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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: June 9, 2025 Duration: 2:00:16Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, analysts dissected Apple's latest event, highlighting new product launches and partnerships with OpenAI, while also expressing concerns over the company's innovation pace compared to competitors. The conversation underscored trends in AI integration, potential growth opportunities, and the challenges Apple faces in maintaining market excitement.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. anybody's speaking or i'm just not hearing anything
nope uh i was trying to uh get some invites sent out there and get people up here yeah it was just
uh just making sure no you're good You never know with this application. But yeah, welcome in. Monday,
noon the 9th. This is the day that I really thought Elon was going to do something with
Robotex. To be 100% honest, just based on the date. But either way, here we are. And it's
Monday. We've gone pretty much nowhere, but mostly positive, I guess uh apple had their wwdc event they announced some great features
that samsung had seven years ago and um yeah some new flicks of the wrist i think i saw and a
interesting song there at the end president trump is speaking right now he's or they're broadcasting
this kind of panel with some investment stuff. Michael Dell is also there making some comments.
And the market itself, I mean, we are not much different than where we were Friday.
A little kind of dip in the morning and then rip back to the highs, just over the highs of Friday.
Up $2 on QQQ, that's 0.38%.
But basically $2 also on SPY, we're at 601, that's 0.38%. Basically, $2 also on SPY. We're at 601.
That's 0.32%.
We did clear the $600 psychological level, as well as $6,000 on SPX.
So those are positives.
IWM's up a percent today.
It's been outperforming a little bit.
Tesla, which we had a long discussion on last week with everything that was going on,
just above $300 now, up 2% on the session. Microsoft continues to make all-time
highs, just slowly grinding up a little bit more and more. And that's about it. Amazon having a
pretty solid day, as well as Google. NVIDIA has kind of been fading throughout the day, just kind
of hanging in here. And that's all I've really got. There's some other things, obviously, that
have been moving a little bit that I'm sure we'll hear about. I know,
you know, Stock Talk was talking about several of these, but we'll start throwing around options,
Mike. We'll start with you and see what have you been trading? How was your day in the market?
Anything sticking out to you? Obviously, the China and U.S. talks just a headline right now
that they will continue tomorrow over there in London.
Yeah, so, I mean, that's good news.
It's kind of just been one of these slow grind-ups today.
You know, no power.
Very hard to find power.
By volume is 34 million shares with, what, 55 minutes to go.
It's pretty low.
I've gotten a little roughed up today.
I don't think I'm quite back to green i
took a bad trade on meta and you know after a bunch of good ones last week uh got caught with
that but made some money trading tesla a couple times alongside on uh second time on nvidia and
some calls out into january or july now and you know it's just one market that it continues to
focus on the semis and big tech and it's melting up microsoft all-time highs as you said it's just one market that it continues to focus on the semis and big tech and it's melting
up microsoft all-time highs as you said amazon's having a nice breakout move here palantir a nice
big move back up today i didn't trade boeing i wish i had i thought about it but boeing a big move
today up almost 10 bucks not quite nice big move there you know everything seems fine mstr is on
highs as it's getting a little bit of a pop
here today with some of the crypto news and some of the fake crypto news arm nice little move back
up here today amd nice move up i mean the market just has this flow summerish vibe to it it's strong
the thing you can't do is chase these little pops. These little pops, they pop up and then it reverses right back in your face because it's just a lot of sellers out there.
I was actually looking to trade Circle this morning.
They had options out today for the first time, but never gave me a reason to get into it.
I didn't want to short it because I just don't want to get in front of a freight train like that.
So overall, it's holding in fine.
We've seen CoreWeave have another nice little pop back up today, almost back to that all-time high.
It remains extremely strong.
Hood not going into the S&P 500, down about 5%.
I bought some on Friday.
I will buy more if it gets down towards that 67 area.
But otherwise, holding above the 8-day here, and it feels just fine.
Same thing with APP, you know, beating up a little bit here,
down a little bit more, but also had a cautious comments out there on that one and some insider selling.
But, you know, bottom line is the market remains overall strong.
Cannot not talk about the Apple event.
And if you're an Apple developer, I mean, it was great.
Liquid glass display, you know, the look was fine.
They didn't discuss AI.
They, you know, they just mentioned that they're using chat GPT's images now or bring into it.
But there was no really AI discussion or strategy.
The features they brought in, I think you mentioned a lot of them, phones like Samsung and Google and apps like Microsoft have had in it forever.
It just wasn't a needle mover from the stock. It was some cool
stuff. And if you're an Apple user and you have their products, you're going to love it.
But it doesn't make people want to go out and buy Apple or make you go out and buy a new phone or a
new laptop or anything like that. So, you know, just kind of not the thing to be there. Oh,
and I can't forget Google's having a nice breakout day as well. So,
you know, they're still hanging with these big tech names.
Yeah, it seems like there's a few other little pockets and thematics around that are moving or
continuing to float up higher. And just in general, most of the market just floating up higher. They're
kind of taking turns. I watched it, and I know you probably noticed this options mike the divergence we saw with you know off the open spy the s&p much weaker and then those
kind of switch places about noon like noon to one o'clock they like switch switch places it's
also broadening out yeah it's it's just kind of how this market's trading right now it's not
it's it's it's it's not trending it's kind of just trading right
everybody's just kind of moving around uh trying to find some type of momentum and there's not a
lot of momentum to be had out there right now you know ionq had a big pop pre-market but sold off
as soon as the market opened um you know it's just it's very hard to get that momentum and you
you know if you try to chase momentum in this market it's generally not working so you got to kind of find the names you want and focus on them and stay with them
you know i continue to be very long this market in my long-term account you know i'm still sitting
in snow i'm still sitting in ivit amazon which is looking fabulous uh nvidia i'm out of at this
point uh but i do have some options there now the q's the spy i'm in black sky as well i'm out of at this point uh but i do have some options there now the queues the spy i'm in
black sky as well i'm just trying to see where we go you know it's just finding what's going on and
just you know looking for dips to buy and market feels fun you know all-time highs now as you said
we're above 600 or 6 000 all-time highs are not far away? No, not at all.
So you look at SPY, you look at the all-time high that we made intraday,
and we are at the high today, we're less than 2% away from that, 1.95.
And, you know, since Mike, me and you talked about this a little bit,
on Stock Talk made the comment as well,
when price moves up rapidly like it did,
a lot of times you either get a pullback or you get some type of time
consolidation. And that's basically what we've gotten is this time consolidation. And then now
just a slow grind to the upside. No real reason to spook the market or sell off right now. We still
don't. But at the same time, we still have half of a trade deal in place. We're still waiting on
the tax bill. There's still a lot of things that we're waiting on to happen in this market to kind
of give us a little bit better direction. But but until then it just seems like there's just a constant bid under this market
slowly pushes up higher it's just shrugging it off it just isn't you know you don't care i mean
i think i think a month from today i think it's what july 9th is the deadline when all the tariffs
go back into place and we have one deal so three months three months one unsigned deal one agreed to in terms deal yeah so i look
at this and say okay uh there's a lot that's either going to happen next month or things
will get dicey but for now the market's just saying meh okay yeah well evan i don't know
if you meant to come in right uh or not, but big day for you.
What are your takeaways from Apple?
I do want to hear about the Apple event today.
Oh, never mind.
He rocked.
Figured he was getting unmuted on accident.
Shai, let me go over to you next.
Great to have you up here.
I know you're under a little different branding name right there.
So shout out to that.
Congrats on that.
What are your thoughts around this market? What have you been watching and trading?
Not hearing you, Shai. I saw you unmute, but I'm not getting any audio.
It wasn't letting me unmute, but sorry.
All right. We'll get Shai right back um evan are you here now do you hear me do you not yeah i do i do hear you now okay uh shy if you'll drop i'll bring you right back up uh evan i want to ask you
about wwc fantastic apple events you know what is over here talk mike is over here talking about
the deal but you know what
what a beautiful deal but that one deal we have is so great the best deal in the world
no i'm kidding um i don't know we'll see i just i was interrupting there to make a joke
from what the apple event i was watching it and like i was hoping something would just like
really stick out to me nothing super exciting is fun like there's a lot of fun new features privacy that even when I'm talking that whole time sorry hello hey
we actually heard absolutely nothing you said until just now which is kind of crazy that it
just randomly cut in how are you doing sir that's so sad uh literally didn't even hear you say hello. Oh, my God. Take a second shot at it, Shai. Hey, great to hear your voice now, finally.
Hey, Shai.
Hey, guys.
Okay, well, yeah.
So Apple events.
Let me go read back.
So it was disappointing.
They set off the tone from the get-go that there was going to be no real AI news.
And that was a pretty big tone setter on the rest of the hour that there really wasn't any
kind of real updates on the Apple front it felt still more defensive than offensive and that's
been the real takeaway for me specifically that I don't know Apple just really hasn't innovated to
the extent that the Microsoft Amazon not uh the metas the Googles have done. But I did some of the things that this morning's note
that we sent out at Futurum that we were hoping
that this was going to be much bigger
than just a standard product event,
especially when they're trading it over 30 times earnings.
They've clearly are behind their competitors
and capitalizing on the AI thematic.
And the core question I've always had recently on Apple
on how are they going to capitalize on the future of computing
because AI agents are here
and the Gentic AI future about to enter is just getting started.
And it doesn't mean that Apple should be ran off
because historically their edge has always been the privatization of what they do nobody else can compete with uh them owning the full stack control i mean they own
design software distribution like silicon uh they have so much consumer data and even if open ai
creates some kind of competing far from like far left field product that might create a hardware device
that's going to be the first competition of its kind for iphone in the next five years it's going
to be difficult to compete with them due to that privatization of that full stack control that apple
has however i do think that's uh i think it was mike who mentioned this like their mode has
been around the device polish and like ecosystem integration.
Today, we got more glimpses of that, but none of that really was, in my opinion, capitalizing, like moving from the apps to agents, screens to presence and like everything that you need to do from a hardware mentality to the agentic layer environment that we're about to enter where like microsoft's embedding copa
across all their windows like google's uh really doing a great job becoming that connectivity
layer across all their suite of products and they're turning gemini into a operating system
wide layer that really is getting discounted in my opinion and then meta is also just doing the
thing where there's clearly capitalizing
on ai agents like i do think that what we got today was somewhat disappointing i'm shocked
those stocks not reacting as aggressive as i thought it would but maybe if you zoom out like
it's it's not it's been lagging a bit so maybe that's the reason but i don't know i i think that
i think they're gonna definitely participate in the race i just that I think they're going to definitely participate in the race. I just don't think they're going anywhere anytime soon.
And I just feel like something messed up today where they were hoping not for a Hail Mary,
but there was something in the works that that just did not get pushed over the finish line and ahead of time at this today's presentation.
And it was just a dud. You can't. I would love if anyone else disagreed with me,
but I think today was just an absolute dud for innovation,
Apple innovation, or maybe this is the status quo of Apple innovation.
I think dud's a good word, Shai.
It just doesn't move the needle.
I mean, it's just nothing exciting.
Yeah, it's weird though too,
because I know that they do things in secret like
they're they innovate behind closed doors so it's really difficult to say that they're missing
because they just that's just the way they operate however i don't think the market is looking for
ios redesigns i don't think we're looking for ipads to look more like Macs. I don't think we care too much about
the unveiling of the live translation
or creating two emojis
combined into one. Or liquid
glass.
On the live
translation though, that is AI.
There was a lot of AI features here that weren't
branded as AI. So if you
start to see those actually working
and moving in that
direction, you know, then them delaying the series, obviously really not good. But I wonder if that's
happening here. Because what I heard a lot of this event was a lot of AI powered features not being
called AI. That might be the case. But I think maybe for me specifically, when I should probably
preface on what I mean by AI, because Evan's absolutely right. There definitely is somewhat of agent behavior
across their suite of products, but for me,
I'm talking about API access
for LLMs, a Siri
2.0, I get
that it's coming. I think they did give
AI API access for LLMs,
for their in-house LLM
or whatever, the on-phone, on-device LLM,
I believe. Which is crap,
I think, though. That's the thing.
I think they're going to make a splashy acquisition.
I really do think it's going to be a perplexity-like player.
My tin hat, if you want to hear my real wonky tin hat, is they have not capitalized on consumer
AI yet in the years 2027.
They acquire OpenAI, and Sam becomes the CEO of Apple.
That's my real big tin hat thesis on like,
if they can capitalize on an agent layer,
like to the point where it just prevents people from scrolling or just having to
do the tedious, tedious things,
your finger and stuff just reacting and they do it for you.
And the AI personality experiences like there's very elementary right now. tedious things your your finger and self just reacting and they do it for you and the ai
personality experience is like there's very elementary right now and i think it needs to
be more evolution yeah so i i have i i hear you but i have one problem with that apple never
spends money on acquisitions and open ai is worth what these days 100 billion i mean what's what
are they the valuation they got funded at last perplexity billion no i 100 percent hear you but i think
there's a premium on who the new ceo they want it to be and i agree like that's not their way but
their way has not been working on innovation for since tim cook left i i agree i'm just i'm just
pointing out that one thing i'm not i am not trying to say you could be right i mean but
that's they would have to spend 150 200 billion dollars oh that's just not going
to be honest probably higher because i think they just reported 10 billion arr and yeah i think
they they are they do have a splashy narrative now with john ives coming under the hood and
creating a apple like competing products so they're going away from that lm as a commodity
narrative to becoming like a really exciting mega
cap type of company but I also don't I still don't think they're gonna go
public anytime soon and that's like the maybe the pressure are we heading
towards trillion-dollar private companies I mean there's one or two
companies there that are on some exponential growth lanes 300 billion
what's the incentive growing public really right now? Because the up rounds that are experiencing the private rounds
are just way above any kind of comp in public rounds.
The only reason you go public is because your investors
who have bought up and finally insist upon it, right?
They want a return on their investment.
That's the only reason you go public.
Exactly.
Or because you don't have a network of unlimited money.
Sam and Elon don't need to take companies public if they don't want to
because everyone in Silicon Valley will give them money if they ask for it.
It's part of the reason why I think Elon has complete flexibility with SpaceX and Starlink
and whatever he chooses to do that.
And I think everyone says like, OK, you only go public if you need the capital.
But I think for them, they don't need the capital.
Even if those companies get four or five hundred billion dollar private valuations, they can continue to raise in the private markets.
the private markets. And that's not the case for everyone, right? If you're not well known and you
And that's not the case for everyone. Right.
don't have a reputation that you can just raise money on speculative companies at crazy valuations,
then you're not going to be able to do that. But Sam is one of those people that can do it.
100%. And they're also seeing the narrative issue that Google is experiencing. Like if you
know the space, you know Google is executing absolutely, not flawless, but really compared to their evaluation, they are just really, truly executing, but they can't shake that narrative that search is going to be disruptive, which is an absolute reality.
But their consumer side of their business is softening, but their hardware side of the business is absolutely expanding through the cloud and also cybersecurity suite, etc.
They're seeing how difficult it is toakin' narrative in the public market.
And search is changing.
It's going to be driven through different ways,
but there's still going to be a huge player in it.
And that's what the people are struggling to come around.
There's still going to be a huge player in search.
They're not going away.
Yeah.
I mean, I just, I think the, not the spotlight,
but like the aura of being a publicly traded company when you're Sam or Elon, like Vishal was alluding to, it's just not there.
Why deal with that political headache?
There's a lot of mental capital that's required being a publicly traded CEO.
And why bother to go through that?
So I don't know.
Again, Apple is going
to, Apple will become a consumer AI player. I have no doubt about that. I just think everyone has to
ask themselves opportunity costs. They're trading above 30 times earnings. Why bother right now?
And I think that's, there's been a pretty prolonged range bound trading for who knows how long. And
if today was any indication of how close they are on really bucking that narrative,
they're a ways away.
So yeah, I'll pass it back to you, Em,
but that's kind of my takeaway on Apple's event today.
I'm biased. I'm so biased.
I still strongly believe Apple will be
bringing AI to people's everyday worlds
more than any other company over the next couple of years.
And it doesn't sound like it's going to be apple tech apple ai sounds like it's going to be someone else's and maybe it's an acquisition or something like that but the device the the entry into that
area uh is still very sticky and uh meta epic games everyone is finding out what what that's
worth and they're trying to disrupt it in the next lane. The question is how quickly our VR glass is going to get here.
I think the stuff I heard with OpenAI and the Johnny Ive thing,
like, what they actually,
the rumors are of what they're doing is really uninteresting for me,
but maybe I'm just not seeing the actual vision,
or maybe it won't actually come to that.
But, you know, what Mark Zuckerberg is doing,
specifically with those Ray-Bans glasses,
where I'm looking at Apple as the risk and the Vision Pro addressing it.
But even if that doesn't come, Apple is going to be the entryway for everything, for what all these people do, because they're foothold on the most important devices of our lives.
Well, when you say bring it to, I mean, is Apple not just bringing it to at the App Store and just taking their 30% off the top or whatever?
Because almost every feature that they're kind of, even the translation stuff, I have probably five apps on my phone that already do that.
Yeah.
No, I think, yeah.
I think the point is, is that it's coming through you through your Apple device, you know, whether they're getting it directly or a 30 cut which you can argue could be changed
the question is is will the person's next phone still going to be an iphone is that ecosystem
strong i know stock talks can come here and talk about passive flows thousand dollar accounts to
every kid question mark incoming i wonder where that money's gonna go that's just bullish for the
markets in general yeah and apple like gonna get like 10 of that i read that and i was like let's go so i don't know um i hear what you guys are saying but my question of is like are we gonna
all get samsung are we gonna get all pixel phones or something like that you know is the ray-ban
glasses uh gonna be something i find that more interesting than the open ai pin but i know we
debate apple all the time so i won't belabor this argument and people know
where i stand on it i i do not think the company is an innovator anymore at all
um i think it's the least impressive company in the mag 7 by a wide margin
um but anyway outside of people already knowing my belief on this here's the problem that apple's
facing you mentioned you were talking earlier ev, hey, there's a really good shot that they retain their install base.
Like that people who are already iPhone users remain iPhone users.
I would agree with that.
I don't think that their position, especially in the North American markets, is at immediate risk when it comes to cell phone hardware. But the issue with that is,
is that that market has become globally, a globally saturated. Everyone has a phone,
even people who can't afford food have phones. B, there is obviously an enormous amount of
geopolitical risk for Apple with all of this stuff that's going on with China and their move to India
and what production is going to look like in India, potentially facilities in the United States,
how that'll add to cost and affect margins. Usually when businesses start to face this
challenge, and by this challenge, I mean slowing volume growth in their core business. We've seen
this time and time again. You saw this with Microsoft back in the early 2000s. You saw this
with Tesla, with the EV car business four or five years ago.
You see this with all the juggernaut companies.
Eventually, their core business gets saturated.
It hits a wall, growth slows, and they have to find a way to float the stock.
The best way to do that is to improve margins.
And so most of the Mag7 leadership companies have taken software initiatives of some kind to drive margins
higher in the absence of expected growth in the core business. The problem with Apple is, is this
is now the second time that Apple is deferring that obligation to another company. They did it
with search through Google, right? It gave the Google partnership, which was a huge benefit to
Google, also indirectly a huge benefit to Google, also
indirectly a huge benefit to Apple. And now they're doing it again, where they are passing
the baton in AI to say, look, we'll just use your AI and deliver it through the iPhone.
In principle, it sounds good. But when you're a company that is grasping for straws for relevancy,
frankly, and also grasping for straws for growth,
when you forfeit the ability to control that software component, you also forfeit the ability
to control the highest margin component of the business. And that is dangerous. It's especially
dangerous when your core business is slowing. So to me, that is the immediate overhang risk for
Apple. Am I going to short the stock?
Do I think it would be a good hedge in a market downturn?
Absolutely, yes.
And if the market goes up, that stock is going to go up.
So that shouldn't surprise anyone.
But is the story faltering?
Yes, I do think so.
And I felt that way a year ago.
I feel even more so that way now.
They are behind the curve in a big way when it comes to software. And it hasn't been a problem for them in the last 15 years because of their ability to, frankly, dominate the cell
phone market. But that is changing. It's just changing, especially in China, where they're no
longer even a top five player, which is pretty striking and should make people scratch their heads. But it's also going to happen eventually in other markets as well,
if they continue to remain behind the ball in their software operating.
So I think it's a great company.
I think they'll probably retain market share.
I think it's probably still worth a couple trillion bucks.
But I do not see a great investment case for Apple
great investment case for Apple and have not seen one for a long time.
and have not seen one for a long time.
Stock, you bring up a great point.
Stock, you bring up a great point. The risk of phones going up in cost big time from the
geopolitical, right? Everything with Trump going after Tim Cook, even if a China deal is worked
out, you know, China, Apple is potentially facing their own tariffs just because, you know, people
will not, the average person will not be replacing their phones as often at that point. And the cycle will go on, will go up the same thing with their computer hardware.
And, you know, Apple's always built itself on this eco verse where people are just constantly
going out and buying the latest and greatest that Apple has to offer. You start getting iPhones,
$1,500, $2,000, it's going to slam the brakes on a lot of people. It's a great point.
Yeah. And people are like, you know,
anyone who's like sitting around debating
whether that's going to happen, you should not be.
Apple's prices will be going up.
Their costs will be going up.
There's no way around it.
You know, the pivot from China will be a costly pivot.
And at this point, even if Trump does soften on policy,
which a lot of people are saying, look, export restrictions might come off the table with these talks with China.
Sure, I expect the situation to soften from the April 2nd base case as well.
But even if the situation does soften, let's say you get down to 15 percent average tariffs.
That's billions of dollars in additional expenses for Apple, not to mention the additional CapEx they'll need to pivot to India,
Apple, not to mention the additional CapEx they'll need to pivot to India, not to mention
the additional CapEx on top of that they would need to start whatever sort of final assembly
facilities in the United States that Trump is expecting them to start, if they're going
to do that at all.
All of that is expense, and all of that will hurt margins.
And on top of that, you have more competition.
And on top of that, you have no software leadership.
And on top of that, you have no hardware innovation.
So I don't know what, I frankly, again, I hate to be such a hater but like i just don't know what there is to love
about the stock there's not think of a single thing other than the fact that it goes up with
the market and it's a dividend play and they constantly buybacks to support it so
i'm gonna buy this stock because they buy back a lot of this stock. Because it has a floor.
It has a big floor under it.
If you want to dramatically outperform the markets,
I just do not see any reason why you would own it.
Not until they pivot and they come out with something new.
I agree.
They have to win the next era of compute, or else, like, I don't know what.
Like, they have to win the AR VR thing.
And if Meta wins that, then, which I think, honestly think honestly meta is in a much better position, in my opinion, um, then I don't know.
I don't know where the ball goes for.
And why are you not long meta?
Uh, I don't know.
I have enough tech tech exposure in my portfolio.
It's probably a stock that I'd want to own.
Maybe if the markets crash next year or something, I'll probably buy some.
I'm not, I'm in no rush.
I like all the stocks I own. I have like 20
positions open right now.
More than I want. I don't feel
need to jump into meta. But yeah, if I was going to buy
one of the Meg 7 that I don't own currently, it would
be meta for what it's worth.
But probably not at these prices
and maybe on a market pullback.
I don't have Google. I'm kind of really
warming up to Google here.
I'm really kind of warming up to Google here. I'm really kind of warming up to Google here.
I agree with Shai's earlier comments about Google
that they're executing well with Gemini.
I think that's absolutely true,
and I think they probably deserve more credit for that.
My issue with Google is just,
I don't know how to do the risk calculus
on the search business.
That's it.
I don't know how to like, I don't know how
to map out on a 10 year basis, what it's going to look like for Google if search really is replaced
almost entirely by LLMs. And even if Google has market share in the LLM space, they're not going
to have 90% market share, right? Like they've had in search. So like, that's definitely not going
to happen. In an ideal scenario, Google Gemini, let's say, has 30% of LLM market share.
Okay, what's the total LLM market worth?
Today, not much on a profit basis.
Maybe in 10 years it'll be worth a lot on a profit basis.
Maybe.
Is it going to be worth as much as search?
I don't know.
Maybe if they start putting ads in the LLMs, which are probably coming at some point.
But, yeah, I just don't know.
They're cannibalizing their own business to
compete which they have to do they don't have a choice to compete in AI they have to do that but
I don't know how to map that out so yeah for me that's the reason I'm avoiding Google I don't
think it's a bad investment I agree it's cheap here I agree they're executing well on AI I just
can't wrap my mind around the demise of search. I also worry about the Department of Justice constantly after him and the rest of Europe.
Trump's saying not getting rid of his Tesla or Starlink at the White House.
I'm watching it.
So they asked him about the Starlink and the Tesla.
He said, I might move the Tesla around a little bit.
He said, Starlink's a good service.
I'm not going to get rid of it.
They asked him if Elon got physical as well,
and he said not that he knew of. He didn't see anything.
Didn't mean to kill the conversation there, but that was interesting.
I was interested about it.
I also want to get Omar's take in this,
but Mike,
once you finish there and then let's go to Omar for his,
for his thoughts on the Apple event.
Bring him in,
man.
I talked enough today.
Thanks for having me,
guys.
Omar,
I'm tweeting out a bunch.
You got any thoughts on the,
the Apple event from today?
Much innovation.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So a great event today on Google. I innovation. Yeah, so great event today.
On Google, I'll just say,
I think the narrative has shifted a lot on Google.
Back in sort of the dawn of ChatGPT,
you really heard people harping on this sort of narrative
that it's going to be the demise of the search interface.
And I think that's obviously true to some extent.
We all probably in this room use ChatGPT for a lot of queries that we used to use Google for.
But Google has put up a pretty strong showing. They've integrated AI into their basic search
product. Their Gemini models are some of the best in the world. So I think from my perspective,
that risk has been mitigated a little bit. I think they are going to be a player in sort of creating that next generation search experience. And, you know, they are obviously sort of a large, near monopolistic company, hence some of the DOJ investigations. On the subject of Apple, you know, Apple is, I think, one of the greatest businesses
in the world. But it's clear that they've gone from disruptor to disrupted. They used to be the
predator. Now they're the prey. And, you know, they've kind of had an embarrassing time trying to get into the AI space.
A lot of their AI features, like the new Siri, were delayed indefinitely.
They announced that last year.
They never shipped it.
They didn't give any more details today.
They said, we'll give you updates throughout the year.
That's not really a great sign.
But what we saw today was them really leaning on some of their competitive strengths. will give you updates throughout the year. That's not really a great sign.
But what we saw today was them really leaning on some of their competitive strengths, such as their chips,
and talking about on-device LLMs.
They've got a new foundation framework
where app developers can tap into the on-device LLM,
and they don't have to go out to OpenAI or Google
or use those APIs.
They can run that on device.
Now, it's going to use battery and not be as good, not be as smart as the model in the cloud.
So we'll see how much people actually use that.
But they're kind of leaning into their strengths there and also leaning in on ChatGPT and OpenAI to fill the deficiencies in their product.
and open AI to fill the deficiencies in their product. Their Image Playground product, for
example, you guys probably have it on your phone, is a total joke in terms of the images it generates
compared to something like ChatGPT image generation, which we've all seen the memes of.
So what did they do? They just took ChatGPT and brought it right into Image Playground,
brought it right into their features, so you can just send your data to that model instead of Apple's.
It's very unusual for Apple to be linking to a third-party service this way.
And a little bit of a head-scratcher when you look at the Johnny Ive OpenAI partnership.
I mean, OpenAI has literally bought Apple's former designer, the guy who made them famous, and they're working on a device together to disrupt Apple.
So is the support they're giving to OpenAI really wise long term?
Probably not.
I think Apple used to be a company that was building the future of computing.
Here they're really doing what they do best.
They're revamping the UI.
They've got a bunch of nice features.
I'm sure it's going to look really nice.
I haven't had a chance to play with it yet.
But they're not really making moves to be a leader in AI.
They're just sort of doing what they do best.
So in the short term, not much is going to
change, right? They're still going to sell a bunch of iPhones. Growth is pretty much gone
from a hardware perspective. But this kind of change won't happen overnight.
But the future of computing, they used to be a company that really showed us a vision for what the future of computing is. And what we saw today was really an evolution of the last generation computing interface, the same mobile and computer interfaces we've been using for decades.
using for decades. What they didn't really show us is a whole new way to do computing.
Concepts that, you know, companies like OpenAI and Google are showing us.
So I think they'll be okay short term. I'm not sure how any of this necessarily helps them sell
more devices. It'll come out to a free software update. And they're doing what they usually do but like I said they've sort
of moved from predator to prey and they're in danger of I think being disrupted in a big way
if they don't try and figure out what their vision for the future of computing is
I think they think it's vision pro the future of computing is.
I think they think it's Vision Pro.
Not, well, not Vision Pro, but I think they think it's AR, VR.
Yeah.
Wearables.
Yeah, I mean, you know, the Vision Pro is an interesting product.
Obviously, it's overpriced.
It's been a commercial flop.
It's got really interesting technology, but they haven't managed to package it in anything that is palatable to consumers.
When you look at what Meta has done, for example, with the Ray-Ban glasses,
that has been a winning product formula where you take a pair of glasses that looks like a normal
pair of glasses. You put some AI functionality, some
camera functionality in that. They're rumored to be working on a product that sort of clones that.
But, you know, the positioning of the Vision Pro makes me wonder if Apple's leadership
really has what it takes to create a huge new product growth category, right?
There's a sort of art to it, deciding what goes in the feature, you know, what goes in the device,
how it's designed, you know, the battery pack that's hanging off the Vision Pro due to its weight.
I think really what this company needs, they have some incredible assets, right?
Their technology, their software, their chip making, their design, their supply chain.
It's some of the best in the world.
But I think what they really need is a leadership change at this point.
And they need a new leader who is a product visionary.
leader who is a product visionary, somebody who can guide the company through this AI revolution
that is completely changing the way we use computers, right? I mean, Apple's whole moat
has been computer interfaces that are easy to use, simple, nicely designed, easy to use.
In this new world where the computer is smart enough to actually understand what you want to do,
well, why does it matter if the interface looks that nice or not?
It actually matters how intelligent the system is, if it can understand you.
And if it can understand you, you can just speak to it, and you don't have to use an interface at all.
So this is really, I think, one of the most serious threats to Apple in a long time.
Google seems to have, I think, navigated it pretty well relative to Apple.
Apple is just kind of stuck standing there like a deer in the headlights.
And we'll see what happens. Time isn't out for them yet, but we didn't see any moves today that I think would reassure
investors in terms of their growth trajectory.
By the way, more Trump-Elon comments.
Tesla stock now up 4.4% at 308.
More comments like, Elon Musk, whatever, wish Elon Musk well.
Haven't thought about speaking with
musk but i would imagine he wants to talk with me so he's like no calls planned but open to it
it sounds like a little bit of a door left open tesla stock is responding nicely to that one
you just saw a massive de-escalation of events yes it's uh cooler heads for them
yeah guy yeah there were there was a lot of fears last week after that insane $150 billion move wiped off the market cap of Tesla.
People were talking about nationalization of SpaceX.
They were talking about the Trump administration possibly taking punitive actions,
maybe not allowing their self-driving software on the road or something to that effect.
Based on some of their comments, you know, the deep escalation, I think, by Trump, Elon
deleting some of his tweets, I think the market is sort of paring back some of those expectations
of sort of a worst case scenario.
But it'll be interesting to see where the relationship evolves from here.
I need some cyber cab news in Austin. What were you saying, Sam?
I mean, I don't think that, I think what really got priced in was just the fear and uncertainty
of what was going to happen with Tesla, with Elon going on Twitter and everything. I mean,
now that that's gotten de-escalated, it's kind of similar when you look at the April lows in the
market. Even if some tariff news did re-escalate again, we would not visit those April lows.
You'd have to introduce a massive amount of uncertainty out of nowhere.
And that's kind of what happened with Tesla last week.
So to bring us back down to those levels, you need to introduce more uncertainty to the market,
but also at the same time, some backing on that narrative for the uncertainty that started the whole thing out in the first place.
uncertainty that that started the whole thing up in the first place like you like you said like
you mentioned deletion of those tweets uh no no news growing over the weekend in terms of anything
new of any escalation remarks and then you have trump going on there today like i i think that's
pretty much putting that all to bed now the question is how is this going to affect uh how
is this going to affect space stocks in terms of the contract spacex has well i think the market's
already telling you what it is right now.
Now that you see ASTS and Rock Lab pull back from their highs of days,
I think the market's kind of stepping it out and thinking like,
oh, well, then that means that the SpaceX –
Anyways, I don't want to get too much into the narrative, but –
What was the story that sent –
I saw ASTS and other space teams were up at the open.
What was that story this morning?
Do we know?
It was this story.
Yeah, it was a demarcification.
Yeah, interesting.
Wasn't there the legato?
Or wasn't there, like, rumors on the legato?
Yeah, that was, like, added, but it was just
across the board. All of the,
like, the logic is, the logic was
if you've got to...
Now we got you, yeah. I heard you were asking what the story was. The story was if you've got to... Now we got you, yeah.
I heard you were asking what the story was.
The story was just... You can continue now, Wolfie.
He had a disconnect.
He's walking, Leo.
It's all good.
Yeah, no, it's just if the logic was to broaden out different services
so you're not all reliant on Musk,
all of the different services that are in the
market, whether it's Rocket Lab for
Rockets, whether it's ASTS for this,
those are all beneficiaries
of that. That was like the main
proponent of it.
I do believe, though, like
the can of worms got open,
it's kind of difficult to close it, even if
they're playing buddy
buddies right now like
i do think this may be highlighted to the us government that they shouldn't solely they have
a key man risk they shouldn't set out to rely on elon musk like companies and the d musk demusk
qualification of like the space stack i think is going to still benefit the asts's and the rock
labs because like this didn't happen in
flip of a switch like the reliance that the us government had on a lot of the elon musk product
they happened over time like the concentration risk i just called out became um over the past
decade but really accelerated in the past five years where uh his companies became embedded into
every single layer of american space and defense infrastructure.
SpaceX didn't just have a monopoly on being a launch provider.
It became, especially after all the NASA drama that happened in the past year,
it became the only path for certain critical missions.
And Dragon was an absolute political piece that Elon played,
but in a way that was unimaginable on the government side of the business where they didn't think he would have the kahunas to do that, especially that quickly and that more reactive.
Like the way he used that pawn, it was very reactive.
It wasn't really thought out. Though, like, Musk weaponized his leverage in the past week, and today is great news for just not as Tesla shareholders, but to be honest, for America.
Because we need Elon Musk to be buddy's buddy with us for us to lead innovation, not just in space, but in so many different avenues like AI for the FSD and autonomy.
the FSD and autonomy. But I do believe that this, uh, there are two, like space and defense is
something that's going to be a national security threat down the line much more than is right now.
And it is a key man risk that I don't think America can afford to kind of have again,
just in case you never know what might, what might cause the reactive nature of Musk to weaponize all the leverage he has on national
security. So I do think that this is still bullish for Tesla Charles, but I do think the tailwind for
ASTS, Brock Lab, even Redwire in a way on the infrastructure component is going to still
continue. That's just my two cents on it. You know, I would caution people against
relying on this narrative that there is going to be much of a diversification in space.
SpaceX didn't get these contracts because they were friends with somebody or got lucky.
They got these contracts because they are the best. I mean, the previous administration hated Musk's guts.
If there was a different supplier they could use, they would have moved to that supplier long ago.
And as a matter of fact, when they were awarding contracts, they didn't go with the sole source.
They actually awarded the contract to Boeing, and they awarded the contract to SpaceX.
You may remember in the first flight of Starliner, which is Boeing's aircraft, there was a malfunction and the two astronauts actually got stuck on the space station and had to wait for a SpaceX Dragon to come get them.
So space is very difficult.
The reliability and cost level that SpaceX can offer is unmatched because they can send the rocket up and reliably get it down.
And then you can send your payload up on a used rocket if you want and it works well.
That's just very difficult for other suppliers to match.
And, you know, I think Rocket Lab is a great company.
I think there's a lot of other great companies in space that are building up this capability.
But I think it's going to be difficult to compete on cost and reliability.
You're right.
Sorry.
Maybe I was misquoted or miscommunicated.
I meant like maybe it would be 90% market share to 80%.
But that 10% is a pretty big deal for a company like Rock Lab and ASTS.
So I think they're going to have a majority market share i'm not saying that there's going to be a new apples to apples uh competitor now with
starlink and spacex but i do think it opened up a door that's not officially closed even after today
that is for the taking of getting some market share from asts and rock club that's what i was
trying to say for that statement but omar you you are right with your sentiment that this is the king
still. Don't confuse that.
Yeah, I think
ASTS, for example, is
expected to get to
$50 million in revenue, I think, fourth quarter.
$40 to $50, somewhere around there.
So, like, any
minor
scraping from SpaceX would really compound that.
So it's the echo, just put numbers around it.
So if you go from like 40 to 45, that's a, it's a meaningful boost to their revenue on
a percent basis.
Um, if you go from 45 to 60, it's even bigger, right?
So it's not, it's not large enough to actually compete like these guys said, but it's not large enough to actually compete, like these guys said, but it's still early enough.
And just from outside of SpaceX, from a B2C perspective,
it's there as well with T-Mobile, Verizon, et cetera.
So if your thought is this is going to replace SpaceX, no.
But if your thought is there's going to be possible diversification in contracts or diversification in payloads and things like that, sure, you could see that and these stocks could definitely benefit.
Well, we're also seeing maybe the other side of that of, hey, the sentiments, the non-demation is what we'll i guess we're calling it now here
um so i wonder how those ones are gonna end up playing out there's also another headline around
supersonic travel that we're gonna make supersonic travel work which by the way it's a funny time for
us to be working with starfighters but um but yeah those are the headlines coming out right now
a couple other headlines that uh may have gotten lost in that with uh the trump uh
elon tesla comments uh we did hear it looks like uh besant and lutnik got out of their meeting
because they both made a comment one of them said good meeting uh that was besant and lutnik said
that talks were fruitful and then trump also mentioned in his thing that he hadn't heard a
report back yet but he figured as soon as he got done,
which he just did finish his comments,
that he would be getting a phone call from
them for the update. Also, there was
a quick update
that talks will resume at 10 a.m.
local time, which is 5 a.m. Eastern
tomorrow morning.
Did we get to everyone on the panel?
I don't think we got to me, Logical, or Sam, but go for it.
Okay, sorry, I was walking away.
Oh yeah, you're good.
Wolfie, you want to go ahead and give the rest of your thoughts on your day in the market
or anything else?
Yeah, sure.
Yeah, so I was pretty more active than I usually am, mostly closing out a bunch of stuff that tended to work.
A couple of things that didn't work.
So, you know, a couple of them were kind of misfortunate.
Went along ACHR on Friday, Archer.
Got a disclosure after hours that ARK had a 5% stake,
basically 4.6%, I think.
Benefited very well from from options
um when we had that when we had that musk um musk trump stuff last week uh i tweeted and i said you
know what i wasn't alone there's plenty of guys on here that that are long rocket lab asd all
long rocket lab asts all that stuff so i'm not going to go into it but just for a trade from
that stuff so i'm not going to go into it but just for a trade from the back of that i tweeted and
the back of that i tweeted and and said on here that asts would be a beneficiary um i think shy
said rocket lab as well they both were beneficiaries i own both of them i took asts though for a trade
i you know just added calls i unloaded all the calls between friday and today out most of them just have a little bit of a roll up now just in
case people went went berserk and got uh parabolic on it but 90 out the trade said last week on
thursday i think i went long uh crisper crsp that i was targeting 200 day for the first move got to
the 200 today on the openosed most of that out.
Peloton making new recent highs.
The bad one for me was I overstayed my welcome in Children's Place.
Was looking for mean reversion setup to the upside.
Got it on the first half.
Flip that.
What's that?
That's just next time do the ticker for that one.
PLCE, Children's Place.
Now, it's a joke.
I missed the first one.
You said you overstayed your welcoming children's place.
Oh, my bad.
Damn.
That was rough, Wolfie.
I'm cooked.
Maybe Wolfie's on Epstein's list.
Let's not make that joke.
Delete the tweet.
Let's not make that fucking joke, man.
Come on now.
Anyways.
Took a trade on Tempest today for options.
I still own the stock, but I took a trade for options.
It's working out for now.
I still try to be in these mid-cap names, small-cap names.
You guys touched on it at the beginning.
Again, touched on it no pun intended um but you
guys you guys talked about at the beginning about how the indexes kind of stay you know i think
options mike was talking about it each kind of stay within a range they don't really have much
juice there's some names that are mega caps that perform others don't apple underperforming meta
and google performing for example microsoft had an all-time high last week so for me instead of trying to pick figure out which one of these mega caps they're going to
target next i've been just bouncing around uh from mid cap to mid cap whether it's a
a catalyst driven thing like like the trump musk fallout whether it's just a dope setup whether
it's a combination it's the best case those are the ones that i'm that i'm
kind of focused on those types of trades i'm kind of focused on and uh that's kind of been working
uh whenever i try to figure out the next mega cap i either don't get them i don't get the full move
that i'm looking for or i get to a point where you know i get um i get stopped out on Apple, for example, last week.
So kind of just focusing on that.
And today for me was just like mostly a deleveraging, selling off what's worked.
If something's not working, re-evaluating it.
I mentioned PLCE.
So that's pretty much it.
You guys were talking about Apple and the AI thing.
I don't think any of you guys mentioned it,
but they did put out a paper on LLMs.
And in the paper, they basically kind of gave the reasoning
for why they're not all in on the AI LLM thing.
They basically said, based on their words, not mine,
that reasoning models increase their thinking capability
proportionally
with problem complexity on the front end.
But as the problem gets more complex over time, that that complexity thought goes down
to zero.
So they're basically saying that the LLMs kind of memorize patterns, but they don't necessarily
think yet.
And that's why they haven't gone all in, among other things.
The paper's out there.
You guys can go read it.
But that was like the main focal point that I thought was interesting.
And then from just their event,
I feel like currently what they're focused on
is just keeping, you know,
whatever their platform is,
whatever piece of their platform
that they have an event for,
whether it's this one that they just had
and where they've kind of highlighted the UI, UX of their software.
I think they're just trying to build integrated pieces
that just kind of keep people in the ecosystem.
I think that's been their playbook for the last few years.
I think they swung and missed on their Vision Pro,
mostly because of what it looks like at the price point.
I think it's interesting that, you know, Meta is getting a lot of the credit now,
but they're actually just replicating kind of what Snapchat tried to do years before that.
They were just a little bit early to market.
And I think that, you know, over time, you guys were talking about it more than that more than i'll cover but you know over time we're going to go from having like a functional device that we pull out and
use to just some of these integrated devices whether they're contacts or glasses or some
other versions of stuff and i think until we get there you know they might do some onboarding
of companies that we've never heard of or that aren't as notable just to kind
of shore up different markets in anticipation of that. But until we get to that point, until we
cross that bridge, I don't think that we're going to see anything like grandiose out of them. Tim
Cook's more of an operator. He's more of a logistics guy. And that's kind of like how they've run the
business the last few years. So just wanted to touch that up.
If you guys haven't read the Apple paper they put out on LLMs and AI, I think it's an interesting read.
You can actually throw it in LLM and get the key points.
So I'll leave it there, and thanks.
Let's wrap the fire around Logical.
How was your day, sir?
We haven't done to you either, and then Brett, too, for sure.
Oh, yeah. Are you still on vacation no I just got back uh this weekend so um adjusting back to
life but uh I should apparently take more vacations because my portfolio was up 10% last
week so pretty nice um yeah I'm at like 44%% year to date performance. I'm feeling quite good about that.
And actually, I feel more bullish in a lot of my holdings than before. And it's not because
necessarily price drive sentiment. I've been bullish for some time on my holdings, but I think that, you know, you'd be silly not to let
price change some of your sentiment because price action is very important to follow.
And it tells you when things are shaping up to the upside. And, you know, half of my portfolio
is allocated to these bios and I talk about them often. And I think we've been beginning to see some green shoots, you know, on Friday alone.
And today it's kind of a whatever day for the bios, which it's really nice to have some
sort of diversification of the portfolio when one thing is working, the other isn't and
vice versa.
So like on Friday, not a lot of things were working, but my bios were working incredibly
well.
Some of them were up like 5%, 10%, 15%.
And so that's kind of how it works in small cap land and bio land.
It's like nothing for a while and then all at once.
And what's really nice is last week we had the FDA with a cell and gene therapy roundtable.
And they basically reiterated all sorts of positive kind of outlook for the sector.
And they're all in agreement to get essentially all of these rare disease treatments out through
approval on a very timely manner. They want to shorten the, you know, they want to
make it more effective, the communication between the FDA and what they require from the companies.
And so it looks like what people were considering to be really like these headwinds are actually
tailwinds. So if you followed any of the bio, um, in a sector, it's been just down,
down, down, down, bad news, bad news, bad news. Uh, and so going back a few months,
you had the RFK appointment, uh, to the HHS. Obviously, you know, he has, he's pretty,
uh, vocal critic of a lot of what's been going on at the FDA. So, you know,
vocal critic of a lot of what's been going on at the FDA. So, you know, bios don't respond well to
that. You get the FDA commissioner ousted, bios don't respond well to that. Obviously, they don't
like quick change like that uncertainty. You get all these news around Chinese biotechs are
passing the U.S. in terms of drug development. You know, U.S. bios don't like that. MFN, Trump's huge executive order, most favored nation against pharmaceutical drugs. I mean,
it's just been bad news after bad news after bad news. And one by one, I think that the price
action, which is something that I listened to, has been telling you that I think maybe we've
priced in too far to the downside. And I think the first hit of that was, so you had, you know,
First hint of that was, so you had, you know, RFK, obviously kind of bad shift there, but,
you know, you get the FDA commissioner ousted. They put in a new guy, Marty McBury. People are
concerned, you know, what's this guy going to be like? The old guy, Peter Marks, was super friendly
to the FDA, you know, approving drugs. You know, what's this going to be like? He goes on an
interview and says, no, no, no, we're not going to approve less drugs. We're going to approve more drugs. Boom. That's great. You know, now one less uncertainty. Then, you know, they bring in this Prasad guy to the CBR director. People are concerned because he's been very critical of the FDA. But then he does like an interview and he basically says, no, we want to get more rare disease treatments out as much as possible. Boom. Another uncertainty off the table.
rare disease treatments out as much as possible. Boom, another uncertainty off the table.
And then, you know, you have the MFM, most favored nation, Trump's executive order
to change drug pricing. And while the XBI was down 2% that morning in pre-market,
it finished plus 4% on the day. So that is a situation where bad news, but the price action
shakes it off and goes to the upside, typically signs of a bottom.
And we have not retested any of those lows. So I would say XBI in general has been holding up
pretty well. It's been digesting this bad news pretty well. And you have a scenario where a lot
of these stocks don't need much to work from here because you're buying these stocks at below cash on the balance sheet. I've talked about many
names that are just cash rich and the valuations are so low. And the stock prices are down 70%
from just a few months ago where the businesses have actually improved and progressed in their
clinical trials or their commercial launches. So you're getting a much cheaper stock price, which is a much lower valuation that you're paying for. Meanwhile, the businesses have
meaningfully improved over the last few months. And the backdrop has actually gone from what people
were concerned is uninvestable to, and which is why the prices have been so low to something where
it's like, oh crap, this thing might actually accelerate back to the upside in terms of approvals and launches, et cetera. So I think when you're in the stock market, a lot of times, yeah, I mean,
the charts don't look great. And that's where I put my fundamental investor hat on. And I say,
yeah, but what am I getting when I pay for this asset? And when I'm looking at the math and I'm
saying, dude, I'm paying like below cash on the balance sheet for this thing. All the upside of the
business is being priced at less than zero. I mean, you don't really need much to go right for
these things to start working. So yeah, some, some of the charts I was bottom fishing for sure,
but the value was so tremendous that I had to take a stab. Um, and yeah, I've been, you know,
I've been stacking and accumulating bios nonstop all year. And I think that we're probably at an inflection point now where, you know, you're going to get some of these days where these things are up 10% or more on each ticker. I wouldn't be surprised as we get more data out.
I think we're seeing green shoots.
I think that these investors in this sector have been absolutely decimated.
It's been considered uninvestable.
And all of a sudden, a few positive headlines means that, oh, wait, is this investable?
Because if so, this stock is trading like probably 50 to 200 percent below fair value.
And that's before we even get into, you know, overvalued territory.
Like we're just so far undervalued here.
So, yeah, I would like to see that.
And obviously, you're seeing the IWM with strength recently. People are talking about a small cap
rally. You have to understand that bios make up a decent portion of the small caps as well.
So, you know, there's just a lot of opportunity here. And we haven't seen as much M&A activity
as I'd like to. Maybe it's because rates have still been high and people are still earning 4% or 5% on their T-bills. But I think at some point that could be an additional tailwind that
is not being factored in quite yet. So yeah, I think if we do get some sort of small cap summer,
this market can absolutely broaden out. And I I, and I was, you know, talking with stock talk earlier, it's kind of like the setups everywhere look so damn good that it's, it's, it's, it frightening me because I think we
all have some sort of PTSD that it's like, every time the setups look so good, I'm concerned because
I get, you know, a bit giddy and, you know, I put on all this exposure and then obviously they fail
back and, you know, want to consolidate longer or then I'm going to have to cause some exposure.
And so, you know, obviously I'm not ruling out any sort of failed breakouts or, um, maybe we
need more time to digest some of these moves to the upside. But, you know, a lot of the names
that I'm focusing on, um, like I'm trying my best not to FOMO chase a lot of names. Like this morning I was
looking at Tempest AI at $61. I didn't pull the trigger. Now every person on Twitter is, you know,
you know, tweeting about that name, uh, you know, 25% short interest that stocks up 10% intraday.
Yeah. I regret not buying it. And realistically, I'll probably regret not chasing it because it
looks like this thing might go to new highs. But I guess what I'm trying to say is like the things that I'm buying I feel
fundamentally like I can justify a lot of the valuations and I don't think that the charts are
overextended in any way and I'm hoping that I'm able to find uh names that have yet to run and
that's kind of what I uh focus on a lot of the time so I'm trying to find this one name that's
been getting some love lately uh ouster o-u-s-t that's been running really well I know a few
people have been mentioning it on twitter I found it from one of our analysts in the discord uh
mystic uh he's been really solid with a lot of these and galaxy is another one uh that had a nice intraday run today on pretty good volume
uh that's glxy there's a lot of opportunities so what i've just been doing right now is layering
on uh so i have like my core positions things that i really like like the ones that i've mentioned
magnite pubmatics um you know the biotechs and, you know, several other positions.
Techogen, TGen is one that's just been running.
It's up like so much.
It chart is unstoppable.
Evolve Technology is another small cap that I like as a core position.
But what I've been doing when this market has been kind of broadening out,
the rally has been broadening out, you know, I like there's a lot of like secondary names, like slightly lower conviction because I haven't
done enough work on them, but I keep adding exposure. Another one is Oscar Health. I think
that one looks pretty nice and couldn't catch the momentum to the upside. The fundamentals look good
there. So I keep adding on this exposure and that's all I'm doing is fundamentally sound companies looking like they're, you know, respecting the charts, slowly climbing out of their bases,
riding moving averages up into the right, but they're not overextended in any way, shape
or form.
And I'm trying my best not to FOMO into things, but more so look for where that next up is.
I don't know if this is relevant to what you're talking about, but I'm seeing this headline
from Bloomberg.
Kennedy removing all members of CDC panel advising on vaccines via Bloomberg.
I don't know if any of the stocks you watch are moving.
Let's see. No idea.
I don't think anything that would do anything necessarily,
but I'd have to see.
I don't think anything I own personally has any issue with that.
But yeah, so I don't know.
Well, we'll see.
But again, when I'm adding all this extra additional exposure, obviously I'm very like,
I'm hypersensitive to any sorts of, you know, market weakness or losing momentum. And I'm
quick to cut things and just, you know, it's fine. I'll take a small loss. Uh, I just don't
want small losses to turn into big losses, especially when I have a ton of long
exposure. And I can just always re-enter them if I feel that the market is, you know, able to
reclaim some ground. Like, for example, like Bitcoin the other day, I got shooken out. I'm
not going to lie. Shaken out, not shook out. But yeah, I mean, I re-entered BTCL today, the T-Rex 2X long Bitcoin today, because,
you know, I was able to find support at the 50 day and it was able to kind of chug back
along and reclaim some moving averages.
So, you know, if it loses it again, guess what?
Yeah, I'm getting whipped around a little bit on some of this volatility.
But just when I'm running such high exposure, you know, I'm willing to, you know, cut quickly, reenter
pretty nimbly. So yeah, that's what I'm doing right now is just having core fundamentally
driven positions and then adding on these secondary exposures and names that I like
the way that they're trading and just, yeah, broadening out and kind of diversifying all
the different sectors that I am along right now.
What's up, Wolf?
No, I'm just going to echo something he said.
He said he did it for himself, but, you know, I think it's important.
It's like an important point.
There have been like, I want to say dozens.
I don't know what the number is but there's been you know
double digit names that you know we collectively excuse me have mentioned in the last few weeks
that have returned like 25 20 25 15 30 somewhere in that ballpark 15 to 30% in a matter of days or even weeks.
Right. So, you know, I, I took Tempest on the breakout personally,
but there are, you know, and I,
and I mentioned last week when we were on the space lemonade, for example,
it's up 31% since we talked about it last Monday.
So the point is not to say, Oh, I took this and I took that.
The point that he made, which I think is the important one is, you know,
if you miss something you miss something there's like dozens of these mid-cap small cap
um setups that are just poised or on the verge of and like have broken out and so if you miss
one just try to find the next one is the point i was going to make um there's like there's a couple
just off the top of my head that like you know you see ccj up today
for example and some of the cohorts aren't so just take a look like um ockler take a look at like
stark talks smr i think is someone he talks about so they're leu but yeah yeah well i'm just saying
that the smr and and also why i was up today too yeah but they're not up as much as ccj right but
yeah they also doubled but yeah exactly but the setup is still there that's the point i'm getting The SMR and... SMR was up today, too. Yeah, but they're not up as much as CCJ, right?
Yeah, they also doubled, but yeah.
Exactly, but the setup is still there.
That's the point I'm getting to.
Now we're at a point where they're not all moving in conjunction.
One of them will rip, and then the other ones are flagging or holding a cup and handle or doing whatever.
They're just moving with their daily charts.
I'm sorry?
They're just moving with their daily charts.
It's not complicated.
The ones that moved up a lot more are just resting,
and the ones that lagged are running.
Yeah, that's the point I'm making.
I'm saying that if you miss the one that's popped,
they're no longer moving all in conjunction.
You get these setups where they're basically going one at a time.
So there's going to be dozens of opportunities,
so you don't have to feel obligated.
Oh, crap, I missed it.
You know what I mean?
That's the whole point I was making.
So I think that that point that he made was pretty important for people who feel like I missed and I'm going to FOMO and all that stuff.
So I just wanted to echo it.
Yep, yep.
There's definitely always another stock.
always another stock. You know, so for me, I have a journal that I share in my discord where I share
everything I do live. You know, I don't mention something after it's run and be like, oh, look,
cool guys, I mentioned this or I don't do any of that stuff. I just tell you everyone exactly what
I'm doing. Thousands of our members see it every single day. I put out the alerts. I share my
year-to-date performance. I share my portfolio. I share the weightings in my portfolio. There's
none of this loosey-goosey stuff from me. I either called it and bought it or I didn't.
And that's it. And everything for the last two and a half years is timestamped in a publicly
available journal, by publicly
available I mean to our members, but there's thousands of members who read it, you know,
on a day-to-day basis.
And you can go back, scroll all the way back for the last two and a half years and see
everything I've done.
You know, I share my performance charts on Twitter.
A lot of people see those performance charts and they go, oh my God, like, how are you
outperforming the market this much?
The reality is, is the proof is in the pudding. You know, I've put a lot of work over 10 years into being a catalyst based stock picker. And frankly speaking, I'm damn good
at it. You know, I don't want to toot my own horn here, but we have been nailing pretty much
everything. You know um in the last couple
of weeks i've been trying to go over more of my portfolio positions on these spaces
last wednesday i think i went over about 10 positions that i own just talked about the daily
setups for those that missed it you can go back last week and listen to the recordings we post
all of our recordings um but everything's working you know today we had some crazy explosive moves
in some of our core names.
Nebius Group, which I first started talking about here a month ago on these spaces,
when I opened the position at 2392, that stock ripped again today and hit 53 bucks for new all-time highs.
The June 20th calls that we closed last week were up 835%.
The Julys that I'm still holding are up almost 400% as of the close. The equity
is up 125%. There's probably 10 tweets from me on MBIS since May, and probably about 50 Discord
posts on that stock. It's a high conviction trade. When I posted the original alert, which I also
shared the screenshot of on Twitter, I said, I'm buying any dips. That was on May 9th.
Stock is now 125% higher in a month's time.
And that has been a monster trade for us.
It boosted my performance.
Performance hit new all-time highs today,
both the year-to-date and on an all-time perspective.
But portfolio is now up 68.
I actually just posted that performance chart. Portfolio is now up 68. I actually just posted that performance chart.
Portfolio is now up 68.2%.
As of the close, it's actually closer to 69.
But S&P 500 has returned 2.19% this year.
Last year, which I also have the screenshot posted there as well,
my performance from last year, we returned 260.21% versus 23.89% for the S&P 500.
No fluff.
No, I called this, I called that.
No mentioning stocks after runners.
Just live alerts, performance, year-to-date charts, transparency.
Frankly, the way I think every trading influencer should do it.
Logical does it as well.
He's one of our team members and one of my buddies, obviously.
And we talk a lot about stocks, but he does it as well. He's one of our team members and one of my buddies, obviously, and we talk a lot about stocks, but he does that as well.
I encourage all traders, influencers out there who are attempting to preach to new traders about how to trade, show them how you're doing.
Show them how you're doing.
Take a screenshot of your main brokerage account.
Post it regularly.
I encourage everyone to do this.
There's really big accounts that I follow that are friends of mine that don't do it. And I've told them to do it. Many of them are shy because
they're underperforming the market. And the reality is, is you shouldn't be taking advice
from anyone or taking preaching from anyone who's underperforming the market. It's just the reality,
you know, because if you were going to do that, you should just buy the S&P 500 and not listen
to anyone at all. So always pay attention when people are outperforming consistently.
Pay attention to how they're doing it and attempt to glean insights from that.
You know, last Friday, I put on an alert 20 minutes, 45 minutes before market close when the Trump executive order came out for eVTOLs.
I felt that the eVTOL component of that order was under discussed because there was a ton of focus on drone stocks going into that executive order.
And so on Friday before the close, we initiated a position in Archer Aviation.
In the $10 calls for October and July, that alert went out about 45 minutes before close.
Obviously, after the close, Cathie would disclose the stake.
That stock jumped higher.
First day of the swing trade for us today on Archer.
And the July calls are up about 120, 829%.
The October calls are up about 70%.
That's on day one of the trade for us for Archer.
So really beautiful start there.
I took some risk off on the Julys just because why not?
I can get them for free.
So I did that today.
ASDS. Obviously, very discussed stock headed in today with Rocket Lab. I posted a chart. Actually, I posted several charts yesterday on some of my open positions.
Archer included, ASDS included, etc. A lot of names that ripped today. But ASTS, pretty simple,
straightforward thesis, right? Follow-up between Musk and Trump, nice catalyst for the stock.
Obviously, today there's a little bit of softening in that scenario, but stocks still close up about 11%. My 25 calls with the June expiry are up a little over 200%. Depending on where the stock
ends up on June 20th, I may exercise those. You know, Tut was sort of teasing me. King Tut,
one of the OG SPAC guys.
We used to trade SPACs together back in 2020.
But he's a big ASDS fan, and he was joking with me when I posted a screenshot of those contracts this morning.
He said, exercise them.
And I was like, you know what?
We'll see.
We'll see where they end up on June 20th.
You know, if the stock's $45 on June 20th, then maybe I take the 25 calls.
I have a $3 cost on them.
It'll give me 28 effective cost basis.
And then I can play ball.
You know, that's what I did with Robin Hood last year, which was originally intended to be a trade.
I had the 15 calls and the 20 calls originally intended to be a trade.
And then I ended up exercising because it was so disgustingly deep in the money when the stock was 50 bucks.
And now I'm Robin Hood shareholder, you know, the 1974 cost basis. So you will have a lot of people out there who say never exercise
calls. I don't agree with that philosophy. You know, the reason people say it is, is because
they think that, you know, you're giving up the premium, which you are, right? The premium paid
for the contracts, you lose that, right? Because it gets added to your effective cost basis. And
so you don't get the profits from
um the initial premium that you put in you lose those whatever however many dollars you paid for the initial premium so yeah from that perspective i get it but here's the thing i don't view options
as a positional sorry i don't view options as a lottery ticket i view them as a positional tool
right i use options as to add a to add juice to my existing equity positions.
When I share my portfolio updates in our server, I share my equity to options weighting ratio.
And it's generally between 85 to 90% equity.
So the vast majority of my portfolio is in common stock.
But about 10 to 15%, depending on how aggressive I want to be,
does get put into options. And not only does it add juice to my existing positions, but a lot of
times I might be either capped on buying power or starting to dip into my margin. And I want to be
smart about how I deploy my buying power. And so in those instances, sometimes I will use
options to get more share exposure than I would have otherwise been able to buy with cash.
Right. Like if I wanted to buy 10,000 shares of something and it's going to cost me three hundred thousand dollars, I can get, you know, a hundred contracts for a much lower absolute dollar cost and preserve my pine power.
dollar cost and preserve my pine power. I've talked about this before, but that's how I use
I've talked about this before, but that's how I use options.
options. And so for me, when I'm, I have long options on a position and I generally don't buy
any more than 10% out of the money. You know, all the options alerts I put out are generally very
close to the money. Like for Archer Aviation on Friday, for example, stock was like 995,
40 minutes before closing. We opened it it i opened the 10 calls that's like
naughty that's basically at the money right um and so yeah would i have gotten a higher percentage
return if anybody opened the 11s or the 12 stock you know broke through 11 today probably but that
gives me the flexibility of when those contracts come up for expiry in october if the stock is 14
15 bucks i can be an owner of the stock at 1083.
You know, so it gives me the optionality to become a shareholder in names that I may be unsure of,
or that I may not have the buying power to become a shareholder of currently.
And so that, that's how I use options. And so for me, I don't find it to be like a huge give back to exercise them
occasionally. I don't do it often, but occasionally, you know, probably maybe a couple times a year,
I'll do something like that. So yeah, that's with regard to ASTS and just like using options
and Archer as well. Obviously, Nebius, I touched on that, skyrocketed today as well.
But so did Coors. We had a nice four and a half percent move into the close, which, you know,
again, I continue to believe this is not only a good exposure for Bitcoin, but a good exposure
for data centers as well and had a nice ramp into the close. I posted this chart this weekend as
well. If you look at the action on this thing
around the 200-day moving average, it's about as clean as it gets, about as textbook as it gets.
So this thing had basically a daily candle push about five sessions ago into the 200-day.
No rejection, though, just a soft push into the 200-day and a close right at it,
which is nice to see. It generally increases the probability of a breakout. Then in the following three sessions, you've got to pop
through the 200 day up into this 1275, 1276 area, and now four straight candles of consolidation
in that range above the 200 day with no signs of a forfeit. That's textbook. Like literally,
that's out of a textbook. And you look at the inclining
90MA about to cross the 200 day as well. Thing can be explosive. I was actually thinking about
upsizing it today. I put some notes out on some of our open positions for our members yesterday
night. And I put this note on this as well. I was thinking about upsizing it today, but I don't love
the volume profile. I generally don't let that steer me in or out of a trade on its own.
Like if I really like the setup and I like the thematic relevancy,
I'm not going to let a lack of accumulation volume deter me from the trade
because there's a lot of those types of trades that work either way.
So I took a position in this either way, regardless of not loving the volume.
Again, I would like to see more volume.
Maybe we get that later into the move.
But I'm fine with this thing building above the 200-day as long as it continues to do so in this picture-perfect fashion.
So not adding to the position here, but I have, I think, 3.8% size on weighting.
So I'm fine with that.
I have room to move it up to a five plus percent allocation if
it does start to run. But that was nice to see on Coors. You know, one name I've been talking about
here a lot recently over the last couple of weeks, and maybe not as sexy as some of these
other higher beta mega performers that I've mentioned, but Warby Parker has been quietly climbing to the upside.
You know, when we got in, stock is now up, what, like almost 15% from where we got in.
And the 22.5 calls for July that I'm holding on that stock are up 80% as of the close today.
On Warby Parker, this isn't a high beta name.
This isn't like a tech name like so many of these others are brought up.
MBIS, Archer, ASTS.
These are high beta, explosive, high short interest names.
This isn't one of those.
This is good old Warby Parker, your little mall eyeglass retailer with the Google AI glasses partnership.
Now just climbing to the upside continually.
Stock was up 4% today.
You know, they hit 2250, which is where my calls are sitting.
When I opened those July 22 and a half, stock was sitting right under 20 bucks. I mean,
this thing holds its strength. Those will go in the money within the next couple of weeks,
as long as the markets hold up. You know, and then I'll be heading into July sitting pretty.
pretty those will probably be up a buck 50 maybe 200 so you know another great win there asds calls
Those will probably be up a buck 50, maybe 200%. So, you know, another great win there.
200 archer aviation calls 150 today nebius uh 40 calls for july 400 i mean these are crazy returns
you know and i we alerted all of these trades before the move you know the proof is in the
pudding and no one has to believe me oh did you do that are you just saying that there's thousands of people that have access to my journal where we marked all of these in fact
evan's in the server you can go pull up the journal right now if he wants larger aviation
call from friday's on there everything all these things i mentioned are on there i don't share them
here live unfortunately always sometimes i do but you know most of that's for our member exclusive
content but um it's been a blockbuster year look I didn't expect to you guys if you guys
want to link with 20% off send me a DM yeah yeah if you want to if you want
Evan to get some get some juice from that go go DM Evan and he'll give you a
little when is that been gonna join guys I think it's been crushing these trades
lately actually not I do have some Tesla calls,
but I was calling out Warner Bros. Discovery this morning
and Fat L.
So we don't talk about that.
Oh, did you take an L on that?
I didn't even look at it.
I did, I did.
I matched it with my Tesla W on this one,
so close to even, we'll say.
But what a rough way to get there.
What a rough way to get there.
That's funny.
I like that you're trading more, though.
You'll get there.
You're an investor.
No, I'm done. I'm pretty much done fuck this you're done you quit already
it sucks how many times have you said you're done in your career oh many times many times
dude dude i blew up my first account in spectacular fashion when i was like 23
you know and yeah that's eight years ago um since then, I haven't, but yeah, it was like all the money I had back then.
I felt like I fucked up.
I was like, maybe markets aren't for me,
but I sat down and, you know,
grinded my ass off for fucking six years
to try to teach myself a way to trade that worked for me.
And yeah, I don't know.
I'm just really happy and really proud of the results,
to be honest.
Like, you know, after last year doing 260%, I did not think I was going to have an outperformance year this year or a big outperformance year.
I thought maybe I'd skirt by with like a 15%, 20% return this year after the way the markets have acted the last couple of years.
But I'm pushing 70% year-to-date return.
The year's halfway over.
Stock talk.
You know what's really funny about this man is like we were
constantly talking when things were in a drawdown and you and i were basically saying like this is
a year to protect the portfolio at all costs and to hold on to our 2024 games because 2024 was such
a great year uh i mean i don't think either of us could imagine what's been happening. This has been an incredible year.
I think rightfully so, but yeah, I just have no words for this year.
Yeah, yeah, I'm very, very surprised by how well individual stock picking has been working this year.
I just frankly didn't expect it to work that well.
But it goes to show that observing the markets, if you really pay attention, if you go on the weekends and like
every Sunday, for example, what I do on every Sunday is I go through every stock I own.
I go through the daily, weekly, and monthly charts, and I take positional management notes.
The purpose of that review is not to find opportunities. The purpose of that review is to give myself perspective
on how the stocks might move over the coming week
and where I may need to take some trims
or some profits or add to positions.
Just that alone takes me about two hours every Sunday
has dramatically improved my performance.
That one step of sitting down every Sunday for an hour or two,
for some of you have less positions, it may not even take you that long. And just scanning through
the weekly and monthly charts. I don't sit there for an hour in front of the charts. I scan through
them. I go, is there anything that jumps off the page to me? Is the stock maybe pressing into an
inclining 9 EMA? Was there a low volume pullback into a 21 EMA moving average that's charted the entire move back up? Things like that where I'm like, oh, oh, that's a spot I can add some more shares. Oh, that's a spot I can sell some. Oh, that's a spot where I can convert some equity into options. Those are the things I look for. And making that small effort to manage your capital as effectively as possible will drive better performance.
It's not just about what you own.
It's how you own it.
Okay?
Do you have enough leverage on your high conviction positions?
Do you have some options juice?
Do you have, you know, is your weighting appropriate?
You know, are you too heavily weighted in your lower conviction positions versus your higher conviction positions?
These are things, if you care about your performance, which all of you should care about your performance,
if you care about your performance, these things should matter to you.
And it's not just about I'm going to buy a stock and close my eyes.
That's great.
If you want to be a passive investor, that's fantastic.
But if you are going to actively manage, I think most people who listen to these calls every day are actively managing.
You need to do those small things that will amplify performance.
And again, like I always say, the proof is in the pudding.
You know, you have access to your own brokerage account,
wherever you are in the audience, go look at it and be like, how am I doing?
And if you're not doing well, then take these steps to do better.
You know, and take them, you know, one step at a time. You don't have to learn how to do better you know and take them you know one step at a time you don't have
to learn how to do everything at once you know learn how to do these things one step at a time
learn the basics learn how to apply them to your trading there's a lot of people in our community
still who haven't learned the basics because they just you know for years have just been
piggybacking on my ideas and that's okay obviously. Obviously, I provide my ideas for a reason. I don't mind if people follow my ideas. But it's hard to sustainably be a great trader or an
investor over a long period of time by not having your ability to generate your own ideas,
by not having the ability to glance at a chart or glance at a thematic or glance at a catalyst and
say, hmm, that's compelling to me.
And to have that personally built conviction.
When you borrow conviction from other people,
like I've been pounding the table on Nebius Group since May 8th, right?
You could have borrowed my conviction and done very well on that trade,
but you probably wouldn't have held it through today
after 125% moved to the upside options up 500 to 1000%,
you probably wouldn't have held it if you didn't have conviction.
You would have sold it after it moved from 23 to 30, right?
Or 23 to 35.
You'd be like, great trade, I'm out.
But I didn't sell a single share.
I didn't sell a single share.
It went from a 3% allocation of me to an over 10% allocation for me in a month
because I didn't sell any.
And that's conviction. Nebius Group
alone is probably responsible for four or 5% of my outperformance in the last month alone,
just one stock in a basket of 20 positions. So Centris Energy, probably responsible for three
or 4% of my outperformance in the last month that's one stock you know so four or five stocks have probably given me a 15 to 20 portfolio boost
in four weeks and in a diversified portfolio this isn't a portfolio where i'm all in on one or two
names this is where i own a broad variety of names. So that shows you how position management, focusing on the right names at the right times
with the right amount of leverage, that's what drives super performance.
It's not like, oh, I picked a great stock and I put a little bit of money into it and
I'm going to make, you know, I'm going to become a millionaire.
Like that's not, that's frankly not how you super perform in markets.
And I'll be honest about another thing.
Some people don't want to super perform.
Some people don't want to put in the effort that it takes
to 10X the S&P 500 performance,
because it does take a shitload of effort.
And if you're one of those people who are like,
I don't have the time to do it,
then ignore everything I'm saying.
Just buy your favorite stocks and just proceed.
But if you do have time,
you are sitting around every day and clicking your buttons,
flipping through your portfolio,
then you might as well,
might as well, you know,
put some skill on the ball and make that time you're spending useful
rather than just staring at your portfolio
with nothing to do.
So yeah, anyway, Warby Parker, beautiful today.
Core Scientific,
continuing to build above the 200-day moving average.
Nebby's group core position for, just won't stop going up. Still not selling any shares.
Like I said, it's become an investment for me. Wants to come all the way back down to the 20s.
Cool. I'll buy more. Archer Aviation, over 11 now. Our $10 call is deep, deep in the money on that one. Didn't sell any of that either today.
ASDS, like I said, took a risk off my contracts,
but still have plenty of those $25 calls expiring June 20th, which I may or may not exercise.
Embraer Jets, nice pop for us today on that one too.
That thing's been quiet lately.
Core Civic, I forgot to mention this.
I did add a little bit to my Core Civic position today.
Now, I moved that from about a a where did i move this from i think it was a see how much the allocation went up hold on yeah so there's a 3.23 allocation prior to today and
then as of today's close the 4.6 allocation so i moved it up but not dramatically um i like to pay attention to like themes obviously
most of my stocks i own are thematically relevant but you know with core civic i think it's
interesting because obviously core civic and geo group those are the two sort of most frequently
mentioned uh border plays i think geo is much more frequently mentioned i think the
core civic chart is frankly just better um i also think if you look at their last earnings course
have to give a very very strong guide um and for those that don't know i've talked about this before
yep i saw a wolf financial tweet earlier they were talking about like you know heavy it was
and they were talking about like axon and some other ones like that yeah yeah sounds popular body can when you've looked at yeah yeah yeah I looked I was looking
at that this morning to actually didn't even check it did it do nicely today I know actually
no it did not but every other time frame looks pretty solid yeah wow time frame analysis what
are we all three guys I just hit WM and then was going through there so not too much here couple couple losses on trades and here we are but yeah i know right now you're now
you're a technical analyst um no what was i saying uh oh yeah core civic so for those that don't know
core civic is um hold on is a u.s border detention play and um so they operate federal u.s border detention facilities
you can just like type into google core civic facility you'll see most of the ones that like
are on the news and all the time and stuff they're core civic facilities but anyway
they get over 30 of their revenue from from ICE. And, you know, stock
gapped up, I don't know, back in November of last year, jumped like, doubled from like 12 to 24.
It's been consolidating ever since above the 50 day moving average for several months. And
I don't think it's really had the catalystic integrity where there hasn't been any like
fresh new catalyst for it. There was also some head headwinds a story came out a couple weeks ago that a judge blocked one of their
detention facilities because it was considered inhumane or something but that was only like a
three million dollar impairment so not really relevant they do like over 550 million dollars
in revenue from ice um so yeah anyway just think the setup's interesting here.
I think Elon's border tweets this weekend are kind of a notch in the belt
that, like, even though Trump and him had a spat,
they're both on the same page about one thing for sure,
and that's border security.
I think Elon's tweets from this weekend kind of reinforced that idea.
So I do expect some excitement to come back into these plays.
Like I said, not crazy high conviction position for me because it has been sort of a laggard and has been choppy last couple of months.
But I did add a little bit to today.
We'll see what it's worth.
I think the stock, you know, it pushed up right above the 921 EMAs today was sitting on the 50.
Sort of a launchpad setup, you know, launchpad setup when a stock sitting on the pinned right between the 9 and 21 EMAs and then burst through them.
I like those setups.
Generally produces a 10 plus percent move.
So, yeah, that's kind of what I'm seeing, of course.
I did add a little bit to that today.
Outside of that, just was enjoying the rally as the portfolio hit new all-time highs.
So, yeah, pretty fantastic year so far.
Fantastic week. all-time highs so yeah pretty pretty fantastic year so far fantastic week um you know and if
you guys are ever interested as always i don't really usually self-help to go sign up but if
you guys do want to sign up obviously the links in my bio um for the community if you want to get
all those alerts live like i mentioned all time stamp but archer aviation nebius group of course
scientific warby parker ast, all of these were called
directly live before they moved in my journal.
So yeah, pretty fantastic year and fantastic week so far.
Sok Tuk, what's your bigger picture thoughts with what we, I mean, obviously we've got
ongoing talks over in London right now. We
have this tax bill that Speaker Johnson is hopeful was the term he used that would pass by July 4th.
So still, you know, basically a month out on, on that today was the lowest volume we've had in a
month, exactly a month. Actually, we had a lower day on the friday the 9th of may but what's your big picture
thoughts here you know what my big picture thoughts are just that i think we the markets
have sort of moved past the tariff narrative for now but i do think it can re-emerge in the back
half of the year based on what happens with china now the thing that we kind of know for sure is, is that we are
going to get a softer base case than we saw on April 2nd. That we know for certain, regardless
of what happens with the China stocks, sorry, China talks. But I think the sort of maybe
overlooked aspect of the macro narrative is the idea that even at 15, 20, 25 percent tariffs, you will have a
dramatic impact on the economy, especially on certain sectors. And so what remains to be seen
is, A, what do the final tariffs look like following the negotiations of China and the EU?
I've said this before, but China and the EU are
the only entities that matter. None of these other countries matter when it comes to the grand scheme
of things. I'm not dismissing other countries. I'm not insulting other people. I'm just speaking
to economic realities. China and the EU are the only things that really matter when it comes to
U.S. trade. Now, on the other hand, I think once we figure out those final numbers, we have to figure out what the actual discernible economic impact is going to be once those tariffs have been finalized.
If they're finalized at a 10 percent baseline, I think the economy can probably shrug it off.
Fifteen percent gets a little harder. Twenty percent gets a little harder and so on.
Now, once we get to those final numbers, you will see the street come out with their analysis on this because a lot of at least the good analysts on the street, J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, etc.
These top tier one analysts have refused to model out tariffs because they don't know what the numbers are going to be.
And once they know what the numbers are going to be, they will model tariffs.
They will list some sort of projected GDP impact.
They'll link some sort of S&P 500 target based on that.
They'll adjust their Fed rate cut projections based on that.
You will see a shuffling in markets when that happens.
I'm not saying it's going to be to the downside, but you will see a shuffling in markets when that happens. I'm not saying it's going to be to the downside, but you will see a shuffling in markets when that happens, a repricing of risk,
a repricing of economic expectation, probably a big shift in consumer and business sentiment as
well that will follow suit. So that's anywhere from a month from now to six months from now.
I mean, I don't know how long the China negotiations are going to take. I don't
have a crystal ball. But that's what I think remains the prevailing most important thing to
figure out. What is the actual number on the China tariffs and EU tariffs going to be? Which
industries will be most impacted by that? And will it be enough of an economic impact to cause a
recession? That's, to me, the most important factor on the table on the macro. Outside of that,
you obviously could say that maybe the rate cut narrative is starting to become prioritized by the markets again.
You saw a nice inflection this morning in the S&P 500 futures before the market opened,
when Citibank came out and Goldman Sachs came out and both raised their rate cut expectations in
terms of the number of cuts they're expecting by the end of the year. City now expecting 75 basis points of cuts before Q1 2026.
Goldman Sachs on the same page.
That's up from 50 basis points earlier.
Markets liked that this morning.
You got a bump from red to green in the futures, like I mentioned,
and we held green for most of the day.
So the question becomes,
will Powell start to walk back from his conservative attitude knowing that Trump is on the verge of picking his replacement, which will come?
Evan, do you know when Powell's term's over?
When is it?
In 2026?
May 26?
May 26.
Yeah, okay.
So May 2026, Powell knows his term's over.
Will that affect his psychology of decision-making into the back half of the year?
I think there's a shot.
Now, if it does, maybe we get an unexpected,
and it's not an unexpected market's pricing it in,
but we get that first cut in September,
ball gets rolling.
If the economy hasn't cracked between now and then,
you probably see a chase.
And I know that's crazy to think of after the last two years, like for there to be more of that kind of upside in the markets.
But I mean, look, CTAs have been upside for Q1.
A lot of funds are underperforming this year because they got either out of the markets or got shaken out of positions in the earlier sell off and didn't get back in on the recovery.
That's going to be an issue for them.
You know, if markets stay where they are here, above 600,
into the back half of the summer,
I mean, a lot of those guys underperformed 2024, too,
out of recession fear.
They took stuff off the table at the start of the year because of all the chirpers.
So, I don't know.
I don't know what it's going to look like for those guys. And they may have to chase in September.
But yeah, I think you keep an eye on the tariffs. I think you keep an eye on how rate cut
expectations fluctuate. For those in the audience that don't know how to check that, you can just
type in Fed Funds Futures on Google. It'll pop up. It's the first link. You can click it.
Updates every morning. Keep track of what the probabilities are then. You don't have to listen
to people who are telling you whether there's going to be a rate cut or not, because none of
them, none of them are as accurate as the FedWatch tool. It is the most accurate predictor of rate
cuts. It's been wrong like maybe a handful of times in history. Obviously, it's wrong very
frequently if you look at it months in advance. But the idea really is to look at it a week,
week and a half in advance to get
a really highly probabilistic outcome of what's going to happen at the meeting.
You know, this cycle, they haven't betrayed it once on a one week basis. So yeah, pay attention
to the FedWatch tool, see how interest rate attitudes are changing. And then also pay attention
to these China and US talks and see what the final number ends up being.
I think if both of those things turn out positively, I think you have a great end of the year to the market.
On the contrary, you get a bad scenario with China.
Tariffs end up at 30 or 40 percent.
You probably get a recession and markets probably go much lower.
So, you know, I think if we get a point to any one issue, it's the China-U.S. deal.
It remains that.
It's why markets are so excited every time there's an inkling of positive news on that end.
People knew the meeting was going to happen today.
Still, we got the headline this morning the meeting was happening and a bunch of shit got bit up on it.
That was already known.
It was already announced it was happening today.
But just because it started, people were like, oh, it's starting.
And now they're having another meeting tomorrow.
So we'll see where that goes.
I do think one thing, though, I think there has been an acknowledgement from both sides.
And I will say this is a different attitude than I saw in January.
I think there's been an acknowledgement from both sides that the pain points are too painful.
OK, and what I mean by that is the pain points on the import export side, right? So
for China, that's rare earth. And for us, it's chips, right? And there's, the reason I bring
this up is the EU and China are currently on discussions about EV tariffs and automobile
tariffs. And China is trying to broker a deal with the EU
to allow the sale of its vehicles in the European Union.
This has kind of been an under-discussed story over the last two weeks,
but there's been a lot of news about it,
depending on the news sources you pay attention to.
But anyway, they're trying to broker a deal with the European Union
to get their automobiles into Europe.
And as a part of that deal, they are urging the European Union to be more lenient on, quote unquote, computer parts and AI hardware. That's what the Chinese
foreign minister mentioned specifically. So I talked about this a few weeks ago, whenever
Hegseth made those comments about Chinese invasion of Taiwan might be imminent.
comments about Chinese invasion of Taiwan might be imminent. And the comment I made on Twitter was,
I wonder if chip export controls are putting the Chinese into a desperate position.
And I do believe that that's true. But what I've come to acknowledge since then,
in the short time since then, is that they're also suffocating us on the rare minerals end.
is that they're also suffocating us on the rare minerals end.
And, you know, I was reading an interview with,
God, was it Ford CEO or Stellantis CEO?
I don't know.
One of them did an interview this weekend.
I read a lot of shit,
so sometimes I can't always remember who exactly it was,
but it was one of them.
And he was talking to them about rare minerals curbs from China,
and he was like, if this continues on for a few years, we won't even
be able to make cars affordably in the United States, let alone all the other high tech products
that need rare minerals. And I think the Chinese, when they hear things like that, are acknowledging
their strength, right? That, hey, we can play hardball with the US when it comes to rare minerals,
and we can maybe get concessions when it comes to AI chips as a product of that, right?
China needs U.S. designed chips, and we need Chinese rare earth minerals. Like, not kinda,
we both need those things, okay? And so I imagine, I'm just speculating here,
that those will become the cornerstones of China-US negotiations.
Concessions on both of those sides, where the US argues that they want more fluid and streamlined access to Chinese rare earths for US automakers and US tech companies.
And on the flip side, they make a concession where they allow NVIDIA to maybe design a new chip for the Chinese markets or something to that effect.
And I think that would be a pressure reliever on both sides of the negotiation, where Xi would feel like his pain point has been relieved and Trump would also feel like the U.S. pain point has been relieved.
And that, I think, could lead to some productive negotiation.
So I hope that issue is addressed. I'm not in the room with these guys. If I was, I would be
mentioning that, but I'm not, unfortunately. But I imagine they'll talk about it. And if any deal
does come, I think it'll be a product of those two industries. Those are the two most important
industries in this sort of standoff that we're seeing. um yeah that's my thoughts on the on the big picture
oh man we had a very small range today very volume. It just seems like we're waiting on more news.
And to your point there, it seems like this China,
almost like cooler heads are prevailing in a way.
Like, okay, you have rare earth, we have chips,
like let's find a middle ground here a little bit.
Do you think they're going to go after any of the other stuff?
Like all this retail stuff people are worried about, the Nike shoes and everything else?
I mean, we haven't really heard any updated comments, but just from what their current discussions are around, it seems like that's all that they're really trying to get done.
Where does the rest of the tariffs fall?
Yeah, you mean things like apparel, right?
Yeah, like apparel or even the iPhone thing.
I know that was India, but still like the iPhone thing.
Where does the rest of this stuff fall
if they work out an agreement between the two things
that both sides really want?
Yeah, apparel's tough because
apparel's not really a skilled labor industry.
There's going to be people in the audience who are like fashionistas who are going to argue with me.
But basic apparel is not a high-skill industry.
It's also not a high technical industry from a tooling standpoint.
technical industry from a tooling standpoint. Okay. Like when you look at the production of
When you look at the production of something like the iPhone, for example,
something like the iPhone, for example, the main limiting factor for us, something like us
production is the tooling that's involved, the highly technical work that's involved in the
production of those phones. And frankly, the grueling hours at Foxconn factories for anyone
that's ever read or watch a documentary about Foxconn. You probably know what I'm talking about.
It's grueling, grueling labor, like, you know, eight, 10 hour days of just constant assembly and fine tuning. And, you know,
it just requires an extraordinarily skilled workforce to make iPhones in that quantity at
that price. Apparel is not that type of industry. So apparel does have a much easier ability to be relocated if necessary.
And as a consequence of that, I do not think China will play hardball in the apparel industry.
Because you have to think about this from the negotiator's standpoint, right?
Like from China's standpoint, you don't want to just give up business for the sake of giving up business, just to stick it to the U.S.
You want to give up business in areas where the U.S. will
feel the pain. Like if apparel prices go up by 10 percent across the board, are consumers going to
be a little pissed? Probably. Will they absorb the cost? Probably. You know, and will there be
a relatively easy five to 10 year pivot in terms of apparel manufacturing outside of China?
Probably so. So apparel I don't see as this like die on the hill industry
where China's going to push the needle, you know,
or try to put pressure on us there.
It's just not the right place to do it for them.
They'd just be giving up billions of dollars
in apparel production in China for no reason.
The U.S. will just be like, okay, fuck you.
We'll go to Vietnam and Cambodia
and all the Southeastern Asian countries that are frankly growing extremely fast. And a lot of them remind
me of China 25 years ago, you know, especially if you look at their GDP growth curves, you look at
their population growth curves. A lot of them really resemble mini China's, you know, pretty
much all of Southeast Asia right now. So the U.S. sees Southeast Asia as an outlet the same way it
sees India as an outlet. And that is a threat to China. The idea that there are viable alternatives,
albeit not immediate ones, right? It'll take five to 10 years to build the infrastructure necessary,
the logistics necessary, the ports necessary, the trucking, all of the things that you need to ship
and build and, you know, send products out internationally, all the infrastructure you need takes a while to build.
You also need time to train workforces. That takes years.
In India, especially, that's a problem. There's not a lot of technical labor skill, especially in the middle provinces.
So that needs to be improved in India.
It's also a ton of logistical issues when it comes to road infrastructure and things like that that need to be improved in India. It's also a ton of logistical issues when it comes to road infrastructure
and things like that that need to be improved.
Same thing goes for Vietnam, Cambodia.
Like these countries have work to be done.
China knows that.
They know that they can rest on their laurels
as a consequence of that a little bit.
But they are seeing the impacts, right?
AirPods factory in Vietnam,
25% of iPhone production now in India.
Like they're seeing the ball starting
to roll away from them. And so they will try to protect their interests to the best of their
ability. But yeah, again, I don't think apparel is an area where they're going to want to put the
pain down because they just can't win there. If they want to give up the Chinese apparel industry,
okay, just do it. But US consumers aren't going to start stop buying cool T-shirts.
Right. U.S. consumers just aren't going to they're going to continue to be fashion consumers.
And so they'll buy it from someone else.
Someone else will gladly make it for probably pretty cheap.
You know, apparel coming out of Cambodia and Vietnam is not dramatically more expensive than China.
In fact, there's certain cases in Cambodia where apparel like cotton
shirts is actually cheaper on a unit basis. So, you know, do they have the scale that China has?
Of course not. Like, who are we kidding? Of course, Cambodia and Vietnam don't have the
scale that China has. But they are driving pretty good labor cost advantages in the last eight or
nine years or so. And now those labor cost advantages are amplifying because it's not just about how much you pay the employees in the country.
It's about the total cost of production and export of the product.
And, you know, things like infrastructure matter to that total cost.
If you have shitty roads and, you know, sparse trucking volume and sparse port volume and sparse port volume, and sparse port infrastructure,
these things increase costs across the board. And so what is in isolation might look like a
labor cost advantage ends up being muted or completely deferred by all of the other
infrastructural and logistical costs that are involved. So, yeah, a long way of saying I don't think apparel is an issue.
I know we got a hard stop here in four minutes, right?
We do.
Well, first of all, before we keep continuing, make sure you're following the speakers up here.
If you enjoy these spaces, make sure you're following the host for that.
Every single Monday through Thursday,
three to 5.
PM Eastern,
at least some days we got stuff.
A great space is going on after this like stock picks for the week.
Other days we can go on for a good long time.
And even when it's crazy,
we'll stay live for hours sometimes,
but it's been a fantastic day.
We talked a lot about Apple and all this stuff over the last little bit and
some great talks. so I definitely do
appreciate everyone. We have four minutes left
here so there is a little time for you guys to talk through some stuff
I just want to
make sure we get in to follow the host
follow the speakers we appreciate everyone for joining
in uh the one thing let's come in and maybe well the one thing that we didn't mention today that
happened friday was that wild no rebalancing with uh with the smp the first time since 2022 i believe
it was march uh that they left uh left everything same, didn't do any rebalancing.
That was an interesting saga.
You would think they would at least put out their own statement,
like no rebalancing instead of just sitting there
letting the website be crashed for an hour and a half.
Yeah, that was an interesting saga, Friday night.
Robinhood obviously ended up moving lower today
off of that one i didn't really look at some of the other names that were tied to it robin
ended up recovering that last part of the day there was a really interesting headline which
we only mentioned a little bit earlier on trump maybe like in the you know it's a big bill it's
beautiful it's a part of the big beautiful bill we're gonna give a thousand dollars every kid
and i think that would be good for robin hood yeah as in their user base is probably in that kind of i'm having a kid in the next five
year more than like a fidelity or some of these older ones uh older user-based ones i would want
to see more concrete data on that but um i thought that was an interesting play and even vlad tenov
was there too and he put out a little tweet as well if you want to see like what that could
possibly look like so um you know an interesting possible opportunity for robin hood there and definitely something that
i think that their user base would you know as a percentage of users you know have a better effect
than some of the other ones yeah the the story i saw on that it was uh retroactive to January 1st of this year. So pretty much any baby born from start of 2025 going forward to the end of 29 was the date range that I saw.
Imagine being born today, how much you missed.
No, as long as you're born since January, you qualify if they push through with this.
After London, downtown 10% though.
That's where I was going.
So Hood did recover.
Hood finished the day only down 2%.
It was down much more than that.
It was down just if you go off of Friday's close,
it was down like 8% plus at the lows today.
Recovered.
Wonderful day.
But yeah, App Lobbin just got smoked it didn't it made the
same move hood made and just closed at the lows just didn't never came back
all right well we are at the top of the hour follow speakers follow the great co-hosts up here
and uh stock picks for the week.
We have some very interesting picks.
Sam Solid had NVTS, actually, believe it or not, from last Monday.
So I think that was our top returner.
Yeah, Paper Gains was right on his heels with some silver and some ROBN, actually.
Robin Hood, shout out, Rexhares.
All right, I'll see you guys over on the wolf financial account right now uh for shock fix of the week Thank you.
