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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: March 23, 2026 Duration: 1:48:22Space Recording
Full Transcription
All right.
All right. What is up, everybody everybody how are you guys doing we got a nice full week back
to stocks and spaces i'm excited i'm just double checking for noise and stuff we got mike coming
up here what's up mike how we doing we got a mic check sounds good on that end something good on
this end i am doing well it has been an absolutely crazy
couple weeks here uh but we're we're back in starting to settle in tomorrow will be a better
day there was a celebration last night uh we you know i don't drink i really don't drink much but
i did last night and we also went to the casino which also didn't go as bad as it normally does. And it was a good time.
But today, I felt better.
No plans to do anything like this again for any time in the near future.
Not my thing.
But it was a fantastic night.
Coming back into the market, though, was a tough morning. We got a, I saw, I was up at 7 a.m.
I saw the Trump post about Iran, and the market seemed to like that.
He was talking that maybe he said, according to him, that he talked with Iranian leadership,
which, you know, we don't even know what the definition of Iranian leadership necessarily
is at this point.
That seems to be OK there.
Sorry, I saw my drop off.
That headline around 7 a.m. drove us higher a good bit.
Now, there's been some back and forth throughout the day.
We'll let everyone else kind of funnel in here and give their thoughts.
I feel like during active war and active battle and all that stuff,
you aren't necessarily expecting to get real answers.
Fog of War is real.
But, yeah, that headline drove us earlier.
I had trouble getting up and posted it.
I was a little late on it.
Options Mike, it's not letting me bring you up here.
So you might want to try something different.
Disconnect, come back up.
What's up, Brian?
Hey, how's it going?
Doing well.
Doing well.
I am excited to be back on Stocks on Spaces.
I was just going through this whole
diatribe about how i maybe the the trump post this morning back and forth on the iran area
did they talk did they not market seems to think they did we'll see on what ends up happening out
of that one there's a couple apple stories today uh apple was sending out invites for their wwdc
events uh and a couple other stuff going on.
But I am excited to finally be able to be back in front of the desk, in front of the computer just here.
We don't have really many earnings on these ones.
This may be a little bit of a slower week on the known event side.
But I am excited for this conversation here.
Cool. Yeah, it was great to talk to Gab.
I hadn't talked to him for a while.
Yeah, how was that?
How did Gab do?
How did Gab do?
He was, you know what?
He was a little rusty at the first,
but then he got right back in the groove.
There we go.
Okay.
He just got married, right?
Yes, he did.
So that will screw your head up, trust me. So he was a little bit flustered maybe yeah yeah a little bit well that's why
i'm feeling a little uh interesting today we'll say uh tomorrow will be a better day i'll be
excited to be back but uh yeah lost the money in the casino but i had a good time i took out
200 to start i went down all the way to 20 went, went up to $500, and then ended up at like $80, $100.
And like, honestly, it was just a good time.
But let's get into it.
I see Scott coming in.
I see options Mike up here joining in.
It is a green day in the stock market.
I posted a tweet this morning, a meme this morning that I felt like really encapsulated.
It dangerously showed what my portfolio looked like.
But you look at
my year to date i'm still red this is a i don't know if this is a trusted bounce or something like
that but uh yeah it's i'm posting the meme up in the nest above it felt scarily accurate to what
my portfolio was what's up scott how you doing oh that was that you doing all right how you doing
yeah yeah it was me i'm sorry i was just following up on what you said in the intro about my iPhone, whatever it's called.
Are you there?
Yeah, yeah. Can you hear?
Yeah, I can hear you, Scott.
Yeah, I'm sorry. Before Scott goes, I was just following up on what you said at the beginning about whether the market believes that they did talk or they didn't talk.
Honestly, I think that's going to be determined in the last hour
because you've got to think about it like this.
Who wants to take overnight risk if they didn't talk?
Who wants to take overwrite risk if they did?
So I think we'll see.
I think the last hour, it's not going to be definitive,
but it's going to give us a little hint about whether the market believes they talked.
In any case, on Friday, I started to tell my subscribers this is probably a good spot to put some money to work, at least a little bit.
We were right at the 200 EMA on a lot of names on the indexes.
So I think this is a great bounce.
It stopped us from going down.
That's the first step for a a bottom to start but like we have a
lot more that this market has to prove before we know if this is a a short-term bottom or be a
short-term or sorry a longer-term bottom or if this is just what it looks like so far which is
a counter trend rally that may have to be tested again sorry go ahead scott didn't mean to step on
your entrance no no i think you said it perfectly well.
Like I kind of did the same thing.
I have that blood in the street account, which is like a product that I created out of nowhere.
Pretty much my wife's long-term account that she couldn't contribute to.
And I put it to work 18 times, now 19 times.
And right around 320, I sent out a note and a tweet saying tier one's going in because it has to get to close.
I think 7%-ish is a good spot to start.
It only goes into two.
It goes actually, I've only put it to work in a sequence down three times.
It never went to four times.
It almost did in the pandemic, meaning like three tiers.
That means we fell over 20% to 30%.
So I did tier one, but to be true, full disclosure, I started buying the spies
around 652 and I got stopped out at 648. I had too many of them. And I was pretty damn nauseous
when I saw the news come out at like 515 on Friday, I was in Miami for my friend's birthday.
And I was like, I can't believe I just stopped out of that. I bought a third of my wife's
loan term account, but didn't hold my swing spies so i kind of felt like crap
all weekend and then when i woke up when i saw the futures last night and i saw you know the
pullback i mean just on the rhetoric so this morning i got lucky i was doing the 6 30 club
if any of you were watching and i saw a flutter literally a flutter happened at 6 40 i'm like
something just came out i'm like the spies
are 643 um i got stopped out at 648 i did the right thing i'm buying them here i bought them
there i started to do more of the 630 club before i could turn around we were like 655 and i pretty
much sold it all the way up to 660 just to show you like how crazy this tape is i went from feeling
like a jerk to like wow you know, I did a good job
there. But that just shows you different timeframes. My wife's blood in the street account.
I'm not getting paid in March, you know, or the first quarter. It's something that goes to work
during a bearish active sequence that waits patiently. And finally, you know, we've spoken
two, three weeks ago and we were like the market kind of technically broken. Sectors are down 30
to 40 percent. percent stocks feel like crap
s&p is only down three percent you can't even buy that yet so finally friday kind of felt like that
so now the question is um what's the reality of the situation in the mid-east and how long is it
going to drag out even if there's supposedly a ceasefire will there be um lone wolves and will
there be terrorist attack here or there you know know, I think no matter what, we were going to bounce towards 661 to 663, whether this happened or not.
Just the way this world is and the way the market trades, unfortunately, it happened in a day.
Usually you get a low, you get like a three-day sequence where you could play it into an area where the over-sick bounce happens.
And the oscillator goes from minus 60 to neutral.
And right now, the oscillator is minus 14 from where it was on Friday.
So things just happen so fast.
And I guess you almost have to be able to trade pre-market, post-market during the day
if you feel like you're missing something, almost like when trading crypto or the S&P
futures.
So I think the whole landscape is changing as
far as time frames on the market and when you have to be your busiest or when you have to pull back
it used to be a lot easier you know you knew the first 20 minutes was going to be where you have a
little volatility you take advantage of over emotion and then by like 10 45 you know what
low is and get a trend now it's like like sometimes that happens at 6 in the morning.
Sometimes it happens at 715.
It just happens at different times.
So you just have to be either really active or smaller and trust areas.
What do you think of that extending over the weekend now?
I mean, it's not here yet, but 24-7 does feel like it's something that's coming.
It feels like it's coming this year, like really actively across these brokers.
So I don't know.
Do you like your weekends separately far away from this?
Or do you think maybe they'll just be
one or two times a day that are popular then?
I don't know.
You know, I know when I traded crypto back in 2020
and it was really active
and I put a lot of good till cancel orders in
and I put a lot of limit orders in.
Sometimes you just put things in at the level you think works or you think where it stops triggers and where it can go. And I made a lot
of money waking up the next day like, wow, I got filled with Bitcoin here and it's already here.
I could just sell it. So maybe there will be a way that you do your work and you go for levels.
And if you think it's going to break it and reclaim it and all these kind of things, you just
put what you can handle and maybe do that while you're not really a hundred percent looking, but I don't think we're close to that time. And that'll be,
I don't know if it's a six months or a year or a year and a half. I don't even know what my
involvement will be then. But I do know that, you know, we are, Musk says no one's going to be
working in like a bunch of years, but I guess the stock market participants have to work 24 hours a
day. You know, I thought, I thought we were heading towards only being open four days a week
instead of going 24 hours over seven, but that's out of our control.
But for now, let's not start talking extremes.
Let's talk this week.
I think that the market did a decent job holding up.
There's been banter both ways where the president says
they're closed to a deal, it's going to happen. I can't promise it, but it's going to talk it up. And
then you have Iran and Israel saying there's no deal and who knows. And overall, you know,
they faded the market a bit. To me, this kind of feels like a bear market bound. Some of the
harshest ones happened during a bear market. You know, the Israel, you you know this war is not the only thing that was worrying the market prior to it um and you know i don't think that um that fraud is low is going to be though
i don't see many things that can like really carry us like the memory names that were the strongest
are down today so they're not going after the strong names so they don't believe they could
break out anytime soon you see a stock like google only up $1.80. It's not like people are in a rush there.
Meta's broken as hell. Apple did a whole lot of nothing. Amazon, the high of the day, was put in in the first hour and a half. There aren't many stocks that are above even Friday's high,
and they forced the future. So to me, this has the ingredients of if you felt like you weren't
long enough coming in and you're mad that you missed something, you probably didn't miss much today.
There'll be some packing and filling and you'll have another chance.
But having that multiple timeframes where you take some pressure off is key.
By not being long and going with the blood in the street account or having a 401k also besides a trading account and an active account it kind of just helps you
deal with uh the pressure of thinking that you know you missed something and then there's that
fine line again like i'm telling you i was all weekend along i'm like i can't believe i sold
the spies i was i was pretty damn perfect i was buying 650 250 thinking we'd go to 650
and obviously you saw that there was a selling balance we went to like 645 or 644 on friday
um but anyway let it go the moral of that story is let it go um and if you if you did not catch
today the way you thought you should have you did nothing wrong was hard to be super duper long
and hopefully you were at least not so short because we were so oversold and i know we were
below the 200 day and it felt like um functionallyally we were kind of broken and we should go lower.
But usually when you feel the worst,
that means your time for an oversold bounce.
So they make it a little harder on the shorts and then there'll be areas to
maybe short that bounce and, and, and,
and get back down there at another point.
Do you have any thoughts on some of the,
I'm sure it's kind of different across different parts of the market, although this weakness is kind of being seen across.
I don't know if you're thinking, we normally talk a lot of like large caps, the apples,
the Amazons of the world on here.
Sometimes we get to go towards like the individual names that I know some of the smaller midcap
names that some of the guys who come on here are trading.
I'm just curious if there's any like more, as you look across different parts of the
market, if there's areas of interest for you more than some others.
It's hard because you have a lot of reversion to the mean type trades.
You had that broken bounce in software, and then all of a sudden Microsoft got back down to those lows
where some of the software didn't.
So you want to look at maybe the other stronger software names if you feel like that IGV put that low in four to six weeks ago.
There's nothing really showing me anything in mega cap tech land that I'm like, wow, you know, I'm missing a huge swing trade opportunity here.
They're all range bound.
It's hard to tell if Google that acted the best will play downside catch up.
It's up the least today.
Tesla's up one of the most because it was down the most.
And is that news from the weekend the reason why?
Like Tesla's above Friday's high, but then you have like a Google that's not even close.
You know, NVIDIA still feels like a broken bounce, right?
Like it broke 179, held 171.
And today, it also made its high in the first part of the day.
of the day and it's just been sitting here since it's going to be hard for that to get back above
And it's just been sitting here since.
It's going to be hard for that to get back above 179.
179 you know but at least you could watch above 179 means you know maybe markets are rebuilding
better but if it starts to fade and break 171 you know that's going to be leading tech lower and
this was just a broken bounce so it's really going to be about what we think is the most important
this week to to figure out on whether or not uh bounce attempt builds and then tries to go into other
areas of the resistance or where today's high of 660, 262 is the high of the week. And it's hard
to tell. It's hard to go home super short and it's hard to go super long. And I think with the
size of these ranges, if you trade for a living, there's no reason. If you don't and you're looking for intermediate and longer term, then you have to say, hey, the time to have done that is really probably Friday, not today.
Right now, the spies are back at, what, 658.12.
Actually, 662 is 5% off eyes.
Right now, you're like 6% off eyes.
Is that really a bargain?
If this environment remains volatile and choppy to
the downside, probably not. And as far as the mid cap and small caps, I just, you know, I would,
I think, you know, Palantir stands out a little bit today because it had a mid-level base and
never went to, you know, back to the lows of the multiple months where the spies and the queues did.
But then you're like, okay, what if the war is closer to an end
than dragging on?
Is Palantir up because they signed a contract with the military
where, you know, is it a wartime stock?
And if we're done with war, it goes lower,
and then money goes to the Amazons?
It's just there's a lot more questions than answers still,
so there's no reason to, you you know do things more than a trade that
would make you feel uncomfortable options mike you got any thoughts you want to throw in questions
we want uh one throw into the mix yeah i mean i you know i don't really know what to expect here
i think when that news first broke this morning it kind of felt like one of the another one of those taco moments and then you know within minutes a ram was denying
it and they did not it's so hard i started thinking they were you know it was just too much
and then every other country everybody's stepping in then trump went on this long like was talking
to everybody all morning and i guess i kind of take the point that i you know i was out on friday
went away for the weekend so i didn't i didn't have the advantage of trying to do anything.
I agree.
Friday was, you know, when you get a move down like that on volume, typically this market
would be getting a bounce.
So, you know, I was looking for a bounce this morning.
I actually caught a little bit of that bounce because I was getting some exercise and I
looked up, saw the market scream higher and I just ran and jumped on the TQQQ, which I
had up and rode it for a little bit.
I don't know here. You know, I would tell you, I would love to say that this is over and, you know,
we'll see if we can get a nice bounce, but there are other things bothering the market. So I would
expect a bounce up, but not, you know, I don't expect us to scream to a new all-time high if
the war with Iran is over. I expect us to come back up, probably get back up into that range we had and then see if we can,
can get above there and maybe we get back to the 21 day or maybe even the 50
day there on the spy, which is up around the 683 area.
I would think that that would be very impressive, you know, but I was,
I think the same way I think in like in, in, in areas,
like the first area that I wrote down today was 661 to 663.
I'm like, first kiss, we wrote down today was 661 to 663 i'm like first kiss we pause there
do not be buying there and i also think it's a kind of a tough short because if you're short
right there they could easily do an overthrow today if for some reason the news flow is real
so the first compartment which i would i put it in was that was level one to get to which which
happened so that's that was easy Unfortunately, it happened so damn fast that unless you were there prior, it was hard to
catch.
Now the next level is the 21-day, which is starting to make its way down, which is probably
closer to 671.
So I was thinking if we can get to like 664, I was going to sell premium for the 671s for
Wednesday, thinking we can get two bucks.
And it's like shorting 671.
And I'm pretty confident if I get short there by Wednesday, it'll fine but at 662 I was like you know what I don't feel
like playing that game it's not like you know it's that compelling so I think we've spoken like
that a bunch of other times I feel like the last time they rallied it up we were trading close to
like 681 and I'm like I'm selling the 685s because I feel like there's no way you're going to get
above 687.
So that was my thought,
this process this morning.
Like we can get back to the eight day,
which we've gone to.
Maybe we push through the same way they kind of pushed it through on March 17th.
And if they push it through,
then I'll sell premium higher
just to try and take advantage of these ranges
because that's all you could do
because there's really nothing more
than these stupid range trades.
You know, there's no traction. But that's the way you got because there's really nothing more than these stupid range trades. There's no traction.
But that's the way you've got to think until the rebuild is over and then there's real trends besides the downside.
The other thing is we've done over 100 million shares today for a pretty damn tight range on 100 million shares in the SPY.
If they really wanted to, they had shorts trapped.
You think about it.
If you went home short on Friday, I'm sure a lot of people did,
and a lot of people because of how things were trading,
they're saying, here's finally the break, right?
Finally, we're going to get the big break.
I mean, you could have squeezed like hell today, and they didn't.
You could have squeezed the hell out of shorts today, and you did not.
So, you know, I really, you know, to me, I mean,
the 50-day would be the ultimate goal, but I think that you're right.
The 21-day first.
Yeah, I see what you're right. The 21-day first.
Yeah, I see what you're saying.
I remember that 675 was huge.
We had like four lows at 675, and then we finally broke through it.
So right there, that 675 to 677, that would be a brick wall. But that kind of thing could take 10 days, and by that point, everyone gets bullish,
and then we turn around for a different reason.
So we'll see.
Sometimes you get a day-and-a-half oversold bounce in a bear market, and then we turn around for a different reason. So we'll see if, you know, sometimes you get a day and a half oversold bounce in a bear market,
and then we just get back down to those lows faster.
Or sometimes they want to distribute stock again.
They want to play with everybody.
They have the wherewithal to do that.
And so far right now, if you look at the candlestick today, all it is is a doji,
which is kind of good because you have today's low and today's high,
and we'll see do we have a few inside days in here and then see whether we break above today's high later this
week or below it you know so you know a doji isn't horrible because you had some price discovery and
you know for down tomorrow you could buy verse today's low or for below tomorrow you know today's
low tomorrow you probably could buy to see if it reclaims or if it doesn't it goes lower you didn't
miss anything and if you were up you could short verse today's high and if it opens above today's high tomorrow and gets back
below today's high you could short it or you could you know so these changes are so big that if you're
trading for a living you don't you know yes there's some there's some free easy money um but again they
didn't do it at 9 40 they didn't open us down four dollars and rally 10 and give you a 14 point trade
they opened it up right here they pushed it up four pushed it down for and we're smack
in the middle so you had to be a surgeon again yeah and for me today it was i took the other
thing i did today was i traded tesla because it was showing relative strength first the markets
and it had a bunch of call buying all over it yeah a palantir did as well it had a it was
selling relative strength and but you know that's what i look for to do like today i mean especially when i was thinking of loans the indexes look
like a mess nothing really looked particularly great out there but tesla palantir did yeah
that's a funny thing is that tesla you know tesla made its high obviously by what 11 o'clock and
it's been struggling to you know you're gonna have to take it home long to make money on it
and have faith that it's going to get above it
versus be a trap like the other times. The last 10 times Tesla looked good on a day,
the next day it opened down five and killed you. To me, it was just a quick trade, Scott.
It was a great trade today. It was one of the ones that actually had traction. That and Palantir,
you could have bought in the first half hour because it got above Friday's highs while all
the other stocks didn't.
So that gave you a nice squeeze. But if you miss that trade and you're trying to position now versus the day trade, it's like it's kind of a coin toss.
And like here we are even coming even more into the middle of the range.
Yeah, we're just high-volume chop here.
You know, looking like something like NBIS, too.
It's down three.
So those high-valuation leaders that look good before this last stage
of the correction, they're in no rush to buy.
NBIS is down a little bit.
ASTS had no love today.
It's down a dollar.
You know, obviously MU and Sanders weren't up much.
They gave you some clues that, you know know they're playing downside catch-up so there's still reversion to the mean
and and just range trades so that means this isn't over amd showed some relative strength the last
couple days and this and tried to pop today but couldn't hold too right so you know yeah just a
lot of that so let me be the negative guy here okay um you know if
i'm looking at positive were we well you you kind you kind of were you said uh the doji's not so bad
there was price discovery uh you know you're right but no meaning let me just take the go for like
six days versus a day and a quarter i get it i get it it's disturbing. Look, if I look at the intraday charts today, specifically if I look at'd had a pop and then we just grinded higher all day long
and saw some consistent buying come in, I'd feel a lot better. I just, when a market is super
hyper-reactionary to things like, you know, announcements, it's usually not a good sign.
So like, I just, I don't feel really good about where we're at tomorrow. Now today, if tomorrow,
if we were like to fill in the wick
tomorrow a little bit, like maybe an inside day, then I'd think that we would maybe have a chance
to go higher. But today, it just looks like a continuation of what we saw on the 10th,
what we saw on the 17th, which is just that counter trend move, and then we're starting
to roll back over. I don't know. It just doesn't look very impressive to me.
I'm not disagreeing. I fully agree. It was just a matter of roll back over. I don't know. It just doesn't look very impressive to me. I'm not disagreeing.
I fully agree.
It was just a matter of how many days.
I wish this move happened in like three, four days instead of, like you said, one five-minute candle.
One five-minute candle.
It doesn't give you a lot of time to sink your teeth into things and massage them.
It's just like you got to say, here, this is where I think we can go and just buy them and then get out of there and say thank you very much, which that's not the easiest thing to do.
Somebody over the room this morning at 9 o'clock said, well, today's shot.
Might as well go back to bed after that big candle.
Yeah, you know what?
Everything I said was wrong.
I'm sorry.
A pot is rallying.
So I think that's going to save the market here.
What was that? MSos is rallying so i mean facetious you know whenever pot is rallying that's
that's a counter trend uh sign yeah all my options that i bought for january february
and march expired so it's allowed to go up today you know that's what that's what happened with
me and palantir mine expired on friday so that's why he's up today
i'm not going to be able to give you guys obviously the good technical short-term
argument but i do wonder just like with all this weakness here it's it's been a chop sideways
market as opposed to a downwards market is there any like in this weakness the strength that has
been able to show or the relative not craziness weakness
when you compare to some other stuff it feels like the market has all the reason to go lower but it
just hasn't happened yet really aggressively i know it's been a chop sideways and it's been an
ugly market uh no no first of all the spies the spies went eight percent off the highs so that's
not true it was side it was it was chopped sideways like two weeks ago and then finally
started to like roll down at least down eight percent off the high I
wasn't really here yes last week so maybe that happened then but like I don't
know I feel like 10% feels a little bit more rubbish we're just doing some
matic's here but it does feel in general this market has been able to hold
up at least relatively strength stronger than maybe it could have i look at it this way
we're now three sessions under the 200 day but that's fair last week does never get me actually
and things can go from a trickle to a cascade also that's that's you know they could wear they
wore everybody out for a while where trickling lower trickling lower trickling lower and then
you're like oh i could play this range and then the range breaks and it's unforgiving so that happens sometimes too oh a trickle turns into a waterfall
actually that's a statement so that that's what scared me on friday i'm like is this trickle going
to turn into a waterfall where all of a sudden we're going to see you know 614 in the spies which
will be 12 off eyes and that would be a great spot that was a congestion area so um so again
if you're if you're listening and you didn't go home long,
it wasn't the right thing to do unless, again, it was a spot
and you're going to do it multiple times
and you're not getting paid in the first quarter for it.
Plus, going home short I don't think was the greatest thing to do either.
The oscillator was minus 51.
You had a trend down day on Friday.
From where we were at the highs of last week, we were 670, 674,
when we went as low as was 644.
So that's quite a big range that if you went home short,
you're looking to just catch a gap down.
To me, sometimes I ask myself, is that trade worth it?
And oscillator minus 51, the fear greed indicator, the RSI, I'm like, you know, I don't know if you could be long, but I don't think you need to be short either.
You know, but anyway, now here we are today.
And again, I think everyone said it the right way.
This isn't that most, this isn't really that impressive.
There's no way you could say with high conviction that Friday's low is going to be the low of April.
No way you could say with high conviction that Friday's low is going to be the low of April.
And, you know, we don't know if this chop is going to try and mess with people for two or three more days or less.
So we'll see what happens tomorrow.
Like tomorrow, if we open up flat and like you said, we take out the wick and we get back to 6, 62-ish and you see an ice green candle in the upper end of this dough.
Hey, maybe then we can go to the 21 day.
They want to push back a little bit more.
But again, that's that's a later this week question.
Or maybe we close to the bottom end of today's candle.
We break below 656, and then all you have is between 656 down to 644.
Yeah, I think what the best plan right now for most people, like we talk here, Mike, you, me, Scott, whatever, because we're active and we're trading, whatever.
We're always looking for stuff.
But I think for most of the people who are listening here, what you should be doing is be patient obviously, but you should also get your shopping list together.
And the way I always try to make a shopping list in a down market is I'm looking at what names have the best relative strength, right? So
let's look at a name that doesn't have relative strength right now. Like look at hood. Okay. So
that's off 36% year to date. It's 52% from the 52 week high. Okay. If the market stabilizes,
that's probably not likely a candidate to be one of the next leaders. But if you look at a name like, let's just take a look and name it something like ASTS, right?
That's only down, it's up 6% on the year.
Or Amcor, which is one of Stock Talk's favorite.
That's up 7%, right?
CCJ, 7%, right?
That's right.
Wolf.
Marvel Technologies.
Yep.
How about Wolf?
27% year-to-date and only 9% off its 52-week high.
Look for names like that that have really been impervious to the sell-off.
Look at NBIS, right?
That stock is just basing sideways.
That's it.
So a lot of these names that have been basing and holding their levels haven't been able to move higher because the market's heavy.
Once the market does stabilize, that could be tomorrow tomorrow that could be next week next quarter those stocks have a better likelihood
to be the next winners in the next up cycle so i would just encourage people to get your shopping
list together and be patient you know yeah i agree like those those stocks might have a better
bounce and a better market just because they didn't go today doesn't matter because they're
they're not as oversold they're not as being down there's not as many shorts trapped but
there's just not as many buyers like today just because like you said mbis has been a strong stock
you know it's good you know today it's not up with the short covering rally because
you know it's really there was more buyers there and just waiting for a better market to have a
more sustainable move so like a stock like this like the m the MBIS is, what is it? I think it's above the 21 day and the spies are below the 200 days.
So right there, that should be at the top of your list. There's your relative strength,
exactly what you just said. And N actually is a name that not a lot of people know about.
It's also a very strong stock. It's a spectrum name. People need spectrum for you know it's also a very strong stock it's a spectrum name you know people need
spectrum for space and it's above the 8 day and the 21 day so if you find a stock that you like
that's above the in 21 day and the spies will blow the 200 day that should be on your a list for when
you feel like the market's in a better place and that would get you the most sustained move
but for now you know you just gotta make sure you know the difference between an oversold broken bounce and something that acts better.
That could be something to stay with for multiple weeks and months.
And right now it's way too early for most of that.
Logical.
I know you're always looking at some of these individual single stock Smith cap names.
Do you have any ones you want to talk here through?
Obviously go one at a time.
Scott, I know.
Maybe we can get Scott looking at them, but what's up, Logical?
Yeah.
You know, it's been kind of a running joke every time I come on here that you guys ask
me, so how long are you now?
120%, et cetera.
And I always tell you guys I'm like 140%
long or whatever I am. And I'm very transparent. And I'm also very aggressive. Typically,
I have 89% cash. So that should tell you what I'm thinking. I just don't think that this makes a lot of sense to stick your neck out.
If you...
Yeah, yeah.
And, you know, my style, I will say, you know, it feels like shooting myself in the foot because last year I definitely realized a lot of gains, especially as I felt like the
market got a little too ahead of itself.
Back in September, October, I booked a lot of profits.
I made a very large tax fund.
Unfortunately, given that I went very levered long in April,
I shouldn't say unfortunately.
Fortunately, I made money, right?
But unfortunately, since a lot of those longs were opened
April, May, etc.,
I was sitting on a lot of short-term capital gains.
So my 2025 tax bill was disgusting.
But now I should use that to my advantage.
I've already paid all of my taxes.
So I'm not sitting on a ton of unrealized gains.
So it's a very easy decision for me to not participate in markets right now.
I can cut out my positions and I can just raise cash.
And I don't even have to think about triggering tax events and booking games because I've already done that.
So I think for some people's styles, they don't want to trigger tax events and they want to be able to ride it.
And so given their styles, they are going for that long term cap gain status.
Totally makes sense.
But I may as well use this to my advantage.
It's a very weak backdrop. I think crash risks are still high. I think that, you know, while
I could see the Iran war de-escalating, I don't necessarily think that is what's going
to take this market to a sustainable bull trend to the upside. If you recall, we've
been distributing in tech since October.
That was way before we started all of this with Iran.
So the market was already selling off.
It just needed a reason to push it over the edge, which it now has.
I think that anyone who's been on Twitter seeing all the stats lately can tell you that put positioning is very high.
So people are very much positioned for the downside. They can tell you that the over put positioning is very high so people are very much positioned for
the downside they can tell you that the oversold readings are very high you know rsi and you know
sentiment are at like april 2025 lows so you know in the near term you could absolutely have a vicious
snapback bounce i mean i think that makes a ton of sense. And it can be, you know, those counter trend rallies oftentimes are, you know, very convincing
and make you think that, you know, we're out of the woods.
I think that this, you know, de-escalating the Iran war could easily be the catalyst
that sets off that stronger counter trend rally.
We got a taste of that this morning.
But for me, I'm personally not thinking that that is something that's going to get me
excited in markets.
I think that big tech is in a very rough spot.
I think that no investor appetite is there right now.
And without big tech, it's going to get really difficult to get this market going in an uptrend.
I think for buyer demand and liquidity to show back up, you're going to want lower prices.
So I'll wait,
I'll wait all this out. And I'll just chill. I own two stocks and the rest is in short
term T bills. No, no point. I mean, I spent the last like three months fighting for my
life. What's up?
I clearly got asked that what are the two stocks?
Oh, yeah. Nectar, which you and I we've talked about a while. There we go. I'm sitting on some gains still there. The other one is Syndex, SNDX, another biotech
that I've been long for a long time, kind of an in and out. Those two are acting really
well. I can see the fundamental upside. I think they have potential. I don't know if
Nectar would get bought out, but I think Syndex could get bought out eventually from one of their partners, or actually their main partner. I just like
those names. I'm sitting on some nice gains on them. I don't necessarily, like, that's
a situation where charts look good, fundamentals look good. It could be potentially uncorrelated.
I don't want to book the gains. I don't want to trigger that tax event. So, you know, having
a little bit of equity exposure won't kill me,
especially when it's thought out like that.
I think everyone has to remember that they have their own personal journey
when it comes to finance.
A lot of us on this panel trade very differently.
We have different time horizons.
We think differently.
So we could each say very different things.
There's a day trader on here,
then they're going to say, you know, there's a great environment
and there's a buy the dips, sell the rips, etc.
I've just been trying to do a lot of that.
And it's an absolute headache.
It's a waste of my brain cells.
It's a waste of my time.
It's stressful.
It's just not a good environment for that.
And sure, you know, there are some stocks that have been acting very well.
I think, you know, some of the stronger ones, like Brian was mentioning,
we're just consolidating sideways. That's fine too. But if we do get kind of a more vicious
correction, a deeper correction, then I don't think a lot of stocks are going to be able to
buck that trend. You know, you got to think about this from a top-down
analysis. And it's like, you got to assess the backdrop for the market environment. And the
market environment is not very good right now. You have to think fundamentally. Inflation fears
are back up to the highs, which means that rate cut expectations are pushed further.
This was happening while we were just starting to get negative job prints.
That's not good. We're getting, you know, the Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.7%. And that's
when inflation is actually going higher. So if you're not able to hold up growth, the
consumer is weaker. I mean, these just spell kind of trouble. And you're gonna, you're
gonna need some sort of, I don't know, blush. I also,
you know, think that he has to deescalate for the bond market sake. Anytime you get to the 10 year
to the 4.5% mark or the 30 year to the 5% mark. That's typically where he cries uncle, which is
exactly what you're seeing right now. So again, I do think he will deescalate. I think that that
could put, you know, some easing back
on the inflation picture. But a lot of impact has already been had. We don't know how sticky
that inflation issue will be. But more importantly, I think you have, you know, this backdrop
of a weakening consumer and a lot more murkiness, less clarity when it comes to rate cuts, which
you absolutely need if you're getting a weaker consumer.
So it's just kind of not a good setup right now.
Yeah, Scott.
I agree.
I feel like, you know, I trade on multiple timeframes
because I also run a business.
And there are people that want to day trade.
I make the most money for me when we're above the AIN 21 day in the spots and I could hold 20 longs and massage them and day trade around them.
I haven't been able to do that. And day trading is definitely a pain in the butt, like you just said.
Sometimes it's a good setup. Sometimes they take it away. Sometimes it's mental.
You know, this is just one of those times where, you know, every now and then maybe a few times a
week, you get a really good setup that gives you a little bit of even follow through the next day. But lately, the last
six weeks, I have friends that have been day trading for a long time that made a lot of money
during the volatility of 2007, 2008, or even during the pandemic. And this down move felt
like it was when we usually make really good money day trading the volatility, it was hard
volatility to make consistent money with
a lot of traps a lot of predatory moves so if i was just like if you feel that way then just do
less and you got to be patient up to pick the spots and if you are someone that likes a great
marketing environment to massage swing lungs and stick with them and you know and this isn't really
the time yet and it hasn't been the time for the past few weeks. And, you know, there will be a time where you can't be perfect and you have to start, you know, segueing into names when the market's making lower lows, like lower highs, lower lows.
And you're like, wow, my stock's really holding in there.
And, you know, it's shown relative strength.
They got to buy some just in case the market turns because that first leg of the market up, usually those names have sick moves and you want to be there.
But I don't think that people are missing out on that area of the move. Like those names have sick moves and you want to be there but um i don't
think that people are missing out on that area of the move like that's not what today was
i don't think it was today today you had to be really lucky to be in your seat grab it or say
i'm going to test some things on friday because we're oversold enough otherwise it was really
hard to grab today besides you know a few names like you said tesla had a you know you got above 379.50 in the first
hour there was a move to 385 so you had to carve out you could carve out four to five dollars if
you happen to not be long uh pre-market or and the same thing with palantir palantir got above
um this range which palantir looks really good to me to be honest it got above um 157 and then
there was three dollars worth of trades if you're if you look if you
were day trading but those two patterns gave you at least a reason to buy after the the first 15-20
minutes but that's only if you have to be involved dell also dell's been pretty strong also um but
other than that it's it's really that it's really hard to get excited and the first quarter is coming
close to an end it has not been an easy quarter. I'm not
going to brag about it and say I'm up X amount. I'm in a little bit of a hole, nothing that I
can't handle. And I'm not really upset the way I performed. It was one of those quarters where
I'm like, I always tell my traders, you can't say it's not my market or it's not my quarter,
but it kind of wasn't my market. It wasn't quarter I'm just happy to be you know sane and safe that's been like a theme for this you know the last six
weeks stay sane stay safe so when you get to better spots that are a little bit more have
more continuity you can grab them and go um but in the meantime you know your 401k should be getting
good prices you know finally the blood in the street account got a print and you're waiting
with a lot of buying power for when the turn happens and you're not a shell of yourself.
Because if you're a shell of yourself when things really get better, you're not going to even want to be bothered.
And then you come back after a lot of traders that had the endurance to stay with their preparation and their discipline of watching the tape.
They will have had a nice stretch before you get a higher low to go with which which is cool too i really like what you said there honestly i feel like there's
a thing online with these social media traders and everything like that where no one wants to
talk about you know losses no one wants to talk about anything other than large gains um but
that's just not the realistic thing. The
market's changed, there's better times to trade, cash in the position, and whatever is going on
there. We talk a lot about there really only being three outcomes that are acceptable in trades.
Big win, small win, and then the third one in there is small loss. A lot of the times,
you have your system, you build it out, and sticking to it is important in times.
Maybe you do take a step back and try and you know wait for your market you know i'm sure there is that
bull market somewhere in there as someone likes to say uh but it's it's it's an interesting
one and i i just find it to be refreshing and also for me as someone who looks on social
media is not as much of a trader on there i learn who really is knows what they're doing and is a
real person in this game by the losses not the gains and you know that you how they handle those
or are they actually talking about them because i promise you every single trader has losses
every single trader who knows what they're doing probably is a system that gets them to
x percentage win rate is i don't know i mean if they're not a scalper it's probably somewhere someone could even be like a 40 win rate but if your risk reward is
in the right place it doesn't matter so um yeah it's just i don't know what's interesting is i
you know i used to i used to do a lot of presentations and conferences where i went
over a lot of the tactics of trading which you know to me they're like you know secondhand but
you know i spoke for uh market
rebellion and i did another conference uh traders for a cause and i guess i'm really old because
they i'm so i my whole presentation is about the longevity of trading i mean like how the
hell have i been doing this since 1998 and one of the things i say is i'm like listen every year
there's this three really really good pockets of good trading where you have to make your money
and go after when it's go time like you gotta work on your go trading where you have to make your money and go after
when it's go time like you gotta work on your go time and you have to execute your go time and then
even over the course of a decade it's probably three years in a decade where you make double or
triple your average year and the rest is just about biding time staying sane doing things you
like to do having a routine and process that you like because you do it every day and and that's
the reality of trading it's not glamorous it's not like you're trading from a boat you're trading
from the mountains you can for a little bit for a day or two if you're on vacation you know on a
laptop very limited but you know the reality of the situation is you have to have that patience
and you have to know also you can get out of a hole i've been in like probably three holes in my
in my career not huge ones but holes where you're like oh shit i didn't make money for a hole i've been in like probably three holes in my in my career not huge ones but holes
where you're like oh shit i didn't make money for a quarter i'm down six figures and i gotta make
that back and if you're in that hole you know there's first of all there's nothing better than
getting out of that hole because you knew that was hard you do hard things you know you can handle
hard right that's why i always talk about doing selective hard because you want to put yourself
through some things that you know when hard happens you could be there so getting out a hole
and knowing you can um is what helps create your your inner strength and your trader spirit
so if this quarter was tough you know and if you could get out of it in the next six weeks and get
a nice second quarter paycheck like you'll be wow you know i just did something pretty damn hard and
i know i could do it again but let's try not to do that again. But it does happen
and you can't get rid of a hole in a week or in three days, you get rid of it, you know,
by stacking days and stacking days and having a positive outlook. And then all of a sudden
you're green and you're going and then there's nothing better than that. But, you know, a hole
does happen. Yeah, I've had three distinct, uh, phases of my career. One was
getting in a hole. Second was getting in a hole, but being able to get out of the hole.
And then the third was trying to avoid the goddamn hole in the first place.
I'm still, I'm still kind of in that phase right now, but, but like, you know, Scott, like, I mean,
it's, it sounds so weird because like there is nothing better
than digging yourself out of a hole, right?
Like I've had situations where I was in a hole and I thought I'm not getting out of
this and I get out of it and it feels like a win, right?
And you want to celebrate, you want to take a lap and have a beer.
And then I look back and I go, wait a minute.
I just got back to break even.
It's like, maybe I could have avoided that whole thing.
And the funny thing is for me, I am never more focused.
I am never more on my game when I'm digging out of a hole.
And I always say, how come I can't be that focused when I'm up?
You know, it's a weird, it's counterintuitive for sure.
No, but you hit the nail on the head.
That's so true.
But usually when you get out of the hole and then you're thinking clearly,
then at some point you look at what you'd wrong to get yourself put in the hole
and think about what you could have done different.
And the next time in the moment you do it different and it's harder to get back in that hole.
But you have to also admit that the hole wasn't the market.
It was also partially our fault, how we reacted to the in-the-moment trades.
Did you reduce risk when we broke the A in 21 days?
Did you ignore stops when you shouldn't have?
Did you try and overtrade and go for that last move?
Or whatever it was, you've got to take a long look at what you did wrong
so next time around you don't do it wrong so you don't have to go through it again.
Or how about this?
You got in the hole because you were fighting with your wife or you got in the hole because you haven't been getting good sleep or you haven't been eating right or you got in the hole because you scanned the news too much and you were just super pessimistic, right?
There's so many factors in our emotional life, right?
And they're so subtle, right?
They just come into our trading. I've always said
trading has the ability to distill our biggest fears, weaknesses, which is why I always tell
people if they're struggling in trading, they should go to therapy because there's so many
psychological aspects that bleed into the markets that we're not even aware of.
That's a thousand percent right. You just said it.
That's why some people, when they have their first baby,
they get in a hole because they don't get sleep
and they're all stressed out.
They think they have to support a family.
Sometimes after getting married, you're like,
this should be the happiest time of my life.
And meanwhile, you can't trade yourself out of a paper bag
because now your wife's like, we got to buy the house
and we got to do this and we got to do that.
So there is a lot of pieces of the emotional package.
So self-awareness is definitely key not uh not not hoping and praying and it all comes with time the the most one of the most important things is for the younger guys who just start like
they think they know everything especially if they make money out of the get-go what you don't
want to do is you know put yourself in a big hole in the first year or two and then by the time you
get it and you understand what makes you tick you're taking a while to get out of it and then all of a sudden
you've spent two years of your tuition and trading getting out of a hole so i always say like trade
smaller you know get efficient even go on a simulator obviously it's not the same emotionally
but do that for a while you got to get green first up for three months on a simulator before you're
worried about trading real money for three months but that's just a whole different part of you know there are guys that
are getting holes after 15 years so anyway um enough about the negativity whole part of it
well you know we're just trying to say that this type of quarter can get you in that so you're not
alone and you know make sure you be prudent trying to um get out of it and do it slowly and steadily
and um and the best thing you can do is just simplify, bring risk down, get green.
So this way you can control your positions, position size, and your P&L
versus holding something that you've ignored stops
and you're hoping and praying for daylight today
and this really does nothing for you
because you've been in something about three weeks from a lot higher.
And if that is you, what you should do is sell into this no matter what.
If you were jumping out of your skin, you know, on Friday when the market was,
you know, closed on the lows and you're like, oh my God, I'm down so much money.
What am I going to do? What am I going to do?
Well, you had too much on and you can't handle it.
So on a delay today, when you're up 1.3%, which isn't even a lot,
you trim a little bit into that and say, thank you for helping bail me out.
And then you figure out what the right thing to do is moving forward,
the right trade at the right time, not something you're sunk into.
Scott, we're here at 3.50 p.m. Eastern, normally around the time you go.
You kind of did give a little bit of a thought there,
but if there's anything else you want to leave the people with,
I know you try and make the spaces actual here for when I ask this type of questions.
If there's anything you're watching for the next week, we'll hopefully get you back on next Monday. But just in general,
anything you want to leave the people with. I just think that today doesn't do a whole lot.
You know, you got some new market discovery. You have new points of reference for this week. Each
week has had a different flavor. And I have, you know, a low in the spy from today. You have a low
in the queue from today. Then you have nothing until pretty much the low from friday you have today's high you have you know in the spies and
the queues you know kind of what acted better than not today you know you know that tesla is a little
bit better but it's been the most broken so you can't really hang your hat on that too much um
yeah it's just i would just say that you know that each week the trade is different and just
get up early enough and um do things to prepare yourself enough
with multiple scenarios
and just try and carve something out.
And if you're not,
then just sit there and watch and learn.
And again, figure out your threshold for timeframes
because you can't just have one timeframe,
especially if you've been doing this for a while.
If you're young,
just know that if it's been difficult,
this too shall pass.
Don't be Charlie the Car Chaser.
You know, there was, I think,
1,200 people at Broadway Trading in 1999 when I was trading.
And they were coming in cargo pants and flip-flops
and people were making millions of dollars.
By the time the tech bubble burst,
it went down to 2001,
when NASDAQ was 1,000,
we went from that many people to like 30 traders.
30 traders, because everyone's like,
oh, we can't do this anymore.
We're not going to stick it out.
They didn't learn.
That's when I went to Investors Business Daily.
I learned from Dan Zanger.
I got really good at what I do.
In 2003, from 2003 to 2007,
those 30 traders that stayed the
course and figured out their process made a ton of money while the rest of those guys that left
became mortgage brokers or whatever the hell they did. Not there's anything wrong with that,
but, you know, just because this has been a little bit of a trickier time, if you've had a tricky
time, just get better at what you're doing. It doesn't mean you need to move careers because
the market will be here with or without you. So figure out what you have to do to make this your career.
Scott, you mentioned Zanger and it's rare that I get to talk to anyone that's been around the
market as long as I have. I want to ask you a question. You were there in the late 90s. I was
in the late 90s. Do you think this market, this marketer in the last couple of years has gotten as crazy as it got
in the last three years of the internet boom?
I don't think it has,
but I know I may be misremembering
because it was such a dramatic time,
but I'm curious.
I don't remember what he turned into 40 million.
Oh, like 18,000 into 40 million.
You had some crazy great names back then.
Have we had those names?
You just had Micron go from 60 to 500, right?
That's kind of like Google when it came public at 1,000 or 100, whatever it was, right?
So he made so much money riding the trend.
He milked trends for as much as he could with major size.
So there's been some strong names you
know that that could have given you the same potential that he had then but i hear you i feel
like i didn't turn x amount into 40 50 million you know i'm a blue collar trader i did i do well i
look at short hills i'm in the bottom one percent of the top one percent of the world in short hills
but um well dan's trick isn't that he turned a little bit of money into a lot as much
as is that he got out of the market with a good chunk of it which was pretty amazing but i mean
like i remember there being things like you know i remember this company called zapata corporation
that made like fish oil and then one day they just came out and said they're going to do a
internet portal and they renamed themselves zap.com and the stock went up like 100%
overnight. Like we haven't seen crazy stuff like that yet. I mean, we've seen strong stocks,
but we haven't seen stupid moves where things are going up, you know, 500, 600, 700% in a week or so
because they're now an AI company or things like that. Well, we kind of during the pandemic,
we had GameStop, we had AMC. That was kind of silly.
You had Tesla pre-split, went to like $1,300 or $1,400 from $7,800.
So there were things.
Does it feel it? I mean, does it feel it like in your gut?
Does it feel as crazy as it was in the last part of the internet boom?
I'm not challenging.
I'm just curious.
It doesn't to me.
No, no, no, not at all.
I don't know.
This doesn't feel like we're going to be down 30% off highs.
Right.
That happened.
The financial crisis to me was nuts.
My mother-in-law actually took her money out of the bank and put it in a pillow.
Granted, she's Italian.
Not that there's anything wrong with that either.
I'm just saying there was some scary shit going on.
There was foreclosure signs everywhere you looked.
That's not happening now.
When I got my mortgage from my house in 2012, they me show my underwear that's how crazy they were in like making sure you had a you know strong financial sound so that's why the housing
market's been strong also with the way rates were in 2019 to 21 everyone refinanced so everyone's
biggest expenses is really their house and a lot people are locked in at two and three quarters or 3%.
So if they did that in 2020, even if they went with a 15-year, they're not floating to whatever the rate is.
So there's some pillars of this.
I've got 2.62.
So that's nice.
Say that again?
So we bought our current house in 2020, and I got like 2.625, some ridiculous rates.
Right.
That's a sick rate.
And if you bought it outright, you probably went with a 30-year.
Those who refinance went with like a 15.
Like I went with a 15 because I bought in 2012.
That's a sick rate.
Your biggest expense is still going up and your mortgage isn't going up.
So that's why the economy is still you know pushing along
when people like how is it going like this so i think you know 2000 i think 2029 to 2032 which is
three years from now is when the first real sets of resets come in from you know the the refinance
boom that happened during the pandemic when they left rates too low for too long, which is kind of helping now by not creating, you know,
such a negative environment in the economy.
But if we get the AI job apocalypse, right,
and unemployment goes to 10% by 2028,
there's going to be some problems.
And then you get the reset in 2029.
I don't want to be a doomsday, but that picture I just painted
is not going to be good
yeah i just think that we we have the potential to have crazy moves in the next three years
three to five years like we saw at the end of the dot-com boom and then probably some reckoning um
that's just what i'm that's kind of what i'm modeling out so you think it's 1997
That's kind of what I'm modeling out.
So you think it's 1997?
Exactly.
I think it's 1997.
I do think this is all going to...
Yeah, I mean, look, I'm not a doom and gloom guy,
but I do think AI is going to disrupt society in ways we don't even know.
But I just don't think we've had that ridiculous parabolic
where every time you turn around,
some stock is going to the moon overnight.
We've had some crazy stuff, but it doesn't feel as crazy as the 90s.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Every cycle is different.
But I get it.
Let's just go week by week, month by month, and make sure if you're 30 years old, it doesn't matter.
Put your money in every single month.
It's going to down cycles, help your average cost. If you trade for a living, just know what you can handle so you can get a paycheck monthly or quarterly.
And know which market is in front of you based on some indicators and moving averages and the things that we look at, not the TV sets.
But on that note, I got to jump.
It's $358.
I got to take the Alpha team into the closing.
appreciate you Scott as always sir
Appreciate you, Scott, as always, sir.
definitely good luck the rest of the week
Definitely.
Good luck the rest of the week.
Thank you for being with us.
on X I do a
free 20 minute you know morning
calls going over the futures what I'm looking at
the keys to the day bunch of different
scenarios on how things might react
depending on after the market
opens if you happen to be a little lost or you just want to
hear what I have to say
check it out shout out to Scott it's always going to say. Go check it out.
Shout out to Scott.
It's always going to be a good time.
It's also a good Monday morning, Tuesday morning,
all that good morning motivation.
Shout out to Scott.
Make sure you are following the speakers.
When someone says something smart, you should check them out.
It's a great way to find new people.
Mr. Brian Lund, I know you normally head off here.
I know you got your after call thing.
What are you going to talk about on there?
Anything you want to leave-ish to people with?
I'm not kicking you out, obviously.
Yeah, no.
I recognize patterns sometimes.
Yeah, sometimes.
Yeah, I'm going to talk about that shopping list concept.
I'm going to go through some names that I think have held up pretty well.
I'm not saying they're just out.
You kind of did some of the other ones there.
Give me one to leave us with, but keep
going. Yeah, I think Nebius
is holding up pretty good, and I think also
Stock Talk's name Amcor is holding up
pretty good, too. I'm not saying they're just buys. You don't just
go out and buy them, but they're things you watch
so that when this correction
whatever we're in right now ends or stabilizes
those might be the ones that are
the next leaders.
Thank you, my. Good sir.
No earnings really today after the close.
I just saw that dump at the end of the day.
I missed that.
I know Estee Lauder had a headline during this,
some combined thing.
I know Brian, you were talking, he left.
He was talking about the last hour
kind of being a defining moment
for kind of is this a real rally or not, really?
Obviously not a real rally, but a real move that the market is believing.
Basically, did Trump and Iran talk?
And it maybe sounds like what's happening here is, I bet you both are true.
And there's a faction who, Trump is talking to a specific person who's not who other people would say
is a leader.
That's probably what I feel like is both happening.
But yeah, logical.
It was a nice little tick down there in the last 15 minutes.
Probably the market on clothes was pretty red.
I did not even see it.
I mean, I was, okay, don't judge me.
I was looking at a freaking like 15 minute chart or something like that on the SPY.
Just to monitor how…
Well, because I wanted to look at more…
You have to monitor the situation.
I agree.
I was monitoring the situation.
And not only that, but I just wanted to know…
Okay, first off, today was a very high-volume day.
Okay?
Right?
118 million shares traded on SPY.
That's insane.
A couple months ago, 60 million was average.
So it's two times average today.
It's a lot of volume today.
But if you pull up the 15-minute chart on TradingView or whatever,
and you just look at where the volume took place,
a lot of the volume took place right off the lows.
It gapped up.
I guess that was the Friday Pride candle.
Yeah, that's the Friday one.
But basically, we gapped up.
We had a lot of volume there.
And then once that volume kind of came to a close,
it was just very low volume throughout the day.
I wouldn't say very low volume,
but relative to the start of the day,
we just kind of did nothing.
But the end of the day had this 15-minute candle.
I bet you if I go to five minutes, yeah, the five minutes is disgusting.
But the last 10, 15 minutes, whatever you want to call it,
five, 10, 15 minutes, it's the biggest volume by far in the day.
And so that's where the volume came in.
Towards the end, it was just complete selling volume.
I wish I could just show everyone what I'm looking at, but yeah,
there wasn't a lot of volume throughout the day and that was a big time dump at the end of the day.
Yeah, we've been talking about switching over to live streams. We'll see. I said it.
I want to make it happen.
Yeah, Felicity, we should be able to see this stuff. StockTalk sent me a message. He is
slammed with errands.
We'll not make it today.
You guys should go say some mean stuff to him
about his attendance, see if he shows up.
Just kidding.
But yeah, when you look on those lower timeframes,
it was a pretty ugly close.
I was looking at one stock
that has been working so far this year.
It is up 53%.
Clear Secure. I don't know if you guys have been seeing some of the stuff in the, obviously,
you've been seeing all the stuff in the airports. I've also seen some mixed messages that some
airports aren't as bad as said, but it does seem to, I know at least Puerto Rico is a rough one.
I'm sure this is good for clear secure business as the stock market seems to think so.
Stock is up 53% this year.
I saw it on my 52-week high list and I had to go take a look.
See if that one holds, but boy, it's been an interesting time.
What's up, Sam?
What's up?
How are you doing? How was the stream? It was good. It was good. Appreciate the repost,
sir. No problem. Of course. AOI had some news after hours. It's up about three and a half
percent. They secured a volume order worth over $53 million for its 800G single mode data center
transceivers.
On days like today, I literally just look for outperformance here, relative outperformance.
And it is just an outlandish outperformance for the inference stocks, data center inference
stocks, not data center in general, but mostly the ones that are involved in inference.
Fastly closed up 14% today at a new 52-week high.
So that one continues to do pretty well for me.
OSS up about 4%, bouncing with the markets.
DigitalOcean is up about 5%. CloudFlare is up about 5%.
Akamai is up about 3%, I believe.
I didn't check that one recently.
But on top of that, I mean, you saw a pretty good bounce in crypto, right?
So it really is just playing the bounces.
And we literally
came back up, tested the 200-day moving average. We'll see what happens for the next couple of
days. I'm not trying to do anything crazy here. Just holding on to what I've got.
I went long some XLE actually. Not in massive size, but I went long XLE last Friday, and that's pretty much flat today.
And I also shorted some oil via SCO.
Didn't really alert it or anything because it wasn't like a significant position.
And I did it like very quickly before the close.
But that one seems to be, that one did pretty good.
So I closed that one out this morning.
But yeah, you know, if you ask me,
we were overdue for a bounce.
We did have that crazy volume that Logical was probably talking about earlier.
Sorry, I missed that one.
And it's funny, actually,
Logical has been telling me
for the last week,
there's no hope.
The market's going to go lower.
You're just funny wording, sorry.
Well, he didn't say,
it wasn't for me,
he was probably already talking about it anyway.
Oh, there's lots.
I was like,
I was basically like,
all right,
well, I'm going to wait for the market
to tell me what's going to happen
with the price action.
And like, lo and behold,
we got last Friday.
I'm like, damn,
this mofo was right the whole time.
Sometimes I wish I could just like listen,
but obviously I didn't listen.
So Friday was pretty brutal. Last night was brutal. When I could just like listen, but obviously I didn't listen. So Friday was pretty brutal.
Last night was brutal.
When I looked at the market, woke up this morning, was like, well, something obviously
happened for the market to be up 2% after it was down 1% overnight in the futures.
And Sunday, pretty typical move.
Faded throughout the day, which is pretty interesting.
And honestly, I don't think anything's really changed dramatically, but it's actually pretty interesting because this is very
similar to what we saw last year with China, where China was basically saying that we are not having
any talks or negotiations with tariffs. Trump is talking out of his ASS. And it turned out a few
days later, a few weeks later, that a deal did come up.
So I think a deal is probably going to come up.
But I just, you know, even if we have a deal with Iran, the war is probably still going to go.
But it's probably not going to involve us anymore.
Or at least we're going to back off a little bit.
But if you look at this, there's still stuff happening.
So it's not like actually over yet. I think the market kind of digested that this morning after it got a little bit. But if you look at this, there's still stuff happening. So it's not actually over
yet. I think the market kind of digested that this morning after I got a little bit excited.
Even for my technical basis, we have to go above the 200-day moving average to get really bullish
here. But even then, we got a lot of work to do. All the moving averages, the 20, 50, 100-day moving
averages are sloping down already.
The EMAs are sloping down in the daily.
Actually, they've been sloping down in the daily.
The 9 EMAs below.
Actually, we rejected the 9 EMA on SPY, which is very interesting.
The 9 EMAs below the 21 on a weekly basis.
These charts are starting to look pretty bad.
You had the crossover of the 9 and 21 EMA.
The market bounced off the
50 EMA on SPY, which is good news to see. But it's very difficult to see. I mean, we're not
exactly at like the cheapest valuations for a lot of these stocks. And even though, yeah,
it does look like software is at much better valuations, but I think the issues we're seeing
with private credit as far as Toma Bravo and a lot of these companies that are heavily invested in software companies.
They are not necessarily underwater, but they're going to be a little bit concerned here. And
that's why they're getting insurance against their private credit debt. Because a lot of
these software companies finance a lot of their debt when rates were 0%, right? So they had very low interest rates and they're going to have to renew that debt or refinance it at much higher interest rates.
And that's going to pose a pretty big deal for a lot of the cash flows that these companies are getting.
And I think the market kind of is front running that or at least did front run it on a technical basis, right?
You still need a lot of work to do on IGV, but it is nice to see that it bounced off the 20-day moving average over here.
We did close like right on there. So, I mean, you know, we'll continue to monitor,
see what's going to happen there. But is there really like, are we going to go to new all-time
highs? I think one, we need the war to be over. First of all, we need oil to pull back more.
And oil doesn't necessarily, oil has already done damage to the economy, given its higher prices with inflation.
But the market's not really going to care about that as long as we know the war is pretty much over.
So I think it'll probably bottom way ahead before we even hear the war ending, which maybe it is ending at this point.
Maybe we did already bottom.
But I'm just going to wait and see.
I got like 5% or 10% cash.
I don't know the exact amount, but it's some around there.
But it's not really going to save me for much of the market continues going down
because I do have a lot of growth stock exposure.
But most of my exposure is really centered around data center,
data center inference, and semiconductors, and a lot less software.
But I do have a large position everyone knows already in Amazon.
Mercado Libre.
Grab, I have a decent, well, not really decent size,
just a few percentage points because it's right back to where my entry was
a couple of years back.
But they did have some news today that they are acquiring Foodpanda,
which is the largest delivery service in Taiwan for $600 billion.
And Uber was actually supposed to acquire them last year,
but they got denied for $1.25 billion. So Grab is coming in with a 50% discount, basically.
And this actually is good for Grab because it's going to be one of their largest regions that
they're going to be having business in. That's behind a few other countries. But we're talking
about over a billion dollars of GMV, gross merchandise value, and Grab is about $12 billion in GMV.
So it'll add a decent size to their GMV and start contributing toward their adjusted EBITDA margins and adjusted EBITDA profitability in 2028.
So I think it's good news, but I don't like to buy falling knives.
So I haven't added to my Grab position or anything, just holding on to it.
And it's sized just about right. Now, are we going to wake up tomorrow and grab is trading
six bucks again? Probably not. Food Panda or Delivery Hero, which is the parent company for
Food Panda, needs to basically pay off that debt to grab. I'm sorry, grab is going to need to pay
off the debt to food to Delivery Hero in order to make up for it. Even though Grab does have a lot of money on its balance sheet, it still
is a sizable purchase from the $6 billion in cash reserves we have. It's a $600 million
purchase. So they're probably not going to want to pay that up front and probably going
to hear more about those deal terms later on. But it is definitely adding to their ecosystem,
which is good to see. But overall, emerging market stocks have been decimated.
Mercado Libre is in the 1600s, all the way from the 2400s.
C Limited is in the 80s or 90s.
Nubank is up a decent amount today, but that's because interest rates went down,
which is good to see.
And a lot of China stocks are down.
It isn't really like, let's dive back to the market
because everything's going to come back.
I think it still is a little bit more wait and see.
And earning season is over.
And I'm dare to say like,
what other catalysts do we really have in the horizon
coming up anytime soon?
I don't think there really isn't much.
I think the market's just waiting to see
what's going to happen to the oil.
We'll see what's going to happen to the war.
So it might be a long game.
It might be a couple of weeks.
It might be three weeks. It might be a couple of weeks. It might be three weeks.
It might be a couple of days.
It might be an hour after close.
I mean, really, who knows?
And we have not seen a day of follow through in a long time.
The market has been super choppy lately.
If I look at the queues, like we go up one day, we go down one day, we go up one day,
we go down one day, we go up one day, we go up, we open up and then we close down the
next day.
It's like, we don't know what's going to happen here. Today's price actually wasn't super promising because it
did have a pretty strong fade from above the 20 day moving average. But I mean, who knows? I think
we're still going to need a catalyst and volume was also very high today. In addition to that,
did I actually post that? Yeah, I did. So, you know, going to wait and see. It was actually
also interesting to see that Costco came out with their Kirkland brands of energy drinks.
And as a result, Celsius is down 5.5%.
So maybe that is what contributes to it.
But energy drinks really is not something that I'm interested in doing.
If I do look at a certain energy drink, Monster, and MNST, this thing has been like, you could have just bought Monster a year ago and held
onto it.
And you would have been like basically double from there.
Actually, maybe more like about 50%, but still like that, that is a massive gain for a dividend
paying company that's pretty mature.
So obviously the gains in the market are not centralized around the Mac 7.
It's definitely not centralized around software.
It's either semiconductors or it's going to be defensives.
And XLE closed down, sorry, opened down on the day like a lot.
And it ended up closing up about 50 basis points.
So I think it's just a bit of following leaders in this market right now,
in this very narrow leadership market. You get a day like today where it's nice a bit of following leaders in this market right now, in this very narrow leadership market.
You get a day like today where it's nice to see a bounce, but arguably a lot of defensive sectors were up a lot today.
You had XLB materials, which is up about 1.2% today.
You had XLK, which isn't exactly a defensive sector, but it's still below the
200-day moving average. You have XLY, which is very much below the 200-day moving average. Tesla
and Amazon had a decent bounce today of about 2%, but that's because Tesla and Amazon bounced a good
amount. XLC is basically flat today, so you would have expected a bigger bounce than that, but
utilities are green today. XLRE is green today, which is real estate.
Stables is somewhat flat today, but isn't down dramatically. So it's not a massive rotation
back into risk on, but more importantly, financials faded the entire move today.
So are we back? Great image, by the way. I did bring that up on the stream today, which is
funny as hell because I've been trying to look for that image for the way I did bring that up on the stream today which is funny as hell
because I've been trying to look for that image
for the last year
that one is too perfect honestly
that feels like my portfolio
maybe this last green line was a little too big
yeah I know but it's funny
because at the point where I don't believe this bounce
which I'm still very much longer market
so it doesn't matter but when I don't believe it
is probably when the bounce is real
so I think there's a bit of skepticism across the board of whether we believe
this bounce or not. But even from a technical perspective, we're still below the 200-day
moving average. And coming back to backtest, the 200-day moving average isn't exactly the
most bullish setup. And you did see a lot of the volume today, basically the same amount of volume that we had, that we did have
last Friday. And a lot of the volume was in the selling toward the close, which is where most of
the volume is, but it was a sell candle into the close. So I don't want to read too much into that.
I'm not a very seasoned day trader here. Can I just say, yeah, go.
I'm day trader here.
Can I just say, yeah.
Yeah, go.
Today was very high volume, right?
And it came right after we had a pop to the upside.
Okay, after that?
Like we had, no, I'm just saying like we had big volume today.
Okay.
And today that it's on a day where we start the day with this huge gap up on potential
news.
And it's just enough to get
people to wonder are we back and then by the end of the day i think like underneath the hood you've
kind of had selling because otherwise this volume would have pushed us a lot higher if it was a day
where there was a lot of buying rather than selling it feels like the the sellers have um kind of
muted the reaction to the upside by kind of killing the rally, right?
I think we could say that.
And then by the end of the day, they just used whatever liquidity they found in the market and sold whatever they could.
To me, it just feels like another day of degrossing.
I don't blame you for thinking that.
You know, I don't blame you for thinking that.
And that could be possible.
And that could be possible.
It could very much be possible
because it's not the best.
It is not a bullish setup
when you break the 200-day volume.
Hold on.
It's not a bullish setup
when you break the 200-day with volume,
come back to retest it,
and completely reject it.
That is the last thing I really want to see
when that sort of stuff happens.
I just want to say one thing. Just to like okay the last six months basically we're in freaking march dude
and i'm talking back in october if you go look at the daily candles if you look at a daily chart of
the spy or the queues you can see that the there's been distribution, right? And people weren't really able to tell that it was true distribution
because the stocks went sideways, index was holding up.
But if you paid attention to the actual price action and volume behavior,
you'll notice that the days we went down, it was like minus 2% days.
And it was really big red volume. Okay. So what was happening,
and if you pull up the chart, you'll see, you'd have multiple days strung together of like this
low volume buying that would float the price back up to the highs of the range because we were
range bound, we were choppy side to side. But the days where we were buying and moving the price up,
We were choppy side to side.
But the days where we were buying and moving the price up, it was on very low volume.
And the days when it was sending us right back down to the lows of the range, it was
on very high volume.
And so to me, it felt like distribution and degrossing already at those highs.
And so if you were to try to sell and you have very large, like imagine you're like a fund manager with like billions, hundreds of billions of dollars and you want to like degross 10, 20% of your portfolio, right?
You're talking about billions of dollars of sales.
You can't just slam the ask because you'll absolutely crush the bid.
So you kind of get these situations where you're slowly VWAP selling intraday.
And then eventually it kind of gets to the highs of the range.
And then you kind of cash it in, especially if you feel that risk get heightened for that
week.
And that's what takes you back down to the lows of the range.
And then you stop your selling because you allow buyers to step back in and push the
price right back up.
And as it's going back up, then you sell it again.
And so that was the pattern that was going on for the last few months.
And eventually, then you got this Iran thing, which was after the distribution began, months after.
So then you get, you know, kind of now, oh, God, now we have an actual bearish catalyst.
So now more people are thinking about selling like, oh, you know, this is the reason oil is spiking.
So now more people become scared and they become net sellers.
And that's why you break down from the range.
So the issue is that those people who are probably selling and degrossing way back when,
it's a good chance that they never got to fully degross the amount they wanted to.
And so fund managers want to degross, they're probably going to take any opportunity they
can while the market's still within 5-6% of the all-time highs. That's just my thought is there's still probably a lot
of volume that didn't get degrossed and any opportunity to the upside will probably be met
with resistance. I mean, we are in a downtrend now. We've reversed the trend on a short-term basis. On a weekly basis,
we're starting to come into a pretty decent downtrend as well. I'm not uber bullish to
market right now, but I can position myself a further downside if things do continue
via put options and whatever it is. And I do think that it's never going to be too late to do that for myself.
And I am not really someone who sells or liquidates portfolio or anything,
but I have no problem cutting positions that I don't have that much conviction in.
And I did that late last week where I cut some swings or whatever it was,
cut some, in the last few weeks, I've actually, I cut,
I've reduced the amount of position in the portfolio because I want to stay concentrated on things that I am very bullish.
And especially, I reduced the amount of options in my portfolio significantly in the last few weeks.
And I have very little option exposure.
So I'm willing to see this through, right?
And I think that a lot of people really need to make that decision, right? Are you going to be someone who holds to this drawdown, whatever it may be, because no one knows what's
going to happen. Historically speaking, we are at very elevated valuations on the market,
but at the same time, and I hate to say both sides, but I have to note both sides,
is that earnings yield is actually pretty high still, right? So maybe that was the top that we
saw from memory. It was interesting to see that Micron is down a lot in the day.
Sandisk is down on the day when they were both up a lot in the year. Maybe it's rotating into optics and
photonics, right? Because you had a lot, you have Terra Semiconductor up about 5% today.
You have AOI bouncing a lot today and you had that news after hours regarding AOI. You have
Coherent up in the day. You have Luminar up in the day as well. Is it light? Yeah, light is a
ticker. Yeah, that's up in the day. well. Is it light? Yeah, light is a ticker. Yeah,
that's up in the day. It's up about 3%. So not everything is up. When I do look at Microsoft
and I look at Google, these two barely bounced today. A lot of the bounce that we saw in the
mega caps was mostly Tesla and Amazon and Apple. Besides that, oh, Netflix too, and NVIDIA. But besides that, two of the
Metcats were lacking today. And I think a lot of it has to do with Microsoft is that you didn't
really get that much of a bounce in IGV. And a lot of IGV or a lot of software stocks were not
even updated at all. CRM was down today. So are we back? I don't know. I think it's still a little
bit of a time where you want to just wait and see what's going to happen. And I don't think it's like still a little bit of a time where you want to just wait and see what's going to happen.
And I don't think it's really, I mean, do whatever it's right for you.
But for me, I don't really see it as a time where it's like, I'm going to try to take a stab at this right now because I think I know where the market's going.
I don't think the market knows where it's going.
But like you mentioned, you know, we are, we came back to retest the bottom of the range.
We've been range bound for the last four months.
We finally broke that range on Friday.
And now we're coming back at the bottom of the range.
And like I mentioned, the moving averages where we retested to a moving average and
rejected it.
So is there going to be continuation to happen?
Usually, in my opinion, when the market makes these fast moves very quickly and the VIX
is at 35, I was at 30 this morning after that news came out, you're going to get a little
bit of consolidation.
Probably not the best time to own short dated options because you need that move to happen.
But if the VIX starts compressing, even though the market is flat, you're not going to get
the move you want.
The theta is just going to burn.
So maybe it might make sense, and a lot of traders do this is that you just wait, you wait
for a setup. And that's probably what I'm going to do. I'm going to wait for a setup because I
don't need to make a move right now. And even then, on a day like today, I'm up a considerable
amount. In fact, a lot of the positions that I have open in the portfolio, they actually closed
higher from where they open on Friday or even closed on Thursday.
So that kind of tells me, hey, look, my portfolio is having some decent performance, but I'm not going to lie. The Amazon, Mercado Libre, and a lot of these software stocks that I own, Zeta,
like that has hit my portfolio hard in the last few months. Then again, whose other portfolio
wasn't hit in the last few months. So we're going to wait and see. There's no, like I mentioned,
there's no earnings coming up. There's no FOMC meeting, whatever.
It really just to wait and see what happens with this.
On a seasonality perspective, we could have further downside in April, but who knows?
I mean, at this point, I'm just starting to talk some things as far as what I'm observing.
I don't really see much happening right now, so I'm just going to wait.
Seemed to be a thesis.
Sorry, I took a bite of these peanut butter whatever things. It was the driest thing
ever. I was fighting for my life
to get through that and unmute.
Nutty butter?
No, it's probably
Lance. It's not a cookie. It like a more of like a ritz with
peanut butter in between it oh everything but it's like off and it's honestly not horrible
but boy was i fighting for my life there for half a second i was trying i was trying to unmute pretty
quick um but yeah that tends to be the theme tends to be the conversation we've been having on the
spaces kind of the general market backdrop i did we see we got a ryan joining us up here that tends to be the theme tends to be the conversation we've been having on the spaces
kind of the general market backdrop i did we see we got a ryan joining us up here
did you make money today on the uh full trading stream greetings
so we're talking about the question yeah i know you made money in the stream
sometimes you know listen this was uh coming off of uh coming off of Ryan's right here in Puerto Rico.
So let's just say maybe not
the prime time this morning feeling.
So I would be surprised if he traded less.
Or degenerate.
He's degenerate.
He's not going to trade less.
He's degenerate.
No, I did trade less.
Well, I'm trading less in general right now.
I mean, one guess of traveling is one thing, I'm trading less in general right now. I mean, one, yes, traveling is one thing.
But the way the market is right now,
when things are outside of the norm for day trading,
I just pull back.
I have no reason to try to fight this headline back and forth stuff,
which, what a wild day of just back and forth headlines.
Yes, no, yes, no, yes, no, whatever.
No, you didn't.
Snip, snap, snip, snap.
So we'll off this reference there.
No, it's, yeah, it's, we powered through it.
We took a little, a couple little,
small little trades here and there.
And I don't know, there's what,
I mean, when a big move happens like that in pre-market,
what do you do?
I mean, yeah, the range was pretty big,
but it's consolidating,
even though the range is wide.
It was just consolidating after this morning's move.
And my internet went out like an hour ago,
so that didn't help either.
What were you in puerto rico
for uh some guy got married last night i don't know if you know oh yeah i don't i don't think
you know bro probably not yeah man i wish he was on here i want to tell him congrats dude
yeah it was pretty awesome good time fantastic great food food was good honestly food was surprising like normally i feel like wedding food is not good
but it was good yeah that that was that's why it stuck out to me usually i don't even
you know deal with the food at weddings so that was pretty good
because the wedding was in puerto rico dude if it was in like california or something
it would be expensive they had this uh this like skirt steak
that was amazing but you know what the skirt steak was really good actually wow yeah I agree
tell me man it was really good that was that was the peak one
uh but yeah anyway you know if you look at it from a simplistic view, like I caught some
of the telling of what Logic was saying and then I heard Sam's comments there.
You just, you can take it really simplistic at times and sometimes it's a good exercise
to just do that.
If you go look at your daily chart, especially if you're a tech investor, go look at your
NASDAQ for your QQQ daily chart. You have a multi-week consolidation that broke down, back-tested, and rejected,
rejected into the 200-day from the underside.
Is that the say-all, be-all?
No, but that's the simplistic way to look at it and kind of ground yourself a little bit and say,
okay, well, all it did was break down, back-test.
Does it accept back in?
And we go right back up to the middle somewhere.
Probably need some headlines or some catalysts to do that.
Or I guess the more likely option is you broke down.
There's a lot of uncertainty.
There's still people, you know, kind of dumping some positions.
I mean, to me, it's more more it was more like hedges and short covering
uh than anything or you know like this morning when it shot up you have a lot of people hedging
that were staying net short so it's i don't know there's a little little like
pieces of the market fighting with each other right now but the the overall thing is we've
we've basically rolled over we're hanging out at the 200-day moving average
for the first time in, you know, months, multi-months.
And all we did was come up and back test
both that and the consolidation area
and get rejected today.
Even with, I guess you could call,
I guess more good news than bad news.
But I think because of all the confusing misinformation, and I think
half of it is on purpose to just completely just confuse everyone. Even with that, I thought there
was a little bit more on the good side than bad side today. And even then, we still couldn't
really get back up and close that 200 day that we lost on Friday. So I don't know, that's where I'm at overall.
When I look at the market, I just go simplistic as you can.
You're trading underneath everything,
every major moving average you have.
You back-tested it.
You back-tested the consolidation that was previous support.
Now it looks like it could possibly be turning into resistance here.
Just I'll stick with that until the market tells me something different
and continue. I mean, I just don't think there's a whole lot to do here. Just I'll stick with that until the market tells me something different and continue.
I mean, just I just don't think there's a whole lot to do here. So overall, until until these
things, I mean, the market hates the uncertainty. And with the plan or whatever's happening in the
Middle East changing from one hour to the next and the messaging changing and stuff like that,
it's just it's very convoluted so
i'll continue to wait it out
obviously it's a very different game when you're playing in the uh
intraday versus most other stuff honestly everyone's gonna be a little different so
i'm sure there's more opportunities in this market.
I honestly missed last week, dude.
I sat up here.
I was like, you know, we're kind of hanging in there.
It's not so bad.
Last week did get a little ugly.
But yeah.
Yeah, that's what I'm saying.
And like, I mean, are there some charts that still kind of look okay?
There's some software names, some tech names that kind of look okay.
There's some different spots that you can say, okay, that kind of looks okay. But my problem is, if I want to take a swing trade on something
like that, or, you know, extended type of trade, if the market doesn't cooperate, I mean, that can,
there goes, you know, your chart, your setup, your great name, whatever it is, can basically go out
the window or not go anywhere because the market itself isn't cooperating.
So I have that.
And are we far enough off of highs for like investors to really get excited about prices here?
I mean, yes, there'll be some, but I think I would argue that we're not far enough off
of highs as in a general market where a lot of people start getting excited about an actual
discount in the market.
That is fair. That is fair. Hey, Ryan, you want to give me a little, okay. Logical Sam, are you guys going to be on the stock pick show after this yeah i think i got i think i broke even i was long aoi and that thing gapped up the tuesday morning which is where they take
the starting price from so i was up in that one and i was also long hmz two times long hymns
which is down so i think i just canceled myself out there but um we'll see who the winner is later on.
Yeah, I'm not doing much stuff picking right now.
But here's the thing.
It's a fun little game.
Cash would probably win, to be honest.
No one's held to it.
You can pick Cash if you want.
You can pick TLT or anything.
Honestly, you can go.
People have been using those 2X short tickers,
but it's weekly little game competition.
I don't know if you want to give a name or two into it.
I'm going to throw in.
I got some.
I'm going to do it.
We're going to go again.
At one point, doing BMNG and BMNU is going to work.
Probably not this week, but at one point, I'm going to win.
We call it Risky for the Biscuit.
But yeah, that show will be on after this.
Stock to Logical.
I don't know if you want to maybe give one or two and play into it.
You don't have to.
It could just be cash.
I'm just not a week-to-week kind of guy, honestly.
I won't be there, but you can say cash from me, brother.
All right, we're going to give him me brother all right we're gonna give him long
btc and we'll give him long i think he said like long tqq or something i thought that's what i
heard honestly watch it work though you guys will troll yourselves in the end like the bounce is
coming a bounce is coming like let's be real but it's gotta happen you know stocks don't move up
or down in a straight line.
So I'd expect some sort of rally.
I thought today would be that, but I don't even know if this will spark it.
Yeah, we don't have anything coming up off of the back of this one.
So I'm really good to just still hear if there are any topics
that you guys are finding interesting right now.
Obviously, there's the large geopolitical elephant in the room.
Ryan, did you know how much clear, secure stock is up so far this year?
The, like, airport thing?
Yeah.
I don't know how much it's up on the year,
but I'm not surprised that people are
running it up.
53% it is up
so far this year.
My friend pitched that to me
so hard three weeks ago
before their earnings, and I was like,
dude, I'm never going to buy that stock. I think it's so dumb.
Dude, I'm never going to buy that stock.
I think it's so dumb.
All I know is TSA is crazy everywhere apparently right now.
Oh, that's the ticker symbol, U?
Oh, my goodness.
I was actually going to log this one at $46.
Why, though? Why is it called
you? Why would they pick that?
I don't know. My experience with Claire
is that that thing takes longer than being
on the line sometimes.
Same.
Same.
They have tents outside the airport here right now.
For all the people waiting.
Yeah, I always talk to the people.
Well, listen, listen you gotta at least
have tsa pre-check if you're a traveler if you're actually going pre-check at least
i i don't know if it's every airport but puerto rico leaving here was definitely two three hours
what they were saying that's how it was last week hou Houston was at least two hours, if not longer.
It was funny, I have a buddy that was in Austin, and he said that there was a guy flying from Austin to Dallas,
and the TSA line was longer than it would take him to just drive to Dallas.
I kind of got lucky when I was flying in Fort Lauderdale.
I was like, I kind of just spent the night in the airport
just because that's kind of how it went,
not because of anything that was happening.
And people started lining up and I was like,
I'm just going to lay here for a little longer.
And the line got freaking long at 4 a.m.
And then I just went up to the front of the line.
There was a TSA pre-check sign.
I cut literally everybody. And I got in, but it was just six to the front of the line. There was a TSA pre-check sign. I cut literally everybody.
And I got in, but it was just six people in front of me.
So that was nice.
TSA pre-check is worth it.
To me, that's what this is.
I mean, I think I was out of it today,
but there really was not much in my market that I thought was interesting.
We were playing a he said, she said
game. That was the big story.
That was all there was. All day
long. If you go back and look
at all the... We've watched a lot of
the same news headlines.
Other than what Apple announced, their
WWDC thing,
Estee Lauder had some kind of
possible talks to combine with whatever that other brand is.
But outside of that, I mean, I really didn't see like hardly any other headlines across the market.
Like we didn't hear anything about really like NVIDIA.
I think there was an OpenAI, ChatGPT thing where you can store your files in there now locally
instead of like,
you know, in Dropbox or cloud something.
So like they're, they're like adding that feature.
It was like the only little like things like you didn't hear anything about Microsoft.
You didn't hear anything about NVIDIA, Amazon, anything else like really throughout the entire
day.
There was that one MU article that kind of, you know, hit some of the memory stocks today.
But it was just that he said, she said,
all day long. We talked to them.
No, they didn't. They called me.
I didn't call anybody.
We talked to this guy
and these guys are saying, no, we didn't talk to you.
I don't know.
I think they're clearly
talking. They're just maybe not talking
to the same people.
So, okay.
Yeah, that was the story
of the day, though.
I mean, if you take out
all the leaders,
who are you talking to?
Who's in charge?
So I think that is what's happening here,
is who is in charge, and
there's maybe talking to two separate groups of people.
I don't know if that gets us closer to an end of this, if we're being real.
But I mean, I don't know.
I'm not going to sit here and be a geopolitical expert.
It does seem like there will be more stories that kind of take us out of that.
Literally, Bloomberg just published an article.
Spotify lays off 15 people.
That was an article that just got posted.
Crazy.
It's a slow day.
Slow day.
Slow news day.
And there's no March Madness today.
It's just a...
Well, and it's spring break week, right?
There are a lot of people that travel.
Their kids are out of school.
We gotta...
Sometimes at one point, we gotta just remember the weeks that get like this.
There's literally nothing macro going on.
My read is this week most years would probably be a little lower.
It's a good vacation week.
I guess that's what happens. I guess it's literally just spring break. People go with their families.
All right.
I have no reason to be here, but I'm just going to leave it open.
Yeah. I was trying to look around.
That was like, because we talked about it earlier on stream.
It was like, okay, there's no earnings really this week.
Like very handful of companies, I mean, whatever, GameStop tomorrow
and some other names.
But there's nothing really going on there.
There's not a whole lot of macro data.
Any of the macro data, you're basically wondering what does the effects
of all this oil and all this stuff going on, LNG, what does the effects of all this of oil and all
this stuff going on LNG, what is the effects of that actually hit the data? So does it really
matter where we're at now? So a lot of, and the thing is, and it's worth mentioning this again,
as a human, you're programmed your entire life that you have to be doing something. Like you get anxious when you're not doing anything when it comes to like work.
And investing like that can work against you.
And it's important to know that there's times where you just don't do anything.
And it's like you have this urge and you fight the urge and you're patient for a week
and you're patient for a second week or a third week.
But eventually like that urge, if you let it win, you start to make poor decisions. And that's why it's so tough
in periods of the market like this, especially if you're not like super active, you're just,
you know, maybe an average active investor, you move some stuff around here and there,
you keep up with stuff. And you're like, I really want to do something. It's like you have to just
like fight that urge and, you know, do nothing.
Which is, it sounds easy, like just tell somebody to do nothing.
But you get so anxious that you want to do something
because in every aspect of your life, if you're not doing something,
like you're not working, you shouldn't be getting paid.
If you're not, you know, taking advantage of the time that you have,
you're wasting it.
But in this case, this is where you should be doing that.
I saw a buddy of mine just post an interesting stat.
Do you know when the last three times were that the Nasdaq 100 closed below this, the 200 day moving average for three consecutive days? Here are the last three times were that the NASDAQ 100 closed below this, the 200 day
moving average for three consecutive days, here are the last three times.
March 10, 2025, it fell an additional 13%.
January 24, 2022, an additional 26% drop.
March 11, 2020, an additional 13% drop.
Pretty interesting.
My natural question is, what about the time before that?
Like three times before that?
I think that's enough for me.
Three for three is good for me.
I don't know, man.
I've played some pickup basketball.
I've hit some three shots in a row, and trust me,
it's not happening again.
So if we go back, I'd imagine that it has more scenarios.
Maybe it's not a 100% hit rate, but I'd imagine it's still a very high hit rate.
And then you're going to work in data points like 2008 and 2000 in there that are going to absolutely scare you to death.
I am just messing around here.
I don't know.
But that is my thought when I hear stuff like that.
I'm not wrong, though.
It's interesting that it got through most of 2020 with really just one.
I think 2021 was a pretty bad year as well.
I guess it really didn't happen during those times.
Interesting.
What do you mean 2021? It was a very bad year as well. I guess it really didn't happen during those times. Interesting. What do you mean 2021?
It was a very good year.
But 2020 then?
2022 was the bad year?
2022 was the bad year.
Gotcha.
30% drop.
So you escaped 2022 with...
Not one there.
Alright. with not one there. Interesting.
This actually might be a good tweet.
What stocks in your portfolio closed red today?
On the watch list,
Disney, Berkshire Hathaway, Salesforce, Qualcomm, Transmedics.
Logically, you're not a Transmedics watcher, right?
I used to be. I used to be like the number one bull on that name i know that name probably better than i would venture to say you
think you'll get back into it at some point 99 of people no i don't think i'll ever get back into it
um i've just done too much industry research and I've met with people who actually own organ
procurement companies and obviously they're going to talk their book about like you know the evils
of transmedics or you know the the issues with transmedics because they're competitors so I
understand that I take it with a grain of salt but even then uh I've also you know had conversations
had the privilege to have conversations with like, surgeons
at top transplant centers.
And basically, everyone in the field acknowledges that transmedics is a great solution.
For right now, it is absolutely the best solution.
But the price tag is very, very high.
And I think some people will try to say,
oh, well, what's the life worth and all those things.
But people are working around the clock
to try to figure out how to get a just as good solution.
And that's the issue,
is that if they're able to do it at like 70% or 80% lower cost,
then that's going to be
a nightmare scenario for them.
So I just don't want to be in it because it still feels somewhat binary.
That's fair.
Stock is on the watch list red.
UNH, Micron was also red today.
I know that story you were talking about.
Qualcomm.
Qualcomm was read.
What else was...
Lockheed Martin was read today.
Weird move on MSGS
in After Hours.
What's this?
Is that the Knicks?
It is the Knicks,
but I just don't see anything.
It might just be fake news.
There's a funny story today.
Cal Shee two block
athletes politicians
from trading on the markets.
I thought it was funny
that this is that
they are going to do it
and they haven't done it already.
That feels like it would have been
a step one, but.
It's what it is.
That's probably a fake MSGS move.
Yeah, after hours of liquid stock like that, yeah.
All right, I might close this out.
Ryan, I can open up the next space if that helps for you in 15 months.
Awesome. That would be great because it's a hot spot.
Because it was, I guess it was all rainy.
So everybody's sitting in their rooms watching Netflix at the beach and killing my Wi-Fi.
Instead of being at the beach, yeah.
Listen, they brought the bad weather.
Now they're leaving.
It's going to get nice and warm tomorrow, let's say.
Tomorrow says, it's still raining, actually.
It's honestly not the best week coming up next week, either.
All right, guys.
Have a nice day.
See you.
See you logical.
See you guys.
We're going to open up another space from the Wolf account in 13 minutes.
We appreciate you all.
If you enjoy this type of live conversations,
make sure you're following the host of this space, Stock Talk. talk obviously we'll be back on the next one uh we'll get some
more speakers come in we had scott redler on the first hour of this one i appreciate you guys for
all hanging out with us last week we were both at the nvidia gtc event so it was a little bit crazy
but we are back here in person uh should be grinding back to the normal schedule i literally
am done with traveling for the next month, so I am locking in every day.
We got some good stuff coming.
I'm going to even try and send out some good invites here,
get some cool people.
I bet you'll have Dan Ives on the space in the next month, this month.
I think we're going to have, by this month, I actually mean April,
so we have a couple days.
Oh, we have like two weeks.
So we'll have Dan Ives probably on the space.
I think I'm going to get Dan Niles to come on. We we'll get a couple really good speakers on here so stick with us i appreciate
y'all for hanging out oh another space coming up from that wolf account in 12 minutes 12 minutes Thank you.
