hope everyone's having a chill
Vegas I know you're excited
yeah great day excited about
look forward to talking about
thoughts on the market so
appreciate being on here with the money
I want to hear what Michael Saul has to say
today always makes us laugh
and I'm going to comment on
beautiful chart if anyone looks at
technicals they would love the
I'm surprised that SMCI didn't make it into our
you know what I didn't think about picking that one at all
but the money is just incredible how much money they made
one of my friends messaged me
and said I didn't realize they made over
14 billion dollars in sales
sell semis for a lot of money now it is
I can get my NVIDIA this week I want to see
turn it over to you let's go
I'm going to roll us into
we had another killer week
on our competition one of our better
weeks I would say out of the
picks that we gave we gave
2 of those were very slightly red
all of our green picks were
green by at least a percent and a half
2 of the red picks were red
if you look back at the week SPY was up
QQQ at the same time period
the average of all the stock picks
from this space last week
let's go ahead and let's roll into this week's
Andrew you want to kick us off with some market sentiment
yeah what's going on everyone
hope everyone is doing well having a good
Monday yeah in terms of what we're seeing
in the market this has been an
absolutely fantastic run for the
so if we take a look here
all of these indices we have the NASDAQ
and really the small caps have
been the laggard they are still
either down slightly or maybe about
market has done very well
and it's been led by the cannabis
stocks which are definitely flying under the
semiconductor stocks which are definitely
like the key theme I think most investors
are really focused on right now
so we just got some SMCI results
after the bell they had already pre-announced
some pretty good results 2 weeks ago
but now we're seeing sort of like a residual
with this being said we have a Fed
meeting coming up on Wednesday
and it seems like the scenario we're
is that the economic growth is still
and the inflation numbers that just came out
we're seeing some really good trends on the inflation
front but those numbers were
so the big risk heading into Fed Wednesday
is that Powell says hey we're not
going to end up cutting rates in March
and perhaps that leads to some
volatility in the bond market
at this point I think most
investors have just kind of thrown
in the towel on their hedges and any
sort of under exposure to the market
a pretty big risk heading
into that event and then another thing
just to keep your eye on is
there's likely going to be some retaliation
soldiers that were killed over the weekend the
so it's definitely just another
you got to be watching the news wires to see what
one thing I'd like to call out from my end
is one of my risk models is flagging
that's actually rising alongside
so for that reason I'm kind of in a more
defensive state for this week
so we'll see what happens and
I'm going to give my picks now
my first pick I'm going to go with MSOS
my pick since the beginning of
the year and we went through
the chart in detail last week but
this one really just continues to build
and build so I really believe
that this theme could do very well
for the remainder of 2024
so I'm going to stick with MSOS
I'm going to pair that with
I'm going to go short the
any sort of blowback from the FED
event for this week but yeah
thanks so much for having me up and looking forward to hearing
what was that second pick?
short the triple Q no leverage
taking no leverage in either of these picks
this week is kind of in my opinion it's kind of a
toss up with the FED so I'm going to
play it safe for this week
reminder of people that if you do want to play with double
look at this and go why did I not add
that's how I keep feeling
I didn't even notice that it was having a 10% move
I put it on my and then MSOS
you got a 15% move really really
Andrew on that I remember Andrew you started
talking about right as the year
right as soon as the year starts it's having a great start
to the year so shout out to you for that one
to date but the theme is still
in my opinion it's flying under the radar
it's definitely just continuing to hold
on that one going to hodl it for the whole year
hopefully do you have options too?
was like I don't want to screw this up
let me just go with an MSOS common
stock position and yeah I sized
into that in the beginning of the year
and the goal is just ride
it ride it ride it as long as I can
very interesting yeah well nice job
like I said 34% year to date
and since I know that you have limited
time I will give you a shout out as well
really really nice job on the week
helping to bring up the average Andrew I love to see it
let's keep going around the panel
a little bit here I suppose
guy who's going to revel in it so I'm going to
come over nice and early so that he can have
everybody know for the whole space
that he is a winner because
Mr. Mike Saul out here who took the
average return across those two
I don't know if you all remember last week
Mr. Mike Saul up here saying
I don't know if I'm the smartest guy in the room
this and that I'm saying it's always the guy who's
acting the dumbest that's the smartest so
suppose I was right suppose we were both
you want to give us your market sentiment
for this week I just wanted to come over nice and early
you know the problem with being
smart and incredibly handsome two things
you won't have to worry about
is that no one really takes you seriously
you know but the good thing about me
so that kind of rounds me out and
you know makes me the perfect person
I was watching the leader board
down and accept my medal for being
boy Andrew's closing that gap
I had like a double digit lead
on him and then all of a sudden I just kept
seeing like he was getting closer
and closer and closer I was like wow
he's gonna I'm like if he
such a big lead not of course from week to week
coming into today I'm like boy
you know the bulls are back
they're running it up we're getting
Andrew makes a very valid point which is
what happens if Mr. Powell
Chairman Powell pardon me Jerome
really ready to cut yet I know
you know we kind of did but we really didn't
later I'm assuming if he's here
a lot of numbers are really
manufacturing, production, stuff
like that but yet they're getting ignored
inflation still has a tight
just think hey you know whatever
he's still gonna cut rates I mean
I don't know there could be no landing
we could have the high growth
high inflation and things just go
I always bring up the supermarket because that's
where it hurts most for most people
but you know the prices are still crazy
but people are still ordering
and you know my friend owns a restaurant
they took a little break after
the new year and now they're back
I'm talking about the customers
they're coming back, they're ordering, they're getting
delivery, people are still
spending money, a lot of people
are still living their best
overextended, there's no other
way to put it, it's overbought
but overbought can continue a lot longer
does, oversold can also continue
a lot longer than people think but it usually
short term target on the S&P
this is when we use the SPY
but you can use whatever you
want to use up to 5.16 which
is about 25 points from here
from here which is again a little
over 5% from here which is
you know not really that much
can they get it ahead of the FOMC or
it's a buying opportunity
right now that's not going to happen here
I mean unless something really bad happens
tomorrow and we completely tank
20 day highs I don't mean that
oh you know we're just off a little bit right
but if we're just off a smidge off those 20 day highs
which today we hit new 20 day
highs obviously because we hit new
because we're at new all time highs right
so obviously we're at new 20 day highs at least
you know if we were pulling back off of those
highs I would be looking for a buying opportunity
you know again I'm not going to sit
here and say oh that means we're going to sell off
to me I just think we're extended
we're a little in the nosebleed section
I talked about it last week how
you know look doesn't mean we have to crash
but I would like us to pause a little bit
or go sideways a little bit and then continue
at 5.16 on the spine maybe we
get it this week 5% is really
thinking that maybe Powell is
going to throw a little bit of cold water on things
the other side of things and what if he throws gas
on the fire and says yeah
you know we're not cutting anything today
but we're still on pace to look for cuts
this year you know what if he says something
then the market could totally rip so again
you know you always have to look at both sides
we can all have opinions right but opinions
are like noses everybody's got one
it's okay to have an opinion
it's okay to even act on an opinion
want to wait for that validation
you know really make in my opinion you could do
whatever you want you could burn your money in your backyard
for I care but in order to really make
a financial you know a firm
financial commitment you really need
you really looking for more confirmation
so anyway I hope that wasn't all just a whole
bunch of word salad that didn't make much sense
it right too long didn't listen is
we're extended doesn't mean we can't get more
higher from here give or take which
and you know I think all eyes
are going to be on what your own
pal says this week thanks for having me on
I'll have my pics later on
thank you Mike Saul I know the
audience was appreciating the start
to that as well I got some good messages
all right let's keep it going up here
my thoughts on the market is that
I know a lot of people feel like the market's
gone too much needs to pull
back and there could be a pull
back obviously at any time
I just don't think just yet
so you know right now we have to
ride these waves right now there's a catalyst
this week with the pharmacy meeting
what is Joan Powell going to say so that's really what
you know the markets waiting to hear
what he's going to say I don't think you'll see anything
that we're going to be in shock about
I think everyone's expecting what he's going to say
you just never know he could sometimes say the
bonkers either up or down but I still think
the market's going to go higher
a lot of great strength and a lot of great
really nice to see the Russell 2000
gaining some momentum today and
some strength so I was really pleased
to finally see that one shape up
because it was very annoying last week
all you do is trade just those three
positive for the week so looking
I see weakness and lots of selling but
right now I'm still looking for strength
to continue to the upside until
people could be scared sometimes
when they're selling so you don't want to be one
of those people that's scared of the market
usually the market should be scared of you
but you should not be scared of the market
so we'll see what happens later
this week today's only Monday
Wednesday afternoon so I wouldn't
be surprised that maybe tomorrow could be
a little choppy towards the afternoon
maybe because people will
be wanting to sometimes get out of their trades
it might be a little choppy let's say Wednesday
press conference and then they'll pick
up the pace in the afternoon so
be patient is all I can tell
everyone be patient with your trades
and let the trades come to you
anything to hold overnight
and just wait until the event
is over and then you could then go into
calls or puts based on how the market
responds to his press conference
so sometimes that's the best advice
is to sit out at the event
and a lot of people do that so I'm not
doing that because I'm comfortable with my trades
a lot of March contracts with options
so I'm just going to wait it out
look forward to hearing what the panel talks about
I have my two picks for the night
for this week or for this month
but the way I got it is it's a Fibonacci
I didn't put the exact numbers and that's why
maybe it's 5.14, maybe it's 5.18
probably get the exact numbers for you
that's what I'm looking for
that's what I'm looking for
that'd be a really banana number
Nate, you ready to jump in here?
great stuff from the panel already
definitely an interesting day today
because not every sector acted the same way
then they dropped and recovered nicely
just kind of powered up all day long
some help in different areas
small caps, speaking of which
98, which is great to see
finally kind of broke up through that ceiling
everything but it's a good start
because we've been rejecting against
so I'd like to see that in small caps
because if they get rolling along with
and if the semiconductors keep going
those three, if all of them
are moving, I think markets have
nowhere to go but up with them
biotech had a strong day today
if you look at XPI it's above 90 again
to see the strength given how
extended you could consider
wedge pattern and broke well above it
today so that's very interesting
I would have guessed it would have broke
from there but instead we broke higher
volume shelf here at around
definitely a positive way to start
the week interesting ahead of FOMC
like it was mentioned and you know
kind of sneaky in the background
performing really well are industrials
so definitely keep your eye there
and XLI both just peeking
names like Caterpillar reporting
track of industrials here I would say
in the midst of all the big tech names reporting
you know also very interesting
last week I had Blackstone which did really well
to see and you know the financials
in general today that the bounce
to power higher in the sector overall
I think is also positive so
a lot of positives here and so we'll see
meeting goes and you know
Mr. Powell always likes to talk
a lot so we'll see how much of an impact
that actually has but definitely
a great start to the week so looking forward to hearing the picks
and throwing some out there a little later
I'll hand it back to get around the panel
Mr. Paper Gains what do you got
I don't know if you remember that
and she looks like she's got
some more in the tank can't believe it
so anyways that was like a juicy one
and yeah to everybody's point
we do have FOMC on Wednesday
a ton of earnings throughout
historically, statistically speaking
reporting all in the same week
we're either flat or down
we're also like peak data
so it's kind of a weird situation
that's still where my focus is
China actually doesn't look good
to me so I think there's still
a lot of trades to be had
around some earnings stuff, we got a lot of earnings
on deck, I trade earnings
so I'll have a handful of those in our
but yeah I have just a small
short list of focus trades for the week
scary enough to be a lot of earnings
trades and a lot of day trading
in between so good to see
some things like SMCI popping
off after hours, what a move
and kind of excited to see what the
we've all been saying it's
earnings will tell the story
American Express has missed so far
and their stock went up so
so far so good, that's what I'm seeing on the data
excited to hear what the picks are going to be tonight
with this big week coming up, this is like one of the
fun weeks for everyone in the audience where everybody's
got to make their picks without knowing what's going to happen
during earnings and FOMC so there's a little
bit of guesswork going on
which just makes it more interesting
alright, let's go over to
a lot of people are saying
yes, the market looks overdone
more times than I can count, overdone
actual thing, you can look
something can be overbought for an incredibly
long period of time, this to
me from just we're talking week
I think I'm counting 10 in a row
higher lows which is pretty wild
interesting is we're actually down just a little bit
in post market even with that SMCI
spy which is mainly what we're talking
about, we've got to remember how
weighted that is with big tech
and big tech's not always
going to be the thing so what
I'm looking at personally is
this rotation and rotation
markets and the reason for that phenomenon
is simply in bear markets
you sell stuff, you go to cash, in bull
markets you sell stuff, you buy other stuff
with it because you've got
not so much focused on the S&P
big tech names simply because
my job as a trader, I already own a
bunch of big techs, I already own a bunch of spy
where the money is going to rotate into
spending most of my day and I'll probably
be spending most of my week going through charts
and looking for this and for
are popping up as two sectors that
I think might be setting up for
just a little bit of that's what I would
I don't recommend anything but
if I was the people in the audience
what's going to happen with the spy
most of the people came in and said hey
I'm just going to take 25% of
the magnificent seven or whatever you'd like to call
it that's going to cause a pretty substantial
down move in big tech but
it's really not going to cause a big down move in
quote unquote the market because they're
going to redistribute those funds into
broaden your horizons a little bit I think is
going to be the theme for the next few weeks take a look
other industries that you may not have
like Andrew you know he's looking at
of looking in just interesting
so see what else is out there so
that when quote unquote the market
pulls back you're ready to
Nothing wrong with broadening those
horizons. Alright thank you
Michael Nous we're coming
you know there's going to be a lot of focus on
everywhere in this market
the upcoming FOMC meeting
that's on Wednesday with the announcement
the market has been recalibrating
and we've already seen the odds of it come
down since December from what was
40% at the moment roughly
but I think that while people
have been focused on the cut
of a completely something
else which I think many people have
and I think this upcoming FOMC
is going to be the focal point of it
talking about is potential
current quantitative tightening
program that has been in place
I mean keep in mind the Fed is right now
to help bring inflation down
it has raised the short term interest
and allowed maturing treasury
and agency mortgage backed securities
to roll off its balance sheet
hence the quantitative tightening program
are raising the borrowing cost
for households and businesses
moderating economic activity
while most people are focused
on that means we're going to start to
I think what the Fed really wants to do
which is currently running
into that the mortgage backed securities
is running at $95 billion
the evidence of that is actually right in front of us
or last weekend on Saturday
if you go back before that we just look at the
FOMC meeting minutes that came out
again direct quote from those
several participants suggested that it would
be appropriate for the committee to
that would guide a decision to
so I think this is the key to understanding
what we should expect in the
FOMC meeting with the announcement
if you're asking me where would be the element
of surprise would come on a Wednesday
I don't think it will come with
I think the element of surprise
will come when they actually say
and this is how we're going to talk
and these presidents have been
clues basically along the
way since December in front of us
so that's where the element
of surprise would come from now how much
I don't know maybe they would go from 65
billion a month to about 50
but that in itself should be
sufficient enough to put yet another
that's when I will come around later when we
start to go around the room to ask for
top picks and I'll give you what my play
on that FOMC statement is going
alright Jordan ready to cap off the market
sentiment yeah not too much
else to add for me obviously this
to the week I feel like I've been saying that a lot so maybe
maybe a little pattern on these Mondays we've been
great start to the week I know I was thinking
about shorting the market last week I was waiting
for a trigger there's no triggers to short this
market at any time right now so
we've been playing it long we've been
just going with the trend
and at the end of the day I'm just waiting for these
earnings and these FOMC numbers to
come out towards the end of the week right so
playing a little bit of spy playing a little bit
in the meantime but really just
be purchasing some protection against
my long term account and then during
FOMC obviously like if we were to rip
and I had some protection
I'd manage that and reposition
myself accordingly but I'm definitely
thinking about getting some protection
up here just cause I mean we are at these
prices it's insane that fear and
greed index is in extreme
greed that plays a little bit of
factor into it I guess for me I
like to keep an eye on it it's not a deciding factor
though so just keeping an eye
here we're gonna see how earnings is and
we'll position ourself accordingly with
that but definitely thinking about purchasing protection
alright thank you Jordan I appreciate it
the stock picking segment
week last week so perk up
I guess it was 11 out of 16
if you were taking out those
two picks that moved less than a percent
hit rate cause two of the picks
moved less than a percent but all
of the green picks moved at least a percent
and a half like I said great
from the week of course came from Mike Saul that was
second to top pick of the week came from Andrew
so really nice shot to those two guys we already did
of course get Andrew's picks but we are ready
to hear Mike Saul which you're cooking up over
there for us okay take the
Chiefs plus one and a half
they want Taylor Swift on that stage
and if anybody doesn't believe it you can just see
look at all the calls those refs made in the Chiefs
Ravens game if you don't believe it yeah go for it
was listening to the New York sports
which is basically like the gossip
column in most newspapers
and they were talking about it during the week
not just today after the fact they were saying
that this guy's was it Steve Smith
or whoever I don't know what it was really
and every time when I was listening to the game
and that guy came on I'm like wow they were really
right of course they were really wrong about
everything else like you know all the
Ravens could play the Chiefs
in Siberia and still win and
they were just you know basically giving memo
and body already but anyway so yeah
the Chiefs plus one and a half but that's not an official
play uh but I will reiterate
that next week I don't care um
I never bet against Mahomes
alright so two plays this week
iShares Biotechnology ETF
and I think that it can go back
to what's known as its pivot
152 area whatever it is so
the three time leverage biotech
I just really like the way IBB
looks but I'll take it with
to get some more juice because
just claims that you know
he's not playing it for week to week
uh I am especially now that I've won
and I know that there's a chance for me to be crowned
the ultimate most winning
cause I have a whopping one so
at least I'm off to a good start
uh I also there's everybody else who just
teases you and then he says and I'll come back
to it when it's time to pick the picks I mean
uh so a couple other stocks and I'll
give my second play but I want to talk about
a couple other stocks the first one is
Tesla from last week still hasn't
reached its ultimate target which is the 175
it's on the bounce I think
it could go low but I'm gonna pass on that
one another one I want to uh
reach out I want to say something
did you check out Disney did you see how that thing
popped today like a monster
yeah what an absolute monster
that looks like that's gonna get to a hundred
uh but that's not you know
gee thanks right that's not a real big prediction
from here we're not gonna win the contest
we are long right but I just wanted
to post those to uh bring those two
out uh and I'm not gonna go
with Tesla short what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna go with another
long and the stock is called
or I don't know data it's
INO I don't know how it's
pronounced and I don't really care the symbol
inverse head and shoulders
it popped off the neckline
right now then it went into a little
it's hanging around the 50%
November so it's hanging out
about the 50% retracement
the head and shoulders measurement it should
we also have a level to watch at about
1630 so that's good enough
for me for a play I think
it has some nice upside possible
line from uh Andrew and say
I look forward to hearing what everybody else
so these both went off like
crazy today INOD was up 7.7%
kind of been coiling a little bit here
had a really really nice bounce
a nice bounce off of 200 EMA previously
it's now back above the 21
uh it's sitting on basically
a volume shelf from 117 to
I'm curious to see where this one can go and
labu is really interesting it's
bull there's a lot of small caps in there so
if you get the move that paper and others are
looking for right hey inside of UM another's gonna
come this can pool alongside of it
and uh we've seen it really run and it's
way way way down from its all time
highs this thing hit crazy enough
I mean it's probably split adjusted at this
point but if you go back on the chart
I mean it's trading at 124.75 now
the high at the current pricing
yeah and by the way I'm not calling for
all time highs this week in case Vegas
wanted to know cause she always asks
do you mean this week no I don't I don't think it's
going from here to $3,750
no I was just talking about your spot cause
you said my target on spot
just trying to lighten the mood I know
don't worry you're still my before
anyone else it's okay Vegas
alright let me just kind of pull this up
real quick so I know the other one popped
week and a half it went from 7.66
it's not one that I personally traded but
it certainly can make a move I mean this was trading back at
beginning of last year now it's
started this year trading
started this year right around $8
now it's at 10.8 let's see where it can go
not one I'm too familiar with but I am certainly curious
let me just throw a little yeah
above the anchor view app from the recent highs
this setup it's kind of like a nick pick
Michael Tiny Saul for his
alright we're gonna go over and crown
third place on the podium
wait was this you or was this Jordan? shoot
I put in Jaguar Analytics but I gotta
take it back I'm pretty sure Jordan these were your picks
no way there's no way I got
you had shorty MPH and short FSLR didn't you?
it says I mean I looked at the spreadsheet
FSLR was green but look at the
what am I seeing alright so there's
okay it's a problem with the Google spreadsheet data
okay I apologize I bring it back
you're good the return was down
I did have these marked as shorts
Mike Nous I might need you to hop
a little bit because it is apparently showing me the wrong
thing apologies to the audience
just a reminder we use a spreadsheet
it was minor off on your spreadsheet
well it's pulling it as a long versus
short unfortunately it looks like
what was the problem here so we have
a little bit of a off with the
systems this is probably due to
me fiddling with it last week
I think that the actual numbers should all be pretty fine
in my opinion because these
all got pulled directly but paper gains let me
make sure I see it is saying it was a
let me go ahead and switch that to a short
yeah the problem it appears
with everything that happens here and unfortunately
some of the moves and stuff like that
but you know what for the audience
I'll make sure we get it right on the next one
throughout here the problem
was that the formula was not pulling
the fact that some things were picked
short but all the price changes
the price starting change
the price starting change is pulled from google finance
you are saying it is inaccurate as well
real pristine cap one didn't it?
I think that Michael Saul
still did have the accurate win because he
did have the short tesla and he did have
short view act and I believe that both of those
went from the open to the close
did both crater definitely
tesla was a big move to the
downside I still do think that
but yeah we're fixing up the sheet right now
I should have sold those to
so I believe it was dewack opening at about
50 and it's currently trading at 34
and you had tesla as well
which had a pretty sizable downside
so I'm pretty sure if I lose I'll get back
the trophy it's okay don't worry
it's gonna be like a funny little thing
I don't know if everyone remembers that Steve Harvey moment
where he brought out the trophy and he crowned
miss uh whatever it was like
it's like this one goes to miss
Zimbabwe and then he was like
someone else very awkward moment
if you haven't watched the video it's on YouTube
uh alright with that being said
you know what we're just gonna continue going along
I feel like the leaderboard we're fixing it up
but we want pics for the audience
so we are gonna come over to
Jaguar Analytics for your pics
starting off where I left off
this upcoming FOMC on Wednesday
is going to include a potential
element of surprise which will
be the Fed will set the path for
reducing the balance sheet
the tapering of the balance sheet
um and they have to do this
in my view anyway because
they're trying to target when
the reserve repo will go to zero
and the timing of that is by the end of
February anyway so I think it is coinciding
uh QT program that has been in place
since um you know for about two years
now so having said all of
if gold is going to break out
now otherwise it probably will never
you're reaching a point where
if it still does not break out
if gold still does not break out when
the Fed says oh we're not going to taper
the balance sheet by 65 billion anymore
we're going to do something less
like 50 billion and gold still does not
break out then I don't know when it's going to break out
and if you pull up the chart of GLD
or if you look at gold futures
gold futures it's a coil chart
you'll see it has been building a base
slightly above 2000 and the gold futures
starting to gradually come off that base
on Twitter will be running
to talk about gold breakout
critical that 2100 level is
on the gold futures and I think
while the chances of this is there's always
this element of speculation that's
involved going into the FOMC
but I think it's worth the shot
and now I know that some of you will say why not
go with 2x or 3x leverage
instrument that might be out there but again
to that I will just say that
I will never recommend anything that
I wouldn't buy for myself
and so I don't ever trade
the 2x and 3x leverage ETFs
for me I keep it very simple
liquid call options as is
and it could be a play if the
Fed comes out and says hey we're not
going to do the tapering at 65 billion
anymore we're going to reduce it to some smaller
number boom gold breaks out
so let's just go with long
just a comment also there was a lot of dark
so looks really good here
for continuation if it can keep
going especially if this can
earlier I think earlier today it was over
keep a watch on that level
appreciate all of those feedbacks and
all those added comments on that I think
it's worth the shot we'll see what happens
did you guys see was it just me
because I don't know if it was talked about earlier
I don't know if it was talked about
look at the breakout in DPZ
then you go to Chipotle CMG
then you go to Shake Shack
did you guys see that rally up almost
have you guys ever been to first watch? I'm sure Paper has
it's one of my favorite spot that I like to take
my kids to on a Saturday or a Sunday morning
because breakfast is the best thing
I mean that thing is going
oh no I was going to say there's one
of the best restaurant stock
but that's in the old school one
right so Cheesecake Factory
when do we ever see Cheesecake Factory
without any news just pop out of
nowhere almost 4% on the day
maybe it's trying to tell us something about
I did not see anything specific
that was industry related note
there was nothing from the analyst community
I didn't see anything but I thought this was
the one group that was really standing
watch list everywhere so I want to
go where the strength is where the relative
strength is now this is going to be
highly speculative because I could potentially
just lose my shirt on this one
tomorrow after market close
it has perfectly filled the gap that was
left behind from what was that
pulled all the way filled that gap
that has been building a base as an inverse
head and shoulders formation I see in the
chart as well and you know what when the group
with oversold conditions rounding bottom
maybe Starbucks will pop tomorrow
after market close but I don't ever really
talk in maybes I'm going to
give you some fundamental context here
that actually makes sense which
hopefully will translate into good earnings
that we have to look back at the last earnings
report because remember that time
move in a single day going from
in one day and then it still
continued to trend higher going all the way
to 107 before starting to top
and what we learned from that earnings report
which came out on October
that its store growth rate
China while the U.S. same store
sales growth is maintaining a base
was the key to unlocking that value
specifically they mentioned
that the Chinese store count
which equates to a year over
year store growth rate in China
12.5% growth in the prior quarter
heard that they said you're doing very well
in China and that's all that matters
and the stock just retired
secondly most people probably don't realize
this but recently food prices
have pulled back that means margins are
starting to inflect higher this was
visible in the last earnings report too
and since then we've only seen
milk prices, coffee prices
and other things only gradually continue
to move lower I think some
of those margin benefits were seen in
Q4 as well and that should be
reflected in this earnings report
tomorrow night again one last
thing you can see this in
the consensus view as well for
probably going to finish the year at $3.44
it's going to spike sharply to
basically looking at a company that is
going to do more than 20%
and with that sort of a background
I think there's re-rating potential
in Starbucks here after this gap fill
and I think it could begin
starting from this earnings report that
market close so my second pick is long
that was super interesting
how you were talking through some of the different
this one to the next piece over to
Starbucks really interesting
paper did you pick up taking a review leverage
all the tickers for restaurant stocks
you literally pull up any
of them it was a remarkable day
area here it just got back
it's tried to hold that level and it's
had some times where when it gets into earnings
it'll just shoot off that level
and so obviously Starbucks
earnings are tomorrow I believe
and so we'll see where that one ends up moving
should have some volatility
the last couple of earnings have had
a couple before that I think were negative
so let's see what happens on this one
seems like people are, I mean I was looking at the area for
GDXU as a possible balance and it seems like
let me just pull that up real quick
looks pretty nice, nicer than GDXU I would say
appreciate you as always for being on here
sorry to everybody for my mess up on reading out
yeah I think it's fixed now
yeah you're doing a good job
alright well I appreciate it then
well thank you Jaguar I'm going to keep it rolling
around a little bit up here
okay by the way everybody
we are coming up on the last
few speakers here, make sure of course that you are
following the speakers that are on stage
they've been doing this every week with me
we've been having these Monday evening
stock picking spaces, they've all been great
and we're going to come over to Paper Games here
I got to dip for a bit so
I'm going to follow up with that
I'm actually going to take GDXU
I do like gold, I did take the
I'm going to give a quick one
so gold looks great, it looks
the reason I'm taking GDXU
GDXU is leverage on the miners
this is again just a one week trade
if you look at the pullbacks
the rallies are from October 5th
when gold and the gold miners
kind of kicked off from the lows
where gold is a stronger retrace
there's two things keeping
so number one, the dollar, keeping gold
looking at today's chart on the dollar
and with the catalyst on deck
stabilizing the dollar should probably
come back in and that's what
I'm looking at as the catalyst for gold itself
if gold does go, that's going to be
but we also have an OPEC Plus meeting on February 1st
with the OPEC Plus meeting on deck
keeping the miners down mostly is
that's their number one cost
back down like it's doing right
comes down and gold goes up
this is like the Goldilocks of Goldilocks
plus if there's any kind of pullback
whatsoever in the market, I mean
from an index perspective
sitting near the lows, putting in
after breaking a pretty clean
I think that one's going to have a lot of beta
to the name when she goes
hopefully it's this week, if not, oh well
I don't think there's a lot of downside here
is going to be my first pick
second pick is going to be long T&A
come crashing down by any means
to roll off its balance sheet monthly
so I mean there's a lot of stuff
that's going to happen this week
there's a lot of stuff to come
we're going to get a lot of data
but I'm going to stick with
I think that's got the most room to go
I mean we're barely getting off the ground here
so I'm going to stick with what's real
I think T&A is just getting off the ground
if it's going to go, it's going to go now
we got the right catalyst on deck
I like that because it shouldn't be
what's going on with earnings and all that kind of stuff
so I like it from that perspective
and holy crap it looks like
gold features just gapped
so we probably already won
so we're probably going to lose now
we could try it from like the minute
I mean that would be accurate
GDX is going to gap tomorrow morning
based on what I'm seeing in gold features
what was the second pick with GDXU
we could take a yellow on Palantir long
so we've got all long picks so far
except for Andrew's QQQ short
okay we got just a couple more speakers to get through
let's go with Michael Nous
what was interesting about
chat jaguars that I've seen
I think number five or six
algo support for your idea there
I trade a little differently
everyone else gave a fundamental thesis
about why they're interested in XYZ
companies I talk about I really don't
but I use algorithms that spit
statistically significant trades
and then from there I use
my eye to filter those as well
we might be learning about
these companies at the same time
and as always in the chat below
I've pasted both of these
that I think is interesting
36 million therapeutics company
careful this could be a king
depending on what happens I just thought I'd put
that out there that please
be careful it looks like they do some sort
I like the look of this one
showing up on the relative strength
scanner is just we're butting up against
type pattern I like those
my mentor always told me to
buy smiley face and sell for any
faces this one looks like it could be a little
bit of a smiley face for me
right down to $12 and then
you know it's about normal volume but
that's what I like to see the main
reason that I'm looking at this one is the
call it 20% short float on this
following me for any length of time knows I
or so off their lows and heavily
because we know for a fact that these
shorts are starting to feel a little bit
of pain and might be running for the
probably the polar opposite
company got you a little worried
then we have on the other end of that
of spiked up a little bit but then
came back and then today we had a little bit
of a follow through on this one
in the relative strength algorithm seems
like it's outside of that big tech
area where I'm trying to look now
a nice rounded bottom that it looks like
we're breaking out of and
100 million shares in the float
this time so a 6 billion dollar
or market cap that's only a
1.6 billion dollar company
so definitely room from a
it's not going to be as crazy as
depending on your risk tolerance you can
take a look at one of those
Levi would have a bigger market cap
and the other one's not too tiny 1.26 billion
20% on the year and about
I like the chart especially on that
on the 1 year here on T-N-G-X
and if it can pump through those that's
usually where I know that you like to make your buck
just moving through those all time highs
then hitting a nice groove as everybody
Levi's I don't know if I've ever looked at
interesting okay they've got
from yesterday looks like their earnings
those are much better earnings than they had the last
it seems like that was shown in the stock
interested to see where these go
you got a couple clicks for us?
yeah I'll just make it quick cause I know you have another show coming up
no no no I don't have another show today
okay so I'll take my time
I'm still going to stick with Nvidia
like in the momentum and the semis
we know it doesn't allow the godfather
Nvidia is going to eventually
this year but it's definitely going to go much higher
I know people think it's overextended
and so it has to have a lot of backlog
I think the other one I'm going to pick
cause it has earnings tomorrow
but maybe I'll just stick with
so I'll stick to it with that one
all of a sudden you leverage
yeah I'm going to blow it up with semis
and see how they play out
based on obviously Nvidia's earnings
and we had S-M-C-I as well
in some of those other semis
as a result of S-M-C-I being really good
fire this year, this one's also up over
that's that triple leveraged
very nice day to day and after hours
about four and a half percent
I mean Tesla was acting nice today but
honestly I'm just staying away from Tesla right now
so it needs to prove itself
for me personally I'm not going to
other people are treating Tesla and that's great
but I'm just not interested in Tesla right now
commentary from yourself I guess?
no I just want to wish everyone success
this week with their trades and
let's see what happens after
Drumpal speaks and look forward to seeing
and I'd like to see my spy
I want to see it make a move
Michael said he's looking for
I'm going to look for this week in particular
I'm looking for spy to go towards
500 as possible but I think it's going to go to
that and goes to 500 that'll be epic
so that's going to be my target
to see how that points out
so good luck to everyone really looking
forward to the excitement in the
look forward to seeing you guys next week
yeah I'm loving these picks
you know I love semi conductors
and that sector is true as well
so I'd love to hear that from Vegas
pick from Jaguar nice break of
a recent downtrend I was looking at
that as a potential as well so
her papers shout out the high risk
of Palantir no it's not one of his picks
this week but Palantir bouncing off an
anchor view op also super interesting
so the picks this week I actually
outlined in my newsletter
and I'm just going to go ahead and put my money
where my mouth is kind of a thing
and I mentioned that industrials are
kind of sneaky behind the scenes
and we've got Caterpillar
made a new recent high today
that to continue higher possibly
a little bit of room to run ahead of earnings
I like to play that's a typical trade I like
ahead of earnings and then taking
positions off just beforehand
Datadog so completely different
from Caterpillar obviously
curling up nicely got above
quickly and had a really strong day
just super powerful candle
today so looking for that to
continue and try to get back
or even better maybe get above and push
a long day to dog here I like to set up
and everything is looking kind of
clean a couple weeks ahead
of earnings for that one that's on
February 13th so some additional room
to run so yeah a little bit from
the industrial side and then from the
tech side of the house long both
I didn't even mean to do that
do we got any other animals? animal symbols?
Nate any comment on top of mind?
is fox? fox gotta be on there
taken fox is taken of course
who knows wow that's fucked
up when you type in horse the first
brokerage is giving us chewy
what are y'all putting in the food
chewy alright no I'm just kidding
you gotta mark those down
alrighty well I've been short
I was like slightly red on M phase
but we're getting a nice little
higher low here beautiful day
today so I'm just gonna flip it I'm gonna go long M
go long Amazon for earnings
we got earnings coming up
I wanna be I'm just gonna go for
for the win hopefully I don't know we'll see
I just know if that goes good on earnings
we're gonna get a lot of percentage
there hopefully so we'll see I don't know
I'm just gonna go with that and then
the M phase long I think that looks decent
off the higher low Amazon is already
obviously it's looking it's breaking out
on the daily but this is one that
has failed to make new highs
if you gotta zoom out to like a weekly
or a monthly but gotta remember that this is
not made new highs yet so interested to see
if this can still make new highs or not but
we're gonna go for it with earnings we'll see
I wanted to let you know that we also have two picks from Story Trading
which is the Uranium play and Zim
which is a shipping play and so
we've got a bunch of picks for this week
I haven't been a little bit behind
on getting the post up so I'm
gonna get that post up in the next few
minutes and we'll make it happen
I think that's gonna do it for tonight
though with all the comments there with your paper
you got any last comments you want to get in?
Can I make a quick comment?
No make it long though so yeah so I get a minute
This is for everyone but particularly
there are rumors again don't
quote me on this I'm not smart enough to know
but there are rumors running in the last
that Biden is going to announce
actions in the Middle East that will
involve the US military very soon
CNN has a breaking news out
about this but it's not just that
outlet there's at least five other sources
Biden is going to take some
questions in the Middle East
that will involve some sort of retaliatory
grounds you know the troops
on the ground in Yemen I do not
in geopolitics whenever that's
involved gold showed us that when
Ukraine war started gold showed us that
when there was an attack on Israel
and this is now the third angle
something to keep in mind
the conflict cabinet that's where we
reach into the conflict cabinet
I guess those defense stocks
you guys don't know those defense stocks tomorrow?
I don't it's weird like the defense
on the headline stuff like that
but we'll see I mean the crew
it's move oil quite a bit
Chevron excellent they have earnings coming on Friday
there could be a lot of stuff going on but yeah
I think for gold in general
look there's a lot of cattle
I have very much the same view
before it used to be gold
or equities but or a safety
other but it's not like that
so it rallies in combination
they'll all go all at the same time
equities can do what they do and gold
can rally alongside just the same
lighter fluid on the fire sometimes
on that too because it is perplexing
right when people see the price action
Martin and Northrop Grumman last
week and how they've viciously
sold off given everything
that's happening in the world and we know defense
budgets globally are only going
for long term patient investors
are presenting buying opportunities on
this weakness but you need to be
patient most people are not patient
but you need to be patient with those
two particularly and secondly I will just say
with idiosyncratic reasons
Lockheed and Northrop Grumman why there's
weakness in both names that are going to be
at most in my view before they fix
themselves. Number one for Lockheed
of defense has asked the company
to do a major tech refresh
particularly changing the displays that are
this is a very costly undertaking
and it's taking them a very long
time to do that tech refresh
there have been a couple delays
for that reason that stock is
suffering because last quarter showed that
there's going to be another delay and higher
cost these are passing storms
they don't change the book of bill
the total bill of business that the
company has which is a record high
on Northrop Grumman there was
an issue about the B-21 bombers
details you can pull the press release yourself
you can read for yourself but
again a very specific program
that resulted in higher costs
and as a result the stock suffered
when you look at the total book
of business it's a record high
continues to go higher because the demand
for these weapons and they
just keep going up and up and up
so again these things just
reset sometimes a quarter
basis and then they quickly recover
you can expect the same exact
thing to happen with both Northrop Grumman
and Lockheed Martin the patient
investors will take advantage of it
and start accumulating positions
while everybody else will just ignore
all right all right you guys did that
perfectly you got me enough time
the post out so if anybody wants
to look at the stock picks this is the post
to go ahead and bookmark for the week
the stuff to look at add these to your watch list
all the picks out we've got one two
three four five six seven eight
nine stock pickers this week it's 18 picks
the last post on my timeline easy to find
I saw I mean I saw people confirming that
they weren't quite saying it was rumors
it was confirmation that Biden is
going to do that is what I was seeing so
yes authorized military action
so much everyone for tuning in for this one
we always do this with the competition we hope you enjoyed it
anyone that shares out the weekly
competition posts you have a special place
in my heart that's all we got for tonight
we'll talk to you all tomorrow
my first base tomorrow is we should come to trade
with Jordan at 9 a.m and then
my first base is going to be at
12 p.m eastern talking about Tesla