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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Jan. 15, 2026 Duration: 1:16:01Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, participants highlighted key partnerships and trends shaping the crypto and tech landscapes, including Ford's collaboration with BYD for hybrid batteries and Riot's significant energy capacity for AI-driven data centers. The conversation also touched on the strategic shifts of Bitcoin miners towards AI, alongside new project launches in the dredging and tech sectors, signaling robust growth opportunities.
Full Transcription
Yo, yo, what is up, everybody?
How are you guys doing?
I hope you are all ready and excited for another day of Stocks on Spaces.
This is going to be a little bit of a wonky one.
I am on the road.
So we'll see how that goes.
But we do have another Stock Talk play coming today.
So I hope you guys are excited for this conversation here.
I am very much looking forward to it. This should be a great day. Great day. Wonderful day. We had
time on semiconductor earnings coming out last night. Those are pretty good. Semiconductor
earnings were doing. Semiconductor stocks had a great day. I know NVIDIA was moving higher,
stuff like that. I haven't checked in the last hour or so. Let's see how much it's holding on.
NVIDIA is still up 3%. A couple others are doing well.
So hopefully it is a good day for the stock.
Well, hopefully we have a good close, good power hour.
I know there was a little bit of red on the board there.
We started green market a little bit more green than we are closing,
setting up to close today.
But there's still an hour left.
Let's see how power ends up playing out.
Shout out Martin.
Shout out Henry.
Shout out Planet T.
Also here, Franco and a couple others.
Thank you guys for joining us
here on this wonderful
Spaces today.
Thursday, Stocks on Spaces
is here.
And I hope you guys
are all excited.
Like I kind of gave you
a little bit of a hint there.
Stock Talk does have
another pick that he's
coming in.
If you guys are active
and avid listeners
of the Spaces,
you might know what the stock pick is.
Somebody might have even guessed it.
There hasn't been many times where I've been able to say that,
but yeah.
So expect that in the next little bit.
I appreciate you all.
This might be a little bit of a short stock in Spaces
because I'm on the road.
I don't know what you can hear in my background,
but yeah, let's kick into it mr options mike how you doing sir
heaven nice to see you again man how you doing i am doing well i know last time we were talking
more earnings stuff like that talking a little bit more um general market general stuff what's
going on in your world what you're trading today what you're thinking about this market
tell me more this market is really just stuck in one hell of a rut.
We just cannot get any kind of clean, easy moves here in the indexes themselves.
I mean, you know, we gapped up today nicely.
And then now here we are, lows of the day on the SPY and on the Qs.
And, you know, it's just messy action.
action. It's very, you just cannot get a nice clean move for whatever reason.
It's very, you just cannot get a nice, clean move for whatever reason.
You know, but the semis had incredible strength today based off of the semis earnings. You have
the SMHs on a new all-time high. You had NVIDIA had a nice move there today, traded that. AMD
traded that, had a nice move on that one today. The banks, Goldman Sachs had a fabulous report
along with Morgan Stanley. They're both at all-time highs and lifted the rest of the banks goldman sachs had a fabulous report along with morgan stanley they're both at all-time highs and lifted the rest of the banks i traded citigroup off of that move there
but honestly you know you're looking around the rest of names microsoft continues to get
beat up badly meta had a little bounce today hood has been dumping all day
coin is dumping today there's just some very not great action out there today and
very not great action out there today and there's no real rhyme or reason for it there's nothing
really going on here this market just does not want to release every time it has a chance to
push up and to start moving and go it finds a way to pull back today you know we had a gap up after
yesterday's visit below the 21 day in the spy and we're just about giving the whole entire gap back
here and for no good reason whatsoever.
So very, very messy action, not the easiest of action to trade.
And really after that first hour, hour and a half, the market gets just,
it just gets bad.
You know, every candle gets undone quickly.
It's a lot of chase candles.
It just cannot find the type of action they're looking for.
So I've been trading mostly in the morning and then just watching the
afternoons right now from a, you know, a trading I'm not selling any of my long-term stuff, still holding
firm with that, but it's just the action, very, very messy. Boeing with another nice day.
Boeing has been having a nice day. There's been some weird different stocks that have not been
working for a long time that are working pretty well.
So it's an interesting one.
You got any thoughts on Boeing?
Is that on your no-trade list?
I have.
I traded earlier this week.
I didn't do well with it.
This name always kind of just gives me a hard time.
It pops and it yanks back.
It's been had a nice move from the lows of 176.
So it's had a hell of a move in the last two months.
Earnings will be interesting to hear what they have to say there a nice move though i account
uh i don't trade that often i used to trade all the time but i kind of got out of sync with the
stock it likes to pop and then yank back like mad and i'd always find my stops before turning around
and heading back up yeah that makes sense that makes sense is alibaba also on your no trade list
i generally very rarely trade China stocks in general.
So just as an FYI, I just don't like the way they trade anymore. Most of them trade overnight.
And then we are tracking stock here in the United States now more than anything else.
And honestly, the way that the way they the leadership in that country will talk at any time and institute new new policies out of the blue, it just makes it difficult to want to be in those.
For me.
All right, StockSniper, how are you doing, sir?
I'm doing all right uh can't complain
pretty interesting yeah give me a read what's what's going on in your world what's going on
in my world is i gotta say my top look is gonna be kratos um kratos made another new all-time high
today we saw it touch that 126 level i'm really excited to watch this and i gotta say uh my day
is pretty much just consumed with uh waking up in the morning and taking a look at how Kratos is
performed there's been a few interesting things today one thing that I've been
watching pretty closely okay there you're back you I missed everything you
said oh okay so I've pretty much been watching Kratos very intently waking up
in the morning and it's one of the first things that I'm checking.
We crossed that $126 level today.
I got to say, I'm insanely intrigued.
The momentum on this name is unreal.
I've seen very few things like it in my experience in the market.
I have to say, there's a few cool stories or a few interesting things that I've been watching.
But one of the bigger things that I've been watching was the ford uh byd uh hybrid battery partnership
um i think that that one's going to be pretty interesting and i'm sure a lot of you remember
about two three weeks ago um i was talking about how you know i think it's a good move for ford
to kind of shift from making the lightning and full ev models and kind of focus on some of their
hybrid models like the ford ecoboost mustang Mustang that we know is a staple and that's been selling pretty well for a substantially
long time. I think that the BYD partnership is not confirmed at all. Both companies haven't said
much. There's rumors of this going, but again, it is a pretty good fit for them there. And I think,
again, this is a nice development for Ford stepping in and trying to
get this hybrid vehicle dominance. What's going on in some of the other parts of the world? I
know we got multiple sniper accounts. What's going on there? We got some interesting talks
in the data center world. It seems like a lot more people are starting to get their eyes on the
Riot side of things. It seems like Riot has 1.7 gigawatts of power that will be available.
As we know, Iron has that partnership right now with Microsoft and Cypher Mining has a
partnership existing with Amazon. It pretty much seems like a big story out in West Texas is going
to be how much gigawatts of power can all these data centers really ramp up to.
We're seeing them spend lots of money acquiring more GPUs, building larger data centers, and they're going to be looking to offer more cloud compute in a series of products.
But basically, I think a big part of 2026 is we're going to see a lot of these names that we've existingly known as Bitcoin miners, some that we can remember from 2021, 2022, that were pretty high,
Riot, Marathon, et cetera. I think we're going to start to see some of these guys
restructure their power and try to focus this more on AI. Because again, as we know,
Bitcoin's all over the place. And again, a lot of these miners still do have
heavy Bitcoin. They're still a good Bitcoin proxy. They're moving up and down and they do
have heavy correlation with Bitcoin. I think as this year progresses, we're going to see more and
more of these deals come. I think as these deals come, I think they're going to start to be less
priced in with Bitcoin. And I think we're going to start to see them move more with the total AI trade. I personally am looking to see and watching for those, watching very closely every day for
deals. But I think Riot is going to be a big player in the space and we will see. But I have
been watching the West Texas data center pretty well. It also seems like Cypher is developing a
lot quicker than we anticipated. It also seems like Iron willher is developing a lot quicker than we anticipated it also seems like iron
will have more possibly could be a couple months ahead of schedule on one of their projects we
don't know for sure but this is just based on satellite images that we've seen
all right i appreciate you sir stock talk do we have you or is it prime leo walking time
i know i know we had this talk before
i think it is primarily a walking time this is for anyone who doesn't know
the uh the official dog of the spaces uh this is when he goes out and gets walked around 3 to 3 15
p.m eastern every single day so uh that is one thing we do not mess with is uh leo's leo's walking
time so shout out to that.
Shout out to Space. I was
kind of hyping up a little bit earlier.
We have a stock talk pick
coming up through on the Spaces.
As I was saying
a little earlier, if we're smart people,
maybe wouldn't be surprised here.
If you are surprised, that doesn't mean you aren't
smart. I still appreciate you.
Sniper?
Yeah, I forgot to make one more point, too.
I haven't completely explored this, but it was a pretty interesting observation that I made today.
I like to take a look at some hedge fund activity.
See how many hedge funds are increasing positions in certain companies, a lot of these growth names.
How many more of them are holding it
in this quarter versus last quarter. And one observation that I was able to make was when I
take a look over at MicroStrategy, it seems like less hedge funds are holding MicroStrategy
going into this quarter. But the interesting part to me is we're seeing 615 position increases on micro strategy versus 326 position decreases um
this could be hedge funds doubling down or averaging down on their costs uh just something
interesting to monitor um as micro strategy is uh less total funds are holding it but
more total position increases um pretty interesting thing to me
pretty interesting that definitely doesn't
make sense. Thanks for the rundown there, Mr. Sniper. We're heading into earnings season here,
StockSniper. Are there any interesting earnings that are coming up for you in the next week or
so? Oh, I like them all. I think that this week, we're going to have a good idea or a good story of what's going on with the banks by the end of this week.
Most of them have reported.
The banks are typically the first guys to report.
One of the major airliners was reporting.
I got to say I have not caught up on it.
We're getting some pretty good insight into there.
My favorite earnings people, you got to be checking out Earnings Hub.
I got to say I'm on the hub just about every single day. We saw Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, JP Morgan, and BlackRock
earnings are coming out. We got PNC Bank coming. Morgan Stanley was out also this morning as well.
So we're just about done with the banks there. I'm taking a look and watching specifically,
we saw Delta earnings come. And I think that next week, we're gonna see a lot of the other airliners report.
It's gonna be interesting to see
if there's any kind of differences
and see if everybody's maintaining the same market share,
see if people are shifting around
and see kind of what's going on
in that overall domestic travel space.
I'm sure that there's a lot of people interested in that.
I know a couple of people
like to frequently talk about airliners,
but I don't want to say it
is my expertise watching the commercial airline revenues, but it's going to be pretty interesting.
And I feel like, again, there could be a shift in market share, considering we have seen a couple
of acquisitions, which it is a space that is very slow to develop mergers and acquisitions,
considering that the government has frequently blocked them
and considering nobody really wants to give up anything.
And again, everybody pretty much has a decent-sized market share.
Mr. Options Mike, I know we talked about it a little earlier.
Tell me more. What earnings are you watching?
Next week, I think we have Netflix, which i think is going to be very interesting
considering what's been going on there um you know they're you know everything being sold off
and going on they're going to be pretty interesting they're tuesday night if i remember correctly
uh what else do we have hang on a sec um
we have intel next week with everything there that's on thursday another big one has had a
huge run and what are they going to say that's going to keep that needle moving right
and then you have a bunch of companies like jay day and schwab and 3m you know we're going to get
a nice idea of what's going on out there and what things look like i think it's a nice mix you got
png and ge is in there flumberger and halliburton in the energy space. So I think next week is a real nice week
where we're going to get just a good overall read
on the market and what's going on out there
across many different sectors.
I mean, you kind of, you have to like that.
So, you know, Netflix and Intel will give us,
you know, nice looks at some tech names.
So we consider Netflix really more of a media name
these days and everything else.
We'll get a look at some Dow components.
Alcoa's in there and FCX report as well well so we can look some of these metals which have been
going absolutely ballistic so look forward to it should give us a good idea and maybe give the
market a better idea where everything's at
all right thank you for that mr options mike what else is going on in your world besides earnings
any uh catalyst or anything right now i mean on ds has their investor day tomorrow so that's a
that should be pretty interesting so we'll be watching that to see what they had to say on that
um outside of that
I'm just kind of waiting we don't have any real data tomorrow
Then we have Monday's off. It's a holiday and then we'll see where we're at next week with earnings
Obviously, we're also waiting on the Supreme Court and tariffs
For whatever reason they keep hunting it. So, you know, we'll see when that comes in
Yeah, the week after next you get pretty crazy yeah um logical i know we didn't get the chance
to go over to you yesterday you want to go through and then we gotta like i've been hyping
this up new stock talk stock pick coming up 3 30 p.m eastern get excited logical what's going on
in your world uh not much you know i was really happy that uh stock talk uh is in the
synaptics trade it's the trade that i've been in uh about a month ago so i love that when him and
i are aligned and um yeah so that's a great name i think it'll do very well this year uh i guess
excited to hear uh what his next one is i think I saw his post about that earlier. I don't know.
It's been a busy day.
Really not much to say today other than obviously IWM new all-time high.
You know, even yesterday when SPY and Hughes were red, you had RSP green.
That breadth expansion rotation narrative continues to, you know, pretty much shine throughout. You want to see that,
I think it will provide, you know, longevity to this bull market if we can start to see more
things participate. I think like a clue for that is, you know, I'm sure, you know, a lot of us did
really well over the last couple of years in stock picking, you know, But the index was extremely strong SPY. It was up 18% last year, 24% the
year before, 23% the year before that. And remember 2023 was just MAG7. Point I'm trying
to make is that if you looked at the number of stocks in the S&P that actually outperformed the
S&P, it was actually a very small number of stocks. So when you looked at active managers' performance last year,
a majority of them underperformed.
So because, you know, the index is so strong
that it's being, you know, pushed higher by,
I wouldn't say a handful of names,
but like whatever it was,
30 or 40 names in the S&P that beat the index.
So if you're an active manager,
it becomes really tough to outperform.
So if you're an active manager right now, really tough to outperform. So if you're
an active manager right now, this is probably what you want to be seeing, which is a lot of
things are working. So it makes for a very good environment. I think, you know, it's kind of
interesting to see meta down below all its moving averages. You know, I think NVIDIA will probably
be strong for the next few quarters, given what we just saw out of TSM.
These guys are growing as fast as they can, and TSM is still growing fairly responsibly.
So I don't think anything is near a bubble situation at all.
This bull market might have more legs than people realized.
And I don't know, it just feels pretty healthy.
I'm happy that, you know,
we're getting a lot of different sectors contributing.
So you can have a fairly diversified portfolio right now
and feel pretty good about the upside returns.
That said, obviously, some of the outsized gains this year,
and I say this year as if it hasn't only been two weeks,
but man, we're off to the races early on.
IWM putting in new all-time highs
is actually not that surprising
when you realize that the top 10 holdings
are names like Bloom Energy,
which is up like, I don't know, 60% year to date.
So you're having a lot of these high beta names
really leading the way.
And so there's been outsized returns there for me personally you
know I thought bloom energy was pretty expensive at 80 but now it's at 145 so that's life in a bull
market at 145 you know if I felt 80 was maybe pushing it on the valuation side of 145 definitely
is but that's the tricky part about being in a very strong bull market and having some of these names and these themes is that, you know, what's the right valuation for them?
And I think that's the tough part to figure out.
And unless you think that there's like some sort of correction or bear market along the way, there's no reason for that valuation to have to come in.
So I wouldn't want to fight that trend.
I'm also, you know, I still have like a value
investing side to me. So there's a certain point where I'm just not willing to pay up,
uh, for those types of premiums. But clearly, you know, we've seen in the last year or two,
2024 was big time growth stocks like Palantir's, uh, lemonade, et cetera, 2025 as well.
If you kind of ignored valuation a little bit,
you were able to really have some high performance.
So, you know, not knocking that at all.
It's, you know, I have a different style, which is fine.
It causes me to miss some of those things,
but it also probably causes me to miss some of the corrections
that come on the other end of that.
Like, a lot of people probably were up a lot in Q3 of last year, like September, October.
Everyone was, you know, sharing their year-to-dates.
But then you get to November and December, and nobody shared a year-to-date performance.
So, it's a double-edged sword.
I'm sure those people still ended up doing really well on the year. I'm sure some people probably got, you know, bought calls at the highs or, you know, double down at the highs. And that's what really kills accounts. So I think just entries are important, especially when you're doing these high beta things, acknowledging when something moves a lot and gets expensive um and then i think like every person traders and not should have like an
understanding of like valuations and fundamentals and then yeah just i think again the point i'm
trying to drive home here is like entries are very important and so somebody who you know buys
something at support after a correction can end up having a bloom, uh, you know, bloom energy situation, uh, where
they just kind of ripped to the upside, but then buying at one 45 after that, that's a
tough, that's a tough game.
So, and I'm just using bloom energy.
There's countless examples, but so, uh, yeah, that's all.
Thank you for the rundown there, sir.
Stock talk.
I think it's, i think it's time has leo been walked
sounds like i'm getting him mid mid leo walk all right logical i'm gonna come back to you
not that you're my second choice definitely my first choice um we're already coming into
earning season here i know i talked about this last time but uh you know no biotechs coming up no mid caps or anything like that is there anything you're
interested in on the larger actually yeah um i heard mike mention netflix i didn't even realize
that they report on tuesday but they don't they do report on tuesday and i am long netflix
uh specifically i saw some options oh long netflix that feels a little that doesn't feel
like something i've heard you talk about too much. Yeah. I'm trying something lately, which is like, anytime I see more than $10 million of like options flow in something that looks interesting to me, like I'm willing to take a chance on it.
flow a week or so ago on Netflix, August 110, 130 call spreads. So they bought the 110,
sold the 130s for August. And I joined something similar to that. Not exactly that.
We'll see what happens on Tuesday. I mean, August gets you three earnings reports. And I think by
then the stock should kind of figure itself out. I went with the 100s instead of the 110s, but I still sold the 130s.
That makes me a little bit closer to the money.
But yeah, I mean, anytime I see like anything more than $10 million of calls and they're
a few months out, like I'll give some examples.
FXI, I came on these spaces and said, you know, FXI had $41 million of call premium
for the May 40s.
Those things are up over 50% now. KWeb had $19 million of calls for the 40s on August. Those
are up a lot. I saw Alibaba calls the other day when it was at $150. It was like two months out,
way out of the money. You've seen what Alibaba has done it's gone crazy a few months ago i saw merc calls april's for the hundred dollar
strikes i think that stock's above 110 now so i mean just i i've just been seeing this and if i
see that kind of flow i'm just kind of interested and so that's the kind of flow i saw on netflix
so just on principle i gotta take a
swing there so we'll see what happens i mean um what am i expecting i have no clue man i have no
idea what i'm doing in this large cap i don't really do large caps but um yeah i mean netflix
beaten down 35 whatever percent it's a household name i i think you know people will tell me oh
it's you know it's not that cheap here it's and i will you know kind of push back and say one it'll never be cheap and two um it's a consumer staple business those typically trade around 30 p.e.
uh it's not a consumer discretionary by any means nobody's canceling their netflix it's
20 bucks a month and it gives them hope in life i swear um so i think you know some of these
technology companies are really becoming the new age, the modern staples,
like maybe like the Proctors and Gambles before they just became 2% growers with dividend payments.
Like you're kind of catching that.
So I'm willing to take a swing on it.
I'm not going to say it's super high conviction at all,
but let's,
let's see where it goes.
I mean,
it's quite beaten down and obviously the Warner Bros deal has been kind of
this overhang and with Paramount,
but yeah, I'm not overthinking it too much.
I'm just kind of letting it rip.
As for other things, I don't think we have that many interesting earnings this coming week.
I think it's the week after that we get Mega Cap Tech.
So I'm not really getting ahead of myself.
Obviously, you want to see Mega Cap Tech come out and say AI is going well and spending continues to stay high.
And today you saw the TSM, I think they raised their CapEx guide to a very high number, 52 billion or something.
So, you know, it's tough to get bearish on the AI story when, you know, the source of it all is telling you that they're spending more money right now.
So, and I think the way TSM management has been doing things is they've been doing it in a very sustainable way.
They actually want to avoid booms and busts.
So I think they've been pretty reasonable in everything that they've been doing.
So, yeah, I don't expect any surprises this earnings season.
Now, day-to-day, week-to-week volatility is anyone's guess at this point,
but we had a fairly big correction in an overall strong and resilient bull market
in November, December.
And I think we basically consolidated and digested the moves that we had from, you know, summer to fall.
We digested those moves in winter.
We had the 5% correction in November.
Those are fairly normal.
You know, you have those, you have 5% corrections, I think, three times a year on average.
So I don't, I think there's like some stats that say you have the 5% correction
and make a new all time high shortly after, then you probably won't get another correction for
the next three months or so. So I'm not expecting any corrections in the market anytime near, but
yeah, maybe, you know, I think when you look at trend following in the market,
you have these kind of months where you see nice performance
and you grind higher. And then you have these months of just consolidation and digestion.
And so the goal is to make money on the upside, on those next legs up, and then to not lose too
much money on the consolidation phases. And so I think we just got done with the consolidation
phase. We're kind of working on this grind higher. So, you know, my goal is to
continue to ride the grind higher. And then eventually when we get to consolidation phase,
maybe take down some risks. But in the near term, I don't really see anything that's too
concerning. The market backdrop is extremely bullish. And I don't know, I'm not really
too concerned about anything. It just seems like we should get good numbers. And the setup is a lot better going into this earnings than it was, you know,
the last earnings or two.
I think the last earnings or two, we, we ripped really hard off the April lows
to, you know, July, August.
And then we ripped really hard from into the October, you know, prints of the Q3
earnings, November, you know, it was brutal.
I think people, Stock Talk always says,
look left and see what the stock has done going into this print. I think you had seen that a lot
of stocks had climbed a lot. And when the prices go higher, the market caps are larger and the
valuations are more expensive. And that sets up a very bad setup into the print. So I don't think
we have necessarily that right now. Although I would argue that again,
going back to my original point, last thing,
names like Blue Energy or, you know,
human Kratos that I looked at today,
I know that's a stock stock name,
but that thing has just been insane vertical.
You know, it's very expensive, which is fine.
It doesn't matter, but,
and maybe people won't care on the print,
but it makes the print a little bit of a harder setup. That's all
All right stock talk it's cracking now. I think we're I think we're at a good point. Okay, how are we doing sir?
I'm excited to to hear what the stock pick is for the play. Yeah, we're doing fantastic.
Maybe also you give a quick run through of what yesterday is.
Yeah, I'll touch on that too.
Yeah, I mean, it's been a very, very hot start to the year.
Probably my hottest start ever.
I don't know.
A 44% year to date already.
15 days into the year, 10 trading days.
They've come for pretty much all my stocks.
I have like seven names up over 50% year to date already.
Positioning is important headed into a new year.
I value portfolio clarity a lot, you know, going into a new year.
Coming into December of last year, I lowered my position exposure from about 22 positions down to 14.
All 14 of those have either held up or performed extremely well for the first 10 sessions of the year.
Two of them were big winners that we just exited very, very early in the year.
And then the rest I'm still hanging on to.
Yesterday, I covered Synaptics in quite a bit of detail.
I spent about four months researching this name, talking to industry experts,
talking to executives at the company, and finally decided to get into that name.
So if you're interested in Synaptic, sticker S-Y-N-A,
you can go back to the Stocks on Spaces page, which is the host,
and scroll to yesterday.
We actually split yesterday's episode into two one-hour segments
because Evan accidentally closed it, but they're all there.
They're recorded, and they're there.
So you can go back and listen to yesterday's
episodes. If you are interested in hearing the thesis on SYNA, which is synaptics, you can listen
to the first recording from yesterday. It's about an hour long. If you forward in about 20 minutes,
that's when I start talking. So if you're interested in that, go check it out. That is
a pretty high conviction position for me, probably something i'll be holding for the entire year um today we opened another one
um you guys will be hearing a lot more new positions for me in the next couple of weeks
because q1 is where i throw a lot of darts um so you know i have about 13 to 14 positions in
the pipe right now i'm not going to open them all, but you know,
there's a high likelihood I'll open five or six of them in the next month or so next two months
or so. So, uh, stay tuned for that. But today we opened another one. Um, one of the themes that
not a lot of people were talking about last year that we were involved in was the shipbuilding theme, um, which was a very, very, very good theme to be involved in last year. The core name that
I bought was Huntington Ingalls, which we bought in the low 200s that stocks now in the low 400s.
So it's basically doubled, you know, it's not a meme stock. It is a legacy aerospace and defense
stock that's been public for a very, very, very long time.
It's been public since 2009.
So we got into that, and it's on a historic breakout over this last year.
And I still own it in a lot more size, actually, than last year because the waiting has risen so dramatically.
They just signed on to a $ dollar contract uh this week as the key
subcontractor um so you know i don't think that stock's uh going anywhere but i wanted to get
more um exposure to the shipbuilding phenomenon and to um the idea of maritime expansion, U.S. naval expansion, because that's a theme that I think
is not fleeting. I think for the next few years, you're going to see a major, major
real policy shift towards naval expansion. I mean, the Trump class battleship is just one
component of that, but I expect there to be a lot of attention there. So I've talked a little bit about this before,
um, on this space and discord and other places, the idea of dredging, um, no, that is not preparing
chicken to be fried. Uh, although that was the guest that a lot of people made when, uh, when
I brought it up, but, uh, dredging is the excavation of sediment silt debris from the bottom
of bodies of water right rivers lakes harbors and it's a very very intensive process it's not
something that you can just go and decide to be a contract dredger. Most of these guys have very, very specific regulation constraints,
and they also have very, very specific qualifying constraints
because they work with U.S. military largely,
and they also work with the U.S. on civilian dredging as well,
not just on aerospace and defense-related dredging as well, not just on aerospace and defense related dredging. So
that is kind of the concept of what dredging is. Now, when I was looking into the space,
I found that there was basically no publicly traded exposures, very, very few.
About 65% of the United States dredging market is controlled by three companies.
5% of the United States dredging market is controlled by three companies.
Those are Weeks Marine, Manson Construction, and the third, which is the only publicly traded one of the three, is Great Lakes Dredge and Dock, ticker GLDD.
So we opened that position this morning.
It's obviously up quite a bit now.
My alert moved the stock, certainly, but it's up about 13% today.
But I got in this morning at around 13 and got in some 1395 and got in some contracts as well for March.
The 12.5 calls would ruin the money.
I plan to hold this at least through the next earnings, maybe longer.
We'll see. It's not a core position. Yesterday, Synaptics, when I brought it up, there is a chance
that will become a core position. It's not a core position, but it is a higher conviction trade
on the same thematic. Now, when you look at dredging, the thing that you should be focused on, really, in my opinion, are a couple of policy initiatives.
The first you should be looking at is the Foreign Dredge Act.
The second is the Jones Act.
And the third is the Trump 2025 executive order from April, which was titled Restoring America's Maritime Dominance.
Now, the focus of that executive order was obviously on shipbuilding, on U.S. military shipbuilding.
But it was also framed as a maritime industrial base program.
And so if you went through the executive order last year, one thing you would have seen is that
they had included an assessment of investment options to expand the maritime industrial base,
which explicitly
includes port infrastructure and maritime port access. One of the projects we found out about
last year that was expanding was the Philadelphia port, which is going to see major expansions this
year and next year. In order to expand a port, you need to dredge. In order to expand a waterway
for larger ships, you need to dredge. And so this is really a picks and shovels enabling component of maritime expansion.
And the idea of large ships, more large ships being built, more large ships being docked, more large ships being used is directly correlated to growth in the dredging business.
to growth in the dredging business. And so for me, I wanted direct exposure to dredging,
because it's kind of a winner agnostic way to play the expansion of not only US maritime,
but the expansion of the United States Navy. And I went through several options. But in terms of
pure play exposures, there were really only two, which was Great Lakes,
Dredge and Dock, the one that we opened, GLDD, and then Orion ORN. Now, the issue I found with
Orion was that A, it was a little bit too expensive for me, it's turning like a 35 PE,
and also that they have way too much energy exposure and not enough pure play maritime
exposure. So that's what made me choose GLDD over Orion. Again, those are the only two publicly
traded options. And also added a very, very, very strong chart going into this. For valuation side,
the stock is just cheap. It trades at a 12 PE, 11 forward PE, 1.2X sales, 8 EV over EBITDA.
And they're posting 13% sales growth and 50% EPS growth year over
year. I expect the sales growth to accelerate this year, as does the company themselves.
I expect them to accelerate to 20% plus sales growth this year. EPS growth will probably
moderate down to about 40%. But if you're growing top line 20%, bottom line 40%, and you're trading
at eight X EV over EBITDA with direct exposure to a thematic um industry i think that that's straight up just cheap um and you know i think you will see a
multiple expansion here uh potentially dramatic multiple expansion as we saw with huntington
ingles which you know doubled in less than a year so um i expect there to be quite a bit of
multiple expansion here especially if they can can prove that the pathway through maritime expansion is going to go through them, which I think there's a high likelihood of considering they're one of the top three dredgers in the United States and the only publicly traded one of the top three.
So, yeah, it's a pretty simple, straightforward thesis.
I mean, you know, I could talk for longer about it, but I mean, that's really what it is. Uh, the one, the one risk here is their offshore wind exposure
because Trump hates wind energy, but it's only 7% of their total backlog. So I think relative
to the overall business, it's not an issue, but more importantly than that, um, recently there
have been some judges that have overruled a lot
of the cancellation of these offshore wind projects. There was a Reuters report
published literally today, uh, about a federal judge allowing Equinor to restart empire wind.
And that was kind of my trigger to say, all right, let's get into the stock today. Because last year in December 2025, so really just a month ago,
U.S. administration reported suspension of those leases.
And now we have three judges overriding the suspension of those leases.
There will also be Revolution Wind, which comes on online in about two weeks.
So I think that minimizes the risk to their offshore wind business,
even though it's only 7% of the backlog. And I also think that, you know, considering dredging
is basically 90% of their business, dredging and maritime construction is 90% of their business,
that it's about as pure play exposure as you can get to that area. So yeah, stock is cheap.
area. So yeah, stock is cheap. It's thematically relevant. It is directly linked to three major
policy initiatives in the Foreign Dredging Act, the Jones Act, and the executive order signed by
Trump last year. And I also think that perhaps most compellingly, they have the most capable
vessels in the United States for dredging purposes. They have a new vessel coming online.
Pretty soon they're building the Acadia vessel,
which is described as the first and only Jones Act qualified SRI vessel
that's going to be constructed in the United States.
So I think they have a lot of unique qualities to the company.
And I think even without that thematic exposure,
it's a pretty, pretty smart investment.
So I liked this name a lot
and decided to jump into it today.
And yeah, plan to hold it for the foreseeable future.
But yeah, that's Great Lakes Dredge & Dock,
ticker GLDD.
The position I opened yesterday was Synaptics,
ticker SYNA.
They have nothing to do with each other,
but they are in the vein of two of the biggest themes that i think are going to be active this year which is
maritime expansion naval expansion and on-device inference so um yeah that's that's the new position
we did a pretty great run through right there if anyone has any questions that we want to go in and ask, you kind of the two of the
ones that I had set up from your group, I think you kind of went in there and answered
a little bit.
One of them was around how much of their government contract, how much of their business is from
government contracts.
And the other one was around competitive analysis and the other competitors.
When I was looking into this, there was one other name that seemed to be playing in space.
I didn't dig deep enough to know like the personal nuances there and then the other question was kind of around
if there's any catalyst or any kind of stuff that is going forward i know that hii the contract that
they were a sub contract that was some contract of 150 billion dollar contract i'd imagine that
would impact this one but you kind of answer to both of those. I don't know if there was any thoughts from that.
Yeah.
So, yeah, like I said, there are, it's a pretty fragmented industry, but it is top heavy.
So Weeks Marine and Manson Construction are the two biggest competitors.
Neither of them are publicly traded.
They have a smaller competitor called Orion, but it's unreasonably expensive for the fact that they're not as competitive
and there's too much energy exposure for me to get the pure play feel that I want from them.
So there are a handful of competitors,
but again, from the publicly traded lens, which is what I'm focused on,
there aren't really, I mean, there's really only two stocks, GLDD and ORN,
and I think GLDD is better in every way. They're more capable. They're more reasonably priced. They're growing
faster and they have much more impressive vessels. And when you look at the Jones Act and the Foreign
Dredging Act, like foreign vessels cannot dredge in the United States. This is a very important
thing to understand like
they are not you can't it doesn't even matter if a u.s company owns the vessels or is contracted
with the vessels foreign vessels cannot dredge u.s waterways or u.s ports it's not allowed
it's been banned and there's a reason there's reasons for this, right, that, you know, you could sabotage U.S. marine infrastructure.
You know, if you had a strong enough link or if China wanted to bring a Chinese dredging vessel in the United States and, you know, one of the operators was working with the Chinese government or whatever, you could literally sabotage U.S. naval infrastructure.
sabotage U.S. naval infrastructure. So it's not allowed. And Great Lakes Dredge and Dock is like
So it's not allowed.
a very American flag flying type of company. Like if you listen to all the commentary from their
executives, they are very America first. I mean, the construction of the Acadia vessel was largely
because they wanted to be Jones Act compliant and Foreign Dredging Act compliant. So they kind of fit everything I'm looking for,
which is domestic enthusiasm, capable vessels, reasonable valuation, fast growth. And they've
been involved in a lot of projects, not only for General Dynamics and HII, but for basically all
U.S. naval entities. They've had contracts with the U.S. Navy, the DOD, the U.S. Army.
They've had commercial contracts with basically every major builder of anything near water.
And with the Philly port expansion, it's highly likely they will win a part of that award.
Highly, highly likely based on my research.
So, yeah, I mean, there are competitors, not many publicly traded ones. The only publicly traded one there is, I think this is far and
above superior in every single category. And so yeah, that, that sort of should answer your
question. I don't know what the exact percentage is of government contracts for them, but it's
very, very high. It's probably North of 70%, North of 80% for the government contracts for them. I
don't know the exact percentage though what does the international landscape of this market look like i know
obviously you'd want u.s exposure to this one but like is that something that you kind of looked
ever at what this looks like around the world my best guess would be china i mean yeah china has a
lot of dredging vessels the the market's not as fragmented in China as it is in the United States.
Same thing with Europe.
The Europeans don't really care if an Italian vessel dredges for Germany or whatever.
The European Union sort of operates like that, so they don't really care.
But the Americans do care, and that's an important distinction. Like, I mean, all of the amazing
picks that I've made over the last year have largely been in this vein of trying to play
domestic capability, right? I mean, everything from Amcor to Centrist Energy to, I mean,
everything, Kratos, everything. I mean, I go down my whole portfolio list.
It's all just U.S. flag flying companies.
And what I'm trying to emphasize really through my portfolio construction is the idea that
I don't think this thematic is going anywhere for the remainder of this presidency at all.
And, you know, you can sit there and say, well, these are obvious trades.
Well, there's money to be made.
I mean, these stocks have all doubled last year.
And I think many of them are going to double again this year.
So, you know, it's easy to sit on the sidelines and be like, well, Trump talks about shipbuilding all the time.
Seems like an obvious trade.
Yeah, well, it was an obvious trade in February of last year, too.
And HIA was one of the best performing stocks in the aerospace and defense industry and is one of the best performing stocks in the aerospace and defense industry this year too i mean evan was bringing up the top performing
stocks in the sb 500 yesterday and i think what hii was number seven or something um so it gives
you a good idea of where the enthusiasm is headed into this year right i think a lot of people write
off uh the first three weeks of action in a year i do the opposite i pay very close attention to the stocks that are super performing in the first three weeks of action in a year, I do the opposite. I pay very close attention to
the stocks that are super performing in the first three weeks of the year, because that's when
institutions are putting money to work. You know, these guys have done their tax write-offs already.
They've done their tax loss selling. You know, when stocks move 50% in three weeks,
the first three weeks of the year, fading that is a dangerously stupid thing to do.
Um, that the market is literally telling you where the money's going.
So I do the opposite of that.
I pay close attention to the super performers in the first three weeks of the year,
and then I layer onto them, right?
I mean, even with the edge compute theme, which I talked about yesterday with Synaptics and OSS,
I mean, OSS has absolutely ripped this year.
We were in at 471 in November.
And now everyone's talking about it on Twitter as if they came up with the idea at $10.
It's hilarious to me.
But that stock's more than doubled.
I'm up 128% on shares on that.
And when I saw that kind of performance, I'm like, okay, I need more on-device compute exposure. So then I opened Synaptics.
And then I see HII, you know, whatever it is up 50% this year or whatever.
I was like, I need more shipbuilding exposure.
And so I went directly into this dredging theme.
So, well, not a theme yet, but I think it will be.
So, yeah, that's how I think about stocks.
I think about stocks in terms of like, where is the money flow?
Where is the theme?
Where is the policy initiative?
And where are the reasonably priced stocks that can go up not just a little bit, but go up a lot?
And that's like my sort of MO in a nutshell.
I'm a thematic trader and investor.
I will follow the themes always.
And so I think this year there's some really,
really promising themes on the horizon.
And my portfolio construction is going to follow closely along with those.
How do you kind of go about finding those new themes? Like,
I'd be curious what the start of their research looks like.
Thinking. Yeah, it's just thinking.
But is it a lot of stuff from like orders that comes in and makes you think about it? Or is
there like normally a thing in it? Or is it kind of just like life kind of drives it away?
Yeah, I mean, it's just, it's just observation, right? Like, I mean,
there's no process by which to identify themes. I think identifying themes is actually the easiest part.
The hard part is the stock picking, but identifying themes is very easy. I mean,
you know where the money's going, you know where the top performing stocks are,
you know what Trump's saying, if you pay attention. I mean, he doesn't make it hard
to follow what he's saying. He posts everything on Truth Social.
Follow what the president of the United States is saying.
Follow where the executive orders and policy actions are indicating, where the money is flowing, where the top performing stocks are.
And try to wedge yourself into those themes with reasonably priced names that still have room to go higher, both fundamentally and technically.
That is a formula for success in markets and you know i'm sure this year when we're six months in
people will be like oh wow i wish i would have bought those stocks at the start of the year but
i don't buy stocks willy-nilly i don't buy you know 10 new names a month or anything you know i
i try to stay focused this month. I will be active. And the
next month I will be very active because in Q1, that's what I do. I throw darts and then Q2,
Q3, we'll find out what sticks and I'll stick with what sticks and Q3, Q4, I'll wrap some positions
up and, you know, keep some into the next year. And that's what I do every single year. So,
you know, keep some into the next year. That's what I do every single year. So,
yeah, I think this name probably trends higher. It's headed here into all-time highs.
I think you'll see some resistance around that 16 to 1630 area. Maybe you'll see a little bit
of rejection there and then some consolidation, but I expect this to break past all-time highs
this year. And I'm looking for other names that I expect to do the same.
You know, a lot of people look at stocks that are at all-time highs and they go, well, I missed it.
You know, it ran too much. And I think the opposite. I think stocks breaking out of all-time
highs that are forcing a re-rating that are thematically relevant are some of the best
performers. So yeah, that doesn't make me shy away from this at all. And even HII was red this morning.
He's now flipped green.
He's going to probably close the day up about a percent.
The stock's pushing $420 a share now.
I mean, we got in at $210 last year.
So yeah, I feel very good and very confident about where the portfolio is headed and the exposure that I have.
Not to mention my largest position, ENS, just seems to go up every single day.
So that's helping as well.
But yeah, very, very, very hot start to the year.
It does make me a little, not cautious, but it does make me a little, you know, maybe
nervous about how quickly some things have moved, but it is what it is. I mean, I can't be mad at
it. Um, you know, it's paying me very well. So, um, I'm not, I'm not deterred by that.
Log.
Logical. Um, you want to, do you have any thoughts what Stock Talk was talking about this thesis here?
Yeah, I mean, I think shipbuilding makes a lot of sense, especially when we've got that
news from the White House that they want to do a lot more of that. So there's a lot of money
flowing through that sector. I actually do have a shipbuilder stock, but it's very, very, very small
market cap. So I'll refrain from saying it in this
spaces just because it's it actually trades over the counter. And so it's quite illiquid.
And so but I do just generally agree with having some shipbuilder exposure.
It's been a long time. It's been over a decade since there was any president that wanted to expand U.S. maritime capacity, expand U.S. waterways, expand U.S. ports and build more ships.
It's been a decade, over a decade.
And in the Obama administration, there was some commentary about this, but it was never really acted on.
There were no executive policy initiatives taken. There were no laws passed. It's the opposite this time. There have been laws passed and there's
been executive action taken. And so I think it's real. And it's the same thing with like the nuclear
energy theme, right? Like I think a lot of people discarded that theme for a decade plus because
there was no real commitment to it from either side of the political aisle. And it's part of the reason I still haven't sold centrist energy because I believe it's the best
nuclear exposure on the planet. And, you know, I don't care that it's volatile. I still hold it.
I mean, that stock's back to what, 300 plus dollars now too. So, you know, we got it at 96.
So I am a conviction driven guy. You know, I stay with stuff even when it starts getting a little expensive.
If I think the uniqueness and the thematic relevance is still there, I stick with it.
Now, I don't buy some of these names like I haven't bought Centris in a while.
I've been bought Kratos in a while.
I've bought these stocks recently because they are expensive.
But it's different for me to hold something at a much lower cost basis than it is to buy it at nosebleed levels.
And so I try to continue to rotate into names that I think are reasonably priced.
I think GLDD is very reasonably priced.
I think Synaptics, which we got into yesterday, is very reasonably priced.
And so when I find these names are reasonably priced, thematically relevant, I just jump on them.
And they're not all going to work.
But, I mean, my track record
sort of speaks for itself. You know, we most of my ideas work very well. And it's largely due to
the fact that I do a lot of research. I don't do like two or three days of research. I do weeks or
months of research to try to really, really localize the exposure and find the best pure
play optionality possible. And that tends to serve me well.
So that's the same game plan for this year.
Dr. Toc, is there something that pushed you over the edge in getting into this play?
Yeah, it was this recent news about these judges overriding the offshore wind cancellations.
That was part of it.
And also just the technical setup.
This morning, I was like watching this thing like a hawk because these last couple of days
it had given me signs that it wanted to take off from this 9 EMA.
And then today it was pushing into the top of the local range around that 1380 spot.
And then I saw it break that 1380 spot intraday.
So I got in 1395.
And then, you know, here we get this this nice beautiful candle breaking out over the 14 spot um there's going to be some
consolidation here i mean this is the highest volume stocks posted in like six years or something
um so yeah i mean we're pushing into now the local highs from 22. I expect some consolidation here.
And then I do expect the stock to rip through 1630 and make new highs into the middle of the year.
So that's my expectation.
Obviously, things can change based on price action, based on how the markets go.
But that is what I'm expecting from this name.
I expect new all-time highs as more of this shipbuilding stuff gains momentum. And if you look at the
Trump-class battleship preparations, a lot of those preparations involve expansion of U.S. ports
because our aircraft carriers are active, right? Our aircraft carriers are generally deployed to project power globally.
Our battleships will not be used in the same way.
And so those battleships need to be docked, and they need to be able to transit domestic U.S. waterways.
And that requires dredging.
It just does. That is like the first thing it requires.
And so this is about as picks and shovels as you get.
The funny thing is quite literally picks and shovels because you're removing sentiment from the bottom of waterways.
But yeah, it's a very picks and shovels exposure.
People aren't going to see it as as sexy of a stock as some of the tech stocks that I get into, but that's okay.
I mean, I think there's still a tremendous amount of opportunity here.
I think there's a pretty reasonable scenario in which the stock
could just double. I mean, if this stock doubled, it'd be trading at a 22 PE and be trading at
16 times EV over EBITDA, growing top line 20%, bottom line 50%. I mean, that's not unreasonable.
I mean, you look around the market at these thematic stocks. I mean, it's not even a remotely unreasonable valuation.
So, yeah, I think as people see the thematic connection here and associate it more with shipbuilding and really a necessary component of shipbuilding and maritime expansion, I think the stock will continue to catch a bit.
So that is my thinking on that one. And again, if you missed the synaptics pitch from yesterday, go back and listen to the recordings on the stocks on spaces page and talk
for talked about it for about 45 minutes.
Stock talk.
Were there any other like interesting news stories,
themes or anything that came up today that you were,
it was catching your eye? Um, not too much. Um, I did see Wells Fargo raise their synaptics
price target to a hundred this morning. Maybe they're in our discord. Um, but I'm just kidding.
Uh, but they did, I saw a couple of other reports that were, you know, sort of interesting,
but nothing that really caught my eye.
There was a Morgan Stanley report on Amplitude that I read that was kind of interesting,
but that stock has not treated me well in the past, so I don't know if I want to go back into that.
I am looking at a couple of things right now in the drone supply chain, although it's sort of annoying me because most of the drone supply chain names are just broader electronics manufacturers and
they're too diversified for me to like bite the bullet on on the diversification i don't like
diversification in the business model like i i like diversification my portfolio i mean i own
stocks across a vast variety of different sectors and themes, but I don't like diversification
when I'm picking a stock.
I don't want the stock to have 12 different businesses because it inhibits the pure play
relationship, right?
Pure play relationships are what drive the fastest multiple expansion.
And what I mean by that is like when you have a theme, a very specific theme, and a stock
is almost purely related to that theme, it doesn't require a lot of enthusiasm for the stock to skyrocket in relation to that theme.
Because the multiple can very quickly double.
If the multiple doubles, the stock's going to double.
And that doesn't take a lot of effort if you're thematically relevant and if you're also pure play enough.
You have to be enough
of a pure play if you have 30 of your business exposed to the theme it's unlikely the market's
going to give you credit for that if you have 70 of your business exposed to the theme you have a
much better shot and so that's what i try to look for pure play exposure is a very very important
thing to me um across the board i mean even when i was looking for packaging pure play exposure
amcor is about as close as you can get to that, which is why I ended up
opening Amcor last year. And so, yeah, that's how I think about all stocks and all themes is I want
to get as close to PurePlay as possible. And sometimes it's not possible to get 90% exposure,
but 65% plus is sort of my barometer. If you have have over 65 of your business exposed to a single sector a
single theme i count that as pure play enough and the higher it goes the better but um anywhere in
that 65 to 90 range i think is is pure play how do you kind of go about finding these like like
obviously we want the pure play exposures but like nebius is one that has multiple different exposures and i feel like it's a little bit nebius
is maybe a little bit of a different one than some of these other ones like yeah i saw some
story about click house uh about their valuation it was yeah yeah no go keep going no i was gonna
say click house there i thought something they were maybe raising at 25 billion maybe it was 15
billion maybe it's 15 billion and they own% of it is what I was saying.
Yeah.
So I think they own a little bit more than that.
But I don't know what their exact residual ownership is.
But, yeah, Nebius is a very different play.
It's not a pure play type of play.
That is a diversified play where you have investments in ClickHouse,
Coloka, their data analysis business.
They have a
cloud business as well like they're very very diversified company so yeah that is not a pure
play but it is a stock i still like i mean i haven't bought any of it recently at all i mean
i bought it last may at 24 bucks i'm still holding it though it is still part of the portfolio um
but yeah um finding career play exposure is really just about research,
like actually understanding the companies and understanding the industry. You know,
a lot of times when I come up and talk about things like dredging or, you know, yesterday
I talked about on-device inference and like, I get questions a lot, like, how do you know so much
about this? And it's like, I initially didn't know anything about either of these industries,
right? But it just learned. It's all it is. Like I just sat down for weeks and studied and most people are unwilling to do that
component of the research that people just want the stocks. So people are like looking for stocks
and then they try to research the stock. But you have no hope of researching a stock if you don't
understand the industry. I firmly believe that. And a lot of people on Twitter think they can, but it's just not true. Like if you don't understand the industry. I firmly believe that. And a lot of people on Twitter think they can,
but it's just not true.
Like, if you don't understand the industry,
the competitors, the standard margins,
the standard of profitability, the standard of growth,
you need to know these things
so that you can look at the stock and say,
is it impressive or not?
You know, you can find a stock sometimes,
I see this all the time on Twitter,
somebody will find a stock with like a 50% gross margin. They'll be like, I love the
gross margins. And I'm like, dude, the average gross margin of that industry is 62%.
So what, then it's not impressive, right? Or if you see a stock growing at, you know, 15%
year over year, and then you look at its peers and they're, they're growing, they're all growing
at 20% year over year. Well, that's not really a point of differentiation is it or if you you know you think
that the company has a compelling product and then you go and do industry research and you look at
the products of their competitors and you're like oh it's the same fucking thing it's just rebranded
well that's not compelling is it so it's it's that type of research that puts you ahead of the pack because people are unwilling to do that type of industry, deep industry level research.
So in my view, the order that you should go when picking stocks is theme first, then understand the industry that's related to the theme and then venture to pick the stocks.
And if you do that, you will be a better stock picker.
I promise you, you will be a better stock picker. I promise you,
you will be. And you'll find more unique opportunities that people aren't talking
about. I mean, over and over again, when I pick stocks, it's just not many people talking about
them. And I like that because I'd rather be in at half the price. And then when everyone's talking
about it, it's double the price, just like OSS now where, I don't know, you search OSS now and everybody and their mother
is talking about it.
Back in November when I bought it at $4.70,
no one was talking about it.
You search the ticker, you'd have like one or two pages
talking about it.
So I prefer to be ahead of the herd,
and the reason that's our slogan.
And it gives you a cost-based advantage,
it gives you flexibility on the position,
and it also reduces your stress of saying, oh, my God, I bought the stock up here.
What could happen?
And every 5% pullback gives you a headache.
I don't get stressed on pullbacks in any of my positions because I have deep cost-based
advantages on all of them.
So, yeah, cost-based advantage is important.
And how you get there is through really, really disciplined research,
top down, always, always top down, never bottom up, bottom up, you're going to be
littered with confirmation bias. If you, if you pick a stock, try to learn the company and then
learn the industry and then figure out the theme, you're just confirming your bias. You know,
you're going to make excuses for the company on behalf of the
industry or the theme because you picked it already. So don't do that. You know, pick the
stocks after you know what's going on. And for some of you, you may be unwilling to do that.
You may not have the time to do that. I get it. You know, you could sub to my service instead and
just read the research. But for those of you that do want to be stock pickers of your own caliber and like, you know, want to feed yourselves, that's how you do proper research is top down always in stocks because it reduces your tendency to confirm your bias if you go top-down
because then you start starting with a broader view and you're basing your
stock picking off of the deductions that you made about the industry you know as
opposed to the other way around so yeah that's something I strongly strongly
strongly encourage people to do
stock talk is there any like i think we're going to come to the end of this one
uh i appreciate everyone for joining us stockdown spaces obviously we're live
every single monday through thursday this one i'm traveling a little bit so it's a little bit weird
for me uh i apologize for that stock talk i want to make sure that we got out that another one of the picks
awesome guy as always awesome says we got two new stock picks this week from stock talk
so uh shout out to you for that one uh yesterday was also a really great day of lessons for anyone
who doesn't know these spaces are always recorded you can come in and listen to the back especially
this one and the other ones a little logical as well and give you another chance to talk, but Stock Talk,
is there any lessons, anything you want to leave the people
with? Obviously, January is an interesting
time, so I don't know if there's anything coming
out of this as well, but yeah.
Stock markets close on Monday for the record as well.
But yeah.
I forgot about that.
Right? Oh, dude, I forgot
the markets close on Monday. Damn it.
Okay. Well, there's some things I wanted to buy on monday i may have to buy them tomorrow okay interesting so i'm curious of like because like i feel like some people just make a move the
same day going into it like i'm curious of like i don't know you plan your stuff out more than a
lot of people which i don't think is a coincidence, obviously.
But even just that comic kind of does it.
Yeah, I do try to plan things. I mean, I don't plan like when I want to enter a position.
What I do is I have a couple of things. So I run.
These are just going to be funny names because people are going to be wondering. Doc Tuck, you muted. do
do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do
do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do do Just try to stay bullish. There will be drops along the way, I'm sure.
But for right now, it seems fine.
There's a lot to like in the market,
but a lot of other things that have run a lot
and they look, in my view,
like, So look outside of what has generally been working.
I think that there's going to be a lot of things that work this year.
So just find the value where you can find it.
I continue to shift exposure around based on where I see value. Like I said, I was shifting more into tech,
but now tech's caught an insane bit and rallied a lot.
So now I'm finding value in the other places that got ignored.
I'm looking back at the bios.
So that's what I'm doing personally.
Any other parts of the market you're interested in right now, mostly?
I actually have a good amount of diversification in my portfolio.
Like I said, I was long China.
I still like emerging markets.
I still think that there's some stuff there like the Jumia chart looks freaking beautiful.
So I really like that name.
And then I have actually dabbled into maybe getting more crypto exposure.
This recent rally does look a little bit more sustainable.
So if Bitcoin gets going and Ethereum gets going, then that definitely helps with risk
on sentiment.
So I wouldn't count them out.
I'm trying MicroStrategy for his trade as a Bitcoin proxy for the time being.
I also really liked Galaxy Digital's press release today.
I don't know if anyone follows this name, but GLXY.
It's another name that has been tied to the crypto theme
because they have a crypto exchange
and they have a crypto asset on their balance sheet.
But they've been getting into the data center space.
And before, they had 800 megawatts of energy
already leased out, contracted with CoreWeave.
And just today they got their second 830 megawatts of energy approved through ERCOT in Texas.
So I think that's going to be a major catalyst.
I was surprised that the stock was only up like 5% in the morning.
So I actually entered on that, re-entered I should say, because I've traded this one quite a bit.
And then the stock went and finished like, I don't know, plus 12% on the day.
But I think if you think about it, like that's kind of the catalyst that the bulls were waiting for. because I've traded this one quite a bit. And then the stock went and finished like, I don't know, plus 12% on the day.
But I think if you think about it, like that's kind of the catalyst that the bulls were waiting
for was to get more energy so that they can start to, yeah, end of the day 13.5%.
This company has been waiting to get that energy approval so that they can lease out
more of their data centers. So I'd expect that that 830 new megawatts
that just came online for them, for their build,
will probably get a contract soon.
And I'm imagining they're gonna hold out
for a legit hyperscaler this time.
So we'll see who ends up signing the contract with them,
but I think that can be pretty big.
Sorry, I'm back on. Thank back for that logical. Where's your
portfolio right now? Long short wise, obviously long, long
wise. I think I'm like 126% long. But you know, I shift
exposure around a lot. And I have like, an 11% position in
this one biotech that I think could get bought out any day now.
And so if that gets bought out, then that'll bring my... I don't know if you're talking, but I cannot hear you.
Can anyone else hear me?
I think it's on my hand.
I can hear you, yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Can we have you back, Dr. Todd?
Yep, I'm back.
Abivax, that's the one?
No, it's actually RVMD.
I'm still along Abivax, but that thing is just super volatile.
Every day there's ridiculous...
I think some of these news sources are actually compromised
and there's people pumping them for their weekly stock options.
It's kind of crazy.
I think Abivax, you got to be a little bit more patient with it.
But right now it's back in the 110s.
I think that's probably going to get acquired above 200 this year. So I'm
not really too concerned. There might be some near term weakness as momentum traders blow
out of the stock. It's not a real big issue to me. I would actually welcome lower prices
because I would love to double the size of my position.
So yeah, I'm cool with momentum traders being out of that one. I mean, the CEO has sold
biotech companies before they have like a best in class asset. I mean, M&A is really aggressive right now in the bio world. So
it's like one of the best, you know, assets to probably buy out. And Eli Lilly has already shown
interest. It's been pretty vocal about that. So yeah, I think eventually they'll probably buy them
out, but they might wait for maintenance data, which is a few months out. But a lot of the
traders in the stock probably won't wait. So I could see near term
weakness, but that would be an opportunity. The biggest position that I have right now
is actually called RVMD. That one basically had a headline where AbbVie dropped out of
the bidding war. And we've seen bidding wars in the background. And Merck, there was like
a Wall Street Journal and Financial Times article both saying that Merck would buy this company out and the deals are somewhere in the 28 to $32 billion range.
And that was before they presented at JP Morgan, where they had even more impressive data than
they had while that deal was being talked about. Now a lot of the holders are basically saying like,
reject the deal at 32, we want 40 bill plus. So I don't think that'll happen. But it seems like to
me that a deal at 32 could happen. Now the market cap you see when you look up that stock
is not going to be fully diluted. So the upside isn't tremendous. But I think the IRR could be
quite high if this deal closes soon. So I have pretty, I have like a, you know, I put on positions
if I feel that there's good IRR and I can like pay back that margin loan in a quick timeframe and be able to pocket the extra.
So yeah, we'll see RVMD.
I mean, that chart looks beautiful and it just keeps getting more bullish accumulation, I think.
And that one seems like it's probably the next one to go, but we'll see.
I don't expect a huge premium, but that's why I sized it up.
the huge premium, but that's why I sized it up.
Sounds good.
Sounds good.
All right.
Well, we, I guess we're going to wrap things up here a little early.
I know Evan is on the road too, and I already got out my, my stock pick for today.
So we won't be back tomorrow.
We're live every Monday through Thursday.
So we will see you guys on Tuesday because markets close on Monday,
which totally slipped my mind.
We'll see you guys on Tuesday.
Same time, same place.
I will be doing a live stream tomorrow for Discord members,
for those that's in there around the afternoon time.
Some point can be going over themes for this year,
doing a little Q and a and just questions about the portfolio and stuff.
So if you're in there,
we'll see you guys tomorrow for that live stream as well.
Take it easy,
everybody.
See you next week.
Have a good weekend.
And keep grinding.
Take it easy.
All right, everybody.
I apologize.
I'm having trouble hearing at the end,
but I hope you guys are all doing fantastic.
I appreciate you guys for joining us,
making us a part of your routine every single week.
Obviously, it's been a little bit crazy
to start the year with CES and all this thing,
but we're getting back into a groove.
Stock market closed on Monday.
Stock market will be open again tomorrow.
I'm sure there'll be a lot of really great content going on.
Obviously, you should be following Stock Talk,
following Logical,
following the Wolf account up here.
Make sure you are checking all of them out.
If you enjoy live, free content like this,
hosted pretty much every single week,
Monday through Thursday,
go in, follow this account that is hosting this space.
I appreciate all of you guys.
We will catch you all next Tuesday is the next time Stocks on the Spaces will be live.
Have a great one everybody
Insights
Project L
The introduction of Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) as a new position indicates a project launch in the dredging sector, which is poised to benefit from increased U.S. maritime expansion and infrastructure development.
But yeah, that's Great Lakes Dredge & Dock,
ticker GLDD.
The position I opened yesterday was Synaptics,
The mention of Synaptics (SYNA) as a new position reflects a project launch in the tech sector, focusing on on-device inference, which is a growing area in AI and machine learning.
The position I opened yesterday was Synaptics,
ticker SYNA.
They have nothing to do with each other,
P
The mention of Ford's partnership with BYD for hybrid battery development highlights a strategic collaboration aimed at enhancing Ford's position in the hybrid vehicle market, which is crucial as the automotive industry shifts towards more sustainable options.
I have to say, there's a few cool stories or a few interesting things that I've been watching.
But one of the bigger things that I've been watching was the ford uh byd uh hybrid battery partnership
um i think that that one's going to be pretty interesting and i'm sure a lot of you remember
The discussion around Riot's 1.7 gigawatts of power availability indicates a significant trend in the data center world, particularly as companies pivot towards AI and cloud computing, showcasing the evolving landscape of energy consumption in tech.
in the data center world. It seems like a lot more people are starting to get their eyes on the
Riot side of things. It seems like Riot has 1.7 gigawatts of power that will be available.
As we know, Iron has that partnership right now with Microsoft and Cypher Mining has a
The anticipation of Bitcoin miners restructuring to focus more on AI reflects a growth trend in the crypto space, as these companies adapt to market demands and seek to leverage their existing infrastructure for new opportunities.
We're seeing them spend lots of money acquiring more GPUs, building larger data centers, and they're going to be looking to offer more cloud compute in a series of products.
But basically, I think a big part of 2026 is we're going to see a lot of these names that we've existingly known as Bitcoin miners, some that we can remember from 2021, 2022, that were pretty high,
Riot, Marathon, et cetera. I think we're going to start to see some of these guys
