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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: June 24, 2025 Duration: 3:25:42Space Recording
Short Summary
The market is experiencing a robust growth phase, driven by positive developments in various sectors including biotech, ad tech, and nuclear energy. Key stocks like Coin, Hood, and Meta are reaching all-time highs, while strategic partnerships and legislative shifts are shaping investor sentiment.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Hello, good afternoon, everyone. I'm clocking my screen right now because we are 1312 now points away
from a new NASDAQ 100 all-time high. I've been watching this for hours, it feels like,
at this point, but I'm hoping I can update this title very shortly to happy new all-time high day, at least on the NASDAQ. It's been 125 days since we
saw an all-time high on the NASDAQ, and we are points away from it here on this Tuesday afternoon.
What a day. What a beautiful market out there. A lot of names doing very well. Obviously,
the entire market is doing very well with the ceasefire news that we got after hours yesterday.
Excited to jump into it with everybody.
Quick little market update for everyone as our speakers and panelists roll in here this
afternoon.
QQQ is up 1.65%.
It's over 540 a share.
SPY over 607.50 right now, up 1.23%.
IWM also up 1.37%.
Dow Jones about the same.
VIX all the way down, under 18, under 17.5.
Oh, oh, we are almost there, 10 points away right now on NDX.
I'm going to watch this like a hawk.
Let me get Evan up here on stage.
We are, oh, oh, just hold it.
I want this updated title.
I want this all-time high in DX.
Options Mike, stoned me some good juju over here.
We're trying to get all-time high on the NASDAQ.
Yo, I don't know what's to stop us at this point.
I mean, this market is a freight train.
It's like, yeah, we're going to shrug everything off and go.
Yesterday morning, it looked like we were going to break down,
and now here we are almost at the all-time highs.
Market looks great.
Names are really outperforming, though.
If you're just trading the markets, there's nothing wrong with that.
But the names in this market is where it's at, my friend.
Look at the moves today on Coin, on Hood.
I traded Meta early.
It's back to the highs here.
Huge trade there. NVIDIA,
AMD, another one I traded. Massive move on those names there. ABGO, all-time highs.
Netflix, all-time highs. Pick your name. Uber had a huge move today. You have moves in BABA and PDD
today. The markets are strong, but the names are even stronger. And they really are just
piling into names here. At some point, we're going to get a decent little pullback. Please
don't misunderstand. But right now, this market wants all-time highs, and why not go get it?
We're over. Let's go get it.
Might as well at this point. If they leave they leave this for tomorrow i'm gonna be so
disappointed uh and the bulls like come on this is you just go ahead give us six points six less
than seven points now six points away on ndx a 22 000 point instrument come on give it to the
scott and i talked about oracle have was a great buy yesterday right just above the eight day an all-time high today
you come on the show guys you get lots of ideas it's it's crazy yeah right so many things that are that are flying today i mean nvidia's having a decent day even though it's been mostly sideways
some of the some of the names still sideways today um which i thought was interesting as well
um but at the same time other names coinbase you mentioned
absolutely flying as well anything else on your mind to lead us off here uh options mike i i mean
honestly you know i don't have a short on my mind i'm not looking to add long-term stuff here to be
let me be honest with you there i have actually trimmed my black sky position down today
honest with you there i have actually trimmed my black sky position down today um i bought it at
1250 it's almost 18 i sold in the 17s today only because it's just prudent uh you know there's
nothing i don't like here i think you just have to say well what's the next move i think we hit
all-time highs and then we're going to be right around earthing seasons waiting for maybe time
just to take a little off the table here.
So I'm looking to start trimming my NVIDIA, which was very underwater coming today.
I added aggressively, got very green, made money, and then trimmed it back down to a small size.
Other than that, dude, I'm just, you know, just taking trades.
You know, even AMBA had a huge move.
I caught that today on chatter that they're considering selling.
So stay with the long, stay with the strong games.
Don't fight the tape.
Do you think we go into a scenario like we saw last summer around this time
where we make new all-time highs and it's just a slow grind,
half a percent a day maybe, that type of move?
God, I say this. I this not as a trader right but
i hope not because that would just be misery again um but we could i mean
i don't know you know the market here is is incredibly strong we've had every reason to
break lower and we have it so you know the market's going to focus now on tariffs again.
They're going to focus on the big, beautiful bill, which the Senate is bastardizing as we speak.
I'm going to call for a vote on Friday, and then we'll see if that goes and passes in the House.
And I don't think either one of those are going to, I don't think the bill is going to be the
problem. Tariffs, I think we're going to kick, my guess is we're going to kick the can down the curb again.
You're going to get another extension there.
My best guess.
We did start to see some tariff headlines come back in today a little bit.
Some EU headlines hitting the tape.
It's like, okay, we haven't even heard anything about tariffs
with everything else going on in the Middle East.
Now that that's back out, of course, here we go.
Tariff headlines.
Just right on cue, right?
And market shrugged them off.
Didn't care.
Market doesn't care here.
Market doesn't care about much right now.
So stick with the trend.
The trend is up.
Follow the trend, right?
We are two points away now on IndyAx.
22,222 points, and we can't get two more points let's go
let's get that here any second i i very i'm just speak it into existence here on this space evan
want to give you a chance to jump in here say hello happy almost all-time high day on the nasdaq
yeah you're good i'm watching you can throw around. I don't want to miss a screenshot.
I hear you. I hear you. Evan's already got the draft tweet ready for that. I love the dedication there. Evan, let's throw it around the panel a little bit here. Logical saw you
up here. Oh, perfect. Hands going up at the right time. Logical, what's on your mind today? What
at the right time.
Logical, what's on your mind today?
What are you trading?
are you trading? What are you looking at? What are your thoughts?
What are you looking at?
What are your thoughts?
Incredible.
I think this might be like my second best day
in the market ever.
My entire portfolio is up 8.1%.
Fantastic.
I am a small cap trader,
so I'm used to volatility.
These last couple of weeks,
while the index is basically chopped around,
people are probably thinking, okay, it's been a pretty flat market,
you know, it can't be that bad. But honestly, my portfolio was getting hit quite a bit. I was in
quite a bit of a pullback just this last couple of weeks. Under the surface, I think the market,
sometimes people like get fooled because they, you know they see the index, but they don't realize that individual names are doing whatever they're doing.
And in the last couple of weeks, if you look up a lot of charts on different names, you'll see that individual names were down 10, 15, 20, even more percent in just a couple of weeks time.
And that definitely was hitting my year-to-date performance.
But when I looked at the charts, it didn't feel like anything too scary. couple weeks time and that's definitely was hitting my year-to-date performance uh but when
i looked at the charts it didn't feel like anything too scary it just felt like orderly pullbacks
after a big run up uh after a big run up but like yeah so i mean i i think that's kind of what you
want to be doing is like okay we're getting a pullback um you know trying to manage the amount
of exposure that i have right now i'm'm extremely, extremely long because I do feel like today is what you would call a trend day.
You know, a lot of days in the last couple of weeks, we've basically just gone nowhere.
I know, you've been saying that and, you know, we've been seeing it in the price action.
It just kind of does whatever, which is fine, right?
which is fine, right? Like consolidation is good. Some names are working, others aren't.
Like consolidation is good.
Some names are working, others aren't.
But I think where we are right now is it's possible that this market is after, you know,
a few weeks of digesting, it's ready for the next leg up. It's just shrugging off everything.
It just wants to go higher. I think you can tell that in the price action. So, you know,
where most people think like, oh, we just had a huge run up and we should get a pullback.
Again, I think that underlying components of the market did have pullbacks stealth, like in stealth mode.
Whereas the index chopped, you don't necessarily need to have the index pullback.
You could just have this kind of digestion consolidation period.
So, yeah, it feels constructive.
Feels like we're going to hit new all-time highs like any day.
I would not be fading this at all.
Yeah, I want to talk about a couple of winners today that have contributed.
I mean, I don't know if you guys saw, it's got to be probably the biggest winner on the market today.
Nectar, NKTR Bio.
It's a bio company that had data today up 172%.
I actually sized it up even today after the data during the day.
It's just been up and to the right.
It is tracking.
It's a 31 million volume.
The average volume is 240K.
So this thing is like 150 times average volume at this point.
You can't really ignore something like that.
And a lot of the smart people in this industry on FinTwit, I've been noticing, they're basically
talking about how this stock at 25 bucks is an extreme under reaction.
And there was investment banks that put out notes before the data came out saying like,
look, if they fail, it's 50% downside.
And they put the different scenario analysis.
And they basically said, if the data comes in this range, this is the upside.
If this comes in this range, this is the upside.
And the range that the data came in, they said that there's probably five to 10 X upside.
That's when the stock was trading around like eight or nine bucks.
So you know, five or 10 X upside would put this thing at 45 to $90.
So, yeah, I do kind of understand what some of these people are saying in the space.
So I actually sized up this position and KTR and I'm just going to write it because, yeah, this is clearly a change for this company.
And mind you, they have $17 of cash per share trading at 26 so this
stock was just trading at like half of the cash on the balance sheet now it's trading just above the
cash on the balance sheet so 320 million market cap they have about 220 million in cash so it's
still very cheap um and i think once people wrap their heads around that and they'll they'll realize
with this data and their pipeline uh and all these other catalysts that they have on the
horizon, they can easily raise capital. So, you know, even if there's going to be more
phases and more cash burn, yeah, NKTR, huge winner in the market today, a big contributor
for me today. Prime Medicine is a gene editing company up 16% today.
I think has just been up, up every single day since that Verve Therapeutics,
another gene editing name was acquired for $1.3 billion by Eli Lilly last week.
I think that Prime is like a pretty perfect example of like a sympathy play.
It's only a 330 mil market cap.
So that one's looking really good.
Another bio that did well today is a Regenexx bio. I've talked about this one a lot
Up eight nine percent today rapid micro bio systems up eight nine eight point eight percent today
New holdings, which is and you a lot of people like this stock growth stock If you look at the chart, I mean it broke out of the downtrend came back to retest that breakout of the downtrend.
I posted a chart on this on my Twitter yesterday or the day before.
I ended up taking January 27 leaps.
The stock's up 9% today and just broke out.
So that looks really great.
This one that Stock Talks talked about, GSRT, which is the SPAC in the nuclear theme.
Very strong. Every single day, green, basically. the SPAC in the nuclear theme. Very strong.
Every single day, green, basically.
Looks like they're just kind of accumulating this.
Again, 2x volume today, which is nice to see.
I think, you know, that one clearly have a lot of upside.
DGXX is a small cap, more like a micro cap, that has a partnership with SMCI.
That one's been holding a very strong, nice volume on that.
Techogen, TGen is another 190 million market cap company.
They have the Vertiv partnership I've been talking about a lot.
This thing is up like 200% in the last three months.
I mean, there's just so many winners.
Magnite, my largest position, just surpassed $20 a share, up 6% today.
I've sized that at 20% portfolio weighting, which is like the largest I've ever put.
Oscar Health, which has been a very popular one in retail names, that one pulled back pretty perfectly today.
I actually just decided to re-enter it.
So happy that that's now actually pushing up a little bit higher towards the end of the day. Just so many winners.
It's kind of incredible. And so, yeah, I'm really hoping that, you know, it's possible that we,
you know, saw the pullback in some of these smaller cap names. And I'm telling you,
because people are probably like, well, pull back, down like two percent so yeah but um you know if you have a portfolio of
small caps or whatever i mean i i took a pretty big hit in the last couple weeks so i pay attention
specifically to a lot of individual stocks in the market and i can say that you know it's possible
that we just had that orderly pullback retested some moving averages and now we're ready to
you know push up higher um because those things are getting bought right now.
Anyways, yeah.
And they have very strong moves and you just have to be used to the volatility and stomach
But yeah, very long, very strong and very happy with price action today.
Anyways.
So you mentioned like, what is your general approach up here?
And one of the things you mentioned that you referenced something I was talking about is that consolidation for however many days I said yesterday, I can't remember how many it was, but it seems like we're going into a full on breakout here. How are you managing things? I mean, congrats on the big day, first off. That's amazing. Always love to hear that you uh are you trimming anything are you reducing some
some risk into these highs or are you saying hey breakouts coming no i'm i'm doing the opposite i've
been adding a lot of exposure today um and again it's because i i don't necessarily own the you
know the robin hoods and you know some of you know the netflix is where I personally, from a fundamental basis, I don't see enough
of that risk reward to the upside to be able to take on that exposure and that risk.
Where I'm playing, the sandbox I'm playing in, I feel that the upside is tremendous in
is tremendous in a lot of these companies. So for me, that's kind of why the risk reward is worth it
a lot of these companies.
to me to take, you know, those kinds of risks. And yeah, I mean, that's kind of how you have
to think about it, right? Like what's your downside, what's your upside? And as long as you
like manage your exposure, because like, again, if I'm like over 100 along then i can just use that additional
exposure as kind of like my trading on top of my portfolio and i feel that like the portfolio is
gonna or like the market's gonna rip higher um then i definitely want to be positioned extra long
uh but you know an off chance that we fail or we um you know lose moving averages or lose momentum
then you have like clear lines in the sand for
that additional exposure take yourself back down to a more manageable exposure within a bull market
which in my view should be 100 percent uh and then yeah just you know get more aggressive and you
know maybe to some people 80 is like their comfortable place long um and then you know
for me like i would say like 100 is like i'm very comfortable
long in a bull market i don't really need cash um and if i want to get aggressive then i can just
you know use my margin and get even more long but or you know incorporate calls or whatever but
yeah so um i'm not looking to cut things because i think that a lot of these tickers are
starting to look really good and i can only imagine if we finally get the rally to broaden out for the reasons that I'm mentioning,
which are that these large caps, again, I'm not saying they'll be weak.
I'm just saying that it's possible that Smith caps continue to get that baton and lead from here.
So from a relative perspective, maybe it's now time to start looking for value
where you can find it in the market.
And a lot of these small cap names are extremely good companies.
They're just kind of overlooked and nobody cares about them.
But in a bull market, you really do want to see small and mid caps participate.
So we've seen the large caps basically get to their upper end of, you know, valuation metrics.
Historically, they're pushing all-time highs.
You know, that's clearly not bearish.
There's definitely more room to the upside.
But what's the upside from here on some of those names versus what's the upside for, you know, if we talk about some of these names, like, you know, if you think about the themes of, like, autonomous driving driving which is really big with the Robo taxi and whatnot you can look up names like
AIP and I N VZ these are small caps in the space they like license their tech
or they have tech for autonomous driver driving companies you know look at those
charts they're just now getting volume they're just now breaking out above
their 200 days.
I mean, those moves are, in my view, just beginning.
They're still in stage one bases.
And it looks like the volume is coming in now to try to push them out of those bases.
So that's what I'm looking for is like the strength there with the volume.
And if we even think about, you know, like software names,
you know, Stock Talk, and I haven't mentioned this one before,
but like Amplitude, AMPL, I mean, that one is looking pretty strong,
especially if you look at the volume over the last three, four years,
stage one base that it's in.
You go look at the volume from the recent weeks,
you can see that the volume is there and it's accumulative.
And, you know, so those can, those can easily be much higher,
you know, a few months from now.
And, you know, there's names like Braze software, which has been absolute horrendous thing to
hold. But if you go look at the fundamentals on that thing, it's trading at like three
times enterprise value to sales, growing 20% on the top line.
I mean, it's a very cheap software stock and not trading at like, what, $3 billion. So I still think there's a lot of opportunity in the market. And that's why,
and I always like remain bullish as long as I can fundamentally find deals on the market.
And I think that if you can't find deals in the market, it's possible because, you know,
you're focused on a lot of these names that are, you know, already pushing the upper boundaries
of where their valuations should be. But I think that there's a lot of these names that are already pushing the upper boundaries
of where their valuations should be.
But I think that there's a lot of market participation
that has yet to happen.
So that's where I'm focused
and that's why I'm very loved with long at this point.
And obviously I'll adjust my exposure,
if things change or new headlines come in
or tariffs end up being worse or all that stuff.
But the time being, it felt like an orderly pullback
and during the consolidation period of the index,
and now we're ready to push up higher.
So let's see what happens.
Beautiful. Appreciate that rundown logical.
Sam Solid, go ahead and jump in, my friend.
Yeah, I just wanted to comment on the new bank.
Actually, this morning, Morgan Stanley came out
saying Stocks probably knows about this one.
They reiterated their uh 18
dollar price target and uh kept it as top pick they're projecting that they're going to take
about 10 market share uh by 2026 in brazil which is a pretty considerable share considering how
much uh legacy banks or um the big banks in in brazil take over that Brazil take over that entire country.
When you think about Nubank, they have basically,
I think the metric was about 60% of the adult population
is a client at Nubank.
That doesn't mean that they're not banked anywhere else.
It just means that they're banked with Nubank.
And even on their metrics across the board,
they have 100 million clients across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia,
and monthly active users about 85 percent i mean the the company is decreasing their customer acquisition costs when
you're decreasing those costs and you're increasing the amount of revenue you get per client that that
is literally just adding the bottom line i just had a call coming. That is just adding to the bottom line. Honestly, I think it's very early
in terms of penetration in the Colombia and Mexican market. There are a lot of costs that
are tied in with this company as far as growing very rapidly in those regions. But at the same
time, we're talking about unpenetrated underbanked markets. So it is just literally free game for the company across those
regions. And it's not even just that, but they had the potential to even expand outside of those
three countries. So in my opinion, a company trading about 21 times forward PE and about 30
times trailing PE growing at this rate, I think there's a lot of room for the company to run.
Also, in addition to that, one of the things that has come up in earnings was a lot of criticism in terms of the constant
currency drop. So when you think about the US dollar, how they're reporting earnings in US
dollars as part of it, that conversion rate has been pretty much a headwind in their case.
But given that the US dollar is depreciating quite a good amount, that's actually going to
be a tailwind in the future as economists are expecting the U.S. dollar to continue pulling
back more. And it's very likely it might considering the U.S. exceptionalism. So
I'm still long new bank from a long-term perspective. I even have leaps on it too,
which are up pretty nicely today, which is great. But overall, it wasn't just new bank as far as
fintech goes. Pretty much fintech across the board is up today.
And I think a lot of that has to do with the stablecoin initiative.
We see Coinbase up.
I actually didn't check, but Robinhood is very close to hitting an all-time high.
It's going to be another closing 52-week high here.
And I would even say another closing all-time high.
They were at about $85 near the IPO day around 2021.
And they did reach an intraday high at $85. So they're definitely heading toward that, it looks like, as long as the market stays
bullish. But even seeing a day like today, just look at the leaders on the board, look at what
Options Mike was saying. Just whatever is strong in this market, it's just continuing to be added
to. Ad tech is just a big proponent of the gains today. Reddit is up about 5%. Unity
is about 4%. T2D, 4.5%. AppLovin, 4%. I was calling out AppLovin more than quite a few times
on Twitter is that it had about a 25% pullback from the S&P rebalancer, the ex-S&P rebalancer
because nothing was actually rebalanced. But it went from about $425 all the way down to $319.
And that was a good opportunity for myself to actually sell my TTD position
and put that all into AppLovin.
And I'm pretty confident in the future that it'll turn on the long run.
I mean, these are basically two head-to-head competition,
but not directly because TTD is mostly in the DSP or demand side platform
and AppLovin is mostly on the sell side.
But the way that AppLovin is really expanding here,
there could be potential that they could get into CTV,
which would be in TDD sector.
But we'll see.
I'm sure TDD will still remain the leader in that one.
But when you think about a company like AppLovin,
its margins are expanding quite nicely.
And I think that story is going to continue
as long as the ad tech market still discontinued to expand. Even on the back of the news that we heard where
Amazon Prime Video is partnering with Roku to share their data as far as serving ad platforms
on Prime Video. And just thinking about that market, CTV is definitely a market that a lot
of these companies are going to start penetrating a lot more considering how much streaming is becoming more important versus legacy television.
Linear TV, actually, it's what Disney calls it.
And I think there's a lot of runway for that one, in my opinion.
When you think of a company like Reddit, there was a lot of backdrops, especially Google search, supposedly dying.
And Reddit was going to be one of the non-beneficiaries of that.
It's actually going to be against them because that's where all the results come from from Reddit forums.
But they're figuring out a way to do that by offering AI tools for people who want to
put in ads on their real estate.
And they are technically a wall garden.
So it is their own economy that they're putting up real estate for.
And honestly, I think that's part of the entire secular trend when you think of smartphone penetration around the entire world. So again, just sticking with the secular trends
here, not really making any too big moves in the portfolio other than TTD this week,
have been a bit active lately because as the market continue goes up, I'd rather focus more
on leaders than have just a 20, 25 plus names portfolio. And with that being said, I mean, Robinhood is just,
I'm just amazed at how this thing is just moving.
Stocktalk posted that chart up there,
posted that post up there.
He's over 300% gain on Robinhood, 19 cost basis.
My cost basis is not as good as his.
I'm around a $32 cost basis,
but added some leaps and debit spreads
when it pulled back after the recent earnings.
And sometimes you just get these opportunities. You got to take advantage of it because it's just
been a clear leader in terms of price performance, but also in terms of fundamental perspective.
It's definitely one of the leaders in the fintech and brokerage industry. There's been a lot of
commentary between like SoFi versus Robinhood sort of. And it doesn't have to be so binary
where it's like, there can only be one winner out of this And, you know, it doesn't have to be so binary where it's like,
there can only be one winner out of this.
It's like, well, they can both be winners
because when you think about the secular trend
and how a lot of the money
is really being shifted around the disruptors
in the brokerage industry
and also the banking industry,
there's potential for pretty much
all these companies to be successful in here.
And that's why you're seeing
a lot of these companies up year to date,
you know, and that includes NewBank,
that includes SoFi.
I don't know how much SoFi is up year to date but you know you can expect probably a bidding on that one as
soon as the market decides to rotate money into there and the robberhood and coinbase and so on
i mean it's just it it is it is a loose monetary environment right now and it's going to keep
getting looser especially with the amount of printing that's going to be happening from the
bill that's going to be passed in anticipation of that very difficult to be bearish here especially since we're still in a rate cut cycle so yeah i'm
still staying bullish you know same thing as opposite mike not making any big moves on the
long-term portfolio today uh but just uh just reaping the gains
the sweet words reaping the gains right that's that's that's one of my favorite parts i know like some
people look at a slow kind of grind up trend day to day and maybe they're bored i know some traders
out there are like uh boring price action i don't know it's something about days like like today i
i love them i absolutely love them brett let me uh let me swing over and bring you into the
conversation next see what's on your mind what are you watching out there in these markets?
General analysis. What's going on, Brett? How are you?
I'm doing good.
Thank you for asking.
It's been a little while since I've been able to hop on one of these
just with everything going
on these last couple of weeks.
But yeah, I mean,
I think when you look at what's
going on, I don't know.
I kind of, I don't want to say I'm not that surprised, but I mean, the markets have been performing
so well for these last, I mean, almost two full months.
The beginning of May, it was pretty much just got off to this sort of like jumpstart full
of gap ups that never really retraced.
And then, you know, we have this nice little sort of consolidation
down to like the 21 day and now we're getting that upside follow through. Obviously the headlines
and the geopolitical situation is playing into the hands of the bulls in this scenario.
Obviously things could have gone worse and escalated considerably, but that's not how they went this time. And now we're seeing that
sort of that upside follow through. I don't know if we've hit all time highs today or not, but we're
close enough to it where it feels like we're right there. And that's, I mean, that's, I don't know
what else you could ask for if you're a bull. You know, if you're a very short term trader then maybe I guess you could ask for a little bit more volatility
back but for me that's
not so much my style
I'm a longer term investor
and a swing trader when I'm trying
to be more active and for me
the swing trading really
I put the brakes on
once we kind of hit that
halfway point through March
all the typical types of setups that I would follow were being blown to bits.
And for me, that's just a chance.
I've unfortunately learned the hard way over the years, but that's when, you know, my style does not work.
to do much, much less when that type of market is in play and focus more on some of the longer
term opportunities when valuations are more compelling, when price declines have put stocks
to a point where they've become too attractive really to ignore. And actually, Brad Freeman,
who runs Stock Market Nerd, I think made a really good point during some of that volatility.
I realize I'm looking back a couple months at this point,
but he kept saying how, I'm paraphrasing for sure,
but it was sort of like, I don't know how this is going to resolve, but I'm investing in good companies.
And I know the odds favor me coming out ahead down the road.
Obviously, I don't think Brad, nor myself,
nor almost anyone else expected down the road to be like two months or three months before we were
back to all-time highs. But I think now that we have kind of gotten through all that, I don't
know. We got quarter end in a couple days. Maybe we can squeeze into quarter end. We're basically
at the highs. We have plenty of momentum right now. One, the technical concern, I guess, for me would be that we are sort of
bumping into this resistance area. The prior highs from both December and February would make sense
to me at some point to take a break, but maybe with quarter end and earnings not for another
couple of weeks, maybe they can kind of rally on a little bit of hot air.
Once we get into that second half of July,
I think that'll be sort of a time for if we do get that squeeze,
I think that's where I'll start to look to lighten up.
I have trimmed a little bit into these moves both a couple of weeks ago,
which turned out to be a touch early,
and then today doing a fair amount of trimming on of trimming on the short on my shorter term stuff.
But I think when we get into mid July, maybe if we squeeze into that,
maybe a better opportunity to sort of maybe sell some upside calls, maybe,
you know,
maybe look to take some of the profits if we run because we'll have the
start of earnings season coming up and it's going to be, I think the bar,
I think consensus expectations are like two, two and a half percent year over year growth. I think that's, it's probably too low. The bar is
usually pretty low. Just in general with earnings is probably going to be low for this quarter as
well with the tariff impacts maybe being over, you know, maybe, maybe, maybe worrying too much
about what those impacts will be. I hope that's the case. But I think, you know, when we start to look into the back half of the month, you get the,
I think ECBs on the 24th, you get the Fed, I think on the 30th. So kind of a lot of things
going on that last little chunk of the month. And maybe that's a different opportunity. But
yeah, I mean, just in terms of where I'm looking, I guess, we were speaking about this on earlier spaces, but I 500, which is just not something I would have typically thought would be the case when we're in a bull market.
Obviously, the Q1 situation was a little more hectic, but even coming through the Q3 and the Q4,
tech was just not that good of a performer, despite having a weighting of almost a third in the S&P 500.
And when we look forward through the rest of this year, it's got the strongest earnings growth. It's
got the second strong expected earnings growth for 2026. A couple quarters of underperformance
allowed those valuations to kind of come down a bit, at least become a little bit more digestible.
So for me, I'm really curious to see how tech's going to do. Can it pick up the slack and hold on to that leadership role that it took in Q2?
And if it does, can it act as a stabilizer for the market, just given how big of a weighting it has?
And then within tech, we're starting to see semis come back. Taiwan Semi and NVIDIA are
right at the top of their ranges. Broadcom broke out a couple weeks ago. That's been making record highs.
Oracle's been riding the AI wave. So I'm kind of wondering, I don't feel like it's as loud as it
typically is or has been over the last few years for Semi. So I'm wondering if that group can kind
of quietly start to make a bit of a comeback. Even the beaten down names like the ASMLs,
the AMDs, those have been trading a lot better lately too. So that's really where I'm watching right now.
Yeah, Brett, to your point there, technology, if you just look at the ETF itself, XLK,
new all-time highs over there. You mentioned leaders. The leaders kind of let us down, and they've let us right back up, especially Microsoft. You look over it, Microsoft is continuing to make new all-time highs just about every other day. And most of
techs catching up, NVIDIA is close right there, several names right there as well. Is there a
dark spot in this market? I mean, when you look around, is there anything that's like, well,
okay, that's a little bit weaker or under, I mean, there's underperformers, but is there anything that in the market that you're like not excited about?
I mean, I think the thing that I would be, I guess what would be kind of, what would hold me
back would be kind of a, I don't want to say it's a cop-out, but I guess the valuation. And I,
I say that with a caveat, but when I say valuation, it's like we're in general,
this last couple of quarters, this last year, we've really been kind of pushing up against
the ceiling of what is typically like a forward 12 month type of valuation for the market,
just generally speaking. And at the time it was okay. in 2024 it was the way we justified that premium valuation was
strong growth you know we had double digit earnings growth expectations for the out year
of double digit growth you know this year has taken a step back in the sense of what the
expectation is for the year i think consensus expectations are down to like seven and a half
percent earnings growth which to me doesn't really justify, just if that is it, just that on paper, to me does not
justify a premium valuation. I think investors will overlook that if the impact, the negative
impact to earnings is only one to two quarters, if it's Q2, which is this upcoming quarter of earnings
reports, and then the quarter beyond in Q3. If we go back into Q4 and into 2026 and it's back to
growth, I think investors overlook the short trip up on earnings. If it turns out to be more
prolonged and it starts to bleed into Q4 in the next year, the impact to margins, the impact to
earnings, and they have to bring those estimates down, the next year, the impact to margins, the impact to earnings,
and they have to bring those estimates down, then I think that becomes more of a problem.
It's not that we can't continue higher and do so at a higher valuation.
It just, I don't know that, I don't think we can.
We don't historically do that.
So that would be sort of the one thing that would be my concern is that if, you know, we see that slowdown in earnings,
we see a slowdown in the consumer. So far, we haven't really seen those things manifest into
a longer term problem. But if that does become an issue, then I think that's where the market
has its problems. You kind of took the breadcrumb that I was hinting at there was, you know, the
valuations, people talked about this when we were up here before. Now we're right back up here.
So I'm just curious where that's going.
Thanks for the thoughts there, Brett.
And anybody, if you have anything, I love the open dialogue here.
So if anybody has anything they want to jump in on, a topic or anything like that,
I do want to bring this kind of over to Monitive next and ask that same kind of valuation type of question.
kind of valuation type of question.
Monter, what are your thoughts around the market?
Monitive, what are your thoughts around the market?
And when we think about these valuations
being right back to where they were,
other than maybe the tariff stuff,
are we just right back to running hot?
Well, we are running hot.
We have been running hot for a little bit, right?
So that doesn't mean necessarily that a sell-off is coming.
We could run hot for a long time, right?
But growth projections for the rest of the year are, you know, pretty low.
I mean, mid to high single digits is not typical of the last two years.
So that bears watching.
bears watching next quarter this coming quarter is the lowest expectation but again i've said
This coming quarter is the lowest expectation.
this before 5.8 percent uh you know year-over-year earnings growth is eminently beatable looking
back you know we've had a lot of positives and not much negatives showing up yet in uh in real
numbers so so i think we are setting up for a decent beat. If we get to about 10% when we
close out August or mid-September, actually probably by end of July we'll know because
most of the large companies would have reported. That's pretty good given where it is. We're still
tracking to about four, maybe a little over four percent revenue growth. That is very positive. So in that sense, you know, valuation can be supported. But I think we're going to have to, you know, look at not so much markets valuation, but rather individuals and see, you know how how those numbers get played out right
meta google relatively you know undervalued versus the rest of the you know mega caps
relatively overvalued compared to the s p valuation but if you take something like an
nvidia right they're growing so fast fast that they will grow into those numbers.
And the question is, when that slowdown comes,
how fast does it decelerate?
And is the forward valuation numbers right for now?
I'm a big fan of options, Mike.
I actually like and listen to him a lot,
but I'll take, you know,
I'll take one exception to what he mentioned.
You know, NVIDIA's, yeah, trading flat-ish,
but, you know, 2.5% on a $3 trillion stock
is a $75 billion market cap ad.
It's not too bad.
Thank you. I appreciate that, by the way that by the way no no no i listen to
you i i agree 99 of the time with you i was just saying you know it's a small point but but we've
got one you're just such large moose let's start a fight here what's the one percent you don't agree
with him huh like this one right it's minor points giant span what an idiot what's that
imagine being a giants fan what a loser oh that hurts i'm not going there so let's leave that
alone so um so let's see um yeah i mean if you the the markets for me the bigger problems I have with the market are the
you know the illogic
in many cases right
like when you run up
NBIS
and Coreview
Coreweave and you know others
in the space
on exceptional
demand you know and N, and, uh,
Nvidia is not running, you know, anywhere close to proportionally, right?
Obviously it's a larger company. It cannot run, you know,
by the same percentage, but you know, if it's not,
if it's not a positive narrative for Nvidia,
but a positive narrative for the entire industry that that that
disconnect just makes no sense to me so you know i like to trade it when it hits a certain point
and then sell it off and you know when it uh when it starts uh having trouble breaking those uh you
know recent uh highs right so so low 140s is a buy for me you know high 140s i'll i'll get out of it just
that's trading around uh you know a longer term position but it's things like that right
if ai hyperscalers are you know doing incredibly well it absolutely makes no sense that you know
google's valuation is is so low and and and of course right google has
a narrative problem which i'm the first to point out but you know there's a lot of things that
that that make it uh you know seemingly undervalued in many you know in in in many takes so
so it's things like that that that i'm working through and seeing where we are.
A great example was all that run in Circle.
And I was on Discord telling people, hey, if Circle is really,
and this was $30 after its IPO at 70, 80 well I was telling people you know look at look at look at Coinbase because
you know much of Circle's revenue accrues to Coinbase and they're starting to fatten up that
profit on the you know 7.8 million shares of Circle that that they own and now we're what? 200 something. So it's $3.5 billion worth stock
that was valued at $270 million
when they made that deal.
So they'll probably write it up this time.
Well, they will write it up this time.
That's a massive one-time profit.
They made some announcements
on the payments business.
They got licensing in Luxembourg, which covers products for all of EU.
So there's a lot of positives.
So I basically don't look at the market because the valuation is high.
I look at individual components where the story still makes sense.
So that's how I'm playing it.
And I am lightening up a little bit.
I'm going to have a tiny bit of my Coinbase taken away this Friday.
I do have, you know, that was an unfortunate hedge.
But I do have some nice ratio calls that even if it gets taken away next week,
will along with, you know, along with the price payoff very well.
But I do have a large position there.
So it's things like that.
I think case by case, there are still mega caps that are incredible opportunities versus
a larger market, which might be a little bit tired.
Great thoughts there, Monad. I appreciate you sharing that perspective with us this afternoon.
Blake, we haven't heard from you yet. Let me throw it over your direction next, please, sir.
over your direction next, please, sir.
Saw you on mute, but I didn't get any audio.
Oh, Blake, we may drop you down and bring you right back up.
Yeah, we'll try to get Blake right back up on stage. We'll
come over to him. Gary, any thoughts from you that you want to throw in? Yeah, shout out to Wolfie.
He's been making me laugh through World War III. If nobody's following him, that dude's got one of
the best feeds around. So shout out to Logical. I love the Oscar play. I love that pullback. It's
a retail darling. I've been watching Zeta, Z-E-T-A, as maybe the new retail trade that I'm hearing a lot about.
I don't have a position.
I had a position in this one, but I don't right now.
To Sam's point, who, by the way, is a fellow sub-stacker, so subscribe to his newsletter.
APP, I love him.
Has a buy coming in my four-hour algorithm.
So shout out to Sam.
I just looked it up.
It's going to probably trigger tomorrow.
I'll be adding to that one in the next few days.
I just posted on my feed the actual chart with the four-hour algorithm so you can see it.
With the back-tested result, 1,600% over the last 24 months on 19 positions with an average win of 40% and you win 63% of the time. So to Brett point,
I'm still worried about the valuation here at the all time highs. I've got money on the sidelines.
I don't want to buy indexes right now. So I'm looking at these huge stock opportunities.
But to Em's point about the weakness in the market, we just saw something that I thought was pretty important.
The Visa CEO came out and was talking huge about stable coins.
It's indirect. I think that's right in line with Circle and Coin Moves this week.
And Vlad from Robinhood just said he thinks that crypto will replace traditional finance.
I put in my newsletter earlier this week that Carnival was my number
one earnings play. Who's not on a cruise? I mean, every old person that I know, I'm 54 years old,
and I go to my parents' place, which is a 55 and older community. Every one of those effing people
are talking about cruises. That was a dumb moment. I put out a trade idea on Tesla today. I don't know who's buying Tesla right now before deliveries on July 2nd because I have news for you.
They're going to probably miss deliveries.
I own a small position.
I'll probably sell out of that position before July 2nd and look to buy back in after deliveries because when actual earnings come later in July, I think it's the
22nd, we know Elon has put this in the news before. He's going to raise the price of these cars
once FSD is out and you can start making money off your car. He doesn't care about deliveries.
The street does. He's not worried about it because he can take that car that doesn't get sold, put it into a city, and actually start making money on it.
So I want to get this stock again under $300.
I think it will go back there.
I brought up on this space before that my two semi-picks are NVIDIA and Credo.
NVIDIA, I was buying under $100.
NVIDIA, I was buying under $60.
Credo's been doing super, super well.
I've got a great position in that one.
And one that I've been researching today is Toast, T-O-S-T.
It's at almost all-time highs, I think.
But I like their earnings last time.
They talked about raising their growth target.
It's moved too much for me right now, but I love that one on a dip.
And if you haven't gone to your local restaurant,
take a look at the receipt. More than likely, they're using Toast. And it's a payment processing
system. So I think it's got a huge opportunity. And Dexcom, which is up 10% today, there's an
earnings gap from, I think, one or two earnings ago that I think that one covers. So that's what
I'm looking at today. I've got a
little bit more than normal. Usually I'm just kind of sitting back and not doing anything.
My Tesla idea, by the way, just so you guys know, I'm going to buy TSLL or whatever, Evan,
whatever leveraged ETF your sponsors bring. I'll buy that double leveraged.
Boom. Boom. Boom, boom.
TSLT.
TSLT.
Shout out.
TSLT.
Sponsored.
We work with them, RecShares.
Yeah.
If you're a giant dog with like 75,000 or 35 million shares, you'd probably need the
more volume.
TSLT is cool.
I'm going to jump in here real quick on your Tesla conversation because I agree with you
somewhat, but I don't think the
market gives a flying crap about delivery numbers anymore every time bad news comes out about
deliveries when we've seen it non-stop the market doesn't care look at i think the market so mike
no no i'm looking at i'm not looking at the actual two times i'm looking at the
last couple months every time a report comes out about how badly they're doing in Europe or in the US or whatever, or China, the market doesn't drop. It doesn't drop it. They are considering them. To your point, and you're right about this, they're looking at them as a, they're no longer an EV company. They are a technology company with the FSD, the robo taxi, the proof of concept, robotics. They don't care about the EVs as long as it brings in enough cash to do what they need.
robotics they don't care about the evs as long as it brings in enough cash to do what they need
one thing though i will say i don't disagree long term though one of the fundamental advantages
you're going to hear a lot of people talk about tesla versus waymo is the the cars and you know
tesla could put out a car for 35 000 whatever it is waymo is at this cost so i think that
at one point later down the line maybe it's a year or two from now i think they will start to focus back in on this as like it's not an ev company
but the ai angle is played through the car being sold i don't i don't yeah i don't i i actually own
uber but i trade tesla i don't think there's a winner take all in this i actually own google
and uber but i actually trade tes. I own a small portion in Tesla.
I don't like the volatility.
I don't like the actual PE of Tesla.
I still think it's a little bit inflated.
So I actually own Tesla in XLY because that's about, I think, 46% of that entire ETF or 40% of the ETF is Tesla and Amazon, which are two companies that I own.
So I'm a little bit, still a bit and I'm a long term Tesla bull.
I've owned my Model 2, my Model 3 since 2018. I sold that one for a Model Y last year.
So I'm a bull. But I do think that, you know, any dip that you get on that.
And Mike, if you're right and it doesn't dip, then the market has basically told us, hey, we don't care that the cards
aren't getting delivered. But if it does dip, I think it's an opportunity.
I agree. I just think any dip will be short term. It'll be a knee jerk reaction. I'll come back.
But yeah, I'm with you. And go Giants.
Thank you. Which ones? Thank you. Come on. There's only New York Giants thank you
thank you
come on there's only New York Giants
the San Francisco were New York Giants
so it's okay
I just had to let that
Giants talk just clear the air
here we're going to be positive on this show
today we're trying to hit new all time highs we don't need to talk about either of those Giants teams just clear the air here. We're trying to be positive on this show today. We're trying to hit new all-time highs. We don't need to talk about either of those Giants teams. Blake, let's try you again. Hopefully, audio got worked out there.
Yeah, can you guys hear me?
There it is. Blake, how are you, sir? It's been a great conversation. We've kind of covered a lot, which is actually just sort of my general view as to how I look at markets.
I try to really incorporate a pretty broad view.
I mean, I can't believe so. I mean, we're basically now at the halfway point of the year.
So it's always nice at this point to sort of reflect back on what has happened, where things could go from here. It's been a tough
tape for the average investor at home. I think the risk still remains to the upside. I know that
was mentioned, I think, at the top of the space, but it's almost as if there's like gravitational
force at this point that we're moving higher. I don't think we get there right away, but by the
end of the summer, I think we're printing new all-time highs.
Dips remain viable.
We can see that just from the last week and even on Monday at the Open.
So despite a lot of the resilience we've seen, it still looks to be the most hated V-shaped rally that I can recall.
It's probably short-termism, but I just feel like every conversation we're having with clients,
I'm a portfolio manager and RIA just for those listening,
but all of these conversations we're having that I sit in on,
I mean, you would honestly think the world is just collapsing.
You see that confirmed with sentiment data
in the most recent Bank of America Global Fund Manager survey, how cautious positioning is.
But margin debt still remains below prior highs.
We talk about all the cash that's on the sidelines.
I think there's still some fuel, some dry powder to push markets higher.
some fuel, some dry powder to push markets higher.
I'm not seeing like anyone on this space
would be showing classic markers of excess.
We're nowhere even near there.
Technicals probably are favoring that move higher.
Many groups have been consolidating for weeks.
We got the shakeout last week.
And I think the space has been renamed to NASDAQ 100, demonstrating
leadership with new all-time highs, junkie stocks and themes like ARK, they look really, really good.
Important sector groups like financials, industrials, they look healthy and attractive.
I'm still looking for things like home builders and small caps to sort of confirm the move.
to things like home builders and small caps to sort of confirm the move.
Again, I'd like to see some capital rotate into areas that have lagged that are groups
you want to see in this type of bullish environment.
You know, from things where they stood on Liberation Day, credit spreads have really
looked strong.
I think you have that, you know, the Genius Act passing, that's really strong for digital assets. The Circle IPO, you can see a little bit of animal spirits there. So I think
that's really encouraging. The tariff deadline, obviously that's coming up on the horizon. I
think that's July 9th, if I'm not mistaken. That's going to be pushed out. You know,
the Republicans just can't risk any further breakdowns in
trade policy. I just don't see that being a material risk. If it was, you probably see
that a little bit more in pricing in the market. It's just not there. Geopolitical risks are
waning. Trump somehow managed to solve this 12 day war, which is the humanitarian side of it is crazy, but just how quickly this has de-escalated is pretty interesting to me.
We know that interest rates are coming, deregulation beyond crypto is coming.
There's a lot of things really to be bullish.
On the other side, I still think the Fed is probably behind the curve.
Inflation is just non-existent.
I don't think the tariff stuff is going to result in this meaningful shift higher.
I probably might be a little bit in the minority there, but we have real rates at over 2%.
They've been restrictive for quite some time.
There's all of these things that have been thrown at this market, which is now fully
battle-tested. I think the risks to the labor market are something that we just can't ignore
and don't want to allow that pendulum to swing too far in that direction if inflation is in fact
sort of back in the bottle. So I'd really like to see the Fed start messaging
for those cuts. We're probably not going to get that at the July meeting. So my expectation is
that August Jackson Hole, that's always like a, you know, it's a public forum on the global stage.
All the leaders from all the different central banks are there. I think that's the appropriate
time to sort of re-engage that conversation,
you know, resume the rates that we had been cutting back in the fall. Let's get that back
on the table. But it's interesting because that's also coming at a similar time when
Jerome Powell will be sort of on his way out as his term is coming to an end. And as we know,
Trump has been calling him an idiot and they're too far behind and we need to be cutting rates. So that's just a complicated thing. But I think Jackson Hole is
really going to be the key there. Consumer confidence, that's a disaster. We just learned
that it's slid again in June, the conference board measure. I don't know if that's too political
in how it's calculated. And we've been seeing how soft data is not as reliant as it perhaps once had been.
So it's kind of hard to disentangle what the signal is from there.
Finally, I'd kind of wrap up, especially with the earnings conversation that had just taken place.
I am also in the camp that estimates are too high.
I know they've been coming down, but a lot of that was
more Q2 and some of Q3. We'll learn in real time. Two, three weeks from now, we get the banks.
And I think we're going to learn a lot about what sort of damage, if there was significant damage
from all of the tariffs and the trade uncertainty. So we'll learn a lot more. And I think we're going
to have much better guidance as to what the third and fourth quarter will look like. I just think that the estimates
are probably too high. So again, that's a multiple issue. But as Monitib was just saying,
it depends on kind of just like your perspective on the market, how you're investing. Are you
buying SPY? Are you buying the indices? Or are you more of a stock picker? Or you have certain names in
your portfolio? Because at the index level, it's expensive. And if earnings estimates have to fall,
that's problematic. Not from a timing perspective, but just longer term. But again, a lot of that
also too is some top heaviness. I think bottom line for me, we're in a risk on environment. The amount of headline
risk that has been thrown at this market, we continue to move higher. So for me, that shows
we're still in a risk on environment. That's a common characteristic of uptrends. Sustained
uptrends produce bull markets. Bull markets make profits for investors. So I think it pays to stay net long in this market,
depending on your strategy. Try not to get shaken out by these short-term scary headlines. And there
have been a lot of them in 2025. Dips remain viable for me. I think I said this at my early
marks, but new highs, I think we're close.
We probably just need a meaningful catalyst to move us 4%, 5%, 6% beyond that.
So I'm kind of looking as to where that might come from.
That's it.
I feel like I rambled.
I'll yield back to the group.
Oh, solid. Good stuff, Blake. Appreciate you being on the stage with us this afternoon. Oh, solid.
Good stuff, Blake.
Appreciate you being on the stage with us this afternoon.
Sam, go ahead and jump in.
We just did close, by the way, officially.
SPY up 1.10%. Close at 606.74.
SPX closing just short of 6,100 at 6092 here.
QQQ up 1.53%, just under that 540 mark.
I think that is a new closing high for the Qs, right?
I don't know.
I'm so mad that we stopped two points away from the all-time high on IndyX.
I don't know. I'll look. We got a new all-time high on IndyX. I don't know if I'll look.
Do all-time highs?
We got a new closing high.
Do all-time highs count in after hours?
Maybe.
For some people.
Only when New York's open.
Evan, aren't you a New Yorker?
In New York, the city never sleeps.
You're going to hit the note there, Evan.
No, I can't sing.
I've actually made an effort to sing less.
So you're welcome, everyone.
Sam, did you have another comment to throw in other than that?
Daily Stock Pick was talking about how he visits his parents.
It's like a 55-older community.
I was just trying to slip it in there
because I thought I was going to get a little slip in.
I was going to mention that episode at Seinfeld
where Kramer retired and went to the Boca Vista
where George's parents and Jerry's parents were.
And it was just funny.
He probably would get that, man.
And he ran for condo president.
Yes, yes.
That's pretty much my dad
Wheeling around on his walker
At 83 years old
Screaming at people
He's a mix between Frank Costanza
And Mr. Seinfeld
Oh wow
That must be a very exciting childhood
Do you celebrate
Festivus?
Absolutely
I'm just waiting on Gary Sr. To come on Spaces Do you celebrate Festivus? Absolutely. Absolutely.
I'm just waiting on Gary Sr. to come on Spaces.
You promised us.
Honestly, I did try.
But the man had valve replacement.
Oh, FedEx earnings.
Sorry.
EPS beat, revenue beat, continue.
No, and I tried to get him on, but he just wasn't comfortable enough.
He's 83. He still stutters, and he gets
really nervous when he talks to people he doesn't
know.
Are we going to be able to get
Contra to come on?
Aerobirement
getting killed on
earnings. Do you still have those numbers?
AV, correct?
Is that a drone maker?
Yeah, that is like the premier drone maker.
EPS was a beat.
Revenue was a beat.
Forward guidance below expectations.
Full year EPS expected to be like 290.
Wall Street went at 370.
Revenue basically in line on the guidance too.
But forward guidance.
Is that the one with Trump Jr. on the board?
That's a drone shitco.
Yeah, how dare you?
They are down
11% though. AVAV.
I'll report on the FedEx.
That was funny.
No, Trump Jr. is not on the board of any serious defense companies.
I tried to make you laugh, Stock Talk.
I really didn't.
No, no, I know.
I know.
It was funny.
I didn't do much today, guys, but obviously a good day in the markets.
I mean, everything was up pretty much.
The only thing that was down for me today was Kratos, really, which is expected because it outperformed during the defense volatility.
So I expected some to come off the top there. But outside of that, I mean, my core positions, Robinhood up
seven and a half percent. My shares are up. Sam mentioned this earlier, we're up 315% on shares
now. I mean, really in a year and a half, but technically not because, you know, that was
options exposure that I exercised
in December of 2024. So that was really sort of off my books in terms of, you know, capital burden,
if you will, for most of last year. I mean, I was just in very big size on the 15 and 20 leaps for
December and January of this year. And then when those rolled around, I mean, the stock was trading like 50 plus. So, I mean, I just exercised when I took the shares at
15 and 20 bucks and ended up with a 1974 cost on those. And I haven't sold a single share and
obviously stock at 82 today. It's been a monster even coming out of that S&P 500 snub. They will
get into the S&P 500. I have no doubt about that.
It's just a matter of when.
But investors remain very confident in the story.
I think what they're doing now
with bringing in third-party mortgage providers,
the way they've expanded their credit platform,
the way they're now expanding trader tools,
I think there's still a few they need to add.
I tagged Evan when he made that post a couple weeks ago, but I think they still need to add a better, more comprehensive
watch list feature, some more charting tools, but they are improving their offering for more
serious traders, which is important as well. But it's just a great product. I mean, they've built
a financial ecosystem now. It's not a brokerage anymore and you know going back to 2023 i was actually a
skeptic on robin hood in 2023 it's funny because in the last six months or so i've turned from
skeptic to bull on a lot of stocks that i was skeptical on in 2023 i mean asts is another one
of those um you know i was not a uh i did not see the asts story panning out with Starlink in the backdrop back in 23 and 22.
And obviously the stock was a lot lower back then.
But a couple of weeks ago, I posted the monthly chart on Twitter.
And we took a position as well in the Discord.
But I took the 25 and 30 calls.
And ASDS has been insane.
It's been one of the best performing stocks the last month.
And that thing was up another 7% today as well. I exercised those 25 calls on Friday on ASDS.
It's funny that I'm talking about both ASDS and Robinhood because those happen to be the only
two positions in the last two years that I've ever exercised call options on. I trade a lot of
options. Most of my portfolio is usually in know, roughly 85% from a dollar weighting
standpoint. But, uh, you know, I use options for leverage on those positions, um, you know,
to get more juice to the upside when, and if the trades are working. And, um, I rarely exercise
them for that reason because they're just complimentary leverage. So, you know, I usually
have an equity compliment to the position that I retain if I
want to stay in the stock. And I usually end up selling the options 99.5% of the time. That's
what I do. But in both the case of Robinhood and ASTS, not only did I really like the charts,
but I had very, very deep cost basis advantages. You know, when the expiry rolled around for those ASDS 25 calls last Friday, four days ago, the stock was trading like 47 bucks. So I'm like sitting there and I'm
like, I could sell these or I could just take the Nick on the premium, which, you know, yeah,
it's a pretty significant Nick on the premium 383 per contract. I had a lot of contracts, but
you know, compared to the cost basis advantage on the stock, it's just a risk-reward decision you have to make.
You know, I remember paper doesn't come on here very often anymore, but he used to come on the Spaces sometimes.
He's a great trader.
Me and him used to sort of go back and forth about this.
He was like, you never, ever, ever, ever exercise.
And I was like, I agree with you 99.5% of the time you don't do it because you're giving up the premium you paid
for the contracts. But I think there are exceptions. And I think when a stock that you're
in is really, really hot and maybe you don't want to roll out, right? Like I looked at the ASTS
contracts when the Friday expiry roll came around and I'm like, I could just sell them here and buy
more contracts further out. But the IV was way higher than when I bought them. When I bought those 25 and 30 calls,
the stock was trading under 30 bucks. It hadn't made this explosive move yet. So the IV was,
I mean, it wasn't chill because it's ASTS. It's a highly short stock, but it was relatively tame
compared to what it is now after this 100 move in a month so
i just you know i looked at my options for staying involved in the trade and the best option for me
at that juncture was to exercise those and the same thing was the case for me with robin hood
in december and january of last year so like i said it's very rare for me to do it but these are
two instances the only two instances where i've done it and it's worked out very well in both of those cases. So that was awesome to see. Portfolio hit almost a
new all-time high today. My high from last week was a little higher. So I'm at 82.9% year to date,
which I think is pretty fantastic in this environment that we've had. It's been a very
choppy environment. I share my year todate performance regularly illogical does it too and most influencers on this platform
don't do it which i think is a shame um but it's funny because when i shared my my performance last
time a lot of people were like oh i'm gonna share mine too and they started posting their three-month
performances and i was laughing because like once, once you start cherry-picking and nitpicking,
there's no point in sharing your performance at all.
You're going to share your performance over a one-month basis or a one-week basis
or a three-month basis.
You're just going to pick a window where you did well.
That's garbage.
You know, you might as well not do it at all.
So in my view, you either share your performance regularly, up, down, sideways.
You know, when I posted my performance back in the lows in mid-February,
my portfolio was down 3% on the year. And I still posted a screenshot of it. It's not going to
impress anybody. Right. But now it's up 85% of the year and people are like, oh, well,
you know, transparency, transparency, I think is, is worth it. If you're going to take the time to
preach, if you're going to take the time to tell new traders what to do,
or you're going to take the time to try to communicate a point, I think you share your performance, period.
And I think there's no excuse for it.
So I know I die on that hill sometimes, but it's annoying to me because I saw so many people who are like,
oh, I'm sharing my performance.
They share their past three-month performance when the S&P 500 has gone straight up for the last two and a half months.
Like, I mean, come on, you know, so we're going to do it, share it for the whole year or don't share it at all is my view.
But that's a separate point. But everything was working today.
I mean, M.G. and I logical has a crazy big waiting on that. He's killed that trade.
This is a stock that I've traded, though, for years as well.
I think it's the best ad tech name when the cycle's hot and when there's a reason to own it i got back into this name again
this is probably the fifth time i've entered this name in the last three years i got back into it
again around 1580 um at the end of may may 22nd 23rd, I think was our entry. And that thing hit 20 bucks today.
And I posted an update on Magnite last week.
And I was crossing that 1850-ish mark or the week before that.
And I was like, this thing's going to 20 plus.
And we hit that today.
The chart is just beautiful on all time frames.
Tons of signs of accumulation for the last eight to nine months.
Probably going higher.
I mean, I remain in that trade.
I have both shares at a 1580 cost.
And then I also have the 17 calls for September.
17 calls are up about 150%. I'm actually not selling any of those calls because I think it gives me flexibility in
the position if I want to take off some shares to regenerate some buying power in the next few months, I can do that.
I have the flexibility to do that.
And I can just leave the options on the table, those 17 calls, which are $3 in the money now.
So I have good flexibility with Magnite now.
I'm pretty comfortable with where it's at, breaking this $20 spot.
So that one's working well. Genius got a little bit of a bump today. It's obviously had a couple
of consolidative days below this $10 spot. A lot of people get impatient with SPACs when they're
trading around this $10 area. Another great example of this is Archer, which had a nice
move today, up 7.5%. We're also long that name but these dspacs you know i mentioned this before but you go back and look at the history of these dspacs
and you look at them post ipo most of them fell from you know they're not only their ten dollar
floors many of them pre-merger were trading in the 20s 30s they fell from those prices to one or two
bucks many of them got delisted and very few of them survived over the last three or four years in terms of their businesses
actually surviving or staying listed or staying above the NASDAQ requirement price.
Many of them did reverse splits and all sorts of acrobatics to stay on the market.
But a few of them have recovered.
Last year, notably, the big SPAC recoveries were in the space SPACs,
right? Like Redwire and ASTS and all these space SPACs, Lunar, et cetera. These all went crazy last
year, three, 400% gainers. The quantum SPACs, also those had a monster rally last year, as people
know. But this was one of the names,
Archer was one of the names,
Genius were one of the names
where they had recovered well
over the last few years
from those $2 or $3 lows
back to the $8, $9 area.
But there's still always a ton of supply
for any D-SPAC name
in that $10 to $10.50 area, right?
Because you inevitably have holders that were either holders any D SPAC name in that 10 to 1050 area, right?
Because you inevitably have holders
that were either holders from the pre-merger era
or holders who held past pre-merger, got bagged
and then refused to sell,
who now see the stock coming back to break even
and they're gonna take profits.
So there's a mechanical wall on a lot of D SPACs
in that 10 to 1050 area and it takes a while to eat through.
For somebody that doesn't trade D-SPACs, you're probably annoyed or frustrated by the action.
But for me, I'm patient because I know that it takes some time to eat through those levels.
And as I mentioned with Archer, the stock has struggled with that 10 to 10.50 area where you get these rippers, you know, up there through 11 sometimes
even, and then big pullbacks back down into the nines. You know, and so genius sort of had that
little bit of less volatility, but was sort of pinned in that 990s area. Now crawling back up
over 1007 today. I wanted to see a 1007 plus close. We got a 1008 close, kind of perfect there
closing over the 50-day.
I think the weekly and monthly charts remain very, very, very compelling.
Like, if you look at the weekly and monthly charts on Genius,
like, they are pretty compelling.
There's a huge amount of range.
And, you know, I read Benchmark's note, I don't know,
three or four days ago, and they put another one out this morning.
I think they're the only ones on the street that are thinking about this the way that I am,
which is that the NFL opportunity gives a tremendous amount of visibility here.
And there was not visibility prior to the stock. If you look at Sport Radar, which is the pier to Genius,
you look at how that stock's performed sound very well
you know it's up 53 percent year to date keep in mind it's a duopoly
genius is up 15 percent year to date but if you look at sport radar and you look at
what happened with the sport radar story it was multi-year guidance. Okay, and this is an important thing
for mid-cap traders in general.
Like I have logical trades, mid-caps.
I primarily focus on mid-caps.
I have core positions in stocks like Amazon, Tesla, Robinhood.
Those are obviously not mid-caps.
But in terms of the stocks that I actively trade
and pick on a catalyst-driven basis,
I primarily focus in the mid-cap area,
you know, 2 to 10 billion
market caps. That's where I find most of my alpha. But anyway, when you're looking at those types of
stocks, guidance and visibility is extremely important because by nature of being smaller
companies, there is inherently less visibility. Okay. That's just like a basic concept, right? Like a business that is less well covered, has less publicly available information, you
know, has less eyes on it.
There's just less visibility.
And not to mention, most mid-cap companies are in specialized industries.
That's why they're mid-cap companies.
They don't have, you know, 90% market share in a huge industry.
They have some sort of market share in a specialized industry
where they do something that allows them to earn hundreds of millions or billions of dollars a
year and they get to that mid-cap market capitalization. For those kind of companies,
visibility matters a lot, where you can say, hey, you can be a Wall Street analyst and say, hey,
I can upgrade this stock confidently, or I can value or model this stock confidently.
And that makes analysts actually have a higher propensity to not only initiate coverage,
but be willing to cover the stock at all.
So Benchmark was sort of alluding to that today in their note.
This morning I was reading it on Genius where they said,
this is more than anything a visibility adder for the business where the NFL is extended.
So they get the sports data through the 2030 Super Bowl.
And Benchmark believes that the advertising opportunity for Genius is being underrated as well,
which I also agree with.
So, yeah, this is what I'm sticking with.
Obviously, I'll let the price action tell me.
You know, if this thing fails and comes back, like I said, into the 200-day,
then okay, I'll be out of it.
But for now, I'm being patient with it. And I liked the constructive action on it today. And then on
GSRT, which I covered yesterday, I'm not going to go over all the details on pre-merger SPACs.
Again, if you missed yesterday's show, all of our shows are recorded. You can find any show you want
on the Stocks on Spaces page timeline. Just click play.
But I covered this GSRT yesterday.
Their investor presentation is tomorrow, 9 a.m.
For me, again, this is simply just a screaming peer value proposition.
You're talking about a small module of accurate reactor play 475 million NAV market cap, you know, roughly probably 550-ish million now after drifting up from NAV versus comps at 8, 9, 10, 11 billion.
Just doesn't make sense.
So I remain very long that name.
And I don't care if it takes the market a few weeks or a few months to follow it.
I mean, I was buying at hand over fist in the 1050s.
Now it's in the 1130s.
I'm up like 10% on a massive, massive position.
But I still haven't sold because I just don't think the valuation gap has been closed.
Either SMR, Oclo, and NNE crash 70% or GSRT makes an attempt to reach peer valuation.
One of the two has to happen, in my view.
The market can't just sit there with four pre-revenue SMR opportunities and just shrug its shoulders.
Something's got to give.
Either the other SMR stocks collapse or this rips.
or this rips and I'm betting on the ladder. So yeah. And for me, the beauty of this position is
And I'm betting on the latter.
like I had almost no risk, right? Like my cost base is in like 1052,
stocks trading 1130 now, even if it came back to the 1050s, I would just buy more
because the effective risk there with the net asset floor is less than 4%.
So it came down to the 1050s, I'd probably
make it a 25% position in my portfolio. It's almost a 15% position now in my portfolio.
Basically, 14.7%. I'd make it a 25% position if it came back to the 1050s. So I have no risk here.
So I can just do whatever I want, really. And that's what I'm going to do, which is just sit
on it until the market realizes, oh, shit, it's the only one that hasn't moved and they haven't had options yet which usually is the
accelerant you look at other pre-merger spacks that have blown up lately and there have been a
lot of them go for like 10 the 10s to the 17s you're talking about a 70 gain with near zero risk
very few opportunities in the market like that.
But you look at the ones that have run and options inclusion is important.
But GSRT now is running, I don't know, above average volume for like 15 sessions in a row
with relative strength versus the market.
And then you had an accumulator step in Friday after the close who pushed it for its first
close above 11.
I mean, I don't recommend staring at daily charts on pre-merger SPACs because there is
a floor, but if you are a chart guy, I mean, holy shit.
You know, it's just nothing but accumulation.
Literally all of the volume on the chart, people up the chart is on updates, like all
of it.
So I don't know.
I mean, somebody, you know, clearly I think enough
people are thinking in the same direction I am about this, but I'm not moving on that name.
And like I said, I would just buy more if it came, did come back down for whatever reason,
market pullback or whatever. But even on weekdays in the market, it just hasn't pulled back.
You know, even though there is room for it to pull back as a pre-emerge respect,
it just hasn't moved. So, you know, take that for what it's worth.
And then the last thing I'll touch on is a couple of the short interest names that I'm in
that I touched on yesterday. They sort of all had consolidated days today.
CRISPR was really hot off the open, went up around 4% intraday and then came back down.
I just still really like the way that thing's building.
I mean, you look at the chart above the 200-day,
closed near the highs now of this tightening range.
Over 47 has a chance to get explosive again.
So I continue to like to set up on that
and great volume support over the last month
on this thing as well, which is also encouraging.
And then Bloom Energy actually started the session red, went red to green.
A lot of the solar stocks I saw today had some nice moves to the upside in the second
half of the session.
And usually once those start running, people start giving some attention to the hydrogen
name.
So B, close around this 2295 spot.
You're looking at a break of 23 which was like
six sessions ago which is the highs of this little tiny mini cup that's forming here on the daily
um and i think after what's happened with asps in the last month or so which was really the
first short interest trade i put on i mean if sentiment here, we bust through the highs. There are a lot of mid-cap names that have 20% plus short interest.
A lot.
And a lot that have promising charts, too.
Like I said, the three that I'm in are out of the short interest basket specifically,
are Sphere, Bloom Energy, and CRISPR.
But you can go through any industry, I think, and find some quality looking charts that have 20, 25, in some cases, 30 plus percent short interest on the free flow.
Who have peers running in the current environment.
So I just think there's a lot of remains to be a lot of opportunity in the market.
I don't have to tell anyone that after a day like today.
But I've been saying that for weeks on an individual stock basis, even with the tariff volatility, even with the geopolitical
volatility, even with the big, beautiful bill volatility, there have been stocks this
year that have doubled, tripled, some even more.
And in spite of everything.
And there have been some names that even during the corrections
haven't budged past their 21 EMAs.
So, you know, this is a market where if you are willing to block out
the noise and the macro backdrop and focus on individual stocks,
I think you can continue to do very well as we've done.
I mean, that's been my game plan all year.
It's just, hey, look, pay attention to it, talk about it,
have fun discussing it.
But when it comes to active decision-making
around portfolio management and stock picking,
it is rarely relevant to me.
I mean, maybe there are some exceptions,
but it's very, very irrelevant
to the day-to-day decisions I make.
So yeah, really didn't do anything today, just watched stuff go up like I think a lot
of people did, but the market, as it gets back into gear, if we do push through highs
here, I mean, I don't think it's going to be as blanket breadth of performance.
You know, me and Logical are usually on the same page,
but one thing I always like to push back on him on,
which I know you made a comment earlier,
is this idea of, like, leaders sort of handing off the baton.
I just don't think that ever happens effectively.
Like, I think the leaders just continue to lead.
And I think you could still get mid-cap performance,
but it just happens in
unison. And so I do think it's important to have market leaders in your portfolio. You know, it's
why names like Robinhood and Amazon, like, just don't leave my portfolio because, you know, in
the broad scheme of things, they just perform and perform and perform with the market.
What about Apple?
Huh? What about Apple? Huh? Apple?
No, I hate Apple.
I actually hate, like, I just can't even hide my antagonism towards Apple.
I just think it's such a terrible story.
Stock talk.
Yeah.
Real quick, though, just on that.
Again, I don't think that, I did say that, you know,
I still think that the large caps and mega caps will do well.
When I say pass the baton off, I mean in terms of relative performance. did say that you know i still think that the large caps and mega caps will do well when i say um pass
the baton off i mean in terms of relative performance i think from a rel i think they
both will perform well yes yeah that's what i mean yeah i agree you can't have you can't have
small caps perform well if the large caps aren't holding up so as long as the large caps hold up
and they you know slowly grind higher i think that like the real speed will be in the smid caps. Yeah. And that's, that's where I get my sort of higher
beta exposure to, right? Like that's where I get my big winners, right? Like for me,
the biggest winners this year have been Centris Energy and Nebius, right? Neither of which,
you know, are, are fitting that mega cap bill. But for me, I have to, at least for me to feel comfortable,
I have to have the ability for my portfolio to have these sort of multi exposure balance,
where I have stalwarts market leading names, then I have areas of high risk. And then I have
areas of low risk, like my NAV SPAC position, right? Like that's an area where I can just dump capital
and feel very confident
because I know what my maximum effective risk is.
And then there are other parts of my portfolio
where maybe I'm more heavily weighted
and out of the money options,
or maybe they're more speculative positions
where my leash is tighter on them.
And those are not positions
where I feel like I can dip by as aggressively
or be risk averse as aggressively on those names. So I, again, it varies from person to person,
but for me on balance, I think the reason I've been able to hold up against drawdown so well
is because I have such mixed exposure where where I have this, you know, mega tech market leader
basket, I have this aerospace and defense basket, I have this short interest basket,
you know, I have some data center names, and it's just given me the ability to have my fingers in
all of the baskets, really, and, and be able to benefit when one's hot and another's not.
So that's sort of what I mean by like,
I do think it's important,
maybe if it's not a massive allocation,
but to have those market leaders in a portfolio.
And it doesn't have to be the same ones that I have.
It doesn't have to be Amazon or Robin and Tesla.
And these names, it can be other names too.
It can be whatever you perceive to be
a market leader or a stalwart.
But from my standpoint, I think it helps survive drawdowns
and buck drawdowns and maintain performance
once you get in the Q2, Q3, Q4 parts of the year.
For me, getting that initial kickoff in performance from Q1 to Q2,
that's always been the sort of, I don't want to say easy part,
but that's been the easier part.
What's been harder for me from a performance standpoint on a full year basis has been not only continuing to drive that performance into Q3 and Q4.
And for those that follow me on Twitter, if you look at my performance chart from last year, that's what happens, right?
A lot of bumpy ride for Q1, breakout Q2, you know, a little bit of consolidation, higher highs Q3, higher highs
Q4. That's the goal. It doesn't happen that way every year, but that's what I try to do. I try to
build onto quality exposures throughout the year, have my finger in multiple baskets, and then by
the end of the year, hopefully be close to the highs performance-wise. And so that's kind of
how my portfolio is shaking up again this year. You know,
I had a Q1 where I had some good calls, some bad calls, filtered out the position stack that I was
running, you know, shaped up my exposure baskets. There was one time earlier in the year where I had
like seven mid cap defense stocks. I shaved that down to just three. You know, there was a time in
the year where I had four or five data center stocks. I shaved that down to just three. You know, there was a time in the year where I had four or five data center stocks, I shaved that down to just one or two at a certain
juncture. You know, I had a year point in this year where I was long six nuclear names. Now I'm
long just two. So I think like that mechanic of me willing to throw a lot of darts in Q1, early Q2, and then throw less darts in Q3,
Q4, and sort of build onto the winning positions. That's been sort of my MO for most of my trading
and investing career. And it's worked pretty well for me. But it obviously requires very detailed
active management to do that.
You have to be able to manage leverage well.
And new traders, I don't expect them to be able to replicate that or do that.
So, you know, I don't want people to get the wrong idea.
It is hard to do and it does take time to do.
It's effectively a full time job.
Yeah.
How often do you do you kind of keep your positions like segregated, quote unquote,
segregated, or do you rebalance? Like if you have, for example, if you have some of your positions
go 200%, 300%, do you rebalance those into like other positions? Do you say, or do you try to treat
them all separately and say, okay, well this one ran, I mean, obviously, yeah, if you have something
lagging that you still believe in,
like you're going to buy more there.
But I didn't know if you rebalance across your exposures
or if you treat like each trade kind of individually.
I do, but so I don't do it in like a prototypical way.
And by the way, for the people in the audience that are listening,
I'm simply talking about the way I manage my personal portfolio.
It is a pretty large retail portfolio, but it is nonetheless a retail portfolio. I'm not managing other people's money. I'm not teaching you how to institutionally manage
money. I want everyone in the audience to be clear about that. This is just my portfolio. But
yes, to Em's point, I do do that, but I do it on what I like to call a weighting versus conviction metric.
Okay?
And it sounds complicated, but it's really not.
What I mean is that when I have a high conviction position,
I go in with 7%, 10%, sometimes more than that percent of my portfolio, and that position, let's say, inflates to a 15, 18, 20% weighting,
the first thing I'm doing is looking at the position going,
okay, has the story changed?
Has the thesis changed?
Has my reason for taking the trade changed?
Is the catalyst or the reason I entered the trade,
has that expired or exhausted itself?
Has it been baked into the stock?
There's a million questions I ask myself before reducing weighting. But if enough of those
questions are answered in the affirmative, then I'll say, okay, I'm going to redistribute this
weighting. So the stock that went from a 10% to a 16% weighting, maybe I take off 4% or 5%
and move it into a new name. Or maybe I move it into a name that I already own,
that's been basing out or consolidating, and I feel like it's ready to go. And I want to get
more exposure to it. Or I just turn it into cash if there isn't anything on the table for me to
spend it on. So yeah, I do reduce positions as they swell in size, but not always. Okay,
positions as they swell in size, but not always, okay, then an exception to that is centrist
energy this year, right?
So bought at 96 on May 22nd.
Stock is now 190, 200, but hit 200 bucks yesterday, pulled back a little bit today, somewhere
in that area.
So it's basically double from where we bought it in a month.
I didn't sell any of that. I didn't sell
one share. Now, I didn't have any options on that position. If I did have options on that position,
I probably would have sold the options. But I don't want to sell the shares. Now, again,
it goes back to those questions I asked myself when my weighting gets too high in a certain position.
And when I asked myself those questions about centrist energy, my answer was I would just buy more if it went down.
So why would I sell the shares at 96 when the stock is trading 190?
And so that once that once I answer that, it's sort of like an interview with yourself.
You know, you play devil's advocate with yourself. And that's what I do. You know, I ask myself, it's sort of like an interview with yourself. You play devil's advocate with yourself.
And that's what I do.
I ask myself, what could go wrong?
What do you see as the risks?
Is it too high up here?
Is the movement too parabolic?
Could it pull back?
If it did pull back, would you buy more?
Would you panic sell it?
Depending on my answers to those questions, I'll decide whether to reduce waiting or not.
And for me, with Centris Energy, I'm like, no, I would just want to own more of this, actually.
My feeling was I didn't buy enough at 96, so why would I sell it?
And I still feel that way.
I mentioned this yesterday.
I think Centris Energy is maybe the most valuable mid-cap asset, assets, not business in the world. And I mean that on a premium and
rarity basis, not on the virtue of the business. The business is maybe worth on a fundamental
basis purely. If you compare it to other energy fuel companies, you're not going to come up with
a crazy multiple. It probably is trading around appropriately where it should trade on the business and theme premium alone. But there's a rarity premium that I just believe is even after
this 100% move not being acknowledged by the market, which is that if you want exposure to
uranium enrichment as an investor, this is the single solitary only way in the world to get it.
And I just, that's too good of a bull case for me. I just don't want to sell it. And I just, that's too good of a, that's too good of a bull case for me.
Like, I just don't want to sell it. So yeah. So that's an exception. So I gave an example of
something where, you know, I did trim an example of something where I didn't, but it's not a,
there's no hard rule. It's not like if something hits 15 or 20% weighting my portfolio, I'm
absolutely 100% selling some. No, not always the case. And that was the same thing for Tesla back in 2017, 2018,
where I had accumulated a ton in 2015, 2016. And it was becoming a bigger position in my
portfolio, not necessarily by virtue of going up, but because a lot of the other stuff I owned at
the time wasn't working well. And so just by virtue of it, even holding up in certain months
was starting to get up to a big percentage weight in my portfolio. Once it ran in 2019, 2020, after
I just held it painfully for three, four years, I wasn't going to sell any. And I didn't.
You know, and I could have nailed the top. Some people will say no. I mean, for me, it was just
like an investment for years that was finally coming to fruition and getting recognized by the market.
So I didn't sell it. So there are exceptions. You know, Google, that used to be a 10% plus
weighting in my portfolio. I sold all of that last year. So it just varies from position to position,
the purpose of the position, what my thesis is, if that's changed,
what other opportunities are on the table. Sometimes I'll be looking at something that's
gone up and waiting and I'll look at my other, I have this consider watch list where I have like
eight or nine names at a time that I might want to own. And I have one like a separate watch list,
like names that I don't currently own that I might want to own.
And that list changes from month to month,
sometimes even from week to week.
Anything interesting I find that I might want to buy,
I throw it on there.
But I'll glance at that list sometimes and I'll flip through those eight or nine charts
and be like, none of these are really at a spot
where I want to buy them.
And in those situations,
I don't feel compelled to trim the winners because I don't really
need to preserve or generate buying power in those instances.
Right.
Like I'm not there's nothing there's no pressing opportunity in front of me where I'm like,
oh, I need more capital for this.
So, yeah, I mean, I could go on and on about all the different potential circumstances.
But, yeah, that's basically the gist of it, which is that it just depends on the purpose of the position.
I had a feeling that was going to be how you manage things, but I was just kind of curious.
I love digging in a little bit deeper into the different processes people do as far as managing.
Wolfie, I saw you're hanging out up here with us this
afternoon i'd love to uh see what you did in the market today what your thoughts were and
trades you took and uh top five all-time highs i didn't catch the next one i didn't catch the
the second part of that um i got a call literally right as I haven't had a call
all day and right as you started talking to me it's of course instinctively
somebody calls me that's how it works right so I didn't do much I think the
last time I was on here just two Thursdays ago and I closed out of like a
large portion of all the short-term trades that i had i haven't
really you know put much back on since i still have positions and stuff like you know a lot of
the names that were mentioned in here so asts i went back and looked it up when uh it was uh
june 5th when the trump elon thing uh went down. We have multiple spaces about it or whatever, but
that was when I really levered up that name. The equity since that date, I even tweeted it. We
talked about it in here as a derivative of plays. People mentioned Rocket Lab. I mentioned ASCS. I
think Stock Talk mentioned ASCS as well. I don't remember, but it's up 91% on equity since that date.
Options, obviously, significantly more.
So on the equity side, my position was up, I think, on the highs, it was up 101%.
I just cut my costs, basically.
And I don't, like, CRISPR looks good still. It's, it, it popped on the back of, um, it popped on the back of the Verve acquisition
from Lily.
That's when it really started to get some juice.
I've been in it for a while.
Still in it.
Just the equity side.
I'm still in the name.
Like it.
Um, you know, yesterday I got hit with, and I still have a HIMSS position, still have
it today.
Um, it's been a position that I've owned from low single digits, so it's not anything I'm
going to sell.
But, um, you know, yesterday I got hit with that headline you guys covered.
Um, so I just started to kind of like look for places to hide potentially if i had to
get rid of it i don't plan on getting rid of it but if things get worse um for the for the stock
for the name i will consider it but one name that i added it was yesterday not today was teledoc
go back take a look at that chart you You zoom out. It basically trades against that $6.70 level.
It's a $7 level.
It's been pretty good support.
That's the name I've been in.
What was the news on that yesterday?
I know you were building a position.
What was the news?
There was some catalyst yesterday on that, right?
It was Citron.
So basically, it's the same, uh, trade setup. Basically, um,
they have the ability to like really monetize with AI and with some, some of these other
telehealth services, uh, but they're not getting the same premium valuation or benefit of the doubt
that something like HIMSS is getting because they don't have any, you know, any Ozempic or,
or derivative drug to that.
So like,
I think Citron put out a tweet basically saying that they have better help and
they haven't been,
they haven't been using it correctly.
They've been basically asking people to pay cash, I think is what he
said. But then there's a secondary order where they could kind of turn the spigot a little bit
and maybe they could replicate some of the HIMSS thing. But that was really the catalyst behind it.
I think it's not coincidental that they bought it yesterday when when the hymns news was announced but i mentioned
hymns because hymns after earnings i think started at 38 i'm just going off memory and i think
yesterday it came close in the after our session and it's basically like the bogey point below
there i think it could see that 200 day which is like 33. Outside of that, I took a position in GitLab.
That $40 level, it's like, again, similar kind of concept.
Asymmetric risk reward against 40.
It's pretty clean.
Had a nice day today.
I think if it's like any of these other mean reversion setups,
it could possibly do well in the next couple of months not to have that negative news behind them, negative news being their earnings.
biggest trade today was actually being short. I shorted some circle today, which kind of
is going to bring me into my next thought process, right? So if you take a look at ARK,
ARK has been up and to the right the last couple of months. It's actually like a historical
disconnect from its 50-day, I think. I think it's up historical disconnect from its 50 day, I think. Like I think
it's up 22% above its 50 day moving average, if I remember correctly. And if you just take a look
at the components of ARK, you know, it's been the beneficiary of owning Coin and Circle and Tesla
and Roblox, like some of the biggest movers in the market,
Kathy actually has owned in the last couple of months.
So if you think that there's going to be any sort of mean reversion
on any of those names, I happen to think there will be,
then one way to possibly play it is to fade ARK into that 50-day.
And if you think that there are some of those names that
won't go down, and then, you know, some of her names will go down, then a good way to do it would
be to fade some of that arc and then hedge by being long the individual names that you think
will do well. So for example, if I think circle coin, etc, move too far too fast, and I think that,
you know, they might have a,
have a little bit of a mean reversion to the downside. It should impact ARK's, you know,
ARK's price. But if I think Tesla is going to be up, then, you know, I'd buy Tesla. Just,
I'm just throwing it out as like hypothetical there. So yeah, I'm taking a look at ARK as a
possible fade. I haven't pulled the trigger yet or anything like that,
but it's just one way to look at it.
And then outside of that, for me, the last few weeks, nothing's really changed.
I like those idiosyncratic names.
I want to stay ahead.
I like those mid-cap names more than I've liked some of these darlings.
That's pretty much worked out.
I think there's a chance that Rocket Lab kind of plays catch up to ASTS.
I know they're not the same thing before people start adding me,
but I do think that the space narrative kind of gets grouped as one bucket sometimes.
And I think there could be a situation where ASTS kind of like mean reverts a little bit
or goes sideways or consolidates
or whatever. And you see, you know, that, that money kind of trickle into rocket lab and kind
of like catch up. That's a possibility. I own both for what it's worth. So it's not like I'm
picking one over the other. Um, and then, you know, yo one day and one day, hopefully soon,
I know you're a trader. so this is a different question.
I don't know what ASTS does.
I'll tell you.
I understand a little bit.
I'll tell you.
I'll tell you.
The best way to-
No revenue.
The best way-
Well, this is the thing.
The best way to compare it is to American Tower.
American Tower is a cell phone tower company.
All the cell phone companies basically rent space on their towers.
Basically, they're trying to do that in space.
So there's no revenue,
but it's all done on the front end.
It's very capex intensive on the front end.
And the idea is that you close the contracts with these cell phone providers,
Verizon,
T-Mobile,
you know,
AT&T,
et cetera.
Try to get them on the front end,
even like some of these other, other ones like spectrum, try to get them on the front even like some of these other other ones like
spectrum try to get them on the front end uh lock them into the contracts and that's your revenue
down the line as time goes on your margins actually expand because all the capital intensive
stuff is done on the front end got Gotta get satellites in space. So basically, they lease spots,
lease tower space on
their satellites for these
cell phone providers.
How many satellites do they have?
Do they have a lot out there? They don't have
many. I don't know off the top of my head.
Do we have one?
As far as I know, yes.
It's more about launches, right?
So it's more about how many potential launches they're going to have now versus how many.
They also, but do we know who they launch on too? Is it SpaceX?
They do use SpaceX. Yes. So it's not, it's not like they're a direct, they're not, they're not getting into the business of you know putting satellites out there but they are also flexible because like with spacex spacex is not going to go use like rocket
lab right so it's a it's a pro and a con because if anytime spacex wants to turn off that spigot
they can but the con is space spacex has to do it themselves or they have done it themselves right so
didn't they talk about doing this that, though? Like, calls directly to
phones or something recently?
I think we're talking about two different things.
I'm saying that SpaceX
isn't going to go to, like,
Rocket Lab to get their satellites in space.
No, yeah, yeah, no. I'm just saying in general.
With ASTS, so my understanding is okay.
Yeah, yeah, yes.
Oh, is that not bearish?
How's what not bearish? How is what not bearish?
ASTS is a satellite designer for mobile 5G.
They have five satellites.
ASTS is a competitor to Starlink, not the rocket business.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
They basically have all these partnerships with vodafone verizon
i think even at&t and it if if their satellite works at scale then and they're able to launch
it it's a very heavy satellite i think the uh spacex uh the whatever the dragon or whatever
can take it and i think that um the blue origin rocket can
also potentially take it that's why there's possibly that uh picture of jeff bezos with
the ceo of asts and so if the satellite works and like in like we're still waiting on some of those
tests uh to be working at scale if they are able to launch it like right like then they could just literally
turn on the button and it's like a cash flowing machine because all those revenues end up being
extremely high margins and it's something like 90 margin so while you're seeing no revenue now
it could be billions in revenue in the next couple of years. And most of that is flowing down to the bottom line.
So this thing could literally have over a billion dollars of cash flow in the next like
two years.
If, if, if, right?
Yeah.
And right now it just trades on, you know, how many contracts they're signing, right?
So the potential behind it.
And in terms of cash, they got like 875 million in cash and 500 million in financing that's non dilutive.
And so to answer your question, I went and looked it up.
They have, they were expected to generate revenue between 50 and 75 million in the back half.
But that number is probably low given, you know, the last few months, like some of the stuff that they've gone through.
Okay. and then
so Rocket Lab. Rocket Lab is
more competing with the not-the-starting
side, the SpaceX side. They're building their
own rockets. They started on
the smaller side of it. They're going a little bit more
upmarket competition with SpaceX
on launching stuff.
Once they get the neutron rocket, it makes
everything different.
What's the debt here? Because you're telling me ASTS is worth more than Rocket Lab right now.
I'm not telling you that.
Well, the market is, so somewhere is.
The reason that that's the case is because the market is looking past the capital intensive side of ASTS on the front end,
given that they're setting up their contracts here.
given that they're setting up their contracts here.
They're basically saying it's going to cost a lot of money
to get these things into space.
But once they're in space, like Logical just said,
they could just flip a switch,
and then that margin will really expand.
That's basically the bet they're making.
I have another angle to add to this, too,
on why I think they performed well.
I haven't been long Rocket Lab, but I've been long ASTS. I think the moment of the spat between
Trump and Elon is where the volume interest really came in, if you go back and look at the charts.
And that's when the real move started in both of these names. I mean, there've been other
catalysts since then for both of those names on an individual basis.
ASTS has had some big individual catalyst announcements, as has Rocket Lab.
So that's helped accelerate these moves.
If you look at the volume really came in, it was when Elon and Trump had the spat.
And I think there's actually a pretty simple market dynamic that the market is pointing out here,
which is that Elon Musk currently has essentially
a monopoly on space. Like literally, you know, SpaceX is obviously the world's premier space
company to no one that there's no doubt about that. There's no debate about that. Like they
are leaps and bounds ahead of not only other every other private company, but every other
state owned space enterprise, right? Like other state-owned space enterprise.
Like the Chinese state-owned space enterprise is maybe a decade behind SpaceX in terms of rocket technology.
The Russian space program, maybe even further behind than that.
15 years maybe behind SpaceX's reusable rocket technology.
So without doubt, they're the leader.
And as a consequence of that, they've taken 95%
market share in the global launch market. Three years ago, that was 80%. So rarely do you have
80% saturation in terms of market share, and then you jump to 95% on a three-year basis. That is
exceedingly rare. I don't think it's ever happened before. Usually when you get up a 70 or 80%
market share, you're pretty much done. You got to start looking for other points of optionality
in your business and, you know, your smaller competitors share the last 15 to 20% of the pie.
But that's not what SpaceX has done. They've just launched more and more and more. And,
you know, pretty much every company in the world that wants to get anything material to space uses
SpaceX. So what happened after the
Trump-Elon spat was, even though they made up, and even though that stuff happened, I think it
was an inflection point in terms of the recognition of the key man risk, not only in the American
space program, but in the global space industry, where Elon Musk effectively controls the entire global space industry. And so I think
there was probably a recognition by government and by the market that, hey, this is huge key
man risk. Like Elon can effectively halt ISS missions. I mean, he couldn't really do that
because there'd be a huge legal battle and there'd be a national security interest thing.
And I'm not saying he could actually do it, but in theory, he could halt U.S. access to the ISS.
Right. That's a huge problem.
And in theory, he could halt U.S. military access to Starlink, which is a huge problem because it's an incredibly useful technology on the front lines where you don't have any sort of communications apparatus or communications infrastructure to have satcoms that can be put up with just flipping on a little Starlink receiver like that is incredibly useful technology for the military. There's key man risk. One guy owns this, owns the majority of this company and it's a private
company. It's not even a publicly traded company. And so I think that moment of that spat, again,
even though they did make up or whatever, was the market saying, okay, the pie has to be spread
around. Other competitors are going to have market share here purely by virtue of the key man risk.
Like at a certain point, the government's going to be like, OK, we cannot, even though SpaceX does have the best technology,
we cannot just give every single contract to them because it creates this huge funnel of power for Elon to effectively say,
you know, I got to control what happens with the American space program.
So I think that's why the bid has come under these stocks initially.
And then obviously you've had the catalyst since then.
But another thing with these stocks, and I don't know what short interest is at for Rocket
Lab now, but it used to be high.
ASDS short interest is still high, even after doubling in a month.
So that helps keep the rocket fuel, no pun intended,
underneath these stocks as well. So I think that's what's happened in the past month is the
market pricing in other competitors into a rapidly growing space industry. And I think that's why the
valuations of these companies have gone up. And this isn't new.
I mean, space was one of the best performing sectors last year with quantum and nuclear.
The story of last year was nuclear stocks, quantum stocks, space stocks. If you didn't own something in those three categories, you missed out on the best performing thematics.
And a lot of them have revived this year.
Quantum, maybe not as much so, but the nuclear thematics certainly revived this year.
And right back, people are right back at those stocks, right?
Same thing with the space thematic.
People are right back at the necks of those stocks, even after many of them went up 200 or 300 percent last year.
Right. So, you know, sometimes thematics have a lot of durability, depending on what's happening in the backdrop, depending on what catalysts are available.
And space and nuclear have been maybe the best ones.
You know, we'll see if quantum heats up again later in the year.
But so far in the last two years, those have been the best industries to be in.
You know, whether you have a mid-cap name in them, a large-cap name, there have been plenty of exposures to play them with, but it's the best place to be.
My question, though, is, first of all, a comment, what a crazy time for us to have worked with Starfighters.
Great time in there. That whole thing. It's about more.
and there. That whole thing.
It's about more.
My question is
what is the barrier here?
What is the real kind of
differentiator here? I don't think it's
the Starlink satellites. I think it's
the SpaceX rockets.
Starlink satellites might be the way to make money.
What is the differentiator between what?
I'm not sure what that...
What's SpaceX's advantage? Is it the rockets or the satellites?
SpaceX is like full house, right? They it the rockets or the satellites? SpaceX is like full house, right?
So they have the rockets, the satellites, etc.
They do everything.
What I'm saying is I don't think the satellites
are the thing that make SpaceX SpaceX.
I don't think it's the thing that people worry about
is the launching satellites.
So that's why Rocket Lab to me is a lot more interesting.
The rocket, man. The rocket is insane.
That is what I'm saying. I agree. So then why are we talking about ASC? It's a Rocket Lab, to me, is a lot more interesting. It's the rocket, man. The rocket is insane. Yeah, that is what I'm saying.
I agree.
So then why are we talking about ASTS?
No, but okay.
It's a different business, Evan.
Yeah, it's a different business.
They have Starlink and SpaceX, which is comparable to ASTS.
Yeah, you should think of Rocket Lab as a comp to the Falcon program at SpaceX.
And you should think of ASTS as a comp to the Starlink program at SpaceX.
SpaceX is a, what is it, what was the last valuation, $300 billion?
$360 billion as far as I remember.
Yeah, so like, I mean, I don't know what the sum of the parts is, because I don't have
the financials, detailed financials for SpaceX, but I don't know, let's say the sum of the
parts valuation is $200 billion for Starlink, and I don't know, $160 billion for the Rocket program or vice versa.
I don't know because Starlink is obviously the higher revenue generator currently than the launch program, even though the launch program is the crown jewel technology-wise.
So it just depends on how you want to value the business.
Do you want to give more premium to the technology, the Rocket side, which is the enabler?
Do you want to give more premium to the Satcoms side, which is their current subscription moneymaker? I don't know. People can pick how they want to value Starlink. But the point is, it's the most valuable private company. I don't know what they are toe to toe with OpenAI, you know, but whatever, 350, 360 billion.
billion. So that's what the market is pricing in. It's saying, hey, look, these are the only two
publicly traded viable competitors to SpaceX in very different parts of their business.
Now, are they worth $15 billion, $20 billion, $25 billion? That's up to investors to decide
and the market to decide. I don't know what the market premium wants to be awarded there, but
the setups have been really good technically for the past two months, which is why there's been a
lot of focus on these stocks.
Technical traders have been looking at them. Space junkies have been looking at them.
But they've looked good and now they're working.
And so there's no reason to say, you know, that they're not good opportunities until they show you that they're not through price, which they may do that next week.
They may do that next month. They may run for another two or three months. We don't know. I mean, you look last year,
the reason I think a lot of this rally has been so hated is because the speculative themes have
been leading, right? You look last year at the quantum, nuclear, and space stocks, people were
pissed, especially legacy investors, because they're like, these stocks are up 300%. They
have no fundamental value. And my retort to that would be they don't have any immediate
fundamental value, but the market is clearly attempting to price in the future economy
with these industries, right? The future of nuclear energy, the future. And that's a hard
thing to do. Most of these stocks will not be accurately priced. There's a lot of shit codes
that won't be around in five years in these spaces, codes that won't be around in five years in these spaces maybe even won't be around in three years they'll be out of business but you know they're benefiting
from the rising tide lifting all boats right now there will be winners here though too there will
be stocks that do capture market share and do end up seeing earnings power um and do end up being
parts of these elements of the future economy so So it just depends on what type of investor you are.
Yeah, for the value guys out there, are you going to...
One thing I think you're setting yourself up for is
Rocket Lab, why don't they just make the satellites themselves
and get into the high profit area?
Not as easy as you think to build satellites.
You also have to have the contracts.
So that's the part.
So ASDS is going out and getting the contracts because they don't do direct-to-consumer.
So if Rocket Lab decided tomorrow to do direct-to-consumer, they'd be competing directly with Starlink on that front.
I don't think they want to do that yet.
And then if they want to compete the other way, they would have to sell it to the MNOs, which are like the legacy carriers. And I don't think that they have the contracts. And also with StockTest, it's not
hard. Hold on one second real quick. While we're talking about this really randomly, a 4.57 PM
Rocket Lab headline comes out saying Rocket Lab announces Electron's launch from its Complex 1
in two days. The mission named, quote, get the hawk out of here scheduled to launch no
earlier than thursday um this is an unprecedented announcement to launch timeline in rocket labs
responsiveness amid a back-to-back launch schedule that requires peak
operational efficiency which i think is interesting it's funny it's just odd timing that they
efficiency which i think is interesting it's funny it's just odd timing that they and that
that the headline comes out now
the headline comes out now damn i almost just went just in general this conversation almost
went and bought more rocket lab we'll see i don't know i like space but i'd rather be in the
i'd rather be in these rocket launch companies if we're talking about um like speculative kind
of names pre-revenue or whatnot there was was some news after hours for QuantumScape, that battery company.
Apparently they went into baseline
manufacturing just now. I think it stocks up like
20% after hours.
Yeah, 30%.
Yeah, big move on that.
So does QuantumScape do anything with Quantum?
It doesn't. It's a battery
company like Solid State Battery.
And is there supposed to be
a reference I don't get?
I don't. I think of batteries that's why they're called that but yeah they're attempting to work on solid-state battery I'm not
incredibly confident that solid-state will see mass commercial use anytime in
the next decade but there is an enormous opportunity in U.S.
battery companies because, A, there's not many of them. And B, there is this huge push,
obviously, by the Trump administration to prioritize domestication of manufacturing in
as many cutting edge industries as possible. If you look at the battery landscape, and I don't know how many people have ever really
looked at this in detail, I used to be really, really interested back in the SPAC era in
these battery names.
I traded a lot of the pre-merger SPACs back in 2020 that were in this battery name.
But if you look at the largest battery companies in the world, you look at CATL, BYD, LG Energy, Panasonic, Samsung, SKON.
What do all of those companies have in common?
They are all Asian companies, all of them.
Either South Korean, Chinese, or Japanese companies, all of them.
Every single solitary major player.
So that's a problem for the United States. Just like it's a problem for us in many other
cutting edge industries that we just do not have any domestic companies. And there have been a
handful in the last several years, Solid Power, Freyer Battery battery and novix i think that was a cult stock
for a while on twitter quantum scape obviously tesla to a degree although they're working with
panasonic uh in their battery efforts although you know elon has said in the past that eventually
they want to become an outright battery manufacturer i don't know if that's a high
priority for them but um that's really it.
Like every name I just mentioned, I mentioned, what, like 10 names there?
Four of them are small U.S. companies.
The other five are massive international Southeastern Asian or Asian conglomerates
that control 85%, sometimes upwards of that.
sometimes upwards of that. I think in 2023, it was 89% of global commercial battery volume that
came out of those five companies. That's insane. So you have to, if you're on the US side here,
hope that we do get some major battery companies in the United States, because it's one of the few
industries where we don't have a lot of publicly traded juggernauts. I mean, we have publicly traded
juggernauts in most industries. It's one of the great things about America. We have big companies
in most industries. We don't have big battery companies. And so there will be a big American
battery company. I don't know who it's going to be, but it will happen. Is it going to be
one of these that's currently publicly traded, or is it going to be something that IPOs in the next few years?
I don't know. But I do think that's an area that needs more options for investors, U.S.-based investors.
And I think those options will be provided. The market tends to give what the market is looking for when it comes to those things. You saw this a lot in 23, 20,
not 23, 24,
20, 21, 22,
where there were a lot of IPOs
in all of these hot sectors.
Most didn't pan out well
and many of them are delisted,
but that happens when hype happens.
IPOs happen.
So there will be...
Can I ask you one thing?
I want to ask you about
the rare earth materials because that's been a big topic around China and my question is is like I find it hard
to believe that they're all just there in that area I know they're talking about also other
countries in Southeast Asia so what does like the US have in a lot of these materials other
what other areas have like a lot of the replacements my guess is is we just have it don't
mind it yeah the thing about rare earths is they're not really rare.
It's funny, because that's like, everyone refers to them like rare earths.
They're not really rare.
That's just the nomor they've been given.
But the main problem with it is infrastructure.
Mining and purification infrastructure, in some cases refining infrastructure.
That's the choke point. It's not like, you know, do you have antimony? There's
there's antimony reserves in the United States. We just don't have the infrastructure built out yet
for whatever reason. I mean, in many cases, it's been decade long permitting efforts. In other
cases, it's been environmental headwinds. and other cases it's been environmental headwinds.
You know, there's been some instances, there was a rare earth line that was supposed to open,
I think it was in Oklahoma, like six years ago. And there was like a huge pushback from
the native American tribes that owned the property. And I think the similar thing happened
in California, similar thing happened in Arizona, like six, seven years ago. So that there's always
this big pushback on the environmental side about it. And there's also a ton of regulatory red tape around it as well. And that obviously doesn't exist in China, you know, where you have an authoritarian state and Xi says we need more rare earths and you get more rare earths. It just doesn't work that way in the United States. You need sophisticated legislation passed. You need regional cooperation. You need municipalities to be willing to green light these things and push
them through city councils and all this bullshit. So I'm not, I don't want to say bullshit because
I prefer our government system to dictatorships, but you know, it's just a function of democracy.
It takes longer to get shit done. And so it's not, it's not an unaddressable problem is the point I'm trying to make.
And I do think there are a lot of interesting plays in that space.
Obviously, MP Materials has gotten a crazy bid recently because there was a story out that the Trump administration has connections there and that they're pushing to green light more of MP Materials mining efforts.
of MP materials, mining efforts. So that one's gotten a big bid. But I do think that there are
So that one's gotten a big bid.
interesting opportunities here. One that I really like is PPTA, Perpetual Resources. I've talked
about them before, but they're going to have the largest, or they currently do have the largest
antimony reserve in the United States. The issue with this stock though, is that that antimony mine is also
a gold mine. And this is another thing to keep in mind with any materials mining or rare stocks
that probably a lot of retail traders don't pay attention to, which is you need to know the
composition of the assets. So like if, if they have a mine and in the PRs it's being listed as
an antimony mine, make sure it's just an antimony mine.
Like in the case of Perpetual Resources, it was a gold mine in which antimony deposits were discovered.
And those antimony deposits are enough to meet 35 percent of all U.S. annual antimony demand in one month.
So it's a pretty significant asset.
The issue is it takes years to get these things up and running.
So investors have to be patient. And are we,
are we talking about like open pit mines or are we talking about those like
underground ones?
I mean,
certain things that are just gonna be hard.
I'm not a mining expert.
So I don't know the,
quite the distinction there.
I know about it.
If there are any mining experts out there,
we will go to a mine.
We will go to a gold mine. We will go to a gold mine.
We will go to a couple others.
Shoot videos.
Yeah, I think it would be fun.
I know this stuff from a broader perspective, but I'm not a mining expert,
so I don't want to give you any sort of clarification there about what portion of it's above ground.
My point is there's a lot of stuff in the U.S. that you're just going to struggle to have people want to do.
There's trouble with oil drilling.
And a lot of the times these other materials can be a lot more destructive and a lot more,
you know, seen on top, which could be struggles.
So maybe, hey, let's export it out to our allies and find some other people with the
products.
But yeah, that was a joke.
We have plenty of birds.
We have plenty of birds. We have plenty of birds.
And so do a lot of other people.
It's just a matter of building the infrastructure.
And it takes a while to do that.
It takes years to do that.
Like, even in Perpetual Resources' case,
they're not supposed to be getting close to commercial production until 2028.
That requires not only patience from investors,
but it also makes the stocks trade like shit sometimes.
And that's part of the game.
And, you know, by the time you get close to commercialization, the stock will be materially
higher, but you'd have to be patient, right? So, you know, I've traded that one in the past. I've
done pretty well on most of the trades I've made on it, but I just haven't found myself to have the
heart to hold it for a few years and wait for that big payoff. That might be better suited for
some more passive investors out there who are willing to do that. It's just not really my style.
So there are great opportunities out there.
You know, USAR, US Rare Earths, like that's been one that people have liked.
I see that as more of a meme name in the space.
But I imagine Stock Talk trade deals are going to have some catalysts here because this is being touted as a big thing that China has leverage over the US.
And I would imagine a lot of other countries I've've heard Australia, and we've talked about lithium trying. I don't know. You could just talk about different things, but it seems like if I'm these other countries, I would use that. ally when it comes to metals in general. Everything from lithium to rare earth. Australia has a ton
of metals resources, period. Not only rare metals, but all sorts of metals that we need. So yeah,
Australia is a massive strategic ally for the United States. We better keep Australia close.
And I'm surprised, frankly, that Trump hasn't talked about Australia more. You know,
we've talked a lot about like Japan and the UK and Canada and Mexico. I'm surprised we haven't
talked about Australia more. Well, let's sign a strategic metals agreement with Australia.
Let's sign a 10 year strategic metals agreement with Australia where American companies come in,
build the infrastructure, be great for Australia, be great for jobs in Australia,
be great for the Australian economy and be good for us strategically. Now, shipping wise,
it's a bit of an issue. But outside of that, you know, it's, I don't know, Australia is fantastic,
fantastic strategic ally for the United States. I've been shocked there has not been more intimacy
there. There should be. So hopefully, hopefully the Trump administration sees that, but
they've been real focused on rare earths. And so I'm surprised they haven't. You know,
Greenland people say is a big area for it. That's just not true in terms of overall deposits.
They're not even close to some of the other options we have so it may be
greenland becomes an area of focus for i don't know some other political reason but um national
security wise i understand why they want greenland but um rare earths wise it's not it's a non-starter
uh but look there's so many we've talked i don't know we talked about space here we talked about nuclear energy talked
about rare earths there's so much enthusiasm around these themes right now and as a trader
that's great if you're trading these stocks that's great it is important to keep in mind
there are a lot of pre-revenue names in all of these categories those names have a lot of gravity
when the market does correct you just have to know that if you own them you know names have a lot of gravity when the market does correct. You just have to
know that if you own them. I know a lot of people, when they're not going down, they're great to be
in. That's awesome. But if the market were to fall 20% in Q3 or Q4 or next year or the year after
because of a recession or whatever, those names will get brutalized. Because there's no real valuation floor, right?
There's no hard, you can't model those stocks and tell them what it's worth.
Most of those stocks are worth nothing as they're currently constructed.
And all of the value is coming from what they may do with their technology
or what their technology may be worth in five or 10 years.
You're not going to have a floor for those types of stocks when the market pulls back.
So be mindful of that.
When the music's playing, they're great names to be in.
They're probably the best names to be in when the music is playing.
Frankly, they perform the best.
There's always a ton of hype around them.
They go up day after day after day.
When the music stops, you bought them at the wrong spot, you bought them too high, you will get punished for that.
So feel free to listen.
I mean, if you've been listening to us talk about these names on these spaces the last few months and you bought any of them, you probably did damn well.
But be mindful that these names are just going to stay up forever, especially the pre-revenue ones.
that these names aren't just going to stay up forever, especially the pre-revenue ones.
It's part of why for me with the nuclear trade, after all these stocks doubled,
I took a more conservative position. I had five nuclear positions. I now have two.
My main position, Centris Energy, is not a pre-revenue name. They're a revenue producing,
earnings generating name that is the only uranium enricher in the world that's publicly traded.
I'm not selling that stock.
That's one I will keep because I do think there's a valuation floor there, right?
GSRT, low risk, right?
Can't fall off a cliff.
Literally cannot fall off a cliff, right?
When I bought it, there's 4% risk.
So I'm willing to rotate my exposures in these speculative areas, once the pre-revenue names have doubled
for me, or the pre-revenue names have gone on a crazy run, and I've secured some profits on those
like I did with SMR, then I'm like, okay, what, if I want to stay involved with the thematic,
if I think this thematic has durability, which I really believe the nuclear thematic does have
10 plus a year durability, I don't want to get out of the theme,
but I also don't want to be stuck holding and hoping the pre-revenue names
stay up in the sky where they are right now, you know,
because I know better than that.
I know that during market correction, they're going to get punished.
And so, yeah, you can play these themes, have fun,
dance while the music is playing, but when they've gone crazy, when names have gone parabolic,
be willing to manage your exposures, be willing to think through the valuations and say, okay,
maybe I will stay in this one, but won't stay in the other one. Or maybe I will,
you know, sell a little bit of this one or take profits on
a little bit of this one and rotate it into a safer one. That's always a good, smart, cognizant
thing to be doing. And it doesn't mean you have to take your risk off the table. It doesn't mean
you have to get out of the trade. It doesn't mean you have to lose all your exposure. Just manage,
risk manage your exposure as these names go higher and higher and higher, because they've
been frankly parabolic and no one knows when it's going to stop. You know, many people thought that the
nuclear theme was over last year after the correction happened in those names. Many people
thought the space theme was over last year after the correction happened in those names. Many people
thought the quantum theme was over so many times in the last five years when the corrections
happened in those names on and on and on and on and on data center names right after deep seek no one wanted any of them they all broke down
below the 200 day moving everything you know yeah everything you just said kathy woods etf up 30
percent this year facts are booming guys this is a bull market it is there's no i know we're
doing all-time highs or whatever but this is one of those ones where it's like, hey, we've been at all-time highs 10, 15, 20 for a while,
and we're just going up.
Visible market.
Doesn't mean it comes down.
Because I'm sure early 2021, if you said that,
was a good year.
And 2022 was not so a good year.
So there's always going to be moments where...
2023 was good, though.
Yeah, 2023 was good.
And 2024...
Can we keep playing this game?
There's always going to be these crashes... 2023 was good, though. Yeah, 2023 was good in 2024. Can we keep playing this game? There's always going to be these crashes.
You know, I tweeted this earlier this year, earlier today.
I posted my favorite Peter Lynch quote.
But I put it at the top, but I basically said,
look, the S&P 500 has doubled over the past five years.
Were you along for the ride, or were you frozen on the sidelines
because of all the noise, right?
And the reality is, is yeah, markets crash.
You know, whenever we talk about these speculative stocks,
that's always the pushback I hear.
Like, hey, fundamentals do matter.
Markets do crash.
Yeah, no shit, Sherlock Holmes.
Of course, markets crash.
They crash every five to seven years.
But what matters is what you own in between the crashes.
That's what matters. No one up here or no one reasonable at all is going to go out there and say markets never crash.
Of course they crash. They will crash. Inevitably will always crash on a cyclical basis.
It's always going to happen forever. But what stocks do you own in between the crashes, right?
Do you own the names that 5x in between the crashes or 3x or 2x between the crashes or
double between the crashes?
Or do you own the names that, you know, you're constantly in a state of fear, frozen on the
sidelines?
You own the names that go up 15% on a six-year basis.
Like, okay, that's fine, too, I guess.
You want to conservatively manage your portfolio.
But I don't think about risk in terms of the market might crash.
Oh, my God, I'm terrified.
I know it's going to crash.
I know it's going to crash.
But what matters to me is what do I do before it does?
Right?
And I think a lot of traders who have been stuck on the sidelines the last five years
have just failed to acknowledge that simple reality, which is that is that yeah the rubber is going to meet the road eventually
we will get a recession we'll get a you know some kind of war or something whatever that derails
markets i mean war generally doesn't do it but you'll get something that happens that derails
markets and then people will be like oh i told you so remember back in 2020 when I told you the markets were gonna crash like okay like the Nasdaq
sub 150% the S&P 500 is doubled individual stocks up seven eight nine
hundred some up ten X in five years like and and you're proud because you called
a market crash five years before it happened like of course it's gonna
happen so once people think, acknowledge that and
they're like, oh shit, you're right. Just, it's going to crash. It will crash. There's no point
in me being scared about it. Right. So I think Peter Lynch is the goat. You know, that, that
amazing quote where he says far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections
than has ever been lost in the corrections themselves. It's like the best quote. It's my favorite fucking quote.
Because it just goes to show how useless
all this noise making is
in between bull markets.
Unless you're going to call it on the nose,
don't bother calling it at all.
That's my view.
When it comes to market crashes.
All right.
Well, so just to get back to before the Q&A happened, we got derailed.
I was saying it's up like 100% since the beginning of June, and I cut my costs.
I just wanted to circle that and put a dot on it.
Just wanted to circle that and put a dot on it.
The other thing is I've been staying away from, you know,
a lot of these mega caps.
I've been trying to find other, you know, similar type of setups.
You know, I really like the Oracle quarter.
I initiated position last couple of days.
Just I'm looking for some sort of short-term momentum.
The next couple of weeks, I think it's going to break out of this little flag that it's formed.
And then some of the names that are just flying under the radar that have been performing well that I'm kind of keeping my eyes on.
Cisco 25.
Boring names.
So just boring tech names that could become something.
But Cisco, 25-year highs.
IBM, all-time 25-year highs.
Just names like that.
Names that have an industrious base.
And StockDoc, you were talking about some of these pre-revenue.
Can I add one thing on top of that?
Go for it.
I definitely do want to get to Cantro.
I love this theme of these old tech companies splitting up the GE-led way.
Maybe look into...
I am biased on a little Honeywell.
We'll see on that one.
Honeywell looks all right.
But yeah, we'll let you finish, and then we'll get over to Cantro.
Yeah, for sure.
Oh, this guy.
For sure.
All right.
What?
No, I'm kidding.
Well, you said Honeywell looks not as good as some of the other ones.
I said it looks good.
It looks good for that.
Yeah, it looks all right.
Not much conviction in that good.
Yeah, totally looks good, guys.
I just don't know.
No, it looks good.
I just don't know enough about the business currently for me to come out here and convictionally tell you what I think.
But from a technical setup, it looks good.
Stock Talk was talking about these pre-revenue, like the nuclear themes.
So again, same kind of logic.
Like I was, I was in some of these names for the last couple of months.
A lot of people were, I just same logic.
I don't want to be caught with my pants down.
So I started to like look into other ways to play it.
Floor old, old boomer typing owns a giant position in smr themselves
get a little bit of of duality there you get to participate in the thing and not be as you know
risky with your capital that's the kind of stuff i'm looking for at these levels currently given
the moves that we've had been kind of like the idiosyncratic stuff, and that's pretty much it.
But yeah, Evan, Honeywell does look good,
especially above 235 if he can get there.
I appreciate you.
I see Cantor joined us up here.
How are you doing, sir?
Hey.
How are you guys doing?
How are you doing, man? what are your thoughts on the market here
i know it's been a crazy one but what are your thoughts on the market here just go for it we'll
give you the mic it's exhausting every uh every couple weeks we all get to focus on one thing and
freak out and well i guess freak out both ways get ready trade deals i'm trying to think of like that's the next
one what's next great deals like well well we already got that like we've already got trade
deals and we've already had a lot of real i mean like we had a lot of talk about them right
the market's already priced out a lot of fear around tariffs like you know to me that there's there's there's a lot less
there's upside but you know it's not we don't have uh april 9th upside from you know good
tariff news right the market's kind of priced i don't know 70 80 percent of that out already
um you know oil oil that's not a problem anymore i'm so like like you know what's next well what's the
next thing it has to be something adverse in the hard data right that'd be the next logical place
to look well i don't know i mean if people have been worrying about like a big collapse in hard
data and yeah there's been some softness here and there,
and some of it should be very expected given what happened
in the markets in the first quarter,
you know, into the second quarter.
You know, but hard data doesn't, you know,
soft data is very volatile while the survey,
I mean, cause it's survey data largely.
So, and particularly a lot of the diffusion indices,
like PMIs, they can go from boom
to bust, you know, in two months.
Hard data doesn't do that.
Hard data kind of moves more glacially, more, doesn't really react.
It's not as reactive.
So, yeah, there's plenty of worries still.
People are still worried about earnings.
People are still worried about all the things that you know the market's uh been
resilient well has recovered from uh this year last year uh i feel like the list of worries is
just is growing and is cumulative and is compounding uh i don't mean that that's not a bearish
statement it's just that i feel like the market's gotten through a lot in the last couple of years.
Yet, there's still a little worried about everything.
You know, even going back to like, oh, there's so much money floating around, you know, from COVID stimulus, like where it all kind of began in 2020 or 2021.
You know, the Fed, inflation, growth fears, employment, housing.
What did we get this year?
This year we got, I guess no one's worried about Doge anymore and job cuts.
But tariffs, Middle East.
So it's like none of these issues have really gone to zero.
And they're all kind of just floating around.
But yeah, I listened to you guys uh hearing you
speak about all the speculation the market i think i feel like i mean from my seat you know a lot of
those names are either you know really small and really speculative that you know institutions
don't really get heavily involved in them that that i speak with um and it's interesting because
i'd say what what we've seen in the market in the last couple years
is kind of this uh bit of a two kind of a bifurcation in that yeah anytime markets have
been going higher particularly on relief of problems which you know just think of the list
of problems i've mentioned and how many periods of relief have
followed those problem periods, you get a lot of speculation. So on one hand, I feel like you get a
lot of retail investors that are just buying and chasing, and a lot of technicians just looking at
price and fundamentals are not relevant. So you got some names that are you know ridiculous fun valuations or no fundamentals and
uh yet they're still going straight up and you know I think that's just a reality of the backdrop
we've been in the last couple years where you know it doesn't cost anything to trade a lot of
people a lot more people are trading nowadays and you know the market's generally been up
last few years and if anything every problem that's come around you know obviously 2022 was kind of the longest downturn in the market in the last uh
five years but other than that you know things were kind of recovered fairly quickly in the
banking crisis that was another one the regional banks in 23 i skipped that one so i feel like
every you know why did the market not really react to oil prices, you know, going up 10 bucks?
Well, one, they only went up 10 bucks when the, you know, when Israel first attacked Iran.
And two, I think, well, two, they came from pretty low levels.
Three, I think, again, the market's just been desensitized and is almost in like a, you know, I'll really react if there's a real big problem that's happening.
You know, worrying about it is not happening.
And we never got to, fortunately, something that was a lot worse or sustainable.
And hopefully it doesn't happen.
So, you know, you've got, on one hand, just a lot of speculation.
But on the other hand, you know, know when you look at in the kind of
broader measures of markets it's you know it's just companies actually i would argue that are
just continue to grow their earnings that are doing well uh large cap growth uh index index
hit a new all-time high today the queues did um you know that's not going up Q's didn't hit an all-time high because of quantum
physics names so uh and and small caps are still you know they're up but they're lagging nowhere
near an all-time high and you know their earnings are going down so you're getting kind of like some
speculation but it's not it's not that I't, I wouldn't say you're getting broad speculation.
You know, um, you're not getting a risk on market, broadly speaking, you're getting stocks
that are going up more because their earnings are improving.
I either doing well in this backdrop with all the macro volatility, higher rates, inflation,
whipsaws, uh, policy whipsaws.
And anytime you get good news, uh news and the market's going up,
those speculative names rip, but also they get crushed.
You know, I heard somebody mention ARK.
I don't have the chart in front of me, but I imagine the thing got crushed in February, March, and April.
At least until the bottom. uh that's my two cents um i think
the market's going to keep grinding higher um i think the economy overall is okay i think there's
some really weak spots and there's some pretty strong spots and uh i think keeping it really simple unless we get a spike and sustainable spike in rates
inflation oil or unemployment market's just going to keep going higher uh stock talk i think it was
you or someone was saying you know markets crash every once in a while well that that's the reason
the markets crash you know all every single you not even crash, every single pullback in the
market you go throughout history is pretty much a function of either rate
spiking, unemployment spiking, or some crazy thing like tariffs.
Yeah, I agree with that.
You know, I think some of your commentary, I, I, I strongly agree with, and I think
I'm curious of your opinion on this too, because I've talked to a lot of people who have decades of experience in the market like yourself, who have different opinions on this.
So I want to know what you think about it.
In the last five years, do you think and and the pushback I've always heard to this is markets never change.
No, the answer is no.
But I want to hear more nuance take from you.
Do you think in the last five years, markets have changed from the perspective of their
composition, not only because of, like you mentioned, the idea that anyone can download
an app on their phone now, sign up in 15 minutes, deposit money and buy a stock, whereas 15,
20 years ago, that was not the case.
Even as recently as 12, 13 years ago, that wasn't the case when I started trading. So
now that it's so easy to do that, retail ownership, some stocks in terms of US households in
America, obviously that number generally trends up, but that hit new highs of like 65% last year.
Record highs. Yeah, record highs.
Yeah, record highs.
And now I've looked at estimates from different banks, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley.
The numbers are pretty variant here, but in the GameStop era, people said retail trading as a percentage of daily volume may have gone up as high as 30% to 35% at a certain point during that peak.
have gone up as high as 30 to 35 percent at a certain point during that peak since then it's
normalized but it's still at record highs between 22 to 25 percent that's pretty insane right i mean
to the extent that retail can genuinely affect the market and you're right you know a lot of
the names i brought up in the thematics i brought up earlier are these mid-cap names two to ten
billion market caps where you're right not a ton of institutional interest, maybe a handful
of institutions and one or two of those higher quality names.
But you're right, not a ton of institutional interest, but it's become this playground
for retail where people can make life changing money, right?
You know, can make retail charts giving millions and millions of dollars on these names.
And it's like they almost control these small sections and subsets of the market. Not that they didn't always, but they do in a more pronounced
way now where they become some. So what are your thoughts on all that? I mean, just this idea of
the democratization of access to investing, has that changed the volatility dynamics, do you think?
Like, do you think the market as on a constituent basis has become maybe more
reactive do you think the recoveries will be sharper and the drops will be sharper as a result
of that i'm curious what your opinion is on all that sort of stuff yeah well yeah i think you could
argue everything you've kind of been saying is has always been changing and moving in that direction. It's just, I think COVID dramatically sped it up.
And part of that had to do with dropping trading costs.
People staying at home have nothing to do.
So I think you did see a pretty big increase in retail
or the number of accounts being created.
And I think a cohort that is rarely spoken
about that is having a bigger probably responsibility to some of the volatility and
some of these speculative names that people are uh maybe underestimating uh and uh uh other boomers
yeah i my my parents are retired they live in florida most of the year and they're
in their 80s and like you know i got my mom trading you know look you know talking about
stocks you know when circle ipo'd and you know and so you have this generation with a ton of
wealth you know broadly speaking that has a you know good amount of time, you know, broadly speaking, that has a, you know, good amount of time between,
you know, pickleball and poker and Marjohn, whatever else. And I think that cohort is doing
the same. You know, when I go down and visit my parents, you know, I see some of their friends,
and they're all talking about some of these names I don't even know. I haven, I see some of their friends and they're all talking about these, some of these names. I don't even, I don't even know.
I haven't even heard of.
So, you know, I, you know, it's anecdotal, but I have to think that that's a part of the story too.
And again, that's something that, you know, 30 years ago, that generation at that age didn't have the risk tolerance and appetite, I should say,
that the current generation does. Because the prior generation was children of the depression,
where my parents' age are beyond that. So I think that's a part of it too.
So, um, I think that's a part of it too.
Uh, have markets, by the way, just, uh, I don't know how anecdotal this is, but just
looking at some of my analytics across different areas, like 45 to 55 is a decent analytic
on Twitter, but once we're getting over 65, it's like two, 3% of the audience.
Oh, I don't think they're on Twitter.
We have a couple of nice shows on YouTube that have, it's like a 10%, it's a Tesla show
only and 10% of the audience is 65 plus i think they're watching tv more so i think they're
talking to each other you know you know remember this generation is not glued to their phone as
much so um i wouldn't expect it to be over represented uh an online platform perspective.
But I just think that that's another part of it
that people are, you know, it's not just you young folk.
So yeah, I think all of this has contributed to that secularly.
I think also what's made the market more reactive is not only the you know access
to information uh which again is uh skyrocketed in terms of ease of you know the free amount of
information that's out there easy to access um nowadays but it's just also i think since covid
again going back to what i started when i first started
talking there's there's been this like ongoing string of uncertainty starting with the pandemic
followed by you know the recovery and the stimulus followed by inflation in 2022
uh and then you know the the all the other things that have followed, you know, fortunately not as negative as 22,
but there's just been this string of uncertainty.
And again, I think it's been compounding.
And when you're in an uncertain market where,
oh, we don't really know what the Fed,
I mean, how many times has the bond market
priced in and out rate cuts?
How many times has the consensus gone back?
Have you looked at, speaking of that, Kendra,
have you looked at the of that get your volatility
and the fed watch tool in the past three years versus history it's crazy yeah uh yeah i mean
which it's not it's nuts uh you know i i count we've got nine bond uh since 23 the 10-year
narrative you know what why is the 10 you're going up or down and the economic outlook has changed nine times in two two and a half years now that's you know ridiculous so i think
there's a lot of uncertainty it's really easy to trade there's a lot of information the information
is amplified by the media which is being amplified given the political situation right because all the things that
we're focused on as market participants are very politicized nowadays inflation employment etc
the stock market tariffs so it's just you can't get you you can't not hear about it and um if more
people are trading stocks they're reacting more often. So I think just a drop of uncertainty creates more market myopia and make things very short
term.
And, you know, I think the markets have gotten extremely short term focused.
And I think, you know, right now, like you look at the market, you know, wow, the valuations
are almost back to the highs, markets back to the highs, more or less.
But look, we have all these problems.
And I think it's underappreciated reality that, yeah,
a lot of those problems you just mentioned are not as bad as they were,
you know, a week ago or six weeks ago or, you know, a year ago.
So the market is a what have you done for me lately type of pricing.
And right now, I mean, look, the 10 years down to 428, 429.
Oil's back to 64 bucks.
S&P earnings estimates, which are usually rising or at a new all-time high.
Yeah, housing's getting worse.
You know, some little bit of concern in some of the jobs data
but it's all moving really slowly and that's okay you know again it's a shock that makes markets go
down and we haven't really had a shock in a while fortunately and the you know this oil move was not
a shock you know it was ten dollars and markets don't price in things beyond them happening from a macro perspective.
So if oil goes up $10, okay.
If it goes up $30, $40, yeah, then the market will be hit harder.
So I just think there's been a lot of desensitization to risk.
is desensitization to risk and uh it's going to take something more sustainable and worse
to get markets down i think again you can think of it simply in the in the buckets of
inflation it's going to spike again with with tariffs okay if cpi goes up you know a percent
year on year like is that a big deal? Is the market, should the market fall 20%?
Because then, no, that's ridiculous, especially when it's expected.
And so, you know, is the 10-year going to four, you know, back to 4.7, a reason for the market to fall 20%?
So right now, there's, you know, outside of obviously geopolitical induced shocks, which hopefully that risk has
come down. I don't see unemployment going up quickly. I don't see interest rates going up
quickly. I don't see inflation going up quickly. So I do see that the market's priced out a lot
of risk and, you know, since April 9th, as it should have. And I think going forward,
we shouldn't expect, if the market's not worried about a lot it's like
there's not much to price out in terms of risk like if we get good cpi data markets will love
that if we get good jobs data also good news but you know like going back to tariff deals
yeah like what are we gonna like how much more is left on the upside from that hard to say there's a lot not to say it won't be a positive but you know the spring is not
so coiled there so from here i think returns will still be positive but uh i would i would imagine
they'll start to slow down be because uh we've you, it's not really, markets aren't really pricing in much risk right
now, which again, I think is appropriate, at least given what I see. That's not a bearish thing. If
a risk pops up, the markets will react as it usually does, but it's not a reason to be bearish
because valuations are high. It's not a reason to be bearish because names are, you know, speculative names are going up. I think that all makes sense.
The risk is not speculation and expensive markets.
The risk is, this sounds, sounds tautological.
The risk is risk.
And that, those risks are inflation, interest rates, oil, unemployment, you know, or something, something, you know, crazy exogenous happening.
Uh, those, those are all the reasons, you know, crazy exogenous happening.
Those, those are all the reasons the markets go down historically as they should.
Yeah, I think, you know, to your point about like intraday volatility, I was talking to one of my mentors about this.
He's been a hedge fund manager in New York for like 25 years.
And he was like really aggressive about it when I was talking about it.
I asked him basically the same question I asked you with the context I gave you.
And he was like, dude, nowadays, every Bloomberg headline is on Twitter within 15 seconds or less.
And he's like, you know, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of retail traders see and react to those headlines.
tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of retail traders see and react to those headlines.
And on top of that, you look at zero DTE options, right?
They used to make up 5% or 6% when they were first introduced of total notional options volume.
Now they're making up 60-plus percent.
Like, if that doesn't change markets, like I don't know what does.
I mean, yeah, I get what a lot of these legacy guys say, which is like markets never change.
No, the principles never change. Yeah, I would agree with that.
But do the dynamics of markets change?
I mean, I think the weight of the evidence of the last five years, the five million new retail accounts a year, you know, 65 plus percent household ownership of stocks, 25 to 30 percent of daily volume being retail, 65 plus percent of total notional options volume being zero DT.
I mean, these are signs to me.
Well, what are people arguing that – I mean –
I think people are just arguing just i don't think behavior
doesn't change it's just easier to be have really volatile but like see it's all about fear and
greed at the end i think the argument i've heard from legacy guys the pushback i've heard from
legacy guys is that like oh okay well like when the market crashes they'll all be wiped out and
we'll be back to mean reversion in terms of market dynamics right and i just don't know if i agree
with that like i don't know if a market crash
is just going to obliterate retail participation.
The next market crash is going to obliterate
retail participation to the extent
that you see those numbers move much.
Well, again, define a market crash.
Yeah, I guess that's a good point, right?
Like, it depends on what it looks like, right?
If it's like a three-year, you know, drawdown or if it's a dead decade or – yeah, I get that.
Yeah, and that probably does matter, right?
I mean, in that context, when was the last market crash in that?
I mean, I don't know.
I guess it depends on how you want to define it right like if you are to find the the 2022 peak to trough decline if you want to define the 2020
covid crash your crash i'll put in quotation marks i mean we're you yeah but but that i would
argue had the opposite effect that wasn't that was that was look at the rebound no no look at
i agree i'm not characterizing it as a crash. I'm just using that term,
you know,
sort of flippantly and generically.
Right.
I'm not,
I'm not playing a,
like,
you know,
I'm not trying to say it's the technical definition of a crash.
I mean,
I guess that's up to perception,
right?
Like what you consider to be a market crash.
I think,
you know,
for a few days, it did, so i don't know i think what would change retail
sentiment is something really you know if you had a really big change in the job market
because then you know then people will wouldn't be as speculative which again would kind of
it's a little bit circular because if the job market got that bad,
well, obviously, I would imagine the stock market's equally bad.
And that becomes kind of a circular loop.
But yeah, I mean, I don't know how one can argue that there's debate. Again, the behavior of investors doesn't change.
Like fear, greed, reactionary, over-extrap extrapolating good news, bad news, all that,
that doesn't change across time. It's just that there's so much more information to now
get with that around. And then on the other thing, right in the last five years, it's free to trade,
you've got zero DT options, information's faster. So, you know, you see it in markets,
you know, even like there used to be like
a purse post earnings drift you know when a stock reporter earnings it would take a few days like
or at least a day to get priced in now it happens immediately you know five minutes after the uh
the report is that um there is no long drift on these things and you know a lot you're seeing it
in uh a lot of data you know somebody i saw some data that you know, you're seeing it in a lot of data.
I saw some data that showed that like X percent of returns happen in the futures market overnight
or, you know, between market open hours of cash equities.
And again, that's something that has escalated because there's more people trading on that.
On my Schwab platform, I could buy stocks
until 8 p.m. at night or something.
So that wasn't accessible this broadly
many, many years ago.
So I think it's just exacerbating the underlying.
And if the debate is the fundamentals don't matter or like are stocks
following fundamentals i think you have to again separate there's a lot of speculation that's got
nothing to do with fundamentals or at least not current fundamentals and then you look at you know
i guess the stuff i would argue i look at stocks with better you know that have been growing i
mean look just look at the indices large caps have crushed small caps in the last three years why because their earnings are up 35 or something like that um and so company
and that's true at the company level too if companies have been growing earnings so i think
there's yeah also there's there's the earnings component which if your earnings are growing
your stock should be going up, assuming the multiple's constant
at a minimum.
But then from the macro perspective, again, it's been a very heavy macro-driven market
for five years, right?
We just talked about all the different macro issues that have been making markets quite
volatile and creating a lot of uncertainty and exacerbating all this behavior, both good
and creating a lot of uncertainty and exacerbating all this behavior, both good and bad.
and bad.
And, you know, when you get these macro issues like tariffs or like inflation in 2022, you
know, it broadly hits stocks.
It's got less to do, that has less to do with fundamentals and specific earnings in terms
of absolute returns that broadly hits things, right?
Oil getting crushed today, unless, besides energy stocks, that a broad positive for for the market on a
day like today it doesn't matter where your earnings are um i'm sure a lot of speculative
stocks went up a ton today so there's been a lot of that too uh and again i don't think that's
maybe that's a just a a situation of the current backdrop that is being exacerbated by all those
things you mentioned about more trading and ease of trading and leverage of
trading.
But I don't think it's,
I don't,
I don't think that that's a new phenomenon.
I just think it's,
it's like,
you know,
like technology,
it's speeding up.
Cause I think you could have said that 15 years ago compared to the prior
that 10 or 15 years that that that you know that same person in time 15 years ago could have said
that it's just uh much much uh the the curve is uh quite steeper the last five years
okay for the last five years.
You know, I'm pretty focused on the growth aspect of it too.
The market has been pretty focused on AI.
And I think one thing that a lot of these,
the trade deals might've had a little bit,
the deep seek did a little bit,
but there's still a lot of excitement in that area. And obviously AI, there's the crazy end of it and just the, hey, the small productivity
gains it's going to give across everything in the ecosystem and the type of growth area.
So that's the other side of it that I think a lot of these scares have also lacked a little
bit.
Stock, Stock,
did you have any thoughts?
No, I mean, I agree with pretty much
everything Cantor said. I just think,
you know, I mean, obviously
Cantor, you know, is an institutional guy and he's great.
You should all follow him, by the way. I'm sure a lot of you
already are, but, you know, obviously
the perspective that I give come from more of a
retail and a trading side. And so, you know, obviously the perspective that I give come from more of a retail and a
trading side. And so, you know, there's, you're not, if you're a retail trader out there, you're
not going to approach the market a lot of times the way that you want to ideally either because
of lack of experience or fear or greed or like all of the things that we talked about, all the
volatility that's in the markets these days, all the volatility that's in the markets these days,
all the noise that's in the markets.
Yeah, it's noisy even for me.
I mean, I think the first thing Cantro said when we brought him in here was,
it's been exhausting.
Yeah, it's been exhausting, you know,
especially for a full-time trader, an investor like myself,
who's at their screens all day.
It's especially exhausting if you're in that scenario, you know,
where you're holding baskets of individual stocks and you have crazy headlines that can whipsaw stuff up
five or 10%. It's not an easy thing to manage, especially if you don't have a stomach.
That's another one of my, I brought up some great classic quotes from some great investors on the
space, but that's another one of my favorites, which I think it's from Warren Buffett.
I don't know who said it,
but when they said you don't need a brain
to be an investor, you need a stomach,
that was Warren Buffett, right, Evan?
You're a good quote repertoire.
For some reason, my mind was going to Charlie Munger.
It might have been one of them.
Yeah, that's what I thought.
Anyway, but that's a fantastic quote too, right?
You don't need a brain to make it in the markets.
You need a stomach because it's true.
I mean, you know, somebody else had a great post about this a few weeks ago.
I don't remember what count it was, but I remember seeing it in my feed.
And it was like a big rant about how it's easy to win in markets.
markets and I couldn't agree more. I mean, active traders who trade on like a quarter, you know,
And I couldn't agree more.
for one quarter holds or a couple of week holds or a couple of month holds like I do on some
positions, it's just harder than it needs to be. You know, I mean, it's not hard to win in markets
if you just invest and hold for a long time. I mean, granted, you can't just pick shit and expect to hold it forever and that it'll go up in a straight line that doesn't work.
But if you buy the market, I mean, broadly speaking, the S&P 500 or the Qs or whatever, you'll do well in the long term.
And you won't have to put very much effort into it.
If you want to be an active manager and a stock picker of your own portfolio, that's a harder thing to do.
But I understand why people want to do it in this day and age. You know, they want to
feel like they have control over their own destiny or some people who are younger,
maybe want to take a little bit more risk or feel like they have the time horizon to take
more risk when they're 25 or 30 or 40 or whatever um so i get it and and you know
that's why i guess our spaces are so popular and financial media around stocks is so popular these
days because there's a lot of everyday people out there that want to buy their own stocks and want
to manage their own stocks and you know i can't knock people for wanting that because i i do that
too but um it isn't an easy game if you don't have a stomach.
And in this day and age, it's probably even harder than it was traditionally where, you know,
somebody would bust open the newspaper or go to a headline feed.
And nowadays it's just hitting you in tweets, you know, every 10 minutes.
And you have to digest it all and differentiate what's signal and what's noise and
manage your positions accordingly. It's exhausting. Exhausting is the accurate term there. So
yeah, I'm on the same page with Cantro, but mostly everything. Like I said, we obviously come to the
market from different lenses, but I agree with mostly everything there. And to the point of the
question that I asked them, my sort of opinion on that is,
yeah, I do think the markets have changed.
I think they've changed dramatically.
And, you know, I've only been in the markets
for roughly 13 years now, almost 13 years.
And so I haven't been in for decades.
But in the course of the time that I've traded the markets,
I have noticed that the last five years,
it does feel a little sharper. The volatility does feel a little sharper, even on individual
names. The speculation feels a little bit more durable, if you will. Not that the stocks don't
come up and come back down. Many of them do. But in the sense that many of these speculative thematics have lasted years, whereas, you know, maybe in 2015, 2016, 2017, they were lasting months.
So I don't know. Is that a testament to the fact that retail is more attentive to the market now?
They're more active in the market now. Does the data also suggest that? I think so.
now? Does the data also suggest that? I think so. I think both the data and the anecdotal price
action from somebody who sits in front of a screen all day and watches stocks every day.
I think if you take my anecdotes and take the actual hard data about options exposure,
about retail participation, about retail percentage of total daily notional volume,
and you package that data up and you put it through a lens, I think your conclusion would be that markets have changed.
And that, you know, if you are somebody out there who's a stock picker
and you are somebody out there who's a little bit more risk tolerant
and like maybe you in the audience are who listen to the show every day,
it behooves you to pay attention to that and be cognizant of that, I think, because,
you know, it allows you to capture opportunities in those corners of the market where retail is
very, very active, like some of those thematics that I brought up, like the nuclear stocks,
like the space stocks, you know, that retail has loved for years now and sent them hundreds
and hundreds and hundreds of percent higher. So, yeah, I just think that there's a lot of opportunity in this market
any way you want to play it, whether you want to play it from a top-down view
and you want to take an index-based passive approach,
which despite all my discussions about active trading,
I have been consistent in one thing on this show,
which is telling people that for the vast majority of people,
that's the right thing for you to do is to just buy the market, you know, buy spy or
VLO or whatever vehicle you want to use and the queues and go live your life.
It really is the best thing for most people to do.
And for those that don't and want to be brave and want to have the stomachs and love doing it and love picking stocks, I mean, more power to do. And for those that don't and want to be brave and want to have the stomachs and
love doing it and love picking stocks, I mean, more power to you. I do that too. And I enjoy
doing it. So, you know, it's a it's an interesting market. There's a lot of opportunity. It is hard
to deal with. It is exhausting. I do think it has changed in the last five years versus the five
years prior. And it'll probably change in the next five years, too. I mean, democratization of access to the U.S. markets is only going to increase, right? Prior to
democratization of access for our own citizens, there was an initiative in the 2010s, 2015s,
even through the 2020s, to democratize access to foreign countries for our markets, right? And
you've seen capital inflows into U.S. markets on a foreign basis be
really fantastic for many, many years. And generally, you don't see that with such a
developed economy. Generally, a lot of the foreign investment flows are focused on these emerging
economies that have very, very high growth, a lot of promise. And the U.S. has just remained a
remained a stalwart for foreign investment interest for many years, and that's probably
stalwart for foreign investment interest for many years. And that's probably only going to go up.
only going to go up. And you look at that, and now you magnify it by saying democratization of
access to U.S. stocks globally. You look at the companies that are doing that now in England and
in Canada and in India even. I was actually talking to a friend of mine who works with
Interactive Brokers, and they were talking about how interactive brokers are looking to expand access to u.s stocks in india and in southeast asia and uh he was like yeah it's just
people want to own u.s stocks even in some of the poorest countries in the world the people with
money still want to buy u.s stocks like and so you know what does the trend say we're there's we
we remain fiscally irresponsible.
The money printer remains on.
Interest in stocks is going higher and higher.
Currency is getting weaker and weaker.
News flow is getting hotter and hotter.
It's just like all points in one direction, which is like stocks up.
And will there be crashes along the way? Will there be failed areas of speculation? Will there be companies that go to zero? Yeah, all that good stuff or good, bad stuff will still happen. All the froth removal will still happen. Companies will still crash 30% on earnings. Pre-revenue companies will still go out of business.
Those corrective mechanisms in the market aren't going anywhere.
I'm not implying that they are.
And I'm not implying that you should just speculate to the nth degree with no risk tolerance whatsoever.
That is not the implication of anything of what I'm saying.
But markets have changed, will change, are changing.
Individual people who don't necessarily think purely based off P ratios or balance sheets are bidding stocks up. I mean, Tesla's
retention of a trillion dollar market cap over the past, you know, or ability to stay around that
range for the past five years, in spite of a failing core business, compressing margins,
you know, an extremely high PE ratio, Palantir's ability to do that. So many stocks, and these aren't just
the mid-cap stocks, Tesla and Palantir aren't mid-caps. These are now becoming some behemoth
names on the market are being held up by retail faith in the story. And I would venture to believe
that there will be more of those types of stocks in the next 10 years,
more than there have been historically. Historically, those types of stocks just
maybe they're up there for a year or two years. They're at some nosebleed, ridiculous,
multi-hundred billion dollar valuation. And then they crash just superbly, 90 percent and sometimes
95 percent. And they go back down and and people like, okay, the bubble has been
bursted. I think there's going to be more quote unquote, durable bubbles in individual names.
Like we've seen with Tesla, like we've seen with Palantir, like we will see with other stocks,
in my opinion, some of these 10, 12, $15 billion retail favorites today in 10 years may be 95, 100 billion dollar retail favorites.
The same names.
You know, who am I to say otherwise?
I mean, three, four years ago, that was the case of Palantir.
Three, four years ago, that was the case with Robinhood.
Three, four, five, six, seven years ago, that was the case with Tesla. You know, these were all much, much smaller companies with, you know, that people were like, oh, people thought Tesla was a bubble at a $50 billion valuation.
People thought Palantir was a bubble at a 15 billion dollar valuation you go back and look at the articles written on palantir
and if you go look at look at wall street's opinion on palantir at 15 billion dollar valuation you'd
be like what and now it's whatever 100 whatever billion robin hood now i don't know what the
robin's valuation is but it's also sky high now too you know and that was a five billion dollar
stock people were saying it was overvalued so So the perception that valuate, like the Ben Graham intelligent investor perception evaluation
that many people have been trained on for decades and that people feel like that's the only way to
value a stock. There are stocks that have been defying that now for five years plus. And I think
there'll be more stocks that defy that in the future as a consequence of the changing composition in markets.
Because the reality is, is that when you have 30% retail notional exposure on U.S. daily
trading volume, that number is probably going to go up to 35.
And then, you know, maybe in the next decade or 15 years, it'll go up to 40%.
Maybe not even that high, but whatever, anywhere above 35%, when they're making up
over a third of daily volume, that's a ridiculous amount of power.
To what extent can they hold up more stocks at these valuations?
I would say the probabilities of that are pretty high.
So yeah, I don't know.
I think there's going to be a lot of speculation that ends terribly.
And I think there's going to be other speculation that ends really well. But I think the changing composition of the markets is part of the reason why.
which goes back almost 100 years now, 99 and a half years, goes back to 1926.
And it's kind of the classic measure of value and growth.
And we have a chart that shows the relative performance of value to growth going back to 1926.
And for most of it, it's straight up value outperforming.
I mean, certainly since the 80s, even well before there but um more most more relevant in the
80s it goes straight up uh then you have you know you had the five-year tech bubble in the late 90s
and then back to value up until 07 the peak in value uh in that 100 year chart is in 2007 and it's been straight down more or less uh since since then and i think growth is now i
must be pretty much at a near a new high or pretty close to it uh relative to value or the other way
around value relative to growth at a new low and that's you know that brought about zero well it did two things at gfc one it brought about you know, that brought about zero. Well, it did two things to GFC. One,
it brought about, you know, a decade plus of zero interest rates, which certainly create a lot of
speculation, right? If monetary policy said at zero, don't, don't misunderstand the Fed,
they want stocks to go up. So that's, you know, what happened from 08 forward for many years.
uh, 08 forward for many years. Um, and on top of that, you also had a huge change in the macro
backdrop where I would say probably 2006 was the peak of macro breadth and earnings breadth.
Uh, and that's where the growth really started to outperform value. And, you know, a lot of investors struggled after GFC, like institutional
investors that, you know, grew up in a world of just buy cheap stocks and it
works and, uh, you know, classic, uh, DCF, you know, looking for value.
And it's just, it just, uh, broadly, uh, did not work, uh, in terms of at least
relative performance to growth stocks.
And, you know, the NASDAQ has probably outperformed, I don't know, 90% or more of the years since
08 or 09.
And so to me, that's kind of what got it started and started a lot of the speculation uh and then covid and everything that's taken
place thereafter uh it's just exacerbated it so you know i think there's a whole generation
investors that are just not value investors i.e pre-07 because it just hasn't been
pre-07 because it just hasn't been, uh, as good of a strategy, you know, rightfully so because of
the interest rate environment and because of the global earnings growth environment or the U.S.
earnings growth environment, uh, since, since then. So it's just created, I think, a different um perception of risk and all of that's kind of compounded been
compounded and accelerated with all the everything you just you know we talked about
yep yeah it's it's it's been interesting i mean you know, I've honestly tried my best to sort of, uh, attempt
to factor it into the psychology approach that I use because for me, I mean, I, I often classify
myself as a catalyst trader. That's a simplification really of what I do. I'm, I build a portfolio of individual stocks and I choose to enter them, generally speaking,
eight out of 10 times on a catalyst because I feel like it improves my ability to time the markets.
Obviously, timing the markets is the hardest thing to do, but I think it improves my ability,
albeit fractionally, to time the markets when I enter stocks on quality
catalysts. And so that's the guided approach that I use. And as a consequence of that,
I try to factor some sort of psychological analysis into my approach. In other words,
if I see a blockbuster report on a smid cap stock from, I mean, we have cancer up here. I read a lot of Piper
research, but from Piper or from Craig Hallam or from Benchmark, or I read something I like
and I go look at the chart and it's an industry or thematic I like, and I buy the stock.
Part of that approach is sort of attempting to analyze the retail or the shareholder psychology, if you will,
for me to say, hey, is this report blockbuster or bold or insightful enough that I think it will
excite shareholders to buy more stock or excite prospective shareholders to buy stock.
Or if it's not a sell-side catalyst, let's say it's a partnership,
I'll ask myself, do I think the associated name is blue chip or flashy enough to excite interest in the stock,
to excite prospective buyers?
Or if I'm looking at, let's say, a contract, I'll say,
hey, look, is there durable revenue?
Does this improve visibility? How is this going to affect analyst estimates on a five-year basis?
That's how I'll assess the quality of the catalyst in those instances. But the point is,
it depends on the catalyst. I have some sort of metric by which I attempt to identify the quality,
my perceived quality of the impact on the stock, my perceived quality of the impact on the stock, my perceived quality of the
impact on the psychology of the shareholders of that stock, the prospective shareholders of that
stock. And so I've tried to, in my attempts to analyze those things, factor in this changing
composition in markets in the last five years. And frankly, it's worked well. I've tried to accept the fact that
there is enough retail money in the markets now that when I really think a $5 billion, $6 billion
stock in a hot theme with an amazing technical setup, with promising earnings potential,
promising earnings potential, when it's in this position where there's multiple factors in favor
of it, I'm more inclined to buy it because I feel like there's enough retail money in the markets
now that I don't need institutions to go and buy it. If it's exciting and compelling enough to the
broader retail community, there's enough retail money, more than enough retail money out there to double a four or $5 billion stock. There's more than
enough retail money out there to 10X a four or five or billion dollar stock. You don't even need
institutional interest, you know? And so that realization to me in the last five years has
changed the way I stock pick. Like it it's, it's funny, because I
would the way I would describe it in a nutshell is I trade more, quote, unquote, shit codes now,
or perceived shit codes. And what I mean by shit code isn't just like a shit stock or pre revenue
stock, what can be what I mean is, is like an an, like overvalued stocks or, or stocks that
like the Warren Buffett's
of the world
wouldn't even touch.
Like,
I'm more willing
to buy those types of stocks
because
I've acknowledged
that
the composition
of the markets
have changed
and there's more
speculative money now
as a consequence of that.
And so I think
acknowledging that
is a, is a good thing,
you know, because it's a reality. Like the data has changed, right? The makeup of the markets
has changed. It's not an opinion. I mean, you know, I went over five or six data sets there
with Cantra about zero DTE volume, retail participation volume. Those are just facts,
right? So you have to decide, does that change? Like the only way
you could really believe that markets haven't changed is that if you believe that retail money
acts identically to institutional money. And if you're in the audience right now,
ask yourself that question. Do you genuinely believe that the
average retail investor out there is managing their money even remotely similarly to the
institutions? I don't. I don't even think 5% of the retail investors out there are doing that.
I think the vast majority of retail investors out there, the vast majority
are operating their portfolios with their intuition, with what they believe in
and what they have conviction in. That would be my guess. And I don't think it's too off target
either. I mean, if you talk to the average retail investor, you ask them what stocks they own. And I'm not talking about the stocks they have
for a trade. I'm talking about the stocks that they own with conviction in size that they don't
sell. If you ask the average retail investor about those stocks, they will tell you a story.
They won't tell you the P ratio. They won't tell you if it's an investment, they probably won't tell you about
the chart. What they'll tell you is they'll say, yeah, dude, like ASTS or Tesla or Rocket Lab or
Palantir or Robinhood. They'll tell you a story. They'll be like, yeah, I really believe in this
company that many of them don't even know the market cap. And to be clear, I'm not knocking
retail here. What I'm saying is, is that they have an entirely different thesis to their investments
and reading of their investments and management of their investments than an institutional entity
would do. An institutional entity isn't buying anything at 130x. Well, nowadays, maybe because
they don't have a choice because many of the best stocks in the world are trading at those prices now
but you know in a base case scenario value investors aren't going out there
and buying these stocks these stocks are being bought by people who believe in the long-term
durability of the things that these companies are working on like palantir investors aren't out
there hoping that palantir makes 50 Palantir investors aren't out there hoping
that Palantir makes $50 billion next quarter. They're out there hoping that Palantir controls
AI infrastructure 10 years from now and has the assets to justify its valuation.
The same thing with Tesla investors. Somebody brought up Tesla deliveries earlier, I think,
when we were going through the panel.
I was walking Leo, I think, at the time.
But somebody brought up Tesla deliveries.
That may be a negative catalyst.
Yeah, maybe intraday the stock would go down 10% on that.
But net-net, the stock has not traded on that at all.
I mean, anyone who follows that stock knows what that stock trades on.
It trades on hype, trades on expectation of the products.
Do you think people paying a trillion dollars for Tesla today are paying it for paying that for the car business
does anyone really believe that and that's why I always laugh when these people say Tesla's a car
business no the market is explicitly telling you that it's not there's a car business be trading
a 20 billion market the market is the market is smarter than anyone so none of us are
smarter than the market okay the market tells you what it thinks of a stock based on the the what
the valuation is that's what the market tells you and the market is telling you explicitly no we do
not think this is a car company investors are not buying that stock at a trillion dollar evaluation
they're even institutional investors now buying it at a near trillion dollar valuation. Do you think for the car business? Of course, fucking not.
They think that there's a chance, maybe a 10% chance, maybe a 20% chance that Tesla solves
vision based autonomy for all transportation platforms. And there are people that think
that that's worth trillions of dollars, and it could be. And there's investors who think that maybe there's a 10% chance or 20% chance or 30% chance or 40% chance,
whatever it is, there's a probability X probability that they win the humanoid robotics race.
And that could be a trillion, multi-trillion dollar opportunity.
This is what these stocks are priced on. They're not priced on the balance sheet.
They're priced on the expectation of future opportunity. And the truth is, is that whereas
Wall Street genuinely, genuinely looks at stocks on a quarter to quarter basis, retail is willing
to look much further out. Retail is willing to buy a stock today for what they think the stock will do in
20 years. And that has been the greatest ally for retail. Retail beat Wall Street to Palantir.
Retail beat Wall Street to Tesla. Retail beat Wall Street to Nvidia. Retail beat Wall Street
to every monster performer, Robinhood. Like every major market-leading story of the last five years, retail was first.
Not just like first by 10 or 20%, like really first.
Like there was people talking about NVIDIA's AI data chips on Twitter,
like a quarter and a half before OpenAI even released chat GPT,
before a single analyst covered it, right? There were people on Twitter talking about it,
retail traders on Twitter saying, yo, like what if NVIDIA could repurpose their gaming chips to
train artificial intelligence? You can go back and find crazy posts that have insane
amount of comments from like, January 2025, people going back to these posts, like, holy shit.
Like, like, how did no one see this coming? And I mean, like, you have to give retail props.
Retail isn't an insult anymore. Like it's not the retail has beat wall street to like the best stocks of the last
five years so yeah the market's changing and you could choose to ignore it and say
that stock's overvalued i'd never own it you know um the p.e ratio is too high
you will miss the best performing stocks if you think that way period end of story there's like literally no other way to say it and i come from look i was taught by guys who care about value i was taught
by balance sheet guys that's how i was taught about markets by the guy that i always referenced
my my mentor who's hedge fund mentor he's that type of guy he doesn't buy these types of stocks
that i buy in fact he gets mad at me sometimes when i talk to him he'd be like what do you have
in the port right now you're like like, ask me what I bought the
last week. And I'm like, oh, I bought, you know, this company with 25% short interest. And he's
like, what the fuck are you doing? Why are you buying that? He's like, that thing, that thing's
shit. It's overvalued. And I'm like, dude, the chart's good. The catalyst is good. Like,
and he doesn't get that. Even though he taught me, he was the first person to teach me a market because he doesn't get that. So it's like there's going to be a resistance by the people who have traded in the last 30 to 40 to 50 years to say, no, you know, all bubbles pop.
This will all come falling down.
Me and Cantrell were just talking earlier about like your definition of a crash, right?
And I agree with Cantrell.
It's hard to like decide what is really a crash, right?
Does the market have to crash for multiple years?
Does it crashing for a day count?
But whatever your definition is, we've had two, three very different, quote unquote,
corrections in the last five years.
Three of them.
of them. COVID, this precipitous quick drop that had a V-shaped recovery. 2022, slow bleed,
COVID, this precipitous quick drop that had a V-shaped recovery.
30% peak to trough drawdown. Early this year, two quick back-to-back events, deep seek,
then tariffs, basically two knockout punches for the market in a row, markets down 20%.
Those are all three very different types of corrections, right? They all looked very different, but they were all brutal for stocks, okay?
In all of those instances, look at these stocks that we talked about.
Look at Tesla, Robinhood, Nvidia, Palantir.
Did they go down during the corrections? Yes.
Net, net, after all three corrections, did the bubbles pop?
Like has the bubble in Tesla pop?
Is it trading at a 20 billion valuation now?
Nope.
But has the bubble in Palantir pop?
Nope.
It's trading at near all time highs or at all time highs or whatever it's at.
Why?
I thought bubbles pop, right they do but once they popped the market leaders go back to
leading and the favorite names go back to leading as long as they don't go out of business obviously
and that happens i'm not i'm not trying to promise you guys that no stocks ever go out of business
they do but like when when was the tesla. They do. But when was the Tesla bubble supposed
to have popped? When was the Palantir bubble supposed to have popped? When was the Robinhood
bubble supposed to have popped? When was the NVIDIA bubble supposed to have popped? When did
these bubbles pop? Was it 2020? Was it 2022? Was it earlier this year after DeepSeek, what is it going to take? Is it going to take a nuclear world war?
No, the reality is, is that once liquidity comes back into the markets, it goes into
the places that it wants to go, period.
It's not going to magically go into the boring stocks because there's fear in the world.
This is why I push so hard against these sort of defensive, permanently defensive
types of traders and investors, because I think it's foolish, frankly. I get wanting to be
conservative, but being permanently positioned in these defensive type of stocks is just, to me,
a position of fear. Like, all things being equal, when markets are going up,
there, yeah, there's a lot of speculation, but the attention always goes to the same place.
And for the last three decades, every time we're in a bull market, you have to own tech.
You just have to own it. If you don't own it, what are you doing? If you're not overweight
tech when the markets are going up, what are you even doing? And that basket is going to look
different, right? Like this cycle, it's been semiconductors. There's always a different
portion of the tech basket that's going to be, sometimes it's software. Sometimes there's been
different cycles, which have even been tech hardware but there's going
to be a portion of the basket that's going to be the the leader but generally speaking technology
stocks have been the place to be for the last 30 years and will be the place to be for the next 30
years they pave the future they drive all the efficiency they get all the attention they have
all the sex appeal they have all the innovation they have frankly all the money you look at all
the multi-trillion dollar companies in the world the vast majority are tech companies and the vast majority
are american tech companies and so they're the place to be and they have been the place to be
um but yeah we are damn we were running super late here we got some long ago
i realized what time it was still what like what, like 500 people in here? What are you guys doing?
How do you guys listen to me for this long?
I don't even know what tangent I went on.
I don't even know if Emp is still here.
Emp, are you still here?
Emp is probably AFK as well.
But, yeah, it's just me up here, I guess.
I'm just alone up here.
All right, guys.
Well, we will wrap this up and see you guys tomorrow.
Take it easy. Thank you.
