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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Aug. 25, 2025 Duration: 1:27:19Space Recording
Full Transcription
Hello everybody. How are you guys doing? It is Evan Stock Market News behind the account.
Quick mute. Had to clear my throat there. But I hope you guys are all doing well. We are back
for a week of Stocks on Spaces NVIDIA Earnings Week. It is a very big week in the market. I mean,
we've heard a lot about all these capex all the companies are
spending to. We don't know how much of it is necessarily going to NVIDIA, but we know a lot
of it. My question with NVIDIA is around the China revenue. I think a lot of other stuff is
kind of pretty well stated so far. But NVIDIA is the kind of the big story of the week. I'd say
the big macro point of the week is going to be that PCE print on Friday.
There is a GDP revision.
There is an initial jobless claims.
Obviously, a lot of Fed presidents speaking.
But the real macro headline that I was looking at was a Friday morning one.
The NVIDIA earnings one is a Wednesday after the close.
The point there is maybe some of the big events we're waiting for and watching for are in
the second half of the week.
Google showing some nice relative strength today.
Tesla's also green.
NVIDIA showing some relative strength.
My Apple had some good little bit there, but it has crossed into a little red.
A little red.
AMD was one of the names that I noticed was showing a little bit of relative underperformance on the day.
But I'm sure there's a lot of other stuff under the hood.
I was kind of talking earlier with a couple of my, the trader investor friends, and there was
some excitement around this rate cut narrative and some of the sectors that might be impacted
on it, whether it's the banking industry, maybe it's regionals, maybe some other names that in
lower rate environments can, their concepts can thrive a little bit.
I'm not talking about those like nuclear ones that have been going,
but one that I maybe added a little bit to today is that kind of we'll call
the 10 X bucket. I don't know. Is a Rivian not saying they are going to get it
together, but if they can, I don't know.
So I've been here talking about that play a little bit,
obviously lifted the name on the spaces that kind of became a little,
a little bit of a spaces name, still acting pretty decent today, a little bit. Obviously, Lift is a name on the Spaces that kind of became a little bit of a Spaces name. Still
acting pretty decent today. A little relative
outperformance. But I'm going to stop
talking here. Let me also, I didn't talk about Spy
and QQQ. And for the record, Emp,
who is normally behind this account, our awesome
host, he had a kid
last week. So if you haven't said congrats
to him, go find that post. But
I'm sure he'll be back on here sooner
than he should be qqq down about
0.03 spy 0.22 not much movement there scott i see you are up here with us mr scott redler we
always appreciate you coming up on these mondays big fan of them how are you doing sir i'm doing
pretty good hopefully everyone's uh feeling good on this monday had a nice weekend last week of
the summer as you said there's definitely a bunch of things the market's kind of looking forward to.
You know, I did not know until someone talked about it earlier
that the stock market is closed a week from today on Monday for Labor Day.
End of summer.
I guess you've been busy, huh?
Yeah, I know we missed you last last week i know you were on vacation but
i'm curious i don't know how much you looked at i saw your post and so i know you were still
looking at the market but curious what you're seeing as you come back into it you really didn't
miss that much i mean you did but we're at the same point right well when you go on vacation
you try and um you know you try and do a little less so you're not looking at your phone so your
wife will not be upset at you considering you know we don't get that many trips away um you know i happened to be away on a decent
week when the market you know discounted those four or five days in a row so i wasn't really
caught in that little act of bleed um so it gave me a decent perspective to see what was going on
and i did actually tweet which i tried not to on wednesday thursday that i was buying the
the the 635 calls into powell just because i thought you know five down days into an event
where you know it's kind of discounted maybe there's a good option trade there because i didn't
think of you know i wasn't sure what would lead and what would go because know, really dovish Powell, obviously you have the IWM, um, uh, kind of
dovish does, does, you know, they sell tech to, to fund the IWM and the energy and this and that.
So anyway, so it was a pretty actually decent day on Friday to, you know, for those options,
it went from like three to 10, but then after that, you know, you have to figure out how do you,
how do you move forward actively? Um, you know, was it, forward actively? Was the market up too much?
Did it get over-emotional?
But there were things to kind of position in.
Some of the things that I tried to do worked.
Some aren't working.
I'm sure this weekend, everyone was kind of talking about what's the matter with Bitcoin.
Why did Bitcoin have that Sunday plunge?
But it kind of held that $ one ten, one eleven thousand area.
So I think one of the thoughts I have is like when you have a rotation, it's there's one thing if something's out of play.
And there's another thing when it turns into like a headwind, like if tech is out of play for the rotation to go into small caps and energy and some of those, that's fine.
Because just out of play, you can get some relative strength. You can get a stock like Google making an all-time high.
You can get something like a Tesla that had a nice pattern with decent volume that could
potentially outperform and go. But if it's a headwind, then it usually kind of takes down
everything. But as of right now, it feels like most things are kind of hanging out in line.
So I'm happy about it.
I came in with, actually with Tesla because I had a nice day on Friday.
And it just seemed like it was ready to go macro-wise.
And this morning, if you tuned into my 630 club, I was like, I think we could buy for
a red to green.
And if it gets above Friday's high of, you know, 340 and a quarter, you could probably
add.
And then that's approaching that next pivot, which is 349.
So we'll see how it handles that.
So at least it was something to do, something that made sense.
You know, Google also.
As far as other tech, I'm not exactly sure, you know, what if things are going to play
catch up or if things are, you know, worth being in.
So I'm kind of taking it slow. I did buy some Amazon calls today for this Friday and next
Friday, just in case tech hangs in there. And, you know, and then, you know, Google continues
and this and that and people looking around, they feel like the Amazon calls are not too
expensive. So there's something that I figured I could get involved and that I'm comfortable that
I've made good money with this year. Like you said, with Apple, I actually bought Apple this
morning also. I bought it when it was down a dollar and it went to $2.29-ish, sold some,
I'm holding some, I'm hoping it doesn't fail. You would think it could act a little bit better here.
As far as energy, I might have... Wait, Scott, quickly. quickly on apple i've been saying this today and i've been getting
nothing but but negative remarks back on it so i don't know but apple this is so historically
their iphone release event around september 8th september 9th if we look at history i think it
will be september 8th and this is generally the week that we get the invites going out i'm not
saying apple is going to come out of the event doing well,
but the hype into the event and sell off from the event
seems like the Apple playbook here and no one's really counting it in.
So I like that Apple play, but you can continue.
Sorry.
But I watch out for those invites going out this week.
A little bit more hype going into the event, hopefully.
Okay, well, I'm with you.
I played it.
It went to 235. It kind of just pulled in like everything else so i felt like
this morning was a decent you know low um a low barrier to enter you know a little low risk at
least and so far so good and i'm gonna try and stay with it i actually went to the short hills
mall on sunday because i need a new phone and um they it was i kind of kind of interesting they said
that i couldn't get the iPhone 16,
that they didn't have any.
And I'm like, what are you talking about?
Like, well, you know, they stopped making them
because there's going to be a big refresh.
I asked them about the foldable phone.
They're like, they're keeping it very, very quiet.
You know, I actually would love a foldable phone.
I think it would be great for me,
considering, you know, I do a lot of work on my phone
and I watch a lot of my shows on my phone
instead of on my, you know, 70s. The rumors are on my phone and I watch a lot of my shows on my phone instead of on my 70s.
The rumors are the rumors are it's coming next year.
Yeah. So hopefully at least there's something, you know, I guess for everyone where there's a little, you know, something that they can buy for Christmas.
Besides that, that's a little different, that has a little AI, etc.
But I hear you. I listen. I don't look that closely into it.
I'd love to see 226 hold and get a nice play out of it this week.
Every week there's something different to trade and go with.
That's what it seems like, right?
So I think Apple's worth it.
From 235 down to here, it makes sense.
And even if they sell the event, you have to go up to sell something.
So hopefully the buyback's on, people are away, and a flow tire.
That would be nice.
As far as, like I said, with Bitcoin before and crypto, I came in long, IBIT, ETHE, and
BMNR, because they closed pretty well on Friday.
You had Ethereum leading the way Friday, you had Bitcoin kind of lagging but held where it had to and bmnr you know that day one which is like the ethereum incubator type company
with peter thiel and and and tom um so today was a little complicated for me um i did um get out of
ibit even though it kind of did a red dog reversal today where ibit went below below 63 and came back above it so that one ten one to
ten thousand five hundred day did hold so sometimes crypto likes to do that
little washout so maybe that was the washout I'm kind of staying with
ethereum it's getting definitely a little bit and it's still it's still
above the eight day but it showed a little relative weakness today so I have
a little bit of a shorter leash on that.
And then, you know, there are things still to do.
I-R-E-N, which has been something that my alpha team loves.
And, you know, think about it. Crypto's down.
It's a Bitcoin miner type thing or a crypto miner, and it's up 8%.
So, you know, if crypto was going to be that bad, they would not be letting this stock do what it's doing.
So, you know, if crypto was going to be that bad, they would not be letting this stock do what it's doing.
And then just, you know, just to switch a few gears, you know, then you have like Energy, which we talked about two, three weeks ago about buying the XLE, the 86s and the 88s.
That's what I did with my power plays for my subscribers.
I've already sold a third.
I've already sold a third.
It's holding, it's hanging at this 8850.
It's holding, it's hanging at this 88.50.
So, you know, Energy's been able to buy verse support, but it hasn't gone through these little downtrends.
So it would be interesting to see if finally XLE can get above 88.5 this week.
I bought Oxy this morning, Occidental, just because there was a day one on Friday.
It was down 20, 30 cents.
I'm like, you know what, let me buy this for the 10th time because Buffett bought it and so far you know it's acting pretty well it's trying to take back its 200 day
so there are definitely active things to do if you're at your desk if you're not away between
now and labor day weekend and they you know if they rallied the video like they did today all
the way into wednesday it makes it harder you know the setup just won't be as good you know
for wednesday because it'll be that much more priced in that it's going to have to get above i'm just hoping that wednesday
doesn't derail my other situations that i'm in by you know it turning tech into a headwind i
wouldn't mind it just you know being fine but not you know playing a call spread with it because
that's what i usually do with something like NVIDIA.
But I have no FOMO in NVIDIA for this setup,
especially if it runs into it on Wednesday
and gives you the trade prior.
Yeah, those are some fair thoughts.
NVIDIA is always a weird one
because you get so much information about CapEx
and what the largest companies in the world are doing and which
are basically you can read through to nvidia's numbers so the market knows these numbers are
going to be strong and we've moved off into it i like the capex chart that that has been going
around shows sorry a lot of the mag 7 names uh and you can kind of see the spike from this last
quarter versus two it seems like nvidia is going to come in and have no problem printing good numbers.
The question mark is around that China revenue
and what's happening in that direction.
I see Monitib down below.
We'd love to get him up here to talk about that at some point.
But I don't know.
For me, the PCE is probably going to be the thing
that gives us the direction or some random Trump comments
more than NVIDIA earnings.
But I am definitely here to be wrong.
But that's all the way on Friday.
Today is Monday.
So we need to make some money between now and friday and see where the market is going into
that it was like a chop week is maybe what i just said there in my own way um
i do see we also have uh actually monotiv how you doing sir why don't we double click into the
the nvidia earnings i know we'll focus more on it. I'm sure. Don't worry. We'll talk about it plenty this week. But how are we feeling on the Monday heading into it?
How market moving are you expecting this to be?
to move the market. So let's break it up a little bit, right? Everything that we have
so far in terms of data from, you know, customers is showing that it's more of at least outside
China. I'm just talking outside China now. It's only limited by NVID Nvidia's ability to supply.
The demand is not an issue.
So that is basically what they control.
Basically they also have enough pricing power
to get the margins up.
The question is they restarted H20s
and then they stopped it again this week
or late last week.
So was there any H20 sales during the intervening period between the time it was stopped and
then restarted and then approved and then not approved?
And, you know, we've had so many tacos on this.
So that is going to be the primary question
that determines whether there's a one time charge or not,
right?
So if they sold anything at all,
if they were able to ship anything at all,
it's possible that some of what they wrote down last time,
the 5.5, 5.4 billion that they wrote down could be reversed.
And then there will be a new charge against, you know, what they had to stop production for now and all of the, you know, capacity that they have to pay for and all product partly used up in the you know partly
manufactured product or even once manufactured the whole way but i don't have sales now so so
there's this question of what is going to be the size of that one-time charge is
is the original charge enough now it just got rolled into this new set of inventory or
is that old inventory also not sold and now additional inventory so there's another
i don't know three four five billion of one-time charge so that's the biggest single item but
outside of that two things happen right if you don't have data center sales in china those are lower margin
items anyway so they were 50 margin before or lower than sorry not exactly lower than 50 margin
while the overall margin gross margin was you know mid 70s so if you don't have China sales at all,
you're probably going to have a bump in the margin
and then a one-time write-off for, you know,
whatever is unsold or useless now because of China.
So that's a positive.
And, you know, we know that, again,
I don't want to rehash this, but it's a demand issue,
not a, you know, it's a supply issue, not a demand issue.
So they are going to sell.
The real problem I have is I was fully expecting them to have a nice overall margin bounce outside of one-time charges and get close to that 80% within the within the blackwell cycle, which I guessed
was going to be next quarter. Now I'm not sure I think it will still come. And I think it will
still be this year. I'm not certain, you know, when it's going to land exactly because we have
so many things changing back and forth. But otherwise, all data points us, right?
Whether it was any of the recent reports this quarter
or any of the max sevens six, seven weeks ago,
confirming their CapEx guidance,
everything tells me that it should be solid numbers
from Nvidia minus the one-time item that we don't know what it's going to be with China.
My thought process would be, obviously, wait and see.
We'll let the numbers tell us.
But Jensen Huang has probably earned that they probably went,
are on the better end of what the possible outcomes could have been.
We shall see on Wednesday, though.
I appreciate you for that really in-depth rundown montage.
And by the way, as we're going across,
everyone should feel free to jump into the conversations.
If you guys have something you want to add in after,
just make sure you're not talking over people.
And this can flow pretty well.
And then also, when someone says something smart, enjoyable, whatever,
make sure you are giving them a follow, checking them out. Space is a great way to find new people
if you go in and use it correctly. The truth is you can unfollow them later if you don't like
their posts, but it's a good way to go and to find new people. So click in, check them out.
Yeah, let's keep it going around. Scott, I'd love to have you jump in on a lot of the
conversations as well. I don't know if there's anything that he said there that you thought was interesting
for me i've been very much also watching that bm and r play as well which you talked about
um for me seems like a better way to play ethereum has the staking in it but um
it is but it is and the only the only problem with with these is it's that um if you look in
there like the corporate covenants they want to to buy 5% of all of Ethereum out there.
So every time the stock gets going, they're going to do some kind of money raise.
And usually when the stock looks their best and a momentum guy like me is going in there and like, wow, close strong.
All of a sudden, boom, they announce another money raise and then you have to wait through it to eat it away.
What do you think of the strategy of them not really going into debt?
For me, that's something that I am a fan of compared to a sailor who's debt and equity.
You know what?
I'm sure as a trader, I would think the debt would make the trade a little bit easier for you than just straight dilution.
That's a little over my pig rate.
I'll just watch the action.
Like, I know, like, BMNR and, what was it,
ESPED were kind of like the two that were deemed the best ones for it.
Yeah.
But, like, you know, if you look at ESPED,
like, they announced money raises too quick,
and they didn't even get the stock going.
Whereas it feels like, you know,
Tom Lee and Peter know how to run a stock a little bit better
and, you know, keep the shorts on their heels.
And if they think there's going to be a money raise, rally the stock two more days before it type of thing.
So I'm more of a mechanics guy.
I played Mr. during that entire run a lot too.
Sometimes Mr. showed relative strength.
Before Bitcoin, it's almost like you knew Bitcoin was going to go in a day or two if they all of a sudden
were running Mr. before and you're like, why are they doing that?
And then all of a sudden Bitcoin had a big move.
And then all of a sudden, you know, Bitcoin's having a great day and then Mr.
is lower. You're like, why is that?
And the next day, you know, Bitcoin was lower.
So sometimes these type of names are little leading indicators for the actual crypto
itself um but you always want to kind of be in um the the equity portion of it when it's leading
the the crypto portion of it etc etc but anyway um ethereum today is trying to hold in there um i
think um you know bmnr is interesting but um if we want to break um the low from uh what was it
just the low from what was it not like last thursday i would have to get out of it just
because again technically i would think it holds 47 ish and goes sideways but if it doesn't then
it's just you know it can go anywhere it wants to go and for me i have a set of rules i'll have to
get out of it because again you just had a huge move in ethereum who knows
you know if ethereum is going to hold the 18 and 21 day especially if bitcoin held in there today
if bitcoin breaks 110 000 there's going to be some momentum leaving some of the you know some
some crypto in my opinion oh looks like we just had a couple people knocked off the stage there
interesting um you know spaces you ever know that's why the other link didn't work
space is having problems if you if there's any tickers or stocks anyone wants us to talk about
that purple four in the bottom right of your screen go in throw some comments there
and we will let the conversation whatever you guys want to talk about we can let it guide us but options Mike how are
you doing yeah I am doing well so like Oliver and Brian book up back up here it was a weird couple
seconds you never know on spaces what do you want to add to the conversation any stocks on watch for
you going forward this week yeah you know I'm a little bit taken aback by what happened with bonds today, which I
thought was kind of interesting because we had that huge rally on bonds on Friday and,
you know, we gave the entire move back and this morning we're back up a little bit off
the lows.
I'm not a bond guy and so I don't know.
But that to me is to the markets with saying maybe it's not quite so sure what kind of
rate cuts we're going to get in a couple of weeks.
This is the last week of summer. It's a a quiet week it is a slow melt up week we've gone nowhere today i think everybody kind of covered there were some names that
had some nice days i called google for a nice ride i took a couple trades on tesla amazon pushed up
above friday's highs for a bit nvidiaVIDIA, I think Scott mentioned running in. I thought the other interesting one was Palantir
with the two owners there dumping 110 plus million dollars
worth of shares came running back up again today on that down.
And it just shows you there's still just an appetite
for risk in this market and nothing's changed.
I find on weeks like this for me,
it's like I just try to find what has some momentum,
stick in it smaller, get out there, and just try to find little ways to stay involved in
the market make money and then we'll see where we're gonna go once we get back from the break
i think this is a tough week and the video is huge uh we talked about that a lot for lunchtime
meeting um but you have other names like marvel in there and snow and i think snow is interesting
uh dell is in there as well i'm pretty I'm pretty in snowflakes the one that I'm
I kind of know what's what a video is gonna give us I'm pretty interested in
snowflakes yeah I'm interested I still have a small position in that one I'm
in some Apple now there's a lot of call buying on today so I bought some Apple
calls out September and you know it tends to like to run into their phone
events so we'll see
And then just just a lot of little names that are running today I don't even know who this guy is but it's OPA D has been smothered and call buying all day and I didn't touch it
It's a four dollar name. It's having a big name here moving out not name this on my radar, but you know
Nice little move on something like that open continues to be strong. SoFi continues to be strong
A nice little move on something like that.
Open continues to be strong.
SoFi continues to be strong.
Markets giving trades, you just have to look for it.
Netflix had a beautiful day.
People were paying attention to Netflix, called that out early.
Had a nice 30-plus buck move back to the upside.
Things to do.
Netflix, I believe, acted pretty weird on Friday.
It was down when the rest of the market was ripping.
Yeah, I mean. It was down Friday the rest of the market was ripping yeah i
mean it was down friday the market was strong you don't want to look too much into one day
it's again it's the end of summer the big guys are mostly out in the hamptons they don't want
to be paying attention unless they have to and you know we have data this week but i think at
this point the fed is mostly looking beyond the data i don't't even think a hot GDP, a PCE number on Friday
would really matter all that much
to what's going to happen.
But we'll see.
Hey, Mike, have you heard through,
because talking about the TLTs and whatnot,
I've been starting to hear the chatter
of like insurance cut,
not like a bunch of cuts,
but they're going to do an insurance cut
in September kind of
because they feel like they have to
and then they go back to data dependence so you know it might just be like
to satisfy things that's why maybe you know rates aren't doing as much as they might have been doing
yeah i think that i think that's a great deal on it scott that could be exactly what's going on
here you know let's let's give them the cut because if we don't give the cut we're just
going to remain under some incredible pressure and let's then see what happens from there.
So that could be it.
Bitcoin got shellacked this weekend because the rumor is BlackRock sold $500 million worth
of it.
I didn't hear that.
But that's, you know, yeah, I guess they do it on Sunday while everyone was sleeping.
I think that's what they said over the weekend.
They dumped it.
Now, I haven't seen it verified from anybody, but that's what I heard was going around.
I'm like, OK.
But I mean, that was a wicked wake up when I woke up this morning with Bitcoin.
I'm like, what happened here?
It was actually going around on Sunday, like around two o'clock.
People saying what happened to Bitcoin.
Someone's like, oh, well, some whale in China sold it to buy Ethereum.
And then, you know, so everyone's everyone talks about what's happening with the price.
But the bottom line is if it does break one, you know, one 10, five ish,
and IBIT really gets a move below this, the low of today played with it,
then, you know, I wonder if it's going to lead some super growth lower
because that's what, you know, crypto is right now.
It's super growth.
It could.
And then you see a lot of these names
come with it and coin would have a rough time. Hood could come in with that too. If you're looking
for a pullback on Hood. Yeah. So it's, you know, Ethereum seemed to be one of the indicators,
the leading indicators of the last three weeks. So if all of a sudden it starts to lose the 8-21
day and Bitcoin loses the 100 day, then, you know, it might be tricky for anything to really stay up where maybe i should have stayed out in montauk
you know you didn't miss a fun week last week was not an easy week to navigate stocks it was
a lot of back and forth all day long you had to be quick on your heels
yeah no i get it i actually i had a few things to leave on vacation on monday i pretty much
super bombed my entire account got out of% of all my active stuff because it just felt wrong, which was good.
And then so I was in a little bit of a better spot for Thursday into Friday.
So now it's what's next?
What's next here?
So if you're here, you better just know what's going on.
And the worst thing is when you're sitting at your desk when everyone's away and you spend more money at your desk than you would have at Gurney's in Montauk.
Exactly.
Love it.
Let's bring Oliver into the conversation.
I tried to bring you in before.
We got hit by a little X problem there.
But you got any thoughts on the convo we're having here so far?
I have a question or two if we need to,
but I wonder if there is anything you want to add in.
X is giving us a day.
I am not hearing you, but I see you trying to unmute.
Why don't you go down and come back up,
and we'll give it another try.
God, I know you're a fan of Logical. You and him tend to have a good back and forth. Logical joining us up here.
How you doing, sir?
Hey, guys. How's it going? I actually really like the action today.
I know there might be some somewhat ugly candles and some names, but what do you expect a day like friday where we just had a huge
gap up and i mean it was so powerful all those candles and today when i look across the board i
see a lot of inside days i see lower volume than friday uh today it was a day that i was buying a
dip i was looking for um i wanted to increase my exposure to different themes. Specifically, I increased a lot of exposure to the housing theme.
Obviously, there could be still hiccups and pendulum swingings and back and forths and volatility, etc.
But look, when we got the 13Fs, you saw not just Buffett, but other super investors starting to load up the homebuilders.
other super investors starting to load up the home builders, home builders were like
Homebuilders were like a winning sector.
a winning sector.
You know, that kind of breadth expansion sector specifically, typically happens towards the
beginning of moves.
And these, a lot of these names are just coming off of their lows that they've been kind of
trying to bottom for months now.
And their valuations are really cheap.
So if we do actually start to get a turn of the cycle, then, you know, cyclicals are
where you want to be.
Obviously, we've been having IWM outperformance versus the SPY.
That's probably driven by that rate cut theme.
So, yeah, again, we had an extremely nice breadth expansion day on Friday.
That's kind of what I was looking for. And while, you know, SPY has held up and continue to make new highs, and most investors
are kind of like starting to feel, you know, a little bit cautious thinking, hey, look, like,
this market keeps chugging higher. But when you look below, when you look beneath the surface,
there were a lot of names actually breaking down over the last, I would say, month since mid-July.
I mean, look at, you know, there's a lot of sectors that are completely bombed out.
You can talk about software, and obviously there's like
AI-specific narratives there, but
these valuations are really cheap.
So there's still a ton of...
The software, I don't know. I know you play
in like the small and mid-cap range, but I know a lot
of decent-sized software
names are reporting earnings this week, which I
imagine would move a lot of
different parts of the sector over the couple days. It'll be an interesting week. I also saw a couple of conferences too,
a bunch of companies talking at tech conference. There was a Deutsche Bank one, there was a
Jeffries one. Yeah, it should be an active week for that part. Yeah, I mean, I'm long Okta,
and I took another long today in Sentinel one. I saw some calls coming from March. Now,
obviously, there's still a lot of narrative issues here but
i'm hoping that they're still just narrative issues but when a lot of these stocks are sitting
at lows um of the range and they've found a lot of support here and evaluations look good um you
got a catalyst coming up with earnings for several of these names like gitlab next week braze after
that um it's worth the swing to me and I prefer basket approaches. That way I can have a decent
allocation of software as a whole without like overweighting any single position. I mean, my size
is around like 4% for all these different names. And, you know, let's say worst case scenario,
we got a 20% gap down, which these valuations and this level feels, I don't know, I'm not going to
say unlikely, but I feel like my odds are pretty decent taking a bid here. You know, If I lose 20% on a 4% position, it's not the end of the world.
So that's kind of how I think about a lot of my allocation.
But yeah, I've been pushing along a lot.
So again, like I said, I like software.
I like housing.
I've been beefing up housing even more so.
I think it has less of a narrative problem, especially if we're getting the green light
with rates.
Yeah.
So home builders look good.
I think Builders First Source looks good.
There's a lot of names that look good. I think floor and decor F and D, uh, looks pretty damn good. And it's a high quality name. Uh, just last quarter, they saw their first, uh, year over
year, uh, same store sales growth since Q4 of 2022. There's a lot of different signs. And again,
like home Depot had a good report. So there's like good signs that the sector might be ready for its kind of you know upswing these are cyclical they
they go through cycles and we've been through a pretty brutal down cycle and i think the you know
yeah real estate has been like you know xlre has been showing signs of life so you know uh maybe
the worst is behind them and it's going to be supported by this kind of macro environment.
Again, like I was still not sure heading into Jackson Hole.
That was kind of felt like a binary catalyst.
But with, you know, J-PAL coming out and being, you know, dovish, obviously was pretty reassuring that, hey, maybe you do get the green light to keep going along these stocks and, you know, other super investors invested with you.
Logical.
Yeah, go ahead. these stocks and other super investors invested with you. Before I bring Scott in
to ask about that
homebuilders theme, there was a
conversation talking point right before this
around, will they do
an insurance cut? Are we pricing
in, hey, maybe only one cut
and then Pavel leaves us for the year?
That would obviously
pour a little cold water on the theme.
I don't know.
Tough to say. You I don't know. What are you kind of...
Yeah, I mean, tough to say.
You clearly don't believe that.
Yeah, I mean, tough to say,
but what I can say is I was in the camp of three months this year
and, you know, J-Pow is going to be the chairman till May
and his language was like very much taking off the emphasis on the inflation aspect of the equation.
And he's being he just sounded like he's he's pivoting and he's willing to play ball.
So I didn't see anything that was alarming in that.
I don't I don't feel that way.
I think that he actually truly changed his point of view based on the language I saw.
I mean, he basically said we expect like, you know, those tariff price increases.
I mean, because he'd otherwise be a hypocrite to not say they're transitory.
So, you know, you're going to lap those things in a year from now.
And then all of a sudden, you know, it was transitory.
So and if anything, tariffs are going to be more resession recessionary like more concerning to growth than they would be inflation because you get that one-time inflation but it's not like if
consumer wages don't keep up then all of a sudden you're going to get kind of more like deflationary
issues because there might be a district demand destruction so i do think that the you know he's
not wrong to assume that there could be slow downs in ums in the economy because of that not you know I don't
think you can take price without losing volumes so that's my take and look I'm just gonna pay
attention to the price action price action looks beautiful to me I think these things are ready to
kind of get going and obviously there's a lot of sectors that are going to benefit you know I talk
about bios as well before we pass to Scott you know bios is one that i keep talking about you know i think that's been looking really good
uh i had a buyout this morning uh albeit the premium was not as high as i'd like sc pharmaceuticals
up like i don't know 13 but up you know it's doubled since i was long not that long ago a few
months ago uh those results have been crazy i wish they held off and they needed to raise
capital so i think that's why they got the deal done but um i wish they they held off and stayed
on the public markets but it is what it is i just immediately reallocated that capital there's still
a lot of great assets trading for cheap so that's what i'm looking for i think you can still be
constructive on this market if you're willing to look outside of you know the same 50 names that
most people focus on but of course you know if you're more of a trader then you're looking for liquid leaders and
i understand that as well so it just depends on what your style is right i'll end it there
this is true it's all about your time frame and style like um to be honest logical i kind of um
i i like an inside day but i i hate when it's like a trappy inside day where you have a
huge move like you have on a friday and then you know it actually opens like in the bottom not not
in the top 25 of that candle but like in the in the middle area of the candle they don't give you
a way you know to add to it trade around it you know so to me that's that's a little bit harder
for for an active guy like you
look even in ethereum ethereum went out on the highs of the day looked like it was at all-time
highs and gave it gave you a little bit of give but not a whole lot now i'm looking at some of
the home builders where where you know a lot of people got very very very bullish and i'm sure
there were some new traders in there um actually the whole xhb looks fine it's in the top third of
the range and inside there you're right that that XHB looks fine. It's in the top third of the range, and inside there,
you're right, that candle looks decent today.
You know, that's not too extended.
XBI had a, you know, it's a little extended,
but you look at this candle today,
it's the size of the prior two,
almost engulfing the last five or six days of action,
which has shown a little bit of downside power.
But again, you know, we were talking about this at 85, it went to almost 90. So, but I'm just saying sometimes
when traders get trapped in a move that, you know, you're looking for a little bit of follow
through, or maybe if just down a little bit to go green, like Tesla, for instance, Tesla had a big
up day on Friday, it opened down two and change, and they let you buy it down two and change.
It's now up eight and change. That's beautiful. That's a great way to be able to manage a trade.
But when a stock closes really strong on a Friday and then opens down a third of it and gives you
no way out, it's just enough fun feeling for traders. By the way, Boeing just got a headline.
Apparently, Korea Air is ordering, talks to order 100 Boeing planes.
My bones been acting pretty.
Yeah, Scott, just to kind of respond to that, you know, again, I totally get you too.
Look, XBI is a piece of crap index.
So is the IWM, which is why I think if you're going to be playing around in the small caps
and the biotechs, you got to actually pick uh stocks
you can't just own the index it's just so crappy you can't be lazy like me and just go after the
indices and have a nice chart pattern you can when they when they set up but the thing is that that
those two things always punish uh people who chase uh especially after kind of like a few percent
moves it's extremely volatile uh and it's just choppy action constantly.
So that's why.
So I feel that.
You know, you mentioned Ethereum.
Look, when I was talking about, you know, today I'm looking at an inside day.
Again, I had an emphasis towards housing, like you said.
And you even, you know, looked at the candle and you feel that, you know, homebuilders look good.
That's where I was focusing my ads.
I'm the kind of person who's focusing on the
laggards that I think could finally start to get going. I've always been that way.
I just feel like they're less extended. You mentioned Ethereum has a nasty pullback today.
I mean, I agree with you. Ethereum, I'm up 300% on my December calls that I entered on July 9th
or something like that. I've trimmed probably half my contracts and I'm just sitting pretty those and right it's not something that i'm looking to really add unless we get a real
meaningful pullback and so you know and that's kind of where i was you know in my earlier kind
of chat i was saying you know um i understand you know there's you know traders that you know go
after these liquid leaders and because you know it makes sense uh from a trading perspective but for
me it's not it's not something i'm like loading i'm looking for things that have yet to make that move and so
um you know i don't want to you know like for example like lending club today looks great
magnite broke out of its range today magnite looks absolutely beautiful you should check that chart
out um is that mgni the one you said yep is it that one you gave a long time i want you gave like
six months ago that was a great call yeah yeah it was probably like 11 bucks now 25. Um, and you know,
cool props on that. That was, I think I was in it for earnings too.
That was a great earnings play. I think on, uh, May 8th.
That was beautiful.
And lending club, man. I mean, it's up, uh, it's up 1660 right now.
It's back to the highs of that range. Uh, yeah, I'll see you give that,
you give that also before the numbers.
Yeah. And Tara Dine looks great today too i mean you know so you know i've nailed a lot of those moves with
full-on calls in the position and um you know it's not kind of like after the fact i'm not trying to
like parade around but it's more like look those things are already working those are the things
that i'm not really adding to at this point like i picked those up before the move and i'm just
looking for what's the next thing to move and so i let the positions ride i've trimmed them up and you know that kind of thing
and you know i'll let them continue working and unless we get really big dips on these winners
like ethereum lending club magnite etc i'm just gonna let them keep working and in the meantime
i'm looking to allocate uh capital elsewhere um and so i think you know the home builders can be
that i think there's still a lot of opportunity in the biotechs for sure um something to like really think about on the bio side and look the index
is sitting at just below 90. it touched like 180 in 2021 now should it have reached those levels
probably not um and and the index has been you know reconstructed since and there's a lot of
like nuances but like this thing is still in a five-year bear market um so and the science has
only gotten better.
These companies have progressed their trials
for five years, you know what I mean?
And the commercial stage companies have had launches
and they're successful and they're growing in revenues,
but the prices are still down in the gutters.
So I think all it's gonna take is,
right now we have a lot of offsides.
You see all those charts about people shorting the Russell,
people shorting biotechs, it's at all timetime highs so i think once that positioning unwinds that's already enough
to get the the charts to repair a good amount and then you're talking about people who you know are
going from short to neutral short to flat we're not even talking about people going flat along so
um i think positioning is a big part in markets and i look for places where people are kind of
under allocated at this point yeah i. I think the, yeah,
the bios software home builders,
those look like great places with good value and you know,
definitely not overextended by any means.
Yeah. What about the XLE? The XLE, we just had a nice play from 85.
It's right back into like it's downtrend. It's holding here that, you know,
a lot of people talking about they need to refill some capacity.
That chart's been doing absolutely nothing
for two and a half, three years.
That's probably your kind of sector.
You know, you're probably right on that.
And I should spend more time on XLE and energy names.
I just feel so dumb when it comes to energy and oil.
And I have no clue what I'm doing there.
I just have been sticking to things
that I know a little bit more.
Energy sector is definitely so contingent upon the price of oil.
Not yet. Not a small cap bank guy either. You know, it could be, when you look at IDWM,
that's one of the big sectors. It could be an interesting thing there.
Yeah. Actually, speaking of, you know, obviously I talked about Lending Club. That is a small cap
bank and they've been crushing. They've been lending as well. But, you know, obviously I talked about Lending Club. That is a small cap bank and they've been crushing. They've been lending as well.
But, you know, today I picked up some LDI Loan Depot. I think that could end up benefiting from more mortgages as well as FOA, which specializes in reverse mortgages.
Dude, look at that chart of FOA.
It's pretty nuts, man.
So I like that one.
The stock is extremely cheap, trading just above tangible equity. They're growing earnings at a great rate. And again, a lot of
these are cyclicals and they're going to follow the housing cycle. And so if the housing cycle
is going to work, then these things are really going to work. And that's kind of what I'm looking
at. So FOA, it looks really, really nice.
And LDI is another one.
But, you know, obviously, they're small caps and they're really contingent on the cycle.
So you got to watch that play out.
So you got to watch the price action.
And if it invalidates, then, you know, or the macro changes, then you got to adjust accordingly.
But, I mean, they look good, man.
Scott, what do you think about that FOH arc?
Let me punch it up for a second.
I just got a little sidetracked.
What did you say, FOH?
FOA, sorry.
Let's see.
That looks good.
Definitely, you know, it's an inside day but this inside days and you know it's
holding top half of uh of friday you look at the um the actual longer term chart it's coming back
to prior you know prior high area like the 30s which it's just trending it's not overextended
yeah this this looks it looks good just came from 20 Yeah. I would say if I were framing this, as long as this holds
like 2570, it's building a nice little bull flag. And then all of a sudden, if it gets above 2958
in the next few sessions, you know, you could see higher highs.
And one more for you, LDI, because we're talking about, you know, smaller banks or lenders and
financials, and we're talking about the housing cycle, et cetera.
Look at LDI.
D as in dog.
Oh, as in the red dog?
LDI, here we go.
That looks good, too.
LDI, kind of a choppy, doji-type day, but still in the top end of Friday's candle, two days of volume um it's cheapy right it's a what is a two dollars and change um yep you know if i were to say you know for this
to continue you know to to be what i call special which is what a swing trade is for active guys
i would say as long as this holds like you know 175 you stay in it. And it seems like it's in the game to take out that 216,
which was from Friday.
So it looks pretty good also.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Again, these aren't like super, super high conviction names for me.
It's not like a lending club or a magnet or something like that.
It's more an idea that, you know, I have like a housing basket, right?
And so these kind of fit in that.
And then what I do is like, if I want to have a solid amount of,
you know, exposure to housing, then I'll just break it up into, you know, six names of fit in that. And then what I do is like, if I want to have a solid amount of, you know, exposure to housing,
then I'll just break it up into, you know, six names or something like that.
I'll put 4% in each or something like that and just, just kind of let it rip.
And, you know, if they fit the narrative, you know, I like the mortgage exposure.
Then I like the home builder exposure.
I like the, you know, whatever.
So there's like a few different things.
And I just create kind of like a, like a small ETF for myself.
There you go. Because you can, you know, you've been doing this a long time and you do your homework. So that's like a few different things and I just create kind of like a, like a small ETF for myself. There you go.
Cause you can,
you know,
you've been doing this a long time and you do your homework.
So that's great.
So you create your own basket of great stocks.
It's better than,
you know,
the ones that are done by the institutions.
Scott though,
I know we're coming up here at the 350 point,
which is normally when you head off to do that last 10 minute,
the new year group.
I wonder if there's anything you want to leave the people with.
Obviously you don't have to go.
We'd love to keep you here, but I know this is normally when you get to sign off.
No, no, I actually have to go back to the Alpha team,
which is where I spend most of my day.
They're like, where are you?
I'm like, go in.
They tune into your show.
They say it's great.
They love hearing everyone else, too, Options Mike and just all you guys.
We're logical, different perspective. It's good to hear a
different perspective than myself, who is kind of a momentum slash pure technical guy that had to
learn a little bit about fundamentals and macro over the course of the past three decades.
But it's not exactly my expertise. But anyway, I will say leaving you guys with this for this week again you know
nvidia is up um the numbers are on wednesday if it uh continues to be strong between now and
wednesday it makes the setup harder just because you know more is kind of priced in so we'll see
how that goes as far as tech you know i still think there's opportunities right now you have
um i do think i'm kind of watching amazon like i I, I feel like if Google can hang up here and if tech
doesn't turn into a headwind and it's just kind of lagging the rotation trade, I think
there's something that could, could, you know, a good opportunity for Amazon this Friday.
A magnificent 17 that's only up 38% on the five-year chart. That's obviously not for
a one week trade. That doesn't matter as much for the whatever,
but Amazon, an interesting one.
Yeah, I like it.
I feel like, you know, it's kind of like the Google narrative
where Google's cheap,
gets its hate times,
and finally, you know,
had a nice narrative around it,
and all of a sudden it's a 209.
There were some technical ways to play it.
I think we spoke about it like 195
when it was a really good money trade.
Got above that 188 and hit 202 fast that was a great great momentum type trade and since then it's been
choppy to the upside um there's no true setup like that in amazon right now but i feel like
if it holds here a little bit longer there will be a better setup as far as technically
um again we're trying to do apple but apple is definitely a little hesitant
but we'll see how that goes the rest of the week i would say make sure it holds 226 ish otherwise
you could get a little bleed there you know meta and microsoft were best in breed post earnings but
you know it seems like they're in a consolidation phase they were sold after the print and right now
they're just rebuilding so as long as they're not a headwind it's fun for other good setups
i do say i do think logical has you know a lot of great points and in this rebalance trade some
things have gone um already so now you have to be a little careful casing it um iwm you know
is having a down day if i were to say technically where i where you might want to look at it um
i would think this i would think it holds 230.50 if it gets below 230.50 ish you probably
don't want it that means the momentum's not there and it's going to be choppier but 230.50 is
probably a good spot for that xbi which had a big move from um literally 85 up until where did xbi
get to got to 92 i would think um this should not get below 87 ish you know gets below 87 and it's back into its choppy days.
So I don't like being in things that are in their choppy days.
Like when they're trading special, the dips are shallow.
You could buy a dip, trade it through a high, sell some momentum, and just manage it with higher lows and higher highs.
So you want to make sure that that continues if that's the style you're in.
And as of right now know those are hard to find
right here and um as far as crypto one last time uh again I really feel like if Bitcoin breaks this
one ten five it's going to bring down Ethereum and some other crypto which then could pressure
some high you know like Palantir that sometimes trades with it or Robinhood that sometimes trade
with it so look for make sure you know what's leading what and what their narrative is.
And again, this is kind of like a vacation week.
If you're not seeing it this week and you don't have any ace setups,
then I'd rather see you spend your money at a nice beach club than sitting at your desk.
Scott, we appreciate you.
Unfortunately, the market is closed next Monday, which is normally the Red Dog Mondays. Well, we can get a name for this, so maybe join us on Tuesday next week. But we appreciate you. Unfortunately, the market is closed next Monday, which is normally the Red Dog Mondays.
We can get a name for this,
so maybe join us on Tuesday next week,
but we appreciate you as always.
I think I'll be around next week.
Kids are going back to school,
and actually, that's my son's birthday.
He's turning 17.
He's taking his road test.
Wow.
Let's hope he passes.
Let's hope he passes.
Yes, yes.
So it's okay.
It's an acceptable day to miss,
but we appreciate you as always.
Like I was saying before,
if you haven't followed Scott,
if you haven't followed all the other amazing speakers up here
and you enjoy what they're saying,
you're definitely missing out.
Spaces are a great way to find new people in this app.
Scott, we appreciate you for joining us.
Scott, thanks for the chat as always, brother.
Yeah, good luck.
We got seven minutes to the close now.
There are not that many interesting earnings.
I know there's like a Heiko or something.
There are some interesting earnings this week.
We're looking forward to them, really, in video Wednesday, but a bunch of others.
Oliver, I want to bring you into the conversation spaces.
Elon Musk took away your speaking rates today.
Let's see if he gave him back.
Wow. I do not hear you. Honestly, I, oh, was there something there? Sorry again.
All right. Yeah. Sometimes, sometimes it's just, there's just nothing you can do, Oliver. We
appreciate you. I'm sorry we're having this day. If you want to try again, but sometimes it's just nothing you can do, Oliver. We appreciate you. I'm sorry we're having this day. If you want to try again, but sometimes this is not your day.
Wolfie, I want to bring you into the conversation.
Let's see.
Let's see.
Another person?
No, we got you.
I hear you.
How you doing, sir?
What's up?
Living the dream.
What's up?
How you guys doing?
I am doing well.
I am doing well.
By the way, I got a text.
By the way, I got a text.
Emp is saying it's your mic, Oliver.
I don't know if your external mic might be muted.
I was going to suggest if he's on a desktop to refresh the browser.
Sometimes he has the settings a certain way.
If he's not on desktop, kill the mic.
Use the speaker.
See if that changes anything.
If that's the case, you got to shut down and restart.
And if not, throw your phone out the window and buy a new apple iphone in two weeks
god bless america wolfie how you doing today i'm all right for the quick cue we got the quick uh
tech support here as well man of many talents um it's an interesting day in the market i've had
some conversations with different people i have some stocks i'm watching some questions we could
talk about we got've got Logical
Monitiv up here as well. StockSniper, I believe.
Shows him as a listener, but I think he's up here.
What's
catching your radar? Any part of the conversation that's
been interesting to you?
I mean, there's quite a bit you guys covered.
I'll start by saying that markets
don't usually give you long-time
sell tops, so take a look
at Ethereum. That's a double top
today it's got to reclaim it take it out but you know if not probably has like a little bit of a
little bit of a trap door if it doesn't kind of find it find its footing soon given how
bulled up everybody's been the last few weeks uh so i'd watch out for that but um you guys are
talking about housing rates etc etc by the way on ethereum i just
want to update it because while we were talking it moved down from like 4600 on the spaces down
to like 44. so we've had a we had a little little move lower on ethereum it's definitely testing
some lower levels yeah uh we do hear you all yeah there we go there it is yeah i figured i'd try to
get on the phone since you're talking crypto
and that's literally like the one thought i had go for it yeah i don't know man uh either elon
had me cursed or i don't know what happened apparently the stocks on spaces has like seven
different options for my microphone i don't know what's up with that but i literally did a call
right before so yeah you just hit i mean you just got creamed i was gonna ask uh whoever was
talking about eth if he's buying the dip today i don't know who that was but is that the case
should we be like pouring into it and that was wolfie and then my question would be should i
buy eth or should i buy bmnr wolfie so i i've been i've been out you know i've been trading
those things i've been out for the better part of a week now.
I don't like buying all-time highs that don't confirm.
That's just me.
And this thing trades technically, you know, I've been long.
I was long from May and thought that the ratio was set up a certain way.
Definitely got what I wanted out of it.
But I'd say look for that,
what is it? The 20 day at 4,300 and change, you know, that's basically your bull bear below there probably can get it at 4k. Um, so I, I don't, I don't like to, I don't like to step in front of
things like that. Uh, I I'm more of a proponent of, especially on a name like this that's moved as wild as it's moved,
I'm more of a proponent of buying the confirmation, not trying to take a shot and trying to knife catch it.
That's just me.
But I've not had interest in these.
Let me give you the exact date. I haven't had interest in these treasuries since the 13th of August
when BMNR got to that breakdown spot and failed.
So it's in a downtrend.
If you pull that up, pull SBET, same thing.
They're in downtrends.
You want to see them break out, actually break out of the downtrends
before you, in my opinion, before you of um you know sizable bet on them um
you know i i just i don't like the action so i don't know if oliver wants to piggyback off that
so i'll wait for a second i'll give you my quick two minute uh drill here before the bell um yeah
generally you know jc peretz who's on here lot, likes to say the most bullish thing that can happen as a price goes up, the most bearish thing that can happen as a price goes down. And I feel that that's even more true for cryptos, which are generally still, in my view, liquidity vehicles to some extent.
And so from that perspective, the most bearish thing that can happen in, you know, when I ask people, say, okay, what's the most bearish thing that could happen in Bitcoin?
It's not really like a government thing, which a lot of people say.
It's not really like a chain thing or a, you know, any technological thing.
It's really that early owners and early proponents of Bitcoin start selling.
So in theory, like on the, you know, biggest extreme example, the most bearish thing that could happen for Bitcoin is Satoshi Nakamoto's, you know, account starts selling. So in theory, like on the biggest extreme example, the most bearish thing
that could happen for Bitcoin is Satoshi Nakamoto's account starts selling or something. So when I see
the headlines over the weekend that you've got big early people, even though they have amassed
billions, tens of billions are dropping a couple billion, it's a pretty big deal. So that's kind of
what I'm watching. I'm obviously a little bit biased here because i've been short micro strategy and part of that was a pairs trade long bitcoin
short micro strategy and i've generally uh veered that a little bit more short master and taken off
some of that bitcoin long over the last couple weeks just because the charts just kept getting
weaker um the guy earlier made a good point about just seeing how by the way i heard i'm only saying in the background i heard the the bell ringing the market did just close there
keep going though sorry yeah no you're good we um the other thing i was gonna say is so i mean i
think everybody kind of knows the drill with coins right as um as uh the other guy mentioned red dog
i think is you know bitcoin starts getting hit and ethereum starts getting hit then watch the other
frothy stuff that's connected to that narrative uh which would be, you know, the Robin Hoods and whatnot.
Even though I feel that those are still generally more kind of stable than the cryptos, that logic path definitely holds if cryptos keep getting hit.
So that is certainly first and foremost on my radar is watching MicroStrategy, which is obviously the more levered version of Bitcoin now.
So the other thing I was just going to say real quick is stock-wise or macro-wise, I
guess first is people were asking about the kind of insurance cut.
Options Mike made a good point about bonds kind of reversing.
I'm not too concerned with the bond move, but I would just say the dollar move is pretty
interesting today.
The dollar now has a really interesting two days here where today's comeback in the dollar was
quite impressive. You'd think if the narrative about Powell abandoning the 2% target were true
and that he's about to go on some rate cut spree were true, the dollar would have a confirmation
move today, but instead it put in a really good fight the other direction. Still a smaller candle than yesterday. So yesterday's candle still engulfed like four
days. So I would say you probably generally veer on the side of dovishness interpreting the Powell
move, but the dollar bounce back today is quite significant. And you can basically draw an uptrend
going back to late June for that. So you're kind of getting this up channel in the dollar that's
actually held. And I think that's really important if you're going to do a macro analysis.
And then the last thing I'll say just real quick on stocks is as far as NVIDIA goes and the debate about the impact on the market, still, I think, massive impact.
Can't have any slippage there on any of their sales.
The chips chart generally looks pretty good, so I'm not too worried about it.
And then lastly, the equity stuff that I was watching today is generally in the foreign camp.
Wynn Resorts ripped, and I like watching Wynn because it's a fun intersection of U.S. and China with a big China emphasis.
Generally, most of those ex-U.S. charts still look pretty darn good.
I haven't heard a lot of love for some of the ex-U.S. stuff in this conversation today.
Maybe I missed it, but I would just say that a lot of the international markets look pretty strong still and outperforming on the year.
When popping 3.5% is usually a pretty good indicator for that group generally, and also
just kind of the discretionary trade in general. So I would say generally looks pretty good
from my standpoint, other than the Bitcoin drop here and Ethereum getting cream. So I guess
we just watch that for a couple of days and see if Master unwinds further. That's my three-minute
drill. Thanks, guys. I'm going to piggyback off of that. You kind of touched on a lot of things I
was going to get to. So yeah, I'm in the same camp on a lot of the crypto stuff that he said. But outside of that, I kind of see the Powell thing.
It gave a little bit for both people.
It was a little bit dovish, but not like too dovish.
I think people got a little excited and ahead of themselves.
I'm going to push back a little bit on something logical said.
Home Depot didn't have good earnings.
Home Depot missed their EPS for the second time in a row. They snapped a five-year streak of beating expectations
on Upside Surprise. What they did say was they were able to offset some of their pro services,
which is their high ticket stuff by people doing remodels. So think the the one thing that the the market kind of grabbed onto from the
report uh despite seeing declines um you know in foot traffic despite seeing declines in the upper
end stuff they were able to kind of like bridge the gap between that and then just like remodels
and smaller ticket items so they can you know and and those those smaller remodel tickets had a higher higher ticket average, which if you looked at Starbucks, for example, which is not the same industry, I understand that.
But if you look at Starbucks, it kind of said the same thing. It kind of said that, you know, their foot traffic was down, but the people that did come spent more money.
was down but the people that did come spent more money on there were a couple
other there were a couple other you know food industry earnings reports that kind
of echoed that same sentiment by the way though we'll see what I will say
pumpkin spice latte at Starbucks back this week this week I'm just saying
that's right yeah so no but the the thing is I think it kind of speaks to
this like weird environment that we're in where people are kind of, you know, they're optimistic about what's around the corner, you know, expecting rate cuts and expecting a cutting cycle.
So they kind of feel like they're at the seventh inning or eighth inning of whatever this difficult period is while trying to, you know, manage whatever's going on now.
trying to, you know, manage whatever's going on now.
So I think the market kind of the read through was for Home Depot that the 2026 outlook was reaffirmed.
So we were like, all right, let's look past this and move forward.
And I think, you know, just some of these, some of the comments from Powell that kind of, you know, people kind of take however they want to take is like this transitory, this transitory tariff situation. He was optimistic about it,
but it wasn't one way or the other. I think that was intentional.
And then whether or not we get the cuts, I think is,
is it's a little bit irrelevant to what I want to talk about, which I, you know,
some of the things that are, that are,
that are starting to turn or starting to press up are not the kinds of names that you want to see if inflation still is part of your dual mandate.
So take a look at some of these energy names.
Take a look at something like – I wrote down stats, so I'm just going to read it to you.
So take a look at stuff like Oy conical phillips chevron
devin so oxy conical phillips and uh devin all broke out of multi-year downtrends in the last
couple days the lightest of those of those conical 43 percent peak to trough devin at 53 percent uh
oxy's at 52 another one like apa was down peak Peak to Troth was down 70 some percent. They're
all breaking out of these downtrends and they're all kind of setting up for, you know, kind
of like a cyclical balance potentially. Take a look at some of these tanking stocks, these
shipping stocks, something like GLNG, GOLAR, 10-year highs. And just pull up that chart if you've got a second.
It's been in a consolidation pattern for the better part of a year
since December of 2024.
That's like an up and to the right setup,
again, pressing into a 10-year high.
Some of these types of names have started to outperform,
and then that doesn't even account for some of these you know gold
miners some of these gold names some of these precious metal names silver names etc those are
the types of names that like really outperformed on friday which kind of like caught my interest um
and then and then some of the agri names as well so i kind of think that if this you know and
oliver kind of touched on it this dollar move kind of holds, I don't really think.
Raymond asked, by the way, about BP,
I guess maybe just international energy and gas in general.
I mean, you want me to pull up a chart? I'm happy to. Yeah.
I was looking through my portfolio, Oliver's last comment for the record.
I am like 95% of my portfolio is US-based,
continual fee, but yeah.
Lisa Su with a form for, what's this?
Buy or sell?
Looks like it's like maybe selling for stuff with taxes,
but Lisa Su just sold some shares.
Yeah, BP broke out of a downtrend from April of 2024 as well.
So I think it was two weeks ago when, you know, some of the same panel.
Oh, sorry.
Another AMD headline.
Their chief accounting officer is leaving, accepted a position as chief financial officer at another company.
Oh, no.
I guess we'll see that headline soon and where they went.
That's one of the better reasons for an accounting officer leaving.
Yeah.
If they're going to go take a higher job, that's good.
So, you know, in the last time, you know, some, I think you guys had me, Sean, as well.
It was like the middle of August, somewhere around August 12th to 15th.
You know, we highlighted some of these energy names, some of these cyclicals that could
perform well.
Since then, you've had like chemicals double bottoms and actually start forming bases at those double bottoms.
Some of these oil names have performed really well.
I mentioned Valero specifically on that day.
My entry was August 12th-ish.
And the stock's up 13%, 14%.
Options are up nicely.
And these things are not, they broke out,
they came back, retested the breakout,
so now they're breaking out again.
And now the catch-up trade is in these downtrends.
So it's something I want to pay attention to,
especially in the back quarter of this year.
If the inflation side of things is still going to be held
to the same kind of accountability that
they've held in their dual mandate, then I think that that does open the door for that possibility
of here's your quarter point, go month by month, data point by data point. And then here we are
in December and we've only had that one cut and who knows what happens from there. So I think obviously PCE on Friday is going to be a big deal outside of
NVIDIA's earnings this week and some of the other earnings this week for that
case. And I think that's where, that's where you're going to, you know,
get the tell on some of that stuff. You know, beyond that, for me,
I've lined up quite a bit as of Friday.
I think Scott mentioned two 30 and a half um on uh iwm for me
it's 229 and a half split the baby call 230 right so as long as that 230 level give or take holds on
iwm it's fine uh it could it could possibly catch up uh but i do think by the middle of september
some of this like optimism in the trades have to actually be met with you know the middle of September, some of this optimism in the trades
have to actually be met with
the reality of the data and
reality of what's going to happen.
Right now, we're kind of getting the benefit of the doubt.
Trade it until then.
ETH below 4,400.
Yeah, that's what I just got there.
Getting hammered.
Close the market. Crypto!
24-hour markets are a lot more fun when it's going up,
but it's just one day.
Guys, I just don't think...
We're talking about ETH being back at 4,400.
It hit an all-time high yesterday.
It was like 2,500 a month ago.
I think we should zoom out a little.
Zoom out that bad boy looks like a strikeout. Unfortunately, when I zoom out, little. Zoom out that bad.
Unfortunately, when I zoom out, I still get my bearish divergence on Bitcoin, but I'm a broker record on that.
What up, KG?
What's going on, Ali? How you doing, bro?
I'm just sitting here, but I'm getting better.
Sorry, logical you were saying something. I just wanted to say one thing.
I think Bitcoin versus Ethereum, I own Ethereum only in the crypto space.
And I think it's important.
And we talked about this on a recent investing with the boys podcast, like samples of the
video yesterday, if you want to check out our page.
But I talked about why Ethereum makes a ton of sense.
Generally, it's the most useful cryptocurrency.
And it's going through a re-rating process.
And that's why I think if you look at the ETH BTC chart, it's just been holding up much
better. I think BTC, what we saw during the tariff tantrum earlier this year is like it
held up better than you expected for a risk asset. And it was kind of more starting to
get correlated with like a gold because it was like an anti-dollar holding more so than
a risk on asset, the way it was resilient but ethereum has different things that are working for it right now
and the main things are one what's the hottest ipo of the year undoubtedly it is circle and that's
because of the usdc um their their stable coin which is on the ethereum blockchain and then you
have the genius act you know you have you know these stable coins are you know top 15 holder of treasuries treasuries have been a very important topic all year so i think
you know there's going to be more use of usdc and um because it kind of feels like the winner of the
you know in terms of in the usa for stable coins um so there's going to be more network volume
for um ethereum alone just from that uh you think about long term potential more avenues for tokenization of real world assets.
That's going to happen on the Ethereum blockchain because it's the most established, potentially the most secure, has the most nodes.
And the layer twos that are being built on top of it, like Coinbase's base platform, that's going to just have more use cases at maybe corporate levels
as payment endpoints and stuff like that.
So yeah, I mean, I think the Ethereum network value is
it's just going to start shining from here.
And that's probably why we've seen it be so strong and hold up really well.
I'm going to push back on your pushback.
That could be true.
But from a short-term technical perspective, you have a double top. And if you pull up that ratio chart, it rejected right at a downtrend. So and it rejected that downtrend as Bitcoin was going down, not up. So you want to see it, you want to see it break out, I think, from this point.
a breakout i think from this point yeah that's fine like i'm i'm talking about ethereum becoming
like a legitimate asset versus like an investment versus trade no argument no argument about you
know having a utility no argument about one being digital gold no argument at all i think we're just
talking about you know trade the trade trade right now so yeah and when i was talking you know with
scott earlier about like today the nasty day in ethereum it's like dude it's you know it's something that has up a lot over the last
like month and a half so it's like it's not when i look around to find opportunities to add to i
have not been adding to ethereum at all if anything i've been i trimmed as recently as friday so you
know it's been an extremely strong trade so from i agree with you technicals and from a tactical
perspective definitely um you know something i ring the register on and not something that I've been adding back to.
I mean, if you saw mid 3000s, I think that'd be a great opportunity to add to.
But yeah, so from a short term technical trade perspective, agree.
From a longer term perspective, I'm actually, I feel like I'm going to regret some of the
trims that I've made.
That's just where I'm at right now.
Go back and look back in December.
This is actually the same exact chart pattern almost day for day.
Interesting.
I don't really care about Ethereum or Bitcoin or cryptos.
I think they're a good liquidity gauge, right?
Obviously, there is a relatively strong correlation between especially Bitcoin and especially Bitcoin and like tech stocks,
especially high beta tech and things of that nature. So I just use it as a gauge,
not so much as an asset. You guys know more about it than I do. I know a little bit about
a little bit, but I just look at it and say, if it's going up, if crypto is going up,
Solana and all that, it's going to be bullish for equities. If it's starting to go down
aggressively, if there's money being taken out of the market,
I think that also hits equities in some respects.
So that's how I just look at it as an indicator more than anything else.
I think it's pretty odd.
I just posted the chart that I was referencing at the top.
Go ahead, Sam.
That's all this one's safe.
All right.
I thought you were going to push back on the pushback on the pushback
on the other pushback too. I didn't want to interrupt that one but um
yeah no just messing around with you guys but now when i look at like the daily chart
especially for the queues i mean this is i don't know maybe we put down a lower high here
for the queues for spy looks like we pretty much much were on the brink of making a higher high
there. I think we I think on SPX, we were just like two points shy away from making a new all
time closing high. But the leaders continue to lead to. I mean, a lot of the Bitcoin miners were
up pretty nicely today. Irene was up in the news that they're expanding on their GPU clusters.
They're about 8 percent today, which is pretty insane considering how weak
crypto was in general i mean bmr i was doing a little calculations this weekend and i know tom
lee and the tom lee tracker kudos to the tom lee tracker account you guys should follow that one
but um they calculated nav around 40 bucks i had i actually had 51 so maybe i was wrong with the
shared dilution price but i don't know that's what it appeared like to me, especially if they have $8.8 billion in their balance
sheet as of this morning, I guess, since Ethereum has trended down in price throughout the day.
And they were trading at like $9.33 billion earlier this morning.
So I calculated even right now, if I look at the market cap of this, it's at 8.61.
So I guess that didn't really make sense to me.
That would technically mean they're trading below NAV.
But the way that they calculated or the way that Tom Lee quoted that calculation was that it was at $40 a share.
So then that puts it at about a 20% premium.
So that's 1.2 times NAV, which is pretty good compared to where MSTR was on average.
I was like around 1.6 times NAV.
Obviously, it's getting closer to NAV from here.
So, you know, obviously, there's a lot more things, definitely not financial advice.
I actually started the position in BMNR mostly because if it's trading close to NAV,
then that would actually put me in a much stronger place in terms of,
with leverage, a much stronger place in terms of going longer there,
which I'd wanted for quite some time.
But, you know, obviously, playing with money that I'm willing to lose here.
If I really wanted to buy crypto, then I would buy the hard assets themselves,
not so much a company that's going to be Ethereum treasury.
But, you know, I would think that if the market continues to be bullish,
then you're going to start seeing some more upside in this one.
But much more for a longer term trade versus like a short term trade.
I mean, I do agree.
The chart doesn't look great at all for bitcoin in general um for ethereum made a new all-time high yesterday
and then that complete pullback actually now that we're talking right now bitcoin is close to
breaking 110k which hasn't seen since early july so interesting to see what happens with that one
we're definitely trading below the uh 50 day and the 100 and the 20 day for bitcoin for ethereum we are trading still at the 20 days yeah at the 20 day it was also pretty
interesting too because when i was looking at the queues i think it just closed right below the 90
ma on the daily but it did close right on the 20 the 20 day so that'd be very interesting to see how that's going to react.
S&P 500 is above all those moving averages.
So it'll be interesting to see what's happened with that.
Well, it's actually really interesting with this divergence trade with China and the US.
So I was originally expecting, OK, so as we saw last year, China was ripping while the
US was trading down the flat, especially during September.
I thought, OK, so maybe we're going to see that on Friday. was ripping while the u.s was trading down the flat especially during september i thought okay
so maybe we're going to see that on friday but we got everything rallying on friday the follow-through
today was that china was basically ripping i think that pin duo duo the the on the earnings call the
ceo basically said that they're not going to be able to sustain their profitability that they
reported this earnings so they took a seven they took a nine percent pop after hours or technically it was uh after hours in china um and early morning for us
and now just faded that and pin duo duo basically closed up about a percent it was down as much as
three percent pre-market so that was pretty interesting seeing that basically alibaba
or ticker several baba just like gave away all of its gains during the day it was like around 127 bucks I think it made its high around um no that's not right that's been to a duel uh sorry one sec
uh Alibaba its high was around 127 so it faded all those gains kweb basically faded all the
gains today so that was just really interesting to see that that dynamic play when play but you
know obviously China is a much smaller market cap in terms of the u.s market so
you could definitely get some quick money moving that thing into both directions but at the same time i mean i was on the camp that we were ready for a pullback last week obviously didn't happen
uh wasn't short anything so my face didn't get ripped off in fact i appreciated more on it
than anything but you know the sentiment was kind of poor and then we just went and uh did a stick save on the uh moving averages for the queues um sp500 made close to new all-time highs and now
we're pretty much just giving up all those gains today with the exception of a few leaders say so
the way that i look at that is i don't know maybe we're moving sideways i don't want to speculate
too much we have like the third super bowl of the entire year on wednesday and that's gonna be pretty
interesting uh seeing what's gonna happen in the video i i still think it's gonna be an option
seller event as it had been for quite some time having swings up and down everyone try to
decrypt exactly what everyone is saying on their earnings call i think there's gonna be so much
coverage of that thing that there really is no point on digging into those earnings um so i'll
see for it after but yet again i my my my um semi-connector play is not on
nvidia or amd it is on proxy plays including components and suppliers like i've been long
estera lab since like the mid double digits and the thing is at 174 bucks today which is doing
pretty good air test systems is actually up 35 36 today i don't know if you guys talked about that
one they had to follow
an order for one of their hyperscalers who's their main client i'm not sure who the hyperscaler is
they don't mention who it is but it's definitely one of the big hyperscalers in the u.s uh increased
the amount of orders for them for their for their lot of their units uh largest volume that air test
systems has had since back in october 2024 so definitely a lot of buying going on there and
it was actually really interesting because it closed below the 20 day yesterday or on friday
and just opened way above it and it was just strength the whole day so very interesting to
see that move core weave is back in the low 90s nebius did hold on to a lot of its gains actually
i posted something yesterday regarding nebius group and i to a lot of its gains actually i posted something yesterday regarding
nebius group and i think it got misinterpreted by a lot of people the post did really well i'm not
going to complain about that but they had their annual shareholder meeting on friday or friday
but they posted the press release on saturday but they got approval to basically buy back up to 20
of their stock right that doesn't mean they're going to do it it just means they got approval to basically buy back up to 20% of their stock, right?
That doesn't mean they're going to do it.
It just means they got approval to do it.
So they could not buy back anything.
But also, they got approval to also cancel out a bunch of shares
that they had bought back previously,
which would, of course, appreciate the price for shareholder equity.
So there's like two things going on here.
Personally, it is a cash burning business
especially we think about data center expansion operations i don't think buying back stock is the
best move to do right now i think they may have a lot more return on equity by reinvesting it back
into their business so we'll see what happens with that but i think this is very early in its game
i think people who hold this stock for a long period of time will probably find a lot more
appreciation than the short-term swings options like i, I don't know what's going to happen with
the stock, but the IV is really high. I've owned this thing. So Stock Talk has owned this thing
since like the mid-20s. I'm continuing to hold onto it, looking to add onto pullbacks, but I did
add a little bit to Lemonade today, ticker symbol LMND, which is basically the insurance disruptor.
They had phenomenal earnings. They're up like 35% after the earnings, and they continue riding up to near $60. So I
am a buyer on this pullback, just added a little bit to that. But overall, I have like about 5%
cash in my portfolio. I'm not looking to deploy anything en masse. I don't know if you want to
call it FOMO or anything, but I did add to a few positions on Friday, mostly because I feel like the narrative changed as far as the Fed goes. I agree with
Wolfie, though. It is perceived as dovish. They're pretty much going to start cutting in September
as the market's pricing in. Just don't know if it's going to be like two rate cuts in September.
I don't think it's going to be two rate cuts, but I do think we're going to have almost three
rate cuts this year, which would put it in a pretty good place and be very dovish compared to the odds of what the CME, Fed Funds futures are pricing
right now. But I am quite bullish on the market through the end of the year. What's going to
happen between now and the end of the year? I don't know. Tom Lee isn't exactly thinking it's
going to be straight up from here. I kind of agree with him. I don't think that it's going
to be a straight up move. I think we need to have some shakeout, but that doesn't mean it's
actually going to happen. I'm still staying long-term, bullish, short-term. I don't know.
It would be nice to get a bit of a politic to buy things cheaper, but you can't always get what you
want, right? Let's try and talk from here. Can you hear me yes yeah well I was having some problems over
there I do want to bring Ali into the conversation Ali I know you've been sitting up here for a while
I don't know if you have any thoughts on what we've been talking about here yeah no I agree
at that that the crypto conversation was interesting and by the way Bitcoin is at its lowest since July
9th so a six- low there, which is interesting.
And obviously Ethereum is an old coin
that we've been looking at for a while now,
but it just feels like there's a lot of momentum in crypto
and how that's extending into stable coins
and a lot of the other sort of crypto adjacent trades
obviously continues to be a topic of conversation.
But in terms of today though, I think overall it was like, you know, kind be a topic of conversation. But in terms of today,
though, I think overall, it was like, you know, kind of a boring day overall in markets. I think
you have some interesting individual stories, but it just seems like, one, we're in the lead up to
Labor Day. So everything's a little bit slow. But also, we have the NVIDIA reports coming out on Wednesday, PCE out on Friday, and markets sort of in this digestion period post-Jackson Hole, and we saw that significant increase in markets.
And yeah, I thought the commentary about Jerome Powell being, you know, a little dovish, but not too dovish, I agree with.
And for me, what stuck out is the comments that he made about tariffs.
He basically implied that he thinks tariffs could be a one-time price increase. It could be transitory.
And I thought that was a little bit of a shift from what he said earlier this year when he talked about tariffs potentially leading to more sustained inflation over time.
So I think that might be what markets were kind of hanging their
hat on. And obviously the labor market story is one that we continue to talk about. And I always
have this question about the unemployment rate, whether or not we can keep relying on that as a
reliable indicator of economic growth when we have the supply side of labor as well as the demand
side of labor both falling at the same time. We have very little job creation at this point.
And the immigration policies, that means a lot less labor force participation.
And if that keeps the unemployment rate low, is that a good thing in the interim?
Or does that signal that maybe the economy or hide the fact that the economy is a little bit weaker than we initially thought?
So I have all that on my mind. or hide the fact that the economy is a little bit weaker than we initially thought.
So I have all that on my mind.
And obviously, with NVIDIA earnings, expectations are continuously so high.
China is continuously a big focus. But a lot of the analysts I was speaking with today say that the demand from hyperscalers
is actually a lot more important than the China story.
And if we saw a pullback in that demand, which we haven't yet, and we heard from them all earnings season
that they're doubling down a lot of that demand,
that that would be the thing
that would really hammer the stock.
But we're just not seeing that right now.
But just overall,
looking at the equal weighted index,
however, five day period or so,
that's been outpacing the headline S&P index
has been something on my
radar as we continue to track this rotation story. And obviously tech has driven a lot of the gains
that we've seen in this market. And a question I've been posing is, you know, we have this
rotation, small caps have been rallying, we see home builders getting into the mix, but can this
market sustain these record highs without big tech being the leader?
Because even though I know market rotation's healthy,
sometimes if that comes at the cost of tech,
we're not necessarily seeing that in the gains.
And when I ask these questions,
a lot of strategies tell me to look out
into future earnings.
What are markets pricing in ahead?
And there is slightly less decline
in contributions coming from tech.
And you are seeing those expectations rise in some other sectors like utilities.
You obviously have deregulation for financials coming down the pipeline, steepening yield curve.
Healthcare, I think, is the one lagger that needs to participate a little bit more.
But tech doesn't need to be the leader.
I just, I wonder when that moment will be
when we can still get record highs when tech is lagging.
Because I just think right now,
it's just makes up such a big part of this market.
And if you get a bad NVIDIA report,
that is going to drag down the overall index.
So just a few overarching things on my mind and
and the macro story and we'll we'll see how things play out later this week
ali i was going to ask you what your thoughts on uh jackson hall speech was i mean i know there's a
lot of there's a lot of ways to look at it.
I thought it was dovish. I didn't think it was like, oh my goodness, buy everything dovish. But
I think it really changes the framework at which the Fed looks at the unemployment situation right
now, as well as inflation. What are your thoughts on that? Yeah, I thought it was,
I thought it was dovish for sure. I was surprised at how dovish Powell was just considering,
I feel like in previous times that we've heard from him, he has teetered the line a little bit
and he has been a little more neutral. But for him to come out and have that line, like significant uncertainty about where these policies
will settle, what the lasting impact will be on the economy.
And now we need to think about adjusting our policies
