.
You see stocks have these minus three, minus four percent days, you know, three or four selling days, low volume pullbacks into 21 EMAs.
The catalysts sort of start to fade and then boom, out of nowhere, catalysts
start hitting the tape again, stocks rebound off the 21 EMAs. That's what's happened for the last
five years. It's not just like novel to this year. That's been the story of the better part
of the last five years outside of maybe 2022, because buying dips in that year was a death
sentence. But outside of that year, that's pretty much been the MO of the market. And so until that attitude changes, I mean, who am I to say it's going to change now?
So I'll wait.
I'll wait for market attitude to change.
But today's action, yesterday's action did not concern me at all.
I flipped through the charts of everything I own.
And I was like, I don't see any breakdowns.
So why would I be panicking?
So yeah, that's kind of my 360 view on where we are.
Brian, I saw you unmute during that.
Let's go to Kirk after that.
Not here for Brian, unfortunately, but I do hear you, Kirk.
How are you doing?
Doing well. How are you doing, sir?
Good. A lot of great points.
Brian said something that I think will be important over time.
I'm not so sure it's terribly important now,
is that when you take a look at the market,
you've got to figure out where the new money is coming from.
But you can also, because of demographics, think about where the old bunny is going.
At some point, the boomers will start to withdraw from the market, and that will be a big deal
if the millennials can't contribute more than the boomers are pulling out.
So I think the math says that's several years away yet, but we do know that it's not just the individual
investors you have to think about it's the pensions the boomers have pensions that they're
drawing on so those pensions and you can follow this in institutional investor magazine are
they're no longer taking contributions really they're just about to get to the point
of net redemption depending on which pension but in aggregate they to get to the point of net redemption, depending on which pension.
But in aggregate, they're right at the edge of net redemptions. So that's coming. The millennials,
though, are entering peak earning years, and they're a bigger generation at this point.
So we will see if the changes in wage structure and savings habits, We'll see how that plays out.
But the hope is that there's more millennial money going in than boomer money coming out.
I think that if we get QE again, for sure that'll happen.
I think the odds of getting QE again are almost a certainty
given the debt situation.
So I see a lot of volatility over time.
I'm not excited to be an S&P 500 investor. I think
that they're going to have it the worst off. But the stock pickers here, and Stock Talk talked
about this last week, I think the stock pickers can continue to do very, very well. I was around
at the end of the dot com and Stock Talk pointed out a whole different world of earnings.
There were no earnings back then.
There's lots of earnings now.
So the fact that we have the fourth or fifth highest PE ratio in history,
I don't know that that is a static thing that you can say,
well, looking at 100 years, fourth or fifth highest, it should correct.
I don't know. I think that you get volatility for sure. However, I don't know if this is 1998 or 1999
because everything isn't lined up for a collapse. I have told my subscribers, expect corrections. I don't think that we have a crisis until near the end of the decade
just based on, A, the ability of the United States to bail ourselves out with quantitative easing,
and B, I just don't see the demographic situation smacking us in the head
until sometime between most studies will say 2029.
Some of them said this next year.
But 2029 to 2035 is kind of the range where not planning for the boomer retirement
for the last 45 years probably smacks us in the head.
But can we do QE to get out of it again?
Probably.
I don't think we're going to choose the depression.
I think we'll choose QE
because it's the easy thing to do. So then you deal with some inflation like you did after COVID.
So I really am bullish on the things that I want to be in, right? I like a lot of these secular
stories. So I got one of them for you today, and then I'm going to talk about Kohl's because that's fun. But the solar stocks are rallying off of a bottom. Tan was down around 30, and now it's
up to 41, I think. If you take a look at the top 10 holdings, that is largely propelled by a few
stocks. Solar Edge, coming back from the dead, Enphase a little bit, and First Solar.
And then a couple of the other ones by market cap and holding size and TAN. So take a look at those
holdings, then overlay those charts with TAN, and you can see SolarEdge was a big deal. Now,
I don't know in this environment how that's going to hold up.
I happen to believe that there's a coin flip, at least, chance that the next reconciliation bill,
which will be next year before the elections, will bring back a lot of the solar subsidies.
I think the wind stuff is gone, but there's enough people who want the solar subsidies or something to help the solar companies back.
Because they employ a lot of people.
They employ a lot of people.
Sorry, that's not...
I am a little curious about his deep hatred for wind.
Well, I don't know if it's just a target to go after it or something, to absorb it.
Or maybe it is actually bad.
I don't know.
But it's a weird one.
He bugs birds.
Yeah, it's ugly, right? He doesn't know, but it's a weird one. Yeah, it's ugly, right?
He doesn't like it because it's ugly.
Fine.
But the reality is that wind has physics working against it because of friction.
So solar is just way more economical than wind.
So whether it's just because it's ugly
or because scaling it up doesn't really make a lot of sense,
then fine. And I'm a tree-hugging
liberal, man. I mean, you tell me clean energy, I'm all over it, but wind doesn't make a lot of
economic sense. Water's pretty good, though. What was that? Hydro's good. Oh, yeah. I mean,
where you can get it, right? So, you know, there's a lot of good things out there.
So, you know, there's a lot of good things out there.
But I think the solar stocks that TJ Rogers basket I talked about, you just covered the
end phase earnings.
I sold the October $40 cash secure puts on end phase about an hour ago, and I got $4.05,
I think.
So I got an internal annualized rate of return of around 40%.
The stock is going up. If it doesn't get put to me, that's great. I made a 40% annualized return
in three months. If it does get put to me, I've got a net cost of 36. I'd be happy with that.
So that's the logic behind that. Enovix was up today again. SunPower was even up a little bit today,
although I think that they have a longer road to hoe. My baby, Emetis, was up again. That,
I think, is largely because they hired the CFO in India, who is going to take the debt-free
biggest biofuels refinery in India public either late this year or next year. And that's going to take the debt-free biggest biofuels refinery in India public either late this year
or next year. And that's going to free up a lot of money, you know, 50 million minimum,
probably a couple hundred million. So that one was going up. But Kohl's. So my mom worked at
Kohl's when I was a kid. And I followed Kohl's my entire career. I knew Herb Kohl. And the interesting thing that I'm seeing, and I went back after I saw an article on Seeking Alpha and then I went to the Reddit thread.
bullshit about Kohl's that they're talking to spin this stock up. First off, they're throwing
out numbers like the real estate is worth $7 billion. Bullshit. The real estate, and I've
tried to buy three malls with partners and we get outbid. And we just looked at Kohl's real estate
to potentially buy because they had some for sale. The land has value. So if you're taking a look at Reddit or the article on Seeking Alpha
or wherever else this stuff is getting thrown out there by nitwits, is the land value is showing up
on the balance sheet as a billion bucks. It's probably worth two billion. But the building
value is showing up at like six or seven billion. That's probably only worth a billion.
If you take a look at what Oak Street offered, they offered $2 billion as a leaseback deal.
Why?
Well, private equity firms are always looking to double their money in 5, 6, 7 years.
So a price of $2 billion means that they value all that real estate at about $4 billion
with some appreciation over time and interest rates falling.
Okay, so what is this meme rally?
Well, I do think that Kohl's was undervalued in single digits,
and we sold cash-secured puts on it a couple months ago,
so we're just going to take that gain.
However, the idea that Kohl's is worth $60 or $70 a share anymore
with a shrinking business is insane.
They have had four or five managements in a row
that were terrible post the people who ran it with Herb Cole.
Almost all the managements after that have been bad
and then got worse all the way through,
culminating in the guy who was dating somebody
or steered some business to somebody he was dating,
resigning recently.
So, you know, Coldplay bailed him out on that,
I guess. So, you know, you take a look at Kohl's and what is it worth? I don't know. If I'm a
private equity guy, I don't really want Kohl's the company unless I'm a retail specialist and I think
I can turn it around. And I do think it can be turned around. The last couple of managements couldn't do it.
The real estate is probably worth $3-ish billion, give or take.
If Kohl's really wants to monetize that, they don't sell it at a discount price to private equity.
What they should do is either take on debt and then refinance it cheaper down the road or...
By Bitcoin?
Pardon? By Bitcoin? Pardon?
By Bitcoin seems to be the theme.
Well, I think they should develop it.
If you take a look at their land, which I have,
there's all kinds of land they can redevelop
and make it, you know, get way more money per square foot,
you know, by adding residential and mixed use.
But they haven't had a dynamic
leadership that could do that. So I don't know what happens to Kohl's. I mean, it's a hometown
company. They're moving to downtown Milwaukee from a suburb. I want them to succeed. You know,
emotionally, I would like to see them do well, but I can't put my money in there. Right. I mean,
if it's a trade for you right now, then great. Just understand this company is not
worth $60 or $70 a share. I think at a billion to $2 billion, it's fair value. And right now,
it's at a billion. It just got back to a billion. So I don't know. Is there another double in it?
Maybe, maybe, maybe there is. Is there some FOMO to go even higher? Hey, you know, Stock Talk
mentions this every time he gets
on a rant. Markets can be irrational a long time. So I don't know where it's going, but it is not
worth $60 or $70 a share. Anybody who's saying that is a moron and you should call them a moron
and you should laugh at them a little bit because they have no idea what they're talking about.
And this is coming from a guy who has maybe, you know, has tried to or at least looked
into buying some of their real estate with some partners.
So, you know, some of these meme stocks are just nonsensical when it comes to valuation
and what you can do with the business or the assets.
But hey, they're really cool to trade if you get in on the ground floor and sell a little
bit early.
So I would just encourage everybody who's in that trade, sell a little bit early because
it ain't going to 60 or 70 unless they GameStop it or AMC it.
I mean, maybe they do that, but it's not a game that I would play.
I appreciate you, Kirk.
Let's get over to Logical.
Sitting here patiently, we appreciate you being here.
Logical, what's going on in your world?
How's stuff looking for you?
Well, I'm going to tell you this right now. I'm having a splendid time in this
moment because, you know, I talk about the bios and one of them, which I basically have been,
you know, following really, really smart guys on bio Twitter, like only the best ones,
not the guys who talk about the same five retail tickers, the ones that are really deep in the weeds
on the sciences.
And they talked about one, ABVX, the guy who pitched Nectar, his name's Adam May.
He's really smart, very diligent.
He just posted ABVX, I think yesterday morning.
And I said, you know what, man, this guy, he's smart.
I'm going to tail him on this one because it was a pitch just as big as his Nectar one.
And literally right now the stock is halted, ticker ABVX.
They just released really, really good data, like incredibly good, like white swan level.
So the stock is halted right now. And I'm a
little, I'm excited and scared at the same time of how good that can be. But yeah, I mean, from all
the smart science guys that I follow and talk to, they're all basically saying, you know, this is a
five to 10x kind of scenario with this data that just came through. So I'm very happy I took a, you know, 2.4% position, which may not seem like a lot.
But, you know, in these scenarios where it's binary risk, yes or no,
the downside could be immense.
You know, I think position sizing is the way that you kind of handle
some of those scenarios.
So I'm ecstatic to see what happens when we resume trading here so we'll see obviously
tomorrow will be a very big day for the stock I heard Wolfie I can move on I heard Wolfie talk
about a couple of the fast casual dining places like Sweetgreen I think that stock looks really
good and is a very strong uh if you look at the chart
it looks bottomed i know a lot of people are talking about you know this market is stretched
and you know there's not a lot of value there's not a lot of opportunities i want to push back
as hard as i possibly can on that i and what i would say to those people is to do more work
period i mean i can't i don't have enough i don't have enough cash for all the ideas I have.
I seriously, I'm at a point where there are so many fat pitches. They're just not in the same
30 to 50 tickers that every person on this platform talks about. So I think that if you
are willing to do the work, there's a ton to be excited about. I am right now, and I've been tweeting about this,
it's like, I am in my bottom fishing phase.
I mean, go look at the sweet green chart.
That thing is down like 75%.
Just today saw a lot of options flow.
I look at the fundamentals.
It looks pretty good to me.
And so, you know, I'm buying things like that.
You look at Copart, that got some options flow.
That thing is, you know, down 30% from its highs.
It's like a high quality compounder.
You look at Okta, undercut and rally of the 200 day, down 30, 40% from its highs.
Options flow coming in on that one.
I mean, there's GitLab, same thing, AI winner being pinned as an AI loser.
I mean, that thing's off 40, 50% from its highs.
And the fundamentals are very cheap. It's basically putting up the same top line
growth and bottom line margins as snowflake and trading at half the multiple.
Um, so the software, there's a lot of bargains in software right now, a lot of
bargains and bios. Um, I've talked about a lot of these bios trading just above
cash. I mean,
they're commercial bios too. Like I know ABVX is a clinical one, but I only have like three
clinical names. The other 10, 12 bio names that I hold are all commercial stage. And so these things
are at the bottom. I mean, they're at like all time lows. And, you know, I understand people want to just
buy the strong stocks. I want to buy the strong stocks before they become the strong stocks. And,
you know, I want to buy them and nobody's buying them. And I want to sell them to you when you
know, you're starting to get interested. So that's what I'm looking for. I'm looking for
re-rates across this market. I see them. So you just have to have an imagination.
see them. So you just have to have an imagination. You have to be willing to have build and hold
conviction. It's just really tough for me to sit here and say, oh, you know, this market is, you
know, there's nothing to buy here. Yeah, I'm not buying Microsoft at 35 times earnings or whatever
it's trading at. But if the backdrop of this market continues to stay strong, then that means that we will continue to see broader participation
in this bull market. Unless you feel that the bull market is over and we're going to roll over,
then yeah, I'd agree with you. Then nothing matters and fundamentals don't matter and all that,
you know, because bear markets, nobody cares anymore and they just sell anything at any price.
But that's not the case. We are in a bull market market a very strong one um and so i'm just very excited about the opportunities in this market and i'm
very excited for the fact that you know i hear people on here talking about there are no
opportunities and everything's overvalued because that that leaves a lot of opportunities for guys
like me who are looking around to see what's available. And believe me, there is a lot available.
So I would just say do more work.
That's all I have to say.
Logical.
I know I was looking at the heat map.
There are a couple green sectors in here today,
but one standing out quickly for me
was the healthcare one. I knew where we were going to go when I asked that.
They're showing capitulation levels of selling in the healthcare sector.
Meanwhile, I've been talking about biotech M&A picking up, and this year we're in July,
and we've had more M&A this year than in the last eight years so there's still
a lot of year left um i think the patent clips are coming and they're going to fill up their pipelines
and the thing about biotechs are while we've had a lot of sizable biotech buyouts so far this year
the majority of biotech companies are actually pretty small They're like small and mid caps, like really small mid caps at that.
So I don't know.
You know, I do have a big, big chunk of my portfolio in the bios, but I also have now a fairly big chunk in, you know, very, in my view, high quality names in software. And so I know it might not get people excited like, you know, Joby or Archer
Aviation, because that's really sexy right now. But I'm just not the type to, you know, hold
something that doesn't really have the fundamentals to that I can hold through volatility. I'm not
going to be able to build conviction because I'm a fundamental first kind of guy. But when I look
at something, I've always used this analogy. If analogy, if you're looking for a house, right?
And the average price of a house is,
let's say a million dollars in your neighborhood.
And I'm not gonna buy the $2 million house,
even though it has like a sick pool or whatever.
But if there's a $500,000 house
I can put a little work into,
and I can end up with something
that looks like
that $2 million house. That's a big value right there. So that's kind of how I think about these
things is like, you've got to understand that people think about value, relative value when
it comes to physical items in real life. Even if you're shopping at, you know, for stakes,
you're going to see the shitty stakes or you're going to see the really good stakes. Like,
my point is like, there is a difference in value between the stocks we're talking about. And inherently there's going to be value. If, you know, a dry age prime ribeye
is selling for, you know, $15 a pound, that's a buy. It's not a, you know, that should be going
for 40. So I don't care what anyone says. A lot of these businesses do have inherent value based
on the fundamentals because eventually they're going to be so cheap that they just have
to work because someone's going to be looking for that value. And I think it'll re-rate higher.
So people are going to buy up those deals. And that's kind of the story I'm sticking to is
I'm here first. And I'm finding these ideas now while everyone is fighting over, you know, the same thing and missing out for, you know, what the opportunities really are right now in the market.
And there is a ton of them.
I appreciate you, Logical.
Mr. Stock Talk, let's bring it around to to you i don't know if you have any thoughts on
yeah i'll talk a little bit about some individual names yeah um so cypher obviously was the top
performer for me today it's pretty big position for me um so it was above a eight percent position
going into today after today's move it is closer to a 9% position now in the portfolio
but moved up 11% higher today I've been talking a lot about this one the last few weeks I think
I've posted five or six tweets on it since it was in the fours we picked up at 429 a couple of weeks
ago a few weeks ago now and it's obviously done marvelously for us.
It hit seven today.
Shares are up 62.9% as of the close.
A lot of movement has been going on with these HPC names after the Coors deal.
You know, Iron, Cypher, Riot is another one that we're in.
That's up quite a bit. We got in sub 11. It's trading 14 now. The only two I have left are Cypher and Riot. I had a bigger basket
before, but these names all seeing, you know, continual volatility now, but Cypher has been
the standout from the volume standpoint. You today, it posted another 73 million volume.
It posted five highest volume every day in a row, which is, I can't emphasize how unusual that is.
That's like maybe I look at hundreds and hundreds of smid cap stocks every year.
That just does not happen.
Five days in a row of HV is like extremely rare.
I don't want to put a percentage on it but like
maybe one percent of stocks ever see that it's extremely rare so anyway i'm not surprised this
thing has held up you know a lot of momentum unwound yesterday this thing did not unwind
even during the pullbacks in the hpc names the last few weeks if if you just pull up Cypher's chart, CIFR, it was just high and tight
during this entire time, right? Defended the $6 spot. I mean, we had a little poke below to 586,
but defended the $6 spot pretty well, consolidated high and tight. And that's after a 40% move higher,
right? On a momentum name, on a theme name, it just didn't give back any. And then today,
you got another 10% move higher and
another huge 70 plus million volume candle. I mean, if you pull up the chart and just look,
if you have volume on your chart, which you should, but, um, you look at the bottom, I mean,
all the cells just trapped in between these massive skyscraper tower buy bars with 70 plus
million volume. I mean, that's not nothing. So I remain long on that
one. I have very, very comfortable position there because of the cost basis advantage.
You know, do I like that it's holding the 90 and made it the upside? Yeah.
This isn't a core position for me. So if it did come back down and let's say give up the 90 and
I'd probably be out of it. But for now, it's acting very, very, very well.
So I remain long on that name and was a nice portfolio carrier for us today.
Riot continues to do really well, just buzzing up every day.
I've started to notice that some of the Bitcoin miners, they're not going down anymore when Bitcoin goes down intraday.
And that is a behavior change.
These things have
been neglected for a long time as shitty businesses and make no mistake they are shitty businesses
that's why they're not core positions for me but um i do think an excellent trade has presented
itself over the last few weeks to get a cushion on these names early and then if you do see follow
through for bitcoin and we do see new all-time highs we're actually pushing 120 here again as
we speak but bitcoin does go back out and knock out those all-time highs.
It pushes 130.
I think these names are going to go even more parabolic than they already have.
So that's why I remain long on just two of those names.
Obviously, I have a position of a portfolio of 20 positions.
So it's not a huge part of the portfolio, but it is a pretty big size considering they're
waiting for both those positions is above 8%. Outside of those, there were some interesting ones. Materion I talked
about on Friday as a new position. That's my newest position, I guess you could say.
Took it with a little bit more weight than usual. Took it at 5%. I typically take new positions at
three and a half starter, but I took that at five on Friday.
We got a nice cushion with the intraday move on Friday.
So I'm up about, what am I up on shares here?
7.2% on shares, 89.79 costs, stock traded 96 today.
I remained fully long on that one.
I do like that it was green today and also green yesterday when momentum names were unwinding.
Most of the
materials and rare earth plays have been found and run right like you you leu which is which i remain
in um and a bunch of these other you know either they're at the periphery of rare metals or they're
directly involved in rare metals you saw what happened with mp obviously that stock went up
like 100 percent um and i think materion is probably the only one that hasn't run uh and it's now emerging above you know what
is this a several month base going back to march of this year popped above it on friday retook the
200 day i actually thought we were going to get a pullback immediately this week into retest that
200 day at 93.
That could still happen.
Stocks trading 96, so I would not be surprised to see it maybe come back down
into 93.25, confirm, and then move higher.
But I do like the volume profile here, very pretty as it emerges over this 200-day.
And, you know, when I first brought up UUUU,
which I ended up not being able to get my entry on anyway,
but a lot of people did well when I shared the idea, it had a very similar look to what
Materion has now.
And ironically, both in the rare earth metals category, but Materion now is testing the
200 week and 50 month moving averages simultaneously.
In fact, as of today's close, obviously the month isn't over yet, you were if the month were to be over today it would have closed over the 50 month
so by the end of the month if we get that close that will be bullish in my view and the 200 week
remains a little bit overhead at 97.39 you can take that out maybe into the end of this week
that'll also be bullish so i do like them to look on materion remain long on that one like i said that's my newest position don't have a huge cushion
on it like i do for most my other positions just seven percent on shares uh but yeah i remain long
and uh i do like the story there um if you want to listen to me explain the beryllium story behind
that i don't want to go over the whole thing again, but I went over it on our Friday show.
So you can go back and listen to the recording.
I usually speak at the end of the spaces as usual, but that one did well today.
Warby Parker.
Um, I don't know.
I know no one talks about the stock besides me, but I've been talking about it on these spaces for, I don't know, last couple of months months i think we initiated this when end of may
i believe let me go see yeah may 29th uh we opened this i've been in it for a while but
quiet and beautiful is what i would call this thing got in uh at 20 2017 2018 ish we're literally
right on this 90 ma test below the 100 day that's when we got in i
liked that action i like action when price is pinched below the 100 day with an upsloping 9
and 21 that's like my bread and butter technical setup but um that's where we got long thing
bursted through the two bursted through the 100 day sorry and has climbed the 21 EMA to the upside since is now curling out of the range.
Stock is 20% higher.
I know it's not the Jobys and the Cyphers and all these other names I've been in that
have doubled, but it has been a slow and steady winner for us.
And I didn't expect this thing to move as quickly as the thematically rich names that
we're in.
So I'm happy with it and I'm fine with it.
And, you know, my September calls are up a lot
and my shares are up 20%.
So I'm totally happy with Warby
and the way it's acting,
just climbing to the upside.
And, you know, a lot of talk about Google lately
and Google's strength.
I think indirectly,
this is a sympathy play on Google's hardware business, right?
They are Google's AI Glasses partner.
So I think in a way you get
maybe indirect, very indirect, but still some proxy exposure to Google with Warby as well.
And I think that's maybe part of the reason for its strength lately as well,
since Google has been showing some relative strength also. So I remain in Warby. I think
it's nothing fancy, nothing sexy like a lot of the other stocks I talk about, but it goes up
regularly and consistently shows relative strength versus the market and is now 20% higher from our entry.
So what am I going to complain about?
Working well.
CRISPR, man, that $50 million insider buy from the CEO triggered this thing and sent in an enormous move on Monday, 18% higher.
I did expect this thing to come back a little bit yesterday with the momentum names, and it just didn't.
And then today, same thing.
It was down off the open and then recovered to green again.
So there is a really, really strong bid underneath CRISPR still, and I remain long on that one.
I still have shares from our cost base in the 40s, but most of the position has been whittled down now to the October calls that I'm in, which are $50 calls.
I got them at $5.15. They're trading at $18 now. So I have 250% on those CRISPR calls. They expire in October. So
I have plenty of flexibility here. I will remain long on those. I do not expect the stock to come
back to 50. And if it did come back into the 21 EMA, I'd probably add to those calls. But yeah, I think Chris were acting very well.
And frankly, unusual relative strength today and yesterday with a lot of other momentum names fading.
ASDS had a pretty beautiful rebound as well off the lows intraday today.
I remain long that one.
Cost base is too favorable there for me at 28.83.
So, you know, that's a double on shares for us now and continuing to
ride it to the upside huntington ingles another one of my not as sexy names but continues to act
really well in this market and i think we'll see that those all-time highs either this year early
next year up at 300 well 290 really but stock's trading 250s now we got long around 214 so it's giving a nice buffer
mostly shares on that position for me um but nice and slow and easy winner um
embraer is like the only position of mine that i have not been um at or at least on my radar for
dip ads and the reason for that is I think the Brazil situation could get worse.
Embraer breaking below the 100 day-to-day and pushing into the 21-week EMA.
You would like it to find support here.
You do not want to see a weekly close below the 21-week EMA.
I mean, people think it's bad when a stock's below the 21 day EMA, when stocks are
below the 21 week EMA that selling can be very, very, very brutal. So you do not want to see a
weekly close on Embraer below that spot today, but if it can hold it, it may start to develop
a nice bottoming opportunity here around the hundred day for those riskier traders out there who are willing to to take that shot. But yeah,
Embraer is the only one that on my list of names in my portfolio that I'm sort of just
hands off on until the Brazil situation resolves in a better way. But yeah, I'm pretty happy with
my portfolio still, you know, a couple of momentum names sold off a little bit in the last two days.
It's not surprising to me.
A lot of names in my portfolio have doubled or more in the past month, month and a half.
So, you know, it kind of reminds me of that cat meme where people have seen that meme
where it's like the line going vertical and then it dips down a little bit and the cat's
like, why is it going down?
But anyway, it's funny meme, but it gets shared a lot on Twitter. It reminds me dips down a little bit and the cat's like why is it going down uh but anyway it's funny me but it's shared a lot on twitter it reminds me of that a little bit
during this about stock talk he loves animal videos i love sometimes means he loves animal
videos yeah i have a very soft spot for animals like lions dogs i was gonna set the lights i see
the lights i post yeah i love lions like i don't know what it is i just love lions maybe that's
why i have a yellow lab because it's like the closest
thing I can get to one without
getting an actual lion but
you're a Game of Thrones guy?
I love Game of Thrones too yeah I mean I hate it at the end of the day
so you're a Lannister fan?
is that why you're buying that ranch that you're looking at?
so you can get some mount lions?
to get a horse and a lion?
yeah
no I don't want to get an actual lion, but I do love lions as animals.
I don't know why that came up, but yes, that is true, Evan.
I do love lions.
But yeah, look, you know, I sort of say this all the time, too.
This is another one of my favorite little tidbits, but like if you can't handle the heat, get out of the kitchen.
A lot of people like to be in high beta, mid-cap names on the way up because it's easier to outperform the market that way.
I mean, I like doing that, too. But too many of the new traders and investors that get into these names like have no idea about what sort of volatility to expect.
And, you know, that you have to know that high beta stocks are are always and will always be a double edged sword.
that high beta stocks are always and will always be a double-edged sword, right?
You have the investor bases and shareholder bases of these stocks are not akin to the shareholder bases in, let's say, your MAG7 names.
And I actually think the composition of a stock shareholder base is something that people do not give enough attention to.
And I think that goes for experienced and amateur investors alike. There tends to be this tendency
to think that like stocks are stocks and price is price. And look, I'm somebody that defers to
price. I never want to knock the idea that price is king. It is king. Price is king. And you should
always listen to what price is telling you over what any individual is telling you. But context does matter too.
And I always say that as well.
And when you look at price volatility on like large cap centerpiece blue chip names, the volatility is generally pretty controlled.
And by controlled, I mean it's highly liquid.
They tend to respect the levels well, they tend to respect not only historical price, but even lagging indicators,
they tend to respect well, which makes them good trading vehicles, if you will, for traders,
right? And it also makes them good investing vehicles for investors, because you will, for for for traders. Right. And it also makes them good investing vehicles
for investors because you can you don't have to sit through minus 10, minus 12 percent days.
But the shareholder basis of those companies are very different. Right. You have a huge amount of
passive investment in those companies that comes from the indexes, the major indexes, right,
spy and queues. And you also have a huge amount of institutional interest in those companies, generally speaking, not all of them, but generally speaking, you have
60 plus percent institutional interest on those stocks as well. And so that helps float the price.
That helps reduce the volatility, reduce the relative beta to the market, reduce the pain
of holding those stocks. All of those things help. Passive index exposure,
institutional exposure. But when you graduate down a notch to the mid cap stocks, which is
where I like to play sub 10 billion market cap, preferably between two to 10 billion market cap.
In my view, you still have the liquidity, right? Like most of us in the crowd are not trading with
billion dollar accounts. I would hope so. But I mean, maybe there are some of you that have a billion dollars, but I don't.
And so, you know, if you don't have a billion dollars to move, you have enough liquidity
in those names to get a large position, get options if you want, whatever you want to
do, whatever your style is, you can do it and you have enough liquidity on mid-cap names.
Generally speaking, there are some mid-cap names that are like four or five billion market caps that trade 30K shares a day. Obviously,
that doesn't qualify. But most two plus billion market caps have enough volume for you to build
a position with millions of dollars if you want to. Now, that's one reason why I like to operate
there. But also because when things are going good
for those companies there's more room for speculation right like if you're a hundred
billion dollar company and you want your stock to go up from a piece of news or a partnership or PR
it has to be damn good like there has to be some kind of earnings weight you can't you can't be a
hundred billion dollar company and say oh we're using're using Nvidia GPUs and your stock's going to go up 5%. Right. But you, if you're a $1 billion company and you phrase the PR, right, you've seen what can happen when people drop PRs like that. Right. Stocks can go up 20, 30, 40%. Why is that? Well, it's because there's more, well, A, it's because of the shareholder base thing, which I just covered. The shareholder bases in these larger companies are not as naive,
not as like, you know, quick to the gun. They're going to analyze catalysts for what they actually
are and not read the headline of the PR and bid up the stock. So the shareholder base matters,
but also because when you have a two or three billion market cap, there is room for speculation. You can bake,
you can easily actually bake in a billion dollars worth of speculation into a stock like that
without anything changing about the company. It happens all the time, right? It happens literally
all the time. It's happened 150 times this year. It happened with 200 stocks last year. There's
always a hundred plus stock, mid cap stocks a year that go up on no fundamental change and purely on either narrative change or multiple expansion as a result of good news.
So the bottom line of that point is that multiple expansion requires less proof with mid-cap stocks than it does with large-cap stocks.
That is just objectively true. It's notcap stocks. That is just objectively true.
It's not my opinion.
That's just objectively true.
And if somebody wants to go and do a meta-analysis
with 300 large-cap stocks, 300 mid-cap stocks,
and 300 PRs for each,
go and do that meta-analysis if you don't believe me.
It'll be overwhelmingly in favor of the mid-cap stocks.
And that's just the way markets are.
There's more
room for speculation and there's a thinner, less dedicated shareholder based on those stocks. So
that's why I like them because they move better. Now, that being said, when markets get extended
or the indexes get exhausted, those names also get hit the hardest. Why? Because that billion
or billion and a half or $2 billion worth of valuation that's entirely speculative is subject
to market discretion, right? When the market attitude is exhausted or corrective, those
companies are not going to be awarded the same level of speculation that they would be
in a bull market. And that's why these stocks, when the music stops, fall 10, 20, 30, 40%
rapidly. And you have to know if you are somebody that does play in that playground with me,
or with people like Logical, or Kirk likes to trade mid-cap stocks.
If you like to play in that playground, you have to know what the other side of what the other edge of the knife looks like and how sharp it is. Because if you're not cognizant of that, you're going to watch these things break down in front of you and say, it's OK, they'll come back and watch them really break down.
and watch them really break down.
This is why I personally put so much emphasis
on the idea of pullbacks versus technical breakdowns
because there's about 10 plus stocks in my portfolio,
maybe 12 plus stocks in my portfolio
that I would immediately, without hesitation,
cut if they fell below their 21 EMAs.
That's it.
Nothing else about like,
I don't care about anything else
with the story. The story could still be great. I could still think the stock is going higher,
but there's about 10 or 12 positions in my portfolio. I call these like my peripheral
risk positions where it's money that I have on the table that I don't need to have on the table.
Right. It's money that I, it's money that I have in the market that I'm like, hey, these are positions that I want to own if market conditions remain favorable, but they are also positions that
I will have no hesitation to cut if market conditions turn. And if you're somebody like me
who both invests and trades and manages a portfolio of both investments and trades, you have to think like that.
Because otherwise, when the market correction comes, if you're just holding a basket of 15 names,
nine of them are low conviction names, you are not going to know how to manage those positions
effectively during a correction. Your most likely course of action is either going to be panic selling at the lows or panic buying or panic dip buying at the wrong time. That's what most people
do with low conviction positions because they don't understand the stock. They don't understand
the technical structure. They don't understand, right? That's the definition of a low conviction
position. You bought it just because you didn't do any of your own work on it. When you're in
those positions during market corrections, that's where people blow up their
portfolios because they don't know what to do with their positions.
And I refer to this several times.
But again, for me this year, you look at my performance chart.
The reason I was able to survive the April drawdown in the markets without my portfolio
tanking 20, 30 percent was because I did precisely that.
If I did not cut those positions in late February, my drawdown would have been enormous. I would not
have been up as much as I'm up this year, not even close. But without hesitation, after the
DeepSeek day, I slashed 10 positions that day. Did I sell some of them at the lows?
Yeah, but that doesn't matter to me.
That doesn't matter to me.
It's a function of risk management because there's always going to be moments where you
sell something when it breaches a point of risk.
And this is for new traders.
This is an important emphasis.
There's always going to be a moment where let's say you have your stop set at the 21
EMA for a trading position.
Stock falls below it.
You sell it. There's always going to be instances where the 21 EMA for a trading position. Stock falls below it. You sell it.
There's always going to be instances where the next day it rebounds back above.
Most traders will look at that and say, I made a mistake. I disagree with that.
I don't think that's a mistake. And this happens to me all the time. Dude, like a couple of weeks ago, I took profits on TLM.
That stock ended up going up 30% this week, okay?
Or last week or whenever it was.
Like the week after I sold it.
Did that piss me off?
It was a little annoying.
But does that like ruin my mentality of trading?
No, because I sell stocks all the time that proceed to go higher.
Or I sell or I buy stocks that proceed to go lower too.
Like that's part of the
game you know but you just have to have that line in the sand and it's different for every person
where you say hey this is my max risk I'm not willing to take any more risk than this even if
the stock rebounds even if I'm selling at the lowest because otherwise if you don't do that, you risk bags becoming really big bags that become hard to cut.
You know, I can't think of how many traders, new traders over the years that have come through our community or I've seen on Twitter who have a position that they have a significant part of their net worth in.
You know, I won't name the person, but one person I knew had this $130,000 positions.
One of our members, it was like a tenth of his portfolio.
He's like a million dollar plus portfolio.
Tenth of his portfolio in this position.
And he went down like five or six percent on it.
And, you know, I remember he sent me a message and said like, hey, based on what you teach
us at workshops, the stock is breaking down.
But like, I really like it and I want to hold it.
And I told him like, hey, look, if you have conviction, you know, you can
do what you want to do, but be mindful. The chart doesn't look good. It's going to go down, right?
The stock was here to go down a lot more, went down like 30% over the next month. And yeah,
he was, that went from being down, I don't know, four or 5,000 on a hundred plus thousand dollar
position to being down like 30 or 40,000.
And he said, well, I don't want to cut it anymore because, you know, the loss is too big and like eventually a rebound and they had a good earnings
and then they proceeded to have a bad earnings and the stock went down another
20%. Okay. And now he was holding like a $70,000 loss on a hundred thousand
dollar position. So like people don't understand how quickly that can happen.
You know, this is another like erroneous way of thinking for new traders, investors,
people don't understand how quickly stocks can staircase down. Two bad events in a row,
stock breaks down technically, shorts pile in, another bad catalyst. Before you know it,
the stock's going to cut it out. And, you know, if you're giga long, that's a situation where conviction, quote unquote, which is something I pound the table all the time, can backfire on you.
Right. So conviction is a great thing.
And it's a product of the work you put it on the stocks.
But it is like everything else in markets, a double edged sword.
And if you are convicted on the wrong thing, which you sometimes will be, it's happened
to me before, it's happened to many other people before, a position that's really big
for you that starts breaking down and all the signs are telling you no and your confirmation
bias is fighting against it and it goes lower and lower and lower.
It's happened to me before.
It's happened to every good trader and investor before too.
It's probably happened to everyone in the audience before.
That is something you have to learn from over time.
And it's also something where you have to be willing at a certain juncture to say, you know what?
I was wrong.
The price is telling me that I was wrong.
And maybe I can revisit the stock in six months or a year when things change.
But sometimes price will just
humble you and will say, hey, man, I know you kept loading this thing up and you really thought it
was going to go higher, but it's just not ready. Either the fundamentals are not ready or there's
some negative catalyst on the table or market sentiment isn't ready or the hype isn't sufficient
in the industry or one of their peers got killed on earnings. I mean, I go on and on a million reasons, right? So you're going to be
proven wrong by the market sometimes. And the people who accept that and take the loss and
step out of the way versus the people who stubbornly stand with their feet in the sand while the market tide turns against them,
those two portfolios, those two people are going to look a lot different.
One of them is going to have a portfolio that doesn't blow up during corrections,
and the other one is going to have one that does.
So, you know, we talk a lot about these corrections coming.
A lot of people are worried now about a market correction coming.
Maybe we are around the corner from one.
And if we are around the corner from one, and you're one of those person that owns a lot about these corrections coming. A lot of people are worried now about a market correction coming. Maybe we are around the corner from one. And if we are around the corner from one and you're one of those person that owns a bunch of these stocks that can go down 10% in a day and you're looking around, be ready to manage risk quickly if you don't know how to do it in advance.
fluidly manage risk in your portfolio, which is, I think, frankly, okay, be ready to pull the
trigger on risk management when the market tells you you need to, because it can happen so fast.
In one week of action, the market can look very ugly. Looks fine right now, as far as I'm concerned,
but in one week, it can look very ugly and things can change very quickly. So you have to keep that
in the back of your mind. If you don't, you're going to end up with big bags.
And so know what you own, know what you're willing to buy at lower levels.
And if when a stock starts dropping, this is a good little anecdote.
If when a stock starts dropping and you're looking at it dropping,
and instead of thinking, oh, I'm excited for this thing to come back into the 50-day so I can buy, or, oh, I'm excited for this thing to come back into the 50 day so I can buy or, oh, I'm excited for this thing to come back in the 200 day and I can buy.
If instead of thinking that, you're thinking, oh, shit, I should have taken profits.
I might have been wrong. Right.
If that's what you're thinking when a stock comes down, that is not a high conviction stock.
OK, people think they're in high conviction stocks.
They think like, oh, I love this stock. Okay. People think they're in high conviction stocks. They think like, oh, I love
this stock. If only I owned more, right? They always feel that way when the stock's going up.
Not many people feel that way when the stock is going down. And the real test for conviction is
that, is when the stock is coming back down on you and the price is not in your favor,
do you still like it? Do you really really still like it and a lot of you will
struggle with that question because you'll say you know what well i liked it but it was going
up and now it looks like it's topping and you know maybe it's time for me to get out that's
great if you're a trader but that's not a high conviction position if it's a if it's really a
high conviction position you know you when it's coming down you should feel excited not worried
if you feel worried that's a good sign to probably sell.
You know, the stock starts coming back down on you and you're worried you might give the whole thing back.
Sell it. You don't want to own that thing.
You don't really actually want to own that thing. You're just pretending like you do.
So that that's the hardest thing in markets is learning that distinction between what you actually want to own and what is just a trade.
That's like, in my opinion, the single hardest experiential skill to develop.
It's going to take most of you years to develop it because you're going to think you like stuff
and then you're going to slowly over time realize what your actual conditions or attributes that
you look for a stock are. And they'll get better and better over time. But initially, you're not
going to be good at it. I wasn't good at it. No one's good at it initially.
So, yeah, be cognizant of that.
Be cognizant of the risks in the market.
Earnings honestly look fine here to kick off the season, but we have plenty to go.
The macro data looks fine, but we have plenty to go.
You know, the Fed situation is relatively unpredictable.
Some people think the cuts coming in July,
I think probably not. But we're going to get between one to three cuts this year,
depending on if they want to go with 50 at the end of the year. Depending on the bank you look
at, that's the general consensus. So rate cuts of some kind are coming. You know, will they
follow through fluidly into next year and just 25 at a time that would be an ideal scenario but
inflation data could provide a hiccup to that indonesia deal got signed today 19 percent tariffs
that's not bad if we can get sub 20 percent tariffs in most most countries i think that'll
be a softer base case than was expected um obviously the august 1st deadline is coming
up next week where it's supposed to be a strict
deadline but according to besan's commentary i'm not sure if that's true apparently china's
deadline for renewal is up at august 15th not august 1st so the china deal will have to wait
another couple of weeks but we'll see apparently we're supposed to get you know 20 new trade deal
announcements in the next four or five days, according to what the administration has said.
It's funny. Mystic posted this the other day today, but he searched trade deals in Walter Bloomberg's tweets.
And it was just like every day for the last two months, they've been saying trade deals coming in the next few days.
We haven't gotten very many. So maybe we'll get some trade deals prior to August 1st.
But I think the market's looking towards that August 1st deadline.
I think the market's also looking towards that August 15th deadline for China.
So, yeah, that's, I think, where your eyes should be at next.
And that's not very far away.
I do think, I personally believe, there's a lot of other narratives out there on the table, but I said this yesterday.
I personally believe the biggest risk to the markets is that on August 1st, we get worse numbers than we thought.
And that remains something that I can't predict because of how this thing has unfolded.
And I don't think anyone can predict that.
But if on August 1st, we do get worse numbers than we thought, I do think the market will go down a lot.
And that's about the only major imminent risk i see on the table
outside of that everything looks pretty great view to me
bitcoin looks pretty crazy are we back are we back above 120 now
okay almost 119.7 i was pulling it up as you said you mentioned Warby Parker again I was
just curious um that's connected with the meta glasses or just in general
Google Google I'm sorry at Google yeah so they're make theirs they got an
initial contract not the full contract you have a couple hundred million bucks
to start Google's AI glasses program if their prototypes are successful Google
said they'll up the amount that they're invested
and make them more of a real partner.
But I mean, I love like,
I don't generally buy these types of businesses.
You guys know I'm more of like a tech and like,
you know, I like, I like quote unquote sexy stocks.
That's like where I like to go, where I like to skate, because I think it's easier for
them to get volume and attention and easier to get catalyst reception.
So just makes my life easier when the stock is in a sexy industry.
So that's generally where I like to focus.
But occasionally I do pick up names like Warby that I think are just interesting without
being quote unquote sexy businesses.
And I think the catalyst is sexy though.
Like I think the idea that, you know,
they're kind of a light asset, light eyeglasses,
business with limited selection, really efficient pricing and services.
Like I liked them a lot. I use them for my glasses and contacts.
So I liked the business in and of itself but I think this is an opportunity for a step
change for them like if they're successful in building out the Google
glasses like their three billion dollar market cap like there it's a nothing
burger like you know they could they increase their TAM just with those AI glasses by 15% like overnight, you know, and let alone the durable expansion of that on a two or three year basis.
You could be talking about 20% market expansion for them.
And keep in mind, you look at Essilur Luxottica, you look at all their vendors like Sunglass Hut and all these vendors and stuff.
They generally group them.
They own a bunch of them. I forgot all the names of, of the S little Loxotica, um, retailers,
but they own a bunch of these ones you see in the malls and stuff. And you look at the,
their group sales year over year, Warby is growing faster than the S or Loxotica group in, uh, I can
never pronounce that in, that, in North America.
So Warby's growing market share faster in North America than the biggest eyeglass retailer in the world.
It's pretty good.
And now they have the AI Glasses Partnership.
So, yeah, I like it.
I like the stock.
And it's working for me. It's one of those no-stress positions where I don't have to worry about crazy volatility in it.
It's just grinding to the upside, not curling up above the range highs,
the consolidation highs today.
So, yeah, I think it goes higher.
I think you see $30 maybe this year.
Was there a time frame on the release for this?
I know Meta was working on getting, because they had like what,
they had the Ray-Bans, but they were coming out with like Oakley
and some other luxury name.
Yeah, they are.
So Oakley's also owned by Isolura Luxottica.
So they're the parent brand of Ray-Ban, Oakley,
all the major glasses brands that you can think of.
And so, yeah,
that partnership is just an expansion
to another brand of theirs, to Oakley.
Yeah.
They own a lot of companies, by the way.
I think they also own a lot of the people who are not just the people making glasses.
Yeah, the retailers, like I mentioned.
Yeah.
Like in the mall, like Sunglass Hut.
I forgot the
other one i bet you they also own a lot of these doctors too or something like that eye doctors
yeah they do they own a lot of big fucking eye is after you guys just so you know and that's
excelsior latica i didn't even try i have no idea how to say it but um i mean it's been a long time
since there's so you're you are a fan of the
takedown of big eye is what you're basically saying here i'm the fan like we were talking
about mid-cap focus earlier right like i'm a fan of mid-cap companies that purport to take market
share from larger cap companies that's where the big bucks are made in markets like those if i if
somebody had to say describe to me if you're only about one type of stock,
that would be the type of stock I buy
for the rest of my life,
is two to 10 billion market caps
that have a genuine shot at capturing market share
from an incumbent large cap or mega cap.
Because-
I hope you realize, given it five to 10 years,
two to 10 billion is gonna be a small cap.
We're not gonna be in the mid cap any range. I mean, that's just to 10 years, two to 10 billion is going to be a small cap. We're not going to be in the mid cap any range anymore.
I mean, that's just the dictionary definition.
But yeah, I mean, I'm just going by the terms.
Mid cap, two to 10 billion.
Small cap, sub two billion.
Large cap, above 10 billion.
That's like the definition.
So I don't know.
I mean, you can call them whatever you want to.
But you get the point I'm making.
Like these companies, I was mentioning earlier, you you know you're a two billion dollar company you drop a sexy pr your market cap can expand by a billion dollars without much noise
you know the same thing goes for you know you look at companies that have these multi forget
about the multi-trillion dollar companies, forget about the Mag7.
You look at like the 200, 300 billion dollar plus companies on the publicly traded markets.
You know, you look at the market shares they have. If you have the two or three or four or five, six, seven billion dollar company that has a unique product that's in the same industry as one of these other companies and is gaining any kind of significant
market share. I'm talking about the tune of percents. It doesn't need to be deck up. It
doesn't need to be 10, 20%. You could pick up 2, 3% market share for a company like that. And it is
dramatically meaningful for the business, right? Because you're picking up 2, 3, four, five percent of a mega cap company's market share is enormous for those smaller companies.
And in some instances, you see even more market share pickup than that.
And that's when you have real expansion in the market caps.
Right. Like, look at what Robinhood has done.
Right. Robinhood went from being a mid cap at the lows to, you know, being a large cap now, massive large cap.
So like, you know, all a lot of these companies have done that where they've come into these new spaces and not only penetrated the space effectively, but captured more market share than they were expected to.
And then they end up getting these huge premiums.
Right.
I mean, MBIS, same thing,
right? Like MBIS started the year at the lows was, you know, a six, whatever billion market cap.
It's now 12 plus billion market cap. It's now a large cap, right? Intra year. It didn't even take
like, it didn't take multiple years for that to happen. It went from a mid cap to large cap
intra year. Why did that happen? Well, AI ai private valuations expanded rapidly nebius has a stake
and click house and taloka and av ride so the market had to expand the valuation like these
things happen so quickly right it's like a blink of an eye and the market's like oh stock has to
be repriced and so that's kind of why i like to operate in, in, in those stocks.
And I mean, obviously, again, there's instances where some are not liquid enough. Right.
But like that's rare for the one names that I'm looking at.
Like if I'm looking at my portfolio right now, right.
Like out of 20 positions,
of 20, 20 positions,
17 are below a 20 billion market cap.
like,
and out of those 17 that are below a 20 billion market cap,
12 are below a 10.
So, like,
I see what's happening.
How many are below five
keep the game going one two three four
eight but one of them's a spac so seven technically
so i mean yeah i don't know i've always just focused in that area like i have mega cap stocks
i own tesla i own amazon like i own robin hood like i have these bigger market caps right i mean
even some of the short squeeze stocks that i was in earlier like asts when i was in at 28 it's 57
now i mean that's like a 20 billion mark cap when i got in it was like a 10 billion mark cap so
some of these things change quickly right joe be same thing when i got in it was a 6 billion mark
cap now it's a 14 billion mark cap and that was like a month ago so like some of this stuff does
change sometimes too rapidly for my taste even but if you know what you're doing there's enormous
money to be made there right like this year I've been in nine stocks that have doubled nine
like, and all of them have been mid caps. So I mean, I don't know. I mean, I guess unless you
count Robinhood, which is an existing position, but I mean, if you want to count that too,
then count that, but outside of Robinhood, like they've all been mid caps. And, you know, am I looking for stocks that can double
in a month? No. You know, some of that is luck, but it's, I'm looking for very specific opportunities,
which for those of you that listen to the show all the time, I go over this all the time, right?
Like these specific things that I look for, I want hot theme, quality catalyst, strong chart,
Hot theme, quality catalyst, strong chart, preferably pinched between a major area of resistance with a good catalyst.
That's what I'm looking for.
And, you know, you throw some other attributes in there that I look for, like short interest, like unusual options flow.
And you add those as additional conviction points.
That's it.
It's not like a complicated 20-step process.
It's just simple. I just like,
I'm like, Hey, is this stock in a hot theme? Is that catalyst good? Like really good? Is the chart promising? Is it relatively strong versus the market? Is there plenty of support below?
Is there a major resistance level right above that? We have a high probability of busting through
those are the things I like to look for. Just simple, quick, pop, pop, pop, pop, pop. Okay, let's try it. If it works, it
works. It doesn't work. It doesn't work. That's all I do. I wish it was more complicated than
that. There's some people that ask me, what magic are you doing to pick all these stocks?
It's like, there's nothing. That's it. That's it's a it's a lens that develops over time you're not going to
just like know how to discern a quality catalyst once you start looking at catalyst for the first
time you know most people can't tell the difference most people just read the headline right like
let's be honest we're in a headline driven environment just reads the headline you know
you see rich tech robotics or whatever oh we're doing an nvidia
partnership and then you go read the pr and they're like buying nvidia gpus right and then
the stock goes up 30 and then comes back down it's like that kind of stuff is you get a better
eye for it over time like when i'm going over my news feed in the morning i mean evan knows this
evan tweets a ton of news every day i don't really tweet much unless I think it's significant. But when I go through my newsfeed every morning, there's like hundreds of analyst changes.
Hundreds.
Price target changes, upgrades, downgrades, initiations, price targets lowered, sector reports with like 12 stocks covered.
If you look at that and you're a new
trader or investor you're like what the fuck like where do i even start right but like i've been
doing this i've been doing that for this for so long that like i just scroll through the feed and
things just jump off the page to me right you're not going to get there like overnight that takes years of experience and like an actual
diligence to want to determine to this category of information right catalysts are just a data
set like any other in the markets they're a data set just like your chart just like your balance
sheet just not enough people treat them that way that's why i'm like such a pound the table guy here every day about catalyst trading,
because I don't think enough people treat like the daily set of catalysts in the morning as a
data set. And for people that don't understand when I say catalysts over and over again, like,
what do I mean by that? It's pretty simple. A catalyst is anything that is a reason for the
stock to go up. It can be a news report.
It can be a PR.
It can be a partnership announcement.
It can be an earnings report.
It can be something happening for the sector.
Like earlier, we were talking about these power producing names like Talon, Constellation, Energy, Vistra.
Those names are all surging after hours.
Why? Not because anything happened with any
of them individually, but because we found out that this power grid, the largest US power grid
provider is charging all time high prices. And so now all those stocks are getting bid, right?
That's an industry wide catalyst. Those stocks, I don't even have to go look at them. I know they're
going to be relatively strong versus the market tomorrow. And just knowing and just knowing something like that, like just being able to recognize that
off quickly, you're going to go tomorrow and be like, oh, there might be a dip buy opportunity
on one of them intraday or in pre-market.
Like you can learn, once you learn how to discern these things, you can capitalize on
them very quickly because you should have a list of five to six actionable stocks that
you can flip to immediately when something comes up about power producers or something comes up about nuclear or something comes up by like any of these sectors.
It's part of why I use this watch list feature so much.
In the mornings when I do my streams, I share my master watch list that has like a thousand stocks on it.
It's not separated by health care and
industrials and the traditional sectors it's separated by industries so like i have a rare
metals watch list whenever any news comes about rare metals i flip to the rare metals watch list
a lot of times i'll just buy the laggard instantly on the list that i'm familiar with and just wait
and like you know literally 10 20 minutes later, those stocks all
get bid up and get huge candles. Like it's that kind of instinct and recognition that comes with
time. But if you do the work and look every morning at the news that comes out and the
analyst reports that come out, and you can even start by just taking notes. Like when I started to try to like analyze catalysts,
all I did was like, I would mark five or six catalysts on a day. They might be PRs or
partnerships or earnings or, or, or, uh, analyst reports. I'd mark five or six and then I'd see
how the stocks did. Right. So I'd create a watch list. And if, for those of you that want to learn
how to do what I do, pay attention, cause this is exactly how I taught myself how to do what I do.
But I would make a watch list of five or six stocks for the day. Right.
Whatever came out in the morning based on what I read in the morning.
Then I would watch their performance intraday.
OK. And I would take notes of the ones that did well and the ones that did poorly.
And over the course of, for me, it took me many years to get to where I am in terms of
catalyst trading. But over the course of many years of watching hundreds of stocks go up,
down or sideways on catalysts, I taught myself what to look for. I taught myself what keywords
to look for in the report, right?
Like I've brought up tidbits about this before, but like one of the things I love to look for
in an analyst report is we met with the CEO and CFO. When a note gets opened like that,
I almost always read it because to me, that's like, Hey, you might have information
that the market doesn't know. Right. And so I have found that those types
of reports tend to produce big moves. And so that's an attribute that I like to look for.
Right. There are many other attributes of that kind that I like to look for. I like to look for
the phrase asymmetric upside. The mention of that in an analyst report tends to entice the algos. That
tends to be something that moves stocks. I mean, I could go over a list of 100 things that I look
for, but those are just some examples. Over time, if you truly do care about process and doing it
the way I explained, and testing and checking and seeing market reactions. That's the only way you figure
out how the market acts. There's no book you can go read on how the market acts 101. You figure it
out through experience and observation over the data set of hundreds or even thousands of stocks,
depending on how long you've been trading or investing. And eventually you recognize patterns
and you recognize attributes about
catalysts that do move stocks and attributes about catalysts that fail to move stocks as well.
Right. So then you can be dismissive of those reports. Like I talk all the time about like how
I don't read H.C. Wainwright reports. Why do I not read them? Because they have a very poor track
record of producing moves in the market based on their
reports. So I don't even read them. Like, I don't even look at them. They could be talking about
one of my stocks. I don't even look at it. Their research is generally pumpy garbage is what I've
found over the years. So I don't even look at H.C. Wainwright at all. And I'm sorry if there's
somebody from H.C. Wainwright in the crowd. I'm not, you know, I'm sure you're a great person,
but I just don't like their research.
And it does poorly.
Like, they don't, they don't,
they issue so many reports
that their opinion is completely diluted.
Some days they'll issue 25 reports.
Obviously, that's not going to move anything
because it's not significant, right?
Versus firms like KeyBank or Bayard or Bank of America
who issue one report every few weeks or every few months.
That's meaningful, right?
Because you're not just diluting your opinion with opinions on a million stocks.
So that's another thing I look for, like frequency of commentary.
If it's coming from an analyst or shop that comments on something every week, I'm not going to take it as seriously.
If it's coming from an analyst or a shop that comments on something every four months I'm not going to take it as seriously. If it's coming from an analyst or a shop that comments on something every four months,
I'm going to read it.
And so, yeah, anyway, I could go on and on and on all day about this.
But I think it is worth reading.
And I think it's worth, like, not just analyst research.
Catalyst in general, news in general, is worth tracking every morning
because you will learn what matters and what doesn't.
That's the only way you figure it out.
No one's going to be able to tell you that.
I was going to ask if you were mad at the analysts.
I haven't seen you post any analyst reports really much lately.
There hasn't been any good ones the last couple of weeks.
Like nothing good.
I read them and I'm just like, it's been a bunch of garbage.
And maybe that is a sign of a frothy market, honestly.
Speaking of all the anecdotes we were. And maybe that is a sign of a frothy market, honestly. Speaking of all the anecdotes
we were using, maybe that is a sign.
Because the reports have been garbage lately.
They've just been like, yeah,
we're increasing our multiple again
for the fifth time in a row. I don't like
to see that.
You know?
So, yeah, I just haven't liked
the reports. I mean, I've covered
some. I covered a couple this morning in our community.
I didn't think anything was particularly notable.
There was an upgrade on Magnite.
There was an initiation on Lunar by Craig Hallam talking about the space race with China and the U.S.
Like, it's these type of silly story tale notes that come out now, like at this point in the cycle.
So, I think stocks just have to
cool off a little bit. And I also think we're pre-earning season. So most of the commentary
you're going to see right now is going to be around mega cap tech until those guys are out
of the way. You know, a lot of Google upgrades this morning. People are loving Google here,
going into the print. So yeah, I would say Google and Amazon have stood out in terms of the mega cap names.
They've got they got a lot of price target raises this morning and yesterday.
But outside of those guys, it's just been kind of a boring sell side environment.
And that happens. It's like, you know, there's probably.
the the two weeks to kick off a quarter and every quarter of the year so that's like eight weeks
plus the two weeks to close out a quarter so 16 weeks total i would say during the year you get
really good analyst commentary like really good in-depth your earnings recaps model adjustments
things that can really teach you about companies.
If you, if you care about that, which I think every trader investor should,
if you plan to be in this game for decades,
there's no point in just ignoring one half of the equation,
which is what most of Twitter does.
Most of Twitter is either I'm all technical or I'm all fundamental.
And they just ignore the other side, which I just cannot understand that.
It blows my mind actually that people are encamped on that Like, it's like a political party thing on Twitter. Like, if you plan to be
in the market for decades and want to do well and make money, you better know both. That's my view.
But anyway, yeah, I think that there's, you know, about 16 weeks where you get the type of commentary that you can make multi-month trades on if you're smart
and discerning it and i mean i can't count the number of winners this year swing trade winners
multi-month winners that i the the inception of the idea came from a quality report. So many for me. Last year, too. It's why I literally, I hysterically laugh
when people mock Wall Street research on Twitter.
Like, I laugh.
Because I'm like, you guys aren't even reading it.
Like, if you weren't reading it,
then, I mean, like, am I reading something else?
Because, like, I'm making ridiculous money
reading these reports.
So is everyone else just like reading something else
i'm very confused by that when i see that and i think it's because people not only are not reading
nobody likes to read everybody likes shit to be super convenient although these days i don't see
an excuse for it you could throw an entire research report into an llm and get a summary
that you can read in five seconds so i don't really see an excuse for it. But anyway, not only do people not like to read,
but people get super obsessed with their own stocks. And so there's this tendency to
view Wall Street research through the lens of your own stocks right like when oscar was getting
downgraded at whatever the highs were uh and like i posted one of the reports i remember and people
were like commenting like this guy fucking doesn't know what he's talking about wall street's always
stupid right and like the stock proceeded to go down like 40 from there but it's this idea of
like confirmation bias people want wall street to upgrade the stocks they're in and downgrade the
stocks they're not in.
And that's just the way people are.
It's human nature.
And I get it,
but it's also kind of a silly perspective to take because like,
if you actually go and read what they're saying,
like most of them are making decent arguments.
They're not all right.
Obviously that's never what I'm implying.
They're wrong as much as every other market participant is wrong.
I bet you most Wall Street research is about 50-50, just like most other analysts out there.
And that's not the point of it.
The point of it is to be able to leverage the information that is provided in a way where you can gain an edge
on market action. That's it. You know, so that you can be before, like, people realize what is
being disclosed or discussed there. A lot of times, analyst reports are just bringing up,
like, when an analyst initiates a stock out of nowhere or upgrades a stock out of nowhere,
they're not, like, doing, like, financials 101. A lot of times, they're not like doing like financials 101.
A lot of times they're like proposing something that might happen, right?
Especially if there's a ton of upside.
Like if you ever see an analyst covering a stock and they go like,
hey, we're raising our price target from 40 to 60,
which is a big price target raise obviously.
And, you know, we see material change in our fiscal year 27 guidance. And here's why.
Those are good reports. That moves the stock. Right. Why does it move the stock? Because like
the broad shareholder base doesn't can't do that, doesn't do that. Right. Like the broad
shareholder base isn't like sitting down saying, oh, due to this new piece of information that comes out next week, I'm updating my, you know, there might be
some quality retail analysts that are doing that. But broadly speaking, like people aren't doing
that. And so when Wall Street comes out on a stock and says, hey, we just realized there's a 40%,
you know, EPS tailwind here because of this, this and this, and we're factoring it into a model and we're raising our price target by 50%.
That's going to fucking move the stock.
Unless the market's getting clapped that day or something,
those reports move stocks because you're disclosing a potentially different
financial future for the company, potentially,
but you're disclosing a potentially different financial future for the company
than what the market is currently pricing in.
So those kind of reports are almost always worth at least 5% or 6%, you know, to the
upside.
And a lot of times for retail traders, you can buy these things flat, completely flat
in pre-market.
You know, if you're just dealing, if you're dealing sub 5 million in capital, which most
people probably are, most retail traders probably are, if you're dealing sub five million in capital which most people probably are most retail
traders probably are if you're dealing sub five million in capital you can get pre-market fills
in size without moving the stock on a lot of these names before the market even opens and many of them
gap up immediately like mtrn materion which we covered on friday was like basically in the
after hours where the report came out the
Thursday after the stock was completely flat in that morning it was up like a percent and then
at open it instantly went up six percent with the opening volume instantly okay there was millions
of dollars of liquidity available to fill all through after hours on the Thursday night before
and all through pre-market the morning before.
Millions and millions of dollars of liquidity, right?
And the stock gapped up instantly 6%.
I cannot count to you guys,
like for those of you that are in the community,
you know this,
but the stocks we go over on pre-market live streams,
I cannot count to you the amount of times that happens.
Like it just happens all the fucking time.
Like stocks flat in pre-market,
plenty of liquidity,
market volume, open volume comes, stock gaps 5, 6, 7, sometimes 10 plus percent.
Over and over and over again.
Like, that's catalyst trading.
That's recognizing, hey, what happened this morning, whether it's the news report or the PR or the analyst report, is going to move the stock.
And I've said this a million times before. You don't have to read the whole report, a Wall Street analyst report is going to move the stock. And I've said this a million times before,
you don't have to read the whole report, a Wall Street analyst report, you have to read the whole thing and say, I believe what this guy is saying. That's not what you're trying to deduce. What
you're trying to deduce is, is will what this guy is saying, move the stock? That's what matters.
And so once you make all these recognitions, I mean, again,
I could go on this for like literally two hours, we'll wrap it up here. But
once you make these recognitions, you will learn how to do this. And for those of you that want to
go back and listen to the recording of this, always all our spaces are recorded. But I explained
a lot about my process there and about the things I look for. And if you want to integrate it into your process,
just as another data set, which I strongly recommend that people do,
then you have to teach yourself how to do it.
And that takes time.
Evan, bow out on us. us no I hear him
but once we were both kind of committed to the silence
I was going to see how long it was going to go
I was going to wait you out and then I heard it click or whatever
you like took a breath
yeah
I'm hanging out here I appreciate the thoughts there
I'm excited for these earnings tomorrow
really what I'm looking forward to.
Tesla and Google, interesting times.
What's your prediction, Evan?
Do you have any inkling what we're going to get?
I saw Rex was putting out the tweets on what the implied move was.
Tesla, 6% plus or minus.
They were saying Google was 5%.
They were saying Google was 5%.
So, I don't know.
So, I don't know.
I wish someone else, I don't want to just think anecdotes here.
I'd be curious on how we're doing compared to previous moves and stuff like that.
Because there has been some large movers.
I feel like we saw a rise up 5% and a Lockheed Martin down 10 today.
So, maybe there is some movement coming up,
but my base expectation would be those names move less
than what's implied there.
I will say one thing we didn't talk about today.
I know you look at flow sometimes.
Did you notice all the insane out-of-the-money call flow today?
Or was that just me anecdotally noticing that?
What name was it, though?
Like, everything speculative.
Yeah, those are the ones that were flying.
Whatever happened with cold this morning, the market,
there was a lot of these names.
I saw people were talking about Krispy Kreme, Mr. D-Nut.
Yeah, you know, Stock Talk, I saw some of that.
It was unusual, but i was wondering
because those names were frothy and kind of rolling over i was just wondering if that's like
if they're if they somebody just slapped shorts on there and then hedged it with calls
yeah that could be it that could be it that could be it you're absolutely right because it was on like i mean names like oclo asts like you know i saw some crazy out of the money stuff going on today like five six million
dollar lots filling at the ask like i don't know i mean there there is either either this market is
going to do like a blow-off top scenario or we will fizzle into a little bit of a corrective
and consolidation here but i mean you were mentioning this yesterday, Amp, like signs of
exhaustion. I'm 100% with you on that, that there's anecdotal signs of exhaustion. I just don't know
if it's going to resolve in consolidation or a correction. You know, that's what's hard to tell.
Yeah. And, and like, just to expand on that point, like, I'm not saying that we're going to correct
like 5% or anything. We may. That's
not outside of the realm of possibility. But when I look at this and I just see, okay,
things are spreading out in the market. People are de-risking into the earnings a little bit.
The earnings will tell a big story, I think, over the next eight days, honestly. But when I look at it and I see, okay, there's like, you look at how much money was going
in the S&P versus going into NASDAQ. Like it's been kind of a net move across the board sideways,
right? And then, you know, that's one tell. And then you see some of the like super frothy names
starting to fall off, you know, people aren't chasing them as much anymore. And then you look
and we're just extended a little bit. We're like overbought but we're we're just extended you look at it daily
i mean we came down and touched the ma9 today on qqq you know and it felt like it was like okay
we're down we have a one percent down day at the time or whatever and it's it's felt worse than
that but it wasn't it was just a quick move off the open but the s&p didn't even get there we haven't touched the it's been a month since we've touched a 20 day moving average or 21
ema either one they're basically in the same spot they're not that far below us we just
we're just going up at an angle really and we go sideways for a little bit we level up we go
sideways a little bit i mean at the low today we were 1% still away from a 21 EMA, which I know you
talk about that. I know you watch that. And we've touched that one time really since we got going
back in late April. Once. We touched a 21 EMA once. At some point, we'll probably undercut that
a little bit or we'll go sideways until it catches up. One of the two, time consolidation or, or a dip buy.
That's all I'm seeing, you know, and then it just little signs of exhaustion on our
stock pick show last night, several smart people on there.
They were kind of the same way.
They were, they're like, we're, we're not like necessarily bearish, but we are short
term, like, okay, the froth is a little frothy.
You know, it needs to, to we need the like when you first
pour a beer in the cup and you need the the foam to settle down just a little bit it seems like
that's where we're at yeah yeah and you know last thing i'll say before we before we close it out is
i agree that completely the tricky thing in these moments where like you said you have like air to
the nine air to the 21 indexes don't even want to come down into it.
It's hard in these moments to tell whether that's a sign of like strength and that's bullish,
or if it's a sign that the markets need pressure relief. And we're going to see a bigger unwind
where we not only just pop into the nine, maybe pop all the way down to the 21 in a single session
or something like that. It feels like the markets need that sort of pressure release. That's just
me anecdotally speaking, but it's so hard to time it. It's so hard to time it. And, you know,
if we are going to get a strong earnings season and going into August 1st, we get a nothing burger,
which that still remains the overhead risk in the next week.
If going into August 1st, we get a nothing burger, then that would be a pretty tough
scenario to short, I think. Obviously, if August 1st turns out bad, then I would probably throw
some hedges on the table personally. So I think that August 1st tariff deadline is really what
the markets are subconsciously thinking about, and we're not far away from it so uh let's see how price action looks coming out of that deadline
as opposed to going into it i think that'll be an important takeaway so yeah anyway great space
today guys but we'll see you tomorrow same time same place yep same time same place tomorrow one
quick comment okay follow speakers everyone i do want
to say i thought it was weird that we got multiple tariff headlines today from from 20 to 19 or the
where the new deals we got today which i thought was just kind of funny but yeah yeah well time
same place tomorrow will be an earning space as well it'll be even bigger yeah the it was what
the president of the philippines was at the with him. He announced that one. He went ahead and announced Indonesia.
I don't know.
20%.
Until we get China and EU, I don't know that tariffs really matter. That's just my take.
I mean, there may be some individual names, retail type of names, maybe.
When I say retail, I mean retailers that react some of these asian pacific islands but i
don't think so i don't think the market cares about that i think the market's looking at earnings
right now honestly i think the the market's more curious about earnings than the august first date
even like stock talk was saying we've mentioned it on here before it just seems like we continue to
hunt on that but yeah either way uh follow
speakers obviously uh recorded as always you can go back and listen to the whole thing had a great
panel some great thoughts shared earlier today and uh tomorrow tesla google earnings we'll have
it right here live got some uh familiar faces confirmed to come on and talk about it with us
a little bit so we'll see uh we'll see what's said. Catch you guys tomorrow.
Have a great rest of your evening. Thank you.
