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STOCK PICKS FOR THE WEEK
Recorded: March 9, 2026 Duration: 1:32:39Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. All right, everybody.
We're getting ready to start Talk Stock Picks of the Week.
And my name is taj here filling
in for ryan who will be here shortly but uh it has been a great day just trying to get up all
the speakers i see jordan is up here and uh those of you that are not on the stage yet i think if
you leave just hop out and come back in uh might be glitching we're having a little technical
difficulties but there we go now nick will you guys are coming up absolutely great.
So just a rundown, of course. Normally, Ryan opens up with giving the results of last week, which has been an exciting day.
But the week has been very interesting, too, as well.
And just going over the chart picks from last week before we dive into it, We'll go around the room and hear from each of you. But looking at the chart from last week,
Sam did very, very well. I guess let me do
the top three. Then I'll do the picks of each one of them.
Sam came in first, our winner. I guess
anticlimactic. I should have started third place first.
But then second place we have
I Love Stocks. And then third, Ryan himself came in third place. So the picks that they did
absolutely crushed it. AMPX by Sam did 59.21% for the week, which absolutely just blew everything out of the water. Pretty
much he could have done no wrong. After that, he could have had me pick the rest, right?
And it would have been absolutely great. But second place was the next stock, NFLU, which is a Netflix T-Rex 2X long. And that was second place at 4.84%.
So a big gap between first place and second place.
But those are the two top picks for the week going long on AMPX and going long on NFLU.
And those are our top three for the day.
So congratulations, Sam.
You blew it out of the
water. But love to hear from the panelists and everyone that's here with us right now before
Ryan comes in. But I see Jordan, you had hopped up first. I don't know if you're free to hop on,
but I'd love to hear how things are going on your side. And we can go to Nick afterwards,
pass the mic around and hear some thoughts, craziness in the markets, and so forth.
Absolutely. Yeah, I appreciate you, Taj.
Honestly, when I look at this market, just for market sentiment, not much different than last week, I guess.
I mean, we're still stuck in this range, as everybody knows.
Interesting gap down last night on the futures and then got brutally bought up by the bulls.
So I think we're just seeing a repeat of what we've seen, you know, drop down to the bottom of the range.
Bulls buy it up.
And we're still having a ton of volatility.
I think VIX spiked to 31 today, which I don't think we've seen that since April of last year.
So just a lot of volatility.
Not really going anywhere, though, right?
Right back in the smack dab middle of this range. So I'm still just waiting for us to get out of this spot, but
it's been some decent intraday trading with all the volatility. So I guess for market sentiment,
I guess I have to feel a little bit more bullish coming off the bottom of the range,
how we did to start the Monday or start the week. But overall, just don't have a whole lot of conviction or clarity for where we
can really go next. I guess, you know, I do notice just these previous highs from February 11th and
February 25th that, you know, if we can get some legs, I'd like to see us trade back into there.
But overall, just again again not a whole lot
of clarity that i'm personally seeing except for the fact that we just got brutally bought up from
the bottom of the range right and filled those overnight gaps which was great i'd only thing i
have that uh might i don't know yes and ym filled the gaps i was gonna say yes and uh uh rty and ym
towards the end of the day didn't quite fill their gap all the way. So I was thinking, oh, if those are still open, maybe we can get
some continued bullishness from there to fill those gaps into tomorrow. But those are filled
as well. So again, just like everywhere I look, I'm like, OK, this looks great. But where's the
clarity for continuation here?
I just don't see it yet.
So we really need to get out of this range at some point here for me to have a little
bit more conviction in this market.
But I guess you could say I'm a little more bullish this week.
But yeah, those are my thoughts right now.
Just a tough market to be in.
I recommend people size down in this volatility and honestly take less trades. I've
taken three trades this entire month of trading. And as a day trader, it's pretty light, right?
That's all I've done this whole month. So keeping it light, keeping the size down,
and waiting for this market to clean up a bit. So those are my thoughts right now, Taj.
Awesome. Now, I really appreciate that. Great
thoughts there. And I will pass it to Nick. Hey, Taj. Nice to meet you. Thanks for having
me on today. I think this is, I want to say, probably the most frustrating market that I've
traded. Thank you, Nick. It is tough, man.
It is extremely tough. Because if you were just in a downtrend,
it would be one thing.
Yeah. Because if you were just in a downtrend, it'd be nice and easy.
We could short pops and then actually have like three days of extending lower.
And if it was in an uptrend, that'd be fine. But they're just every single day, it's like an equal
balance of positive action under the hood or negative action under the hood. And if you look
back, like the last three times we undercut the year to date lows, we had a two to three day rally
after that. We did that on the 17th, undercut and rally. We did that on the 17th undercut and rally. We did that on the last Tuesday.
On the third, we had kind of a two day bounce. And then just immediately again today, when
the market opened on the NASDAQ, we undercut that low, and we just rip back higher. And
then 13 of the last 16 trading days, we've had closes above our opening price. So even
while we've seen really poor
action out of like the optics names, the memory names, semiconductors lost their 50-day moving
average, the things that had gotten beaten up, software, cybersecurity, those actually had a
nice seven or eight-day rally. So the market just keeps churning. And wherever you typically get stopped
out or place your stops, that should be your entry tactic. And wherever you typically would buy a
breakout, that should be your short entry tactic. Because if you're playing in a range, which we've
been in since February, the best risk reward is on those undercut and reclaims to go long and then uppercut and
failures to go short. It turns us way more into a day trader's market and I would rather be a swing
trader. I'm not getting much traction really on either side. I'm getting positioned well,
but then there's really not like the follow through that I look for to kind of like move
the needle on my account.
So it's been two steps forward, a step and a half back, sometimes two steps back.
But overall, like we do have the indexes are getting bought up on all these dips.
And the other thing that does keep me semi bullish is we have new kind of merchandise from earnings winners that continue
to show great relative strength. We had AOI, which made like 100% move. And then today,
after a big reversal on Friday, closed right at the high of the day, new closing high for AOI.
Circle, big earnings beat, and then has just been massively accumulated since then.
AMPX, congratulations. I think
Sam picked that from last week. That was an awesome move. We have Fastly, BW, and some
other names like RNG and FIGS. So typically in a tougher environment, you wouldn't expect
earnings gap ups to continue to be bought up. But we are seeing that. So I don't know how anyone can be extremely
confident about any direction that the market's going to head. I just know as a trader, I need to
really, really focus on good, clean trading where I'm managing my risk very quickly.
I'm using alternative entry tactics in a range bound market. I'm selling a third or a quarter into the initial pop, getting my stops break even.
And this is a market where you survive and you're trying to find what are the new leading
stocks that can eventually take us higher if we start a new uptrend.
But if you're trying to kill the market at every single twist and turn here, if you're
a day trader, yeah, this is the
market for you. But if you're a swing trader, this is a market where it's going to frustrate you if
you're trading with very large size. For me, just size down, grade those ranges, and then keep a
really close eye on any stocks that beat on earnings and get bought up more than just one
day, some follow-through buying on that.
Because when we do come out of this correction,
and I know technically it's not a correction based on price,
but through time, chances are it's going to be with new leaders.
And those are the stocks that I want to be most focused on.
Great takes there.
Yeah, I really love that, breaking it down and just being honest that
yeah there's definitely an interesting market to say the least but the second place man himself
i love stocks i will pass it over to you and uh hear your thoughts as to what you're looking on
and uh just your thoughts sentiments for the market today okay well i want to let you guys
know the market kind of was a bit
of a dramatic intraday reversal today.
We started the day sharply lower
because there was fears, obviously, of this
prolonged Middle East conflict
and the oil spike in above 100 to
119 a barrel, and really
the highest since 2022
due to the disruptions in the
streets of Hormuz and
obviously production cuts.
And then the market did pull back earlier as well based on stagnation worries and higher energy costs,
really pressuring inflation and growth.
But, you know, the sentiment obviously flipped after the president signaled that the U.S.-Israel war with Iran is very complete or nearing an end.
And these were his remarks that he made on True Social and obviously on CBS.
And it was easing some supply disruption fears and oil prices reversed very hard.
If you actually follow the WTI crude, that settled around 85 to 95, down sharply from
inch day highs with post-close drops towards $81 in some reports.
The Dow Jones recovered solidly.
Same with the S&P, the NASDAQ composite.
We saw some strength today, obviously, in some tech growth names like NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD.
And it was nice to see also like the small cap Russell 2000 bounced up as well.
I felt like oil volatility was very dominating today,
kind of surged early today,
and then kind of collapsed on this de-escalation hopes
and then also the G7 discussions on political
and potential strategic reserve releases.
And so this did alleviate inflation fears.
It did kind of boost the risk appetite.
You know, I do agree with the panel.
The market has been very
choppy, very weak recently. The prior week, we've had a lot of losses, the VIX was spiking,
the fear gauge hit around 30 intraday before kind of easing up. We saw some tech rotation,
tech and semiconductors did outperform. And then we kind of saw like the airlines and energy kind of mixed and defense
kind of lagged in the rebound. So I feel like today, very volatile, but a bullish close. I feel
that the stocks shook off any panic and ended firmly higher on signs that the worst of the oil
shock and the geopolitical premium could be fading. So my thing is that if the de-escalation can hold,
I think this will stabilize things a lot further. And I think what we need to really watch is oil.
We really got to watch oil closely tomorrow. And I know the president is speaking today at 5.30.
He's doing a press conference. So I'm not sure what he's going to say there. But he did say
a few minutes ago that the Iran operation is going to end pretty quickly, and that the Gulf
allies have been a major help in the Iran war, and that Iran has very few missile launches left,
and that the strikes against the target drone production sites have been very effective. So sounds like some more positive news is coming. So we've just got to just monitor oil
closely. And I think we'll have some stability here with the market being a little more stable.
But I do agree also, I feel like the dips are getting bought. I mean, such great buying
opportunities in some longer term companies like the NVIDIAs. I mean, such great buying opportunities in some longer-term companies
like the NVIDIAs of the world, the Teslas of the world.
Those have been phenomenal opportunities to buy some discounted
long-term investing stocks.
And I'm talking, like, when I say long-term, I'm talking two to five years.
I'm not talking a week or two.
That's not long-term.
So that's my thoughts on uh where how the markets
are for today awesome great takes there really appreciate it and my apologies not speaking for
ryan or wolf when i said uh second place lady is what i should have said my fault uh but definitely
uh great picks that you had great commentary and
everything and what i want to say also is that uh just a broad overview really appreciate those
things but uh also who just popped up on the screen i see that uh chris pass it over to you
any thoughts your sentiments as to what's going on today? And then we could pass it around
to hear a little bit more thoughts about what's going on in the markets. Yeah, I mean, when I
look at this, I don't think that the US was really gung-ho on going into Iran in the first place,
to be honest with you. All the data that I've been looking at is pretty much that the Israelis
really wanted to take advantage of this current situation over
there where the supreme leader was meeting. And the Israelis said, look, we're going to go with
or without you. And the US said, look, if you go without us, then it's going to be more difficult
for us to come in later. So they kind of changed their minds last minute. From what I read,
the nuclear talks were pretty much settled right before this
happened. So this has kind of been a weird situation where the Trump administration has
been trying to diplomatically negotiate this thing down with Netanyahu and the Israelis trying to
foil those negotiations. Because for them, they're thinking more long-term. They're like,
look, whatever negotiation that you may put on paper, these guys are going to violate it. And
the only way that we're going to get any security guarantees is by knocking out as much real
infrastructure as possible. And so, you know, there's, I don't, like I said, I don't think
that the US's appetite for this war was that like strong to begin with. And once they entered, they were like, look, we're just
going to do what we need to, and then we're going to get out. So you can see that today with
President Trump basically announcing that, you know what, we're done. So I think the thing to
watch here now is we're probably in this zone of de-escalation where I think mutually there are off ramps being built between the GCC working with
the current Iranian leadership and the Israelis putting, still they're going to keep pressure on
these guys. But essentially, the infrastructure part of the system is pretty much dismantled. So
I think this isn't a complete victory,
but it is a partial one in my opinion. And it's enough to the point where the markets are saying to themselves like, hey, wait a second, maybe this isn't going to be a drawn out
2001 invasion scenario that we had with Afghanistan. So in which case,
longer term, oil shocks will dissipate. And which case you also saw that because of the
backwardation in the market. So the front months were loaded up with a bunch of speculators just
jumping in, buying front month contracts. But then all the back end was pretty much, you know,
pretty sanguine. It wasn't that bad. So yeah, I think we're just going to get more normalization
rather quickly. And I think this
is a good time to take advantage of the market being a little bit panicked and buying the
companies that have been double hit by this panic selling. And one of the areas, of course, is SaaS.
I think there are great SaaS companies out there right now that have been way oversold because of
the introduction of Claude Bot or Moldbook
or whatever they're calling themselves these days. And from what I'm seeing with earnings,
they're not slowing down at all. So I think this is one of those opportunities where the market is
basically being driven more on sentiment than reality. And the best thing to do, especially
if you're a more longer term investor, not just trying to swing is finding those companies that have significant cash flows that can buy back
shares at a heavy discount. And you'll see the earnings growth accelerate going forward,
even if their top line is, you know, moderating somewhat compared to what it was like a few years
ago. So, you know, I'm looking at these companies and saying,
okay, yeah, I think this is a good time
to find an entry point.
Great stuff there.
My apologies.
I was doing a screen refresh.
Jordan, I don't know if I missed everyone.
I got everyone that's on stage
because I just did a screen refresh
and now everyone's a listener.
So I don't know. I think we should hit guys what's up will yeah what's up what's up jordan so it's a um it's a it's a very like i said very hard market to trade um
i think that we've seen so much ping-ponging back and forth where you've seen these, you know, overnight sessions that are down and then, you know, they get bought up intraday or vice versa.
We're up overnight and then they get sold off.
And we've really just been in this balance range in the queues for, you know, the last, I don't know, three, two, three weeks between, you know, 600 and 610.
So the next move is when we break out of balance, you're going
to get some expansion of range. And it seems like tech has held up a little bit better. I think the
S&P, where we are, I mean, we have created obviously probe new lows down to that 6630-ish
level. And we've rallied right to a key area, which is going to be the 6,800.
And there is some overhead supply that we do need to chop through. So like Jordan said,
I don't think there's a ton of clarity yet. Trump obviously making these comments about the war
is one thing if it deescalates, but I don't think we're out of the woods right yet. I would not
take this as a victory lap. There could be some still two-sided action.
But aside from Iran, under the surface, the market's been breaking down for the latter of two to three months now.
And we've had sideways chop.
You've had tech that was weak.
And then on top of that, we just had, I think everybody's, this was overshadowed by Friday,
but we just had a non-farm payrolls number that was negative 92,000. And then you still have the
issues in private credit that have been going on for the past two, three months. So I don't think
we're out of the woods yet as far as to say, hey, it's all clear. We're just ripping to all-time
highs and get long right here. I would be very patient. Usually the first break lower out of this base below 6,800,
I think that it's probably a move that I would watch carefully before I'd be rushing back into
buy stuff. Now, the software names and some of the other names that were already down 50 60 percent sure there's
great buys in those names but um i still think there's a little bit of risk out there so i'd be
patient keep your size small um and just kind of and watch for opportunity because there could be
volatility we could go tonight and there could be headlines out of iran oil could go right back to
105 and we could be you know or 500 points in the future.
So don't think for a minute that that's not a possibility, regardless of Trump kind of said the same thing he said Friday,
that the war, it's going to be wrapping up.
We're ahead of schedule or whatever he said on Friday and oil still opened up, went to 120 last night.
So I think you need to be careful.
Look for, you know, it's a stock pickers market,
find the stuff that's got a good support levels that you like. And like I said, I just don't
think we're out of the woods yet as far as the jobs front and then the private equity and credit
situation, because once again, you know, yield spreads are continuing to widen. And I think
that's even probably more of a bigger
deal than what's going on in the war is that if we have widening credit spreads and that spreads
into other things, that's going to have issues with obviously the banks and, you know, some other
stuff that's going on. So I don't think we're out of the woods yet, but just stay nimble and look
for opportunities where you see it. And it can be on both sides.
It can be long. It can be short. If you're an option seller, this is a phenomenal time to be
selling premium as the VIX hit 35 today. This is a great time to be selling out of the money
spreads and stuff like that. So that's kind of the angle I'm taking. And I think it'll be
an interesting market over the next three to six weeks.
It definitely is an interesting market.
Even when I was looking overnight, just a few things.
I was surfing the timeline, seeing what's going on.
Even in Nikkei. Nikkei dumped 4,000 last night.
When we're coming to this side,
when we're getting ready to open,
I was like, wow, wonder how this is going to be.
And good thing I'm not in the business
of predicting the future
because today's been very interesting.
If I had wrote down everything and put it out there,
what I expected for today,
I would have been personally wrong on my personal side.
But as far as going forward and looking at the different
things, navigating these uncertain times and so forth, Jordan, I know you have a very specific
style on how you approach things and look at things. But what are you really looking at,
I guess you'd say generally from this point going forward to really get comfortable with what you're
seeing? Because there's crazy things that's happening is there a specific source of news or what you're looking to really break or pivot
to uh really uh get bold and confident within your strategy to go forward i think for me it's
just more the clarity of the setups in the morning especially like i i have a very like specific
window that i trade i'm not sitting here trading all day. If I don't get my trade by 11 o'clock Eastern, then I'm not trading that day.
That's just the way it is because I know that the efficient moves are going to be that first, you know, two, three hours of the market open.
And so I think right now I'm just waiting for that real efficiency of price wanting to seek out higher timeframe levels.
And it seems like right now, it's just we're not actively trying to seek these higher timeframe
areas in the market. And that's where you kind of get what Nick was talking about, where we just
kind of get these equal days back and forth of basically the same price action, just up and down,
up and down, up and down every other day.
Right. And so I guess for me, what I need to see is just the break of that pattern. And
actually, even if it's downside, like I could care less downside upside, either way,
whatever news catalyst can break us out of this range and just get actual price wanting to seek
a higher timeframe area right now is what I'm looking for.
Right. And maybe maybe a piece of news makes that, you know, come to fruition.
I don't know. Usually it's some sort of news.
But it's funny. I talk about news.
It's funny because I actually don't care about news much at all.
And this might be different for everybody on the panel.
But for me, it's more just, hey, we got economic data. Great. I need to know the time that that's coming out and,
you know, because we could affect the market. Right. It's about as simple as that. I never
am sitting there looking at data going, hey, this is bullish or this is bearish. To me, that's just
that gets slippery when you start doing that. And it can be a whole lot of noise making decisions for you when it doesn't need to.
And so I'm going to do my best to not let the news necessarily make decisions for me, but hopefully
look for those catalysts that will break us out of this area. And again, just look for that
efficiency and price. And what I mean by efficiency is simply just, hey, how clean are we delivering
price? How clean are we delivering and seeking out these
clear levels? And right now we just, we just don't have that. So I guess that's what I need to see
a little more clarity in the mornings, right? Right. Right now it's, you know, with my system,
I'm using higher timeframe order flow a lot of the time, right? Imbalances in price, fair value
gaps, whatever you want to call them. And right now, a lot of the time in this inefficient kind of
environment, you'll see us getting in these tight ranges where we're respecting bearish order flow,
we're holding in the bearish zone, but we're also respecting bullish order flow at the bottom of
the range. And it's within a very tight range. And so that's when things get sloppy because
market just isn't clearly delivering in one direction. Right. And so, yeah, that's what I, that's why I need to see.
I need to see that higher timeframe kind of clean up with those imbalances and, and just
start clearly respecting one side rather than trying to respect both sides, if that makes
sense.
I know it's a little hard on spaces.
I can't actively show you what I'm talking about, but I hope, hope I did a decent enough
but I hope I did a decent enough explanation for everybody in the audience there.
explanation for everybody in the audience there.
It's always great that you guys have your live streams and everything's visual.
It's those of you that don't know, always streaming, showing the charts,
do live trading throughout the day, which I always think is just really great
because you can see.
So some of these explanations don't necessarily translate very well audibly,
but there is that visual aspect to it if
you check out the live stream. So I just want to put that in there, check out Wolf Trading during
the day. But I'll go to Nick. Any thoughts on that in particular? Like what are you doing to
cut through the noise, your strategy going forward? Are you a news person? And then we
can check out I Love Stocks afterwards. Yeah. To me, when we're in a trading range, the best entries are undercut and reclaims.
So that could be an undercut of a previous day's low, a support gap, a key moving average,
a round number, stuff like that.
For me to actually size up, though, the NASDAQ has to get over the 50-day moving average,
The NASDAQ has to get over the 50-day moving average, has to get over the 20-day.
has to get over the 20-day.
And then we also need to see the leaders continue to hold up well.
And individual leaders, I think, are doing fine.
But there's still just so, so much volatility.
If you look back at the correction that we came out of or the bear market, whatever it was, April of last year, and you didn't buy anything until we were, let's see, if
you didn't buy anything until we were 26% above the lows, where you actually saw volatility
decrease on the indexes, and then growth names continue to break out new group after new
group after new group, you still had four months to make plenty of easy money.
So right now I'm seeing all the volatility on the index
and weak closes strong or weak open strong closes is positive.
But the volatility and like the price compared to the moving averages
is not what you see in an easy dollar environment.
So smaller size until we get above the 50-day and volatility compresses on the indexes and we see
some new themes emerging in the market. I'm not personally like a news guy. I'm not smart enough
to know exactly what like all the war is going to break down into. But I'm looking at when price can fail at certain spots.
So like this morning, we've undercut the lows of the year on pretty bad news, I would say, like a lot of fear.
And then we reverse it in rally.
So that's a point where you can like operate around, get some risk on the market, manage your stops
against the low of the day really tight risk there but I don't have a crystal ball. I don't
know how this market is going to end up. I'm just going to use progressive exposure to
pull me into the market if it continues to strengthen or push me back out of the market
if we chop lower. Great stuff there. And I love stocks. Any thoughts about cutting through the noise
and your views on news? Just keeping track of everything that's going on.
You know, I just like to follow price action. I actually have a tendency, like, I just cut the noise out because this, this, these headlines about the war
and this and that is ongoing. And like, throughout the day, you'll hear commentary from the, you know,
squawk, squawk box, and you'll hear feedback, you'll commentators on TV, even Jim Cramer putting
out a post about how the war disruptions could send oil to almost $200 a barrel.
So, I mean, he said that yesterday.
So, you know, people see all that stuff and it really does affect you because you're like, you know, you want to trade.
You're like, I'm not sure because it's the headlines.
I'd like to just shut the noise off.
I am not in a swing trader mentality right now at all.
I am not in a swing trader mentality right now at all.
I am swinging a couple things right now, but not big sizes because I'm waiting for confirmation on some directional moves.
So right now I'm a very focused day trade mentality.
And you have to basically look at the volume because volume precedes price.
You have to basically look at the volume because volume precedes price.
And you know what?
Today was a fantastic opportunity to size up on some really good, you know, especially like with Spy.
And really just ride it up.
Ride that momentum and just sell the rips.
You know, just don't even hold it.
Because, I mean, I could have held it more and more.
I didn't care.
I just sold everything.
And I took some Spy calls around 27 cents and I sold them up five bucks I'm like I'm out of here
and they actually went higher they went to almost eight dollars but I didn't care I left money on
the table but it didn't matter because in this environment you really just want to be in and out
we got to shut the noise off because if you if you overthink all these headlines, you're going to paralyze yourself and you're not going to execute when the trades
present themselves. So I think it's really important to like, you still in the back of your
mind, you know that these things are going on, but you cannot let it disrupt your focus. So
that's, that's kind of like my thought process and my advice. You know, right now, I just take it one day at a time.
I mean, you know, to your point, I think it was Will that mentioned some comments about, you know, the president.
Like, is he going to say something else tomorrow?
You know, are they going to de-escalate or are they going to continue?
You know what?
We don't know, right?
Like you said, you can wake up to oil being X number of dollars and we're back to where we were this morning. So just take it one day at a time. You know, sometimes I take it hour by hour by hour sometimes. I'm like, okay, we're going into power hour now. So let's see how the market wants to close.
strides and I don't over overanalyze all that stuff. I don't overthink anything. I just pay
attention, really let the price action determine if I want to go in and I want to get out. So I
don't let this noise stuff clog your brain because that's what it can do. It can really, really
affect your thinking. So really just try to shut it off. And if you have a hard time doing that,
then really just don't trade like just sit tight and
wait for those uh power trends that we will eventually get because when we get a power trend
the market will go crazy i mean i cannot believe how crazy it went on one simple comment that the
war is going to be over soon the market went nuts and uh i mean i saw this fight go up like over set
over nine dollars in like minutes.
So that was like incredible to see.
It just shows how resilient this market really is.
Very forgiving about all these things that have happened in the past.
And the other thing I just want to comment on, because it was mentioned about, you know, the comments about the war and how, you know, how in how long it's going to take and things like that.
and how long it's going to take and things like that.
If you actually look at some history,
when we look at some conflicts and recoveries,
with the Israel-Hamas war,
the market was down like 2.4%,
recovered over 25%.
The Russia-Ukraine invasion,
the market was down like 2.9%,
recovered like 18%. Then we had the Solomayn-Iran strike
back then, market was down about 0.7, recovered like 67%. So the point is, is that chaos creates
opportunity, which means the more of the former there is, the more of the latter you will have.
So I think it's really important to understand
that conflicts happen and it's going to affect the market negatively. However, when things recover,
you know, obviously the panic sell-offs and recovery from the bottoms, you'll see some epic,
epic gains happening here. So I think, you know, chaos is an opportunity. So take advantage of the chaos.
That's my two cents.
Great two cents there.
It's like that little finger quote, chaos is a ladder.
Like that one?
Chaos is opportunity. And the more of it, the louder you have
The more of the louder you have
Before we go into the picks
I was just wondering, since you opened up
Chris, any thoughts on that?
We kind of went all over the place
But of course, still talking about news
Cutting through the noise, strategies and so forth
If you'd like to add anything
And then we'll afterwards,
if there's anything or we can just go straight into pick,
whichever you'd prefer.
But I want to give you the opportunity since everyone else kind of responded
to that.
Love to hear your thoughts.
Yeah.
I mean, for me, I don't typically like looking at like politics as a way
to kind of invest.
But there are times where, you know, you do have some level of exposure to an industry
and politics is exactly what's going to cause you
to be up and down, right?
So you have to sort of pay attention
and just understand when there is news
that could theoretically be detrimental
to the business model, you know,
it might be the best time to get out before the impacts of that
specific change actually come through. Like I said, it's one of those things that I don't like
looking at it because sometimes it does throw me off and I do panic once in a while. It's one of
those things that I've learned over the 20 years. I've never met anyone that's like, oh yeah, the markets are crashing and I'm fine.
Everything is great.
Emotionally, I'm very stable.
Like, no, it just, people learn to control it over a long period of time.
And, you know, and one of the things is like, you sort of need to keep yourself aware of things.
keep yourself aware of things and over time you'll understand where there's things that are
actually a giant sea change or whether they're just small blips in the way up. For me, I look
at this current situation and the one thing that we've noticed over the last few years is there's
a threshold of pain that the administration is willing to accept and once you get close to that
threshold of pain,
you're gonna see a reversal somewhere along the way.
Whether that be a policy decision,
whether that's a comment that could lead
to a little bit more optimism.
And so I think sometimes the key here is just,
when things get dark with this administration,
you can somewhat reliably say,
hey, listen, I think that we're getting to the point
where this could be an opportunity,
even if it's a short-term opportunity to take advantage of.
Other than that, no, I just think right now
there's a lot of great things that are currently on sale
in the SaaS world that I think are worth pursuing,
especially if you have a long
enough time horizon.
And I think private equity and private credit could end up being a opportunity as well sometime
later this year.
I'm not sure I want to jump into any of the private equity companies right now, but there
are some that have a lot of permanent capital that are not going anywhere.
Yes, some of it definitely deserves to be marked down,
especially if they have exposure to a lot of commercial real estate
and even some SaaS names that they lent into.
But I think that there's still a lot of value there.
So when you're seeing certain BDCs trading at like 30, 40 cents off on the, I mean, 30, 40 cents lower than their nav.
There's a certain risk that's already kind of like risk safety that's already kind of built in there that could be an opportunity.
And then there's, of course, you know, you could just buy the private equity firms themselves, which are some of them are trading at pretty significant lows relative to the strength of the business
that they have underlying. I mean, they've got a ton of AUM behind them. A lot of that is permanent
capital that's not going anywhere. And whatever we're seeing right now, it's more likely that
it's more liquidity issues than it's actual structural issues. So once again, these are,
this is the kind of opportunities that I like seeing because it gives you that opportunity to add something that you could hold on to for the next 10, 15, well, not even 10, but I'm saying like five, maybe five years and do extremely well on.
As long as the management team is good and you understand what you're getting yourself into and, you know, all the stuff there.
you know, all the stuff there.
Awesome. Ryan, I see that you're up on the stage and we just kind of went around just
sentiments as what's going on in space. And of course, just what we're doing to cut through
the noise and look at different things. I don't know if there's anything that will you want to
just respond to, or we can dive right into the stock picks. I'll pass it to Ryan to take over
and start getting those picks. But any thoughts on that before we go to Ryan? to just respond to or we can dive right into the stock picks i'll pass it to ryan to take over and
start getting those picks but uh any thoughts on that before we go to ryan yeah i think the then like these headlines obviously will get you whipped in both directions and you know if you're
day trading like you know a lot of us are ryan and i and the rest of the crew like it's great for us
because like we you know we're trading certain levels and we can trade on news and like that's great now if you're looking for um you know if you're trying to
swing positions it's been a little bit more difficult because you could have swung puts
to the downside and then they you know you get a big candle today and then those all go away so
you got to monetize the short-term trading when you can uh but i think you know there are good
obviously opportunities in the software space there's good opportunities in a lot of different names that have come down a lot.
I just think that structurally the market, we need to get back above the 50-day.
I think the 6800 level in SPX will be a big deal.
And if we can get back above there, then yeah, there's a certain possibility we could definitely go higher.
I think just until then to kind of cut through the noise, I think you need to be nimble, keep your size small, go find the stuff that you like to buy. And if you're
an option seller, this is a great time with an elevated VIX to sell premium. But historically,
when you get the VIX north of 30, we hit 35 today at the open or intraday, the intraday low,
I should say. And really, I mean, once you get up there we did clear you know the
october um uh high there in the vix and then also november we had kind of a double top in a similar
area so we did we did obviously move way up we closed way down now let's see if the vix can kind
of just fade off from here and that would probably put a bit under equities for now but i think nq or q's above
610 and um if you're looking at the spy i think the level you got to watch here is right at like
you know 60 680 and um see if you know we we get back above or reclaim these moving averages the
9 and the 21 is the ones i use and then obviously the 50 if you can do that then it probably is a
move back to the upside i think that that will be a good trade. If it's not, if we reject those areas, you know, I definitely think it's
possible we could trade down to the 200 and spy, which is a 656 and then that low at 650.
And then if, you know, things open up further where we see more downside, I would not take
like 600 off your radar if things were to sell more aggressively.
So I think you need to be kind of prepared for either side of the market. Don't get hung up on
one narrative because just because we get one headline from Trump, like I just said,
you can certainly have more headlines overnight and it gets ratcheted up even further and oils
back to the upside and futures are back to the downside. So just be careful and keep your
size light and try to stay small with what you're trading so you don't get ran over. Because I'm
sure there was a lot of people that got ran over in oil. I was one of them. As some of these guys
know, I was trying to short it into the weekend and got killed. And fortunately, I was able to
to scramble back today and get a lot of that back. So be careful, keep your size small.
scramble back today and get a lot of that back. So be careful. Keep your size small.
One thing I'm glad you mentioned is just people are not understanding how Ivy works. And I think
some people are buying into, like I saw yesterday, a bunch of people buying call options on USO
thinking, oh, this is going to go up like to 200. And I'm like, yeah, that's great. But at the same
time, look at the premium that you're paying. Yeah, the implied vol is so high. It's such a great point. I'll just add on to that
real quick. We were talking about this today on stream and last night a little bit, is that
when the VIX is very high, volatility affects calls and puts. And I see a lot of people like,
well, when the VIX is high, it doesn't affect the calls. And I'm like, that's false because volatility is bit into both sides. So as the
market rallies and the VIX comes out, if you're buying calls outright, the relative return that
you're getting on those calls is less because as the volatility comes out, it's actually working
slightly against your call position. So you have to be, I think if you're
in a high VIX and you want to get long to the upside, I much prefer to do call spreads or do
ratio spread or broken wing butterfly or something like that, where you do have some short options in
there that when that volatility decays, it actually helps the profitability a little bit,
depending on how you structure it. So to your point, you're
exactly right. You do not want to be buying options when the IV rank and the VIX is spiked.
That is not the time to be buying. I always use this analogy for trading options is you want to
buy insurance before your house is on fire. You don't go buy the insurance when the house is
already burning because you're going to pay a significant premium, right?
So try, you know, we said this on stream a handful of times.
I'd said this for the past month or two.
I said when the VIX was 15, 14, I said, now if you want to go out and hedge your portfolio for volatility,
this is the time that you want to buy puts to the downside, 90 days, 120 days out to hedge your portfolio when the VIX is very low. That's when you want
to be buying debit spreads or paying a debit for options. And when the VIX is high is the time that
you want to be selling premium and deploying premium selling strategies like iron condors
or strangles or put spreads. Those are the things that you want to be utilizing in this type of environment.
Amazing back and forth there, per usual.
Sorry I'm a little bit late.
I was having to cover a little bit over on the other space this afternoon.
It's all Evan's fault, as always.
We just blame Evan for everything. But no, either way, great to be here.
I appreciate Taj stepping in, holding things down.
I know the crew crush it as normal.
Sam, I can't tell if you're up here on stage or not. Is Sam up here?
I think he is.
No, I'm not.
There he is.
I'm not.
Okay, he's not.
By the way, I'm sure you guys went over the results earlier.
I don't guess Sam was here either, but Sam absolutely crushed.
That AMPX long, 59.21% return.
Basically a 30% return.
Nailed that one.
Sam, did you want to share any thoughts?
And then we'll dive into the picks before the top of the hour.
I mean, you guys probably already talked about it.
We're so back.
We're so cooked.
We're so back.
You know, honestly, every single time we get like an engulfing channel
to the upside and downside, I always feel like, man, we're back or we're so over.
And like, there's just no follow through the next day.
But I have to say that given the worst possible event outcome that we saw over the weekend,
and yeah, we did get some good news and stuff throughout the day.
But like markets usually bottom when you get the worst news and it closes green.
So there were some catalysts to the upside in the middle of the day,
but it was already turning green before Trump even said anything.
So I would really say that it's possibly might have bottomed
because of what the price is telling me today.
And we did close, almost close above all the moving averages on the Qs.
SPY, I believe we did close above the moving averages, which is great to see.
And you are seeing that rotation back into the leaders that we've been seeing for a while,
semiconductors. You see a lot of profits being taken on oil. I mean, oil went from up 15,
20% to down right on the day, which is pretty crazy to see.
And then you saw a massive rotation with the Qs outperforming today, which is usually what we have not been seeing lately.
We've seen the Qs underperforming.
So it is good to see that risk gone back in the market.
Even like stocks that were...
There were some stocks that were actually lower when we started this fall pullback that are a lot higher today, even though we're still a ways away from the all-time high.
And one stock that I actually, I mean, I did open in the Ampex position last week,
and I'm still holding on to it.
I'm sorry, Ampheus.
So I'm still long that stock, and I did open the position in Marvell Technology this morning.
So just going to be holding onto that one.
But I mean, the market has every reason to go down.
It just can't stay down.
Every time we go down to near the 200-day moving average, we recover.
And I was even messaging you last night,
like we literally bounced just a couple of ticks away
from the 200-day moving average on SPY overnight.
And since then, we're up like 2%, 3%. It's crazy how much flow there is in the market,
even at the worst time as possible. So it's just hard to be bearish if this keeps happening.
And there will be a time when it's going to stick the landing where it drops and stays down, but
it's just not happening. And you already have
a sequence of events that's beginning to sound like we already got the largest escalation of
the entire war. So VIX was at 35 this morning. It was above 35. And now we're down to 25 VIX.
And we all thought the 28 was a high end VIX, but you'd have to have a catastrophic event to top 35
in the VIX. I can say there's a higher probability that we saw the top in VIX, or at least a
local top in the VIX for now. But that doesn't mean that we can move lower without topping
the VIX, right? So we can certainly move lower because the VIX is based off the 30-day volatility
of the S&P 500, implied volatility of it. So that would mean
that unless people buy that much in puts where the IV spikes up that high, and there's obviously
a lot more grease involved in that, then the market could still drift lower, lower than where
it was last night. And we've seen that happen over and over again. So it's tough to say like
which direction we're going to go in, but whatever you're seeing in the market today definitely is
like a flipping of the script.
Like you, people were diving back into what's been working.
Even the optics sector and semi-denters was hitting near all-time high,
especially AOI and a lot of other companies.
And Marvell closed at its highest level after their earnings.
And honestly, it doesn't look like
I need to be buying any puts or hedges right now,
especially what Will was saying.
You're going to be paying a massive premium if you buy out of the money puts right now.
And you need a fast move to the downside in order to capitalize off of that.
I was looking at USO puts this morning, and it was just outrageously expensive for anything
that was within $10 out of the money
for anything that expired on Wednesday.
And if we go further than that, the premium was insane.
Unless you're shorting straight shares of USO, you're shorting crude oil contracts,
it's very difficult to find protection in what could pull back the most.
Unless, of course, you buy in-the in the money puts that expire months from now.
Because if you're going to do that,
then you obviously want to hedge your portfolio in size
if that's going to be what you're going to do.
But right now, we've always been opening down
and closing higher.
And it's, I don't know, it doesn't sound like
it's a market where I want to ride a downward trend
because we can never get confirmation
of a downward trend day in day out.
So I mean, we'll see.
We'll see.
And I mean, I'm kind of surprised that Metaflow trading down here to be honest, a lot of ad
tech has been weak lately, besides that, of course, so going to continue to be pretty
bullish by default on the market.
Like there's no reason to be all out bearish.
But at the same time, like I'm not trying to press
like anything crazy to the upside
because we don't know what's going to happen tomorrow.
We like, we literally don't know.
So better to be cautious than not.
And as some famous traders say,
you know, it's better to have wished you were in a trade
than being one wish you were not.
Because there's many times that we've all experienced wished you were in a trade than being one wish you were not. Because there's time, there's many times we've all experienced where you were in a trade and
you're hoping that you never got in it in the first place. And it's you're way better off to
not be losing money and not be making money rather than just losing money. Like I would
choose the former regardless. And that involves sitting in your hands, which is
list and that involves sitting your hands which is pretty the hard one of the hardest things to do
one of the hardest things to do, surprisingly.
surprisingly great thoughts from the current weekly champion mr sam formerly known as sam
solid sam badawi uh the only thought i'll throw in is uh when you trade in a range for a long time
sometimes you need something that like pulls that rubber band one direction so you can snap back the other direction. I'm wondering, I'm not ready to say fully that
this is it, but this does have the makings of that potential. And the other thing being if tech
needs to lead. So if tech starts to lead, this is the little pullback, the little wall of worry that
we need to climb back in. Here we go. But at the same time, we're just right back to where we were.
There's still, you know, negative jobs report from last week,
some stuff like that.
So I think it'll be interesting.
Let's jump into the picks here as we come to the top of the hour.
Sam, you won, so you're up first.
So I'm coming right back over to you,
and then we'll work our way through the panel.
Two picks from everyone from tomorrow's open
through next Monday's close.
Okay, so whatever the two times Marvell is, picks from everyone from tomorrow's open through next Monday's close. Okay.
So whatever the two times Marvell is, I will pick that one.
I forget.
I think it's MRLL or MVLL.
I forget what it is, but I'm going to default to whatever Leverage Shares has.
If not, you know, whatever, whatever something else has.
I think it's MVLL.
MVLL, I think, is the Granite Shares one.
Granite Shares?
Set out.
All right, all right.
I'll mention Grand Shares.
I mean, I would prefer Leverage Shares, but Marvell two times.
MVLL.
I see Leverage Shares has direction. Well, leverage shares has direction.
Well, you pick, sir.
No leverage shares.
Best expense ratio in the game,
by the way.
Yeah, dude.
I'm all for that, too.
Yeah, just do MVLL.
I can't find it.
All right.
I'll look for a lot of the next person picks.
And I'm also going to...
I kind of want to short roll a little because it's a week from now.
But I kind of don't want to because I'm being flat.
We have a massive rally.
That's an opportunity cost right there.
I'm probably going to go...
I'm probably going to do AMPX again
just for the hell of it.
Alright, so
2x leverage Marvell through ticker
MVLL
and then AMPX Ampryus
Technologies running it back
after a 50% win last
you know
normally something's up
50% I'd be like but this move is explosive.
Yeah, I mean, it's, if you listen to earnings call, you read this stuff.
It was just, I was just blown away.
Like there was a thesis behind this when I got in it, but they released their earnings
early and I was just like, oh wow.
Because usually when they release earnings early, it's because there's not really that
good things to say.
But in this case, the complete opposite.
It was really good earnings.
And it's still a mid cap, which is great to see.
All right.
There you have it.
Current champion, Sam Solid.
30% return last week.
Just in the past.
I wish.
I wish the portfolio was up that much.
I wish the portfolio was up 30%.
You're just full ported AMPX. I don't know what you're doing.
You're texting me at 1 a.m. instead.
All right, there it is from Sam.
Second place was Vegas.
Vegas, which two stocks are you looking at for this week?
Yeah, well, you know, I always like to pick my same ones,
but I'm changing up a little.
I think I'm going to pick Tesla.
So we'll do TSLL.
I really liked the way it was trading today.
And taking a look at this.
Those previous month lows, Vegas.
You like it?
You like it?
We swept them out.
I like that area a lot.
And I'm liking this bullish engulfing candle here.
So it looks really good on Tesla.
And also, we got support at the 200 day and looking good here.
So I'm going to pick TSLL and the other one that I'm liking,
which to me looks like a breakout is setting up.
I mean, the stock did have quite a move today, about over 10.5%.
I'm going to pick Circle, but I'm going to pick the ETF CRCA.
I'm taking a look at this chart,
and I've got to be honest with you,
I see a breakup coming up on the chart,
so we could have more action on this on Circle.
Traded today, went all the way up to $112.66.
Definitely a lot of momentum here on Circles. i think we'll see a lot more action here
on for continuation so i'm gonna pick those two and see how they play out but i'm liking both of
them actually so i'll pick those in my top two i mean i have a whole bunch of my ones but this is
for the for this purpose those are the top two, Circle and Tesla.
There you have it.
I love stocks.
It's Miss Vegas on the show,
second place finisher last week.
TSLL, 2X Leverage Long Tesla,
and CRCA is a ProShares Ultra Circle ETF,
bullish on CRCL via CRCA. Vegas, I'm kind of with you. I looked around and I was like,
there are a lot of things. Some weeks I get on here and I'm like, I have no idea what I want to pick. And I just have to like find something that feels semi-safe almost.
And then other weeks I come on here and I'm like, how do I narrow down the list when I look at,
you know, a possible rising tide for all boats here. I don't know. We'll see what happens.
But there is second place, TSLL, CR, CA.
I came in third place even though I had a negative return last week,
but I'll go ahead and go next here.
I'm going to go DELL, D-E-L-L.
No leverage or anything, just straight up DELL.
If you look, it's got a flag built here after the bigger earnings gap up.
It's built a nice bull flag on the daily. It's held in even in the week tape. And then today,
the low day, daily nine EMA, it's also sitting right on the highs from back in December. So I
like the chart structure there. I like the pullback and I like how strong it has been relatively
after its earnings report with even the market being a little dicey.
So first pick Dell, D-E-L-L. The second one, me and Will were on stream today and I pulled up this
chart. It's AMD is the chart. If you look at AMD, I really wanted it to come down and fill the gap
and come lower. It just doesn't seem to want to come lower. The 200-day caught up to it, and you had an
explosive move, bullish engulfing, which there's a lot of bullish engulfing out there, but this is
a nice bullish engulfing full-body candle with the exact low of day on the 200-day. So I'm looking
for some follow-through on AMD, and I'm going to take AMDG from Leverage Shares, 2X Leverage,
long AMD. There's my two picks for the week,
and we'll go over to Nick Drendel next.
Nick, how are you?
Doing good, doing good.
I think this market is a coin flip,
so I'm just going to go one long, one short.
The long I'm going to go with is NBIS.
I love how long this base has been forming.
We've been putting in higher lows since that ugly close under the 200-day moving average on February 5th, followed by a gap up.
One of my favorite things to see on a chart is an ugly close under a key moving average, followed by a gap up.
And now today, undercut a support gap, closed right at the high of the day.
Really nice big coil here.
So if we do end up breaking to the upside, this is a name that I can see kind of leading the market higher. So we'll go NBIS on the long side. And then I'm not as confident that the
oil prices are just going to crash for the rest of the week. I think there's going to be just a ton of volatility.
And in that case, I'm going to short DRIP, which is the two times leveraged inverse ETF.
I kind of learned this from the silver parabolic move, where even if there's any type of volatility and the quantums when they blew up, any type of volatility on inverse
or double leveraged inverse ETFs just decays the price like crazy.
So if I'm expecting more volatility and less directionless action, then shorting DRIP could
get you some alpha there.
And then if oil does go higher, like itself, it will go lower.
All right.
So Nick Drendel with MBIS, Nebius, long side and short drip, DRIP, which is, that's the
drip is the, that's the bearish one.
And so you're shorting the bearish one looking, it's a bullish bet, correct?
I'm following along here.
It's more of a bet on volatility staying elevated than anything.
Like I don't really know where the areas of oil is going to be,
but the volatility on these things decayed in like crazy.
All right.
I like it.
It could be very interesting.
I mean, who really knows with oil?
What a crazy move.
It was 32% from the high of last night to the low of today.
32% move is insane on something as big as a commodity like oil.
And you hear so many like, like oil. And, you know,
you hear so many different pieces on it. Um, you know, one side or the other, like, Hey, well,
you know, the damage has already been done. It's not been done, whatever. Um, boy,
are we down another, did oil just gap down right here on the futures open?
Uh, no, it's about where it closed at the end of the day.
Never mind.
All right.
It's because the afternoon settled.
Sorry, just figured it out.
Perfect.
All right.
Nick Drendel, appreciate you.
Sad that I missed you guys' thoughts.
The good thing is this space is recorded,
so I can actually listen back
and catch the thoughts from all my friends that I missed.
You should be following all of these great speakers up here
if you're in the audience.
Make sure you go in, give them a follow, check out all the great things that they do
on and off this app, all the great spaces, conversations are a part of trading education,
all the above. We appreciate all that. Chris, we go over to you next and then we'll hit Will
and Jordan and we'll finish our picks up. Chris, what are you looking at today?
I'm looking at Adobe and I'm looking at Sentinel One. I think both of them have earnings
coming up this week. I'm particularly long on Adobe. I think that they're probably going to
show growth in their Firefly credit segment. So that should lead to a little bit more bullishness
where people just assume that Adobe is going down. I think earnings is going to prove that they're a lot more stickier than people think.
There's been some, I don't want to say big accounts that have been posting about Adobe,
how it could be a value play.
So I think there could be some more interest in it.
So I think Adobe is a great recovery play and I think this earnings is going to do well
for them. Sentinel
1, I'm kind of debating whether I should do Sentinel. You know what? I'll do Rubrik instead.
I'll go with Rubrik. Mainly because Sam likes Rubrik. So I trust Sam. So yeah.
Always great to have a scapegoat to get you out of a tough situation if it doesn't work out. But
then you can still pick the victory lap either way, right?
If it works, I did it.
If it doesn't work, Sam did it.
Exactly.
I knew exactly what you were doing.
That's a smart guy.
That's next level thinking right there.
It's like Trump with the Biden economy.
Yeah, exactly.
This is the Biden market until it's a Trump market, right?
I mean, come on.
Interesting picks there.
Adobe and Rubik, did they report this week as well, I think?
The same day?
Yeah, Thursday.
Adobe and Rubik, both reporting on Thursday.
Adobe is an interesting one because it's like so many people still use Adobe for all their PDFs
and all the small businesses across the country.
You know, a lot of people still use it.
And yet it just came off of like 2020 COVID lows. And it has just this bad narrative that it's dead.
Their AI was kind of, I don't know, I'm waiting for an earnings report. And maybe it's this one,
maybe it's this one, Chris, maybe Thursday, where they kind of just turn the narrative around.
Finally, I feel like that's all that's missing. I feel like it is seem like it is
a value play down here. Even if they don't necessarily change the entire narrative,
it's so low at this point that the share buybacks are going to be significantly more meaningful than
they've ever been. Right. So you look at the if you look at a lot of people, what they'll do is
they'll pay attention to share buybacks. But if you're buying back your shares at like 30 PE, it doesn't really help a lot.
But when you're looking at Adobe, they've got close to, I think, $10 billion in cash flow that they can deploy towards share buybacks.
And this is a $100 billion company, which means they can take out about 10% of their float.
And the thing is, a lot of other SaaS names that are trading at value levels,
their growth rate is slowing down. Adobe's is kind of maintaining that 10% growth rate. So I think
it won't take much for the market to re-rate Adobe and the sentiment around it. So I think
Adobe got sold off significantly because generative AI and people think, oh, because we can just type in prompts and generate images that there's no need for Photoshop anymore.
And it's like, no, if you look at like most enterprises, they use this as a form of, you know, like 10% value capture that captures like majority of the value.
captures like majority of the value. So as an example, if I say draw, you know, like I'm doing
an ad campaign and I say draw a tree. Yeah, the generative AI is going to give you a tree,
but let's say I need product branding and placement and I need specific things, then you're actually
going to need to bring that back into the Adobe ecosystem and edit it to the final point. So the
thing is people think that the most of the value was generated by the LLM,
where in reality most of the value
was actually generated by that software program
that gets you to that final finished product.
And I think the product that Adobe has is just so sticky.
There's two camps, of course. There are people that think that Adobe has, it's just so sticky. There's two camps, of course. There are people
that think that Adobe is like an old company, that they're a mature business, and there's other
options out there like Canva and everything else. But from what I'm seeing, their market share is
not necessarily deteriorating to the level that people are thinking. So like I said, I think it's
a great value play. And I think earnings is going to prove out that,
hey, I think the naysayers were a bit wrong.
I'm with you.
I'd love to see that name turn around.
And I just, I know how many people still use it.
So many people still use it.
It's like it just has died and gone away.
But we'll see.
I appreciate that. Chris, that is ADBE, Adobe and RBRK rubric from Mr. Chris Patel. Will, let's go over and get
your two picks next and then we'll finish out with Jordan. Alrighty. I'm going to go with a
couple of leverage shares, shout out over there. And the first one I'm going to do is AALG, which is double long American Airlines.
And the thesis on that's going to be if oil does pull back and maybe there's some further de-escalation that maybe the airlines get a big bid as we saw today.
And then the second one I'm going to do is PLTG
short, which is Palantir
to the short side.
I'm going to do that one short and long
A-A-L-G.
What? Short Palantir?
What?
I was wondering if Chris was going to get
excited about that one.
It's
PLTG.
That's 2X Leverage Palantir short.
And your other one was a bet on 2X Leverage American Airlines, AALG, upside.
That's actually not a bad thought.
I don't know.
And hey, Palantir right now is down $2 after hours, by the way.
Well, Trump is talking live and he's saying.
Go ahead. Go ahead, Sam. dollars after hours by the way i think trump is talking live and he's saying go ahead go ahead sam i was gonna say i think that's that's a mean version play for instead of shorting oil you're shorting pounds here he's like a premium it just got from
the war and a de-escalation that's smart yeah that's smart i thought about the airlines today
when oil started crashing well uh yeah i'm glad we were we were a little busy during that uh chaos
but you know what thank god we were when we were you know like we were watching oil on stream like
pretty actively there and it honestly like probably helped us catch that bid in the futures on the uh
on the equity side yeah i heard the i heard the headline come across in my other ear and just
started shouting it and just jumping on the bid on NQ.
I know you guys were looking at oil over there.
That is an interesting way.
If anybody is interested there, any of these picks given out tonight, make sure that you do your due diligence.
You're going in using these as watch list type of items, launch points for ideas and trades.
Of course, I'll just dive into any of these blindly.
But an interesting idea there just to highlight kind of the thought process.
These airlines getting beat up because oil prices are skyrocketing.
If oil is coming down, if we get continued commentary,
maybe you see kind of the overreaction bounce back in some of these airlines.
So interesting thought there.
And then, of course, Palantir bid up on the other side coming back down.
It's kind of a double play there back to the middle.
I kind of like that.
The cruise lines as well.
The cruise lines are exposed to oil.
Like if you look at the reversal on Royal Caribbean today, it was insane.
Same thing with Norwegian and Carnival.
So, yeah.
Yeah, NCLH's daily candle is crazy.
Absolutely crazy.
$18.50 of the low closed over $20.
Wow, that is a big candle.
I didn't look at RCL today.
I did look at NCLH.
Oh, wow.
RCL, that is a huge candle.
What a range.
Trump is calling this a success already.
I feel like he's already claiming it's a victory.
What's interesting about the cruise lines is that they're all hedged.
Like their front month contracts, they're all hedged.
So it's not going to impact their earnings for the next at least two quarters.
So if this was a prolonged situation, then yeah, it could impact their earnings.
But if this is one of those things where the Trump administration says there's going to be a short-term issue, then the cruise lines will get re-rated higher.
It's just interesting, Trump saying that oil prices have risen less than he expected, and then he also stated that we're going to take further action on Iran.
So, I don't know, you kind of got some mixed messaging in there, do with what you will, but then he's saying it's going to end soon.
Major risk on Iran has ended for three days.
I heard him say that a while ago.
And it's like, okay, we were just like giving a little breather here.
He said, we can leave it here or yet we're going to go further.
So I don't know, a little mixed messaging.
Who knows?
It's going to be, I think you get too excited. He is going, he's the agent of chaos.
The playbook is always mixed messaging. Say one thing, then do the opposite.
Do the opposite, then say something else. It's all part of the
strategy that we've seen. The max leverage.
Max leverage, as he calls it. Yeah, there you go. He is speaking
live right now, holding his press conference, so I've got that going on
in my other ear. If anything real crazy comes out, I'll let you know, futures aren't doing a whole lot at the moment
here. But it will be interesting. We're not out of the woods yet by any means, but maybe some
progress. Maybe the peak fear calms down a little bit from here. But who knows? We'll see what
happens. Jordan, our great, lovely co-host up here on these Monday night shows.
Jordan, I know you liked Tesla, but I mean, I guess you could go with a different version of Tesla because Vegas jumped in there on that one.
I know you liked that chart today.
That was the first thing you said to me, I think, when I saw you the second.
We're doing it a little different than the normal.
Although I think TQQ and long and SQQ short is a decent move here.
I'm going to try and capture some more.
And I saw, okay, we saw that pop on HIMS,
which this might be detrimental if it goes against me,
but I don't think that that's just going to hold that gap fill and run personally.
So I'm going to do a short 2X leverage HIMS me but i don't think that that's just gonna hold that gap fill and run personally so i'm gonna do
a short 2x leverage hymns after popping 50 or whatever it did um we're gonna roll with that
that's h-i-n-z i think is 2x so we'll do short that and then yeah i'm going long tslg i love
tesla here sweeping those what is this uh it's the november lows from 2025 that
we're trading into just been chopping in this bigger time frame range uh but i i love it down
here i think a lot of people that are probably long looking at this or that have been long you
know looking at this as some sort of higher time frame bull flag where they likely putting their
stops probably at these lows that we just ran through. And then, boom, we just rip right back to the upside after sweeping those lows.
So I'm super interested to see those hold.
I would love to see us get some real structure to the upside now and momentum.
But we'll see if that actually steps in.
So I'm going to get a long TSLG from leverage shares there, the 2X.
We'll roll with that.
I'm hoping HIMS can come in and not explode to the upside.
But that gap is
just massive and i don't know i i'm not a lover of hymns personally um and so i think it could
come in a little bit maybe get a half gap fill or something the percentage there is beautiful so i
just want to try and get that percentage if i can but yeah that's what i'm gonna go with one more um
one i'll just throw this out there. This
is more of a longer term idea for everybody, but I think that there is going to be a play
in the bond market is, again, we had that, I know it got overshadowed last week, but
that big non-farm payrolls miss of 92,000, I do think with fear and anything else, or maybe
potential slower growth because of a
spike in oil or whatever else happens with the war i think tlt could be a good play to the upside
bonds were getting absolutely murdered the last two days to the downside and yields are spiking
due to inflation fears but if you look today as oil came off tlt got a huge bid and so did the
long bonds as well across the whole curve and rates came
down pretty dramatically.
So I think the other plan there, maybe in the swing, if you're looking to balance out
your portfolio, I think that maybe the long bonds might be in play.
So you're going to say TMFf or what did you just call him you're gonna suggest the play
you're gonna go yeah you're gonna go on tmf man let's go let's go um listen i gotta it's ryan
knows i got a big big bond futures position on already so i don't need tMS. I think he is good where he's at on that.
You know, the bonds is very interesting.
Chris, while I have you here,
and I know we're about to wrap up the space anytime,
so if anybody's got to go, obviously feel free.
But while we have you here,
I know that you kind of follow that space a little bit closer,
at least than I do.
The HIMSS Nova Nordisk news,
did you have any take around that?
Because my just, I would say, surface level only,
kind of uneducated, just thoughts through it,
was, okay, maybe it gives a reason for HIMSS
to, like, for shorts to cover.
You get a big pop and it's crazy oversold.
But the bigger picture is that, to me,
this sounds like a better headline for Nova Nordisk,
who also needs something positive to happen for them with the distribution side of things and in hymns to me it just doesn't
seem like this is like a super sticky thing and i don't think it changes anything novo nordisk's
problem is that smeglutide is not nearly as effective as trisepatide so if you think about
the weekly scripts that are coming along, the weekly scripts
for Novo Nordisk with their main products, Megalatide, is going on the decline, right?
On the other side, you're having more people go on to trizapatide, which is Manjaro or Zepbound,
which is the other thing. And so you've got two major problems coming Novo Nordisk's way,
And so you've got two major problems coming Novo Nordis way and then also towards him's way.
Novo Nordis was problem is that number one, they have an inferior product compared to the other to the other GLP one.
The other thing is Novo did release an oral version of their medication, which should theoretically take some market share and it
should do well. But then you've got Eli Lilly who has their own oral version coming out as well.
So while access is important, efficacy is probably more important. So I would say that
for Novo Nordisk, they're trading at significant deep value discounts. And one of the
reasons why Novo partnered with HIMSS is because at this point, Novo is trying to get their product
out as broadly as possible to basically keep up their volumes. So I don't think that this is like a match made in heaven scenario. So just FYI.
So I think Smeglutide is losing its marketability and Novo Nordisk has to figure out how to sell the product.
And one of the ways that you can do it, of course, is you can't go back and make it more effective.
But you can broaden out as much reach as possible so that the option for a lot of people becomes
available. So if you look at it from a pricing standpoint, Novo Nordisk is, well, at least
smeglutide is not in the greatest of shape. Now, there is something that's coming along that could
be a massive, massive game changer. And you is, and you'll see a lot of like bodybuilders
and influencers, they'll talk about this.
It's a peptide called retruotide
and it's a triple acting GLP-1 combo with glucagon.
And so one of the challenges that you have
with a regular GLP-1 is that, you know,
it suppresses your appetite
and what that tends to do is that people don't eat and of course if you don't eat,
then the body breaks down some of the fats, but it also breaks down muscle.
And so the weight loss effect is there, but you're also losing muscle.
With retruotide, because the glucagon component, even people who don't necessarily work out much,
they don't lose a lot of muscle mass.
They actually lose straight up fat, which is kind of insane. And they've actually had to
discontinue people because they've lost too much weight. So in terms of like super effectiveness,
Ritruotide could be coming in in probably, I think they're in phase three right now. So it
could be coming in in like 2027 and whatnot, but that would be a kill shot for Novo Nordisk's main franchise.
So long term, Novo's got some issues that they're going to have to deal with.
They're clearly in like value territory right now because they're just trading so low.
But if their core franchise, which is Smeglutide,
franchise, which is Smeglutide, you know, takes, keeps going down in terms of market share, then
keeps going down in terms of market share,
it's almost like you're buying a slow, well, a fast melting ice cube. Does that make sense?
Kind of, you know, where we're on the other side, Eli Lilly is sort of like on the up and up. And
then of course, you've got pressure from CMS through the Trump administration to keep prices
lower as well to maximize the amount of access that people have.
So you're seeing like before,
if you tried to get Manjaro or any of these GLP ones,
they were like $1,000 a pop.
Now, because the Trump administration has kind of forced their hand,
they've all been able to lower their prices down.
And then, of course, the compounders have been able to kind of compound
and get things done off-brand.
So there's a whole lot of moving parts to it.
There could be a catalyst for HIMSS if there's some regulations around peptides that basically allow for more access to peptides.
And I'm sure that people on X have kind of been mentioning that.
Like I said, I can't really say whether or not that's going to be a big uplift,
but I can say the one to watch for is retruotide because I think that could theoretically be like
one of the biggest game changers of healthcare outcomes that we've ever seen in the history of obesity control and obesity care.
Do you guys know that influencer dude, Clavicular?
You know who he's out there?
Why, of course.
That's his brother.
So that dude put his girlfriend on retruotide.
And if you look at her, her face has shrunk significantly.
And she's like looking younger. Absolutely. Retruotide's amazing. Phenomen her, her face has shrunk significantly and she's like looking
young. Absolutely. Retruotide is amazing. Phenomenal. There you go. Phenomenal.
Like if I needed it, I would take it. The only reason I don't take it is because I'm so skinny
already. But Jordan puts it in his coffee every morning. Yeah, retruotide is phenomenal.
Now, the thing is, the current version that these people are taking, they're
quote unquote, for research purposes only. But once it gets into a situation where it gets
approved by the FDA and everything else, of course, then it becomes more difficult for
these compounding pharmacies and everything else to produce it. That is the situation right now.
Yeah. So I think right now, people may or may not know that this is coming
along but in terms of effectiveness i've never seen a drug more effective when it came to obesity
care so couldn't agree couldn't agree mark
and the biggest benefit to it and like i said biggest, biggest benefit is there's no muscle loss.
Like with the current version that you have, you've got muscle loss.
This one, you don't lose muscle, which is insane.
So, yeah.
Well, I just want to say thank you.
Somebody out there is probably going, well, that was a real deep dive into some stuff.
I was super interested in that, Chris.
So even if that was selfish just for me, maybe a couple others enjoyed it as well.
But I really appreciate you sharing all that with me because I'm not researched enough there.
But one thing I've done well on this app is find people like Chris, find people like Sam,
Jordan, Vegas, Nick Drindle that was up here earlier, multiple other people that are really
smart and really smart and definitely in certain areas that I am not as well researched in.
So I lean heavily on that
and it's helped me become a better investor,
a better trader, all the above.
That's what I will recommend to anyone
that you should use.
You don't have to be the smartest person in the room.
Just put smart people in the room with you.
So big shout out to that.
Thank you, Chris.
I appreciate you.
Appreciate Sam, Vegas, Taj behind the Wolf account,
holding it down in that first half hour for us today. Big shout out over to him. And some of our friends
down in the audience, I saw the White House Quant was in here, Matt, hanging out, listening in. He
follows Chris and Sam around, I think, just to get more alpha so he can give it to the White House.
I think that's how it works, right? Is that how it works, Sam?
Yeah, he's White House Quant.
White House Quant. Big shout out. I saw that's how it works, right? Is that how it works, Sam? Yeah, he's White House Quant.
White House Quant. Big shout out. I saw a bunch of other friends down there, Bullish Bear,
Big Murph, some other friends of mine. Thanks for tuning in. Ochoa, I see you down there as well.
A lot of great friends in the crowd tonight. Appreciate everyone hanging out here. Boy, I'm tired. This hour change thing sucks. If we can get the White House the white house quant uh quant to get going on taj
you've uh you're dealing with that too i know jordan was excited because he just came back to
you i got too much time in the morning now it's nice jordan's back to norway jordan jordan you
don't count because you're over there taj are you uh are you central time or eastern time did you
did you go ahead of the market?
Yeah, we're at Central now.
So yeah, because we didn't change.
The good thing is, though, that I was thinking, I was like, oh, man, does this mean I have to get up to 6 o'clock if I want to tune into Eva's European show?
I'm like, that's a little too early for me.
But the time has adjusted appropriately.
So yeah, you don't have to wake up at the crack of dawn now to go tune into that wolf europe show so that's really good at least for three more weeks whenever they uh europe
changes their clocks for whatever reason they're they're three weeks uh three weeks behind uh when
they change their clocks back so uh be aware of that obviously uh for me the time doesn't change
so i go from central time normally to now I'm in mountain time for the next...
I go backwards to time zone.
So now I had to wake up earlier.
But either way, Chris, can you get rid of it for me?
Did anyone notice one of the biggest changes that's been happening is
younger people are not drinking and smoking anymore?
There is a ton of research that um
that like they're all they're all just 30 and under chris they're all 30 and under is not uh
is not they're not drinking like alcohol cells are like super far down yeah man it's in diageo
was like multi-decade lows it's crazy i mean i mean, when I was in college, I was an alcoholic.
So, you know, but I don't see it.
You should be trying to ascend instead, bro.
Ascend.
Bro, you got it.
They're spending their money on peptides instead of beer.
And OnlyFans.
Don't forget about OnlyFans.
Oh, boy.
Look, it's Zim, CBD, and OnlyFans.
Yeah.
And a little peptide.
No more. Don't worry. I'm trying to keep Modelo in business.
So long constellation, Brantz.
All right.
What a great show.
I'm actually going to listen back to the first part
because I want to hear some of the market sentiment thoughts
from the panel up here.
If you missed any of the show, it is recorded.
You can do the same.
You don't have to.
I'm going to do it because that's how I get smarter and more informed. All right. Big shout
out to the whole crew. Hope everyone has a great rest of their Monday afternoon, evening, night,
maybe Tuesday morning. If you're on the other side of the world, wherever you're at tuning in,
we appreciate you. Full schedule as always is pinned on that Wolf Financial main page. You
can see all the different spaces,
live streams that we've got.
That's everything we can fit on the schedule.
We've also got Wolf Bitcoin channel, Wolf Crypto,
several other channels out there all under our umbrella,
bringing you all kinds of information.
Make sure you go to the Wolf Financial YouTube page as well.
Sam, who was just here, just slid out.
He hosts the show, The Solid Report, over there.
That one, we don't even have room for that on our schedule. But that's still happening every day.
Actually, tune in sometimes if it's slow in the afternoon. The market's not going too crazy. I
tune in and just listen to him in my other ear. All right, guys. Trump is done talking, by the way.
So got that part out of the way the press conference is done. And hopefully we don't
get any more comments. Maybe we get some peace for the next few hours.
We'll see how the night plays out.
And we'll be live tomorrow morning.
First thing in the morning,
Eva is going to open up that European space
that you heard Taj talk about there.
And what's that?
It's at 8 a.m. Eastern.
EDT, fun fact of the day.
If you are in Eastern time,
you are currently in EDT.
If you're in the United States,
Eastern daylight time, you are not in EST, Eastern Standard you're in the United States, Eastern Daylight Time,
you are not in EST, Eastern Standard Time.
That's where I think Taj is, maybe.
Yep, that is the case.
Most of all don't know that.
Yeah, yep, yep, 100%.
I learned that actually thanks to Spaces, believe it or not.
Yeah, I figured it out last year.
I was like, wait a second.
I'm trying to schedule stuff.
I'm still central standard time.
Central daylight time is different than that.
Fun fact of the day.
All right, Tosh, appreciate you.
Really appreciate that.
Likewise, my friend and everyone else,
Jordan, the rest of the crew,
everyone's on listener on my screen right now.
I'm afraid to touch anything.
So I won't call anyone else off by name
because I don't know who's still on stage.
Really appreciate every one of you.
Of course, all of the audience.
This is Recorded Space and I'm closing out in just a second. Thank you.
