Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Sept. 30, 2025 Duration: 3:33:15Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, key topics included the U.S. Army's partnership with Dragonfly for drone manufacturing, Nubank's application for a U.S. National Bank Charter, and the growth potential of companies like DraftKings and Robinhood in the evolving fintech landscape. The conversation highlighted emerging trends in AI and healthcare, signaling robust growth opportunities across various sectors.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Yo, yo, yo, yo.
Yo, yo, what a rug from Evan.
Great start, hot start to the space today.
We are green, by the way.
We've just recovered all the way back to green across the market.
QQQ up a quarter.
That's a quarter of a dollar, 0.04%.
SPY is up almost a almost $1.14%. And obviously, Nvidia new all-time highs up 2.24% right now.
Across the board, Microsoft's had a good day. It's at the high of day now. Tesla just ripped
recently after being down. It's coming back close to going green on the day. I think it might have
wicked up there close, but kind of a mixed day.
Some big days.
Hood, new all-time highs is what I saw.
Some other stuff.
I'll let everyone else cover it.
But just wanted to get us rolling here.
Is the government going to shut down?
Who knows?
Does the market really even care?
Seems like it.
Seems like the government is going to shut down.
Unless they're just lying to us and they're just like,
that's part of the strategy of saying we're going to shut down. Of like, oh, don't, you know, we're going to shut down unless they're just lying to us and they're just like this is that that's part of the strategy of saying we're going to shut down of like that's like oh don't you know we're
going to do it but it seems like it's going to happen everyone's saying it's going to happen
what are the betting odds there were 79 the last time i looked 85 right now and it's tonight or something? I think it's midnight tonight.
Happy New Year.
Happy Q4.
The SEC was saying they would maybe
shut down some of their stuff. I also
saw the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They said
they might not release NFT
if the government
shut down.
So that's the conspiracy, right?
This was the plan all along?
Just get rid of the job numbers all right um i want a wolf trading post out about why this is all like give me a
thread on like why this is a conspiracy actually i'm gonna send someone that that's funny but yeah
no it is true.
So yeah, there's a lot of these data points.
I don't know what will and won't be disrupted.
We don't even know if the government will necessarily be shut down.
The market doesn't seem to care that much.
I mean, I know SPY or QQQ is down a little bit today.
Let me actually look over.
Let's see.
What did you say it was down a little right yeah oh no up a tiny bit
nice move in the last couple
minutes slightly green
IWM's down but
Nvidia has been looking fantastic
and I heard you say Robinhood there
yes so Nvidia made a new all time high
Robinhood new all time high flying
first company ever to pass over
4.5 trillion
it is now closer to 5
trillion than 4 trillion as well those uh those numbers from robin hood i think everyone's finally
catching up to the fact of how much money they're going to make from these prediction markets and
then there was a headline i think i saw did you i think you maybe put it out that they were looking
at international as well yeah they are looking at international. I don't know how big that's going to be for them.
We'll see.
DraftKings, though.
DraftKings got rent.
10% today.
That is a very intriguing one.
So I know someone up here on the spaces
has fricking talked the ear off
some rants on the sports betting space.
So I'm going to write this down
and we'll at least target the rant
toward an interesting conversation today.
So let's see. I'll see Stock Talk on here. I know, not yet, but I'm saving to write this down, and we'll at least target the rant toward an interesting conversation today. So let's see.
I'll see Stock Talk on here.
I know, not yet, but I'm saving it for later.
Sports betting.
Good.
Prediction markets.
EKNG.
My Mets also missed the playoff.
That was a little bit rough.
All right, that has been noted down.
DraftKings being down 10% today, I think, is kind of telling here.
They're probably going to pivot.
My guess is probably a buying opportunity
would be my initial read here for DraftKings.
My thought also on the Robin Hood going international.
It's interesting, but they also don't have a huge client base i don't think this goes in and i don't know how well this
does with getting new users versus getting incumbent users to spend more on the app so
that's why i don't know how much the we'll see how the international thing does my i don't know if
the international expansion for robin hood in the sports betting contracts is the is the thing necessarily i think another day of digesting what was said yesterday
about the four billion contracts so i think they take they take a flat fee on that so you can kind
of equate to necessarily where they'd be at at least where i guess the question would be where
all does robinhood already operate internationally?
I would assume the UK, I think, has got some stuff going on.
It's pretty limited, though.
Yeah, now, if the UK...
I don't think they're in Canada.
I've heard Tanner complain a bunch about it.
Okay, so if the UK gets these prediction markets, I think that's going to be huge.
There is a ton of betting that goes on in the UK.
It's very popular.
I don't know what prediction markets look like over there,
but just tapping into some of that fertile ground,
I think would be brutal for Robinhood.
There you go.
Look at that.
Tied those words together.
Would be good or bad for Robinhood?
Fruitful.
Fruitful. I thought you said brutal. Fruit be good or bad for Robinhood. Bad for Robinhood? Fruitful. Fruitful.
I thought you said brutal.
Fruitful.
I thought you said brutal.
Gotcha.
Sorry, I would just say I had a bunch of nachos with my mouth on fire.
Oh, I had nachos for lunch today as well, actually.
I had them from Moe's.
It's fine.
There you go.
The one thing I would like to hit on is Nubank, one that I've talked about on the space quite a bit.
I know Sam, I think Logical's
looked into him some as well. Maybe some others I've had a conversation with about. NewBank,
Digital Bank, Latin American, they applied for US National Bank Charter today. So that looks like
good news on the back of a lot of good news and momentum for them. So I'll continue to watch that.
I mean, I guess there's markets that penetrate there since probably a lot of good news and momentum for them. So I'll continue to watch that. I mean, I guess there's markets that penetrate there
since probably a lot of Latin American customers
might turn to them or prefer them over other banks.
I mean, I don't know.
Maybe that's just a little speculating.
But I mean, the thing's ran pretty,
like it's ran 60% since 10 bucks.
So I'm bullish,
but I think that risk reward for like that easy upside is pretty much gone
now.
I'm still in it.
I actually increased my position size today on that.
I just think it's going to open up more doors even as you're just doing the right things.
And I'm sure we'll hear from Stock Talk about Pedro.
Evan was excited to hear about the Pedro stocks. So
we'll get that he texted me he was like, Did you buy the Pedro stock? I'm like, What are
we talking about? It's a good times.
What's that Robin had though getting close to the high of day? I don't know. We'll talk
to her later. This guy was saying weird stuff. Robin Hood getting close to the high of day there.
The sportsman in conversation, I think it will be an interesting second hour convo.
I'm excited for it.
I see we got some of our friends.
Mr. Mike.
Hey, Evan.
How are you, man?
What's up, sir?
How are you doing?
I'm good.
Yourself?
Doing well.
You trading Robin Hood? You trading NVIDIA today?
What are you looking at? I do today trading video a whole bunch of times and
still oh I do I trade in video pre-market I traded video again and
during the market I trade in video three times today no longer no longer in it
I've been holding calls for a couple days there so those finally all got paid
and then added some more.
Traded CoreWeave today on that news.
Had a nice little trade on most of it.
Got wicked stop on the last one.
Stop the dollar below my stop happens.
And added some more Apple for November, 165 calls.
I didn't get hood, but hood that 10-minute explosion out of the gate was just,
I just wasn't going to chase it after yesterday's move.
What am I going to say today?
This market doesn't want to go down for all the money in the world.
This market doesn't care about a thing.
You know, markets generally, we talked about yesterday,
government shutdowns generally aren't a problem for the market,
but typically there's some type of drop or something. This market just sat there all day and then about 2 o'clock said, nope, let's go back up.
And, you know, it is what it is.
The market is strong.
Trump's been speaking all day long.
And the market just ignores everything at this point, which is fine.
So everything is good news.
Bad news is good news.
Whether we get the job numbers or not this Friday, I don't think it really matters at this point.
Even if they were bad, it would be good. I don't know.
You know, it's a lot of strength out there. Last day of the quarter, maybe a little bit more marking
up in hood and maybe a little marking up in names like NVIDIA, which hit an all-time high.
Palantir had a nice push back up today. You know, that move for CoreWeave
was huge. Meta's going to give them
a $13 billion contract. that was really big for them
today and so instead meta instead of buying lots of extra ai compute are going to basically send
their overflow over to them which is smart so maybe that helps core we do a little bit better
see if they can make some money on that i don't know i'm just kind of sitting here today waiting
for this market to try to break out of this pattern where it just
doesn't seem to want to go anywhere.
It'd be nice to get a move one way. We'd love to get a
down move. It's just tough
to get. Yeah, let's talk
about one or two of these big movers. Stock talk.
I don't want to rant, but I do want to
talk about this conversation here. Sports betting
versus prediction markets. Robinhood's
running. DraftKings down
13%. Wait, what was I looking at there?
Was I on the week? Bad time to pull me in. I'm walking
down with Leo right now.
Gotcha. That's okay.
I will talk about that though later.
I'll be back up in like 10 minutes.
That is okay.
Robinhood was a big mover today. Sam,
I've seen you talk about this one.
I'm also seeing some big movers in the other spaces. Dell was up 5% today. I'm seeing a Salesforce down 4%. I'm seeing an Eli Lilly up 5.5%. It's been a very interesting drug your take on the five. Huge movers today.
No, huge movers today in the small caps for sure.
Let's, uh, let's keep this as a big cap space.
Were you, what were you watching the Pfizer Trump, uh, thing?
Or have you, were you kind of staying on the, the general announcements that were going off today?
So, no, I don't, I don't really care about that.
Sorry. If you want, Sam, you can take it. Go ahead.
I have a, I have a bit of thoughts regarding that, basically, the pharma tariffs.
And also, we received more data from MTSR and Sarah to kind of build more on the buyout case from Pfizer.
But first on the Trump thing, so basically this is a negotiation tactic. He wants these pharma companies to onshore most of their medicinal compounding drugs
being made in the US to promote more jobs, US GDP, blah, blah, blah, and so on.
This is a negotiation tactic.
He's likely going to get what he wants.
He already got it from Eli Lilly, $6.5 billion Texas facility.
He pretty much got it from Eli Lilly, $6.5 billion Texas facility. He pretty much got it from Pfizer. He already got it from HIMSS. HIMSS doesn't really need to worry about anything
because their facilities are in California, or most of their facilities are in California.
Novo Nordisk does have facilities in the U.S., but not a lot, right? so most of that is overseas in the eu so maybe we'll see something with uh
with novo um it's a very profitable company i don't think it's really gonna impact them that
much or they'll likely figure it out so i would think this pullback in noah nordisk is quite a
good buying opportunity for much more longer term i mean you know obviously the market's not in
favor so that's just gonna be the way it is i haven't actually checked today if it's up or not.
But I know it was down yesterday by like 5% or something.
But, you know, it's a lot of fear-driven sales.
It doesn't help that it's in a bearish downtrend.
But it's going to be another one of those companies where people are going to look back
maybe in a couple of years and say that they missed that opportunity to buy Nova Norda,
similar to what happened at UNH and so on.
But, you know, at the same time, I'm quite bullish HIMSS.
I mean, it's hard to perceive whether this specific scenario is bullish for HIMSS or not because they already do have facilities in the U.S.
But at the same time, you know, it's I do think that there's a lot to be had here.
There's a lot of partnerships to be had when it comes to HIMSS selling some of their GOP
medications as well as other medications. But for the most part, HIMSS, my thesis for HIMSS is mostly in the fact
that they have an excellent application. They have a great UI. They have great customer support.
They're profitable. They're growing. They're growing pretty nicely. It's not really a stock
that I would be bearish on, especially since it's a growth stock and the market's moving up. So you have a day like today where it's moving down a little bit. It's made a huge run, 30%,
40% in the last couple of months after bouncing off the 200-day moving average around $40.
If you're going to give a little bit back, even though that news might not be directly impactful.
So that whole sector is just not necessarily doing well today. But at the same time, for Viking Therapeutics, they have a GOP oral and an injection.
And it's pretty competitive when it comes to the Eli Lilly and when it comes to Nova Nordisk
and also when it comes to MetSera.
And we've seen that Pfizer basically is going to buy out Metzera for 150% premium.
If we do a comparative analysis to that on top of the way Viking is priced in right now,
that means that the price target at 150% premium would be around $60 to $70.
It might not happen immediately.
It might take a little bit of time, but it did have quite a pullback ever since the results
from the GOP came out about a month ago and the stock basically crashed about 20, 30%
in a single day.
I think it was actually a little bit more than that.
So I'm quite bullish on Viking Therapeutics, just accumulating a position still.
At the same time, I think the floor is also not that low from here.
They are one of the leading competitors when it comes to GLP.
And even though the study did show that there was a bit of a dropout rate, it wasn't horrendous
where the drug just was not effective.
It was just a matter of decreasing the dosage on it.
So that way, you will be able to get more consumers.
You will be able to get longevity when it comes to less dropout rates.
So I'm bullish on Viking.
But overall, I think there's a bit of opportunity in the pharma space and the biotech space.
And we've seen even XBI pick up a bit of steam lately.
Logico will probably talk more about that one in general.
I know he's in a lot of the pharma companies.
But I mean, quite bullish the whole sector so far and even bullish in health care.
But I mean, quite bullish the whole sector so far and even bullish in healthcare.
Health care is considered a defensive play, not specifically biotech, but more focused on the health care giants.
But, you know, even though, well, the market just continues to go up.
So that will be more money rotating out of defensives back into growth stocks.
So go ahead, Logical.
I was going to actually jump in i want to keep us on this uh on this topic here around uh the health care announcements today i start on that
topic to see where we can end up going on um and some of the big movers eli lily wolfie i think
that's something you'd be uh you'd be watching you were watching the Trump conference. Am I right?
The Trump conference, but I did watch Lilly and I took a trade on it today.
Gotcha.
Okay.
So yeah, what I will say is it looks like Pfizer will provide, I asked AI, Pfizer will provide all of its medications to Medicaid at the most favored nation prices.
provide all of its medications to Medicaid at the most favored nation prices.
Companies expected to offer new drug prices in the US at the same internationally competitive
prices going forward.
In exchange, Pfizer will receive a three-year reprieve from potential pharmaceutical tariffs.
So as we were saying, he's kind of using the tariffs against it.
Commits to spend $70 billion overall over several years in research and development.
Obviously we've talked a lot about
you know a lot of people trying to just say big numbers in the past and do they actually end up
going through with it i'd be curious to see some numbers from the first administration i know he's
he's tried to like work some stuff in to make sure that um they end up getting like you know
they're actually like stipulations for them to actually start building this stuff to keep the non-tariffs so i think you're i think you're burying the lead um i think the read through
is uh if you if you just take take a step back and think about what they've done
in the last few months they've they've basically used netsec as a way for them to invest in companies to facilitate on-shoring, right?
So I think, you know, if you just think about it from a defense perspective or national security prioritization, then I think the no-brainer is that, you know, generics or drugs or things like that are going to be next.
So I wouldn't be shocked if some of these companies that were named in the last few days end up getting some sort of, you know, on-shoring investment or on-shoring capital from the from the United States itself.
I think I think that's kind of like how i look at
it and then the other way to look at is what sam was saying which is some of these companies that
just got acquired um that have competitors that are as good if not better you mentioned viking
vikings like uh in terms of efficacy is like 80 i think of of uh in trials, they were like 80% efficacy versus injections.
So, you know, I think that's kind of like the way I took it.
If you just take a look at some of the stocks that are running the most, they kind of, you know, fall in line with, you example, which is a generic drug maker, had like an outsized day.
And then some of these domestics, Lilly in particular, outperformed versus some of these internationals.
I think when I checked earlier, let me check again just to make sure.
Yeah, when I checked earlier, Nova was down, still down.
And then, you know, some of their competitors, which are domestic, are up significantly.
So I think that's the way that I looked at it.
And that's the way I took it.
And then people kind of flipped the coin on the Trump Rx,
how it would impact something like HIMSS.
I don't think it's bad.
I just think cost plus drugs exists.
That would be my counter to anybody who says that HIMSS is, you know, kind of effed on the back of it. But I do think that, you know, for value, like health care, pharma, you know, some of these boring grandpa, you know, health care names,
with slow and steady growth with a necessary investment
from us domestically and from the administration itself.
So I think they're kind of like in the sweet spot.
Take a look at something like Johnson & Johnson
trading like a dollar off its all time highs.
Very quiet mover in this market,
especially with everything kind of running.
But I'm not the bio guy. I'll defer.
I just kind of wanted to throw that in there on the back of your conversation.
It is interesting to see Hems down a good bit today.
We'll see how much follow-through there is
on these medical-type headlines.
I definitely don't want to...
I want to keep it on topic here today
and not just run through a bunch of different names
and stuff that have moved, but if you have
any thoughts on the medical stuff today,
then we can move on, logical.
No, I don't really care about
all this pharma tariff stuff. What I can just say
on the topic is that he's been talking
about it back and forth, and he's a big talker,
and, you know, I would just look at price
action in the sector, and nobody takes this guy seriously whatever he says what do you think of fizer and
eli lily being up big today that's what i'm saying nobody cares anymore this guy has said
everything and nobody you know i mean like it's like whenever he remember back in april about the
tariff stuff and then oh we're gonna get these tariffs and then oh we're gonna walk those back
and now it's 200 like his words just don't matter remember a few weeks ago he said we oh, we're going to get these tariffs. And then, oh, we're going to walk those back. And then now it's 200%. Like, his words just don't matter.
Remember a few weeks ago, he said, we're going to reduce drug prices by 1,000%.
First off, buddy.
He said that today.
Yeah, you can only reduce drug prices by 100%.
So it doesn't make any mathematical sense either.
I just think his words don't mean much.
I think I keep sticking to that one, honestly.
He stuck to the today.
He said multiple times, like, we're going to lower it by 100%, and in some cases even more.
Okay, so, yeah, I mean, I saw that, like, one of the biggest...
He said the 1,000% one, too.
Yeah, which makes no sense mathematically.
But also, like, on the midterms, I think it said that, like, affordable healthcare is probably the highest on the list outside of affordable housing.
So now everyone is shifting to the midterms
because that's happening next year.
So yeah, and we're almost at the end of 25, right?
I mean, it's been a year since the election,
which is crazy to think.
And yeah, I mean, I just think it's a lot of BS,
you know, whatever. we'll see what happens
you know how this guy is he'll be like
he'll say oh we're gonna you know tax
China 200% and then all of a sudden we end up
losing the tariff war so yeah
anyways
what's up Godfather and then we'll move on
I do want to talk about the sports betting stuff honestly
yeah I just I wanted to
piggyback on what Logical was saying there
I do think it's a lot about the midterms.
You look at where the administration's been focusing here.
You know, obviously cutting drug prices affects a lot of Americans.
And we saw the same thing with, you know, these initiatives by the administration on coal yesterday.
Right. You know, 625 million out of the DOE for coal power generation.
I know this is needed for the power grid for,
you know, AI data centers and all the rest of it. But, you know, there's obviously a lot of
voters in Wyoming, Tennessee, and these other coal areas where, you know, coal was like 50%
of US power production 25 years ago. It's now like 15% that are happy to see this kind of thing.
And, you know, you're seeing it now on the drug side.
I think logical is bang on the next. And you've heard me say this time and time again.
The next segment is is going to be housing affordability and they're going to pull whatever
levers they can through the existing government agencies, be they buying mortgages or increasing
loan guarantees or what have you,
since they don't seem to be getting anywhere with the Fed with respect to the cadence of rate
lowering that they want to see. So anyway, that's my biggest takeaway from all these headlines. And
I'd also point out that there's some really nice action in some of the single stock ETF on Lilly
today, in particular, LLYX,
for a name, a little more leverage
that might not be on everybody's radar screen.
Yeah, that is interesting and logical.
I know you've also talked about the home builder play.
I know you described that one as kind of like,
listen, you could just throw a dart
and something's going to work in that one
where I know you've talked about medical stuff
being a lot more selective.
Open door has really grabbed a lot of people's interest it is down a little bit today uh i feel like that's the the reason it's in the right area so it's a hard one
to short right now i'm sure a lot of you guys i'm sure there's some even big open door fans
you got the wind at your back would be my guess i've been playing it a little bit more through
rkt but that does seem like a theme that is going to continue,
especially with rates also coming down.
Yeah.
Yeah, I mean, I just, again, with home builders and stuff,
I just think that the issue is that you really need either something to
cooperate from the macro sense and you're not getting it.
So, you know, it's all tied to the long end.
Long end, right?
So what's the 10 10 year at right now?
10 years at 4.15 ever since they cut rates, basically the 10 year was down to four.
Now it's up 15 bips or whatever.
So, um, you know, the idea is that you can't have housing, you know, unlock when the 10
year and the long end are stubborn like that.
So you need ways to get the 10 year down or, you know, the long end are stubborn like that. So you need ways to get
the 10-year down or the long end down, or you need a way to compress the mortgage spreads,
which right now are at historic highs. I mean, I think they're probably, from what I've heard,
going to allow banks to expand their balance sheets and take on more mortgage-backed securities,
which should help compress that spread.
So maybe that's going to help maybe, I don't know, up to 50 bips.
But even then, right?
I'm just thinking you need some sort of maybe fiscal stimulus or a home builder incentives
or something for the sector to work.
I guess that's all I'm trying to say is that you need something to unlock this.
And I think we can all agree that inflation is still quite sticky.
And, you know, it's not like the economy is going to roll over when you're running basically record level fiscal deficit spending.
So, yeah, you need something to give.
Look, logically, you're right in terms of, you know, everyone's looking at the 10 year.
And none of these mortgage names or housing names really work until, you know, the 10 year starts to break below four. But
look, you know, we've already heard, you know, Besant or Trump's through Besant or even Trump,
you know, saying, you know, there may be this housing emergency declared, you know, there's,
it was explicit and said, you know, we want to get 30 year MBS from like, you know, 635 down to 5% by midterms.
And, you know, I'm not sure what you're saying with respect to MBS spreads, because they've
actually narrowed, because there's speculation in the market that Trump's going to lift current
caps on, you know, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's ability to buy MBS. There's potential for up to
like, you know, a trillion dollars worth of MBS buying there. If he can't pressure the Fed into,
you know, using its balance sheet to buy MBS, you know,
he does have more control over these government agencies.
And then, of course, you've got Ginnie Mae in terms of, you know, they can play around with mortgage guarantees.
So there are levers that can be pulled.
You know, you want to watch, obviously, the 10-year, but you also want to watch, you know,
these ETFs like Nail, et cetera.
And, you know, I just think there's only so much that can be on the agenda.
You know, drugs, coal, you name it.
Housing is coming, and I think it's coming in the fourth quarter.
Mike?
You know, while we're sitting here, Target, evidently there's private equity interest in Target being reported here by Fox Business News.
So Target flying and calls coming in.
So that was like a $40 million company.
That's a that's a great setup from a technical perspective.
Target, if you just pull up a chart, it's trading right back where it was in April.
It undercut it last week and it's basically holding that level today so basically you get along against today's lows it's about as good of a technical stuff of
course that that news might have just saved it today exactly maybe that news was purposely put
out exactly but it gives you gives you as clean a technical setup as you're gonna get
yeah i'm seeing this post out interesting there it's got some nice couple candles in
their target target as some people would go in and call it yeah no there's a good talk there
on on some of those home builders core weave is another name that is standing out when I'm
looking at my watch this here core weave is a name that is standing out when I'm looking at my watch list here. CoreWeave is a name that is running this morning.
They had a story.
What was it?
Let me get this back in front of me.
CoreWeave this morning signed a deal with Meta to give them as much as, well, it's worth
as much as $14.2 billion worth of computing power.
That's probably some of the reason that NVIDIA was running today.
We got any CoreWeave watchers up here?
Anyone's interested in this space?
Before I just throw it at someone?
Didn't we talk about this when I started?
Yeah, you talked about it, Mike.
Evan was distracted.
What'd you say?
We talked about the Meta deal, which is good
for them, and
Meta's doing something smart. Instead of keeping to buy
more and more AI compute power, they're going to offload excess to core weave when they need to i think it's a
good move for both a great move for core weave what is even happening here though like there's
all these talks around the circular thing and like what even is core weave i do know what they are
they're renting out supply and they're giving demand or supply
To these hyperscalers
When they need it
There's just a lot of really huge deals
And huge stuff being thrown around
And it's hard to see
A lot of it may never come to pass
So it's like the Oracle money
Will or they will
Well they're signing a contract Worth up to $14 billion over X years.
But whether they use it or not is up to whether they need it or not.
They may or may not use it or they may use some of it.
They don't know how much of that money is actually going to come through.
It's not a guaranteed contract.
Okay. So it's just a big it's a good contract but it's it's well you know they're gonna do some of it but it's a great employee but how much of it is i want to work with him
is the question mark zekkerberg he's great he's spending a lot of money a lot of money
he probably needs some extra demand i don't know if we saw all these Sora 2 video generation apps.
I know GPUs are getting more efficient.
But my first thought was, wow, that looks expensive.
It looks pretty and nice, but it does look expensive.
So we might need more of these CoreWeave chips.
I think the other interesting thing there in terms of the read-through for these HPC companies
or these Bitcoin miners that are converting their power to HPC
is that you've seen a slew of upgrades to Cypher, for example,
post this deal with this middleman to Google.
And they previously had this financing arrangement with Fortress,
and everyone was concerned that they were going to give away
most of the economics in terms of having Fortress pay for most of the capex. But what's transpired is
that the bond market is so receptive. I mean, they were issuing 0% converts here. And then,
of course, they're doing covered call. So they're getting a nice price, an extra nice price.
But this has been sort of the backbone of all these upgrades.
And, you know, you saw all of these names pump at the open, the TerraWolfs and Cyphers and the IRNs.
Most of them faded throughout the day. this is just another deal showing that, you know, this AI grab for power and, and computing is,
is not relenting.
I mean, I would just, I would have just bought NVIDIA,
but I'm also not the one who's going in and going in and buying some of this other stuff, I guess. I get it. I do get it.
I think it just shows how extreme
the demand is still in this space.
Anyone who wants to come in
and make the argument that it isn't...
I don't know.
I don't know.
I guess I understand why NVIDIA is making these highs today.
NVIDIA isn't the only one making
any highs. Look at Alibaba
who's made a four-year high yesterday.
And then we saw this headline aftermarket yesterday.
What's happening today?
Huawei doubling their AI chip production.
So, you know, it's across the globe.
Baba is down a little bit today, but still it's been acting pretty strong.
I know the China names have definitely been one of the hot themes over the last little bit.
I am on the one-hour chart on Bob,
but I just kept zooming out,
and it is just a lineup over the last little bit.
This is quite the move, basically, over the last month.
Yeah, it was impressive.
But yeah, this CoreWeave thing, I get it.
I mean, I get what's happening a little bit, I guess,
but all the arguments on why not NVIDIA and all those stuff,
it just seems like you just, when we get a pullback,
these are the ones that are going to see it first.
Which kind of tells me there's no pullback.
I don't know.
Stock Talk, you got any thoughts on CoreWeave?
Yeah, I don't understand.
What are you confused about?
I'm just confused on just kind of...
I mean, I can help you explain it because I've realized on Twitter a lot of people are like...
It's not anything with this deal, CoreWeave specifically.
It's just kind of, what are we doing here?
You know, is it like...
Yeah, I mean, it's pretty simple what we're doing here.
I'll explain it.
So you have a couple of players in the AI ecosystem right now.
I call it a supply chain.
I call it an ecosystem because it's not really a supply chain.
But you have the hyperscalers who are spending all the money.
Then you have NVIDIA who's making all the chips.
Well, TSM is making all the chips.
NVIDIA is designing all the chips.
And then you have a slew of thousands, really hundreds for the most better part of the last two years.
But it's going to be thousands of businesses that want to deploy AI now meant most of them are
just going to take the route of you know either deploying an open source model or
even taking a closed source model and just using it in a specialized way for
whatever they need that's what most businesses are gonna do but there's
going to be some businesses that want compute for their own purposes internally.
That's like probably going to be larger businesses.
Now, in this ecosystem of players, the hyperscalers have done the spearheading.
They've spent the first 500 or so billion dollars on AI infrastructure. And what they're beginning to
realize is that there are, this is with regard to the HPC guys, there are sites out there that can
be repurposed for HPC. We're talking about the Bitcoin mining sites. And there are other players
who have the talent, knowledge, and ability to deploy and scale data centers rapidly on behalf of the hyperscalers
okay there are many types of those companies there's core weave there's nebius there's some
of the btc mining hbt so a corey is that they're making corey is making the facilities themselves
is that what's happening with core weaver well now you're getting into the nuance so it depends
there there are some outright owned facilities.
There are other facilities that are leased on contract.
The same way that, what's a good, oh, you know what's a great analogy for this, to explain it simply, is what I was talking about with GXO Logistics last week.
Okay.
When I was talking about GXO Logistics last week, I said, hey, they don't build the robots of the warehouses.
They deploy the warehouses on behalf of customers for a multi-year logistics fee. This isn't quite an analogy to that, but you can think about it
similarly. And you can say, look, these guys are either providing the power and the site,
or providing the site, or providing the power, or like they're providing one component of the
data center operation. And in some cases, they're providing all of the components,
like in the nebbiest Microsoft deal.
So...
But like CoreWeave, their thing is they are just buying GPUs.
CoreWeave is an optional add-on for spillover compute.
So Meta knows that all of the compute they're going to need
for the next however many years.
I forgot how long the CoreWeave agreement was. Was it four or five years? I forgot how long the core weave agreement was. Was it
four or five years? I forgot. But whatever the duration of the agreement that was announced this
morning, for that period of time, Meta is saying, look, out of the infrastructure that we have,
the data center infrastructure, we may need more. Right. And that's what that deal is. And it's
also similar to what the deals that Google has started to ink in the BTC, HBC
space, where they have options.
And in many cases, they have warrants they can exercise if those options are exercised
in order to use the sites or deploy at the sites.
And then again, there's varying levels of sophistication along this.
There are some companies that only have the sites and don't have the power and they're
getting obviously less paper builds. There's other companies that have the power and the site
and the talent. They're getting even better deals. So, you know, you have to find, in my view,
you have to know these companies well and know which companies are capable of doing what you
think they're doing. Because there's a lot of stuff on Twitter where people are speculating
about companies doing things that they are simply not capable of doing.
And it wouldn't take you a long time to figure that out.
You just have to, you know, do a little bit of reading, which I know people don't like to do.
But that's how you can figure out which of these companies are actually capable of doing what they're promising.
Because keep in mind, every HPC company in the world right now is promising a hyperscaler deal.
Every one.
Do you think they're all going to get them?
At this rate, maybe.
No, they're not.
They're not.
The reality is, okay, with Microsoft's Nebius deal, if you actually go and read the details of the deal, which, again, most people just read the headlines and don't read the details, it's a validation of Nebius' data center business.
It is essentially Microsoft saying,
we believe you can spend this $17 billion more effectively than we can on data center.
That is a huge concession for companies.
Can you ask me?
Wait, can you answer?
What does Nebius do?
Nebius does a lot of things.
They do data center deployment.
They do data center development.
They have three additional arms to their business.
They have AVRIDE, which does autonomous robots.
They have Toloka, which is their data business.
When we were in Austin, Texas,
we saw the AVRide robots
going around. Yes, they're awesome.
The AVRide robots are actually one of the widest
deployed delivery robots in the world, actually.
What do they do for them?
Delivery. Food delivery.
So what?
They have a little kid
sitting in the thing?
What does Nebius do um they make them and deploy them they own they own av right in titan in its entirety they also own an ai data business
called taloka which jeff bezos invests in i've talked about all these things evan how many times
have you talked heard me talk about nebius the first time i you do too many rants that the
the individual ones i don't read about too many stocks though i have a very very relatively small
basket of names so i ran 30 billion dollar company wow it's bigger than i thought they also they also
have triple five billion dollar company when we bought it they also have triple ten which is
mostly an education suite but a big
one that i think people heard about it before but then they forgot about it but you already know
about the stock talk it's click house they have a 20 that's my favorite company and that that
that is really important because i don't think they plan to keep that for a long time they might
they'll sell their yeah they're going to sell their steak but that this is this is in line with a lot of the data mining companies that you have out there like snowflake and also
databricks as well like that that tam is expanding quickly and that's growing as well and they don't
need to keep for long like even the ceo of laws archive man i can't i cannot pronounce the guy's
name but he said that he's you know they don't plan to keep it you know if have to, they'll sell it to fund their operations because they're going to need the funding.
And it was actually pretty interesting because after that Microsoft deal for $17.4 billion,
which has that extra $3 billion in case they need it, if they need to raise funds, they will.
And they did.
And I feel like the market is like, yeah, it got bought hard.
I was actually hoping it dropped lower,
but it barely even dropped.
It's not going to budge now, dude.
You're talking about a company that just in May
was a $5 or $6 billion company
and just got a $17 billion deal.
The sellers are not going to show up.
The thing though is everything,
so what took us from $5 billion to $28 billion,
$30 billion, whatever it is now,
it's probably almost exclusively the data center.
It's almost exclusively what?
It would be the data center business, correct?
No, no, no.
That's where they sign big deals.
That's not correct.
The NetBea story was much more than a data center business.
Everyone thinks that this story was just about getting the Microsoft deal.
If you go back and look at my tweets from May on this stock,
the thesis was that this was the best positioned AI midcap.
When you looked at all the AI midcaps in May, it's a bunch of shitcos.
It's like ticker, that ticker AI, BBAI.
It's like all these companies that have just like put on the AI badge with their shitcos.
Nebius, if you did your work, you knew was not a shitco.
If you did your work, you knew was not a shit code.
They have a deeply talented team with like over a decade in AI experience in an industry that's basically brand new.
But the thesis on Nebius was that they had multiple quality businesses that were likely worth multiple billions each.
I'm talking about their subsidiaries.
And the stock was trading at like a $5 billion market cap.
The valuation was nonsensical the reason that people didn't pick up on nebius in may people
who didn't do the work or even the chart guys didn't pick up on it the reason why is because
you go look at the balance sheet or you go look at the earnings and didn't make sense the numbers
didn't make sense people like why is the company trading at a six billion dollar valuation with no
earnings but those people obviously did not know the story.
They didn't know that Nebius owns 28% of ClickHouse, that they own Toloka in its entirety,
that they own AVRide in its entirety. These are multi-billion dollar businesses. AVRide is a
globally deployed autonomous robotics business that actually has real customers and actually
delivers real products. That's a multi-billion dollar business. ClickHouse, probably a 15 to $20 billion business.
They own 30% of it.
So everyone was staring at the stock going,
oh my God, they don't make enough revenue
for the market cap to make sense.
It doesn't make any sense.
And the stock went higher and higher and higher and higher
and is now 120 bucks or whatever it is.
And it was $23 in May.
But that was the story.
The story was never about the data center business.
The story for Nebius was, yeah, they might win a data center contracter deal right so nebius was a quality
ai company that won a data center deal to drive an additional upside in its valuation on the
contrary most of the other hpc companies out there are shit codes that are pretending to be ai
companies that's the difference they're bitcoin miners or whatever and they're like hey we're an
ai company we're an hpc company that's the. Nebius was an HPC company from the get-go that had a diversified set of AI assets that are worth a lot in this market environment.
So that's the Nebius story. Nebius to me is like the sort of, or was a mid-cap, not anymore now it's a large cap, but was the mid-cap king of AI and is now like, you know, sort of a young prince in the AI space.
king of AI and is now
sort of a young prince in the AI space.
Their management team is firing
on all cylinders
plus one. It's just an incredible
management team.
This AI
wave has definitely
continued to pick up going. There are some
points that are very interesting
right now.
Interesting days.
Just to switch us off a little bit, we don't need to go too far
into this. We do have Nike reporting earnings after the close today. The numbers should be
out around 4.15 p.m. Eastern, so in about 30 minutes, but we do have the market closing in
15 minutes or so. Wall Street's expecting revenue around $11 billion, which would be down from last
year. Same quarter last last year they reported revenue
of looks like 11.6 billion and eps would be 27 cents and that would also be down for last year
i do not know they announced this kim kardashian skin collab thing i know stock talk was very
excited about that one but uh who knows with all the sydney sweeney stuff and other things going
around you never know what
collabs could invigorate a brand but nike does report earnings today after the close it's important
to note that came in literally on like friday so that was pretty much the end of the quarter
this would be outside the numbers nike would be reporting for but nike earnings coming up after the close today it's moving higher now it's it's uh green is at
69.82 69.82 is where nike is at in general my portfolio is moving a little higher here as we
head towards the close it's nice we got any nike watchers or fans as a part of the panel i mean i
love nike as a brand but i don't think I've touched the stock in a long time.
Do you actually still like it as a brand?
Yeah, I mean, I love Nike as a brand.
Me too.
See, people seem to not think it's cool anymore, though.
I still think Nike's dope.
I mean, the thing with now what's happening
is that athleisure has become sort of its own category.
It's bellowed into its own category.
And I think in the wake of Lululemon,
people thought that was going to happen.
But Lululemon was really the first global company
to sort of embrace athleisure as like its own category
and like model the entire business around it.
But now you have like Arterix,
you have so many emerging athleisure brands,
many of them priced at half of of globally branded competitors that's tough to
compete with like i i've never understood their apparel business from an investor standpoint from
a growth investor standpoint i've never been a fan of the apparel business i've never owned an
apparel company as an investment ever i don't think i ever will same thing with like food
companies like um i know i know qsr has opened up like a new category of food stocks but same I don't think I ever will. Same thing with like food companies. Like, um, I know,
I know QSR has opened up like a new category of food stocks,
but same thing with food companies for me.
I just can't like,
can't wrap my mind around the businesses.
I like businesses that have like a knife that they can use to carve their
space out in the industry.
And I just can never envision that in apparel and food.
So I stay away from those.
I'm not only a tech guy,
but those industries specifically, I stay away from. Well, well i don't know i think it's just a different thing
that cuts through like food quality is harder to identify the knife though you know what i mean
i what i've seen clearly is people don't enjoy investing in the food companies and food stocks
like that maybe there's some that rise towards the top but people are just not if i could find
a clear edge i would be fine with it i don't really care that much about the top, but people are just not interested in it. If I could find a clear edge, I would be fine with it. I don't really care that much about the types of companies I'm interested in.
It's not like I look at it and go, oh, well, apparel's boring.
I just find it hard to identify the knife.
What I mean by that is, like, I don't even mean it as a moat,
but, like, there's a thing that companies use.
Sometimes it's the technology.
Sometimes it's, like, a really all-star CEO.
But there's a knife, you know?
I like to think of it as a knife.
And they use that knife to like carve their portion of the market share out.
And sometimes it takes years, but you can usually see the knife in the early stages.
Like, yep, they have a knife.
And that's kind of how I like to think of these smaller mid-cap companies.
You know who has a knife?
They have a knife, yeah.
Do you know who has a fat knife? a knife yeah you know it's a fat
knife who a draft kings down 13 percent knife okay i'm guessing you want to talk about that
because you wanted you tapped me on it earlier so let's just get it let's just talk about that
then let's get it out of the way no i thought it was just a good i thought it was just a great
segue opportunity i was just kind of proud of myself there we are now that you brought it up
um so yes the draft the gambling names are weak today even genius sports is weak today um
that one doesn't make sense that one's obviously yeah so i i've been doing some research last
couple days on this because this has been coming up more and more now like this whole
idea of gambling betting markets versus sports books.
I did some research on it today.
And from what I could gather,
I don't know if this is 100% accurate,
but there's a company that Robinhood has used in the past,
and so has CallSheets for sports betting data,
that is going to sound silly,
that apparently has employees that attend games live all over the country
and tabulate the scores.
Now, I don't know if they're still using that,
but if they are, that is not scalable, obviously.
And if you're taking in millions of bets, you're not going to do that.
So the question
becomes is this an overreaction ingenious i think probably because the likelihood that they become
real sports betting players without using the master data feed to me is very very low now there
may be a workaround that i am not aware of which could be a thing i don't know but based on what
i've seen it felt like an overreaction today. Now, as far as the actual sports betting names,
like the reaction, the actual sports betting names, like DraftKings, I don't know if that's
an overreaction because we talked about this a few weeks ago, actually this specific topic,
we talked about it for like 30 minutes and I gave a whole rant on it. But the point I made was,
was that in this space, because of how dirty of a customer acquisition war it's been for years, these guys are coming to a point now where they have to decide, are we going to operate under the assumption that Kalshi and Polymarket will be handled by regulators and that this is just a temporary blip in competition
that we don't need to worry about either they make that assumption which i think is a dangerous
assumption to make right it's always a dangerous assumption to say yeah regulators will ban it or
take care of it because you don't know that for sure the alternative is they just buy them
like just make a move now and buy them at a market premium and hope that they say yes that's
that's the decision that draft kings is put into right now that's probably the the decision that
basically any online sports book is put into right now like are people going to prefer just doing it
this way and not just prefer it from a consumer preference standpoint but preferred in terms of
access too right like people like i in texas can't bet, but you can use Polymarket and call sheet.
Texas has a lot of people.
So, you know, do those 30 million people just by default prefer betting through odds markets because it's available to them?
I don't know.
So this is a new I would say this is in the last
three months this has become a real concern for las vegas and for in general for for online books
i don't want to say las vegas because that more so refers to physical casinos but even for them
maybe even for the physical casinos maybe this is just another layer of removal from the physical
casino marketplace now for the for, for the digital books,
now they're looking over their shoulders saying, like, how much market share is this going to eat?
How quickly is it going to eat the market share? And perhaps the most important question of all,
when will be too late to pull the trigger? Because at a certain point, it's always too
late to pull the trigger. And the analogy that I brought up for this sports betting conversation,
last time we talked about it, was the Zuckerberg acquisition of Instagram. And I'm sure people
have read, I'm not, by the way, I'm not likening Kalshi and Pauly Market to Instagram. I think
Instagram was a much bigger piece of technology at the time. But the thought process behind the
M&A should be similar here, which is that what Zuckerberg said in the leaked messages was basically that, hey, we either buy them now for a billion, which might seem rich, or we risk them becoming a much bigger company in the near future.
That's what Zuckerberg said in those famous leaked messages from when he acquired Instagram.
Now, what's the thought process behind there?
Well, at the time, was Instagram worth a billion dollars?
I mean, I don't know.
You could argue with whoever about that. I mean, at the time was Instagram worth a billion dollars? I mean, I don't know you can argue with whoever about that
I mean at the time in the status quo who knows maybe maybe there was a debate to be had around that
In fact people Zuckerberg was talking to said he was paying a premium now in hindsight
He obviously did not pay a premium right in hindsight that acquisition was was brilliant for Facebook, but
In the status quo what he was thinking was okay
I either buy them now for billion, or
maybe Instagram becomes the new thing. And maybe people stop using Facebook and just prefer
Instagram. And then I'm screwed altogether. Then my market cap goes down, Instagram's market cap
goes up and an acquisition either becomes impossible or becomes far less likely. And so now
DraftKings and Kalshi and Polymarket are in the same soup. And DraftKings is probably sitting there,
I would imagine, in the last three or four weeks, their board is probably sitting there like,
should we buy them? And if we do make an offer, what should it be? And how much of a premium are
we going to need to pay to really get them off a fee? Because Call Street probably feels like the prince in the room right now.
They're probably like, oh, we're getting market share within two months of launch.
Like, that's a pretty big feat.
And if they can hang their hat on that and be like, OK, let's keep pushing.
Let's double down our partnership with Robin.
Let's go to every commission free broker in the country.
Let's let people bet with money where they already have it on their brokerage
apps. They could just double down on that and really, really pick up steam quickly.
So the sports betting space is a very, very interesting space right now over the next six
months. I think there's going to be a ton of volatility up and down on those names because
there's going to be fears around that. And and down on those names because there's going to be
fears around that. And I think rightfully so. It's a it's a legitimate industry catalyst. I don't
want to dismiss this. Sometimes there's narratives that can emerge that are worth dismissing. In fact,
99 percent of the shit you hear people talk about is just worth ignoring. But sometimes there are
narratives that come up that are worth paying attention to. This is one of them. And this will change the industry, the way the industry operates.
Obviously, the simplest solution here, the rip the bandaid off solution,
is that regulators just say, no, can't support spread through prediction markets anymore.
That would just end the whole thing right there.
But if that doesn't happen, then it becomes really complicated
and probably becomes an attempt at M&A that main, I mean,
Kalshi might just big, you know, I don't want to say that word, but Kalshi might just step
into the room and be like, we're not taking your money.
Like, we don't want to be bought out.
And that could make it more interesting.
What a close.
Yeah.
What a close.
Yeah, this is, I don't know, while we were talking here, we were, we are ripping a little
bit.
We are ripping a little bit. We are ripping a little bit.
Yeah, I know.
Nice little close.
I think this is a really interesting conversation because also I'd be intrigued to see what happens with Robin in here and their role as they've just been going through Koushi.
Is that a relationship that continues and thrives and stuff like that?
Who's really pulling the weight on that one?
Robinhood's pulling the weight. Let's make no mistake the weight on that one? Robin Hood's pulling the weight.
Let's make no mistake.
On the volume side, Robin Hood's pulling the weight.
I mean, think about how many kids with the Robin Hood app installed
are just sitting on their couch on Sunday.
They're all betting on sports.
If you saw, like 95% of this is on sports,
which is why I feel like...
That's what I'm saying.
Genius is probably still safe, but...
Yeah, that's what I'm saying genius is probably still safe but yeah i that's what i think i think
genius still like i this is the thing i don't know in this equation i want to be clear about what i
know and what i don't know i know this industry well i know all the industries i invest in well
but this is what i don't know i don't know if they can offer more comprehensive betting props
without using the master data feed in my mind they can't but i also
don't know like i don't know if there's workarounds to that or whatever right and i also think like
a certain extent if the business is big enough why cheap out like if they are using a third
party provider for data today which if they're not using genius they have to be like if this
becomes the scale of a multi-billion dollar operation, you're not going to use the master data feed with zero latency.
Like I would imagine you would want to.
So yeah,
from that perspective,
I think it's probably an overreaction,
but I have such a deep cost base advantage on genie.
I don't really worry about the day-to-day volatility that much.
The monthly charge still looks perfectly fine.
you know,
it was down today,
but that was whatever.
I'm just going to go ahead and knock out all,
all the stuff I was going to talk about today and then we can circle
around because I'm already
rolling. Nike earnings 415 by the way
and then the market close here, that's the end of the quarter
so a lot of window dressing that could also
be what this is going into it.
Nike 415 by the way.
You know what I always say about window
dressing is you want to see your windows being dressed.
Nvidia with a beautiful move into the that mean i'm saying like you know people just miss end of quarter action because
they go it's window dressing and i'm like yeah but you still want to see your windows being
dressed right like you want to see your stocks being bid in those moments you know yeah it's
window dressing but price action matters either way it doesn't matter like if it's if charts are saving themselves at key spots on end of the quarter action
don't just write it off because it's end of the quarter action right still it's still
significant when you put it in the context of the broader chart so i like a lot of the moves
that happened today honestly um there were a lot of one another one other story then let's go into
it there was a story a couple days ago that occidental was in talks to sell its
petrochemicals division for 10 billion dollars wsj put out an article while you're talking that
apparently warren buffett and berkshire hathaway probably more berkshire hathaway than warren
buffett are reportedly ones and talks for the deal which would be their largest deal since 2022. $10 billion. I mean, this is a little
significant, I think, because we've all been watching his cash pile grow and see when they're
going to end up making moves. And I guess petrochemicals, Occidental's petrochemical
business is the one that got them to make a little bit over the edge. I don't know that much
about it, but I thought the Warren Buffett name. We are
coming into the market close here any second now, Stock Talk. You can go into it. Ding, ding, ding,
ding. We'll upgrade the bell someday. Yeah, yeah. So yeah, today was obviously a great day.
I talked yesterday about the only small cap that was in my portfolio, which was DPRO.
And some of you may have seen, they got some pretty big validation news this morning from the U.S. Army to deploy their drone.
What is D-Pro?
I did not listen to this one, but I don't think I was here.
This is such a bad look, Evan, because I talk about the stock like 10 times.
I don't think I was here with D-Pro.
You probably were here, but it's okay.
Anyway, D-Pro is a small-cap drone company.
They do heavy lift drones, and they have for a while,
because they have a Canadian...
$25 million.
Yeah, well, I think the market cap on that is incorrect i believe on um
i believe it's listed at one as 152 on other sources but i don't know it depends on the free
flow calculation but anyway they uh we got long on it at 519 um back in when was the entry here
a while ago a couple weeks ago uh not very long ago but a couple weeks ago
we along at 519 stock was trading as high as nine or over nine bucks today it was up as much as 30
off the open because it closed up about 17 um the stock posted more volume this quarter than its
entire five-year history combined i posted that chart about four days ago noting that i said when a stock posts
its highest volume in one quarter than the whole stock combined you should probably pay attention
and then two days later they get the army contract so good timing i guess on that but
yeah it was september 26th that i put that tweet out i'll pin it at the top
um but this is a name that me and mystic is an analyst on our server. He's a very good friend of mine. I don't like share ideas or like follow ideas from anyone except for like two guys.
And that's Mystic and Yonezu.
Those are the two guys that I'm constantly talking to about stocks.
They think about stocks the same way I do.
They're original idea guys.
In other words, they do their own research.
You know, they don't read other
people's ideas on Twitter. Like I always look for the guys that are OGs with their idea generation.
And those two guys have been friends for mine for years. And I respect them both a lot. I talked to
them a lot about socks. So back on September 9th and 10th and 11th, me and Mystic were like DMing
every day about D-Pro. And we were like, dude, is this just
mispriced? We were looking at the peers and ONDS, RMAC, UCAT, they were all trading at like $1.5
billion valuations. Be mindful that most of these drone names don't have much revenue or any at all,
right? They have a couple million dollars in quarterly revenue. But they're all trading at
inflated valuations because obviously drones are going to be a huge thing. The U.S. government has made it very clear that they're prioritizing
drone manufacturing. So there's been a ton of... There was a story today. Trump came out and said
that he plans to spend a trillion dollars. Or was it a trillion? Yeah, there was a whole speech
about defense spending, U.S. Navy ships. I'm going to talk about all that later too with Huntington
when I go into Huntington. But yeah, I'm going to touch on that.
But yeah, so there's clearly been an initiative by the U.S. government to build drones.
And you've seen how Aerobirman's done, which is really the drone leader.
You've seen how Kratos has done, which is another sort of drone leading stock.
Both those names are up substantially, are trading at pretty crazy PEs now.
I'm obviously still along Kratos.
That's the core position in my aerospace and defense basket.
But I did add this small cap name a couple of weeks ago, and I'm glad I did because the stock has basically doubled since in a few weeks and now got a major, major validation from the U.S. Army this morning.
Keep in mind, this is a company that for this size of a company, this is a significant thing, but the U.S. Army agreed to start a program with Dragonfly this morning to build and manufacture drones on U.S. bases.
So not build them in a factory, but to build and manufacture them on U.S. bases, which I think is exactly what this type of company and these types of drones need.
And I think is a huge tailwind for
their deployment. So I wasn't surprised the stock was up so much today. In fact, I'm surprised it
didn't close even higher. The fact that it closed up 17%, I think, is a bit of an underreaction,
frankly. But I think this thing continues to trend much, much higher. With this cost basis,
I don't think I'm going to be a seller on this thing anytime soon. I have such a huge cost
basis advantage now on this in three weeks that I can ride it pretty comfortably but this is a validation this is what this is how small caps work you know
there are moments of validation for their technology that are really really important
now here's the rub with dpro this wasn't even the catalyst that me and mystic were looking for
right so that we got this catalyst today but this wasn't even the catalyst we were looking for. We were looking for a catalyst around the T-Rex program, which D-Pro is the only small cap drone company in the world that's on the T-Rex program.
could come who knows when and so you know when when this does rear its head I
think there could be another catalyst on the horizon right and for people that
don't know that T-rex program it's the DOD's technology readiness
readiness experimentation program for next generation defense they their
abbreviation is T-rex technology technological readiness experimentation
program but anyway that, that's the
catalyst we're looking for. So sometimes you're waiting for a catalyst and you get a different one
and you're like, oh, that's validation. So I think that was fantastic for Deep Road today.
That stock has just soared and waiting in my portfolio. It started off, I think,
as three and a half or four and a half percent. That thing's like soared and waiting to over
8% now. So that's what happens when a stock performs but yeah little small cap name climbing its way
up in my portfolio uh but been a beauty it's an absolute beauty today um and but not even just
today it's just done nothing but go up since we bought it so i don't even want to highlight just
today as important but dpro has just been a monster stock just just a comment there because i've known the
founder for um a couple of decades as a canadian um he's a notorious promoter um this is a low
float stock you can't borrow it short it um you'll note that there was no dollar amount in this
contract and this isn't the first time that they've announced contracts without dollar amounts. You actually dig into the SEC filings and look at their numbers. And there
aren't a lot of dollar amounts there either. So, you know, it doesn't mean you can't make money.
But, you know, on a spectrum of credibility, there really isn't a lot to most of these small
cap drone companies, which you actually pointed out.
But I do think that there's a place in a portfolio for a barbell approach where you can,
you know, knowing what you own and I'm with you, I own some of these smaller cap names.
Our community was early on Red Cat and made a bunch of money on UMAC again today and so on.
I don't think a lot of these valuations are defensible, but, you know, I've anchored that like you have with the other side of the portfolio with the guys that are, you know, leaders in hypersonic, et cetera, like
Carmen and Kato, et cetera. So, but, you know, keep those things in mind. You know, if somebody
actually ends up being able to find some stock to short on this
thing um you know you could see some near-term volatility but um yeah five million in float um
this kind of news the u.s army uh it's going to do what it's going to do and um yeah um
don't marry it yeah i don't think you should ever marry a small cap if you don't want to there's
always risk caveats but um yeah these these companies have diluted in the past i think uavs has a much
much poorer history of doing that dpro's dilution history has actually been relatively decently
timed um and i expect dilution with small caps but i think the t-rex program could be a major
major validation for them so i am remaining long on that name
with a nice cost basis cushion. But yeah, the chart is to me speaking volumes. You don't post
highest ever quarterly volume on a stock like that with 50X the quarterly volume, unless there's
somebody interested. And there haven't been enough insider sales to justify that level of volume
either.
So somebody's buying this thing in droves and has been buying this thing in droves for
the entire quarter.
It has my opinion, the nicest volume profile of any small cap in the entire market and
did as of three weeks ago.
So that's a compelling opportunity.
And that's why we pulled the trigger on it.
And, um, it's obviously, you know, basically doubled in three weeks.
So plenty of obviously room for some air to come out of it.
But I would not mind to see it go down 10 or 15 percent on an offering if they needed to.
In fact, I'd love to see an offering here to accelerate deployment of their production capacity.
So, yeah, I'd actually love an offering.
I like offerings when smaller companies do them.
You know, when Nebius did their offering, people were like, oh, you know, be careful.
Nebius is doing an offering.
When Nebius' CEO filed for $200 million in stock sales, literally a week later, Nebius announced a Microsoft deal.
So there's a lot of noise in markets.
There's going to be insiders selling.
There's going to be all sorts of stuff like this.
But you have to be able to take a comprehensive view, I think, on stocks.
Take a technical and a fundamental and a catalyst catalyst driven view, which is what I do.
And which is why, you know, we have so much consistency with these picks.
What I will mention today also is a name that doesn't get talked about a lot, but I've talked about here several times, which is Huntington Ingalls, ticker HII, which had a fantastic day today.
It was up 3%.
That's a lot for that stock.
It's a breaking out of a period of consolidation here that it's been in for quite a while.
It was trading in the 260 to 270 range since the beginning of August.
Today pushed into almost 290.
It's basically graduating out of that price range.
Buyers are stepping in above the local highs, which is nice.
And above 290, this thing,
I think, goes right back off to the races. You look at the volume profile from August,
beginning of August to now on this, nothing but accumulation. Very, very few sellers. In fact,
you can't find sellers on this thing all year. Flip the year-to-date chart, look at the volume
profile, nothing outside of the very beginning of the year in February at the lows, which is
understandable. A lot of stuff was down. That was a deep seek moment. But outside of the very beginning of the year in February at the lows, which is understandable.
A lot of stuff was down.
That was a deep seek moment.
But outside of that, nothing but accumulation all year. On Trump's comments about expanding the Navy by 19 ships today.
Yep.
Yeah.
That's exactly what I'm about to get into.
30% move since beginning of June.
That's beautiful.
A hell of a move on a stock like this, you know, not, not,
not the sort of stock that's extremely high beta.
But yeah, we've been long since low 200s.
209 is my cost basis.
And now we're trading 287 on this thing.
It's basically just trended up.
I mean, you pull the daily chart on this thing.
It's been a hell of an easy hold.
It has not given you any real headaches.
Yeah, it's had red days in between, but just grinded to the upside constantly and again another one of these obvious trades right like i
called kratos an obvious trade in the 20s and 30s you know that stock is obviously more than doubled
since but i called this one an obvious trade too at 200 i was like look trump is pounding the table
about shipbuilding there's only one real pure play shipbuilding smid cap in terms of commercial
viability and that's huntington they build all of our nuclear summer all of our nuclear aircraft carriers all of them so
you know they they're they're positioned to benefit from an expansion shipbuilding now
the comments trump made today he said he's promising at least 19 new ships for the navy
next year that's significantly higher than the last two years so 2024 we had eight this year
we had five or we will have five by the end of the year. We have four currently. Three times the shipbuilding orders from this year. And it's not new news because in the prospectus, the full year 2026 DOD prospectus, they highlighted this. They said their goal is 19 ships. But Trump just reiterated that today. And you saw the reaction in Huntington.
You also saw the reaction in some other shipbuilding stocks as well.
Once he said that today, it closed up near the highs, up 3%.
But if you believe U.S. shipbuilding is going to expand, it's a pretty no-nonsense way to get exposure.
And I mentioned this before.
You can do it through general dynamics as well.
But it's lower beta. right? Like you're not
going to get as much upside just by the nature of the mechanics of the stocks. Like this is just a
much more movable stock. And it's also a stock that can enjoy a little bit more of premium and
multiple expansion on narrative alone. That's not going to happen for general dynamics, right? Like
Lockheed, general dynamics, Northrop, these stocks don't trade on narrative. They trade on multi-year
backlog cycles, right? These huge backlog cycles that these guys go through that are hundreds of
billions of dollars. That's what the stocks trade on. They don't trade on like incremental catalysts.
But when you're a two to $10 billion company, Huntington's now about a 12,
When you're a $2 to $10 billion company, Huntington's now about a 12, you do have the benefit of enjoying volatility on smaller catalysts and on incremental catalysts that your larger peers won't move off of.
So Ironman, Lonnie, Huntington, I think today's news is really good and probably encourages the stock to push even higher from here.
And like I said, zero signs of distribution on this name for pretty much the entire year.
Just nothing but accumulation all year.
And Materion, which is another one of my rare earth names,
very, very similar action on this one.
And they have nothing to do with each other.
Materion is a beryllium producer,
the only integrated beryllium producer in the Western Hemisphere.
But this is the other name in my rare metals book outside of energy fuels, you, you, you, which
was down today on an offering, but material had a nice day today holding up. And if you look at
this action on material around the 90, I mean, it is picture perfect, right? You look at this action
came up into the one 22 spot, peeled low volume into 116, kissed the 9 EMA, and then curled right back up.
Like, just really textbook action on this thing in the last couple of weeks.
As it curls higher, I fully expect this thing to blow through those highs
and continue onward based on this type of accumulation
we've seen on this thing in the past few months.
So, yeah, my focus remains on these types of names
that are showing relative strength that are clearly being accumulated on a volume profile
standpoint. And then obviously another good day for Nebius, which was up about 2%. Um, but yeah,
pretty great day. A couple of my names pulled back, but they were mostly all high fires,
lift energy fuels, genius, you know, all up a lot for my entries so fine to see those
down um but great to see d pro up great to see robin hood up great to see kratos up great to
see huntington up so uh the airs are out yeah let's see what's the initial move here on
up nice the nike was a little bit of a six percent up move 11.7 billion is what I'm seeing
here for revenue
while she was expecting 11 billion
EPS is not saying 49 cents is what I'm
seeing here that would be a beat on 27
cents
so it would be a double beat
for Nike some pretty solid numbers
going on there yeah
11.7 11 49 cents
expectations of 27 cents a greater china
revenue uh as currency neutral growth in north america was offset by decline in greater greater
china revenue so china was rough dtc was down 4.4 percent yeah they said like 4% growth in the U.S., 2% Latin America, but 9% decline in China.
So the market was pricing in a decrease in year-over-year sales.
They were expecting $11 billion.
Last year, same quarter, they reported $11.6 billion.
So then putting this $11.7 billion number did still get them at growth
when the market was expecting them to have a revenue decline.
So I did give back a little bit of that move here, though.
But I would say that's pretty significant.
Where am I seeing forward guidance here?
I don't know if I'm quite seeing any forward guidance
in the Nike numbers.
Maybe they'll report that later.
But yeah, Nike's initial move is up about 3.5%.
Let's just do a quick control F for Skims.
Let's talk about Kim K in here.
Nike, let's see what also the CNBC article is saying.
Nike beats on earnings a sneaker giant post-surprise
sales growth. So yeah, kind of talk about
where we're there. Nike's...
That's also not that interesting.
Nike says,
I am encouraged by the momentum
we generated in the quarter, but progress was not
linear as dimensions of our business
recover on different timelines.
Alright. I don't think the expectations were super high for nike that's definitely part of this more time let's do a quick
control f in here not for any of those interesting stuff all right we'll see if anything else comes
out of this one up about two and a half percent in after hours right now nike initial numbers were
both beat on top and bottom line. Stock talk. Last thing I
remember you saying was about Materion.
I don't know where you're at in your
park through here. I went through everything.
Nice. Kratos was having
a good move. There was a very long
speech and commentary from President
Trump today, I believe.
Maybe this was yesterday where they had
all the generals and everything in one room, which doesn't
happen very often. Yeah, that was yesterday.
And then today was just him and Hegseth talking about,
all their defense priorities,
shipbuilding,
drones,
all that good stuff.
So there's going to be a lot of money to be made.
Construction on Golden Dome has started.
you know,
that's,
that's nice thing.
And obviously I'm sure you guys talked about this yesterday,
but the,
you know,
the wall street journal,
um, article talking about, uh, sure you guys talked about this yesterday, but the Wall Street Journal article
talking about
needing to move faster and wanting
a double production of 12 key critical
weapons categories, most of which
are, of course, missiles.
Interesting. No, I didn't know.
I did see that one a little bit, but I didn't get the chance
to dig super deep. I like
to keep it even. I like to give credit where credit is due.
You guys know, or at least those of you who listen to this space know how critical I was of the administration with the tariff stuff.
I have been very impressed with the administration when it comes to how quickly they're moving on nuclear, how quickly they're moving on defense.
I am impressed, and I think they deserve credit for that.
So credit where credit is due.
I will be a critic when I think the policies are stupid, and I will be supportive when I think they deserve credit for that. So credit where credit is due. I will
be a critic when I think the policies are stupid and I will be supportive when I think the policies
are good. And I think what we are doing right now with reshoring supply chains and making sure
America can build the things that we need to defend ourselves is very important and I'm glad
we're doing it. So I just wanted to say that without getting too political
you're good Americans
yeah America wins man
what's your favorite politician
what's your least favorite
we're not doing that
no but I do like what they're doing
I like how quickly they're moving
they're stamping approvals quickly.
They are talking to companies in person. They are taking phone calls.
They're getting in the mud to make things happen, which is important.
And you don't see that a lot, frankly, from presidential administrations.
There's a lot of boots on the ground right now that are trying to get things moving domestically in these industries.
And it's important because we are vulnerable as a country when it comes to rare earth.
We are vulnerable as a country when it comes to drone production and shipbuilding.
And so, yeah, we need to do these things.
We need to do them quickly.
And based on the cadence that we're seeing in this first year, I think a lot of these things will get done very quickly.
We're seeing impressive cadence at least i mean as far as i'm concerned as impressive in terms of policy cadences i've
seen in these industries specifically i'm not talking about all of their policies but
when it comes to aerospace and defense and when it comes to nuclear energy and when it comes to
rare earths they are moving their feet and i like that, just make the stock market go up and I'll be happy.
Dude, it seems like they, I mean, we went from,
we went from Trump is not watching the stock market four months ago
to Basant saying we can get the market to go up when we were down 1%
from the highs.
You remember that?
We were down like 0.8%. And he's like, I think we can get the stock market to go back up. I was like, dude,
let it rest for like one day. But yeah, this administration cares as much about the stock
market as any administration ever. And who's surprised by that? Did people really believe
that earlier this year when he said he wasn't watching the market come on guys the stock market matters more now than ever you know all these kids that are going to be born
with thousand dollars in the s&p 500 you think they care about the stock market or their parents
care about it yeah so more voters care about the stock market today than ever and guess what next
year it'll be even more voters and the year after that'll be even more voters and by by 2030 by the end of the decade you'll be at 70 plus percent household participation you think you're going to care less
about the stock market then no of course you're going to care even more and that's the thing that
that's why like betting against stocks is such a bad idea the crash will come and it will be bought
you know like it always is.
And yeah, maybe we'll get a lost decade.
Like all these guys say, like, oh, who knows?
Watch out for the last decade.
But if you get a lost decade, just remember,
it's not retail that fucked up in that case.
Everyone gets screwed in that.
You think Wall Street doesn't lose money in the lost decade?
Of course they do.
So, yeah, if you're a retail guy and you're net long and you're like,
oh, when the market crashes, am I going to look like an idiot?
The reality is everyone is net long.
Most people are and have been.
And when the market crashes, everyone will get
punched in the face. So just be ready for that.
I think it was interesting that
AI said
exactly what you said, which is that households are
fully invested. And I agree with you. There's three big things going on in this market. There's a rate cutting
cycle, which has just started. There's the AI theme, which we talk about every day.
And then the third thing is, you know, policy tailwinds. And you're either investing in segments
where, you know, the administration has turned their guns on, or you're looking at segments of
the market where they have not yet done. And you're looking to, you know, skate where the puck is going to go, like housing, like
we talked about at the beginning of this space.
But I thought it was also interesting that, I mean, we heard it from Goldman, we heard
from Deutsche, I don't know, a few other guys on CNBC talking about the same thing, talking
about how institutional positioning,
and we're talking pension funds, we're talking, you know, long, short, fundamental guys,
and hedge funds all being underweight. And look, NDX went up 5% in September,
the best September in 10 years. Most of these guys are below their bogeys. They're underperforming on an institutional level. So here again,
if retail is fully invested, they're kicking institutionals. But what does that mean for
Q4 in addition to policy tailwinds? It means you're going to have a tailwind of these institutions,
which we saw there's a big pension rebalancing selling off happening right now at quarter end.
As soon as the calendar flips,
that pressure comes off the market. You had hedge funds cutting positioning last week for the first
time in four weeks, right into quarter end. You had long, short funds apparently taking down
their grosses the most since Liberation Day.
I mean, it doesn't really make sense at a time when, you know,
every market index is 1% away from its all-time highs.
So I think the setup looks great here for the next three months.
And, you know, seasonally, these are the best three months.
And, you know, I'm sure you guys saw that MarketWatch article that talked about how it's even better if the market is up,
you know, 83% of the time, you're going to get 4.4% returns in Q4 if the market's up in the three quarters prior and we're up like 13%. So yeah, seasonally, position-wise.
And I guess the other part is people are expecting upward revisions to earnings again.
So nice backdrop.
We are getting close to this earnings season here.
And I know we've talked about on these spaces a little bit, a lot.
These in-between periods, you know, stuff gets going but uh what's the term you use here it's the great uh or
it's a froth remover that's what it is yes stock talk likes to call this a great froth remover we're
getting pretty close to it the expectations are high and i know financials are starting us off
here at the start and i wonder if they're setting themselves up for a nice hot
start to this earning season now it doesn't always mean that much for the the next of it but
earning season is october is the month october starts tomorrow yeah that's actually a good
topic you segwayed into there with froth removal remove fraud right like a lot of people think
when they see like bubble activity like in quantum names for example which have been weak
these last couple of weeks um or last week or so but you see like bubble activity like that
and you're like okay like ion q is trading at 25 billion mark cap.
Like what the fuck are we talking about?
And you kind of,
you kind of scratch your chin at that and go, okay,
like, is that mean the market is frothy?
Well,
there's a couple of considerations I make in moments like that.
First of all,
you want to be honest,
intellectually honest about the size of these bubbles,
right?
Like,
I don't know. All of the quantum names combined trade at like a 50 billion mark right? Like, I don't know, all of the
quantum names combined trade at like a 50 billion mark cap or whatever. I don't know, 75, whatever.
I haven't added them all up. Let's say 75 to be liberal. But whatever, you add them all up,
you get 75. I think it's actually much lower than that. But like in a $60 trillion equity market,
it's nothing, right? Like literally nothing. So, okay, that's the first thing. Relative
insignificance is important. But also, and this is perhaps more important,
markets are really good at dumping the stocks that need to be dumped without
throwing the babies out of the bathwater. Now, I'm not saying babies don't get thrown out of
the bathwater. We've seen days like that, right? We have days like deep seek and tariff sell off where everything gets sold indiscriminately, right?
I'm not saying those days don't exist in the market.
Those days happen too.
But there are sustained periods in the market.
Leo, come inside.
Leo, there are sustained periods in the market where you have corrections over longer periods, like slow unwinds of momentum in very specific industries, and the market doesn't skip a beat.
Right? beat. Right. And a lot of times those start with earning seasons because earning seasons tend to
be a sobriety moment for a lot of investors and traders, especially who buy these stocks
intra-quarter, you know, they buy a stock they don't know about or don't know well,
intra-quarter, maybe they like the chart, maybe they read something interesting about it or PR
or whatever. They buy the stock.
And they get to the earnings.
And then the earnings are announced.
And maybe even if the earnings don't disappoint, maybe even if it's a beat, they look at the numbers and they're like, what?
Stock's trading at 100 times sales?
Like, I don't get it.
And they sell the stock.
It's like an epiphany moment for investors, earnings a lot of the time.
And that's why you get these outsized reactions on earnings reports, right?
Minus 20, minus 30%, or on the flip side, plus 20, plus 30%.
Somebody's watching a stock.
They didn't think the numbers were going to be that good.
They see numbers.
They feel like they have to chase, so they're never going to get in.
So you see a 20% move to the upside.
Same thing happens on the downside, right?
You have people who bought the stock.
They're trading it.
The chart was nice to see numbers that don't make sense to them, so they to the upside. Same thing happens on the downside, right? You have people who bought the stock, they're trading it, the chart was nice to see numbers that don't make sense to them,
so they dump the stock. And in those moments, a lot of froth can be removed very quickly.
Like, how many times have you seen a $10 billion retail favorite name go down 30% on earnings?
The answer is all the time, all the time. And that's a pretty quick, that's an accelerated way to remove froth, right?
To remove these sort of bubble lands, bubble islands around the market.
And people underestimate the market's ability to do that.
It's part of the reason why a lot of times people miss out on multi-year bull cycles
because they keep pointing to these industry-specific areas of
froth. They're like, look at that. I can't invest in the market. Look at the quantum names. It's
like, dude, it's like 0.01% of the market. You have to look at the broader market and see that
there are opportunities there usually. Even in really extended markets, there are opportunities
usually in places that you wouldn't expect. So yeah, froth removal is an important thing to
think about in markets and to think about like the function of froth removal. And
you don't need earnings reports to catalyze that. Sometimes it's just a stall in momentum.
Sometimes something else pops up that's sexier or cooler and traders just move away from a stock
or an industry into the other one.
And you see this sort of, and this is almost more painful because it baits people into holding.
You see this sort of slow bleed out, right? Where stocks that were leading the market in this
industry, you know, they're down one week, then they're down another week, then they're down
another week and they're not going down much. They're going down maybe three, four, five percent
a week. And before you know it, they're breaking down
their monthly charts and their weekly charts. And you're like, dude, how did this happen? I was just
looking at the stock two weeks ago and everything looked fine. Right? That's the dangerous stuff.
Those are like the sleeper killers of portfolios where you, the stock did really well, you held it,
it starts to not do so well. And you're like, oh, you write it off as consolidation. And then before, you know, the stock's 50 percent lower. And you're like, what happened?
That happens a lot, too, especially with these higher beta names.
And for those of you that are in these mid cap names, even if you're not in the small caps, even if you're just in the mid caps, stuff happens a lot.
You know, sentiment can die quickly as almost as quickly, almost more quickly, actually, than it can be awakened in favor of these names.
So this is why monitoring price action is so important.
It's why I'm so emphatic about everyone knowing how to read a chart, because you could be so high conviction on some of these stories sometimes.
And they could be giving you warning signs of breakdown on the monthly charts and weekly charts.
And you're just a deer in headlights because you're like, oh, I have conviction in the
story.
And before you know it, the stock just gets to brutalize and destroy it.
I've seen it so many times.
And you have to be careful of that.
Like you do not want to own a stock that is underneath all of the major moving averages
on the monthly chart.
You do not want to own those types of stocks. No matter what you think, no matter what type of alpha or edge you think you have, like consistency wise, the chances that those are going to pan out on a swing trade are incredibly low.
Like what that sort of chart is telling you on a monthly chart where stock is below all the monthly moving average, what that is telling you is that buyers are getting less and less inclined to buy the stock at lower and lower
prices. That is like the ultimate thing you do not want to see on a name. So avoid those types
of names if you know what's good for you. And some of you bottom callers and cherry pickers
out there have the balls to do that and maybe you do well on it. I have a hard time believing anyone
does well uh catching
knives like that consistently but there are some people that do it so you know if you make money
doing it like i always say if you make money if you're making money doing something consistently
don't let me talk you out of it but i have a hard time believing anyone is is buying charts like that
and being profitable consistently so oh that's the thing. We are in a raging freaking bull market right now.
So a lot of these things do work well right now.
There are still stocks that suck, but even some of the sucky ones are having their times in the sun and things like that.
Like, I don't know.
It's a good time to kind of go down that risk curve.
But when it pulls back, those are going to be the ones that pull back fast.
So if you're a swing trader or a day trader, like, you probably do want to be going out on the data curve right now,
would be my guess.
We're in the middle of a raging bull market.
I mean, this is why cost-based advantage matters so much in markets like this,
in bull markets, because you don't know when the top's going to be.
So if you own the thing from 20 and it's 100 now,
it's easier to stomach that thing going back to 90 than it is if you bought it at 80 and then it goes back to 60.
Right?
That's a lot harder to stomach.
So cost-based advantage matters so much. To ride a bull market stress-free without having to constantly look for the next hot thing, the best way to do that is to build a basket of core positions with big cost-based advantages.
Like Robinhood, Kratos, Nebius, I'm probably never selling these things.
Not never, but not selling these things for a long time.
And they will serve me well in bull markets to come.
Because my cost base is so low, I don't have to worry about the volatility.
Not enough people are thinking about that in markets like this.
They're like, it's a bull market. So there'll always be a new opportunity. I could just rotate
and rotate and rotate and rotate and roll up and roll up and roll up. It's all fine and dandy when
the market's screaming to the upside. It gets harder to manage a portfolio like that when we
chop and consolidate and pull back. It gets much harder to manage a portfolio like that.
So people forget that they're human operators.
People in markets forget.
I'm a human operator.
The psychology of the management matters.
AI is not managing your portfolio for most of you yet.
So until then, you have to acknowledge that you're a human operator and say, what can I do to improve the efficiency of my human operation?
Well, there's a couple things you can do. First of all, learn the basics of reading a chart. It'll
take you one weekend. Stop being stubborn. Second of all, know the things you own. Do the DD,
learn the companies, learn the debt balances, learn the financing obligations. That's it.
Once you know those two things, you know the company relatively well. Deep dive the industry,
find out about peer valuations, you know know see how your company compares to its peers find out about the growth trajectory what do they need to execute on for
that growth trajectory to pan out like it's not rocket science but it does require work
real fast yeah those are some fair thoughts, I was just gonna say real fast.
September officially over September seasonality, which is actually a 50 50 type thing of recent
years.
It's been a little bit worse, but that's something closed up 4.48% for the month of September,
the best September return since 2010.
Interesting. return since 2010.
Interesting.
Best September return since 2010.
There you go.
A little step back. What was the year in 2010?
2011.
What was the Q4 performance for that year?
Sorry.
That was low-hanging fruit.
From October's open to the
close of the year,
another 10%.
But we weren't at all-time high. We were
recovering after 08 still.
Okay, so a little bit of a different base.
Yeah, a little bit of a different base it's a little yeah a little different but still
it's still impressive i mean dude i'm honestly overall just impressed with
with market action like i i would have expected a deeper pullback by now honestly um so
i don't know i mean i don't really have a choice but to stay that long in this kind of environment.
38.33% off of the low we made in April on the S&P.
Yeah, I guess.
I mean, I guess that was the correction.
I mean, that's the argument that...
So far.
Well, that's the argument I hear people make, right?
It's like, okay, we need a correction.
A lot of people in December,
even last year, last fall,
but December, even on, you know,
end of the February on this space,
we were talking about valuations.
We were talking about,
we've been straight up since basically
that low in October of 22. We've been straight up since basically that low
in October of 22. We've been up for what, almost 18 months, 15, 16 months, basically been up other
than that one little yen carry trade thing that lasted a week. And then people are saying, well,
we need a correction, but those big corrections don't happen that often historically.
those big corrections don't happen that often historically.
So we had one in 2022,
and then we had this one really in 2025
was the only other bear market type of correction we've had.
It was just so rapid, I guess people write that off.
But that's, you know, if you look at COVID,
you look at that 2022 kind of bear market,
and then this one with the tariffs,
whatever you want to call this one from this year,'s three and five years i don't i i don't know am the ai revolution's still
going on right sock talk as far as i can see it's not stopping i mean i don't know if anyone saw
larry elson clip from this morning and he was like me and elon spent the weekend begging jensen for
gpus he literally said we were begging him like please take our money
so like i yeah like i said the biggest single biggest risk in this market more than labor
more than anything i said this like i think every space in the last couple weeks but is that the
next generation of ai products are underwhelming and i I don't think they will be, but that's a risk.
And if they are, then yeah, the whole thing goes kaput.
And, you know, it's just a function on how patient investors are willing to be for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
If investors are willing to wait for a decade for that for the market, this party can go on for a long time.
They're not.
Okay.
They're not willing to wait a decade. 100% not. You have to start
to see stuff, I mean.
Yeah. Well, then
that's what, to me, that's where
the market top is. Market top, to me, is a
function of investor
patience on the ROI of AI.
it's weird because there's another dynamic
here, too, at play. the other dynamic at play here is
like entertaining the consuming public and you think about this thing that that open ai is
trying to launch then you saw a video app or whatever the hell they're they're trying to make
like you you kind of look at that early i look at that and go come on man like we want real world
you know ai we want highly productive world transforming stuff and you're making you're
like focusing on video generators to entertain people but from open ai standpoint like
why did the chat gpt moment matter well it didn't matter because the industry somehow found out about ai if you talk to the
guys at google deep mind or you or you talk to them but you read their interviews or read their
twitter pages prior to chat gpt they are all talking about this it wasn't in the public eye
but llms for years before chat gPT were being discussed as a thing.
They were mostly being internally demonstrated by DeepMind and by these other companies internally.
They're like, okay, we have these things.
I don't know if anyone remembers, like two years before OpenAI was ever released,
there was this incident with this guy at Google that was fired when he was talking to a...
The guy who fell in love with the AI or something, right? Or something like that. I don't remember, but it was years ago, but he said it was alive and sentient.
Yeah. And he like fell in love with it. Yeah. So anyway, it was like real life her, but
my point is, is that these have been around for a while, right? So why did the chat GPT moment
matter? Right? Like the naive person will be like, well, everyone found out about AI and AI
became a thing. No, no, no. AI was already a thing. The chat GPT moment mattered because the public,
the consuming public was like, Oh, what the hell is this? I can download on my phone. I can ask
anything. Well, it's pretty cool. And it got better quickly. And it captured the fascination
of the public. The power of doing that is insane. Like people don't realize that the, the corporate power of doing that when you capture the fascination of the public. The power of doing that is insane. Like people don't realize
that the corporate power of doing that when you capture the fascination of the public,
then the rest of the corporate playground goes, we want this, we want it, because the public wants
it. We want it to be bigger, faster, better. Now, here's my money to make it happen. And then you
saw all of the layers that exploded from there, NVIDIA, Oracle, data center deployment, the hyperscalers spending hundreds of billions.
All of that was dominoes that fell after the chat CBT moment.
And it'd make you scratch your head.
You're like, well, what?
Like, if these hyperscaler guys knew about AI already, and it was just the public that found out, then why did all the spend fall at that moment?
And it's because they are aware of the power of public fascination with these things and the power of being able to capture that lightning in a bottle in the moment.
When the public became fascinated with this by the millions around the world, people were like, oh, we need to now capture lightning in a bottle.
Now is the time to move.
We were considering prior to this if LLMs were viable or there would be errors and this and that.
But now that's all off the table.
We need more GPUs now and we need to deploy these rapidly because the public knows and the public's fascinated with them.
We have to capture this in the moment.
That's how industries work.
And now in the stage of AI, what you're seeing is everyone knows about AI now.
Everyone knows about AI now.
You know, it's getting jokes are getting made about it in movies.
You know, it's getting jokes are getting made about it in movies.
And you're now at the juncture.
We need companies to see real bottom line impact more than just we're using AI to deploy ads.
Right.
That's been the extent of it.
Right.
For most of it for till now with companies like with Meta.
But we need companies now saying we are seeing profitability impacts, earnings impacts, efficiency impacts from deploying AI. And I think you'll begin to
see that in a more meaningful way when real world AI is deployed more meaningfully. In other words,
robotics, automation, warehouse level software systems, broad enterprise based LLMs that can
solve really, really specific tasks, you know, things like automating paralegal
staff, automating factory floors, like that's when you'll see efficiency boosts. And that could be
around the corner, it could be five years from now. But the willingness of investors to wait for
that moment, versus the amount of company amount of money that the companies that they own stock
in are spending to get to that moment.
That clash between those two things, the patience and the money spend is going to be,
in my view, the dictator of how markets do in the next five to 10 years. And if you want this
party, this rip roaring bubble, frankly, that we're in to continue. Uh, you need to see cool AI products
being deployed year after year after year and them getting cooler and more productive year
after year after year. That's the key. And everything else, all the other industries we
talk about aerospace and defense, rare earths, the, the liquidity and premium valuations that
all these industries are enjoying are all a byproduct of AI.
All of it.
The whole pie.
The whole pie.
Everything.
Record retail participation, record dollars being spent of any technological trend.
We're on pace this year to outpace any one-year spend for any CapEx for any technology ever.
Right?
Like, this is not a joke.
We're not playing with, like, we're not playing with, you know, a small industry here.
We're playing with what could be the biggest industry.
From a CapEx standpoint, the biggest industry of all time.
And if this continues obviously
and you know we better hope it works we better hope that we actually can do this and that
you know the extent of this isn't llms which i don't think it is i think frankly that risk is
sort of overstated because look what's happening already.
Look at the self-driving cars.
They're already here.
Look at the robots.
They're already here.
Look at the LLMs.
They're already here.
Now it's just a matter of all those three things getting better.
The robots getting cheaper, getting tooled more effectively, getting to a point of mass production, the automation getting more sophisticated, and the LLMs getting more powerful.
All three of those things, I think, will happen.
I think the market's telling you that.
It believes that, too.
It has to.
Yeah, it definitely has to.
We were talking some big numbers here.
To mention, it's the only way out of the financial hole
that we're in, too, as a country.
Yeah, innovate our way out.
Elon's dead on about that. Dimension is the only way out of the financial hole that we're into as a country. Yeah. Innovate our way out.
Elon's dead on about that.
It took all three months,
maybe to decide that we just had to grow our way out of it.
I think he got there and realized nobody's going to stop spending.
I mean,
there's a certain train you're not going to stop.
It's not going to be that one. For now, at least.
You got to win votes, dude.
You got to buy votes.
It's always been the biggest problem with democracy.
The buying of votes.
And it will probably never stop.
I mean, I still like our...
I still like our system better than anyone else's.
This whole government shutdown thing.
I don't know why we have to have this conversation
every couple months.
I feel like we can figure out something better.
I don't think about it that much either, but we literally might not
get the NFP data on Friday.
Okay.
Probably by design.
That's the
end of the day earlier.
I'm waiting. I can't believe
nobody's really tweeted that conspiracy theory yet.
That's by design.
Come on.
Let's be serious.
Sometimes people are so unwilling to be conspiratorial that they'll just, like, ignore the evidence in front of them.
I kind of hate that attitude.
Like, yeah, let's be honest.
That's by design.
They don't want the data to be released.
I mean, why?
They're just going to change it later.
So why does it matter?
It'd be fucking hilarious.
It'd be so funny if they resolved the government
shut down like 30 minutes after the data was supposed to be released.
The data doesn't get released and they're like,
okay, alright, government's back on.
Never mind. That'd be really, really funny.
And I would not actually put it past
our government to do that.
But, yeah.
I don't know. Whatever. Government shutdown. I don't know my comments do that. But, yeah. I don't know.
Whatever. Government shutdown, I don't know
my comments on that are, I don't know, we talk about it
every year and nothing ever happens, so until it does...
There are some technical stuff that seems to happen.
The SEC and IPOs,
if your IPO hasn't been
filed and you haven't approved yet, it's
going to be delayed. Stuff like that.
So let's be real. If we are going to shut down, we're going to be delayed stuff like that so let's be real if we
are going to shut down we're going to shut down for what two days the last shut down was a long
time right it's 35 days in december 22nd i believe of 2018 i don't classify that a long time i thought
it was longer so that was the that was yeah and what happened like or at least in years 35 days did anything like
happen in those 30 days no the market bottomed the day it closed yeah
yeah i don't understand go look at go look at the center whatever go get december of uh 2018
on your chart you can see the day that the uh the government shut down it was like i think it was like i remember and i
remember people saying like i remember i remember on my feed people were like sell everything so
it was the monday before christmas and then we bounced back like literally the day after christmas
we were up i think five percent i think every time i've seen people say sell everything has been like
massive buy pretty close to it yeah like every every single top i mean dude to be honest everything
in the market for the last 20 years been a buying opportunity right so it's like really easy to say
that like any dip ever has been a buying opportunity markets just go straight up so
like yeah everything's a buying
opportunity i see frank requested let's get frank up here in the last little bit here
what's going on frank long time no chat how you doing
there you go frank frank frank uncle frankie
frankie's on a ferry to steak dinner right now
maybe he accidentally hit request sock tug i'll ask you a question in the meantime
this this drone stuff oh i mean i i see updates on it i've read about it a little bit here and
there but not near as deep as you and some of the others up here have.
I'm in the camp that it's coming and it's coming soon.
I'm just curious, timeline type of stuff.
I mean, obviously there's the EV side of stuff,
but just drones in general,
do you know what kind of timeline we're looking at for some of this stuff,
at least for transport?
I mean, I think the military is probably the priority for anybody with this drone warfare stuff but also just the
other side of things i mean i know there's some little delivery services with drones like delivery
yeah some more of like either delivery or for like like human transport
yeah okay so you're talking about e-vetols too yeah you could throw that in there too i'm just
curious kind of where we're at because i see like joeby and some of these other ones archer whoever
and i see these prototypes i just haven't really dove in i'm just curious like how far away we are
um if anyone knows yeah joeby's the closest if you want exposure to that place joeby's the stock i
just couldn't stomach the valuation anymore i owned it at 850 and sold it like 16. i just couldn't stomach the valuation
with very little revenue but if you want to if you want to peer play ev to exposure joeby's head and
shoulders the best archer is more of a promo company than an ev tol company they haven't even
done an ev tol flight so like that pretty much settles it as far as who the leader is in that industry
um they both have pretty big partnerships but again yeah i think joeby's head and shoulders
the leader if you want to pure play exposure as far as drones are concerned
the short answer to your question is hopefully sooner than later uh knowing an exact timeline
is going to be difficult there There's a blue UAS list
that has several companies that are on the blue list. That has become a little bit less important
in recent months because a lot of companies have been added to it. It's important to sort of become
diluted. You have new programs emerging that are a little bit more tight in terms of their roster.
The T-Rex program is one of them that I talked to you about. That includes some drone initiatives. There is a air superiority program by the Air Force that
also includes some drone initiatives. It also includes unmanned aircraft initiatives,
to which Kratos is relevant. There are a lot of next-gen programs active right now. I think
there's 11 next-gen programs active that have been started since the end of 23. And that's across all three branches. So you have Navy programs, Air Force
programs, then U.S. Army programs. And the three biggest points of commonality in all of those
programs are drones, unmanned systems, and precision munitions. And under the precision
munitions umbrella, you can also put missile defense.
So precision munitions slash missile defense, drones and unmanned systems, those are the three that have been universally earmarked in all 11 next gen defense packages across all three branches of the military.
To me, that makes it pretty clear where you need to focus.
And that's where my focus is.
That's why Kratos has been my number one pick. That's still the stock I own in the most size in aerospace and defense, because they have exposure
to all three of those categories, missile defense, unmanned systems with the Valkyrie,
and then also with drones. And Huntington Ingalls I picked because shipbuilding is mentioned in six
out of 11 of those prospectuses. The gen prospectuses is u.s shipbuilding
superiority it's mentioned in six and so i own huntington hii for that and then i used to own
mercury because they are huge picks and shovels play for precision munitions and aerospace and
defense in general pretty much all the next gen systems you're going to get some sort of
subcomponents from mercury i used to own that one still love that stock, but don't own it anymore.
And so there are really specific ways to get exposure here.
But in terms of timeline, it's really tricky.
I can't tell you when exactly these awards are going to go out,
but I expect a lot of awards to go out and expect them to move quickly
because we have basically no real domestic drone manufacturing at scale.
I mean, Aerovironment has done it.
They're arguably the leader.
If you're talking about actual specific, you know, military deployable drones,
Aerovironment's technically the leader.
I like Kratos' technology platforms a little bit better,
which is why I picked that stock years ago over Aerovironment.
But I like ABAV2.
I think they're a good exposure to have if you want exposure to that space.
But there's a lot of stocks.
There's everything from the leaders, your Kratos and your air environments, all the way down to the small cap speculative plays like RCAT, UMAC, ONDS, D-Pro, UAVS.
So there's tons of names.
I think my drone watch list has like 18 names on it. So
there's everything from the picks and shovels. You also have names like Mobilicom too, MOB.
I mean, I go on and on. There's tons of names. So it really depends on what aspect of the supply
chain you want exposure to, how much speculation, speculation you're willing to undertake,
how much offering risk you're willing to undertake, which management teams you like the best, which of those next-gen industries you want more exposure to, which of
them you want less exposure to. That's how you should build your basket, I think, if you're
wanting exposure to this industry in a sort of, I think Godfather brought this up earlier,
barbell approach way where you have some of your guys that are actually commercially viable today
and very likely to win contracts, and then some of your guys who, actually commercially viable today and very likely to win contracts and some of your guys who hey maybe if they do win a contract the stock at 5x you know
you want you want to kind of have exposure to both sides of those in my opinion if you want to play
this theme effectively because i say this a lot with defense stocks but the smaller the company
the more impactful the award right and the thing with defense awards is they are generally to the tune of,
you know, eight to 12 figures.
Like, they're big awards.
So, you know, if you're a couple hundred million dollar company
and you get one of those awards, it literally could transform your company overnight.
And in other instances, you know, you can get a $6 billion multi-year award and you're a $3 billion company.
And then you're looking down the pipe of a 40% annual revenue increase from one award.
So you want to be able to look at these things in context and say, like, how important could it be?
Right. Because no one's going to see Lockheed win a $3 billion contract and trade Lockheed off of that.
No one cares, right?
So you have to know the difference of the market caps and size of the companies and beta of the stocks matters in industries like this where your goal is to capture contracts.
What's up, Sam?
Can you tell me a little bit about ONDS?
I know we've got Presbyterian coming up soon but i always want to because i've seen that
i've seen that stock a lot on twitter but i've never really looked into it you're saying i was
a lot to i was interested in it when it was one tenth the size i think at this valuation it's
crazy okay in my opinion and in my view i think it's just uh this part of the reason why i bought
dpro was because you know it was trading at a tenth of the valuation why I bought Deepro was because, you know, it was trading at a
tenth of the valuation of all the small cap peers, or they're all trading at over a billion.
And I just felt like there was, there's some opportunity there to close the valuation gap.
So that was part of the reason I bought that.
But I mean, like, I can't stomach them at a one or 1.5 billion valuation with basically
no revenue.
So yeah, I can't.
For me, ONDS, all of these,
ONDS, RCAT, UMAC, I think RCAT and UMAC are still a little bit more interesting because,
you know, you have that angle of the Trump backing that could lead to them winning more contracts.
But yeah, ONDS to me, it's just crazy valuation. Most of them are trading at crazy valuations. Like, nothing is cheap in this space.
You're not going to find a cheap stock.
Kratos is not cheap at all.
You know, AeroVironment is not cheap.
I think AeroVironment is even more expensive than Kratos now.
I haven't looked at the PS or PE in a while, but they're both expensive,
and they're the leaders in terms of the pure play sense and then you have the smaller cap ones that are just again at insane evaluations
like you know some of them are trying to get like 900 times sales like i can't buy that so
yeah could they go higher yeah did this lithium america's thing fully go through already or am i
is this headline i'm seeing it's? It's just come out now.
It was rumored earlier.
But no, the actual press release has...
Is that right now?
The press release is no,
but the energy chief has said
that they're going to take an equity stake
in Lithium Americas.
So yeah, it's basically confirming
what was rumored to be happening.
Gotcha, okay.
I think one more point that's worth mentioning, Stock Talk,
when you talk about drones,
like, you know, you've got the small, you know,
backpack deployable type drones that Arcat
and these guys are involved in.
And I completely agree with you, by the way, on ONDS.
I can't get there on valuation,
but I think the more interesting segment of the market
and, you know, plug your nose in some of the valuations, but they're high for a reason, you know, where you can get exposure through AVAV, through Kato's, through Carmen.
of the missile technology control regime, right, this 35-nation, you know, 18-year-old agreement,
or 35-year-old agreement, you know, they're basically saying that, or Trump is basically
saying, we're going to redesignate some of these large drones as aircraft. And, you know, this,
first of all, was the focus of, you know, this talk about ramping up stockpiles in the U.S.
This is what we're talking about. We're talking about Patriot Interceptors. We're talking about
long-range end-to-ship missiles. We're talking about precision strike missiles, air surface
standoff missiles, all these things which are hypersonic. But the other part of this is that
this is part of Trump's initiative to not only create jobs, but also to reduce the U.S.
trade deficit. They signed this deal with Saudi Arabia back in May to sell $142 billion worth of
these missiles, which previously under this missile treaty, as a real class, they couldn't do.
So who's going to get that business? Well, you know, General Atomics and, you know,
some of these large companies,
but who supplies a lot of the technology for that?
It's the Kratos and the Karmans of the world
through their expertise in hypersonics.
So I actually think that's a safer...
Karmans are great ones.
Karmans are great ones.
Yeah, I know you've talked about Karmans a lot. It's a great one. That's the great one. Yeah, I know you've talked about Carmen a lot.
It's a great one.
That's the one defense thing that I don't own.
It's actually the most expensive, to answer your question you had earlier,
of AV, KTOS, and it goes KTOS, AVAV, or sorry, Carmen, AVAV, and KTOS.
But honestly, I don't think the valuations matter that much
because, again, these are,
you know, are these mid-cap companies? Well, they're small relative to, you know, the general
dynamics and the Lockheed Martins of the world. And, you know, the RTXs, like you said, you know,
these things might see a 2% move on one of these massive contracts. But, you know, Carmen and KTOS
provide a lot of the, you know, the componentry that make all of the supply chain work for these
things. And for them, it becomes needle moving type contracts.
Yep. I agree. I agree. Yeah. Carmen is, Carmen's awesome, dude.
Like I wanted to get it.
It's funny cause there's a report that out that we traded it on and I was just
pushed to the brim on positions at that time.
So I couldn't fully open a swing on that day.
But I wish I had because that was like the local lows.
This was the Raymond James $100 report?
Yeah.
So before I saw the report, I was like, I don't know.
He must be taking like 20, 30 numbers, you know, and then discounting them back.
And, you know, it seemed crazy to me.
But I went through this thing with a fine-tooth comb.
And, you know, this thing has got 30% growth rates and 30% EBITDA margins.
It's equivalent to a lot of software companies.
Why do they get those kind of margins?
Because they control parts of the supply chain that nobody else does.
The Northrop Grumman's of the world, if they want to fulfill these government contracts, they have to use these guys as part of their supply chain.
They just do not have another choice.
And, you know, obviously with onshoring, you know, that reduces even more competition.
So hence the margins and hence the growth.
Yeah, the margins were like really the main.
Sorry.
I just want to bring George into the conversation.
No, we're good.
We're good to keep it going.
One quick thing.
One quick thing I just wanted to say about Carmen before we move on.
For people that don't know, Carmen.
What's the ticker, by the way?
KRMN.
The report we're talking about was Ray J back on September 5th.
For those that want
to go just see that the power of, of quality analyst reports.
But, um, if you go back, this stock was trading at 52 the morning before that report came
out from Ray J report comes out from Ray J stock went from 52 to 64 the next day and
stock proceeded to go higher and is now 72. So it tells you the power of some
of these opinion leaders. And, you know, Ray J on that report, they said pretty explicitly,
the company is the most profitable in the defense ecosystem with margins at 2X, it's next pier.
And that statement at the top line of the report, just put a lot of enthusiasm into the stock and
it ripped higher. But yeah, I love Carmen and, you you know i'm glad you're in that one because a lot of people i know smart
people i know are in it but um yeah that's one i just missed my entry on but i love that name
and you know maybe in the future i'll get i'll add it to my aerospace and defense basket but
yeah that's my favorite defense name that i don't own in my basket currently i did see george
prospero joining us up here before we talk about
some of the other stuff we were talking a little defense names there i know you're actively trading
we got the prospero trade signals going out i'm sure a couple people from here have been looking
at that we uh in any defense names or anything like that what's anything interesting yeah i mean
the one that uh the one that always looks interesting in our signals is uh avav um I think that tends to be like you know something that I would say considering
the valuation um trades very well on our upside in terms of like the long-term um options markets
it does it does well in that option sentiment but an 81 on our upside is a very, very good stock, a very good, very
good rating considering its valuation.
I think it shows that both the options markets and a lot of analysts are bullish on where
it is.
So that's the one that pops in and out of our portfolio, more so as a trade swing, that
kind of thing.
But yeah, that's the one of the names that I, that I heard. Um, that is,
that is the most interesting.
What names in general are standing out for you right now, George?
I know we got, and he's posting the link right now for,
for Prospero, uh, down below the raise.
We're talking about a bunch of stuff there. It's actually there.
It's getting pinned up.
What are some of the names though that have been interesting for you trading around and anything going on?
I know Eli Lilly had a good name.
When I opened up the Prospero app, I'm noticing Eli Lilly and Baba sticking at me in the face here.
The China and the GLP one that themes would go.
And I'm also seeing Apple in third.
That's nice.
Yeah, yeah.
Apple's been strong lately.
I mean, we sent out, you know, one of our alerts recently
was for Tesla. That's been, you know, that's been gaining momentum, especially in that option
sentiment. It was running a little lower. That's doing well. I mean, today, you know, and yesterday,
Robinhood's really been streaking upwards for names that people are kind of more familiar with.
for names that people are kind of more familiar with.
We got into this a little bit ago in our trading portfolio,
but BKKT is the name that looks very strong in our signals,
considering the market cap.
That's kind of like a higher risk one that's appeared pretty well lately.
I mean, Crocs is at the top of our momentum score today
um that has good net option sentiment but it only has an upside of like um for the day of like 41
so typically like i don't play and that kind of thing but for people that like um momentum plays
um that was that was at the top did you guys add a sydney swing
like indicator i'm just curious.
It's in development.
There we go.
Well, you guys are really smart people creating some really interesting stuff.
Net option sentiment seems to be one that you're talking about here.
Obviously, it's the way you use it and you go in and stuff.
Why do we like net option sentiment? Why don't we maybe even take a step back on like
what net options sentiment actually is and how you can use it but i'm oh and just sent me a text
rivians on the long-term bear picks i know it's actually been there for a while uh because i've
done a couple of those threads on it so maybe we'll talk about it after don't have to to get
me on that one but yeah net option sentiment what is it how are we using a little bit maybe when
someone's going and obviously we've pinned up in the nest above the link to the
Republic, the crowdfund. And again, we'll talk about that in a little bit. For people who are
going in and using the app, playing around with it. I know you've talked about looking at net
option sentiment on the indexes is also something that's important. So I just, I want to hear more
about this. Yeah. A lot of people use it for that. Like if you Google like don't trim the hedges and Prospero AI sub stack or something related to that, you can actually see we actually used SPY in an option sentiment to get everybody, you know, issue a warning before liberation day. advertisements for looking at the index level things that we have.
But a lot of what we do is kind of born out of the marriage of this advanced backend
that we've been creating for many years.
I started making the systems that built it about 15 years ago.
And the practical side of how do we use kind of an advanced backend to help
people in tangible ways. And that option sentiment was born because I used to, like I still do,
I teach a lot of people one-on-one how to invest, educate them, trade, different things. I offer
my general advice, whether it's using our signals or not. That's something I'm pretty passionate about as part of my daily experience. I used to teach a lot of
people how to read options chains. There was one day where I got fed up and said, what
if I told you the options markets like this or didn't like it? The person I was talking
to said, well, if you could tell me that, we're wasting a lot of time. And yeah, I've never had to teach anyone an options chain again.
The nice thing about net option sentiment is it was really just built to crunch what was going on
in the short-term options markets into one number, zero to 100. And why we made that was really just to minimize to help you know minimize error
get people out of the way of institutions but that signal has been the primary thing that we've used
whether it be on the stock level or the market level where our newsletter picks have beaten the
market by an average of you know 67 percent um the last four years and we're really really consistent
uh this today for this year we're sitting at about 67% above the market. And yeah, net option sentiment is probably the biggest reason why.
And really, whether you know the options markets or don't, it's useful. The nice thing about it is
you don't really have to know anything about the options markets to get use out of the signal.
And as Evan kind of alluded to at the beginning,
the nice part about it is there's value to it
where it is on a zero to 100 level,
but where you see it relative to where it's been,
relative to competitors for a stock,
those index level things,
it can be even more useful
when you kind of get to know the right
levels for a stock or these indexes. You know, a lot of people report that being something that
alone has really helped them improve their returns by using the app.
Love it. So PindUpInTheNestAbove, I mentioned a little bit talking about the crowdfund there.
Can you tell me a little bit more about Prospero itself? We're talking there about
yourself, the net option sentiment, what you guys are trying to do as a company. Up and the Nest
Above is the Republic page. It's a link to be able to invest in what you guys are doing.
Obviously, we want to use this just as a place to start your research. And if you have any
questions that you want us to ask George.
Yeah, no, I'm just curious more if you could tell us a little bit about Prospero.
Like, how you go about this, like, what your background is.
Obviously, we're talking a lot of data and app builders and science-y stuff.
So, kind of taking that and melding it into this world.
Yeah, I would just love to hear a little bit more about the company itself.
Yeah, someone that has, you know, been in AI and been in AI and been in AI for almost 15 years now, I have a pretty
unique background because I started on the value investing side. My first job was at Columbia
Business School for pretty much the most famous value investing professor, Bruce Greenwald.
And from there, I actually worked in my first value fund when I was 17. I taught myself accounting to get that job. I did a lot of stuff when I was younger on the buy side,
doing some different modeling. I actually, you know, I got to start my first company
because I figured out how to model mortgages more accurately than, you know, anyone else at my pretty
large, you know, hedge fund and operating companies at the time, real estate mortgages.
I basically figured out that, you know, state laws mattered a lot more than debt to income or how much money someone had. And I kind
of parlayed that, a lot of R&D investments where we did AI as a service for eight years, basically
helping institutions build out their predictive pipelines, parlayed that into building the system
that builds the signals that Prospero has today. And a big part of our goal was basically to create tools that were both better than a
lot of things retail investors had, but also a lot simpler and easier to get up to speed
We really want something that you could be able to look maybe once a day at a stock or
an index or anything like that and get, you know, a really
good impression of everything that's going on. Like, obviously, nothing's going to beat, you
know, hours and hours of research that, you know, someone like StockTalk does. But for someone that
maybe only has five or 10 minutes in a day to look at stuff, there's nothing better out there
than Prospero. And, you know, what we're trying to do there is actually like,
create what I would call a trust engine. A lot of what we do with, you know, the app,
you know, we give it away largely for free. Well, the app is free for now. Alerts will be our first
paid feature. But some people are beta testing that right now. Then we have, you know, two newsletters. The investing one is largely free. And, you know, basically that teaches people how to take the
signals and, you know, build portfolios, adjust to macro events. You know, we really walk through
that in a simple way. You know, then, you know, we'll expand our product line. You know, these
alerts, which, you know, some people have have gotten to see, alerts are actually like our first stab
at blending our signals with generative AI outputs
to find confluence between those two signals.
Then from there, we're going to roll out a web app
and we also have a paid Discord that we're going to expand. That's where a lot
of our products will be tested. There will be a more comprehensive call and response
generated by system that we're building that will help us people navigate our signals and our ideas
even better. But longer term, we want to be in asset management. But we kind of have
a unique thing to do. And if anybody kind of wants the longer version of this, there's a really good, in the
discussion, the Q&A where someone asks us what the difference between us and pay finance is.
And pay finance is kind of like an AI personalization asset manager. But there's a pretty
easy answer there. Asset managers, especially startups, Wealthfront Betterment early on, they would
pay about a thousand dollars, um, a user, uh, we pay about a dollar 50 per user to get
people into our funnel.
So by the time we move to asset management and, you know, we're going to look at robo
advising, we're going to look at ETFs, mutual fence, all that stuff.
Uh, that's probably like a 2027 thing.
Um, and we're like a lot of our long term
revenue is going to be generated. But, you know, not only will we have this eat like top of funnel
that gets people in a lot easier to, you know, transition over to our wealth management products,
we'll actually give people a really good way to get to know the signals. You know, most people,
when they're looking at, you know at potential places to park their money,
they don't have what Prospero has, where people can see the signals.
They'll have seen it work in our newsletter picks for in 2027, six years.
So they'll kind of get to see where the sausage is made.
So we think that not only is a cheaper transition,
we also have systems
setting up to create more loyalty. And the only other thing is one of the things that's pretty
important to us and why we're doing this and why we want to earn trust so badly is part of our
long-term goal is we're going to ask people to contribute data. So we can say, ask, you know,
what's your temperature and model, say a pandemic in real time and essentially do what the senators were doing when they were looking at hospital data, reassuring the public, shorting the market.
But instead of that kind of private arbitrage, we make that more of a public utility, which would incentivize more data sharing.
And the nice thing about that is, you know, well, you know, kind of the senators were looking in a hospital.
We could be in people's homes with that kind of thing. So we can actually bring that kind of alpha to people and get out in front of it. So there's potentially huge long-term advantages
to the quality of our asset management by kind of partnering and getting this community-led data.
That's kind of the most complicated example that everybody can like understand and be like, oh yeah,
I would see where the money would be if you could get that data early. But it's really going to be as simple as, you know, our AI systems and models seeking out information from our users that make them more accurate.
Yeah, that is fair. That makes sense.
Instead of me continuing to hog this up here, like I said, the tweet is pinned up in in the nest above has a lot more information on kind of what he was saying there uh more information on the raise and
all the company as i was digging through this i've obviously seen omar's posts and i'm seeing
omar on uh on this page a little bit talking about it how you doing sir i i saw omar was
gonna bring it over to you i took a look at tesla and prosper. We have 100 upside score. I don't see that too often.
90 net options, 98 technical. Tesla is looking pretty good on the Prospero right now. Omar,
I appreciate you coming in and hanging out with us. I wonder if you have any thoughts on the
conversation there. I know, and listen, like I said, I want this to be your guys' place to come
in and start your research. I don't want you to just go in and FOMO in or do something like that.
But Omar, I do know you actually have a little bit invested in the round or a little bit coming from it yourself.
So I wanted to hear a little bit more around how you're using it, your thoughts around Prospero and maybe anything else you want to add into it?
Any person in the conversation?
Yeah, Prospero's upside indicator
for Tesla has been pretty strong all throughout this year, even at points where people were a lot
more bearish on the stock than they are right now. So that's definitely something that helped me
hold conviction, even through a lot of negativity. And that's worked out quite well as the stock has rebounded.
Yeah, Prospero is something that I've been using for a long time now. Just the basic free app in
the app store that anyone can download going in there, checking in the short-term and long-term
bull and bear picks every day and searching for stocks in my portfolio or that I hear people talking about. And they have really great clear
signals that make it super easy for anyone, whether you're an expert investor or a casual
retail investor, to kind of digest these pretty complicated signals like net option sentiment.
And then recently, I did get the crowdfund. I saw that they were doing a
crowdfund and I love the app. I use it all the time. So I decided to invest. Now I'm an investor.
I own some shares too. And because I was one of the first people in the crowdfund,
they gave me a peek at their alerts product, which just got activated, I think,
about a week or so ago. And it's an amazing product. I've been looking for something like
this in the AI space for a little bit, where AI just kind of pours through all these market signals
and just gives me one pick a day, an alert, bull or bear,
whether to open or close a position.
And that's exactly what Prospero's alert product does.
So you just get a little alert.
Actually, Tesla was mentioned on September 26th, enter bull.
And yeah, I've gotten a lot of really interesting ideas they mentioned
Blackstone UUU is a company that I had never heard of before that's involved in
uranium mining they were having you know a pretty crazy rally around the time
that alert came in so a lot of these companies that are just
really not on my radar but are really kind of adjacent to a lot of the areas
that I am looking at like energy for example it just kind of pops up as an
alert and obviously you don't just sort of blindly follow the alert you do your
own research you look into it but I found that the alerts product is
pretty amazing in terms of just putting things onto my radar that I might not have noticed
otherwise. So I know investors are always sort of looking for ideas, signals. This is something that
I found is very data driven, where they're processing these signals that they're
focused on in the market, and just kind of boiling it down to you. So you're not spending a ton of
time digging through all that stuff yourself. You're just getting this nice, simple alert.
And then you can take action if you feel like it. So, I mean, honestly, it's kind of worth it
to invest in the crowdfund
just for early access to this alerts product.
In addition to getting equity,
you're able to get sneak peek early access
into some of these new features like alerts.
And I know they have a ton of new stuff
coming in down the pipeline.
So I feel like I already got my money's worth
just from the alerts project.
And I think Prospero and just the theme of AI
and investing in general
is going to be something we're talking about more and more.
I don't think there's going to be any investors left
in a few years who aren't using AI in some capacity.
And there's just a ton of room for growth.
So yeah, it's always good to be able to get in the private markets for a company that
you think has a lot of upside potential.
A small company can easily 10x or 100x much more easily than, you know, say a $5 trillion giant, I think.
So I'm really happy that I got involved with the crowdfund, enjoying the alerts product and
definitely recommend it to everyone else.
I love it. That was awesome. That was awesome. As you were talking, I saw we were looking at the screener and the first couple of names on there, some names we spent a lot of the spaces talking about. Nebius, Robinhood and Tesla on this growth screener. But Omar, I think that was that was really well said in there.
don't use this too much for like, you know what, let me ask this as a question. I'm curious how
you use this for something like Tesla, which I'm sure if anyone is in here who's a fan of Omar,
you know, this guy knows everything inside and out with Tesla versus maybe some of these other
themes where it's putting something on your radar or something like that. So kind of what I'm asking
here is when you know something really well, how are you using this? Or and when you maybe know
something just a little bit, not as much, how are you using it? I when you maybe know something just a little bit not as much how are you using it i know you talked about that a little bit there i'd be curious on if there's a
part of those that you enjoy using a little bit more than the other one but yeah yeah definitely
i mean i have all of my biggest positions you know tesla nvidia apple some others in the watch list
section of the app so you can actually go in, you can find
your favorite positions and just add them to the watch list. And for my big positions, I obviously
do a ton of research. I look at everything from talking to customers to how are the financials
doing. And then you've got these signals and they really kind of boil down the market activity that you're seeing in a way that is super easy to distill.
So if you're thinking about your position sizing, you're thinking about, you know, do I want to be a little more overweight or do I want to be a little more underweight on this name?
Do I want to trade around it a little bit or just, you know, when's a good time bit? Or just when's a good time to get in?
When's a good time to get out? These signals are really informative in helping you make those kinds
of decisions. So for something like Tesla, this year when we saw so much negativity, we saw sales
declining, we saw everybody coming out and lighting their Teslas on fire and saying,
I hate Elon Musk. It can be easy to get kind of swayed by the headlines. But then you look at
Prospero, you look at signals like net option sentiment, you look at the upside rating,
which has been close to 100%. And it does help along with additional signals,
other things that you're seeing to build conviction. I mean, there weren't a lot of
positive signals early in the year for Tesla. But looking at that Prospero, every day, I kind of
looked at my portfolio. I looked at my Prospero watch list. I looked at the bull and bear picks.
And it did help me build some additional
conviction. So I use it a lot for new ideas, use the search function, but I also keep an eye on my
largest holdings through the watchlist functionality, which they make really easy and simple.
George, you got any thoughts to add to that?
Yeah, I mean, I think, you know omar omar used it and
you know a lot of the a lot of the ways that you know we we hope people would how it was intended
to be created um but yeah i mean i think i think where it can really really help is in the situations
where it's pointing to something very different than the market. And I think in the case of Tesla, we basically, you know, we had it at 100,
where I think 98 was like the lowest it got, all the way when it was still at, I think, 225.
And obviously, we're almost double there now. So I think the big thing is,
sometimes there's a huge difference between what institutions are betting on in the options markets
and the news cycle. And we've seen that. I think this was probably one of the most pronounced
examples where you'd look around and you'd hear a lot
about people saying Tesla's over. But then a lot of those same people that might have been
planning those headlines or whatever, they're loading up in the long-term options markets on
Tesla in a very convincing way, more than any other stock to be at, you know, 100 for that long. And,
you know, another time that kind of reminded me of that was Meta. Like, we got into Meta at 170.
And, you know, the first two months I saw it at 100 upside, I kind of ignored it because I thought
that, you know, Prospero didn't know that Mark Zuckerberg was an idiot, or at least that's what
I told myself. But as I watched it sit there, I was like, oh, maybe I'm missing something here. And it's the same kind of thing. Even though
there was a lot of distrust of Mark Zuckerberg and the zeitgeist, institutions had started to
really load up on long-term options. And I think that's of the objectivity of Prospero really helps because, you know, there is a social sentiment signal.
But because of the way we kind of like separate out these ideas, it's not blended together.
Right. When we're talking about upside, we're looking at things like the long term options markets.
like analyst ratings price targets the extent that analysts are um uh pricing the stock above
where it's trading percent buy recommendations things like price momentum factors which actually
with tesla going down in price momentum it actually shows how overwhelmingly the options
markets and analysts um liked where the stock was going um it to be at 100, because obviously the
price momentum wasn't necessarily there.
And yeah, that's what's really nice about a signal like upside or an option sentiment
versus a technical signal.
Technical flow is one of our 10 signals as well, by the way. But where something like an RSI on meta at various times was showing overbought, people
would ask us, it's showing overbought, should I hold my meta?
And I'm like, yeah, if it's live at 100, it means the options markets are live with
new bets being placed above where the stock is trading in the long-term options markets
for it to stay at that 100 rating. Price targets keep getting raised. So it's a nice responsive
signal that if you see it at 100, if you see it staying at 100, that means there's live
overwhelming bullishness on a stock.
To that point, Meta, in like the spring summer of 2023, RSI was like at 86 and the price
was trading like 250, 260 a share.
We never came back to even test that spot again, just to go with that point there on
the RSI.
die. Yeah, and I think that's why I like that example so much, because that's something where
we had like real, real people coming in and seeing numbers like that and me being like, no, I'm
confident it's still good, because, you know, that's what we designed it to do, especially with
the emphasis on the options markets. Like we know that if the options markets change,
we're updating very quickly.
And as long as it looks bullish, the signal's bullish.
And we think it has more room to run up.
I do see someone just put in, I refreshed it,
someone just put in $1,000, nice.
Probably up to 250 different investors.
I see the $1,000 tier. There is a
product strategy summit invite. What does that mean? So there's a lot of people that, you know,
that throw a lot of ideas at us. We'd love to build them all, but we're, you know, we're
definitely trying to create, you know, a group of people that have, you know, that have skin in the
game. I always love that for people that are just like, they're not just throwing suggestions at us, they're owners. And, and yeah,
I mean, that summit is just going to kick it off, but, you know, we're going to host a Zoom call,
we're going to share our roadmap, we're going to talk about how we think of, you know, we think of
the products that get rolled out. And, you know, the people that, you know, buy in at that level
that attend, you know, they're going to have a say in if we maybe reroute that roadmap
and think about it differently.
So yeah, we think that that's a pretty cool perk.
Very cool, very cool.
Shayan, what's up, Shai?
How are we doing?
Mr. Shai Belor. This is a busy guy. He's on TV a lot.
We might have gotten him at a bad time there. No worries.
Sam, do we have you, Sam?
You do.
How are you doing, sir?
How are you?
I'm doing fabulous. How are you, sir?
I'm doing well. We've had you on the Spaces hanging out with us for a little bit.
I wonder if you have any thoughts on Prospera. Are you a user yourself?
Yeah, I use Prospera pretty much to start looking at trends.
It actually gives you a pretty good idea of when I should add to positions.
Also, it's just one of the tools in the tool belt.
A lot of traders will tell you never make one tool your single indicator
whether you should go long or not.
But this one adds a lot of alpha.
I think I've spoken to it a few times,
but this actually helped me go long with Baba calls that expire in 2026.
Baba's the number one name.
It's the number one name on the short-term bull list right now.
Number two on long-term bull.
Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't be surprised it keeps going up, but I think a lot of that asymmetric risk reward
is, I don't want to say sucked out, but I think a lot of it is not as attractive as it was when
I was with the 1-teens. And I think there was a lot of people who, I remember what has happened
in price action. It was like the 1-teens and then it jumped up to like the 1-23s and they
pulled all the way back to the 1-16s. And I think there was like a lot of and then it jumped up to like the one 23s and they pulled all the way back to the one 16s.
And I think there was like a lot of a lot of impatience with a lot of shareholders, people that were people that want to go long got shaken out.
But the Prospero score seemed very bullish in the short term and the long term of Alibaba.
And it didn't really take long, maybe a couple of weeks for the stock to basically trade trade at where it is today, around $180, which is like a four-year high for it.
And it was, I mean, Prospero called it.
Like, it was truly amazing.
Obviously, there were a lot of other factors that were included the herd on the other side of the position you want to be in, it creates a bit of a catalyst for anything to just really propel the stock up.
And that's what we saw with Tesla.
That's what we saw with UNH.
That's what we saw Alibaba and many other companies even this year in 2025, even after the market jumped up 25%, 30% from its lows in April.
So I continue to use it as a good sentiment indicator,
but also as a good option indicator
for short-term swing plays.
And yeah, I mean, it's a great app.
I just open it up,
tells me where to go, and so on.
And I just put that as one checkmark
for whether I should go long with stock or not.
This trust, this George, Baba,
has been one that's definitely been, you guys have gotten right.
I'm looking back at a couple of the posts I made when I made like the long-term bull and bear and stuff like that.
Alibaba was number two on the long-term bull list on July 25th.
Alibaba stock was at about 120 there.
Now it had a little, yeah, it went sideways for a minute,
and we shot off to 180.
Why did, and it was on the short-term bull list for a while as well.
I have a post out on August 8th, which it was on there.
And these are just my posts where I was able to see it
on the short-term bull list at around like 120.
Why was Alibaba a name that you guys were able to do pretty
well on, um, with this? Is there something that also within that you think like, maybe it's like
the type of name or something that it worked well on, or is this just the power of Prospero?
Yeah. I mean, it's pretty much, it's pretty much a blank canvas. Like that's the nice thing about
it. There's nothing too complicated about like,
we are, you know, we show exactly like our thinking on this. Like you can see if you go on the app, like the short-term bulls and bears are just like, you know, adding option sentiment
to social sentiment. The long-term is looking at upside, minus downside, plus profitability.
There's other little filters that we do to de-risk some of the picks.
But it really is that straightforward, right?
BABA is going to be there in the short term picks because people love it in the options markets and in the social pages.
And I think there's two really nice things about that. One
is, you know, that's a lot to the market these days, especially because a lot of what we do
with net option sentiment is isolating institutional options demand. So like, if you
see something that like the institutional short-term options markets like, and, you know,
people like it on socials, there's obviously gonna be a lot of momentum behind that.
So there's kind of good logic to every system
that we build and everything there.
And yeah, I mean, obviously there's some other components
to it, but what I really like about especially,
there's a lot of these kind of like dual signal things
that I think are very helpful,
but I actually don't really like
social sentiment alone. And that's because like, when you see something at 100 social sentiment,
like, you don't really know if that's like the crescendo of the social, or, you know,
or it's just that popular, it's going to keep running. It's very hard to determine that. But
if you're kind of
seeing the net option sentiment, you know, going up and net social going up, you can be a lot more
confident that, you know, the institutions are agreeing with what's going on. Or if you know,
it's kind of going the other way. If like, if you wake up tomorrow and, you know, Alibaba is all of
a sudden, you know, social sentiment is still high, but Alibaba is all of a sudden at an 80 net option sentiment, it's fallen a lot.
You could be like, okay, it's time to get out.
The institutions have started to turn on this stock.
Even just using the short term and that alone, it can be very helpful.
Individual signals, these combo signals are like looking at everything together as well.
I'm looking at a buy-do right here.
Keep going.
That action piece he was just talking about,
I think that's very helpful for people to kind of understand that,
okay, how can I use this?
Because there's so many tools, I think, for traders and investors out there. But
the one thing about Prospero, it does simplify things down a lot for you. I mean, it's not hard
to really understand the app and get into it. And then I like to think about the emotions.
I think the biggest detriment to most investors or traders is emotions, right? We see people
in a big market correction, pull back, get emotional and, right? We see people in a big market correction,
pull back, get emotional and sell things.
We see people make rash decisions
rather than informed, I guess,
thoughtful decisions would be the correct term there.
And in the emotional side of things,
a lot of people, there was a narrative
that China was uninvestable,
that China was untradeable almost
even for a long time. And a lot of people had BABA and Baidu, I think you're about to mention
there, which I've told my success story. I had Baidu on the no trade list for a long time. I know
a lot of people had BABA on a no trade list for a very long time. And trying to come back from that,
get rid of any PTSD as an investor or trader and say, okay, let me separate the emotions from the stock.
And now I can use AI, I can use Prospero, and I can see, okay, well, it's both short and long-term bull.
And like my recent success story, Baidu, I got into it.
I didn't really have to think about it a whole lot. I liked the chart and the base it had, but then I saw the signals that the AI was telling me
right there on my phone app,
which we haven't mentioned this on the space yet.
The Prospero AI app is free in the app store.
If you haven't downloaded it yet,
you should just go download it and check it out for yourself,
especially if you're considering investing.
You should definitely check out the app for yourself.
It's a fantastic tool.
But that's one side of it is the emotions thing,
I think is so important to be able to mitigate those.
And like on the other side,
we know that Rivian,
especially around a lot of our spaces,
Rivian, very, very popular stock,
very much talked about in a lot of the circles on this app.
But it's gone back and forth for quite a long
time, honestly. And it's been in a downtrend for quite a long time, honestly. And it's one of those
that I see, and I don't want to sound bearish by any means, I'm not taking any shots at Rivian,
but what I'm saying is people can easily get married to that stock. But if you look at the
technicals and what the AI is
saying, the AI is saying, well, right now it's still on the long-term bear pick. So maybe that
does keep you out of trouble on the other side. So as much as you may miss an opportunity because
you put a stock on the no trade list or whatever you want to call it, whatever you call it in your
watch list, on the other side is something like a Rivian that maybe you love Rivian and you're
invested in Rivian, but
instead of adding to a position, you can look and say, okay, well
actually the technicals and a lot of the net options sentiment, some of the stuff is not just fantastic right now. It's on the bear pick list.
Nice.
I'm looking if you guys have any questions or anything like that you guys want us to ask
as well.
We got Ben asking, I'm going to ask him in a slightly maybe nicer way, but this is still
a very valid question.
The returns and all that stuff that are kind of talked about on this on the website here
and beating the index and everything like that by that large of a percentage.
How is that stuff being verified? How can we kind of track how that is going?
Maybe how can we track that in real time for people or even going forward?
What is how are we can we know that stuff is real or what's some of the stuff that you were doing?
Yeah. So like the nice thing here is like we're very conscious about like how a lot of people are like cherry picking, doing shit like that. Soweek picks, we, you know, screenshot and we deliver
to only our paid users. But then those all go in. If you look at, you know, if you look at our
profile, I think it should like click to a six month review, which would then have you click
into the picks. But yeah, all of the picks are available for everybody to see that sheet. You
can see the methodology for how we calculate it.
We share our reviews and kind of say what we see thematically.
But, you know, the long and the short is, especially if you are a paid user,
you can verify every pick that we make, you know, in our entries and exits.
And, you know, we've never had, you know, actually, I'm wrong. This year, for the first time,
we had someone question if we eliminated something, and we immediately were able to
screenshot where we entered it, the letter that we entered, the letter that we exited,
linked to those things. So nobody had ever questioned it until about two months ago. But the first person that did, we very easily
identified where we were in and what we were doing. So yeah,
we're very open about it. Anyone can see and you can look at
the sheets. There's basically individual year sheets that you
can go and then there's, you know, reviews, we're actually
about to post our nine month review review or three-quarter review for this year.
I would encourage people to click on the link up top
and go in here and look.
If you've downloaded the app,
there's a full walkthrough of this.
There's a lot of really good information in here
about the crowdfund,
but also just about the app itself and how you use it.
How is the growth going, George? I mean, I remember seeing on here, I was reading it again just now, 163 countries that you guys are currently in. I'm assuming, is it just in English? Is it
multiple languages? And how's the growth and adoption been? Yeah, we're in 103 countries,
even though like we'd like to do other languages, but we haven't
really, we haven't had the resources to really execute on some of those things that we'd
love to do in our roadmap yet.
But yeah, I mean, since we've started like marketing around the crowdfund and, you know,
upping this, like I'd say that the visibility in the last like four months,
we've 3X'd our weekly actives on the app alone. And our app plus newsletter weekly actives are up
50%, which is up to about 15,000 weekly active users. And then, you know, our revenues are up,
you know, almost 40% since we started the campaign
on our paid newsletter products.
And, you know, that's obviously even before
that we release, before we even release
this, the alerts app, that's going to be our highest,
like our alerts product, which is going to be
our highest ticket product by an order of like 2.5x. And then yeah, our conversions are actually
doing really well too on our newsletters. Our conversion to paid is almost 10%. And the cool
thing about that is only 25% of our total users even want to pay for our newsletter. 75% asked for alerts, entries,
and exits. So that's why we're really excited for the potential of this alerts product when we
release it to paid users. But obviously right now, it's only available to people that invest
in the crowdfund. Oh, man, I do see that someone else just went in and invested. We're up to 251 investors. You can see all that information right here on the crowdfund. 30 days left now. So the clock is starting to tick a little bit. Another thing that I noticed on here.
are less than a year. They're no longer leaps. I feel like there should be something for one that
when it circles under less than a month. Listen, we don't need our goals not here to tell you guys
to go in and go and buy this or anything like that. But we just want to put opportunities that,
you know, companies are working with companies that are coming to us and that, you know, we're
selective on and this was definitely one of those I put a little bit of money in. I don't know if
we talked about that. But I do want to put that disclaimer into it. There's just 30 days left, so if you are going to do your research, now is probably a good
time to at least start it. I don't know if you guys want to make these decisions off the rip,
or you want to feel good about it. Download the app as well, which if you just search for
Prospero AI in the app store, you'll find it. Evan, did you see the update on here the uh george put this out yesterday uh and i actually saw this
tweet pop up in my head the other day yeah where george you asked uh you asked grok what you asked
perplexity too both uh i guess evan was a part of that i i saw the one that uh that i guess george
or whoever behind the prospero account put out there, you asked Grok and Perplexity what the most likely crowdfund investments to be successful in Republic was.
And Prospero did come up on this.
That's pretty interesting.
Yeah, I mean, yeah, I can't even take too much credit for that.
But yeah, it's cool.
I can't believe that.
That's definitely like it's got like, I i think 1.5 million views on that tweet so yeah i think that's the that's the most views on a prospero related
tweet um ever and yeah i gotta give i gotta give the republic platform um credit for that one
because an investor came in and they told me that uh that the reason they invested was that
um they asked that question to Grok.
So I was like, well, is that real?
And then I did, and I was like, holy, yeah, I was like, that's cool.
And yeah, I got to give credit to Evan, because I didn't even think to ask Perplexity.
But yeah, Perplexity is the main AI that I use, so cool to see us highlighted there as well.
Yeah, I thought, you know what?
So I was like, all right, is this real, or am I just getting an advertising thing sent at me So I was like, alright, is this real or am I
just getting an advertising thing sent
on me? I was like, oh, cool, this is real.
It actually said it, and then I was like, alright, let's play
around. Is
Perplexity going to show me the same thing? And it did.
It was a cool little thing. It makes
my job easy.
Grok. Let's see. Now, I can't
promise Grok has given you good information, but I can't promise he's not
given you good information either.
So, who knows?
Maybe you go and ask it.
There was a question from the crowd here.
It just says, is the AI smarter or just faster at losing your money?
But I know that's a question in jest there, George, but you guys do a lot of
education around this as well. I know you have a big education background in teaching traders
and investors, but the education piece is big around Prospero, right? Yeah. And I mean,
that's a big reason we do things like the way that we do and not in other ways. Like there's
a lot of products that'll like, there's a lot of like, I think like AI slot products out there
that'll just like put you right in front of like, you know, you can ask it
for a stock recommendation and they'll give it to you.
But, you know, not only there are a lot of hallucinations, like a lot of the times, like,
you know, I see a competing product that some people use that people say are easy to use.
And if you ask it to compare stocks, it'll give you like the PE ratios.
And like, that's, I don't think a good way to value stocks in today's market.
So like a lot of what we're doing is we are teaching people to fish. We are, um, we are
giving people signal that we think will help them improve. Like we're not promising magic bullets.
We're promising you that if you integrate our signals into your process, you will get better.
And I've been promising people that for years and nobody's ever come back and said that it hasn't made them better. You know, just look at, you know, even just net
option sentiment before you do entries or exits. So, you know, check out some of our ideas,
see if it can find confluence with your ideas. Like there's going to be things that you see
that are going to make it better. And, you know, even the reason I'm talking to you on this space,
like with all these, you know, influencers here, the reason for that is like a lot of them have
found it useful to them. And a lot of them, you know, on average are a lot, you know,
better at doing this than the average retail investor. So, I mean, the only other thing I'd
say in closing is everything we do is thoughtful about not only putting out accurate information, managing
expectations around it, but also filtering it well.
There's a reason it's been about a year and a half since we've been playing around with
Generative AI before it ended up in our first alerts product.
It's because anytime I asked a Generative AI, or different MVPs that we've done, what the best
options contract to trade, it always gave me a contract. And some of them even gave me old
information. And the problem with that is, that's a bad answer. You shouldn't be dispensing options
contracts unless you know more about the person that's going to use it. So I think a lot of those
products are bad, but we're like highly differentiated in that area. You know, for the generated AI stuff that ends up in our trade alerts, basically it
has to find something with our signals agreeing with, you know, whatever it is coming out
of the generated AI system.
And then before I put it into alert, I'm actually looking and verifying the points and just
like ingesting the points in it that I think are
the most valid things to supplement the signals.
Even now we're doing it in a bit of a supervised way, which is going to feed back into our system
as I grade the responses that will be ultimately training data for the broader AI system.
We're very thoughtful about how we do this.
And the biggest concern for us is accuracy, not shipping products.
All right, Space getting sidetracked a little bit.
Look at the tweet Omar pinned up in the nest above.
He's playing our, speaking of AI, he was playing around with the new Soar app, I think this is.
We got Sam Altman covering the round.
He's getting in.
We got a new... We missed it.
We got a new, what's it called?
The big backer for the round or whatever.
But we got a lead investor coming in, Sam Altman.
It was a funny time when we started to talk about the AI stuff
and Omar getting creative up in the nest above.
Yeah, congratulations
to Sam. I think this could be
his biggest project yet.
It was good.
That was good.
I do see we got
a stock talk. Do you want to back up here?
Yes, we have a Stock Talk joining us back up here. Yes, my phone died.
Sounds like you need to upgrade
to the new iPhone 17.
We're talking
a little bit about Prospero here.
One of the things we were looking through
the screener
and the Growth Bull one, like I was saying earlier.
Nebius is one, Robinhood is two,
Tesla is three, Alibaba four, EOSC is five, three of those
stock talk names soft. I know, right? The top three. There you
go. So we're getting some stock talk loyalty. But yeah, we're
talking some Prospero here. I don't know if you've looked into
the raise at all. And you have any questions on the website,
there's 30 days left. So we've had a couple people go into it
during this but yeah, or how you're using the website. There's 30 days left. So we've had a couple people go into it during this.
Or how you're using the website.
Or if you want to go into a six-hour
monologue, you could, I guess.
Yeah, I mean, I think
Prospero is a great tool for people
that don't have the time to do the work I do.
I mean, I'm an old-school guy,
so I can't pretend that I use any
tools that often. I mean, I use LLMs every day, but that's really just me trying to contextualize
the research I'm doing outside of it. But yeah, I mean, I do this full time. I've done
this full time for my whole life. So for people that don't trade and invest...
Have you tried to add net option sentiment data into what you're doing?
Have you tried to add net option sentiment data into what you're doing?
Not really, no.
I mean, I have a pretty, like I said, I mean, what's suitable for me is not the same thing as, like, what's suitable for the average trader investor.
Because most people aren't spending, you know, 50 hours a week researching undiscovered mid-cap stocks, which is what I do.
So that's not, there's not as much of an overlap
but like you mentioned i mean there are stocks that i own that i didn't own when you know that
i owned when they weren't popular that are popular now and you know the data like you mentioned three
there's three of my names on that on that top of that list so you know even omar earlier brought
up energy fuel he said he'd never heard of it? Like we've owned that stock for a long time. So, um, yeah, uh, I don't use a ton of tools personally because I do a lot
of sort of original research, I guess is what you could call it. Or I try to, uh, on, on industries
that I'm interested in, but I think for people who don't have the time,
which is the vast majority of people,
AI tools can help you accelerate your knowledge on these things.
You know, it's a pretty straightforward thing.
Most people have full-time jobs and they invest on the side.
And, you know, if you're one of those people,
which again is the majority of people,
then tools like this can be very helpful
because you're not going to have time to do the sort of research that I do on most
stocks. It takes a long time. You know, you have to like go through earnings calls. Many times I
have to like do research outside of traditional sources to try to find things out. So yeah,
it's a, it's a different ball game when you're busy and when you need stuff to be
simplified for you and when you need data to be presented to you in a quick react sort of way.
And that's what most people need. So, you know, tools like this can be very useful for that.
George, I'd be curious your, your kind of answer to someone like that. I'm sure as you're talking to so many different people, that's something that you hear.
And I heard your point earlier about this, that there's always something that you could
go in and add it to yourself.
So I'd be curious on what type of response a lot of basically qualitative research, and obviously there's some numbers to it as well, but someone that's just going to form a deep, deep long-term thesis, this isn't necessarily going to add that much because around that thesis, StockTalk is going to be
adjusting based on how news numbers interact with that. And so introducing new data to that
isn't necessarily going to be that useful. But I would say that's probably the only method that
it's not going to be useful. Like we have traders
that have pretty, you know, that have pretty, you know, experienced systems that this data is
helpful to supplement for. You know, we've had people, you know, that are more long-term investors,
but that don't have time to like, you know, or, you know, the experience level needed to really
understand how to form a long-term thesis, how to, or, you know, the experience level needed to really understand how to form
a long-term thesis, how to integrate live numbers into that, things like this.
So, so yeah, if you're talking about like, you know, kind of expert level, you know,
thesis forming around, you know, numbers, qualitative experience.
I know Stocktalk mentions that he's doing a lot of, you know, generative AI around, you know, filings at that level. It's not going to add a ton of value,
but we definitely have very experienced people that do have more of an investing lien that find
it useful from kind of like an enhanced dollar cost averaging standpoint. Like we have had a lot of people, you know, Corey comes on these spaces a lot.
You know, that's how she started using it.
Basically like using something like net option sentiment or social sentiment to basically
say like, okay, I'm not just going to do a pure average to my names.
I'm going to tilt it more towards names that start in the signals.
I know a lot of people are successful with that kind of methodology. But like, you know, even someone like
Corey, I think you'll find like she mentions that she's become more of a swing trader. And this data
is an important, you know, is important data that got her there. So I think that that's the other
part about Prospero. That's really cool. It can actually grow your confidence to move into new areas as well.
Gotcha.
That is, yeah.
I was just going to say, you think about somebody like StockTalk,
who's done this for a long time, obviously found great success in doing this
and the amount of time
he spends. But I mean, I'm looking on the link right here, George, over 70% of retail investors.
I hear different numbers thrown out. I hear 70%, I hear 90% of retail investors don't
prosper. I think it's more like 90% of traders don't make it. 70% of retail investors don't make
it. That part's really interesting to me as well,
because I feel like in the day and age that we're in now,
I mean, ever since kind of that chat GPT moment,
it was kind of like, okay, retail now has the same tools
that the investment banks have.
And that 70% number,
I feel like that's going to go down over time.
And maybe you guys are part of the reason of that.
George, we're coming up on the...
Yeah, there are a lot of numbers.
That number, that 70% is actually like DIY investors,
which I think that's like separating out,
you know, people that do, you know, active investments,
anyone that picks individual stocks
from like the pure passive, you know, obviously for people that especially don't have a lot of time, you know, active investments, anyone that picks individual stocks from like the pure passive,
you know, obviously for people that especially don't have a lot of time,
you know, passive is like a lot more reliable. But yeah, I think a lot of people, you know,
what I've seen on kind of a more longitudinal basis, a lot of these up-down cycles,
you see a lot of people just picking stocks, taking on risk,
doing very well in a bull market, and then people losing that and more when the market turns and
actually exiting in their losses. And I think that's how those numbers get there. And that's
where using the kind of process that Prospero teaches is, you know, especially important.
You know, I did mention, you know, this letter we had at the beginning on, you know, you
know, two days before Liberation Day called Don't Trip the Hedges, where we were actually
being like, our market level signals are showing a lot of concern.
You know, this is how you could use inverse ETFs to manage risk.
And if you're, you know, also really confident, potentially even profit off of
this if you want to use that and exit out of a lot of your longs. So yeah, I think that's the
thing. There's a lot of these things like the copy trading platforms. You're literally inundated
with stuff that are not going to do well when the market turns and using the
Prospero signals, you know, learning how to, you know,
manage a portfolio around it, have some exposure, you know,
to the short side of the market, whether it be the inverse ETFs or, you know,
some of the bear picks that we give,
like that is going to be the difference between you being that statistic and
perhaps even making money on the way down too.
Do you have time for one more question here?
You got a hard stop.
We're already past the top of the hour.
Yeah, I mean, I can.
I don't know if it works for everybody else.
No, I mean, I'm here.
We'll make it work for them.
Listen, we talked a lot about the app and stuff like that.
I want to talk about, I'm looking at the raise here, the valuation cap is $16 million.
Why do you think you're worth $16 million on this?
My question is kind of just about money and how are you guys making money on this?
What is the kind of plans for making a lot of money?
I mean, we can try and justify that valuation, but I would more hear that pathway towards, you know, revenue. Yeah. The valuation we're benchmarking to some other,
um, you know, crowd funds that we think are kind of like a similar vibe to us. Like urban finance,
um, is one, there was one called personify that was, um, a similar valuation. And we're just kind
of like, I think those are the closest comps that we've seen on crowdfunding.
And we're just like getting it close to the comps.
I do think like our IP portfolio is, you know,
highly valuable even at our revenue levels.
And that's like, what's going to like
build our long-term, you know, wealth management story.
But yeah, on the upside,
I think we could be a huge asset manager.
And as we build to that,
I think we're going to kind of roll out more and more of these,
you know, fee for service products that are kind of higher and higher ticket,
scaling to a bigger and bigger audience.
And I mean, yeah, you know, with some of these, you know, with some of these retention statistics
that we started to do the user growth statistics. Like since we even posted the crowd
fund, um, we were actually able to, um, raise our, um, raise our 2020, uh, our 2026, um,
projection, I believe to, um, I'm trying to pull it up as we talk i believe we raised it to 1.4 uh million um and you know
that's higher than when we started obviously we're getting a lot more of this um engagement
um let me just see what we raised our projection to we raised the 2026.
Is this one of the things that's sent out as like an update on the Republic page or the after what happens?
Yeah.
So 1.49 million in 2026, we raised it.
And then, you know, with some of those numbers, you know, 20 by 2028, we're projecting 13.66
million.
And that's the first 2028 is the first full year.
We'll have our wealth management products released.
Okay, there we go.
I appreciate you on that one for that answer.
Emp, you got any final thoughts you want to go in here?
Any final questions?
Amp, I'm good on my end over here.
I'm excited about it.
I'm excited about the opportunity.
I feel like I can't invest in enough AI.
Every time I look around at all the different AI pieces of things, I feel like I can't get
enough of it.
So I'm just excited to have the opportunity to get my little piece of the pie here as an investment. And like I said, I publicly invested
just the other day. So I looked at it. I did my research, kind of dug into the website there on
that link and kind of convinced, I mean, the product almost convinced myself. If anything,
that Baidu trade that I took using Prospero was kind of like my, what am I doing here? I,
this thing's awesome. So that was kind of my aha moment.
Yeah. And you guys got 30 days and take your time to look into it as much time
as you guys need. But I mean, there is a little bit of a timeline in it,
so definitely go tweets pinned up in the nest above.
I'm going to actually take down the Omar one. That is a little bit of a timeline in it so definitely go tweets pinned up in the nest above I'm gonna actually take down the Omar one that is a fantastic uh meme right there I gotta go and check out the app and and use some other stuff there but George you got any final words anything
you think that the people should also dig in deeper on when they're going to the website
yeah I mean you know maybe if they have more questions our discord is really good you can
have a link on the on that yeah, I always tell people,
whether you want to find out more about the products,
get the free trial,
like get a free trial to try something out.
You can always email me at georgeatprospero.ai.
And I mentioned like,
even if you just want to improve your investing
or trading education or whatever,
I'm happy to advise you on that.
You can just email me.
Appreciate you, George.
Let me know if anyone has any more questions or anything like that.
I'm sure we'll do another one of these.
We're coming up to the point now, like I said,
we want you to be able to have plenty of time
to do your research.
So if you don't start it now,
then you're probably going to be in a time crunch situation.
So take a look in. Today
is a good time to actually, if you guys
heard this, we still have like 350,
400 people. We're hanging out for pretty much
this entire thing even more.
And there's no sports tonight,
so it's either go play Geoguessr
with Evan or do some
research on an investment.
I've been getting,'m getting i'm getting better
at geoguessr so it's a fun game now maybe we even uh do a live stream at some point and we just do
like a walkthrough of the thing george maybe i'll even come and talk to you about that at some
point but i appreciate everyone i saw we got uh at least two people come in of you guys go in if
you guys want to message us of who came in and invested and joined us in
this, I'd be curious.
I saw at least two of you, a new of you guys come in and do that.
But yeah, I appreciate everyone.
I'm blabbering.
Have a good one, team.
I enjoyed this one.
Appreciate you, George.
Make sure you follow that Prospero account,
all the great panelists that have been up here.
Stock Talk, I didn't get the drone answer I wanted.
I wanted you to tell me that by the end of the season
or by 2026 next year when the Cowboys get back on track
that Jerry Jones is going to have a drone drop him off at Jerry World.
That was the answer I was really looking for.
Yeah, maybe he'll have a little EV till take them down there,
but drones will be here sooner than, than you expect the same way autonomous
vehicles were right.
Like literally go on your Twitter feed like a year ago and people said it
wasn't going to happen. Now they're everywhere. So yeah, it'll,
it'll all happen more quickly than you think it will.
That's how technology works.
Anyone ever remember in the 90s?
I don't know how some people in the audience might be too young for this,
but, you know, when cell phones started coming out and people were like,
yeah, I'm always going to have a phone in my house, you know,
and within four years, like, there were no phones in houses.
And even the ones that were there, people weren't using them anymore.
That's fast.
That's not a lot of time.
Think about how long phones were in houses.
Like landlines.
Like 100 years.
More than that.
And then in four years, they're all gone.
They're obsolete in four years, they're all gone. Like they're obsolete in four years.
So technology moves fast.
And pretty soon,
most of these fulfillment warehouses
won't have anyone in them.
They'll have three or four guys.
They'll have a software IT guy
who manages the warehouse software platform. They'll have a software it guy who manages the warehouse software platform they'll have a
guy that walks around the floor to make sure another robot robots are malfunctioning they
might have some security and that's it you know a bunch of people sitting at home in front of
screens like me and you controlling all that yeah or a bunch of people sitting at home doing nothing getting ubi which is much more
likely okay there you go that's much more likely and a simpler solution not as elegant but more
likely i mean if you can make everything autonomously it'll be dirt cheap like the
means of production will be dirt cheap right because everything will be fixed cost you want to pay health insurance you won't have to like replace workers train workers
there's no like subdued turnover costs nothing it's just robots building stuff and you fix them
every once in a while or buy a new one and like that is the future it's not like some sci-fi shit that everyone imagines
people think about like sci-fi that's the future that's what's gonna happen it is going to happen
it's not my opinion it's not like a debate it's gonna happen it's just a matter of time
we're facing like the cost curve now the next five years all about cost curve you can already
build a robot there are humanoid robots already there are already
many companies have built them and they work they walk around on their own many of them have really
sophisticated battery architecture and can perform for long periods of time the problem is not
building the robot the problem is building it at scale and selling it at scale affordably. That's the curve. Would you say data is the
other piece of that?
That'll just exponentially
make these robots better and
better?
Let's imagine this.
Imagine today, if
somebody took today's LLMs,
no improvement, just
today's LLMs, and put it inside a functional robotic body, would that be productive?
I think it'd be very productive.
Right?
So I actually think it's less – I don't want to say we've gone over the data hump.
We haven't.
I mean, look at the GPU spend.
Look at the amount of, you know, training that's still going on. So
there's still clearly perceived upside in the capability of the AI models. That's fine. They're
going to keep chasing that goose higher and higher till they've achieved what they think is AGI.
But let's just take today's models, put it inside a humanoid body. Could it do things effectively?
a humanoid body, could it do things effectively?
Yeah.
What's the barrier right now?
Well, the barrier is tooling and scale.
That's it.
Tooling and scale.
So once a supply chain is built, where robot hands and fingers and vision architecture and, you know, the gears for the legs and all that
stuff is built into a sophisticated supply chain. And on top of that, you get to the point of
functionality where these things can operate smoothly and seamlessly and engage with their
environments. Today's LMs are already good enough to be the brain for those things for very basic tasks now the more complicated the tasks get the more sophisticated
the ai has to become that's another hurdle but that the era of robotics and autonomy and all
that stuff is here it is here it's happening on like in front of us right now like go to phoenix
ride in a waymo go to austin ride in a Waymo, go to Austin,
ride in a Tesla robotaxi.
Like there are cars
that are driving themselves
without being touched by a human today.
There are robots in warehouses
for Amazon and Walmart and Nike
that are auto sorting and auto,
like they're performing,
robots are performing
logistics operations today
that normally require
thousands of workers.
And they're autonomously performing them already.
Like, again, this isn't like what might happen.
This is what's already happening, you know.
And over time, as the supply chains build out, the components for those robots will get cheaper.
They'll become better just by virtue of tooling over time.
They'll just be better.
That's how industries work.
More money is spent, more time is spent, and the products get better.
And people wake up in three or four years, and there'll be robots everywhere.
And they'll be doing everything.
Then people are going to be scratching their heads and be like,
it was so obvious.
Why didn't I see it coming?
Why didn't I invest in these companies?
You know, the obvious trade is very often the right trade.
In fact, in my career, I found that it's usually the best one, you know,
and most of the trades that I've taken this year and most of the trades I've
taken for the better part of the last decade have all been obvious trades and
they've all worked out very well.
So you don't need to be a contrarian
bug to make it in the markets you sometimes you see things happening and you know they're going
to happen and you feel like you should put your money there and a lot of people shrug off that
instinct because they're like oh it's too obvious though like drones too obvious you know aerospace
and defense too obvious nuclear too obvious shipbuilding too obvious like you know, aerospace and defense, too obvious, nuclear, too obvious, shipbuilding,
too obvious. Like, you know, it can't be that simple, right? It can't be that simple to where
a presidential administration tells you they want to do something and you invest in the things they
want to do and you make money. It really can't be that easy, can it? Yeah, it can. It is actually
that easy. And more often than not, people talk themselves out of generational thematics, generational thematics, like to a multi-decade performers, because they're like, everyone knows about it.
Like, there's no way I can make money investing in it because everyone knows about it.
Like, that's not how markets work at all.
Everyone doesn't buy on the same day.
Everyone doesn't buy on the same day.
You know, when that great thing happens for that company you love, do you think everyone
on the world that wants to own that company is buying on that day?
No, markets are not efficient from that standpoint.
In fact, what drives inefficiency in markets is the level of participation.
That's precisely what drives the inefficiency is the fact that there's so many millions
of parties with different decision making principles that are all looking at the same baskets of stocks.
And they all think different things when these things happen.
Some of them think that's a buying opportunity.
Some of them think, I need to sell.
And that's what makes a market.
And your ability to spot the cracks in logic along the way are where you make money.
That's what alpha is, is you spotting the misperceptions in the price action and the
misperceptions by the market and the more consistently you can spot those the better
you'll be but very often very often it's as simple as saying clearly we're going to build a lot more
drones i should invest in drones clearly we're going to deploy a lot more satellites i should
invest in satellites like clearly robotics are going to be a huge thing.
I should invest in companies with exposure to robotics.
Like does not take a genius to figure any of those things out.
It doesn't take an industry expert to figure any of those things out.
And what happens quickly is that people look back on these things and say, whoa, the industry is here.
It's already happening.
Like, how did I miss this?
And in hindsight, they didn't miss it at all.
They're talking about it with their friends.
They're posting about it on Twitter.
Like, ask how many people in the internet era,
in the wake of companies like Apple and Amazon
and these multi-decade
mega cap stocks, how many people were talking about these names all the time decades ago?
How many people bought and held the stocks? Not very many. If you ask somebody from 20 years ago,
like, what'd you think about Amazon? A lot of them probably say, yeah, dude, it was really
interesting. Like as soon as they pivoted from books to broader e-commerce it became a really
interesting story okay did you buy the stock though no the vast majority of them did not
right how many people do you know who have owned amazon for 25 years that probably not many
you know or however long it's been public i don't know when it went public but you know
that that's the thing is that the obvious trade is neglected often because people
see it happening in front of them they talk to their friends about it they know they literally
see it when i say see it i don't mean like oh it's obvious i mean like you see it with your own eyes
like i see av ride robots when i'm walking leo i talk about this all the time like in may i was
talking about this with nebius when i bought the stock and it was 23 i was like hey guys i saw ab
ride robot on the street today made me feel good about my nebius when I bought the stock and it was 23. I was like, hey guys, I saw AB ride robot on the street today.
Made me feel good about my Nebius investment.
Boom, stock is five times higher in three months.
Like sometimes it's literally what you're seeing happening.
And maybe it's not reflected in the price action right away.
Maybe it's not reflected in the fundamentals right away. In fact, very often it's not reflected in the fundamentals for months or years
before these themes start.
And the people who are perceptive see it happening far before
it ever shows up in a quarterly report.
And they position themselves for it
and you make ridiculous amounts of money
because of it.
The market will reward you very handsomely
for being well-researched
and for understanding these things
in advance of them happening.
And, you know,
don't be a contrarian
for the sake of being contrarian most contrarians are
trend fighters and trend fighters are idiots you should put that on a sticky note some contrarians
are smart contrarians but they're very few and far between most of them see a big trend and they
think trend is parabolic there's no way it can continue for longer. I'm going to short it. That's most contrarians.
There are other contrarians who do really, really well research contrarian takes on parabolic stocks that shouldn't be up a lot. Those are the good ones. And those are few and
far between. There aren't many of them on Twitter. Most of the contrarians on Twitter are just trend
fighters and trend fighting behavior is silly. It's low IQ behavior. Never do it. It's not a way to make money.
No one's ever consistently made money fighting trends.
No one in the history of the market ever has done that.
So don't think you can do it.
You're not going to be the next guy to do it.
Trend is your friend.
Trends pay you.
Ride the trends till they are not your friend anymore,
and then you can start making hard decisions
about your portfolio and about the stuff you own.
But, I mean, pull up the S&p 500 monthly chart and the trend is obvious it's very obvious it's been obvious for
quite a long time anyway that's enough randy do you see the nine ema exact low of day on qqq
basically the exact low of day on spy today and and same was the story
with a lot of individual stocks that defended those those levels you know and price is telling
you what needs to tell you you know you go back on spy look at the 50 month on spy if you'd use
the 50 month as like a stop for your participation in the market,
you could have been long.
This is not a joke.
Okay.
The 50 month moving average on the S&P 500 has held for the last decade straight.
The last decade.
In other words, you could have bought SPY 10 years ago, SPY, at $150.
SPY, which is now $666 as of today's close. You could have bought it 10 years ago for $150 and
said, I'm only going to get out of the market if the 50-month breaks, because it's a clear
denominator of uptrends in the market, the 50-month moving average. And look if the 50-month breaks because it's a clear denominator of uptrends in the market, the 50-month
moving average. And look at the 50-month
moving average. It has not broken once
in 10 fucking
years. 10 years
through COVID, through
tariff selloff, through everything you want to imagine
that's happened in 10 years, the SB500
has held the 50-month moving average.
Think about that.
You know? Think about it. You ever looked at the 200-month moving average think about that you know you ever looked at the 200 month
just for fun no what is that held for like fucking 50 years so 90 or i mean 2000 2008 dip below it
for one two three four five six seven eight nine months. You have to go to SPX.
You can't look at SPY.
Oh, yeah, true.
2008 was 10 months it spent under it.
Then it reclaimed it and held above it for the rest of the 10, 11,
and hasn't even got close to it since.
The only other time that it dipped below the 200 that i found before that was like back in the late
70s that's actually insane to think about if you bought on the 200 month moving average reclaim in
2010 and you set that as your trailing stop yeah you're up 500 and something percent
on the s&p 500 yeah yeah on the broad market yeah exactly so
don't be a panic and don't be a panic you should be a panic and if we forfeit the 50 month moving
average i'll put it that way which is very unlikely to happen i mean if that happens something bad is happening really bad you know i mean even covid
look at covid look at the monthly candles on covid like basically bottomed at the 50 month
yeah that's what i was looking at covid and that was a you know a sharp decline which was met with
a rebound even the slow decline in 2022, that's exactly what it
wicked into and just immediately got bought up.
That's interesting.
Tariff fell off, went $5 away,
or not $5 away, $10 away.
Tariff fell off.
Yeah, basically.
Down to $479.
2022.
Look at 2022's low, $334.
That's what I was saying.
That 2022 bear market market just brutal year and
that's as far as it went actually yep could and it bellowed with support there too like a lot of
bidding there and you just held it consolidated rip back to the 450s and here we are the 670s now
so i mean you know you don't need to be geniuses do any of this stuff guys you turn your moving averages
on and pull the chart up like we're not looking at anything crazy i don't have any indicators on
my charge i don't have anything on here you know you're just looking at the market in a really raw
way in in form of price and tells you everything you need to know and that's why we talk about all the time like you
it can be as simple as the a 9 and 21 ema i just if you just look at spx spy it's exactly where we
came down to last thursday the 21 ema on on spx spy i think wicked like right into it basically
same thing but if you look at i look look at SPX more than SPY nowadays
because it's adjusted for the dividends or whatever.
But SPX, right on the 21 EMA,
marked the low last Thursday,
reclaimed the 9 within two days,
then a day, really.
Then backtested and held it today,
pushed up almost a new all-time high.
You think it can't be that simple,
but it actually kind of is at times.
That and...
Not even at times.
Always.
Touche.
Touche, always.
It's always that simple.
And then beyond that,
when you think about something you say,
conviction,
having conviction in a position, but then also knowing... I mean, because you research into these and it's when you have a strong thesis, you know, it's a hot sector.
You're going to find the bellwether in that sector and you're going to ride it.
And obviously it's performing very well for you.
And I know many other people I've kind of taken pieces of that and added it into how I invest. So it's actually been very well for you. And I know many other people that I've kind of taken pieces of that and added
it into how I invest. So it's actually been very helpful for me.
Yeah. I mean, and, and sometimes in the markets,
like you'll find these moments where everything seems really bad and prices
are down and like, you know, moments like moments like April or moments like
COVID or, you know, and you see
this and it's hard in those moments to think about buying. You don't have to buy in those moments.
I'm not implying that you have to. I actually am not a bottom buyer type of guy. Like I didn't buy
anything in April outside of Nebius. Um, but actually that was in May. So I'm not, I didn't
buy anything in April. Um, so you don't have to buy, buy those moments. But what's important during those moments is that you zoom out, you see how far the
stocks that you own have come and see, you know, a lot of times it's just air being taken
out.
Like, even if you look at meta, like, which was what, 87 bucks, the lowest in 23 is now
700 bucks, right?
It's basically nine X from the lows.
You could have rode
that thing on the recovery all the way up, essentially the nine week EMA. And if you
wanted to avoid getting shaken out in April, you could have used a 21 week EMA, which was where it
bottomed. But you could have rode the 21 week EMA all the way up from basically 150 bucks to 700
bucks without ever getting shaken out of the trade for any reason. And that's the beauty
of not getting shaken out by narrative and letting price shake you out instead. Because if you get
shaken out by narrative, you're going to get shaken out all the time. If a bad story or a bad
catalyst is going to get you out of a stock that you've owned for a long time, you're going to be
in and out all the time. If instead you let price guide you, you will be shaken out far less.
Because in those moments, you could just say, you know what, I'm gonna let price tell me that they're willing to
sell this thing below the 21 month EMA, where the stock is defended for eight months. And if it
doesn't, then I'll know something's really wrong. And in a lot of those moments, you're going to
see that defense happen. You saw it with Meta at 479 in April, you saw with many stocks in April,
at big multi-year levels you saw in april
they're defending defending defending that's a good sign and that means buyers are coming in and
saying you know what this stock has become a bargain it's retraced all the way back to this
major level and i'm gonna buy it now and when you have those bitter stepping in in moments like that
that should encourage you and should say okay yeah the story may seem bad right now, but buyers are stepping in where they need to. And they're defending this name. And I should be
incrementally positive on the name because of that. So yeah, I mean, I could talk about this
stuff all day, but these are lessons you learn in markets over time. After selling stuff too early
or buying stuff too late or whatever it is, you learn these lessons over
time. You start being like, dude, why didn't I zoom out? You know, why, why didn't I ignore the
noise? Why was I so occupied with what I was reading on my Twitter feed instead of what the
price was telling me? Because remember what you're reading on your Twitter feed is just one guy's
opinion or maybe many guys and girls opinions. Right. And it's hard to turn that into data,
right? It's hard to turn that into objective data. It's just a bunch of opinions,
but the market does that for you through price. Okay. So let me reiterate that when you're
reading an opinion of somebody on Twitter or anywhere, Substack, whatever. They could be right.
You know, I share opinions all the time. I'm right sometimes. I'm wrong sometimes.
People are right and wrong. You know, no one's right all the time. But what Price tells you is
the amalgamation of all those opinions exercising themselves through price, right? The guys who think TA
is wizardry, the reason I scoff at those people is because, you know, they're like, oh, it's just
astrology for men. No, it's not. It is a data vehicle. Price is data. What it's telling you
is how the overall net market feels about whatever is
happening in that moment. And when you have levels like these key moving averages get forfeited,
what the market is telling you is that, hey, buyers are no longer willing to step in at that
weighted average price that they were willing to step in for months. That's a bad thing.
If buyers suddenly disappeared in an area where they showed up month after month after month,
that's a bad thing. That's price telling you something. Very often in those moments,
what happens? The stock goes lower and lower and lower and lower. And you'll look at it,
and the rudimentary guy will look at that and say, well, okay, so what? The stock was going down. It went down more. That has nothing to do with
the TA. No, it does, because the price action told you that that was coming. The price action
told you, hey, look, bidders aren't here anymore. I know you've expected them to be here. I know
the price has told you they were going to be here, but they're not here anymore. And now you have to
face the reality of that. And those are the decision-making moments as a manager where you're like, okay,
the stock has paid me well, but the price has changed the story. What the price is telling me
is different from what the price was telling me three months ago. And as a consequence of that,
I should react in some way. Maybe I'm going to trim the position. Maybe I'm going to roll my
contracts out further to provide some cushion for volatility. Maybe I'm going to trim the position. Maybe I'm going to roll my contracts out further to provide some cushion for volatility. Maybe I'm going to take off my short-term options.
Maybe I'm going to put a hedge on the position. Who knows? Maybe I'm going to sell the position
in its entirety. It's going to depend case by case. But those are the moments where you make
decisions when the price is telling you, hey, buddy, something changed here. and in some of those moments, you're going to have
such conviction and you're going to have done your work so well that you're going to say,
you know what? I know price is telling me something here, but the crowd is wrong.
Everyone's wrong. And if you've really done your work, in some cases you can make that call and
say, you know what price is wrong here, but that's going to be rare. Price is rarely wrong. It's not
never wrong. Some people say it's never wrong.
That's also not true, but it's rarely wrong. And the only way you can ever make the call to say,
I'm correct and the price is not, is if you're really well-researched. And I mean, you know
everything about the company, about the industry, the peers, the catalyst. And there are some stocks
I know that well, but I don't know every
name in my portfolio that well. And I talk about this sometimes about the difference between how
I manage my core positions and how I manage my non-core positions. The reason those positions
are managed differently is the information deficit. In the core positions, I know them so well that
even in moments of price caution, where price is telling me to be cautious, there are moments where I'm not cautious because I know the story so well.
And there are other stocks I own that I don't know as well, that when the price is telling me to be cautious, I heed the warning.
Then I get out of the way.
So anyway, I don't know.
I could spend five hours talking about this, but this is these are these are the keys to portfolio management and how you effectively manage stocks with a no bullshit attitude.
Not about like, oh, what is he? What is my favorite Twitter follow thing?
Like, no. Based on what the price is telling you and what the industry and the tailwinds and the catalysts and the fundamentals and all that stuff are telling you as data points, right? As objective data points that you can lean
on. And over time, you'll get better at that. But most of you probably suck at it right now,
if you're new and that's okay. I sucked at it too. I didn't, I had no idea what I was doing for
the first three or four years of me trading. I was just like a lost sheep. So you'll figure it out.
But as I always say, you have to do the work.
Well, I think that's a good spot to end it on.
Appreciate everyone.
We'll see you guys tomorrow.
tomorrow, same time, same place. As always, Whole Space is recorded. So if you miss any
Same time, same place.
As always, Whole Space is recorded.
of the thoughts in any of the however long we've been live at this point,
three and a half hours, something like that, you can go back and listen to any piece of it.
Appreciate everyone. We'll see you guys tomorrow. Thank you.
