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STOCK MARKET TALK … Talking about Humanoid Robots with ThemesETFs
Recorded: Feb. 24, 2026 Duration: 2:30:13Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. What is up, everybody?
I hope you are doing well.
It is an interesting day we got in the stock market this time.
It is a green. Interesting. We have stocks moving higher here.
I'm looking at a post right now. Waymo posted,
Magic of Autonomous Rise is now available in more cities.
They asked 10 new cities. Orlando dallas san antonio sat
houston miami san francisco la phoenix atlanta
atx uh austin there you go some good uh some good geographical geography knowledge there to start
out in the spaces appreciate everyone everyone for joining us. This
should be a good one. Stocks are green. I'm excited for the conversation. For anyone who was on here
yesterday, we had Scott Rudler. We had Dan Niles. We had Henry. The crane share team was a fantastic
conversation. That was a great one. Go check the timeline. Today, today, today, today, we have some live earnings.
I did see a headline that the XAI Elon Musk lawsuit against OpenAI has been dismissed.
U.S. judge dismisses XAI trade secret lawsuit against OpenAI.
Court ruling favors OpenAI, blah, blah, blah, significant.
Okay. I don't see too much deeper than that, but two private companies. Lawsuit getting dismissed.
Let's post this.
Yeah. Green Day. Apple up 2.5%.
One of the names that's outperforming, 270.
Tesla. Amazon also outperforming here.
NVIDIA is still green. Microsoft is still green
but underperforming. Those other Mag7
names, Google is red. BMNR.
Now it is at 1934
but it is green. BMNR
has been a struggle. There was a story today that Mark Zuckerberg
and Meta are starting to adopt
stable coins.
They were going to go through
third-party vendors. I heard a rumor they were going to
maybe be using Stripe.
I didn't see anything about Ethereum necessarily listed.
But one would
assume we shall see there
stories meta getting involved
into stable coins later this year.
That was one of the news stories that we saw going around.
As I switch over towards
my watch list,
names that are performing the best so far today.
Figma is number one on here.
Transparently, I don't know too much into why.
I'll look at that in front of me.
AMD is one that is performing very well, up 9%.
They had a story this morning also around Meta.
It was actually a big deal between Meta and AMD.
A six gigawatt agreement to power Meta's next generation of AI infrastructure
across multiple generations of AMD and synced GPUs.
As a part of the deal,
AMD issued Meta performance-based warrants
to buy up to 160 million shares of AMD.
I believe that came to like 10%.
It was a very large percentage of the
company actually and that number 10 uh was based off of things i've seen and we'll get clarification
on it as i'm still kind of just following through here but amd possibly issuing meta based on some
performance based on when these milestones of those gigawatts being used and all those chips and stuff like that but this is uh hey meta agreeing to use amd chips as they use amd chips they're gonna take a piece of meta you know
it's a it's an interesting deal structure seems like meta has the leverage but um did send amd
stock up nine percent which if i actually look at at AMD's market cap for anybody wondering it's got its
that's pretty large here we go 350 billion dollars 36 largest company in the world
don't necessarily have that increase but 10% 9% I mean 20 30 billion dollar increase that is a large
a large increase there so performance based we
shall see core weave intel clean spark taiwan semiconductor other names have been performing
pretty well when i look towards the bottom of this list 2x unh etf shout out to our friends
over at leverage shares unhg worst performing etf on here so 2x etf users obviously you guys want momentum maybe not the
best market for it but unhd there is a 2x unh etf prados c limited tvs obviously unh novo nordis
raytheon broadcom etc on the lower end of that list when i look towards the big news stories
from the day and then i'll start to bring some of the friends into it, some of Mike and some other people.
First of all, still upcoming, Mercado Libre, Realty Income, Tempest AI, Zeta,
all reporting earnings, Transmedix, Kava, Axon, HP, First Solar, Lucid.
We have a good amount of names that people in Fintwit does care about
reporting today after the close.
We'll talk more about those as we do continue on in the conversation.
But do know we have a lot of earnings coming up.
And obviously, we do have more earnings tomorrow.
NVIDIA, the big one for the week.
Possibly the big dog for the earnings cycle.
One of the best performing ones.
Goes tomorrow after the close.
We will be live on Spaces for that.
A couple more of the news stories from today.
We did have Anthropic.
They are just trying to disrupt every sector, I guess.
A lot of headlines coming out.
People coming in scared for a while.
This was Amazon.
Amazon enters your sector, and then all of a sudden, stocks tanking.
Everyone's worried.
Right now, it's Anthropic.
Right now, it's AI software.
Everything getting hit by that.
But one of the headlines from this morning was Anthropic unveiled new AI tools for its clawed co-work agent software
that are designed to automate work in fields, including human resources, investment banking,
and design. So human resources, HR, investment banking is the latest headline today.
I don't know. We'll see. Apple did have its annual Investor Day event today.
If you were seeing a lot of Apple headlines, that's part of the reason for it. There was
stuff talking about that they plan to continue their annual increase of their dividend. There
was stuff around their European sales. Apple reportedly sold 36.9 million iPhones in Europe
in 2025. That would be up 6% year over year. There was another story around
Apple. The other one was, as I get in front of me, it would have been Steve Jobs' birthday today.
That's not the story I was looking for. Apple announced a significant expansion of its facility
operations in Houston. Apple expanding its operations in houston to build nothing other than the popular
open claw facilitator device that all these people are buying mac menus so they're going to build some
mac minis in houston they were touting that a little bit part of that 600 billion dollar
investment that apple said it was going to be doing so that came out today we had some jp
morgan jamie diamond it wasn't really jp morgan
jamie diamond some dumerism uh direct quote out of jamie diamond unfortunately we did see this in
2005 6 7 almost the same thing the rising tide was lifting all boats everyone was making a lot
of money jamie diamond trying to draw some parallels to the financial crisis now yeah he
has a lot of do-worse comments
over the time over the years so we'll see but uh jamie diamond did have those quotes out uh apple
came out and said they are on pace to buy more than 100 million advanced semiconductors made by
taiwan semiconductor from its arizona facility so for everyone anyone was wondering how many
chips are coming out of that facility,
Apple on pace to buy more than $100 million this year from that facility.
I forgot to add this year into that headline. It was early this morning, seven hours ago, 7.30 a.m. Eastern.
There you go.
A couple other stuff going on, but I feel like I've been talking for a while,
and maybe we'll come back and reuse some of these stories.
Waymo launching in new cities.
We have IGV,
the largest holdings,
getting absolutely destroyed.
Google announcing a couple new data centers.
Coinbase launching 24.5 stock trading.
Spirit Airlines.
If anyone does not...
And StockSniper.
StockSniper is up here.
I want to make sure you post this.
Spirit Airlines getting out of bankruptcy.
There was a headline about that this morning. If anyone has some weird feelings about flying on bankrupt airlines, Spirit Airlines getting the kind of thing to come out of bankruptcy. Not a stock anymore, but yeah.
$159 billion.
That's interesting.
That's cool.
I want to pin something else up in the nest above,
but I didn't get it quick enough and it's not up there.
I, next month, have a pretty
busy month of in-person
stuff that I will be doing. I will be going
to the Robinhood event on
March 4th.
I will be going to a conference that maybe will get
some content. Maybe I will
ask Tom Lee some
questions. You guys can
pick what I ask Tom.
And then one thing that I'm also excited about
later in the month, next month,
I'm going to NVIDIA's GTC conference.
Myself and StockTalk, actually.
So I don't know if anyone is a fan,
anyone who's in that area is going to that.
I did pin the nest up and above.
They have a lot of different things they're doing there.
I don't know.
But I'm curious if anyone is going to the NVIDIA GTC event
next month in California.
Let me know.
I'm curious.
I'll be there.
But let us get into the conversation.
Like I said, live earnings will be coming up.
Mercado Libre, Realty Income,
Zeta, Tava, Axon, Transmedic,
First Solar, Lucid, etc. There are some
interesting earnings coming up after the close today for sure.
I appreciate everyone for joining in. What's up, Doption Mike? How you doing?
Hey, Evan, how are you?
I'm doing well. I'm doing good. I'm doing good. Long days. Long days. Long days, but it's okay. Hey Evan, how are you? list or low list we got a lot of names on the 52 week high list i mean we're moving higher
but is it the sectors that weren't working 107 names is about what it was yesterday
what about 52 close
yeah but um but yeah no interesting day i'm good i don't read much into this here today i mean i think we're nothing's changed in fact you know you look at the spy and since that you know almost two weeks ago that big there is a down candle we're trading the lower
half of it we got one two three four five six today is seven days in a row on my chart i've
highlighted 690 as the level to take out to the upside i have 675 area as the level to break below
to the downside and that's i think 75 80 actually and outside of
that we're just chopping around this range yesterday it looked like the market was going
to fall apart today they brought everything right back up and we got you know we have some noise
coming at us this week we're going to have the state of the union tonight yep and that what's
that i just saying yes yep and that's gonna you know that's a politically charged event
and you know given everything going on it sounds like he's going to be very uh uh aggressive it's
going to be it's going to be an aggressive state of the union we'll see how the market reacts to
see what he says then we have nvidia earnings tomorrow night which again we've talked about
yesterday but you know you have that news today they bought it all back. AMD getting that huge order from Mediv and the circle trade.
For the record, by the way, just going back, I apologize.
I should have interrupted a second ago.
One of the comments that Mike made last week, you know, a lot of people thinking this Iran thing is going to happen.
But Mike put up some good points on why this past weekend maybe wasn't it.
One of the reasons was the State of the Union thing.
So, you know, I like to point out what people are wrong. and maybe wasn't it one of the reasons was the state of the union thing so yeah right i i like
to point out when people are wrong we also want to point out what people are right so that you know
it makes those those other ones fair so that's that's a good point mr uh mr mike was right
appreciate it i mean again state of the union he's trying to focus everybody on the midterms and on
what he's done well not on a military action or a war that nobody in this country wants. So it makes sense to not have that.
But then we get NVIDIA tomorrow night, and they bought it back here.
But again, everybody thinks they're going to beat and guide up.
I do.
But will it be enough to get it moving?
And then Thursday you have the Iran talks, supposedly, back on.
While we continue to build up more and more force in that area,
you see more and more headlines so the market's just sitting here um kind of just chopping around here at this point
and it doesn't seem to know where it wants to go uh software continues to get hit as you pointed
out you know anything you know anything that gets touched by ai gets killed instantly um foxes of
trump is talking right now on fox news. Iran not agreeing to know nuclear weapons,
wants a new form of tax cuts. So just what's going on here. But we had a nice bounce back.
The banks got killed yesterday. They came back nicely today. AMD, that news is huge for them.
That's a $100 billion order from Meta. That is massive. I think it shows a little bit of fatigue
with companies with NVIDIA and paying whatever prices they want for their chips.
And they're saying, you know what, we can get almost as good from other people and we're going to start doing that.
So you see that a little bit going on there.
You know, outside of that today, Apple was my best trade of the day.
The last few days I've traded that very aggressively and done well with it.
Had a little trade on AMD pre-market, had a nice little trade on Tesla just today, which was showing some relative strength
today as well. And pretty much just leaving a lot of stuff alone here and just waiting for this
market to pick a direction at this point, Evan. You know, it really is, you know, if we're up
today, does that mean tomorrow we'll be back down? I don't know. The market wants to chop around.
Maybe it depends on what we hear
the market bounced back today after yesterday looking like that but then again on you know on friday it looked great so you know pick your day pick your poison here in the market it's time
to be more careful i'm not adding any long-term risk i haven't taken any long-term risk off
because i still feel this market's going to put a new high this year and all my long-term risk is
in stock uh with some cover calls against some names and nothing special there.
I'm not really swing trading much right now.
I think I have one micro crude contract left.
I sold the rest of them yesterday, holding that for any kind of action I ran in case the crude goes nuts to get a piece of it.
And I'm just more interested here in just looking for little things to do every day. you know that's it if i can find something to do i'm happy and video be
in play tomorrow i think amd has a big gap to fill up to that 240 plus area i think that should push
off of it at some point i think that moved quite a bit today and they're just kind of digesting the
news there but overall you know the bounce but but names like Microsoft, Oracle continue to look weak.
Hood nice little bounce after it broke all the way down to 69.50 this morning.
Now all the way up to 73.
But, you know, it's just it's just seems like DRC's levels the market wants to hold.
And, you know, today it was the SPY coming down right into that 680 area.
That was where the 100 day is. And it's been trying to bounce there lately.
And the Q600 has been a very strong support, came right to it and bounced.
So, you know, what I advise people to do is make sure you're looking at what's going on out there, looking at the charts.
Have levels drawn out there for yourself because, you know, I would I was thinking we're going to short this morning after that.
And as we open that five, I looked at where we were and I've said don't
short here and I went long instead so you know make sure you're looking around
and keeping an eye on things got your levels mapped out here and you know less
is more right now you don't have to you don't have to be big right now just let
the market come to you the victory means up elevated but it's back under 20 here
at the moment.
I appreciate you for starting us out there, Mike.
We'll talk
more into it. I want to go into
StockSniper. I see
Monitib down below. Anyone else wants to join
in and then we'll kick into some more of the topics.
What's up, StockSniper?
I know you're
on a traveling trip there. I'm curious what's catching your mind today in this market
And you got some earnings after the clothes. I wonder what you're watching there. Yeah
So I'll read off some of the numbers a little closer towards the bell
But I just wanted to touch on one thing that you were talking about earlier
About the Spirit Airlines
emerging from bankruptcy
Fun fact but Spirit Airlines still has never crashed and
they are statistically the safest, uh, us airline like it or not. Um, just wanted to put that out
there. Um, it seems like, you know, we've seen massive developments in the middle East. I think
options Mike brought up a good point there. Uh, unfortunately I wasn't here to hear that one live,
but, um, in retrospect, uh, that was a phenomenal point that he made but um
we are pretty much seeing some more massive developments in the middle east we saw 12 f-22s
uh land into israel and uh this is pretty much the first time that they've been there and not
be on a training purpose uh we also see gerald r ford and uh abraham lincoln both built by hunting
tingles uh pull up or hang out into the Mediterranean in position to attack Iran.
They are also accompanied by eight hypersonic missile destroyers.
And with the two of those, they have 160 advanced fighter jets on those two carriers alone, not including any of the bases surrounding the area.
I think, in my personal opinion, it is very likely that we do see some tensions increase, especially with this buildup.
This is the biggest buildup that we've seen since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Funny that you say that. I actually was flying above Iran the other day.
I was pretty scared, especially because the last headline I saw before I got on the plane was that the Raptors are being deployed.
So I made it back to the U.S., thank God. But yeah, there's E-2 Hawkeyes also there,
which are pretty much our main information dominance plane, and those are also on back
of the carriers. Typically, if we were to strike Iran, I believe that we would likely see missiles
come from the destroyers first, and then we would also see some of these fighters deployed along
with these Hawkeyes that will pretty much gather information.
It seems to me like there's not going to be a deal coming.
It seems like Iran doesn't have much interest in taking a deal.
We'll see if there's any kind of developments there.
It is also in Trump's best interest because of the timing, like Absinthe Mike was saying, to not exactly increase tensions or make a tremendous development right now.
to not exactly increase tensions or make a tremendous development right now.
But it does seem like military-wise, we are in a massive point towards striking there.
On another note, completely segwaying from defense, we got some pretty big news from Google.
Google is going to be making a new data center in Texas.
A huge part about this location specifically with Google building it in Texas is it is positioned
close to much of the other known data center names like Iron, like Terra Wolf, and like
Cypher Mining. They're all relatively close. I could see some possible partnerships coming there
based on geographical location. It would save them tremendous amounts of money in cutting travel
costs, something to keep an eye out for there.
We saw Cypher earnings come out this morning.
They missed both revenue and EPS, but it was actually a good report.
And I'm going to explain pretty much why.
But the AWS deal seems to be remaining on track, which a lot of people were skeptical of.
But that seems like it's no hiccups in the road there.
Fluidstack and Google is also remaining
on track, and they made a massive announcement saying that they're no longer planning to mine.
They're basically, or mine Bitcoins. They're basically going to focus exclusively on AI
infrastructure and look to partner with some of the hyperscalers. So keep an eye out on some of
the Cypher headlines coming up.
We could greatly see a chance that there could be some additional partnerships coming and developments there. We also saw Meta announce a 6 gigawatt partnership with AMD.
6 gigawatts is huge, and this is pretty much matching AMD's OpenAI partnership that we saw quite a while ago.
matching AMD's open AI partnership that we saw quite a while ago. So this is putting AMD in a
leading position or pretty close to it in terms of AI infrastructure. And having these two
massive partnerships and considering also that this is going to be a multi-billion dollar deal
across multiple years means that this is, again again just going to position AMD extremely well.
It's going to be worth over $100 billion to be specific. There's going to be 30 data centers
that Meta's building I believe. Don't quote me directly on that. I'm sorry. But yeah we're
pretty much seeing those are the massive headlines or at least what's catching my eyes today.
Cypher earnings gave us a huge insight into that but it seems like a lot of these guys uh
like iron like tara wolf and some of the others might kind of look to focus similarly towards
what cypher mining announced today and kind of segue away from the bitcoin mining side of things
and focus more on the ai infrastructure we saw sam altman uh talking over this weekend uh saying
that that we need a lot more infrastructure and that's coming from the top of
the chain himself. Um, saying that, you know, the power demand is not going to meet, uh, the power
supply is not going to meet the power demand coming forward. And, uh, I think that some of
the AI infrastructure names will be some of the more interesting names to watch throughout 2026.
Um, sorry if I'm talking a little slow, I'm just a 16-hour flight yesterday did not hit well.
But that's pretty much everything that I'm seeing there.
And it seems like Spirit Airlines is going to be to stay.
We also saw yesterday Kratos and General Electric announced they're going to be building some engines together.
That's huge for Kratos, especially going to put them in a better position for the CCA program,
Collaborative Combat Aircraft. Kratos, especially going to put them in a better position for the CCA program, collaborative combat aircraft.
That's basically the autonomous drones that are expected to be flying with fifth generation
and sixth generation fighter jets.
So Kratos is continuing to develop and execute more so into that next generation airspace
side of things as well.
But that's pretty much all that I think I got for you right now.
I could be missing a couple of things,
but I will definitely read off some of the numbers closer towards earnings.
I'm seeing a Bloomberg story across my head right now.
Corey seeks $8.5 billion loan from banks backed by MetaDeal.
Interesting. More funding. There we go. Fun times.
Appreciate you coming back. good run through there shout out to the wolf defense account you should make sure you are following it
what's up monotiv how are you doing sir
you're good you're good sometimes Sometimes we just go in and talk.
How are you doing?
Alright, I'm sorry I missed that one yesterday.
That was not a good one to miss, so I apologize.
I know, listen, the only reason I messaged him multiple times is you were the person who
put a spark in my idea to message him back, so I want to make sure you really stay.
I'm a big fan of him. I've been following him forever.
So, yeah.
Anyway, let's see this AMD deal.
Everybody's talking about the $100 billion.
Nobody's talking about, you know, giving away the shop to, you know, to get that deal.
You know, they're giving up up to 10% in warrants to get the deal.
The first tranche vests with one gigawatt.
I mean, at today's prices, that's $35 billion worth.
So it's not a $100 billion deal at the top end. You know, why do people keep mentioning it's $100 billion?
I don't get. AMD is literally having to sell itself to sign big contracts. And that to me is negative. Look, this might be a
huge short-term benefit for AMD, but we are talking about ungodly amount of dilution coming if those numbers are met.
Yeah, I suppose, you know, they'd have sold a lot and they'd be a lot more relevant in the market rather than where they are now,
which is, you know, a far distant also ran that doesn't really matter.
But yeah, I am not a huge fan of deals like this.
So that's my honest check.
So let's see.
NVIDIA tomorrow, I think we're going to have a lot of noise around.
Before you actually get onto the earnings,
how do you think of NVIDIA from their perspective of that deal today?
Does it show NVIDIA strengths?
I know Mike was talking, hey, maybe the market is looking for some of these other chips and maybe competition coming.
Everybody has to.
Everybody has to look for options.
Otherwise, you're paying 75% margin to NVIDIA to acquire compute.
to acquire compute.
So whoever does not have their own active and in production ASIC,
which is only really Google fully and to some extent Amazon,
and eventually Microsoft will get it to full production sometime maybe end of this year or next year.
But outside of Google at this point in time,
there is a massive dependence on NVIDIA right now for everybody else
and to a lesser extent on AMD because it's not a full stack solution.
Still, that's changing slowly, but Meta has the in-house capabilities to round out that and build their own stack.
So it's possible for meta to do this and it's probably not just this. We don't know the details
of the deal, right? My guess is for meta to commit this size of a deal they probably got a much much much steeper discount than
you know just buying without the deal right without without any of the uh you know constraints so
so uh you know something's got to give but but going back to md uh so nvidia right everybody's
going to anchor on the on the on the on the gross margin number right that 75 percent
see if that moves up or down and then there's going to be chatter about China we just heard
today somebody you know an hour ago I heard on a squawk saying that H200 the state department said
H200 sales to China have not yet started.
So that came up very recently that they were going to permit them to sell H200.
But we'll have to see if there was any revenue from China.
AMD did announce they got some and they reversed their previous write-offs. So my guess is NVIDIA will also have some reversal of previous write-offs.
So that'll be a one-time addition to profit here.
But outside of that, you know, it's...
I think everybody has an expectation that they're going to meet and, you know, and guide up.
Question is, you know, is it large enough to... is it large enough to help the stock?
It's where it is.
What else?
I think the expected move is almost 9% or 10%,
something like that.
$18 or something is what I was told.
Somebody looked at it.
So that's a big move.
I have my position.
I actually had to fully hedge it
because it's become a very large position for me.
So I'm fully hedged for, you know,
up to a 15% downside.
I'm hoping that it doesn't go anything worse than that.
We'll see.
What else?
What else did you want to talk about?
No, I think that was good.
I think that was a good start there.
There was a little story right now around CoreWeave
and then trying to raise money for this metadata center.
So it's funny how it kind of fits into the theme
and fits into everything that's happening yeah so the off balance stuff exactly right so so so i
think it's going to take a little more time for you know some of the shakeout and and and uh and
and to see who really has the money and who's announcing these deals expecting to be able to raise money from the,
you know, from the debt markets to be able to finance it, right?
Meta is okay for now.
They still have significant cash flow,
but we already know that they're taking a lot of their debt outside the books.
So that's never a good sign.
But this $100 billion spend, I don't know,
was there a period of time it was announced?
Over five years, something like that?
Yeah, five-year term.
Yeah.
So this is going to take some time.
I still don't understand, you know, the move in AMD from this.
We just seem to just anchor on to big numbers without looking at the details.
Well, that's the point of the headlines, though.
Big numbers, flash them early, and then you figure it out later.
What were you saying, Mike?
I mean, I agree, but it's another one of these circle trends.
We've seen a ton of these, like, these on AI where, you know, big deals.
They seem to be getting larger and bolder with throwing out these numbers and nobody's asking questions.
It shocks me that analysts just do not ask any, you know, really deep and thoughtful questions.
Because they don't do their jobs anymore. They're all
just these moves. If you watch them constantly
raising their price on SanDisk and Micron,
where were you guys six months ago?
They don't do their work anymore.
I don't find much.
The only thing I use analysts for
on a daily basis is just, is there an upgrade
or downgrade or price action on a name I might want to
trade that might move it.
Yeah.
Occasionally,
occasionally their,
their,
their,
the,
the,
the,
the,
you know,
their report itself has nuggets of information that,
you know,
that sort of is not even,
you know,
captured in their, in their captured in their call-out.
But occasionally, there's nuggets of information.
So I still read it.
I don't put any value to it anymore.
But I read it because they have access to insiders to talk to them,
which most of us can't.
So it's useful, but their callouts are,
like you said, increasingly completely worthless.
Yeah, I mean, they really just talked yesterday,
upgrade on Google, it gapped up and right away,
hit the 50 day and just sold off all day long.
all day long. It's like, yeah,
It's like, yeah, doesn't matter.
doesn't matter.
We do have some earnings coming up after the close
today.
Mercado, I know you keep saying it again.
Were there any interesting before, I just keep reading
them off, that you were looking at?
Montev, then Mike, I know it's not
necessarily your trading style,
but you and then Sniper.
Montef, any earnings you'll be keeping an eye on?
You would try on my next guy.
Is there any interest there?
No, I'm not.
Well, I don't have stake in today's earnings.
The last time I looked, I mean, I could miss.
There's so many of these small name tickers and I have a few in my
portfolio, but, uh, but I have nothing today.
So no interest.
Mainly I've never traded.
PayPal by the way, PayPal's getting a big spike, right?
PayPal's getting a big spike right now.
I'm seeing, I don't know necessarily why, but it is getting a nice little move up.
Stripe considering an acquisition of PayPal is a rumor going around right now stripe is
considering an acquisition of all or parts of stripe of PayPal so either live long enough to
the startups are occurring the larger companies incumbents they just they just closed around, I saw this morning. $159 billion.
Correct, yeah.
And they want to spend $50 of that?
What?
From where?
Look, PayPal's not going to go at a discount to their current market cap. So assume it's a 20% or so premium.
That's $50 billion.
Where the hell is Stripe going to raise that kind of money?
PayPal also is moving higher, so who knows what that premium is.
Thanks, Evan.
Just made a whole bunch of money.
There you go.
What did you do?
Grab 1,000 shares very quickly.
There you go. There you go what'd you do grab a thousand shares very quickly there you go
um yes paypal stripe i am looking forward to seeing what kava says tonight
uh is that turnaround story coming on are they still struggling with those lower with the under a hundred thousand dollar customer i'm very interested to hear what they have to say
I'm very interested to hear what they have to say.
As you were saying that, there's a good-sized flow on Kava.
$233,000 worth.
75 strikes for 320.
Interesting.
Just as you said that.
Interesting.
I have a quick little, just like a, I don't own it.
I don't want anything but lose it. I'm just interested to see if they're gonna survive
They have too big of a backing it's not gonna go
They might just become a Saudi Arabian company
There's that one but that's there
But I was gonna say they're motivated I'm coming out to
NVIDIA's GTC event in San Jose.
Do you go to that thing?
No, I don't.
But when are
you coming?
I have a trip
to India, so I'm
going away soon.
But when are
you coming?
16th to the
19th is GTC.
No, I won't be
there.
I'm leaving on
the 6th.
I won't be back
at the end of
the month.
Next time.
Next time you
come.
Oh, it sounds like I might even. Next time you come. Oh,
it sounds like I might even get to miss you there.
It would have been nice to meet, but... It's literally down the road. It's just
I'm right off of
Central Expressway, which becomes Alma
here, so it's literally...
That's your IP address.
Yeah.
Anthropic has no plans
to ease restrictions on military usage according to a source
out of reuters i believe this headline but i interrupted you there
i apologize i just saw that headline thought it was a little interesting
no that that was from from uh from the defense secretary saying that, you know,
he needs an answer from them by today or something like that on...
Apparently they're going to say no.
On their guardrails. Yeah, I saw that too.
So, yeah.
PayPal hanging out around $47 now.
We got Stock Talk joining in here.
It might be Prime Leo walking time. What. We got Stock Talk joining in here. It might be Prime, Leo, Walking Time.
What's up, Stock Talk?
What up, what up?
A little story just came out. Apparently,
Stripe is looking to acquire part
of all of PayPal.
I know there's rumors going around, but
now more companies are being listed.
That's probably
a good move from Stripe.
I like that.
The problem is the numbers, as we were talking about there.
Stripe, $159 billion.
PayPal, wherever it is market cap.
I'm going to go a little above it.
Maybe it's like a...
Monitim was saying $50 billion, somewhere around there.
Wait, Stripe's market cap?
Stripe is not public, but its valuation is around $159 billion.
PayPal's market cap is up 8% right now off of this last move here in the last couple of minutes.
It's $44 billion.
So my guess is for them to buy this, you're going to have to pay upwards of $64 billion for this.
$62 to $64 would be my, if PayPal was really going to sell.
Yeah, that's got to be a PED funded partly at least with debt.
I don't think they can raise that kind of money.
I don't either. I agree with you.
Part of the headline is also part of PayPal, and maybe not all of it.
So maybe instead of this PayPal is just too big of a beast and maybe not all of it, so maybe we're, instead of this,
PayPal is just too big of a beast to get acquired
by one person, and it's just
we're about to see a rating of parts.
Which
probably is more bullish for shareholders.
I don't know if you guys disagree with that statement,
but I'd imagine a PayPal
going for the sum of the parts, probably
summed with more money.
I don't know.
We'll see if either of us can pick up.
I think for parts,
there's probably more than one person interested,
so it's going to be at a premium, right?
So yeah, it's probably better for PayPal in that sense.
But if they get $64 billion valuation
from their current price,
that's like a, what, 25% premium?
They should take it, man.
If somebody's willing to pay that kind of money,
take it.
See if the board feels the same.
But that was a story out in the last
five, ten minutes or so.
PayPal stock a little bit higher.
Now, let me actually go back to where it was.
It's about 7.5% on the day
hanging out around $47.
If I was going to get to one year,
it's still pretty ugly, some of the other ones.
But some green candles.
PayPal has not been seeing that too much on that one day does anybody see oil spiking i see a whole lot of flow on us so
yeah oil spiked off of uh some comments uh out there just a little while ago was a delayed
reaction to trump saying iran is not agreeing to what no nuclear weapons. Okay. Thank you. Well
What is up stock talk how you doing though is it is it walk leo time or is it good talk? No, I already work. Nice
I know yesterday was we had some some special guests on so we didn't get some of the normal time in here
How we doing so there's one play that i don't know if it's still in there i didn't
check today but we haven't necessarily talked about on here so i'd love to hear yeah thr this
morning got um although it's not up much because um the acquiring company ceco that bought them
or is merging with them uh got the shareholders did not like
the acquisition. So that's the stock that acquired them is down 22%. So that's dragging down THR,
but THR was up about 15% this morning. We'll see how that goes over the next couple of weeks. If
Seco gets some recovery, I think THR will come back up but um that did happen today so that was cool to
see obviously again another one where not the price i would have liked to see it being taken
out at same thing with gldd which was the first name of the year that we got acquired for us
got taken out at 17 a share um i was hoping you know to see that stock in the 25s so it's you know a win's a win i mean we got
into this thing in the 30s it's in the 50s now but you know i would have liked to see obviously a
more of a cash-based offer than a stock-based offer um but you know not it's not up to me so
the boards both unanimously approved it and pushed that through so that's one
name that at some point we'll be leaving the portfolio in the next few months and then you
know are replaced with something else but other than that what does it look like though because
i know that's it's a little bit of a different deal sometimes a company gets acquired like it
doesn't exist sticker anymore it sounds like it's more of a merger so is it like is there a chance
we reevaluate the bigger thing and we're interested does it make it too big that it's like less
interesting there what's the i i i don't want to own the combined company so so that's not gonna be
a um uh a thing for me but i will at some point sell it prior to the merger. Um, you know, we'll see
when that ends up being, but I will at some point sell it prior to that. Um,
yeah, I just don't, I'm not as interested in Seco environmental group as a company and not as
compelled by their valuation as I was with THR. I mean, THR when we bought it in the thirties was
just a stupid valuation.
Um, you know, and, and even now it's still pretty reasonable valuation, but, uh, they're acquiring companies. Seco is, is trading a little richly for my taste, uh, growing really fast though.
So, you know, depending on who you ask, maybe the valuation is reasonable depending on who you ask,
cause they are growing revenue pretty quickly. Um, you know, Their TTM revenue growth is 39%.
Their TTM EPS growth is 25%.
So it is a little bit more of a growth stock than Thurman is,
but it's not like a combined entity that I'd be super excited about owning.
excited about owning um there's just too many other non um temperature control components to
seco's business that i don't want to own so yeah i like thr as a name but i don't plan on owning
the combined entity i'm just i would rather sell in this sort of merger scenario. I would rather sell on a day of strength or Seiko, not a day of weakness.
Right.
Like, cause like I said, THR is going to correspond with, with that.
So yeah, that's, that's pretty much what happened.
Vyavi had a nice day today on key sites, earnings and sympathy to that.
It's key sites up 21% today on earnings.
VIAVI had a nice 6% or 7% pop on that.
Behind that, they obviously do network testing.
They acquired Spear and from Key Sight a while ago.
And so that has led to them having this sort of sympathy connection.
When Key Sight's doing well, you see Vyavi doing well,
but Vyavi breaking above the highs of the local range today.
I bought $14 calls back when we opened the position last October.
Those as of today are up well over 1,000% now, 1,050%.
Just a nice buy and hold there.
I didn't need to roll any of those
contracts just sat on them. I have a lot of them. Um, and so that's really, really good to see.
That's, uh, pushing the portfolio higher today. Those come up, uh, for expiry in March 20th.
I will be exercising at least half of them. Um, maybe more, I'll get the stock at effectively 1535 per share. That stock today is trading over
29. So basically I'm getting it at half the cost of market price. Um, so I will be taking some
shares from those contracts and I'll probably be selling maybe a third of them. I don't know,
but we'll see when March 20th comes up, but that's like how I like to operate. You know,
a lot of people trade options
differently um you know some people try to gamble others roll out constantly what i do is like on
high conviction names i buy slightly out of the money contracts so at the time that we bought vrv
the stock was 13.58 that's my average on the shares and so i I bought $14 calls, um, expiring in March of this year. And that was
in October of last year. Right. And so then I just sat on them and now they're up a thousand percent.
And so like, that's where I've gotten most of my big portfolio boosts in the last four or five
years. I mean, like even with Kratos, like the kratos contracts i'm sitting on despite the volatility in kratos up down and sideways those are up like 14 1500 percent kratos 40
dollar calls that i own those don't expire till january of 2027 so what what doing this does the
way that i i trade options and and the reason i don't roll out constantly what doing this does is
you take the risk initially,
right? So you take the out of the money risk initially, when I'm buying the contracts right
there, whatever, 60, 70 cents a dollar out of the money, that's the moment of risk for me.
And then when the stock goes above that strike price, right? Then to me, I've been paid for my
risk. And so instead of rolling out constantly and taking additional flashes of risk, I'm just keeping those contracts.
Right. Sitting on them. And then when it gets to the expiry date, I'm in a very flexible position to say, OK, I'll sell half of the lot.
Right. And when you're dealing with a five, six, seven hundred, nine hundred thousand percent gain, selling half the lot is going to
secure a lot of profits. It's going to secure more than, you know, the initial far more.
And so sometimes I don't even need to sell half. I'll sell 20 percent of the contract,
30 percent of the contracts and I'll exercise the rest. And with these names where I'm paying
very, very small amounts of premium, 60 cents, 70 cents, a dollar, a dollar 20,
the exercise cost is very low, right? I mean,
the net exercise cost is very low compared to the total gain on the position. So A, I save taxes by
doing that. B, I get shares at a very, very favorable cost-based advantage, right? In this
case with Viavi, I'll be getting shares at half the price, less than half the price, the current
price. And then on
top of all of that, I don't have to take additional risk on options as the stock progresses. So that's
what I like to do. I like to buy slightly out of the money options with time and then just sit on.
And as the stock goes up and the options go in the money, they effectively become the same beta
as shares in the portfolio, right? Because when they get 10, 15, $20 of the money, they effectively become the same beta as shares in the portfolio.
Right. Because when they get 10, 15, $20 of the money, the contracts, they're not trading with the same volatility that out of the money contracts would trade. So that's how I like to
approach options. It's not a very typical strategy. It's not something you certainly
see people teaching on Twitter. You know, if you were to just take the X's crowd advice for it,
they would say, buy the 110 calls. And it goes to 110, buy the 120 calls. And when it goes to 120,
buy the 130 calls. The issue with that strategy for me always has been is the incremental risk
involved, right? And options are time sensitive. So, you know, you're in a stock at 105,
you buy the 110 calls, stock goes to 112, you roll to 120, and then the market chops for three months.
What happens to those 120 calls?
You burn them, right?
They become a loss.
For me, though, holding those 110 calls, right, stock bounces around between 112 to 15.
Those 110 calls don't turn into a loss.
They just turn into in-the-money calls.
They just turn into in-the-money calls.
Yeah, you see some volatility in the unrealized gain,
but they don't turn into an absolute loss like rolling contracts would.
And so that's just why I don't roll contracts.
Yeah, I used to, but I don't anymore.
And actually, it's funny.
Since I stopped rolling contracts, my gains have been supremely better.
I probably stopped rolling contracts, I don't know, four or five years ago.
Ever since I stopped doing that, my gains have been much better because they're easier to hold.
And on top of all of that, the other thing it does is it gives you buying power flexibility,
right? Because, you know, like, for example, with VIAV, right. Every hundred contracts is going to cost you,
you know, 150 grand, right. At the current price at $15, the contracts that I own,
right. When I bought them, I bought them at, you know, $1.35, they're 1535.35 now. The capital that I put in to control the stock is much lower than the capital it would have required to just buy the shares outright. And so then I get to hold the stock at a discounted amount of capital committed for X period of time. And that allows me to be in more stocks with more size at the same time. Right. So
that's why I do it that way. But that's kind of a simple explanation of why I don't roll
contracts. So I just sit on in the money contracts. Yes, you lose out on the additional
delta. You lose out on the juice, if you will, from out of the money contracts. But again, I get rewarded for that in
the early stages of the trade. I get rewarded for that in the first few weeks of the trade when the
stock comes off the base, breaks out or whatever the case is, whatever I'm trading at the time,
and gives me that cushion immediately. That's how you get rewarded for the out-of-the-money risk that you took.
And then I don't feel the need to continually take that out-of-the-money risk over and over and over and over again.
So that's why I don't roll.
So, yeah, that's the basic philosophy behind it.
Yeah.
There's some fair points there.
For me, from my perspective, and listen i don't sit here and
call myself a profitable trader in here so that's why i don't come in and give my opinions on it
for me i use options when i do on this ones it's much more closer to uh a gambling mentality which
is why i don't use them that much honestly and i end up holding too long and for me uh rolling
has been a way to at least when i am up take a
take some sort of a win it just has been an easier mindset you can just sell contracts
you don't have to like to take a win you don't have to roll you can just sell contracts
just something psychological this it just is better for me first of all earlier that's probably
why you're not a profitable options probably i'm's probably why I'm not a profitable options trader.
Early on, I wasn't buying enough contracts where it was like,
what am I going to sell?
Like 50% the entire thing?
I was buying one or two contracts.
I tell this to new traders all the time,
and I'll tell this to you too as well,
since you're struggling with profitability on options.
But try this for six months. Instead of buying far out of the money contracts buy
contracts less than 10 out of the money with 90 days of time at least just try it don't change
the stocks you're buying it on don't change your stock picking never do any of that just do that
buy contracts less than 10 of the money with 90 plus data
times and just see how your profitability changes the vast majority of people
that are new traders that I've talked to that have difficulty with options when
I've given them that advice the feedback has been excellent and the feedback of
their profitability is an excellent like I did not used to be profitable on
options like nine ten years ago when I been excellent. Like I did not used to be profitable on options.
Like nine, 10 years ago,
when I first started trading options,
I was not profitable.
But when I changed my strategy,
I became very profitable.
Like my options profits in the last five years straight
have been well in the green.
Like I have not had a single losing year on options at all.
And then you hear these stats, like 99% of options traders lose money.
The reason that stat is said, even though I don't think that's true, but the reason that
stat is shared is because 99% of options traders are buying lotto tickets.
They're not using options to control shares, which is the whole point of options, right?
Like options were invented initially to hedge and were used
institutionally going forward to control larger amounts of shares with less capital. That's the
whole point. And so when you buy like an option 45% out of the money, that's just a lotto ticket.
You're not really controlling the shares because if price goes against you for five days, you're cooked.
Those contracts are going to get crushed.
And on the flip side, when you buy close to the money contracts, the burn is much less severe.
Price can go against you for a few weeks and you'd be down 14%, 15% of the contracts as opposed to being down 50% or 60% of the contracts.
14 15 percent of the contracts as opposed to being down 50 or 60 percent on the contract so um yeah
if you're in the audience and you're somebody that like trades options and you don't make money doing
it in fact you lose money doing it try that try that just try that simple change by 10 percent
less than 10 percent of the money um sometimes i buy five or six percent of the money and then
by at least 90 days of time. At least.
Ideally more.
In the case of Biavi in October, I mean, I don't know how much time that is.
October, November, December, January, February.
Six months of time I bought.
Right?
So 180 days of time is even better. But buy time and buy close to money.
And you'll make more money from options.
Simple.
It's like that easy.
Then that's where you get, you're taking less gambling risk essentially
you you're just saying look I like the stock I want to own a lot of the stock
I'm gonna buy some shares but I'm going to accentuate that share position by
owning close to the money so I like to refer to them close to the money options
to add some juice to your position.
And that's what creates really parabolic movers.
I mean, do the same thing with Amcor, right?
Like, I own a lot of Amcor contracts right now, the 25 calls on Amcor I own, which are coming up for expiry on March 20th.
Back, I bought these, when did I buy these?
I bought these back in September of last year
when I opened Amcor, right?
In the first week of September.
And I bought those at an average of $3.15, right?
Today, those are trading at $23 each, right?
So they're up 630%.
And that's a huge position for me.
I hadn't felt the need to convert that
into shares early or anything
because they're acting or anything because they're
acting like shares because they're $23 in the money, right? So when March comes up, I'll sell
some of those and I'll exercise some of them and I'll get Amcor shares at $28 per share and the
stock is trading at $48. So that's kind of like, you know, and I can go down the list. I have
contracts like that of every kind.
Like I have ENS contracts.
I have the 115 calls, which I bought at $8.
Those are trading at $58.
They're up 600%.
Those also expire in March.
I'll sell some of those and exercise some of those, right?
I mean, I have this with, you know, Pangea Logistics, the stock that I brought up for you guys a few weeks ago.
I have 7.5 calls.
I bought those at $0.60.
They're now trading at $2.25. Those are up weeks ago. I have 7.5 calls. I bought those at 60 cents.
They're now trading at $2.25. Those are up almost 300%. I'll exercise some of those. I'll sell some of them. Huntington Ingalls, I have a $300 call expiring in March. I bought it at $17. Those are
now worth $150 each. Those are up 700% as well, 760% actually. I will be selling some of those,
exercising some of those like they go down the
list like Kratos pretty much every position major winning position that I've had in the last couple
of years I have very deep in the money contracts that give me flexibility to either close the
position out entirely and just sell them all and take the 700 or 1000% gain or whatever it is or
sell some of them take some profits and then sell some of them, take some profits,
and then exercise some of them to stay in if I want to keep the stock.
So it just gives you a tremendous amount of flexibility
to manage your portfolio during periods of volatility.
So that's why I do it.
Yeah.
Obviously, good day in the markets today.
I'm not going to do any celebratory run about stocks being up
because most stocks were up today.
So, yeah, obviously, good day in the market outside of that.
It was a good rundown right there.
We got three minutes, three minutes until the market closed.
There's a couple earnings stock talking on that you're interested in, right?
Lucid does report.
I mean.
No, there are.
I know I'm interested in Lucid, but there are some.
Let me see. There were some I saw this morning.
They were interesting. Hold on.
Apple MacBook Bro
with touchscreen launching this fall?
No, dude.
They're going to make me buy another MacBook.
Do you want a touchscreen?
Well, that sounds
cool.
I love MacBooks, though.
I've always owned MacBooks.
MacBooks are like... I love MacBooks.
Apple's working on a touchscreen MacBook Pro
with the first touchscreen Macs expected this fall.
The redesign is also said to replace the notch
with a hole-punch cutout
that works as a dynamic island.
Wall Street Legends tweet.
Ah, Bloomberg article. Let me go ahead and get it in front of me.
Who's
reporting?
There are a lot of people reporting, actually,
at the end of this week.
NVIDIA's tomorrow, but today there's a MercadoLibre.
There is a
RealtyIncome, Tempest AI,
Zeta, Transmedix, Kava, First Solar, Oxon, HPQ.
There's a couple names.
Yeah, there are a couple.
A couple tomorrow as well, a couple Friday as well.
Obviously, the NVIDIA earnings need to get out of the way.
Before, I feel like buying anything.
But there are a couple of names I'm looking at.
A couple of reports I've seen that felt like had underwhelming reactions.
So we'll see if I decide to get into any of those.
Here we go.
We got a good earnings day coming in front of us we're getting some headlines
thrown at us randomly on the spaces stripe and paypal apple i'm seeing another headline here
i don't know if this is from apple itself apple to unleash first ever touchscreen macbook for
this fall there's one of the headlines that's going around i'm trying to find the actual article
itself it looks like it's a Bloomberg story, obviously.
That is what he said.
But yeah, we're coming to the market close
here. Let me switch to this different feed,
see what time a lot of these names come out.
MercadoLibre looks like a 4.15.
Restly really look like a lot of 4.05s.
So we might have
a little dead space here at the close.
But yeah, market is going to be done here for the close. But yeah,
market is going to be done here for the day.
Earnings
coming up. There was an
AMD and Meta story, which
maybe I'd like to hear your thoughts on later.
Not right now. Apple coming back to the US,
doing some more manufacturing there.
There was a story actually earlier today that
Stripe finished
its round at $159 billion valuation.
Did just get that market close.
So I got my eyes over there.
And then Claude.
Claude coming in, disrupting everyone, taking everyone's sector, eating kids' lunch.
Stock talk, Claude's going to replace us all.
Any software is dead.
I assume so.
I mean, sometime this week, sometime soon,
they're going to come out with a headline around
replacing influencers, replacing stock pickers.
I think that would be more scary to you than whatever.
I have a question on that additional order that they placed,
the order Apple placed with TSM in Arizona,
is that moving an order from Taiwan or is that additional?
Because if they're making an additional purchase,
then that's a good sign for their quarter.
So it's, Ooh, it sounds like additional.
There, there wasn't necessarily much about a purchase in there.
There was them talking
about that they're on track to buy more than 100 million chips from the uh tsmc factory was there
a timeline associated with that this year that's that's good that's uh well that's about as good
news as you can get for apple right if they are buying more that means they have demand so that's about as good news as you can get for apple right if they are buying more that means
they have demand so that's a great sign well certainly it should be for you apple in-house
mac mini super cluster coming soon take the advantage make uh what if apple all of a sudden
gets to the front of the ai race? How about them Apple stock talk?
I mean, they're not going to be in front of the AI race,
but they are more insulated from risk for sure.
You know, to the extent that there's risk attached to the AI trade,
they're more insulated from it.
I think that's by design.
I think that's why they probably didn't participate in development of of their own model but um they remain the sort of the the crown prince of of
device so yeah i mean they'll help deliver ai that's sure. Are they going to be an AI leader? I wouldn't describe them that way.
But yeah, they'll help deliver it.
They don't have to be, right?
I mean, eventually, in a few quarters, we'll start a new benchmark on their services revenue,
which will tell us how much they're getting from Google for the Gemini's exclusivity, right?
So that is going to help their margin
one way or the other.
I think they played it well enough
rather than just spending,
which there is no guarantee
for any return there, right?
Look at how things went wrong for meta.
For the record,
there are some earnings coming out.
I've seen Workday moving lower.
Revenue was a beat.
I'm seeing EPS was a small beat as well.
I guess there's going to be something on forward guidance.
Axon also report earnings.
I saw an initial move higher there, but it ended up,
it wasn't too crazy of a move there.
I'm seeing Mercado Libre numbers also out.
Don't have the numbers just yet in front of me mercado libre stock up 10 in after hours what are the numbers
revenue at 8.75 billion expected 8.47 billion eps 11.03 expected 11.43 um tempest ai earnings 367.21 million uh actual expected 363.39 million eps minus four
cents versus minus five cents expected and then axon 796.72 million versus 755.29 million expected EPS 215 versus 1.60 expected we're waiting on kava still I believe
and I'm sure some people are worried about Zeta workday just Mercado Libre is up 5% now, but I was going to see, yeah, go. Workday, $2.53 billion
versus $2.52 billion.
EPS, $2.47.
Expected, $2.32.
Double beat for them, too.
Melly, I'm just
going to have this one up on the screen. I know a lot of you watching
it at 4.1% right now.
I want to see some more of those numbers. That's what I'm specifically have this one up on the screen. I know a lot of you watching it at 4.1% right now. I want to see some of the more,
more of those numbers.
That's what I'm specifically watching for.
I was going to say on Kava,
I was muted.
Actually.
I think that the food is slightly above average and the price is
reasonable.
I think it's a good combo.
I think it's a good place.
The price of the stock or the price of the food.
I apologize.
Yeah.
Nothing about the stock.
I actually have not looked into it.
I just took a,
I bought someone convinced me to buy one share. It might have been you.
And then I took a fat L. I literally bought the top.
And I blame you. And then...
Yeah, that's what it is. Only one share.
You bought it after hours after they put out the best report that they've ever put.
Every seller just reported.
solar disappointed that one should be moving
That one should be moving.
hey listen the market chooses to blame who the market chooses to blame
you know now that i have two minutes now that i have more monitors
my computer i just have more tabs up now.
And my computer is a little bit slower.
So that's also what's happening here.
I see the squad joining in.
Make sure you're following the speakers.
I appreciate everyone.
Let's take a look at the watch list.
Best performing stocks today.
CoreWeave was up 10%. We got the 2X CoreWe etf from our friends leverages crwg for the people
who trade that one i don't know be careful but core crwg was up 20 today what's up we got zeta
earnings a lot of people care about that one 394.63 million revenue versus 379.25 million expected. What's
strange is they did not give us an EPS
and we were expecting $0.23.
Interesting.
I know people do care about that
one. Yeah, it's at $17.15
in after hours. It is up
Not a huge mover there. Maybe it seems
like more people were waiting for some information there.
Yeah.
They didn't give EPS, which is pretty strange.
Transmedics.
$160.76 million revenue.
Expected $155.28 million.
EPS, $2.62 versus $0.37 expected.
Guess what my Transmedix cost basis is.
I own a couple shares.
Nothing crazy.
Not a big position.
But what do you think my cost basis is?
I'm going to say $70.
Cost is $80.
So, you know, listen, we'll get me in front of them for the BM&Rs.
We're going to take Ws every once tomorrow when they're up.
O just reported earnings, realty income, $1.4 billion, $1.39 billion expected.
EPS, $0.32, $0.38 expected.
Did you read out for first solar no i did not 1.63 billion versus 1.57 billion expected
EPS four dollars and 84 cents versus five dollars 24 cents expected fsr is down 13%. Lucid numbers?
14%.
522.73 million
versus 459.54 million.
EPS minus $3.08
versus minus $2.67
expected.
Be done revenue.
Miss on EPS for Lucid I want to get back to Melly and Zeta
to me those are the two that most people
end up watching here let me down down below
let me check that spaces chat i think someone in your chat wants i think your chat wants you to talk about your new edition
uh stock talk um but we will uh talk about that a little there's literally two or three
comments down below from people i think who are in your group are trying to
who might be owners of CentStock.
Who might want it to be talked about.
I don't know.
But yeah, MercadoLibre, Zeta.
Melly did a little bit of a turnaround there.
Now up just 1%.
Zeta EPS, 28 cents.
There you go.
Sometimes it just takes a second.
Takes a second.
Wolf account.
That is up here. Posted all the numbers.
You can dig into that and find that.
For what? Yourself.
DMDX up 8% now. Nice.
My goal is to sell at 50%. We'll see.
Alright.
Stock talk.
What's up?
Can we hear
maybe a little bit more about this stock pick that I haven't heard anything about?
Sometimes the door gets shut in your face.
And that's how you react after, you know?
Not necessarily at that moment in time.
Okay, so looking around, Transmedic still moving higher
sorry I was
talking to my brother
yeah
the stock's ITRON
ticker ITRI
I think we opened it on Friday that's why we didn't talk
about it because of the that's why we didn't talk about it because um
of uh the show's not on friday so that's probably why we didn't talk about it
um but yeah it's it's in my power grid basket uh it's about a 5.3 ish percent position now
no a little less than that 5.2 ishish. And so essentially what they are is they are a grid-edge technology provider.
They focus on advanced metering infrastructure.
They have basically a monopoly on it in the United States.
60% of all electric metering infrastructure that's deployed in The United States is deployed by itron and roughly 75 to 80% of all electricity in the United States goes through their meters.
Um, so for a mid cap, it's about as close to monopoly as, as you can get, um, about two thirds,
a little over two thirds of their overall revenue comes from electricity. Then they have about
20% of their revenue from water and then about 10% from their other businesses. But it is very, very heavily
weighted towards grid renewal and grid infrastructure. The chart is not great. It's
below the 200 day moving average. It's attempting to bottom down here, but it hasn't been acting
exceedingly well. So I do think it'll be a little bit of a headache to hold from a technical standpoint.
It's important to keep in mind.
It's not going to be like a straight up and to the right kind of name.
But I do think the valuation is compelling down here.
They have an outcome segment that's growing really fast is where my focus is.
That's where a lot of their ARR is.
They posted 23% growth in their ARR in the last quarter,
and they put out 2027 targets two and a half years ago,
and they hit those 2027 targets within the 2025 calendar year,
so two years ahead of schedule.
Those were profitability targets for them.
So I think they're executing well on their bottom line growth. It's not a top
line growth story at all.
Their top line growth has stagnated significantly
over the last couple of years, but it is
a bottom line growth story
like a lot of my other plays recently.
And yeah, I think
they're just well positioned to benefit
from
the renewal of the electric grid over the next few years.
And the idea that metering infrastructure is required for any new electrical inputs.
And so that is the basic thesis.
I obviously have a very, very detailed five or six paragraph thesis in the discord, but that is the gist of it um not a core position
just an addition to the the power grid basket obviously if you know the stock continues to
uh grind back up and and position itself and rebuild structure then there's a scenario where
i would add to it but for now i'm just seeing how it acts down here i don't love how the daily charts acting last couple of sessions so we'll have to see um how it does but yeah that that is um a new position
for us so are they like do they uh install are they like do they install it do they maintain it
the the meter everything okay and then And then install and maintain the system.
Is this like a regional thing?
Extract intelligence from the system.
Like a national market?
Sorry, is it an international market or a national market?
No, is it regional or national?
It's a national market.
It's 81% of the revenue comes from North America,
and basically all the power in North America runs through their meters.
They are the leader in metering technology, period.
They don't really have a competitor. There's competitors to them on the water side. Uh, there's a company called badge meter BM. I think BMI is the ticker. Yeah. BMI
is the ticker. They're a competitor of theirs on the water metering side. Uh, but I'm not interested
in a pure play water metering exposure. Like Badger does like only water.
And so, you know, I don't mind having some water exposure,
but I want primarily electricity exposure.
And so that's where the differentiation is for ITRI.
ITRI is primarily electricity.
And then Badge is primarily water.
And then you have bigger players like hub and xyl
they're bigger competitors um but they are also much more expensive um on a valuation basis so
you know they're 30 40 billion dollar stocks but they're they're trading at higher valuations
so yeah i think versus peers considering the thematic opportunity, you know, trading at 11 times free cashflow,
less than two times sales. Like it, it's worth betting on for an inflection in the business,
I think. Um, and even if you don't get an inflection in the top line, I think
you continue to get the growth in the bottom line that you've been seeing. And I think the
stock probably re rates at some point. So, you know, I never know if I'm
stock probably re-rates at some point. So, you know, I never know if I'm a little early or right
on time. You know, I tend to be pretty good in my timing, but obviously it's a choppy market. So,
you know, that can get in the way of things, um, in terms of timing, but, um, yeah, I don't expect
it to be, like I said, a face ripper up into the right or anything. But I do think over
the next few quarters, they can probably prove the value there. They did a pretty sizable
convertible note offering, um, what was it yesterday? Um, that gives them more liquidity.
They had a very nice cash position already. They've been generating, uh, some nice net income
boosts off their cash um and so that should
give them even more financial flexibility but yeah that's the that's the basic story there
do they work mostly with like businesses or the like houses and stuff everything i mean i mean
i'll put it this way 75 to 80% of all electricity in the United States.
So that includes houses and businesses, yes.
Can I add something, Stockton?
Yeah.
So if you have a smart meter at home, more than likely it's ITRON. So we have both gas and electricity meters, and they are both ITRON.
So they deal with utilities.
So the utilities, they don't supply to homes.
The utilities are the ones that own the meter, right?
So the utilities have deals with them not only for the meter, but also for the data flow, right? So the utilities have deals with them, not only for the meter, but also for
the data flow, right? Remember, that's
the maintenance thing, because they can,
you know, they,
these smart meters are used to manage,
you know, even purchase
of electricity, right? So
all that data flowing is
flows through ITRON, you know,
to the utility, finally, with
all the, you know, the data analytics with with with uh with all the you know
the the data analytics intelligence from them so it's a good business yeah yeah they have like
like you mentioned the data they also like you know anytime you want to integrate like
battery packs battery energy storage systems best uh ev charging solar systems you want to
integrate any of those things in the grid.
A lot of the data intelligence that comes from metering infrastructure makes that a lot easier.
And even if you have leaks, theft of normal usage, any of that stuff, it all comes from the metering data. So yeah, it is a very interesting business. Obviously, I would like
to see more top line growth in the business,
but that's kind of what I'm betting on is that the top line growth will show up as we get more
and more investment in the grid. It's sort of like a direct one, not one-to-one, but it's a
direct beneficiary of grid infrastructure renewal period and grid modernization as well. If you're
modernizing grid infrastructure,
you know, there's a lot of old metering infrastructure out there, legacy metering infrastructure, a lot of it. And in order to have any kind of smart grid infrastructure,
smart city infrastructure, you need advanced metering infrastructure, AMI. And that's what
they specialize in. So yeah, it's, it's, it's a niche business. It is, you know, maybe not the
sexiest business in the world, but it is
a niche business that's effectively a monopoly in the metering space at a pretty, pretty small
market cap. So if you see more investment in the grid, there will be more meters and they will
likely be deployed by a Tron. That's the basic thesis. And that's the thesis behind all of my
grid positions, PLPC and ENS as well. Same thesis,
right? Like, you know, PLPC makes line hardware, fitting substations, ENS makes energy storage
systems, industrial scale batteries. And so all of those things are kind of hand in hand in terms of
like, you invest in the grid, you need all of those things. And so you will see,
you know,
potential benefits from that.
So that's really where,
what the thesis is built around with that one.
Okay.
Very interesting.
Yeah.
Where,
where does this start in the portfolio?
Like,
the power grid basket.
What about sizing-wise?
I opened it at about 5.5.
It's sitting at about 5.2 right now.
Just comments? No calls?
Just comments.
I'm not buying calls in this environment.
It was stock-tock.
When you said it, it moved up.
Yeah,
And then it came back down.
but I mean,
I think that there's no,
I mean,
it moved up after hours.
right now.
Oh yeah.
yeah,
I'm sure people are listening,
but tomorrow you guys put it open.
Don't,
don't buy one.
It's a liquid.
yeah,
don't buying an after hours is not something I ever recommend to people, but,
um, yeah, it is, uh, it's an interesting, it's an interesting stock. I think it is very well
positioned for exactly what I'm looking for, which is just multi-year grid exposure. I don't
want to be in the grid trade for like a couple of months. I want to be in the grid trade for a
couple of years. Um, so you know, that the basket will likely be expanded months. I want to be in the grid trade for a couple of years.
So, you know, that the basket will likely be expanded further. I'll probably add three or four additional names to that. The grid basket, I would like to have five or six names in there
going into 2030. You know, I think that you're going to see a lot of money be poured into the
grid. I mean, when I think about all the stuff that's happened this week,
all the fear in the markets and, you know, the Citrini article and all this
and all that stuff that's been talked about.
I mean, we've been talking about that stuff for years on here
about the risk to the labor market, about AI.
And I am on the same page with Citrini about the risks.
But I think that when you really think about the economy
and like an ai age i really think it's about the two w's wafers and watts you know if somebody
were to tell me like hey stock talk put all the the nuance aside and tell me where my money should
be for the next 10 years i would very confidently say wafers and watts which is you know chips and electricity um because if you if you just close
your eyes and you don't have to have read the the the substack article that satrini put out or any
of that stuff if you just close your eyes and like imagine a world where you know ai is extremely
capable and deployed everywhere and there's huge amounts of inference.
You'll have a, a lot of compute and be a lot of electricity need. And like, there's an argument
that wafers and Watts will become the new currency in an age like that. And that everything will be
benchmarked against the cost of wafers and Watts. And that's where I see us headed. So that's where I'm trying
to position my portfolio around. I have a lot of exposure to both of those categories. And I plan
to build more. I will be buying more chip supply chain stocks. I will be buying more power grid
stocks. I will be holding them pretty solidly, you know, through the volatility. There's going to be names that I get shaken
out of, of course, through that trade. I'm not going to hold everything. But, you know,
the intention is to hold those names for a multi-year period. I think that's the best
investment thesis for the next 10 years. Buy wafers, buy watts, invest in wafers, invest in watts, and just wait. I think it's for somebody that doesn't want to do a lot. I think that you
will make a lot of money just doing that. If you're somebody that's like a passive investor
or doesn't spend a lot of time on this, that would be my, I won't call it advice, but that would be
my thesis on the next 10 years. I think those companies are going to benefit extremely. And I also think if you look at the resilience in power grid stocks,
I mean, E&S is a great example just because of how resilient that stock has been
through volatility. But if you look at any of the power grid stocks, they have been extremely
strong during market volatility in the last year and a half, two years, extremely strong.
And I think there's a reason for that, because I think institutional bids are keeping these things
alive. If you scroll through a list of 10 or 15 power grid and electricity infrastructure related
names under a 10 billion market cap, you will be astonished at the level of institutional
ownership on these names. You're talking 80, 90, in some cases, 95% institutional ownership on these names.
Why is that?
It's because I think other people see what I see with that.
And that it's a very straightforward trade.
It's not like a very complex thesis.
It's the idea that electricity is the lifeblood of technology.
And if you think that AI is going to take over the world,
you need a shitload more electricity than we have today. And you need a much more capable grid,
not just in the United States, but globally. And you need more energy storage systems. And you need
more metering infrastructure, and that too, smart metering infrastructure, and you need a lot of it.
And so I just think about these things in a very straightforward way. I don't like try
to overcomplicate thesis. I see something happening secularly in the economy, a theme
that's emerging that I don't think is going away. And I try to position myself to benefit from that.
And sometimes you get into stocks a quarter, two quarters, three quarters too early.
Okay. You know, and other times you get into stocks at the right time. Like,
you know, my timing on ENS and PLPC was pretty good last year.
So you just have to figure out, first understand the industry, which is, I think, the part
that a lot of people skip.
First, you understand the industry and all the components that go into the industry.
Like, I did so much research on substations and cables and fittings and all that stuff
last year.
I had no, I'm not an expert in electric grid infrastructure I have no background in that but I spent I don't
know 50 60 hours late last year just learning the industry and then another
50 to 100 hours going through the stocks and really trying to understand
everything so it takes some work but theme identification is a pretty easy part of the game.
It's the easiest part of the game.
You know, I get a lot of people, I do these workshops in our community, like trying to
explain my process and how I think about stocks and look at charts.
And I get a lot of questions a lot of times about, you know, where and when do you identify themes?
And I always tell people, I'm like, that's the easiest part.
Like figuring out what's happening or what will happen in the economy,
I don't think is exceedingly hard to do from a thematic standpoint.
What's hard is knowing when to buy the stocks and which stocks to buy
and how long to hold them and when they're overvalued
and when they're undervalued.
That's hard.
That's the hard part. team identification is easy i mean the power grid ai you know aerospace
and defense shipbuilding these things have been in your face for two years and you know you look
at the stocks involved in those themes they're all up a lot you know huntington ingles has been
one of the best performing stocks for me for this year.
And you go look through the shipbuilding breakdown that was shared.
You know, you get another Virginia class sub.
You get three more destroyers, DDG class destroyers.
Those are all built by Huntington.
Or at least Huntington is a major subcontractor involved in the building of...
Where physically are they built?
Because I know we don't have
that many shipbuilders.
Well, Newport News,
owned by Huntington,
is a significant shipbuilder.
So is General Dynamics Shipyard
for both of those.
But Huntington has been
a subcontractor on every single
General Dynamics shipbuilding contract
for like the last three years.
Like you can pull up,
you can go pull up
any General Dynamics shipbuilding award
and go to the subcontracting section.
Huntington's on every one.
You know, Huntington is a very, very uniquely positioned company, public company in the United States.
That's why I haven't sold a share yet.
I mean, I got it in the 200s.
Stock's trading in the 400s.
I haven't sold anything.
Not one share.
Because I understand the position they're in.
And frankly, the stock's not even that expensive here compared to a lot of other aerospace and defense peers.
Like you look at the valuation Kratos is trading at or Aero of Ironman.
Like they're trading at insane valuations.
Huntington's not there yet.
So, you know, I'm not going to get ahead of myself.
But I mean, I think there's a chance it's a thousand dollar stock.
You know, it's a $440 stock today.
We got it in the 200.
I think there's a chance a thousand dollar stock.
So I'm not selling that.
So yeah, my overall stock picking ammo is I try to find mid-cap companies that are either
effective monopolies or they have very, very unique niche control.
And when you have uniqueness in a small market cap it
is a recipe for success because you know these four or five six billion dollar
companies generally don't have the scale to control an industry and in the cases
that they do it is usually a product of excellence product or service excellence
like it's really if you're a $4
billion company, the amount of larger hundred, you know, 80, 80 to a hundred billion dollar
companies that you have to compete with to control an industry is usually inhibitive,
right? It's like impossible to compete with those companies because of scale. But in some cases,
you have such a unique product service or set of expertise that you're required.
And those are the companies I try to look for.
Everything from Amcor to E&S to Huntington to Kratos, all these stocks, when I bought
them, fit that bill.
And many of them still fit that bill today.
So that's my ammo with stock picking. I find mid-cap stocks that
fill a very, very unique niche that I want direct exposure to, and I just buy them and hold them.
And sometimes they're a bit annoying in the first few weeks or first few months, but it's
the understanding of the thesis that keeps me in these types of names. I don't ever really get
easily shaken out. I do get shaken out. I'm not saying out. You know, I do get shaken out.
I'm not saying I never sell anything.
I do get shaken out of stock sometimes,
but I don't get easily shaken out because I understand the thesis
and I understand, like, what I'm looking for
and how that stock fulfills exactly what I'm looking for.
So, yeah, that's kind of how I think about stocks.
Thanks.
Monitiv, you've been chiming in a good bit here.
I wonder if you have any thoughts on what he's been talking about.
I could prompt him for more stuff,
but were there any topics or anything there that's standing out for you?
Let's stand out for you.
Any other things we haven't talked about today?
Any other things we haven't talked about today?
Well, nothing today.
Obviously, tomorrow is a huge day for me.
I have a huge position in NVIDIA.
So that's important.
But it's also important for the AI market health
to have NVIDIA execute properly.
So tomorrow is a big deal.
Today, not so much.
I really have nothing today.
Can you hear me?
Yep, yep.
I got you.
I got you.
I appreciate that.
Stock talk.
Tomorrow is a big day.
I know you were talking.
We need to get through NVIDIA earnings.
I imagine for a lot of your names that are in the smaller ones are gonna be impacted by this one but obviously you're not
trading nvidia it's just kind of a catalyst that people are waiting for today was a good day though
today was a good day though um so i don't know i'm curious how you're feeling going into tomorrow
maybe the first half of the day doesn't matter that matter that much. I mean, we're in a choppy market, so I'm not going to, like,
over-read into today's action.
But, yeah, you do need NVIDIA to have a good quarter, I think.
I mean, the Qs look like they're attempting to bottom here,
but they just have not been able to get above that 21 EMA.
And so that's still a point of concern on the daily chart for the Qs,
Still a point of concern on the daily chart for the Qs.
just constant rejections of the 21.
You know, last two big green gandals we had on Friday and today,
just neither of them even touched it.
So not quite there yet in terms of structure repair.
We have retaken the 21-week EMA on the Qs, which is half encouraging.
ema on the queues which is half encouraging um but yeah structure isn't quite all the way
repaired for my taste yet i'd like to see us back above uh 610 on the queues at least
um to feel better about that that would bring us back above um oh sorry six what is that six ten yeah six ten i'd like to see us back above that um ideally
back above the hundred day which is 614 um before i feel you know gung-ho about the market again but
we're just right now i'm just you know writing this off as a period of chop
um obviously if things worsen or another negative catalyst comes on the table
then it could turn into worse than that but markets look like they are defending themselves
here so far um at least trying to to build a little bit of a base to reverse off of but um
that doesn't mean that there's not more chop ahead obviously if nvidia earnings are bad tomorrow then
that structure will just completely break down.
And you also have Trump's State of the Union tonight,
which will, I think, likely in some way impact markets.
Whether or not he talks about tariffs or not, I think is probably a question.
a question.
So we'll see.
So we'll see.
I think Speaker Johnson's actually talking about that right now,
saying codifying tariffs would be difficult.
We do have a State of the Union address tonight.
That should be a little intriguing.
That's what I just said, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
So that should be coming up.
I know there were some rumors in talking about
data centers
and sharing some of the
cost of electricity.
The large companies doing that.
I don't know.
There was also people,
Mike brought up the point that,
a lot of people were talking about Iran
over this past weekend.
Is that something he's going to really want to do
right before his, say,
the union address?
I don't know if there was correlation, is not correlation.
I don't know, but they did seem to not do it.
So that, say, the union address will be a little bit of interesting tonight.
Yeah, I don't think that...
I don't think it's going to matter that much.
I think it's going to be most of the politics.
Yeah, yeah. think that i don't think it's gonna be i don't think it's matter that much things are gonna be yeah yeah i think no i think i think they're like last year i paid close attention to it because um there is always like policy cues um there is you know even last year's state of the union
there was a lot of talk about shipbuilding that's's one of the reasons I got into Huntington. So I do pay attention to State of the Union. I do think it moves markets. I do
think it moves industries. So yeah, I do pay a lot of attention to it, actually. There's usually
another theme you can pick up on in the State of the Union, from my experience. So yeah, I pay a
lot of attention to State of the Union speeches interesting interesting interesting okay
sick I did not think that would be the case but here we are assumptions you
know what happens you know what happens there was some other news stories today
it sounded like someone else was unmuted there and we can feel free to jump in when they want to as well there are some other news stories today
i didn't hear your take i don't think on the meta amd stuff here did you share your take on that
oh i didn't i didn't really look at the details of that deal
i saw it this morning but i didn't really look at the details of that deal. I saw it this morning, but I didn't really look at it.
Yeah, so...
Meta AMD announced a 6 gigawatt agreement
to power Meta's next generation of AI infrastructure
using AMD's chips.
So Meta will use a lot of AMD chips,
basically like $100 billion worth
over a certain amount of period.
AMD has given...
Did it say over how long of a period?
Monotive was saying five years.
I didn't see a number necessarily at this point.
I heard five years is a number someone said on the internet.
So let me go in and dig a little deeper.
But I think it's five years.
But also part of the deal is AMD is giving meta warrants
to buy up to 160 million shares of AMD stock,
which is like 10% of the company or something.
I think it was a large number,
maybe a little smaller, maybe a big,
but it was a meaningful bit.
And it was based on performance,
like when they hit certain milestones.
The first one was at one gigawatt.
AMD meta deal.
AMD meta deal.
Let me see if I can see if there's a timeline.
Let me see if I could see if there's a timeline.
I think it might be five years.
I think it might be five years.
Could see AMD meta owning as much as 10% of AMD stock.
Data centers using up to six gigawatts of computing power
over the next five years.
It was five years.
Yeah, I mean, that's good validation for AMD.
Let's see.
At some point, is it like a, you know,
Monson brought up the point here,
and we've heard different takes,
is that this, you know, it means
from an NVIDIA perspective, competition is coming.
You know, it also can mean, listen,
like if you're a meta and you're spending, means from nvidia perspective competition is coming you know it also can mean listen like
if you're a meta and you're spending giving nvidia 70 gross margin no matter what you're
going to continuously throw stuff in the in the ring and this was amd literally having to give
up 10 of their company to make this happen so i don't know i oh they gave up 10 to meta? Yeah. In warrants, if stuff, if like milestones get met.
Yeah, that's pretty lame.
Good for meta, probably.
Yeah, but that's a lame
way to secure an order.
From AMD, yeah.
Yeah.
So, I don't know.
It still probably
is a
bullish
Nvidia world
but yeah
warrants 160 million
shares
certain milestones
yeah so they have to
bribe Meta
to buy their chips
like that's basically
what I'm hearing
give or take
that's what it sounds like
I don't know if anyone
comes in and disagrees
that was the deal
that is what
that's what that is.
AMD stock was up like 10%.
I don't know where it closed the day at, but it worked.
Yeah, I mean, you go from zero
hyperscale customers to one,
then you should probably get a boost from that.
It's quite the large percentage increase.
I don't love that.
I don't love that. I don't love that.
I don't like the Warren aspect of this.
What's your thoughts from a meta perspective?
I don't know.
I think that stock's cheap, but clearly the market doesn't want it.
So, I mean, I'm not in it, but the chart looks like shit,
but I mean,
the socks are subjectively cheap now.
I saw a headline that like Microsoft's also at its like lowest forward PE in
like four years or something.
I mean,
Meta's trading at a 0.95 peg ratio.
Price turning to growth.
18 forward PE, like uh it's cheap for for facebook that's cheap
the market the market definitely does not seem to value the uh the ai efforts there yeah they're
just worried about the capex it was pretty it seems pretty obvious to me that that's the concern here is giving up profitability to buy more chips.
But I mean, that stock,
Meta's been consolidating basically,
I don't want to call this a range
because you have the April crash within it.
But really since the beginning of 24,
I mean, the stock was trading 6.30,
beginning of 24, it's trading 6.30 today.
Sorry, end of 24 it's trading 6 30 today sorry end of 24 so beginning of 24 end of 24 so yeah it's been bouncing around since you know for like a year and three months
and it attempted to break out over the 200 day it had a really nice day to kick off
the end of jan January when it hit
744. I forgot what happened that day
that it gapped up so hard. It was some news or something.
And then, oh,
dude, that was the earnings, right?
No, it wasn't. What was that?
What was that on January 29th?
What was that January 29th
candle?
For AMD?
Meta.
Earnings?
Was it earnings?
Yeah, it would have been earnings, actually.
Yeah, it was.
Yeah, since then, it just faded into oblivion.
Came back below the 200-day.
Came back below the 50-day.
Just relentless selling since then.
So, I would like to get along on this stock at some
point i just don't love the daily setup here doesn't seem like a type of company to get into
though i have mega caps in my portfolio i haven't bought any recently but i have some okay i like
the monthly setup on meta if that means anything.
The weekly and daily look terrible
though, so that's probably not me.
Are you going to pull some Pelosi and buy some
deep in the money calls?
No, not deep in the money, but slightly out
of the money calls.
Is that how you play something like this?
If I was going to get into this
today, I would do it with 650 calls expiring late this year.
That's how I would play it.
Or maybe early next year, expiration.
But yeah, I'd play with some 650 or 660 calls.
I don't go far out of the money, like I was saying earlier.
That's how I would play it if I was playing this.
But,
I don't know.
This hasn't built a convincing area of support for me at all.
It's been very traded,
very sloppy.
And pretty much every push has gotten like faded.
Like if you pull the daily chart up over the last nine months,
like that is just like a brutal chart in terms of like price action.
Like every,
every pop gets faded and gets faded hard,
like six or seven days of selling in a row.
That's just not something I want to be involved in.
I would need to see this like build structure,
change attitude to want to get into it.
I think the stock is cheap.
It's just not very technically attractive
on the weekly or daily.
That makes me not want to buy it.
I'm surprised we even got it.
Sometimes someone asks
whatever I'm surprised they even got this for.
I'm surprised we got this for
on this conversation.
Interesting.
Metastalk.
What do we might be keeping an eye on?
I mean, for what it's worth, I think a lot of the Mag7 are cheap here.
Apple?
I knew the answer.
Sometimes you just try.
One day, he'll say yes Apple trees at nine times sales in with barely any growth double digits growth excuse me
sir yeah okay one quarter we'll see if that keeps up Google the thing is pretty
decently priced it's not like super cheap but it's pretty decently priced um i think amazon
is pretty decently priced i think amazon and and facebook are probably the most compelling in terms
of just raw valuation now if you add in like context and like you talk about like amazon's
consumer discretionary risk and you talk about Facebook's potential compromising activity to their net
income because of all this capex, then, you know, you could bring the context to it and
make the argument that they're cheap for a reason. But like scrolling through like the
balance sheets and the valuations of both Facebook and Amazon, I do think they are cheap.
of both Facebook and Amazon,
I do think they are cheap.
Historically speaking,
as far as the Mag 7 goes.
I mean, Walmart trading at twice
the valuation of Amazon right now
is pretty crazy.
Yeah, which is like insanity to me.
It makes perfect sense
when you're the best company in the world.
Amazon's not crazy.
I mean, I don't get why walmart and costco
are so expensive i think it's just because they perform in all economic environments and so they
get the benefit of the doubt because of that but i mean walmart trades like a 47 p it's like
ridiculous i don't understand um and costco trades like a 53 54 p like what is going on I don't know but yeah
I mean the stocks have done well so I can't hate I can't ace you know for
anyone that's in those good for them
there was a couple headlines around like tokenization and stable coins and all
that stuff today meta reportedly looking to and stable coins and all that stuff today
meta reportedly looking to add stable coins in the second half of the year and then there was
a story that um coinbase is launching 24 5 stock trading on its app for anyone who's a i anyone
uses queen base as your first broker i guess you can now now buy some stocks on there. I'm wondering if it's going to be like the Robinhood version or if it's going to be like these perpetual futures,
like some of these other firms have come out with over the last year, year and a half.
I think it's more of a Robinhood version, but I don't know.
Maybe both.
Like trading.
Yeah, like that.
Is there the actual shares?
Are they tokenized or are they perpetual futures?
That would be my question.
I saw that headline.
I didn't dig into it any further.
I think I saw tokenized.
I don't think it was perps.
I could be wrong.
That just hurt my toe.
Sorry.
Okay.
That actually really hurt.
Yeah, I think it's going to be...
I'll talk more from a perspective.
Coinbase opens stock trading to everyone in the US.
Stock trading is now available on Coinbase to everyone.
Enabling blah, blah, blah.
Coinbase is probably the most important.
Nope, nothing in that headline.
We'll see.
We shall see on that one.
Those are some of the headlines that other headlines
that i saw today there's a lot of a lot of novo nordisk eli lily stock talk glp1s weight loss
area and no no interest for for thy in that conversation i don't hear you talk about it that much.
Mr. Stock Talk.
Sorry, what?
Don't hear me talk about what?
GLP ones.
A lot of Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly.
I'm sure there's some smaller companies that get movement off of it, but yeah.
Yeah, I've thought about Eli Lilly quite a bit.
Really?
Eli Lilly itself or just plays off of it? No, I've thought
about getting calls on Eli Lilly quite a bit.
It's a weird stock talk. Are you okay?
This feels like weird conversations.
You're saying...
We're talking about mega caps here
all of a sudden. It's almost a trillion
dollar company. Yeah, it's weird.
Look, I do...
I want the vast majority of my portfolio in
sub 10 billion market caps you know mid caps but that doesn't mean i don't like look at the large
caps i do sometimes i see opportunities like eli lily is i think some has cemented in the last
several months their position as like the leader um not only in GLP ones, but weight loss drugs in general. I mean, I think GLP two and threes are also in their portfolio, not in Novo's.
So then Novo's had all these random catalysts, the downside, you know, different data that's
come out that's made their product less compelling. But I think Eli Lilly's kind of like cemented themselves
as a leader in that space.
And that is not a category that's going anywhere.
You know, we still have a lot of overweight people,
not only in this country, but globally.
So that category is not going anywhere.
That market's just going to expand more.
The price has probably come down a little bit,
goes more mass market.
Now with the pills, I think that opens up a
Huge opportunity because there's a lot of people that just don't want to inject themselves with these things the pills
I think opens up a huge opportunity
so yeah GLP's are gonna be a
Thing huge thing for a very long time
So I have thought about ways to get exposure and I've always found myself coming back to Eli Lilly
Because there's not really mid cap ways to get exposure, and I've always found myself coming back to Eli Lilly because there's not really mid-cap ways to get exposure to that.
There's not really like – if I want direct exposure to GLP-1s, I can't buy a mid-cap.
There's nothing really there.
I mean, there are small supply chain partners, et cetera, that are indirect beneficiaries.
But, yeah, I've thought about
Eli Lilly a lot too. Um, I thought about a lot of mega caps this year, actually met, uh, Eli Lilly.
Um, uh, I even thought about some of the defense prime contractors, a handful of them earlier in
the year. So I, as much as I talk about, yeah, too big of a market cap for me, I'm usually not interested in names like that.
Sometimes I am.
If I can't find an exposure in a smaller company, then it can be interesting to me.
And so, those are cases, both cases, where that is true.
So, yeah, I think the GLP investment case is very, very strong, very good thesis to be involved in. I just don't
have any exposure currently. And I think Eli Lilly is probably the only one of the only ways I can
get that. So who knows? Maybe I'll have some Eli Lilly calls in the portfolio at some point.
It is interesting to see that it seems like Eli Lilly is the one that's going to be in the most
favor with, you know, either the current administration, the FDA, all of those as well, because you're seeing them cause, I mean, they're winning
the battle.
To one of your points there, they're winning the battle with NVO.
Just their drugs are just better.
Like when you go back and look at the last several releases they've had, NVO is not executing
and Eli Lilly's drugs are doing better in the performance of the ones that are out.
And then you look at like HIMSS, you know, because I always think about,
okay, well, where does – my brain goes to where, you know, small mid-caps,
mid-cap stuff land for Stock Talk, but you look at HIMSS,
and, you know, HIMSS is fighting a massive uphill battle
with trying to do the knockoff version of these.
And it's going to take somebody, you know, basically standing up to the big pharma,
to Eli Lilly and to, you know, basically allow up to the big pharma, to Eli Lilly and to, you know,
basically allow HIMSS to do what they were doing. And from what we've seen, at least the last,
what, three to six months is it's not the case right now, at least. And it may change sometime
in the future, but for now, you know, HIMSS is just getting absolutely smoked, even though they
had decent growth in the subscription model. But these GLP-1s were, what, 60% of their growth last quarter,
and they can't even sell them anymore.
So, yeah, I think all of those factors kind of point back to Eli Lilly, honestly.
Yeah, they've just been winning.
Like, they've just been winning in that category.
And I don't really know.
I mean, Novo can compete.
I'm not saying, like, Novo's dead in the water or anything.
But Novo seems to be having a lot more struggles than Eli is in terms of deploying the products and all the clinical data as well.
So, yeah, I don't know.
Eli Lilly is a hell of a company and you know they have the
market has rewarded them for that i mean it's almost a trillion dollar market cap now but the
market's rewarded them for that i think rightfully so um i don't know if anyone if anyone in the
crowd is invested in eli lily i would say don't fucking sell yeah Yeah, and like you look at Nova Nordisk
and down 75% in the last, what, year and a half at this point.
The headline I saw this morning, they were like cutting their,
was it their Wagovi they were cutting by 50%
because they just can't compete.
Like if they were able to compete as well as they could,
they wouldn't have to cut their prices like this to compete.
And cutting their prices with what's been going on
and losing the battle is usually...
I mean, I don't want to call it a death sentence.
I don't think Nova Nortis is just going to go out of business or anything.
But I feel like it's going to take a lot of work
to turn this ship around, at least maybe some time.
My Eli Lilly cost basis,9 75 you know could be higher it could be lower not so bad though or a little eli lily buyer as a tubby fellow myself i imagine we'll spend some money with
this company at some point in the future. I don't know what the...
When new drugs come out, there's periods where there's going to be no generics around
it. I mean, I'd assume that's something
similar here for GLP-1, so in
certain X point in the future, you'll just
be able to get them generic super easy.
I mean, is that what's going to happen here,
DuckTalk, as you looked into it?
Or is it how all drugs go?
But, I mean... Yeah, I mean, drugs go? I watched a video on it a week ago about India and their generic versions.
Once that happens, it is off to the races.
It's off to the races.
Once you get the generic pill
version of these in the mass market it's just gonna be a phenomenon that just
takes over the world because it's just too much of a hack if you look at the
the predisposition for disease like across all major chronic diseases like
being overweight is like the number one risk factor and so I think it's good for the world
to you know change that dynamic it's going to lead to a lot less disease overall and so I think
there's an incentive behind it a moral incentive a global incentive I think that when prices come
down and you put it into pill version, that just breaks the barrier of resistance.
And I think like everyone who's overweight will be using them at some point, everyone.
And that's a huge market opportunity.
Like it's an unfathomable market opportunity.
So, yeah, I'm a big fan of the GLP
1 investment thesis. I don't
have any exposure, though. So, maybe that'll
change at some point.
Okay.
What an
interesting time to be alive. I didn't
think this time would be happening. We were taking some
earnings plays. That was out of left field.
Adela's suck now. That's kind of
out of left field as Analysts suck now. That's kind of out of left field as well.
Whoa.
Whoa.
Not me.
Not me.
I didn't say complete.
What's not left field?
That's a 180.
I did not say that.
That was not me.
Last February.
When I was hosting the show last February,
we literally had like Analyst Appreciation Month on here with Stock Talk.
They're dead to him.
He's done.
They're done.
Wow. He hates him. No, no so this is this is honestly what happened so i still read analyst reports okay i
actually read them all the time i read i read all of them um you know there are industrials trading at like
40ps there are you know legacy hardware companies and construction trading like 35 36 like
stocks are expensive okay it's also part of the reason why markets are so choppy right now
because yeah if you get a rip-roaring sentiment day you can get stocks to go up but it's hard for
constant bids constant bids trending bids to remain under expensive stocks, right? And this is something that a lot of technical traders,
I mean, most of my friends who are traders
are technical traders.
Most traders, period, are technical traders.
And most of my real life friends
who have been trading for five plus years
or 10 plus years who I've talked to over the period
are technical traders.
But this is something that they miss a
lot too, because they're generally looking at data in a technical vacuum. And so they don't
contextualize what is happening in the other data during bull markets, right? And so in very
aggressive bull markets, the puck tends to move, right, to different themes and industries. And a
lot of times people just write that off as like, that's just what happens in markets.
But the reason that happens is because you get a bunch of thematic interest and hype in a sector.
And then all the multiples expand and the stocks get very expensive.
And so then that money needs to move to another sector where that multiple expansion can happen.
That's the real lifeblood of rotation in markets, is the extension of valuation.
It's not just that people get bored, right?
It's that valuations become extended.
I don't know if anyone remembers that when the quantum stocks were all going crazy,
they eventually had this four-month period where they all either stalled or collapsed.
And during that period, a lot of other speculative themes became hot. I think the one that it traded
hands with at that time was space and satellites. It was like sometime last year, but I remember the
exact month. But I think it was the space and satellite theme that ended up being the beneficiary
of that. But what ends up happening is that liquidity then goes to another theme and people
go, oh, well, you know, somebody came out on the news. That's why that happened. No, it's a product of market exhaustion on a valuation basis as much as it is
on a technical basis. You know, a technical trader will look at a chart and be like, oh, you know,
six monthly gap ups off the nine-month EMA, you know, not a single red week. Like, this stock is
in a parabolic move. The buyers are to, it's the market, it's the
buyers are going to get exhausted, there's going to be some kind of parabolic drop. That's how
a technical trader will look at it. And somebody who's looking at both the technicals and the
fundamentals has much better, in my view, insight into those moments into those inflection points,
because you can look at the chart and say, yeah, it's extended. And then you can say,
oh, my God, every stock in this sector is trading at a 40p. This is coming now. And so it's the fundamental and technical context,
I think, that gives you the ability to read these types of things better. But
to the original point of analysts, the reason why sell-side research gets worse the later you go
into a bull market is a product of the same thing.
Really good sell side research is about an analyst uncovering an opportunity.
Right. And the more expensive stocks get broadly, inherently, the less compelling under underrated opportunities there are like I always laugh for example when people
will point to uh you know a 50p stock and they'll say or 60p stock or whatever and they'll say
you know this stock is under the radar this stock is undiscovered they only say that because either
a they're just looking at the chart and the chart hasn't done much and there's no volume or b they're just looking at the chart and the chart hasn't done much and there's no volume,
or B, they're just looking at their Twitter feed and saying no one's talking about it,
so it's undiscovered.
Both of those are positions that lack context, right?
A stock trading at a 50 or 60p is not undiscovered.
That's just period, end of story.
I don't need to look at the chart to know that because the multiple is expanding right there's a bid underneath that stock like something that'll help people wrap their minds around this if new traders don't get i'm saying
every stock is fully owned okay every stock somebody has the shares. Right. And so when valuations are extended,
if a stock is holding a 60 PE, that means there's somebody that is willing to hold that stock at
that valuation. Right. There's not a willing seller. And so when markets get extended and
stocks in general get expensive, there is less for analysts to do.
And so what ends up coming out is a bunch of bullshit, like a bunch of reiterations on ratings they already put out.
And like, you know, they'll have a stock that'll have a $65 price target on it.
And the stock, let's say, goes down from 50 to 45.
Then they'll come out and reiterate their $65 price target.
You read the report, it's just like the same report that they put out
when the stock was $50.
And the issue with that is it's just not productive
because you're not sharing anything new.
And so you see a lot more reiterations.
You see a lot of sloppy reports.
So what I call sloppy reports is like, you're not covering the company.
The company puts out a good earnings report.
You initiate the stock.
That's lazy to me.
Or if you're covering the company and something bad happens and you downgrade the stock.
Or if you're covering the company and then there's a catalyst and you upgrade the stock
instantly, even if it's a fluffy PR.
Like, that's the kind of stuff you see.
And that's why I haven't – I mean, even in my Discord, I have not covered nearly as much sell-side research, I don't think barely any at all this year, as I did in the last couple of years because it's just of lower quality.
And that is even true when it comes to the big boys.
Like, my favorite shops, like Raymond James. Like, I read read a Raymond James report I can't remember what stock was on like four days ago and
I was like this is fucking lame like it was a lame there was nothing like there's nothing where I was
like reading it and going oh wow like that's really compelling that's really interesting it was just
lame and you know I read a Bank of America report and I was like shrugging my shoulders like come on like and
I don't know so I
Still read them and I'm sure there will be some good reports this year. I'm not gonna say there's gonna be none but like
you know, I don't
It doesn't blow my socks off the way it used to and it it doesn't, like, catch my eye the way that it did in the last couple of years.
And when stocks get cheaper, you know, if, like, this sort of momentum selling continues and stocks get a little cheaper, then the reports will get better.
Because you'll have people calling out the cheapness of those stocks.
You know, one decent report that was out today that ended up moving, I don't one decent report because a lot of a lot of reports today were we're out this morning that
were pretty lame but there was a nice earnings follow-up report that did talk
about some new things on ultra clean clean technologies you see TT which I
think was up like 17% or something today. And it was a Craig Hallam report.
Most of the other guys who came out this morning post earnings put like $75 price targets on it.
But Craig Hallam came out with a really nice report on Ulcercreen.
Where they said their estimates for 2030 for the company are double what the company's internal estimates are.
So I thought that was a pretty bold report. And they made a good argument about wafer growth and operating leverage and
their ability to use operating leverage as a flywheel. And it was a nice report. And, you know,
that ended up, I think, pushing the stock today. And they tripled their price target. They used to
have a $35 price target on it. They raised it to 100. So like, there are some bold reports out there still and they're all right i just think
most of them are on extended stocks that are really hard to make actionable and so that's
kind of why i haven't paid as much attention to them yeah that's fair that makes sense i did see
paul joining us up here how you doing paul Paul? Hey, guys. How are you? How's everything going?
I'm doing well. I am doing well. Sounds like you're outside.
Paul, are you still on I-75?
I'm in a car. I'm not on I-75, but I'm out and about seeing clients.
So I am going from meeting to meeting to meeting.
So I'm headed to my dinner now in Clearwater.
All right. What type of food is that? I am going from meeting to meeting to meeting. So I'm headed to my dinner now in Clearwater.
All right.
What type of food is that?
I think it's an Italian restaurant.
I put it in the GPS.
But again, my guy set these things up for me, and then I just go and meet with the clients.
But I don't know the place.
Thank God for GPS.
Thank God for GPS.
Watch out for autopilot in the near future.
We're just driving it for you.
Oh, my God.
I can't wait. I actually was just having a conversation with somebody in my last meeting about humanoid robotics and about how great it will be when we just have cars just driving us around without even having to pay attention.
I look forward to that day very much.
I am excited for it.
There's an interesting time in the world around AI.
There's some people, Anthropics,
announcing something new every single day.
Some new software part of the world is being disrupted.
We got all these full-stop driving cars.
Waymo launched in a bunch more cities this morning.
I could go back and look,
but there was a couple more there.
It's a very interesting time going on in the world.
We also have CoreWeave flying today.
We'll talk about a specific 2X ETF maybe on that one in a second.
I do want to read out a quick thing.
Obviously, you guys know the Leverage Shares team.
Paul here on his personal account, but he is a part of that Leverage Shares crew.
We have been doing stocks on spaces every single Monday through Thursday, 3 to 5 p.m. Eastern at least for free.
For three, four years now, we love working with people to come on the show in these after hours part and share some thoughts.
Working with very reputable people who bring some different ideas and putting different stuff out there.
Really lucky to be joined by that themes ETFs team.
As you guys are looking into the products, investors should carefully consider a fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses, all of that before investing.
A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the
themes ETFs products. To obtain these prospectuses and key information documents, go to the website
themesetfs.com. I will get it pinned up in the nest above right now there's a tweet with a bunch of the tickers up there but
I will get that change the funds perspectives and key information
documents should be read carefully before investing we are excited to be
working with the themes ETFs team I appreciate you so obviously core weave
was one name that was flying pretty hard today I did in the day of nine ten
percent course CRWG which is thex CoreWeave ETF from you guys,
closed the day at 20% there.
I know that was one that people love trading CoreWeave for some reason.
I guess it's just for days like today because of the way it moves.
But the people, the traders love trading CoreWeave.
But I'm more excited.
I don't know if you have thoughts there.
Maybe if it's in the cloud computing part of it,
but I am excited to talk about humanoid robots.
No, yeah, I mean, we can talk about CoreWeave for a second.
I mean, like when you think about it, you know, it was a high flyer, you know, last year.
And then, you know, it kind of got deflated a little bit.
But like what they do is so essential to this entire AI movement, right?
So do I think like something like CoreWeave with all the investors that they have,
it's going to come back over the long term?
Yeah.
When you see pops like this, it's just people thinking that it's time to rotate in
and perhaps to hit the bottom.
And also perhaps it's around earnings from NVIDIA tomorrow because as everybody knows nvidia has a big
investment in core weave and works with them so perhaps there's something that's going to be
announced there as well so um maybe that's people getting out in front of the nvidia call who knows
but um you know anything that has a core component is is a company around, you know, the build out of data centers like CoreWeave is, you know, if,
if all goes well they should have, you know,
significant amount of growth growth moving into the future.
Humanoid robotics. Yeah. I mean,
I have conversations about human robotics all the time and you know,
autonomous driving being one factor of that. And then obviously,
like, you know, robots for industrial use, for home personal use, so on and so forth. So still
really great return stream year to date. And we love it as a differentiator. You know,
for all these people that bring up noise about, is the eye a bubble over?
How long can it last?
And we get that a ton.
I say if you're looking for a differentiated return stream in technology,
humanoid robotics is a really good place to do that,
especially when you take a look at the criteria that we've set for ITS
because a lot of the exposure is outside of the United States
and South Korea and Hong Kong and China, so on and so forth.
So you're getting a differentiated return stream.
It's a really solid growth trajectory, and we like it a lot.
Yeah, the ETF is up 33% so far in 2026. For anyone wondering, BOTT is the ticker
on that one. It has a lot of international names in some of the US ones when I'm looking at the
top 10 holdings here. And Robin, it can't always be trust. So you go to the website,
that's where you can see the holdings a little better but B O T T stock or ETF is up 33% so far this year I mean so it's not been the easiest
year for everyone too so that's quite impressive largest holdings here US ones there's three year
Teradyn Paladine AI Corp I have never even seen this one p d y n and then nvidia then a lot of it is
international exposure i am on the website right now when i look at country breakdown it is
32 korea 26 china 26 u.s 6 hong kong 4 canada and then you can fill in the rest with other
but again i mean it's just it this is one
of the ones that's just been working so far this year and i'm sure if i look at the one year some
longer time frames as well she's looking pretty hundred yeah it's been working since inception
it's been working since inception i think we're at the early stages again you know i get asked all
the time like how do you guys pick your themes? Well, we look for places in the market that have long-term potential, themes that have long-term
potential, not just for one day or two days or a year or two years. We're not really looking to
build ETS around that. We're looking for ETS that have long term or long term themes or, you know, investment driven into those sectors.
And, you know, we think humanoid robotics is in the very, very early stages of what's going to be transformative for, you know, businesses and personal alike.
So that's why we think this has a lot of room to run long term.
that's why we think this has a lot of room to run long term.
Yeah.
I mean, 33% speaks for itself.
What is exactly like a humanoid robotics ETF look like?
Because humanoid robotics,
humanoids are very,
are a part of what's going on here,
whether it's full self-driving being a part of this,
whether it's different types of robots.
Physical AI seems to be a big conversation here.
Does this ETF capture a very specifically on humanoids itself,
or is it more like physical AI?
No, no, no.
It's not physical AI.
It's more humanoid robotics
and it's all the components
that go into building that.
And I'll claim ignorance here.
Maybe somebody wants to explain
the difference between
humanoid robotics and physical AI.
But, you know, like,
so included in this would be
something like autonomous driving.
So I think I would just need a clearer picture of physical AI Included in this would be something like autonomous driving.
I think I would just need a clearer picture of physical AI in order to understand the question.
To me, humanoid robots, humanoids is like a subset of physical AI.
Maybe it's just we're playing a word game here, which we don't necessarily need to.
Game of semantics.
Yeah, game of semantics.
It's everything through the stack.
I mean, what we wanted to let people know is that this wasn't just about like industrial robotics.
Like it's all encompassing.
So like, yes, does industrial robotics play a role in this?
Absolutely.
Does the software involved in robotics play a role in this?
Absolutely.
Do the chips that play a part in robotics play a role in this? Absolutely. Does the software involved in robotics play a role in this? Absolutely. Do the chips that play a part in robotics play a role in this? Absolutely. And then ultimately the humanoid robotic that's going to be able to do tasks that human beings
do today, but don't want to do, or that are dangerous, that we're going to be able to have
robots do with more precision, taking away some of those like kind of dangerous kind of things that happen.
And like, you know, all in making the world safer.
Like, so when you think about autonomous vehicles, right, like the robot won't take a risk.
The robot won't drive drunk. Right. safer, uh, get you to a destination, uh, um, you know, more efficiently and, and actually even
allows the human that's riding in that car to maybe have a little bit more fun. Maybe he doesn't
have to, you know, worry about drinking and driving. He could just, you know, have a few
drinks with his friends, get in the autonomous vehicle and not worry about getting home.
So like, that's kind of like all encompassing, but it also would include like, you know, a said i think it does encapsulate you know physical
ai uh and um you know humanoid robotics together all in one cool that does make sense i appreciate
that i appreciate that and again i'm looking at the tweet pinned up in the nest above. One of the sectors that I am very interested in, and maybe we talked about it here a little bit, but is definitely being watched a lot, drones being a big part of this. There's a lot of conversations going on here is defense.
ETF NATO.
There's a little bit,
I just find it interesting
because in this ETF here,
there is some China exposure.
There also is a China-based ETF,
DRGN, for anyone who doesn't know,
which is a China-generative AI ETF.
And I feel like this NATO theme
is also a little bit on the,
there can be some conflicts there
at some point,
both literally and hopefully not literally
and other stuff like that.
But I find it interesting.
N-A-T-O, it is one of the most popular tickets that you guys have had.
A lot of interest people digging into it.
We talk about it all the time.
And, you know, one of the interesting things that I get from that is like,
and this has happened since the inception of the fun.
People keep saying to me, did I miss the move?
Did I miss the move?
I think I missed the move.
I think I missed the move.
When do I get in?
When do I get in?
And, you know, look, I don't want to tell anybody where the top is or where the bottom is.
But again, when we design these thematic ETFs, we're looking for long-term growth.
And what I can tell you is there are mandates for European and NATO member countries to build back their own
defense, to take sovereignty of their own defense, and to increase their commitment to NATO. And so
those countries that were below 2% are up to 2% now and will be at 5% of their GDP spend on defense
over the next 10 years.
So there's a significant amount of investment that's going there.
Now, come back from Europe to the United States,
and you have the U.S., which continues to increase spending on defense.
In fact, they just tripled the size of their missile defense technology agreement
with Lockheed Martin just a couple weeks ago.
And so like literally tripled the contract. Why? Because we are reasserting ourselves in the
Western Hemisphere. We want to build a golden dome, you know, in Greenland so that we can
protect ourselves from any attacks that might come from either China or Russia or even Iran.
So this is spend that is happening.
And what I would say to people is, just like anything else, markets go up and down and
nothing goes to the sky.
But if you have high conviction in defense, you don't have to worry about timing it.
It's just something that's going to grow over time because the commitment to
defense spending is there. And in this particular ETF, NATO, it is all companies that are within
NATO member countries. It's a pure play. And it is prime contractors in Europe and in the United
States. And so they get the government checks. And that's what you really need to know about NATO.
Yeah, no, I think that is an interesting one. Again, we talk a lot about the US based ones,
not as much about the European based ones. So I always find it interesting to be able to
learn a little bit more about some of these other ones.
a little bit more about some of these other ones?
In order for the European countries to be self-sufficient,
number one, like I've said, I've said this before,
I sound like a broker record,
but they've got to get up to speed with where the U.S. is
or as close as they can be.
It may never be something that they do,
but in order to do that and to get the best technology,
they're going to have to buy from U.S. companies because they
are the most advanced. The RTXs of the world, the Lockheed Martins of the world, Northrop Grumman of
the world, L3 Harris, so on and so forth. But in order for them to truly be sovereign and to build
capabilities, they have to invest in their own companies too because you don't want to be
dependent upon U.S. companies for your own defense, right? So they're also investing in some great companies,
Rolls-Royce, Safran, Aerobus, Ryan Mattel,
all great European companies that are doing great things.
They're just a little bit behind the U.S. now,
but like over time,
the goal is to get them to build out their capabilities
and be more competitive with the U.S.
One that we talked about on here, we've mentioned a little bit of shit building.
I wonder if that ends up fitting into this conversation.
Yeah, well.
I think Teningale is a part of this portfolio.
I know that that's the lens we talk about through on this space is a lot hii uh stock talk that's one that he's in and watching
um and obviously it's an area that has uh the u.s wants to invest in so it's an interesting part
well they need it right because like that's how they launch attacks so what what is the first
thing they did when they made it when they decided decided that they were going to put pressure on Iran, like they build ships and then they send them out to the Persian Gulf.
And that becomes like the base for attacks.
It's also very intimidating.
You know, when the United States sends out, you know, ships into the Persian Gulf, you know, they mean business.
So essentially building up the naval capabilities is super important.
And again, it's not going to happen from small players.
It's not going to happen from some of the tech-driven players in defense.
All that stuff has to come from the major players that can actually develop, design, and build those ships.
And that's kind of the prime contractors.
That's what's inside of the NATO ETF.
Stock talk, you got any thoughts on that from the defense perspective?
We spent time talking about, obviously, shipbuilding, Huntington Ingalls.
We spent time talking about drones and some of the different ones.
Any other parts of this,
the defense area interesting
for you? Obviously we've talked rare earths.
We've talked a lot of different things and
even the dredging part of it, certain different conversations
center around this theme and
defense. So I imagine
it's a concept you generally agree with.
That was over to you,
Mr. Stock talk.
No worries there.
I think he's,
I think he's reading his analyst reports right now.
You heard the part of it before.
Sometimes it happens.
You get lost in the sauce.
Also,
sometimes X can be weird. So there, there tends to be some problems, but no worries there.
I thought you made great points on the analyst reports because, first of all, everybody's got the information.
So back when I started in this business in my career, you didn't have so much information on the internet.
You couldn't get information.
It was hard to get it, right?
So you have these big morning meetings where all your research analysts would come on the phone or, you know, if you were in New York City, you'd be in a big room and they'd
be going through everything that you needed to know so that you could talk in an educated manner
to your clients, right? And in those particular cases, like those desks and those analysts
were critically important. Now, everybody has the access to like the same information. And so
it's hard to differentiate yourself.
The one thing that I would say is if you find information that everybody's saying is like silly, don't read it, conspiracy theory, like, you know, contrary, like that's where you should read.
You know, make sure you know what everybody's talking about, but then go for the contrarian stuff just to get different opinions.
but then go for the contrarian stuff just to get different opinions.
Yeah, it is important to read everything,
kind of get your knowledge from it.
Don't have your perspective from one side of anything,
any aisle or anything like that.
You want to make sure you're getting educated,
taste from the other side.
I was actually seeing a post say the top three sub stacks right now
are all we could say Doomer ones
So I don't know we'll see
I know this is a training research report
A lot of people have been quoting it
I don't know
It's an interesting time in the world
Doomers are always provocative and people like to
Believe that they know
When the end of the bull market is
And they want to time it
Of all the Doomers and all the people time it and you know of all the doomers
and all the people that write that stuff one guy will be right eventually and they'll all say that
they were right but you know like only three or four guys will be in the movie yeah i won't bet
against this market right now and i won't bet against the growth of america there's too many
like incredibly revolutionary uh types of things that are going
on you know whether it be an ai humanoid robotics crypto um i i just see too many
like high growth areas of the market for this thing to like fall apart now
as people are starting to do their research the tweet pinned up in the nest above a bunch of tickers
down in that space is chat
first thing you'll see when you go down there is the link
to the themes ETS website
obviously we want you guys to be informed investors
our goal is to just put stuff on your radar
so you guys can dig in deeper
and find what's interesting for you
if you guys have questions for Paul
or anyone on the leverage or scenes
I would love to answer them
I would love to get them answered
I would not love to answer them I would love to answer them. I'd love to get them answered. I would not
love to answer them. I would love to ask them so the right people
can answer them. That is the more
proper way to say it. So definitely
feel free to send those questions our
way. I would love to get them.
But yeah, as people are looking into
these ETFs you
have, maybe where's a good place to start?
We were talking about the prospectus, but is there
maybe a little bit more there? If there's anything you'd want them to kind of know? Maybe one that's
interesting for you right now that you're kind of excited about in this market going forward,
anything like that? Yeah. So what I would say is first thing, go to the website, look at the
research that we have, and most importantly, go to the product page for the ETF that you're
interested in and read about the index.
Read about the stock selection.
And obviously, always look at the perspectives to make sure that you understand the risk of the portfolio, so on and so forth.
So that's the first place that I'd start.
We talked about humanoid robotics. I'm very big and very bullish on this theme.
I think it's, like I said, a great investment return stream that's outside of traditional tech.
If you add this to your portfolio, it literally is going to give you exposure to companies that you don't have.
So very little overlap from the portfolios that you have today in tech or in anywhere else.
So I really, really like that.
The second one is obviously transatlantic defense.
Just investment is pouring in.
So you don't have to worry about timing it.
Will there be ups and downs on the market?
Yeah.
If it goes down, dollar cost average into it. The world has a lot going on.
There's a lot of reason for countries all around the globe, including the U.S., to increase their spend on defense. And there's commitments that are being made. So we really, really like that
theme over the long term. You know, I would also I sound like a broken record, but I do practice what I preach here.
I love the globally systemically important banks. I think that's a really excellent place to be.
Regardless of what happens geopolitically, up markets, down markets, higher interest rates,
lower interest rates, they are less sensitive to all those moves in the market. They're deemed globally
systemically important by the Financial Stability Board of Basel III, meaning that if something were
to go wrong, they're great defensive plays because they'll have a backstop by central banks around
the globe that will make sure that they don't fail because they're deemed too big to fail.
But they're also interconnected, most deposits, And they have, you know, so much
of the investment that's being made around all of the various different themes that we talk about
is being, you know, structured by the largest banks in the world. So we really like those
three themes. There's other ones that we like, but, you know, we talk about lots of different
things. So, and I know I'll be back on, we can cover some other themes that we like, but we talk about lots of different things. And I know I'll be back on.
We can cover some other themes that we like next time I'm on.
I promise to give you a full G-Sib.
We'll talk some of the big banks.
I'll get some good banks people on.
We'll talk through that.
The honest truth, banks are super important.
They're a little bit of black boxes for me to actually be able to understand from a stock perspective.
So when I do play them, I mean, this type of product is perfect for me because I would want to play it through an ETF or I'd want to play it through the big dogs, JP Morgan.
I understand the importance, but it seems always like the black box for me.
Seems like one of those companies, the industries that has made for that.
You want to be very knowledgeable to pick individual stocks in
this area which i am not super all right hey guys i really do appreciate the time i'm on a busy
busy schedule today so i have to jump but as always i want to thank you guys for having me on
uh thank you for being a great partner to themes uh etfs and leverage shares we really appreciate
it and i look forward to being on again soon.
I appreciate you, sir.
Thank you for joining us, as always.
Thanks, guys.
Make sure you're following Paul.
Make sure you're checking that tweet pinned up in the nest above down below.
Like he said, great partners of us.
We appreciate working with him.
And, yeah, our goal is to just put interesting stuff on your radar,
allow you guys to ask questions, all of those things.
If it was right for you, great.
If it's not, I hope the time spent on the website looking at the stocks and research that experts put together is at least valuable for you.
All right.
I appreciate everyone.
It's actually fun.
I'm going to leave this space in a second here.
We're going to go start and plan a little weekly competition, a little weekly stock
picking competition using some
of their tickers. So for the Wolf trading
fans, get excited. We're going to try to make it
interactive.
I'm excited.
I hope you guys all have a great day. Had a great day.
I hope you guys will catch us here tomorrow, same time,
same place. Shout out to Paul for
joining us.
Catch you all tomorrow, team. Bye. same place shout out to Paul for joining us catch y'all tomorrow team
bye Thank you.
