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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Sept. 23, 2025 Duration: 2:27:24Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, market experts analyzed the impact of Powell's comments on employment data, highlighting potential partnerships and growth opportunities in the crypto sector. The conversation also touched on trends in tech stocks, the significance of funding rounds, and the ongoing evolution of yield generation strategies, indicating a robust environment for innovation and investment in blockchain technology.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. What is up, everyone?
Welcome in.
Happy Tuesday, September the 23rd.
And I'm just surprised that I see red on my screen.
I almost was not used to this.
And we're back to prices we haven't seen since yesterday morning.
So, yeah, there we are.
Actually, previous day low right here on SPY and QQQ, both down 0.75 on QQQ, 0.66 on SPY.
IWM, I guess relatively outperforming, made a new all-time high in the morning.
And then since sold off down about a quarter of a percent, the Dow Jones about the same.
We saw tech kind of sell off a little bit early. Amazon was getting just absolutely obliterated
off the open. And NVIDIA down about the same amount, 2.8%, 2.9% on those two.
And most of your MAG7, I guess actually all the technical MAG7, are red.
Broadcom kind of fits into that same bucket.
It's break-even.
And yeah, I mean, there's a few bright spots in the market.
Taiwan Semi's up pretty big today, 3%.
Oracle down 5%. So a couple of things going different directions there.
Yeah, kind of an interesting day in the market. We obviously trend straight up all day yesterday,
and we basically trended that move back down today. And here we are. So curious to see what everyone's thoughts are. Obviously, not a crazy thing,
but here we are. Options Mike, I always love when you kind of come in and kick us off.
What are your thoughts around the market today? Any news stories or anything that stuck out to
you? And is this just a, hey, we had a bunch of updates kind of in a row.
We had a trend up all day yesterday with no volume really to catch us underneath it.
And we just came right back down.
Hey, I think part of this was it's, you know, we've talked a couple of times that, you know,
this is typically a weaker week in the markets near the high Jewish holidays yesterday you know
things start to actually close yesterday and you get today you're getting a little bit of a down
day we're still an inside day on the expiry on yesterday's candle that's not like we've gone
far Powell spoke today and you know he was Powell was Powell and you know again kind of you know
kind of saying you know don't don't count on getting a lot of rate cuts here until we figure out what's going on.
But they are paying more attention to what's going on with the employment data.
And the market kind of didn't like that.
We're already weak, and it kind of sold off a little bit more off of that.
And, you know, what I'm watching here is the VIX is up nicely.
And the VIX has kind of been weird.
We've talked about a couple times this diversion where the VIXIX has been up in the market sub for the last two weeks.
And here it is pushing out of the top of the Bollinger Bands.
And that usually means a risk off environment.
You know, some names were getting hit harder than others.
Like you said, Oracle got absolutely trounced today.
Amazon's getting destroyed.
Microsoft, you know, a lot of weakness there.
Coin, another one getting hit hard.
Meta.
I'm still in a couple apple calls from yesterday
you know it's uh holding in better than most other names for now you know looking around the banks
which were very strong early have capitulated they rolled over and gone red and we saw that
with a lot of names uh you know nothing was exactly easy today it was a very choppy day early
you know kind of those doing those days where you trade and you know i traded palantir early took a loss on it as it took me for a ride but then found other things to trade
to make it work boeing was very nice to me today off that news about the they're close to closing
the deal with china for 500 uh jets that would be very good for them amd had put a high of the day
in about an hour ago and now it's just on the lows and same thing with hood which put an all-time high and again today but now you know just off the lows came back in
but still holding in fairly well all these names you know they're kind of holding in there and
video got trounced today and that was kind of a little bit surprised i was looking for some
follow-through there after hitting an all-time high yesterday it just didn't have it but taiwan
semi was strong we have micron earnings tonight and from my perspective you know let's see where this wants to go we haven't broken the eight day on the spy yet you know and as long as
we hold the 21 day i think this market's fine these dips in the market have been very very shallow and
very short so we'll see if this one is any different if there's a one thing thing or do we
get a couple day pullback maybe get down to a three percent pullback in the markets that would
be nice uh but you know not overly reading into this at this point.
Just kind of, yeah, typically this is what we get this week,
and we'll see where it goes.
Yeah, a lot of people on a sell-off day like this,
they start to try to explain it after the fact.
Do you have anything around those lines,
or are you kind of just like, ah, up a lot of days in a row, some thin volume structure underneath it?
The volume overall today, how was the volume overall today?
We're about $55 million on the SPY.
We're about average here.
It's, you know, nothing wrong with it.
I don't know.
This market's been melting up.
So we have a down day after three up days in a row, which was preceded by two down days.
I mean, I try not to read too much into this.
You know, it's really not like that's like, you know, it's not like we even have a really wicked candle here yet.
You know, we're holding above the eight day.
I don't I'm not trying to read into this.
It's just it was kind of a weird day, a funky day.
It kind of felt like that from the open.
The markets were such a tight range overnight and flat that was your first hint right instead
of gapping up like we've been or anything we were very flat very tight range uh trump spoke quite
at the uh at the um united nations and not that he said much to really affect the markets but you
know that sometimes that brings volatility into the markets as well and i'm not really reading
into i'm just saying okay we'll see what we get we get here. If we get a dip, I'll be looking to buy it and we'll go from there.
Yeah, I hear you. I always see people speculate, well, what did Powell say? What did Trump say?
And I really didn't see any of that. I just thought it was kind of mechanical in nature.
It was interesting. You mentioned this.
The banks were strong.
Energy was really strong today.
IWM was strong there early, but the NASDAQ was really flat.
A lot of the MAG-7 were pretty flat.
We noticed that yesterday, and then your comments about the overnight.
The overnight, obviously, if you watch the futures, the overnight range in ES, for example, was like nine points.
It was very small sideways kind of overnight.
It was obnoxiously tight.
And that usually, you know, that's a sign that you take and say there wasn't a lot of volume.
There wasn't a lot going on.
And okay, well, let's, you know, be careful here on the open.
And, you know, the other thing for me is like, I was looking at Palantir and Boeing in the open and Apple and NVIDIA were some of the names I was most interested in.
Oh, and CoreWeave had a nice upgrade. And none of them were screaming to me, I need toVIDIA were some of the names I was most interested in. Oh, and Core Wave had a nice upgrade.
And none of them were screaming to me, I need to get these right out of the gate.
And that's usually telling to me.
When I'm sitting there and I'm not anxious to jump into a trade on the open, that usually
means that, you know, trying to be a little bit more careful, I learned that about myself.
Perfect.
Appreciate you kicking us off.
As always, Options Mike, feel free to jump in anytime and anyone in the speaker panel up here. If somebody says something you want to add on to or or maybe debate a little bit either way, please feel free to jump in or throw up a hand.
up here with us on stage. Wanted to bring you in for any thoughts that you have or anything that
we were talking about there with Options Mike or anything else that kind of stuck out to you with
today's action or since the last time we spoke. Here we go. How we doing? Good. You know,
a little pullback Tuesday. No big deal. How are you? Yeah, it's good. Yeah, I agree with Mike.
Not overthinking. You can't ever think one day price action. Anyone who does is just silly. I think it is interesting if you look under the hood. Breath is fine today. Actually, more stocks are up in the S&P 500 than are down.
heavyweight index is going to mask a lot of the price action underneath the surface.
I think also, if you looked at, if you just used some short-term readings, going into today,
tech had 89% of stocks above their five-day moving average. And so it being such a large
part of the market, a pullback at some point. I mean, anyone could have gotten on here in the past
three, five days and said, yeah, expect a pullback, right? So to not expect something like
this, I think would have been silly. I think the bigger story here that I like is what energy is
doing, not on a short-term basis, like energy's up today, great great but if you actually just zoom out on a chart like XLE or
even just some components within energy I think one especially if you're an investor asset
allocation is a portion that you need to understand and with S&P 500 you're getting 3% exposure to
energy so energy being able to maybe turn around here, reclaim its 200-day like it's doing, and kind of build out this constructive-looking base, I think is productive for that asset class as a whole.
I think if you are worried about inflation or maybe inflation a little bit, something like INFL is an ETF that involves kind of some inflationary beneficiaries.
A lot of what's in that is materials.
And then it actually has a lot of capital market names, which tend to do well, right?
Because as asset prices rise, capital market companies tend to do well.
That's up a percent today.
But zooming out, it looks better on that bigger time frame.
Yeah, I mean, I think those look good. I think there's a, the thing I'm seeing kind of within my feed is
seeing a lot of focus from people on quantum stocks and nuclear stocks, and then taking
the runs that they've had, and then extrapolating that into the entire market for the market being
overvalued. So I would just say, look at the actual value of uranium, nuclear stocks,
and the actual value of quantum stocks. And it's literally like a joke. It's a joke. It's less than
$10, $20 billion. It's nothing significant. So yes, can assets worth less than $100 billion create this huge bubble in two random asset
classes?
Sure.
But look at something like industrials, XLI.
It's just trading sideways here.
So I think you get what you look for in the market.
If you want to look at stuff that's extended and think it's a bubble, you're always going
to find something that looks that way.
There's thousands of charts. So look at something like industrials just trading sideways. Looks
fine to me. You're not really seeing any discretionary to staples blow out on a day
like today. Like I said, you're not seeing breath kind of dissipate. You're seeing momentum,
right? So growth factor and momentum factor are the two lagging factors today. Guess what's been
the strongest factors the past two weeks?
Momentum and growth.
So I wouldn't really overthink any of that.
I don't think this is like the top by any stretch of the imagination.
I think, right, you have pullbacks and strong uptrends.
You just want them to kind of stay above maybe a 50-day RSI.
Maybe some people mentioned moving averages.
I'm not as big of a moving
average guy. But you have some overbought readings that are now maybe going to rotate out of
overbought. That's okay. You want to see the market get punched. Let's see how it responds
to getting punched because that's what's kind of important. But no reason to really overthink it.
Like I said, like the energy space, like some of that non-correlated S&P 500 megatech trades as a whole.
Larry, are you seeing, like with the move in energy that you mentioned, are you seeing this as more rotation?
Are you seeing this maybe as just some slight, and I say slight on purpose, exhaustion just after a big
move. I'm just curious if you attribute any of those things kind of broadening out or, I mean,
because I looked under the hood too, and I look at Valdi and ValdiQ a lot, and both of those were
positive today. Yeah, so rotation is extremely complicated from the standpoint of being able to actually pinpoint someone moving
from one asset class to another. I think it reminds me a lot of politics where traders,
investors, technicians, fundamentalists, everyone is guilty of this, where they say a term and then
they never define it. I don't see this necessarily as like, oh, people are selling technology today to buy energy. I don't know.
But I do know that the actual underlying trend in energy is improving and that stocks that were just
melt up, you could say that to a degree, are correcting a little bit. I don't overthink
that from a rotational perspective because we just don't know yet.
And I think it's way too early to say that.
I'm more of a trend follower, so I look like longer-term trends.
And the longer-term trend is that technology is crushing it, and it looks great.
So I don't really overthink that relationship too much.
I know that's like a lame answer, but that's just the reality of kind of my process. I do think that if we do see rotation out of tech, that is not
by any way a bullish thing for the market because it makes up 30% of the S&P. So if you do see
strong rotation out of tech, it doesn't matter what else it rotates into. It literally doesn't
matter because it's not big enough for it to matter. So if tech implodes,
that's the P500 implodes. It's just the math. So that's why I think you kind of do a little
bit of both in your portfolio, right? If you think technology is extended, you don't necessarily
sell in a bull market. You just might be adding to something else to kind of protect yourself a
little bit. So that's kind of how I view it. Yeah, I really enjoyed those
thoughts, especially the portion of rotation there, because that term gets thrown out so often,
not just on this space particularly, but just in general across this app and among a lot of
traders and investors. So I think that was a very important piece to hit on as well as
the rest of things there. Appreciate you, Larry. Feel free, of course, as always,
to jump back in the conversation at any point. I want to bring in Mr. Against All Odds Research.
Jason, how are you? Hey, that's my boy. Hey, what's up, guys? What's up, Larry?
No, I'm excited to be here. Whenever I have time, I'd love to come on, chop it up with everybody.
You know, excited to be here whenever I have time.
I'd love to, you know, come on, chop it up with everybody.
But yeah, no, just looking at the market today, I think we're all kind of, you know,
everybody's kind of expecting something to go one way or the other.
And the one thing that's really hard to do when you're in a bull market is to really
understand we're not in control of the bull market.
We can put on the positions. We can
have wide trailing stops. We can have targets. We can do those things, but we don't have really
control over it. And markets shift. You know what we were talking about earlier with Larry talking
about rotation. He's absolutely right. So let's talk about like what we, how I quantify rotation. Cause that's what I actually do
for my own fund is I quantify the rotations. Cause if you're doing it and you're just going,
hey, you know, markets rotate, that's fun to say. And it's true, but how do they rotate and how do
you make money from it? That's the hard thing to do. And so, you know, if we've just looked at the
markets today, I'm just going to bring up
some charts here. If we look at, let's say, Coifin, always an easy one for me to go to,
just know all my information is going to be on there easily. And I look at the spider sectors
and I go, okay, what sectors are kind of leading the way today? And just on a one day rotation,
we're seeing, you know, XLEs up there way at the top. Basically,
nothing's positive. XLI is negative and everything below that is XLK, XLY, XLFs, SBX, XLB. So,
there's a lot of things lagging today heavily. But I don't look at that short-term time frame.
Like Larry said earlier, we were talking about the fact that we're trend followers.
I'm a trend follower just like Larry is.
Maybe our timeframes are different,
but I think at the end of the day,
a lot of trend followers have the same types of ideas.
So if we look at it on a three-month timeframe,
and this is how I quantify rotation,
and it's because if you backtest rotation
and you find the strongest sectors
in stocks within a three month timeframe, the ones that are at the top usually continue to lead the
way for the next three months. So what's at the top right now? Well, in the three month timeframe
and not looking at today, today's just too short term. You never know what short term moves,
they happen. They're going to go back and forth. I know logical, you know, I know you also trade long term too. You know, looking at that,
you're just going to kind of, you're going to drive yourself crazy looking at one day
moves all the time. Some people are very good at it. I'm just not. And I know that about myself.
So if you look at the three month timeframe, you see the Russell's at the top.
So small caps are leading the way. Then you have
technology behind that. Then you have communications behind that, consumer discretionary behind that,
which basically tells me technology and small caps are leading the way. This is where as a
trader I want to be. Now looking at XLE, even though it made a nice move and even on a one
month time frame, XLE is still not really holding up there like the rest
of the sectors. And if we go deeper, and this is also another way you can quantify is get into the
subsectors. Now the subsectors are looking really good right now. So if you have GDX all the way up
at the top, 118% year to date, I still can't believe I'm saying that out loud, but that's
the truth. So the leading sector in the subsectors is gold miners.
Behind that, we have XME, which is the metals and mining sector. Below that, you're starting to get into clean energy sectors, semiconductors at 32%. So these top four sectors usually will continue
to lead the way. So I like to, oh, sorry, I was on year to date. Looking at the three months,
so i like to oh sorry i was on year to date looking at the three months uh same thing clean energy
gold miners metals and mining uh yeah so same exact uh setup semiconductors right below that
so same exact setup even if you look at it on a three-month or year-to-date time frame
it's usually telling me that to your end we're probably going to see most of these moves continue
now the thing I think is
probably the place to be, and like Larry was talking about, you know, asset allocation is
important. But as a trader, you know, especially a retail trader, you don't have to think about
asset allocation like a fund would. But how do you do it to just make money as a simple retail
trader? Well, you continue to move to these stronger and stronger asset classes or sectors,
whether it's, you know, and I think that's the thing, like a lot of people get stuck on,
especially in the day and age we live today. When you're looking at, you know, you're a trader,
you want to become a trader. You're like, I'm fundamental. I'm a growth investor. I am a tech
investor. I'm a gold bug. You know, everybody has like names they call themselves.
And really, the way to make money is I'm just a trader.
Trade everything in front of you.
There's going to be, you know, I always loved, you know,
listening to the old school macro guys talk about, you know,
I think it was Jim Lightner talking about buying Turkish window companies
when there was an earthquake in Turkey.
You know, just whatever it is, like be willing to figure out where you're going to be at and how you quantify that to get in those areas.
This year reminds me a lot of 2021. Yeah, technology is doing fine. Nothing wrong with
owning tech, but you're starting to see these moves happen in other areas. Don't be afraid to
pick up a gold miner. And those are
pretty extended right now. So also start to look at the copper miners. Copper miners are just starting
to make new highs right now. Could look very similar to GDX in the next six months. So I'd
start looking at the copper mining sector. That's something that's going to be very important going
forward. The lithium miners are starting to move like crazy. Solar stocks are starting to move.
So there's all these areas where you can really kind of put money to work right now
that I think people just aren't really paying attention to.
That's the biggest thing I want to say today because I know that, you know,
the pullback in the market, it feels scary to some people,
especially if you're short-term trading.
But knowing that there's other areas out there
that you can put some money to work in,
you can make a lot of money this year.
2021 was a year where a lot of people underperformed
because they were so focused on one asset class or one sector.
And so this year, I think it's important to be very diversified
across different sectors, continue to look at different things,
different stocks, and you're going to continue to outperform the other market participants.
Yeah, a lot of great things unpacked there. You kind of hinted on some of this, but
when you're looking for pockets of opportunity right now, I mean, if you're already in stuff,
obviously, it's easy to kind of just ride the trend, right? But are you looking in certain
areas, kind of like you were mentioning there with some of those different miners for different
opportunities? Or are you kind of in the ride the trend, sit in kind of wait type of mode? I'm just
curious what your approach is right now. No, um just just to add you know it's i mean it's it's and you know this and even even
saying it's it sounds easy to ride the trend um but it but it's hard um when you're when you're
making money in some of these moves and you've been in them for a while like your brain's telling
you to just cut those profits and run and so it's also hard to ride these trends but if i would you
know gdx like for example like you know if you're looking at gdx or the miners like i own like you
know some of these have ran so much it's almost like i kind of want to cut these and run myself
but i always know where i'm getting out before i'm getting in so you know it's either a trailing
stop or some sort of exit i'm not seeing any of those exit signals or trend change, so I'm just going to hang on to those.
Next thing up, if I was to go, hey, what's the next sector that I really want to start looking at?
I'd say there's two.
Now, metals and mining, there's things that are just starting to work.
The steel miners are just starting to work.
But also, some of these copper names are just starting to work. But also some of these copper names are just starting to work.
And, you know, getting outside of the United States, I think, is going to be important in this because we're seeing even better performance in some of these areas.
BVN is one that's just breaking out of a massive base.
I think that thing's just starting.
So BVN is a really good one.
Another one was HUD Bay, you know, HUD Bay was another
one that, that actually, uh, really kind of shrugged off the whole, um, basically BVN and
HUD Bay shrugged off the whole, uh, tariff news that came out of the United States and that just
continued higher. So I think both of these are going to look very similar to how the copper or
the gold miners look, um, going forward. So that's one area that I'd start to look at. The other area is obviously energy.
Energy outside the United States looks even better than inside the United States.
If you look at something like Shell, Shell hit a new 52-week high not too long ago. That's a good one to look at. Baker Hughes, that's another one, BKR.
That one's continuing to be an uptrend. And really, here's the thing that I would suggest,
because I know most people are going to want to buy things that are low and feel like that's
going to be the way to make this work out very well. But if you're swing trading and you're
trading in a timeframe that's over a couple months or even. But if you're swing trading and you're trading in a timeframe
that's over a couple months or even a month, you're going to want to start to own, especially
in a weak sector, like energy isn't the strongest sector right now. So if you're going to start
looking at energy, you want to buy the strongest stocks inside of that sector. Baker Hughes is one
of them. So I think that that's one you can continue to look at. You know,
we just put out a trade alert for that today. And it's made it its highest high in the last decade.
So we're starting to see some strength in energy. But the areas that are already showing strength
are definitely copper miners, metals and mining. I think those are really the areas where you're
going to see a lot of alpha. And these aren't like companies you want to own for the next 50 years these are things like these are trading
vehicles the gold miners are trading vehicles if you really think about it gold mining companies
are not usually very well-run companies they're not always profitable all the time but when they
are profitable and when people are fomoing into them that's when we make a lot of money so that's
when we want to be in those.
And it's the same for copper miners.
Energy is a little bit more sustainable.
But at the same time, I think these are all still trading vehicles because guess what?
We're all traders here.
If we weren't traders, you better just throw your money in the S&P 500 and walk away.
way. That's the easiest thing to do and have a much easier life. But if you're crazy like me and
That's the easiest thing to do and have a much easier life.
you love trading these markets like I do, start looking at these very strong stocks inside of
these sectors. And I think that's where you want to be right now. I appreciate that rundown, Jason.
Larry's hand went up in that. So we'll go over to Larry and then we'll continue around the panel.
Yeah, I would just say to piggyback some of Jason's work that he mentioned, which is good.
And it's also like the reason we're not, I'll speak on behalf of Jason because I know a lot of what he does and we talk on a frequent basis.
But like we're already allocated to tech.
So like talking about owning tech from a trend following perspective is like, yes, we're already in it.
So that's why we're kind of talking about stuff outside of it.
Just kind of an FYI.
We're already long it.
But I would also just say when you're looking at energy, the XLE kind of isn't great right now because the top heavy components of XLE are what's not doing well.
heavy components of XLE or what are not, or what's not doing well. I'll just add a couple more names
to the list that Jason mentioned from a energy perspective, but MPC is Marathon Petroleum
Corporation, looks really good. Valero is a explorer and producer that looks great. PBF
is another name that looks great. So you can just, you can take that same relative
performance and you can also do it via these individual names. And you'll see a lot of these
are basing like tech stocks were basing back in April. They're just not going to be the first
movers off of lows because they don't have as extreme of a beta positioning, uh, typically.
So I think the energy play, you can really just see
these bases kind of turning around, getting back above the 200-day moving averages, getting back
above these VWAPs. And about two weeks ago, 100% of energy components of XLE were above their
20-day moving average, which typically when you're in a basing pattern and then you get like a breath
thrust, that's typically confirmation that the move has legs because people are allocating,
like institutions are allocating broad base to a sector, kind of like what we're seeing in small
caps right now. It's just not an individual name that's driving it. They're actually allocating
for more of like a broad-based sector bet. So
that's just some of the thoughts I also had on top of what Jason was saying related to energy.
Cheers. Yeah, really good thoughts, Larry. I appreciate you jumping back in. Logical,
your name was mentioned in there a little bit. So I want to bring you into the conversation next,
see if you had any thoughts around any of the pieces we've hit on so far or anything else that stuck out to you today.
Yeah, definitely interesting day. Can't go up forever. What I've been doing,
how I manage my portfolio is I am constantly monitoring with a bit of paranoia.
And that's because I run, you know, greater than 100% long.
Is that me that drugged or logical no it's not sorry okay I was just I don't know why I was just making sure all right go ahead logical no no sorry I don't know why I muted me there
um sorry what was the last thing you heard just I don't repeat myself uh energy you've talked over
100% margin yes exactly so I yeah so I run a levered long through a bull market.
And what I do on days like today, which is not that big a deal because we went straight up, right?
But I still pay attention to distribution days, which I felt like today might have been one.
I look at all of my holdings.
I flip through the charts.
I look to see which ones have ugly candles, whether they're low volume or not.
Obviously, low volume, I can be a little more lenient with it.
But if I see a big nasty red candle that undoes three, four, five days of trading price action,
typically I'm like, oh, that's a momentum killer.
So I'm very hyper paranoid about how I manage that
exposure because I am levered. So I basically take days like today to say, okay, you know,
this recent rally for the last few weeks has been amazing. I probably don't need to run 150%
long anymore. So I brought it back down to a more reasonable level. I'm still 117% long,
which is still very long in this market. But I cut a lot of exposure from tech. I felt like
those had kind of the ugliest candles. I think it is one of the more owned sectors, obviously,
which means to me, it feels that it could be one of the ones that are more prone to be sold
because people own them to sell them. And again, those were where the ugly candles me it feels that it could be one of the ones that are more prone to be sold because you know people
own them to sell them um so you know and again those were where the ugly candles were today
and i you know kept a lot of the names that i thought were still very strong um you know this
evolved technology evld actually added to that one today that's some bullish consolidation. Some April calls came in yesterday in size.
What else? Galaxy, I'm still holding on. I think that can be a great exposure. It's been holding
up really well. And even on today's pullback, it looks like it's just retesting the prior highs.
But there are a lot of names that I felt like, eh, lost a little bit of momentum today. And
they just kind of are looking a little bit weaker. And they feel kind of like,
I don't know if I want to say dead weight, but like, I don't really want to be holding onto
these things, um, in these scenarios. So while I'm still 117% long, 62%, I just did a portfolio
update. So I just saw the numbers, uh, 62% of my exposure is biotechs still. Um, So I'm still very bullish there. But 50% of that 62% are in four names that are
very high likelihood undervalued names for potential buyout candidates. So, you know,
I'm basically what I'm trying to say is that like half of my exposure almost
is in names that I feel pretty confident. And if there is a buyout, they will be
going for a much higher premium. They are past like their points of, you know, these binary data
readouts. And, you know, I've been holding strong, like, you know, a name I've mentioned a lot on
here is Nectar. I continue to hold that in size. It's still my largest position. And I think, you
know, we're still waiting on a couple of catalysts there, but ultimately, even on the information we have today, this stock should probably be much higher.
So, yeah, I mean, I remain pretty overweight there.
And yeah, as along with, you know, a few other names and one of those names I actually added to meaningfully today.
I added to it, you know, a couple of these names in the last couple days. Like those are the kinds of holdings that I really like to hold right now because you know if things are crazy from a valuation standpoint let's say on
earnings and multiples and you know all that stuff well then I don't need to do much to justify
these names and they're not really going to be under as much pressure from the overall market
because if these stocks sell off for any reason, there's going to be a buyer just because these assets themselves are undervalued based on peer comps and things
that have been bought out in the past and the data that we have available today.
So I think Wolfie's on here.
He always mentions idiosyncratic opportunities.
And I think some of these biotech buyout candidates continue to remain some of the best opportunities on the market without having to be too concerned about the broad market behavior and valuations and all that jazz.
And it's been a record M&A year in biotech.
So I imagine that that continues to take shape, develop and progress like we saw with, you know, MTCR,
MTSR being bought by Pfizer yesterday. So, I mean, this M&A stuff just keeps going. So,
yeah, I've been talking about that thesis for a while and it's playing out and I'm going to
continue to hold those names because the risk reward is very solid. I could see, you know,
50 to a hundred percent upside in several of these names. And I don't really see a ton of downside,
maybe famous last words, but so far so good. And other than that, yeah, just holding strong
names in these various sectors. I have a pretty outside of, you know, those, those bios, which
are, you know, buyout candidates. I have a fairly diversified portfolio. Like I have some pretty, outside of, you know, those, those bios, which are, you know, buyout candidates,
I have a fairly diversified portfolio.
Like I have some industrials, I have some consumer, I have some tech, you know, so,
you know, maybe I should be thinking about some of this energy a little bit, but I always
find every time I look into energy, like I'm, I'm really dumb a bit about like macro and
crude prices.
And that ultimately is going
to drive it. Similarly to the 10-year, what the 10-year is doing and what mortgage rates are
doing, what's the spread on mortgage bonds and all that stuff. Like what is that going to,
that's going to determine a lot of the housing activity in the housing sector stocks,
which is why I ditched them basically around when the Fed cut rates. Because
if you recall last year when the Fed cut rates, because if you
recall last year when we started cutting rates in September, the 10-year got down to 3.6. And as
soon as the Fed cut rates, you know, basically the 10-year rate went straight from 3.6 to 4.8
over the next few months. So I don't want to be in a lot of these macro trades that are out of my control.
I want to just own things that I think are going to do well regardless.
And, you know, obviously the macro tailwind being aligned with them definitely helps,
but I'm not really seeing too many clear signs, whether it's energy and inflation and commodities,
or if it's, you know, 10 year and housing boom.
And, you know, I'm not seeing that it's constant, you know, tug,
it's a, it's a pull back and forth. Um, you know, maybe on the commodity side, you could see
obviously, uh, precious metals and have been doing absolutely really well. So, but yeah, I'm not
really a macro or commodities guy or, so I'll stick to what I know, which is valuation of assets and,
uh, you know, finding undervalued stocks.
And that's what I've been doing.
And just a more reasonable level of exposure today that I got it down to.
And yeah, ditch the weak stocks in a raging bull market.
Hold those strong stocks.
That's it.
All right.
Appreciate you, Logical.
I'm going to cut in here.
Logical, can I ask a quick question?
You can ask a question. Go for it. Yeah, sorry. Tell me about this EVLV, this Evolve Tech. This chart looks beautiful when you zoom out.
Yeah, it is. What do they do? have a weapons detection system. It's a $1.5 billion company with basically an infinite runway. They're already being implemented at like stadiums in America, a bunch of different schools.
They have, you know, there's a lot of like places you could go internationally as well. Like
they just have a really long runway. They have a SAS component to their, so they have like an
annual recurring revenue as well in their model. So, you know, this is, maybe it's getting a little
pricey on the multiple now, but the
stock's holding up really well. And I think people might pay up if this ends up being like the next
Axon or something like that. Yeah. I mean, that base is pretty ridiculous when you zoom out.
Good chart. Yep. Been long since 340 when they had delinquent filings, but it's a good stock for sure.
Larry, is that where the type of stocks you're digging into as kind of a technician guy, more looking that way?
I mean, these, I don't want to say,
yeah, some interesting names.
Yeah, so I, there's a bunch of different models, right,
you can build.
But one of them is just looking at larger, longer-term bases when IPOs, like if an IPO gets back above a certain critical threshold, or if it gets back above its IPO AVWAP or all-time high AVWAP, and it has this big fundamental – because I believe, right, like price, price has a lot of information in it.
So you have people like Logic buys at $340 because fundamental people tend to buy first, right?
And then a lot of trend followers will ride the trend, right?
So a lot of fundamental, you normally hear about fundamental people.
The reason most of them aren't rich is because they can get out too early. And so what technicals a lot of
times will do, especially if you're trend following, is you'll get in and you won't care about that
valuation. So you'll just keep holding it. Not that that makes it better. It's just know the
poison of whatever you're doing. And so something like Evolve looks a lot like something like
Lemonade, this big base that is kind of changing character of price action.
You look at something like Hood.
This is what Hood did a while ago, right?
Huge base trend change.
Same thing with Palantir.
It IPO'd and then you have this huge base trend change.
So I admire those types of patterns.
What type of stocks do you trade normally?
Or like what do you trade?
Is it even stocks?
I trade everything.
I think Jason said it well.
I trade price charts.
So I run a lot of different types of scans and then there'll be a ton of charts that pop up.
But I would say I trade a lot of these bases.
Right.
So look, for example, I'll run.
If you're curious how I got some of these names, I'll run ARK.
Right. So I run an ETF scan and then I'll dig into the components of ARK, and I'll see which components are doing the best within ARK.
And so then that's how I come up with a lot of thesis.
And then I'll run some scans, and I'll look at metal and mining names.
And then I'll look at the components within metal and mining.
So there's no discrimination against what I trade.
I would say, if anything, the discrimination comes down to kind of market cap size sometimes.
A lot of the stuff I do is just S&P 1500.
So that's kind of how.
But like something like I'm looking at Reddit.
I'm looking at Rocket Lab.
I'm looking at a lot of these IPO names.
So something like FPX, I believe, is the ticker.
Yeah, FPX is the First Trust IPO Index Fund. And if you zoom out on that, it's trading at all time highs. So I'll
download the components that make this up. And then I'll look at all the IPOs that are in it.
And I'll run an all time high AVWAP from the IPO price. And you'll kind of see trend change. And
you'll see these bases change. Same thing
with Genius, right? These all have that similar base forming trend changing charts. And then I
just get in when I think I have confirmation of the trend change instead of getting in on the
fundamental basis like other people do. Because that's essentially what technicians believe a
base is, is a fundamental change in what's occurring.
And then that base breaks out because that fundamental shift has occurred.
And as that base breaks out, that's a lot of times when valuation gets kind of iffy.
And so like a lot of valuation people may be selling, but that's when trend people tend to get in.
So that's kind of my quick and short of it. But that EVLD chart just looks a
lot like those bases that are forming. I even think Stock Talk talks a lot about that. But
it's funny when they talk about these fundamental shifts, and then the chart is literally from a
technician standpoint, that's what the chart is reflecting, a fundamental shift.
standpoint that's what the chart is reflecting a fundamental shift so you want to yeah sorry
no i just said i dig it i dig that chart yeah i know this one doesn't look as nice as that one
right now but we're gonna we're gonna talk about it a good little bit here emps uh this is part of
my uh fuck you em trade uh bm and r you want to tell me what you it's moving a little lower right
now ethereum it looks like there there's maybe some levels that like, you know, 4k, 3900, maybe
wants to move lower a little bit.
But what are you thinking here?
I haven't touched this.
You asked me about this last time.
Let me zoom into the daily chart.
This might be a little, a little bit of a segment going on here.
Yeah. Right. I mean, it's consolidating.
It's not really breaking down. For how volatile it is, it's broken down. It hasn't really broken down. If you look at like an ATR, which standardizes the volatility. But that's not my type of trade.
This isn't something I liked.
I do, was it ETHA?
Is that the Ethereum ETF?
Yep.
Yeah.
I mean, that looks decent, right?
You kind of have this risk reward if you look at the base breakout against this $30, $30.80 area for something like Ethereum here.
If this can kind of dig in.
What I would love to see, and this is where it takes experience to understand this.
I would love to see this kind of undercut $30, right? Cut down to like $28 and then flush people out and then kind of do this failed top breakout
higher, kind of like this failed top breakout higher,
kind of like what semiconductors did. But in general, I think, right, I think you have to
be exposed to some of these cryptos as a whole. But BMNR is not a name I'm really touching,
to be honest. The crypto, do you take anything away from that right now? Because like yesterday,
I mean, just huge down candle from Sunday into yesterday through
all the major moving averages, basically except the 200 day.
But I mean, your 50 day, your 20 day, if you use the MAs, your 921, all of those just got
just smoked yesterday.
And then today, kind of a follow through day a little bit.
I just, is risk coming out of there a little bit?
Or do you take anything
away from that? Or do you just say, ah, it's volatile and it may be cooling off?
Yeah, I mean, right. I would say the latter of those two options. I'd say,
eh, it's volatile, it's cooling off. My level to get out is lower than here, right? I tend to give
Bitcoin and these types of things a little bit longer of a leash.
I would also say one of the nuances of moving averages is if an asset is consolidating,
those moving averages kind of mean less in the short term because basically a moving average
being flat means the moving average isn't a signal. It means it's noise in that moment.
Not that that's the case
necessarily with Bitcoin. But yeah, I think you just got to give this a little bit longer of a
leash when it comes to that. And I'm not overthinking that as a space as a whole,
just because I think there's so many ramifications of it. And the correlation has kind of
gone away just a little bit when it comes to cryptos as a whole to like large cap growth
tech that I'm just I'm not overthinking. I see asset class as its own right now. If I saw this
in tandem with discretionary breaking down and staples breaking out, maybe, or if I saw bonds
kind of catching a real bid relative to the stock market, maybe.
But I think this thing's wiggling at its own drum to a degree short term.
So I'm not overthinking it.
I want to ask you one more and shift the conversation this way and bring some of the other people into it.
Micron earnings coming up after the close or about 15 minutes less than 15 minutes from the close
earnings hub says these numbers should be coming out around 4 0 1 p.m eastern
yeah micron were some interesting numbers i'd last quarter they it was looks like record revenue
for them 9.3 billion i'm seeing 11.2 billion expected some nice pretty strong numbers for
micron expected to be coming out here the The stock has been performing pretty well.
I know this has been a trader on here.
I know people have some thoughts about it,
and I want to hear everyone give some thoughts around it.
But, Larry, from a technical perspective,
I mean, it's just been straight up recently.
So I guess it's kind of hard.
I mean, what else for you to say?
But you look at this Micron one at all, Ever all, I mean, if you want to talk about bases, right?
You want to talk about fundamental shift.
Just zoom out on a monthly chart and look at like, oh, 2000.
It just cleared.
It was at $96 in 2000.
So this base just breaking out, right?
Kind of formed this cup and handle on a longer-term chart.
I think if you're looking at something like this and saying it's extended short-term, you're right.
And if you're looking at something like this on a longer-term timeframe and saying it could just be getting started, you're also right.
So from a timeframe perspective, it's like, yeah, short-term, pretty extended.
But when you zoom out, man, this base and this sector, this asset could just be getting started.
Right now it's what?
Let me run this math.
It's only, yeah, it's like 12% above its 24 highs.
So the base really just broke out.
really just broke out. So pull back to this like 150 area, I'd be a buyer. But right now this isn't
So pull back to this like 150 area, I'd be a buyer.
the short term trend isn't something I'm going to be trading and something like this,
kind of with the way it's extended at the moment.
Whoever got into that.
Just straight line up over the last little bit.
Yeah. Yeah, it's cool. Yeah yeah since it's April low anyone it's
been ridiculous anyone on micron want to kick in before I start to throw it
around to specific people I think I saw a hand from stocky you can just go I
actually don't see up here as a speaker yeah yeah so I've been in micron average
cost basis around 60 I got pretty heavy in it,
in the sell-off in April. That was part of my core AI basket. But, you know, high band with memory,
you know, it's basically the driver here. And with AI CapEx continuing to go hockey stick,
it's, you know, Micron, Micron certainly in the crosshairs of being a beneficiary there. But
I will say the stock is, you know, the last three prints, even with good solid prints, it's sold off.
So it's also heading into the print, obviously, with not only obviously some pretty impressive price performance,
like it's up 40% over the past month, but it's also trading at the highest valuation into a print since late 2024.
Not that it's trading at a particularly high valuation, mind you, it's like 13 times forward
earnings, but it is a cyclical, or it's seen as a cyclical business that often trades for
even sometimes like single digit earnings multiples. So a little bit of risk perhaps
heading into the print, but I've been trimming the position some ahead of the quarter.
But I think people may be surprised that the sentiment and narrative on Micron is always like the tech investors are sort of afraid that the cycle is going to kick back in and pricing on DRAM and NAND is going to come back down and competition is going to kill profits again.
pricing on DRAM and NAND is going to come back down and competition is going to like kill profits
again. I think this cycle though is going to be more persistent than a lot of like the
typical semi-investors are used to, at least until we get, you know, the open AI,
NVIDIA circular relationship breaking down. But yeah, so I think like I'm still long-term
bullish micron. I do think heading into the print, you do have some risk given like,
given the setup
and the fact that it tends to trade off on earnings, even when the earnings are good.
So yeah, I think people will be surprised long-term at the level of persistent demand
and margins at Micron.
But in the short run, who the hell knows because people like to get scared on any negative
potential comments in the call.
Doc, I've heard you talk a little bit about Micron here and there.
Yeah, I'm not particularly interested in here.
I'm not particularly interested in any of the large cap semis.
My focus is on the mid cap semis, as you know, as usual, I'm almost always
focused on the mid caps in the sector. I think they provide the best risk reward universally.
If you're looking for upside on a percentage basis, and you're also looking for companies that
don't generally have as serious financing or debt obligations as their small cap counterparts,
that's why I focus on mid caps. And almost all of my biggest trades in my life
have been mid caps that have grown to large caps.
Almost all of them.
Even the ones this year, like Nebius, Kratos,
Centris Energy.
These are all mid caps.
I mean, Nebius is now a large cap,
but it was a mid cap when I entered it.
Kratos was a mid cap when I entered it.
It's now a large cap.
Centris isn't quite there, but I think it'll get there.
Almost all my core positions, that's the thesis.
I find a mid-cap that has a highly specific thematic exposure to which it is a pure play.
And I look for things like rarity premium.
In other words, an asset that that company possesses that is not possessed by other peers.
Centris Energy obviously has the only commercially viable enrichment plant in the United States of America, period, end of
story. That's why I bought the stock originally. That's why the stock has had such a ferocious bid
in the nuclear space. I mean, it's the most bid stock outside of the SMR names, right outside of
Oklo, SMR, NNE, which I can't touch those at these valuations because they're pre-revenue
companies. Like the SMR names make no sense to me. If I was going to short something in nuclear, I would short those, but I'm not an idiot.
I'm not going to short high momentum names.
But if I was going to, I would.
But, you know, I think there are counterparts in all these spaces that are revenue producing, that have rare assets, that have strategic importance, both from a federal policy standpoint and just from a national security standpoint.
Those are the places I want to be.
And it's funny, I feel I kind of listened to a bit of this conversation at the start.
I know why people are talking about going into other areas because tech's obviously extended and is that a hell of a run.
But like on a day like today, I mean, maybe I'm living in a world of my own or something, but nothing in my portfolio is breaking down.
I mean, I'm allocated to names that
have performed well, right? As of yesterday's close, my portfolio was up 250% year to date.
We were flat today, up 0.2%, you know, and on a day where the portfolio should have been red.
Yeah, I had names like a small cap name. I have a 3.5% allocation, D-Pro, which was down 7%. But
outside of that, nothing was down materially in my portfolio. Outside of D-Pro, the thing that was down most was Fubo, down 2.85.
Lyft, down 2.25.
Digital Ocean, down 1.7.
And then I had nine names green.
Energy Fuels, which is my dual theme exposure for nuclear and rare metals.
This thing just won't stop getting bit.
It's 1670 now.
We picked this up at 868 on August 1st.
It's doubled in a month. Every time nuclear is
hot, energy fuels is green. Every time rare metals is hot, energy fuels is green. Every time nuclear
fades and rare metals are hot, the stock goes red to green. It's like just a relentless bid under
this thing. And this is one of those names where, again, if you're overtly focused on the daily
chart, you got shaken out of this in August, when it had minus 14% candle on high volume, because of fears around Russian uranium supply. And immediately the day after that,
the stock was up like 23%. We took out the highs and now is making new highs for three days in a
row. It's pushing 17 bucks now. Zoom out on energy fuels. Look at the monthly chart on that thing.
It's breaking out of a decade long price base on five months of consecutive highest volume ever.
And not just by a small margin.
I mean highest volume ever by like a 10x margin.
So those are the types of names I want to be in where there is clear signal that they are heading for massive, in some cases, multi-decade re-ratings.
Centris Energy is breaking out of a 20-year base on record volume.
Energy Fuels, same thing. Kratos, same thing. Do I feel the need to rotate out of these names
because we get one red day? No. And I didn't feel the need to do that a month and a half ago either
when people were talking about this. I just stuck with these names. And look how they accelerate
portfolio performance. I don't really buy the idea that if you are an excellent stock
picker, and if you are overtly focused on the micro, that you need to make dramatic rotations
ever, frankly. I mean, you stay in the market leading names. And when they break down,
yeah, then you start to reconsider. But like, my turnover is very low. Anyone who's I mean,
thousands and thousands of subscribers are in
our community who see my entire portfolio every week that they're had, they have been for years.
So I'm not speaking out of my ass here. There's thousands of people that can verify this, but
when I, my turnover is low. I pick two to three core positions a year in highly studied industries
that I know like the back of my hand. And I pick what I think is the best mid-cap name in those industries and I ride them and are there instances where I get shaken out of those names
yes yeah there are instances where the setup just breaks down I get out in many cases they trend
higher you know they they reverse they come back up and they trend higher and you know in some
cases I'm like oh I should have zoomed out. But for most, for the most part, like almost everything has worked for me this year that I've put convicted size into. And I know
it's an easy market. I'm not like saying like, Oh, look, you know, it's, uh, it's me versus the
market, but, um, it is an easy market. But if you stock pick, well, you don't need to have this um like cat chasing the ball attitude like i don't get any fomo i
see people talking about like all these stocks that are ripping like bmr uh open door better
all these things that are going up hundreds of percent i'm like oh yeah i'm not knocking you
i'm just saying like there's a ton he just did You literally just did. That's the first one you said.
I'm saying I don't own it.
Don't partner me with those guys.
My Colts has something under that.
All right, sorry.
BMNR is superior.
I asked you about Micron, and here we are 10 minutes later.
BMNR is superior to Opendoor.
Suck it.
I'll say that for you.
I'll say that for you.
What are we saying?
My point is that I don't get FOMO about treasury stocks or meme stocks or anything because i don't feel
the need to own them to super perform i haven't owned any of them really this year and i've done
just fine like i think this idea that you need to be in the stuff that's going up the retail crowd
is centered around that's going up like crazy that that's having 15% days that you need to be in those stocks to super perform. You don't, you do not, you know, and you can, you absolutely
can. If you're in the right names, ride these hot thematics without ever rotating. I haven't
rotated out of the, my core names in like five years. I've added some core names along the way.
You know, every year I add
a couple core names to build on new thematics, but I haven't rotated out of those names in years
and they just keep performing. Like, I mean, who are you trying to fool is my view on this. Like
the market is constantly trying to fool people into getting out of those names.
That's the game. Like, look at, look's rotative action, okay? Can anyone find me
a sustainable rotation last year in 21? Like a real sustainable rotation where you found
outperformance over a quarter or two quarters by fully rotating into those new sectors? No.
No, there hasn't been one. You know, even in 22, okay, in 22, you could say, yeah, you could have dodged the tech sell-off by rotating in energy, right?
That's a fair argument.
That's one year out of five where that rotation would have made you any sort of significant outperformance relative to just holding the leaders and doing nothing and doing nothing.
Right?
I was talking to this, to uh our community about this this
morning i was like every time by the way all what market is close yeah but i was talking to me about
this every time we get a red day every single time like without fail the conversation becomes
where is the money going to rotate the conversation becomes are the momentum names breaking down
conversation becomes well this name and this name and this name, which are all
market leaders, had minus 8% days.
Go look at the last time these stocks posted those types of days and look at their three
month performance following that, right?
They are much higher.
They're much higher.
Go look at the last momentum stall in, what was it, July or late June?
I forgot when the last momentum sell-off was.
It was like a week of momentum selling.
Go look at the leaders since then. I beg you to. They are all materially higher,
those thematic leaders, like 40, 50, 60, in some cases, 100% higher from the stalling action for a week or a week and a half in June. There has been no real significant rotation of money in
this market. And I think Larry mentioned this earlier very astutely
because there is not enough market cap for the money to go to.
All the market cap is in those market-leading names.
And so when the rotation happens...
Micron numbers are out.
I'm seeing EPS 303, Micron 303,
being in expectations, revenue is $11ron 303, being in expectations.
Revenue is $11.3 billion, being in expectations.
Stock's not moving too much in after hours.
Initial move is honestly pretty much just unchanged.
We'll see what it ends up doing.
But Micron MU earnings are out.
This looks like it was their fiscal year.
This was their fiscal Q4, which means they should have given guidance.
Heather, I just saw a headline from Wall
Street Engine and Fast Stock Market News.
Tesla said
to seek up to $20 billion
in private placement.
Shout out BM&R.
But where's the forward guidance here?
Is that what's missing?
No, they have it for just next quarter.
They didn't give a full year forward guidance.
Further information regarding Micron's business outlook is included in the prepared remarks and slides, which have been posted.
Micron stock is up 2% initial move now, 170.
We'll see what ends up happening there.
I'm going to say one last thing on this topic.
We're going to wrap it up.
When you do see rotation, like real rotation, not for a week, not for three days, you'll know it.
And that's when you should be concerned.
Because the market will not hold up at these levels if there is real rotation into defensive areas.
So, yes, there are defensive setups.
Larry brought up a few of them that look good.
There are defensive setups on an individual stock basis in energy and in health few of them, that look good. There are defensive setups
on an individual stock basis in energy and in healthcare and in finance that look good.
Those make good longs, in my view, if you want to buy them. I will not be buying them.
Because for me, I still think on a net percentage performance basis, if the markets hold up,
if the markets hold up, now that's a big caveat, that the market leading names will still net net outperform over the next six months.
That's my view.
Could be wrong, but that's the view that I hold.
And my positioning reflects that.
And I would rather rotate to cash than rotate to defensives when that time comes, when that
time comes.
And that is what I will do.
I will rotate to cash, rotate out of short-term
options, positioning, rotate into maybe one or two defensive names, maybe. And I will largely
rotate into cash so that I will be prepared if a broader market does sell off come to just buy
the market leading names again. For a micro guy like me, that's what matters. I do not listen to the macro noise at all. There's always
going to be somebody saying that a crash is coming, that this is coming, that that is coming,
that there's commercial real estate debt. Watch out. The renewals are coming up. Somebody's always
going to be saying some shit like that. I just ignore it. All of it. I just look at the price
action on my stocks, the stocks that I own. Why would I care about the stocks that I don't own?
I look at the price action on stocks in my own, and when they start breaking down,
that's when I get worried. How do I know this works? Well, I know this works because
earlier this year on the deep seek moment, I cut half my exposure. Why? Because the stock
started breaking down. What happened three weeks after that? A brutal tariff sell-off that sent
all of those names way lower.
And I was very glad I made that decision.
Now, did I need to preemptively imagine or speculate what the tariffs might do in order to get out of those exposures?
I didn't even think about it.
What I saw was I saw a nasty candle on DeepSeek that broke down a lot of the
short-term names I was holding in Photonics and in Data Center. What did I do? I cut those names.
Three weeks later, they were all 40, 50% lower, right? But the price told me to get out of those
names, not my imagination. And this is the mistake that most new traders and investors are making. They're
allowing their imagination to guide their portfolio guidance. You're going to be a chicken with your
head cut off if you act like that. You're just constantly going to be buying into every
prevailing narrative in the market, and you're going to be operating your portfolio to adjust
for that and leaving a lot of money on the table and very likely giving a lot of money back to the
market as well. So be convicted, study the names you own well, understand the thematics you own, understand
what the durability of those thematics are and when they might be getting long in the tooth.
Do your work and you'll be able to hold these stocks and not have to worry about, oh, I got
to get into energy names. I got to get into home builders. I got to get into this. I got to get
into that. You won't act like that because you'll just ride the high conviction names that you own and monitor their charts for strength
and momentum and as long as they hold that you know you're great that's my comments on all the
rotation and fear and all that stuff that we were talking about earlier
by the way tether looking to raise at a $500 billion valuation,
the same valuation as OpenAI reportedly, $20 billion,
looking to sell 3% of the company.
That's reported out of Bloomberg right now.
Interesting. I thought it was interesting.
Yeah, Stock Talk, good to throw it over to you,
but Micron stock is up about 4% right now in after hours. $173.
Forward guidance, they said between $12.8 billion next quarter, above expectations of $11.9 billion.
I'll throw it over to you.
We can go to the rest of the panel.
I don't know who we haven't gotten to yet.
Do we get to Sam?
Do we get to Godfather?
Sam, what's up?
Sam? Okay, Sam, what's up? Sam?
Okay, Sam might be AFK.
Godfather, what's up?
Hey, guys.
Yeah, look, this is Sel Rosh Hashanah by Yom Kippur, right?
We're right there between now and when's Yom Kippur?
October 1st.
Yeah, look, this is the sort of two-week seasonal week period.
It's kind of coinciding as well with, you know, some blackout windows and some quiet periods. I'm
looking at, you know, the economic calendar. There's nothing really of note until, you know,
we see non-farm payrolls on the 3rd of October. And then, you know, I'm also looking at, you know,
sort of filling my calendar up with things that are meaningful to read-throughs of, you know, I'm also looking at sort of filling my calendar up with things that are meaningful to read throughs of the market leading sectors.
Obviously, AI being that number one.
So, you know, things really start to kick off here in the first week of October.
OpenAI has got their developer day on the 6th.
Dell's got an analyst day on the 7th.
You got Semicon West, you know, from the 7th to the 9th. Then you've got Dreamforce the next week.
You got Oracle's doing an AI world conference that next week as well. Net also doing their
conference. So, you know, there's, we're going to get a lot on AI in the next two weeks.
I saw the information put out this piece today expecting an expansion announcement out of OpenAI and Oracle and Stargate.
That'll be interesting. You know, I don't I don't know where this talk of rotation is coming from.
You know, honestly, the NDX is up three weeks in a row. I think we're up 12 of the last
14 days is the first real sort of down day. And in the last week, we had pretty much every index,
along with NDX, the Russell, SPX, and the Dow all making the highs. So look, I'm just scanning
my sectors. And I'm with Stock Talk in terms of investing mostly in predominant themes.
And I see double digit returns in some nuclear stocks. Space is strong. Rare earths are strong.
Again, you know, these are the themes that have been working and look to continue working.
and look to continue working.
Another day, another new high on KTOS.
It's interesting when I look at the defense group.
I'm sure you all saw this headline out of Palantir
in partnering with Boeing Defense
and Accelerating AI Adoption Across Defense.
Look at the names that are outperforming
and it's AVAV, it's KTOS,
and now you've got Carmen in there
making a new high on a daily basis names that are outperforming and it's AVAV, it's KTOS and now you've got Carmen in there making
a new high on a daily basis along with KTOS. So it's pretty obvious where
and within these predominant themes you actually want to be. I'm looking to sort of accentuate
that by focusing on some of these second derivative
plays.
You've heard me talk a lot about physical AI.
There's some small cap names that we cover on a small cap spaces on a weekly basis in
that group that continue to perform extremely well.
We had another strong day out of names like Lightpath and ONDS and even BZAI participated for the first time in a while.
But, you know, Paul Bacchard of OUST, you know, anything that's involved in capturing information that gets utilized for processing at the edge and inference.
You know, yesterday you had in this announcement with NVIDIA and OpenAI, Jensen basically talking about every device,
every product having an AI overlay in it. This is physical AI. It's not just your EV.
It's everything from security cameras to autonomous vehicles, et cetera. So there are a lot of
smaller companies that actually provide stack components, be they hardware or software, AI accelerators or algorithms or compression, innovative compression software.
That gets parceled up with the primes in winning these large contracts.
And these guys have an incredible tailwind to their business.
So, yeah, I agree that there's no reason really to stray too, too far from the teams that
are working in this market.
It was good for me, though, to hear guys that are looking at the XLI components and, geez,
these charts on the MPCs and the Valeros and the PBFs that were mentioned are all pretty
impressive, especially since the beginning of September. I'll stand here and honestly say I've missed it,
but that said, I don't think I've missed a lot of market return. But yeah, it's good to see
other sectors, I guess, participating in this market. But yeah, kind of a quieter period.
But yeah, kind of a quieter period.
There's no time to be forcing things.
I think it's a great period to stay at the wheel, though, and take advantage of dislocations in the market.
You know, guys were asking me in Discord today, you know, what happened between one and two?
And I said, well, frankly, I was off the desk for 40 minutes.
And, you know, I thought Powell had finished his speech in Rhode Island, didn't really say anything.
And it's marriage to run. I come back and everything had gapped down lower.
Now, most of that got made back again. But, you know, this is what happens, you know,
in these quiet periods in the market when a lot of folks are away, be they on Jewish holidays or otherwise. So, yeah, training around CORE, that's been the theme today for me.
Go ahead, Larry, jump in.
Yeah, I just, I'm laughing over here. i'm pretty sure you asked me about rotation
and then so it's just funny like i'm like two things are true i'm talking about rotation while
also being allocated to the momentum of the market so just just for people the clarity there like
there's nuance you can you can say there
to be clear larry i wasn't knocking you i got it yeah i just i just heard a lot of rotation talk
so i just wanted to address that well that's why that's why i originally asked larry about it
because there's been so much rotation yeah like talking around that i was like i wanted larry in
everyone's comments but that's my fault for being late i didn't hear the initial context you're good you're good no it's funny i'm uh
i actually if anything i i wrote a post a couple weeks ago don't go read it i'm not trying to plug
reading my crap i'll read it i love reading your stuff i'll read it no but um i wrote about it's
a post i'll just retweet what i said but like it's a chart of IWM versus large caps or tech versus anything else.
And it's basically like the rotation is here is basically the boy who cried wolf.
Right. And to Stock Talk's point, until the trend changes like longer term, price will let you know.
So just clarity there. Like I'm looking at a few energy names.
So just clarity there.
Like I'm looking at a few energy names.
I have very limited exposure to it.
But it is just, if you, especially here's another thing too.
And this is, I love this part because it is nuanced.
If you do get nervous, right, something you can do is allocate to an uncorrelated asset.
It's definitely going to pull down your absolute returns,
but it can help your equity curve.
So if a day like today, you do get nervous because you maybe are in a couple large cap growth names, right?
That's basically what pulled back.
Small caps looked fine today.
A lot of stuff looked fine today, actually.
You maybe have some exposure to energy
or something that's non-correlated,
gold, inflation assets, right?
INFL is a ticker. You can look at it. That way, when that portion of your portfolio does draw
down, you don't panic, right? Unfortunately, people take that to the extreme where their
portfolio doesn't move at all. But that was just more of just some of the context around that.
The other thing I wanted to say is just short term,
I do also look at tactical charts. The Qs closed above their 30 EMA on a 65-minute candle,
which is their five-day EMA. That's kind of served as support and kind of been like a by the dip.
Also looking at the Qs on a shorter term, the 65-minute candles is what I use because it
divides the math evenly. Just look that up if you're curious.
I don't feel like explaining it to people.
But RSI 50 on that 65-minute is actually starting to curl back up.
So one of my models is going to have me hold my nose and buy the pullback today.
So we'll see how that shakes out.
But there's a famous – Larry Connors is a famous guy,
but there's a thing called Connors RSI.
I'm not going to explain it.
Essentially, you get a veracity of selling
that doesn't really mean anything.
And then you buy the open the next day.
Now you can, the models improve
to where you buy the actual overnight session.
And one of the good things about that
is mean reversion in nature.
So like short-term pullback then leads back into the long-term trend, which is why I like
And then two, if it doesn't work, the risk is then like, oh, okay, now there's probably
a little bit more downside to the market.
So it kind of gets you skin in the game on one side of the trade, um, to kind of get
long.
But yeah, just wanted to add a little context there to the rotation talk
i was kind of asked about and i do yeah yeah we're on the same page um i know we are i know
i always like your stuff and we usually agree and i don't want i don't i don't want you to
misperceive that i was coming after you i was more so talking about the idea that
we do sort of always talk about this like like not we, but yeah, the community always.
Yeah. Whenever we get a red day, it's like, it's like, as if, as if the market leaders don't need
to consolidate and pull off, you know, of course they do like any other stuff. Right. And it's
during those periods, actually, in my view, it's during those periods that a lot of investors
mistake that consolidation as the end of the trend. Right. And they rotate to neglected
industries thinking they're going to be the next uptrending. And it's that sort of like preemptive
portfolio management that I was kind of speaking against, right? Like doing stuff before you see
it happening. And like, I'll summarize basically everything I said in three points. First of all,
I'm a believer that you sell the technical breakdown and not the narrative breakdown, right? Narratives are for suckers.
Number two, leaders lead through rotative action, through seasonal periods. The markets tell you,
in my view, very loudly, which are their favorite names and you should pay attention.
And number three, when tech breaks down, the market breaks down.
There have been a lot of themes in the past five years, a lot of great themes where a lot of money
could be made. The biggest theme of them all in terms of money flow and market cap is clearly AI.
That's what investors want. That's where the hype around markets has come from in the past three to five years.
There's a misperception, in my view, by value investors, by rotation advocates, that because AI market caps are becoming so big, that there is room on a relative basis for money flow
to neglected industries.
I strongly disagree with that viewpoint.
I do not believe that that is true. I think if the AI theme
fails, if the AI stocks collapse or correct severely, I think the market will collapse
or correct severely. I do not think there is room for a collapse in the AI trade and some magical
rotation to energy and healthcare. I just don't think that's going to happen. I think the market
will collapse, period. I think all of the enthusiasm at its root in markets in the last five years has come from ai almost all
of it and the all of the speculation in the periphery in my view is just a byproduct of that
enthusiasm that that's my view on where we are in the markets and where we have been for the last
five years i could be wrong but i do not think there's room for this market to go higher if the AI trade collapses. I think the whole market tanks in that scenario. Yeah, it'd be impossible.
I mean, it'd be great from an active perspective because you'd be able to get out of the market
and maybe rotate into that stuff, like you said, as trend changed. But tech breaking down means
the S&P 500 is breaking down, which means like passive flows are still going to flow into those assets.
And so if a big rotation, the big rotation is the Achilles heel of the market.
It's not an actual I wrote about this, but the lifeblood of this bull market is not rotation out of tech.
It can't be. So we're on the same page.
So, yeah, we're on the same page.
Yeah, and one last thing I'll say on this topic specifically,
because I think there's a misperception when I talk about tech in this way
that people think I'm only allocated to tech.
Anybody who's seen my portfolio in the community,
I have a nuclear rare metals basket.
I have an aerospace and defense basket.
I have a sports media basket.
I own four or five non-tech names that I think are at compelling valuations.
So I'm not only in tech. This
advocation I'm making is not because I'm 100% allocated to tech. I'm not at all, actually. I
have over 50% of my portfolio in non-tech positions. But most of my portfolios and what
I perceive as market-leading mid-caps. In other words, from a price standpoint, they are market
leaders, not from anyone's opinion. But from a price standpoint, they are market leaders, not from anyone's opinion, but from a price standpoint,
they are market leading stocks. They show relative strength versus the market. They trend higher than
the indexes, including the IWM on a percentage basis. Those are the stocks I'm looking for.
And if tech did sell off big, some of my names would get hit. Nebius would get hit. Amazon would
get hit. Tesla would get hit. But I have a ton of other names that would likely hold up in a scenario like that. So I think portfolio composition is important if you are concerned about,
hey, tech is extended. Hey, tech is inflated. I mean, I don't think anyone would disagree with
you that tech valuations are inflated if you difficulty with that is that that's where the enthusiasm is.
That's what people want to own.
The average person on the streets, like if they are getting into stocks, like let's not
pretend that they are going to go buy like a undervalued healthcare stock, or they're
going to go like the vast majority of people are going to be like, yeah, I want to own Amazon, or I want to own NVIDIA, or I want to own these like techs,
I want to own AI stocks. Like that's what people want to own. And the market has showed you that
very loudly. The volume shows you this, the escalation in market. NVIDIA is the biggest
company in the world. That's all the proof you need, right four trillion dollar company like you know they were
maker of video game chips just three and a half years ago so i don't fade market volume and
enthusiasm like i think there's a perception on twitter that you have to be a contrarian to do
to do well in markets or that you're smarter if you're a contrarian or something. I think there's
well in markets or that you're smarter if you're a contrarian or something i think there's like a
like a ongoing like perception of that. I think that's fucking bullshit. Like I've been in in
market consensus trades for a large part of my career and done very well. And if you leverage
them properly and size them appropriately, then you can super perform the market in market consensus
trades that everyone knows is coming you think nvidia for the last
couple of years has been a contrarian trade to long nvidia no but if you're long nvidia with
leverage and size you've destroyed the market returns and like i haven't even owned nvidia
so i'm not even saying like i was a big nvidia i've never owned nvidia you know but that's like
a pretty obvious trade for the last three years that a lot of people were like, oh, after the first quarterly run, we're like, oh, it's stretch, you know, and then it went to a four trillion mark cap.
So things can go a lot higher and a lot further than you think they can.
And I think the biggest mistake you can make is to say what the market wants is wrong and that I'm going to fade what the market wants and what's uptrending and what's showing relative strength and where all the money flow is going. Like that's a dangerous, dangerous
fade. One day you'll be right. One day those people will be right. And the market leading
themes will collapse, but the market will collapse in that moment too. So, you know, it's not like
they're going to be able to hide in their defensive stocks in those scenarios.
going to be able to hide in their defensive stocks in those scenarios.
Do you guys think most people confuse rotation with broadening?
Not to keep just being this topic, but I think that maybe sums up things a little bit.
Yes.
Yes. And I also I also think a lot of people have to bet and think there's going to be rotation because, one, it is that contrarian.
You have to be different somehow. So like counter positioning is like marketing 101.
So if you're constantly talking about rotation and counter positioning, it makes it seem like you have an idea that other people don't have.
But reality is, the S&P 500, for those that aren't aware of this one piece, the S&P 500 is a momentum fund.
That's why it's so hard to outperform. It buys stocks as they go up.
The S&P 500 buys winners, sells losers. It buys high and sells low.
It's literally what it does, and that's why it's so hard to outperform. So a lot of money managers or people who are selling research or stuff, they have to
position themselves in a different way from the S&P 500, which is momentum. So anytime we see a
day that rotates, they have to go hard at their blogs and their research, because if it does
occur, then they can look like a genius.
So the rotation theme to a degree is almost the same as a top. You're somewhat saying the same
thing but saying it differently when you kind of portray this rotation narrative. And yeah,
you'll see it in sporadic individual ratio charts. But just so you guys know, I'm a CMT. Literally,
I've studied all the books. I've read all the books. I've read more books than
you would even want to know about. Just so you know, there's 10,000 stocks in the world.
So you can take any stock and put it in the numerator and put any stock in the denominator
and make any ratio look like rotation is occurring at any point in time. That's why people give technical analysis a hard time is because you
can do that, but you can do the same thing with fundamentals. But I think the rotation thing is
just a, it's like power rankings in football. It's just like a random topic that you can then
write a tweet about, write research about that hasn't really ever, hasn't happened in 25 years, sustainably.
Yeah, sustainably is the key.
Sustainably is the key.
And that's not to say, like, there have been some snipers that have made some nice calls
on, like, intra-week rotation this year.
Like, if you're that kind of trader and you're like an absolute sniper like cream of the crop execution guy which 99 of the you in the audience
no offense or not like yeah okay you can make money off of that but most people are not going
to be able to make money off of that like the vast majority of you in the audience and the vast
majority of people who own stocks do this they buy a couple
of stocks and they hold them that's what most people do okay and if you're one of those people
i strongly advocate that you focus on the micro and not think about all of this other shit that
is constantly being talked about because you're never going to be able to hold your stocks if
you think like that. You never will.
You'll never build a core position.
You'll be the guy that has 50 position turnover
into a year,
and by the end of the year,
you have nothing with a good cost basis that you own.
Nothing.
And then the next cycle,
you have to do it all over again.
Who the fuck wants to do that?
This is the type of strategy
that is advocated for on Twitter.
With the constant sharing of setups and a new ticker every week, like, you do not need to do that to do well in markets.
I am proof of that.
You do not need to do that.
You need to find a couple of good names with great charts, right?
Great charts on the higher time frames that have all of the pieces to perform for a long time. That means
they have the thematic exposure. They have the policy support. They ideally have tailwinds on
growth already that can be magnified. They have good management. You know that the company doesn't
have an extremely high debt load that they're going to have to constantly dilute the stock against.
Like when you have all those boxes checking, be like, you know what, I can buy this and just hold
it for the whole cycle. And by the end of the cycle, I'm going to have a stock
at a 20 cost basis. That's trading a hundred plus that I can hold not only through this cycle,
but through the next cycle. If my conviction remains the same, like Nebius, I'm never selling
it now. Never. I bought it at 23 in May, basically at the lows. It's 100 whatever it is now.
They've executed.
They got the deal that I thought they would get in a much bigger size than I thought they would get it.
Like, why would I sell?
The stock could retrace to 50.
I'd probably buy more.
So that's the game for most people.
If you don't want to spend your whole life clicking buttons, then that's the game.
And I say this as a professional trader.
I don't say this as a guy that's like, I am at my screen all day.
Whether I'm on Spaces or on live stream with our community or I'm updating my portfolio or whatever.
I am at my screen, but I'm not doing much.
I'm not constantly like clicking buttons or like I'm not doing much.
That's how it should be if you're a good stock picker, in my view,
you shouldn't have to constantly hunt for new opportunity.
If you do feel that way,
not only your tax implications
going to be horrifically bad, way higher,
but your ability to have multi-cycle single stock holds
is going to become impossible
because you're always going to be up against the wall
with your cost basis, right? You're always going to be like, I'm in at 35 stock goes to 45
market cracks. I'm underwater. I have to be out of the stock as opposed to I'm in at 23 through
five quarters stock is at 105 market corrects to 75. I'm laughing. I'm like, okay, cool. Pull
it down another 20%. Like that's the difference in your ability to psychologically
manage drawdowns in the markets when you are a manager of stocks which most of you are most of
you out there are own a bunch of individual stocks and you just own them sometimes you sell some of
them or you trim some of them you buy new ones but like i'm an advocate for low turnover high
conviction well-researched positions that you hold through multiple cycles.
That's how you super perform consistently.
I just posted back to back 250% years on a seven figure plus portfolio with size on
high conviction positions.
Everything shared transparently.
All of my weighting shared transparently.
You don't post back to back 250% years if you don't have a process that you
believe in, that you're committed to. And I do. Robinhood, I've owned for the entirety of the
last two years, has been a core position. If I had just traded Robinhood last year, a lot of my
performance this year would have been inhibited because Robinhood performed again massively this year. Right. But I held it
through both years. Right. And so it's been a performance contributor through both years.
Nebius, I will now continue to hold. I believe it'll be a performance contributor for my
portfolio for years to come. There's other stuff in the port that I'm not going to own years from
now. Right. Like I'm not going to own Lyft. We got into that at 13. Right now it's whatever it is,
22, 23. I'm going to sell that by the end of the year or maybe by January. Right. I'm not going to own Lyft. We got into that at 13, right? Now it's whatever it is, 22, 23.
I'm going to sell that by the end of the year or maybe by January, right?
I'm not going to hold things like Digital Ocean.
You know, once that gets to my target, I'm out of it.
I'm not going to hold things like FUBA.
Once it gets to my target, I'm out of it. But there are core positions like Robinhood, Nebius, Centrist, Amazon, Tesla that have
owned for years that have performed through me for multiple cycles.
And the only way you can do that is if you do commit to names, if you're flippant and you're constantly looking
for the new stuff, you're never going to have, you're never going to be able to invest really
in stocks, which is the goal. Um, so yeah, anyway, I just get irritated because that's all Twitter
is just, here's a new irritated because that's all Twitter is.
Just here's a new setup.
Here's a new setup.
Look at this stock.
High tide flag, wedge breakup.
That's all it is.
And it's garbage to me, honestly, because it's just people chasing the margin constantly.
You know, chasing stocks that are up 600% year to date because they're in a high tide flag.
It's like, OK, dude, what happens if the market pulls back in that scenario?
You know, and you're you're long with size.
You get crushed.
So I don't know.
It's just, it's irritating to me,
but it's not going to change because people want instant gratification.
So most people won't learn,
but the smart traders learn, you know?
I quote tweeted a guy that's been in our community
for a couple of years.
He used to be a day trader
and he was a very profitable day trader
and he joined our community a couple of years ago.
And now all he does is just buy a handful of names,
high conviction names, and hold them.
And he makes way more money.
He wrote a paragraph on Twitter that I quote tweeted last week
and put it out.
And I was like, look, eventually everyone realizes this.
Eventually all the day traders and setup traders
and people who are constantly looking for the new opportunity,
they all realize this eventually.
They're all like, dude, I could have just held those three names that I loved,
the charts I loved, the valuations I loved.
I could have just held them the whole year in size.
Why don't I just do that?
Instead of fucking like a little rabbit running around.
But that's how most people are, so whatever.
Short attention spans, immediate gratification, poor conviction,
an inability to hold stocks through volatility all of microwave society yeah it's just a microwave like no balls society
like honestly like people just have no conviction they don't know the stocks they own well enough
they don't put in enough work they're lazy they they get shaken out by minus three minus four
percent days just like weak behavior. I hate it.
And it's like, you know, everyone wants to be in cash. Oh, I'm scared. I'm in full cash now.
You know, I'll wait for the market to get in better conditions. Like, dude, where are the
stocks you own? Where are the things you bought at the lows in April or bought in January this year
that you should still be holding? Like, oh, you're that terrified? Like markets go up 70%
of the time. They gonna crash dude they're
gonna crash at the end of this year next year there will be a crash okay you're not gonna know
when it's gonna fucking happen you're not gonna know so stop pretending like that like stop it's
just annoying i hate most of twitter it just irritates me boy i hit on the the good strings
today to get this one going for sure in this conversation on
a little pullback day. Wolfie, I don't think we've heard much from you on this space, so I want to
bring you in, see if you had any commentary or any other directions to go with this market here.
I don't know. I think it was pretty telegraphed to some extent, right? Like just some of the moves are a little bit up to the right. Pretty parabolic on some stuff when you start talking about when you start seeing like, you know, everybody, everybody's winning, then we talked, I talked about it yesterday when I was talking that it's not necessarily a sign to panic for a crash,
which is like what some of the tweets were suggesting,
but it is time to actually consider what you own
and whether or not you're willing to sit through some sort of drawdown.
But I got some stats for you.
Going into this week, I mean, Larry's a technical guy.
I think he's gone now.
Larry's a technical guy.
He's talking about technicals and all that stuff.
But there's other things you could use in conjunction with certain types of performance and things like that.
But going into the week and then extension through earlier in the day. The Barclays High Volatility Index
is working on its 14th straight day with a gain,
and its RSI was pushing at 86.
This is the highest on record dating back to 2004.
That index is 32% above its 200-day.
That's the only two times that it's been you know uh greater than that
was coming out of the gfc and uh early in 2021 at the height of the meaning mania so you know
it kind of gives you like a little bit of a tell of how parabolic some of this stuff's gone um
how parabolics on this stuff's gone. And then we haven't seen a 3% sell-off in the S&P since April.
To put that in perspective, we had a 3% sell-off today, you'd get back to about 6,500,
which is a drop in the bucket, right? If we go back to where we were in April when the sky was
falling, you know, I think unanimously across the board,
none of us thought that we would hit the all time highs
in the throat, like just coming out of April.
And then, you know, now it seems like no one can see,
no one, no one can expect in a short term period
of 3% pullback, right?
So the one before April, I think was the DeepSeek, and then the one before that one.
The one in that.
In terms of like, you know, some of the other things that you can kind of like point to,
if you just point to some of the high flyer names that people really like, particularly
like Palantir, Hood, etc.
You know, just the internals on Momentum seem to be a little bit weaker than they were earlier in the summer.
And on the back of, like, those were the leaders coming out of the back of, coming out of the April lows.
You can throw hymns in there as well.
So there's, like, these market, like, favorites.
A lot of them are owned by a lot of people up here.
And the internals on a lot of them have like started to um you know kind of
show a little bit of fatigue it's not it's not suggesting like again not suggesting that
you cut out there for anyone i think you got. It was getting a little rough. I think he got rugged there.
It's him as a listener.
Yeah, I think he got rugged on the listener there. We'll see if we can get him back up here.
Give it just a second.
If not...
Let's go over to Sam. Are you up here
with us?
I am. I am. He got r rugs which means that someone shorted him so i think i was you up short the futures i think he might have shorted the futures
um nope that's you no i don't sure i don't short futures i don't play futures anymore i used to
i should have shorted baltimore i thought you should done. Oh, yeah. I know. I should have.
That was a crazy game yesterday for
anyone who's watching football game yesterday.
I don't know. If anyone's curious,
Sam has come up
with a way to put
iron condors on prediction markets
and it's actually pretty
insane. I was
going through it last night going like, how is
this? He literally put on both sides of the tree to guarantee to win.
Yeah, it was great. It was great yesterday. Essentially, iron condors, when you sell a call
spread and then when you sell a debit, I'm sorry, when you sell a call spread, you sell a put spread.
So you want price to be, let's say the stock is $10 and you sell a call spread and a put spread. So then you want the price to be between like,
let's say $9 and $11. And then you'll take all the premiums. So you're essentially selling
premium on both sides. And that's kind of what I did, where I basically bet against the Baltimore Ravens winning by at least 6.5 points.
And then after that, as soon as they started losing,
I bet that the...
I'm like running a blank here.
You bet that Baltimore would win,
but you also bet that they would not win by more than 6.5.
So basically, I wanted...
You had both sides covered.
Yeah.
I wanted them to win, but I didn't want them to win. Yeah. I wanted them to win,
but I didn't want them to win too much.
And unfortunately, they didn't win,
but I still did fine on the trade because I played into like...
It's kind of like when traders...
Do you think Vlad envisioned this
when they pitched like,
hey, we're going to add prediction markets on here.
And then traders like you, me, and others up here, we look at this and we're like, hold
on, we should, we could put some complex trades on this prediction market stuff.
Honestly, like, I mean, that's just my mindset.
Like, I try to get the best possible return while putting on the least amount of risk
on the table.
Obviously, it's a lot of hedge fund managers working stuff.
I'm not saying I'm a hedge fund manager, but like but that's my mindset when it comes to this stuff, right? I don't want to have
a directional outcome when it comes to sports betting, like an absolute outcome. I want to be
able to either take profits and get out, or I want to be able to hedge against that, right? And
that's essentially what I'm doing with the sports betting. It's crazy because like, yeah, Vlad
definitely did not, he probably did not see this coming. He just thought, okay, well, I see Calci doing this.
I see Polymark do this.
So I want to put this on our platform.
This is a sure win.
And then now you get traders like me
who can basically take the liquid,
take the liquidity that's in the sports markets.
And there's so many people
betting into these things now.
And I can like get out and get in
if I feel like it's like a sexually true.
The only thing is the fee.
The fee is the only thing
that kind of caps a little bit of the upside there.
But anyways.
Hold on.
Let me hit on that.
There's a guy that I've been following that's tracking the hood event contracts.
Oh, yeah.
That guy's great.
Yeah.
So I don't think this is really like in the projections yet.
But it's really interesting when you think about this.
There was at least, based on his calculation, he's been following this closely.
So this is his source, not mine.
At least 276 million contracts were traded.
So that's $2.76 million in revenue just from this past weekend.
That's college football, NFL combined.
There's a couple others.
Premier League, I think, and Formula One had a couple.
But NFL averaged 9 million contracts per game.
It was 6 million in the prior week.
So, like, the volume is still ticking up.
But 2.76 million in revenue from one weekend to the hood bottom line.
Yeah, no, it's definitely, it's kind of like a win-win, right?
Like, sometimes, like, when I lose a sports bet, I'm just
like, oh, man, oh, man, they lost. Well, at least I'm upping
the revenue on the stock that I have, which is one of the biggest
positions. It's still a win win in some in some way, in some way,
it's a win win. But anyways, so my thoughts on the market is
that I have to say that there were a lot of names that's very high beta that
are running.
But like StockTalk was saying, they're really centralized around a specific sector and a
theme.
And a lot of that theme was energy.
If you look at the SPX, you look at SPX sectors, you could see that consumer discretionary
was down because you saw the Amazon broke down between the 20 and 50 MA.
And you could also see that XLF, which has been leading the whole way up in terms of
financials, was actually down today.
Who are the leaders?
Well, of course, it was defensive.
It was healthcare, staples, XLP, XLI, industrials, energy, which is what Stock Talk was saying,
real estate, and utilities.
Like, obviously, in today's market, just today, it was clearly sided with a risk off.
But it doesn't really make any sense because then you have names like Oaklow green in the day.
You have certain specific semiconductor names, namely Micron, which reported today.
The day did start out pretty risk on.
You saw IRN was at $44.
You saw a lot of the Bitcoin mining stocks that turned into data centers were up.
Nebius is actually closed green in the day, which is great.
Hems was up and everything was up.
And then it kind of faded throughout the day.
Now, I'm not going to try to read too much into it.
What I am going to say, because this is a fact, that we are trading pretty much,
I think Wolf Lio was alluding to this earlier,
we haven't had more than a 3.5% pullback since April.
I'm not saying
this is the time we're getting a pullback. All I'm saying is that, holy crap, this has been a great,
great year, right? And there is nothing wrong with trimming a little bit off the top. So that's what
it is today. I trimmed some off the top, definitely did not liquidate the portfolio. I don't do that
way. But some things have seriously ran pretty much. I mean, Iran has basically doubled
since I just had a little small position.
Nebius is up three times the amount.
Oscar almost got to 20.
He was a little decisively with trimming that one
a little bit as it went up there.
Newbank is at all-time highs.
D'Lo was near 52-week highs.
Rubrik has recovered pretty considerably.
Hammed recovered pretty considerably.
A lot of his names have really come up since then.
And even Hood closed at all-time highs today.
And at the same time, you see the leadership breaking down.
But not necessarily breaking down, but some of the leadership breaking down.
And then some of them pull back from the recent highs.
You have Microsoft, Netflix, as well as Meta, basically testing their 50 and 20 MA.
And I don't know, maybe it seems like a time where people decided, hey, it's been a great year. We're coming into the seasonally
weakest week in the entire year. We've had a great run against all of the weak seasonality
narrative that we've been getting. And the market's certainly still run. But at a certain point,
the stuff that I expected to be at a certain price target
has exceeded that price target a lot earlier than I expected. And I took some off the table by taking
some call options or leaps that I did have in these companies and maybe trim a little bit of
speculative stocks that ran a lot. Like Tempest AI yesterday, it was a great opportunity to take
some off the top. That was around, it was almost a hundred bucks. And I was on the back of news,
really good news but
then it still closed down in a day which is actually pretty interesting to see so yeah i mean
i i'm ready for a pullback but if it doesn't pull back hey that's great i mean i'm still going to
make money on the upside but at the same time you know the market doesn't go up in a straight line
and it certainly will pull back at some point and when it does pull back you got to have that list
ready i got i got a list of names that i definitely want to add to if we do get a pullback. Nebius,
of course, is one of them. I want to add to Estera Labs. I definitely want to start a decent
size position in Micron if we do get a little bit of a pullback after these earnings. And the
earnings on paper are actually good, but Micron is up about 40% on the year. I think it's about
40% the same in the last month. So, you know, great earnings report,
but maybe high expectation coming to the earnings.
We'll see.
We still have the earnings call to wait for on that one.
So, you know, just keep an eye on things.
And I think I got about a 5% to 10% cash position,
nothing too big.
But I do add to the accounts on a consistent basis.
So I've been looking to allocate those funds
to some positions.
But right now, my trading book is pretty flat.
I'm not really in any trades anymore
because some of the setups do look good,
but I'd rather wait for a much better opportunity
in certain names that I do understand a lot more.
Yeah, it seems to be the balance
a lot of people are talking about is,
okay, risk reward.
I like some setups, but what's the overall market conditions? Do I get a little bit lower before I get in? Do I just keep holding? I think that's a lot of the questions Genie was up a bit today, and I was looking to add to a little bit of the position
if I did see somewhat of a breakout here, but it pulled back a little bit of the market.
But that's also another name I'm looking to add to if we do get a little bit of a pullback.
I mean, even here, I wouldn't even mind adding here.
It's just that there's some other names I'd like to add to before that,
so I want to have that cash ready.
Yeah, Genie actually had a i posted
a chart dump last night for uh not all my i have 18 positions right now but i posted about
chart dump for about 10 of our positions last night for uh discord members and i posted the
jenny chart as well and it had a really really pretty daily setup going into today and it panned
out you know even on a day where broader markets were
down it had a nice pop off the open closed up two and a half percent that's the type of candle you
want to see uh when you have daily structure picking back up like that obviously we got
stuffed at the highs today which isn't ideal but i think this thing is going to continue to try to
form this cup here on the daily we take out that 1373 spot which is the local highs on the daily. We take out that 1373 spot, which is the local highs on the daily.
I think you probably get a run up to 1450. That's where you're going to encounter your next major
resistance. You break 1450. I think this thing can see 1617 bucks. So I remain long on this thing.
I mean, I was talking, I always talk about this, but zooming out sort of on the higher time frames,
you got the monthly on this thing.
I mean, look at the monthly, right?
Monthly just looks absolutely gorgeous.
You have the 921 EMAs and the 20 SMA on the monthly simultaneously crossing the 50-month moving average on highest ever volume.
That's very bullish.
It's not a typical formation.
And so price here now pushing up into this 13 to 1450 area, that's where
you're going to see some supply. You're going to have to eat through this. I mean, that's the reason
why the stock struggled when it came up here the first time, right? First time we got up into this
area, 1370-ish, we got stuffed. And if you retrace the local highs of 1373, if you retrace them all
the way back four years, you'll find that they were the local lows
when the stock ran from nine to 25 post-SPAC IPO. So they were actually the local lows from four
years ago. So that's where the stock should have met resistance. It did. And now I think it's
ramping for a retest of that area, likely because of the supportive volume. You have enough
volume here to hit an inflection. It's funny because traders are taught when they're new
traders to sell into resistance and buy at support. And I agree with that generally. I'm not going to
refute that because it's a pretty simple concept. But once you become an experienced stock picker,
and I would consider myself an experienced stock picker.
I've spent every day of my life for the last better part of the last nine years.
I've traded for 12 years total doing this.
And so when you when you have when you've been through the ringer and you've picked a lot of stocks, seen some work, seen seen stuff not work.
What you do is you try to build context.
And I always talk about that, right?
Like having multiple points of confluence.
Is the chart nice?
Is the valuation reasonable?
Is their growth?
Is the theme sexy?
So Genius obviously meets all those criteria for me.
It's a core position of mine.
We got into the 960s and it's moved quite a bit, but I'm still not a seller here.
And that's largely because when you're looking at these stocks that are coming out of
multi-year bases and coming into points of resistance which we're coming into with jenny
here in this 1350 to 1450 range you have two observations to make as a trader you can either say
well the stock's coming into resistance so i should be a seller here which is a fine decision
frankly i'm not knocking that decision right if you're along from the 960s with me, and you want to be a seller here, because we're coming into resistance
1350s to 1450 area, that's fine. That's a fine strategic decision, I should say. But if you're
a high conviction holder like me, and you're looking at the volume profile, the monthly,
what you're at, what you should be asking yourself is what is the probability based on the volume
that we actually break through this multi-year resistance. And for
me, I think it is high, which is why I'm still long, right? And when you see historic volume
supporting a multi-year base breakout into a point of historic resistance,
the context-less trader, in other words, the trader without context and just with the chart
may be a seller, but the trader with context may actually be a buyer in those moments as
counterintuitive as that seems. So I'm not a buyer here, but I was a buyer in the low,
or sorry, mid nines and low tens. And I'm still a holder as it encounters this area of supply here.
And I think it will break through and encounters this area of supply here. And I
think it will break through and head to that 16 to 17 range. I still don't think that people quite
understand the story here. I believe it is a software story and I believe it's still not
being priced like one. Once Genius does their investor presentation, I believe it's the end
of the month or maybe it's the start of October. Off the top of my head, it might be October 6th,
but I have to go double check that.
They have an investor presentation coming up.
For people that remember Sport Radar, SRAD, their stock had a major inflection when they did that first investor presentation day.
And you can see how Sport Radar has done year to date.
It's been an absolute monster.
The stock opened the year at $18 and is now a 30 stock so sport radar has
been a monster performer this year the story's better understood they're the league rights
holder for the nba the nhl all the non-nfl major leagues they hold the rights they were considered
a major risk to genius um like when i originally had my thesis one of the risks in that thesis was that they take the NFL rights away from Genius.
But obviously that risk expired earlier this year when we opened the position because Genius signed an extension with the NFL.
So that risk is no longer a risk, right?
That risk has been or should be priced out of the stock.
And I don't believe the stock is reflecting that risk being priced out yet because the NFL has essentially reiterated
their commitment to Genius and said,
look, through the 2030 Super Bowl,
you get exclusive rights.
And in the background,
they're expanding their sports betting operations,
which is obviously a creative to Genius's business.
So I think it's a sort of a double whammy
where you have the backing of the NFL
and you also have the NFL
accelerating sports betting initiatives on top of that.
So I continue to really like the tailwinds for the name and i think once genius at their investor
presentation hopefully does a multi-year growth forecast like a five-year kager forecast which
which is what sport radar did when the stock took off then i think december 3rd by the way
stock talk december 3rd sorry okay yeah they. Yeah. They've got November, November earnings.
And then December 3rd is their a sports investor day.
Okay.
Perfect.
So a couple of months away,
but yeah,
I mean,
I'd probably be a holder through that meeting personally.
I like how the stock has acted.
I mean,
yeah,
it's been weak lately,
but these last couple of days has recovered the 9 and 21 um and weekly and monthly structure
still looks gorgeous so i continue like genius you know um my cost base is materially lower
it's stocks 40 higher from where we got long but i still continue to really like it um you know
even the sports media names actually in general were strong today like i also own penn gaming
this one's been a bit of a consolidator since
we got in it had a nice ripper at first and then sort of consolidated um i think the reason for
that is we haven't gotten a lot of color around espn bet yet uh disney has not been very vocal
about it which maybe is a bad thing but i don't know maybe they're waiting for their earnings. I have no clue. Um, but Penn is, it's hard. It looks good
in my opinion. And it's hard for me to imagine that even if ESPN bet had a pretty subpar launch
that they aren't getting some kind of incremental market share. It's just such a big brand in the
sports world that I just can't imagine that there aren't people that are using the integrated
betting feature. So I remain long Penn. It's not a high conviction position. It's one of
my lower weighted positions, but it acted well today with, with a lot of the sports names,
you know, genius included, obviously. Um, so that was, that was chill to see. Um, Amcor,
obviously another green day. That is one of my, if not me, my highest conviction position right now.
It's already
after opening it two weeks ago, it's a top three waiting in the portfolio. That's never happened
before ever with any position. I've never opened a position. And then two weeks later, it's a top
three rated position, but Amcor is one now. Um, I know the stocks caught a bid as the story sort
of gotten uncovered in the last couple of weeks. I know I've been part of that sharing the Tim
Cook video, I think, helped.
People didn't believe me when I said Apple was a partner
and then I shared the Tim Cook video and the stock was up 6% the next day.
So I guess people wanted to see it from his mouth.
But it continues to trend up.
Stock's almost 30 bucks now.
We got in at 24, under 24 and a half just two weeks ago.
This remains maybe my favorite story in the entire market.
It just should not be trading at one point, was trading at one time sales,
now trading at 1.2 times sales, just nonsensical in my opinion. This thing should be trading at
30 plus PE and at least two times sales, in my view, considering the opportunity ahead of them.
I mean, you look at the news coming out of TSMC just the last couple of days.
They're continuing to reiterate the thesis here,
which my thesis is behind TSMC Arizona,
this really being a sympathy to TSMC Arizona,
but also being a sympathy to Apple reshoring
and also being a sympathy to Broadcom's new AI chips initiative.
I just tweeted that actually a couple minutes ago.
But I tweeted last night about the packaging initiative from Apple and MediaTek.
MediaTek is a phone maker in Taiwan, but they're both making new smartphone chips.
Apple's making the A19 Pro and MediaTek's making the Dimensity 9500.
A19 Pro and MediaTek's making the Dimensity 9500. And there was a report last night from
Taiwanese media that both Apple and MediaTek are telling Taiwan Semi that they want to make those
chips in Arizona as part of a plan to appease the Trump administration. And they're basically saying
that they're ready to do it as soon as TSMC Arizona is ready to output the chips. And so they're pushing Taiwan Semi to accelerate their build out at TSMC Arizona, which is
bullish for TSM, but also bullish for Amcor.
And again, I don't think the market understands this story yet, but soon I think, this is
what I just tweeted a couple minutes ago, I think it'll become synonymous with TSMC
Arizona. tweeted a couple minutes ago i think it'll become synonymous with tsmc arizona i think the market
will start to look at the stock as tsmc arizona effectively in in mid-cap form because they are
the direct packaging partner like any business the tsmc gets at tsmc arizona there will be overspill
to amcor and if broadcom wants to ramp their ai chips there's overspill to amcorp
and if apple wants to appease trump and bring more stuff to the us there's overspill to amcorp
and it's a six billion dollar company so i just it's nonsensical the valuation doesn't make sense
the capacity expansion on the horizon in 2028 will arguably fore X their revenue at which point they'd be trading at 0.25 times sales,
which is again,
stupid does not make sense.
So yeah,
I think Peoria will be accelerated that that's my thesis.
I think the Peoria facility,
which is due 2028 will be accelerated.
And I think it'll actually come maybe a full quarter earlier,
if not more, more than that.
That's what I believe.
No one else has said that, but I believe that based on my research.
And I also think that Wall Street is wrong.
The last four reports on the stock were downgrades.
I think they're all wrong,
and I think they're going to change their opinion in a few months.
I don't generally take contrarian trades, as I was talking about earlier.
This is sort of a contrarian trade where the street doesn't like it. People don't get the story.
People think Peoria's too far out at 2028. I think all of those things are not true. And I think the
market is going to find out about it. So I'm very long on that name and I have leverage in the March
and June calls.
And, yeah, we'll see what happens.
But that's a very high conviction for me.
On the Penn Gaming, they're the ones there.
It's ESPN Bet, right?
Or this one and the same?
Yeah, effectively. Yeah, they're managing espn batch operations i i just feel like it would be 10x better for them somehow or another to have that branding
whether yeah i know they can't change it but like because like i mean last night i'm watching
scott van pelt you know what i'm talking about you follow me right i'm I mean, last night I'm watching Scott Van Pelt. You know what I'm talking about? You follow me, right?
I'm watching SVP last night after the game,
and they're going through bad beats.
And when I watch on the weekends, you know,
there's ESPN Bet stuff is everywhere.
And I just feel like it's, if they found a way on Penn's side,
if they found a way to, like, provide it by Penn Entertainment,
you know, whatever it is, somehow put the name out there more just so people would make the connection.
I feel like that would help the narrative around this talk a little bit more.
Maybe it's good that it's not, but to me, it seems like not enough people have that on their radar
because it's everywhere.
The new ESPN app that's been updated now or whatever,
it's got betting odds everywhere in it,
but it says ESPN bet on everything.
I guess most people think that from the surface level,
they don't put the two and two together.
You're absolutely correct.
You nailed it on the head.
They should find a way to synonymize their brand with ESPN Bet. And I don't know how they're going to do that.
Frankly, they should rename their operation ESPN Bet.
I just don't know what the legality of that on Disney's perspective would be.
Because they manage and operate ESPN Bet under a strategic alliance, right?
So in 2023, people probably don't remember this, but in 2023,
Disney announced that they didn't
want to run espn bet on their own and so they were looking for a strategic partner and flutter
uh draft kings everyone bid and pen won they gave disney a favorable deal um and so pen runs a day
to day operations at espn bet they manage the betting activity. They handle the transactions. They use the proprietary technology stack of Penns.
And they hold the necessary licenses.
So all the licensures, Disney does not hold those licenses directly.
Penn holds them.
And so effectively, they are ESPN Bet.
But Disney, I guess, wants to retain ownership of the brand.
So there's a bit of a, I don't know, headbutt going on there.
I imagine Penn wants to rebrand the entire company as ESPN Bet,
but that would involve Disney probably forfeiting some sort of ownership stake
that they haven't already.
And I don't know how that would work specifically.
So that's complicated.
But, you know, they divested from Barstool Sports as part of their deal with Disney.
And so they effectively are ESPN Bet.
Their operations outside of that are going to be quite limited in scope.
Is anyone using ESPN Bet?
I've seen millions of commercials.
I've seen no one I know ever use it.
I have some friends that are using it.
I could be just not talking about people.
I have some friends that are using it.
But the thing is is i it's
it's tough to know because i you're right i've seen commercials too but disney hasn't said do
you use it like that it's actually a really good question i don't know i i haven't used it i'm in
texas but my friends who aren't in texas have used it but um they said it's integrated into the app
like you can go to a player's stat page before the game. This is what my friend told me. You can go to a player's stat page before the game,
and the lines for the game are there,
overlaid with their stats.
Because smart prop bettors obviously look at the player's stats
before they bet.
And so you go on the ESPN app to the page with the data,
like whatever, you're looking at wide receivers,
catching data, or whatever.
You're looking at the data, and then you're placing the bet they're on the same page like it's a hyperlink
so i think that's smart like i think that that's like going to increase betting volume the question
is is to evan's point i don't know what the volume of downloads have been because disney won't say
bob eiger was on cnbc they asked him he wouldn't say which i don't know maybe the volume of downloads have been because Disney won't say Bob Iger was on CNBC. They asked him. He wouldn't say, which I don't know. Maybe that's a bad thing, but maybe it's
also something he wants to save for the Disney earnings call. Bob Iger's argument was this,
which is that the sports sports betting already makes up a huge portion of Disney's operating
income. We had a discussion on this couple of months ago when I asked Evan, and I think we
came to the conclusion that it was like 30% of their operating income comes from ESPN,
which is crazy because Disney's a huge company.
And so Bob Iger mentioned this on CNBC.
He was like, look, investors already know a large portion of our operating income comes from ESPN.
If the ESPN bet initiative is successful, they will see that operating income grow.
And so he's basically saying, we don't need to tell you the numbers.
Just look at the data on the earnings call, which is fine.
That's a fair point, right? But it's going to have to reflect that,
right? So if Disney's next earnings call, the ESPN side, the sports operations do not reflect
a meaningful increase in revenue or net income, then you'll know that this was sort of a flop
launch, right? And in that case, Penn will get crushed. So that's the risk you're operating
with on this one. and that's why it's
you know not a super high weighted name for me but i i i don't know the chart still looks good
it's hard for me to imagine that there haven't been at least a couple million downloads at least
a couple million bets placed it would be hard for me to imagine that um and maybe i'm wrong but yeah
that's that's jenny remains the highest weighted
name in my sports media basket and then the two small weighted names are the pen and fubo because
they're speculative and they're very high risk because they both have binary events coming up
for pen it's disney's earnings and for fubo it's going to be that merger date in seven days you
know if that merger doesn't go through fubo is going to go down like 50%. It's very, very risky.
So people should know that. And they should also know that about PEN. If the numbers are bad,
that stock's going to go down 15%, 20% very rapidly. That's why I have them weighted small,
because I know the risk's high. I'm willing to risk a half percent or 1% of the portfolio on
them. What's up, Evan? I do personally think these prediction markets are an existential threat right now.
And one of two things are going to happen.
Either because they're able to operate in Texas, in a lot of states, that all this stuff isn't because they're working on a loophole.
It's a technically sweepstakes model or something like that.
I don't know.
To me, Genius Sports can still be a winner in that space
because they're providing the market data that people still need.
Penn, we'll see.
But I would be also curious on how ESPN is adopting those.
Kalshi and Polymarket and the Robinhood betting markets,
those are available in Texas, right?
Have you tried them?
Yeah, I have tried them. Yeah, I have tried them.
Yeah, I've tried them.
I'll try the betting market.
They're available here.
Yeah, they're cool.
I agree with you.
They are sort of an existential threat.
And there's a number of ways to approach this.
Either the gambling organizations go to Congress and lobby them,
which is probably what the first step is going to be.
And they're already doing that.
They're lobbying them. this is unsafe practice.
You've seen already comments out of,
I think it was from Massachusetts,
Senator, or who was it?
I don't know.
Somebody commented and said,
you know, they're filing a lawsuit
that these are unsafe betting platforms
because they don't show risk properly, blah, blah, blah.
They had like a whole fucking thing on it. Um, they're going to try the regulatory standpoint. If that
doesn't work and they can't get the platforms banned, then they're going to attempt to acquire
them probably. And I don't know what the value, do you know what the valuations are for those
prediction markets? Um, I saw $10 billion for one of them
and $5 billion for the other.
Yeah.
So, yeah, they're getting pretty big rapidly.
And if they're going to pull the trigger
on an attempted acquisition,
I mean, what's DraftKings market cap today?
$21 billion?
It's a tough acquisition.
It's a tough acquisition. What's Fl acquisition what's flutter out i think it would
be for drafting them to add it i mean look how quickly robin hood added flutter could buy them
flutter could buy kashi for 50 billion market cap i mean what the what the purpose of buying it
would be to get the user acquisition would be the same purpose of facebook acquiring instagram
for the users For the users.
Well, the users.
Because to me, that's a separate platform.
It's an anti-competitive acquisition, right?
Yeah, yeah.
We're on the same thought.
I just think it's too easy.
Yeah, you would need the volume.
Because I think it'd be too easy to just add it to what they already have.
So it would have to be they buy
calci and then integrate it in the drafting spot yes yeah now that would be the only way they would
really be able to send it off i still think the holy grail is when whoever partners with like
youtube tv for example and you have my betting account live on the sidebar the bottom of my
screen while i'm watching the game i i think
that's the holy grail for sports betting whenever that happens yeah who was it fubo i think had that
idea like a few years back and it just kind of never went anywhere yeah because then you what
you'll have is you'll essentially have these platforms which will have a peer-to-peer bettering
operation which will be the prediction markets and then they'll have a peer-to-book betting operation
which will be traditional betting and they'll offer them both that's if i was the ceo of flutter
i would be scrambling to acquire uh kalshi or polymarket be scrambling to put the money together
you have to do it because you don't know if the regulatory angle is going to work
have to do it because you don't know if the regulatory angle is going to work and you know
it's part of the reason why i prefer genius to a lot of these other uh sports betting plays and
why it's the highest way to win for me because they win either way if call she does want to
purport to offer live bets at some point which i don't know how that would work they'll have to
use genius data and even if they want to offer non-live bets and they want official nfl data to
make sure everything's accurate they'll still need the master feed so genius owns the master
feed through 2030 super bowl they win either way on the nfl side now there is risk to draft kings
pen flutter if they don't make a move here i don't think draft kings can pull the acquisition off
flutter can well the other side if, if they do acquire one of these
and then prediction markets comes under big scrutiny,
then they look like a dummy.
If they can just spend all that money on them
and then it turns out they can't be doing that
with all the sports stuff or whatever's going on,
I guess there's a slight risk to that acquisition too.
Yeah, there's a risk both ways, right?
Because let's say you say,
I'm going to wait for regulatory scrutiny to come down and it doesn't. Now the valuations of those companies go
up by 30 or 40%, right? Because I also think sports betting is not legal in Texas. I don't
think it's legal in California. I think Florida has one app you're allowed to use. A lot of the
biggest markets, they have not been able to penetrate so how just how the
sports books are the incumbents in a state like new york calci might end up being the incumbent
in a state like texas if it keeps going this way yeah it may be that that the states that can't
but here's my other thing i also think those states are more likely to initiate regulatory
scrutiny like if you're a Texas lawmaker,
it's against the spirit of law. It's against the spirit of law. You could argue that easily.
Yeah. Yeah. You could say, look, we don't allow sports betting. And now these guys have found a
loophole. Right. And if you're Texas or if you're any of the Southern, like, you know,
states or any of the Bible Belt states, like you're going to be like, no, fuck, no, we don't
want to allow that. We don't even have casinos in this, in this state. Like, no way are we going
to allow that? And they'll easily crush those. So I actually think the markets in which they are
most likely to be incumbents are actually the markets in which they're most likely to face
regulatory scrutiny. That's the complicated part of this equation. And like this happens in a lot
of industries and a competitor emerges, a disruptive competitor equation. And like this happens in a lot of industries and a competitor
emerges, a disruptive competitor emerges, and then the legacy players bet on regulators killing it
for them. And in many cases they're wrong, right? In many cases they just get supplanted. And then
the valuations of those companies get to the point where they, they can't meaningfully acquire them anymore. That's a bigger risk, right?
If we find out that these peer-to-peer betting operations can't be banned,
that lawmakers can't find a meaningful way in the letter of the law to ban them,
then the risk goes off of those.
The overhead risk gets removed from poly market and call sheet.
And what happens to their private market valuation?
Still, it's skyrocket, right?
Because now then people will be like, oh my God, regulators can't stop these guys.
They're legal in every state and they can do sports betting too.
On top of betting on everything else, like they become instantly more valuable.
And then on top of that, what happens to the
gambling stocks, they go down, right? So if you're fluttered today, you're like, I'm sitting at a 50
billion mark gap, Kalshi sitting at a 10 billion mark gap, I can acquire them today. But if
regulatory scrutiny doesn't come down the way I think it does, my market cap falls to 35,
Kalshi goes up to 20, I can no longer acquire them. You know, now that options aren't even on the table.
So if I was fluttered today, I would buy call sheet.
I would buy them at a market premium today and pray that regulators don't
shoot it down.
I think you're going to have some nasty legal battles over a lot of this
stuff.
I think you're going to run into the antitrust as well.
I guess the sports betting continues to grow. And then you have certain states that like Florida,
I believe only allows Seminole and there's some other ones that, you know, basically they
withheld out forever. And then, you know, enough public pressure was like, okay, well, if we're
going to do it, we'll do it with like one of our local only.
And you have to go through this.
And I think that's going to come eventually that it's going to come under a
massive legal battle, which then comes to the state's rights.
I think it could get really ugly.
Yeah, I agree. There'll be, there'll be a big legal battle around it,
but here's the thing. If you're Flutter and you're like, OK, there's a risk to the sports betting aspect of prediction markets.
That doesn't mean there's risk to prediction markets entirely.
Like if you're Flutter, there's still an accretive business to saying we're going to offer betting on non-sports things now through the prediction markets where odds makers can't meaningfully make odds right
so if you're flutter you're like okay let's say the sports betting thing does get shot down and
we buy call sheet okay we still have a betting market now for other things on our platform
which is accretive so yeah you might lose net net on the value of the acquisition maybe you buy it
for 10 billion and ends up only being accretive for 5 billion to the business but it's not as bad of a hit as opposed to waiting and then seeing call she
grow into a 20 or 30 billion dollar company and supply i wonder yeah i wonder if this turns into
more of like a nice cboe not quite cboe but more of an exchange coming in and buying something like
this or an amazon more like the like the real world kind of prediction nature of it.
Apple can buy anything and everything we want.
I don't know who said that.
No, that's what I'm saying.
Apple or Amazon, what if they buy it?
Yeah.
They're in sports already.
I think sports betting
is the wrong way to frame this.
And prediction markets on anything in the world or whatever
gets a lot of companies more excited about the same product.
I feel like the word betting kind of puts you in a specific box.
Yeah, that's right.
Prediction sounds better.
Educated PVP.
Prediction sounds better in whatever semantics of the word.
But we already know just from Robinhood's data that 98% of prediction markets are sports.
Yeah, what I would say is that at this point, we know that the Mag7 have basically a free ticket to do whatever they want.
They're buying anything and everything.
Amazon's in healthcare, pharmacy, pharmacy grocery no one's stopping them apples you know in sports media movies
cell phones uh fucking microsoft's and everything like these guys are just in everything microsoft
bought activision like we like the regulators are just allowing the mag 7 to just own the world
the regulators don't give a fuck. Let's be clear about that.
Yeah, there have been some bumps in the road for Google and others with regulators,
but net, net, they've let the Mag-7
buy whatever they want, whenever they want.
People thought the Microsoft Activision
thing was going to get blocked.
People thought the Amazon launch of their healthcare
was going to get blocked.
People thought all these things were going to get blocked,
and they didn't.
And regulators are clearly, in my view,
putting a green flag up saying, if you're the mag seven, you basically own
America anyway, so you can do whatever you want. So under that assumption, I don't think it's
unreasonable to think that these guys are candidates to buy those prediction markets
as well. And just be like, you know what? Now you can bet on anything you want on Amazon,
you know, and you get $5 a month free and betting with prime or something.
I don't fucking know.
Like the, the, these are, I think prime acquisition targets because they're major disruptors and
they're still cheap in a relative basis.
If somebody came to call, she was like, we'll give you 20 billion, you know, maybe call
she wouldn't take it, but you know, maybe they would, you know, I'd double their current
private market valuation.
So you have to make the attempt, I think.
You have to.
All right, hear me out.
Sports betting prop firm.
That's the peak.
Sports betting prop firm.
Oh, my God.
That would be market top, dude.
I'd be out.
We got a sports betting problem.
We'll give you money to sports bet.
Alright, I think we're at a good spot here.
Great space today, as always.
Evan, any last words of wisdom from you?
Did all of our teams lose this weekend?
Just, yes, rough times uh it's okay i was look there's this open ai oracle soft bank data center thing going around right now about project stargate um this whole lithium america's thing
did you guys talk about that we didn't mention it but yeah yeah u.s government is reportedly
seeking to buy a 10 equity equity stake in Lithium Americas.
Kind of in that MP materials vein, it was up 70% in after hours.
I know Stock Talk, we've, long-time fans have heard a rant or two about Lithium at some points on the space.
Yeah, I used to be in a lot of these names. I don't own any of them anymore, but I used to own one.
This was a part of another company, and they spun it off into the Lithium America.
Yeah, this was one I used to own in size back in the day.
Haven't owned it for a long, long time.
But yeah, they had a very valuable asset in Tacker Pass,
and the government looks like they want to get it rolling.
So that's another jump here in those names.
And I expect probably most of these will run in sympathy tomorrow, too, behind it.
You know, the administration.
Yeah, the idea that – so we knew that the MP Materials deal wasn't going to be the only one.
I think they even talked about what they were looking at, and this just kind of goes credence into that.
The Intel one didn't seem to be a part of that thing.
This one seems to be like a continuation, I would say, where the Intel felt more like a one-off.
This one feels like a part of the plan.
How many government investments are we going to end up getting?
A lot more, I think.
How many are going to actually happen is a good question, too.
Yeah, that's a good question.
I'm just curious.
You said I see a lot of people drawing the comparisons, if you will,
to what China does and some of that.
I mean, did you see the rare metal stocks today in a weak market?
I mean, Nova Minerals was up 15%.
United States Antimony was up 13%.
Energy Fuels, UUU, which is my name, was up 7%.
USAR was up 11%. Royalty Management, my name, was up seven. USAR was up 11.
Royalty Management, RMCO, was up three and a half.
Neocorp was up two and a half.
Rare metals names were strong today in a weak market.
MP Materials was also green.
I think the administration is coming for these names.
I think they're coming for these names.
I think they're coming for these names.
And the reason is pretty simple.
And the reason is pretty simple.
I don't blame them because we know that China has one pain point for us.
In these negotiations, it has been discovered even more so, which is that we cannot allow China to run the world when it comes to rare earths.
We just can't allow it.
Because not only are we susceptible to it,
our allies are susceptible to it.
China can push that pain point whenever they want.
You know, if we don't comply, if we try to pressure them,
they can push that pain point.
And that puts everything at a halt.
It puts aerospace and defense at a halt.
It puts nuclear at a halt.
It puts all the cutting-edge industries, semiconductors.
You need rare metals for all of this. And China controls basically the global
supply. There's a lot of unrefined rare metals in some of our allies' nations, like Australia,
some South American partners, some European partners. There's a lot of unprocessed rare
earth, but the refining infrastructure just doesn't exist. In the United States, it exists
with only a handful of companies.
There's only a handful of really valuable strategic assets in the United States.
Several of them are publicly traded.
I've talked about several of them.
USAR, Energy Fuels is my favorite, obviously.
I think the White Mesa Mill is maybe the most valuable rare earth asset in the country.
That's why I continue to own energy fuels but neocorp nb uh mp materials you know aspi they're getting into rare metals now as of yesterday perpetual resources they have
a golden antimony mine um critical minerals critical metals sorry crm ml uh united states
antimony there's a lot of ways to get exposure to rare earths, some less developed than others,
some more commercially ready than others. But the real key here is refinement, right? And that's
where I think investor focus should be. And I think it's part of the reason why Energy Fuels
has done so well, right? It's a double in a month and, you know, 3x in three months.
I think the reason that's there and the volumes there is because people know the white mesa mill offers that refinement capacity for heavy rare earths specifically which are the
most important choke point for us so i think if you have a focus on commercial ready heavy rare
earths i think that's where the administration is going to be focused as well and it makes sense to
dump money on this because we have to solve this problem you know not a not a lot of people are fans of like government intervention or government stimulus,
but you need it in this space because we need to build the infrastructure fast, very fast.
And there's a handful of companies that can take that money and expand existing operations that are already commercially viable.
commercially viable. And that's what we need to do as a country. Forget about the stocks. We need
And that's what we need to do as a country.
Forget about the stocks.
to do that as a country to prevent ourselves from being held hostage on rare earths. And the
administration recognizes that. And I think it's one of the big positives that this administration
has done, which is try to really get the ball rolling on rare earths and nuclear domestically.
And they've done a good job. they are they are moving fast these companies
are getting the permitting they need the companies are getting the licensing they need they're getting
the grant issuances they need and they're getting them fast i mean this is this cycle of government
policy has really been only in effect for about four months i mean i know the administration's
been in for the entire year but this cycle of policy has really only been in effect for four
months and things are moving and that's why the valuations are moving, too, because people know the timelines are being accelerated and capacity expansions are on the horizon for a lot of these companies.
So I think rare metals is a must own area, in my opinion, and it remains one even after this monster move, which is why I haven't been a seller in my rare metals names.
metals names. You know, one of them that I own that hasn't run like crazy, unlike energy fuels
is Materion, which is the only integrated producer of beryllium in the Western Hemisphere, still a
very quiet sock. We got into the mid 90s prior to earnings, had a big earnings gap up by about 10
or 12 percent, had a nice consolidation the past few weeks, broke that consolidative range in the
last couple of days and is now pulling back cleanly into the 9 EMA. This is a name primed for more upside as well, in my opinion, and I continue to own it.
And, you know, it's not a parabolic mover, unlike energy fuels and still trading very cheaply at
just one time sales, 1.2 times sales. So there's a lot of opportunities out there, even in the hot
themes that haven't run as much. And people just need to look and be cognizant of it.
You know, you hear rare metals or you hear nuclear in this environment and your first instinct is going to be, well, everything's run and it's too late.
I mean, it's not true.
You know, look at energy fuels just this week.
Even though it's run, it's gone insane.
You know, look at a lot of these rare earth names that we're consolidating
for a few weeks that are running again this week.
In the nuclear side, I mean, sure, look at LEU these last two weeks,
which is arguably the leading name and ripped to new highs in these last two weeks.
HOND, which is a name that was neglected in the nuclear space, pre-merger SPAC,
caught a crazy bid these last four days, jumped from like the 12s to the 15, 16, 17, 18 range.
So there are names that haven't run that are in the best thematics in the market
that have either consolidated for a long period or have been neglected for whatever reason that
the market will come for as these themes remain hot. And you just have to know how to position
yourself. And if you're already in a high conviction name that you already have exposure,
then your job's even easier. All you need to do is chill and hold that high conviction exposure,
which is what I've been doing for the better part of the last couple of months.
It's been working very well.
So, you know, these these industries like nuclear and uranium are not losing their catalyst rich environments.
They're actually just gaining more catalysts and more tailwinds quarter by quarter.
New policy information is coming out.
So, you know know don't run
away before there's a reason to run away these stocks will tell you when to run away and it's
not going to be from one day of bad price action it'll be from multiple days of bad price action
weekly and monthly breakdowns that's what you need to watch for that's when you'll know in the stopping all right well we also had uh trump basically go off on nato today and pal tell us
that we're in a bubble again so it's been a good day yeah i will uh i did say that i like that
comment earlier this morning got a little bit little bit of selling because of that. Thank you, Powell.
Yeah, it was kind of the same thing he said last Wednesday,
but he just openly brought it up again, reiterated it.
He said it last year, too.
Touche.
He said it last year twice, I think.
I think at the start of the year last year and the middle of the year last year,
he said stock valuations are kind of high.
Well, they're higher now.
And they tend to just keep going higher. start of the year last year, in the middle of your last year, you said stock valuations are kind of high. Well, they're higher now, you know,
and they tend to just keep going higher and eventually there'll be a
correction and then they'll reverse and they'll go higher and there'll be
another correction or crash and then they'll reverse and then they'll go
higher.
So stocks work guys,
zoom out,
look at the 50 year chart of the S&P 500.
Boom.
I think we'll end it on that right there.
Appreciate everyone tuning in.
Make sure you follow all the great speakers that have been up here on stage.
My two great co-hosts, as always, and this host account, Stocks on Spaces, every day,
3 to whenever we finish, p.m. Eastern, and Monday through Thursday.
We'll be back tomorrow, 3 p.m.
Hope everyone has a great rest of their night.
Appreciate you guys. .
