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STOCK MARKET TALK with Motley Fool Asset Management
Recorded: March 2, 2026 Duration: 2:40:02Space Recording
Full Transcription
What is up?
Everybody, I hope I sound well.
I'm just not 100% sure if I'm connected to my headphones or not.
I am now.
We just got a little thing there.
I hope you are all doing well.
Obviously, there's a crazy time going on in the world.
War has literally broken out since we last were on the Stocks on Spaces.
Market is obviously a market show. That's where the focus is going to be. literally broken out since we last were on the stocks on spaces market is uh but we're obviously
a market show that's where the focus is going to be i do see scott redler joining us up here
the scott redler mondays i love it i enjoy it uh it was an interesting day so far we we started off
red obviously markets initial reaction to war breaking out. Oil, precious metals, defense stocks were moving higher to start the day.
As we moved on throughout the day, we went from red to green across a lot of different parts of
the market. I did see some precious metals take a little bit of a step back. I didn't check too
far into the defense names, but I do know oil was able to, you know, came back a little bit from the
highs, but it's still holding in pretty strong there.
I know there's a lot of conversations around oil and the straight-up Hormuz and all these different conversations going on.
I am sure we will be discussing that a lot on here.
But as always, stock market show, that's going to be the main focus.
Scott, how are you doing, sir?
I'm seeing you muted, Scott.
Sorry about that.
How's it going?
My bad.
No, you're good.
I'm doing fantastic.
I thought I was going to be fine.
I'm doing fantastic, though.
We got some travel coming up.
We got an event I'm going to this week, which maybe we'll talk about later.
Obviously, stuff is going on around the world, but in my little bubble, I'm still doing well.
I hope you're doing the same.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I was in Miami this weekend for Traders for a Cause.
It was a great event.
A lot of people from the last 10, 15, 25 years of being in the market got to see everybody.
Pretty much donating money for good causes.
Everyone has their own causes.
So that was cool.
And, you know, I obviously saw the news hit like everybody else.
And I think by Friday afternoon, most people were pretty risked down considering the action of the market.
And most sectors were a little tricky, nothing acting so super special.
So I wasn't really concerned.
I actually had spy puts on coming in.
So I was hoping we'd be down like 100 handles just to at least make some really good money there versus, you know, a tease.
But anyway, a few things that, you know, a lot of people were talking about or I started to notice was, you know, Saturday morning you had that spike down in crypto and then kind of crawled its way back up.
And then on Sunday, a little hungover after a great event with the foundation, I looked and I saw my crypto account up.
I'm like, oh, my crypto account's up.
I'm like, oh, wow, Bitcoin's up now.
I'm like, hmm.
Later in the afternoon, a few of my friends were like, are we going to gap down or are we just taking this in stride?
I'm like, well, Bitcoin doesn't seem to care.
And usually it trades with the S&P futures.
So it'll be interesting to see what goes on.
So futures opened up.
I mean, opened at six o'clock and they were down 45 and Bitcoin was flat.
I was like, that's OK.
That's something to recognize.
So P.S. I came in this morning, like I always do. I put my levels on the table. I had the chart up
of the spies and the cues. I'm like, listen, if we stay below 680, maybe the bears have some power
to break the 100 day, which they haven't done in months. If they can't stay below 680 and we reclaim Friday's low of 681.65,
chances are it takes the pressure off.
Same thought if you simplify it.
If the Qs can't stay below 599 or 602 even,
chances are that can go up and relieve some pressure.
We'll have some key sectors to think about.
I talked about in the
Six Duty Club on how software looked pretty good and how Microsoft was down small and that maybe
the IGV makes a higher low and that maybe we could buy Oracle right away. Software went green.
And lastly, NVIDIA. I saw some of the news over the weekend about Anthropic and there was a few
articles on how it's even better for NVIDIA.
And I'm like, you know what?
I'm like, let's see if NVIDIA could break, you know, reclaim 176.
And I was buying NVIDIA pre-market down a dollar.
I'm still in it from this morning.
You know, so far, so good, a nice day trade.
So for me, this is probably my best day in like a few weeks.
And I came in pretty risked down.
So it goes to show you that, you know, you can be tactical and make money.
Now we'll see what's next.
If they have some commitment to what happened today,
you would have thought that if they wanted to break the range,
they probably could have done it today because it didn't seem like a one-hit wonder over the weekend.
It might go for a while.
So all in all, pretty impressive if you're flexible
and you make some moves with multiple game plans without strong opinions.
Yeah, that makes sense.
Obviously, with all this stuff going on, it's, you know,
not everything is the same, but history often kind of rhymes.
It doesn't repeat.
I'm sure there are playbooks that you kind of think of in this scenario.
I don't know if maybe it's defensive in certain areas maybe it's going for to where the momentum is maybe it's oil maybe it's some other stuff but um i know you were
talking about there that your kind of thoughts coming into this like uh there's also some
sayings and people you know the market doesn't like the it's it's more scared of uncertainty
than the actual events happening so a lot of the times it's more of the clarity and it's more scared of uncertainty than the actual events happening.
So a lot of the times it's more of the clarity
and it's not being as bad as expected.
So I would imagine you kind of had a playbook coming into this.
They kind of say sell the rumor, buy the bombs.
You know, that was an Art Cashin saying from back in the day.
You know, so I get that.
Listen, this morning, a lot of the trends that were already intact,
you know, were in place.
The XLE was already strong.
There were probably traders in the XLE.
Actually, right now as we speak, something probably just came out because spies got cut in half.
We got some news here.
Yeah, there must be something.
Something probably got hit.
Hang on.
IRGC guard commander says straight up Hormuz is closed.
Any ship touring will be targeted.
All right. There you go.
All right. So, again,
it's just so funny. From 678,
680 up to 688, that's when news hits. You would...
Right at the higher
end of the lower upper range.
So, anyway, I wasn't expecting the spies to go to new all-time highs today.
There's no reason for that.
But, you know, it did, you know, reclaim the lower level.
It did give you a few trades.
And this is probably a spot where it should pause anyway.
So it's a likely spot for news.
But before that, I was just saying that, you know, that the XLE has been strong.
Silver last week was strong. Gold last week was strong.
So there were some people who who came in today and they were getting paid because of just the technicals before, you know, the bombs dropped.
And one I guess one clue that maybe the war trade wouldn't hold as well was, you by the time the market opened silver was already down
you know it wasn't quite as down as gold but you know you know come uh whatever time it was i was
like you know what my gold's still up twelve dollars the gld and silver is red chances are
you you definitely don't buy gld if anything you could short it and that went from you know
492 down to 483 so there's still ways to navigate things without having to take
excessive risk overnight, trying to be, you know, the smartest guy in the room.
And now, like, if you want to think about it, the VWAP of the spies is 684.57.
So with this news, I'm not in the indices anymore. I would probably look to see if, hey,
you know, spies were just 688 plus, could you now buy 684.57 for a trade?
The Qs were just, you know, 605.92.
I mean, not 605, 609.92.
The VWAP is 605.92.
So that's how you handle these days.
You know, you play the over-emotion, and then you see where potentially things are not in no man's land, and you could trade them for additional small pieces of cash flow.
In general, would you think this was like a size-down type of day?
No, I think it was a size-down day on Friday.
Today was your day.
You came in light.
You were able to make some money.
And then, you know, you can't just sit.
You got to take your trades in areas of the range.
If you bought the Spies, want to reclaim 680 or 681, you know, 65, there's no reason to be in it still at 688.
You know, you're probably taking that off at 684, maybe 686.
You're real, real, real small.
You know, if anything, some people probably start taking the other side of the trade at 686,
thinking we weren't going to run away.
But when you get a rally like this, what I do say to people is,
if you get a reversal like this, which not everything reversed,
if you were jumping out of your skin with the headlines over the weekend,
that means you have too much on, you're over your skis,
and you should just be taking some things off,
because chances are you couldn't handle what you had on.
Yeah, that definitely makes sense. And I'm not saying rocket science here.
But consistently, whenever the president wants to do a military action, it seems like it's just going to consistently happen over the weekend, or when the markets are closed. But his favorite
time when the markets close is the weekend. So when stuff's getting close, I mean've we've been sitting here on the last couple Fridays no one really wanted to be long so
it's not like it came up out of totally nowhere nope he usually does what he says he's gonna do
whether you like it or not or whether he likes it or not um yeah he's not smoking mirrors
like most people out there not to talk politics i'm just in general so it shouldn't have been
too much of a surprise.
I mean, I think the market was forecasting this on Friday, Scott.
I mean, look at oil on Friday and look at, you know, how the action was.
I mean, it was hanging well, but it kind of figured it was acting like it knew
this was coming this weekend, you know, and then, you know,
the normal reaction, you drop on the bombs and then you come right back up.
But I mean, this isn't really a surprise.
I mean, we've been talking mean this isn't really a surprise. I mean we've been
talking about this for weeks and months now. I mean it takes a long time to move all the equipment
that we have in the Gulf there. And so we talked about this in January. I was buying Oxy and Devin
calls for April back then and you know a lot of people came in today thinking, oh, I'm going to buy energy or buy oil because of this is happening. And they actually top ticked a lot of these names. And so it's super important that you're paying attention, not just to like, you know, the top line news or what some guru is saying on Twitter, but that you're actually watching the price action in conjunction with whatever you think the news flow is.
And if the price action is not,
if it's not truing up with the narrative,
if the technicals are not truing up,
then something's wrong, right?
I think a lot of people really got smashed this morning
by trying to hop on some of these names
and they top ticked the day so far.
I'll be honest. I don't know one person that bought the XLE today unless you're some
No one in our network, you know, they've been in the XLE since like you said December January
They just got an extra saucy gift because it was up more than it probably should have been if we didn't you know
If we didn't bomb there, but yeah
I'm sure there are people out there that were like listening to TV and said, oh, I got to buy the X Elite today now or I have to buy silver now, not knowing that it was just up for three weeks leading into it.
So yeah, you definitely need to know where these things came from and what was anticipated and what was priced in.
But again, we've been doing this a long time, so we just feel like everybody knows that.
But that's probably not the truth.
One thing I was telling you.
Nobody in our network bought it because we were kind of in a bubble.
I mean, we've been doing it a long time.
My community's got lots more smarter people than me in it.
So I'm just saying there's a danger to being a casual in the market, right?
And the danger is you think that you can trade off of news and it's very hard to do,
but you don't have to go very far into curating some good sources.
I'll give you an example.
John Arnold, one of the best natural gas and oil traders in history, youngest billionaire in the United States ever at 2007, former Enron trader.
He's on Twitter.
You can literally look at his analysis of what's going on. Now, he says, here's what he's saying.
He's saying, Strait of Hormuz closes for a couple days a week, not a big deal.
The question is, will it be closed in three weeks?
So if you bought calls or you bought oil and energy stocks a month and a half ago, six months ago, in anticipation for what's happening right now,
you sell. If you think this is going to be a long-term thing, like this is going to be same way in a couple of months, you wait for a little bit of a pullback or a basing,
and then you could buy again. But it's all about timing, right? It's all about what your time frame
is and listening to people that know what they're talking about we were my room and i we were online
together at 6 p.m last night selling our micro crew crew contracts onto that opening pop right
everybody who had them got in was selling you know we traded the yes a little bit off of the action
then and again at eight o'clock but everybody was getting out of all their crew little mini crew
contracts they were trading the micros look because you know that was the pop no look nobody wants war to happen right but if it's gonna happen i was hoping it would at
least happen during the week because and hopefully during market hours because then i could have sold
those devon and oxy calls at the big pop like the one we saw when things opened up on sunday night
because there was actually down from that by the time the actual market opened. I mean, the names were up, but yeah, so that was a super smart move, Mike. But again,
you're in a kind of a curated group and you've been doing this for a long time. But I just,
I worry whenever we're doing these spaces, I'm always thinking about the person that's out there
that maybe isn't inside baseball like us. And I want to try to think of a way that not even
necessarily to help them make money,
but to help them not lose money first and then help them make money.
So that's, that's kind of why I'm coming from.
You have to look at things differently, right? So for me, like,
I looked at Netflix and Netflix had that upgrade this morning and I said,
I don't care. I'm not touching it.
Look at the size of the move in the last four days.
I'm waiting for this thing to cool off.
It just wasn't a name I was interested in trading today after the the four day move it just had here right it was just like i just wasn't going to be
i traded the other day did nice did well with it but i wasn't going to touch it here and i think
you have to have that ability to look at something and say well look look how far this thing's moved
it's moved like 20 bucks in four days which is what it's more than 20 you know this is not the
time to chase it just because jp morgan or we Stanley upgraded it. Yeah. Let me give you, let me give
you a hyper example of timeframe. So last Monday, we were all here on the spaces. We're talking,
the market was in trouble. It looked horrible. We were talking about what we were interested in.
One of the names I said I was interested in because I thought it was holding up really good
was ONDS, right? And so you could have bought ONDS
that day and it didn't violate the low of, you know, it held a level. And today it was up 20%,
but guess what? It sold off massively. So if you bought that stock and you had a short timeframe
on it and it gave you a gift of 20% this morning, you should have been taking profits on it. If you didn't take profits on it and you're not a long-term investor, that little window there,
that timing window, you missed it, right? And that's how crucial it is to understand what your
window is. And those windows can be super fast. If you're a long-term ONDS holder, fine. But like,
you got to know what your timeframes are. and then you have to act in concert with those timeframes to make sure you ring the register
Well, two two things on that one a you know that I remember you saying that and you know from 15 down to aid and change
Wherever it was definitely made sense and I agreed with you
And then it you know didn't really give you such a clue that like like oh nds knew that there was gonna be war this weekend
But I will will say you know you can't sell the whole thing you need to use a tier system especially if
you want to be in it for the rest of the year today but i feel like i feel like today was it
was harder with these because it didn't they they weren't you know they haven't had multi-week moves
where it just looked like it was putting a floor in. So for this to sell, for these to sell off the way they sold off because of AVAV today on a double downgrade, I think some guys got hurt there.
I know I lost some money buying.
I waited for a point that I think we're going to get a huge topping tail in AVAV and ONDS and UMAC and all these things on a day where they were included in the war trade in a time when people think drones are going to be so important for the next year or two.
I'm just saying that to me was harder to see,
that it would have given up the whole move,
because it was only up 50 cents this morning.
ONDS was up 50 cents at 9 o'clock.
You could have bought all you wanted,
and then there was heavy volume,
and it looked like it could have been a trade that stayed all day,
and now here it is at 1039,
and now you have an ugly bearish candle.
And that just kind of sucks.
I'm just saying for those who like this group.
But that's kind of the way trading's been the past month or so.
Where it doesn't feel like they're doing anything that really makes a whole lot of 100% sense.
It has to make only a little bit of sense.
And if you missed the part that made a little bit of sense, you get hurt on the second part because there's no second and
third part, at least when you want it to be. Yeah, 100%. I mean, I'm just saying it's important
to understand what your strategy is, what your timeframe is, and then you manage your position
based upon that. So I'm getting into ONDS because I think it's a longer term play so here's
what I did I sold puts at the money when it was at nine when it rocketed to 11 I rolled them back
up to 11 like I want to take ownership of those shares right but I'm trying to get into it
strategically over time trying to get my cost basis down that's a different play than somebody
that's trying to get it for a quick 10, 15% spike.
And so you manage it differently.
All I'm saying is that when someone's buying a stock, they have to know why they're buying it.
They have to know what their timeframe is.
And if they know those two things, there's generally a managing methodology that matches that.
And the problem is that people sometimes – we've all done this.
Whenever I talk like this, I'm talking to myself because I just have to keep self-reinforcing, right?
Because I'll make the same mistake next week that I made last month.
But if I say, oh, this is a trade and based upon a trade, I should be selling or closing my position, certain metrics, you know, the aid, EMA, whatever.
And then I go, well, maybe I'll give it a little bit more time.
And then I go, well, maybe I'll give it a little bit more time.
That's fine.
But I have to be honest with myself and say, I just changed my management methodology.
And that may be a bad choice and I may lose money.
Right.
No, no, I get it.
I was just pointing out that there were some trades that made sense that you didn't want to chase some of the energy and oil and even gold and silver this morning.
But I kind of felt like this drone trade was a little predatory that that they reversed the entire thing you know
i would have thought like hey you know 15 down to 10 or 9 or 8 you know go to 11 12 hang here and
work its way back towards those highs not give back the you know the majority of it but you know
but that's again where the market's kind of been by the way i mentioned
earlier i said i've got much better traders in my community than me what about you scott you got
people in your community that are better than you well it all it's all relative you know i know it's
relative you know i'm saying they might be more active um they don't you know fulfill content so
they're just trading they might take more size. Like I don't measure who's better,
who's not by their P&L. I say that I have the alpha team, which has right now 304 people on
there and they're talking sometimes where I'm not even on there. I'm on here or some of them are
listening. You know, I leave during the day to go to Fox Business or do something. They're talking,
you know, they're like, they're kind of like my analyst team, you know, my community, same as
yours, I'm sure where some things they do where I know some guys trade nuclear names really well.
So if I need something there, I'll ask them if, you know, if there's a bio or some kind of information on a bio, I know who to ask.
So everyone just does everything a little different.
But it's really like just one big think tank where, you know, it's like a touch away, whatever kind of information you need, you know, who to go to, how to get it and where to go. And for me, I'm just like the backbone where, you know,
I get up early and I put my 40 charts in. Out of the 40 charts, maybe I'll do six or seven of them.
I posted 40 charts today with all action areas. I came in pretty flat. All I did today is I bought
Apple $1.50 or so to go green because I sold it well on Friday. I bought Nvidia pre-market.
I'm still in Nvidia.
I bought Robinhood pre-market because I was thinking that Bitcoin changed a little bit.
I bought a little Oracle after I saw the strength in Microsoft.
So I did four or five things out of the 40 things that I posted.
Other people did five other things out of the 40 things that I did.
Some people might have done 10 or 15 things.
So it just depends on your time, your bandwidth,
and is it your group or not?
To be honest, my biggest loss today is RDW
because I sold it well at 13, 14,
and I thought the drones were back in play,
and I started buying it on the pullback
at like 960 from 1040,
and I probably have too much now.
I'm like, really? this is what this is gonna do
you know um and i stared at onds because i sold puts and i wanted to back involve
and thank goodness you know i didn't because i probably would have been buying thinking that
there's no way this thing's going to close at 1035 today or lower but um so it just goes to
show you that even you know guys like us like us can get spun around a little bit.
Yeah, I mean, people ask me.
Big volume.
Big volume on O&D yesterday, too.
Well, 150 million shares, 165.
This is not light volume.
There's another one that's looking interesting.
The At The Money calls for POET are kind of spiking in IV, which is interesting.
I'm actually in POET.
I'm in it, too. that's why i said that i'm hoping something's happening that's why i'm hoping mike what do you take
a look at po what do you think of the options you see anything in the options flow and poet
say yes yeah i didn't see anything today let me take a look but the reason i the reason i brought
that up scott is because like people ask me all the time,
well, you're such a great trader.
Why aren't you just sitting in a room trading by yourself?
And I say, because number one, I'm already doing this work, so it's great to share it.
But to be honest, I get more out of my community than maybe they get out of me.
I'm so happy and so honored to have a group that is smart, that has so many different levers to pull and so many different ways of looking at the market.
Twitter used to be this way to some extent.
You could kind of curate your following, and now it's just full of bots, and it's horrible.
So having a community that you can bounce ideas off, see a different perspective, someone maybe has a longer term play that you didn't look at.
I just think it's great.
And I think, you know, so that's why I say, like,
I think there's lots of smarter people than me.
Like you, I just feel like I'm the facilitator
that tries to keep it all moving in the right direction.
Nothing really special on the flow today on Poet.
I mean, how dare you?
How dare you?
How dare you?
Sorry.
I just want to say something more on what you just said about the community,
because I didn't want to be interpreted wrong.
I feel the exact same way.
Like, you know, it's your big team.
And sometimes if I'm not on the virtual trade when I'm traveling for business
and I'm coaching people in some other state,
like I need my virtual trade for so I could see, you know,
and I have the confidence of all what my guys are doing also.
And I hate to be a little greedy, too.
Like, I definitely sometimes make a lot more money off of some of the inexperienced guys that are really good at finding things, but they're not good at pressing buttons.
And there are a lot of guys like us that, you know, could make really good money off of, you know, being a sponge.
Like, I could listen to 40 things and pick the three things that I might not have seen, and I could make a lot of money there. So they're paying money to be in the community,
and I'm making a lot of money off of what they're asking me. But again, it's all together,
but they get my answers also. And another thing I think he said that was so funny is the same
thing with Twitter. Like Twitter, I don't look at my comments as much because every time I tweet
something, it's a bot, it's a this, it's that and it's it's just not interesting anymore it's really hard so I just disseminate my information
on Twitter for whoever needs it because I'm not a bot I do the 630 club every morning for whoever
wants to watch it because it's real time real good information for free and if they can make
money with my 630 club maybe they'll come to the alpha team you know or red dog mindset but I rarely
look at my Twitter because it's hard to see anything that they're saying the alpha team you know or red dog mindset but i i rarely look at my twitter because it's hard to
see anything that they're saying the alpha team right over here i can see people talking all day
long and everyone here is real they're all paid they're not robots they're not fishing they're
not doing stuff so you know just for everyone out there you should be in a community with people
you trust whether it's everyone you know the guys here with us or, you know,
and then, you know, more importantly during the day.
But the Twitter community is just, it's a lot different now, in my opinion.
And you say guys, and I know you're not using that gender specific.
You're using it as just an easy word.
But, like, it's important.
Yeah, because we've got lots of.
Yeah, I'm sorry.
Who's in ours? Yeah, I'm sorry. Yeah, because we've got lots of ladies, women in our community.
And look, I'm going to tell you, I don't care if this is controversial or not. I think women look at the market different than guys.
And that's not a good or bad thing.
I think it's a valuable thing.
Like, I've found that a lot of the best traders out there are
women. I have found, anecdotally, they are a lot less emotional about things. Sometimes guys get
their ego involved and they can't cut a position or they get too big. I've found a lot of female
traders like, yeah, no, I'm out of that. And so having that balance, right? And also having
a community where women are not intimidated to come in because there's not a lot of testosterone
in the way. I love that. I love that mix. I see the thing about the markets, the market is the
most egalitarian mechanism out there. It doesn't care what your race is, what your background is,
who your father was, how much money you have, your gender orientation.
It just cares if you do the work, and if you do the work, it will pay you off.
And I like having a wide variety of opinions and perspectives.
And like I said, I feel it makes me a better trader, let alone the rest of the community.
Yeah, and I do have a lot of women in my virtual trading floor
and on my Twitter, and I saw a lot of them over the weekend,
and I agree that, you know, they're awesome.
Sometimes they are less emotional, and, you know,
they're less impulsive, and just everyone's the same, too.
Like, I just say the word guys.
No, I hate to say it, like, no, I don't think many women that trade are offended if I say guys instead of addressing everyone.
But someone who's not a trader looking in from the outside saying, oh, is that, you know, a dog not using the appropriate terms for every single person on his feet on this, on that?
Let me report him.
The active women traders aren't reporting me because we're all like, you know, we're not saying that I'm going to get myself in trouble.
I'm just going to shut up.
Sometimes we go that path, but you're good.
You're good.
You're not saying anything there.
It does feel like when you're investing, like picking good companies doesn't seem to be the hard part here.
It feels and even picking the right things to go in and trade in.
It's everything in between that.
When you click the button and when you click the sell, sell seems to and trade in, it's everything in between that.
When you click the button and when you click the sell,
sell seems to be hard, but it's the emotions.
It's getting in your head.
It's the FOMO.
It's the greed.
It's all that stuff there that I know for me,
I can listen to all these smart people come in and do stuff,
but I'm going to hold the position too long because I'm going to have greed at some point,
and I'm probably going to end up turning into an,
I mean, someone else could have seen the same thing,
had good systems and built out and then do it.
And it also seems like a lot of people know what they need to do.
It is actually doing it every single day and not letting your emotions get to,
which is easier said than done. That seems to be the difference.
At least what I've seen from the
outside looking in. I would agree. You know, yeah, it's, you know, sometimes everyone has
their own problems. Like I, I don't, you know, I, I think sometimes I might sell too early,
not give it more time. You know, like sometimes I'm, I'm a little perfect that by the time I do
my first sale I should
be doing my third buy which a lot of guys who might be bigger that I know for a longer time
that have made more money in the industry you know I see them getting a trade wrong and they're in
pain you know I start getting in after they're down one one leg and then they're buying it when
I'm buying it and then they're adding to it and I'm getting out into that ad instead of
staying there and I had better prices. So we all have our demons and things that we could all work
on. It's just identifying what that is and being honest with it. Yeah, I always tell people that
are struggling in the market, I'm not even kidding. I say the first thing you should do is go to
therapy. I'm serious. Therapy is good in general, but there's something about
the emotions that the greed and fear in the markets trigger in us that really sometimes
has a lot more to do than just what stock is good or what I'm interested in. Evan, you made
a great point that I think can be illustrated best by the phenomena of price leads emotion. How many times have you
seen a stock that's ripping and people are just, oh, I wish I was in the stock. And if this thing
were to pull back 20%, I'd load the boat. Well, then you watch it pull back 20%, see how many of
those people are loading the boat at that point, right? Right. I always say you don't want it if
it pulls back 20%, it's a different stock. But, yeah. Yeah, well, it depends.
Like if it pulls back in 20% one day, I probably don't want it.
But if it does it nice and easy over, you know, four weeks while the market's correcting, then maybe I do it.
And these are the little nuances that, you know, anyone can put a chart up and say, oh, this, you know, Apple looks great.
But it's how do you get in?
How do you actually pull the trigger?
When do you get out?
How long do you get in? How do you actually pull the trigger? When do you get out? How long do you stay in?
This is the difference between being a Twitter guru and actually making money in the market.
It's part of these people who just want to catch the falling knife because they think that's the value.
Like Oracle, everybody's been saying, should I be buying Oracle?
Should I be buying Oracle?
And this has been going on since it first started to come in.
This is when it first started to come in right this is when you know first started to sell and i'm like you know problems generally present themselves
right over time you know this thing went from 345 we came all the way down to one what 135 area
and maybe it's trying to bottom here but to me it's struggling to hold the eight day it can't
get above the 21 day to me there's really no real reason to be sitting in this thing
and to buy it yet i mean i don't know about you scott i'll differ from you a little bit i think
it's acting better i think it's almost a safer buy now than it was you know into that capitulation
move on on february 5th you know you have that 135 low and then it just made a higher low at like
138 today it'll add a little bit the rest of it. Microsoft was definitely bouncier
and ServiceNow is better.
But to me, this almost looks like,
you know, you're not trying to catch a fallen eye
if it's basing and you have levels to use now as an out.
Like if you're super...
And you've got earnings next week.
You have earnings next week?
Yeah.
Okay.
When next week?
I think on the 26th. I'm sorry, the night. Sorry, the night. All right week? I think on the 26th.
I'm sorry, the night.
Sorry, the night.
All right.
I'm actually in Oracle.
I bought it this morning when it was down $2, and now it's up $3.50,
and I'm just in a third as a trailer because I want to kind of stay with it.
If this market acts the way it acted today, I feel like it has some more room.
I don't love how much Microsoft just pulled in this. I, I probably the way the market's been,
I should just probably get out of it and say, Hey, that was a great trade and not care if it's
up $2 tomorrow, if the futures are up or whatever. But I feel like it, it, it proved to me that I
could stay with this thing for a little bit longer, but then if it gets predatory, I'm out.
Like I did that with Apple. I'm sure you were in Apple a week ago. I bought Apple at 260.50 and I traded it all the way up to 273 and I used my tier system. I got smaller and I'm like, and I said at 271 or 269, I'm out. And that was on Friday before, I figured, hey, maybe you can go right to green,
and I traded it for us a level.
But now I'm trying to think, okay, I caught a day trade in it.
Do I need to sit in a third?
Because if you're down big tomorrow, sitting in a third
and four or five things you had good day trades with could hurt
versus just being fresh.
And they have their event tomorrow.
They have their event tomorrow?
Yeah.
Good.
See, I wish you were on my team.
You did great research. That's what what my opportunity is supposed to do hey red dog you're an
app and they've an event or hey you're an Oracle you know earnings the next
week you know so Apple's a little more complicated than that they're doing like
mini release thing every single day for the next today tomorrow and the next day
they released a new iPhone today, iPhone 17 and E,
which is their intro into the smartphone.
It's $600, so it's cheaper than the rest of the ones.
They also released a new iPad Air.
I think based on what I'm seeing...
Tomorrow is their presentation event.
Oh, they're doing a presentation, actually? I didn't think they were.
Yeah, not from their thing. It'll be spread out everywhere.
It's going to be some kind of quick demo they're doing.
It's unclear what it is. I don't expect to say anything big.
This is why we're here in spaces,
because between you, Mike, and you, Evan,
you can bring us up to speed on all this stuff.
Sometimes I don't want to know.
If anyone was looking for an iPhone.
Sometimes I get out and I'm too careful and it's acting well,
and they're like, oh, shit, it's acting so well,
but it has this thing tomorrow.
And I get out because it has this thing,
and then I'm like, oh, that's why I was acting well,
because it has this thing.
So complicated, right? The thing. get out because it has this thing and then I'm like oh that's why I was acting well because it has this thing so complicated right the thing I think Apple right now is in a weird spot right
now because it's it's been the anti AI trade and I'm excited to hear more about the the Mac minis
and the open cloth stuff I don't think it's gonna be enough to actually change the business but
sometimes sentiment is so low on Apple being included in AI, sometimes
perception is all you need to change to change the multiples. Obviously, that doesn't take the
company long term and stuff, but it changes stuff short term. You also didn't want a leg sweep.
You started getting leg sweep in these names that are spending on data centers, spending on this and
spending on that, and you kind of know that at least, at least you're not going to get hit with the, with news on Apple about a big data center spend
or an energy spend.
You might get a Nikkei Times article
about how slow the iPhone is,
but, you know, at least in like two weeks ago,
that was like, that was the pothole.
So I feel like money went here saying,
oh, at least that pothole won't happen.
That, you know, there's going to be an article
about how this is going to,
AI is going to get rid of Apple's business
the way it's doing for software or enterprise or the banks, you know what I'm saying? So it turned into a little bit
more like, hey, we can't get bad news about that here for now. So let's at least rule that out for
a little bit. Well, I think the one thing we're going to learn here this week and the next week
or so is the markets had a lot of little things bothering it, from the AI trade has been blowing up. You've had the inflation, like the PPI, was a little hotter,
came in actually a lot hotter than expected on Friday.
But my opinion today, I said, there's three things that can happen here
coming today to my group.
We talked about it.
I said, one is we can dump.
And I think a lot of us would love that just to get a range break
out of this monotonous chop and maybe reset the market
and get buyers to come back in. I said, my thing that's most likely going to happen today is we're
going to bounce off the lows and we're going to take back and go back into the chop range.
And I said, you know, the other thing that could happen is we could take off with the races and
the market could say, well, we're no longer worried about this. We're not worried about
anything. We're going to take off. I think we're just back into the chop range right now.
And I could be very wrong you know
and i will adjust accordingly but i'm not holding any positions overnight but you know just feels
like yep let's just we don't want to break the market could have broken today brought it right
back up we don't want to break out yeah they definitely could have today that's why that's why
i sold half my puts on the open and made good money and then once we got to like 682 at the
677s i'm just going to push on those because if it wasn't going to break
and do a sloppy sell and stop people out in that first half an hour,
I'm like, I can't sit in these 677 puts for tomorrow.
And now it looks like they're going to be a zero.
But now we're sitting at 686.
It's like it doesn't feel like how could they break this range
in the next few days.
I'm feeling like I don't have to have it on now now and that's really how you have to have it on like unless
which scoff a bit happens unless there's like a you know a sleeper cell here you know from iran
and this and that like kind of like not what happened in austin but and they and they really
have like a dirty bomb or something i don't know what's going to break this i'm just you know i'm
just thinking about what could happen you know with with this going on that can get to us here.
I mean, Iran could hit a carrier somehow, some way, right?
That would be an escalation type of thing.
But to your point, Scott, I mean, I think this seems to be that the market's going to settle in.
This is going to be the norm for the foreseeable future.
I hate to get too focused on geopolitical stuff because, again, it doesn't necessarily help
us make money. But this is something we've been talking about for a while in spaces.
A year and a half ago, when we first engaged, we bombed Iran. The futures dropped overnight,
like 500 points. And then they just spent the rest of the night grinding back up.
Then when we did the nuclear strike six months ago, whatever, had a similar drop,
but not as much. And it recovered faster. And I think the market has learned, right?
Everyone, look, I grew up, I was born in 1967, right?
I grew up thinking that Iran was this massive, you know, dragon in the Middle East.
And if we prodded it too much, they were going to unleash hell.
And I think what we found in the last couple of years is they're somewhat of a paper tiger.
And I think what we found in the last couple of years is they're somewhat of a paper tiger.
And so I think the market is getting more, I won't say relaxed, but they're like, you know, they don't think that there's any other shoe going to drop because you would think they would have dropped it by now.
And so I think the market's just more comfortable with this, whereas a year and a half ago, it was very jittery about going after Iran.
By the way, IWM looks amazing.
Like IWM looks amazing.
IWM has tested the 50 EMA so many times and bounced off.
To me, it looks the strongest out of the four major indexes I follow.
And that can't be a bad thing to have small caps looking better.
No, it's in the same range since January 15th, and it just consolidated a huge move from, you know, yeah, from pre-decent.
Yeah, no, IWM looks good.
I agree.
And that 258 held again pre-market or after the open, whatever it was.
There's not, yeah, like every third day we go from neutral to bullish to neutral to bearish,
neutral to bullish, neutral to bearish.
Like right now the spies in the queue seem like they're back to neutral where they're not going to be a headwind.
You have to go back to picking the stocks that are in play that are doing better.
So, yeah.
And like you said, we're going to be back in the chop.
We've been in this chop for almost, I don't know, since October-ish.
Five months-ish, four, five, yeah.
It just seems to go on forever.
I'm kind of used to it now, so that's why I'm not going to try not to waste money on spy puts, or I'm not going to try and play the breakout in the sector either.
I'm kind of used to it now.
I'm just going to trade and use the setups that are in front of us like they were today.
Today was a great setup across the board everywhere if you weren't caught to sell the war trade a little bit because it was a little bit too high too hot this morning like you were doing last night with your oil and this and that and to you know buy a
little bit if things got reclaimed and then you know and then watch for relative strength which
which was a which was software early and the group actually played together microsoft was so strong
it took it took an extra 20 minutes after everything else went green for oracle to go green
and at least that made sense.
If you trade things with a group,
you know,
and I like to trade a group where the other tell for us, I was Palantir was up big this morning.
Pretty market.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
That was,
that was,
that was,
there was a second.
Lockheed Martin was up like 10% last night.
There was a second.
Lockheed Martin was up like more than 10% last night.
It didn't,
wasn't long,
but yeah.
And there's a couple other pieces that are falling into place.
Like IGV looks like it's potentially found a bottom, at least short term.
That's good.
Also, if you look at Bitcoin, it looks like possibly it's found a short term bottom.
But I think the most important thing, the most important thing is XLF.
So XLF to me looks like it has a big
reversal off that open. It is technically negative by a few pennies, but it's reversed at a point
that makes sense. It's fairly close to possibly a double bottom. I learned growing up that you
can't really have a market break into new highs and sustain it when financials are getting beat down.
And that's what we've seen over the past couple of months.
Now, if XLF can get back in gear and break this intermediate term trend line, that's what I think would get us back finally into all-time highs with at least SPX.
get us back finally into all-time highs with at least spx so i'm watching xlf uh see you can do
some more work and see if igv and bitcoin have found a bottom i think those are three key things
to watch you know just on on that i will say that it was finally finally good that bitcoin actually
did by some rules right because you think about it it really has been just uh like almost like
the s p 500 or the nasdaq where you know and when the NASDAQ futures are up, Bitcoin was up a little bit, but lag.
When the NASDAQ futures were down, it was down more than the NASDAQ futures or the S&P.
So really, this weekend when it went down and came back hard on Saturday, on Sunday it was up.
And then this morning when we were down 45 handles and Bitcoin was only down five cents,
it actually showed every person who knows relative strength that, hey, maybe, you know,
Bitcoin is going to have a good day and changed.
And then lo and behold, Bitcoin, you know, is up 5.5 percent first time.
So now the question is, will this lead to better action?
But at least it's got the benefit of the doubt that for the first time it showed a little
power, showed a little relative strength and did what some people who want to be long Bitcoin wanted to do.
So now this goes from the D list to hopefully maybe the B plus list.
And if it continues, it stays up there.
That's why I bought Robinhood this morning when it was down to.
I didn't trade coin or any of those.
What did coins you'd say?
Did coin act well?
Yeah, coin active so so that that you know coin and and robin hood
and some of those kind of look like what the igv looks like now and that that's had a little bit
more continuation so you know i would think bitcoin itself proved that like you said i think
i think the low is in in bitcoin here too and and now you could look at that group a little bit
closer and i've been looking i've been looking a lot less at that group.
So if you want to rotate groups, this group should be, you would think would be better the same way, you know, IGV should be a bit better.
You just have to make sure you're picking and choosing your spots well and not, you know, chasing things or adding when things look good because that's still not the easiest thing to do.
For the record, another thing to watch out for, Robinhood has just been trading off of
crypto recently, but they do have an event this week on the 4th after the close at 7
something PM.
Okay, that's cool.
Listen, I usually like events.
It's called Take Flight.
I don't know what it is.
I think there's some stuff.
It might be family accounts or something along those lines, but Take Flight. It's actually at TWA at the old hotel at JFK.
Nice. That's cool. I listen from, from 150 down to 78 and change and acting a little well,
I'll, I'll try and give it a little bit of room. I remember we had it the last time from 72. I
think it went up and then I got stopped out of my room. I keep feeling like I keep getting stopped out of my last third at a good price.
And then it goes down further, but it doesn't break what the active sequence would have been.
So you get a better price.
The worst is when you get stopped out of the last third and then you have to pay higher than where you got stopped out.
That's never fun.
But anyway, so little things that make me happy.
And no, we're coming here towards the time where you normally gotta jump off go over to your crew yeah i'm gonna stay with us a little bit longer
but i want to make sure you had that chance to come in here any extra thoughts that you had in
and you want to make sure you leave the people with obviously never kicking you off but uh i
wish you had that chance i appreciate that because i have to actually hustle because my son has a
second game of states tonight.
And it's a big night in my son's life.
The gym will be packed.
Anyway, for those of you who have kids, start them early.
They'll thank you later.
So I would just say that, yeah, I think like what Mike said,
we're back in the middle of the range.
Just because we're back at 686 doesn't mean we're going to go back to 695 to 698. And just because we're back at 686 doesn't mean we're going to go back to 695 to 698 and just
because we're back at 686 doesn't mean we're fully out of the woods because there could be something
that we're not thinking of you know like with with the overall um geopolitical tensions i i do say
you don't need to stick in trades you know for longer than just to like have a swing trade on
if you like if you like your day trade and you like the move that it had, just take it.
You know, you definitely could use a tier system, though, with a third, you know, just in case there's more.
I do think I would give it a 60, 70 percent that the IGV put its low in.
Doesn't mean you could buy it this second, you know, but look for clues like today where IGV was down small.
Microsoft was down small.
Now showed some power.
So you're able to buy Oracle this or that.
Same way IBIT was acting better.
And, you know, Robinhood and coin move with it.
If you know the relationship of things, have an idea.
And then when the market's open in the first half an hour, chances are when the market confirms your idea, you just push the buttons and execute.
Don't sit there like a deer in headlights because something didn't work a few weeks ago. You know, do it at the time the market confirms your idea you just push the buttons and and execute don't sit there
like a deer in headlights because something didn't work a few weeks ago you know do it at the time
the market's ready for it and as far as your longer term accounts like you know i was a trader
for a cause this weekend and it's funny is everyone does everything different 20 of the people at that
actually no 80 of the people they short small caps they've made millions shorting you know
worthless small caps that get a pump and they know which is what.
And it's a totally different game.
There's so many games out there.
I'm like, I've never done that before.
Maybe I've done it once or twice where I short a name that went from four to 80 that goes back to 10.
You know, Scott, I've wondered my entire life when I see these companies with over 100 short interest and 50 60 who is shorting this
stuff i've always wondered that but i guess let's find out the answer yeah no listen you have to
have the wherewithal because sometimes you know it could put you out of business before it fails
like some of those things that went from four to forty to eighty went to 220 before they went back
to a dollar you know i know this stock i was talking about on Twitter, just a real memory lane, this company, Eftel,
that my friends, when it was like 30,
like this is 50 cents.
And I lost over 100 grand shorting it
because I had too much when I was at 45
and I went to 60 before I went to 50 cents.
But so there's an art to everything.
You know, there is an art to everything,
but these guys have made a ton of money
because, you know, they're not the pumping dumb guys.
They're the ones who see it and smell it out and sniff it out and start shorting them, play at a good time and make a lot of money when they go back to wherever they started.
And most of them do. But I thought that was interesting because that's not my game.
And there was 300 people in there doing something totally different than I did.
And they all knew who I was. I didn't know who I am. I like to buy Tesla and Apple and NVIDIA and Microsoft and Oracle and but anyway um so I'm having a lot a little diarrhea
of the mouth but I will say is when all these kind of um situations like over the weekend happen
especially if you're long-term don't don't listen to the five different news agencies you know just
stick to your plan you know if you have a 401k every month just put your money in every single
month it's going to make you money over time the The same thing with a 529, the same thing with a 403b. And just like I said, if you trade actively for a living, it's March 2nd. It's a new month. Okay, it's new flows. There could be new action. So what worked in January and February may not work in March, you know, but who knows, maybe it does. You don't need to reinvent wheel, but you have to keep your eyes and ears open every
single month, every few weeks, because, you know, money's going from somewhere to somewhere.
Just because you lost money on the video, just say by buying the gap open, because everyone
said it was a great report and great, you know, guidance and lost money doesn't mean
you couldn't try it today when it was the first one green and then held that 179 and
180 area.
So if you were wrong once, you once, it wasn't the stock's fault
and the stock had no idea that you were wrong. You just were wrong. And then next time, maybe
you'll approach it better. And all that takes is a clear mind and a routine and a process so you
could think straight. Having an edge is great, but you have to think straight, be in the moment
so you could execute on your edge. Otherwise, it'll be cloudy and you could be just missing out on it. And that is that.
Thank you, Mr. Scott Redler.
If you guys are not following Scott, you are missing out. Along with all the other amazing speakers
up here, it's been a fantastic conversation so far. But Scott is awesome. Veteran
of the industry, hosting a free show every single morning, 6.30 a.m. Eastern.
You are up at then at
that point it's giving some good mindset giving some good thoughts it's in the sauna helping you
guys get your day started and then of course also has that alpha team if you guys want more
scott i appreciate you for joining in
awesome awesome awesome we did take us until 4 5050 p.m. Eastern. We were about 10 minutes until the market closed.
There are a couple earnings after the close today.
ASCS, DBAI, Urchra Aviation, Credo, MongoDB, Plug Power Riot.
All right, it's a FinTwit favorite type of day.
Maybe I stopped short of mean names,
but there are some names that definitely enjoy getting talked about on Twitter that are reporting.
I am on the right day.
I do want to hear Sam's thoughts on these ones, but Stock Talk, do I have you?
Mr. Stock Talk.
Yes, yes.
What's going on?
Hey, how's New Mexico?
Yeah, I know, right?
Brian DMs me and goes, you're moving to New Mexico?
Why?
And I was like, what are you talking about?
That is exactly what I was hoping for on that.
So thank you for making my day.
I really thought it failed.
I thought it failed.
Unfortunately, I'm not Oppenheimer.
I'm not in New Mexico yet, but I'm still in Dallas.
Still in Dallas.
All right, I'm going to give you a five-minute timer here
because I want to talk a little bit about some of these earnings we have coming up,
and then we'll circle back in after.
A lot's happening right now in the world.
Obviously, there's conflicts going on.
I don't know if you have any thoughts on this from maybe the market perspective.
I know we love talking, enjoy talking geopolitics,
but obviously it's a very different thing in the market so i just general
your thoughts on whatever you want to talk what happened this weekend yeah um i mean i i felt like
it was pretty well forecasted i mean we had true buildups in the region for for several weeks um
i'm kind of a geopolit nerd a little bit, if you will. I mean, I've enjoyed
following geopolitics for many years. I'm not an expert by any means, but I do try to make
market correlations to what I am an expert in, which is stock picking, as often as I can when
it comes to geopolitics. Today, you saw some relative strength in aerospace and defense
stocks from that, which I think is to be expected. This, you saw some relative strength in aerospace and defense stocks from that,
which I think is to be expected.
This morning, I think they were a little bit stronger than they were in the back half of the day.
A lot of that's due to the AVAV SCAR program announcement that was made intraday.
For those that don't know, Aerovironment, a note came out midday from raymond james on on the scar
program um and they think it has the potential to cut their backlog in half um from roughly 2.8
billion to between one to 1.4 billion that was a pretty damning note i think avav this morning was
up 10 and is now down 20 on the day day. So that's like a 30 point.
What did you say?
They were up 20%.
It's crazy.
Oh, okay.
So yeah, up 20 and now down 20.
So 35, 40 point reversal on that name intraday.
But that, I think, hurt sentiment in the back half of the day in some of the defense stocks.
some of the defense stocks but still the vast majority at least on my watch list are closing
But still the vast majority, at least on my watch list, are closing green.
green um i obviously own credo's one-stop systems oss which isn't really a direct defense play but
it's a defense compute play um irdm i picked up calls uh on friday that stocks up three percent
today um which is nice.
So good day for the portfolio overall.
Even the positions that were red today were barely red.
Nothing's down by more than 1%.
So 13 positions green.
The other five or six are basically flat, down less than 1%.
So good day for the portfolio overall.
As far as the Iran war goes,
look, I don't think you can play war catalytically.
A lot of people, they wait for these conflicts to happen
and then they're like,
what stock should I buy to benefit from the conflict?
That's a hard game to play.
It's much easier to be positioned
for the possibility of conflict.
And then, you know, if it happens,
you benefit from it.
But trying to,
I don't even want to call it chasing,
because, you know, there's some names today
that I think are relevant to the conflict
that are only up a couple of percent.
But trying to position yourself post-conflict
is difficult because you don't know
how it's going to develop.
No one has a crystal ball, right?
We don't know how this conflict is going to spread regionally, what other weapons might be involved.
I mean, if you look at the weapon systems that were involved in the first few strikes,
and the cool thing about the Pentagon is that they're pretty transparent about that.
They'll tell you which weapon systems were used,
and then you can take your favorite LLM and go to your favorite LLM
and find out who owns or deploys
or builds those weapon systems.
You don't need to be a genius to figure that out.
You know, you can pull up your LLM,
type in Pentagon releases for Operation Epic Fury,
look at all the weapon systems,
and you'll find names. There are a
lot of names out there that were directly involved in these attacks. Those names are getting bid up
today. And I would not be surprised if they continue to get bid up. You can find decent
entry points on there, maybe on a pullback into those 9 and 21 EMAs on some of them. That's,
I think, a decent tactical trade to make. But it is dangerous the
day after a conflict like this to just be running around like a chicken with your head cut off,
trying to buy anything that you think might be impacted. That I don't think is a winning strategy.
So, you know, I own Huntington Ingalls, HII. That's my biggest defense position. I own Kratos.
I own IRDM, OSS. These are all defense plays, right?
Indirectly or directly.
So I have enough exposure to that industry.
There are a couple of other names that I want to buy.
There's one that I was looking at that I wanted to get calls on today,
but it gapped up.
So out of discipline, I'm not going to do that.
You know, that's just, I operate on principle.
Most of the times when I make undisciplined decisions in the market, the market punishes me for it.
I think once you have like over a decade of experience in the market, you start to like realize these things.
You know, you've seen everything before and, you know, you know where the market punishes you and where it rewards you.
And when I chase or when I'm not disciplined with my entries the market tends to punish me and so i try to stick to that rule of you know
if a stock that i want to be in gaps up on me on a monday or or on a friday or whatever i just wait
and a lot of times the entry presents itself i mean there have been a lot of names this year that
you know i wanted to buy at x price and they went up and then I forwent buying them.
And the next market pullback, I pick them up.
You know, there are always pullbacks in every calendar year, every fiscal year where stocks get sold indiscriminately.
And those are your opportunities to get names that you would have otherwise chased,
right, to get them at better entry points. And that's a really, really hard lesson for people
to learn because FOMO is very pervasive. I mean, even for experienced traders, they get FOMO,
right? So not chasing 5%, 6%, 7% gap ups and just waiting for stocks to come to you, I think,
is an important thing to be doing in an environment like this.
And on the catalyst side, when it comes to the Iran war,
you don't know how it's going to develop.
You don't know how the conflict's going to spread,
what other weapon systems might be deployed.
And so I really think you have to read and react more than predict
with catalysts like that.
It's not like a news PR catalyst where if you see a news PR and it's a really big deal, it's a company changing news.
You can trade that. You can trade that intraday or intraweek.
But with a war, it's a little bit different. And we saw this with the Ukraine and Russia war,
right? Like there were trades to be made, but the development of the conflict is what revealed
those trades. On day one, they weren't obvious. Like a lot of the conflict is what revealed those trades.
On day one, they weren't obvious.
Like a lot of the agriculture trades in the Russia-Ukraine war,
it took a few weeks for bases to build out on those names
and for the real breakouts to happen.
But those were amazing trades, you know,
in the two or three months following the outset of that war.
And then there's other conflicts, like the conflict in Israel and Gaza,
where there are not many plays to be made because that region of the world does not have a tremendous
amount of commodity importance, right? There were Israeli defense stocks that were excellent,
excellent plays. But again, that's an entirely different category, right? You go from the
commodity-based trades in the Russia-Ukraine war to some domestic Israeli defense stocks in the Israel-Gaza conflict.
And now you have the Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict, which is, again, an entirely different makeup.
Right now you have a potential risk to the energy complex.
You have a potential risk to oil prices. And that's where you saw some money go last week.
And then today you saw a big day
for xle right xle up two percent today and a lot of oil and gas stocks having terrific days today
you know some double digit gainers on my oil and gas watch list so every conflict has unique um
choke points and if you're not already positioned for them, you know, it's really,
really difficult to buy and hold those, especially if they're already gapping up at the, at the
outset of the conflict. So, um, I think if you're not already positioned in aerospace and defense
names, which I frankly think you have no reason to not be, there've been so many catalysts for
that space for the last two years.
But if you're not, I would treat that as a trade you weren't interested in
and that you don't need to now get exposure
just because there's another war going on in the Middle East.
So pay attention to the weapon systems that are deployed.
If you can find a specific weapon system that's deployed
and a stock that's based out, buy it.
If you can't
shrug your shoulders and wait for a pullback and you know understand the difference between
commodity driven conflicts versus um you know these smaller conflicts where more precision
strikes are being used more next-gen weapons are being used and that's where you're where you're going to find your
your places to be but um yeah i shared all the defense names i currently own like i said there's
another one that i want to pick up we'll see if i get a chance to pick that up this week or not
not then so be it if i do then great i'll be throwing that into the into the discord but
um yeah that's my thinking right now. But great day for the portfolio overall. I think Brian mentioned this earlier.
IGV looks like it's trying to put in a bottom.
IWM looks terrific on all time frames.
The Qs aren't quite there yet, but they are putting up a fight to hold in this general area.
I'd like to see a little bit more traction in the Qs.
Push us back above that 6.10, 6.12 area.
That would, I think, look a little bit better and then you have broader market stability and i think you can continue to
dance with the music um financials looked decent um going into the end of last week kre looked good
today but we still saw some weakness in xlf i would like to see the weakness in XLF resolved. To me, if you're going to pick any individual market index as an indicator of the economy, I think it is XLF.
And so you want to see that stabilize as well.
That'll, I think, alleviate concerns about the real economy.
It was good to see Bitcoin attempting to put in a bottom this morning and last night.
Good to see Bitcoin attempting to put in a bottom this morning and last night.
I'm not quite convinced Bitcoin is as technically sound down here as IGV is,
but it is trying to put in a bottom here.
And, you know, we'll wait and see how that pans out during the rest of the week.
But for the most part, market looks fine here.
You know, I know there's been a lot of flashes in the pan of concern over the last few weeks about individual stock action.
But I think the market looks fine here so far.
And I think the reaction to the war, I think, feels like a clearing event.
I'm not going to say for certain it is, but it feels like a clearing event, especially with all the volatility we've had and the fact that the markets didn't dump today.
You know, I mean, if you had the Qs down 2% today, then, you know, maybe I wouldn't be saying that.
But markets really didn't budge.
You had a little bit of a dip in futures.
The recovery was pretty swift.
Then you had Bitcoin ripping this morning.
And then, you know, most of the indexes
found their way to float to green. I mean, the Qs found their way to close green. SPY did, IWM did,
XLI did, Gold, IGV, KRE, you know, pretty broad green close today for most of the indexes.
Dow Jones, L, underperformer. Sorry, I just had to slip it in there.
Yep. But I was just about to mention that Dow Jones and the industrials and healthcare and consumer discretionary, XLP, Staples, XHB, those were all red today. Right. And in the weakness we've seen in momentum, and, you know, the fast trade, if you will, the weakness we've seen in the fast trade over the last month and a half or so, where have we seen the relative strength?
We've seen it in those areas, staples, health care, consumer discretionary housing, and those were weak today.
So that's an incrementally good sign.
Again, you never want to get ahead of yourself.
I always try to put caveats on my commentary because I don't want people to think I'm making crystal ball predictions here. But today's action was, I think, about as good as it gets for a war starting over the weekend.
It felt like exhaustive action to the downside in futures overnight. And then you saw quite a
relief bounce today as soon as the market opened, right? Pre-market was looking a little shaky,
especially for the Qs,
especially early pre-market for the Qs.
I think there was a point where they were down
a couple of percent.
And then you flipped a green intranet.
That's pretty good to pull that off.
Now, again, technical structure
is not quite there yet on the NASDAQ.
You know, you're still tucked under the 50 day
and have had relentless rejections there for the past few weeks that's the structure is not
repaired on the nasdaq so that need to be abundantly clear about that but the rest of
the market looks pretty good um iwm looks pretty good spy looks pretty good and so i think you can
hang your hat on that for now.
You know, even SPY wasn't able to get clearance about the 50 day yet. So close, but no cigar.
You want to see structure rebuild on the two major indexes, which is the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ control the vast majority of liquidity in the market. And when
they are working, the market
tends to work. And so you want to see structure repair there. That'll really give you an all
clear signal. But for now, individual stocks are working well. I think if you're a good stock
picker, you'll do well in this environment. I think bad stock pickers are doing badly,
really as simply as I would put it. Chasers are doing badly in this environment. People
were chasing 10, 12% gap ups.
They're getting killed in this environment.
And lazy stock pickers are doing badly in this environment.
But I think if you're proactive about your stock picking,
you're looking at what's happening,
you're looking at the thematic relevance,
I think you're probably doing pretty good in this environment.
I could be doing better.
There have been some mistakes I made this year, certainly.
There have been some sloppy entries I've had.
But I'm still up, whatever, as of today's close, 56, actually a little over 57% at the close on the year.
So, you know, it's only been two months.
I'm pretty satisfied with that performance so far.
Like I said, I could be doing a little bit better.
I probably could be at 70% or 75% if I hadn't made a couple of mistakes that I made.
But that's okay. I mean, I can't trade
perfectly. So I'm fine with, you know, making a couple of mistakes here and there. So yeah,
I'm overall very satisfied with individual stock action, very satisfied with the broader market.
I think my only red flags, like I mentioned, are the lack of structural clarity on spy in the queues which could be
resolved in a single candle right i mean you get a one and a half percent gap up this week on spy
in the queues and you know you're back above all the moving averages and it's like nothing ever
happened so we'll see we'll see how this week closes but um there are a couple stocks on my
radar that i want to buy we'll see if i end up opening any of how this week closes. But there are a couple stocks on my radar that I want to buy.
We'll see if I end up opening any of them this week.
MongoDB down 17%. This thing was just $450 not so long ago.
It did just report earnings.
I haven't seen ASTS's numbers out as well, but MongoDB, that is fair enough.
Did we read the numbers?
No, read them out.
Go for it.
I got a couple of them.
Give me MongoDB right now.
MongoDB, 695.07 million versus 669.37 million.
EPS, 1.65 versus 1.47 expected.
Nothing crazy there, so it must be guidance or some kind of announcement
yeah i saw atlas grew 29 that's pretty strong considering their acceleration but yeah it
most likely had to be guidance
i still have not gotten the chance to see that guidance yet um i haven't even seen another
real numbers out yet i did see sofi ceo anthony noto bought one million dollars worth of stock
mongo db now down to 20 percent read me off some of the other numbers uh sniper i still haven't
seen asts yeah still waiting on asts as well. Riot platforms, 152.81 million revenue versus 158.05 million revenue.
They did not provide EPS, and the expected EPS was minus 29 cents.
Haven't seen any major announcements there, but might be a similar one towards a cipher mining one or cipher platforms.
Archer Aviation was expecting no revenue,
but they came up with 300,000 revenue somehow.
Minus 0.26 EPS expected to be minus 0.24.
That is the earnings that we've seen thus far.
Oh, Credo reported also 407.01 million
versus 391.59 million expected.
EPS 1.07 versus 0.94 expected.
Okay.
Yeah, MongoDB still down 20.
I do see the first numbers here,
but there's got to be something in guidance.
Management guidance,
they expect between 665 to 670 million.
So next quarter,
they expect revenue to be down
from what it was this current quarter.
I'm assuming that's not what the market wanted.
Yeah.
Well, they do have a seasonal effect
with their earnings.
With their revenue.
It's seasonally...
Every quarter is different.
i think this is one of their weaker quarters coming up
I think this is one of their weaker quarters coming up.
your earnings reactions to the market have just been pretty bad this quarter
i mean not i mean i just think highly volatile really not even necessarily bad i mean there
have been a lot of names up 20 too but very very volatile earnings season for sure i mean
going into earnings reports in this in this climate without a cushion is,
I mean, you got to have balls of steel to do that.
And that's part of the reason why I've been hesitant.
There's a lot of stocks that I want to buy, like a lot.
There's like 12 names on my buy list.
I've been hesitant, though, this earnings season to buy stuff going into reports
because of the volatility, you know, I, I don't want to take a, you know, massive position and
be dumped on 14, 15, 16%.
Like just, that's not how I operate.
So if I don't have an ability to build a cushion going into an earnings report, I'm
just not going to buy it.
And, and sometimes I miss stocks because of that.
I mean, you know, it's funny.
AAOI was a name that I was looking at buying
the beginning of the year,
and it just never got my entry.
And, you know, it gapped up 50% on earnings,
up another 20% today.
Like, I just missed that one.
And that's part of the game.
Like, sometimes you're going to find stocks you like,
and you're going to try to be disciplined,
and you're going to end up missing them.
And that's part of the game.
The idea of knowing that there's always another stock is hugely important.
Otherwise, you're just going to get super preoccupied and you're going to end up either chasing or trying to find a technically unsupported entry and you're going to get buried alive.
Finding based out stocks and buying them is the simplest, most way to make money in markets it's what i've been
doing for over a decade it just works every year finding like opportunities that are consolidating
and at the right prices at the right place technically at the right place fundamentally
at the right place thematically and aren't being chased by the broader public or being posted on
Twitter 500 times, those are where you make consistent money and you have much less stress.
So that's my MO. That's where I like to operate. I'm not going to be in every high-flying name as
a consequence of that, but I have names that end up working really well. I mean,
VIAVI was up another 19% today, right? Those calls that I've been sitting on with conviction, I haven't sold any of them, are up 1,400, almost 1,500% now.
And they don't expire until March 20th, and I will not be selling them prior to March 20th.
I'll be exercising half or more of them on that date. Right now, that stock for me is like almost 13% weighting.
It was over an 11% weighting as of Friday's close. As of today's 20% move higher, it's almost a 13%
weighting. When I exercise those calls on March 20th, it'll likely be a 16 plus percent weighting
in the portfolio. It'll be the biggest position by percentage weight. It'll overtake ENS.
portfolio, be the biggest position by percentage weight, it'll overtake ENS. So yeah, having
conviction in a handful of names can make you more money than chasing 20 names, much more,
because your sizing is going to be higher, you're not going to sell into strength, you're going to
hold it through these parabolic moves if you have conviction. And that's where the real money is
made. And so that's why it real money is made, you know?
And so that's why it doesn't really bother me to miss stocks that I wanted to buy, um,
that, that get away from me.
So, you know, we'll see out of these 12 names that I have on this list, maybe I'll end up
buying three or four of them.
Maybe I'll end up buying five or six of them.
Maybe I'll end up buying six or seven of them.
I mean, I don't know.
Uh, it just depends on where the stocks are sitting when i'm ready to buy and um i'm i tend
to be very patient for that but that that's a skill that took me a long time to develop like
i don't want to pretend that i don't still get fomo i do i get fomo all the time you know i see
a stock that i wanted to be in that's ripping in front of me and I'm like scrambling to get an entry you know
and that happens all the time um but you'll be rewarded for discipline in markets you know uh
that's not something that's ever going to serve you wrong you might miss some stocks but um you
will be rewarded for being disciplined in markets because most people are not disciplined in markets.
Most people buy stocks at any price.
Most people say it's a good company
and they just buy at any price.
They don't care about valuation.
They don't care about where it is technically.
That's a losing strategy.
And so, yeah, I'm fine with the way that I do things,
even if I do end up missing some stuff.
What's up, Sam?
I agree with you. I mean, I was fine with the way that I do things, even if I do end up missing some stuff. What's up, Sam? I agree with you.
I mean, I was actually talking about this on the Solid Report.
Well, financial.
Shout out Solid Report.
Anyways, no, I mean, it's actually pretty interesting because I've been, you know,
I've obviously been listening to the stuff you're saying.
Also, I've been seeing other people like outperform the market as well.
And it's mostly because they do go with that theory that, look, there's a lot of stocks
that go along in the stock market that aren't necessarily talked about a lot on Twitter.
Like, obviously, I'm bullish on Zeta, but I don't think people would be, I think people
might be surprised that it's like it's only a 6% position of mine and I don't plan to
increase it or anything.
I am a bullish company, but at the same time, I'm not necessarily going to go all in something.
And I do find it interesting how people will keep a position at a massive size and then watch it just get chopped in half in front of them to continue adding to it.
While I did kind of share that mentality, some time ago, I look back and I reflect on it because I do a little bit journaling as well. And it's never really turned out too good because then you're just at the
mercy of whenever the market gives you the premium for that position.
And until then, like, you don't really have a choice.
Like I can sit over here and I can tell you all the bullish things I have to
say about Zeta, but look, if software is trending down,
like it's not going to go anywhere. It's just going to go down.
And it's less to do with that company specifically
and more to do with the overall performance
of the entire sector, right?
Like Zeta was just 24 bucks like earlier this year.
And then now it's back down like 17 bucks
and I am flat in the position.
So I do, I am fortunate to, you know,
not chase the $24 range,
but people might've been doing that.
And that's when I saw the most activity about it on Twitter. And it was probably not a good time to buy in
the size. Cause then you just, you're already down like what, 30% on it. And you're hoping
it's going to come back and don't even get me started. Like people who are buying call options
on this thing. And I think I've, one thing that I've done a lot more lately is reduce the amount
of options exposure that I have in a lot
of the positions I have. And like you're saying, when you have that cost basis or lower cost basis
on a stock, you can stomach the pullbacks, especially if you've done your research and
you understand what's happening with this company. And one of the businesses I just got into today,
and I know Mystique was talking about it a lot as well. I was looking over it last weekend and I thought, okay, let me get a decent entry on this. So I got an AMPX,
small 2% position, only in shares, of course. And my theory with this is that you have a lot
of drone stocks that are running that are more involved in the drone hardware itself,
but this is more from a battery perspective um that's
used not only in drones but other machinery as well and it's more like kind of a pixel and
shovels play because i found a lot more alpha doing the pixel and shovels playing obviously
this isn't something that's like profusely talked about on twitter a lot maybe it was at some point
but not anymore which is good because the chart it looks a lot better than it did when it was like around 24 bucks. But at the same time, you know, it's just, um, I have my idea of when, when
I'll admit that I'm wrong in something like this, but I would like to size it up more.
Um, the only problem is that I'm a little hesitant in this environment. I mean, you're,
I was talking about earlier how it's like, it looks like software has bottoms. It does.
It looks like a software's bottom. We had a couple of follow through days, which is good to see. But if you zoom out in the
chart in the weekly chart for software, it just, our IGV, it just looks terrible. Like there's no
way around that. Like if you look at even service now on the weekly chart, like the chart looks so
bad. It's not really a chart that I'd want to buy because you don't know if we're going to rotate
back to what was working before. Like it can easily happen. Like just against like one or two days where everything flips around and you
have the underperformance of all the defenses that you were just discussing.
You get like a couple of days like this,
people get very excited and they've been buying on the way down.
So they're just like, Oh, this is the bottom. Now let me size up.
So then that way I'll break even a lot sooner than if it just recovers to the
price where I initially bought and And then they get smoked.
And then they get caught holding the bag because they size something too big.
I think that's probably the point that kills a lot of people in this market.
And I remember last February, a year ago, I kind of had that little thing that a lot of people do.
They average down.
They keep on buying and so on.
And then you think that it's at a bottom and it's not so you think like okay let me let me buy more whatever and it just keeps going down right and you that actually has been happening with software
for like the last couple of months like this didn't just start like a couple of weeks ago
software has been trending down since last october and it's been continuously trending down while
socks or semiconductors have just been continuously making new all-time highs. And the market was kind of telling you
for a long time, like, look, this is where it is right now. It's in defense, it's in
semiconductors, it's basically in exposure as far as building out the semiconductor supply chain,
but also the picks and shovels that are involved in those industries. Like those are the ones that
have been doing good for a while.
And just because you have a couple of days where it's not working, it doesn't mean that it's not going to work at all and everything completely reversed.
You just need to take time to let things roll out.
And then you'll finally still see whether it's actually going to happen when it gets
confirmed through the earnings or news or whatever contracts get spread out on that
thesis.
I got to be honest, it is good to see Palantir recover a bit from here.
But how many times have you been head faked on software for a long time?
And meanwhile, a lot of software stocks, even though they've had a major pullback,
they're still expensive stocks.
Like CrowdTrack is, yeah, it did recover like about 10% from its lows recently.
But it's still a super expensive stock trading 18 times forward price and sale earnings.
But then there are other stocks out there that are trade very cheaply.
Even after the decent move that it had, it still rates pretty cheap.
Like I'm not just talking about the memory stocks,
but even other stocks like on Semiconductor,
like that stock isn't exactly an expensive stock and it didn't make a nice move.
But at the same time, it doesn't have a demanding multiple,
doesn't have a demanding multiple, especially when they're going to be accelerated revenue
especially when they're going to be accelerated revenue to low double digits.
to low double digits. And it's these kind of moves that likely do continue as money starts
to flow more into it and hold for the longer term versus the volatility and gamma squeezes that
you'd see in a lot of high beta positions. And there was a company last week, which
I traded EOS Energy. I bought it like around the low single digits. And then I
sold it around 14 bucks. And it was like three, four months last year, including this year. I'm
just like, wow, I could have just held this. And I would have had like a $19 stock would have had
another two times on it would have been great. And then look what happened last week, right?
Completely bombed the earnings. And while maybe it might not last, might last,
whatever it is. But that was one of the first things that I told myself where I was like,
look, this is a great example of why I should not be chasing stuff, right? Like, so you made money
on it, then just walk away after that, right? And there was even a time before the earnings where
it was trading around like high single digits, like, okay, well, maybe I can get in here,
you know, whatever, then do my research. And I'm just like, you know, there's a
lot of other better stuff to get exposure to in terms of battery technology. And I already have
my battery technology exposure anyway. So why do I need to get into this? And then it drops 40%
after earnings. And this happens time and time again. And I think this is not the environment
to be looking at this pre-revenue high beta stocks and think to yourself like, hey, I think that this is probably not a good sector to be in right
now in size.
If you have like a long-term, if you have like a long-term perspective on the market,
maybe like 30, 40 years, and you don't want to put like 1% EOS, and then that's something
you want to do, you know, you could probably get like a 10 or 20 times if the story does
play out.
But there is tons of risk in that. And then you're also hoping that things reverse in terms
of fundamentals as well. So now it gets a little bit difficult. So I just think that that kind of
game is a lot more well played. And like you're saying, it does help you sleep better at night.
Like, I don't know, you're with certain stocks, you're literally at the mercy of whether the
market decides
to give it its premium or not.
And that's how software has been for a while,
since 2011, when software was chosen
to possibly be the Ford momentum
in terms of technology.
And it had for about 15 years, it had.
But like, what if software is no longer
in a game that massive premium
that it's had for almost two decades?
And what if this is just the norm now, right?
Because some of these stocks are still expensive, right?
Even though that they pulled back, they're still expensive stocks.
And if people are banking for those expensive premiums that had had before,
you might be waiting for a while, right?
So I think there's a lot more to gain outside of those sectors
versus just whatever you're seeing on your feet all the time.
And it's honestly turned out a lot better for me.
That's for sure.
What are you looking at?
Some of these earnings reports out here after hours.
What an insane quarter for ouster is one of mystics plays.
But they posted a 50 percent revenue beat. Stocks up 21% after hours.
I haven't looked at the details yet, but they posted,
I mean, it's a mid-cap name, 1.2 billion market cap,
but 1.62 million in revenue, expected 40 million,
75% EPS beat as well.
Posted a six cents loss, expected to post a 24-cent loss.
That's a hell of a quarter for them
i wonder what they're saying on the call but that's one i was looking at too
it's a marvelous reaction from them
50 percent i've never heard of that company i don't even know what they do either lidar company
military lighter mostly yeah but that's
a great report
I'm not in it but just
going through some of the earnings that are coming out here after
hours
see what else we have
obviously I have more
of a mid cap focus than
a lot of you guys but that is one of the
names I was looking at for today
what else do we have here March 3rd than a lot of you guys, but that is one of the names I was looking at for today.
What else do we have here?
March 3rd.
There are a couple of interesting ones coming up. You have a lot today.
Did ASDS come out already? I hadn't seen it when i last looked let's double check again
asts
i'm not seeing numbers does the stock is the stock moving like it's out
not necessarily not necessarily i don't think it's out maybe in five minutes
they're thinking like they're nvidia or something i don't think it's out. Maybe in five minutes.
They're thinking like they're NVIDIA or something.
I don't see it either.
They're supposed to report today, right?
Yeah, it was supposed to be a couple minutes ago.
Interesting.
Stock talk. One of the things that,
you know, for anyone who isn't maybe so up to date on our timeline, I know you
got your group going on there and prices are going up literally the second the space is
done, the price is going to double, uh, for anyone who hasn't checked that out before,
obviously it's this Lincoln stock talks bio.
We do these spaces every single day, Monday through Thursday, three to 5.
PM Eastern for the last three, four years or so.
Um, I know you guys are a lot of fans of him.
If you haven't tried out that Discord before,
now it could be a good time, but tell me more.
What's happening?
Yeah, we were supposed to raise price yesterday,
but I talked to Evan.
Evan said to do a favor to you guys to leave it till today.
So we did that.
But, yeah, they'll be going up tonight.
Look, I think there's a lot of stupid Discord groups out there.
There's a lot of boiler rooms.
For those that haven't been a part of our community before, it's very different.
I share the full portfolio, all the positions, all the weightings, live entries and exits.
We don't just share ideas and then, you know, celebrate the winners and ignore the losers like everyone else on the platform does.
you know, celebrate the winners and ignore the losers like everyone else on the platform does.
You know everything I own, when I own it, what the price I own it at is, what the weighting in
the portfolio is, when I'm going to buy it, when I'm going to sell it, when I'm going to trim it.
I share all of that. And I also share the performance. And for those of you that have
been following along, you know, we had 260% portfolio return in 24 in 24 505 last year in 25 and this year in the first two
months we're up 57 use about 10 to 12 options at any given time so 85 to 90 of the portfolio
is in common stock at all times so there's not a tremendous amount of of options exposure or anything it's not
an options only account um i think people have any any account size can benefit from it but yeah you
guys are welcome to check that out today the links in my bio um prices will be doubling tonight
i've tried to keep prices as low as possible for a long time, but the demand has been overwhelming and no one is canceling. So just to control the size of the group, we have to raise prices. So yeah, prices
will be doubling tonight. You guys are more than welcome to check it out. You can read the reviews.
It's all third-party platform reviews on WAP. Anyone who's a member can leave a review. We have
like 99% five-star reviews. Our retention rate is the highest in
any retail trading community. Easily, we have a 4% churn rate. People just don't cancel for a
reason. People are making money and we're outperforming the market consistently with
full transparency, no bullshit, no, oh, I'm celebrating this because I told you about it
six months ago. No, I tell you what I own, when I own it, when I sell it, what the waiting is.
If there's options, I'd notate which options they are. It's very, very transparent and it's very
different compared to the boiler rooms that you see out there where it's just a bunch of nonsense and 500 ideas a week.
I run 10 to 20 positions at a time.
I share a thesis for every single position that I open.
And we've done a damn good job at stock picking
since we started this service three years ago.
And the returns are proof of that.
The size of the community is proof of that.
The retention rate and the membership is proof of that. But, um, if you're somebody that wants to join, this is kind
of, um, the time to do it because again, prices will be going up permanently tonight and then
they will be doubling. So, um, they're not going up by a little bit, they will be doubling. So
if you've been interested or if you're listening to the show for years, I know some of you come
in and listen to me talk every day on the show for the last few years. If you're one of those people that feels like you think I know what I'm talking about,
and I think if you've listened to the stock picks, you probably do feel that way,
then come join us. And if not, no worries. I'll still be on Spaces. Spaces are free.
I do a lot of free content. I tweet ideas occasionally. But keep in mind, those are always going to be with a delay.
You know, all of the stuff that the research goes to the community first and is prioritized there.
So, yeah, that's just a little two cents, a little quick pitch there for those of you that want to join.
You can click on my profile at Stock Talk Weekly and there's a link and you can go check out the reviews there and and so on and so forth so yeah that's uh happening tonight um so last
couple of hours before uh prices are gonna go up so if you're interested go check it out if not
no worries
yeah there's a lot of also stuff.
I know you got a whole crew as well
that is in there doing some good stuff.
Shout out to Wall Street Engine.
I see how he's hanging out down below.
Awesome news guy.
I see some of his picks.
Got Danny, Mystic, I know,
and a bunch of others.
So it's not just Stock Talk coming in there.
You also get some Evan memes
every once in a while dropping them.
Yeah, we have lots of great annals in there. I mean, some Evan memes every once in a while dropping them. Yeah, we have lots of great
analysts in there. Wall Street's been killing it this year.
He just nailed Warby Parker
just a couple days ago
before that. Clear, Secure,
which had a 40% earnings gap up.
He nailed that as well. We have
a lot of great analysts
there. Yanezu, Wall Street Engine,
Danny,
Urkel, Fat. We have Gladiator Trades, who's amazing as
well. I mean, everyone's just amazing in there. A lot of great...
Don't forget Netflix. He freaking nailed Netflix.
Yeah. Yeah. Netflix. I mean, large caps, mid caps, everything. For me personally,
I focus on some mid caps. That's my area of focus. I'm focusing on generally mid caps or two to 10 billion market
caps, but there are a couple of small caps in my portfolio. Right now, there are three small caps
in my portfolio. I have currently 19 positions. So most of the portfolio is mid caps and large
caps, but there are a handful of small caps. I only buy small caps if I think they're really compelling opportunities.
You know, I have bought a new one last week that I haven't shared with you guys yet.
All of the picks now are going to be on a delay when they come to stocks on spaces, but you guys will hear about them.
I'll probably talk about that this one, that one this week.
It's an AI fraud and verified identity play i think is very compelling
um the small cap that i added before that was earlier this year pen geologistics ticker panl
picked that up at 723 that stock's trading in the nines today if you look at that daily chart i mean
what a beautiful daily chart on that thing um and then the name the small cap that we picked before
that one was oss uh late last year at $4.71.
And now that stock's trading close to nine bucks as well.
So most of our picks have done extremely well.
I shouldn't say most, but 98% of our picks have done extremely well.
And that's a product of research, deep research, very, very careful, intentional stock picking at the right spots on the charts, but also
at the right valuations. And that's given us an ability to hold stocks through a tremendous amount
of market volatility, especially single stock volatility this year has been quite difficult
to handle if you don't have those cost basis advantages and those cushions on your positions.
cost basis advantages and those cushions on your positions. So, um, yeah, I like to think that we
do one of the best retail stock picking services in the world, if not the best, I think the
membership that we have speaks to that, the retention rate that we have speaks to that.
And certainly the performance speaks to that and share all of that transparently. So yeah,
go check it out if you're interested.
If not, again, I still will be talking on Stocks on Spaces every day for free.
So, you know, if that's enough for you, cool.
If you want more information from me, more insights,
you want to be able to ask me questions 24-7, all that's available in there.
So, yeah, if you want to get more intimate into the stock picking process that's
the place to do it um tell me more about like the mindset aspects of it the workshop aspects of this
the learning aspects of it we talk a lot about some of the you know there's a lot of different
parts of this game that are happening here whether it's
picking the right stock staying in that right company basic ta getting the in between your
head correctly all that stuff how does how do you kind of help yeah so so there's obviously a lot
of different approaches to trading that work or investing that work even the guys the other
analysts in the server we all have have different styles to a degree.
My style is picking and holding.
I could probably make an incrementally higher percentage return
by being a little bit more active,
but there would also be tax implications to that.
So you have to weigh that.
But yeah, I teach a lot as well um i do workshops every week record them i just go over my view on how you should be looking at
charts i take a very simple view on charts right just price volume, couple of moving averages. That's it. I don't use any like
complicated indicators, Bollinger Bands, heat maps, you know, liquidity maps. I don't use any
of that stuff. I don't think it's necessary. I never have, you know, for over 10 years, I've
just been using simple charts and I try to teach people how to do that. And also what to look for what technical structure
is, how you should think about fundamentals. I made a workshop a couple weeks ago about
how to tell if a stock is cheap. You know, what metrics you should be looking at. If a stock's
in one industry or another, you know, when you should be looking at P ratio versus price to sales versus EV over EBITDA, right? Like those are simple lessons. And so if you're a new trader
and you want to be educated, there's a, we do plenty of that as well. And if you're an experienced
trader, you want to skip the education, you can go straight to the stock picking and the actionable
content. But we, we do focus on everything being actionable you know i give reminders to all of
our team members all of our analysts all the time i want all the content to be actionable and
if you ever go to my journal in in um the discord it's all actionable content
like i just tell you what i am doing literally exactly what i'm doing and then you can follow it
or you can not follow it. You can
just look at it and be like, okay, I'm going to mark that stock and I'll look, look for an entry
point at some point. There's many different ways to use the content, but bottom line is we tell
you exactly what we are doing, exactly what we are doing and the rest is up to you. And people
have benefited tremendously from it. you know i think that's
the reason why we're so well received you know if you ever go through the post whenever i post
about our group on twitter you go through the comments it's just people who love it you know
or whose lives have been changed by it or maybe their kids college tuitions have been paid off
or their mortgage has been paid off i love love seeing that personally. It makes me happy that we're helping people,
but it's not some bullshit service like all these other ones.
Like I'm not talking about anybody in particularly,
but the vast majority of discord services are just boiler rooms.
They're nonsense.
Right.
And we take pride in it not being like that.
It's not like that at all.
And so if you're somebody that's been rubbed the wrong way by Discord or you've been rubbed the wrong way by a subscription service, I encourage you to take a peek at ours and see how different it is because it really is different.
I don't know any Discords where people are posting the type of detail on portfolio updates that I'm doing with every cost basis, every waiting, every live entry and exit.
I mean, I certainly haven't been a member of any discords that are doing that. And
more and more of our analysts are adopting that, you know, Wall Street Engine now,
I mentioned earlier, he's also sharing all of his open positions, what the waitings are,
what the entries are. And so more and more of our analysts are doing that now. And so,
you know, it's just getting more transparent by the day.
And look, win or lose, we can't hide from it.
You know, when I have losing stock pick, I can't hide from it because I share a thesis
and I share an entry point.
You know, if stocks down for my cost base, it's down.
I don't like pretend it's not there.
It's not like on the next portfolio update, it's not going to mat.
That stock's magically not going to not there. It's not like on the next portfolio update, that stock's magically not going to be there.
No, I embrace the fact that I don't have a perfect entry on every stock.
That's okay.
But overwhelmingly, if you go through the portfolio,
overwhelmingly the stock picks are excellent.
And that's a product of hard work and a lot of research.
A lot of research.
The reason I'm not that active on Twitter, you guys see, I don't tweet a lot.
I don't like, you know, I'm not wasting my time really much on Twitter.
I don't scroll through my Twitter feed looking for ideas.
I do my own research.
And that's what most of my time is spent on every week.
Like the vast majority of my time on a week to week basis is
spent researching individual stocks. And occasionally, very occasionally, I find what I
like. And so I put out picks at a very, very relaxed cadence when I have conviction. And when
I don't have conviction, I just don't buy the stock. It's really that simple. Um, so yeah, everything's
shared there. Research portfolio, live entries, exits, updates, um, all that good stuff. So, um,
I think it's the best community out there. Obviously I'm biased saying that, but
our members would probably tell you the same thing. So, um, yeah, we'll see you in there.
If you're interested, if you're not interested, I'll still be here on Spaces every day.
So whatever floats your boat.
But, yeah, that is – I wanted to kind of emphasize that today
because I don't want people tagging me tomorrow saying the price has doubled.
What happened?
I wanted to get in.
I forgot.
I missed it.
Yada, yada, yada.
So I wanted to give you guys that reminder here for those of you that tune in
and listen to us for the last few years. It's effectively
50% off because the prices will double
in four or five hours.
So you're effectively getting
50% off and you'll lock in that rate
for life as long as you stay subscribed.
So yeah.
If you want to outperform the market, you're tired of
losing, you're tired of chasing
shitty stocks, come
see what real stock picking looks like
you know yeah listen we uh i want to take the time today to go into it obviously prices are
going up so no better time to go in and do it and we've been doing these spaces every single day for
every single monday through thursday for like three four years now whatever it is and we haven't
maybe once, twice,
we've taken the time here and really gone a deep dive into the discord that
this type of thing.
So, um, yeah,
I appreciate you guys for sticking with us,
allowing us to be a part of your guys' daily routine.
Obviously our goal is always to bring in top quality content free on the
spaces.
And then we're both doing a lot of crazy stuff around it and stock stock
talk.
The reason you guys are coming here and listening to him is because he's a great stock picker.
Also a great speaker.
He was on the debate team, if anyone didn't know that.
And that's even a little disrespectful, was at the top of the debate team, which I guess some of you guys could have imagined.
But yeah, we appreciate you guys for allowing us to be a part of your guys' routine.
And obviously, this is not going to be what the spaces are normally.
But when times like this,
I think it is good to take that deeper dive in
and let you guys know.
Because I'm sure even a lot of you
don't even know that that room exists.
And you guys just kind of listen to Stock Talk.
So yeah, there's a month-to-month option.
There's a year option.
If you want to just go in and test it for a month, you can.
But yeah, Stock Talk, the uh the rundown there for anyone who doesn't know like he said the the group gets it first
then the space it gets seconds and then then you know he's a wonderful show with ahmed as well
uh timeline stuff like that that comes after it but listen to the spaces follow that host
and you'll get the pick second uh but
you know where to go if you want them first
stock talk i don't when you were talking i almost think it's a shame that the way this kind of online
influencer culture and trading really is because i feel like you people don't want to talk about
their losses but that's really where the lessons are like the great investors and traders like you don't really
see them by how they handle the upside wind it's more on how they how they handle when it doesn't
go in their favor are they going out for me like uh like myself just taking the 100 loss on that
option contract or whatever or are they cutting it at some point in there? I feel like the
loss is really
probably where the difference is
between
people who are profitable
and able to do this long term and not.
Maybe it's not.
It definitely puts the skews in it more in your favor.
Most people don't talk about it.
Taking losses in the market is is part of the game
but understanding that taking losses quickly when you're wrong is what separates like great
performance from average performance because i mean even guys like drunken miller preach this
all the time that like when you're wrong when the price actor is telling you you're wrong,
being stubborn in those moments is a death sentence.
And that's really my MO.
I don't allow myself to go down too much on a position.
If I'm down a couple of percent from the entry, 5%, 6%, 7%, that's okay.
If I like the thesis, that's okay. I'm down down like what 5.6 percent or something on on synaptics on my shares
that's okay with me because i like the thesis yeah i'll sit on that but with other positions
where they're lower conviction or i don't like the thesis as much you know if i go underwater
quickly i'm just out right away and i'll be okay, I'll revisit it at a later point.
And that discipline in loss cutting is important because bag holding is a recipe for disaster in a portfolio.
Like for some of you, if you scroll through your portfolio and you have a bunch of red positions, you're doing it wrong, period.
You're just doing it wrong.
That means you're buying at the wrong places.
And largely that means you don't know how to read a chart.
That's usually the diagnostic I would give to somebody who has a portfolio that looks like that.
You don't know how to read a chart.
don't know how to read a chart. You don't know where you should be buying. And some of you have
You don't know where you should be buying.
been taught this sort of investing philosophy through buzzwords and cliche quotes that you
justify poor entries by saying that you're an investor. That's not a justification.
Being an investor does not justify a poor entry.
You know, Druckenmiller actually just did an interview
with Morgan Stanley this weekend,
which I recommend people go watch.
It's on Morgan Stanley's Twitter page.
It's a 27 or 28-minute interview.
Druckenmiller is one of the greatest of all time.
I mean, he had a, you know, multi-decade period
with 30% annualized returns with zero losing years.
Those are the types of guys you should listen to.
Druckenmiller says this and he says, look, I care about the charts.
I care about the entry, you know, and he's like, look, I don't care too much about what
a stock does volatility wise, but I do care where I buy it.
Right.
That's like one of the greatest of all time telling you that, that the price that you
enter at matters.
Right.
Because look, in some dystopian future, 10 years from now, maybe AI will be running
all of our portfolios.
But for now, you're a human operator and you have to value the psychological edge
that's involved.
You know, another thing Druckenmiller talked about in the interview is nerve.
And he was like, look, he says 20 years ago, he knew less, right?
In terms of his knowledge, he knew less.
He was less wise.
But he was a better PM because he had more nerve.
He had more conviction.
He's willing to size better on the stocks that he liked more.
And he's like, now that I've gotten older and more knowledgeable,
he's like, I'm a little bit more hesitant.
And my sizing is a little bit more hesitant.
One of the examples he gave was like selling NVIDIA pre-split at 800.
And he was like, five weeks later, it was at 1,400.
Five weeks later, it was at 1,400.
And he was like, it made me sick.
But he's like, you know, maybe in his younger self would have held that.
The interviewer asked him that question.
And he said, no.
But, you know, in hindsight, hindsight's 20-20.
He says all the time, he was like, I was a better PM when I was younger.
Because I had more nerve.
So the psychological aspect of trading and investing is hugely important. If you view
everything objectively, just in terms of numbers, and you say, look, if I'm up 200,000 on a position
and the position drops and I take $100,000 drawdown, that's the same thing as if I bought
a stock and instantly took $100,000 drawdown. No, it's not. No, it's not.
Because the former scenario gives you the ability to build into the position and buy the dip.
The latter position does not give you that ability.
What, you're going to be down 20% on a stock and average down on it?
Good luck.
Good luck.
The chances that you hold that are so low.
Right?
What happens if the stock goes down another 10% from there? Now you've upsized a position that you're down 30% on.
Like, that's a death sentence.
It is.
And it will destroy your portfolio.
It will destroy your ability to operate normally in those environments.
You'll be constantly obsessed with that position, looking at it every week.
Like, these things matter.
The psychology of trading matters a lot.
It's hugely, hugely important.
It's maybe the most important factor.
Talking about another GOAT, Peter Lynch.
Peter Lynch has a fantastic quote on this.
I actually have it saved somewhere.
I actually have it saved somewhere.
Let me just read it directly.
Let me just read it directly.
Saved on my little quote saves.
It's saved on my little quote saves.
People who succeed in the stock market accept periodic losses, setbacks, and unexpected occurrences.
Calamitous drops do not scare them out of the game.
The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.
That's a quote from Peter Lynch. Okay, how is not to get scared out of them. That's a quote from Peter Lynch.
Okay, how do you not get scared out of stocks?
The number one way is to have a cost-based advantage.
The number one easiest way to not get scared of a stock is to have a cost-based advantage.
If you see green on your screen, the likelihood that you'll panic sell that position is magnitudes lower than if you're down on it.
Right? If the markets crash next week, I will still be green on 90% of my positions.
If the markets crash, I'll still be green on the majority of the portfolio. I'll probably cut
three or four names, but that's it. I'll probably buy the dip on other high conviction names that see a drawdown.
That is flexibility.
If you bought everything in your portfolio two weeks ago and the market crashes, what's going to happen?
You're going to sell everything.
You're going to be down on everything.
You're going to sell everything.
You're going to panic sell on everything you're going to sell everything we're going to panic sell everything that's the difference that's why cost-based advantage matters that's why entry
price matters that's why knowing how to read a chart matters even if you're an investor i cannot
count over the years how many great investors i've talked to even friends of mine who are like i don't
need to know how to read a chart because i've done well investing without knowing it. That's no excuse. That's no excuse. You should care about maximizing the return on
your capital. And in order to do that, you should be knowledgeable about the fundamentals,
the technicals, and the thematic relevance. All of them are important. And
when you get to that point, you will not only realize the
psychological benefits, but you'll see the objective benefits in your performance as well.
And if I was talking to a brand new trader and enter into the market, the number one thing I
would tell them before I told them how to learn to read a chart or learn how to read a balance
sheet or learn how to identify a theme, the number one thing I would tell them before I told them how to learn to read a chart or learn how to read a balance sheet or learn how to identify a theme, the number one thing I would tell them is learn how to manage your psychology.
Like, everyone knows themselves.
You know what your risk tolerance is.
You know, okay, if I'm down $100,000 on a position, I will not allow it to go down more.
If I'm down a million, I mean, this depends on your portfolio
size, but you should know what max risk looks like to you. You should know what your risk tolerance
looks like. You should know your propensity to buy into fear, or sorry, to sell into fear,
or to buy into greed. You should know your propensity to do that. And once you've identified
those psychological weaknesses, you should take
steps to combat those psychological weaknesses. Right? Because you're not going to become an
alien or a robot. That's not going to happen. You will be emotional about the markets.
There's another thing Druck touched on in this Morgan Stanley interview this weekend, too. He
was like, I'm an emotional guy. I get emotional. I think through emotion. He was talking about when
he sold NVIDIA. He's like, that was an emotional decision. It was up too much and too short of a
period of time, even though he loved the thesis and he still sold it. And to him in hindsight,
that was a mistake because he succumbed to his emotions. So even the best in the world,
it still happens.
It happens to me too.
As much as I'm preaching about it here to control your psychology,
I'm not acting like I'm immune to it.
I've panic sold stocks.
I've been shaken out of names.
I mean, IRDM, which I got back into last week with calls,
the 22.5 calls, I got shaken out of that in December of last year.
I first bought it in December of last year. I first bought it in
December of last year, put in a whole thesis. And then the price action was choppy and shitty for a
couple of weeks. And I got shaken out and then it ripped to the, to 24. And I was like, all right,
I need to get back in this thing. So I waited for an entry. And then, you know, on Friday,
I saw a good entry as it came into the 21 EMA. So I bought it. And, you know, then it was up Friday and up again today.
So, I mean, you're not going to be perfect, but you need to take steps, defensive steps, to defend your psychological fitness.
You need to take the necessary, you know, steps in portfolio management to fight against those psychological weaknesses.
Because they're going to be there either way.
And if you don't want to get shaken out of high conviction stocks, you want to be able to hold stocks through multi-bagger moves.
You want to be able to hold stocks through volatility-bagger moves. You want to be able to hold stocks through volatility.
This is how the money is made in markets.
Holding during those periods.
And it's impossible to do if you don't prepare yourself to do it.
If you don't buy at the right prices, at reasonable valuations.
Like, you know, one stock I own, Kratos, which I've owned for a while,
has been a shop-fest nightmare for the last six months or so.
Right.
I haven't even thought about selling it.
And that, too, is a stock that I think is expensive.
Right.
But my cost basis is so low.
That it doesn't matter.
Like, you know, and at this point, it's like less than a 2% waiting for me.
So that helps as well.
But, you know, I have $40 calls expiring
in January of next year that are up like 1,700%.
When I see volatility in the stock,
I'm like, okay, whatever.
Like, I still like the name.
I like the company.
I like the opportunities that are ahead of them.
I like the fact that there are potential
multi-billion dollar sole source awards that they could secure. So I'm
not going to sell it, even though I think it's expensive, even though the chart has been
difficult to handle. Why? Because I have put myself in a position to have psychological
fitness about that position. If I did not have the cost, if I had bought Kratos at a hundred, I probably wouldn't
be holding it right now. Or if I bought Kratos at 120 or 130, I wouldn't be holding it right now,
but I bought it in the twenties. And so I'm going to hold it. The same thing with like OSS,
which is one of the small caps I own. I bought it at 471. It's been a choppy, crazy, volatile stock for the last two months.
I haven't even thought about selling it. In fact, I've just thought about buying more.
Why? Because I have protected my psychology in the position I have a deep cost disadvantage.
I go down the list, and this is just true for every position I own.
You know, VRV, okay? That one has not been that ball top of the downside.
It's been pretty easy to hold,
but I still haven't sold any because I really,
really have high conviction on that stock.
I look at the monthly chart on that stock.
I see a ton of potential.
And so I'm holding through a multi-bagger move on that,
right?
It's more than doubled from our entry.
I bought it at 1358.
The stock's trading at 35 today.
and I'm not selling,
you know,
it's almost a triple for my entry so
yeah it's kind of i'm at the point of cutting and repetitive now on this topic but
yeah psychology is the most important thing in markets to be successful period in my opinion
over everything over technical skill over fundamental skill over everything buying at the right price is the most important thing um and i'll die on that hill um you should know how to read a chart
you should know how to read a balance sheet you should know how to decipher an earnings call
you should know how to go through a 10q or 10k you should know how to do these things but beyond all of it is psychological fitness because markets are crazy place they're volatile there's
market crashes every five to seven years there's 10 pullbacks basically every year um you know
there's 40 50 60 pullbacks and high beta stocks all the time like it's fashionable it just happens all the time you know you'll see high-flying names
pull back 30 or 40 every single quarter you'll find a couple of names doing that um
so put yourself in a position to be able to endure a 30 drawdown put yourself in a position
to do that and if you're not you're probably buying at the wrong prices.
Plain and simple.
Where cushions are built is intra-quarter performance.
In other words, in between earnings reports.
That's where you build your cushions.
And if you're unable to build a cushion on a position in between earnings reports, you're highly risk exposed.
Sure, you might get a gap up, but you might also get a gap down.
And then all of a sudden, you go from a stock, you might've been up 10 or 12% onto your underwater. And now
you're grasping for straws. Do I average down? Do I trim into weakness? Do I just sell the position
outright and revisit it? You're faced with all of these poor decisions. You're faced with a
multiple choice of four bad decisions, right? Rather than, oh, well, yeah, I went from
being up 110% on the position to being up 63% on the position, I'll buy more. Or I'll trim some of
my options here just to take some waiting off. Or I'll roll out some calls or I'll, you know,
whatever. I mean, those options, those multiple choice options,
being up on the position are far superior
to the decisions you have to make
when you're down on a position.
So just do not put yourself in a position
to be a bag holder ever.
Just never allow it to happen.
You know, the three outcomes for a position
should be either a big win, a small loss, or a small win. That's it.
A big loss shouldn't even be a categorical option for you. You shouldn't allow it to happen.
The difference between the markets at a blackjack table is you can't set a stop loss at a blackjack
table. You can in the markets. And you can also in the markets make decisive decisions when price
is going against you or when price is going with you. You can make decisions in the markets, make decisive decisions when price is going against you or when price is going
with you. You can make decisions in the middle of the trade, in the middle of the opportunity.
And so you have to do that. You have to be active to a degree and do that. If you sit and stare at
your portfolio every day and you go, I'm not going to do anything because I'm an investor,
because I'm an investor, that's just being lazy.
That's all that is.
So, yeah.
And before I close this,
that only applies to people who are buying individual stocks.
Everything I just said for the last 20 minutes
only applies to people who are buying individual stocks.
If you own the S&P 500 and you just average into it on a regular basis, then you don't
need to worry about anything I just said.
And you can just keep doing that.
And for most of you, that might be the right decision.
But if you want to take on the game of like, I'm going to pick stocks and I'm going to
outperform the market, then everything I just said is highly important.
So depends on who you are.
But yeah. i just said is highly important so depends on who you are but yeah
i think that was an awesome talk right there like we were saying earlier with stock talk
grouping about a double price you guys want to check that out it is the link in his bio
should make sure you are following all the speakers up here stocks and spaces always a
fantastic time i'm really excited for this next chat that we have coming up here always a great time first hour we had Scott
Redler second hour we had some stock talk insights this third hour we have I we're lucky to be having
the Motley Fool team joining us in here gonna have some good conversations talking about Motley Fool
asset management and some stuff under there but Gov I see you joining us up here hello good sir
I like the profile picture I know it's been there for a little bit but i don't know how much i've seen
on spaces it's uh it's the old co-host through we got up here it feels weird but how you doing sir
i'm doing good i'm doing good nice to see that swing back in the market today uh i don't know
i don't know if i saw as many people calling for doom and gloom over the
weekend as some,
but nice to see us,
you know,
basically putting a flat day.
Ultimately,
I think here on SPY by the end of the day,
but holding all these key levels and market coming back to essentially being
flat on the air as well,
I believe.
So not too shabby there.
A lot of the names that I'm looking at continuing to catch a bounce right
here.
Uranium,
big day up right here on you.UU was something that I was watching.
Seeing if we'll get a continuation here.
You know, a lot of the copper and gold names are at all-time highs or very, very, very
close to all-time highs.
So excited to see if they can continue to break out.
Those have been things I've been watching.
And then just some of these more general broad-based ETFs as well.
That's been a lot of what's made up my portfolio lately.
And I found a lot of value in them.
It's helped me stay.
My long-term port, it's no stock talk, but I'm up 5.5% year to date.
And I'm happy with that for where the indexes are in comparison.
So I'll take it at the moment and just continuing to push forward.
But yeah, we've got both Bill and Shelby up here from Motley Fool Asset Management team.
Definitely wanted to bring in some experts here, their thoughts on this market with so much happening.
Anything else you want to go over first, Evan?
You want to jump in?
No, I'm excited.
I'm excited to jump in.
Okay, perfect.
Bill, Shelby, can you both hear us well?
Yeah, loud and clear over here.
Yeah, I hear you.
Great.
Do you hear me? We got you. We got you. That's perfect? Yeah, loud and clear over here. Yeah, I hear you. Great. Do you hear me?
We got you.
We got you.
That's perfect.
I see that Motley Fool account,
Motley Fool Asset Management account jumped up here as well.
So excited to do this.
We're just going to keep talking about the market here.
For those that are in the audience,
bringing in two top-tier investment analysts
from Motley Fool Asset Management.
You could see Bill Mann is the chief investment strategist.
And then Shelby McFadden is the Investment Analyst
over at Flu ETFs, both joining us on stage.
Pretty exciting.
So this is a collaboration between
Wolf, Motley Fool, and SIBO, actually,
if anyone has been checking them out lately.
Kind of third party in the exchange world
beside NASDAQ and NYSE. So SIBO, a lot of ETFs getting
listed there, helped put together this space. So shout out to them. Just before we get started,
quick disclosure, because we are going to talk some of their specific products. Investors,
please carefully consider a fund's investment objectives, risk charges, and expenses prior to
investing. Funds prospectus and semi-perspectus contain this and other information about the
Motley Fool asset management ETFs. And to obtain the funds prospectus for Semi-Prospectives, you can just go right to their website.
They've got a good one, fooletfs.com.
And you can view both the prospectus and Semi-Prospectives on there.
And again, excited to be collaborating with you all for this space and working together with SIBO to set this up.
So with that being said, want to just take it from a high level,
maybe starting with yourself, Phil,
just thoughts on this market
and where we are sitting right now.
Obviously, there's a lot of global conflict
and turmoil happening right now too.
So just take it from the top.
I hadn't heard.
I do want to make a pitch as well.
Both Shelby and I do monthly commentaries.
You can find them at Fool ETFs uh mine is called man on the street and shelby what is yours called mine's called mcfadden on the
markets mcfadden on the market so uh we put a lot of uh we put a lot of work into these into our
into our commentaries and yeah so i've been with uh the motley fool complex since 1999 so I've been with the Motley Fool Complex since 1999.
So I've been around for a while.
Shelby hasn't been much anywhere since 1999.
So I'm the chief investment strategist for Fool Funds. And prior to that, I've had a number of roles investing with the Motley Fool.
And I was the original founding CIO The Motley Fool, and I was the original founding
CIO for Motley Fool Asamander.
Yeah, I can't disagree with you there, Bill.
I was maybe headed to preschool in 1999, so you may have got me on that one.
I joined The Fool.
It's actually going to be five years in about a week or two.
I previously was at an outsourced chief investment office
working in first the private equity team and then the public equity team. For anyone who's not
familiar, it's basically just taking one step higher in the pyramid where you're choosing the
managers instead of actually running the strategies. So I decided to go ahead and take that step
down into the depths of financial statement analysis and getting into the weeds of headlines and
deciding how much these companies are worth. So I've been doing that on this team for about five
years. And recently I stepped into a portfolio management role for our global opportunities
fund. So it's been really exciting. No two weeks have been a bore in my time here,
and I don't think we're getting a lull anytime soon no certainly not
yeah this yeah and i definitely encourage people to check out that research like they mentioned
yeah evan go for it let's jump into i was just saying there is a tweet pinned up in the nest
above uh as well as some of the holdings in uh tmfc so obviously you guys have there's so much
knowledge around this ecosystem you guys have and there's so much knowledge around this ecosystem you guys have,
and there's a huge community there.
And there's been a large theme of community on this basis here.
So I'm just curious on how Motley Fool Asset Management
and kind of Motley Fool like are kind of linked there and stuff.
And obviously one of the ETFs are pinned up in the nest above.
People should dig in, go to the website.
I'll get that website up there and I'll get the other one in.
But I'm just curious how we can end end up how that kind of ends up linking
together and like what the value that's driven from that whole community being linked to it
okay so again i've been at the i've been at the fool for you know 26 years at this point so i
think i i can i could speak to this Motley Fool Asset Management started in 2008,
which seems like a pretty weird time to have stood up an asset management company. It was
in the midst of the global financial crisis. And the reason that we did it is The Motley Fool has
always been all about the individual investor and making recommendations, trying to make individual
investors help them make better decisions. And what we realized during the dot-com crash in 2002 through 2004 was that during times of stress,
people didn't necessarily default to judgment.
They would default to fear.
They would default to emotion.
And so when we started Motley Fool Asset Management, it was, it was, it was kind of a side of desk for, for the Motley Fool itself to give people a place to go so that they had a helping hand during times of, during times of things. The first of which was that asset management was a business that deserved its own, you know, its own attention and its own gravity. So we really, we professionalized our
business. We moved, we transitioned from mutual funds into ETFs. And I'm so, so glad that we did.
It's a much better vehicle for people to invest in for a host of different reasons,
both informational and in terms of tax efficiency. So the Motley Fool itself has always been about
high quality investing. And so if you think about even our six passive funds, the very top of the
funnel for them is the research that comes from the Motley Fool. So TMFC is simply the largest 100 companies
that are within the Motley Fool recommended universe.
We have four other large cap strategies
that are factor based on top of that,
but they're all based on the Motley Fool's determination
of what a high quality company is,
companies that we can hold for a really long time,
that there are companies that are in the TMFC and our other portfolios that have been recommendations
from the Motley Fool since the 1990s. So we are very, very serious about how we go about
finding companies and holding them through thick and thin.
I'm curious your thoughts on this market,
and Shelby, I'll come and do a question after.
This is obviously a very interesting market we have going on right now,
and Shelby was even talking about there's been no dull two weeks here.
So I'm curious your thoughts on 2026 so far.
We've had software Armageddon.
We have literal war.
We have just so much different spots going on in
different pockets we have precious metals absolutely ripping um i'm curious your thoughts
on this year and like sometimes you just take a day 20 you go from 2025 2026 here we are in march
maybe you can argue the themes of the first two months of the year may not be the same going
forward so yeah i'm curious your thoughts in this year and that perspective and maybe how you
think the next couple months going.
Is it a similar regime or do you expect some change?
I would say that the one thing that we have noticed more than anything else, and we can
take what's happened today and just put a pin in it for a moment, because a lot did
happen today.
I heard Gov talking about it beforehand.
It's fantastic that the market ended up flat.
But I would say that the largest theme that has happened
so far this year has been, I guess,
what you would call valuation fatigue.
So for years, we have expected,
and we've been nervous about the fact
that the largest 10 companies within the S&P 500 all generally came from the same segment. We all call them the MAG-7. Whatever it is,
however it is you describe it, technology in the top 10 companies are somewhere close to 40%
of the valuation of the S&P 500, which is historically high. And they trade at price to sales ratios, 9, 10, 11, 12, which is
also historically very, very high. The great bet that you could make over the last five years would
be to have held on to those companies thick and thin. It has paid off the entire time. And I think
that we've come to a point in time in which people are looking at these businesses as $5 trillion, $3 trillion, $4 trillion market cap companies and
saying, is this company really worth as much as two Germanys? Or is this company really worth,
does it have the financial capacity and the operational capacity to generate cash flows from the rest of the, you know, from the rest of the global economy that will, you know, that will make this market cap, you know, a market cap at which this company can be invested in?
And I think that what you've seen over the last, you know, over the last couple of months, really starting in December was, was, was really a, you know, a, the first time that we've seen in a couple of years a skepticism, you know, of, of, of the, of the capacity of the largest American companies to generate profits. And that's beyond global politics. It's beyond questioning whether these are good
businesses. I think that they unquestionably are, but there is an endless amount of mistakes that
you can make buying a great business at the wrong price. And I think that that's probably what the
market is trying to digest right now.
Shelby, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on that. Obviously, I kind of think of this whole stuff that's been happening in the software sector
and a lot of AI fears and just saw all the stocks moving down.
There are some names that who knows what they're going to do in the future, but there's probably
definitely some opportunities being created there.
So I'm curious to your thoughts, similar question, what he's talked about there this year, the themes.
Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. I think when we narrow specifically down to AI and software and the
sort of interconnectedness there, I think we're seeing the first part of the invoice being paid,
right? So we've been saying the bill has to come due, right? The past, I would say,
18 months or so, there's been a sort of quiet agreement that we're just going to wait and see.
And now we're getting to a point where not only do a lot of the hyperscalers need to show their
investors that they are really doing something with this and that there is a return on investment.
And it's not just a matter of, well, here's our backlog and here's how much we're spending on CapEx. The software companies
that were previously rewarded for having something that was very tangible in a time when AI was just
a really big question mark. I mean, last week we were talking about how a few years ago people
were laughing at just, you know, the metagoggles, right? You know, is this as far as we're going
with AI? What is all of this data center spending? Is this as far as we're going with AI? What is all of this data
center spending? Is this really what the outcome is going to be? And now there's a matter of,
does your product actually stand up? I tend to fall into the camp that a lot of the punishment
is overdone, but even still, it doesn't mean that we are not overdue for taking a look at some of
these companies and saying, can you actually make a better product with AI or can AI go ahead and eat up some of your product?
So that's part of what we're seeing in this sort of software Armageddon. I think in the sort of
forensic view that investors are now starting to apply to the whole market is taking some of that
concept of valuation fatigue that Bill had mentioned and applying it to the other sectors that have been able to sort of sneak by being sort of overvalued,
but not having that same sort of magnifying lens on them. So we saw it happen a little bit in
payments. When you look at some of the payment networks and processors, there was a premium on
those companies for quite some time. And over the
past 12 to 18, we've seen it sort of chip off. We've seen companies that have been robust in
their valuation, sort of investors like myself saying these are great holds, but gosh, this is
unreasonable. And they've slowly chipped off over time. We've seen certain retail companies that
have been stalwarts that do provide a tremendous amount of value, but we're almost treated like the gold of the stock market. Let's just pile in my cash here. And we've seen those come off a little bit too. So I think part of what we're witnessing as well is just that cash is also not delivering at such an attractive rate right now that you would come out of the equity market. We did witness that
shift, right? We saw things pour into cash. We saw, you know, it remained more attractive
than the equity market for a short period of time. We're not yet at a place where questions about
who's going to dominate or what's going to dominate the equity market are enough to decrease the appetite for risk assets.
So what you see in that point is then a constant sort of seesawing of, well, let's go over here
back to blue chips versus let's do a little bit more risk on within risk assets. I think we're
going to continue to see those sorts of rotations as these companies are able to tell us what their
next moves are. So at this point, Outlook is king.
That seems to be what's moving markets, especially after filings and earnings calls.
Yeah, Bill?
No, I was going to say, just to follow up on something that Shelby said,
one of the things that we really focus on, Motley Fool Asset Management,
is the path dependency of how people feel about
the market at any given time. So the S&P 500 obviously has underperformed almost every other
global index in the world. It's still trading in a PE of 29, which is historically very robust.
You can even go and look at the sector that feels uninvestable right now, which is historically very robust. You can even go and look at the sector that feels uninvestable right now,
which is the software and services sector.
And it's trading at a PE of about 18, which is about historically,
it's still historically high.
So there's plenty to be said about the fact that the market itself, that we are within certain components of the market, seeing a little bit of softness from areas that have really not shown us any reason to be anything but confident over periods being measured in years.
periods being measured in years.
Yeah, those are some good points there.
And Shelby, one of the things that you said at the end,
kind of around forward guidance being the thing driving us,
I've sensed an interesting theme coming up this earnings season
where the guidance for next quarter seems to be missing
a little bit more often than the guidance for the fiscal year
we have coming up here.
And the stocks are getting hit on that,
even though maybe they're going to end up in the same place.
I guess the market, there's just more risk involved,
maybe in it coming in the second half of the year.
But it has been an interesting theme
that I saw through this earnings season.
And I'd be curious your thoughts
on this earnings season in general,
if there was anything that stood out.
We were talking a little bit earlier.
There were some names that reported today
and just huge movers.
This feels like maybe a, again, I don't have the data to back it and maybe someone else
does, but this is empirically felt like a little bit more of a volatile earnings season
than some of the ones in the past.
So I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on those.
Yeah, so to sort of bite that off in smaller chunks, starting with the quarter instead of half year guidance, one of the mechanisms that the market depends heavily on is sell side research.
And those analysts are typically updating either on major filings or on the earnings reports, the pressers, the 10 Qs.
reports, the pressers, the 10 Qs. And so the inability to update not just what happened,
or rather they can, of course, update what happened the previous quarter, but
missing any sort of, this is what we're expecting immediately, it can leave the models being a
little bit stale. And that can affect sort of any sort of investor perception on the companies going forward. So even though a number of
investors, including us, we take a long-term view, the models can be sensitive. And given the fact
that we are now going what we're kind of approaching the one year from Liberation Day,
not having quarterly guidance in that sort of one-year period, it's something that people
are definitely itching for. How can it still be okay over the full year? Well, there's a lot that goes into the
estimates for a full year. There's a lot that can smooth out between two quarters. So from the
company's point of view, from the operator's point of view, they're thinking there's not much of a
difference. But investors like to be able to tinker with models. That's just something that is just tried
and true. When we're thinking about your, was it your next question, sort of how is earnings going
on the whole? I would say that at this juncture, I mean, we're heading into some retail earnings.
The sort of economic data that we have received thus far suggests that retail earnings shouldn't be too much of a shock, at least not on the sort of relevant market side. It'll really come down to
operators again. I would say at this point, from what I have seen, most of my coverage and glances
at the broad market, it's been somewhat muted. We've again seen that the majority of outperformance and positive earnings has come
from a concentrated part in the market. But it's also not been so sort of negative that anyone is
interested in moving capital in droves. There also seems to be a pretty wide splash zone, as we like to call it,
when it comes to what AI is doing and affecting the market. So a few years ago, if you were
nervous about one place in the market, you kind of just moved everything into tech or software.
But there's a sort of pickiness now that's touching all sectors. It seems that real estate
is a bit of a hot potato, but also so is logistics, but also maybe retail is
not great, but maybe parts of retail are great. And so it's not, there don't seem to be these
designated safe zones. And that requires everyone to stay a lot more diligent and frankly, just do
a lot more work, which for us as active investors, that's what we're having to do. So, and again, to the sort of final point of outlook,
it is how we form expectations. And there are certain businesses where you could probably,
even without management giving you some sort of guidance, you could probably grow them at a sort
of inflation plus and be able to get reasonably close to where management is going to, or where
the company is actually going to end up barring any sort of major restructuring. So addition of
assets via acquisition or the selling of assets and therefore the shrinking of the company. So
barring that, you can usually grow at some sort of inflation plus algorithm that's deducted from looking at the past. And so it's this situation where
the outlook that we're looking for is what does management know that we can't know
from inflation plus modeling? That tends to be, at least for me, what I'm interested in.
What are the sort of things that you're not talking about unless someone asks you on an earnings call? What are the suppliers telling you about rebates? What are you hearing from your peers? What are the coffee shop, you know, driving range conversations that you're having that we can only, well, we're only getting guidance on the year, we're not getting guidance in the quarter, and maybe we won't get an update into
how the year is going until the end of the fiscal year. We don't like that.
That was fantastically said. Bill, I tend to come in with a couple questions in one, so
I appreciate you working your way through it. Listen, I could tell just by this conversation, Bill, Shelby, that Motley Fool asset management team is really
smart. You guys should make sure you are following them. Spaces is a great way to come in and find
new people. You know, just smart people doing stuff is really hard to hide when you are talking
live and just getting questions. We didn't have any talks before on this on what we were going
to ask them. So you can really tell who knows what they're talking about
and who doesn't. Spaces is a really great way to find them. So check out the people up here,
give Bill and Shelby a follow and that Motley Fool asset management account up here a follow as well.
But Bill, I wonder if you have any thoughts on any of those questions or Shelby's responses to them.
on any of those questions or Shelby's responses to them.
So something crazy happened today.
And I know that, you know, I know that, you know, everybody's heard about, you know, the
U.S. attack on Iran this over the weekend.
Something big happened today that I think it's going to have some real repercussions
over the next couple of months.
And that is today, Lloyd's of London suddenly pulled insurance, canceled
insurance for ships going through the Hormuz Strait, which is in between Iran and the UAE.
And there's always been a theory that Iran could close the Hormuz Strait.
They really probably can't,
but Lloyd's of London absolutely can.
And they did, and so today,
they canceled a bunch of insurance policies.
And usually in times of war,
you see insurance policies being repriced.
Like everything is, every risk has a certain level
at which an insurance company will accept to be the
counterparty. And we saw some really fascinating moves from companies that don't usually move this
much. Berkshire Hathaway, for example, the A shares were down $37,000 today, which is almost
5%, a massive, massive move for them. They are tied in very closely with Lloyd's.
One of the more interesting things about what's happening with Lloyd's,
and I think that this is going to be really a rebalancing of an industry,
is that Lloyd's really controls about 90% of global trade that is ocean-borne. And one of the reasons that they are is that
they've got the best information. And so when you see the British government saying they didn't know
really anything about the scope of the U.S. attacks on Iran, it tells you that information
isn't finding its way to London. And to me, that is an area that has huge implications
throughout the financial system,
not just in the movement of commerce, but everywhere.
They insure everything.
They insure buildings.
They insure airports.
They insure financing.
They insure executives.
And so it is a big thing to pay attention to.
Yeah, definitely is.
Definitely is.
We're at the start of this.
There's a lot of different claims going on around right now.
I did just see the US came out and said that Iran hasn't blocked it off and there isn't
a ship going on.
But that's not really the point here.
The point is, is that just the fear
of it happening is and just a couple of them ships being or whatever happened there is enough to bring
this to a halt and i also think that there is another uh choke point on the other side which
was where you know yemen and the hutis are and the babel men dev straight which is uh with the
suez canal at the other end of that has also really hasn't become a topping point here yet, but I'm sure it could be.
So this could be a very interesting couple of weeks there from,
I'm not a big energy oil gas guy, so I'm leaning off of the knowledge of others in this area.
It does seem like a lot of the opinions are that if this is a one, two week thing,
it won't have that
massive of an impact. Once it starts getting past that, once we start getting into months,
there are some of those geopolitical and kind of energy oil gas dynamics that start to play out.
Right. So I've been a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder since the 90s. And so property
and casualty insurance is something that I know pretty well. And the facts. And so property and casualty insurance
is something that I know pretty well.
And the fact of the matter is, and yes, you're right
to point out the Suez and the Red Sea as well,
it's the insurance that's the issue.
The insurance can stop ships from moving
through these choke points in a way that no drone can,
no, you know, no missile can. It's, you know, and usually it has been the case that insurance
just, it just adjusts, you know, so you, you know, it's been very rare, even in points of time of,
you know, of great geopolitical stress when,
in which Lloyd's hasn't done the due diligence that they could say, okay,
it was X and now it is five X. They're not even saying that.
They're saying it is unpricable.
And that is something that I think is that we need to pay very close
attention to. Yeah. Very close attention. Hopefully it's,
it's not what's going to be coming,
but definitely something that we got to pay attention to.
Quickly, I'm Berkshire Hathaway,
because this might have been the worst time for this to happen with him,
because not only is this whole insurance stuff happening,
there also was their earnings over the weekend,
which I saw it being reported as not so great.
I don't know. It's fine.
But it was also the big thing for me was this was kind of the end, the real kind of book close Warren Buffett's time there.
When I first saw it this morning, my mind more went to that as being the reason I was going.
Insurance is probably the real one. That makes a lot more sense.
But it is interesting.
Obviously, Warren Buffett stepped down as of the end of last year, but this was their
earnings for that same time period.
On the website, they updated the shareholder letter to, say, Greg Abel from Warren Buffett.
It was just a really interesting time in the Berkshire Hathaway story for this to be coming up.
Yeah, it's an end of an era.
And Greg Abel basically came out and said
that he was going to do pretty much the same thing
that Warren Buffett had done.
He's going to be a very hands-off manager.
There were not huge announcements
in changes of the equity portfolio.
So I'm not quite sure what people were disappointed in.
I mean, any financial company, especially insurance companies, they could report any
level of earnings they want based on the assumptions they had.
So the results themselves didn't really shout 5% down to me.
What really happened, and I think you put your finger exactly on it. The combination of the issues,
and the roiling of the property and casualty industry today,
along with their report over the weekend,
probably had a lot to do with it.
I apologize, I hogged the mic a lot during this one,
but it's a really interesting conversation,
smart people coming on.
Yeah, I don't,
I don't blame you. I had a good conversation with both of them on the live stream this past week,
which is really enjoyable. And I just continue to, you know, learn and listen to everything
that's happening with the markets. One thing which we talked about, which maybe I'll just
reintroduce for a second, Shelby, if you want to talk to it at all, was this on come of AI
into everything that's happening, you happening, how that could affect unemployment,
how that could all tie in with the new Fed. There were a lot of passionate thoughts on that topic.
Yeah, of course. At this point, we're just data-focused, and I'll try and keep it tight
for time. The labor market looks A-OK. Just over 4% unemployment feels uncomfortable because we have run very comfortably in terms of unemployment. It's been very low for several years, as long as we are discounting the blip in 2020.
Um, we are yet to see what is going to happen with employment.
Um, there was a lot of chit chat about the, uh, block layoffs last week.
It is pretty much consensus, um, that the company was bloated.
And I've, I've, that's also my own conclusion.
Everyone's free to form their own.
But one of the things that we all sort of agreed on just in chatting as a group is that
it's important to wait and see what everyone is going to do, right?
It's not mass layoffs when it's one company. Um, so let's wait and see what everyone is going to do, right? It's not mass layoffs when it's one company.
So let's wait and see.
And that's part of the approach that we have to have with what generative AI can do to employment.
So it'll probably be a bit of time before we'll be able to know for sure.
The additional part when it comes to what do we think the Fed might do about it?
So we know that the Fed's mandates are interest rates and unemployment. The thing is, though, different Fed chairs will
still have different types of data that they consider a little bit more valuable, different
views on how they're going to handle these situations in the market. One of the sort of
consensus points with Warsh is that he will be quite a bit more focused on the stock market, quite a bit more focused on corporate FOMC as compared to the Powell FOMC that we have right now.
So it may be a little bit more corporate focus. We might get a little bit more leeway, a bit more of a runway compared to a Europe that went ahead and regulated right away.
and regulated right away. I would expect that we'd probably move fast and break a few more things
and see just how far we can push with labor before we get a Fed or for that matter, a government
that wants to step in. So right now, things look comfortable. Of course, we don't know what the
tipping point is. I think right now we are exploring the ascent and trying to figure out
at what point the labor market starts to tip and then what we have to do about it.
It will be very interesting to see from the Fed perspective what the next couple of meetings look like with a lame duck.
I don't know what Powell's going to do here. We know who the next Fed chair is going to be.
I don't know what Powell's going to do here.
We know who the next Fed chair is going to be.
Market doesn't think he's going to cut rates at all.
I'm curious what the next couple months before Warsh comes in,
looks like here from the Fed's perspective.
My lean with Powell's style is that I don't think he's going to come in here
and try and make a big scene.
Maybe it is just the focus is elsewhere.
But I'm curious what you're thinking there.
I tend to agree with you.
He has not shown a propensity in terms of the job,
right? Just what it is that needs to be done to be heavily influenced by any sort of vendettas
or really anything outside of the data, right? And he seems to show a deep regard for the American people getting to
live comfortably and employed. And that's what we want out of any Fed chair. And I do think that
Kevin Warsh displays those same characteristics. And so I don't expect any sort of warpath hiking
or warpath cutting. I expect him to behave the way he has this entire time, which is data driven.
And if the data turns favorable, maybe we get a cut. The market is showing that they don't expect
such a thing. I'm not really expecting much either in terms of cuts anytime soon. But I would expect
him to behave the way that he has for the past several years. And that is, show me a reason why I should give this some
slack. And if he doesn't see one, then no slack to be given.
Yeah, that makes sense. That makes sense. We are a little over here in time. I have
a little more. I apologize. It's just been a fantastic conversation. I did want to make
sure we threw one more in there, though. And this is this one is over uh to you bill as people
are doing their research um yeah before you throw that in just a reminder for people that want to
check it out people are probably very familiar with motley fool and there's a ton of research
it's where people you know a variety of different analysts can publish information to it. And then Motley Fool Asset Management, separate company for all intents and purposes here.
You can go into fooletfs.com.
You can check out all of these different ETFs.
But TMFC, which we've talked about, is basically taking the top 100 largest and most liquid
U.S. companies that are recommended by those Motley Fool analysts and turn them into an ETF.
So that's where you can go see. And TMFC, just kind of pulling that up
for a moment right here.
Looks like over the past year,
got a little bit over 15% return
over the last five years has outperformed
both QQQ and SBY up 94% during that time period.
QQQ is up 90% and SPY obviously a little bit less than that. So
as Alpoor affirmed both them during that period, which is always something to look at. And then
the other one is TMFE, which is capital efficiency 100 index ETF driven by a exclusive formula that
their team has built. So those are the two main ones that we've kind of been talking about.
You can find them on any brokerage that you're on, but just wanted to point that out and where
you could look for more information on them. But yeahan if you wanted to go into that yeah it's kind
of where my question was going to go is as people are doing research into this um you know obviously
we talked about the website the prospectus fact sheet all that stuff is great but i'm curious from
from your perspective we have two fantastic weekly newsletters being written
weekly newsletters being written.
Research, kind of maybe investigate more of that edge
that you guys are trying to come to the market with.
I'm curious as people are doing their research into this,
where you would be starting.
So I think the greatest thing to understand about-
Can I was over to you, Bill?
Can you hear me? I'm sorry.
Yeah, yeah, Bill's talking.
I don't know if you lost him, Evan, for a second there.
But yeah, Bill, we got you.
Okay.
I am not hearing anything. It could be on my end.
It is on your end, Evan. We can hear him.
Okay. Yeah, everything got warbly. So anyway, I'll just try and say something interesting. And if it's just to me, that's fine.
You're all good. I can hear you. I can hear you. Don't worry.
So, you know, the thing to understand about the Fool ETFs is, you know, we have six passive ETFs and three actively managed ETFs.
The passively managed ones are all the very top of the funnel, is the, you know, is the research of the Motley Fool. pushback when you think of describing them as fully active versus fully passive as opposed
to thinking of them as being discretionary and systematic.
So for our systematic six funds, it's five large cap US funds, ETFs, and there's TMFC,
which is entirely cap-weighted. And then the other four, TMFE, which has an overlay of capital efficiency.
We have a momentum fund.
We have a value fund.
And we have a growth fund.
And all of those are just taking high-quality companies that are recommended by The Motley Fool with an overlay towards what it
is that you as an investor want to focus on.
And there are a lot of investors who are at this point who are a little bit nervous about
how large of a percentage of the S&P the largest companies are.
So in that case, I would suggest looking at something that's a little more value-driven,
that's got more breadth and less exposure
to the largest companies, to the largest technology companies.
But the way to think about the Motley Fool always is that we are business-focused investors.
We are looking to find the best companies.
We know that the market follows power law, and that means that a very few number of companies have
traditionally accounted for almost all of the gains in the market. And what we want to do is be
focused on those kinds of companies, and then give you the type of experience and the type of
volatility profile that will allow you to hold for the long term.
I think we got you back in here, Evan, as well on that.
But Bill, that definitely answered the question.
Appreciate it.
Shelby, any thoughts you'd want to add on to it?
No, I mean, I think that really summed it up well. My absolutely terrible pun for our products is getting active without breaking a sweat
because really that's what the sort of passive set does for you.
And again, I think Bill's description of it is systematic, is spot on when it comes to
our quote unquote, truly active or rather discretionary products.
Those tend to be a little bit more concentrated.
They are stocks hand chosen by our group of analysts and portfolio managers, and we follow
them religiously.
So they're going to be tighter, sometimes 30 to 50, depending on the portfolio.
But no matter what, it's a bottom up selection.
So the sort of process might be a little bit more quantitative for the passage.
