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STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: May 19, 2025 Duration: 2:01:03Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic crypto landscape, partnerships and funding initiatives are on the rise, with a new grant program and token launches set to invigorate the market. Institutional investment trends are also reshaping the narrative, driving significant growth and interest in digital assets.
Full Transcription
Thank you. what is up team happy monday may the 19th it's power hour that means one thing and one thing
only stocks on spaces stock market talk with the whole crew as uh they slowly join in up here. We've got a nice panel lined up today. What's up, Evan?
Yo, yo.
How are you?
Did your portfolio get green?
I'm doing well.
My portfolio, it was green.
It is now red a little bit.
We'll see how we end up closing today.
I was told we're going to close green by Tom Lee.
But my Honeywell calls are looking decent today, and Uber One's doing okay. So some of the names that, that like on the short-term traders that i have right now are are doing okay but um this is a small part of the
portfolio yeah i mean that's the story pretty much of the day we are at break even from friday's
close qqq spy is up like 17 cents so pretty much uh went a long way to go nowhere on that moody's
headline i'm interested
to see everyone's thoughts about that. And obviously hindsight is part of it, but will
there be any effects going forward? Got some questions too, but Scott, we've got you up here.
Love it when you join us on these Mondays, see if you want to lead us off a little bit here with
some thoughts. Sure. First of all, happy Monday and I hope everyone had a great weekend.
Kind of cute how they gave everybody a kiss goodbye on Friday, right?
What time did they come out? Around five and change.
But the Moody's downgrade and at least it happened to give everyone a little time to think about, you know, where they're at, what their time frame is.
Do a little research on what happened, you know, way back when and see how things changed.
Or you could have just really went about your weekend i was at a spooky nook pennsylvania my son was playing u16 basketball so i basically said to everyone just real real quickly on friday i'm
like guys if the spies hold 583 to 585 it doesn't matter and you could have done 25 hours of research
or you could have just had a good weekend, come in
and say, hey, you know what the spies, you know, where 588 reclaimed 589, which is Friday's low.
The Qs didn't even get to the eight day. Like the eight day is where like strong markets hold,
where momentum is there in the Qs. The eight day is down towards, you know, 511, and it also reclaimed 5.15 real fast. And the strongest stocks went green
first. So it could have been like a predatory move. They could have surprised the bulls. They
could have trapped any late buyers and not let people out. But I would say most things, even if
they didn't go green, they went green a little bit, and they gave you ways to trade around it,
which is all you can ask for as a trader when you follow the rules and something happens that you're not expecting like the mood is downgraded
and then all of a sudden you are able to um you know just make adjustments so uh the market kind
of gave everyone a way to make adjustments some things were better than others and um i don't
know what it's going to take for them to uh them to open us lower and keep us lower and get the sellers back in control.
It didn't happen.
Lots of names that we've been discussing here had really good moves.
You know, Scott, just one comment on that.
It feels like the market, and we've talked about this in the past, and I'm kind of regurgitating what someone else said,
but the market can really handle any one thing if it's just like that one thing that it's focused on,
like,
yeah,
maybe go sideways,
maybe goes down,
but once it's like two,
three,
four different sideways things,
that's when we get these things.
So I don't know if,
you know,
we don't hear anything over the next week or so,
like this Moody's thing alone clearly wasn't enough.
But yeah.
Well,
you can add a few things though.
You know,
you had rates above where it was you had
no japanese deal no india deal you know a little upset of at apple with alibaba there was like
four or five different pieces of news that the bears were piling on and they had a chance to
you know to to break the upper area and start a new retracement and i guess you know it just
didn't happen today but but i i hear you i guess you need a few in a row likeacement and I guess you know it just didn't happen today but but I hear you
I guess you need a few in a row like a few you know you need some body blocks and then you need
an upper hook you know before finally you know you know this strong fighter that's been in control
goes down that's what happens usually um so yeah I hear you I came in prepared to have a really
bad day and I was a little upset I'm like damn I don't have enough hedges on damn I hear you. I came in prepared to have a really bad day, and I was a little upset. I'm like, damn, I don't have enough hedges on.
Damn, I'm in some catch-up plays that when you finally turn lower,
they get hit harder.
But then today I was pleasantly surprised.
If you were overhedged in a spider short or a queue short,
because sometimes traders do that, you were able to get out.
The big names that we were talking about last week that I know I'm hyper focused on uber
You know uber closed great. It's up 60 cents gave you a way to buy a dip and trade around the dash
Closed well, you know, it was down below 200 went green gave you a way to trade around it Robinhood
I know a lot of people have been all over that the last four to six weeks
Even the video went green
You know palatir and Tesla kind of they they're they're
a little tricky at times so they didn't quite give everyone a way out of it but there was a
lot to like and then microsoft which has been best in breed since the numbers went green first to
also give you some clues um you know bitcoin they tried to smother the move and it went from red to
green and it's a little off highs but it it looks like, you know, Bitcoin's ready to take out that 108,
109,
you know,
sooner than later,
they could have easily sold that too.
bears had their,
you know,
they say a bear's chance.
Well,
the bears had a pretty decent chance today after a five,
six week move.
and they didn't really have much power.
These bears suck,
Scott.
Every chance they, they they uh they just don't seem to capitalize i don't know like that's the theme are we going back to all-time highs
um listen i you know i think those kind of questions are like funny questions for you
know cnbc or whatnot it's just really like where do we hold and how do we trade and you know how could you stay with it like I'm sure there are a lot of guys that wound up in the
first little while maybe getting stopped out of some longs because they had too many or just
didn't maneuver right because they were over their skis so at this point I would say if you're
managing a bunch of positions and and today you were able to add to them things acted
well stay with them if some's acted a little faulty like i get every i like in the morning i
said now you get rid of a few things you're uncommitted to they gave you kind of a little
shot across the bow where it's been really easy um to the upside so now it's like hey if you were
really upset and you gave back too much of your month in may or maybe you know the past few months
then reduce a little bit and just try and play a little smaller because it's going to get
harder. I said last week, I don't think we're going to be making new all-time highs, you know,
by the summertime. And I don't think so, but, you know, that's just a call and how things trade and
how you execute is different than a call. That's like the same thing. So are we going to retest the lows?
I'm like, well, let's break the 8 and 21 day first
and the spies and the queues.
And then let's talk about whether or not,
you know, we could retest the lows.
I did sell the blood on the street account.
You know, I'm still putting every, you know,
monthly inflow into the 401k, but trading is different.
You know, today I almost, I was a little worried
that I would be giving back a third of what I made
because I had too much on and didn't happen.
So now I'm thinking about where I really want to be focused on.
So if that happens again, shame on me the next time they don't let me out.
Let me ask one more follow-up here, Scott, and I'm going to try to get everyone's thoughts on this.
Market, essentially, flat to op.
I guess you could call it op if you wanted to.
VIX op, yield's up, mortgage rate's at 7%.
Gold is up.
Something's got to give, right?
Today could be a false sense of security.
It does look like a lot of the macro is pointing to lower prices.
I'm not really saying the market's up, but the market from 5.88 to 5.94 in the spies, to me, that's up.
Even the IWM that didn't really quite go green, I thought it would be down six points today.
It's down $1.43, down not even 0.68%.
To me, that's a way to salvage things without getting a blanket sell. So if you are
bearish and you think that VIX up, gold up, wherever the 30 year is, and the TLT's reclaimed
85. That was the magic spot this morning of open below 85, which was that double bottom,
and they could have easily kept it down below that. And if they would have, there was no way
this market was going to lift, but then they couldn't keep rates you know where they were and
the tlt lifted and that gave a little bit of the computers i guess the the program computers are
right to to buy you know it was a little red dog reversal which is an affectionate term that i have
when a prior low gets reclaimed and there's no power to keep it below. But yeah, there's no reason to be all in here.
And if you are in the bearish case, just do it in ways where your risk is defined.
I know a lot of people are still rolling up shorts pre-Geneva.
And they're wishing for bad news and they're hating life and they're not enjoying their weekends because the market's not going down.
And I would hate to go through life that way.
I'd rather be hedged a different way.
Appreciate that, Tay.
Yeah, 10-year is dropping right now.
It's back under 4.5, but we saw it over 4.5 last night.
We saw the 30-year hit 5.0, or just over 5.0.
So a little bit of a pullback intraday, but that's kind of what I was hinting at there.
I was seeing, okay, well, look, something's going to give here, and maybe it's these rates.
I mean, they are pulling back down a little bit today.
Yeah, and the TLT, if you simplify, because sometimes us traders aren't that smart, we
were below 85, we were right around 84.80.
If it stayed below there and the TLTs worked down to 84.5, the spies would not be at 594.
and the TLTs work down to 84 half, the spies would not be at 594.
So sometimes you look for signals versus trying to really overthink it.
I'm not saying you're overthinking.
I'm just saying in general for people listening, especially if you trade actively.
A lot of people came in and they weren't short.
They must have been like, oh my God, I'm going to miss the biggest short.
And they start pressing shorts in the first half an hour, and then we grind up all day.
There's lots of non-fun ways to trade the stock market
also. Not everyone's killing it, even though they say they are on Twitter.
I don't think anybody lost on this app
ever, to be 100% honest. Great take there, Scott.
Sam, let's go ahead and bring you into the conversation here and see what thoughts you have.
I was on the Sunday show yesterday.
Great to speak to you, Scott, again.
You touched on rates, and I found it pretty interesting, especially given the commentary from the Japanese saying that this is worse than the crisis from Greece that they were referring to about a decade
ago where basically the Greek currency just went belly up and it was a form of a massive disaster
when it comes to their bonds and stuff. And I think I wouldn't really say that that was the
bottom, but when you have Japan's 10-year yields just skyrocketing like that and people thinking like, oh, the world is in October of 2023, you had Mike Santoli.
I forget who it was Santoli, but that guy who goes on CNBC and started saying that the 10 year is going to go to 13%.
That was the day it bottomed when the narrative got a little ridiculous as far as how far rates can move after an already large movement rate.
And I'm not saying it's not going to go down any further.
Rick Santelli.
Rick Santelli. There you go. And I'm not saying it's going to go down any further. Sorry,
the rates are not going to go up any further, but just to have that dramatic move, especially
with the bond market and for it to recover this dramatically intraday was actually very
interesting to see. And I agree with you. I mean, I think the equity markets tend to have like a
choking point when rates get a little bit too high from what I've noticed. Like they can
handle it for a little bit. But once you get above 4.5%, especially in the 10 year, that's when
markets tend to kind of slow down a little bit. But we did see that massive reversal today. And I
agree with you. I would attribute that to the reason why the markets basically bounced back,
kind of giving that green light
for a bit of risk on, or at least the melt-up to continue. I mean, I still think we're in some sort
of a melt-up here. You have basically every single bear coming out as soon as the market drops like
1%. But there was a period of time we went through last year where the market didn't drop more than
2% for, I think it was like five or six months. And that record hasn't been breached. I forget exactly when that record
happened, but it was like somewhere around the 2010s when there was barely a pullback in the
S&P 500 for quite some time. And I think given the sentiment, the way the market is right now,
and I wouldn't even say that there's some off-size positioning as well as all these put call ratio charts that I've been seeing over the weekend and so on.
And especially coming from a massive bear market and the recovery in the fastest period in history,
I think we are really setting up for a melt-up and probably at all-time highs. And I'm not saying
that, hey, this is great, let's keep going, but we did have that massive pullback just a couple
of months ago, not less than a couple of months ago. And I feel like there's that recency bias
that a lot of people have. And I'm not saying the people that are on these spaces talking or the
people that are listening, but generally speaking, there seems to be a recency bias where if we just
went through it, then there's very good likelihood we're going to revisit it again.
And the same thing we saw in October 2022 after we made those lows.
What was it? For more than half of 2023, people were thinking we're finally going to get that pullback and make the lower lows around SPX 3500.
And we did have a bit of a pullback starting in late July into October.
And people expected it last year as well.
And that quickly got recovered.
And even though, yeah, we just had a 20% drawdown.
And then all of a sudden, it's like, we've got to revisit it.
How often historically does that happen?
And given today's markets and how algorithms really run about 90% of the market flows,
algorithms really run about 90% of the market flows. The dramatic moves and volatility we see
in both the downside and upside can happen very quickly, especially with the crazy V-shaped
recovery we just had. So I'm not going to sit here and say we're never going to have a drop again,
because it can happen at any time. But there is every reason for the market to pull back.
Every reason for the market to pull a back.
I'm sorry.
Sorry, go ahead. I just want to add something to that,
Go ahead.
I just want to add something to that because I think that's very important.
I know I had actually my worst two weeks in a long time.
I've been doing this for 28 years.
I know I'm very old.
After the August 5th low, I'm sure that's the most recent one.
I like to bring it up sometimes.
That was the August 5th low, if you remember.
We broke the eighth day. I got out of risk pretty well and then i you know i was flattish we played the bottom
really well in august 5th and i right around if you guys are have your charts up right around
august 14th in my head i was like there's no way you know we're gonna we're gonna break back above
you know whatever that was 540 and I was shorting calls. And we went
straight up to 565. And I kept adding premium and I kept shorting more calls. And I had probably my
worst two weeks. And I like to be bullish. Most people call me a permable, which I'm not, I'm a
permatrader. But I'm just saying that happened. So that was miserable for those two weeks. And
then finally, we pulled in a little bit, you know, which wasn't a lot.
And I kind of just reshuffled. And I remember September 11th that day, you know, we had a really big down open.
And then we reclaimed every level. And then I got pretty much just reengaged and back in a rhythm of the tape.
Rhythm of the tape is really important. And then we and then we just kept going up all the way pretty much with a great market all the way up to February. But anyway, all I'm saying is we had that low recently in April,
then we had the higher low on April 21st, and we've been trending and trending. If you are
caught short, the last thing you want to keep doing is just rolling it up based on your view
of the world. Because sometimes your view of the world takes a lot longer for other people to think the same way and you know you don't want to you know you can't be perfect and
there are zones but i'm just saying you know you can't you can't just live that way um rolling
things up waiting and praying and hoping because that in trading doesn't make you money so um i do
think that you know today was a day day that they could have brought us in
and they could have broke us and got people out of trades
and a little bit more defensive and could not.
I'm not saying they can't do it tomorrow.
Maybe today is, you know, let's screw with the momentum trader
and make them all think that everything is, you know, hunky-dory.
But they definitely had a chance.
And if you get a way out, what i would say is just reshuffle your positions
and start doing something a little bit so you're not paralyzed a lot of traders get paralyzed when
they're like oh i had this last week when it was here now it's here i can't do it again you know
if you do it a little bit then then it starts to work out for you then you just feel a little bit
better and then you just start putting trades on versus being paralyzed.
Ariel, great to have you up on the space.
Let's get your thoughts around this conversation.
It looks like Ariel arrived.
Logical, let's go over to you next.
Yeah, I think it's a very strong and resilient market.
We all expected that, you know, after a big run for several weeks,
you know, we were due for a pullback.
And you get news like the Moody's downgrade, which is not insignificant.
I wouldn't, I don't know how significant it is, but it's not insignificant.
And, you know, you basically get red to green.
I don't know.
That's a very strong market to me.
You get, you know, a debt downgrade and then you have 10 year, basically the yields falling throughout the day down from, you know, 4.5, 6 to 4.47. I mean, that's notable, right? Like on a debt downgrade,
look at TLT, almost back to green on the day. I don't know, market's kind of telling you something.
And I think what it's telling you is that if you are able to basically push from red to green
basically push from red to green on, on, on bonds on a debt downgrade.
I don't know. Isn't that,
isn't that pretty telling that what's been priced in at this point has markets
basically telling you, yeah, like we know that the debt is basically at, um,
double a, not triple a. And, you know,
two other agencies have had a double a rating for some time now. So I don't know if you'd call this a nothing burger.
But yeah, I don't know.
Very strong market.
I continue to add to names, honestly.
I'm extremely, extremely long in this market.
Irresponsibly long.
I like a lot of names.
What I do is I diversify.
So I'm up to probably 30 names right now,
which people will say you're crazy. And it's like, yeah, probably. But at the same time,
I'm seeing, you know, a lot of great notes. I'm seeing a lot of, um, you know, bottoming out
charts. I'm seeing, you know, stocks and bases. And now they're at the right side of that base
after, you know, plenty of time and they're showing big volume people buying, um, you know, stock talk posted a note today.
He posted on his Twitter as well as our discord, uh, ticker R X S T R X site.
You know, the, the, the, um, the note on the stock was pretty good.
I mean, the stock's down from the fifties down to 15.
Uh, they had an overweight $25 price target on this thing.
And I'm just looking
at like the fundamentals. I'm a fundamental guy. I'm looking at this thing and it's, you know,
600 mil market cap, 200 million in cash. Squint your eyes and say it's 200 million in sales.
I mean, this thing is trading at two times EV to sales, and they're years ahead in the market with first mover advantage for their product around lenses, contact lenses after eye surgery, etc.
I like the healthcare space.
I've been pounding the table on bios.
I think, you know, XBI, let me check again.
XBI is the only green index from the major indices today.
I really like that.
They're going to do really well if rates are topping here.
So I've just been at like when I see a good, no good bio or healthcare name.
And again, I look at bio stocks as like healthcare growth stocks.
Because look, if you look at the tech names, you look at
the consumer names, I'm not necessarily super bullish there. Um, unless the valuations make
sense to me, there, there's a margin of safety from a valuation perspective and, um, technicals
look good and all that stuff. I think that the large cap names and the very popular growth stocks
have run a lot and it would probably be
healthy to see consolidation there or maybe they just keep leading and go to the upside but
for me i personally try to avoid a lot of the uh popular tickers that said i i do have some
trades on with names like rocket lab which has been holding up really strong um asts kind of
weak today which is not great um i don't like that uh but i was
gonna ask you see anything out on that today because it didn't it was like it was just week
off the bat and then it's just been a week all day hasn't been like that in a while i saw a um
note that basically some director or something wants to sell like 55,000 shares. I mean, that just seems crazy that that would be the reason, like who cares?
But what I would say is that it looks like if it was in a bear flag
and it just broke to the downside, not great.
I'm trying my best not to get scared out of the position.
My calls are definitely hurting today,
but if you look at it from like a horizontal support kind of way,
it looks okay still, but if you look at it from a horizontal support kind of way, it looks okay still.
But there's no sugar coating it.
That chart looks kind of rocky.
But every time I try to time this one and I get in and out of it, it's such a volatile stock.
It'll shake you out and then it'll rip to the upside and things like that.
So I'm trying to be a little bit more patient with it.
But, yeah, it's a little ugly on the price action there um and especially for you logical on that one because it it just broke it
to sending channel so you know if i didn't know the name i would be like that kind of would get
that probably got a lot of momentum guys out but if you look at the horizontal channel that it's
been in for nine months or more that's that's still accumulation it's just it's just a story
hasn't got to a spot where people
feel overly excited that they need to buy it higher and break it out like they're still launching the
the the satellites and their earnings were like you know i'm just saying they they had the app
the money offering which people were pissed off about that you couldn't believe that it raised
money again so although people who like to be rewarded like me short term said up i'm out of
this for a while then it's got to rebuild and get under more accumulation,
clean up guys, and then go again.
So it's just in another two-month horizontal base building
until it's further along its trajectory.
Are you still along this one or are you exited?
I got out of my shares.
I'm in $30 calls, which probably aren't going to work.
I'm in $30 calls as well for July. I saw some decent call volume come in last week, so I followed those, but they absolutely got cooked today.
This type of stock could wake up one day up three. You could have volume, good news with a carry, and boom, it could be up $3, $4, wake up.
volume good news with you know carry and boom it could be up three four dollars wake up so i would
just maybe stay i i've seen that candle coming a few times and it's been very annoying this this
stock where it goes for two days and it teases you and then it just doesn't so i think the way
to do it is like july or september you go 30s you go 32s and you just sit there just in case
it goes when you're not looking because that could happen in a year like this.
Yeah, I'm in the July 30s and I'm thinking maybe buying more time on them and going up to September and rolling up the strikes a little bit.
Try to get the net premium to zero to roll the calls for a little bit more time. Might make more sense because this is the kind of stock where if it works, it's really going to work.
So, you know, a couple bucks on the strike isn't going to matter too much.
But having the extra time might be very valuable. If it works, it's really going to work. So, you know, a couple bucks on the strike isn't going to matter too much. That's true.
But having the extra time might be very valuable.
So something good to consider for sure.
But yeah, so yeah, pretty annoying stock.
Do wish we would reclaim that 50-day at least here at the end of the day.
But yeah, this one is definitely...
I have a few tickers that every time I try to trade them,
I just get like, as soon as I'm like, okay, it's setting up, you know, take a position,
boom, fails. Like very frustrating. I'm at a point where like, I almost want to give up on this
ticker. Um, it's just one of those that I, you know, can't seem to make money on. It's really
frustrating. Um, but you know, a lot of bios looking really good today.
Like I said, RxST looking pretty strong today,
plus 13%.
ARQT, highs of day.
Cure, Unicure, highs of day.
Regenex Bio, highs of day, plus 7%.
Comp, CMPS, Compass Pathways, they have some data coming out in June.
I saw a thread today that was basically saying the FDA commissioner is highly prioritizing psychedelics,
which they have a phase three data coming out soon.
So that stock is up plus 7% today, CMPS.
What else?
There's a lot of SCPH, man.
This stock has been on an absolute tear.
It is up 50 plus percent in the last few days after earnings.
It was actually down in after hours when they reported earnings down 5, 7%.
The next day it was up 20, no, it was
up 30% the next day. It was up 12-14% on Friday, and then it's up another 8% today. So this thing
is very strong, SCPH. Rapid Microbiosystems up highs a day today. So yeah, a lot of the bios are
looking good. Fulgenulgen genetics this is one that
i've traded a long long time ago um and i've been seeing a lot of call volume come in this stock is
really cheap 640 mil market cap um over 800 million dollars in cash so they trade below cash
on the balance sheet uh it's like a genetics testing name.
A lot of call volume.
Very strong stock.
Up 3-4% today at the highs of the day.
They're going to do $300 million in revenue this year.
So trades below cash on the balance sheet.
And they're buying back shares.
I mean, there's just so much value in this market.
And so it's really tough for me
because I don't even know what to do at this point.
I just keep seeing so many good opportunities.
And that's why I just keep getting longer and longer.
So I keep adding more exposure.
And especially in biotechs,
where I feel that the sector is extremely bummed out.
We've had all the worst news in the world.
Rates are as high as they've been.
And you know what?
The stocks are doing well, and they're acting well.
And so I really like that.
The valuations are there.
Can I ask a question, Logical?
Yeah, go ahead.
DMPS, I'm looking at that chart.
I think that chart looks great.
Big volume today.
It's been in a channel for a while now. How well do you know that stock? Do you feel like it might have to raise money soon? If it starts going up, it looks like a good entry today.
a couple of life science fund managers in the psychedelic space. They like this one a lot.
It's like, what, 360 mil market cap? They have $260 million of cash. This is what I'm talking
about. And they have, you know, phase three data. Obviously that's a binary outcome, right? But
their prior data in phase two has been pretty solid. So there's no reason to think that they'll
fail. But again, binary situation, right?
All these clinical bios, you can't size them too big.
So I, you know, I don't see them needing to raise cash anytime soon.
Um, but of course, you know, it's still going to be however long until they get, you know,
FDA approvals that could be like another year out their cash bird.
Isn't that bad? But at some point if they get FDA approval, they FDA approvals, that could be like another year out, their cash burn isn't that
bad. But at some point, if they get FDA approval, they'll need to go into commercialization that
requires a lot of cash. But here's the thing, right? I mean, this stock is bombed out,
trading just above cash on the balance sheet, they show some good data, the stock probably is
going to be meaningfully higher. And then they can do any raises because and people there will
be demand for that stock because if they have positive data and they're headed for commercialization, I think
there will be demand for any sort of offering.
So that's kind of how you have to think about these, uh, these clinical bios.
And I typically size them at about 2% positions.
And that way I can feel comfortable in them.
Hey, worst case scenario, it's minus 50%.
It's a 1% hit to the portfolio.
But in the, in the upside scenario, I mean, this could be a 5X, right? When I see some sort of three to five to one ratio on the risk reward, that makes a lot of sense to me. So I do take
a lot more positions. And I think people will kind of criticize the way I manage my portfolio
because they'll say, you're way too diversified. You have way too many names. Agreed. I agree with that, except I don't own large caps.
I only own small caps. So I can't size these things at 20%, right? Like I need to have more
positions. And if I feel that the aggregate upside of all these names is going to be similar to one another, then I can kind of replicate huge
upside with taking out as much non-market risk as I can. AKA if a single position blows up,
it does not blow up my portfolio. So that's kind of how I've been thinking about it. And
I mean, it, you know, and I'm really heavily, um, uh, positioned in the bios and I've been
talking about it for a while. And I know the trade has been very frustrating. You ain't got to tell me, but you know what? I'm sitting at about 32%
year-to-date performance while this sector is entirely bombed out. I mean, I think that the
upside in the back half of this year can be tremendous, especially if we start to see some
relief in yields. So I'm just kind of looking ahead and placing my bets in where there's
fundamental value and a margin of safety from the valuation standpoint. so I'm just kind of looking ahead and you know placing my bets and where there's fundamental
value and a margin of safety from the valuation standpoint I am extremely long in this market as
I've said several times now we'll have to see how that kind of plays out but it's hard for me not to
swing when I start seeing so much value in the market okay you know what I just I just want I
just you just actually made me think of something that I did today, and I thought maybe I would just share it before I have to, because I can't stay on the end usually.
I bought Google Options today. I know that it kind of got very choppy, and they stopped like it's, you know, expectations are really, really low.
And some analysts that I speak to, there's nothing, everyone speaks to them.
They think they're going to really try and paint a really good AI picture tomorrow.
So I did buy the 167 halves for this week and 170s for next week.
And then I'm just going to watch it a little bit closer.
You said value, and they always keep saying that Google is one of the most,
you know, whatever, undervalued mega cap techs
because, again, the stuff's slowing a little bit.
But I just wanted to – some people are always like,
Redler, you know, you tell us late, and you told us, you know,
Dash late, Uber late.
This is something that I'm in.
It's kind of like a binary event.
I feel like it's a decent risk-reward.
Yeah, I could totally see that.
And again, I think, you know, Stock Talk always discusses this, that like, you know, if this
market continues to be healthy to the upside, then you'll see prior leaders lead to the
upside.
And, you know, obviously a lot of the FUD around Google, I mean, they're not going anywhere
quite yet, but, you know, there are some legitimate concerns to determine like what should the true evaluation be long-term, especially if they're, you know, their biggest, um, revenue driver searches under attack.
Um, uh, for me personally, again, I, I lean small caps.
I think that here's what I'd love to see in this market.
I would love to see the market consolidate slash grind higher.
I would like to see the market biggest market cap names. I would like to see the biggest market cap names grind higher.
But that would be, you know what?
Let me give you an example of what this would be like.
We talk about Bitcoin and how strong it's been.
But what I really want to see is Bitcoin dominance come down.
So I'd like to see Bitcoin grind up, but Bitcoin dominance comes down,
which means that the altcoins came out to play, which means that beta is winning,
which means that the market is broadening and we're starting to see more value. And so that's what I'd like to see in the stock
market as well. I would like to see the market caps do well, but I'd like to like the big market
cap names do well, but I'd actually love to see that rally broaden out to the higher beta names.
And yeah, I think some of them are coming off of like notable bottoms here.
Well, they have to, you know, rates have to finally go lower like i i i got the biggest i've been in the iwm in a while on friday it looked like it was taken back to 200
ema i had 210 calls you know i was on my way to pennsylvania i bought the iwm the day before on
thursday with the red dog reversal in the gap and then you know all of a sudden the downgrade and
i was like they're gonna hit the iwms first IWMs, to your point, acted better than they could have today.
Look where the IWM is.
They held around here.
I'm sure a lot of people got more short
and some people got stopped out or got smaller.
So, yeah, maybe your wish will come true a little bit,
but rates have to come down.
Yeah, no, Scott, real quick before we go to Sam.
Look, I like the IWM from a trading perspective, but I got to tell you, man, after trading this thing so much, it's just a piece of garbage.
It's true.
You're going to buy when you're in a dollar when it looks good, and that's not what momentum traders like to do.
Yeah, and that's the problem, right?
You do need rates to work because most of that index is a bunch of zombie companies
that need interest rates down. So their interest expenses can come down. So their cash flows can
be higher. I think you're, if you're looking at small caps and again, the IWM is a horrible index
because of the winner, the winners end up graduating and leaving the index. Right. And so
it's just, it's just a pile of losers. Yeah. So I think, and you got the KRE, you got regional
banks, they're really going to be under pressure while rates stay high. So it's like, it becomes just a high beta TLT in
my view. So at that point, lever up TLT if you have a, if you have a view on rates. Otherwise,
I think if you want to play the small caps and such, I mean, there are some great small caps.
Look at EVLV was plus 30% on like 10 X volume on a Friday when they posted preliminary
numbers.
This thing is cheap.
Their revenue growth is accelerating.
It's like a mini axon.
They have a weapon detection technology.
They're going to be at like all the stadiums in the world today up another
like 8% or something.
The base it had to heading into that on Friday.
Yeah.
Yeah,
man.
It's one of my largest positions for sure.
And, uh, you know, i'm glad it's been acting
so well but like that's what i'm talking about i'm talking about yeah iwm is a lazy man's trade
who doesn't trade the small caps yeah i trade the big guys i trade tesla all the time amazon all the
time i'm usually all over you know meta and so it's so for me when i feel like the small caps
are gonna go i just do the lazy man trade and i do the IWM. You kind of do the opposite. So together we can find a lot of good names.
Yeah, man. Reach out anytime. Love to chat ideas.
I wish I would have seen this a week or two ago. What a great chart and what a nice move.
Sam, go ahead. Jump in and then I want to make sure we get to the rest of the panel.
I mean, I was just going to add on to that. I mean, high beta has been outperforming low volatility pretty much since the lows by a wide margin. The SPHB over SPLV
ratio is just off the charts. Like it's just up into the right, like not even up into the right,
just up. We've even seen names like Hams and Hood and a lot of high beta names just
constantly outperforming the market just
against all odds. I mean, I think that move is happening right now. And then you look at the
mega caps, you know, ex-Microsoft and other names like, you know, Amazon just been moving sideways
for the last couple of weeks, including a bunch of other names while these smaller cap names,
I wouldn't even say smaller cap names, but maybe mid-cat names have just been moving up and
getting a lot of love. And the thing is, I mean, indices can definitely move up and gradually move up or melt up.
Like we've been saying, all of us have been saying pretty much.
But the real move is really in these other names.
I mean, if I look at my portfolio, I have a good size in Robinhood and Hens.
And those two alone have been moving my portfolio for the last couple of weeks just
alone and i do have a big position amazon i mean having ricardo libre certainly helps as well
but yeah these names are definitely in favor right now and i think they're going to continue
being in favor especially when you have like a lot of short sellers like they try to attack
these high beta names whenever they think there's gonna be a pullback and they all get smoked
i mean uh the reason why i would go for iwn like for a day trade is because it's very liquid Like they try to attack these high beta names whenever they think there's going to be a pullback and they all got smoked.
I mean, the reason why I would go for IWM like for a day trade is because it's very liquid.
I actually was in the same calls that you're mentioning last Friday,
Scott, and those came in pretty nicely,
especially when a pullback would be below the 208,
came all the way to 210.
And then I took my props for a close.
Luckily I took my props for a close, but, but at the same time,
I mean, IWM is just so liquid.
And it's so easy just to grab something on there.
But the smaller names, it's very difficult.
I mean, you definitely got to go for the high beta names with closer strikes in order to grab something.
Especially when it comes to like Hood and Hems and stuff.
Like, you know, the stuff that are further out of the money.
And plus, like, those charges move on their own.
Like, even like Hems, it's very difficult to expect what's going to happen with that one.
You have a pretty green day over here, a flat day in the market, but then Hems is down like four or 5%, but then it was down like four or five, 8% last Friday, and then ended up
closing like four or 5% up in the day. So those things are definitely hard, but at the same time,
I would have a lot of difficulty to hold a short position, even add to a short position on some of these high beta names for more than even like a swing of a couple of days.
If this market is continuing to be strong, which we're seeing, we're even seeing the rates come down again, which is going to give a lot of headway, like Logica was saying, for the smaller caps, especially the companies with higher debt.
This poses a very strong, slow melt-up, grind uptrend and a huge pain rate for a lot
of short sellers.
I mean, there is a lot of opportunity in the market, but the leaders just continue to lead.
I like it, Sam.
It's true.
Yeah, Sam, leaders leading.
And that was kind of one of the things that we talked about on this space last week was seeing these, you know, the semis, the mega caps, like the leaders of the market that let us up, let us back down to lead us back up seems to be a healthy thing.
I do want to make sure we get around to everyone. Ariel, I tried to call on you a little bit earlier. I think you got robbed. So I'm going to go over to you next and see what thoughts you have around the market or bonds or anything. Yeah, I appreciate that. Thanks for having me. And, you know, I was listening to Scott early on and, you know, I was agreeing a bunch with
his commentary.
And, you know, really when you think about, you know, the market and kind of where we
are right now and the stocks that are continuously holding up, holding up best, they're really
the stocks that were actually showing relative strength near the lows, right?
Stocks that had a hard time breaking, you know, their March lows when the market broke lower in April,
you know, and really had a difficult time breaking lower themselves in April. You know,
these are the stocks that, you know, kind of, as Scott Coyne, you get that red dog reversal
where they just kind of hold that March low, reverse off those lows. And you're talking,
you know, names like Netflix, effectively all you're talking, you know, names like Netflix, effectively all time highs, you know, names like Spotify holding up really well, you know,
hood off of 35 bucks, Palantir off the lows, Uber, and those are still the names today. And
typically, you know, when you're marketing in a downtrend, you know, I always say to myself,
what are the stocks and groups holding up best? Because those are your, those are your leaders.
And then on the inverse side of that,
when the market is as strong as it is, what are the stocks that are acting worst? And when I'm
thinking about a day like today, I think I heard Logical say, ASTS, that's breaking the 200 simple
moving average. Yes, it's still just in a really big sideways consolidation, but you really don't
want to see names acting poorly
when the market's even being bought back up because then, you know, just a little thought
experiment says, you know, what happens if the market begins to, you know, finally digest
a little bit more, backfill a little bit more, you know, and some of these names that have
really been leadership quality, whether it's semiconductors finally coming back to life
or, you know, some of these more high beta names, your Ubers and your Palantirs and your hoods that just continue to act. Well,
what happens if they start to pull back in a little bit, right? Is money going to flow into
a place like ASTS or, you know, when it's showing relative weakness, does that just continue to sell
off and, you know, a little bit heavier of a market? I don't know, but my thinking is always,
you know, try to think about the market
in industry groups, in terms of groups, you know, bunch things up in groups. And, you know,
one of the big positives that we've been seeing is this kind of semiconductors, and they're a
group that can really carry the market, have begun to act a whole lot better. Cybersecurity stocks
as a whole, you know, whether you're looking at Rubrik or FTNT
or PanW or CrowdStrike looks like a technical cup and handle. Things look great. Zscaler has
been an absolute monster over the 217 base. And that's just always kind of my thinking.
Think to yourself when you're scanning the market, what groups look best, what groups look worst.
And, you know, I personally don't have too many complaints.
You know, you've even got names like GEV looking like it's going to make a new all
time closing high, CIG, a little bit of a laggard, but a bit of a, you know, a little
bit of a flag being built here on the daily.
So, you know, where do we go from here?
You know, I kind of always preach using a bit of progressive exposure, So, you know, where do we go from here? You know, I kind of always preach using a
bit of progressive exposure, but, you know, guys should at this point over the last three, four
weeks be positioned in some of these, I mean, at least, you know, for myself, I'm a swing trader,
you know, be positioned in some names like Uber, Palantir, Hood, you know, even Nvidia, Tesla back
over the 200 day. There's been plenty of merchandise out there that you can go buy in the cyberspace, in the semispace, and in some of these higher beta names, these growthier kind of names.
And no complaints, honestly, for me and for the market.
And I know some of my friends, they were getting all excited.
Solar's coming back to life. They're like, you know, Ariel, what do you think?
Do we got another, you know, group to trade?
And and the reality is, is, you know, before stocks really go on a on a really big run, they got to set up above the 200 day moving average.
Like big runs hardly occur for stocks below the 200 moving average.
So let them set up above the 200.
And then you obviously saw what happened with the
first solar on Friday closes back below the 200. And then on a day like today,
effectively heavy for the entire day. So it's nice to finally see some groups coming back to life.
And it's nice to see, I would personally say the strongest stocks in the market have kind of tipped
their hand, right?
It is your hoods. It is your Palantir's. It's your Ubers. It's your Netflix. It's Spotify. It's SE.
You know, you know, I mean, the list goes on and on.
I mean, you could literally see they've they've effectively been straight up off the lows and they haven't consolidated any.
So they're they're really not letting people in, which is what the strongest stocks in the world do.
I personally think it would be completely healthy for some of these leaders to go sideways for three weeks.
But, you know, the market doesn't always give you what you want.
And again, you know, even speaking to what Scott said earlier, I don't know that I want to be in the quote unquote catch up names because when the market does give you that snap back
and at some point it will, you know, does it just get bought back up like it did today?
It's very likely.
But if you are caught with too much size on these quote unquote catch up names and you
get caught on the wrong side on the wrong day, you're not going to have a fun time.
Instead, for me, I would just kind of rather wait for some of the leadership to tighten back up. Maybe the market digest a little bit longer,
right? It doesn't have to pull back in price. It can just go sideways with time.
And time can be a good consolidator as well. So we'll just take it one day at a time. I think,
like I said, the leaders have kind of already shown their face and potentially we've got, you know, the semi group, the cyber security group, you know,
the energy production group. You've got some of even these NatGas names. Like I noticed you've
got these, I think they're like oil and gas. I forget exactly what they're, but your EQTs,
your LBs, you know, you've got some names out there, your CRK, you know, they're, they're strong
on their own and the group's not that great. So, you know, there's definitely money moving around.
It's just, you kind of have to figure out the theme, understand your setup, you know, make sure
that you're buying them on a day in which the group is acting well, or the market's going higher.
It kind of gives you the best chance to be able to hold these things with the cushion overnight
and then just, you know, trail your leading stocks. And, you know, even really when you think about stocks
from earnings, we've had some pretty massive moves on stocks from earnings, whether it's from some,
you know, name like Oddity or Sezzle or Dave or, you know, even like this PRCH. It's like you've
got names everywhere you look that are just acting
well, even after earning. So there's a lot to do. There's a lot to, you know, kind of find and
locate in this market. And again, just take it one day at a time. You know, it's important that
everybody kind of understand their daily setups, you know, proper position sizing and, you know,
get yourself using progressive exposure a little bit more and more exposed into the market as the market's acting well. And you're on to the leading groups. And I would just caution
against too much of playing too much of the catch-up names. They're in catch-up mode for a
reason. They're not nearly as good as the leaders. And again, it makes it difficult because the
market hardly lets you in the leaders. It's like you get a gap down, you start thinking to yourself,
okay, well, let's let the market digest for a day. And, right? It's like you get a gap down, you start thinking to yourself, oh, okay, well, you know,
let's let the market digest for a day.
And then it just turns into an all day grind
and you know, where the hell do you buy the thing?
So again, they're not making it easy,
but you know, that's kind of the market's job.
And you know, for me, it's just, you know,
I already own plenty longs, you know,
just kind of wait and see what the market gives us in the next few weeks.
Yeah, some really good thoughts there.
I appreciate you joining us this afternoon.
Wolfie, let's slide over your direction next.
Yeah, a lot's been said.
I think this market's giving a little bit for pretty much however you want to slice it.
If you're a negative person, you'll point to the Moody's thing and be like, hey, that's the start of something.
Eventually, you'll look at rates, you'll look at, you know, some of these moves.
Like, take a look at Tesla, for example.
Pretty much a 50% retrace off the lows from high to low.
And so, like's it's a little
bit of that if you've been off sides positioning wise you got to buy the dip you buy the dip um
and then you get these like these uh catch-up trades underneath the surface um and these like
momentum names that kind of kind of take off i i've basically shared how i've been trading at the
last you know month or so i'm pretty much three weeks now or so i'm pretty much the same just look
for idiosyncratic setups um i don't want to be too much involved into you know the mega cap names
i like the names uh that are you know more momentum-cap type stuff currently because of what happened today, right?
Like I can get a headline and then I've got too many positions on the table
or I don't know why I'm in something and I can get blown out.
But I'm picking and choosing between, you know, some of the, some of the different sectors.
So I mentioned a couple of names.
I mentioned a deer, like a all time high here today.
Mentioned service Titan,
pressing into a whole time high again today.
Mentioned Sezzle before, just like names like that.
A little bit, you know, on one side value,
other side momentum, I think.
I pretty much like anything that I bought in early, mid-April,
unless it's something that I really wanted to have a core position around,
I'm pretty much cutting the exposure that I'm afraid of.
I did, you know, I was the beneficiary of being able to buy leaps two years out on things like Rivian, for example, where I already had a share position, but was able to just like buy it closer to that $10 range. And now I'm able to basically like offload the share position if I want or offload the call position if I want
and just lock in the profits. But just kind of gives you a little bit of optionality. I know you
guys, we all talked about UNH when it was like trading sub 280, whatever the day that was,
like two days ago. I told you I sold puts, put spreads, and I bought UNH on that day.
Pretty much closed out almost all of the options side of the trade.
Got a little bit of equity in the long term left.
It basically pays for itself now.
So that's good.
Yeah, outside of that, I mentioned the last time we talked that i'm looking for
setups that are trading against longer term bases at or near uh you know all time or relative lows
um you know that was part of my you know being being lucky with a starter position nothing
crazy on footlocker so it's that basket um i'm still picking around
trying to find stuff like that um you know kohl's kind of you know sparked my attention recently
trading it's a really really crappy uh stock currently bad setup you know from a fundamental
standpoint really high dividend which probably means it gets cut uh got earnings coming up here
in the next couple of weeks um but the setup just from a technical perspective looks decent if they get
through their earnings and doesn't sell off aggressively doesn't make new lows here it's
probably one that could have some mean reversion setup which is kind of like one of the one of the
sides that I'm looking for here outside of of that, the one thing that I will say
is kind of interesting is unlike the last few weeks where you get these names that make new
highs and just kind of push through, they're really kind of killing some of this premium,
and then they kind of reverse off those new highs, and then maybe they make new highs,
maybe they just kind of flag there for a little bit that's like a new thing that i've seen in some of these momentum
names uh take spotify for example ibm for example um and then deer like i mentioned earlier for
example so just trying to stay still idiosyncratic nimble um and then you, if I don't want to be overexposed, for me, I don't want to be
overexposed to the upside, just from a headline perspective, unless I'm hedged, and I don't want
to put on real hedges really here, because it's kind of like a no man's land. The Fed watch tool
has us at like 90% chance nothing happens next Fed meeting.
So I'm paying attention to that, see if anything changes it along the way.
Then outside of that, like I'm, you know, we talked about last Thursday, gold went into its
50 day. I said VIX was cheap. So I'd bought some, you know, gold bounce right off the 50-day, got a random headline, right?
So it's not to say that this is sky's falling behavior.
But it's like, to me, we're going to have these wild swings from positive to negative this year, in my opinion.
Volatility should stay a little bit elevated, even on the low side.
For the last several years, we traded like 10 to 12.
I think those days are probably gone.
So anytime you get like mid-teens, upper teens,
I kind of want to own some just to have it on the table
for headlines like today, it keeps me involved.
And then from a rates perspective,
I posted several charts and several things pre-market this morning.
Feel free to go through my profile and see it on the rate side.
The last time we'd gotten a downgrade was August 1st, 2023.
And the market really sold off aggressively between August 2023 and October 2023.
I don't think it's the same setup.
I don't think it's the same environment, but it was like worth noting,
just kind of get an idea of how things reacted.
And then you just have like a benchmark to play up against.
From a rates perspective, you can just,
I mean, I posted, again, just go through my profile,
post the charts. You can pull up like longer term charts for, you know, 30 year, for example,
10 year, for example, for the last 40 years, we've been upper left, lower right. And then the last
couple, it looks like it's, it's just basing possibly for another move higher. I do think that rates will go higher.
I can't give you like an explicit time frame, but I do think they will go higher.
And I think in the back half of this year, that plus Fed being kind of boxed in potentially
is the potential for something more that kind of just keeps markets in a plus-minus territory
where it can go up, but then it gets sold off.
And I think that's really the battle to look for.
The second headline, and these are just things to know.
It's not like you take it now and you go, oh, this is really bearish.
Go put on a bearish trade.
There was a headline earlier this morning where it was China-centric, and it said
that China says chip controls are undermining consensus made on trade. So it's just something
you want to flag and just kind of like keep it in the rear view, because we do have a 90-day
basically like shot clock on this tariff stuff stuff and i just want to pay attention to it
um you know as we get closer to call it 60 days because i think that's when things start to get
really um tight and if more stuff like that starts to happen like we could see you know more panikins
for lack of a better term uh re- reemerge. But, you know,
outside of that, like just trying to find setups, idiosyncratic setups,
again, mid caps, uh, value on one side, defensive on the other,
or value on one side with defensive and the momentum on the other. Um,
and then I've mentioned, last thing I'll leave is I mentioned some of these
large, I'm not the small cap bio guy,
but some of these larger cap, uhch names or pharma names or whatever, they're setting up against bigger levels.
So I mentioned Amgen.
I think it was Thursday or Wednesday.
I don't know.
It's all been like a blur.
But I mentioned Amgen coming up off of weekly support off the trend line.
I mentioned Gilead.
And I mentioned Regeneron and biogen those are like some of the names that i watch uh from the bigger you know
the bigger bio side and you know they've been acting a little bit nicely and i just want to
see if there's any follow-through and then you know last last thing would be like some of these
names that have sell-offs on the back of the earnings print, but then just get bought up into support levels.
So take a look at DOCS, for example, got bought right back above that 200-day.
It's held at two days in a row now.
Any sort of follow-through would be nice.
And then the inverse of that as well, right?
So if you get like a name that gaps up and then sells or you get this exogenous blow off in either direction.
It's not earnings, but the UNH is a perfect example.
Sell off right into a 250 support level.
Gives you a real clean level of trade against.
Take calls if you don't want to own the thing outright.
And, you know, go from there.
I'll stop there.
Since we're coming up against the bell, if you have any questions, have to answer.
Yeah, by the way,
the markets are trying to ramp here to close green. At least, yeah,
both SPY and QQQ
on pace to close green right now.
Less than a minute to the market close. There aren't that many
earnings after the close today, so
nothing really in that department.
Home Depot tomorrow morning.
Maybe it's tomorrow morning.
I wanted to touch on the Moody's comment you made, Wolf.
I actually posted about this
on the Wolf newsletter
that came out yesterday,
Sunday edition.
And we've seen the dramatic move
when the Standard & Poor
released their downgrade.
Just first of the three, let three credit agencies report reported downgrade on the U.S. debt in 2011.
And the result was a correction that occurred.
But that was quite different because of the wording for a lot of the companies, a lot of institutions that buy U.S. debt. The wording said that the debt or the securities had to be AAA rating, right?
And they downgraded it from AAA to AA+.
And the same thing happened, actually, in 2023, where Fitch downgraded U.S. debt from the premier rating of AAA down one level and the market saw a 10% correction. I would actually argue in July of 2023 that the reason why that happened was not because of the downgrade,
but the downgrade certainly was the catalyst to bring it down. However, I would say the reaction
were the bonds that are dramatically getting sold off, but also the market had quite a bounce from
the October 2022 lows running quite a good amount.
So that just needed to cool off.
And then, of course, Friday, we saw the Moody's downgrade,
which is the last credit agency to report a downgrade.
And I just generally feel like whatever they brought up
was nothing new information.
It wasn't like they brought up anything new
that we didn't already know.
And then you had the administration come on the podium
and basically down talk the
downgrade. Of course, they're going to down talk. It's like, come on, you're downgrading my debt.
But at the same time, you had that massive reaction to the bonds. And like Scott was saying
earlier and logical, if the rates stayed up there, then we probably wouldn't have gotten this
balance. But look how much the rates dropped, right? I would actually say that given the bad news, this might mark an inflection point with
yields and bonds, mostly because you had probably one of the worst news you could probably see in
terms of US debt. But where bonds are green on a day trading day after that?
Moody's just downgraded Fannie Mae to AA1 as well.
Oh my God, get out of here. But anyways, the point I'm trying to make is that when you have
these inflection points where you have probably the worst news possible, and then the underlying
security for that, which is in this case, probably tradable to the retail trader is TLT.
And that ends up green on a day
like that after having a massive reversal. Well, that really, really reminds me of October 2022,
when you had one of the worst inflation, high inflation reports you can get in quite a long
time. The market opened way lower and then ended up green on the day. And that was a historic moment because that was
the end of the bear market in 2022. So I'm not saying that that's the end of the bond bear market
that we're seeing right now, especially with the long-term yields. But what if it is? Wouldn't that
really be an interesting moment where the bond market finally bottoms and rates continue to
evolve? That'd be interesting to see. I was actually hoping we'd close red today on the indices. So that way we won't constantly get like
these, Oh, how many days in a row sort of thing, you know, but I don't know. I guess that
probability is just going to keep increasing. Uh, sixth green S and P 500 day in a row. Thanks
for that reminder. Get the tweet out. I don't know. I'm starting to see like the 20, the last
21 days. It's like, Oh man, we also came out of like having the most amount of red days in a row for a long time in April.
It's like, come on, man. It's still like, we're coming off really bad sentiment.
Yeah. So I don't disagree on the right side, but it is, in my opinion, important to mark these levels and, you know,
just to have a context of what historically would and could happen. I'd say 4.6 on the 10
kind of sets it up for, you know, the higher levels. And then you've got 4.8. And then on the
30-year, I think it was 5.2, if I remember correctly.
I'm going off memory here, so forgive me.
But, yeah, came in where on a TLT basis you have to have them come in and support.
And they did.
So you can just basically one-to-one it.
Bonds up, stocks down.
Or bond yields up, stocks down.
Bond yields down, stocks downs, uh, or, you know, bond yields up, stocks down, um,
bond yields down, stocks up.
So you can make it that simple if you'd like until that, until that, that relationship changes, it's really that simple. But I, I do,
I do believe like I, I believe that if you were fortunate buying some of these
names, like I've, you know, I think several people on, on this panel,
for example, but a lot of these names, like, you know, Hood in the 30s, Hems in the 20s, NBIS in the 20s,
things like that. Like, you know, to me, it's like, you take some chips off the table as you
get up into these upper resistance zones. And then outside of that, like, you know, just kind of,
But outside of that, like, you know, just kind of, you know, setting up what are the next things to kind of think about.
And that's just kind of how I'm playing it.
You know, I think Scott also said it.
You have an opinion, but then the tape you have in front of you is the tape you trade.
So the one last thing on the S&P front, like, uh, we got a gap
down basically right to a support level right off the open.
And so, you know, if you wanted to take a shot, you first, first five to 15 minutes,
man, what kind of trader you are, um, really gave you a really clean setup to take a shot.
And if you're like an orb trader, that was really clean as well.
So, you know, just kind of set
it up and go with it. But I
don't disagree.
Mr. Stock Talk.
What's going on,
ladies and gentlemen? Let's go
stars. Let's go stars,
baby. It's funny.
That was a funny game.
Actually, I'll talk about that later.
Yeah, go Stars.
Interesting day today.
Obviously, big recovery for the markets off the lows.
The Moody's downgrade seemed to be in the front of everybody's mind
going into the weekend.
Obviously, you had some analyst commentary on that.
This morning, you also had Federal Reserve President Bostich came out and basically said that he thinks it's going to be a serious economic impactor.
He thinks it's going to have implications for cost of capital.
I don't know if I'm as hyperbolic about it as he is. Are there some long-term consequences to
cost of capital? Maybe. But I mean, to me, if you read the Moody's downgrade over the weekend,
it seems more contextual than anything. And I mean, perhaps the most important point of all, it's not raising any imminent concerns, right? It's not like that downgrade wasn't a fire alarm that we're headed into a debt crisis next month.
that downgrade was look the balance of everything that's happened along with the tariff volatility
along with the potential long-term consequences to international trade as a result of the tariff
policy uh probably just put them in a position where they wanted to put that note out now
um you know is it a nothing burger probably not is. Is it a big deal? Probably not. So that's kind of where I stand on the Moody's downgrade thing. And obviously the market today, you know, it wasn't enough of a catalyst to bring it down. And frankly speaking, like we could have seen a nice pullback today and it would have been totally orderly.
orderly. Like this isn't a market that needed to keep its head up head above water today. Right.
I mean, the, the inclining 90 MA, which tore through the 200 day moving average last week
is sitting at five 82. Like you could have gotten a percent move down today and it would have been
fine. Like bulls wouldn't, would not have cared at all. In fact, it probably would have been
dip buyers at the lows.
Now instead, you've strung together, what is this, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5?
This is going to be the sixth green session now.
So yeah, at some point, you're going to get a cool-off candle here.
That shouldn't surprise anyone.
You know, six green sessions in a row, the major index is above the 200-day.
You'd like to come back here and confirm this breakout,
whether you confirm it into the 9 EMA or confirm it into the 200. You'd like to see that happen. So yeah, there will be a
pullback at some point, either into the 580s or the 570s. And if the selling stops in those areas,
that'll be more bullish than anything. So I said this last week, I'll say it again.
So I said this last week, I'll say it again.
I try not to complicate my viewpoint with like paragraphs long of dissertations.
My technical viewpoint is simple.
If we are trading above the 200-day moving average, I think markets are constructive.
If we are not, then I think you have a reason to be cautious.
I think you have a reason to be cautious.
For now, we're still way above the 200-day.
For now, we're still way above the 200-day.
We're $35, $40 above the 50-day.
The 9 and 21 EMA are pointing vertically to the upside.
That is a, any way you slice it, a technically bullish setup.
Now, could other catalysts be introduced here that unwind us or pull us back into lows?
Sure, that's always a possibility.
I don't have a crystal ball as to what's going to happen in the trade environment or in the U.S. economy.
You know, any catalyst can come up at any time on any data print, whether that's, you know, initial jobless claims, which we have, you know, this Thursday.
which we have this Thursday, whether that's a really, really bad PMI print, whether that's
something in home sales or any of these categories can deliver a print that causes concern and
causes the markets to unwind a little bit. But for now, things look fine. I'll change my opinion
as the data changes accordingly, like I always do.
And that's what I think most people should do in this kind of environment.
You don't want to be closed-minded.
You don't want to have some kind of perspective about the market that you hang on to for dear life,
regardless of what the technicals or fundamentals are doing.
And this is the same.
This goes both ways, right?
This is also what I was saying to permabulls in late february
right who were saying like i'm gonna buy the first two percent dip i was like look markets
are breaking down we're back below the 200 day for the first time in a long time and you know
in that scenario it made sense to be cautious and it made sense to wait and the markets had a big
big unwind since late february and obviously we recovered pretty aggressively off the lows as well. But look, now on the flip side,
a lot of negative catalysts have been taken off the table. I think the tariff situation
has softened materially. Obviously we'll find out in 90 days where the stopping point is for that.
But the reasons, the macroeconomic reasons to be bearish
two and a half months ago are, I don't want to say no longer valid, but they're not
what they were two and a half months ago. Now, that means that risk has to be repriced at some
level along the spectrum. And this rebound in the markets over the last few weeks has probably been that to an extent where risk has been repriced.
You know, the impact of tariffs at the new level has sort of been factored in.
And you've seen stocks move accordingly.
But I really like the action today.
Obviously, you know, that's good to see when you get an intraday dip like that or a pre-market dip that gets bought up pretty much immediately a lot of names went red to green in the wake of that
um i like my portfolio balance right now i actually had a lot of names this morning that
weren't participating in the market sell right off the open you know a couple of my border names
core civic which actually is the only one i have right now. I don't have Gio anymore, but Core Civic was up 3.75%. That's one of the names that I like a lot. They do border services.
They're managing detention facilities. Really, really good guidance on their last earnings call.
And so I've been sticking with that one. It's doing well today.
Embraer, obviously that name is super, super resilient,
pushing back into that $50 area today, up 2.5%.
I tweeted out about 10 or 11 sell-side reports this morning.
A lot of them worked well.
Logical just brought up one earlier that worked well with RX site, ticker RXST.
well with rx site ticker rxst wells fargo called the bottom on that name it's been absolutely
Wells Fargo called the bottom on that name.
brutalized fell from 55 to 55 last november to 14 ish now um so wells fargo basically stood out and
said look we're calling bottom on this thing that thing ripped 13 today you had a6 from piper sandler
uh they're an ammonium sulfate business piper sandler had a nice note out this morning on them
saying that they see ammonium sulfate and the nylon intermediate category as highly immune to
tariffs uh so they raised their price target on that one to 32 that stock shot up today about
four and a half percent um on asix solventum from from uh i believe that's from piper yeah solventum from piper this
morning solv that was up two and a half percent on a really nice note from them also had good
technical structure going into the tape legal zoom ticker lz that had a nice note from jp
morgan that was higher by about two percent today as well. Spore Radar continues to get tons of bullish notes.
This name has been a really awesome relative strength candidate, actually.
We were talking about sports betting industry a couple of weeks ago,
and Evan and Amp were sort of probing me on my opinions,
and I mentioned that I prefer the winner agnostic names because of how much of a burden customer acquisition has been in this space and marketing expense.
And I think really the big winners have been your winner agnostic plays.
And by winner agnostic, what I mean is your data managers, right?
agnostic, what I mean is your data managers, right? People that are giving these data feeds
to these large sports books, whether it's from the NFL or NHL, signing long-term agreements with
those leagues. Those names have been monsters. You pull up the SRAD chart, sports radar,
which I'm talking about. Look how strong it's know, look how that name has floated above the 9 and 21 EMAs in this choppy and volatile market.
This thing is just constructed to the upside all year, right?
Thing was trading in the 17s at the start of the year, is now trading 24.
And if you follow the journey in price all the way up, it's been extremely resilient to the broader market.
They provide data to the major
leagues as well. And, you know, you look at Genius Sports, which is the other winner agnostic play on
sports betting. Look at that name this year. Also very, very strong, right? You know, kicked off the
year around the 830 range is now trading in the tens and has been constructive for most of the
year as well. So Genius Sports, Sports Radar continue to do very well,
getting more and more analyst commentary coming out on those names
in the past couple of months.
And they've certainly been market leaders
or at least great relative strength candidates over the last several months.
And I think those names probably deserve a continued watch
as the sell side
commentary gets more and more bullish you also had those psychedelic names sort of rip into the
clothes I tried to grab some M&MD that's the one I like to trade when those names are hot that thing
actually picked up pace into the clothes and jumped about six percent so that was some nice
timing on that but those like the headlines came out about those psychedelic names
um into the close so that was nice to see those jump a little bit as well uh in the sports betting
vein you also got a craig hallam initiation on super group holdings sghc this morning
which didn't move much today was higher by about a percent and a half. But I did think that note was interesting as well. So there's a lot of interesting opportunities here on a micro basis,
and there continue to be an individual stock basis. Like the catalysts are ripe and they're
working up, down, sideways market. The catalysts have been working very, very well for three or
four months. So that's the niche I've been focused on focused on you know i'm up like 28 and a half percent year to date now
um i feel good about the positions i'm in i'm actually not doing much you know like me and
logical have both done really well this year managing the volatility logical has probably
done it in a more active way than I have.
I've sort of just picked my spots and sat in them, you know, couple of edits here and there, maybe two or three positional changes every few weeks. But it's worked really well, you know,
and I keep a short leash on a lot of these trading positions, you know, especially these
catalyst driven trading positions. If I jump in and I'm risking off the 9 and 21 EMA
and the next market pullback, the stock pulls under,
yeah, could I be getting shaken out?
But in a lot of instances, I've just been cutting those names
because I don't want to have to be patient
in this market environment.
I don't want to have to open up to another 10% downside move
and then be sitting on some high beta names with a close to my chest cost basis.
So my leash has been shorter, certainly.
My activity has been a little slower, not doing as much.
But the performance has been really great.
So I don't have a lot to complain about.
You know, S&P 500 are flat, slightly up on the air.
We're up almost 30%. so i'm happy with it
i'm gonna keep doing what i'm doing you know as far as managing risk goes when the market
breakdowns if if the market breaks down again you know then i'll put some hedges back on i'll
i'll probably put those on with some size but until then if we can orderly pull back
the technical structure
keeps acting how it's acting i mean i'm gonna keep dancing with the music i don't see a reason
not to especially as a trader i have the flexibility to pivot my bias very quickly uh if i need to so
yeah i'm happy with where the markets are today obviously if you're interested in reading any of
those sell side notes i post this morning like i I said, I posted about 11 of them.
You can just go to my feed and read those.
So, yeah, not too much else today.
Dr. I'm kind of with you on that point.
I mean, what do you do right here?
I mean, if you're very, very active, like, yeah, I can see the opportunities and the arguments for it.
But six days up in a row, there hadn't really been a viable dip since, honestly, before we even got the Geneva meeting.
It's just really mostly floating higher.
Yeah, I think in this environment, you sit on your high conviction exposure.
conviction exposure you let it work if the market wants to continue higher and you know if we do get
You let it work if the market wants to continue higher.
a pullback like i said into the inclining 90 ma or into the 200 day which would be totally reasonable
wouldn't make me panic at all but if we do get that pullback then you know maybe some other
names that you missed out on like you said not a lot of names have presented a dip viable opportunity
in the last several weeks you know you put your pin in some of those names. Maybe you pick up a handful of them. But look, obviously, with the markets having recovered a lot, it's easier
to say this. But just because this is a highly volatile environment, it doesn't mean it has to
be an environment where you act like a chicken with your head cut off. You can take a deep breath,
focus on a basket of, and I'm speaking to the traders here more
so, but even to the investors to an extent, you know, you focus on a basket of 10 or 12 names
that you really like, that you want to own, whether you want to own them for the long term
or whether you want to own them because they have some really compelling catalyst or thematic
narrative on the table, whatever the case may be, you find this tight basket. I have this watch list that I look at every day. It's like, how many stocks are on here right now?
915 stocks are on it. And it's not all in one big list, obviously, that would be useless.
They're separated by industry. I've talked about this before, but I separate them very specifically
by industry, not by sector. So? So I have like a nuclear and
uranium watch list. I have a cybersecurity watch list. I have cloud infrastructure watch list. I
have a data infrastructure watch list. I have semiconductor watch list. I have semiconductor
hardware that I have a semiconductor related software watch list. I have a regional banks
watch list, a batteries watch list. Like all of these watch
lists have 15 to 20 stocks on them in very specific industries. And if I'm ever interested
in those industries, I just click on the list and I have 10 names available to me, 10 to 15 names
available to me that I know are relatively high quality, have the ability to perform in a thematic
environment. And, you know, I could narrow it down really
quickly. But more importantly than that, it gives me the ability to observe relative strength
and to find areas that have shown resilience through multiple sessions. And that's what
helps me narrow down the list. You know, at the front of that list, I have a tab that I have labeled consider. And that name is usually 10
to 15 names. And those are 10 to 15 names that I want to buy. Right. And that list changes
constantly. Right. There might be some trades on there that I that I want to be in that I'm not in
something changes about the trade or changes about the company or their port of bad earnings.
something changes about the trade or changes about the company or their port-a-bat earnings,
cool, I take it off the list, right? But I keep an operating list of about 10 or 12 names on there.
If I want to jump into them for a trade, cool. If I find them selling into a really interesting
long-term spot, awesome. Throw some leaps on them, you know, get some longer-term exposure.
But that's kind of the way I've been handling it. And, um, like I said,
it's working really well. I can't ask for much more in a market environment like this. I'm not
expecting to put up the returns I put up last year, 260% last year, not expecting to meet that
this year, but you know, if I can get away with 40 or 50% returns in this environment, I'm happy
with that, you know, uh, especially for the amount of effort I put in on a day to day basis. So I'm, I'm, I'm totally fine with how the markets are functioning here
and how my individual names are working. You know, some of my more defensive kind of names,
you know, my border servicing names, my aerospace and defense names, those tend to be
stronger on days like today. And then I have my higher beta exposures, you know, like Nebius
Group, which we opened up with perfect timing two weeks ago, already up 50% on shares. That's my
high beta exposure, right? You know, if that works for me to the upside, the markets want to
favor the high beta stocks, that gives me some nice exposure.
It's one of my core positions now, MBIS. So that gives me a nice amount of exposure there.
You know, Exometry, XMTR, which is one of the digital pairers of manufacturers and supply chains, really one of the most interesting businesses on the market to me right now,
actually. You know, $1.73 billion market cap, very under discussed, amazing earnings report last quarter. I don't think they have any peers
on the market. And they're so relevant to what's going on right now with this tariff stuff,
that it's an exposure that I don't want to let go of. You know, we opened that up,
go up you know we open that up xmtr when was my opening day for this uh 428 so we open that up
april 28th at 25 37 that's not trading 34 today so up 35 on equity in a couple of weeks right
nebius like i mentioned earlier up 55 on equity in in two. These are monster moves, right? And some of these mid cap names,
where you get a huge cushion off the rip in the first few weeks, it makes psychologically
handling the position magnitudes easier. You know, a lot of times in volatile market environments,
what happens is, is it's not that people aren't picking the right stocks, it's that they're
getting shaken out of them. Right. And so
by getting into these names with good timing, and I know that's not always easy to do. That's the
hardest part about markets is timing. But if you do happen to snipe a couple of these names, like
I said, that you have on a short list with good timing, you get a 30 or 40 percent cushion on
equity in a couple of weeks. That's a really easy position to manage from there.
You know, you could take some profits at that point. You could, you know, roll out some of your equity into some longer term options to take off some of the buying power burden. You just have a
ton of ways to get creative once you have a cushion like that. And it's really easy to leave
exposure on the table so you don't have FOMO about those names, you know? And so it's little things like that and, and, you know,
little, uh, points of conviction that, uh, are making the portfolio work for me, um, in this
environment. So just letting it happen, letting it happen. And, you know, there are a couple of
names that I don't own that I want to own. i mentioned that are on my consider list but i'm not in any rush to get into them because
i have enough long exposure um to party when the market wants to go up you know if the market wants
to keep going up from here like i said i think we are getting a little exhausted in the short term
six straight sessions green you want to see a little bit of red here. You want to at least see us come back into the eight EMA.
But outside of that, outside of the need for a short-term pullback,
I think the action is constructive.
So I'm totally fine with where we're at.
There's two things.
One, Nebbia's reports tomorrow morning,
so that's going to be very interesting to see,
especially as far as the ARR that they guided for as we get closer to that end of the year target of $750 million to $1 billion.
But also, we were talking about this earlier.
What if we just move sideways as far as the major indices goes for quite some time, have the moving averages catch up a little bit?
and have the moving averages catch up a little bit.
Meanwhile, the underlying positions that you've been discussing,
as well as other mid-cap and small-cap companies,
can continue to just grind higher.
I mean, that might happen as well, especially with the earnings.
I'm sorry, especially with the yields providing quite a good backdrop.
I mean, now, looking at the chart,
10 years is basically flat from where it closed on Friday
before the Moody's announcement.
It's quite a recovery from there.
So, I mean, could it do that?
I mean, we see even crypto pretty strong in this.
You know, obviously, crypto is not contributing to any market cap for, sorry, any indices
movement besides some proxies like Coinbase and so on.
But at the same time, like we could have these high risk on beta assets just continue to grind higher while the mega caps just go sideways and just keep the indices flat.
Yeah, I mean, we could definitely have a sideways year from here.
Absolutely.
That's totally within the realm of possibility.
That doesn't bug me too much.
In sideways market environments catalysts
still work really well you know and I've been a catalyst trader for most of my training career and
that's where I like to focus one of the great things about it is that you don't need the index
action to be supportive you know to get a two and a half billion market cap to move on a great
sell side note you don't need the indexes to move up.
The indexes can do nothing.
In fact, SPY could be down a percent, and those names can still move.
A lot of those sell-side reports I discussed this morning, even before the indexes recovered intraday,
those names ripped right off the open, a lot of them.
They started getting bid to the upside right away and so it's part of why i like to focus in the mid-cap area during volatile
markets because i feel like it gives me a little bit more i don't want to say immunity but it gives
me a little bit more shelter from the noise and the indexes you know know, if you're holding, I don't know, I mean, if you're holding any S&P 500
constituent, right, and the S&P 500 goes down or has one of the days like it had this year,
the downside days, it goes down two or three percent, that name's going to get hit almost
certainly unless there's like, again, some catalyst on the table that's holding it up.
But, you know, the S&P 500 can be down two
or three percent. And if you have a mid cap name with a really good story or a really good thematic
news piece intraday, that name has a really good chance of just doing its own thing,
you know, versus the broader market. And so that's part of the reason why I like to focus
on mid caps in hypervolatile environments.
But I mean, you know, whatever floats your boat.
I'm not implying that people should do what I do, but it works well for me in environments like this.
I generally focus in that category anyway, but I have a much more specific attention to those stocks in market environments like this.
Like right now, my
portfolio is probably 90% mid caps. Let me see. Yeah, I would say like nine out of 10 positions
are mid caps at 14 positions right now. I think like 12, 11 or 12 are mid caps, uh, 11, 11 out
of 14 are mid caps. So mid or small. So yeah, normally I would say that number is
probably closer to 60 or 70% of my portfolio. So there's certainly a greater focus right now
in this environment for me on those smaller market caps, because like I said, I think,
you know, it's not that I'm bullish on small caps in general. I never express my views that way, right?
I'm an individual stock trader.
I don't trade the indexes.
So I don't buy IWM.
I think Logical and somebody were talking about IWM earlier.
I agree.
It's a shit index.
I don't like trading it.
You know, Logical made a great point about, you know, the winners graduate the index.
I like that phrasing.
You know, when a company gets big enough and good enough, it's not in the IWM anymore. You know, it goes to the S& the index. I like that phrasing. You know, when a company gets big enough and good enough,
it's not in the IWM anymore.
You know, it goes to the S&P 500 or, you know,
it goes to the mid cap and then the S&P 500 or whatever.
So, yeah, I don't, I'm not bullish on small caps in general.
I'm not implying that there's some sort of, you know,
catalyst, macro catalyst for small caps and you should go buy them.
I think individual certain small caps and mid caps that have really, really good stories,
really, really good Q1 earnings.
I think there's opportunities there.
It doesn't mean I think you should buy the whole basket, though, which I think often
gets misinterpreted.
People are like, oh, I like mid caps and people are like, oh, should I buy IWM?
Like,
it's not the same thing.
Yeah,
that's good.
I mean,
I do see,
go for it.
go ahead.
I was going to say,
we got Kevin Green on the spaces.
Yeah,
welcome back.
It's been a little bit.
I've seen some fishing
videos and stuff what's going on yeah that was a classic uh elbow extension on that on that fish
yeah and i got some long arms too man i was trying to finesse that but yeah man uh look i live in
in colorado right so i'm up i grew up a fisherman, but in Colorado, you got like maybe a month,
month and a half, and then it's really tough fishing kind of across the board here. So
we're hitting our stride right now. So I'm up like every weekend, unless I'm traveling for work. So
sorry, I haven't been on, but hopefully everybody's doing well here.
Everybody's doing well here.
All good stuff's going on.
Better now, though.
I'm curious what you're watching this market.
What's been catching right in this Moody's downgrade?
The market seems to be seen through it.
Yeah, I mean, I got a couple items I can kind of run through and just kind of cut me out.
Look, the Moody's thing, they're the last one to move.
Obviously, we had the downgrade of S&P in 2011.
We had the downgrade of Fitch in 2023.
S&P downgrade in 2011 completely took the market off guard.
We saw a pretty significant drawdown there.
The Fitch one, we saw an 8% drawdown.
Moody's, obviously, we had that 1% move overnight, which was obviously bought up here.
There was a lot of conversation about it over the weekend. I didn't even post about it because
it's like for two reasons. One, if you're a fixed income trader and you focus on sovereign debt
and creating rating agencies, you really follow like S&P is really going to be your North Star
traditionally from asset manager standpoint, not so much Moody's. So once again,
Moody's basically just brought their level down to where everybody else is at.
So is that going to have any type of meaningful impact of the appetite for treasuries or the allocation of treasuries within a portfolio, within an ETF, within a family practice?
No, right?
It's not going to have any type of meaningful adjustment.
Now, you will still see some pressure on the longer end of the curve.
Now, you will still see some pressure on the longer end of the curve.
We got to be kind of mindful of that because, you know, we are trying to fund the government.
And it sounds like obviously they want to focus more on the longer end of the curve to issue debt rather than shorter end.
But if interest rates go higher, that interest expense gets higher.
That puts us in a worse bind.
So right now, it's not a significant situation.
Um, Margo is able to kind of, you know, digest it and for the bears, you're going to need
to have more news than just a ratings adjustment in order to really kind of knock us down,
uh, for now.
So that's kind of my two cents on it.
We'll see what happens from here.
Um, but the yield complex itself is still kind of normalizing.
And I think we have to be mindful of that. Are we getting close to some historic levels for the 30
year? Yes. But if you're kind of looking at the spread of the curve, right? 10s and 30s,
you can look at any spread, right? It's normalizing right now. Unless you're looking
like three months, 10 year, that's still a little bit stuck in its range. But the normalization is
really what you want to see to get it started into an early cycle type of market. And sometimes
that could have some pressures when it comes to equities. But I'm not too, too concerned about it right now.
Once again, I don't think it's going to have a really meaningful impact when it comes to anybody's
benchmark holdings or
any type of rotation out of treasuries because of me. So that's my
two cents. They do great work. I'm not trying to shoot them down or anything, but they're not,
it's not significant for me. So that's kind of that situation here. Okay. So a couple of things,
I know I've been gone for a little bit, so I'm just going to ramble on just real quick. I'm going to try to be concise here. Just cut me off. Oil kind of looks really interesting here,
trying to consolidate, maybe having a little bit of a breakout to the $67 level.
That's what I'm looking at for a potential area for some upside.
If you're looking at the options, futures options, they're actually relatively cheap compared to that.
A lot of things have been priced in, right?
The OPEC readjustment when it comes to production estimates has been priced in.
It doesn't mean that OPEC is going to completely just ramp up production, but it just means that they have, they're kind of just doing a little bit of a rebalance and then trying to keep some guys in check, Iraq and Kyrgyzstan, whatever, right? U.S. nuclear deal, probably for the most part, I would say 60%, 70% priced in right now,
which was one of the reasons why I say that there's probably a little bit of upside geopolitical
risk move that could actually take place for oil just because of that. I don't believe that deal
is going to go through in one way, shape, or form because two parties might want to agree,
but there's going to be a party that
that does not agree with that and I think this could be Israel. So I think there's some risk
that's there. Potentially a reduction in sanctions and potential sanction relief for Russian oil.
I think for the most part that's a little bit priced in right now. What we will see that I
don't believe is really priced in though you're going to probably see an increase in production numbers globally. But I believe
that that's actually going to be the result of some of these sanctions being reduced. And then
just basically dark fleet ask type of oil, right? Let's say black market oil, whatever, actually
just hitting the tape and actually just being accounted for.
I don't think that's actually gonna be something meaningful
but the market might take it that way, right?
If we start seeing those production levels starting to go up
increase in inventories, increase the supply,
yada, yada, yada.
Looking at China actually increasing their imports
to put in their strategic oil reserves.
I would not consider that to be a demand driver right now.
That's just something that's a little bit more maintenance. So the crude trade, I think, is,
given the summer driving season here, I don't think this is going to be a long-term one by any
stretch, but I am looking for a little short-term pop to around that 66, 66 and a half, maybe the
$70 level. And until then, I would say that that would be a fade for crude.
Heating oil probably, or diesel, if you will, probably has the best upside.
I've been saying that for a year and still hasn't happened.
But I am a true believer of supply and demand dynamics and the supply for diesel.
When you're looking at the U.S. inventory levels at this time of year is pretty much matching COVID-19 lows, which I don't think is sustainable
at all. And refining margins actually look really healthy. So refiners should actually
be the beneficiaries of that. So the integrated is probably not so much. Refiners probably should
be doing pretty well. So that's my thoughts on the oil front. Oh, natural gas. We kind of talked
about this before I left. It was like a week ago, two weeks ago. Finally breaking down here. I'm looking for 275 there. So still some more room to go.
That's a tough trade, though, if you bring up the chart, because it's been down, what, six sessions in a row.
Looking for a counter trend bounce. But Natty is finally starting to price in.
The fact that it's way too high when it comes to price, given the fact that supply levels are
actually exceeding what we saw this time last year. And that last year, we were at a lot lower
prices. So that's where I'm at with the natty trade. What else is on my radar here? Oh,
industrials making new all-time highs from a sector standpoint. Who would have thought that
they would be the sector to get all-time highs first coming out of a bear market? But the technical setup brought this up two, three
weeks ago, whatever. Technical setup was actually there for it. Now, I don't know if they're going
to see a follow-through on the breakout because the composition of that index and some of the
movers there might be a little bit stretched, but there are some underperformers. But the industrial
trade, if you are going to take a shot, not a recommendation, if you are going to take a shot, you could utilize the XLI as a proxy.
You can look at the options for the XLI.
Some people are going to be like cringing.
Oh, my God.
But here's the thing.
If you look at those options, go out a month, even go out two months, look at the at the money options, then go to your chart,
bring up an ATR average true range, right?
Look what the actual range that we've seen
over the last couple of weeks.
You can even go back into when we actually saw
very low volatility within the XLI.
Premiums are actually relatively cheap.
So you can look at doing debit spreads.
You can even sell credit spreads if that's your jam.
Probably not gonna get that much juice on the credit side, but you could do so. But the premiums for those ETF
options are actually really cheap compared to Realized Vol. And those are the opportunities
that I talk about literally all the time. Wolfie and I nerd out on that stuff. But I'm always
looking for opportunities in stocks where it's got low IV or low price premiums compared to perceived movement. So looking for price dispersions there.
That has been one that has been racking up the last couple of weeks significantly. So once again,
I don't know if that trend is going to continue, but that actually looks like a decent setup.
Materials look like a decent setup. Materials
look like a decent setup as well on the weekly chart. So kind of looking at that one. Communication
services looks okay, but they're kind of expensive. And then if you wanted some type of Tesla exposure,
because Tesla is seeing some positive flows on the options front, and you don't want to buy Tesla,
you can look at the XL Y to do that as well.
It gets you the exposure to Tesla. You're going to have some other exposure too, right?
Amazon and things of that nature. But that's another one that you want to pay cheaper premiums
and try to get some exposure. You can do so. So those are some of those sectors that I'm kind
of looking at here. Dollar General up 13% in like five days. So staples actually doing pretty
well. Utilities are only like 1.3% away from all time highs. Who would have thought? Now,
if I come back and say bear market, what are the two sectors that are going to reach all time
highs first? Are industrials and utilities usually on your radar? Probably not. And this is where I
go into this extra little session here. Volumes declining on the S&P 500 composite
total volume. So you take all the volume in the S&P 500, all of those individual stocks,
you add those together. If you look at it last week, Monday, every single day, it's been lower.
In fact, on Friday, May expiration, the monthlies, which we should see a lot of volume,
that was the lowest volume
day that we had for the S&P 500 total composite for the whole week, which is out of the norm.
Usually you see actually pretty healthy volume and that's not the case here. Is that a warning
sign? It is for me. I like to have price action and volume actually compliment themselves, but
some people really don't care. That's something that is on my radar. You look at staples compared to technology, the technology sector. Staples have
been outperforming technology since Wednesday of last week. Is that normal in this type of
environment that we're going to go see all-time highs? No. And I have a comp chart. I think I
posted it in here. You guys can check it out. You can do your own comps on TOS too. But if you kind
of look at it, any sustained two more or three more days of this type of outperformance from staples compared to
technology most likely represents a potential pullback coming into the market. So keep your
eye out on that. Book depth though for the E-mini SP500 futures looks really healthy. So just gave
you some bearish points. That's a bullish point that
I always keep my eye out on. So there's people that are willing to participate. We're just not
getting orders filled as much. And the last thing I will say, once again, a follow-up,
talked about the oil trade, sell crude oil, move down, concerns about supply hitting the market.
Supply hits the market. What do you also leverage in
order to store some of that inventory tankers? TK is a tanker company that things up. I mean,
we brought this on the radar back in like April. This thing's up 30% since I believe April 21st.
So that one's a good one. But I would say if you kind of followed that trade for whatever
reason, probably take profits at this point. So that's kind of what I have right now. The
technicals on the longer term, we just had a MACD cross on the SPY weeklies. So if you go back and
look, bring up the last 20 years, usually when that cross occurs,
we see follow through for at least three weeks. Well, three weeks after the cross were higher.
So we just had that cross happen last week. So once again, I'm giving you like conflicting
things, but I'm not trying to be conflicting. I'm just trying to get people information.
Technically it's saying that we have follow through. I find that very difficult to do, but it's nice in this environment to do because
volatility is pretty cheap. So you can go and get out of the money calls, buy two weeks out,
take a shot. If it works out, it works out. If it doesn't, no harm, no foul. It's not like you're
trading a long call position at a 25 or 30 VIX, which gets expensive. You can also do diagonal spreads
as well. You can do calendar spreads as well, buying longer data calls, selling near data calls
against it in order to get some upside exposure. That's cool. You can also look at for the downside,
and this is what I've been thinking about and probably going to pull off tomorrow.
I think we do have a pullback, but I'm not really trying to risk too much money on that.
So actually looking at selling in the money credit spreads,
which is something you usually don't do,
but willing to sell in the money credit spreads,
getting out of the money call exposure ratio it up
because realize while it's still higher
than what implied volatility is right now.
So those are the things that I got.
I will kick it back. Appreciate you having me up.
Oh, I'm sorry. The port of LA is literally like, yeah, yeah, I gotta just say this. I just saw the
tweet up there. The port of LA, I mean, everybody was talking about this thing two weeks ago. No
one's talking about it now, which they should be talking about it now, because now is the time that we are seeing the slowdown.
So this week is supposed to be the slowest week of activity within that port for the whole year, a significant drop off.
I have some of the statistics posted up here.
rail moves, outbound rail moves for imported goods,
just within the port itself, literally like collapsed,
like 96% collapsed last week, which is not great.
So this is where the dock workers get laid off, right?
Last week, they weren't doing anything.
This week, they're probably not gonna be doing anything.
But you did see a small bright sign,
the June 1st week scheduling is seeing a bounce back from what
we are seeing right now. Not an aggressive one, but we are seeing a bounce back. I think
it's like three extra ships coming in. So hopefully that trajectory continues to move
to the upside. But if you were to see some type of labor pressure on the port side, it's
last week and this week.
And this week, the port activity is going to be super light,
like really, really light.
So hopefully we're on the uptrend
when it comes to these shippings
or the ships being scheduled, right?
And if that's not the case, we start seeing it stagnate
at, let's say 18, 19 ships,
then that's where we have a little bit of a bigger problem.
So that's the last thing, and then I'll kick it back.
Appreciate that, Kevin.
We've got about 12 minutes left here to the top of the hour.
We do have a hard cutoff today, but I'm going to keep the conversation going a little bit.
Josh joined us up here.
Josh, what's on your mind today?
Yeah, hey. little bit uh josh joined us up here josh what's on your mind today yeah hey uh i was i was listening to kevin and thought i'd come up and share some some uh sort of follow-on thoughts so one on the port stuff um it's it's a weird situation because on one hand
things have slowed down a lot and on the other hand there's this surge of orders and you're seeing shipping rates for cargo
ships. They rebounded and you're seeing sort of the starting activity for those boats to start to
come to the U.S. picking up. And so I don't know that I would expect a ton of people to actually
get fired in terms of dock workers, but there's definitely definitely going to be some uh i guess furloughs or whatever uh for the next
couple weeks and then um and then potentially another wave of activity there there was a huge
uh amount of activity i think it was in march ahead of liberation day, which whatever the name of it, whether or not we were liberated of our money or
jobs or whatever. And so it'll be really interesting to see, like, there's going to be
a couple of really bad prints on the oil inventory side. I would argue they're more than priced in
and sort of everyone's expecting that, but you might still see some jaw dropping numbers.
you might still see some jaw-dropping numbers.
And maybe there will be some numbers
depending on exactly how these furloughs get calculated
or counted and whether some companies
actually do just go ahead and fire some other people.
There could be some ugly employment numbers
in the short term coming up,
but then potentially some really good numbers
shortly after that as there's this next surge of reduced
tariff imports, at least for a little while. So really, it's going to be like messy, weird data.
There's a lot of, on the oil side, a lot of geopolitical risk potential that I don't really
see priced into the oil price, where there's a war going on right now in Libya, a civil war.
I guess, well, there's a civil conflict.
I don't know if it's a full on war quite yet, but Libyan oil production has been on again,
off again for the past 13 years.
And so there's a decent shot on this conflict that the over a million barrels a day that
Libya exports could get cut off.
And then there's been GPS disruptions on the Strait of Hormuz for the last couple of months intermittently.
And that happened again yesterday, along with the Iranian president indicating that if Iran's oil is cut off, well, threatening if Iran's oil exports were
cut off, that they would cut off exports through the Strait of Hormuz. This has been threatened
indirectly before, but this was one of the most overt threats by one of the most senior people
in Iran ever, I think, at least in the last several decades. And so it's a pretty big deal for that to have happened. And I think it's partly why oil prices were roughly flat today,
even with the broader market down and some other commodities down.
And then just the last thing on natural gas, they were really bullish natural gas coming into the
start of the year and natural gas prices did pretty well. We sort of started to pivot from gas over to oil and
put out something late last week and we're starting to see some significant natural gas price weakness
to the extent that the weakness that Kevin was highlighting continues. You could actually see
some pretty bad inventory prints for natural gas. And unlike for oil, where you can see some of this potential
uplift as there's this next wave of shipments and so on, some of the gas weakness could actually
persist maybe for a month or two rather than for a couple of weeks, just as this weakness is sort of
like works its way through the system and the nature of gas demand versus oil, and also the
nature of the availability of storage for gas versus oil
and just how full gas storage is versus how empty oil storage is. So anyway, it'll be really
interesting to see sort of how that plays out. And again, there could be some more, it feels like
almost everyone's sort of positioned, at least in the equities on the natural gas producers,
long and short, some of the sort of most levered and
exposed oil producers. And I think there's some room for that trade, which has worked really well
so far this year up until today to revert. Hey, Josh, a couple of things. I know we only
have a few minutes left, so I'm going to try to get really quick. The oil move today was looking actually relatively strong until we got, I don't even call it the readout, but the commentary from the Trump
Putin meeting where we started seeing that slide to the downside, right? And so I'm wondering if
the market's still maybe not fully pricing the potential for an ease of sanctions on Russian oil,
even though like the EU, I think, is trying to push that price cap down to 50 bucks.
I saw a news article about that the other day.
Obviously, it's not going to be effective.
This price cap that we have right now is not effective.
But do you think that that might be another reason why we saw that such aggressive fade going into the close, going into the open outcry close, because maybe there's
still a perception out there that maybe we will ease sanctions. I don't want to say it brings
more oil to the market per se, but it brings more oil back into, let's say the documented market. So that's one thing. And then two,
the natty side, maybe you and I can just DM this, but what do you think about Venture Global?
Because I've been, full disclosure, I have a position in that stock, right? But I mean,
it had a horrible IPO traded to around what, $6 and seven bucks or whatever,
We'll IPO traded to around, what, $6 and $7 or whatever.
Starting to get to $10.
Obviously, I think these LNG approvals are going to hit.
We'll probably get the headlines in the next couple of days or so.
But what are your thoughts on venture global?
So two questions.
I'll try to kick it back so you can kind of answer them.
And if you don't have time for the venture one, just DM me, man, and love to get your
thoughts on that one, though.
That venture global has been a big one on our stock picking competition one of the guys over there has been
beating the table on it too yeah um so uh it's venture global is complicated none none of what
i'm going to say is investment advice please do your own diligence um but there's there's big
trade-offs there one i love them as a company I think it's great what they're doing with the modular LNG facilities. Frankly, it's amazing to take $20 billion giant, essentially, factories and figure out how to make them in different factories, send them to site to assemble and finish.
factories, send them to site to assemble and finish. That's just awesome. They're basically
taking the industrial revolution and applying it to factory making. It's sort of like the
equivalent of like robots making other robots or AI making other AI. It's really cool. And
they're one of only two companies so far to build functioning modular LNG facilities. So fantastic, super impressive.
But there's a big downside, which is that partly to get the financing for that, they allegedly
violated their contracts with their LNG buyers. And in 2022,, liquefied natural gas prices soared because of the conflict
in Europe and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, they technically did not finish their facility,
even though they were shipping gas out from it.
And I think it's in either arbitration or litigation right now.
And there have been public comments by companies that typically don't comment on infrastructure
providers.
I think it was Shell and Total talking about how they will never do business with Venture
Global.
One of them, I think, is in that lawsuit.
The other was not.
And they just had nothing good to say.
Shell's in it.
I think Shell is in it for sure, if I'm not mistaken.
I think Total wasn't in it, but they still, again, very uncharacteristic.
Frankly, Total is amazing.
They have the French Foreign Legion running around all around the world protecting their stuff and doing all kinds of weird stuff.
So for Total to come out and say something on anything pretty much negative is amazing and very arguably hypocritical.
But still, they did. And so I would, I think there's a lot of complexity there. And I think
that it goes in for me, it's in the very much too hard category because of the legal risk and
uncertainty. And, and again, there's lots of, they have lots of disclosures. It's not like
they're hiding it, but it's in their financials and in their risk factors. And so I would just,
anyone that's buying that, I would highlight that and suggest researching it to try to figure it out on the oil side. Yeah, I think it's sort of
weird, like Kevin, as you were talking about that, oil prices have been talked down, I would say
about $30 a barrel from like, this peace in Ukraine narrative without unfortunately, there
being any peace in Ukraine, and there being zero evidence of any barrels withheld from the market from Russia because of sanctions.
Yeah, Ukraine has hit some Russian infrastructure,
but most of those disruptions have been very temporary.
It's sort of amazing how quickly Russia's gotten their oil back on and back into the market,
and their refineries back on and back into the market.
So, yeah, I don't think there's almost any fundamental impact for oil from that.
And to the extent that those sanctions went away, it would be very interesting for tankers
because the publicly traded tanker fleets typically are not being used to transport
sanctioned oil.
And so there would be an increase in demand for legal, like full sort of legal market tankers, and there would be reduced demand for green market tankers or sort of the illegal, like full on ones that are just breaking sanctions.
So and yeah, the fuel caps or the sanction, European sanctions on Russian oil, American sanctions, they've done nothing.
Even the Iranian sanctions so far haven't done much, but the stuff on Russia, it was designed to not have any impact on Russian exports. So I actually
see no real impact on the oil market, even though it's been used from a narrative perspective to
move oil way lower than its fair value. Anyway, I know we're out of time. So thank you guys for
having me up. Yeah, Josh, always enjoy when you join us uh especially in the second hour it's
it's great to dive deeper into some of these topics uh appreciate the whole crew i haven't
anything from you before we wrap up and go over to stock yeah i want to say make sure you're
following all the speakers up here we appreciate everyone uh it's great to have everyone up here
if you enjoy this type of content we're live every single monday thursday 3 to 5 p.m. Eastern at least. Make sure you're following the host
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Starfighters, a company we're working with. It's a space
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satellite market.
And yeah, they're trying to raise money.
We're talking through it. Obviously, that takes a lot of research and we have the team on and we want you guys to
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on our space last week that That last space was really great.
I was very much excited by how it goes.
I'm going to be putting some money in too,
but we'll see on that one.
Check out what we pinned up in the nest above.
Go if you want to see more content right now on the spaces.
Wolf can host some good stuff.
Appreciate you, Evan.
Appreciate the whole crew up here.
Sam Solid, Josh, Kevin. Great having Kevin back today. H whole crew up here sam solid uh josh kevin great having
kevin back today hanging out up here i'm going to close this out if you missed any of it it will be
recording and of course you can follow us straight over to the wolf financial account for stock picks
for the week and a spoiler alert there are two people on the panel right now that are on the
podium over there so come find out who that is and we'll see
you over there. Thank you.
