STOCK MARKET TALK

Recorded: July 10, 2025 Duration: 2:00:27
Space Recording

Short Summary

In a dynamic discussion, participants highlighted significant trends in the crypto and biotech sectors, including bullish movements in Tesla calls and biotech stocks like XBI. The conversation also touched on strategic partnerships and growth opportunities in the eVTOL and defense industries, showcasing a vibrant market landscape.

Full Transcription

What is up? What is up? Everybody, how are we doing today?
Team is having behind the account. I'm just going to try and get my account in here. Emp is on the road traveling. We got a lot of squad on the road. Logically, how are we doing today, team? It is Evan behind the account. I'm just going to try and get my account in here.
Emp is on the road traveling.
We got a lot of squad on the road.
Logical, how are you doing, sir?
Good, brother.
Can't complain.
You were in here instantly, and I appreciate you for that.
Dude, I just bought some Tesla calls in this last hour.
I was doing a space with Prospero, and we were looking at it,
and I see Mike coming up.
All the signals on
there looks so beautiful and the reason you don't buy it is because Musk is
gonna come out here and tweet something maybe possibly but it's it's really
funny you say that because I'm sure stock talk will comment on it once he's
up here but he also just took some Tesla calls like an hour ago or something and I bought Tesla calls
I was on a space I bought them
20 minutes ago I got into the
310 weeklies
I hear you're in it a little bit
I use a lot
going on sorry
but I'll take all the
credit for it then logical
yeah that's funny though
are you doing today though sir you watch anything this market
i'm watching a lot of things man let me check my watch honestly let's let's be real that's a
rhetorical question we're about to fucking hit it i heard biotech was doing good this morning
someone said that i checked xbi and it wasn't moving that much, but someone was saying it was going. Well, XBI was up 3.7%
yesterday. So it had a monster day yesterday. XBI right now, new highs a day. It's basically
headed to highs a day. So even when it started off red, so red to green is pretty bullish for
the bios. Love to see that. Yeah, let me check my individual bio names and see how they're holding up arqt our cutest biotherapeutics up seven percent pushing new highs a day today
i've been talking about that one for like so long and um it's just been basically like
the volatility has been kind of like compressing uh right around the 200 day and it's been trading
in like this really tight range and now it's finally looking like it's ready to break out of it. Extremely strong action today. Another one, SNDX, up 7.7% today near the highs of the day.
This thing is so cheap. Let me explain how cheap this thing is. It has over $600 million of cash.
After this recent run in the last two days, it's up like 10%, 15% or whatever it is.
It's still trading at a 250 million enterprise value.
That means if you strip out the cash, it's trading, you know, it's 850 million market cap,
600 mil cash, 250 million enterprise value. They have two drug launches that just launched,
and they're already on like a $200 million run rate. And that's just on the first quarter of
launch, which means that those numbers are only going to go up from here. It's an extremely cheap stock. And it's really interesting
because their board member actually just resigned to become the CEO of their partner Insight,
INCY. So they partnered on one of their bigger drugs and a board member just went to become the
CEO there. Obviously, I'm not reading the tea leaves or anything, but pretty interesting when something like that happens
and stocks basically at all time lows
and it just looks great.
SCPH, SC Pharmaceuticals,
I've talked about this one a good amount.
This one also just pushed new highs a day plus 9.8%.
Look, if you're in the right bios,
I think you're having a great time.
Nectar Therapeutics,
that one that was up like freaking, you know, 300% or whatever.
That day I came on this show and I said, wow, I bought the gap up in after hours.
And the next day, it basically, in the next two days, it basically tripled.
That thing pulled back perfectly after all the, you know, chasers and traders got washed
out of the stock, came back down to like 22 bucks.
And right now it's sitting at 25.
I think that thing is ready for the next leg up. got washed out of the stock came back down to like 22 bucks and right now it's sitting at 25.
I think that thing is ready for the next leg leg up uh NKTR uh some of the best bio guys in the space say because of that positive data this stock is probably worth double what it's trading at
today uh just based on the data they already have out not expecting anything new so again yeah that's
up uh 7.7. I think the bios are
definitely waking up. Love to see it. I'm a little disappointed with personalists. I was on this
space yesterday and I was excited because the stock gapped up 15% after hours yesterday.
And right now it's sitting at minus 4%. It's a little odd of price action for me.
They expanded their Tempest AI partnership yesterday.
And they expanded it with basically distribution of a new cancer detection test.
They used to always have like the breast cancer detection, but now they're doing a colorectal.
So it's another, you know, product for them and it's extremely sensitive test.
So I'm a little surprised by that price action today, but I think PSNL, like on a red day,
I'm very tempted to buy it and the chart looks good.
So, you know, I'm not really concerned in any way.
I just expected a more positive reaction on that kind of news, especially including,
you know, it's with temp AI and stuff.
Obviously a little bit notable today is software names are down.
Not a big deal.
You know, I don't see any issue there.
InnoViz is a name that has been very interesting.
You know, we've talked about the autonomous driving theme
and, you know, this is one of the leaders
in the small cap area.
You know, there's an analyst on our Discord,
you know, he's long AIP, which is our terrorists. There's another one, CRNC, which is Serence.
I don't know how to pronounce that.
But InnoViz is one.
I don't think he's long this one.
I found it from someone else.
I mean, it's up 5% today on 3x volume.
At one point, it was up like 15% or more in pre-market.
Yesterday, it had like 4x volume. So something's
going on with INVZ. And I just don't know what it is. But clearly, when you pick the right themes,
the charts look good. The fundamentals look good. I mean, they doubled revenue in 2024 versus
the prior year. So I think they're actually their fiscal 2025 guide is that they're doubling revenue
versus 2024. So yeah i mean it looks
really good uh a big big winning trade for me has been sbet um it's no uh you know everyone kind of
knows what this is at this point it's the ethereum treasury play it got extremely memed uh it went
from four bucks to 120 dollars which is insane but as it came back down to the 200 day around nine
bucks ten bucks uh it kind
of based around there and it started pushing higher i got in around this thing went from 120
to nine that also happened wow yes it went from four to 128 and then it went back to nine
when did it do the when did it do this one uh 128 down to nine do you like i'm not i'm i'll get in
front of my turn look in a second but i I'm curious. Is this all just happening in the last couple weeks?
On May 28th to June 12th.
So within two weeks, it went from $1.28 back to $9.
Which, by the way, is still a double from the $4 you were looking at before.
But as it went to $12, basically the chart looked like there was so much volume on it.
And it was just basing and not giving up the 200 day and i i wrote a pretty long post if you go to my page uh last night about i'm getting really bullish on ethereum uh and there are many reasons for that i think i talked about a little
bit like around tokenization of real world assets uh for example also stable coins through the genius
act usdc for example which is the us-based uh stable coin
is on the ethereum blockchain so if you know you're bullish all these different
you know themes then you know ethereum is probably going to be a major beneficiary that chart looks
beautiful trying to break out uh like i said the most bullish thing would be that bitcoin goes up
the bitcoin dominance comes down and that would mean that the altcoins are actually starting to rip
harder uh so relative outperformance versus bitcoin uh and ethereum is probably in my view uh one of the most likely to
benefit at this point so uh that looks good and so obviously you know with ethereum heating up
a name like sbet looks great am i telling you to get into it now no obviously because it's already
up 50 60 percent in a freaking week. It touched 20 bucks today.
I trimmed like half of my shares, a third of my calls.
I covered my sold puts for 50% profit today.
The call spreads were up 200%. Oh, man, it was nuts.
Logical, the fucking time.
Sell SBED, buy BMNR.
Are we just playing that rotation game here?
I know it's more expensive, but I want to,
I was thinking this comment and I would like to hear what other people think. Like my first thought is, all right, Tom, leave him. He launches this Ethereum crypto treasury company and maybe
Ethereum was going to go anyway, but here we are talking about its breakout. So either the timing
was great. Yeah. But what if BMNR is in that position of where s bet went from 128 to nine
it's in that point yeah yeah so why not just wait for it to get back down to like what's
what's the 200 day though on this one it went it went down it went down for the same reason that
bmnr went down yesterday they raised capital that was part of the that's the whole that's that is
what this is that's what this is. You are raising capital.
Wait, can I cut it real quick and say something like this? Look, I wrote this long post yesterday about why I'm bullish Ethereum and someone was asking me, what about Solana?
And honestly, Solana is also a good bet. I think Ethereum has much more validators and is more legit of a blockchain in terms of like you know people's trust and security etc has more
yeah it has more going for it has layer twos etc uh but i started thinking i'm like okay well look
man if you know ethereum treasuries are starting to get going should we be looking at solana
treasuries i know this is getting ridiculous but it's the truth you want to know how right I was to think that? Look up the ticker BTCM today.
The average volume on this thing is 68,000.
Now it's a 94 million market cap right now.
It's up 140% today on 153 million, not thousand, million volume.
This thing is like, I don't even know what the math is on that,
but it's like a bazillion times the average volume.
Now, I kind of want to chase this thing, but I didn't.
I'm going to hold off.
Basically, the reason why it's up so much is because they legit this morning said we're going to raise like $300 million and buy Solana essentially.
I mean, but if they buy Solana for $300 million, let's say.
So if they raise $300 million here, let's say so if they raise 300 million
here the market cap's gonna be 400 million that means that like you basically are paying like 100
million extra for this company right now which would put it at like 1.3 times nav if you think
about it once they get that solana so honestly it could end up being one of the cheaper plays on this
um so you know bmr could easily continue here, but I haven't bought it yet.
I wanted to see if there'd be any sort of pullback or any like something, but the volume is insane.
It could be the next one to go. You know, instead, I actually found other Solana treasury names and
they're doing pretty freaking well today. So I YOLO'd some uh in dfdv today um and upxi uh this is like dfdv is kind of
uh pulling back a little bit towards the end of the day but it's still up 11 on the day uh upxi
is actually the cheapest name in the space um that i found and it trades at like 1.5 or 6 times the NAV.
And so those are both Solana treasuries from what I read.
So look, I'm just thinking, are we just going from Bitcoin treasury names, Ethereum treasury
names to Solana treasury names?
The answer might be yes.
I'm willing to, you know, throw a percent of my portfolio into some crazy trade
like that and just see what happens right like there's no crying at the casino if i if i lose my
premium i lose my premium uh it's much better than you know even though the iv is super high on the
calls um i'm okay with losing whatever that capital is rather than you know buying a ton of shares and
risking a lot more you know what i mean so it's kind of where I'm at right now.
I'm just chilling.
I'm up a percent today.
Can't complain.
I was down two and a half in the morning.
So overall, pretty good day.
So, sorry, two more names to mention today.
Archer Aviation kind of maybe waking up today, which is nice to see. The chart
looks beautiful. Talked about it a little bit today, but yeah, new highs of day right now.
Another one that I saw somebody pitch this stock today on Twitter. I really respect these guys,
Hunter Brook Media. I know Sam there. We chat all the time. And then I saw they did a basically
joint thing with Citrini and he's great at his research.
And they basically called out Teradyne in their report, T-E-R, as a as basically the robot manufacturer for Amazon.
And this stock is trading at just under $99 right now.
It's up 6.6 percent decent volume today.
There was actually a Goldman note today that came out and downgraded
the stock they didn't comment on any of the amazon robot stuff i'm not even sure they're aware of it
you know these guys at hunter brooke media they're they're very astute they are paying attention to
the details it's pretty convincing to me um and what they were saying and sharing uh and you know
this stock was at 140 in early 25 25. Like, so, you know,
a few months ago, it's still down 30% from those days. So I took a position in TER today. And
obviously, that's just been performing really well. And it's very strong on the day. So yeah,
I mean, it's still off its highs. If, you know, this narrative ends up being true, again, everyone has to do their own due diligence
and whatnot.
But from what I saw, I like what I saw.
And the chart looked great.
It's still below, I think, the 200-day.
But it's just climbing that 90 MA.
It looks strong to me.
It gets downgraded by Goldman, and the stock's up 7%.
I kind of like my odds there.
I kind of like my odds there.
So, yeah, TER is an interesting one that I found.
So, yeah, TER is an interesting one that I found.
Wolfie, you had your hand up first, and Spartan?
Yeah, I'm just going to piggyback and answer your questions.
It got the aspect gap down on the Friday the 13th.
It was like a major gap down.
The actual headline came out the Thursday before while we were on the space.
And it was smoked from like $33 to $9 or $8, I think, in the post session.
You know, it's just, they're just going to move further down the risk curve, basically.
Starts with Bitcoin and goes to Ethereum.
You know, we talked about it with yesterday and,
and in two spaces and several other times in spaces that the,
the Robin hood token thing isn't like it. Yeah.
I think it's fair to criticize dunking on it for like, you know,
just wanting to bet basically on the future
price action of a company where you don't actually own anything, which is how they're piloting these
tokens. But it's just, to me, that's just a real world proof of concept for the token thing itself.
And then if they could like iron out the bugs and iron out the kinks and doesn't actually own
anything, doesn't have any
material impact um that's that's just the way that it that that is for me i spent on this space we
talked about i talked about it with you and with stock talk i think um on june 30th or or july 1st
when we talked about um that and the msgs you know, stocks up, I think he said it,
stocks up, since then it was like 990 at the time, stocks doubled, way more than doubled, right?
If you back out the chart though, I wouldn't chase it here. It's effectively a 50% retrace.
You know, I've talked about that I went long he's gone long other people
gone long I've shared this strike I got made fun of by Gary about being an
unusual whale but you know this the options have gone basically 10x in about
a week not where you want to chase this stuff if they if they are gonna keep
this kind of stuff going
it's gonna go further out on the risk curve i think like thinking about you know how what what
are the reverberations of like a solana thing is not a bad idea so this if you want to go the safer
boomer route we talked about coin yesterday again up four percent today um and so there's a lot of
different ways to quote unquote skin to cat.
I just wouldn't chase it here given it's effectively a 50% retrace of,
of the gap down. You know, if, if it is to keep going,
I honestly would, I closed out 90% of my position just,
just for full clarity on the options front. Those things,
those things thousand percent return. You can check my timeline.
They're there. But that's not where you want to chase you want to see it either reset wash out some new hands or consolidate and if it keeps going keeps going look at the 200 hour not
not the day 200 hourly that's kind of like a nice little spot where there's a little bit of a volume
profile as well so it's kind of where i'd look for on uh sbet and then the same same thing goes across the board if bitcoin continues then the
going farther out on the risk curve would be some of these miners that have just been left for dead
um i'll let some of the other guys talk about them because i know some of the other guys have
mentioned they've gone long the miners i don't have a minor position like for a trade I own a couple just for long term or whatever but
it's not anything that I look at on a day-to-day basis I'll let you guys have a ball with that
but I just wanted to chime in kind of give you the context there
just because he said the minors You know, Stock Talk and I have mentioned Cypher.
Actually, we got a listener down here, 20, 30, or bust.
He's the one in our Discord who put it on our radar.
That thing had highest volume ever.
And I know Stock Talk's commented on this one.
But it had the highest volume ever candle.
And then it did it five days in a row.
I mean, it's insane.
Something's going on with that stock.
Typically, when you see trading like that, there's some news or something.
So, you know, I've trimmed a little bit because it went up 45% in a few days, but I'm holding
the rest. Riot was an interesting one because, you know, obviously Bitcoin goes up. It's
probably going to benefit the most from Bitcoin going up because they're a top five holder
of Bitcoin. And when I entered those calls, StockDoc gave me, he told me to look at the
IV on those calls and, you know, sitting around 70%, whereas, you know, you look at the iv on those calls and you know sitting around 70 whereas you know you look at any other miner they were sitting at 115 or so so you're going to get the added benefit of the stock
price moving up but also the iv potentially increasing so uh that ended up being a pretty
good trade as well uh and then there's like you know some smaller cap ones that are a little bit
further out on the risk curve like dgxx which i've talked about uh that one has like a partnership
with um smci i think it's right down let me check i think it's right down to the 21 ema right now I've talked about, that one has like a partnership with SMCI.
I think it's right down.
Let me check.
I think it's right down to the 21 EMA right now.
It bounced perfectly right off the 21 EMA.
So wicked above it.
So there you go.
I mean, we'll see what happens.
And, you know, Bitcoin keeps going this way, then obviously it works.
And, you know, you still have like the data center aspect of it.
And outside of the miners, you also have Galaxy Digital.
It's obviously a popular name,
which again below the 50 day
and again, reclaimed it for the second day in a row.
So nice to see that.
I think it's been shaking people out.
I've been shaken out of this a few times,
but right now with crypto strength,
I wanna be able to hold through the volatility
and see the next legacy.
Interesting. I actually, I was looking down for that guy. We were talking, I was going to make a comment that he should know that. I'm glad he's here because I don't know if he knows,
but StockTalk was calling that guy. I forgot his name, the ugliest guy in the Discord the other day.
So I thought he should know that. I saw David Jakanski, and that made me, we were talking about Bitcoin.
That made me look at BTGD, too.
It's like a Bitcoin gold ETF.
It's half of those, and then they 2x both of them.
And then they rebalance it.
That one is also breaking out to new optimize.
Made me take a peek at that.
BTGD, interesting.
But yeah, I just want to let that guy know that stock talks about
that about him and we can continue I am kidding I don't want to cause any beef
Spartan what's up I saw your hand up before oh yeah what's up guys yeah it's
gonna kind of build off of what logic was saying earlier you can X I put out a
piece research piece of like two maybe two weeks ago I think we talked about
it in here it was trading at map likeV, like 325 is their NAV,
you know, as they acquire more stuff.
And then, you know, we did a full add 295.
It's at 480, whatever.
It's that 142 NAV.
And I think it's going to trade up to like two, three times
at some point.
Obviously, these treasury names are hot right now.
And yeah, usually, you know,
the way that you want to trade these is you go from like the, it's almost like, you know, the same thing as the stock market.
You go from the mega caps to the big caps to the, you know, the small cap stuff.
And that could be said about, you know, what's being traded right now.
You have Bitcoin ones first and then obviously Ethereum, which was S-FET today.
And then now you have some of the Solana stuff that's moving, even though Sol hasn't moved yet.
If it does move, then you'll see that pick up.
There's a couple of interesting ones that are kind of flying under the radar.
One is GDC, and it's actually at a range breakout on the daily right now.
It's been quietly accumulated from like $2.80, sitting at around $4 right now.
There's not much volume on it.
I do have a position.
They haven't disclosed yet if they've done anything. If you guys remember,
maybe like a month ago, probably not, but a month or two months ago, they came out and said,
hey, we're going to come in and we're going to, with our Chinese subsidiary, buy X amount of
Bitcoin and Trump coin. We haven't heard anything from them since, but I'm assuming we might see
something there. It might just be all bullshit. Who knows? But it's worth keeping an eye on.
Certainly the chart price action is telling us some sort of a story here.
So I think it's interesting.
You know, today's been a very big small cap day for me.
And the other thing that's definitely worth keeping an eye on is anything consumer related.
I think the market showed us really early on that institutions are willing to come in and
start to buy some of the consumer-based names. And I think they're picking the consumers a little
bit stronger than what we've seen before. RH has been one of my favorites. I think finally broke
out a little bit today in the short term. We'll see if it can get above its earnings range that
it made a high on at 219 back on,
I think it was literally a month ago.
Well, I guess June 13th.
So that one, that looks pretty good.
You saw the drug names getting bought up a little bit.
You got to keep an eye on those.
You know, I think consumer health obviously is looking decent
and you're going to start to see that triple into a lot of these names
that are consumer based and many of them are undervalued.
Many of them don't have any premium on the auction side,
so it's definitely worth keeping an eye on there.
You know, I heard them mention the Terra9 earlier today,
and I think you've got to watch the robotics names too.
We saw, you know, a little bit of IRBT getting bought up,
some auction activity there.
Same thing on CERV.
There's not many pure plays in that space,
but, you know, I think you're going to see it kind of pick up going forward.
I do see that as a nice thematic play that hasn't really hit the mainstream yet.
So, you know, definitely worth keeping it on.
But short term this week, I think, you know, watch those consumer names tomorrow.
Watch the semiconductors to, you know, break out of this range to the upside markets.
Obviously, all-time highs.
Semis are lagging behind.
Some of the techs are lagging behind.
But we do look pretty healthy across the board.
And then, of course, these small caps, kind of in and out of them.
The way that I'm looking at the small caps is anything higher than, and I talked about this yesterday, but look at the relative volume.
Combine that high relative volume with a nice breakout on the daily with room.
You're going to get yourself into a decent position um based off of that and then just ride the short-term emas to the upside
until they break and you can kind of you know collect you know a whole bunch intraday it's hard
to speculate on them so that relative volume i think is key to uh operating in the small cap
market right now does help quite a bit yeah that's kind of what i'm looking at right now i just wanted
to kind of chime in because logic was talkingic was talking about that UPXI.
So there you guys go.
Thanks, Martin.
I appreciate you.
There was a little headline out
while you were talking too.
We got NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang
is meeting with US President Trump today
at the White House
ahead of Huang's planned trip to China
coming up a lot of next week.
So I don't know if N isn't even at all right now,
but that headline coming out last five minutes or so via Bloomberg.
Options Mike.
Normally we come to options Mike first.
He was still very prompt on time today,
but conversation just took us place.
How are you doing today, Mike?
I'm good, man.
How are you guys doing?
Doing great.
It's been a long day.
It's like a little market.
It is a long day.
I was just commenting in my room.
I'm tired today. I'm just like, you know, I'm just, it's been a long day. It's been a little market. It is a long day. I was just commenting in my room. I'm tired today.
I'm just like, you know, I'm just, it's been a long week.
Weeks like this, they seem to drag on, even though it's been a very good week trading-wise,
especially early in the morning.
And SPY just hit the all-time high today.
So, you know, SPY joined the Qs.
We saw some rotation today.
Bitcoin new all-time highs breaking out.
IBIT all-time highs.
Coin breaking the range here.
Just took out the 52-week high. hood pushing back for high all time highs.
You got MSTR trying to break out here.
I mean, the market's just rotating around.
The banks came back in today.
We saw selling in names like Nvidia and Netflix and Meta and Palantir and a crowd, you know, pick your name today.
A lot of selling in some of those names.
But, you know, overall it's rotation, rotation, rotation.
The market holds strong.
You know, tomorrow is typically a bullish day.
And then we see as we go into next week.
Next week, again, we talk about it.
Seasonality says watch out for some trouble to come in.
Maybe they don't get that dish. Maybe do but you know trouble ending and trouble doesn't
mean a correction or going to a bear market trouble means you know a pullback
you know we kind of drift downwards but God you got to love this market you know
even Baba had you know I didn't I haven't traded it but Baba had lift today I
mean for me I caught Tesla early nice bounce through that gap today just hit
high the days about 20 minutes
ago uh nvidia all-time highs and i don't think anything's changed for me i know um the chatter
on it this morning was that you said you bought you bought some of it this morning so you took
a trade i'm talking about trade perspective what do you think pulling back a little here
i don't know i'm not i'm not in it at this point today.
I traded it early.
You know, it could go up and fill that gap and work its way back up into that 314 area.
Okay, a little higher.
Is this gap from a couple nights ago?
This gap's from last week when he mounted off again about, I think it was Trump or whatever it was, whichever it was. Or it was no forming the party, the political party um i think it was trump or whatever it was you know whichever it was
uh or was no forming the party the political party i think it was um but you know bottom line is it
still has problems everybody's all excited he's applying for uh robo taxis or the robo the
driverless taxis in california and a. But remember, these things aren't in mass production yet.
He only has a couple of them.
These are proof of concept right now.
These are not going to move the needle anytime in the near future.
And I mean, they'll notice and understand me.
I'm optimistic about it.
I love it.
But this is a 2026 or later thing, right?
This is really a 2026 thing.
So everybody has to kind of just take a deep breath.
But outside of that, I mean, rotation rotation day tech was not in vogue crypto's in vogue banks are back in play today
and you know np had nobody talked about np that move this morning on np was one for the ages on
the pre-market on that news that the government took a uh four what is a 400 million convertible
preferred stock while making the largest shareholder
and helping to fund them to basically get rare earth minerals going here in this country.
So that's huge for them.
Not just government, Pentagon.
Yeah, Pentagon.
So, I mean, and Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan also financing
into it as well. So, I mean, there's a lot of good things going on here in the market
with the covers. You know, so just take it one day at a time right now. Oh, and I just
killed my black sky trade. I was in it from 12 and change. It just closed it out a little
bit over 24
about 20 minutes ago
very nice we'll see um you know you kind of chimes in a little bit you have any uh topics you want to understand what were you watching yeah just uh i mean more of the same nothing nothing
crazy the we got a different audience than earlier too so yeah yeah yesterday
the the um the crypto names kind of went i said the name i was looking for at the end yesterday
was tesla that's gone mike just talked about it it's into a downtrend right now on like our
hourly basis uh this is the downtrend that it started once it broke down um on the 26th i think it started to break down
and then it followed up with a gap down in early august or excuse me early july so it's if you go
out and just draw a nice nice little trend line from that june 26 june 27 it's pressing right up
against it um if it gets through i mean look for possibly 323 25 somewhere on there i'm not in tesla i
scalped it i don't want to be in it to be honest with you it's a lot a lot better stuff uh better
looking stuff out there in my opinion um so yeah i've been i've been primarily in the crypto related stuff. I was in SBET, closed out 90% of the options. Really awesome trade.
Paying attention to Robinhood. I think Robinhood could, it's consolidated here for the last few
days, right up against that $100 level. I think it takes out the 100, the all time high could
sprint some more. So I'm just kind of got my eyes on that for a trade.
I didn't really add anything.
I didn't really add anything today.
Again, for me, it's mostly just like taking profits.
Took profits in Valero, took profits in Triple M,
took profits in SBET,
took profits in MSTR and Coinbase a little bit today.
And then I'm just kind of, I'm with Mike.
I want to, I'm not saying that I'm embarrassed or anything like that,
but it's just, you know, some of these things that you buy,
they go up, you know, two, three, 400%.
And you're just like, well, what am I supposed to do?
Just like stay all in?
You got to book it.
If you're in options, you got to roll it.
I'm interested in some of these retail names. I got to book it. If you're in options, you got to roll it. I'm interested in some of these
retail names. I got some positions. I got positions in Hertz, for example. Hertz is
pressing into Ackman name, pressing into a downtrend that it started back in 2021. It hit
that downtrend on the back of the Ackman headline late April, and now it's kind of coming back to that point.
Any breakout above like $8 or excuse me, $9
would really get the stock going, in my opinion.
When the Ackman headline came out,
I was on this space and some others
talking about how I had taken a position,
still have the position,
but in my opinion, it was Car, Avis, C-A-R, that would outperform on the back of the headline, in my opinion.
So I had an options position in Car and had a little bit of position in Car as well.
Cut, I'm completely out of that.
And I think now the inverse is true.
I think this is kind of like a rotation from name to name and from sector to sector. So I think the inverse is true. I think this is kind of like a rotation from name to name and from sector to
sector. So I think the inverse is true. If Hertz can kind of break out above this downtrend that
it's set, they're probably going to play catch up there. Other like kind of quote unquote junkie
names, you know, take a look at things like Target at performing Walmart. Take a look at things like Target, I'm performing Walmart. Take a look at things like Kohl's starting to catch a bid, starting to base out.
There was a headline on Dollar Tree that they're about to issue a buyback.
I think $2.5 billion buyback.
I mentioned Advanced Auto Parts the other day on this space, the name that I own.
I said it was pressing back up towards its recent highs.
It broke through those highs and it's gone, I think, 17% on the back of that even.
Filled the gap today up to 60, so all the short-dated stuff closed out there.
You asked me about Intel. Intel still looks good, looks good again.
Broke to 24, I think, just before we talked about it.
Options Mike mentioned the materials MP.
Solid headline.
And I think there's going to be some pin action in the space.
It's, you know, it's not a new concept that rare earth metals and rare earth minerals and rare earth materials are in high demand.
This kind of falls in line with that second, third order derivative stuff that I kind of mentioned,
where you want to start thinking of these bigger themes and start thinking basically down chain.
What's the next lever that's going to get pulled. So I, I kind of like that logic, uh, closed out most of my Valero.
Um, you know, when I mentioned it was in the one thirties had the one 50 calls for like a dollar
and change, uh, or less than a dollar and change. Um, and that they've, they've, it's at one 55 now.
So like, I, I have to roll up and out, close out the bulk of it, though.
Want to see some sort of consolidation so I can reenter.
Don't want to buy options on a spike unless I think the thing's going to keep going.
And this is a name that's, again, it's not a name that moves the same way that some of these tech names move.
But it's gone basically from 130 to 155 in a straight line.
I want to book most of it i'm interested in uh paying attention to tempest again here uh it's holding 100 day the 200 day sits at like 55. i wouldn't mind seeing you know some sort of flush
down to to that 200 day followed by another hold and And if it does that, I'm going to probably take a long.
And then outside of that, again,
I'm paying attention to boring names.
Philip Morris starting to look good again.
I mentioned Target earlier.
Nike still kind of basing into that downtrend.
Disney came back in, back to its 20-day.
I want to see it kind of base a little bit more and keep going again.
But it's to me, you either are chasing some sort of trend that's, you know, getting pressed every single day.
Good for you. If you're doing that and you're making money, great.
Or you're trying to think of like, you know, where can I what's the next thing that's going to get, lever that's going
to get pulled.
And I think the seasonality part that Mike was just talking about kind of falls in line
with ahead of a Fed meeting, you know, which kind of, which is kind of like the last salvo
before Jackson Hole and it's ahead of earnings, right?
So you get this like blackout period for a lot of these buybacks on blackout period from, you know, speaker's perspective.
And so if you're not confident in what it is that you own or if you don't think things are mispriced in your favor, it's kind of like where you want to start booking profits.
so yeah the the one that started to have that selling today uh which i mentioned yesterday
that i wanted to see how that 1250 level held was netflix currently trading below it's 20 day
21 day whatever one you want to use um 50 days it said it's like 12 15 give or take
i want to see how this one sets up going into earnings earnings are thursday of next week and so this is a name that
generally has kind of set the tone one way or the other uh the last couple of times if
if this time isn't like if you can't pull another rabbit out of their hat i'm just curious to see
how the rest of tech kind of sets up uh and then the last one, I always try to do this for you, Evan,
just trying to save one of your names for the end.
You know, Apple, I talked about it yesterday,
got to like that 07 level.
And I've been saying, and I am saying,
I'd like to see some sort of sell-off back to the breakout,
kind of wash some people out so I can get more aggressive.
Doesn't look like it wants to do that.
Looks like it wants to, you know, keep going.
It's consolidating.
Any follow through from the recent highs probably sends it to 200 days,
sitting at like 220 to 223, somewhere around there.
So it's kind of it for me and just, you know, booking profits,
closing things out, looking for, you know,
farther down the chain or the more boring set actually wait one more thing
I mentioned on the previous space you are right this is a different audience but the different
the the the gap between transports and the market like that the versions is as wide as it's been and
I think over a decade you know there's two ways people look at it. Generally, if you're a macro guy or
a pessimist, you look at that and you say, that speaks to how crappy the economy is,
which they might be right. Not going to disagree, not an argument about that.
The other side of that coin is if the market doesn't react that way,
they could bleed you out before you ever turn a profit if you were to fall into that camp.
So generally speaking, that gap gets closed the other way,
which is to the upside.
So just take a look at some of these transports,
some of these trucking names, some of these,
look at airlines today, for example.
Delta comes out and says,
had a better quarter than people expected. It's not really anything that blows anybody out the water. But all of the other airlines get repositioned. People need to go chase those names before they report because they report here in the next few days. Blue, take a look at Love, Southwest, United, all on fire today, right?
So the same kind of thing is kind of bubbling up in some of these other industries, other sectors.
You know, one of the things, Wolfie, on that, we were talking about earnings season in the past couple.
Like, what were you going to say last earnings season besides we don't know?
You know, this one, there's a little bit more clarity,
but you still could like, it's interesting.
The market wants to see what, what these are going to do.
So I think there is more attention on what, you know,
each company is going to say and how they react to this next week.
We really pick up.
There's a wide variety of names from like banks, JP Morgan.
You're going to hear Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs.
You're going to see J and J Netflix, American Express, ASML.
So there's a lot of names that are going to report earnings.
You're going to see a lot of guidance.
And I wonder where that makes me look at is what companies last quarter did not provide forward guidance that have a company that's reporting their industry.
There's that way to look at it.
But then the other way to look at it was some of these companies, like take a look at these airlines, for example, they, they kind of sandbagged it a little bit.
They're like, hey, we don't know this tariff thing.
Were they the one, I remember last quarter, I'm sorry, there was a company that came in and said, we're going to give you two forward guidances, one if this and that.
I don't remember which one that was.
I feel like it might have been an airline it feels like it might have been don't say
don't remember which one that was but um all i'm saying is you know a lot of these companies have
that that shelter you know that they kind of set and it's not like they came out and they said hey
everything's gonna be awesome it's just any kind of runway on the back
of that kind of, you know, really boxes people in who are being negative, right? And then the last
point that I'd point to is all of these like, you know, really FOMO crap crap like just trade on nothing like kodak for example kodak was a
car company and not car company a photo company nft company bitcoin company you know ai company
like they just kind of try to rebrand to the next so wait a minute that sounds pretty innovative to
me i don't know yeah super innovative right next next they're going to tell you that they're a
gene editing company, but no,
they are. They got a pharma thing. I saw a farmer tweet.
I remember that.
Yeah. So no, I'm just saying that all these, all like names like that,
take a look at Newegg, for example,
Newegg was like a huge name from, from the COVID names.
That stock went from five bucks. I think it's trading $26 or $25 or
$27, somewhere around there, as I talked today.
All in a couple weeks.
The tell for
this kind of stuff is when you start to see
these things kind of blow off
and then you can have
these conversations about, okay, now we need
a real reset.
But until they actually
blow off, they're going to pile
into more and more of these junkie names um and then that that asymmetry provides itself
the other asymmetry provides itself is some in some of these like um you know quiet nobody
pays attention to you mentioned one evan j and j for example whenever j and j runs it really runs
and their options volatility
is really low when it
goes through these quiet periods.
So I'll stop there. If you've got anything,
I'm happy to answer it.
You know, I'm just...
My mind's going different places.
I appreciate you, Wolfie.
I was kind of joking around. There's these Bitcoin treasury companies
and these Ethereum treasury companies.
And honestly, if this madness keeps going,
we might need a stock market news.
We'll see what the hype of the flavor is
at that moment, treasury.
I'd buy it.
I'm biased, though.
Maybe a StocksOnSpace is one?
A StocksOnSpace is treasury company?
Bitcoin treasury company. a crypto treasury company
we're not going to do like you guys i feel like we're not going to start the you guys got to
start the first pepe treasury company or something like that or first coin treasury is there wait is
there one that's like bitcoin and ethereum logical bitcoin and ethereum treasury is that what you said?
I mean there are some names that have
I think it's Kodak
I think it's Kodak
I think Galaxy
but that's a larger market cap
like $8 billion company
I believe that they have like a full portfolio
of digital assets worth like $2 billion
or something like that so I think that includes
multiple digital assets
is that a treasury company though? two billion dollars or something like that so i think that includes multiple digital assets um
no but are these like is that a treasury company though uh what's the difference i don't know i
don't care no so yeah it's not a what you're saying is there is no treasury company that
is a combined bitcoin and ethereum that's what i want to hear right now well that's not true um
we probably just don't know them because they're because the pure plays are getting a lot more love right now.
Stocks on Spaces, Treasury Company.
Honestly, what is the differentiation between any of these besides the person behind it?
And in that scenario, I'm probably taking Tom Lee.
And I guess Michael Saylor has put himself in the head.
What are we doing?
Just real quick, Evan.
I think the difference between them is the premium it's trading at to its net asset values yeah so i think that's the only
difference on dm and r yeah but that's that's based off of the salesman right that's which
is what he's saying i think i think if there's a company that could possibly do it down the line
where they do both and it would just be like another lever that they pull it could be vlad at robin i'm just saying if
you can buy like one that's trading at freaking 20 times nav versus another one that's trading at
three times and that then there's a clear opportunity oh no i agree with you i'm just
saying the difference is just someone's better at sales right like that's the difference we were
talking oh yeah previous space yeah that's the difference between google trading where it trades
and some of these other you know tech companies companies that aren't killing it as much trading significantly better.
It's just they're better at sending their story.
I don't know if I'd use Google as an analogy there.
I mean, these treasury companies are literally dumb as hell, but I mean, they're just hot.
No, no, I'm just, I'm just saying, I'm saying if you, it's the same concept,
if you applied Google versus metaa versus Microsoft versus whatever.
Some of those mega caps that you comp it to trade better,
trade at a higher premium sometimes,
I think in part because they're able to deliver the story better.
And it's the same kind of concept.
I don't know, man.
I think Google has true problems.
I haven't used Google to search something in like three months.
I only use chat you know so
like I think that is a real change I used to Google maybe a hundred things a day now I don't
so I don't know I agree I think that's a huge problem too but Google does have other optionality
and they have a ton of optionality you know Google could do some big things in robotics and and ai
and quantum and i think gemini is one of the best models out there just for what it's worth so there
is some saving graces for google but yeah i do agree that the search business is in jeopardy
there's no question about it and that's for the first time ever you know talk talk should we start
a bitcoin uh my treasury company well it's a good segue i'm glad i'm glad they ended the
conversation their conversation
on Bitcoin Treasuries
because I was going to talk about that today too.
But I have a lot of stuff to talk about today.
But pitch me on this.
Let's merge with a Bitcoin miner
that's not doing anything.
Let's get all the Bitcoin,
create a Bitcoin treasury company.
And then sell stock to buy Bitcoin?
Sell stock to buy Bitcoin,
but sell our Bitcoin miners
to be big tech for AI bitcoin miners only work as long
big tech for ai this only works as long as bitcoin meaningfully outperforms cash right
like people people really overthink all of these things like everything just gets overthought it's
one of the things i hate most about financial twitter and i always voice that frustration here
but everything just gets overthought it's just a bunch of over thinkers
and i don't overthink things you know so i see a good chart good theme good catalyst you buy the stock it's that simple you know the second you start peering at the balance sheet and wondering
if like the debt is going to get in the way of the stock of running 300 uh it's not
you know says all the pre-revenue and high debt companies that have
quadrupled and year to date. And like, it's just an inefficient way to think about markets because
like if, yeah, if you're going into an earnings print, should you be concerned about the fundamental
metrics of a company? Or if you're planning on investing, should you be concerned about the
fundamental metrics of the company? In both those cases, yes.
But outside of that, outside of a multi-year position
that you're investing in or an earnings trade
that you're about to take, like the market moves
that happen intracorder are largely fundamentally irrelevant.
I'll repeat that because I don't think some people
might understand what I'm saying,
but the moves that happen in between earnings seasons are largely fundamentally irrelevant.
That's it.
That's like one of the core principles you need to understand if you want to, as a trader, outperform markets.
If you start worrying about the P-E ratio intra-quarter, you're not going to make it.
You're not going to hold the stocks for long enough.
You're not going to capitalize on the real thematic winners.
And these happen every year.
This isn't like, oh, just this year or just last year or just 2023
or just every other year of the last decade.
This has happened.
There's always a theme where stocks run hundreds of percent. And you'll have the skeptics tell you it's really hard to get into
those themes. And I completely disagree with that. I don't think it's hard at all, actually. I think
it takes diligent observation to a degree. Maybe it takes a little bit more time input than people
are willing to put in their portfolios, but that's really it. I mean, the money flow makes it obvious when a theme is starting.
Like all of the successes I've had this year, picking so many stocks.
My portfolio went back to new all-time highs today.
My biggest position, Centris Energy, was up like 10%.
All the success I've had this year, not one time in all the stocks that I've picked, have I looked at the P-E ratio.
Not on one stock.
And guess what else I've not done?
And guess what?
This isn't just true for this year.
This is true for the last 10 years of my trading and investing.
And guess what else I've not done, which maybe I occasionally will do this,
but 99% of the time, I don't look at any time frames below the daily.
Okay? And take that for what it's worth. I mean, the scalpers out there will hear me say that and they'll, 99% of the time, I don't look at any timeframes below the daily. Okay.
And take that for what it's worth.
I mean, the scalpers out there will hear me say that and they'll, what?
You don't look at the five minute chart when you're making decisions about your portfolio?
No, I don't.
And frankly, the only time I ever look at a time frame under the daily is I might look
at the 15 or 30 minute chart an hour after the open and just see how the stock opened and what the reception volume was like.
That's about it. Outside of that, I never look at it.
So like I just really don't. I think everyone overcomplicates markets.
I don't think you need a million indicators. I think you need nothing on your chart besides volume and your moving averages.
You really don't even need the moving averages. It just helps a lot to know where like the price levels are.
But you don't even need the moving averages it just helps a lot to know where like the price levels are but you don't even really need those and you need a diligence of observing themes and trends that's it and an ability to read a chart and know where a good entry is that's literally it that's it
it's not i just want it's not easy but it's simple dude i just want to say man i owe you a lot man
because you've taught me to simplify
a lot of my process for sure and like when it comes to trades i care way less about the
fundamentals in terms of like the valuation aspect of it like the quote unquote you know
downside cushion or margin of safety etc like obviously that's really nice to have and i do
check it out but i put less um weight on that. Yeah. I, I, I focus on, Hey,
is this company growing? Is it in the right theme? Does the chart look good?
Is the volume good? And that will make up the,
the trading basket of my portfolio when it comes to the investments of my
portfolio, things that I'm, that I can actually size up to like,
that's when you care. Yes, exactly. Like, you know,
we talked about Jeannie or something like that, or, you you know there's a lot of different names in the portfolio that
you know you really believe in um you know this stock is probably really undervalued and and when
you say the word undervalued then you're starting to take into account valuation but yeah and and
sometimes for me undervaluation isn't purely a fundamental metric like centrist energy which i
was going to talk
about today too is up 10 today i've talked about it i don't know every single day on these spaces
for months it just goes up and up and up the pullbacks get bought up you know this thing's
pushing back to 200 but when i bought centrist energy i didn't look at the balance sheet you
know i actually owned this thing in the 40s prior sold it last year in the 80s, then bought back at 96 this year. Not one time did I look at the PE ratio.
I know it's a rare asset.
I know it's the only company in the world, the only one, not like one of,
the only one that does uranium enrichment, period, end of story.
I know that's valuable, right?
And so for me, I look at them.
Some people look at Center's Energy and go,
they don't have the earnings to justify their market cap.
And I laugh at those people.
Like, I literally laugh at that.
Bank of America has a $260 price target on it.
And I love Bank of America.
And I think they're the best research shop on the street.
I've said that many times.
Bank of America is by far and away the best, most consistent equity research shop.
If you're going to read anybody's research, if you could pick one bank, you always pick Bank of America year in, year out.
But anyway, Bank of America release in, year out. But anyway,
Bank of America release report late in, obviously, we got into the stock in 96,
they released it was like 170 with their 260 price target. I think that's too conservative as well. I think the stock's going three, four, maybe even 500 plus. I genuinely do believe that.
But JP Morgan came out a couple of weeks ago on Centris Energy and issued this garbage report
saying essentially that fundamentally the company is overvalued. But these sort of opinions
lacks thematic relevancy. That's why I emphasize themes so much. Like theme, thematic relevancy
informs valuation. You know, stuff is not worth as much when it's not as interesting.
That's a really hard concept for people to grasp. Even people that have been in the market for
decades still cannot grasp that. They don't get it. They keep buying unsexy stocks and wondering
why their performance is subpar. And I'm talking about people who are really smart, who are really experienced, who are even really successful, right, who are continually attracted to baskets of stocks that will not garner public favor and public interest.
They might do well over 10 years, but they're not going to massively outperform the market.
And all of this is not to say that valuations don't matter, because I know there's always people that misinterpret what I'm saying.
They don't take the full context of what I'm saying. None of this is to say that valuations don't matter.
They absolutely do matter. And in market crashes and corrections, the companies that do not have fundamental justification will suffer more.
OK, that is universally true. And over the long term,
it will be much more volatile, much more painful to hold those companies. But for trading for the
purposes of trading vehicles, intra quarter, they are better vehicles. They tend to have higher
short interest, they tend to have more public interest, they tend to have liquid options
chains, they tend to have, you know have this ability to attract buyers on a catalyst.
All catalysts are not made equal.
You could have two identical catalysts on two different stocks and they would respond completely differently.
Well, a technical and mechanical structure, right? Which one has the better chart? Secondly,
which one has a better float structure? Which one has the higher short interest? Which one has more
public attention? Which ticker is better known? Sometimes it's which ticker is sexier. Sometimes
it's literally that simple in the distinction of these stocks. So there's
seven or eight attributes that can dictate the attractiveness of a stock to the buying public.
And when those PRs hit, right, there's a reason. People see this all the time. You'll see industry
wide PRs and one stock in the group goes up 25% and one goes up 3%. Well, why did that one stock go up 25%?
Because it has more of these attributes.
It has a better chart, a higher short interest,
more supportive or accumulative volume profile headed into the catalyst.
All of any or all of these things.
Unusual options flow, whatever.
You can tag all of these things as little checkboxes and say,
okay, it has all these things.
It's probably going to perform better.
And that tends to be true.
Launch class, here, hand up.
I don't know if you want to make a quick comment,
but I have a bunch of stocks I'm going to go through.
Yeah, just real quick comment on what you were talking about.
I had a two-hour conversation with my buddy yesterday.
He's a really smart guy,
probably smarter than me when it comes to
investigating and studying businesses.
That said, he's still stuck in i what i'm trying
to nudge him from is like you know he's talking to me about you know some legacy retailer or some
like random business that's like in piping or something like that and it trades at some really
cheap multiple and it's like yeah but dude like you know those revenues are never going to expand
beyond what they've seen in the past like there's a good chance that those revenues are never going to expand beyond what they've seen in the past like there's
a good chance that those revenues are forever in decline and like so people don't want to buy
something that has really little chance of expanding past what it's seen in the past you
can always buy like the lows of the cyclical range and sell the highs like yeah if that's the game you
want to play sure but like there's a reason why people are buying the palantirs etc like i don't
agree with that kind of valuation stuff but but look, people are just wanting to buy something
because they actually don't know where the highs of,
where this thing can actually push to.
Like, right now, people are pushing Coinbase.
And I wrote up something yesterday where, like, dude,
I wouldn't be surprised if Coinbase went to $1,000 this cycle.
I wouldn't be surprised if Coinbase was a trillion-dollar company
in the next, I don't know, 5, 10 years.
Because, you know, the opportunity in front of them in terms of, like, this stuff in crypto, it's like that becomes more mainstream, etc, etc.
Like my point is that people are paying these really high multiples for things. And, you know, the value investor is always going to ask, you know, why are my stocks working? Why are these stocks working?
It's because there's a bigger future ahead of these stocks. And, you know, and you got to just accept the fact that retail is a bigger part of the bid in the world today and yeah so I just want to comment
is like it doesn't matter how smart you are sometimes it's not about being smart
thanks talk talk might have rugs
yeah we got you sorry it was like doing that thing where it wouldn't let me um unmute um no yeah i agree retail is a bigger part of the market i mean me and dan had this
conversation me and um speaking of two smart wall street guys that are on our show uh not all the
time but semi-regularly cantro and Niles. I had this conversation with both of
them recently on this space, right? This exact conversation about has the environment changed?
Like have markets changed? And I think the answer is yes. You know, every year,
retail participation goes up every year. It's just like, not every year, but like a net net on a five-year basis, it goes up.
That's what I mean.
There's some years where it goes down a percent, but it goes up.
It trends up, I should say, because there's always people that want to nitpick on the
stuff I say, but it trends up, okay, always.
And it hit all-time highs recently, I don't know, last year or the year before, 65% of
All-time highs recently or last year the year before 65% of US households and now
U.S. households.
Every child in America gets a thousand bucks in stock market
Okay, so what is that gonna do to US household ownership of stocks it increases the US household ownership stocks, right?
And I saw some debates about this
This is another thing where I talk about people over complicate shit
You know, I actually think over complication is a sign of lack of intelligence instead of the other way around.
A lot of people overcomplicate stuff and they think it's like smart.
I think it's the opposite.
I think it's just dumb.
It's just like people making things unnecessarily complicated.
Look, when you think about U.S. household ownership of stocks, why is it important?
Is it important because of the amount of money?
Well, partially, yeah. Right. We've gone from a quarter to a little over a third of total dollar
control. That's pretty significant. But more important than that, it is the significance
of the market to national policy. Right. We're a democracy or I guess about as close as you get to one in this world.
And so, you know, we're government for the people, by the people. Right.
I vote we kick Texas out. Huh? I said I vote we kick Texas out. That's the least one.
No, Texas is the best state. What are you talking about? But anyway, we you know, we elect our representatives. Right.
But anyway, we, you know, we elect our representatives, right?
In a nation like that, financial, the significance of asset classes is directly tied to the interests of the people broadly.
Even if you think we're in an oligarchy, even if you think like whatever you think about it, the reality is, is the reason
the stock market drives voting in elections, the reason every president like talks with the stock
market is because a little over half of Americans are now much more than that own stocks. Okay.
Now that every baby in America is going to own stocks, do you think stock, the stock market
becomes more important or less important to policymakers?
It becomes way more important.
And the idea of a Fed put that people talk about, like when will the Fed step in to save the markets,
or when will regulators or whoever step in to save the market,
that is dictated by the public demand and interest and ownership
in the markets. If more of the public owns stocks, you can't let stocks, you know, crash.
You can't. So if you think the COVID stimulus at the lows was big, if this market crashes in two years or three years, the stimulus will be enormous.
Because more people are invested, younger people are invested, every baby in America now,
born in America now owns stocks, it has become even more intricate to the financial system. So
I said when that happened, I said, this is extremely bullish for stocks. And I had people
in my comments who were like, dude, it's a thousand bucks. Like, why does it matter?
And my point is, is that it's not about the thousand dollars. It is about increasing the
percentage of Americans that own stocks. And when you think about it, this will dramatically change
that number. Because when you look at the Americans that don't own stocks today, in the vast majority of instances, they do not own stocks because of financial incapacity to do so.
Either because they lack the disposable income, they lack the savings, they lack the overall income or whatever to have stock and asset investments, or they have a limited amount of disposable income to allocate it to real estate instead or whatever. Okay. The point is, is they have a lack of
available income to allocate stocks. This dynamically changes that for all those people,
for those babies that are born into these households that, you know, would not have
otherwise ever had a stock market account now now are invested in the American stock market.
That is a, you know, that's a game changer, in my opinion.
That's not a small deal.
Like, that is very bullish, I think, in the long term.
And every time I say something's bullish, people are like,
are you saying stocks are going to rip next month?
No, I just mean, like, like structurally speaking that is very bullish
that every child born in this country will own stocks that's you can't say that's
bearish there's just no way to phrase it i 100 agree with you i've been saying this for a while
like could you imagine the government just stepped in and basically i i don't want to call the stock
market upon this but they're basically funneling more money into the Ponzi scheme so that like, you know retirees are able to withdraw money
like I'm not saying it's a Ponzi but my point is just like
There is just an inflow of government money now into the stock market. The government is now intertwined
It's not yeah, this is I mean they have to be at now. They're even more
Yeah, like it's insane. And I agree with you. The Fed's been supporting the stock market for a long time. And now we have the federal government directly fiscally injecting a thousand dollars every time.
And what about like the fact like you keep seeing those stats of like percentage of households who own stocks?
So that number is going to skyrocket over time. Now, every person in America is going to own stock.
I'm wondering, when are we going to get to a point where we start investing the social security fund into the stock market at that point, right?
Because that's kind of what they've been saying.
And that would have been probably more helpful if we had done that 20 years ago.
We'd have way less issues now.
So yeah, I mean, definitely very bullish.
Very bullish for Robinhood, man.
You know, I'm so upset I've missed this story.
I know you've nailed it.
Several others haven't.
It's like, dude, what is their average age of their customers like 27 29 you got to think about the legacy brokers like the
schwad they're gonna inherit hundreds of they're gonna inherit hundreds robin it's gonna say
hundreds of billions of inflow from inheritance i think dude i was arguing with somebody i don't
even know if i could call it an argument but somebody was like oh you're just gonna call
it a 500 billion dollar company i'm like look i'm not saying that tomorrow but at this point
the trajectory they're on yeah i think it'll be'll be a $500 million. I 100% agree with you, dude.
It is probably going to be a mega cap.
And it's because, one, they're offering so many products.
Two, for these products, they're offering 1% to 2% transfers on those deposits because they're doing a land grab.
Come over here and we will give you whatever.
Because if you do it once, the switching costs are pretty high.
Their promos have been amazing.
That crypto switch promo they did was sweet.
Everything, man. Everything. They're killing the IRA. Set up your IRA here. We'll match 3%. are pretty high their promos have been amazing crypto switch promo they did was everything man
everything they're killing the ira set up your ira here will match three percent i mean they're
they're just doing the smart things and the average customer is so much younger than the
average customer at a schwab or fidelity and you know obviously you know death is a natural part
of life and eventually like as people get older you know the older generation like you know who's
gonna be the customers at schwab i i don't think people are seeing no one's
gonna go to Charles Schwab at this point no one's gonna go to Fidelity at this
point yeah the real inflection comes when the that generation turns over I
went and then and then the kids that already have Robin and like you said
transfer the whole transfer the whole 300k to my Robin or to count or the whole million of my Robin account or whatever
They inherit that's what they're gonna do fuck man. Yeah, dude, you're right
Order of millions of them. So yeah, I'm very bullish on Robin. That's why I've sold any and I'm praying
Yeah, we get like, you know, I'm praying that in the next
There's a few thoughts that I pray crash and Robin Hood is one of them
$50 again, I would make it like a 10% position.
Yeah, for sure.
Yeah, a little interesting.
If my core positions crash, I get very interested in that.
A little interesting on brand news.
An AI startup founded by Robinhood's CEO Vlad Tenev called Harmonic AI
just raised $100 million at a nearly 900 million dollar valuation well these guys are doing
everything it aims to build well I don't know how compelling okay I'm a fan of
that so probably something aims to build AI systems that can solve complex math
problems creating what the company refers to as mathematical super
intelligence funds makes flagship AI model Aristotle available to researchers
and the general public later this year.
So what does that mean?
Are they trying to get into like the AI arms race?
Because that doesn't sound like it's a very helpful.
That is not Robinhood.
That is not Robinhood.
It's he co-founded a separate company,
a separate AI startup.
it has nothing to do with Robinhood.
He just is a co-founder.
it's called harmonic AI,
but it's like that,
the way I got, got you into fascinated on the story was that it's co- do with Robin Hood. Yeah, it's called Harmonic AI. But the way I got you fascinated on the story
was that it's co-founded by Robin Hood's CEO.
Gotcha. Thanks.
Glad to have.
That's a lot of nice clothes and acting nice in After Hours.
I put the tweet out.
I bought some calls in the 2.30-ish time frame.
I was talking with Prosperoo and it looked really good
on the signals and uh i heard someone else might have taken it but i did hold it overnight so i put
out the tweets and you're gonna have to go to prospero you could have just looked at my lotto
call in the discord and you would have got a better entry you don't want to go down this route i know
i don't want to go down this route but one of these one one of these one was free
yeah that's that that's true but you're you also have free access so um you know we have a uh we have looking good in after hours though those that are um in the audience i know you guys hear me talk
a lot about the calls that we make on all these stocks um we are running our last sale.
So September 1st, prices go up.
I've tried not to raise prices,
but nobody's canceling,
so I kind of have to
because I don't want 20,000 people in there.
But prices are going to go up September 1st,
and we're doing our last sale.
It ends tonight at midnight.
So I do want to mention that in case anyone missed
it some people say they missed the post or whatever i pinned it at the top you can go
click the link there um it's going to be 30 off any package you'll lock that in so it'll be
on the monthly it'll be less than a dollar 50 a day the more you extend out quarterly is cheaper
than that annual is even cheaper than that.
I think the annual is like a buck a day or something with the discount.
So go click the link, check it out.
You can see all of our reviews and packages at the link that I pinned at the top.
We have a lot of reviews on there that you can read from real members.
We use WAP as a platform because they're a third-party platform and all of our reviews get fed through them.
So they verify that everyone is a customer.
It shows you how long they were subscribed,
when they subscribed, what they said.
It shows you their username.
So it's pretty legit.
It's not just anonymous reviews.
It's from actual users.
We can't edit them.
We can't change them. Uh, we can't stop bad reviews. It's all done through WAP,
which is a third party payment platform. They have hundreds and hundreds of other groups. So
yeah, you can go see what our members say. We have pretty damn good reviews. I think like
pretty much everything is five stars. There are a couple, four and three stars, but
pretty much all of our members have given us pretty rave reviews. I share my whole portfolio
in there. So all these stocks I talk about, I know sometimes I'll come here and talk about a stock and
you guys are like, oh, it's already up 14% on the day. If you want that alert in the morning,
you have to be in the group. I mean, I'm not in these spaces in the morning. So
like today, SMLR, I posted that last night want these spaces in the morning. So, you know, like today, SMLR, you know, I posted
that last night for our members in the evening, SMLR ran like 15% this morning, closed up 9%.
You know, Centris Energy, I shared that with our group at 96, literally a month and a half ago,
it's 197 today. The stock is more than doubled. It's my largest position. I talk about it like
every day. You know, all of these things were shared. Joe B Aviation hit 1230 today.
We opened that a week and a half ago at 952.
You know, real quick, man.
Also, like a lot of people who, you know, message me on Twitter.
I've had a lot of people just really chill people talk to me and like I would DM them
and they end up joining our group.
And I can't tell you how many of them have like reached out to me and just
like, they're so happy with the progress that they've seen.
So like, that's real.
I talk to people, no problem.
It's insane.
Obviously it's been, I wouldn't take them an easy market, right?
Cause you still have to pick your spots, but it's obviously been a good market.
That said, you know, it's still easy to screw up an easy market or like a good market. And
yeah, I think that people are definitely seeing the results. So the guidance is key, I think. And
we host like educational workshops every week. I do that. People find a lot of value in that.
They always message me and saying like, that was great. And like the other day, like I said,
dude, like Pubmatic should get going. And, you know, I'm going to add calls in the morning. I
add calls and that stock goes up 9%,
close above the 200 days.
You know, we were just talking about it on the space
that right after that happened.
And it's like, we added calls in the morning
because we reviewed the charts together
and we talked about the story together.
And, you know, so I think a lot of people
find value in this stuff.
Yeah. And, you know, what makes, I always say,
you know, there's a lot of discords out there.
I'm sure you guys hear about it.
What I genuinely think makes ours different is, I mean, I share my full portfolio. Logical also
is one of our analysts and that shares his full portfolio. I tell you the general weightings of
everything. I usually put weighting ranges on it because I have not only options exposure tied to
the positions, but I also have positions that I want you to know where the top of the ranges are for trims.
So I do that because I think it's helpful.
I also post all my live alerts, like the Tesla alert that we gave today, literally at the bottom of the day for Tesla, 305 calls, the stock close to 310.
Like you get all that stuff.
You get every thought that I have, every alert that I have very clearly spelled out in my journal.
There's no like if ands or buts. It's just like, hey, here's what I'm doing. Here's why I'm doing
it. And I tell you when I close the positions to like yesterday, B went up 20%, which we owned
and I sold it. And then today it went down 11% on an offering, lucky or good chart reading.
Right? I don't know. I mean, mean if it's luck we get really fucking lucky
that's what i'll say if it is luck then we get lucky a lot because you know i mean we're
consistently having days where you have 19 20 positions green in a flatter red market i mean
that's how you get the kind of outperformance that you get. And I think the thing that really makes my community different than the other communities out there is that we share our performance.
And all these other guys post winning trades or they post this and that or they post a screenshot of one trade, but they don't show you their performance of their own portfolio.
They're very scared.
They're very scared. A lot of influencers on this platform to go to their brokers and take a screenshot of their own portfolio. They're very scared. They're very scared. A lot of influencers on
this platform to go to their brokers and take a screenshot of their performance. Why? Ask yourself
why. Because most of them are not outperforming or they're not outperforming in the way that they
want you to think they are. Right. You know, when I post my performance, I'm up 100% year to date.
I'm very proud of that
because I have a very large retail portfolio in my opinion and that's a lot of money and so I'm
proud of that but I still have people when I post that we're like oh I'm doing better this year and
they'll post 150% and I'm like great awesome like at least you're sharing your your performance
rather than just yapping all day or like, oh, I'm the best trader ever,
and they don't even share their own portfolio. I encourage all of you who follow people,
go to your favorite stock influencers, comment on their posts and say, hey, can you please take a
screenshot of your brokerage performance? Just take a screenshot. You don't have to show how much
money you have. I don't like disclosing that either. I don't want people to know my net worth.
But just show the percentage performance.
Show how you're doing.
And what you'll find is most influencers on the platform will say no, or they'll make an excuse, or they'll tell you, well, I have it separated into different accounts, or this or that.
They'll make an excuse.
That's what it is.
And so ask yourself if those people are really as skilled as they're telling you they are, or if they're as good as stock pickers are the time because I we show you our performance. I say, hey, here's my pick. Here's what I'm buying. Here's what I'm selling. And oh, yeah, here's my performance. So if you're interested in that kind of group where we're transparent and we're real and we actually know what we're doing.
and I would say that we are elite stock pickers.
I would not hesitate to say that.
There's a reason why you guys hear me bring up so many stocks on these spaces
that are up 20% after we call them out, you know,
because we tend to be in the right places at the right times.
It's just the truth.
And we have the conviction when we talk about it,
and that's why we end up having the results as well.
Like when we talk about it on these spaces all the time,
like we're talking about real tickers that we own and that we're trading and that we're about it. And that's why we end up having the results as well. Like when we talk about it on these spaces all the time, like we're talking about real tickers that we own,
and that we're trading and that we're looking at and we've known for many years. And, you know, you see the perfect chart set up. You're like, wow, I haven't looked at the stock in a while.
And I think this looks like, you know, it's perfect time to get back in because I saw
whatever, whatever. So we have like years and years of experience of looking at these same
stocks. So when we see something about them them we already know the backstory of this company we know the backstory of how this stock trades so
you know it's really helpful to have that kind of experience because you're not going to have that
your first year in the markets um you know for me also like i i do post my portfolio updates and
and i'm and i'm very kind and generous because i post them on twitter publicly um and i'm actually
probably gonna do a portfolio update now i don't think I'm going to continue doing this indefinitely. I've just been doing it as a way to
just share performance and be public and transparent because of, you know, I think
that's really key and important, like Stock Talk was alluding to. I think eventually I'll probably
make this members only or something like that. But yeah, so yeah, I'm going to maybe do a portfolio
update right now. But yeah, just I agree stock talk it's the transparency is very key in this industry yeah and the cool thing is is when i say this stuff you know a lot
of the people in the audience of these shows are in our community so like you know they know that
i share my portfolio they know that i share everything i do in the journal like they could
call bullshit there's thousands of people in our community they could all just go on my post and be
like this guy's fucking lying like but if you want to see for yourself, you can come see. Like, you
know, it's weird because when I talk about my winners on Twitter, like people who are,
and I don't mean this in an offensive way, frankly, inferior traders will say, well,
you do nothing but win. There's no way you nailed all these stocks. And I'm like, I don't
know what to tell you. Like, I have a journal that thousands of people read where all of these call
outs are made live, you know, like it, the proof is in the pudding.
I don't know what else to say.
So for the people who are skeptical out there, try it.
You know, if you hate it, you can cancel, you know, big deal.
Sign up for a month.
If you hate it, you can cancel, you know, no harm, no foul.
But there's a reason why our cancellation rate is so low and why I have to keep raising prices.
Right. Like if the product wasn't in demand, we wouldn't raise prices every year.
I have to raise prices every year because people don't cancel.
You know, and I think that that's a testament to the quality of the product.
So, yeah, like I said, price is going up September 1st.
If you want to get 30 percent off the current prices, which are already discounted, you can do that today.
It's the last day to do it.
We're not having any more sales.
I probably won't have any more sales at all this year because prices are going up September 1st.
I don't really see a need.
Maybe we'll do a December sale, but that'll be on the increased prices on September 1st. So yeah, if you are interested
or you've been here and listened to these spaces
and you wanna like get in finally
and like see what it's all about, come in.
What I will say is when you get in there,
don't be overwhelmed.
You're gonna see not only an analyst journal for myself,
you're gonna see one for Logical.
You're gonna see one for Wall Street Engine.
I see him down in the crowd.
He has a fantastic page that's very popular.
I know a lot of you love.
You can even go click onto his page and go through his affiliate link as well
if you want to join the community.
Use the same discount code.
But he'll have a journal in there as well.
We have Yanezu, who I've talked about in a lot of these spaces.
He's been our head of research for a long time.
Me and him do tag team research every single morning.
He's a little quieter than some of our other guys in our Discord, but he is a huge help to me and has been an ally for me in my trading for many years.
One of my most trusted consultants in the trading world.
He's just a genius. He's super smart.
And you get his thoughts in there as well.
You're talking about a guy with a CFA with decades of market experience,
okay, really, really polished season guy. You get a whole team, you get this whole team. And when
you get in there, you'll see a journal for everyone, okay, where we post all of our thoughts
and all of our trades. You don't have to follow everyone's journals. You know, if you really like
SmidCaps and Biotex and these smaller software names, the logical trades, great.
Get involved in those. If you don't like those, cool. Check out what somebody else in the server is trading.
Or if, you know, if you like, I also trade SMID caps, you know, but I also trade some large caps and I also have some investments.
And so you can go and see and say, OK, I want to just follow Stock Talk or I want to just just follow Wall Street Engine, or I want to just follow Logical, or I want to follow all three of them.
You can make that choice as a member, which is cool.
And so the amount of noise you take in is up to you.
There are a lot of channels, but you don't have to, you know, some members will join and say, there's a lot of channels.
lot of channels where do i look i you know i say whoa slow down you just pay figure out who you
Where do I look?
You know, I say, whoa, slow down.
want to follow whether that's me or another analyst or whatever and you follow that journal
that channel you have to look at the other ones so it's really that simple um there's a full
instructions channel you can read through it and read all what all the different channels are about
if you're interested in different types of content. But we've put it together pretty professionally. Every trader in there is a market outperforming trader.
That is very important to me.
I don't bring people onto my team that don't outperform the market
because that's just bullshit.
Like, if you're not outperforming the market,
then what are you doing preaching to other people about performing?
So performance is what we put value on.
The team outperforms,
and if they don't outperform, they leave the team, or I take them off the team. That's just
frankly how it is. And that's why the quality of the information is so high. So yeah, come join,
come hang out. We'd love to have you you know you can hear about my ideas in a more
timely way if you're in there but anyway off the promo topic uh on to a few stocks that i wanted
to touch on for today touched on centrist just a winner i mean if you haven't listened to my 500
other spaces where i've talked about this one go listen it's the only the only uranium enrichment asset in the world. It's just, to me, just very skewed valuation that can
rocket easily to the upside. For me, I'm not selling a single share. I've never done that
with a position where I'm up over 100%. I've never, ever not sold any. I'm not selling any
center center. I have no intentions of selling. In fact, I won't even sell at 250. I might think
about selling at 300 plus. And I know that sounds crazy considering it's already gone from 96 to 197, but I really
do believe it's one of the rarest assets in the world.
And I think days like today, it stands out.
But SMLR, we talked about this on Tuesday.
This is a small cap Bitcoin treasury play.
I know Evan's going to love hearing about Bitcoin treasury plays. But this thing performed like shit all year.
I'm telling you, we should start one.
What are these companies?
No, but this thing has been performed like shit all year.
And then recently they did some structural changes, some board governance changes, and started acquiring more Bitcoin.
And I read a note from Benchmark on them earlier in the week that I went over on our transcripts report.
So I do a pre-market call.
Speaking of the group, I do a pre-market call every single morning for our members.
So before the market opens, I walk you through what I read for the day, what I think is interesting, what might move, what catalysts are on the table.
So that's part of what you get to every morning. You get to hear me rant for 20, what catalysts are on the table. So that's part
of what you get to every morning. You get to hear me rant for 20 minutes about what's happening in
the market. But those rants are more valuable than the ones I give here because they're usually very
actionable in the moment. A lot of the stocks I talk about on those morning calls end up ripping
15, 20% on the day. That happens very frequently. And so we focus on the hottest
catalyst that can really move stocks. We don't focus on bullshit stuff. Like I don't, you know,
some of these catalyst watches you see out there that are put out by larger media organizations
are just garbage. Like 90% of the information on there is useless and not actionable.
I don't do that. Our catalyst watches are super concise. I take 15 minutes and just run you
through what I think can move and why I think it can move. That's it. And so, you know, a lot of
our members like those calls, but anyway, SMLR, we touched on it on Tuesday and it made a really
nice move on Tuesday after that note. And, um, I decided to keep it and i posted the chart again last night
for our members just showing how beautiful it is and the weekly chart was just gorgeous last night
um i'll actually pin that at the top too but that uh i posted that chart yeah like 5 p.m last night
for our members and said this is a drop dead gorgeous weekly chart. That was the wording I used.
And then today it ripped 15%.
So, you know, talk about timing, but that float is 30% short.
And, you know, I read the benchmark note,
the benchmark note, $100 price target.
And I read the benchmark note and I like benchmark.
You know, benchmark gets a lot of slack slack but they make really smart tactical calls like they just do
you know they nail they nail stocks like right before parabolic moves in fact indy which i bought
a few weeks ago and discussed here was also on a benchmark report you know but they like targeting
these types of stocks that i like targeting where they're like consolidated and like waiting to build nice volume profiles.
You could tell they have technical guys on their team.
You can tell.
You can tell when a shop doesn't have technical guys that are informing the opinion and when they do.
But Benchmark, I like them.
They get a bad rap.
I like them a lot.
And I've made a lot of money off their research.
So anyway, Benchmark Report lot. And I've made a lot of money off their research. So anyway,
benchmark report was the reason I initiated. But when I read the report, they just made,
they made a good argument and they just said, look, we think this thing has the ability to move because it's small and highly shorted. And that's it. You know, it's a 500 million market cap with
30% short interest. And they're the first Michael Saylor disciples is the first publicly traded
company after MSTR to go into Bitcoin treasure. Right. So they're like the first baby of MSTR,
if you will, the first child, you know, is it going to go to 100 billion market cap like MSTR?
Of course not. They don't have nearly as much Bitcoin but you know can it make a run i think so so we're long on that one i have a nice cushion on it now
um what are we i am my cost basis is 40 55 so i'm up 14 and a half percent but um i like it i'm
gonna rock with it and see how it performs i'll you know i'll be cautious with it i'm sure it'll
pull back after a day like today. It's up 15% today.
So I'll probably pull back a little bit.
But I think it's a good proxy to Bitcoin.
I think if Bitcoin keeps soaring, I think it'll act like a proxy.
So basically a bet on that, I think, is just a bet on Bitcoin's momentum.
And if Bitcoin comes back down, then obviously that will come down as well.
So be knowledgeable about that. I just looked at those charts. you know if bitcoin comes back down then obviously you know that will come down as well so be uh
you know knowledgeable about that i just looked at those charts indi and smlr and they're both
beautiful man it's insane yeah and indy is i like the way indy's building you know people get
impatient as they always do with my ideas and then they see them ripped 50 but they're like oh
but um yeah indy's been building, you know?
Like, it's just building here beautifully.
Like, yeah, I caught this 90MA a few times.
Like, whatever.
It's holding the 21 very strongly, holding the 200 break,
just consolidating here.
It needs to rip through four, and I want to see more volume.
That's what I really want to see.
I would upsize it if more volume came in.
It's not a crazy big position for me don't mind asking what was the note on
this one it was from also from benchmark with an $8 price target and it was it's
funny I brought that note up when I read that note there's always something that
stands out to me right like something has to be special about it the interesting
thing about that note was this quote. Let me go back to it.
I have it in my notes, so I can just pull it up real quick.
He reads it every single night when it's not about $4.
Whoa, Pete, Seth.
Oh, hold on.
I didn't see this come out 10 minutes ago.
Give me a second.
Significant increase in drone production and deployment. Oh, my god. Is Kratos soaring or what?
It's only up 1%.
AVAV soaring then.
Sorry, I need to look at this because this story just came out. Give me a second. Fuck. I was going to buy this. I might still buy it.
Okay. Since you guys always get the calls late, I might buy some AVAV calls tomorrow.
We'll see. I'm not going to buy the stock though, but I might buy some AVAV calls tomorrow.
We'll see. Anyway, Indie Note, yeah. Let me see here.
Indy Note, so, yeah.
They should partner with Ukraine. I bet you there's
going to be some good Ukrainian drone companies, maybe.
This war ends a certain
way. Yeah, dude,
drones are a fantastic investment.
Everyone should have exposure to drones.
That's why I own Kratos.
Drones are just
are going to be everything in military spending in like 20 years and people these things are
obvious and then people don't see them coming it just makes me laugh um but yeah you should
everyone should have investments in some kind of drone company i think kratos and air environment
are probably the best but i think kratos is better by a margin because of their other opportunities
in supersonics and hypersonics and missile defense. But anyway, I can go for an hour on mid-cap defense.
We'll probably get into that later.
Maybe I'll talk a little bit about it at the end of the space.
But on Indy, the thing that interested me in the know was this quote.
They said yesterday we had the opportunity to meet with Indy's CEO
and their EVP of corporate development.
And we came away with interesting takeaways from the conversation.
They talk first paragraph about ADAS market expansion of China.
They talk about separate second paragraph about how multi-year investments might start to finally generate revenue.
But then in the third paragraph, they say this.
And in the third paragraph, they say this highlighted by no fewer than 10 separate professions of confidence in the company's ADAS ramp.
What the fuck does that mean?
I read that and I was like, what does that mean?
Highlighted by no fewer than 10 separate professions.
Like, does that mean somebody told them something?
Like that 10 separate people told
them that the eight ass business is going to ramp in q4 but that line in the note made me buy it but
anyway people like i talk a lot about sell side research so that's just a little tidbit i guess
there for type of language i look for but yeah that's why i bought it because that thought that
was weird as fuck like why would they i don't you analysts don't say that you don't say
we met with the the we met with the ceo and by the way he gave us a profession of confidence that
the adas ramp is coming in q4 like what the hell like i so i think the reason they said highlighted
by 10 professions of confidence is because they didn't want to say that the management told them
that but i think the management told them that so the management is telling benchmark that they're gonna ramp the business in q4 and the stock is 28 short above the 200 day which is a
head scratcher so yeah anyway if that thing gets a big volume bar i'll probably size up on it but
i do have a position as i've been talking about i think i talked about it what on these spaces a
couple weeks ago and then evan complained that it was like red red by a couple percent the next day or something. Anyway.
Genius or Indy?
It was an interesting opportunity.
It's part of my short interest basket.
As always, all the high short interest names I talk about, guys, are very high risk.
So be mindful of that.
They're going to be volatile.
They're going to go red, green, red, green.
They're going to give you a headache.
They're going to shake you off the 9 EMA.
They're going to have, like, that's how these stocks act.
They don't want to,
if it's easy to capture a 30% explosion in
a stock, then everyone would capture them and we'd all be rich and none of you would be on these
spaces looking for stock ideas, right? But those stocks are meant to shake people out. Bloom Energy
did this before it ripped. I learned my lesson with Coors and didn't get shaken out of that one.
And then we caught the 20% one-day rip in Bloom Energy. Keep in mind, we got into 2052,
had to deal with a couple weeks of CHOP.
Who cares?
Then you capture a 30% move.
The options were up like 600%.
That's the type of SHOP that changes your portfolio, guys.
People wonder, like, Stock Talk, how's your portfolio?
How did it go up 32% in three weeks?
It's like, because of that kind of stuff.
Because I'm just locked and loaded in a bunch of these plays.
And then, boom, one blows up.
Boom, the other blows up.
Like last week, B blew up for us.
Then CRISPR blew up for us.
And I was like loaded on those, just waiting.
5% out of the money calls, three months out.
Equity loaded.
Wait for the consolidation.
Wait for the explosion.
Offload the calls.
Ride the equity.
Find a stock that's consolidating and a hot theme with high short interest, load calls, load 5% out of the money calls, three months out, sell the calls, keep the equity, repeat.
Like, that's all I do.
Like, I really don't try to make it seem like rocket science to you guys because it's not.
Because it's not.
Like, some of you hear me saying it up there, you're like, it's not really that simple, is it? It is really that simple.
It is really that simple. The hardest thing is the I, the instinct. Like I have good instinct.
Okay. But that instinct has been developed over trading thousands of stocks like i i do this
every day for the last you know 12 plus years of my like in my entire adult life i've been doing
this every day so yeah my instinct is good like sometimes i look at a chart and i'm just like
that's gonna go up and that's usually all i need like Like once somebody tells me, like I usually am curious about a few things.
What theme are they in?
What industry are they in?
What's the short interest?
What does the chart look like?
If you gave me those four things,
I can make a discernible high probability decision
on most stocks.
I don't even know anything else.
So you don't know what they,
what industry are they in?
Like what do they kind of do?
maybe I'd ask for what the
margin is like if you had to get if I if you had to give me five data points I'd
be like okay what's the company's margin profile what's the chart look like what
is the theme what's the short interest and you know what's the catalyst that's
it and if it those things are like cool with me I'm like thumbs up ready for
ignition I'm buying it if it doesn't work it doesn't work it i lose what like i go into three and a half percent starter position seven percent
on high conviction plays if i lose i'm wrong i lose half a percent of the portfolio where other
stuff is already going up so net net the weighting change isn't even going to be half a percent like
it's nothing being wrong is a nothing burger this is the thing that people don't get about markets
everyone thinks there's so much risk in markets.
There's not.
If you're a good trader, there's not.
There's not.
You control the risk.
You know, like if you take a stab at a stock and it doesn't work and you want to decide, well, okay, it didn't work.
You're out for a fucking haircut.
Like what's the big deal?
Without taking those shots, you're not going to ever hit anything.
You know, you're not going to hit any fucking famous line.
You're going to miss 100% of shots you don't take, right?
Michael Scott.
But, yeah, like, you have to throw darts.
You have to.
I actually talked about this yesterday when I was talking about my Q1 performance. I talked about how my Q1 performance is always choppy. That's by design.
You know, some people will say, oh, dude, by design, you want to underperform? No, it's not
that I want to underperform in the first quarter. Even last year, a lot of stuff I owned was up in
Q1. I still had a choppy quarter. Why? Because I'm throwing darts in Q1. I'm taking stabs saying, will this work? Will this theme work this year? You know, will these
leadership stocks start moving up, merging above the 200 at the beginning of the year? Oh no.
Okay. It's not going to work. All right. Take some haircuts, take some small losses.
And then I build a group that is going to win. Right? Like my aerospace and defense basket this
year. Right? I took a lot
of it off, but it was like eight names deep at the start of the year and they all fucking ripped,
like absolutely ripped. And so I took off like six or seven names, but that was a huge booster
for my performance in the front half of the year. And then I rotated into other names,
like data center and nuclear, which also ripped, right? So these thematic rotations is what
is driving a lot of my performance and the ability to capture them. But you have to have
good instinct for that. And instinct only comes from doing all these small things,
these small annoying things that I rant about to you guys every day on these spaces.
That is where instinct is born. Instinct is born in the minutia, in the little garbage
bullshit that you have to do, because then eventually you won't have to do it.
Eventually you're like, I don't need that layer of data anymore because you've, you've immersed
yourself in that minutia so much that it's in, it's effortless to you. Like I'll go through my
portfolio sometimes when I'm like walking Leo and make my changes for the day. Like I'll have my headphones in. I'll be walking Leo. I'll be
listening to music like in the early afternoon or in the morning. And this is not the walk I do at
the start of these spaces, like earlier in the morning. And I'll be like, oh, I need to trim
this. I need to add this. Cool. Quick note here. Boom note here boom boom boom I'll do like six clicks and it's done and I put my phone back in my
pocket right a newbie trader will open up like you know I have like 25 positions
right now if a new newbie trader opened up 25 positions they'd lose their
fucking mind right they wouldn't even know what to do is you just you're
froze by inaction because you just see a bunch of numbers on your screen right
but over time with instinct you flip through that and you're like no no no
yeah oh trim there
okay add here roll these into equity what's the buying power look like okay move that
dude it's so funny i do the exact same thing dude and i i actually have more positions which is not
a good thing but i i do the basket approach you do more like let me pick the one name in the space
which which would probably get me down to where you're at in terms of number of positions but
i do the exact same thing like look at the chart real quick. Oh wait look this lost the 21 ema
It's about to close under it. I can cut this one
Hey look this one's you know approaching the 21 ema or 90 ema and it's on low volume
Perfect good place to add this one looks overextended just ran 20% in three days. It could easily rest
Maybe I'll trim a little bit. Yeah, perfect
Yeah, exactly just being able to like do that effortlessly is a huge part of portfolio management and again a lot of you out there may not have this problem
because you may not have a million position sorry I'm opening a protein
shake you might not have this problem it was a bag of skittles i'm actually in the same room skittles
i wish it was skittles dude i'm gonna cut right now if i could eat skittles oh my god i would
love skittles actually before the gym skittles aren't bad i do eat candy before the gym sometimes
good simple carb but anyway what was i saying oh yeah some people don't feel like they have to worry about this because they don't have a lot of positions.
So they're like, oh, I only have two or three positions, so I don't have to worry about position management.
Yeah, you don't, but then you also don't really have to worry about active trading much either.
I'm trying to speak to the crowd because I imagine most of you who are out there are active.
I don't know why else you'd be listening to the show.
But even if you're not active and you're listening to the show, thank you for listening.
We welcome everyone.
But I think most people who spend their time on Fintwit are active and are buying and selling stocks, right?
That's the definition of active, by the way.
I know some people like to fight this definition
because they want to be like considered investors they consider it as a badge of honor
because like a cohort on twitter that's like don't call me a traitor i'm an investor how dare
you call me a traitor right like those people everyone's a traitor dude everyone it's just
your time horizon that's it like to, sorry to burst your bubble.
If you thought like Ben Graham is going to be disappointed to you in some or something,
everyone's a trader, you know, you're buying and selling individual stocks at your discretion.
That is trading. That's, that's what that is. It's not like investing is not like the secret
formula of like, um,
like buying and holding forever in perpetuity.
Like till your great grandkids inherit the stock.
There's gonna be moments in your life where you sell a stock.
Does that mean you didn't invest in it?
Or does it mean you didn't trade it?
Like people are obsessed with these like,
fucking badges that they wear on Twitter.
Like that they think it's like some kind of classification G for pilot
classification or something like, no, dude, you're a, everyone's a trader.
Your time horizons are just dramatically different from each other.
That's it.
You know, I guess unless you're a Bitcoin maxi,
who's putting all your money into Bitcoin and you're never going to sell
Bitcoin in your life, then maybe, but yeah, you're all traders. Sorry to break it to
you. Don't tell your mother I said that. But yeah, that's just true. Anyway, what else are
we going to touch on? Oh yeah, Joby, which we picked up recently. This thing's been a monster.
They actually had a catalyst recently that I didn't even know. When we got into Joby,
I did not get into it because of a catalyst catalyst we actually owned archer previously or i owned archer previously
and this thing was just annoying me like every time it's set up it was just popping into the
11s and like fading back and actually looks better now technically because the 50 day is
caught up so it actually looks better now um but i only want one stock for e-vital exposure i don't
want to like a big basket of eVTOL exposure or anything.
And King Tut, who's a good buddy of mine from back in the SPAC days,
we used to trade SPACs together five years ago.
I can't believe it's been five years since the SPAC era, guys.
You're so old.
Honestly, have you stopped and thought about that?
Just as a side note.
No, it's crazy.
It's crazy, dude. I mean, I didn't realize
it's been five years since I started
Stock Talk, honestly. That's kind of crazy to think
about. Dude, Stock Talk. We've been doing this
for two and a half
for a year? I mean, I've been doing spaces
with you and Wolf since the inception of
Spaces, so that was longer than that. But
this space specifically, yeah, it's been, what,
two and a half?
Oh, it's always like when the E-Town was created. Yo, Stock Talk. This drone news, man, it's been, what, two and a half? Oh, it's only slipped when the E-cat was created.
Yo, Stock Talk, because of this drone news, man,
I'm seeing Red Cat RCAT is, like, probably one of the top gainers,
got to be, plus 17% after hours.
Dude, I just looked up that chart.
Man, that thing was just waiting for any bit of news.
If you look at this stuff and you think technicals don't matter, it's insane.
This thing just basically slowly drifted,
and it basically held the 200 day-to-day perfectly
and now it's up 17% after.
It's kind of crazy.
Oh my God, dude.
If I had seen that chart going into today.
I know, man.
Oh, that's a beautiful chart.
That's exactly my type of setup right there.
Right on the 200 day with 921 overhead.
All these charts look so good on the drone stocks they look like really good i have like 11 stocks on my drone watch list here
they all look fantastic shit onds is another one that was pretty popular that one has been
riding the night yeah dude they do offerings like every week yeah i agree crazy yeah management team
I hate management teams that don't let stocks run.
I hate that behavior.
Like, let your stock run, dude, and then do it when your stock is doubled,
then do your offering.
So what's your thought here on this?
Is it ABAV or do you like your Kratos? I mean, I like to go with the quality plays in aerospace and defense
because, like, I'm a big believer in mid-cap aerospace and defense, as you know, and I want to keep those stocks.
So Kratos, to me, is the winning play in the whole thing.
Kratos just – the thing with Kratos is – so recently, a couple years ago, Kratos made this investment in this company called Florida Turbine Technologies, FTTK.
If I had to pick a sub-$ billion asset and it was actually sub $500 million
dollar asset at the time I think maybe even less than that they acquired it for
I had to pick a sub $500 million defense asset in the country that is the most
valuable I would pick Florida turbine technologies like they are now all these
supersonic engines that are getting built boom air boom supersonic which we
talked about even a starfighters who we talked about with with evan
and wolf we went to all see them they were the small uh company that raised money they um
trained boom summer supersonics pilots but anyway these supersonic engines are built by florida
turbine technologies like kratos is in supersonic and hypersonic flight, missile defense, drones, autonomous planes,
autonomous vehicles, and autonomous robots.
And all of them defense specialized.
Like it is, I frankly don't understand
how it's not double the market cap.
I just think that the premium is lacking,
but it's been a great performing stock this year.
It's been one of my best performers this year.
You know, the one thing I regret is I had a boatload of $30 calls that expired in May.
And I just sold them for a huge profit and didn't exercise them.
And I regret that deeply, deeply regret that.
Because I had $30 calls expiring in May that I bought for like $0.80.
I would have gotten the stock at $30.80 in May. It's like
a $45 stock now.
Interesting news. Boyd Gaming
to sell FanDuel Interest for $1.775
Wait, who? Wait, what?
Boyd Gaming to sell
FanDuel Interest for
$1.8 billion. Oh, I heard
Flutter was buying interest.
Well, what if Flutter was buying interest. Well, what if
Flutter is selling?
So is it Flutter buying it from them?
There was a report earlier today that
Flutter was buying interest.
Hold on. Let me see this.
All I know is this report just came out that
Boy Gaming is selling it. Yeah, I just see it.
FDA also approved
I don't know if this is Merck company
Merck Animal Health
They're buying I think
Is that just an exchange
of steak Could be Is that just an exchange of
They do those secondary things, share sales,
where the company doesn't
I guess this could
be considered a share buyback.
The headline I saw earlier said Flutter
was going to buy a stake for
$2.5 billion or something.
5% and this is a sale of $1.7 billion.
I don't know.
That's just weird to see those headlines back-to-back.
But, yeah, Kratos is, in my opinion,
the best mid-cap defense company in the world,
and I think it's going to be much bigger in 10 years, like much bigger.
So it's a core position for me.
But, yeah, in terms of short-term plays,
probably RCAT and UMAC are going to run the hardest.
Those 10 run the hardest.
I think Ons was probably one of the top catalyst performers for a while,
but they keep fucking dropping offerings like it's nobody's business.
So I don't know if I want to play with that one.
But Chard does look good.
They all look good, dude.
They all look great.
Should have looked more at these guys today.
There's just so much, like, opportunity in this market and so much going on oh man that's why I have I don't want to say a lot how many names I have I mean I have
too many names too and like it's just I have too many names
sometimes it's a good thing it's sometimes it's a bad thing but like right now
right now a lot of stuff looks yeah exactly right now it works dude and also like i'm running a
pretty levered book so it's like i have way less blow up risk with like the you know smaller size
positions because then like if i have some sort of binary event on any given holding then it's
not going to be detrimental to my portfolio if i'm this levered yeah it's been it's been working
beautifully um for now.
And obviously, you know, when the drawdowns come,
they'll be steeper because of it.
But I'm in the same boat as you.
I'm obviously levered long as well and have a lot of positions.
Not as many as you, but I have a lot.
And I think, I don't know, I'll get to the point soon where some of these contracts will be coming up for expiry
and I'll have to make a decision.
And that's one thing I like about having like options, compliments on a lot of my positions is because it sort of acts as a I talked yesterday a lot about psychology and these sort of like psychological self-help things you can do in trading and investing.
One of the things I like to do is I like to pair my trades, my trades, not my investments.
My investments are almost always all equity, but sometimes I'll get leaps.
But I like to pair them with my trades with options, right?
Because usually the option in terms of the dollar allocation, right, is not high, right?
It's like 80 to 90% of the position and options tend to, I mean, in equity, 10 to 20% of the position and options.
90% of the position and options tend to, I mean, in equity, 10 to 20% of the position
and options.
But what I do, what I like to do is, you know, buy, I generally buy less than 10% out of
the money, preferably even closer to the money if I can get it.
Yeah, I get like 60 delta or something.
That's usually what I aim for.
I go five to 10% out of the money, 30 to 90 days out generally on trades, on trades,
not on investments and stuff i'm going you
know year plus out but um if i am getting options but anyway what i do is i well i lost my train of
thought oh yeah i get options 5 10 money out 30 16 and 90 days out and i pair them with the equity
so that when those options are approaching expiry it's sort of like a mental alarm for my position.
Like, hey, this coming up to decision time for the remainder of these options, are you going to sell them for a profit?
Are you going to exercise some of them?
What are you going to do with the equity?
So it sort of brings urgency to me from a decision making standpoint of like, OK, we got to figure out what we're doing here.
of like, okay, we got to figure out what we're doing here. And in that moment, I make decisions
about the longer term portfolio. So it's a trading position initially. I have options 30 to 90 days
out. I have equity. As we approach the expiration of those options, I go, okay, is this going to
remain what it was, a trading position, or is it going to graduate to something more in the portfolio? And that's how I lay these seeds along the way that become stalwarts in the portfolio,
like Tesla and Amazon in 2015, 2016, which carried my portfolio for years, right? The Robinhood at
the beginning of 2024, which carried my portfolio, not carried, but did a lot of work for my portfolio
last year and did a lot of work for my portfolio this year. Centris Energy and NBIS at the beginning of this year,
not beginning, but a month ago, month and a half ago, we have done huge work for my portfolio.
If you look at my portfolio performance in the last month and a half on the chart, it's like
huge explosion, right? That came from LEU and MBIS. So through trading, through swing trading,
I end up leaving some seeds along the way and some positions that mature into much bigger
positions. And those are real performance accelerators. So that's why I like to do that.
I like to pair my positions with options because it's sort of this mental clock. And once I get to
that expiry, I start going, what am I going to do here? You know? And sometimes I'll choose to exercise them. Like with Robinhood, I had 15
and 20 calls that were leaps that I had bought at the beginning of last year. And when the expiry
rolled out in December of last year, I had to decide, do I want to just sell these? And it was
a big profit, like I'm not going to say dollar amount, but it was a very big
profit because the stock was like $60.
And I had a ton of $10 and $15 and $20 calls.
So I go, do I sell them all or do I sell a little bit of them and exercise the rest?
And I chose to do that.
I chose to sell enough of them.
They were up like thousands of percent.
So I sold enough of them to cover the cost, which wasn't very many, and I exercised the rest. And then I had a very large Robinhood position with a 1974 cost basis with the stock trading 60 plus, and now it's trading 100.
how you do it. That's how you build a portfolio. And the mistake that a lot of traders make is
they don't leave any seeds. They're just all cash at the end of a quarter or all cash at the end of
the day. That is not the right way to build a portfolio. I don't care what anyone says.
And I'm not knocking anyone's style. I know there's people out there. I'm a day trader.
That's what I do.
I'm all cash at the end of every day.
I live a more stress-free life that way.
I think that's a more stressful life actually.
Cause you're missing out on massive compounding upside all the time.
Markets just trend up.
If you don't,
if you don't,
it's much harder to get long than it is to stay long.
Much harder.
In fact, probably a magnitude harder to get long than stay long.
Think about that.
You have to find an entry.
You have to find the right stocks.
You ideally wait for a pullback.
Who knows when that comes?
Sometimes you're like, oh, if stocks extended off the 921, you may not wait for a pullback who knows when that comes you know sometimes you're like all stocks extended off the 921 you may have wait for a pullback stock goes up another 60 percent now your pullback is
40 percent higher on the share price like you know sometimes you sometimes in the in the effort
of waiting for a pullback the stock doubles so staying invested is just easier it's an easier
way to win at this game you don't sell out you
never sell out of your core positions never in april i was negative i was negative on the market
in february very negative when the tariff news came out i was like we can't sustain these tariffs
thank god that changed but i was very negative on the market in late February after the deep seek sell off. And I didn't sell any of my core positions.
I sold some trades.
I had to cut them because I bought them recently.
And below my cost basis, I don't bag hold.
But I didn't sell any of my core positions.
I didn't sell a single share.
Thank God I didn't sell a single share of Robinhood.
Thank God.
That thing came down a lot. of Robinhood. Thank God. That thing came
down a lot, but look where it is now. Um, but yeah, I didn't sell anything. And the people who
get shaken out of markets, just you, you, it's not fun. If you get fully shaken out of markets,
you're all cash. You have to get back in. It makes the whole game harder all over again,
harder all over again because now in the next big market crash you're gonna be red on everything
because now in the next big market crash, you're gonna be red on everything.
you know you'll be red on everything if you if you wait like let's say you wait till a pullback
let's say you're all cash right now and you're like i'm gonna get into the market on the next
pullback you get in on the next pullback what if that pullback leads to a market crash now you're
just fucked but on the contrary if you got long ago, like many of the people on this panel did, and you have your portfolio that's been long for years, not only have you made a shitload of money already, but you have very deep cost bases.
You know, like no matter what happens to the market, I don't think Robinhood's ever going back to 19 bucks.
Maybe I'll be wrong, but I don't think it's going back there.
Okay, no matter what happens.
So I laid a seed last year and I have a cost basis that I'll never get again.
You know, Tesla, my cost base is under $20. I don't know what, what's going to happen with
Tesla, but do you think it's going back to $20? I don't think so. So that's like a seed I laid
five or six years ago. That's, you know, you know, actually much longer than that, eight years ago, eight, nine years ago, that is much bigger now, you know, or Amazon.
Like these things are just, they're not going to go back to my cost basis.
And so they'll just stay in my portfolio and they'll just keep growing and growing and growing over the long run.
I don't have to worry about timing them.
I don't have to worry about like getting in and out of them.
They're just going to grow.
You know, I'll wake up one day and Robin will be $300 a share and I'll be like, that was easy. I didn't have to worry about timing them. I don't have to worry about getting in and out of them. They're just going to grow. I'll wake up one day and Robin will be $300 a share.
I'll be like, that was easy.
I didn't ever do anything.
And so that's the game.
You trade, yes, you should trade.
If you want to accelerate your performance, you should trade.
It takes a lot of effort.
But yeah, if you want to accelerate your performance, really outperform and be rewarded for outperformance,
then yeah, you have to do a little bit of active management. But remember, trading doesn't mean day trading. It doesn't
mean selling stuff one day after you buy it. Trading just means actively managing. That's
all it means. And if you want to actively manage, you have to do it in this sort of way. If you want
to have a portfolio that actually builds, because otherwise you're just going to end up with,
you know, no long-term stocks and, you know know the stress of having to wait for a setup every time
you could do that with some portion of your money like there's stocks that i trade that i talk about
here all the time i do that with a portion of my capital but the intention is to leave these nest
eggs in great stocks that will build over time and that you won't have to worry about come
five years from now. And they'll go up and down in corrections and they'll have their bad quarters
and they'll have bad earnings reports and you'll have to deal with that and you'll see your net
worth shake a little bit. It's part of the game. But you're not going to have to worry about
why it happened because the stocks that you own for these long periods of time,
you own with conviction or else you don't own them for long periods of time.
It shouldn't be every stock you buy.
It should be the names that build a case to you,
either thematically or opportunistically.
So anyway, I know we're coming
into the end here um but yeah if you guys want to check out the community like i said it's our um
final sale for the community before prices go up on september 1st and um this is the last day to
get it expires at midnight code is us of a uh you can see the link above it's the pinned post yeah if you
want to come trade with me and logical and see our portfolios and see everything
we do live and what we call out and when we call it out and why we call it out
come hang out with us and I don't think you'll be disappointed because we have thousands of happy members
aren't disappointed so
Come check us out. I
We will see you guys
Go for a logical you're not something. I just actually posted my most recent
Portfolio update. I just pinned it in my profile
Obviously you're gonna see it be like dude what the hell you can't be serious you have this many positions and
I'm very like meticulous I'm very detail-oriented I write little blurbs
on them so you know if you're interested in that kind of thing follow me because
I do these pretty frequently I don't know how much longer I'll keep doing
these outside of like like just doing it on Twitter and whatnot probably maybe
at some point switch it over to members
as I was saying earlier.
But if you're interested in the kinds of things
that I'm trading and how I think about stuff
and how I have different themes in my portfolio as well,
I show allocations, et cetera.
I'm very, very, very transparent with all these things.
So anyways, I just wanted to say that
because I literally just posted it.
But anyways, cheers.
Yep. Well, like I said, we share our But anyway, cheers. Yep.
Well, like I said, we share our performance,
we share everything we do.
So, you know, if you guys are interested in that
and not interested in all the other garbage
that's on Twitter with people doing call-outs
and look at my idea and look at the shiny thing,
if you want to just trade with mature traders
that know what they're doing,
come hang out with us.
You'll probably have a good time doing it.
So we'll see you guys next week.
Either way,
a lot of great opportunities out there.
A lot of great stocks out there.
take advantage of it.
We'll see you guys next week.
Take it easy. Thank you.