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STOCK MARKET TALK WITH WOLF & THE MONEY SHOW
Recorded: March 26, 2026 Duration: 0:53:55Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good afternoon, everyone. Happy Thursday. Welcome into another collab stream here between
Wolf Financial and The Money Show and their wonderful contributors that are joining us
on stream. Mike Larson was our lead here from The Money Show. He'll circle around the room,
give everybody their intros. Excited to be here. A lot happening in this market. We are
in a crazy sell-off today, especially after Trump said that he expected stocks to go lower.
Thanks, Trump. Appreciate that. And so there's a lot to talk about. So Mike, I'll turn it over to you to
get started. Yeah, absolutely. I found something that was green on my screen and then I looked
closely and it was oil. So there we are. Welcome to the joint money show, Wolf Financial Stock
Market Livestream. We've got a really great panel of experts here that are going to be talking about
this wild market environment and share their best strategies, best plays for navigating it. Yeah, a lot to cover, war, inflation, sector rotation. I mean, we've seen a month where
there's been a simultaneous sell-off in stocks, bonds, gold, kind of what smells or smacks of
delevering. So a wild environment and I want to get right to it, but I do first want to introduce
each of the panelists you're going to be hearing from. I'm also going to tell you about an
opportunity where you can learn from them live and in person
very soon in April. Everybody's going to kind of wave to the camera as I introduce them. We
first have Carly Garner, Senior Commodity Market Strategist and Broker at DeCarly Trading.
She's going to be talking about things like crude oil and gold volatility and tying it all together
trading strategies. We've got Craig O'Sullivan, a blockchain and
capital markets exec. He is going to be talking about AI and crypto strategies at that event that
I'll get to in a moment. So thanks for joining, Craig. We have Steve Suminski, options instructor
at Trading Academy. He is going to be talking about things like covered calls on steroids and
again, joining the trading strategies panel. So we've got Steve on options coverage.
And we have Darren Wagner, who's joining us from the farthest away, as far as I know,
for this panel. He's coming to us from Thailand. He's the founder and head portfolio manager at Morpheus Trading Group. And he's going to be talking about how smart traders can break their
rules and share a position sizing strategy that solves the discipline problem. Finally, Javier
Paz, founder of Rigger Rank. He's going to be
talking a little bit about AI-assisted crypto due diligence and also some AI and crypto strategies.
So again, that's the panel we have here. And of course, always happy to work with Gav from
Wolf Financial. We've worked with him on a number of Money Show events, podcasts,
X segments, you name it. So thanks to you as well. And before I jump into the discussion,
just as I mentioned, we're going to be hosting our 2026 Money Show Masters Symposium in Hollywood, Florida.
It's right around the corner, April 9th to 11th at the gorgeous Oceanfront Diplomat Beach
Resort.
And frankly, because we've seen so much demand for guidance in this market, we added a pre-show
event on Wednesday, April 8th.
It's entirely free.
Gav will pop the link up there.
You can get some information on what the pre-show is going to cover on April 8th. It's entirely free. Gavel, pop the link up there. You can get some information on what the
pre-show is going to cover on April 8th. You can get some information about the full show,
April 9th to 11th. We're going to be covering AI. We're going to be covering tech. We're going to
be covering crypto and trading strategies. So again, take a look at that link. If you're
interested in joining us, we're in Hollywood, Florida. So we got that preamble out of the way.
Let's dive right into this market discussion. I've got to ask, trading in this kind
of crazy volatility, how do you navigate it as a trader? What are some of the things you're
watching? And Carly, I want to start with you because you've had a lot to say about oil and
gold at some of our events. And clearly those commodities markets are really what's driving
the bus here. You're right. I mean, regardless of what you're trading, stocks, bonds, currencies,
I mean, regardless of what you're trading, stocks, bonds, currencies, you're actually just trading crude oil.
Crude oil is kind of driving the ship.
And I think it's going to be that way for the foreseeable future.
Volatility is intense.
I'd say in this type of environment, less is more.
You know, this is not the time to be swinging for the fence, in my opinion.
I think this is the time to preserve capital and try to take it easy because it's going to be a rough ride for the next couple of months, in my opinion. That said,
we have to make sure we don't get caught up in all the headlines. We should remember from 2022
when Russia invaded Ukraine, there were a lot of wild predictions, crude oil 200, so on and so
forth. And as time went on, we learned that all the
things that made crude oil go to 130 during that time worked itself out. And so I think we'll
probably be in a similar situation this time around. I'm not saying it's going to happen
overnight and it's going to be, like I said, rocky. But in the big picture, I think this is
probably just a temporary blip. Higher crude oil prices tend to be deflationary when we're in
an environment in which growth is questionable. And so I have a feeling that there could be a
rug pull on some of the risk assets and particularly crude oil as we get down the line
here in a couple of months. Got it. Thanks for that, Carly. Steve, I haven't had a chance to
get you on one of these before, so I want to pivot to you and maybe just briefly talk about what you're seeing in this market. And as an options focused
guy, you know, how do you handle setups, trade volatility in this kind of market?
One of the awesome things about being an options trader is you just can be ready for anything.
And so I've been going in either direction. And so I've got some things that kind of help me
stay centered. And you can diversify through time. You can do some real short-term stuff,
not necessarily zero DTE, but just some mean reversion things, puts in calls.
And then also horizontal spreads are the two main topics I'm going to be covering.
I actually have a couple of slides to something I can show you here.
I'm not sure if I'm sharing my screen or not. Yeah, let me share my entire screen and go here,
share that. And then there are some things I look at that are go-tos to help me
kind of make sense of things. And one of the first things is the big picture is kind of the seasonality. And if you look at the midterm election year, that's going to, it doesn't
look all that great. And midterm election years in the four-year cycle are the worst. Now we've
had three years in a row of about twice as good as what we normally get. And so I haven't been expecting much out of this.
Anyway, right.
And then the fear and greed index is now pushing extreme fear in the short run.
The six month outlook is looking more, much more bearish than usual.
Normally 31%, now 49%. And so things are, I don't think looking real great and that's fine.
You just play it the other way.
One of my indicators that is kind of a groundswell indicator is a moving average cross indicator.
And this is much faster reacting than the usual golden cross and death cross, which are really big lagging indicators.
lagging indicators. And so I use something a little bit more dynamic, but had you used what
And so I use something a little bit more dynamic.
I'm using, you would have seen that things were looking bad around March 5th. And that's when
this indicator, this moving average cross indicator, it's 20, 30, it's 10, 20, 30, where the 20 and 30
are EMAs. And so that kind of gives me sort of a heads up that maybe I want to start shading that way.
Another thing that my mentor taught me is this thing called the purple predictor, the unbalanced volume.
And so that's the purple jagged line.
And you can see that it's not very supportive of the SPY right here.
If there's any good news at all, it's starting to kind of chop a little bit. So it could go, you know, we're at the low end of the range. Anything could happen here. If there's any good news at all, it's starting to kind of chop a little bit. So it
could go, you know, we're at the low end of the range, anything could happen here. And so I kind
of use that as sort of a short term indicator as well. The mean reversion trades that I'm talking
about, here's an example, I bought a put yesterday on Tesla. And it's part of some rule based,
a rule based strategy that I'm going to be sharing at the show. And it's one of some rule-based, a rule-based strategy that I'm going to be sharing at the show.
And it's one of the simplest, most time-tested strategies.
One of my favorites that I've been using for decades, and my mentor used it for decades before me, before he taught it to me.
And so 21% gain in one day, not too bad.
And then the other thing I'll be showing you the horizontal spreads. So you can diversify through time. And you can you could do longer term, shorter terms, you can do leaps, you can do what I call guerrilla calendar spreads, which guerrilla, not the animal, but guerrilla like military tactic, where you get in quickly and get out quickly and just try to sell some nowadays with these Monday, Wednesday, Friday expiries and then daily expiries on the
And then the other thing I'll be showing would be horizontal spreads.
overall indexes. You can do a lot in really short timeframes selling, selling, selling premium.
And you caught me at a good time because it just so happens I closed out a winner today. That's
the green one. And then all the others are positive. All these other trades are positive.
I don't have a single loser in the portfolio. Plus'm up here to data and all the real eyes so thanks for having me
on today that was really good timing i appreciate that and you know so i think that's uh i'm gonna
leave it there and let somebody else have a chance to talk but happy to oblige i like when we get the
timing right um yeah so when you'll you'll turn off the screen sharing there and I'll go to you, Darren.
And thank you for joining us in quite a late hour there for you.
When you and I were talking in Vegas at a recent event, it was all about how investors can kind of, you know, focus on what's actually happening in front of them versus, you know, what they think should happen.
I know you've got a catchier slogan for that, but I want to know why is that advice so important right now?
you've got a catchier slogan for that, but I want to know why,
why is that advice so important right now?
What does somebody do to kind of keep their emotions in check when you have a
market like this, that just, again, it's ugly, you know?
And that's, that's a great question, Mike.
I think that one of the most important things is to keep proper position
sizing. You know, we teach,
we focus on trading psychology and really the four most dangerous emotions in
the market, fear,
greed, hope, and regret, typically those are amplified when people are taking too much risk,
right? So for example, if you're just buying however much your account allows for any one trade,
you know, then it's going to be very difficult to follow your plan, especially if the market
starts moving against you. So I would say the first thing is make sure that you have a fixed
position size.
Our position size is fixed to a percentage of the portfolio on every single trade.
So it doesn't really matter whether we're in an uptrend or downtrend.
If we stop out, we lose 1% typically of the account.
So I think that really removes a lot of the emotion and helps you to just kind of make it more systematic.
I would say also that before you go into a trade,
obviously, I mean, it goes without saying, but sometimes, you know, logic goes out the window when we get into a market like this. And obviously, keep your stop in place. But I would
definitely use physical stops. I mean, if you're the kind of person that normally in a bull market,
you're using a mental stop. Good luck with that right now, you know, because it's, especially
with the market being very whipsaw from day to day. Well, until recently, until we broke down below support now. But I think that
definitely fix your position size and make sure that you have each trade written out in advance
so that you're not just winging it based upon whatever news there is for the day.
Got it. Thanks, Darren. Craig, I want to pivot to you and touch on crypto at this point here and some of the developments we're seeing in digital assets. I mean, you know, you were on our panel last year in Miami, talked about some of the developments you saw back then. Can you talk a little bit about how the industry has changed, how trends have changed or have not in some respects about a year ago to now?
ago to now? Well, clearly the biggest difference in the past year is the price. So clearly
Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto markets have sold off dramatically since then. And
that all started in early October when Bitcoin hit a spike of a high of about 125,000 and now it's back below 70,000.
Certainly Bitcoin has kind of been a leading indicator here of the downtrend in the broader
markets.
So it's generally ahead of the game and that's partly due to the fact that it trades 24,
7, 365 whereas the broader markets, they only trade really five days a week, but
up until just the last year and change, markets were closing at 8 p.m. Eastern after trading
hours.
So now we've got them where obviously the broader indexes and the ETFs tied to those
as well as the mega cap stocks, you can trade those 24-5, so 24 hours a day for five days a week.
But on weekends, Bitcoin is still king when it comes to reacting to weekend news.
And obviously, we've seen more of that recently with the war, right?
And obviously, we've seen more of that recently with the war.
So but since the start of the war, Bitcoin and the crypto markets have held up relatively
well compared to the broader markets and also gold, right?
So last year, gold, precious metals, silver, they had their best year in decades.
Yeah.
And even at the start of this year.
But they've all pulled back significantly.
Gold's now in a bear market.
It's 20% down from its all time high just about a month and change ago.
Silver is down almost 50%.
But Bitcoin has held steady really since the onset of the war, which is going on almost
four weeks now.
So maybe it's because it obviously was hit early on and most of the selling pressure
has been alleviated.
But there may be other factors associated with that.
And obviously, we've seen some developments here on the regulatory front.
Obviously, we've seen some developments here on the regulatory front.
Just yesterday, for instance, with the stablecoin yield issue tied to the Clarity Act, there was actually some negative news developments related to that.
So Circle, which is the only publicly traded stablecoin, has taken a pretty big hit here in the past day and
change as a result of that.
So that's down over 20% just in like 36 hours.
But you know, it all comes down to are you a long term investor or are you short term
swing trader?
So if you're a long term investor, none of this stuff matters.
All you're doing is just dollar cost averaging into your assets. And quite frankly, at this
point, Bitcoin is a long term investment. It's not something you trade anymore. It's
just like the SPY or the QQQs or the diamonds, right? The major etfs tied to the broader industries um but for you know swing
trading you're going to do that on on your your smaller cap stocks and and obviously your
speculative crypto tokens and generally when it comes to those uh when you're crying you're buying
and when you're yelling you're selling right so Just keep it simple with that. Yeah, there you go.
Quickly, you got to take profits. All right. So that's the most basic advice and it's tried and true.
Got it. Javier, I want to go to you. Thank you for that, Craig. Javier, tell me a little bit
about what you're seeing in this market. And also, I know you're going to be talking about
incorporating AI and AI tools, essentially,
into your trading and so on, whether it's crypto or other assets.
So I'd love to hear maybe your insights on what you're seeing happen there and how the
technology is evolving for people.
Sure.
So in terms of the big picture, I would say that we have been waiting for a long time
for a break in the correlation
between crypto and equities.
So risk assets, diversification.
But that has not really happened.
There was in October a time when maybe you would hope that thing that it could happen.
It didn't.
And now we're back in a way in which Bitcoin and the rest of the market is trading very much like a higher beta, you know, to the S&P 500.
So what that means is, you know, for every unit of risk that you're taking in crypto, you're basically accepting, you know, a bigger potential loss than what you would see in
the S&P 500.
And the S&P 500, the SPY, basically, in my view, is down for another 10%, 12% correction
to test some resistance dating back a couple of years.
So with that in place, I think it's not a good particular moment good omen for
for crypto uh unless it it breaks out of um you know uh on a different footing let's say for
example a um a major country you know not el salvador not kazakhstan but you know a major
country it's what what to say you know we we're going into crypto with our reserves or something like that something dramatic like that unlikely but it could happen i guess and
that kind of announcement could break the uh the psyche if you will the the tight correlation
between uh bitcoin and the the wider market but short of that, I think, and no longer being able to rely on what
the current administration is doing in the US,
to be, even if it's pro crypto still,
as the Clarity Act shows,
that the administration may or may not be able
to get its way in terms of the the type of legislation that
comes out of congress these days so i think i think what we are seeing is a period in which you know
um the the over the short term if you if you can maybe buy a um inverse uh bitcoin etf that could be a good trade um if if but if if you um so so if you're
a short-term trader that that kind of high risk kind of possibility it's something that that you
could do but if you are rather more of a strategic buyer that wants to um you know just bide your time until it's is time to go i think um it could make sense to wait until
the uh smp is has to stabilize a bit and then um then you should you know see a bigger up upside
by buying crypto than than just by buying equities so um so that's that I think, the scenario for now. In terms of AI being incorporating, I've been a capital markets researcher for 25 years.
I work for banks on the sales side.
I also work for analysts firm for eight years, analyzing the market for institutions.
So, typically trading and trading technology, trading regulations, business trends.
And for the last four years, I was at Forbes.
I was a director of data and analytics.
I did on-chain investigations
and looked at the origin of tokens like BNB and others
that their founders, their creators said great things
about it, but sometimes what we will find is that
there's a backstory of how these projects really took off.
And it's not always what they claim.
So anyways, but so with crypto,
the thing that it taught me in my Forbes experience, it was basically that there is the myth and then there is a reality.
I've been in crypto for the last 10 years. I traded crypto when it was really under 10,000.
I used a Chinese exchange at the time because that's where the market was happening, you know, crypto was at that time.
the market was happening um you know the crypto was at that at that time and um but but here's
the thing um since over the list these last 10 years for example what we're seeing is the the
advent of ai and um and with that is the ability to magnify what a single person can do to do in terms of research.
So I've leveraged AI for the last nine months, built a company called Rigor Rank.
And basically it's allowed me to not only cover more ground, let's say, for example,
I want to know what the digital assets regulations in the US or in Brazil or in Mexico or in many other places.
I can actually program it to have it go in those directions and fetch the information that I need.
And something really useful that I think it's needed in the market today is having a a credible voice
um something that is not pro crypto or against crypto but just straight you know tell me what
what uh what the news tell us what you know analyze the market objectively or as objectively as you
can so i've leveraged AI also to basically
fetch not just the rosy stuff, but you know, like key
partnerships, for example, but also controversies. So things
that, you know, escape because there's such a TMI situation,
you know, too much information coming at us. Having leveraging
AI to basically filter a lot of the noise about a particular project or about a particular company is very useful.
So that's where I created profiles of 2,500 companies, the who's who of crypto.
And basically that's look at each of these companies and projects in an objective way.
So that's kind of what what we're doing
lately.
Perfect. I appreciate that, Javier. Thank you. Just a
reminder, if anybody joined this live stream late, there is a
link in the chat for our Hollywood event. I think Gav's
also got it on screen. Again, we added a pre show to this event
at the Diplomat Beach Resort in Hollywood, Florida. It's on
Wednesday, April 8. It is entirely free for that day. if you want to come listen to some of these speakers what they have to say about
the markets live uh you know who knows what's going to be going on by the time april 8th rolls
around just on my other screen i see the new headline that the deadline for the energy plant
destruction has been extended to april 6th so we're getting a little bit of move in the aftermarket
here on that news so in any event we'd love to see you there. Use that code that's in there and check out the program and join us. I want to pivot to you,
Gavin, actually ask you what you're seeing amongst, again, you're very wired into the
retail investor and trader and what they're saying on these streams and sort of market sentiment. So
I want to know what you're hearing out there as a result of what's been obviously a very tough month.
Definitely a tough month. I feel like I'm hearing less panic though
than I have in the past.
I think a lot of the retail investors
are remembering times like August a couple years ago,
you had April last year, right?
And they've seen basically situations
that involve a lot of hyperbole
and back and forth from Trump
where the market will see a 10, 20% dip
and then rip back to the upside
when there's a quick change, some type of negotiation, some type of piecing that happens.
So I do think that people are getting a little bit less panicked than they have in the past,
just from what I'm seeing, which is good. People are starting to go through a few different areas.
However, if you see another several percent drop, I could definitely see that escalating. I think
people are a little bit less panicked when it's 10 to 15 percent. But when all of their AI stocks and
all of their different plays that are very high beta start pulling down farther and farther,
I could see it causing a little bit of trouble. I think one thing right now that is keeping
spirits high is earnings have been really good when you look at the underlying data and the
numbers, especially in a lot of these companies that people are
gravitating towards, like Nvidia, right? They're just continuing to buoy the market. The numbers
look good. They're going up. They're spending. CapEx looks good. It's just a side situation
right now with, you know, Iran and oil and other pieces that seem to be coming in. I actually also
genuinely think that large majority of retail investors are not oil experts, commodity experts, right?
Straight of Hormuz experts.
And so this is a little bit removed from their area of expertise to even have the maybe necessary concern about.
So for me, I think that people are still moving ahead.
Maybe more of my audience is, as Craig referred to them, longer term investors, right?
So maybe they're looking at this saying, hey, this isn't something that affects us on the day to day. I think this is true for the stock
market. Crypto, slightly more desolate, been down a lot longer, a lot farther than the rest of the
stock market has. Buy and QQQ are holding up pretty fantastic until just recently. And I was
intrigued to hear, I think it was Javier who said it, you know, he expects another 10, 15% drop in that
area. That would certainly get people's attention. Yeah, crypto, I think in a little bit of a tougher
area. Certainly most of the crypto world, I think is lost a lot of hope. You have, you know, maybe
the top four or five right now in that area that people are still gravitating towards and making
their case for and seeing the long-term appreciation for. But that would be just my high level read on
the situation, Mike. Got it. No, appreciate that. Craig, I want to go to you again, talking about crypto and step back
a little bit from the price action in the coins and what's happening again in the industry. I
mean, there is this fight over the yield issue, but we are seeing again, a company like NASDAQ,
NYSE making more deals to try and bring sort of tokenized ETF and stock trading to the world and
adopt things that are normal in crypto in the traditional finance space. Do you think, how do
you see that unfolding, you know, from a regulatory, legislative or industry standpoint, you know,
over the next several months? Well, certainly, you know, President Trump during his campaign,
he ran on and appealed to the crypto market and audience and certainly it was one of
it was an effective strategy and one of the reasons why he ended up winning and for the most part his
administration is largely delivered when it comes to providing greater clarity and also more
favorable regulatory policies procedures and a broader environment for
the crypto industry. Obviously, the Clarity Act has been a bit of an issue lately, and
Coinbase has been leading the charge to provide a more favorable framework for the industry,
particularly when it comes to the stablecoin yield.
Obviously the banks have been pushing back against that,
but that really isn't a surprise
considering it certainly impacts their market
and ability to provide a service to their customers
that is beneficial to them.
And obviously stablecoin yields can challenge that.
So we'll see where that heads.
I mean, obviously, it's not looking optimistic for the crypto folks when it comes to that.
But that's not set in stone yet and there hasn't been a final
decision on that. But speaking of Coinbase, they just announced today that they partnered
with Better Mortgage to launch crypto backed home loans and Fannie Mae is going to accept
that. So that's obviously another big win for the industry and a major positive development.
Unfortunately, these types of news catalysts don't have an impact on price right now.
But these are, you know, from the Trump administration's perspective,
you know, promises made, promises kept when it comes to the industry.
Got it. Well, I'm going to go around the room in just a minute and get maybe some,
you know, top actionable ideas or tips for this market. But before I do, the AI topic is of so much interest. Javier, I want to go to you again and just ask, as somebody who's incorporated into
your, whether it's your trading systems, whether it's your longer term investing,
sort of portfolio research and so on, how do you separate the truth from sort of AI slop or AI hallucinations and so
on? How do you as an investor or trader know that what technology you're building into your system
is actually giving you the right information and is something that you can rely on?
Well, I think right now the answer is in seeing the use cases of the different applications. So if you look at, for example, some of the technology that, some of the AI technology
that Google is using or Google users are using is to, for silly stuff, you know, to create
images and stuff that, you know, may or may not have a monetary benefit for anyone. But on the other hand, you have people using Claude,
for example, Tropic, that for building real world kind of businesses, you have
the governments trying to leverage that technology as well. So you can see that there's more stickiness
to that kind of demand. And there is, you know, a certain value indication
in terms of so many major names going for the same entity, Entropic in this case, which is a private
company, not yet public. So I think that gives you a sense for what the value is. But there's also
niches that could be, you know, a particular AI provider that may be particularly good in a particular segment.
And then we would look for something like that.
I think what is also interesting is a combination of AI and robotics, something we'll hear a lot more going forward.
I think up until now, many people say, well, I'm going to lose my job to AI and others
you know, and try to plan their career. Let's say, for example, to become a plumber or a roof
installer because of that, you know, less likely that you will lose that battle. But
not too far down the road, you know, as China clearly proves, you're
going to see machines building buildings and you're going to see them, you know, laying
out wires and cutting things, right, just the right measurements and knowing, you know,
all these details through the merging of AI and robotics.
And that's where, you know, I think the sense one has to see not AI as a hype, but more like as something that is transforming along with the hardware that comes from robotics into, you know, truly AI doesn't kill you, robotics might, or the union of the two. But rather than
being afraid to those strengths, I think people should understand them and leverage them,
you know, and try to be the first, you know, in the room to understand how to bring the two
together or how to just do AI,
because it can take natural language.
So if you're an expert at particular subject matter,
you can actually build something really cool
in your area of expertise.
So small business owners, they can leverage AI
and they're not, we're just at the beginning of that.
So I think there is hype, but I think the market is going to adjust and gravitate towards the more sensible uses of AI.
We've come a long way from the days of iRobot and Will Smith back in whatever that was, 2004, I guess, when it comes to technology.
Early 2000s.
Yeah.
In any event, like I said said i always like to keep these
things actionable if i can so i do kind of want to go around the room and from each of you get
either you know your best as you see it long or short idea here maybe your most important tip if
you don't want to talk about specific names but just quickly want to remind you if you're watching
this if you're listening to an audio platform hollywood florida mms.com hollywood florida mms.com
has the details on the event
where you can see all of these people live. Carly, I guess you've been patient there. You
kicked things off at the beginning. What do you like? What don't you like? What's maybe a good
idea that somebody should be looking into here? Well, the most popular speculation right now is
crude oil, obviously. But the problem is crude oil is very difficult to trade at the moment.
If you're trading futures and you place a stop order, you're almost guaranteed to get hit,
even if you have a deep stop. And if you're buying options, buying calls, buying puts,
they're a fortune. So what we've kind of been guiding our clients is if you want to participate
in crude, if you want to speculate in crude, actually use a market that is related or at
least correlated. So for example, if you think crude oil prices
are going to roll over and start heading lower because we get some sort of resolution in the
Strait of Hormuz, you could buy yen calls. The yen has been beaten down pretty sharply on higher
oil prices because Japan is one of the biggest victim of higher energy prices coming out of
the strait. So yen calls are very, very cheap. So instead of spending five,
six, seven grand on a crude oil foot, you can consider buying a yen call with two or three
months, relatively close to the money for six to $800. So you can do something like that.
If you think core, I'm sorry, if you think crude oil is going higher, you might want to do something
like buy a call option in a commodity like corn. Corn and wheat have been following crude higher.
You're going to save yourself a lot of money and a lot of headache and probably sleep better at
night, but at least you have a foot in the door. Good. Appreciate that, Carly. I'd like the advice.
Steve, I'll go back to you. You highlighted a couple of things you saw recently. Is there
anything that maybe again for a slightly lower holding period you want to look at either from
the longer short side here? Yeah, I like what Carly just said and really gets back to trade the market in front of you.
Over the last month, oil energy has been the only sector that's been up. So I look for my sector. So
you have to ask, what does my portfolio need? And for most of us, we probably need more bearish
setups. And one bearish setup I was looking at beforehand was Walmart because of just how regular it is.
And so it's something that I think is easy to follow the natural swings as it adds lower.
And it's not so crazy and volatile that it's something that's a little easier to get in on.
And then Javier talked about inverse ETFs.
If you're not comfortable buying puts or playing something in the short side
look for those inverse etfs so that you could trade as a stock makes sense so yeah you guys
are doing great all right thanks steve darren uh again i guess same question to you whether there's
a longer short setup you like or if maybe just you know some some advice you'd really hammer home for
somebody trying to trade this market yeah absolutely um in fact i'd like to share my screen here sure okay um we talked about crypto and craig was mentioning earlier that uh for the most part
that uh crypto has been following you know i believe it was craig uh was was following equities
but um what i've noticed is that uh that's true it's been kind of a leading it's been kind of
leading the stock the equities market but what what I thought was interesting, though, is over the past few weeks, we've seen
a divergence where basically Bitcoin has been trying to set higher highs and higher lows,
while the S&P and NASDAQ have been setting lower highs and lower lows. So we are seeing a bit of
short-term divergence. Now, what you're looking at here is actually a weekly chart. So this is not a short
term chart. But this is a very interesting play that I think has a very good risk reward, in my
opinion. And that is the long term chart of Bitcoin. If you go back, I mean, obviously,
if you look at the shorter term, it's a much different picture. But if you're looking at a
longer term potential play, what I like here is what I call the triple convergence
of support. So we've got basically three main support areas that are converging right now on
Bitcoin. The first one is a 50% Fibonacci retracement. If we go from the lows of December
2022 up to the highs of October last year, we're currently testing right around that 50% retracement, which has got,
you know, obviously very pivotal level, which I think matters a lot to institutions as well
for kind of a long-term support level. We did undercut it for a couple of months, which is,
which is normal, but we also have support converging near that same area, right around
the 70,000 mark, which was this prior was this prior resistance band here back from March
all the way through August of 2024, that was prior highs. So that acted as resistance. And one of the
most basic tenets of technical analysis is once a price breaks out above resistance, that prior
resistance becomes the new support level. So we could expect that this is a significant support
area here. Again, undercut to run the stops is not unusual,
but we are trying to hold up right around this 70,000 area.
And it could be why we're seeing some short-term bullish divergence.
And then the third support level is we've got a long-term trend line
that has developed here off the lows of December 2022.
Now, there's only three touches, three anchor points. So it's
not a real long, I mean, it's not a real confirmed trend line, but we do have a trend line developing
here as well. We've bounced off of twice over the past few months. So obviously, if we look at the
shorter term chart, if I go down here to the daily chart, it's a different picture. You can see that
Bitcoin was consolidating near the lows for basically almost two months. But what I think is interesting here is take a look at this red line
here. This is the 50-day moving average. And if you take a look, you can see that the 50-day
moving average right now has been in play. We popped above it here. I'm going to lock up on
my chart here. Let me see. Okay. You can see we popped above that level uh a few weeks ago and
uh it's been kind of testing you know it's been kind of what we have here is a market that's in
the short term trying to bounce but there's a lot of pressure in the broad market well you can see
how it's trying to hold that 50-day ma now uh obviously uh we're not uh we're not into fighting
trends right so we are trend traders uh but i do think that based upon what the charts are showing me, that we could see a short
to intermediate term bounce in crypto up to about the 84,000 area would be the next target
on the short term basis.
And what I like about this really is just the risk reward of it.
Because even if you, for example, if somebody were to get in right around here, instead
of a tight stop, right, Tight stop just below the lows of about
a month ago. Or even if you want to go a little bit lower, you can go below the swing lows,
you know, all the way back on the weekly chart. I mean, you're looking at basically a three or
four to one risk reward ratio up until we see major resistance. So I think that's a pretty
solid play longer term. So that's what I'm keeping an eye on. Great. Thanks, Darren.
Craig or Javier, anything that you
really like from I guess the buy side here? I know, but you
know, you talked about inverse ETFs, you talked about some of
the weakness we've had in crypto for the last six months. But
I'm wondering, you know, for maybe the long term investors
are listening to this, is there anything particularly
attractive that you think, you know, like Darren said, we could
be at support or could be a nice play to add on the cheap
here?
Yeah, I think the the, you know, BITI and SBIT are, you know, basically the 1x and
the 2x short Bitcoin ETS would be vehicles in which I would enter, you know, a relatively small,
you know, tactical kind of trade if you want to be active trading you know just for psychology's sake not
necessarily huge conviction but i do think that if i were to somebody were to ask me like you are
today is it more likely to go down than up i would say yes more likely to to be uh you know because
of the the wider market that there's a lot of airspace you know um a lot of gravity pulling it down um
you know based on on macro fundamentals um so i think given that scenario is even if like
their own their own mentions you know there is a potential uh attractive risk reward on those three
convergences that you mentioned i i think even so, the gravity pool from the wider market,
you know, should it, you know, break, continue to decrease, it would be tough for any risk
asset like Bitcoin to, you know, to break out of that gravity pool.
So I think for that reason alone,
and the lack of certainty in terms of oil prices
and other, and gold, I think more likely than not,
things are heading south, but you should control,
like also Deron said, you know, the trade size.
It should be maybe one, 2% of also their onset you know the trade size it should be maybe one two
percent of your account you know having you know a good sense of stock losses and um you know and
and like steve mentioned you know an attractive reach a risk reward um you know in place
uh craig anything you want to add to that at all or yeah yeah so darren actually it's pretty
interesting you you brought up the bitcoin chart and your short-term price targets,
and I've been seeing the same thing.
So I expect over the coming weeks Bitcoin to get into that $80K to $85K range,
and then obviously some of the other tokens will see an even bigger upside
The other tokens will see an even bigger upside in that short-term period.
in that short-term period.
However, over the course of the year, I'm still pretty bearish on it and the broader
markets.
And if you look at Bitcoin's monthly chart dating back to 2017, momentum has been plummeting.
And I don't really see a recovery until it hits the lower boundary of this broadening
wedge pattern until around 40 kegs.
So that actually lines up, you know, with the typical bear market drawdowns of 80 plus percent that we've seen in other crypto winners.
crypto winners. So, you know, short-term relief, I'd be looking, you know, for these swing traders,
I'd be looking to sell into these rallies for sure, both on the broader stock market and when
it comes to the crypto markets. Yeah. Thanks, Craig. Gap, we're getting towards the tail end
of the time, and I want to give each person a little chance to chat about what they're going
to talk about in Hollywood. But just to you, anything that looks really interesting to you at this point,
either long or short? Definitely. I'm leaning. I'm still looking at a few long positions.
Three that I just really like right here. Really like Netflix. The setup on Netflix looks great
to me. They had a huge sell-off that started back in July of 2025. They went down roughly about 45%.
They've bounced back. They have really strong numbers. What I love here about Netflix is that
they are adding very high quality content. They had MLB opening day baseball was live watching
it on there. They had the Alex Honnold. They've added different fights, other pieces like that.
So they're really pulling in a user base of people to watch these things. And they're only going to
be adding more of these. It seems like they've really understood the
direction to be going. They cut out of that merger, which got them a, I think it was $2.5
billion fee that was paid to them. They now don't have to worry about all the debt that they were
going to take on to move forward with that. And so I really like Netflix here in a great place.
I actually bought more Netflix this morning. And out of many things in
my portfolio that are red, they are actually green. So I'm a fan of that in that area.
Also still very interested in the power thematic, which is getting hit a little bit here today,
but power and energy, names like Quantra and others like those are really very interesting
to me. I just look at POW, which is a POW, that's an ETF for
electrification super cycle. That's held up super well this year in comparison to a lot of names,
which are down 10, 12 plus percent. To me, that's an interesting area and it's up 22.5% that specific
ETF. But that whole industry has held up really nice. You've got POW Industries, Eaton, Quanta,
Hubble. Names like that are still really appealing to me, especially some of the stuff which is international as well that could fit into there like an SK Hynix and pieces like that.
And then the only other thing that I'd mentioned, and I don't know if I'm touching it just yet, but Meta to me is very appealing.
Meta had a huge drawdown today.
They're down 7.71%.
That's a massive amount of their market cap. They're at
their lowest point since April of 2025. That drawdown in April, they went all the way down
to 473. They're at 549 right now. So if this keeps going down and getting closer to those areas,
that's one that's fascinating to me. Yeah, that's the whole they're turning
Yeah, that's the whole they're turning into big tobacco kind of trade, right?
into big tobacco kind of trade, right? They're going to get sued into the next century.
They're going to get sued into the next century.
Yeah, anyways.
Hey, you never know.
Like I said, is it priced in or is it not?
Sometimes you got to step up and buy.
I hear you.
With the time we have left, I mean, Carly, I'm going to go to you again.
You kind of kicked us off here.
Your topic is officially, will crude oil and gold volatility bleed into other assets?
I think that we kind of know the
answer to that question, but I just want to maybe see if you can share a little bit more. Somebody
comes to your presentation in Hollywood, what are they going to pick up? What are a couple
pointers they'll have there? Yeah. So obviously assets are reacting to crude oil. So that
statement is true. But what I mean by that is I think that crude oil is breaking things. Anytime that crude oil increases this far this fast,
we tend to, stock markets tend to struggle. We actually generally get recessions. After the 2022
oil spike, we changed the definition of recession. So technically we didn't get going to recession,
but we did. So when you see crude oil spiking and then you see the dollar spiking higher, which most people don't have their eye on because they're too worried about crude oil and gold and all these other things, that's not an environment for growth and prosperity.
So I really worry that we've got quite a bit more selling in the indices.
I know under the surface there's been a lot of selling, but the S&P actually has held up very well.
surface, there's been a lot of selling, but the S&P actually has held up very well. And I think
that at some point, something's got to give with the S&P. And I think we kind of reprice quite a
bit lower. Got it. Got it. Thank you for that. Steve, I'm going to go to you. You've got the
interesting title, Covered Calls on Steroids. What do we need to know about what you can do
with covered calls in this market? Well, I cut my teeth on covered calls back in 2001,
a little bit of time ago,
silver anniversary of doing that.
But to do that on steroids, I want to use leverage
and also be able to go in either direction.
And so the idea of cash flowing
and lowering your cost basis
every time you bring in a credit,
especially as the volatility kicks up
and the
options get more expensive, sell into that a little bit. That's number one. Number two,
the other thing I'm doing is that mean reversing technique. It's like a four day
trade, like a put or a call trade, you can do it about four days, because markets don't just move
in a straight line, they usually take these little dips and swings. So this is how you could buy dips or sell rallies in a bearish environment.
Got it. Darren, you're talking about why smart traders break their rules. You know,
why do they do that then? That's a good question. You know, I think a lot of people,
especially when they're new, when I was a new trader, like almost 30 years ago,
I really underestimated the importance of understanding trading psychology
and understanding yourself. And I learned through the school of hard knocks. I lost a lot of money
in the beginning because I thought that if I just learned technical analysis, I just learned the
chart patterns. That's all I needed to know, right? And I found out the hard way that that's
not true. So we have kind of a different approach when we mentor traders. We focus on a psychology
first approach
basically learning to master yourself so that your inner me is not your enemy that's what we try to
avoid and basically uh the one of the reasons to answer your question the reason that smart
traders make bad mistakes is they let their emotions control them and that happens because
oftentimes they don't have a rule-based strategy right so when you don't have a rule-based strategy, right? So when you don't have a rule-based strategy, it's very easy to let your emotions control you because you're kind of, you know, just winging it as you go.
But if you're following a rule-based strategy, you have a trading plan.
For example, position sizing we mentioned earlier.
That's really key.
We're going to be talking about that in Hollywood, how a fixed position sizing formula can actually, how it's correlated to
the four deadly emotions, fear, greed, hope, and regret, and how just keeping proper position
sizing enables you to follow your plan and to trade what you see, not what you think. So that's
what we're going to be talking about there. And by the way, I forgot to mention if anybody wanted
to see that analysis I did on Bitcoin a little in more detail, I just did a video on it on our YouTube channel if anybody wants to check that out.
Perfect.
Looking forward to meeting everybody in Hollywood.
Appreciate it, Darren.
I know we've kind of touched on crypto strategies from both of you, Javier and Craig.
I know the other part of our panel is going to be focused on AI strategies.
Anything very briefly you want to add that maybe you're going to be talking about on
the AI front there?
Maybe with you first, Javier?
Yeah, sure.
One of the reasons why I am bullish long-term over crypto in general and AI is that institutions are coming on board,
evidenced by the recent announcement by NASDAQ and by DTCC as well,
and by DTCC as well, to tokenize securities
and making them available 24 seven.
For also the decision of MasterCard, for example,
to buy a stable coin technology infrastructure firm
and partnerships between Swift and Chainlink,
and to give an example.
So there's a lot of convergence between
traditional finance and and digital assets taking place it's selective but
that's where you need to do your due diligence and you need to know you know
is it hype or is it real you know is there actual key partnerships you know
there's been some vetting of the technology there is a use case for it
and and that's you know the fundamental research that is needed alongside the There's been some vetting of technology. There is a use case for it.
And that's the fundamental research that is needed alongside the technical analysis that we often hear and the pundits that are very loud.
So I think there is reason to be optimistic after all this noise that we see right now is a crypto bear market.
But having said that, the institutions are coming to play in their field. That is a sign of growth to come. And the fact that in a way,
NASDAQ and other exchanges, traditional regulated exchanges are going that way.
I think it's a sign that the you know the the market is uh you know the technology is getting
adopted and so we're going to see this convergence of um tokenization real world assets tokenized
you know not just stocks possibly other real estate uh assets as well and commodities and
and and uh we see uh convergence of derivatives markets on crypto as you know
we see the you know that has been primarily offshore that is getting brought in onshore
as well through the CME and other efforts and you know we see the traditional crypto
that is still high risk but and then the meme coins that are just, you know, trading trends.
So it's a very interesting convergence that we're experiencing and is, you know, is not
susceptible to the current, you know, highs and lows of the market.
So that's why I'm still optimistic on the market in general.
Anything very briefly you'd want to add, Craig is just sort of yeah like so a couple weeks ago the future proof conference was held here in miami
and it brought together thousands of folks in the investment management industry and i had a chance
to briefly interview tom lee of funstrad and and bitmine he's obviously the chairman of bitmine
which is the second largest digital asset treasury company after Michael Saylor's strategy.
I said, look, Tom, obviously this is a pretty nasty bear market.
How do you see things playing out?
He's like, look, this is my third crypto winner since 2017.
And I see it playing out the same way.
Sentiment turns negative and people will rage quit.
However, the best money is made in bear markets if you're a long-term investor.
So I think 2026 is going to be a rough year.
But looking past that, I'm definitely bullish on Bitcoin and the broader stock market.
Perfect.
Thank you so much, Craig.
To everybody who's watching, if you tuned in late, as a reminder, you're going to have a chance to see all of these speakers asking your questions
live at our event that's coming right around the corner. It's the 2026 Money Show Masters
Symposium in Hollywood, Florida. Gav dropped the link into the chat. He might have it on screen.
It's at the Diplomat Beach Resort, the main event, April 9th to 11th. And the pre-show,
which is 100% free to attend to check things out, is Wednesday, April 8th to 11th. And the pre-show, which is 100% free to attend to check things out,
is Wednesday, April 8th, HollywoodFloridaMMS.com. Everybody, Carly, Craig, Darren, Javier, Steve,
and Gab, thank you so much. I really appreciate you taking the time out. And everybody who watched,
thank you for joining us as well. Thank you, Mike. Thanks, Mike, for hosting us. Thank you,
everyone, for tuning in. Appreciate everyone that watched. This will turn into a recording as soon
as we close it out
so people can rewatch from the beginning
if there's anything that you want to check out.
Looking forward to the next one of these shows.
Take care, everybody.
Have a great rest of your Thursday.
I'll see you on the other side.
Bye-bye.
