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Stock Market Talk
Recorded: Feb. 9, 2026 Duration: 2:04:51Space Recording
Full Transcription
What is up, everybody?
I hope you are all doing well. What is up, everybody?
I hope you are all doing well.
It's been an interesting day in the stock market.
Today it is green.
Today we are, depending what portfolio, what index, whatever it is you're looking at, maybe close to near all-time highs, maybe at all-time highs.
It's definitely a little bit of a better day in the stock market.
We did also have Sydney Sweeney. She rang the
opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Stock market's up. That's all I'm saying.
Correlation, causation. I don't know exactly what's happening there, but
Monday in the stock market. You guys know what it is. We got Scott Redler joining us up here
for this first hour or so. Looking forward. it is still a pretty busy week of earnings.
We have a lot of names that are reporting, the Robinhoods of the world,
which I will actually be asking a question on their earnings call.
So I am going to be curious, maybe it will put out during this or something,
of what do you think I should ask Vlad on the conference call.
But Robinhood reports earnings during this, McDonald's, Coinbase, DraftKings, etc., Airbnb, all during the week.
Today after the close, it is On Semiconductor and then Amcor, A-M-K-R.
Stock Talk Weekly name reporting earnings today after the close.
So that is one that we will be watching.
But hello, Scott. How are you doing, sir?
I'm doing all right. How was your Super Bowl weekend?
Super Bowl weekend was pretty good.
I am back in New York for just the weekend.
I am actually leaving during this.
So the spaces will probably close a little bit early, for the record.
I have a flight tonight, uh, going back to the war in Puerto Rico.
But, uh, it was pretty good.
It was pretty good.
Uh, I ended up, I put a little bit of money on the prediction markets.
I won some, I lost some, ended up a little bit down,
but had a good time while watching it.
Was fully invested.
There you go. There you go.
How'd you like the halftime show?
I didn't understand a word, but, you know, I got some good work done.
I was listening to some good beats in the background.
It was okay. It was okay.
What about you? How was your weekend?
You a sports betting guy?
A prediction market guy? Transparently
I did most of the thing on Kalshi.
Now, prediction markets
was the thing. I don't care which ones people use
but I was putting predictions
on who was going to peer
the commercials, what brands were
going to advertise, and then a little bit on
the game itself.
I was all in on my first.
To be honest, I don't need – I'm not saying anything wrong with it.
I don't need any extra action or stuff on my mind.
I'm planning every day of every week for thousands and thousands of people.
So for the Super Bowl, there was a party I went to,
and the last thing I needed to do is bet on who's going to be in what commercial, who's going to get the first touchdown.
I did some boxes with my friends and I just hung out.
Sometimes you just got to rest the brain.
It doesn't always have to have action, action, action.
So people kind of make fun of me when I'm like, well, I'm not really a betting man.
So I'm not because everyone's who are you taking on the Super Bowl?
I'm like, I don't bet.
I'm not betting.
Like you bet every day in the stock market. I that's not true that is not true um i do make
calculated um i put money to work in calculated scenarios i i frame trades i know my time frame i
at least have an edge when i'm doing it it's not a coin flip it's not a guess i get to pick and
choose the things i want to do um so i'm really not, you know, I'm kind of risk averse and I like to, you know, exercise the rest of my brain instead of putting more money to work, you know, for things that, you know, we don't really have to.
But, you know, you're a little bit younger.
You'll get older and you might do the same thing down the road.
But anyway.
You live in Puerto Rico and you didn't understand a word of the
halftime show um not yet not yet not yet hi hi hi halfway i i did understand when he was saying
the cities within puerto rico muy bien muy bien it just a little to be honest i don't want to get
into the whole you know the methodology or you know like I just, when the halftime showed to me, it just was, it was a little confusing that, again, it's a Super Bowl and there was not one word in English.
And that's all I'm going to say about it.
You know, I'm not kidding.
He's very talented.
It's great.
You know, but again, like that choice for that, to me, you know, I'm not in charge of the Super Bowl.
So I guess I don't have to say, but that just, you know, it was a charge of the super bowl so i guess i don't have to say but that just you know it was a little odd scott smart that all the trees it was people were in
the trees i don't disagree with you it was the it was the biggest halftime show what by viewership
by far blew away every other one by big numbers go go figure so um so i mean i agree i you know
it was a little different but uh it got big for you it
got big ratings okay so just i don't need to know it's over it's behind us you know i don't need to
debate it doesn't affect my life i'm not debating i just thought that was i thought that was
interesting you know i definitely uh yeah it's you know i know the adult wants to go um you know
he wants to go worldwide and there's you know there are a lot of people out there that don't speak English
and that he can get their attention if he caters to them in some capacity.
So it is what it is.
So it's cool.
Let's talk a little market here.
Normally it's actually you coming in and being like,
Kevin, let's talk market.
But I'm going to say it might be a little bit of a truncated space,
at least on the back end of it.
So I want to keep this conversation good and dense.
First of all, I won't say as much on this one.
Follow the speakers.
They're all fantastic.
Especially when someone says something smart, interesting.
It's a great way to find new people going into this.
I'd like to keep the first question open-ended
if there was something that you were excited about and talking on here.
It's obviously the market was pretty red at different points
throughout the different time over the last couple days had a couple nice days of recovery from the lows but
um yeah rough market crypto leading the way lower i'm curious scott on uh what's the first i gotta
apologize a week a week ago i i was telling people that i was buying amazon for earnings and i lost
you know a decent amount of money on that.
So it happens.
At least it was risk was premium paid.
And it was definitely, you know, just wasn't fun.
I kind of knew I kind of felt it was going to happen, but I just I, you know, I just did it.
I went involved anyway and I wound up losing a decent amount.
out. So I know I talked about it last Monday, so if people did that with me, we will find other
So I know I talked about it last Monday.
ways that are more calculated where we're not in an earnings play to make money back. I promise
you that. And if you went with that, I apologize. And now if someone's like, what about Amazon now?
People are saying it's trading at the lowest valuation in its history.
And it's history.
The lowest valuation in the history of coming public, Amazon's trading at today.
So if you think that matters, then you have yesterday's low, which is the post earnings low.
You buy it versus that.
And if it absorbs the move and starts to go in the gap, which I tried today and then't great, you know, then maybe there's a swing trade from here. But if Amazon breaks Friday's low tomorrow, it doesn't care what
the valuation is. It cares about other things or it's just the mood of the market. So I do once
again, apologize for, for that. You know, on a different note, like you said, what, I guess,
what did I do? So on Thursday, last week was definitely hard.
There were things to do, but it was definitely hard.
There was a lot of downside action in some of the super growth names,
some of the mega cap names, some of the mag seven names,
and crypto from Tuesday through Thursday.
So on Thursday's close, into that down move,
I did buy options on IBIT which you know aren't
doing great they were fine made some money Friday I don't think the market believes that crypto is
going to go up I did buy a lot of options on the IGV which is something the you know the VTF has
the luxury to watch it's on and I also mentioned it on Twitter it's up 3.4 percent so instead of
trying to play a bounce in Microsoft and you know and service now, I'm like, you know
what?
I'm going to go out to March 20th.
Actually, was it March 20th?
No, February 20th and buy the $84 calls.
And right now they're doing really well.
So that was a calculated way to play the software sector, the carnage of it.
the carnage of it. And now we get to see if it starts to act better. And there are other types
And now we get to see if it starts to act better.
And there are other types of trades.
of trades. But I did those two kind of buying the hole on Thursday. And then I have to say,
Friday to me was a little surprising. Friday was one of those days where you really could have got
hurt. The market was oversold, but it wasn't crazy oversold. It looked like we were in this in the start you know we were starting a bigger
downturn like that was like the first part of the move um it felt like it was at least with the way
you know a lot of the name besides the mid caps and some energy like it felt like things were
bending and breaking so i know for me i sold premium into the close on thursday saying hey
you know what i'm gonna sell the 685s and the 687s
because I still have some risk on as far as a lot of options positions. That'll help with the
slippage. And then we gapped up on Friday. I'm like, hmm, I'm like, this has the feel. If we
don't contain the price here at 681.50, this could squeeze the shorts all day. And I'm like,
Dow 50,000. So the Dow is strong. I'm like, mid-caps going nuts? They're strong.
Small caps are fine.
I'm like, I better get the hell out of this short, which I was pretty short.
I'm not going to roll it up and want markets to go lower if they're not.
So Friday, you had a chance to switch some gears.
And this morning, you had a chance, too.
This morning, spies were like a point or two lower.
So if you didn't want weekend risk, you could have bought it.
This morning, I posted the chart.
I said, if we hold 687-ish, chances are we have commitment to Friday
and maybe the S&P will follow some of the other sectors
and make a new high this week above 697.
So at least it gave you a chance to do that today.
So for me, my style today was a better trading day
because I was able, you know, I covered my short in the
spiders. I was able to buy a dip in Google. I bought Tesla to go green. I came in long NVIDIA
because of the way it acted on Friday. I was able to buy more. So some things just, and I bought
iron, it was red. So some things were just easier to get in after the Friday move because I kind of
framed my brain that, hey, we're not broken. We're
oversold and you have to get yourself situated where if we continue to the upside, you got to
get back in rhythm. So I got back in rhythm late in the day, Friday and this morning, and now I'm
not revenging the market. I don't need it to be assured and I'm just trying to figure out ways to
be calculated and make money long because I'm not like some of the guys in your chat that, you know, are so good with all these mid caps and small caps that are on the move.
Like for me, I'm still, I guess I'm an old dog.
I like when, you know, the 30 or 40 names that did well for the last three years are doing well, and right now they're, you know, it's very selective and it's not happening.
If that makes sense.
We have had a lot of very good Friday stick saves.
Sometimes at some very key levels.
I actually don't really didn't look at the levels in this one where it kind of
ended up falling out, but Dow Jones pretty much at at all will hit all-time highs on friday fit over 50 000 for the first time ever
hitting those milestones um but the friday stick save coming in pretty strong getting a little bit
of follow-through so far today there still is a power hour here but we are close to ties a day
i don't know there's still a trust in the market has been the theme over the last
little bit and has continued to work.
Even as struggles do come in a little bit, or concerns.
I will say, though, there are definitely people
that shorted all day Friday
and said that this is bullshit. It's a Friday
markup, and they added to
their shorts today, and now here we are
at Spies 695 with the Dow getting
follow-through. The S&P
could break through 697 84 and realistically
be 702 this week so you know it's either it's got the same short Scott those are the same people
been shorting for a year and a half and keep getting it wrong well I wouldn't say for a year
and a half but there are some that you know it did feel as if this time was a little different
when we broke the 50 day on Thursday, it felt as if, Hey, you know, if you got stopped out of some
longs and you know, you were in the right stocks, it's good to be risked down. We're a little short,
a little short. And then if you tried to short the bounce at 685 back at the 50 day and didn't
cover when it went through there, here you are at 695.55, and you have choices to make today and tomorrow
if you want to continue to play that game.
I chose not to.
I did that once before in August of 2024 when we had that decline.
I don't know if everyone remembers.
It was in August of 2024.
We had a down move.
I was definitely out of the way, feeling good.
I played the bounce, and then I thought it was a bounce to be sold,
and we wound up going to new highs.
And I got crushed in those last two weeks of August,
and I'm like, I will never do that again.
But anyway.
I mean, that down day on Thursday, that was a very binary spot, right?
And I know there were people that were going short and I know there
were people going long. And I basically told my subscribers, we don't have any edge right here.
We're literally on the lows of that down day that we had on the 20th. And we could just as easily
gap down on Friday or gap up. And so I don't think there's anything wrong with saying, you know what?
I might miss a initial move,
but right now the odds are not my favor.
And if it goes against me,
it could do too much damage.
The play on Friday,
which is a tougher play,
right?
It's a harder play is to try to find an inner day spot to see if you can
trade against that.
Right.
Instead of taking that overnight risk.
Then what you do is then it's just a question of are you taking a day trade and is it going to transition into a swing trade because it finishes strong and you take a little bit off to give yourself cushion?
Or did you just take it for cash flow?
But I don't think there's anything wrong with being flat or at least being very, very defensive on the close on Thursday.
Anyone that says that they knew what was going to happen either way there, I think, is just blowing smoke.
They definitely didn't because we were down 30 handles Thursday evening, you know, and everybody that was long was all worried.
And then everyone who was short was counting their money.
And then when you woke up in the morning, we were up 45 handles.
So it was definitely, you know, one of those toss ups. It was, you know, if you had 20% left over short, and you
were buying a few things in the hole that were so drastically thrown out the window with some
kind of calculated options. Yeah, that was the right thing to do. And then like you said,
the real calculated was midday when the spies went to, you know, 685 and 686, and we're holding
there and things weren't coming in, that was the spot where
you said, hey, I better cover, maybe I could buy a few things and, and then, you know, start
massaging them moving forward, you know, and that's kind of like what I did. I said, I didn't
have enough risk on it, you know, and it was hard to tell what was going on because you had the
mid caps going, the energy on, you know, after a good report, Google's lower, Amazon was crap,
you know, Apple's a little extended
softer seemed like it was putting in a lot bottom but it's done that before you know but then you
had you know funny thing is i'm sure option might be upset with this right now because
you know you had nvidia which was really strong on on friday so this morning it gave you a way
to buy more you had a quick move to 193 hovering hovering all day. Now it's rolling over, you know, in the last right here.
It's just it's funny. These names are just not the names.
Yeah, I had a great trade on NVIDIA this morning and then I got back into it when it came down towards VWAP.
weapon. I'm sitting in just a couple calls now. It was very heavy this morning, but you're right.
And I'm sitting in just a couple calls now. It was very heavy this morning. But you're right. It's coming in.
It's coming in. Amazon, the first thing I did on Friday morning is I went out and I sold the
June 205 calls against my position, which I own around 203. I'm like, you know what?
That report, the narrative's changed. They didn't like it. I'm like,
let me just go cover my position now and then I could adjust it later on as time goes on.
Let's put some protection in case this thing really dumps.
Unfortunately, I got to run early today. I have a meeting, but you know, Scott, to me, but let's put some protection in case this thing really dumps. Right. Yeah.
Unfortunately, I got to run early today.
I have a meeting.
But, you know, Scott, to me, this pattern, this market remains the same on the SPY.
We are on our fifth 3% to 5% pullback in the last three months.
That's unheard of.
And you know how many times we've gapped up off of those?
You know how many times we close on the lows, we trap the shorts, and we gap up?
I think four of the five of them.
This pattern is absolutely stuck and remains the same.
We'll push to all-time highs by a little bit and then pull right back.
It's just been nonstop on the spot.
The pattern is the pattern until it's not.
So, like, you couldn't be all in short Thursday. There was no reason to be, but you also couldn't be all in long because we could have easily had a red, you know, a red, um, just gap and go to the downside Friday. And then it
could have went into Monday. So, you know, and I've not, you know, it didn't happen. The same
pattern happened, like you said. And now here we are spies at two, three points off the highs.
Like at this point, hold here and let's go, go seven points from here in the spies at two three points off the highs like at this point hold here and let's go go seven points from here in the spies why not what i mean what i want to see is this break and
not just go to the high and then pull back the next instantly the next day i want to see a sustained
couple day move above the all-time high right some some some momentum finally into this market
that'd be nice mike i i agree with you well i think you're saying this is like i'm not a big fan of
these stick saves, right?
I mean, I'll trade them,
but like they don't feel healthy for the market,
at least, you know,
from the way I've learned markets over the last 40 years.
But I will say, I think there's probably some effect
on the market by these new zero DTE options
on the MAG7s that we may not really fully understand yet.
So I just try to close my mind off to what I think what will happen and try to
play the technicals as purely as I can. But I, like I said,
the stick save after stick save after stick save, I feel like Scott's right.
Like it works every time until it doesn't work. And that's why I said on Thursday,
you know, we might've got a stick save on Friday for sure. Like that was the pattern, but the one time that it doesn't work. And that's why I said on Thursday, you know, we might have got
a stick save on Friday for sure. Like that was the pattern. But the one time that it doesn't work,
you know, it's like having a, it's like playing Russian roulette. Like you got, uh, you got five
chambers that you're going to be great on, but if that one chamber hits it, the damage is so
tremendous. It doesn't matter. I'll agree with you guys. I thought Thursday, it felt different.
We broke the series of a higher, um, of lower, of higher highs of higher lows. I thought Thursday it felt different. We broke the series of higher highs
and higher lows on the market on Thursday. We closed under that trend line. I'm like,
this feels different for the first time. But I wasn't going home short. And then I switched
quickly along on Friday on that gap up. And then i held some risk over the weekend and it worked out nicely right that's why the notable yeah sorry one of the notable exceptions here being crypto
i mean obviously it had some low points and it you know bitcoin got the lowest 60 and bounced back
up to 70. but crypto is still uh is a little bit of an underperforming area but you know what else
gave a lot of encouragement to go along and stay
it the vicks that vicks was up at 22 area and got look at that move down on friday it just
instantly came down and got smashed to hell that is usually a risk on maneuver when it does that
yeah you know just uh someone was just on my chat talking about, you know, the software balance where, what's it called?
You know, I'm in the actual sector, the options, you know, led by Microsoft and Oracle.
You know, something just to know, like Oracle for the first time in a while, which I'm not saying buy Oracle here, it got through the eight day.
It hasn't really been able to get through the eight day that much.
So you're seeing like service now do a little bit of a reversal low so tactically some guys are buying service now
this morning or now even you know thinking that it can get back to the eight day considering
oracle's already through the eight day microsoft is um getting their service now wanted to bounce
post earnings but it was during the bad time
of software so maybe if people want a tactical play feels like the service now could get back
towards you know not a big play but towards 105 to 108 or 106 to 108 just as a tactical trade
you got palo alto networks which is bouncing as well which is nice um i mean ig which is bouncing as well, which is nice. I mean, IGV is bouncing, obviously.
Another one, FTNT is bouncing.
So a lot of these names are bouncing in the software area.
So the question is, like, do you need, not you, Scott, but do you as in the audience
or you as me and looking at the mirror, do I need to be the first guy in there, right?
Do I need to be in there to catch that turn?
Now, if you're trading for cash flow and you're doing intraday day trade, absolutely. But if you're not, but you're
trying to play this sector because you think it's bottomed, I think it's a better play to wait for
this short-term countertrend rally to play out and see if it can retest some levels or base a
little bit, then get in for maybe a little bit longer play if you think if that's
your tactic that you think that software bottomed when crypto spiked down on on thursday
no i agree with that like that's why i only went with options i didn't go long because it could
have been wrong it went long the igb options are getting paid on it now if you wanted to go to
stocks what you could do like you're saying let the first move off the lows happen maybe get
rejected the eight day and then play like a W pattern.
Let it come back, maybe make a higher low.
And then at least you could be long verse, you know, the low that just happened on February 4th or February 6th.
And if that happens, maybe there's more, you know, you get a little bit more clues that, hey, this could go for two to four weeks instead of two to four days.
You know, because a lot of people have been trying to anticipate that first low and it's been wrong so you
might as well get that you know that the higher low you know where at least
there's more data to support what could be a better move versus just a broken
bounce yeah I'm a big advocate of something I call the move after the move
so the first move is the one where people are trying to catch knives or trying to get
a binary pop.
The move after the move is like you said, you go up to the eight or you go up to the
21 and then you pull back a little bit, you base, and that gives you a range from which
you can set your risk, right?
So you say, okay, look, we bounced all the way up to the eight.
We pulled back a buck or two. That two bucks is going to be my risk reward number. So if we break back above
that recent high, I'll get involved. That's the move after the move. And I think that's
a better percentage, you know, you have better percentage chance that that's going to work out
than trying to catch that initial knife turn. Yeah, definitely. That's what that's like when you start a new
active sequence instead of just a trade it's actually supporting a new active sequence like
you can see like in some of the retail like target you know anybody trying to catch a bottom there
you know definitely got hurt and then finally there was a bottom and then it came off the bottom
and then finally you know held the the 50 day-day, and then started a new active sequence from like 92 to 115
versus worrying about whether or not you had to buy it under 85.
It was a better buy above 90 than it was below 85.
You know, so that's the move after the move when you get a little bit of clarification.
So, yeah, there's definitely, you you know a different version of that you know and if you
catch the move you know then you're probably even a little bit more in tune to catch the move after
the move because you feel like you already funded the move a little bit so it's all it's all how you
feel and how you think do you see also logical up here. Say again.
What's up logical?
How many of you, uh, you enjoy talking to the gym?
You know what?
Logio, can I ask you a question?
Cause you're good with all these types of mid cap names.
What's up man?
So do you know next nav?
Like I, I, a lot of my friends have been accumulating this next nav pretty much almost a year and it's still in this channel it's still going sideways i'm actually surprised to see how strong it is because uh it recently gapped down
you see that big volume day i think it's because uh a company called anterix a-t-e-x was recently
put on the fcc's i think it's fcc um they were put on like this, the schedule for next month.
There's been a ton of calls
in that Antarix name
and they have like this 900 megawatt.
I don't even understand.
Megahertz like thing
that they're going to get approved for potentially,
which could be bearish for next nav.
And so I've just kind of avoided
most of the things in this sector
because it's way too regulation based and i
don't really have an educated opinion about either but it seems like a lot of people are very like
these these value investor guys that i know uh do seem very bullish and constructive on
atex so i guess that would be bearish for nn but yeah i have really no opinion
right the guys
that I talked to think that it's going to get the spectrum
deal, it just wasn't on the docket, so when it
wasn't on the docket, that was that big down move
January 27th. That makes sense. So into that
move, I went out and I bought June 20
calls, because you can only buy it on a down move
because the spread's so big, so now
it just had a two-day up move, relieve
some pressure. I'm just saying, I wasn't
sure, like, for me, I don't know the whole fundamental story.
I'm more of a technician.
I just, every now and then, you know,
it looked actually like it was going to be on the docket,
and then it didn't.
So, you know, I wound up just buying more options further out,
and it looks better now, but it's looked like this before.
But for those of you who know this sector,
and then it seems like, you know,
it's been in the space now since pretty much November of 2024.
So it's quite a lot of money going to work, accumulating in here for what should be, you know, a better move once, you know, they're on the docket for whatever the spectrum deal is for all these satellites because they're supposed to be in the running for that or something.
I think the chart looks fantastic.
Yeah.
No, it looks, especially the last two days, it snapped back with the market.
There was definitely appetite there, and now it's back above the moving averages.
You could be long the stock.
You could be long options.
And if it gets above 18.25, it looks like 22 is pretty easy to happen.
I mean, look at ATEX, though.
That chart looks really good, too.
It's climbing out of that base.
Nice volume.
Last couple weeks.
I don't know.
I just don't know enough about this.
Yeah, no, it definitely looks...
I think NN looks better technically.
Right now, this ATEX is getting right back to where it broke down from.
But then you have the other half of the channel, which is from 30 to 42.
My problem with some of these things
are they don't really have revenue.
So you need to at least be somewhat of understanding
of the trajectory of the business.
It's like, I don't know, man.
I wasn't sure.
That might be Stock Talk.
He likes these mid-caps.
I just know that most of my friends who who talk to me about this like it's it's you know it's not
really your time frame it's it's a little further out so that's why i'm trying to i just don't do
well i just don't do well if there's no like current like business fundamentals to go off of
like if it's like a zero to one situation where it's like, oh, you know, you're going to like get this contract and then it's going to mint cash or like with in and in the situation with ASTS, for example, it's like, okay, well, if you get like the satellite launch, then, you know, it basically demonstrates improves this product out.
a binary situation, it's really tough for me to one, enter and two, size it. I would only take
some of these as very small position sizes because it's still binary. I get it. Do you have a top
three or top five that still are viable because these mid caps have been just going off and these
stuff? Yeah, man. I'm going to tell you right now, I listened to the conversation earlier.
I generally agree with all of you guys.
I think that look, breadth continues to expand, obviously not bearish.
You know, a lot of sectors are working, but those sectors, I mean, my base case is probably
like tech is not the place to be right now.
Generally speaking, I mean, you can still have hardware, obviously not software.
So I think my base case is tech is sideways to down.
SPY, RSP is to the upside.
And then you basically get a move that is SPY chops to the right and maybe slightly up if rsp can pull it more than qqq can pull it
down so you know i'm i'm in that camp right now but like the problem i'm having is i'm not really
the kind of guy who's gonna go out there and buy like uh like i'm gonna go become like an industrials
expert like in these random large caps like maybe i could find some smith caps that are interesting
to me like right now i'm i'm right now, I'm not chasing a lot of
these things. I'm definitely not going to buy like staples at 35 times earnings. So, you know,
I understand that there's people who are going to always perform well in every single environment.
I'm personally going to wait for the pitches that make a lot of sense to me. In the recent volatility,
I generally agree with you guys like, you know. Q's finally losing the 100-day.
A lot of mega caps and just tech names and growth leaders in general losing the 200-day.
They just feel really heavy.
They don't feel buyable.
So I'm not sticking my neck out there.
I'm not catching the falling knives.
I think that the last two days of bounce
were, I mean, I think anyone who's traded markets know that stocks don't go up or down in a straight
line. So I think a bounce was pretty much expected after the type of move we had. But
personally, I've degrossed a good chunk of my portfolio. I still own, I have a very,
very big cash position, probably bigger than I
typically would ever have. And part of that is, it's not that there aren't stocks that are working,
it's just that the stocks that are working are not really that interesting to me.
So maybe I'm leaving dollars on the table there, but I prefer to wait to get a better entry or
it might even be at higher prices.
And I think maybe Brian was talking about this is like, you don't need to be the first
buyer on some of these names.
I may end up buying, you know, whatever stock at a higher price than we are at today.
But I would probably rather do that than endure a further drawdown in them.
further drawdown in them. So a lot of them don't look bottomed. The bounce looks like they're
So a lot of them don't look bottomed.
headed into basically downward moving averages. If you look up basically any stock right now,
like look up Microsoft or whatever, it doesn't matter. Any of these stocks that bounced in the
last two days, they're right into their 6 EMA, which is headed downward. Maybe it's
going to start basing. But these things, I've seen charts like this a bazillion times and
I'm just not a buyer. I don't see it. And I prefer to just wait for a better moment to be long some
of these things. I'd like a little bit more confidence when I'm buying them. You asked me
a question of like, what do I see out there that still looks great? I think Zoom looks great. And I know that's
probably like super, you know, I think, again, it's kind of a boomer market. You got to have
boomer stocks and like Zoom, well, you know, it's not necessarily a boomer stock, but in terms of
being a value oriented stock, I mean, what is it like 26, 27 billion dollar market cap,
but they have the anthropic stake. They invested in the Series C.
That's probably worth upwards of $5 billion and eventually
probably worth a lot more once they IPO. They have $8 billion
in cash. They do $2 billion in free cash flow. The chart
looks great on ZM.
It looks good. It's above $90 billion. It's holding above $90 billion.
It's gone sideways pretty much since November 27th.
Yeah. And Scott, that's a software stock compared to the rest of the sector.
It's not even close.
So, yeah, I like Zoom.
I've been talking about that.
Sorry, what were you saying?
No, no.
Obviously, people remember it from COVID when it went nuts, but people still use Zoom.
It could be reborn at a different part and a a different part and a rebuild and i think the charlotte's great and it's one of those things
it's like one we know for a fact that value is outperforming growth lately in the s p so one it
fits that factor but also it's riding the ai like the clawed tailwind which right now has the biggest
buds and ai agents like people are you you know, basically somewhat against the open AI players like the Oracle's of Microsoft's, etc. And people have
been way more bullish on, you know, the other whatever, anything that you know, there's like
the Google Broadcom. Now there's the Claude Anthropic like, so you know, that's, that's a way to get
exposure in the public market. So I think it'll remain strong.
What else?
I like this GFS, Global Foundries.
I think that looks still pretty good.
It's trying to work its way up out of this base.
The IV is pretty low on those options. I think that, you know, they're in a lot of very important, I don't know, like buzzwordy sectors and industries.
very important, I don't know, like buzzwordy sectors and industries. This GFS, they are
like expanding their physical AI competencies. They are making acquisitions. They like acquired
a sub business from Synopsys. They are partnering with Navitas. There's just like a bunch of
interesting press releases they've had over the last few months and the chart looks like it looks pretty
good. So that one's interesting.
AAOI is another one that's in the
tech world. There are
tech stocks that are working, but they are
more hardware focused
obviously. AAOI
is like breaking out of like an eight
year base right now.
It's a very volatile stock, so I just keep trimming
it on all these days that
it has 15% up days. I'll trim it because the next day it'll be down 12% and I'll just add it.
And I know, whatever, everyone has a different style. But every time it gives me a minus 12%
day, I hate that I didn't trim it on the plus 15% day. So yeah, I mean, I still have a good chunk of bios that I like that are,
you know, fit the buyout candidate. But man, there's like, I don't know, five to 10 names
that I really like. And I closed them out because in the near term, while the market is very choppy,
term, while the market is very choppy, a lot of them have lost what were key supports on the chart.
So if they had the 100-day and that was support for a while or the 50-day,
and then they cut through it. And now after the balance, they're running into that,
what used to be support, potentially now resistance. And it makes me feel icky.
So in the meantime, I don't mind having the cash, being a little bit more patient.
I don't think we're going to get anything that's like nefarious in the market.
You know, it's very possible that we continue to correct through time, not price.
So I don't want to sit here.
I'm not going to sit here and short the market.
That's dumb.
But man, I mean, and yeah, what's the reason for all this? I don't
know. But it sounds like we're going to get, I mean, from what I, from Kevin Warsh comment this
morning, sounds like they're expecting some pretty ugly unemployment numbers. We already got that
ugly jobs report last week. You know, that's all speculative if that ends up being the reason for
this. But I will remind everyone what happened in 2024
we had a market that every single three months had like this pendulum swinging from uh growth
scare to reflation it was all year long and you know i just think to myself once we get too um
one-sided on the sentiment of you know a recession or something. Maybe that's the next
leg of this. We know for a fact that the US PMI or whatever is accelerating. So we know that the
economy is not going to go into recession when GDP prints are going to be ridiculous. But maybe
the idea of climbing unemployment could bring back some real fears in the quote, you know, the economy.
And then maybe that's the fuel for us to see a flush finally. But either way, whenever I look
at a lot of these, you know, leading tech and growth charts, I just think to myself, like,
they are in the middle of nowhere right now. They're in between like basing or potentially wanting a flush lower or, yeah, maybe they recover.
But you can just feel after looking at price action for years, you can just look at a stock.
You can look at the candles.
You can look at the daily price action.
And you can just feel whether something has follow through or strength.
And I just don't see it right now.
So, yeah.
So, I mean, maybe that's a little bit too vibes-based.
But when you stare at ticks every day for years, you just kind of get a feel for it.
And the market right now is basically right back to the highs of the range.
If you look past in three, four months, you've seen these kind of lower volume flow ups.
And then you get slapped right back down through some distribution on some high volume candles.
So I don't know.
Until we decisively go one way or another,
it's really tough to think we're anything other than range bound.
And again, range bound doesn't mean bearish, doesn't mean bullish.
It just is what it is.
So I'm just being patient and trying to buy.
I want to wait for the right entries for the right things.
Because I don't want to be sitting the right entries for the right things and because i you know i can't
i don't want to be sitting in like some random stocks just because i'll say i'll support your
case for a second because i know that we were on a while back in over the summer and you were like
two to three hundred percent long bios in august when they didn't get ready to break above the
downtrend and finally they did and then it's worked since then so into
this huge rally that people are starting to chase it's good that you're able to you know get in cash
and sit there because you just made a lot of money when some people weren't there you know i i hear
you so that's a good spot to be in you know a lot of people weren't buying you know um biotechs when
the xbi was below 87-ish.
And I remember then it was on people's do not touch list.
And I'm like, well, maybe it gets above the downtrend and holds it.
It's just a multi-year channel.
And then same thing with XLE.
A lot of people are like, oh, XLE is on the do not touch list.
And I'm like, well, if you look at the chart of the XLE, it was December.
I'm like, the chart looks finally like if the XLE gets above 48 and 49,
the measured move of the weekly is to like 75 so you should take it off the do not touch list it means it
wasn't ready then so you know you caught a really nice move and then you know i'm sure other people
jumped on uh the xbi maybe at 100 you know they started getting on 100 104 and made some money
it hit 125 but up here you know it's it's just like for you or for some guys that were in there so early,
it's not a compelling spot, which I hear.
So that makes sense.
Yeah.
I mean, look, personally, here's what I would think.
I don't think this is the end of the bull market.
I think with the amount of, like, CapEx spending that's going to happen,
like our economy is reaccelerating. Like there's just too many good macro signals that are telling
me that this market is going to go way higher. I'm just trying to let it show me where to
be long. And right now it's like, you know, some of these balances are lackluster. I
don't want to be in those other sectors they're just not interesting to me i i
don't know them that well i'm not going to pretend to be a materials expert or whatever so you know
uh i know that when the pitch comes i'll you know go 200 long or whatever that is and just go crazy
but for the time being i'm just not rushing to chase you know like people are out here celebrating
two-day bounces um but i mean just look at these
charts they no no but the whole thing is also like the one thing that's a little different too is
like yeah we have a two-day bounce but you know the mid caps are at new all-time highs the dow
what got me out of my shorts on on on friday was i'm like the dow jones is at 50 000 i'm like
that's not a you know it's not a broken market over there. It might be broken in software.
It might be broken in tech.
It might be broken here.
Mid caps are making, you know, mid caps two years ago weren't going when the mag was going.
It's all different, you know, but yeah.
And like for you, for your names, it just had tremendous moves.
to sit and you're better off being used to cash
So there's no reason the risk reward isn't there to sit and you're better off being cash because, you know, you booked a lot of games.
because you've booked a lot of games.
We think about companies and charts that show strength, right?
They'll ride the 9 EMA, the 21 EMA.
Those are good times to add.
But a lot of the charts that I was looking at
that I was really interested in,
and don't get me wrong, they can reverse back higher,
but now they're breaking below their 50s.
They're breaking below their 100s.
They don't look as bad as tech necessarily.
And maybe they're just being indiscriminately sold off in the market.
But with tech, obviously a lot of the names being below their 200 day.
That's just no touch for me right now.
But I'm just saying, some of these names aren't riding those 9 and 21 EMAs like they were.
They're just breaking below.
That's the whole, you know, and then they break below to the 50
and then they come back to test it and then they're curling below it
and they get rejected there.
You know, so it's a whole new trade.
You know, that's why even the gold and silver,
I'm like, it's just a different trade now.
You know, gold and silver were riding the E and 21 day
for multiple, multiple months.
Ever since gold broke out on September 2nd, now it's, you know, it just broke up.
It's just a different, it's a different type of trade, you know.
But like for you now, a lot of these piles are just rallying back.
They can be rallying into spots to be sold versus rallying, you know, being above it and being supported.
It's just a different trade.
Yeah, exactly. That's all it is. It's like, I don't mind holding the cash because you know what,
if it is like, let's say tech is being weak and I have no doubt in my mind that tech will come
back to the market as long, you know, as long as we remain in a bull market, which I think we will,
I have no doubt in my mind that tech will come back and I think tech will lead actually.
It just has to. And so I would love to get some of
these stocks even lower and so I'm just waiting and I'm just gonna wait and see how these base
out how these show strength that they show accumulation and like I'll get on for the trade
but in the near term I'm not in a rush to do anything I'm just chilling watching all right
and listen then you can't lose it's where you'll have to make it back you just start from ground zero I know guys pushing it you know down an X It's where you'll have to make it back. You just start from ground zero.
I know guys pushing it down an X amount of money,
and you've got to make that back before you make money.
So if you don't need to do that, you don't need to do that.
I kind of like just real quickly, I like the way CIFR bounced back
and took back some moving averages.
I like the way IRON kind of bounced back,
but then even these are different than they were.
They're just in rebuild mode.
And they just broke down.
And they're coming right back into the channel.
So that's all it is.
It's not that exciting.
It's just the market that's in front of us right now.
I mean, yeah.
Just look at it.
I just pulled up iron.
It's right into the 50-day right now.
Maybe that's fine.
But above the 50-day, there's every other moving average. It's rejected right into the 50 day right now. Like, you know, maybe that's fine. But above the 50 day, there's every other moving average.
Like it's rejected right below the 60.
I mean, now there's still the nine, the 21 above it.
It's still below the 100 day.
Like, you know, it's just tough to get excited
about some of these charts.
It's like, yeah.
It looks like they have overhead distribution.
Yeah.
Sometimes it's just a trade.
So people are like, oh my God,
I can't believe I missed these two days in CIFR.
I'm like, what did you really miss?
Yeah, I know.
It's not even back to where it was in November and where it wasn't before then.
I'm like, you missed a trade, but it's fine.
But now watch it rebuild, watch it repair, and there'll probably be a better trade at some point if this is going to clear like 19.
But if you want to get it in the base and deal with it,
that's a different story than when it's breaking out above 19 or 21.
You know, you know,
like what I've been thinking about doing lately is like going through the MDY
mid cap ETF holdings and just kind of looking for the names that I really
like that stick out to me. That, that is an exercise I plan to do very soon.
But in the meantime,
I almost feel like I want to just park my excess cash in the MDY or the RSP
or something like that.
It's not really a bad idea.
You can't chase it now.
The MDY, it's like...
Yeah, I won't chase it.
But I just meant like,
let's say you get a pullback to the 21 EMA or something like that.
Wouldn't be a bad thing to do.
True.
All right.
It's 345.
I need you guys to take it into the close. It's Monday.
At this point, if I were a betting man, do I think the spies are going to be above 700 before the end of the week or back below 688 today's low?
I would think we'd touch above 700 before we touch back below 688.
It doesn't mean much. I'm just saying it just feels like that
with the Dow attacking on another day.
Some techs acting better than others.
We're in the middle of a small broken bounce in software.
Maybe crypto gets one more push Tuesday, Wednesday,
because it's kind of hanging here.
It can see 735 or 77 in Bitcoin still.
NVIDIA is trying to close above 190.
I'm just saying like, yeah,
it's a little bit,
we're a little bit more constructive this Monday
than last Wednesday, Thursday.
But again, it's very specific.
You have to pick and choose your battles
and make sure the battles you want to be in.
If it's not a battle you don't want to be in,
then just be in cash and wait it out.
Wait for a better hand.
Appreciate you as always.
Definitely people should make sure you are following Scott,
checking out the things that he is doing.
Fantastic stuff going on.
Yeah, I would tune into the 630 Club every Monday through Thursday.
I'm usually doing my best.
At that point, there's so many opportunities at 630 in the morning.
I'm usually going over levels.
I need to hold what the key to the day is, what I'm looking at at so if you trade for cash flow and you want to tune into the 6 30 club
it's it's free for now you know some subscribe to red dog mindset so they can get friday's all
so it's only ten dollars a month you know and then but anyway um you know that i think that's
a great spot to start you know and if you want to and if you make money in those 20 minutes you
probably can make a lot more money hanging out for the day with the Alpha team.
Scott, I would endorse that.
I try to be there at your 630 club.
It's the 330 club for me because I'm out on the West Coast,
but I think it's a great way to start the day,
and I would totally recommend everyone check it out.
I appreciate that.
Since I'm up at 445 i could take what happened
overseas i know where the daily charts are i know you know what happened the day before is there
over emotion here is there under emotion like really even like on friday i'm telling i was
like guys you know if if they can't reject price at 681.50 be careful you know could blow on this
at 685 and if they can't do there you you better cover your shorts. And by the end of the day, spies were 692 before that little three minute thing. But anyway,
yeah, it's, you know, it's there. I've been doing it for free since 2020. And I'm not saying I do
it for free because I love to do everything for free, but I do it for free because usually I find
a lot of like-minded individuals that turn into, you know, community members besides that, you know,
so I do that just to show, Hey, this is, this is how I look at things. And if you look at things this way,
and I help give you conviction to make money on whatever you're doing, you know, there's lots of
ways to make more conviction by, by spending more hours in a day. And right now I got to go spend
those last 12 minutes with the Alba team for now. So I got to jump. So I appreciate you guys. Thank
you very much. And yeah, we'll see what this week
brings. It definitely, again, you know, I think we're at 701, 702 before at 686, 687. And the
spies, if that happens, there'll be, you know, there'll be some things that are definitely
working out better than others. Appreciate you, Scott. All right. Hope you have a good one.
Have a good one too one see you next week
awesome
stock talk
it's a big earnings day for you
yeah it is
I don't want to say big earnings day
huge
huge
I'm not expecting
earnings from them on this quarter
that thesis is obviously extended mostly to next year Yeah, I'm not expecting crazy earnings from them on this quarter.
That thesis is obviously extended mostly to next year and the year after with Peoria.
But, I mean, I'd like to see a good quarter, obviously.
Stock has more than doubled since we got in last May.
So, nice cushion going into that report.
You know, totally fine with a little bit of red here and there. I mean,
even a nurse this last week had a pretty negative earnings reaction and followed the next day up
with like an 8% bounce and then up is up again today. So there's going to be pullbacks along
the way. I mean, I think the last Amcor report, the stock was down six or 7% following that
report and then had a great three months following that, you know, and went on to double.
So I don't get overtly concerned about the initial earnings reaction as long as the charge
structure holds up, as long as the weekly and monthly timeframes still look constructive,
then it doesn't really bother me. You know, if you look at all the best performing stocks
in any bull market, there are plenty of negative earnings
reactions or plenty of, you know, minus six or minus 7% days that pull the stock back into its
moving averages. That's just normal price action. Um, you know, whatever. Stick saves on Fridays.
Huh? A lot of stick saves on Fridays. Yeah, that's become normal price action too.
But yeah, I mean, I'm expecting not a tremendous amount from this earnings report for them.
Again, the story with Amcor is not a near-term story.
It's more of a packaging bottleneck story over the next two or three years.
But it's received a lot of multiple expansion in the last nine months or so
on the back of its uniqueness, right? On the back of its uniqueness as a player in the US
supply chain, there are no real OSAT advanced packagers in this country besides them.
And most of the other competitors are international competitors. So that's been the story that's driven that stock in the last nine months. And so going forward, that's really where my focus is, is on that
story as opposed to the near term earnings. But obviously the bar is higher now, you know,
stock's gone from valuation has doubled, right? So from that perspective, there is more expectation and that certainly
plays a factor in how you should read into this stock going forward and how you should
read into any of the earnings reports that are in the near term. So yeah, I still own
it. Obviously, it's still quite a large position for me, but I'm not expecting a massive top
and bottom line beat or anything. Obviously, it'd be nice to see, but I'm not expecting a massive top and bottom line beat or anything.
Obviously, it'd be nice to see, but I'm not expecting that.
According to my earnings hub, it says the numbers will be at around 4.03 p.m. Eastern.
And we also do have a long semiconductor reporting earnings.
Sam Sala has been talking about that one.
We'll see if he joins us here.
But yeah, we got a couple names reporting.
Robin hit tomorrow, a few others
throughout the week, and it's a little bit of an
earnings week coming up here, so
a good little bit to watch.
About 10 minutes
from now, those numbers should
be out in front of us.
We do have a Sniper up here. What's up, Sniper?
You got any... You got the Amcor expectations in front of me? Historic move a Sniper up here. What's up, Sniper? You got any...
You got the Amcor expectations in front of me?
Historic move, implied move, that type of thing?
Just one second.
Technically, we got a Wolf Defense.
Got Oscar tomorrow morning, too,
before the bell. Just FYI.
Coca-Cola, Spotify,
Datadog, Ferrari,
S&P Global.
We're doing a little...
We're playing around doing a cool little project here.
We started an AI arena.
We gave a bunch of AI bots 100K accounts
and let them in at the market.
One of the AI's went all in Datadog.
It didn't go well.
It's not going to go well.
That bot's in last place.
So maybe tomorrow can change it.
Give me just one second.
Wi-Fi just went out on me.
Ooh, it's the classic.
No, you are good.
You are good.
AMKR is one that I would be interested to hear more in on that one.
There wasn't that many news stories that I thought were interesting.
Other kind of topics, obviously the market rebounding,
Sidney Sweeney ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange,
and the market moves higher.
I don't know if there was a coincidence there.
Did you guys talk about HIMSS today?
HIMSS had a very interesting weekend.
HIMSS had a very interesting couple days.
They announced that they were going to start selling a compounded version of the weight loss pill.
Then, give or take, they basically got threatened by Novo Nordis.
They're going to get sued.
They got threatened that they're being investigated into it.
And then they kind of acquiesced and stopped doing it.
And I saw that they were down really big and then they had
a big intraday swing are they up 17
18% now or something
no no I don't think so
they're down 17% still
oh ok interesting
they didn't catch a bid but I mean dude
I mean pretty bad
under 20
got as low as 16
the company has no moat man has zero moat I don't know why people thought there was a moat here.
They've been like stealing basically a pharmaceutical company's IP and creating a fraudulent version of it.
And finally, the FDA has woken up and said, no, you can't do that because the shortage is no longer there.
no longer there. So it's just like, you know, that that has been the growth engine for the
So it's just like, you know, that has been the growth engine for the stock.
stock. I'm not saying it's not an interesting business. But you know, I think we've been on
these spaces a lot of times with stock talking, you know, we said, like, we don't get why Amazon
can't just get into this and destroy this company by putting like $2 billion worth of investment
into it. I don't know. It just it just, you know, I don't see the moat. Is it brand? Maybe it's
branding. I don't think that's much of a moat, though. So yeah, I mean, it's, I don't see the moat. Is it brand? Maybe it's branding. I don't think that's much of a moat, though.
So, yeah, I mean, it's just, I don't want to say it's nice
because I don't like to see when people lose money.
But, you know, I think being somewhat bearish on this thing
has made a lot of sense.
And now that's finally coming to fruition.
Yeah, what happens a lot is people see these, like,
young disruptors who have, like,
something different in their business model.
And they think that's all it takes like i would say it's a naive form of analysis but it's pretty common it's like people see a young company that's doing something differently than
the industry standard and they go well they're gonna take the whole pie they're gonna disrupt
everyone and they're just gonna be the new like you They're going to disrupt everyone, and they're just going to be the new big dog on the block
because they have a different approach to the business.
That's just not how things work.
Once a company becomes bigger than a fly,
a competing company, disrupting company,
becomes bigger than an annoying fly to these bigger players,
then it's affecting their bottom line,
and then they'll take action.
In this case with Hems, they had so many chances and so many warnings about the compounded drugs and they just failed to adhere.
You know, as soon as the oral pill came out, they're like dropped the compounded version of that.
So I think it's part of their management's fault.
But it's also this idea of like false faith that people put in disruptors just because they're disruptors.
Being a disruptor is not enough.
You have to be a disruptor at scale and you have to have some kind of defendable technology moat or execution moat or some kind of partnership that drags you deep into the industry.
deep into the industry like you have to have something to lean on and they just didn't have
Like you have to have something to lean on and they just didn't have that.
that and so i mean you look at that stock over the last however many months has fallen quite a
bit and has been unable to produce any sort of real bounce i mean it was back in in august and
you know it's now 19 stock and you watch the the the drop on that name technically, just relentless rejections at the 21 EMA all the way down.
So, I mean, it hasn't been a nice-looking name technically for a while,
and I think fundamentally it certainly hasn't been a nice-looking name
for a long time.
So, yeah, I wasn't surprised by that.
What's up, Wolf Defense? Yeah, I got the amcor numbers for you um sorry for my lack of preparedness
dealing with something today but um our implied move is sitting at 12.88 or six dollars and 82
cents um when we look at our previous reactions we see minus three percent plus 18 percent two
quarters ago monster reaction on amcor minus 2.6% and minus 11.35%.
Now, the one thing that's jumping out to me when I'm looking at all of the data on Amcor
is that it's up 59.7% since the last report.
And it's coming into this with a $12 billion market cap, which is significantly higher
than we were seeing last time.
And this open interest is at 107,348.
But interesting setup on Amcor and a massive jump since the last quarter.
So we also can notice and infer
from the last four reactions
that some of them tend to be a little crazy.
Exciting times, exciting times.
403 again is what time you should expect
those numbers to be reported.
403 p.m. Eastern.
Stock Talk, is there any part of this numbers that you are going to be watching here?
I know you're talking about the kind of what you're looking forward to is, you know, over the next years or so.
Maybe we're listening to the earnings call a little bit more than the numbers.
Yeah, I mean, you'd like to see tailwinds on their existing advanced packaging business.
But again, the big deal with Amcor is Peoria, which is not online yet.
That's the sort of yet. That's the sort
of story. That's the story. Peoria will arguably increase the revenue by 50% immediately,
potentially even double the revenue over time. So that is the major, major focus. But intra,
not intra-quarter, but intra until then, in the quarters until then then you do want to see some tailwinds from
the advanced packaging bottleneck which is is a real bottleneck um so yeah i mean i'd like to see
good top line numbers but it's not necessary you know like if they miss a little bit on top line
or whatever and it's like an average quarter an inline quarter it doesn't really impact the thesis
for me too much if i'm focused on a bigger picture. I mean, the same thing goes for synaptics last week. Like I wasn't blown away by their intracorder results, but
they reiterated all the things I was interested in with the thesis. And so I stayed long,
actually upside synaptics last week. So, um, I try to focus my stock picks around an idea,
something I'm looking for to happen to the company that's going to drive
multiple expansion or drive earnings growth.
And in the meantime of that event transpiring, I'm willing to be patient, willing to be a
little bit more flexible with a lot of stocks.
So that's kind of what the story is for Amcor.
So no, there's nothing crazy I'm looking for individually intracorder.
But, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if they give some commentary on the call around Peoria,
potentially around the acceleration of the timeline for Peoria as well.
So I wouldn't be surprised by that.
Stock talk, did you say you upsized synaptics last week?
Yeah, I did.
Nice. Good to know.
I think I saw your post about something about the robotics thing.
I have not been able to look into the report at all yet, man.
Yeah, the report was, I thought, pretty excellent.
The commentary was pretty excellent.
You know, if they can penetrate the humanoid robotics vertical
plus the on-device inference vertical,
I think that'll be a very, very good outcome for them
in the next seven or eight quarters.
So, I mean, they did a lot of talking about humanoids.
A lot. Like, their CEO, and he keeps alluding to this customer. next seven or eight quarters so i mean they did a lot of talking about humanoids a lot like their
ceo and he keeps alluding to this customer i did a post about it uh last week for people who want
to guess but i it's it's either figure or tesla i don't know who it is but it's it's one of them
nobody else fits the description they gave and ralb taylor ceo on the call he was like
yeah it's it's a company that has said they're going to build pilots in 26 and go to full production in 27.
The only company I know that said that is Tesla.
So, like, Elon has explicitly said that.
He's like, we're going to do pilots for Optimus this year and we're going to do full production next year.
And Raul Patel said an unnamed leader in humanoid robotics who's going to do pilots this year
and production next year, we're their only partner for on-device chips.
That sounds like it's Tesla.
But even if it's not, even if it's figure, it doesn't matter
because that means they're penetrating the humanoid robotics vertical,
which I think is very interesting.
So, yeah, I raised that to like a 7.5% weighting last week, Synaptics.
Yeah, those AMCOR results should be out here momentarily.
I do just want to give everyone a little bit of a
warning. I'm going to be on the road over this next hour
a little bit, so we might get
a rug more likely towards in the
last half, but
no worries for the next 15-20 minutes, so
we'll be good there.
But Amcor,
stock market did close. Stock market did close green. You guys can always remember
if you see Sidney Sweeney
ringing the opening bell again,
market was green the last time it happened.
Correlation,
causation, who knows?
But it did happen.
Amcor and On Semiconductor were the only
two companies that really reported earnings here that I thought stood out to me
stay but let me know if you see anything yeah as the numbers do come out
and I will also try and get the move in front of me
AMK hour initial move up 2% in after hours, but I haven't seen anything quite there just yet
I know Stock Talk will want to dig into those a little bit deeper
sorry, Logical, did you get your chance to kind of give your full thoughts on the HIMSS?
I know, obviously, you kind of did share some thoughts there,
but it's an interesting one.
Obviously, we do also have Robinhood earnings coming up tomorrow.
I'm sure there's also a lot of other interesting smaller companies
that you're watching that are also reporting right now.
Is there anything standing out to you?
And then, sorry, I might even just, If Amcor numbers come out, feel free to jump
in. But yeah.
No, you're good. I don't have anything else to say
about HIMSS. I just didn't understand
why people are so bullish on that
business. Obviously, the numbers look
good, but it's a commodity business,
so I don't see it. But
in terms of other... I actually have
to go through my holdings and see what I have reporting
this week, because I'm not too sure. I've cut a lot of my holdings.
I think I have like 11 or 12 holdings right now.
Oh, I have this Global Foundries on Wednesday.
So that'll be interesting.
I know they had a lot of bull flow recently.
Chart looks good.
I am interested to see what Jumia reports.
I don't have a position right now.
It's been super volatile.
And I don't know.
Honestly, I feel like I'm probably going to regret
exiting that one.
Especially as it reclaimed the 100-day,
but still below the 50.
I think they're going to have a great report.
E-commerce is a very popular theme.
I mean, they put out monthly sales numbers. And their October and November
numbers were absolutely incredible. And the stock was even at a higher price. Unless something just
happened in December, that I'm not privy to. You know, the overall call flow has been pretty bullish
and like, I just don't know why this stock is even...
I don't know why it's been selling off.
I mean, it could just be in the growth,
just getting lumped in with everything.
But no position for now.
Just might as well, at this point,
wait to see what the earnings are like.
I imagine they'll be very good.
I've seen an initial move on Amcord lower in after hours than at least the notification that
i got but we will continue watching that one especially on these small midcat names
sometimes there's another piece of information that comes out anything like that but
of course initial move is lower there no well listen dude what i got a notification it's down
eight percent i look over it's
down 1% now it's even moving higher I was a fake news notification what
happened there star talk didn't just have one tick lower what do you say am
core I got it an undisclosed broker it sent me a notification that was not 8%
in after hours and I check and it's up a little now yeah top 1% maybe it was down 8% in after hours. And I check and it's up a little now. Yeah, it's up 1%. Maybe it was down for a second.
I don't know.
I'm looking at the results right now.
Amcor announced quarterly earnings of EPS of 69 cents per share.
There you go.
Knight, but do you have the numbers?
For Amcor, I can't find them just yet.
Yeah, big EPS beat.
56% EPS beat.
69 cents EPS versus 44 expected.
Slight beat on revenue, too.
1.89 versus 1.84.
That's just the top line results.
I need to see the details.
But I'm here.
Posted on the Wolf account.
Nice.
I'm sure we got a lot of M core
followers out there
ooh bad timing
one second
okay so that is definitely one that is moving all over the place now it's back down
to down two percent let's see if on semiconductor is also moving at all here
down 0.2 percent they're not a huge mover on on semiconductor logical you i've been seeing a lot of people talking about sofi i saw an interview with
anthony noto going around that he did uh stuff with future investing and uh tevis part of
investing i wonder if you watch that,
if you have any thoughts on SoFi, the lending space. I mean, I've always liked Lending Club.
That one has held its 200 day. I don't have a position in it right now. I'm still just
watching it to see how it'll react. But just because between, I always watch both SoFi and
Lending Club. SoFi is a more expensive stock. The growth is very high though.
So I think rightfully so, it makes sense that it's more expensive. That said, it's too expensive for
me to get interested in the stock. Technically, it looks horrible. It broke down and it is below
the 200 day. It's holding the 50 week, which is kind of interesting. But to be very honest,
this is all just one trade. The Palantir's, the Apple ovens, all these stocks are the same trade. So that's the problem. It's
all one factor momentum. And maybe eventually you'll be able to separate the ones that should
be up versus the ones that shouldn't. But mostly all of these stocks are very expensive fundamentally.
So it's not like anyone's going to stick their neck out and buy these stocks.
I'm not bearish so far. I just think I'm just generally not constructive on the momentum and
popular growth, leading growth names that are losing their 200 days, the Robin Hoods,
etc. in the near term. Because I don't know where the bottom is going to be. But I don't think any of these look like they've bottomed. Not convincingly anyway. I still really like Lending
Club. I think Lending Club is extremely cheap. It's trading at like 10 times this year's earnings,
growing bottom line, diluted EPS, GAAP diluted EPS at 50%. I don't have a position right now.
I'm going to probably feel foolish about not having a position
because it did find support at the 50-day, but I'm sorry, the 200-day.
But it also just looks weak, man.
And here's my other thought is if the fear in the market
is going to be driven by some sort of recession narrative,
then the lenders are going to get absolutely killed.
SoFi is going to get killed. Lending Club is going to get killed. I don't think we're going to get a recession. Absolutely not.
But it doesn't mean that the narrative can't become something like that. And then the sentiment
will take these stocks lower, in which case then they will become, then you would make like a
contrarian bet to say, no, we're not going to get a recession and I'll buy this stock at 20%, 30% lower.
So I'm kind of hoping I get a pitch like that because I don't think we're going to
recession.
Just like I didn't think we were going to get reflation as many people feared in like
March 2024 or whatever, when we constantly kept like, you know, having these spaces and
talking through like inflation is coming back.
It's like, no, it's not.
So yeah, when you have the mega caps putting a trillion dollars of CapEx,
I mean, that's just going to fuel GDP.
And so there's a lot of reasons to be constructive on the economy. I do think jobs numbers in the near term could be a little scary.
I think Friday was maybe a taste of that.
I think it was Friday.
Or was it Thursday? I don't remember. But yeah. So you asked me about SoFi. I think, yeah, it's just bunched with the popular
growth names that are not looking good technically. It's not cheap enough to stick your neck out.
And if we do get any sort of resurgence of some sort of rising unemployment narrative,
then the lenders are going to take a big hit,
I would think.
The Fed will be an interesting conversation
over the next little bit,
now that Jerome Powell,
now that the next Fed chair is probably going to be,
it'll be interesting to see how all of those l end up uh playing out here yep agree will be the
intriguing next couple days and weeks um yeah did we did we get your take on crypto earlier logical
no you didn't but um yeah i think obviously look if if you didn't think we would bounce after going straight nuking to 60,000, you're just bad at trading.
Like, I mean, here's the thing, though.
If you're good at trading, you probably thought we would have bounced at 69,000, but instead we broke right through it.
So it's been really tough.
It's been the most frustrating trade.
How many times have I been on here saying, I'm going to try?
times have I been on here saying I'm going to try. But every single time you tried to go long,
as soon as it reclaimed moving averages or like the nine cross the 21 EMA to the upside,
and you're like, okay, this is constructive. The next day you'd wake up and it's down five to 10%
and you would just be absolutely crushed. So in that sense, it did look, I think the,
whenever we were sitting in the 80s to 90,000 range for like a month or two, it did look like possibly it was going to be a bear flag to play out.
I think that's fair.
And it did play out that way.
But the other thought was, look, is this a bull market or not?
And so, you know, if you were right, then you would have, you from like $85,000 to probably $160,000.
That would be what you think would happen.
And in a situation where you can get like 50% to 100% upside and your downside is 10%, you kind of take that trade every single time.
But whenever it breaks below, whenever it would constantly give you that 5%, 10% dump, lose the moving averages again so easily, you had to cut that trade.
Because, you know, now the thesis for the trade was broken.
The technicals were broken.
So, yeah, I've steered clear of it since, you know, the last dump to 86,000 or whatever it was from 90.
90. And, you know, so I think that's why technicals help a lot, especially in something like
crypto that has very little fundamentals to go off of. Like, it's not like you're, you know,
even like with Lending Club, I just gave you a thesis on it right now, which is that, you know,
this thing trades at 10 times earnings growing 50% on the bottom line. It's very cheap, very cheap.
It's very cheap.
You can't make that thesis on Bitcoin.
So the difference there is Lending Club has valuation support.
There's a number that's cheap enough for the share price that it shouldn't go lower than there.
Because market participants, at least logical ones, would say,
oh, this is definitely a buy at $13 or whatever.
Because that would put it at like seven times earnings.
That's ridiculous for a 50% grower.
I think it's even now,
I'm not speaking to a small anything,
but even now it feels like it should probably be a no-brainer long.
But anyways, you get the idea.
Crypto has no valuation support,
no fundamentals to support it.
And if the technicals break,
then you have to steer clear.
And fortunately, that happened.
Where do I see us now?
I mean, if there isn't even liquidity to support some of these mega cap names,
which are absolutely the leaders of the most important economy ever,
which is this AI.
They're leading the AI narrative through all their capex.
And they're the winners of AI. And they can't even catch a bid. I don't think you should be holding
your breath for Bitcoin. You know, Google and Amazon and Meta and Microsoft, they deserve
to catch a bid way before Bitcoin does. Like, are people even excited about Bitcoin anymore?
I think that narrative is more or less dead. I don't, you know, excited about Bitcoin anymore? I think that narrative is
more or less dead. I don't think that, I'm not saying that it can't come back and I'll
gladly trade it to the upside, but there's just no excitement anymore like there was
a few months ago. It seems like we're still pegged to the four-year cycles. So I think
Ethereum is still interesting. I saw Tom Lee bought more, but man, that guy has incinerated shareholder value.
So yeah, I would just be patient.
Just like tech stocks right now, like crypto, you can even maybe say like, oh, people were saying,
we've decoupled, tech stocks have decoupled from crypto, but maybe crypto was
just kind of the leading indicator, as it often is. It's often like the leading indicator for risk on,
it's the leading indicator for expanding liquidity. And then, you know, it's been,
quote unquote, decoupling. But what if, you know, tech follows through to the downside?
I don't think so. It's not my base case. But, you know, it did foreshadow that there is a lot less risk on sentiment.
Because if there's enough liquidity flowing around, there's enough risk on sentiment, you wouldn't see crypto where it is.
But I think it's a little concerning that you broke right through 69k without any support.
I think you bouncing to 70k is a little concerning because I felt like 69k was basically the line in the sand.
I thought we would probably bottom there, at least for a little. Maybe this is the bottom
because we wick down to 60k and you hold 69, 70k and that's the level you wanted to hold to begin
with. Maybe. Or you get another leg lower and like seeing bitcoin in the 40s
wouldn't even be that crazy i mean it has really no value so i think your guess is as good as anyone's
stock talk was there anything else you saw on the uh i appreciate that logical by the way is
there anything you've seen on the amcor numbers that have been interesting yet? I'm thinking through it right now. It looks like a pretty solid report.
I mean, if these guys are capable of putting up nice EPS beats, delivering solid revenue prior to Peoria,
I think that's a really, really good sign because, again, the story is about Peoria.
And their operational efficiency efforts in the last four or five quarters are paying off.
Their operational efficiency efforts in the last four or five quarters are paying off.
I mean, they've now delivered one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten EPS beats in a row and pretty good ones too.
I mean, you started off with some of these smaller earnings per share beats 10, 12 percent.
And I mean, this quarter you beat EPS estimates by 57 percent, right?
They're expected to post 44.
They posted 69 cents
in earnings per share so that's pretty good um and i think it is demonstrating
pricing power uh going up a little bit for um for for advanced packaging and i think that's
a function of the bottlenecking so yeah they're not doing anything wrong. And that's a huge compliment for a company that is dumping money into what's going to be their most important facility ever.
So I like this report.
I have no complaints about it.
The jump in revenue that I want to see, I'm not expecting that right now. So I'm not going to put that burden on the company to say,
I expect you to put up big revenue growth because I know what the intention is there, right?
So I think when you own a stock
and you're trying to play out a thesis,
you have to know where the puck is.
You can't just expect every stock you own
to put up big top and bottom line beats every quarter just because you own you can't, you can't just expect every stock you own to put a big top and
bottom line beats every quarter, just because you own the stock and because you like the company,
like that's not the way investing works. Like you have to center yourself around the thesis and say,
at which points along the story do I expect X, Y, and Z to happen? And if X, Y, and Z happen at each
of those phases, then you, it's a green check of those phases, then it's a green check.
You know, it's like a green checkbox.
And so they've been executing well enough.
I mean, I even said this last quarter.
I mean, I think last quarter, if I remember correctly, the stock was down like 7% when
they printed the results.
And I just, I jumped into, and the stock was like 28, 29 bucks back then.
And I jumped into the discord and I was like, yeah, guys, this, this is a great report that they're doing everything they need to do.
It doesn't matter.
And then the stock reversed the next day and was up like 60% in the next month and then proceeded to double in the two months after that.
So the smart people that own these stocks know what to expect and when to expect it.
And a lot of times in markets, when you see like overreactions or underreactions, it's
a function of the shareholders that don't know what to expect and when to expect it.
Right.
And so they have pulled forward expectations and they get easily disappointed or they have
underwhelming expectations because they don't know what's going on. And then they get surprised by some, you know, thesis related tailwinds.
And in either of those cases, that's just a function of ignorance.
So for me, the stock's done very well, continues to do very well.
And they continue to execute on what they need to execute on.
And, you know, technically speaking, the chart looks great, obviously.
And if they continue to execute on the fundamental side
and the technical side and the thematic side,
then, you know, that's kind of what I'm looking for.
So, yeah, I think it's a very solid report for Mancoy.
I have no problems with it at all.
No red flags that I'm seeing.
I'm still reading through all the details but yeah I'll come back and circle circle back a little bit
we had a little more time to read into that
we had Credo Technology CRDO report and they're up like 15%
after ours
that's another data center name cables and whatnot
OnSemi also reported they're down 7%.
They were basically in line.
But Credo, man.
See, a chart like Credo gets me very constructive right now.
Because Credo lost the 200-day.
Fell down to $95.
I mean, this thing was down from 215 last earnings.
Down from 215 last earnings, just recently, like Thursday,
touched $95, and it's at $142.5.
Literally three days later, it's up 50%.
And it's an undercut and rally on that 200-day.
I was just going to say, logical, that chart is a great example of like,
your pattern traders will say head and shoulders, whatever.
And you had an obvious support level or net, whatever you want to call it.
And it broke.
The bearish pattern played out and then it reclaimed and now it's pushing back up.
That is extremely bullish, I think, honestly.
Yeah, that's what I'm saying.
It's a great example
of a bearish
move playing out and then reclaiming
within a bull market and
pushing back up higher. I think that's a really
good example. It's CRDO.
I might have to do some work on Credo
because the last time I checked,
it was actually
a pretty cheap stock
as much as it looks expensive on the surface.
Assuming they don't have any sort of disruption, this might be a buy.
And they beat on revenue.
Let me look this up a little bit.
Revenue growth is insane, actually.
It's probably like 200% or something.
Let me see.
Let's see.
Okay.
And they just reported?
Yeah, they just reported.
What's the stock doing after hours?
It's up 15%.
There you go.
Why can't I see this on their website?
I don't get it.
Am I tripping out?
Sometimes it takes a little bit for it to be uploaded to the website.
Just make sense.
See news and events.
Yeah.
It is.
I am getting ready to leave New York.
It is definitely very cold here.
It has been quite disgusting over the last couple days.
But I won't.
I'm just outside right now.
You can keep going on this one.
Ryan, I do want to hear more of your thoughts on numbers,
all that stuff that you were watching intraday stuff.
I know it's been quite a crazy market, Sydney Sweeney Open.
It's clear we were going to at least be a little bullish today.
I didn't even know that happened until this afternoon.
I think somebody made a joke.
Yeah, so bigger picture thoughts.
You had a big sell-off.
Didn't really have a true cap.
I mean, you obviously had software kind of just getting destroyed on some narrative stuff there.
But you didn't have like a huge reason to sell off.
But you did break structure.
So you had some technical stuff where you sold off.
You know, three harsh days of selling, once you broke the structure,
to me, it was fairly clear that you were going to get some follow through. You held up about
where you needed to, especially in the overnight. And Bitcoin was hitting that same area that I was
looking at, the 60K area. And then you had a nice bounce back day, which you needed after three
heavy days of selling. You usually get that on Friday. And then today had a nice bounce back day, which you needed after three heavy days of selling.
You usually get that on Friday. And then today you dipped into some of that value and held
immediately and pushed up higher. Sure, Stock Talk will tell you the daily nine EMA, we closed
right above it on the NASDAQ. And then, of course, you go to the S&P and the broader market,
And then, of course, you go to the S&P and the broader market, IWM, the Dow, all of those charts all look good and they look fine.
RSP made a new all-time high.
So the underlying workings of the market are still very strong.
I still think that the market needs its leader to really go anywhere.
market needs its leader to really go anywhere. But with tech not really leading the market and
with software kind of getting hurt right now, this market is still extremely strong when you
start piecing together the different pieces of it. So I mean, that's where I'm at when I look at
what we did. And if you had to ask me what to do tomorrow, tomorrow I'm like, no clue from a
trading standpoint, no clue um we didn't really
get enough dip on the like longer term swing stuff that uh like that i really was excited
to deploy anything yet um i'm sorry we're right back to kind of where we were can i just cut you
off real quick these credo numbers are preliminary numbers but they came in, their preliminary revenue for this quarter is 404,
like basically 406 million. Estimate was 340 million. They just beat their estimate by 20%.
That's insane. Sorry, I had to say that. I think this might be a buy. This doesn't make sense.
What the hell's going on? Why are they preliminary numbers though?
That would be my next question.
I don't think they're reporting earnings till like later or something.
I don't think they might be like a, they're like a conference or something.
I think they probably just got it.
The earnings date was estimated for March.
I think they probably just realized that their stock is dying and they wanted to like kill
some of the narratives out there because some of the narratives are that like people aren't using their specific cables anymore
or something like that but and they just put out this to say go screw yourself but it looks like
they just put out revenue numbers but that's a hell of a beat and it looks like expect sequential
revenue growth in the...
So looking towards the end of fiscal year 2026,
this is about to be Q3 pre-live numbers,
and into fiscal 2027,
Credo expects sequential revenue growth in the mid-single digits.
Okay, so to more than 200% year-over-year growth
in the current fiscal year.
Okay, so they're going to do...
Okay, 200% this year.
I mean, they're already on pace to do that,
that's not a big deal.
But then they're saying looking towards the end of it
and into fiscal 2027,
Capito expects sequential revenue growth
in the mid single digits?
That doesn't sound good.
That sounds horrible.
So maybe this is a bad report. Sorry.
This is just a little confusing for them to say this.
That is how it is meant to be sometimes, some companies.
I've heard good things just in other conversations.
I think my friend Butters, I saw him down there.
He's mentioned good things just in other conversations. I think my friend Butters, I saw him down there. He's mentioned good things about them as well.
So I may have to dig into that one a little bit further.
I would love for anybody who knows more about this to tag me in the comments and say what
is going on here because I don't get it.
They're going to grow 200% year over year in the current fiscal year.
But what does that mean that they're saying looking into the next year, they're
expecting sequential revenue growth in the mid single digits?
It's a little confusing.
Ryan, I'm curious if there was any other big news.
I know you're always active on the news, watching it, getting very close to it, maybe even though
you don't trade a lot of single stocks.
Was there any interesting stories that really stood out to you or anything that was more
on the micro stock level that was standing out, moves, anything like that?
Most of the day was fairly quiet. more on the micro stock level that was standing out, moves, anything like that?
Most of the day was fairly quiet.
There were some interesting headlines, you know, that came out that,
I don't think it was anything earth-shattering,
but some stuff that, like, I always, you know, follow back on at the end of the day,
like the Google and Anthropic thing this morning, data center stuff going on,
some continuation of just a lot of the information we got last week from the different earnings reports. You saw Broadcom still catching a bit on all the spin that Google, for one,
and the others are doing. That was the only really thing. There was some housing stuff that there,
you know, it was political theater with some of the housing stuff right now. That was really the
only things. I mean, we even, we got some kind of tape bomb in the middle of the day on no news at all so it was
kind of an interesting day on the on the news side of things i saw trump and president g are set up
for um their summit in april first week of april hopefully hopefully it's not april 1st little
april fools day hey, who knows?
That would be a Trump type of thing to do, I guess.
But no, I think some of the Chinese stocks got to, you know,
we're trying to catch a little bit when that news started coming out this afternoon.
So, I mean, we'll see.
We'll see how it goes. But today was just, to me, just a little bit of a continuation day of the bounce back
after a harsh sell-off.
And outside of that, some individual names, obviously, there's some stories developing on things here and there,
like Amcor reporting today.
So there's some individual names that I think you can dig into a little bit further.
But to me, it was broad market.
I mean, the underlying of the market, just to reiterate the point earlier, if you look at RSP, the equal weight S&P, and you look at the S&P itself or small caps,
even in the Dow, like you're seeing a lot of strength across the broader market.
And then tech itself is just bouncing back from a harsh sell-off and you're right back
to where you were.
So nothing's changed.
I mean, since October, November,
and the NASDAQ side of things,
nothing's really changed.
It's still, the pain trade's still sideways there until we get some leaders to lead the market again.
But it's still healthy in the overall scheme of things.
So I don't see any cause for panic.
It's just buy at the bottom of the range,
sell at the top of the range, find individual
stocks and themes that are hot and still continuing their trend.
And don't look for stocks that we're still in a, you know, pretty, what I would call
a raging bull market, even, even though it's gone sideways for a little bit, we're still
in a very strong market.
I'm not looking at charts that are trading below their 200-day, 200-week moving average in a spot like this,
except for maybe if there's some software names or something that you really like that you think just the narrative's beat up on.
That's the only thing I'm kind of keeping an eye on, like your ServiceNow's or something like that.
But things that have just been down constantly, your CRMs, your Adobes. I don't even care to look at those charts.
I care to see what charts are doing well.
It was interesting to see some of the crypto
names back like hood
with earnings on Thursday.
Or I'm sorry, earnings tomorrow.
Let me double check that.
Yeah, tomorrow after the close.
Hood getting a nice bounce back.
Coins on Thursday, that's what it was.
Both of those two getting a bounce back. You almost wonder Thursday, that's what it was. Both of those two getting a
bounce back, you almost wonder like, okay, if crypto can, you know, at least push up and
consolidate for the next little while, when people look at maybe some of the numbers under the,
you know, under the surface for hood and coin and say, okay, maybe this is overdone a little bit.
Maybe it's not as bad as feared. Maybe you get a positive reaction from the earnings that way.
So I think a couple of those names can be interesting at this time.
I'm sure somebody will look at the miners and all those stuff. I don't follow those quite as much,
but I think, you know, hood and coin, I think are both kind of interesting here as crypto itself
is trying to bounce back. And, you know, you look at even the Bitcoin chart, I heard you guys
talking about a little bit. I mean, it hit where I wanted it to hit.
You got an instant $10,000 bounce out of it.
The daily nines right over your head and some previous highs are right over your head.
But, yeah, I think you probably backtest last year's low would be my thought next to like $74,000, $75,000 on Bitcoin.
And then the true backtest would take you back up a little bit higher into like the 80 area, which the way you had the snap down
and this kind of somewhat snap back, I wouldn't be surprised to see that.
I would probably bet more on that than I would downside right here.
But the nice thing is you don't have to bet on anything if you don't want to.
But I do think Coin and hood could be interesting um reporting this
week as crypto is kind of bouncing so kind of maybe coming out of the depths a little bit
was there a bmr mr mr beast headline today evan or something i can't remember what i heard there
was mr beast buying a fintech and i got a notification that i was having some technical
difficulties like i said on the road this one might close at any time. I
apologize. But there was a Mr. Beast buying a FinTech or something like that. BMNR now
owns a piece of a FinTech, who knows. But yeah, that was the story today. I don't think
anything really moved the stock at all. It was very purely just the, they're just calling it an Ethereum proxy.
The other interesting thing I've been monitoring
is this jobs report that's coming out.
I mean, tomorrow morning we have retail sales.
I think that could be very, very interesting to watch.
But I was kind of watching the jobs report.
And the CPI on Friday too, right?
Correct. Yeah, CPI on Friday.
NFP is going to be on Wednesday morning.
So instead of last Friday,
it got moved to this Wednesday morning
from the government shutdown.
But between those two, and there's some like little rumblings, like they're
kind of floating some pieces out there that the jobs report may not be good, which it seems like
they're kind of front running that news. So maybe it's like not as bad as feared in that scenario
as well. But I did notice like some of your rate sensitive stocks and your IWM type of, you know, they were kind of catching a little bit more of a bid today.
And if you look, the probabilities shifted just a little bit.
Some of the like for like the April meeting, you're starting to get a little bit of a shift there.
Not a big one, but just over the last week or so, you've pretty much moved up, you know, from like less than a 25% chance to about a 33% chance.
For example, looking at April.
So maybe you get some love on the rate-sensitive stocks a little bit.
Maybe some of your small caps and stuff or your KREs or your home-building type of stocks.
Maybe you get some stuff there.
Because just the way that they're kind of floating out the information that maybe it's not good. You're kind of seeing people already try to price in like, Hey, maybe we get a, an extra
little rate cut in here somewhere. So I thought that, that piece has been kind of interesting
over the last, really, I saw it some this weekend where it started kind of trickling out.
where it started kind of trickling out.
Stock talk, any of that interesting for you?
We have a lot of macro data coming up this week.
Yeah, I mean, it matters.
Yeah, is it?
Am I having my eyes on anything specifically?
No, but yeah, I mean, overall, the macro picture does matter.
Yeah, there have been some incremental,
I hate calling them red flags
because then it just feels like
I'm trying to forecast something.
But there have been some incremental flashes
of weakness, I guess,
in some of the economic data
over the last six or seven months.
So you can't ignore that.
It just becomes tricky to like make a claim economically, like just to make a claim because economic data is very fluid. You know, you can
have really, really weak months in, in some category of economic data and then a massive
rebound in the following
quarter or the following month. That happens all the time with economic data. There are seasonal
factors. There are a lot of wealth effect factors that have to do with not only where the markets
are at, but where home prices are at, how liquid the housing market is, you know,
rates of perceived inflation. All of these are really fluid factors that can really fuel or
detriment economic activity, and they can do it rapidly, you know. And so that it's really
hard to like, and this is why I'm not making fun of economists, but this is why economists can't predict anything.
Right?
Like, PhD-level economists aren't traders.
I mean, there are probably some.
Right?
But there are economists on Wall Street.
That's not what I'm saying. But the vast majority of these guys who are, you know, the most knowledgeable when it comes to economic data and macro data and how to perceive it and where it should be moving and, you know, when it's healthy, when it's not healthy.
I mean, if there was predictive value in that, then they would be most of them would be millionaires and billionaires, right, and not be teaching at universities.
So my perception on economic data is that it's too fluid to make claim.
It's too fluid to make actionable claims.
And as a consequence of that, what I mostly care about is the impact to liquidity.
is the impact to liquidity.
And that's mostly informed,
at least from the Fed's standpoint,
with rate cuts,
but it doesn't do a whole lot
when you cut 25 bps at a time.
So we're not really even in a period right now,
monetary policy-wise,
where the Fed is operating with a fire hose, right?
I mean, even if they are going to continue to cut,
they're going to continue to cut incrementally.
And so you can't look to cut expectations and be
like oh it's gonna bring in some flood of liquidity when rates get cut 25 bps
but one thing I think you can do is say where is the path of rates headed and
that I think is a driver of liquidity right like where the expected path of
rates are headed and how people react to that. So that's what I care about the most. And how does economic data tie
to that is how is it going to impact the rate, the path of cuts, right? Are we going to have
a free and clear sort of green light to rates going a percent or a percent and a half lower
a year from now? If we do, I think that's a tailwind for the economy obviously now the x factor which is what everyone asks themselves at this point in
the cycle is will the labor market break in between now and then and we just had a really
rough challenger report last week we had mostly rough jobs data in the last three or four weeks
of jobs today that we've had so not often great start to the year, but if you can see some stabilization there, that'd be
a positive sign. I hope that if we don't see stabilization there, it moves the Fed back maybe
a little bit more rapidly, maybe a 50 bips cut next instead of a 25 if that labor data weakness
persists. But that's really where I think you need to be focused is labor data is going to be the main driver of the rate path.
And you want to see an uninhibited rate cut path.
That's what I think the markets care about.
And I think it's part of the reason why you had a negative reaction to Warsh, because at first people were like, OK, maybe he's not as uninhibited of a rate cut path as we thought, because he's a very nuanced history as a member of the Fed.
Right. He's not the guy that's always dovish or always hawkish. So I think that that played a
little bit of a shock factor in markets. But that's really all I care about is how is the
weight of economic data going to move the needle when it comes to the rate path, not just the next
meeting, but the path. And that's what I think markets want too. Markets want predictable outcomes,
relatively easy policy, but not too easy.
And they want a responsive Fed.
They don't want an idle or complacent Fed.
The market's never like that.
They want a Fed that is reactive to the data,
that acknowledges the data.
Like when the new Fed minutes come out, the market wants the Fed to acknowledge changes in the data.
Because otherwise we're like, what are we looking at?
And there have been points where during Fed meetings we've seen negative reactions because the Fed either brushed over or refused to acknowledge important economic data points.
or refuse to acknowledge important economic data points.
So I imagine in the next Fed meeting,
there'll be a little bit more focus on the employment risk,
especially after the jobs reports we had to kick off the year.
Now is that gonna drive a big change in monetary policy?
I think that depends on how weak the data is headed
into that next meeting.
Cause we even had blips of weak economic data last year
and the year before actually we had one or two prints.
And whenever somebody sees a bad print, they go, okay, we had one or two prints. And whenever somebody sees a bad
print, they go, okay, well, this is where it starts. Now we're going to start seeing real
labor market softness, and then that's going to bleed over to the rest of the economy,
and then stocks are going to start faltering. And that's a fair concern to have, because if you look
at bouts of labor market weakness, historically, it does lead to compression and everything,
asset prices and everything else. So you don't want to see that.
But we also can't just get out of the puck here and say, OK, you know, bad start to January.
And that means the economic data for the rest of the year is going to be bad.
I wouldn't go that far.
But you don't want to see continued labor market weakness.
And if you do, you want to see an immediately responsive Fed.
The worst case scenario would be we get more rough data over the next couple of months. And at the
next meeting, the Fed maintains the stance of sort of being relatively neutral on the balance of
risks and maybe doing a 25 bps cut or no cuts at all. That's what you don't want to see. You don't
want to see that happening in an environment where there is further weakness. Now, if you don't want to see you don't want to see that happening in an environment where there is further weakness now if you don't see it if you don't see further labor market weakness you see stabilization
in in employment numbers and in the jobs data going into the next meeting and then they keep
their policy stance that's fine you know so it it's it's nuanced it's not like you know one way
or the other it's interesting to think uh like also even with ai they're perpetually kind of against the eight
ball at least in how you're kind of seeing stuff over the next couple years with jobs
it'd be interesting to see how they react to that um
stock talk in general this market has been we i joked about it a little earlier but you've
been talking about this a lot these friday stick saves have continued it continued these last
couple days the market has every single time it's shown weakness there's been this friday six save
now we maybe we are a little bit range bound in a couple areas there's been a couple all-time highs
stocks have been doing well um but you know parts of the market that have been doing well. But parts of the market have been struggling a little bit.
Parts there are maybe more in
range-bound markets is what we could say there.
Do you have any thoughts
about how the market was reacting
Friday, even today, a little bit of follow-through?
Yeah.
Is it just kind of a bounce off
of weakness, expecting lower?
Yeah, I only care about one thing um when it
comes to indexes which is structure and when they break structure is there an immediate attempt to
repair it or no that's all i care about that's all i've cared about for the last 10 years when
it comes to indexes and it worked to me it's a very simple perspective but it is the best
perspective in my view it takes out all the noise. It takes out all this like subjective analysis.
It takes out all like your desire to reach across,
you know,
multiple technicals and try to figure out what's going on.
Like are the markets holding structure?
Are they not?
And they are.
So until that changes,
it's,
it's,
it's,
it's tricky to get like defensive, at least for me it is.
I mean, weekly structure last week was on the verge of a major breakdown
across most indexes, and the Qs saved themselves.
The Qs saved the 21-week EMA to close last week.
And then to kick things off, we're already back above the 90 EMA.
I mean, we gave up 100 a day four sessions ago.
We're back above the 90 E.m. And we gave up 100 a day four sessions ago. You know, we're back above the 90 a.m. in the Qs today. Now, does that mean, like, there's not
going to be any more CHOP or that there's not going to be any more, like, 3% or 4% downloads
in the indexes every couple of weeks or every couple of months? No, I'm not saying there's not
going to be volatility, but structure is holding. And as long as structure is holding, you just keep
looking for individual stock opportunities. That's how I operate. And when structure is broken down and the S&P 500 is
trading below the 100 a day or consistently trading below the 50 day or building resistance
with moving averages overhead curling down, then I'm like, okay, I'm not going to open a bunch of
new positions. And maybe I'll whittle down my, my exposures, but just, we're just not there yet. And, and, and a lot of people like to call it early because
they see these breakdowns happening, but look how many fake outs there have been in this market.
I mean, you pull up the weekly chart, the daily chart, whatever of spy QQQ, pick your poison.
You go through it for the last nine months since the april lows there have been
a lot of fake outs a lot you know we lost the 21 ema on the queues in august of last year then we
lost it again in late august so early august and late august we have double forfeit of the 21 ema
that could have potential potentially start looking like a double top what happened we
consolidated for about five sessions then lost it a third time.
Okay. And on that third forfeit, you lost a 50-day two. Imagine how many people got short there.
That's a triple rejection off the highs, three 21 EMA forfeits in a row, a 50-day breakdown,
right? Distributive volume profile. This is August and September of last year. What happened after that? You had 10 green sessions in a row, okay?
To rip the indexes back up to 600, right?
Then what happened?
Consolidation, another forfeit in October of last year, okay?
Then what happened?
Consolidation ripped to 640, okay?
Then another forfeit in November of last year.
And a double forfeit that time, too.
You lost the 21 and the 50 and the 100 from November to December
when there was a carnage in momentum.
Then what happened? We bottomed at 580 and ripped to 630.
I mean, at this point, you know this market is going to fake you out on the daily chart.
You know it already.
It's done it consistently for nine months.
Like literally every other month we get a 21 EMA breakdown.
So that just can't be your cue for being defensive.
It can't.
I mean, they'd be ignorant of the data, right?
So that's our weekly 21 stock talk.
Weekly 21 stock talk, that weekly 21 that you're mentioning here, we have not closed a candle underneath the weekly 21 since April 21st of last year.
That weekly 21 that you're mentioning here,
And so that's why I've flipped.
And we opened right on it today.
We opened on it, pushed down a little bit, and then flew back up to the weekly nine.
Yep.
Yeah, so that weekly chart, I think, is much more reliable here. You look at their weekly chart and then you say to yourself,
clearly the daily chart is faking us out.
The daily chart is
consistently faking out
traders with a shorter term perspective
it's hard
to get the ball moving
performance wise if you're susceptible
to being faked out by that
every single time it's really gonna it'd be hard it's gonna be hard to do that like i'm as of today
i'm back up to what 49.7 percent year to date and that's just because i didn't sell all my shit when
we're breaking down you know and now the lot this rebound of the last two days where everything i
own is up that's a huge performance ad you know When you're long with options on a bunch of names
and they're all ripped two days in a row, that's a huge performance.
You miss out on those two-day rebounds in the indexes.
You miss out on half of them for the year.
Your performance is going to get cut in half or by more than that.
And so you can't miss those days.
And the people that miss those, those rebound days,
those 15, 16% days where everything's up. I mean, Friday, everything was ripping. Everything was
up 15, 16, 70%. If you miss those days, that's a huge detriment to your performance, huge detriment
to your ability to compound. Um, so I, I, I try not to let myself miss those days and even last week i was like i was staring at the
queues and spy going into the the close of last week saying come on like don't you know let's see
if you can get a stick save again and they did they both did i mean spy didn't even need it um
but spy at the lows on friday came all the way down into the 21 ema on the weekly right and then
closed above the nine you know and the queues came all the way down and then closed above the 21 EMA on the weekly, right? And then closed above the nine, you know, and the
Qs came all the way down and then closed above the 21. And so, and, and look at, by the way,
I always talk about this. I'm a very much an anti-rotation guy. I think it's, it's, it's
silliness. I think 10 years ago, we, it was a very valid conversation to talk about rotation
and bouts of rotation and bouts of strength, even years ago to be honest even in 22 20 22 23 21 the markets have changed so much in the last four or five
years in terms of the way exposure is is being allocated the short-term instruments that are
being used um and like i just don't think you can do that anymore. I don't think like what stood out today for those who watch the market, what should have stood out to you today?
What was down transportation, financials, staples, consumer discretionary housing and health care?
We're down today. What was up? All the shit that's been up for three years.
all the shit that's been up for three years.
Right.
And so last year,
last week,
right.
And the week before when we saw the selling and momentum in tech,
what was up those sectors,
transport,
healthcare staples,
right.
I've made this point a hundred times and I'm going to continue to make it
every time we have moments like this in the market,
there is not enough room in those industries for the liquidity that is in tech.
There's not enough room. The market caps are not big enough. Leading companies in those sectors
are not big enough companies to absorb the liquidity, the hundreds of billions of dollars of liquidity that has been dumped into tech.
There's not enough room.
You'd be buying out all those companies and, you know, driving them to even higher P's than the trading at which some of them are already even trading pretty expensive.
But there's not enough room.
But there's not enough room.
So the way the market is going to work in an environment where the S&P 500 is this heavily weighted tech is like this.
There's going to be moments of weakness in momentum and tech in which you will see relative strength in transport and financials and consumer discretionary.
But they won't last.
The rotations will not last.
They'll go on for a week, sometimes maybe even two weeks. And then as soon as the spy and the
cues are on the verge of a breakdown, the markets are at an inflection point to either decide,
we either save the S&P 500 here or we don't.'t and if you don't then the selling proliferates to those
industries that were viewed reviewed as perceived safety because all of the money is in the sb 500
and tech that's where all the money is okay you add up the tech market capitalizations and compare
them to the rest of the market and it's it's it's hilarious so yeah this might be no
resimplication but if you're going to be long in this market you belong the stuff that's holding
the market up in my view and there's going to be weeks there's going to be even months sometimes
where there's a lot of relative strength in the stuff that is quote unquote value or like legacy industry,
but it won't last. And those charts can continue to look good and go up as long as the S&P 500
does. Like I'm not saying transports can't do well this year. They absolutely can't.
In fact, all the charts on those major indexes still look good. Like XLF, XTN, XLY, they all
look good. Okay. So I'm not saying short them.
What I am saying is, is if you want those indexes to go up, the broader market has to go up. And
for the broader market to go up, tech has to go up. There's just not enough room. And so,
and there's no way that the hundreds of billions of dollars in speculative interest that has been
dumped into technology is ever going to go to those sectors. It's just not going to happen.
Right. That's the allocator bias that people have sometimes.
They like assume everyone is like a uniform,
unbiased allocator.
It's like this underlying assumption
in market analysis that's very wrong.
They're not at all to be true.
Most funds are specialized or focused in a certain area
and certainly most individual investors are.
And now in an environment where, you know, retail is making 30 to 40% of the liquidity at any given time, that matters. It matters that
investors have discretion because do you think the 20 to 30 year old speculators who now are dumping
tens of billions of dollars into the market, Do you think they give a shit about those sectors
or are ever going to invest in those sectors?
And so you lose the retail angle.
And then on the hedge fund angle, on the specialty side,
there's, again, not enough market cap
for these bigger funds to get involved.
There's just not enough liquidity.
And so the market is living in a death death or life by tech um regime right now and
if tech dies the market dies you know and if the tech narrative gets bad enough the market rolls
over like all these other industries that have been performing like in in tandem with tech like
aerospace and defense i think is a good example because that's traditionally viewed as like a legacy industry right aerospace and defense has
been a fantastic place to be invested the last two years okay but that sector would not see that
level of speculation if it wasn't for tech holding up over that period the same thing goes for any of
the other speculative sectors nuclear space and satellites whatever at the center of all these
trades is the liquidity that's being produced by the ai trade whatever. At the center of all of these trades is the liquidity that's being produced by the AI
trade.
That is at the center of all of these trades.
And that even extends to private markets, by the way.
You look at private market valuations.
Why are private market valuations at their highest ever?
Because there's so much liquidity in the system surrounding the AI and tech trade.
I mean, who's led these valuation rounds to the moon over the last few years?
Open AI and Anthropic, right?
Their valuations have gone up by whatever, X thousands of percent over the last few years, opening I and Anthropic, right? Their valuations have gone up by whatever X thousands of percent over the last five years.
And, you know, look, you look at companies like SpaceX, that's a tailwind for them.
You know, I think in a vacuum without this AI theme, I don't think SpaceX would be trading
at the valuation that they are today.
They're not really an AI company.
Well, I guess now they are after the acquisition of XAI.
But prior to that, not an AI company, right? They're making space tech hardware. And they too, in private markets,
benefited from this huge surge of liquidity of speculators in AI technology. So
I think that's the way the market's going to continue to operate for the foreseeable future.
And I don't see anything overtaking AI anytime soon as the area of interest. Like,
I mean, maybe if quantum becomes like a really big thing in the next four or five years, maybe,
but for now, like what is going to supplant AI, artificial intelligence as like the industry of
interest that everyone wants to speculate and everyone wants to invest in? I don't think
anything can supplant it right now. And so as long as that
remains the case, most of the market capitalization will be attributed to that. Most of the speculation
will be attributed to that. Most of the multiple expansion will be attributed to that. And
that tailwind applies both in public markets and private markets. So yeah, I think you have to be
invested in AI. You have to. I think you have to have exposure to it
in some way, shape, or form.
And I think you have to understand
that there are going to be
these fake-out moments in the market
where it looks like rotation is happening
and it looks like it's time
to abandon the AI trade.
And more often than not,
they're going to be very,
very short-lived moments.
And so that's kind of my perspective
on the overall markets right now.
That was a good take right there.
I appreciate it.
And honestly, I mostly agree.
A lot of those other sectors, when they become super popular, at least in this last market,
it's become when they can be the bottom X for AI, such as energy, such as the grid,
all that stuff there.
There are a lot of batteries.
There's a lot of kind of different conversations there around AI, but that is the underlying
center of all of it.
I do have a hard cutoff here coming up in three minutes at 5 p.m. Eastern.
I do want to remind people,
you should make sure you are following the amazing speakers up here.
Shout out to that Wolf Defense account up here.
Shout out to that Wolf Financial account that is up here.
A lot of great content going up on both of those.
There was a live stream with ticker symbol U
talking about NVIDIA's earnings that we have coming up
on that Wolf Financial, that blue wolf up here chat to logical was a great addition on the spaces
today you should definitely go in check out the stuff that he's doing um i see you on a bunch of
other spaces and putting out a lot of great content and obviously his stock talk weekly
um if you guys enjoy what he's doing make sure you're following his page the link to his group
is the link in his bio obviously a lot of stuff going on there.
Raising prices soon.
Sorry for that background noise.
But yeah, no, I appreciate everyone for joining in Stock Talk.
Any final words?
Nope.
Keep on keeping on.
I think this market still has a lot of opportunity.
There's a lot of good looking charts,
a lot of charts above all their moving averages.
above all their moving averages, like, you know, focus on those names. And I think,
Like, you know, focus on those names.
you know, you don't have to be an expert in everything to make it in this market,
but I think you do have to find a couple of areas that you understand well,
that you can actually bring your conviction to bear and make it useful to you. Because,
you know, there's a lot of stocks last year that there were periods and moments where I
wanted to sell them for one reason or another. And then, you know,
I'd go revisit my thesis and I'm like, dude, all of this is still intact.
And I held them. And those are some of my best performing stocks of last year,
you know, Amcor, ENS, VIV, which I still own all of them, you know?
And even this year, like, you know,
I'm in some names I'm not traditionally in like GLDD and panel, which have done great.
I mean, GLDD at 16 today, panel is almost at nine bucks.
Like, you know, these stocks continue to trend up, too.
And there have been moments or flashes in the pan where the liquidity sort of frightens me.
And then I just go back and read my thesis.
And I'm like, nah, dude, like, what am I worried about?
Like, I understand this really well.
I've done the work. And that, to me, that's how you make money in markets. Like after
all the bullshit, and there's a lot of stuff that's like preached about like what your strategy
should be. There's a lot of courses out there on like how you should trade, how you invest at the
end of the day, to me, it's just a three-step thing. It's research conviction. And then your
ability to manage those positions with your research, conviction, and then your ability
to manage those positions with your conviction in hand, wielding your conviction. And you can
never get there if you don't do the work. It's really, really hard. You could buy stocks because
I like them. Sure, go buy it. Or because Logical or Sam or whoever. Some of you might listen to
shows and be like, oh, I like that idea. I want to buy it. Sure, that's fine.
But the difference maker is holding the stocks for the right amount of time and knowing when the thesis is still valid or when it's breaking down or when there's an issue with what you
thought was going to happen.
That's when the money is either made or lost, right?
And if you listen to investors like Buffett, it was some, one of their favorite things to say is like, you know, Buffett, when he's asked,
was asked what his biggest mistake was always selling something too early. He never cited
something about like, I bought the wrong stock or whatever. It's always like, I sold that too early
because I knew what was going to happen. And I saw the thesis and I still sold it too early.
And to me, that's always been to be, if I go back
through the years, like, yeah, I've had, everyone has losers. Like I've had big losers and small
losers and whatever, but my biggest regrets always at the end of the year are any given year
are, Oh man, I should have held that, you know, or, Oh dude, like why'd I get shaken out of that
stock? Like last year i had bloom
energy at 20 bucks you know i sold it in like the 30s uh and i had like talent energy in like the
200s right and i sold it in like the 300s so there are stocks that like i look back on and i'm like
okay i sold it too early and that's okay because my performance is still fantastic either way but
um and it is part of the game to an extent but but that's always. Cause my performance is still fantastic either way, but, um, and it is
part of the game to an extent, but, but that's always been my biggest regret. And when I listened
to like the best investors of all time, Drucken, Miller, Lynch, Buffett, that's what they talk
about all the time, which is like, ah, dude, you know, I did the work on this and there's some
market conditions changed or whatever. And then I sold it and, you know, it proceeded to double
and in the next two years or whatever. And that's, easy thing to get caught up in. So just know what you own. I know that's cliche.
I know that's, I say that all the time, but I mean that like seriously, like actually know
what you own and understand the industries and understand who the other players are and what
the margins should look like, what the revenue should look like, what the growth rate should
look like. Get a real grasp on that. And I think you'll be fine in these kinds of markets, but always important to manage risk
too. Obviously a lot of people learned that these last couple of weeks being in speculative names
with too much size or too much short-term options exposure, timing exactly when something is going
to run is really hard. And, you know, a lot of people want to get rich quick. So they put
themselves in weekly options or monthly options or whatever, trying to guess that.
But that's a really, really hard game to play.
Instead, just do the research, build conviction.
And if you want to use options, use really, really far dated options that are closer to
the money, that give you some more flexibility if there is volatility along the way.
And, you know, have a healthy amount of your portfolio and shares.
I always do.
I always have 80 to 90% of my portfolio and shares at a given time. That helps stand through the volatility as well. So you're not
getting knocked off a cliff when the markets are bouncing around, but try to integrate some of those
things in your process. But at the end of the day, do the work. Don't rely on other people to do the
work for you. Even if there's an idea that someone else mentions, go do the work, research what
they're saying about it. Try to understand it for yourself. Because once you have conviction built in your brain, the whole game becomes easier, like everything
becomes less stressful. Like, I don't remember the last time I was stressed about markets,
honestly. Like I had a pretty bad drawdown. The last couple weeks, I had bad drawdowns last year
too. And it just doesn't stress me out because I'm just like pretty confident all the stocks in my
book. And so I know volatility
is part of the game. I know there's going to be wicks up and down in performance. Um, but once
you kind of get a grasp on that markets become not easy, but much more simple and much less
stressful and just becomes a more, more satisfying and pleasant game to play. And, uh, that's kind
of where I am. Like I wake up every Monday, very excited about the markets. And, you know, I end every Friday, very excited about the next Monday. So if you don't feel that
way about stocks and feel that way about markets and feel like you're pulling your hair out all
the time, it's probably because you don't really know what you own. And you're sort of acting like
a chicken with its head cut off, which is what the vast majority of traders and investors do.
They're just running around looking for the next hot thing, looking for the next FOMO industry to move into, when in reality, it's just about finding smart
exposures to secular themes, understanding the valuation, understanding how to read the charts,
and using those factors to monitor the position month by month or quarter by quarter. So
month or quarter by quarter.
So if you do that,
if you do that, you'll be fine. It'll be just fine.
you'll be fine.
It'll be just fine.
Appreciate you, sir.
Tire Space is recorded.
I am late now.
Have a great one, team.
Follow speakers.
Shout out to Stock Talk,
Logical,
the Wolf Accounts,
Wolf Defense,
Wolf Financial.
I see Sam Solid requesting.
He's great as well.
He will catch you all
same time, same place tomorrow.
Robin Hood Live Earnings.
I will be asking a question on the call. Just let me know what I should ask. I appreciate you all same time, same place tomorrow. Rob and her live earnings. I will be asking a question on the call.
Just let me know what I should ask.
I appreciate you all.
