Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: June 2, 2025 Duration: 2:02:39Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, experts analyze the growth and partnership strategies of CrowdStrike in the cybersecurity sector, while also exploring Robinhood's innovative betting model that could reshape market dynamics and yield opportunities for investors.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome in. Welcome in. Stocks on Spaces. It is power hour. Market
is green. Pretty much everything green. Not everything,
but most things pretty much moving up higher today. And a slow grind to the upside after a
little bit of a down open. And that's where we're at. We'll see kind of what everyone's thinking,
of course. But a quick market update for you. We've got QQQ up 0.74%, SPY, S&P up just under half a percent at 0.44%.
IWM and Dow Volt just recently went green on the day.
VIX is falling back red.
And that's kind of where we're at.
Big movers that I noticed today, at least.
NVIDIA is up 2%.
Broadcom, who reports Thursday, is up 3%.
Meta up 3.5%, probably the biggest outperformer as far as big mega cap tech goes. net broadcom who reports thursday is up three percent meta up three and a half percent uh
probably the biggest outperformer as far as big mega cap tech goes most other things uh are green
except for google and tesla i see both down exactly the same amount of percentage points 1.6
on tesla and google to the red side uh some other things moving hood is breaking out up three percent today net is up i saw amd arm crowd
who reports crowd strike reporting tomorrow after the close so uh some some very interesting things
going on bitcoin a little bit red today but nothing too much to report over there on that
side of things and uh yeah that's kind of your market update. And let's take a lot deeper dive into
this. News-wise, Evan, anything from you to lead off with before we jump over to our man, Scott?
Yeah. No, what is up, everybody? I am excited for this conversation, excited for the spaces
to be back. It was a choppy first half of the day, turned into a little bit of direction here
as I'm checking my portfolio. It wasn't the most aggressive amount of headlines this weekend. We have some stuff around
tariffs increasing from the U.S. again, the fallout of a reporter calling Trump
out on the taco trade. It seems like everything changed. Although this week,
there was conversations at the White House that Trump and Xi Jinping might end up talking this
week. So maybe it's a short-term thing.
I don't know.
Maybe that's also what the market is going towards.
We'll see.
I'm excited for everyone to go in and talk about it.
There's a couple other news headlines.
Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast is getting pretty high,
signaling that we will not have another quarter of negative GDP in Q2.
A couple analyst reports, which I'm sure Stock Talk will come in and talk about.
And that Amazon one this morning one from Bank of America.
I saw a lot of people talking about it.
And yeah, I'm looking forward to this conversation.
Not too much for me here at the start.
You should make sure you're following the speakers.
And I'm looking forward to hearing what they have to say.
Absolutely. Appreciate that.
What's up, Scott?
Appreciate that, Evan. Yeah, Scott.
Welcome in. Always great to have you on these Mondays. Scott, what's on your mind today? How have's up, Scott? Appreciate that, Evan. Yeah, Scott. Hey, what's up, guys? Always great to have you on these Mondays.
Scott, what's on your mind today?
How have you been, sir?
We missed you last week with the holiday.
It was weird not having you on.
I know.
I'm sorry.
When the market's closed, I'm not around.
I try and do a bunch of things to balance the life out.
We weren't either, to be fair.
I'm sure.
I wasn't sure.
I don't check on everything. I'm a creature of habit,
but when the markets close, I try and spend as much time with the family and get a little
fresh air, a little fitness, all the things that we do to keep ourselves sane and moving forward.
But I will say, today coming in, I was pretty light. I'm not sure exactly after two weeks of
sideways consolidation, whether or not there'd be enough buying pressure to keep the market intact up here and maybe make another push.
So at least today develops slowly so you kind of see what's going on, because as traders, you want to see what's going on.
And we had some reasons to go down, right, as far as the macro narrative.
You know, Trump tried to flex the muscles and talk about 2x on the tariffs and then a few other things as far as on the macro.
But we opened lower and new flows from June, I guess, because you always have a new month and sometimes you get new flows.
Those lazy managers who just put money to work absorb the weakness.
managers who just put money to work, absorbed the weakness. We talked about the range where
583 was Friday's low, 585 in the spies. And we held that. And there was just a lack of sellers.
And little by little, some things started to lead other things. You had NVIDIA finally
show some relative strength in the morning after being sold into strength on Thursday,
which sometimes happens with NVIDIA. They like to sell the event, being sold into strength on Thursday, which sometimes happens
with NVIDIA. They like to sell the event, get rid of the fast money, and then the real money starts
to buy. I did buy some NVIDIA this morning, pre-market, and I'm going to try and stay with
that as a bit of a swing for the week. Also, I guess the headline that Trump and T are going to
talk helped a little bit. And then slowly but surely, some things said, hey, look, risk on, Meta.
Meta's been one of the names that has been consolidating.
So you want to look for things that could prove that you can go higher.
And Meta took out 654, which was last Thursday's high.
And then it took out 662, which was the May 14th high to show some power.
So if you happen to be short Amazon and some of
the other ones like, oh, wow, you know, if Medi could do this, I better at least cover and then
let's look around to see what could be next. So little by little, things just started to get
stronger. I don't know if we're going to run away. But, you know, at a strong May, I think the S&P is
now almost unchanged, a little lower for the year.
Kind of absorbed a lot of banter over four or five months. The economy kind of held up.
Rates peaked last week and came off that a little bit.
Some sectors that a lot of the guys on here have been pointing out are doing well.
So if you've been listening to Spaces and you have XBI working a lot of those names um that everybody talked about
a few weeks ago working seems like the iwm is at a big time inflection point again it feels like
it's always at an inflection point and you're getting you know getting things to do so as a
trader what do you want to do you want to look for things to do um may is behind you it's a new month
so everyone gets to start fresh if the if they um actively trade for
a living and as of right now uh the bears still don't have any power the sequence from april is
still intact and every area has to be proven that it could hold before you put your hard-earned
money there and as of today you know the spies proved it could hold the 585 ish area now the
next thing is the spies in the market has to prove
he can get above 593 and hold it and then if he gets above 595 and holds it later this week
you know you're gonna have a little bit of a chase you're gonna have uh some guys that are off sides
have to buy and you and you have some two-week consolidations that might go to the upside so
if you're if you're just kind of short in the brain, you better take a little bit of a
step back. And if you didn't have a lot of risk on, I didn't have a ton of risk on coming in,
I added some today. Now I'll see if the market trades in a methodical way where I could buy
dips and trade through areas and try and put it together a good week. But as of right now,
I think I came in pretty neutral and the market's showing me it's better to be neutral to positive than neutral to negative.
That's my quick two cents. I think some of your other guys should talk because they've been doing
great, especially the bio-focus with the cancer conference coming up and the two takeovers and
the XBI knocked on the door of 81,
I think it's probably more important to hear what he has to say versus what I
have to say about mega cap tech semis. And, you know,
those names because everybody knows about those.
Where is, um, I was, where is logical still is lost.
He's still traveling. Where's logical. Oh, where is. I don't know if Logical is still. Is Logical. Is Logical. Is Logical.
Is Logical.
Where is Logical.
Oh, Logical is traveling.
Well, I got to give him some props.
Like, you know, granted, you know, you say the same thing over six to eight months.
Maybe it starts to work.
Well, now it's working.
So if you're a market timer.
I'm only kidding.
You know, it seems like the XBI is showing some relative strength.
And some of those names are showing some life.
You know, I would think if, you if – remember we talked about DoorDash
over the last few weeks?
I think that DoorDash is knocking on the door of clearing 215
to be at an all-time high.
I think off the bean path that is good.
I think Palatir is a special name holding well like a hood.
So you have some leaders leading, and you have some names
in these two-week bases that
are are perking up that can give you another entry after a move that we've seen a week or two ago
yeah for sure scott appreciate you kicking us off there um the only follow-up question i have real
fast is when it comes to all this news, I mean, there's obviously buyers underneath this market, right?
There's obviously dip buyers are sitting there, and they got really aggressive, saw it 200-day, and started buying it back up.
And then when it comes to the tariff side of things, do you have any updated read on this?
Has it got exhausted at this point, or are people just exhausted of
hearing about it, and they're just going to wait at this point before they react to anything else?
I personally thought last week when the tariff news came out and they talked about now they
can't even put tariffs out, I thought that the market would not act well towards it,
because it's been the way we've been trading. That's the narrative for the past four months.
Every time Trump puts tariffs on, we go down. Every time he eases it, we go up. And we were making higher lows and higher highs. So I kind of felt a little lost last week with the narrative and got a little bearish in my head. But then all of a sudden, we held in there Thursday, Friday-ish. And I was like, you know what? Let me just take a step back. Maybe we're numb to tariffs. Maybe corporate America is doing just fine. Maybe we'll play off
of rates, which the TLT is down $1.40. The market doesn't seem to care today. So I'm trying to
rework my brain to not have too many opinions and look more at the price action. That's why
instead of listening for the tariffs, but you did get a headline about China and
the US coming to terms this week.
So who would want to be short there?
And then you had levels holding the spies in the queues.
And then you had Meta prove that stops can be bought higher and go higher.
Then you have names like Amazon getting better.
Then Nvidia, no more pressure.
So you put a lot of these things together with some flows going into the bios, small caps not falling apart.
So all that told me a little bit more to be a little bit more optimistic this week versus pessimistic.
And yes, we can get tweet bombs, and yes, things can happen.
But ultimately, like you said, there have been buyers underneath.
Until we get below and stay below a level and the sellers prove that they have actually power to get a new direction, you got to stick with what's
working. With one foot in the door, one foot out the door, maybe a little bit lower gross net,
but there's definitely things to continue to back up and go with.
Yeah, I appreciate that, Scott. Scottott we spoke of the devil a little bit logical
joined us up here i know you mentioned his uh his name there a little bit with the bio stuff
if you had a comment for him or anything to pick his brain on yeah i think he must be you know i
don't know where he's traveling but he's probably having some swing trades that he's been positioning
in in the past month working out pretty well for him. Technically, it feels like it's at another crossroads.
It'd be interesting to see if it could finally really get above this, like,
you know, 81, 82 area.
And I'm sure if it does, the next spot, technically, I see 84.
And if that happens in the XBI, I'm sure there are a lot of names
that are rewarding guys that do the extra homework
and are more specific versus just going with the ETFs.
Yeah. Where are you at? I'm in Paris, man. It's 9 PM. Crazy. It's light still out here. So it's beautiful. Fantastic trip so far. You drinking some wine? I'm drinking everything under the sun,
brother. It's a great time out here. So sorry if I haven't been on
these spaces the last couple of weeks, but it's been a great trip. Very exhausted. But yeah,
I was down to hop in and say a few things before I drop out. Yeah, XBI, obviously, really nice day
today. 2.5% on the day. Definitely a leading sector. Look, this is the thing with this index,
though, is too much volatility.
So XBI, it's tough because, you know, some days you're going to be down when the market's up and
up when the market's down. But, you know, I look at that as like a welcome diversification
because that's, you know, when you have so much exposure across different industries,
something's working well, something else isn't. So on a day like today, my portfolio is definitely
outperforming the broad market.
But there's going to be days where XBI is kind of just doing nothing or kind of having
an eh day and other things are ripping.
So you got to just take the lumps as they come.
But I think that the way that I view a lot of my positioning is based on value and undervalued
fundamentals. And ultimately, I think that this
sector has seen nonstop pessimism. And look, we're still more than 50% below the lows of February 2021.
This index has been reconstructed since. So you can't really use apples to apples. That said,
we're still well off the highs from just last year. And and since we've had you know issues with rfk fda commissioner
ousted uh new bid a uh prasad who is uh appointed ciber director some people were scared about this
but you know the new fda commissioner comes in he's ha he he does an interview it's not going
to be as bad as expected we're going to improve more, not less. Vinay Prasad comes out and talks so much. He talks up rare disease treatments and
how we need to get this out to the public. So a lot of these things that the market was pricing in,
like very bad outcomes, they came out and said, you know what? No, it's not going to be as bad
as we thought. You know, we get MFN, most favored nation, really bad news in the sector.
What happens? You know, stocks ended up green on that day. the sector what happens uh you know stocks ended up
green on that day so it's just you know when you start getting so much bad news and so much is
priced in and the and it's just being very resilient you know the bottom is definitely in
this this index uh put in that low at the 66 level recently uh and that's a low going back
10 years we've tested it multiple times and every single time it's been very good support.
Now, I'm not necessarily long the XBI, though, you know, the index does look pretty good.
It's been kind of like in this really interesting technical pattern could definitely break to the upside.
And, you know, just today, I think we had one very large deal with BioNTech and Bristol Myers, about a $10 billion deal.
And then you had a big acquisition, $9 billion acquisition in the sector.
So look, you just need some more of this activity to get going.
And what I've been talking about for a long time is that you don't need public market
participants to buy these companies or to push up the share prices.
I think that the reinvestment back into the sector at these cheap and fair
valuations, I would say very, very fair valuations is enough to get these
stock prices going.
So you could just have people basically, you know, bid up the sector from within,
which is what I think a tailwind that is being underappreciated right now.
So, yeah, I mean, bios look really good today. RGNX, a name that I've been talking about.
So I have two very high value, I would say, clinical bios. One of them is Regenexx Bio RGNX
up 14% today. Honestly, I'm not even really seeing the news. It's just kind of like they
scheduled a call.
That's the only thing that I see to talk about some of their data upcoming.
But you know, this is a stock that's trading still below cash on the balance sheet.
They have three phase three trials.
I've been talking about it for a while.
You know, a lot of these stocks are very volatile, so they can be up to one day down the next
day.
But I think the ultimate puck is going to be a lot higher for a lot of these names.
Of course, with clinical bios, you want to stay reasonably sized. I usually keep these between 2% and 3% because the upsides
can be 5X, the downsides can be minus 50%, right? But a 6 to 1 risk reward ratio, that's kind of
how I think about these things. So I'd rather come up with a basket of these things and get
that blended return, which looks pretty good. And then the commercial bios, you can kind of size up
a little higher. And I'll tell you, those commercial bios are trading very cheap. So yeah, Regenexx Bio and
Unicure. Unicure come out with more, you know, they provided a regulatory update today. I can't
believe this thing is basically, it faded the move today. I mean, it just makes no sense to me.
But I do think that, you know, these guys are, it feels like, you know, when they release their
next data point in the next month or two, Q-U-, QURE, Unicure, on Huntington's disease, I think they have like a three-year data readout.
You know, we're getting really close to, I mean, heading towards that approval.
And if it does, the market opportunity is much larger than today's market cap of $800 million.
So I think there's a lot of these companies that are kind of getting towards that end of the clinical trial phases.
And so I'm focusing there on the clinical side.
And yeah, like I said, the commercial bio is just, you know, they're executing.
The launches are going well.
You know, these are companies that have 90% gross margins.
You're not going to find that in any other sector.
So, yeah, this is a very beat up sector.
I have probably 50, 60% allocation to this sector.
You know, it'll be I think it's going to be a matter of time because at some point, the value is too good to ignore.
And as these companies continue to progress, their valuations continue to compress.
And so there will be an incremental buyer every single day this day forward is my view.
Other than that, I actually, I'm still buying some tech and I'm still buying some, I mostly focus on the small caps. I think the small caps are, I saw a stat today that said they're extremely under allocated,
like lower than 2022 levels, lower than October 2023 levels where small caps bottomed after the
bear market. So I think that positioning is offside in small caps. You know, again, we've
talked about IWM being a crap index. I don't necessarily think that I'm not being bullish IWM, but being bullish, you know,
very strong small caps that are basically being their babies thrown out with the bathwater
in the sector.
You know, they're trading at really good valuations.
They're actually growing.
They're improving their margins.
Those are the names that you want to focus on.
And I think there's quite a few of those riding major tailwinds.
And with starting market caps of really small size
in a very large industry, you could have very high potential upside. You know, I've talked about
names like Magnite, Pubmatic. Those remain my top ideas still from here on. I've talked about,
you know, this is another one that's kind of in the bio space, but I look at it as a small cap too.
Fulgen Genetics, FLGT. This thing is 630 mil market cap with over $800 million of cash, $300 million
of core revenues growing double digits. I mean, there's just so much value in the small cap space,
the bio space, and the small cap bio space. So look, do the technicals look great? In some cases,
not great. I think some of them are shaping up, but I'm a fundamental investor first and a technical
trader as like a kind of a second. So I look at fundamentals as strategy and technicals as tactics. Without
strategy, you can never have tactics. So that I focus on, that's kind of my style. But yeah,
and you know, aside from that, also, I think that, you know, Bitcoin and Coinbase are kind of at an
interesting spot here. Crypto looks pretty decent with this kind of low volume pullback.
You know, I think you can kind of make a trade there on Bitcoin,
looking at this moving average that it's sitting on
as you're kind of lining the sand.
You know, if it's able to bounce here, looks good.
And if it breaks below, that's where you cut
and take your loss, small loss.
And, you know, I'm thinking of this,
and I re-entered those trades today
through vehicles
like BTCL, which is 2X long Bitcoin and CONL, which is 2X long Coinbase. My thought there is,
you know, we had the short report on Tempest AI the other day and it was sitting right at the 50
day and the 200 day. And, you know, I saw the market kind of fading the other day. And so I
cut out additional exposure and extra trades. And so I cut out the Tempest AI, which really hurts today when you're seeing a 17% day.
I even had some TEMT, which is a 2X long Tempest.
And that thing was up 30% plus today.
So yeah, I got to just take more swings at these points where, you know, you're sitting
at a moving average.
It's a perfect pullback on a technical level.
You kind of use that as a line in the sand.
You know, if it closes below, that's just your, you know, you just take your small loss and move on. It's a perfect pullback on a technical level. You kind of use that as a line in the sand.
If it closes below, you just take your small loss and move on.
Even if it's an undercut and rally, you can't regret it.
You just have to stick to your rules.
But other than that, you take a swing right here above those moving averages and see what happens.
So that's what I'm doing with Bitcoin and Coinbase right now or through those lever products.
Logical.
Let me just give a quick, quick little map first starting with xbi so you go to xbi right now it's above um it's actually above the 8 and 21 day
in the 50 day the next thing is 100 days so technically if you want to define your risk
belong the xbi verse 78 and looks like it could get to 84 ish pretty fast so that's the xbi that
if you want to look at names i'm not going to go over them right now. The IWM that he just spoke about too,
it's very tight. You put a low in today in the IWM around 20267. If you want that to be a risk
for the week, you could be long the IWM versus that. And if it happens, it hasn't been above
the 200-day withholding above it literally since February 21st.
So if the IWM that's so undervalued is going to get some traction,
it needs to get above and stay above.
I would say 208, that'd be the spot where all of a sudden,
if it gets through that with some authority,
that could tell you that, hey, extra money is flowing there.
And as far as Bitcoin, I agree.
I sold somewhere around 110, 111, went to 112.
Now it's pulled back and it's getting near the 50-day where if you think Bitcoin is going
to 125 or 140, this is probably a spot to start buying.
And you also have the Sunday night low for Bitcoin and the Sunday night low for Bitcoin
or maybe it was Friday was 103-ish.
So from 112 to 103-ish, it's not bad.
So if you want to frame the trades on top of the fundamentals,
that's what you do.
You have your fundamental thesis,
and then usually the technicals give you the roadmap.
That's the roadmap for all three of those things.
Yeah, I appreciate that.
Now, logically, you should go.
It's 9 o'clock at night.
Go have some fun in Paris.
Go to a club.
You go to clubs. You go to a club. Like, what kind of club?
You go to clubs.
You go to, you know, live music.
What do you do?
Do you go to a Monday night club even in Paris?
You do anything you want.
Maybe.
I mean, I will say the city was a little bit more dead than I thought last night on a Sunday.
But, look, there's always something going on.
It's because they all went crazy Saturday on the Champions League win.
they all went crazy Saturday.
Yeah.
Champions League win.
Yeah, I heard literally.
I heard.
Who did you go with?
I'm with a big group here.
So with my wife and family and all that.
So it's a good,
it's a good group.
Yeah.
But yeah.
Yeah.
A couple of days we flew in just yesterday morning.
Unfortunately,
we missed the craziness on Saturday night,
which was a dude.
I heard like people died.
There was like 190 injured.
Like it was,
must've been insane. So we just missed that probably for the best though. But yeah, I'm going died. There was like 190 injured. It must have been insane.
So we just missed that.
Probably for the best, though.
But yeah, I'm going to go enjoy myself.
And you guys take care, and I'll chat with you guys all soon.
Thanks for checking in.
All right, who else do you want to call?
You want to call on Stock Sniper?
Is he around?
We got the wall.
We got a hand up from Sam. I wonder if he has thoughts on that. I wouldn't say the AI platform, the Palantir of healthcare, but they do aggregate a lot of data when it comes to patients and hospitals.
I basically create a database for all of them,
which you can run careers against and they have licensing models and so on.
I did a little bit of digging on the company and I also looked at the short
report that was released last week,
which is the reason why I pulled back quite a good amount.
I think it was like about a 20% drop from about 68 level all the way
down to 52, 53. And like you guys were saying, it was hitting those moving averages. Took a pretty
good opportunity. I've traded this before when Nancy Pelosi announced that, well, she didn't
personally announce it, but those forms came out disclosing that she had call options on
Tem. So I'm not sure, maybe she might've gotten out of it because it did go on a bit of a run after that. Uh, but, uh, I'm back in. And again, I got back in tempest AI around
$53, uh, more in it from a fundamental perspective than anything right now. Uh, I have a little bit
of a trade position on, but I do plan on holding the core position on for quite some time. So that
was a pretty interesting one. Seeing the rally today, you know, it isn't like company fundamental changing news,
but when you get hit hard with pretty bad sentiment last week,
you just need a decent catalyst to bring you back to the upside.
So right around this year's highs on Tempest AI,
actually I think this year's highs have been higher,
but the recent swing highs here.
No, the highs are way higher.
The highs are 92.
The recent high from May 14th was 72 and now today it just took back okay it just took
back all the moving averages so it definitely looks like uh it rebuilt a bit so it yeah i agree
it looks good kind of like the same thing that happened with apple oven where they went after
like exactly sometimes took some time to rebuild and the ones who rebuilds if none of the accusations, you know, it's usually there's even better movement because there's a lot of shorts that are caught there versus the real story, which is why people are in it.
But technically today is definitely, you know, a day that's going to people will look back at, you know, Tempest and be like, wow, it's also in a great channel.
Like this channel overall from, you know, back from June 2024 all the way to here,
it's been under consolidation literally for an entire year besides the trading ranges.
So at some point, it seems like there's a lot of funds putting this away.
And it should, you know, see higher prices if all the fundamentals come true,
which I don't see why it wouldn't.
Yeah, I mean, even you mentioned apple oven before uh that that came up from a
short uh that short report came out from a much more reputable firm muddy waters capital um that
yeah that brought the stock down basically cutting i think the all-time high for that one was like
around 500 bucks and then dropped all the way down to 100 most of that was because of the pullback we
had in the market but it was already down pretty significantly before the market started to pullback significantly.
And I bought that dip too, more from a fundamental perspective and still holding it.
And yeah, I mean, as far as that short report goes, you know, they had a recent earnings after that, which kind of showed that the numbers were not necessarily fake.
They expanded margins and so on.
You know, that story needs to play out. The accusations were that they're basically breaking a lot of policies in terms of collecting customer data by creating a profile burning cash and so on. They're probably going to raise more capital. Much more risky as well, but very early in the game, of course, when it comes to AI tailwind.
So that was actually a pretty interesting one to buy.
And I don't know where it's going to go from here, in my opinion.
You guys are definitely much more expert at that.
But I think coming from pretty bad sentiment,
not surprised to see a pretty heavy bounce over here.
What do you know?
Apple 11 just broke 400 again.
There you go.
As I look at the chart of Apple 11 real quick,
you know, ever since, you know, that earnings gap,
you know, some guys, the strategy I use is you want to be long
versus a pro earnings gap, which was 328.
And it's been basically above the 8 in 21 days,
showing strength on every dip.
So now it seems like this week, if you can get above 402.90,
you know, then all of a sudden, you know,
there's definitely some
room back towards maybe 449 or something like that so pretty impressive it's you know it's
definitely been working higher and and listen just by the way when those short reports hit and
and things do you know get hit like sometimes it's unfortunate you have to get out of the way
because you know someone who started buying just the apple oven too soon you know if they're on
margin or they're not doing it right or if they get over their skis, you get stopped out way before the technicals tell you it's a huge opportunity. But basically what you want to do is let a little price discovery happen and let the
market tell you that, hey, these guys really don't know what they're talking about.
And it's an opportunity because I've seen guys who say that and then something does
happen and market just becomes out of play.
And all they're doing is trying to buy a dip on something they thought they loved that
had a short report and it never comes back.
So it's, you know, it is an opportunity, but you want to make sure the, you know, the technical is kind of rebuild and then supports the fundamental thesis
for another move. If, especially if you, if you get paid for a living, you know, monthly and
quarterly versus a lot of time. I agree. I agree. I mean, when it comes to certain short reports,
they are in fact true. I mean, the company, Spruce Capital Management, or Spruce Point Capital, the company that released a show report for Tempest AI,
they were right on the mark with other companies that they also released show reports for, but that was also during 2021 when everything was elevated.
So I wouldn't say that it wasn't true, perhaps, but also, you know, the timing was pretty ample.
The market was running hot during that
time and everything hit the perfect time. And they also released a short report on hims and hers
right before we had the pullback in 2023 in July and hims and hers or hims pulled back about 50%
and hit their target as well. Like that, that's like another situation where it kind of went into
play, but you look at hims, they targeted five to six dollars in HIMSS with their short report. And then look at HIMSS today, it did it 10 times beyond
that. So like you're saying, of course, certainly when the market was very elevated on that,
ran pretty high, the sentiment was getting worse with the market. It's not really something that
I would just quickly jump into with HIMSS. But today's market, I mean, this market is just
ruthless right now. i could have been
wrong with uh tempest and uh you know as with anything when it comes to a trade you have a
stop loss it breaks it then you know just wipe your hands clean and get out and uh that's just
the risk that we all take in the market right you play the probabilities and even from a fundamental
perspective like stock talk was saying it all really just one big trade and I was thinking about that after he mentioned that for a little bit.
And he's like, he's right.
Yeah, this is all literally just one big trade, no matter what term that you are investing in and so on.
You know, whether that's 10 years, 10 days, 100 years and so on.
So, you know, we all have a breaking point, whether that's an absolute stop loss on the chart or whether that's a fundamental stop
loss where something actually dramatically changes in the business. Right. And usually you don't know
about that until that's too late. But sometimes someone always knows and that's when you start
seeing lower highs and lower lows and then finally the news comes out and then it gaps down and
reverses higher. You're like, wait, I thought that was bad news. Well, they knew that two years ago.
But yeah, definitely, 1,000%.
And again, it's your time frame.
It's your commitment.
It's what are you doing to figure out what you can handle.
That's why on the weekends, I like to put those seven accounts up, which is at 52.
I've been doing this a long time.
So I had a meeting before with a guy who was 34 years
old, who was telling me he's in all cash. I'm like, wait, are you in all cash in your 401k?
He's like, no, no, no. I put that every month. I'm like, good. Cause that thing, you're 34 years
old. You should never be in all cash. You put in every month. You don't care. I'm like, so what
it is? He's like, oh, it's my trading account. I'm like, okay. You know, if you're in cash after a
big move and you're trying to figure it out, that's fine. Like, what about your swing account?
He's like, well, my swing account, you know, has a few things after a big move and you're trying to figure out that's fine like what about your swing account he's like well my swing account you know has a few things in that
haven't violated my rules i'm like okay so if they haven't violated your setup then you have a reason
to be in it so you know and then what mike you just had a kid you know uh his name is jack i go
did you start a 529 he's like just started i'm like that's awesome you know he's only six months
old i'm like you're gonna not have to worry about someone bailing you out of, you know, college payments.
You'll actually save enough money through the market. So you have a 401k, which is great.
You have a 529 for your kid. You have a swing account. You have a day trading account for
over emotion. I'm like, now you got to get a blood in the street account, you know, for when,
you know, markets in turmoil starts and we're down 20% and you could put some extra money to work.
So again, it's all about what you can handle. And then if you trade for a living, But when markets in turmoil starts and we're down 20% and you could put some extra money to work.
So again, it's all about what you can handle.
And then if you trade for a living, May just ended.
Hopefully, everyone had a great month.
If you did so, now you've got to do it all over again so you can get paid in June.
So knowing your time frame and knowing what you can handle because you could be right a little early but wrong. And then when finally you should have been right, you're wrong because you couldn't handle it.
And that's just part of the game of trading.
Yeah, that's one thing that I learned a lot from you guys and the best investors and traders out there is that regardless, even if you're a seasoned trader, and I'm not going to speak for all traders out there, but a lot of you guys, you have your long-term accounts that you kind of lean on, right?
Like it's just, you know, like a 401k is whatever it is. Like for me, it's just, I could
not be someone to liquidate my 401k. I feel like that's probably going to be the worst decision.
I'm not planning to retire for quite some time, if anything. And my kids were born,
I opened up a 529 as soon as I could and just started throwing some money there every single
month, no matter what, or every two weeks, no matter what. And just already looking at those accounts the other week,
you know, it's just, obviously, we're not going to see the same amount of growth that we saw in
the markets in 2022 for the following two years after that. But at the same time, it's like,
well, think about how many of those periods are actually going to go through and then zoom out.
You know, it seems like I hope they utilize it and they go to some sort of school or use it towards some education but the good part about
529 is that you could always just transfer that to someone else if they don't use it all so there's
that benefit too how old are you how old are your kids i got three and six my son when i started his
timing could not be any better well listen, listen, you're three and six.
Sometimes you have to think a little bit about where the technicals are.
Like I'm 52, so I don't care.
If I was 72 and you're worried about retirement, that's a different thing.
If you have a junior in high school that you've saved up a certain amount
and it's been a huge move and you want to rebalance it, that's different.
But a three and six, you should never even have to look.
You should just keep every single month.
And if it so happens in the next few years, we get another 20% drawdown or more, then
you put some extra in to create the alpha to take advantage of the prices.
But ultimately, 401k is just for monthly flows and not even in stocks, just in funds.
529 puts it in funds in a pie chart.
And then trading for a living
is finding the patterns, using your risk tolerance
and netting money
and figuring out how to manage it.
So that's good.
You're doing great.
How old are you, by the way?
Turning 38 in a couple
weeks, but the gray hair i that's getting there
now 38 is a great year you know it's good you're still in the building you should be setting the
table they say uh you know the seasons of life right zero to 19 everything comes to you you know
from 19 to 40 you use everything you learned and you try and, you know, plant the seeds and get your business, you know, in there and working.
And then from 40 to 60 is when your business should pay you as much as
possible because you use from 20 to 40. And then after 60,
maybe you're still in that phase. And then after that, you know,
you're coaching and you're teaching and you're finding fulfillment.
So hopefully you've set the table and you know,
you're happy with getting up every day in the morning.
Cause that's very important.
Options.
Mike.
I saw you try.
Yeah.
I saw monitor.
I was going to monitor.
He's.
And then we'll go to my options.
My hand too.
I was not, I felt like you were fighting there for a little.
I may have had a pocket.
Yeah.
Options.
Mike.
What's up?
Yeah.
It could have been that.
Hey guys. How was everybody? Doing well. So. pocket or anything from yeah options mike what's up yeah it could have been that hey guys how is everybody
doing well so you better be illegal so you know for me i think uh the small names when i see big
names in play i just kind of ignore them and that's just kind of my thing i i really was
watching meta today and uh that's been a beautiful winter i'm still sitting in one call i've been
trimming all the way up here and it's just the thing looks like it wants 680 and then breaking out
you know there's there's a lot of different ways to trade i came into today and i'm still long a
couple of june 400 calls and but that didn't stop me from shorting tesla three different times with
puts today into the lows not he took a loss on one of them but bottom line is you know i can still
hold those call those those calls while shorting, making really good money on the puts.
And then just, you know, wait for it to come back up here as, you know, they have their
event next week.
And, you know, as much as Musk's name and his brands have been somewhat damaged, that
XAI $5 billion fundraiser today for 113 billion valuation tells you big money still is really, really willing to buy what he's selling or anything he's involved in.
And that's that's important. Right. That means names like Tesla are going to come running back.
I'm surprised nobody here talked about it, but Boeing here is breaking out to a multi-year high and is trying to trying to break on that upgrade from Bank of America today.
And it's looking really nice as it goes forward.
You know, nice to see A&D coming back up.
I'm still long that stock would have covered call.
Probably going to get called away in a couple of weeks, but I'm okay with that.
And just sitting in snow, still sitting at half my IBIT, still sitting in the spies and the queues.
And I agree.
I mean, this 595 area is huge.
And the one question I kept getting from people today is, you know, is this, are we good to go now?
I'm like, nothing's changed.
To me, we're in a $20 channel on the SPY, 595 down to the 200-day, which is not quite 20 bucks anymore, but now at 577.
And until we break that one or the other, I think you just kind of have to sit there.
And I keep a bullish attitude, not willing to short intraday.
But I'm definitely not looking to short intraday but i'm definitely
not looking to short the overall market um tesla to me just looked like it wanted that 330 area
today and it didn't quite get there it got to uh about 333 before reverse and shot back up
um but you gotta love what you're seeing netflix new all-time highs palantir all-time highs today hood is about what uh 17 bucks away from the all-time high
aim you know you have strength in this market amazon holding up microsoft six bucks from the
all-time highs you know these big mega cap into tech names are leading again and when that happens
markets tend to want to go higher we just need the semis to wake up and they were strong all day i
mean the one thing that gave me conviction that this market was going nowhere today was the semis kept holding uh very
strong above vwap when the market even when the market dipped today that kind of tell me that
we're you know the market's probably going to be okay as we came into those lows
i guess uh yeah time to rails the the high on hood is actually intraday high in the ipo day so
it's all-time closing high it's already past that right but i look at it's all time high
yeah yeah no understood understood there's the catalyst it has coming up on friday i don't know
if it's catalyst for that stock alone but the rebalancing of the S&P 500 happens on Friday after hours,
and there's a lot of retail anticipation it's going to be hood.
But we will see, of course.
Might catch a little bit of hype on the way to that.
it was interesting to mike's point that the sim means kind of our our market leader
they you know they let us up they let us down they're leading us back up and they stayed strong
today yeah well nvidia you know people took a cue from the video when they sold it on earnings and
then they had some downside follow-through on Friday. So today was important.
I bought NVIDIA when it was red, anticipation of it.
And then, you know, it doesn't mean it's out of the woods, but maybe like you have your risk to find 135.40 today's low.
You could try and be long NVIDIA and play reverse that low this week.
And if that's the low of the week, that should help the overall indices too.
You know, and then, like you said, meta proved that something could actually be bought higher because one of the frustrations of the last week or two is you need
to buy them when they look bad and sell them when they look good and i know for me i like to buy high
and sell higher but there wasn't a lot of that in the last week and a half so um it's good to see
a name like meta was able to do it so now maybe some other names could follow along and i will
say it makes sense for semiconductors to to the markets more, like be a little bit more preventative.
Because I think a lot of the businesses that the market is most excited about, semiconductors are the main input, one of the biggest inputs in there.
So like, you know, as stuff moves in the economy, it's going to hit the semiconductors first.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Semi is usually lead tech. It's good when they're, you know, when semis are in
a headwind. And right now they're just kind of in line, proving it could be a little bit of
in line and then a tiny bit of a leadership role. So I wouldn't say that it's blaring leadership.
It's more like in line. So that's why NVIDIA this morning,
if you used it as a leading indicator when the market was weak
and NVIDIA was bid for,
it showed you not to press shorts
and maybe look to see what else is acting well
that you could buy to make money for today.
There's always things like that.
I don't know what this ends up looking like
for like an SMH or something,
but these arguments about NVIDIA's market cap
and is it too much or is it too low, the arguments the arguments of it being too high i don't think are arguments that
it should leave semiconductors it's that these other areas are doing great and it's going to
continue i think the whole pie semiconductors is one that i i really do love because like everything
we do all this tech is has those really underpinning it. Yeah, listen, it's about sentiment a little bit with NVIDIA.
So everyone was talking about going into the print
that NVIDIA had its best two-month move in a long time, right?
It went from like 115, which was a good technical area, to 140s.
But then if you go back to last June, a year ago, it was higher.
So for one year, it had blowout reports, brought the PE down,
proved that it's still best
in breed and the stock is just consolidating. But then you go back five years, you had a massive
move that's just been consolidating this year. So I do think at some point, it keeps on its
trajectory. There's going to be a nice trade here and you'll be able to use NVIDIA as a leader once
again versus just a range trade. And as for now, we know that Friday's low is a little bit below today's low, and that's
what you'll use to measure this week's risk for tech and semis.
But overall, everyone's like, oh, the action activity is horrible.
It's not true.
It's just consolidating a massive move.
And at some point, it probably gets the traction it needs to take out that 150 152 area just you know to behemoth
and it needs time sometimes more time than people want to give it because everybody these days wants
everything now now now now now and that's what we like as traders too so i get it
did i hear you talking about Meta there?
Yeah, I think a lot of people used Meta today as a guide for the strength where Meta took out Thursday's high.
Not a lot of stocks are taking out last Thursday's high, which was the high from NVIDIA's print.
And then it took out actually the May high. So, you know, Meta right now is something that you could use as a bit of a barometer that
maybe some other names could do that too or be in it and make money there
yeah i'm very interested in one that too one of the apps i use um whatever it's called prospero
but uh they they were kind of showing off some indicators and meta on the short term
was one of the highest numbers I've seen.
It's interesting.
Definitely what I'm watching right now.
Highest numbers of what?
What did you say it was?
Basically what Prospero does is it uses AI,
looks at a bunch of different data points,
and then puts it into six metrics, which kind of gives you the couple stuff.
Let me get them in front of me again
which we mean tells you you should be focusing on it for a play is that it it's kind of good
confluence yeah uh so like the net social sentiment kind of just general line online
is as high it can go net option sentiment which is based on um how traders value the stock based
on pricing dynamics and options market large institutions
like head fund blah blah blah but that and then technical analysis as well so it's when did it
well when does that spit that out to does it spit it out to you at 9 35 in pre-market like how when
does that indicator work for you like when did when did that when does that put that on your game plan does it put it on now or put it on
15 points ago so yeah i think it's kind of like it's it changes in real time over it and it's like
you have to have so over 75 indicates it's in the top 25 percentile or quartile of it
um so uh the nvidia meta's been here for a while, but there are other ones where it's a switch.
Right.
And what do you – I'm saying there are a lot of good indicators out there.
So, when something gets above 75, that goes up your go-to list, so you trade it more.
So, that's good.
So, if you have like an A, B, and C list, when something's on the C list and not acting great and the parameters aren't awesome,
you keep it there, and then if it starts acting a little bit better it moves up the list so this thing gives
you a ranking yeah yeah no pretty much i like for me i'm what what i've been saying is is because i
look at prospero too some and what i like is it's it's like ai based and it it's basically using
you know different metrics so it takes the emotion out of it.
So if I really like a play,
I mean, there's like some of my core holdings that I'm like, hey, I kind of want to add to this
or swing some calls or something on it.
It kind of pulls the emotion of my attachment
to the company out of it
and just looks at actual metrics on it
and kind of gives me the confluence.
I think that's the way I use it anyway.
I think it's kind of what Evan's looking at as well.
That's cool. So where does it have I think it's kind of what Evan's looking at as well. That's cool.
So where does it have like Amazon?
If Meta is highly ranked, Amazon is probably lower and moving up a little bit
because it feels like it's just starting to look better technically.
So I'm sure on that metric, it's probably below Meta but above Google.
Yeah.
So for Amazon, it has the technicals set set up actually similar uh in ranking to to meta
so it likes it but the net options has it lower so you know the general options your positioning
is a little bit less bullish on amazon the meta this one is pretty strong though i'd have to like
i like to look at how it changes um yeah i would say amazon's getting stronger yeah i like amazon
too it's getting stronger so i just brought it up with that to see so that's so it takes an option flow too that's a
pretty cool analytic and honestly like so the long and it gives you shorter term and longer
term ones the longer term setup for for meta um it looks very very different than amazon not
necessarily worse or better it's i guess it's kind of how you go in and use it.
But Meta seems to be better in some areas and very weak in some others, where Amazon kind of across the board has solid, fine, middle of the road,
and everything on long-term.
Where Meta has a couple really strong ones and a couple really low ones.
Where's Microsoft?
Is Microsoft above both of them because it's so close to the all-time high?
Because the all-time high is like six points away?
No, Microsoft in the short term actually looks worse.
Does it?
Yeah.
It's still solid.
The technical setup is still 79, so in the top one-fourth of it.
But social sentiment in general is lower,
and then positioning is actually close to you uh
you know the pack well some people might say that's good i mean it's less stuff that means
less people are positioned in it so if it starts going it could produce a chase so honestly it's
just giving you data though so you could actually literally just changed in real time by the way it
went from 55 to 56. but um but yeah so that net options and social that
being super low with a super strong technicals and there's also uh dark pool and short pressure
so those are the other two ones which we haven't talked about dark pool and short pressure for both
of these for all these ones have been pretty low so i imagine that's due to size i like it
i'll jump in.
It's going to be the name I was going to talk about.
A good setup, Lemonade.
It's got about 30% short interest breaking out above a downtrend.
Yeah, so there you go.
Short pressure on this has it in the top 1 fourth at 75.
Net options, it has 87, so people are positioned positive on it.
Dark pool energy is high
you're welcome this one looks very different
i can look at that i can look at that chart and i don't have to read anything it looks like it's
that's one it's kind of like a similar so i built my own internals thing. I traded pretty momentum-based stuff.
From my own internal thing, it kind of scored similar to what Unity software scored for me
whenever I mentioned it on the space like 10 days ago or 9 days ago, whatever it was.
And then just boom, out of nowhere last week, took off like 30% in a blink.
So, you know, same kind of setup.
Honestly, similar stuff.
You guys were talking about Tempest earlier.
If you just back out on Tempest.
We'll see.
Can I come right back to you?
I want to bookmark this conversation.
Well, I'm just jumping in.
I'm going to go right over to you.
They have a short-term bull and a short-term bear. and these are one or two names on both short term bowl they have oracle eli lily intel asml at&t t is an interesting one and then short term bear they have stuff like qualcomm
hyatt uh win win resorts and then simon property so i'm taking a couple screenshots and maybe next
time scott
we'll we'll see how these actually ended up doing yeah yeah you know i could tell you i i can give
you the quick and dirty on all of them they're just going through oracle i'm looking at right
now looks great above the eight they poked its head above last week's range already so i would
say that's definitely strong lmnd you know guys on my alpha team were talking about it's above the
moving average broke it down trying to big short. That I would think is going higher.
By the way, his Unity, I love it.
I had a nice big day one on May 28th
and then pulled in and kind of took some people
by surprise the day after and then went to 2773.
So yeah, it's funny.
Like the old eyes could do a lot of this
that the, you know, the analytics do,
but, you know, having the analytics to support it because it's computer and AI and it's a
lot smarter anyway. So maybe, maybe Reddoe has got to start using some of these.
No, so I don't know. I don't know about the one he's talking about.
I'm saying that I took what I like to use and try to like quantify it and like
kind of built my own in-house thing. And I think a lot of the same, I think,
you know, generally a lot of the same stuff,
right? Like just above certain moving averages, you know, uh, in terms of like above average
volume options, flow, short interest, you know, it's the bread and butter stuff that you probably
are familiar with. Um, so I was just saying for, I was just kind of, uh, comparing it.
That's great though. Yeah. Yeah. Why not package it?
You know, package it in a game.
I've got to make sure it works.
Yeah, that's the plan at some point.
If it does actually, if I don't hit too many roadblocks, definitely package, sell, all that stuff.
Well, if you want to do competitive analysis, look in the list above.
Let's do it.
Come in and beat them.
But I was going to jump real quick.
You guys, I know you have a three-minute hardout and the markets at the end of the hour.
But you guys were talking about Tempest earlier.
Go back to Tempest and look at from when they IPO'd until recently.
It was in like an uptrend.
Still in the same uptrend, but it's an uptrend, pretty defined uptrend.
The April lows kind of like marked it.
And then, Sam, you were talking about people were buying it, but it's a 200 day actually just came live, like April 24th or something like that.
It's that young of a stock. And if you just go look at where they've defended the stock,
I think seven, seven times after it broke back above its 200 day, seven times found support.
So yeah, I was was i was long into the
april lows when i was we were talking about here i was looking for idiosyncratic stuff that was one
of them i'd lightened up once it got pretty aggressive but i still have you know a pretty
sizable position for me and that sell-off and some of the data from the sell-off stuff uh it's
like three percent of their business they mentioned management it's a new it's a new issue like sure you can say that management's not as equipped as some of these other other
companies but you could have said the same thing about like in fact in fact uh if you go back and
look up clips from like 2013 you had kramer saying the same stuff about elon and tesla early in the
early days so you got to give some of these companies room to grow but just from a technical
perspective seven times hit that 200 day and ripped off of it.
You know, so I just wanted to, you know, mention that.
And then from there, I like setups.
I like setups that are again,
idiosyncratic may or may not have anything to do with the market itself.
I mentioned Udemy from last week, Duolingo looks decent right now.
It looks like it could break
out any minute. Sam, you and I talked about when you were talking about Snow earnings, I asked you
what their competitor that's not doing well, what that stock would be. You mentioned it was Mongo
Database. I've been watching it. Setup looks a little compelling into earnings. If they don't
say anything that's materially bad, that thing's got a gap, could really rip.
Same kind of concept for Adobe, which reports next week, not this week.
Avago's got earnings on Thursday.
They kind of bought that dip real quick,
probably positioning for an all-time high if they don't sneeze into the earnings.
And then outside of that, just like I mentioned Lilly lastly last week seven against 720 looks decent still looks
decent uh other setups that are non-tech related but or like under the radar ai related john deere
back into its 20 day prior all-time high looks to be holding any sort of follow through from here
probably explosive uh you guys talked about dash boeing highest, highest level since February of last year.
For me, the biggest tell on momentum is going to be Rubrik and CoreWeave.
Those have been the names that have been just bought hand over fist every single day.
And I feel like once they stop getting a bid, that's going to kind of be a tell for the momentum names in the entire thing.
I'll stop there though.
Good stuff. Listen, I got to go three to seven up to get back on the alpha team radio. Uh, I'll see you guys next Monday and tune into the six 30 club in the
morning. I do a 20 minute live, a little rundown each day, every morning on
Twitter. So if you, you, you want the daily stuff that that's Monday mornings
and that's for free actually. All right, guys.
Appreciate you Scott.
Easiest way to find that is to make sure you are following Scott here on X.
Appreciate you for joining in.
Looking forward to it.
No problem.
Thanks for having me.
Take care, guys.
Good job.
A lot of good brain capital here.
That was awesome.
I do not believe there's any earnings today, really, that are interesting.
Maybe some small ones, but no.
There's one tomorrow morning. It signet signet jewelers it's a nice little dollar central i was gonna get there yeah
you did say one and then led with one on my bed i was i'm saying like one that i'm looking for
uh signet is one i'm looking for just because it gapped up after last earnings. It's been like beaten up and generally things that gap,
gap multiple times.
So probably the next gap could put it above 200 day,
which probably get aggressive,
which is why I'm interested.
But yeah.
Wolfie is the ticker CRDO.
he's talking about SIG tomorrow.
SIG.
you're talking about tomorrow.
I do see this credo company
reporting um no one cares but yeah no one cares till they do no one cares till they do that's fair
so yeah we'll see that one
we are coming into the close of the the day here on the market. My portfolio is closing the day green. I don't know everyone else.
QQQ up about 0.7, VOO about 0.5, Evan up about 0.6.
So truthfully probably for the amount of risk
in this portfolio, not a great day,
but we are still here.
And yeah, I'm kind of hesitant to just throw it around
to start here as we're getting to the close,
but StocksNipe, you have any thoughts on the market today?
Anything that was interesting for you?
Do I only have one minute?
Okay.
Yeah.
So, you know, the market's been pretty interesting for me lately.
Again, like, I mean, this was already covered pretty well,
but another insanely explosive day for the hyper growth names.
We covered Robinhood extremely well earlier.
Palantir has just been on a tear again as well. And, you know, we saw a nice bounce on him earlier today, but a lot
of the hyper growth names have been absolutely killing it this week. Just like what was said
before about the semiconductors leading, you know, I totally agree with that statement. I think that
they're often sometimes the first ones to trade higher in the bull market. And when we start to fall, I think they're sometimes or most of the time,
often the first ones to go. I do watch semiconductors pretty indicatively towards the rest of the tech
sector as a whole. But one thing that is also kind of just jumping out to me is, you know,
all the headlines that we've been seeing. And, you know, in this market right now, I feel like it's a little, it's more political based than it ever has been, to be honest.
Honestly, I really don't feel comfortable being short in this market, just about at any point,
because, you know, I mean, I think we're going to see trade deals come out any day now, you know,
at any point. And there's no saying like that could come out at any point you know 10 30 10 15 any
time of the day and you know i just don't really want to be in the wrong side of something allegedly
there's now a deadline of july 8th which is kind of a story coming out today
yep um even all even more emphasis towards the point though you know because we know
for sure now that these these headlines are going to be coming out at some point soon
you know and i really just don't want to be on the wrong side of a trade if that happens.
Obviously, I have stops in the right.
The headline out, U.S. extends tariff falls on some Chinese goods.
Looks like we're moving higher in the after hours.
But, you know, yeah, I just basically don't want to be short if we do get some massive bullish news.
And, you know, I've been trading extremely defensively as of the last week.
I've actually sized down and I haven't really been trading that much.
I've only been taking about one to two trades a week for like the last two to three weeks,
which is insanely low compared towards what I normally do on average.
But, yeah, I'm just being extra cautious in this market.
You know, I think there's a lot more uncertainty than there really ever has been. And, you know, I'm kind of just waiting for some of these trade deals to come out. And when we start to see some more information and there's a lot less uncertainty, that's where I'm kind of going to start to, you know, get back into kind of just a lot more headline watching than trading. You know, I've been waiting to see any updates on these trade deals and, you know, just watching to see
if we're getting any kind of new information. Also in this market, you know, I personally think,
you know, after 11 a.m. and these lunch hours as of the last couple of weeks, it's been extra rough.
So, you know, I really also don't want to get caught in some chop. But, you know, for the most
part, I'm not really a big fan of the uncertainty.
But I'm waiting for just a few more headlines to come out, which I guess is going to be any day now.
And that's pretty much how I'm seeing the market.
Aside from that, obviously, you know, I'm watching Max Evans and the hyper growth names pretty closely.
But I mean, if we could see some nice pullbacks, obviously, will look to add on some common shares if I can see the right opportunity.
But, you know, that's pretty much where I'm at right now.
I mean, I feel like a lack of events to really talk about or discuss, but I'm just kind of waiting.
Yeah, initial move higher, like you were saying, in after hours on that headline is a little bit up, but nothing too huge.
Who even knows what to take of these headlines?
I appreciate the thoughts there, though,
Sniper, and overall, I agree.
We're even showing, like, the areas, like, it could
be the other way, like, no, I guess this
is an example of exactly what you were talking about
there, you know, probably being shown in real time.
So it's perfect timing.
Yeah.
Yeah, so we'll see how that one ends up
going. I wonder if there will be more
context around it. Was that a true social
post?
No. Okay.
August 31st is the full headline
now. New one.
Yeah, so we'll see how that one ends up coming.
DocTalk, let's
we'll bring in the
talk here.
You have any thoughts on that headline?
Initially? I was about to take Leo down, but
Don't take Leo down.
Give us initial thoughts on this headline and then we'll come back to you after.
You guys can throw the ball around for a bit more.
Thanks, Dad.
Don't give us the thoughts
uh monotone do we have you
mr monotone wealth
i know we were hanging out in his uh his pocket a little earlier but
i'll i'll interrupt real quick you You got Apple moving up, Evan.
Pressing high up days
in the after hours as well.
They have an event next Monday, right?
I think it's a separate headline than that one.
WWDC is coming up.
There is some commentary about what it's going to be
from Mark Gurman over the weekend.
It's next Monday, correct?
Actually, let me get the exact date.
June 9th.
Yeah. Next Monday.
If it
can get over its 20-day
at 2.03, there's not
much in the way of it running. Don't do it.
Don't tell me something bullish here. There's not much in the way
of it running.
Just saying. If it can get over that.
And what? Like 2.30, 2 like 230 240 there's got to be some
levels there which you can easily get up to right 220 220 yeah which is the gap fill you know it's
a gap fill it's the hundred day it to its breakdown point from April.
So yeah, there's your positive Apple moment.
Boom.
At some point it's going to catch up, right?
Maybe.
I mean, if all the other ones kind of go sideways and they just need something to bid, they'll bid it.
That's kind of how they treated it before any of this stuff happened.
Yeah, it's weird hearing you say some good stuff about Apple there.
It doesn't happen often.
Are we getting any headlines here at 405?
That one Corito company did report.
Snowflake announced an acquisition there.
By the way, I don't know too much about Crunchy Data.
$250 million, rough valuation there, which they paid.
Crunchy Data.
Let me try.
I want to see if I can find the...
Normally it takes a couple minutes for the articles to come out.
I'll let you know when I see that other one.
Apple did pop right there to close.
I don't know. We've gone a long way to go nowhere honestly in the market itself
yeah we've been in a three and a half percent range since we got up above that 200 day yeah
200 day support and then that 6k resistance the nqs and nasdaq itself are acting better
on a relative basis uh it doesn't move as much, but it's pressed
up against the upper end. But you'd like to see some sort of resolution one way or the other,
otherwise basically trade the ranges and then they just kind of rotate from segment to segment.
I think Broadcom is going to be very interesting it the high of today 250 exactly is the highest
close they've ever had that was back uh in december and uh it's like what a dollar 88
above that for the highest print we saw intraday
yeah thursday after the close
i mean crowd strike and it was interesting, CrowdStrike was probably
my favorite chart
the last couple weeks,
and it's getting
the full-on breakout.
They report tomorrow,
and then Broadcom's like
just kind of similar setup.
I'm not a breakout trader,
but I do hold those companies.
Those are really good companies.
It's pretty interesting
with CrowdSt strike because they
basically more than doubled in the higher place than they were before the outage and proved all
the bears wrong and then you see their number one competitor besides microsoft of course 701
basically trading much lower than they were before the outage as well because they just couldn't show
up great company but i mean you, that was their time to perform
when CrowdStrike basically got a little crippled there
with their customers wanting to leave.
They had to provide coupons and gift cards and whatever after the outage.
And then now, look where we are, man.
We all laughed at that.
We laughed at that Uber Eats gift card, but apparently that was fine.
George Kirst is looking at us now.
I'll be like, who's laughing now, B?
But anyways, I got back with CrowdStrike.
Well, he knew how sick he was.
So I was sitting pretty happy.
You know that sector pretty well, don't you, Sam?
I know.
Yeah, security is one of my largest concentration hold holdings so so when it comes to crowd strike
sector yeah i hear i just hear about how sticky it is compared to anything else
any of the competitors is that your general viewpoint as well well you can't like most
companies they don't when you're reducing budgets reducing reducing cybersecurity is not, I want to say it's not an option, but it's not exactly something you want to go cheap on, especially with the large Fortune 500 companies, which they have a lot of their business.
Like they have like about 41% of all the cybersecurity clients under their tool belt.
So, you know, you look at a company like Sentinel One, they're a much smaller company.
I'm sorry.
Yeah, they are a much smaller company, but they cater more to small businesses who are looking toward different customizations and a much cheaper option.
But you think of a company with the big contracts like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, like they're using CrowdStrike.
Even today, there was even a – well, if you look at the Gartner Magic Quadrant, basically list out
the best cybersecurity companies that come to
endpoint security management platforms.
CrowdStrike and Microsoft are at the top two, and they're
partnering with each other to basically
synchronize their naming and aliases they
have for certain malware and threats.
So that way, they won't...
They basically won't say, like, hey, these
two malware is
the number one threat.
They're going to use the same alias so that way they don't step on each other's toes and everything. And I wouldn't be surprised if there's some sort of a national database for cybersecurity threats out there.
I mean, it probably already exists, but to a certain extent,
they're using the same type of criteria to defend against it.
I mean, we saw the benefits of AI at this point.
We have not seen the dark side of AI come to fruition, unless we just haven't heard against it. I mean, we saw the benefits of AI at this point. We have not seen
the dark side of AI come to fruition, unless we just haven't heard about it.
But when you think of Saturn 1, much smaller player. But I made a post this morning,
just invest in the lead. You could buy NVIDIA, you can buy AMD if you want. But we all know that
NVIDIA will always be the leader when it comes to that. In my perspective, I would buy NVIDIA for a long-term hold.
AMD might make a good short-term trade, but NVIDIA will always be the leader.
Like they're not – if they lose their leadership, then something else has happened.
But yeah, back to your point, though.
Cybersecurity is really something that companies don't cut the budget on.
What they would do is consolidate, if anything.
Yeah, I'm a fan.
And so I'm just a fan in general of just being long, best in breed of a sector that I like.
So when it comes to chips and video, when it comes to cybersecurity,
CrowdStrike, you know, things like that. So I don't know.
That's my general approach. We're still pumping here, by the way,
not hard, but just swelling up. What a trend day.
I just think seeing VIX around the 18 handle now,
after being in the 20 handle just last week for that little scare,
these funds, they just have to buy it because risk is being lowered.
So they got to add risk back on.
So, you know, I feel like we're going to continue seeing this throughout.
Just a continued melt-up progression toward all-time highs and probably more than that.
What else can possibly bring this market down?
As a bear, I know there's a lot of people who are waiting to short the market in certain levels, which is understood.
But I agree we've been in a pretty big range for quite some time.
But until that range breaks, I mean, it's just very hard to make the case to go short and heavy on the market.
Of course, unless you're targeting certain companies,
which a lot of people have done successfully, but I mean,
we already had a 20% plus, I wouldn't say if we didn't close on the bear
market, but we already went down 20% plus VIX was at 65.
And then now people are like, we need a correction. It's like, dude,
we just had a nasty correction.
Like, what?
Did you miss the dip?
Is that why you want to go down and so on?
Like, that's like the only thing I got to ask.
Like, what else is there that could bring the market down?
Besides the black swan, of course.
It's just so hard to find a narrative
because we have every reason to fall
with all the Trump tariff talks and everything and the re-escalation of tension between the US and China.
The economy was slowing down and everything.
Job unemployment is going up.
Yet the market just continues to go up.
It's very hard to fight the tape.
yeah i think you're making a good point there sam because i think the easier trade
like the trade side of things the easier play out would be for it to take a dip right and i think it
would be a comfortable buy if we got some type of dip on this but you can't ignore what's happening
on my chart right now which which is every mini dip.
I don't even know if you want to call them dips.
Every small pullback just gets eaten alive.
It's just eating it up right now, which we talked about.
The institutions have been chasing this thing for a while.
So it kind of makes sense.
But I don't know.
I'm looking for what's going to push this higher.
Is it maybe some more good news at some point?
I don't know.
I don't know.'s that's i don't know we're still stuck we haven't gone anywhere but it definitely doesn't look like it wants to pull
back and it as soon as i say that we probably pull back the rest of the week because that's
normally how it happens just as soon as you like give up on a pullback that's when they do it to
you but i don't know we'll have to see what happens.
Yeah, for sure. I mean, I think as far as like very short-term trades in the broad market, it's very tough to like hold on here.
around 460 i was pretty cautious until but still long over here it's just so hard to kind of come
But, you know, I was pretty cautious up until we, I think the queues are around 460. I was pretty cautious until, but still long.
up with a theory to liquidate a large portion of the portfolio and i've seen i've seen some
accounts you know do it across where it's like hey i'm gonna liquidate because i'm seeing all
this bear stuff it's like well i mean it wouldn't hurt to maybe de-risk a little bit after we get
that confirmation if anything if it's a trade but. But I've always heard the saying, never short all-time highs.
Like, you short all-time highs, like, you're going to get small.
Overtime.
If you do it over time.
Is Uber moving at all?
There's a little – some statements here, new CCO, some language to staff.
Oh, I don't think there's too much on that one.
No, it's not moving.
The market's moving, though.
That headline may push us off over the next 24 hours.
You know, after hours, popular times for big news is like 4.05, 4.10, 4.15, you know, so on, for big news like 405 410 415 you know so on every five minute
increments and but the bigger ones tend to be earlier on so my guess is we're through something
bigger any news stories that'll be coming there's a couple formats here that i could dig into
but most of them aren't aren't anything
this uber one could could potentially be a little interesting
yeah i don't uber was pulling back last week because of the whole tesla event coming up
rover taxi that didn't really make sense
like there was some more news stories that came out today maybe i'm just
i don't know feels like today was a week long
doctor do we have you i think he's on the way back he just drugged which disconnected okay
there you go it doesn't even tell us by the way robin
hood closed his previous acquisition of the bit stamp for 200 million dollars that was a story
that came out a little bit ago and then yeah hood's not gonna you generally don't move off
of the closing of it actually uber with a little bit of a spike in the last couple seconds there
there you go i don't know maybe that's just
catching up to the market a tiny bit let's say the whole markets pushing up
everywhere up they announced a new chief CCO what is that chief compliance
officer that doesn't feel like what people would be excited about so never figured out what happened to DraftKings oh COO chief operating officer is what they just just announced uh new sports betting tax yeah there's stock time for where that was i don't
know if that was actually proved uh interesting i um i don't know i'm really curious to see what
happens with the sweepstake model thingy because like um sweepstakes the the model that like
robin hood is going through is very different and it's legal in a lot more places so like you can
pretty much sports bet in California on Robin Hood.
Maybe they're one of the states that actually don't have swoop stakes either.
I'm pretty sure they do.
I don't know.
It feels like an existential problem for DraftKings and FanDuel
and all these other ones that they need to address.
But also, it's kind of the same thing as it was before,
but just with different competitors.
There was nothing holding these other companies against each other.
Yeah, but from a regulatory standpoint, it's a threat.
Because it takes a long time and a lot of money to get approvals on a state-by-state basis.
Can DraftKings just start to run a sweepstakes model on their thing and have two kind of...
Yeah, they'll have to.
They will have to, yes.
Honestly, they're already late.
Yeah, they should have done it yesterday. I agree.
Yeah, you have to see those threats coming
quickly and you have to make a decision
by which to address them. There's
multiple ways that industries do this.
You either acquire the competitor
outright. A good example of this is
Facebook acquiring Instagram. I don't remember
what year that was, but whenever they did, a long time if you i don't know if people have ever seen this but
the messages when zuckerberg was considering the acquisition of instagram those messages have
leaked uh it was like six seven years ago they leaked but you can look at his entire thought
process and there's um i think the messages were with one of his senior ai or one of his senior
sorry social media engineers yeah oh that was way before that um so one of the senior engineers and
he's like hey if you were going to buy one of the following companies for a billion dollars what
would it be and he listed like instagram i forgot what the other ones were anyway i read this years
ago but anyway in the conversation with this engineer, Zuckerberg's telling him that he thinks Instagram is a threat to Facebook, not because from market
share or anything, but because it could supplant user preference on how to consume social media.
He basically made the concession that Instagram did the photo feed thing better than we did.
And so to nip it in the bud, he just bought them.
That's one way to do it.
And the other way to do it is to partner with the potential competitor
and integrate them into your ecosystem.
Robinhood has sort of done this with CallSheet.
A lot of times you might go to a competitor in one of these new spaces
and you might be like, hey, we want to buy you.
I imagine maybe Robinhood, I'm just speculating, but maybe they did offer to buy them.
And CalShield was like, no, we think this is the future of betting, but we'll put our stuff on your platform.
And you can, I imagine there's some sort of arrangement there where Robinhood gets a take, but I don't know what the specifics of the deal are.
But that's the other alternative.
And then the third alternative is you start the product yourself, right?
So like if Facebook were to have released like an Instagram clone
or if Robinhood or DraftKings comes out
and launches their own prediction market product,
that's the third option.
So you have to do one of those three things, you know,
or if you're a smart operator,
you do one of those three things
when you see a new potential competitor emerging.
And now these sports books will have to do that.
I think they will have to.
And again, it's not because it's a better vehicle for sports betting than traditional odds books.
Traditional odds books are a better vehicle, but they're not legal everywhere.
Right. And that is that's, that's the, that's the important part,
right? Like DraftKings market, if DraftKings can now offer sports betting in Texas and other states
that it wasn't able to previously, that's an enormous expansion in market opportunity. You
know, they're not going to be betting the same way, but yeah, it's like a no brainer because
it's a loophole, right? Now here's the other issue thoughiner because it's a loophole, right? Now, here's the other issue,
though. Because it is a loophole, there can easily be federal regulations to close that loophole,
right? Like, so far, everything's operating smoothly. But, you know, if state regulators
or federal regulators are like, hey, this is a loophole around our intention to prohibit sports gambling,
then they'll close the loophole. And then you're back to square one.
Which, if we're being real, that's kind of what it feels like it is. I don't know about
anyone else. Maybe I'm just stupid.
I mean, yeah, like a state like Texas who takes a very moral position on gambling, right?
Like if you listen to Texas legislators talk about gambling, they take a moral position on it.
For regulators of that attitude, yes.
The regulators of that attitude will probably close the loophole.
They'll probably say, oh, okay, I get what you're doing.
You're selling event contracts.
And, you know, we allow options trading in this state.
So you're making it akin to options trading.
You're selling event contracts.
And thereby, you're allowing people to bet on sports. We think you are gaming the system by doing that. And so we're now banning sports based event contracts specifically in the state.
Like, that would be the next step of legislative attack if they wanted to take that. I don't think
every state would do it. I think there's probably some states where the powers that be probably want it to happen from a state
tax revenue standpoint, but they can't justify it to their constituents, especially in the more
conservative states. And so I think some of those states will probably take this as a off-ramp,
where they can be like, okay, well, you know, it's technically legal now, but I
didn't have to support any legislation saying that I wanted to make it legal and I didn't have to
disappoint my conservative constituents. So yeah, I'm just going to let it fly. You know, there's
going to be some states that do that as well. There's also the other side of the argument that
with all the prediction markets being available pretty much everywhere at this point, some of these legislatures will get together and be like well i mean basically
it's available anyway why don't we go ahead and get those tax revenue dollars and go ahead and
approve it and and is that like a pendulum swing back for sports books versus you know something
like like the revenue hoods getting from these which i don't think it's like a huge downside
risk or anything but that would be the pendulum swinging back the other way is, okay,
you've got people warmed up with these prediction markets.
And then now it's like, but the superior product is now available.
Maybe that's the get the toes wet, you know,
kind of warm up the people to it a little bit. And then, Hey,
since everyone's pretty much doing this anyway,
let's just go ahead and legalize it and get some tax revenue here.
Yeah, I mean, yeah, that could happen as well.
You know, the pendulum could swing back that way.
I don't see the logic as much for that because I think, you know,
in a scenario where legislators were like, oh, you know,
they did this under our noses,
they basically gamed anti-gambling policy and um were able to do this i think in that
scenario it's pretty easy to close this loophole you would just have to close this loophole you'd
have to do one thing you would just ban sports related event contracts on a state-by-state basis
that would that would close the loophole because i don't think like legislators that are against
sports gambling i don't think they give a shit if you're betting on who the next chair of the Federal Reserve is going to be. These event contract websites
offer contracts on everything, obviously. So I don't think gambling opposed legislators
would oppose event contracts in general. I think gambling opposed legislators would oppose
sports specific events contracts,
in which case, you know, you pass one tiny piece of legislation, which would probably be easy to
do in any gambling opposed state. And, you know, event contracts are no longer tradable in that
state. I think it would be that easy. So I don't know if they'd need to go that route of like
making the concession and saying, oh, you know, they did it under our noses. Oh, well, let's
legalize it. I don't know if it'd be as much. I'd take the other side and saying, oh, you know, they did it under our noses. Oh, well, let's legalize it.
I don't know if it'd be as much of an image.
I'd take the other side, though,
because I think like if you get to the point
where you can gamble on anything, right?
Like I can sit here and bet on, you know,
that there was one the other day that came out
where you could bet on like the inmates.
You're saying like, why not sports?
Why not sport?
Why would they say, well, no to sports?
That's a decent argument.
They have, they've opened it up to everything with these prediction markets.
You can literally bet on anything.
You can bet on, I mean, what color tie is Trump going to wear tomorrow?
It's crazy.
It's hard for me to devils advocate you on that point because I obviously am in favor of it.
I'm not somebody who morally opposes sports gambling, but there are legislators that do,
that think it's like a moral plague on society.
And so I don't know what their line of thinking
would be in that scenario, right?
That's valid, but you'd have to ban everything.
So, if I, truthfully,
my lean is more towards the loophole getting closed
in some states than other states leaning more towards
it. Maybe like there's a California or whatever that is interesting. But we are, this was a really
big topic around the election and before it. We're nine, 10 months after that. And DraftKings
hasn't done anything. And to me, that's worrying. It's a low risk hole for them to plug.
it's a low risk
hole for them to plug
I think I'm biased
I really like what Robinhood did with it
low risk, put it into the app
what did they lose from that?
nothing
their revenue model is literally taking a putt in every single one too
so they're just sitting there
they're not putting any risk into anything
it's literally just a cut of every single trade
that goes on
yeah, Robinhood's not risking anything and this is the thing I think is risk into anything is literally just a cut of every single trade that goes on.
Yeah, yeah, Robin does not risk anything. And this is the thing I think is,
like, DraftKings should have launched that kind of product. And if it doesn't fly,
or if it's not what they want, then, or, you know, the customers, they don't see volume on it,
like, okay, so be it, you wind down the product, like, building software in today's age, especially with an existing distribution platform like a core app, is not hard.
It's not expensive anymore.
Building, like, basic apps like that for these companies is not expensive.
So, yeah, they can take a shot at it.
I'm surprised they haven't.
But on the sports betting front, they're also facing this whole new trend in state legislation to raise taxes as well, to increase the take for state government.
So that's another headwind for sports gambling right now.
That industry has some headwinds to deal with, I think, for the next couple of years.
headwinds to deal with I think for the next couple of years between competition
customer acquisition costs CACs are still really high in new regions
extremely high in new regions for sports betting companies you know these these
bet 300 get 300 free offers those are very expensive when tens of thousands
of people take your offer so yeah they need to deal with customer acquisition
they need to deal with increasing taxes on a state-by-state basis they need to deal with the potential threat of event contracts they need to deal with customer acquisition. They need to deal with increasing taxes on a state-by-state basis.
They need to deal with the potential threat of event contracts.
They need to deal with consolidation in the industry.
That's going to be a pretty volatile space for the next few years investing in that space.
But there are a lot of potential winners.
You know, my favorite play in that space remains to be not even the books at all.
Remains to be the data plays.
You know, sports,ar and Genius Sports,
those are the two publicly traded duopoly in that space.
Those are the best ways to play this, in my opinion,
because you don't have to care about which state legalizes it,
which doesn't, who wins out in which state.
All the books use those data providers.
All of them.
You know, they're league-exclusive data providers.
I forgot which leagues are with which ones. I genius has the nfl and maybe major league soccer and then uh sports radar has i think the nba can i ask you
something though yeah here's my concern on that area is as these sports books looks to look to
differentiate themselves it's not like these probably companies have a contract,
and I'm sure there's going to be a renewal period.
And I wonder if, as we get closer to that,
there's a lot of concerns that, like,
what if DraftKings Edge is getting better data?
No, the books aren't even remotely competitive with the data providers on actual data flow
for these major leagues.
Like, I forgot, again, which leagues are with which of the two,
so don't quote me on that.
But they have league-exclusive contracts to provide the data,
and they're very, very sticky contracts.
It's a duopoly for a reason.
It's not a very competitive space.
Sports data is not a space where you have, like,
10, 12 multi-billion-dollar players.
It's a very small niche category that's becoming bigger.
Because the NFL is genius sports, by the way.
Yeah, there you go.
NFL genius sports.
Genius has the NFL, and I think they have a major league soccer too, if I'm not mistaken,
and one other league, and then Sports Radar has the other three major leagues.
And like I said, they're a duopoly.
But the reason I say that, I don't own either stock, by the way, currently.
I've traded them both several times, but I don't own either stock currently just for what it's worth.
But they're referred to what's called winner agnostic exposures.
So every industry has these where, like, the big bucks in stock picking are made in picking the winner.
Okay?
But it's really hard to pick the winner.
People think it's easy, but in the early stages, it's not right. There's so many factors that can come into play competition, new products, you know, stickiness of customers, you know, margin expansion and contraction, like there's so many factors that can come into play in the first 10 years of an industry.
it's really hard to put your finger on and pick the winner consistently.
You might be able to do it in a handful of industries,
and that might make your whole investing career,
just picking a handful of winners in a handful of industries.
But it's usually hard to pick the winner.
But that's where the big money is made.
But the safe money is made in the winner agnostic stocks.
And there's always winner agnostic stocks.
What winner agnostic means is your company benefits from the growth of the industry itself,
is your company benefits from the growth of the industry itself,
not of any specific part of the industry or winning out in a state or winning out nationally.
You don't need to do any of those things.
You just need to have the industry grow.
So when people are like bullish on an industry,
but they don't know which stock is going to win,
that's what I always tell people.
You should buy the winner agnostic stocks where, yeah, they're not going to go up as much as the category winning
play, but they are going to be safer investments, less volatile investments. So I view sports data
as one of those types of investments if you are looking for exposure to that space and you're
kind of scratching your head thinking, you know, who wins out.
I know it looks pretty obviously like it's going to be DraftKings right now.
Maybe it does end up being them.
But, you know, FanDuel has a pretty massive presence in the United States.
There are, like we mentioned,
these event contract companies that are trying to penetrate the space.
Robinhood is effectively indirectly involved now.
So you do have competition growing as well.
And so if you're somebody that's like,
you can't make your mind up,
it is always good to touch on the winner agnostic stocks.
I was going to say,
I was a lot about sports betting,
but we didn't really hear what other thoughts you had
around anything market macro related
or any moves that you did today?
Yeah, so I didn't do much today.
I did re-add a stock that I owned earlier in the year to my aerospace and defense basket.
I've obviously been talking about mid-cap aerospace and defense.
L3 Harris?
No, Mercury Systems, ticker MRCY.
So I added that back today.
I never got that.
I like the daily chart
on it it's held up really well in this environment didn't even come close to giving up the 200 day
um all year really even going back to november of last year stock was trading like 35 bucks but
um pushing back up into this 51 52 spot i like to look for a potential breakout. This looks like a third test of this 52 area for me.
We got one back in February.
We got one early May, and now we're curling back up
with a 9-21 EMA pointing to the upside
above all the other moving averages.
I just think it's a clean technical look,
a lot of relative strength.
They are really a picks-and-shovels play
when you think about new gen defense.
Um, to me, I think they're really one of the best exposures.
If you want exposure to all of these new industries, uh, but you don't want to pick,
you know, primary, uh, technology provider.
I think they're great.
You know, they do avionics, they do mission computing, they do microelectronics.
Um, you know, they do radars.
They do synthetic aperture radar technologies.
I know some of these words might mean nothing to a lot of you if you're not really into mid-cap defense.
But I like Mercury a lot.
I think they're a great company.
I think they're probably hitting an inflection point in the business.
Truist had a great note on them this morning, which actually I was looking at this last week, just technically.
And then Truist's note this morning made me pull the trigger to get back in it.
But they met with their management and said they believe they're one of the best positioned sub five billion dollar stocks to benefit from the new era of defense.
They said we're raising our price target slightly.
They believe operational improvements are on track, yada, yada, yada.
I always like when a good shop meets with management and comes away encouraged and that's sort of what you
saw here um this thing hasn't had big volume recently even going back to like july of last
year it's been pretty muted volume wise on a historical basis but all the big volume that's
come into this stock in the last 12 months has been buy side volume. Like it's all been on these big gap ups.
You know, you go back to August of last year, the stock jumped from 31 to 42, huge volume.
You go back to February of this year, stock jumped from 39 to 52, big volume again. Now it's been consolidating on sort of a lower average volume, which I like to see. And like I said, moving average is very clean and constructive on this one.
So I did add that back today, about a 4.2% position on that.
I'm running about 17 open positions right now,
so a little bit more than I'd like to.
I usually like to run closer to 15 or under.
So I'm a little bit stretched, but I like the spots i have i like you know i have
my aerospace and defense names um we picked up warby parker last week which is i know sort of
a more boring stock that people might not be interested in but that stock's quietly up back
to back days now it was up two percent uh on friday we picked up thursday it's up two percent
friday and is now up another one and a half percent today. So it's nice to see that thing sort of climbing out. I think it's a really clean technical look
as well. Sort of had this high and tight consolidation under the 200 day moving average
for the past six or seven sessions. And then we picked it up as it was pushing into the 200 day.
And then the last two sessions here, it's broken out pretty cleanly. So you may get a little pullback here into this 2086 area to just confirm the 200-day breakout.
But I like the look here.
I think the catalyst is really good, too, here for YB Parker with the Google Glasses partnership.
Keep in mind, Luxottica, which owns Ray-Ban, who did the Meta AI Glasses partnership, is a big company.
YB Parker is a $2.5 billion company.
So just from a thematic upside point of view,
a narrative upside point of view,
I felt like this was a good thing to take a stab at last week.
And so far, it's working pretty well for us.
I think my calls are already up like 70% in two days.
Yeah, so my shares are up almost 4 percent so that's nice uh on warby
parker to see that moving again to the upside defense names in general working really well
today i obviously have mentioned this a lot but kratos which i have a position in and haven't
had a position in for a while was up another three percent today um robin hood that's been
a core position for me since january of year. Obviously, just continues to do really, really well.
It was up another 3% today.
I picked up some Magni recently, which Logical loves.
I've owned it in the past as well.
That one was green again today.
So some stuff's working really well in the portfolio.
Other stuff took a little bit of a pause today, but I didn't have any positions down more than 1.5% today. So all in all, pretty muted action for the stuff that wasn't working today.
And the stuff that was working continues to work really well.
So, yeah, I don't have any really problem with the market action here.
I know we got a lot of concerns over the weekend about what was happening with Ukraine and Russia.
People thought of it as like a World War III moment.
I always say this, but I don't try to predict those things.
And I encourage you guys not to try to predict those things.
You know, World War Three does come.
We'll deal with it when it comes.
It's not really something you should try to like position your portfolio for.
You're going to end up hurting yourself more than you end up helping yourself.
Don't try to predict things that you can't predict.
It's just like pretty simple.
And I say that and people will hear that and be like, that's obvious, dude.
But it's all over Twitter every day.
Just people trying to predict things that they have no hope of predicting.
That's a waste of energy, in my view.
Fool's errand, however you want to phrase it.
It's just you're never going to be able to do it consistently.
You're never, ever going to be able to call recessions consistently.
You're never, ever going to be able to time economic downturns consistently.
And the key word in all of this, by the way, is consistently.
You might be able to do it once or twice.
You know, you might be able to have a Michael Burry moment during the big short.
But look how wrong Michael Burry has been since then trying the same thing.
No matter how smart you are, no matter how good of a call you've made or how many of them you've made,
you will never be able to predict these things consistently.
Period. End of story.
No one in human history has been able to do it.
Not the best economists in the world. Not the best traders in the world. Warren Buffett can't do it. Peter
Lynch can't do it. Wharton economist professors can't do it. Nobody can do it. So why do you
think you can do it? This isn't like, oh, I'm the Michael Jordan of macro predictions. I can do it,
but nobody else can. I promise you, whoever you are in the audience, you cannot do it.
So knowing that you can't do it, why waste your time?
Focus on the things that you can control.
Markets, there's always this debate about whether markets are efficient or inefficient.
What I can tell you is even if you think they are efficient on the macro, which I don't,
but even if you think they are, they certainly aren't efficient on the micro. They certainly aren't
efficient on an individual stock basis, especially when you're talking about companies under a 50
billion market capitalization. There's tons of inefficiencies to exploit. There's catalysts to
exploit. There's mispricings to exploit. There's thematic opportunities to exploit. There's
so many things you can exploit well as an individual trader without, you know, a full
team of analysts sitting at your desk that you can consistently exploit on the micro. So that's
where you should be focused. You know, you should be focused on the things that you can control,
the things that you can study, the things that you can glean deductions from consistently and make money from doing it. That's the whole point of this, right?
Everyone that's in this space, I imagine, is here because you want to make money. And, you know,
everybody who trades or invests is doing it because you want to make money. You want your
money to grow. Whether you're a long-term investor or trader or whatever, the goal is the same.
And so focus on the things that you that
can help you do that not like oh there might be world war three on monday so i should sell all my
stocks or maybe we'll get a recession in q3 so i'm just going to go net short into q3 like these
are dumb things to do period even if you're right even if you're right it's still dumb because
you're not going to be able to do it consistently.
And once you make that acknowledgement, once that clicks in your head,
and it takes everyone different periods of time.
It takes some people 10 years of playing these games.
It takes some people two years of playing these games before they realize,
what am I doing?
Why am I trying to predict when we're going to enter a recession?
Why am I trying to predict when World War III is going to happen? Why am I trying to predict these things? Because I will never be able to do it. And once you make that connection, you'll focus on the things that are
important, like individual stocks, like thematics, like what the daily charts are telling you, like
what the catalysts are telling you, what new information came out this week that might change
the valuation of a company that might have gone unnoticed. You know, what peer had a great earnings report this week,
and maybe their peers in the industry are being overlooked for similar tailwinds.
You know, what stock got bought out today,
and there are other companies that have similar products
that deserve a bump in their valuation as a consequence of that.
That's just like, I rattled off like seven different points of
analysis there, but you can do any of those things and find opportunities in the market.
You know, none of those things involve predicting the macro at all in any way, shape or form.
Right. But you can find alpha doing all of those things. You can find alpha reading analyst
research in the morning. If you know what you're looking for, that might be the key phrase in that.
If you know what you're looking for, you can find alpha by, you know, paying attention to the right people on Twitter.
There's some really, really smart people on Twitter, you know, that consistently put out
winning ideas.
You can find, I mean, I can just keep going, but there's millions and millions of ways
to benefit off of the inefficiencies of the market when it comes to the micro, when it
comes to individual stocks.
That's what I mean by the micro, individual stocks, especially not, you know, stocks that are not in the mag seven. You know, not your Amazon,
NVIDIA, Facebook. These stocks are pretty efficient, not always, but pretty efficient
because there's a million eyes on them. There's 100 million shares traded a day. Like it's hard
to not be efficient when you have that much liquidity. But you look down the chain a little
bit, you look at some of these maybe not as discussed industries, not as sexy industries.
You look at the market caps maybe that aren't 500 billion, but 50 billion or 30 billion or 20
billion or 10 billion. Those are where people aren't paying attention. The crowds aren't paying
attention, right? And there's great commentary and great information
to find out about those types of stocks and i mean i know not everyone trades that way but
for me that has been my bread and butter for many years and that's where a lot of opportunity is and
that's how i consistently outperform the markets by finding those stocks that people aren't looking
at like i just brought mercury systems earlier i i bet you 90 of the people in this audience have
never even heard of that company.
You know, and I'm not like saying like, oh, look at this special company I found.
I'm just saying that's not a, it's not an unknown company, right?
It's a $2.5 billion company, but it's, you know, a stock that probably wouldn't be on
most people's radar if you were just consuming the top-level blue-chip information, right?
You know, same thing with Leonardo DRS,
which I brought up earlier this year, which has done very well, you know?
Same thing with, like, Huntington and Gallus,
which you look at how that stock's performed off the lows.
You know, these are, like, not sexy stocks,
but there's opportunities in them because they're overlooked.
And so, yeah, anyway.
Warby Parker last week, same thing.
Hey, Sok.
Sok, how are you?
It's Frank.
What's going on, Frank?
I just love what you said.
And I wrote down Mercury because I'm going to start watching it.
You know why people try to be macro geniuses
and try to think they can trade?
It's ego.
And once you let go of that, you'll be fine.
I've been doing this for over 40 years.
And the only way that I survive
is suppress my ego when I'm trading
because the market will just run you over.
And, you know, there's a guy like every day at some point,
I feel like I'm getting run over, even if I'm right.
Like this morning, I came in long, spy puts,
gave him a chance, run right over,
doubled the position and was lucky to make 80%.
So it's recognizing and keeping an eye on the losers you've had
and try not to make those mistakes.
But like selling, shorting this market, unless it's like an overnight kind of fade and cue like Emp and I do, is dangerous right now.
And we eventually be right, but like, you know, it's just it's unbelievable how fast they'll run you over.
And it's the ego. People have huge egos on this platform and it will straighten you out.
The market is much more.
It can withstand much more than you can and your cortisol levels can.
So I enjoyed that.
Thanks so much.
Yeah, cheers, Frank.
Yeah, I agree.
I mean, like, you know, part of it's ego and part of it's just like wanting to have that moment, which also ties to ego. But wanting to have that moment where you're like, see, we're in recession. Look, I told you guys we were going to get into recession. Like, boom, you know, mic drop. Like, okay. Like, how many times are you going to consistently make money off that call? The answer is like maybe 1% of the time.
Right?
Like to really make, think about this, contextualize this if you're in the audience.
Let's say I knew a recession was coming next month.
What would you do?
Right?
Most people would be like, well, I would sell stocks and get short the market.
Go look at the historical precedent.
Right?
In order to time that and actually make money on that, like a blockbuster
trade, you would have to be perfect, like to the candle, you'd have to be perfect with your buy and
sell to short the market perfectly pre-recession, into recession, even if you knew it was coming
and you don't know it's coming. You don't know when it's coming. So that makes it a magnitudes more complicated. Right. So, yeah, I mean, if you're out there and, you know, I know SPI is going to 7,000 by the end of the year.
Like, that's equally irresponsible in my view because you don't know what's going to happen.
You don't know what's going to end up with this tariff stuff.
You don't know how it's going to impact the real economy.
You don't know what trade balance is going to look like in the second half of the year.
You don't know what oil prices are going to look like in the second half of the year.
You don't know what general inflation will look like by December of the year. You don't know what oil prices are going to look like in the second half of the year. You don't know what general inflation will look like by December of this year. You don't know
what the Fed's going to do at the September and December meetings. You don't know any of these
things. Any of the answers to those questions, you simply do not know. None of us know. I'm not
saying you don't know. I don't know either. I also have no idea about the answers to any of
those questions. So why would you act on it like in no other scenario
outside of the markets would you act on things that you had zero information about right and
no other scenario in your life would you be like I don't know what's gonna happen so I'm just gonna
do this out of fear like that's just a crazy way to behave so don't do it in markets either and
again I want to reiterate I'm not saying markets won't go down markets go up and down all the here. Like that's just a crazy way to behave. So don't do it in markets either. And again,
I want to reiterate, I'm not saying markets won't go down. Markets go up and down all the fucking
time. This isn't, I'm not speaking to this from like a permable attitude. I'm speaking to this
from the attitude of the uselessness of predicting what's going to happen. That's the attitude I'm
speaking to this from. The markets could go down next week. They could go down tomorrow. They could punch through the 200-day moving average next week,
in which case I would start to be more bearish, right? But you have to have some semblance of
how you're going to read the markets and some consistency in the way you read the markets.
And, you know, if your line in the sand is the 200-day like mine is, great. When you're below
the 200-day, you get cautious, you get defensive, you take some exposure off the table. when you're below the 200 a you get cautious you get um defensive you take some
exposure off the table when you're back above you dance with the music like you have to have
these sort of areas of of of composition and confluence that you look for to say yeah i'm
willing to be bullish here or no i'm not willing to be bullish here and it's really that simple
outside of that the rest is noise uh wolfie what up? I see your hand's been up for a while.
I just caught the tail end of it, but if, you know, everybody's, not everybody, but like the majority of these people who are on here,
their favorite, one of their favorite movies, Big Short, if you go back and just watch that movie,
just look at, read the book about how the story went down.
read the book about how the story went down. Several of those guys who we famously or infamously
remember them as having made the most money or shorted the market during that period,
there were different moments where, you know, their own thesis may have been tested or may have
been checked to see whether or not they were right.
Like there's one scene in particular where the bonds go up despite the data suggesting that it should go down. And then they get, because it's an illiquid transaction, they get required to put
up collateral. And so like, just imagine in this situation, you're're right you're in a position that's going to bear out and be right
um but now your counterparty is basically saying no fuck you we're taking your money
or put up more money to stay in the trade so like yeah i don't i don't disagree with trying to
go against the grain i do think though that if you are in a situation with retail unlike you
know professionals if you're not long-term
investing, just like about trading, you are in, we are in positions where if we're not sure of
something we could flatten out, which is completely different than someone who's managing, let's say,
you know, $300 billion or $50 billion, right? Like we do have the ability, if from a trading
perspective, obviously, if you're doing that every single day, the odds of you being incorrect go up exponentially.
And from a tax perspective, you're not really harvesting your tax appropriately.
But outside of those caveats, in a situation where you're not sure if something up or down, it doesn't hurt you to mitigate your risk the way that you mitigate it.
up or down doesn't hurt you to, you know, mitigate your risk the way that you mitigate it.
Trying to be like the very, very top or the very, very bottom.
You know, you can be wrong three out of 10 times and it'll blow out your thesis
just because you don't have enough capital left or you get worn out.
How long have you been in the turning lane?
That was a long life.
It's not me.
It's not me.
For a second I thought you were pulling over,
and I was like, you know what?
I respect you.
Turn on the hazards going to the center.
And then you turn.
That was a long light.
That sucks.
Trying to get into a line, and nobody wants to let you in.
Abide by the rules, guys.
Are you going to get tacos?
That was funny, though,
the headline at the top of the hour where they kick the can and it's like
You know, he got mad that he got called taco and then did what a taco would do
Um, I want to make sure that we can't probably have a hard cutoff here
I want to get over to Chris. We got Jordan this up here
It's me sorry. That was annoying by the way
I don't know what the other side of that sounds like so I apologize
It was a little what it was it wasn't horrible
It wasn't horrible when you're in there if that was the entire space that's different, but that wasn't bad um, wasn't horrible when you were in there. If that was the entire space, that's different, but that wasn't bad.
It wasn't good, but yeah.
Chris, what's up?
Yeah, I mean, it's an interesting conversation that you guys had about being off the macro
and just not really focusing on that too much and just focusing more on the company.
I mean, for me, when i look at i i look
at macro but the reason why i look at it is primarily because it gives me some level of
you know like indication as to what i should be paying for for certain companies and certain
valuations right i mean over time my thing is i've always been in the mind of okay where am i
going to see the best opportunity?
Not just because like a company is oversold or overbought, but like what are the macro conditions that could be proving, you know, to be a positive catalyst for a business or against it?
So as an example, you know, like right now, oil prices are where they are right now.
And there are certain companies that I'm invested in the travel sector that are going to benefit
from that.
Right.
So it clearly I know like, hey, look, earnings are probably going to be good as long as oil
prices stay within within a certain range.
And if I keep seeing prices like remain where they are, mainly because I'm seeing news that
saying like, look, OPEC is raising oil oil production and that's probably going to keep oil prices muted for a prolonged period of time. That gives me an indication with adjacent
industries that may or may not necessarily be on everyone's radar. So yeah, I mean, my thing has
always been find the things that people don't necessarily like, invest in them and, you know, and make some money that
way. Like, here's an example of something that I was able to just use my big brain to figure out
and make some good money on, like the cruise line industry. I think so many people, you know, post
pandemic, they're just like, oh, the cruise lines are dead. I'd never buy one, blah, blah, blah.
You know, they gave this whole litany of reasons. But from what I see is the
cruise lines are making cash flow. They're paying down debt. And at the same time, they're benefiting
from this generational change with baby boomers who love cruising. So that's a thesis that I had.
The thesis is playing out well, and I've done well on it using certain option strategies that I have
that are longer dated. The thing is, and also at the same time, I'm looking at their debt structures. I'm saying, wait a second, like they have a lot of debt
that's like kind of bifurcated where they have a lot of like a lot of debt that's super expensive
that they took during COVID. And then there's other debt that they took way before COVID that's
barely yielding anything. And if they were just to tackle that short-term debt, I mean,
the debt that they incurred during COVID, their profitability is going to go up. And it played
out. Same thing with companies like Verizon. I think a lot of people will be like, Verizon,
why would you want to touch that? And they would say, look at the debt levels on Verizon. And I'd
be like, well, yeah, but did you ever like look at the debt to figure out like
what they're actually paying and what the duration on that debt is and how far, how far out it is and
what kind of cashflow they're generating. And I think, I think a lot of people, I'll just,
just to add to what a stock talk spoke about. I think people would be, I think people would do
really well in the market, like better in terms of performance
if they understood the other side of the equation and not just the equity, but also understood the
credit part of it, the debt. Like how does that debt impact a company's valuation? Like I see a
lot of investors and they'll just be like, well, I don't really look at the debt. The debt's not
important. And I'm like, well, it kind of is, you know, like the debt eventually has to get paid.
You should at least like know on a basic level, like, hey, is this company, you know, doesn't
have enough to maintain its current trajectory based on its current debt?
And what are some of the hard decisions are that are coming down the pike if they have
to like do a massive refinancing of debt or, or, or are they
in a, in a position where they're going to get a tailwind if interest rates are cut, you know?
So those are the kinds of things that may or may not be like a lot of people be focusing on,
but like I, that's the, that's the due diligence that I do on companies and it's worked out well
for me, you know? And yeah, I just i i agree with everything you said uh stock talk
the only thing i'd say is i guess people have to learn to look a little bit deeper um and then also
kind of take some level of macroeconomic data and at least at least understand how that's going to
play out with regards to the company that you're buying you know i think a lot of people you can't
i wish we could just ignore the macro completely
and just say, you know what, I'm only going to focus on the company, not going to focus on
anything else. But unfortunately, that's just not how businesses operate. So especially if you're
writing a business that has very thin margins and slight movements in interest rates could
impact the overall business, then you got to
be careful of that, right? So here's an example like REITs. Like right now, REITs are absolutely
getting crushed. Why? Because their free cash flow is dependent on the difference between what
they're paying out in interest and what they're able to generate in cash flow. So right now,
there's a ton of REITs out there that are
technically buying opportunities here and there, but that's all dependent on if we get rate cuts
in the future. So if you're thinking, hey, we're going to get future rate cuts because X, Y, and Z,
then REITs are where you want to be. And if you don't think that, then stay out of REITs.
So I don't know. I'm more of the mind that people
should keep an eye on the macro, use the macro to get an understanding of how it impacts the
capital and credit markets, and then use the credit market information and do a projection on,
okay, if they're, you know, able to do this, how is it going to impact their business? How is the
yield difference on what you can get on a US treasury versus the company? how is it going to impact their business? How is the yield difference on what
you can get on a US treasury versus the company? How is that going to impact future pricing?
But that's just me. Like I said, I look at more just based on the numbers figure.
And yeah, it's just, I guess a different way of evaluating things, but you're right. No one can really predict anything other than when there's a massive,
the massive dip by it.
I think what someone said when VIX is at 50 or something like that,
like above 50, you never go wrong buying stocks.
Yeah. For me, I mean, I've, yeah, I agree with you.
And everybody's process is a little bit different. I think if you're dealing with a company that has,
whose debt or debt servicing ability is a critical part of their valuation,
like you mentioned, REITs, especially small credit lenders,
even big credit lenders in many cases,
heavily real estate exposed companies in general,
even if you're not outright a
REIT, if you're some other sort of publicly traded company that has a ton of assets or
leased buildings.
Yeah, all of those types of companies have some sort of durable impact or significant,
potentially quarterly significant impact on where rates are. But
I don't think you have to know how to predict the macro in order to trade even those companies,
right? I think if you have a semblance of an understanding of their debt servicing ability,
you have a semblance of understanding of their next 12 months of cash flow, you have a semblance
of understanding of their current cash and liabilities on the balance sheet, you have a semblance of understanding of their current cash and liabilities on the balance sheet.
You have a semblance of understanding of how that business could shift if rates came down and what your bear case would be if rates didn't come down.
I think if you model that out just generally, I think you can have a pretty good understanding and still trade those companies well.
Now, granted, I don't really trade those types of companies.
For me, Sam brought this up earlier, but I view the market as one big trade.
I view the market as a risk on risk off trade overall.
And it's easier to do that when you're an individual stock trader and investor like I am.
Like, I don't have a tremendous amount of exposure to any ETFs, right?
exposure to any ETFs, right? Like the vast majority of my net worth is an individual stocks.
Like, the vast majority of my net worth is in individual stocks.
And so for me, I focus a lot more on what's going on with those individual stocks and
like, could the macro impact the outlook on some of those names? Yeah. But I personally,
and again, this is just me cross that road when I come to it. Like if there's a name in my book that is susceptible,
very susceptible to a recession, a consumer recession, let's say, then if we get a consumer
recession, then my leash with that position becomes shorter, you know, unless it's like a
long-term investment, which I don't really invest in any sort of consumer. I mean, I guess you could
call Tesla and no way consumer discretionary can sell cars, but I don't view it in any sort of consumer, I mean, I guess you could call Tesla and no way consumer discretionary, you could sell cars,
but I don't view it that way.
I view it as more of a tech play,
but you know, and Amazon, you know,
is obviously consumer based,
but those stocks I wouldn't sell.
Like I wouldn't sell Amazon's long-term holding
just if we got a consumer recession,
because you know, who cares?
Do we have a hard cutoff?
Yep.
Yep. Hard cutoff right here.
Appreciate you getting into that conversation tomorrow.
Yeah, we'll save that one.
I've got another one to ask you about tomorrow as well.
Be back.
Same place.
Same time.
Tomorrow.
Power hour right here.
All the speakers,
do you actually have something lined up for tomorrow?
I want you to ask that question now and we'll get to it tomorrow.
Yeah, I'm going to ask them about the educational stocks he posted about
because we talked about it on Small Caps.
Boom. Boom.
Pacers and Six.
I won some money last night.
I appreciate everyone.
Or whatever that game was.
Alright.
Wolf Financial right now.
Stock picks for the week.
See you guys over there. Thank you.
