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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: March 25, 2025 Duration: 2:16:54Space Recording
Short Summary
The market saw positive movements in Bitcoin and related stocks, indicating growth. GameStop's decision to add Bitcoin as a Treasury Reserve asset highlights ongoing innovations in cryptocurrency adoption.
Full Transcription
Good afternoon, everyone.
Happy Tuesday.
Welcome to Stops on Spaces.
Take a quick look around the market as we have our...
Friends and panelists join up this afternoon. We are break-even on the S&P right now. After going a long way to go nowhere, both overnight and throughout the entire New York trading session, CQQQ is up $1.60. It's 0.33% for those keeping tabs at home. IWM, small caps are red as well as the Dow.
not too bad red but they are red there we saw some strength in a lot of the tech names today
tesla up 1.3 percent uh navidia is still red but has been slowly tracking its way back up
throughout the day um broadcom was noticeably red as well the rest of the mag seven names and
the top 10 of kuku all green across the board was seen if there's anything else that stuck out
to me i know crowd strike was up uh
a decent amount, 3.6% I'm seeing right now.
I saw some other names down today.
We saw him down 3%.
I saw Draft Kings was down about 5%.
And that's about everything on my radar as far as looking across for the crypto people.
Bitcoin is slightly green today.
MSTR is up 1% as well.
Coinbase is down just over 1% right at the 200 level.
And yeah, that's about where we're at.
Evan, I know you've been traveling and got some stuff going on if you're available.
Jump in and say hello. If not, we'll throw it around.
Nothing, nothing for me. I'm excited for the space and make sure you're following the speakers and I'm looking forward to what everyone has to say.
I've been on the plane until it lasts like seven hours. I'm tired.
Yeah, I can imagine that. All right. Well, we have a great panel lined up today for sure.
I'm going to get the co-hosts sent over to Stock Talk and to Evan, and we are going to start throwing it around the Godfather.
You were the first one in today, so I'm going to give you some preference here.
And have you kick us off on this Tuesday.
Yeah, good morning. Thanks for having me.
So, yeah, as you mentioned, pretty much a chop fest today going nowhere fast. I think...
You know, the sentiment numbers this morning, from my standpoint, just reinforcing what we've seen across the board in terms of the soft data.
And, you know, there are people downplaying it saying that, you know, it's just a lack of conviction in the markets.
And, you know, we're not actually seeing it translate into spending and all the rest of it.
But I'm a little more.
Sanguine on that, I think that, you know, there is enough evidence that sentiment does have a way of preceding consumption and, you know, inflation does have a way of dampening consumer confidence and so on.
So look, my view here has been that we're entering an air pocket or a potential air pocket here.
with the lack of clarity and direction in the first quarter,
contributing to a bit of a gap in corporate earnings.
And I think that there's evidence of that.
We're starting to see some material decreases in earnings estimates throughout the year.
I can get on historical multiple basis and some
slight revisions down to a 53, 5,400 kind of fair value for the S&P.
I think there's some technical gaps in the chart that some technicians have highlighted
that they would love to see filled.
So I'm still waiting to see that.
And I think this period where we've got a lack of liquidity going into tax filing deadlines
and so on in April.
Okay.
and further unrest on the trade front.
You know, we could see this.
We haven't seen that capitulation in the market.
We haven't seen that spike in the VIX, you know, into the 30s.
And yeah, I'd love to see that before there's kind of an all clear.
You know, today it's clear that people are just lacking a conviction.
The violent unwinds that we saw
You know, in February and early March, you've clearly subsided, but there's certainly a lack of conviction on the long side.
Everyone's in wait and see mode, not just, you know, from the administration tariff clarification side, but, you know, also geopolitical uncertainty.
Trump's been dropping hints that, you know, reporters will be talking a lot more about Iran, you know, in the coming days.
And we've seen some ramping up of chat about Iran.
about further sanctions, you know, is that a precursor to something that delves into the military side of things?
I don't know, but either way, the market's clearly in wait and see mode ahead of April 2nd.
In terms of funds, flows, yeah, we saw a bit of short covering near the end of last week and yesterday.
Yeah.
Interestingly enough, I read somewhere that ETF flows were like a third of the market, which suggests to me that, you know, again, this is just repositioning for the most part.
There's not a lot of sort of individual stock retail activity happening at this time.
We're approaching one-year lows in terms of...
positioning or not exposure to U.S. industrials,
but on the flip side,
and then exposure to U.S. financials is approaching one-year highs.
So it's interesting to see this, you know,
despite a little bit of short covering that we saw in some large-cap tech,
that money flow continues to rotate into,
I think energy is the leading sector,
followed by financials this year.
So, yeah, it's just kind of,
You know, one of those situations where the serious tailwinds to the market that we're likely to see in the latter half of the year that kind of make up for this gap.
that we're currently seeing or expected to see in terms of government spending,
supporting the economy.
I think three quarters of all the jobs in the last two years have been related to the government.
One third of GDP spending is government related.
You know, where does that baton get picked up by the private sector?
And, you know, what are the offsets that?
that see that in a meaningful way in the market and when does that come into play?
And, you know, it's clear that, you know, things like trade policy and rejigging of government
revenues are the first priority of this administration and those other things are going to come
into play in the latter half of the year. So that kind of aligns with what you're hearing from
a lot of the Wall Street strategists, initial cutting of year-end targets and
And then a few folks highlighting the fact that once we see some of this tax regulatory and other offsets enter the picture, hopefully around mid-year, the market starts to pre-factor in some of that and growth and margin.
And leadership again gets rewarded with multiple expansion, but, you know, clearly not seeing that at this time.
So aside from sectors like gold, which, you know, has its own macro bullish positives at work,
I won't go through all of those and isolated things like copper.
Yeah, financials and a few other very small pockets are working.
Otherwise, there's just not a lot of commitment in this market.
Appreciate you kicking us off with those thoughts.
Their godfather.
Options, Mike.
Let's go your direction next.
Hey, Ann.
Thanks for having me.
How are you?
I am better than I was yesterday.
I've been slamming these emergency packets.
I'm basically snorting them at this point.
Ah, man, that's awesome.
I need a little orange stuff going in there.
Just awesome.
Yeah.
You know, today was kind of like a very do nothing type day in the markets.
The spy gapped up a little bit, came back and filled the gap, and it's just sitting here on the 200 day and just above it now.
And, you know, we have a $2 range.
There's just no range on the market.
The cues are holding in better.
Yeah, it's just kind of one of those...
days of rest here. I look for divergences in the market. And right now, what I'm noticing is,
you know, all the headlines coming out and the market's ignoring them, right? All the headlines now
on tariffs or they're doing this or that and this and that and all the stuff, the market is starting
to look beyond it. And that's what we need to happen. Now, that doesn't mean the all clears in.
And I agree with the Godfather, you know, we're looking for some better things in.
to come in to say where the all clear is in here but you know the vix which i thought would go into
the mid 30s has almost done a round trip at this point i mean the vix is signaling there's nothing
going on here at this point could we be in for surprise next week sure uh was today's data good no the
consumer continues to weaken and i think you know that's one of the big problems in this market
it's not just the tariffs the tariffs are going to hurt the consumer more it's the consumer continues to weaken
That said, if you're looking around, there's things to do today.
Not always are easy, not always are great, but there's things to do.
So, you know, not every trade works.
I jumped on crowd this morning, and the calls were 10 cents wide,
and next thing I know, they went to a buck,
and couldn't get it to move and end up taking a couple hundred dollar loss on that.
It just, the bid ask went a dollar wide, and that was me.
I didn't pay attention to what was going on.
But Crowd had an upgrade today, but Meta provided a bunch of nice trades this morning,
you know, popped all the way up to 633 before coming in.
Apples had some strength today.
I'm sitting in some Amazon calls to go up my Nvidia calls.
Google is in this gap, both in Amazon and Google are in gaps and looking stronger.
Tesla's run to high the day here as we're speaking right now.
You know, there's still, you know, names are still pushing up.
There's still some strength in this market here.
It's an inside day. There's still names moving.
Not a lot of great flow today.
Today was one of those days where the option flow, only 31 total words for me, usually
we're up in the 50s or 60s.
It's just not there today, not a lot of repeat flow.
But you know, it's an inside day in a bullish week.
So, you know, I look at it this way.
What do we get going in?
We got Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
We have data coming this week.
We're going to have GDP.
We have PCE.
We have mission consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
Yeah, quiet day is okay, right?
You know, quiet day is okay.
As long as we continue to sit here on the spy and hold the 221 day, I think we're good.
That said, I think Godfather brought up, we've left two big gaps behind us now on this move off the lows, which is typically bullish.
You know, but the market may want to come down and re-get them.
I'm comfortable sitting in some Nvidia and Amazon calls out into April, and we'll see where we go from here.
Other than this last like 30 minutes or so, it was nice to actually have some quiet from all the news headlines today.
There definitely weren't near as many.
So it was nice to have a constructive day, I feel like.
I agree with you there, Mike.
Yeah, I mean, I think that's what you're looking for.
You know, the administration is who he, you know, Trump is who he is.
They are who they are.
They're all going to be constantly in your face.
We're looking for the market to say, okay, we're going to move past beyond that and not care unless it's something big, right?
You know, like if we attacked Iran, I think Godfather hinted at that, that would be big.
But outside of that, you want to look at it just starting to just shrug this stuff up and say, this is a new norm.
We don't care anymore.
Let's just move on.
Absolutely.
Let's keep it going around the panel here.
Okay.
Michael, we've got you up here. I don't want to confuse Mike and Michael today, so we'll go Michael and Mike.
Michael, how are you? Great to have you on the spaces again. What thoughts do you have for us today?
Yeah, I mean, obviously the consumer confidence data was bad and probably not that surprising.
That's been the trend. It's just been steadily weakening.
I think one of the things I'm going to be keeping an eye on, I'm kind of curious to see what
The management at Lulu has to say when they report earnings later this week because, you know,
they obviously skew to a much better demo. So the negative comments that we've heard,
management of several retailers make with respect to the mid and lower end consumers,
budgets being completely stretched, how their budgets are exhausted before month end, how they're downsizing,
their purchases, things like that, I'll be curious to see how meaningfully that affects the more
discretionary spend. We've also seen that the inflation expectations have been rising.
I actually was thinking of getting long silver futures yesterday, but was kind of looking at the
commodity channel and thought I would hold off. That proved to be a mistake. Obviously, it's up 2% today,
and that's a little bit.
alarming. I think the GDP data isn't going to be that meaningful in the sense that,
you know, a lot of the policy prescriptions that the current administration has promoted are
clearly, as I think I've said on previous live streams, are clearly targeted towards trying
to manage GDP in an environment where you're cutting government spending. And I think, you know,
all the prior speakers mentioned that, uh,
government spending has been a big contributor on both the employment front and the GDP front.
And as I've also previously mentioned, if you pair spending to get to the deficit levels that Bessent believes you can get to and that he's targeting,
and I think that most people are targeting, you know, 3% of GDP or so, that withdrawing that much government spending is certainly enough.
to put us into an either stagnant GDP number or actually a slightly negative one.
You know, 2% GDP growth being about 600 billion and the deficit being 2 trillion
and 3% number being somewhere in the neighborhood of 900 and then $350 billion of incremental
interest expense as a result of maturing debt over the course of the next 18 months or so.
means that you really need to pair about $1.4 trillion in government spending
gets you to probably negative 2% GDP growth,
which is why I think they've been spending,
as I've also previously mentioned,
so much time and attention on tariffs.
Although I did think that the comments coming out of India today
were kind of interesting in the sense that they indicated
that they were going to lower tariffs considerably,
to sort of match on the reciprocal side,
bringing a lot of existing tariffs
that probably run in the 25 to 30% down to zero.
So I think folks who are looking ahead to April 2nd
might want to pay attention to what leadership
of other countries are saying
with respect to tariffs ahead of that date
because it seems like they are,
they're not trying to turn this into a global tariff battle.
So those who are worried about
Howley smooth in, you know, collapsing global trade as a result of this, should probably
pay attention to those comments and realize that in some cases, it won't be as bad as would
be expected. Yeah. So that's what I think we ought to be keeping our eyes on through the
end of the week is the inflation expectations, kind of like silver here, maybe the silver miners as well.
and keeping a very close eye on the discretionary spending.
Yep, Michael, and while you were talking, Trump made a comment right now.
He said that April 2nd is going to be Tariff Day, and he said he has them all set already.
That was the most recent. It just came out right now.
So ongoing talks from the current president around that tariff.
It was interesting to see India lowering some tariffs.
Let's keep going around the panel here a little bit.
David, we have you as a guest up here today.
Great to have you on stage.
We'd love to get some of your thoughts around what you're seeing out there in the market
or anything else you've heard spoken on.
Yeah, thank you very much to talk for the wonderful space, evidently.
I think the panel is fairly pertinent here.
Just bringing a bit of macro discussions here.
I think that on what Michael was just saying earlier, right, I think personally, and I would
actually be curious, Michael's perspective here, my treasury yields and the slowing down in the
rise of treasury yields.
probably outweigh the actual inflationary fears, right?
Obviously, now when we're looking at GDP growth and consumer sentiment,
that we see a fair decline within consumer sentiment and both the GDP growth,
if we go back to like the Atlanta Fed GDP now,
estimates has roughly fallen from the last time I checked roughly 2.8%.
So it's in line to what Michael was presuming.
But I think because of pre-tariff discussions and after post-terrists,
if we see the implementations of tariffs,
It's mainly the actual yield environment that's going to be the main concern outside of inflationary fears and inflation expectations.
Obviously, if we go to like Fed policy, we know that there's going to be a hold on potential rate cuts coming into play.
Obviously, we know that the current future projections for rate cuts throughout the years is lowered and roughly only two are priced and currently within the market.
Which isn't surprising, but evidently I'm going to bring in the big caveat here.
It's mainly the job market that's going to be the big function towards why the Fed would actually create a less restrictive environment.
Currently, we are more restrictive as Treasury yields would suggest, obviously, with Fed funds.
And so by virtue, if we do see a decline in unemployment or increase in unemployment and
a decline of new job listings and so forth, then by virtue the Fed would have to actually
implement a less restrictive policy.
And I think that that's the big backdrop that we're worried throughout the next few quarters
is essentially how is the employment data going to come out, right?
Evidently, we've seen new hires actually reduce themselves.
Unemployment hasn't necessarily increased to a point where it's worrisome, but there's
some bifurcation within that data.
So that needs to be audited in the respects that we need to keep an eye in that term, right?
Again, I'm going to jump into the dollar.
The dollar obviously remains slightly firm in its current range.
And as U.S. dollar demand continues to rise, then by virtue, I don't see it too.
too large of compression there.
So we'll see once tariffs come into play and we'll see how that dynamic actually manifests
itself within the market, evidently.
Now, if we bring it into like the market conditions currently, I think that this is a completely
normal reaction.
We were obviously overextended throughout the year and by virtue of market, like market dynamics,
like the inverse relationship between years.
yields and market prices are slightly coming into play and revitalizing themselves.
And for any options player here, it's a perfect day to be selling off premium versus
that of trying to buy off that premium.
So I'm going to leave it there.
If there's more to discuss, we can continue there.
yeah great thoughts david appreciate you joining us today and as always as the speakers are
making their points or getting their thoughts out if anybody has anything to add to the conversation
we love the open dialogue the back and forth in these spaces but in the meantime i want to continue
around the panel logical let's go over to you next please sir yeah hey um pretty boring day
which is good for once i i like boring i think we need a little bit more of boring
And what's really good is, you know, well, it's kind of a no action sort of day.
You know, we had a very big gap up yesterday.
And it's nice to see that we didn't give back all of that.
And so having a little bit of consolidation on the way up is good.
And yeah, just I'm very happy that we have a little less excitement.
I was actually able to get some work done.
But, yeah.
What I did notice today, which was pretty interesting, is, you know, there's been a lot of talk around the pharma ads, if they're getting banned on linear TV.
I saw maybe some options flow coming through on some of the big pharma names.
What's really interesting, and the options full of being bearish, of course, put-bought-put buying and whatnot, we don't know if that's actually going to go into effect.
Honestly, I wouldn't be against it, considering some of those ads are crazy obnoxious.
But what I am noticing is Magnite, Pubmatic, and the trade desk all are up three to six percent today.
That to me is signaling that, you know, it's probably like a pair trade, right?
You got to short the pharma names and you got along the ad tech names because this could be a big tailwind for connected TV.
So if those ads have to come off of linear TV, then, you know, they're going to have to spend that money somewhere and it's going to have to be through more directed advertisement.
And yeah, so now you're seeing, you know, all those ad tech names catch a bid, which is really nice.
Yeah.
I've been talking about how that's one sector that I've been buying the dip heavily in.
I'm very cautious because, you know, if there is a true economic slowdown, then, you know,
we've already been hearing anecdotal stories that, you know, certain companies and are pulling back their marketing spend.
And that makes sense if they're concerned about slowing growth, then they don't want to cut expenses and marketing budgets are typically first to get cut.
The ad sector is very cyclical.
So, you know, I'm very, I'm highly paranoid about that, but
If we don't get that kind of slow down or if it's tariff driven, which I think it is,
and if the tariffs end up being not as bad as assumed, then we just priced in a whole lot of
downside.
And many of these names, you're talking 40, 50, 60 percent in the matter of the last four weeks.
And to me, you know, if it turns out that, you know, tariffs are kind of not a big deal,
marketing budgets get reinstated.
you know coast is clear then you know you're you're probably going to see the ad cycle continue
you're going to see a lot of these names that are down so much be some of the biggest uh winners of
2025 from this for this point forward so i'm just looking forward uh to see you know how that all plays out
I think that if the ad cycle is not over, and I know I'm talking a lot about these because I think that they could be the best opportunities on the market today.
But it, of course, is dependent on kind of the macro backdrop and all that stuff.
So, you know, if Coast is clear, I mean, Reddit, 50% haircut, trade dust, 60% haircut.
And, you know, the trade desk was a little bit more company-specific as well on top because they, you know, missed on the quarter, which is atypical for that company.
But you usually see 50, 60, 70% drawdowns when we're at the peak of the ad cycle.
And so to me, it feels like, you know, upside versus downsides from these prices after such a big drawdown in some of these names.
it's, you know, it's pretty favorable to the upside.
So, yeah, even if, yeah, so I think we're pricing in the end of that cycle,
and if that's not the case, these are going to rip.
But we'll see. Outside of that, you know, I've been talking a lot about, you know, biotex and whatnot.
Spray, which is SPRY, ARS pharmaceuticals, had a good earnings report last week.
Highs of the day today. Nice to see.
There's just like random little pockets that are doing pretty good.
And I do think in what we've been talking about lately, or not lately, for the last year on these spaces, is you got to be a stock picker.
And I'm happy to see that, you know, maybe active is going to.
be a lot more important moving forward. I think, you know, buying Spy and just chilling, you know,
has worked so well for the last 16 years, but it would be nice to see to, you know, for active
managers to be rewarded after doing a lot of work. But we'll see. You know, Spy is very difficult
to outperform on a long-term basis. If you're not somebody who is like really dedicated to this,
then sitting in Spy, you'll end up with,
very, very good results over the long term.
But yeah, I mean, I think that the passive trade has gone pretty far, but
Uh, last comment I wanted to make was around, let me see.
Oh, uh, one earnings that I'm watching this week is Braise.
It's a software company back above the 200 day moving average today.
I've talked about this one a lot, ticker is BRZE.
Uh, I entered some April calls last week.
Um, those are up very nicely, um, clearly as this stock is ripped along with the rest of the market, but...
I'm trying to keep a decent size of those just to be able to exercise them if the earnings go well.
So, you know, sometimes I like to do these things, you know, short-dated calls into the earnings so that I can risk a certain amount of capital.
And, you know, if the earnings go my way, then I can exercise and have a position and ride that up.
And then if it doesn't, then it is what it is.
And I've already began trimming some of the excess contracts that I picked up.
I'm planning to go into earnings with just a core amount that I'm willing to exercise.
So yeah, that one's also near the highs of the day today.
So very nice.
Yeah, we'll see.
I think a lot of my thesis right now for a lot of these dip buys were driven by the idea that
add budgets hopefully stay intact.
Maybe we got a small scare.
And we priced in far too much downside in the near term.
We'll see.
Ariel, let's go over your direction next.
If you don't mind, how was your day in the market?
Good.
It was actually a fairly quiet day.
I have just been sitting in some of these energy names.
And I've kind of been hoping that some of them just pause for a little bit longer.
You know, it's something like CVX just seemingly green every single day for the last,
you know, seven, eight sessions.
Same with, you know, EQT, AR, LB, WMB, a few names that we talked about last week.
It's just, you know, to me, there seems to be still a bit of rotation into the oil and gas space.
I don't know, you know, how long that's going to maintain.
But today's seen, you know, very muted day.
Yesterday felt like a bit of...
Either short covering, you know, whether it be in a name like Tesla.
I mean, even a name like AMD, Palantir.
I thought the movements yesterday were awesome.
You know, Palantir getting back above all key moving averages.
You know, very impressive.
And then, you know, Bitcoin continues to hold in fairly well.
I would personally like to see it kind of get back above.
the area where it broke down from, about 92,000.
But we can't ignore MSTR, which is effectively the group's leader.
Again, back above all key moving averages.
So there are some positives that we can work with in this market.
You know, if you're just an active trader.
You know, but my issue is a simple one.
It's just, you know, the semiconductor space, which has been, you know, one of your leading groups for the last two years.
It's not really acting well still.
You know, if you looked at AVGO today or Marvell or MU.
They continue to live below their 200 day.
Not so much AVGO, but it is a bare flag.
You know, even the parallels, you know, with like Dell isn't acting all that well.
Obviously, SMC, I've been a dog for about a year now.
The group itself's not acting the best.
So it's, you know, one less thing to trade.
But on the flip side of that, you know, we had semi-cundar, sorry, cybersecurity names act great today.
PanW, Z-Scaler, and Crowdstrike.
So there is, you know, it's seemingly like where money is leaving some places, you know, it's going into others, which is, again, that is still the lifeblood of a bull market.
Right.
If this 10% correction turns out to be just another, you know, kind of run-of-the-mill 10% correction, then, you know, I think, you know, the market is probably set up to do well.
I, you know, it seems fairly obvious that we're, you know, at the start potentially of an oversold rally.
So how much further we go from here, I think as anybody's guess, today felt pretty clear.
pretty tentative, you know, there wasn't, you know, outside of Apple, for instance, you know,
and maybe even just Tesla a little bit. I didn't think anything, you know, really shine today.
It's just a little bit of digestion of yesterday's gains. Again, cybersecurity is acting well.
You know, you know, and for me, the energy space continues to look pretty constructive.
You know, I've been sitting in a name AEM for the last few weeks and, you know, it's up a percent and a half today.
You know, gold, silver, again, copper.
I don't remember exactly who just mentioned them.
But yeah, commodities seems to be the place that is getting some of that rotational love.
And, you know, it does make a bit of sense when Trump says, you know, we're bringing manufacturing back home.
that seems like it would benefit commodities, so it doesn't seem, you know, out of the ordinary.
So, you know, for me, it's just kind of being, being a little bit patient in this moment.
Just kind of taking a group by group, you know, what groups are acting well, what groups aren't
acting well, and, and, you know, not falling in love with, you know, prior leaders.
You know, I remember it was Stock Talk who said it last week and, you know, I did kind of
you know,
marinate on what he said a little bit more last week.
And he's right,
in essence, right?
The market, you know,
if we go out,
you know,
a few more years,
your apples and your Microsofts
and your invidias of the world,
they're going to be just fine.
But I guess the question becomes,
you know,
you know, how long do they struggle for?
And if they continue to struggle, is there enough rotation in the market,
whether it be financials or energy or cybersecurity and other places, software,
you know, that can kind of lift the, you know, kind of pull their weight
to make up the difference of what maybe some of the Mag 7 names might not be doing.
You know, with that said, a name like Tesla could have very easily put in the Tim Wall's bottom.
You know, that's, there's so much negative sentiment around the name.
So, you know, if stocks really did just go through their ordinary 10% pullback and, you know,
some people were daring enough to buy, you know, the dips and, you know, even the dips on maybe
some of these ad spend names.
But again, you know, we're talking about money going into some places and leaving.
And then again, the drug manufacturers today.
And I looked at all of them.
I don't.
I mean, all of them look rough today.
From Lilly to Johnson and Johnson to Abby to Novo,
Astrozanica, Merck.
I mean, they're all bad.
You know, and some of them are even living below their 200 days.
So again, from a technical perspective, you know,
it's just we're losing another group, you know,
where Abby was looking so good just a few weeks ago,
it's getting absolutely crushed today.
It seems like the assumption here is, you know,
There's going to be less money being spent on ads because I guess they might not even be able to be played on television or they'll have to find a new new way to advertise themselves.
So, you know, we'll kind of see how deep that those cuts run.
But for now, for me in particular, I do just have to wait for setups.
And, you know, I do have lungs open, but they are in the energy space.
You know, my only software stock is a toast.
Right. So it's like, you know, I can hardly find, and I've owned toast since September. So, you know, trying to find my way into, you know, software stocks that will just trend and trend cleanly and not just come back on you and round trip two, three days later. It's pretty difficult.
And again, when your semiconductor sector, you know, being one of your biggest groups out there is struggling, you know, and everything from whether it be MU to Marvell to TSM to, you know, AVGO and even your NVIDIA still living below your 200 day.
You know, I don't want to try and just call a bottom and pick a bottom and say this is it.
And it's going to start to try and hire from here.
You know, I kind of let the institutions do that first.
And then, you know, stocks will consolidate, you know, for a few days, a few weeks.
And then it'll create, you know, a low risk range.
It'll create a low risk range for me to participate in.
So, yeah.
Yeah, that's just kind of my thinking is just, you know, be patient.
Let stocks set up and develop.
And then, you know, when things are ready to go higher, it won't just be, you know, a handful of stocks like cybersecurity.
It'll be a bunch of semis.
It'll be softwares.
It'll be energies.
And personally, I don't really care where, you know, the strength is going to come from.
So and let me just see.
It looks like, you know, and even, you know, you got your materials here recently, you know,
not acting all that great.
You know, how that affects even home builders.
Home builders still continue to lag.
So there's just like a, it's such a split market.
You've got some things that are weak, some things that are strong,
some things that are hanging in there.
And for me, I'm going to continue to kind of, you know,
err on the side of caution in terms of just getting too aggressive and you know if the market's going to
continue higher there will be way more setups within the particular groups that i'm looking at and there
just isn't that right now so you know patience on my end um and if you know if that if this recent
bottom was the bottom then you know over the next few weeks we should start to get a lot more answers
go ahead and jump at mike
So you said it's oversold.
You know, we're kind of actually overbought now.
And I know a lot of people don't pay attention to the sentiment like I do, but...
The oscillator on the NASDAQ is, you know, was over plus 60 and on the ones I track, we're actually getting overbought off this rally on some of this stuff already, believe it or not.
So we're really no longer oversold.
If anything, we're either slightly overbought or getting into that spot where we have problems.
So markets kind of change gears here real quick.
By the way, AMD is having a hell of a rally right now going back for highs of the day.
you know, I see it, you know, the market, you know, we'll see what it's going to do.
Again, I am bullish this week going in, but we're not over, we're not oversold anymore.
We're not even close.
That's the one thing I would add.
Up other notes there. Toast. I personally am a shareholder of toast. I've liked it for a while, but I saw Josh Brown came out with that pick today that hit the newswire on toast there that Ariel was speaking about. And let's keep it moving around Wolfie. How are you today, sir?
I'm good. What's up?
Oh, not much.
I was watching.
Invidia just made a new high.
Tesla made a new high.
IWM made a new low.
We have a weird divergence between tech to the S&P to small caps right now.
But what's on your mind today?
More of the same, more of just an echo chamber kind of.
I talked about it yesterday.
Just trying to be tactical, trying to take advantage of.
certain types of levels, certain types of moves that I'm looking for, look for asymmetric risk reward.
We got some selling last week on the back of the Fed.
Once the Fed came and went, the only real thing we had to worry about was, you know,
quarterly OPEX.
And then on the back of that, there was just like this window.
I was fortunate enough to pick up some stocks last week between that Wednesday and Friday.
And previous to that as well.
But a lot of today for me has just been taking profits, cutting stuff.
And then.
you know, everybody's favorite degenerate,
Jesse Livermore, buy, right, sit tight.
You know, I was fortunate enough to get into Tesla at the right time,
just kind of sitting in it.
But took some profits on quite a bit today,
sold United Airlines,
cut,
it went like 10% on the equity,
off the 200 day,
into the 20 day,
took profits there,
sold the remaining meta today that I had,
just because I,
have too much to watch and I don't like watching too much.
So cut meta on the second day to cut the rest of it, cut some yesterday into the,
into the MA as well, at 620 level.
You know, had a nice move on Tempest.
It was like really aggressive move.
So I booked...
Probably like 60% of it.
You know, just across the board, just taking profits.
Hymns another one just took for a mean reversion bounce.
ASTS sold some.
You know, just trying to book profits when I get them.
And then trying to stay attuned to, you know,
secondary moves or follow-throughs.
Like Mike's been mentioning AMD.
I took a small position, AMD, nothing crazy.
But, you know, obviously when you take these small positions, in hindsight, you look at them and you go, man, why didn't I take a real position, right?
So now I'm sitting in that weird spot where, you know, I'm happy to getting some kind of money out of it, but kind of regret not having...
full-sized position or a regular size position in it.
And then as far as Tesla's concerned, I'm just kind of paying attention.
I think the pain trade, you know, based on some of the stuff that I see online is people
wanted that gap to get retested or that gap to get filled.
I think the pain trade now is just like, you know, flush the chase and hold it.
All right.
So flushed off the open.
held that 270 level and now we're making highs a day pushing through that 200 a
I think it's really constructive for you know just a pain trade um on Tesla to the upside
and I just kind of want to see that keep going um if it got really aggressive it could push that
all the way up to that
100 day, which is around
350 currently. I don't
particularly see that it's going to get that
aggressive, but even to the 50 day, it's about
310, 315.
So I'm just kind of trying
to make sure that I'm
not over levered across the board
and then just kind of
staying involved in the names that I want to be involved in.
I think some of the talk around
these minor names, these metal names,
these material names and things like that are pretty instructive
for whether it be like
you know, a hedge protection, whether it be inflation protection, whether it be a dollar protection trade, whatever the case may be, I think they're important to pay attention to.
You know, I same kind of thing about AMD with Exxon, had some calls for August on.
off of the 112 breakout.
It's been just every day.
It's just up,
but it's like not up significantly enough
or aggressively enough,
excuse me,
to where,
you know,
you kind of get that flush and refill.
It's like just a slow and steady grind,
which is great,
but I,
you know,
I'd much prefer some consolidation
and some of these things
so I can get some,
more ads involved.
And then outside of that,
just want to pay attention to any of these
headlines, any of these
themes that I like to pay attention to.
I know, like, we've talked about some of these
Um, so like Stocktox favorite, uh, Embraer is he mentions it pretty much daily.
You know, a similar thing, but more domestic has just been GE Aerospace.
It's, uh, been aggressive since they did their spinoffs.
Um, moves been really astounding.
It's like a five X in, in the last, uh, two years.
But making 52 week highs, all-time highs today, kind of pay attention to that because I think, you know, um,
people are starting to
to my opinion, people are starting to take a look at like Boeing as a possible
setup that I'm not saying to do the same thing GE does, but it's a possible setup for,
you know, some sort of leadership to the upside. So I'm just kind of paying attention.
So, you know, the, in terms of paired, in terms of pairing that, right, like the,
that you guys were talking about yesterday, I think it was Stockton, I was talking about,
people are pairing the idea of,
Long Boeing short LMT, which just to echo him, he didn't co-sign or anything like that.
But, you know, LMT today found that support at that 420 levels.
So I just kind of want to pay attention there.
And then outside of that, again, on the other side for me, it's like a barbell year.
It's, you know, I want to have value and...
you know, yield stuff on one side and then I don't have momentum, idiosyncratic stuff on the other.
So now on the value side, I'm taking a look at like some of these names that have come into levels that are pretty intriguing for me.
So I'm taking a look at stuff like Campbell's Soup.
Very boring names, right?
But coming back into levels and then some of the names that have run up on the back of,
that value slash yield trade.
Some of them are failing on the back of some of this pharma headline stuff that you guys are talking about.
So flattening out there.
But mostly just kind of staying tactical, just staying observant.
I didn't put on a trade today.
I was just trimming stuff, adjusting stuff.
So yeah, it's pretty much where my head's at.
Outside of that, want to pay attention to that.
Friday headline, want to pay attention to any Trump headlines, and don't want to stay.
The one thing I'll add is for stuff like this, like obviously, we're going to get a lot of
aggressive moves.
Like Mike just said, believe it or not, on the NASDAQ are a little bit overbought, right?
Like, you get these aggressive moves from one side of the vote to the other, and I think
it's really important in a market like this to just...
Stay cognizant of that because if you if you've like feel like you've missed something,
you're going to get another opportunity.
Even if it's not the same stock that you want to have an opportunity in, you will get other
opportunities as they come and things can reverse very quickly from one side to the other.
And so I'm trying to stay cognizant of that and say level-headed enough because you could
you can.
You could be death by a thousand cuts because you just take shots and get stopped out over and over again.
Or the other thing that could happen is you could be late to the party.
And then the move can flip back the other way because it was just like a relief rally or something like that.
And then now you're trying to hedge that or trying to spread out of it or do something else.
So trying to stay in that mindset of...
having a list of things, whether it be sectors, names, whatever, at spots that I'm interested in,
and then just really trying to be disciplined about, if I missed it, I missed it, right?
Like I said, I had a small position to MD, nothing crazy, kind of got away from me.
And now, like, I'm not going to add until I get some sort of consolidation or until I have some sort
of confirmation or something like that.
But, you know, just trying to stay mindful of that as well.
I think that's a very important practice.
Yeah.
At 13 minutes or so to the bell here, Godfather saw your hand go up there.
See if you want to jump in on something you just heard from Wolf and then we'll hit the rest of the panel.
Yeah, no, not really from Wolf, but there's a couple things I failed to mention that are on my radar.
Number one, we've got the Hood Gold Summit tomorrow.
I know some bulge bracket firms have got targets in the sort of $90 range on this thing, calling this a key catalyst for the stock.
Like a lot of these names, you know, here's a name that's come $25 off of its high.
It's bounced back, you know, 13 of those dollars.
There's really...
no move in the stock ahead of this event, which I find interesting.
Obviously, high growth stock.
There's some pretty high expectations with respect to new product launches,
especially around their wealth management side.
And, yeah, I'd be interested to see how that trades coming out of that,
whether that gets sold because it seems like most of these events are getting sold.
Follow that on on Thursday.
You've got Analyst Day for Bros, which is another...
high growth name, you know, similar type situation.
Stock got all the way up to $87,
it dropped $27, down to $60,
and made back about 10 of that.
So they're all kind of, you know,
halfway back.
And I think now is a question of, you know, are people committed or where they're just
trading this thing, you know, off the bottoms and bounces.
So I'm watching those two.
Thursday after the market, there's a couple of interesting earnings that I'm watching.
AGX, a company called Argan, their leader in power plant development in Texas, which is where
a lot of the data center action is.
This stock's 20% move.
at its last earnings on the 5th of December, they should, again, by all accounts, be really solid numbers and a good read-through in terms of CAPEX for data centers, but does it get sold?
Which is what we saw. We saw great numbers out of PSIX, small cap name that just recently upgraded from OTC to NASDAQ stock went from 29 to 37.
you know, back at 31, almost all got sold off.
Another name that's along those lines in terms of a second derivative look into data centers
is the small TSS, which reports again after the market on Thursday, and this is, you know,
servers and racks and integration for AI data centers.
Those would be interesting names to watch and the reactions to their numbers, I think, will provide some good tells.
So I just wanted to get those out.
Yeah, great call out on especially that hood.
That is where Evan is...
was just traveling to today. He's just landing recently. We heard him at the beginning of this space,
and Gavin has already been out there as well. So excited to see what comes out of that.
Definitely with Robin Hood and Vlad and see what they have cooked up out there.
Let's make sure we hit everyone up here on the panel. Gary, I know that you jumped up here.
Would love to get some of your thoughts into the mix.
Oh, I was just listening, and then you invited me to talk. So I'll make something up.
I want stock access to signal because if we're planning wars on an IM strategy, just on an IM platform, I wonder if Trump got a nasty phone call from Zuckerberg saying, why aren't you guys using WhatsApp?
I listened to a great podcast today with Gene Munster on it, and he was talking about how great Elon did with Twitter about cutting 70% of the staff, but four timesing the actual revenue of the, not the revenue, but the actual profits of the company.
I'm literally, I listen to Wolfie and, and, you know, a couple of the others.
I'm literally not doing anything.
I think this is a tradable bounce where if you have some stocks, I got asked about Broadcom
today from one of my subscribers who said, hey, I bought with you last year, or I guess he's
been trading it.
He's up 100%.
I think it's trading around 190 right now.
It's sitting right at support.
And I don't want to sell that thing until it goes up to 220.
But...
It is traded completely round.
The last earnings, the CEO said, oh, my God, we've got crazy demand for our chips and blah, blah, blah, and said we're going to get four times the revenue from one customer, their top customer or something.
The stock shut up to almost, I think, 2.30, 240, and it's made a round trip.
So I don't want to sell it because on the next earnings, they may say something similar.
Right.
I don't think we're seeing a huge
CPEX pullback, but
if the Baba see
I think a CEO or CET
chairman is right,
maybe we do see some pullback. So I'm just
sitting pretty on some gains. I want to sell
Apple around 240. I think that one's going to go back to
240. All they did was
it's a damn event and the thing goes up about 1 or 2%.
So I
I'm just sitting here.
I think you're in a tradable market in a range until we get past April 2nd.
And I don't think any news, any catalyst that you have for April 2nd, I can't imagine
the good news I think is priced into the market for this April 2nd.
I think the bad news is just not.
So that's my thoughts.
Appreciate you jumping up here, Gary, and sharing that with the crew today.
And Mr. Stocksniper, I don't believe we've heard from you just yet.
I know you posted, I don't know if anybody here is trading GameStop, but I know GameStop has earnings, but I didn't know what else was on your radar today.
Well, to be honest, today was a very interesting day for me.
I had a couple of levels that I was specifically looking for and...
Um, the setups just weren't set in and you know, sometimes that happens, but I like to really stay disciplined, especially in markets like this. I didn't really take any trades at all today. Um, and again, I'm totally fine and totally satisfied with that. But, um, yeah, I do want to take a second and talk about GameStop earnings because it seems like, um, a lot of people are really interested in this one, but, um,
GameStop earnings, we're expecting a $2.36 move or 9.35% move.
Previous reactions we saw plus 7.58% reaction, minus 11.98% decreased, minus 39.38% minus 15.03.
And since the last report, GameStop is down 6.2%, which is nowhere near as bad as it seems to be.
But it seems like since the last report, that report is...
practically can't the reaction is practically canceled out but we're going into this one with
831,922 open interest um the word on the street is and i'm again i'm not i can't speak anything
confirmed but a lot of people are going to be looking for game stop to announce some kind of
bitcoin activity um on their earnings call we do know that they have dabbled in the gold space a
little bit but um yeah just wanted to put that all out there um game stop earnings is coming out i
believe at 405 um
Yeah, 405 p.m. today.
And yeah, that's pretty much all that I really got today.
Well, I think I told this on another space, but I opened up Facebook, one of the rare times I ever opened up that app.
And back home, apparently the GameStop in my hometown was closed for remodeling or something.
People were making fun of GameStop dying.
But we'll see.
We'll see if maybe they do innovate with all this cash that they've raised and things going on over there will be interesting.
Yeah.
Mr. Tariff Talk, you were quiet today on the tariff front anyway.
Oh, I'm back to more Tariff Talk now with the PIN tweet.
I know. I saw that. That's why I was kind of bringing that up.
But I wanted to lead that over to you and lead you into the conversation here.
See what's on your mind today.
Yeah, look, we have a lot of smart guys up here with a lot of different opinions.
And, you know, I think markets like this where there's a lot of volatility sort of draws out more of...
these kind of theoretical stances or people trying to project out what's going to happen.
I say this all the time. I'll say it again. My process is very simple. I pay attention to price,
volume, the major moving averages, and a handful of stocks that I pick. I'm a stock picker at my core. I don't
trade the indexes all too much. I do hedge using the indexes, but I don't trade them to the
upside. I don't have them as core long positions in my portfolio. I have a basket of individual
stocks across many different sectors that I change in and out regularly. So that process may
or may not reflect the way that you in the audience trade or invest. That's important to keep
in mind. I brought that up yesterday.
Um, we retook the 200 day at moving average yesterday.
We held it today.
As far as I'm concerned, that's incrementally positive.
Until we give it back, um, you know, then we can start talking about the idea that, you know,
maybe this was a dead cat rally into the moving averages and, you know, now we're just going to get
stuffed at head lower.
We're not quite there yet.
I actually didn't mind the action today.
I thought it was digestive.
Um, you had some nice pushups from the mag seven names.
The healthcare trade got tossed.
Plenty of people have covered that already
on why that happened
around pharmaceutical advertising.
It kind of goes to show
what I was saying yesterday, which is that
In the early innings of these 10% corrections,
at least if we're using the last five or six of them as any example,
there tends to be a semblance of rotation.
In other words, it looks like the action is rotating.
You have four or five sessions where that's happening.
And rarely do those rotational leaders actually hold any sustainable leadership position
over weeks or months?
That's very, very rare.
And this correction is another example of that where...
You know, healthcare was up.
I think XLV was up 8.5% year-to-date at the peak about a week ago.
I think it's now up like 4% year-to-date.
Those numbers may not be exact, but somewhere around that,
it's given back about half of its year-to-date gains in about a week.
Same thing with a lot of the other consumer staple names
that made strong moves in the early innings of this correction
and have since tapered off.
So I don't think there's any clear...
rotational mechanism that we can lean on and say, look, the money's going here, or, you know, the money's going in this particular industry from the previous leaders of last year.
I don't think we can make that conclusion.
As least not as far as my process is concerned.
I watch all these stocks and all these industries on an individual basis.
That's kind of like what I do all day is price action observation, especially when I'm not trading a lot.
And I have not been trading a lot in this market.
My quantity of trades are a fraction of what they were last year.
And that's by design.
Because in my view, and again, this is according to the way I trade, environment matters a lot more than the setups.
And...
in a very bullish environment.
I throw a lot of darts in an environment like this.
I'm a little bit more cautious.
And so, yeah, look, we retook the 200 day.
We continue to hold it.
That's constructive.
Until that changes, then we can have that conversation.
For now, I'm not going to guess whether or not this rally is going to be short-lived
or whether or not this is a dead cat bounce.
In the broader picture...
I think some important developments happened this weekend, if you will.
I think the news out of India was maybe a little bit overlooked.
There was two reports out this weekend that the Indian government is considering cutting tariffs on up to half of U.S. imports.
And that's a response to...
on the impact of tariffs.
And they found that cutting tariffs on U.S. imports to avoid reciprocal tariffs on those goods for themselves could save them from a trade balance standpoint about $45 billion annually in goods in terms of targeted goods from those tariffs.
So I think that that's a positive development, especially if more countries follow through on that.
But nonetheless, Trump continues to stand his ground on the idea that those tariffs are coming on April 2nd and that there's going to be very little wiggle room, so on and so forth.
But there was another piece out from the Atlantic this weekend as well.
And I know a lot of people are like, oh, you know, the Atlantic is fake news, yada, yada, yada.
I'm not referring to the story that came out that everyone's talking about, about the messages that leaked.
I'm actually referring to your story.
where they interviewed J.D. Vance and cited that he said, yeah, I do think the messaging has been
sort of a problem. So there's a good argument for us to maybe delay this a bit further work on the
messaging and explain to the public why this is important. Now, people may see that quote and be like,
whatever, like he's just saying something. To me, that was a very significant quote. Because to me,
what that says is, is that
Yes, Trump may say they don't care about the markets.
And the White House has said that several times.
Like, we're not looking at the markets.
You know, this is short-term pain for long-term gain, yada, yada, yada, yada.
But I think that quote from JD says that they are looking at the markets
and they care about the fact that the markets are responding this way to the messaging.
And on that point specifically is what I pinned in the tweet above, which some of you might have missed.
But it's a Deutsche Bank note from this morning that came out.
where Deutsche Bank said, look, we know sentiment is really negative.
We know the markets have been scared of these tariffs,
but based on our surveys and our being Deutsche Bank,
the markets have no idea what's going to happen.
And I think the results of this survey are very, very enlightening, actually.
If you go click the image at the top that I pit,
you can see where these respondents landed.
And you can see that there's no consensus view, right?
You have between 10 to 20% of respondents,
arguing that you were going to see anywhere from 5 to 10% universal tariffs.
That's a huge difference.
And you can see the respondents on each tick.
5%, you have 10 to 20%, 6%, you have 10 to 20%, 6% you have 10 to 20%, 7, you have 10 to 20%.
So there's absolutely no consensus view here.
Markets are ranging anywhere from 10% tariffs on China to 70% tariffs on China.
11% of, sorry, 8% of respondents landed in that category for 70% tariffs on China.
Like what?
So simple graph, but also very simply demonstrates that the markets are lost, absolutely lost, like a puppy dog when it comes to these tariffs.
Nobody has any idea what is coming.
Forget about on April 2nd, but by the end of the year when it comes to this policy,
now you have to ask yourself, is that by design or is that poor messaging?
I don't know the answer to the question to that.
What I would lean towards is it is poor messaging.
I think probably what happened is that...
Lutnik and Bessent were not on the same page as Trump maybe initially.
And then as they sort of discovered his view on this issue through Trump's public remarks,
they then moved to compensate for that and justify that view because obviously they work for him.
They're appointed by him.
And so...
I think that's probably the birthplace of the uncertainty in the messaging, and I should say the lack of the clarity in the messaging.
If I had to guess, do I know for certain that's what it is? No, obviously not. I'm not in their heads. The alternative is that
that this is uncertainty by design, which is that Trump wants to create this level of uncertainty in markets, to create weakness, to bring yields down, bring rates down, so on and so forth, which is an argument that people have been making.
I don't know if that argument holds any water or not. Some people are really gung-ho about it.
Whatever. If you want to believe that, that's fine.
But regardless of which of those two views you take, whether you take the view that this is an intentional attempt to inject uncertainty in the market, or you take the view that this is just poor messaging.
Either way, this type of these type of data points, this survey, for example, from Deutsche Bank, help illustrate you that the markets don't know.
There are cohorts of people in the markets that think this might happen on April 2nd.
There are other cohorts people in the market that think something else might happen entirely with a very different policy implication.
And so all of that being said, really the, I guess the illustration of the last three points is for me to say that I don't think that there is anything particularly priced in.
I think the main thing priced in here is just fear.
And playing off of fear is hard because it's hard to know when the inflection points in that sentiment is going to come.
You know, if you're looking at, I don't know, I'll use an example here.
Let's say inflation expectations.
When the market was trading off inflation expectations, which it was for the better part of six, maybe eight months.
During that period in the markets, we could look at inflation data and say, oh, inflation data is softening.
Therefore, the selling in markets, you know, should see an impending reversal because the narrative that the markets are concerned about has softened.
That's a straightforward and it was an easy way to look at markets.
But during that period in markets, that was a very step-by-step way you could deduce the price action and feel comfortable about it and say, okay, okay, I get why the markets are going up.
Inflation expectations came down.
Same thing with the labor data, right?
Like when we were in that sweet spot of the labor market where slightly soft labor data was leading to a bit in markets,
you can make the same step one, step two, step three conclusion where you say, okay, labor data is a little soft, which means the Fed isn't going to be as incrementally confident about the economy, which means we're going to get rate cuts, which means risk assets are going to respond positively.
That trade worked for about the better part of six months as well.
So...
When those narratives were at play, it was clear, it was easy on how markets were going to respond.
It was straightforward.
This tariff situation is not that because there's no data set that's going to print next week or next month that's going to indicate to us the severity of tariffs.
What we're going to have to rely on is messaging from the White House and what's going to.
responsive messaging from the other nations.
And that's a tricky data set to be relying on.
A, because there's going to be a ton of uncertainty,
there's going to be a lot of flip-flopping,
there's going to be a lot of public statements that are made
that don't lead to any action,
there's going to be a lot of actions that are taken
that don't necessarily have corresponding public statements.
And so it's a fucking mess, frankly.
And navigating that environment is much, much more difficult, which is why this market has been much harder to trade than the regimes of the past that I referred to,
where inflation expectations were the main concern or where labor data was the main concern.
We're sort of past that hump.
And now there's a new primary concern for the markets, which is how this is going to impact confidence, business sentiment, et cetera, into the end of the year.
So technically, I feel fine with the markets right now.
Like I said, re-took the 200-day holding it.
We'll revisit that if that changes.
Right.
From a macro standpoint, I think some things came out of over this weekend that actually made me more incrementally positive on the tariff narrative.
I expect messaging to improve, although that's a hopeful expectation.
I can't guarantee it'll happen.
I expect messaging to improve and us to see more clarity on messaging headed into the April 2nd deadline.
I also would, as my base case, expect other countries to follow suit.
with what India is attempting to do, which is lowering tariffs in advance of the deadline to both appease U.S. officials, but to also, you know, attempt to broker a deal on tariffs on their own goods as well.
So I expect both those things to happen. I think both those things are positive when it comes to the base case outcome, which is, I think, what people should be concerned about because I think that's what markets are playing off of.
Um, so if you were to say, you know, ask me Thursday of last week, I would say versus Thursday of last week to today, the base case outcome for terrorists has improved in my opinion.
Now, is that remarkably bullish and it means everything is going to go up in a straight line? No, probably not because like I mentioned, there's still a tremendous amount of uncertainty. Not everyone is on that page that I'm on, which is to say, hey, look, is it.
I actually feel a little bit better about the tariff situation.
Not everyone's there yet.
Because again,
there's a wide,
wide distribution,
a la that Deutsche Bank survey of expectations right now.
And there's a wide wide distribution of how to play off of those expectations,
what the right pair trades are to put on,
what to short,
what to long.
That's where the debate is.
And that's where the complication is.
And that's where reading markets gets difficult.
But,
yeah,
I feel fine about the markets here.
You know, I took a little bit of an L on DKNG today.
I opened a starter in that yesterday.
That thing peeled off today, so I cut that.
But I got that and everything worked.
GameStop did just say they are adding Bitcoin as a Treasury Reserve asset in their earnings report here.
Sorry to cut you off.
Go GameStop.
Yeah, I took a little bit of L on DK&G today, but nice move on Tesla.
Most of my names held up really well.
You know, Sorrow was up 2%.
Kratos is up 2%.
DRS is up 1.5.
Amazon up one.
EWG up, H.RTG, BHF up.
Yeah, so most of my names were green today,
which I'm fine with a little bit of a consolidation day in the markets.
Didn't do too much individually besides cut that DK&G position.
So, yeah, that's it for me today.
Okay.
See a couple of hands up.
I don't know who was first, but whichever one he was first, go for it.
Go ahead.
Thank David.
Yeah.
David, if you want to go ahead and jump in and I saw your hand was up and then we'll go over to stock sniper.
What I said was already covered.
You mentioned it.
It was the game sub news.
I had a feeling that's what it was going to be.
And we'll get your thoughts there too if you want to jump in on that stock sniper.
But David, let's go to your hand and see if you had anything to add there.
So I agree with a lot of what Stock Talk was mentioning relational to tariffs.
My main question to you, Stock Talk, was why did you have that reversion?
What data set created that reversion in the slightly more positive outlook when it comes to tariffs to continue on that point?
I'll let you answer that and then we'll continue with the tariff discussion.
Yeah, I wouldn't say it was data. It was more so, well, I mean, I guess you could phrase this as data, depending on your definition of data. But it was more so the commentary and the news that we got over the weekend, both from India, being more flexible on the reciprocal tariff front, looking to potentially make a deal ahead of those tariffs. And then the Atlantic's quote of J.D. Vance saying that.
He does believe the messaging can be improved.
And there's an argument to delay tariffs while the messaging is reworked, if you will.
So I think both of those stories made me incrementally positive.
But again, incrementally positive can change with one headline.
So I want to be, I want to emphasize that caution.
Thanks for that clarification.
Because I mean, I'm still net-net bearish when it comes to tariffs.
Evidently, when we're looking at the business environment, industries, corporations are all going to get compressed.
And for the next four years, right, implementations to new shifting fiscal policies is going to be fairly limited, right?
They will just accommodate the current policy.
And then from there, they like to suggest, and I think everyone in this room has heard this at nauseam,
but I'll just reiterate the point, right, to suggest that I'm going to reshor manufacturing complexes
that take roughly up to 10 years for an industry to actually be appropriately built out.
And a four-year presidential term is an erroneous concept.
As an industry, I wouldn't do such an action.
I would just simply wait until there's a new fiscal regime, and that way I could essentially now new
and navigate the new, let's say, policies that are going to be implemented.
So long story short, I think that when we're looking at the aggregate outcome, right,
most corporations outside of the United States that don't already have U.S.-based operations
and primarily have little international exposures, will have a form of margin compression.
Right.
to the stands that like to it's to be determined to see the extent of that margin compression
but long story short essentially we're still going to see that come into place so whether it's
a cutback in operational expenses which then leads to
my initial point that I had made earlier about employment,
because one of the main forms of operational expenses
that would be expediting the actual potential margin
compressions is layoffs, right?
That's evident.
We haven't seen an onsla of massive layoffs currently,
but when we're looking at the financial sector,
there has been significant cutbacks,
and there's suggestions that there's going to be more cutbacks.
And so by virtue, I'm still fairly net, net bearish
on tariff implications.
just by preview of what it does to the current industrial landscape and corporate landscape.
Yeah, I don't think there's a, I agree with you, by the way. I don't think there's a way to paint tariffs in the short term as economically positive. It would be almost impossible to do so if you're being objective. So I agree. I mean, in the short term, they are a headwind to price. They are headwind to price in terms of headwind to price going down. They're a headwind to business operations, consumer confidence, business confidence.
investing confidence, everything.
So yeah, compression and sentiment
generally leads to a compression in the real economy.
That's how it's always worked.
I don't expect it to be any different.
And it's part of why I brought up that Deutsche Bank survey.
I know a lot of people maybe misinterpreted my comments
about that in the audience, but I didn't bring that up to say,
hey, look, it's bullish that the market doesn't know
what's going to happen.
I actually brought that up to say the opposite.
It's uncertainty is not bullish.
You know, the fact that there is not a consensus view on what the impact of tariffs is going to be, that's not bullish.
You do not want the market to be confused and for 20% of survey respondents to be saying widely different things because...
That leads to a stall in investment.
And for people in the audience that maybe feel like this is,
this conversation's happening at like a higher tier level of economics,
it's not.
This is really just economics 101.
And if you want to break this down into like a simple vehicle for explanation,
we can do that.
So let's say in the audience,
you're a business owner and you own a multinational business and you have
$100 million allocated for investment this year.
and you made that allocation, your board made that allocation for CAPEX, let's say in Q4 of last year,
Q3 of last year.
Okay, your board signed off on it.
You guys are ready to spend $100 million this year.
Now, you guys have a board meeting or C-suite meeting at, you know, in the middle of January, early February this year, and you're like, hey, what the hell's going on with this tariff stuff?
Are there going to be 10% tariffs on China?
Are there going to be 20% tariffs on China?
Are they going to be universal?
Are they going to cover the goods that we sell?
Are they going to cover the goods that we import?
Are some of those goods going to be exceptioned?
What's going to happen with Canada and Mexico?
Are they going to sign a trade deal?
Are they actually going to get direct unilateral tariffs?
Are they only going to be reciprocal?
You see the point I'm making.
This level of uncertainty is going to inhibit your ability to spend capital confidently, right?
To have visibility to invest and spend capital.
So at a very simple level, that's what all of this noise in the markets has been here to date.
This idea that business operators, retail investors, even,
do not feel as confident allocating their money in an environment where they don't know
what's going to happen.
And that's really the crux of all market problems, is this idea of uncertainty becoming
a inhibitor to people making investment and purchasing decisions in the broader economy.
And so yes, I agree that that's still a concern.
Yes, my base case view on tariffs is also still bearish.
I don't think it's possible to have a bullish view on tariffs, frankly.
I think in the long term, yes, then there's an argument to be made.
And then we can get into the idea of like debating policy and whether or not in the long term tariffs will have a positive impact on the U.S. economy, that debate can be had.
And there's two sides to take that debate.
In the short term, in my view, there's no debate to be had.
And the short term likely leads to higher prices, lower business confidence, lower spending, lower investment, et cetera.
So, yep, I'm on the same page with you on that.
Yeah, and it's to be determined whether, like, long-term tariffs are going to be positive.
Like, I'm going to lay my boat in the camp that actually net net is going to potentially be more detrimental to the U.S. economic output.
Evidently, like, the argument for potential, like,
positivity, positive output when tariffs are in place is like in a four-year time span at the end of
Trump's administration.
So long story short, it's to be determined if that next administration is going to keep on with
the same footing.
But like if we're looking at the actual argument here, it's saying that I'm going to remove
that delegated economic activity from international economies.
I'm going to reshore that into my own economy.
And by virtue, we're essentially going to be positively functioning in that respect, right?
So U.S. indices are going to be, are going to bode to perform better because of that, especially if we have theoretically tax cuts and like we then support aggregate supply.
to just like to demonstrate what that means, right, for the audience.
Like there are two functions, right?
Either we support aggregate demand or we support aggregate supply.
Aggregate demand being encouraging spending
and essentially what we saw with the actual stimmy checks
from the prior administration,
meaning I'm going to inject capital to my consumers
and then the consumption of those consumers
are essentially going to positively function within the economy.
Evidently, that causes inflationary spirals, as we saw throughout 2020 all the way up to 2025.
And by supporting aggregate supply, it's saying I'm now going to support my actual economic landscape,
specifically my industries, my manufacturers, and then by virtue, they're going to be able to simply mitigate the actual potential compression that they're feeling within the...
potential tariff compression and essentially be able to support their actual supply chain.
And it's going to have less inflationary impacts towards the economy.
But at the end of the day, I think that it would create a dynamic where the U.S. has less
economic presence on a global standing.
It's still to be determined.
This is a speculation on my end.
But at the end of the day, I think that that would come into play.
And then it would slowly remove that crux that the United States plays on an international landscape,
which in theory might be not as beneficial, right?
The U.S. hegemonic regime is fairly important here.
Sorry, I was taking a little walk, and there was a dog that was barking there.
No worries, no worries.
Did we get to Kirk yet?
I see Kevin also joining us up here as well.
Hey, guys.
How are you doing?
I'm just going to tell you what I'm seeing, how I'm reacting to the market.
I think in the very short term, if you are a trader, a swing trader, day trader,
you have to respect the technicals that apply to your time frame.
And the macro...
really just drives a short-term narrative until it becomes a longer-term reality, one way or the other.
So I'm somebody who makes fun of the short-term trader narratives because it's really just people running from one side of the boat to the other.
There's not really always a reason in real time that it even matters in most cases.
And I'm known as a pretty good macro-analyst.
for a while now.
And I'll tell you, I think macro is kind of overrated in the short term.
So I just think that in the short term, respect to technicals.
If you're a stock picker, be a good picker.
If you are an allocator using ETFs,
You know, that's almost 100% trend following or trying to pick pivots.
So, you know, just stay in your lane.
If you're a short-termer, then respect the technicals.
I think that's the best you can do.
I am looking further out because I try to play off of the traders.
I look for traders with their narratives to run too hard or...
to the upside or to panic too much to the downside so that I can buy my 20 or 30 best ideas
and then have a few ETFs to give me the rest of my allocation.
And the thing that I'm looking at right now, as I always am, is liquidity.
And I think that liquidity is tightening up.
I think it's going to continue to tighten up, and I think it's going to come from different directions.
I think that the most immediate thing, which impacts domestic equity prices, is whether or not
foreigners are buying domestic securities.
And it looks like that started to fall off in the last month.
I've been trying to get final numbers,
and you can't quite get them yet.
Probably be a couple more weeks for March.
It looks like February, it kind of started to shift.
So if the world's pissed off at us,
or they just feel that valuations got out of hand
and growth isn't going to justify the valuations on a forward look,
international investors are pretty sophisticated, right?
They're taking the time to invest outside of their borders,
and they do some due diligence.
I've got clients in Australia, Israel, Great Britain, a couple other places.
They're thinkers, right?
So...
I think that the psychology and then just the financials, you know, they're doing pretty sophisticated stuff.
So keep an eye on foreign direct investment.
If it falls off, that might have been the money at the margin that pushed prices up the last couple of years because we had huge foreign direct investment in U.S. markets.
And they've started to buy heavily at the end of 2022 and into 2023.
So it might just be cyclical.
Maybe they're not irritated.
Maybe it's just valuation.
Who knows, who cares?
The other thing that I think has been theoretical to this point in my life has been the concept of crowding out.
Econ 102, basically the government soaks up too much capital.
And I don't think...
We were at huge risk of that this soon in the developing having to deal with the baby boomer retirement obligations.
But I think maybe President Trump and Elon Musk to an extent have pulled the timeline forward a little bit because I do think it's going to be harder for us to get foreign jobs.
investors into U.S. treasuries. I mean, we know that that's happening, right? We know China is dumping.
Canada shot a shot across the bow by selling some U.S. treasuries. Druck and Miller just said
that he expects the next recession to have higher interest rates. I mean, he's basically saying
that he's afraid of stagflation. So I would just kind of look three to six months out from the tariffs
and say, okay, whatever they put on, whatever the response is, however it turns out,
you'll have, if it's negative, you'll have a delay, right?
Because those numbers won't show up right away.
If it's positive, if all the tariffs come down, you heard what India might be doing,
if suddenly all of a sudden this is all good news, and you make it a shot in the arm.
So I'm just watching this thinking to myself, okay, in the short term, it's all technicals.
In the intermediate term, I think you have to be very concerned with liquidity because if foreign investors are really pulling out of America, if we have a hard time financing our debt, if the banking system for some reason gets squeezed on lending, which could happen because of the treasury market, it could get pretty bad in the second half of the year.
Next few months...
I don't know.
Just trade the technicals would be my thought.
I will finish on energy.
I thought, given the way things are shaping up,
that energy could be the trade of the year.
I said that about six or eight weeks ago.
I'm not quite sure that it qualifies for trade of the year,
but it is holding up pretty nicely.
So we'll see how that goes.
I'm unusually heavy in energy for only the second time this decade.
So...
You know, maybe it runs, maybe it doesn't.
But I don't think there's much downside in anything related to natural gas.
I think the clean energy stocks are so destroyed that you pretty much, there's really only good things that can happen.
You know, the positives, the surprises are probably positive.
So, you know, we'll see.
But I do really like the natural gas related stocks.
I like some of the solar.
I think the battery companies, I don't know how to pick the winners just because the technology is changing so fast.
But as a group, AI is improving these batteries fast.
So you're going to see in three, four, five years, I don't know if it's going to double the energy efficiency of the batteries that are out there, but it's going to be a big jump.
And like I said, I don't know if it's quite Moore's Law stuff, but...
I tell you what, AI for anything complicated is really coming up with answers quick.
I guess I'll mention the pharmaceuticals.
I like the big pharmaceuticals right here, the ones that haven't run up on GLP1 drugs.
I really like Pfizer.
I've been of Bristol-Myer for a while in dividend accounts.
I think Johnson and Johnson's always too expensive.
So if you get a chance to buy it on the cheap this year,
it might be worth doing because AI is going to completely change...
the scope of biologics and pharmaceuticals, and it's going to be fast.
It's not going to be 10 years out.
This is legitimately, I think, a two-year thing plus the time lag for FDA.
So keep your eye on that if you're a position trader.
Again, most of my stuff is geared towards position trading, holding it for a year longer.
But that's really what I'm looking at.
And...
I'm even for the year, not sexy, and I maybe I'm up two points with the option premiums.
I would just caution people to get too caught up in the narratives in the very short term.
Trust your technicals instead.
What's up, Kevin Green?
What's going on, guys?
I'll address what Kurt said.
So, I think you're talking about energy equity.
equities, right? Not the actual commodities themselves. I'm not much of an oil trader.
You know, I've gotten that wrong enough times that I quit, but I do think oil has a chance to spike, but, you know, it's a hard bet to make.
Yeah, no, for sure. You know, the energy companies are actually holding up pretty well right now.
I don't know how long that's going to last.
It kind of just depends on what the market values.
And I don't know what the answer is going to be for that.
So a lot of those energy companies are,
you know, free cash flow behemists, right?
And their debt load is on a relative basis pretty low if you kind of look at their
10-year average.
So if the market perceives that to be a premium, given the lack of clarity that we have on
the macroeconomic environment, I think there probably could be a play there to a certain point.
So it's been holding up.
I personally, I thought that the, I mean, I look at the XLE.
It's not the best, it's not the best ETF at all.
But I look at the XLE and I know that it's a range bound trade.
It gets a little expensive around the 93-94 level.
You know, full disclosure, I try shorten it Wednesday of last week.
I tried shorting it.
last week, yeah, I've gotten to the 92 and a half puts and obviously that didn't work out.
I mean, I had two more weeks left, but...
Usually if I see something that continues to kind of run, I'm not going to wait for two weeks.
I'm going to get out and look for another trade.
So I think that XLE is a little bit overvalued right now, but I do have to respect the fact that it is holding up.
I thought we would see a little bit more of a fundamental breakdown of the XLE, especially today with kind of yields, for the most part, moving to the downside.
But there is definitely some dollars that are being put there.
The natural gas players, I don't really follow.
I mean, EQT and all that, I mean, they've been doing a really good job.
I think, like, if you kind of look at like a Kinder Morgan, I feel like it's still like it is actually a little bit overvalue.
But that's a different play, right?
That's a pipeline play.
And then they'll probably be a direct beneficiary of the LNG trade, right?
So they can get the gas from point A to point B out to those ports.
and move it along but natural gas i thought was a little bit over a little bit it's a lot overvalued
and you're starting to see it now kind of breaking um lasted a lot longer than i expected and when i kind of
talk about this i want to kind of bring in two poor parts here if you kind of look at the monthly chart
and bring up a bank d on the monthly natural gas in my opinion right now is actually going through a bull cycle so it's kind of dangerous to trade it's always dangerous to trade but it's really kind of dangerous to trade right now um but when we hit i i'll say it's 450 if you look on your chart
Net gas technically hit $490 on a trading session.
I think that was a Sunday session that it just got completely blown out to the upside.
That lasted all of like five minutes, maybe three minutes.
And it came back down to $450.
So I kind of look at it and say $450 and lower.
So it's down of I think 22% from the $450 level.
and below that $4 level, which is key.
What it needs to actually break is around $4.75 to really kind of give you the all-clear.
The reason why I felt like it's a little bit overvalued, look, the AI stuff, okay,
like I get that.
But at the end of the day, if you look at the electricity capacity that we're bringing online,
just on average every year, we increase our capacity by about 3%.
And if you kind of look at the projections, now obviously these projections that I looked at were
eight months ago. So it's probably ramped up a lot more for now. But even if you kind of look at
the projections, it was only going to really eat into about like 0.4%, 0.3 is like 0.325% of the additional
capacity that we're going to bring on to the grid, excluding Texas, because Texas is a little bit
odd when it comes to their grid. So the
The demand is going to definitely be there.
How are you going to get it immediately there?
It's going to be natural gas consumption, but we have so much that at the end of the day,
I don't think it's not going to be a major, major driver.
The major driver for natural gas, in my opinion, is going to be liquefied natural gas
and our ability to build up these export facilities to get it out onto shifts, get them out, right?
And that will actually...
push our prices, Henry Hub higher, and push Dutch prices lower.
And that's how that's going to like equalize.
And so once I got to go back to the monthly and say, hey, Natcast kind of looks like it's on a
bull run, but it's still going to have its cycles.
And we're in the shoulder season right now.
Weather forecasts look really decent.
And we are starting to see some premiums roll off.
The reason I had somebody that listens and follows me and we kind of talk about trades
every once in a while.
Um, he was like, okay, KG, like, you still like, because I trade 90, right?
And you always said, it's like I got out of four because the thing is, is if you kind of look at it between like six, I always have to adjust my times, between let's say seven o'clock Eastern time to about eight, 15 Eastern time.
There has been a trader that has spiked natural gas.
like in some instances up to 15 cents which a lot like you're talking about that's a lot of money right
that's $1,500 contract right they would spike it in the morning and it just took forever to kind of break it down
but every single day they kept layering on and layering on
So there's a little bit of an unwinding that's taking place, but the natural gas side,
I still feel like maybe has a little bit more room to the downside, maybe up to the down to that $3 level if you kind of get to right before the major, you know, summer season for consumption.
So that's that trade.
Crude got really close to $70.
Yeah.
We were 20 cents away from that 70 level, I think.
But that's kind of a little bit of a tough trade.
Look, we have the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
It sounds like they are trying to come up with some partial ceasefire, Black Sea.
They're going to have a ceasefire there, free transit within the Black Sea.
Yeah.
And then they are also not going to hit oil refineries
and energy infrastructure.
We will see.
Last time that they said this, both sides
were hitting infrastructure, like literally the same day.
But if that's going to be the case,
it's not really so much in oil play,
but that's going to be the case.
I think the market is really potentially pricing
end that these oil sanctions on Russia will be either
greatly diminished and or removed.
which will open up their trading for global trade,
just in general now, do some of these individuals
that were not buying from them?
Will they start buying from them?
That remains to be seen, I think so.
But that remains to be seen,
but I think that's gonna be a downside pressure.
And I think you saw that on the intraday pricing here today.
You saw the same type of reaction downside pricing
when it came to grains because of the Black Sea environment.
And then also the US, I think it's one of the options is
opening up Russia to global trade again for grains,
and then also opening them up for global trade for fertilizer.
Once again, kind of hinting at energy markets
probably on the horizon.
I would not be surprised to hear that announcement
in the next week or so.
So that's going to push those prices down as well.
So the grain side of the equation is going to be kind of hit.
So that's what I'm looking at there.
I still think Kurt is right.
You got to trade this market technically.
If you're on your chart, now it will take too much time,
but if you're on your chart, I think this is very important.
S&P 500, you can bring up three months, bring up six months.
There's going to be two channels that you can build.
Two basically, you'll call them both flags,
kind of beginning extended right now,
but both flags.
There's a primary channel that we had for the first drawdown.
We went up, tried to break out of this, what,
cup and handle, inverse head and shoulders, actually,
pattern.
And then we broke down.
So that's your second channel.
So they should have like three lines in your chart.
In the middle, channel line was one, an area of support previously that broke down to an area of resistance.
We're basically hitting that right now.
So we're wedged between the 200-day moving average on the support area,
wedge between that channel line in the middle.
And then we also have that 20-period moving average kind of meandering around in there, too.
So I don't like where we are at position-wise on the chart.
If it...
I think right now you still have to go to the bull side just because, you know, the tariff talk kind of softened a little bit.
I will say the signal thing for the Trump administration and what they're kind of dealing with with the news cycle.
If you kind of notice today, you didn't get pretty much any commentary on tariffs.
Very minimal. I think there's one mention from Trump about tariffs today. Right.
If that's going to be the case and that cycle takes place for the next 24 hours, usually new cycles last for about 48 hours, depending on if this guy actually releases anything and it becomes a bigger story.
That can take away from the tariff narrative, which I think is actually a good thing and it lets the market calm down a little bit.
Talking about the politics and signal and whatever, I care less about that like care, but it doesn't mean anything, but it means for for us as traders that we might see a distraction in the administration that takes away from the.
tape bombs of tariff policy, at least for the next day or two days.
And I think we saw that at least for today's session, which I think is a decent thing.
But I do also say that the economic data we have left this week, I do not believe will be impactful enough
to really knock the bears doubt.
Unless PCE comes in hot and it's completely unexpected,
which honestly analysts are really good with PCE,
we usually don't get any major curveballs.
I think even if it comes in line, we're good.
It's still going to be hot, 0.3% month or month, still hot.
But comes in line, we're going to be good.
So the environment right now, in my opinion, still says,
Bulls may have another couple of trading sessions at least to get moving and try to reclaim the 50% retracement from high to low here.
So that's kind of what I'm looking at.
It took a lot of time.
I bet there.
But that's what I'm kind of looking at.
Oh, yeah, Tesla.
Yeah.
A lot of options activity in Tesla, they are squeezing this thing up.
I don't think it's completely new longs getting in on the share front.
I do believe this is kind of an option's move that is taking place.
People have been targeting the 300 calls expiring for this week.
Last week, I believe on Thursday, those bad boards are going for 13 cents.
Today, they're going for three bucks.
Some individuals are still targeting the 310s and 320s over the next couple of expirations.
So that's going to be something that's very interesting.
If we start getting into that type of dynamic of a market where the options players can really try to push price that gives you a little bit more of a risk on signal as well.
So still stay tactical here.
I do, you know, longer term, I'll say this again, even though we're up.
I still think that we should be prepared for the first, as this being the first wave of a bigger downturn for now.
I think we're in a lull between,
Soft data that has been impacting markets, the market has now embraced the soft data, right?
You have consumer confidence, our reaction and our ability to stay where we were at today with that consumer confidence number,
which I believe was like the worst one since like close to the lows of COVID, if I'm not mistaken.
It gives you a sign that the market's bracing for the sentiment data just come in lackluster.
We are not at the point yet or even if, but yet where it would be reflected in hard data.
And usually people say three to six months for it to show up.
So that gap gives Bulls the ability or the window of opportunity to kind of advance in price as much as possible over the next couple of days and or even weeks before we start really talking about jobs, data and all this other stuff.
At least next week, we get jobs data.
Yeah.
So that's kind of where I'm at when it comes to this whole thing.
So I'll kick it back and appreciate you guys having me on.
I appreciate those comments, Kevin.
I was looking.
QQQ here in After Hours has hit the 200-day moving average, catching up to spy.
We did see an interesting...
divergence today with the tech stocks. It seemed like the NASDAQ and a lot of tech stocks,
there was money flowing into those more so than maybe the broader market today. Kevin,
did you notice anything like that on your side? I'm just based on price action that I was seeing
today. That's what I was noticing the divergence. Yeah, you saw a little bit of a divergence
that took place here. You know, if you look at the sector makeup for today,
I think it's more of a hodgepodge, just random stuff that just saw our performance.
I mean, communication service is doing up 1.4%.
That's going to also drag tech up a little bit there.
It's actually a pretty decent movement after hours.
I'm not sure if something else hit or Tesla continues to rip for NQ there.
But, um,
Yeah, that's a heck of a move. But you did kind of see that, right? The tech names are trying to hold up and even the discretionary names. So Amazon was having some issues at that 200 day moving average kind of sounds familiar from last year, right? Has an issue, but we broke above it. And I think we came back, pretty much retested that 200 level. And I think it's holding. Right. So you have a flip of
previous resistance that turned into support,
that acted as resistance again,
that might be turning into support.
So I think that gives you a little bit of a bright sign.
You can kind of go through each and every one of these charts
and go through the same type of analysis.
I felt Google's price action today was actually really good
for a stock that people have been like not
too big a fan on. You look at the weekly chart, you got a hammer candle there, you got some follow through.
You're kind of filling a gap area for the most part up to around 170. Daily chart looks like you're
going to see some resistance sitting at around 175, which is also an area that sounds a little bit familiar,
right? Back in early March, that was an area of resistance that we were not able to do. So if you
kind of go through and just look at some of the mega cap names just in general and look at their charts,
and see, okay, how much can this thing run?
At some point, I think the Bears will, I would be very shocked.
We have straight up V recovery here, but we've seen them in the past.
I would be kind of a little bit shocked with it because I feel like the dynamic is different
and the uncertainty is different.
But let's just say that, like, hey, maybe we did hit the bottom.
Where are you going to see, you know, money getting put towards?
What I did see, though, on the flip side of that, Oklo,
you know, down 6%, they had that announcement yesterday.
If I look at like a CEG down 0.7%,
if I look at a Pellantier down 0.26%.
So it wasn't straight up, like just risk on.
It seemed like it was a little bit more tactical.
But I also call it hodgepodge.
Industrials did well today, energy did well today.
You know, it's kind of like pick your area
and you might find some green shoots.
From a sector standpoint, what do I say that looks like
the best out of all of them?
Technically,
If I'm looking at the weekly, I believe materials looks pretty decent, hitting some key areas of support or getting close to that 200 day moving average.
You could take a shot at materials.
What was the other one that I was looking at too?
I think communication services is the only other one.
Financials look good too, but I feel like financials are maybe a little bit expensive here.
Let me look at communication services because I do want to make a comment on this one real quick.
If you look at XLC on the weekly, it actually is the only one that carries a significant amount of weight that's still kind of resolving the 20 week moving average, which would be the equivalent of around that 100 day.
So I think that's also kind of notable.
If it's able to try to recover that 20 week moving average,
which has been able to do in the past,
it did it in August, it did it in mid-September,
that probably is kind of the best one out of the bunch
that's still receiving positive flows.
So, and I hate seeing this too.
Russell looks good on the weekly.
I just hate it.
But Russell hit the 200 week moving average.
It just, it's a very hard one for me to put down, man.
I mean, like knowing the uncertainty that's out there,
knowing some of the crap that you get with it,
I think you've got to be a little bit more tactical on the small cap space.
But IWM looks like you could take a shot to the upside.
And I bet the premiums on those options are probably relatively cheap compared to SPX or MDX.
By other quick notes, Evan did post or pinned up top.
He has an interview with Tom Lee coming up on April the 4th.
So set a reminder for that space.
It's going to be exciting to have Tom Lee on spaces, Fun Stratt, if you guys know,
is that on here.
A couple other things.
Apple did confirm it's WWDC on June 9th through the 13th.
I know that Stocktok already bought tickets to get there.
He's been on the wait list for a little bit.
So...
We are excited for that, for sure, on this space.
Doc Talk, big, big WWDC fan.
He loves the new till color that they're going to come out with.
But, yeah, Apple, that was the news on Apple Day as well.
I'm glad you're doing the trolling job for Evans and season here.
Somebody had to do it, right?
Somebody's got to pick up the slack when he's traveling.
There was an interesting news story around Apple today,
reportedly in the process of placing orders for a billion dollars in the video chips,
according to Loop Capital.
Also, I believe Dell and SMCI were mentioned as the hardware providers for that.
I saw that.
Was there anything else that stuck out to you today?
stock talk from a news front or I didn't know if there's any analyst readings or anything I did want to go back to Kevin and get his opinion on the Deutsche Bank survey we referenced earlier but outside of that I think we touched on most of the stories oh I did like I did think the Alibaba chairman made some clever and in my view accurate comments about AI
I cap-ex spend over the weekend.
As we said, it's hard for him to not see how that is in a bubble.
And, I mean, again, bubbles come in all shapes and sizes.
That doesn't have to be a world-ending bubble.
It can be just a bubble in a very specific industry.
But he was talking about how he was like, look, it's ridiculous.
The numbers that are being thrown around $500 billion, $600 billion, you know, $150 billion to this.
And he's like...
He just made the case.
I'm paraphrasing his comments here.
I don't remember his exact quote,
but he made the case that
CapEx spent on AI is probably getting way ahead of itself
and,
you know, the real-world AI products probably have a much different strategy and approach to development than the world of LLMs that we've seen.
And there's probably going to need to be some digestion and all of that stuff.
And I think those are all just smart, reasonable comments.
I don't think he's saying anything outlandish or...
you know,
controversial.
I think those are just sound points to be making,
you know,
especially what's happened over the last few months
in surrounding AI spend.
Like,
yeah,
I know all the Mag 7 juggernauts
have held their ground
and said that they're going to continue to spend.
But,
you know,
the buck stopped somewhere,
and I don't know if that's going to be
towards the end of this year or next year,
but I think eventually people are going to sober up to that reality.
But that was the only other story.
But I did want to get Kevin's opinion on
You guys are there?
We want your opinion on something, Kevin, but we don't...
Oh, okay.
I think I got a phone call right there, or he rugged himself again.
It was something around that Deutsche Bank survey.
I heard him mention that.
Watch Dollar Tree.
Watch Dollar Tree earning tomorrow.
Somebody's hitting the 175 calls today.
Or not tomorrow.
I'm sorry, Wednesday.
Okay.
I'm sorry, Stockton, can you hear us now?
Or can you?
Yeah, yeah, sorry.
I don't know.
Oh, okay.
I bet.
I didn't hear anything.
I don't know if you saw the survey that Deutsche Bank released this morning, but they
surveyed respondents.
I believe they were both institutional and retail respondents, but I think this one, this
survey particularly was just institutional, but I'm going to pin it at the top.
But I don't know if you saw this.
And they shared the graph and they showed the distribution of respondent expectations for tariffs.
And like you can go look at the graph yourself.
It's just like wild how widely distributed they are.
And in the conclusion of the note, they basically said, it is our view that there is no consensus view.
on tariff expectations from the market.
So I'm just curious what your thoughts are on that
and what do you think the implications of that might be.
And obviously that survey isn't, you know,
the gold standard for market sentiment on this.
I just thought it was interesting.
Yeah, I would agree with them though, right?
I think everybody, it's all over the board.
And some of that's messaging,
but we also have to understand some of that's mechanical in nature as well, right?
There's different sets of tariffs and there's different rules and laws.
and executive authorities on the way that the Trump administration can actually impose tariffs on countries and the reasons why.
Like some of them, if it's like a national security type of situation, that could be a reason for, if you're kind of looking at the USMCA or the NAFTA, or whatever you would call it these days.
that's under a different whole, you know, different rulebook that kind of has to go through the WTO and like all of this, all these things here.
So I think it makes it a little bit difficult for analysts and economists to really try to figure out what's the blended rate.
Because that's what we want to know.
We don't really, how do I say this?
It's going to matter for specific industries, right?
So let's just say this.
Like, do we do we tear 20% on steel coming from?
Chile, right, which is 40% of our imports come from Chile and steel.
So that would be a big deal for a particular industry.
But if it's like it's 20% there, but that's like the only major tariffs that we have from,
from Chile and everything else we're just cool with.
So there's going to be like this blended rate, this tariff rate.
And the blended tariff rate is really what analysts want to see because then we're able to kind of like,
back out and see, okay, what's the actual notational or nominal impact to the economy?
And right now, we just don't know what that is because once again, there's, it's not only just the messaging,
Which I think the messaging, I think there is a strategy to why they're doing the messaging of the way they are doing it.
I don't think it's the most appropriate way to do it.
But there is a strategy there.
Do you think they want to create uncertainty?
Yeah, they think they want to create as much uncertainty as possible for, I'm not only say for us as consumers.
Obviously, that's kind of the results of this.
But they want to create as much uncertainty to see what are people, what are countries willing to give up for their initial offer?
And I think that's really what they're trying to do,
even though that will also have ramifications.
Regardless of what happens.
So let's just say that tariffs do not even go on on April 2nd.
Let's just say he has a come to Jesus type moment and he says, you know what?
everything shines and rainbows. And I love everybody now, whatever. And we're not going to do any type of tear policy. There's still going to be an economic impact just because of what we're doing right now. So that's like some of the stuff is already kind of baked into the cards. I think everybody's trying to figure out what is the second half
of the year impact going to be.
And so we want to figure out whatever that blended rate is.
So I think that distribution is probably for the most part accurate as to what people feel.
And then you're going to get different respondents to say different things because they may work in a particular industry that's going to be impacted.
Right.
An auto worker right now is really concerned.
because it's not only just the parts moving from back and forth over Mexico's borders six or seven times, which a lot of the parts do, or the same thing going from back and forth from Canada.
And then like, how are you going to manage that? Is that really going to count? Is it tariff once and done? Or are you going to tariff this thing back and forth? Because a part that goes back and forth seven times at a 20% rate, you do the math, right? That's unsustainable, just in general.
I don't know if I imagine you didn't, but to that point on Reddit, there's been a ton of, and again, there's no way to corroborate these, but there's been a ton of leaks for those that have been paying attention on Reddit around these meetings with business officials he's been having.
And to the point you just made about automobiles, there was a leak on Reddit, which again, I cannot verify the authenticity of it, but based on.
Just my reading of these things over the years, it seems pretty legit.
But they were citing a GM official that was at the business administration meeting.
And apparently they had a back and forth with Trump on their Mexico plans.
And I don't know if people remember his earlier comments, but Trump said, oh, we decided to give a 30 to 60 day grace period.
to the automakers because they called me and told me how difficult it would be to move production.
Apparently in that meeting, one of the GM representatives that was there said,
we literally will not be able to function as a business in the near term if we're forced to move our production in that time frame.
And they're not going to be able to.
That's not even realistic.
I mean, even to start a production plant.
Or even to restart some of the ones that are in like a, say, a Toledo, Ohio, for instance.
I mean, like, that takes years for that stuff to happen.
So I don't think it's realistic. What will happen, though?
Mark my words. I don't think the auto tariffs are going to go through.
If they do, I would be very, I would be very shocked on a political basis because that's way too close, even though it seems like it's very far away.
Your midterm season is coming up.
Like that's by the time we kick off September, October, if you're in a, you know, going to be in a battleground district, especially for like year, it's going to be that season once again, unfortunately.
What will happen, Mark, my word, they're going to have to force a consolidation.
Because these companies are not going to be able to do so.
They're not going to be able to do it.
And that's realistic.
It's the same thing with even these energy companies.
I mean, they're getting a break right now, and rightfully so, they should.
But, like, you know, if he were to say, oh, you can't get Canadian oil, I mean, dude, you're talking about a boat.
Like, that's a problem.
Like, our refiners, even in the Midwest, just would not be able, they would be able to do what they need to do.
But it would just be a lot harder and a lot more cost that goes into it.
So some of this stuff.
Once again, I think is a threat that he's going to try to back away.
But some of these executives know that it's a threat.
And it's like, dude, okay, like if you don't back down on this, it's not even a threat like we want to show you.
It's like we won't be able to do business, especially public companies because they're going to have to answer to their shareholders.
Like why they're ramping up their cash burn.
That's not going to, that's not going to work.
And then who's going to try to spend more money on CAPEX for a policy that can change in four years?
That's something that's just not going to be possible either.
So I'm not trying to reign on the parade of the tariff regime,
but that's what executives are thinking right now.
And the ones that are kind of going and partying and doing all these things,
they're getting a re-prey for right now.
But you never know.
Things can always change on a dime.
And I think the signal, even for tech, even for tech,
the signal around the whole Microsoft,
investigation with what the FTC and DOJ, right?
And you know, everybody's kind of like,
oh, they're not going to have to deal with it anymore.
You know, we were pricing in a premium on Google.
They're like, oh, we're not going to see any issues.
And they're like, no, like, we're still going through with this because
A lot of people don't know.
J.D. Vance was actually a Lina Khan fan.
People don't know that.
That's, he actually supported her.
So I think, like, it makes it very, very difficult.
And unfortunately, we'll get through this.
We'll get through this.
And hopefully this big hurrah that we see next week is 80%.
I would imagine we're going to have some, you know, pharmacy, you know, we're going to have some, you know, trailers here for terrorists, but hopefully next week, I think it's next week, week after, whatever, is kind of the final hurrah.
It was the last thing I say, and I hate taking up the space like this.
Think about and just, I will not even even lecture about it, just think about the pharmaceutical tariffs.
And if anybody knows anything, especially if you're an India investor, which I know you are stock talk,
if you know anything about pharmaceuticals and where they're made, the bulk and the majority
are made in India and in China, do you think that we could even repatriate and bring out those
businesses and bring those back here in the United States?
They never even started here.
Pharmaceutical business in Asia and China has been around for...
thousands of years. I mean, this is not something that's something like we got screwed over 20 years ago because it's some trade deal.
This is something that just we've been, it's been like this.
There's no way that we're going to be able to bring that back.
It fast enough for us to be able to satisfy supply here in the United States in general.
One, two, the cost of labor is going to just skyrocket these pharmaceutical prices just in general, which they're already just way too high.
But pharmaceutical companies are not going to give up their margins, one iota.
So that's another industry where it's like we're going to give a pass or an exemption right now, but I'm going to announce some pharmaceutical tariffs.
It's like, okay, and then what?
Because they're not going to be able to do anything.
Yeah, and not to mention, not to mention countless other industries where that dynamic is also true, either from a talent standpoint or from the standpoint of like, I mean, America is just too wealthy a country to manufacture certain things, point blank.
And so, yeah, I agree with you.
I think anybody who's taking a, I don't think anybody reasonable is taking a unilateral stance on this tariff issue to say that this is possible to do in short order.
I don't think anyone reasonable believes that.
I don't think anyone reasonable believes that tariffs will go on in all of these categories.
And so there's a ton of nuance to this.
And I think that, you know, the automobile industry, for example, that you brought up, right?
Like, yeah.
We're the biggest auto market in the world in terms of premium vehicles by far.
You know, if you take out the tier one consumer vehicle, right, the super cheap, like,
sub 10,000 U.S. vehicle, if you take that category out, the U.S. is dwarfs every car market
on her, okay?
And you look at GM and whether or not you believe that story of the leak from the business
administration meeting, I believe it, because GM will not be able to survive with these tariffs.
But.
You know, you tell these guys, okay, move production.
Even if you give them a three-year timeline to do it, between now and then, the financial
performance of these companies is going to be, you know, horrified, you know.
So even if it is possible for them to do this over a three to five-year period, which, again,
I don't think they will do or neither do I think it's possible to really do.
Even if they do venture to do it, or if there's some plan that's made or some deal that's
made, it's going to take forever.
And, yeah.
If the story from Reuters this weekend about the Indian government is true, which, again, I also venture to believe that that story is true.
You have to choose to believe or not to believe some of these type of stories, but it was a very detailed story.
And in the story, the Reuters story on India over the weekend, they said that the Indian government realizes where the United States has wiggle room and where it doesn't.
And in the automobile category, India has been very stringent.
Like, India has had 100% plus tariffs on most countries and automobiles forever.
Like, from anybody that's looked at the business case study of Tata Motors, if you go look at
the birth of Tata Motors and the growth of Tata Motors, it was largely fueled by direct,
like I'm talking about as direct as it gets, intervention, protectionist intervention from the Indian government
to prevent international companies from coming in and capturing market share in these growing suburbs of India
and these growing tech hubs of India where there is, you know, there are people with disposable income, which isn't,
much of India, but there are these hot hubs, six or seven regional hubs,
where international companies came and attempted to penetrate,
and you had immediate protectionist intervention by the Indian government.
I think Trump wants to change some of those sort of violent protectionist policies internationally.
In my view, I think he wants to soften those.
And it would obviously be beneficial to companies like Tesla, for example,
who are looking to venture into India, which wouldn't be completely out of line with the Trump administration,
seeing as Elon's doing a humanoid showcase at Capitol Hill this week as well.
I wouldn't be surprised if Elon is encouraging him.
And Elon also had a meeting with Modi for those that remember to say,
hey, why doesn't India soften their rules?
Maybe let us form a joint venture with Reliance or somebody
and start a Tesla India joint venture and sell cars there and not pay 100% tariffs.
And in return, you get softer tariff policy from the Trump administration on some categories that you guys need.
So there are tradeoffs.
here. You know, there's risk
rewards, and I think most countries are
going to probably view this that way
ahead of the deadline. I also
agree with you, Kevin, that there's a probably
good chance that that doesn't even end up being a
deadline or gets pushed back again.
Yeah, I think bottom line, the takeaway is uncertainty.
Yeah, and I just want to cast on this.
Somebody posted and tagged me on an interview that I should watch of Howard Luckick,
and I'm familiar with the interview.
You know, I would get very...
You need to, I would just say, broaden out your metrics as far as tariff impact and looking at trade deficits alone.
Because looking at trade deficits alone in a vacuum is a recipe for disaster for bad policy.
Just because we have a trade deficit doesn't mean somebody's taking advantage of us.
You know, it also does mean that we have, you know, exceptionalism as far as consumption,
and economic booms here in the United States.
Do we get terrible a lot?
Yes, we do.
But I think just looking at trade deficits alone is the probably one of the worst metrics to look at
for saying some country screwing us over or not.
It's just if we consume more.
on a nominal basis, we don't have any tariffs on.
Let's just say we have no tariffs on anything.
And we still have a trade deficit, say, with China.
Is that viewed as a negative thing?
No, right?
Like, no one can match US consumption power.
Yeah, exactly.
So I think, you know, there's a lot that's being hung on this whole level.
We have a trade deficit with China.
We have a trade deficit.
Like we have, we have the best.
consumers in the world, right?
We're also leveraged to the help, but you know, it is what it is.
But I don't think that just looking at the trade deficits alone and saying, well, look, that country, you know, look at the deficit that we're trading with them, they're screwing us over.
That is not how...
to look at that number, right?
This is nominal go back and forth.
So do I understand the trade policy in some respects?
Yes, I don't want people thinking that I don't.
I'm completely hating on them.
I do believe the status quo or maybe a small adjustment between Canada and Mexico is probably,
you know, something to discuss.
I think the way that we're going about the partnership might be, might actually trail into more
long-term impacts that I think are unintended consequence, or maybe they're intended, who knows, but unintended consequences.
But I just don't, because the Howard Lopnik interview and him talking about trade deficits the whole time and they're taking advantage of us and this person is taking advantage.
That's not how we should be looking at it.
There should be a right equilibrium, but just looking at that number alone, right?
is not the best, right? Because there could be countries that just cannot consume, right?
China is a really good, really good example of that. China's had a lacklustre economy since COVID.
And even before COVID, it was doing really good, but a lot of that was inflated. And now you're
seeing that their bubble has started to burst. And it is bursting right now. And they're trying
to kind of restructure that. But we continue to.
to increase our nominal trade with the country.
So it doesn't mean that they continue to take more advantage of us
because our trade deficit gives higher and higher.
It's like, dude, they're also not consuming.
They're not consuming not only just the goods and the industrial materials
that we provide to them.
They're also
maybe slowing down consumption in oil imports in general, that has been the case,
starting to ramp up a little bit, inventory levels are low. And then services consumption has also
kind of fell on off a cliff for China just in general. So looking at that and saying,
that's a perfect example, that's a struggling country. If the country cannot consume but they can export,
Our deficit with them is going to get wider and wider.
That's just math.
That's just how it is.
And I think it's kind of getting spun to something completely different.
And I think we need to kind of realize that.
So I know that we're over, guys.
I appreciate you guys having me on.
I'm still here.
I'm still here if you wanted to talk about it.
But I'm not going to,
I agree with you on all those points.
I mean,
I think,
you know,
I think people have to take a nuanced view on this.
Like, I think a lot of people are treating this the way that they treat other political issues,
which is like, I'm, you know, whatever.
I'm in this party, so I'm in favor of this, or I'm in this party, so I'm against this.
I see this a lot with a tariff issue.
I'm not pointing anyone out.
I'm just saying broadly I see this where, you know, people who voted against Trump
want to say tariffs are bad and they want to explain why, and then people voted for them,
want to say tariffs are good.
I think it's much more nuanced than that.
I think you can be against...
you know, unilateral tariffs against Canada, which I'm against,
I think you can be against that,
and then also be for the idea for tariffs in specific industries for very specific reasons.
And, you know, that's kind of more of how I am.
I think in some industries it makes sense.
Like with steel and aluminum, for example,
I'm not an expert in the steel aluminum industry.
I don't want to pretend like I am.
But I think in the long term, the idea of the United States having more
steel and aluminum manufacturing capacity at home is a good thing for us as a country.
In the short and medium term, there are obviously huge headwinds to doing that.
And there are huge headwinds from a price standpoint because steel and input are huge inputs globally.
There's a huge headwind from a price standpoint as well.
My point of since saying that is not to say that people should agree or disagree with me on that view.
It's to say that I think it's okay to have a nuanced view on this.
I think it's okay.
And I'm probably speaking to a lot of people in the audience who feel like they have to be pro or anti-everything.
But you can say, hey, I don't think tariffs on pharmaceuticals make sense for some of the reasons that Kevin outlined.
You can say, hey, I don't think tariffs on semiconductors make sense in the short term because it's really unlikely that we can get enough.
a cutting-edge semiconductor manufacturing at home in a short enough period to be conducive to the AI race between the United States and China.
You can make that argument.
You can make the argument that automobile tariffs will lead to the extinction of several American automakers, which they will.
So you can make a nuanced argument and then say, hey, but in the long term, I do agree that,
this industry in specific or maybe this industry should be resured for national security purposes or whatever
and then come up with a nuanced and detailed and multi-year approach to make that happen.
That I think is the appropriate way to approach this.
Obviously, in this headline-driven market, that's not the way people think about this.
They think about this in a very...
in absolute terms, like April 2nd, there's going to be tariffs on everything for everyone,
and it's never going to end, and it's going to be a new world order.
I probably take the under on that.
Do I think things are going to change from a trade policy standpoint this year and over the next four years?
Yeah, I think they probably will.
Do I think it's going to be a dramatic world-shifting change that changes the face of the global economy?
I don't think so.
So...
I don't know.
Could it lead to a recession?
Sure.
Could it lead to...
I mean, recessions happen regularly,
so that wouldn't be any, like,
kind of like,
oh, big, scary boogeyman.
They happen all the time.
So, yeah, could it lead to recession?
Sure.
Could it lead to,
you know...
ramp back up in inflation into the summer, sure.
That's all pretty reasonable potential scenario also.
Is it going to happen?
I don't know.
It's on my base case, but it's a potential.
Yeah.
So I think entertaining these things and just, you know,
having these sort of conversations that we're having is important and,
Having some kind of view on it.
And to reiterate what Kirk said, to kind of circle back, I noticed it was about 20, 30 minutes ago when he said it.
But I agree.
For most of you, from your trading standpoint, whether you're trading futures like Kevin or you're trading individual stocks and swing trading them like me and Kirk or whatever you're doing, you probably you don't need to worry too much about the macro in the way that we're talking about it for your trading.
Like, I don't use it much for my stock picking and my trading personally.
I haven't found the need to.
But do I think it's important to have some kind of base case view on your expectations for where these things might go?
Yeah, I think that keeps you a little bit more informed about the risks and about...
you know, what could happen on a broader market level.
And that's important because, you know, as a trader, if you're just completely blind to that
and, you know, some traders do advocate for being like the horse with the blinders,
I think, you know, to an extent, but you don't want to be too blind to the environment
because, you know, then you try things that you probably shouldn't.
And I've seen a lot of traders do that in this environment where they're trading the same way
they traded last year and it's not working out well for them.
And, you know,
You know, I think part of that is an understanding of set up versus environment and also an understanding that
most of these issues are more nuanced than they appear.
It's kind of like that little thing that you see on your mirrors,
like objects and mirror,
maybe larger than they appear.
That's kind of how I think about it.
Like, these issues are more nuanced than they appear
and the way they're presented in the media and the headlines
that we see on a Twitter feed.
Like, I mean, I'm part of this.
I tweet headlines all the time.
But, you know, most of the big accounts on Twitter do.
When you see something come out, you think it's interesting,
you tweet it out.
And in this constant news cycle,
People feel like really, I don't know, almost factioned about these things because there's so much...
absolute big headlines you know this is going to happen these are the implications you know
consumer sentiment falling off a cliff so people get camped up pretty quickly I think in
environments like this and I think you have to avoid doing that and just continue to be
try to be smart I don't know I mean you can you know no one's smarter than the market
and you're going to get humbled from time to time but these are the environments where you try
to be smart try to be reasonable try to be level headed and
Don't overreact to, you know, a minus 1.5% day in the S&B 500 and don't overreact to a plus 1.5% day in the S&B 500 either.
This is that kind of environment.
You know, last year, those type of days were the days where you're like, oh, we're headed for another big leg up in this trend.
This year, I think those are the days where you look at them and say, okay, I should probably keep my wits about me.
And, you know, if you're short on a big down move, you should probably lock some profits.
If you're long on a big up move, you should probably lock some profits.
This is, I think, one of those years.
So I think you stay frosty and keep having good conversations and debates with people around these topics.
And I think you'll be able to navigate the market a little bit easier.
Okay, I know we're a little bit over time, man.
Do you want to wrap, should we wrap things up here?
Yeah, whenever we're, we didn't have a hard cut off of the top of the hour today.
So it's like the conversation's coming to a nice, nice spot here to go ahead and close it out for the day.
Kirk, did you have any final thoughts you wanted to throw in the mix before we wrap?
No, if you're in Vegas over the summer, come and see me.
Give me Vegas all summer?
I don't know.
It depends on when I run out of money.
I mean, I'll be in Vegas, definitely, this summer.
I'll be in Vegas probably, I mean, I'm, yeah, I'll be in Vegas.
So I'll hear you up if you're there this summer.
When are you going to be there?
I'll be there big part of June.
I play in the World Series of poker and...
Like I said, we'll see how it goes this year.
I've been good enough to bring the money from Wisconsin
and drop it off in Vegas most years.
We've got to change your name to Kirk the Baller now.
World Series of Poker, I love it.
I might come watch you, who knows.
There you go.
I'll be playing in the senior event.
We'll be the one that I think I can go deepest in.
All right, sounds good.
All right, take it easy.
Take it easy.
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