Thank you. All right, all right.
Some thumbs up in the chat.
We got one from Mr. Emperor. Ryan, shout out to him as always. I appreciate everyone for coming in
and joining us here on this turnaround Monday, I guess. We'll see. I mean, I don't know if the
whole markets, the individual stock portfolio had a little bit of a turnaround. Obviously,
a crazy weekend in the macro geopolitical world. Looks like the ETF portfolio is also a little
of fears last night coming in not as bad this morning I'm excited to see the chat as always
we got the amazing Scott Redler up here I love these Mondays how you doing Scott I'm doing great
how you doing I'm doing fantastic I'm down in sunny Florida in Miami at the future proof
conference so anyone else is down here I don't know why you guys aren't there right now but
um had some good food a couple slices of pizza we got a good tom lee video and stuff
hopefully ethereum goes up but um but yeah no it's it's i'm doing well i'm doing it well it
was i was checking the portfolio this morning and last night it was a little red i won't lie to you
i haven't spent a lot of today looking at it so it's a nice better than i was expecting we could say here but how are you
doing sir we always love these mondays anything uh catching your eye itching about i see that t3
live account down below shout out to them as well but um yeah scott how are you doing sir yeah
listen you know i i try and make my bed and sleep in it type of thing where you know last week there
definitely was a little bit of technical damage and the spies and the queues closed below the 8 and 21 day on the daily.
On the weekly, it finally closed below it.
So I think for those who trade for a living, who are kind of tactical, trying to make money
quarterly or monthly, nobody got really caught.
You know what I'm saying?
Like the market did not look good where you had a ton of stocks like you needed to be
tier one tier two you know midweek late last week so i do think when you know when the geopolitical
flare-up happened even more and uh etc etc and and oil went above 100 went to 115 my phone was
ringing off the hook um a lot of people were a little worried. And I was like, listen, guys,
you know, we'll deal with it on Monday. You know, there's not much you can do about it unless you're trading futures or whatnot. And a lot of people are actually excited. Like, I hope we're down here,
you know, for Monday morning. I want to cover my shorts. I'm long VIX. I'm long, you know,
I'm long oil. I'm short spies because that's really what the market kind of told you to do
on Thursday, Friday. So lo and behold, today was kind of told you to do on thursday friday so lo and
behold today was kind of muted at least they did open down 70 handles so if you were short you made
a little bit of money if you got out of things last week this morning gave you an opportunity to
tactically day trade you know look at some things that would have made sense so this morning
i kind of put down a list of stocks that i thought could go red to
green for cash flow um besides if thens on the indies you know i'm like well the spies reclaimed
669 they kind of did that it went to 672 just a reflex move um the cues held last week's low of um
of 591 and now you're 599 so that's eight dollars or nine dollars or ten dollars so there was tactical date trading money to be made if you came in relatively light versus thinking
you have to be so involved during a time like this especially if you're trying to be right
day in and day out and then i also had a camp of people saying what do i do my 401k what do i do my
son's 529 i'm like you know what we, well, 4% off the highs. Like,
you're 51. It shouldn't matter. Just keep putting your money in every single month. Your son
is in seventh grade. It doesn't matter. This will help his average cost.
So don't let the media talk you out of your monthly inflows plan, which is very prudent to do
no matter what market. You know, even if it turned into a year or two years, it doesn't matter.
you don't need it. It's part of the long-term plan. And well, that's what's really important,
not to get caught up in the news flow, know what you're looking to do. That's why on the weekends, I talk about my seven multiple accounts, the roadmap that I created from age 20-something to
50-something. It's changed. It's evolved. So this way you could always take advantage.
Like I have a blood in the street account
that's still sitting in a 4% rider,
one of my long-term accounts.
And I was like, hmm, you know, 662-ish is 5% off highs.
I got to stick to my discipline.
If it goes below that and we close in the dead lows
because that's when I could buy the Bright House account,
I'm like, I can finally put my wife's blood
in the street back to work at least tier one
at 5% to 7% off highs. And then I have two more tiers. If we happen to go lower,
like we did last year, where we were down 20%. But here we are only down two. So that's staying
in a fixed rider. And I'm just happy that I was able to make some money trading wise and
navigate it pretty well. I also had a little luck. I had a little luck. Last week, there was
some talk about HIMSS getting
into the peptides business. A friend of mine who's very into it, he's like, I know you hate
the stock. You hate the CEO. Buy the $17 call. I bought the $17 calls on Wednesday for whatever
they were, a dollar. Today, I had a head start on the day. It's nice to get a head start on the day.
I rarely do. It's usually wrong if a head start on the day. I rarely do.
It's usually wrong if someone tells me that something could happen.
But I figured from 70 down to 15 and change, I could take a crack at it just in case it was something good.
And that happened this morning.
I don't know. Maybe this is just Fintwit. Maybe it's literally wars going on and we're seeing it. It feels like there's a lot more fear than there would be in normal environments where the SPY is down this much and what it is. And maybe SPY and the indexes are concealing a little bit of that damage. There are some of those high beta names which have struggled, obviously, crypto.
Maybe this is just fin to it.
Maybe it's literally wars going on and we're seeing it.
though um i know people don't love the fear and greed index uh it has plenty of its problems but
we're just gonna look at it i'm just gonna say it's an extreme fear uh when it we're like we're
less than five percent off of the all-time highs it's a very interesting market here it feels like
people are ready to panic well that's that's the disconnect you know you have a lot of super growth
names that are 40 to 50 off highs a lot of, even mega cap tech that are well off the highs like Tesla's,
you know, looked like it was going to get above 500. And now here you are below 400. So there
is definitely a lot of names that have gone lower while the S&P is not even 4% off the high. So it
creates that disconnect. I don't really love the fear and greed indicator. I have an oscillator
that I use where, you know, when it's minus 40, you want to tend to
be a little less short. When it's minus 70, that means that usually the fear greed, you know,
indicator is, is really pinned and you could get a, like a really nice oversold rally.
But again, there's a disconnect that I know traders around the country are feeling because
I have over 500 people in the, in the virtual trading floor that trade with me, and they're all really talented.
And I also coach other individuals who came from the buy side of the hedge fund world.
And nobody I know is like, wow, I freaking love this market.
And, you know, let's go out for some steaks and some drinks.
We can go out for steaks and drinks, but we could commiserate a little bit
versus, you know, high-fiving.
You know, maybe there are people here
that are doing much better,
and there are some really good shorts out there
that have shorted every rally that, you know,
I know a lot of the guys on here are very talented
picking the mid-cap stocks
and the names that no one really is in,
which hopefully they'll talk about in a little bit.
But ultimately, it has been a very tough environment for a few weeks, a few weeks.
But there's been tradable moves if you're disciplined.
There's been ways to make tactical cash flow.
If you know your levels, you're not in no man's land.
And if you don't do things too early.
Like this morning, what made sense if you think about it what came out with good earnings
last week or reacted well that was avago avgo that opened down three dollars is up 11 that's
day trading 101 what also came out with good numbers last week marvell acted well on friday
you could have bought it verse that gap pivot this morning it was down four or five it's up a dollar
and the video was a little harder to tell except where it was you know down small and i've been
watching the video for a while and i'm like why is the video only down a buck and change
and it went green early so right there those three stocks without over uh complicating it
could have been you know a really nice trade for you know for today and set the table for the week
If you didn't know which, like Amazon and Google, look at Google, Amazon's down four, Google's up four.
Each day they're different.
It's hard to tell which one is going to be the one.
It looked like it was going to go below 385.
Apple went green, but it's kind of broken.
So if you're like, you know what, I don't know which mega cap to go to, but I know the Qs are above last week's lows while the spies are below it.
I'm just going to focus on the Qs.
And if the Qs could get off $591.50 and I have a little bit of a point of reference to trade against,
let me just buy that, put a stop in, and you could have made $8, $9 there without having to worry.
If you picked Amazon and it didn't work and Google worked that day or vice versa, because because one day to the next it's been hard to figure out exactly which one the computer is
going to be programmed for and i know microsoft is one that's hasn't been programmed in yet this
year uh for the upside one yet maybe soon soon. No, Microsoft's been great. It's been an interesting mover.
Microsoft actually. Have I missed it?
Is it done good over the last couple days?
The whole software sector's been bouncing for the last week.
Okay, so it was down 20%.
It wasn't a total left-field comment, but yeah.
It was, listen, software was the punching bag of the market three months ago,
but since it bottomed two weeks ago, every day we were down, it was the first sector to go green.
And you could have made, you know, a little bit of money there.
You know, is it a broken balance?
Like right now, it'll be interesting the rest of the week because, you know, a lot of them went close to their 50-day after, you know, being up for a while.
So now today, like Microsoft's down for it.
Say it's the first day that Microsoft
wasn't one of the first ones to go green. So does that mean this broken bounce is over or service
now? Does that mean the broken bounce is over? I don't know. It's just something to realize.
You know, CRM is down five. So every other day last week, these were the first ones to,
you know, to bounce. So now, you know, the semis acted better, so maybe the semis are something
to look a little closer to this week.
So every week you have to kind of figure out
where is the money going,
which is acting better, et cetera, et cetera.
And if you were an investor in Microsoft
or a swing trader in Microsoft three months ago,
you hate it, but then when it did the Red Dog reversal
at 383 and you bought it versus,000 last week or this and that,
It all depends on your time frame.
And if you've been an investor for 20 years, you don't care.
So again, where do you live and how do you go about your business?
All right, Options Mike, what are you doing? Hey, Scott. I haven't had options, Mike.
You know, I don't think today was the easiest today,
although I was leaning long.
I kind of felt last night when I saw the market open down like it did,
good futures, and then oil spiked to 119.
Like there was no real reason for oil to spike as much as
it did last night it kind of felt like it was just like what's going on here right why are we doing
this it's just fear just taking control now nothing nothing the mantra really hadn't changed so
you know i kind of hung out for a little bit this morning looking for loans i traded the
looking for loans i traded the es pre-market when it started to come off the lows quite a nice little
es pre-market when it started to come off the lows caught a nice little trade there
trade there tried to short tesla got out alive because it just didn't you know it just wasn't
wasn't going well and then i switched over and it's like the third time that tesla should have
broken below a macro area and really just did a mess just just just tried to do a liquidity sweep
it's turning into like a really tough trade there's no continuity
there at all whenever it looks good it fails at the downtrend whenever it looks like it's about to
really break them fall apart it stays there for a little bit and then gives you a broken bounce
what i want to name exactly it it's just it's you know to me it's just like it's just a sideways
chart trending water for the most part and it's just no momentum to hold it can't you can't get
continued momentum in the name.
But isn't that how we see a lot of names?
They're just reversal hammering lower and lower and lower.
I look at them like, oh, there's a reversal hammer maybe.
And then it just goes lower, right?
To me, the question here is like, I guess you said. Last week at this time, the market went green.
Everyone's like, oh, the war is priced in.
And then on Tuesday night, we were down 120 handles and if you took a third of your longs from monday you
had a lot to think about on tuesday so today i bet you people are going to be thinking i'm not
getting sucked in today or they're going to get a cute short and then tomorrow we'll get back to
like a little bit a little bit higher like more resistance so it's like the judo market the quasi
resistance. So it's like the judo market, the quasi, like 675 to 679 is really the resistance
area. Now that we're through 669 on the spies. So this isn't, you know, you could short the
market here and be wrong five points tomorrow or seven points and then still be right later in the
week. So it's, you know, I don't know. It's just tough. It's tough to have a feel where we're
going to go from here. I mean, I feel like we have a nice reversal today, right?
They could have broken us again today, Scott, and they didn't, right?
They absolutely could have destroyed us down to the 200-day with ease today on the SPY.
The VIX has come all the way off the highs and is basically going red.
Crude has given the whole move back.
So are you going long tonight?
I'm sitting flat tonight i think i'm gonna stay
you know here because i think the other thing that we keep forgetting is it's not just iran
that's bothering the market i mean that's front in the in the media but this whole ai blow up
is which has been con even friday with the oracle rumors that they um they stopped building their
the second half of their data center in Texas, which they came out denied today.
You have the whole inflation showing its ugly head a little bit again.
You have all these little undercurrents here.
I don't think anything is going to change here overnight where the market is going to scream out of the blue.
You know what's interesting is if you look at some names, there's some very, very, very subtle
relative strength clues that you can find.
And whether they follow through or not,
I'm watching a lot of the Anduril-related names
like Syntex Optics, right?
Those names are literally at their recent highs
and have not sold off at all during these pullbacks.
And then I'm looking at other names like Poet, Path, Oscar, which are still definitely off their highs, but they're also off their lows.
And they haven't really tanked that much with them.
So you're seeing little, very, very subtle things, little differences in relative strength that if the market does
eventually firm up uh some of these names might be winners but it's just so hard to divine where
they're going to go short term i agree there's definitely some glimmers of relative strength
but when that's a disconnect with the spies that just kind of tagged 4% or so off the highs, like, was that it based on this environment? Like last year, the environment wasn't as fluid and just tariff talk got us down 20, 21% off the highs. Now you have a lot of other things going on here from a higher level, and we're not even down 4% or more in the S&P. So you want to get involved in things that are showing relative strength, but then if we're going to go down further macro, which I'm not saying we are,
then everything will be dragged. Then you have to deal with it and trade around it versus
I think what Mike is doing, or I'm going to do also, is I'd almost rather be flattish,
and then if we gap up to 675 to 677, I could short that because it's probably not getting
through 675 and the supply is too fast. And if we gap down, I could short that because it's probably not getting through $6.77 and the spy is too fast.
If we got down, I could buy some things like I did
today and I can control my
You know, Scott, I would almost rather
I don't think just happened, by the way.
I'd rather see us get a dump here
and then go back into that choppy mess
we had for the last couple weeks before this oh you know i don't want to see us go back into that
i you know if let us you know if we need to we're not going to find buyers here let's drop it until
we find buyers at this point where they want to own the market right and i'm sorry i should have
been i should have been a little clearer on those names i was talking about what what i was trying
to get at some of those names is those are a few names that I feel like maybe have a longer term potential.
They're not necessarily trading vehicles.
And because they've showed better relative strength, these might be things that we've talked about in the past where you could sell puts lower or you could start to scale in.
But I agree with you, Mike and Scott.
I'm in no hurry to get in any concentrated
trades right now i prefer to wait for a good counter trend rally than a nice high level
digestion and then if we move after that right that's where i would be more inclined now it
still feels like we're in somewhat of a knife catching environment even though obviously today
it looks like we're doing a little bit of a reversal.
All we're doing is really expanding. Don't they call this the megaphone? They're just expanding the range?
At first, the range was 675 to 696, and then it went down to 669, and now the range is down to 662.
So we'll see if the higher end of the range lowers, which would then bring it from 696 to 687 like last week. So now maybe 679 is the next lower high that we might have to see until, like you said,
there's a real clear trend.
Right now we're just still consolidating with a downward tilt versus a more constructive
You know what I'd like to see, Scott, like on IGV and the software names?
I'd like to see them put in like on IGV and the software names? I'd like to see them put in a higher low.
I'd like to see them pull back again a little bit, put in a higher low off of the lows we had a couple weeks ago.
That would give me some confidence to maybe start taking some of those names to sit there and hold them.
That would be something I'd like to see here.
Yeah, well, it did that at 80.
If you remember, it did the at 80, if you remember.
It did the low, the overthrow low at 76.
It held 83 days in a row and then ran to 88.35.
So now what you probably want to see, the moving averages are curling underneath it.
So we probably don't want to see this break like 84.90-ish.
Trump, the war could be over soon.
I don't know where he's saying this right now.
Yeah, I just saw Tesla recapture Friday's low
on a spike. I knew something was happening.
post, and I'm seeing the quote
going around as it's from CBS.
Something on CBS for Trump.
But Scott, to your point,
I call this pattern in the indexes a hiking pattern
because I just want to go out and hike for a few hours
and not even pay attention.
I'm trading a little bit right now here.
Yeah, that is the headline.
It came out within the last two, three minutes. Obviously three minutes obviously once you said hey something's happening here that's probably when this had
crossed you know you can see the outlook first before it starts going around like that's the
beauty of having like a level two up um i'm along so i'm actually it tells you along some seo from
the morning so that's good i, which is double short oil.
That was a... I just scalped TQQ while we're talking here, too.
Yeah, I bought Amazon down below 211.
I'm not buying Google up six.
I just organized my sock drawer.
Trump says U.S. is far ahead of the
four to five week time frame they had previously given.
of the four to five week timeline is what he just said.
going down a buck forty now.
I just trimmed a little S&P.
Yeah, the market likes this. Okay.
Yeah, well, that was definitely one of the hurdles, you know.
It's so different, though. I mean, Scott, you and Mike, the idea that, like, I know that this administration games the market.
Like, you know that they're timing their statements.
And to think that, like, we never grew up in a time when the administration, I mean, they're timing their statements. And to think that we never grew up
in a time when the administration, I mean, they cared about it abstractly, but they were never
looking at it on a day-to-day basis saying, okay, what time on what day should we make an
announcement? Right? It's so crazy to think thatJ-I-A. And it's a post,
in a phone interview, President Trump told me the war could be over soon. Quote is,
I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no Navy, no communications. They've
got no air force. He added the U.S. is very far quote unquote ahead of his initial four to five
week time frame. Asked about
Iran's new supreme leader who
Trump only criticized he said I have no message
Well he's going to let him live
it sounds like that's good.
Yeah that is coming from a CBS
on X. W-E-I-J-I-A, is that at?
And she is quoting a conversation that she's saying she had with President Trump.
I think Trump's figuring out you have to leave someone to negotiate with, I think.
You know, like, can't take them all out, you know.
You know what's interesting is I always say with him him he gauges his presidency by the stock market
and when the stock market's down he pivots he's supposed to speak at 5 30 today and he came out
early yeah he's still going to speak at 5 30 so obviously he doesn't like what he's seeing in the
market and he wants to push it up 100 100 percent a little surprise is the cbs uh person yeah usl is tanking right now yeah usl just went from
green to red on the day it started more green early on was up 23 percent overnight i don't
know if that's ever was ever real and then it's all the way down to down by one percent now
uso is the united states oil fund for anyone who doesn't know. Oh, it was real. He's got to end this thing so that he can get that pot reclassification done
so my MSOS can pay off this week.
I might sell like 679 calls for tomorrow.
Just trying to think, you know, depending on how accurate this is.
And 679 is the area probably
does not go through but well we're getting close to recapturing friday's highs on the spx
and the dow and iwm we're getting close on everything queues are a little bit farther away
here's the question now if this was a couple months ago and i'll come over to you with this
options mike i would have maybe trusted this.
We're in a market where I think you guys
described it. It's not down, it's not up. It feels
sideways to down in slightly weakness.
So I'm just sitting here like, how much do I
trust this? It feels like we're going to get
a taco of the taco, is how my
expectation is. That's why I was just looking. I don't want
to short here, but if I could sell the $6.79
for $2 tomorrow, it gives me the 681 from where we were last night.
That would, I feel like, a comfortable way to do it with some longs.
So it's like you have a few longs and you have a short above by selling that.
You know, the other issue here is will Iran stop?
You know, it takes two to stop.
And Iran, you know, they seem to want to hit everything in the area and keep everything engaged at this point.
How much more can they do, Mike?
I mean, you look at the number of missiles that they're launching every day.
Their leaderships, I mean, I don't know that they can do it even if they want to do it other than like some, you know, renegade small groups here and there.
They can keep the straits shut down pretty left tight if they want to.
They can absolutely keep that shut down.
What do they, how do they keep it shut down with what?
They were decimating their Navy.
Like, what are they going to keep it shut down with?
It's only 12 miles away and two miles to navigate.
You can hit them with shoulder fire missiles.
It's not necessarily, you don't have to shut it down
to stop ships from going through.
You have to stop so the insurance doesn't
allow them to go through and
effectively over the last couple of days, the straight hasn't
shut. If you look at the traffic numbers,
you're right, Brian, they probably physically can't
actually go in and do it, but we were even seeing from the
other side, the Houthis and the Babam
and Deb Straight, they were able to
carry and do everything there
and disrupt this traffic, and they had less resources.
So I'd imagine no matter what, they still probably will be able to.
Oil's telling us it doesn't believe they're going to keep it shut down.
Well, the USO, I mean, SEO just kind of made a high in the morning,
but yeah, USO is just, it's not, but look where it was last night also.
So it's, you know, it's, it's not falling apart here because it's so much off the overnight
But I mean, that's a, I mean, look, anything could happen, but that's a classic blow off
I mean, we, we opened at 124, we're at 109 right now.
You know, phone interview, President Trump told me that's what we're going on we're
going to what president Trump told the CBS reporter that just moved the stock market trillions I'd
say I mean look what they look at the volume on USO today I mean it's incredible I mean if that's
not a blow-off candle I don't know what is yeah that's why I look at the bottom tail in SCO. I did it the lazy way.
I bought that instead of shorting USO.
So I think the other thing that we have to keep an eye on is XLF, right?
It's very hard for me to believe that the indexes can get back to all-time highs when XLF is under pressure.
It's really been looking like it's trying to bottom
the last week and a half.
I mean, I thought maybe it had on Friday.
Today, it's got what looks like another potential reversal.
Like if I could see XLF break that short term,
I guess it's more of an intermediate term downtrend,
start recapturing some levels.
Boy, a lot of things are popping now.
Bros. Hmm, interesting just popping bros.
Um, I don't know how true this comment actually was. There was a quote going around of Jim Cramer saying he does not see a path to deescalation
The sigh of relief when we saw that for sure.
Sometimes I don't play into this stuff.
Like I think he just makes plays on everything he gets asked about.
He's going to give his thoughts.
But I mean, the timing on this one is pretty impressive, actually.
All right, we got to make a post out of that one.
But yeah, this will be a very interesting next couple minutes here in the market.
Now, listen, in this 2026 stock market environment,
if you're not expecting a comment from the president in the opposite direction at some point today,
I think you're not playing this wrong, but I'm also done.
The VIX is absolutely getting crushed.
Absolutely getting crushed here.
Yeah. yeah yeah vix over 30 was quite it's it's it's funny how quickly stuff funny is a strong word it's interesting how quickly stuff can develop we've been on the spaces for a while in a 10 to
15 vix when we were been on the whole the whole world just changed the whole world just changed
and it's again yeah look at sma by the way way, CNBC is just going to pick it up right now.
We just went from 671 to 677, and now CNBC picks up the story.
Look at SMH, almost a perfect double bottom from the 4th of February.
It's interesting. thanks for flying now scott what's what's your what's your thought here because obviously it's this is a great move we want to participate in it but we've been talking
here and i've been saying this mostly and then i hear you well i'm trading what are you doing i
was along the seo from the morning i added to it on that dip and that you had it i'm along the spies
While I saw that happening, Amazon was down two and a half. I just started taking offers just because I wanted to get something. I figured if it would, and now I'm kind of piecing out of stuff.
And if we get to 679, the spies, I'll probably, I just put up the 682s or $1.75. So if we go to 679,
maybe I'll even sell the 684s, you know, And that'll be a way to kind of be just in case it gets walked back a little bit overnight.
From where we were to there, we're just back in the middle of the range.
I don't think we're going back to all-time highs by the middle of the week.
So that's kind of like my thought process as we're on the move here.
You can sell the 682s right now for $1.40.
That means you're good until 683.
Here's your headline, he's not going to like.
Trump moles taking over the Straits of Hormones.
That's something the market won't like.
We're going to get both sides of this.
If you haven't gotten it yet, wait.
Trump moles carnival cruises through.
Is the market not liking that one?
It's obviously an aggressive move
Those last 5-10 minutes or so
It was going to have a pullback at some point
Of what we've been talking about
Thought they knew what was going to happen
And who would have thought
It would be green today It just shows You have to keep an open market right you know we're going to crash and who would have thought it would be it would be green today you know it just shows good show you have to keep an
open mind you never know what can happen in the market yeah i always did is see we saw that we
saw the inside market leave and we knew some kind of news was going on so what could the news be
you have to have three different things in your head before the even news comes out one of them
obviously was the g7 or whatever the
hell they're called about releasing oil which would get oil lower which helped the market higher
and then the other one would be you know is iran ready to uh talk or is trump gonna say where we're
close and that was the one but anyway um yeah this is turning to a very interesting
I kind of like it here every once in a while
I've seen another quote from that same CBS
this is now a quote from Trump
they have to shoot and they better not
try anything cute or it's going
that country so i mean they don't i don't think you were at the sunshine and rainbows part of
this one just yet but that is in that one it also says as for the straight of immune whore moves
trump noted that ships are moving through now but he is thinking quote unquote thinking about
taking it over is that quote as well same. Same CBS official reporting on that one.
At least he didn't say they shot their load.
Trump administration weighing further easing of Russian oil and gas sanction.
That is a different source through Reuters.
I guess Russia is going to be a big winner of this
the uso is getting all the negative headlines right here is that when we're moving lower even more
it's hard to tell i don't know but tesla's high a day poet's high a day
bros is high a day imagine you didn't cover when it went back above 385 which is the pivot that's
15 ago a lot of a lot of traders out there that get emotional and think they're going to be right and don't know how to manage their thought process, getting crushed back and forth each day.
I don't know what levels make sense.
You have to know when something changes.
You have to know when things get reclaimed.
You have to know when you have to back off.
All little things somebody could have started shorting at 671 now they're quite
short to 677 and like oh my goodness could have you you know but anyway um i would guess that the
market starting on that big drop on the 10th of october has chopped up a lot of people that thought
in the previous few months. It's been a tough market. It really has.
I agree. I've had a tough three weeks and I'm pretty good at this.
And this exact market, I've gotten beaten up by a market like this numerous times in the last 30,
40 years. It probably took me 20 years to figure out not to fight markets like this numerous times in the last 30 40 years right it probably took me 20 years to figure out
not to to fight markets like this and i still want to well you gotta you know again like for me i
have also 500 people on my my virtual trading for the alpha team i gotta try and figure out how
responsibly they can make money day in day out week in week in, week out. I'm an owner too, so I get a piece of the business.
So although I make my real money, if I make money quarterly,
and when all things act together, I make a lot of money.
But for guys that have no salary, no health insurance that most traders don't have,
I got to make sure I got to try and give some good ideas to keep them at least making something or not getting killed.
You know, paper cuts happen.
I talk about that all the time.
But, you know, gushers and doing the wrong thing and being stuck,
that could really, really, you know, kill you.
And that's the last thing I want any guys to, you know,
There are only three options on any other – three outcomes on any other play.
By the way, the Spies are
a quarter. And we're in that gap.
But again, they could push this a little
bit higher too. So I just sold a little of the 682s for tomorrow,
but I'm going to have a few longs with it.
So my hedge will start at 682,
and if we pull in the last few minutes to let the view app catch up,
then I'll just buy some back and figure it out.
It's buying that gap, Scott.
It's into the gap we had down Friday morning's gap down.
It's got room all the way back to the 8-day there.
USO is slicing through levels like crazy right now.
Oil briefly halted there for a second and then reopened.
Okay, that makes more sense.
But I think it's this headline here that's also impacting it. Trump administration weighing further easing of Russian oil and oil sanctions amid price surge. Reuters sources. Now, five minutes, ten minutes after the last one around the CBS one.
And you know what's really interesting is if you look at a lot of the oil and gas names, like let's say Oxy or Devin, they never got back above their highs on that last Monday when we announced that we were – even the oil went crazy, right?
A lot of those names diverged, and I think that was a sign – I tried to short USO with zero DTs on Friday.
That's the first time I've ever done zero DTs because I thought there was that divergence and we were a little bit over a lot
overbought i was too early you know but the point is is like those those energy names i think were
telling us i mean it's easy to say in retrospect but i think they were telling us that oil was kind
of getting close to a top a potential top um because like i said they never hit new highs
never hit new highs, even though
even though oil went crazy on friday and this morning
oil went crazy on Friday and
I think this always goes to tell
there's a lot of different scenarios
where this happens, and I'm thinking some other stuff.
For example, when earnings come out.
By the way, guys, I've got to jump off because I've got to quarterback
the rest of the last 20 minutes.
Scott, is there anything you want to leave the people with, Scott? We always love having you
on here. Any extra thoughts you have, anything you're working on,
If you guys are not following Scott Redler
and the other speakers up here, you're completely missing out.
We've got some cool extra stuff coming,
which we'll talk about in the future,
but obviously Scott has all the awesome stuff that he is doing.
You should check out the link in his bio.
But yeah, anything you want to leave the people with, sir?
No, just, you know, you got to be clear-minded and and react like you know again we
we were on this call what a half hour ago and market felt different now the market feels
different the market might feel different again in multiple plans execution no deer in headlights
know your know your time frame and and execute just execute you know even if you did something
early that didn't work for you try it again again. Do it smaller. Get out of the paralyzed feeling, which sometimes happens to traders.
And overall, just don't have that FOMO.
A lot of people are like, oil's going at $200.25.
I'm like, all right, I'm buying the SEO.
And I bought it today at $9.25.
The loudest trade is not the right trade.
But anyway, tune into the 630 Club every morning.
You'll get my 20 minutes of free thoughts every single day.
630, 20 minutes every day.
I'll talk about what I'm seeing, how I'm seeing it, the keys to the day.
And if that can make you money, you can figure out how to find me other ways to make money.
And I love being with this group.
I'm having trouble muting. Shout out to you scott appreciate you as always sir
awesome we got about 20 minutes left in this trading day here we have a bunch more fantastic
conversations going on as always there is a few earnings this week oracles tomorrow
i don't know if anyone's interested in that one but um brian if we have you maybe you can kick us around and hear how and how you're feeling
uh on this market today uh well it's obviously it's a very different answer than it would have
been 30 minutes ago yeah it depends on what part of the day you're asking uh let's talk about this
one we got going on here.
I sit here and don't trust it.
Now, we're seeing this move here.
You guys are going to have a very different reaction.
My more thought is like, what does tomorrow look like?
I would imagine you go from where we were 20 minutes ago to now.
There is a lot of opportunity in there.
So I know you guys were active. So maybe have some thoughts around that and how you even like react quickly to news and information like this, but I don't know.
I'm sitting here. I don't know how much I trust it. So consistent, consistently profitable trading
is boring. Right. And so I'm just going to say something I've been saying again and again,
and if nobody likes it, you don't have to listen. A move like this, this initial move, right? We
don't know if this is the counter trend rally or if this is the end
of the pullback. We don't know if this is the start of a new move up or just a counter trend
rally. I can guess, right? Like this one feels pretty, you know, solid, but I'll wait until I
get to a higher percentage setup. And that is always the move after the move. You get a counter
trend rally, which we're starting right now. At some point, this will pause. It maybe pauses today,
maybe it pauses tomorrow. At some point, it will stop. I'll want to watch for a very high level
consolidation. That means if I measure the bottom of the move, which would be the low of today,
to where it starts to lose its momentum, I want to see a pullback that doesn't go maybe
more than 25, maybe 33% lower, right? It doesn't pull back more than a third in that range. I'd
like to see it for a day or two, although in this market, maybe it's a day. If we then start to
continue that move in the same direction as this counter trend rally, that's when I will really push on
the gas because it gives me a spot to trade against, not just on the indexes, but on individual
names. So I can determine my risk. I know where I'm wrong. And that follow through is a much
higher probability of success than this initial, you know, what could just be a counter trend rally.
The way that this has worked over the last few months is every time we get a one, two or three day move like we're seeing right now, a counter trend rally, it fails.
Right. And everybody that tries to buy it or buys it at the top gets washed out when we hit the lows again.
So, Evan, I'm right where you are.
This is like, you know, they call Missouri the show me state.
Right. This is the show me market.
Give me a pullback, a consolidation for a day or two.
Show me that you can continue going higher.
You can recapture moving averages that you can capture, recapture levels.
I have no need to be the first guy on the beach, right?
I'll wait till the first wave gets out there.
Give me a little bit of cover and then I'll be more interested in getting involved so that's how i would play it right now
yeah that definitely makes a lot of sense i i feel like it's a good time for traders in here
right now more intraday traders but the swing trading environment has been a little difficult
i can definitely see that being this market maybe it's uh maybe this is the start of us coming out
of it but again we're talking literally just saying there we this market. Maybe this is the start of us coming out of it.
But again, we're talking,
literally just saying there,
we've been talking about this is the show me market.
The market has held in very strong.
a lot of names under the cover.
Software is getting destroyed.
SmidCat names, some of them are doing well, but some of them aren't. And in that backdrop, in that environment, we still have
markets which we're holding in near all-time highs. You give it one or two big bounce days. I mean,
I'm sure we're basically talking about new all-time highs on SpineQQ. I'm sure Qs are a
little further than SpineQQ. But yeah, it's just an interesting market environment right now.
It's an interesting market environment right now it's an interesting market environment
right now generally brian for you like position sizing and how much you're trading and or do you
find yourself trading and sizing down a little right now is it both of them kind of opposite
normal sizing less trades how in general has the last couple kind of weeks for been for you in that
front so what i've done in the last couple weeks is um i've taken the opportunity to sell puts uh in names that i want
to acquire over time that i want to hold these are not trading names these are things i just have
on my radar i've talked about them a lot poet bros uh the andurl names, path, right? So last week and the week before, I cleaned up a lot of
those, the most recent round of puts I sold. And the idea about selling a put against the name you
want to own is you sell a put lower and either you're going to, the stock's going to be down
there on expiration. You're going to get assigned the shares, but you'll get them at a lower cost
basis because you have to take in the premium or if the stock rallies before expiration you won't get
assigned the shares but you'll at least collect the premium so if you've got time on your side
and a longer uh you know a longer view on a stock that's a really good way and that's what i've been
doing the last couple weeks in fact last week i cleaned up almost all of my names, all the open puts that I had. Some I bought back for profit.
Some I got assigned, like I think I got assigned ONDS. But I'm not in a hurry, right? These are
names that I hope to still have three, five, maybe even seven years from now. What I haven't been
doing is taking highly concentrated positions with very little wiggle
room because of everything we've talked about. This market can be up one or two days in a row
and then slam right back down. So you just have to know what gear to be in during different times
in the market. And if you're not in the right gear and you're not trued up to the style of,
or to the market environment, that's when people can really hit. And I think that's what's been happening. A lot of people, every rally, they go, here we go,
we're going back to risk on and they push things really hard. And then the market reverses.
That's just too exhausting. And I know Scott said he likes to feed things to his subscribers every
day. And I get that. And I've been there. But the way I work with my subscribers is I'll tell them there's no good odds right now, right?
We're pushing it if we're trying to force a trade right now.
I have no problem saying, yeah, I'm just sitting back and watching because I'll take three or four really fat pitches over 10 possible good pitches.
But that's just where I'm at in my trading career
and and look whatever works for everybody is is fine by me yeah that makes sense i was just going
ready to make a post about uso how it was up like 10 15 20 to pre-market trading and now it is moving
lower here down four percent i did see a headline that oil prices
quite the interesting bit but this is
I almost read out Em's meme there. I thought he was being
I almost got God on Twitter.
So we got that rip. Okay we got the big Twitter. Let me just make a quick comment.
So we got that rip, okay?
Now we're pulling back a little bit, which is fine.
The question is going to be, okay, here's a micro version of the move after the move.
I'm talking about days, but you can do it on any time frame.
So here's the pullback, right?
And the question is, will we consolidate here for a few minutes
and then turn around and rip into the close and finish at the highs?
Or will this initial move get retraced more than 50%?
But that's going to tell us a lot, I think, about whether this move short-term is real or if it was just a knee-jerk reaction from the market.
Yeah, that is a very fair point and then i'm sure tomorrow also
see a lot of continuation more not or the other way i'm sure tomorrow will be a big uh trendsetter
theme obviously last week monday came in red flips green kind of happened today tuesday was
red last week wednesday was green thursday fr, we're a little on the redder side.
So, I mean, this week is, we have an extra headline.
And this move here intraday was a little bit stronger.
But this is tracking towards last week a little bit.
And last week didn't end so well.
History does not repeat, but it certainly does rhyme.
I'm looking at the calendar for the week.
We do have CPI on Wednesday.
We have Oracle earnings. We have gdp and pce on friday we just don't know how much the market is going to be moving off of that one obviously we got the
really weak nfp print last week and uh that obviously scared the market a little bit did
you have any thoughts on that one obviously when you see a negative number when you're expecting
a positive i believe it was what negative 90 000 they were expecting plus 50 or it was negative 50 and you're expecting plus 90,000 a little bit weak on the NFP print
imagine the rest of the chops that it would look pretty weak but who knows
up more than 15% infinite trading two down by sometimes you can't really multitask that well
you just gotta get the post out you're thinking of
Brian, do you trade futures?
yes what was the question? I think I lagged there for a second do you trade futures? Are you asking me? Yes.
I think I lagged there for a second.
So if I'm trading futures, we're in trouble.
Because that usually means I'm scalping.
So yes, I will from time to time. Like last night, I tried to get long in Q futures a couple times.
Are you a prop firm guy or no?
And the reason I say that if I'm trading futures, we're in trouble,
is that usually means I like to swing trade.
Swing trade is the best bang for the buck.
So it means if I'm trading futures, it means I'm trading to chop your market,
and that's just usually not the best environment.
In fact, I've really tried to phase out of doing that in the last couple of years.
There's a lot of people who swear by futures.
Yeah, I mean, look, they are their own animal.
And people will tell you that futures move the truest in terms of technical analysis.
But I don't know. Everyone's got to feel comfortable with what they're in and it's just never been a place
that i felt totally comfortable in just like i don't like to trade thin uh thin stocks or adr's
or things like that like um i don't know i just it's never been really my wheelhouse although I will dip in there from time to time dip the toes in that's fair so I got another question here for
you we got a couple stuff going on and we are about 10 minutes from the market
close aren't really too many earnings coming up there's more interesting
conversations which I'm always excited for you are a West Coast guy which which
I'm an East Coast person I will swear by that I would never get up at like
you're barely even at your morning but I'm curious as a west coast
daily routine look like around
the market is it getting up at like
5am or something your time 4am
are you a super early riser
day's about to be done for you and it's one o'clock yeah are you just tired i'm just curious
from the west coast trader perspective how do you make sure you're ready to go yeah you know a couple
years ago i was a trader's expo and there was a guy sitting next to me who uh traded from hawaii
and uh market opens at 3 30 in the morning in in Hawaii. Right. And he's done by 10,
which I thought I had it bad. When I was a young buck like you, it was hard for me to get up early,
I'll admit. But once when you get kids, you have to get up early and then you just get older and
have less time on this planet. So you want to get up early. I'm up at 3.30 usually, you know,
Scott talks about his 6.30 club. I usually check in on that when I'm walking
around the neighborhood, it's three 30 out here, but like, um, yeah, so I'm usually up at three
30 and I'm just looking at news and reading and, uh, interacting with my community. Uh,
and then, yeah, markets closes at one o'clock. I do a update for my subscribers, which takes
about 45 minutes and then um i've got the
rest of the day off so that's nice but then you're going to bed at like eight o'clock nine o'clock
what time we go to bed yeah so i i'm very rarely up past eight uh these days yeah okay there's no
need to be again there's no need for me to be up be up i'm married i've got kids i'm like like what am i gonna do past eight o'clock so watch netflix i don't know i get that
but like what time do you eat dinner uh we usually eat about six six thirty
for me 10 is that prime time i'm sure it will keep getting earlier yeah totally look look when
when future proof is out here i'll be out past 8 o'clock. There are times when I do do that, but generally speaking, I don't.
We're going to use the word invest here,
even though it doesn't necessarily have to go into this conversation.
How do you invest in your sleep, your everything around this?
I think one thing we don't talk about,
and this is not going to be a conversation every single time,
but to be a good investor, to be a good trader, a lot of times you have
to be in the right mindset.
And there's a lot of small things that people do, not revenge trading, not revenge doing
this, but sleep, just, you know, balanced life, going to the gym, whatever it is.
I know a lot of people come in and swear by that.
So, um, I'm curious on stuff that you've seen in that direction over the
years like i look at the these this eight sleep company and boy do i want one i don't sleep well
and it's super expensive a subscription it's absolutely crazy but if i was able to consistently
get some good sleep out of it that might end up being worth and who knows but i'm just curious
that kind of intangible outside of this if there's anything you've learned throughout the years that
maybe worked for your thing yeah so I would say all things being equal,
if you remove, um, like addictions, like drug addictions or, or heavy alcoholism,
I would say even above nutrition, sleep is number one, the number one thing you can do for your
health. It is a secret power that people don't understand. There is a whole world of sleep hygiene that people do not understand.
And the reason I understand it is because about 10 or 12 years ago, my wife told me that I was literally stopping breathing in the middle of the night, that I would just have big moments where I'd be like that engulfing for air.
Now, I didn't notice it because I was asleep.
So I went in for sleep apnea study. I don't fit the, you've seen me, right? I'm tall, thin. I don't
fit the sleep apnea mold. Usually it's overweight, someone who smokes, whatever. But because of my
physiology, I had it. And I did a sleep study. They put me on a CPAP and I had, I didn't realize how bad my sleep had been and for
how long until I actually had the CPAP and woke up one morning feeling like I had gone
And ever since then, I've had amazing sleep.
And like I said, it's when your body regenerates, it has everything to do with
your energy during the day. And the most important thing you can do is go to sleep the exact same
time, get up at the exact same time, have a dark room, have it cool. There's like 10 different
things you can Google them. And if you get that down, that's the first keystone. Then you worry
about going to the gym. Then you worry about your diet.
Then you worry about other things to optimize.
But if you don't have sleep down, you're fighting against headwinds, in my opinion, no matter what age you are.
Have you noticed any differences in the trading, the investing style?
Obviously, you might not have direct, I was this performance before, before this after but i'm sure you felt it a little bit i'm also like i don't know it definitely makes a
lot of sense that that you'd be doing better i also would think there's different emotions that
play in when you're tired maybe the the revenge trading you get that urge or the inclination a
little bit more um yeah so it definitely makes a lot of sense being able to sleep but respectfully
also i mean the market started 9 30 a.m eastern for you it's 6 30 you of sense being able to sleep. But especially also, I mean, the market started 930 AM Eastern.
You got to be able to be up and ready to go.
There are people who don't take the market seriously.
And you can kind of tell.
I think the other thing that when you get good sleep hygiene is you, people are talking about like how to manage their time.
Managing your time is bullshit.
It's managing your energy, right? You'll find out periods of your day that you have more energy,
less energy. You'll be able to optimize what you do when. Like energy is, you can't do anything
else in life without energy. And it all stems first from sleep, then from diet, then from
exercise. So that's one of the things that I learned is once I got my sleep on point and
started to understand when my energy peaks and troughs were during the day, then I learned to
manage it, right? Meaning not getting too over your skis when your energy is high, not getting
too sedentary when your energy is low. It's a process. I don't have it perfected, but yeah, I'm totally more cognizant,
more mindful about these things.
And I know that there's certain days when I'm just off
and I probably shouldn't be trading because I'm not in the right mindset
or I'm tired or I'm cranky or I don't have low energy.
That's when you're apt to make big mistakes.
And that's why consistency is such a key for long-term success in the market.
I also hear a lot of people kind of setting different rules.
And it's easy to set rules.
It's hard to stick with them.
Just like I see people try and set budgets, everything like that.
There are a couple people.
A lot of people say they want a budget.
Few people make a budget.
Even a few actually stick to that budget.
So I'll tell you real quick. So goals and rules are bullshit. Systems is what you have to have in place. I'll give you an example. I want to save more money. I want to put more money away.
like, oh, I take a certain amount of money automatically. It's deducted from my paycheck.
It goes right into my 401k. Things that you don't have to sit there and manage, you don't have to
work at. The more you put your systems in place and then work your systems, that's how you'll
reach your goals. Goals without a system or a way to get there are meaningless. Okay, now look at
the market now. So we had this pullback, right? We had this little maybe 15 minute pullback that I was talking about. And now we're starting to rally, right? Now we're starting to move back towards the highs. Now, if we do close here or higher, I would be more apt to think that that was a, this move that we had today was real opposed to if we had sold off 50 or 60% of that initial move after Trump's news broke.
Yeah, that definitely makes sense.
Okay, so I'm going to drop, buddy, but don't forget about me for Future Proof in New York, baby.
I am excited. Future Proof coming to California.
We got the New York events.
We got a lot of stuff coming up here in the near future shout out to you Brian I
appreciate you later ways bye-bye awesome I do see some of our friends down below
stocks Napa Urkel feel free to come up and join me up here we do have a one
minute until the market closed there aren't really too many earnings that
report after today there was really just a as my computer freezes and as I shut the tab I don't really
don't think there was anything that people would go in and care about Hewlett
Packard HPE and Casey general stores C A S Y let me do one or two things also as
well dude things also as well.
I will run through a couple of the news stories for today.
We are getting to the market close again. So this is when a lot of companies will report different news stories, how they're doing,
So let me get my dashboard set up and everything.
Also have Ryan behind that Wolf account up here.
He'll come in and talk into the conversation in a good little bit.
But that was the market being done for the day.
I got a notification CopEx down 5% there at the end.
So yeah, like we were saying,
that the war could be over soon.
This is via a CBS reporter on X.
behind-the-door conversation
that they ended up having,
that the war could be over soon.
were close to being reached. There was also another headline that they might take off some
of the sanctions that happened on Russian oil and gas. We shall see trying to help with the
rising prices. So that did give us quite the turnaround. The market was already going from
red to green, but this pushes up from basically even
to up a percentage point, whatever it was on the day. USO, the US oil fund went from up 20%
in the overnight trading, up 10 to 15% in the pre-market trading to down 5%. Quite the intraday
turnaround there for USO. Joby Aviation had a couple headlines today. Joby is proud to be a
partner in multiple winning applications for the FAA's eVTOL integration pilot program, EIPP,
ensuring the future of flight is designed, built, and flown right here in America. That is a headline
via Joby Aviation today. There was, like I said, the President Trump comments. I will say it was
pretty crazy this morning. I did see Jim Cramer, Mrramer mr inverse kramer jim kramer came out and said that he does not see
a path to de-escalation in the u.s israel iranian conflict now obviously we did get the trump
comments today it's interesting timing there microsoft ceo satya nadella he came out with
an announcement saying they announced co-pilot Cowork, a new way to complete tasks
and get work done in Microsoft 365.
People tend to like those headlines there.
Obviously, I am out here in future proof,
so I might have missed a couple headlines.
I got to see Tom Lee, a few others. I'll probably get a
good Dan Ives interview tomorrow and a few other stuff. So I'm trying to get some good content,
some good behind the scenes stuff for you. Maybe setting up some conversations. I got to play
around with a robot today. The Koi bot from CraneShares. You guys know we bring them on the
space every once in a while. So shout out to them. i was just scrolling down my timeline and saw that i did
there is a bit my booth here so uh i'll ask them about when my ethereum is going to go back up
uh amazon's self-driving car startup zoops has started to roll out uh i started to map out the
streets in dallas texas and phoenix arizona so zoops if anyone has been to vegas recently you
will see a lot of these vehicles driving around.
They are Amazon owned and they should be launching in Dallas, Texas and Phoenix, Arizona in the not too crazy distance future.
The VIX was over 30 earlier today.
I got a screenshot of it at 31.
Where did the VIX end up closing the day?
VIX ended up closing the day closer to 25, 26. So a little bit of an intraday there. We'll see what ends up happening past that.
There was Uber. Uber came out and confirmed that they will be expanding a feature designed to match
female riders with female drivers nationwide. Previously, it was a pilot test in a certain area. Now it is being pushed out nationwide.
I'm pretty sure we got a lot of you guys down there.
Do we have any HIMSS fans in the spaces chat down below?
Please go in and drop that down below, uh, down there.
I'd be curious if you guys got any HIMSS fans in the crowd.
I guess HIMSS users, but I think you guys might be a little bit less, uh,
omitted with it, but I think you guys might be a little bit less omitted with it.
The hair is going for myself, so we could use some HIMS.
They had a little deal or conversation around them and Novo Nordisk.
Novo Nordisk makes one of the weight loss drugs.
They had previously sued HIMS and taken them off the whatever.
Saturday, it came out that there was going to be
a little bit of a partnership between them. You'll be able to buy Novo Nordisk weight loss drugs
through HIMS and HERS Health. And then there was a couple headlines this morning kind of talking a
little deeper, some of the restrictions, some of the other things that's actually happening
underneath it. But that was enough to send HIMS and HERS stock, ticker H-I-M-S, to be up 42%.
More than 40%. It was up over 50 a little bit earlier in the
pre-market got up to as much as up 55% 2452 we need the day closer to $22 but uh but yeah
hims and hers health ended up having a nice move panel earnings today or tomorrow I do not see
Palo Alto today or tomorrow.
When does Pan L report earnings? This is a comment section down below from the comment section to Dexter Morgan. Oh, maybe it is Pangea Logistics. I apologize. I thought you were
talking about Palo Alto Networks. Pangea Logistics reports earnings tomorrow after the close. P-A-N-L
Stock Talk name. Shout out to him on that one.
That was a lot of the news stories from this morning and today.
Obviously, Tom Lee and Michael Saylor updated their Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings.
The NASDAQ is partnering with Kraken, crypto exchange Kraken,
in a plan to launch 24-7 stock trading.
It's going to be tokenization, all that stuff.
But if you're thinking they're like
oh the markets might not be going 24 7 like we can resist it we can fight it that's not it's not
no chance guys it's going it's going to happen i think it's a bracelet maybe you you figure out
times when you can sleep all your stuff like that but uh market seems to be getting closer and
closer to 24 7 at least 24 5. shout chat to monotive wealth i sent him an
invite he did tell me he is traveling abroad great guy as always but uh stock sniper how are you doing
sir is there anything that i missed there were there any news stories that you're um honestly
you covered today pretty well uh with across your headlines are you hearing me all right before i
continue talking yeah you're good nice um but you, there's a couple things there that I could go a little bit
more in depth on. One that I want to talk about for a second is the HIMSS and HERS and Novo Nordisk
partnership. The one thing that kind of makes this interesting is for anybody who's not directly
familiar with the timeline of events that has gone down with HIMSS in the last three, four months,
the timeline of events that has gone down with HIMSS in the last three, four months.
Basically, Novo Nordisk was suing HIMSS.
And shortly after the suit was announced, a couple of weeks, HIMSS stopped selling their
best-selling product, which was the oral weight loss pills.
And that was basically very similar, I guess, towards Novo Nordisk.
So basically, after we saw that headline come out, they subsequently stopped
selling that. And now we're seeing that they're partnering together. So the biggest impact
that this has, you know, is no more lawsuits. That's going to be HIMSS's biggest benefit
from this partnership right away. And also HIMSS is going to be able to continue selling
what their best selling product was. Novo Nordisk is going to get increased distribution
capabilities through this because they're going to be exposed towards a whole new channel.
And they don't really have the biggest step in the telehealth space.
Most of Novodisk products are going through traditional pharmacies.
So it's going to really help them out a lot on the distribution side of things, along
with how HIMSS is going to get the lawsuit dropped and they're going to get their best
So it's going to be a very big partnership to watch.
I have no idea how it's going to be priced.
It seems like a pretty good day for him today thus far.
We'll see how it continues to trade.
Obviously, we're starting to see different headlines,
but the biggest headline of today that kind of came out
was through that over-the-phone interview with Trump
where he's saying that it seems like the war
is going to be ending sooner now than anticipated.
Originally, we were seeing a four-week schedule, I believe.
If I'm not mistaken, But it seems like, again, the war is not really to stay for a long
time, which made the market immediately start trading higher, just about across the board.
But except some of the defense contractors started to see a little bit of selling for some pricing in
there, I guess that was for an extended period of wartime going on there. But that was a pretty
interesting headline to see. Did you talk about the Anthropic lawsuit earlier today? No. I see. Anthropic actually sued the
Trump administration today. There's two separate lawsuits. One of them was filed in California
federal court, and then the other one was in the appeals court in Washington, D.C. You know,
basically the main thing that they did not like is, you know, when they were saying that they're a supply chain issue.
And it seems like Anthropic itself, which is also backed by Amazon.
And we saw a little bit of a negative reaction in Amazon as these headlines are coming out.
But we saw the Anthropic lawsuit kind of not react well on Amazon.
And they're suing them in two courts.
And this is basically they're saying that their actions are unprecedented and unlawful specifically
on DOS signed a pretty big merger agreement today also with Mistral Mistral
is going to accelerate their rollout so this is basically with a new guy
partnering with one of the older contractors that's been around for a
while and secured and has a very nice resume of being on many high payout and great tier
contracts over the last couple of decades.
Mistral has supported multiple departments as well in the defense, the federal and also
in the public safety side of things.
And that's going to really help Ondas a lot as they're going to be kind of getting some
new exposures through this.
And Mistral is looking to kind of get out of this
partnership and continue to be able to produce somewhat autonomous products, new drones,
and just continue producing new technologies at a high level and at a rapid speed. And they're
definitely noticing Andas with the disruptors. Andas also seems like it's going to be, it has
caught a bit of a bid, and it seems like it's being priced in for some more post-conflict cleanup as we already know they did get that one contract on the palestinian israel
border area where it was mostly focused on the post-conflict cleanup side of things it was much
better to send drones in there and remove the landmines from the fields there as opposed to
these drones as opposed to people doing it where if it was hit to hit a mine it would actually end
up resulting in a fatality but if the drones drones are moving it, in worst case, the drone hits a mine,
you just lost the drone. And I'm sure that they have plenty of drones. We saw that already happen.
But again, it seems like there's going to be a lot more post-conflict cleanup on the table for
Undosk. I don't really know necessarily when some of these times would be. As we know,
there's multiple conflicts going on in the world right now under multiple continents.
So they definitely have a pretty large total addressable market on the post-conflict cleanup.
But we will see soon eventually, I guess.
Don't really want to try to even speculate when some of these conflicts will end.
We did see that big headline of today and the biggest takeaway of today is that the conflicts are likely,
or the main conflict of the world is likely going to end quicker than anticipated.
But that's basically what I got for you today.
Appreciate the rundown, Mr. Sniper there.
I did see we did just get Hewlett-Packard as well, HPE report earnings.
Not one that too many people, well, maybe.
Not one that too many people are watching though, I don't think.
Revenue was basically in line with expectations.
I'm seeing EPS of a small beat.
Forward guidance was also a little bit mixed. It looks like a lot of the numbers were in line with expectations. I'm seeing EPS of a small beat. Forward guidance was also a little bit mixed.
It looks like a lot of the numbers were in line with expectations for HPE.
But yeah, HPE stock is up about 0.5% here in after hours.
I appreciate you, Mr. StocksNapo.
They did raise their gap EPS guidance pretty recently.
I was sorry if I butt in on anyone earlier.
Is right when we were talking about it?
But there was hot news off the press, so I wanted to kind of –
I was trying to – I could halfway hear you guys
because my other headphones were going on,
but I was trying to get that news out there to everyone.
That was pretty wild. First, like the HIMSS Nova Nordisk thing. I mean, obviously HIMSS
had a lot of shorts in that name, so it made sense that it had a huge pop. I'm starting
to think more on the thesis side that Nova Nordisk actually benefits from this just as
much because they're basically getting the distribution side of hems but they're selling their drug more and they're
they've been struggling to compete so maybe that helps on their end so i'm wondering if like over
the medium to longer term this is a better benefit for nova nordisk than it is for for hems because
i mean they're basically just using hems like a pharmacy almost at this point, which, you know, anybody could sell their drug.
So I don't know. It's interesting.
But that was my thought piece on that was Novo Nordisk, which has been beaten up.
You look at that chart, it's been absolutely beaten up.
But maybe this starts to turn a corner for them and a little bit bigger picture thing.
But the HIMSS reaction, obviously, heavily shorted name, coming off of
a very low valuation, big time beating up. Beautiful move on that stock today, of course.
And here we are right back. I mean, you won't notice that if you watch the futures last night,
the futures hit what the equivalent would have been of a 200-day moving average on the S&P and the Nasdaq both last night.
Really, on the S&P, it was basically the exact low of the night.
Do you have to visit that during regular hours on a SPY or QQQ chart?
But it was interesting that that's exactly where we bounced last night,
started to get some better news.
And then, of course, this bigger news this afternoon.
We do have Trump speaking this afternoon, 530 Eastern.
That means like 615 Eastern?
Yeah, so like 620 something at least.
It's always like 40 minutes later at least.
Good estimate on that, Evan, actually.
But yeah, we'll see. He's because
he said he had a bunch of other events and stuff going on and some fundraiser thing or
something. But 530 expected to hear from Trump before he goes back to DC this evening.
What have you been watching in this market? You're obviously a little bit more of a trader,
an active intraday trader. I'm curious on how today was for you we had a quite the intraday reversal uh which was a little unexpected
unless you were expecting it i guess but even before that the markets were going from red to
green similar to last monday but obviously the strength of the end of the day looks a lot different
now after that last headline came in so uh from as a trader i'm curious your perspective on today
what type of stuff you were watching and maybe how you're feeling heading in tomorrow.
Yeah, so a couple of things.
One, breaking news right here.
I believe Stock Talk is going to make an appearance here shortly.
Breaking news off the press there.
No, to answer your question, the one thing that I've been kind of looking for more than anything is for the leadership to come back into this market.
And if you look at the last probably week or so of action, you've noticed that the NASDAQ itself is actually held in a little bit better.
And the S&P and IWM, the Russell, the Dow even, have kind of caught up to the NASDAQ on the downside, while the NASDAQ itself is kind of held into this lower portion of the range.
Seeing that come strongly off the lows today, seeing names like NVIDIA up 2.7% today, some of these other names holding in their well, pushing back up.
The beginning of the signs that I'm looking to see, and obviously
one day doesn't change a lot of things in general, but I want to see the beginning of kind of tech
leading us back. And I'm wondering if this kind of whole causation thing of everything going on
might create that opportunity. So that's one of the main things I'm watching. The NASDAQ itself
holding in there, software looking like at least put in maybe some type of local bottom, at least in the medium term.
And seeing some of these tech names kind of lead us back up.
Now, from a technical standpoint, you held in basically the same low area, except for like the S&P came a little bit lower.
But then you came right back up.
Now, you still have a little bit of a lower high, but you're essentially accepting back
into value is what a lot of market theories call it.
And so you traverse back to the other side.
And that's exactly what we've done today, at least in the NASDAQ and several things.
So like a lot of that looks very healthy and very constructive to me.
And then the one other piece that I'll kind of add here
is a lot of times when you have kind of a sideways market,
a choppy kind of range bound market,
you need kind of like the rubber band to get stretched
to kind of give you that catapult.
So if we are going to kind of start
to make a move back towards the highs,
you kind of need that, like you need some juice behind it. And to kind of start to make a move back towards the highs, you kind of
need that, like you need some juice behind it. And to get juice behind it, a lot of times you
have to have some type of pull down to then have shorts covering and buying come back in,
kind of enforce and get momentum going towards the upside. Today could be, I'm not saying it is,
but today could be the start of that. And I'm hoping it is. I know a lot of us looking at our
long-term portfolios are probably hoping that that's the case, but that's kind of where I'm
looking right now as I'm seeing that. And you also kind of have this like wall of worry back
in the market right now that you can start climbing back up. And I'm just, I'm hoping that
that's what we have today. I'm not fully convinced on it yet,
but I definitely, just looking at the action in kind of the different pieces.
I feel like we were talking about this,
this is a prove-it market,
where my base expectation is for CHOP,
and the market has to prove me otherwise, right?
I mean, that's what I feel like.
Yeah, I mean, definitely.
It's, you know, fool me once, fool me twice. And I think that can be said for both things because then I can't tell you the amount of people, and it's within the numbers as well. You see the amount of people that were hedged, you know, short this market that were shorting the market or hedging their portfolios to the short side was very high.
was very high. And so every time the market came down here to the lows, one, you have the
mechanical action of some of those people taking profit. And that kind of sprung us back up,
you know, multiple times over the last three weeks, basically, maybe even a month at this point.
But the other thing on the prove it, just as much as people want to say, you know, okay,
prove to me that we're actually still in this bull market. We're going to go back to the upside.
It's also could be said, hey, prove it that this market's actually going to roll over and break down.
Because every time that we've come down here to these lows, the bid has continued to stick in.
All we've done is, you know, hang out in the same range.
I've tested a little bit lower a couple times.
And you've had a rising 200 moving average on the daily chart catch up to where the action's at.
You haven't terribly broken.
I mean, yes, there's a little bit of broken structure.
There are some charts that still need some help to repair.
But I don't think it's going to take as long as maybe some people think to repair some of those charts if we get some follow through on this with this news headline. If things calm down over there, obviously oil being where
it was, was a huge concern. If that keeps coming in, there goes your big fear. I mean, now, yes,
Evan, there are other things, right, that people are still worried about in the market. I mean,
the jobs number just came in negative. Private credit still has a lot of issues that people are
very concerned about. So are there still things there? Yes. But could this be the wall of worry
that we climb back up? I think also, yes. And I think you have to factor that into whichever
thesis that you want to subscribe to. you Ryan show us a Ryan if anyone
doesn't know and you guys enjoy trading there's a wolf trading spaces and live
stream sorry last year that is live all day every day on the wolf trading
YouTube page you should go in and check it out if you guys are not already it is
an awesome follow live all day every every day. The market's open. The Wolf Trading Crew is live and actively trading.
Appreciate you for joining us up here, as always.
Yeah, it's going to be an interesting week in the market.
Looking forward, we obviously have CPI on Wednesday.
We have PCE and GDP on Friday.
There's Oracle earnings tomorrow.
There's also major earnings on Thursday, Adobe.
Oracle could be interesting.
People have actually been paying attention pretty closely to Oracle.
Well, I was going to ask you on the Oracle thing before we shift too far away from that.
Did you hit on any of that news?
I know because Sox on Spaces, obviously,
Friday wasn't live. Headline comes out 20, 30 minutes later, possible counter headline to it.
And then I saw they did put out like an actual release around that project in Texas, which
kind of spooked the markets on Friday when people said, oh, are these data centers going to have to,
are they all going to start slowing down and, you know, not going forward with current plans or stopping future plans and stuff and kind of seeing where they're at?
And it seems like all that got walked back.
I don't know if you hit on that piece much, but I thought that was interesting around Oracle and that Texas project.
Yeah, we just touched on it very briefly, very briefly.
For anyone who doesn't know, on Friday, I'm sure you guys knew this.
It doesn't know on Friday.
I'm sure you guys knew this.
There was a headline that came out that Oracle and someone else were going to stop working on their extension to a data center they were working on.
So the story was not that the data center that they were building was going to stop.
It was the data center expansion on top of that building that was going to stop.
There was another headline that came out that Meta Platforms was reportedly negotiating for that contract for the extension of it.
So it was going to be basically two separate data centers, I guess.
And I didn't get to too deeply see the headline from this morning in Oracle, the statement that they put out.
Sniper, I heard you talking about it a little bit, but it was basically saying like, hey, that was fake news.
We are going to still continue to build this extra data center here on the side.
it was a lot of headlines to say absolutely nothing has changed but the market obviously
reacted pretty aggressively off it and the market is ready to sell stuff off because of
any slippage in the data center it's like waiting for that it really is so um i didn't really look
too much on oracle tonight i don't know how the stock ended up performing,
but I'm sure it was a little healthier into the close.
I mean, it recovered a little bit from Friday.
It was still down, obviously, pushed down at the open,
but pushed back up, closed above where it opened at today,
even though it was slightly down from Friday's close.
The statement Oracle actually put out on their X post, recent media activity about the Abilene site are false and incorrect.
First, Crusoe and Oracle are operating in lockstep to deliver one of the world's largest AI data centers in Abilene at record-breaking pace. Two buildings are completely operational and the rest
of the campus is on track. Second, Oracle has completed
leasing for the additional 4.5 gigawatts to deliver on our commitments to open AI.
So that was the official statement. They have a full link to an article, I guess, below that.
But that was the official statement that Oracle did put out after that kind of noisy headline run
on Friday. And then, yeah, earnings tomorrow as well.
You think about it within the bigger picture of AI,
data centers and all that stuff,
expected tomorrow at 4.05 p.m.,
1.55 EPS and $16.9 billion in revenue are expected.
Looking forward to those earnings tomorrow.
I think the market, we know the numbers
are going to be pretty good. We know they're going to say a really large backlog, AI backlog,
remaining performance obligations, whatever it is. The question is going to be,
I lost my train of thought as I was looking at something.
The question is going to be, does the market take this?
Does the market select this?
The market really does want there to be some fear and the data center build out,
and I don't know if they're going to get it.
I'm seeing Joby put out another headline from their Twitter account.
Joby is honored to be selected as a key partner in multiple winning applications
for the FAA and U.S. Department of Transportation eVTOL integration pilot program.
We are proud to stand alongside our blah, blah, blah.
But yeah, Joby is moving a little higher, I am sure, here in after hours.
Well, they might have had the move-in intraday.
Joby's stock did a turnaround there, and it's uh i don't know it's a little weird but they did post that on their twitter account at joe b aviation for anyone who is interested in that i also don't
know if you got to see today uh amp i i got a nice picture with the Coid robot. Pretty cool.
We got some good videos at it.
We even got a wolf logo on it. That was pretty awesome.
not see that. Is that on your timeline?
I think I posted to the Stock Market News page, yeah.
appreciate you posting a picture of my
portfolio last night, but it does look a lot better
No. from our portfolio last night, but it does look a lot better. It was a lot of red. No, I mean, some red, but like compared to what it opened up on the 24-hour trading last
night on Robinhood, it looks pretty ugly.
We were looking at USO and crude oil, and USO was in the overnight session on at least
one or two of the platforms up by 20-something percent. Then it ended the day down by five.
That is quite the intraday turnaround.
It was a 32% high or low on just crude oil, just the features that most people track.
Just CL if you're looking to type it in somewhere and take a look at it.
But 32, I mean, that is an insane move. And, you know, I don't want to do the hindsight thing,
but when last night you have, you know,
spaces on this app with 1,300 people on it
and everyone saying that, you know,
oil's going to 150 and 200 and, you know,
hundreds of new floor and all this stuff.
And you almost think one of two things.
You think, okay, that it's about time for something to cool down.
It's like when silver hit 100, whatever it hit,
pretty similar thing there.
All the Bitcoin spaces were now talking about silver
when it was up in like the 120 area.
So it kind of had that little feeling last night to it as well.
But then the other side is this,
the Trump playbook that we've seen play out multiple times now.
I continue to lean into that because not from the politics side of things,
but just for how it affects the markets.
I think it's not even really that debatable that the administration cares about the market pretty much more than anything, period.
And anytime the market gets really shaky, just like when the bond markets wanted to blow up a couple times and different things, they usually step in with something.
Whether it's a piece of good news or whether it's backing down on something, whatever it is.
and today that same playbook played out again.
And today, that same playbook played out again.
As I see our friend Stocktalk joining us up here,
I bet he's got a lot of thoughts over all the crazy different things
that have happened over the last, well, guess what,
72 hours at this point since we last spoke.
What's up? What's up? How are you guys doing?
Always great when we get you on the spaces.
As always, every day, Monday, Thursday,
I've been slammed lately.
I was closing on a property today.
Is this a ranch or is the market?
I'm selling one of my properties.
Yeah, it's just an old rental property I have
that I've been wanting to get rid of for a while.
So I'm just closing on that.
But I was wrapping that up today.
Good day towards the end of the day.
Yeah, did you see the headline that did the turnaround?
The Trump said the war might be over soon, yeah.
But there was some interesting, I guess,
back and forth on that, on this commentary.
There were some comments around the straight-up from Moose
and maybe trying to go in there.
Yeah, like taking it over.
Yeah, so it was two steps in the right direction, maybe half a step back.
I'm still kind of expecting the taco to the taco and saying we're going to keep going,
but the market obviously ripped higher there.
USO was up like 20% in the overnight trading last night,
and then now it's down five, closed the day.
Yeah, it's funny because everything ripped in the back half of the session
even the defense names which were relatively strong which is interesting because that may be
the market pinpointing exactly which risk it was concerned about which is the straight up
or moves risk which is what a lot of people have been saying i don't want to just say i've been
saying that but a lot of people have been saying that um the market may not think that hostilities are
going to seize but that the united states is going to find a way to relieve concerns about
the straight um like make no mistake i think all of the selling of the last two sessions was
related to the straight and not related like i don't think the market gives a shit if we are at
war i really don't i think the market only cares if if we are at war. I really don't.
I think the market only cares if there's a geopolitical risk involved.
I mean, the greatest analog to this is the proxy war that we've been fighting in Ukraine for years.
You know, the market just doesn't care.
And that's a pretty resource- region of the world too right so
it is always commodity driven when concerns arise around conflicts like this and any attempt to
resolve the commodity volatility i think is good for markets and you saw that response now it's not
over yet um trump's saying that the war might be over soon or saying that we're going to take control of the straight over Moose is not a magic solution. Right. The straight has to be reopened.
it over from a technical standpoint, although that was a hell of a bounce into the end of
And I'm sure Amp talked about this or you guys have already touched on this, but we
did test that 200-day overnight on the queues, which I would like to see an intraday test.
I'm not a big fan of overnight, after hours tests of major levels.
I like to see like real volume on an intraday session test that area but it's not
necessary um you know and even on an intraday basis we came down into what what was the lows
here the candle today 591 which is like three dollars above it you know you don't have to
literally touch it so can that constitute a test sure um into the end of the day we retook 607
which is technically a 90ma recapture i think let me see here yeah it's a 90ma recapture but again
below the 21 so but we're just not out of the woods yet you look at the daily candles on on
on the queues and it looks like you know nightmare from elm street like it's just
terrible you know the daily structure is just super noisy.
Yeah, it's consolidative.
If you really want to take a glass half full perspective and say, look, this is just consolidation within a range since October of last year.
You could make a technical argument for that.
I mean, it's not the prettiest consolidation you've ever seen.
I would describe it more as chop.
But you could make an argument for that. not the prettiest consolidation you've ever seen it's i would describe it more as chop um but you
could make an argument for that like look the markets have just been in a in a very volatile
consolidative attitude since october 10th of last year when we had a big massive knife down candle
in the queues for those that remember october 10th of last year um and since then it's been a
volatile mess like you know fought one two three, five attempts at all-time highs that were rejected.
Brutal chop in the last two months with very, very distributive volume profile.
Spy has been a little cleaner.
But, yeah, look, we're just not out of the woods yet.
I mean, we didn't even reclaim the 100-day on Spy today.
So a couple days of this type of action, sure.
But we need to see follow through.
What has been the hallmark of the chop in the last couple of months has been gap up,
get stuff, or gap down, buyers step in and catch it.
Like that's, I mean, that is the definition of chop, but you want to see directional follow
You want to see trend return in one direction or another.
Like I said this in the middle of the sell off a couple of weeks ago, but like, or middle
of the chop a couple of weeks ago, but like, I would just prefer, you know, a bandaid ripped
off type of selling where you just get considerable downside in two or three sessions and then
buyers step in for a v-shape recovery i
prefer corrections like that i know some people find that scary but i prefer that i don't think
anybody likes chop and um when you have chop you can't put too much credence into any one day of
action that's like one of the guiding principles i think for a choppy environment you can't you can't
see a big day like this in the back half of the session and then go, okay, we bottomed, it's over.
And the same way you can't see a red day and be like, okay, we're going lower or we're trapped below the moving averages at this point because we've seen how headlines can move this market.
So you need follow through. If you get follow through tomorrow and Friday,
you could see both major indexes above all the moving averages in very, very short order.
Conversely, we could be red again tomorrow. And then that would reverse a lot of the attempted
structure repair that we had today. So obviously, I'm sure everyone's portfolio is closed green
today. It would be pretty hard for you not to be. I think almost every sector was green into the close.
Every major sector, at least besides like XLE and XLF, you know, you had SPY green into
the close, QQQ, IWM, JETS, Crypto, Biotech, RK, pretty much everything was big green
So I'm sure everyone's portfolios did
today i'm not going to go back and talk about how well the portfolio did today but um i'm sure
everyone was up today take that with a grain of salt be cognizant of the index structure and once
the index structure is in full repair then i think you can start buying stuff again and, you know, getting
Some people are going to want to play hero in an environment like this.
Everyone has different styles.
I certainly don't have like a hero type of style.
I wait for structure to repair.
I made a note about this in our Discord this morning, but I just said, look, last year,
some of the best buys that we made were in end of April, beginning of May, some even in early June of last year.
That was way after the tariff tantrum crash.
That was weeks after, in some cases, a full month, month and a half after the tariff tantrum crash.
Once the indexes had stabilized, we had seen five or six big recovery candles in the indexes uh prior to that um and so
in spite of i put up a 505 return last year without buying anything at the lows anything
i didn't buy anything at the liberation day lows and did very very well last year um exceedingly
well and so i feel the same way about this chop here. Like, I don't feel the need
to buy everything I want to own at the very bottom of this chop, whenever that may be,
whether that was today or whether that ends up being next week, that that's not going to dictate
my performance this year. But I'm also somebody that sits through the volatility, right? Like,
I've been sitting through a lot of chop, you know, watching some positions
trickle out of performance, but still holding. And that's kind of what I like to do is just
reduce exposure into moments like this, especially options exposure. Yeah. I think on my last update
that I posted on Friday, I think my options exposure in the portfolio is down to like 8%,
maybe even lower than that. Now there was a point earlier this year at the beginning of the year
where the options exposure was like, I don't know, 13%, 14%.
And so I like to reduce long options exposure during CHOP.
Obviously, it helps with the theta burn.
It just helps with the volatility of the portfolio.
I also generally like to reduce positions,
but currently I really like everything I own.
So I haven't cut anything.
Um, I haven't cut anything in a while.
I mean, I, I, I go through my portfolio every week and I ask myself, like, do I still want
Do I still want to own this?
And there are some names that from a technical standpoint are not overtly attractive to me,
but I just like the story so much.
Um, yeah, I operate more on instinct now with my management, my portfolio than I did,
you know, seven, eight, nine years ago. I was much more rules based back then, but
I trust my instinct and it served me well. And so, yeah, I'm not, I'm not cutting any
positions, haven't cut any positions, but I have reduced options exposure over the last four weeks,
five weeks, pretty dramatically.
That's been about the only major change that I've made in the portfolio for people that are in the community and have seen it.
And outside of like a handful of ads.
What did that look like for you when you were reducing the options exposure?
Just as simple as just selling the calls, whatever it was, or is it like maybe bouncing them out on the other side?
I know because a lot of times we've had different talks about rolling and you kind of view it as being able to control the shares.
I could have seen a world where maybe you did some sort of like put strategy to hedge it in the short term and then go back to it in the future.
I've talked about this before, but I don't roll because I view it as your back constantly being against price.
And like to me, price and
markets is very relative, like valuations are relative to right, like, if I'm getting into a
position, let's say at $72, and I want to get into the 75 calls, I always buy close to the money. So
it would be something like that, right? I buy generally within 10% OTM. So I call it close to
the money. And that's not really not really a term but that's what
i do i buy like a couple of dollars out of the money slightly out of the money and so let's say
a scenario like that i buy 75 calls okay it works right the stock goes to 80 85 90 whatever
a scenario like that people will be like well i'm gonna roll the calls out to 95 or 100 but then a
market correction comes what happens to those calls? They go to zero, right? Or they get absolutely decimated. They go down 50%, 60%. Conversely, I just hold the 75
calls in that scenario that are now $15 in the money. The stock comes down to, let's say, 82%,
83%. Those calls are still bright green on my screen. And I don't have to stress about the
management. And again, people are going to be like, well, that's a psychological angle. The drawdown on the dollar perspective would still
be relatively the same. Yeah, sure. But that matters to me. Psychological management matters
a lot to me because I know I'm a human. I'm going to wake up in the morning, scroll to the portfolio.
I'm going to be the one managing it. Right. AI is not managing it. Not yet. So at least for me,
I know some people are out there have AI managing their portfolios on their cloud bots or whatever,
I still manage my own portfolio.
And so that matters to me.
You know, the ability to have a position, be in the money.
And also, it's not just about the psychological standpoint.
It's also the idea of taking incremental risk.
Because when you're rolling out and buying further out of the money calls,
you are expecting the stock to continue to move directionally and pay you.
Right. If I've taken the initial risk and the stock moves in my direction, it pays me for that out of the money risk instantly.
Right. In the form of contract premium appreciation.
Right. The premiums will go up by X amount as that stock moves into.
From being out of the money to into the money.
That move is me being paid for the risk I took, or at least that's how I view it.
And once it's in the money and I'm like, okay, I was right directionally about the trade.
I don't need to take more incremental risk.
And that's what rolling is.
Rolling is taking additional incremental risk.
So I'm not against rolling.
I'm not saying like if you're rolling, you're an
idiot. I'm just explaining why I don't do it. Because I don't like taking incremental risk
on new positions where I've already been rewarded for taking that incremental risk.
So that's kind of how I view it. But yeah, when I'm reducing options exposure, I don't
do anything in terms of rolling. I just sell the contracts, just reduce
the number of contracts that I own. And in some cases, I've removed the options exposure entirely
out of positions. When you want to hold something through volatility, it's awfully a lot easier to
hold it with shares than it is with calls, obviously, because they're less volatile.
You know, in a case where shares are down five or six percent, the options might be down 25 or 30 percent.
And so, yeah, that's how I like to play it generally during shop.
Now, if we resume uptrending in this market and take out the highs on spy and the queues,
which is what I'm looking for, we're not that far off of them.
It could happen pretty quickly. Then I will get back to buying calls on names that I want to own.
But for now, sticking to shares, I'm not adding to positions, but I haven't cut anything.
I have enough exposure to the market, right?
Like one reason I never get out of the market entirely.
First of all, I'm not a short-term trader.
It does limit my flexibility in CHOP,
right? Because I can raise some cash, but I can't go 100% cash or 80% cash like some of
some of my other style traders can do or some of the analysts in my community that are more
trading oriented who that could be 80, 90% cash at a given time, that's never really an option for me because it would require selling stocks that I've owned for
years to raise that capital, which I'm not going to do. And so in moments like this and CHOP,
I kind of only have a few options, which is either cut peripheral positions entirely,
which there's nothing I dislike enough to do that with,
or reduce options exposure, pick up a couple of hedges, which is what I ended up doing. And I
didn't pick up enough size on hedges to make a meaningful difference to the downside. But,
you know, I reduced enough options exposure to where the portfolio volatility was reduced enough.
You know, as of today's close, I'm back at 44, 45% year to date. So I'm hovering in that performance area, protecting performance for the most part.
You know, not taking any insane drawdowns.
I haven't had any point this year where the portfolio was red.
I still only have two out of 19 positions that are red on my cost basis.
So we're in a pretty comfortable position.
You know, I can sit through a couple more weeks
of chop if we're going to get it like i can survive it my portfolio isn't going to get
decimated if we have a couple more weeks of chop so yeah brutal couple days of action certainly in
the market especially for a lot of my names i'm sure for a lot of other people's names but
a nice recovery today we'll see if it keeps up and you know i'm sure trump is watching the market
and i'm sure uh his team is watching the market and I'm sure his team is watching the market.
And they saw the reaction to something like this from Trump implying the war was going to be over or that he'll take the straight.
I think that'll probably inform administrative policy. Right.
where the markets responded very, very excitedly
when he was striking new tariffs deals
and reducing tariffs from 35% to 10%.
And then he kept doing it with more countries.
Like, I can't remember who the first one was,
but right after that, it was South Korea,
then the European Union, then China deal.
And the markets just really, really liked that.
And it just kept us going um
now he sees the market reaction to his commentary this afternoon i'm pretty sure he's going to be
attentive to that i mean the idea that trump isn't watching the markets is obviously that's silly he
he clearly is um based on the tariff stuff and based on this stuff he clearly is watching the
markets so he cares about that.
He wants the markets to be hot going into the midterms.
I'm sure that's the one thing the Republicans can lean on in this midterms.
Is the market doing well?
So, you know, his Fed chair is around the corner now.
We're in, you know, we're almost in mid-March now.
New Fed chair will be here in a month and a half.
Powell's policy is pretty irrelevant at this juncture, right?
Powell's kind of de facto out of the chair, even though he's not yet.
And so we'll start paying attention to what Warsh does in about a month, month and a half.
And if he feels there's room to cut rates, I think the markets will be pretty receptive to that.
So, because rate cuts are now definitely needed
after the last jobs report.
I think that without a question,
most people would tell you that.
So, yeah, nice comments from Trump,
We got pretty close to the 200-day intraday.
Close enough, I'd say, to constitute a test.
I think it's pretty good action.
It is kind of funny the way you said that stock talk i don't know how much you heard of me but
i i said some really similar things especially on the structure side of stuff with uh i would
rather see attach it during the new york session during rth as some people call it regular trading
hours or whatever uh but the futures coming right off of that area last night was a very interesting thing uh when you put it into
the bigger the bigger picture of stuff so but yeah i basically said the same thing that you
kind of mentioned there yeah i mean i always prefer everything to happen in a real session
like real training hours then then overnight or after hours i mean it's part of the reason why
like i never react to an earnings report or um really anything in the after hours. I mean, it's part of the reason why like I never react to an earnings report or, um, really anything in the after hour session. Like I, me buying anything in after hours
or overnight session is very, very rare. Um, I, I pretty much anytime I'm allocating any serious
amount of capital I do during the regular session. And when I'm watching technical levels, I want to see them be respected in the regular session,
So, yeah, that's kind of my point of view.
I saw a fast stock breaking news headline,
Joby to begin U.S. operations in 2026
under White House Air Taxi Program.
That headline came out in the last couple-ish minutes or so.
That stock was moving higher in the after-hours trading.
That stock talk was saying there, you might want to wait for the actual intraday, but
Doesn't make a lot of sense what stock talk was saying there, though.
It should be an interesting couple weeks here we
have coming up i feel like a lot of times we've had more questions than than answers a lot of
times we get to the points where we should be having answers and i don't think today was uh
was an answer day it wasn't kind of advertised like it was going to be but it does feel like
we made a little progress getting closer to some of the stuff. But again, I said this earlier, I'm waiting for the taco
of the taco. I am waiting for the opposite side of this one. Some reason this headline
was misunderstood or something like that. It's interesting. It came from a CBS person
as well. I would have maybe thought it would have been like a different agency is what we could say he's been bouncing around the different media outlets than talking similar
comments over the last couple days not similar not similar to whatever a
headline dump we got an hour or so ago but we are expecting him at 530 Eastern to talk.
He has tended to be late most, I guess, most of the time.
At least the last two presidents have been late pretty consistently.
So I'd imagine it's going to be a 6, 6.15 start time on that one.
We got this conversation going until at least 5.30 p.m. Eastern here.
to bring you right up until uh president trump starts to speak so uh so yeah i also imagine
it'll probably be somewhat of a reiteration of the headlines that already dropped the sanctions on Russian oil.
The war ending sooner than expected.
And what was the other one?
Someone put out a mean, a straight of America.
You guys heard that stock market news.
Send your DMs and dirty messages.
Yeah, if Apple Maps doesn't do it,
they're going to be banned.
You didn't mention Apple delaying their smart home devices.
Does anyone care about the Apple
display or something like that they were
talking about? I feel like the reason it's getting delayed is because
Apple doesn't even care about it.
Remember last year? They can't do anything until
they figure out an AI. Hard to imagine Apple
cares about anything, yeah.
Remember this headline last year on Apple
with this desktop arm or something?
Which maybe that's what this was?
Siri to act like Claudebot and just control my computer
for me with really good need siri to be like brock or something we don't have to go to clodbot
just like take one step forward would anyone see the co-pilot co-work release i did i did
i didn't think too deep into it i don't know if there's any thoughts on it. That's a big deal.
I mean, how many users does Copilot have?
In Microsoft 365. How many balls do they have?
Millions, millions, and millions, and millions
that can now operate their computers seamlessly
with a Microsoft integrated product.
They don't need to buy a Mac mini
or do any weird off-site Claude bot stuff
they just download CoPilot co-work can do tasks completely autonomously from any
Microsoft program from any a ILM program it can be integrated into your desktop
computer it's a pretty sophisticated looking product yeah it's like
Microsoft version of Claude andos and now it's going to be integrated seamlessly to anybody
15 million paid co-pilot seats
430 million to 450 million
which is where they were adding it into
yeah that's a lot of people like half a billion people um yeah that's gonna be
the only downside with that is you're stuck in microsoft co-pilot you said the only downside
is what is you're in microsoft environment yeah yeah i mean that sucks but it's it's a very very
universally used product which is why i think it's significant. Because a lot of these AI use cases these days, like, I was at a friend's birthday party this weekend. And there were some like, successful, successful older business people there that I was talking to about Claude Bod and all these things that have happened around agentic AI. And I think I've referenced him before, but one of my buddies who owns a law
firm was there and he was like laughing about it. Last year, they fired a bunch of paralegals
and have been using an LLM integrator since then. And now they've graduated to these agentic tools
and they're using those. And he was laughing about it. Like, dude, so many people in the
industry don't even know these products exist.
And if they do, they don't know how to implement them. And one of the big ways to, you know, triumph over that concern for the AI industry is to just find integrators, right?
So, yeah, you can make the argument that these organizations aren't needed, but they serve as huge points of distributive access.
Like if you have 450 million users on a product and you just seamlessly integrate AI into it, sure, maybe you could have used the LLMs on your own to build a similar agentic product if you're tech savvy or if you're somebody that's on the cutting edge of these things individually. But if you're not, which is the vast majority of everyday people,
even everyday CEOs and workers at these companies who are not familiar with how to integrate these
things, and Microsoft does it for you, that's a big bonus to distribution.
And so when you put it in front of people, and now somebody who's using Copilot every day can just be like, oh, wait, I can just tell my Copilot what to do with my computer.
It can access my emails through the Microsoft email input. It can access my Excel and Word and PowerPoint through the integrations with Microsoft, it can access my text messages, my Slack messages, it can access everything
seamlessly and can be instructed what to do. That makes it more compelling and more people
will use it as a consequence of that. And as a consequence of that, more people will probably
be fired. So I agree. I think the biggest sticking points of AI is adoption and education and just being aware how to use it and when to use it.
So if companies like Microsoft are doing that, I think that's honestly a huge, huge benefit for them as well as Copilot and just any other major LLM.
Just wanted to mention real fast, Trump is speaking.
He's delivering remarks at the Republican Members Issues Conference right now live.
Yeah, he's live right now.
We also got a wolf speed um offering interesting
classic wlf w o l f not to be confused with wolf financial yeah we need them to go bankrupt so we
can get that ticker trump saying we took a little excursion. I think you'll see it going to be a short-term excursion.
Evan, do you want to play it or no?
I see Wall Street Engine, who is normally down below.
I don't see him down there right now.
This is just at a uh just at a conference like i got he's not like gonna take q a or anything here
our country is stronger and our country is uh doing really well i mean at a level that nobody
thought we took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil. And I think you'll see it's going to be a short-term excursion.
How good is our military, right?
So that was that headline there.
This is not the same headline as before, but it's not a taco of the taco.
It seems like he's saying a similar thing there.
We might be in the second half of this play here.
There were a lot of geopolitical experts just commenting over the weekend.
geopolitical experts just commenting over the weekend.
Nothing, no official news, but I read a lot of little articles and sub stacks over the
weekend just from political commenters and geopolitical commenters.
One of the interesting themes that I saw amongst the commentary was this idea that the United
States can step away from this conflict much more easily than Israel can because, you know, yeah, we have bases
in the region, but we can treat this more tactically than Israel can. And so there is a
scenario where the United States could say our objectives have been complete from the standpoint
of U.S. interests. We are stepping away. And then from there, it becomes a lot like the 12-day
war or whatever we called it. When Israel, when Israel and the United States first struck the facilities at Fordow and others.
And then we just allow Israeli air power to continue tactical strikes as they so choose. out of the straight, out of the region, and, you know, not give up, but say tactically mission
accomplished or whatever, and dip. That's an interesting thought. And that's something that
a lot of these geopolitical guys were talking about over the weekend, like, look, if he wants
to save face before the midterms and treat this as sort of a tactical operation that was fulfilled,
then that'd be pretty simple off ramp for him if
he wanted to take it. And his tweets over the weekend where, you know, he was saying, or his
truths over the weekend where he was saying, look, the goal here is to disable Iranian nuclear
infrastructure. That's a pretty subjective benchmark, right?
That allegedly already happened six months ago.
Yeah, exactly. Like, that's an easy thing.
Not easy thing. But that's a thing where the United States could say, yeah, look, we hit the targets we wanted to hit. The stuff we wanted to destroy is destroyed. We're done. If Israel wants
to continue their strategic bombing campaign, we'll provide them munition support to do so.
I mean, I'm speculating here. This has not been said, obviously, but I'm just, you know,
speculating on what could be said as an off ramp. I don't know, because there's some people over
the weekend that were saying, like, there's no off ramp to this. I don't know if I agree with
that. There's always an off ramp. I mean, if you want to use it, the question is, is how does that reflect on your you know
on your power in the region?
leaving something like this in
between when it's not necessarily done
worse thing filling that void.
I have no idea anything on
nukes. I'm not even going to say anything there, but
whether they were or were not before, if you leave
the job half done, I think they would be more likely to go and do it after as
opposed to doing it. So I do wonder if I'm not, there is always an off ramp, but I do wonder if
the situation, a job half done ends up leaving into a worse situation. Yeah, it could. It could.
I mean, this has been a volatile region for a long time. And so I don't want to pretend that like it's there's any easy solutions. But the market clearly liked the comments today. And I think it would be really difficult to imagine that he ignores that, you know, I think it would be difficult to imagine that he says, OK, the market loved me talking about an off-ramp, but we're not going to take one.
It seems hard for me to believe that Trump's going to take that perspective, but we'll see.
A lot of the success in his eyes, for better or for worse, are coming from the stock market's viewpoint and
you know i will say the fact that the market hasn't totally tanked you know there are some
stocks not at all yeah we're still 45 from all-time highs it has been a difficult market
it definitely is a difficult chop market i say the the trends for younger words the vibes are more
chopped to slightly down maybe a little bit,
but you've seen some of these names under the cover get hit.
but the market as a whole is holding up pretty strong,
the theme that has been driving us,
the AI data center has not weakened,
but people were scared on an or were at Oracle and everything like that.
I think the point I'm making here is that wasn't necessarily the driver over the last couple
weeks of the the market being able to hold in here so i don't know it's it's definitely
it's hard to paint this as as panic uh your favorite indicator i am being sarcastic one
that you don't like uh the fear and greed index dropped down into extreme fear, which I know
actually do look at that thing. It's a heavy momentum
interesting to see it that low, just
because people expect him to just
like what happened earlier, like Russia, Ukraine, Iran,
like everything seems bad.
And then he just comes out and he's like, oh, fix this, did that.
Yeah, we'll see kind of what Stock Talk was talking about there.
If he wants to go in and call a victory and say the mission was done and pull out the off-ramp is probably there
so we'll see i mean this was the the market i i don't think stock talks far off here as someone
who measures success based off of the stock market and i'm sure this was a feeler and
there was an answer i mean the market liked it we'll see if he follows through on that
like we've been talking about here follow through with an important thing tomorrow should be a very
interesting day in the stock market we were already having a little bit of a reversal before
that stock talk did you have any thoughts on the market move before that last um that last spike up
there because we did go from a red open down 1-2% on a lot of these indexes.
Overnight was closer to that.
By the time we opened, maybe we were a little higher.
And then we had fought back to basically slightly green on the day.
Now, it might have been shaping up for kind of what last Monday looked like.
And then we know how last Tuesday went.
So this might have changed the tone a little bit.
But did you have any thoughts on the market before that headline?
Kind of fighting back from down a couple percentage points into a green day is that
kind of just what the theme of the market has been you mean like before today's headline like
this morning well honestly even at like three o'clock p.m eastern before we got this last
headline here the market had gone from red to upgrade to basically yeah yeah it had started
sell it. There was some sellers exhaustion clearly on individual names. I mean, even this morning,
I saw some individual names very early. Um, you know, first 30 minutes of the open flip green,
um, especially a handful of names with individual catalysts were receptive to their catalyst this
morning. So that's a good thing to see just from a micro standpoint.
You could, again, we talked about the 200-day test on the queues overnight.
Even though I prefer an intranet test always,
that does still technically count.
So you can attribute a little bit of the relief bounce to that as well.
But even with that reversal intranet prior to the headline and even after the headline, you're still below the major moving averages
on both major indexes. And so you're not out of the woods. So yeah, I was looking at the market
intraday and saw the intraday reversal, saw some names come off the lows. There were like six or
seven names in my portfolio that were green prior to that headline.
And so that was an incrementally positive thing to see.
But we still need more upside action.
You need to see bulls stage like a multi-day rally that does not get interrupted by an indiscriminate sell, which they've been unable to do for the last three weeks.
Pretty much every intraday rally has been stuffed the following session or stuffed into the close.
And so there just hasn't been a lot of room for Bulls to build momentum.
And we need to see that before I think you can say it's all clear from a CHOP standpoint.
So, yeah. And we also, I think, need to see the situation
in the straight actually resolved and not just verbally resolved to where Trump says, you know,
it's a tactical operation, we're going to consider taking over the straight and or,
you know, making this a short term operation. All these comments are nice, but they don't solve the
problem. So I think the problem still has to be solved with respect to the straight as well.
So, yeah, it was nice to see the recovery. Yes, I was watching it.
I think there's certainly some sellers exhaustion, especially on individual names.
And that's all good. But you need to see momentum to the upside from Bulls.
You need to see a multi-day rally.
And look, a three-day rally could fully repair the indexes
from a technical standpoint.
You need like two or three days to the upside from Bulls,
and you'll be looking at much different index structure
than you were looking at just last week.
So, yeah, that's what you'd like to see.
You'd like to see a green week to start fixing things and maybe potentially resume an uptrend.
But more importantly than that, we need to take out the highs. There's been five or six attempts
at the highs on both major indexes that have been pretty brutally rejected. We need to see a character
change there where you just peel through the all-time highs on spying the cues. That will
take away a lot of technical concern. And keep in mind, I'm speaking about this purely from a
technical standpoint, not from like a market regime standpoint or like what's going to be
working in that climate, what's not going to be working. I'm not really commenting on that. I'm
saying from the overall market standpoint, you'd like to see the indexes repair themselves
structurally, the major indexes, in my view, spying the QQQ.
It's good to see a bounce.
Good to see some seller's exhaustion.
Good to see that 200-day test overnight.
I still don't think we're in the clear, not until you get spied back over that 100-day test overnight. I still don't think we're in the clear, not until you get spied back
over that 100-day, back over that 50-day. You get the cues back into form. We're not there yet,
but within three days, we could be. So, you know, just pay attention, I think, to the index action.
I'm not adding to any individual names here. I have plenty of exposure. I'm not cutting individual
names here because I like everything I own but I am being very very attentive
to index action I would say I've probably watched spy in the queues intraday a
lot more in the last two or three weeks that I have in the last five or six
months probably so that's where most of my attention and focus is is the
structure on the major indexes and that's probably most of my attention and focus is, is the structure on the major indexes.
And that's probably where my focus will be until we fix things.
Shout out to Mr. Stock Talk.
We are live every single Monday through Thursday, 3 to 5 p.m. Eastern at least.
We've been doing this for three to four years now.
Stock Talk's on here pretty much every single day of great insights. We've been doing this for three to four years now. Stock
Talk's on here pretty much every single day, giving these insights. So I appreciate everyone
for coming in, hanging out with us. We have another conversation coming up here. I'm going
to shift us into that direction, but obviously a crazy market going on right now. You should make
sure you are following all of the speakers as you guys are listening to the conversations and you
enjoy what's happening, everything like that. that obviously make sure you're following the host and the other stuff that we have going on
but uh but yeah shout out to stock talk fast stock market news stock sniper ryan and more
i do see we have two people joining us up here isaac and travis i do want to intro us into here
a little bit we are going to be talking about a reggae raise that they are doing.
We are working with them.
Part of the space is to learn more, ask questions, find more about the raise.
Our goal is never to have you guys to go out and buy stuff.
We want to be as upfront as we can with disclosures.
We're working with the team. Our goal is to put interesting stuff on your opportunity,
interesting opportunities onto your radar.
If it's interesting for you, great.
If it's not, hopefully you guys learned something from doing some research into it. So we have Travis and
Isaac up here from the full pack team, from the get out to vote team. And I am excited to hear
more a little bit about what they have. This is the first time we are doing a space from them. So
this is my learning experience as well. So I'm excited to ask some questions. I don't know where
we want to go first, but Travis Isaac,
I appreciate you doing this up here.
Yeah, definitely happy to be here.
Yeah, thank you for joining in.
So I do have the tweet pinned up in the nest above right now,
and it has the link over to your website.
Can you guys just introduce yourself?
Yeah, what do you guys do?
Yeah, so I can start. So my name is Travis. I'm the founder and CEO of FullPack. It started as a
political robocall company. Isaac and I started it back in 2012, when we were both still in high
school before I could even vote. We were working on political campaigns and we saw how much they were spending on robocalls. So we started a company being two young tech guys
and offered those robocalls to our clients for super cheap. We realized the business opportunity
there and within a few months flipped it completely on its head and began offering services at scale
to clients in all 50 states. I bought out Isaac in 2016. He went on to start a publicly traded company.
He had many years in that.
I'll let him dive into that whenever he speaks.
And I've been running RoboScent as a one-man shop
since 2016 when I bought him out.
So he rejoined last June.
We started talking about, you know,
kind of growing RoboScent to the next stage using AI and just all the opportunities that are available in this space because of the kind of the small scale of it with not having any other public vehicles in the space.
of 2025. And we very quickly did a seed round. We've created a caliber team of players,
and our internal staff and team that are all fantastic and just really phenomenal what they
do. And we've grown so quickly. And we now also have a reg A qualified offering by the SEC
that went live in December. So yeah, I'm excited to talk to you today.
This is my first Twitter spaces.
So really excited to be here and I'll let Isaac take room there.
Yeah. So when you think of a stock.
Oh, I hear, I hear Isaac speaking in like your background or something,
but shout out to you, Travis. I appreciate that.
I'm excited to talk more. Isaac,
I'd love to hear a little bit more about your background as well.
So when you think of a stock to play cryptocurrencies- It's a little, for the record, it's a little far from your voice.
Maybe you can bring the phone closer.
When you think of a stock to play cryptocurrencies, you think of coin.
When you think of a stock to play ride sharing, you think of Uber.
When you think of a stock to play the growth of political spending
in the United States, there currently isn't one. And that's the gap that we aim to fill.
We aim to be the stock that when leading into the midterm elections this fall, when people turn on
the TV, see these political ads, when they go to the mailbox, have a political draft mail piece,
when they get a text on their phone from a politician. We want people, you don't have to like politics. And, you know, we don't see
red or blue, we see green. At least now you can have an instrument that you can make money.
So unlike most reggae's, we are committed to getting this GOTV liquid trading as quickly as possible.
I've been the CFO of two NASDAQ traded companies before, raised over $200 million through the sale of equity and equity instruments. I learned how to mess up a cap table. And that is why GOTV has a common only cap
table. No warrants, no prefs, no converts, no options. It's a common only cap table. And we
are committed to keeping this a clean deal that everyone can understand. Neither Travis or I went
to college. You all are probably more sophisticated in the markets than we are.
And we like to learn from you all.
And, you know, we're not some MBA trying to pitch you on some far-fetched thing.
We're literally pitching you on a company that we've been running for 12 years.
Well, you know, I took a little hiatus to be there.
But, yeah, a real company, real business that's been running a cashflow
positive, uh, since inception, uh, except for last year with the capital expenses, of course,
but, uh, yeah, no, we've been doing this a long time and it's, it's really exciting for us to be
able to bring this opportunity and do it with GOTV. We kind of have this, this, this full package.
Um, GOTV is one of the most, uh, iconic, uh iconic phrases in politics. It's been around since early America.
And, you know, it's part of every winning campaign strategy.
Get out the vote, the final strategy to get voters to the polls and get your candidate
It's all over all of our industry, over our competitors' websites and their game plans
and their strategies and everything.
We got the website last summer.
No one had thought to buy it.
And then we also got GOTV reserved from the NASDAQ within 72 hours.
It's just kind of indicative that no one's kind of moved in this space yet.
We really expect GOTV full pack to be the vehicle
and the first opportunity for retail investors
to be able to participate in the ever-growing political industry.
So what do you guys do differently than some of the other people, the traditional ways
that people have gotten people to go out and vote?
Yeah, so we offer a fully nonpartisan platform.
That is the infrastructure technology play that provides
communication technology that simplifies voter engagement for political campaigns, elected
officials, nonprofits, city governments. So we have infrastructure level technology that
we offer in the form of texting right now, which through RoboSend has been our bread
and butter. And through this raise in the capital, offering, I mean, our capital raise, expanding our service offerings with AI
for voter data engagement, making it easier for campaigns to do their voter contact and their
outreach. So there's a lot of things on the playbook of what we want to do next.
And everything's kind of in motion right now.
And we're kind of moving at light speed, too, especially because of the priority of the 2026 midterm elections and the opportunity that it presents.
But, of course, this company looking forward to 2028 as well and the opportunity with a wide open presidential year.
So we're very good at what we do. The median age of our team is 32.
That's why people come to us.
We have a strong reputation in doing that.
Actually, in early December,
Invesco QQQ failed to reach quorum
at their shareholder meeting.
So they reached out to us.
They had to adjourn. We were brought in.
They were actually our largest client last year. And I think that speaks to our reputation and
stature in getting things done and delivering a result. Police report that they did reach quorum at their reconvened, I think, December 18th or 19th meeting.
We also did DWAC, Trump Media merger.
Did you guys see the BM&R one as well?
Was Bitmine and BM&R you guys as well?
Travis has the full list.
We've worked with over 200 Pupcos.
Yeah, doing not just like mergers and stuff,
but also just like any proxy shareholder.
No, yeah, it was a proxy share thing.
It was in the last couple months.
and I believe it was through you guys.
And it did get me to go out and vote. So it did go into work, and I was getting some of messages and I believe it was through you guys and I did get me to go out and vote.
So it did go into work and I was getting some similar messages from them.
So for anyone who doesn't know, we're talking a lot here about the political side of it,
but clearly there are some other use cases.
One that I'm sure a lot of you guys have dealt with.
If anyone owns QQQ here and you got text messages, I believe I got some, some letters as well.
I don't know if those were specifically everything on there. We don't handle mailing yet.
I definitely got a couple texts in there. It's funny that when we were talking about this,
I was like, okay, wow, I have seen this actually work and go into use and I did vote because of it.
Yeah, and it does work a lot. This is just for, on the PubCo side of it and doing the
shareholder voting, it's really kind of a cool scalable thing that we do. But also
what we can offer is whenever a client comes to us, it doesn't really matter where they're at.
They could only need 1% of what we offer or 100%. You know, we are fractional kind of fill in the
gaps and do it in a way that we don't require these huge upfront commitments or retainers or monthly contracts.
It's very accessible and it democratizes voting access to the communication infrastructure level.
And so that's what we're trying to do with GOTV and make it, you know, that's part of why it's a common only deal and making it accessible through this, you know, crowdfunded Reg A offering and then straight to the NASDAQ so we can provide liquidity uh you know as quickly as possible um uh you know through the strategy yeah isaac i'd love to hear like what what exactly
does a reggae mean um and i'm curious of why you guys are going down this platform while we're
talking here on the space and all that stuff why maybe trying to activate with retail was something
that was interesting for you here and then just in in general, what the reg A is, is people are doing their research into it or what a reg A actually means.
So I've raised money through investment banks before, and they always want a warrant,
and there's gnarly terms in the warrant, and it's always dilutive, destructive, painful to the
shareholders. We wanted to do a common only deal. And reg A is one of the only mechanisms in which you can generally solicit investment from the public in your company.
Yeah, no, that is very interesting, Isaac.
What does the general competitive landscape look in this market?
Are there a lot of people? Listen, politics are everything. So I imagine there's people doing stuff in this area, but I don't know if they would be doing some similar stuff on the tech infrastructure side, on texting, other stuff like that. What does the general landscape look like?
Well, so, I mean, I'm sure you've gotten so many pitches or have heard so many pitches on AI and on crypto.
Really, there's not many that are happening on the political side of it at all.
So we believe that we're offering one of the first opportunities here to even participate in this industry through the public market opportunity.
But as far as on the product side, it's kind of interesting.
In the industry, it's kind of a small industry, a lot of who you know. And so the technology that is offered is very typically resold multiple times or has huge inflated margins on it because the donors and the ones managing the money aren't the same people that are executing on the end.
So the way that we're doing it differently, by having this backing from Wall Street, we can create a better product at a lower cost.
And then our goal is to, which is what we're doing right now and have been doing for many years, is growing our partner network so that we can create tools and provide assistance to
either political consulting firms or individuals that need outreach, that manage a bunch of
campaigns year end after year out, and providing the information and the technology they need to
manage all that simply, and then giving them a commission or lowest rates on top of that
so that we can help create this foundational level for this industry
that provides automatic commissions for the partners that are utilizing the technology.
And then also providing it nonpartisan,
because it happens so much in this industry where you have these firms that are,
as soon as they get a competitive advantage,
they make their technology nonpartisan or completely partisan, rather,
so that you can't access that
on the other side and and we don't want to do that we i mean we're going to be traded on the sec
or or traded publicly so have strict um disclosure because of the sec which just makes all of our
disclosure requirements so much higher so we want to have complete transparency in everything that
we're doing and we believe that you know you know, adding that into the election space and
political spending actually is going to provide more visibility and create an opportunity for
campaigns of all sizes to be able to use this technology in a way that allows them to really
connect personally and directly with their voters without breaking the bank, you know?
Yeah, no, that makes sense.
Isaac, do you have any thoughts on that?
Well, my main thought is our beautiful lockup leakout agreement,
which is valid all the way through the midterm elections.
All shares outstanding prior to the reg A
are subject to a lockup agreement if it's below $6 a share and a leak out up to 4% of weekly volume if it somehow in the best case scenario reaches 25.
So the reg A is at $5 a share.
So when this stock starts trading, we believe that the entire float is going to be
shares purchased at $5 a share in cash. So again, share structure is very important in these things.
It often makes or breaks an IPO. And we feel we have one of the best
tables cap structures on the market or soon to be on the market.
Okay. So very interesting. So what you're saying is, is all the locked up share, all the enables cap structures on the market or soon to be on the market.
Okay. So very interesting. So what you're saying is, is all the, the locked up share, all the insider shares, we can call it all.
I'll figure guys your shares and any other investors in there,
they're not going to be able to sell below $5.
I'm sure maybe there is some time framework goes in there.
Through the midterms. Through the midterms. Okay. Perfect.
And then the low six of all, and then it's like a very small week out.
Between four and 10, I think it's 1% of weekly volume,
And keep in mind, Travis owns 5% of the shares.
I think he's working on a subscription to the Reg A now.
I mean, it's not trading.
Every single employee of the company has invested.
Our friends and family are a lot of the shareholders.
And I think that speaks volumes.
We're not some CEOs who come on here and are just earning a paycheck trying to sell the stock down.
No, we want this to work.
We want this to create significant value for our
friends and family. And it's an incredible opportunity. Yeah. And I'm glad you said that,
Isaac, because I forget sometimes we've been doing this for like eight months now since June of last
year. And again, I was just like a one man shop from 2016 until then. And it's easy to forget that
we are, you know, talking to a huge audience now
and are trying to advertise, you know, full pack and what we offer to a much, you know, wider pool
that don't know us. And Isaac's exactly right. We're not like some corporate America guys. We're
just, I mean, I dropped out of community college after four days to pursue
RoboSend way back in 2012. I mean, we found this thing when we were in high school. We've got an
amazing track record with client success stories since then. And we have this amazing team that we
joke has come together completely organically because of, I mean, we had Dan Flowers, our CTO.
He was just a friend and a mentor. I was meeting with him at lunch in June and telling him what
Isaac and I were working on. And, you know, he, in that conversation, decided to quit his job
where he was the CEO of another company to come work for us. And then Hector Garcia, our chief
revenue officer, an accomplished sales guy
who's been around for a long time and has a lot of experience. He called me to just congratulate
me on my job change on LinkedIn. I'd met him once at a conference in Miami or in Florida
in April, I think, of 2025. One phone call on Thursday, that following Monday, him and two
other guys were starting full-time as our sales team. And that's just happened so many times
across the board at Fullpack. And that's why everyone's so excited. And it's like so infectious,
just the energy and like the dopamine and working with these candidates running for office,
it's exciting. And everyone can feel
the opportunity here and is working to grow it just because, like Isaac said, they have skin in
the game as well. And they're just enjoying the experience and know that we have something special
here. So the last industry report that came out said that the midterm elections are tracking more
like a presidential election.
And so I called the analyst and I, you know, went to get some more color.
And I was like, so how's 2028 looking?
And they're afraid to put out a number because these are on Wall Street people.
They're like, well, we want to be accurate with our number.
we're going to have to increase it. I'm like, good, put it out and then increase it. Like,
And if we put out a number now, you know, we're going to have to increase it. I'm like, good, put it out and then increase it.
come on now. So the point being that all of the catalysts, like the rate of growth is increasing
right now. And that's being driven by this perpetual redistricting. So you now have these
states that are just redrawing the congressional lines whenever they want. So that's surging the
spending gubernatorial and state legislature elections. You have poly market and all these prediction markets. So now
you have thousands, tens of thousands of people, hundreds of, perhaps, I have no idea, literally
betting on the outcome of, not betting, predicting the outcome of these elections. So it's not just,
you know, your parties, your special interest groups,
and the candidates that have skinned the game.
It's literally tens of thousands of people have monetary interest.
And then 2028, you don't have an incumbent president on the ballot.
You have like 30 people waiting for president on both sides of the aisle.
So all of these factors are surging the spending.
Elon Musk just said he's all in on the midterms.
So you have billionaires on both sides of the aisle
and just trying to outspend each other
to effectuate what they want.
And, you know, Americans are more cynical than you think.
You know, when we were first discussing this back in June,
people were like, well, people hate politics.
You know, like who's going to want to invest in this?
Like, cigarettes were one of the best investments.
You know, Coca-Cola, Warren Buffett.
Like, it gave everyone diabetes.
So you don't have to like politics to know that there's a shit ton of money.
And look at the chart. Citizens United
is the inflection board. And that's not going anywhere. Actually, there's, in Citizens United,
the Supreme Court decided that campaign donations are free speech. And an extension of that,
J.D. Vance filed while he was in the Senate, which is the Supreme Court's already heard
arguments. It's going to be, the decision is going to be announced at the end of the term,
probably late June. And it's probably going to remove some of the last restrictions on
campaign finance donations, whatever ones are left. And, you know, you can read the article.
I think we shared it on our socials, but it says, you know, there's going to be a flood of money pouring into politics.
And I'm like, well, there's going to be a flood of money.
So, I mean, I guess it's, you know, the great thing.
And a rising tide lifts all boats.
And we're the biggest boat.
Again, tweet pinned up in the nest above
has a bunch more information to what we were talking about here.
The goal of this conversation,
obviously they're doing the reggae.
I want you guys to learn about it more.
I just want to hear more what's happening.
And we want to introduce it to you guys.
Our goal is to just put interesting stuff on your radar,
interesting opportunities.
Hopefully you guys can come in and ask questions as well.
If you have any questions that you guys want to ask the team,
put it down in the bottom right of your screen, the purple 25.
Next time we have them on, I will make sure to ask your question.
I want the tough questions.
I want all the questions in the year.
Real people are coming in and don't have stuff to hide.
And I know they want to come in and share all the thoughts here.
I do know that Ryan, you might have a question here.
If I could throw it over to you.
Yeah, Travis Isaac is super exciting to hear about this.
And I know as we go on with you guys, we'll get to dive deeper and deeper into it.
I was just curious what levels, because I was reading through the CEO note that I saw here on the website.
I just went in that link, started clicking around and reading some information
as we were getting ready for the space.
And I saw the crazy amount of spend.
And so I was kind of curious, is it cyclical?
And then what layers are you guys,
I mean, is this going from state elections
all the way down to local?
Are you guys kind of in the local election stuff as well?
County, what levels are you kind of seeing the most activity at?
That's kind of where I was curious about.
So we work with, I mean, basically every level of government.
So we can help candidates running for office,
whether they're running for school board, city council,
you know, local commissioner, sheriff.
It doesn't really matter.
They can go with the state delegate or state house representative. And then, of course, we do things in the statewide level. So
gubernatorial, attorney general, lieutenant governor. We do federal offices, of course,
congressional, U.S. Senate, presidential. We've done a couple things for select states.
Presidential, we've done a couple things for select states.
We do super PACs, ballot initiatives.
It really, anything that's a political, 501C4, C3, or nonprofit, we don't do anything that's like commercial marketing.
We do the proxy shareholder texting for publicly traded companies.
We believe that's getting out the vote and democracy and public forum.
But really, nothing within the commercial space.
We're in the forever cycle now.
And the average surge as you get close to an election day.
So now they're spending earlier and earlier and earlier, which is smoothing out the spin.
And Travis, you want to touch on Geo...
Our second acquisition, actually, and we, again, we started like seven, eight months
ago, and we've already made two acquisitions.
Our second one was Strategic Assets of GovText, which is a franking platform.
So we launched GOVT.com, the abbreviation for government.com,
which has launched our government franking outreach program.
So essentially, after you become an elected official,
after your election, which we had a 77% win rate in 2025,
a lot of elected offices have public taxpayer franking budgets that they
can utilize for constituent outreach. So through GOVT.com, we help educate the candidates or these
newly elected officials on how to utilize those funds and how to best utilize those funds so that
they can communicate and so that they can maintain name ID. And like Isaac said, it is a forever cycle, especially in Congress when it's
every two years. You're constantly running. You constantly need your name to be in front of
voters in the news so that whenever the election does come around, it makes it that much easier
to get running. But a lot of our business isn't even tied to an election calendar.
I was just saying, think of it like Amazon.
So there's constant activity because there's always an election center.
And we have these proxies and we have GOVT.
And then, you know, on Amazon Prime Days, it just, you know, there's a little spike.
And that's like the primaries we're going through right now and the November elections.
we're going through right now and the November elections.
There were Texas, Arkansas, and North Carolina, I think,
where last week, today is Georgia, tomorrow is Georgia,
and like a few other states.
There's always an election or recall or special election
We also, when something's up in front of the Senate,
we also help people contact their elected officials.
That's super interesting, especially thinking about, like, I remember the last time that I was
in the voting booth and I saw, like, how many different elections are going on. There's so
many, especially at the state level that I saw. That's kind of mind-blowing to think about the
opportunity there. And you mentioned those acquisitions. One of the other things that
really caught my eye was the AI-powered content generation platform that you guys got back in
October, reading a little bit about that. So I'm sure maybe in another conversation, we can dive
into that piece a little bit deeper. But anytime in today's age, obviously, people think about AI,
they think about how are you leveraging it and see that you guys are kind of already on the forefront of that was exciting as well. So I appreciate you guys coming on and giving me the chance to ask this question. I'll turn it back over to Evan here. I don't know if he had any other thoughts or anything and looking forward to having you guys back on soon.
yeah appreciate it that was awesome
now awesome again tweets pinned up in the nest above
has more information we're going to have you guys on
I would love to ask you guys
is there anything as people are doing their research
into the stuff that you want to know maybe questions
that you guys were excited to talk about here
maybe questions that you guys were worried I would
ask you about I'm curious as we're kind of heading in
towards the end here and as people are doing
their research of course please come in
and give us thoughts questions we would love to ask
They're trying to do this out in the open.
So any thoughts, feedback, anything like that would be super helpful.
But as people are looking into this, Travis, maybe I'll come over to you first.
Do you just have thoughts on stuff that they should be making sure that they're not missing
No, I mean, I'm just glad to have people ask questions and get involved. I've been asking
people all summer long last year and through the winter, of course, like to try to poke holes in
this thing, like people much smarter than me, to try to figure out like what the opportunity is
here and like how we're the first to figure this out and like have the full package with the GOTV
brand, which is just like, it's not like even having to create
the identity like Coin did for crypto or Uber did for ride sharing. It's like already exists.
Like GOTV is already used industry wide. Like I can't emphasize that enough. And so like the fact
that we already have that in both the website and ticker is kind of just like the full package.
But yeah, I love being challenged on this kind of
stuff on this specifically to figure out like what we're missing, if we're missing anything. But
I ask that question a lot and no one's been able to give me a good answer except for
that they're excited to invest and participate. So yeah, really excited to be doing this again
in the future. Very nice, Travis.
Anything you would say, Isaac?
Anything people are doing they're researching
as they're doing their website?
Anything they should keep in mind?
Maybe a part of the website
as the first place to start?
Well, we're commonly cap structure,
which I think sets us apart
of these publicly traded companies
You're getting a little far from the mic, I apologize. traded companies that like promote it. And then Abbotsie Lab.
You're getting a little far from the mic.
I can't really hear anymore.
I would say Abbotsie Lab is one of the fastest growing AI platforms in politics.
It's already paid for itself in cash,
which kind of speaks to how we structure the deal
and that there aren't any other buyers.
So it's a common-only cap structure,
which I think sets us apart.
We'd appreciate your consideration.
Yeah, on Advocacy Lab too, just real quick,
I've been looking for an idea
for a monthly subscription product
that I can offer for a couple of years now,
something high quality that, you know,
bring value to my customers that I was serving.
And this one is literally perfect.
The synergy that it has with RoboScent,
the ability to make these, you know,
super instant, essentially AI-powered graphics
that you can use in texting or digital fundraising.
And they're signing up in droves
and converting those leads into full-back customers, providing not just these graphics for them on a subscription basis, but a ton of other technology communication infrastructure for their entire campaign outreach.
So that's a really good one.
The monthly recurring revenue has been nice to look at.
They have some good dashboards now.
And I'm a competitive guy.
I enjoy having that thing to watch go up.
So I appreciate you guys for joining in here.
Again, there's a tweet pinned up in the nest above.
Do your research into it.
We only want informed investors here.
We are going to have the team on where you guys can go in and ask questions. Any questions you have in the future, they would love it. Go poke holes,
anything like that. I'm excited. We're going to have Isaac and Travis back on. But again,
that tweet pinned up in the nest above is how you guys can do your research into this.
They are doing a reggae offering, planning to go public later this year. Before the midterms,
I would guess that is the plan. Under that ticker GOTV
is the one that they have on the NASDAQ.
So please go in, do your research,
check that tweet up in the nest above
and come back to us with some questions.
We would love to answer them
thank you guys for joining us on this one.
I'm excited to keep asking more questions and track along how you Really smart guys. I'm excited to keep asking more questions
and track along how you guys are doing.
I'm excited to see that opening bell ringing.
We see some good videos out of it.
But yeah, I appreciate you guys for joining.
Yeah, very, very excited for that.
It's going to be a good time.
I'm excited for those videos to come.
But again, tweet pinned up in the nest
above one last time has a lot more information there these guys are doing this in public having
the conversations here they want you to dig in they want you to come back with questions they
want you to come back with other thoughts on it as long as we're being constructive here i know
they're going to come in and answer all the stuff so i appreciate everyone to be pinned up with the
nest above follow the speakers we will be back on on Spaces tomorrow at 3 p.m. Eastern, as always.
So thank you guys for joining in.
Check that tweet pinned up with an us above, and we will catch you all tomorrow.
Have a great one, team. .