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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Aug. 21, 2025 Duration: 1:52:15Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. All right. Hello, hello. What is up, everybody? Welcome over to the stream.
We are getting ready. Another week in another day in the stock market. Sorry,
I had something else going on there. A lot of craziness going on today,
but I hope you guys are all excited for this spaces. My portfolio is red.
There was a small tick up. I got a screenshot of QQQ going red to green for a couple seconds there,
but then it reversed. SPY is down about 0.3%. QQQ is down about 0.4%. So a little bit of red.
When you look over at the heat map for the day, Walmart and Costco
in that area is standing out for sure as some of the big red movers on the day. Walmart down 5%.
This is one of those older head names, doesn't move that aggressively. So 5% is quite the large
day. All the Mag 7 is pretty much red to close to there. It's not there. Healthcare is a sector that's outperforming today, led by Merck and the S&P 500.
Energy's not doing horrible.
A couple different parts.
A couple of the trades that we ended up talking about here.
Lyft was showing a little bit of resilience.
Lyft on the day.
Let's see some of the ones that are working.
Lyft is up 1.4%.
Not bad.
$1580.
We'll see if it can close over that $16 mark tomorrow.
That'd be pretty, pretty nice.
GENI is one that gets talked about on here.
Stock Talk.
That one's up half a percent, a percent.
Kratos up a percentage or two.
SoFi is not doing bad.
Ooh, Penn.
Stock Talk is going to come on here and have some good stuff this day.
The key is Stock Talk.
He's going to come on and watch.
He's going to be like, guys, 15 out of 16 names are green today you know it's red it's a
great day what more could you ask for a stock picker watch that's exactly what he's going to
come on and say and for options mike he's going to tell us pretty much what he took out the gate
let me guess um you what looks good out of Nothing, honestly. You're going to tell me you took nothing out of the gate.
That pullback, that launch up around maybe 10, 1030.
Maybe you were in Tesla there.
Did you trade Tesla or NVIDIA to the upside?
How was your day today, Mike?
For me, I was pretty quiet here today, Evan.
Yeah, I took nothing out of the gate today. I felt the market was going to be very quiet today. And in general, it has. It's been a very whippy day. If you look at the five minute chart, we've been just big candles. You get all over the place and then they get to immediately undo it. So, you know, you either have to be positioned for the move here or you just had to let it go.
you just had to let it go I only did two trays today I think let me check my rock
log here I traded I did you know I tried it in video first and video there was a
lot of flow on it early on a lot of call buying that one didn't work took a small
loss on it and then I did get into Tesla and took a nice little winner on that
one and yeah that's really all I've done today exactly what time I got into
that my guess is you would have entered at 10 9 47 and 20 seconds 9 47 and 20
seconds so there you go and outside of that I haven't done a heck of a lot here
today the markets been a little funky for me.
We have Powell tomorrow, and I think this market just is, at this point,
just going to wait for Powell and hear what he has to say.
And I don't know.
I don't know what to expect tomorrow.
He speaks at 10 o'clock.
speaks at 10 o'clock. He may release his speech early. He may not. You never know.
He may release his speech early.
He may not.
You never know.
But the market certainly wants to hear rate cuts, rate cuts, rate cuts, or some hint that we're
getting a rate cut. I think if we don't get anything like that, the market is not going
to be very happy with Mr. Jerome Powell there and the Fed. You have Bondi calling for Powell to fire Cook today. I mean, this whole situation of the Fed
right now really is just a mess. And, you know, the tone of his speech tomorrow and how he addresses
some of this, if he addresses it, it'll be interesting. I'm pretty sure there's no question
and answer. This is just, you know, his annual speech here. You know, to your point, you said
some names are still holding in. Hood had a nice
bounce back day. Hood is just off the highs of the day. MP just popped on news that Trump wants
to allocate, reallocate 2 billion in chips funding to minerals. Tem had a nice day. I didn't trade it.
The IWM is highs of the day. You know, so it's just been a very, very kind of weird day. You mentioned energy was up again.
A little bit of rotation.
You know, I'm wondering, you know, energy's up maybe because it looks like, you know, the war in Ukraine is not even close to ending.
It doesn't look like anything's going to happen.
Trump is now going to give Putin another two weeks.
I think that's what he said today.
So there's no pressure to do anything.
And so, you know, the market will just continue to go its own way here.
Still long, my long-term stuff, still long on Amazon.
Some IBIT.
I just have a little bit of snow in there with some spies and pews.
And, you know, I really would like to see a little bit of a deeper pullback here.
I'm just not sure we're going to get it.
You know, I would love a dip down to that 50-day.
I think that would be a real nice entrance.
I appreciate you, Mike. Let's rapid fire through a little bit here at the start,
and then we'll talk back on some of the topics here.
Thank you, Mike.
Let's go over to StockSniper.
Sniper, what are you watching today?
What do you want to throw in quickly?
StockSniper no worries truthfully we don't go normally go to him this early so that is
fair Brett how are you doing today sir I'm doing good how are you I am doing
doing fantastic it's been an interesting day in the market you know we could be
doing better but for the market at least I'm doing well though. I hope you're doing great. What are you
watching in this market? Obviously Powell is coming up tomorrow. I know you kind of are also
watching the macro front. What's catching your radar right now? Yeah. I mean, regarding Powell
tomorrow, I mean, I do kind of think that's a big event just in the sense of, I mean, this week's kind of quiet outside of some of the retail earnings.
So, you know, it's one of those weeks where we don't have a lot going on.
It's probably a good thing.
And we're kind of in this like mild little pullback so far.
What is this?
The sixth day in a row, fifth day in a row for the NASDAQ anyhow. So it's like we're kind of seeing some de-risking into that, I think, which in my mind, I always
like when stocks do that.
I don't like when they rally relentlessly into an earnings print or a bigger picture,
like the spies rally relentlessly into a big jobs report or a big Fed meeting.
It just sets the expectations
so much more differently than if it pulls back into it. So I like that we're dipping into it.
It doesn't mean we'll be up tomorrow, but it's going to really depend on his tone and what he
has to say. Like last year, you know, Powell usually plays things pretty close. He doesn't
really go out on a limb very often in terms of like telegraphing what the Fed's going to do ahead of time.
I think last year was a little bit of a unique situation where, you know, when we got the July print, there was it was like two days like the July jobs print was like two days after the Fed meeting and everyone.
And it was it was not a good print.
So the argument was that the Fed should have cut already, kind of use Jackson Hole as an opportunity to telegraph that cut in September. I don't know that we really, I don't really think
we'll get the same level of transparency this time around, if only because inflation and the
jobs market are kind of both moving in the wrong direction for the Fed. So, I mean, push comes to
shove. I think they do favor the labor market, but I don't know that he'll be as transparent as he was last time around. But I guess we'll find out
tomorrow. We'll see how the market handles that. And I didn't catch all of Mike's comments at the
top, but I caught his comments at the end. And I echo the same sort of sentiment. I do think a
larger pullback from here would be nice, even if we do have a bounce first and a further pull.
September is kind of a tough month, just seasonality-wise.
But yeah, I would love something in that 4% to 7% pullback range.
I think that would just give a nice opportunity to sort of refresh the rally we've had.
Nice. Appreciate you, Brett. Feel free to jump in on the conversation we are having let's go over
to spartan spartan how are you doing today i am oh oh can you guys hear me i think you should be
able to yeah yeah we got you yeah good okay yeah i'm good man um so you know obviously everyone's
waiting for tomorrow so i think you know gonna be a little bit on the muted side.
A lot of call activity on the Chinese names today.
Been in PDD, nice little weekly and range break to the upside.
Keep an eye on this NIO, ton of call activity there.
So I've been watching that.
I'll watch some of the bigger ones as well, Baba Baidu, in the short term.
But, you know, I think that's an interesting thing that's kind of been occurring.
This BLSH been in this one all day, nice relative strength. I'm thinking that you may get some
really nice opportunities in the short term. Obviously, if we push up tomorrow, I really
like to send the conductors back to the upside. I like some of these names that got hit, you know,
for instance, like PLTR, hold back, extended, still into its 50 EMA on the daily. I think it
can come off that
level, get a nice little continuation push. UNH should be one I'd be watching as well for
continuation from last week. We ended up getting really lucky on that with some 280s and 300s
going into that kind of release of who was in that name on the investment side. So that's been
pretty sweet. What I've found is in this market, in this tape, I've gotten lucky a lot of the times
with names off the lows with good valuation. Once they start to curl up and EMAs cross to the
upside and you have really nice risk rewards, you're getting a lot of basically news or some
sort of catalyst behind them. That's happened to me like four or five times in the last month and
a half. So clearly a pattern there. Everyone's kind of bottom fishing for that valuation and
things that can outperform going into the end of the year i'm thinking you know september you know
kind of my macro thoughts for the year i guess the rest of the year if you know whatever the
hell they do in september if they cut rates i think it's actually gonna be a bearish for
you know things in the market market's gonna come in a little bit for about a month and a half that
i think into the end of the year we do rally but uh you know we always need something forward looking so you know once we get that i think you know we'll see
a little bit of weakness i've been saying that for like two months um we haven't seen obviously
them cut in or do anything yet but you know that's just i think it's going to be the day that
we do and then the next couple weeks after that you start to see some you know money come off
profit taking blah blah blah and then it will kind of turn later on.
You know, the last, I think it was, I was looking at statistics.
The last four Jackson holes, I think the next like seven days,
we've sold off like four to the five years, about, I think like three to 5%
around those ranges.
So, I mean, that's kind of been the pattern going forward.
We'll see what
this one kind of brings but you know i'm waiting for the most part i think there is some nice risk
award trades off the lows you got these random outliers like these chinese names that are strong
today some strong big caps i saw a lot of small cap action today that market seems to be okay
from that standpoint i think the market in general is good um but yeah we just gotta wait
to see how kind of tomorrow goes i think you just play these little um you know these pullbacks mostly being very
shallow and i think that's going to continue unless we get something out of left field but uh
yeah i think i think it's kind of you know right now waiting game for tomorrow and then go after
the names with good relative strength and risk reward and those should keep you out of trouble
in the short term.
All right.
Thank you, sir.
I'm taking notes for when we circle back.
And by the way, if there are any topics, stocks, anything like that you guys want us to double down on, double click on,
I will bring them back up.
Just throw them in that purple 7 in the bottom right of your screen
and I will look at them, take some notes,
and we will let that guide today's conversation.
So, yeah, definitely throw some of your thoughts down there.
Appreciate you, Spartan.
Let's go over to Sam next.
Sam, give me the one, two minutes here.
Start us off.
What's catching your eye today?
What are you most excited about?
I was over to Mr. sam there we go hello there we go now we got you that that was so weird it wouldn't let me unmute it i don't know i think i had like an x upgrade recently but i mean kind
of agree with spartner on that one like everyone's been calling for this pullback that's supposed to
be coming for quite some time.
I mean, one thing that we've noticed is that a lot of growth stocks' momentum has slowed down pretty dramatically.
I mean, one of my top holdings, Robinhood, it keeps on flirting with that all-time high,
but keeps pulling back and everything, getting support at the $100 level.
Not necessarily looking to add any size to those larger positions
unless we get a more dramatic pullback.
I mean, we've seen some weakness actually in other sectors.
And I would attribute it more to rotation, like what I was saying yesterday.
We've seen a lot of money rotate out of tech, specifically XLC, the communication sector,
which is basically Google and Meta.
Meta is pulling back from its all-time high.
We saw Apple, NVIDIA, and Microsoft Next OK, giving a little pullback. Amazon, Tesla pullback.
And then we saw a rotation into more defensive companies, more healthcare that's been lacking
for quite some time, more, again, with the financials. We're seeing a bit more in the
bidding also with extremely high beta speculative stocks, like some of the bitcoin miners those are finding a little bit of a bid uh i haven't checked the other i haven't checked the other um solar
stocks but i did see csiq reported earnings this morning with a massive miss uh they're down about
17 i'm not partaking in the solar stock uh personally it might be a short covering whatever
it is but maybe i'll come back i'm not really sure i'm more on the fundamental level for trying to follow secular trends and i think there are a lot
of uh good companies in the uh fintech sector that are trading at a pretty decent valuations
actually for for companies that are something that are pretty profitable growing at double
digits like i'm seeing names like mercado libre is at a pretty good value right now maybe a little
bit most expensive but
it deserves the most premium out of all of them with Mercado Pago as like their second their
second business basically the Amazon of Latin America for the most part with Mercado Pago
and then you have Grab Holdings which is still at a good valuation you have C Limited even
after it's crazy run after earnings which were really good it still is at a decent valuation I
think that stock is pretty early in the game and then you also have uh domestic brands you have for a shift four which um i mean everyone
really knows that jared isaac man is no longer to be the representative for nasa so you know his game
is kind of open there and he did uh double down his position i don't know exactly how much but
as a significant position he added in the 80s it's still trading like around the low 90s right now and then you have toast which is something that i'm looking to add doing more
research on haven't started a position yet i really should if anything um john is actually
i think he's listening to crowd but he he this is i think this is like four or five percent of his uh
of his aotg portfolio and he's up pretty nicely on that one and i think this is a pretty decent
pullback to get in you know know, from a long term perspective.
But for me, I like to have my winners that I want to add to or my companies that I want to possibly invest in ready for when we do get that pullback.
It's just I would buy toast right now, but I just feel like the macro of the market and all the signals that I'm seeing is that we are possibly going to be getting a pullback.
If we don't, that's cool.
I'll probably continue to add slowly. But, you know But I guess I'm just a little greedy. I want a
good price. I want to feel like I'm getting a Trump discount on something. Besides that,
Mark is just waiting for tomorrow. They're waiting for Jackson Hole. I saw the picture of Powell
getting off the airplane yesterday that someone caught him in the airport. I don't know why
they're flying that guy commercial. And you're spending $2 billion renovations in a building, and then you get to fly a commercial.
I don't know if he flew Spirit or not, but he looked miserable, man.
I don't think he's looking forward to this.
But anyways, he's going to be speaking tomorrow.
We're going to see what happens.
There's some notes coming out from some of the Fed speakers out this morning.
Hammock, she was basically saying that we don't need rate cuts and so on.
We're starting to get some reports here that the economy is a lot better than expected.
Employment, the initial jobs claims did miss slightly this morning, but nothing that really,
I don't think the market really care about something like that.
We need a dramatic miss.
But overall, it doesn't look like anything crazy is going to happen, but we've seen that
reflected in the market where everything's just been moving sideways from an index level. But under the hood, you see a lot of rotation
happening and a lot of narratives and themes catching big bids. So I think it's time for a
pullback. I think this market just can't go straight up. But hey, I mean, I'm 90%, 92%
investor right now. And if it continues to go up, I'm all for it. I'm cool. I'm still going to be making money at the end of the day. And I will always find something to buy if
anything. But if I got something, I want to set my sights on, I did add a little bit to my new
bank position yesterday. And I am, I feel like I should just do it. I think I should just start
buying to toast. Like I just feel like I don't need any more convincing anymore. But you know,
I mean, with the way that things are happening, everyone's waiting for NVIDIA.
Earnings are mostly over for the most part with software starting next week, actually.
I guess it's just more the sit and wait.
I mean, as a more longer time frame investor, patience is really all you need to do.
You know, you don't need to make moves every day, trade every day if you're more looking
at the long term perspective.
Traders, obviously a much different story.
But, you know, long term investors, the hardest part of this whole game is the waiting. Anyone can really make money in
any ways whatsoever, but waiting for the compounding effect from a long-term perspective, that is hard.
People itching to buy positions, get out of positions, and so on reflect to FUD they see on
Twitter or people making 10%, 20% of trade or whatever. But if you're in the long-term game,
more of a long-term mindset, like just chill, right?
Like you don't need to be making moves every single day.
And for the most part, that's what I've been doing.
I haven't really been making any moves.
I'm just keeping my head down,
keeping an eye on the trends of the market,
doing research in the companies that I like,
following up, you know, just, I guess,
killing time until we do get some good buys.
killing time until we do get some good buys.
Yo, Sam, those are really good points.
I was listening to a podcast today, and it was the Morgan Stanley people,
and they were pounding the table on Monday, which I don't own it,
but I was like, huh, they really were bullish on it.
I don't know if you had any thoughts on Monday.
Oh, mond Monday.com.
For some reason, I thought you were talking about money.
I was like, what happened last Monday?
I remember that last Monday.
But Monday.com, well, my thing about Monday.com is that they're a much smaller CRM player,
especially when it comes to project management solution.
They mostly focus on SMB.
And the thing is,
when you compare this side-by-side with other companies
that focus on SMB,
Confluent, Sentinel-1, GitLab, and so on,
GitLab obviously has a lot of enterprise exposure,
but it leaves a little bit of volatility
in terms of their forward-looking growth aspects
as well as their net retention rate.
Because when you have these small businesses,
like they don't have like 100,000 or 150,000
or even a million dollar ACV, right?
They could just cut their contract
and move on to something else like Salesforce or whatever,
but they're just going to smaller player
because one is cheaper compared to other solutions.
But also the smaller players do offer
a little
bit more customized solution and catering to the customer versus like snowflakes like hey this is
all we got i mean if you want us to customize this for you you're gonna have to pay up the nose for
it right so uh smaller players they're a little more at risk because what if you do get a recession
there's a lot more risk tied with that but also monday has been on quite a run so things tend to
swing from one pendulum to the other, especially when it comes to
software, but for the most part, a lot of software stocks that pull back.
Monday is a profitable business.
You know, they're doing great in terms of their growth.
I think they're on a pretty good secular trend, but the problem here is, and we've
talked about this investing with the boys is the AI cannibalism from just AI
essentially replacing software software which is not
going to happen in the next year or two by any means but it might happen over time but maybe
the market's sniffing this out and maybe that's the reason why datadog's been pulling back maybe
that's the reason why a lot of software companies have been pulling back not just monday but other
companies as well like klaviyo and so on but mostly the ones that smoke focus on small businesses
because they are at risk like when
you have these when you have to take something like crowd strike they have like million dollar
contracts acv with these with these multi with this fortune 500 enterprises and it's not easy
for them just to switch out and it's very likely we crash like rest of breed like no one's really
going to switch out of them right it doesn't really make sense to you but you take like a
smaller player like monday.com like well they could build a company could build something in-house and then
they don't need to pay a hundred thousand dollars a year to money.com for a contract. Or maybe
they'll figure out a different solution that they could bundle with like with CRM or Salesforce or
something, you know, and they'll just do that, you know, and the same is at risk for other companies
that also have open source products. Like that's just generally the fear that you're getting. But
the fear usually happens when the companies pull back.
That's when it happens.
Because otherwise, no one was talking about this when Monday.com was above $300 a share
just like a few months ago.
So something to keep in mind.
But I'm pretty bullish on Monday.
I don't think it's something that I want to include in my portfolio.
Any thoughts on Remintly?
You know, you did tell me to look into that. I have not looked into that lately. When it comes
to the payment processing, I already have some exposure to that. But if I were to look at something
like that, I'd really want to dig in.
I really want to see some asymmetric risk reward.
I'd want to know the sector that it's in,
its competitors and all that stuff.
But I have not looked into that yet.
I apologize.
Yeah.
John, what are some of the names
that you're looking at, though?
Give me one or two names
that we can throw it around the panel.
Sam and I have been passing research
reports back and forth. So I was interested to see, you know, we haven't, I haven't talked to
Sam since, but I was wondering if he gleaned anything from the same stuff I was reading.
So I'm kind of interested if Sam, you know, has some new insights there from what he read and,
you know, maybe had some different takeaways from me. But I mean, I was surprised. There was this research report where they were looking at interns and they were asking
them what products they use. And I was surprised to see PayPal was falling off a cliff. And I was
like, oh God, this is worse than I suspected because you see that there's not much growth
in the earnings, which I think is a problem. They're still growing their earnings per share, but their revenue is kind of halted.
But when I saw that the usage is really quickly declining amongst young people, that was something I was a little worried about.
On the buy side, I think NASDAQ is a software business, and they're also an exchange business.
I think that they are showing 100% year-over-year earnings per share growth.
I think that they're developing agentic AI to fight financial crime, which I think has the potential to be a huge revenue driver.
But they're funding their development of these products with just the cold hard cash of their exchanges, extremely profitable, and everybody wants to list from all across the world on the NASDAQ.
So, and they're decreasing their expenses at the same time year over year.
So, I think there's a lot of bullishness there.
Sam and I both like digital oceans, a digital ocean.
I mean, it has a price to sales of three, you know.
Like, these are businesses you normally see are, like, price to sales of three, you know, like these are businesses you normally see are like it price sales at 10. So I think it could be as much as like, you know, even if it rallied by two
exits still might be undervalued. And, uh, you know, Sam's probably going to want to elaborate
that on that more, but another big one is app loving is just bringing the cold, hard cash,
right? Like their earnings growth is 113% year over year they're growing like crazy and
they're controlling their expenses like no other big tech company and you know this company is
actually becoming pretty big a lot of people haven't heard of it but it's one of the brightest
names in the whole software sector so very much like applovin also yeah to comment on applovin
i think it's seeing a bit of a bid and elevated compared to trade desk um we actually we're talking about
the trade desk a little bit on last night's episode of uh investing with the boys and
actually we were live in that one but what we were discussing is that the trade desk issue
was mostly a trade desk problem i don't think there's really anything necessarily wrong with
the ad tech industry but even though trade desk did they pretty much changed the ad tech game it's
a full-fledged ad play company and app loving,
which is what we were talking about. And we're both,
we're both long on that company. And I would be happy to add that company,
but we did see a decent pullback.
We actually got a pretty good pullback based on the short reports that came
out from like four different short companies.
And one of them was money waters. And that's the one that really took it down.
But sometimes when you have these players that run so much people just don't believe
how wide these margins can expand yes of course a lot of it's on an adjusted basis but when
you really take out all the high expenses it comes with SBC and so on with software companies
which is just a given software companies need the best talent so they need to pay the engineers
to retain that talent but also Apple's ad tech business just keeps accelerating and that that that is the that
is the forefront along with that you're also seeing meta's ad tech business also doing really
well you see google's doing good too you saw reddits as well i mean even though those three
or two walled gardens three walled gardens it still does say something for the entire sector
and then magnite as well
but then you look at trade deaths it doesn't it worried me before it does not worry me anymore
when it comes to that sector but i feel like i do have my exposure on it i would love to add to it
if anything and then you're mentioning digital ocean again another small smb player but um
i agree with you i i think i think it's a bit mispriced in the fact that it's not directly offering an open source product to customers. It's offering infrastructure as a services. Basically, a lot of cloud solutions that larger enterprises I would kind of target them as acquisition targets.
Now, if we look back at other software companies
that were acquired previously,
like we have Splunk.
Actually, that was less of a smaller company,
but they were acquired.
Then we had New Relic that went into private as well.
That was a much smaller company in the modern solution.
And then we had HashiCorp.
I think it was earlier this year,
they just got acquired by ibm when these when these companies get pulled back this far to pretty cheap valuations
that's usually when the big dogs start start to scoop them up start to really look at evaluation
don't mind paying that premium on the existing price in the open market because git lab was just
trading at 80 over i think it was like 12 times EV NTM after their earnings.
And of course it fades like always, you know, that just,
I've been investing in GitLab since 2020, early 2023.
And that's just how it happens all the time.
And I'm cool buying more over here.
I already have my size the way they want,
but I think the problem is with some of these smaller companies is that if
they offer an open source product, the market just has a hard time letting them keep that premium.
But if they offer like a solution that isn't necessarily open source, that's cloud native as part of a secular trend like DigitalOcean, I'm confused why it is selling this low even after the earnings report.
So I see it as an opportunity to add to it.
I have added to the position.
I don't know if I want to add to it anymore because I just want to see some sort of weakness in the market. It's kind of unrealistic to have the market rally so hard. I'm not going to sit here begging and hoping for that I think are trading at great valuations will not experience a much more pullback because the stock can go much lower than people expect.
So who knows?
If anything, I think it's good to have an ample cash position from a long-term perspective.
And you had to keep doing more research in the companies.
I mean, there's some good deals that are out there, but just something just really tells me that just being patient is going
to pay off this time around.
I see we got StockSniper up here now.
Mr. Sniper, do we have you this time?
Yeah, could I get a mic check?
Yep, we got you.
Why don't you add some thoughts in on what you're watching today?
Give us a minute or two, and I don't know if you have any thoughts in the conversation.
Yeah, well, I got to say that my top trade, I took a couple of trades today. I had some nice spy day trades. I could get into that another time. But the thing that I would like to talk about the most right now and what is honestly occupying my mind the most is Roblox.
honestly occupying my mind the most is Roblox. I decided to open a short position on Roblox this
morning. I'm inside of the $114 put for September 5th. I personally think that I like the short
considering it's under the 50 day. It's right there. When I take a look at the daily, it does
look pretty bearish to me. And I really think that the sentiment that we're seeing around Roblox has
been absolutely terrible. I don't really want to get into
it but I'm sure many of you guys have read the accusations and I personally
think that that's just could be detrimental for this company if the
wrong information comes out at any point aside from that I took a look at the AI
that I like to use sometimes for trading, which is Prospero AI.
And, you know, I'm taking a look at Roblox on the long term and they're rating them only at a 17 on profitability.
This is an awful rating and this tells us that they do not see a strong financial performance,
or at least the AI does not see that for the long term future of Roblox.
And then when I take a look at the short term and, you know, similar towards what I was touching on before,
you know, about the terrible things that everybody's saying about this company right now we can look at the net social which will measure pretty much just about everything everyone's talking about on the internet
and the net social is down to 22 this tells us that you know there's just terrible sentiment in
the air right now for this name and it's honestly not looking great I personally think that I like
this short I'm targeting 112 13 on this short. I'm targeting 112.13 on this short,
and I'm going to be swinging these Roblox puts overnight.
But that is, just in a nutshell, a majority of my day,
and honestly, what is the most exciting thing
in StockSnap is trading day.
Backcock, do we have you up here?
You do.
You want to take a look at the Roblox chart for me?
For all of us?
Give some initial thoughts.
Roblox, the group stock now?
No, his stock stamp is bearish.
He actually has some puts on it.
Interesting.
So the anti of that.
Please tell me you're not a Roblox bull, dude.
No, he's not, but we're just going to look at the chart.
I think it's a stupid company.
Coming down into the
50-day today, second
test. I mean, yeah, it breaks
the 50-day here. It'll make a great short.
I don't know if it is. I mean, I don't know enough
about what's going on with the story right now, but
found support of the nine-week EMA
this week, found support of the 50-day.
That tends to be a pretty strong cluster of support.
So, yeah, one negative catalyst.
You can break right through that line.
Definitely see some downside on this one.
I mean, I won't say the chart's bearish, because it's not yet.
But if it breaks that 50-day, it can be.
You can see a big unwind.
But for now, it's holding support.
Wow, I do see that.
There's a lot of charts on the 50-day.
That's the only thing that makes me at the edge of my seat right now,
like teetering a breakdown and just six-day recovery yesterday.
So really keep an eye on this action right now because once that breaks,
I don't know what's going to happen after that.
The market's waiting for a catalyst and that catalyst is tomorrow there's a lot of stocks at big technical inflection points going into this
event as they usually are headed into these binary events what's up wolfie yeah um i have a short
position on that name as well i've had it for about a week now. He glossed over the accusation, but basically
there's like improprieties and child predatory behaviors on the app, as well as grooming and
whatnot. We don't have to get into the full extent of the details, but Chris Hansen's actually
doing a report. He confirmed on Twitter that he's doing a report and he's going to have a docu-series on some of these accusations.
There's also been a situation where they had a whistleblower,
excuse me, where a child came out with a whistleblower and said,
hey, I was victim of some of these things and brought it to management,
brought it to the company, the company de-platformed him because it went viral on
Twitter or on TikTok, excuse me. So there's quite a bit there. You know, with valuation where it's
at, it doesn't take much from, you know, a parenting perspective or much from a user perspective for it
to really get blown out the other thing is if
you take a look you guys were looking at the 50-day if you just take a look at the chart
uh this is like a very similar setup to palantir not you know double top or any of that stuff but
whenever you get these short-term moving averages or mid-term moving averages they just get so
blown out from you know longer- term moving averages. It doesn't
really take much once the selling starts for it to keep going. So right now it's at the 50 day,
but it's about 20% higher from, you know, the 100 day. And then, you know, I guess like 40%
from the 200 day. So it's not really, it's not really um it's not really ideal for anything outside of just
like momentum currently so who knows who knows if it'll stick save it could it could very well
stick save and then mark could be fine pal could be fine everything moves on but it's not something
you have to go out and get right right if you were looking to short it not something to go
short right away um but i do think it's one of those names
that if and when things start to break,
this will be kind of like a waterfall
and we'll have a conversation about it
like we did Palantir in the last few days.
Yeah, I just want to say, Wolfie,
Stock Talk for the record,
I absolutely hate Roblox
and I will be looking forward to this conversation
that we have one day.
I think Roblox at $80 billion is just stupid.
I got to be honest.
Also, I just, I don't hate games.
I think Minecraft's one of the best games ever made.
You know, it's not any kind of bias there.
I just think $80 billion for this company is crazy.
This reminds me of Peloton three years ago.
Can you guys imagine that Palo Tom tomorrow just doesn't talk monetary policy just completely
glosses over it i don't know if the market's going to know what to do
yeah i feel like they'd sell it i feel like they'd sell it i don't think it's going to happen
tomorrow i think it's going to happen after the fact like it usually does right like you have
your massive chop in both directions and ends up closing somewhere in your flat and everyone gives up and then that's
what happens after that like sam were you were you around three years ago when he did the jackson
hole speech in 2022 that was a much different time dude like i i feel like that was that was
a way different time he was they were in the middle of a hike cycle, right? And inflation was almost through the
double handles. I think it actually was like around 10%, 9% in the June one. But it's a much
different scenario. I think that we might get some turbulence, but I think a lot of that is
going to factor into rotation. So maybe the indices might not fall as much. But under the hood,
I think tech is, I'm not going to say gets slaughtered,
but I think you're going to see some bear markets and some major growth stocks
if that does happen.
Just speculation.
I'm not trying to short anything, right?
I don't know.
To be honest, that Roblox short sounds pretty convincing.
I'm not going to lie.
But to be honest, dude, I want to pull back, not because I want to see blood
and not because I'm trying not to lose money.
I want to pull back because I'm going to buy some stocks, man.
I got some cash over here i know i'm just saying it from i feel like stuff's a little similar where you know the market in 2022 we
rallied 20 into jackson hole basically and then they were optimistic about cuts uh or about the
tightening kind of loosening up a little bit.
And I feel like we're kind of there now where people are kind of being,
being a little up too optimistic about how many rate cuts are going to
happen.
And in real time,
we go from 97% probability for September,
I think 71 today in a matter of like three days.
Yeah,
that was insane.
So we're getting like the rear rating in,
in real time.
So I don't know if,
I don't know if he's going to say anything material.
I'm not, not saying that, but
I do feel like
the optimism
around things
based on the delta between the optimism
last week and this week
reminds me of that time period.
Before they actually meet for the
vote, we do have a lot of data left.
We have a jobs report. We have a PC,
a PPI, and a pc a piece a ppi
and a cpi i think all those come in before the next meeting i also think the fed's in a little
bit of a rough spot here i mean you have inflation showed its head a little bit again right we'll see
how far that goes you have possibly a weakening economy under the covers i'm sure they're not you
know and then you have the whole political piece of it which you, you know, which is just making this even less here.
It's tough. I think they're in a real tough spot here for what they do.
Yeah, I mean, the Fed's going to take whatever the market is done, right?
So like what we were saying, they were 25% to rate cuts before that PPI report came out.
And, you know, we'll see what happens as more data comes out
and they're going to continue to price it in
based on the Fed's fund futures
and they're going to take whatever the market gives it.
So it's not going to go into the meeting at 50-50.
That rarely happens.
The market usually knows where it's going to be
in at least a couple of days before the meeting.
The one that we all got blindsided on
was during the September meeting
in 2024, where all of a sudden, I didn't know where they just priced two rate cuts. And then
the Fed took it. They don't want to spook the market, so they're going to take whatever the
market's priced in. What we have seen was that, like we were saying, they went from 25% chance
of two rate cuts and pretty much 0% chance of pause. And the market had to unprice that out.
And that's the turbulence we're seeing right now
is the unpricing.
So if there's any hints,
which I don't think we're going to get,
if there's any hint that they will not hike
or if we start to see that unpricing,
I'm sorry, that they won't cut.
If you start to see that unpricing,
as we get closer,
that is where the pullback is probably going to happen.
But until that happens,
I don't think we're going to see a dramatic drop.
There has to be a catalyst.
I don't think that catalyst is going to happen tomorrow.
But I think it's probably going to happen
when people at least expect it.
And that's rightfully so.
If you ask my opinion as far as sentiment goes on Twitter,
dude, it looks like everyone's ready
for this pullback to happen.
I mean, holy crap.
Half the people aren't ready for that to happen.
That's usually when it doesn't happen,
but then something happens when people think the coast is clear.
You know,
I want to say I commented below a Tom Lee chart that he had of like what the
rest of the year could look like tagging Dan Niles was like,
Hey,
is this,
are we kind of seeing that,
that Q4 pullback that you were talking about earlier?
And he was like, no, I don't think this is it.
I'm positioned for it to go higher.
NVIDIA will kind of re-accelerate us there.
That kind of pullback that I was seeing,
I still expect it to come, just not yet.
So, no, it's but...
Yeah.
Yeah, that Tom Lee tracker count's really cool, man.
Everyone check out that Tom Lee tracker. Yeah, everyone check out that tom lee tracker yeah everyone check out that tom lee tracker that's a good one i i thought it was really cool the
arc daily one and they got the tom lee one i was like oh that's gonna be a good one too i'm gonna
follow this thing right here but yeah i was kind of surprised about that i i didn't expect um well
everyone's obviously balls of the wall bullish until certain point. I didn't see that coming.
I didn't see a pretty decent pullback coming,
but it'll look like all-time highs by the end of the year,
which I do kind of agree on that set.
So for the record, though,
they do have basically talking points
for every Jackson Hole meeting.
And this time around, it's labor markets in transition,
demographics, productivity, and macroeconomic policy.
So, you know...
Say that again? Labor markets in transition?
Labor markets in transition, demographics, productivity,
and macroeconomic policy.
So, you know, if he decides to tie in the labor market aspect, like watching the labor market and maybe hint at some of these revisions, then maybe you have it.
But, you know, to talk about what what Mike was mentioning earlier, it'd be funny he doesn't talk about the cuts or about the hikes or whatever.
You know, there's a chance that he doesn't speak to it specifically.
But the avenue for it would be whether or not
he mentions some of these revisions
or some of these job data that could
be supportive of taking some sort of action.
And I'm going to give a hat tip to Monitive
for giving me the category or the the agenda excuse
me yeah that is interesting we just got a uh nvidia event here from monday they announced
the unboxing of robotic related products on monday that should be interesting to see what
they come out and see how tesla reacts to that listen all I'm gonna say is that post was two hours old stock market news
posted we had a couple accounts going but it is good news I wonder what it is I
don't think it's an event I think it might just be a release that they have
coming up it's an announcement of some type I think yeah not it not a full-on
like display then I agree.
We shall see.
We shall see.
Interesting times.
Wolfie, we also haven't heard any more thoughts that you have.
You've chimed in on some of the conversations so far,
but was there anything?
Did you just talk about Walmart? Any other ones?
We did not talk about Walmart yet.
This is a company that's down 5% today.
The numbers weren't horrible.
They weren't amazing. When you're looking at Forward Outlook, it was pretty decent.
When you're looking at some of the current numbers, they were solid to find. I think
this is a company trading at a 40 PE, not growing like that. So I mean, not a crazy move, but
what's your thoughts on Walmart? What's the takeaway here?
So, I mean, they missed EPS for the first time in three years,
so that's like the first thing.
The second thing that they talked about that's kind of interesting to me
is that their Sam's Club segment, which is their Costco, quote unquote, competitor,
they saw softness there, which I think is interesting.
So if you take a look at Costco,
Costco has been one of the sleeper winners,
actually for the NASDAQ,
and over the course of the last few years,
that's taken a hit today on the back of Walmart coming out
and basically saying that um
their their their membership customers aren't subscribing as or renewing the same way that
uh the market expected so the so to give you the number uh their their comp growth went from
6.7 in q1 to 5.9%.
So they saw a slowdown there.
But the main thing about this for me is this is either going to be like Walmart specific, so Sam's Club specific, or it's going to be, you know, some, something that's universal. Right.
And I, I think BJ's another one of these warehouse companies,
uh, announces tomorrow morning. So I think from that perspective, we'll get,
we'll get a response or get like some sort of clarity on,
is this like a Walmart one-off or is this like an industry thing? Um, and then, you know, obviously Costco.
All seriousness, people will think i'm joking here
the local like costco like place to me has always been bj's which i know the name is whatever but
that is the one that i've gone to for for a long time uh yeah it's pretty it's pretty popular in
the northeast especially um yeah i know i know like in the New York area.
It's like Costco, but like 70% of the traffic.
I can't compare the deals for you, but Costco is just too much for me.
Yeah, but anyways, so Costco trading at – I don't know what it's trading at on a multiple basis, but it's trading around $1,000.
I know it had gotten expensive several quarters ago,
but it's kind of like just been best of breed,
kind of been like, where else are you going to park it?
But if it's multiple places starting to say the same thing,
it could be something that starts to drag
and see some sort of profit-taking over know, however many weeks, months, whatever.
So it's one thing to note because, you know, Costco has been basically one of the main barometers
for how strong the consumer has been this entire run.
And so if there's any kind of chink in that armor, I don't know how the market will react to it.
And then the
other read-through is going to be just from the retail side uh amazon right so again if it's if
it's like one company specific uh then it's not it's not a really big really a big deal but if
the consumers are starting to make choices like hey i have a prime membership i don't need this
or i have this membership I don't need this,
or I have this membership, I don't need that, then, you know, this is where things can kind of get a little bit muddy.
And then you start to have actual competition, especially with some of these PEs, right?
So you just take a look at a lot of these grocery names, right?
So Sprouts, for example, is another one just up and to the right for years, right?
It's trading, I think, $150 now.
So yeah, I just want to pay attention to
the BJ's thing tomorrow. And then just kind of see, you know, how that plays out for Costco's
sake. And then outside of that, I think there's a lot of names, you guys talked about a lot of
names. I heard a couple of a few names. There's a lot of names that are basically at a make or
break point. Some of these, you know, a make or break point um some of these you know
bellwether favorites and some of these names have already started to break down a little bit and
they're trading you know below some key moving average levels so take a look at like taiwan
semi for example that name started to break down on a uh on a short term basis starting below it's
50 day 20 day five day so uh and it's being held up right now by its
prior all-time high um you know we'll see if that that actually kind of materializes
and and uh changes course nvidia now going into its earnings next week also trading below its 20
days this is day two below its 20 day you know again that's one of those setups where I think, what is it? It's like 7% or 6% between 20 day and 50 day.
So, you know, I don't know if it'll be Jackson Hole.
I don't know if it'll be NVIDIA.
I don't know if it'll be something else.
But, you know, some of these names that have been up and to the right have started to show a little bit of fatigue.
And then if you look at what was working yesterday and some of the names that were working today, it's been a lot of these names have been beat up, right? So, you know,
as I speak right now, something like CRM making a high a day, that stock got obliterated over the
last few weeks. I think it gave up 15, 20%, something like that over the course of like a
month. And, you know, some of the favorites now starting to show signs
of, you know, either some profit taking or just a stall out. So just want to pay attention on that
front and want to pay attention to some of these, you know, some of these names that have been
tapped over and over and over again, that aren't some of these consistent, reliable
names. So for example, take a look at some of these treasury names, right? So some of these
treasury names, SBET, BMNR, top of mind, right? These have been tapped multiple times over the
last couple of months, and they've been consistent winners. Starting to roll over. There's a little bit of fatigue there.
So just want to see, because I think these are more gauges
and more tells than anything.
This is not like, hey, you're seeing it here, so go short everything.
But these are little tells.
I can't lie.
I've been dipping into BMNR a little bit.
I've been building more of a trading position, yeah.
Cool.
Well, you got your 20 days sitting at 46 bucks.
That goes probably, probably see 37 real quick.
So there's your, there's your, there's your line in the sand, but, um, you know, if it,
if it is to break back out, then the opposite's true, obviously.
Right.
So all systems go and we break out of this downtrend. The last thing from a positioning standpoint and just from the people that look for possible seasonality sell-offs and stuff like that.
From a positioning standpoint, if you don't get a spark now, you're not going to get one for quite some time.
So the performance chase will be to the upside if you can go through these next couple of weeks and not actually sell off materially.
Because you're going to have this soft spot in November where you don't have a Fed meeting.
the soft spot in November where you don't have a Fed meeting.
And then you're going to have a situation where you have basically no material,
no material change in how the market's structured between middle of September
till the end of October when the Fed tells you what they're going to do in October.
So it's kind of like a lot of make or break here.
It might not be tomorrow.
It might not be until NVIDIA.
It might not even happen after NVIDIA. And be in it might not be until nvidia it might
not even happen after nvidia and then in that case you're gonna get your tell uh one way or the
other so i'm just paying attention though because a lot of things are starting to look a little bit
tired for lack of a better word who knows maybe it's just waiting but i'm just i just wanted to
point that out appreciate you wolfie i want to run through a couple things rapid fire.
We got the close coming up here in about eight minutes or so.
Who knows when you'll hear this?
Intuit, Zoom, Workday, Ross, a couple Ernie's coming up after the close.
We'll be tracking some of those, but I just don't feel like some of the biggest ones.
I want to run through a couple of the comments,
and a couple other stories will come out of this.
We did have Raymond, who we appreciate, Raymond always commenting
on these ones for a while, he was talking about
didn't know Chris Hansen was doing a
docuseries on Roblox
if you guys didn't see that Apple increased the
price of its Apple TV Plus by 30%
he said the new season of Silo
isn't even out yet, I don't know if anyone has
is a fan of shows
and sci-fi in
general sci-fi silo is a fantastic show actually i'm a big fan it's a good recommendation he's
asked if anyone's tried a celsius has anyone been watching celsius stock recently i can't lie to you
i sold i was like all right i got to 40 or 50 or whatever it was there was like all right i'm out
goodbye and here we are at 62 we got any celsius fans
traders buyers i wrote that i wrote that celsius wave in spreads called debit spreads with chris
patel oh my goodness we hit that twice and we both got out the top i've been super lucky but
i have not touched it since then don't want to try it a third time. And then a story that I saw,
Netflix is reportedly about to spend $35 million a year
to show the MLB's Home Run Derby.
Stock talk, $35 million to show MLB's Home Run Derby.
Do you think that makes sense?
To me, I'm like, all right, what?
Wait, who's paying that?
Netflix is closing in on a deal,
according to the Wall Street Journal,
to pay $35 million a year.
They can make other MLB-related content
as a result of those rights.
That's probably what Netflix thinks.
They're probably not doing it just for the Home Run Derby.
But I don't know.
I thought $35 million felt like quite a large number yeah it feels like a big number for just that event but it's again that's it's i don't know
what netflix's intention is with live sports but they are clearly trying to mold that strategy like When they did the Jake Paul thing, they had a ton of data on how that worked and how well it worked.
And they're I don't know what their internal insights are.
I don't work at the Netflix C-suite, but they're high level strategy.
People that report to the sweet C-suite guys are probably looking into that and saying,
look, we already have all, all streaming is heading for this. Now you're seeing this. Like
remember yesterday I spent like an hour talking about that Disney NFL media collision and why
it's happening and all this stuff. All of these, did you download the app? Are you paying the $40
a month? Um, no, I didn't download the app, but actually I'm going to later,
but I'm glad you brought that up.
But anyway,
all of these media collisions that are happening
are effectively the same thing,
which is that first we had cable,
then people who had content catalogs,
obviously beginning,
I'm talking about after Netflix.
Netflix was obviously the first mover.
But after Netflix made people realize okay technology's at the point that you can just digitally host
catalogs instead of having physical stores full of dvds the transition at that point became like
blisteringly obvious right like you that's not an industry where you can say oh we'll wait for the
we'll wait for the new technology to prove the incumbents out.
No, it's like you just clicked the delete button on all the CapEx necessary to run a video store.
Right. And put it all in the cloud. And it's like that.
Since then, everyone with IP of any kind, content IP of any kind, Paramount, HBO, Disney, so on and so forth.
Even at one point, Nat Geographic had their own streaming service.
I don't know if people remember that.
They had their own streaming service.
Nat Geo is fucking hilarious.
But anyway, everyone with a content catalog was like, oh, well, we own all our content.
We own our IP.
We own our characters and shows.
So why don't we just host all our stuff on our own subscription?
And then that's what everyone started doing.
And then inevitably those subscriptions became consolidated.
Right.
And so now we're just headed for what is essentially going to be digital TV.
Right. We're just headed for what is essentially going to be digital TV, right? Where each of these guys, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Disney, own rights to a handful of things.
And you can watch all of the things that they own, the disjointed, which will effectively be a bunch of disjointed catalogs, right?
You look at NBA rights.
The NBA rights are like a fucking pizza party.
Dude, like everyone's getting like,
oh, I get these 23 league broadcasted games. I get, you know, like if you're a, if you're a fan
of the NBA, it's a nightmare to watch unless you just go directly get league pass, obviously. But
then even on league pass, you have local games that are prohibited from being watched. Like it's
actually a nightmare for sports fans, this transition. But it's inevitably happening either way because everyone's making a grab for IP that they can host on their own streaming service.
It's become like a default requirement if you have enough money to have a streaming service.
Like Apple has one, Amazon has one, like so on and so on and so on.
So these guys are all going to play this content slash IP war for probably the next decade and throw way too much money at the rights to have these events just to get eyeballs on the platform.
Like, that's essentially what it is, right?
Like, Disney's deal with the NFL, like, you know, they want access to things that they know people watch.
They know people watch red zone.
Like every NFL fan I know watches red zone.
Every single like serious NFL fan I know watches red zone.
So what they're now,
they're all going to watch Disney.
Half those guys don't even have fucking have never even thought about having
the Disney or the Hulu app.
Right.
A lot of those guys that I,
at least that I ones that I know don't have the,
don't have a subscription to Disney plus.
Like they're,
they're just like, you know, they're dudes dudes dudes that want to like watch football they don't want
to watch like Marvel movies and so that connection that's what Disney is trying to attack Disney's
trying to attack that overlap on IP where they get people who wouldn't otherwise subscribe to
their platforms to do it and everyone else in streaming is doing the exact same thing
right like remember when
netflix started with you know they were obviously didn't have their own ip initially when it was
when it wasn't didn't have their own studio right so they were just like getting movies that you
know whatever that were down to be shown on there through whatever agreements they negotiated and
then eventually netflix was like oh we need our own ip because having that allows
us to make shows without these licensing fees over a multi-year or you know decade-long basis
or however long the shows in the ip want to run and for so many of these they're doing spin-offs
and doing like you know different series and so on and so forth so everyone's squeezing the juice out of every single content
catalog they have and it's by design like it's a rat race for content and streaming and that's
not going to stop and so the deals with the sports leagues i think it's just going to expand i think
you're going to start i mean tko group who owns the ufc just had got a crazy media deal a couple of weeks ago. I forgot
what the exact numbers were on it,
but I remember reading it and it was like eye-opening.
By the way, markets
closed, Intuit earnings
is out. That one is...
Not much
a move, but I am seeing it crossing.
Anyway, but yeah.
It's $7.7 billion
over seven years. So $1.1 billion a year for TKO. Yeah, that's. It's $7.7 billion over seven years.
So $1.1 billion a year for TKO.
Yeah, that's like a monster deal for them.
They got two deals, by the way. They also own WWE.
That deal came first, right?
So WWE was on, I think, Peacock.
And now they're signing a PLE deal with with ESPN which is actually kind of
really smart by ESPN because ESPN has moved off of the UFC deal and they gave that up to get the
the WWE and that's more because they can understand they have like basically a fixed
cost there and a fixed revenue that they can kind of programmatically expect because those customers are really loyal, right?
So I don't want to get too far in the weeds and interrupt you, but there's two deals that TKO got.
There was first the ESPN and then there's this.
in the next year because a lot of the inventory that they were selling before is now no longer
required to be sold uh to espn or to uh to paramount yeah tko is um they're a great company
i used to own the stock and i like regret selling it i mean i sold it for a nice profit but i regret
selling it i want to get back in that thing one day we'll see maybe it'll just get away from me again but um yeah it's a great great company um i do ufc has tons of upside but anyway yeah
it's it's it's a huge like people people think like okay well isn't this obvious like all these
guys have to get content to fill the streaming catalogs no it's not obvious actually if you if
you go back to the start of the
streaming revolution, I guess, if you want to call it, like the rise of Netflix,
the thinking was that there would be a handful of streaming platforms that would compete for business the same way the cable providers did. Instead, you have companies that prior to this
streaming revolution had in no way considered being media delivery companies
or had at least not initiated any serious commercial businesses to do so.
Apple being one of them.
Okay.
Now Apple makes films that get nominated for Oscars.
So, and Amazon, you know, has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on the studio and acquired
MGM for whatever, 3.4 billion, like a couple of years ago, none of these things would have happened had this, had the industry, not the
industry, really the world realized, oh, all it takes to start a streaming service is having IP
and, you know, a couple hundred million dollars to build the infrastructure effectively. And that
means that the barrier to entry fell from what post immediately post
netflix looked like an insanely high barrier to entry to basically a nothing barrier to entry in
the last five years and it's been penetrated by everyone by everyone and that it's gonna it's
gonna be brutally competitive people are gonna start overpaying for content you're going to see a lot of like i think content is going to be like content expenditures right now are not like a
huge focus on the financials of any of these streaming companies and i think in the next
couple of years they will become one because it's going to be get become even more brutally
competitive i don't know if people remember like shams and the other NBA reporters reporting on the NBA rights negotiations, but like Apple and Amazon and all these guys were
sending like huge negotiating teams to the league offices to try to close these deals. Like you're
talking about multi-trillion dollar companies trying to close sports rights deals. And they were willing to divvy up the pie, too.
Let's make a stock-picking league.
Let's turn it into a sport.
Let's get some of this money.
Boom.
That's kind of what we're doing, right?
Anyway, anyway.
But my question is how much of sports seems to be the area.
I mean, this whole market's been going in and a lot of the other parts of the market,
the showmaking or whatever,
we've seen Disney pull back in content spending
and we do that.
I wonder if we've reached that point,
but it hasn't been touched yet in the live sports area.
Yeah, the thing is the cost of content
is going to go down dramatically, right?
Because of AI.
You're also headed for that inflection point, right? So at
the exact same time that this is happening, and this is what tends to happen in markets and
economies in general, right? This is like a good principle to keep in mind is as,
I don't want to say generally as investment increases, but as there's this inordinate
amount of commoditization that happens in an industry and really streaming is becoming
commoditized, right?
Like everyone with it.
I mean, think about just the streaming industry.
I'm not talking about platform streamers.
Think about the streaming industry in terms of like the individual people who stream at home.
Like these kids who have gotten super famous like Kai and Aiden and XQC and these kids who have made millions and millions of dollars.
and these kids who have made millions and millions of dollars, in some cases, hundreds of millions of dollars by picking up their phone or getting on their desktop and streaming.
Like, that's insane, right?
So the barrier to entry is literally zero now.
And as a product of that, you're going to see a ton of investment.
And eventually, AI will make content generation significantly cheaper than it is today.
And the generation of IP will become less valuable.
Like great IP, like legacy IP will always be valuable.
Like legacy stuff that has generations of fans and generations of like loyal consumers, that stuff will always be valuable but like
this idea of like fresh design in in in the narrative industry like where people are writing
scripts and you know building art models and building designs for like the suits like i don't
know if people ever watch the alien movies but like ridley scott does this great uh interview that he does where he talks about like how they spent years developing like how all the
things would look like how the aliens would look how the predators would look how people like would
be suited up what the ships would look like like they spent years doing that before they ever even
thought about casting this movie or or even writing the script and that's like the former era of like art making and cinema
and content creation right now it's not going to be like that anymore now you're going to have like
ai models generate like six different types of suits for the alien and then you're going to have
you know somebody write a partial script and then have an ai model expanded into a full script with
dialogue like that's the kind of stuff you're going to start seeing, right? Not, not because people don't value real art, but because it's just cheaper that way.
It's more efficient that way. And now instead of movie studios and movie theaters dictating
success in the industry, it is now streaming platforms that are on in everybody's homes, right, that are competing
for content. That's the new norm of like the media and content industry. So it's completely
lopsided, right? Now your reward as a media or content creation company is not in the audience
reaction or the flocks of people that come to your theater. It's the idea of constantly entertaining the audience you have with new stuff so that they
stay subscribed so that they don't cancel their subscription.
There are so many people that cancel their subscriptions to streaming services right
when they don't release new stuff because they're like, oh, I've already seen everything
I want to see on here.
You know, they don't really release much new stuff.
That's when you see cancellations.
That's when streaming services become unsticky.
And so Netflix and HBO and Amazon and Apple are in this perpetual race to offer more and more and more and more and more to their audiences.
And that race will inevitably lead to the abuse of AI and content creation.
It's inevitable.
Whether you like it or don't like it or think it's good for art or bad for art,
I try not to think about that kind of stuff.
I kind of think of what will happen.
That will happen.
Because instead of paying hundreds of millions of dollars to build content catalogs
with design studios and, you know, all trademark offices and all these things and copyright.
And they'll just be like, dude, we'll just generate our own new IP and own new stories.
It's much easier to do that now.
We don't need hundreds of teams of writers.
Like, you know, an enterprise level AI platform can already do a lot of that work, frankly.
And maybe it won't be as like beautifully written.
But you also it's not like you're not going to have no humans involved in the process.
They'll obviously be human script overseers editors,
but it just dramatically reduces the cost of content.
And so both those collisions are headed for each other at the same time.
And that'll be an interesting thing to watch play out because that's going to
because that's going to happen in a lot of industries, not just content.
happen in a lot of industries, not just content.
I do wonder at one point at the start, and by the way, actually, before I go to this,
Lucid, their shareholders agreed to proceed with the 10 for 1 or 1 for 10 reverse stocks,
but we also had a couple of these earnings.
Agree to proceed with one for 10.
Stock down 99% in other earnings split.
All right.
Reverse stocks.
That's funny.
All right.
And then also a couple of the other earnings we had.
Workday was out.
That stock was initially moving higher.
Then it reversed and started to move lower.
Workday announced an acquisition.
Let me pull up these earnings we cared about.
Intuit, Workday.
Let's look at these.
Intuit was a beat on EPS, a beat on revenue.
Forward guidance was also above expectations on EPS.
It was above expectations on revenue for the year.
So the forward guidance is pretty good.
I did see Intuit was moving lower.
So I'd imagine there's something here that people were pointing towards.
Let's look somewhere else.
Intuit is down 6%.
Oh, that's a big hit.
Yeah, as always.
No, same thing on the last quarter, I recovered.
Anyway, I did want to touch on a couple of stocks from today.
I just rant a lot about that media stuff,
but I'm really interested in that stuff.
So that's why I would talk about it.
Ross Stores is up too after their report.
And then Zoom also reported earnings.
That stock is up 1.5% in after hours.
We'll circle back on some of them,
but that's how those initial earnings are moving.
Yeah, Stock Talk, you can go.
Yeah, so Energy Fuels had a bad day a couple days ago.
It was down like 16%, 17% on what I thought was really silly reason.
There was some headline about Kazakhstan
dramatically increasing uranium production or something,
and a bunch of those names got smacked,
including the rare earth metals names.
But I wanted a nice rebound today,acked, including the rare earth metals names. But I wanted a nice rebound today.
And mostly all the rare earth names did today as the Trump administration headline came out that the thinking of making Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in charge of a rare metals program and diverting a couple billion dollars of funding from the the chips funding to rare metals
so pretty much all the stocks were up today against the market you know usar was up like
seven percent but energy fuels you they were up a ten percent they had a nice pr this morning i think
that went sort of overlooked but i was reading i read a little bit of it this morning, I think that went sort of overlooked, but, um, I was reading,
I read a little bit of it this morning and then I read some more, um, intraday, but, um, I won't
get too much into the details and the weeds of it. I post the PR for the people that do know the
details and want to read about it. Yeah. You know, but, uh, I think the fact that even on a pilot scale, they had really nice purity for their dysprosium oxide.
They're basically, so I'm trying to break this down in a simple way for people that aren't familiar with rare earth metals.
But they have a plant, the White Mesa Mill.
I've talked about this before when I covered you on these spaces.
I don't know when it first was when I talked about it.
Maybe back in June I talked to you guys about it.
But at their White Mesa Mill in Utah,
they've been attempting to refine heavy REs.
I'll just refer to them as REs from now on,
but that's rare earth elements, in this case,
rare earth metals. But they have been trying a pilot project to see if they can make commercial
scale dysprosium and terbium at that facility. And I think the news from this morning is pretty
encouraging. It's not,
they're not close to being at commercial scale. Let's be clear. That won't be until 2026, but
I think it's encouraging. And I think at the very least, it solidifies this as a rare earth
exposure. You know, there's a lot of rare earth stocks out there. There's a lot of um good ones frankly you know another one that i
really like is is neocorp which uh wall street engine has covered a lot he's i see him down
there in the audience but if you guys want to see more about that you can search up his handle with
it and he's posted a lot about it but that's another really good one that has really really
smart strategic backers on it like peter thiel um and others so uh and uh including Ken Griffin as well so that's
interesting but um yeah it's uh it's an interesting one too but you you I've known about for a while
and I think this news makes it a validated rare earth play because if everything goes well and they execute then they could have
commercial scale dysprosium and terbium at that plant by the end of 2026 i think if you're being
a little more conservative probably maybe q1 or q2 2027 but if they really execute well then they
could and that would make them one of the only legitimate rare earth players in the United States.
And if you think about the rare earth theme, there's a lot of broad focus on rare earths.
Everyone's like, oh, rare earth, rare earth, bid up everything rare earth.
I think to a degree that makes sense.
I think there should be a premium on most U.S.-based rare earth stocks in general.
But I think it's important to be focused on what the
administration is focused on, which they've been very explicit that in the immediate term,
they're focused on heavy rare earths, right, for the use of magnets. And dysprosium and terbium
fit that profile. So I think if you're looking for a very specific heavy rare earth exposure,
that makes them interesting. And it makes the White Mesa Mill,
I think, even though it's an incremental catalyst, it just incrementally makes the White Mesa Mill
a more valuable national asset. And if you look at both of the exposures I have for the nuclear
industry in my portfolio, Centris and Energy Fuels, they both share one thing in common. I think the
White Mesa Mill and Centrist Energy's
traditional centrifuge enrichment facility are both strategic national assets. That is the
underlying thesis on both of those holdings. Yes, there's a lot of top-up stuff that I could talk
about and details I could give. And there's competitive risks and
supply risks. And there are risks, as always, as there are with any investment. But the thing that
underscores both of those is I think both of their facilities are national strategic assets
where we stand today. Now, could that change after a couple of years of investment? Yes. In fact, I expect it to. But I think if it does change, if if their
strategic moat changes for either of these companies in the next few years, I think that is
would be a sign that the industry is growing domestically and that there is more investment
domestically and that it's actually being executed effectively, unlike some previous spurts of investment in nuclear energy in the last couple of decades that haven't really
culminated where they should have. So I think there's a reason to keep owning both. And they've
both seen a lot of upside, you know, and so that makes some people, I think, like, look back and
be like, yeah, you know, they're up a lot. But for me, yeah, I could sell here and be a happy camper.
But I feel that there is the story isn't over yet.
I think there was a big hype run in a lot of these names because of everyone was talking about nuclear.
I think eventually people probably move on and focus on some other theme.
But I think this one has durable catalyst uh, catalysts, like catalysts that
will continue to come for the next couple of years. Cause keep in mind the Trump administration
is very clearly pro nuclear energy at this juncture. Like they are taking, uh, I don't
want to say extraordinary. Cause when I say it that way, people misinterpret it. I'll say
extraordinary steps to accelerate development of new nuclear technologies, things they don't have
to do, right? Like the SMR program they're doing, right? Like it's not even really a direct grant
program or anything. It's just them saying, hey, we want to work with you to try to get these
things to market as quickly as possible. That's bullish, right? Like that means the industry is
getting a special attention and you have four years of that, you know? And yeah, I just think it's important. I think people are going to go through these hype
cycles on nuclear, but I think durably these stocks will probably trend up over the next
five or six years. And so, yeah, anyway, I think that news today for you, you makes it again,
what I, what I said in the beginning about it was that it's a dual theme
exposure i think this reinforces that idea that it's a dual theme exposure it should act as both
an exposure to both rare earth metals and to nuclear energy i believe and so if it does do
that then you know i think the stock will continue to outperform the way that it has recently so
um bad day for that a couple days ago but really but really nice recovery today, back above the nine and 21 EMAs on that, uh, Penn national. I mean, I've been
talking about that one these last couple of days on these spaces, um, acting really well here above
the 200 day. Uh, it, it really had every reason to just have a minus six or 7% day these last
couple of days, right? Like considering how so many other stocks in this universe of names have acted
in the past couple of days or over the past week, I should say,
this thing has had every reason to say,
yo, just knife this down five or 6% like everything else.
And it didn't budge, right?
So holding ground above the 200-day,
and now it's allowing these shorter moving averages to catch up, penetrate the 200 day, potentially looking for, you know, a push here, you push
through 1950, which is like the local highs of this 200 day break. This thing has room to get
to the twenties pretty quickly. And, you know, then people may even start thinking this thing
is bottomed. I mean, look, the thesis for me here is pretty simple and pretty straightforward.
Yes, the technical structure is the type of setup I like.
So that's, you know, obvious.
But you have to ask yourself, is Penn National Gaming worth more than $2.6 billion when they control ESPN Bet, which is going to be integrated with the new ESPN app.
And if you think the ESPN brand is worth a premium and will allow for market penetration,
then you probably think it's worth more. And I think it's worth more. I think it will be worth
more. Like, I think the likelihood that you see zero market penetration for them as a consequence
of the ESPN bet app is would be
pretty remarkable to me like that they just get no additional market share as a result of that
integration that'd be kind of wild to me so yeah I think that one's pretty straightforward you know
it's technically the type of setup I like and it's also to me a straightforward story where it's like
hey look you either think this app and betting integration thing works. I think it will work. I think it's
a smart idea to have people be able to seamlessly bet while they're watching live. If you don't
think it's a good idea, then, you know, you probably think it's not going to expand market
share for them, but I think it will. And so I have a nice little cushion on that one now.
Nothing huge, but you know, I have a nice little cushion from where we got in and just letting it ride.
Lyft had a good day today, too.
This one's acting really, really well.
This is another one where, you know, really had every reason.
I mean, this isn't this is not a particularly strong stock.
You know, Lyft's not known, certainly recently, has not been a particularly strong stock. On down days in the market or down days in momentum or down days in small caps or mid caps,
this thing should have gotten slaughtered. But it didn't. In fact, on the red day that it did
have this week, it had air to the 50-day. Like, it could have just dropped all the way to the 50-day.
No one would have, you know, had made, made, made any, um, nobody would have been
confused about that.
You know, if this thing just fell to the 50 day, but it didn't, it gave very little room
compared to what was happening to other names that day.
And it was a really low volume sell too, which is notable.
And then you get buyers today and yesterday, again, on that thing, pushing it back up to
15 and at 1581 close, which is a really nice close.
I mean, daily structure on this one, not much to say. It's a bit extended, but I mean,
it's strong. And I think with reason too, right? I think you're going to continue to see a re-rating
on this one. So I think the weekly chart is very, very nice. It has that pinch setup that I love,
declining 200 days, sitting at 1701 right now
probably sitting at 1580 and you've stacked moving average support like all the way through the 14s
that's a clean setup on the on the weekly super clean so yeah i still haven't gotten out of lift
either and i have a nice cushion on that one as well now um fubo uh defended where it needed to defend it's obviously acted like
lately but that's okay i'm focused on the weekly and the monthly chart on this thing and the weekly
and the monthly look superb really fubon lift a very similar weekly setups here uh pretty much
the exact same thing this sort of mountain down climb of the 200 day sorry 200 week and then you have you know a ton of uh weekly moving average
support below the stock on fubo not as much support as would lift but i mean if the stock
can defend that 320 area really ideally 330 but if you know if you want to be lenient defend a 320 monthly close i think it looks fine still um and with fubo the story i
mentioned this yesterday too it was pretty simple like you have to ask yourself you think fubo's
worth more than 1.1 billion bucks after a merger with hulu live tv in which they own 30 of the
joint venture i mean with a stock that's already
trading less than one time sales, my opinion on that is yes. You know, like what other major
streaming live streaming service is trading at less than one time sales? I don't know one.
And I certainly don't know one that's fucking merging with Disney assuming and obviously,
again, merger risk so you
know but yeah i have a pretty simple thesis on most of my positions i just look at stuff
and i'm like the charge nice and this valuation should be higher that's pretty much like every
position i have you know and and obviously the the the second part that this valuation should
be higher part that's that involves a lot of work, right. To make that conclusion, you can't just like willy nilly say that, but,
you know, I look at peers. That's one way I contextualize valuation. Uh, I look at like
similar companies that, you know, they don't have to have similar amounts of revenue.
You can contextualize that too, right. You could have like stock X does, you know, $1.2 billion in yearly revenue and makes $200
million of profit and stock B does $5 billion in revenue and makes $450 million of profit or
whatever. And then you go and compare the valuations and you compare what they do in
the industry, what their moats might be,
what their defensive technology, defensible technologies might be. You know, if they have a market share advantage, study why they have it. Ask yourself, okay, do they have it because they
were a first mover? Do they have it because of network effects? Do they have it because of
technological advantage? Do they have that market share advantage because they had a great intro product that was very sticky, which reduced turnover?
Like there's a million reasons why somebody could have a market share advantage.
In fact, a lot of people ask me this, like what to do when you research stocks? stocks studying studying um incumbent market share leaders right so pick an industry find
the market share leader and study that company front to back not in terms of like what are the
financials i mean yeah you do want to know the financials but like i'm not talking about like
to deep dive them fundamentally or build a model.
I mean, study the company's strategic advantage and why they have a market share advantage.
Like if you, if you find a company, let's say you're interested in an industry and you
find a company in that industry that has 65% market share, right?
That's a great opportunity to learn for, for those guys and gals out there who
don't know how to stock pick and don't know how to like study companies. That's a great opportunity
to learn because what you can do is, and then go and see that company, go see their competitors,
get a basic idea of the industry. You want to understand the industry to a basic degree,
right? You can't just be flying blind when you're studying a company. If you're studying a copper company, you don't know anything about the copper industry,
it's going to make it difficult to study. But use your favorite LLM if you want,
you know, to help you on your journey. It's much easier now than it was a couple of years ago.
Use your favorite LLM to help you study. But deep dive the company and ask questions or research why they are beating
competitors in different categories. Why are they beating competitors in sales? Why are they beating
competitors in retention? Why are they beating competitors in product development? Why are they
beating competitors in innovation? Why are they beating competitors in deployment?
Can I ask you a question a little off topic here but it's about prompting one of the
things that i find my big problems with ai still at this point is i don't know if i can trust all
the data i'm seeing there's just certain things that just doesn't do i don't know i just i don't
know if i could trust everything and i feel like i have to go make that part a lot of times are you
how are your prompts at that are you like asking for it
let's say i'm using gpt5 right i like to have claude pulled up or um grok pulled up or gemini
pulled up lately i've been using gemini to verify so what i'll do is and this isn't perfect okay
but it's efficient.
And like for a guy that's, I use LLMs a lot, like I don't have time to like spend an hour verifying everything.
So I sort of just trust this process, but I go to chat GPT, right?
And then I will ask him a question and then I will copy and paste the response into Gemini
and say, you are a verifier and editor or something, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah to verify this information.
Your job depends on it.
Please verify every statement made in this whatever it is, if it's a paragraph or sentence or whatever.
So I do that a lot.
And I very often find errors very often like sometimes i've done it where i'm
using gemini and then i'll ask gpt and gpt will find errors too i have found that gemini i think
gemini is the best model right now if you ask me um but gpt5 is really good though too i haven't
used gpt5 enough to, make that judgment call yet.
But based on what I've used, I think Gemini's the best model right now.
And I think they're winning the race thing, too, right?
I think there's, like, a race going on, a betting, a polymarket thing, I think.
Anyway, for, like, best model by the end of the year, I think they're winning that.
But Gemini's really, really, really good.
I don't know what that even means.
I don't know what that means.
It's like some leaderboard that they have going on.
I don't know.
Who decides the leaderboard? Is it based off votes?
I don't think so.
I think it's based off performance.
Based on what benchmark
are they using? The Bat-AI
chatbot arena thing?
Yeah, I think that's what it was. based on what benchmark are they using like a bat AI chatbot arena thing? Yeah.
I think that's what it was.
I will look into it chatbot.
Okay. So basically
so basically
that's a good way to do it.
And I've had that question a lot. So I'm glad you asked that.
But go for it. what were you gonna say
no you're good you're good i was trying to find where the the polymarket market was
yeah i want to shout out yunezu too who's our head of research me and him
uh chat every morning when we're doing our pre-market research but he brought a name up to
me today and um he ended up posting about it in his journal in our discord too i covered it in our pre-market call as well but it was a
name that i typically wouldn't be looking at but it was cooper standard holdings ticker cps
and they've never been covered by wall street and they got their first wall street coverage today
for those of you that say trading analyst reports is stupid that stock was up 17 today on just an analyst report
you know so um yeah stifle is is now covering uh cps and it was really interesting you know
it's a 500 million dollar market cap stifle's a great shop by the way and uh the you know uh
city had coverage of them i think but it's like really old coverage.
It was like neutral coverage.
And it was like, you call it like dead coverage.
technically not the first on the street, but
the market
interprets it that way because it's dead coverage
on the other side.
But yeah, they
talked to management and management gave them 20, 30 targets.
And they're implying an EBITDA growth
of 120% over the next five years.
So it was a very, very aggressive note
from Stiefel on them.
And that stock went crazy.
So shout out to Yanezu for that
because that was a great call today.
We also covered Pubmatic
in our morning call this morning.
That stock was up like 9% today. There was a nice note out from rosenblatt that the market overreacted to
their last earnings they had like a 17 target on it so pretty aggressive target from rosenblatt on
that name too i'm not a huge rosenblatt fan but they do move stocks because they have a pretty
loyal group of uh of people that follow their research So they do move stocks and they did the,
they did today too with Pubmatic move that thing like 8.7%.
but yeah,
yeah,
there were a couple of,
interesting reports out this morning.
I'm looking at the thing,
the chat bot thing at the end of the year,
it says Google 63% open AI,
16% XAI 15.
And I'm sure it is that
chatbot arena LLM
leaderboard.
Yep.
Let's look through some
more of the comments that we
have from down below. Can anyone join us
up here? Monitive's not up here now.
Let's go through
some more of these comments.
Netflix is coming to issue.
Sorry, Stock Talk.
Remember.
Interesting.
Zero chance we get a cut.
Someone wants to ask thoughts on GLD and TLT.
I don't think that's one that we'll talk about.
Lending Club is one that's been talked about on here,
but I don't think you've talked much about lenders at All Stock Talk.
I don't think you have too much.
I thought Upstart had a monster report.
I mean, so did JP Morgan.
That stock had a great day yesterday.
I think it was like flat today, but it had a great day yesterday.
SoFi is an interesting one.
Yeah, SoFi is not interesting to me.
I don't find banking interesting really what about new age disrupting
a no but new bank new bank is different because new bank is a is a disruption story in developing
markets and and i didn't mean like new bank like and you i meant like new banking in general oh
new w banking this new kind of form like this is where people are putting their money
as younger people get more money they're not gonna less unless they're gonna put it in jp
morgan and maybe jp morgan but some of these other ones i don't know i mean so far's chart looks
great i'm not saying i'm bearish so far it's probably going up but i just it's just not
interesting to me you know it's not my type of not my type of name
i prefer robin hood i think robin hood sexier i think the idea of like
i think the idea of banking is like
i think i think there's probably a future where people just bank with their brokerages
market participation is going up a way too high of a rate like people are starting to realize who never realized before that like they can just like
have all their money at their fingertips and like manage it actively and i think
more people will start doing that
again i'm not saying banking is going to die but you know everyone i don't want people to
leap to conclusions when I, like,
make comments like that,
because some people think that I'm saying, like,
oh, it's, like, the end of banking.
I don't think that, but I do think people
are taking more ownership of their own money.
Like, I think financial advisement
is slowly dying.
I don't know.
We'll see.
Maybe it goes to robo-advisors and stuff stuff like that but i don't think it's fully done there's just so much stuff no matter what it's going to be complicated you're
not going to put in the right prompt even if it's cheaper and whatever but like i you know going in
and picking the stocks like yeah you could just go in and pick whatever index fund or etf but um i don't know i think i
think younger people want i think younger people are less inclined to want other people to manage
their money i genuinely believe that now we'll find out if i'm right in the next decade but i
believe that i don't think the next i don't think like i think the kids today that are in their late teens or early 20s,
I think if you gave most of them $100,000,
I don't think they would take it to a financial advisor.
I genuinely do not think so.
And I think that that's a difference in financial posture from like 20 years ago.
Like, I don't know what prompted that.
Maybe it's like the Robin Hood phenomenon
or maybe it's like the GameStop era
or maybe it's like COVID, stimmy checks.
I don't know.
I don't know what,
like maybe it's a,
maybe it's a combination of all of those things,
but like if you were to put a gun to my head and say,
would the average kid under the age of 25,
give their money,
give it to a financial advisor.
If you give them a hundred thousand dollars,
I think the answer would be no,
but I don't know. I don't have data to back that. So dollars i think the answer would be no but i don't know i don't have data to back that so i guess that's just my gut but i don't know that that i genuinely believe that it'd be hard to convince me otherwise what's up stock
sniper so you put your hand up i have a totally random question it's completely different from
the subject so am i good or yeah so i have a question for you about Kratos because I know you like talking about that one.
What do you think about Kratos when it comes towards satellites and getting into the cybersecurity space?
Is that something that you've considered?
What do you mean?
Like Kratos getting into that space?
Yes.
Not really. um not really i mean i think they should be focused like where their their specialties are
right now you know and you know specialized munition systems drones autonomous systems
i think that's where they should be focused because the space and satellite industry is
super competitive now you know like everyone like and i think it'll end up being basically a monopoly for SpaceX.
And Rocket Lab will get like some market share because there'll be an alternate launch provider.
And, you know, ASTS will get some market share because there'll be an alternate to Starlink.
And I think, you know, you'll have in the center of it all, I think SpaceX will be the juggernaut.
SpaceX is just so far ahead of everyone and everything in terms of deployment, actual deployment. I'm not talking
about theoretical products. I'm talking about actually stuff that works and is being used.
SpaceX is like the, I don't even call them the crown prince. They're the king of the global space
industry. So I don't feel the need for anyone to get overly king of the global space industry so i would i don't feel
the need for anyone to get overly competitive in the satellite area and i don't think kratos needs
to do that so i got one last question for you but also i'm pretty sure spacex is doing a launch
today and i think elon's launched two rockets today um but do you think kratos would ever get
into the collaborative uh space kind of like lockheed and Boeing, you know, like how they're kind of working together on some
aircrafts?
Yeah, maybe, but they, they, they, they're like one of the Kratos is one of the first
companies, defense companies ever to adopt the, the idea of like investing into and building
your own technologies, you know, but, and, and and and onto your earlier comment like on
space and satellites i don't want to imply that like they don't they already have some space and
satellite exposure you know like they have uh i don't know if it was last year i think they got
a space development agency contract i think it was last year in like september november or something
like that uh they got one for like 100 million bucks from the
space development agency so they get some satellite contracts and in terms of cyber
security for their own internal systems they have cyber secure softwares you know so
they're not doing it at scale it's not like a huge part of their business but they have some
exposure but um sorry what was
your the second part of your question it was a second separate question and it was just like
you know how lockheed and boeing you know kind of collaborative together i mean it just depends
like okay so you're talking about like sub subcontracting slash collaborating right
so like the f-22 yeah yeah exactly yeah so generally the primes have like a handful of
specializations and then they have like the primes have a lot of overlap okay but they have
specializations like general dynamics for example wins most of the major shipbuilding awards right
because they have the scale to service them,
but then they subcontract them out to Huntington Ingalls, right? Because Huntington Ingalls has
the commercial shipbuilding expertise to, you know, be able to actually execute on those contracts.
So on Kratos' side, Kratos has made a habit and sort of, they're like the first Anduril,
it and sort of, uh, they're like the first Andrew, right? Andrew makes their own stuff and then goes
and tries to win contracts with those products, right? Saying, Hey, we develop this in-house with
our own money and now we're going to win a contract with it. The traditional way of the
primes, this isn't universally the case, but traditionally the primes like to take the contract money and then develop the product right and then then deploy it so like they want the money up front to develop the product and
instead of using their own capital to do it and so kratos sort of broke that trend did that when
it was at a time when it was unpopular in the defense industry and now you have new entrants
like anduril trying to replicate that process so kratos is really like the og anduril if if you know you want to think about it seriously and they're in all the new age defense
areas so to answer your question do i see them doing it maybe if they need a prime to accomplish
some sort of larger contract which they might like maybe to win a if they want to win like a 50 or 60
billion dollar award or something you know it's like kratos is like a 10 11 billion dollar company
if they wanted to win like a 50 or $60 billion award, they'd probably have to collaborate with
one of the primes. But in that situation, I would encourage them to do so. Right. But
we haven't seen that yet. So we'll see. And they have collaborated by the way,
in the past with the prime. So it's not like they they're, they're like a maverick or anything
that doesn't want to talk to anyone, but if they need to, they will. But they have a history and a habit of sort of building their own products
and specializing in their own products and deploying their own products.
So correct me if I'm wrong, but they collaborated with Airbus one time, right?
Yeah, they collaborated with Airbus.
They collaborated with Lockheed before.
They've collaborated with General Dynamics.
No, not General Dynamics.
They've collaborated with somebody there's another uh
prime than uh north rope north rope uh so yeah they've collaborated with primes before
yeah i'm sorry to segue there i've not stopped reading about this name and the more i read about
it the more i like it man i gotta say i'm yeah they're amazing company they're amazing company
they do they do like real work like real defense work like to build real new products like rather than doing
what everyone else is doing like so much of the defense industry is centered around a handful of
things uh like actual hardware in other words aircrafts tanks military vehicles munitions so
like bombs missiles of all types and then air defense platforms that's like what most
of right now not right now but prior to the ukraine war but most of the defense spending was was
centered around and now it's shifting away from that to drones to cyber security to anti-drones
to counter uav uAS, and autonomous weapons.
Those are the big new categories that are getting bid up. And in the U.S. especially with this Golden Dome project,
then you have missile defense there as well and precision-guided munitions.
So I think it's smart to get exposure to those names.
All the aerospace and defense names I've talked about this year have done insanely well,
like Huntington, Kratos, go go look at mercury systems they just had a
fantastic report that stock went up like 20 on their last report i owned that one earlier in
the year too you know you look at standard aerospace i don't know i haven't looked at
them in a while but i imagine they're they did decent they're still doing decent so many of these
stocks are doing well um and there's a reason for it, because there's a there's a change in priority of defense spending that's happening globally.
And that means money is going to move, you know, and in a lot of cases, it's not only going to move from side to side.
In other words, from the old industries to new industries, but it's also going to move from top down because the legacy primes globally are specialized in those old industries, right? All their infrastructure and
product development and focus has been in those industries of like the, you know,
massive military hardware and aircraft and munitions and things that were more important, you know, in the pre-Ukraine war era.
And now people are focused on stuff that has been, you know, shown to be sort of the new
age of modern warfare and people are more focused on that.
So, yeah, that pivot is happening and there's a reason the market is bidding these names
And I think they will continue to float richer valuations than their larger peers for a long time because of that
yeah i gotta say i'm a firm believer that if there was another major war to break out um i believe
that there will be a lot more drones in the sky than fighter jets first off the second thing that
i have to make a huge point about this is you know i think that there's a lot more countries that can afford to buy drones than that countries
that could spend a quarter million dollars a quarter billion dollars excuse me on an f20 well
i mean they can't even get the f-22 but f-35 lightning you know not not everyone can afford
that exactly and also again it's going to be cheaper and you don't have to have a physical
pilot in there you don't have to train a physical pilot in there. You don't have to train a pilot for years when most of these jets cost like $30,000, $40,000 an hour for flight time.
I think that Kratos, I absolutely love the stock.
And I think even in the event if something was to break out or if geopolitical tensions were to rise and we were starting to see a lot of countries increase defense budgets, I think kratos is honestly like one of the better positions especially considering like just what you said the
ships in modern warfare i think that you know there's going to be a lot more drones and we've
obviously already seen you know the fastest vehicle that we've ever created i mean i don't
even know if i could call it a vehicle but the the the fastest uh, ship,
I don't even know what the, it's a drone.
You know, we've had drones that have broken Mach 9.
You know, we've yet to see a single plane
ever break Mach 7 with a person inside of it.
So, I mean, I totally do think drones are the future
of war.
I think one day
we'll be getting in a fighter jet
on these spaces or something. Watch out.
We got to keep growing, but
that's Sniper's dream.
Dude, that would be awesome
if we had a fighter jet up here.
I don't know exactly how we would do that with spaces,
but that would be pretty cool.
Yeah, I don't know how that would work.
I think Evan means doing it live, but
do it live! do it live do it live
um yeah but powell tomorrow sorry we had a lot of stuff going on i was checking what time it was
10 a.m eastern tomorrow morning is what time that press conference is i kind of part of me thinks
that we're not going to get any resolution from this and it's just going to be i think people want him to say this rate cutting thing is starting
he's probably just going to say data dependent and then won't say anything about it there's no
q a on this i think it's like normally a 15 20 minute press conference i was looking at some
some posts or whatever about it that the past couple ones of this haven't been too volatile like we've closed both those days
like down 0.2 percent or something i don't know but markets at interesting points stock talk i
know you've been saying this a lot of a lot of charts are near key levels and these weekly
close this weekly candle is pretty big and it kind of coincides with a powell press conference
so maybe this one's different and we get some big moves. It's a speech and a press conference, right?
Or just a press conference?
I think it's just...
I don't think there's Q&A.
So it's not a press conference then?
So it's just a speech?
So I guess it's just a speech is what you're saying.
Whatever.
I think it's just a speech then.
Okay.
No, I don't know.
I don't know what to expect
maybe Powell doesn't want to address it
but they've used Jackson Hole as a place to
do some of these changes
all right
Lucid Motors
10 to 1 reverse stock split
that was an interesting thing
I don't want you guys to go see
a higher price on Lucid
and think something crazy happened.
Yeah, that's not normally something you do when your stock is going too well.
But for anyone who doesn't know what a reverse stock split is,
basically if you have 100 shares at $2,
you're not going to have 10 shares at $20.
This is what happens when you want the stock price to go up
and your company isn't
doing a good job to get it up in a nice way. So great. We'll see. We'll see. Lucid buying
themselves a little time. I saw some people commenting maybe they should just go private
to the Saudi backers. I don't know. But yeah, Lucid stories going on. I feel less and less
people are going to watch and there might be another lucid reverse stock split at some point.
Yeah, I think that was pretty good. Honestly, I don't know.
We don't have to keep kind of pushing
here if there isn't anything that we're going on.
How are you feeling with no gym?
How are you feeling with no gym, though?
No, it should be fixed
tonight. I think I'm going to go tonight.
Okay. Yeah. You feel I'm going to go tonight. Okay.
Yeah.
You feel a little antsy or something.
I don't know.
Yeah.
Not actually, but I feel like.
It kind of throws me out of my routine.
Well, yeah, we'll see.
I think it'll be done.
I'm going to check tonight.
Anyway, we'll see you guys next week.
Yeah, appreciate you all. Iall uh all the speakers a follow if you enjoy these type of conversations make sure you are giving this account a follow uh
yeah jackson hole tomorrow 10 a.m eastern and then next week is nvidia earnings week so we're
gonna be live for that that nvidia earnings day, this 10 minutes we're taking off here,
we're going to repay you with probably an extra two, three hours
off the back of that one.
Don't worry. We'll make up for it.
We appreciate y'all. Have a great one, team.
Oh, by the way, Stock Talk, I'm actually going to Texas,
it looks like, next month for the first time.
It's Austin, not Dallas.
Oh, nice.
Just coming to Dallas.
Two hours away.
I was looking at the schedule for the Cowboys game
because I would love to go to a game.
And they're in Chicago on the 21st, unfortunately.
But they are home on the 14th, so maybe I try to make it work.
We'll see.
But I'd love to go to a Cowboys game.
Yeah, we'll go.
It's Cowboys Giants.
It's Cowboys Giants.
Yeah, that'll be a great game.
Dude, I heard you talk so much smack about the Cowboys last year,
like on a day-to-day basis.
I don't like the Cowboys, but I actually don't care.
I'm a Jets fan.
I just want to talk crap because Empin and Sock Talk does.
I really could care less about the Cowboys,
if I'm being fully honest.
But they seem to have a routine.
And, you know, sometimes when my teams are doing bad,
I like other people's.
Whether you like the Cowboys or not,
a game at Jerry World is still amazing.
I mean, there's like 100,000 people in the stadium.
It's fire.
It's amazing.
It's a great experience.
That's it.
That's why I want to go.
All right.
We'll talk.
Have a good one, team.
We appreciate you all.
Jacksonville tomorrow.
I'm expecting not a massive move.
Maybe the market pushes it.
Now that I'm saying that, maybe we get that massive move.
Let's hope it's up 10%. I'm for it.
Have a great one, team.
Goodbye.
Evan's a secret Cowboys fan. Thank you.
