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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Aug. 26, 2025 Duration: 2:43:00Space Recording
Full Transcription
All right, all right.
Good afternoon.
Good afternoon.
Slow starts in space.
This takes a couple seconds for people to start to funnel in.
So we'll give them a second.
But I hope everybody is having a good Tuesday.
Tuesday, Tuesday.
My portfolio right now is up about 0.4%. NVIDIA is up about 1.3, showing some relative strength there.
Where is SPY and QQQ?
QQQ is up about 0.2%.
VOO, SPY, same, are right around there. So a slightly
green day. I know Ethereum and all those names have been going up and down and cryptos had itself
quite the interesting trading session so far. Boeing showing a little bit of relative performance.
Let's see what on my watch list. We're going to hear Stock Talk talk about this one today.
LEU is the best performing name on the watch list that I have.
And the worst performing name on the watch list I have is NVO.
And Lyft as well, actually. Lyft is doing a little rough today.
All over the place intro. I'm not normally the intro guy.
Normally that's Emp. But again, Emp had a kid, so he'll be back at some point.
For now, you are stuck with me being a host.
I hope everyone is excited.
We have an earnings or two after the close,
so definitely be looking out for that.
Okta and MongoDB.
Obviously, you've heard everyone talk about NVIDIA earnings coming up tomorrow,
so we know that's going to happen.
But there is a name or two that people are watching and caring about uh today
let's uh let's start the spaces off with mr wolfie i feel like mike you start this year you're you're
two on time where you start the spaces off every time uh so we love the uh you know the being on
time but but wolfie i'm gonna i'm gonna start it over off with you today how are you doing sir
good i bet you guys?
I'm doing well. I'm doing well. I've been making some moves in the market.
What did you do?
Well, based on some of the conversations yesterday, you might not approve of the move that I have.
I've been adding a good little chunk to BM&R.
I'm making that into the other position.
Actually, Tom Lee's on as we speak, I'm told he is he did say 3 p.m eastern
so maybe he'll give us a little bit of a move here it's not that bad of a setup it's again it's like
in a downtrend it's right it's 20 days it's make or break you know with crypto falling like it was
or with eth especially falling like it was falling yesterday while we were talking you know there was potential for
follow through to the 50 day maybe if they got you know wild with it but it held the 20 day
not a bad setup i you know i i'm more active than you are so for me i'll i'll buy it if it breaks
out but it's not a bad setup um i just don't like trading them until I see the break or the flush.
Go ahead.
Sorry to interrupt you.
No, well, to be fair, I was interrupting you.
So my, I did also DJ into some calls, 54 strike this week.
I bought them earlier when they were.
For BMNR?
Yeah.
What were they going for?
My average cost is a dollar eight now i i rode through this
last little like hey it was 50 cents or whatever so yeah i bought earlier this morning yeah no
again if it you know it's uh i'll post it it's in a tight it's like in a very tight uh downtrend
and if it just breaks out then you know you could possibly see upside to 60 or so
maybe more if you're lucky i'm pulling for you though um but you know what i did is i bought a
little bit of a an apple nibble oh yes how about that look at us if you guys didn't know apple
sent out the invites for their iphone event today the iphone event is going to
be september 9th yeah so you know i just i bought a starter it's nothing crazy just so i can keep
track of it same kind of thing it's uh in a downtrend that started august 14th and you know
liquidated down to its 225 224 level give or take and you know it's pressed right up against
that downtrend if it breaks out we'll see what happens but yeah the setup they set out their
thing today setups there obviously i think most things are going to fall into the hands of nvidia
um so you know we'll see how that one plays out tomorrow
I do think that
the story this morning
about
we were talking about yesterday
whether or not you agree with it is another story
but the US government
is probably going to start investing
into other companies
outside of the ones that were listed
basically said Lockheed Martin's next.
What does Lockheed Martin do today?
I didn't look at what it's been doing since the morning.
It's up today.
It's up.
I think it's had its best day quite some time,
but it was up today.
I don't think that it's strictly a Lockheed thing.
I think if you, whether they take investment or not i think they're they
they're going to use some of these companies as negotiating tips i don't think that they
i think they have been um the one that comes to mind is boeing boeing's up and again this
this happened when we were talking yesterday but they they had the 100 orders from Korea yesterday.
The stock didn't really move that much on the back of it yesterday.
It did have that initial pop, but it didn't really follow through.
But today it's up very nicely. It's up 3% on the back of it.
But I do think a stock or a company like Boeing would be or could be potentially used as bargaining chips for some of these deals that they make.
Also, you know, I've been, I know StockDoc's in it as well, but I've been in HII, you know, since the middle of May.
I've lightened up pretty substantially in the last couple of days i saw a headline saying that the
united states is going to use some sort of manufacturing from uh korea on some of their
their ship stuff i don't know you know how true or how exact it'll be but the stock's up pretty
nicely i think it's up like 40 so it's not a bad place to take take profits at least some off the table for me so i did that
uh outside of that i pretty much oh yeah fcx fcx is another name i think could be
um you know could be one of those industries or one of those targets for
uh that wouldn't quote government investment not just not justCS, but just copper in general, rare earths as well.
I've trimmed some of the UUUU, and then today I trimmed some of the FCS.
I mentioned it on the space the day that I took it.
It was when we had that Trump headline.
I think it was, let me see here, it was July 30th. We had a Trump headline,
stock sold off to 38. It's up pretty nicely. I took a stop, got fortunate. So sold quite a bit
today of that. Outside of that, I didn't really do too much. I'm trying to just,
until I see something, take it. I will say there's a couple of earnings.
There's Okta today and there's Mongo.
Mongo's been quite the violent mover
the last two earnings fronts.
It's flip a coin.
Two quarters ago, they gapped up.
Last quarter, they gapped down pretty...
No, this is Okta, excuse me.
Gapped up pretty aggressively.
And then last quarter, they gapped down.
Same deal with Mongoongo but in reverse
um they gapped down two quarters ago and then they gapped up really nicely uh the last one
but the the reason i bring it up is the implied volatility on something like mongo right now
it's pretty aggressive so you know to give you context, the stock's trading at 214, weekly 160s.
So that's, you know, puts expiring this Friday, three days from now, are trading, I think, north of a dollar.
So, you know, the premium's pretty aggressive, in my opinion, there.
We'll see what comes of it.
But I think it could give an opportunity for some sort of premium sell event um and they obviously i mean this is sam name so i wish he was here he could
he could touch up on it but uh they obviously um you know set up quite a bit of that that software
stack um so we'll see how they play on the back of it. The other one I was paying attention to is
Lily. They had late stage results for their oral obesity and diabetes drug and stocks up really
nicely. It's up 35 bucks, give or take today. You know, I think on the Lily front, I think it could
have room to that 750 level which would effectively be where
it broke down from um and then from from that point i'm looking to uh possibly you know fade
it given the move that it's just have not nothing crazy but um you know that's it was previously in
a range from call it 690 720 depending on uh how extreme it got to the 200 day so if it got to the
200 day you're looking at like 780 give or take but i think this time around given the the the
sell-off that it had early in august on the back of earnings could be a situation where that that
bar gets ratcheted down to the 50 day so that's kind of like what i'm paying attention to on that front outside of that paying attention some of these bank names really good setups um just on a technical
basis and obviously they've got a little bit of a sweet spot uh for the for the next few months
assuming that you get the break cuts so um paying attention to some of these names like uh goldman sachs looks
ready to break out jp morgan same thing uh starting to break out uh bac is pressing into like a pretty
crucial 50 level haven't seen that level since uh 2022 so you know it's a very violent like large
what about the any regional banks too yeah i like I like some of the regionals. Like I like, uh, what is it called? Uh, PN PNC. That one's, that one's usually my
favorite to trade. Uh, it's a very quality bank. It's a regional, uh, but not really a regional.
Uh, it's very, very big for businesses as well. So I kind of like, I kind of like the setup there,
but I'm just, you know, just in general general you just trying to capture that delta before they
actually do the rate cuts because i feel like a lot of these banks trade ahead of the actual
you know event and then you know given you know you know given how the yields will respond to
that sort of thing that's kind of how the banks trade uh but the real i think the real move
happens in advance in anticipation or in advance of it and
then second thing is if they do do some sort of deregulation on a banking front which some have
speculated given that they'll want banks to hold more treasuries or or loosen up some of the
regulations for them to hold treasuries I you know that could be a tail end but for me it's mostly just trying to capture the you know
trying to capture the delta between now and um you know the next uh the next cut or the cutting
cycle so yeah so outside of that just trying to pay attention try to stay um nimble for lack of a
better word um ahead of ahead of uh some of these earnings the next couple of days.
I don't think... Go ahead.
One of the advantages
that also those banks,
fintech, whatever have,
we all talk about this AI theme
and what efficiencies it will lead to.
I think a different one
that they have is the crypto area.
And there's a lot of dumb stuff in crypto,
but also there's stable coins
and whatever that I think that there is for a
lot of these financial institutions you know them adopting it can lead to x percentage more
efficiencies that maybe some other sectors don't necessarily necessarily have so that's like they're
they're getting another positive dynamic so there there are efficiencies for sure um but you know
i've been hosting some spaces like you know aftermarket last few weeks you
were live for like eight hours last night i saw yeah so um had some people in the audience that
were on there you know shout out to them but you know some of the you know some of the commentary
like it's pretty you know you get to hear some unique thoughts but one of the commentaries that
i hadn't thought of is that part of the so for me the tokenization thing that that could be coming is
just like you know they're going to iron it out before it actually arrives that's that's kind of
the way that i viewed it but one of the ways that uh was brought to my attention and it's actually
kind of a interesting thought is uh tokenization could be a way to kind of skirt some of this
regulation and you know if you could get if you could drive
profitability without you know finding yourself in a position where um you're you're they come
after you for regulatory reasons you know that's that's pretty good to the bottom line uh the second
and the second uh aspect of it is that there is an actual tokenization thing coming down the pike
so obviously when that comes that comes um and then you know just kind of moving sideways and similar but different um you know this
this uh events you know pricing thing that they've got going and some of these you know robin hood
polymark etc you know that's just a different form of you know for lack of a better word gambling right and so
if you if you take a look at how some of these gambling stocks have performed with you know some
of these events uh you know events driven things and then also with football fancy football right
around the corner they've they've pretty much been resilient and uh you know have outperformed in the last few
days last last few weeks to listen like draft kings pressing back up against that 50 level
give or take win resorts which is kind of win is kind of interesting because it's kind of a tell
on the international as well because they've got a very big stronghold in macau um you know that
one that one's pressed right up against that 120 level breaking out.
There's another one that I, you know, I put out a note on that I thought was interesting, and it's RSI.
If you just pull up a chart on RSI, it's pressed right up against, like, on a weekly basis, right up against a really, you know, big level for them. The all-time high on the stock sits at like $25 or $26.
It's pressed right up against $21.5.
RSI is a Chicago-based digital casino, gambling, whatever.
But one of the interesting things about RSI is they have a strong footing in Latin America.
a strong footing in Latin America.
And some of the bid, in my opinion,
on the back of that stock comes because of the NFL
returning to Brazil this year with the Chiefs and the Chargers.
So it could be a tailwind.
It could just be the core business is good.
It could just be that people were an addicted country to gambling.
One thing I like about the prediction markets versus the betting markets i'm not saying this is anything about
i don't know what it means for the stocks the companies better but the prediction markets being
player versus player instead of betting markets where it's player versus the house
like i don't know i feel like them not being a part being on the other side of my bet
makes it into something where like i don't hate them and it's i just feel more sustainable to me
to me the the business of being on the other side of your customers is not a very good sustainable
business sure um i mean all it takes is one right so yeah no i i think uh i mean i'll leave that to
you because i don't personally as a degenerateler, sometimes I don't care who I'm betting it for.
If they give me the action, they give me the action.
But I could see that side.
But the thing I think that's important is that there is an appetite for that risk.
And I think at some point that appetite might dry if you have a softening consumer.
But I think that'll be one of the tells you know um either either it's going to get full degen until they blow out or or
it'll be like you know softening people have to pay for things over time so we'll see how that
happens yeah probably full degen yeah we'll see how that happens the last one I wanted to mention
is just tssi uh tssi is this I mentioned it i think last week it it sold off about 58 percent
into its 200 day uh stocks held its 200 day now for about a week uh generally trades as a derivative
to like dell or some of these data centers um you know on an earnings front i like i like the setup
uh for lack of better term trade right into a trend line, right into 200-day.
Really easy setup.
Risk-rewards, a couple bucks to the downside,
and then possibly a rip back to the mid-20s, low-20s.
I'll stop there so I don't hog it too much.
I've been going for about eight minutes.
Thanks for the shout, though.
I do have a question on the DraftKings stuff,
and this could be for anyone
and a serious question can you use like a firm and buy now pay later on draft kings and that stuff
i have no idea it's a good question it's a good question it feels like uh it feels like it's
coming all right yeah definitely feel free to jump in on any parts of the conversation um as always
wolfie i appreciate you.
And as we're going into it, if you guys down below have any stocks or tickers or any thoughts on the stories,
feel free to throw that in the comment section down below.
We got Jason saying, every time I cash speaks, I listen.
There you go.
Someone also wants us to look at MDB.
They basically put it in a wedge and then put a big upside candle.
So I did mention MDB.
MDB has a downtrend if you want technical setup.
Look at Tuesday, December 24th, or Tuesday, December 10th, 2024,
and then just draw a line from there to February to July.
It's in a downtrend.
There's also a gap fill right where it's stalled out at that 247, 250 level.
And then you've got effectively the 100-day that basically makes or breaks this uptrend that it's been in.
It's hanging right on that uptrend but you know below that below that
100 day at 200 give or take there's not really much support till you get to about 180.
So yeah it's in a pretty pretty sizable wedge if you want to look at it that way it's in a
downtrend if you want to look at it that way but I think the important part in the last two
quarters one quarter gap down massively one quarter gap up nicely so I think positioning was
offsides two times and if you take a look at the options market which is that's the point I was
trying to make earlier particularly the options market they've kind of the options markets kind
of uh accounted for you know that that imbalance that's happened the last two quarters so I think
if you're trying to play the options front I you, I'd be shocked if you got like a violent move that's greater than some of this option pricing. But that's what makes
markets. We'll see what happens. I'm looking through some of the comments. Sorry, I'm getting
distracted. Someone commented, Intel, Tesla, AppLovin. Lovin's having a fantastic day today.
app loving loving's having a fantastic day today interesting adhd moment i apologize
stock talk you weren't on the spaces yesterday we'll go to the the full the full thing the
floor and how you doing though leu is the number one stock on my watch let's say now yeah yeah yeah
baby number one stock baby let's go lift is the worst so we'll bounce bounce out a tiny bit but
a great week though of performance it needs to cool tiny bit. Lyft had a great week, though, of performance.
It needs to cool off a little bit.
They had a great week.
I mean, we got along in the 1350s.
Lyft got to the 17-plus range, broke that 200-week moving average,
pulled back a little bit today.
That's fine.
No concerning action on Lyft.
In fact, I would say my portfolio has astonished me this week with the performance.
Yesterday, the markets were very red off the rip.
Pretty much every index was red off the open.
That rotation trade was dead yesterday morning.
And I had 10 positions green in the morning and 11 positions green at the close.
In a bloodbath of a market yesterday.
And so, I mean, today, again, I think I have nine green
today into the close. And then LEU, which is my biggest position, up like 13%. UUUU,
which is my fifth biggest position, was up 18% as of the morning. It was going to close up 13%.
I'll get into the details of why those ran so much later on, but I've been tweeting a lot about
both of them. So hopefully some people picked up those cues. LEU, we were looking for a pullback into 161, which was the 21-week moving average.
It basically perfectly balanced off that area.
So it's gone from 160s back to the 190s in like four or five sessions, which has been a beautiful rebound.
That's exactly what you want to see off those pullback spots.
So, yeah, I remain full-size and centrist you know
people still asking me like why aren't you selling why aren't you selling it's 200 bucks a share
I think the news just keeps getting I want to ask you what's the rarity premium on the you
but you kind of like to talk about you watch my workshop or what uh yeah listen I'm a lurker
I'm a lurker okay all right Evan lurker. What's it on UUU?
Why are we still holding?
Why you guys are sitting here? The banks are going nuts.
I haven't seen any news.
Good or bad?
Good.
It's a bull market.
Trump's saying a bunch of stuff.
He might have said something.
A lot of words. Banks give up.
What happened with UUU?
What's the rarity there?
Why are we, like, what's the...
We've heard you talk about LE a little bit.
Well, I'll explain that.
The rarity is actually why the stock's up today, too.
So I'll explain that kind of in a dual-faceted way.
When I first started talking about UUU back in July,
when the stock was in the 650s,
that's when I talked about it to you guys on these spaces, too.
It's also when I tweeted the name out on its monthly breakout
that it had on July 11th.
That's when we really started looking at it.
It got along again at the 850s and 60s
at the beginning of August, August 1st.
So what happened with you, you used this,
and this is also their rarity premium that you were asking about.
So my thesis when I first got into it was that it was a dual-theme exposure.
What a dual-theme exposure means, like, you get exposure to two themes. Pretty simple.
They have the only conventional uranium mill in the United States at White Mesa,
and they also have a pilot program for heavy rare earths at their White Mesa mill.
And that pilot program, in my view, made them the only legitimate rare earths at their white Mesa mill and that pilot program
in my view made them the only legitimate rare earth play in the country now
there are other rare earth plays but they are very very very far behind the
wheel when it comes to commercialization and you'd have to speculate to know when
any of them are gonna get to commercialization I'm talking about
names like light bridge and ASPI which are well good performing stocks I'm not knocking how they've performed it perform well
but it's really hard to get a grasp on how they're gonna do anyway energy fuels last week released
the PR actually four days ago but it's like end of last week at least PR saying that they had achieved 99.9% purity of dysprosium oxide,
which is a critical rare earth metal, along with terbium.
And they said, although it's a pilot program, they're confident in their purities.
And they believe it makes them the only producer of heavy rare earths in the entire contiguous
United States.
And that is true.
And it is a 2.9 billion market cap even after today's move. So, you know, do what you will
with that information. But that's why I still own it. I think centrist energy and energy fuels are
two extremely valuable strategic national resources. And I think that's why the stocks
are performing how they're performing. And people are missing the forest for the trees. You know, they people are looking too much at the
valuations of these companies saying, well, they don't have the earnings power to justify their
market caps. You're talking about $3 billion market caps for critical strategic national
assets. That's to me not, you know, it's not a, uh, an insane premium to be paying.
So yeah, I remain fully long on both of those names. Um, you, you, you had a brutal pullback
like four, three or four sessions ago when it, uh, dropped 18% and a lot of people got shaken
out during that. Imagine mostly the technical traders that were looking at it got shaken out
during that pullback. But if you looked at it on the weekly during that minus 18 day it actually had a perfect pullback
on the weekly into the weekly 90 ma like to the penny so if you're focused on the daily you're
probably like this is a brutal chart breaking candle and if you focus on the weekly you would
have been like oh that's interesting and so it bounced perfectly off that 850 area and is now
you're in over 12 today so that's i mean that's a hell of a move in you know a perfectly off that 850 area and is now in over 12 today.
So that's a hell of a move in a week from the 850 lows for energy fuels.
So, yeah, I think this is a big move today.
I don't blame people for taking some profits into this, but I think this is just a further validation of the story.
Basically, the White Mesa Mill is now the only place in the country where rare earths are actually being produced.
There's again, there's a lot of other stocks out there that are almost there or going to be there in 2028 or might get there if they have the right supply chain set up, you know, in the next five
years. But these guys are already doing it. They just did it at 99.9% purity. That is a big
fucking deal in a country where we have no rare earth
production at all, especially heavy rare earths. That's really where we're lacking, right? Heavy
rare earths used for magnets, other applications. We don't have any of them. So it's a big deal.
I think what they've achieved at White Mesa is a big deal. I think the stock was up today
appropriately. In fact, I'm surprised it wasn't even up a little bit more or that it even faded
from top, but still going to close up 12 or 13 percent.
But, yeah, it's a big, big, big deal for energy fuels.
And I'm not surprised the stock is up 40 or 50 percent off the lows because of that.
It should be, in my view, because, again, it's it has effectively become the only legitimate rare earth exposure.
Legitimate. There are others that are speculative, but yeah. And Centris, that stock's up today because they signed a very, very interesting deal with Korea Electric,
their subsidiary, Korea Hydro and Power.
They signed a deal. It's an MOU.
But the interesting thing about it is that Lutnik was personally attending the signing.
Now, I don't know what your guys' experience is,
but in my experience of falling geopolitics and markets, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce does not
attend signings of memorandums of understanding for $3 billion companies. In fact, if I had to
put it on a scale of probability, I think I've never seen that, like ever.
Forget about the Commerce Secretary.
Anybody on the presidential cabinet going to an MOU signing for a $3 billion company?
I mean, like, come on, right?
Unless you're implying something, which I think they are.
And if you look at the PR from Centris, not only did Centris explicitly mention that he was there, which is odd,
And centrist explicitly mentioned that he was there, which is odd.
But they mentioned at the end of the PR that, hey, it's important to note that this MOU is only effective contingent on the understanding that centrist will receive government funding from the U.S. government to expand its centrifuge capacity.
Why would they say that at the end of the PR after directly saying Lutnik was there?
end of the PR after directly saying Lutnick was there. I mean, I think if you're not an idiot,
I mean, I think if you're not an idiot, you could put two and two together.
you could put two and two together. I'm pretty sure the U.S. government is going to support
an expansion of their centrifuge capacity. And I also think when LEU sold off from the 250s down
to the 160s on that offering, they raised several hundred million on selling the convertible debt.
People were wondering why they were
raising it. And because there was no specific cause stated in the release. And to me, it's
obvious. I mean, they'll only be raising money for one thing, and that's expansion of capacity.
So I think all the stars are lining up there. And I think that's why the stock responded the
way it did today. In fact, when that PR came out on Centris Energy yesterday, when I posted it on Twitter yesterday afternoon,
the stock was up like 1% in aftermarket yesterday, right? Because people just don't understand the
story. And then today, when the market bell rang, the people that do know the Centris story said,
holy shit, this is a big fucking deal. And they bid up the stock 13%. So unknowing the story is
important, you know? And even with energy fuels,
if you had known the story, you were probably very unlikely to get shaken out on that minus 17%
daily candle, which probably shook out a lot of people. And, you know, now the stock's 50%
higher from there. So yeah, knowing the stuff you own, knowing it well will help you manage
it effectively. And that's why I've been able to stay in these stocks as they've doubled and tripled and why I'm still holding them
because I have an idea in mind
for what they should do and where they should go.
And I think Centris and Energy are both going a lot higher
because they're actual beneficiaries of this theme
and not just hype pre-revenue garbage.
So yeah, there's a little rant on Centris and Energy Fuels.
We got anyone else up here who are watching those ones?
I know Wolfie, you were mentioning the trade you were taking there on UUU.
Yeah, so I have September 1910 calls on UUU.
You know, it's a monster win.
There's not really much i could add i think i think the only
thing i change the only thing i could add not change uh obviously if you know the story that's
that's ideal but if you don't know the story right like let's say you're not nuanced enough to know
you know everything about it you know they they tipped their hand a few weeks ago when i think it was a month and a half
ago now when they were talking about the mp deal and they're saying i think we were on we were
literally on this space and mp uh talked about the headline where they're saying that like more
rare earth deals similar to that you know were coming um and more deals like that were coming so
you know they they kind of tipped their hand deals like that were coming. So, you know, they, they kind
of tipped their hand. There's the other one. I forget the other one that, that everybody likes
to trade and end in an MR. I think, I don't remember it, but I, I trade, I own you, you, you,
you. Um, I do think that there's a potential for another, you know, since we're always talking
about, or since I'm always talking about um you know which companies
are they going to be interested in investing in next this is one of them right so um or these
are some of them right so it's it's one of those things you it's ideal to know the the entire story
100 but if you don't you can just dumb it down to an lcd um excuse me me. The last thing, you know, I don't disagree
that it's a...
I don't disagree with StockTalk saying, you know,
it's kind of a tell
when Lutnick is there.
The only devil's
advocate comment you could make, though, is
you know, he's been at...
He was with Intel's CEO the other
day, right? Yeah, Intel's
$100 billion company. Centres is a $3 billion company.
That was my point.
Sure.
Sure.
I hear you.
I'm not,
not again,
not,
not disagreeing.
The comment about Intel is people view Intel as like,
you know,
dead in the,
in the arms race.
So the,
the,
it doesn't,
that doesn't,
mean that,
that,
you know,
any of the commentaries is,
uh, inaccurate or anything like that.
It's just if you're playing devil's advocate, you could just play devil's advocate saying he's going to talk his book,
which is actually, if you're an investor, a good thing for you. So, yeah, good day.
I'm in the UUU trade as well.
Solid.
Can't complain.
Yeah, no, I didn't mean it.
I didn't mean it to say like he shouldn't,
he isn't active or proactive.
He's, he has been proactive.
You're right.
He's met with a lot of CEOs.
I just find it odd that he had the time to personally attend an MOU for a
tiny smid cap company.
You know, I hear you.
I don't, I don't disagree.
A hundred% weird.
But the only comment that I'm adding
if you're playing devil's advocate is
it's weird until you realize
it's Lutnick
and he could be talking this book.
That's what I hope.
And that's a good thing for you, right?
I'm just saying it's not as weird
given the character, right?
It seems that's who he is.
I get what you're saying.
He's more willing to talk his book.
That's true.
But, you know, like I said, I hope that they are talking their book because, you know, if the U.S. government were to make a $5 billion investment into centrist energy to expand centrifuge capacity, which I think is a very real possibility.
I think is a very real possibility.
Or if the U.S. government were to go to Korea Electric,
who already just signed the MOU,
and Lutnik was there at the MOU signing,
and we saw how they were acting with the Korean officials,
South Korean officials today,
South Korean officials were like children around them.
You know, I mean, South Korea needs us.
So I get the sentiment of like, you know, kissing ass,
but South Korea was really kissing ass. And I don't know if people were watching the video of
like South Korean officials, like me with US officials, they were like, almost like,
in reverence of them. But anyway, South Korea is clearly playing, playing nice. And this
administration has, over the course of the last several deals, made this habit of saying, they go to these countries, they ask to negotiate, and then
they tell one of their big national companies, right, which for Korea, they have a lot of them,
but Korea Electric is one of them. They tell them, okay, you make a commitment to the United States
as a way of avoiding national tariffs, right? We saw this with TSM. We saw this with a bunch of companies from different countries who are saying, you know, we'll step up to the United States as a way of avoiding national tariffs, right? We saw this with TSM.
We saw this with a bunch of companies from different countries who are saying, you know,
we'll step up to the plate and make a 50 or $100 billion investment in the United States. And
you take that as a gesture on behalf of our nation and give us lower tariffs. Like that's
sort of been the game that's been played outside of the other concessions that have been made.
So now, you know, with Korea, all the administration has to say is, OK, make a five billion dollar investment into domestic enrichment capacity.
And, you know, at a significant market premium, take a 10 percent stake or whatever and help us expand capacity domestically.
And in return, you know, that'll
be part of your deal for softening the tariffs. It seems like that's the road we're headed down
with this stuff. And I would not be surprised to see Korea Electric make that kind of deal
and say, you know what, we're going to commit a couple of billion dollars. We're going to take
a minor stake. We're going to do it at market premium. And, you know, we're investing in
America. We're helping America build enrichment capacity. And they sell that to Trump. Like,
that would not surprise me in any way, shape or form. I'm not saying that's exactly what's
going to happen, but something along those lines would not surprise me in any way, shape or form.
So I think the administration has been clear. The tone has been clear.
clear the tone has been clear they are willing to either invest in or directly support national
strategic assets they view intel as one i think that's silly i don't think intel is a national
strategic asset but okay i guess they think intel is one so intel's countered in that bucket. But, you know, Centris is actually
one.
I mean, they're the only enricher
in the country.
I mean, Intel doesn't even make their own chips
and they want to make everybody else's chips. I keep laughing
at this. I'm with you. Give me a break.
Yeah, I mean, we're just saving
Intel because they fly an American flag.
That's it. Because they give all their chips
to Taiwan Semi because they can't even make them themselves so what do we expect them to do with
this i i would do i mean taiwan semi should just say you know what give us zero tariffs and we'll
change the name of the company to american because it it basically is in america i mean we've talked
about this 70 of sales to america like if the American customers disappeared, the TSM has no one to sell to. So
yeah, I mean, I don't know. I think they're going to prop up more strategic assets and
they're going to do it in an obvious and explicit way. And I think there's money to be made. And so
that's why I continue to own Centris and Energy Fuels. And I'm up huge, by the way,
on both positions, huge, but I still haven't sold into them.
Maybe I'll regret that on a pullback.
Maybe I won't.
I haven't regretted holding them so far.
I could have sold Centris in the 130s, in the 140s, in the 150s.
I could have sold it, but I didn't.
And I haven't regretted that so far.
Same thing with energy fuels.
I could have sold that in the 9s, the 10s, the 11s.
I could have sold it today in the 12s or the 13s.
I didn't.
And I don't think I'm going regret it but we'll see uh there's just some uh news that uh unh criminal probe widens beyond
medicare into optum rx and doctor payments and the stock fell basically three percent intraday
peak to trough looks like it's uh recovering a bit here, but that was a pretty big drop.
If anyone was wondering
why it dropped.
Yep, interesting. UNH has
become a very washed one, so
we've got it in there. Wolfie, you got your hand up?
Yeah, I'm going to piggyback on
the comment on Korea.
So, you know,
I mentioned it. So
was the play for shipbuilding, right?
And it's like, multiple people
have been in it. I was in it from like the 180s.
I still
have a position, but it's like sizably
reduced, right?
the headline came out the other day saying that
the Trump administration is interested in buying the ships from South Korea.
So if you piggyback off of the comment he just made on the South Korea front, like maybe it's a quid pro quo thing, it seems like where there's smoke, there's fire.
So it's not a large leap. This is not just one thing where Korea has kind of been rumored.
And I think that's also interesting because it kind of moves off of, you know, wholly being one sided in Southeast Asia with Taiwan.
And so, you know, I don't disagree with what he said.
And I think the other read-through is just to look where there's other, you know, other avenues where South Korea has kind of stepped up.
And then if you really want to nuance it, you can then just go, you know, third order and just say what other things could we get from there, right?
And then just kind of do that back of envelope stuff.
And then the last
thing i want to say was i was i was i couldn't remember the ticker the tick the other ticker
that people trade outside of you you which i own is uh usar so i just wanted to throw that out there
yeah there are a few rare earth material plays that are out there that are gaining a lot of
there that are gaining a lot of catalysts lately and it was actually pretty interesting because i
catalysts lately and it was actually interesting because i thought
thought i thought the story behind you know mp usar like you were mentioning i think uam y and idr
um they've been seeing quite a pump i actually i pulled up the unity performance they're all like
triple digits basically and i don't know maybe something's really getting started because that
narrative is like hey we need these to to build robotics and EVs and stuff.
And it's like, oh, okay, story's changing.
But Yu Yu Yu Yu, I don't even know how many users I just said, to be honest.
But that one's definitely very high in the momentum.
Can I talk about something real quick on that, on the options front?
So just real quick, if you like, so I trade options, so I'm in the options on that one.
If you're in options on that stuff and it expands like that, it doesn't suit you to hold, you know, those deep in the money calls on something like this on a short term basis.
So in a situation like that, you want to roll up, right?
This is not talking about the leaps or anything like that, but just on a short-term basis, you want to capture that IV
expansion. Mike, you got any more thoughts you want to throw into the conversation? I know you
chimed in once or twice. What stocks are standing out to you?
You know, I think this market is... Michael?
Can you hear me?
Yeah, no, I hear you.
Sorry.
Sometimes they just say stuff.
Can't help it.
You know, I think this market is in...
It's August.
Late August.
It's the end of summer.
And it's trading very well for the end of summer.
I mean, today, very choppy action, but the banks just took off.
OKLO had a nice move today. Tesla whipped around all day long, but just popped the highs today,
up to 350 area. Apple, you know, just under 230 for break static and run. Same thing with Amazon,
another one to watch at the 230 level. It really just remains a market of names right now and just
trying to find momentum. It was hard to find momentum today. There was not
a lot of momentum to be found out there most of the day. But the market, the general move is up.
These dips were getting on the morning. They're being brought back really quickly. The market had
every reason to dump today with, oh, I'm saying he's going to fire Cook. It was barely down.
The Fed just came out, by the way, when we're on here and said that uh they will abide
by any court decision so basically they're they're saying game on there uh you know we're not we're
not acknowledging your firing of cook i mean it just you pick the names you like and you go from
there and you just you know look and just avoid stuff that's not in play i mean one of the bigger
nvidia tomorrow just about two bucks off the all-time high the biggest disappointment was probably amd today got
that nice upgrade from truest for the big price target raise and popped on the instance of the
open and then immediately dumped and had nothing to go on so yeah all good here i think right just
a normal market and a normal lenda summer waiting on nvidia yeah i don't think anyone mentioned or i don't know i
i came in a little bit late but uh oklo got that big upgrade from bank of america yeah uh 92 dollars
the price target i mean stock talk probably knows bank of america their things tend to stick
um that was initiated coverage at a buy so I don't know where these bullish arguments for,
maybe I don't know.
Maybe I'm just not well-informed, but goddamn.
I mean, that's a pretty hefty price target
for a pre-revenue company.
But who knows, man?
Who knows?
Momentum's on its side.
Analysts are on its side.
Everything's got every ingredient to continue running
as long as the market stays bullish.
It was actually pretty interesting because when i post that this morning a lot of people
saying like oh but bank of america is bearish on hims you know look how that turned out it's like
well yeah i know but when you have the entire nuclear theme rallying an entire sector it just
takes one of those big upgrades and push it higher okay him it's kind of its own niche sort of i mean you
don't really have any pure play uh pharmaceutical online companies out there that can basically move
up the entire sector with hymns it's just got a massive short covering also we haven't seen any
analyst perspective change on that from a dramatic perspective so it really has no catalyst to go up
but speaking of hymns i think that's like on the 200 day, right? So it could just take a catalyst to bring that one back up there.
Premium is pretty high, was considering selling some puts on it. But I don't know that there are
much better places to put your money in when isn't specifically focused on a company versus
an entire macro situation or a sector situation, bring a stock
down and then betting on the leader per se.
So I think when it comes to a lot of this stuff, and as you're saying, the market doesn't
have a reason to go down.
And we were seeing yesterday the reaction that Gold had with Cook being fired.
We saw Bitcoin drop and know because it's going
to be perceived as inflation running away and so on at the same time you look at today we're getting
a bit of a recovery here but i agree with you and videos tomorrow i i think it's just basically
chopped with uh money being rotated from one area to another in the market it's really just
gonna be eyes on that i mean we got mongodb reporting after
hours today octa reporting after hours today not really any big market movers in my perspective
might move some software stocks but then again you know mongodb has a mongodb problem in my
opinion not so much a software problem so we'll continue to see with that one also i don't think
anyone mentioned but crowd check and snowflake reporting tomorrow as well like this is not going
to be a quiet day for me tomorrow.
Along with NVIDIA,
of course, which is where everyone's looking at.
It's the third Super Bowl of the whole year,
so pretty interesting to be listening to that one tomorrow.
Yeah, I think Monitif,
who was listening,
is down there.
Basically,
anytime we talk about NVIDIA and any semiconductors and anything in general, who was listening, who is down there. He, I am, you know, basically every,
anytime we talk about my,
uh, Nvidia and any semiconductors and anything in general,
I want to go to,
to Moniton.
Hey,
so maybe he'll join us up here.
We could talk about that,
but again,
we'll have plenty of time tomorrow.
You watching these earnings after the close,
Sam?
MongoDB,
Okta?
Yeah,
just MongoDB.
If you want to join in after,
you can give some thought to them too.
Actually, yes, Dox and I were going to probably say a lot with the, uh, with the earnings position. Go ahead, man. yeah just after you can give some thoughts on them to actually yes stocks
and I were could probably say a lot with the with the earnings patient go ahead
man okay awesome don't give me don't give me the whole numbers dump I want you
can be the implied moves and kind of how they've gone past a couple ones okay I
wanted to talk about BMN are verb it also later but I'm talking about BMN are
I'm excited about that.
But for the earnings today, we have Okta and MongoDB.
That's pretty much what everybody cares about.
Our implied move on MongoDB is pretty big.
It's a $29.31 move or 13.68%.
On Okta, we see a $9.47 move or 10.37%.
You could see all the previous reactions and the changes but uh what
are what are the previous reactions like generalized like for mongo db for monger 14
that's fat i mean it's better wolfie was saying it does have those big moves it does he's absolutely
right um you could see the previous reactions last one was 12.84 percent the previous the one after that was minus 26.95 percent minus 16.92 percent plus 18.34
percent and since the last report it's only up 7.22 percent um but we'll keep absolutely right
there and what about octa 10 is still a lot too octa's also got some big ones um last quarter is
minus 16.16 percent uh plus 24.27 percent uh plus 5.38% minus 17.64%.
And since the last quarter, it's down 27.35%.
Interesting.
Yeah, some pretty crazy earnings coming up,
but MongoDB is certainly going to be a big mover.
It always is.
Yeah, it's a big mover.
You know, what's actually really funny is that we're sitting,
what is it actually sitting at right now? I haven't checked, but i thought i saw it in the three tens yesterday um literally right smack where the earnings moves was yesterday went from 300s
all the way to the 330s and literally faded the whole thing off uh in the next few days and
actually went close to sub three sub 200s sorry i 200s. So it went from 200 to like 235
and then pulled back after a good earnings report.
I mean, I think the thing is undervalued
if it is pricing and the growth
that it's expected to see
based on earnings analyst expectations
for the next couple of years.
However, still not a profitable company
on the bottom line.
They are free cashflow positive,
but I think what the market is looking for is a continued acceleration of its Atlas DB offering, which is its cloud
native platform for MongoDB. The argument with Futurum equities that they're making is that
basically AI is going to cannibalize a lot of software and MongoDB isn't necessarily going
to be a beneficiary from that considering that it is an open source product.
So it puts a lot of questions with a lot of companies out there like, hey, why do we have to pay for this off the shelf solution?
Well, we could just take the open source and fork that repo and just basically build our own thing in-house, which a lot of companies actually do to save some money.
But also on top of that, MongoDB is a NoSQL database. Applications could be moving away from this type of architecture.
So you're saying MongoDB,
like just what's the open source part of it?
Like their underlying model?
MongoDB is an open source database.
So anyone can just download it online,
change the code as they feel and basically deploy it on their own.
Like they don't need to pay MongoDB
to deploy their own infrastructure
for MongoDB database.
It's basically a NoSQL database.
You have SQL databases,
which is more relational, organized,
and then you have unstructured data or NoSQL.
And they tend to have,
it's been very popular for decades.
And then companies are starting to move away from it
because they're moving more toward cloud solutions or cloud native solutions. And with that being said, you know, sometimes you
could be moving your application away from that dependency. Sometimes you don't need to use Mongo
DB. You could switch a different solution like AWS and Azure. They offer their own proprietary
solution for NoSQL databases. So I think that's what the underlying fear was for MongoDB being
that they're like literally more than 50% away from its highs.
I think it was like around 500 and something in 2023.
It has not even come close since then.
They did get close to the 400s.
But based on a valuation perspective, this thing is being re-rated at a low multiple and likely for a reason.
I'm not bearish MongoDB.
I do own a position in MongoDB, but I want to see that continued momentum as far as its Atlas DB cloud native product, because that is the high margin business.
And I think it's like around 60 to 70% of all the revenue in the company.
So as long as we see that continued momentum, that means margin expansion.
And that means re-acceleration, because that is growing at 26% as of last quarter.
The MongoDB revenue as a whole was like, I think it was around 22 to 24%.
So any acceleration in Atlas DB would mean a re-acceleration of the top line for MongoDB and hopefully, hopefully closer to our profitability.
So we'll see.
But again, it is directly competing with a lot of the cloud products out there.
So commentary is going to be pretty important in that one.
We've seen, we have seen like, seriously, we've seen this stock up like 10% after hours and then just give all those
gains away and go negative the next day.
So not surprised if we do see that type of action.
So I'd be pretty careful,
but you know,
it could be an option selling event.
So we'll see.
Yeah,
it will be an interesting one to watch. don't know my initial take i guess i i am skeptical
on a lot of things but initial take there is not yeah we'll see well let's let the numbers come out
but hey maybe me not being like oh i'm going uh fully into it makes me it makes it bullish so
watch it be up like 15 now 20 yeah i mean if paper gains is long it then it's probably going to go
up because that guy always seems to be hitting everything.
But yeah, there's also Okta as well, which is more on the privileged access management side, or identity security.
And there was news going around.
Well, not really around.
I mean, they already declared it, that Palo Alto was acquiring cybersecurity CyberArk.
I think it was like around a $24, billion dollar acquisition and make it one of the largest software
acquisitions in history, not the largest, but one of the largest.
And their earnings for Palo Alto were pretty good.
That being said, you know, it is a little bit different from Okta.
Okta did flip into profitability last quarter.
So if you see that continued momentum,
a stock could be pretty undervalued.
And they did get a price upgrade recently
from the analyst firm.
I forget the name of the analyst firm.
But Wall Street is definitely bullish in this name.
I think identity is probably going to be
a more important aspect
when it comes to cybersecurity.
But integrated identity security
is probably a lot more important
than just the self-managed solution.
So we'll see what happens with Okta.
It's the secondary leader
in terms of identity security behind the hyperscalers and behind CyberArk.
So I'm pretty bullish on that one into earnings.
I don't own it, though.
I'd rather own the leader.
And in this case, that would be Palo Alto since they're acquiring CyberArk.
All right.
Sorry.
While you were going there, I was working on my 52-week high post.
What is this EchoStar stock?
What's happening here whatever it is is up like 60 today oh it's the it's getting acquired by at&t okay all right we
can continue interesting i was like what the what's happening here octa mongo db earnings
coming up after the close according to the hub of the
earnings earnings hub 401 for octa 405 for mongo db okay that's a 23 billion dollar company
i never even heard of them before now oh it's you know it's not like
there's a lot of stocks like that that are actually pretty big you are you want me to find
i'm going to look at the company's market caps thing and find the largest stock that i think
you won't know or most people up here won't know are you going to say ui i think u.s stocks too i
won't i won't cheat too much uh while i'm doing that we got a couple minutes to the close stock
geek i see you're up here as well i don't know if you have any thoughts you want to add in earnings whatever or just in general yeah man you know I'm always good for some non consensus
stock ideas you know why not a why not a Taylor Swift engagement idea in all seriousness no i have been seeing this name brilliant being thrown around bl bl bl bl
sorry the b r l t it's um i actually just took a quick look at the financials um not not a terrible
financial picture there uh almost 100 million if this is moving off of that that's come on
what are we talking about no i know i know but But listen, we have seen some of these meme-ish names moving, right?
Even today.
Probably a little too small to talk about on here.
All right.
All right.
Well, I just wanted to throw that one out there as one that's moving today.
I mean, we are seeing some meme-style action in a few stocks still.
I mean, obviously, Open has been running this week, but you've also got people trying to
push up GoPro, even some weird option activity and good old Krispy Kreme. But Friday, so one of
the overlooked ones, I think, is Alibaba, which reports on Friday. And I've been noting, you know,
quietly strengthened Chinese stocks. You've seen some breakouts on NIO, breakouts on
UpFintech, Tiger, which is a stock I've owned off and on over the
last year or so. And so Alibaba, you know, kind of an interesting setup here with, you know,
them reporting earnings on Friday, the technicals on that chart have been improving. So I'm keeping
an eye there for a potential breakout trade over the next couple of months there on Alibaba. The cloud division is accelerating there, has accelerated over the last two quarters in terms of revenue growth.
So that obviously is being led by a lot of the AI stuff they're doing with Quinn, the Quinn models and everything.
Basically, it's like the Chinese mirror image of what's happening at AWS and Azure with AI workloads pushing up the
cloud division growth. So that's a cool story there. Pretty under-owned and hated as well
because Chinese stock and it trades for like 12 times earnings. Meanwhile, it's buying back a ton
of stock and even paying dividends through the ADS shares. So that's one I think that should be on
people's radars. It's quietly looking better and better and they report on friday so that's that's one i'm
i've got the pencil uh doing some work on so those are some those are some of the ones i'm watching
this week i piggyback off that taylor swift thing uh if you you know you actually, you don't have to pick
that one, but take a look at
diamond prices. They're at
20-year lows, right?
If you think that maybe
this could spark some sort
of revival
engagement.
It's lab-grown.
It is a scam.
Lab- grown diamonds,
they're the same thing.
Don't go in and get your,
fall for the trap
and pay 10x of it.
No, yeah.
Let's not be done.
Lab grown,
that is a mega theme.
Lab grown will continue
to take share from
traditional for a lot of
applications over the next
decade.
Like that's,
diamond prices are not.
I'm not,
I'm not getting into the
lab grown versus diamond.
My point, my point is, ask Bob if he fell into the lab grown versus diamond my point my point is gov if he fell for the track my point is my point is that take a look at
something like signet jewelers which has been in a range between 111 and 50 um the last time they
reported uh they had an upside surprise of 18 on revenue revenue, or 18% upside surprise on EPS,
and I think 2% on revenue.
They report on Tuesday.
So they report on Tuesday.
Setup's pretty nice.
Nice little cup and handle.
Trades at 88 as we speak.
If you're a believer in that this is going to spark engagements,
that might be one that benefits
What if
your case is that it's going to spark
a lot of breakups because
they're going to expect something that they're not going to get
so I don't know
maybe you could look at it the other way
I think the breakups
come after
the engagements
First you get the diamond trade,
and then you sell the diamond trade to buy the ice cream trade.
There you go.
So we're going to go long now, and then we'll go long Hershey's after maybe.
Market's about to close here.
Octus should be coming pretty much right after the close,
so we'll see on that one.
Big movers today.
Big movers is what we're saying,
which means they're both going to be up or down less than 1%.
Cool.
Beautiful close.
Market, beautiful close.
I don't know what's happening here,
but market just closed there.
Highs of the day.
As Mike was saying,
a market had every great reason to cry Fed independence and dump today.
But here we are, closing at the highs of the day.
I'm sure there's some stats of some new all-time
highs or something like that, or new all-time high clothing
prices.
Oh, I gotta reuse this meme.
Call
seek vendor payment delays.
Apparently, Cole's been
on a revenue decline for the last three years.
They're down 6% on that news
what stock? KSS
Kohl's
do they accept Kohl's cash?
$13, wow, did they do like a reverse stock split or something?
no, wow, it's really just been moving like that
they were just up a lot recently.
So they're just giving it back. Trader stock
probably. But I'll go there to return Amazon
stuff. I don't do it anymore, though.
That's one that I mentioned
on here, single digits.
If you didn't capitalize on 1A meme...
Octa earnings out, sorry.
In late July, it's on you.
Octa?
Initial move up is up 7%.
Sorry, I need to refresh.
What is this in after hours?
Up 6%.
Now we're coming down.
Maybe you're a couple ticks ahead of me.
Okta.
Okta is moving up after their earnings.
Get those numbers in front of me in a second.
MDB should be around 4.05 p.m. Eastern.
We'll have a couple minutes in between there.
I did interrupt you there, though.
I apologize.
Cole seeks an entertainment delays.
You're good.
I was just saying that it got memed late.
I mentioned it on these spaces in single digits.
Late July, it got memed and got all the way up to $20
So if you didn't capitalize on selling at that point
You're so well I got does revenue at 728 million and their EPS at 91 cents
Expected revenue was 711 million and expected EPS was 85 cents
That's a double beat nice let's see the stock market closing green mag 7 google and microsoft
closed red but rest green did you guys hear me take a screenshot right there does it like play
through heard a discord alert i didn't hear that but uh tesla broke 350 and i'm not on the close as well
definitely not a bearish close and like i was saying and like mike said there was
plenty of reasons for the market to want to be bearish today
um refreshing i'll let me see if we get any extra headlines normally the first five to
10 minutes after the close we can get at first 10 to, we can really get some interesting headlines, so you never know.
Sorry, getting this post up.
I rugged the spaces yesterday, by the way.
I really did ruin it, so that was my bad.
I apologize. That's everyone.
Okta, basically closer to even, like we were saying.
Now that we were mentioning how big of a mover it is,
that's going to be the one where it doesn't move much.
Okta, EPS was a beat.
Revenue was a beat.
Forward guidance.
Revenue expected next quarter around $729 million,
while she wanted $722 million, $723 million.
So forward revenue guidance above, forward EPS guidance slightly below.
At least on the next quarter.
The full year revenue and EPS are both above expectations.
So pretty decent forward guidance for Okta, actually.
Thanks for Okta, actually.
At least the first numbers you look at, not bad.
At least the first numbers you look at, not bad.
New York Stock Exchange short interest rose 3.1% to 18.53 billion shares out of mid-August.
Okta moving back up.
Yeah, okay.
We should be getting MongoDB out in a second or so here
and then once we do that we'll look around there and then we'll we'll throw it back to the panel
and start moving back around
do do do do
anything else moving in after there's a there's a xom headline uh exxon in secret talks to rejoin russia's oil i don't know how to pronounce that word
saclin oil project uh which i'm told is the deepest well in the world so that's kind of
going on behind the scenes while we're doing the russia thing yeah raymond put that they had a
conversation i'm seeing mongo dv Raymond put it in the comments down below.
There was something with them and Russia's largest company.
My guess is that's Gazprom.
I don't know.
MongoDB initial move is up 6%.
MDB is out.
Yeah, I see that post.
Rosneft or something.
Confidentially discussed returning to Russia post Rosneft or something confidentially discussed returning to research Rosnes Wall Street Journal
intriguing I don't think they would just do that I got MongoDB EPS at $1, expected 66 cents.
I have their revenue at $591.402 million,
and their expected revenue is $553.57 million.
So a double beat there.
That thing is ripping.
Nice.
MongoDB up 14% right now.
Damn, I got to do the refresh.
It's probably more, actually, isn't it?
13%.
15, yeah.
Now, my move was counting
the intraday versus
the extra.
Let's see. Okta.
Hold on.
I want to see the forward guidance here for MongoDB.
It's probably going to gonna be strong given this move
i have guidance revenue 587 to 592 million expected is 590 so that's 19 20 growth 2026
guidance 2.34 billion 2.36 that's 20 growth um i don't know if that beat it or not for the yeah you really need to
yeah the guidance is kind of what matters seeing now oh they uh mongodb raises its adjusted eps
guidance from two dollars and 94 cents to three dollars and twelve cents and this is for the
fiscal year up to three dollars and64 to $3.73.
So they raise their EPS guidance from like, let's say $3, $3.02, up to like $3.70.
That's quite a big move.
Sales guidance increase up from like, let's say 2.26, 2.27 billion up to 2.35.
Yeah, this is actually quite the
forward guidance increase for MongoDB.
Strong forward guidance. MDB. Good job.
20% in after hours.
That's a beater
of that implied move.
Not really.
IV was at 84%. What was it it i thought we were talking like 12 is what i was seeing
is what was saying 12 no it was bigger than that i thought 14 he says like 13.68
that still does beat it but it was expected to be crazy. Yeah, but on the options front,
the implied volatility is at 83%.
So the calls are
barely green. Wait, what do you
see the total open interest out there?
What do I see the total open interest
in the calls? Give me a second. Let me walk back to my desk.
Because
my number comes from
222,789. So yours could be more recent than mine it's totally
possible all right that is most of the headlines we are expecting for the after hours so you can
look that up and then we can start to shift back to the panel of the conversation.
It needs to be a Kirk.
And then joining us up here.
So that's good.
And then obviously we have a big day tomorrow with the NVIDIA earnings.
Something we're excited about.
We also have CrowdStrike and Snow.
ANF, that has been a trade maybe played throughout our economy.
Wow, Poles reports earnings tomorrow morning, too.
Interesting.
Yeah, a lot going on.
I don't know if you saw that, Wolfie, and then we can keep going.
Honestly, we can just keep moving around.
Saw what?
That number we were kind of talking about or whatever it was,
but it's not right it's not that deep.
Kirk, why don't we bring you into the conversation here?
If you have any thoughts on any of the earnings we've been,
we've been talking about here, the MongoDB or Okta.
I don't know if those are ones that you watch or just any general thoughts
on the conversation.
Yeah. You know, I, I don't trade any of those.
I own some of the tech stocks in a basket.
The one that I thought I'd chime in for, the reason I raised my hand, is you mentioned
EchoStar.
And EchoStar is instrumental in my AST Space Mobile thesis.
So EchoStar is Charlie Ergen's company.
You may not recognize EchoStar, but you probably recognize Boost Mobile, DISH, and Sling.
but you probably recognize Boost Mobile, Dish, and Sling.
That's what else they own, along with HughesNet that competes with Starlink.
The transaction to sell Spectrum today to AT&T, not the whole company, just some Spectrum,
they're going to get $23 billion in cash sometime next year.
EchoStar's total debt is $25 billion.
So essentially, they're turning this into a debt-free company
with ownership of Boost Mobile,
which is basically the low-cost version of AT&T Cellular,
Dish, Sling, and HughesNet,
which is, again, a competitor to Starlink.
If any of those businesses do well,
the company is probably undervalued even at the jump in price today.
DISH almost got sold to DirecTV last year for $9 billion.
So the current market cap and the value of DISH are fairly similar
because DISH,
there is going to be an assumption of debt
of about $9 billion.
So the company is probably fair valued right now for DISH.
I think you cut out.
Okay, yeah, you cut out for a second there,
but you're good.
Okay, so the company is probably fair valued
based on what DISH is worth.
You're kind of getting Boost Mobile,ing and huesnet for free you know so it's up a lot after hours i i don't know what kind of buyers those are if it's just traders or if some institutions
are getting in there i took a teeny tiny starter position at the end of June. If you take a look at the chart, there was kind of a shelf.
So I got a half a percent position at 25.
I wish it was half my portfolio now.
How does this affect AST Space Mobile, which I've talked about about 10 times?
AT&T bought all this spectrum, and it's instrumental in delivering the satellite to sell signal.
So it really strengthens AST Space Mobile's position to deliver their service, which they had fortified themselves with buying some Spectrum.
So suddenly AST Space Mobile has an incredibly good spectrum position that's going to
be hard for anybody else to replicate. So I think that buy the dips on AST Space Mobile is still the
name of the game. I have sold a couple covered calls on the rips just because I've been up so
much and I wanted to capture some of the gain on the volatility.
But I do think you want to buy the dips on AST Space Mobile because AT&T having all this spectrum and being one of their big partners is going to be a big deal in generating gigantic revenue for them, I think, about a year out when all their satellites were up in the air.
I see Wall Street Engine listening. He put out a headline on his page.
Elon Musk, this might be what you just said, I'm sorry.
Elon Musk, Starlink, and T-Mobile have both
looked at EchoStars, Spectrum, and
AT&T agreed to buy the $23 billion
chunk. FCC has pushed Charlie Egan
to sell unused airwaves.
Long valued $30 billion.
It's from semaphore.
Interesting.
Yeah.
It's, you know, I think the interesting thing here is if Echo Star gives back a lot, you
know, again, I don't know who's been buying here, but if it gives back a lot of these
gains today, the value investors are going to start looking at this and going, well,
gee whiz, it's a debt-free company, essentially.
What is Boost Mobile, Dish, Sling, and Hughes net worth?
I don't know the answer to that, but I think it's probably well over $10 billion.
This could suddenly be an S&P 500 company, you know, shooting up to $30 billion.
So, you know, it might be a pretty good value creator.
Just, you know, that's a lot of cash, right?
They basically flipped the spectrum for an enormous profit.
So we'll see.
I do think ASC SpaceMobile is the bigger deal, though.
I still can't see that not being a 50 to 100 billion
dollar company a couple of years out.
By the way, there is another headline now. U.S. President Trump has reportedly told advisors
that he wants to move quickly to announce a nominee to replace Lisa Cook on the U.S.
Board of Governors. That's a Wall Street Journal article that's
circulating right now. MongoDB also holding onto most of it up 20%. I appreciate you for
joining in, Kirk, as always. Can I ask a question? What do folks think the impact,
you know, the Fed gets ripped on all the time. I usually tell people, you really ought to be ripping on Congress for the last 45 years. But what do people think about what's going on with the pressure on the Fed?
You know, if you don't like the way the Fed has run things, you know, being too loose
and printing money in the past, what do you think is coming with a trump controlled fed you know and what
do you think that does is it uh i've been calling it the trump and dump it's my hashtag on on x do
you think that we get a huge pump and then a crash i mean what happens if yeah I wonder what happens when we get a dovish Fed, right? Yeah.
What?
I imagine.
It's going to be something, you know?
I'm being sarcastic.
Yeah, well, when the Fed cuts into a recession, there's usually a gigantic correction.
So I think one of the questions we have to ask is,
are we at the edge of a recession?
I don't know the answer to that.
I think it's just mixed and chocky. I mean, but the Fed almost always cuts into a recession
when a recession is on the table.
I mean, that's, by principle,
the Fed is just mechanically usually late
because, as you know,
the economic weakness doesn't show up in the data
in a timely enough fashion, right?
We have backward data
that is informing active rate decisions. That's just a broken mechanism. And so, yeah, the Fed
is generally late and we shouldn't expect it to be any different this time. But I mean,
we talked about this before, I'll say it again. I don't think it's as hyperbolic an issue as people are making it out to be because the Fed has traditionally always been dovish as a body.
It has prioritized growth over inflation for all of modern history.
So are we going to go back to maybe getting a little bit more of a dovish Fed than we have had over the last few years?
Sure, but the Fed has been dovish, right? Like, I mean, does anyone look at the course of interest
rates over the last 25 years and think the Fed has been like meaningfully hawkish for any meaningful
amount of time? I don't. I don't think the Fed's ever been hawkish for any meaningful amount of
time outside of, again, in the modern era, outside of maybe like the 70s and you know we've had instances but yeah the feds dubbish monetary policy in general
globally is dubbish right because politicians like to print money yeah that's the bigger problem
right that's that's the problem like it's not the It's not Congress. It's just this idea of like and we talked about this in detail when we first talked about this issue like several months ago. But it's this principle of like you can't win votes without favors and you can't fulfill favors without dollars.
That's as simple as it is.
And, you know, the alternatives to that sort of democracy aren't great either.
You know, you look at authoritarian regimes in the East, like that's an alternative, but that's not a great alternative.
So I don't know. I'm not an expert at founding new political systems, but obviously there are problems on both sides.
And the problem we've been struggling with is that American democratic politics is chock full of money that is used to fulfill favors. And it's really hard to get that money out of the system of Doge, like we had all this performative stuff
and spending went up across the board.
In fact, the one thing that they did have,
I don't want to say unilateral control,
but the one thing that the executive does have the most ability to influence
is defense spending.
And we just signed $150 billion supplementary package
to a trillion dollar defense
budget, the biggest of all time. So like, there's no spending cuts coming, whether they're
Republicans or Democrats of any kind. So that's the problem, right? And I don't want to defend
the Fed either. The Fed has not been great. But again, that's by design of the Fed's mechanism
and less by fault of the people who sat in the chairs.
Right.
Like, I think people want to, like, look at the Fed as an organism and say, well, the Fed chairs are to blame for the failures of monetary policy in the last 25 years.
And I would say, sure, you can take that view.
But it's, in my view, a much more mature and practical thing to say it's actually a function
of the mechanics of the body and
the idea that it is an active interest rate controlling body that must react to lagging
data.
Like, they don't have a choice.
They're reacting to lagging inflationary data and they're reacting to lagging labor
data as well.
And so they're going to be late unless they preemptively decide to do something. But that's not data dependent. Right. If you preemptively
decide to do something before the data shows it. Well, that's the palism saying over and over and
over again, we're data dependent. If he decides to say, well, the labor market might crack in
November, so I'm going to cut now. That's not really a data dependent decision making process.
So, yeah, I think people
like to blame the people sitting in the seats. And this goes for both the Fed and the president
and the, you know, leader of the house and people like to blame these people. But this is an overall
problem with politics in general is the idea of like money is needed to fulfill favors to people who fill the coffers of politicians, and that is just the way of the world.
And I don't know how to fix it, but it's not going to change.
I think you put that very well.
be that Congress and the presidency have done a poor job for multiple decades and the Fed
tries to work within that framework and screws up too.
So I don't know what we, I mean, I think we have to start with voting in better people,
but I don't know if better people run, right?
So I mean, better people tend to just go out and make their money.
So I don't know the solution either.
But when I look at this over multiple cycles and, you know, I've been studying this a while.
I think for us as investors, I don't know if we get a small correction or bear market between now and the new Fed.
So I'll just say next year is going to be the new Fed.
But I do think that if they get looser, meaningfully looser,
and my hashtag QE2026 really happens,
we could get a blow off top that is so irrational and unrealistic that the collapse afterward makes the global financial crisis look like a warmup.
So I'm trying to ride this the best I can as a defensive investor, right?
Because I'm regulated.
I have to be defensive.
My personal account is, you know, regulated, I have to be defensive. My personal
account is, you know, five to 12 stocks and some Bitcoin. So, but in my regulated accounts,
where I have to follow prudent man rules and I get audited every three years,
I have to take a look at this. And I throw this out here because I think just people have to think about it this way.
I have to say, okay, what if the macro rolls over on me and it happens really fast?
And it has been happening faster since COVID than it did from COVID to the financial crisis and from the financial crisis to dot-com and then before dot-com
to 1981 and then before 1981, right? So, I mean, there's been different eras and each era seems to
move faster and sharper. And then when the spikes happen, they tend to set new records to the upside,
which we're seeing in all the ratios. And then when they collapse,
if there's not fast intervention, and I wonder with the nature of government right now,
if the next intervention will be fast, you know, or will it be a stutter step or what will happen?
I just think people in an era where there's leverage on leverage on leverage,
right? We have peak FINRA margins. We have leveraged ETF, single day options, and all kinds
of people using options. I mean, you really are getting leverage on leverage on leverage
in some cases. What do those corrections look like on an event, which I don't know that you can speculate on,
but you can try to maintain at least some of your portfolio to be more defensive in nature.
So I just want people to think about this because if we get a correction, a spike and a collapse,
or a head and shoulders, which is what I've kind of been identifying over the next, you know,
last five years for the next five years, got a giant head and shoulders.
The volatility could be pretty wicked.
And if you're a good trader, like most of you guys are better traders than me.
If you're a good trader, you should be able to make a lot of money.
But you have to always be looking for tomorrow's narrative because today's narrative is already out of date.
And that's actually where I've been making my money is, okay, what are they going to say next month?
Right?
I don't care what they're saying right now.
What are they going to say next month?
And what's going on at the Fed is unprecedented.
I don't know what the outcome is going to be.
I don't like it, but I don't like much of it to begin with.
So it's hard to know, right?
What I am trying to avoid is I don't want to normalize bad behavior by anyone in government.
And I want to be prepared if they try to pick my pocket again.
And you know that they're always trying to pick your pocket. So, you know, I just, I want people
to have these more complex thought processes, right? These thought exercises, because when it
moves, it's going to move. And most of the people listening are very good at the technical tools.
I have said over and over again to my largely Xer and Boomer clients and subscribers that I think the millennials and, you know, we'll see the Gen Z.
I suppose they'll probably follow in the footsteps.
I think you guys use the technical tools better than the boomers ever did, right?
And the Xers are trying to keep up with you too.
So, you know, if there's a move, I expect the traders to do what you're doing, StockDoc.
I think they'll watch the moving averages.
And as their rules get violated, they'll sell, right?
They're not going to hold on and be stubborn.
And so that means that if there's a move down or when there's a move down,
it could be fast and it could be deep.
I agree. It'll be faster. And, and, you know, I, I,
I think we talked about this in detail when we haven't had cancer up here in a while, but Cantor was up here a few months ago.
And we talked about this in a long space about it, just how the mechanics of markets have changed.
Right. I mean, I think the big the big factors I look to are household participation hitting new highs year after year after year that it doesn't tend to climb that way.
year after year after year that it doesn't tend to climb that way if you
look at the historical data there tends to be like three or four year periods
where we see a decline in retail household participation I'm talking
about percentage of households that own stocks for people that don't know what
I'm talking about you tend to see flatlining periods for four or five years
or even a decline over two or three years and now we've just seen it
ramping year after year after year. You're seeing millions of new retail accounts get open. You're seeing zero DT options hit 50 to 60% of total notional options value,
which is like probably the most insane statistic on the market. You know, that was 10 to 12%
prior to COVID. It's mind blowing. It's mind blowing. Yeah. So it's,
if volatility is picking up, leverage is picking up, the leverage is getting shorter and shorter dated every year.
Eventually, we'll probably have, you know, we already have zero DT contracts.
I wouldn't be surprised if eventually we have, like, first half session,
second half session contracts.
I wouldn't be surprised if that becomes a thing eventually,
especially as markets gravitate more towards being 24-hour traded
and tokenized and all that shit.
So, you know, know yeah you're right when the crash next crash does come it will probably be
insane and it'll probably be very very fast and yeah i don't disagree with that at all i mean
the amount of leverage that's in the system now and how short dated the leverage is that's the
biggest differentiator i think and the fact that there's higher retail participation than ever, like the leverage in the markets used to be
either mostly leverage on equity, or, you know, leveraged positions that were longer dated if
they were if they were using options to add that leverage. Now you're talking about people adding,
if they were using options to add that leverage.
Now you're talking about people adding, you know,
thousands of monthly calls on top of their positions,
or sometimes just that's the position outright naked, you know,
20% out of the money calls. Like that's just insane, you know,
but people make money on it.
So they're getting rewarded for doing it and they're doing it again and bigger
and bigger size.
And now you have institutions and fast money funds doing it and you have more institutions now trading in pre-market i think
than than typically at least in the last couple of years i feel like i've noticed that like way
higher volume on pre-market catalysts so all that stuff is picking up and yeah it'll it'll be brutal
when the music stops i don't know when the music's going to stop
though that that's for me the hardest part about markets has always been trying to predict when the
music's going to stop and i've done well without having to do that like kirk said i think if you
know what you're doing in terms of managing positions technically and you're you know a
seasoned trader or investor i think you'll do fine in those environments. You're going to give back profits. I mean, I give back profits all the time, right? It's just a matter
of recouping them. I just posted my performance chart again, my performance update. It's pinned
up in the nest, but you can see those big claps I had recently where I had these big slips and
drawdowns, certain positions getting hit. There was a moment where my year-to-day
performance drew down all the way to like 108 or 109%, you know, back up at 142% now.
But I had a big drawdown in some of my nuclear plays, right? Like Centris and, you know,
Centris fell from like 250s to 160s. I had UUU had that minus 18% day. There was a pullback in
Nebius. So like when all those things happen at the same time, you day. There was a pullback in Nebius.
So like when all those things happen at the same time, you can see a big portfolio pullback.
But if you keep your consistency, stay with your high conviction stuff like I have been, you know, you end up recouping performance over time.
So I think you can navigate pullbacks in individual stocks, pullbacks in the greater market, even a crash in the greater market if you're nimble.
But it is a scary proposition to think of because it probably will be a very, very fast unwind when it does happen. I mean,
people don't need to think back that far to think how quickly stocks can unwind. Like,
think about, you know, February 21st through April 9th. That was a brutal period of selling for stocks, right? Like basically a month and a half of just brutal selling.
You know, a lot of market leading stocks down 40 or 50 percent.
That wasn't even a crash, right?
That was just like a market correction.
So, yeah, be wary of the possibility.
You know, I say this all the time.
I'll say it again.
By virtue of being a market participant, you're accepting that risk.
You just have to live with it.
You live with the idea that the markets will crash cyclically
and that when they crash, you just have to be ready for it.
Ideally, you should have some dry powder for those moments.
If you're somebody that contributes to your account
on a yearly or monthly basis or whatever,
you should keep making those contributions
so that when that moment does come,
you're ready to buy the dip.
Stocks night, but it's not your hand up.
What's up?
My bad. I'm sorry.
I was mid-sweet.
I had a couple comments on something
we were talking about a while ago,
but I didn't know if you really wanted to open up.
Go for it.
We're just chatting.
Go for it.
So do you have any thoughts on BMNR?
Um, I don't own any of the treasury plays.
I mean, I get, I get the philosophy, like why people want to own them.
Like they think that they're, I guess people think they're supposed to trade at some premium
time to MNAV.
That doesn't make sense to me.
So I just don't really participate in them.
I've traded a few of them in the past.
Like I've traded some of the Bitcoin ones in the past.
I've traded MSTR in the past and MSSMLR and all those.
But I don't get the treasury play.
And, you know, I won't even be mad if those plays end up going 300%, 400% in front of
me because, you know, there's stocks I own that do that too.
You know, one thing that is different about BMNR than MSTR is Ethereum itself has like, you can stake it and get a natural yield.
So say Ethereum, it's paid on Ethereum, but it'd be having like a 200200 million net income right now BMNR this year if this is
where Ethereum was at for the year.
Are they staking it?
Yeah, they are staking it.
Oh, okay. So they're
using that to generate revenue.
Yeah, there is something
like it's just a little different than the
Bitcoin treasury ones.
And also something that's a little
different is the difference between
SBET and BMNR. SBET's
going the more debt and dilution approach, where BMNR so far has only gone dilution and not really
taken on debt. Yeah, I'm surprised. You're generally a little less speculative than me,
Evans. I'm surprised these names interest you. SBET's BMNR does. So I have not been able to really...
It's been difficult for me to stake a lot of the Ethereum
I've been holding for a while.
Just being in New York, there's just different platforms.
It's just annoying.
Just even that advantage, it's kind of...
I don't know. I've been considering it.
Truthfully, though, this is me, Stock Market News talking.
I have, you know, immediate conversation hit with him
a little bit of the day.
I've been changing up my portfolio a tiny bit
to get more towards a couple of these risky names,
which totally means it's a top, guys.
That's what I would say.
But yeah, so I've been changing up the portfolio a tiny bit.
We'll see.
Ravine is another name that I'm kind of excited about right now.
Yeah, I've been doing the opposite.
I haven't done much.
I'm just riding my positions.
I have a pretty tight book right now.
I think I have 16 spots.
I just really like everything.
I like all the charts.
I like all the stories.
I'm just in a comfortable position right now.
I'm just letting the portfolio work for me.
And on days like today, obviously, with Centris and Energy Fuels both ripping like 13% each, that carries the whole portfolio.
But not every day is like that.
You know, I think it's important to understand that performance with if you own a portfolio of stocks, right?
This isn't the case for people who like have different
strategies for me i just own individual stocks right like i don't have etf exposure or anything
so um from my perspective my performance comes in spurts like it comes in in periods where my names
you know rip to the upside and then they consolidate for a little
bit, right? Like, like Nebius hasn't done much in the past couple of weeks, right? But that doesn't
matter to me because I bought the stock at, you know, less than 24 bucks in May. So it's already
made, you know, it's already basically 3X. Well, not quite, but almost 3X. And it didn't make that move. It didn't go up every day.
There were like four or five massive candles that comprised that entire move. So in four to five
days of action of holding the stock for three months, it delivered all the performance it
needed to deliver for me this year. Same thing with Centris. Centris doesn't go up every day.
In fact, it's been going down lately. It fell from 250 highs to the 160s right but while that
position was correcting i had other stocks like lift and genius sports and you know these other
names that i've picked up more recently perform in lieu of it right so when you have a basket
when you have baskets of individual stocks like i do, that should be your intention, is that your stocks perform in spurts.
And when the performers are consolidating, you have other stocks that can perform in the meanwhile.
And that's how you drive high output.
Can I ask you on the Genius Sports one, all these prediction markets that have been coming up.
Now, it seems like they're going to be using
the same type of data. But my kind of question
here is, is this expanding the
betting pie, or is this taking a piece of the pie
from other areas? And if it's expanding it,
that seems bullish for genius sports more than
players. Yeah, it's bullish for genius
either way. And this is part of the reason why.
But here's the thing. I think if it's taking a piece
from the pie, it's not bearish for genius sports but the pie growing is what's bearish is what's
bullish for for genius sports which yeah if it's on top of it i think the pie of anything layered
on top of nfl data anything layered on top of nfl data whether that's disney's ventures with
the media whether that's cal she and poly market running more more sports
lines anything that's layered on nfl master data is bullish for genius because they quite literally
own the feed through the 2030 super bowl like it is there the nfl master data feed is not the nfl's
it is geniuses until the 2030 super bowl that's. Okay, again, what exactly do you mean by the master data feed?
Okay, so the NFL master data feed.
What is theirs and what isn't?
Yes, okay.
So the NFL master data feed is a feed of all game scores,
all live stats, all referee whistles.
There's like seven pieces of data.
I forgot the other ones,
but it's everything that happens in an NFL game.
Every piece of data that happens in an NFL game is fed to something called the NFL master data feed.
Okay. Now with the NFL master data feed is, is it is the lowest latency feed of live sports data on
planet earth. Okay. It's actually even lower latency than the NBA's, which was the supposedly
the most cutting edge, like four years ago. Anyway, ago anyway so lowest i ask you a question on that yeah let me just explain the full concept first
and then ask me so it's a low latency master feed of all data in the game what the nfl then does is
sports books and media organizations who want to run live broadcasts of shows, run live betting odds, run live bet payouts, right? Like
when you place a bet on an online app, and as soon as the ball goes through the net, it registers
as a point and pays you. In order to have that level of immediacy and lack of latency, you need
the NFL Master Data Feed. So that's what the NFL master
data feed is. And one company gets retention of it at a time. And right now, Genius Sports has
those exclusive rights, right? At like a sub 3 billion market cap, which I think is hilarious.
But anyway, it's trading as a sports betting company. It's trading at the multiple of a
sports betting company. It should be trading at the multiple of a software company. That's really my thesis behind it. And the stock's up 35% since I bought it.
40% actually. We bought it in the 950s, 960s. It's in the 13s today or was in the 13s today.
I don't know what it closed at, but I still haven't sold it for that reason. Because again,
I think the market misunderstands the story that I think the stock will continue to be repriced.
I think it's probably a $20 stock.
So, yeah, is that going to happen by January?
No, it might take until mid-next year.
It might even take until the end of next year.
But I think it's probably a $20 stock.
So, yeah, that's what the Master Data Feed is.
What was your question?
The question I was going to ask during that was within the stadiums like
is yeah listen is it kind of exclusive within the stadiums to me that's there's some sort of
cameras or something going along this um you know it's all the nfl's it's all the nfl's officially
booked data right so some of it is depending on the stadium there are some camera corroborated feeds, but this is all like taken by NFL scorekeepers, live data,
and then input it into the NFL's master data feed system, right?
Which is then relayed to sports books, et cetera.
And for things like the ball going in the basket,
as soon as the score changes, right?
Like as soon as the basketball enters the net and the score changes,
that registers on the, on the registers on the master data feed.
I'm talking about it for the NBA, but same thing for the NFL.
As soon as the guy's fingers touch the ball in the end zone, it registers on the master's data feed.
The points go up on the board and then the master data feed registers it, right?
And for the NFL, sometimes this is very important because as you guys know, in the NFL, sometimes, you know, you get a reception and there's a call or there's a whistle and then there's like some minutes to decide if it's a reception or not.
So it's very important. You can't just have a willy nilly data feed that says, yeah, it's a it's a completion.
And then, you know, it gets whatever the referee comes out on the field and, you know, so on and so on.
So the NFL master data feed only sends the data
through when it is officially registered by game officials right so you don't have false bets
firing off etc like i gave an example this example last time i was explaining the master data feed but
like i don't know if anyone's heard of this but this is a very common thing that happens with
off-site sports books that offer services in
the united states like bovada is probably the biggest example where people who live in states
in the u.s that don't allow gambling they you know they create bovada accounts with fake addresses or
whatever anyway i wonder bovada has to be crushed with these prediction markets because most of
those states align yeah yeah probably um and
apparently they've been a bitch with payouts lately too so my buddies use them but anyway um
so come over to robin hood prediction markets yeah i know they probably will um so bovada uh
i'll give you an example one of my buddies um was at a stars game in Dallas. And the Stars are a hockey team,
for people that don't know, an NHL team. So he's watching the game live. He's on the glass,
right? He's behind the net. He's on the glass. And he's betting on the game live while he's
watching it on his phone, on Bovada. And he's looking at props, live props. And he's betting on the game live while he's watching it on his phone on Bovada. And he's looking at props, live props,
and he's looking at one of the forwards of the other team.
I forgot who they were playing, but I wasn't at the game.
He was at the game.
He just told me the story.
And Bovada was not using the NHL's master data feed.
Okay, Bovada's using a – you don't have to use the master data feed.
And in Bovada's case, they were using a third you don't have to use the master data feed and in bob vovada's case
they were using a third party provider of that nhl's data so anyway he was staring at this prop
on his phone of a guy scoring a goal and the guy scored the goal in front of him like as he's
looking at his phone the guy scores the goal and the prop was still there and so he hit it and bet on it and after the the
the the ball had gone into the net sorry the puck had gone into the net and he bet on it and he hit
the bet like like you know 32 seconds later it registered as the guy had scored a goal and he
was laughing and he was like dude what the hell like how did this happen and he found out they
weren't using the nhL master data feed.
And so Pavada since then, I think, has changed that.
And I don't know if they have the master data feed for all their sports now, but I know they've changed it for the NHL.
But my point is, is that this is why master data feeds, low latency speeds are so important for sports, because there are bets, live bets being placed.
Because there are bets, live bets being placed.
Right?
Right.
So as a book, you don't want to pay out a live bet that somebody exploited you on, obviously.
You know, somebody's sitting at the NHL game and sees a goal and bets $100,000 on it.
Like, you know.
So anyway, that's why it's important that's the that is a very very simple um simplified i should say explanation of
what a sports master data feed is and why it is important and why people pay for it and ai yeah
ai seems like something that can get you kind of near close to that but that's that's not that
seems that truthfully i feel like that's the problem when we're talking how ai
moving forward if we're talking 2030 when this is up for renewal ai will probably be able to do
this if you can get the camera as near time i mean we'll see so this guy bully just commented
on our space and said i tried that at wells fargo arena in philly and it's blocked inside the arena
that's funny oh to bet while you're there try a vpn buddy it's not a bad point although they probably i i've noticed they do block
the vpns pretty well so you'd have to get a good vpn dude there are so many vpn companies there's
no way they block them all you could find a vpn company pay for it for three bucks i've i've done
this before no i'm telling you though i bet you the $3 ones are going to be the...
You got to get a good one.
No, dude.
VPN companies are...
I've bought a bunch of fucking random VPN companies.
I've never had an issue.
What were you doing?
What were you doing?
You know, it's not important.
But I've needed to use VPNs before.
You know?
A lot of times people have, you know, restrictions on stuff they shouldn't have restrictions on.
Geofence blocker, there you go.
M chimed in.
Also, if we want to shift the conversation around a little bit,
Apple should be having an interesting couple weeks.
DockTalk, you see the post over the weekend,
innovation back at Apple over the next couple
years yeah we'll see i um so you know the apple call position that i i've been talking about on
here my headphones just died that apple position i've been talking about on here it was 919s
230 calls is what i ended up having and then i i rolled them up to the 240s and i can look exactly
i think i took out my initial costs.
So we're here now I'm in the two forties down a,
down a good bit on them,
but I added to them yesterday,
doubling the size of that position.
Apple there,
they released.
When was the expiry on your two 30,
nine 19.
I didn't change the expiration date.
I just rolled up from two 30.
You rolled them out like a month in advance.
Yeah.
Well,
they,
they started out as nine 19 and then I just rolled them from two 30, in advance? Yeah. Well, no, they started out as 919.
And then I just rolled them from 230 to 240.
Did not change the date.
Yeah.
I debate about this a lot with people about contract rolling.
I guess I'll give a little spiel on that.
Can I just do one thing? The reason I do it, I have a lot of problems selling.
And what's ended up happening is like a hold on something it's up a bunch are you rolling the full dollar like okay so let's say you have an option at five
it goes to 10 are you selling the whole position and then rolling all of that capital or are you
like retaining some of the profits i'm retaining like what i'm retaining the profits but i'm like
doing the wrong feature like a bunch like i am taking out my initial cost and a lot of them like what's
a bunch like are you doing it on like a are you are you doing it like on disciplined places or
just keep them a random amount uh truthfully not as disciplined as i as i should be but generally
it's been two three x's i've waited for and i've taken out uh i've waited for it to at least be
more than well more than doubles you're waiting for it to at least be well more than doubles.
You're waiting for it to 3x take profits?
I'm telling you, that is my problems.
So at least we're here.
I'm not a trader, but continue.
What were you going to say?
For me, it helps me
to at least book some things,
so whatever.
And I've calculated on some of these moves
that would have been up more.
But if you want to do it in a more capital efficient way, there's two things you should do.
One, you should be cognizant of how much profit you're retaining prior to the role. Because you ideally want to.
So, OK, let's say you go in with a thousand on the initial contract.
Contract doubles.
You want to retain the initial cost.
So you retain the initial cost and then roll the profits.
And if you're going to roll, I think that's a more effective way to do it.
And then you should also be cognizant of the volatility impacts right because i mean wolfie brought
this up earlier and i was going to mention it then but i'll mention it now yes in theory if
you want to continue to capture the volatility expansion you want to roll aggressively but
what a lot of people don't consider is the volatility trade-off, right? Like a lot of, like I, for example,
very often hold deep in the money contracts. Now, some of my options trading buddies who I've
traded with for years and they know I'm a good trader and we just sort of, you know,
we still play devil's advocate with each other and try to provide advice. A lot of my options
trading buddies will say, well, you know, why aren't you rolling them? And for me, I'm like, well, I took the volatility risk, right?
I'm buying generally 10%, maybe 15% of the money contracts when I'm buying contracts initially,
but I took the volatility risk when I opened those contracts, right? And now that that volatility risk that I took has paid off, I don't want to take on more volatility on that position, which is what you're doing by rolling.
When you're rolling further out of the money and further out, you're saying, I want another bout or I want another battle with the volatility here.
And if the markets go against you in that instance, then you're going to give back a lot of your profits. So I actually, in my style, and I've done very well in the markets, I share my performance,
I share the last year, I'm sharing it this year too.
I generally hold in the money contracts for as long as I can, actually.
And in some cases, it has led to enormous...
Oh, it might have been me.
Sorry. It has led to enormous... Oh, it might have been me. Sorry.
It has led to enormous...
Sorry, I said in some cases it's led to enormous payoffs because with Robinhood, for example, at the beginning of last year, I bought 15 and 20 call leaps.
I could have rolled those, right, when Robinhood went to 30 and 40, but I didn't.
When it came to expiration, I exercised them.
And now I own Robinhood at 1974 and the stock's 100 bucks. Right. I would have never been.
I probably wouldn't have exercised them had I rolled them out because they would have been at the point of rollout.
They probably would have been 60 calls at that point. You know, with the stock trading 70 or 80, I probably wouldn't have exercised that.
You know, with the stock trading 70 or 80, I probably wouldn't have exercised that.
But on the other hand, with owning the 15 and 20s, I was like, I'm exercising these.
The stock's 100 bucks.
Right?
So I think that's the difference is that, you know, there's a lot of different...
Hold on.
Amazon guy's at my door.
Give me a second.
Bullish.
Bullish Amazon.
Okay, never mind. It's just a small package.
What, you thought you had to sign with it?
Sign it? Is that what that meant?
Rolling positions.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, so when you're rolling, you are taking on more volatility risk because if the market goes against you amidst that role, those contracts are going to become worthless quickly because under principle of the role, you're going to go further out of the money.
And on the other hand, if you have deep in the money contracts that you're just sitting on, right, it gives you control over equity with much lower cost in.
Right.
So, like, for example, like on Genius, right, I own hundreds of the January $10 calls.
I own hundreds of the January $10 calls.
I own hundreds of them.
Okay.
Okay.
And that's giving me control over millions of dollars of genius sports
stock when I'm contributing less than six figures to those total,
to that total options position.
Right.
So that's giving me control.
Can we play this again?
What strike and what was it again?
The January $10 calls.
I own hundreds of them.
Okay. And for me, when I bought those, I bought those when they were like,
you know, a buck 50 to a buck 70. Right. And now they're trading $3 to $4. Right. That was a huge,
that's been a huge trade for me. I'm still holding hundreds of contracts. My point is,
is that that gives me control over millions of dollars of stock
with far less cap. I don't have to contribute millions of dollars of capital to hold that
position. But when Genius goes up, right now that the stock is $13, those $10 calls are $3 in the
money. When Genius goes up 5%, my portfolio reacts as if I own millions of dollars of genius stock, even though I
have less than six figures contributed to that January $10 call.
So that's the principle, see, is that that's why I hold in the money calls is because I'm
not further taking risk.
If I were to have rolled those tens out to, let's say, 15s, right? If Genius continues to consolidate-
Right now, you-
So I'm looking at that, actually.
That's exactly what I was kind of calculating.
So right now, the 10s are 3.70.
The 15s are 95 cents.
You take in about $2.75 per contract
to 2.75 times you have.
But that also puts the onus on me
of Genius having to-
Like, when I got into Genius, it was 9.60, right? It performed for me of genius having to like when i got into genius it was 960 right it performed
for me it went to 13 it went up 30 or 40 so it it i captured that initial move i took the volatility
risk right when i bought the 10 dollar call stock was 960 i took the volatility risk and said you
know what i think the stock's gonna go up went up for me, those contracts more than doubled. And now I'm sitting there saying, okay, I either hold those
in the money contracts, or I roll them out again. And in which case, genius would have to go to 15
by whatever given date I rolled them out to, as opposed to now, I'm very, very profitable as long as it stays above 1170.
Right?
So rolling out contracts, in theory, it sounds great.
In a bull market, it is great.
Because in a raging bull market where everything's just going up in a straight line, yeah, it works well because you don't have to worry about the stock coming back down. But when there's points of volatility, it will kill you.
volatility, it will kill you. When there's points of volatility, like imagine if on February 16th,
you rolled out all of your, your calls that were deep in the money. You're like, you know what,
all my AI trades are killing it. I'm going to roll out all these calls on February 21st,
your portfolio gets fucking killed because you're in further out of the money strikes on all of your
stuff. And now everything just takes a 20%
nosedive in two days. Like you just get killed on everything. So yeah, I don't know. Rolling can be
good if you're very experienced and you're in a raging bull market. But I think rolling up
aggressively further out of the money and further out is actually not a good strategy, in my opinion.
And I think it's more capital efficient to just hold those deep in the money
calls to expiration and then decide what you want to do with them then. If you're holding,
like if I'm, if Genius is $20 by January, by the expiration of those calls, I will exercise
a good portion of them. I won't exercise all of them. I'll probably sell, you know, 75% of them
and exercise 25% of them, boom and then i'll have a
i'd be curious on the calculations on say they're at that 20 mark on if you would have rolled two
three times there and yeah i would have made more money evan yeah i would have made more money if i
did that right but i also am taking on more volatility risk because i'm saying the stock
has to continue to perform or are we talking
you love yourself some risk though i do love no i love risk dude i love me some stock picks
but i take smart risk you know like i take risk that i am confident in and this like
me saying if somebody were telling me hey would you bet on genius being 20 bucks in three years
i would say yeah i'll take that bet would i bet on Genius being 20 bucks in three years? I would say, yeah, I'll take that bet.
Would I bet on it being 20 bucks by January?
Like, I don't know, you know.
But what holding deep in the money contracts allows you to do is it allows you to endure periods of consolidation without paying a price.
Because if you rolled out, if I had rolled those Geniuses 10s out to 15s am, let's say genius right now for the next three weeks consolidates between 12 and 13.
Well, with my deep in the money 10 calls, I'm fine with that.
OK, but if I'm holding the 15s, I'm going to be worried.
I'm going to be saying, dude, is this thing going to go to 15 by the time these expire or is it just going to bounce around here in the 12 to 13 range versus holding the 10s?
expire or is it just going to bounce around here in the 12 to 13 range versus holding the 10s i can
say hey maybe it does go to 15 by january you know in which case i'll still make a ton of profit
on those so you know and even if it doesn't and it stays at 12 90 till january i'll still sell
them for a big profit so it's like a it's me It's just harder to lose with deep in the money contracts. And I think it's sort of a reward. This is how I view it psychologically. It's sort of a reward for the risk you took when you bought them in the first place. By rolling out, you're saying, I want to take more risk. I want to take risk again. I want to take risk again. Roll them out again. Roll them out again. I just don't like that attitude. To me, I'm like, hey, thank you, market gods. You gave me a dub on this. Now I have deep in the money
contracts. When they come to expiration, I'll decide what to do with them. What about even
just like, say, rolling once so you can get your initial cost out so you can kind of confirm a win?
I guess you can do that through different ways. But what do you think of that? And maybe it's
something that you don't do, but I just don't do it often because look my positions are usually so why not though how do you confirm that
gain when you could do right now if you rolled up to the 12 50s or something maybe you can get
your initial cost out and you can have that as a position that's that's kind of free there's other
ways that you can go in and do that i guess but it doesn't sound like maybe you have um limit orders
there's a lot of ways you can do this so what i do is this so this is my typical position composition wouldn't do that, I guess. But it doesn't sound like maybe you have limit orders.
There's a lot of ways you can do this. So what I do is this. So this is my typical position composition looks like this. I buy. So let's say I'm allocating $100,000 to a stock. Okay.
I'm buying $90,000 of that in equity and $10,000 in a less than 10% out of the money options
contract that expires at least three months out. Generally,
much longer than that, but at least three months out. Okay. That's my basic composition. So
common equity for 80 to 90% of the position and then 10 to 15% of the position is a less than 10%
out of the money, at least three months out of expiration, preferably under 70% IV.
Sometimes I can't get that because I'm trading very highly volatile stocks, but I prefer it to
be a sub 70% IV if I can get it. So that's it. Now, when the stock starts performing for me,
I have multiple options depending on the nature of the position or my desires at the time.
I can do one of several things. I can trim the equity, right? So again, the majority of the position or my desires at the time, I can do one of several things. I can trim
the equity, right? So again, the majority of the position from a dollar allocation amount is in
the equity. I can trim the equity. So let's say stock goes up 25%, I can take a 10% trim on equity.
Alternatively, if I have enough contracts in terms of the enough volume of contracts,
or if they're not expensive contracts, like in Genius's case, where they're, you know,
bucks, 50 bucks, 60 contracts, if I have enough contracts in volume, then maybe I'll trim 10% of the contracts or 15%
of the contracts instead of the equity. Again, it just depends on the nature of the position.
If it's a stock that I intend to hold for a long time, I'm less likely to trim the equity.
So if it's a long-term position, I'm going to say, okay, I'm going to use the options as my
profit-taking tool, and I'm just going to keep the equity. And if it's a trading position, sometimes I do that
on the opposite, right? Because if it's a trading position, my main priority is I want my capital
back because I want to recycle that capital as buying power, right? Like not enough traders
think about this. Capital efficiency is very important if you want to recycle that capital as buying power, right? Like not enough traders think about this.
Capital efficiency is very important if you want to super perform in the markets.
If you want to like 10x market performance, like I've done now for two years in a row,
if you want to do that, you have to think about capital efficiency.
You have to.
It can't just be a matter of buying and selling stocks.
You have to be very, very disciplined about capital efficiency.
So in these instances, what you should do is you should be able to designate your positions
by where you're willing to leave buying power and where you're unwilling to leave buying power.
And so for your trading positions, some people would say, well, that's counterintuitive.
For my trading positions, I'm actually more likely to sell the equity and keep the options.
And for my longer term positions, I'm more likely to sell the options and keep the equity.
It's a rule of thumb. That's not always true, but it's a rule of thumb. Why? Well, with my trading
positions, I generally have high confidence in everything I'm buying, right? Like even stuff
I've sold, like I sold Bloom Energy at 26.
The stock's 50 now, right?
I sold Talon Energy at 275.
The stock's 375 now.
Like the stocks I buy are good stocks.
So they're likely going to keep going up when I sell them.
And so what I like to do with my trading positions is I want to stay in the trade,
but I don't want to keep, you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars of capital tied up in equity.
So I sell the equity early, right?
Makes 10% move.
Great.
Take the equity gain.
Then leave the options on the table because if the stock continues to go up, that dollar allocation to those options is much smaller, right?
Like I said at the beginning, if I'm putting 90,000 in the stock, I'm putting 10,000 in the options, that dollar allocation is much smaller.
The restriction on my buying power is much smaller.
And so as a consequence of that, it's easier for me to hold that options component and let it run than it is to sell the equity and move on.
So that's kind of a couple of rule of thumbs for me On how I pick options, on how I sell on trading
versus longer term positions.
Those are some rules of thumb,
but it's not gonna be the same for everyone.
Some of you might feel the need to operate differently.
Some of you might have smaller risk tolerances than I do,
but I'm a very like patient, chill person.
Like energy fuels, you know, today,
which was a great performer today,
when I had that 18% day, like a few days ago, that hurt my portfolio, right?
It was like a 7% position for me at a minus 18% day.
That hurt my portfolio.
It was annoying.
But I didn't sell it.
You know, I even said to our members, I was like, I have no clue why this thing's down 18% today, but I'm staying in it, you know.
And some people panicked out of it.
And that's okay.
You know, it's okay to manage risk or if something scares you out, but I didn't sell it
because I know what I own. Like I understand the things that I own and I know when they should be
sold and when they're not right. And now look at it today, it's fucking 12 bucks now. So yeah,
I think you follow some of those basic principles and of management, I think you'll just be happier with,
with your portfolio returns because people are very inefficient with their capital. People are
very inefficient with the way they sell things, with the way they leverage things. People are
inefficient with options contract rolling. That's sort of why I brought that up too. I think a lot
of people waste a lot of money doing that. Um, yeah, sort of it. I know we talked about a lot of money doing that um yeah sort of it i know we talked about a lot of stuff
today but no it's fair it's fair and i actually am going to a i believe a portuguese steakhouse
at 6 p.m so we're gonna log off at some point soon but um the problem is i had a little bit
of a bigger lunch so like i probably won't go for the big thing.
It's a Tuesday, whatever.
But I will get steak.
I'm surprised you don't roll a little bit,
but I know someone's commented below,
it's actually the old Jim Cramer method,
but also the Nancy Pelosi one that she goes in and does
and buys these deep-in-the-money stocks.
Yeah, I like it.
There's a question, by the way,
before you go into it.
Do you trade from...
Actually, sorry.
Shouldn't even try it.
Do you trade around a core holding
by adding...
Do you trade around a core
by adding options exposure
when a stock pulls back?
LEU is a core position for you.
Did you consider buying
three-month-out options
when it pulled back?
I did consider that. I did consider that when i pulled back to 160 the thing is this is that the chain
was pretty illiquid for the kind of size i would want to put on so you know i mean i to feel it for
me i generally need like 50 to 100 contracts minimum to feel it.
So I have to find a place where I need, like I can see liquidity and there just wasn't liquidity on the chain.
So that's the short answer to you.
But yes, when it did pull back to the 21 week EMA, I did think about adding $200 calls on LEU.
leu i just couldn't find liquidity that i needed so that's the short answer to that
I just couldn't find liquidity that I needed.
So that's the short answer to that.
and i do trade around core positions sometimes but it's not always using naked options to
compliment them like for years with tesla post like in 2022 on tesla i sold covered calls on
tesla in 2022 like every week reduced my cost base significantly um Like every big day it would have in 2022, I sold calls and that
worked in 2022. I just felt like a weak year. I was shorting RK all that year too. I just was very
negative on the economy that year, but it ended up being a good year to be negative. But you know,
you have to find out what works for you. Some cases I'll sell calls on a position to trade
around it. Some cases I'll add naked call exposure if it pulls back to a key area. In some cases I might trim equity,
add it back later. I am very averse to ruining my equity cost basis because I think it gives me
psychological flexibility in managing positions. I know that that's sort of a weird hill to die on.
I know a lot of experienced traders and investors that just don't get that.
And I've argued with them, you know, back and forth about it. But to me,
psychology is like the most important part of management, like being able to wake up every day and look at your portfolio and be chill and like everything you own and not feel over risked or
overexposed is like the most underrated part of being successful in markets, in my opinion.
And I wake up every day and look at my portfolio and I'm like, dude,
I know each of these stocks inside and out.
I know where I think they're headed.
I monitor the technical structure every two or three days.
You know, I know what the daily and weekly and monthly charts look like.
I know where the support areas are.
I just know my shit.
And so I don't ever really, I'm not ever off keel.
Like I don't ever like panic or like freak out. Like even when my stuff's going up,
I don't really freak out. Like I'll celebrate. I'll be like, hell yeah, let's go up 18%. But
I'm never off keel ever. And I think it's super important. And part of the reason why I'm not is because
not only because I know what I own, but because everything's sized appropriately,
according to my conviction level, my options when I do have them are usually deep in the money,
unless I bought them newly, obviously. I don't have tremendous amounts of margin. People look
at my performance this year, they're like, oh, you must have used tremendous amount of margin.
I think I'm like 112% long right now, barely any margin. There was a point
in the year where I was like 130% long, but it was very short lived. It was just because there
was a lot of stuff on the table that I had, but I'm not like 200% long or something. I'm outperforming
the market because I'm picking really good stocks that are outperforming. That's why I'm outperforming the market because I'm picking really good stocks that are outperforming. That's why I'm outperforming the market by so much, you know.
So it's not rocket science, but it does require discipline and patience.
And that's back to the psychology thing.
The reason I don't like to ruin my cost basis is because market corrections will come.
Right.
Like when when Kratos fell back to the 30s during the April correction or when Robinhood
fell back to the 30s, I wasn't spooked because my cost base on those positions are so deep that even after those 40, 50 percent pullbacks in the stock, I was still green on the positions.
That's underrated.
That's underrated.
That feeling is underrated because you're going to manage it differently.
I don't care who you are.
You're going to manage it differently. I don't care who you are. You're going to manage it differently. If you see stocks breaking down in front of you and you're down on the positions,
you're red, that's a different level of risks that you're taking than if you're up on the positions.
Right. It's just plain and simple. It's like, because if, if you're a trader who got into a
stock last week and it goes down 40%, you're down 40%. If you're a trader who got into a stock last week and it goes down 40 percent you're down 40 percent if you're a trader who got into stock four months before and it goes down 40 percent and you have
108 percent cost advantage you're not down and you could probably even think about adding to
that position at that juncture whereas the guy who's down 40 percent can i be honest with you
yeah this is probably like my psychology thing and maybe it's different for you like the rolling
thing and at least taking out my initial cost
and still being able to have the similar exposure.
And if I really believe in the play, going up one or two strikes,
isn't that crazy?
I kind of like at least accepting that extra play ball.
You don't need to roll out to take out your cost.
That's my point.
Yeah, you can sell some of it.
Yeah, because you were saying you're not rolling out
until you're up two to three X, right?
So like if you're up two to three X, sell half of it, because you were saying you're not rolling out till you're up two to three x right so like if you're up two to three x sell half of it your risk is gone you don't need to
roll out like what you're saying is in order for me to reduce risk i need to take on more risk
that's what you're saying you're saying by rolling out and selling half i'm taking my risk out yeah
but you're also taking on new risk, right? There's no such
thing as house money in the markets. It's your money. You know, the markets gave it to you,
right? So you got a double on those contracts and now you're saying, well, I'm only taking my
profits and rolling them out. Well, your profits are part of your account, right? They're part of
your account balance now. So it's like you are taking on more risk. I do call it, it's called
boy math, I believe. Yeah, it's called boy math. Yeah, that's good. Yeah, it's called boy math i believe yeah it's called boy math yeah that's good um
yeah it's called boy but yeah in reality if you really truly want to reduce risk which is what
you're what you're alluding to you would sell half the contracts not roll them out that's the truth
and so yeah i think rolling out i don't know if i want to reduce risk but i want to feel
better about the risk that i have maybe is what it is
because god i'm feeling risky i'm good sell half i'm feeling dangerous right now selling half your
contracts is a makes the world a more beautiful place dude and it's like i can't tell you how
many times why roll instead of sell that why sell instead of roll because like dude dude, okay, I'll give you an example. I own Kratos 35 and $40 calls for January,
2027. Okay. When I bought those, the 35 calls were eight bucks. The 40 calls were four bucks.
The 40 calls are now 35 bucks each. And the 35 calls are 38 bucks each, right? The 35,
the 35 calls are up. The 40 calls are up 630 and they don't expire until
next january 2027 those are in the money calls that i held evan and i sold half of them when
they were doubled right but you think if i hold those to january 2027 those won't be a 10x
they probably will be right or maybe even. So did I need to roll those out? Like, could I have made a little more juice on Kratos if I rolled those 40s out to the 50s or 60s? Yeah. But they're up 630 percent. Anyway, like, is that a bad is that a bad trade? You know, is that did, did I miss out on the upside by not rolling them out?
You know, it's like, there's still up tons.
And people don't get that.
Like, when I post some of these options trades that are up, like, five, six, 700%, people
are like, oh, you must have bought weekly contracts.
You must be doing zero DT.
I'm like, no, dude, I bought these six months ago.
And they're, you know, 80% of the money. That's why they're up 700 percent. Like you don't have to hit these huge home runs on options. You don't have to gamble. You don't have to buy 50 percent out of the money contracts expiring in one month to make those types of options gains. You just don't. I'm proof of that. If you look at all the crazy option stuff I posted on Twitter, all of that is deep in the money, far out stuff that I
bought months ago. So you don't have to gamble to get crazy gains in the markets. You don't,
especially in the markets we've been in. I don't know if people feel the need to do that. People
want to feel the need to just always be out of the money. Oh, I want to get out of the money, out of the money, out of the money,
further out of the money.
You know, give me more.
Give me more time.
Give me more further out, further out.
Like, that's what everyone wants.
It drives me crazy because I don't think it's necessary to win at all.
And my performance is proof of that.
You know, you don't need to take those crazy risks to win in the markets.
You just need to pick good stocks, manage them well,
and, you know, know when to rotate into new names.
What's up, Kurt?
I was just going to try to give Evan the benefit of my option experience,
which has made me a lot of money.
I make money by selling options for the most part,
and it makes me happy that so many people use calls and puts to get leverage
and they keep rolling positions because the premiums are literally double what they used to be
pre-COVID. And rolling options, long options, because you want to have leverage on something,
you're just paying those premiums and it eats away your leverage over time because you're paying for it.
In my opinion, and I have the numbers to back it up,
you don't want to hold long option positions very often.
I mean, there's a handful of times where it makes sense to do like a two-year leap or
something, but not often.
Usually, you want to use a long option because you see a catalyst that's imminent.
And maybe you roll it once because, oh, I missed by a quarter.
But you just don't want to keep paying premiums.
It just eats into your return over and over.
So if you're up 30% or 40% or 50% pretty quick on a call or a put that you're long, take profits.
You don't have to sell half or a third.
I kind of do things in fractions because my Catholic school mind is always converting fractions to percentages, but
you just don't want to have that deterioration, right? The calendar is working against you
when you own options. So use it for a catalyst because, hey, I think earnings are going to be great
or they're about to sign a contract or whatever.
But most of the time, and not all the time,
there are times to be long and just keep going long a company via options.
However, most of the time, I'd say at least 80% of the time,
you do not want to be rolling and rolling and rolling.
Take your profits, reset, start over.
Is there something ahead in the next month or two that's going to make this pop?
Otherwise, you're just paying and paying and paying.
And I've been making double-digit returns for 26, 27 years selling options.
And the best years ever have been since COVID with all the new traders who just keep paying premiums.
I almost feel bad taking all this money.
Now go eat your steak and think about that.
I did say, well, we got Jaguar joining us up here.
Big fan of Jaguar.
He's awesome.
Jaguar, talk about rolling contracts here is what this last thing has been.
Good afternoon, everybody.
Good afternoon, sir.
I roll my contracts all the time.
I never just take profits by selling
contracts i roll them i mean it's it's the way to do it it's the way i've always done it it's
the way how everyone does it so my question to stock talk as i listened there briefly i jumped
in late but i think i caught some of it um It sounds like that the only reason why you do not roll, you just sell,
is because you want to continue to see the profits you have.
You don't want to reset on the P&L when you're looking at your portfolio.
Is that it?
No, no, no, no.
Number one, I don't sell either is what I was saying I'm not saying I always just sell a contract when it's
up what I do is I like to hold contracts as a way to get control of equity without contributing as
much capital as opposed to using them as their own trading vehicles does that make sense yeah i understand that but but
you you know rolling holding in the money contracts because i'm contributing less capital to control
more shares you know what i mean like i understand but rolling doesn't always doesn't necessarily
have to do rolling it to some out of money calls you could still stay in the money and as the stock
goes up the delta goes up yeah i typically
buy a lot of time when i enter initially so i mean like you know the contracts i was talking
about earlier they're january 2026 expiry so i don't feel the need to roll them out more you
know they're deep in the money i'm controlling enough equity with them. They're $10 calls, stocks, 13.
So I just don't feel the need to roll them, you know,
to roll them to the 15s or even if I was going to roll them to the 10s for,
let's say, you know.
I'm not sure.
Which stock are we talking about?
I'm not sure.
Genius.
Genius Sports.
Yeah.
But again, if you have a position that goes so deep in the money that the delta on the trade is 80-90, rolling it in a way of peeling profit, you can stay with deep in the money delta without taking any volatility risk, especially if it is if it is a leap you can roll in 90 delta to a 70 delta
that cashes our profit while you still stay with the same number of contracts
you're cashing out and you're still right i mean so that's that's the thing so i do this all the
time i have positions too where that i've held on for a long time they go so deep in the money but i want to cash out
some profits i don't want to lose the i don't want to i don't want to lose the size of the position
so i simply roll let's say an 85 delta to a to a 75 or 70 delta and if the stock continues to go
up that delta will go up again so that means i my position is still representing
you know the the control of the shares that you were just talking about without actually
selling the position outright it's just roll and roll and roll i mean actually if you look at the
the leap options across many many stocks and i'm talking from large-cap tech stocks, the big, big ones,
Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, and so on, or even the smaller individual ones.
And if you look at the history of some of the biggest open interests in the option chain,
chain in leap calls. Like in Amazon, I've seen this for years and years, like 50%, 70% deep in the
in leap calls, like in Amazon, I've seen this for years and years,
money calls that are one year out expiration. Institutions that are holding this, occasionally
they will make this very adjustment. And I see those things cross my tape when they make such adjustment where somebody is rolling it let's say amazon 100 calls
to amazon 130 strike it's still way deep in the money right but they're not taking off the number
of contracts it's the same number of contracts but the position ended up getting a 90 delta they
want to move it to 75 delta cashing out some and as a stock goes up that 75 delta will go back to 90
delta and they just keep doing it and doing it for years and years to come and the soft bank for
example is notorious for doing exactly that for a long period of time on many many different stocks
and they sit on these massive positions that are worth like 5050 million, $100 million, or even more. Anyway, I just thought I should just insert my two cents here.
But when you're selling contracts, you are essentially taking the profits at that point.
But if you're rolling, you are keeping the same size in terms of contracts.
You're still peeling profits, but you're keeping the same size in terms of contracts.
That's the, and the beauty of that,
now maybe you don't, maybe,
that's why when I heard that a little bit,
but yes, you see the portfolio shifts differently
where naturally you're not staring at a gain at that point
if you just simply roll.
It's a brand new position.
The cost-based advantage thing I was talking about with equity,
not with options.
So I wasn't referring to that with the cost-based advantage thing,
but yeah,
you're,
what you're saying also makes sense.
Assuming that you want to play the stock for years or for a longer time,
right?
Like by rolling out,
you're saying I want to stay in the stock,
right?
And I'm saying that that's not always the case for me. And in the cases where I it is a longer term stock, like with Kratos, for example, which you and me both love. Right. Like I own the Kratos 35 and 40 calls for January 2027.
feel no need to roll those out, right? They're up 600%. When January 2027 rolls around, if the
stock's 120 bucks, I'll exercise those 35 and 40 calls. I'll take the stock. I bought them when
there were three bucks, right? Those contracts. So I'm paying a $3 premium. I lose the $3 premium.
Who cares? I get the stock at 38. If the stock's trading a buck 20 by January 2027, that's fantastic.
So we just manage things a little differently and it's okay.
You know, for me, I, if I'm, if I'm looking at those Kratos calls right now,
could I roll those out?
I mean, I don't even know what's the furthest out expiry is for Kratos.
I don't know if there's a, there is a further one out than January, 20,
I haven't looked, but maybe there is.
If I wanted to roll those out, could I, yeah.
Could I get capture a little bit of, of Delta deflation and expansion, like you mentioned, and optimize the performance a little bit?
Sure, but I just don't feel like it's necessary.
I think there's cohorts of people that hold deep in the money calls until they come to Exprey and they make their decision at that juncture based on where the stock is.
And there's other people that aggressively roll them into that date. And, you know, Wolfie was up here earlier. He's one of those people.
I know you mentioned you like to roll contracts. I've never really done it and I've done very,
very well in spite of doing it. So, yeah, it's everyone manages things differently. But yeah,
for me, I don't feel the need to do it because I don't feel the need to get more time on those trades you know
like when i bought the kratos 2027 leaps in february of this year that was around the timeline
i was targeting for that trade anyway right so i need to roll them out probably not we'll see
where the stock's at in january 2027 i think it'll be you know 100 plus by then so but it's not but
that's what i'm trying to say that's what i'm
trying to understand actually because it's the time is not an issue here you can still stay with
the same expiration doesn't matter which yeah you're just saying roll it up to a higher strike
you're you and you can stay deep in the money too which will continue to right yeah which will
continue to control the shares which is your objective which will continue to control the shares, which is your objective, which will continue to control the shares, right?
Right. But so when January 2027 rolls around, if I were to, let's say, choose to exercise those, then I would be exercising them at a higher rate.
That's your decision. Or even then you can still roll out another six months or at that point to a new expiration and a different strike at that point, too.
and a different strike at that point too.
But if the objective is to control the shares
with a high delta position,
you can continue to do so
because ultimately delta cannot go over 1x.
1.0 is the max it can go.
But when it gets to as high as 90 or 85 delta,
it is a very high representative
of essentially just owning the stock and at that
point which i'm fine with which and at that point you want to appeal something you you don't have to
necessarily sell the number of contracts which will downsize the position right but you will still
look at a pnl in your portfolio at that time you roll it to a 70 delta stock is still going higher
you peel profit you roll to 70 delta stock is still going higher you peel profit you roll to
70 delta stock is still going higher that means that delta will grow again back to 90 or 85 or
whatever what i'm saying is i'm fine with controlling i'm fine with i'm fine with the delta
being essentially the stock because i'm fine with controlling shares with a tenth or an eighth of
the necessary capital i'm fine with that that's that's what the necessary capital. I'm fine with that.
That's what I'm saying to you.
Like, I'm okay with that.
So then if you ever want to take profit on a call option position after a stock has run so much, right,
that the position is so deep, how do you do that?
Sell a few contracts. So you just sell sell then you're essentially taking the profit you're
selling the position then yeah in in cases where i want to take profit yeah like with those kratos
calls i haven't sold any since since i sold the took the cost out when they were up like 200
which was like months ago i took the cost out and since then i haven't sold it which by default is
same as just owning shares and then selling partial position capital though with less
capital the only difference where it makes a difference is is optics you see the thing is
with less capital jaguar with less capital no well i understand that if i wanted to buy those if i
were to buy those credo shares outright i would have to put down much more capital than i would
holding the in the money options.
No, no, no.
Once the stock is run, I get that point.
I get that.
But here's the difference.
Genius for every hundred contracts right now for the $10 calls, right?
Are trading at whatever, like 40K.
And that's controlling whatever, 130K worth of stock.
So that's why I hold them, Jack.
Okay, let's stick with an example of Kratos. Let me finish, let's stick with an example of Kratos.
Let me finish.
Let's stick with an example of Kratos.
Yeah.
If you wanted to take some profits in these call options you have today,
you would just sell them partially or whatnot.
If I wanted to, yeah, but I don't.
Right, right.
The difference between that and rolling is essentially will come down to what happens in the future.
Because if Kratos, let's say, goes to 150, if Kratos goes to 150, I mean, I'm long the stock,
I hope it goes to 150, it would be awesome. The difference is you sold partial position.
You don't have the same control that you had previously because, you know, you sold the position.
I did not.
I rolled the position from a higher delta to slightly lower delta while still staying with deep in the money.
And as the stock goes up, that delta goes right back to 90 or even higher, still controlling the same number of shares while i was able to peel the profit my profit my
gain with the stock going from let's say 70 to 180 150 will be much bigger than somebody who just
simply took profits and then the stock went from 70 to 150 that's where the difference comes correct
but the assumption under that is that i am going to sell the contracts and i'm not going to sell
the contracts right so i bought them at three and I'm not going to sell the contracts. Right. So I bought them at three dollars.
I'm not going to sell them.
Like if Kratos were to go back to thirty eight dollars where those contracts went back.
What about the time value of money?
Like you're a great trader.
Let's get some of that money liquid now.
Again, we're talking about different management strategies.
Jaguar is rolling because he wants
to trim profits on the position and stay in with the same number of contracts. That makes sense
for Jaguar strategy. For me, that is not the intention. I bought the 2027 contracts at the
beginning of 2025. I bought two years of time. There's no need. Could I capture a little more
Delta to Jaguar's point? Yes, but there's absolutely no need for me to roll them. Because when the 2027 X3 comes out, if the stock is where I think it's going to be, I will exercise those 35 and 40 calls. And I will get the stock at an effective cost of 37.
right? If I roll them a little further up on the strike, right? So let's say the 45s or the 50s,
when that 2027 expiry comes up, will I have captured a little bit of more delta and performance
in the meantime until then? Sure. But I will end up paying a higher cost for the shares if I choose
to exercise at that date. If I choose to not stay in the position with options and want to get in
with equity, which is what I usually do for most of my core positions.
It's what I did with Robinhood, too. With Robinhood, if I had rolled out from the 15 and 20s to 25 and 30 or 35, my Robinhood shares, I would own the same number of shares at a higher cost basis.
You know, so like to me, it was the right decision to not roll my Robinhood contracts out. Could I have squeezed a little more juice out of the lemon out of the Delta? Sure. But just different approaches to the markets. We both do very well in the markets. We just have different approaches to it. And that's totally fine.
the need on core positions to roll. And the main difference is the allocated buying power.
That is the main difference. Yes, once they get further enough in the money, the delta gets high
enough, you're essentially owning shares. But you're owning shares with much less capital
allocated to those shares, to that position. Yeah, but you're owning shares with much less capital allocated to those shares, to that position.
Yeah, but you got that.
That's my only point.
But that's the only point.
I get that point.
But it's money in your cash.
The money adds to your cash balance.
I mean, it's not that you lose that mind power.
I mean, so I understand that at the time, when the time comes for assignment,
or the time comes to exercise. Right, when the time comes for exercise, what I'm saying, Jag,
is if I want to exercise, it does reduce the efficacy of the exercise. Yes, but at the time
you're rolling, that money is added to your cash. Jag, I know, Jag. I'm saying that's assuming I want to roll.
Let's say I don't want to roll.
Let's say I want to say, hey, I just don't want to be in options on this anymore.
I want to own the equity on this.
That changes that decision for me, right?
When January 2027 comes up, I may very well want the shares.
I may not want to get into more leaps.
Maybe I will.
We'll see.
It's a long time away. But we'll see where Maybe I will. We'll see. It's a long time
away. But we'll see where the markets are. We'll see where Kratos is back then. But I can make
that decision more flexibly owning these $60 in the money, but for $40 in the money calls that I
own, I can sit there with those happily, confidently, stress-free and say, look, we'll see what
happens in Jan 2027.
If I want to take the shares, I'll take the shares. That's all I'm saying. For me,
it makes management of my positions for me less stressful. I don't have to worry about managing
the roles. I don't have to search for roles constantly. I'm just chilling. And another
thing that makes this easier for me is that most of my portfolio is an equity.
You know, I have 10 to 15 percent of my portfolio in options at a given time.
And I like those options to not be dramatically volatile.
And you're right.
I could go in the money.
I could go just a little higher strike.
I get all your points.
Your points are well taken.
I'm not saying you're wrong about anything you said.
All the points you made are factually accurate. I'm just saying for my strategy, for my tolerance of volatility, and for my management of buying power, holding in the
money options, deep in the money options, has been a great way for me to get flexibility in the
portfolio and has done well for me. I haven't regretted it in any instance I can think of.
Could I squeeze a little
more juice out by being a little more aggressive with the rules? Yes. But I just, it hasn't been
necessary for me to do. And, and we've been in raging bull markets. So, you know, I probably
could have done it, but. But can I ask you, okay. And then I do have to go after this. The point
that Jaguars bringing up here, that it adds to your cash pile that gives you opportunity to make decisions right now what if you roll up in the genius one from the 10 say
we're at 15 and you roll up from the 10 to the 12 50 and then you go in with that difference of
the premium you take out you go in and buy more so now you have control of more stock at a higher
price like the kind of point is is you get stuff with to cash to make decisions right now, and you guys – you're a good trader, so we can do stuff like that.
If my BP management was constantly at the edge and I needed to worry about that, then that would matter.
But I don't.
where my options, my deep in the money options in Kratos or in Genius or in any of my other deep
in the money options positions are like robbing me of flexibility in the portfolio. Like, no,
they're positions that are absolutely fine. Like they're not, they're not oversized positions
where I'm like, oh, I need to, I need to rotate some buying power out of that, you know? So it's-
Two years is a long time and getting some of that, that value
right now to read. I have no intention to sell those contracts though. I have no intention to
sell those contracts. Those are functioning as shares. Essentially. I've known like I've,
I'm really bullish on Kratos. So I have no, the simple thing I'll just say to this real quick because I know, Evan, you have to go, but the delta simply represents how much a contract, you know, represents the shares, right?
So if a particular call contract has, let's say, 60 delta, that means that it represents 60 shares.
You know, technically one contract is 100 shares, but then you multiply it by 0.60. So that means it will control 60 shares. Technically, one contract is 100 shares, but then you multiply it by 0.60. So that means
it will control 60 shares. That means that for every $1 move higher in the underlying,
that contract value will go up by 60 cents. And as the contract gets deeper and deeper and deeper
in the money, the delta goes up. Ultimately, there comes a point it becomes
80 or 90 delta, which means for every $1 move higher in the stock price, the contract will go
up in value by 80 and 90 cents. So that means at that point, it is very, very closely resembling
the performance of the underlying as the price keeps going up. So like every other institution does it there comes a point when the position
gets so size so big where you know it would just make sense you know what i can peel 10 20 percent
of it because the stock is still in my direction by simply rolling let's say a 90 delta to a 70 delta or 75, still a very deep in the money position that
is mimicking the stock price very closely.
You're cashing out and as the stock still goes up, that 70 delta will grow again.
It will go to 75, 80 and 85.
You are not really losing tremendous amount of control of the shares, essentially, as the stock just continues to go up, while you're peeling profits along the way as you roll deep in the money high delta position.
That's where I was trying to get at.
The difference where it makes is optics.
is optics. Naturally, if you have a position that is 10x, that's deep in the money, and you sell,
let's say, half of it, when you're looking at your portfolio, you're still going to see big fat gains,
even though you sold half of it. You're going to see a lot of green. That's different than saying,
oh, I had a position that was up 10x. I rolled it from a 90 delta to a 70 delta.
It's a brand new position now,
but my P&L column shows zero gains, zero losses.
It's a brand new position.
And that's where I think the psychology comes in,
and I think Stock Talk spoke about this momentarily,
where, you know, and then the market dips,
goes down a little bit.
The difference for this
guy who's rolling is going to be potentially staring at a loss. Okay, now I'm down 20% on
this or 10% on this versus a guy who simply took some profits and then going to say, well, you know,
I was up 10x and now I'm up only 8x or 7x. I'm still...
or seven acts. I'm still
sorry I had a phone call coming. It's the mental psychology that comes in
with that sort of difference. But in the long run, you know, I mean, rolling, and again,
Stock Talk will disagree. Everybody does it. Rolling is the way to go. It's, you know, it's the
mathematically a person that is rolling and maybe even increasing the size to go. It's, you know, it's the mathematically a person that is rolling
and maybe even increasing the size to control even more and more shares,
meaning never taking the dollars off the table,
rolling the entire position to a higher strike,
and getting more contracts along the way to keep all the dollars in play.
I call this in general.
Someone really wants Jaguar.
Yeah, I know.
Sorry about that.
I call this in JAG role and double strategy.
We have done that many, many times too.
Anyway, the point is this, right?
So in the long run, a position that just continues to work and work and work,
you want to control a lot of
shares because Delta will only get bigger and bigger as the stock keeps going up and up and up,
right? You want to control increasing number of shares and more and more shares. You roll it and
you increase the size. Keep all the dollars in play. You roll a 90 delta position to a 70 delta position and get more contracts. Then that
position becomes 90 delta, roll it again, get even more contracts. You're never taking a profit
off the table. You're keeping all the dollars in play and that strategy will far superior returns
than the one that is just buy and hold a very deep in the money high delta
position forever and ever because all it is doing at that point is just representing what the stock
is doing anyways uh i have this phone call keep coming so i may drop off here too in a minute
i just want to say there's some comments down below one really made me laugh guy had you both blocked
which i think is funny dumb I thought this was a fantastic conversation
and I miss these kind of back and forth.
So make sure you're following Jag as well.
We appreciate you for coming in.
But Stock Talk,
do you have any kind of final comments in on that
and we'll close this up?
No, I mean, yeah.
I mean, my performance speaks for itself.
I think I do great in the markets
and, you know,
everyone has a different style.
And, you know,
Jag is very, very convicted on everyone rolling everyone rolling i mean i know a lot of people that don't roll and do really well um i don't i
don't think everyone rolls i think there's a cohort of people that do and i think the the
big assumption that makes all of that math work is that the markets just relentlessly go up and the stock you're in relentlessly goes up and that's been a pretty safe assumption
the last couple of years so you know I won't knock that assumption in the last
couple of years certainly but there's gonna be scenarios where that doesn't
happen and in those scenarios I think holding deep in the money contracts is
easier to do and I also think I don't mind, at least personally, my contracts representing
share ownership, even directly, even if it was a one-to-one correlation, because it's less capital
allocated. In some cases, one-tenth of the necessary capital to control those shares. And that is leverage without taking actual margin dollar leverage.
That is leverage in the sense of controlling huge lots of shares for lower amounts of buying power and doing so across multiple positions that you wouldn't be able to own in the same size without doing so.
So it's just a difference in philosophy and opinion.
And again, if both you
know if whatever works for you works you know for those out you out there that are rolling and it
works well for you and you're able to just um you're constantly winning on it do it you know
if you're out there and you're holding contracts that are deep in the money and using it to control
positions that you couldn't otherwise control great if that's working for you keep doing it but
you know it's good to get differences in opinion. So I'm glad Jaguar shared his details
on that. Uh, but it's good to get different perspectives on, um, what you might want to do
with, uh, with, with your options exposure and how you might want to use it. So, yeah.
I appreciate you guys
have a great one team
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We appreciate you all. Catch you all tomorrow. Thank you.
